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000
FXUS66 KPDT 012353 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
353 PM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF AND ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL LINGER IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA
MTNS THROUGH DAYBREAK. POPS WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STEADY PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS AFFECTING THE AREA. ALSO INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS BY AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...KPDT
HAS ALREADY RECEIVED 0.11 INCHES OF PRECIP THROUGH 2PM. ALSO LOWERED
SNOW LEVELS IN THE WASHINGTON FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUES
MTNS...MAINLY NEAR DAYTON AS WE HAVE BEEN GETTING REPORTS OF SNOW
FALLING DOWN TO ABOUT 1500 FEET ABOVE MSL THIS AFTERNOON HERE.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER ONE
INCH FOR ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 1500-2500 FEET. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY RISE CHANGING THE SNOW OVER TO RAIN AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING IN
THE DAYTON AREA. ADDED PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO THE COLUMBIA
BASIN BELOW 1500 MSL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 15-18Z MONDAY. AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY 12-15Z MONDAY IN CENTRAL OREGON AND PROGRESS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN BY
18-21Z MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 0.05 TO 0.10" IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN...WITH 0.10 TO 0.25"
FOR CENTRAL OREGON AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THEN CONTINUE ON AND OFF FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. BROUGHT POPS UP TO LIKELY/LOW END CATEGORICAL TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS SYSTEM...AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST POPS/QPF LOOK TO
STAY ALONG A LINE FROM THE DALLES TO PASCO AND DAYTON SOUTHWARD.
ALSO RAISED QPF AMOUNT TO 0.10 TO 0.50" SOUTH OF THE WASHINGTON
BORDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 3500 NORTH TO 5000 FEET SOUTH
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ABOVE THESE LEVELS. 77

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUMEROUS STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD REACH 2 INCHES IN THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND 2-4 INCHES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET SO THIS WILL BE
MOSTLY AN ALL RAIN EVENT. AREA RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SHARPLY
LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE LATEST GFS IS HINTING AT A
POTENTIAL WINDY DAY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...AND IN CENTRAL
OREGON WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE.

IN THE SHORTER TERM...FOR WEDNESDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE ON
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS WETTER WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE GFS IS DRY. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING A PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE AREA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN FLIP FLOPPING. FOR NOW WENT WITH
CHANCE POPS WHICH IS A LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF GIVEN ITS
CONSISTENCY. 78

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG WITH
LIGHT RAIN FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TAFS SITES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE RAIN SHOWERS TAPER OFF AND CIGS LIKELY SCATTER
OUT OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
AT KBDN..KRDM AND KDLS...LIKELY UNTIL AT LEAST 02/10Z. WATCHING FOR
SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR BR AFTER 02/10-12Z AT SEVERAL TAF
SITES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING KBDN AND KRDM
AFTER 02/15Z AND ALL OTHER TAF SITES STARTING BETWEEN 02/18-21Z
BRINGING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIGS ONCE
AGAIN. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  35  48  37  45 /  60  50  10  60
ALW  37  45  39  45 /  60  50  20  60
PSC  33  44  37  45 /  40  50  10  50
YKM  30  42  32  42 /  10  40  10  20
HRI  35  47  39  47 /  50  40  10  50
ELN  30  42  32  43 /  20  50  20  20
RDM  36  55  36  48 /  60  70  20  80
LGD  34  47  34  45 /  70  60  40  60
GCD  36  51  34  50 /  60  70  40  80
DLS  38  49  40  49 /  20  60  10  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

77/78/77







000
FXUS66 KPDT 012353 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
353 PM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF AND ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL LINGER IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA
MTNS THROUGH DAYBREAK. POPS WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STEADY PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS AFFECTING THE AREA. ALSO INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS BY AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...KPDT
HAS ALREADY RECEIVED 0.11 INCHES OF PRECIP THROUGH 2PM. ALSO LOWERED
SNOW LEVELS IN THE WASHINGTON FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUES
MTNS...MAINLY NEAR DAYTON AS WE HAVE BEEN GETTING REPORTS OF SNOW
FALLING DOWN TO ABOUT 1500 FEET ABOVE MSL THIS AFTERNOON HERE.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER ONE
INCH FOR ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 1500-2500 FEET. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY RISE CHANGING THE SNOW OVER TO RAIN AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING IN
THE DAYTON AREA. ADDED PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO THE COLUMBIA
BASIN BELOW 1500 MSL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 15-18Z MONDAY. AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY 12-15Z MONDAY IN CENTRAL OREGON AND PROGRESS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN BY
18-21Z MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 0.05 TO 0.10" IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN...WITH 0.10 TO 0.25"
FOR CENTRAL OREGON AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THEN CONTINUE ON AND OFF FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. BROUGHT POPS UP TO LIKELY/LOW END CATEGORICAL TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS SYSTEM...AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST POPS/QPF LOOK TO
STAY ALONG A LINE FROM THE DALLES TO PASCO AND DAYTON SOUTHWARD.
ALSO RAISED QPF AMOUNT TO 0.10 TO 0.50" SOUTH OF THE WASHINGTON
BORDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 3500 NORTH TO 5000 FEET SOUTH
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ABOVE THESE LEVELS. 77

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUMEROUS STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD REACH 2 INCHES IN THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND 2-4 INCHES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET SO THIS WILL BE
MOSTLY AN ALL RAIN EVENT. AREA RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SHARPLY
LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE LATEST GFS IS HINTING AT A
POTENTIAL WINDY DAY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...AND IN CENTRAL
OREGON WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE.

IN THE SHORTER TERM...FOR WEDNESDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE ON
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS WETTER WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE GFS IS DRY. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING A PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE AREA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN FLIP FLOPPING. FOR NOW WENT WITH
CHANCE POPS WHICH IS A LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF GIVEN ITS
CONSISTENCY. 78

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG WITH
LIGHT RAIN FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TAFS SITES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE RAIN SHOWERS TAPER OFF AND CIGS LIKELY SCATTER
OUT OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
AT KBDN..KRDM AND KDLS...LIKELY UNTIL AT LEAST 02/10Z. WATCHING FOR
SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR BR AFTER 02/10-12Z AT SEVERAL TAF
SITES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING KBDN AND KRDM
AFTER 02/15Z AND ALL OTHER TAF SITES STARTING BETWEEN 02/18-21Z
BRINGING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIGS ONCE
AGAIN. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  35  48  37  45 /  60  50  10  60
ALW  37  45  39  45 /  60  50  20  60
PSC  33  44  37  45 /  40  50  10  50
YKM  30  42  32  42 /  10  40  10  20
HRI  35  47  39  47 /  50  40  10  50
ELN  30  42  32  43 /  20  50  20  20
RDM  36  55  36  48 /  60  70  20  80
LGD  34  47  34  45 /  70  60  40  60
GCD  36  51  34  50 /  60  70  40  80
DLS  38  49  40  49 /  20  60  10  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

77/78/77







000
FXUS66 KPDT 012353 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
353 PM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF AND ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL LINGER IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA
MTNS THROUGH DAYBREAK. POPS WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STEADY PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS AFFECTING THE AREA. ALSO INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS BY AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...KPDT
HAS ALREADY RECEIVED 0.11 INCHES OF PRECIP THROUGH 2PM. ALSO LOWERED
SNOW LEVELS IN THE WASHINGTON FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUES
MTNS...MAINLY NEAR DAYTON AS WE HAVE BEEN GETTING REPORTS OF SNOW
FALLING DOWN TO ABOUT 1500 FEET ABOVE MSL THIS AFTERNOON HERE.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER ONE
INCH FOR ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 1500-2500 FEET. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY RISE CHANGING THE SNOW OVER TO RAIN AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING IN
THE DAYTON AREA. ADDED PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO THE COLUMBIA
BASIN BELOW 1500 MSL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 15-18Z MONDAY. AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY 12-15Z MONDAY IN CENTRAL OREGON AND PROGRESS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN BY
18-21Z MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 0.05 TO 0.10" IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN...WITH 0.10 TO 0.25"
FOR CENTRAL OREGON AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THEN CONTINUE ON AND OFF FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. BROUGHT POPS UP TO LIKELY/LOW END CATEGORICAL TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS SYSTEM...AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST POPS/QPF LOOK TO
STAY ALONG A LINE FROM THE DALLES TO PASCO AND DAYTON SOUTHWARD.
ALSO RAISED QPF AMOUNT TO 0.10 TO 0.50" SOUTH OF THE WASHINGTON
BORDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 3500 NORTH TO 5000 FEET SOUTH
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ABOVE THESE LEVELS. 77

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUMEROUS STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD REACH 2 INCHES IN THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND 2-4 INCHES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET SO THIS WILL BE
MOSTLY AN ALL RAIN EVENT. AREA RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SHARPLY
LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE LATEST GFS IS HINTING AT A
POTENTIAL WINDY DAY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...AND IN CENTRAL
OREGON WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE.

IN THE SHORTER TERM...FOR WEDNESDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE ON
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS WETTER WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE GFS IS DRY. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING A PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE AREA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN FLIP FLOPPING. FOR NOW WENT WITH
CHANCE POPS WHICH IS A LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF GIVEN ITS
CONSISTENCY. 78

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG WITH
LIGHT RAIN FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TAFS SITES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE RAIN SHOWERS TAPER OFF AND CIGS LIKELY SCATTER
OUT OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
AT KBDN..KRDM AND KDLS...LIKELY UNTIL AT LEAST 02/10Z. WATCHING FOR
SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR BR AFTER 02/10-12Z AT SEVERAL TAF
SITES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING KBDN AND KRDM
AFTER 02/15Z AND ALL OTHER TAF SITES STARTING BETWEEN 02/18-21Z
BRINGING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIGS ONCE
AGAIN. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  35  48  37  45 /  60  50  10  60
ALW  37  45  39  45 /  60  50  20  60
PSC  33  44  37  45 /  40  50  10  50
YKM  30  42  32  42 /  10  40  10  20
HRI  35  47  39  47 /  50  40  10  50
ELN  30  42  32  43 /  20  50  20  20
RDM  36  55  36  48 /  60  70  20  80
LGD  34  47  34  45 /  70  60  40  60
GCD  36  51  34  50 /  60  70  40  80
DLS  38  49  40  49 /  20  60  10  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

77/78/77







000
FXUS66 KPDT 012353 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
353 PM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF AND ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL LINGER IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA
MTNS THROUGH DAYBREAK. POPS WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STEADY PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS AFFECTING THE AREA. ALSO INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS BY AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...KPDT
HAS ALREADY RECEIVED 0.11 INCHES OF PRECIP THROUGH 2PM. ALSO LOWERED
SNOW LEVELS IN THE WASHINGTON FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUES
MTNS...MAINLY NEAR DAYTON AS WE HAVE BEEN GETTING REPORTS OF SNOW
FALLING DOWN TO ABOUT 1500 FEET ABOVE MSL THIS AFTERNOON HERE.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER ONE
INCH FOR ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 1500-2500 FEET. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY RISE CHANGING THE SNOW OVER TO RAIN AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING IN
THE DAYTON AREA. ADDED PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO THE COLUMBIA
BASIN BELOW 1500 MSL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 15-18Z MONDAY. AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY 12-15Z MONDAY IN CENTRAL OREGON AND PROGRESS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN BY
18-21Z MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 0.05 TO 0.10" IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN...WITH 0.10 TO 0.25"
FOR CENTRAL OREGON AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THEN CONTINUE ON AND OFF FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. BROUGHT POPS UP TO LIKELY/LOW END CATEGORICAL TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS SYSTEM...AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST POPS/QPF LOOK TO
STAY ALONG A LINE FROM THE DALLES TO PASCO AND DAYTON SOUTHWARD.
ALSO RAISED QPF AMOUNT TO 0.10 TO 0.50" SOUTH OF THE WASHINGTON
BORDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 3500 NORTH TO 5000 FEET SOUTH
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ABOVE THESE LEVELS. 77

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUMEROUS STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD REACH 2 INCHES IN THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND 2-4 INCHES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET SO THIS WILL BE
MOSTLY AN ALL RAIN EVENT. AREA RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SHARPLY
LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE LATEST GFS IS HINTING AT A
POTENTIAL WINDY DAY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...AND IN CENTRAL
OREGON WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE.

IN THE SHORTER TERM...FOR WEDNESDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE ON
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS WETTER WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE GFS IS DRY. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING A PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE AREA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN FLIP FLOPPING. FOR NOW WENT WITH
CHANCE POPS WHICH IS A LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF GIVEN ITS
CONSISTENCY. 78

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG WITH
LIGHT RAIN FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TAFS SITES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE RAIN SHOWERS TAPER OFF AND CIGS LIKELY SCATTER
OUT OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
AT KBDN..KRDM AND KDLS...LIKELY UNTIL AT LEAST 02/10Z. WATCHING FOR
SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR BR AFTER 02/10-12Z AT SEVERAL TAF
SITES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING KBDN AND KRDM
AFTER 02/15Z AND ALL OTHER TAF SITES STARTING BETWEEN 02/18-21Z
BRINGING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIGS ONCE
AGAIN. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  35  48  37  45 /  60  50  10  60
ALW  37  45  39  45 /  60  50  20  60
PSC  33  44  37  45 /  40  50  10  50
YKM  30  42  32  42 /  10  40  10  20
HRI  35  47  39  47 /  50  40  10  50
ELN  30  42  32  43 /  20  50  20  20
RDM  36  55  36  48 /  60  70  20  80
LGD  34  47  34  45 /  70  60  40  60
GCD  36  51  34  50 /  60  70  40  80
DLS  38  49  40  49 /  20  60  10  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

77/78/77






  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMFR 012318
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
318 PM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION... A WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME
SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ALONG THE UMPQUA DIVIDE, CASCADES AND ALSO
IN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT
RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDRETHS EAST OF THE CASCADES TO ALMOST A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS,
UMPQUA DIVIDE, AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ARE HIGH...ABOVE
7500...SO ALL THIS PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN AS RAIN. THERE WILL BE
A VERY BRIEF BREAK IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING BEFORE
ANOTHER MORE POTENT FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE BEING NUDGED TO THE NORTH BY
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGING WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A VERY POTENT WET STORM APPROACHES THE COAST EARLY
THURSDAY.

MONDAY`S FRONT WILL HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO BUMPED UP QPF AMOUNTS
SOME FOR THIS FRONT BUT NOT DRASTICALLY. SOUTH CURRY COAST CAN
EXPECT AROUND 1.25 INCHES, INLAND VALLEYS BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A
HALF AN INCH AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH EAST OF
THE CASCADES. WINDS WITH THIS FIRST FRONT WILL BE GUSTY EAST OF THE
CASCADES AROUND THE SUMMER LAKE AREA BUT NOT QUITE ADVISORY CRITERIA
LEVEL.

ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE RAIN
TO THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER FOR THE CURRY COAST
WITH TOTALS IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE USUAL HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS SUCH AS RED MOUND.
AMOUNTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE AROUND THE SAME AS
THE MONDAY FRONT. HOWEVER, WINDS WITH TUESDAY`S SYSTEM WILL BE A
BIT STRONGER AT THE 700MB LEVEL. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE
SHOWING WINDS IN THE 50 TO 55KT RANGE AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS
MORE FAVORABLE FOR WINDS TO GUST DOWN INTO THE SUMMER LAKE AREA.
BECAUSE OF THIS, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE
EAST SIDE AND IS COVERED AT NPWMFR.

SHORT LIVED RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING,
ESSENTIALLY PUSHING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE TO THE VERY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MAKING THIS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK, RELATIVELY SPEAKING. THE
ACTIVE WEATHER RESUMES THURSDAY. -MND

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WET PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL SHIFT EVEN MORE SO TO THE EAST, PUSHING THE
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO INCH
CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER
THE GUN, OR RATHER, UNDER THE FIRE HOSE. NUMEROUS WAVES, EACH WITH A
RATHER STRONG CONNECTION TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE, WILL PUSH IN TO
THE AREA, RESULTING IN A ROUGHLY 3 DAY PERIOD OF RAIN AND WIND.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND
JUDGING BY MOISTURE TRANSPORT GUIDANCE AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION,
RAINFALL WILL BE MEASURED NOT SO MUCH IN TENTHS OF AN INCH, BUT
WHOLE INCHES. THIS SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN FLOODING CONCERNS FOR
THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE BUT INCREASING
REGARDING THIS WET SCENARIO, BUT GIVEN THE DRY PERIOD LEADING UP TO
THIS EVENT AND THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THERE
DOES REMAIN SO QUESTION AS TO THE DETAILS. ALSO BEARING WATCH WILL
BE WINDS, AS THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS AT 700 MB, A GOOD
INDICATOR OF WIND GUST STRENGTH OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAY
APPROACH 80 KNOTS. THIS STORM WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. WHILE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH, LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW LESS MOISTURE AND WIND. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OF BOTH TO WARRANT A CLOSE EYE, ESPECIALLY
SINCE IT WILL FOLLOW SO CLOSELY ON THE HEELS OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FOR BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS, HAVE SPENT THE LARGE PART OF EFFORTS
TODAY REFINING THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS TO COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS.
UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE WISHING FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS, THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WARM AIR, AND SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY
NOT DROP MUCH BELOW 7000 FEET, WELL ABOVE THE PASSES AND MOST
RECREATIONAL AREAS.

FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE STORM SYSTEMS APPROACH THE
SHORT TERM, BUT THOSE MAKING PLANS FOR THE WEEKEND SHOULD BEGIN TO
PREPARE NOW FOR WHAT COULD AMOUNT TO A SIGNIFICANT WIND AND RAIN
EVENT. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 01/18Z TAF CYCLE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN INCOMING WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME WEST SIDE MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY, AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF TERRAIN
OBSCURATION. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES MORE MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 815 AM PST SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2015...LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST. MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL BUILD AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT, THEN GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ARE LIKELY AS THIS FRONT PASSES ON
MONDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK,
WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLY RESULTING IN AND EXTENDED PERIOD
OF GALES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FT DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO WIND SEAS AND FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL.
-CC/BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ085-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST
     MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MND/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 012318
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
318 PM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION... A WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME
SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ALONG THE UMPQUA DIVIDE, CASCADES AND ALSO
IN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT
RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDRETHS EAST OF THE CASCADES TO ALMOST A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS,
UMPQUA DIVIDE, AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ARE HIGH...ABOVE
7500...SO ALL THIS PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN AS RAIN. THERE WILL BE
A VERY BRIEF BREAK IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING BEFORE
ANOTHER MORE POTENT FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE BEING NUDGED TO THE NORTH BY
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGING WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A VERY POTENT WET STORM APPROACHES THE COAST EARLY
THURSDAY.

MONDAY`S FRONT WILL HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO BUMPED UP QPF AMOUNTS
SOME FOR THIS FRONT BUT NOT DRASTICALLY. SOUTH CURRY COAST CAN
EXPECT AROUND 1.25 INCHES, INLAND VALLEYS BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A
HALF AN INCH AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH EAST OF
THE CASCADES. WINDS WITH THIS FIRST FRONT WILL BE GUSTY EAST OF THE
CASCADES AROUND THE SUMMER LAKE AREA BUT NOT QUITE ADVISORY CRITERIA
LEVEL.

ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE RAIN
TO THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER FOR THE CURRY COAST
WITH TOTALS IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE USUAL HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS SUCH AS RED MOUND.
AMOUNTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE AROUND THE SAME AS
THE MONDAY FRONT. HOWEVER, WINDS WITH TUESDAY`S SYSTEM WILL BE A
BIT STRONGER AT THE 700MB LEVEL. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE
SHOWING WINDS IN THE 50 TO 55KT RANGE AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS
MORE FAVORABLE FOR WINDS TO GUST DOWN INTO THE SUMMER LAKE AREA.
BECAUSE OF THIS, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE
EAST SIDE AND IS COVERED AT NPWMFR.

SHORT LIVED RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING,
ESSENTIALLY PUSHING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE TO THE VERY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MAKING THIS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK, RELATIVELY SPEAKING. THE
ACTIVE WEATHER RESUMES THURSDAY. -MND

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WET PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL SHIFT EVEN MORE SO TO THE EAST, PUSHING THE
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO INCH
CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER
THE GUN, OR RATHER, UNDER THE FIRE HOSE. NUMEROUS WAVES, EACH WITH A
RATHER STRONG CONNECTION TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE, WILL PUSH IN TO
THE AREA, RESULTING IN A ROUGHLY 3 DAY PERIOD OF RAIN AND WIND.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND
JUDGING BY MOISTURE TRANSPORT GUIDANCE AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION,
RAINFALL WILL BE MEASURED NOT SO MUCH IN TENTHS OF AN INCH, BUT
WHOLE INCHES. THIS SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN FLOODING CONCERNS FOR
THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE BUT INCREASING
REGARDING THIS WET SCENARIO, BUT GIVEN THE DRY PERIOD LEADING UP TO
THIS EVENT AND THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THERE
DOES REMAIN SO QUESTION AS TO THE DETAILS. ALSO BEARING WATCH WILL
BE WINDS, AS THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS AT 700 MB, A GOOD
INDICATOR OF WIND GUST STRENGTH OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAY
APPROACH 80 KNOTS. THIS STORM WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. WHILE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH, LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW LESS MOISTURE AND WIND. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OF BOTH TO WARRANT A CLOSE EYE, ESPECIALLY
SINCE IT WILL FOLLOW SO CLOSELY ON THE HEELS OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FOR BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS, HAVE SPENT THE LARGE PART OF EFFORTS
TODAY REFINING THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS TO COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS.
UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE WISHING FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS, THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WARM AIR, AND SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY
NOT DROP MUCH BELOW 7000 FEET, WELL ABOVE THE PASSES AND MOST
RECREATIONAL AREAS.

FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE STORM SYSTEMS APPROACH THE
SHORT TERM, BUT THOSE MAKING PLANS FOR THE WEEKEND SHOULD BEGIN TO
PREPARE NOW FOR WHAT COULD AMOUNT TO A SIGNIFICANT WIND AND RAIN
EVENT. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 01/18Z TAF CYCLE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN INCOMING WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME WEST SIDE MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY, AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF TERRAIN
OBSCURATION. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES MORE MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 815 AM PST SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2015...LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST. MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL BUILD AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT, THEN GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ARE LIKELY AS THIS FRONT PASSES ON
MONDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK,
WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLY RESULTING IN AND EXTENDED PERIOD
OF GALES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FT DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO WIND SEAS AND FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL.
-CC/BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ085-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST
     MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MND/BPN



000
FXUS66 KPDT 012241
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
241 PM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF AND ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL LINGER IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA
MTNS THROUGH DAYBREAK. POPS WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STEADY PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS AFFECTING THE AREA. ALSO INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS BY AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...KPDT
HAS ALREADY RECEIVED 0.11 INCHES OF PRECIP THROUGH 2PM. ALSO LOWERED
SNOW LEVELS IN THE WASHINGTON FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUES
MTNS...MAINLY NEAR DAYTON AS WE HAVE BEEN GETTING REPORTS OF SNOW
FALLING DOWN TO ABOUT 1500 FEET ABOVE MSL THIS AFTERNOON HERE.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER ONE
INCH FOR ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 1500-2500 FEET. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY RISE CHANGING THE SNOW OVER TO RAIN AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING IN
THE DAYTON AREA. ADDED PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO THE COLUMBIA
BASIN BELOW 1500 MSL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 15-18Z MONDAY. AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY 12-15Z MONDAY IN CENTRAL OREGON AND PROGRESS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN BY
18-21Z MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 0.05 TO 0.10" IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN...WITH 0.10 TO 0.25"
FOR CENTRAL OREGON AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THEN CONTINUE ON AND OFF FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. BROUGHT POPS UP TO LIKELY/LOW END CATEGORICAL TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS SYSTEM...AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST POPS/QPF LOOK TO
STAY ALONG A LINE FROM THE DALLES TO PASCO AND DAYTON SOUTHWARD.
ALSO RAISED QPF AMOUNT TO 0.10 TO 0.50" SOUTH OF THE WASHINGTON
BORDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 3500 NORTH TO 5000 FEET SOUTH
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ABOVE THESE LEVELS. 77

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUMEROUS STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD REACH 2 INCHES IN THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND 2-4 INCHES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET SO THIS WILL BE
MOSTLY AN ALL RAIN EVENT. AREA RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SHARPLY
LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE LATEST GFS IS HINTING AT A
POTENTIAL WINDY DAY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...AND IN CENTRAL
OREGON WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE.

IN THE SHORTER TERM...FOR WEDNESDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE ON
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS WETTER WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE GFS IS DRY. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING A PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE AREA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN FLIP FLOPPING. FOR NOW WENT WITH
CHANCE POPS WHICH IS A LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF GIVEN ITS
CONSISTENCY. 78

&&

.PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS... LINGERING IFR/LIFR CIGS
AT KBDN...KRDM AND KPDT SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY 19-20Z TODAY AS A
SYSTEM MOVES IN MIXING OUT THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS. EXPECTING MAINLY
MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN FOR ALL TAFS SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 06Z THIS EVENING BEFORE THE RAIN SHOWERS
TAPER OFF AND CIGS LIKELY SCATTER OUT. WATCHING FOR SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR BR AFTER 02/10-12Z AT SEVERAL TAF SITES. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING KBDN AND KRDM AFTER 02/15Z BRING
STEADY LIGHT RAIN WITH BORDERLINE IFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  35  48  37  45 /  60  50  10  60
ALW  37  45  39  45 /  60  50  20  60
PSC  33  44  37  45 /  40  50  10  50
YKM  30  42  32  42 /  10  40  10  20
HRI  35  47  39  47 /  50  40  10  50
ELN  30  42  32  43 /  20  50  20  20
RDM  36  55  36  48 /  60  70  20  80
LGD  34  47  34  45 /  70  60  40  60
GCD  36  51  34  50 /  60  70  40  80
DLS  38  49  40  49 /  20  60  10  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

77/78/77








000
FXUS66 KPDT 012241
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
241 PM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF AND ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL LINGER IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA
MTNS THROUGH DAYBREAK. POPS WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STEADY PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS AFFECTING THE AREA. ALSO INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS BY AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...KPDT
HAS ALREADY RECEIVED 0.11 INCHES OF PRECIP THROUGH 2PM. ALSO LOWERED
SNOW LEVELS IN THE WASHINGTON FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUES
MTNS...MAINLY NEAR DAYTON AS WE HAVE BEEN GETTING REPORTS OF SNOW
FALLING DOWN TO ABOUT 1500 FEET ABOVE MSL THIS AFTERNOON HERE.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER ONE
INCH FOR ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 1500-2500 FEET. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY RISE CHANGING THE SNOW OVER TO RAIN AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING IN
THE DAYTON AREA. ADDED PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO THE COLUMBIA
BASIN BELOW 1500 MSL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 15-18Z MONDAY. AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY 12-15Z MONDAY IN CENTRAL OREGON AND PROGRESS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN BY
18-21Z MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 0.05 TO 0.10" IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN...WITH 0.10 TO 0.25"
FOR CENTRAL OREGON AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THEN CONTINUE ON AND OFF FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. BROUGHT POPS UP TO LIKELY/LOW END CATEGORICAL TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS SYSTEM...AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST POPS/QPF LOOK TO
STAY ALONG A LINE FROM THE DALLES TO PASCO AND DAYTON SOUTHWARD.
ALSO RAISED QPF AMOUNT TO 0.10 TO 0.50" SOUTH OF THE WASHINGTON
BORDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 3500 NORTH TO 5000 FEET SOUTH
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ABOVE THESE LEVELS. 77

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUMEROUS STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD REACH 2 INCHES IN THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND 2-4 INCHES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET SO THIS WILL BE
MOSTLY AN ALL RAIN EVENT. AREA RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SHARPLY
LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE LATEST GFS IS HINTING AT A
POTENTIAL WINDY DAY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...AND IN CENTRAL
OREGON WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE.

IN THE SHORTER TERM...FOR WEDNESDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE ON
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS WETTER WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE GFS IS DRY. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING A PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE AREA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN FLIP FLOPPING. FOR NOW WENT WITH
CHANCE POPS WHICH IS A LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF GIVEN ITS
CONSISTENCY. 78

&&

.PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS... LINGERING IFR/LIFR CIGS
AT KBDN...KRDM AND KPDT SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY 19-20Z TODAY AS A
SYSTEM MOVES IN MIXING OUT THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS. EXPECTING MAINLY
MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN FOR ALL TAFS SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 06Z THIS EVENING BEFORE THE RAIN SHOWERS
TAPER OFF AND CIGS LIKELY SCATTER OUT. WATCHING FOR SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR BR AFTER 02/10-12Z AT SEVERAL TAF SITES. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING KBDN AND KRDM AFTER 02/15Z BRING
STEADY LIGHT RAIN WITH BORDERLINE IFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  35  48  37  45 /  60  50  10  60
ALW  37  45  39  45 /  60  50  20  60
PSC  33  44  37  45 /  40  50  10  50
YKM  30  42  32  42 /  10  40  10  20
HRI  35  47  39  47 /  50  40  10  50
ELN  30  42  32  43 /  20  50  20  20
RDM  36  55  36  48 /  60  70  20  80
LGD  34  47  34  45 /  70  60  40  60
GCD  36  51  34  50 /  60  70  40  80
DLS  38  49  40  49 /  20  60  10  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

77/78/77








  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 012200 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MST RADAR SHOWED LIGHT PCPN MOVING EAST
ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES AS FAR SOUTH AS BOISE. THIS PCPN WAS ALREADY
AHEAD OF AND GREATER THAN FORECAST AND SUPPORTED THE HIGHER POPS OF
THE MET GUIDANCE VS MAV GUIDANCE.  CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH THE
WETTER NAM/MET GUIDANCE WE EXPECT MORE PCPN MAINLY IN THE EVENING
HOURS ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCH
EVEN IN MOUNTAIN AREAS.  AFTER A BREAK LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING A WETTER SYSTEM WILL COME IN FROM THE PACIFIC MONDAY WITH
PCPN REACHING OUR OREGON ZONES MIDDAY AND IDAHO ZONES MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT.  ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING MORE PCPN TUESDAY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
MONDAY/S PCPN BUT STILL AFFECTING ALL OUR ZONES.  SNOW LEVEL WILL
RANGE FROM 4500 FEET MSL NORTH TO 5500 FEET SOUTH DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING/S PCPN...AND 5000 FEET NORTH TO 6000 FEET SOUTH
DURING TUESDAY/S PCPN.  LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIR WILL DEVELOP PATCHY
FOG TONIGHT...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH MORE PCPN SHOULD DEVELOP
MORE EXTENSIVE FOG MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  SLIGHT WARMING
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
RANGE FROM 4000 TO 5000 FEET MSL ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 7000 FEET
SOUTH...CAUSING BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEYS. DRIER
OVERALL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHILE A TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AGAIN BY FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE THREAT OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AND LOW
ELEVATION RAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE NOTABLE...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO RISE TO 6000 TO 7500 FEET MSL
AND REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM KTWF TO KBNO. SNOW LEVELS 5-6K FT MSL NEAR THE NEVADA
BORDER...LOWERING TO 3-4K FT MSL NEAR KBKE AND KMYL. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT PATCHY FOG WILL FORM
IN THE VALLEYS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL ON MONDAY RISING TO 6-7K FT MSL NEAR
NEVADA TO 4-5K FT MSL NEAR KBKE AND KMYL. SE TO SW SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT 15-30 KTS THROUGH 10K
FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....TL/DD
AVIATION.....TL



000
FXUS65 KBOI 012200 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MST RADAR SHOWED LIGHT PCPN MOVING EAST
ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES AS FAR SOUTH AS BOISE. THIS PCPN WAS ALREADY
AHEAD OF AND GREATER THAN FORECAST AND SUPPORTED THE HIGHER POPS OF
THE MET GUIDANCE VS MAV GUIDANCE.  CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH THE
WETTER NAM/MET GUIDANCE WE EXPECT MORE PCPN MAINLY IN THE EVENING
HOURS ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCH
EVEN IN MOUNTAIN AREAS.  AFTER A BREAK LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING A WETTER SYSTEM WILL COME IN FROM THE PACIFIC MONDAY WITH
PCPN REACHING OUR OREGON ZONES MIDDAY AND IDAHO ZONES MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT.  ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING MORE PCPN TUESDAY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
MONDAY/S PCPN BUT STILL AFFECTING ALL OUR ZONES.  SNOW LEVEL WILL
RANGE FROM 4500 FEET MSL NORTH TO 5500 FEET SOUTH DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING/S PCPN...AND 5000 FEET NORTH TO 6000 FEET SOUTH
DURING TUESDAY/S PCPN.  LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIR WILL DEVELOP PATCHY
FOG TONIGHT...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH MORE PCPN SHOULD DEVELOP
MORE EXTENSIVE FOG MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  SLIGHT WARMING
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
RANGE FROM 4000 TO 5000 FEET MSL ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 7000 FEET
SOUTH...CAUSING BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEYS. DRIER
OVERALL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHILE A TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AGAIN BY FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE THREAT OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AND LOW
ELEVATION RAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE NOTABLE...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO RISE TO 6000 TO 7500 FEET MSL
AND REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM KTWF TO KBNO. SNOW LEVELS 5-6K FT MSL NEAR THE NEVADA
BORDER...LOWERING TO 3-4K FT MSL NEAR KBKE AND KMYL. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT PATCHY FOG WILL FORM
IN THE VALLEYS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL ON MONDAY RISING TO 6-7K FT MSL NEAR
NEVADA TO 4-5K FT MSL NEAR KBKE AND KMYL. SE TO SW SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT 15-30 KTS THROUGH 10K
FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....TL/DD
AVIATION.....TL




000
FXUS65 KBOI 012200 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MST RADAR SHOWED LIGHT PCPN MOVING EAST
ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES AS FAR SOUTH AS BOISE. THIS PCPN WAS ALREADY
AHEAD OF AND GREATER THAN FORECAST AND SUPPORTED THE HIGHER POPS OF
THE MET GUIDANCE VS MAV GUIDANCE.  CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH THE
WETTER NAM/MET GUIDANCE WE EXPECT MORE PCPN MAINLY IN THE EVENING
HOURS ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCH
EVEN IN MOUNTAIN AREAS.  AFTER A BREAK LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING A WETTER SYSTEM WILL COME IN FROM THE PACIFIC MONDAY WITH
PCPN REACHING OUR OREGON ZONES MIDDAY AND IDAHO ZONES MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT.  ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING MORE PCPN TUESDAY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
MONDAY/S PCPN BUT STILL AFFECTING ALL OUR ZONES.  SNOW LEVEL WILL
RANGE FROM 4500 FEET MSL NORTH TO 5500 FEET SOUTH DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING/S PCPN...AND 5000 FEET NORTH TO 6000 FEET SOUTH
DURING TUESDAY/S PCPN.  LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIR WILL DEVELOP PATCHY
FOG TONIGHT...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH MORE PCPN SHOULD DEVELOP
MORE EXTENSIVE FOG MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  SLIGHT WARMING
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
RANGE FROM 4000 TO 5000 FEET MSL ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 7000 FEET
SOUTH...CAUSING BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEYS. DRIER
OVERALL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHILE A TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AGAIN BY FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE THREAT OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AND LOW
ELEVATION RAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE NOTABLE...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO RISE TO 6000 TO 7500 FEET MSL
AND REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM KTWF TO KBNO. SNOW LEVELS 5-6K FT MSL NEAR THE NEVADA
BORDER...LOWERING TO 3-4K FT MSL NEAR KBKE AND KMYL. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT PATCHY FOG WILL FORM
IN THE VALLEYS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL ON MONDAY RISING TO 6-7K FT MSL NEAR
NEVADA TO 4-5K FT MSL NEAR KBKE AND KMYL. SE TO SW SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT 15-30 KTS THROUGH 10K
FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....TL/DD
AVIATION.....TL



000
FXUS65 KBOI 012200 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MST RADAR SHOWED LIGHT PCPN MOVING EAST
ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES AS FAR SOUTH AS BOISE. THIS PCPN WAS ALREADY
AHEAD OF AND GREATER THAN FORECAST AND SUPPORTED THE HIGHER POPS OF
THE MET GUIDANCE VS MAV GUIDANCE.  CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH THE
WETTER NAM/MET GUIDANCE WE EXPECT MORE PCPN MAINLY IN THE EVENING
HOURS ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCH
EVEN IN MOUNTAIN AREAS.  AFTER A BREAK LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING A WETTER SYSTEM WILL COME IN FROM THE PACIFIC MONDAY WITH
PCPN REACHING OUR OREGON ZONES MIDDAY AND IDAHO ZONES MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT.  ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING MORE PCPN TUESDAY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
MONDAY/S PCPN BUT STILL AFFECTING ALL OUR ZONES.  SNOW LEVEL WILL
RANGE FROM 4500 FEET MSL NORTH TO 5500 FEET SOUTH DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING/S PCPN...AND 5000 FEET NORTH TO 6000 FEET SOUTH
DURING TUESDAY/S PCPN.  LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIR WILL DEVELOP PATCHY
FOG TONIGHT...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH MORE PCPN SHOULD DEVELOP
MORE EXTENSIVE FOG MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  SLIGHT WARMING
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
RANGE FROM 4000 TO 5000 FEET MSL ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 7000 FEET
SOUTH...CAUSING BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEYS. DRIER
OVERALL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHILE A TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AGAIN BY FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE THREAT OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AND LOW
ELEVATION RAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE NOTABLE...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO RISE TO 6000 TO 7500 FEET MSL
AND REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM KTWF TO KBNO. SNOW LEVELS 5-6K FT MSL NEAR THE NEVADA
BORDER...LOWERING TO 3-4K FT MSL NEAR KBKE AND KMYL. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT PATCHY FOG WILL FORM
IN THE VALLEYS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL ON MONDAY RISING TO 6-7K FT MSL NEAR
NEVADA TO 4-5K FT MSL NEAR KBKE AND KMYL. SE TO SW SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT 15-30 KTS THROUGH 10K
FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....TL/DD
AVIATION.....TL



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 012155
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
155 PM PST SUN FEB  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS..SHOWERS WILL LINGER..MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES EARLY THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND
WEDNESDAY. AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP LATE IN THE
WEEK AND THERE IS POTENTIALLY FOR MUCH HIGHER RAINFALL ANOTHER SERIES
OF FRONTS THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON TODAY. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SHOWERS ARE LINGERING OVER THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THINK THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. THE COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES MEASURED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5 INCH OF RAIN SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND 0.25 INCH.

LOWERING SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATE THAT SNOW LEVELS ARE BEGINNING
TO LOWER. EXPECT THE SNOW LEVELS TO BE AROUND 5500 FEET...BUT THE
AVAILABLE HIGHER ELEVATION WEB CAMS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SNOW YET...SO
MY ESTIMATION MAY BE A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET TO HIGH. EXPECT THE SNOW
LEVELS TO LOWER TO AROUND 4500 FEET FOR THE SW WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING AS THIS
COOLER AIR MOVES IN...BUT IT MAY NOT RISE MUCH BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN MONDAY MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC WITH
A LOT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND IT. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A
STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO WEST OF HAWAII. THE
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO FEED THIS MOISTURE TO OUR AREA...WITH A
SERIES OF SYSTEMS BRINGING PRECIPITATION.

THE NEXT FRONT IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA
MONDAY. THIS FRONT HAS A LITTLE MORE OOMPH TO IT THAN TODAYS...AND
EXPECT 0.75 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FOR THE COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADES
MONDAY WITH 0.4 TO 0.75 INCHES FOR THE LOW LANDS. AREAS SOUTH OF
SALEM ARE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE HIGHER TOTALS THAN NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
THE SNOW LEVELS FOR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES MAY NOT RISE MUCH BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN...AND AREAS AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FEET MAY
SEE 2 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. IF THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD THERE MAY EVEN BE HIGHER TOTALS THAN THAT...BUT THIS SEEMS
UNLIKELY FOR NOW.

THIS FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY WITH JUST SHOWERS REMAINING
FOR THE CASCADES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL AGAIN LOWER
BEHIND THIS FRONT BACK DOWN TO 4500 FEET FOR THE SW WASHINGTON AND
THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES. THESE SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH WILL NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SNOW IMPACTS. THE SNOW LEVELS TO THE SOUTH...OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5500 FEET.  FOR THE CENTRAL
OREGON CASCADES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FOCUSED RAIN SURGE ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING. TJ

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND FORECAST AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER
THE AREA AS A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE
APPEARS THAT A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA FOR LIGHT
RAIN DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE. THEN A  PERIOD OF MUCH WETTER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A SWATH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF ATMOSPHERIC WAVES SETS
UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAS OF PRIMARY QPF FOCUS REMAIN
RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THAT THE REALLY HIGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL SET UP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT THEY DO
NOT ALWAYS FORECAST THESE SITUATIONS VERY WELL...AND WE WILL MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING IN THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...CIGS HAVE LOWERED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR AND IFR CIGS AROUND 500-1500 FT.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z-08Z TONIGHT BEFORE RAIN
INCREASES AGAIN WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT POSSIBLE SPOTS
OF IFR/LIFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BEFORE LIGHT RAIN SPREADS INLAND AFTER
14Z MON. EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE WILL DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR AND IFR CIGS BETWEEN 500-1500 FT WILL
PERSIST THIS EVENING. COULD SEE CIGS LOWER BELOW 500 FT IN FOG/LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT FROM 06Z-12Z. GUSTY EAST WINDS NEAR KTTD WILL
DIMINISH BY 02Z-05Z. RAIN SPREADS INLAND AFTER 14Z MON. /27
&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE SOUTHWEST-WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS HOLDING BETWEEN 5-6 FT.
EXPECT QUIETER CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
SECOND...STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WILL SEE SEAS INCREASING TO 10-11 FT
MONDAY...ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT LIKELY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MIDDAY MONDAY. HAVE ISSUED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE MONDAY SYSTEM.

WINDS AND SEAS START TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY...BRINGING SEAS BACK
DOWN TO AROUND 7 TO 8 FT BY MIDWEEK AS SHORT-LIVED HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN EVEN
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...WHICH COULD
GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD GET IRONED OUT AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
-MCCOY/27
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST
     MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM
     TO 6 AM PST MONDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 012155
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
155 PM PST SUN FEB  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS..SHOWERS WILL LINGER..MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES EARLY THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND
WEDNESDAY. AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP LATE IN THE
WEEK AND THERE IS POTENTIALLY FOR MUCH HIGHER RAINFALL ANOTHER SERIES
OF FRONTS THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON TODAY. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SHOWERS ARE LINGERING OVER THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THINK THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. THE COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES MEASURED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5 INCH OF RAIN SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND 0.25 INCH.

