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000
FXUS66 KPDT 031735 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1035 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR RECORD
HEAT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HEAT ADVISORIES CONTINUING
AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS ITSELF ON THE REGION. WILL SEE A
SLIGHT COOLING OF A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CASCADES AS SOME MARINE AIR SEEPS AND SPILLS OVER THE CASCADES
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO CREATE SOME LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OVERNIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH CANADA. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP 3 TO 6 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. STILL
HOT THOUGH WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 IN THE LOWER BASIN FOR THE FOURTH
OF JULY AND IN THE 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT KRDM AND KBDN
SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE 10-20 AT KDLS...AND 10-15 IN THE AFTERNOON AT KRDM AND
KBDN. WEBER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND CENTRAL OREGON...INCLUDING THE KITTITAS VALLEY,
YAKIMA VALLEY, AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE APPEAR ON TRACK.
HOWEVER...THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL AS WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY GUSTY BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO EASILY CARRY A
FIRE...ESPECIALLY IN THE DRY GRASSY AREAS.  UNFORTUNATELY...FOURTH
OF JULY FIREWORKS CONTRIBUTE TO THE PROBLEM.  ALL RED FLAG WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FIRE ZONE
675 THAT COVERS THE HANFORD DISTRICT AND YAKIMA VALLEY.  IN THIS
AREA...SURFACE WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.  THE NEXT FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AFTER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT IS MINIMAL AND ONLY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY-TUESDAY.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
MARINE AIR WILL FILTER THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE CASCADES.
IN EASTERN AREAS IT WILL REMAIN VERY HOT TODAY WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THAT AREA. ON SATURDAY WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ALSO IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL VERY WARM AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY LOWER
SLIGHTLY. EXPECT HIGHS AGAIN TODAY TO RANGE FROM 100-107 OVER THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS WITH 80S AND 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE
VERY WARM TO HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. THE
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS AND
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING AND
THEN END. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EARLY EVENING WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FURTHER COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE WESTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PULL COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE CWA. 88

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON EACH DAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE AREA. DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
OTHER AREAS. MODELS HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING FURTHER INLAND
EACH DAY...BUT STILL INDICATE THAT A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CUT OFF
MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY NORTH OF DESCHUTES...CROOK...AND GRANT
COUNTIES.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS.  COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 105  66 100  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALW 105  72 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 107  69 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 101  68  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 105  69 101  66 /   0   0   0   0
ELN 102  71 100  63 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  99  55  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  98  55  94  59 /   0   0   0   0
GCD 101  58  98  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLS 101  69  99  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ610-640-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ639.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89




000
FXUS66 KPDT 031735 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1035 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR RECORD
HEAT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HEAT ADVISORIES CONTINUING
AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS ITSELF ON THE REGION. WILL SEE A
SLIGHT COOLING OF A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CASCADES AS SOME MARINE AIR SEEPS AND SPILLS OVER THE CASCADES
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO CREATE SOME LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OVERNIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH CANADA. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP 3 TO 6 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. STILL
HOT THOUGH WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 IN THE LOWER BASIN FOR THE FOURTH
OF JULY AND IN THE 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT KRDM AND KBDN
SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE 10-20 AT KDLS...AND 10-15 IN THE AFTERNOON AT KRDM AND
KBDN. WEBER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND CENTRAL OREGON...INCLUDING THE KITTITAS VALLEY,
YAKIMA VALLEY, AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE APPEAR ON TRACK.
HOWEVER...THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL AS WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY GUSTY BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO EASILY CARRY A
FIRE...ESPECIALLY IN THE DRY GRASSY AREAS.  UNFORTUNATELY...FOURTH
OF JULY FIREWORKS CONTRIBUTE TO THE PROBLEM.  ALL RED FLAG WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FIRE ZONE
675 THAT COVERS THE HANFORD DISTRICT AND YAKIMA VALLEY.  IN THIS
AREA...SURFACE WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.  THE NEXT FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AFTER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT IS MINIMAL AND ONLY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY-TUESDAY.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
MARINE AIR WILL FILTER THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE CASCADES.
IN EASTERN AREAS IT WILL REMAIN VERY HOT TODAY WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THAT AREA. ON SATURDAY WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ALSO IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL VERY WARM AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY LOWER
SLIGHTLY. EXPECT HIGHS AGAIN TODAY TO RANGE FROM 100-107 OVER THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS WITH 80S AND 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE
VERY WARM TO HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. THE
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS AND
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING AND
THEN END. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EARLY EVENING WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FURTHER COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE WESTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PULL COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE CWA. 88

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON EACH DAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE AREA. DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
OTHER AREAS. MODELS HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING FURTHER INLAND
EACH DAY...BUT STILL INDICATE THAT A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CUT OFF
MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY NORTH OF DESCHUTES...CROOK...AND GRANT
COUNTIES.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS.  COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 105  66 100  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALW 105  72 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 107  69 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 101  68  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 105  69 101  66 /   0   0   0   0
ELN 102  71 100  63 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  99  55  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  98  55  94  59 /   0   0   0   0
GCD 101  58  98  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLS 101  69  99  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ610-640-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ639.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89



000
FXUS66 KPDT 031735 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1035 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR RECORD
HEAT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HEAT ADVISORIES CONTINUING
AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS ITSELF ON THE REGION. WILL SEE A
SLIGHT COOLING OF A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CASCADES AS SOME MARINE AIR SEEPS AND SPILLS OVER THE CASCADES
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO CREATE SOME LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OVERNIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH CANADA. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP 3 TO 6 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. STILL
HOT THOUGH WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 IN THE LOWER BASIN FOR THE FOURTH
OF JULY AND IN THE 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT KRDM AND KBDN
SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE 10-20 AT KDLS...AND 10-15 IN THE AFTERNOON AT KRDM AND
KBDN. WEBER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND CENTRAL OREGON...INCLUDING THE KITTITAS VALLEY,
YAKIMA VALLEY, AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE APPEAR ON TRACK.
HOWEVER...THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL AS WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY GUSTY BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO EASILY CARRY A
FIRE...ESPECIALLY IN THE DRY GRASSY AREAS.  UNFORTUNATELY...FOURTH
OF JULY FIREWORKS CONTRIBUTE TO THE PROBLEM.  ALL RED FLAG WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FIRE ZONE
675 THAT COVERS THE HANFORD DISTRICT AND YAKIMA VALLEY.  IN THIS
AREA...SURFACE WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.  THE NEXT FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AFTER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT IS MINIMAL AND ONLY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY-TUESDAY.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
MARINE AIR WILL FILTER THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE CASCADES.
IN EASTERN AREAS IT WILL REMAIN VERY HOT TODAY WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THAT AREA. ON SATURDAY WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ALSO IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL VERY WARM AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY LOWER
SLIGHTLY. EXPECT HIGHS AGAIN TODAY TO RANGE FROM 100-107 OVER THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS WITH 80S AND 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE
VERY WARM TO HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. THE
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS AND
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING AND
THEN END. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EARLY EVENING WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FURTHER COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE WESTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PULL COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE CWA. 88

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON EACH DAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE AREA. DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
OTHER AREAS. MODELS HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING FURTHER INLAND
EACH DAY...BUT STILL INDICATE THAT A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CUT OFF
MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY NORTH OF DESCHUTES...CROOK...AND GRANT
COUNTIES.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS.  COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 105  66 100  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALW 105  72 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 107  69 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 101  68  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 105  69 101  66 /   0   0   0   0
ELN 102  71 100  63 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  99  55  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  98  55  94  59 /   0   0   0   0
GCD 101  58  98  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLS 101  69  99  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ610-640-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ639.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89




000
FXUS66 KPDT 031735 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1035 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR RECORD
HEAT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HEAT ADVISORIES CONTINUING
AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS ITSELF ON THE REGION. WILL SEE A
SLIGHT COOLING OF A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CASCADES AS SOME MARINE AIR SEEPS AND SPILLS OVER THE CASCADES
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO CREATE SOME LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OVERNIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH CANADA. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP 3 TO 6 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. STILL
HOT THOUGH WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 IN THE LOWER BASIN FOR THE FOURTH
OF JULY AND IN THE 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT KRDM AND KBDN
SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE 10-20 AT KDLS...AND 10-15 IN THE AFTERNOON AT KRDM AND
KBDN. WEBER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND CENTRAL OREGON...INCLUDING THE KITTITAS VALLEY,
YAKIMA VALLEY, AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE APPEAR ON TRACK.
HOWEVER...THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL AS WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY GUSTY BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO EASILY CARRY A
FIRE...ESPECIALLY IN THE DRY GRASSY AREAS.  UNFORTUNATELY...FOURTH
OF JULY FIREWORKS CONTRIBUTE TO THE PROBLEM.  ALL RED FLAG WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FIRE ZONE
675 THAT COVERS THE HANFORD DISTRICT AND YAKIMA VALLEY.  IN THIS
AREA...SURFACE WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.  THE NEXT FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AFTER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT IS MINIMAL AND ONLY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY-TUESDAY.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
MARINE AIR WILL FILTER THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE CASCADES.
IN EASTERN AREAS IT WILL REMAIN VERY HOT TODAY WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THAT AREA. ON SATURDAY WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ALSO IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL VERY WARM AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY LOWER
SLIGHTLY. EXPECT HIGHS AGAIN TODAY TO RANGE FROM 100-107 OVER THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS WITH 80S AND 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE
VERY WARM TO HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. THE
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS AND
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING AND
THEN END. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EARLY EVENING WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FURTHER COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE WESTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PULL COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE CWA. 88

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON EACH DAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE AREA. DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
OTHER AREAS. MODELS HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING FURTHER INLAND
EACH DAY...BUT STILL INDICATE THAT A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CUT OFF
MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY NORTH OF DESCHUTES...CROOK...AND GRANT
COUNTIES.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS.  COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 105  66 100  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALW 105  72 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 107  69 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 101  68  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 105  69 101  66 /   0   0   0   0
ELN 102  71 100  63 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  99  55  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  98  55  94  59 /   0   0   0   0
GCD 101  58  98  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLS 101  69  99  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ610-640-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ639.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMFR 031602
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
902 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THIS MORNING, SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND CLOUDS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP
INTO MODOC AND SISKIYOU COUNTY THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS IN SOUTHERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AS WELL AS MODOC COUNTY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SISKIYOUS AND
POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AS WELL AS
EAST OF THE CASCADES INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE GFS HAS
BEEN SHOWING SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE BAND OF MOISTURE GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST
OREGON. HOWEVER, THE OTHER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT FOR SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER
OVERNIGHT SOLUTION BUT THINK THERE WILL BE CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND LIFTING NORTH SATURDAY MORNING. STRONGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN DUE TO
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN AS MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THESE STORMS INITIALLY ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND LIKELY WILL BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE BUT
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, STORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER MODOC AND PORTIONS OF
SISKIYOU COUNTY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. MODELS
INDICATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVES
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ALSO THE
SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT FRIDAY 3 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND...WITH STRATUS
AND FOG IN MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -SVEN/BPN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT IR IMAGE SHOWS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS SLOWLY ADVANCING NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN CAL. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THUS IT WILL NOT BE AS UNSTABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WE`LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR NORTHERN CAL, BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN CASCADES AND
SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH INTO NORTHERN CAL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF
THE CLOUDS BREAK UP ENOUGH AND THERE`S ENOUGH CLEARING, THEN WE
COULD SEE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM
EAST TO WEST BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS. EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THEN MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE
WEST TO NORTHWEST.

SHORTWAVES WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING ON SATURDAY, EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST
MODOC COUNTY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A STRONGER TRIGGER IN
NORTHERN CAL AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CAL AND
SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY.

ON SUNDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL. THE STEERING WINDS SUNDAY
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS, SO THEY WILL BE LOW
MOVERS AND WILL TEND TO DRIFT EAST TO NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL BE NEAR
TRIPLE DIGITS FOR PARTS OF THE ROUGE...ILLINOIS AND SHASTA VALLEY
AND KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY.

GUIDANCE, OVERALL, HAS INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT OVER THE
AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF OF THE COAST PUSHES EASTWARD, PUTTING US IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND, POSSIBLY, SOME WITH WETTING
PRECIPITATION. WE EXPECT THAT THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A
WELCOME COOL DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEST SIDE DOES RUN THE
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT, THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF THE SISKIYOUS AND FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD. -PETRUCELLI



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 031602
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
902 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THIS MORNING, SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND CLOUDS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP
INTO MODOC AND SISKIYOU COUNTY THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS IN SOUTHERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AS WELL AS MODOC COUNTY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SISKIYOUS AND
POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AS WELL AS
EAST OF THE CASCADES INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE GFS HAS
BEEN SHOWING SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE BAND OF MOISTURE GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST
OREGON. HOWEVER, THE OTHER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT FOR SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER
OVERNIGHT SOLUTION BUT THINK THERE WILL BE CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND LIFTING NORTH SATURDAY MORNING. STRONGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN DUE TO
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN AS MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THESE STORMS INITIALLY ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND LIKELY WILL BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE BUT
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, STORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER MODOC AND PORTIONS OF
SISKIYOU COUNTY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. MODELS
INDICATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVES
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ALSO THE
SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT FRIDAY 3 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND...WITH STRATUS
AND FOG IN MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -SVEN/BPN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT IR IMAGE SHOWS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS SLOWLY ADVANCING NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN CAL. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THUS IT WILL NOT BE AS UNSTABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WE`LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR NORTHERN CAL, BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN CASCADES AND
SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH INTO NORTHERN CAL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF
THE CLOUDS BREAK UP ENOUGH AND THERE`S ENOUGH CLEARING, THEN WE
COULD SEE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM
EAST TO WEST BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS. EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THEN MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE
WEST TO NORTHWEST.

SHORTWAVES WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING ON SATURDAY, EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST
MODOC COUNTY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A STRONGER TRIGGER IN
NORTHERN CAL AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CAL AND
SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY.

ON SUNDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL. THE STEERING WINDS SUNDAY
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS, SO THEY WILL BE LOW
MOVERS AND WILL TEND TO DRIFT EAST TO NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL BE NEAR
TRIPLE DIGITS FOR PARTS OF THE ROUGE...ILLINOIS AND SHASTA VALLEY
AND KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY.

GUIDANCE, OVERALL, HAS INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT OVER THE
AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF OF THE COAST PUSHES EASTWARD, PUTTING US IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND, POSSIBLY, SOME WITH WETTING
PRECIPITATION. WE EXPECT THAT THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A
WELCOME COOL DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEST SIDE DOES RUN THE
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT, THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF THE SISKIYOUS AND FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD. -PETRUCELLI



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

CC



000
FXUS66 KPDT 031539
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
839 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR RECORD
HEAT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HEAT ADVISORIES CONTINUING
AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS ITSELF ON THE REGION. WILL SEE A
SLIGHT COOLING OF A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CASCADES AS SOME MARINE AIR SEEPS AND SPILLS OVER THE CASCADES
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO CREATE SOME LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OVERNIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH CANADA. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP 3 TO 6 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. STILL
HOT THOUGH WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 IN THE LOWER BASIN FOR THE FOURTH
OF JULY AND IN THE 90S ELSEWHERE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND CENTRAL OREGON...INCLUDING THE KITTITAS VALLEY,
YAKIMA VALLEY, AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE APPEAR ON TRACK.
HOWEVER...THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL AS WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY GUSTY BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO EASILY CARRY A
FIRE...ESPECIALLY IN THE DRY GRASSY AREAS.  UNFORTUNATELY...FOURTH
OF JULY FIREWORKS CONTRIBUTE TO THE PROBLEM.  ALL RED FLAG WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FIRE ZONE
675 THAT COVERS THE HANFORD DISTRICT AND YAKIMA VALLEY.  IN THIS
AREA...SURFACE WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.  THE NEXT FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AFTER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT IS MINIMAL AND ONLY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY-TUESDAY.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
MARINE AIR WILL FILTER THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE CASCADES.
IN EASTERN AREAS IT WILL REMAIN VERY HOT TODAY WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THAT AREA. ON SATURDAY WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ALSO IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL VERY WARM AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY LOWER
SLIGHTLY. EXPECT HIGHS AGAIN TODAY TO RANGE FROM 100-107 OVER THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS WITH 80S AND 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE
VERY WARM TO HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. THE
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS AND
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING AND
THEN END. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EARLY EVENING WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FURTHER COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE WESTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PULL COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE CWA. 88

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON EACH DAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE AREA. DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
OTHER AREAS. MODELS HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING FURTHER INLAND
EACH DAY...BUT STILL INDICATE THAT A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CUT OFF
MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY NORTH OF DESCHUTES...CROOK...AND GRANT
COUNTIES.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS.  COONFIELD

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE 10-20 AT KDLS...AND 10-15
IN THE AFTERNOON AT KRDM AND KBDN. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 105  66 100  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALW 105  72 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 107  69 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 101  68  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 105  69 101  66 /   0   0   0   0
ELN 102  71 100  63 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  99  55  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  98  55  94  59 /   0   0   0   0
GCD 101  58  98  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLS 101  69  99  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ610-640-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ639.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89




000
FXUS66 KPDT 031539
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
839 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR RECORD
HEAT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HEAT ADVISORIES CONTINUING
AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS ITSELF ON THE REGION. WILL SEE A
SLIGHT COOLING OF A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CASCADES AS SOME MARINE AIR SEEPS AND SPILLS OVER THE CASCADES
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO CREATE SOME LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OVERNIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH CANADA. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP 3 TO 6 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. STILL
HOT THOUGH WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 IN THE LOWER BASIN FOR THE FOURTH
OF JULY AND IN THE 90S ELSEWHERE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND CENTRAL OREGON...INCLUDING THE KITTITAS VALLEY,
YAKIMA VALLEY, AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE APPEAR ON TRACK.
HOWEVER...THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL AS WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY GUSTY BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO EASILY CARRY A
FIRE...ESPECIALLY IN THE DRY GRASSY AREAS.  UNFORTUNATELY...FOURTH
OF JULY FIREWORKS CONTRIBUTE TO THE PROBLEM.  ALL RED FLAG WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FIRE ZONE
675 THAT COVERS THE HANFORD DISTRICT AND YAKIMA VALLEY.  IN THIS
AREA...SURFACE WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.  THE NEXT FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AFTER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT IS MINIMAL AND ONLY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY-TUESDAY.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
MARINE AIR WILL FILTER THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE CASCADES.
IN EASTERN AREAS IT WILL REMAIN VERY HOT TODAY WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THAT AREA. ON SATURDAY WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ALSO IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL VERY WARM AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY LOWER
SLIGHTLY. EXPECT HIGHS AGAIN TODAY TO RANGE FROM 100-107 OVER THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS WITH 80S AND 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE
VERY WARM TO HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. THE
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS AND
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING AND
THEN END. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EARLY EVENING WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FURTHER COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE WESTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PULL COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE CWA. 88

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON EACH DAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE AREA. DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
OTHER AREAS. MODELS HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING FURTHER INLAND
EACH DAY...BUT STILL INDICATE THAT A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CUT OFF
MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY NORTH OF DESCHUTES...CROOK...AND GRANT
COUNTIES.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS.  COONFIELD

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE 10-20 AT KDLS...AND 10-15
IN THE AFTERNOON AT KRDM AND KBDN. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 105  66 100  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALW 105  72 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 107  69 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 101  68  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 105  69 101  66 /   0   0   0   0
ELN 102  71 100  63 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  99  55  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  98  55  94  59 /   0   0   0   0
GCD 101  58  98  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLS 101  69  99  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ610-640-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ639.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 031530
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RESULTING IN PERSISTENT INLAND HEAT. THE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE MARINE
LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ITS COOLING INFLUENCE GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS. INLAND VALLEYS REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...
POSSIBLY LONGER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH TOWARD THE
OR/CA BORDER. SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO
TODAY NOT LIKELY TO DIFFER MUCH FROM THU. ONSHORE FLOW WAS A BIT
STRONGER THIS MORNING WHICH ALLOWED MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH A LITTLE
FURTHER UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA PAST KLS. A COMBINATION OF A BIT
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND A LITTLE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ALOFT MAY
TAKE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT
WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON AS A STRONG AND SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM TEXAS THROUGH OREGON AND INTO NE PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE MARINE LAYER TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE COOLING
IN THE INLAND VALLEYS...AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND PROBABLY LONGER.

MODEL 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE +20 TO +22 DEG C RANGE...YIELDING
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS GIVEN FULL DAYTIME
SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDAY. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE...
KEEPING THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS MUCH COOLER WITH AREAS
OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON FRI/SAT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY
BE TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE MARINE
LAYER. IN FACT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO INTERIOR BC MAY SHOVE
PART OF THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE...WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND CAUSING SUNDAY TO BE NEARLY AS HOT AS YESTERDAY.
PUSHING THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE MAY INVITE A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL/SURGE TO PUSH UP THE COAST...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
DOUBTFUL THE RESULTING SURGE OF MARINE AIR WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON INLAND TEMPS. IF IT DOES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A COOLDOWN MONDAY WOULD BE NEAR EUGENE. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL HOLD ON TO THAT
THOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE NIGHT HOURS AS RELIEF WILL
BE SLOW TO COME INLAND.

WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH AN UPPER LOW FORMING OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER AS FAR
NORTH AS THE SOUTH OREGON CASCADES THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS CLIPPING LANE COUNTY. UNLESS THE UPPER LOW WOBBLES A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN PRESENTLY EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING FOR THUNDER IN OUR CASCADES THIS WEEKEND. KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH
AMPLITUDE 500 MB REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND OR/WA IN WEAK
TROUGH OR COL SEPARATING SWRN U.S. RIDGE AND ERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK
RIDGE. DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGHINESS...AMS REMAINS WARM WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE OCCURS IN
OVERALL PATTERN INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND PACIFIC CUTOFF MAKING SLOW EWD
PROGRESS TOWARD CNTRL CA CSTLN. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER
MAINLY IN AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER OR/WA/WRN CANADA AND POSITION OF
ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF. DESPITE THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY MID
WEEK...WARM TEMPERATURES NEARLY CERTAIN /10-12 DEG ABOVE NORMAL/ BUT
INFLUENCE OF ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF PROVIDES A CHANCE OF INLAND/MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY-THURSDAY. BRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...STABLE WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
VFR TO REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE INLAND TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS. IFR MARINE STRATUS FORMED AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND PUSHED
UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER AS FAR AS KELSO. THE COASTAL STRATUS APPEARS
TO BE A BIT THICKER THAN YESTERDAY...SO EXPECT A SLOWER
BURNOFF...LIKELY BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRATUS SHOULD RETURN TO THE COAST
THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BEST WINDS ARE FURTHER
OFFSHORE...WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS
ARE LIGHTER NEAR SHORE...BUT EXPECT THEM TO PICK UP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT LIKELY. THE THERMAL
LOW PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND...WEAKENING THE PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS ACROSS ALL
WATERS TO DROP BELOW 20 KT LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL
OCCUR LATE SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND A
DOMINATE PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. STRONG WINDS OFF OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND WILL PRODUCE A BUILDING NW SWELL THIS WEEKEND THAT COULD
PUSH SEAS TO NEAR 10 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO
AROUND 4 TO 5 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 031530
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RESULTING IN PERSISTENT INLAND HEAT. THE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE MARINE
LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ITS COOLING INFLUENCE GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS. INLAND VALLEYS REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...
POSSIBLY LONGER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH TOWARD THE
OR/CA BORDER. SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO
TODAY NOT LIKELY TO DIFFER MUCH FROM THU. ONSHORE FLOW WAS A BIT
STRONGER THIS MORNING WHICH ALLOWED MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH A LITTLE
FURTHER UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA PAST KLS. A COMBINATION OF A BIT
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND A LITTLE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ALOFT MAY
TAKE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT
WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON AS A STRONG AND SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM TEXAS THROUGH OREGON AND INTO NE PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE MARINE LAYER TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE COOLING
IN THE INLAND VALLEYS...AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND PROBABLY LONGER.

MODEL 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE +20 TO +22 DEG C RANGE...YIELDING
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS GIVEN FULL DAYTIME
SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDAY. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE...
KEEPING THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS MUCH COOLER WITH AREAS
OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON FRI/SAT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY
BE TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE MARINE
LAYER. IN FACT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO INTERIOR BC MAY SHOVE
PART OF THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE...WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND CAUSING SUNDAY TO BE NEARLY AS HOT AS YESTERDAY.
PUSHING THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE MAY INVITE A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL/SURGE TO PUSH UP THE COAST...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
DOUBTFUL THE RESULTING SURGE OF MARINE AIR WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON INLAND TEMPS. IF IT DOES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A COOLDOWN MONDAY WOULD BE NEAR EUGENE. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL HOLD ON TO THAT
THOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE NIGHT HOURS AS RELIEF WILL
BE SLOW TO COME INLAND.

WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH AN UPPER LOW FORMING OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER AS FAR
NORTH AS THE SOUTH OREGON CASCADES THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS CLIPPING LANE COUNTY. UNLESS THE UPPER LOW WOBBLES A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN PRESENTLY EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING FOR THUNDER IN OUR CASCADES THIS WEEKEND. KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH
AMPLITUDE 500 MB REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND OR/WA IN WEAK
TROUGH OR COL SEPARATING SWRN U.S. RIDGE AND ERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK
RIDGE. DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGHINESS...AMS REMAINS WARM WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE OCCURS IN
OVERALL PATTERN INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND PACIFIC CUTOFF MAKING SLOW EWD
PROGRESS TOWARD CNTRL CA CSTLN. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER
MAINLY IN AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER OR/WA/WRN CANADA AND POSITION OF
ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF. DESPITE THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY MID
WEEK...WARM TEMPERATURES NEARLY CERTAIN /10-12 DEG ABOVE NORMAL/ BUT
INFLUENCE OF ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF PROVIDES A CHANCE OF INLAND/MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY-THURSDAY. BRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...STABLE WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
VFR TO REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE INLAND TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS. IFR MARINE STRATUS FORMED AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND PUSHED
UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER AS FAR AS KELSO. THE COASTAL STRATUS APPEARS
TO BE A BIT THICKER THAN YESTERDAY...SO EXPECT A SLOWER
BURNOFF...LIKELY BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRATUS SHOULD RETURN TO THE COAST
THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BEST WINDS ARE FURTHER
OFFSHORE...WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS
ARE LIGHTER NEAR SHORE...BUT EXPECT THEM TO PICK UP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT LIKELY. THE THERMAL
LOW PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND...WEAKENING THE PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS ACROSS ALL
WATERS TO DROP BELOW 20 KT LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL
OCCUR LATE SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND A
DOMINATE PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. STRONG WINDS OFF OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND WILL PRODUCE A BUILDING NW SWELL THIS WEEKEND THAT COULD
PUSH SEAS TO NEAR 10 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO
AROUND 4 TO 5 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 031530
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RESULTING IN PERSISTENT INLAND HEAT. THE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE MARINE
LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ITS COOLING INFLUENCE GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS. INLAND VALLEYS REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...
POSSIBLY LONGER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH TOWARD THE
OR/CA BORDER. SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO
TODAY NOT LIKELY TO DIFFER MUCH FROM THU. ONSHORE FLOW WAS A BIT
STRONGER THIS MORNING WHICH ALLOWED MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH A LITTLE
FURTHER UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA PAST KLS. A COMBINATION OF A BIT
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND A LITTLE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ALOFT MAY
TAKE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT
WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON AS A STRONG AND SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM TEXAS THROUGH OREGON AND INTO NE PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE MARINE LAYER TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE COOLING
IN THE INLAND VALLEYS...AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND PROBABLY LONGER.

MODEL 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE +20 TO +22 DEG C RANGE...YIELDING
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS GIVEN FULL DAYTIME
SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDAY. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE...
KEEPING THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS MUCH COOLER WITH AREAS
OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON FRI/SAT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY
BE TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE MARINE
LAYER. IN FACT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO INTERIOR BC MAY SHOVE
PART OF THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE...WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND CAUSING SUNDAY TO BE NEARLY AS HOT AS YESTERDAY.
PUSHING THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE MAY INVITE A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL/SURGE TO PUSH UP THE COAST...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
DOUBTFUL THE RESULTING SURGE OF MARINE AIR WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON INLAND TEMPS. IF IT DOES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A COOLDOWN MONDAY WOULD BE NEAR EUGENE. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL HOLD ON TO THAT
THOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE NIGHT HOURS AS RELIEF WILL
BE SLOW TO COME INLAND.

WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH AN UPPER LOW FORMING OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER AS FAR
NORTH AS THE SOUTH OREGON CASCADES THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS CLIPPING LANE COUNTY. UNLESS THE UPPER LOW WOBBLES A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN PRESENTLY EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING FOR THUNDER IN OUR CASCADES THIS WEEKEND. KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH
AMPLITUDE 500 MB REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND OR/WA IN WEAK
TROUGH OR COL SEPARATING SWRN U.S. RIDGE AND ERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK
RIDGE. DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGHINESS...AMS REMAINS WARM WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE OCCURS IN
OVERALL PATTERN INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND PACIFIC CUTOFF MAKING SLOW EWD
PROGRESS TOWARD CNTRL CA CSTLN. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER
MAINLY IN AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER OR/WA/WRN CANADA AND POSITION OF
ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF. DESPITE THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY MID
WEEK...WARM TEMPERATURES NEARLY CERTAIN /10-12 DEG ABOVE NORMAL/ BUT
INFLUENCE OF ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF PROVIDES A CHANCE OF INLAND/MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY-THURSDAY. BRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...STABLE WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
VFR TO REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE INLAND TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS. IFR MARINE STRATUS FORMED AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND PUSHED
UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER AS FAR AS KELSO. THE COASTAL STRATUS APPEARS
TO BE A BIT THICKER THAN YESTERDAY...SO EXPECT A SLOWER
BURNOFF...LIKELY BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRATUS SHOULD RETURN TO THE COAST
THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BEST WINDS ARE FURTHER
OFFSHORE...WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS
ARE LIGHTER NEAR SHORE...BUT EXPECT THEM TO PICK UP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT LIKELY. THE THERMAL
LOW PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND...WEAKENING THE PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS ACROSS ALL
WATERS TO DROP BELOW 20 KT LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL
OCCUR LATE SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND A
DOMINATE PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. STRONG WINDS OFF OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND WILL PRODUCE A BUILDING NW SWELL THIS WEEKEND THAT COULD
PUSH SEAS TO NEAR 10 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO
AROUND 4 TO 5 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 031514
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
914 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE NV BORDER WHERE ISOLATED STORMS ARE
FORECAST. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A FEW DEGREES
OVER 100 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. NO CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CUMULUS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER AFTER 20Z.
WEST/NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 04Z
TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 15 KTS THROUGH 10K
FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER HIGH STRETCHED ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN WILL START A SLOW RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL ACT TO TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF THE
HEAT BY SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PULLS EAST OF THE AREA
..MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST...INCREASING MOISTURE.
THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE /PW
VALUES APPROACH ONE INCH ALONG THE NV BORDER ON SATURDAY/ WILL
BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN
ZONES BORDERING NV AND LIKELY INCREASE CLOUD COVER FURTHER NORTH.
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN HIGH-BASED WITH DRY LOWER
LEVELS SUPPORTING THE THREAT OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT HAS BROUGHT THE 100+ DEGREE VALLEY TEMPERATURES FOR PAST
WEEK WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE MIDWEST KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN
COOLER/STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH AND THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND FOR INCREASED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VARYING FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....MT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 031514
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
914 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE NV BORDER WHERE ISOLATED STORMS ARE
FORECAST. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A FEW DEGREES
OVER 100 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. NO CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CUMULUS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER AFTER 20Z.
WEST/NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 04Z
TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 15 KTS THROUGH 10K
FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER HIGH STRETCHED ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN WILL START A SLOW RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL ACT TO TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF THE
HEAT BY SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PULLS EAST OF THE AREA
..MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST...INCREASING MOISTURE.
THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE /PW
VALUES APPROACH ONE INCH ALONG THE NV BORDER ON SATURDAY/ WILL
BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN
ZONES BORDERING NV AND LIKELY INCREASE CLOUD COVER FURTHER NORTH.
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN HIGH-BASED WITH DRY LOWER
LEVELS SUPPORTING THE THREAT OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT HAS BROUGHT THE 100+ DEGREE VALLEY TEMPERATURES FOR PAST
WEEK WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE MIDWEST KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN
COOLER/STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH AND THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND FOR INCREASED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VARYING FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....MT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS66 KPDT 031112 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
410 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
MARINE AIR WILL FILTER THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE CASCADES.
IN EASTERN AREAS IT WILL REMAIN VERY HOT TODAY WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THAT AREA. ON SATURDAY WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ALSO IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL VERY WARM AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY LOWER
SLIGHTLY. EXPECT HIGHS AGAIN TODAY TO RANGE FROM 100-107 OVER THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS WITH 80S AND 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE
VERY WARM TO HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. THE
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS AND
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING AND
THEN END. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EARLY EVENING WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FURTHER COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE WESTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PULL COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE CWA. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON EACH DAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE AREA. DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
OTHER AREAS. MODELS HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING FURTHER INLAND
EACH DAY...BUT STILL INDICATE THAT A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CUT OFF
MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY NORTH OF DESCHUTES...CROOK...AND GRANT
COUNTIES.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE 10-20 AT KDLS...AND 10-15
IN THE AFTERNOON AT KRDM AND KBDN. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 103  66 101  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALW 104  72 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 106  67 104  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 100  68  99  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 104  68 103  66 /   0   0   0   0
ELN 103  64 101  63 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  98  56  97  60 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  97  58  96  59 /   0   0   0   0
GCD 102  58 100  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLS 101  68 101  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ610-640-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ639.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/76/97



000
FXUS66 KPDT 031112 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
410 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
MARINE AIR WILL FILTER THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE CASCADES.
IN EASTERN AREAS IT WILL REMAIN VERY HOT TODAY WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THAT AREA. ON SATURDAY WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ALSO IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL VERY WARM AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY LOWER
SLIGHTLY. EXPECT HIGHS AGAIN TODAY TO RANGE FROM 100-107 OVER THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS WITH 80S AND 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE
VERY WARM TO HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. THE
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS AND
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING AND
THEN END. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EARLY EVENING WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FURTHER COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE WESTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PULL COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE CWA. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON EACH DAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE AREA. DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
OTHER AREAS. MODELS HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING FURTHER INLAND
EACH DAY...BUT STILL INDICATE THAT A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CUT OFF
MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY NORTH OF DESCHUTES...CROOK...AND GRANT
COUNTIES.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE 10-20 AT KDLS...AND 10-15
IN THE AFTERNOON AT KRDM AND KBDN. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 103  66 101  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALW 104  72 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 106  67 104  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 100  68  99  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 104  68 103  66 /   0   0   0   0
ELN 103  64 101  63 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  98  56  97  60 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  97  58  96  59 /   0   0   0   0
GCD 102  58 100  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLS 101  68 101  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ610-640-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ639.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/76/97



000
FXUS66 KPDT 031112 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
410 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
MARINE AIR WILL FILTER THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE CASCADES.
IN EASTERN AREAS IT WILL REMAIN VERY HOT TODAY WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THAT AREA. ON SATURDAY WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ALSO IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL VERY WARM AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY LOWER
SLIGHTLY. EXPECT HIGHS AGAIN TODAY TO RANGE FROM 100-107 OVER THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS WITH 80S AND 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE
VERY WARM TO HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. THE
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS AND
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING AND
THEN END. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EARLY EVENING WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FURTHER COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE WESTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PULL COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE CWA. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON EACH DAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE AREA. DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
OTHER AREAS. MODELS HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING FURTHER INLAND
EACH DAY...BUT STILL INDICATE THAT A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CUT OFF
MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY NORTH OF DESCHUTES...CROOK...AND GRANT
COUNTIES.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE 10-20 AT KDLS...AND 10-15
IN THE AFTERNOON AT KRDM AND KBDN. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 103  66 101  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALW 104  72 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 106  67 104  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 100  68  99  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 104  68 103  66 /   0   0   0   0
ELN 103  64 101  63 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  98  56  97  60 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  97  58  96  59 /   0   0   0   0
GCD 102  58 100  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLS 101  68 101  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ610-640-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ639.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/76/97




000
FXUS66 KMFR 031049
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
349 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT IR IMAGE SHOWS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS SLOWLY ADVANCING NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN CAL. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THUS IT WILL NOT BE AS UNSTABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WE`LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR NORTHERN CAL, BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN CASCADES AND
SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH INTO NORTHERN CAL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF
THE CLOUDS BREAK UP ENOUGH AND THERE`S ENOUGH CLEARING, THEN WE
COULD SEE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM
EAST TO WEST BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS. EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THEN MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE
WEST TO NORTHWEST.

SHORTWAVES WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING ON SATURDAY, EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST
MODOC COUNTY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A STRONGER TRIGGER IN
NORTHERN CAL AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CAL AND
SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY.

ON SUNDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL. THE STEERING WINDS SUNDAY
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS, SO THEY WILL BE LOW
MOVERS AND WILL TEND TO DRIFT EAST TO NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL BE NEAR
TRIPLE DIGITS FOR PARTS OF THE ROUGE...ILLINOIS AND SHASTA VALLEY
AND KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY.

GUIDANCE, OVERALL, HAS INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT OVER THE
AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF OF THE COAST PUSHES EASTWARD, PUTTING US IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND, POSSIBLY, SOME WITH WETTING
PRECIPITATION. WE EXPECT THAT THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A
WELCOME COOL DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEST SIDE DOES RUN THE
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT, THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF THE SISKIYOUS AND FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/06Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO AREAS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO AND ALSO THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN THESE AREAS BY LATE MORNING. OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND. -BPN/SPILDE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 330 AM PDT FRIDAY 3 JULY 2015...HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. AN INVERSION WILL BRING
CONTINUED MODERATE TO LOCALLY POOR RECOVERIES TO MANY RIDGES OVER
THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT.  MOISTURE ALOFT IS INCREASING TODAY WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. EXPECT A
MOISTURE PLUME TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION THIS MORNING THAT WILL REDUCE
SURFACE HEATING. THIS DECREASED SURFACE HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST. EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND FROM WESTERN ACROSS
EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO MODOC COUNTY AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.  ON SATURDAY,
EXPECT A SIMILAR AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT STORMS MAY BE
SCATTERED, MAINLY IN MODOC AND NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH
AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. SOME OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE WET...BUT
THE NUMBER OF STRIKES SHOULD BE ENOUGH THAT THE NUMBER OF STRIKES
OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN CORE COULD CAUSE A GOOD NUMBER OF STARTS. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 031049
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
349 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT IR IMAGE SHOWS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS SLOWLY ADVANCING NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN CAL. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THUS IT WILL NOT BE AS UNSTABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WE`LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR NORTHERN CAL, BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN CASCADES AND
SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH INTO NORTHERN CAL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF
THE CLOUDS BREAK UP ENOUGH AND THERE`S ENOUGH CLEARING, THEN WE
COULD SEE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM
EAST TO WEST BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS. EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THEN MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE
WEST TO NORTHWEST.

SHORTWAVES WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING ON SATURDAY, EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST
MODOC COUNTY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A STRONGER TRIGGER IN
NORTHERN CAL AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CAL AND
SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY.

ON SUNDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL. THE STEERING WINDS SUNDAY
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS, SO THEY WILL BE LOW
MOVERS AND WILL TEND TO DRIFT EAST TO NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL BE NEAR
TRIPLE DIGITS FOR PARTS OF THE ROUGE...ILLINOIS AND SHASTA VALLEY
AND KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY.

GUIDANCE, OVERALL, HAS INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT OVER THE
AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF OF THE COAST PUSHES EASTWARD, PUTTING US IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND, POSSIBLY, SOME WITH WETTING
PRECIPITATION. WE EXPECT THAT THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A
WELCOME COOL DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEST SIDE DOES RUN THE
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT, THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF THE SISKIYOUS AND FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/06Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO AREAS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO AND ALSO THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN THESE AREAS BY LATE MORNING. OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND. -BPN/SPILDE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 330 AM PDT FRIDAY 3 JULY 2015...HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. AN INVERSION WILL BRING
CONTINUED MODERATE TO LOCALLY POOR RECOVERIES TO MANY RIDGES OVER
THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT.  MOISTURE ALOFT IS INCREASING TODAY WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. EXPECT A
MOISTURE PLUME TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION THIS MORNING THAT WILL REDUCE
SURFACE HEATING. THIS DECREASED SURFACE HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST. EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND FROM WESTERN ACROSS
EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO MODOC COUNTY AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.  ON SATURDAY,
EXPECT A SIMILAR AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT STORMS MAY BE
SCATTERED, MAINLY IN MODOC AND NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH
AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. SOME OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE WET...BUT
THE NUMBER OF STRIKES SHOULD BE ENOUGH THAT THE NUMBER OF STRIKES
OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN CORE COULD CAUSE A GOOD NUMBER OF STARTS. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KPQR 031027
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
326 AM PDT FRI JUL  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RESULTING IN PERSISTENT INLAND HEAT. THE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE MARINE
LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ITS COOLING INFLUENCE GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS. INLAND VALLEYS REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...
POSSIBLY LONGER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH TOWARD THE
OR/CA BORDER. SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL
BUT THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AS A
STRONG AND SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM TEXAS THROUGH
OREGON AND INTO NE PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MARINE
LAYER TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE COOLING IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS...AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND PROBABLY LONGER.

MODEL 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE +20 TO +22 DEG C RANGE...YIELDING
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS GIVEN FULL DAYTIME
SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDAY. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE...
KEEPING THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS MUCH COOLER WITH AREAS
OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON FRI/SAT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY
BE TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE MARINE
LAYER. IN FACT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO INTERIOR BC MAY SHOVE
PART OF THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE...WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND CAUSING SUNDAY TO BE NEARLY AS HOT AS YESTERDAY.
PUSHING THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE MAY INVITE A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL/SURGE TO PUSH UP THE COAST...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
DOUBTFUL THE RESULTING SURGE OF MARINE AIR WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON INLAND TEMPS. IF IT DOES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A COOLDOWN MONDAY WOULD BE NEAR EUGENE. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL HOLD ON TO THAT
THOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE NIGHT HOURS AS RELIEF WILL
BE SLOW TO COME INLAND.

WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH AN UPPER LOW FORMING OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER AS FAR
NORTH AS THE SOUTH OREGON CASCADES THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS CLIPPING LANE COUNTY. UNLESS THE UPPER LOW WOBBLES A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN PRESENTLY EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING FOR THUNDER IN OUR CASCADES THIS WEEKEND. KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH
AMPLITUDE 500 MB REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND OR/WA IN WEAK
TROUGH OR COL SEPARATING SWRN U.S. RIDGE AND ERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK
RIDGE. DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGHINESS...AMS REMAINS WARM WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE OCCURS IN
OVERALL PATTERN INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND PACIFIC CUTOFF MAKING SLOW EWD
PROGRESS TOWARD CNTRL CA CSTLN. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER
MAINLY IN AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER OR/WA/WRN CANADA AND POSITION OF
ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF. DESPITE THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY MID
WEEK...WARM TEMPERATURES NEARLY CERTAIN /10-12 DEG ABOVE NORMAL/ BUT
INFLUENCE OF ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF PROVIDES A CHANCE OF INLAND/MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY-THURSDAY. BRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR NEXT 24 HRS AT INLAND TAF SITES UNDER
STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IFR STRATUS RETURNED TO THE COAST
WITH CIGS BELOW 1000 FT AND OCCASIONAL VIS DOWN TO 2 SM. SHOULD
STILL SEE SOME MARINE STRATUS INLAND UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TONIGHT
AND COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS TO KKLS AND POSSIBLY KSPB.
THE STRATUS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL REACH THE PORTLAND METRO
TERMINALS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /26

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL SAT MORNING.
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER THE INNER WATERS HAVE ENDED IN THE NORTH
BUT HAS PERSISTED SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY UP THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERMAL LOW PRES WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS REMAINING
BELOW 20 KT INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIND
REVERSAL OCCURRING LATE SUN AT THAT LOOKS REASONABLE.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND A
DOMINATE PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. STRONG WINDS OFF OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND WILL PRODUCE A BUILDING NW SWELL THIS WEEKEND THAT COULD
PUSH SEAS TO NEAR 10 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO
AROUND 4 TO 5 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR NW OREGON INTERIOR
     LOWLANDS...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST
     RANGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR LOWER COLUMBIA AND
     SW WASHINGTON INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 031027
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
326 AM PDT FRI JUL  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RESULTING IN PERSISTENT INLAND HEAT. THE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE MARINE
LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ITS COOLING INFLUENCE GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS. INLAND VALLEYS REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...
POSSIBLY LONGER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH TOWARD THE
OR/CA BORDER. SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL
BUT THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AS A
STRONG AND SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM TEXAS THROUGH
OREGON AND INTO NE PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MARINE
LAYER TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE COOLING IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS...AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND PROBABLY LONGER.

MODEL 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE +20 TO +22 DEG C RANGE...YIELDING
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS GIVEN FULL DAYTIME
SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDAY. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE...
KEEPING THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS MUCH COOLER WITH AREAS
OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON FRI/SAT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY
BE TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE MARINE
LAYER. IN FACT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO INTERIOR BC MAY SHOVE
PART OF THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE...WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND CAUSING SUNDAY TO BE NEARLY AS HOT AS YESTERDAY.
PUSHING THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE MAY INVITE A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL/SURGE TO PUSH UP THE COAST...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
DOUBTFUL THE RESULTING SURGE OF MARINE AIR WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON INLAND TEMPS. IF IT DOES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A COOLDOWN MONDAY WOULD BE NEAR EUGENE. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL HOLD ON TO THAT
THOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE NIGHT HOURS AS RELIEF WILL
BE SLOW TO COME INLAND.

WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH AN UPPER LOW FORMING OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER AS FAR
NORTH AS THE SOUTH OREGON CASCADES THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS CLIPPING LANE COUNTY. UNLESS THE UPPER LOW WOBBLES A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN PRESENTLY EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING FOR THUNDER IN OUR CASCADES THIS WEEKEND. KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH
AMPLITUDE 500 MB REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND OR/WA IN WEAK
TROUGH OR COL SEPARATING SWRN U.S. RIDGE AND ERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK
RIDGE. DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGHINESS...AMS REMAINS WARM WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE OCCURS IN
OVERALL PATTERN INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND PACIFIC CUTOFF MAKING SLOW EWD
PROGRESS TOWARD CNTRL CA CSTLN. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER
MAINLY IN AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER OR/WA/WRN CANADA AND POSITION OF
ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF. DESPITE THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY MID
WEEK...WARM TEMPERATURES NEARLY CERTAIN /10-12 DEG ABOVE NORMAL/ BUT
INFLUENCE OF ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF PROVIDES A CHANCE OF INLAND/MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY-THURSDAY. BRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR NEXT 24 HRS AT INLAND TAF SITES UNDER
STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IFR STRATUS RETURNED TO THE COAST
WITH CIGS BELOW 1000 FT AND OCCASIONAL VIS DOWN TO 2 SM. SHOULD
STILL SEE SOME MARINE STRATUS INLAND UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TONIGHT
AND COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS TO KKLS AND POSSIBLY KSPB.
THE STRATUS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL REACH THE PORTLAND METRO
TERMINALS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /26

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL SAT MORNING.
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER THE INNER WATERS HAVE ENDED IN THE NORTH
BUT HAS PERSISTED SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY UP THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERMAL LOW PRES WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS REMAINING
BELOW 20 KT INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIND
REVERSAL OCCURRING LATE SUN AT THAT LOOKS REASONABLE.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND A
DOMINATE PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. STRONG WINDS OFF OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND WILL PRODUCE A BUILDING NW SWELL THIS WEEKEND THAT COULD
PUSH SEAS TO NEAR 10 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO
AROUND 4 TO 5 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR NW OREGON INTERIOR
     LOWLANDS...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST
     RANGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR LOWER COLUMBIA AND
     SW WASHINGTON INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 031027
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
326 AM PDT FRI JUL  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RESULTING IN PERSISTENT INLAND HEAT. THE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE MARINE
LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ITS COOLING INFLUENCE GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS. INLAND VALLEYS REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...
POSSIBLY LONGER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH TOWARD THE
OR/CA BORDER. SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL
BUT THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AS A
STRONG AND SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM TEXAS THROUGH
OREGON AND INTO NE PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MARINE
LAYER TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE COOLING IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS...AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND PROBABLY LONGER.

MODEL 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE +20 TO +22 DEG C RANGE...YIELDING
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS GIVEN FULL DAYTIME
SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDAY. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE...
KEEPING THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS MUCH COOLER WITH AREAS
OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON FRI/SAT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY
BE TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE MARINE
LAYER. IN FACT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO INTERIOR BC MAY SHOVE
PART OF THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE...WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND CAUSING SUNDAY TO BE NEARLY AS HOT AS YESTERDAY.
PUSHING THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE MAY INVITE A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL/SURGE TO PUSH UP THE COAST...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
DOUBTFUL THE RESULTING SURGE OF MARINE AIR WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON INLAND TEMPS. IF IT DOES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A COOLDOWN MONDAY WOULD BE NEAR EUGENE. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL HOLD ON TO THAT
THOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE NIGHT HOURS AS RELIEF WILL
BE SLOW TO COME INLAND.

WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH AN UPPER LOW FORMING OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER AS FAR
NORTH AS THE SOUTH OREGON CASCADES THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS CLIPPING LANE COUNTY. UNLESS THE UPPER LOW WOBBLES A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN PRESENTLY EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING FOR THUNDER IN OUR CASCADES THIS WEEKEND. KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH
AMPLITUDE 500 MB REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND OR/WA IN WEAK
TROUGH OR COL SEPARATING SWRN U.S. RIDGE AND ERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK
RIDGE. DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGHINESS...AMS REMAINS WARM WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE OCCURS IN
OVERALL PATTERN INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND PACIFIC CUTOFF MAKING SLOW EWD
PROGRESS TOWARD CNTRL CA CSTLN. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER
MAINLY IN AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER OR/WA/WRN CANADA AND POSITION OF
ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF. DESPITE THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY MID
WEEK...WARM TEMPERATURES NEARLY CERTAIN /10-12 DEG ABOVE NORMAL/ BUT
INFLUENCE OF ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF PROVIDES A CHANCE OF INLAND/MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY-THURSDAY. BRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR NEXT 24 HRS AT INLAND TAF SITES UNDER
STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IFR STRATUS RETURNED TO THE COAST
WITH CIGS BELOW 1000 FT AND OCCASIONAL VIS DOWN TO 2 SM. SHOULD
STILL SEE SOME MARINE STRATUS INLAND UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TONIGHT
AND COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS TO KKLS AND POSSIBLY KSPB.
THE STRATUS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL REACH THE PORTLAND METRO
TERMINALS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /26

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL SAT MORNING.
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER THE INNER WATERS HAVE ENDED IN THE NORTH
BUT HAS PERSISTED SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY UP THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERMAL LOW PRES WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS REMAINING
BELOW 20 KT INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIND
REVERSAL OCCURRING LATE SUN AT THAT LOOKS REASONABLE.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND A
DOMINATE PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. STRONG WINDS OFF OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND WILL PRODUCE A BUILDING NW SWELL THIS WEEKEND THAT COULD
PUSH SEAS TO NEAR 10 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO
AROUND 4 TO 5 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR NW OREGON INTERIOR
     LOWLANDS...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST
     RANGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR LOWER COLUMBIA AND
     SW WASHINGTON INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 031027
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
326 AM PDT FRI JUL  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RESULTING IN PERSISTENT INLAND HEAT. THE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE MARINE
LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ITS COOLING INFLUENCE GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS. INLAND VALLEYS REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...
POSSIBLY LONGER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH TOWARD THE
OR/CA BORDER. SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL
BUT THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AS A
STRONG AND SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM TEXAS THROUGH
OREGON AND INTO NE PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MARINE
LAYER TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE COOLING IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS...AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND PROBABLY LONGER.

MODEL 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE +20 TO +22 DEG C RANGE...YIELDING
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS GIVEN FULL DAYTIME
SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDAY. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE...
KEEPING THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS MUCH COOLER WITH AREAS
OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON FRI/SAT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY
BE TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE MARINE
LAYER. IN FACT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO INTERIOR BC MAY SHOVE
PART OF THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE...WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND CAUSING SUNDAY TO BE NEARLY AS HOT AS YESTERDAY.
PUSHING THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE MAY INVITE A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL/SURGE TO PUSH UP THE COAST...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
DOUBTFUL THE RESULTING SURGE OF MARINE AIR WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON INLAND TEMPS. IF IT DOES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A COOLDOWN MONDAY WOULD BE NEAR EUGENE. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL HOLD ON TO THAT
THOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE NIGHT HOURS AS RELIEF WILL
BE SLOW TO COME INLAND.

WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH AN UPPER LOW FORMING OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER AS FAR
NORTH AS THE SOUTH OREGON CASCADES THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS CLIPPING LANE COUNTY. UNLESS THE UPPER LOW WOBBLES A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN PRESENTLY EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING FOR THUNDER IN OUR CASCADES THIS WEEKEND. KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH
AMPLITUDE 500 MB REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND OR/WA IN WEAK
TROUGH OR COL SEPARATING SWRN U.S. RIDGE AND ERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK
RIDGE. DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGHINESS...AMS REMAINS WARM WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE OCCURS IN
OVERALL PATTERN INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND PACIFIC CUTOFF MAKING SLOW EWD
PROGRESS TOWARD CNTRL CA CSTLN. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER
MAINLY IN AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER OR/WA/WRN CANADA AND POSITION OF
ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF. DESPITE THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY MID
WEEK...WARM TEMPERATURES NEARLY CERTAIN /10-12 DEG ABOVE NORMAL/ BUT
INFLUENCE OF ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF PROVIDES A CHANCE OF INLAND/MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY-THURSDAY. BRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR NEXT 24 HRS AT INLAND TAF SITES UNDER
STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IFR STRATUS RETURNED TO THE COAST
WITH CIGS BELOW 1000 FT AND OCCASIONAL VIS DOWN TO 2 SM. SHOULD
STILL SEE SOME MARINE STRATUS INLAND UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TONIGHT
AND COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS TO KKLS AND POSSIBLY KSPB.
THE STRATUS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL REACH THE PORTLAND METRO
TERMINALS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /26

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL SAT MORNING.
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER THE INNER WATERS HAVE ENDED IN THE NORTH
BUT HAS PERSISTED SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY UP THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERMAL LOW PRES WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS REMAINING
BELOW 20 KT INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIND
REVERSAL OCCURRING LATE SUN AT THAT LOOKS REASONABLE.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND A
DOMINATE PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. STRONG WINDS OFF OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND WILL PRODUCE A BUILDING NW SWELL THIS WEEKEND THAT COULD
PUSH SEAS TO NEAR 10 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO
AROUND 4 TO 5 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR NW OREGON INTERIOR
     LOWLANDS...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST
     RANGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR LOWER COLUMBIA AND
     SW WASHINGTON INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 030959
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
359 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER HIGH STRETCHED ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN WILL START A SLOW RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL ACT TO TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF THE
HEAT BY SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PULLS EAST OF THE AREA
...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST...INCREASING MOISTURE.
THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE /PW
VALUES APPROACH ONE INCH ALONG THE NV BORDER ON SATURDAY/ WILL
BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN
ZONES BORDERING NV AND LIKELY INCREASE CLOUD COVER FURTHER NORTH.
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN HIGH-BASED WITH DRY LOWER
LEVELS SUPPORTING THE THREAT OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT HAS BROUGHT THE 100+ DEGREE VALLEY TEMPERATURES FOR PAST
WEEK WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE MIDWEST KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN
COOLER/STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH AND THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND FOR INCREASED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VARYING FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. AREAS OF SMOKE NORTHWEST OF KBNO AND WEST OF KBKE.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT FRI AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NW 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 030959
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
359 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER HIGH STRETCHED ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN WILL START A SLOW RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL ACT TO TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF THE
HEAT BY SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PULLS EAST OF THE AREA
...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST...INCREASING MOISTURE.
THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE /PW
VALUES APPROACH ONE INCH ALONG THE NV BORDER ON SATURDAY/ WILL
BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN
ZONES BORDERING NV AND LIKELY INCREASE CLOUD COVER FURTHER NORTH.
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN HIGH-BASED WITH DRY LOWER
LEVELS SUPPORTING THE THREAT OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT HAS BROUGHT THE 100+ DEGREE VALLEY TEMPERATURES FOR PAST
WEEK WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE MIDWEST KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN
COOLER/STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH AND THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND FOR INCREASED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VARYING FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. AREAS OF SMOKE NORTHWEST OF KBNO AND WEST OF KBKE.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT FRI AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NW 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 030959
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
359 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER HIGH STRETCHED ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN WILL START A SLOW RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL ACT TO TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF THE
HEAT BY SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PULLS EAST OF THE AREA
...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST...INCREASING MOISTURE.
THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE /PW
VALUES APPROACH ONE INCH ALONG THE NV BORDER ON SATURDAY/ WILL
BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN
ZONES BORDERING NV AND LIKELY INCREASE CLOUD COVER FURTHER NORTH.
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN HIGH-BASED WITH DRY LOWER
LEVELS SUPPORTING THE THREAT OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT HAS BROUGHT THE 100+ DEGREE VALLEY TEMPERATURES FOR PAST
WEEK WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE MIDWEST KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN
COOLER/STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH AND THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND FOR INCREASED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VARYING FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. AREAS OF SMOKE NORTHWEST OF KBNO AND WEST OF KBKE.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT FRI AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NW 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 030959
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
359 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER HIGH STRETCHED ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN WILL START A SLOW RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL ACT TO TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF THE
HEAT BY SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PULLS EAST OF THE AREA
...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST...INCREASING MOISTURE.
THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE /PW
VALUES APPROACH ONE INCH ALONG THE NV BORDER ON SATURDAY/ WILL
BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN
ZONES BORDERING NV AND LIKELY INCREASE CLOUD COVER FURTHER NORTH.
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN HIGH-BASED WITH DRY LOWER
LEVELS SUPPORTING THE THREAT OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT HAS BROUGHT THE 100+ DEGREE VALLEY TEMPERATURES FOR PAST
WEEK WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE MIDWEST KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN
COOLER/STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH AND THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND FOR INCREASED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VARYING FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. AREAS OF SMOKE NORTHWEST OF KBNO AND WEST OF KBKE.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT FRI AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NW 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS66 KPDT 030900
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
MARINE AIR WILL FILTER THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE CASCADES.
IN EASTERN AREAS IT WILL REMAIN VERY HOT TODAY WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THAT AREA. ON SATURDAY WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ALSO IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL VERY WARM AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY LOWER
SLIGHTLY. EXPECT HIGHS AGAIN TODAY TO RANGE FROM 100-107 OVER THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS WITH 80S AND 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE
VERY WARM TO HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. THE
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS AND
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING AND
THEN END. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EARLY EVENING WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FURTHER COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE WESTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PULL COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE CWA. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON EACH DAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE AREA. DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
OTHER AREAS. MODELS HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING FURTHER INLAND
EACH DAY...BUT STILL INDICATE THAT A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CUT OFF
MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY NORTH OF DESCHUTES...CROOK...AND GRANT
COUNTIES.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (06Z TAFS)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 103  66 101  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALW 104  72 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 106  67 104  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 100  68  99  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 104  68 103  66 /   0   0   0   0
ELN 103  64 101  63 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  98  56  97  60 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  97  58  96  59 /   0   0   0   0
GCD 102  58 100  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLS 101  68 101  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ610-640-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ639.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/76/97



000
FXUS66 KPDT 030900
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
MARINE AIR WILL FILTER THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE CASCADES.
IN EASTERN AREAS IT WILL REMAIN VERY HOT TODAY WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THAT AREA. ON SATURDAY WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ALSO IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL VERY WARM AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY LOWER
SLIGHTLY. EXPECT HIGHS AGAIN TODAY TO RANGE FROM 100-107 OVER THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS WITH 80S AND 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE
VERY WARM TO HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. THE
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS AND
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING AND
THEN END. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EARLY EVENING WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FURTHER COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE WESTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PULL COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE CWA. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON EACH DAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE AREA. DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
OTHER AREAS. MODELS HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING FURTHER INLAND
EACH DAY...BUT STILL INDICATE THAT A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CUT OFF
MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY NORTH OF DESCHUTES...CROOK...AND GRANT
COUNTIES.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (06Z TAFS)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 103  66 101  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALW 104  72 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 106  67 104  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 100  68  99  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 104  68 103  66 /   0   0   0   0
ELN 103  64 101  63 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  98  56  97  60 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  97  58  96  59 /   0   0   0   0
GCD 102  58 100  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLS 101  68 101  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ610-640-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ639.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/76/97




000
FXUS66 KPDT 030411 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
858 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF DESCHUTES COUNTY EARLIER
BUT HAVE DISSIPATED. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH
THE HOT TEMPERATURES. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND THE PRESENT SHORT
TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD
PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THAT WILL HAVE THE MINOR IMPACT OF SLIGHTLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY BUT THEN SOME GRADUAL COOLING OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100
ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH IS STILL
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WILL NEED TO WATCH SOME MOISTURE
CREEPING UP INTO SOUTHERN OREGON ON SUNDAY AS SOME OF THIS COULD
INFRINGE ON CENTRAL OREGON IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS THE MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.


LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS A
FOUR CORNERS HIGH CONTINUES TO HOLD WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON EACH DAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
ATTEMPTS TO SPIN UP MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE AREA.
ALL OTHER AREAS CAN EXPECT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.  MODELS HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING FURTHER INLAND
EACH DAY...BUT IS STILL INDICATING THAT A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CUT OF
MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY NORTH OF DESCHUTES...CROOK...AND GRANT
COUNTY.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS. WEBER

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT SCT
CUMULUS AND CIRRUS AT KRDM AND KBDN TODAY. SURFACE WINDS 5-15 KTS.
WEBER

FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCHES WILL BE UPGRADED TO RED
FLAG WARNINGS FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  THIS MAINLY
COVERS THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN KITTITAS VALLEY, THE HANFORD DISTRICT, AND NORTH CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL OREGON. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING A STRONG WIND EVENT. THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER WILL OBSERVE BREEZY
WINDS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE AND AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVE AND 10-20 MPH WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.  DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 8-18
PERCENT...AND VEGETATION IS VERY DRY.  IT TAKES LITTLE WIND TO CAUSE
RAPID FIRE SPREAD. A NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.  THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH IN
THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND FROM THE TRI-CITES NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY DURING THIS TIME...THEREFORE THE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE ZONE 675 (YAKIMA VALLEY AND HANFORD
DISTRICT) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67 103  67  99 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  73 104  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  69 106  68 102 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  68 100  69  97 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  68 104  69 101 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  65 103  65  99 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  61  98  57  95 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  58  97  59  94 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  62 102  59  98 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  72 101  69  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ610-640-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WAZ639.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97



000
FXUS66 KPDT 030411 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
858 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF DESCHUTES COUNTY EARLIER
BUT HAVE DISSIPATED. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH
THE HOT TEMPERATURES. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND THE PRESENT SHORT
TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD
PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THAT WILL HAVE THE MINOR IMPACT OF SLIGHTLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY BUT THEN SOME GRADUAL COOLING OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100
ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH IS STILL
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WILL NEED TO WATCH SOME MOISTURE
CREEPING UP INTO SOUTHERN OREGON ON SUNDAY AS SOME OF THIS COULD
INFRINGE ON CENTRAL OREGON IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS THE MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.


LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS A
FOUR CORNERS HIGH CONTINUES TO HOLD WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON EACH DAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
ATTEMPTS TO SPIN UP MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE AREA.
ALL OTHER AREAS CAN EXPECT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.  MODELS HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING FURTHER INLAND
EACH DAY...BUT IS STILL INDICATING THAT A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CUT OF
MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY NORTH OF DESCHUTES...CROOK...AND GRANT
COUNTY.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS. WEBER

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT SCT
CUMULUS AND CIRRUS AT KRDM AND KBDN TODAY. SURFACE WINDS 5-15 KTS.
WEBER

FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCHES WILL BE UPGRADED TO RED
FLAG WARNINGS FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  THIS MAINLY
COVERS THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN KITTITAS VALLEY, THE HANFORD DISTRICT, AND NORTH CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL OREGON. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING A STRONG WIND EVENT. THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER WILL OBSERVE BREEZY
WINDS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE AND AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVE AND 10-20 MPH WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.  DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 8-18
PERCENT...AND VEGETATION IS VERY DRY.  IT TAKES LITTLE WIND TO CAUSE
RAPID FIRE SPREAD. A NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.  THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH IN
THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND FROM THE TRI-CITES NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY DURING THIS TIME...THEREFORE THE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE ZONE 675 (YAKIMA VALLEY AND HANFORD
DISTRICT) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67 103  67  99 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  73 104  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  69 106  68 102 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  68 100  69  97 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  68 104  69 101 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  65 103  65  99 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  61  98  57  95 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  58  97  59  94 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  62 102  59  98 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  72 101  69  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ610-640-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WAZ639.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97




000
FXUS66 KMFR 030356
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
856 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE TEMPERATURE AT ROGUE VALLEY INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT REACHED 107 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WAS ONE DEGREE
SHY OF THE RECORD (108) SET IN 1922. IT APPEARED MOST OF THE DAY
WE`D AT LEAST TIE OR BREAK THE RECORD (OUTPACING YESTERDAY BY A
FEW DEGREES), BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON CAUSED
THE TEMPERATURE TO LEVEL OFF. TWO RECORDS WERE SET/TIED TODAY
(PREVIOUS RECORD IN PARENTHESES): MOUNT SHASTA: 99 (99 IN 2013)
AND MONTAGUE: 106 (105 IN 2013).

WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL LOWERING OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT IT WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS
NEAR OR ABOVE 100 IN MEDFORD EACH AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE, SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WERE ABLE TO IGNITE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. TWO OF THE STRONGER CELLS
THAT PROMPTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS FOR LARGE HAIL WERE
LOCATED IN EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY...BETWEEN TENNANT AND LAVA BEDS
NATIONAL PARK. VARIOUS LIGHTNING NETWORKS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM
75-150 CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES WITH THESE 2 CELLS. SINCE THE STORM
MOTIONS WERE NEGLIGIBLE, THE STORMS PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL
BENEATH THEIR CORES WITH RADAR ESTIMATED AMOUNTS IN THESE
LOCATIONS OF 0.50-2.00 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. A
PORTABLE RAWS NEAR ONE STORM GOT 0.26 OF AN INCH, BUT WAS ON THE
EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS OUT THERE
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PORTIONS OF MODOC
COUNTY NORTH OF ALTURAS AND ALSO LAKE COUNTY NEAR LAKEVIEW. THESE
SHOULD DWINDLE OVERNIGHT, BUT MAY NOT GO AWAY COMPLETELY, SO WE
HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

WE SHOULD HAVE A REPEAT ON FRIDAY WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE
CASCADES AND OVER TO THE EAST SIDE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS ARE STILL PEGGING THE BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS
SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS AND TRINITY ALPS OVER TO
THE MEDICINE LAKE REGION/WEST SIDE OF LAVA BEDS NATIONAL
PARK...AND ALSO NEAR OR JUST WEST OF LAKEVIEW. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN THIS EVENING TO AREAS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO AND THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS. CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATE MORNING. OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON
CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE
COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. -BPN
-BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND. -BPN/SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE ZERO TO 4 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
HIGHER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. I`VE NUDGED UP FORECAST HIGHS
AT SOME LOCATIONS, TO INCLUDE MEDFORD, WHERE THE HIGH SHOULD END
UP AT ABOUT 110F, GIVE OR TAKE 2 DEGREES. THIS WILL LIKELY BREAK
THE RECORD OF 108F SET IN 1922. MANY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TODAY. OF NOTE, GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 5F COOLER THAN TODAY`S DUE TO SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER FOR MOST
AREAS, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OTHER`S PRIMARILY CALIFORNIA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE LASSEN NATIONAL PARK ARE THIS
AFTERNOON. WE`VE ALSO SEEN A COUPLE OF CELLS GO UP IN OUR AREA,
ONE OVER MOUNT SHASTA AND THE OTHER WEST OF LAKEVIEW. WITH VERY
WEAK STEERING WINDS, THESE HAVE COLLAPSED BEFORE SUFFICIENT
CHARGES DIFFERENTIAL DEVELOPED TO PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. WE DO EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE, THESE
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO BE THE PULSE TYPE, WHICH MEANS THAT
STEERING FLOW IS WEAK, AND THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE VERY
LITTLE AND COLLAPSE WITHIN AND SHORT TIME OF FORMING. SUCH STORMS
CAN PRODUCE BRIEF RAINFALL UNDER THE DOWNDRAFT, BUT ALSO LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS IN THEIR PERIPHERY AND WHEN COLLAPSING. NEW CELLS
MAY FORM OFF OF THE OUTFLOW OF THE INITIAL ONES.

THE FORECAST FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDES LOOKS ON
TRACK. WHILE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED COVERAGE COULD
EXCEED ISOLATED COVERAGE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND PORTIONS
OF KLAMATH COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, OTHER GUIDANCE
INDICATES MORNING CLOUD COVER THERE ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING. THUS, WITH MIXED SIGNALS, CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW
THAT SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY,
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY. WE EXPECT STORMS ON
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN OREGON AROUND 10 KNOTS. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM FIRST IN SISKIYOU
AND MODOC COUNTY AND THEN PROPAGATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A
MID-LEVEL WAVE INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. IT`S A SUBTLE FEATURES, BUT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME STORMS COULD REACH THE WEST SIDE ON SUNDAY, BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THE FLOW TO BE A LITTLE TOO WEAK ACROSS THE
SISKIYOUS AND MOISTURE TO BE SUB-PAR FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
WEST OF THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.

GUIDANCE, OVERALL, HAS INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT OVER THE
AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF OF THE COAST PUSHES EASTWARD, PUTTING US IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND, POSSIBLY, SOME WITH WETTING
PRECIPITATION. WE EXPECT THAT THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A
WELCOME COOL DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEST SIDE DOES RUN THE
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT, THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF THE SISKIYOUS AND FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD. BTL

AVIATION...FOR THE 02/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND THE SOUTH COAST
NEAR BROOKINGS MAY NOT CLEAR UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE SAME AREAS AGAIN THIS
EVENING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER
SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES.

MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE HOTTEST DAY
WILL BE TODAY. AN INVERSION WILL BRING CONTINUED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY POOR RECOVERIES TO MANY RIDGES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ALOFT IS INCREASING TODAY AND WILL INCREASE
FURTHER ON FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. TODAY, THE MAIN THREAT FOR STORMS IS
OVER MODOC BUT EXTENDS TO THE WEST INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. ON FRIDAY, EXPECT A
MOISTURE PLUME TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECTED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE
CASCADES EAST. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO
MODOC COUNTY AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES.

ON SATURDAY, EXPECT A SIMILAR AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT STORMS MAY BE SCATTERED, MAINLY IN MODOC AND NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. HAVE HEADLINED
FOR THESE STORMS AND WILL CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES FOR THE SATURDAY EVENT WITH THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE.
THROUGH SATURDAY, GIVEN A RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION, EXPECT
STORMS TO HAVE WETTING RAINS, MAINLY IN THE CORE OF THE STORM.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
CONTINUING CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CASCADES
EAST IN OREGON AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, STORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CASCADES, MAINLY FOR JACKSON COUNTY AND
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL WITH MODELS SHOW
PERIODS OF SOUTH FLOW BRINGING STORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
 PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
 FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
 PZZ376.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

MAS/BTL/BPN/CC



000
FXUS66 KMFR 030356
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
856 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE TEMPERATURE AT ROGUE VALLEY INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT REACHED 107 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WAS ONE DEGREE
SHY OF THE RECORD (108) SET IN 1922. IT APPEARED MOST OF THE DAY
WE`D AT LEAST TIE OR BREAK THE RECORD (OUTPACING YESTERDAY BY A
FEW DEGREES), BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON CAUSED
THE TEMPERATURE TO LEVEL OFF. TWO RECORDS WERE SET/TIED TODAY
(PREVIOUS RECORD IN PARENTHESES): MOUNT SHASTA: 99 (99 IN 2013)
AND MONTAGUE: 106 (105 IN 2013).

WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL LOWERING OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT IT WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS
NEAR OR ABOVE 100 IN MEDFORD EACH AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE, SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WERE ABLE TO IGNITE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. TWO OF THE STRONGER CELLS
THAT PROMPTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS FOR LARGE HAIL WERE
LOCATED IN EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY...BETWEEN TENNANT AND LAVA BEDS
NATIONAL PARK. VARIOUS LIGHTNING NETWORKS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM
75-150 CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES WITH THESE 2 CELLS. SINCE THE STORM
MOTIONS WERE NEGLIGIBLE, THE STORMS PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL
BENEATH THEIR CORES WITH RADAR ESTIMATED AMOUNTS IN THESE
LOCATIONS OF 0.50-2.00 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. A
PORTABLE RAWS NEAR ONE STORM GOT 0.26 OF AN INCH, BUT WAS ON THE
EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS OUT THERE
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PORTIONS OF MODOC
COUNTY NORTH OF ALTURAS AND ALSO LAKE COUNTY NEAR LAKEVIEW. THESE
SHOULD DWINDLE OVERNIGHT, BUT MAY NOT GO AWAY COMPLETELY, SO WE
HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

WE SHOULD HAVE A REPEAT ON FRIDAY WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE
CASCADES AND OVER TO THE EAST SIDE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS ARE STILL PEGGING THE BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS
SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS AND TRINITY ALPS OVER TO
THE MEDICINE LAKE REGION/WEST SIDE OF LAVA BEDS NATIONAL
PARK...AND ALSO NEAR OR JUST WEST OF LAKEVIEW. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN THIS EVENING TO AREAS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO AND THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS. CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATE MORNING. OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON
CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE
COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. -BPN
-BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND. -BPN/SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE ZERO TO 4 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
HIGHER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. I`VE NUDGED UP FORECAST HIGHS
AT SOME LOCATIONS, TO INCLUDE MEDFORD, WHERE THE HIGH SHOULD END
UP AT ABOUT 110F, GIVE OR TAKE 2 DEGREES. THIS WILL LIKELY BREAK
THE RECORD OF 108F SET IN 1922. MANY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TODAY. OF NOTE, GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 5F COOLER THAN TODAY`S DUE TO SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER FOR MOST
AREAS, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OTHER`S PRIMARILY CALIFORNIA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE LASSEN NATIONAL PARK ARE THIS
AFTERNOON. WE`VE ALSO SEEN A COUPLE OF CELLS GO UP IN OUR AREA,
ONE OVER MOUNT SHASTA AND THE OTHER WEST OF LAKEVIEW. WITH VERY
WEAK STEERING WINDS, THESE HAVE COLLAPSED BEFORE SUFFICIENT
CHARGES DIFFERENTIAL DEVELOPED TO PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. WE DO EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE, THESE
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO BE THE PULSE TYPE, WHICH MEANS THAT
STEERING FLOW IS WEAK, AND THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE VERY
LITTLE AND COLLAPSE WITHIN AND SHORT TIME OF FORMING. SUCH STORMS
CAN PRODUCE BRIEF RAINFALL UNDER THE DOWNDRAFT, BUT ALSO LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS IN THEIR PERIPHERY AND WHEN COLLAPSING. NEW CELLS
MAY FORM OFF OF THE OUTFLOW OF THE INITIAL ONES.

THE FORECAST FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDES LOOKS ON
TRACK. WHILE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED COVERAGE COULD
EXCEED ISOLATED COVERAGE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND PORTIONS
OF KLAMATH COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, OTHER GUIDANCE
INDICATES MORNING CLOUD COVER THERE ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING. THUS, WITH MIXED SIGNALS, CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW
THAT SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY,
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY. WE EXPECT STORMS ON
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN OREGON AROUND 10 KNOTS. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM FIRST IN SISKIYOU
AND MODOC COUNTY AND THEN PROPAGATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A
MID-LEVEL WAVE INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. IT`S A SUBTLE FEATURES, BUT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME STORMS COULD REACH THE WEST SIDE ON SUNDAY, BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THE FLOW TO BE A LITTLE TOO WEAK ACROSS THE
SISKIYOUS AND MOISTURE TO BE SUB-PAR FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
WEST OF THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.

GUIDANCE, OVERALL, HAS INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT OVER THE
AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF OF THE COAST PUSHES EASTWARD, PUTTING US IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND, POSSIBLY, SOME WITH WETTING
PRECIPITATION. WE EXPECT THAT THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A
WELCOME COOL DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEST SIDE DOES RUN THE
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT, THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF THE SISKIYOUS AND FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD. BTL

AVIATION...FOR THE 02/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND THE SOUTH COAST
NEAR BROOKINGS MAY NOT CLEAR UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE SAME AREAS AGAIN THIS
EVENING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER
SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES.

MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE HOTTEST DAY
WILL BE TODAY. AN INVERSION WILL BRING CONTINUED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY POOR RECOVERIES TO MANY RIDGES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ALOFT IS INCREASING TODAY AND WILL INCREASE
FURTHER ON FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. TODAY, THE MAIN THREAT FOR STORMS IS
OVER MODOC BUT EXTENDS TO THE WEST INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. ON FRIDAY, EXPECT A
MOISTURE PLUME TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECTED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE
CASCADES EAST. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO
MODOC COUNTY AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES.

ON SATURDAY, EXPECT A SIMILAR AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT STORMS MAY BE SCATTERED, MAINLY IN MODOC AND NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. HAVE HEADLINED
FOR THESE STORMS AND WILL CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES FOR THE SATURDAY EVENT WITH THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE.
THROUGH SATURDAY, GIVEN A RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION, EXPECT
STORMS TO HAVE WETTING RAINS, MAINLY IN THE CORE OF THE STORM.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
CONTINUING CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CASCADES
EAST IN OREGON AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, STORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CASCADES, MAINLY FOR JACKSON COUNTY AND
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL WITH MODELS SHOW
PERIODS OF SOUTH FLOW BRINGING STORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
 PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
 FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
 PZZ376.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

MAS/BTL/BPN/CC




000
FXUS66 KPQR 030349
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
849 PM PDT THU JUL  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS THE MAIN FEATURE OVER
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK TROUGHING NORTH IN CANADA AND AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THUNDERSTORM MOISTURE WILL
MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT MAY BEGIN BRUSHING THE LANE
COUNTY CASCADES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. A SLIGHT LOWERING OF 500 MB
HEIGHTS FROM THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN CANADA MAY INCREASE THE MARINE
LAYER ALONG THE COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND EASE TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES INLAND...BUT SUNDAY LOOKS ABOUT AS WARM AGAIN AS TODAY
INLAND. ONLY GRADUAL CHANGES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS A FEW MORE
THUNDERSTORMS WORKING THEIR WAY NORTH ALONG THE CASCADES AND TEMPS
INLAND DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...NW TO SE ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION
RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COL. OVERALL THIS RESULTS IN A
CONTINUED RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN.

LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING ARE PRETTY SPARSE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SUSPECT SIMILAR COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING NEAR THE
COAST WHEN COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF
THE LOW CLOUDS AND LOCAL FOG ALONG THE COAST IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. ALSO BUMPED TEMPS FOR FRIDAY UP A BIT ABOVE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES DOWN FROM TODAY.

THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY SAT AS
UPPER HEIGHTS COMING DOWN A LITTLE...AIDED IN PART BY A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE WEST CANADA UPPER LOW...AND THIS SUGGESTS
DAYTIME HIGHS TO COME DOWN A FEW DEGREES MAINLY SATURDAY. MODEL H8
TEMPS HOWEVER REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 22 DEGREE C RANGE...SO EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE 90 THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS. AS THE SOUTHWEST CANADA SHORTWAVE MOVES ON...UPPER HEIGHTS
REBOUND AND H8 TEMPS RETURN ON SUNDAY TO NEAR THE VALUES FROM TODAY.
WITH THE QUICK RETURN TO VERY HOT WEATHER SUNDAY...THE DAY SHIFT
EXTENDED THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY OUT THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THAT. ANY SLIGHT LOWERING OF TEMPS BY SATURDAY WILL
STILL RESULT IN TEMPS ABOVE 90 INLAND. MARINE CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. WITH THE STRENGTHENED ONSHORE
FLOW EXPECT TO SEE SOME MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN LESS CLOUDS AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH
AMPLITUDE 500 MB REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND OR/WA IN WEAK
TROUGH OR COL SEPARATING SWRN U.S. RIDGE AND ERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK
RIDGE. DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGHINESS...AMS REMAINS WARM WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE OCCURS IN
OVERALL PATTERN INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND PACIFIC CUTOFF MAKING SLOW EWD
PROGRESS TOWARD CNTRL CA CSTLN. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER
MAINLY IN AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER OR/WA/WRN CANADA AND POSITION OF
ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF. DESPITE THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY MID
WEEK...WARM TEMPERATURES NEARLY CERTAIN /10-12 DEG ABOVE NORMAL/ BUT
INFLUENCE OF ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF PROVIDES A CHANCE OF INLAND/MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY-THURSDAY. BRIGHT
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR NEXT 24 HRS AT INLAND TAF SITES UNDER
STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. VFR ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL
GIVE WAY TO IFR STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT LATER THAN LAST
NIGHT...MOST LIKELY FILLING IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 06Z-08Z FRI.
SHOULD STILL SEE SOME MARINE STRATUS INLAND UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER
TONIGHT AND COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS TO KKLS AND POSSIBLY
KSPB. THE STRATUS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL REACH THE PORTLAND METRO
TERMINALS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /27
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SO
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TILL SAT MORNING. ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE INNER WATERS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH LATE THIS
EVENING BEFORE FALLING BELOW 20 KT. THERMAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS REMAINING BELOW 20
KT INTO NEXT WEEK.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND A
DOMINATE PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. AS SUCH...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TILL SAT MORNING FOR SQUARE SEAS. STRONG WINDS
OFF OF VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL PRODUCE A BUILDING NW SWELL THIS WEEKEND
THAT COULD PUSH SEAS ABOVE 10 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK
TO AROUND 4 TO 5 FT.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA- LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 030349
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
849 PM PDT THU JUL  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS THE MAIN FEATURE OVER
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK TROUGHING NORTH IN CANADA AND AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THUNDERSTORM MOISTURE WILL
MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT MAY BEGIN BRUSHING THE LANE
COUNTY CASCADES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. A SLIGHT LOWERING OF 500 MB
HEIGHTS FROM THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN CANADA MAY INCREASE THE MARINE
LAYER ALONG THE COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND EASE TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES INLAND...BUT SUNDAY LOOKS ABOUT AS WARM AGAIN AS TODAY
INLAND. ONLY GRADUAL CHANGES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS A FEW MORE
THUNDERSTORMS WORKING THEIR WAY NORTH ALONG THE CASCADES AND TEMPS
INLAND DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...NW TO SE ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION
RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COL. OVERALL THIS RESULTS IN A
CONTINUED RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN.

LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING ARE PRETTY SPARSE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SUSPECT SIMILAR COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING NEAR THE
COAST WHEN COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF
THE LOW CLOUDS AND LOCAL FOG ALONG THE COAST IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. ALSO BUMPED TEMPS FOR FRIDAY UP A BIT ABOVE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES DOWN FROM TODAY.

THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY SAT AS
UPPER HEIGHTS COMING DOWN A LITTLE...AIDED IN PART BY A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE WEST CANADA UPPER LOW...AND THIS SUGGESTS
DAYTIME HIGHS TO COME DOWN A FEW DEGREES MAINLY SATURDAY. MODEL H8
TEMPS HOWEVER REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 22 DEGREE C RANGE...SO EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE 90 THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS. AS THE SOUTHWEST CANADA SHORTWAVE MOVES ON...UPPER HEIGHTS
REBOUND AND H8 TEMPS RETURN ON SUNDAY TO NEAR THE VALUES FROM TODAY.
WITH THE QUICK RETURN TO VERY HOT WEATHER SUNDAY...THE DAY SHIFT
EXTENDED THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY OUT THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THAT. ANY SLIGHT LOWERING OF TEMPS BY SATURDAY WILL
STILL RESULT IN TEMPS ABOVE 90 INLAND. MARINE CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. WITH THE STRENGTHENED ONSHORE
FLOW EXPECT TO SEE SOME MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN LESS CLOUDS AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH
AMPLITUDE 500 MB REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND OR/WA IN WEAK
TROUGH OR COL SEPARATING SWRN U.S. RIDGE AND ERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK
RIDGE. DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGHINESS...AMS REMAINS WARM WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE OCCURS IN
OVERALL PATTERN INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND PACIFIC CUTOFF MAKING SLOW EWD
PROGRESS TOWARD CNTRL CA CSTLN. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER
MAINLY IN AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER OR/WA/WRN CANADA AND POSITION OF
ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF. DESPITE THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY MID
WEEK...WARM TEMPERATURES NEARLY CERTAIN /10-12 DEG ABOVE NORMAL/ BUT
INFLUENCE OF ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF PROVIDES A CHANCE OF INLAND/MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY-THURSDAY. BRIGHT
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR NEXT 24 HRS AT INLAND TAF SITES UNDER
STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. VFR ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL
GIVE WAY TO IFR STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT LATER THAN LAST
NIGHT...MOST LIKELY FILLING IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 06Z-08Z FRI.
SHOULD STILL SEE SOME MARINE STRATUS INLAND UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER
TONIGHT AND COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS TO KKLS AND POSSIBLY
KSPB. THE STRATUS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL REACH THE PORTLAND METRO
TERMINALS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /27
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SO
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TILL SAT MORNING. ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE INNER WATERS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH LATE THIS
EVENING BEFORE FALLING BELOW 20 KT. THERMAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS REMAINING BELOW 20
KT INTO NEXT WEEK.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND A
DOMINATE PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. AS SUCH...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TILL SAT MORNING FOR SQUARE SEAS. STRONG WINDS
OFF OF VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL PRODUCE A BUILDING NW SWELL THIS WEEKEND
THAT COULD PUSH SEAS ABOVE 10 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK
TO AROUND 4 TO 5 FT.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA- LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 030300
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
900 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...WEAK CONVECTION /ISOLATED SHOWERS/ NEAR THE OR/NV
BORDER HAS ENDED. THEREFORE...WILL BE UPDATING TO REMOVE MENTION
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE NEAR THE NEVADA
BORDER MAY CREEP A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF SE
OREGON AND SW IDAHO JUST NORTH OF THE NEVADA BORDER. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON PAR WITH
TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. AREAS OF SMOKE LOCALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES IN
THE KBNO AND KBKE AREAS. SURFACE WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST 10-15
KTS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY 06Z. WINDS ALOFT...WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUED HOT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON/
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH SATURDAY.  DRY ELSEWHERE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WITH UPPER HIGH STILL OVER THE GREAT BASIN...BUT A SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE UPPER WINDS WILL TURN TO WNW
AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING.  FOR BOISE...SATURDAY SHOULD REACH 100F
AND TIE THEIR RECORD FOR MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH NINE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
WRN CANADA WILL PUSH THE GREAT BASIN HIGH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO COOL
TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS SUNDAY AND FINALLY KEEP MAX TEMPS BELOW 100F...
EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND NEAR BRUNEAU AND GRANDVIEW IN
IDAHO.  THUNDERSTORMS IN SRN-MOST ZONES SATURDAY EVENING MAY SEND
OUTFLOW WINDS NWD INTO THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS.  CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS WARM SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED
/BY THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER/ THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD MONDAY AND THE UPPER RIDGE REAMPLIFIES IN ITS
WAKE. EXPECT VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG
HEATING IN THIS PATTERN - WARRANTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS /ACROSS SE ORE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW ID/EACH
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS SOME HOPE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE
NEXT WEEK AS THE 12Z ECMWF BRINGS A CLOSED PACIFIC LOW INLAND LATE
FRIDAY...BUT MODEL DISCREPANCIES ABOUND AND CONFIDENCE IN COOLER
CONDITIONS REMAINS LOW.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....LC/MT



000
FXUS66 KMFR 022215
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
315 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE ZERO TO 4 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
HIGHER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. I`VE NUDGED UP FORECAST HIGHS
AT SOME LOCATIONS, TO INCLUDED MEDFORD, WHERE THE HIGH SHOULD END
UP AT ABOUT 110F, GIVE OR TAKE 2 DEGREES. THIS WILL LIKELY BREAK
THE RECORD OF 108F SET IN 1922. MANY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TODAY. OF NOTE, GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 5F COOLER THAN TODAY`S DUE TO SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER FOR MOST
AREAS, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OTHER`S PRIMARILY CALIFORNIA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE LASSEN NATIONAL PARK ARE THIS
AFTERNOON. WE`VE ALSO SEEN A COUPLE OF CELLS GO UP IN OUR AREA,
ONE OVER MOUNT SHASTA AND THE OTHER WEST OF LAKEVIEW. WITH VERY
WEAK STEERING WINDS, THESE HAVE COLLAPSED BEFORE SUFFICIENT
CHARGES DIFFERENTIAL DEVELOPED TO PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. WE DO EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE, THESE
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO BE THE PULSE TYPE, WHICH MEANS THAT
STEERING FLOW IS WEAK, AND THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE VERY
LITTLE AND COLLAPSE WITHIN AND SHORT TIME OF FORMING. SUCH STORMS
CAN PRODUCE BRIEF RAINFALL UNDER THE DOWNDRAFT, BUT ALSO LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS IN THEIR PERIPHERY AND WHEN COLLAPSING. NEW CELLS
MAY FORM OFF OF THE OUTFLOW OF THE INITIAL ONES.

THE FORECAST FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDES LOOKS ON
TRACK. WHILE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED COVERAGE COULD
EXCEED ISOLATED COVERAGE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND PORTIONS
OF KLAMATH COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, OTHER GUIDANCE
INDICATES MORNING CLOUD COVER THERE ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING. THUS, WITH MIXED SIGNALS, CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW
THAT SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY,
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY. WE EXPECT STORMS ON
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN OREGON AROUND 10 KNOTS. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM FIRST IN SISKIYOU
AND MODOC COUNTY AND THEN PROPAGATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A
MID-LEVEL WAVE INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. IT`S A SUBTLE FEATURES, BUT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME STORMS COULD REACH THE WEST SIDE ON SUNDAY, BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THE FLOW TO BE A LITTLE TOO WEAK ACROSS THE
SISKIYOUS AND MOISTURE TO BE SUB-PAR FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
WEST OF THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.

GUIDANCE, OVERALL, HAS INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT OVER THE
AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF OF THE COAST PUSHES EASTWARD, PUTTING US IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND, POSSIBLY, SOME WITH WETTING
PRECIPITATION. WE EXPECT THAT THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A
WELCOME COOL DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEST SIDE DOES RUN THE
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT, THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF THE SISKIYOUS AND FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND THE SOUTH COAST
NEAR BROOKINGS MAY NOT CLEAR UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE SAME AREAS AGAIN THIS
EVENING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER
SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE HOTTEST DAY
WILL BE TODAY. AN INVERSION WILL BRING CONTINUED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
POOR RECOVERIES TO MANY RIDGES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.  MOISTURE ALOFT IS INCREASING TODAY AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER
ON  FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. TODAY, THE MAIN THREAT FOR STORMS IS OVER MODOC BUT
EXTENDS TO THE WEST INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. ON FRIDAY, EXPECT A MOISTURE PLUME TO MOVE
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN
EXPECTED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST. EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO MODOC COUNTY AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.  ON SATURDAY,
EXPECT A SIMILAR AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT STORMS MAY BE
SCATTERED, MAINLY IN MODOC AND NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH
AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. HAVE HEADLINED FOR THESE STORMS AND WILL
CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR THE SATURDAY
EVENT WITH THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE. THROUGH SATURDAY, GIVEN A
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION, EXPECT STORMS TO HAVE WETTING RAINS,
MAINLY IN THE CORE OF THE STORM.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
CONTINUING CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CASCADES EAST
IN OREGON AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, STORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CASCADES,  MAINLY FOR JACKSON COUNTY AND
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL WITH MODELS SHOW
PERIODS OF SOUTH FLOW BRINGING STORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
  PZZ376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/CC/BPN



000
FXUS66 KPQR 022153
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
255 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE CURRENT
HOT SPELL APPEARS LIKELY TO BE SUNDAY. SLIGHT COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME...BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...NW TO SE ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
TO THE S OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COL. OVERALL THIS RESULTS IN A CONTINUED RATHER
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN.

THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN A BIT FRI AND
SAT. UPPER HEIGHTS COMING DOWN A LITTLE...AIDED IN PART BY A
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE W CANADA UPPER LOW...SUGGEST DAYTIME
HIGHS TO COME DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI AND SAT. MODEL H8 TEMPS HOWEVER
REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 22 DEG C RANGE...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS LIKELY TO
REMAIN ABOVE 90 THROUGH SAT IN THE INLAND VALLEYS. AS THE SW CANADA
SHORTWAVE MOVES ON...UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND AND H8 TEMPS RETURN TO
NEAR THURSDAYS NUMBERS. WITH THE QUICK RETURN TO VERY HOT WEATHER
SUN...WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY OUT THROUGH SUN. MARINE
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. WITH THE
STRENGTHENED ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT TO SEE MORE CLOUDS PUSHED UP THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BY SAT MORNING...THEN LESS CLOUDS AGAIN SUN MORNING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINS WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE 500 MB REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND OR/WA IN WEAK TROUGH OR COL SEPARATING SWRN U.S. RIDGE AND ERN
PACIFIC/GULF OF AK RIDGE. DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGHINESS...AMS REMAINS
WARM WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LITTLE
CHANGE OCCURS IN OVERALL PATTERN INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...BLOCK
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND PACIFIC CUTOFF
MAKING SLOW EWD PROGRESS TOWARD CNTRL CA CSTLN. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
AND GEFS MEMBERS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER MAINLY IN AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER OR/WA/WRN
CANADA AND POSITION OF ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF. DESPITE THE INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY MID WEEK...WARM TEMPERATURES NEARLY CERTAIN /10-12 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL/ BUT INFLUENCE OF ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF PROVIDES A CHANCE
OF INLAND/MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY-THURSDAY. BRIGHT
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT INLAND TAF SITE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...MARINE
STRATUS LOOKS TO PUSH INLAND UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TONIGHT AND
COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS TO KKLS AND POSSIBLY KSPB. THE
STRATUS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL REACH THE PORTLAND METRO
TERMINALS.

MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST HAS GENERALLY CLEARED LEAVING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 05Z. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE COAST TONIGHT AFTER 05Z. EXPECT FOG/STRATUS TO FILL
IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...REACHING KAST AFTER 09Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
SO DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TILL SAT MORNING.
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER THE INNER WATERS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH
LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE FALLING BELOW 20 KT. THERMAL LOW PRES
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS
REMAINING BELOW 20 KT INTO NEXT WEEK.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND A
DOMINATE PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. AS SUCH...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TILL SAT MORNING FOR SQUARE SEAS. STRONG
WINDS OFF OF VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL PRODUCE A BUILDING NW SWELL
THIS WEEKEND THAT COULD PUSH SEAS ABOVE 10 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
EARLY NEXT WEEK TO AROUND 4 TO 5 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR NW OREGON INTERIOR
     LOWLANDS...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST
     RANGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR LOWER COLUMBIA AND
     SW WASHINGTON INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT
     10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 022110
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
210 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD
PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THAT WILL HAVE THE MINOR IMPACT OF SLIGHTLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY BUT THEN SOME GRADUAL COOLING OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100
ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH IS STILL
10 O 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WILL NEED TO WATCH SOME MOISTURE
CREEPING UP INTO SOUTHERN OREGON ON SUNDAY AS SOME OF THIS COULD
INFRINGE ON CENTRAL OREGON IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS THE MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS A
FOUR CORNERS HIGH CONTINUES TO HOLD WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON EACH DAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
ATTEMPTS TO SPIN UP MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE AREA.
ALL OTHER AREAS CAN EXPECT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.  MODELS HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING FURTHER INLAND
EACH DAY...BUT IS STILL INDICATING THAT A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CUT OF
MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY NORTH OF DESCHUTES...CROOK...AND GRANT
COUNTY.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS. WEBER


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT SCT
CUMULUS AND CIRRUS AT KRDM AND KBDN TODAY. SURFACE WINDS 5-15 KTS.
WEBER


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCHES WILL BE UPGRADED TO RED
FLAG WARNINGS FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  THIS MAINLY
COVERS THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN KITTITAS VALLEY, THE HANFORD DISTRICT, AND NORTH CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL OREGON. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING A STRONG WIND EVENT. THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER WILL OBSERVE BREEZY
WINDS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE AND AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVE AND 10-20 MPH WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.  DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 8-18
PERCENT...AND VEGETATION IS VERY DRY.  IT TAKES LITTLE WIND TO CAUSE
RAPID FIRE SPREAD. A NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.  THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH IN
THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND FROM THE TRI-CITES NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY DURING THIS TIME...THEREFORE THE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE ZONE 675 (YAKIMA VALLEY AND HANFORD
DISTRICT) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67 103  67  99 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  73 104  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  69 106  68 102 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  68 100  69  97 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  68 104  69 101 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  65 103  65  99 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  61  98  57  95 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  58  97  59  94 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  62 101  59  98 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  72 101  69  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ041-510-511.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ610-640-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WAZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ024.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89



000
FXUS66 KPDT 022110
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
210 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD
PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THAT WILL HAVE THE MINOR IMPACT OF SLIGHTLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY BUT THEN SOME GRADUAL COOLING OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100
ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH IS STILL
10 O 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WILL NEED TO WATCH SOME MOISTURE
CREEPING UP INTO SOUTHERN OREGON ON SUNDAY AS SOME OF THIS COULD
INFRINGE ON CENTRAL OREGON IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS THE MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS A
FOUR CORNERS HIGH CONTINUES TO HOLD WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON EACH DAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
ATTEMPTS TO SPIN UP MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE AREA.
ALL OTHER AREAS CAN EXPECT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.  MODELS HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING FURTHER INLAND
EACH DAY...BUT IS STILL INDICATING THAT A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CUT OF
MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY NORTH OF DESCHUTES...CROOK...AND GRANT
COUNTY.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS. WEBER


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT SCT
CUMULUS AND CIRRUS AT KRDM AND KBDN TODAY. SURFACE WINDS 5-15 KTS.
WEBER


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCHES WILL BE UPGRADED TO RED
FLAG WARNINGS FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  THIS MAINLY
COVERS THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN KITTITAS VALLEY, THE HANFORD DISTRICT, AND NORTH CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL OREGON. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING A STRONG WIND EVENT. THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER WILL OBSERVE BREEZY
WINDS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE AND AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVE AND 10-20 MPH WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.  DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 8-18
PERCENT...AND VEGETATION IS VERY DRY.  IT TAKES LITTLE WIND TO CAUSE
RAPID FIRE SPREAD. A NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.  THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH IN
THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND FROM THE TRI-CITES NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY DURING THIS TIME...THEREFORE THE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE ZONE 675 (YAKIMA VALLEY AND HANFORD
DISTRICT) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67 103  67  99 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  73 104  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  69 106  68 102 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  68 100  69  97 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  68 104  69 101 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  65 103  65  99 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  61  98  57  95 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  58  97  59  94 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  62 101  59  98 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  72 101  69  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ041-510-511.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ610-640-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WAZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ024.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89




000
FXUS65 KBOI 022041
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...CONTINUED HOT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON/
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH SATURDAY.  DRY ELSEWHERE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WITH UPPER HIGH STILL OVER THE GREAT BASIN...BUT A SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE UPPER WINDS WILL TURN TO WNW
AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING.  FOR BOISE...SATURDAY SHOULD REACH 100F
AND TIE THEIR RECORD FOR MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH NINE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
WRN CANADA WILL PUSH THE GREAT BASIN HIGH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO COOL
TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS SUNDAY AND FINALLY KEEP MAX TEMPS BELOW 100F...
EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND NEAR BRUNEAU AND GRANDVIEW IN
IDAHO.  THUNDERSTORMS IN SRN-MOST ZONES SATURDAY EVENING MAY SEND
OUTFLOW WINDS NWD INTO THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS.  CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS WARM SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED
/BY THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER/ THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD MONDAY AND THE UPPER RIDGE REAMPLIFIES IN ITS
WAKE. EXPECT VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG
HEATING IN THIS PATTERN - WARRANTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS /ACROSS SE ORE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW ID/EACH
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS SOME HOPE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE
NEXT WEEK AS THE 12Z ECMWF BRINGS A CLOSED PACIFIC LOW INLAND LATE
FRIDAY...BUT MODEL DISCREPANCIES ABOUND AND CONFIDENCE IN COOLER
CONDITIONS REMAINS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE OREGON-NEVADA
BORDER THROUGH 04Z. N/NW SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS -
BECOMING LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN AFTER 04Z. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 15 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....LC/MT
AVIATION.....MT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 022041
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...CONTINUED HOT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON/
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH SATURDAY.  DRY ELSEWHERE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WITH UPPER HIGH STILL OVER THE GREAT BASIN...BUT A SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE UPPER WINDS WILL TURN TO WNW
AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING.  FOR BOISE...SATURDAY SHOULD REACH 100F
AND TIE THEIR RECORD FOR MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH NINE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
WRN CANADA WILL PUSH THE GREAT BASIN HIGH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO COOL
TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS SUNDAY AND FINALLY KEEP MAX TEMPS BELOW 100F...
EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND NEAR BRUNEAU AND GRANDVIEW IN
IDAHO.  THUNDERSTORMS IN SRN-MOST ZONES SATURDAY EVENING MAY SEND
OUTFLOW WINDS NWD INTO THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS.  CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS WARM SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED
/BY THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER/ THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD MONDAY AND THE UPPER RIDGE REAMPLIFIES IN ITS
WAKE. EXPECT VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG
HEATING IN THIS PATTERN - WARRANTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS /ACROSS SE ORE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW ID/EACH
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS SOME HOPE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE
NEXT WEEK AS THE 12Z ECMWF BRINGS A CLOSED PACIFIC LOW INLAND LATE
FRIDAY...BUT MODEL DISCREPANCIES ABOUND AND CONFIDENCE IN COOLER
CONDITIONS REMAINS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE OREGON-NEVADA
BORDER THROUGH 04Z. N/NW SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS -
BECOMING LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN AFTER 04Z. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 15 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....LC/MT
AVIATION.....MT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 022041
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...CONTINUED HOT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON/
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH SATURDAY.  DRY ELSEWHERE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WITH UPPER HIGH STILL OVER THE GREAT BASIN...BUT A SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE UPPER WINDS WILL TURN TO WNW
AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING.  FOR BOISE...SATURDAY SHOULD REACH 100F
AND TIE THEIR RECORD FOR MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH NINE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
WRN CANADA WILL PUSH THE GREAT BASIN HIGH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO COOL
TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS SUNDAY AND FINALLY KEEP MAX TEMPS BELOW 100F...
EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND NEAR BRUNEAU AND GRANDVIEW IN
IDAHO.  THUNDERSTORMS IN SRN-MOST ZONES SATURDAY EVENING MAY SEND
OUTFLOW WINDS NWD INTO THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS.  CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS WARM SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED
/BY THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER/ THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD MONDAY AND THE UPPER RIDGE REAMPLIFIES IN ITS
WAKE. EXPECT VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG
HEATING IN THIS PATTERN - WARRANTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS /ACROSS SE ORE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW ID/EACH
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS SOME HOPE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE
NEXT WEEK AS THE 12Z ECMWF BRINGS A CLOSED PACIFIC LOW INLAND LATE
FRIDAY...BUT MODEL DISCREPANCIES ABOUND AND CONFIDENCE IN COOLER
CONDITIONS REMAINS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE OREGON-NEVADA
BORDER THROUGH 04Z. N/NW SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS -
BECOMING LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN AFTER 04Z. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 15 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....LC/MT
AVIATION.....MT




000
FXUS66 KPDT 021737 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1037 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NEAR RECORD HEAT EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HEAT
ADVISORIES CONTINUING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY BUT DO EXPECT SOME INCREASED
BREEZY WEST WINDS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY NIGHT IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT SCT
CUMULUS AND CIRRUS AT KRDM AND KBDN TODAY. SURFACE WINDS 5-15 KTS.
WEBER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE ZONES
THAT COVER PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN, THE KITTITAS AND YAKIMA
VALLEYS, THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, AND
CENTRAL OREGON.  FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THE WIND CONCERNS...AS WINDS
INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
CASCADES GAPS AND PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I DON`T ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS BUT ENOUGH
WINDS TO WARRANT A WATCH...AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE
TEENS FOR MOST OF THIS AREA.  SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
FOURTH OF JULY.  WISTER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE 4TH OF JULY...HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN WARMING ALOFT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
HOTTER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 100S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE ON FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN EVEN SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. EVEN
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY IN EASTERN AREAS. THERE MAY BE SOME COOLING ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES AS COOLER MARINE AIR BEGINS TO FILTER THROUGH THE GAPS
AND PASSES OF THE CASCADE RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 MODEL
SHOWS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY (4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY).
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST. THERE ARE NUMEROUS FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AND/OR HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING OR FRIDAY EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD AS THEY ARE
FOR NOW BUT THEY WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE ANY CHANGES TO TIMING OR
AREA ARE NEEDED. A SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED GOING
INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT THEY
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST AREA WILL
BE UNDER A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A TROUGH IN WESTERN CANADA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AS A RESULT OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 30N AND 42N AND 125-140W
OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH IN WESTERN CANADA A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS, WHICH YIELDS FLOW ALOFT
OVER REGION FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SINKING
MOTION ACROSS FORECAST FOR DRY CONDITIONS. THE CANADIAN AND GFS
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA AS THE MORE DOMINANT
FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO FORECAST AREA, WHICH ALLOWS WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT TO BRING AN INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
OREGON, THUS INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
OREGON. I CHOSE TO GO WITH THE LATTER SOLUTION.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 102  67 103  67 /   0   0   0   0
ALW 103  73 104  73 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 106  69 106  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 100  68 100  69 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 104  68 104  69 /   0   0   0   0
ELN 104  65 103  65 /   0   0   0   0
RDM 100  61  98  57 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  97  58  97  59 /   0   0   0   0
GCD 101  62 101  59 /   0   0   0   0
DLS 106  72 101  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ041-510-511.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ610-640-641.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ044.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ507.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ024.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ028.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ026-027-
     029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89




000
FXUS66 KPDT 021737 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1037 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NEAR RECORD HEAT EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HEAT
ADVISORIES CONTINUING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY BUT DO EXPECT SOME INCREASED
BREEZY WEST WINDS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY NIGHT IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT SCT
CUMULUS AND CIRRUS AT KRDM AND KBDN TODAY. SURFACE WINDS 5-15 KTS.
WEBER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE ZONES
THAT COVER PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN, THE KITTITAS AND YAKIMA
VALLEYS, THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, AND
CENTRAL OREGON.  FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THE WIND CONCERNS...AS WINDS
INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
CASCADES GAPS AND PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I DON`T ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS BUT ENOUGH
WINDS TO WARRANT A WATCH...AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE
TEENS FOR MOST OF THIS AREA.  SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
FOURTH OF JULY.  WISTER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE 4TH OF JULY...HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN WARMING ALOFT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
HOTTER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 100S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE ON FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN EVEN SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. EVEN
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY IN EASTERN AREAS. THERE MAY BE SOME COOLING ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES AS COOLER MARINE AIR BEGINS TO FILTER THROUGH THE GAPS
AND PASSES OF THE CASCADE RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 MODEL
SHOWS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY (4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY).
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST. THERE ARE NUMEROUS FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AND/OR HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING OR FRIDAY EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD AS THEY ARE
FOR NOW BUT THEY WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE ANY CHANGES TO TIMING OR
AREA ARE NEEDED. A SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED GOING
INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT THEY
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST AREA WILL
BE UNDER A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A TROUGH IN WESTERN CANADA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AS A RESULT OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 30N AND 42N AND 125-140W
OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH IN WESTERN CANADA A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS, WHICH YIELDS FLOW ALOFT
OVER REGION FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SINKING
MOTION ACROSS FORECAST FOR DRY CONDITIONS. THE CANADIAN AND GFS
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA AS THE MORE DOMINANT
FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO FORECAST AREA, WHICH ALLOWS WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT TO BRING AN INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
OREGON, THUS INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
OREGON. I CHOSE TO GO WITH THE LATTER SOLUTION.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 102  67 103  67 /   0   0   0   0
ALW 103  73 104  73 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 106  69 106  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 100  68 100  69 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 104  68 104  69 /   0   0   0   0
ELN 104  65 103  65 /   0   0   0   0
RDM 100  61  98  57 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  97  58  97  59 /   0   0   0   0
GCD 101  62 101  59 /   0   0   0   0
DLS 106  72 101  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ041-510-511.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ610-640-641.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ044.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ507.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ024.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ028.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ026-027-
     029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89




000
FXUS66 KPDT 021737 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1037 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NEAR RECORD HEAT EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HEAT
ADVISORIES CONTINUING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY BUT DO EXPECT SOME INCREASED
BREEZY WEST WINDS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY NIGHT IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT SCT
CUMULUS AND CIRRUS AT KRDM AND KBDN TODAY. SURFACE WINDS 5-15 KTS.
WEBER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE ZONES
THAT COVER PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN, THE KITTITAS AND YAKIMA
VALLEYS, THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, AND
CENTRAL OREGON.  FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THE WIND CONCERNS...AS WINDS
INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
CASCADES GAPS AND PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I DON`T ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS BUT ENOUGH
WINDS TO WARRANT A WATCH...AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE
TEENS FOR MOST OF THIS AREA.  SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
FOURTH OF JULY.  WISTER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE 4TH OF JULY...HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN WARMING ALOFT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
HOTTER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 100S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE ON FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN EVEN SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. EVEN
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY IN EASTERN AREAS. THERE MAY BE SOME COOLING ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES AS COOLER MARINE AIR BEGINS TO FILTER THROUGH THE GAPS
AND PASSES OF THE CASCADE RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 MODEL
SHOWS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY (4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY).
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST. THERE ARE NUMEROUS FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AND/OR HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING OR FRIDAY EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD AS THEY ARE
FOR NOW BUT THEY WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE ANY CHANGES TO TIMING OR
AREA ARE NEEDED. A SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED GOING
INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT THEY
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST AREA WILL
BE UNDER A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A TROUGH IN WESTERN CANADA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AS A RESULT OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 30N AND 42N AND 125-140W
OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH IN WESTERN CANADA A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS, WHICH YIELDS FLOW ALOFT
OVER REGION FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SINKING
MOTION ACROSS FORECAST FOR DRY CONDITIONS. THE CANADIAN AND GFS
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA AS THE MORE DOMINANT
FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO FORECAST AREA, WHICH ALLOWS WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT TO BRING AN INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
OREGON, THUS INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
OREGON. I CHOSE TO GO WITH THE LATTER SOLUTION.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 102  67 103  67 /   0   0   0   0
ALW 103  73 104  73 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 106  69 106  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 100  68 100  69 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 104  68 104  69 /   0   0   0   0
ELN 104  65 103  65 /   0   0   0   0
RDM 100  61  98  57 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  97  58  97  59 /   0   0   0   0
GCD 101  62 101  59 /   0   0   0   0
DLS 106  72 101  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ041-510-511.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ610-640-641.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ044.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ507.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ024.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ028.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ026-027-
     029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89



000
FXUS66 KPDT 021737 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1037 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NEAR RECORD HEAT EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HEAT
ADVISORIES CONTINUING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY BUT DO EXPECT SOME INCREASED
BREEZY WEST WINDS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY NIGHT IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT SCT
CUMULUS AND CIRRUS AT KRDM AND KBDN TODAY. SURFACE WINDS 5-15 KTS.
WEBER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE ZONES
THAT COVER PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN, THE KITTITAS AND YAKIMA
VALLEYS, THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, AND
CENTRAL OREGON.  FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THE WIND CONCERNS...AS WINDS
INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
CASCADES GAPS AND PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I DON`T ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS BUT ENOUGH
WINDS TO WARRANT A WATCH...AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE
TEENS FOR MOST OF THIS AREA.  SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
FOURTH OF JULY.  WISTER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE 4TH OF JULY...HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN WARMING ALOFT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
HOTTER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 100S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE ON FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN EVEN SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. EVEN
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY IN EASTERN AREAS. THERE MAY BE SOME COOLING ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES AS COOLER MARINE AIR BEGINS TO FILTER THROUGH THE GAPS
AND PASSES OF THE CASCADE RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 MODEL
SHOWS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY (4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY).
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST. THERE ARE NUMEROUS FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AND/OR HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING OR FRIDAY EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD AS THEY ARE
FOR NOW BUT THEY WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE ANY CHANGES TO TIMING OR
AREA ARE NEEDED. A SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED GOING
INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT THEY
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST AREA WILL
BE UNDER A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A TROUGH IN WESTERN CANADA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AS A RESULT OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 30N AND 42N AND 125-140W
OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH IN WESTERN CANADA A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS, WHICH YIELDS FLOW ALOFT
OVER REGION FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SINKING
MOTION ACROSS FORECAST FOR DRY CONDITIONS. THE CANADIAN AND GFS
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA AS THE MORE DOMINANT
FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO FORECAST AREA, WHICH ALLOWS WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT TO BRING AN INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
OREGON, THUS INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
OREGON. I CHOSE TO GO WITH THE LATTER SOLUTION.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 102  67 103  67 /   0   0   0   0
ALW 103  73 104  73 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 106  69 106  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 100  68 100  69 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 104  68 104  69 /   0   0   0   0
ELN 104  65 103  65 /   0   0   0   0
RDM 100  61  98  57 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  97  58  97  59 /   0   0   0   0
GCD 101  62 101  59 /   0   0   0   0
DLS 106  72 101  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ041-510-511.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ610-640-641.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ044.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ507.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ024.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ028.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ026-027-
     029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89



000
FXUS66 KPQR 021651
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
950 AM PDT THU JUL  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
CURRENT HOT SPELL APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY. SLIGHT COOLING LOOKS TO
OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&
.SHORT TERM...MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN RESTRICTED TO AREAS ALONG
AND NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...AND LIKELY
WILL SEE CLOUDS RECEDE QUICKLY BACK TO THE COAST TODAY. LOW LEVELS
OF 12Z SLE SOUNDING TODAY A SHADE WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z
SOUNDING...BUT MODELS SUGGEST A LITTLE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON SO ALL TOLD EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE CLOSE TO WED HIGHS.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...MODELS SUGGEST A
LITTLE MORE ONSHORE FLOW THU NIGHT AND FRI FOR SLIGHT COOLING. GFS
SHOWS 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 21C FOR KSLE AND KPDX...DOWN ABOUT A
DEGREE FROM THU. SW WA MAY GET THE BEST RELIEF...ALBEIT MINOR...FRI
WITH LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS. SAT APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR TO FRI. MAY
NEED TO EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WILL LET THE
DAY SHIFT MAKE THE CALL. ALL IN ALL... LOOKING AT A GOOD POSSIBILITY
OF ANOTHER 3 90 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS FOR MANY AREAS. THAT WOULD BE
13 90 DEGREE DAYS FOR KPDX...WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE STRONG
RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE AS THE HIGH CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NE
PACIFIC OFF THE BC COAST. HOWEVER...THE MEX GUIDANCE SHOWS SUN BEING
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG-DURATION HOT SPELL. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A 500 MB COL AREA SUN AND WITHIN A
BROAD THERMALLY-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH. ECMWF SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
TRYING TO WORK NWD FROM NRN CAL BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL REACH THE
SRN PART OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES. HOWEVER... THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY OR TWO SUN AND
MON...THE DEVELOPING TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL LOWER HEIGHTS AND
ENCOURAGE A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPS TUE AND WED AND MORE MARINE CLOUDS PUSHING INLAND. THE
REGION WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SUSCEPTIBLE A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AT
TIMES SPREADING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALOFT UP FROM THE S.
WEISHAAR &&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT INLAND TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...
MARINE STRATUS LOOKS TO PUSH INLAND UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TONIGHT
AND COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS TO KKLS AND POSSIBLY KSPB.

SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS POCKETS OF STATUS ALONG THE
NORTH COAST. EXPECT THESE POCKETS TO BURN OFF BY 19Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 05Z. STRATUS ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST SOUTH OF KONP LOOKS TO CONTINUE A BIT LONGER...BUT
SUSPECT THIS STRATUS TO DISSIPATE BY 21Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST AFTER 06Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER STABLE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...CLASSIC
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE INLAND...RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING N-NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST. DECIDED TO SHOW MORE OF A
DIURNAL TREND IN THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST...WITH WINDS SLACKENING
SOME DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WHILE THEY REMAIN MORE
STEADY OFFSHORE. EXPECT STEEP SHORT-PERIOD SEAS FROM THE GUSTY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS...AND MORE PERSISTENT STEEP SEAS IN THE
OUTER WATERS. SQUARE SEAS OF 8 FT/8 SEC ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT
BUOY 46089...SO WE ISSUED AN SCA FOR SEAS OUTER WATERS THROUGH
FRI. STRONG NW WINDS OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME SHORT PERIOD SWELL WHICH WILL AFFECT THE S
WA/N OR WATERS AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOCALLY GENERATED
WIND WAVE AND THE FRESH SWELL COULD PUSH SEAS UP TOWARDS 10-11 FT
BY SAT MORNING...SO THE SCA FOR SEAS MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED/EXPANDED EVENTUALLY.

THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OFFSHORE LATER THIS
WEEKEND...SHOVING THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT OFFSHORE AND
ALLOWING WINDS TO EASE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS SHOULD COME
DOWN AS WELL...SUBSIDING TO BACKGROUND SWELL AND LIGHT WIND WAVE
EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR NW OREGON INTERIOR
     LOWLANDS...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR LOWER COLUMBIA AND
     SW WASHINGTON INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 021651
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
950 AM PDT THU JUL  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
CURRENT HOT SPELL APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY. SLIGHT COOLING LOOKS TO
OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&
.SHORT TERM...MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN RESTRICTED TO AREAS ALONG
AND NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...AND LIKELY
WILL SEE CLOUDS RECEDE QUICKLY BACK TO THE COAST TODAY. LOW LEVELS
OF 12Z SLE SOUNDING TODAY A SHADE WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z
SOUNDING...BUT MODELS SUGGEST A LITTLE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON SO ALL TOLD EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE CLOSE TO WED HIGHS.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...MODELS SUGGEST A
LITTLE MORE ONSHORE FLOW THU NIGHT AND FRI FOR SLIGHT COOLING. GFS
SHOWS 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 21C FOR KSLE AND KPDX...DOWN ABOUT A
DEGREE FROM THU. SW WA MAY GET THE BEST RELIEF...ALBEIT MINOR...FRI
WITH LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS. SAT APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR TO FRI. MAY
NEED TO EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WILL LET THE
DAY SHIFT MAKE THE CALL. ALL IN ALL... LOOKING AT A GOOD POSSIBILITY
OF ANOTHER 3 90 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS FOR MANY AREAS. THAT WOULD BE
13 90 DEGREE DAYS FOR KPDX...WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE STRONG
RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE AS THE HIGH CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NE
PACIFIC OFF THE BC COAST. HOWEVER...THE MEX GUIDANCE SHOWS SUN BEING
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG-DURATION HOT SPELL. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A 500 MB COL AREA SUN AND WITHIN A
BROAD THERMALLY-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH. ECMWF SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
TRYING TO WORK NWD FROM NRN CAL BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL REACH THE
SRN PART OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES. HOWEVER... THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY OR TWO SUN AND
MON...THE DEVELOPING TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL LOWER HEIGHTS AND
ENCOURAGE A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPS TUE AND WED AND MORE MARINE CLOUDS PUSHING INLAND. THE
REGION WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SUSCEPTIBLE A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AT
TIMES SPREADING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALOFT UP FROM THE S.
WEISHAAR &&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT INLAND TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...
MARINE STRATUS LOOKS TO PUSH INLAND UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TONIGHT
AND COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS TO KKLS AND POSSIBLY KSPB.

SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS POCKETS OF STATUS ALONG THE
NORTH COAST. EXPECT THESE POCKETS TO BURN OFF BY 19Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 05Z. STRATUS ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST SOUTH OF KONP LOOKS TO CONTINUE A BIT LONGER...BUT
SUSPECT THIS STRATUS TO DISSIPATE BY 21Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST AFTER 06Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER STABLE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...CLASSIC
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE INLAND...RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING N-NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST. DECIDED TO SHOW MORE OF A
DIURNAL TREND IN THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST...WITH WINDS SLACKENING
SOME DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WHILE THEY REMAIN MORE
STEADY OFFSHORE. EXPECT STEEP SHORT-PERIOD SEAS FROM THE GUSTY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS...AND MORE PERSISTENT STEEP SEAS IN THE
OUTER WATERS. SQUARE SEAS OF 8 FT/8 SEC ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT
BUOY 46089...SO WE ISSUED AN SCA FOR SEAS OUTER WATERS THROUGH
FRI. STRONG NW WINDS OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME SHORT PERIOD SWELL WHICH WILL AFFECT THE S
WA/N OR WATERS AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOCALLY GENERATED
WIND WAVE AND THE FRESH SWELL COULD PUSH SEAS UP TOWARDS 10-11 FT
BY SAT MORNING...SO THE SCA FOR SEAS MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED/EXPANDED EVENTUALLY.

THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OFFSHORE LATER THIS
WEEKEND...SHOVING THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT OFFSHORE AND
ALLOWING WINDS TO EASE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS SHOULD COME
DOWN AS WELL...SUBSIDING TO BACKGROUND SWELL AND LIGHT WIND WAVE
EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR NW OREGON INTERIOR
     LOWLANDS...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR LOWER COLUMBIA AND
     SW WASHINGTON INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 021633
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
933 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE TO ADJUST SKY COVER SLIGHTLY
OVER THE MARINE WATERS, TO ADD PATCHY SMOKE FROM THE CORNER CREEK
FIRE NEAR DAYVILLE, OREGON OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
AND TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WAVES IN THE MARINE FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MANY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE TIED OR BROKEN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RECORDS THAT WERE BROKEN ACTUALLY HAD BEEN BROKEN
JUST LAST YEAR. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO BE ALMOST IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY`S, THOUGH
SOME LOCATIONS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO HOTTER AND SOME A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER. RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE TIED OR BROKEN AGAIN AT
MANY LOCATIONS.

OUR FOCUS TODAY WILL BE TO ATTEMPT TO NAIL DOWN THE THUNDERSTORM
RISK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND FOR FRIDAY
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LOOK ON TRACK. WHILE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES COVERAGE COULD EXCEED ISOLATED COVERAGE IN WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, OTHER GUIDANCE
INDICATES MORNING CLOUD COVER THERE ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING AND THE MAXIMUM THREAT FOR STORMS WILL, INSTEAD, END UP
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST IN THE TULE LAKE BASIN AND ACROSS KLAMATH
COUNTY. THUS, WITH MIXED SIGNALS, CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW THAT
SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
WE`LL CONTINUE TO WORK ON HONING IN ON THIS BETTER TODAY. FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO
DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD, BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORM MAXIMA HAS BEEN CHANGING FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL
RUN. IT DOES STAND TO REASON THAT, AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
LOWER AND MOISTURE INCREASES, SOME AREAS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD, WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN WITH THE STORMS.

ALSO ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, IT DOES APPEAR THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EDGING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL LIKELY BRING WITH IT A
GRADUAL 7 TO 15 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT COOL DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM ABOUT TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND THE SOUTH COAST
NEAR BROOKINGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...THEN RETURN AGAIN
THIS EVENING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER
SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE HOTTEST DAY
WILL BE TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY
FRIDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT AREA. THE CURRENT GFS RUN IS A BIT QUICK
WITH THIS FEATURE AS FAR AS TIMING GOES...BUT IT HAS BEEN VARYING
FROM RUN TO RUN. IF SUBSEQUENT RUNS PUT IT OVER THE AREA AT MAX
HEATING...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR
POOR TO MODERATE RH RECOVERIES ON THE RIDGES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND
SISKIYOUS SOUTH. LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL RECORDS HAVE BEEN TIED OR HAVE BEEN BROKEN
ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WE REACHED 108 DEGREES AT
THE ROGUE VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, GOOD
ENOUGH TO TIE THE RECORD THAT WAS LAST REACHED IN 1942. OTHER
RECORD HIGHS THAT WERE SET/TIED WEDNESDAY (PREVIOUS RECORD IN
PARENTHESES): KLAMATH FALLS: 98 (97 IN 2014), MOUNT SHASTA: 100
(99 IN 2014) AND ALTURAS: 101 (101 IN 2014).

TODAY MORE RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN...AS WE`RE
EXPECTING SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR THE
ROGUE...ILLINOIS...KLAMATH RIVER...SCOTT...AND SHASTA
VALLEYS...FOUND AT NPWMFR. WITH ALL THE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES EXPECTED
ON A TYPICAL 4TH OF JULY...FOLKS SHOULD REALLY PLAN ACCORDINGLY WITH
THE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
AN ELEVATED RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.

TODAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES...AS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE IN THAT
AREA. A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING AS THE AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AND THUS THE ISOLATED COVERAGE.

ON FRIDAY A TRIGGER ARRIVES IN THE FORM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE NAM12 AND GFS40 MODELS AGREEING ON
GENERAL PLACEMENT AND TIMING. CONTINUED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE HAVEN`T USED SCATTERED WORDING YET BECAUSE
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH SHORTWAVE PLACEMENT HASN`T BEEN ROCK
SOLID...BUT IF ANOTHER RUN OF THE MODELS SHOWS LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AND LI VALUES NEAR -4...THIS WILL SIGNAL A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
NUDGE A BIT FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY INTO KLAMATH FALLS. ON
SATURDAY ANOTHER AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES...AND 850MB
COMPUTED LI VALUES PER THE GFS REMAIN NEGATIVE...SO THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE...GENERALLY HIGHER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE TO
GENERALLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES. FINALLY...ON SUNDAY THE INSTABILITY
PUSHES NORTH AND EAST...BRINGING BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. STEERING FLOW
IS NOT REALLY FAVORABLE TO BRING STORMS INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY OR
ANY OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS FOR THAT MATTER. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REALLY IS MINIMAL FROM JACKSON
COUNTY EASTWARD.

THE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND PUMPS IN MOISTURE WITH A LONG FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN AND THE
LATEST GFS REMARKABLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST IN SOME FORM
OR FASHION THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE BY THE WEEKEND.

ONE OTHER IMPORTANT NOTE...TEMPERATURES FINALLY DECREASE TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS NO SHARP COOL DOWN EXPECTED
BUT JUST A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
  FOR PZZ376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/NSK/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 021633
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
933 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE TO ADJUST SKY COVER SLIGHTLY
OVER THE MARINE WATERS, TO ADD PATCHY SMOKE FROM THE CORNER CREEK
FIRE NEAR DAYVILLE, OREGON OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
AND TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WAVES IN THE MARINE FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MANY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE TIED OR BROKEN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RECORDS THAT WERE BROKEN ACTUALLY HAD BEEN BROKEN
JUST LAST YEAR. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO BE ALMOST IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY`S, THOUGH
SOME LOCATIONS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO HOTTER AND SOME A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER. RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE TIED OR BROKEN AGAIN AT
MANY LOCATIONS.

OUR FOCUS TODAY WILL BE TO ATTEMPT TO NAIL DOWN THE THUNDERSTORM
RISK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND FOR FRIDAY
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LOOK ON TRACK. WHILE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES COVERAGE COULD EXCEED ISOLATED COVERAGE IN WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, OTHER GUIDANCE
INDICATES MORNING CLOUD COVER THERE ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING AND THE MAXIMUM THREAT FOR STORMS WILL, INSTEAD, END UP
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST IN THE TULE LAKE BASIN AND ACROSS KLAMATH
COUNTY. THUS, WITH MIXED SIGNALS, CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW THAT
SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
WE`LL CONTINUE TO WORK ON HONING IN ON THIS BETTER TODAY. FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO
DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD, BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORM MAXIMA HAS BEEN CHANGING FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL
RUN. IT DOES STAND TO REASON THAT, AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
LOWER AND MOISTURE INCREASES, SOME AREAS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD, WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN WITH THE STORMS.

ALSO ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, IT DOES APPEAR THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EDGING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL LIKELY BRING WITH IT A
GRADUAL 7 TO 15 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT COOL DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM ABOUT TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND THE SOUTH COAST
NEAR BROOKINGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...THEN RETURN AGAIN
THIS EVENING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER
SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE HOTTEST DAY
WILL BE TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY
FRIDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT AREA. THE CURRENT GFS RUN IS A BIT QUICK
WITH THIS FEATURE AS FAR AS TIMING GOES...BUT IT HAS BEEN VARYING
FROM RUN TO RUN. IF SUBSEQUENT RUNS PUT IT OVER THE AREA AT MAX
HEATING...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR
POOR TO MODERATE RH RECOVERIES ON THE RIDGES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND
SISKIYOUS SOUTH. LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL RECORDS HAVE BEEN TIED OR HAVE BEEN BROKEN
ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WE REACHED 108 DEGREES AT
THE ROGUE VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, GOOD
ENOUGH TO TIE THE RECORD THAT WAS LAST REACHED IN 1942. OTHER
RECORD HIGHS THAT WERE SET/TIED WEDNESDAY (PREVIOUS RECORD IN
PARENTHESES): KLAMATH FALLS: 98 (97 IN 2014), MOUNT SHASTA: 100
(99 IN 2014) AND ALTURAS: 101 (101 IN 2014).

TODAY MORE RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN...AS WE`RE
EXPECTING SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR THE
ROGUE...ILLINOIS...KLAMATH RIVER...SCOTT...AND SHASTA
VALLEYS...FOUND AT NPWMFR. WITH ALL THE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES EXPECTED
ON A TYPICAL 4TH OF JULY...FOLKS SHOULD REALLY PLAN ACCORDINGLY WITH
THE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
AN ELEVATED RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.

TODAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES...AS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE IN THAT
AREA. A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING AS THE AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AND THUS THE ISOLATED COVERAGE.

ON FRIDAY A TRIGGER ARRIVES IN THE FORM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE NAM12 AND GFS40 MODELS AGREEING ON
GENERAL PLACEMENT AND TIMING. CONTINUED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE HAVEN`T USED SCATTERED WORDING YET BECAUSE
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH SHORTWAVE PLACEMENT HASN`T BEEN ROCK
SOLID...BUT IF ANOTHER RUN OF THE MODELS SHOWS LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AND LI VALUES NEAR -4...THIS WILL SIGNAL A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
NUDGE A BIT FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY INTO KLAMATH FALLS. ON
SATURDAY ANOTHER AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES...AND 850MB
COMPUTED LI VALUES PER THE GFS REMAIN NEGATIVE...SO THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE...GENERALLY HIGHER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE TO
GENERALLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES. FINALLY...ON SUNDAY THE INSTABILITY
PUSHES NORTH AND EAST...BRINGING BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. STEERING FLOW
IS NOT REALLY FAVORABLE TO BRING STORMS INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY OR
ANY OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS FOR THAT MATTER. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REALLY IS MINIMAL FROM JACKSON
COUNTY EASTWARD.

THE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND PUMPS IN MOISTURE WITH A LONG FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN AND THE
LATEST GFS REMARKABLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST IN SOME FORM
OR FASHION THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE BY THE WEEKEND.

ONE OTHER IMPORTANT NOTE...TEMPERATURES FINALLY DECREASE TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS NO SHARP COOL DOWN EXPECTED
BUT JUST A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
  FOR PZZ376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/NSK/JRS



000
FXUS66 KMFR 021633
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
933 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE TO ADJUST SKY COVER SLIGHTLY
OVER THE MARINE WATERS, TO ADD PATCHY SMOKE FROM THE CORNER CREEK
FIRE NEAR DAYVILLE, OREGON OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
AND TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WAVES IN THE MARINE FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MANY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE TIED OR BROKEN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RECORDS THAT WERE BROKEN ACTUALLY HAD BEEN BROKEN
JUST LAST YEAR. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO BE ALMOST IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY`S, THOUGH
SOME LOCATIONS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO HOTTER AND SOME A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER. RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE TIED OR BROKEN AGAIN AT
MANY LOCATIONS.

OUR FOCUS TODAY WILL BE TO ATTEMPT TO NAIL DOWN THE THUNDERSTORM
RISK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND FOR FRIDAY
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LOOK ON TRACK. WHILE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES COVERAGE COULD EXCEED ISOLATED COVERAGE IN WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, OTHER GUIDANCE
INDICATES MORNING CLOUD COVER THERE ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING AND THE MAXIMUM THREAT FOR STORMS WILL, INSTEAD, END UP
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST IN THE TULE LAKE BASIN AND ACROSS KLAMATH
COUNTY. THUS, WITH MIXED SIGNALS, CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW THAT
SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
WE`LL CONTINUE TO WORK ON HONING IN ON THIS BETTER TODAY. FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO
DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD, BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORM MAXIMA HAS BEEN CHANGING FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL
RUN. IT DOES STAND TO REASON THAT, AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
LOWER AND MOISTURE INCREASES, SOME AREAS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD, WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN WITH THE STORMS.

ALSO ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, IT DOES APPEAR THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EDGING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL LIKELY BRING WITH IT A
GRADUAL 7 TO 15 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT COOL DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM ABOUT TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND THE SOUTH COAST
NEAR BROOKINGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...THEN RETURN AGAIN
THIS EVENING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER
SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE HOTTEST DAY
WILL BE TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY
FRIDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT AREA. THE CURRENT GFS RUN IS A BIT QUICK
WITH THIS FEATURE AS FAR AS TIMING GOES...BUT IT HAS BEEN VARYING
FROM RUN TO RUN. IF SUBSEQUENT RUNS PUT IT OVER THE AREA AT MAX
HEATING...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR
POOR TO MODERATE RH RECOVERIES ON THE RIDGES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND
SISKIYOUS SOUTH. LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL RECORDS HAVE BEEN TIED OR HAVE BEEN BROKEN
ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WE REACHED 108 DEGREES AT
THE ROGUE VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, GOOD
ENOUGH TO TIE THE RECORD THAT WAS LAST REACHED IN 1942. OTHER
RECORD HIGHS THAT WERE SET/TIED WEDNESDAY (PREVIOUS RECORD IN
PARENTHESES): KLAMATH FALLS: 98 (97 IN 2014), MOUNT SHASTA: 100
(99 IN 2014) AND ALTURAS: 101 (101 IN 2014).

TODAY MORE RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN...AS WE`RE
EXPECTING SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR THE
ROGUE...ILLINOIS...KLAMATH RIVER...SCOTT...AND SHASTA
VALLEYS...FOUND AT NPWMFR. WITH ALL THE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES EXPECTED
ON A TYPICAL 4TH OF JULY...FOLKS SHOULD REALLY PLAN ACCORDINGLY WITH
THE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
AN ELEVATED RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.

TODAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES...AS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE IN THAT
AREA. A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING AS THE AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AND THUS THE ISOLATED COVERAGE.

ON FRIDAY A TRIGGER ARRIVES IN THE FORM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE NAM12 AND GFS40 MODELS AGREEING ON
GENERAL PLACEMENT AND TIMING. CONTINUED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE HAVEN`T USED SCATTERED WORDING YET BECAUSE
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH SHORTWAVE PLACEMENT HASN`T BEEN ROCK
SOLID...BUT IF ANOTHER RUN OF THE MODELS SHOWS LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AND LI VALUES NEAR -4...THIS WILL SIGNAL A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
NUDGE A BIT FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY INTO KLAMATH FALLS. ON
SATURDAY ANOTHER AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES...AND 850MB
COMPUTED LI VALUES PER THE GFS REMAIN NEGATIVE...SO THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE...GENERALLY HIGHER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE TO
GENERALLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES. FINALLY...ON SUNDAY THE INSTABILITY
PUSHES NORTH AND EAST...BRINGING BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. STEERING FLOW
IS NOT REALLY FAVORABLE TO BRING STORMS INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY OR
ANY OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS FOR THAT MATTER. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REALLY IS MINIMAL FROM JACKSON
COUNTY EASTWARD.

THE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND PUMPS IN MOISTURE WITH A LONG FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN AND THE
LATEST GFS REMARKABLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST IN SOME FORM
OR FASHION THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE BY THE WEEKEND.

ONE OTHER IMPORTANT NOTE...TEMPERATURES FINALLY DECREASE TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS NO SHARP COOL DOWN EXPECTED
BUT JUST A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
  FOR PZZ376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/NSK/JRS




000
FXUS66 KPDT 021531
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
831 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NEAR RECORD HEAT EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HEAT
ADVISORIES CONTINUING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY BUT DO EXPECT SOME INCREASED
BREEZY WEST WINDS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY NIGHT IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE ZONES
THAT COVER PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN, THE KITTITAS AND YAKIMA
VALLEYS, THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, AND
CENTRAL OREGON.  FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THE WIND CONCERNS...AS WINDS
INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
CASCADES GAPS AND PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I DON`T ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS BUT ENOUGH
WINDS TO WARRANT A WATCH...AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE
TEENS FOR MOST OF THIS AREA.  SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
FOURTH OF JULY.  WISTER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE 4TH OF JULY...HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN WARMING ALOFT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
HOTTER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 100S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE ON FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN EVEN SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. EVEN
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY IN EASTERN AREAS. THERE MAY BE SOME COOLING ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES AS COOLER MARINE AIR BEGINS TO FILTER THROUGH THE GAPS
AND PASSES OF THE CASCADE RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 MODEL
SHOWS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY (4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY).
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST. THERE ARE NUMEROUS FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AND/OR HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING OR FRIDAY EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD AS THEY ARE
FOR NOW BUT THEY WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE ANY CHANGES TO TIMING OR
AREA ARE NEEDED. A SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED GOING
INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT THEY
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST AREA WILL
BE UNDER A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A TROUGH IN WESTERN CANADA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AS A RESULT OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 30N AND 42N AND 125-140W
OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH IN WESTERN CANADA A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS, WHICH YIELDS FLOW ALOFT
OVER REGION FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SINKING
MOTION ACROSS FORECAST FOR DRY CONDITIONS. THE CANADIAN AND GFS
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA AS THE MORE DOMINANT
FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO FORECAST AREA, WHICH ALLOWS WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT TO BRING AN INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
OREGON, THUS INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
OREGON. I CHOSE TO GO WITH THE LATTER SOLUTION.  POLAN


AVIATION...12Z TAFS...CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT SCT
CUMULUS AND CIRRUS AT KRDM AND KBDN TODAY. SURFACE WINDS 5-15 KTS.
POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 102  67 103  67 /   0   0   0   0
ALW 103  73 104  73 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 106  69 106  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 100  68 100  69 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 104  68 104  69 /   0   0   0   0
ELN 104  65 103  65 /   0   0   0   0
RDM 100  61  98  57 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  97  58  97  59 /   0   0   0   0
GCD 101  62 101  59 /   0   0   0   0
DLS 106  72 101  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ041-510-511.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ610-640-641.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ044.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ507.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ024.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ028.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ026-027-
     029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89




000
FXUS66 KPDT 021531
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
831 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NEAR RECORD HEAT EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HEAT
ADVISORIES CONTINUING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY BUT DO EXPECT SOME INCREASED
BREEZY WEST WINDS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY NIGHT IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE ZONES
THAT COVER PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN, THE KITTITAS AND YAKIMA
VALLEYS, THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, AND
CENTRAL OREGON.  FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THE WIND CONCERNS...AS WINDS
INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
CASCADES GAPS AND PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I DON`T ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS BUT ENOUGH
WINDS TO WARRANT A WATCH...AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE
TEENS FOR MOST OF THIS AREA.  SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
FOURTH OF JULY.  WISTER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE 4TH OF JULY...HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN WARMING ALOFT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
HOTTER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 100S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE ON FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN EVEN SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. EVEN
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY IN EASTERN AREAS. THERE MAY BE SOME COOLING ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES AS COOLER MARINE AIR BEGINS TO FILTER THROUGH THE GAPS
AND PASSES OF THE CASCADE RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 MODEL
SHOWS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY (4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY).
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST. THERE ARE NUMEROUS FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AND/OR HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING OR FRIDAY EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD AS THEY ARE
FOR NOW BUT THEY WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE ANY CHANGES TO TIMING OR
AREA ARE NEEDED. A SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED GOING
INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT THEY
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST AREA WILL
BE UNDER A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A TROUGH IN WESTERN CANADA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AS A RESULT OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 30N AND 42N AND 125-140W
OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH IN WESTERN CANADA A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS, WHICH YIELDS FLOW ALOFT
OVER REGION FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SINKING
MOTION ACROSS FORECAST FOR DRY CONDITIONS. THE CANADIAN AND GFS
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA AS THE MORE DOMINANT
FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO FORECAST AREA, WHICH ALLOWS WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT TO BRING AN INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
OREGON, THUS INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
OREGON. I CHOSE TO GO WITH THE LATTER SOLUTION.  POLAN


