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000
FXUS66 KPQR 310952
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
246 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS..STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD TODAY. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST CONTAINING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE
EVENING HOURS FOR THOSE TRICK OR TREATING. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN SPREAD
BACK ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY. ANOTHER WET AND BREEZY STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SATELLITE AND RADAR COMPOSITES
SHOW AN ELONGATED FRONT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO WESTERN OREGON
AND WASHINGTON. COASTAL LOCATIONS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN A THIRD AND A HALF INCH OF
RAIN SO FAR. VALLEY LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE CASCADES ARE PUSHING ONE
INCH...WHILE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE
CASCADES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL UPSTREAM
ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON COAST THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF STEADY RAIN
SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF
RAIN THIS MORNING.

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 130W...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES OF -26C TO -30C. THIS COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MODIFY A BIT
AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD OVER THE AREA TODAY. NONETHELESS...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES TODAY...EXPECT BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TO
DEVELOP. SHORTLY THEREAFTER...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BUBBLE UP ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.
SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD TAPER QUICKLY AS SUNSET APPROACHES
THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MOST TRICK OR TREATERS STAYING
DRY. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS
LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WHERE THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEARBY WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY BUBBLE UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT IN GENERAL...THE DAY AS A WHOLE APPEARS
RELATIVELY DRY.

A WARM FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO OUR
NORTHERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...OR MORE LIKELY...SUNDAY. LIGHT
RAIN MAY LINGER WELL INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...BEFORE THE NEXT WET STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION LATE
MONDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE
A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD BOUT OF RAIN TO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
WILL RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...WHILE QPF
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE MODEST TOWARDS LANE COUNTY. FLASHIER
RIVER SYSTEMS LIKE THE GRAYS RIVER MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT. POPS WERE PUSHED INTO THE LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL MENTIONS DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...HIGH
WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A LARGE THREAT AT THIS POINT. BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MAY DEVELOP FOR A DAY OR SO BEFORE THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK. NONETHELESS...HIGH END CHANCE TO LOW
END LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED THE IN EXTENDED GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PATTERN AND CLIMO. /NEUMAN

&&

.AVIATION...STALLED FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE CASCADES
LATER THIS MORNING...WITH SHOWERS FILLING IN BEHIND IT. A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY TODAY...WITH LOWER
CIGS IN SHOWERS. COULD SEE ANOTHER MORNING WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CIGS AROUND SLE AND EUG. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT
OVERALL CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE WITH A MIX OF LOW END VFR/HIGH END
MVFR EXPECTED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CIGS AFTER 18-20Z TODAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
/27

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 10 KT OR LESS BEHIND THE FRONT.
WITH SWELL CONTINUING TO DECREASE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BENIGN
OUTSIDE OF THE COLUMBIA BAR THIS MORNING BEFORE WNW SWELL
INCREASES SEAS TO AT LEAST NEAR SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. RAISED SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...BUT SEAS FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND BORDERLINE
FOR SCA SO WILL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT REASSESS AND ISSUE IF
NECESSARY. COULD SEE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ASSOCIATED LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. WINDS OVERALL WILL SHIFT
SOUTHERLY LATER TODAY AND INCREASE A BIT WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 20
KT. NEXT ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOWEN/27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
    AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
   WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 10 AM
     THIS MORNING TO 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN FROM
     10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310952
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
246 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS..STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD TODAY. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST CONTAINING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE
EVENING HOURS FOR THOSE TRICK OR TREATING. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN SPREAD
BACK ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY. ANOTHER WET AND BREEZY STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SATELLITE AND RADAR COMPOSITES
SHOW AN ELONGATED FRONT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO WESTERN OREGON
AND WASHINGTON. COASTAL LOCATIONS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN A THIRD AND A HALF INCH OF
RAIN SO FAR. VALLEY LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE CASCADES ARE PUSHING ONE
INCH...WHILE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE
CASCADES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL UPSTREAM
ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON COAST THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF STEADY RAIN
SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF
RAIN THIS MORNING.

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 130W...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES OF -26C TO -30C. THIS COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MODIFY A BIT
AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD OVER THE AREA TODAY. NONETHELESS...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES TODAY...EXPECT BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TO
DEVELOP. SHORTLY THEREAFTER...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BUBBLE UP ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.
SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD TAPER QUICKLY AS SUNSET APPROACHES
THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MOST TRICK OR TREATERS STAYING
DRY. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS
LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WHERE THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEARBY WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY BUBBLE UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT IN GENERAL...THE DAY AS A WHOLE APPEARS
RELATIVELY DRY.

A WARM FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO OUR
NORTHERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...OR MORE LIKELY...SUNDAY. LIGHT
RAIN MAY LINGER WELL INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...BEFORE THE NEXT WET STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION LATE
MONDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE
A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD BOUT OF RAIN TO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
WILL RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...WHILE QPF
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE MODEST TOWARDS LANE COUNTY. FLASHIER
RIVER SYSTEMS LIKE THE GRAYS RIVER MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT. POPS WERE PUSHED INTO THE LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL MENTIONS DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...HIGH
WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A LARGE THREAT AT THIS POINT. BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MAY DEVELOP FOR A DAY OR SO BEFORE THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK. NONETHELESS...HIGH END CHANCE TO LOW
END LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED THE IN EXTENDED GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PATTERN AND CLIMO. /NEUMAN

&&

.AVIATION...STALLED FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE CASCADES
LATER THIS MORNING...WITH SHOWERS FILLING IN BEHIND IT. A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY TODAY...WITH LOWER
CIGS IN SHOWERS. COULD SEE ANOTHER MORNING WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CIGS AROUND SLE AND EUG. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT
OVERALL CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE WITH A MIX OF LOW END VFR/HIGH END
MVFR EXPECTED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CIGS AFTER 18-20Z TODAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
/27

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 10 KT OR LESS BEHIND THE FRONT.
WITH SWELL CONTINUING TO DECREASE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BENIGN
OUTSIDE OF THE COLUMBIA BAR THIS MORNING BEFORE WNW SWELL
INCREASES SEAS TO AT LEAST NEAR SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. RAISED SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...BUT SEAS FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND BORDERLINE
FOR SCA SO WILL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT REASSESS AND ISSUE IF
NECESSARY. COULD SEE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ASSOCIATED LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. WINDS OVERALL WILL SHIFT
SOUTHERLY LATER TODAY AND INCREASE A BIT WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 20
KT. NEXT ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOWEN/27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
    AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
   WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 10 AM
     THIS MORNING TO 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN FROM
     10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 310922
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
322 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BIG CHANGES IN STORE THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FROM MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY...TO SHOWERY...COOL...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. AN
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WHILE A
HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
OUR AREA IS SITUATED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ENCOMPASSING SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THIS
MORNING. A FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION RESIDES TO OUR
WEST...EXTENDING S-N ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OREGON. THIS
FRONTAL BAND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH SHOWERS SPREADING
INTO SE OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SW IDAHO LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN THE DRY SW FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY. A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM /SURFACE-ALOFT/ WILL
DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHERN IDAHO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN SW IDAHO WHILE
CONTINUING IN SE OREGON ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN NORTHERN NEVADA...AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO S-CENTRAL IDAHO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL INDUCE A TIGHT NW-SE ACROSS SE OREGON WHERE IT WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST QPF
TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE STEENS MOUNTAIN OF SE
OREGON WHERE THE AMOUNTS EXCEED AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES /EXCEPT 6
INCHES OR MORE IN THE STEENS/ ABOVE 5000 FEET...WITH THE BULK OF
THE SNOW OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN AND COLDER SIDE OF THE LOW.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FOR
MOST OF OUR CWA BY SUNDAY EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TRANSPORTS
MORE MOISTURE INLAND STARTING MONDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY AS MODELS FALL OUT OF
PHASE... BUT SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS. A WARMING
TREND WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OREGON
FROM THE WEST...BECOMING WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN EASTERN OREGON
BEFORE CROSSING INTO IDAHO ON SATURDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 5000 FT MSL BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 5-15 KTS BECOMING
WEST 15-25 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO
25 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPDT 310843
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
143 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING OFF
THE COAST CAUSING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY INTO THE CASCADES AT THIS TIME. RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING OVER
THE EAST SLOPES AND INTO THE WESTERN YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS.
ELSEWHERE THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS BUT IT IS DRY FOR THE MOST PART.
AN UPPER LEVEL JET IS PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS WHY IT IS
MOVING SO SLOWLY. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
BY 00Z THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN IT WILL GET HUNG UP OVER THE BLUES AS
A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND HIGHER MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE
BLUES...WALLOWA AND ELKHORN MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
DROP TO AROUND 4500 FEET BY 00Z SUNDAY AND THEN THEY WILL BE NEARLY
STEADY AFTER THAT. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4500 FEET FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
WITH PERHAPS A FEW INCHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND THEN WILL COOL TO
ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
BE LOCALLY BREEZY AT TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT OVER NORTH
CENTRAL OREGON...OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN OFF THE OR/WA COAST AND PROVIDE
A MORE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK.  THE BEST BREAK
IN PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY.  MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES WILL STILL HOLD ONTO A CHANCE TO LIKELY
SHOWERS ALONG THE CREST.  EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES.  WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...MODELS DO NOT ANTICIPATE SNOW LEVELS TO FALL BELOW
6000 FT. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....06Z TAFS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
STEADY RAIN OVER CENTRAL OREGON/WASHINGTON WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS MAINLY
5-15KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  40  51  36 /  70  60  50  10
ALW  57  44  51  39 /  70  60  50  20
PSC  57  42  55  37 /  60  50  30  10
YKM  54  36  54  34 /  70  20  10  10
HRI  56  40  55  37 /  60  50  30  10
ELN  51  36  50  33 /  70  20  10  10
RDM  50  31  48  28 /  80  60  10  10
LGD  58  41  46  34 /  50  70  70  30
GCD  56  38  46  33 /  60  70  60  30
DLS  56  42  54  41 /  80  20  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/89/89









000
FXUS66 KPDT 310538
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES ARE CLOUDY
ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON. RAIN HAS BEEN FOCUSED MOSTLY ALONG THE
CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THIS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST WITH THE FRONT. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS IDAHO
INTO MONTANA ON SATURDAY. A LARGE PRECIP SHIELD WILL DEVELOP AND
KEEP RAIN FALLING OVER NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON
INTO SATURDAY. COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MEAN SNOW
FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY THE WALLOWA AND BLUES. CLOUD
COVER AND A COLDER AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. HAVE ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND HIGH
DEW POINTS INDICATE FOG COVERAGE WILL INCREASE. 94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STEADY RAIN OVER CENTRAL
OREGON/WASHINGTON WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW
CEILINGS AND FOG WILL CREATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS MAINLY 5-15KT.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 225 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MOVED
ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING TAKING MUCH OF THE RAIN
WITH IT EXCEPT ALONG THE WA CASCADES. THE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THIS REGION UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TWO STATE AREA
TOMORROW. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ARRIVING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD INTO THE BLUE/WALLOWAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS THIS
AREA INTO SATURDAY. AS THE SHOWERS DRIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION SOME
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO OUR ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

BREEZY WEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
MEANWHILE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS KICK IN
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
REGION IN THE WAKE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED
INTO IDAHO/MONTANA BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST MAKING
LANDFALL OVERNIGHT MONDAY. THE WARM FRONT BEGINS SPREADING RAIN EAST
OF THE CASCADES MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN MAKING AN ENTRANCE IN
CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT THE WARM FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS FORECAST AREA BRINGING
RAIN LIKELY AREAWIDE. THE WARM FRONT PERSISTS OVER REGION DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY, WHICH KEEPS HIGH POPS OVER MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM
AIR BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN TO MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS FORECAST ON TUESDAY FOR MORE RAIN. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CWA FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  58  40  51 /  10  70  70  20
ALW  50  60  44  53 /  10  70  70  30
PSC  48  60  42  56 /  10  60  60  10
YKM  46  57  36  55 /  70  70  20  10
HRI  46  59  40  56 /  10  60  60  10
ELN  45  54  36  51 /  80  70  20  10
RDM  43  53  31  48 /  40  80  50  10
LGD  46  60  41  46 /  10  50  70  70
GCD  44  58  38  47 /  10  60  70  60
DLS  50  58  42  55 /  80  80  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94






000
FXUS66 KPQR 310415
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
915 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS..STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
PUSHED INLAND THIS EVENING. THE STALLED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE CASCADES. THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE CASCADES BY LATE MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REMAINING FRI
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR THOSE TRICK OR TREATING. SOME
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE LIGHT RAIN SPREADS BACK
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WET SYSTEM ON TAP
FOR LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM SPREADING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE PAC
NW. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THE
SE SIDE OF THE LOW IS SLOWING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PIVOTING IT
FROM A NE-SW ORIENTATION TO A N-S ORIENTATION. A BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SPREAD ONTO THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS PUSHED SLOWLY INLAND THIS EVENING. THERE IS
STILL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THIS SYSTEM...WITH AMSU
DERIVED SATELLITE SHOWING 1 TO 1.2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN OREGON...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT APPEARS
TO HAVE WEAKENED AND LOST SOME DEFINITION AS IT PASSED OVER THE
COAST RANGE. THE STEADIER FRONTAL RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST AND IS NOW
FOCUSED OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CASCADES...WHILE THERE IS A
BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION BAND SHOWING UP BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTHERN COAST RANGE. ANOTHER INTERESTING
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING WAS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...EXTENDING INTO LANE
COUNTY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE SHORT TERM RAP MODEL SHOWED A STRONG
BAND OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS REGION...WHICH WOULD SEEM TO
EXPLAIN THE THUNDER. TRACKING THE RAP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT
APPEARS THAT THE FORCING WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDED THUNDER TO THE FCST EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR
THE CASCADES SOUTH OF MT HOOD...WITH THE THREAT ENDING AFTER 06Z.

THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT MAINLY TO THE
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS CONTINUING
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AND MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BY MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW. BEHIND THE FRONT...A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THIS
POST FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE AS THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BASED ON
THE INSTABILITY APPARENT ON SATELLITE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER
LOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER NEAR THE COAST...OR
OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MOVING INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  AS THE COLDER AIR
MASS SETS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE 4500
TO 5000 FT RANGE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH MOTORISTS
TRAVELING OVER THE HIGHER CASCADE PASSES INCLUDING SANTIAM AND
WILLAMETTE SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ENOUGH SNOW
TO IMPACT TRAVEL LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SLIDES INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY AND
SHOWERS END AS SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY CLIP THE REGION. MORE STEADY RAIN
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES.  PYLE/CULLEN
&&


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION BY MONDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM APPROACHING...BUT
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DO REMAIN IN TERMS OF THE LOCATION AND
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. SOME INDICATION THAT SOME SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE PATTERN DOES
APPEAR TO STAY A BIT PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE. THEREFORE...INCREASED
POPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER WET WEEK APPEARS IN STORE. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE SOMEWHAT STALLED AND IS
PETERING OUT OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS EVENING. RAIN IS
BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE WITH MVFR TO VFR
CIGS. WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AT THE COAST...COULD SEE SOME MVFR VIS
DEVELOP THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. MORE UNCERTAINTY INLAND
DUE TO SEEMINGLY FIZZLING FRONT. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AND IF MOISTURE
LINGERS...COULD SEE ANOTHER MORNING WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR CIGS
AROUND SLE AND EUG. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...WITH FRONT NOT MAKING A CLEAN SWEEP THROUGH
THE AREA...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS DOMINANT
BY ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 10 KT OR LESS BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS EVENING. WITH SWELL CONTINUING TO DECREASE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BENIGN OUTSIDE OF THE COLUMBIA BAR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE WNW SWELL INCREASES SEAS TO AT LEAST NEAR SCA
CRITERIA FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAISED SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT SEAS FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AND BORDERLINE FOR SCA SO WILL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT
REASSESS AND ISSUE IF NECESSARY. COULD SEE A COUPLE OF STORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
OVERALL WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE A BIT WITH
GUSTS LESS THAN 20 KT. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 1 AM
    PDT FRIDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 10 AM TO
    2 PM PDT FRIDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMFR 310352
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
852 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...AM PLANNING TO DO ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING. THE
LAST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON MOVE OUT OF JACKSON COUNTY AND
THEN BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES OF EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THESE
CELLS HAVE BEEN INTERESTING BECAUSE WHILE THEY ARE NOT TALL, THEY
HAVE INTENSE CORES AND SUSTAINED ROTATION COUPLETS ALOFT. THERE IS
PROBABLY SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THESE CELLS AND BRIEF INTENSE
RAINFALL, BUT ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THEY PASS.
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO POP UP FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL, BUT AT THE
MOMENT, IT IS MUCH WEAKER THAN THE NORTHERN CELLS. RIGHT NOW THE
FORECAST IS OK, BUT WILL WATCH HOW THIS EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT
HOUR, AND THEN LIKELY UPDATE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/

UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STRATIFORM RAIN FIELD AND LIES IN A LINE FROM ROUGHLY NORTHWEST
SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTH THROUGH WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY INTO EASTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY. 31/00Z SOUNDING FROM MEDFORD SHOWED LITTLE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY, BUT THERE IS INSTABILITY ALOFT (ABOVE ROUGHLY
700 MILLIBARS). LATEST RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE SHOW AN INSTABILITY
AXIS IN THIS AREA, AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE PRETTY HEFTY
WITH 50-60DBZ CORES. THE CORES ARE TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 15,000
FT, WHICH IS ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL, SO I CAN`T RULE OUT SMALL
HAIL IN THESE CELLS. HOWEVER, CELL TOPS ARE ONLY REACHING TO
AROUND 20,000 FT, SO AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANYTHING MORE THAN
THAT.