LOWERING SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATE THAT SNOW LEVELS ARE BEGINNING
TO LOWER. EXPECT THE SNOW LEVELS TO BE AROUND 5500 FEET...BUT THE
AVAILABLE HIGHER ELEVATION WEB CAMS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SNOW YET...SO
MY ESTIMATION MAY BE A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET TO HIGH. EXPECT THE SNOW
LEVELS TO LOWER TO AROUND 4500 FEET FOR THE SW WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING AS THIS
COOLER AIR MOVES IN...BUT IT MAY NOT RISE MUCH BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN MONDAY MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC WITH
A LOT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND IT. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A
STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO WEST OF HAWAII. THE
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO FEED THIS MOISTURE TO OUR AREA...WITH A
SERIES OF SYSTEMS BRINGING PRECIPITATION.

THE NEXT FRONT IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA
MONDAY. THIS FRONT HAS A LITTLE MORE OOMPH TO IT THAN TODAYS...AND
EXPECT 0.75 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FOR THE COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADES
MONDAY WITH 0.4 TO 0.75 INCHES FOR THE LOW LANDS. AREAS SOUTH OF
SALEM ARE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE HIGHER TOTALS THAN NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
THE SNOW LEVELS FOR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES MAY NOT RISE MUCH BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN...AND AREAS AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FEET MAY
SEE 2 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. IF THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD THERE MAY EVEN BE HIGHER TOTALS THAN THAT...BUT THIS SEEMS
UNLIKELY FOR NOW.

THIS FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY WITH JUST SHOWERS REMAINING
FOR THE CASCADES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL AGAIN LOWER
BEHIND THIS FRONT BACK DOWN TO 4500 FEET FOR THE SW WASHINGTON AND
THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES. THESE SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH WILL NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SNOW IMPACTS. THE SNOW LEVELS TO THE SOUTH...OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5500 FEET.  FOR THE CENTRAL
OREGON CASCADES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FOCUSED RAIN SURGE ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING. TJ

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND FORECAST AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER
THE AREA AS A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE
APPEARS THAT A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA FOR LIGHT
RAIN DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE. THEN A  PERIOD OF MUCH WETTER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A SWATH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF ATMOSPHERIC WAVES SETS
UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAS OF PRIMARY QPF FOCUS REMAIN
RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THAT THE REALLY HIGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL SET UP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT THEY DO
NOT ALWAYS FORECAST THESE SITUATIONS VERY WELL...AND WE WILL MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING IN THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...CIGS HAVE LOWERED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR AND IFR CIGS AROUND 500-1500 FT.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z-08Z TONIGHT BEFORE RAIN
INCREASES AGAIN WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT POSSIBLE SPOTS
OF IFR/LIFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BEFORE LIGHT RAIN SPREADS INLAND AFTER
14Z MON. EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE WILL DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR AND IFR CIGS BETWEEN 500-1500 FT WILL
PERSIST THIS EVENING. COULD SEE CIGS LOWER BELOW 500 FT IN FOG/LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT FROM 06Z-12Z. GUSTY EAST WINDS NEAR KTTD WILL
DIMINISH BY 02Z-05Z. RAIN SPREADS INLAND AFTER 14Z MON. /27
&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE SOUTHWEST-WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS HOLDING BETWEEN 5-6 FT.
EXPECT QUIETER CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
SECOND...STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WILL SEE SEAS INCREASING TO 10-11 FT
MONDAY...ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT LIKELY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MIDDAY MONDAY. HAVE ISSUED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE MONDAY SYSTEM.

WINDS AND SEAS START TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY...BRINGING SEAS BACK
DOWN TO AROUND 7 TO 8 FT BY MIDWEEK AS SHORT-LIVED HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN EVEN
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...WHICH COULD
GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD GET IRONED OUT AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
-MCCOY/27
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST
     MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM
     TO 6 AM PST MONDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 012155
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
155 PM PST SUN FEB  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS..SHOWERS WILL LINGER..MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES EARLY THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND
WEDNESDAY. AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP LATE IN THE
WEEK AND THERE IS POTENTIALLY FOR MUCH HIGHER RAINFALL ANOTHER SERIES
OF FRONTS THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON TODAY. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SHOWERS ARE LINGERING OVER THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THINK THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. THE COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES MEASURED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5 INCH OF RAIN SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND 0.25 INCH.

LOWERING SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATE THAT SNOW LEVELS ARE BEGINNING
TO LOWER. EXPECT THE SNOW LEVELS TO BE AROUND 5500 FEET...BUT THE
AVAILABLE HIGHER ELEVATION WEB CAMS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SNOW YET...SO
MY ESTIMATION MAY BE A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET TO HIGH. EXPECT THE SNOW
LEVELS TO LOWER TO AROUND 4500 FEET FOR THE SW WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING AS THIS
COOLER AIR MOVES IN...BUT IT MAY NOT RISE MUCH BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN MONDAY MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC WITH
A LOT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND IT. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A
STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO WEST OF HAWAII. THE
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO FEED THIS MOISTURE TO OUR AREA...WITH A
SERIES OF SYSTEMS BRINGING PRECIPITATION.

THE NEXT FRONT IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA
MONDAY. THIS FRONT HAS A LITTLE MORE OOMPH TO IT THAN TODAYS...AND
EXPECT 0.75 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FOR THE COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADES
MONDAY WITH 0.4 TO 0.75 INCHES FOR THE LOW LANDS. AREAS SOUTH OF
SALEM ARE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE HIGHER TOTALS THAN NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
THE SNOW LEVELS FOR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES MAY NOT RISE MUCH BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN...AND AREAS AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FEET MAY
SEE 2 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. IF THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD THERE MAY EVEN BE HIGHER TOTALS THAN THAT...BUT THIS SEEMS
UNLIKELY FOR NOW.

THIS FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY WITH JUST SHOWERS REMAINING
FOR THE CASCADES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL AGAIN LOWER
BEHIND THIS FRONT BACK DOWN TO 4500 FEET FOR THE SW WASHINGTON AND
THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES. THESE SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH WILL NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SNOW IMPACTS. THE SNOW LEVELS TO THE SOUTH...OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5500 FEET.  FOR THE CENTRAL
OREGON CASCADES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FOCUSED RAIN SURGE ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING. TJ

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND FORECAST AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER
THE AREA AS A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE
APPEARS THAT A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA FOR LIGHT
RAIN DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE. THEN A  PERIOD OF MUCH WETTER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A SWATH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF ATMOSPHERIC WAVES SETS
UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAS OF PRIMARY QPF FOCUS REMAIN
RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THAT THE REALLY HIGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL SET UP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT THEY DO
NOT ALWAYS FORECAST THESE SITUATIONS VERY WELL...AND WE WILL MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING IN THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...CIGS HAVE LOWERED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR AND IFR CIGS AROUND 500-1500 FT.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z-08Z TONIGHT BEFORE RAIN
INCREASES AGAIN WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT POSSIBLE SPOTS
OF IFR/LIFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BEFORE LIGHT RAIN SPREADS INLAND AFTER
14Z MON. EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE WILL DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR AND IFR CIGS BETWEEN 500-1500 FT WILL
PERSIST THIS EVENING. COULD SEE CIGS LOWER BELOW 500 FT IN FOG/LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT FROM 06Z-12Z. GUSTY EAST WINDS NEAR KTTD WILL
DIMINISH BY 02Z-05Z. RAIN SPREADS INLAND AFTER 14Z MON. /27
&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE SOUTHWEST-WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS HOLDING BETWEEN 5-6 FT.
EXPECT QUIETER CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
SECOND...STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WILL SEE SEAS INCREASING TO 10-11 FT
MONDAY...ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT LIKELY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MIDDAY MONDAY. HAVE ISSUED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE MONDAY SYSTEM.

WINDS AND SEAS START TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY...BRINGING SEAS BACK
DOWN TO AROUND 7 TO 8 FT BY MIDWEEK AS SHORT-LIVED HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN EVEN
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...WHICH COULD
GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD GET IRONED OUT AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
-MCCOY/27
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST
     MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM
     TO 6 AM PST MONDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 012155
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
155 PM PST SUN FEB  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS..SHOWERS WILL LINGER..MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES EARLY THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND
WEDNESDAY. AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP LATE IN THE
WEEK AND THERE IS POTENTIALLY FOR MUCH HIGHER RAINFALL ANOTHER SERIES
OF FRONTS THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON TODAY. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SHOWERS ARE LINGERING OVER THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THINK THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. THE COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES MEASURED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5 INCH OF RAIN SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND 0.25 INCH.

LOWERING SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATE THAT SNOW LEVELS ARE BEGINNING
TO LOWER. EXPECT THE SNOW LEVELS TO BE AROUND 5500 FEET...BUT THE
AVAILABLE HIGHER ELEVATION WEB CAMS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SNOW YET...SO
MY ESTIMATION MAY BE A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET TO HIGH. EXPECT THE SNOW
LEVELS TO LOWER TO AROUND 4500 FEET FOR THE SW WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING AS THIS
COOLER AIR MOVES IN...BUT IT MAY NOT RISE MUCH BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN MONDAY MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC WITH
A LOT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND IT. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A
STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO WEST OF HAWAII. THE
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO FEED THIS MOISTURE TO OUR AREA...WITH A
SERIES OF SYSTEMS BRINGING PRECIPITATION.

THE NEXT FRONT IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA
MONDAY. THIS FRONT HAS A LITTLE MORE OOMPH TO IT THAN TODAYS...AND
EXPECT 0.75 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FOR THE COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADES
MONDAY WITH 0.4 TO 0.75 INCHES FOR THE LOW LANDS. AREAS SOUTH OF
SALEM ARE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE HIGHER TOTALS THAN NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
THE SNOW LEVELS FOR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES MAY NOT RISE MUCH BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN...AND AREAS AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FEET MAY
SEE 2 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. IF THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD THERE MAY EVEN BE HIGHER TOTALS THAN THAT...BUT THIS SEEMS
UNLIKELY FOR NOW.

THIS FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY WITH JUST SHOWERS REMAINING
FOR THE CASCADES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL AGAIN LOWER
BEHIND THIS FRONT BACK DOWN TO 4500 FEET FOR THE SW WASHINGTON AND
THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES. THESE SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH WILL NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SNOW IMPACTS. THE SNOW LEVELS TO THE SOUTH...OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5500 FEET.  FOR THE CENTRAL
OREGON CASCADES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FOCUSED RAIN SURGE ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING. TJ

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND FORECAST AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER
THE AREA AS A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE
APPEARS THAT A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA FOR LIGHT
RAIN DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE. THEN A  PERIOD OF MUCH WETTER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A SWATH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF ATMOSPHERIC WAVES SETS
UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAS OF PRIMARY QPF FOCUS REMAIN
RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THAT THE REALLY HIGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL SET UP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT THEY DO
NOT ALWAYS FORECAST THESE SITUATIONS VERY WELL...AND WE WILL MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING IN THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...CIGS HAVE LOWERED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR AND IFR CIGS AROUND 500-1500 FT.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z-08Z TONIGHT BEFORE RAIN
INCREASES AGAIN WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT POSSIBLE SPOTS
OF IFR/LIFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BEFORE LIGHT RAIN SPREADS INLAND AFTER
14Z MON. EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE WILL DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR AND IFR CIGS BETWEEN 500-1500 FT WILL
PERSIST THIS EVENING. COULD SEE CIGS LOWER BELOW 500 FT IN FOG/LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT FROM 06Z-12Z. GUSTY EAST WINDS NEAR KTTD WILL
DIMINISH BY 02Z-05Z. RAIN SPREADS INLAND AFTER 14Z MON. /27
&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE SOUTHWEST-WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS HOLDING BETWEEN 5-6 FT.
EXPECT QUIETER CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
SECOND...STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WILL SEE SEAS INCREASING TO 10-11 FT
MONDAY...ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT LIKELY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MIDDAY MONDAY. HAVE ISSUED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE MONDAY SYSTEM.

WINDS AND SEAS START TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY...BRINGING SEAS BACK
DOWN TO AROUND 7 TO 8 FT BY MIDWEEK AS SHORT-LIVED HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN EVEN
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...WHICH COULD
GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD GET IRONED OUT AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
-MCCOY/27
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST
     MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM
     TO 6 AM PST MONDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 012155
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
155 PM PST SUN FEB  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS..SHOWERS WILL LINGER..MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES EARLY THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND
WEDNESDAY. AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP LATE IN THE
WEEK AND THERE IS POTENTIALLY FOR MUCH HIGHER RAINFALL ANOTHER SERIES
OF FRONTS THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON TODAY. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SHOWERS ARE LINGERING OVER THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THINK THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. THE COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES MEASURED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5 INCH OF RAIN SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND 0.25 INCH.

LOWERING SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATE THAT SNOW LEVELS ARE BEGINNING
TO LOWER. EXPECT THE SNOW LEVELS TO BE AROUND 5500 FEET...BUT THE
AVAILABLE HIGHER ELEVATION WEB CAMS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SNOW YET...SO
MY ESTIMATION MAY BE A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET TO HIGH. EXPECT THE SNOW
LEVELS TO LOWER TO AROUND 4500 FEET FOR THE SW WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING AS THIS
COOLER AIR MOVES IN...BUT IT MAY NOT RISE MUCH BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN MONDAY MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC WITH
A LOT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND IT. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A
STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO WEST OF HAWAII. THE
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO FEED THIS MOISTURE TO OUR AREA...WITH A
SERIES OF SYSTEMS BRINGING PRECIPITATION.

THE NEXT FRONT IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA
MONDAY. THIS FRONT HAS A LITTLE MORE OOMPH TO IT THAN TODAYS...AND
EXPECT 0.75 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FOR THE COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADES
MONDAY WITH 0.4 TO 0.75 INCHES FOR THE LOW LANDS. AREAS SOUTH OF
SALEM ARE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE HIGHER TOTALS THAN NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
THE SNOW LEVELS FOR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES MAY NOT RISE MUCH BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN...AND AREAS AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FEET MAY
SEE 2 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. IF THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD THERE MAY EVEN BE HIGHER TOTALS THAN THAT...BUT THIS SEEMS
UNLIKELY FOR NOW.

THIS FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY WITH JUST SHOWERS REMAINING
FOR THE CASCADES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL AGAIN LOWER
BEHIND THIS FRONT BACK DOWN TO 4500 FEET FOR THE SW WASHINGTON AND
THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES. THESE SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH WILL NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SNOW IMPACTS. THE SNOW LEVELS TO THE SOUTH...OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5500 FEET.  FOR THE CENTRAL
OREGON CASCADES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FOCUSED RAIN SURGE ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING. TJ

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND FORECAST AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER
THE AREA AS A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE
APPEARS THAT A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA FOR LIGHT
RAIN DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE. THEN A  PERIOD OF MUCH WETTER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A SWATH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF ATMOSPHERIC WAVES SETS
UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAS OF PRIMARY QPF FOCUS REMAIN
RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THAT THE REALLY HIGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL SET UP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT THEY DO
NOT ALWAYS FORECAST THESE SITUATIONS VERY WELL...AND WE WILL MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING IN THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...CIGS HAVE LOWERED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR AND IFR CIGS AROUND 500-1500 FT.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z-08Z TONIGHT BEFORE RAIN
INCREASES AGAIN WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT POSSIBLE SPOTS
OF IFR/LIFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BEFORE LIGHT RAIN SPREADS INLAND AFTER
14Z MON. EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE WILL DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR AND IFR CIGS BETWEEN 500-1500 FT WILL
PERSIST THIS EVENING. COULD SEE CIGS LOWER BELOW 500 FT IN FOG/LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT FROM 06Z-12Z. GUSTY EAST WINDS NEAR KTTD WILL
DIMINISH BY 02Z-05Z. RAIN SPREADS INLAND AFTER 14Z MON. /27
&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE SOUTHWEST-WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS HOLDING BETWEEN 5-6 FT.
EXPECT QUIETER CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
SECOND...STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WILL SEE SEAS INCREASING TO 10-11 FT
MONDAY...ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT LIKELY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MIDDAY MONDAY. HAVE ISSUED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE MONDAY SYSTEM.

WINDS AND SEAS START TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY...BRINGING SEAS BACK
DOWN TO AROUND 7 TO 8 FT BY MIDWEEK AS SHORT-LIVED HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN EVEN
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...WHICH COULD
GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD GET IRONED OUT AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
-MCCOY/27
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST
     MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM
     TO 6 AM PST MONDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 012155
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
155 PM PST SUN FEB  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS..SHOWERS WILL LINGER..MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES EARLY THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND
WEDNESDAY. AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP LATE IN THE
WEEK AND THERE IS POTENTIALLY FOR MUCH HIGHER RAINFALL ANOTHER SERIES
OF FRONTS THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON TODAY. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SHOWERS ARE LINGERING OVER THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THINK THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. THE COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES MEASURED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5 INCH OF RAIN SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND 0.25 INCH.

LOWERING SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATE THAT SNOW LEVELS ARE BEGINNING
TO LOWER. EXPECT THE SNOW LEVELS TO BE AROUND 5500 FEET...BUT THE
AVAILABLE HIGHER ELEVATION WEB CAMS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SNOW YET...SO
MY ESTIMATION MAY BE A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET TO HIGH. EXPECT THE SNOW
LEVELS TO LOWER TO AROUND 4500 FEET FOR THE SW WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING AS THIS
COOLER AIR MOVES IN...BUT IT MAY NOT RISE MUCH BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN MONDAY MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC WITH
A LOT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND IT. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A
STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO WEST OF HAWAII. THE
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO FEED THIS MOISTURE TO OUR AREA...WITH A
SERIES OF SYSTEMS BRINGING PRECIPITATION.

THE NEXT FRONT IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA
MONDAY. THIS FRONT HAS A LITTLE MORE OOMPH TO IT THAN TODAYS...AND
EXPECT 0.75 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FOR THE COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADES
MONDAY WITH 0.4 TO 0.75 INCHES FOR THE LOW LANDS. AREAS SOUTH OF
SALEM ARE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE HIGHER TOTALS THAN NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
THE SNOW LEVELS FOR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES MAY NOT RISE MUCH BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN...AND AREAS AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FEET MAY
SEE 2 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. IF THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD THERE MAY EVEN BE HIGHER TOTALS THAN THAT...BUT THIS SEEMS
UNLIKELY FOR NOW.

THIS FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY WITH JUST SHOWERS REMAINING
FOR THE CASCADES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL AGAIN LOWER
BEHIND THIS FRONT BACK DOWN TO 4500 FEET FOR THE SW WASHINGTON AND
THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES. THESE SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH WILL NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SNOW IMPACTS. THE SNOW LEVELS TO THE SOUTH...OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5500 FEET.  FOR THE CENTRAL
OREGON CASCADES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FOCUSED RAIN SURGE ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING. TJ

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND FORECAST AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER
THE AREA AS A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE
APPEARS THAT A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA FOR LIGHT
RAIN DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE. THEN A  PERIOD OF MUCH WETTER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A SWATH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF ATMOSPHERIC WAVES SETS
UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAS OF PRIMARY QPF FOCUS REMAIN
RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THAT THE REALLY HIGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL SET UP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT THEY DO
NOT ALWAYS FORECAST THESE SITUATIONS VERY WELL...AND WE WILL MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING IN THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...CIGS HAVE LOWERED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR AND IFR CIGS AROUND 500-1500 FT.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z-08Z TONIGHT BEFORE RAIN
INCREASES AGAIN WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT POSSIBLE SPOTS
OF IFR/LIFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BEFORE LIGHT RAIN SPREADS INLAND AFTER
14Z MON. EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE WILL DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR AND IFR CIGS BETWEEN 500-1500 FT WILL
PERSIST THIS EVENING. COULD SEE CIGS LOWER BELOW 500 FT IN FOG/LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT FROM 06Z-12Z. GUSTY EAST WINDS NEAR KTTD WILL
DIMINISH BY 02Z-05Z. RAIN SPREADS INLAND AFTER 14Z MON. /27
&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE SOUTHWEST-WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS HOLDING BETWEEN 5-6 FT.
EXPECT QUIETER CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
SECOND...STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WILL SEE SEAS INCREASING TO 10-11 FT
MONDAY...ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT LIKELY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MIDDAY MONDAY. HAVE ISSUED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE MONDAY SYSTEM.

WINDS AND SEAS START TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY...BRINGING SEAS BACK
DOWN TO AROUND 7 TO 8 FT BY MIDWEEK AS SHORT-LIVED HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN EVEN
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...WHICH COULD
GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD GET IRONED OUT AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
-MCCOY/27
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST
     MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM
     TO 6 AM PST MONDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 012150
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MST RADAR SHOWED LIGHT PCPN MOVING EAST
ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES AS FAR SOUTH AS BOISE. THIS PCPN WAS ALREADY
AHEAD OF AND GREATER THAN FORECAST AND SUPPORTED THE HIGHER POPS OF
THE MET GUIDANCE VS MAV GUIDANCE.  CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH THE
WETTER NAM/MET GUIDANCE WE EXPECT MORE PCPN MAINLY IN THE EVENING
HOURS ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCH
EVEN IN MOUNTAIN AREAS.  AFTER A BREAK LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING A WETTER SYSTEM WILL COME IN FROM THE PACIFIC MONDAY WITH
PCPN REACHING OUR OREGON ZONES MIDDAY AND IDAHO ZONES MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT.  ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING MORE PCPN TUESDAY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
MONDAY/S PCPN BUT STILL AFFECTING ALL OUR ZONES.  SNOW LEVEL WILL
RANGE FROM 4500 FEET MSL NORTH TO 5500 FEET SOUTH DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING/S PCPN...AND 5000 FEET NORTH TO 6000 FEET DURING
TUESDAY/S PCPN.  LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIR WILL DEVELOP PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH MORE PCPN SHOULD DEVELOP
MORE EXTENSIVE FOG MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  SLIGHT WARMING
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
RANGE FROM 4000 TO 5000 FEET MSL ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 7000 FEET
SOUTH...CAUSING BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEYS. DRIER
OVERALL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHILE A TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AGAIN BY FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE THREAT OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AND LOW
ELEVATION RAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE NOTABLE...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO RISE TO 6000 TO 7500 FEET MSL
AND REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM KTWF TO KBNO. SNOW LEVELS 5-6K FT MSL NEAR THE NEVADA
BORDER...LOWERING TO 3-4K FT MSL NEAR KBKE AND KMYL. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT PATCHY FOG WILL FORM
IN THE VALLEYS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL ON MONDAY RISING TO 6-7K FT MSL NEAR
NEVADA TO 4-5K FT MSL NEAR KBKE AND KMYL. SE TO SW SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT 15-30 KTS THROUGH 10K
FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....TL/DD
AVIATION.....TL



000
FXUS65 KBOI 012150
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MST RADAR SHOWED LIGHT PCPN MOVING EAST
ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES AS FAR SOUTH AS BOISE. THIS PCPN WAS ALREADY
AHEAD OF AND GREATER THAN FORECAST AND SUPPORTED THE HIGHER POPS OF
THE MET GUIDANCE VS MAV GUIDANCE.  CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH THE
WETTER NAM/MET GUIDANCE WE EXPECT MORE PCPN MAINLY IN THE EVENING
HOURS ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCH
EVEN IN MOUNTAIN AREAS.  AFTER A BREAK LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING A WETTER SYSTEM WILL COME IN FROM THE PACIFIC MONDAY WITH
PCPN REACHING OUR OREGON ZONES MIDDAY AND IDAHO ZONES MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT.  ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING MORE PCPN TUESDAY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
MONDAY/S PCPN BUT STILL AFFECTING ALL OUR ZONES.  SNOW LEVEL WILL
RANGE FROM 4500 FEET MSL NORTH TO 5500 FEET SOUTH DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING/S PCPN...AND 5000 FEET NORTH TO 6000 FEET DURING
TUESDAY/S PCPN.  LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIR WILL DEVELOP PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH MORE PCPN SHOULD DEVELOP
MORE EXTENSIVE FOG MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  SLIGHT WARMING
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
RANGE FROM 4000 TO 5000 FEET MSL ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 7000 FEET
SOUTH...CAUSING BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEYS. DRIER
OVERALL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHILE A TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AGAIN BY FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE THREAT OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AND LOW
ELEVATION RAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE NOTABLE...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO RISE TO 6000 TO 7500 FEET MSL
AND REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM KTWF TO KBNO. SNOW LEVELS 5-6K FT MSL NEAR THE NEVADA
BORDER...LOWERING TO 3-4K FT MSL NEAR KBKE AND KMYL. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT PATCHY FOG WILL FORM
IN THE VALLEYS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL ON MONDAY RISING TO 6-7K FT MSL NEAR
NEVADA TO 4-5K FT MSL NEAR KBKE AND KMYL. SE TO SW SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT 15-30 KTS THROUGH 10K
FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....TL/DD
AVIATION.....TL



000
FXUS65 KBOI 012150
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MST RADAR SHOWED LIGHT PCPN MOVING EAST
ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES AS FAR SOUTH AS BOISE. THIS PCPN WAS ALREADY
AHEAD OF AND GREATER THAN FORECAST AND SUPPORTED THE HIGHER POPS OF
THE MET GUIDANCE VS MAV GUIDANCE.  CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH THE
WETTER NAM/MET GUIDANCE WE EXPECT MORE PCPN MAINLY IN THE EVENING
HOURS ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCH
EVEN IN MOUNTAIN AREAS.  AFTER A BREAK LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING A WETTER SYSTEM WILL COME IN FROM THE PACIFIC MONDAY WITH
PCPN REACHING OUR OREGON ZONES MIDDAY AND IDAHO ZONES MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT.  ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING MORE PCPN TUESDAY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
MONDAY/S PCPN BUT STILL AFFECTING ALL OUR ZONES.  SNOW LEVEL WILL
RANGE FROM 4500 FEET MSL NORTH TO 5500 FEET SOUTH DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING/S PCPN...AND 5000 FEET NORTH TO 6000 FEET DURING
TUESDAY/S PCPN.  LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIR WILL DEVELOP PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH MORE PCPN SHOULD DEVELOP
MORE EXTENSIVE FOG MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  SLIGHT WARMING
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
RANGE FROM 4000 TO 5000 FEET MSL ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 7000 FEET
SOUTH...CAUSING BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEYS. DRIER
OVERALL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHILE A TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AGAIN BY FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE THREAT OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AND LOW
ELEVATION RAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE NOTABLE...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO RISE TO 6000 TO 7500 FEET MSL
AND REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM KTWF TO KBNO. SNOW LEVELS 5-6K FT MSL NEAR THE NEVADA
BORDER...LOWERING TO 3-4K FT MSL NEAR KBKE AND KMYL. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT PATCHY FOG WILL FORM
IN THE VALLEYS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL ON MONDAY RISING TO 6-7K FT MSL NEAR
NEVADA TO 4-5K FT MSL NEAR KBKE AND KMYL. SE TO SW SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT 15-30 KTS THROUGH 10K
FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....TL/DD
AVIATION.....TL



000
FXUS65 KBOI 012150
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MST RADAR SHOWED LIGHT PCPN MOVING EAST
ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES AS FAR SOUTH AS BOISE. THIS PCPN WAS ALREADY
AHEAD OF AND GREATER THAN FORECAST AND SUPPORTED THE HIGHER POPS OF
THE MET GUIDANCE VS MAV GUIDANCE.  CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH THE
WETTER NAM/MET GUIDANCE WE EXPECT MORE PCPN MAINLY IN THE EVENING
HOURS ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCH
EVEN IN MOUNTAIN AREAS.  AFTER A BREAK LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING A WETTER SYSTEM WILL COME IN FROM THE PACIFIC MONDAY WITH
PCPN REACHING OUR OREGON ZONES MIDDAY AND IDAHO ZONES MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT.  ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING MORE PCPN TUESDAY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
MONDAY/S PCPN BUT STILL AFFECTING ALL OUR ZONES.  SNOW LEVEL WILL
RANGE FROM 4500 FEET MSL NORTH TO 5500 FEET SOUTH DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING/S PCPN...AND 5000 FEET NORTH TO 6000 FEET DURING
TUESDAY/S PCPN.  LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIR WILL DEVELOP PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH MORE PCPN SHOULD DEVELOP
MORE EXTENSIVE FOG MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  SLIGHT WARMING
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
RANGE FROM 4000 TO 5000 FEET MSL ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 7000 FEET
SOUTH...CAUSING BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEYS. DRIER
OVERALL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHILE A TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AGAIN BY FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE THREAT OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AND LOW
ELEVATION RAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE NOTABLE...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO RISE TO 6000 TO 7500 FEET MSL
AND REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM KTWF TO KBNO. SNOW LEVELS 5-6K FT MSL NEAR THE NEVADA
BORDER...LOWERING TO 3-4K FT MSL NEAR KBKE AND KMYL. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT PATCHY FOG WILL FORM
IN THE VALLEYS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL ON MONDAY RISING TO 6-7K FT MSL NEAR
NEVADA TO 4-5K FT MSL NEAR KBKE AND KMYL. SE TO SW SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT 15-30 KTS THROUGH 10K
FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....TL/DD
AVIATION.....TL



000
FXUS66 KPDT 011758 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
957 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING A RELATIVELY HIGH POP BUT LOW QPF EVENT
TO OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN IS ALREADY SPREADING EAST OF THE
CASCADES AS ANTICIPATED. FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT IN CENTRAL
OREGON SO PLAN ON EITHER CANCELING OR LETTING THE FREEZING FOG
ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS MORNING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS... LINGERING IFR/LIFR CIGS AT KBDN...KRDM AND
KPDT SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY 19-20Z TODAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN MIXING
OUT THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS. EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOR ALL TAFS SITES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 06Z
THIS EVENING BEFORE THE RAIN SHOWERS TAPER OFF AND CIGS LIKELY
SCATTER OUT. WATCHING FOR SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR BR AFTER
02/10-12Z AT SEVERAL TAF SITES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING KBDN AND KRDM AFTER 02/15Z BRING STEADY LIGHT RAIN WITH
BORDERLINE IFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  41  36  49  38 /  50  40  60  30
ALW  42  39  49  40 /  50  40  60  30
PSC  43  34  48  38 /  40  30  60  20
YKM  41  32  45  33 /  30  20  60  20
HRI  43  36  49  40 /  40  30  60  20
ELN  40  31  43  33 /  40  20  60  20
RDM  48  36  53  35 /  40  30  70  20
LGD  42  34  46  35 /  40  50  70  40
GCD  43  33  49  33 /  40  40  60  30
DLS  44  38  49  40 /  50  30  70  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ511.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78/77








000
FXUS66 KPDT 011758 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
957 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING A RELATIVELY HIGH POP BUT LOW QPF EVENT
TO OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN IS ALREADY SPREADING EAST OF THE
CASCADES AS ANTICIPATED. FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT IN CENTRAL
OREGON SO PLAN ON EITHER CANCELING OR LETTING THE FREEZING FOG
ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS MORNING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS... LINGERING IFR/LIFR CIGS AT KBDN...KRDM AND
KPDT SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY 19-20Z TODAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN MIXING
OUT THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS. EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOR ALL TAFS SITES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 06Z
THIS EVENING BEFORE THE RAIN SHOWERS TAPER OFF AND CIGS LIKELY
SCATTER OUT. WATCHING FOR SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR BR AFTER
02/10-12Z AT SEVERAL TAF SITES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING KBDN AND KRDM AFTER 02/15Z BRING STEADY LIGHT RAIN WITH
BORDERLINE IFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  41  36  49  38 /  50  40  60  30
ALW  42  39  49  40 /  50  40  60  30
PSC  43  34  48  38 /  40  30  60  20
YKM  41  32  45  33 /  30  20  60  20
HRI  43  36  49  40 /  40  30  60  20
ELN  40  31  43  33 /  40  20  60  20
RDM  48  36  53  35 /  40  30  70  20
LGD  42  34  46  35 /  40  50  70  40
GCD  43  33  49  33 /  40  40  60  30
DLS  44  38  49  40 /  50  30  70  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ511.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78/77









000
FXUS66 KPQR 011640
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
838 AM PST SUN FEB  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE CASCADES THIS
EVENING AS SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO CLOSE TO THE CASCADE PASSES. A MUCH
WETTER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. COMPUTER
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW HIGH VARIABILITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS A BRIEF DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO A MUCH WETTER PATTERN LATE
IN THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...A COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING RAIN OVER NW OREGON AND SW
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS MOVING QUITE FAST BUT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF IT...THAT SHOULD
SUSTAIN RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW LEVELS ARE GENERALLY HIGH...BUT COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO
SCOUR OUT AT A FEW LOCATIONS. MANY AREAS OF THE UPPER HOOD RIVER ARE
STILL REPORTING BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES LIKE BUCK CREEK AND DRY
CREEK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING FREEZING
RAIN...BUT HAVE NOT HAD ANY REPORTS TO CONFIRM OR DENY IT. HAVE ADDED
A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY FOR THIS
MORNING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS MOSTLY REMAINING
OVER THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER AT THIS TIME DOWN TO AROUND
4500 FEET FOR THE SW WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND TO
5500 FEET FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE..MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET. TJ

FROM PREVIOUS SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM. MAIN MODEL DISCREPANCIES LIE IN
THE TIMING AND FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST QPF. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A BIT
FASTER AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST QPF OVER SWRN OREGON MON MORNING. GFS
HAS THE QPF BULLS-EYE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WHILE THE NAM IS JUST A
TOUCH MORE N THAN THE GFS. NAM ALSO ALSO DEVELOPS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SURFACE LOW NEAR BUOY 029 18Z MON WHILE THE GFS HAS IT A BIT WEAKER
AND FURTHER N. BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH WIND WOULD DEVELOP IF THE NAM
VERIFIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. NAM ALSO SHOWS A SHARPER AND
MORE DYNAMIC COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD ALSO BREAK THROUGH VALLEY
INVERSIONS AND WARM UP THE LOWLANDS CONSIDERABLY...JUST BEFORE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ADDITION...00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE OF 400-800 J/KG JUST ABOVE
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. THERE IS THE SLIM POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOME SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOW DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN THE UNSTABLE LAYER. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

TOTAL QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 1.5
INCHES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND 0.25 TO 0.75 FOR THE LOWLANDS. MODELS
THEN START TO DIVERGE MON NIGHT AND BEYOND. THE ECMWF BRINGS A WARM
FRONT INTO SWRN OREGON TUE MORNING....AS DOES THE NAM BUT IT HAS IT A
LITTLE MORE TO THE S...CLOSER TO THE CALIFORNIA BORDER. THE GFS IS
MORE IN BETWEEN THE TWO. THIS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS N
TUE AFTERNOON...BUT STAYS S OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BY 00Z WED.
THUS...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MUCH LOWER IN THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON
CASCADES TUE...COMPARED TO AREAS S OF MT. JEFFERSON. WEISHAAR

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SOLUTIONS VARY IN
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE GFS INDICATES AN UPPER RIDGE RETURNING TO
THE PACIFIC NW WED WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS A REMNANT WARM-FRONTAL
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. THERE IS A THE GEM IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE GFS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE WED AND WED NIGHT PERIODS...MAINLY TO TRIM POPS A BIT. SHOULD
THE GFS PAN OUT...FURTHER REDUCTION WOULD BE NECESSARY AND WOULD ALSO
NEED TO CONSIDER THE INCLUSION OF NIGHT NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. MODELS ARE IN SURPRISING AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF MUCH WETTER WEATHER
WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS A SWATH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF
ATMOSPHERIC WAVES SETS UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
WILL LIKELY BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAS OF
PRIMARY QPF FOCUS REMAIN RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE AFTER 18Z TODAY. LIFR CIGS AT
KEUG PERSIST...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AT LEAST BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO THE GORGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS. EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A
TRANSITION TO SHOWERS NEAR 23Z. /27
&&

.MARINE...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED A BIT MORE THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS ORIGINALLY INDICATING WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...SO HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO
25 KT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS START TO
INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FT TODAY.

A SECOND...STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO INCREASE SEAS TO 10 TO 12 FT. WINDS
AND SEAS START TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY...BRINGING SEAS BACK DOWN TO
AROUND 7 TO 8 FT BY MIDWEEK AS SHORT-LIVED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN EVEN
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...WHICH COULD
GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD GET IRONED OUT AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
-MCCOY/27
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 011640
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
838 AM PST SUN FEB  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE CASCADES THIS
EVENING AS SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO CLOSE TO THE CASCADE PASSES. A MUCH
WETTER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. COMPUTER
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW HIGH VARIABILITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS A BRIEF DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO A MUCH WETTER PATTERN LATE
IN THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...A COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING RAIN OVER NW OREGON AND SW
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS MOVING QUITE FAST BUT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF IT...THAT SHOULD
SUSTAIN RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW LEVELS ARE GENERALLY HIGH...BUT COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO
SCOUR OUT AT A FEW LOCATIONS. MANY AREAS OF THE UPPER HOOD RIVER ARE
STILL REPORTING BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES LIKE BUCK CREEK AND DRY
CREEK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING FREEZING
RAIN...BUT HAVE NOT HAD ANY REPORTS TO CONFIRM OR DENY IT. HAVE ADDED
A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY FOR THIS
MORNING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS MOSTLY REMAINING
OVER THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER AT THIS TIME DOWN TO AROUND
4500 FEET FOR THE SW WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND TO
5500 FEET FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE..MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET. TJ

FROM PREVIOUS SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM. MAIN MODEL DISCREPANCIES LIE IN
THE TIMING AND FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST QPF. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A BIT
FASTER AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST QPF OVER SWRN OREGON MON MORNING. GFS
HAS THE QPF BULLS-EYE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WHILE THE NAM IS JUST A
TOUCH MORE N THAN THE GFS. NAM ALSO ALSO DEVELOPS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SURFACE LOW NEAR BUOY 029 18Z MON WHILE THE GFS HAS IT A BIT WEAKER
AND FURTHER N. BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH WIND WOULD DEVELOP IF THE NAM
VERIFIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. NAM ALSO SHOWS A SHARPER AND
MORE DYNAMIC COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD ALSO BREAK THROUGH VALLEY
INVERSIONS AND WARM UP THE LOWLANDS CONSIDERABLY...JUST BEFORE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ADDITION...00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE OF 400-800 J/KG JUST ABOVE
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. THERE IS THE SLIM POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOME SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOW DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN THE UNSTABLE LAYER. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

TOTAL QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 1.5
INCHES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND 0.25 TO 0.75 FOR THE LOWLANDS. MODELS
THEN START TO DIVERGE MON NIGHT AND BEYOND. THE ECMWF BRINGS A WARM
FRONT INTO SWRN OREGON TUE MORNING....AS DOES THE NAM BUT IT HAS IT A
LITTLE MORE TO THE S...CLOSER TO THE CALIFORNIA BORDER. THE GFS IS
MORE IN BETWEEN THE TWO. THIS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS N
TUE AFTERNOON...BUT STAYS S OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BY 00Z WED.
THUS...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MUCH LOWER IN THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON
CASCADES TUE...COMPARED TO AREAS S OF MT. JEFFERSON. WEISHAAR

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SOLUTIONS VARY IN
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE GFS INDICATES AN UPPER RIDGE RETURNING TO
THE PACIFIC NW WED WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS A REMNANT WARM-FRONTAL
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. THERE IS A THE GEM IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE GFS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE WED AND WED NIGHT PERIODS...MAINLY TO TRIM POPS A BIT. SHOULD
THE GFS PAN OUT...FURTHER REDUCTION WOULD BE NECESSARY AND WOULD ALSO
NEED TO CONSIDER THE INCLUSION OF NIGHT NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. MODELS ARE IN SURPRISING AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF MUCH WETTER WEATHER
WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS A SWATH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF
ATMOSPHERIC WAVES SETS UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
WILL LIKELY BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAS OF
PRIMARY QPF FOCUS REMAIN RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE AFTER 18Z TODAY. LIFR CIGS AT
KEUG PERSIST...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AT LEAST BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO THE GORGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS. EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A
TRANSITION TO SHOWERS NEAR 23Z. /27
&&

.MARINE...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED A BIT MORE THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS ORIGINALLY INDICATING WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...SO HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO
25 KT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS START TO
INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FT TODAY.

