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000
FXUS66 KMFR 302134
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
234 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXIST FOR LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO
FORM IN THE UMPQUA BASIN TONIGHT. MEANWHILE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EAST
OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHT WINDS, LONGER NIGHTS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICK AFTER DARK AND
IT`S LIKELY WE`LL SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN SOME OF
THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NORTHWEST LAKE
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
THUS THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PICTURE FOR
THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MIGRATING EAST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARNING UP EACH DAY AND WERE LIKELY TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT`S POSSIBLE WE COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 IN PARTS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT`S STILL GOING TO BE COLD AT
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND MODELS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH. AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING, NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY END UP
HIGHER, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE THEM DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH, LAKE AND JUST EAST OF
MOUNT SHASTA.

AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WITH INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID
SLOPES AND RIDGES. MEANWHILE AN INVERSION IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE LOCAL VFR CIGS INTO THIS EVENING
WITH COVERAGE MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WITH OBSCURATION OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR LATE THIS EVENING THEN A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 10Z) AND PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 16Z. /DW


&&

.MARINE...


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY
     TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 302134
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
234 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXIST FOR LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO
FORM IN THE UMPQUA BASIN TONIGHT. MEANWHILE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EAST
OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHT WINDS, LONGER NIGHTS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICK AFTER DARK AND
IT`S LIKELY WE`LL SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN SOME OF
THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NORTHWEST LAKE
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
THUS THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PICTURE FOR
THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MIGRATING EAST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARNING UP EACH DAY AND WERE LIKELY TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT`S POSSIBLE WE COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 IN PARTS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT`S STILL GOING TO BE COLD AT
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND MODELS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH. AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING, NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY END UP
HIGHER, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE THEM DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH, LAKE AND JUST EAST OF
MOUNT SHASTA.

AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WITH INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID
SLOPES AND RIDGES. MEANWHILE AN INVERSION IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE LOCAL VFR CIGS INTO THIS EVENING
WITH COVERAGE MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WITH OBSCURATION OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR LATE THIS EVENING THEN A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 10Z) AND PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 16Z. /DW


&&

.MARINE...


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY
     TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 302134
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
234 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXIST FOR LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO
FORM IN THE UMPQUA BASIN TONIGHT. MEANWHILE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EAST
OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHT WINDS, LONGER NIGHTS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICK AFTER DARK AND
IT`S LIKELY WE`LL SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN SOME OF
THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NORTHWEST LAKE
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
THUS THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PICTURE FOR
THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MIGRATING EAST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARNING UP EACH DAY AND WERE LIKELY TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT`S POSSIBLE WE COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 IN PARTS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT`S STILL GOING TO BE COLD AT
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND MODELS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH. AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING, NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY END UP
HIGHER, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE THEM DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH, LAKE AND JUST EAST OF
MOUNT SHASTA.

AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WITH INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID
SLOPES AND RIDGES. MEANWHILE AN INVERSION IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE LOCAL VFR CIGS INTO THIS EVENING
WITH COVERAGE MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WITH OBSCURATION OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR LATE THIS EVENING THEN A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 10Z) AND PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 16Z. /DW


&&

.MARINE...


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY
     TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 302134
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
234 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXIST FOR LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO
FORM IN THE UMPQUA BASIN TONIGHT. MEANWHILE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EAST
OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHT WINDS, LONGER NIGHTS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICK AFTER DARK AND
IT`S LIKELY WE`LL SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN SOME OF
THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NORTHWEST LAKE
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
THUS THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PICTURE FOR
THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MIGRATING EAST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARNING UP EACH DAY AND WERE LIKELY TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT`S POSSIBLE WE COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 IN PARTS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT`S STILL GOING TO BE COLD AT
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND MODELS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH. AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING, NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY END UP
HIGHER, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE THEM DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH, LAKE AND JUST EAST OF
MOUNT SHASTA.

AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WITH INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID
SLOPES AND RIDGES. MEANWHILE AN INVERSION IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE LOCAL VFR CIGS INTO THIS EVENING
WITH COVERAGE MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WITH OBSCURATION OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR LATE THIS EVENING THEN A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 10Z) AND PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 16Z. /DW


&&

.MARINE...


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY
     TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$




  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPDT 302117
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
220 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT TO HAVE GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER
SUNSET. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES STABLE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICK AFTER WINDS DECREASE WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S. COLDER LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
WILL BE IN THE 20S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH SOME
THIN CIRRUS SO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. NIGHTS WILL REMAIN
COOL AS A DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.  94

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT A QUIET PERIOD
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS DRY
AND WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN SOME AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WEAKENING OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLY
BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE/SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL BE BTWN 15 TO 30 KTS THRU 01/03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AOB 10
KTS OVERNIGHT.  MVFR HAZE AND/OR AREAS OF BLOWING DUST INVOF OF KPDT
IS POSSIBLE THRU 01/03Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. VICINITY SHOWERS NEAR KPDT AND KALW DUE TO PASSING
SHORTWAVE BTWN 01/00Z TO 01/04Z. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  67  39  69 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  43  67  43  70 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  39  70  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  36  68  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  38  69  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  40  65  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  27  64  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  36  63  34  67 /  20   0   0   0
GCD  30  64  31  71 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  44  69  42  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/77/77





000
FXUS66 KPDT 302117
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
220 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT TO HAVE GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER
SUNSET. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES STABLE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICK AFTER WINDS DECREASE WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S. COLDER LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
WILL BE IN THE 20S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH SOME
THIN CIRRUS SO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. NIGHTS WILL REMAIN
COOL AS A DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.  94

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT A QUIET PERIOD
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS DRY
AND WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN SOME AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WEAKENING OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLY
BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE/SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL BE BTWN 15 TO 30 KTS THRU 01/03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AOB 10
KTS OVERNIGHT.  MVFR HAZE AND/OR AREAS OF BLOWING DUST INVOF OF KPDT
IS POSSIBLE THRU 01/03Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. VICINITY SHOWERS NEAR KPDT AND KALW DUE TO PASSING
SHORTWAVE BTWN 01/00Z TO 01/04Z. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  67  39  69 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  43  67  43  70 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  39  70  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  36  68  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  38  69  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  40  65  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  27  64  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  36  63  34  67 /  20   0   0   0
GCD  30  64  31  71 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  44  69  42  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/77/77





000
FXUS66 KPDT 302117
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
220 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT TO HAVE GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER
SUNSET. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES STABLE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICK AFTER WINDS DECREASE WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S. COLDER LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
WILL BE IN THE 20S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH SOME
THIN CIRRUS SO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. NIGHTS WILL REMAIN
COOL AS A DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.  94

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT A QUIET PERIOD
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS DRY
AND WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN SOME AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WEAKENING OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLY
BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE/SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL BE BTWN 15 TO 30 KTS THRU 01/03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AOB 10
KTS OVERNIGHT.  MVFR HAZE AND/OR AREAS OF BLOWING DUST INVOF OF KPDT
IS POSSIBLE THRU 01/03Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. VICINITY SHOWERS NEAR KPDT AND KALW DUE TO PASSING
SHORTWAVE BTWN 01/00Z TO 01/04Z. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  67  39  69 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  43  67  43  70 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  39  70  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  36  68  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  38  69  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  40  65  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  27  64  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  36  63  34  67 /  20   0   0   0
GCD  30  64  31  71 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  44  69  42  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/77/77





000
FXUS66 KPDT 302117
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
220 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT TO HAVE GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER
SUNSET. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES STABLE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICK AFTER WINDS DECREASE WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S. COLDER LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
WILL BE IN THE 20S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH SOME
THIN CIRRUS SO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. NIGHTS WILL REMAIN
COOL AS A DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.  94

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT A QUIET PERIOD
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS DRY
AND WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN SOME AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WEAKENING OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLY
BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE/SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL BE BTWN 15 TO 30 KTS THRU 01/03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AOB 10
KTS OVERNIGHT.  MVFR HAZE AND/OR AREAS OF BLOWING DUST INVOF OF KPDT
IS POSSIBLE THRU 01/03Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. VICINITY SHOWERS NEAR KPDT AND KALW DUE TO PASSING
SHORTWAVE BTWN 01/00Z TO 01/04Z. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  67  39  69 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  43  67  43  70 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  39  70  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  36  68  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  38  69  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  40  65  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  27  64  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  36  63  34  67 /  20   0   0   0
GCD  30  64  31  71 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  44  69  42  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/77/77




  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 302039
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AND A LITTLE
COOLER AIR. PRECIP IS ONLY POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THEN FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE MTNS TOMORROW
MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS LATE WED
THROUGH THU AND BEYOND. WITH LOWERED HEIGHTS AND CONTINUED NW FLOW
ALOFT...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY
FOG IS FORECAST FOR TOMORROW MORNING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND
LOW-LYING SPOTS SEEING THAT WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BE NOTICEABLY
LIGHTER TOMORROW AND THU. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST THU...BUT AT THIS TIME IS FORECAST TO BE JUST A
LITTLE TOO FAR AWAY TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN
WEST COAST. EVEN WITH THE TIMING DIFFERENCES SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE HOW WARM OR COOL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KMYL. SURFACE
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KNOTS...BECOMING 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS IN THE MAGIC
VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 302039
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AND A LITTLE
COOLER AIR. PRECIP IS ONLY POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THEN FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE MTNS TOMORROW
MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS LATE WED
THROUGH THU AND BEYOND. WITH LOWERED HEIGHTS AND CONTINUED NW FLOW
ALOFT...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY
FOG IS FORECAST FOR TOMORROW MORNING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND
LOW-LYING SPOTS SEEING THAT WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BE NOTICEABLY
LIGHTER TOMORROW AND THU. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST THU...BUT AT THIS TIME IS FORECAST TO BE JUST A
LITTLE TOO FAR AWAY TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN
WEST COAST. EVEN WITH THE TIMING DIFFERENCES SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE HOW WARM OR COOL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KMYL. SURFACE
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KNOTS...BECOMING 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS IN THE MAGIC
VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS66 KPDT 301733 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1032 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION HOWEVER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION TODAY. NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE CASCADES AND BLUES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY CLEAR NOW BUT EXPECT SOME
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST WINDS IN THE GORGE AND
KITTITAS VALLEY. DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WINDS TONIGHT WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES. SOME LOCATIONS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. 94

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE BTWN 15
TO 30 KTS THRU 01/03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AOB 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
MVFR HAZE AND/OR AREAS OF BLOWING DUST INVOF OF KPDT IS POSSIBLE
THRU 01/03Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
VICINITY SHOWERS NEAR KPDT AND KALW DUE TO PASSING SHORTWAVE BTWN
01/00Z TO 01/04Z. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 109 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING BROUGHT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
CWA. THESE HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT TO LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FURTHER TODAY. WINDS IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15Z-00Z TODAY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY
AS A RESULT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING TIMES OF MAXIMUM
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX AND DUE TO
NIGHT TIME STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN CENTRAL OREGON (MADRAS...REDMOND AND BEND) ARE ALL EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING THERE
FOR TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. ON
WEDNESDAY COOL TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. 88

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD COVER BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON SATURDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE AND PERHAPS PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. ANY
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65  39  66  40 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  66  42  66  44 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  71  39  69  41 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  66  35  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  69  37  68  40 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  62  39  63  38 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  61  27  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  58  35  62  36 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  58  29  63  34 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  67  43  68  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/77/98







000
FXUS66 KPDT 301733 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1032 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION HOWEVER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION TODAY. NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE CASCADES AND BLUES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY CLEAR NOW BUT EXPECT SOME
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST WINDS IN THE GORGE AND
KITTITAS VALLEY. DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WINDS TONIGHT WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES. SOME LOCATIONS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. 94

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE BTWN 15
TO 30 KTS THRU 01/03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AOB 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
MVFR HAZE AND/OR AREAS OF BLOWING DUST INVOF OF KPDT IS POSSIBLE
THRU 01/03Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
VICINITY SHOWERS NEAR KPDT AND KALW DUE TO PASSING SHORTWAVE BTWN
01/00Z TO 01/04Z. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 109 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING BROUGHT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
CWA. THESE HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT TO LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FURTHER TODAY. WINDS IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15Z-00Z TODAY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY
AS A RESULT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING TIMES OF MAXIMUM
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX AND DUE TO
NIGHT TIME STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN CENTRAL OREGON (MADRAS...REDMOND AND BEND) ARE ALL EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING THERE
FOR TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. ON
WEDNESDAY COOL TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. 88

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD COVER BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON SATURDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE AND PERHAPS PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. ANY
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65  39  66  40 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  66  42  66  44 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  71  39  69  41 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  66  35  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  69  37  68  40 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  62  39  63  38 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  61  27  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  58  35  62  36 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  58  29  63  34 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  67  43  68  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/77/98





  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 301635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER THE PACIFIC NW
WILL KEEP A COOL SHOWERY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD IN OFF THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND WED...AND LAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.
&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...A LOOK AT THE LATEST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ARE LOCATED
OVER THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING
OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE DAY TODAY AS WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE NW FLOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO AGAIN RUN A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS OVER THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOW EAST OF THE CASCADES...AND
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. THE FCST MODELS
INDICATE THE NW FLOW WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHRINK
THE LOW LEVEL UNSTABLE LAYER FROM THE TOP DOWN THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING AN END TO ANY THREAT OF
SHOWERS BY WED MORNING.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO WA AND OREGON WED AND THU
TURN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW NORTHERLY DRYING THE AIR MASS. THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE E PACIFIC THOUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SOME AS IT SHIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT ANY THREAT FOR WARM
FRONTAL TYPE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE RESTRICTED N OF THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOME WED AND THU AS H8 TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO
AROUND 12 DEG C. PYLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. NOT MUCH
CHANCE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FCST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH FLAT
RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW. THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEPING
CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS OUR FCST AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT APPEARS
LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT RAIN TO BRUSH THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FCST
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...VARIABLE VFR CIGS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE
CASCADES. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CREATE BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS. AS UPPER
LOW PRES SLIDES INLAND...EXPECT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CALMING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...BETTER
CHANCES FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS GENERALLY ABOVE 4000
FT WITH MVFR CIGS OR VIS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. BOWEN/CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE BRIEF CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 25 KT. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OVER THE NE PAC TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THU
BRINGING A RETURN TO NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS. A THERMAL
LOW PRES MAY BUILD INTO THE S OREGON COAST BY WED OR THU TO
INCREASE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...BUT EXPECT WINDS
20 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 6-8 FT THROUGH
WED...BEFORE EASING LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER W SWELL WILL RETURN
SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT AT THE END OF THE WEEK. BOWEN/CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 301635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER THE PACIFIC NW
WILL KEEP A COOL SHOWERY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD IN OFF THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND WED...AND LAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.
&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...A LOOK AT THE LATEST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ARE LOCATED
OVER THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING
OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE DAY TODAY AS WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE NW FLOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO AGAIN RUN A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS OVER THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOW EAST OF THE CASCADES...AND
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. THE FCST MODELS
INDICATE THE NW FLOW WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHRINK
THE LOW LEVEL UNSTABLE LAYER FROM THE TOP DOWN THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING AN END TO ANY THREAT OF
SHOWERS BY WED MORNING.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO WA AND OREGON WED AND THU
TURN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW NORTHERLY DRYING THE AIR MASS. THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE E PACIFIC THOUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SOME AS IT SHIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT ANY THREAT FOR WARM
FRONTAL TYPE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE RESTRICTED N OF THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOME WED AND THU AS H8 TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO
AROUND 12 DEG C. PYLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. NOT MUCH
CHANCE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FCST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH FLAT
RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW. THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEPING
CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS OUR FCST AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT APPEARS
LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT RAIN TO BRUSH THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FCST
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...VARIABLE VFR CIGS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE
CASCADES. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CREATE BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS. AS UPPER
LOW PRES SLIDES INLAND...EXPECT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CALMING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...BETTER
CHANCES FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS GENERALLY ABOVE 4000
FT WITH MVFR CIGS OR VIS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. BOWEN/CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE BRIEF CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 25 KT. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OVER THE NE PAC TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THU
BRINGING A RETURN TO NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS. A THERMAL
LOW PRES MAY BUILD INTO THE S OREGON COAST BY WED OR THU TO
INCREASE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...BUT EXPECT WINDS
20 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 6-8 FT THROUGH
WED...BEFORE EASING LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER W SWELL WILL RETURN
SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT AT THE END OF THE WEEK. BOWEN/CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KMFR 301618
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
918 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER IN PARTS OF THE UMPQUA
BASIN AND NORTH COAST THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT LATER
THIS MORNING, BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
FORMING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA THE REST OF TODAY. MADE
SOME UPDATES TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF CRATER LAKE THIS MORNING, BUT I DON`T THINK
WE`LL GET ANYTHING MEASURABLE AND HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL
LIKELY DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS AND
WE`LL LIKELY ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS. - PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...
CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR BUT AREAS OF IFR CIGS AREA EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND INTO VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
INLAND, THE IFR CIGS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE UMPQUA VALLEY BUT
ISOLATED IFR IS POSSIBLE IN OTHER WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE COAST AND
INLAND TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING.
THEN EXPECT VFR AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 AM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014... HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE WATERS WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE
TODAY AND MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GALE FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. GUSTY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE
LATE THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH
SOME FRIDAY. THEN SEAS INCREASE DUE TO BUILDING WESTERLY SWELL
FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE WEEKEND, STEEP SEAS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ONCE MORE FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING AND
BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO MANY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. THERE WASN`T A LOT OF RAINFALL, GENERALLY TWO-TENTHS OF
AN INCH OR LESS...BUT THE FRONT DID MANAGE TO BRING A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS TO THE MEDFORD AIRPORT RAIN GAUGE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADES AND THE NORTH COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE SHOULD THIN OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN ALOFT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA AND COAST MAY HOLD ONTO
SOME CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, IT WILL BE COOL BY LATE
SEPTEMBER STANDARDS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND 70 DEGREES
OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND NO BETTER THAN THE LOW 60S OVER
THE EAST SIDE.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE CASCADES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS
IN THE COLDEST SPOTS NEAR KLAMATH MARSH WITH READINGS DOWN NEAR OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN KLAMATH FALLS, LAKEVIEW AND ALTURAS. AS A
RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS, DETAILS
OF WHICH CAN BE VIEWED AT NPWMFR. IN ADDITION, IT WILL GET QUITE
COLD IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. SOME LOCATIONS LIKE WEED AND MONTAGUE
MAY HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND A FROST ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT THERE. WEST OF THE CASCADES, IT WILL BE COOL IN THE
ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS, BUT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A FEW OUTLYING AREAS MAY REACH THE
MID 30S LIKE NEAR CAVE JUNCTION AND THE APPLEGATE, BUT PROBABLY
NOT LONG ENOUGH FOR FROST IMPACTS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FIRMLY OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE WEST
SIDE VALLEYS WITH GENERALLY MID 60S EAST SIDE. WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING EXPECT A BIT OF A CHETCO EFFECT WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S NEAR BROOKINGS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS POSSIBLE. A CLEAR SKY AND CALM WINDS WILL
MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESULT IN A VERY STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE
VERY SIMILAR TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...WHILE SURROUNDING HILLS AND RIDGES WILL BE COMPARATIVELY
MILDER. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
IN THE VALLEYS, BUT SLIGHTLY UPWARD FOR THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT TO BE ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING
THIS TIME. THE GFS FLATTENS THE RIDGE A BIT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE SCOOTS ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA, WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THIS FEATURE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR
WEATHER. OVERALL, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WE`LL HAVE PERSISTENT
WARM, DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN MEDFORD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
KLAMATH FALLS. SPILDE



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
     PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 301618
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
918 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER IN PARTS OF THE UMPQUA
BASIN AND NORTH COAST THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT LATER
THIS MORNING, BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
FORMING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA THE REST OF TODAY. MADE
SOME UPDATES TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF CRATER LAKE THIS MORNING, BUT I DON`T THINK
WE`LL GET ANYTHING MEASURABLE AND HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL
LIKELY DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS AND
WE`LL LIKELY ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS. - PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...
CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR BUT AREAS OF IFR CIGS AREA EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND INTO VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
INLAND, THE IFR CIGS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE UMPQUA VALLEY BUT
ISOLATED IFR IS POSSIBLE IN OTHER WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE COAST AND
INLAND TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING.
THEN EXPECT VFR AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 AM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014... HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE WATERS WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE
TODAY AND MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GALE FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. GUSTY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE
LATE THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH
SOME FRIDAY. THEN SEAS INCREASE DUE TO BUILDING WESTERLY SWELL
FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE WEEKEND, STEEP SEAS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ONCE MORE FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING AND
BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO MANY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. THERE WASN`T A LOT OF RAINFALL, GENERALLY TWO-TENTHS OF
AN INCH OR LESS...BUT THE FRONT DID MANAGE TO BRING A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS TO THE MEDFORD AIRPORT RAIN GAUGE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADES AND THE NORTH COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE SHOULD THIN OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN ALOFT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA AND COAST MAY HOLD ONTO
SOME CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, IT WILL BE COOL BY LATE
SEPTEMBER STANDARDS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND 70 DEGREES
OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND NO BETTER THAN THE LOW 60S OVER
THE EAST SIDE.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE CASCADES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS
IN THE COLDEST SPOTS NEAR KLAMATH MARSH WITH READINGS DOWN NEAR OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN KLAMATH FALLS, LAKEVIEW AND ALTURAS. AS A
RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS, DETAILS
OF WHICH CAN BE VIEWED AT NPWMFR. IN ADDITION, IT WILL GET QUITE
COLD IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. SOME LOCATIONS LIKE WEED AND MONTAGUE
MAY HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND A FROST ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT THERE. WEST OF THE CASCADES, IT WILL BE COOL IN THE
ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS, BUT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A FEW OUTLYING AREAS MAY REACH THE
MID 30S LIKE NEAR CAVE JUNCTION AND THE APPLEGATE, BUT PROBABLY
NOT LONG ENOUGH FOR FROST IMPACTS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FIRMLY OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE WEST
SIDE VALLEYS WITH GENERALLY MID 60S EAST SIDE. WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING EXPECT A BIT OF A CHETCO EFFECT WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S NEAR BROOKINGS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS POSSIBLE. A CLEAR SKY AND CALM WINDS WILL
MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESULT IN A VERY STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE
VERY SIMILAR TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...WHILE SURROUNDING HILLS AND RIDGES WILL BE COMPARATIVELY
MILDER. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
IN THE VALLEYS, BUT SLIGHTLY UPWARD FOR THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT TO BE ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING
THIS TIME. THE GFS FLATTENS THE RIDGE A BIT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE SCOOTS ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA, WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THIS FEATURE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR
WEATHER. OVERALL, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WE`LL HAVE PERSISTENT
WARM, DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN MEDFORD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
KLAMATH FALLS. SPILDE



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
     PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$






000
FXUS65 KBOI 301554
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
954 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKER ONE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. NO
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. SOUTHWEST IDAHO
THIS MORNING WILL HAVE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH LOCAL MVFR
AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS AND FOG AND AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS...
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS IN
THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST OF KBOI TO KJER/KTWF. WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE WESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING OUR CWA THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE B.C. COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE THIS MORNING...
DECREASING TO ISOLATED IN THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...15 TO 25 MPH EAST
OF BOISE THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...REPLACED
BY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. MODELS AGREE WELL ON TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE. LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN EASTERN OREGON...THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE COOL...5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SLOW CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS ARE DRY AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
GFS SOLUTION IS QUICKER TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS OR ECM ENSEMBLE MEANS NOR PREFERRED BY HPC.
THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER ECM GUIDANCE FOR
SUN/MON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...JT
PREV LONG TERM....DG



000
FXUS66 KPDT 301542
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
844 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION HOWEVER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION TODAY. NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE CASCADES AND BLUES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY CLEAR NOW BUT EXPECT SOME
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST WINDS IN THE GORGE AND
KITTITAS VALLEY. DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WINDS TONIGHT WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES. SOME LOCATIONS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 109 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING BROUGHT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
CWA. THESE HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT TO LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FURTHER TODAY. WINDS IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15Z-00Z TODAY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY
AS A RESULT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING TIMES OF MAXIMUM
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX AND DUE TO
NIGHT TIME STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN CENTRAL OREGON (MADRAS...REDMOND AND BEND) ARE ALL EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING THERE
FOR TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. ON
WEDNESDAY COOL TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. 88

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD COVER BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON SATURDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE AND PERHAPS PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. ANY
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 78

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY EXPECT SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AT
4-6 KFT WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KPDT AND KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z THIS
EVENING. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65  39  66  40 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  66  42  66  44 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  71  39  69  41 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  66  35  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  69  37  68  40 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  62  39  63  38 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  61  27  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  58  35  62  36 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  58  29  63  34 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  67  43  68  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94





000
FXUS66 KPDT 301542
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
844 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION HOWEVER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION TODAY. NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE CASCADES AND BLUES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY CLEAR NOW BUT EXPECT SOME
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST WINDS IN THE GORGE AND
KITTITAS VALLEY. DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WINDS TONIGHT WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES. SOME LOCATIONS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 109 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING BROUGHT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
CWA. THESE HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT TO LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FURTHER TODAY. WINDS IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15Z-00Z TODAY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY
AS A RESULT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING TIMES OF MAXIMUM
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX AND DUE TO
NIGHT TIME STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN CENTRAL OREGON (MADRAS...REDMOND AND BEND) ARE ALL EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING THERE
FOR TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. ON
WEDNESDAY COOL TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. 88