SO FAR, WE`VE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHERN JACKSON
AND EASTERN DOUGLAS WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER JET AXIS. THERE
IS REALLY NO REASON TO THINK THIS WON`T CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS
AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE CASCADES. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THINGS
STABILIZING THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID AN UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE EVENING. WE WILL RE-EVALUATE AT THAT
POINT. -WRIGHT

AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST LATER
THIS EVENING THEN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN VALLEY MVFR AND LOCAL IFR AS IT MOVES INLAND
TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE UNTIL AT
LEAST 6Z FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. THIS INCLUDES KMFR. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION. HOWEVER TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. -PETRUCELLI

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SPREADING OVER THE COAST. RAIN HAS
ALREADY STARTED FALLING AT THE COAST WITH QUAIL PRAIRIE IN CURRY
COUNTY RECEIVING A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE PAST HOUR. RAIN AND
CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES FURTHER
INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WINDS WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. SHASTA VALLEY AND THE EAST SIDE WILL STILL
SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT NOTHING LIKE WAS OBSERVED THIS PAST
WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS RAIN IS CONCERNED, THE STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WEST SIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
MAKING IT TO THE EAST SIDE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A SHOWERY PATTERN WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE WEST
SIDE DURING THE PRIME TRICK-OR-TREATING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN DRY DURING THE EVENING, BUT A SHOWER HERE OR THERE
CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM SOME INLAND AREAS
WEST OF THE CASCADES CONSIDERING FAIRLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY,
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
NO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL AFFECT THE AREA. FROST
IS A CONCERN FOR SOME WEST SIDE VALLEYS, SO STAY TUNED FOR
MORE INFORMATION AS IT APPROACHES.

LONG TERM...
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3RD THROUGH THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6TH, 2014.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AT JET STREAM LEVEL WILL BECOME
PREDOMINATELY WEST. THIS WILL INDUCE LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION AND SOME WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD BOTH CLIMATOLOGY UNDER THIS
PATTERN AND REFORECAST ANALOG PROBABILITIES FROM ESRL`S NCEP GEFS
REFORECAST PAGE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RAIN LIKELY ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LESSER
PROBABILITIES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. DIURNAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO CLOUD COVER, WITH
MILDER THAN NORMAL NIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTH RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THEREAFTER, OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH ON WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER 8TH-9TH, WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY
MOVING SOUTH OF US INTO CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, A LOOK AT ENSEMBLE
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAEFS, GFS, ECMWF, AND CFSV2 ALL INDICATE
THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK WITH A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE STORM TRACK. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT THU OCT 31 2014... A COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWEST OF THE
WATERS ON SATURDAY THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING ANOTHER LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 310352
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
852 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...AM PLANNING TO DO ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING. THE
LAST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON MOVE OUT OF JACKSON COUNTY AND
THEN BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES OF EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THESE
CELLS HAVE BEEN INTERESTING BECAUSE WHILE THEY ARE NOT TALL, THEY
HAVE INTENSE CORES AND SUSTAINED ROTATION COUPLETS ALOFT. THERE IS
PROBABLY SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THESE CELLS AND BRIEF INTENSE
RAINFALL, BUT ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THEY PASS.
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO POP UP FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL, BUT AT THE
MOMENT, IT IS MUCH WEAKER THAN THE NORTHERN CELLS. RIGHT NOW THE
FORECAST IS OK, BUT WILL WATCH HOW THIS EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT
HOUR, AND THEN LIKELY UPDATE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/

UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STRATIFORM RAIN FIELD AND LIES IN A LINE FROM ROUGHLY NORTHWEST
SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTH THROUGH WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY INTO EASTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY. 31/00Z SOUNDING FROM MEDFORD SHOWED LITTLE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY, BUT THERE IS INSTABILITY ALOFT (ABOVE ROUGHLY
700 MILLIBARS). LATEST RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE SHOW AN INSTABILITY
AXIS IN THIS AREA, AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE PRETTY HEFTY
WITH 50-60DBZ CORES. THE CORES ARE TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 15,000
FT, WHICH IS ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL, SO I CAN`T RULE OUT SMALL
HAIL IN THESE CELLS. HOWEVER, CELL TOPS ARE ONLY REACHING TO
AROUND 20,000 FT, SO AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANYTHING MORE THAN
THAT.

SO FAR, WE`VE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHERN JACKSON
AND EASTERN DOUGLAS WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER JET AXIS. THERE
IS REALLY NO REASON TO THINK THIS WON`T CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS
AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE CASCADES. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THINGS
STABILIZING THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID AN UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE EVENING. WE WILL RE-EVALUATE AT THAT
POINT. -WRIGHT

AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST LATER
THIS EVENING THEN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN VALLEY MVFR AND LOCAL IFR AS IT MOVES INLAND
TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE UNTIL AT
LEAST 6Z FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. THIS INCLUDES KMFR. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION. HOWEVER TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. -PETRUCELLI

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SPREADING OVER THE COAST. RAIN HAS
ALREADY STARTED FALLING AT THE COAST WITH QUAIL PRAIRIE IN CURRY
COUNTY RECEIVING A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE PAST HOUR. RAIN AND
CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES FURTHER
INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WINDS WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. SHASTA VALLEY AND THE EAST SIDE WILL STILL
SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT NOTHING LIKE WAS OBSERVED THIS PAST
WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS RAIN IS CONCERNED, THE STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WEST SIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
MAKING IT TO THE EAST SIDE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A SHOWERY PATTERN WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE WEST
SIDE DURING THE PRIME TRICK-OR-TREATING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN DRY DURING THE EVENING, BUT A SHOWER HERE OR THERE
CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM SOME INLAND AREAS
WEST OF THE CASCADES CONSIDERING FAIRLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY,
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
NO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL AFFECT THE AREA. FROST
IS A CONCERN FOR SOME WEST SIDE VALLEYS, SO STAY TUNED FOR
MORE INFORMATION AS IT APPROACHES.

LONG TERM...
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3RD THROUGH THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6TH, 2014.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AT JET STREAM LEVEL WILL BECOME
PREDOMINATELY WEST. THIS WILL INDUCE LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION AND SOME WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD BOTH CLIMATOLOGY UNDER THIS
PATTERN AND REFORECAST ANALOG PROBABILITIES FROM ESRL`S NCEP GEFS
REFORECAST PAGE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RAIN LIKELY ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LESSER
PROBABILITIES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. DIURNAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO CLOUD COVER, WITH
MILDER THAN NORMAL NIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTH RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THEREAFTER, OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH ON WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER 8TH-9TH, WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY
MOVING SOUTH OF US INTO CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, A LOOK AT ENSEMBLE
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAEFS, GFS, ECMWF, AND CFSV2 ALL INDICATE
THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK WITH A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE STORM TRACK. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT THU OCT 31 2014... A COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWEST OF THE
WATERS ON SATURDAY THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING ANOTHER LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$








000
FXUS65 KBOI 310239
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
839 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...DEEP TROUGH OFF THE NW COAST THIS EVENING WITH LOTS OF
COLD CU WEST OF 130W.  TROUGH WILL COME IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
LATEST MODEL TIMING HAS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG A MCCALL/ID
SWWD TO ROME/OR LINE AT SUNSET FRIDAY...WITH ALL THE PCPN BEHIND
THE FRONT.  PCPN WILL ENTER WRN IDAHO AFTER 12Z SATURDAY MORNING AND
COVER ALL IDAHO ZONES LATER SATURDAY.  STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
LOWER MAX TEMPS ABOUT 20F SATURDAY COMPARED TO FRIDAY.  SNOW
LEVEL WILL LOWER TO ABOUT 4200 FEET MSL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...OR LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LOW ENOUGH
FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE AT PASS LEVELS.  SIGNIFICANT W-E SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE SNAKE BASIN
SATURDAY AND MAY REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WRN MAGIC VALLEY...
BUT SO FAR GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT WINDS THAT STRONG.  CURRENT
FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES
SATURDAY BUT NONE OF THE MODELS HAS NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX.  STILL...
GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AND THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS IT...THERE
SHOULD BE PRONOUNCED LIFT AT FROPA AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN MAGIC VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT
AROUND 10K FT MSL...SOUTHWEST AT 25-35KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SHIFT CLOSE TO THE COAST FRIDAY AND BRING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SATURDAY. TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THIS WILL
RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES...AREAS OF BREEZY SE TO SW WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SHOWERS OVER OREGON LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO SATURDAY. COOLING OF 2 TO 5
DEGREES MAINLY ACROSS OREGON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY 10-20
DEGREES FURTHER COOLING SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. LOW LI AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NE OREGON LATE
FRIDAY AND LOW LI WILL CONTINUE ACROSS S CENTRAL IDAHO LATE SATURDAY
FOR A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY FROM ONTARIO THROUGH TWIN FALLS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH  TUESDAY...COOL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 5000 FEET BRIEFLY AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF WEAK RIDGING.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BY MONDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
ZONAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE BLUE/W-CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY
COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE 6000 FT ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTH KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DRY AND A HAIR
WARMER THAN OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA/AB




000
FXUS66 KMFR 310231
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
731 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STRATIFORM RAIN FIELD AND LIES IN A LINE FROM ROUGHLY NORTHWEST
SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTH THROUGH WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY INTO EASTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY. 31/00Z SOUNDING FROM MEDFORD SHOWED LITTLE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY, BUT THERE IS INSTABILITY ALOFT (ABOVE ROUGHLY
700 MILLIBARS). LATEST RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE SHOW AN INSTABILITY
AXIS IN THIS AREA, AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE PRETTY HEFTY
WITH 50-60DBZ CORES. THE CORES ARE TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 15,000
FT, WHICH IS ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL, SO I CAN`T RULE OUT SMALL
HAIL IN THESE CELLS. HOWEVER, CELL TOPS ARE ONLY REACHING TO
AROUND 20,000 FT, SO AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANYTHING MORE THAN
THAT.

SO FAR, WE`VE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHERN JACKSON
AND EASTERN DOUGLAS WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER JET AXIS. THERE
IS REALLY NO REASON TO THINK THIS WON`T CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS
AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE CASCADES. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THINGS
STABILIZING THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID AN UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE EVENING. WE WILL RE-EVALUATE AT THAT
POINT. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST LATER
THIS EVENING THEN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN VALLEY MVFR AND LOCAL IFR AS IT MOVES INLAND
TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE UNTIL AT
LEAST 6Z FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. THIS INCLUDES KMFR. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION. HOWEVER TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SPREADING OVER THE COAST. RAIN HAS
ALREADY STARTED FALLING AT THE COAST WITH QUAIL PRAIRIE IN CURRY
COUNTY RECEIVING A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE PAST HOUR. RAIN AND
CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES FURTHER
INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WINDS WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. SHASTA VALLEY AND THE EAST SIDE WILL STILL
SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT NOTHING LIKE WAS OBSERVED THIS PAST
WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS RAIN IS CONCERNED, THE STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WEST SIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
MAKING IT TO THE EAST SIDE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A SHOWERY PATTERN WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE WEST
SIDE DURING THE PRIME TRICK-OR-TREATING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN DRY DURING THE EVENING, BUT A SHOWER HERE OR THERE
CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM SOME INLAND AREAS
WEST OF THE CASCADES CONSIDERING FAIRLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY,
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
NO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL AFFECT THE AREA. FROST
IS A CONCERN FOR SOME WEST SIDE VALLEYS, SO STAY TUNED FOR
MORE INFORMATION AS IT APPROACHES.

LONG TERM...
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3RD THROUGH THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6TH, 2014.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AT JET STREAM LEVEL WILL BECOME
PREDOMINATELY WEST. THIS WILL INDUCE LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION AND SOME WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD BOTH CLIMATOLOGY UNDER THIS
PATTERN AND REFORECAST ANALOG PROBABILITIES FROM ESRL`S NCEP GEFS
REFORECAST PAGE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RAIN LIKELY ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LESSER
PROBABILITIES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. DIURNAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO CLOUD COVER, WITH
MILDER THAN NORMAL NIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTH RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THEREAFTER, OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH ON WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER 8TH-9TH, WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY
MOVING SOUTH OF US INTO CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, A LOOK AT ENSEMBLE
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAEFS, GFS, ECMWF, AND CFSV2 ALL INDICATE
THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK WITH A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE STORM TRACK. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT THU OCT 31 2014... A COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWEST OF THE
WATERS ON SATURDAY THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING ANOTHER LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$







000
FXUS66 KPDT 310223
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
722 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES ARE CLOUDY
ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON. RAIN HAS BEEN FOCUSED MOSTLY ALONG THE
CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THIS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST WITH THE FRONT. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS IDAHO
INTO MONTANA ON SATURDAY. A LARGE PRECIP SHIELD WILL DEVELOP AND
KEEP RAIN FALLING OVER NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON
INTO SATURDAY. COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MEAN SNOW
FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY THE WALLOWA AND BLUES. CLOUD
COVER AND A COLDER AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. HAVE ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND HIGH
DEW POINTS INDICATE FOG COVERAGE WILL INCREASE. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 225 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MOVED
ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING TAKING MUCH OF THE RAIN
WITH IT EXCEPT ALONG THE WA CASCADES. THE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THIS REGION UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TWO STATE AREA
TOMORROW. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ARRIVING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD INTO THE BLUE/WALLOWAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS THIS
AREA INTO SATURDAY. AS THE SHOWERS DRIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION SOME
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO OUR ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

BREEZY WEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
MEANWHILE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS KICK IN
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
REGION IN THE WAKE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED
INTO IDAHO/MONTANA BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST MAKING
LANDFALL OVERNIGHT MONDAY. THE WARM FRONT BEGINS SPREADING RAIN EAST
OF THE CASCADES MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN MAKING AN ENTRANCE IN
CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT THE WARM FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS FORECAST AREA BRINGING
RAIN LIKELY AREAWIDE. THE WARM FRONT PERSISTS OVER REGION DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY, WHICH KEEPS HIGH POPS OVER MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM
AIR BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN TO MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS FORECAST ON TUESDAY FOR MORE RAIN. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CWA FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. POLAN

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH AND EXITED THE
FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR WILL PREVAIL
FOR REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, EXCEPT KALW MAY
SEE MVFR FROM HZ FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL AROUND DUSK. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO VFR/IFR AT KDLS, KYKM, KRDM AND KBDN OVERNIGHT DUE
THE COLD FRONT BRINGING LOWERING CIGS WITH STEADY RAIN SPREADING
EAST ACROSS REGION. RAIN STARTS AT KDLS AROUND 31ST/01Z, THEN AT
KYKM BY 04Z, KRDM AND KBDN BY 08Z, KPSC AND KPDT BY 13Z, AND KALW BY
14Z. WINDS AOB 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  58  40  51 /  10  70  70  20
ALW  50  60  44  53 /  10  70  70  30
PSC  48  60  42  56 /  10  60  60  10
YKM  46  57  36  55 /  70  70  20  10
HRI  46  59  40  56 /  10  60  60  10
ELN  45  54  36  51 /  80  70  20  10
RDM  43  53  31  48 /  40  80  50  10
LGD  46  60  41  46 /  10  50  70  70
GCD  44  58  38  47 /  10  60  70  60
DLS  50  58  42  55 /  80  80  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/99/76









000
FXUS66 KMFR 302202
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
302 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SPREADING OVER THE COAST. RAIN HAS
ALREADY STARTED FALLING AT THE COAST WITH QUAIL PRAIRIE IN CURRY
COUNTY RECEIVING A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE PAST HOUR. RAIN AND
CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES FURTHER
INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WINDS WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. SHASTA VALLEY AND THE EAST SIDE WILL STILL
SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT NOTHING LIKE WAS OBSERVED THIS PAST
WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS RAIN IS CONCERNED, THE STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WEST SIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
MAKING IT TO THE EAST SIDE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A SHOWERY PATTERN WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE WEST
SIDE DURING THE PRIME TRICK-OR-TREATING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN DRY DURING THE EVENING, BUT A SHOWER HERE OR THERE
CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM SOME INLAND AREAS
WEST OF THE CASCADES CONSIDERING FAIRLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY,
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
NO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL AFFECT THE AREA. FROST
IS A CONCERN FOR SOME WEST SIDE VALLEYS, SO STAY TUNED FOR
MORE INFORMATION AS IT APPROACHES.