A SECOND...STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO INCREASE SEAS TO 10 TO 12 FT. WINDS
AND SEAS START TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY...BRINGING SEAS BACK DOWN TO
AROUND 7 TO 8 FT BY MIDWEEK AS SHORT-LIVED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN EVEN
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...WHICH COULD
GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD GET IRONED OUT AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
-MCCOY/27
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 011639
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
839 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...BUMPED UP POPS THIS MORNING PARTICULARLY FOR THE
MEDFORD AREA AND ALSO REMOVED FOG WORDING FOR THE WEST SIDE
VALLEYS. NO OTHER UPDATES WERE MADE AS THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK. RADAR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH A
FEW SITES MEASURING A COUPLE HUNDRETHS AT BEST. THE 01/12Z KMFR
SOUNDING SHOWS A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION
HAS MADE IT TO THE GROUND HERE AT THE KMFR AIRPORT. SUSPECT THAT
WHAT IS FALLING IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND ALBEIT VERY LIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TOTALS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
MND

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 01/12Z TAF CYCLE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED MVFR VISIBILITIES IN PATCHY
FOG FOR INLAND WEST SIDE VALLEYS THROUGH 16Z. THEN AN INCOMING WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME WEST SIDE MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY, MAINLY COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. ALSO EXPECT PARTIAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS CASCADES WEST TODAY. THEN THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS AREAS
OF RAIN CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 815 AM PST SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2015...LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST. MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL BUILD AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT, THEN GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ARE LIKELY AS THIS FRONT PASSES ON
MONDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK,
WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLY RESULTING IN AND EXTENDED PERIOD
OF GALES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FT DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO WIND SEAS AND FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL.
-CC/BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...TODAY REPRESENTS A TRANSITION DAY TOWARDS AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN AFTER WEEKS OF GENERALLY STAGNANT WEATHER. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA...FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. THIS FRONT WILL MIX UP THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO END THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORIES BY
THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND...MORE POTENT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE CURRY COUNTY COAST...A QUARTER INCH
TO MOST WEST SIDE VALLEYS...AND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE
EAST SIDE. THESE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE VIRTUALLY ALL RAIN...WITH SNOW LEVELS AT 7500
FEET AND HIGHER. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
700MB FLOW REACHING 50KT FROM THE WEST ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
MODELS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL MONDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND
THEN GET RE-ENERGIZED AS ANOTHER SHOT OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING...WAVING NORTH AND BRINGING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE CASCADES.
WE HAVE FAVORED THE HEAVIER RAIN SOLUTIONS OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR
THIS PERIOD...THOUGH HAVE TEMPERED THEM A LITTLE BY BLENDING SOME
OF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. WINDS WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH 700MB WINDS PEAKING AT 55KT PER THE GFS...SO
EAST SIDE WINDS WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE MET...OR MORE. RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES COULD GET UNSEASONABLY WARM IN VALLEYS IF FOG DOES
NOT DEVELOP...AND DENSE FOG LOOKS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT STRONG
INVERSIONS REALLY WON`T HAVE TIME TO SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING A HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WIND EVENT. GEFS-BASED TOOLS THAT HELP GAUGE HOW SIGNIFICANT
A RAIN EVENT WILL BE ARE SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A ONCE-IN-TEN-
YEAR TYPE EVENT FOR THE COAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL. RIVERS ARE
CURRENTLY WELL BELOW NORMAL IN TERMS OF STREAMFLOW...SO ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR FLOODING...BUT DO BELIEVE THERE IS STILL
SOME POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL RIVER OR STREAM FLOODING IF THE VERY WET
GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES. CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE MARINE IMPACTS WITH
GALES AND POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST...HIGH
TERRAIN...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST SIDE DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

MND/NSK/CC



000
FXUS65 KBOI 011602
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
902 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS CAME IN DURING THE NIGHT AND HALTED
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA.
LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING WERE 25 TO 30 AT MOST SITES.  SOME
EASTERN BASINS GOT QUITE COLD...FAIRFIELD WAS 5 BELOW ZERO.
CLOUDS ALSO LIMITED FOG FORMATION BUT THERE WERE PATCHES IN ERN
ZONES.  PACIFIC TROUGH HAS COME ONSHORE IN OREGON AND LOOKS MOIST
ENOUGH FOR LIGHT PCPN IN OUR CWA LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
HIGHER MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER THAN MAV POPS WHICH CAN HARDLY SEE
ANY PCPN...ALTHOUGH THE RAW GFS DOES OUTPUT SOME IN OUR CWA TONIGHT.
PCPN-TYPE TONIGHT SHOULD BE RAIN BELOW 4000 FEET MSL...MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET...AND SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET.
AFTER A BREAK MONDAY MORNING A STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING
MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW LEVEL HOLDING
STEADY.  ENOUGH QPF IN NRN MOUNTAINS FOR A FOOT OF NEW SNOW THROUGH
TUESDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET MSL. VALLEYS WILL HAVE GENERALLY .10 INCH OR
LESS QPF LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT UP TO .30 INCH IN NRN-MOST
VALLEYS. QPF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE HEAVIER... GENERALLY
.25 TO .50 INCH IN IDAHO NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN AND .05 TO .25
INCH IN THE SNAKE BASIN AND SOUTH.  SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN OREGON...
GREATEST IN BAKER COUNTY.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ON ALL THIS
...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW AFTER 20Z. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY 4500-5500 FT MSL NEAR
THE NEVADA BORDER...LOWERING TO 3000-4000 FT MSL NEAR KBKE AND KMYL.
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. SE TO SW SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BY MONDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT
VALLEY RAIN /SOME AREAS RAIN-SHADOWED/ AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING NORTHERN ZONES A THREAT OF RAIN OR SNOW TODAY
AND ANOTHER BIT STRONGER SYSTEM CROSSES SE OREGON THIS EVENING AND
WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES SW IDAHO TONIGHT...DUE TO THE LONG WAVE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT MOUNTAINS
WILL COOL OFF FROM RECENT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SNOW LEVELS
GENERALLY 3500 TO 4500 FEET NORTH AND 5500-6500 FEET SOUTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WET CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUMPS
MOISTURE INLAND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 4500 FT TO 6500 FT
MSL FOR PERIODS OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEYS.
DRIER OVERALL ON THURSDAY...AS A PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND OVER
OREGON/IDAHO. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS QUICKLY EASTWARD AND MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW /ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE/ BRINGS MORE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
NOTABLE...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO RISE TO 6000 TO 7500 FT MSL.
EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN /EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN/
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JDS
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....MT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 011602
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
902 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS CAME IN DURING THE NIGHT AND HALTED
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA.
LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING WERE 25 TO 30 AT MOST SITES.  SOME
EASTERN BASINS GOT QUITE COLD...FAIRFIELD WAS 5 BELOW ZERO.
CLOUDS ALSO LIMITED FOG FORMATION BUT THERE WERE PATCHES IN ERN
ZONES.  PACIFIC TROUGH HAS COME ONSHORE IN OREGON AND LOOKS MOIST
ENOUGH FOR LIGHT PCPN IN OUR CWA LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
HIGHER MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER THAN MAV POPS WHICH CAN HARDLY SEE
ANY PCPN...ALTHOUGH THE RAW GFS DOES OUTPUT SOME IN OUR CWA TONIGHT.
PCPN-TYPE TONIGHT SHOULD BE RAIN BELOW 4000 FEET MSL...MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET...AND SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET.
AFTER A BREAK MONDAY MORNING A STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING
MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW LEVEL HOLDING
STEADY.  ENOUGH QPF IN NRN MOUNTAINS FOR A FOOT OF NEW SNOW THROUGH
TUESDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET MSL. VALLEYS WILL HAVE GENERALLY .10 INCH OR
LESS QPF LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT UP TO .30 INCH IN NRN-MOST
VALLEYS. QPF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE HEAVIER... GENERALLY
.25 TO .50 INCH IN IDAHO NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN AND .05 TO .25
INCH IN THE SNAKE BASIN AND SOUTH.  SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN OREGON...
GREATEST IN BAKER COUNTY.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ON ALL THIS
...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW AFTER 20Z. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY 4500-5500 FT MSL NEAR
THE NEVADA BORDER...LOWERING TO 3000-4000 FT MSL NEAR KBKE AND KMYL.
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. SE TO SW SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BY MONDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT
VALLEY RAIN /SOME AREAS RAIN-SHADOWED/ AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING NORTHERN ZONES A THREAT OF RAIN OR SNOW TODAY
AND ANOTHER BIT STRONGER SYSTEM CROSSES SE OREGON THIS EVENING AND
WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES SW IDAHO TONIGHT...DUE TO THE LONG WAVE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT MOUNTAINS
WILL COOL OFF FROM RECENT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SNOW LEVELS
GENERALLY 3500 TO 4500 FEET NORTH AND 5500-6500 FEET SOUTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WET CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUMPS
MOISTURE INLAND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 4500 FT TO 6500 FT
MSL FOR PERIODS OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEYS.
DRIER OVERALL ON THURSDAY...AS A PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND OVER
OREGON/IDAHO. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS QUICKLY EASTWARD AND MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW /ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE/ BRINGS MORE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
NOTABLE...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO RISE TO 6000 TO 7500 FT MSL.
EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN /EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN/
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JDS
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....MT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 011602
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
902 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS CAME IN DURING THE NIGHT AND HALTED
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA.
LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING WERE 25 TO 30 AT MOST SITES.  SOME
EASTERN BASINS GOT QUITE COLD...FAIRFIELD WAS 5 BELOW ZERO.
CLOUDS ALSO LIMITED FOG FORMATION BUT THERE WERE PATCHES IN ERN
ZONES.  PACIFIC TROUGH HAS COME ONSHORE IN OREGON AND LOOKS MOIST
ENOUGH FOR LIGHT PCPN IN OUR CWA LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
HIGHER MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER THAN MAV POPS WHICH CAN HARDLY SEE
ANY PCPN...ALTHOUGH THE RAW GFS DOES OUTPUT SOME IN OUR CWA TONIGHT.
PCPN-TYPE TONIGHT SHOULD BE RAIN BELOW 4000 FEET MSL...MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET...AND SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET.
AFTER A BREAK MONDAY MORNING A STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING
MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW LEVEL HOLDING
STEADY.  ENOUGH QPF IN NRN MOUNTAINS FOR A FOOT OF NEW SNOW THROUGH
TUESDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET MSL. VALLEYS WILL HAVE GENERALLY .10 INCH OR
LESS QPF LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT UP TO .30 INCH IN NRN-MOST
VALLEYS. QPF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE HEAVIER... GENERALLY
.25 TO .50 INCH IN IDAHO NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN AND .05 TO .25
INCH IN THE SNAKE BASIN AND SOUTH.  SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN OREGON...
GREATEST IN BAKER COUNTY.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ON ALL THIS
...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW AFTER 20Z. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY 4500-5500 FT MSL NEAR
THE NEVADA BORDER...LOWERING TO 3000-4000 FT MSL NEAR KBKE AND KMYL.
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. SE TO SW SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BY MONDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT
VALLEY RAIN /SOME AREAS RAIN-SHADOWED/ AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING NORTHERN ZONES A THREAT OF RAIN OR SNOW TODAY
AND ANOTHER BIT STRONGER SYSTEM CROSSES SE OREGON THIS EVENING AND
WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES SW IDAHO TONIGHT...DUE TO THE LONG WAVE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT MOUNTAINS
WILL COOL OFF FROM RECENT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SNOW LEVELS
GENERALLY 3500 TO 4500 FEET NORTH AND 5500-6500 FEET SOUTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WET CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUMPS
MOISTURE INLAND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 4500 FT TO 6500 FT
MSL FOR PERIODS OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEYS.
DRIER OVERALL ON THURSDAY...AS A PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND OVER
OREGON/IDAHO. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS QUICKLY EASTWARD AND MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW /ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE/ BRINGS MORE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
NOTABLE...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO RISE TO 6000 TO 7500 FT MSL.
EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN /EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN/
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JDS
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....MT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 011602
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
902 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS CAME IN DURING THE NIGHT AND HALTED
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA.
LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING WERE 25 TO 30 AT MOST SITES.  SOME
EASTERN BASINS GOT QUITE COLD...FAIRFIELD WAS 5 BELOW ZERO.
CLOUDS ALSO LIMITED FOG FORMATION BUT THERE WERE PATCHES IN ERN
ZONES.  PACIFIC TROUGH HAS COME ONSHORE IN OREGON AND LOOKS MOIST
ENOUGH FOR LIGHT PCPN IN OUR CWA LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
HIGHER MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER THAN MAV POPS WHICH CAN HARDLY SEE
ANY PCPN...ALTHOUGH THE RAW GFS DOES OUTPUT SOME IN OUR CWA TONIGHT.
PCPN-TYPE TONIGHT SHOULD BE RAIN BELOW 4000 FEET MSL...MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET...AND SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET.
AFTER A BREAK MONDAY MORNING A STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING
MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW LEVEL HOLDING
STEADY.  ENOUGH QPF IN NRN MOUNTAINS FOR A FOOT OF NEW SNOW THROUGH
TUESDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET MSL. VALLEYS WILL HAVE GENERALLY .10 INCH OR
LESS QPF LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT UP TO .30 INCH IN NRN-MOST
VALLEYS. QPF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE HEAVIER... GENERALLY
.25 TO .50 INCH IN IDAHO NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN AND .05 TO .25
INCH IN THE SNAKE BASIN AND SOUTH.  SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN OREGON...
GREATEST IN BAKER COUNTY.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ON ALL THIS
...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW AFTER 20Z. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY 4500-5500 FT MSL NEAR
THE NEVADA BORDER...LOWERING TO 3000-4000 FT MSL NEAR KBKE AND KMYL.
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. SE TO SW SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BY MONDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT
VALLEY RAIN /SOME AREAS RAIN-SHADOWED/ AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING NORTHERN ZONES A THREAT OF RAIN OR SNOW TODAY
AND ANOTHER BIT STRONGER SYSTEM CROSSES SE OREGON THIS EVENING AND
WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES SW IDAHO TONIGHT...DUE TO THE LONG WAVE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT MOUNTAINS
WILL COOL OFF FROM RECENT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SNOW LEVELS
GENERALLY 3500 TO 4500 FEET NORTH AND 5500-6500 FEET SOUTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WET CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUMPS
MOISTURE INLAND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 4500 FT TO 6500 FT
MSL FOR PERIODS OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEYS.
DRIER OVERALL ON THURSDAY...AS A PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND OVER
OREGON/IDAHO. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS QUICKLY EASTWARD AND MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW /ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE/ BRINGS MORE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
NOTABLE...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO RISE TO 6000 TO 7500 FT MSL.
EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN /EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN/
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JDS
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....MT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 011602
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
902 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS CAME IN DURING THE NIGHT AND HALTED
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA.
LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING WERE 25 TO 30 AT MOST SITES.  SOME
EASTERN BASINS GOT QUITE COLD...FAIRFIELD WAS 5 BELOW ZERO.
CLOUDS ALSO LIMITED FOG FORMATION BUT THERE WERE PATCHES IN ERN
ZONES.  PACIFIC TROUGH HAS COME ONSHORE IN OREGON AND LOOKS MOIST
ENOUGH FOR LIGHT PCPN IN OUR CWA LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
HIGHER MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER THAN MAV POPS WHICH CAN HARDLY SEE
ANY PCPN...ALTHOUGH THE RAW GFS DOES OUTPUT SOME IN OUR CWA TONIGHT.
PCPN-TYPE TONIGHT SHOULD BE RAIN BELOW 4000 FEET MSL...MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET...AND SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET.
AFTER A BREAK MONDAY MORNING A STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING
MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW LEVEL HOLDING
STEADY.  ENOUGH QPF IN NRN MOUNTAINS FOR A FOOT OF NEW SNOW THROUGH
TUESDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET MSL. VALLEYS WILL HAVE GENERALLY .10 INCH OR
LESS QPF LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT UP TO .30 INCH IN NRN-MOST
VALLEYS. QPF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE HEAVIER... GENERALLY
.25 TO .50 INCH IN IDAHO NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN AND .05 TO .25
INCH IN THE SNAKE BASIN AND SOUTH.  SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN OREGON...
GREATEST IN BAKER COUNTY.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ON ALL THIS
...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW AFTER 20Z. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY 4500-5500 FT MSL NEAR
THE NEVADA BORDER...LOWERING TO 3000-4000 FT MSL NEAR KBKE AND KMYL.
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. SE TO SW SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BY MONDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT
VALLEY RAIN /SOME AREAS RAIN-SHADOWED/ AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING NORTHERN ZONES A THREAT OF RAIN OR SNOW TODAY
AND ANOTHER BIT STRONGER SYSTEM CROSSES SE OREGON THIS EVENING AND
WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES SW IDAHO TONIGHT...DUE TO THE LONG WAVE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT MOUNTAINS
WILL COOL OFF FROM RECENT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SNOW LEVELS
GENERALLY 3500 TO 4500 FEET NORTH AND 5500-6500 FEET SOUTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WET CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUMPS
MOISTURE INLAND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 4500 FT TO 6500 FT
MSL FOR PERIODS OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEYS.
DRIER OVERALL ON THURSDAY...AS A PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND OVER
OREGON/IDAHO. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS QUICKLY EASTWARD AND MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW /ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE/ BRINGS MORE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
NOTABLE...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO RISE TO 6000 TO 7500 FT MSL.
EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN /EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN/
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JDS
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....MT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 011602
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
902 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS CAME IN DURING THE NIGHT AND HALTED
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA.
LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING WERE 25 TO 30 AT MOST SITES.  SOME
EASTERN BASINS GOT QUITE COLD...FAIRFIELD WAS 5 BELOW ZERO.
CLOUDS ALSO LIMITED FOG FORMATION BUT THERE WERE PATCHES IN ERN
ZONES.  PACIFIC TROUGH HAS COME ONSHORE IN OREGON AND LOOKS MOIST
ENOUGH FOR LIGHT PCPN IN OUR CWA LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
HIGHER MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER THAN MAV POPS WHICH CAN HARDLY SEE
ANY PCPN...ALTHOUGH THE RAW GFS DOES OUTPUT SOME IN OUR CWA TONIGHT.
PCPN-TYPE TONIGHT SHOULD BE RAIN BELOW 4000 FEET MSL...MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET...AND SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET.
AFTER A BREAK MONDAY MORNING A STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING
MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW LEVEL HOLDING
STEADY.  ENOUGH QPF IN NRN MOUNTAINS FOR A FOOT OF NEW SNOW THROUGH
TUESDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET MSL. VALLEYS WILL HAVE GENERALLY .10 INCH OR
LESS QPF LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT UP TO .30 INCH IN NRN-MOST
VALLEYS. QPF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE HEAVIER... GENERALLY
.25 TO .50 INCH IN IDAHO NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN AND .05 TO .25
INCH IN THE SNAKE BASIN AND SOUTH.  SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN OREGON...
GREATEST IN BAKER COUNTY.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ON ALL THIS
...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW AFTER 20Z. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY 4500-5500 FT MSL NEAR
THE NEVADA BORDER...LOWERING TO 3000-4000 FT MSL NEAR KBKE AND KMYL.
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. SE TO SW SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BY MONDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT
VALLEY RAIN /SOME AREAS RAIN-SHADOWED/ AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING NORTHERN ZONES A THREAT OF RAIN OR SNOW TODAY
AND ANOTHER BIT STRONGER SYSTEM CROSSES SE OREGON THIS EVENING AND
WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES SW IDAHO TONIGHT...DUE TO THE LONG WAVE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT MOUNTAINS
WILL COOL OFF FROM RECENT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SNOW LEVELS
GENERALLY 3500 TO 4500 FEET NORTH AND 5500-6500 FEET SOUTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WET CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUMPS
MOISTURE INLAND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 4500 FT TO 6500 FT
MSL FOR PERIODS OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEYS.
DRIER OVERALL ON THURSDAY...AS A PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND OVER
OREGON/IDAHO. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS QUICKLY EASTWARD AND MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW /ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE/ BRINGS MORE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
NOTABLE...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO RISE TO 6000 TO 7500 FT MSL.
EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN /EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN/
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JDS
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....MT



000
FXUS66 KPDT 011541
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
741 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING A RELATIVELY HIGH POP BUT LOW QPF EVENT
TO OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN IS ALREADY SPREADING EAST OF THE
CASCADES AS ANTICIPATED. FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT IN CENTRAL
OREGON SO PLAN ON EITHER CANCELING OR LETTING THE FREEZING FOG
ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS MORNING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  41  36  49  38 /  50  40  60  30
ALW  42  39  49  40 /  50  40  60  30
PSC  43  34  48  38 /  40  30  60  20
YKM  41  32  45  33 /  30  20  60  20
HRI  43  36  49  40 /  40  30  60  20
ELN  40  31  43  33 /  40  20  60  20
RDM  48  36  53  35 /  40  30  70  20
LGD  42  34  46  35 /  40  50  70  40
GCD  43  33  49  33 /  40  40  60  30
DLS  44  38  49  40 /  50  30  70  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ511.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78





000
FXUS66 KPDT 011541
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
741 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING A RELATIVELY HIGH POP BUT LOW QPF EVENT
TO OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN IS ALREADY SPREADING EAST OF THE
CASCADES AS ANTICIPATED. FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT IN CENTRAL
OREGON SO PLAN ON EITHER CANCELING OR LETTING THE FREEZING FOG
ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS MORNING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  41  36  49  38 /  50  40  60  30
ALW  42  39  49  40 /  50  40  60  30
PSC  43  34  48  38 /  40  30  60  20
YKM  41  32  45  33 /  30  20  60  20
HRI  43  36  49  40 /  40  30  60  20
ELN  40  31  43  33 /  40  20  60  20
RDM  48  36  53  35 /  40  30  70  20
LGD  42  34  46  35 /  40  50  70  40
GCD  43  33  49  33 /  40  40  60  30
DLS  44  38  49  40 /  50  30  70  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ511.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78





000
FXUS66 KPDT 011541
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
741 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING A RELATIVELY HIGH POP BUT LOW QPF EVENT
TO OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN IS ALREADY SPREADING EAST OF THE
CASCADES AS ANTICIPATED. FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT IN CENTRAL
OREGON SO PLAN ON EITHER CANCELING OR LETTING THE FREEZING FOG
ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS MORNING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  41  36  49  38 /  50  40  60  30
ALW  42  39  49  40 /  50  40  60  30
PSC  43  34  48  38 /  40  30  60  20
YKM  41  32  45  33 /  30  20  60  20
HRI  43  36  49  40 /  40  30  60  20
ELN  40  31  43  33 /  40  20  60  20
RDM  48  36  53  35 /  40  30  70  20
LGD  42  34  46  35 /  40  50  70  40
GCD  43  33  49  33 /  40  40  60  30
DLS  44  38  49  40 /  50  30  70  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ511.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78





000
FXUS66 KPDT 011541
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
741 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING A RELATIVELY HIGH POP BUT LOW QPF EVENT
TO OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN IS ALREADY SPREADING EAST OF THE
CASCADES AS ANTICIPATED. FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT IN CENTRAL
OREGON SO PLAN ON EITHER CANCELING OR LETTING THE FREEZING FOG
ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS MORNING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  41  36  49  38 /  50  40  60  30
ALW  42  39  49  40 /  50  40  60  30
PSC  43  34  48  38 /  40  30  60  20
YKM  41  32  45  33 /  30  20  60  20
HRI  43  36  49  40 /  40  30  60  20
ELN  40  31  43  33 /  40  20  60  20
RDM  48  36  53  35 /  40  30  70  20
LGD  42  34  46  35 /  40  50  70  40
GCD  43  33  49  33 /  40  40  60  30
DLS  44  38  49  40 /  50  30  70  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ511.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78





000
FXUS66 KPDT 011541
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
741 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING A RELATIVELY HIGH POP BUT LOW QPF EVENT
TO OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN IS ALREADY SPREADING EAST OF THE
CASCADES AS ANTICIPATED. FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT IN CENTRAL
OREGON SO PLAN ON EITHER CANCELING OR LETTING THE FREEZING FOG
ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS MORNING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  41  36  49  38 /  50  40  60  30
ALW  42  39  49  40 /  50  40  60  30
PSC  43  34  48  38 /  40  30  60  20
YKM  41  32  45  33 /  30  20  60  20
HRI  43  36  49  40 /  40  30  60  20
ELN  40  31  43  33 /  40  20  60  20
RDM  48  36  53  35 /  40  30  70  20
LGD  42  34  46  35 /  40  50  70  40
GCD  43  33  49  33 /  40  40  60  30
DLS  44  38  49  40 /  50  30  70  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ511.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78





000
FXUS66 KPDT 011541
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
741 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING A RELATIVELY HIGH POP BUT LOW QPF EVENT
TO OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN IS ALREADY SPREADING EAST OF THE
CASCADES AS ANTICIPATED. FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT IN CENTRAL
OREGON SO PLAN ON EITHER CANCELING OR LETTING THE FREEZING FOG
ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS MORNING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  41  36  49  38 /  50  40  60  30
ALW  42  39  49  40 /  50  40  60  30
PSC  43  34  48  38 /  40  30  60  20
YKM  41  32  45  33 /  30  20  60  20
HRI  43  36  49  40 /  40  30  60  20
ELN  40  31  43  33 /  40  20  60  20
RDM  48  36  53  35 /  40  30  70  20
LGD  42  34  46  35 /  40  50  70  40
GCD  43  33  49  33 /  40  40  60  30
DLS  44  38  49  40 /  50  30  70  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ511.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78






000
FXUS66 KPQR 011322 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
515 AM PST SUN FEB  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY AS A
WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY...LIKELY SHIFTING TO WEAK
ONSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE COAST THIS MORNING THEN REACH THE CASCADES BY THE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. A MUCH WETTER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. COMPUTER MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW HIGH VARIABILITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS A BRIEF DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO A MUCH WETTER PATTERN LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...515 AM UPDATE...KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR AND
INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A BAND OF PRECIP EXTENDING FROM
ABOUT CAPE FOULWEATHER NORTHEAST INTO THE S WA CASCADES. DESPITE THE
OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...-6.0 MB KTTD-KDLS AT 13Z...MEASURABLE
PRECIP HAS OCCURRED IN MANY AREAS ALONG AND THE AFOREMENTIONED PRECIP
BAND. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING ONTO THE COAST AS OF 1315Z.


REST OF SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...THE MAIN STORY EARLY THIS
MORNING IS THE LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. AT 0930Z THE KTTD-KDLS
GRADIENT WAS AT -6.4 MB...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE 03-HR FORECAST
FROM THE 06Z NAM RUN. THIS GRADIENT IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40-50
MPH AT THE WEST END OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE...BUT UP TO 65 MPH AT CROWN
POINT. THESE GUSTS ARE DOWN ABOUT 10 MPH FROM LATE SAT EVENING. THE
COOL POOL APPEARS TO BE A BIT DEEPER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...AS
EVIDENCED BY THE 26F DEGREE READING AT A RAWS SITE AT 3450 FT MSL IN
THE S WA CASCADES. THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS BEING SUPPLEMENTED BY AN
APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM...ALLOWING LOWERING PRESSURE OFFSHORE
FOR INCREASING GRADIENTS. THE 06Z NAM ELIMINATES THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENT BY 21Z TODAY...BUT IT TENDS TO WEAKEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW TOO
SOON. WOULD EXPECT THE EAST WIND TO DIE OFF MORE TOWARD 00Z OR EVEN
EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED FOG FORMATION. KEUG HAD
DROPPED TO ONE-QUARTER MILE EARLIER BUT HAS COME UP TO JUST OVER 2
MILES VISIBILITY SHORTLY BEFORE 10Z. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE SUNDAY
FORECAST. PRECIP WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT...MAYBE ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH TOTAL FOR THE COAST
RANGE...WILLAPA HILLS AND CASCADES. PRECIP LIKELY TO BEGIN AS SNOW IN
EASTERN SKAMANIA COUNTY OF SW WA AND THE EAST SIDE OF MT. HOOD DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY DEEP COOL POOL. THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO TOTALLY MIX OUT THE COLDER AIR IN THOSE AREAS. ANY PRECIP IN THE
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STAY AS LIQUID.

MODELS ALSO IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM.
MAIN MODEL DISCREPANCIES LIE IN THE TIMING AND FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST
QPF. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A BIT FASTER AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST QPF
OVER SWRN OREGON MON MORNING. GFS HAS THE QPF BULLS-EYE A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH WHILE THE NAM IS JUST A TOUCH MORE N THAN THE GFS. NAM
ALSO ALSO DEVELOPS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE LOW NEAR BUOY 029 18Z
MON WHILE THE GFS HAS IT A BIT WEAKER AND FURTHER N. BREEZY TO WINDY
SOUTH WIND WOULD DEVELOP IF THE NAM VERIFIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. NAM ALSO SHOWS A SHARPER AND MORE DYNAMIC COLD FRONT. THIS
WOULD ALSO BREAK THROUGH VALLEY INVERSIONS AND WARM UP THE LOWLANDS
CONSIDERABLY...JUST BEFORE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ADDITION...00Z
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY...WITH
CAPE OF 400-800 J/KG JUST ABOVE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. THERE IS THE
SLIM POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DECENT DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITHIN THE UNSTABLE LAYER. HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

TOTAL QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 1.5
INCHES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND 0.25 TO 0.75 FOR THE LOWLANDS. MODELS
THEN START TO DIVERGE MON NIGHT AND BEYOND. THE ECMWF BRINGS A WARM
FRONT INTO SWRN OREGON TUE MORNING....AS DOES THE NAM BUT IT HAS IT A
LITTLE MORE TO THE S...CLOSER TO THE CALIFORNIA BORDER. THE GFS IS
MORE IN BETWEEN THE TWO. THIS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS N
TUE AFTERNOON...BUT STAYS S OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BY 00Z WED.
THUS...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MUCH LOWER IN THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON
CASCADES TUE...COMPARED TO AREAS S OF MT. JEFFERSON. WEISHAAR

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SOLUTIONS VARY IN
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE GFS INDICATES AN UPPER RIDGE RETURNING TO
THE PACIFIC NW WED WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS A REMNANT WARM-FRONTAL
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. THERE IS A THE GEM IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE GFS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTEMENTS
TO THE WED AND WED NIGHT PERIODS...MAINLY TO TRIM POPS A BIT. SHOULD
THE GFS PAN OUT...FURTHER REDUCTION WOULD BE NECESSARY AND WOULD ALSO
NEED TO CONSIDER THE INCLUSION OF NIGHT NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. MODELS ARE IN SURPRISING AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF MUCH WETTER WEATHER
WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS A SWATH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF
ATMOSPHERIC WAVES SETS UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
WILL LIKELY BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAS OF
PRIMARY QPF FOCUS REMAIN RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...THE COAST AS WELL AS NORTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY SITES REMAINS VFR AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THESE AREAS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND KSLE
OCCASIONALLY REDUCING CIGS/VSBYS AT THIS SITE. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER OVER NIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z ALONG
THE COAST AND CLOSER TO 16Z AT SITES IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
FURTHER SOUTH...LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KEUG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SHOWERS START TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AROUND 16Z. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTY EAST WINDS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
CIGS FALLING FROM 100 TO 050 AROUND 16Z SUN ALONG WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING. MAY SEE IFR CIGS WORK SOUTH ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR
FROM THE KKLS AREA TOWARD KPDX BUT EASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM THE GORGE
SHOULD KEEP IT AS AN IFR STRATUS DECK IF IT ARRIVES AT ALL. RAIN
PICKS UP AROUND 16Z AND CIGS FALL TO 025. EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND A TRANSITION TO SHOWERS NEAR 23Z. -MCCOY/JBONK

&&

.MARINE...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING OUR WATERS THIS
MORNING AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW THAT GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS WILL BE
PREVALENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...THOUGH A FEW
GUSTS OVER 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT NEARS
SHORE. SEAS START TO INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT TODAY. A SECOND...STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO INCREASE SEAS TO 10
TO 12 FT. WINDS AND SEAS START TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY...BRINGING
SEAS BACK DOWN TO AROUND 7 TO 8 FT BY MIDWEEK AS SHORT-LIVED HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...WHICH
COULD GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD GET IRONED OUT AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 011139
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
339 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY REPRESENTS A TRANSITION DAY TOWARDS AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN AFTER WEEKS OF GENERALLY STAGNANT WEATHER. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA...FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. THIS FRONT WILL MIX UP THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO END THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORIES BY
THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND...MORE POTENT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE CURRY COUNTY COAST...A QUARTER INCH
TO MOST WEST SIDE VALLEYS...AND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE
EAST SIDE. THESE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE VIRTUALLY ALL RAIN...WITH SNOW LEVELS AT 7500
FEET AND HIGHER.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL MONDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND
THEN GET RE-ENERGIZED AS ANOTHER SHOT OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING...WAVING NORTH AND BRINGING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE CASCADES.
WE HAVE FAVORED THE HEAVIER RAIN SOLUTIONS OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR
THIS PERIOD...THOUGH HAVE TEMPERED THEM A LITTLE BY BLENDING SOME
OF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES COULD GET UNSEASONABLY WARM IN VALLEYS IF FOG DOES
NOT DEVELOP...AND DENSE FOG LOOKS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT STRONG
INVERSIONS REALLY WON`T HAVE TIME TO SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING A HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WIND EVENT. GEFS-BASED TOOLS THAT HELP GAUGE HOW SIGNIFICANT
A RAIN EVENT WILL BE ARE SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A ONCE-IN-TEN-
YEAR TYPE EVENT FOR THE COAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL. RIVERS ARE
CURRENTLY WELL BELOW NORMAL IN TERMS OF STREAMFLOW...SO ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR FLOODING...BUT DO BELIEVE THERE IS STILL
SOME POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL RIVER OR STREAM FLOODING IF THE VERY WET
GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES. CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE MARINE IMPACTS WITH
GALES AND POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST...HIGH
TERRAIN...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST SIDE DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME.


&&

.AVIATION...WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER
DEWPOINTS VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO COUPLED WITH INCREASING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MEAN THAT ONLY MVFR VIS WITH LOCAL IFR CIG/VIS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS MORNING, EXCEPT IN THE
ILLINOIS VALLEY AND NEAR GRANTS PASS, WHERE IFR AND LOCAL LIFR
COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING. AN INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME WEST SIDE MVFR THROUGH THE DAY,
MAINLY COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS CASCADES WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SVEN


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 330 AM PST SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2015... LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND SUNRISE TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL BUILD AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MID-WEEK
WILL BUILD TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WITH GALES AND EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SVEN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

NSK/NSK/SBN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 011139
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
339 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY REPRESENTS A TRANSITION DAY TOWARDS AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN AFTER WEEKS OF GENERALLY STAGNANT WEATHER. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA...FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. THIS FRONT WILL MIX UP THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO END THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORIES BY
THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND...MORE POTENT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE CURRY COUNTY COAST...A QUARTER INCH
TO MOST WEST SIDE VALLEYS...AND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE
EAST SIDE. THESE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE VIRTUALLY ALL RAIN...WITH SNOW LEVELS AT 7500
FEET AND HIGHER.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL MONDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND
THEN GET RE-ENERGIZED AS ANOTHER SHOT OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING...WAVING NORTH AND BRINGING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE CASCADES.
WE HAVE FAVORED THE HEAVIER RAIN SOLUTIONS OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR
THIS PERIOD...THOUGH HAVE TEMPERED THEM A LITTLE BY BLENDING SOME
OF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES COULD GET UNSEASONABLY WARM IN VALLEYS IF FOG DOES
NOT DEVELOP...AND DENSE FOG LOOKS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT STRONG
INVERSIONS REALLY WON`T HAVE TIME TO SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING A HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WIND EVENT. GEFS-BASED TOOLS THAT HELP GAUGE HOW SIGNIFICANT
A RAIN EVENT WILL BE ARE SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A ONCE-IN-TEN-
YEAR TYPE EVENT FOR THE COAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL. RIVERS ARE
CURRENTLY WELL BELOW NORMAL IN TERMS OF STREAMFLOW...SO ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR FLOODING...BUT DO BELIEVE THERE IS STILL
SOME POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL RIVER OR STREAM FLOODING IF THE VERY WET
GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES. CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE MARINE IMPACTS WITH
GALES AND POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST...HIGH
TERRAIN...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST SIDE DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME.


&&

.AVIATION...WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER
DEWPOINTS VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO COUPLED WITH INCREASING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MEAN THAT ONLY MVFR VIS WITH LOCAL IFR CIG/VIS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS MORNING, EXCEPT IN THE
ILLINOIS VALLEY AND NEAR GRANTS PASS, WHERE IFR AND LOCAL LIFR
COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING. AN INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME WEST SIDE MVFR THROUGH THE DAY,
MAINLY COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS CASCADES WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SVEN


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 330 AM PST SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2015... LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND SUNRISE TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL BUILD AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MID-WEEK
WILL BUILD TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WITH GALES AND EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SVEN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

NSK/NSK/SBN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 011139
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
339 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY REPRESENTS A TRANSITION DAY TOWARDS AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN AFTER WEEKS OF GENERALLY STAGNANT WEATHER. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA...FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. THIS FRONT WILL MIX UP THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO END THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORIES BY
THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND...MORE POTENT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE CURRY COUNTY COAST...A QUARTER INCH
TO MOST WEST SIDE VALLEYS...AND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE
EAST SIDE. THESE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE VIRTUALLY ALL RAIN...WITH SNOW LEVELS AT 7500
FEET AND HIGHER.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL MONDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND
THEN GET RE-ENERGIZED AS ANOTHER SHOT OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING...WAVING NORTH AND BRINGING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE CASCADES.
WE HAVE FAVORED THE HEAVIER RAIN SOLUTIONS OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR
THIS PERIOD...THOUGH HAVE TEMPERED THEM A LITTLE BY BLENDING SOME
OF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES COULD GET UNSEASONABLY WARM IN VALLEYS IF FOG DOES
NOT DEVELOP...AND DENSE FOG LOOKS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT STRONG
INVERSIONS REALLY WON`T HAVE TIME TO SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING A HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WIND EVENT. GEFS-BASED TOOLS THAT HELP GAUGE HOW SIGNIFICANT
A RAIN EVENT WILL BE ARE SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A ONCE-IN-TEN-
YEAR TYPE EVENT FOR THE COAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL. RIVERS ARE
CURRENTLY WELL BELOW NORMAL IN TERMS OF STREAMFLOW...SO ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR FLOODING...BUT DO BELIEVE THERE IS STILL
SOME POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL RIVER OR STREAM FLOODING IF THE VERY WET
GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES. CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE MARINE IMPACTS WITH
GALES AND POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST...HIGH
TERRAIN...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST SIDE DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME.


&&

.AVIATION...WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER
DEWPOINTS VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO COUPLED WITH INCREASING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MEAN THAT ONLY MVFR VIS WITH LOCAL IFR CIG/VIS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS MORNING, EXCEPT IN THE
ILLINOIS VALLEY AND NEAR GRANTS PASS, WHERE IFR AND LOCAL LIFR
COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING. AN INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME WEST SIDE MVFR THROUGH THE DAY,
MAINLY COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS CASCADES WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SVEN


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 330 AM PST SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2015... LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND SUNRISE TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL BUILD AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MID-WEEK
WILL BUILD TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WITH GALES AND EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SVEN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

NSK/NSK/SBN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 011139
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
339 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY REPRESENTS A TRANSITION DAY TOWARDS AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN AFTER WEEKS OF GENERALLY STAGNANT WEATHER. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA...FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. THIS FRONT WILL MIX UP THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO END THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORIES BY
THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND...MORE POTENT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE CURRY COUNTY COAST...A QUARTER INCH
TO MOST WEST SIDE VALLEYS...AND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE
EAST SIDE. THESE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE VIRTUALLY ALL RAIN...WITH SNOW LEVELS AT 7500
FEET AND HIGHER.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL MONDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND
THEN GET RE-ENERGIZED AS ANOTHER SHOT OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING...WAVING NORTH AND BRINGING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE CASCADES.
WE HAVE FAVORED THE HEAVIER RAIN SOLUTIONS OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR
THIS PERIOD...THOUGH HAVE TEMPERED THEM A LITTLE BY BLENDING SOME
OF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES COULD GET UNSEASONABLY WARM IN VALLEYS IF FOG DOES
NOT DEVELOP...AND DENSE FOG LOOKS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT STRONG
INVERSIONS REALLY WON`T HAVE TIME TO SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING A HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WIND EVENT. GEFS-BASED TOOLS THAT HELP GAUGE HOW SIGNIFICANT
A RAIN EVENT WILL BE ARE SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A ONCE-IN-TEN-
YEAR TYPE EVENT FOR THE COAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL. RIVERS ARE
CURRENTLY WELL BELOW NORMAL IN TERMS OF STREAMFLOW...SO ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR FLOODING...BUT DO BELIEVE THERE IS STILL
SOME POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL RIVER OR STREAM FLOODING IF THE VERY WET
GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES. CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE MARINE IMPACTS WITH
GALES AND POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST...HIGH
TERRAIN...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST SIDE DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME.


&&

.AVIATION...WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER
DEWPOINTS VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO COUPLED WITH INCREASING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MEAN THAT ONLY MVFR VIS WITH LOCAL IFR CIG/VIS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS MORNING, EXCEPT IN THE
ILLINOIS VALLEY AND NEAR GRANTS PASS, WHERE IFR AND LOCAL LIFR
COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING. AN INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME WEST SIDE MVFR THROUGH THE DAY,
MAINLY COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS CASCADES WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SVEN


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 330 AM PST SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2015... LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND SUNRISE TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL BUILD AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MID-WEEK
WILL BUILD TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WITH GALES AND EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SVEN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

NSK/NSK/SBN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 011139 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
339 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS AND ADDED SOME WIND
HIGHLIGHTS FOR NEXT FEW SYSTEMS.

.DISCUSSION...TODAY REPRESENTS A TRANSITION DAY TOWARDS AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN AFTER WEEKS OF GENERALLY STAGNANT WEATHER. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA...FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. THIS FRONT WILL MIX UP THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO END THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORIES BY
THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND...MORE POTENT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE CURRY COUNTY COAST...A QUARTER INCH
TO MOST WEST SIDE VALLEYS...AND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE
EAST SIDE. THESE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE VIRTUALLY ALL RAIN...WITH SNOW LEVELS AT 7500
FEET AND HIGHER. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
700MB FLOW REACHING 50KT FROM THE WEST ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
MODELS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL MONDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND
THEN GET RE-ENERGIZED AS ANOTHER SHOT OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING...WAVING NORTH AND BRINGING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE CASCADES.
WE HAVE FAVORED THE HEAVIER RAIN SOLUTIONS OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR
THIS PERIOD...THOUGH HAVE TEMPERED THEM A LITTLE BY BLENDING SOME
OF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. WINDS WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH 700MB WINDS PEAKING AT 55KT PER THE GFS...SO
EAST SIDE WINDS WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE MET...OR MORE. RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES COULD GET UNSEASONABLY WARM IN VALLEYS IF FOG DOES
NOT DEVELOP...AND DENSE FOG LOOKS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT STRONG
INVERSIONS REALLY WON`T HAVE TIME TO SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING A HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WIND EVENT. GEFS-BASED TOOLS THAT HELP GAUGE HOW SIGNIFICANT
A RAIN EVENT WILL BE ARE SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A ONCE-IN-TEN-
YEAR TYPE EVENT FOR THE COAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL. RIVERS ARE
CURRENTLY WELL BELOW NORMAL IN TERMS OF STREAMFLOW...SO ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR FLOODING...BUT DO BELIEVE THERE IS STILL
SOME POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL RIVER OR STREAM FLOODING IF THE VERY WET
GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES. CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE MARINE IMPACTS WITH
GALES AND POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST...HIGH
TERRAIN...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST SIDE DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 01/12Z TAF CYCLE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
PATCHY FOG FOR INLAND WEST SIDE VALLEYS THROUGH 16Z. THEN AN
INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME WEST SIDE
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY, MAINLY COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. ALSO
EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS CASCADES WEST TODAY. THEN THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 355 AM PST SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2015...LIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS  THE WATERS ON MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO
BRING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS, REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS,
AND STEEP SEAS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE TILL MIDWEEK. THEN A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTH GALES INTO
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ENP MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FT DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO WIND SEAS AND FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

NSK/NSK/SBN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 011139 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
339 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS AND ADDED SOME WIND
HIGHLIGHTS FOR NEXT FEW SYSTEMS.