AVIATION...12Z TAFS...CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT SCT
CUMULUS AND CIRRUS AT KRDM AND KBDN TODAY. SURFACE WINDS 5-15 KTS.
POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 102  67 103  67 /   0   0   0   0
ALW 103  73 104  73 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 106  69 106  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 100  68 100  69 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 104  68 104  69 /   0   0   0   0
ELN 104  65 103  65 /   0   0   0   0
RDM 100  61  98  57 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  97  58  97  59 /   0   0   0   0
GCD 101  62 101  59 /   0   0   0   0
DLS 106  72 101  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ041-510-511.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ610-640-641.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ044.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ507.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ024.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ028.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ026-027-
     029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89



000
FXUS65 KBOI 021516
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
915 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WITH HOT WX CONTINUING
AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER.  SAME
THING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY.
A FEW DEGS COOLER SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH IN THE NRN GULF OF ALASKA
COMES INLAND ACROSS WRN CANADA.  FOR BOISE...CURRENTLY SIX
CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 100 DEGREES.  TODAY WILL MAKE SEVEN.  THE RECORD
IS NINE DAYS WHICH WILL BE TIED SATURDAY IF WE GET TO 100...CURRENT
FORECAST HAS 99.  SUNDAY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW 100.  NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE OREGON-NEVADA BORDER
AFTER 20Z. N/NW SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 12 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOVEMENT
OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO NRN CA. MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE...COUPLED WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE OR/NV AND ID/NV BORDER EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP BRING THE THREAT OF GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND HOT THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME LOCATIONS
APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR MORE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO ENTER THE
AREA WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NEXT WEEK A PATTERN CHANGE IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY AS MODELS
ARE AGREEING ON AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING DOWN THE WESTERN CANADIAN
COAST. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES ARE PRESENT BETWEEN MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PRECIP
CHANCES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN TEMPERATURES LOWERING A
FEW DEGREES EACH DAY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER-MID 90S BY MIDDLE-END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....MT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 021516
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
915 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WITH HOT WX CONTINUING
AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER.  SAME
THING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY.
A FEW DEGS COOLER SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH IN THE NRN GULF OF ALASKA
COMES INLAND ACROSS WRN CANADA.  FOR BOISE...CURRENTLY SIX
CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 100 DEGREES.  TODAY WILL MAKE SEVEN.  THE RECORD
IS NINE DAYS WHICH WILL BE TIED SATURDAY IF WE GET TO 100...CURRENT
FORECAST HAS 99.  SUNDAY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW 100.  NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE OREGON-NEVADA BORDER
AFTER 20Z. N/NW SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 12 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOVEMENT
OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO NRN CA. MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE...COUPLED WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE OR/NV AND ID/NV BORDER EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP BRING THE THREAT OF GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND HOT THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME LOCATIONS
APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR MORE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO ENTER THE
AREA WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NEXT WEEK A PATTERN CHANGE IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY AS MODELS
ARE AGREEING ON AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING DOWN THE WESTERN CANADIAN
COAST. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES ARE PRESENT BETWEEN MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PRECIP
CHANCES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN TEMPERATURES LOWERING A
FEW DEGREES EACH DAY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER-MID 90S BY MIDDLE-END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....MT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....EP



000
FXUS66 KPDT 021001
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE 4TH OF JULY...HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN WARMING ALOFT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
HOTTER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 100S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE ON FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN EVEN SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. EVEN
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY IN EASTERN AREAS. THERE MAY BE SOME COOLING ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES AS COOLER MARINE AIR BEGINS TO FILTER THROUGH THE GAPS
AND PASSES OF THE CASCADE RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 MODEL
SHOWS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY (4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY).
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST. THERE ARE NUMEROUS FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AND/OR HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING OR FRIDAY EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD AS THEY ARE
FOR NOW BUT THEY WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE ANY CHANGES TO TIMING OR
AREA ARE NEEDED. A SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED GOING
INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT THEY
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST AREA WILL
BE UNDER A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A TROUGH IN WESTERN CANADA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AS A RESULT OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 30N AND 42N AND 125-140W
OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH IN WESTERN CANADA A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS, WHICH YIELDS FLOW ALOFT
OVER REGION FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SINKING
MOTION ACROSS FORECAST FOR DRY CONDITIONS. THE CANADIAN AND GFS
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA AS THE MORE DOMINANT
FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO FORECAST AREA, WHICH ALLOWS WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT TO BRING AN INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
OREGON, THUS INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
OREGON. I CHOSE TO GO WITH THE LATTER SOLUTION.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT SCT
CUMULUS AND CIRRUS AT KRDM AND KBDN TODAY. SURFACE WINDS 5-15 KTS.
POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 102  66 102  66 /   0   0   0   0
ALW 102  72 104  72 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 104  68 105  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 102  69 103  69 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 104  68 104  68 /   0   0   0   0
ELN 103  65 101  65 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  99  58  97  58 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  99  58  97  58 /   0   0   0   0
GCD 102  60 101  60 /   0   0   0   0
DLS 105  68 101  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ041-510-511.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ610-640-641.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ044.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ507.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ024.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ028.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ026-027-
     029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/99/99



000
FXUS66 KPDT 021001
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE 4TH OF JULY...HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN WARMING ALOFT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
HOTTER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 100S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE ON FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN EVEN SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. EVEN
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY IN EASTERN AREAS. THERE MAY BE SOME COOLING ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES AS COOLER MARINE AIR BEGINS TO FILTER THROUGH THE GAPS
AND PASSES OF THE CASCADE RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 MODEL
SHOWS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY (4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY).
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST. THERE ARE NUMEROUS FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AND/OR HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING OR FRIDAY EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD AS THEY ARE
FOR NOW BUT THEY WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE ANY CHANGES TO TIMING OR
AREA ARE NEEDED. A SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED GOING
INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT THEY
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST AREA WILL
BE UNDER A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A TROUGH IN WESTERN CANADA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AS A RESULT OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 30N AND 42N AND 125-140W
OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH IN WESTERN CANADA A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS, WHICH YIELDS FLOW ALOFT
OVER REGION FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SINKING
MOTION ACROSS FORECAST FOR DRY CONDITIONS. THE CANADIAN AND GFS
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA AS THE MORE DOMINANT
FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO FORECAST AREA, WHICH ALLOWS WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT TO BRING AN INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
OREGON, THUS INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
OREGON. I CHOSE TO GO WITH THE LATTER SOLUTION.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT SCT
CUMULUS AND CIRRUS AT KRDM AND KBDN TODAY. SURFACE WINDS 5-15 KTS.
POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 102  66 102  66 /   0   0   0   0
ALW 102  72 104  72 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 104  68 105  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 102  69 103  69 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 104  68 104  68 /   0   0   0   0
ELN 103  65 101  65 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  99  58  97  58 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  99  58  97  58 /   0   0   0   0
GCD 102  60 101  60 /   0   0   0   0
DLS 105  68 101  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ041-510-511.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ610-640-641.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ044.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ507.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ024.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ028.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ026-027-
     029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/99/99




000
FXUS66 KMFR 020950
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
250 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL RECORDS HAVE BEEN TIED OR HAVE BEEN BROKEN
ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WE REACHED 108 DEGREES AT
THE ROGUE VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, GOOD
ENOUGH TO TIE THE RECORD THAT WAS LAST REACHED IN 1942. OTHER
RECORD HIGHS THAT WERE SET/TIED EARLIER TODAY (PREVIOUS RECORD IN
PARENTHESES): KLAMATH FALLS: 98 (97 IN 2014), MOUNT SHASTA: 100
(99 IN 2014) AND ALTURAS: 101 (101 IN 2014).

TODAY MORE RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN...AS WE`RE
EXPECTING SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR THE
ROGUE...ILLINOIS...KLAMATH RIVER...SCOTT...AND SHASTA
VALLEYS...FOUND AT NPWMFR. WITH ALL THE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES EXPECTED
ON A TYPICAL 4TH OF JULY...FOLKS SHOULD REALLY PLAN ACCORDINGLY WITH
THE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
AN ELEVATED RISK OF HEAT ILLNESSES.

TODAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES...AS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE IN THAT
AREA. A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING AS THE AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AND THUS THE ISOLATED COVERAGE.

ON FRIDAY A TRIGGER ARRIVES IN THE FORM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE NAM12 AND GFS40 MODELS AGREEING ON
GENERAL PLACEMENT AND TIMING. CONTINUED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE HAVEN`T USED SCATTERED WORDING YET BECAUSE
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH SHORTWAVE PLACEMENT HASN`T BEEN ROCK
SOLID...BUT IF ANOTHER RUN OF THE MODELS SHOWS LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AND LI VALUES NEAR -4...THIS WILL SIGNAL A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
NUDGE A BIT FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY INTO KLAMATH FALLS. ON
SATURDAY ANOTHER AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES...AND 850MB
COMPUTED LI VALUES PER THE GFS REMAIN NEGATIVE...SO THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE...GENERALLY HIGHER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE TO
GENERALLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES. FINALLY...ON SUNDAY THE INSTABILITY
PUSHES NORTH AND EAST...BRINGING BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. STEERING FLOW
IS NOT REALLY FAVORABLE TO BRING STORMS INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY OR
ANY OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS FOR THAT MATTER. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REALLY IS MINIMAL FROM JACKSON
COUNTY EASTWARD.

THE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND PUMPS IN MOISTURE WITH A LONG FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN AND THE
LATEST GFS REMARKABLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST IN SOME FORM
OR FASHION THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE BY THE WEEKEND.

ONE OTHER IMPORTANT NOTE...TEMPERATURES FINALLY DECREASE TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS NO SHARP COOLDOWN EXPECTED
BUT JUST A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND THE SOUTH COAST
NEAR BROOKINGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...THEN RETURN AGAIN
THIS EVENING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER
SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE HOTTEST DAY
WILL BE TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND OVER SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY FRIDAY. THE
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THAT AREA. THE CURRENT GFS RUN IS A BIT QUICK WITH THIS
FEATURE AS FAR AS TIMING GOES...BUT IT HAS BEEN VARYING FROM RUN
TO RUN. IF SUBSEQUENT RUNS PUT IT OVER THE AREA AT MAX HEATING...A
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR POOR TO
MODERATE RH RECOVERIES ON THE RIDGES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND
SISKIYOUS SOUTH. LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

NSK/NSK/JRS



000
FXUS66 KMFR 020950
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
250 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL RECORDS HAVE BEEN TIED OR HAVE BEEN BROKEN
ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WE REACHED 108 DEGREES AT
THE ROGUE VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, GOOD
ENOUGH TO TIE THE RECORD THAT WAS LAST REACHED IN 1942. OTHER
RECORD HIGHS THAT WERE SET/TIED EARLIER TODAY (PREVIOUS RECORD IN
PARENTHESES): KLAMATH FALLS: 98 (97 IN 2014), MOUNT SHASTA: 100
(99 IN 2014) AND ALTURAS: 101 (101 IN 2014).

TODAY MORE RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN...AS WE`RE
EXPECTING SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR THE
ROGUE...ILLINOIS...KLAMATH RIVER...SCOTT...AND SHASTA
VALLEYS...FOUND AT NPWMFR. WITH ALL THE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES EXPECTED
ON A TYPICAL 4TH OF JULY...FOLKS SHOULD REALLY PLAN ACCORDINGLY WITH
THE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
AN ELEVATED RISK OF HEAT ILLNESSES.

TODAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES...AS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE IN THAT
AREA. A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING AS THE AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AND THUS THE ISOLATED COVERAGE.

ON FRIDAY A TRIGGER ARRIVES IN THE FORM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE NAM12 AND GFS40 MODELS AGREEING ON
GENERAL PLACEMENT AND TIMING. CONTINUED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE HAVEN`T USED SCATTERED WORDING YET BECAUSE
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH SHORTWAVE PLACEMENT HASN`T BEEN ROCK
SOLID...BUT IF ANOTHER RUN OF THE MODELS SHOWS LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AND LI VALUES NEAR -4...THIS WILL SIGNAL A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
NUDGE A BIT FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY INTO KLAMATH FALLS. ON
SATURDAY ANOTHER AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES...AND 850MB
COMPUTED LI VALUES PER THE GFS REMAIN NEGATIVE...SO THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE...GENERALLY HIGHER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE TO
GENERALLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES. FINALLY...ON SUNDAY THE INSTABILITY
PUSHES NORTH AND EAST...BRINGING BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. STEERING FLOW
IS NOT REALLY FAVORABLE TO BRING STORMS INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY OR
ANY OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS FOR THAT MATTER. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REALLY IS MINIMAL FROM JACKSON
COUNTY EASTWARD.

THE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND PUMPS IN MOISTURE WITH A LONG FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN AND THE
LATEST GFS REMARKABLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST IN SOME FORM
OR FASHION THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE BY THE WEEKEND.

ONE OTHER IMPORTANT NOTE...TEMPERATURES FINALLY DECREASE TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS NO SHARP COOLDOWN EXPECTED
BUT JUST A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND THE SOUTH COAST
NEAR BROOKINGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...THEN RETURN AGAIN
THIS EVENING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER
SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE HOTTEST DAY
WILL BE TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND OVER SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY FRIDAY. THE
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THAT AREA. THE CURRENT GFS RUN IS A BIT QUICK WITH THIS
FEATURE AS FAR AS TIMING GOES...BUT IT HAS BEEN VARYING FROM RUN
TO RUN. IF SUBSEQUENT RUNS PUT IT OVER THE AREA AT MAX HEATING...A
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR POOR TO
MODERATE RH RECOVERIES ON THE RIDGES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND
SISKIYOUS SOUTH. LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

NSK/NSK/JRS




000
FXUS66 KPQR 020946
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
245 AM PDT THU JUL  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS RECENT HOT
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY. SLIGHT COOLING LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&
.SHORT TERM...LIKE THE SONG SAYS...THE HEAT GOES ON. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS
SRN VANCOUVER ISLAND AS OF 09Z...PUTTING A SLIGHT DENT IN THE UPPER
RIDGE. NORMALLY...THE PASSAGE OF SUCH A SHORT-WAVE WOULD ENHANCE THE
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE CASE THIS TIME.
THE JUL 2 00Z KSLE SOUNDING YIELDED AN 850 MB TEMP OF 23.2C...A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE 24-HR FORECAST. LATEST GFS INDICATES 22C FOR
00Z FRI. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS COMPARED TO WED. THIN
RIBBON OF MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE S OREGON COAST SLOWLY WORKING ITS
WAY NORTH...UP TO NEAR CASCADE HEAD AT 09Z. HI-RES ARW MODEL SEEMS TO
BE HANDLING THIS REASONABLY WELL. MODEL SHOWS STRATUS REACHING KAST
AND THE S WA COAST AROUND 12Z...BUT LITTLE INLAND PENETRATION.

MODELS SUGGEST A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE FLOW THU NIGHT AND FRI FOR
SLIGHT COOLING. GFS SHOWS 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 21C FOR KSLE AND
KPDX...DOWN ABOUT A DEGREE FROM THU. SW WA MAY GET THE BEST
RELIEF...ALBEIT MINOR...FRI WITH LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS. SAT APPEARS TO
BE SIMILAR TO FRI. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE THE CALL. ALL IN ALL...
LOOKING AT A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER 3 90 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS
FOR MANY AREAS. THAT WOULD BE 13 90 DEGREE DAYS FOR KPDX...WELL ABOVE
THE SEASONAL NORM. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...THE STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE AS THE HIGH
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NE PACIFIC OFF THE BC COAST. HOWEVER...THE MEX
GUIDANCE SHOWS SUN BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG-DURATION HOT
SPELL. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A 500 MB
COL AREA SUN AND WITHIN A BROAD THERMALLY-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH.
ECMWF SHOWS SOME MOISTURE TRYING TO WORK NWD FROM NRN CAL BUT DO NOT
THINK IT WILL REACH THE SRN PART OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES. HOWEVER...
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. AFTER ANOTHER
HOT DAY OR TWO SUN AND MON...THE DEVELOPING TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL
LOWER HEIGHTS AND ENCOURAGE A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. THIS IS LIKELY
TO RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS TUE AND WED AND MORE MARINE CLOUDS PUSHING
INLAND. THE REGION WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SUSCEPTIBLE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AT TIMES SPREADING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALOFT UP FROM
THE S. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PERSIST INLAND NEXT 24 HRS WITH DRY/STABLE
WESTERLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT. COAST IS A DIFFERENT STORY WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR LINCOLN CITY SOUTHWARD...LIKELY TO LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. PATCHY IFR IS ALSO DEVELOPING FURTHER
NORTH WITH KAST REPORTING BKN008 IN THE PAST HOUR. SUSPECT THIS
WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD BY 12Z BUT NOT QUITE AS SOLID
AS THE STRATUS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH DRY ONSHORE FLOW NEXT 24 HRS. LIGHT
W-NW WINDS PICK UP TO 10-15 KT BETWEEN 21Z-04Z.  WEAGLE

&&

.MARINE...CLASSIC SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE INLAND...RESULTING IN
GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING N-NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST. DECIDED TO
SHOW MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND IN THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST...WITH
WINDS SLACKENING SOME DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WHILE
THEY REMAIN MORE STEADY OFFSHORE. EXPECT STEEP SHORT-PERIOD SEAS
FROM THE GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS...AND MORE PERSISTENT STEEP
SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS. SQUARE SEAS OF 8 FT/8 SEC ALREADY BEING
REPORTED AT BUOY 46089...SO WE ISSUED AN SCA FOR SEAS OUTER WATERS
THROUGH FRI. STRONG NW WINDS OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME SHORT PERIOD SWELL WHICH WILL AFFECT
THE S WA/N OR WATERS AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOCALLY
GENERATED WIND WAVE AND THE FRESH SWELL COULD PUSH SEAS UP TOWARDS
10-11 FT BY SAT MORNING...SO THE SCA FOR SEAS MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED/EXPANDED EVENTUALLY.

THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OFFSHORE LATER THIS
WEEKEND...SHOVING THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT OFFSHORE AND
ALLOWING WINDS TO EASE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS SHOULD COME
DOWN AS WELL...SUBSIDING TO BACKGROUND SWELL AND LIGHT WIND WAVE
EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR NW OREGON INTERIOR
     LOWLANDS...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR LOWER COLUMBIA AND
     SW WASHINGTON INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM
     PDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE FROM
     10 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE FROM 10 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO
     FLORENCE OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 020946
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
245 AM PDT THU JUL  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS RECENT HOT
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY. SLIGHT COOLING LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&
.SHORT TERM...LIKE THE SONG SAYS...THE HEAT GOES ON. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS
SRN VANCOUVER ISLAND AS OF 09Z...PUTTING A SLIGHT DENT IN THE UPPER
RIDGE. NORMALLY...THE PASSAGE OF SUCH A SHORT-WAVE WOULD ENHANCE THE
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE CASE THIS TIME.
THE JUL 2 00Z KSLE SOUNDING YIELDED AN 850 MB TEMP OF 23.2C...A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE 24-HR FORECAST. LATEST GFS INDICATES 22C FOR
00Z FRI. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS COMPARED TO WED. THIN
RIBBON OF MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE S OREGON COAST SLOWLY WORKING ITS
WAY NORTH...UP TO NEAR CASCADE HEAD AT 09Z. HI-RES ARW MODEL SEEMS TO
BE HANDLING THIS REASONABLY WELL. MODEL SHOWS STRATUS REACHING KAST
AND THE S WA COAST AROUND 12Z...BUT LITTLE INLAND PENETRATION.

MODELS SUGGEST A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE FLOW THU NIGHT AND FRI FOR
SLIGHT COOLING. GFS SHOWS 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 21C FOR KSLE AND
KPDX...DOWN ABOUT A DEGREE FROM THU. SW WA MAY GET THE BEST
RELIEF...ALBEIT MINOR...FRI WITH LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS. SAT APPEARS TO
BE SIMILAR TO FRI. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE THE CALL. ALL IN ALL...
LOOKING AT A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER 3 90 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS
FOR MANY AREAS. THAT WOULD BE 13 90 DEGREE DAYS FOR KPDX...WELL ABOVE
THE SEASONAL NORM. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...THE STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE AS THE HIGH
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NE PACIFIC OFF THE BC COAST. HOWEVER...THE MEX
GUIDANCE SHOWS SUN BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG-DURATION HOT
SPELL. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A 500 MB
COL AREA SUN AND WITHIN A BROAD THERMALLY-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH.
ECMWF SHOWS SOME MOISTURE TRYING TO WORK NWD FROM NRN CAL BUT DO NOT
THINK IT WILL REACH THE SRN PART OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES. HOWEVER...
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. AFTER ANOTHER
HOT DAY OR TWO SUN AND MON...THE DEVELOPING TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL
LOWER HEIGHTS AND ENCOURAGE A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. THIS IS LIKELY
TO RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS TUE AND WED AND MORE MARINE CLOUDS PUSHING
INLAND. THE REGION WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SUSCEPTIBLE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AT TIMES SPREADING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALOFT UP FROM
THE S. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PERSIST INLAND NEXT 24 HRS WITH DRY/STABLE
WESTERLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT. COAST IS A DIFFERENT STORY WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR LINCOLN CITY SOUTHWARD...LIKELY TO LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. PATCHY IFR IS ALSO DEVELOPING FURTHER
NORTH WITH KAST REPORTING BKN008 IN THE PAST HOUR. SUSPECT THIS
WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD BY 12Z BUT NOT QUITE AS SOLID
AS THE STRATUS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH DRY ONSHORE FLOW NEXT 24 HRS. LIGHT
W-NW WINDS PICK UP TO 10-15 KT BETWEEN 21Z-04Z.  WEAGLE

&&

.MARINE...CLASSIC SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE INLAND...RESULTING IN
GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING N-NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST. DECIDED TO
SHOW MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND IN THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST...WITH
WINDS SLACKENING SOME DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WHILE
THEY REMAIN MORE STEADY OFFSHORE. EXPECT STEEP SHORT-PERIOD SEAS
FROM THE GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS...AND MORE PERSISTENT STEEP
SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS. SQUARE SEAS OF 8 FT/8 SEC ALREADY BEING
REPORTED AT BUOY 46089...SO WE ISSUED AN SCA FOR SEAS OUTER WATERS
THROUGH FRI. STRONG NW WINDS OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME SHORT PERIOD SWELL WHICH WILL AFFECT
THE S WA/N OR WATERS AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOCALLY
GENERATED WIND WAVE AND THE FRESH SWELL COULD PUSH SEAS UP TOWARDS
10-11 FT BY SAT MORNING...SO THE SCA FOR SEAS MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED/EXPANDED EVENTUALLY.

THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OFFSHORE LATER THIS
WEEKEND...SHOVING THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT OFFSHORE AND
ALLOWING WINDS TO EASE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS SHOULD COME
DOWN AS WELL...SUBSIDING TO BACKGROUND SWELL AND LIGHT WIND WAVE
EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR NW OREGON INTERIOR
     LOWLANDS...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR LOWER COLUMBIA AND
     SW WASHINGTON INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM
     PDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE FROM
     10 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE FROM 10 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO
     FLORENCE OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 020929
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
329 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOVEMENT
OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO NRN CA. MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE...COUPLED WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE OR/NV AND ID/NV BORDER EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP BRING THE THREAT OF GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND HOT THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME LOCATIONS
APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR MORE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO ENTER THE
AREA WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NEXT WEEK A PATTERN CHANGE IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY AS MODELS
ARE AGREEING ON AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE WESTERN CANADIAN
COAST. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES ARE PRESENT BETWEEN MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PRECIP
CHANCES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN TEMPERATURES LOWERING A
FEW DEGREES EACH DAY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW-MID 90S BY MIDDLE-END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 020929
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
329 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOVEMENT
OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO NRN CA. MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE...COUPLED WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE OR/NV AND ID/NV BORDER EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP BRING THE THREAT OF GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND HOT THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME LOCATIONS
APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR MORE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO ENTER THE
AREA WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NEXT WEEK A PATTERN CHANGE IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY AS MODELS
ARE AGREEING ON AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE WESTERN CANADIAN
COAST. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES ARE PRESENT BETWEEN MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PRECIP
CHANCES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN TEMPERATURES LOWERING A
FEW DEGREES EACH DAY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW-MID 90S BY MIDDLE-END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS66 KPDT 020526
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA PRODUCED
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THESE WILL DISSIPATE AT SUNSET WITH CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE A BIT
AND EXPECT HIGHS 2-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. THAT WILL PUT MOST
OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND VALLEYS AT 100-105. LOCALLY BREEZY WEST
WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.  94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT SCT
CUMULUS AND CIRRUS AT RDM BDN THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS 5-15KT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PRODUCE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO WESTERN CANADA LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. IT WILL ALSO CREATE
SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CASCADES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS A
FOUR CORNERS HIGH CONTINUES TO HOLD WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST ATTEMPTS TO SPIN UP MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO THE AREA.  ALL OTHER AREAS CAN EXPECT CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  IF THE LOW PROGRESSES FURTHER
INLAND AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH...EXPECT AN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON AND ADJACENT AREAS.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS. WEBER

FIRE WEATHER...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING ON INFRARED.  THERE MAY BE A ROGUE
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF DESCHUTES COUNTY IN FIRE ZONE 611 THIS EVENING
SO WILL KEEP IN THE FORECAST.  THERE MAY BE A FEW TOWERING CUMULUS
IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
WILL BE THE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS...AND ANY WIND THAT INCREASES MAY
RESULT IN RAPID FIRE SPREAD FOR NEW AND EXISTING FIRES.  THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH THAT BEGINS THURSDAY IN THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIGHT IN ALL ZONES THURSDAY.  THE WINDS ON FRIDAY AND EVEN ON
SATURDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY GUSTY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.  WILL KEEP THE
WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE OREGON
COLUMBIA BASIN AND CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND WILL ALSO
INCLUDE THE HANFORD DISTRICT. THE FOURTH OF JULY ALWAYS POSES A
CONCERN FOR HUMAN CAUSED FIRES IN THIS AREA DUE TO FIREWORKS...AND
EVEN 10-20 MPH WINDS POSE PROBLEMS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65 103  67 102 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  73 103  73 104 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  70 104  69 105 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  68 102  70 103 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  69 104  69 104 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  65 103  66 101 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  60  99  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  57  99  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  60 102  61 101 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  70 105  69 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ041-510-511.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ610-640-641.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ044.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ507.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR WAZ024.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ028.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ026-
     027-029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94




000
FXUS66 KPDT 020526
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA PRODUCED
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THESE WILL DISSIPATE AT SUNSET WITH CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE A BIT
AND EXPECT HIGHS 2-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. THAT WILL PUT MOST
OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND VALLEYS AT 100-105. LOCALLY BREEZY WEST
WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.  94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT SCT
CUMULUS AND CIRRUS AT RDM BDN THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS 5-15KT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PRODUCE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO WESTERN CANADA LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. IT WILL ALSO CREATE
SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CASCADES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS A
FOUR CORNERS HIGH CONTINUES TO HOLD WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST ATTEMPTS TO SPIN UP MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO THE AREA.  ALL OTHER AREAS CAN EXPECT CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  IF THE LOW PROGRESSES FURTHER
INLAND AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH...EXPECT AN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON AND ADJACENT AREAS.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS. WEBER

FIRE WEATHER...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING ON INFRARED.  THERE MAY BE A ROGUE
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF DESCHUTES COUNTY IN FIRE ZONE 611 THIS EVENING
SO WILL KEEP IN THE FORECAST.  THERE MAY BE A FEW TOWERING CUMULUS
IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
WILL BE THE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS...AND ANY WIND THAT INCREASES MAY
RESULT IN RAPID FIRE SPREAD FOR NEW AND EXISTING FIRES.  THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH THAT BEGINS THURSDAY IN THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIGHT IN ALL ZONES THURSDAY.  THE WINDS ON FRIDAY AND EVEN ON
SATURDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY GUSTY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.  WILL KEEP THE
WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE OREGON
COLUMBIA BASIN AND CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND WILL ALSO
INCLUDE THE HANFORD DISTRICT. THE FOURTH OF JULY ALWAYS POSES A
CONCERN FOR HUMAN CAUSED FIRES IN THIS AREA DUE TO FIREWORKS...AND
EVEN 10-20 MPH WINDS POSE PROBLEMS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65 103  67 102 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  73 103  73 104 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  70 104  69 105 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  68 102  70 103 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  69 104  69 104 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  65 103  66 101 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  60  99  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  57  99  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  60 102  61 101 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  70 105  69 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ041-510-511.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ610-640-641.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ044.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ507.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR WAZ024.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ028.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ026-
     027-029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94



000
FXUS66 KPDT 020526
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA PRODUCED
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THESE WILL DISSIPATE AT SUNSET WITH CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE A BIT
AND EXPECT HIGHS 2-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. THAT WILL PUT MOST
OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND VALLEYS AT 100-105. LOCALLY BREEZY WEST
WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.  94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT SCT
CUMULUS AND CIRRUS AT RDM BDN THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS 5-15KT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PRODUCE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO WESTERN CANADA LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. IT WILL ALSO CREATE
SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CASCADES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS A
FOUR CORNERS HIGH CONTINUES TO HOLD WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST ATTEMPTS TO SPIN UP MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO THE AREA.  ALL OTHER AREAS CAN EXPECT CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  IF THE LOW PROGRESSES FURTHER
INLAND AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH...EXPECT AN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON AND ADJACENT AREAS.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS. WEBER

FIRE WEATHER...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING ON INFRARED.  THERE MAY BE A ROGUE
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF DESCHUTES COUNTY IN FIRE ZONE 611 THIS EVENING
SO WILL KEEP IN THE FORECAST.  THERE MAY BE A FEW TOWERING CUMULUS
IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
WILL BE THE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS...AND ANY WIND THAT INCREASES MAY
RESULT IN RAPID FIRE SPREAD FOR NEW AND EXISTING FIRES.  THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH THAT BEGINS THURSDAY IN THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIGHT IN ALL ZONES THURSDAY.  THE WINDS ON FRIDAY AND EVEN ON
SATURDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY GUSTY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.  WILL KEEP THE
WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE OREGON
COLUMBIA BASIN AND CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND WILL ALSO
INCLUDE THE HANFORD DISTRICT. THE FOURTH OF JULY ALWAYS POSES A
CONCERN FOR HUMAN CAUSED FIRES IN THIS AREA DUE TO FIREWORKS...AND
EVEN 10-20 MPH WINDS POSE PROBLEMS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65 103  67 102 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  73 103  73 104 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  70 104  69 105 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  68 102  70 103 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  69 104  69 104 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  65 103  66 101 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  60  99  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  57  99  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  60 102  61 101 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  70 105  69 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ041-510-511.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ610-640-641.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ044.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ507.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR WAZ024.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ028.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ026-
     027-029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94




000
FXUS66 KPQR 020333
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
833 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
THE HEAT WAVE GOING WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR SOME COOLING COMES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS INLAND.