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3RD THROUGH THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6TH, 2014.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AT JET STREAM LEVEL WILL BECOME
PREDOMINATELY WEST. THIS WILL INDUCE LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION AND SOME WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD BOTH CLIMATOLOGY UNDER THIS
PATTERN AND REFORECAST ANALOG PROBABILITIES FROM ESRL`S NCEP GEFS
REFORECAST PAGE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RAIN LIKELY ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LESSER
PROBABILITIES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. DIURNAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO CLOUD COVER, WITH
MILDER THAN NORMAL NIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTH RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THEREAFTER, OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH ON WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER 8TH-9TH, WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY
MOVING SOUTH OF US INTO CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, A LOOK AT ENSEMBLE
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAEFS, GFS, ECMWF, AND CFSV2 ALL INDICATE
THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK WITH A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE STORM TRACK. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...
EXTENSIVE WET SEASON LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING ARE GETTING
SOME ASSISTANCE IN BREAKING UP BY INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ALOFT.
EXPECT REMAINING IFR CONDITIONS IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL
IMPROVE TO A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL SPREAD RAIN INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE WEST SIDE AND THEN OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ON THE EAST SIDE. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL RESULT IN VALLEY MVFR AND LOCAL IFR AS IT MOVE THROUGH.  COAST
RANGE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING WILL BUILD INLAND WITH THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT THU OCT 31 2014...
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH WINDS AND SEAS
DECREASING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
SOUTHWEST OF THE WATERS ON SATURDAY THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING ANOTHER
LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MND/BTL/MTS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 302202
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
302 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SPREADING OVER THE COAST. RAIN HAS
ALREADY STARTED FALLING AT THE COAST WITH QUAIL PRAIRIE IN CURRY
COUNTY RECEIVING A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE PAST HOUR. RAIN AND
CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES FURTHER
INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WINDS WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. SHASTA VALLEY AND THE EAST SIDE WILL STILL
SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT NOTHING LIKE WAS OBSERVED THIS PAST
WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS RAIN IS CONCERNED, THE STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WEST SIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
MAKING IT TO THE EAST SIDE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A SHOWERY PATTERN WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE WEST
SIDE DURING THE PRIME TRICK-OR-TREATING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN DRY DURING THE EVENING, BUT A SHOWER HERE OR THERE
CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM SOME INLAND AREAS
WEST OF THE CASCADES CONSIDERING FAIRLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY,
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
NO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL AFFECT THE AREA. FROST
IS A CONCERN FOR SOME WEST SIDE VALLEYS, SO STAY TUNED FOR
MORE INFORMATION AS IT APPROACHES.

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3RD THROUGH THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6TH, 2014.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AT JET STREAM LEVEL WILL BECOME
PREDOMINATELY WEST. THIS WILL INDUCE LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION AND SOME WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD BOTH CLIMATOLOGY UNDER THIS
PATTERN AND REFORECAST ANALOG PROBABILITIES FROM ESRL`S NCEP GEFS
REFORECAST PAGE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RAIN LIKELY ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LESSER
PROBABILITIES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. DIURNAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO CLOUD COVER, WITH
MILDER THAN NORMAL NIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTH RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THEREAFTER, OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH ON WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER 8TH-9TH, WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY
MOVING SOUTH OF US INTO CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, A LOOK AT ENSEMBLE
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAEFS, GFS, ECMWF, AND CFSV2 ALL INDICATE
THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK WITH A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE STORM TRACK. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...
EXTENSIVE WET SEASON LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING ARE GETTING
SOME ASSISTANCE IN BREAKING UP BY INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ALOFT.
EXPECT REMAINING IFR CONDITIONS IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL
IMPROVE TO A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL SPREAD RAIN INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE WEST SIDE AND THEN OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ON THE EAST SIDE. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL RESULT IN VALLEY MVFR AND LOCAL IFR AS IT MOVE THROUGH.  COAST
RANGE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING WILL BUILD INLAND WITH THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT THU OCT 31 2014...
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH WINDS AND SEAS
DECREASING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
SOUTHWEST OF THE WATERS ON SATURDAY THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING ANOTHER
LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MND/BTL/MTS





000
FXUS66 KPQR 302200
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
259 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS..STEADY RAIN WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS CONTAINING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
ISOLATED DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR THOSE TRICK OR TREATING. SOME
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE LIGHT RAIN SPREADS BACK
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WET SYSTEM ON TAP
FOR LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED MUCH OF
THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NORTH
OREGON COAST AND SW WASHINGTON. WITH A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH
RECORDED AT MANY SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THE
COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED A BIT DURING THE DAY AND BECAME MORE
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AS A SHORTWAVE DROPPED SOUTH OVER THE NE
PACIFIC. UTILIZING AN ASCAT PASS AROUND NOON PDT/19Z...A SIGNIFICANT
WIND SHIFT IS EVIDENT AND PLACED THE FRONT AROUND 65 NM OFFSHORE.
ADDITIONALLY...NWS DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA AT THIS HOUR LOCATES
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND 40NM FROM THE COAST. THEREFORE...THE MAIN
FRONTAL BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST AROUND 4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
AROUND 0.75 INCH TO ONE INCH FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER INLAND. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THIS POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE AS THE COLD
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER NEAR THE COAST...OR OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MOVING
INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THOUGH A SLOWING OF THE FRONT COULD KEEP SOME
SHOWERS AROUND. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE CURRENT
INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY IF SOME AREAS SEE SOME CLEARING LATER
FRIDAY. AS THE COLDER AIR MASS SETS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP INTO THE 4500 TO 5000 FT RANGE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THOUGH MOTORISTS TRAVELING OVER THE HIGHER CASCADE PASSES
INCLUDING SANTIAM AND WILLAMETTE SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST ENOUGH SNOW TO IMPACT TRAVEL LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SLIDES INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY AND
SHOWERS END AS SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY CLIP THE REGION. MORE STEADY RAIN
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES.   CULLEN
&&


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION BY MONDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM APPROACHING...BUT
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DO REMAIN IN TERMS OF THE LOCATION AND
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. SOME INDICATION THAT SOME SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE PATTERN DOES
APPEAR TO STAY A BIT PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE. THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER WET WEEK APPEARS IN STORE.CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT IS NOT MOVING AS FAST AS ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT. AS SUCH WE CAN EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE ARRIVING ALONG
THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL BE AROUND 01-03Z. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW. MVFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IFR CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY UNLIKELY BUT IF
THEY DO FORM THEY WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF IN NATURE. BREEZY EAST
WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. /64

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING.
THE PROGRESSION HAS NOT BEEN AS FAST AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. LATEST
OBS PLACE THE FRONT APPROXIMATELY 40 MI OFFSHORE. S WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE SCA FOR WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY 7 PM
PDT. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. SEAS APPROACHING 10 FT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FRI
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NW BY SAT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 PM
    THIS EVENING TO 1 AM PDT FRIDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 10 AM TO
     2 PM PDT FRIDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 302200
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
259 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS..STEADY RAIN WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS CONTAINING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
ISOLATED DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR THOSE TRICK OR TREATING. SOME
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE LIGHT RAIN SPREADS BACK
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WET SYSTEM ON TAP
FOR LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED MUCH OF
THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NORTH
OREGON COAST AND SW WASHINGTON. WITH A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH
RECORDED AT MANY SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THE
COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED A BIT DURING THE DAY AND BECAME MORE
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AS A SHORTWAVE DROPPED SOUTH OVER THE NE
PACIFIC. UTILIZING AN ASCAT PASS AROUND NOON PDT/19Z...A SIGNIFICANT
WIND SHIFT IS EVIDENT AND PLACED THE FRONT AROUND 65 NM OFFSHORE.
ADDITIONALLY...NWS DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA AT THIS HOUR LOCATES
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND 40NM FROM THE COAST. THEREFORE...THE MAIN
FRONTAL BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST AROUND 4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
AROUND 0.75 INCH TO ONE INCH FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER INLAND. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THIS POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE AS THE COLD
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER NEAR THE COAST...OR OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MOVING
INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THOUGH A SLOWING OF THE FRONT COULD KEEP SOME
SHOWERS AROUND. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE CURRENT
INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY IF SOME AREAS SEE SOME CLEARING LATER
FRIDAY. AS THE COLDER AIR MASS SETS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP INTO THE 4500 TO 5000 FT RANGE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THOUGH MOTORISTS TRAVELING OVER THE HIGHER CASCADE PASSES
INCLUDING SANTIAM AND WILLAMETTE SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST ENOUGH SNOW TO IMPACT TRAVEL LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SLIDES INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY AND
SHOWERS END AS SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY CLIP THE REGION. MORE STEADY RAIN
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES.   CULLEN
&&


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION BY MONDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM APPROACHING...BUT
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DO REMAIN IN TERMS OF THE LOCATION AND
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. SOME INDICATION THAT SOME SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE PATTERN DOES
APPEAR TO STAY A BIT PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE. THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER WET WEEK APPEARS IN STORE.CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT IS NOT MOVING AS FAST AS ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT. AS SUCH WE CAN EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE ARRIVING ALONG
THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL BE AROUND 01-03Z. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW. MVFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IFR CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY UNLIKELY BUT IF
THEY DO FORM THEY WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF IN NATURE. BREEZY EAST
WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. /64

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING.
THE PROGRESSION HAS NOT BEEN AS FAST AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. LATEST
OBS PLACE THE FRONT APPROXIMATELY 40 MI OFFSHORE. S WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE SCA FOR WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY 7 PM
PDT. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. SEAS APPROACHING 10 FT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FRI
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NW BY SAT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 PM
    THIS EVENING TO 1 AM PDT FRIDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 10 AM TO
     2 PM PDT FRIDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 302134
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MOVED
ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING TAKING MUCH OF THE RAIN
WITH IT EXCEPT ALONG THE WA CASCADES. THE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THIS REGION UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TWO STATE AREA
TOMORROW. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ARRIVING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD INTO THE BLUE/WALLOWAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS THIS
AREA INTO SATURDAY. AS THE SHOWERS DRIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION SOME
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO OUR ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

BREEZY WEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
MEANWHILE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS KICK IN
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
REGION IN THE WAKE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED
INTO IDAHO/MONTANA BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST MAKING
LANDFALL OVERNIGHT MONDAY. THE WARM FRONT BEGINS SPREADING RAIN EAST
OF THE CASCADES MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN MAKING AN ENTRANCE IN
CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT THE WARM FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS FORECAST AREA BRINGING
RAIN LIKELY AREAWIDE. THE WARM FRONT PERSISTS OVER REGION DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY, WHICH KEEPS HIGH POPS OVER MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM
AIR BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN TO MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS FORECAST ON TUESDAY FOR MORE RAIN. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CWA FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH AND EXITED THE
FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR WILL PREVAIL
FOR REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, EXCEPT KALW MAY
SEE MVFR FROM HZ FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL AROUND DUSK. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO VFR/IFR AT KDLS, KYKM, KRDM AND KBDN OVERNIGHT DUE
THE COLD FRONT BRINGING LOWERING CIGS WITH STEADY RAIN SPREADING
EAST ACROSS REGION. RAIN STARTS AT KDLS AROUND 31ST/01Z, THEN AT
KYKM BY 04Z, KRDM AND KBDN BY 08Z, KPSC AND KPDT BY 13Z, AND KALW BY
14Z. WINDS AOB 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  POLAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  57  40  51 /  10  70  70  20
ALW  51  59  44  53 /  10  60  70  30
PSC  47  59  42  56 /  10  60  60  10
YKM  44  56  36  55 /  70  70  20  10
HRI  45  58  40  56 /  10  60  60  10
ELN  45  53  36  51 /  80  70  20  10
RDM  41  52  31  48 /  20  80  70  10
LGD  46  59  41  46 /  10  50  70  70
GCD  46  58  38  47 /  10  60  70  60
DLS  48  56  42  55 /  80  80  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/99/99









000
FXUS65 KBOI 302101
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
301 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SHIFT CLOSE TO THE COAST FRIDAY AND BRING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SATURDAY. TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THIS WILL
RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES...AREAS OF BREEZY SE TO SW WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SHOWERS OVER OREGON LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO SATURDAY. COOLING OF 2 TO 5
DEGREES MAINLY ACROSS OREGON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY 10-20
DEGREES OF COOLING SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH MUCH COOLER WX. LOW LI AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NE OREGON LATE FRIDAY AND LOW LI WILL CONTINUE ACROSS S CENTRAL
IDAHO LATE SATURDAY FOR A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY FROM ONTARIO THROUGH TWIN
FALLS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH  TUESDAY...COOL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 5000 FEET BRIEFLY AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF WEAK RIDGING.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BY MONDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
ZONAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE BLUE/W CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY
COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE 6000 FT ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTH KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DRY AND A HAIR
WARMER THAN OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST 5-15KT...STRONGEST THROUGH MAGIC
VALLEY NEAR KJER. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 20-30KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA/AB
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS66 KMFR 301853
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1155 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATES THIS MORNING INCLUDED BUMPING UP SKY COVER IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS FOR FOG AND ADJUSTING POPS FOR THE EXPECTED
SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME OF THE FRONT TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
VALLEY FOG IN MOST SIDE LOCATIONS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
COVERING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE IN IS
CURRENTLY INSIDE OF 130W. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ORIENTED
IN MORE OF A NORTH-SOUTH DIRECTION AND THIS WILL SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. EXPECT RAIN TO BEGIN AT THE COAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING INLAND LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL
STILL BE BREEZY ON THE EAST SIDE AND SHASTA VALLEY, BUT NOTHING
LIKE WE SAW WITH THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. TODAY`S FOCUS FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY AND FOR
TOMORROW`S TRICK-OR-TREATING ACTIVITIES, AS WELL AS SNOW LEVELS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...
EXTENSIVE WET SEASON LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING ARE GETTING
SOME ASSISTANCE IN BREAKING UP BY INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ALOFT.
EXPECT REMAINING IFR CONDITIONS IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL
IMPROVE TO A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL SPREAD RAIN INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE WEST SIDE AND THEN OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ON THE EAST SIDE. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL RESULT IN VALLEY MVFR AND LOCAL IFR AS IT MOVE THROUGH.  COAST
RANGE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING WILL BUILD INLAND WITH THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 930 AM PDT THU  OCT 2014...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THEN INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS AND WIND SEAS WILL
BE ENHANCED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST...PRIMARILY FROM
THE CAPE BLANCO AREA NORTHWARD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
SOME THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED AT BUOY
15, WHICH WERE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT A BIT STRONGER
THAN MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED. IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK
LOW LEVEL COASTAL JET IS FORMING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CAPE BLANCO
VICINITY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
SOUTHWEST OF THE WATERS ON SATURDAY. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND WITH
EACH RUN,. THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CLEAR. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN A CONTINUING WET
PATTERN FOR OUR AREA, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
SEASON EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING,
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN. BUT LURKING OFFSHORE WILL BE THE NEXT COLD FRONT , DUE TO
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST, THEN PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT DOES HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER AIR BEHIND IT, AND LOTS OF MOISTURE INFLOW ALONG IT, THERE IS
NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH IT. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO
THE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT, AND THE FACT THAT AS IT
PUSHES INLAND, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
IT AND A BROAD AREA OF LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS NOT TO SAY IT WILL NOT BE BREEZY IN
MANY PLACES, INCLUDING THE COAST, THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND THE EAST
SIDE, JUST THAT STRONG WINDS LIKE THE ONES WE HAVE SEEN WITH SEVERAL
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE.

PRECIPITATION WILL MOST CERTAINLY MAKE AN APPEARANCE FOR MOST, IF
NOT ALL, OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL CARRY WITH IT A GOOD
DEAL OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC. 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND THE COASTAL
RANGE AS WELL AS THE CASCADES, WHILE A QUARTER INCH TO ONE INCH IS
LIKELY FOR PRETTY MUCH THE REST OF THE AREA. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE WILL FALL AS THE FRONT ITSELF PUSHES THROUGH, HOWEVER, WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT, SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND
CONTINUE TO DROP PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY MAY EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
OR TWO WEST OF THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO LOWER
SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, DROPPING TO BELOW 5000 FEET
WHILE THE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO FALL ALONG
THE PEAKS AND THE HIGHER PASSES, AS WELL AS SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SIDE. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, ROADS
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BECOME SLICK IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND, IN FACT, SOME OF
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SEEN IN OUR AREA SINCE LAST SPRING ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH TOO FAR OUT FOR
CERTAINTY AT THIS TIME, FROST OR MAYBE EVEN FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR MANY PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE, INCLUDING THE SHASTA,
SCOTT, ROGUE, AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES, BUT NOT BECAUSE THE MODELS
ARE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT. ALTHOUGH RIDGING AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE BULK OF OUR AREA, WE WILL LIE
JUST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST TO THE NORTH.
SOME WEAKER SYSTEMS MAY ATTEMPT TO PUSH THROUGH THIS FLOW, AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS THE TAIL OF THESE SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH. THE LARGEST
OF THESE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BE A
DECENT RAINMAKER FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST. THE NEXT MORE
POTENT WEATHER MAKER IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK,
AND THIS ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WIND AND RAIN
PRODUCER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL WARM FROM THE COLD WEEKEND,
MOSTLY DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE RIDGING OVERHEAD,
BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY RISING VERY MUCH
HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN WEST SIDE
VALLEYS BARELY MAKING IT INTO THE LOW 60S, AND THE EAST SIDE FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED IN THE 50S. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MND/BTL/FJB