.DISCUSSION...TODAY REPRESENTS A TRANSITION DAY TOWARDS AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN AFTER WEEKS OF GENERALLY STAGNANT WEATHER. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA...FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. THIS FRONT WILL MIX UP THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO END THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORIES BY
THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND...MORE POTENT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE CURRY COUNTY COAST...A QUARTER INCH
TO MOST WEST SIDE VALLEYS...AND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE
EAST SIDE. THESE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE VIRTUALLY ALL RAIN...WITH SNOW LEVELS AT 7500
FEET AND HIGHER. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
700MB FLOW REACHING 50KT FROM THE WEST ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
MODELS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL MONDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND
THEN GET RE-ENERGIZED AS ANOTHER SHOT OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING...WAVING NORTH AND BRINGING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE CASCADES.
WE HAVE FAVORED THE HEAVIER RAIN SOLUTIONS OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR
THIS PERIOD...THOUGH HAVE TEMPERED THEM A LITTLE BY BLENDING SOME
OF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. WINDS WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH 700MB WINDS PEAKING AT 55KT PER THE GFS...SO
EAST SIDE WINDS WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE MET...OR MORE. RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES COULD GET UNSEASONABLY WARM IN VALLEYS IF FOG DOES
NOT DEVELOP...AND DENSE FOG LOOKS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT STRONG
INVERSIONS REALLY WON`T HAVE TIME TO SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING A HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WIND EVENT. GEFS-BASED TOOLS THAT HELP GAUGE HOW SIGNIFICANT
A RAIN EVENT WILL BE ARE SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A ONCE-IN-TEN-
YEAR TYPE EVENT FOR THE COAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL. RIVERS ARE
CURRENTLY WELL BELOW NORMAL IN TERMS OF STREAMFLOW...SO ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR FLOODING...BUT DO BELIEVE THERE IS STILL
SOME POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL RIVER OR STREAM FLOODING IF THE VERY WET
GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES. CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE MARINE IMPACTS WITH
GALES AND POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST...HIGH
TERRAIN...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST SIDE DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 01/12Z TAF CYCLE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
PATCHY FOG FOR INLAND WEST SIDE VALLEYS THROUGH 16Z. THEN AN
INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME WEST SIDE
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY, MAINLY COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. ALSO
EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS CASCADES WEST TODAY. THEN THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 355 AM PST SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2015...LIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS  THE WATERS ON MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO
BRING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS, REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS,
AND STEEP SEAS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE TILL MIDWEEK. THEN A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTH GALES INTO
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ENP MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FT DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO WIND SEAS AND FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

NSK/NSK/SBN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 011139 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
339 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS AND ADDED SOME WIND
HIGHLIGHTS FOR NEXT FEW SYSTEMS.

.DISCUSSION...TODAY REPRESENTS A TRANSITION DAY TOWARDS AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN AFTER WEEKS OF GENERALLY STAGNANT WEATHER. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA...FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. THIS FRONT WILL MIX UP THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO END THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORIES BY
THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND...MORE POTENT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE CURRY COUNTY COAST...A QUARTER INCH
TO MOST WEST SIDE VALLEYS...AND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE
EAST SIDE. THESE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE VIRTUALLY ALL RAIN...WITH SNOW LEVELS AT 7500
FEET AND HIGHER. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
700MB FLOW REACHING 50KT FROM THE WEST ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
MODELS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL MONDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND
THEN GET RE-ENERGIZED AS ANOTHER SHOT OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING...WAVING NORTH AND BRINGING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE CASCADES.
WE HAVE FAVORED THE HEAVIER RAIN SOLUTIONS OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR
THIS PERIOD...THOUGH HAVE TEMPERED THEM A LITTLE BY BLENDING SOME
OF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. WINDS WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH 700MB WINDS PEAKING AT 55KT PER THE GFS...SO
EAST SIDE WINDS WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE MET...OR MORE. RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES COULD GET UNSEASONABLY WARM IN VALLEYS IF FOG DOES
NOT DEVELOP...AND DENSE FOG LOOKS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT STRONG
INVERSIONS REALLY WON`T HAVE TIME TO SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING A HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WIND EVENT. GEFS-BASED TOOLS THAT HELP GAUGE HOW SIGNIFICANT
A RAIN EVENT WILL BE ARE SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A ONCE-IN-TEN-
YEAR TYPE EVENT FOR THE COAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL. RIVERS ARE
CURRENTLY WELL BELOW NORMAL IN TERMS OF STREAMFLOW...SO ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR FLOODING...BUT DO BELIEVE THERE IS STILL
SOME POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL RIVER OR STREAM FLOODING IF THE VERY WET
GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES. CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE MARINE IMPACTS WITH
GALES AND POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST...HIGH
TERRAIN...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST SIDE DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 01/12Z TAF CYCLE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
PATCHY FOG FOR INLAND WEST SIDE VALLEYS THROUGH 16Z. THEN AN
INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME WEST SIDE
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY, MAINLY COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. ALSO
EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS CASCADES WEST TODAY. THEN THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 355 AM PST SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2015...LIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS  THE WATERS ON MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO
BRING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS, REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS,
AND STEEP SEAS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE TILL MIDWEEK. THEN A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTH GALES INTO
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ENP MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FT DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO WIND SEAS AND FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

NSK/NSK/SBN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 011139 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
339 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS AND ADDED SOME WIND
HIGHLIGHTS FOR NEXT FEW SYSTEMS.

.DISCUSSION...TODAY REPRESENTS A TRANSITION DAY TOWARDS AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN AFTER WEEKS OF GENERALLY STAGNANT WEATHER. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA...FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. THIS FRONT WILL MIX UP THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO END THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORIES BY
THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND...MORE POTENT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE CURRY COUNTY COAST...A QUARTER INCH
TO MOST WEST SIDE VALLEYS...AND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE
EAST SIDE. THESE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE VIRTUALLY ALL RAIN...WITH SNOW LEVELS AT 7500
FEET AND HIGHER. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
700MB FLOW REACHING 50KT FROM THE WEST ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
MODELS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL MONDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND
THEN GET RE-ENERGIZED AS ANOTHER SHOT OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING...WAVING NORTH AND BRINGING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE CASCADES.
WE HAVE FAVORED THE HEAVIER RAIN SOLUTIONS OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR
THIS PERIOD...THOUGH HAVE TEMPERED THEM A LITTLE BY BLENDING SOME
OF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. WINDS WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH 700MB WINDS PEAKING AT 55KT PER THE GFS...SO
EAST SIDE WINDS WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE MET...OR MORE. RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES COULD GET UNSEASONABLY WARM IN VALLEYS IF FOG DOES
NOT DEVELOP...AND DENSE FOG LOOKS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT STRONG
INVERSIONS REALLY WON`T HAVE TIME TO SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING A HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WIND EVENT. GEFS-BASED TOOLS THAT HELP GAUGE HOW SIGNIFICANT
A RAIN EVENT WILL BE ARE SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A ONCE-IN-TEN-
YEAR TYPE EVENT FOR THE COAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL. RIVERS ARE
CURRENTLY WELL BELOW NORMAL IN TERMS OF STREAMFLOW...SO ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR FLOODING...BUT DO BELIEVE THERE IS STILL
SOME POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL RIVER OR STREAM FLOODING IF THE VERY WET
GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES. CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE MARINE IMPACTS WITH
GALES AND POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST...HIGH
TERRAIN...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST SIDE DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 01/12Z TAF CYCLE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
PATCHY FOG FOR INLAND WEST SIDE VALLEYS THROUGH 16Z. THEN AN
INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME WEST SIDE
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY, MAINLY COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. ALSO
EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS CASCADES WEST TODAY. THEN THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 355 AM PST SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2015...LIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS  THE WATERS ON MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO
BRING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS, REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS,
AND STEEP SEAS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE TILL MIDWEEK. THEN A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTH GALES INTO
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ENP MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FT DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO WIND SEAS AND FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

NSK/NSK/SBN



000
FXUS66 KPDT 011136 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
335 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST AS A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS INTO CENTRAL OREGON. AREAS OF
DENSE FREEZING FOG AT BEND REDMOND AND PRINEVILLE. AN ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10AM. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY SHOULD HELP TO
LIFT OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY. ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE 5000-7000 FEET THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN.
SOME SNOW LIKELY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THE FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
ALSO BRING OCCASIONAL BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH THE LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS TODAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S AGAIN.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.  94

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT THEY SHOULD RESOLVE
THEMSELVES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
00Z ECMWF AND GFS IS THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE BOTH MODELS BUILD A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG
THE COAST...THE ECMWF HOLDS A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA
WITH RAIN CONTINUING...BUT THE GFS IS MOSTLY DRY. HAVE THEREFORE
KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. THE MODELS COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH A WARM FRONT AND ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE THAT
COULD BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW
ON SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT BRINGS
MORE RAIN. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL KEEP MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPSC. AT KPSC...HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT HAVE ALLOWED THE LOW STRATUS TO ERODE.
KRDM AND KBDN WILL REMAIN LIFR UNTIL AROUND 15Z WHEN THE INCOMING
SYSTEM WILL BREAK SURFACE INVERSIONS. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KPDT AND KALW AROUND SUNRISE. OTHER TAF LOCATIONS WILL
ALSO IMPROVE AFTER 15-18Z THOUGH MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AS
RAIN MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  39  36  50  38 /  50  40  60  30
ALW  40  39  50  40 /  50  40  60  30
PSC  42  34  49  38 /  40  30  60  20
YKM  40  32  45  33 /  30  20  60  20
HRI  41  36  50  40 /  40  30  60  20
ELN  39  31  43  33 /  40  20  60  20
RDM  44  36  53  35 /  40  30  70  20
LGD  44  34  46  35 /  40  50  70  40
GCD  45  33  49  33 /  40  40  60  30
DLS  44  38  50  40 /  50  30  70  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ511.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/82/82







000
FXUS66 KPDT 011136 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
335 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST AS A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS INTO CENTRAL OREGON. AREAS OF
DENSE FREEZING FOG AT BEND REDMOND AND PRINEVILLE. AN ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10AM. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY SHOULD HELP TO
LIFT OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY. ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE 5000-7000 FEET THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN.
SOME SNOW LIKELY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THE FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
ALSO BRING OCCASIONAL BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH THE LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS TODAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S AGAIN.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.  94

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT THEY SHOULD RESOLVE
THEMSELVES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
00Z ECMWF AND GFS IS THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE BOTH MODELS BUILD A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG
THE COAST...THE ECMWF HOLDS A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA
WITH RAIN CONTINUING...BUT THE GFS IS MOSTLY DRY. HAVE THEREFORE
KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. THE MODELS COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH A WARM FRONT AND ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE THAT
COULD BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW
ON SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT BRINGS
MORE RAIN. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL KEEP MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPSC. AT KPSC...HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT HAVE ALLOWED THE LOW STRATUS TO ERODE.
KRDM AND KBDN WILL REMAIN LIFR UNTIL AROUND 15Z WHEN THE INCOMING
SYSTEM WILL BREAK SURFACE INVERSIONS. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KPDT AND KALW AROUND SUNRISE. OTHER TAF LOCATIONS WILL
ALSO IMPROVE AFTER 15-18Z THOUGH MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AS
RAIN MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  39  36  50  38 /  50  40  60  30
ALW  40  39  50  40 /  50  40  60  30
PSC  42  34  49  38 /  40  30  60  20
YKM  40  32  45  33 /  30  20  60  20
HRI  41  36  50  40 /  40  30  60  20
ELN  39  31  43  33 /  40  20  60  20
RDM  44  36  53  35 /  40  30  70  20
LGD  44  34  46  35 /  40  50  70  40
GCD  45  33  49  33 /  40  40  60  30
DLS  44  38  50  40 /  50  30  70  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ511.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/82/82






000
FXUS65 KBOI 011042
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
342 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BY MONDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT
VALLEY RAIN /SOME AREAS RAIN SHADOWED/ AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING NORTHERN ZONES A THREAT OF RAIN OR SNOW
TODAY AND ANOTHER BIT STRONGER SYSTEM CROSSES SE OREGON THIS
EVENING AND WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES SW IDAHO TONIGHT...DUE TO THE
LONG WAVE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
BUT MOUNTAINS WILL COOL OFF FROM RECENT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY 3500 TO 4500 NORTH AND 5500-6500 SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WET CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUMPS
MOISTURE INLAND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 4500 FT TO 6500 FT
MSL FOR PERIODS OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEYS.
DRIER OVERALL ON THURSDAY...AS A PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND OVER
OREGON/IDAHO. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS QUICKLY EASTWARD AND MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW /ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE/ BRINGS MORE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
NOTABLE...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO RISE TO 6000 TO 7500 FT MSL.
EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN /EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN/
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH 20Z WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTER 20Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY 4500-5500 FT
MSL NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...LOWERING TO 3000-4000 FT MSL NEAR KBKE
AND KMYL. SE TO SW SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....MT
AVIATION.....MT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 011042
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
342 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BY MONDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT
VALLEY RAIN /SOME AREAS RAIN SHADOWED/ AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING NORTHERN ZONES A THREAT OF RAIN OR SNOW
TODAY AND ANOTHER BIT STRONGER SYSTEM CROSSES SE OREGON THIS
EVENING AND WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES SW IDAHO TONIGHT...DUE TO THE
LONG WAVE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
BUT MOUNTAINS WILL COOL OFF FROM RECENT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY 3500 TO 4500 NORTH AND 5500-6500 SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WET CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUMPS
MOISTURE INLAND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 4500 FT TO 6500 FT
MSL FOR PERIODS OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEYS.
DRIER OVERALL ON THURSDAY...AS A PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND OVER
OREGON/IDAHO. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS QUICKLY EASTWARD AND MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW /ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE/ BRINGS MORE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
NOTABLE...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO RISE TO 6000 TO 7500 FT MSL.
EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN /EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN/
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH 20Z WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTER 20Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY 4500-5500 FT
MSL NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...LOWERING TO 3000-4000 FT MSL NEAR KBKE
AND KMYL. SE TO SW SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....MT
AVIATION.....MT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 011042
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
342 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BY MONDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT
VALLEY RAIN /SOME AREAS RAIN SHADOWED/ AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING NORTHERN ZONES A THREAT OF RAIN OR SNOW
TODAY AND ANOTHER BIT STRONGER SYSTEM CROSSES SE OREGON THIS
EVENING AND WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES SW IDAHO TONIGHT...DUE TO THE
LONG WAVE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
BUT MOUNTAINS WILL COOL OFF FROM RECENT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY 3500 TO 4500 NORTH AND 5500-6500 SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WET CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUMPS
MOISTURE INLAND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 4500 FT TO 6500 FT
MSL FOR PERIODS OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEYS.
DRIER OVERALL ON THURSDAY...AS A PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND OVER
OREGON/IDAHO. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS QUICKLY EASTWARD AND MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW /ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE/ BRINGS MORE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
NOTABLE...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO RISE TO 6000 TO 7500 FT MSL.
EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN /EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN/
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH 20Z WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTER 20Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY 4500-5500 FT
MSL NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...LOWERING TO 3000-4000 FT MSL NEAR KBKE
AND KMYL. SE TO SW SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....MT
AVIATION.....MT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 011042
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
342 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BY MONDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT
VALLEY RAIN /SOME AREAS RAIN SHADOWED/ AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING NORTHERN ZONES A THREAT OF RAIN OR SNOW
TODAY AND ANOTHER BIT STRONGER SYSTEM CROSSES SE OREGON THIS
EVENING AND WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES SW IDAHO TONIGHT...DUE TO THE
LONG WAVE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
BUT MOUNTAINS WILL COOL OFF FROM RECENT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY 3500 TO 4500 NORTH AND 5500-6500 SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WET CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUMPS
MOISTURE INLAND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 4500 FT TO 6500 FT
MSL FOR PERIODS OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS ELEVATED VALLEYS.
DRIER OVERALL ON THURSDAY...AS A PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND OVER
OREGON/IDAHO. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS QUICKLY EASTWARD AND MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW /ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE/ BRINGS MORE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
NOTABLE...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO RISE TO 6000 TO 7500 FT MSL.
EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN /EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN/
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH 20Z WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTER 20Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY 4500-5500 FT
MSL NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...LOWERING TO 3000-4000 FT MSL NEAR KBKE
AND KMYL. SE TO SW SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....MT
AVIATION.....MT




000
FXUS66 KPDT 011041
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
244 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST AS A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS INTO CENTRAL OREGON. AREAS OF
DENSE FREEZING FOG AT BEND REDMOND AND PRINEVILLE. AN ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10AM. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY SHOULD HELP TO
LIFT OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY. ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE 5000-7000 FEET THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN.
SOME SNOW LIKELY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THE FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
ALSO BRING OCCASIONAL BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH THE LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS TODAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S AGAIN.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.  94

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT THEY SHOULD RESOLVE
THEMSELVES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
00Z ECMWF AND GFS IS THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE BOTH MODELS BUILD A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG
THE COAST...THE ECMWF HOLDS A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA
WITH RAIN CONTINUING...BUT THE GFS IS MOSTLY DRY. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. THE MODELS COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH A WARM FRONT AND ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE THAT
COULD BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW
ON SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT BRINGS
MORE RAIN. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL
KEEP MVFR OR BELOW CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES. KRDM AND KBDN WILL
REMAIN LIFR/BELOW MINS UNTIL 15Z WHEN THE WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL
BREAK SURFACE INVERSIONS. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPDT
AND KALW. OTHER TAF LOCATIONS WILL ALSO IMPROVE AFTER 15-18Z THOUGH
MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  39  36  50  38 /  50  40  60  30
ALW  40  39  50  40 /  50  40  60  30
PSC  42  34  49  38 /  40  30  60  20
YKM  40  32  45  33 /  30  20  60  20
HRI  41  36  50  40 /  40  30  60  20
ELN  39  31  43  33 /  40  20  60  20
RDM  44  36  53  35 /  40  30  70  20
LGD  44  34  46  35 /  40  50  70  40
GCD  45  33  49  33 /  40  40  60  30
DLS  44  38  50  40 /  50  30  70  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ511.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/82/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 011041
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
244 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST AS A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS INTO CENTRAL OREGON. AREAS OF
DENSE FREEZING FOG AT BEND REDMOND AND PRINEVILLE. AN ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10AM. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY SHOULD HELP TO
LIFT OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY. ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE 5000-7000 FEET THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN.
SOME SNOW LIKELY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THE FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
ALSO BRING OCCASIONAL BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH THE LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS TODAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S AGAIN.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.  94

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT THEY SHOULD RESOLVE
THEMSELVES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
00Z ECMWF AND GFS IS THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE BOTH MODELS BUILD A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG
THE COAST...THE ECMWF HOLDS A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA
WITH RAIN CONTINUING...BUT THE GFS IS MOSTLY DRY. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. THE MODELS COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH A WARM FRONT AND ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE THAT
COULD BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW
ON SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT BRINGS
MORE RAIN. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL
KEEP MVFR OR BELOW CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES. KRDM AND KBDN WILL
REMAIN LIFR/BELOW MINS UNTIL 15Z WHEN THE WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL
BREAK SURFACE INVERSIONS. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPDT
AND KALW. OTHER TAF LOCATIONS WILL ALSO IMPROVE AFTER 15-18Z THOUGH
MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  39  36  50  38 /  50  40  60  30
ALW  40  39  50  40 /  50  40  60  30
PSC  42  34  49  38 /  40  30  60  20
YKM  40  32  45  33 /  30  20  60  20
HRI  41  36  50  40 /  40  30  60  20
ELN  39  31  43  33 /  40  20  60  20
RDM  44  36  53  35 /  40  30  70  20
LGD  44  34  46  35 /  40  50  70  40
GCD  45  33  49  33 /  40  40  60  30
DLS  44  38  50  40 /  50  30  70  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ511.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/82/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 011041
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
244 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST AS A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS INTO CENTRAL OREGON. AREAS OF
DENSE FREEZING FOG AT BEND REDMOND AND PRINEVILLE. AN ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10AM. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY SHOULD HELP TO
LIFT OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY. ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE 5000-7000 FEET THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN.
SOME SNOW LIKELY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THE FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
ALSO BRING OCCASIONAL BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH THE LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS TODAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S AGAIN.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.  94

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT THEY SHOULD RESOLVE
THEMSELVES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
00Z ECMWF AND GFS IS THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE BOTH MODELS BUILD A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG
THE COAST...THE ECMWF HOLDS A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA
WITH RAIN CONTINUING...BUT THE GFS IS MOSTLY DRY. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. THE MODELS COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH A WARM FRONT AND ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE THAT
COULD BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW
ON SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT BRINGS
MORE RAIN. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL
KEEP MVFR OR BELOW CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES. KRDM AND KBDN WILL
REMAIN LIFR/BELOW MINS UNTIL 15Z WHEN THE WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL
BREAK SURFACE INVERSIONS. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPDT
AND KALW. OTHER TAF LOCATIONS WILL ALSO IMPROVE AFTER 15-18Z THOUGH
MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  39  36  50  38 /  50  40  60  30
ALW  40  39  50  40 /  50  40  60  30
PSC  42  34  49  38 /  40  30  60  20
YKM  40  32  45  33 /  30  20  60  20
HRI  41  36  50  40 /  40  30  60  20
ELN  39  31  43  33 /  40  20  60  20
RDM  44  36  53  35 /  40  30  70  20
LGD  44  34  46  35 /  40  50  70  40
GCD  45  33  49  33 /  40  40  60  30
DLS  44  38  50  40 /  50  30  70  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ511.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/82/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 011041
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
244 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST AS A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS INTO CENTRAL OREGON. AREAS OF
DENSE FREEZING FOG AT BEND REDMOND AND PRINEVILLE. AN ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10AM. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY SHOULD HELP TO
LIFT OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY. ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE 5000-7000 FEET THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN.
SOME SNOW LIKELY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THE FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
ALSO BRING OCCASIONAL BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH THE LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS TODAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S AGAIN.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.  94

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT THEY SHOULD RESOLVE
THEMSELVES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
00Z ECMWF AND GFS IS THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE BOTH MODELS BUILD A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG
THE COAST...THE ECMWF HOLDS A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA
WITH RAIN CONTINUING...BUT THE GFS IS MOSTLY DRY. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. THE MODELS COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH A WARM FRONT AND ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE THAT
COULD BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW
ON SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT BRINGS
MORE RAIN. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL
KEEP MVFR OR BELOW CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES. KRDM AND KBDN WILL
REMAIN LIFR/BELOW MINS UNTIL 15Z WHEN THE WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL
BREAK SURFACE INVERSIONS. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPDT
AND KALW. OTHER TAF LOCATIONS WILL ALSO IMPROVE AFTER 15-18Z THOUGH
MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  39  36  50  38 /  50  40  60  30
ALW  40  39  50  40 /  50  40  60  30
PSC  42  34  49  38 /  40  30  60  20
YKM  40  32  45  33 /  30  20  60  20
HRI  41  36  50  40 /  40  30  60  20
ELN  39  31  43  33 /  40  20  60  20
RDM  44  36  53  35 /  40  30  70  20
LGD  44  34  46  35 /  40  50  70  40
GCD  45  33  49  33 /  40  40  60  30
DLS  44  38  50  40 /  50  30  70  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ511.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/82/82









000
FXUS66 KPQR 011022
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
221 AM PST SUN FEB  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY AS A
WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY...LIKELY SHIFTING TO WEAK
ONSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE COAST THIS MORNING THEN REACH THE CASCADES BY THE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. A MUCH WETTER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. COMPUTER MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW HIGH VARIABILITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS A BRIEF DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO A MUCH WETTER PATTERN LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN STORY EARLY THIS MORNING
IS THE LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. AT 0930Z THE KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT WAS
AT -6.4 MB...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE 03-HR FORECAST FROM THE 06Z NAM
RUN. THIS GRADIENT IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH AT THE WEST
END OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE...BUT UP TO 65 MPH AT CROWN POINT. THESE
GUSTS ARE DOWN ABOUT 10 MPH FROM LATE SAT EVENING. THE COOL POOL
APPEARS TO BE A BIT DEEPER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
26F DEGREE READING AT A RAWS SITE AT 3450 FT MSL IN THE S WA
CASCADES. THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS BEING SUPPLEMENTED BY AN
APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM...ALLOWING LOWERING PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FOR INCREASING GRADIENTS. THE 06Z NAM ELIMINATES THE
OFFSHORE GRADIENT BY 21Z TODAY...BUT IT TENDS TO WEAKEN THE OFFSHORE
FLOW TOO SOON. WOULD EXPECT THE EAST WIND TO DIE OFF MORE TOWARD 00Z
OR EVEN EARLY THIS EVENING.

KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING SOME PRECIP ECHOES NEARING THE
COAST AS OF 0930Z. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED FOG
FORMATION. KEUG HAD DROPPED TO ONE-QUARTER MILE EARLIER BUT HAS COME
UP TO JUST OVER 2 MILES VISIBILITY SHORTLY BEFORE 10Z. NOT MUCH
CHANGE TO THE SUNDAY FORECAST. MODELS AGREE THAT PRECIP ALONG THE
COAST SHOULD COMMENCE AROUND 12-14Z AND THEN SPREAD INLAND.
INITIALLY...THE LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SLOW THE MOISTENING
PROCESS OF THE COLUMN...THUS NOT EXPECTING PRECIP TO BEGIN AT KPDX
UNTIL AROUND 16-18Z. THE 08Z HRRR SHOWS PRECIP BY 16Z...BUT BELIEVE
THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO SOON. IN ANY EVENT...PRECIP WITH THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...MAYBE ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH
TOTAL FOR THE COAST RANGE...WILLAPA HILLS AND CASCADES. PRECIP LIKELY
TO BEGIN AS SNOW IN EASTERN SKAMANIA COUNTY OF SW WA AND THE EAST
SIDE OF MT. HOOD DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DEEP COOL POOL. THIS SYSTEM
MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TOTALLY MIX OUT THE COLDER AIR IN THOSE
AREAS. ANY PRECIP IN THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STAY AS
LIQUID.

MODELS ALSO IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM.
MAIN MODEL DISCREPANCIES LIE IN THE TIMING AND FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST
QPF. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A BIT FASTER AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST QPF
OVER SWRN OREGON MON MORNING. GFS HAS THE QPF BULLS-EYE A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH WHILE THE NAM IS JUST A TOUCH MORE N THAN THE GFS. NAM
ALSO ALSO DEVELOPS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE LOW NEAR BUOY 029 18Z
MON WHILE THE GFS HAS IT A BIT WEAKER AND FURTHER N. BREEZY TO WINDY
SOUTH WIND WOULD DEVELOP IF THE NAM VERIFIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. NAM ALSO SHOWS A SHARPER AND MORE DYNAMIC COLD FRONT. THIS
WOULD ALSO BREAK THROUGH VALLEY INVERSIONS AND WARM UP THE LOWLANDS
CONSIDERABLY...JUST BEFORE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ADDITION...00Z
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY...WITH
CAPE OF 400-800 J/KG JUST ABOVE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. THERE IS THE
SLIM POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DECENT DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITHIN THE UNSTABLE LAYER. HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

TOTAL QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 1.5
INCHES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND 0.25 TO 0.75 FOR THE LOWLANDS. MODELS
THEN START TO DIVERGE MON NIGHT AND BEYOND. THE ECMWF BRINGS A WARM
FRONT INTO SWRN OREGON TUE MORNING....AS DOES THE NAM BUT IT HAS IT A
LITTLE MORE TO THE S...CLOSER TO THE CALIFORNIA BORDER. THE GFS IS
MORE IN BETWEEN THE TWO. THIS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS N
TUE AFTERNOON...BUT STAYS S OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BY 00Z WED.
THUS...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MUCH LOWER IN THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON
CASCADES TUE...COMPARED TO AREAS S OF MT. JEFFERSON. WEISHAAR

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SOLUTIONS VARY IN
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE GFS INDICATES AN UPPER RIDGE RETURNING TO
THE PACIFIC NW WED WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS A REMNANT WARM-FRONTAL
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. THERE IS A THE GEM IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE GFS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTEMENTS
TO THE WED AND WED NIGHT PERIODS...MAINLY TO TRIM POPS A BIT. SHOULD
THE GFS PAN OUT...FURTHER REDUCTION WOULD BE NECESSARY AND WOULD ALSO
NEED TO CONSIDER THE INCLUSION OF NIGHT NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. MODELS ARE IN SURPRISING AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF MUCH WETTER WEATHER
WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS A SWATH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF
ATMOSPHERIC WAVES SETS UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
WILL LIKELY BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAS OF
PRIMARY QPF FOCUS REMAIN RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...THE COAST AS WELL AS NORTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY SITES REMAINS VFR AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THESE AREAS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND KSLE
OCCASIONALLY REDUCING CIGS/VSBYS AT THIS SITE. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER OVER NIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z ALONG
THE COAST AND CLOSER TO 16Z AT SITES IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
FURTHER SOUTH...LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KEUG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SHOWERS START TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AROUND 16Z. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTY EAST WINDS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
CIGS FALLING FROM 100 TO 050 AROUND 16Z SUN ALONG WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING. MAY SEE IFR CIGS WORK SOUTH ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR
FROM THE KKLS AREA TOWARD KPDX BUT EASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM THE GORGE
SHOULD KEEP IT AS AN IFR STRATUS DECK IF IT ARRIVES AT ALL. RAIN
PICKS UP AROUND 16Z AND CIGS FALL TO 025. EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND A TRANSITION TO SHOWERS NEAR 23Z. -MCCOY/JBONK

&&

.MARINE...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING OUR WATERS THIS
MORNING AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW THAT GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS WILL BE
PREVALENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...THOUGH A FEW
GUSTS OVER 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT NEARS
SHORE. SEAS START TO INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT TODAY. A SECOND...STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO INCREASE SEAS TO 10
TO 12 FT. WINDS AND SEAS START TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY...BRINGING
SEAS BACK DOWN TO AROUND 7 TO 8 FT BY MIDWEEK AS SHORT-LIVED HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...WHICH
COULD GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD GET IRONED OUT AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 011022
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
221 AM PST SUN FEB  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY AS A
WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY...LIKELY SHIFTING TO WEAK
ONSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE COAST THIS MORNING THEN REACH THE CASCADES BY THE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. A MUCH WETTER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. COMPUTER MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW HIGH VARIABILITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS A BRIEF DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO A MUCH WETTER PATTERN LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN STORY EARLY THIS MORNING
IS THE LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. AT 0930Z THE KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT WAS
AT -6.4 MB...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE 03-HR FORECAST FROM THE 06Z NAM
RUN. THIS GRADIENT IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH AT THE WEST
END OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE...BUT UP TO 65 MPH AT CROWN POINT. THESE
GUSTS ARE DOWN ABOUT 10 MPH FROM LATE SAT EVENING. THE COOL POOL
APPEARS TO BE A BIT DEEPER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
26F DEGREE READING AT A RAWS SITE AT 3450 FT MSL IN THE S WA
CASCADES. THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS BEING SUPPLEMENTED BY AN
APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM...ALLOWING LOWERING PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FOR INCREASING GRADIENTS. THE 06Z NAM ELIMINATES THE
OFFSHORE GRADIENT BY 21Z TODAY...BUT IT TENDS TO WEAKEN THE OFFSHORE
FLOW TOO SOON. WOULD EXPECT THE EAST WIND TO DIE OFF MORE TOWARD 00Z
OR EVEN EARLY THIS EVENING.

KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING SOME PRECIP ECHOES NEARING THE
COAST AS OF 0930Z. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED FOG
FORMATION. KEUG HAD DROPPED TO ONE-QUARTER MILE EARLIER BUT HAS COME
UP TO JUST OVER 2 MILES VISIBILITY SHORTLY BEFORE 10Z. NOT MUCH
CHANGE TO THE SUNDAY FORECAST. MODELS AGREE THAT PRECIP ALONG THE
COAST SHOULD COMMENCE AROUND 12-14Z AND THEN SPREAD INLAND.
INITIALLY...THE LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SLOW THE MOISTENING
PROCESS OF THE COLUMN...THUS NOT EXPECTING PRECIP TO BEGIN AT KPDX
UNTIL AROUND 16-18Z. THE 08Z HRRR SHOWS PRECIP BY 16Z...BUT BELIEVE
THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO SOON. IN ANY EVENT...PRECIP WITH THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...MAYBE ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH
TOTAL FOR THE COAST RANGE...WILLAPA HILLS AND CASCADES. PRECIP LIKELY
TO BEGIN AS SNOW IN EASTERN SKAMANIA COUNTY OF SW WA AND THE EAST
SIDE OF MT. HOOD DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DEEP COOL POOL. THIS SYSTEM
MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TOTALLY MIX OUT THE COLDER AIR IN THOSE
AREAS. ANY PRECIP IN THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STAY AS
LIQUID.

MODELS ALSO IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM.
MAIN MODEL DISCREPANCIES LIE IN THE TIMING AND FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST
QPF. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A BIT FASTER AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST QPF
OVER SWRN OREGON MON MORNING. GFS HAS THE QPF BULLS-EYE A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH WHILE THE NAM IS JUST A TOUCH MORE N THAN THE GFS. NAM
ALSO ALSO DEVELOPS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE LOW NEAR BUOY 029 18Z
MON WHILE THE GFS HAS IT A BIT WEAKER AND FURTHER N. BREEZY TO WINDY
SOUTH WIND WOULD DEVELOP IF THE NAM VERIFIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. NAM ALSO SHOWS A SHARPER AND MORE DYNAMIC COLD FRONT. THIS
WOULD ALSO BREAK THROUGH VALLEY INVERSIONS AND WARM UP THE LOWLANDS
CONSIDERABLY...JUST BEFORE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ADDITION...00Z
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY...WITH
CAPE OF 400-800 J/KG JUST ABOVE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. THERE IS THE
SLIM POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DECENT DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITHIN THE UNSTABLE LAYER. HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

TOTAL QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 1.5
INCHES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND 0.25 TO 0.75 FOR THE LOWLANDS. MODELS
THEN START TO DIVERGE MON NIGHT AND BEYOND. THE ECMWF BRINGS A WARM
FRONT INTO SWRN OREGON TUE MORNING....AS DOES THE NAM BUT IT HAS IT A
LITTLE MORE TO THE S...CLOSER TO THE CALIFORNIA BORDER. THE GFS IS
MORE IN BETWEEN THE TWO. THIS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS N
TUE AFTERNOON...BUT STAYS S OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BY 00Z WED.
THUS...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MUCH LOWER IN THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON
CASCADES TUE...COMPARED TO AREAS S OF MT. JEFFERSON. WEISHAAR

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SOLUTIONS VARY IN
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE GFS INDICATES AN UPPER RIDGE RETURNING TO
THE PACIFIC NW WED WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS A REMNANT WARM-FRONTAL
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. THERE IS A THE GEM IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE GFS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTEMENTS
TO THE WED AND WED NIGHT PERIODS...MAINLY TO TRIM POPS A BIT. SHOULD
THE GFS PAN OUT...FURTHER REDUCTION WOULD BE NECESSARY AND WOULD ALSO
NEED TO CONSIDER THE INCLUSION OF NIGHT NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. MODELS ARE IN SURPRISING AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF MUCH WETTER WEATHER
WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS A SWATH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF
ATMOSPHERIC WAVES SETS UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
WILL LIKELY BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAS OF
PRIMARY QPF FOCUS REMAIN RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...THE COAST AS WELL AS NORTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY SITES REMAINS VFR AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THESE AREAS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND KSLE
OCCASIONALLY REDUCING CIGS/VSBYS AT THIS SITE. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER OVER NIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z ALONG
THE COAST AND CLOSER TO 16Z AT SITES IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
FURTHER SOUTH...LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KEUG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SHOWERS START TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AROUND 16Z. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTY EAST WINDS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
CIGS FALLING FROM 100 TO 050 AROUND 16Z SUN ALONG WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING. MAY SEE IFR CIGS WORK SOUTH ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR
FROM THE KKLS AREA TOWARD KPDX BUT EASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM THE GORGE
SHOULD KEEP IT AS AN IFR STRATUS DECK IF IT ARRIVES AT ALL. RAIN
PICKS UP AROUND 16Z AND CIGS FALL TO 025. EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND A TRANSITION TO SHOWERS NEAR 23Z. -MCCOY/JBONK

&&

.MARINE...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING OUR WATERS THIS
MORNING AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW THAT GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS WILL BE
PREVALENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...THOUGH A FEW
GUSTS OVER 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT NEARS
SHORE. SEAS START TO INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT TODAY. A SECOND...STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO INCREASE SEAS TO 10
TO 12 FT. WINDS AND SEAS START TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY...BRINGING
SEAS BACK DOWN TO AROUND 7 TO 8 FT BY MIDWEEK AS SHORT-LIVED HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...WHICH
COULD GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD GET IRONED OUT AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 010534
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
910 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE IN LINE WITH SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOWING A SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A VERY DRY LAYER UP TO A LITTLE
ABOVE RIDGE LEVELS AND PRECIP WILL HAVE TO FILL IN THIS DEFICIT
BEFORE IT REACHES THE VALLEY FLOORS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TOMORROW
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO LINGER NEAR GRANTS PASS, BUT IT`S SLOWLY ERODING AND EXPECT IT
TO CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH A
FEW SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER, MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND IT`S POSSIBLE THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO DELAY THE ONSET
OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR AT LEAST THE DURATION WILL NOT
BE AS LONG.

OUR FIRST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN QUITE SOME TIME IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH THE HIGHEST
QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE HIGH, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN.

THE MODELS SHOW WEAK RIDGING SUNDAY EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT IN
A TEMPORARY BREAK IN RAINFALL, THEN ANOTHER AND STRONGER FRONT
ARRIVES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL BRING MORE RAINFALL TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AND MOST
WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.

THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NEAR THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA
BORDER WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA. THE EC HAS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION IN COOS...NORTHERN CURRY AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. FOR NOW
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION, BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AND ADJUST IF THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
CONSENSUS.

THE EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
(GFS FURTHER SOUTH, EC NORTH) TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH SHOW
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH LENDS ME TO BELIEVE THAT
WE`LL HAVE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.
-PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR IN OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW
LEVELS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL CHARACTER OF THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY AND ITS EVOLUTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES ARE
SIGNIFICANT THOUGH TYPICAL FOR DAYS 4 TO 7 IN AN ACTIVE WINTER
PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
THEN LIKELY SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA. THIS MOVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH
THE APPROACH OF A DEEP TROUGH. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN FAR
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY RESULT IN A VERY WET AND
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND BUILD NORTHWARD WHILE THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL STILL BE NEAR OR IN OUR AREA AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES NORTH. AS A RESULT, THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
LOWERED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE BLANCO ALONG THE UMPQUA DIVIDE TO
CHILOQUIN AND VALLEY FALLS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IF
THE STATIONARY FRONT DOES REMAIN IN OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE TO IDAHO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD
FRONT REACHING THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING THEN WEAKENING OVER THE
WEST SIDE DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND
7500 FT MSL ON THURSDAY WITH WEST SIDE POPS IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY
CATEGORY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ON THE EAST SIDE.

A SERIES OF STRONGER FRONTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
REMAINING ABOVE 7000 FT MSL. AT THIS TIME, FOUR DISTINCT FRONTS ARE
INDICATED. THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE FAST MOVING BUT MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. /DW

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 01/00Z TAF CYCLE... WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO COUPLED
WITH INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MEAN THAT ONLY MVFR VIS
WITH LOCAL IFR CIG/VIS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND NEAR GRANTS PASS, WHERE
IFR AND LOCAL LIFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED. AN INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME WEST SIDE MVFR THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY, MAINLY COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PARTIAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS CASCADES WEST. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 215 PM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2015... LIGHT
NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT ALONG AND NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THEY WILL BE MORE VARIABLE AND GENERALLY
ONSHORE. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY
AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL BUILD AS
A SOMEWHAT STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MID-
WEEK WILL BUILD TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WITH GALES...AND EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE...ON OR ABOUT FRIDAY. BTL

&&

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

MAP/DW/BTL



000
FXUS66 KMFR 010534
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
910 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE IN LINE WITH SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOWING A SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A VERY DRY LAYER UP TO A LITTLE
ABOVE RIDGE LEVELS AND PRECIP WILL HAVE TO FILL IN THIS DEFICIT
BEFORE IT REACHES THE VALLEY FLOORS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TOMORROW
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO LINGER NEAR GRANTS PASS, BUT IT`S SLOWLY ERODING AND EXPECT IT
TO CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH A
FEW SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER, MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND IT`S POSSIBLE THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO DELAY THE ONSET
OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR AT LEAST THE DURATION WILL NOT
BE AS LONG.

OUR FIRST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN QUITE SOME TIME IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH THE HIGHEST
QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE HIGH, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN.

THE MODELS SHOW WEAK RIDGING SUNDAY EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT IN
A TEMPORARY BREAK IN RAINFALL, THEN ANOTHER AND STRONGER FRONT
ARRIVES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL BRING MORE RAINFALL TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AND MOST
WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.

THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NEAR THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA
BORDER WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA. THE EC HAS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION IN COOS...NORTHERN CURRY AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. FOR NOW
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION, BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AND ADJUST IF THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
CONSENSUS.

THE EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
(GFS FURTHER SOUTH, EC NORTH) TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH SHOW
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH LENDS ME TO BELIEVE THAT
WE`LL HAVE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.
-PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR IN OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW
LEVELS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL CHARACTER OF THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY AND ITS EVOLUTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES ARE
SIGNIFICANT THOUGH TYPICAL FOR DAYS 4 TO 7 IN AN ACTIVE WINTER
PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
THEN LIKELY SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA. THIS MOVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH
THE APPROACH OF A DEEP TROUGH. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN FAR
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY RESULT IN A VERY WET AND
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND BUILD NORTHWARD WHILE THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL STILL BE NEAR OR IN OUR AREA AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES NORTH. AS A RESULT, THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
LOWERED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE BLANCO ALONG THE UMPQUA DIVIDE TO
CHILOQUIN AND VALLEY FALLS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IF
THE STATIONARY FRONT DOES REMAIN IN OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE TO IDAHO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD
FRONT REACHING THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING THEN WEAKENING OVER THE
WEST SIDE DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND
7500 FT MSL ON THURSDAY WITH WEST SIDE POPS IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY
CATEGORY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ON THE EAST SIDE.