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD COVER BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON SATURDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE AND PERHAPS PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. ANY
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 78

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY EXPECT SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AT
4-6 KFT WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KPDT AND KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z THIS
EVENING. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65  39  66  40 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  66  42  66  44 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  71  39  69  41 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  66  35  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  69  37  68  40 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  62  39  63  38 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  61  27  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  58  35  62  36 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  58  29  63  34 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  67  43  68  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94





000
FXUS66 KPDT 301542
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
844 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION HOWEVER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION TODAY. NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE CASCADES AND BLUES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY CLEAR NOW BUT EXPECT SOME
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST WINDS IN THE GORGE AND
KITTITAS VALLEY. DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WINDS TONIGHT WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES. SOME LOCATIONS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 109 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING BROUGHT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
CWA. THESE HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT TO LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FURTHER TODAY. WINDS IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15Z-00Z TODAY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY
AS A RESULT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING TIMES OF MAXIMUM
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX AND DUE TO
NIGHT TIME STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN CENTRAL OREGON (MADRAS...REDMOND AND BEND) ARE ALL EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING THERE
FOR TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. ON
WEDNESDAY COOL TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. 88

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD COVER BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON SATURDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE AND PERHAPS PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. ANY
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 78

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY EXPECT SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AT
4-6 KFT WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KPDT AND KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z THIS
EVENING. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65  39  66  40 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  66  42  66  44 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  71  39  69  41 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  66  35  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  69  37  68  40 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  62  39  63  38 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  61  27  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  58  35  62  36 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  58  29  63  34 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  67  43  68  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94





000
FXUS66 KPDT 301542
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
844 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION HOWEVER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION TODAY. NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE CASCADES AND BLUES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY CLEAR NOW BUT EXPECT SOME
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST WINDS IN THE GORGE AND
KITTITAS VALLEY. DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WINDS TONIGHT WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES. SOME LOCATIONS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 109 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING BROUGHT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
CWA. THESE HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT TO LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FURTHER TODAY. WINDS IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15Z-00Z TODAY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY
AS A RESULT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING TIMES OF MAXIMUM
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX AND DUE TO
NIGHT TIME STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN CENTRAL OREGON (MADRAS...REDMOND AND BEND) ARE ALL EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING THERE
FOR TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. ON
WEDNESDAY COOL TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. 88

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD COVER BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON SATURDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE AND PERHAPS PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. ANY
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 78

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY EXPECT SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AT
4-6 KFT WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KPDT AND KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z THIS
EVENING. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65  39  66  40 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  66  42  66  44 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  71  39  69  41 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  66  35  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  69  37  68  40 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  62  39  63  38 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  61  27  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  58  35  62  36 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  58  29  63  34 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  67  43  68  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94





000
FXUS66 KMFR 301001
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
301 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING AND
BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO MANY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. THERE WASN`T A LOT OF RAINFALL, GENERALLY TWO-TENTHS OF
AN INCH OR LESS...BUT THE FRONT DID MANAGE TO BRING A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS TO THE MEDFORD AIRPORT RAIN GAUGE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADES AND THE NORTH COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE SHOULD THIN OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN ALOFT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA AND COAST MAY HOLD ONTO
SOME CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, IT WILL BE COOL BY LATE
SEPTEMBER STANDARDS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND 70 DEGREES
OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND NO BETTER THAN THE LOW 60S OVER
THE EAST SIDE.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE CASCADES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS
IN THE COLDEST SPOTS NEAR KLAMATH MARSH WITH READINGS DOWN NEAR OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN KLAMATH FALLS, LAKEVIEW AND ALTURAS. AS A
RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS, DETAILS
OF WHICH CAN BE VIEWED AT NPWMFR. IN ADDITION, IT WILL GET QUITE
COLD IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. SOME LOCATIONS LIKE WEED AND MONTAGUE
MAY HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND A FROST ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT THERE. WEST OF THE CASCADES, IT WILL BE COOL IN THE
ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS, BUT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A FEW OUTLYING AREAS MAY REACH THE
MID 30S LIKE NEAR CAVE JUNCTION AND THE APPLEGATE, BUT PROBABLY
NOT LONG ENOUGH FOR FROST IMPACTS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FIRMLY OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE WEST
SIDE VALLEYS WITH GENERALLY MID 60S EAST SIDE. WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING EXPECT A BIT OF A CHETCO EFFECT WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S NEAR BROOKINGS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS POSSIBLE. A CLEAR SKY AND CALM WINDS WILL
MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESULT IN A VERY STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE
VERY SIMILAR TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...WHILE SURROUNDING HILLS AND RIDGES WILL BE COMPARATIVELY
MILDER. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
IN THE VALLEYS, BUT SLIGHTLY UPWARD FOR THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT TO BE ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING
THIS TIME. THE GFS FLATTENS THE RIDGE A BIT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE SCOOTS ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA, WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THIS FEATURE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR
WEATHER. OVERALL, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WE`LL HAVE PERSISTENT
WARM, DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN MEDFORD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
KLAMATH FALLS. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE. COAST AND
INLAND TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING...EXCEPT FOR
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE UMPQUA BASIN UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 PM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. ON FRIDAY
THE HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT PASSING TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH SOME. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.

$$

MAS/CC/FJB







000
FXUS66 KMFR 301001
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
301 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING AND
BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO MANY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. THERE WASN`T A LOT OF RAINFALL, GENERALLY TWO-TENTHS OF
AN INCH OR LESS...BUT THE FRONT DID MANAGE TO BRING A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS TO THE MEDFORD AIRPORT RAIN GAUGE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADES AND THE NORTH COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE SHOULD THIN OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN ALOFT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA AND COAST MAY HOLD ONTO
SOME CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, IT WILL BE COOL BY LATE
SEPTEMBER STANDARDS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND 70 DEGREES
OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND NO BETTER THAN THE LOW 60S OVER
THE EAST SIDE.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE CASCADES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS
IN THE COLDEST SPOTS NEAR KLAMATH MARSH WITH READINGS DOWN NEAR OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN KLAMATH FALLS, LAKEVIEW AND ALTURAS. AS A
RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS, DETAILS
OF WHICH CAN BE VIEWED AT NPWMFR. IN ADDITION, IT WILL GET QUITE
COLD IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. SOME LOCATIONS LIKE WEED AND MONTAGUE
MAY HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND A FROST ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT THERE. WEST OF THE CASCADES, IT WILL BE COOL IN THE
ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS, BUT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A FEW OUTLYING AREAS MAY REACH THE
MID 30S LIKE NEAR CAVE JUNCTION AND THE APPLEGATE, BUT PROBABLY
NOT LONG ENOUGH FOR FROST IMPACTS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FIRMLY OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE WEST
SIDE VALLEYS WITH GENERALLY MID 60S EAST SIDE. WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING EXPECT A BIT OF A CHETCO EFFECT WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S NEAR BROOKINGS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS POSSIBLE. A CLEAR SKY AND CALM WINDS WILL
MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESULT IN A VERY STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE
VERY SIMILAR TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...WHILE SURROUNDING HILLS AND RIDGES WILL BE COMPARATIVELY
MILDER. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
IN THE VALLEYS, BUT SLIGHTLY UPWARD FOR THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT TO BE ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING
THIS TIME. THE GFS FLATTENS THE RIDGE A BIT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE SCOOTS ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA, WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THIS FEATURE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR
WEATHER. OVERALL, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WE`LL HAVE PERSISTENT
WARM, DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN MEDFORD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
KLAMATH FALLS. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE. COAST AND
INLAND TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING...EXCEPT FOR
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE UMPQUA BASIN UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 PM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. ON FRIDAY
THE HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT PASSING TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH SOME. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.

$$

MAS/CC/FJB







000
FXUS66 KMFR 301001
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
301 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING AND
BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO MANY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. THERE WASN`T A LOT OF RAINFALL, GENERALLY TWO-TENTHS OF
AN INCH OR LESS...BUT THE FRONT DID MANAGE TO BRING A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS TO THE MEDFORD AIRPORT RAIN GAUGE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADES AND THE NORTH COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE SHOULD THIN OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN ALOFT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA AND COAST MAY HOLD ONTO
SOME CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, IT WILL BE COOL BY LATE
SEPTEMBER STANDARDS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND 70 DEGREES
OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND NO BETTER THAN THE LOW 60S OVER
THE EAST SIDE.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE CASCADES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS
IN THE COLDEST SPOTS NEAR KLAMATH MARSH WITH READINGS DOWN NEAR OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN KLAMATH FALLS, LAKEVIEW AND ALTURAS. AS A
RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS, DETAILS
OF WHICH CAN BE VIEWED AT NPWMFR. IN ADDITION, IT WILL GET QUITE
COLD IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. SOME LOCATIONS LIKE WEED AND MONTAGUE
MAY HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND A FROST ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT THERE. WEST OF THE CASCADES, IT WILL BE COOL IN THE
ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS, BUT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A FEW OUTLYING AREAS MAY REACH THE
MID 30S LIKE NEAR CAVE JUNCTION AND THE APPLEGATE, BUT PROBABLY
NOT LONG ENOUGH FOR FROST IMPACTS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FIRMLY OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE WEST
SIDE VALLEYS WITH GENERALLY MID 60S EAST SIDE. WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING EXPECT A BIT OF A CHETCO EFFECT WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S NEAR BROOKINGS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS POSSIBLE. A CLEAR SKY AND CALM WINDS WILL
MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESULT IN A VERY STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE
VERY SIMILAR TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...WHILE SURROUNDING HILLS AND RIDGES WILL BE COMPARATIVELY
MILDER. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
IN THE VALLEYS, BUT SLIGHTLY UPWARD FOR THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT TO BE ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING
THIS TIME. THE GFS FLATTENS THE RIDGE A BIT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE SCOOTS ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA, WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THIS FEATURE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR
WEATHER. OVERALL, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WE`LL HAVE PERSISTENT
WARM, DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN MEDFORD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
KLAMATH FALLS. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE. COAST AND
INLAND TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING...EXCEPT FOR
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE UMPQUA BASIN UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 PM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. ON FRIDAY
THE HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT PASSING TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH SOME. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.

$$

MAS/CC/FJB







000
FXUS66 KMFR 301001
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
301 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING AND
BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO MANY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. THERE WASN`T A LOT OF RAINFALL, GENERALLY TWO-TENTHS OF
AN INCH OR LESS...BUT THE FRONT DID MANAGE TO BRING A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS TO THE MEDFORD AIRPORT RAIN GAUGE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADES AND THE NORTH COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE SHOULD THIN OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN ALOFT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA AND COAST MAY HOLD ONTO
SOME CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, IT WILL BE COOL BY LATE
SEPTEMBER STANDARDS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND 70 DEGREES
OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND NO BETTER THAN THE LOW 60S OVER
THE EAST SIDE.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE CASCADES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS
IN THE COLDEST SPOTS NEAR KLAMATH MARSH WITH READINGS DOWN NEAR OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN KLAMATH FALLS, LAKEVIEW AND ALTURAS. AS A
RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS, DETAILS
OF WHICH CAN BE VIEWED AT NPWMFR. IN ADDITION, IT WILL GET QUITE
COLD IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. SOME LOCATIONS LIKE WEED AND MONTAGUE
MAY HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND A FROST ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT THERE. WEST OF THE CASCADES, IT WILL BE COOL IN THE
ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS, BUT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A FEW OUTLYING AREAS MAY REACH THE
MID 30S LIKE NEAR CAVE JUNCTION AND THE APPLEGATE, BUT PROBABLY
NOT LONG ENOUGH FOR FROST IMPACTS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FIRMLY OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE WEST
SIDE VALLEYS WITH GENERALLY MID 60S EAST SIDE. WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING EXPECT A BIT OF A CHETCO EFFECT WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S NEAR BROOKINGS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS POSSIBLE. A CLEAR SKY AND CALM WINDS WILL
MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESULT IN A VERY STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE
VERY SIMILAR TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...WHILE SURROUNDING HILLS AND RIDGES WILL BE COMPARATIVELY
MILDER. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
IN THE VALLEYS, BUT SLIGHTLY UPWARD FOR THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT TO BE ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING
THIS TIME. THE GFS FLATTENS THE RIDGE A BIT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE SCOOTS ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA, WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THIS FEATURE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR
WEATHER. OVERALL, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WE`LL HAVE PERSISTENT
WARM, DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN MEDFORD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
KLAMATH FALLS. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE. COAST AND
INLAND TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING...EXCEPT FOR
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE UMPQUA BASIN UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 PM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. ON FRIDAY
THE HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT PASSING TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH SOME. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.

$$

MAS/CC/FJB







000
FXUS66 KPQR 300932
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER THE PACIFIC NW
WILL KEEP A COOL SHOWERY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD IN OFF THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND WED...AND LAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.
&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE IN
OFF THE PACIFIC OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN A NW
FLOW. MESOWEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WERE OVER THE UPWIND SIDE OF THE TERRAIN...WITH
A BIT OF A RAIN SHADOW EFFECT TO THE LEE SIDE. WATER VAPOR PICTURES
SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE CASCADES THIS MORNING MOVING
E. A SECONDARY TROUGH COMING DOWN THE BC COAST THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A
THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TODAY...BUT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONTINUING OVER THE UPWIND SLOPES. MODELS INDICATE THE NW FLOW
WEAKENING TONIGHT. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHRINK THE LOW LEVEL UNSTABLE LAYER FROM
THE TOP DOWN TONIGHT...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING AN END TO ANY THREAT OF
SHOWERS BY WED MORNING. COOL TEMPS WILL REMAIN AS THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS TODAY AND AFTERNOON H8 TEMPS DROP AS LOW AS 6 DEG C.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO WA AND OREGON WED AND THU
TURN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW NORTHERLY DRYING THE AIR MASS. THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE E PACIFIC THOUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SOME AS IT SHIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT ANY THREAT FOR WARM
FRONTAL TYPE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE RESTRICTED N OF THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOME WED AND THU AS H8 TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO
AROUND 12 DEG C.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. NOT MUCH
CHANCE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FCST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH FLAT
RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW. THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEPING
CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS OUR FCST AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT APPEARS
LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT RAIN TO BRUSH THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FCST
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...VARIABLE VFR CIGS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE
CASCADES. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE AND ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CREATE BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...ANY AREAS WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND CALM WINDS MAY
DEVELOP SHALLOW RADIATION FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AS UPPER LOW PRES SLIDES INLAND...EXPECT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CALMING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES...BETTER CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TUE NIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS GENERALLY ABOVE 4000
FT WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT TIMES. ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING 12Z-17Z THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...SHOWERS
CONTINUE MOVING ONSHORE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT VFR WITH
PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE NE PAC TODAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST THU BRINGING A RETURN TO NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
WATERS. A THERMAL LOW PRES MAY BUILD INTO THE S OREGON COAST BY
WED OR THU TO INCREASE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...BUT
EXPECT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 7-8
FT THROUGH WED...BEFORE EASING LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER W SWELL
WILL RETURN SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT AT THE END OF THE WEEK. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 300932
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER THE PACIFIC NW
WILL KEEP A COOL SHOWERY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD IN OFF THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND WED...AND LAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.
&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE IN
OFF THE PACIFIC OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN A NW
FLOW. MESOWEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WERE OVER THE UPWIND SIDE OF THE TERRAIN...WITH
A BIT OF A RAIN SHADOW EFFECT TO THE LEE SIDE. WATER VAPOR PICTURES
SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE CASCADES THIS MORNING MOVING
E. A SECONDARY TROUGH COMING DOWN THE BC COAST THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A
THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TODAY...BUT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONTINUING OVER THE UPWIND SLOPES. MODELS INDICATE THE NW FLOW
WEAKENING TONIGHT. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHRINK THE LOW LEVEL UNSTABLE LAYER FROM
THE TOP DOWN TONIGHT...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING AN END TO ANY THREAT OF
SHOWERS BY WED MORNING. COOL TEMPS WILL REMAIN AS THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS TODAY AND AFTERNOON H8 TEMPS DROP AS LOW AS 6 DEG C.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO WA AND OREGON WED AND THU
TURN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW NORTHERLY DRYING THE AIR MASS. THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE E PACIFIC THOUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SOME AS IT SHIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT ANY THREAT FOR WARM
FRONTAL TYPE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE RESTRICTED N OF THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOME WED AND THU AS H8 TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO
AROUND 12 DEG C.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. NOT MUCH
CHANCE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FCST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH FLAT
RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW. THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEPING
CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS OUR FCST AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT APPEARS
LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT RAIN TO BRUSH THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FCST
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...VARIABLE VFR CIGS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE
CASCADES. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE AND ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CREATE BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...ANY AREAS WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND CALM WINDS MAY
DEVELOP SHALLOW RADIATION FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AS UPPER LOW PRES SLIDES INLAND...EXPECT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CALMING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES...BETTER CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TUE NIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS GENERALLY ABOVE 4000
FT WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT TIMES. ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING 12Z-17Z THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...SHOWERS
CONTINUE MOVING ONSHORE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT VFR WITH
PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE NE PAC TODAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST THU BRINGING A RETURN TO NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
WATERS. A THERMAL LOW PRES MAY BUILD INTO THE S OREGON COAST BY
WED OR THU TO INCREASE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...BUT
EXPECT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 7-8
FT THROUGH WED...BEFORE EASING LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER W SWELL
WILL RETURN SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT AT THE END OF THE WEEK. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&



000
FXUS65 KBOI 300913
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
313 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING OUR CWA THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE B.C. COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE THIS MORNING...
DECREASING TO ISOLATED IN THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...15 TO 25 MPH EAST
OF BOISE THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...REPLACED
BY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. MODELS AGREE WELL ON TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE. LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN EASTERN OREGON...THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE COOL...5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SLOW CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS ARE DRY AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
GFS SOLUTION IS QUICKER TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS OR ECM ENSEMBLE MEANS NOR PREFERRED BY HPC.
THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER ECM GUIDANCE FOR
SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
ACROSS E-CENTRAL OREGON AND SW IDAHO. WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MTN VALLEYS THE LAST TO CLEAR. VFR MOVING
FORWARD FROM TODAY...THOUGH PATCHY MTN VALLEY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY
FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM AND AVIATION....DG



000
FXUS65 KBOI 300913
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
313 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING OUR CWA THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE B.C. COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE THIS MORNING...
DECREASING TO ISOLATED IN THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...15 TO 25 MPH EAST
OF BOISE THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...REPLACED
BY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. MODELS AGREE WELL ON TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE. LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN EASTERN OREGON...THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE COOL...5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SLOW CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS ARE DRY AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
GFS SOLUTION IS QUICKER TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS OR ECM ENSEMBLE MEANS NOR PREFERRED BY HPC.
THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER ECM GUIDANCE FOR
SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
ACROSS E-CENTRAL OREGON AND SW IDAHO. WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MTN VALLEYS THE LAST TO CLEAR. VFR MOVING
FORWARD FROM TODAY...THOUGH PATCHY MTN VALLEY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY
FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM AND AVIATION....DG



000
FXUS65 KBOI 300913
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
313 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING OUR CWA THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE B.C. COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE THIS MORNING...
DECREASING TO ISOLATED IN THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...15 TO 25 MPH EAST
OF BOISE THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...REPLACED
BY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. MODELS AGREE WELL ON TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE. LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN EASTERN OREGON...THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE COOL...5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SLOW CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS ARE DRY AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
GFS SOLUTION IS QUICKER TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS OR ECM ENSEMBLE MEANS NOR PREFERRED BY HPC.
THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER ECM GUIDANCE FOR
SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
ACROSS E-CENTRAL OREGON AND SW IDAHO. WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MTN VALLEYS THE LAST TO CLEAR. VFR MOVING
FORWARD FROM TODAY...THOUGH PATCHY MTN VALLEY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY
FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM AND AVIATION....DG



000
FXUS65 KBOI 300913
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
313 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING OUR CWA THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE B.C. COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE THIS MORNING...
DECREASING TO ISOLATED IN THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...15 TO 25 MPH EAST
OF BOISE THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...REPLACED
BY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. MODELS AGREE WELL ON TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE. LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN EASTERN OREGON...THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE COOL...5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SLOW CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS ARE DRY AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
GFS SOLUTION IS QUICKER TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS OR ECM ENSEMBLE MEANS NOR PREFERRED BY HPC.
THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER ECM GUIDANCE FOR
SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
ACROSS E-CENTRAL OREGON AND SW IDAHO. WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MTN VALLEYS THE LAST TO CLEAR. VFR MOVING
FORWARD FROM TODAY...THOUGH PATCHY MTN VALLEY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY
FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM AND AVIATION....DG



000
FXUS66 KPDT 300822 CCA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
109 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CORRECTED TIMING OF FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT IN THE HIGHLIGHTS
SECTION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING BROUGHT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
CWA. THESE HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT TO LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FURTHER TODAY. WINDS IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15Z-00Z TODAY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY
AS A RESULT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING TIMES OF MAXIMUM
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX AND DUE TO
NIGHT TIME STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN CENTRAL OREGON (MADRAS...REDMOND AND BEND) ARE ALL EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING THERE
FOR TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. ON
WEDNESDAY COOL TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. 88

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD COVER BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON SATURDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE AND PERHAPS PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. ANY
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY EXPECT SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AT
4-6 KFT WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KPDT AND KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z THIS
EVENING. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  64  38  66  40 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  65  41  66  44 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  69  38  69  41 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  66  34  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  68  36  68  40 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  61  38  63  38 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  60  26  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  57  34  62  36 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  57  28  63  34 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  65  42  68  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/78/78






000
FXUS66 KPDT 300822 CCA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
109 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CORRECTED TIMING OF FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT IN THE HIGHLIGHTS
SECTION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING BROUGHT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
CWA. THESE HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT TO LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FURTHER TODAY. WINDS IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15Z-00Z TODAY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY
AS A RESULT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING TIMES OF MAXIMUM
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX AND DUE TO
NIGHT TIME STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN CENTRAL OREGON (MADRAS...REDMOND AND BEND) ARE ALL EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING THERE
FOR TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. ON
WEDNESDAY COOL TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. 88

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD COVER BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON SATURDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE AND PERHAPS PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. ANY
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY EXPECT SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AT
4-6 KFT WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KPDT AND KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z THIS
EVENING. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  64  38  66  40 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  65  41  66  44 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  69  38  69  41 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  66  34  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  68  36  68  40 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  61  38  63  38 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  60  26  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  57  34  62  36 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  57  28  63  34 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  65  42  68  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/78/78







000
FXUS66 KPDT 300809
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
109 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING BROUGHT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
CWA. THESE HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT TO LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FURTHER TODAY. WINDS IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15Z-00Z TODAY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY
AS A RESULT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING TIMES OF MAXIMUM
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX AND DUE TO
NIGHT TIME STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN CENTRAL OREGON (MADRAS...REDMOND AND BEND) ARE ALL EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING THERE
FOR TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. ON
WEDNESDAY COOL TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. 88

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD COVER BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON SATURDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE AND PERHAPS PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. ANY
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY EXPECT SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AT
4-6 KFT WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KPDT AND KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z THIS
EVENING. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  64  38  66  40 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  65  41  66  44 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  69  38  69  41 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  66  34  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  68  36  68  40 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  61  38  63  38 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  60  26  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  57  34  62  36 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  57  28  63  34 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  65  42  68  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/78/78








000
FXUS66 KPDT 300809
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
109 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING BROUGHT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
CWA. THESE HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT TO LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FURTHER TODAY. WINDS IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15Z-00Z TODAY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY
AS A RESULT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING TIMES OF MAXIMUM
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX AND DUE TO
NIGHT TIME STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN CENTRAL OREGON (MADRAS...REDMOND AND BEND) ARE ALL EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING THERE
FOR TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. ON
WEDNESDAY COOL TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. 88

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD COVER BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON SATURDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE AND PERHAPS PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. ANY
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY EXPECT SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AT
4-6 KFT WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KPDT AND KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z THIS
EVENING. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  64  38  66  40 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  65  41  66  44 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  69  38  69  41 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  66  34  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  68  36  68  40 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  61  38  63  38 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  60  26  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  57  34  62  36 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  57  28  63  34 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  65  42  68  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/78/78