000
FXUS66 KPDT 301810 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1109 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...A WARM FRONT WAS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN
AREA OF RAIN FOLLOWING IT. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WA INCLUDING THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA
CASCADES. MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTH. BY MIDDAY
PORTIONS OF THE REGION SHOULD BREAK INTO SOME SUNSHINE AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE NORMAL. THEREFORE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED A FEW DEGREES AND THE PRESENT SHORT
TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH IS STILL BRINGING
LIGHT RAIN TO KYKM, WHICH SHOULD END BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
WILL CONTINUE AT KYKM AND KALW UNTIL 20Z-21Z TODAY, THEN IMPROVE TO
VFR. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO VFR/IFR AT KDLS, KYKM, KRDM AND KBDN
OVERNIGHT DUE THE COLD FRONT BRINGING LOWERING CIGS WITH STEADY RAIN
SPREADING EAST ACROSS REGION. RAIN STARTS AT KDLS AROUND 31ST/01Z,
THEN AT KYKM BY 04Z, KRDM AND KBDN BY 08Z, KPSC AND KPDT BY 13Z, AND
KALW BY 14Z. WINDS AOB 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST IS MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FRONT IS OVER WESTERN AREAS FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER DID NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE WALLOWA AND ELKHORN MOUNTAINS. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM PARALLEL TO IT. AS A RESULT
THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CASCADES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THE FRONT WILL MAKE AN
ADVANCE TO THE EAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD FINALLY REACHING THE
IDAHO BORDER BY FRIDAY EVENING (00Z-06Z SATURDAY) WITH LIKELY POPS
MOVING INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THAT TIME THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
CASCADES. THIS WILL CAUSE RAIN SHADOWING OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS WITH DECREASING
POPS THERE. DRYING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. WEST OF THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE WITH THE RAIN ENDING OVER THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AS WELL AS THE
YAKIMA/KITTITAS VALLEYS. THE GFS MODEL HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND LEANED MOSTLY TO IT FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER
WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 4500 FEET OVER WESTERN
AREAS...CAUSING THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ABOVE THIS
LEVEL IN THE CASCADES BEFORE TAPING OFF. SINCE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED EAST BY THAT TIME ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT IF ANY OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES.
DRYING WILL CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EARLY EXTENDED PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT
THEY WILL INCREASE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING OF HIGHER
WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES...BUT COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND THEN ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
SATURDAY. THE MOST DRAMATIC COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
CWA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN EXITING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.  WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM MAY KEEP RAIN
BELOW 3500 FEET AND SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET GOING THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THIS WILL RESULT GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AGAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
TO ABOUT 6500 FEET.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION HEADING INTO TUESDAY BRINGING AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS CONTINUING TO RISE TO ABOUT 7500
FEET GIVEN THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE.  MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF DRYING
FROM THE GFS AND THE DGEX...BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER MOISTURE
LADEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE REGION.  HAVE OPTED TO LOWER POPS SOME
BY BLENDING CLIMO TO THE PRIOR FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY...WITH GRADUAL WARMING INCREASING
THE TEMPERATURES UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.  BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  46  56  40 /  20  10  70  70
ALW  61  49  58  44 /  20  10  60  70
PSC  58  45  58  42 /  30  10  60  60
YKM  56  42  55  36 /  80  70  70  20
HRI  59  43  57  40 /  30  10  60  60
ELN  55  43  52  36 /  90  80  70  20
RDM  63  39  51  31 /  20  20  80  70
LGD  62  44  58  39 /  20  10  50  70
GCD  64  44  57  38 /  10  10  60  70
DLS  60  46  55  42 / 100  80  80  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/99/88/98







000
FXUS66 KPQR 301709
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1009 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY...STEADIER RAIN WILL
SHIFT OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS
CONTAINING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS FOR THOSE TRICK OR TREATING. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE LIGHT RAIN SPREADS BACK ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER WET SYSTEM ON TAP FOR LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DEPICTS RAIN SHOWERS...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY...CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...PREDOMINATELY NORTH OF A LINCOLN CITY TO MT HOOD LINE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BREAK IN RAIN ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE
LIFTING WARM FRONT AND ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THIS.
THEREFORE LOWERED POPS A BIT THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR LINN AND
INTERIOR LANE COUNTIES.

MEANWHILE...CAMERAS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SOME LOCALLY DENSE
FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. IMAGES
DEPICT A RELATIVELY SHALLOW LAYER AND EXPECT THIS TO MIX OUT BY
MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND DETAILS IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION REMAIN VALID.  CULLEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A LARGE DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 140W. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...AN OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE IS BEING RE-ENERGIZED AND LIFTING
BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS TAPPED INTO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 TO
1.25 INCHES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS WESTERN
OREGON AND WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE ONLY RESULTED IN
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH CLOUD TOPS CONTINUING TO COOL TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT OFF AND ON
LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH PERHAPS
A MORE EXTENDED BREAK IN THE RAIN TOWARDS LANE AND LINN COUNTIES
LATER THIS MORNING. A MORE CONSOLIDATED REGION OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON
COAST...A PRELUDE OF THINGS TO COME TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH GOOD LOW AND MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...EXPECT A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST BAND OF RAIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST TODAY...BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE
INTERIOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
APPEAR LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN TOTALS IN THE 0.50 TO 1.00 RANGE FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THIS FRONT MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLOW DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING MORE THAN CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DUE TO A 120 KT
JET DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

ONCE THE STEADIER RAIN SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY...A MUCH
COOLER AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO POP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT BUBBLE UP. OCEAN TEMPERATURES CERTAINLY
SUPPORT THUNDER NEAR THE COAST...AND DEPENDING ON CLEARING OVER THE
INTERIOR...A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD BECOME MUCH
MORE ISOLATED FRIDAY EVENING AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MOST TRICK OR TREATERS STAYING DRY FRIDAY
EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER INTO
THE 4500 TO 5000 FT RANGE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIMITED OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY UNDER WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA. NONETHELESS...HIGHER
PASSES LIKE SANTIAM PASS AND WILLAMETTE PASSES SHOULD STILL SEE
ENOUGH SNOW TO AT LEAST IMPACT TRAVEL OFF AND ON FRIDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...EVEN IF ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

A WEAK WARM FRONT SPREADING EASTWARD MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN TO OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. /NEUMAN
&&


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS SEEM TO CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF A
CONSOLIDATED...BUT TRANSIENT FRONT BRINGING A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN TO
THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LOW END CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS
WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE BRUNT OF THE QPF LOOKS
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND POINTS NORTHWARD. WITH
ZONAL FLOW TO FOLLOW...POPS WERE KEPT A BIT ABOVE CLIMO IN THE FAR
EXTENDED. /NEUMAN

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL
EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH AT
19Z. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VIS AND CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. EXPECT FRONTAL
PASSAGE ALONG THE COAST AROUND 21Z AND INLAND AROUND 00Z.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND WILL
INDUCE A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CASCADES WITH EAST
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE AT KTTD THROUGH 21Z. EXPECT
LIGHTER EASTERLY WINDS AT KPDX.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS TODAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IFR CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY UNLIKELY BUT IF
THEY DO FORM THEY WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF IN NATURE. BREEZY EAST
WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. /27/64

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY. S WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED. THE SCA FOR
WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS QUIET
DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER....THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NW BY SAT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

SEAS MAY CLIMB TO 10 FT AS WINDS PEAK TODAY BUT IT SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND LOCALIZED IN NATURE. SEAS ABOVE 10 FT POSSIBLE FRI
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. /27/64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 PM
     THIS EVENING TO 1 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 301619
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
919 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATES THIS MORNING INCLUDED BUMPING UP SKY COVER IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS FOR FOG AND ADJUSTING POPS FOR THE EXPECTED
SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME OF THE FRONT TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
VALLEY FOG IN MOST SIDE LOCATIONS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
COVERING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE IN IS
CURRENTLY INSIDE OF 130W. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ORIENTED
IN MORE OF A NORTH-SOUTH DIRECTION AND THIS WILL SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. EXPECT RAIN TO BEGIN AT THE COAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING INLAND LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL
STILL BE BREEZY ON THE EAST SIDE AND SHASTA VALLEY, BUT NOTHING
LIKE WE SAW WITH THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. TODAY`S FOCUS FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY AND FOR
TOMORROW`S TRICK-OR-TREATING ACTIVITIES, AS WELL AS SNOW LEVELS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION..FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS HAVE
FORMED ACROSS SW OREGON VALLEYS WITH LCL IFR VIS IN THE KLAMATH
BASIN. IFR CIGS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE BUT REMAINING WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN INLAND AND
THIS WILL HELP TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO
MVFR BY NOON ACROSS SW OREGON. ELSEWHERE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
WITH LCL MVFR CIGS. VIS COULD DROP TO MVFR IN AREAS OF RAIN. /FB.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT THU  OCT 2014...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF IT TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS VERY
SMALL AND FALL MAINLY BETWEEN 9-20NM OFFSHORE AND ONLY DOWN TO OFF
CAPE BLANCO. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
SOUTHWEST OF THE WATERS SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SHOWING INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELL FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WON`T LAST
LONG WITH SWELL HEIGHTS DECREASING ON SATURDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. /FB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND WITH
EACH RUN,. THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CLEAR. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN A CONTINUING WET
PATTERN FOR OUR AREA, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
SEASON EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING,
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN. BUT LURKING OFFSHORE WILL BE THE NEXT COLD FRONT , DUE TO
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST, THEN PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT DOES HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER AIR BEHIND IT, AND LOTS OF MOISTURE INFLOW ALONG IT, THERE IS
NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH IT. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO
THE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT, AND THE FACT THAT AS IT
PUSHES INLAND, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
IT AND A BROAD AREA OF LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS NOT TO SAY IT WILL NOT BE BREEZY IN MANY
PLACES, INCLUDING THE COAST, THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND THE EAST SIDE,
JUST THAT STRONG WINDS LIKE THE ONES WE HAVE SEEN WITH SEVERAL
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE.

PRECIPITATION WILL MOST CERTAINLY MAKE AN APPEARANCE FOR MOST, IF
NOT ALL, OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL CARRY WITH IT A GOOD
DEAL OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC. 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND THE COASTAL
RANGE AS WELL AS THE CASCADES, WHILE A QUARTER INCH TO ONE INCH IS
LIKELY FOR PRETTY MUCH THE REST OF THE AREA. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE WILL FALL AS THE FRONT ITSELF PUSHES THROUGH, HOWEVER, WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT, SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND
CONTINUE TO DROP PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY MAY EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
OR TWO WEST OF THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO LOWER
SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, DROPPING TO BELOW 5000 FEET
WHILE THE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO FALL ALONG
THE PEAKS AND THE HIGHER PASSES, AS WELL AS SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SIDE. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, ROADS
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BECOME SLICK IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND, IN FACT, SOME OF
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SEEN IN OUR AREA SINCE LAST SPRING ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH TOO FAR OUT FOR
CERTAINTY AT THIS TIME, FROST OR MAYBE EVEN FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR MANY PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE, INCLUDING THE SHASTA,
SCOTT, ROGUE, AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES, BUT NOT BECAUSE THE MODELS
ARE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT. ALTHOUGH RIDGING AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE BULK OF OUR AREA, WE WILL LIE
JUST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST TO THE NORTH.
SOME WEAKER SYSTEMS MAY ATTEMPT TO PUSH THROUGH THIS FLOW, AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS THE TAIL OF THESE SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH. THE LARGEST
OF THESE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BE A
DECENT RAINMAKER FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST. THE NEXT MORE
POTENT WEATHER MAKER IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK,
AND THIS ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WIND AND RAIN
PRODUCER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL WARM FROM THE COLD WEEKEND,
MOSTLY DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE RIDGING OVERHEAD,
BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY RISING VERY MUCH
HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN WEST SIDE
VALLEYS BARELY MAKING IT INTO THE LOW 60S, AND THE EAST SIDE FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED IN THE 50S. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ021.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MND/BTL/FJB





000
FXUS66 KPDT 301610 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
858 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...A WARM FRONT WAS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN
AREA OF RAIN FOLLOWING IT. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WA INCLUDING THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA
CASCADES. MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTH. BY MIDDAY
PORTIONS OF THE REGION SHOULD BREAK INTO SOME SUNSHINE AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE NORMAL. THEREFORE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED A FEW DEGREES AND THE PRESENT SHORT
TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 420 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST IS MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FRONT IS OVER WESTERN AREAS FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER DID NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE WALLOWA AND ELKHORN MOUNTAINS. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM PARALLEL TO IT. AS A RESULT
THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CASCADES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THE FRONT WILL MAKE AN
ADVANCE TO THE EAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD FINALLY REACHING THE
IDAHO BORDER BY FRIDAY EVENING (00Z-06Z SATURDAY) WITH LIKELY POPS
MOVING INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THAT TIME THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
CASCADES. THIS WILL CAUSE RAIN SHADOWING OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS WITH DECREASING
POPS THERE. DRYING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. WEST OF THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE WITH THE RAIN ENDING OVER THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AS WELL AS THE
YAKIMA/KITTITAS VALLEYS. THE GFS MODEL HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND LEANED MOSTLY TO IT FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER
WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 4500 FEET OVER WESTERN
AREAS...CAUSING THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ABOVE THIS
LEVEL IN THE CASCADES BEFORE TAPING OFF. SINCE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED EAST BY THAT TIME ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT IF ANY OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES.
DRYING WILL CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EARLY EXTENDED PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT
THEY WILL INCREASE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING OF HIGHER
WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES...BUT COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND THEN ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
SATURDAY. THE MOST DRAMATIC COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
CWA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN EXITING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.  WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM MAY KEEP RAIN
BELOW 3500 FEET AND SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET GOING THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THIS WILL RESULT GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AGAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
TO ABOUT 6500 FEET.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION HEADING INTO TUESDAY BRINGING AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS CONTINUING TO RISE TO ABOUT 7500
FEET GIVEN THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE.  MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF DRYING
FROM THE GFS AND THE DGEX...BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER MOISTURE
LADEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE REGION.  HAVE OPTED TO LOWER POPS SOME
BY BLENDING CLIMO TO THE PRIOR FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY...WITH GRADUAL WARMING INCREASING
THE TEMPERATURES UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.  BIEDA

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A WARM FRONT MOVING IS AFFECTING
KBDN...KRDM...KDLS AND KYKM THIS MORNING CAUSING PERIODS OF IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN THAT WILL CONTINUE THRU 30/21Z.  IN
ADDITION...KALW IS EXPERIENCING LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG
THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY START TO LIFT AFT 30/16Z AND DISSIPATE BY
30/18Z. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CASCADES AFT 31/00Z AND BRING
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO KBDN...KRDM...KDLS AND KYKM WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIG/VIS ONCE MORE. FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN FORM TONIGHT AFT 31/04Z
AT KPSC AND KALW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FORECASTED PRESENTLY.  WINDS
AOB 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.  BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  46  56  40 /  20  10  70  70
ALW  61  49  58  44 /  20  10  60  70
PSC  58  45  58  42 /  30  10  60  60
YKM  56  42  55  36 /  80  70  70  20
HRI  59  43  57  40 /  30  10  60  60
ELN  55  43  52  36 /  90  80  70  20
RDM  63  39  51  31 /  20  20  80  70
LGD  62  44  58  39 /  20  10  50  70
GCD  64  44  57  38 /  10  10  60  70
DLS  60  46  55  42 / 100  80  80  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/









000
FXUS65 KBOI 301534
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
934 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY TO THE
WEISER BASIN IS LIFTING. FOG WAS SEEN ON WEB CAMS AT FRUITLAND...
...ONTARIO AND I-95 AT SMOKEY BOULDER. DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM. THAT SYSTEM IS DUE IN ACROSS OREGON AFTER SUNSET
FRIDAY AND ACROSS IDAHO LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEARBY RAIN
ACROSS NE OREGON IS WITH A WARM FRONT AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE
TOWARDS THE ID PANHANDLE AND E WA THIS MORNING...NOT AFFECTING OUR
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST 5-15KT...STRONGEST THROUGH MAGIC
VALLEY NEAR KJER. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 10-20KT
BECOMING SW 20-30KT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HIT
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S IN THE VALLEY TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH 5 PM MDT ON HALLOWEEN BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
RAIN IN BURNS AND BAKER CITY THEREAFTER.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ENERGY DIGGING
INTO THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
FORM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK RIGHT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. BEFORE THE LOW MOVES IN...A FRONTAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD...SPREADING SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO ON
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF AT AROUND 8000 FEET THEN FALL
TO AROUND 5000 FEET ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL AVERAGE 0.10-0.25 INCHES IN THE
VALLEYS AND 0.50-1.00 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING FURTHER TO AROUND 4500
FEET. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING MCCALL WHICH COULD SEE ITS FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. A TIGHT W-E SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
GUSTY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WHICH
COULD BE WINDY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...A MOIST PACIFIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL KEEP IT DRY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....BW




000
FXUS65 KBOI 301534 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
934 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATE FOR FOG UNTIL NOON MAINLY ACROSS THE
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
TO THE WEISER BASIN IS LIFTING. FOG WAS SEEN ON WEB CAMS AT
FRUITLAND...ONTARIO AND I-95 AT SMOKEY BOULDER. /AMEND...FOG WAS
LOCALLY DENSE BETWEEN NAMPA AND MARSING AROUND 10 AM LATE THIS
MORNING./ DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM. THAT SYSTEM IS
DUE IN ACROSS OREGON AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY AND ACROSS IDAHO LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEARBY RAIN ACROSS NE OREGON IS WITH A WARM
FRONT AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE TOWARDS THE ID PANHANDLE AND E WA
THIS MORNING...NOT AFFECTING OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST 5-15KT...STRONGEST THROUGH MAGIC
VALLEY NEAR KJER. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 10-20KT
BECOMING SW 20-30KT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HIT
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S IN THE VALLEY TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH 5 PM MDT ON HALLOWEEN BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
RAIN IN BURNS AND BAKER CITY THEREAFTER.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ENERGY DIGGING
INTO THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
FORM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK RIGHT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. BEFORE THE LOW MOVES IN...A FRONTAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD...SPREADING SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO ON
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF AT AROUND 8000 FEET THEN FALL
TO AROUND 5000 FEET ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL AVERAGE 0.10-0.25 INCHES IN THE
VALLEYS AND 0.50-1.00 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING FURTHER TO AROUND 4500
FEET. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING MCCALL WHICH COULD SEE ITS FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. A TIGHT W-E SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
GUSTY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WHICH
COULD BE WINDY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...A MOIST PACIFIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL KEEP IT DRY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....BW