A SERIES OF STRONGER FRONTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
REMAINING ABOVE 7000 FT MSL. AT THIS TIME, FOUR DISTINCT FRONTS ARE
INDICATED. THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE FAST MOVING BUT MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. /DW

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 01/00Z TAF CYCLE... WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO COUPLED
WITH INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MEAN THAT ONLY MVFR VIS
WITH LOCAL IFR CIG/VIS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND NEAR GRANTS PASS, WHERE
IFR AND LOCAL LIFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED. AN INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME WEST SIDE MVFR THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY, MAINLY COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PARTIAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS CASCADES WEST. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 215 PM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2015... LIGHT
NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT ALONG AND NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THEY WILL BE MORE VARIABLE AND GENERALLY
ONSHORE. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY
AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL BUILD AS
A SOMEWHAT STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MID-
WEEK WILL BUILD TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WITH GALES...AND EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE...ON OR ABOUT FRIDAY. BTL

&&

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

MAP/DW/BTL



000
FXUS66 KMFR 010534
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
910 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE IN LINE WITH SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOWING A SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A VERY DRY LAYER UP TO A LITTLE
ABOVE RIDGE LEVELS AND PRECIP WILL HAVE TO FILL IN THIS DEFICIT
BEFORE IT REACHES THE VALLEY FLOORS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TOMORROW
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO LINGER NEAR GRANTS PASS, BUT IT`S SLOWLY ERODING AND EXPECT IT
TO CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH A
FEW SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER, MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND IT`S POSSIBLE THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO DELAY THE ONSET
OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR AT LEAST THE DURATION WILL NOT
BE AS LONG.

OUR FIRST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN QUITE SOME TIME IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH THE HIGHEST
QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE HIGH, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN.

THE MODELS SHOW WEAK RIDGING SUNDAY EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT IN
A TEMPORARY BREAK IN RAINFALL, THEN ANOTHER AND STRONGER FRONT
ARRIVES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL BRING MORE RAINFALL TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AND MOST
WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.

THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NEAR THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA
BORDER WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA. THE EC HAS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION IN COOS...NORTHERN CURRY AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. FOR NOW
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION, BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AND ADJUST IF THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
CONSENSUS.

THE EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
(GFS FURTHER SOUTH, EC NORTH) TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH SHOW
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH LENDS ME TO BELIEVE THAT
WE`LL HAVE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.
-PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR IN OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW
LEVELS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL CHARACTER OF THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY AND ITS EVOLUTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES ARE
SIGNIFICANT THOUGH TYPICAL FOR DAYS 4 TO 7 IN AN ACTIVE WINTER
PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
THEN LIKELY SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA. THIS MOVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH
THE APPROACH OF A DEEP TROUGH. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN FAR
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY RESULT IN A VERY WET AND
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND BUILD NORTHWARD WHILE THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL STILL BE NEAR OR IN OUR AREA AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES NORTH. AS A RESULT, THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
LOWERED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE BLANCO ALONG THE UMPQUA DIVIDE TO
CHILOQUIN AND VALLEY FALLS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IF
THE STATIONARY FRONT DOES REMAIN IN OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE TO IDAHO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD
FRONT REACHING THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING THEN WEAKENING OVER THE
WEST SIDE DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND
7500 FT MSL ON THURSDAY WITH WEST SIDE POPS IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY
CATEGORY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ON THE EAST SIDE.

A SERIES OF STRONGER FRONTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
REMAINING ABOVE 7000 FT MSL. AT THIS TIME, FOUR DISTINCT FRONTS ARE
INDICATED. THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE FAST MOVING BUT MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. /DW

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 01/00Z TAF CYCLE... WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO COUPLED
WITH INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MEAN THAT ONLY MVFR VIS
WITH LOCAL IFR CIG/VIS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND NEAR GRANTS PASS, WHERE
IFR AND LOCAL LIFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED. AN INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME WEST SIDE MVFR THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY, MAINLY COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PARTIAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS CASCADES WEST. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 215 PM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2015... LIGHT
NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT ALONG AND NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THEY WILL BE MORE VARIABLE AND GENERALLY
ONSHORE. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY
AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL BUILD AS
A SOMEWHAT STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MID-
WEEK WILL BUILD TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WITH GALES...AND EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE...ON OR ABOUT FRIDAY. BTL

&&

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

MAP/DW/BTL



000
FXUS66 KMFR 010534
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
910 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE IN LINE WITH SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOWING A SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A VERY DRY LAYER UP TO A LITTLE
ABOVE RIDGE LEVELS AND PRECIP WILL HAVE TO FILL IN THIS DEFICIT
BEFORE IT REACHES THE VALLEY FLOORS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TOMORROW
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO LINGER NEAR GRANTS PASS, BUT IT`S SLOWLY ERODING AND EXPECT IT
TO CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH A
FEW SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER, MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND IT`S POSSIBLE THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO DELAY THE ONSET
OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR AT LEAST THE DURATION WILL NOT
BE AS LONG.

OUR FIRST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN QUITE SOME TIME IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH THE HIGHEST
QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE HIGH, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN.

THE MODELS SHOW WEAK RIDGING SUNDAY EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT IN
A TEMPORARY BREAK IN RAINFALL, THEN ANOTHER AND STRONGER FRONT
ARRIVES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL BRING MORE RAINFALL TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AND MOST
WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.

THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NEAR THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA
BORDER WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA. THE EC HAS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION IN COOS...NORTHERN CURRY AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. FOR NOW
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION, BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AND ADJUST IF THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
CONSENSUS.

THE EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
(GFS FURTHER SOUTH, EC NORTH) TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH SHOW
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH LENDS ME TO BELIEVE THAT
WE`LL HAVE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.
-PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR IN OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW
LEVELS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL CHARACTER OF THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY AND ITS EVOLUTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES ARE
SIGNIFICANT THOUGH TYPICAL FOR DAYS 4 TO 7 IN AN ACTIVE WINTER
PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
THEN LIKELY SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA. THIS MOVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH
THE APPROACH OF A DEEP TROUGH. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN FAR
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY RESULT IN A VERY WET AND
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND BUILD NORTHWARD WHILE THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL STILL BE NEAR OR IN OUR AREA AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES NORTH. AS A RESULT, THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
LOWERED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE BLANCO ALONG THE UMPQUA DIVIDE TO
CHILOQUIN AND VALLEY FALLS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IF
THE STATIONARY FRONT DOES REMAIN IN OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE TO IDAHO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD
FRONT REACHING THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING THEN WEAKENING OVER THE
WEST SIDE DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND
7500 FT MSL ON THURSDAY WITH WEST SIDE POPS IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY
CATEGORY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ON THE EAST SIDE.

A SERIES OF STRONGER FRONTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
REMAINING ABOVE 7000 FT MSL. AT THIS TIME, FOUR DISTINCT FRONTS ARE
INDICATED. THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE FAST MOVING BUT MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. /DW

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 01/00Z TAF CYCLE... WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO COUPLED
WITH INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MEAN THAT ONLY MVFR VIS
WITH LOCAL IFR CIG/VIS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND NEAR GRANTS PASS, WHERE
IFR AND LOCAL LIFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED. AN INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME WEST SIDE MVFR THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY, MAINLY COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PARTIAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS CASCADES WEST. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 215 PM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2015... LIGHT
NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT ALONG AND NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THEY WILL BE MORE VARIABLE AND GENERALLY
ONSHORE. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY
AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL BUILD AS
A SOMEWHAT STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MID-
WEEK WILL BUILD TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WITH GALES...AND EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE...ON OR ABOUT FRIDAY. BTL

&&

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

MAP/DW/BTL



000
FXUS66 KPDT 010529 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
929 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...RADAR INDICATES LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST KITTITAS
COUNTY BUT PASS REPORTS...OBSERVATIONS...AND WEB CAMS DO NOT SHOW
IT REACHING THE GROUND YET. SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
ARE MOVING INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN OREGON. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST WET
BULB ZERO OF 2200 AND CURRENT TEMPERATURE 33 NEAR CLE ELUM WOULD
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS SNOW NEAR THE CASCADES.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG PERSIST OVER AREAS BELOW 3500
FT. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THESE TRENDS. COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL KEEP MVFR OR BELOW
CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES. KRDM AND KBDN WILL REMAIN LIFR/BELOW MINS
UNTIL 15Z WHEN THE WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL BREAK SURFACE INVERSIONS.
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPDT AND KALW. OTHER TAF
LOCATIONS WILL ALSO IMPROVE AFTER 15-18Z THOUGH MAINLY MVFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE. 76

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 246 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE REGION WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. THUS EXPECT THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSIONS TO REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG GENERALLY BELOW 3500-4000 FT MSL. THERE
MAY SOME LOCAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. AM UNSURE EXACTLY WHICH
LOCATIONS WILL SEE DENSE FOG, THUS WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT
THIS TIME. A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START BETWEEN 2000 AND 4000 FT MSL SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000 FT MSL BY AFTERNOON. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT ABOVE THESE LEVELS. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS LEADING TO
THE BREAK UP OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE AREA. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, SUNDAY NIGHT
DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. A STRONGER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE WETTER THAN
THE SYSTEM SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS MONDAY WILL BE HIGHER, RUNNING FROM
4500 TO 6500 FT MSL. THUS SNOW WILL LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
RIDGES. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WELL
MIXED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONALLY MILD. 90

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS
WA/OR INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE TWO STATE AREA. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALSO TIGHTEN AND BREEZY
SURFACE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  32  40  36  51 /  10  60  40  60
ALW  34  41  39  52 /  10  60  40  70
PSC  34  42  35  51 /  10  50  30  60
YKM  32  39  33  46 /  10  30  20  50
HRI  34  42  36  52 /  10  50  30  60
ELN  31  40  32  45 /  10  30  20  60
RDM  28  51  37  57 /   0  30  30  60
LGD  24  43  34  48 /   0  50  50  70
GCD  29  46  35  52 /  10  30  40  60
DLS  37  46  38  52 /  10  40  30  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76









000
FXUS66 KPDT 010529 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
929 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...RADAR INDICATES LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST KITTITAS
COUNTY BUT PASS REPORTS...OBSERVATIONS...AND WEB CAMS DO NOT SHOW
IT REACHING THE GROUND YET. SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
ARE MOVING INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN OREGON. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST WET
BULB ZERO OF 2200 AND CURRENT TEMPERATURE 33 NEAR CLE ELUM WOULD
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS SNOW NEAR THE CASCADES.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG PERSIST OVER AREAS BELOW 3500
FT. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THESE TRENDS. COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL KEEP MVFR OR BELOW
CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES. KRDM AND KBDN WILL REMAIN LIFR/BELOW MINS
UNTIL 15Z WHEN THE WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL BREAK SURFACE INVERSIONS.
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPDT AND KALW. OTHER TAF
LOCATIONS WILL ALSO IMPROVE AFTER 15-18Z THOUGH MAINLY MVFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE. 76

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 246 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE REGION WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. THUS EXPECT THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSIONS TO REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG GENERALLY BELOW 3500-4000 FT MSL. THERE
MAY SOME LOCAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. AM UNSURE EXACTLY WHICH
LOCATIONS WILL SEE DENSE FOG, THUS WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT
THIS TIME. A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START BETWEEN 2000 AND 4000 FT MSL SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000 FT MSL BY AFTERNOON. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT ABOVE THESE LEVELS. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS LEADING TO
THE BREAK UP OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE AREA. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, SUNDAY NIGHT
DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. A STRONGER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE WETTER THAN
THE SYSTEM SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS MONDAY WILL BE HIGHER, RUNNING FROM
4500 TO 6500 FT MSL. THUS SNOW WILL LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
RIDGES. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WELL
MIXED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONALLY MILD. 90

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS
WA/OR INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE TWO STATE AREA. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALSO TIGHTEN AND BREEZY
SURFACE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  32  40  36  51 /  10  60  40  60
ALW  34  41  39  52 /  10  60  40  70
PSC  34  42  35  51 /  10  50  30  60
YKM  32  39  33  46 /  10  30  20  50
HRI  34  42  36  52 /  10  50  30  60
ELN  31  40  32  45 /  10  30  20  60
RDM  28  51  37  57 /   0  30  30  60
LGD  24  43  34  48 /   0  50  50  70
GCD  29  46  35  52 /  10  30  40  60
DLS  37  46  38  52 /  10  40  30  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76








000
FXUS66 KPQR 010453
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ONSHORE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. MEANWHILE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE DRIVING BLUSTERY EAST WINDS NEAR THE WESTERN COLUMBIA GORGE. THE
CLOUDS AND WIND WILL PROBABLY KEEP FOG OUT OF MOST OF THE PORTLAND
METRO AREA TONIGHT...BUT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST SALEM
SOUTHWARD. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONGER FRONT
IS EXPECTED MONDAY...LIKELY BRINGING MORE RAIN AND SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS BOTH COAST AND INLAND...AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. COMPUTER MODELS DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
WILL BE DRY OR RAINY...BUT COME BACK INTO AGREEMENT THAT THE END OF
THE WEEK WILL BE WET. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO HIGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK FOR APPRECIABLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE CASCADE SNOWPACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EAST WINDS CONTINUE TO
RAMP UP THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE...WITH A RECENT GUST UP TO 64 MPH
IN CORBETT AND EARLIER GUSTS TO 75 MPH AT THE VISTA HOUSE ON CROWN
POINT. THE BRISK EAST WINDS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY -7.6 MB GRADIENTS
KTTD-KDLS. COLD POOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG EAST OF THE
CASCADES...WITH STRATUS REMAINING WIDESPREAD IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN.
MEANWHILE AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOWERING PRESSURE
OFFSHORE... RESULTING IN THE INCREASING GRADIENTS. AS USUAL THE 00Z
NAM UNDER- ANALYZES THE GRADIENT AND APPEARS TO WEAKEN THE EASTSIDE
HIGH TOO QUICKLY. THUS EXPECT A BRISK AND CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT FOR AT
LEAST THE EAST PDX/VUO METRO AND WEST GORGE...WITH FOG LIKELY HAVING
A HARD TIME FORMING NEARBY.

ELSEWHERE...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REMAIN STUBBORN IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY SOUTH OF SALEM AND ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR NORTH OF ABOUT
KALAMA THROUGH THE LEWIS COUNTY LINE. EXPECT THAT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL TONIGHT...KEEPING FOG FROM
BEING AS DENSE AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WAS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO
REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY MORNING IN EASTERN SKAMANIA
COUNTY AND THE EAST SIDE OF MOUNT HOOD...AS THE EASTERLY GRADIENTS
APPEAR TO BE JAMMING PLENTY OF EASTSIDE COLD AIR INTO THESE AREAS. IN
THE PAST HOUR...BUCK CREEK RAWS NEAR TROUT LAKE WAS 29 DEGREES... AND
A COUPLE ELEVATED SITES NEAR THE GORGE WERE IN THE UPPER 20S.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ONSHORE
SUNDAY...SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND AN INCH OR SO.
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY HANG JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE HOOD RIVER
VALLEY...SO SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY THERE OR
ON THE WESTERN OR CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE FLOOR.

MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHARPER AND MORE DYNAMIC
COLD FRONT IN ON MONDAY. AFTER A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAIN EARLY
MONDAY...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY MIDDAY MONDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD FINALLY BREAK THROUGH VALLEY
INVERSIONS AND WARM UP THE LOWLANDS CONSIDERABLY...JUST IN TIME FOR A
SHARP COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE OF 400-800 J/KG JUST ABOVE
LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUNCHING IN IT APPEARS THE
NAM IS A BIT TOO STUBBORN WITH THE INVERSIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
THE DOOR MAY OPEN UP FOR SOME SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WITH THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DECENT DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITHIN THE UNSTABLE LAYER. THEREFORE WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON ACCORDINGLY...COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY
IF ALL COMES TOGETHER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MONDAY FRONT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE
SUNDAY SYSTEM...AND WILL PRODUCE SLIGHTLY GUSTIER WINDS. AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS WINDS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 45 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND
30 MPH FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS. HOWEVER A STRONG WESTERLY PUSH BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT GUSTY IN THE CASCADES AS WELL. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE HIGHER AS WELL...EXPECT 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH OF RAIN FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETWEEN
0.25-0.50 INCH FOR THE LOW LANDS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 5500 AND 6500 FEET MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY 6
TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR THE VERY HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WEAKENING
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY BRING A DUSTING OF SNOW TO THE CASCADE
PASSES OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH SPOTTY 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET.  WEAGLE/TJ

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS FORECASTING AN UPPER RIDGE TO RETURN OVER THE
PACIFIC NW AND THE ECMWF FORECASTING A WEAKER RIDGE FURTHER
OFFSHORE...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE REGION. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT BOTH OF THESE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THEIR
FORECASTS...WITH THE GFS RIDGE AND THE ECMWF TROUGH BEING TOO STRONG.
THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR NW OREGON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN WET WEATHER. THINK
THERE WILL BE A BIT OF BOTH AND EXPECT A WARM FRONT WILL BRING VERY
LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH DRYING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS PANS
OUT AS A LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF RAIN FORECAST.

THE MODELS ARE THEN IN SURPRISING AGREEMENT THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SWATH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A
SERIES OF ATMOSPHERIC WAVES SETS UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO  PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE FIRST WEATHER
SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK PAN OUT BEFORE EVEN TRYING
TO DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KEUG WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT TONIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT WORKS TOWARD THE REGION.
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT MOST AREAS.
OTHERWISE...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING WITH RAIN DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z AT THE COAST AND CLOSER TO
16Z FOR THE I-5 CENTRIC TERMINALS. THE FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE
COAST NEAR 20Z AND AROUND 23Z INLAND. EXPECT SHOWERS AFTER THE
FRONT BUT NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR EXCEPT
FOR KEUG WHERE THEY MAY REMAIN STUCK IFR BUT WITH IMPROVED
VISIBILITY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH
GUSTY EAST WINDS. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE NEAREST THE GORGE. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS FALLING FROM 100 TO
050 AROUND 16Z SUN ALONG WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. MAY SEE IFR CIGS
WORK SOUTH ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM THE KKLS AREA TOWARD KPDX
BUT EASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM THE GORGE SHOULD KEEP IT AS AN IFR
STRATUS DECK IF IT ARRIVES AT ALL. RAIN PICKS UP AROUND 16Z AND
CIGS FALL TO 025. EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS NEAR 23Z. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...MINIMAL CHANGES. HAVE AGREED THE WINDS ON SUNDAY ARE
VERY MARGINAL FOR JUSTIFYING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SO WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING ONE AT THIS TIME. BULK OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS. /JBONK

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEMS CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FIRST FRONT
ON SUNDAY BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS WHILE BRINGING SEAS UP TO AROUND 8 FT. THE
SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...BRINGING SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KTS LIKELY. STRONG
WINDS WILL RAMP UP EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY UNTIL WINDS EASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SEAS UP TO AROUND 12 TO 13 FT
ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING
SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT. /27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 010453
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ONSHORE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. MEANWHILE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE DRIVING BLUSTERY EAST WINDS NEAR THE WESTERN COLUMBIA GORGE. THE
CLOUDS AND WIND WILL PROBABLY KEEP FOG OUT OF MOST OF THE PORTLAND
METRO AREA TONIGHT...BUT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST SALEM
SOUTHWARD. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONGER FRONT
IS EXPECTED MONDAY...LIKELY BRINGING MORE RAIN AND SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS BOTH COAST AND INLAND...AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. COMPUTER MODELS DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
WILL BE DRY OR RAINY...BUT COME BACK INTO AGREEMENT THAT THE END OF
THE WEEK WILL BE WET. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO HIGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK FOR APPRECIABLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE CASCADE SNOWPACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EAST WINDS CONTINUE TO
RAMP UP THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE...WITH A RECENT GUST UP TO 64 MPH
IN CORBETT AND EARLIER GUSTS TO 75 MPH AT THE VISTA HOUSE ON CROWN
POINT. THE BRISK EAST WINDS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY -7.6 MB GRADIENTS
KTTD-KDLS. COLD POOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG EAST OF THE
CASCADES...WITH STRATUS REMAINING WIDESPREAD IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN.
MEANWHILE AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOWERING PRESSURE
OFFSHORE... RESULTING IN THE INCREASING GRADIENTS. AS USUAL THE 00Z
NAM UNDER- ANALYZES THE GRADIENT AND APPEARS TO WEAKEN THE EASTSIDE
HIGH TOO QUICKLY. THUS EXPECT A BRISK AND CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT FOR AT
LEAST THE EAST PDX/VUO METRO AND WEST GORGE...WITH FOG LIKELY HAVING
A HARD TIME FORMING NEARBY.

ELSEWHERE...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REMAIN STUBBORN IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY SOUTH OF SALEM AND ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR NORTH OF ABOUT
KALAMA THROUGH THE LEWIS COUNTY LINE. EXPECT THAT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL TONIGHT...KEEPING FOG FROM
BEING AS DENSE AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WAS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO
REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY MORNING IN EASTERN SKAMANIA
COUNTY AND THE EAST SIDE OF MOUNT HOOD...AS THE EASTERLY GRADIENTS
APPEAR TO BE JAMMING PLENTY OF EASTSIDE COLD AIR INTO THESE AREAS. IN
THE PAST HOUR...BUCK CREEK RAWS NEAR TROUT LAKE WAS 29 DEGREES... AND
A COUPLE ELEVATED SITES NEAR THE GORGE WERE IN THE UPPER 20S.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ONSHORE
SUNDAY...SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND AN INCH OR SO.
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY HANG JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE HOOD RIVER
VALLEY...SO SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY THERE OR
ON THE WESTERN OR CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE FLOOR.

MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHARPER AND MORE DYNAMIC
COLD FRONT IN ON MONDAY. AFTER A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAIN EARLY
MONDAY...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY MIDDAY MONDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD FINALLY BREAK THROUGH VALLEY
INVERSIONS AND WARM UP THE LOWLANDS CONSIDERABLY...JUST IN TIME FOR A
SHARP COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE OF 400-800 J/KG JUST ABOVE
LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUNCHING IN IT APPEARS THE
NAM IS A BIT TOO STUBBORN WITH THE INVERSIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
THE DOOR MAY OPEN UP FOR SOME SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WITH THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DECENT DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITHIN THE UNSTABLE LAYER. THEREFORE WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON ACCORDINGLY...COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY
IF ALL COMES TOGETHER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MONDAY FRONT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE
SUNDAY SYSTEM...AND WILL PRODUCE SLIGHTLY GUSTIER WINDS. AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS WINDS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 45 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND
30 MPH FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS. HOWEVER A STRONG WESTERLY PUSH BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT GUSTY IN THE CASCADES AS WELL. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE HIGHER AS WELL...EXPECT 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH OF RAIN FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETWEEN
0.25-0.50 INCH FOR THE LOW LANDS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 5500 AND 6500 FEET MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY 6
TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR THE VERY HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WEAKENING
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY BRING A DUSTING OF SNOW TO THE CASCADE
PASSES OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH SPOTTY 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET.  WEAGLE/TJ

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS FORECASTING AN UPPER RIDGE TO RETURN OVER THE
PACIFIC NW AND THE ECMWF FORECASTING A WEAKER RIDGE FURTHER
OFFSHORE...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE REGION. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT BOTH OF THESE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THEIR
FORECASTS...WITH THE GFS RIDGE AND THE ECMWF TROUGH BEING TOO STRONG.
THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR NW OREGON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN WET WEATHER. THINK
THERE WILL BE A BIT OF BOTH AND EXPECT A WARM FRONT WILL BRING VERY
LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH DRYING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS PANS
OUT AS A LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF RAIN FORECAST.

THE MODELS ARE THEN IN SURPRISING AGREEMENT THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SWATH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A
SERIES OF ATMOSPHERIC WAVES SETS UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO  PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE FIRST WEATHER
SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK PAN OUT BEFORE EVEN TRYING
TO DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KEUG WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT TONIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT WORKS TOWARD THE REGION.
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT MOST AREAS.
OTHERWISE...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING WITH RAIN DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z AT THE COAST AND CLOSER TO
16Z FOR THE I-5 CENTRIC TERMINALS. THE FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE
COAST NEAR 20Z AND AROUND 23Z INLAND. EXPECT SHOWERS AFTER THE
FRONT BUT NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR EXCEPT
FOR KEUG WHERE THEY MAY REMAIN STUCK IFR BUT WITH IMPROVED
VISIBILITY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH
GUSTY EAST WINDS. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE NEAREST THE GORGE. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS FALLING FROM 100 TO
050 AROUND 16Z SUN ALONG WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. MAY SEE IFR CIGS
WORK SOUTH ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM THE KKLS AREA TOWARD KPDX
BUT EASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM THE GORGE SHOULD KEEP IT AS AN IFR
STRATUS DECK IF IT ARRIVES AT ALL. RAIN PICKS UP AROUND 16Z AND
CIGS FALL TO 025. EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS NEAR 23Z. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...MINIMAL CHANGES. HAVE AGREED THE WINDS ON SUNDAY ARE
VERY MARGINAL FOR JUSTIFYING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SO WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING ONE AT THIS TIME. BULK OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS. /JBONK

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEMS CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FIRST FRONT
ON SUNDAY BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS WHILE BRINGING SEAS UP TO AROUND 8 FT. THE
SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...BRINGING SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KTS LIKELY. STRONG
WINDS WILL RAMP UP EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY UNTIL WINDS EASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SEAS UP TO AROUND 12 TO 13 FT
ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING
SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT. /27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 010453
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ONSHORE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. MEANWHILE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE DRIVING BLUSTERY EAST WINDS NEAR THE WESTERN COLUMBIA GORGE. THE
CLOUDS AND WIND WILL PROBABLY KEEP FOG OUT OF MOST OF THE PORTLAND
METRO AREA TONIGHT...BUT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST SALEM
SOUTHWARD. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONGER FRONT
IS EXPECTED MONDAY...LIKELY BRINGING MORE RAIN AND SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS BOTH COAST AND INLAND...AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. COMPUTER MODELS DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
WILL BE DRY OR RAINY...BUT COME BACK INTO AGREEMENT THAT THE END OF
THE WEEK WILL BE WET. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO HIGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK FOR APPRECIABLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE CASCADE SNOWPACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EAST WINDS CONTINUE TO
RAMP UP THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE...WITH A RECENT GUST UP TO 64 MPH
IN CORBETT AND EARLIER GUSTS TO 75 MPH AT THE VISTA HOUSE ON CROWN
POINT. THE BRISK EAST WINDS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY -7.6 MB GRADIENTS
KTTD-KDLS. COLD POOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG EAST OF THE
CASCADES...WITH STRATUS REMAINING WIDESPREAD IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN.
MEANWHILE AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOWERING PRESSURE
OFFSHORE... RESULTING IN THE INCREASING GRADIENTS. AS USUAL THE 00Z
NAM UNDER- ANALYZES THE GRADIENT AND APPEARS TO WEAKEN THE EASTSIDE
HIGH TOO QUICKLY. THUS EXPECT A BRISK AND CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT FOR AT
LEAST THE EAST PDX/VUO METRO AND WEST GORGE...WITH FOG LIKELY HAVING
A HARD TIME FORMING NEARBY.

ELSEWHERE...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REMAIN STUBBORN IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY SOUTH OF SALEM AND ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR NORTH OF ABOUT
KALAMA THROUGH THE LEWIS COUNTY LINE. EXPECT THAT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL TONIGHT...KEEPING FOG FROM
BEING AS DENSE AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WAS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO
REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY MORNING IN EASTERN SKAMANIA
COUNTY AND THE EAST SIDE OF MOUNT HOOD...AS THE EASTERLY GRADIENTS
APPEAR TO BE JAMMING PLENTY OF EASTSIDE COLD AIR INTO THESE AREAS. IN
THE PAST HOUR...BUCK CREEK RAWS NEAR TROUT LAKE WAS 29 DEGREES... AND
A COUPLE ELEVATED SITES NEAR THE GORGE WERE IN THE UPPER 20S.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ONSHORE
SUNDAY...SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND AN INCH OR SO.
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY HANG JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE HOOD RIVER
VALLEY...SO SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY THERE OR
ON THE WESTERN OR CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE FLOOR.

MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHARPER AND MORE DYNAMIC
COLD FRONT IN ON MONDAY. AFTER A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAIN EARLY
MONDAY...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY MIDDAY MONDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD FINALLY BREAK THROUGH VALLEY
INVERSIONS AND WARM UP THE LOWLANDS CONSIDERABLY...JUST IN TIME FOR A
SHARP COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE OF 400-800 J/KG JUST ABOVE
LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUNCHING IN IT APPEARS THE
NAM IS A BIT TOO STUBBORN WITH THE INVERSIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
THE DOOR MAY OPEN UP FOR SOME SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WITH THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DECENT DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITHIN THE UNSTABLE LAYER. THEREFORE WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON ACCORDINGLY...COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY
IF ALL COMES TOGETHER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MONDAY FRONT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE
SUNDAY SYSTEM...AND WILL PRODUCE SLIGHTLY GUSTIER WINDS. AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS WINDS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 45 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND
30 MPH FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS. HOWEVER A STRONG WESTERLY PUSH BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT GUSTY IN THE CASCADES AS WELL. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE HIGHER AS WELL...EXPECT 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH OF RAIN FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETWEEN
0.25-0.50 INCH FOR THE LOW LANDS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 5500 AND 6500 FEET MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY 6
TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR THE VERY HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WEAKENING
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY BRING A DUSTING OF SNOW TO THE CASCADE
PASSES OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH SPOTTY 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET.  WEAGLE/TJ

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS FORECASTING AN UPPER RIDGE TO RETURN OVER THE
PACIFIC NW AND THE ECMWF FORECASTING A WEAKER RIDGE FURTHER
OFFSHORE...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE REGION. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT BOTH OF THESE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THEIR
FORECASTS...WITH THE GFS RIDGE AND THE ECMWF TROUGH BEING TOO STRONG.
THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR NW OREGON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN WET WEATHER. THINK
THERE WILL BE A BIT OF BOTH AND EXPECT A WARM FRONT WILL BRING VERY
LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH DRYING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS PANS
OUT AS A LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF RAIN FORECAST.

THE MODELS ARE THEN IN SURPRISING AGREEMENT THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SWATH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A
SERIES OF ATMOSPHERIC WAVES SETS UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO  PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE FIRST WEATHER
SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK PAN OUT BEFORE EVEN TRYING
TO DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KEUG WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT TONIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT WORKS TOWARD THE REGION.
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT MOST AREAS.
OTHERWISE...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING WITH RAIN DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z AT THE COAST AND CLOSER TO
16Z FOR THE I-5 CENTRIC TERMINALS. THE FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE
COAST NEAR 20Z AND AROUND 23Z INLAND. EXPECT SHOWERS AFTER THE
FRONT BUT NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR EXCEPT
FOR KEUG WHERE THEY MAY REMAIN STUCK IFR BUT WITH IMPROVED
VISIBILITY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH
GUSTY EAST WINDS. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE NEAREST THE GORGE. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS FALLING FROM 100 TO
050 AROUND 16Z SUN ALONG WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. MAY SEE IFR CIGS
WORK SOUTH ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM THE KKLS AREA TOWARD KPDX
BUT EASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM THE GORGE SHOULD KEEP IT AS AN IFR
STRATUS DECK IF IT ARRIVES AT ALL. RAIN PICKS UP AROUND 16Z AND
CIGS FALL TO 025. EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS NEAR 23Z. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...MINIMAL CHANGES. HAVE AGREED THE WINDS ON SUNDAY ARE
VERY MARGINAL FOR JUSTIFYING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SO WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING ONE AT THIS TIME. BULK OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS. /JBONK

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEMS CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FIRST FRONT
ON SUNDAY BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS WHILE BRINGING SEAS UP TO AROUND 8 FT. THE
SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...BRINGING SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KTS LIKELY. STRONG
WINDS WILL RAMP UP EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY UNTIL WINDS EASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SEAS UP TO AROUND 12 TO 13 FT
ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING
SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT. /27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 010453
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ONSHORE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. MEANWHILE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE DRIVING BLUSTERY EAST WINDS NEAR THE WESTERN COLUMBIA GORGE. THE
CLOUDS AND WIND WILL PROBABLY KEEP FOG OUT OF MOST OF THE PORTLAND
METRO AREA TONIGHT...BUT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST SALEM
SOUTHWARD. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONGER FRONT
IS EXPECTED MONDAY...LIKELY BRINGING MORE RAIN AND SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS BOTH COAST AND INLAND...AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. COMPUTER MODELS DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
WILL BE DRY OR RAINY...BUT COME BACK INTO AGREEMENT THAT THE END OF
THE WEEK WILL BE WET. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO HIGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK FOR APPRECIABLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE CASCADE SNOWPACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EAST WINDS CONTINUE TO
RAMP UP THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE...WITH A RECENT GUST UP TO 64 MPH
IN CORBETT AND EARLIER GUSTS TO 75 MPH AT THE VISTA HOUSE ON CROWN
POINT. THE BRISK EAST WINDS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY -7.6 MB GRADIENTS
KTTD-KDLS. COLD POOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG EAST OF THE
CASCADES...WITH STRATUS REMAINING WIDESPREAD IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN.
MEANWHILE AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOWERING PRESSURE
OFFSHORE... RESULTING IN THE INCREASING GRADIENTS. AS USUAL THE 00Z
NAM UNDER- ANALYZES THE GRADIENT AND APPEARS TO WEAKEN THE EASTSIDE
HIGH TOO QUICKLY. THUS EXPECT A BRISK AND CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT FOR AT
LEAST THE EAST PDX/VUO METRO AND WEST GORGE...WITH FOG LIKELY HAVING
A HARD TIME FORMING NEARBY.

ELSEWHERE...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REMAIN STUBBORN IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY SOUTH OF SALEM AND ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR NORTH OF ABOUT
KALAMA THROUGH THE LEWIS COUNTY LINE. EXPECT THAT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL TONIGHT...KEEPING FOG FROM
BEING AS DENSE AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WAS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO
REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY MORNING IN EASTERN SKAMANIA
COUNTY AND THE EAST SIDE OF MOUNT HOOD...AS THE EASTERLY GRADIENTS
APPEAR TO BE JAMMING PLENTY OF EASTSIDE COLD AIR INTO THESE AREAS. IN
THE PAST HOUR...BUCK CREEK RAWS NEAR TROUT LAKE WAS 29 DEGREES... AND
A COUPLE ELEVATED SITES NEAR THE GORGE WERE IN THE UPPER 20S.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ONSHORE
SUNDAY...SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND AN INCH OR SO.
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY HANG JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE HOOD RIVER
VALLEY...SO SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY THERE OR
ON THE WESTERN OR CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE FLOOR.

MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHARPER AND MORE DYNAMIC
COLD FRONT IN ON MONDAY. AFTER A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAIN EARLY
MONDAY...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY MIDDAY MONDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD FINALLY BREAK THROUGH VALLEY
INVERSIONS AND WARM UP THE LOWLANDS CONSIDERABLY...JUST IN TIME FOR A
SHARP COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE OF 400-800 J/KG JUST ABOVE
LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUNCHING IN IT APPEARS THE
NAM IS A BIT TOO STUBBORN WITH THE INVERSIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
THE DOOR MAY OPEN UP FOR SOME SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WITH THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DECENT DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITHIN THE UNSTABLE LAYER. THEREFORE WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON ACCORDINGLY...COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY
IF ALL COMES TOGETHER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MONDAY FRONT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE
SUNDAY SYSTEM...AND WILL PRODUCE SLIGHTLY GUSTIER WINDS. AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS WINDS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 45 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND
30 MPH FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS. HOWEVER A STRONG WESTERLY PUSH BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT GUSTY IN THE CASCADES AS WELL. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE HIGHER AS WELL...EXPECT 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH OF RAIN FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETWEEN
0.25-0.50 INCH FOR THE LOW LANDS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 5500 AND 6500 FEET MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY 6
TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR THE VERY HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WEAKENING
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY BRING A DUSTING OF SNOW TO THE CASCADE
PASSES OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH SPOTTY 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET.  WEAGLE/TJ

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS FORECASTING AN UPPER RIDGE TO RETURN OVER THE
PACIFIC NW AND THE ECMWF FORECASTING A WEAKER RIDGE FURTHER
OFFSHORE...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE REGION. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT BOTH OF THESE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THEIR
FORECASTS...WITH THE GFS RIDGE AND THE ECMWF TROUGH BEING TOO STRONG.
THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR NW OREGON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN WET WEATHER. THINK
THERE WILL BE A BIT OF BOTH AND EXPECT A WARM FRONT WILL BRING VERY
LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH DRYING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS PANS
OUT AS A LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF RAIN FORECAST.