000
FXUS66 KPDT 300542 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1042 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION IS CURRENTLY OVER WALLOWA COUNTY. THIS FRONT WILL
BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY 9 PM PDT. WINDS INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND THE OREGON
LOWER BASIN. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WAS A PROBLEM NEAR PENDLETON FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS RAN BETWEEN 25 AND 30
MPH SUSTAINED AT THAT TIME. MOISTURE TRAILING THE COLD FRONT HAS
CREATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT NOW RUN FROM THE
WASHINGTON LOWER BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS SOUTH TO GRANT
AND EASTERN WHEELER COUNTIES IN OREGON. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
EAST AND EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT, THE WEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD KEEP A FEW
SLOP OVER SHOWERS GOING NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, AND SOME UPSLOPE
INDUCED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. UPDATES THIS
EVENING FOCUSED ON ADJUSTING POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SKY COVER. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE AREA FAIR AND DRY THURSDAY
NIGHT. ON FRIDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL CRASH INTO THE RIDGE AND COME
ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. IT WILL ALSO DRIVE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
OUR AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL HANG UP ON
CASCADES AND DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MODELS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES AS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER OUR
AREA WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE RIDGE BACK OFF SHORE WITH US ON THE
EASTERN EDGE. BOTH KEEP A STREAM OF MOISTURE IN A WESTERLY FLOW JUST
TO OUR NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE COMPROMISED ON TEMPERATURES BY
LOWERING THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. COOL, MOIST AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR KALW AND KPDT EARLY IN THIS PERIOD,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST OF THESE FIELDS. CIGS,
WHERE THEY OCCUR, WILL MOSTLY BE BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FT AGL
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS AT KBDN ARE EXPECTED MOVE IN AND OUT
DURING THE FIRST 3 HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL MAINLY RUN BETWEEN 10 AND
20 KTS SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS AT KPDT
AND KDLS. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  66  41  67 /  30  10  10   0
ALW  53  67  44  67 /  30  10  10   0
PSC  50  72  41  70 /  30  10   0   0
YKM  45  67  37  67 /  20  10   0   0
HRI  51  70  39  69 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  49  64  41  65 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  37  62  29  65 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  45  60  37  63 /  30  20  10   0
GCD  41  60  31  65 /  20  20  10   0
DLS  54  68  45  69 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/90








000
FXUS66 KPDT 300542 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1042 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION IS CURRENTLY OVER WALLOWA COUNTY. THIS FRONT WILL
BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY 9 PM PDT. WINDS INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND THE OREGON
LOWER BASIN. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WAS A PROBLEM NEAR PENDLETON FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS RAN BETWEEN 25 AND 30
MPH SUSTAINED AT THAT TIME. MOISTURE TRAILING THE COLD FRONT HAS
CREATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT NOW RUN FROM THE
WASHINGTON LOWER BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS SOUTH TO GRANT
AND EASTERN WHEELER COUNTIES IN OREGON. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
EAST AND EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT, THE WEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD KEEP A FEW
SLOP OVER SHOWERS GOING NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, AND SOME UPSLOPE
INDUCED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. UPDATES THIS
EVENING FOCUSED ON ADJUSTING POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SKY COVER. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE AREA FAIR AND DRY THURSDAY
NIGHT. ON FRIDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL CRASH INTO THE RIDGE AND COME
ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. IT WILL ALSO DRIVE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
OUR AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL HANG UP ON
CASCADES AND DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MODELS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES AS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER OUR
AREA WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE RIDGE BACK OFF SHORE WITH US ON THE
EASTERN EDGE. BOTH KEEP A STREAM OF MOISTURE IN A WESTERLY FLOW JUST
TO OUR NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE COMPROMISED ON TEMPERATURES BY
LOWERING THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. COOL, MOIST AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR KALW AND KPDT EARLY IN THIS PERIOD,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST OF THESE FIELDS. CIGS,
WHERE THEY OCCUR, WILL MOSTLY BE BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FT AGL
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS AT KBDN ARE EXPECTED MOVE IN AND OUT
DURING THE FIRST 3 HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL MAINLY RUN BETWEEN 10 AND
20 KTS SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS AT KPDT
AND KDLS. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  66  41  67 /  30  10  10   0
ALW  53  67  44  67 /  30  10  10   0
PSC  50  72  41  70 /  30  10   0   0
YKM  45  67  37  67 /  20  10   0   0
HRI  51  70  39  69 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  49  64  41  65 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  37  62  29  65 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  45  60  37  63 /  30  20  10   0
GCD  41  60  31  65 /  20  20  10   0
DLS  54  68  45  69 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/90








000
FXUS66 KPDT 300542 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1042 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION IS CURRENTLY OVER WALLOWA COUNTY. THIS FRONT WILL
BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY 9 PM PDT. WINDS INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND THE OREGON
LOWER BASIN. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WAS A PROBLEM NEAR PENDLETON FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS RAN BETWEEN 25 AND 30
MPH SUSTAINED AT THAT TIME. MOISTURE TRAILING THE COLD FRONT HAS
CREATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT NOW RUN FROM THE
WASHINGTON LOWER BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS SOUTH TO GRANT
AND EASTERN WHEELER COUNTIES IN OREGON. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
EAST AND EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT, THE WEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD KEEP A FEW
SLOP OVER SHOWERS GOING NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, AND SOME UPSLOPE
INDUCED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. UPDATES THIS
EVENING FOCUSED ON ADJUSTING POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SKY COVER. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE AREA FAIR AND DRY THURSDAY
NIGHT. ON FRIDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL CRASH INTO THE RIDGE AND COME
ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. IT WILL ALSO DRIVE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
OUR AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL HANG UP ON
CASCADES AND DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MODELS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES AS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER OUR
AREA WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE RIDGE BACK OFF SHORE WITH US ON THE
EASTERN EDGE. BOTH KEEP A STREAM OF MOISTURE IN A WESTERLY FLOW JUST
TO OUR NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE COMPROMISED ON TEMPERATURES BY
LOWERING THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. COOL, MOIST AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR KALW AND KPDT EARLY IN THIS PERIOD,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST OF THESE FIELDS. CIGS,
WHERE THEY OCCUR, WILL MOSTLY BE BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FT AGL
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS AT KBDN ARE EXPECTED MOVE IN AND OUT
DURING THE FIRST 3 HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL MAINLY RUN BETWEEN 10 AND
20 KTS SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS AT KPDT
AND KDLS. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  66  41  67 /  30  10  10   0
ALW  53  67  44  67 /  30  10  10   0
PSC  50  72  41  70 /  30  10   0   0
YKM  45  67  37  67 /  20  10   0   0
HRI  51  70  39  69 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  49  64  41  65 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  37  62  29  65 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  45  60  37  63 /  30  20  10   0
GCD  41  60  31  65 /  20  20  10   0
DLS  54  68  45  69 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/90








000
FXUS66 KPDT 300542 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1042 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION IS CURRENTLY OVER WALLOWA COUNTY. THIS FRONT WILL
BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY 9 PM PDT. WINDS INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND THE OREGON
LOWER BASIN. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WAS A PROBLEM NEAR PENDLETON FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS RAN BETWEEN 25 AND 30
MPH SUSTAINED AT THAT TIME. MOISTURE TRAILING THE COLD FRONT HAS
CREATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT NOW RUN FROM THE
WASHINGTON LOWER BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS SOUTH TO GRANT
AND EASTERN WHEELER COUNTIES IN OREGON. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
EAST AND EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT, THE WEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD KEEP A FEW
SLOP OVER SHOWERS GOING NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, AND SOME UPSLOPE
INDUCED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. UPDATES THIS
EVENING FOCUSED ON ADJUSTING POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SKY COVER. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE AREA FAIR AND DRY THURSDAY
NIGHT. ON FRIDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL CRASH INTO THE RIDGE AND COME
ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. IT WILL ALSO DRIVE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
OUR AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL HANG UP ON
CASCADES AND DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MODELS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES AS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER OUR
AREA WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE RIDGE BACK OFF SHORE WITH US ON THE
EASTERN EDGE. BOTH KEEP A STREAM OF MOISTURE IN A WESTERLY FLOW JUST
TO OUR NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE COMPROMISED ON TEMPERATURES BY
LOWERING THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. COOL, MOIST AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR KALW AND KPDT EARLY IN THIS PERIOD,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST OF THESE FIELDS. CIGS,
WHERE THEY OCCUR, WILL MOSTLY BE BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FT AGL
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS AT KBDN ARE EXPECTED MOVE IN AND OUT
DURING THE FIRST 3 HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL MAINLY RUN BETWEEN 10 AND
20 KTS SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS AT KPDT
AND KDLS. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  66  41  67 /  30  10  10   0
ALW  53  67  44  67 /  30  10  10   0
PSC  50  72  41  70 /  30  10   0   0
YKM  45  67  37  67 /  20  10   0   0
HRI  51  70  39  69 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  49  64  41  65 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  37  62  29  65 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  45  60  37  63 /  30  20  10   0
GCD  41  60  31  65 /  20  20  10   0
DLS  54  68  45  69 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/90








000
FXUS66 KPDT 300353
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
853 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION IS CURRENTLY OVER WALLOWA COUNTY. THIS FRONT WILL
BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY 9 PM PDT. WINDS INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND THE OREGON
LOWER BASIN. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WAS A PROBLEM NEAR PENDLETON FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS RAN BETWEEN 25 AND 30
MPH SUSTAINED AT THAT TIME. MOISTURE TRAILING THE COLD FRONT HAS
CREATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT NOW RUN FROM THE
WASHINGTON LOWER BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS SOUTH TO GRANT
AND EASTERN WHEELER COUNTIES IN OREGON. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
EAST AND EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT, THE WEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD KEEP A FEW
SLOP OVER SHOWERS GOING NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, AND SOME UPSLOPE
INDUCED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. UPDATES THIS
EVENING FOCUSED ON ADJUSTING POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SKY COVER. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE AREA FAIR AND DRY THURSDAY
NIGHT. ON FRIDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL CRASH INTO THE RIDGE AND COME
ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. IT WILL ALSO DRIVE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
OUR AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL HANG UP ON
CASCADES AND DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MODELS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES AS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER OUR
AREA WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE RIDGE BACK OFF SHORE WITH US ON THE
EASTERN EDGE. BOTH KEEP A STREAM OF MOISTURE IN A WESTERLY FLOW JUST
TO OUR NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE COMPROMISED ON TEMPERATURES BY
LOWERING THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GIVE WAY TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT AT ALL
TAF SITES AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALW AND PERHAPS KPDT FROM
02Z-09Z THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR TOMORROW MORNING
AFTER 12Z BUT WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 18Z. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN 5 TO 15 KTS
OVERNIGHT. KDLS AND KPDT WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS TOMORROW AFTER 18Z WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  66  41  67 /  30  10  10   0
ALW  53  67  44  67 /  30  10  10   0
PSC  50  72  41  70 /  30  10   0   0
YKM  45  67  37  67 /  20  10   0   0
HRI  51  70  39  69 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  49  64  41  65 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  37  62  29  65 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  45  60  37  63 /  30  20  10   0
GCD  41  60  31  65 /  20  20  10   0
DLS  54  68  45  69 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/90








000
FXUS66 KPDT 300353
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
853 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION IS CURRENTLY OVER WALLOWA COUNTY. THIS FRONT WILL
BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY 9 PM PDT. WINDS INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND THE OREGON
LOWER BASIN. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WAS A PROBLEM NEAR PENDLETON FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS RAN BETWEEN 25 AND 30
MPH SUSTAINED AT THAT TIME. MOISTURE TRAILING THE COLD FRONT HAS
CREATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT NOW RUN FROM THE
WASHINGTON LOWER BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS SOUTH TO GRANT
AND EASTERN WHEELER COUNTIES IN OREGON. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
EAST AND EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT, THE WEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD KEEP A FEW
SLOP OVER SHOWERS GOING NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, AND SOME UPSLOPE
INDUCED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. UPDATES THIS
EVENING FOCUSED ON ADJUSTING POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SKY COVER. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE AREA FAIR AND DRY THURSDAY
NIGHT. ON FRIDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL CRASH INTO THE RIDGE AND COME
ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. IT WILL ALSO DRIVE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
OUR AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL HANG UP ON
CASCADES AND DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MODELS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES AS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER OUR
AREA WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE RIDGE BACK OFF SHORE WITH US ON THE
EASTERN EDGE. BOTH KEEP A STREAM OF MOISTURE IN A WESTERLY FLOW JUST
TO OUR NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE COMPROMISED ON TEMPERATURES BY
LOWERING THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GIVE WAY TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT AT ALL
TAF SITES AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALW AND PERHAPS KPDT FROM
02Z-09Z THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR TOMORROW MORNING
AFTER 12Z BUT WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 18Z. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN 5 TO 15 KTS
OVERNIGHT. KDLS AND KPDT WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS TOMORROW AFTER 18Z WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  66  41  67 /  30  10  10   0
ALW  53  67  44  67 /  30  10  10   0
PSC  50  72  41  70 /  30  10   0   0
YKM  45  67  37  67 /  20  10   0   0
HRI  51  70  39  69 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  49  64  41  65 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  37  62  29  65 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  45  60  37  63 /  30  20  10   0
GCD  41  60  31  65 /  20  20  10   0
DLS  54  68  45  69 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/90









000
FXUS66 KMFR 300340
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
840 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES AND
STRETCHES FROM BURNS SOUTHWEST THROUGH LAKEVIEW. BOTH COOS AND
DOUGLAS COUNTIES REPORTED MEASURABLE RAIN EARLIER THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY. HAVE UPDATED TO FORECAST TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND EXPAND SHOWERS AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
TONIGHT DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BUT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE FROST/FREEZE RANGE EAST OF THE CASCADES. /FB


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH RAIN ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE AND ONTO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONTO THE EAST SIDE. MVFR AND IFR
ALONG THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH
ISOLATED LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. FURTHER INLAND, IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY, MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD TO BECOME NEAR TOTAL THIS
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING PARTIAL AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ON THE EAST SIDE
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, BUT VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. ON TUESDAY MVFR ON
THE WEST SIDE WILL BREAK UP LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 PM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS AND
SEAS TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST. ON FRIDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN
AS A COLD FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AND
SEAS TO DIMINISH SOME. /FB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON, PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EATS INTO THE CASCADES THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT, BUT OTHER
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY DUE TO THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND THE SYSTEM ITSELF LACKING A DEEP
CONNECTION TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT SOME COULD LINGER
IN THE UMPQUA AND THE CASCADES INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL NOT PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE, THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE, WITH SOME
OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON LIKELY TO OCCUR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT, THERE ARE MANY LOCATIONS ON
THE EAST SIDE THAT COULD DROP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, ESPECIALLY
AS THE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND RADIATIVE COOLING SHOULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS THAT LOOK
THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD FROST OR A FREEZE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TEMPERATURES THAT THE AREAS WILL
DROP TO, BUT FEEL THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
TOO WARM THAN TOO COLD. WITH INCREASING CERTAINTY AND ANOTHER PAIR
OF EYES ON THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE, CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE,
AND THE WATCH CAN THEN BE UPGRADED TO THE NECESSARY FROST AND/OR
FREEZE HEADLINES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, THERE IS NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF OTHER
THAN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS, DESPITE THEIR
CONTINUING INCONSISTENCIES IN THE LONG TERM, REMAIN FIRMLY
CONVINCED IN THE GENERAL PATTERN: THAT OF A LARGE BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE REGION BEGINNING MIDWEEK AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY COMING TO A CONSENSUS CONCERNING SOME
FEATURES WITHIN THE WESTERLIES UPSTREAM, AND THIS IS LEADING TO
THE INCREASED DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN RUNS. KEEPING THIS IN MIND, A
STRAY SHORTWAVE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH THE
RETURN OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AND OFFSHORE FLOW, AND SUCH A LARGE
RIDGE OVERHEAD, A SMALLER WEAKER FEATURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT HEADWAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES AT ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
DURATION. -BPN

AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH RAIN ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE AND ONTO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONTO THE EAST SIDE. MVFR AND IFR
ALONG THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH
ISOLATED LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. FURTHER INLAND, IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY, MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD TO BECOME NEAR TOTAL THIS
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING PARTIAL AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ON THE EAST SIDE
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, BUT VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. ON TUESDAY MVFR ON
THE WEST SIDE WILL BREAK UP LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 3PM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY. THESE NORTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL STEEPEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER OR NOT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY. ON
FRIDAY A FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN CANADA IS LIKELY TO PUSH THE
OFFSHORE HIGH A BIT FURTHER EAST CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO
DIMINISH SOME BEFORE LIKELY INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11
     AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11
     PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.

$$

FJB/FJB/BTL






000
FXUS66 KPQR 300340
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
833 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...USHERING A COOL SHOWERY AIR MASS. THE SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUE.  NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BRING THE FIRST DUSTING OF SNOW TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI
RESORT ELEVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL
FEEL LIKE AUTUMN WITH CHILLY NIGHTS AND CRISP AFTERNOONS...WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT...BUT THE
RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER TODAY IS NOW
EAST OF THE CASCADES. MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER THE
CASCADES WHERE MODERATE OROGRAPHICS IS MAINTAINING RAIN RATES AROUND
0.05 TO 0.10 INCH PER HOUR.  INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP SHOW LOWER
CLOUDS OVER THE NE PACIFIC THAT WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA TONIGHT FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS ACTIVITY.  THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS SHOULD ESCAPE THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AS SOME RAIN SHADOWING IS LIKELY IN THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW BELOW 850 MB.

LOWERING SNOW LEVELS...MODEL 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES AND
SOUNDING TEMPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FT OVER THE S WA AND N OR CASCADES BY TOMORROW
MORNING.

EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH MOST SPOTS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVES TO OUR NORTH AND THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO ANTICYCLONIC BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR SOME LOW LYING SPOTS WITH THE FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WED
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT THE TREND DEFINITELY
APPEARS TO BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM JUST A BIT WED AS WEAK SUBSIDE BEGINS TO OCCUR...BUT DAYTIME
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE. THEN EXPECT THE
COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR WED NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS POINT...AND WITH NOT MUCH WIND EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CREATING NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WE
INCREASED LOW TEMPS JUST A BIT WITH THE LATEST FCST...BUT STILL HAVE
MANY OUTLYING VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING TO NEAR 40 DEG F. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE A LIGHT FROST. ALSO
EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THU MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS MODELED TO MOVE OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST
ON THU. THIS MAY ALLOW A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
BUILD ALONG THE S OR COAST...WHICH WOULD CREATE A NORTHERLY OR EVEN
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR FCST AREA. EXPECT THU TO BE A SUNNY
AND PLEASANT DAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. PYLE/MH

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...NOT MUCH CHANCE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FCST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH FLAT RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW.
THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS
OUR FCST AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...A
SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO BRUSH THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL CALM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT SHALLOW RADIATION FOG TO RESULT IN
SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF KMMV.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...SEAS FLIRTED WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SOUTH OF
NEWPORT OREGON THIS EVENING AS BUOY 50 HAD ONE OBSERVATIONS WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OF 9.5 FEET. A NW SWELL BETWEEN 6 AND 8
FEET
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TUESDAY AND HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RETURN OF NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
     11 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 300340
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
833 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...USHERING A COOL SHOWERY AIR MASS. THE SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUE.  NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BRING THE FIRST DUSTING OF SNOW TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI
RESORT ELEVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL
FEEL LIKE AUTUMN WITH CHILLY NIGHTS AND CRISP AFTERNOONS...WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT...BUT THE
RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER TODAY IS NOW
EAST OF THE CASCADES. MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER THE
CASCADES WHERE MODERATE OROGRAPHICS IS MAINTAINING RAIN RATES AROUND
0.05 TO 0.10 INCH PER HOUR.  INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP SHOW LOWER
CLOUDS OVER THE NE PACIFIC THAT WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA TONIGHT FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS ACTIVITY.  THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS SHOULD ESCAPE THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AS SOME RAIN SHADOWING IS LIKELY IN THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW BELOW 850 MB.

LOWERING SNOW LEVELS...MODEL 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES AND
SOUNDING TEMPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FT OVER THE S WA AND N OR CASCADES BY TOMORROW
MORNING.

EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH MOST SPOTS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVES TO OUR NORTH AND THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO ANTICYCLONIC BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR SOME LOW LYING SPOTS WITH THE FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WED
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT THE TREND DEFINITELY
APPEARS TO BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM JUST A BIT WED AS WEAK SUBSIDE BEGINS TO OCCUR...BUT DAYTIME
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE. THEN EXPECT THE
COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR WED NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS POINT...AND WITH NOT MUCH WIND EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CREATING NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WE
INCREASED LOW TEMPS JUST A BIT WITH THE LATEST FCST...BUT STILL HAVE
MANY OUTLYING VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING TO NEAR 40 DEG F. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE A LIGHT FROST. ALSO
EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THU MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS MODELED TO MOVE OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST
ON THU. THIS MAY ALLOW A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
BUILD ALONG THE S OR COAST...WHICH WOULD CREATE A NORTHERLY OR EVEN
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR FCST AREA. EXPECT THU TO BE A SUNNY
AND PLEASANT DAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. PYLE/MH

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...NOT MUCH CHANCE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FCST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH FLAT RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW.
THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS
OUR FCST AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...A
SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO BRUSH THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL CALM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT SHALLOW RADIATION FOG TO RESULT IN
SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF KMMV.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...SEAS FLIRTED WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SOUTH OF
NEWPORT OREGON THIS EVENING AS BUOY 50 HAD ONE OBSERVATIONS WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OF 9.5 FEET. A NW SWELL BETWEEN 6 AND 8
FEET
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TUESDAY AND HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RETURN OF NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
     11 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 300340
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
833 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...USHERING A COOL SHOWERY AIR MASS. THE SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUE.  NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BRING THE FIRST DUSTING OF SNOW TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI
RESORT ELEVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL
FEEL LIKE AUTUMN WITH CHILLY NIGHTS AND CRISP AFTERNOONS...WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT...BUT THE
RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER TODAY IS NOW
EAST OF THE CASCADES. MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER THE
CASCADES WHERE MODERATE OROGRAPHICS IS MAINTAINING RAIN RATES AROUND
0.05 TO 0.10 INCH PER HOUR.  INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP SHOW LOWER
CLOUDS OVER THE NE PACIFIC THAT WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA TONIGHT FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS ACTIVITY.  THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS SHOULD ESCAPE THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AS SOME RAIN SHADOWING IS LIKELY IN THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW BELOW 850 MB.

LOWERING SNOW LEVELS...MODEL 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES AND
SOUNDING TEMPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FT OVER THE S WA AND N OR CASCADES BY TOMORROW
MORNING.

EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH MOST SPOTS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVES TO OUR NORTH AND THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO ANTICYCLONIC BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR SOME LOW LYING SPOTS WITH THE FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WED
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT THE TREND DEFINITELY
APPEARS TO BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM JUST A BIT WED AS WEAK SUBSIDE BEGINS TO OCCUR...BUT DAYTIME
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE. THEN EXPECT THE
COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR WED NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS POINT...AND WITH NOT MUCH WIND EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CREATING NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WE
INCREASED LOW TEMPS JUST A BIT WITH THE LATEST FCST...BUT STILL HAVE
MANY OUTLYING VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING TO NEAR 40 DEG F. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE A LIGHT FROST. ALSO
EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THU MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS MODELED TO MOVE OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST
ON THU. THIS MAY ALLOW A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
BUILD ALONG THE S OR COAST...WHICH WOULD CREATE A NORTHERLY OR EVEN
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR FCST AREA. EXPECT THU TO BE A SUNNY
AND PLEASANT DAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. PYLE/MH

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...NOT MUCH CHANCE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FCST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH FLAT RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW.
THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS
OUR FCST AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...A
SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO BRUSH THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL CALM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT SHALLOW RADIATION FOG TO RESULT IN
SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF KMMV.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...SEAS FLIRTED WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SOUTH OF
NEWPORT OREGON THIS EVENING AS BUOY 50 HAD ONE OBSERVATIONS WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OF 9.5 FEET. A NW SWELL BETWEEN 6 AND 8
FEET
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TUESDAY AND HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RETURN OF NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
     11 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 300340
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
833 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...USHERING A COOL SHOWERY AIR MASS. THE SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUE.  NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BRING THE FIRST DUSTING OF SNOW TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI
RESORT ELEVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL
FEEL LIKE AUTUMN WITH CHILLY NIGHTS AND CRISP AFTERNOONS...WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT...BUT THE
RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER TODAY IS NOW
EAST OF THE CASCADES. MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER THE
CASCADES WHERE MODERATE OROGRAPHICS IS MAINTAINING RAIN RATES AROUND
0.05 TO 0.10 INCH PER HOUR.  INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP SHOW LOWER
CLOUDS OVER THE NE PACIFIC THAT WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA TONIGHT FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS ACTIVITY.  THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS SHOULD ESCAPE THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AS SOME RAIN SHADOWING IS LIKELY IN THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW BELOW 850 MB.

LOWERING SNOW LEVELS...MODEL 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES AND
SOUNDING TEMPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FT OVER THE S WA AND N OR CASCADES BY TOMORROW
MORNING.

EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH MOST SPOTS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVES TO OUR NORTH AND THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO ANTICYCLONIC BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR SOME LOW LYING SPOTS WITH THE FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WED
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT THE TREND DEFINITELY
APPEARS TO BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM JUST A BIT WED AS WEAK SUBSIDE BEGINS TO OCCUR...BUT DAYTIME
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE. THEN EXPECT THE
COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR WED NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS POINT...AND WITH NOT MUCH WIND EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CREATING NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WE
INCREASED LOW TEMPS JUST A BIT WITH THE LATEST FCST...BUT STILL HAVE
MANY OUTLYING VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING TO NEAR 40 DEG F. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE A LIGHT FROST. ALSO
EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THU MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS MODELED TO MOVE OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST
ON THU. THIS MAY ALLOW A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
BUILD ALONG THE S OR COAST...WHICH WOULD CREATE A NORTHERLY OR EVEN
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR FCST AREA. EXPECT THU TO BE A SUNNY
AND PLEASANT DAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. PYLE/MH

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...NOT MUCH CHANCE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FCST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH FLAT RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW.
THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS
OUR FCST AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...A
SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO BRUSH THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL CALM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT SHALLOW RADIATION FOG TO RESULT IN
SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF KMMV.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...SEAS FLIRTED WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SOUTH OF
NEWPORT OREGON THIS EVENING AS BUOY 50 HAD ONE OBSERVATIONS WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OF 9.5 FEET. A NW SWELL BETWEEN 6 AND 8
FEET
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TUESDAY AND HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RETURN OF NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
     11 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KMFR 300340
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
840 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES AND
STRETCHES FROM BURNS SOUTHWEST THROUGH LAKEVIEW. BOTH COOS AND
DOUGLAS COUNTIES REPORTED MEASURABLE RAIN EARLIER THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY. HAVE UPDATED TO FORECAST TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND EXPAND SHOWERS AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
TONIGHT DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BUT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE FROST/FREEZE RANGE EAST OF THE CASCADES. /FB


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH RAIN ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE AND ONTO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONTO THE EAST SIDE. MVFR AND IFR
ALONG THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH
ISOLATED LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. FURTHER INLAND, IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY, MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD TO BECOME NEAR TOTAL THIS
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING PARTIAL AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ON THE EAST SIDE
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, BUT VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. ON TUESDAY MVFR ON
THE WEST SIDE WILL BREAK UP LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 PM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS AND
SEAS TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST. ON FRIDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN
AS A COLD FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AND
SEAS TO DIMINISH SOME. /FB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON, PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EATS INTO THE CASCADES THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT, BUT OTHER
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY DUE TO THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND THE SYSTEM ITSELF LACKING A DEEP
CONNECTION TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT SOME COULD LINGER
IN THE UMPQUA AND THE CASCADES INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL NOT PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE, THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE, WITH SOME
OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON LIKELY TO OCCUR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT, THERE ARE MANY LOCATIONS ON
THE EAST SIDE THAT COULD DROP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, ESPECIALLY
AS THE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND RADIATIVE COOLING SHOULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS THAT LOOK
THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD FROST OR A FREEZE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TEMPERATURES THAT THE AREAS WILL
DROP TO, BUT FEEL THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
TOO WARM THAN TOO COLD. WITH INCREASING CERTAINTY AND ANOTHER PAIR
OF EYES ON THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE, CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE,
AND THE WATCH CAN THEN BE UPGRADED TO THE NECESSARY FROST AND/OR
FREEZE HEADLINES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, THERE IS NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF OTHER
THAN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS, DESPITE THEIR
CONTINUING INCONSISTENCIES IN THE LONG TERM, REMAIN FIRMLY
CONVINCED IN THE GENERAL PATTERN: THAT OF A LARGE BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE REGION BEGINNING MIDWEEK AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY COMING TO A CONSENSUS CONCERNING SOME
FEATURES WITHIN THE WESTERLIES UPSTREAM, AND THIS IS LEADING TO
THE INCREASED DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN RUNS. KEEPING THIS IN MIND, A
STRAY SHORTWAVE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH THE
RETURN OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AND OFFSHORE FLOW, AND SUCH A LARGE
RIDGE OVERHEAD, A SMALLER WEAKER FEATURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT HEADWAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES AT ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
DURATION. -BPN

AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH RAIN ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE AND ONTO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONTO THE EAST SIDE. MVFR AND IFR
ALONG THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH
ISOLATED LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. FURTHER INLAND, IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY, MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD TO BECOME NEAR TOTAL THIS
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING PARTIAL AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ON THE EAST SIDE
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, BUT VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. ON TUESDAY MVFR ON
THE WEST SIDE WILL BREAK UP LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 3PM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY. THESE NORTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL STEEPEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER OR NOT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY. ON
FRIDAY A FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN CANADA IS LIKELY TO PUSH THE
OFFSHORE HIGH A BIT FURTHER EAST CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO
DIMINISH SOME BEFORE LIKELY INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11
     AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11
     PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.

$$

FJB/FJB/BTL







000
FXUS65 KBOI 300253
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
853 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...AREA RADARS AND SATIMGS SHOWED A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING THROUGHOUT IDAHO FROM AROUND WARM LAKE
THROUGH EAST OWYHEE COUNTY. HRRR AND TRENDS INDICATE THE ZONE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT BANNER SUMMIT BY MIDNIGHT. WHILE IT IS HOLDING
TOGETHER FOR NOW IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE MAGIC
VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS OREGON WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT AND MOSTLY AFTER
9 AM FOR SW IDAHO. WINDS COULD FLIRT WITH ADVY SPEEDS FOR THE
MAGIC VALLEY TUESDAY. TRANSIENT DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE
OREGON TUESDAY NIGHT AND SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING ALONG WITH VERY MOIST SOILS FROM THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS OF RAIN SO AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY WHERE WINDS DROP OFF TO
LIGHT 5 MPH OR LESS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD LOW VFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KMYL TO
KMOU THROUGH 06Z...IMPROVING AFTERWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS BAKER
COUNTY AND SW IDAHO...EXCEPT NUMEROUS SHOWERS KMYL AREA. ISOLATED
MFVR CEILINGS... ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT SHOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. FRONT WILL
REACH KBKE AND KBNO AROUND 12Z THEN KBOI AROUND 15Z AND KTWF
AROUND 17Z. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KTS FROM KBOI TO KTWF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NW WINDS
ALOFT TO 30 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT HELPED BRING SO MUCH RAIN TO THE REGION THE PAST TWO DAYS
WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE IT/S PLACE AND MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND
CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ON TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING NW WINDS WILL GUST 20-30 MPH IN MOST AREAS...AND 30-40 MPH
IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE COOL...WITH HIGHS
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT TUE NIGHT
AND ADDITIONAL COOL AIR WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE AREA ON CONTINUED
NW FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WED WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF TUE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT OWING TO
STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER. TUE NIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER LIGHTER
WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE FROM
THE WEST COAST WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
BEGINNING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE AREA BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY
BUT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....TL
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 300253
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
853 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...AREA RADARS AND SATIMGS SHOWED A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING THROUGHOUT IDAHO FROM AROUND WARM LAKE
THROUGH EAST OWYHEE COUNTY. HRRR AND TRENDS INDICATE THE ZONE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT BANNER SUMMIT BY MIDNIGHT. WHILE IT IS HOLDING
TOGETHER FOR NOW IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE MAGIC
VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS OREGON WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT AND MOSTLY AFTER
9 AM FOR SW IDAHO. WINDS COULD FLIRT WITH ADVY SPEEDS FOR THE
MAGIC VALLEY TUESDAY. TRANSIENT DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE
OREGON TUESDAY NIGHT AND SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING ALONG WITH VERY MOIST SOILS FROM THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS OF RAIN SO AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY WHERE WINDS DROP OFF TO
LIGHT 5 MPH OR LESS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD LOW VFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KMYL TO
KMOU THROUGH 06Z...IMPROVING AFTERWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS BAKER
COUNTY AND SW IDAHO...EXCEPT NUMEROUS SHOWERS KMYL AREA. ISOLATED
MFVR CEILINGS... ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT SHOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. FRONT WILL
REACH KBKE AND KBNO AROUND 12Z THEN KBOI AROUND 15Z AND KTWF
AROUND 17Z. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KTS FROM KBOI TO KTWF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NW WINDS
ALOFT TO 30 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT HELPED BRING SO MUCH RAIN TO THE REGION THE PAST TWO DAYS
WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE IT/S PLACE AND MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND
CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ON TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING NW WINDS WILL GUST 20-30 MPH IN MOST AREAS...AND 30-40 MPH
IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE COOL...WITH HIGHS
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT TUE NIGHT
AND ADDITIONAL COOL AIR WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE AREA ON CONTINUED
NW FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WED WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF TUE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT OWING TO
STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER. TUE NIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER LIGHTER
WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE FROM
THE WEST COAST WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
BEGINNING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE AREA BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY
BUT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....TL
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS/AB



000
FXUS66 KMFR 292337
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
437 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON, PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EATS INTO THE CASCADES THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT, BUT OTHER
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY DUE TO THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND THE SYSTEM ITSELF LACKING A DEEP
CONNECTION TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT SOME COULD LINGER
IN THE UMPQUA AND THE CASCADES INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL NOT PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE, THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE, WITH SOME
OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON LIKELY TO OCCUR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT, THERE ARE MANY LOCATIONS ON
THE EAST SIDE THAT COULD DROP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, ESPECIALLY
AS THE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND RADIATIVE COOLING SHOULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS THAT LOOK
THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD FROST OR A FREEZE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TEMPERATURES THAT THE AREAS WILL
DROP TO, BUT FEEL THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
TOO WARM THAN TOO COLD. WITH INCREASING CERTAINTY AND ANOTHER PAIR
OF EYES ON THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE, CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE,
AND THE WATCH CAN THEN BE UPGRADED TO THE NECESSARY FROST AND/OR
FREEZE HEADLINES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, THERE IS NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF OTHER
THAN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS, DESPITE THEIR
CONTINUING INCONSISTENCIES IN THE LONG TERM, REMAIN FIRMLY
CONVINCED IN THE GENERAL PATTERN: THAT OF A LARGE BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE REGION BEGINNING MIDWEEK AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY COMING TO A CONSENSUS CONCERNING SOME
FEATURES WITHIN THE WESTERLIES UPSTREAM, AND THIS IS LEADING TO
THE INCREASED DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN RUNS. KEEPING THIS IN MIND, A
STRAY SHORTWAVE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH THE
RETURN OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AND OFFSHORE FLOW, AND SUCH A LARGE
RIDGE OVERHEAD, A SMALLER WEAKER FEATURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT HEADWAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES AT ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
DURATION. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH RAIN ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE AND ONTO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONTO THE EAST SIDE. MVFR AND IFR
ALONG THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH
ISOLATED LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. FURTHER INLAND, IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY, MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD TO BECOME NEAR TOTAL THIS
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING PARTIAL AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ON THE EAST SIDE
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, BUT VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. ON TUESDAY MVFR ON
THE WEST SIDE WILL BREAK UP LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3PM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY. THESE NORTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL STEEPEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER OR NOT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY. ON
FRIDAY A FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN CANADA IS LIKELY TO PUSH THE
OFFSHORE HIGH A BIT FURTHER EAST CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO
DIMINISH SOME BEFORE LIKELY INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ029>031.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
     TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO
     11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.

$$

BPN/BTL









000
FXUS66 KPQR 292152
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
253 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A BAND OF STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...MOST PROLIFIC IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRING THE FIRST DUSTING
OF SNOW TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE AUTUMN WITH CHILLY NIGHTS
AND CRISP AFTERNOONS...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.
MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
MOST OF THE DISTRICT...BUT THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE BAND OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BROUGHT
AROUND 0.1 TO 0.25 INCH OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE COAST AND COAST RANGE
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STEADIER RAIN IS
NOW PUSHING INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND EXPECT MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO PICK UP ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH BY THE TIME THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CASCADES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FAST MOVING FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A SHOWERY AND MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. THERE IS WELL DEFINED CLEARING APPARENT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT FURTHER OFFSHORE THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THAT THERE
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...THE FCST MODELS ARE DEPICTING DECENT 850MB NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. MODEL 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES AND SOUNDING TEMPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FT OVER THE S WA AND N OR
CASCADES BY TOMORROW MORNING.

EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH MOST SPOTS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVES TO OUR NORTH AND THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO ANTICYCLONIC BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR SOME LOW LYING SPOTS WITH THE FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WED
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT THE TREND DEFINITELY
APPEARS TO BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM JUST A BIT WED AS WEAK SUBSIDE BEGINS TO OCCUR...BUT DAYTIME
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE. THEN EXPECT THE
COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR WED NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS POINT...AND WITH NOT MUCH WIND EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CREATING NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WE
INCREASED LOW TEMPS JUST A BIT WITH THE LATEST FCST...BUT STILL HAVE
MANY OUTLYING VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING TO NEAR 40 DEG F. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE A LIGHT FROST. ALSO
EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THU MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS MODELED TO MOVE OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST
ON THU. THIS MAY ALLOW A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
BUILD ALONG THE S OR COAST...WHICH WOULD CREATE A NORTHERLY OR EVEN
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR FCST AREA. EXPECT THU TO BE A SUNNY
AND PLEASANT DAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. PYLE

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...NOT MUCH CHANCE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FCST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH FLAT RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW.
THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS
OUR FCST AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...A
SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO BRUSH THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...SOME MVFR VIS AND/OR CIGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS STILL GENERALLY SOUTH
AROUND
10 KT INLAND AND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...I.E. NEWPORT AS FAR AS TAF TERMINALS ARE CONCERNED. EXPECT
DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL BRING MARINE
AIR INLAND WITH LOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING.
BACK SIDE OF THE CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL CLEAR THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IFR CLOUDS MAY
VERY WELL REMAIN OR FORM SOON THEREAFTER. IN THE END...NOT SURE
THERE WILL BE MUCH IF ANY CLEARING AT THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND CIGS AROUND 4000 FT WITH SOME
TEMPO MVFR CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE 2000 FT. CLEARING SKIES BY AROUND
06Z TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR MVFR INCREASE AFTER 12Z TUE WITH CIGS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 1500 FT IF THEY DEVELOP. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...LATEST OB AT BUOY 89 SHOWS NW WINDS...INDICATING THE
FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH THERE BUT NOT YET TO THE BUOYS CLOSER TO
SHORE WHICH ARE STILL SHOWING SOUTH WINDS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
TREK ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH A MINOR COASTAL JET IN FRONT OF
IT GUSTING TO ABOUT 20 KT NEAR SHORE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 25 KT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND THE JET
SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. WEST SWELL
INCREASING TODAY TO ABOUT 7 FT WITH PERIOD AROUND 11 TO 13
SECONDS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 7 TO 8 FT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MODELS BEGINNING TO
BRING IN BIGGER SWELL EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
11 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 292152
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
253 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A BAND OF STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...MOST PROLIFIC IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRING THE FIRST DUSTING
OF SNOW TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE AUTUMN WITH CHILLY NIGHTS
AND CRISP AFTERNOONS...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.
MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
MOST OF THE DISTRICT...BUT THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE BAND OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BROUGHT
AROUND 0.1 TO 0.25 INCH OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE COAST AND COAST RANGE
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STEADIER RAIN IS
NOW PUSHING INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND EXPECT MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO PICK UP ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH BY THE TIME THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CASCADES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FAST MOVING FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A SHOWERY AND MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. THERE IS WELL DEFINED CLEARING APPARENT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT FURTHER OFFSHORE THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THAT THERE
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...THE FCST MODELS ARE DEPICTING DECENT 850MB NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. MODEL 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES AND SOUNDING TEMPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FT OVER THE S WA AND N OR
CASCADES BY TOMORROW MORNING.

EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH MOST SPOTS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVES TO OUR NORTH AND THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO ANTICYCLONIC BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR SOME LOW LYING SPOTS WITH THE FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WED
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT THE TREND DEFINITELY
APPEARS TO BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM JUST A BIT WED AS WEAK SUBSIDE BEGINS TO OCCUR...BUT DAYTIME
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE. THEN EXPECT THE
COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR WED NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS POINT...AND WITH NOT MUCH WIND EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CREATING NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WE
INCREASED LOW TEMPS JUST A BIT WITH THE LATEST FCST...BUT STILL HAVE
MANY OUTLYING VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING TO NEAR 40 DEG F. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE A LIGHT FROST. ALSO
EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THU MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS MODELED TO MOVE OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST
ON THU. THIS MAY ALLOW A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
BUILD ALONG THE S OR COAST...WHICH WOULD CREATE A NORTHERLY OR EVEN
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR FCST AREA. EXPECT THU TO BE A SUNNY
AND PLEASANT DAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. PYLE

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...NOT MUCH CHANCE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FCST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH FLAT RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW.
THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS
OUR FCST AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...A
SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO BRUSH THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...SOME MVFR VIS AND/OR CIGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS STILL GENERALLY SOUTH
AROUND
10 KT INLAND AND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...I.E. NEWPORT AS FAR AS TAF TERMINALS ARE CONCERNED. EXPECT
DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL BRING MARINE
AIR INLAND WITH LOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING.
BACK SIDE OF THE CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL CLEAR THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IFR CLOUDS MAY
VERY WELL REMAIN OR FORM SOON THEREAFTER. IN THE END...NOT SURE
THERE WILL BE MUCH IF ANY CLEARING AT THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND CIGS AROUND 4000 FT WITH SOME
TEMPO MVFR CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE 2000 FT. CLEARING SKIES BY AROUND
06Z TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR MVFR INCREASE AFTER 12Z TUE WITH CIGS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 1500 FT IF THEY DEVELOP. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...LATEST OB AT BUOY 89 SHOWS NW WINDS...INDICATING THE
FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH THERE BUT NOT YET TO THE BUOYS CLOSER TO
SHORE WHICH ARE STILL SHOWING SOUTH WINDS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
TREK ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH A MINOR COASTAL JET IN FRONT OF
IT GUSTING TO ABOUT 20 KT NEAR SHORE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 25 KT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND THE JET
SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. WEST SWELL
INCREASING TODAY TO ABOUT 7 FT WITH PERIOD AROUND 11 TO 13
SECONDS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 7 TO 8 FT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MODELS BEGINNING TO
BRING IN BIGGER SWELL EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
11 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 292152
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
253 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A BAND OF STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...MOST PROLIFIC IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRING THE FIRST DUSTING
OF SNOW TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE AUTUMN WITH CHILLY NIGHTS
AND CRISP AFTERNOONS...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.
MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
MOST OF THE DISTRICT...BUT THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE BAND OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BROUGHT
AROUND 0.1 TO 0.25 INCH OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE COAST AND COAST RANGE
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STEADIER RAIN IS
NOW PUSHING INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND EXPECT MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO PICK UP ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH BY THE TIME THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CASCADES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FAST MOVING FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A SHOWERY AND MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. THERE IS WELL DEFINED CLEARING APPARENT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT FURTHER OFFSHORE THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THAT THERE
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...THE FCST MODELS ARE DEPICTING DECENT 850MB NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. MODEL 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES AND SOUNDING TEMPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FT OVER THE S WA AND N OR
CASCADES BY TOMORROW MORNING.

EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH MOST SPOTS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVES TO OUR NORTH AND THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO ANTICYCLONIC BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR SOME LOW LYING SPOTS WITH THE FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WED
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT THE TREND DEFINITELY
APPEARS TO BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM JUST A BIT WED AS WEAK SUBSIDE BEGINS TO OCCUR...BUT DAYTIME
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE. THEN EXPECT THE
COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR WED NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS POINT...AND WITH NOT MUCH WIND EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CREATING NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WE
INCREASED LOW TEMPS JUST A BIT WITH THE LATEST FCST...BUT STILL HAVE
MANY OUTLYING VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING TO NEAR 40 DEG F. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE A LIGHT FROST. ALSO
EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THU MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS MODELED TO MOVE OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST
ON THU. THIS MAY ALLOW A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
BUILD ALONG THE S OR COAST...WHICH WOULD CREATE A NORTHERLY OR EVEN
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR FCST AREA. EXPECT THU TO BE A SUNNY
AND PLEASANT DAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. PYLE

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...NOT MUCH CHANCE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FCST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH FLAT RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW.
THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS
OUR FCST AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...A
SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO BRUSH THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...SOME MVFR VIS AND/OR CIGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS STILL GENERALLY SOUTH
AROUND
10 KT INLAND AND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...I.E. NEWPORT AS FAR AS TAF TERMINALS ARE CONCERNED. EXPECT
DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL BRING MARINE
AIR INLAND WITH LOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING.
BACK SIDE OF THE CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL CLEAR THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IFR CLOUDS MAY
VERY WELL REMAIN OR FORM SOON THEREAFTER. IN THE END...NOT SURE
THERE WILL BE MUCH IF ANY CLEARING AT THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND CIGS AROUND 4000 FT WITH SOME
TEMPO MVFR CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE 2000 FT. CLEARING SKIES BY AROUND
06Z TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR MVFR INCREASE AFTER 12Z TUE WITH CIGS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 1500 FT IF THEY DEVELOP. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...LATEST OB AT BUOY 89 SHOWS NW WINDS...INDICATING THE
FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH THERE BUT NOT YET TO THE BUOYS CLOSER TO
SHORE WHICH ARE STILL SHOWING SOUTH WINDS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
TREK ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH A MINOR COASTAL JET IN FRONT OF
IT GUSTING TO ABOUT 20 KT NEAR SHORE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 25 KT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND THE JET
SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. WEST SWELL
INCREASING TODAY TO ABOUT 7 FT WITH PERIOD AROUND 11 TO 13
SECONDS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 7 TO 8 FT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MODELS BEGINNING TO
BRING IN BIGGER SWELL EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
11 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 292152
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
253 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A BAND OF STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...MOST PROLIFIC IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRING THE FIRST DUSTING
OF SNOW TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE AUTUMN WITH CHILLY NIGHTS
AND CRISP AFTERNOONS...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.
MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
MOST OF THE DISTRICT...BUT THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE BAND OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BROUGHT
AROUND 0.1 TO 0.25 INCH OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE COAST AND COAST RANGE
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STEADIER RAIN IS
NOW PUSHING INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND EXPECT MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO PICK UP ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH BY THE TIME THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CASCADES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FAST MOVING FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A SHOWERY AND MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. THERE IS WELL DEFINED CLEARING APPARENT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT FURTHER OFFSHORE THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THAT THERE
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...THE FCST MODELS ARE DEPICTING DECENT 850MB NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. MODEL 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES AND SOUNDING TEMPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FT OVER THE S WA AND N OR
CASCADES BY TOMORROW MORNING.

EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH MOST SPOTS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVES TO OUR NORTH AND THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO ANTICYCLONIC BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR SOME LOW LYING SPOTS WITH THE FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WED
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT THE TREND DEFINITELY
APPEARS TO BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM JUST A BIT WED AS WEAK SUBSIDE BEGINS TO OCCUR...BUT DAYTIME
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE. THEN EXPECT THE
COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR WED NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS POINT...AND WITH NOT MUCH WIND EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CREATING NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WE
INCREASED LOW TEMPS JUST A BIT WITH THE LATEST FCST...BUT STILL HAVE
MANY OUTLYING VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING TO NEAR 40 DEG F. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE A LIGHT FROST. ALSO
EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THU MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS MODELED TO MOVE OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST
ON THU. THIS MAY ALLOW A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
BUILD ALONG THE S OR COAST...WHICH WOULD CREATE A NORTHERLY OR EVEN
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR FCST AREA. EXPECT THU TO BE A SUNNY
AND PLEASANT DAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. PYLE

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...NOT MUCH CHANCE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FCST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH FLAT RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW.
THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS
OUR FCST AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...A
SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO BRUSH THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...SOME MVFR VIS AND/OR CIGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS STILL GENERALLY SOUTH
AROUND
10 KT INLAND AND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...I.E. NEWPORT AS FAR AS TAF TERMINALS ARE CONCERNED. EXPECT
DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL BRING MARINE
AIR INLAND WITH LOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING.
BACK SIDE OF THE CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL CLEAR THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IFR CLOUDS MAY
VERY WELL REMAIN OR FORM SOON THEREAFTER. IN THE END...NOT SURE
THERE WILL BE MUCH IF ANY CLEARING AT THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND CIGS AROUND 4000 FT WITH SOME
TEMPO MVFR CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE 2000 FT. CLEARING SKIES BY AROUND
06Z TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR MVFR INCREASE AFTER 12Z TUE WITH CIGS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 1500 FT IF THEY DEVELOP. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...LATEST OB AT BUOY 89 SHOWS NW WINDS...INDICATING THE
FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH THERE BUT NOT YET TO THE BUOYS CLOSER TO
SHORE WHICH ARE STILL SHOWING SOUTH WINDS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
TREK ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH A MINOR COASTAL JET IN FRONT OF
IT GUSTING TO ABOUT 20 KT NEAR SHORE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 25 KT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND THE JET
SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. WEST SWELL
INCREASING TODAY TO ABOUT 7 FT WITH PERIOD AROUND 11 TO 13
SECONDS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 7 TO 8 FT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MODELS BEGINNING TO
BRING IN BIGGER SWELL EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
11 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KMFR 292136
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
236 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON, PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EATS INTO THE CASCADES THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT, BUT OTHER
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY DUE TO THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND THE SYSTEM ITSELF LACKING A DEEP
CONNECTION TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT SOME COULD LINGER
IN THE UMPQUA AND THE CASCADES INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL NOT PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE, THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE, WITH SOME
OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON LIKELY TO OCCUR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT, THERE ARE MANY LOCATIONS ON
THE EAST SIDE THAT COULD DROP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, ESPECIALLY
AS THE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND RADIATIVE COOLING SHOULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS THAT LOOK
THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD FROST OR A FREEZE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TEMPERATURES THAT THE AREAS WILL
DROP TO, BUT FEEL THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
TOO WARM THAN TOO COLD. WITH INCREASING CERTAINTY AND ANOTHER PAIR
OF EYES ON THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE, CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE,
AND THE WATCH CAN THEN BE UPGRADED TO THE NECESSARY FROST AND/OR
FREEZE HEADLINES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, THERE IS NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF OTHER
THAN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS, DESPITE THEIR
CONTINUING INCONSISTENCIES IN THE LONG TERM, REMAIN FIRMLY
CONVINCED IN THE GENERAL PATTERN: THAT OF A LARGE BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE REGION BEGINNING MIDWEEK AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY COMING TO A CONSENSUS CONCERNING SOME
FEATURES WITHIN THE WESTERLIES UPSTREAM, AND THIS IS LEADING TO
THE INCREASED DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN RUNS. KEEPING THIS IN MIND, A
STRAY SHORTWAVE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH THE
RETURN OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AND OFFSHORE FLOW, AND SUCH A LARGE
RIDGE OVERHEAD, A SMALLER WEAKER FEATURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT HEADWAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES AT ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
DURATION. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/18Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE
WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN TONIGHT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
BECOMING OBSCURED. THOSE AREAS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. -JRS