&&

.UPDATE...WITH LAX WEST-EAST GRADIENTS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MARINE
PUSH TONIGHT. MOST OF THE COAST IS CURRENTLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS
LIKE STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS FAR NORTH AS
LINCOLN COUNTY. EXPECT THAT STRATUS TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND
EVENTUALLY INLAND TO AROUND KELSO BY MORNING. BUT DO NOT EXPECT
MORNING STRATUS IN THE PDX METRO OR CLARK COUNTY. NO UPDATES NEEDED
TO THE FORECAST. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES THAT
EXTENDED FROM THE SW STATES TO OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL REMAIN INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE
THROUGH SAT...LIKELY RESULTING IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES.
WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND SATELLITE SHOWING MOST OF THE MARINE
CLOUDS GONE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ONLY A LIMITED AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AND FOG TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING.

MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...BRUSHING ACROSS WA THU AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SAT. THE AFFECTS
OF THE SHORTWAVES THOUGH APPEAR MINIMAL...PERHAPS A LITTLE STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW FOR FRI AND SAT AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS..BUT WITH H8
TEMPS STILL IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 23 DEG C EACH DAY. A STRENGTHENED
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE INLAND SPREAD OF MORNING
CLOUDS BY FRI AND SAT. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO TOP OUT IN
THE 90S IN INLAND VALLEYS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY
THROUGH FRI...BUT UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS MORE THAN EXPECTED
LATE THIS WEEK WOULD EXPECT A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF THE ADVISORY
NEEDING TO BE EXTENDED LATER ON.

.LONG TERM...THE STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE AS THE HIGH
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NE PACIFIC OFF THE BC COAST. A LOW OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER OFF THE CA COAST ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THE RIDGE LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A COL. AFTER ANOTHER HOT
DAY OR TWO SUN INTO MON...THE DEVELOPING TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL
LOWER HEIGHTS AND ENCOURAGE A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. THIS IS LIKELY
TO RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS TUE AND WED AND MORE MARINE CLOUDS PUSHING
INLAND. THE REGION WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SUSCEPTIBLE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AT TIMES SPREADING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALOFT UP FROM
THE S.
&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL WIDESPREAD VFR PERSISTS NEXT 24 HRS UNDER DRY
SW FLOW ALOFT WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS
OF LIFR STRATUS ALONG CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
AT LEAST 19Z-21Z THU. LIKELY BE MORE CLEAR TO N...WITH SOME
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG ONLY TO N OF KTMK.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...DRY SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH CLEAR SKIES. NW
WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER 06Z. ROCKEY/27

&&

.MARINE...PRETTY PERSISTENT PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRES TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE PAC THRU SAT THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. THERMALLY-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE N
CAL AND S OREGON COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
WATERS. STRONGEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT DURING FROM THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WIND WILL EASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
GRADIENTS DIMINISH. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A SWITCH
TO A FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND LATE SUN.

NW SWELL 5 TO 7 FT WILL CONTINUE...BUT WILL HAVE SOME WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN SEAS AS WELL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH STEEP AND CHOPPY
CONDITIONS. A BUILDING NW SWELL LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE FRI AND
SAT...POSSIBLY REACHING 10 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA- LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 AM
     TO 8 AM PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 020333
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
833 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
THE HEAT WAVE GOING WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR SOME COOLING COMES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS INLAND.

&&

.UPDATE...WITH LAX WEST-EAST GRADIENTS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MARINE
PUSH TONIGHT. MOST OF THE COAST IS CURRENTLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS
LIKE STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS FAR NORTH AS
LINCOLN COUNTY. EXPECT THAT STRATUS TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND
EVENTUALLY INLAND TO AROUND KELSO BY MORNING. BUT DO NOT EXPECT
MORNING STRATUS IN THE PDX METRO OR CLARK COUNTY. NO UPDATES NEEDED
TO THE FORECAST. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES THAT
EXTENDED FROM THE SW STATES TO OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL REMAIN INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE
THROUGH SAT...LIKELY RESULTING IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES.
WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND SATELLITE SHOWING MOST OF THE MARINE
CLOUDS GONE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ONLY A LIMITED AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AND FOG TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING.

MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...BRUSHING ACROSS WA THU AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SAT. THE AFFECTS
OF THE SHORTWAVES THOUGH APPEAR MINIMAL...PERHAPS A LITTLE STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW FOR FRI AND SAT AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS..BUT WITH H8
TEMPS STILL IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 23 DEG C EACH DAY. A STRENGTHENED
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE INLAND SPREAD OF MORNING
CLOUDS BY FRI AND SAT. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO TOP OUT IN
THE 90S IN INLAND VALLEYS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY
THROUGH FRI...BUT UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS MORE THAN EXPECTED
LATE THIS WEEK WOULD EXPECT A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF THE ADVISORY
NEEDING TO BE EXTENDED LATER ON.

.LONG TERM...THE STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE AS THE HIGH
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NE PACIFIC OFF THE BC COAST. A LOW OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER OFF THE CA COAST ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THE RIDGE LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A COL. AFTER ANOTHER HOT
DAY OR TWO SUN INTO MON...THE DEVELOPING TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL
LOWER HEIGHTS AND ENCOURAGE A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. THIS IS LIKELY
TO RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS TUE AND WED AND MORE MARINE CLOUDS PUSHING
INLAND. THE REGION WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SUSCEPTIBLE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AT TIMES SPREADING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALOFT UP FROM
THE S.
&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL WIDESPREAD VFR PERSISTS NEXT 24 HRS UNDER DRY
SW FLOW ALOFT WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS
OF LIFR STRATUS ALONG CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
AT LEAST 19Z-21Z THU. LIKELY BE MORE CLEAR TO N...WITH SOME
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG ONLY TO N OF KTMK.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...DRY SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH CLEAR SKIES. NW
WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER 06Z. ROCKEY/27

&&

.MARINE...PRETTY PERSISTENT PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRES TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE PAC THRU SAT THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. THERMALLY-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE N
CAL AND S OREGON COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
WATERS. STRONGEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT DURING FROM THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WIND WILL EASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
GRADIENTS DIMINISH. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A SWITCH
TO A FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND LATE SUN.

NW SWELL 5 TO 7 FT WILL CONTINUE...BUT WILL HAVE SOME WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN SEAS AS WELL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH STEEP AND CHOPPY
CONDITIONS. A BUILDING NW SWELL LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE FRI AND
SAT...POSSIBLY REACHING 10 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA- LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 AM
     TO 8 AM PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 020317
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
817 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...WE REACHED 108 DEGREES AT THE ROGUE VALLEY
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON, GOOD ENOUGH TO TIE THE
RECORD THAT WAS LAST REACHED IN 1942. OTHER RECORD HIGHS THAT WERE
SET/TIED EARLIER TODAY (PREVIOUS RECORD IN PARENTHESES): KLAMATH
FALLS: 98 (97 IN 2014), MOUNT SHASTA: 100 (99 IN 2014) AND
ALTURAS: 101 (101 IN 2014).

I HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE
REST OF THIS EVENING. THERE WERE A FEW BUILD-UPS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO (NEAR MONTAGUE AND CHEMULT),
BUT MOST HAVE SINCE COLLAPSED. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
SHALLOW OVERNIGHT, SO WE`RE NOT EXPECTING MUCH MOVEMENT INLAND. IT
SHOULD HANG OUT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THEN PEEL BACK
OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE A
BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIFICS FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW. MODEL 850 TEMPS FOR THURSDAY ARE VERY SIMILAR OR EVEN A
TOUCH HIGHER THAN THEY WERE TODAY, SO WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RECORDS TO FALL. THE
RECORD HIGH IN MEDFORD FOR JULY 2ND IS 108 SET WAY BACK IN 1922.
SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO AND THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT,
AND PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES NEAR AND
NORTH OF CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK AND IN SISKIYOU COUNTY NEAR THE
TRINITY ALPS AND SOUTHERN SCOTT AND SHASTA VALLEYS. -BPN/BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 815 PM PDT, WEDNESDAY, 1 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DUE TO THE LONG
DURATION OF NORTH WINDS, STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL, BUT OVERALL, SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY. -BPN/SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 2 TO 6 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT HOTTER THAN
THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. DUE TO HIGHER RECORDS TODAY AND TOMORROW,
SOME AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST THEY
HAVE BEEN ALL YEAR, THUS FAR, BUT WILL NOT BREAK RECORDS. RECORDS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TODAY AND TOMORROW EAST OF THE CASCADES,
WHERE THE RECORDS ARE LOWER. THE HEAT WILL NOT ABATE MUCH,
HOWEVER, AS WE GO INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AND WE DO EXPECT MORE
RECORDS TO BE BROKEN THEN, IN PART, BECAUSE THE CALENDAR DAY
RECORDS ARE LOWER THEN. THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ILLINOIS, ROGUE,
AND VALLEYS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE 4TH
OF JULY DUE TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT IMPACTING LEVELS.

POSSIBILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE REMAIN A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, CENTERED
ON LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY STORMS COULD BE BRIEFLY SCATTERED IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY. THE NAM12 INDICATES THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
TRIGGERING THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FURTHER NORTH AND MORE ROBUST
THAN DOES THE GFS40. THE SECOND OF THESE IMPULSE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY APPEARS MORE ROBUST AND IS PRESENT IN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS. THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN OVER THE OREGON
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE
COULD PUSH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MOSTLY AWAY FROM THAT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

OF NOTE, FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF ACROSS THE AREA. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH, SO IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT MIGHT BE
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE, BUT STILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BTL

AVIATION...FOR THE 01/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR CIGS
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS WILL
CLEAR TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT POSSIBLY ALONG SOME OF THE
BEACHES. THE LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO
APPROXIMATELY THE SAME AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES NEAR AND NORTH
OF CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK AND IN SISKIYOU COUNTY NEAR THE TRINITY
ALPS AND SOUTHERN SCOTT AND SHASTA VALLEYS. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT, WEDNESDAY, 1 JULY 2015... A STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN LATE TODAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS, SO
HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DUE TO THE
LONG PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS, STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL, BUT OVERALL, SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY. -BPN

CLIMATE...THE PAST RECORD FOR WARMEST JUNE IN MEDFORD WAS
DESTROYED BY 4.2 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. CONSIDERING THAT ONLY ONE
DEGREE SEPARATES THE TENTH WARMEST JUNE AND THE SECOND WARMEST
JUNE SINCE 1911...4.2 DEGREES IS AMAZING. 21 DAYS REACHED 90
DEGREES OR GREATER IN JUNE 2015...WITH 5 100-DEGREE DAYS AND 6
DAILY RECORDS BROKEN...INCLUDING THE ALL-TIME HIGHEST OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 76 DEGREES. AT LEAST 8 OTHER LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RECORDED THE HOTTEST JUNE
ON RECORD. NSK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

MAS/BTL/BPN/NSK



000
FXUS66 KMFR 020317
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
817 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...WE REACHED 108 DEGREES AT THE ROGUE VALLEY
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON, GOOD ENOUGH TO TIE THE
RECORD THAT WAS LAST REACHED IN 1942. OTHER RECORD HIGHS THAT WERE
SET/TIED EARLIER TODAY (PREVIOUS RECORD IN PARENTHESES): KLAMATH
FALLS: 98 (97 IN 2014), MOUNT SHASTA: 100 (99 IN 2014) AND
ALTURAS: 101 (101 IN 2014).

I HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE
REST OF THIS EVENING. THERE WERE A FEW BUILD-UPS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO (NEAR MONTAGUE AND CHEMULT),
BUT MOST HAVE SINCE COLLAPSED. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
SHALLOW OVERNIGHT, SO WE`RE NOT EXPECTING MUCH MOVEMENT INLAND. IT
SHOULD HANG OUT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THEN PEEL BACK
OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE A
BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIFICS FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW. MODEL 850 TEMPS FOR THURSDAY ARE VERY SIMILAR OR EVEN A
TOUCH HIGHER THAN THEY WERE TODAY, SO WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RECORDS TO FALL. THE
RECORD HIGH IN MEDFORD FOR JULY 2ND IS 108 SET WAY BACK IN 1922.
SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO AND THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT,
AND PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES NEAR AND
NORTH OF CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK AND IN SISKIYOU COUNTY NEAR THE
TRINITY ALPS AND SOUTHERN SCOTT AND SHASTA VALLEYS. -BPN/BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 815 PM PDT, WEDNESDAY, 1 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DUE TO THE LONG
DURATION OF NORTH WINDS, STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL, BUT OVERALL, SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY. -BPN/SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 2 TO 6 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT HOTTER THAN
THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. DUE TO HIGHER RECORDS TODAY AND TOMORROW,
SOME AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST THEY
HAVE BEEN ALL YEAR, THUS FAR, BUT WILL NOT BREAK RECORDS. RECORDS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TODAY AND TOMORROW EAST OF THE CASCADES,
WHERE THE RECORDS ARE LOWER. THE HEAT WILL NOT ABATE MUCH,
HOWEVER, AS WE GO INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AND WE DO EXPECT MORE
RECORDS TO BE BROKEN THEN, IN PART, BECAUSE THE CALENDAR DAY
RECORDS ARE LOWER THEN. THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ILLINOIS, ROGUE,
AND VALLEYS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE 4TH
OF JULY DUE TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT IMPACTING LEVELS.

POSSIBILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE REMAIN A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, CENTERED
ON LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY STORMS COULD BE BRIEFLY SCATTERED IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY. THE NAM12 INDICATES THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
TRIGGERING THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FURTHER NORTH AND MORE ROBUST
THAN DOES THE GFS40. THE SECOND OF THESE IMPULSE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY APPEARS MORE ROBUST AND IS PRESENT IN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS. THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN OVER THE OREGON
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE
COULD PUSH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MOSTLY AWAY FROM THAT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

OF NOTE, FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF ACROSS THE AREA. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH, SO IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT MIGHT BE
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE, BUT STILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BTL

AVIATION...FOR THE 01/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR CIGS
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS WILL
CLEAR TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT POSSIBLY ALONG SOME OF THE
BEACHES. THE LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO
APPROXIMATELY THE SAME AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES NEAR AND NORTH
OF CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK AND IN SISKIYOU COUNTY NEAR THE TRINITY
ALPS AND SOUTHERN SCOTT AND SHASTA VALLEYS. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT, WEDNESDAY, 1 JULY 2015... A STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN LATE TODAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS, SO
HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DUE TO THE
LONG PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS, STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL, BUT OVERALL, SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY. -BPN

CLIMATE...THE PAST RECORD FOR WARMEST JUNE IN MEDFORD WAS
DESTROYED BY 4.2 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. CONSIDERING THAT ONLY ONE
DEGREE SEPARATES THE TENTH WARMEST JUNE AND THE SECOND WARMEST
JUNE SINCE 1911...4.2 DEGREES IS AMAZING. 21 DAYS REACHED 90
DEGREES OR GREATER IN JUNE 2015...WITH 5 100-DEGREE DAYS AND 6
DAILY RECORDS BROKEN...INCLUDING THE ALL-TIME HIGHEST OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 76 DEGREES. AT LEAST 8 OTHER LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RECORDED THE HOTTEST JUNE
ON RECORD. NSK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

MAS/BTL/BPN/NSK




000
FXUS65 KBOI 020252
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
852 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
OWYHEE COUNTY PROMPTED A FORECAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING.
SINCE THEN...THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
NOTED ON RADAR NEAR THE OREGON/NEVADA BORDER. THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO END BY LATE THIS EVENING. ON THURSDAY...THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL RESIDE NEAR NEVADA BORDER. IT WILL
BE ANOTHER HOT DAY AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO END
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE
WINDS...12 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST TO NORTHWEST 10-20 KTS
UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEW
MEXICO TO SRN OREGON.  MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
CALIF SIERRA NEVADA WILL HELP FORM THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
NV/OR BORDER LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
NEVADA WILL GET AS FAR NORTH AS THE NV/ID BORDER.  ABOUT THE SAME
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS.  NO STORMS EXPECTED IN THE
REST OF OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY.  A DEGREE OR TWO HOTTER THURSDAY
THEN LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
IS BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE NEAR 140W.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY THEN BACK TO WESTERLY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS DROP
SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN WEST COAST AND THEN MOVE EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.  FIRST TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT.  EVEN THOUGH MODELS AGREE ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN THEY DISAGREE ON LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE.  AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SHIFT
TO HIGHER TERRAIN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE GFS
BEING THE WETTEST AND THE ECMWF THE DRIEST.  SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE
AND ANY MOISTURE THAT MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 020252
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
852 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
OWYHEE COUNTY PROMPTED A FORECAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING.
SINCE THEN...THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
NOTED ON RADAR NEAR THE OREGON/NEVADA BORDER. THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO END BY LATE THIS EVENING. ON THURSDAY...THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL RESIDE NEAR NEVADA BORDER. IT WILL
BE ANOTHER HOT DAY AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO END
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE
WINDS...12 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST TO NORTHWEST 10-20 KTS
UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEW
MEXICO TO SRN OREGON.  MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
CALIF SIERRA NEVADA WILL HELP FORM THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
NV/OR BORDER LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
NEVADA WILL GET AS FAR NORTH AS THE NV/ID BORDER.  ABOUT THE SAME
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS.  NO STORMS EXPECTED IN THE
REST OF OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY.  A DEGREE OR TWO HOTTER THURSDAY
THEN LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
IS BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE NEAR 140W.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY THEN BACK TO WESTERLY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS DROP
SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN WEST COAST AND THEN MOVE EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.  FIRST TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT.  EVEN THOUGH MODELS AGREE ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN THEY DISAGREE ON LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE.  AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SHIFT
TO HIGHER TERRAIN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE GFS
BEING THE WETTEST AND THE ECMWF THE DRIEST.  SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE
AND ANY MOISTURE THAT MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS66 KPDT 020233
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
733 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA PRODUCED
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THESE WILL DISSIPATE AT SUNSET WITH CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE A BIT
AND EXPECT HIGHS 2-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. THAT WILL PUT MOST
OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND VALLEYS AT 100-105. LOCALLY BREEZY WEST
WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.  94

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PRODUCE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO WESTERN CANADA LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. IT WILL ALSO CREATE
SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CASCADES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS A
FOUR CORNERS HIGH CONTINUES TO HOLD WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST ATTEMPTS TO SPIN UP MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO THE AREA.  ALL OTHER AREAS CAN EXPECT CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  IF THE LOW PROGRESSES FURTHER
INLAND AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH...EXPECT AN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON AND ADJACENT AREAS.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS. WEBER

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS.  WEBER

FIRE WEATHER...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING ON INFRARED.  THERE MAY BE A ROGUE
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF DESCHUTES COUNTY IN FIRE ZONE 611 THIS EVENING
SO WILL KEEP IN THE FORECAST.  THERE MAY BE A FEW TOWERING CUMULUS
IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
WILL BE THE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS...AND ANY WIND THAT INCREASES MAY
RESULT IN RAPID FIRE SPREAD FOR NEW AND EXISTING FIRES.  THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH THAT BEGINS THURSDAY IN THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIGHT IN ALL ZONES THURSDAY.  THE WINDS ON FRIDAY AND EVEN ON
SATURDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY GUSTY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.  WILL KEEP THE
WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE OREGON
COLUMBIA BASIN AND CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND WILL ALSO
INCLUDE THE HANFORD DISTRICT. THE FOURTH OF JULY ALWAYS POSES A
CONCERN FOR HUMAN CAUSED FIRES IN THIS AREA DUE TO FIREWORKS...AND
EVEN 10-20 MPH WINDS POSE PROBLEMS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65 103  67 102 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  73 103  73 104 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  70 104  69 105 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  68 102  70 103 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  69 104  69 104 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  65 103  66 101 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  60  99  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  57  99  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  60 102  61 101 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  70 105  69 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ041-510-511.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ610-640-641.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ044.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ507.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR WAZ024.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ028.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ026-
     027-029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94




000
FXUS66 KPDT 020233
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
733 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA PRODUCED
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THESE WILL DISSIPATE AT SUNSET WITH CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE A BIT
AND EXPECT HIGHS 2-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. THAT WILL PUT MOST
OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND VALLEYS AT 100-105. LOCALLY BREEZY WEST
WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.  94

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PRODUCE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO WESTERN CANADA LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. IT WILL ALSO CREATE
SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CASCADES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS A
FOUR CORNERS HIGH CONTINUES TO HOLD WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST ATTEMPTS TO SPIN UP MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO THE AREA.  ALL OTHER AREAS CAN EXPECT CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  IF THE LOW PROGRESSES FURTHER
INLAND AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH...EXPECT AN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON AND ADJACENT AREAS.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS. WEBER

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS.  WEBER

FIRE WEATHER...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING ON INFRARED.  THERE MAY BE A ROGUE
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF DESCHUTES COUNTY IN FIRE ZONE 611 THIS EVENING
SO WILL KEEP IN THE FORECAST.  THERE MAY BE A FEW TOWERING CUMULUS
IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
WILL BE THE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS...AND ANY WIND THAT INCREASES MAY
RESULT IN RAPID FIRE SPREAD FOR NEW AND EXISTING FIRES.  THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH THAT BEGINS THURSDAY IN THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIGHT IN ALL ZONES THURSDAY.  THE WINDS ON FRIDAY AND EVEN ON
SATURDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY GUSTY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.  WILL KEEP THE
WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE OREGON
COLUMBIA BASIN AND CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND WILL ALSO
INCLUDE THE HANFORD DISTRICT. THE FOURTH OF JULY ALWAYS POSES A
CONCERN FOR HUMAN CAUSED FIRES IN THIS AREA DUE TO FIREWORKS...AND
EVEN 10-20 MPH WINDS POSE PROBLEMS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65 103  67 102 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  73 103  73 104 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  70 104  69 105 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  68 102  70 103 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  69 104  69 104 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  65 103  66 101 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  60  99  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  57  99  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  60 102  61 101 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  70 105  69 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ041-510-511.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ610-640-641.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ044.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ507.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR WAZ024.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ028.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ026-
     027-029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94



000
FXUS66 KMFR 012213
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
313 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 2 TO 6 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT HOTTER THAN
THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. DUE TO HIGHER RECORDS TODAY AND TOMORROW,
SOME AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST THEY
HAVE BEEN ALL YEAR, THUS FAR, BUT WILL NOT BREAK RECORDS. RECORDS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TODAY AND TOMORROW EAST OF THE CASCADES,
WHERE THE RECORDS ARE LOWER. THE HEAT WILL NOT ABATE MUCH,
HOWEVER, AS WE GO INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AND WE DO EXPECT MORE
RECORDS TO BE BROKEN THEN, IN PART, BECAUSE THE CALENDAR DAY
RECORDS ARE LOWER THEN. THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ILLINOIS, ROGUE,
AND VALLEYS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE 4TH
OF JULY DUE TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT IMPACTING LEVELS.

POSSIBILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE REMAIN A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, CENTERED
ON LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY STORMS COULD BE BRIEFLY SCATTERED IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY. THE NAM12 INDICATES THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
TRIGGERING THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FURTHER NORTH AND MORE ROBUST
THAN DOES THE GFS40. THE SECOND OF THESE IMPULSE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY APPEARS MORE ROBUST AND IS PRESENT IN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS. THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN OVER THE OREGON
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE
COULD PUSH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MOSTLY AWAY FROM THAT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

OF NOTE, FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF ACROSS THE AREA. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH, OS IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT MIGHT BE
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE, BUT STILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 01/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR CIGS
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS WILL
CLEAR TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT POSSIBLY ALONG SOME OF THE
BEACHES. THE LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO
APPROXIMATELY THE SAME AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES NEAR AND NORTH
OF CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK AND IN SISKIYOU COUNTY NEAR THE TRINITY
ALPS AND SOUTHERN SCOTT AND SHASTA VALLEYS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT, WEDNESDAY, 1 JULY 2015... A STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN LATE TODAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS, SO
HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DUE TO THE
LONG PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS, STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL, BUT OVERALL, SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY. -BPN

&&

.CLIMATE...THE PAST RECORD FOR WARMEST JUNE IN MEDFORD WAS
DESTROYED BY 4.2 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. CONSIDERING THAT ONLY ONE
DEGREE SEPARATES THE TENTH WARMEST JUNE AND THE SECOND WARMEST
JUNE SINCE 1911...4.2 DEGREES IS AMAZING. 21 DAYS REACHED 90
DEGREES OR GREATER IN JUNE 2015...WITH 5 100-DEGREE DAYS AND 6
DAILY RECORDS BROKEN...INCLUDING THE ALL-TIME HIGHEST OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 76 DEGREES. AT LEAST 8 OTHER LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RECORDED THE HOTTEST JUNE
ON RECORD. NSK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/CC/BPN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 012213
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
313 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 2 TO 6 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT HOTTER THAN
THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. DUE TO HIGHER RECORDS TODAY AND TOMORROW,
SOME AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST THEY
HAVE BEEN ALL YEAR, THUS FAR, BUT WILL NOT BREAK RECORDS. RECORDS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TODAY AND TOMORROW EAST OF THE CASCADES,
WHERE THE RECORDS ARE LOWER. THE HEAT WILL NOT ABATE MUCH,
HOWEVER, AS WE GO INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AND WE DO EXPECT MORE
RECORDS TO BE BROKEN THEN, IN PART, BECAUSE THE CALENDAR DAY
RECORDS ARE LOWER THEN. THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ILLINOIS, ROGUE,
AND VALLEYS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE 4TH
OF JULY DUE TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT IMPACTING LEVELS.

POSSIBILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE REMAIN A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, CENTERED
ON LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY STORMS COULD BE BRIEFLY SCATTERED IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY. THE NAM12 INDICATES THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
TRIGGERING THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FURTHER NORTH AND MORE ROBUST
THAN DOES THE GFS40. THE SECOND OF THESE IMPULSE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY APPEARS MORE ROBUST AND IS PRESENT IN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS. THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN OVER THE OREGON
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE
COULD PUSH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MOSTLY AWAY FROM THAT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

OF NOTE, FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF ACROSS THE AREA. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH, OS IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT MIGHT BE
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE, BUT STILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 01/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR CIGS
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS WILL
CLEAR TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT POSSIBLY ALONG SOME OF THE
BEACHES. THE LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO
APPROXIMATELY THE SAME AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES NEAR AND NORTH
OF CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK AND IN SISKIYOU COUNTY NEAR THE TRINITY
ALPS AND SOUTHERN SCOTT AND SHASTA VALLEYS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT, WEDNESDAY, 1 JULY 2015... A STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN LATE TODAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS, SO
HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DUE TO THE
LONG PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS, STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL, BUT OVERALL, SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY. -BPN

&&

.CLIMATE...THE PAST RECORD FOR WARMEST JUNE IN MEDFORD WAS
DESTROYED BY 4.2 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. CONSIDERING THAT ONLY ONE
DEGREE SEPARATES THE TENTH WARMEST JUNE AND THE SECOND WARMEST
JUNE SINCE 1911...4.2 DEGREES IS AMAZING. 21 DAYS REACHED 90
DEGREES OR GREATER IN JUNE 2015...WITH 5 100-DEGREE DAYS AND 6
DAILY RECORDS BROKEN...INCLUDING THE ALL-TIME HIGHEST OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 76 DEGREES. AT LEAST 8 OTHER LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RECORDED THE HOTTEST JUNE
ON RECORD. NSK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/CC/BPN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 012213
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
313 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 2 TO 6 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT HOTTER THAN
THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. DUE TO HIGHER RECORDS TODAY AND TOMORROW,
SOME AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST THEY
HAVE BEEN ALL YEAR, THUS FAR, BUT WILL NOT BREAK RECORDS. RECORDS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TODAY AND TOMORROW EAST OF THE CASCADES,
WHERE THE RECORDS ARE LOWER. THE HEAT WILL NOT ABATE MUCH,
HOWEVER, AS WE GO INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AND WE DO EXPECT MORE
RECORDS TO BE BROKEN THEN, IN PART, BECAUSE THE CALENDAR DAY
RECORDS ARE LOWER THEN. THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ILLINOIS, ROGUE,
AND VALLEYS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE 4TH
OF JULY DUE TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT IMPACTING LEVELS.

POSSIBILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE REMAIN A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, CENTERED
ON LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY STORMS COULD BE BRIEFLY SCATTERED IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY. THE NAM12 INDICATES THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
TRIGGERING THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FURTHER NORTH AND MORE ROBUST
THAN DOES THE GFS40. THE SECOND OF THESE IMPULSE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY APPEARS MORE ROBUST AND IS PRESENT IN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS. THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN OVER THE OREGON
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE
COULD PUSH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MOSTLY AWAY FROM THAT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

OF NOTE, FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF ACROSS THE AREA. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH, OS IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT MIGHT BE
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE, BUT STILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 01/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR CIGS
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS WILL
CLEAR TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT POSSIBLY ALONG SOME OF THE
BEACHES. THE LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO
APPROXIMATELY THE SAME AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES NEAR AND NORTH
OF CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK AND IN SISKIYOU COUNTY NEAR THE TRINITY
ALPS AND SOUTHERN SCOTT AND SHASTA VALLEYS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT, WEDNESDAY, 1 JULY 2015... A STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN LATE TODAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS, SO
HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DUE TO THE
LONG PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS, STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL, BUT OVERALL, SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY. -BPN

&&

.CLIMATE...THE PAST RECORD FOR WARMEST JUNE IN MEDFORD WAS
DESTROYED BY 4.2 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. CONSIDERING THAT ONLY ONE
DEGREE SEPARATES THE TENTH WARMEST JUNE AND THE SECOND WARMEST
JUNE SINCE 1911...4.2 DEGREES IS AMAZING. 21 DAYS REACHED 90
DEGREES OR GREATER IN JUNE 2015...WITH 5 100-DEGREE DAYS AND 6
DAILY RECORDS BROKEN...INCLUDING THE ALL-TIME HIGHEST OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 76 DEGREES. AT LEAST 8 OTHER LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RECORDED THE HOTTEST JUNE
ON RECORD. NSK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/CC/BPN




000
FXUS66 KPQR 012112
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
215 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
THE HEAT WAVE GOING WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR SOME COOLING COMES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS INLAND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES THAT EXTENDED FROM THE SW
STATES TO OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL KEEP A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT...LIKELY
RESULTING IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES. WITH A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW AND SATELLITE SHOWING MOST OF THE MARINE CLOUDS GONE THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT ONLY A LIMITED AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND FOG TO REFORM
ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING.

MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...BRUSHING ACROSS WA THU AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SAT. THE AFFECTS
OF THE SHORTWAVES THOUGH APPEAR MINIMAL...PERHAPS A LITTLE STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW FOR FRI AND SAT AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS..BUT WITH H8
TEMPS STILL IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 23 DEG C EACH DAY. A STRENGTHENED
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE INLAND SPREAD OF MORNING
CLOUDS BY FRI AND SAT. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO TOP OUT IN
THE 90S IN INLAND VALLEYS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY
THROUGH FRI...BUT UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS MORE THAN EXPECTED
LATE THIS WEEK WOULD EXPECT A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF THE ADVISORY
NEEDING TO BE EXTENDED LATER ON.

.LONG TERM...THE STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE AS THE HIGH
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NE PACIFIC OFF THE BC COAST. A LOW OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER OFF THE CA COAST ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THE RIDGE LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A COL. AFTER ANOTHER HOT
DAY OR TWO SUN INTO MON...THE DEVELOPING TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL
LOWER HEIGHTS AND ENCOURAGE A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. THIS IS LIKELY
TO RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS TUE AND WED AND MORE MARINE CLOUDS PUSHING
INLAND. THE REGION WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SUSCEPTIBLE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AT TIMES SPREADING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALOFT UP FROM
THE S.
&&

.AVIATION...DRY SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH CLEAR SKIES. AREAS OF LIFR
STRATUS AND FOG PERSISTING ALONG THE COASTAL BEACHES FROM LINCOLN
CITY SOUTHWARD. THIS STRATUS MAY CLEAR BRIEFLY THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL THINK WILL HAVE AREAS OF LIFR STRATUS REFORM ALONG CENTRAL
OREGON COAST AND SOUTHWARD AFTER 07Z AS THE GUSTY N WINDS EASE.
LIKELY BE MORE CLEAR TO N...WITH SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
ONLY TO N OF KTMK.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...DRY SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH CLEAR SKIES. NW
WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER 06Z.                        ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...PRETTY PERSISTENT PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRES TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE PAC THRU SAT THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. THERMALLY-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE N
CAL AND S OREGON COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
WATERS. STRONGEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT DURING FROM THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WIND WILL EASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
GRADIENTS DIMINISH. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A SWITCH
TO A FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND LATE SUN.

NW SWELL 5 TO 7 FT WILL CONTINUE...BUT WILL HAVE SOME WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN SEAS AS WELL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH STEEP AND CHOPPY
CONDITIONS. A BUILDING NW SWELL LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE FRI AND
SAT...POSSIBLY REACHING 10 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH FRI EVENING FOR MOST OF INLAND NW
          OREGON.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH FRI EVENING OF INLAND LOWLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THU
         NIGHT.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 012112
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
215 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
THE HEAT WAVE GOING WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR SOME COOLING COMES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS INLAND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES THAT EXTENDED FROM THE SW
STATES TO OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL KEEP A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT...LIKELY
RESULTING IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES. WITH A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW AND SATELLITE SHOWING MOST OF THE MARINE CLOUDS GONE THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT ONLY A LIMITED AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND FOG TO REFORM
ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING.

MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...BRUSHING ACROSS WA THU AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SAT. THE AFFECTS
OF THE SHORTWAVES THOUGH APPEAR MINIMAL...PERHAPS A LITTLE STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW FOR FRI AND SAT AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS..BUT WITH H8
TEMPS STILL IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 23 DEG C EACH DAY. A STRENGTHENED
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE INLAND SPREAD OF MORNING
CLOUDS BY FRI AND SAT. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO TOP OUT IN
THE 90S IN INLAND VALLEYS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY
THROUGH FRI...BUT UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS MORE THAN EXPECTED
LATE THIS WEEK WOULD EXPECT A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF THE ADVISORY
NEEDING TO BE EXTENDED LATER ON.

.LONG TERM...THE STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE AS THE HIGH
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NE PACIFIC OFF THE BC COAST. A LOW OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER OFF THE CA COAST ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THE RIDGE LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A COL. AFTER ANOTHER HOT
DAY OR TWO SUN INTO MON...THE DEVELOPING TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL
LOWER HEIGHTS AND ENCOURAGE A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. THIS IS LIKELY
TO RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS TUE AND WED AND MORE MARINE CLOUDS PUSHING
INLAND. THE REGION WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SUSCEPTIBLE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AT TIMES SPREADING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALOFT UP FROM
THE S.
&&

.AVIATION...DRY SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH CLEAR SKIES. AREAS OF LIFR
STRATUS AND FOG PERSISTING ALONG THE COASTAL BEACHES FROM LINCOLN
CITY SOUTHWARD. THIS STRATUS MAY CLEAR BRIEFLY THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL THINK WILL HAVE AREAS OF LIFR STRATUS REFORM ALONG CENTRAL
OREGON COAST AND SOUTHWARD AFTER 07Z AS THE GUSTY N WINDS EASE.
LIKELY BE MORE CLEAR TO N...WITH SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
ONLY TO N OF KTMK.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...DRY SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH CLEAR SKIES. NW
WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER 06Z.                        ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...PRETTY PERSISTENT PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRES TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE PAC THRU SAT THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. THERMALLY-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE N
CAL AND S OREGON COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
WATERS. STRONGEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT DURING FROM THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WIND WILL EASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
GRADIENTS DIMINISH. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A SWITCH
TO A FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND LATE SUN.

NW SWELL 5 TO 7 FT WILL CONTINUE...BUT WILL HAVE SOME WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN SEAS AS WELL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH STEEP AND CHOPPY
CONDITIONS. A BUILDING NW SWELL LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE FRI AND
SAT...POSSIBLY REACHING 10 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH FRI EVENING FOR MOST OF INLAND NW
          OREGON.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH FRI EVENING OF INLAND LOWLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THU
         NIGHT.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 012112
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
215 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
THE HEAT WAVE GOING WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR SOME COOLING COMES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS INLAND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES THAT EXTENDED FROM THE SW
STATES TO OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL KEEP A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT...LIKELY
RESULTING IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES. WITH A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW AND SATELLITE SHOWING MOST OF THE MARINE CLOUDS GONE THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT ONLY A LIMITED AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND FOG TO REFORM
ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING.

MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...BRUSHING ACROSS WA THU AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SAT. THE AFFECTS
OF THE SHORTWAVES THOUGH APPEAR MINIMAL...PERHAPS A LITTLE STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW FOR FRI AND SAT AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS..BUT WITH H8
TEMPS STILL IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 23 DEG C EACH DAY. A STRENGTHENED
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE INLAND SPREAD OF MORNING
CLOUDS BY FRI AND SAT. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO TOP OUT IN
THE 90S IN INLAND VALLEYS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY
THROUGH FRI...BUT UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS MORE THAN EXPECTED
LATE THIS WEEK WOULD EXPECT A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF THE ADVISORY
NEEDING TO BE EXTENDED LATER ON.

.LONG TERM...THE STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE AS THE HIGH
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NE PACIFIC OFF THE BC COAST. A LOW OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER OFF THE CA COAST ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THE RIDGE LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A COL. AFTER ANOTHER HOT
DAY OR TWO SUN INTO MON...THE DEVELOPING TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL
LOWER HEIGHTS AND ENCOURAGE A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. THIS IS LIKELY
TO RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS TUE AND WED AND MORE MARINE CLOUDS PUSHING
INLAND. THE REGION WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SUSCEPTIBLE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AT TIMES SPREADING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALOFT UP FROM
THE S.
&&

.AVIATION...DRY SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH CLEAR SKIES. AREAS OF LIFR
STRATUS AND FOG PERSISTING ALONG THE COASTAL BEACHES FROM LINCOLN
CITY SOUTHWARD. THIS STRATUS MAY CLEAR BRIEFLY THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL THINK WILL HAVE AREAS OF LIFR STRATUS REFORM ALONG CENTRAL
OREGON COAST AND SOUTHWARD AFTER 07Z AS THE GUSTY N WINDS EASE.
LIKELY BE MORE CLEAR TO N...WITH SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
ONLY TO N OF KTMK.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...DRY SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH CLEAR SKIES. NW
WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER 06Z.                        ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...PRETTY PERSISTENT PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRES TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE PAC THRU SAT THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. THERMALLY-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE N
CAL AND S OREGON COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
WATERS. STRONGEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT DURING FROM THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WIND WILL EASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
GRADIENTS DIMINISH. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A SWITCH
TO A FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND LATE SUN.

NW SWELL 5 TO 7 FT WILL CONTINUE...BUT WILL HAVE SOME WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN SEAS AS WELL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH STEEP AND CHOPPY
CONDITIONS. A BUILDING NW SWELL LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE FRI AND
SAT...POSSIBLY REACHING 10 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH FRI EVENING FOR MOST OF INLAND NW
          OREGON.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH FRI EVENING OF INLAND LOWLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THU
         NIGHT.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 012112
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
215 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
THE HEAT WAVE GOING WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR SOME COOLING COMES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS INLAND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES THAT EXTENDED FROM THE SW
STATES TO OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL KEEP A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT...LIKELY
RESULTING IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES. WITH A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW AND SATELLITE SHOWING MOST OF THE MARINE CLOUDS GONE THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT ONLY A LIMITED AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND FOG TO REFORM
ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING.

MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...BRUSHING ACROSS WA THU AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SAT. THE AFFECTS
OF THE SHORTWAVES THOUGH APPEAR MINIMAL...PERHAPS A LITTLE STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW FOR FRI AND SAT AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS..BUT WITH H8
TEMPS STILL IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 23 DEG C EACH DAY. A STRENGTHENED
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE INLAND SPREAD OF MORNING
CLOUDS BY FRI AND SAT. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO TOP OUT IN
THE 90S IN INLAND VALLEYS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY
THROUGH FRI...BUT UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS MORE THAN EXPECTED
LATE THIS WEEK WOULD EXPECT A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF THE ADVISORY
NEEDING TO BE EXTENDED LATER ON.

.LONG TERM...THE STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE AS THE HIGH
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NE PACIFIC OFF THE BC COAST. A LOW OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER OFF THE CA COAST ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THE RIDGE LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A COL. AFTER ANOTHER HOT
DAY OR TWO SUN INTO MON...THE DEVELOPING TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL
LOWER HEIGHTS AND ENCOURAGE A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. THIS IS LIKELY
TO RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS TUE AND WED AND MORE MARINE CLOUDS PUSHING
INLAND. THE REGION WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SUSCEPTIBLE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AT TIMES SPREADING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALOFT UP FROM
THE S.
&&

.AVIATION...DRY SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH CLEAR SKIES. AREAS OF LIFR
STRATUS AND FOG PERSISTING ALONG THE COASTAL BEACHES FROM LINCOLN
CITY SOUTHWARD. THIS STRATUS MAY CLEAR BRIEFLY THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL THINK WILL HAVE AREAS OF LIFR STRATUS REFORM ALONG CENTRAL
OREGON COAST AND SOUTHWARD AFTER 07Z AS THE GUSTY N WINDS EASE.
LIKELY BE MORE CLEAR TO N...WITH SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
ONLY TO N OF KTMK.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...DRY SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH CLEAR SKIES. NW
WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER 06Z.                        ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...PRETTY PERSISTENT PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRES TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE PAC THRU SAT THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. THERMALLY-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE N
CAL AND S OREGON COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
WATERS. STRONGEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT DURING FROM THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WIND WILL EASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
GRADIENTS DIMINISH. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A SWITCH
TO A FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND LATE SUN.

NW SWELL 5 TO 7 FT WILL CONTINUE...BUT WILL HAVE SOME WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN SEAS AS WELL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH STEEP AND CHOPPY
CONDITIONS. A BUILDING NW SWELL LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE FRI AND
SAT...POSSIBLY REACHING 10 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH FRI EVENING FOR MOST OF INLAND NW
          OREGON.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH FRI EVENING OF INLAND LOWLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THU
         NIGHT.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 012110
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
210 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PRODUCE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO WESTERN CANADA LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. IT WILL ALSO CREATE
SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CASCADES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS A
FOUR CORNERS HIGH CONTINUES TO HOLD WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST ATTEMPTS TO SPIN UP MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO THE AREA.  ALL OTHER AREAS CAN EXPECT CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  IF THE LOW PROGRESSES FURTHER
INLAND AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH...EXPECT AN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON AND ADJACENT AREAS.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS. WEBER


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS.  WEBER


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING ON INFRARED.  THERE MAY BE A ROGUE
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF DESCHUTES COUNTY IN FIRE ZONE 611 THIS EVENING
SO WILL KEEP IN THE FORECAST.  THERE MAY BE A FEW TOWERING CUMULUS
IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
WILL BE THE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS...AND ANY WIND THAT INCREASES MAY
RESULT IN RAPID FIRE SPREAD FOR NEW AND EXISTING FIRES.  THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH THAT BEGINS THURSDAY IN THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIGHT IN ALL ZONES THURSDAY.  THE WINDS ON FRIDAY AND EVEN ON
SATURDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY GUSTY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.  WILL KEEP THE
WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE OREGON
COLUMBIA BASIN AND CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND WILL ALSO
INCLUDE THE HANFORD DISTRICT. THE FOURTH OF JULY ALWAYS POSES A
CONCERN FOR HUMAN CAUSED FIRES IN THIS AREA DUE TO FIREWORKS...AND
EVEN 10-20 MPH WINDS POSE PROBLEMS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD.  WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65 102  67 102 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  73 103  73 104 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  70 104  69 105 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  68 103  70 103 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  69 104  69 104 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  65 103  66 101 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  60  99  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  57  97  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  60 102  61 101 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  70 103  69 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ041-510-511.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ610-640-641.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ044.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ507.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR WAZ024.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ028.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ026-
     027-029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89




000
FXUS66 KPDT 012110
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
210 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PRODUCE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO WESTERN CANADA LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. IT WILL ALSO CREATE
SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CASCADES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS A
FOUR CORNERS HIGH CONTINUES TO HOLD WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST ATTEMPTS TO SPIN UP MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO THE AREA.  ALL OTHER AREAS CAN EXPECT CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  IF THE LOW PROGRESSES FURTHER
INLAND AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH...EXPECT AN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON AND ADJACENT AREAS.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS. WEBER


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS.  WEBER


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING ON INFRARED.  THERE MAY BE A ROGUE
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF DESCHUTES COUNTY IN FIRE ZONE 611 THIS EVENING
SO WILL KEEP IN THE FORECAST.  THERE MAY BE A FEW TOWERING CUMULUS
IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
WILL BE THE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS...AND ANY WIND THAT INCREASES MAY
RESULT IN RAPID FIRE SPREAD FOR NEW AND EXISTING FIRES.  THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH THAT BEGINS THURSDAY IN THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIGHT IN ALL ZONES THURSDAY.  THE WINDS ON FRIDAY AND EVEN ON
SATURDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY GUSTY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.  WILL KEEP THE
WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE OREGON
COLUMBIA BASIN AND CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND WILL ALSO
INCLUDE THE HANFORD DISTRICT. THE FOURTH OF JULY ALWAYS POSES A
CONCERN FOR HUMAN CAUSED FIRES IN THIS AREA DUE TO FIREWORKS...AND
EVEN 10-20 MPH WINDS POSE PROBLEMS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD.  WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65 102  67 102 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  73 103  73 104 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  70 104  69 105 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  68 103  70 103 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  69 104  69 104 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  65 103  66 101 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  60  99  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  57  97  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  60 102  61 101 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  70 103  69 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ041-510-511.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ610-640-641.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ044.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ507.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR WAZ024.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ028.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ026-
     027-029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89




000
FXUS66 KPDT 012110
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
210 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PRODUCE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO WESTERN CANADA LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. IT WILL ALSO CREATE
SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CASCADES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS A
FOUR CORNERS HIGH CONTINUES TO HOLD WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST ATTEMPTS TO SPIN UP MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO THE AREA.  ALL OTHER AREAS CAN EXPECT CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  IF THE LOW PROGRESSES FURTHER
INLAND AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH...EXPECT AN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON AND ADJACENT AREAS.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS. WEBER


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS.  WEBER


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING ON INFRARED.  THERE MAY BE A ROGUE
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF DESCHUTES COUNTY IN FIRE ZONE 611 THIS EVENING
SO WILL KEEP IN THE FORECAST.  THERE MAY BE A FEW TOWERING CUMULUS
IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
WILL BE THE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS...AND ANY WIND THAT INCREASES MAY
RESULT IN RAPID FIRE SPREAD FOR NEW AND EXISTING FIRES.  THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH THAT BEGINS THURSDAY IN THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIGHT IN ALL ZONES THURSDAY.  THE WINDS ON FRIDAY AND EVEN ON
SATURDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY GUSTY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.  WILL KEEP THE
WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE OREGON
COLUMBIA BASIN AND CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND WILL ALSO
INCLUDE THE HANFORD DISTRICT. THE FOURTH OF JULY ALWAYS POSES A
CONCERN FOR HUMAN CAUSED FIRES IN THIS AREA DUE TO FIREWORKS...AND
EVEN 10-20 MPH WINDS POSE PROBLEMS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD.  WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65 102  67 102 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  73 103  73 104 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  70 104  69 105 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  68 103  70 103 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  69 104  69 104 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  65 103  66 101 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  60  99  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  57  97  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  60 102  61 101 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  70 103  69 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ041-510-511.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ610-640-641.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ044.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ507.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR WAZ024.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ028.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ026-
     027-029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89




000
FXUS66 KPDT 012110
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
210 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PRODUCE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO WESTERN CANADA LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. IT WILL ALSO CREATE
SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CASCADES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS A
FOUR CORNERS HIGH CONTINUES TO HOLD WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST ATTEMPTS TO SPIN UP MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO THE AREA.  ALL OTHER AREAS CAN EXPECT CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  IF THE LOW PROGRESSES FURTHER
INLAND AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH...EXPECT AN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON AND ADJACENT AREAS.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS. WEBER


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS.  WEBER


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING ON INFRARED.  THERE MAY BE A ROGUE
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF DESCHUTES COUNTY IN FIRE ZONE 611 THIS EVENING
SO WILL KEEP IN THE FORECAST.  THERE MAY BE A FEW TOWERING CUMULUS
IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
WILL BE THE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS...AND ANY WIND THAT INCREASES MAY
RESULT IN RAPID FIRE SPREAD FOR NEW AND EXISTING FIRES.  THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH THAT BEGINS THURSDAY IN THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIGHT IN ALL ZONES THURSDAY.  THE WINDS ON FRIDAY AND EVEN ON
SATURDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY GUSTY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.  WILL KEEP THE
WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE OREGON
COLUMBIA BASIN AND CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND WILL ALSO
INCLUDE THE HANFORD DISTRICT. THE FOURTH OF JULY ALWAYS POSES A
CONCERN FOR HUMAN CAUSED FIRES IN THIS AREA DUE TO FIREWORKS...AND
EVEN 10-20 MPH WINDS POSE PROBLEMS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD.  WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65 102  67 102 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  73 103  73 104 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  70 104  69 105 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  68 103  70 103 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  69 104  69 104 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  65 103  66 101 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  60  99  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  57  97  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  60 102  61 101 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  70 103  69 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ041-510-511.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ610-640-641.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ044.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ507.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR WAZ024.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ028.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ026-
     027-029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89




000
FXUS66 KPDT 012110
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
210 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PRODUCE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO WESTERN CANADA LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. IT WILL ALSO CREATE
SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CASCADES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS A
FOUR CORNERS HIGH CONTINUES TO HOLD WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST ATTEMPTS TO SPIN UP MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO THE AREA.  ALL OTHER AREAS CAN EXPECT CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  IF THE LOW PROGRESSES FURTHER
INLAND AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH...EXPECT AN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON AND ADJACENT AREAS.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS. WEBER


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS.  WEBER


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING ON INFRARED.  THERE MAY BE A ROGUE
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF DESCHUTES COUNTY IN FIRE ZONE 611 THIS EVENING
SO WILL KEEP IN THE FORECAST.  THERE MAY BE A FEW TOWERING CUMULUS
IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
WILL BE THE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS...AND ANY WIND THAT INCREASES MAY
RESULT IN RAPID FIRE SPREAD FOR NEW AND EXISTING FIRES.  THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH THAT BEGINS THURSDAY IN THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIGHT IN ALL ZONES THURSDAY.  THE WINDS ON FRIDAY AND EVEN ON
SATURDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY GUSTY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.  WILL KEEP THE
WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE OREGON
COLUMBIA BASIN AND CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND WILL ALSO
INCLUDE THE HANFORD DISTRICT. THE FOURTH OF JULY ALWAYS POSES A
CONCERN FOR HUMAN CAUSED FIRES IN THIS AREA DUE TO FIREWORKS...AND
EVEN 10-20 MPH WINDS POSE PROBLEMS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD.  WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65 102  67 102 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  73 103  73 104 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  70 104  69 105 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  68 103  70 103 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  69 104  69 104 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  65 103  66 101 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  60  99  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  57  97  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  60 102  61 101 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  70 103  69 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ041-510-511.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ610-640-641.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ044.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ507.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR WAZ024.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ028.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ026-
     027-029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89




000
FXUS65 KBOI 012028
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
228 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEW
MEXICO TO SRN OREGON.  MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
CALIF SIERRA NEVADA WILL HELP FORM THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
NV/OR BORDER LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
NEVADA WILL GET AS FAR NORTH AS THE NV/ID BORDER.  ABOUT THE SAME
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS.  NO STORMS EXPECTED IN THE
REST OF OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY.  A DEGREE OR TWO HOTTER THURSDAY
THEN LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
IS BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE NEAR 140W.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY THEN BACK TO WESTERLY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS DROP
SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN WEST COAST AND THEN MOVE EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.  FIRST TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT.  EVEN THOUGH MODELS AGREE ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN THEY DISAGREE ON LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE.  AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SHIFT
TO HIGHER TERRAIN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE GFS
BEING THE WETTEST AND THE ECMWF THE DRIEST.  SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE
AND ANY MOISTURE THAT MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN NEVADA.
SURFACE WINDS 12 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVITATION....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 012028
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
228 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEW
MEXICO TO SRN OREGON.  MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
CALIF SIERRA NEVADA WILL HELP FORM THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
NV/OR BORDER LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
NEVADA WILL GET AS FAR NORTH AS THE NV/ID BORDER.  ABOUT THE SAME
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS.  NO STORMS EXPECTED IN THE
REST OF OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY.  A DEGREE OR TWO HOTTER THURSDAY
THEN LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
IS BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE NEAR 140W.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY THEN BACK TO WESTERLY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS DROP
SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN WEST COAST AND THEN MOVE EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.  FIRST TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT.  EVEN THOUGH MODELS AGREE ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN THEY DISAGREE ON LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE.  AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SHIFT
TO HIGHER TERRAIN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE GFS
BEING THE WETTEST AND THE ECMWF THE DRIEST.  SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE
AND ANY MOISTURE THAT MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN NEVADA.
SURFACE WINDS 12 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVITATION....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 012028
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
228 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEW
MEXICO TO SRN OREGON.  MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
CALIF SIERRA NEVADA WILL HELP FORM THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
NV/OR BORDER LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
NEVADA WILL GET AS FAR NORTH AS THE NV/ID BORDER.  ABOUT THE SAME
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS.  NO STORMS EXPECTED IN THE
REST OF OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY.  A DEGREE OR TWO HOTTER THURSDAY
THEN LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
IS BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE NEAR 140W.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY THEN BACK TO WESTERLY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS DROP
SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN WEST COAST AND THEN MOVE EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.  FIRST TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT.  EVEN THOUGH MODELS AGREE ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN THEY DISAGREE ON LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE.  AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SHIFT
TO HIGHER TERRAIN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE GFS
BEING THE WETTEST AND THE ECMWF THE DRIEST.  SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE
AND ANY MOISTURE THAT MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN NEVADA.
SURFACE WINDS 12 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVITATION....JA




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