000
FXUS66 KPDT 301120 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
420 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST IS MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FRONT IS OVER WESTERN AREAS FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER DID NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE WALLOWA AND ELKHORN MOUNTAINS. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM PARALLEL TO IT. AS A RESULT
THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CASCADES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THE FRONT WILL MAKE AN
ADVANCE TO THE EAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD FINALLY REACHING THE
IDAHO BORDER BY FRIDAY EVENING (00Z-06Z SATURDAY) WITH LIKELY POPS
MOVING INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THAT TIME THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
CASCADES. THIS WILL CAUSE RAIN SHADOWING OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS WITH DECREASING
POPS THERE. DRYING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. WEST OF THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE WITH THE RAIN ENDING OVER THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AS WELL AS THE
YAKIMA/KITTITAS VALLEYS. THE GFS MODEL HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND LEANED MOSTLY TO IT FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER
WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 4500 FEET OVER WESTERN
AREAS...CAUSING THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ABOVE THIS
LEVEL IN THE CASCADES BEFORE TAPING OFF. SINCE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED EAST BY THAT TIME ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT IF ANY OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES.
DRYING WILL CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EARLY EXTENDED PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT
THEY WILL INCREASE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING OF HIGHER
WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES...BUT COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND THEN ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
SATURDAY. THE MOST DRAMATIC COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
CWA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN EXITING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.  WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM MAY KEEP RAIN
BELOW 3500 FEET AND SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET GOING THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THIS WILL RESULT GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AGAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
TO ABOUT 6500 FEET.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION HEADING INTO TUESDAY BRINGING AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS CONTINUING TO RISE TO ABOUT 7500
FEET GIVEN THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE.  MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF DRYING
FROM THE GFS AND THE DGEX...BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER MOISTURE
LADEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE REGION.  HAVE OPTED TO LOWER POPS SOME
BY BLENDING CLIMO TO THE PRIOR FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY...WITH GRADUAL WARMING INCREASING
THE TEMPERATURES UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.  BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A WARM FRONT MOVING IS AFFECTING
KBDN...KRDM...KDLS AND KYKM THIS MORNING CAUSING PERIODS OF IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN THAT WILL CONTINUE THRU 30/21Z.  IN
ADDITION...KALW IS EXPERIENCING LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG
THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY START TO LIFT AFT 30/16Z AND DISSIPATE BY
30/18Z. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CASCADES AFT 31/00Z AND BRING
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO KBDN...KRDM...KDLS AND KYKM WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIG/VIS ONCE MORE. FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN FORM TONIGHT AFT 31/04Z
AT KPSC AND KALW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FORECASTED PRESENTLY.  WINDS
AOB 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.  BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  59  46  56  40 /  20  10  70  70
ALW  60  49  58  44 /  20  10  60  70
PSC  57  45  58  42 /  30  10  60  60
YKM  54  42  55  36 /  80  70  70  20
HRI  58  43  57  40 /  30  10  60  60
ELN  52  43  52  36 /  90  80  70  20
RDM  62  39  51  31 /  20  20  80  70
LGD  61  44  58  39 /  20  10  50  70
GCD  63  44  57  38 /  10  10  60  70
DLS  57  46  55  42 / 100  80  80  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/98/98







000
FXUS66 KMFR 301021
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
321 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND WITH
EACH RUN,. THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CLEAR. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN A CONTINUING WET
PATTERN FOR OUR AREA, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
SEASON EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING,
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN. BUT LURKING OFFSHORE WILL BE THE NEXT COLD FRONT , DUE TO
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST, THEN PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT DOES HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER AIR BEHIND IT, AND LOTS OF MOISTURE INFLOW ALONG IT, THERE IS
NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH IT. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO
THE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT, AND THE FACT THAT AS IT
PUSHES INLAND, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
IT AND A BROAD AREA OF LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS NOT TO SAY IT WILL NOT BE BREEZY IN MANY
PLACES, INCLUDING THE COAST, THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND THE EAST SIDE,
JUST THAT STRONG WINDS LIKE THE ONES WE HAVE SEEN WITH SEVERAL
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE.

PRECIPITATION WILL MOST CERTAINLY MAKE AN APPEARANCE FOR MOST, IF
NOT ALL, OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL CARRY WITH IT A GOOD
DEAL OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC. 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND THE COASTAL
RANGE AS WELL AS THE CASCADES, WHILE A QUARTER INCH TO ONE INCH IS
LIKELY FOR PRETTY MUCH THE REST OF THE AREA. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE WILL FALL AS THE FRONT ITSELF PUSHES THROUGH, HOWEVER, WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT, SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND
CONTINUE TO DROP PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY MAY EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
OR TWO WEST OF THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO LOWER
SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, DROPPING TO BELOW 5000 FEET
WHILE THE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO FALL ALONG
THE PEAKS AND THE HIGHER PASSES, AS WELL AS SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SIDE. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, ROADS
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BECOME SLICK IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND, IN FACT, SOME OF
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SEEN IN OUR AREA SINCE LAST SPRING ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH TOO FAR OUT FOR
CERTAINTY AT THIS TIME, FROST OR MAYBE EVEN FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR MANY PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE, INCLUDING THE SHASTA,
SCOTT, ROGUE, AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES, BUT NOT BECAUSE THE MODELS
ARE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT. ALTHOUGH RIDGING AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE BULK OF OUR AREA, WE WILL LIE
JUST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST TO THE NORTH.
SOME WEAKER SYSTEMS MAY ATTEMPT TO PUSH THROUGH THIS FLOW, AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS THE TAIL OF THESE SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH. THE LARGEST
OF THESE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BE A
DECENT RAINMAKER FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST. THE NEXT MORE
POTENT WEATHER MAKER IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK,
AND THIS ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WIND AND RAIN
PRODUCER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL WARM FROM THE COLD WEEKEND,
MOSTLY DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE RIDGING OVERHEAD,
BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY RISING VERY MUCH
HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN WEST SIDE
VALLEYS BARELY MAKING IT INTO THE LOW 60S, AND THE EAST SIDE FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED IN THE 50S. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTH AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST. AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE MOIST PLUME ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE UMPQUA. WE WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VIS OVER
THESE AREAS LATER TONIGHT AS THE MOIST AIRMASS COOLS. SOME
CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH WILL
PROMOTE MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE OBSCURED BY LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AS WELL.
-WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT THU  OCT 2014...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF IT TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS VERY
SMALL AND FALL MAINLY BETWEEN 9-20NM OFFSHORE AND ONLY DOWN TO OFF
CAPE BLANCO. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
SOUTHWEST OF THE WATERS SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SHOWING INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELL FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WON`T LAST
LONG WITH SWELL HEIGHTS DECREASING ON SATURDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TO 5 PM PDT
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

BPN/FJB/TRW







000
FXUS66 KPQR 300944
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
237 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY...STEADIER RAIN WILL
SHIFT OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT SHOWERS
CONTAINING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND POSSIBLY A CLAP OR TWO
OF THUNDER TO BUBBLE UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY
BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR THOSE TRICK OR TREATING.
HIT OR MISS SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE LIGHT RAIN
SPREADS BACK ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY. ANOTHER WET SYSTEM
APPEARS ON TAP FOR LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A LARGE DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 140W. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...AN OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE IS BEING RE-ENERGIZED AND LIFTING
BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS TAPPED INTO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 TO
1.25 INCHES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS WESTERN
OREGON AND WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE ONLY RESULTED IN
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH CLOUD TOPS CONTINUING TO COOL TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT OFF AND ON
LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH PERHAPS
A MORE EXTENDED BREAK IN THE RAIN TOWARDS LANE AND LINN COUNTIES
LATER THIS MORNING. A MORE CONSOLIDATED REGION OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON
COAST...A PRELUDE OF THINGS TO COME TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH GOOD LOW AND MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...EXPECT A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST BAND OF RAIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST TODAY...BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE
INTERIOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
APPEAR LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN TOTALS IN THE 0.50 TO 1.00 RANGE FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THIS FRONT MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLOW DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING MORE THAN CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DUE TO A 120 KT
JET DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

ONCE THE STEADIER RAIN SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY...A MUCH
COOLER AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO POP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT BUBBLE UP. OCEAN TEMPERATURES CERTAINLY
SUPPORT THUNDER NEAR THE COAST...AND DEPENDING ON CLEARING OVER THE
INTERIOR...A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD BECOME MUCH
MORE ISOLATED FRIDAY EVENING AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MOST TRICK OR TREATERS STAYING DRY FRIDAY
EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER INTO
THE 4500 TO 5000 FT RANGE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIMITED OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY UNDER WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA. NONETHELESS...HIGHER
PASSES LIKE SANTIAM PASS AND WILLAMETTE PASSES SHOULD STILL SEE
ENOUGH SNOW TO AT LEAST IMPACT TRAVEL OFF AND ON FRIDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...EVEN IF ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

A WEAK WARM FRONT SPREADING EASTWARD MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN TO OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. /NEUMAN

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS SEEM TO CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF A
CONSOLIDATED...BUT TRANSIENT FRONT BRINGING A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN TO
THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LOW END CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS
WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE BRUNT OF THE QPF LOOKS
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND POINTS NORTHWARD. WITH
ZONAL FLOW TO FOLLOW...POPS WERE KEPT A BIT ABOVE CLIMO IN THE FAR
EXTENDED. /NEUMAN

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS RAIN MOVES NORTH OVER THE
AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS FOR LOCAL IFR/LIFR VIS AND CIGS IN
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH 14-16Z THIS
MORNING. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY 12Z-16Z TODAY AS WELL. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND WILL INDUCE A MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CASCADES WITH EAST WIND GUSTS 25 TO
30 KT POSSIBLE AT KTTD THROUGH 21Z. EXPECT LIGHTER EASTERLY WINDS
AT KPDX.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL A WARM FRONT
NEARS THE TERMINAL BY 12Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS AROUND 1500-2500 FT WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16-17Z THIS MORNING. BREEZY EAST WINDS
INCREASE AFTER 14Z...WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE. /27

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
SE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHERLY LATER THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED. THE SCA FOR WINDS
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS QUIET DOWN
BEHIND THE FRONT BY FRIDAY...TURNING NORTHERLY BY SATURDAY.
WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO THE WEEKEND.

COMBINED SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH NEAR 10 FT AS WINDS PEAK THIS
MORNING BUT FEEL IT WILL BE BRIEF AND MORE LOCALIZED IN NATURE.
THE NEXT UPPER LOW MAY SEND ANOTHER PUSH OF SEAS ABOVE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PERHAPS A STRONGER SYSTEM TUE/WED.
/JBONK/27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 PM
     THIS EVENING TO 1 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS65 KBOI 300922
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
322 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HIT
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S IN THE VALLEY TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH 5 PM MDT ON HALLOWEEN BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
RAIN IN BURNS AND BAKER CITY THEREAFTER.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ENERGY DIGGING
INTO THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
FORM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK RIGHT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. BEFORE THE LOW MOVES IN...A FRONTAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD...SPREADING SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO ON
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF AT AROUND 8000 FEET THEN FALL
TO AROUND 5000 FEET ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL AVERAGE 0.10-0.25 INCHES IN THE
VALLEYS AND 0.50-1.00 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING FURTHER TO AROUND 4500
FEET. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING MCCALL WHICH COULD SEE ITS FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. A TIGHT W-E SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
GUSTY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WHICH
COULD BE WINDY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...A MOIST PACIFIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL KEEP IT DRY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT E-SE WINDS 10-20 KNOTS AT KBKE AND FROM
KMUO TO KJER. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT 15-25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW




000
FXUS66 KPDT 300835
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
135 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST IS MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FRONT IS OVER WESTERN AREAS FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER DID NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE WALLOWA AND ELKHORN MOUNTAINS. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM PARALLEL TO IT. AS A RESULT
THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CASCADES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THE FRONT WILL MAKE AN
ADVANCE TO THE EAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD FINALLY REACHING THE
IDAHO BORDER BY FRIDAY EVENING (00Z-06Z SATURDAY) WITH LIKELY POPS
MOVING INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THAT TIME THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
CASCADES. THIS WILL CAUSE RAIN SHADOWING OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS WITH DECREASING
POPS THERE. DRYING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. WEST OF THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE WITH THE RAIN ENDING OVER THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AS WELL AS THE
YAKIMA/KITTITAS VALLEYS. THE GFS MODEL HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND LEANED MOSTLY TO IT FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER
WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 4500 FEET OVER WESTERN
AREAS...CAUSING THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ABOVE THIS
LEVEL IN THE CASCADES BEFORE TAPING OFF. SINCE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED EAST BY THAT TIME ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT IF ANY OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES.
DRYING WILL CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EARLY EXTENDED PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT
THEY WILL INCREASE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING OF HIGHER
WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES...BUT COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND THEN ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
SATURDAY. THE MOST DRAMATIC COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
CWA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN EXITING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.  WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM MAY KEEP RAIN
BELOW 3500 FEET AND SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET GOING THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THIS WILL RESULT GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AGAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
TO ABOUT 6500 FEET.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION HEADING INTO TUESDAY BRINGING AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS CONTINUING TO RISE TO ABOUT 7500
FEET GIVEN THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE.  MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF DRYING
FROM THE GFS AND THE DGEX...BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER MOISTURE
LADEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE REGION.  HAVE OPTED TO LOWER POPS SOME
BY BLENDING CLIMO TO THE PRIOR FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY...WITH GRADUAL WARMING INCREASING
THE TEMPERATURES UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.  BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
TAFS SITES TONIGHT AFFECTING KBDN...KRDM...KDLS (AND KYKM LATE
TONIGHT). THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY AT KYKM AND TO SOME EXTENT AT KDLS. THE OTHER TAF SITES
WILL SEE MID AND HIGH OVC. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND MOSTLY N-NE. OF NOTE HOWEVER WILL BE GUSTY S-SE WINDS ALONG THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  59  46  56  40 /  20  10  70  70
ALW  60  49  58  44 /  20  10  60  70
PSC  57  45  58  42 /  30  10  60  60
YKM  54  42  55  36 /  80  70  70  20
HRI  58  43  57  40 /  30  10  60  60
ELN  52  43  52  36 /  90  80  70  20
RDM  62  39  51  31 /  20  20  80  70
LGD  61  44  58  39 /  20  10  50  70
GCD  63  44  57  38 /  10  10  60  70
DLS  57  46  55  42 / 100  80  80  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/98/98






000
FXUS66 KPQR 300417
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
915 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH ACROSS
NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE A MOIST COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT SMALL
HAIL WITH THE SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE CASCADE PASSES...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOOK AT THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS OFFSHORE
APPROACHING THE PAC NW TONIGHT. ONE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS FORMED
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION AS A COLD
FRONT YESTERDAY AND IS NOW LIFTING THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTHWARD OVER N
CA AND OREGON TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. A BAND OF HIGH BASED ECHOES IS
SHOWING UP ON DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST UP INTO THE
N OREGON CASCADES. THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING LIGHT
RAIN IS BEGINNING TO REACH THE GROUND...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
FOCUS SHIFTING FURTHER NORTH. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE FCST
MODELS ARE UNDER-DOING THE WARM FRONTAL RAIN. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT...AND AMSU SATELLITE DERIVED
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A NARROW 1 TO 1.2 INCH SUBTROPICAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PLUME FEEDING INTO THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. TAKING THIS INTO
ACCOUNT AND CONSIDERING THAT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
ALREADY FAIRLY MOIST...WILL INCREASE OUR OVERNIGHT QPF A BIT.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING CLOSELY BEHIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
TOMORROW MORNING OFFSHORE AND PUSH ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
MOVING INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL RETAIN SOME OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND PRODUCE FAIRLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TOTALS AROUND 1 TO 2 ADDITIONAL INCHES
ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN...AND AROUND AN INCH FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS FOR THE
MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME...BUT THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
AND COULD POND ON THE ROADS OR FLOOD AREAS WHERE DRAINS ARE CLOGGED.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE QUITE THE
CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES AND AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CHANGE FROM
NEGATIVE 16 DEG C AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NEGATIVE 30 DEG C BEHIND IT.
THE AIR WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT AND THERE MAY BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS...OR MORE
LIKELY...SMALL HAIL.

FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE
SHOWERS WILL EASE FRIDAY...HALLOWEEN EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS COULD
CHANGE IF THE MODELS SLOW THE TIMING OF WHEN THE MERGED COLD FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE. AS FOR NOW THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE TRICK-OR-TREATERS
MAY HAVE BREAKS IN THE RAIN FOR THEIR EVENING ADVENTURES.

SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER FRIDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE CASCADE
PASSES FRIDAY EVENING AS THE PRECIPITATION DWINDLES. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE PASSES WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ABOVE 5000 FEET...MAY MEASURE 2 TO
6 INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY AS A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NW. ANY CLEARING OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RADIATION FOG FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
SATURDAY MORNING. PYLE/TJ

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS INTO EASTERN OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT PROVIDING FOR WEAK
RIDGING AND ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS...THOUGH A WARM FRONTAL BAND MAY BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE NORTHERN ZONES. WHILE MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SOMETIME EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS
THAT LOOK TO KEEP THE REGION IN A WET AND FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST
MODELS...GENERALIZED ABOVE CLIMO POPS ACROSS THE CWA FOR TUE AND WED
WITH LIKELY REFINEMENT IN THE COMING DAYS AS MODELS BEGIN TO CONVERGE
ON THE DEVELOPING PATTERN.
CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA AND SATURATING LOWER
LEVELS...THUS BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATE TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS WILL BE KHIO AND IFR VSBYS
KSLE AND KAST. WITH CALM WINDS...ONP HAS ALREADY DROPPED TO LIFR
BUT SUSPECT IT MAY RECOVER SLIGHTLY WITH RAIN ONSET WITHIN NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NORTH OREGON
COAST AND WILL INDUCE A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CASCADES WITH EAST WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE AT KTTD BETWEEN
9Z AND 21Z. EXPECT LIGHTER EASTERLY WINDS AT KPDX.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR UNTIL AROUND 08Z WHEN VISUAL
APPROACHES WILL BE IMPACTED BY LOWERING CIGS. FINALLY...MIGHT SEE
A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS CLOSER TO 12Z AS A WARM FRONT NEARS THE
TERMINAL. BREEZY EAST WINDS WITH GUSTS PERHAPS 15-20 KT SHOULD
INHIBIT LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
BOWEN/JBONK

&&

.MARINE...FORECAST MOSTLY ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS LINGERING AROUND 9 FT BUT WILL
DECREASE TO AROUND 7 FT OVERNIGHT WITH TREND ALREADY VISIBLE AT
BUOY 89. SCA FOR WINDS LOOKS GOOD AS WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. TWEAKED WINDS AND WAVES A BIT BUT WITH
NO MAJOR CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. BOWEN

WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY SOUTHERLY AND LESS THAN 15 KT
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH A SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH SWINGING
NORTH ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. NOW
EXPECT A FAIRLY SOLID SMALL CRAFT WIND EVENT FOR THE OUTER WATERS
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT AROUND
MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. AN
OVERALL OFFSHORE GRADIENT SHOULD INHIBIT INNER WATER WIND SPEEDS
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK. AN INNER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS HAS
ALSO BEEN ISSUED AND LOOKS TO BE MAINLY A 20 TO 25 KT GUST
POTENTIAL EVENT.

COMBINED SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH ABOVE 10 FT AS WINDS PEAK THU
MORNING BUT FEEL IT WILL BE BRIEF AND MORE LOCALIZED IN NATURE.
THE NEXT UPPER LOW MAY SEND ANOTHER PUSH OF SEAS ABOVE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PERHAPS A STRONGER SYSTEM TUE/WED.
/JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 PM
    PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KMFR 300334
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
834 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...SOME MINOR UPDATES ARE BEING MADE THIS EVENING TO
TWEAK POPS, AND THESE WILL BE SENT OUT SHORTLY. THERE ARE SOME
SHOWERS ON RADAR, BUT NOTHING MEASURABLE HAS FALLEN AT ANY
OBSERVING SITES THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED AROUND 130W
THIS EVENING, BUT AS THE PARENT LOW TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO DIG,
THE FRONT IS BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE COAST. THIS SHOULD PUSH
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE RAIN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT, WE LOWERED POPS OVER OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS AND
RAISED THEM A BIT OVER THE NORTH COAST AND UMPQUA. LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE MAIN RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EDGING SLOWLY UP
TO THE COAST TOMORROW WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN DEVELOPING OVER
THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...SOME CLEARING IS DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. THIS HAS ALSO
RESULTED IN VFR CIGS. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, BUT IFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. VFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MOUNTAINS TO REMAIN PARTLY
OBSCURED.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT WED 29 OCT 2014...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF IT. THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT,
BUT THE LATEST RUC SHOWS WINDS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN WATERS, BUT SUSPECT IT MAY BE
OVERDONE. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A WAVE FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THURSDAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LESS WIND. FOR NOW WE`LL HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODEL RUN SHOWS THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
SOUTHWEST OF THE WATERS SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SHOWING INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELL FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WON`T LAST
LONG WITH SWELL HEIGHTS DECREASING ON SATURDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED OVER  CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND IS BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS INTO THE AREA, MAINLY WEST OF
THE CASCADES IN OREGON. MODELS HAVE DONE POORLY WITH REPRESENTING
THE PRECIPITATION AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE AS THE FRONT
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THEN OVERNIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH AND A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE COOS AND
DOUGLAS COAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND INLAND, MAINLY INTO INTERIOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY.

THEN MODELS ARE ON TRACK FOR A FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST
THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE COAST, SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS AS WELL AS
TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SHASTA AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
40 MPH. BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ALONG THE COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD INLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER AREAS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST.  THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE CASCADES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN EASTWARD FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE NAM
IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO PUSH THE FRONT INLAND AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES FRIDAY EVENING THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN LINGERING ALONG AREAS JUST WEST OF THE CASCADES
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FRIDAY.

THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE RAIN WILL BE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON
HALLOWEEN EVENING, WITH RAIN EXPECTED FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN
THE EVENING. WEST OF THE CASCADES, EXPECT RAIN DURING THE DAY
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AS A
COLD TROUGH PUSHES INLAND BEHIND THE FRONT. RAINFALL MAY BE SLOW
TO TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING IN WESTERN VALLEYS NEAR THE CASCADES
SUCH AS THE ROGUE AND SHASTA VALLEYS. ALSO SOME WEST SIDE AREAS
MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN BEFORE LIGHT SHOWERS BEGIN FRIDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND MAINLY LIGHT AND MODELS
INDICATE MUCH OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE AREA THE TROUGH DEEPENS. COOL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THOUGH
WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 4500 TO 5000 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES.

THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH
SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST SATURDAY EVENING WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS
WITH CLEARING SKIES.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR WEST OF THE CASCADES IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR FROST OVER SOME OF THE VALLEYS IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST OREGON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WE ARE WELL PAST THE
NORMAL DATE OF THE FIRST KILLING FREEZE IN MANY AREAS...SO THIS
SHOULDN`T BE UNEXPECTED. MEDFORD`S NORMAL DATE OF A FIRST FREEZE
(TEMPERATURES <= 32F) IS OCTOBER 18TH. RIGHT NOW, WE ARE GOING WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER FOG CAN FORM IN THE VALLEYS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WE THINK AREAS NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND THE
COAST ARE SAFE SINCE THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS. BUT
ENOUGH CLEARING MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE FOR FROST TO
FORM. KEEP CHECKING BACK FOR UPDATES.

MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT HEIGHTS RISE SUNDAY WITH MOST AREAS
DRYING OUT. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 OVER THE WEST SIDE AND IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 EAST SIDE.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES A BIT, ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING
OF FEATURES. THE 12Z GFS40 DEPICTS A FAST-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING THEN MOVING
INLAND TO THE EAST SIDE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS FASTER THAN ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS AND WAS A DEVIATION FROM ITS 00Z ENSEMBLES, WHICH WERE
SLOWER BRINGING IT ONSHORE. THE 12Z ECMWF MEANWHILE IS ABOUT 12
HOURS SLOWER...WITH PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT
THEN SPREADING INLAND TUESDAY. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE ECMWF HAS SPED
UP FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY, THE GOING FORECAST
WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED, WHICH KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST
SECTIONS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR NIL POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER
TUESDAY, THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$







000
FXUS65 KBOI 300231 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
831 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING NEWD INTO OREGON WITH A
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN OREGON...FRONT MOVING
NWD.  OUR SRN-MOST ZONES HAVE PARTIALLY CLEARED AND ARE ALREADY IN
THE WARM SECTOR.  CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN OTHER ZONES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN
TODAY...POSSIBLY THE LAST REALLY WARM DAYS THIS SEASON.  PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OREGON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
WRN IDAHO SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY WINDY AND MUCH COOLER WX...
ALREADY IN FORECAST.  FRONT WILL ALSO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS...SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 4500 FEET MSL SATURDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS A LITTLE LIGHT ON POST-FRONTAL WEST WINDS
SATURDAY.  WINDS MAY BE INCREASED WHEN ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...EXCEPT EAST WINDS 10-20KT AT KJER AND KTWF
BY 30/12Z. WINDS ALOFT AROUND 10K FT EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWEST AT
15-25KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN OFF THE PACIFIC.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTENSIFIES THURSDAY...IT WILL HELP INDUCE
A SOUTHEAST WIND IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP WARM
TEMPERATURES EVEN AS THE SUN FIGHTS TO GET THROUGH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS THU WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THU NIGHT A LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONTO THE PAC NW COAST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO MUCH OF SE OREGON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL AGAIN OWING TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CONTINUED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
EACH NIGHT WILL BE MILD BECAUSE OF WINDS AND CLOUDS...WITH
READINGS 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT...AND AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL SPLIT FROM THE MAIN
JET STREAM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
WILL TRACK FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
SOUTHERN IDAHO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS
TO THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS UP TO
1.00 INCH.  SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY START OUT AROUND 9000 FEET
MSL AND DROP TO 4500 FEET AS THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF. SNOW
TOTALS ABOVE 7000 FEET COULD RANGE FROM 3-6 INCHES WITH THIS
STORM WITH UP TO 8 INCHES ABOVE 9000 FEET. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
COOLEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SIT OVER THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO NE
OREGON AND THE MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE
5000 FT MSL. AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY MORNING CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL LESSEN AND THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO ABOUT 7000 FT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....KA/AB




000
FXUS66 KPDT 300225
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
725 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING
TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AFFECTING MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...NUDGING THEM UPWARD A LITTLE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS
ALREADY SOME FOG IN ELLENSBURG SO WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING
TO SEE IF AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. 78

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN TAFS SITES TONIGHT
AFFECTING KBDN...KRDM...KDLS (AND KYKM LATE TONIGHT). THERE WILL
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AT KYKM AND
TO SOME EXTENT AT KDLS. THE OTHER TAF SITES WILL SEE MID AND HIGH
OVC. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MOSTLY N-NE. OF
NOTE HOWEVER WILL BE GUSTY S-SE WINDS ALONG THE BLUE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  65  50  59 /  10  20  10  70
ALW  50  67  53  60 /  10  20  10  60
PSC  46  59  49  58 /  10  30  10  60
YKM  43  54  46  54 /  30  80  70  70
HRI  46  61  47  58 /  10  30  10  60
ELN  44  53  47  54 /  30  90  80  70
RDM  43  66  43  52 /  70  20  20  80
LGD  44  63  48  63 /  10  20  10  50
GCD  46  65  48  59 /  20  10  10  60
DLS  50  58  50  57 /  80 100  80  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78





000
FXUS66 KPDT 292315 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
415 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS BUILDING UP A TEMPORARY RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. IN DOING SO A SURGE OF MOISTURE
COMING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL BE BROUGHT UP THE COAST
OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WHILE THE EAST SEES MAINLY INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. SOME FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES FROM NORTH CENTRAL OREGON UP
TO THE KITTITAS VALLEY REGION. THE TROUGH WILL THEN PROCEED TO PUSH
A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON LATE THURSDAY AND
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY
THE CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES REGION. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROCEEDS TO
MOVE INLAND. THIS WILL PUSH A SLOW MOVING BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PRODUCING A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN AS IT DOES. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO 4500 TO 5500 FEET.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRE-FRONTAL IN THE FORM OF RAIN SO
POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND MAINLY
ABOVE 5000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING RESULTING
IN DECREASING POPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST DUE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION,
ALTHOUGH EXPECT A LOT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE RIDGE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EACH DAY. HOWEVER, THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE CRESTS OF THE OREGON CASCADES
WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME SLOP OVER RAIN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND EXITS FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY POPS WILL DECREASE FOR
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MODELS DIVERGE IN TERMS OF THE AMPLITUDE OF A RIDGE THAT
BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SO KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN ON
MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAFS SITES
UNTIL NEXT ROUND OF RAIN MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CLOUD
BASES WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS EVENING TO 7000-10000 FT AGL AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND SPREADS RAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE
EARLIEST ONSET OF RAIN SHOULD BEGIN AT KBDN AND KRDM BY 30/07Z, THEN
RAIN WILL START AT KYKM/KDLS AROUND 09Z-10Z. RAIN WILL ARRIVE AT
KPSC AROUND 30TH/12Z. KDLS AND KYKM WILL HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO REDUCED VSBY AND LOWERED CEILINGS BEGINNING AROUND 30TH/12Z.
SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AT KPDT AND KALW
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AT OTHER TAF SITES, RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND
END BETWEEN 15Z-18Z THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS AT TAF SITES WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  45  65  50  59 /  10  20  10  70
ALW  51  67  53  60 /  10  20  10  60
PSC  45  59  49  58 /  10  30  10  60
YKM  42  54  46  54 /  30  80  70  70
HRI  44  61  47  58 /  10  30  10  60
ELN  42  53  47  54 /  30  90  80  70
RDM  39  66  43  52 /  70  20  20  80
LGD  43  63  48  63 /  10  20  10  50
GCD  45  65  48  59 /  20  10  10  60
DLS  48  58  50  57 /  80 100  80  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99







000
FXUS65 KBOI 292213 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN OFF THE PACIFIC.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTENSIFIES THURSDAY...IT WILL HELP INDUCE
A SOUTHEAST WIND IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP WARM
TEMPERATURES EVEN AS THE SUN FIGHTS TO GET THROUGH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS THU WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THU NIGHT A LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONTO THE PAC NW COAST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO MUCH OF SE OREGON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL AGAIN OWING TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CONTINUED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
EACH NIGHT WILL BE MILD BECAUSE OF WINDS AND CLOUDS...WITH
READINGS 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT...AND AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL SPLIT FROM THE MAIN
JET STREAM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
WILL TRACK FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
SOUTHERN IDAHO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS
TO THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH QPF AMOUNTS UP TO 1.00 INCH.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY START OUT AROUND 9000 FEET AND DROP TO
4500 FEET AS THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF. SNOW TOTALS ABOVE 7000
FEET COULD RANGE FROM 3-6 INCHES WITH THIS STORM WITH UP TO 8
INCHES ABOVE 9000 FEET. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY
SUNDAY EVENING. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SIT OVER THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC BRINGING IN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER NE
OREGON AND THE MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE
5000 FT. AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY MORNING CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL LESSEN AND THE SNOW LEVEL WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT
7000 FT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS AND NE OREGON MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE...BECOMING EASTERLY 10-20KT BY 15Z THU IN MAGIC
VALLEY NEAR KJER AND UPPER TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K
FEET MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT TURNING TO SW 15-25KT BY 18Z THU.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....KA/AB
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS66 KPQR 292158
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
258 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH ACROSS
NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE A MOIST COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT SMALL
HAIL WITH THE SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE CASCADE PASSES...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS HAVE EASED OVER NW
OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON TODAY WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO FRONTS
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...AND A COLD
FRONT FROM THE NW.

THERE IS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS OFFSHORE AND STEER THE SOUTHERN WARM FRONT
TO THE NORTH AND ACROSS NW OREGON LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT HAS A TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH OF RAIN FOR THE COAST
AND HIGHER TERRAIN FROM AROUND 9 PM TONIGHT TO 11 AM THURSDAY..WITH
BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25 INCH FOR THE INTERIOR LOW LANDS.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL MERGE WITH
THE COLD FRONT TO THE NW THURSDAY MORNING OFFSHORE AND PUSH
ONSHORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE MORE RAIN WITH THIS FRONT AND EXPECT AROUND
1 TO 2 ADDITIONAL INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN...AND 0.5
TO 0.75 INCH FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY HYDROLOGICAL
CONCERNS FOR THE MAIN STEM RIVERS...BUT THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
AND COULD POND ON THE ROADS OR FLOOD AREAS WHERE DRAINS ARE CLOGGED.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH
SHOWERS FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE QUITE THE
CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES AND AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CHANGE FROM
NEGATIVE 16 DEG C AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NEGATIVE 30 DEG C BEHIND IT.
THE AIR WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT AND THERE MAY BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS...OR MORE
LIKELY...SMALL HAIL.

FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE
SHOWERS WILL EASE FRIDAY...HALLOWEEN EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS COULD
CHANGE IF THE MODELS SLOW THE TIMING OF WHEN THE MERGED COLD FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE. AS FOR NOW THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE TRICK-OR-TREATERS
MAY HAVE BREAKS IN THE RAIN FOR THEIR EVENING ADVENTURES.

SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER FRIDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE CASCADE
PASSES FRIDAY EVENING AS THE PRECIPITATION DWINDLES. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE PASSES WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ABOVE 5000 FEET...MAY MEASURE 2 TO
6 INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY AS A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NW. ANY CLEARING OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RADIATION FOG FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
SATURDAY MORNING. TJ

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS INTO EASTERN OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT PROVIDING FOR WEAK
RIDGING AND ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS...THOUGH A WARM FRONTAL BAND MAY BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE NORTHERN ZONES. WHILE MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SOMETIME EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS
THAT LOOK TO KEEP THE REGION IN A WET AND FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST
MODELS...GENERALIZED ABOVE CLIMO POPS ACROSS THE CWA FOR TUE AND WED
WITH LIKELY REFINEMENT IN THE COMING DAYS AS MODELS BEGIN TO CONVERGE
ON THE DEVELOPING PATTERN.
CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM SOME PESKY LOWER
END MVFR CIGS PERSISTING AROUND KTTD AND KHIO. THOSE LOWER AREAS
SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AS THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES TONIGHT BRINGING
BROAD SCALE LIFT ALONG WITH IT. RAIN THREAT INCREASES WITH RAINS
SATURATING LOWER LEVELS THUS BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR LOW MVFR TO
IFR CIGS/VSBYS 04Z TO 06Z TONIGHT AND CLOSER TO 12Z INLAND. BEST
CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS WILL BE KONP AND KHIO AND/OR IFR VSBYS AT KSLE
AND KAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST
AND WILL INDUCE A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CASCADES
WITH EAST WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT PROBABLE AT KTTD BETWEEN 14Z AND
22Z. EXPECT LESS EASTERLY WINDS AT KPDX.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR UNTIL AROUND 06Z WHEN VISUAL
APPROACHES WILL BE IMPACTED BY LOWERING CIGS. FINALLY...MIGHT SEE
A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS CLOSER TO 12Z AS A WARM FRONT NEARS THE
TERMINAL. BREEZY EAST WINDS WITH GUSTS PERHAPS 15-20 KT SHOULD
INHIBIT LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
/JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY SOUTHERLY AND LESS THAN 15 KT
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH A SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH SWINGING
NORTH ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. NOW
EXPECT A FAIRLY SOLID SMALL CRAFT WIND EVENT FOR THE OUTER WATERS
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT AROUND
MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. AN
OVERALL OFFSHORE GRADIENT SHOULD INHIBIT INNER WATER WIND SPEEDS
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK. AN INNER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS HAS
ALSO BEEN ISSUED AND LOOKS TO BE MAINLY A 20 TO 25 KT GUST
POTENTIAL EVENT.

EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. COMBINED SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH ABOVE 10 FT AS WINDS
PEAK THU MORNING BUT FEEL IT WILL BE BRIEF AND MORE LOCALIZED IN
NATURE. THE NEXT UPPER LOW MAY SEND ANOTHER PUSH OF SEAS ABOVE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PERHAPS A STRONGER SYSTEM
TUE/WED. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KMFR 292152
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
252 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED OVER  CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND IS BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS INTO THE AREA, MAINLY WEST OF
THE CASCADES IN OREGON. MODELS HAVE DONE POORLY WITH REPRESENTING
THE PRECIPITATION AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE AS THE FRONT
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THEN OVERNIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH AND A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE COOS AND
DOUGLAS COAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND INLAND, MAINLY INTO INTERIOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY.

THEN MODELS ARE ON TRACK FOR A FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST
THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE COAST, SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS AS WELL AS
TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SHASTA AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
40 MPH. BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ALONG THE COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD INLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER AREAS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST.  THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE CASCADES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN EASTWARD FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE NAM
IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO PUSH THE FRONT INLAND AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES FRIDAY EVENING THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN LINGERING ALONG AREAS JUST WEST OF THE CASCADES
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FRIDAY.

THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE RAIN WILL BE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON
HALLOWEEN EVENING, WITH RAIN EXPECTED FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN
THE EVENING. WEST OF THE CASCADES, EXPECT RAIN DURING THE DAY
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AS A
COLD TROUGH PUSHES INLAND BEHIND THE FRONT. RAINFALL MAY BE SLOW
TO TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING IN WESTERN VALLEYS NEAR THE CASCADES
SUCH AS THE ROGUE AND SHASTA VALLEYS. ALSO SOME WEST SIDE AREAS
MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN BEFORE LIGHT SHOWERS BEGIN FRIDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND MAINLY LIGHT AND MODELS
INDICATE MUCH OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE AREA THE TROUGH DEEPENS. COOL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THOUGH
WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 4500 TO 5000 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES.

THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH
SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST SATURDAY EVENING WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS
WITH CLEARING SKIES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR WEST OF THE CASCADES IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR FROST OVER SOME OF THE VALLEYS IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST OREGON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WE ARE WELL PAST THE
NORMAL DATE OF THE FIRST KILLING FREEZE IN MANY AREAS...SO THIS
SHOULDN`T BE UNEXPECTED. MEDFORD`S NORMAL DATE OF A FIRST FREEZE
(TEMPERATURES <= 32F) IS OCTOBER 18TH. RIGHT NOW, WE ARE GOING WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER FOG CAN FORM IN THE VALLEYS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WE THINK AREAS NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND THE
COAST ARE SAFE SINCE THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS. BUT
ENOUGH CLEARING MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE FOR FROST TO
FORM. KEEP CHECKING BACK FOR UPDATES.

MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT HEIGHTS RISE SUNDAY WITH MOST AREAS
DRYING OUT. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 OVER THE WEST SIDE AND IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 EAST SIDE.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES A BIT, ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING
OF FEATURES. THE 12Z GFS40 DEPICTS A FAST-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING THEN MOVING
INLAND TO THE EAST SIDE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS FASTER THAN ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS AND WAS A DEVIATION FROM ITS 00Z ENSEMBLES, WHICH WERE
SLOWER BRINGING IT ONSHORE. THE 12Z ECMWF MEANWHILE IS ABOUT 12
HOURS SLOWER...WITH PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT
THEN SPREADING INLAND TUESDAY. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE ECMWF HAS SPED
UP FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY, THE GOING FORECAST
WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED, WHICH KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST
SECTIONS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR NIL POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER
TUESDAY, THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SPILDE


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/18Z TAF CYCLE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY, SO IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL IN THE WEST
SIDE VALLEYS THROUGH LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, PATCHY
IFR FOG/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT SHOULD
BECOME VFR BY MID-MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SPILDE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT WED 29 OCT 2014...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF IT. THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT,
BUT THE LATEST RUC SHOWS WINDS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN WATERS, BUT SUSPECT IT MAY BE
OVERDONE. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A WAVE FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THURSDAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LESS WIND. FOR NOW WE`LL HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODEL RUN SHOWS THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
SOUTHWEST OF THE WATERS SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SHOWING INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELL FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WON`T LAST
LONG WITH SWELL HEIGHTS DECREASING ON SATURDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

CC/MD/MAS







000
FXUS66 KPDT 292131
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
231 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS BUILDING UP A TEMPORARY RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. IN DOING SO A SURGE OF MOISTURE
COMING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL BE BROUGHT UP THE COAST
OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WHILE THE EAST SEES MAINLY INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. SOME FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES FROM NORTH CENTRAL OREGON UP
TO THE KITTITAS VALLEY REGION. THE TROUGH WILL THEN PROCEED TO PUSH
A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON LATE THURSDAY AND
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY
THE CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES REGION. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROCEEDS TO
MOVE INLAND. THIS WILL PUSH A SLOW MOVING BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PRODUCING A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN AS IT DOES. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO 4500 TO 5500 FEET.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRE-FRONTAL IN THE FORM OF RAIN SO
POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND MAINLY
ABOVE 5000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING RESULTING
IN DECREASING POPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST DUE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION,
ALTHOUGH EXPECT A LOT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE RIDGE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EACH DAY. HOWEVER, THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE CRESTS OF THE OREGON CASCADES
WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME SLOP OVER RAIN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND EXITS FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY POPS WILL DECREASE FOR
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MODELS DIVERGE IN TERMS OF THE AMPLITUDE OF A RIDGE THAT
BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SO KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN ON
MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  POLAN


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...DENSE FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS MOST AREAS
THAT WERE IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY, WHICH EXPIRED AT 10 AM. MVFR OR
IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL 19Z AT KYKM BEFORE THE MIST ENTIRELY
BURNS OFF. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED AT TAFS SITES UNTIL NEXT ROUND OF
RAIN MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CLOUD BASES AROUND 8000 FT
AGL AT KALW WILL PERSIST THROUGH REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING WITH
OTHER TAF SITES SEEING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT. EARLIEST ONSET OF
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN AT KBDN AND KRDM BY 30/07Z, THEN RAIN STARTING AT
KYKM/KDLS AROUND 09Z-10Z. ADDED RAIN TO TAF FOR KPSC STARTING AT
20TH/12Z. KDLS AND KYKM WILL HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED
VSBY AND LOWERED CEILINGS  BEGINNING AROUND 30TH/12Z. SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AT KPDT AND KALW TONIGHT.
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF PERIOD.  POLAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  45  65  50  59 /  10  20  10  70
ALW  51  67  53  60 /  10  20  10  60
PSC  45  59  49  58 /  10  30  10  60
YKM  42  54  46  54 /  30  80  70  70
HRI  44  61  47  58 /  10  30  10  60
ELN  42  53  47  54 /  30  90  80  70
RDM  39  66  43  52 /  70  20  20  80
LGD  43  63  48  63 /  10  20  10  50
GCD  45  65  48  59 /  20  10  10  60
DLS  48  58  50  57 /  80 100  80  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99









000
FXUS65 KBOI 292041
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN OFF THE PACIFIC.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTENSIFIES THURSDAY...IT WILL HELP INDUCE
A SOUTHEAST WIND IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP WARM
TEMPERATURES EVEN AS THE SUN FIGHTS TO GET THROUGH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS THU WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THU NIGHT A LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONTO THE PAC NW COAST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO MUCH OF SE OREGON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL AGAIN OWING TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CONTINUED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
EACH NIGHT WILL BE MILD BECAUSE OF WINDS AND CLOUDS...WITH
READINGS 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT...AND AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL SPLIT FROM THE MAIN JET
STREAM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL
TRACK FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
SOUTHERN IDAHO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS
TO THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH QPF AMOUNTS UP TO 1.00 INCH.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY START OUT AROUND 9000 FEET AND DROP TO
4500 FEET AS THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF. SNOW TOTALS ABOVE 7000
FEET COULD RANGE FROM 3-6 INCHES WITH THIS STORM WITH UP TO 8
INCHES ABOVE 9000 FEET.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING
MONDAY AND A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET IN BEHIND IN. THIS
FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL A TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE IN
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A MORE SSWERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT NORMAL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD... INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON A
DAILY BASIS. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH EACH PASSING TROUGH...POSSIBLY COMING IN
THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS AND NE OREGON MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE...BECOMING EASTERLY 10-20KT BY 15Z THU IN MAGIC
VALLEY NEAR KJER AND UPPER TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K
FEET MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT TURNING TO SW 15-25KT BY 18Z THU.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....KA/AB
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 292041 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN OFF THE PACIFIC.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTENSIFIES THURSDAY...IT WILL HELP INDUCE
A SOUTHEAST WIND IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP WARM
TEMPERATURES EVEN AS THE SUN FIGHTS TO GET THROUGH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS THU WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THU NIGHT A LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONTO THE PAC NW COAST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO MUCH OF SE OREGON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL AGAIN OWING TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CONTINUED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
EACH NIGHT WILL BE MILD BECAUSE OF WINDS AND CLOUDS...WITH
READINGS 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT...AND AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL SPLIT FROM THE MAIN
JET STREAM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
WILL TRACK FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
SOUTHERN IDAHO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS
TO THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH QPF AMOUNTS UP TO 1.00 INCH.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY START OUT AROUND 9000 FEET AND DROP TO
4500 FEET AS THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF. SNOW TOTALS ABOVE 7000
FEET COULD RANGE FROM 3-6 INCHES WITH THIS STORM WITH UP TO 8
INCHES ABOVE 9000 FEET. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY
SUNDAY EVENING. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SIT OVER THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC BRINGING IN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER NE
OREGON AND THE MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE
5000 FT. AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY MORNING CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL LESSEN AND THE SNOW LEVEL WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT
7000 FT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS AND NE OREGON MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE...BECOMING EASTERLY 10-20KT BY 15Z THU IN MAGIC
VALLEY NEAR KJER AND UPPER TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K
FEET MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT TURNING TO SW 15-25KT BY 18Z THU.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....KA/AB
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS66 KPDT 291829 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1129 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEATHER SYSTEM IS DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AS A TEMPORARY RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
TODAY...HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IT WILL HAVE A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
NORTHWARD BRINGING RAIN TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MAINLY INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...DENSE FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS MOST AREAS
THAT WERE IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY, WHICH EXPIRED AT 10 AM. MVFR OR
IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL 19Z AT KYKM BEFORE THE MIST ENTIRELY
BURNS OFF. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED AT TAFS SITES UNTIL NEXT ROUND OF
RAIN MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CLOUD BASES AROUND 8000 FT
AGL AT KALW WILL PERSIST THROUGH REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING WITH
OTHER TAF SITES SEEING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT. EARLIEST ONSET OF
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN AT KBDN AND KRDM BY 30/07Z, THEN RAIN STARTING AT
KYKM/KDLS AROUND 09Z-10Z. ADDED RAIN TO TAF FOR KPSC STARTING AT
20TH/12Z. KDLS AND KYKM WILL HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED
VSBY AND LOWERED CEILINGS  BEGINNING AROUND 30TH/12Z. SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AT KPDT AND KALW TONIGHT.
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF PERIOD.  POLAN


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THESE ARE
DECREASING. PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE...TO FORM OVER THE LOWER YAKIMA VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR DENSE FOG UNTIL 10 AM FOR THAT AREA...MAINLY
NEAR THE CITY OF TOPPENISH IN THE LOWER YAKIMA VALLEY. DRYING WILL
TAKE PLACE TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND THE
CWA TODAY. HOWEVER THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
THE CASCADES...MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD MOISTURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER WESTERN AREAS WITH THIS
WARM FRONT. THEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE UPPER JET STREAM WILL BE
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL KEEP THE COLD FRONT SLOW
MOVING. THIS COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CASCADES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO REDUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE LEE OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES...I.E
OVER THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE YAKIMA/KITTITAS VALLEYS. SNOW
LEVELS OF AROUND 9000 FEET WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE THIS A RAIN
EVENT...EVEN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND THURSDAY AND THEN COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TO RESULT IN CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY. 88

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONG WAVE TROUGH
WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET.  AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END UNDER WEST
AND NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.  SOME MOISTURE
SLOPPING OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND HIGHLANDS ABOVE
3500 FEET MAY STILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE FORM OF MIXED PRECIPITATION OR SNOW.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ALONG THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND THE
HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON.

AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EASTWARD ON SUNDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE AS
WARM AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO AROUND 5000-5500 FEET.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ENTER THE REGION MONDAY WITH A NICE
MOISTURE FETCH INTO THE REGION AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES
ITSELF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  DIFFERENCES EXISTS IN THE
TRAJECTORY OF EXPECTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT MOISTURE
FETCH...BUT WILL BLEND IN CLIMO POPS INTO GRIDS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.  BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  45  61  47 /  10  10  20  10
ALW  64  51  63  52 /  10  10  20  10
PSC  62  45  58  47 /  10  10  30  20
YKM  59  42  55  43 /  10  30  70  50
HRI  63  44  59  46 /  10  10  30  20
ELN  57  42  54  43 /  10  30  80  60
RDM  62  39  62  40 /  10  70  20  30
LGD  58  43  61  46 /  10  10  20  10
GCD  59  45  63  47 /  10  20  10  10
DLS  63  48  58  50 /  10  80  80  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/88/98










000
FXUS66 KPDT 291827 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1125 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEATHER SYSTEM IS DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AS A TEMPORARY RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
TODAY...HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IT WILL HAVE A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
NORTHWARD BRINGING RAIN TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MAINLY INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...DENSE FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS MOST AREAS
THAT WERE IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY, WHICH EXPIRED AT 10 AM. MVFR OR
IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL 19Z AT KYKM BEFORE THE MIST ENTIRELY
BURNS OFF. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED AT TAFS SITES UNTIL NEXT ROUND OF
RAIN MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CLOUD BASES AROUND FT AGL AT
KALW WILL PERSIST THROUGH REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING WITH OTHER TAF
SITES SEEING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AFT 30/03Z WITH
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. EARLIEST ONSET OF RAIN SHOULD BEGIN AT KBDN
AND KRDM BY 30/07Z, THEN RAIN STARTING AT KYKM/KDLS AROUND 09Z-10Z.
ADDED RAIN TO TAF FOR KPSC STARTING AT 20TH/12Z. KDLS AND KYKM WILL
HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VSBY AND LOWERED CEILINGS
BEGINNING AROUND 30TH/12Z. SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS AT KPDT AND KALW TONIGHT. WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL
OCCUR DURING THE TAF PERIOD.  POLAN


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THESE ARE
DECREASING. PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE...TO FORM OVER THE LOWER YAKIMA VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR DENSE FOG UNTIL 10 AM FOR THAT AREA...MAINLY
NEAR THE CITY OF TOPPENISH IN THE LOWER YAKIMA VALLEY. DRYING WILL
TAKE PLACE TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND THE
CWA TODAY. HOWEVER THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
THE CASCADES...MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD MOISTURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER WESTERN AREAS WITH THIS
WARM FRONT. THEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE UPPER JET STREAM WILL BE
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL KEEP THE COLD FRONT SLOW
MOVING. THIS COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CASCADES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO REDUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE LEE OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES...I.E
OVER THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE YAKIMA/KITTITAS VALLEYS. SNOW
LEVELS OF AROUND 9000 FEET WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE THIS A RAIN
EVENT...EVEN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND THURSDAY AND THEN COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TO RESULT IN CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY. 88

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONG WAVE TROUGH
WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET.  AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END UNDER WEST
AND NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.  SOME MOISTURE
SLOPPING OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND HIGHLANDS ABOVE
3500 FEET MAY STILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE FORM OF MIXED PRECIPITATION OR SNOW.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ALONG THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND THE
HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON.

AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EASTWARD ON SUNDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE AS
WARM AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO AROUND 5000-5500 FEET.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ENTER THE REGION MONDAY WITH A NICE
MOISTURE FETCH INTO THE REGION AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES
ITSELF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  DIFFERENCES EXISTS IN THE
TRAJECTORY OF EXPECTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT MOISTURE
FETCH...BUT WILL BLEND IN CLIMO POPS INTO GRIDS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.  BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  45  61  47 /  10  10  20  10
ALW  64  51  63  52 /  10  10  20  10
PSC  62  45  58  47 /  10  10  30  20
YKM  59  42  55  43 /  10  30  70  50
HRI  63  44  59  46 /  10  10  30  20
ELN  57  42  54  43 /  10  30  80  60
RDM  62  39  62  40 /  10  70  20  30
LGD  58  43  61  46 /  10  10  20  10
GCD  59  45  63  47 /  10  20  10  10
DLS  63  48  58  50 /  10  80  80  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/88/9







000
FXUS66 KMFR 291648
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
948 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE
INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY. EXPECT LIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT LINGERS
OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND JUST EAST THIS MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS WILL SEE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAINFALL
BUT VALLEYS AND SOME AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES, MAINLY IN KLAMATH
AND EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTIES, MAY ALSO SEE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...AN OLD WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN CURRY COAST, EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
EXTENDING INLAND TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS
AND INTO SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
LIGHT RAINFALL THIS MORNING, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST, INTO WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AS WELL AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND A
WAVE ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. MODELS
SHOW AGREEMENT THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN THE EVENING
WITH AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE COAST.

OVERALL, EXPECT LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR AREAS
FROM THE CASCADES WEST TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
EVENING. SHOWERS MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
EVENING AS WELL. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE
COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY SEEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE, MODELS ARE ON TRACK FOR A FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE
COAST THURSDAY AND PUSH INLAND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE COAST, SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS AS WELL AS TO THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RAIN WILL BEGIN ALONG THE COAST BY
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER AREAS FROM THE CASCADES WEST. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN
EASTWARD FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING RAIN
IMPACTS FOR HALLOWEEN EVENING, WITH RAIN LIKELY FROM THE CASCADES
EAST IN THE EVENING. WEST OF THE CASCADES, EXPECT RAIN DURING THE
DAY. THEN MODELS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF BREAK OR AT LEAST LESS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE WEST SIDE IN THE EVENING. COOL CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS A COLD UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SHIFT
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY. EXPECT A COLD MORNING ON SUNDAY  WITH CLEARING
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, A DEVELOPING INVERSION, AND COLD AIR
LINGERING OVER THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING FROST AND FREEZE
CONDITIONS TO WEST SIDE VALLEYS. AFTER A WARMER THAN NORMAL
OCTOBER WITH REGARD TO LOW TEMPERATURES, THIS WILL IMPACT ONGOING
AGRICULTURAL AREAS. ALSO WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS SINCE ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT FROM THE TROUGH MAY ALSO BRING
A CHANCE FOR COLD NIGHTTIME AND MORNING TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION...FOR THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE BECOMING
WIDESPREAD AT THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UMPQUA BASIN. IN ADDITION
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL AS THE KLAMATH BASIN ARE ALSO SEEING
IFR CIGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS IN MANY
VALLEYS THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD BRING CIGS DOWN AT LEAST TO MVFR.
MANY TERRAIN AND LOWER MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED MOST OF THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS INTO SW
OREGON BETWEEN 16-19Z. THIS SHOULD CAUSE CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR. WITH
THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY..EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...MOST LIKELY
NOT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON FOR SW OREGON. WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO
MVFR/IFR CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS STILL PLENTIFUL. /FB

MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WED 29 OCT 2014...A STEEP WEST SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CALMER SEAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, BUT AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING GALES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY WITH WINDS DECREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE WEST.
ANOTHER LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC






000
FXUS66 KPQR 291637
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
937 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DECREASING SHOWERS TODAY...THEN RAIN RETURNS WITH HIGHER
SNOW LEVELS TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THU AND FRI. COOLER
SHOWERY WEATHER WITH SNOW ON THE PASSES OF THE CASCADES IS EXPECTED
FOR THIS WEEKEND. WET COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WITH THE MORNING
UPDATE...MAINLY ADJUSTED POPS DOWN TO THE SOUTH FOR THIS
MORNING...AND UP TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS ARE DECREASING OVER THE
AREA...BUT WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT OVER THE SW WA AND NORTHERN
OREGON CASCADES THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NOT MUCH SHOWERS FOR INLAND LANE
COUNTY...BUT THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST MAY MEASURE A COUPLE OF MORE
HUNDRETHS OF RAIN THIS MORNING. TODAY WOULD BE A GREAT DAY TO CLEAN
FALLEN LEAVES FROM STORM DRAINS. ALSO REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS...AS
THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF ANY NEAR OR OFF SHORE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO FRONTS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. A WARM
FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH...AND IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN
TO NORTHERN CA...AND A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NW. MODELS
SEEM TO BE INITIALIZING WELL WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND FORECAST THEM
TO MERGE TOGETHER OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. SOME RAIN AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NW OREGON AND POSSIBLY SW WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH TO
JOIN THE COLD FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE PERSISTENT RAIN
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF WHEN THE MAIN RAIN WILL REACH
ON SHORE BUT ALL MODELS ARE TAKING A SLOWER APPROACH OF HAVING THE
RAIN MOVE TO THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING AND SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL BE ADJUSTING THE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WANT TO WAIT UNTIL ALL OF THE
12Z MODELS ARE IN. TJ

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING EAST OF THE
CASCADES LATE FRIDAY...ALLOWING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND THE TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS INLAND. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY FALL TO NEAR PASS LEVEL
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP NEAR PASS LEVEL...NOT SEEING MANY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT WHICH
MAY ONLY BRING A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW TO THE PASSES SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...A BREAK IN THE RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT
CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE STRAY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SUNDAY A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA GENERATING
ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH THIS WARM
FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS OUR AREA...SUGGESTING RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH EXITS
THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT RAIN THREAT INCREASES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW MVFR TO
IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATER TONIGHT AND THU WITH THE NEXT WARM FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS WITH CIGS LIKELY
AT OR NEAR 025 FROM A DECK PUSHES NORTH AND EAST FROM THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THEN EXPECT VFR UNTIL LATE AROUND 06Z WHEN
VISUAL APPROACHES WILL BE IMPACTED BY LOWERING CIGS.
FINALLY...MIGHT SEE A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS CLOSER TO 12Z AS A WARM
FRONT NEARS THE TERMINAL. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DRAMATICALLY EASED AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE
WEAKENED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY
SOUTHERLY AND LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH A
SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH SWINGING NORTH ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE STRENGTH BUT IT SEEMS
SMALL CRAFT WIND SPEEDS WILL DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW
MORNING OUTSIDE OF 30 NM.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 11 FT AT 12 SECONDS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A WEST
SWELL. EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. COMBINED SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH ABOVE 10 FT AS WINDS
PEAK EARLY THU AND WILL ASSESS FURTHER FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
THE NEXT UPPER LOW MAY SEND ANOTHER PUSH OF SEAS ABOVE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PERHAPS A STRONGER SYSTEM TUE/WED.
/JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 1 PM
    PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM TO
     11 PM PDT THIS EVENING.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS65 KBOI 291557
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
957 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING...BUT THEY HAVE MOVED EAST INTO THE BOISE AND
WEST-CENTRAL MTNS AS OF 950 AM MDT. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY
AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN OFF THE PACIFIC ON WEAKLY RIDGING UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MTNS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE BOISE AND
WEST-CENTRAL MTNS. VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. WINDS ALOFT WEST AT 20-30 KTS THROUGH 10KFT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SW IDAHO THIS
MORNING SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 11Z. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS STALLED
NEAR JUST NORTHWEST OF BOISE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT AND MOVES NORTH OUR OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SETTING UP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR INCREASES SOUTHERLY WINDS /15-25 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS/. THIS SHOULD HELP GET THE TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY
AND KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST LATER IN THE WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY. THE
MODELS ARE BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY. THE FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO CROSS
SE OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SW IDAHO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO
DELAY THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION. THUS...THE FORECAST WAS
ADJUSTED TO KEEP IT DRY ACROSS SE OREGON/SW IDAHO THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SE OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND
FINALLY SPREADING THE SHOWERS INTO SW IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
INCREASING THE POPS IN SE OREGON. THE MODELS /ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/
ARE NOW HINTING AT A CLOSED LOW TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH SOUTHERN
IDAHO ON SATURDAY...THEN LIFTING IT NE INTO MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THEN FALL
TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO
PIN DOWN AMOUNTS AND WILL DEPEND ON THE LOW TRACK AND SNOW LEVELS
WHICH ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO ABOVE 6000 FEET. LATEST
MODELS DEPICT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
PROVIDING DRIER CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE MOIST
PACIFIC FLOW IS ALSO SHOWN TO REMAIN OVER WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN
OREGON...CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....BW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 291556
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
856 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...AN OLD WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN CURRY COAST, EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
EXTENDING INLAND TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS
AND INTO SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
LIGHT RAINFALL THIS MORNING, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST, INTO WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AS WELL AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND A
WAVE ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. MODELS
SHOW AGREEMENT THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN THE EVENING
WITH AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE COAST.

OVERALL, EXPECT LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR AREAS
FROM THE CASCADES WEST TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
EVENING. SHOWERS MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
EVENING AS WELL. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE
COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY SEEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE, MODELS ARE ON TRACK FOR A FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE
COAST THURSDAY AND PUSH INLAND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE COAST, SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS AS WELL AS TO THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RAIN WILL BEGIN ALONG THE COAST BY
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER AREAS FROM THE CASCADES WEST. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN
EASTWARD FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING RAIN
IMPACTS FOR HALLOWEEN EVENING, WITH RAIN LIKELY FROM THE CASCADES
EAST IN THE EVENING. WEST OF THE CASCADES, EXPECT RAIN DURING THE
DAY. THEN MODELS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF BREAK OR AT LEAST LESS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE WEST SIDE IN THE EVENING. COOL CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS A COLD UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SHIFT
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY. EXPECT A COLD MORNING ON SUNDAY  WITH CLEARING
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, A DEVELOPING INVERSION, AND COLD AIR
LINGERING OVER THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING FROST AND FREEZE
CONDITIONS TO WEST SIDE VALLEYS. AFTER A WARMER THAN NORMAL
OCTOBER WITH REGARD TO LOW TEMPERATURES, THIS WILL IMPACT ONGOING
AGRICULTURAL AREAS. ALSO WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS SINCE ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT FROM THE TROUGH MAY ALSO BRING
A CHANCE FOR COLD NIGHTTIME AND MORNING TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE BECOMING
WIDESPREAD AT THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UMPQUA BASIN. IN ADDITION
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL AS THE KLAMATH BASIN ARE ALSO SEEING
IFR CIGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS IN MANY
VALLEYS THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD BRING CIGS DOWN AT LEAST TO MVFR.
MANY TERRAIN AND LOWER MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED MOST OF THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS INTO SW
OREGON BETWEEN 16-19Z. THIS SHOULD CAUSE CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR. WITH
THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY..EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...MOST LIKELY
NOT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON FOR SW OREGON. WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO
MVFR/IFR CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS STILL PLENTIFUL. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WED 29 OCT 2014...A STEEP WEST SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CALMER SEAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, BUT AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING GALES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY WITH WINDS DECREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE WEST.
ANOTHER LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. /FB


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE  BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN, BUT HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH EACH SYSTEM, THUS
THE BIGGEST CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE ARE
MOSTLY IN REGARDS TO TIMING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE REGARDING THE SHORT TERM, BUT DESPITE SIMILAR MODEL
SOLUTIONS, THERE IS DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TERM.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WHEN TAKING IN TO CONSIDERATION THE ISSUES
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH THAT HAVE BEEN COMMON WITH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FORECAST SOLUTIONS. OVERALL, IT SEEMS THE ACTIVE AND WET
PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING LATELY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED OVER THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY HAS
WASHED OUT AS IT CROSSED THE CASCADES. THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL
TRANSITION AND LIFT NORTH TODAY AS A WARM FRONT, AND AS A RESULT,
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY, MOSTLY WEST OF THE
CASCADES. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS
APPROACH TO THE REGION. AN INTERESTING ASPECT OF THIS NEXT STORM IS
THAT IT APPEARS TO BE A DOUBLE SHOT. THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
ITS APPROACH TO THE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL SLOW AND
MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS INLAND UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE
PARENT LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD, AND A SECONDARY SURFACE
LOW FORMS JUST OFFSHORE OF OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW
THEN PUSHES INTO THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE, ALONG WITH A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH, FRIDAY NIGHT. THE END RESULT WILL BE A RAINY THURSDAY
FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGES, WITH RAIN THEN SPREADING INLAND
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN BE FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AS THE TROUGH SLIDES OVERHEAD.

NORMALLY A SYSTEM LIKE THIS WOULD BE A WIND MAKER FOR MANY LOCAL
AREAS, BUT IN THIS CASE, THE EAST SIDE WILL SEE VERY BREEZY WINDS,
BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. LIKEWISE, THE COAST
AND WEST SIDE WILL SEE ONLY SLIGHTLY BREEZIER WINDS. THIS IS MOST
LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, RESULTING
FROM THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT BEING FOLLOWED SO CLOSELY BY THE
SECOND LOW. EITHER WAY, RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHARACTERISTIC OF
THIS SYSTEM. ALSO OF NOTE, SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO BELOW 5000 FEET
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO DROP SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING THE
HIGHER PASSES, AND MUCH OF THE EAST SIDE. WHILE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT, ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK, ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM, ESTABLISHING ITS DOMINANCE OVER MOST OF THE WEST COAST BY
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, A BELT OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE
COAST TO OUR NORTH. WHILE THE BULK OF RAIN WILL LIKELY STAY WELL TO
OUR NORTH, SOME SHOWERS MAY FIND THEIR WAY ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM IS ON
TAP TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD US AROUND MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES, AT WHICH TIME VERY
COOL AIR WILL SETTLE IN. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BE THE
COLDEST SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON, ALTHOUGH THE VALUES WILL BE ONLY
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT WE WOULD NORMALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. -BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC/MD






000
FXUS66 KPDT 291517
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
818 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEATHER SYSTEM IS DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AS A TEMPORARY RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
TODAY...HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IT WILL HAVE A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
NORTHWARD BRINGING RAIN TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MAINLY INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 410 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THESE ARE
DECREASING. PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE...TO FORM OVER THE LOWER YAKIMA VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR DENSE FOG UNTIL 10 AM FOR THAT AREA...MAINLY
NEAR THE CITY OF TOPPENISH IN THE LOWER YAKIMA VALLEY. DRYING WILL
TAKE PLACE TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND THE
CWA TODAY. HOWEVER THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
THE CASCADES...MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD MOISTURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER WESTERN AREAS WITH THIS
WARM FRONT. THEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE UPPER JET STREAM WILL BE
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL KEEP THE COLD FRONT SLOW
MOVING. THIS COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CASCADES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO REDUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE LEE OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES...I.E
OVER THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE YAKIMA/KITTITAS VALLEYS. SNOW
LEVELS OF AROUND 9000 FEET WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE THIS A RAIN
EVENT...EVEN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND THURSDAY AND THEN COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TO RESULT IN CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY. 88

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONG WAVE TROUGH
WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET.  AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END UNDER WEST
AND NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.  SOME MOISTURE
SLOPPING OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND HIGHLANDS ABOVE
3500 FEET MAY STILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE FORM OF MIXED PRECIPITATION OR SNOW.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ALONG THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND THE
HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON.

AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EASTWARD ON SUNDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE AS
WARM AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO AROUND 5000-5500 FEET.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ENTER THE REGION MONDAY WITH A NICE
MOISTURE FETCH INTO THE REGION AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES
ITSELF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  DIFFERENCES EXISTS IN THE
TRAJECTORY OF EXPECTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT MOISTURE
FETCH...BUT WILL BLEND IN CLIMO POPS INTO GRIDS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.  BIEDA

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...DENSE FOG HAS FORMED DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
WITH LIFR CIG AND VIS AT KDLS AND KYKM.  FOG SHOULD DISPERSE AT
29/16Z WITH LINGERING SCT-BKN CIG AOA 4K FT AGL THRU 30/02Z AT THOSE
TAF SITES.  LINGERING CIG AOA 6K FT AGL AT KPDT/KALW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH REMAINING TAF SITES BEING CLEAR.
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE AFT 30/03Z WITH
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RAIN MAY BEGIN AFT 30/08Z AT KYKM/KDLS.
WINDS BTWN 5 TO 15 KTS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF PERIOD.  BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  45  61  47 /  10  10  20  10
ALW  64  51  63  52 /  10  10  20  10
PSC  62  45  58  47 /  10  10  30  20
YKM  59  42  55  43 /  10  30  70  50
HRI  63  44  59  46 /  10  10  30  20
ELN  57  42  54  43 /  10  30  80  60
RDM  62  39  62  40 /  10  70  20  30
LGD  58  43  61  46 /  10  10  20  10
GCD  59  45  63  47 /  10  20  10  10
DLS  63  48  58  50 /  10  80  80  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING WAZ026>028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99









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