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 AM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014...A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA
BUT SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COASTAL THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE AREA.
BOTH FEATURES WILL WEAKEN AFTER WEDNESDAY...SO WINDS AND SEAS WILL
MODERATE THEN. -JRS

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ029>031.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
     TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO
     11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.

$$

BPN/JRS/BTL






000
FXUS66 KMFR 292136
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
236 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON, PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EATS INTO THE CASCADES THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT, BUT OTHER
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY DUE TO THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND THE SYSTEM ITSELF LACKING A DEEP
CONNECTION TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT SOME COULD LINGER
IN THE UMPQUA AND THE CASCADES INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL NOT PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE, THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE, WITH SOME
OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON LIKELY TO OCCUR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT, THERE ARE MANY LOCATIONS ON
THE EAST SIDE THAT COULD DROP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, ESPECIALLY
AS THE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND RADIATIVE COOLING SHOULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS THAT LOOK
THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD FROST OR A FREEZE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TEMPERATURES THAT THE AREAS WILL
DROP TO, BUT FEEL THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
TOO WARM THAN TOO COLD. WITH INCREASING CERTAINTY AND ANOTHER PAIR
OF EYES ON THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE, CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE,
AND THE WATCH CAN THEN BE UPGRADED TO THE NECESSARY FROST AND/OR
FREEZE HEADLINES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, THERE IS NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF OTHER
THAN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS, DESPITE THEIR
CONTINUING INCONSISTENCIES IN THE LONG TERM, REMAIN FIRMLY
CONVINCED IN THE GENERAL PATTERN: THAT OF A LARGE BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE REGION BEGINNING MIDWEEK AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY COMING TO A CONSENSUS CONCERNING SOME
FEATURES WITHIN THE WESTERLIES UPSTREAM, AND THIS IS LEADING TO
THE INCREASED DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN RUNS. KEEPING THIS IN MIND, A
STRAY SHORTWAVE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH THE
RETURN OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AND OFFSHORE FLOW, AND SUCH A LARGE
RIDGE OVERHEAD, A SMALLER WEAKER FEATURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT HEADWAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES AT ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
DURATION. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/18Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE
WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN TONIGHT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
BECOMING OBSCURED. THOSE AREAS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. -JRS


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 AM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014...A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA
BUT SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COASTAL THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE AREA.
BOTH FEATURES WILL WEAKEN AFTER WEDNESDAY...SO WINDS AND SEAS WILL
MODERATE THEN. -JRS

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ029>031.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
     TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO
     11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.

$$

BPN/JRS/BTL







000
FXUS66 KPDT 292130
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT LOOKS RATHER
NARROW ON SATELLITE. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE CASCADES
AND BLUES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BECOMING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OFFSHORE WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY AND MAINLY CLEAR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR MANY LOCATIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS...WITH NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE 20S. HAVE ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS FOR NOW.  94

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE AREA FAIR AND
DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL CRASH INTO THE
RIDGE AND COME ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. MOST OF
THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. IT WILL ALSO
DRIVE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER OUR AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
DISTURBANCE WILL HANG UP ON CASCADES AND DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY BUT
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES AS THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER OUR AREA WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE RIDGE BACK
OFF SHORE WITH US ON THE EASTERN EDGE. BOTH KEEP A STREAM OF
MOISTURE IN A WESTERLY FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE
COMPROMISED ON TEMPERATURES BY LOWERING THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
FROM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY
TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES AS A
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALW AND PERHAPS KPDT FROM 02Z-09Z THIS
EVENING. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR TOMORROW MORNING AFTER 12Z BUT
WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 18Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REACH 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN 5 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT. KDLS
AND KPDT WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS TOMORROW AFTER 18Z WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS
AFTERNOON. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  66  41  67 /  20  10  10   0
ALW  53  67  44  67 /  20  10  10   0
PSC  49  72  41  70 /  20  10   0   0
YKM  43  67  37  67 /  20  10   0   0
HRI  50  70  39  69 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  48  64  41  65 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  37  62  29  65 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  45  60  37  63 /  30  20  10   0
GCD  41  60  31  65 /  30  10  10   0
DLS  54  68  45  69 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/83/83






000
FXUS65 KBOI 292044
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT HELPED BRING SO MUCH RAIN TO THE REGION THE PAST TWO DAYS
WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE IT/S PLACE AND MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND
CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ON TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING NW WINDS WILL GUST 20-30 MPH IN MOST AREAS...AND 30-40 MPH
IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE COOL...WITH HIGHS
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT TUE NIGHT
AND ADDITIONAL COOL AIR WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE AREA ON CONTINUED
NW FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WED WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF TUE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT OWING TO
STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER. TUE NIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER LIGHTER
WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE FROM
THE WEST COAST WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
BEGINNING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE AREA BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY
BUT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD LOW VFR CEILINGS AND ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS
WITH RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SE
OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE REMAINING AREAS OF SW IDAHO BY 00Z. EXPECT LOW-
VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE SHOWERS. WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CEILINGS ACROSS SE OREGON AFTER 00Z AND SW IDAHO BY 09Z. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT TO
SHELTERED VALLEYS. FRONT WILL REACH KBKE AND KBNO AROUND 12Z THEN
KBOI AROUND 15Z AND KTWF AROUND 17Z. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS FROM KBOI TO KTWF THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WITH SPEEDS TO 15 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
NW WINDS ALOFT TO 30 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/AB
AVIATION.....JS




000
FXUS66 KPDT 291733 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1033 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS IDAHO THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER UPPER LOW OVER
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SUNNY WITH SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS LATER TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. MUCH COOLER TOMORROW.  94

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. EXPECT MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT AT ALL
TAF SITES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
AT KALW AND PERHAPS KPDT FROM 02Z-09Z THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
PARTIALLY CLEAR AFTER 12Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN 5 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT. KDLS
AND KPDT WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
OVERNIGHT. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 134 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW INTO EASTERN OREGON. THIS IS A VERY SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW AND THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE EAST OF
THE CWA ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY LIGHT
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE INCREASING WINDS FROM THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREFORE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY SPEEDS...HOWEVER IT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN CASE CONDITIONS CHANGE SUCH THAT ADVISORY WINDS DO BECOME
LIKELY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH MAXIMUM READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF BY 6-8 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO VALUES BELOW NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY
WEDNESDAY. 88

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME MAINLY IN WASHINGTON ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...OTHERWISE EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY SUNDAY EVENING
ESPECIALLY CASCADE GAPS...OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  72  50  66  44 /  10  20  10  10
ALW  73  55  67  48 /  10  20  20  10
PSC  77  52  71  46 /   0  10  10   0
YKM  73  47  68  43 /   0  10   0   0
HRI  75  50  70  45 /   0  10  10   0
ELN  70  47  63  43 /   0  10  10   0
RDM  68  39  62  33 /   0  20   0   0
LGD  66  45  60  41 /  30  30  20  10
GCD  68  43  60  39 /  30  20  10  10
DLS  71  54  67  48 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/78/83






000
FXUS66 KPDT 291733 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1033 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS IDAHO THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER UPPER LOW OVER
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SUNNY WITH SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS LATER TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. MUCH COOLER TOMORROW.  94

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. EXPECT MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT AT ALL
TAF SITES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
AT KALW AND PERHAPS KPDT FROM 02Z-09Z THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
PARTIALLY CLEAR AFTER 12Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN 5 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT. KDLS
AND KPDT WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
OVERNIGHT. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 134 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW INTO EASTERN OREGON. THIS IS A VERY SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW AND THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE EAST OF
THE CWA ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY LIGHT
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE INCREASING WINDS FROM THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREFORE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY SPEEDS...HOWEVER IT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN CASE CONDITIONS CHANGE SUCH THAT ADVISORY WINDS DO BECOME
LIKELY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH MAXIMUM READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF BY 6-8 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO VALUES BELOW NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY
WEDNESDAY. 88

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME MAINLY IN WASHINGTON ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...OTHERWISE EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY SUNDAY EVENING
ESPECIALLY CASCADE GAPS...OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  72  50  66  44 /  10  20  10  10
ALW  73  55  67  48 /  10  20  20  10
PSC  77  52  71  46 /   0  10  10   0
YKM  73  47  68  43 /   0  10   0   0
HRI  75  50  70  45 /   0  10  10   0
ELN  70  47  63  43 /   0  10  10   0
RDM  68  39  62  33 /   0  20   0   0
LGD  66  45  60  41 /  30  30  20  10
GCD  68  43  60  39 /  30  20  10  10
DLS  71  54  67  48 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/78/83







000
FXUS66 KPQR 291646
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
944 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...MOST PROLIFIC IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRING THE FIRST DUSTING
OF SNOW TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE AUTUMN WITH CHILLY NIGHTS
AND CRISP AFTERNOONS...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.
MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
MOST OF THE DISTRICT...BUT THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO PUSH
ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST AS OF 16Z THIS MORNING.
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM KLGX LANGLEY HILL IS SHOWING ECHOES
EXTENDING FROM THE WILLAPA HILLS DOWN INTO THE FAR NORTHERN OREGON
COAST AND COAST RANGE. AT THIS POINT NONE OF THE OBSERVATION STATIONS
IN THIS REGION ARE SHOWING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL...BUT EXPECT WE
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND VERY SHORTLY. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE COAST AND COAST RANGE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THEN MOVE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE INTO THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AS THE FRONT DOES LOOK VERY
WELL ORGANIZED ON RADAR OR SATELLITE. THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE PATCHY AND SOMEWHAT SHOWERY
IN NATURE. IR SATELLITE DERIVED CLOUD TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST
CLOUD TOPS ALONG THE FRONT ARE ONLY REACHING 12-15 KFT...SO THE
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW. EXPECTED QPF WITH THE FRONT IS GENERALLY
0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES FOR THE COAST RANGE...AND ONLY SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
FOR MOST IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. PYLE

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
STRENGTHENING JET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...IT WILL BE A FAST MOVER AND
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE COLD ADVECTION
WHICH WILL BRING THE COOLEST AIR MASS SO FAR THIS SEASON. THE
RESULTING MOISTURE AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
SWING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS.

NAM RUNS REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT WITH 850 MB TEMPS +2 TO +4 DEG C BY
TUE MORNING. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE COOL ENOUGH TO BRING THE FIRST
DUSTING OF SNOW OF THE SEASON TO THE HIGHER SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS...
ABOVE 5500-6000 FT. TIMBERLINE LODGE WILL PROBABLY WAKE UP TO A
DUSTING OF SNOW TUE MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD MELT QUICKLY WITH THE
HEATING OF THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE
CASCADE PASSES. FOR THE LOWLANDS...THE CHILLY AIR MASS LIKELY MEANS
TEMPS WILL NOT GET ABOVE THE LOWER TO MID 60S TUE AFTERNOON...ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INLAND.

THE MODELS SHOW THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENING BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING SHOWERS. THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO NUDGE
IN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLEARING...LOOK FOR THE COOLEST
NIGHTTIME TEMPS OF THE FALL SO FAR TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S AT SOME LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS.  WEAGLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO INCREASES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A
THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN OFFSHORE WINDS...DRY WEATHER...SUNNIER
SKIES...AND SLIGHT WARMING FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS WILL MOVE OVER WASHINGTON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THE EXTREME SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON. MODELS DIVERGE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT GENERALLY
EXPECT NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WEATHER WITH LOW MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND THROUGH SOME OF THE COASTAL GAPS IN THE MORNING AND
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING AS A WEAKENING FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST
THIS MORNING AND INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SOME TEMPO IFR CIGS
INLAND THIS MORNING SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z TO 18Z. CLOUDS THEN
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH CIGS AROUND
4000 FT. COULD SEE MVFR VIS OR CIGS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT
THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. COASTAL AREAS MVFR AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH AND THEN DROPPING TO IFR THIS EVENING. AT ALL
TERMINALS...WINDS STARTING OUT 5 KT TO 10 KT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING BUT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
NORTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 10 KT
INLAND WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 20 KT AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...TEMPO IFR CIGS THIS MORNING SHOULD CLEAR BY
17Z TO 18Z. APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND CIGS AROUND 4000 FT...CLEARING BY AROUND 06Z
TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR MVFR INCREASE AFTER 12Z TUE WITH CIGS MOST
LIKELY AROUND 1500 FT IF THEY DEVELOP. BOWEN/CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. TWEAKED
WINDS A BIT THIS MORNING TO BETTER DEPICT A COASTAL JET TODAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH BY LATE EVENING WITH WINDS THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 KT. WEST SWELL INCREASES
TODAY TO AROUND 7 FT WITH PERIOD AROUND 11 TO 13 SECONDS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 7 TO 8 FT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN DECREASE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 291646
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
944 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...MOST PROLIFIC IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRING THE FIRST DUSTING
OF SNOW TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE AUTUMN WITH CHILLY NIGHTS
AND CRISP AFTERNOONS...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.
MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
MOST OF THE DISTRICT...BUT THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO PUSH
ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST AS OF 16Z THIS MORNING.
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM KLGX LANGLEY HILL IS SHOWING ECHOES
EXTENDING FROM THE WILLAPA HILLS DOWN INTO THE FAR NORTHERN OREGON
COAST AND COAST RANGE. AT THIS POINT NONE OF THE OBSERVATION STATIONS
IN THIS REGION ARE SHOWING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL...BUT EXPECT WE
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND VERY SHORTLY. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE COAST AND COAST RANGE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THEN MOVE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE INTO THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AS THE FRONT DOES LOOK VERY
WELL ORGANIZED ON RADAR OR SATELLITE. THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE PATCHY AND SOMEWHAT SHOWERY
IN NATURE. IR SATELLITE DERIVED CLOUD TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST
CLOUD TOPS ALONG THE FRONT ARE ONLY REACHING 12-15 KFT...SO THE
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW. EXPECTED QPF WITH THE FRONT IS GENERALLY
0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES FOR THE COAST RANGE...AND ONLY SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
FOR MOST IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. PYLE

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
STRENGTHENING JET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...IT WILL BE A FAST MOVER AND
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE COLD ADVECTION
WHICH WILL BRING THE COOLEST AIR MASS SO FAR THIS SEASON. THE
RESULTING MOISTURE AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
SWING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS.

NAM RUNS REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT WITH 850 MB TEMPS +2 TO +4 DEG C BY
TUE MORNING. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE COOL ENOUGH TO BRING THE FIRST
DUSTING OF SNOW OF THE SEASON TO THE HIGHER SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS...
ABOVE 5500-6000 FT. TIMBERLINE LODGE WILL PROBABLY WAKE UP TO A
DUSTING OF SNOW TUE MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD MELT QUICKLY WITH THE
HEATING OF THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE
CASCADE PASSES. FOR THE LOWLANDS...THE CHILLY AIR MASS LIKELY MEANS
TEMPS WILL NOT GET ABOVE THE LOWER TO MID 60S TUE AFTERNOON...ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INLAND.

THE MODELS SHOW THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENING BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING SHOWERS. THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO NUDGE
IN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLEARING...LOOK FOR THE COOLEST
NIGHTTIME TEMPS OF THE FALL SO FAR TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S AT SOME LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS.  WEAGLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO INCREASES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A
THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN OFFSHORE WINDS...DRY WEATHER...SUNNIER
SKIES...AND SLIGHT WARMING FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS WILL MOVE OVER WASHINGTON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THE EXTREME SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON. MODELS DIVERGE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT GENERALLY
EXPECT NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WEATHER WITH LOW MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND THROUGH SOME OF THE COASTAL GAPS IN THE MORNING AND
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING AS A WEAKENING FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST
THIS MORNING AND INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SOME TEMPO IFR CIGS
INLAND THIS MORNING SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z TO 18Z. CLOUDS THEN
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH CIGS AROUND
4000 FT. COULD SEE MVFR VIS OR CIGS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT
THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. COASTAL AREAS MVFR AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH AND THEN DROPPING TO IFR THIS EVENING. AT ALL
TERMINALS...WINDS STARTING OUT 5 KT TO 10 KT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING BUT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
NORTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 10 KT
INLAND WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 20 KT AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...TEMPO IFR CIGS THIS MORNING SHOULD CLEAR BY
17Z TO 18Z. APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND CIGS AROUND 4000 FT...CLEARING BY AROUND 06Z
TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR MVFR INCREASE AFTER 12Z TUE WITH CIGS MOST
LIKELY AROUND 1500 FT IF THEY DEVELOP. BOWEN/CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. TWEAKED
WINDS A BIT THIS MORNING TO BETTER DEPICT A COASTAL JET TODAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH BY LATE EVENING WITH WINDS THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 KT. WEST SWELL INCREASES
TODAY TO AROUND 7 FT WITH PERIOD AROUND 11 TO 13 SECONDS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 7 TO 8 FT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN DECREASE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KMFR 291550
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
850 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING, AS THE FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK. WILL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF THE
WEAK FRONT TODAY THAT SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE COAST, THE
UMPQUA, AND THE CASCADES. DO NOT EXPECT VERY MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION, BUT SOME AREAS COULD GET UP TO 0.10" BY LATE THIS
EVENING. AFTER A COOL MIDWEEK, WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...
MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO KOTH AND IS EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO
DOUGLAS COUNTY INCLUDING THE ROSEBURG AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING ALONG THE COOS COAST AND IN
THE ROSEBURG AREA OF DOUGLAS COUNTY, WHILE INLAND AREAS BECOME VFR
MID-MORNING. A FAIRLY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO KEEP MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THE COAST ALL DAY, WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE VFR
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TO THE EAST CLOUDY SKY WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM BRINGING VIS TO MVFR OR IFR AT KLMT
AROUND SUNRISE. /SVEN


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING.  OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COASTAL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RETURN
TUESDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS BACK TO THE
AREA. /SVEN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A BRIEF COOLING TREND TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED MAINLY IN
DOUGLAS AND COOS COUNTIES. THEN...A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL
USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMING
TREND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY AT LEAST.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING PORTRAYS A RATHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE LACKING DEEP MOISTURE...IN STARK CONTRAST TO
THE FRONT LAST WEAK THAT BROUGHT DRENCHING RAINS TO MOST OF THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN...TRANSIT INLAND AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING BUT A MEMORY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRIER
AIR MASS BUILDS OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM THE FRONT
WILL BE ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN. ELSEWHERE...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THE FRONT.

AFTER A POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH EAST SIDE FROST AND UMPQUA BASIN FOG...WEDNESDAY
WILL BEGIN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND...YET TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE STEADY WARMING...WITH
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY LIKELY THE PEAK OF THE WARMTH. MODELS REMAIN IN
STELLAR AGREEMENT ON THIS DRY AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN...SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND MAYBE
90 ON THE WEST SIDE...WHILE 70S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE CASCADES.
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL LIKELY NOT BE REACHED WITH THE
UPCOMING WARM TO HOT WEATHER BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TOP TEN
PERCENT IN TERMS OF WARM EVENTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/SBN/NSK







000
FXUS66 KMFR 291550
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
850 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING, AS THE FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK. WILL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF THE
WEAK FRONT TODAY THAT SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE COAST, THE
UMPQUA, AND THE CASCADES. DO NOT EXPECT VERY MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION, BUT SOME AREAS COULD GET UP TO 0.10" BY LATE THIS
EVENING. AFTER A COOL MIDWEEK, WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...
MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO KOTH AND IS EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO
DOUGLAS COUNTY INCLUDING THE ROSEBURG AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING ALONG THE COOS COAST AND IN
THE ROSEBURG AREA OF DOUGLAS COUNTY, WHILE INLAND AREAS BECOME VFR
MID-MORNING. A FAIRLY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO KEEP MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THE COAST ALL DAY, WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE VFR
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TO THE EAST CLOUDY SKY WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM BRINGING VIS TO MVFR OR IFR AT KLMT
AROUND SUNRISE. /SVEN


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING.  OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COASTAL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RETURN
TUESDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS BACK TO THE
AREA. /SVEN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A BRIEF COOLING TREND TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED MAINLY IN
DOUGLAS AND COOS COUNTIES. THEN...A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL
USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMING
TREND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY AT LEAST.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING PORTRAYS A RATHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE LACKING DEEP MOISTURE...IN STARK CONTRAST TO
THE FRONT LAST WEAK THAT BROUGHT DRENCHING RAINS TO MOST OF THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN...TRANSIT INLAND AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING BUT A MEMORY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRIER
AIR MASS BUILDS OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM THE FRONT
WILL BE ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN. ELSEWHERE...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THE FRONT.

AFTER A POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH EAST SIDE FROST AND UMPQUA BASIN FOG...WEDNESDAY
WILL BEGIN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND...YET TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE STEADY WARMING...WITH
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY LIKELY THE PEAK OF THE WARMTH. MODELS REMAIN IN
STELLAR AGREEMENT ON THIS DRY AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN...SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND MAYBE
90 ON THE WEST SIDE...WHILE 70S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE CASCADES.
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL LIKELY NOT BE REACHED WITH THE
UPCOMING WARM TO HOT WEATHER BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TOP TEN
PERCENT IN TERMS OF WARM EVENTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/SBN/NSK






000
FXUS66 KPDT 291518
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
822 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS IDAHO THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER UPPER LOW OVER
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SUNNY WITH SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS LATER TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. MUCH COOLER TOMORROW.  94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 134 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW INTO EASTERN OREGON. THIS IS A VERY SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW AND THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE EAST OF
THE CWA ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY LIGHT
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE INCREASING WINDS FROM THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREFORE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY SPEEDS...HOWEVER IT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN CASE CONDITIONS CHANGE SUCH THAT ADVISORY WINDS DO BECOME
LIKELY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH MAXIMUM READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF BY 6-8 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO VALUES BELOW NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY
WEDNESDAY. 88

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME MAINLY IN WASHINGTON ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...OTHERWISE EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY SUNDAY EVENING
ESPECIALLY CASCADE GAPS...OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD. 78

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT
AT THE TAF SITES. RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPINGE ON THE KALW TAF SITE FROM
THE EAST THIS MORNING. LATER TONIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP JUST EAST
OF THE KALW AND KPDT TAF SITES OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL
BECOME A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. W-NW WINDS OF 12-25KT
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  72  50  66  44 /  10  20  10  10
ALW  73  55  67  48 /  10  20  20  10
PSC  77  52  71  46 /   0  10  10   0
YKM  73  47  68  43 /   0  10   0   0
HRI  75  50  70  45 /   0  10  10   0
ELN  70  47  63  43 /   0  10  10   0
RDM  68  39  62  33 /   0  20   0   0
LGD  66  45  60  41 /  30  30  20  10
GCD  68  43  60  39 /  30  20  10  10
DLS  71  54  67  48 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94





000
FXUS66 KPDT 291518
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
822 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS IDAHO THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER UPPER LOW OVER
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SUNNY WITH SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS LATER TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. MUCH COOLER TOMORROW.  94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 134 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW INTO EASTERN OREGON. THIS IS A VERY SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW AND THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE EAST OF
THE CWA ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY LIGHT
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE INCREASING WINDS FROM THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREFORE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY SPEEDS...HOWEVER IT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN CASE CONDITIONS CHANGE SUCH THAT ADVISORY WINDS DO BECOME
LIKELY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH MAXIMUM READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF BY 6-8 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO VALUES BELOW NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY
WEDNESDAY. 88

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME MAINLY IN WASHINGTON ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...OTHERWISE EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY SUNDAY EVENING
ESPECIALLY CASCADE GAPS...OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD. 78

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT
AT THE TAF SITES. RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPINGE ON THE KALW TAF SITE FROM
THE EAST THIS MORNING. LATER TONIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP JUST EAST
OF THE KALW AND KPDT TAF SITES OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL
BECOME A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. W-NW WINDS OF 12-25KT
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  72  50  66  44 /  10  20  10  10
ALW  73  55  67  48 /  10  20  20  10
PSC  77  52  71  46 /   0  10  10   0
YKM  73  47  68  43 /   0  10   0   0
HRI  75  50  70  45 /   0  10  10   0
ELN  70  47  63  43 /   0  10  10   0
RDM  68  39  62  33 /   0  20   0   0
LGD  66  45  60  41 /  30  30  20  10
GCD  68  43  60  39 /  30  20  10  10
DLS  71  54  67  48 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94