THE MODELS ARE THEN IN SURPRISING AGREEMENT THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SWATH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A
SERIES OF ATMOSPHERIC WAVES SETS UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO  PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE FIRST WEATHER
SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK PAN OUT BEFORE EVEN TRYING
TO DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KEUG WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT TONIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT WORKS TOWARD THE REGION.
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT MOST AREAS.
OTHERWISE...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING WITH RAIN DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z AT THE COAST AND CLOSER TO
16Z FOR THE I-5 CENTRIC TERMINALS. THE FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE
COAST NEAR 20Z AND AROUND 23Z INLAND. EXPECT SHOWERS AFTER THE
FRONT BUT NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR EXCEPT
FOR KEUG WHERE THEY MAY REMAIN STUCK IFR BUT WITH IMPROVED
VISIBILITY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH
GUSTY EAST WINDS. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE NEAREST THE GORGE. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS FALLING FROM 100 TO
050 AROUND 16Z SUN ALONG WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. MAY SEE IFR CIGS
WORK SOUTH ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM THE KKLS AREA TOWARD KPDX
BUT EASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM THE GORGE SHOULD KEEP IT AS AN IFR
STRATUS DECK IF IT ARRIVES AT ALL. RAIN PICKS UP AROUND 16Z AND
CIGS FALL TO 025. EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS NEAR 23Z. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...MINIMAL CHANGES. HAVE AGREED THE WINDS ON SUNDAY ARE
VERY MARGINAL FOR JUSTIFYING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SO WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING ONE AT THIS TIME. BULK OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS. /JBONK

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEMS CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FIRST FRONT
ON SUNDAY BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS WHILE BRINGING SEAS UP TO AROUND 8 FT. THE
SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...BRINGING SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KTS LIKELY. STRONG
WINDS WILL RAMP UP EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY UNTIL WINDS EASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SEAS UP TO AROUND 12 TO 13 FT
ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING
SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT. /27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 010421
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
821 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...RADAR INDICATES LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST KITTITAS
COUNTY BUT PASS REPORTS...OBSERVATIONS...AND WEB CAMS DO NOT SHOW
IT REACHING THE GROUND YET. SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
ARE MOVING INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN OREGON. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST WET
BULB ZERO OF 2200 AND CURRENT TEMPERATURE 33 NEAR CLE ELUM WOULD
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS SNOW NEAR THE CASCADES.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG PERSIST OVER AREAS BELOW 3500
FT. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THESE TRENDS. COONFIELD

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 246 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE REGION WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. THUS EXPECT THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSIONS TO REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG GENERALLY BELOW 3500-4000 FT MSL. THERE
MAY SOME LOCAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. AM UNSURE EXACTLY WHICH
LOCATIONS WILL SEE DENSE FOG, THUS WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT
THIS TIME. A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START BETWEEN 2000 AND 4000 FT MSL SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000 FT MSL BY AFTERNOON. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT ABOVE THESE LEVELS. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS LEADING TO
THE BREAK UP OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE AREA. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, SUNDAY NIGHT
DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. A STRONGER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE WETTER THAN
THE SYSTEM SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS MONDAY WILL BE HIGHER, RUNNING FROM
4500 TO 6500 FT MSL. THUS SNOW WILL LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
RIDGES. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WELL
MIXED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONALLY MILD. 90

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS
WA/OR INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE TWO STATE AREA. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALSO TIGHTEN AND BREEZY
SURFACE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE LIKELY
WITH LCL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAFS SITES ESPECIALLY AT KPDT
AND KALW. ELSEWHERE LCL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH TAF
SITES KRDM AND KBDN MAY EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO THIS
EVENING. AFT 04Z ALL TAF SITES COULD EXPERIENCE AREAS OF MVFR AND
LCL IFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY AND MORE SO AFTER 15Z TOMORROW IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  32  40  36  51 /  10  60  40  60
ALW  34  41  39  52 /  10  60  40  70
PSC  34  42  35  51 /  10  50  30  60
YKM  32  39  33  46 /  10  30  20  50
HRI  34  42  36  52 /  10  50  30  60
ELN  31  40  32  45 /  10  30  20  60
RDM  28  51  37  57 /   0  30  30  60
LGD  24  43  34  48 /   0  50  50  70
GCD  29  46  35  52 /  10  30  40  60
DLS  37  46  38  52 /  10  40  30  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76






000
FXUS66 KPDT 010421
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
821 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...RADAR INDICATES LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST KITTITAS
COUNTY BUT PASS REPORTS...OBSERVATIONS...AND WEB CAMS DO NOT SHOW
IT REACHING THE GROUND YET. SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
ARE MOVING INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN OREGON. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST WET
BULB ZERO OF 2200 AND CURRENT TEMPERATURE 33 NEAR CLE ELUM WOULD
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS SNOW NEAR THE CASCADES.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG PERSIST OVER AREAS BELOW 3500
FT. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THESE TRENDS. COONFIELD

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 246 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE REGION WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. THUS EXPECT THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSIONS TO REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG GENERALLY BELOW 3500-4000 FT MSL. THERE
MAY SOME LOCAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. AM UNSURE EXACTLY WHICH
LOCATIONS WILL SEE DENSE FOG, THUS WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT
THIS TIME. A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START BETWEEN 2000 AND 4000 FT MSL SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000 FT MSL BY AFTERNOON. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT ABOVE THESE LEVELS. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS LEADING TO
THE BREAK UP OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE AREA. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, SUNDAY NIGHT
DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. A STRONGER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE WETTER THAN
THE SYSTEM SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS MONDAY WILL BE HIGHER, RUNNING FROM
4500 TO 6500 FT MSL. THUS SNOW WILL LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
RIDGES. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WELL
MIXED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONALLY MILD. 90

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS
WA/OR INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE TWO STATE AREA. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALSO TIGHTEN AND BREEZY
SURFACE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE LIKELY
WITH LCL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAFS SITES ESPECIALLY AT KPDT
AND KALW. ELSEWHERE LCL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH TAF
SITES KRDM AND KBDN MAY EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO THIS
EVENING. AFT 04Z ALL TAF SITES COULD EXPERIENCE AREAS OF MVFR AND
LCL IFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY AND MORE SO AFTER 15Z TOMORROW IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  32  40  36  51 /  10  60  40  60
ALW  34  41  39  52 /  10  60  40  70
PSC  34  42  35  51 /  10  50  30  60
YKM  32  39  33  46 /  10  30  20  50
HRI  34  42  36  52 /  10  50  30  60
ELN  31  40  32  45 /  10  30  20  60
RDM  28  51  37  57 /   0  30  30  60
LGD  24  43  34  48 /   0  50  50  70
GCD  29  46  35  52 /  10  30  40  60
DLS  37  46  38  52 /  10  40  30  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76






000
FXUS66 KPDT 010421
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
821 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...RADAR INDICATES LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST KITTITAS
COUNTY BUT PASS REPORTS...OBSERVATIONS...AND WEB CAMS DO NOT SHOW
IT REACHING THE GROUND YET. SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
ARE MOVING INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN OREGON. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST WET
BULB ZERO OF 2200 AND CURRENT TEMPERATURE 33 NEAR CLE ELUM WOULD
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS SNOW NEAR THE CASCADES.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG PERSIST OVER AREAS BELOW 3500
FT. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THESE TRENDS. COONFIELD

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 246 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE REGION WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. THUS EXPECT THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSIONS TO REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG GENERALLY BELOW 3500-4000 FT MSL. THERE
MAY SOME LOCAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. AM UNSURE EXACTLY WHICH
LOCATIONS WILL SEE DENSE FOG, THUS WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT
THIS TIME. A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START BETWEEN 2000 AND 4000 FT MSL SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000 FT MSL BY AFTERNOON. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT ABOVE THESE LEVELS. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS LEADING TO
THE BREAK UP OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE AREA. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, SUNDAY NIGHT
DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. A STRONGER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE WETTER THAN
THE SYSTEM SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS MONDAY WILL BE HIGHER, RUNNING FROM
4500 TO 6500 FT MSL. THUS SNOW WILL LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
RIDGES. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WELL
MIXED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONALLY MILD. 90

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS
WA/OR INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE TWO STATE AREA. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALSO TIGHTEN AND BREEZY
SURFACE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE LIKELY
WITH LCL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAFS SITES ESPECIALLY AT KPDT
AND KALW. ELSEWHERE LCL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH TAF
SITES KRDM AND KBDN MAY EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO THIS
EVENING. AFT 04Z ALL TAF SITES COULD EXPERIENCE AREAS OF MVFR AND
LCL IFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY AND MORE SO AFTER 15Z TOMORROW IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  32  40  36  51 /  10  60  40  60
ALW  34  41  39  52 /  10  60  40  70
PSC  34  42  35  51 /  10  50  30  60
YKM  32  39  33  46 /  10  30  20  50
HRI  34  42  36  52 /  10  50  30  60
ELN  31  40  32  45 /  10  30  20  60
RDM  28  51  37  57 /   0  30  30  60
LGD  24  43  34  48 /   0  50  50  70
GCD  29  46  35  52 /  10  30  40  60
DLS  37  46  38  52 /  10  40  30  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76






000
FXUS66 KPDT 010421
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
821 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...RADAR INDICATES LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST KITTITAS
COUNTY BUT PASS REPORTS...OBSERVATIONS...AND WEB CAMS DO NOT SHOW
IT REACHING THE GROUND YET. SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
ARE MOVING INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN OREGON. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST WET
BULB ZERO OF 2200 AND CURRENT TEMPERATURE 33 NEAR CLE ELUM WOULD
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS SNOW NEAR THE CASCADES.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG PERSIST OVER AREAS BELOW 3500
FT. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THESE TRENDS. COONFIELD

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 246 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE REGION WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. THUS EXPECT THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSIONS TO REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG GENERALLY BELOW 3500-4000 FT MSL. THERE
MAY SOME LOCAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. AM UNSURE EXACTLY WHICH
LOCATIONS WILL SEE DENSE FOG, THUS WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT
THIS TIME. A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START BETWEEN 2000 AND 4000 FT MSL SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000 FT MSL BY AFTERNOON. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT ABOVE THESE LEVELS. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS LEADING TO
THE BREAK UP OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE AREA. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, SUNDAY NIGHT
DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. A STRONGER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE WETTER THAN
THE SYSTEM SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS MONDAY WILL BE HIGHER, RUNNING FROM
4500 TO 6500 FT MSL. THUS SNOW WILL LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
RIDGES. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WELL
MIXED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONALLY MILD. 90

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS
WA/OR INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE TWO STATE AREA. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALSO TIGHTEN AND BREEZY
SURFACE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE LIKELY
WITH LCL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAFS SITES ESPECIALLY AT KPDT
AND KALW. ELSEWHERE LCL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH TAF
SITES KRDM AND KBDN MAY EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO THIS
EVENING. AFT 04Z ALL TAF SITES COULD EXPERIENCE AREAS OF MVFR AND
LCL IFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY AND MORE SO AFTER 15Z TOMORROW IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  32  40  36  51 /  10  60  40  60
ALW  34  41  39  52 /  10  60  40  70
PSC  34  42  35  51 /  10  50  30  60
YKM  32  39  33  46 /  10  30  20  50
HRI  34  42  36  52 /  10  50  30  60
ELN  31  40  32  45 /  10  30  20  60
RDM  28  51  37  57 /   0  30  30  60
LGD  24  43  34  48 /   0  50  50  70
GCD  29  46  35  52 /  10  30  40  60
DLS  37  46  38  52 /  10  40  30  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76






000
FXUS66 KPDT 010421
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
821 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...RADAR INDICATES LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST KITTITAS
COUNTY BUT PASS REPORTS...OBSERVATIONS...AND WEB CAMS DO NOT SHOW
IT REACHING THE GROUND YET. SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
ARE MOVING INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN OREGON. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST WET
BULB ZERO OF 2200 AND CURRENT TEMPERATURE 33 NEAR CLE ELUM WOULD
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS SNOW NEAR THE CASCADES.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG PERSIST OVER AREAS BELOW 3500
FT. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THESE TRENDS. COONFIELD

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 246 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE REGION WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. THUS EXPECT THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSIONS TO REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG GENERALLY BELOW 3500-4000 FT MSL. THERE
MAY SOME LOCAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. AM UNSURE EXACTLY WHICH
LOCATIONS WILL SEE DENSE FOG, THUS WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT
THIS TIME. A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START BETWEEN 2000 AND 4000 FT MSL SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000 FT MSL BY AFTERNOON. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT ABOVE THESE LEVELS. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS LEADING TO
THE BREAK UP OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE AREA. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, SUNDAY NIGHT
DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. A STRONGER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE WETTER THAN
THE SYSTEM SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS MONDAY WILL BE HIGHER, RUNNING FROM
4500 TO 6500 FT MSL. THUS SNOW WILL LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
RIDGES. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WELL
MIXED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONALLY MILD. 90

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS
WA/OR INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE TWO STATE AREA. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALSO TIGHTEN AND BREEZY
SURFACE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE LIKELY
WITH LCL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAFS SITES ESPECIALLY AT KPDT
AND KALW. ELSEWHERE LCL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH TAF
SITES KRDM AND KBDN MAY EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO THIS
EVENING. AFT 04Z ALL TAF SITES COULD EXPERIENCE AREAS OF MVFR AND
LCL IFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY AND MORE SO AFTER 15Z TOMORROW IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  32  40  36  51 /  10  60  40  60
ALW  34  41  39  52 /  10  60  40  70
PSC  34  42  35  51 /  10  50  30  60
YKM  32  39  33  46 /  10  30  20  50
HRI  34  42  36  52 /  10  50  30  60
ELN  31  40  32  45 /  10  30  20  60
RDM  28  51  37  57 /   0  30  30  60
LGD  24  43  34  48 /   0  50  50  70
GCD  29  46  35  52 /  10  30  40  60
DLS  37  46  38  52 /  10  40  30  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76





000
FXUS66 KPDT 010421
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
821 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...RADAR INDICATES LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST KITTITAS
COUNTY BUT PASS REPORTS...OBSERVATIONS...AND WEB CAMS DO NOT SHOW
IT REACHING THE GROUND YET. SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
ARE MOVING INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN OREGON. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST WET
BULB ZERO OF 2200 AND CURRENT TEMPERATURE 33 NEAR CLE ELUM WOULD
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS SNOW NEAR THE CASCADES.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG PERSIST OVER AREAS BELOW 3500
FT. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THESE TRENDS. COONFIELD

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 246 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE REGION WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. THUS EXPECT THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSIONS TO REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG GENERALLY BELOW 3500-4000 FT MSL. THERE
MAY SOME LOCAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. AM UNSURE EXACTLY WHICH
LOCATIONS WILL SEE DENSE FOG, THUS WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT
THIS TIME. A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START BETWEEN 2000 AND 4000 FT MSL SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000 FT MSL BY AFTERNOON. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT ABOVE THESE LEVELS. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS LEADING TO
THE BREAK UP OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE AREA. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, SUNDAY NIGHT
DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. A STRONGER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE WETTER THAN
THE SYSTEM SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS MONDAY WILL BE HIGHER, RUNNING FROM
4500 TO 6500 FT MSL. THUS SNOW WILL LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
RIDGES. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WELL
MIXED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONALLY MILD. 90

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS
WA/OR INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE TWO STATE AREA. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALSO TIGHTEN AND BREEZY
SURFACE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE LIKELY
WITH LCL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAFS SITES ESPECIALLY AT KPDT
AND KALW. ELSEWHERE LCL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH TAF
SITES KRDM AND KBDN MAY EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO THIS
EVENING. AFT 04Z ALL TAF SITES COULD EXPERIENCE AREAS OF MVFR AND
LCL IFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY AND MORE SO AFTER 15Z TOMORROW IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  32  40  36  51 /  10  60  40  60
ALW  34  41  39  52 /  10  60  40  70
PSC  34  42  35  51 /  10  50  30  60
YKM  32  39  33  46 /  10  30  20  50
HRI  34  42  36  52 /  10  50  30  60
ELN  31  40  32  45 /  10  30  20  60
RDM  28  51  37  57 /   0  30  30  60
LGD  24  43  34  48 /   0  50  50  70
GCD  29  46  35  52 /  10  30  40  60
DLS  37  46  38  52 /  10  40  30  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76






000
FXUS65 KBOI 010325
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
825 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE HAVE PUSHED
INTO SE OREGON AND ARE INCREASING ACROSS SW IDAHO. IR SATELLITE
PICS ALSO SHOWING STRATUS DECK OVER THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY
RETREATING EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO BE
TEMPORARY OVER GOODING AND JEROME COUNTIES AS THE CLOUD SHIELD
BUILDS BACK OVERNIGHT. THE SW DRAINAGE WINDS IN TWIN FALLS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR. ELSEWHERE HIGH CLOUDS ARE RELATIVELY
THIN BUT ENOUGH TO SLOW REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT. AREAS
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FOG REDEVELOPMENT ARE THE HARNEY
VALLEY...WEISER VALLEY AND MTN VALLEYS IN THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS.
MADE MINOR UPDATES FOR FOG AND SKY COVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MVFR/IFR
VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG. SNOW...WITH RAIN BELOW 4500 FT MSL...WILL
SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH AS FAR AS KBNO AND KBKE BY 18Z...AND THE
NEVADA BORDER BY 00Z. VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR...BUT EXPECT
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR
LESS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST UP TO 25 KT AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...FIRST TROUGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL COME INLAND
BEGINNING SUNDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EVER-PRESENT
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA.  PCPN WILL BEGIN IN OUR
NRN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BULK OF IT SUNDAY EVENING IN
IDAHO ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  AFTER A SHORT BREAK MONDAY
MORNING A WETTER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING MORE PCPN MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO ALL ZONES.  TEMPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL CHANGE
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AND
MONDAY A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN.  POPS WILL BE CLOSE
TO MET MOS...AS MAV MOS CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY BIAS.  PATCHY FOG
AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EXITING SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS ACROSS SW IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE MOISTURE TOP
OUT OF THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR BOTH RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE LONG VALLEY AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE. DRIER THURSDAY WITH A PACIFIC RIDGE OVER THE AREA. RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT WET CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JDS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 010325
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
825 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE HAVE PUSHED
INTO SE OREGON AND ARE INCREASING ACROSS SW IDAHO. IR SATELLITE
PICS ALSO SHOWING STRATUS DECK OVER THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY
RETREATING EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO BE
TEMPORARY OVER GOODING AND JEROME COUNTIES AS THE CLOUD SHIELD
BUILDS BACK OVERNIGHT. THE SW DRAINAGE WINDS IN TWIN FALLS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR. ELSEWHERE HIGH CLOUDS ARE RELATIVELY
THIN BUT ENOUGH TO SLOW REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT. AREAS
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FOG REDEVELOPMENT ARE THE HARNEY
VALLEY...WEISER VALLEY AND MTN VALLEYS IN THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS.
MADE MINOR UPDATES FOR FOG AND SKY COVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MVFR/IFR
VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG. SNOW...WITH RAIN BELOW 4500 FT MSL...WILL
SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH AS FAR AS KBNO AND KBKE BY 18Z...AND THE
NEVADA BORDER BY 00Z. VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR...BUT EXPECT
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR
LESS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST UP TO 25 KT AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...FIRST TROUGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL COME INLAND
BEGINNING SUNDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EVER-PRESENT
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA.  PCPN WILL BEGIN IN OUR
NRN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BULK OF IT SUNDAY EVENING IN
IDAHO ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  AFTER A SHORT BREAK MONDAY
MORNING A WETTER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING MORE PCPN MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO ALL ZONES.  TEMPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL CHANGE
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AND
MONDAY A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN.  POPS WILL BE CLOSE
TO MET MOS...AS MAV MOS CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY BIAS.  PATCHY FOG
AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EXITING SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS ACROSS SW IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE MOISTURE TOP
OUT OF THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR BOTH RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE LONG VALLEY AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE. DRIER THURSDAY WITH A PACIFIC RIDGE OVER THE AREA. RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT WET CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JDS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 010325
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
825 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE HAVE PUSHED
INTO SE OREGON AND ARE INCREASING ACROSS SW IDAHO. IR SATELLITE
PICS ALSO SHOWING STRATUS DECK OVER THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY
RETREATING EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO BE
TEMPORARY OVER GOODING AND JEROME COUNTIES AS THE CLOUD SHIELD
BUILDS BACK OVERNIGHT. THE SW DRAINAGE WINDS IN TWIN FALLS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR. ELSEWHERE HIGH CLOUDS ARE RELATIVELY
THIN BUT ENOUGH TO SLOW REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT. AREAS
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FOG REDEVELOPMENT ARE THE HARNEY
VALLEY...WEISER VALLEY AND MTN VALLEYS IN THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS.
MADE MINOR UPDATES FOR FOG AND SKY COVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MVFR/IFR
VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG. SNOW...WITH RAIN BELOW 4500 FT MSL...WILL
SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH AS FAR AS KBNO AND KBKE BY 18Z...AND THE
NEVADA BORDER BY 00Z. VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR...BUT EXPECT
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR
LESS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST UP TO 25 KT AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...FIRST TROUGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL COME INLAND
BEGINNING SUNDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EVER-PRESENT
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA.  PCPN WILL BEGIN IN OUR
NRN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BULK OF IT SUNDAY EVENING IN
IDAHO ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  AFTER A SHORT BREAK MONDAY
MORNING A WETTER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING MORE PCPN MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO ALL ZONES.  TEMPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL CHANGE
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AND
MONDAY A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN.  POPS WILL BE CLOSE
TO MET MOS...AS MAV MOS CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY BIAS.  PATCHY FOG
AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EXITING SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS ACROSS SW IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE MOISTURE TOP
OUT OF THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR BOTH RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE LONG VALLEY AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE. DRIER THURSDAY WITH A PACIFIC RIDGE OVER THE AREA. RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT WET CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JDS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 010325
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
825 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE HAVE PUSHED
INTO SE OREGON AND ARE INCREASING ACROSS SW IDAHO. IR SATELLITE
PICS ALSO SHOWING STRATUS DECK OVER THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY
RETREATING EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO BE
TEMPORARY OVER GOODING AND JEROME COUNTIES AS THE CLOUD SHIELD
BUILDS BACK OVERNIGHT. THE SW DRAINAGE WINDS IN TWIN FALLS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR. ELSEWHERE HIGH CLOUDS ARE RELATIVELY
THIN BUT ENOUGH TO SLOW REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT. AREAS
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FOG REDEVELOPMENT ARE THE HARNEY
VALLEY...WEISER VALLEY AND MTN VALLEYS IN THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS.
MADE MINOR UPDATES FOR FOG AND SKY COVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MVFR/IFR
VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG. SNOW...WITH RAIN BELOW 4500 FT MSL...WILL
SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH AS FAR AS KBNO AND KBKE BY 18Z...AND THE
NEVADA BORDER BY 00Z. VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR...BUT EXPECT
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR
LESS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST UP TO 25 KT AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...FIRST TROUGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL COME INLAND
BEGINNING SUNDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EVER-PRESENT
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA.  PCPN WILL BEGIN IN OUR
NRN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BULK OF IT SUNDAY EVENING IN
IDAHO ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  AFTER A SHORT BREAK MONDAY
MORNING A WETTER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING MORE PCPN MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO ALL ZONES.  TEMPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL CHANGE
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AND
MONDAY A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN.  POPS WILL BE CLOSE
TO MET MOS...AS MAV MOS CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY BIAS.  PATCHY FOG
AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EXITING SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS ACROSS SW IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE MOISTURE TOP
OUT OF THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR BOTH RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE LONG VALLEY AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE. DRIER THURSDAY WITH A PACIFIC RIDGE OVER THE AREA. RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT WET CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JDS



000
FXUS66 KMFR 312353
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
353 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED MARINE AND AVIATION SECTIONS

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO LINGER NEAR GRANTS PASS, BUT IT`S SLOWLY ERODING AND EXPECT IT
TO CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH A
FEW SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER, MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND IT`S POSSIBLE THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO DELAY THE ONSET
OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR AT LEAST THE DURATION WILL NOT
BE AS LONG.

OUR FIRST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN QUITE SOME TIME IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH THE HIGHEST
QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE HIGH, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN.

THE MODELS SHOW WEAK RIDGING SUNDAY EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT IN
A TEMPORARY BREAK IN RAINFALL, THEN ANOTHER AND STRONGER FRONT
ARRIVES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL BRING MORE RAINFALL TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AND MOST
WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.

THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NEAR THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA
BORDER WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA. THE EC HAS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION IN COOS...NORTHERN CURRY AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. FOR NOW
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION, BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AND ADJUST IF THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
CONSENSUS.

THE EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
(GFS FURTHER SOUTH, EC NORTH) TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH SHOW
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH LENDS ME TO BELIEVE THAT
WE`LL HAVE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.
-PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR IN OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW
LEVELS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL CHARACTER OF THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY AND ITS EVOLUTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES ARE
SIGNIFICANT THOUGH TYPICAL FOR DAYS 4 TO 7 IN AN ACTIVE WINTER
PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
THEN LIKELY SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA. THIS MOVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH
THE APPROACH OF A DEEP TROUGH. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN FAR
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY RESULT IN A VERY WET AND
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND BUILD NORTHWARD WHILE THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL STILL BE NEAR OR IN OUR AREA AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES NORTH. AS A RESULT, THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
LOWERED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE BLANCO ALONG THE UMPQUA DIVIDE TO
CHILOQUIN AND VALLEY FALLS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IF
THE STATIONARY FRONT DOES REMAIN IN OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE TO IDAHO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD
FRONT REACHING THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING THEN WEAKENING OVER THE
WEST SIDE DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND
7500 FT MSL ON THURSDAY WITH WEST SIDE POPS IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY
CATEGORY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ON THE EAST SIDE.

A SERIES OF STRONGER FRONTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
REMAINING ABOVE 7000 FT MSL. AT THIS TIME, FOUR DISTINCT FRONTS ARE
INDICATED. THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE FAST MOVING BUT MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. /DW

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 01/00Z TAF CYCLE... WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO COUPLED
WITH INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MEAN THAT ONLY MVFR VIS
WITH LOCAL IFR CIG/VIS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND NEAR GRANTS PASS, WHERE
IFR AND LOCAL LIFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED. AN INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME WEST SIDE MVFR THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY, MAINLY COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PARTIAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS CASCADES WEST. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 215 PM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2015... LIGHT
NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT ALONG AND NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THEY WILL BE MORE VARIABLE AND GENERALLY
ONSHORE. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY
AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL BUILD AS
A SOMEWHAT STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MID-
WEEK WILL BUILD TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WITH GALES...AND EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE...ON OR ABOUT FRIDAY. BTL

&&

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

MAP/DW/BTL



000
FXUS66 KMFR 312353
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
353 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED MARINE AND AVIATION SECTIONS

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO LINGER NEAR GRANTS PASS, BUT IT`S SLOWLY ERODING AND EXPECT IT
TO CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH A
FEW SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER, MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND IT`S POSSIBLE THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO DELAY THE ONSET
OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR AT LEAST THE DURATION WILL NOT
BE AS LONG.

OUR FIRST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN QUITE SOME TIME IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH THE HIGHEST
QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE HIGH, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN.

THE MODELS SHOW WEAK RIDGING SUNDAY EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT IN
A TEMPORARY BREAK IN RAINFALL, THEN ANOTHER AND STRONGER FRONT
ARRIVES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL BRING MORE RAINFALL TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AND MOST
WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.

THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NEAR THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA
BORDER WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA. THE EC HAS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION IN COOS...NORTHERN CURRY AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. FOR NOW
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION, BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AND ADJUST IF THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
CONSENSUS.

THE EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
(GFS FURTHER SOUTH, EC NORTH) TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH SHOW
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH LENDS ME TO BELIEVE THAT
WE`LL HAVE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.
-PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR IN OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW
LEVELS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL CHARACTER OF THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY AND ITS EVOLUTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES ARE
SIGNIFICANT THOUGH TYPICAL FOR DAYS 4 TO 7 IN AN ACTIVE WINTER
PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
THEN LIKELY SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA. THIS MOVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH
THE APPROACH OF A DEEP TROUGH. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN FAR
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY RESULT IN A VERY WET AND
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND BUILD NORTHWARD WHILE THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL STILL BE NEAR OR IN OUR AREA AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES NORTH. AS A RESULT, THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
LOWERED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE BLANCO ALONG THE UMPQUA DIVIDE TO
CHILOQUIN AND VALLEY FALLS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IF
THE STATIONARY FRONT DOES REMAIN IN OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE TO IDAHO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD
FRONT REACHING THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING THEN WEAKENING OVER THE
WEST SIDE DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND
7500 FT MSL ON THURSDAY WITH WEST SIDE POPS IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY
CATEGORY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ON THE EAST SIDE.

A SERIES OF STRONGER FRONTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
REMAINING ABOVE 7000 FT MSL. AT THIS TIME, FOUR DISTINCT FRONTS ARE
INDICATED. THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE FAST MOVING BUT MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. /DW

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 01/00Z TAF CYCLE... WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO COUPLED
WITH INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MEAN THAT ONLY MVFR VIS
WITH LOCAL IFR CIG/VIS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND NEAR GRANTS PASS, WHERE
IFR AND LOCAL LIFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED. AN INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME WEST SIDE MVFR THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY, MAINLY COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PARTIAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS CASCADES WEST. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 215 PM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2015... LIGHT
NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT ALONG AND NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THEY WILL BE MORE VARIABLE AND GENERALLY
ONSHORE. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY
AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL BUILD AS
A SOMEWHAT STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MID-
WEEK WILL BUILD TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WITH GALES...AND EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE...ON OR ABOUT FRIDAY. BTL

&&

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

MAP/DW/BTL



000
FXUS66 KMFR 312353
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
353 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED MARINE AND AVIATION SECTIONS

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO LINGER NEAR GRANTS PASS, BUT IT`S SLOWLY ERODING AND EXPECT IT
TO CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH A
FEW SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER, MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND IT`S POSSIBLE THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO DELAY THE ONSET
OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR AT LEAST THE DURATION WILL NOT
BE AS LONG.

OUR FIRST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN QUITE SOME TIME IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH THE HIGHEST
QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE HIGH, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN.

THE MODELS SHOW WEAK RIDGING SUNDAY EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT IN
A TEMPORARY BREAK IN RAINFALL, THEN ANOTHER AND STRONGER FRONT
ARRIVES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL BRING MORE RAINFALL TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AND MOST
WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.

THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NEAR THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA
BORDER WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA. THE EC HAS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION IN COOS...NORTHERN CURRY AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. FOR NOW
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION, BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AND ADJUST IF THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
CONSENSUS.

THE EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
(GFS FURTHER SOUTH, EC NORTH) TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH SHOW
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH LENDS ME TO BELIEVE THAT
WE`LL HAVE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.
-PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR IN OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW
LEVELS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL CHARACTER OF THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY AND ITS EVOLUTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES ARE
SIGNIFICANT THOUGH TYPICAL FOR DAYS 4 TO 7 IN AN ACTIVE WINTER
PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
THEN LIKELY SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA. THIS MOVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH
THE APPROACH OF A DEEP TROUGH. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN FAR
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY RESULT IN A VERY WET AND
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND BUILD NORTHWARD WHILE THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL STILL BE NEAR OR IN OUR AREA AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES NORTH. AS A RESULT, THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
LOWERED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE BLANCO ALONG THE UMPQUA DIVIDE TO
CHILOQUIN AND VALLEY FALLS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IF
THE STATIONARY FRONT DOES REMAIN IN OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE TO IDAHO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD
FRONT REACHING THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING THEN WEAKENING OVER THE
WEST SIDE DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND
7500 FT MSL ON THURSDAY WITH WEST SIDE POPS IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY
CATEGORY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ON THE EAST SIDE.

A SERIES OF STRONGER FRONTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
REMAINING ABOVE 7000 FT MSL. AT THIS TIME, FOUR DISTINCT FRONTS ARE
INDICATED. THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE FAST MOVING BUT MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. /DW

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 01/00Z TAF CYCLE... WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO COUPLED
WITH INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MEAN THAT ONLY MVFR VIS
WITH LOCAL IFR CIG/VIS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND NEAR GRANTS PASS, WHERE
IFR AND LOCAL LIFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED. AN INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME WEST SIDE MVFR THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY, MAINLY COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PARTIAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS CASCADES WEST. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 215 PM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2015... LIGHT
NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT ALONG AND NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THEY WILL BE MORE VARIABLE AND GENERALLY
ONSHORE. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY
AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL BUILD AS
A SOMEWHAT STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MID-
WEEK WILL BUILD TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WITH GALES...AND EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE...ON OR ABOUT FRIDAY. BTL

&&

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

MAP/DW/BTL



000
FXUS66 KMFR 312353
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
353 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED MARINE AND AVIATION SECTIONS

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO LINGER NEAR GRANTS PASS, BUT IT`S SLOWLY ERODING AND EXPECT IT
TO CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH A
FEW SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER, MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND IT`S POSSIBLE THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO DELAY THE ONSET
OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR AT LEAST THE DURATION WILL NOT
BE AS LONG.

OUR FIRST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN QUITE SOME TIME IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH THE HIGHEST
QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE HIGH, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN.

THE MODELS SHOW WEAK RIDGING SUNDAY EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT IN
A TEMPORARY BREAK IN RAINFALL, THEN ANOTHER AND STRONGER FRONT
ARRIVES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL BRING MORE RAINFALL TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AND MOST
WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.

THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NEAR THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA
BORDER WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA. THE EC HAS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION IN COOS...NORTHERN CURRY AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. FOR NOW
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION, BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AND ADJUST IF THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
CONSENSUS.

THE EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
(GFS FURTHER SOUTH, EC NORTH) TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH SHOW
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH LENDS ME TO BELIEVE THAT
WE`LL HAVE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.
-PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR IN OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW
LEVELS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL CHARACTER OF THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY AND ITS EVOLUTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES ARE
SIGNIFICANT THOUGH TYPICAL FOR DAYS 4 TO 7 IN AN ACTIVE WINTER
PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
THEN LIKELY SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA. THIS MOVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH
THE APPROACH OF A DEEP TROUGH. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN FAR
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY RESULT IN A VERY WET AND
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND BUILD NORTHWARD WHILE THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL STILL BE NEAR OR IN OUR AREA AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES NORTH. AS A RESULT, THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
LOWERED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE BLANCO ALONG THE UMPQUA DIVIDE TO
CHILOQUIN AND VALLEY FALLS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IF
THE STATIONARY FRONT DOES REMAIN IN OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE TO IDAHO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD
FRONT REACHING THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING THEN WEAKENING OVER THE
WEST SIDE DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND
7500 FT MSL ON THURSDAY WITH WEST SIDE POPS IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY
CATEGORY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ON THE EAST SIDE.

A SERIES OF STRONGER FRONTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
REMAINING ABOVE 7000 FT MSL. AT THIS TIME, FOUR DISTINCT FRONTS ARE
INDICATED. THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE FAST MOVING BUT MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. /DW

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 01/00Z TAF CYCLE... WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO COUPLED
WITH INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MEAN THAT ONLY MVFR VIS
WITH LOCAL IFR CIG/VIS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND NEAR GRANTS PASS, WHERE
IFR AND LOCAL LIFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED. AN INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME WEST SIDE MVFR THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY, MAINLY COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PARTIAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS CASCADES WEST. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 215 PM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2015... LIGHT
NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT ALONG AND NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THEY WILL BE MORE VARIABLE AND GENERALLY
ONSHORE. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY
AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL BUILD AS
A SOMEWHAT STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MID-
WEEK WILL BUILD TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WITH GALES...AND EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE...ON OR ABOUT FRIDAY. BTL

&&

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

MAP/DW/BTL



000
FXUS66 KMFR 312248
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
248 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO LINGER NEAR GRANTS PASS, BUT IT`S SLOWLY ERODING AND EXPECT IT
TO CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH A
FEW SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER, MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND IT`S POSSIBLE THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO DELAY THE ONSET
OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR AT LEAST THE DURATION WILL NOT
BE AS LONG.

OUR FIRST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN QUITE SOME TIME IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH THE HIGHEST
QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE HIGH, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN.

THE MODELS SHOW WEAK RIDGING SUNDAY EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT IN
A TEMPORARY BREAK IN RAINFALL, THEN ANOTHER AND STRONGER FRONT
ARRIVES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL BRING MORE RAINFALL TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AND MOST
WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.

THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NEAR THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA
BORDER WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA. THE EC HAS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION IN COOS...NORTHERN CURRY AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. FOR NOW
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION, BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AND ADJUST IF THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
CONSENSUS.

THE EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
(GFS FURTHER SOUTH, EC NORTH) TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH SHOW
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH LENDS ME TO BELIEVE THAT
WE`LL HAVE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.
-PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR IN OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW
LEVELS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL CHARACTER OF THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY AND ITS EVOLUTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES ARE
SIGNIFICANT THOUGH TYPICAL FOR DAYS 4 TO 7 IN AN ACTIVE WINTER
PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
THEN LIKELY SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA. THIS MOVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH
THE APPROACH OF A DEEP TROUGH. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN FAR
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY RESULT IN A VERY WET AND
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND BUILD NORTHWARD WHILE THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL STILL BE NEAR OR IN OUR AREA AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES NORTH. AS A RESULT, THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
LOWERED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE BLANCO ALONG THE UMPQUA DIVIDE TO
CHILOQUIN AND VALLEY FALLS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IF
THE STATIONARY FRONT DOES REMAIN IN OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE TO IDAHO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD
FRONT REACHING THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING THEN WEAKENING OVER THE
WEST SIDE DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND
7500 FT MSL ON THURSDAY WITH WEST SIDE POPS IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY
CATEGORY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ON THE EAST SIDE.

A SERIES OF STRONGER FRONTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
REMAINING ABOVE 7000 FT MSL. AT THIS TIME, FOUR DISTINCT FRONTS ARE
INDICATED. THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE FAST MOVING BUT MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. /DW

&&

.AVIATION...THE LAST OF THE LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY BURNING OFF NEAR
GRANTS PASS AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT CLOUD CLEAR OUT BY 0Z.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. IFR/LIFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO WEST SIDE VALLEYS AFTER 04Z AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF A FRONT COULD LIMIT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT, THEN
AFTER AROUND 15Z SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECKS COULD
RISE AND THIN DUE TO THE APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. THE
PEAKS OF THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY BECOME OBSCURED AFTER 18Z
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ON THE
WEST SIDE. MEANTIME, IT WILL LIKELY STAY VFR ON THE EAST SIDE. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 AM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2015...NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST NEAR SHORE AND AWAY FROM CAPE BLANCO
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT THEN A FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS...AND MODERATE WEST SWELL BUILDING LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH MODERATE
SOUTH WINDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATE ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WINDS. BUT WEST SWELL WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS RAIN TO THE WATERS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. CONDITIONS IMPROVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THE FIRST COUPLE IN A SERIES OF STRONGER
FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO BRING GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. /DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

MAP/DW/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 312248
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
248 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO LINGER NEAR GRANTS PASS, BUT IT`S SLOWLY ERODING AND EXPECT IT
TO CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH A
FEW SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER, MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND IT`S POSSIBLE THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO DELAY THE ONSET
OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR AT LEAST THE DURATION WILL NOT
BE AS LONG.

OUR FIRST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN QUITE SOME TIME IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH THE HIGHEST
QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE HIGH, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN.

THE MODELS SHOW WEAK RIDGING SUNDAY EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT IN
A TEMPORARY BREAK IN RAINFALL, THEN ANOTHER AND STRONGER FRONT
ARRIVES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL BRING MORE RAINFALL TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AND MOST
WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.

THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NEAR THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA
BORDER WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA. THE EC HAS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION IN COOS...NORTHERN CURRY AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. FOR NOW
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION, BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AND ADJUST IF THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
CONSENSUS.

THE EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
(GFS FURTHER SOUTH, EC NORTH) TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH SHOW
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH LENDS ME TO BELIEVE THAT
WE`LL HAVE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.
-PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR IN OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW
LEVELS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL CHARACTER OF THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY AND ITS EVOLUTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES ARE
SIGNIFICANT THOUGH TYPICAL FOR DAYS 4 TO 7 IN AN ACTIVE WINTER
PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
THEN LIKELY SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA. THIS MOVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH
THE APPROACH OF A DEEP TROUGH. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN FAR
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY RESULT IN A VERY WET AND
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND BUILD NORTHWARD WHILE THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL STILL BE NEAR OR IN OUR AREA AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES NORTH. AS A RESULT, THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
LOWERED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE BLANCO ALONG THE UMPQUA DIVIDE TO
CHILOQUIN AND VALLEY FALLS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IF
THE STATIONARY FRONT DOES REMAIN IN OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE TO IDAHO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD
FRONT REACHING THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING THEN WEAKENING OVER THE
WEST SIDE DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND
7500 FT MSL ON THURSDAY WITH WEST SIDE POPS IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY
CATEGORY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ON THE EAST SIDE.

A SERIES OF STRONGER FRONTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
REMAINING ABOVE 7000 FT MSL. AT THIS TIME, FOUR DISTINCT FRONTS ARE
INDICATED. THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE FAST MOVING BUT MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. /DW

&&

.AVIATION...THE LAST OF THE LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY BURNING OFF NEAR
GRANTS PASS AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT CLOUD CLEAR OUT BY 0Z.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. IFR/LIFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO WEST SIDE VALLEYS AFTER 04Z AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF A FRONT COULD LIMIT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT, THEN
AFTER AROUND 15Z SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECKS COULD
RISE AND THIN DUE TO THE APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. THE
PEAKS OF THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY BECOME OBSCURED AFTER 18Z
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ON THE
WEST SIDE. MEANTIME, IT WILL LIKELY STAY VFR ON THE EAST SIDE. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 AM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2015...NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST NEAR SHORE AND AWAY FROM CAPE BLANCO
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT THEN A FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS...AND MODERATE WEST SWELL BUILDING LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH MODERATE
SOUTH WINDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATE ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WINDS. BUT WEST SWELL WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS RAIN TO THE WATERS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. CONDITIONS IMPROVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THE FIRST COUPLE IN A SERIES OF STRONGER
FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO BRING GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. /DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

MAP/DW/BTL



000
FXUS66 KPDT 312246
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
246 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE REGION WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. THUS EXPECT THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSIONS TO REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG GENERALLY BELOW 3500-4000 FT MSL. THERE
MAY SOME LOCAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. AM UNSURE EXACTLY WHICH
LOCATIONS WILL SEE DENSE FOG, THUS WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT
THIS TIME. A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START BETWEEN 2000 AND 4000 FT MSL SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000 FT MSL BY AFTERNOON. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT ABOVE THESE LEVELS. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS LEADING TO
THE BREAK UP OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE AREA. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, SUNDAY NIGHT
DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. A STRONGER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE WETTER THAN
THE SYSTEM SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS MONDAY WILL BE HIGHER, RUNNING FROM
4500 TO 6500 FT MSL. THUS SNOW WILL LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
RIDGES. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WELL
MIXED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONALLY MILD. 90

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS
WA/OR INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE TWO STATE AREA. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALSO TIGHTEN AND BREEZY
SURFACE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE LIKELY
WITH LCL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAFS SITES ESPECIALLY AT KPDT
AND KALW. ELSEWHERE LCL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH TAF
SITES KRDM AND KBDN MAY EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO THIS
EVENING. AFT 04Z ALL TAF SITES COULD EXPERIENCE AREAS OF MVFR AND
LCL IFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY AND MORE SO AFTER 15Z TOMORROW IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  32  40  36  51 /  10  60  40  60
ALW  34  41  39  52 /  10  60  40  70
PSC  34  42  35  51 /  10  50  30  60
YKM  32  39  33  46 /  10  30  20  50
HRI  34  42  36  52 /  10  50  30  60
ELN  31  40  32  45 /  10  30  20  60
RDM  28  51  37  57 /   0  30  30  60
LGD  24  43  34  48 /   0  50  50  70
GCD  29  46  35  52 /  10  30  40  60
DLS  37  46  38  52 /  10  40  30  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/97/97








000
FXUS66 KPDT 312246
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
246 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE REGION WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. THUS EXPECT THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSIONS TO REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG GENERALLY BELOW 3500-4000 FT MSL. THERE
MAY SOME LOCAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. AM UNSURE EXACTLY WHICH
LOCATIONS WILL SEE DENSE FOG, THUS WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT
THIS TIME. A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START BETWEEN 2000 AND 4000 FT MSL SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000 FT MSL BY AFTERNOON. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT ABOVE THESE LEVELS. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS LEADING TO
THE BREAK UP OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE AREA. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, SUNDAY NIGHT
DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. A STRONGER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE WETTER THAN
THE SYSTEM SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS MONDAY WILL BE HIGHER, RUNNING FROM
4500 TO 6500 FT MSL. THUS SNOW WILL LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
RIDGES. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WELL
MIXED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONALLY MILD. 90

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS
WA/OR INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE TWO STATE AREA. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALSO TIGHTEN AND BREEZY
SURFACE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE LIKELY
WITH LCL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAFS SITES ESPECIALLY AT KPDT
AND KALW. ELSEWHERE LCL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH TAF
SITES KRDM AND KBDN MAY EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO THIS
EVENING. AFT 04Z ALL TAF SITES COULD EXPERIENCE AREAS OF MVFR AND
LCL IFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY AND MORE SO AFTER 15Z TOMORROW IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  32  40  36  51 /  10  60  40  60
ALW  34  41  39  52 /  10  60  40  70
PSC  34  42  35  51 /  10  50  30  60
YKM  32  39  33  46 /  10  30  20  50
HRI  34  42  36  52 /  10  50  30  60
ELN  31  40  32  45 /  10  30  20  60
RDM  28  51  37  57 /   0  30  30  60
LGD  24  43  34  48 /   0  50  50  70
GCD  29  46  35  52 /  10  30  40  60
DLS  37  46  38  52 /  10  40  30  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/97/97









000
FXUS66 KPQR 312231
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING INLAND ON SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT
MAY LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOME AREAS LATE TONIGHT...BUT STILL
EXPECT SOME VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS NW OREGON
AND SW WASHINGTON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT ON
MONDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
BE DRY OR RAINY...BUT THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT THE END OF THE
WEAK WILL BE WET. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY STAY HIGH...BUT THERE WILL BE
CHANCES FOR NEW SNOW AT THE HIGHER CASCADES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER NW OREGON SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE
UPPER LOWS...ONE OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND THE OTHER OVER
ARIZONA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM OFFSHORE WITH A WARM FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST...AND A COLD FRONT AROUND 135W. THIS IS RESULTING IN
AN EASTERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE TROUTDALE TO DALLES
GRADIENT AROUND 6 MB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE HAVE HELPED
ERODE THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FOG HAS IMPROVED FOR THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND
THROUGH TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXPECT A RETURN OF AT LEAST
STRATUS TO THE INLAND AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED TODAY. THE PRESENCE OF
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
SOMEWHAT AND DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS. THE EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THINK THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS STILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME AT LEAST SPOTTY DENSE
FOG.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT SHOULD GENERATE 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH OF RAIN FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADES WITH LESS THAN 0.25 INCH
FOR THE LOW LANDS. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 6KFT AND 7KFT SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY LOWERING TO BELOW 6KFT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT
BRINGING RAIN MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS FRONT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE SUNDAY SYSTEM AND
WILL PRODUCE SLIGHTLY GUSTIER WINDS FOR THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS. EXPECT 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH OF RAIN FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETWEEN 0.2 AND
0.4 INCH FOR THE LOW LANDS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 5500 AND 6500 FEET MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY 6
TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR THE VERY HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WEAKENING
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY BRING A DUSTING OF SNOW TO THE CASCADE
PASSES OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH SPOTTY 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET. TJ

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS FORECASTING AN UPPER RIDGE TO RETURN OVER THE
PACIFIC NW AND THE ECMWF FORECASTING A WEAKER RIDGE FURTHER
OFFSHORE...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE REGION. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT BOTH OF THESE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THEIR
FORECASTS...WITH THE GFS RIDGE AND THE ECMWF TROUGH BEING TOO STRONG.
THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR NW OREGON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN WET WEATHER. THINK
THERE WILL BE A BIT OF BOTH AND EXPECT A WARM FRONT WILL BRING VERY
LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH DRYING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS PANS
OUT AS A LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF RAIN FORECAST.