000
FXUS65 KBOI 291507
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
907 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...SO FAR TODAY 0.33 INCHES OF RAIN WAS RECORDED AT
THE BOISE AIRPORT WHICH IS THE SECOND MOST PRECIPITATION FOR
SEPTEMBER 29TH. MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND...THAT DROPPED OVER AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND A HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE VALLEY...HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE TREASURE VALLEY AT 09Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN IDAHO. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO MATCH RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING. NO CHANGE IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
UPPER LOW PULLS EAST AND SHOULD BRING THE PRECIPITATION ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THROUGH SW IDAHO. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE MUCH
LOWER WITH THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND
THIS EVENING BUT ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SE IDAHO. UPDATE FORECAST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW VFR IN THE VALLEYS AND LOCAL MVFR IN MTNS
OBSCURING TERRAIN TODAY. AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL PRODUCE LOW-
VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN THROUGH 18Z. CONDITIONS LIFT TO MVFR OR LOW VFR ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH HIGHER MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SW IDAHO
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOCALLY GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WITH SPEEDS TO 25
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS ALOFT TO 30 KTS AT 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ELONGATED CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WILL LIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAY. THE BROAD
PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT ACCOMPANIED IT OVERNIGHT WILL LINGER
OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO /TOWARDS THE OREGON BORDER/. WILL SEE
A DECREASE IN INTENSITY /RAINFALL RATES/ AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER
PULLS EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION PULLS INTO EASTERN
IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE
PAC NW. SHOWERS ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. COOL NW FLOW FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
BE THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT ON GRADUALLY BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN NW OVER THE WEEKEND. RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....JDS
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....DG/DD



000
FXUS65 KBOI 291507
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
907 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...SO FAR TODAY 0.33 INCHES OF RAIN WAS RECORDED AT
THE BOISE AIRPORT WHICH IS THE SECOND MOST PRECIPITATION FOR
SEPTEMBER 29TH. MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND...THAT DROPPED OVER AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND A HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE VALLEY...HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE TREASURE VALLEY AT 09Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN IDAHO. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO MATCH RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING. NO CHANGE IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
UPPER LOW PULLS EAST AND SHOULD BRING THE PRECIPITATION ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THROUGH SW IDAHO. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE MUCH
LOWER WITH THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND
THIS EVENING BUT ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SE IDAHO. UPDATE FORECAST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW VFR IN THE VALLEYS AND LOCAL MVFR IN MTNS
OBSCURING TERRAIN TODAY. AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL PRODUCE LOW-
VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN THROUGH 18Z. CONDITIONS LIFT TO MVFR OR LOW VFR ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH HIGHER MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SW IDAHO
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOCALLY GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WITH SPEEDS TO 25
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS ALOFT TO 30 KTS AT 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ELONGATED CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WILL LIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAY. THE BROAD
PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT ACCOMPANIED IT OVERNIGHT WILL LINGER
OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO /TOWARDS THE OREGON BORDER/. WILL SEE
A DECREASE IN INTENSITY /RAINFALL RATES/ AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER
PULLS EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION PULLS INTO EASTERN
IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE
PAC NW. SHOWERS ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. COOL NW FLOW FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
BE THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT ON GRADUALLY BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN NW OVER THE WEEKEND. RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....JDS
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....DG/DD



000
FXUS65 KBOI 291507
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
907 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...SO FAR TODAY 0.33 INCHES OF RAIN WAS RECORDED AT
THE BOISE AIRPORT WHICH IS THE SECOND MOST PRECIPITATION FOR
SEPTEMBER 29TH. MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND...THAT DROPPED OVER AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND A HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE VALLEY...HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE TREASURE VALLEY AT 09Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN IDAHO. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO MATCH RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING. NO CHANGE IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
UPPER LOW PULLS EAST AND SHOULD BRING THE PRECIPITATION ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THROUGH SW IDAHO. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE MUCH
LOWER WITH THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND
THIS EVENING BUT ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SE IDAHO. UPDATE FORECAST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW VFR IN THE VALLEYS AND LOCAL MVFR IN MTNS
OBSCURING TERRAIN TODAY. AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL PRODUCE LOW-
VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN THROUGH 18Z. CONDITIONS LIFT TO MVFR OR LOW VFR ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH HIGHER MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SW IDAHO
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOCALLY GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WITH SPEEDS TO 25
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS ALOFT TO 30 KTS AT 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ELONGATED CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WILL LIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAY. THE BROAD
PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT ACCOMPANIED IT OVERNIGHT WILL LINGER
OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO /TOWARDS THE OREGON BORDER/. WILL SEE
A DECREASE IN INTENSITY /RAINFALL RATES/ AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER
PULLS EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION PULLS INTO EASTERN
IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE
PAC NW. SHOWERS ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. COOL NW FLOW FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
BE THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT ON GRADUALLY BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN NW OVER THE WEEKEND. RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....JDS
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....DG/DD



000
FXUS65 KBOI 291507
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
907 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...SO FAR TODAY 0.33 INCHES OF RAIN WAS RECORDED AT
THE BOISE AIRPORT WHICH IS THE SECOND MOST PRECIPITATION FOR
SEPTEMBER 29TH. MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND...THAT DROPPED OVER AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND A HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE VALLEY...HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE TREASURE VALLEY AT 09Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN IDAHO. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO MATCH RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING. NO CHANGE IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
UPPER LOW PULLS EAST AND SHOULD BRING THE PRECIPITATION ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THROUGH SW IDAHO. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE MUCH
LOWER WITH THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND
THIS EVENING BUT ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SE IDAHO. UPDATE FORECAST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW VFR IN THE VALLEYS AND LOCAL MVFR IN MTNS
OBSCURING TERRAIN TODAY. AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL PRODUCE LOW-
VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN THROUGH 18Z. CONDITIONS LIFT TO MVFR OR LOW VFR ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH HIGHER MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SW IDAHO
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOCALLY GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WITH SPEEDS TO 25
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS ALOFT TO 30 KTS AT 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ELONGATED CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WILL LIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAY. THE BROAD
PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT ACCOMPANIED IT OVERNIGHT WILL LINGER
OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO /TOWARDS THE OREGON BORDER/. WILL SEE
A DECREASE IN INTENSITY /RAINFALL RATES/ AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER
PULLS EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION PULLS INTO EASTERN
IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE
PAC NW. SHOWERS ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. COOL NW FLOW FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
BE THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT ON GRADUALLY BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN NW OVER THE WEEKEND. RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....JDS
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....DG/DD



000
FXUS66 KMFR 291014
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
314 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A BRIEF COOLING TREND TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED MAINLY IN
DOUGLAS AND COOS COUNTIES. THEN...A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL
USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMING
TREND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY AT LEAST.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING PORTRAYS A RATHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE LACKING DEEP MOISTURE...IN STARK CONTRAST TO
THE FRONT LAST WEAK THAT BROUGHT DRENCHING RAINS TO MOST OF THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN...TRANSIT INLAND AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING BUT A MEMORY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRIER
AIR MASS BUILDS OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM THE FRONT
WILL BE ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN. ELSEWHERE...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THE FRONT.

AFTER A POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH EAST SIDE FROST AND UMPQUA BASIN FOG...WEDNESDAY
WILL BEGIN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND...YET TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE STEADY WARMING...WITH
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY LIKELY THE PEAK OF THE WARMTH. MODELS REMAIN IN
STELLAR AGREEMENT ON THIS DRY AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN...SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND MAYBE
90 ON THE WEST SIDE...WHILE 70S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE CASCADES.
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL LIKELY NOT BE REACHED WITH THE
UPCOMING WARM TO HOT WEATHER BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TOP TEN
PERCENT IN TERMS OF WARM EVENTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO KOTH AND WILL EXPAND TO COVER
MOST OF COOS COUNTY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS INTO THE
ROSEBURG AREA AROUND DAY BREAK. MVFR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MORNING ALONG THE COOS COAST AND IN THE ROSEBURG AREA
OF DOUGLAS COUNTY, WHILE INLAND AREAS BECOME VFR MID-MORNING. A
NEW AND FAIRLY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO KEEP MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THE COAST ALL DAY, WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE VFR
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TO THE EAST CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLEAR SOME THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM
BRINGING VIS TO MVFR OR IFR AT KLMT AROUND SUNRISE. /FB


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT SUN 28 SEP 2014...AN APPROACHING
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS WEAKENED THE THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN...AND
WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DECREASED THIS MORNING. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A COASTAL
THERMAL TROUGH WILL RETURN TUESDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS BACK TO THE AREA. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

NSK/NSK/FJB






000
FXUS66 KMFR 291014
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
314 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A BRIEF COOLING TREND TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED MAINLY IN
DOUGLAS AND COOS COUNTIES. THEN...A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL
USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMING
TREND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY AT LEAST.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING PORTRAYS A RATHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE LACKING DEEP MOISTURE...IN STARK CONTRAST TO
THE FRONT LAST WEAK THAT BROUGHT DRENCHING RAINS TO MOST OF THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN...TRANSIT INLAND AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING BUT A MEMORY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRIER
AIR MASS BUILDS OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM THE FRONT
WILL BE ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN. ELSEWHERE...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THE FRONT.

AFTER A POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH EAST SIDE FROST AND UMPQUA BASIN FOG...WEDNESDAY
WILL BEGIN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND...YET TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE STEADY WARMING...WITH
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY LIKELY THE PEAK OF THE WARMTH. MODELS REMAIN IN
STELLAR AGREEMENT ON THIS DRY AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN...SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND MAYBE
90 ON THE WEST SIDE...WHILE 70S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE CASCADES.
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL LIKELY NOT BE REACHED WITH THE
UPCOMING WARM TO HOT WEATHER BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TOP TEN
PERCENT IN TERMS OF WARM EVENTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO KOTH AND WILL EXPAND TO COVER
MOST OF COOS COUNTY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS INTO THE
ROSEBURG AREA AROUND DAY BREAK. MVFR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MORNING ALONG THE COOS COAST AND IN THE ROSEBURG AREA
OF DOUGLAS COUNTY, WHILE INLAND AREAS BECOME VFR MID-MORNING. A
NEW AND FAIRLY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO KEEP MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THE COAST ALL DAY, WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE VFR
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TO THE EAST CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLEAR SOME THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM
BRINGING VIS TO MVFR OR IFR AT KLMT AROUND SUNRISE. /FB


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT SUN 28 SEP 2014...AN APPROACHING
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS WEAKENED THE THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN...AND
WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DECREASED THIS MORNING. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A COASTAL
THERMAL TROUGH WILL RETURN TUESDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS BACK TO THE AREA. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

NSK/NSK/FJB






000
FXUS66 KMFR 291014
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
314 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A BRIEF COOLING TREND TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED MAINLY IN
DOUGLAS AND COOS COUNTIES. THEN...A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL
USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMING
TREND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY AT LEAST.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING PORTRAYS A RATHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE LACKING DEEP MOISTURE...IN STARK CONTRAST TO
THE FRONT LAST WEAK THAT BROUGHT DRENCHING RAINS TO MOST OF THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN...TRANSIT INLAND AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING BUT A MEMORY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRIER
AIR MASS BUILDS OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM THE FRONT
WILL BE ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN. ELSEWHERE...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THE FRONT.

AFTER A POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH EAST SIDE FROST AND UMPQUA BASIN FOG...WEDNESDAY
WILL BEGIN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND...YET TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE STEADY WARMING...WITH
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY LIKELY THE PEAK OF THE WARMTH. MODELS REMAIN IN
STELLAR AGREEMENT ON THIS DRY AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN...SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND MAYBE
90 ON THE WEST SIDE...WHILE 70S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE CASCADES.
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL LIKELY NOT BE REACHED WITH THE
UPCOMING WARM TO HOT WEATHER BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TOP TEN
PERCENT IN TERMS OF WARM EVENTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO KOTH AND WILL EXPAND TO COVER
MOST OF COOS COUNTY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS INTO THE
ROSEBURG AREA AROUND DAY BREAK. MVFR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MORNING ALONG THE COOS COAST AND IN THE ROSEBURG AREA
OF DOUGLAS COUNTY, WHILE INLAND AREAS BECOME VFR MID-MORNING. A
NEW AND FAIRLY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO KEEP MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THE COAST ALL DAY, WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE VFR
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TO THE EAST CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLEAR SOME THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM
BRINGING VIS TO MVFR OR IFR AT KLMT AROUND SUNRISE. /FB


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT SUN 28 SEP 2014...AN APPROACHING
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS WEAKENED THE THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN...AND
WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DECREASED THIS MORNING. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A COASTAL
THERMAL TROUGH WILL RETURN TUESDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS BACK TO THE AREA. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

NSK/NSK/FJB






000
FXUS66 KMFR 291014
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
314 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A BRIEF COOLING TREND TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED MAINLY IN
DOUGLAS AND COOS COUNTIES. THEN...A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL
USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMING
TREND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY AT LEAST.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING PORTRAYS A RATHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE LACKING DEEP MOISTURE...IN STARK CONTRAST TO
THE FRONT LAST WEAK THAT BROUGHT DRENCHING RAINS TO MOST OF THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN...TRANSIT INLAND AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING BUT A MEMORY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRIER
AIR MASS BUILDS OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM THE FRONT
WILL BE ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN. ELSEWHERE...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THE FRONT.

AFTER A POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH EAST SIDE FROST AND UMPQUA BASIN FOG...WEDNESDAY
WILL BEGIN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND...YET TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE STEADY WARMING...WITH
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY LIKELY THE PEAK OF THE WARMTH. MODELS REMAIN IN
STELLAR AGREEMENT ON THIS DRY AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN...SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND MAYBE
90 ON THE WEST SIDE...WHILE 70S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE CASCADES.
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL LIKELY NOT BE REACHED WITH THE
UPCOMING WARM TO HOT WEATHER BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TOP TEN
PERCENT IN TERMS OF WARM EVENTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO KOTH AND WILL EXPAND TO COVER
MOST OF COOS COUNTY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS INTO THE
ROSEBURG AREA AROUND DAY BREAK. MVFR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MORNING ALONG THE COOS COAST AND IN THE ROSEBURG AREA
OF DOUGLAS COUNTY, WHILE INLAND AREAS BECOME VFR MID-MORNING. A
NEW AND FAIRLY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO KEEP MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THE COAST ALL DAY, WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE VFR
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TO THE EAST CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLEAR SOME THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM
BRINGING VIS TO MVFR OR IFR AT KLMT AROUND SUNRISE. /FB


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT SUN 28 SEP 2014...AN APPROACHING
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS WEAKENED THE THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN...AND
WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DECREASED THIS MORNING. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A COASTAL
THERMAL TROUGH WILL RETURN TUESDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS BACK TO THE AREA. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

NSK/NSK/FJB






000
FXUS65 KBOI 290942
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
342 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ELONGATED CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WILL LIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAY. THE BROAD
PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT ACCOMPANIED IT OVERNIGHT WILL LINGER
OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO /TOWARDS THE OREGON BORDER/. WILL SEE
A DECREASE IN INTENSITY /RAINFALL RATES/ AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER
PULLS EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION PULLS INTO EASTERN
IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE
PAC NW. SHOWERS ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. COOL NW FLOW FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
BE THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT ON GRADUALLY BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN NW OVER THE WEEKEND. RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL IFR IN MTNS OF SW IDAHO WILL OBSCURE TERRAIN
THROUGH 15Z TODAY. IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND SE OREGON...AREAS
OF MODERATE RAIN WILL PRODUCE LOW-VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS LIFT TO MVFR OR LOW VFR ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH HIGHER MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WITH SPEEDS TO 25 KTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS ALOFT TO 30 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DG/DD
AVIATION.....DG




000
FXUS65 KBOI 290942
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
342 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ELONGATED CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WILL LIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAY. THE BROAD
PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT ACCOMPANIED IT OVERNIGHT WILL LINGER
OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO /TOWARDS THE OREGON BORDER/. WILL SEE
A DECREASE IN INTENSITY /RAINFALL RATES/ AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER
PULLS EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION PULLS INTO EASTERN
IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE
PAC NW. SHOWERS ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. COOL NW FLOW FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
BE THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT ON GRADUALLY BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN NW OVER THE WEEKEND. RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL IFR IN MTNS OF SW IDAHO WILL OBSCURE TERRAIN
THROUGH 15Z TODAY. IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND SE OREGON...AREAS
OF MODERATE RAIN WILL PRODUCE LOW-VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS LIFT TO MVFR OR LOW VFR ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH HIGHER MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WITH SPEEDS TO 25 KTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS ALOFT TO 30 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DG/DD
AVIATION.....DG




000
FXUS65 KBOI 290942
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
342 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ELONGATED CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WILL LIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAY. THE BROAD
PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT ACCOMPANIED IT OVERNIGHT WILL LINGER
OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO /TOWARDS THE OREGON BORDER/. WILL SEE
A DECREASE IN INTENSITY /RAINFALL RATES/ AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER
PULLS EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION PULLS INTO EASTERN
IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE
PAC NW. SHOWERS ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. COOL NW FLOW FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
BE THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT ON GRADUALLY BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN NW OVER THE WEEKEND. RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL IFR IN MTNS OF SW IDAHO WILL OBSCURE TERRAIN
THROUGH 15Z TODAY. IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND SE OREGON...AREAS
OF MODERATE RAIN WILL PRODUCE LOW-VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS LIFT TO MVFR OR LOW VFR ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH HIGHER MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WITH SPEEDS TO 25 KTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS ALOFT TO 30 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DG/DD
AVIATION.....DG




000
FXUS65 KBOI 290942
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
342 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ELONGATED CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WILL LIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAY. THE BROAD
PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT ACCOMPANIED IT OVERNIGHT WILL LINGER
OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO /TOWARDS THE OREGON BORDER/. WILL SEE
A DECREASE IN INTENSITY /RAINFALL RATES/ AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER
PULLS EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION PULLS INTO EASTERN
IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE
PAC NW. SHOWERS ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. COOL NW FLOW FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
BE THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT ON GRADUALLY BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN NW OVER THE WEEKEND. RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL IFR IN MTNS OF SW IDAHO WILL OBSCURE TERRAIN
THROUGH 15Z TODAY. IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND SE OREGON...AREAS
OF MODERATE RAIN WILL PRODUCE LOW-VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS LIFT TO MVFR OR LOW VFR ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH HIGHER MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WITH SPEEDS TO 25 KTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS ALOFT TO 30 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DG/DD
AVIATION.....DG




000
FXUS66 KPQR 290934
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
234 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...MOST PROLIFIC IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRING THE FIRST DUSTING
OF SNOW TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE AUTUMN WITH CHILLY NIGHTS
AND CRISP AFTERNOONS...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.
MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
MOST OF THE DISTRICT...BUT THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SOLID DECK OF MARINE
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH ONSHORE FLOW
BEGINNING TO PUSH LOW CLOUDS INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE COAST AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE ON
INFRARED IMAGERY...AS IT APPEARS TO BE DETACHED FROM THE DEEPER
MOISTURE SOURCE IN THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL PACIFIC. EVEN SO...AMSU
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS ABOUT 1 INCH OF PW ALONG THE FRONT.
MEANWHILE A STRENGTHENING 100 KT+ PACIFIC JET IS NOSING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. THUS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO COUPLE WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN FOR MOST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY.

WITH THE STRENGTHENING JET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...IT WILL BE A FAST
MOVER AND SHOULD BE ACROSS THE CASCADES BY LATE AFTERNOON. COOL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL BRING THE COOLEST AIR MASS SO FAR THIS
SEASON. THE RESULTING MOISTURE AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL SWING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS.

NAM RUNS REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT WITH 850 MB TEMPS +2 TO +4 DEG C BY
TUE MORNING. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE COOL ENOUGH TO BRING THE FIRST
DUSTING OF SNOW OF THE SEASON TO THE HIGHER SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS...
ABOVE 5500-6000 FT. TIMBERLINE LODGE WILL PROBABLY WAKE UP TO A
DUSTING OF SNOW TUE MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD MELT QUICKLY WITH THE
HEATING OF THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE
CASCADE PASSES. FOR THE LOWLANDS...THE CHILLY AIR MASS LIKELY MEANS
TEMPS WILL NOT GET ABOVE THE LOWER TO MID 60S TUE AFTERNOON...ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INLAND.

THE MODELS SHOW THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENING BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING SHOWERS. THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO NUDGE
IN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLEARING...LOOK FOR THE COOLEST
NIGHTTIME TEMPS OF THE FALL SO FAR TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S AT SOME LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS.  WEAGLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO INCREASES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A
THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN OFFSHORE WINDS...DRY WEATHER...SUNNIER
SKIES...AND SLIGHT WARMING FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS WILL MOVE OVER WASHINGTON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THE EXTREME SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON. MODELS DIVERGE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT GENERALLY
EXPECT NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WEATHER WITH LOW MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND THROUGH SOME OF THE COASTAL GAPS IN THE MORNING AND
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING AS A WEAKENING FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST
LATE MONDAY MORNING AND INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR PREVAILING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES EXPECT LOCAL PATCHY
FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
DAYBREAK. CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS FORMING AND
LOWERING TO AROUND 4000-5000 FT...WITH A CHANCE FOR CIGS TO LOWER
TO MVFR THIS EVENING. COASTAL AREAS SEEING SOME LOW MVFR TO IFR
STRATUS IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE FRONT PROBABLY BRINGS A MIX OF LOW
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THIS MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP 13-17Z. CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT LOWER...BUT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE SMALLER
TODAY THAN 24 HRS AGO SO THINK A SIMILAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY SHALLOW FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. APPROACHING
FRONT BRING LOWERING CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT 4000-6000 FT
RANGE CIGS THROUGH 00Z TUE. CHANCES FOR MVFR INCREASE AFTER 00Z
TUE WITH CIGS MOST LIKELY AROUND 2500 FT IF THEY DEVELOP. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...DOMINANT NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY POST
FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO HAVE SHORT PERIODS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT IN A
NEAR SHORE PRE-FRONTAL COASTAL JET THEN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE FRONT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH FOR
WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SEAS NEAR 4 FT OVER ALL WATERS THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE WIND WAVE INFLUENCED NEAR SHORE IN PROXIMITY TO COASTAL
JET MONDAY MORNING. A WEST SWELL ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATER MONDAY BUILDING SEAS BACK TO AROUND 8 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 290934
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
234 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...MOST PROLIFIC IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRING THE FIRST DUSTING
OF SNOW TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE AUTUMN WITH CHILLY NIGHTS
AND CRISP AFTERNOONS...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.
MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
MOST OF THE DISTRICT...BUT THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SOLID DECK OF MARINE
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH ONSHORE FLOW
BEGINNING TO PUSH LOW CLOUDS INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE COAST AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE ON
INFRARED IMAGERY...AS IT APPEARS TO BE DETACHED FROM THE DEEPER
MOISTURE SOURCE IN THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL PACIFIC. EVEN SO...AMSU
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS ABOUT 1 INCH OF PW ALONG THE FRONT.
MEANWHILE A STRENGTHENING 100 KT+ PACIFIC JET IS NOSING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. THUS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO COUPLE WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN FOR MOST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY.

WITH THE STRENGTHENING JET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...IT WILL BE A FAST
MOVER AND SHOULD BE ACROSS THE CASCADES BY LATE AFTERNOON. COOL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL BRING THE COOLEST AIR MASS SO FAR THIS
SEASON. THE RESULTING MOISTURE AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL SWING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS.

NAM RUNS REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT WITH 850 MB TEMPS +2 TO +4 DEG C BY
TUE MORNING. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE COOL ENOUGH TO BRING THE FIRST
DUSTING OF SNOW OF THE SEASON TO THE HIGHER SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS...
ABOVE 5500-6000 FT. TIMBERLINE LODGE WILL PROBABLY WAKE UP TO A
DUSTING OF SNOW TUE MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD MELT QUICKLY WITH THE
HEATING OF THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE
CASCADE PASSES. FOR THE LOWLANDS...THE CHILLY AIR MASS LIKELY MEANS
TEMPS WILL NOT GET ABOVE THE LOWER TO MID 60S TUE AFTERNOON...ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INLAND.