THE MODELS ARE THEN IN SURPRISING AGREEMENT THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SWATH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A
SERIES OF ATMOSPHERIC WAVES SETS UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO  PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE FIRST WEATHER
SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK PAN OUT BEFORE EVEN TRYING
TO DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...STUBBORN LIFR FOG REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ELSEWHERE FOG HAS SCATTERED OUT.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT...WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS TONIGHT. PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG SHOULD IMPACT LOCATIONS FROM 04Z-12Z ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER LIKE KKLS AND THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY BEFORE
MID CLOUDS REACH THEM. EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE WILL KEEP THE
PDX/VUO METRO AREAS CLEAR OF FOG TONIGHT. COASTAL SITES SHOULD
REMAIN VFR TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD IMPACT THE SW WA/FAR NW OR
COASTS EARLY SUN MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH
GUSTY EAST WINDS. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE NEAREST THE GORGE. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS BETWEEN 5K-10K FT
AFTER 14Z SUN. KPDX MAY SEE SOME BRIEF AND SHALLOW IFR FOG
DEVELOP IF EAST WINDS HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SUN. /27
&&

.MARINE...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER FRONTAL
SYSTEMS CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FIRST FRONT ON SUNDAY
BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 20
KTS WHILE BRINGING SEAS UP TO AROUND 8 FT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW ON SOLID GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30
TO 35 KTS LIKELY. STRONG WINDS WILL RAMP UP EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL WINDS EASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SEAS UP
TO AROUND 12 TO 13 FT ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN
EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE
SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT. /27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 312231
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING INLAND ON SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT
MAY LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOME AREAS LATE TONIGHT...BUT STILL
EXPECT SOME VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS NW OREGON
AND SW WASHINGTON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT ON
MONDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
BE DRY OR RAINY...BUT THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT THE END OF THE
WEAK WILL BE WET. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY STAY HIGH...BUT THERE WILL BE
CHANCES FOR NEW SNOW AT THE HIGHER CASCADES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER NW OREGON SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE
UPPER LOWS...ONE OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND THE OTHER OVER
ARIZONA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM OFFSHORE WITH A WARM FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST...AND A COLD FRONT AROUND 135W. THIS IS RESULTING IN
AN EASTERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE TROUTDALE TO DALLES
GRADIENT AROUND 6 MB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE HAVE HELPED
ERODE THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FOG HAS IMPROVED FOR THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND
THROUGH TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXPECT A RETURN OF AT LEAST
STRATUS TO THE INLAND AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED TODAY. THE PRESENCE OF
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
SOMEWHAT AND DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS. THE EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THINK THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS STILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME AT LEAST SPOTTY DENSE
FOG.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT SHOULD GENERATE 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH OF RAIN FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADES WITH LESS THAN 0.25 INCH
FOR THE LOW LANDS. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 6KFT AND 7KFT SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY LOWERING TO BELOW 6KFT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT
BRINGING RAIN MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS FRONT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE SUNDAY SYSTEM AND
WILL PRODUCE SLIGHTLY GUSTIER WINDS FOR THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS. EXPECT 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH OF RAIN FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETWEEN 0.2 AND
0.4 INCH FOR THE LOW LANDS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 5500 AND 6500 FEET MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY 6
TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR THE VERY HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WEAKENING
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY BRING A DUSTING OF SNOW TO THE CASCADE
PASSES OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH SPOTTY 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET. TJ

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS FORECASTING AN UPPER RIDGE TO RETURN OVER THE
PACIFIC NW AND THE ECMWF FORECASTING A WEAKER RIDGE FURTHER
OFFSHORE...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE REGION. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT BOTH OF THESE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THEIR
FORECASTS...WITH THE GFS RIDGE AND THE ECMWF TROUGH BEING TOO STRONG.
THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR NW OREGON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN WET WEATHER. THINK
THERE WILL BE A BIT OF BOTH AND EXPECT A WARM FRONT WILL BRING VERY
LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH DRYING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS PANS
OUT AS A LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF RAIN FORECAST.

THE MODELS ARE THEN IN SURPRISING AGREEMENT THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SWATH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A
SERIES OF ATMOSPHERIC WAVES SETS UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO  PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE FIRST WEATHER
SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK PAN OUT BEFORE EVEN TRYING
TO DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...STUBBORN LIFR FOG REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ELSEWHERE FOG HAS SCATTERED OUT.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT...WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS TONIGHT. PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG SHOULD IMPACT LOCATIONS FROM 04Z-12Z ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER LIKE KKLS AND THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY BEFORE
MID CLOUDS REACH THEM. EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE WILL KEEP THE
PDX/VUO METRO AREAS CLEAR OF FOG TONIGHT. COASTAL SITES SHOULD
REMAIN VFR TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD IMPACT THE SW WA/FAR NW OR
COASTS EARLY SUN MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH
GUSTY EAST WINDS. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE NEAREST THE GORGE. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS BETWEEN 5K-10K FT
AFTER 14Z SUN. KPDX MAY SEE SOME BRIEF AND SHALLOW IFR FOG
DEVELOP IF EAST WINDS HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SUN. /27
&&

.MARINE...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER FRONTAL
SYSTEMS CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FIRST FRONT ON SUNDAY
BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 20
KTS WHILE BRINGING SEAS UP TO AROUND 8 FT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW ON SOLID GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30
TO 35 KTS LIKELY. STRONG WINDS WILL RAMP UP EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL WINDS EASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SEAS UP
TO AROUND 12 TO 13 FT ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN
EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE
SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT. /27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 312231
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING INLAND ON SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT
MAY LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOME AREAS LATE TONIGHT...BUT STILL
EXPECT SOME VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS NW OREGON
AND SW WASHINGTON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT ON
MONDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
BE DRY OR RAINY...BUT THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT THE END OF THE
WEAK WILL BE WET. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY STAY HIGH...BUT THERE WILL BE
CHANCES FOR NEW SNOW AT THE HIGHER CASCADES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER NW OREGON SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE
UPPER LOWS...ONE OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND THE OTHER OVER
ARIZONA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM OFFSHORE WITH A WARM FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST...AND A COLD FRONT AROUND 135W. THIS IS RESULTING IN
AN EASTERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE TROUTDALE TO DALLES
GRADIENT AROUND 6 MB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE HAVE HELPED
ERODE THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FOG HAS IMPROVED FOR THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND
THROUGH TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXPECT A RETURN OF AT LEAST
STRATUS TO THE INLAND AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED TODAY. THE PRESENCE OF
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
SOMEWHAT AND DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS. THE EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THINK THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS STILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME AT LEAST SPOTTY DENSE
FOG.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT SHOULD GENERATE 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH OF RAIN FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADES WITH LESS THAN 0.25 INCH
FOR THE LOW LANDS. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 6KFT AND 7KFT SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY LOWERING TO BELOW 6KFT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT
BRINGING RAIN MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS FRONT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE SUNDAY SYSTEM AND
WILL PRODUCE SLIGHTLY GUSTIER WINDS FOR THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS. EXPECT 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH OF RAIN FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETWEEN 0.2 AND
0.4 INCH FOR THE LOW LANDS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 5500 AND 6500 FEET MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY 6
TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR THE VERY HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WEAKENING
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY BRING A DUSTING OF SNOW TO THE CASCADE
PASSES OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH SPOTTY 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET. TJ

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS FORECASTING AN UPPER RIDGE TO RETURN OVER THE
PACIFIC NW AND THE ECMWF FORECASTING A WEAKER RIDGE FURTHER
OFFSHORE...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE REGION. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT BOTH OF THESE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THEIR
FORECASTS...WITH THE GFS RIDGE AND THE ECMWF TROUGH BEING TOO STRONG.
THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR NW OREGON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN WET WEATHER. THINK
THERE WILL BE A BIT OF BOTH AND EXPECT A WARM FRONT WILL BRING VERY
LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH DRYING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS PANS
OUT AS A LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF RAIN FORECAST.

THE MODELS ARE THEN IN SURPRISING AGREEMENT THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SWATH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A
SERIES OF ATMOSPHERIC WAVES SETS UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO  PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE FIRST WEATHER
SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK PAN OUT BEFORE EVEN TRYING
TO DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...STUBBORN LIFR FOG REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ELSEWHERE FOG HAS SCATTERED OUT.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT...WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS TONIGHT. PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG SHOULD IMPACT LOCATIONS FROM 04Z-12Z ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER LIKE KKLS AND THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY BEFORE
MID CLOUDS REACH THEM. EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE WILL KEEP THE
PDX/VUO METRO AREAS CLEAR OF FOG TONIGHT. COASTAL SITES SHOULD
REMAIN VFR TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD IMPACT THE SW WA/FAR NW OR
COASTS EARLY SUN MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH
GUSTY EAST WINDS. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE NEAREST THE GORGE. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS BETWEEN 5K-10K FT
AFTER 14Z SUN. KPDX MAY SEE SOME BRIEF AND SHALLOW IFR FOG
DEVELOP IF EAST WINDS HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SUN. /27
&&

.MARINE...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER FRONTAL
SYSTEMS CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FIRST FRONT ON SUNDAY
BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 20
KTS WHILE BRINGING SEAS UP TO AROUND 8 FT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW ON SOLID GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30
TO 35 KTS LIKELY. STRONG WINDS WILL RAMP UP EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL WINDS EASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SEAS UP
TO AROUND 12 TO 13 FT ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN
EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE
SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT. /27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 312231
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING INLAND ON SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT
MAY LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOME AREAS LATE TONIGHT...BUT STILL
EXPECT SOME VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS NW OREGON
AND SW WASHINGTON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT ON
MONDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
BE DRY OR RAINY...BUT THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT THE END OF THE
WEAK WILL BE WET. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY STAY HIGH...BUT THERE WILL BE
CHANCES FOR NEW SNOW AT THE HIGHER CASCADES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER NW OREGON SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE
UPPER LOWS...ONE OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND THE OTHER OVER
ARIZONA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM OFFSHORE WITH A WARM FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST...AND A COLD FRONT AROUND 135W. THIS IS RESULTING IN
AN EASTERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE TROUTDALE TO DALLES
GRADIENT AROUND 6 MB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE HAVE HELPED
ERODE THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FOG HAS IMPROVED FOR THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND
THROUGH TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXPECT A RETURN OF AT LEAST
STRATUS TO THE INLAND AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED TODAY. THE PRESENCE OF
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
SOMEWHAT AND DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS. THE EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THINK THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS STILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME AT LEAST SPOTTY DENSE
FOG.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT SHOULD GENERATE 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH OF RAIN FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADES WITH LESS THAN 0.25 INCH
FOR THE LOW LANDS. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 6KFT AND 7KFT SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY LOWERING TO BELOW 6KFT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT
BRINGING RAIN MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS FRONT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE SUNDAY SYSTEM AND
WILL PRODUCE SLIGHTLY GUSTIER WINDS FOR THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS. EXPECT 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH OF RAIN FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETWEEN 0.2 AND
0.4 INCH FOR THE LOW LANDS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 5500 AND 6500 FEET MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY 6
TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR THE VERY HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WEAKENING
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY BRING A DUSTING OF SNOW TO THE CASCADE
PASSES OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH SPOTTY 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET. TJ

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS FORECASTING AN UPPER RIDGE TO RETURN OVER THE
PACIFIC NW AND THE ECMWF FORECASTING A WEAKER RIDGE FURTHER
OFFSHORE...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE REGION. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT BOTH OF THESE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THEIR
FORECASTS...WITH THE GFS RIDGE AND THE ECMWF TROUGH BEING TOO STRONG.
THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR NW OREGON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN WET WEATHER. THINK
THERE WILL BE A BIT OF BOTH AND EXPECT A WARM FRONT WILL BRING VERY
LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH DRYING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS PANS
OUT AS A LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF RAIN FORECAST.

THE MODELS ARE THEN IN SURPRISING AGREEMENT THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SWATH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A
SERIES OF ATMOSPHERIC WAVES SETS UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO  PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE FIRST WEATHER
SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK PAN OUT BEFORE EVEN TRYING
TO DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...STUBBORN LIFR FOG REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ELSEWHERE FOG HAS SCATTERED OUT.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT...WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS TONIGHT. PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG SHOULD IMPACT LOCATIONS FROM 04Z-12Z ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER LIKE KKLS AND THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY BEFORE
MID CLOUDS REACH THEM. EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE WILL KEEP THE
PDX/VUO METRO AREAS CLEAR OF FOG TONIGHT. COASTAL SITES SHOULD
REMAIN VFR TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD IMPACT THE SW WA/FAR NW OR
COASTS EARLY SUN MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH
GUSTY EAST WINDS. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE NEAREST THE GORGE. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS BETWEEN 5K-10K FT
AFTER 14Z SUN. KPDX MAY SEE SOME BRIEF AND SHALLOW IFR FOG
DEVELOP IF EAST WINDS HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SUN. /27
&&

.MARINE...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER FRONTAL
SYSTEMS CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FIRST FRONT ON SUNDAY
BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 20
KTS WHILE BRINGING SEAS UP TO AROUND 8 FT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW ON SOLID GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30
TO 35 KTS LIKELY. STRONG WINDS WILL RAMP UP EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL WINDS EASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SEAS UP
TO AROUND 12 TO 13 FT ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN
EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE
SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT. /27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 312212
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
212 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR GRANTS PASS, BUT
IT`S SLOWLY ERODING AND EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH A FEW SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IT`S POSSIBLE THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO DELAY THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR AT
LEAST THE DURATION WILL NOT BE AS LONG.

OUR FIRST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN QUITE SOME TIME IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH THE HIGHEST
QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE HIGH, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE AL RAIN.

THE MODELS SHOW WEAK RIDGING WHICH COULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY
BREAK IN RAINFALL, THEN ANOTHER AND AND STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AND MOST WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.

THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NEAR THE OREGON CALIFORNIA
BORDER WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA. THE EC HAS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION IN COOS...NORTHERN CURRY AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. FOR NOW
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION, BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AND ADJUST IF THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
CONSENSUS.

THE EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
(GFS FURTHER SOUTH, EC NORTH) TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH SHOW
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH LENDS ME TO BELIEVE THAT
WE`LL HAVE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.
-PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...THE LAST OF THE LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY BURNING OFF NEAR
GRANTS PASS AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT CLOUD CLEAR OUT BY 0Z.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. IFR/LIFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO WEST SIDE VALLEYS AFTER 04Z AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF A FRONT COULD LIMIT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT, THEN
AFTER AROUND 15Z SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECKS COULD
RISE AND THIN DUE TO THE APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. THE
PEAKS OF THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY BECOME OBSCURED AFTER 18Z
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ON THE
WEST SIDE. MEANTIME, IT WILL LIKELY STAY VFR ON THE EAST SIDE. /DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 AM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2015...NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST NEAR SHORE AND AWAY FROM CAPE BLANCO
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT THEN A FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS...AND MODERATE WEST SWELL BUILDING LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH MODERATE
SOUTH WINDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATE ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WINDS. BUT WEST SWELL WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS RAIN TO THE WATERS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. CONDITIONS IMPROVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THE FIRST COUPLE IN A SERIES OF STRONGER
FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO BRING GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. /DW


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 312212
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
212 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR GRANTS PASS, BUT
IT`S SLOWLY ERODING AND EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH A FEW SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IT`S POSSIBLE THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO DELAY THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR AT
LEAST THE DURATION WILL NOT BE AS LONG.

OUR FIRST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN QUITE SOME TIME IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH THE HIGHEST
QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE HIGH, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE AL RAIN.

THE MODELS SHOW WEAK RIDGING WHICH COULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY
BREAK IN RAINFALL, THEN ANOTHER AND AND STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AND MOST WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.

THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NEAR THE OREGON CALIFORNIA
BORDER WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA. THE EC HAS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION IN COOS...NORTHERN CURRY AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. FOR NOW
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION, BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AND ADJUST IF THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
CONSENSUS.

THE EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
(GFS FURTHER SOUTH, EC NORTH) TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH SHOW
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH LENDS ME TO BELIEVE THAT
WE`LL HAVE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.
-PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...THE LAST OF THE LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY BURNING OFF NEAR
GRANTS PASS AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT CLOUD CLEAR OUT BY 0Z.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. IFR/LIFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO WEST SIDE VALLEYS AFTER 04Z AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF A FRONT COULD LIMIT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT, THEN
AFTER AROUND 15Z SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECKS COULD
RISE AND THIN DUE TO THE APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. THE
PEAKS OF THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY BECOME OBSCURED AFTER 18Z
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ON THE
WEST SIDE. MEANTIME, IT WILL LIKELY STAY VFR ON THE EAST SIDE. /DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 AM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2015...NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST NEAR SHORE AND AWAY FROM CAPE BLANCO
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT THEN A FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS...AND MODERATE WEST SWELL BUILDING LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH MODERATE
SOUTH WINDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATE ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WINDS. BUT WEST SWELL WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS RAIN TO THE WATERS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. CONDITIONS IMPROVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THE FIRST COUPLE IN A SERIES OF STRONGER
FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO BRING GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. /DW


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 312212
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
212 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR GRANTS PASS, BUT
IT`S SLOWLY ERODING AND EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH A FEW SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IT`S POSSIBLE THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO DELAY THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR AT
LEAST THE DURATION WILL NOT BE AS LONG.

OUR FIRST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN QUITE SOME TIME IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH THE HIGHEST
QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE HIGH, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE AL RAIN.

THE MODELS SHOW WEAK RIDGING WHICH COULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY
BREAK IN RAINFALL, THEN ANOTHER AND AND STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AND MOST WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.

THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NEAR THE OREGON CALIFORNIA
BORDER WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA. THE EC HAS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION IN COOS...NORTHERN CURRY AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. FOR NOW
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION, BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AND ADJUST IF THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
CONSENSUS.

THE EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
(GFS FURTHER SOUTH, EC NORTH) TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH SHOW
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH LENDS ME TO BELIEVE THAT
WE`LL HAVE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.
-PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...THE LAST OF THE LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY BURNING OFF NEAR
GRANTS PASS AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT CLOUD CLEAR OUT BY 0Z.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. IFR/LIFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO WEST SIDE VALLEYS AFTER 04Z AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF A FRONT COULD LIMIT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT, THEN
AFTER AROUND 15Z SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECKS COULD
RISE AND THIN DUE TO THE APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. THE
PEAKS OF THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY BECOME OBSCURED AFTER 18Z
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ON THE
WEST SIDE. MEANTIME, IT WILL LIKELY STAY VFR ON THE EAST SIDE. /DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 AM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2015...NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST NEAR SHORE AND AWAY FROM CAPE BLANCO
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT THEN A FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS...AND MODERATE WEST SWELL BUILDING LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH MODERATE
SOUTH WINDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATE ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WINDS. BUT WEST SWELL WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS RAIN TO THE WATERS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. CONDITIONS IMPROVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THE FIRST COUPLE IN A SERIES OF STRONGER
FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO BRING GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. /DW


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 312212
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
212 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR GRANTS PASS, BUT
IT`S SLOWLY ERODING AND EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH A FEW SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IT`S POSSIBLE THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO DELAY THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR AT
LEAST THE DURATION WILL NOT BE AS LONG.

OUR FIRST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN QUITE SOME TIME IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH THE HIGHEST
QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE HIGH, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE AL RAIN.

THE MODELS SHOW WEAK RIDGING WHICH COULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY
BREAK IN RAINFALL, THEN ANOTHER AND AND STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AND MOST WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.

THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NEAR THE OREGON CALIFORNIA
BORDER WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA. THE EC HAS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION IN COOS...NORTHERN CURRY AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. FOR NOW
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION, BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AND ADJUST IF THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
CONSENSUS.

THE EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
(GFS FURTHER SOUTH, EC NORTH) TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH SHOW
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH LENDS ME TO BELIEVE THAT
WE`LL HAVE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.
-PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...THE LAST OF THE LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY BURNING OFF NEAR
GRANTS PASS AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT CLOUD CLEAR OUT BY 0Z.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. IFR/LIFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO WEST SIDE VALLEYS AFTER 04Z AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF A FRONT COULD LIMIT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT, THEN
AFTER AROUND 15Z SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECKS COULD
RISE AND THIN DUE TO THE APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. THE
PEAKS OF THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY BECOME OBSCURED AFTER 18Z
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ON THE
WEST SIDE. MEANTIME, IT WILL LIKELY STAY VFR ON THE EAST SIDE. /DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 AM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2015...NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST NEAR SHORE AND AWAY FROM CAPE BLANCO
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT THEN A FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS...AND MODERATE WEST SWELL BUILDING LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH MODERATE
SOUTH WINDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATE ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WINDS. BUT WEST SWELL WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS RAIN TO THE WATERS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. CONDITIONS IMPROVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THE FIRST COUPLE IN A SERIES OF STRONGER
FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO BRING GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. /DW


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 312212
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
212 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR GRANTS PASS, BUT
IT`S SLOWLY ERODING AND EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH A FEW SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IT`S POSSIBLE THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO DELAY THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR AT
LEAST THE DURATION WILL NOT BE AS LONG.

OUR FIRST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN QUITE SOME TIME IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH THE HIGHEST
QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE HIGH, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE AL RAIN.

THE MODELS SHOW WEAK RIDGING WHICH COULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY
BREAK IN RAINFALL, THEN ANOTHER AND AND STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AND MOST WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.

THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NEAR THE OREGON CALIFORNIA
BORDER WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA. THE EC HAS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION IN COOS...NORTHERN CURRY AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. FOR NOW
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION, BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AND ADJUST IF THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
CONSENSUS.

THE EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
(GFS FURTHER SOUTH, EC NORTH) TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH SHOW
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH LENDS ME TO BELIEVE THAT
WE`LL HAVE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.
-PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...THE LAST OF THE LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY BURNING OFF NEAR
GRANTS PASS AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT CLOUD CLEAR OUT BY 0Z.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. IFR/LIFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO WEST SIDE VALLEYS AFTER 04Z AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF A FRONT COULD LIMIT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT, THEN
AFTER AROUND 15Z SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECKS COULD
RISE AND THIN DUE TO THE APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. THE
PEAKS OF THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY BECOME OBSCURED AFTER 18Z
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ON THE
WEST SIDE. MEANTIME, IT WILL LIKELY STAY VFR ON THE EAST SIDE. /DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 AM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2015...NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST NEAR SHORE AND AWAY FROM CAPE BLANCO
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT THEN A FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS...AND MODERATE WEST SWELL BUILDING LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH MODERATE
SOUTH WINDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATE ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WINDS. BUT WEST SWELL WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS RAIN TO THE WATERS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. CONDITIONS IMPROVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THE FIRST COUPLE IN A SERIES OF STRONGER
FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO BRING GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. /DW


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 312212
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
212 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR GRANTS PASS, BUT
IT`S SLOWLY ERODING AND EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH A FEW SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IT`S POSSIBLE THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO DELAY THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR AT
LEAST THE DURATION WILL NOT BE AS LONG.

OUR FIRST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN QUITE SOME TIME IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH THE HIGHEST
QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE HIGH, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE AL RAIN.

THE MODELS SHOW WEAK RIDGING WHICH COULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY
BREAK IN RAINFALL, THEN ANOTHER AND AND STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AND MOST WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.

THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NEAR THE OREGON CALIFORNIA
BORDER WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA. THE EC HAS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION IN COOS...NORTHERN CURRY AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. FOR NOW
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION, BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AND ADJUST IF THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
CONSENSUS.

THE EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
(GFS FURTHER SOUTH, EC NORTH) TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH SHOW
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH LENDS ME TO BELIEVE THAT
WE`LL HAVE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.
-PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...THE LAST OF THE LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY BURNING OFF NEAR
GRANTS PASS AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT CLOUD CLEAR OUT BY 0Z.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. IFR/LIFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO WEST SIDE VALLEYS AFTER 04Z AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF A FRONT COULD LIMIT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT, THEN
AFTER AROUND 15Z SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECKS COULD
RISE AND THIN DUE TO THE APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. THE
PEAKS OF THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY BECOME OBSCURED AFTER 18Z
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ON THE
WEST SIDE. MEANTIME, IT WILL LIKELY STAY VFR ON THE EAST SIDE. /DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 AM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2015...NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST NEAR SHORE AND AWAY FROM CAPE BLANCO
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT THEN A FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS...AND MODERATE WEST SWELL BUILDING LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH MODERATE
SOUTH WINDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATE ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WINDS. BUT WEST SWELL WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS RAIN TO THE WATERS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. CONDITIONS IMPROVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THE FIRST COUPLE IN A SERIES OF STRONGER
FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO BRING GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. /DW


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 312143
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
233 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FIRST TROUGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL COME INLAND
BEGINNING SUNDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EVER-PRESENT
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA.  PCPN WILL BEGIN IN OUR
NRN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BULK OF IT SUNDAY EVENING IN
IDAHO ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  AFTER A SHORT BREAK MONDAY
MORNING A WETTER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING MORE PCPN MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO ALL ZONES.  TEMPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL CHANGE
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AND
MONDAY A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN.  POPS WILL BE CLOSE
TO MET MOS...AS MAV MOS CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY BIAS.  PATCHY FOG
AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EXITING SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS ACROSS SW IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE MOISTURE TOP
OUT OF THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR BOTH RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE LONG VALLEY AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE. DRIER THURSDAY WITH A PACIFIC RIDGE OVER THE AREA. RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT WET CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR-IFR STRATUS AT KBNO AND KJER SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
22Z. IFR STRATUS SHOULD REBUILD AT KJER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT W/NW SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COULD KEEP FOG/STRATUS FROM
REFORMING IN SOUTHEAST OREGON.  FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS OF SW IDAHO. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS
THROUGH 10K FT MSL. PATCHY LIFR FOG TO RETURN SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....JDS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 312143
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
233 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FIRST TROUGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL COME INLAND
BEGINNING SUNDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EVER-PRESENT
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA.  PCPN WILL BEGIN IN OUR
NRN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BULK OF IT SUNDAY EVENING IN
IDAHO ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  AFTER A SHORT BREAK MONDAY
MORNING A WETTER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING MORE PCPN MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO ALL ZONES.  TEMPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL CHANGE
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AND
MONDAY A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN.  POPS WILL BE CLOSE
TO MET MOS...AS MAV MOS CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY BIAS.  PATCHY FOG
AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EXITING SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS ACROSS SW IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE MOISTURE TOP
OUT OF THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR BOTH RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE LONG VALLEY AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE. DRIER THURSDAY WITH A PACIFIC RIDGE OVER THE AREA. RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT WET CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR-IFR STRATUS AT KBNO AND KJER SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
22Z. IFR STRATUS SHOULD REBUILD AT KJER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT W/NW SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COULD KEEP FOG/STRATUS FROM
REFORMING IN SOUTHEAST OREGON.  FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS OF SW IDAHO. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS
THROUGH 10K FT MSL. PATCHY LIFR FOG TO RETURN SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....JDS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 312143
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
233 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FIRST TROUGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL COME INLAND
BEGINNING SUNDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EVER-PRESENT
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA.  PCPN WILL BEGIN IN OUR
NRN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BULK OF IT SUNDAY EVENING IN
IDAHO ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  AFTER A SHORT BREAK MONDAY
MORNING A WETTER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING MORE PCPN MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO ALL ZONES.  TEMPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL CHANGE
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AND
MONDAY A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN.  POPS WILL BE CLOSE
TO MET MOS...AS MAV MOS CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY BIAS.  PATCHY FOG
AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EXITING SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS ACROSS SW IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE MOISTURE TOP
OUT OF THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR BOTH RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE LONG VALLEY AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE. DRIER THURSDAY WITH A PACIFIC RIDGE OVER THE AREA. RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT WET CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR-IFR STRATUS AT KBNO AND KJER SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
22Z. IFR STRATUS SHOULD REBUILD AT KJER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT W/NW SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COULD KEEP FOG/STRATUS FROM
REFORMING IN SOUTHEAST OREGON.  FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS OF SW IDAHO. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS
THROUGH 10K FT MSL. PATCHY LIFR FOG TO RETURN SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....JDS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 312143
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
233 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FIRST TROUGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL COME INLAND
BEGINNING SUNDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EVER-PRESENT
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA.  PCPN WILL BEGIN IN OUR
NRN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BULK OF IT SUNDAY EVENING IN
IDAHO ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  AFTER A SHORT BREAK MONDAY
MORNING A WETTER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING MORE PCPN MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO ALL ZONES.  TEMPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL CHANGE
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AND
MONDAY A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN.  POPS WILL BE CLOSE
TO MET MOS...AS MAV MOS CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY BIAS.  PATCHY FOG
AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EXITING SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS ACROSS SW IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE MOISTURE TOP
OUT OF THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR BOTH RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE LONG VALLEY AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE. DRIER THURSDAY WITH A PACIFIC RIDGE OVER THE AREA. RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT WET CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR-IFR STRATUS AT KBNO AND KJER SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
22Z. IFR STRATUS SHOULD REBUILD AT KJER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT W/NW SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COULD KEEP FOG/STRATUS FROM
REFORMING IN SOUTHEAST OREGON.  FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS OF SW IDAHO. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS
THROUGH 10K FT MSL. PATCHY LIFR FOG TO RETURN SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....JDS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 312133
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
233 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FIRTS TROUGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL COME INLAND
BEGINNING SUNDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EVER-PRESENT
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA.  PCPN WILL BEGIN IN OUR
NRN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BULK OF IT SUNDAY EVENING IN
IDAHO ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  AFTER A SHORT BREAK MONDAY
MORNING A WETTER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING MORE PCPN MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO ALL ZONES.  TEMPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL CHANGE
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AND
MONDAY A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN.  POPS WILL BE CLOSE
TO MET MOS...AS MAV MOS CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY BIAS.  PATCHY FOG
AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EXITING SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS ACROSS SW IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE MOISTURE TOP
OUT OF THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR BOTH RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE LONG VALLEY AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE. DRIER THURSDAY WITH A PACIFIC RIDGE OVER THE AREA. RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT WET CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR-IFR STRATUS AT KBNO AND KJER SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
22Z. IFR STRATUS SHOULD REBUILD AT KJER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT W/NW SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COULD KEEP FOG/STRATUS FROM
REFORMING IN SOUTHEAST OREGON.  FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS OF SW IDAHO. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS
THROUGH 10K FT MSL. PATCHY LIFR FOG TO RETURN SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....JDS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 312133
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
233 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FIRTS TROUGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL COME INLAND
BEGINNING SUNDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EVER-PRESENT
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA.  PCPN WILL BEGIN IN OUR
NRN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BULK OF IT SUNDAY EVENING IN
IDAHO ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  AFTER A SHORT BREAK MONDAY
MORNING A WETTER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING MORE PCPN MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO ALL ZONES.  TEMPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL CHANGE
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AND
MONDAY A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN.  POPS WILL BE CLOSE
TO MET MOS...AS MAV MOS CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY BIAS.  PATCHY FOG
AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EXITING SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS ACROSS SW IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE MOISTURE TOP
OUT OF THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR BOTH RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE LONG VALLEY AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE. DRIER THURSDAY WITH A PACIFIC RIDGE OVER THE AREA. RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT WET CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR-IFR STRATUS AT KBNO AND KJER SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
22Z. IFR STRATUS SHOULD REBUILD AT KJER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT W/NW SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COULD KEEP FOG/STRATUS FROM
REFORMING IN SOUTHEAST OREGON.  FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS OF SW IDAHO. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS
THROUGH 10K FT MSL. PATCHY LIFR FOG TO RETURN SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....JDS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 312133
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
233 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FIRTS TROUGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL COME INLAND
BEGINNING SUNDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EVER-PRESENT
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA.  PCPN WILL BEGIN IN OUR
NRN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BULK OF IT SUNDAY EVENING IN
IDAHO ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  AFTER A SHORT BREAK MONDAY
MORNING A WETTER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING MORE PCPN MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO ALL ZONES.  TEMPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL CHANGE
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AND
MONDAY A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN.  POPS WILL BE CLOSE
TO MET MOS...AS MAV MOS CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY BIAS.  PATCHY FOG
AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EXITING SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS ACROSS SW IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE MOISTURE TOP
OUT OF THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR BOTH RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE LONG VALLEY AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE. DRIER THURSDAY WITH A PACIFIC RIDGE OVER THE AREA. RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT WET CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR-IFR STRATUS AT KBNO AND KJER SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
22Z. IFR STRATUS SHOULD REBUILD AT KJER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT W/NW SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COULD KEEP FOG/STRATUS FROM
REFORMING IN SOUTHEAST OREGON.  FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS OF SW IDAHO. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS
THROUGH 10K FT MSL. PATCHY LIFR FOG TO RETURN SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....JDS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 312133
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
233 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FIRTS TROUGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL COME INLAND
BEGINNING SUNDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EVER-PRESENT
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA.  PCPN WILL BEGIN IN OUR
NRN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BULK OF IT SUNDAY EVENING IN
IDAHO ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  AFTER A SHORT BREAK MONDAY
MORNING A WETTER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING MORE PCPN MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO ALL ZONES.  TEMPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL CHANGE
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AND
MONDAY A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN.  POPS WILL BE CLOSE
TO MET MOS...AS MAV MOS CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY BIAS.  PATCHY FOG
AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EXITING SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS ACROSS SW IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE MOISTURE TOP
OUT OF THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR BOTH RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE LONG VALLEY AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE. DRIER THURSDAY WITH A PACIFIC RIDGE OVER THE AREA. RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT WET CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR-IFR STRATUS AT KBNO AND KJER SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
22Z. IFR STRATUS SHOULD REBUILD AT KJER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT W/NW SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COULD KEEP FOG/STRATUS FROM
REFORMING IN SOUTHEAST OREGON.  FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS OF SW IDAHO. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS
THROUGH 10K FT MSL. PATCHY LIFR FOG TO RETURN SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....JDS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 312133
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
233 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FIRTS TROUGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL COME INLAND
BEGINNING SUNDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EVER-PRESENT
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA.  PCPN WILL BEGIN IN OUR
NRN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BULK OF IT SUNDAY EVENING IN
IDAHO ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  AFTER A SHORT BREAK MONDAY
MORNING A WETTER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING MORE PCPN MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO ALL ZONES.  TEMPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL CHANGE
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AND
MONDAY A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN.  POPS WILL BE CLOSE
TO MET MOS...AS MAV MOS CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY BIAS.  PATCHY FOG
AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EXITING SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS ACROSS SW IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE MOISTURE TOP
OUT OF THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR BOTH RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE LONG VALLEY AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE. DRIER THURSDAY WITH A PACIFIC RIDGE OVER THE AREA. RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT WET CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR-IFR STRATUS AT KBNO AND KJER SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
22Z. IFR STRATUS SHOULD REBUILD AT KJER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT W/NW SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COULD KEEP FOG/STRATUS FROM
REFORMING IN SOUTHEAST OREGON.  FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS OF SW IDAHO. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS
THROUGH 10K FT MSL. PATCHY LIFR FOG TO RETURN SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....JDS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 312133
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
233 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FIRTS TROUGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL COME INLAND
BEGINNING SUNDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EVER-PRESENT
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA.  PCPN WILL BEGIN IN OUR
NRN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BULK OF IT SUNDAY EVENING IN
IDAHO ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  AFTER A SHORT BREAK MONDAY
MORNING A WETTER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING MORE PCPN MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO ALL ZONES.  TEMPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL CHANGE
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AND
MONDAY A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN.  POPS WILL BE CLOSE
TO MET MOS...AS MAV MOS CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY BIAS.  PATCHY FOG
AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EXITING SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS ACROSS SW IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE MOISTURE TOP
OUT OF THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR BOTH RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE LONG VALLEY AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE. DRIER THURSDAY WITH A PACIFIC RIDGE OVER THE AREA. RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT WET CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR-IFR STRATUS AT KBNO AND KJER SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
22Z. IFR STRATUS SHOULD REBUILD AT KJER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT W/NW SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COULD KEEP FOG/STRATUS FROM
REFORMING IN SOUTHEAST OREGON.  FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS OF SW IDAHO. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS
THROUGH 10K FT MSL. PATCHY LIFR FOG TO RETURN SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....JDS




000
FXUS66 KPDT 311741
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
941 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS SUCH LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
EXPECT TO SEE BETTER CLEARING TODAY ABOVE 2500 FT MSL IN CENTRAL
OREGON DUE A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG TO HOLD OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN. THE WEAK SYSTEM WILL
CAUSE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OREGON
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. UPDATES THIS MORNING FOCUSED ON ADJUSTMENTS
TO FOG LOCATIONS, SKY COVER AND HIGH TEMPS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE ON THE
WEATHER PATTERN. THE ECMWF LIFTS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH
ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST A BIT TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN
TO RUN BUT ONLY WENT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT
COULD SEE POPS EVENTUALLY BEING RAISED TO LIKELY CATEGORY. BY LATE
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY A MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS
WITH REGARD TO TIMING ARE A BIT SKETCHY COULD SEE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND .5 TO 1 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS. COULD
ALSO BE WINDY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY
REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE LIKELY
WITH LCL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAFS SITES ESPECIALLY AT KPDT
AND KALW. ELSEWHERE LCL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH TAF
SITE KRDM MAY EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TODAY. AFT 02Z ALL
TAF SITES COULD EXPERIENCE AREAS OF MVFR AND LCL IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  31  42  36 /   0  10  30  40
ALW  39  33  41  38 /   0  10  40  40
PSC  41  32  42  36 /  10  10  30  30
YKM  38  32  39  31 /   0  10  30  30
HRI  41  32  43  36 /   0  10  30  30
ELN  38  30  40  31 /   0  10  40  40
RDM  50  28  50  34 /   0  10  30  30
LGD  46  27  42  34 /   0   0  40  50
GCD  45  25  46  32 /   0  10  30  50
DLS  43  35  45  39 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/78/97







000
FXUS66 KPDT 311741
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
941 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS SUCH LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
EXPECT TO SEE BETTER CLEARING TODAY ABOVE 2500 FT MSL IN CENTRAL
OREGON DUE A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG TO HOLD OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN. THE WEAK SYSTEM WILL
CAUSE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OREGON
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. UPDATES THIS MORNING FOCUSED ON ADJUSTMENTS
TO FOG LOCATIONS, SKY COVER AND HIGH TEMPS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE ON THE
WEATHER PATTERN. THE ECMWF LIFTS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH
ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST A BIT TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN
TO RUN BUT ONLY WENT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT
COULD SEE POPS EVENTUALLY BEING RAISED TO LIKELY CATEGORY. BY LATE
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY A MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS
WITH REGARD TO TIMING ARE A BIT SKETCHY COULD SEE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND .5 TO 1 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS. COULD
ALSO BE WINDY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY
REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE LIKELY
WITH LCL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAFS SITES ESPECIALLY AT KPDT
AND KALW. ELSEWHERE LCL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH TAF
SITE KRDM MAY EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TODAY. AFT 02Z ALL
TAF SITES COULD EXPERIENCE AREAS OF MVFR AND LCL IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  31  42  36 /   0  10  30  40
ALW  39  33  41  38 /   0  10  40  40
PSC  41  32  42  36 /  10  10  30  30
YKM  38  32  39  31 /   0  10  30  30
HRI  41  32  43  36 /   0  10  30  30
ELN  38  30  40  31 /   0  10  40  40
RDM  50  28  50  34 /   0  10  30  30
LGD  46  27  42  34 /   0   0  40  50
GCD  45  25  46  32 /   0  10  30  50
DLS  43  35  45  39 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/78/97








000
FXUS66 KMFR 311727
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
927 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
THE USUAL PLACES THIS MORNING. FOG WILL BE DENSE IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY FROM MEDFORD TO GRANS PASS AND INTO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY
THIS MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD BE LESS DENSE LATE THIS MORNING, BUT
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE. THEREFORE LEAVE YOURSELF
PLENTY OF ROOM AHEAD OF YOU WHILE DRIVING.

ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST OVER THE MARINE WATERS. THE FOG LAYER IS SHALLOW THIS
MORNING AND THE MORNING SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES A SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF AROUND NOON IN THE ROGUE VALLEY,
BUT IS LIKELY TO LINGER FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AROUND GRANTS
PASS...ILLINOIS VALLEY AND UMPQUA BASIN. THERE`S EVEN A CHANCE IT
MAY NOT BREAK OUT AT ALL IN GRANS PASS AND ROSEBURG. FOR NOW NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING, BUT WE`LL
MONITOR AND ADJUST THE FORECAST IF THERE`S EVIDENCE THE CLOUDS
WILL BURN OFF IN THOSE AREAS.

OUR NEXT FOCUS WILL BE THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS WEAK AND SHOULD BRING GENERALLY
LIGHT QPF. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN CASCADES, BUT
EVEN THEN WERE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...IFR AND LIFR CIGS ARE PRESENT IN THE ILLINOIS...ROGUE
AND UMPQUA BASIN. UNLIKE YESTERDAY THE CLOUD LAYER IS SHALLOWER
AND IT`S CLEAR IN ASHLAND. THEREFORE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO BREAK UP BETWEEN 20-21Z AT MEDFORD WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE. HOWEVER THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
PERSIST FOR MOST, IF NOT THE REST OF THE DAY IN GRANTS PASS AND
ROSEBURG. IFR/LIFR CIGS RETURN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME AREAS, BUT THERE`S A CHANCE IT COULD
BE LIMITED IF THERE`S SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 630 AM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2015... THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST
WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY BRINGING LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS...WITH MODERATE WEST SWELL BUILDING LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH INCREASED SOUTH
WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK A
STRONGER FRONT MAY BRING GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING FEATURES CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE WITH
MORNING VALLEY FOG AND FREEZING FOG...AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
OUTSIDE OF THE FOG. THE INVERSION IS A LITTLE MORE COMPRESSED THIS
MORNING...MEANING THE FOG LAYER IS THINNER AND SHOULD CLEAR OFF
EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST OF THE ROGUE VALLEY BUT THIS
SHALLOWER INVERSION IN IS YIELDING A THICKER...DENSE FOG IN THE
ILLINOIS...ROGUE...AND LIKELY APPLEGATE VALLEYS. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AT NPWMFR FOR THIS MORNING. TRAVELERS SHOULD USE
CAUTION THIS MORNING AND ALLOW FOR EXTRA TIME IN FOGGY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE ILLINOIS AND ROGUE VALLEY AROUND MEDFORD WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING AND SOME ROAD SURFACES COULD
BECOME SLIPPERY IN THE FREEZING FOG. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE AIR
STAGNATION ADVISORY AT NPWMFR CONTINUES FOR ONE MORE DAY IN MOST
WEST AND EAST SIDE VALLEYS. GRANTS PASS AND THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PLACES WHERE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR FOR JUST A SHORT
TIME THIS AFTERNOON...OR NOT AT ALL...BEFORE RETURNING TONIGHT.
WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.
BROOKINGS IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 70 DEGREES TODAY. RIDGETOP
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING IN THE COAST RANGE ARE IN THE UPPER
40S...WHILE UNDER THE INVERSION TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW OR NEAR
FREEZING.