THE MODELS SHOW THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENING BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING SHOWERS. THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO NUDGE
IN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLEARING...LOOK FOR THE COOLEST
NIGHTTIME TEMPS OF THE FALL SO FAR TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S AT SOME LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS.  WEAGLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO INCREASES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A
THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN OFFSHORE WINDS...DRY WEATHER...SUNNIER
SKIES...AND SLIGHT WARMING FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS WILL MOVE OVER WASHINGTON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THE EXTREME SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON. MODELS DIVERGE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT GENERALLY
EXPECT NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WEATHER WITH LOW MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND THROUGH SOME OF THE COASTAL GAPS IN THE MORNING AND
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING AS A WEAKENING FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST
LATE MONDAY MORNING AND INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR PREVAILING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES EXPECT LOCAL PATCHY
FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
DAYBREAK. CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS FORMING AND
LOWERING TO AROUND 4000-5000 FT...WITH A CHANCE FOR CIGS TO LOWER
TO MVFR THIS EVENING. COASTAL AREAS SEEING SOME LOW MVFR TO IFR
STRATUS IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE FRONT PROBABLY BRINGS A MIX OF LOW
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THIS MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP 13-17Z. CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT LOWER...BUT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE SMALLER
TODAY THAN 24 HRS AGO SO THINK A SIMILAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY SHALLOW FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. APPROACHING
FRONT BRING LOWERING CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT 4000-6000 FT
RANGE CIGS THROUGH 00Z TUE. CHANCES FOR MVFR INCREASE AFTER 00Z
TUE WITH CIGS MOST LIKELY AROUND 2500 FT IF THEY DEVELOP. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...DOMINANT NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY POST
FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO HAVE SHORT PERIODS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT IN A
NEAR SHORE PRE-FRONTAL COASTAL JET THEN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE FRONT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH FOR
WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SEAS NEAR 4 FT OVER ALL WATERS THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE WIND WAVE INFLUENCED NEAR SHORE IN PROXIMITY TO COASTAL
JET MONDAY MORNING. A WEST SWELL ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATER MONDAY BUILDING SEAS BACK TO AROUND 8 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&



000
FXUS66 KPDT 290834
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
134 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW INTO EASTERN OREGON. THIS IS A VERY SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW AND THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE EAST OF
THE CWA ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY LIGHT
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE INCREASING WINDS FROM THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREFORE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY SPEEDS...HOWEVER IT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN CASE CONDITIONS CHANGE SUCH THAT ADVISORY WINDS DO BECOME
LIKELY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH MAXIMUM READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF BY 6-8 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO VALUES BELOW NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY
WEDNESDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME MAINLY IN WASHINGTON ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...OTHERWISE EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY SUNDAY EVENING
ESPECIALLY CASCADE GAPS...OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT
AT THE TAF SITES. RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPINGE ON THE KALW TAF SITE FROM
THE EAST THIS MORNING. LATER TONIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP JUST EAST
OF THE KALW AND KPDT TAF SITES OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL
BECOME A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. W-NW WINDS OF 12-25KT
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  72  50  66  44 /  10  20  10  10
ALW  73  55  67  48 /  10  20  20  10
PSC  77  52  71  46 /   0  10  10   0
YKM  73  47  68  43 /   0  10   0   0
HRI  75  50  70  45 /   0  10  10   0
ELN  69  47  63  43 /   0  10  10   0
RDM  69  39  62  33 /   0  20   0   0
LGD  65  45  60  41 /  30  30  20  10
GCD  68  43  60  39 /  30  20  10  10
DLS  70  54  67  48 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/78/78





000
FXUS66 KPDT 290834
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
134 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW INTO EASTERN OREGON. THIS IS A VERY SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW AND THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE EAST OF
THE CWA ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY LIGHT
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE INCREASING WINDS FROM THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREFORE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY SPEEDS...HOWEVER IT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN CASE CONDITIONS CHANGE SUCH THAT ADVISORY WINDS DO BECOME
LIKELY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH MAXIMUM READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF BY 6-8 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO VALUES BELOW NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY
WEDNESDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME MAINLY IN WASHINGTON ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...OTHERWISE EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY SUNDAY EVENING
ESPECIALLY CASCADE GAPS...OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT
AT THE TAF SITES. RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPINGE ON THE KALW TAF SITE FROM
THE EAST THIS MORNING. LATER TONIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP JUST EAST
OF THE KALW AND KPDT TAF SITES OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL
BECOME A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. W-NW WINDS OF 12-25KT
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  72  50  66  44 /  10  20  10  10
ALW  73  55  67  48 /  10  20  20  10
PSC  77  52  71  46 /   0  10  10   0
YKM  73  47  68  43 /   0  10   0   0
HRI  75  50  70  45 /   0  10  10   0
ELN  69  47  63  43 /   0  10  10   0
RDM  69  39  62  33 /   0  20   0   0
LGD  65  45  60  41 /  30  30  20  10
GCD  68  43  60  39 /  30  20  10  10
DLS  70  54  67  48 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/78/78





000
FXUS66 KPDT 290834
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
134 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW INTO EASTERN OREGON. THIS IS A VERY SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW AND THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE EAST OF
THE CWA ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY LIGHT
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE INCREASING WINDS FROM THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREFORE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY SPEEDS...HOWEVER IT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN CASE CONDITIONS CHANGE SUCH THAT ADVISORY WINDS DO BECOME
LIKELY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH MAXIMUM READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF BY 6-8 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO VALUES BELOW NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY
WEDNESDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME MAINLY IN WASHINGTON ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...OTHERWISE EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY SUNDAY EVENING
ESPECIALLY CASCADE GAPS...OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT
AT THE TAF SITES. RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPINGE ON THE KALW TAF SITE FROM
THE EAST THIS MORNING. LATER TONIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP JUST EAST
OF THE KALW AND KPDT TAF SITES OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL
BECOME A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. W-NW WINDS OF 12-25KT
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  72  50  66  44 /  10  20  10  10
ALW  73  55  67  48 /  10  20  20  10
PSC  77  52  71  46 /   0  10  10   0
YKM  73  47  68  43 /   0  10   0   0
HRI  75  50  70  45 /   0  10  10   0
ELN  69  47  63  43 /   0  10  10   0
RDM  69  39  62  33 /   0  20   0   0
LGD  65  45  60  41 /  30  30  20  10
GCD  68  43  60  39 /  30  20  10  10
DLS  70  54  67  48 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/78/78





000
FXUS66 KPDT 290834
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
134 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW INTO EASTERN OREGON. THIS IS A VERY SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW AND THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE EAST OF
THE CWA ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY LIGHT
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE INCREASING WINDS FROM THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREFORE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY SPEEDS...HOWEVER IT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN CASE CONDITIONS CHANGE SUCH THAT ADVISORY WINDS DO BECOME
LIKELY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH MAXIMUM READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF BY 6-8 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO VALUES BELOW NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY
WEDNESDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME MAINLY IN WASHINGTON ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...OTHERWISE EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY SUNDAY EVENING
ESPECIALLY CASCADE GAPS...OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT
AT THE TAF SITES. RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPINGE ON THE KALW TAF SITE FROM
THE EAST THIS MORNING. LATER TONIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP JUST EAST
OF THE KALW AND KPDT TAF SITES OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL
BECOME A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. W-NW WINDS OF 12-25KT
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  72  50  66  44 /  10  20  10  10
ALW  73  55  67  48 /  10  20  20  10
PSC  77  52  71  46 /   0  10  10   0
YKM  73  47  68  43 /   0  10   0   0
HRI  75  50  70  45 /   0  10  10   0
ELN  69  47  63  43 /   0  10  10   0
RDM  69  39  62  33 /   0  20   0   0
LGD  65  45  60  41 /  30  30  20  10
GCD  68  43  60  39 /  30  20  10  10
DLS  70  54  67  48 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/78/78





000
FXUS66 KPDT 290544 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1040 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER NEVADA WAS PUMPING
MOISTURE OVER THE TOP AND INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. THUS FAR LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PCPN WAS REPORTED. HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS WERE
JUST TO OUR EAST THAT COULD RETROGRADE INTO THE BLUE/WALLOWS AS WELL
AS THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR CHANGES
TO CLOUD COVER THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST BEFORE LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z WHEN A DISTURBANCES TRACKS THROUGH
THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE LCL MVFR CONDITIONS...WIND GUSTS TO 25
KTS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AND THIS WILL
PERSIST INTO MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 500 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY. 12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOVING NEVADA UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA INTO IDAHO
OVERNIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY OPENING UP INTO A WAVE ACROSS MONTANA.
NEXT PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GIVES THE UPPER LOW A GOOD PUSH LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE PACIFIC NW.  IT WILL LIKELY
BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE CASCADES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THE COOLER
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL WITH FROST LIKELY IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL OREGON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
BEGINNING THURSDAY FOR THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THE AREA WILL BE INCREASED
CLOUDS IN THE WASHINGTON PORTION OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM AND TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON
SATURDAY AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE GIVING US A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THE
FRONT WEAKENS BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SOME RAIN ALONG THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST ON SATURDAY AS THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS THEN CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS THEN WARM TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT REACHING THE LOWER
TO MID 50S WITH UPPER 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  72  50  66 /  10  10  20  10
ALW  59  74  55  68 /  10  10  20  20
PSC  55  77  52  72 /  10   0  10  10
YKM  51  73  47  67 /   0   0  10   0
HRI  53  76  50  71 /  10   0  10  10
ELN  50  70  47  63 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  42  67  39  62 /  10   0  20   0
LGD  50  67  45  61 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  47  69  43  61 /  30  30  20  10
DLS  56  72  54  68 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97






000
FXUS66 KPDT 290544 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1040 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER NEVADA WAS PUMPING
MOISTURE OVER THE TOP AND INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. THUS FAR LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PCPN WAS REPORTED. HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS WERE
JUST TO OUR EAST THAT COULD RETROGRADE INTO THE BLUE/WALLOWS AS WELL
AS THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR CHANGES
TO CLOUD COVER THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST BEFORE LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z WHEN A DISTURBANCES TRACKS THROUGH
THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE LCL MVFR CONDITIONS...WIND GUSTS TO 25
KTS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AND THIS WILL
PERSIST INTO MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 500 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY. 12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOVING NEVADA UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA INTO IDAHO
OVERNIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY OPENING UP INTO A WAVE ACROSS MONTANA.
NEXT PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GIVES THE UPPER LOW A GOOD PUSH LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE PACIFIC NW.  IT WILL LIKELY
BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE CASCADES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THE COOLER
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL WITH FROST LIKELY IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL OREGON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
BEGINNING THURSDAY FOR THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THE AREA WILL BE INCREASED
CLOUDS IN THE WASHINGTON PORTION OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM AND TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON
SATURDAY AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE GIVING US A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THE
FRONT WEAKENS BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SOME RAIN ALONG THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST ON SATURDAY AS THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS THEN CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS THEN WARM TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT REACHING THE LOWER
TO MID 50S WITH UPPER 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  72  50  66 /  10  10  20  10
ALW  59  74  55  68 /  10  10  20  20
PSC  55  77  52  72 /  10   0  10  10
YKM  51  73  47  67 /   0   0  10   0
HRI  53  76  50  71 /  10   0  10  10
ELN  50  70  47  63 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  42  67  39  62 /  10   0  20   0
LGD  50  67  45  61 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  47  69  43  61 /  30  30  20  10
DLS  56  72  54  68 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97







000
FXUS66 KPDT 290426 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
920 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER NEVADA WAS PUMPING
MOISTURE OVER THE TOP AND INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. THUS FAR LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PCPN WAS REPORTED. HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS WERE
JUST TO OUR EAST THAT COULD RETROGRADE INTO THE BLUE/WALLOWS AS WELL
AS THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR CHANGES
TO CLOUD COVER THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 500 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY. 12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOVING NEVADA UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA INTO IDAHO
OVERNIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY OPENING UP INTO A WAVE ACROSS MONTANA.
NEXT PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GIVES THE UPPER LOW A GOOD PUSH LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE PACIFIC NW.  IT WILL LIKELY
BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE CASCADES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THE COOLER
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL WITH FROST LIKELY IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL OREGON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
BEGINNING THURSDAY FOR THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THE AREA WILL BE INCREASED
CLOUDS IN THE WASHINGTON PORTION OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM AND TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON
SATURDAY AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE GIVING US A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THE
FRONT WEAKENS BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SOME RAIN ALONG THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST ON SATURDAY AS THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS THEN CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS THEN WARM TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT REACHING THE LOWER
TO MID 50S WITH UPPER 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. PERRY

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE 5000 FEET
AGL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM A LOW IN NEVADA THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. WHILE SOME SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT IT
WILL REACH ANY OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 15 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND DROP BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 05Z.
AFTER 16Z TOMORROW, WINDS WILL START INCREASING AND REACH 10 TO 20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AFTER 20Z AT ALL TAF SITES. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  72  50  66 /  10  10  20  10
ALW  59  74  55  68 /  10  10  20  20
PSC  55  77  52  72 /  10   0  10  10
YKM  51  73  47  67 /   0   0  10   0
HRI  53  76  50  71 /  10   0  10  10
ELN  50  70  47  63 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  42  67  39  62 /  10   0  20   0
LGD  50  67  45  61 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  47  69  43  61 /  30  30  20  10
DLS  56  72  54  68 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/








000
FXUS66 KPDT 290426 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
920 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER NEVADA WAS PUMPING
MOISTURE OVER THE TOP AND INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. THUS FAR LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PCPN WAS REPORTED. HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS WERE
JUST TO OUR EAST THAT COULD RETROGRADE INTO THE BLUE/WALLOWS AS WELL
AS THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR CHANGES
TO CLOUD COVER THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 500 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY. 12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOVING NEVADA UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA INTO IDAHO
OVERNIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY OPENING UP INTO A WAVE ACROSS MONTANA.
NEXT PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GIVES THE UPPER LOW A GOOD PUSH LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE PACIFIC NW.  IT WILL LIKELY
BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE CASCADES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THE COOLER
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL WITH FROST LIKELY IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL OREGON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
BEGINNING THURSDAY FOR THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THE AREA WILL BE INCREASED
CLOUDS IN THE WASHINGTON PORTION OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM AND TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON
SATURDAY AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE GIVING US A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THE
FRONT WEAKENS BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SOME RAIN ALONG THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST ON SATURDAY AS THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS THEN CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS THEN WARM TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT REACHING THE LOWER
TO MID 50S WITH UPPER 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. PERRY

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE 5000 FEET
AGL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM A LOW IN NEVADA THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. WHILE SOME SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT IT
WILL REACH ANY OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 15 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND DROP BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 05Z.
AFTER 16Z TOMORROW, WINDS WILL START INCREASING AND REACH 10 TO 20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AFTER 20Z AT ALL TAF SITES. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  72  50  66 /  10  10  20  10
ALW  59  74  55  68 /  10  10  20  20
PSC  55  77  52  72 /  10   0  10  10
YKM  51  73  47  67 /   0   0  10   0
HRI  53  76  50  71 /  10   0  10  10
ELN  50  70  47  63 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  42  67  39  62 /  10   0  20   0
LGD  50  67  45  61 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  47  69  43  61 /  30  30  20  10
DLS  56  72  54  68 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/








000
FXUS66 KPDT 290426 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
920 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER NEVADA WAS PUMPING
MOISTURE OVER THE TOP AND INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. THUS FAR LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PCPN WAS REPORTED. HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS WERE
JUST TO OUR EAST THAT COULD RETROGRADE INTO THE BLUE/WALLOWS AS WELL
AS THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR CHANGES
TO CLOUD COVER THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 500 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY. 12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOVING NEVADA UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA INTO IDAHO
OVERNIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY OPENING UP INTO A WAVE ACROSS MONTANA.
NEXT PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GIVES THE UPPER LOW A GOOD PUSH LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE PACIFIC NW.  IT WILL LIKELY
BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE CASCADES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THE COOLER
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL WITH FROST LIKELY IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL OREGON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
BEGINNING THURSDAY FOR THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THE AREA WILL BE INCREASED
CLOUDS IN THE WASHINGTON PORTION OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM AND TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON
SATURDAY AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE GIVING US A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THE
FRONT WEAKENS BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SOME RAIN ALONG THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST ON SATURDAY AS THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS THEN CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS THEN WARM TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT REACHING THE LOWER
TO MID 50S WITH UPPER 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. PERRY

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE 5000 FEET
AGL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM A LOW IN NEVADA THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. WHILE SOME SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT IT
WILL REACH ANY OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 15 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND DROP BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 05Z.
AFTER 16Z TOMORROW, WINDS WILL START INCREASING AND REACH 10 TO 20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AFTER 20Z AT ALL TAF SITES. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  72  50  66 /  10  10  20  10
ALW  59  74  55  68 /  10  10  20  20
PSC  55  77  52  72 /  10   0  10  10
YKM  51  73  47  67 /   0   0  10   0
HRI  53  76  50  71 /  10   0  10  10
ELN  50  70  47  63 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  42  67  39  62 /  10   0  20   0
LGD  50  67  45  61 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  47  69  43  61 /  30  30  20  10
DLS  56  72  54  68 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/








000
FXUS66 KPDT 290426 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
920 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER NEVADA WAS PUMPING
MOISTURE OVER THE TOP AND INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. THUS FAR LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PCPN WAS REPORTED. HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS WERE
JUST TO OUR EAST THAT COULD RETROGRADE INTO THE BLUE/WALLOWS AS WELL
AS THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR CHANGES
TO CLOUD COVER THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 500 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY. 12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOVING NEVADA UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA INTO IDAHO
OVERNIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY OPENING UP INTO A WAVE ACROSS MONTANA.
NEXT PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GIVES THE UPPER LOW A GOOD PUSH LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE PACIFIC NW.  IT WILL LIKELY
BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE CASCADES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THE COOLER
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL WITH FROST LIKELY IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL OREGON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
BEGINNING THURSDAY FOR THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THE AREA WILL BE INCREASED
CLOUDS IN THE WASHINGTON PORTION OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM AND TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON
SATURDAY AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE GIVING US A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THE
FRONT WEAKENS BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SOME RAIN ALONG THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST ON SATURDAY AS THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS THEN CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS THEN WARM TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT REACHING THE LOWER
TO MID 50S WITH UPPER 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. PERRY

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE 5000 FEET
AGL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM A LOW IN NEVADA THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. WHILE SOME SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT IT
WILL REACH ANY OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 15 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND DROP BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 05Z.
AFTER 16Z TOMORROW, WINDS WILL START INCREASING AND REACH 10 TO 20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AFTER 20Z AT ALL TAF SITES. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  72  50  66 /  10  10  20  10
ALW  59  74  55  68 /  10  10  20  20
PSC  55  77  52  72 /  10   0  10  10
YKM  51  73  47  67 /   0   0  10   0
HRI  53  76  50  71 /  10   0  10  10
ELN  50  70  47  63 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  42  67  39  62 /  10   0  20   0
LGD  50  67  45  61 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  47  69  43  61 /  30  30  20  10
DLS  56  72  54  68 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/








000
FXUS66 KPQR 290354
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
854 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER NEVADA THIS
EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDINESS WRAPPING AROUND BACK TOWARD WESTERN
OREGON. A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST MONDAY
MORNING AND INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A PIECE OF THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND BRUSH
FAR NORTHWEST OREGON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY FOR SOME SHOWERS
IN COOL NORTHWEST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THEN DECREASE CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRING THE FIRST DUSTING
OF SNOW TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE AUTUMN WITH CHILLY NIGHTS
AND CRISP AFTERNOONS...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE WERE SOME CLOUDS THIS
EVENING ALONG THE CASCADES THAT CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE UPPER LOW IN NEVADA. IN ADDITION...AN
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WAS SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE
WASHINGTON ONTO THE OREGON COAST. OTHERWISE SKIES WERE REASONABLY
CLEAR...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AGAIN INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEAK FRONT NOW CROSSING 130W THAT
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO MOVE ONTO THE COAST MONDAY MORNING AND
INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PWS CONTINUE TO BE
FORECAST UP AROUND 1.25 INCHES BUT WITH RATHER MEAGER 850 MB INFLOW
THAT WILL LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LITTLE RAIN FROM
THIS FRONT...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST.

THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND FAR
NORTHWEST OREGON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY THAT WILL KEEP
SHOWERS GOING ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PORTLAND OR SO NORTHWARD...WITH
LESS COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER AS WELL WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WE COULD SEE A DUSTING
OF A LITTLE SNOW AT THE NORTHERN SKI RESORTS DOWN TO AROUND 6000 FEET
OR SO.

THE MODELS SHOW THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENING BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING SHOWERS. THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO NUDGE
IN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLEARING...LOOK FOR THE COOLEST
NIGHTTIME TEMPS OF THE FALL SO FAR TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S AT SOME LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO INCREASES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A
THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN OFFSHORE WINDS...DRY WEATHER...SUNNIER
SKIES...AND SLIGHT WARMING FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS WILL MOVE OVER WASHINGTON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THE EXTREME SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON. MODELS DIVERGE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT GENERALLY
EXPECT NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WEATHER WITH LOW MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND THROUGH SOME OF THE COASTAL GAPS IN THE MORNING AND
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES
MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAKENING PACIFIC FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR PREVAILING INLAND
TONIGHT AND WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
THOUGH VFR SHOULD CONTINUE WITH CIGS IN THE 4000-6000 FT RANGE.
CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
MONDAY EVENING. COASTAL AREAS ALSO VFR THIS EVENING WITH LOW MVFR TO
IFR STRATUS EXPANDING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD BRING A
MIX OF LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MONDAY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 10Z
MON. AFTER THAT LESS CERTAIN AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY BRING
ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS IN THE 11Z-16Z
TIME FRAME. APPROACHING FRONT TO BRING LOWERING CIGS BUT CIGS
EXPECTED IN THE 4000-6000 FT RANGE THROUGH 00Z TUE. CHANCES FOR MVFR
INCREASE AFTER 00Z TUE WITH CIGS MOST LIKELY IN THE 2000-3000 FT
RANGE IF THEY DEVELOP.
&&

.MARINE...DOMINANT NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO PREFRONTAL
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY POST
FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO HAVE SHORT PERIODS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE
IN A NEAR SHORE PREFRONTAL COASTAL JET THEN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER THE NEARSHORE COASTAL JET MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH WINDS INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA...IN THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.

SEAS NEAR 4 FT OVER ALL WATERS BEFORE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE WIND
WAVE INFLUENCED NEAR THE COASTAL JET MONDAY MORNING. A WEST SWELL
ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY BUILDING SEAS BACK TO
AROUND 8 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK. JBONK /MH
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 290354
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
854 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER NEVADA THIS
EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDINESS WRAPPING AROUND BACK TOWARD WESTERN
OREGON. A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST MONDAY
MORNING AND INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A PIECE OF THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND BRUSH
FAR NORTHWEST OREGON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY FOR SOME SHOWERS
IN COOL NORTHWEST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THEN DECREASE CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRING THE FIRST DUSTING
OF SNOW TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE AUTUMN WITH CHILLY NIGHTS
AND CRISP AFTERNOONS...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE WERE SOME CLOUDS THIS
EVENING ALONG THE CASCADES THAT CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE UPPER LOW IN NEVADA. IN ADDITION...AN
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WAS SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE
WASHINGTON ONTO THE OREGON COAST. OTHERWISE SKIES WERE REASONABLY
CLEAR...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AGAIN INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEAK FRONT NOW CROSSING 130W THAT
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO MOVE ONTO THE COAST MONDAY MORNING AND
INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PWS CONTINUE TO BE
FORECAST UP AROUND 1.25 INCHES BUT WITH RATHER MEAGER 850 MB INFLOW
THAT WILL LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LITTLE RAIN FROM
THIS FRONT...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST.

THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND FAR
NORTHWEST OREGON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY THAT WILL KEEP
SHOWERS GOING ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PORTLAND OR SO NORTHWARD...WITH
LESS COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER AS WELL WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WE COULD SEE A DUSTING
OF A LITTLE SNOW AT THE NORTHERN SKI RESORTS DOWN TO AROUND 6000 FEET
OR SO.

THE MODELS SHOW THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENING BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING SHOWERS. THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO NUDGE
IN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLEARING...LOOK FOR THE COOLEST
NIGHTTIME TEMPS OF THE FALL SO FAR TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S AT SOME LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO INCREASES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A
THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN OFFSHORE WINDS...DRY WEATHER...SUNNIER
SKIES...AND SLIGHT WARMING FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS WILL MOVE OVER WASHINGTON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THE EXTREME SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON. MODELS DIVERGE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT GENERALLY
EXPECT NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WEATHER WITH LOW MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND THROUGH SOME OF THE COASTAL GAPS IN THE MORNING AND
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES
MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAKENING PACIFIC FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR PREVAILING INLAND
TONIGHT AND WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
THOUGH VFR SHOULD CONTINUE WITH CIGS IN THE 4000-6000 FT RANGE.
CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
MONDAY EVENING. COASTAL AREAS ALSO VFR THIS EVENING WITH LOW MVFR TO
IFR STRATUS EXPANDING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD BRING A
MIX OF LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MONDAY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 10Z
MON. AFTER THAT LESS CERTAIN AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY BRING
ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS IN THE 11Z-16Z
TIME FRAME. APPROACHING FRONT TO BRING LOWERING CIGS BUT CIGS
EXPECTED IN THE 4000-6000 FT RANGE THROUGH 00Z TUE. CHANCES FOR MVFR
INCREASE AFTER 00Z TUE WITH CIGS MOST LIKELY IN THE 2000-3000 FT
RANGE IF THEY DEVELOP.
&&

.MARINE...DOMINANT NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO PREFRONTAL
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY POST
FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO HAVE SHORT PERIODS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE
IN A NEAR SHORE PREFRONTAL COASTAL JET THEN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER THE NEARSHORE COASTAL JET MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH WINDS INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA...IN THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.

SEAS NEAR 4 FT OVER ALL WATERS BEFORE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE WIND
WAVE INFLUENCED NEAR THE COASTAL JET MONDAY MORNING. A WEST SWELL
ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY BUILDING SEAS BACK TO
AROUND 8 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK. JBONK /MH
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 290354
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
854 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER NEVADA THIS
EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDINESS WRAPPING AROUND BACK TOWARD WESTERN
OREGON. A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST MONDAY
MORNING AND INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A PIECE OF THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND BRUSH
FAR NORTHWEST OREGON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY FOR SOME SHOWERS
IN COOL NORTHWEST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THEN DECREASE CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRING THE FIRST DUSTING
OF SNOW TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE AUTUMN WITH CHILLY NIGHTS
AND CRISP AFTERNOONS...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE WERE SOME CLOUDS THIS
EVENING ALONG THE CASCADES THAT CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE UPPER LOW IN NEVADA. IN ADDITION...AN
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WAS SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE
WASHINGTON ONTO THE OREGON COAST. OTHERWISE SKIES WERE REASONABLY
CLEAR...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AGAIN INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEAK FRONT NOW CROSSING 130W THAT
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO MOVE ONTO THE COAST MONDAY MORNING AND
INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PWS CONTINUE TO BE
FORECAST UP AROUND 1.25 INCHES BUT WITH RATHER MEAGER 850 MB INFLOW
THAT WILL LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LITTLE RAIN FROM
THIS FRONT...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST.

THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND FAR
NORTHWEST OREGON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY THAT WILL KEEP
SHOWERS GOING ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PORTLAND OR SO NORTHWARD...WITH
LESS COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER AS WELL WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WE COULD SEE A DUSTING
OF A LITTLE SNOW AT THE NORTHERN SKI RESORTS DOWN TO AROUND 6000 FEET
OR SO.

THE MODELS SHOW THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENING BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING SHOWERS. THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO NUDGE
IN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLEARING...LOOK FOR THE COOLEST
NIGHTTIME TEMPS OF THE FALL SO FAR TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S AT SOME LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO INCREASES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A
THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN OFFSHORE WINDS...DRY WEATHER...SUNNIER
SKIES...AND SLIGHT WARMING FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS WILL MOVE OVER WASHINGTON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THE EXTREME SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON. MODELS DIVERGE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT GENERALLY
EXPECT NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WEATHER WITH LOW MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND THROUGH SOME OF THE COASTAL GAPS IN THE MORNING AND
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES
MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAKENING PACIFIC FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR PREVAILING INLAND
TONIGHT AND WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
THOUGH VFR SHOULD CONTINUE WITH CIGS IN THE 4000-6000 FT RANGE.
CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
MONDAY EVENING. COASTAL AREAS ALSO VFR THIS EVENING WITH LOW MVFR TO
IFR STRATUS EXPANDING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD BRING A
MIX OF LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MONDAY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 10Z
MON. AFTER THAT LESS CERTAIN AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY BRING
ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS IN THE 11Z-16Z
TIME FRAME. APPROACHING FRONT TO BRING LOWERING CIGS BUT CIGS
EXPECTED IN THE 4000-6000 FT RANGE THROUGH 00Z TUE. CHANCES FOR MVFR
INCREASE AFTER 00Z TUE WITH CIGS MOST LIKELY IN THE 2000-3000 FT
RANGE IF THEY DEVELOP.
&&

.MARINE...DOMINANT NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO PREFRONTAL
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY POST
FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO HAVE SHORT PERIODS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE
IN A NEAR SHORE PREFRONTAL COASTAL JET THEN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER THE NEARSHORE COASTAL JET MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH WINDS INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA...IN THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.

SEAS NEAR 4 FT OVER ALL WATERS BEFORE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE WIND
WAVE INFLUENCED NEAR THE COASTAL JET MONDAY MORNING. A WEST SWELL
ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY BUILDING SEAS BACK TO
AROUND 8 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK. JBONK /MH
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 290354
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
854 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER NEVADA THIS
EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDINESS WRAPPING AROUND BACK TOWARD WESTERN
OREGON. A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST MONDAY
MORNING AND INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A PIECE OF THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND BRUSH
FAR NORTHWEST OREGON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY FOR SOME SHOWERS
IN COOL NORTHWEST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THEN DECREASE CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRING THE FIRST DUSTING
OF SNOW TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE AUTUMN WITH CHILLY NIGHTS
AND CRISP AFTERNOONS...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE WERE SOME CLOUDS THIS
EVENING ALONG THE CASCADES THAT CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE UPPER LOW IN NEVADA. IN ADDITION...AN
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WAS SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE
WASHINGTON ONTO THE OREGON COAST. OTHERWISE SKIES WERE REASONABLY
CLEAR...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AGAIN INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEAK FRONT NOW CROSSING 130W THAT
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO MOVE ONTO THE COAST MONDAY MORNING AND
INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PWS CONTINUE TO BE
FORECAST UP AROUND 1.25 INCHES BUT WITH RATHER MEAGER 850 MB INFLOW
THAT WILL LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LITTLE RAIN FROM
THIS FRONT...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST.

THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND FAR
NORTHWEST OREGON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY THAT WILL KEEP
SHOWERS GOING ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PORTLAND OR SO NORTHWARD...WITH
LESS COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER AS WELL WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WE COULD SEE A DUSTING
OF A LITTLE SNOW AT THE NORTHERN SKI RESORTS DOWN TO AROUND 6000 FEET
OR SO.

THE MODELS SHOW THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENING BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING SHOWERS. THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO NUDGE
IN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLEARING...LOOK FOR THE COOLEST
NIGHTTIME TEMPS OF THE FALL SO FAR TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S AT SOME LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO INCREASES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A
THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN OFFSHORE WINDS...DRY WEATHER...SUNNIER
SKIES...AND SLIGHT WARMING FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS WILL MOVE OVER WASHINGTON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THE EXTREME SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON. MODELS DIVERGE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT GENERALLY
EXPECT NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WEATHER WITH LOW MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND THROUGH SOME OF THE COASTAL GAPS IN THE MORNING AND
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES
MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAKENING PACIFIC FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR PREVAILING INLAND
TONIGHT AND WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
THOUGH VFR SHOULD CONTINUE WITH CIGS IN THE 4000-6000 FT RANGE.
CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
MONDAY EVENING. COASTAL AREAS ALSO VFR THIS EVENING WITH LOW MVFR TO
IFR STRATUS EXPANDING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD BRING A
MIX OF LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MONDAY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 10Z
MON. AFTER THAT LESS CERTAIN AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY BRING
ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS IN THE 11Z-16Z
TIME FRAME. APPROACHING FRONT TO BRING LOWERING CIGS BUT CIGS
EXPECTED IN THE 4000-6000 FT RANGE THROUGH 00Z TUE. CHANCES FOR MVFR
INCREASE AFTER 00Z TUE WITH CIGS MOST LIKELY IN THE 2000-3000 FT
RANGE IF THEY DEVELOP.
&&

.MARINE...DOMINANT NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO PREFRONTAL
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY POST
FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO HAVE SHORT PERIODS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE
IN A NEAR SHORE PREFRONTAL COASTAL JET THEN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER THE NEARSHORE COASTAL JET MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH WINDS INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA...IN THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.

SEAS NEAR 4 FT OVER ALL WATERS BEFORE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE WIND
WAVE INFLUENCED NEAR THE COASTAL JET MONDAY MORNING. A WEST SWELL
ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY BUILDING SEAS BACK TO
AROUND 8 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK. JBONK /MH
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&



000
FXUS66 KMFR 290347
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
847 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE CLOSE LOW PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO THE
RENO AREA, CLOUDS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THIS LOW INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON, MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES EASTWARD.
ELSEWHERE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE FORMING IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE BLANCO NORTH WITH THE SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL SHOWING COQUILLE
VALLEY FOG ALREADY STARTING TO FORM. THE LATEST MODEL CONTINUES TO
BRING THE NEXT FRONT ASHORE AROUND MID DAY WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
EAST OF THE CASCADES INTO THE KLAMATH BASIN BY MONDAY EVENING.
ASIDE FROM THE COAST AND THE UMPQUA BASIN WHERE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED..THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES
BUT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH.

CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS TREND AND NO UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED
THIS EVENING. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/00Z TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE OREGON
CASCADES, SISKIYOUS, AND MARBLE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MVFR AND IFR IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST MID TO LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAWN IFR TO
LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO DEVELOP, WITH THE CEILING REDUCTIONS MOST LIKELY ON
THE WEST SIDE AND VIS REDUCTIONS MORE LIKELY ON THE EAST SIDE DUE TO
RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES. ON MONDAY MVFR IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING ALONG THE COOS COAST AND IN THE
ROSEBURG AREA OF DOUGLAS COUNTY, WHILE INLAND AREAS BECOME VFR
MID-MORNING. A NEW AND FAIRLY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO KEEP
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE COAST ALL DAY, WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE VFR
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT SUN 28 SEP 2014... HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE TO BRING
SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH THE HIGH INLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A
COASTAL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RETURN TUESDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS BACK TO THE AREA. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER
CENTRAL NEVADA, PULLING CLOUDS AND SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND INTO
EASTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SO FAR, SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT. HOWEVER, DURING THE AFTERNOON THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT OF
AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THEN
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SLACK OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE
ALSO RETREATING TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE, AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE FEATURE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR BUMPING THE CLOSED LOW OUT OF
OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS ANOTHER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BUT IT IS MUCH WEAKER AND DOES NOT HAVE HE DEEP
CONVECTION TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT OUR BIG RAINMAKER LAST WEEK
HAD. THEREFORE, EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW TO BE RATHER
ANTI-CLIMATIC, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND
THE COASTAL RANGES, INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND OVER THE CASCADES.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE THE PROMINENT WEATHER IN THOSE AREAS, WHILE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN EFFECT OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE COOLER AIR, AS
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, AND LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING COULD BE THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR. WHILE FROST IS
NOT EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE, MANY LOCATIONS ON THE EAST SIDE WILL
MAKE RUNS TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK. HAVE KEPT AREAS OF FROST IN THE
FORECAST, BUT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA, AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, AND THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL RETURN
TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY
AIR RETURNS. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS RIDGE WILL
STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FOREST PERIOD. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF INCONSISTENCY REGARDING A POSSIBLE TROUGH
ATTEMPTING TO DIG INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF BRING IN THIS TROUGH A DIFFERENT STRENGTHS, AT DIFFERENT
TIMES, AND IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS WITH EACH RUN. A LOOK AT THE
HEMISPHERICAL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE INCONSISTENCIES ARE PERHAPS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY THE MODELS HAVE CONCERNING A FEW FEATURES
UPSTREAM OVER EASTERN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC. UNTIL THIS IRONS ITSELF
OUT, THERE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NO CONFIDENCE IN ANY SUCH TROUGH
ENTERING THE AREA, AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH HIGHER IN A
LONG-LIVED HIGH PRESSURE REGIME. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY, WITH DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS REMAINING THE RULE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
-BPN

AVIATION...FOR THE 29/00Z TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE OREGON
CASCADES, SISKIYOUS, AND MARBLE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MVFR AND IFR IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST MID TO LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAWN IFR TO
LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO DEVELOP, WITH THE CEILING REDUCTIONS MOST LIKELY ON
THE WEST SIDE AND VIS REDUCTIONS MORE LIKELY ON THE EAST SIDE DUE TO
RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES. ON MONDAY MVFR IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING ALONG THE COOS COAST AND IN THE
ROSEBURG AREA OF DOUGLAS COUNTY, WHILE INLAND AREAS BECOME VFR
MID-MORNING. A NEW AND FAIRLY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO KEEP
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE COAST ALL DAY, WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE VFR
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT SUN 28 SEP 2014...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
COMBINE TO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH THE HIGH
INLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A COASTAL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RETURN
TUESDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS BACK TO THE
AREA. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BTL







000
FXUS66 KMFR 290347
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
847 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE CLOSE LOW PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO THE
RENO AREA, CLOUDS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THIS LOW INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON, MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES EASTWARD.
ELSEWHERE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE FORMING IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE BLANCO NORTH WITH THE SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL SHOWING COQUILLE
VALLEY FOG ALREADY STARTING TO FORM. THE LATEST MODEL CONTINUES TO
BRING THE NEXT FRONT ASHORE AROUND MID DAY WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
EAST OF THE CASCADES INTO THE KLAMATH BASIN BY MONDAY EVENING.
ASIDE FROM THE COAST AND THE UMPQUA BASIN WHERE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED..THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES
BUT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH.

CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS TREND AND NO UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED
THIS EVENING. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/00Z TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE OREGON
CASCADES, SISKIYOUS, AND MARBLE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MVFR AND IFR IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST MID TO LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAWN IFR TO
LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO DEVELOP, WITH THE CEILING REDUCTIONS MOST LIKELY ON
THE WEST SIDE AND VIS REDUCTIONS MORE LIKELY ON THE EAST SIDE DUE TO
RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES. ON MONDAY MVFR IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING ALONG THE COOS COAST AND IN THE
ROSEBURG AREA OF DOUGLAS COUNTY, WHILE INLAND AREAS BECOME VFR
MID-MORNING. A NEW AND FAIRLY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO KEEP
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE COAST ALL DAY, WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE VFR
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT SUN 28 SEP 2014... HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE TO BRING
SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH THE HIGH INLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A
COASTAL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RETURN TUESDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS BACK TO THE AREA. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER
CENTRAL NEVADA, PULLING CLOUDS AND SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND INTO
EASTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SO FAR, SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT. HOWEVER, DURING THE AFTERNOON THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT OF
AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THEN
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SLACK OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE
ALSO RETREATING TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE, AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE FEATURE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR BUMPING THE CLOSED LOW OUT OF
OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS ANOTHER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BUT IT IS MUCH WEAKER AND DOES NOT HAVE HE DEEP
CONVECTION TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT OUR BIG RAINMAKER LAST WEEK
HAD. THEREFORE, EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW TO BE RATHER
ANTI-CLIMATIC, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND
THE COASTAL RANGES, INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND OVER THE CASCADES.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE THE PROMINENT WEATHER IN THOSE AREAS, WHILE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN EFFECT OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE COOLER AIR, AS
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, AND LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING COULD BE THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR. WHILE FROST IS
NOT EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE, MANY LOCATIONS ON THE EAST SIDE WILL
MAKE RUNS TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK. HAVE KEPT AREAS OF FROST IN THE
FORECAST, BUT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA, AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, AND THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL RETURN
TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY
AIR RETURNS. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS RIDGE WILL
STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FOREST PERIOD. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF INCONSISTENCY REGARDING A POSSIBLE TROUGH
ATTEMPTING TO DIG INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF BRING IN THIS TROUGH A DIFFERENT STRENGTHS, AT DIFFERENT
TIMES, AND IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS WITH EACH RUN. A LOOK AT THE
HEMISPHERICAL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE INCONSISTENCIES ARE PERHAPS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY THE MODELS HAVE CONCERNING A FEW FEATURES
UPSTREAM OVER EASTERN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC. UNTIL THIS IRONS ITSELF
OUT, THERE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NO CONFIDENCE IN ANY SUCH TROUGH
ENTERING THE AREA, AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH HIGHER IN A
LONG-LIVED HIGH PRESSURE REGIME. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY, WITH DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS REMAINING THE RULE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
-BPN

AVIATION...FOR THE 29/00Z TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE OREGON
CASCADES, SISKIYOUS, AND MARBLE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MVFR AND IFR IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST MID TO LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAWN IFR TO
LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO DEVELOP, WITH THE CEILING REDUCTIONS MOST LIKELY ON
THE WEST SIDE AND VIS REDUCTIONS MORE LIKELY ON THE EAST SIDE DUE TO
RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES. ON MONDAY MVFR IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING ALONG THE COOS COAST AND IN THE
ROSEBURG AREA OF DOUGLAS COUNTY, WHILE INLAND AREAS BECOME VFR
MID-MORNING. A NEW AND FAIRLY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO KEEP
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE COAST ALL DAY, WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE VFR
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT SUN 28 SEP 2014...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
COMBINE TO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH THE HIGH
INLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A COASTAL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RETURN
TUESDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS BACK TO THE
AREA. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BTL






000
FXUS65 KBOI 290315
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
915 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...A RAIN BAND MOVING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF
SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHEASTERN OREGON OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WERE ALSO EMBEDDED IN
THE RAIN BAND...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 84. THE 00Z SOUNDING
TAKEN AT BOISE INDICATED THAT THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WAS QUITE UNSTABLE AND THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST IS ON TRACK
AND NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AROUND 06Z IN SOUTHWEST
IDAHO...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 84. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BECOMING NUMEROUS AFTER 06Z FROM
KMOU TO KMYL...WEST TO KBKE AND KREO. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MVFR
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING DECREASING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE 10KTS OR LESS BECOMING NORTHWEST
UP TO 15KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET...SOUTHERLY
UP TO 20 KTS ON THE IDAHO SIDE AND NORTHWEST UP TO 20 KTS ON THE
OREGON SIDE THROUGH 12Z...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY UP TO 20KTS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA MONDAY.

&&



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM HAS STALLED OVER NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING IN AREAS
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER HAS PROMOTED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A ROME-MOUNTAIN HOME-
JEROME LINE. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS HAVE ENTERED THE CAMAS
PRAIRIE AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEP MOIST PLUME WHICH EXTENDS BACK TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE
MOIST PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND THEN PIVOT
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. QPF TOTALS OF UP TO A HALF INCH
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS...WITH UP TO AN INCH IN THE
MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA/NORTH PACIFIC WILL SHIFT
EAST AND ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...TRAILING SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A LITTLE MORE COOL AIR INTO
THE REGION AND USHERING IN A DRYING TREND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE WILL
BRING A SLOW WARMING TREND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SOLIDLY ABOVE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AT THIS POINT. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ABOUT 5 DEGREES/.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION.....TL
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....SP/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 290315
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
915 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...A RAIN BAND MOVING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF
SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHEASTERN OREGON OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WERE ALSO EMBEDDED IN
THE RAIN BAND...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 84. THE 00Z SOUNDING
TAKEN AT BOISE INDICATED THAT THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WAS QUITE UNSTABLE AND THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST IS ON TRACK
AND NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AROUND 06Z IN SOUTHWEST
IDAHO...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 84. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BECOMING NUMEROUS AFTER 06Z FROM
KMOU TO KMYL...WEST TO KBKE AND KREO. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MVFR
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING DECREASING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE 10KTS OR LESS BECOMING NORTHWEST
UP TO 15KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET...SOUTHERLY
UP TO 20 KTS ON THE IDAHO SIDE AND NORTHWEST UP TO 20 KTS ON THE
OREGON SIDE THROUGH 12Z...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY UP TO 20KTS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA MONDAY.

&&



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM HAS STALLED OVER NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING IN AREAS
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER HAS PROMOTED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A ROME-MOUNTAIN HOME-
JEROME LINE. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS HAVE ENTERED THE CAMAS
PRAIRIE AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEP MOIST PLUME WHICH EXTENDS BACK TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE
MOIST PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND THEN PIVOT
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. QPF TOTALS OF UP TO A HALF INCH
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS...WITH UP TO AN INCH IN THE
MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA/NORTH PACIFIC WILL SHIFT
EAST AND ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...TRAILING SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A LITTLE MORE COOL AIR INTO
THE REGION AND USHERING IN A DRYING TREND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE WILL
BRING A SLOW WARMING TREND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SOLIDLY ABOVE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AT THIS POINT. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ABOUT 5 DEGREES/.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION.....TL
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....SP/AB



000
FXUS66 KMFR 290009
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
509 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER
CENTRAL NEVADA, PULLING CLOUDS AND SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND INTO
EASTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SO FAR, SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT. HOWEVER, DURING THE AFTERNOON THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT OF
AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THEN
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SLACK OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE
ALSO RETREATING TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE, AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE FEATURE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR BUMPING THE CLOSED LOW OUT OF
OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS ANOTHER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BUT IT IS MUCH WEAKER AND DOES NOT HAVE HE DEEP
CONVECTION TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT OUR BIG RAINMAKER LAST WEEK
HAD. THEREFORE, EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW TO BE RATHER
ANTI-CLIMATIC, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND
THE COASTAL RANGES, INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND OVER THE CASCADES.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE THE PROMINENT WEATHER IN THOSE AREAS, WHILE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN EFFECT OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE COOLER AIR, AS
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, AND LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING COULD BE THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR. WHILE FROST IS
NOT EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE, MANY LOCATIONS ON THE EAST SIDE WILL
MAKE RUNS TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK. HAVE KEPT AREAS OF FROST IN THE
FORECAST, BUT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA, AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, AND THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL RETURN
TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY
AIR RETURNS. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS RIDGE WILL
STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FOREST PERIOD. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF INCONSISTENCY REGARDING A POSSIBLE TROUGH
ATTEMPTING TO DIG INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF BRING IN THIS TROUGH A DIFFERENT STRENGTHS, AT DIFFERENT
TIMES, AND IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS WITH EACH RUN. A LOOK AT THE
HEMISPHERICAL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE INCONSISTENCIES ARE PERHAPS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY THE MODELS HAVE CONCERNING A FEW FEATURES
UPSTREAM OVER EASTERN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC. UNTIL THIS IRONS ITSELF
OUT, THERE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NO CONFIDENCE IN ANY SUCH TROUGH
ENTERING THE AREA, AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH HIGHER IN A
LONG-LIVED HIGH PRESSURE REGIME. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY, WITH DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS REMAINING THE RULE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
-BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/00Z TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE OREGON
CASCADES, SISKIYOUS, AND MARBLE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MVFR AND IFR IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST MID TO LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAWN IFR TO
LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO DEVELOP, WITH THE CEILING REDUCTIONS MOST LIKELY ON
THE WEST SIDE AND VIS REDUCTIONS MORE LIKELY ON THE EAST SIDE DUE TO
RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES. ON MONDAY MVFR IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING ALONG THE COOS COAST AND IN THE
ROSEBURG AREA OF DOUGLAS COUNTY, WHILE INLAND AREAS BECOME VFR
MID-MORNING. A NEW AND FAIRLY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO KEEP
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE COAST ALL DAY, WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE VFR
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT SUN 28 SEP 2014...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
COMBINE TO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH THE HIGH
INLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A COASTAL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RETURN
TUESDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS BACK TO THE
AREA. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
  PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BPN/BTL










000
FXUS66 KMFR 290009
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
509 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER
CENTRAL NEVADA, PULLING CLOUDS AND SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND INTO
EASTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SO FAR, SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT. HOWEVER, DURING THE AFTERNOON THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT OF
AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THEN
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SLACK OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE
ALSO RETREATING TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE, AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE FEATURE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR BUMPING THE CLOSED LOW OUT OF
OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS ANOTHER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BUT IT IS MUCH WEAKER AND DOES NOT HAVE HE DEEP
CONVECTION TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT OUR BIG RAINMAKER LAST WEEK
HAD. THEREFORE, EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW TO BE RATHER
ANTI-CLIMATIC, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND
THE COASTAL RANGES, INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND OVER THE CASCADES.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE THE PROMINENT WEATHER IN THOSE AREAS, WHILE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN EFFECT OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE COOLER AIR, AS
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, AND LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING COULD BE THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR. WHILE FROST IS
NOT EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE, MANY LOCATIONS ON THE EAST SIDE WILL
MAKE RUNS TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK. HAVE KEPT AREAS OF FROST IN THE
FORECAST, BUT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA, AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, AND THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL RETURN
TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY
AIR RETURNS. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS RIDGE WILL
STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FOREST PERIOD. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF INCONSISTENCY REGARDING A POSSIBLE TROUGH
ATTEMPTING TO DIG INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF BRING IN THIS TROUGH A DIFFERENT STRENGTHS, AT DIFFERENT
TIMES, AND IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS WITH EACH RUN. A LOOK AT THE
HEMISPHERICAL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE INCONSISTENCIES ARE PERHAPS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY THE MODELS HAVE CONCERNING A FEW FEATURES
UPSTREAM OVER EASTERN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC. UNTIL THIS IRONS ITSELF
OUT, THERE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NO CONFIDENCE IN ANY SUCH TROUGH
ENTERING THE AREA, AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH HIGHER IN A
LONG-LIVED HIGH PRESSURE REGIME. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY, WITH DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS REMAINING THE RULE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
-BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/00Z TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE OREGON
CASCADES, SISKIYOUS, AND MARBLE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MVFR AND IFR IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST MID TO LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAWN IFR TO
LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO DEVELOP, WITH THE CEILING REDUCTIONS MOST LIKELY ON
THE WEST SIDE AND VIS REDUCTIONS MORE LIKELY ON THE EAST SIDE DUE TO
RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES. ON MONDAY MVFR IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING ALONG THE COOS COAST AND IN THE
ROSEBURG AREA OF DOUGLAS COUNTY, WHILE INLAND AREAS BECOME VFR
MID-MORNING. A NEW AND FAIRLY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO KEEP
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE COAST ALL DAY, WHILE INLAND AREAS SEE VFR
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT SUN 28 SEP 2014...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
COMBINE TO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH THE HIGH
INLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A COASTAL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RETURN
TUESDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS BACK TO THE
AREA. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
  PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BPN/BTL









000
FXUS66 KPDT 290001 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
500 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY. 12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOVING NEVADA UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA INTO IDAHO
OVERNIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY OPENING UP INTO A WAVE ACROSS MONTANA.
NEXT PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GIVES THE UPPER LOW A GOOD PUSH LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE PACIFIC NW.  IT WILL LIKELY
BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE CASCADES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THE COOLER
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL WITH FROST LIKELY IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL OREGON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
BEGINNING THURSDAY FOR THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THE AREA WILL BE INCREASED
CLOUDS IN THE WASHINGTON PORTION OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM AND TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON
SATURDAY AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE GIVING US A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THE
FRONT WEAKENS BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SOME RAIN ALONG THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST ON SATURDAY AS THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS THEN CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS THEN WARM TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT REACHING THE LOWER
TO MID 50S WITH UPPER 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE 5000 FEET
AGL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM A LOW IN NEVADA THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. WHILE SOME SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT IT
WILL REACH ANY OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 15 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND DROP BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 05Z.
AFTER 16Z TOMORROW, WINDS WILL START INCREASING AND REACH 10 TO 20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AFTER 20Z AT ALL TAF SITES. PERRY



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  72  50  66 /  10  10  20  10
ALW  59  74  55  68 /  10  10  20  20
PSC  55  77  52  72 /  10   0  10  10
YKM  51  73  47  67 /   0   0  10   0
HRI  53  76  50  71 /  10   0  10  10
ELN  50  70  47  63 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  42  67  39  62 /  10   0  20   0
LGD  50  67  45  61 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  47  69  43  61 /  30  30  20  10
DLS  56  72  54  68 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

79/83/83






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