SUNDAY WON`T FEATURE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BUT
REPRESENTS A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OF THE PAST FEW
WEEKS. THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE
REGION WILL BEGIN TO BUCKLE AND ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS IS JUST THE FIRST RAIN CHANCE OF MANY
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OPENS
THE DOOR TO SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

ON MONDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE ITSELF OVER SOUTHERN OREGON
OR EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO
MOST OF THE CWA.  HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY SAGS WILL MAINLY
DICTATE WHERE THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE...AND HOW
LOW SNOW LEVELS GET. THE GFS40 SUGGESTS THE LOWEST SNOW LEVELS WHILE
THE EC HAS WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST FORECAST RELFECTS A
BLEND...WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOUT 7000 TO 7500 FEET MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WINDY AND WET FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES
AIM AT THE WEST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND PERHAPS MORE BOUTS OF
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A HIGH-IMPACT EVENT...BUT GEFS IVT TOOLS
ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A ONCE IN 10-YEAR SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE IMPACTING THE COAST ON FRIDAY. TRENDS ARE SHOWING
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IN SUMMARY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
UPCOMING WET WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS EVENT.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ024-026-620-622.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 311727
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
927 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
THE USUAL PLACES THIS MORNING. FOG WILL BE DENSE IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY FROM MEDFORD TO GRANS PASS AND INTO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY
THIS MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD BE LESS DENSE LATE THIS MORNING, BUT
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE. THEREFORE LEAVE YOURSELF
PLENTY OF ROOM AHEAD OF YOU WHILE DRIVING.

ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST OVER THE MARINE WATERS. THE FOG LAYER IS SHALLOW THIS
MORNING AND THE MORNING SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES A SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF AROUND NOON IN THE ROGUE VALLEY,
BUT IS LIKELY TO LINGER FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AROUND GRANTS
PASS...ILLINOIS VALLEY AND UMPQUA BASIN. THERE`S EVEN A CHANCE IT
MAY NOT BREAK OUT AT ALL IN GRANS PASS AND ROSEBURG. FOR NOW NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING, BUT WE`LL
MONITOR AND ADJUST THE FORECAST IF THERE`S EVIDENCE THE CLOUDS
WILL BURN OFF IN THOSE AREAS.

OUR NEXT FOCUS WILL BE THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS WEAK AND SHOULD BRING GENERALLY
LIGHT QPF. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN CASCADES, BUT
EVEN THEN WERE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...IFR AND LIFR CIGS ARE PRESENT IN THE ILLINOIS...ROGUE
AND UMPQUA BASIN. UNLIKE YESTERDAY THE CLOUD LAYER IS SHALLOWER
AND IT`S CLEAR IN ASHLAND. THEREFORE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO BREAK UP BETWEEN 20-21Z AT MEDFORD WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE. HOWEVER THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
PERSIST FOR MOST, IF NOT THE REST OF THE DAY IN GRANTS PASS AND
ROSEBURG. IFR/LIFR CIGS RETURN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME AREAS, BUT THERE`S A CHANCE IT COULD
BE LIMITED IF THERE`S SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 630 AM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2015... THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST
WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY BRINGING LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS...WITH MODERATE WEST SWELL BUILDING LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH INCREASED SOUTH
WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK A
STRONGER FRONT MAY BRING GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING FEATURES CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE WITH
MORNING VALLEY FOG AND FREEZING FOG...AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
OUTSIDE OF THE FOG. THE INVERSION IS A LITTLE MORE COMPRESSED THIS
MORNING...MEANING THE FOG LAYER IS THINNER AND SHOULD CLEAR OFF
EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST OF THE ROGUE VALLEY BUT THIS
SHALLOWER INVERSION IN IS YIELDING A THICKER...DENSE FOG IN THE
ILLINOIS...ROGUE...AND LIKELY APPLEGATE VALLEYS. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AT NPWMFR FOR THIS MORNING. TRAVELERS SHOULD USE
CAUTION THIS MORNING AND ALLOW FOR EXTRA TIME IN FOGGY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE ILLINOIS AND ROGUE VALLEY AROUND MEDFORD WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING AND SOME ROAD SURFACES COULD
BECOME SLIPPERY IN THE FREEZING FOG. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE AIR
STAGNATION ADVISORY AT NPWMFR CONTINUES FOR ONE MORE DAY IN MOST
WEST AND EAST SIDE VALLEYS. GRANTS PASS AND THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PLACES WHERE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR FOR JUST A SHORT
TIME THIS AFTERNOON...OR NOT AT ALL...BEFORE RETURNING TONIGHT.
WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.
BROOKINGS IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 70 DEGREES TODAY. RIDGETOP
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING IN THE COAST RANGE ARE IN THE UPPER
40S...WHILE UNDER THE INVERSION TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW OR NEAR
FREEZING.

SUNDAY WON`T FEATURE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BUT
REPRESENTS A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OF THE PAST FEW
WEEKS. THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE
REGION WILL BEGIN TO BUCKLE AND ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS IS JUST THE FIRST RAIN CHANCE OF MANY
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OPENS
THE DOOR TO SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

ON MONDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE ITSELF OVER SOUTHERN OREGON
OR EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO
MOST OF THE CWA.  HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY SAGS WILL MAINLY
DICTATE WHERE THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE...AND HOW
LOW SNOW LEVELS GET. THE GFS40 SUGGESTS THE LOWEST SNOW LEVELS WHILE
THE EC HAS WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST FORECAST RELFECTS A
BLEND...WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOUT 7000 TO 7500 FEET MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WINDY AND WET FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES
AIM AT THE WEST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND PERHAPS MORE BOUTS OF
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A HIGH-IMPACT EVENT...BUT GEFS IVT TOOLS
ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A ONCE IN 10-YEAR SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE IMPACTING THE COAST ON FRIDAY. TRENDS ARE SHOWING
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IN SUMMARY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
UPCOMING WET WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS EVENT.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ024-026-620-622.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 311727
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
927 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
THE USUAL PLACES THIS MORNING. FOG WILL BE DENSE IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY FROM MEDFORD TO GRANS PASS AND INTO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY
THIS MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD BE LESS DENSE LATE THIS MORNING, BUT
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE. THEREFORE LEAVE YOURSELF
PLENTY OF ROOM AHEAD OF YOU WHILE DRIVING.

ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST OVER THE MARINE WATERS. THE FOG LAYER IS SHALLOW THIS
MORNING AND THE MORNING SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES A SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF AROUND NOON IN THE ROGUE VALLEY,
BUT IS LIKELY TO LINGER FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AROUND GRANTS
PASS...ILLINOIS VALLEY AND UMPQUA BASIN. THERE`S EVEN A CHANCE IT
MAY NOT BREAK OUT AT ALL IN GRANS PASS AND ROSEBURG. FOR NOW NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING, BUT WE`LL
MONITOR AND ADJUST THE FORECAST IF THERE`S EVIDENCE THE CLOUDS
WILL BURN OFF IN THOSE AREAS.

OUR NEXT FOCUS WILL BE THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS WEAK AND SHOULD BRING GENERALLY
LIGHT QPF. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN CASCADES, BUT
EVEN THEN WERE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...IFR AND LIFR CIGS ARE PRESENT IN THE ILLINOIS...ROGUE
AND UMPQUA BASIN. UNLIKE YESTERDAY THE CLOUD LAYER IS SHALLOWER
AND IT`S CLEAR IN ASHLAND. THEREFORE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO BREAK UP BETWEEN 20-21Z AT MEDFORD WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE. HOWEVER THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
PERSIST FOR MOST, IF NOT THE REST OF THE DAY IN GRANTS PASS AND
ROSEBURG. IFR/LIFR CIGS RETURN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME AREAS, BUT THERE`S A CHANCE IT COULD
BE LIMITED IF THERE`S SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 630 AM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2015... THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST
WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY BRINGING LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS...WITH MODERATE WEST SWELL BUILDING LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH INCREASED SOUTH
WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK A
STRONGER FRONT MAY BRING GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING FEATURES CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE WITH
MORNING VALLEY FOG AND FREEZING FOG...AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
OUTSIDE OF THE FOG. THE INVERSION IS A LITTLE MORE COMPRESSED THIS
MORNING...MEANING THE FOG LAYER IS THINNER AND SHOULD CLEAR OFF
EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST OF THE ROGUE VALLEY BUT THIS
SHALLOWER INVERSION IN IS YIELDING A THICKER...DENSE FOG IN THE
ILLINOIS...ROGUE...AND LIKELY APPLEGATE VALLEYS. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AT NPWMFR FOR THIS MORNING. TRAVELERS SHOULD USE
CAUTION THIS MORNING AND ALLOW FOR EXTRA TIME IN FOGGY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE ILLINOIS AND ROGUE VALLEY AROUND MEDFORD WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING AND SOME ROAD SURFACES COULD
BECOME SLIPPERY IN THE FREEZING FOG. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE AIR
STAGNATION ADVISORY AT NPWMFR CONTINUES FOR ONE MORE DAY IN MOST
WEST AND EAST SIDE VALLEYS. GRANTS PASS AND THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PLACES WHERE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR FOR JUST A SHORT
TIME THIS AFTERNOON...OR NOT AT ALL...BEFORE RETURNING TONIGHT.
WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.
BROOKINGS IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 70 DEGREES TODAY. RIDGETOP
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING IN THE COAST RANGE ARE IN THE UPPER
40S...WHILE UNDER THE INVERSION TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW OR NEAR
FREEZING.

SUNDAY WON`T FEATURE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BUT
REPRESENTS A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OF THE PAST FEW
WEEKS. THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE
REGION WILL BEGIN TO BUCKLE AND ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS IS JUST THE FIRST RAIN CHANCE OF MANY
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OPENS
THE DOOR TO SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

ON MONDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE ITSELF OVER SOUTHERN OREGON
OR EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO
MOST OF THE CWA.  HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY SAGS WILL MAINLY
DICTATE WHERE THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE...AND HOW
LOW SNOW LEVELS GET. THE GFS40 SUGGESTS THE LOWEST SNOW LEVELS WHILE
THE EC HAS WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST FORECAST RELFECTS A
BLEND...WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOUT 7000 TO 7500 FEET MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WINDY AND WET FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES
AIM AT THE WEST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND PERHAPS MORE BOUTS OF
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A HIGH-IMPACT EVENT...BUT GEFS IVT TOOLS
ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A ONCE IN 10-YEAR SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE IMPACTING THE COAST ON FRIDAY. TRENDS ARE SHOWING
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IN SUMMARY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
UPCOMING WET WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS EVENT.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ024-026-620-622.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 311727
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
927 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
THE USUAL PLACES THIS MORNING. FOG WILL BE DENSE IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY FROM MEDFORD TO GRANS PASS AND INTO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY
THIS MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD BE LESS DENSE LATE THIS MORNING, BUT
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE. THEREFORE LEAVE YOURSELF
PLENTY OF ROOM AHEAD OF YOU WHILE DRIVING.

ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST OVER THE MARINE WATERS. THE FOG LAYER IS SHALLOW THIS
MORNING AND THE MORNING SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES A SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF AROUND NOON IN THE ROGUE VALLEY,
BUT IS LIKELY TO LINGER FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AROUND GRANTS
PASS...ILLINOIS VALLEY AND UMPQUA BASIN. THERE`S EVEN A CHANCE IT
MAY NOT BREAK OUT AT ALL IN GRANS PASS AND ROSEBURG. FOR NOW NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING, BUT WE`LL
MONITOR AND ADJUST THE FORECAST IF THERE`S EVIDENCE THE CLOUDS
WILL BURN OFF IN THOSE AREAS.

OUR NEXT FOCUS WILL BE THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS WEAK AND SHOULD BRING GENERALLY
LIGHT QPF. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN CASCADES, BUT
EVEN THEN WERE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...IFR AND LIFR CIGS ARE PRESENT IN THE ILLINOIS...ROGUE
AND UMPQUA BASIN. UNLIKE YESTERDAY THE CLOUD LAYER IS SHALLOWER
AND IT`S CLEAR IN ASHLAND. THEREFORE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO BREAK UP BETWEEN 20-21Z AT MEDFORD WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE. HOWEVER THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
PERSIST FOR MOST, IF NOT THE REST OF THE DAY IN GRANTS PASS AND
ROSEBURG. IFR/LIFR CIGS RETURN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME AREAS, BUT THERE`S A CHANCE IT COULD
BE LIMITED IF THERE`S SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 630 AM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2015... THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST
WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY BRINGING LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS...WITH MODERATE WEST SWELL BUILDING LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH INCREASED SOUTH
WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK A
STRONGER FRONT MAY BRING GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING FEATURES CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE WITH
MORNING VALLEY FOG AND FREEZING FOG...AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
OUTSIDE OF THE FOG. THE INVERSION IS A LITTLE MORE COMPRESSED THIS
MORNING...MEANING THE FOG LAYER IS THINNER AND SHOULD CLEAR OFF
EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST OF THE ROGUE VALLEY BUT THIS
SHALLOWER INVERSION IN IS YIELDING A THICKER...DENSE FOG IN THE
ILLINOIS...ROGUE...AND LIKELY APPLEGATE VALLEYS. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AT NPWMFR FOR THIS MORNING. TRAVELERS SHOULD USE
CAUTION THIS MORNING AND ALLOW FOR EXTRA TIME IN FOGGY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE ILLINOIS AND ROGUE VALLEY AROUND MEDFORD WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING AND SOME ROAD SURFACES COULD
BECOME SLIPPERY IN THE FREEZING FOG. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE AIR
STAGNATION ADVISORY AT NPWMFR CONTINUES FOR ONE MORE DAY IN MOST
WEST AND EAST SIDE VALLEYS. GRANTS PASS AND THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PLACES WHERE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR FOR JUST A SHORT
TIME THIS AFTERNOON...OR NOT AT ALL...BEFORE RETURNING TONIGHT.
WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.
BROOKINGS IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 70 DEGREES TODAY. RIDGETOP
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING IN THE COAST RANGE ARE IN THE UPPER
40S...WHILE UNDER THE INVERSION TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW OR NEAR
FREEZING.

SUNDAY WON`T FEATURE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BUT
REPRESENTS A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OF THE PAST FEW
WEEKS. THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE
REGION WILL BEGIN TO BUCKLE AND ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS IS JUST THE FIRST RAIN CHANCE OF MANY
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OPENS
THE DOOR TO SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

ON MONDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE ITSELF OVER SOUTHERN OREGON
OR EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO
MOST OF THE CWA.  HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY SAGS WILL MAINLY
DICTATE WHERE THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE...AND HOW
LOW SNOW LEVELS GET. THE GFS40 SUGGESTS THE LOWEST SNOW LEVELS WHILE
THE EC HAS WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST FORECAST RELFECTS A
BLEND...WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOUT 7000 TO 7500 FEET MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WINDY AND WET FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES
AIM AT THE WEST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND PERHAPS MORE BOUTS OF
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A HIGH-IMPACT EVENT...BUT GEFS IVT TOOLS
ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A ONCE IN 10-YEAR SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE IMPACTING THE COAST ON FRIDAY. TRENDS ARE SHOWING
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IN SUMMARY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
UPCOMING WET WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS EVENT.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ024-026-620-622.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KPQR 311639
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
838 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER SW
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS
IS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT
CASCADE PASS LEVEL APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE MORNING UPDATE AS
THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THERE IS SHALLOW FOG IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH VISIBILITIES BOUNCING BETWEEN A HALF OF A
MILE AND A QUARTER OF A MILE IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH OTHER LOCATIONS
HAVING UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. THE MORNING FOG IS HANDLED WELL WITH
THE CURRENT NOW FORECASTS. THE EASTERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
INCREASED A LITTLE THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THIS MORNING. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE GORGE WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH LATER THIS MORNING AND UP TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL HELP CLEAR OUT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOR THE NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. A PATTERN CHANGE TO WETTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY. A SERIES OF STORMS THAT WILL BE INCREASINGLY WETTER WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH...IF AT
ALL...TO THE LOCAL SNOW PACK. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERSISTENCE LOOKS LIKE
THE WAY TO GO TODAY. SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY AS OF 0930Z SHOWED
CONSIDERABLE FOG IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA
AROUND KKLS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO. KTTD-KDLS
GRADIENT WAS A MEAGER -2.3 MB AT 10Z...PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 3-HR FCST
OFF THE 06Z NAM. THE NAM DOES INCREASE THE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON TO
-5 TO -6 MB BY 21Z. MODEL 850 MB TEMPS DO NOT SHOW ANY APPRECIABLE
CHANGE TODAY COMPARED TO FRI SO WENT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE TEMPS FOR
MOST AREAS. NAM MAINTAINS SOLID STRATUS IN THE GORGE TO AROUND KCZK.
NAM CROSS-SECTION FROM KAST THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE SHOWS
INCREASING HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER 03Z SUN. THIS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT
ON FOG FORMATION...BUT SUSPECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY WILL SEE THE FOG RETURN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
BEGINNING SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE SAT NIGHT
THEN INLAND SUN. MODELS SEEM TO FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS. MODEL QPF WITH THIS ONE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
MOUNTAINS NOT GOING TO GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF NEEDED SNOWFALL AS SNOW
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 5K FEET. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON. GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON THE
QPF...WITH A CORE OF OVER AN INCH IN 6 HRS ON THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST MON MORNING. WENT MORE WITH THE ECMWF QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MAYBE
UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN 6 HRS FOR THE COAST MON MORNING. FAIRLY DECENT
850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW INTO THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES 18Z MON
THROUGH 00Z TUE. UNFORTUNATELY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THIS
WINTER...SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. SLIGHTLY
LOWER SNOW LEVELS FOR THE S WA CASCADES MON WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 540 DM...BUT SNOW LEVELS LIKELY TO BE A BIT
LOWER DUE TO SOME DEGREE OF EAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WEISHAAR

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A WARM FRONT AND
ATTEMPT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT IT NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH
TIME SETTLING ON WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL FORM AND HOW WET IT WILL BE.
IT WILL LIKELY FORM SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON OR EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN LIFT NORTH AROUND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
BROAD BRUSHED THE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
PROBLEMS. THE NEXT RATHER MATURE AND DECENTLY STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF RATHER WET FRONTS
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND NEXT WEEK IS
TOWARD A WETTER MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THIS POINT...OTHER THAN A
COUPLE OF BRIEF DIPS...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND THESE
SYSTEMS WILL NOT LIKELY ADD MUCH IF ANYTHING TO THE DEFICIENT SNOW
PACK IN THE CASCADES. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...LIFR VALLEY FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z
TODAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW SPOTS REPORTING FZFG AS
TEMPS HOVER JUST BELOW OR RIGHT AROUND 32 DEG. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS TONIGHT. COASTAL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR TODAY...WITH SOME PATCHY SHALLOW IFR FOG
THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD IMPACT THE SW WA/FAR
NW OR COASTS EARLY SUN MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LIFR FOG WITH CIGS AROUND 200 FT WILL LINGER
THROUGH 19Z-21Z THIS MORNING BEFORE CLEARING TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING EAST WINDS WILL IMPACT KTTD AND KPDX AFTER
21Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS BETWEEN
5K-10K FT. /27
&&

.MARINE...A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ON THE MENU FOR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER
FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FIRST FRONT ON
SUNDAY BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS
ABOVE 20 KTS WHILE BRINGING SEAS UP TO AROUND 8 FT. THE SECOND
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...BRINGING SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KTS LIKELY. STRONG WINDS
WILL RAMP UP EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
UNTIL WINDS EASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SEAS UP TO AROUND 12 TO 13
FT ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING
SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT. -MCCOY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 311639
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
838 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER SW
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS
IS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT
CASCADE PASS LEVEL APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE MORNING UPDATE AS
THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THERE IS SHALLOW FOG IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH VISIBILITIES BOUNCING BETWEEN A HALF OF A
MILE AND A QUARTER OF A MILE IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH OTHER LOCATIONS
HAVING UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. THE MORNING FOG IS HANDLED WELL WITH
THE CURRENT NOW FORECASTS. THE EASTERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
INCREASED A LITTLE THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THIS MORNING. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE GORGE WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH LATER THIS MORNING AND UP TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL HELP CLEAR OUT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOR THE NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. A PATTERN CHANGE TO WETTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY. A SERIES OF STORMS THAT WILL BE INCREASINGLY WETTER WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH...IF AT
ALL...TO THE LOCAL SNOW PACK. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERSISTENCE LOOKS LIKE
THE WAY TO GO TODAY. SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY AS OF 0930Z SHOWED
CONSIDERABLE FOG IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA
AROUND KKLS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO. KTTD-KDLS
GRADIENT WAS A MEAGER -2.3 MB AT 10Z...PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 3-HR FCST
OFF THE 06Z NAM. THE NAM DOES INCREASE THE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON TO
-5 TO -6 MB BY 21Z. MODEL 850 MB TEMPS DO NOT SHOW ANY APPRECIABLE
CHANGE TODAY COMPARED TO FRI SO WENT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE TEMPS FOR
MOST AREAS. NAM MAINTAINS SOLID STRATUS IN THE GORGE TO AROUND KCZK.
NAM CROSS-SECTION FROM KAST THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE SHOWS
INCREASING HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER 03Z SUN. THIS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT
ON FOG FORMATION...BUT SUSPECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY WILL SEE THE FOG RETURN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
BEGINNING SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE SAT NIGHT
THEN INLAND SUN. MODELS SEEM TO FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS. MODEL QPF WITH THIS ONE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
MOUNTAINS NOT GOING TO GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF NEEDED SNOWFALL AS SNOW
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 5K FEET. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON. GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON THE
QPF...WITH A CORE OF OVER AN INCH IN 6 HRS ON THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST MON MORNING. WENT MORE WITH THE ECMWF QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MAYBE
UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN 6 HRS FOR THE COAST MON MORNING. FAIRLY DECENT
850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW INTO THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES 18Z MON
THROUGH 00Z TUE. UNFORTUNATELY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THIS
WINTER...SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. SLIGHTLY
LOWER SNOW LEVELS FOR THE S WA CASCADES MON WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 540 DM...BUT SNOW LEVELS LIKELY TO BE A BIT
LOWER DUE TO SOME DEGREE OF EAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WEISHAAR

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A WARM FRONT AND
ATTEMPT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT IT NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH
TIME SETTLING ON WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL FORM AND HOW WET IT WILL BE.
IT WILL LIKELY FORM SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON OR EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN LIFT NORTH AROUND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
BROAD BRUSHED THE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
PROBLEMS. THE NEXT RATHER MATURE AND DECENTLY STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF RATHER WET FRONTS
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND NEXT WEEK IS
TOWARD A WETTER MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THIS POINT...OTHER THAN A
COUPLE OF BRIEF DIPS...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND THESE
SYSTEMS WILL NOT LIKELY ADD MUCH IF ANYTHING TO THE DEFICIENT SNOW
PACK IN THE CASCADES. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...LIFR VALLEY FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z
TODAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW SPOTS REPORTING FZFG AS
TEMPS HOVER JUST BELOW OR RIGHT AROUND 32 DEG. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS TONIGHT. COASTAL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR TODAY...WITH SOME PATCHY SHALLOW IFR FOG
THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD IMPACT THE SW WA/FAR
NW OR COASTS EARLY SUN MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LIFR FOG WITH CIGS AROUND 200 FT WILL LINGER
THROUGH 19Z-21Z THIS MORNING BEFORE CLEARING TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING EAST WINDS WILL IMPACT KTTD AND KPDX AFTER
21Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS BETWEEN
5K-10K FT. /27
&&

.MARINE...A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ON THE MENU FOR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER
FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FIRST FRONT ON
SUNDAY BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS
ABOVE 20 KTS WHILE BRINGING SEAS UP TO AROUND 8 FT. THE SECOND
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...BRINGING SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KTS LIKELY. STRONG WINDS
WILL RAMP UP EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
UNTIL WINDS EASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SEAS UP TO AROUND 12 TO 13
FT ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING
SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT. -MCCOY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 311600
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
900 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE SNAKE BASIN IS FOG-FREE THIS MORNING
BUT PATCHES OF DENSE FOG EXIST NEAR MOUNTAIN HOME AND WEST OF
BOISE.  DENSE FOG IS NOT EXTENSIVE ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.
STRATUS COVERS PARTS OF THE MAGIC VALLEY.  ABOVE THE VALLEYS SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AND SUNNY WX IS EXPECTED ALL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT REMAINS STRONG.  ON SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...LEADING TO RAIN
AND SNOW IN NRN MOUNTAINS AND A CHANCE IN SRN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AS ALREADY FORECAST.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR-IFR FOG AT KBNO AND EXPECTED IN SPOTS FROM KEUL
THROUGH KMUO. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT KBOI THIS MORNING. FOG AND IFR
STRATUS AT KJER LIKELY TO PERSIST UNTIL 19Z TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT W/NW SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL. PATCHY LIFR FOG
LIKELY TO RETURN SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...INVERSION AND HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE/ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY. INVERSION IN A SOMEWHAT DRY
AIRMASS /PW IN THE 10-20TH PERCENTILE/ WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ALLOW FOR LIMITED STRATUS AND PATCHY
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. STRATUS AT 3 AM WAS ACROSS MUCH OF S
CENTRAL IDAHO...SW OWYHEE COUNTY AND IN PATCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
HARNEY AND NORTH BAKER COUNTIES. THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR SNOW LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS /RAIN BELOW 4K
FT MSL/ AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM
BANNER SUMMIT TO BOGUS BASIN THROUGH CAMBRIDGE TO BURNS /AS WELL
AS STEENS MTN/. WITH HALF-INCH PWS FORECAST BY THE GFS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS MAY INCREASE AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER
BUT FOR NOW KEPT QPF LIGHT AROUND 0.06 INCHES /OR AN INCH OF SNOW/
MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK - BRINGING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE WETTEST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW IS ENHANCED BY
AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE LONG VALLEY AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. DRIER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDS INLAND...CUTTING
OFF THE MOISTURE SUPPLY TO OREGON/IDAHO. RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE TO TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT WET CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN/ FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....MT
AVIATION.....MT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 311600
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
900 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE SNAKE BASIN IS FOG-FREE THIS MORNING
BUT PATCHES OF DENSE FOG EXIST NEAR MOUNTAIN HOME AND WEST OF
BOISE.  DENSE FOG IS NOT EXTENSIVE ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.
STRATUS COVERS PARTS OF THE MAGIC VALLEY.  ABOVE THE VALLEYS SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AND SUNNY WX IS EXPECTED ALL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT REMAINS STRONG.  ON SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...LEADING TO RAIN
AND SNOW IN NRN MOUNTAINS AND A CHANCE IN SRN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AS ALREADY FORECAST.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR-IFR FOG AT KBNO AND EXPECTED IN SPOTS FROM KEUL
THROUGH KMUO. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT KBOI THIS MORNING. FOG AND IFR
STRATUS AT KJER LIKELY TO PERSIST UNTIL 19Z TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT W/NW SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL. PATCHY LIFR FOG
LIKELY TO RETURN SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...INVERSION AND HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE/ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY. INVERSION IN A SOMEWHAT DRY
AIRMASS /PW IN THE 10-20TH PERCENTILE/ WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ALLOW FOR LIMITED STRATUS AND PATCHY
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. STRATUS AT 3 AM WAS ACROSS MUCH OF S
CENTRAL IDAHO...SW OWYHEE COUNTY AND IN PATCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
HARNEY AND NORTH BAKER COUNTIES. THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR SNOW LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS /RAIN BELOW 4K
FT MSL/ AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM
BANNER SUMMIT TO BOGUS BASIN THROUGH CAMBRIDGE TO BURNS /AS WELL
AS STEENS MTN/. WITH HALF-INCH PWS FORECAST BY THE GFS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS MAY INCREASE AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER
BUT FOR NOW KEPT QPF LIGHT AROUND 0.06 INCHES /OR AN INCH OF SNOW/
MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK - BRINGING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE WETTEST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW IS ENHANCED BY
AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE LONG VALLEY AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. DRIER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDS INLAND...CUTTING
OFF THE MOISTURE SUPPLY TO OREGON/IDAHO. RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE TO TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT WET CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN/ FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....MT
AVIATION.....MT




000
FXUS66 KMFR 311139
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
339 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING FEATURES CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE WITH
MORNING VALLEY FOG AND FREEZING FOG...AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
OUTSIDE OF THE FOG. THE INVERSION IS A LITTLE MORE COMPRESSED THIS
MORNING...MEANING THE FOG LAYER IS THINNER AND SHOULD CLEAR OFF
EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST OF THE ROGUE VALLEY BUT THIS
SHALLOWER INVERSION IN IS YIELDING A THICKER...DENSE FOG IN THE
ILLINOIS...ROGUE...AND LIKELY APPLEGATE VALLEYS. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AT NPWMFR FOR THIS MORNING. TRAVELERS SHOULD USE
CAUTION THIS MORNING AND ALLOW FOR EXTRA TIME IN FOGGY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE ILLINOIS AND ROGUE VALLEY AROUND MEDFORD WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING AND SOME ROAD SURFACES COULD
BECOME SLIPPERY IN THE FREEZING FOG. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE AIR
STAGNATION ADVISORY AT NPWMFR CONTINUES FOR ONE MORE DAY IN MOST
WEST AND EAST SIDE VALLEYS. GRANTS PASS AND THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PLACES WHERE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR FOR JUST A SHORT
TIME THIS AFTERNOON...OR NOT AT ALL...BEFORE RETURNING TONIGHT.
WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.
BROOKINGS IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 70 DEGREES TODAY. RIDGETOP
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING IN THE COAST RANGE ARE IN THE UPPER
40S...WHILE UNDER THE INVERSION TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW OR NEAR
FREEZING.

SUNDAY WON`T FEATURE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BUT
REPRESENTS A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OF THE PAST FEW
WEEKS. THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE
REGION WILL BEGIN TO BUCKLE AND ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS IS JUST THE FIRST RAIN CHANCE OF MANY
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OPENS
THE DOOR TO SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

ON MONDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE ITSELF OVER SOUTHERN OREGON
OR EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO
MOST OF THE CWA.  HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY SAGS WILL MAINLY
DICTATE WHERE THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE...AND HOW
LOW SNOW LEVELS GET. THE GFS40 SUGGESTS THE LOWEST SNOW LEVELS WHILE
THE EC HAS WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST FORECAST RELFECTS A
BLEND...WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOUT 7000 TO 7500 FEET MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WINDY AND WET FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES
AIM AT THE WEST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND PERHAPS MORE BOUTS OF
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A HIGH-IMPACT EVENT...BUT GEFS IVT TOOLS
ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A ONCE IN 10-YEAR SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE IMPACTING THE COAST ON FRIDAY. TRENDS ARE SHOWING
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IN SUMMARY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
UPCOMING WET WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 31/06Z TAF CYCLE...WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL
CONTINUE IN IFR TO LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/FREEZING FOG THIS
MORNING, PERSISTING THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING BETWEEN
18Z AND 21Z. LATEST CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN GRANTS PASS WITH
EARLIEST CLEARING IN MEDFORD. EXPECT CLEARING TO BE FASTER
TOMORROW DUE TO A LOWER INVERSION AND FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORY.
AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR LOW CLOUDS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
IMPACT FAR NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND LAKE COUNTY NORTH AND EAST
OF LAKEVIEW TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, VFR PREVAILS, INCLUDING THE COAST
AND 5 NM FROM SHORE. SVEN


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2015...A
THERMAL TROUGH AND HIGH WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE WATERS ON SUNDAY BRINGING WEAK
SOUTH WINDS...WITH MODERATE WEST SWELL BUILDING LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL FRONTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH GALES POSSIBLE BEGINNING THURSDAY. SVEN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ376.

$$

NSK/NSK/SBN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 311139
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
339 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING FEATURES CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE WITH
MORNING VALLEY FOG AND FREEZING FOG...AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
OUTSIDE OF THE FOG. THE INVERSION IS A LITTLE MORE COMPRESSED THIS
MORNING...MEANING THE FOG LAYER IS THINNER AND SHOULD CLEAR OFF
EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST OF THE ROGUE VALLEY BUT THIS
SHALLOWER INVERSION IN IS YIELDING A THICKER...DENSE FOG IN THE
ILLINOIS...ROGUE...AND LIKELY APPLEGATE VALLEYS. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AT NPWMFR FOR THIS MORNING. TRAVELERS SHOULD USE
CAUTION THIS MORNING AND ALLOW FOR EXTRA TIME IN FOGGY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE ILLINOIS AND ROGUE VALLEY AROUND MEDFORD WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING AND SOME ROAD SURFACES COULD
BECOME SLIPPERY IN THE FREEZING FOG. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE AIR
STAGNATION ADVISORY AT NPWMFR CONTINUES FOR ONE MORE DAY IN MOST
WEST AND EAST SIDE VALLEYS. GRANTS PASS AND THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PLACES WHERE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR FOR JUST A SHORT
TIME THIS AFTERNOON...OR NOT AT ALL...BEFORE RETURNING TONIGHT.
WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.
BROOKINGS IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 70 DEGREES TODAY. RIDGETOP
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING IN THE COAST RANGE ARE IN THE UPPER
40S...WHILE UNDER THE INVERSION TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW OR NEAR
FREEZING.

SUNDAY WON`T FEATURE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BUT
REPRESENTS A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OF THE PAST FEW
WEEKS. THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE
REGION WILL BEGIN TO BUCKLE AND ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS IS JUST THE FIRST RAIN CHANCE OF MANY
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OPENS
THE DOOR TO SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

ON MONDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE ITSELF OVER SOUTHERN OREGON
OR EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO
MOST OF THE CWA.  HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY SAGS WILL MAINLY
DICTATE WHERE THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE...AND HOW
LOW SNOW LEVELS GET. THE GFS40 SUGGESTS THE LOWEST SNOW LEVELS WHILE
THE EC HAS WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST FORECAST RELFECTS A
BLEND...WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOUT 7000 TO 7500 FEET MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WINDY AND WET FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES
AIM AT THE WEST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND PERHAPS MORE BOUTS OF
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A HIGH-IMPACT EVENT...BUT GEFS IVT TOOLS
ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A ONCE IN 10-YEAR SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE IMPACTING THE COAST ON FRIDAY. TRENDS ARE SHOWING
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IN SUMMARY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
UPCOMING WET WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 31/06Z TAF CYCLE...WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL
CONTINUE IN IFR TO LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/FREEZING FOG THIS
MORNING, PERSISTING THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING BETWEEN
18Z AND 21Z. LATEST CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN GRANTS PASS WITH
EARLIEST CLEARING IN MEDFORD. EXPECT CLEARING TO BE FASTER
TOMORROW DUE TO A LOWER INVERSION AND FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORY.
AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR LOW CLOUDS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
IMPACT FAR NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND LAKE COUNTY NORTH AND EAST
OF LAKEVIEW TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, VFR PREVAILS, INCLUDING THE COAST
AND 5 NM FROM SHORE. SVEN


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2015...A
THERMAL TROUGH AND HIGH WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE WATERS ON SUNDAY BRINGING WEAK
SOUTH WINDS...WITH MODERATE WEST SWELL BUILDING LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL FRONTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH GALES POSSIBLE BEGINNING THURSDAY. SVEN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ376.

$$

NSK/NSK/SBN



000
FXUS66 KPDT 311059
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD STRATUS FROM
THE COLUMBIA BASIN INTO CENTRAL OREGON. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLUMBIA BASIN
AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY. A LITTLE MIXING OF THE
AIRMASS BELOW THE INVERSION THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS LIFTED THE STRATUS
RESULTING IN MUCH LESS FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS FRONT AND
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD ELIMINATE THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AND STRATUS CLOUDS BY EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. 94

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF
DISAGREE ON THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE ECMWF LIFTS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY. HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST A BIT TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN BUT ONLY WENT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. IF THE
ECMWF IS CORRECT COULD SEE POPS EVENTUALLY BEING RAISED TO LIKELY
CATEGORY. BY LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY A MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING SEVERAL PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS WITH REGARD TO TIMING ARE A BIT SKETCHY COULD
SEE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND .5 TO 1 INCHES OF RAIN
IN THE LOWLANDS. COULD ALSO BE WINDY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. CIGS WILL TEND TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN LIFT SOME THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG BUT
NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EXCEPT AT KBDN WHERE STRATUS
DECK IS INTERSECTING THE TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT N-NE. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  31  42  36 /   0  10  30  40
ALW  40  33  41  38 /   0  10  40  40
PSC  42  32  42  36 /  10  10  30  30
YKM  41  32  39  31 /   0  10  30  30
HRI  41  32  43  36 /   0  10  30  30
ELN  41  30  40  31 /   0  10  40  40
RDM  49  28  50  34 /   0  10  30  30
LGD  46  27  42  34 /   0   0  40  50
GCD  45  25  46  32 /   0  10  30  50
DLS  43  35  45  39 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/78/78









000
FXUS66 KPDT 311059
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD STRATUS FROM
THE COLUMBIA BASIN INTO CENTRAL OREGON. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLUMBIA BASIN
AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY. A LITTLE MIXING OF THE
AIRMASS BELOW THE INVERSION THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS LIFTED THE STRATUS
RESULTING IN MUCH LESS FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS FRONT AND
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD ELIMINATE THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AND STRATUS CLOUDS BY EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. 94

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF
DISAGREE ON THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE ECMWF LIFTS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY. HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST A BIT TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN BUT ONLY WENT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. IF THE
ECMWF IS CORRECT COULD SEE POPS EVENTUALLY BEING RAISED TO LIKELY
CATEGORY. BY LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY A MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING SEVERAL PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS WITH REGARD TO TIMING ARE A BIT SKETCHY COULD
SEE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND .5 TO 1 INCHES OF RAIN
IN THE LOWLANDS. COULD ALSO BE WINDY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. CIGS WILL TEND TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN LIFT SOME THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG BUT
NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EXCEPT AT KBDN WHERE STRATUS
DECK IS INTERSECTING THE TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT N-NE. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  31  42  36 /   0  10  30  40
ALW  40  33  41  38 /   0  10  40  40
PSC  42  32  42  36 /  10  10  30  30
YKM  41  32  39  31 /   0  10  30  30
HRI  41  32  43  36 /   0  10  30  30
ELN  41  30  40  31 /   0  10  40  40
RDM  49  28  50  34 /   0  10  30  30
LGD  46  27  42  34 /   0   0  40  50
GCD  45  25  46  32 /   0  10  30  50
DLS  43  35  45  39 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/78/78









000
FXUS66 KPDT 311059
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD STRATUS FROM
THE COLUMBIA BASIN INTO CENTRAL OREGON. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLUMBIA BASIN
AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY. A LITTLE MIXING OF THE
AIRMASS BELOW THE INVERSION THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS LIFTED THE STRATUS
RESULTING IN MUCH LESS FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS FRONT AND
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD ELIMINATE THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AND STRATUS CLOUDS BY EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. 94

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF
DISAGREE ON THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE ECMWF LIFTS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY. HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST A BIT TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN BUT ONLY WENT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. IF THE
ECMWF IS CORRECT COULD SEE POPS EVENTUALLY BEING RAISED TO LIKELY
CATEGORY. BY LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY A MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING SEVERAL PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS WITH REGARD TO TIMING ARE A BIT SKETCHY COULD
SEE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND .5 TO 1 INCHES OF RAIN
IN THE LOWLANDS. COULD ALSO BE WINDY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. CIGS WILL TEND TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN LIFT SOME THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG BUT
NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EXCEPT AT KBDN WHERE STRATUS
DECK IS INTERSECTING THE TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT N-NE. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  31  42  36 /   0  10  30  40
ALW  40  33  41  38 /   0  10  40  40
PSC  42  32  42  36 /  10  10  30  30
YKM  41  32  39  31 /   0  10  30  30
HRI  41  32  43  36 /   0  10  30  30
ELN  41  30  40  31 /   0  10  40  40
RDM  49  28  50  34 /   0  10  30  30
LGD  46  27  42  34 /   0   0  40  50
GCD  45  25  46  32 /   0  10  30  50
DLS  43  35  45  39 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/78/78









000
FXUS66 KPDT 311059
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD STRATUS FROM
THE COLUMBIA BASIN INTO CENTRAL OREGON. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLUMBIA BASIN
AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY. A LITTLE MIXING OF THE
AIRMASS BELOW THE INVERSION THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS LIFTED THE STRATUS
RESULTING IN MUCH LESS FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS FRONT AND
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD ELIMINATE THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AND STRATUS CLOUDS BY EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. 94

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF
DISAGREE ON THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE ECMWF LIFTS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY. HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST A BIT TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN BUT ONLY WENT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. IF THE
ECMWF IS CORRECT COULD SEE POPS EVENTUALLY BEING RAISED TO LIKELY
CATEGORY. BY LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY A MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING SEVERAL PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS WITH REGARD TO TIMING ARE A BIT SKETCHY COULD
SEE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND .5 TO 1 INCHES OF RAIN
IN THE LOWLANDS. COULD ALSO BE WINDY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. CIGS WILL TEND TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN LIFT SOME THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG BUT
NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EXCEPT AT KBDN WHERE STRATUS
DECK IS INTERSECTING THE TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT N-NE. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  31  42  36 /   0  10  30  40
ALW  40  33  41  38 /   0  10  40  40
PSC  42  32  42  36 /  10  10  30  30
YKM  41  32  39  31 /   0  10  30  30
HRI  41  32  43  36 /   0  10  30  30
ELN  41  30  40  31 /   0  10  40  40
RDM  49  28  50  34 /   0  10  30  30
LGD  46  27  42  34 /   0   0  40  50
GCD  45  25  46  32 /   0  10  30  50
DLS  43  35  45  39 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/78/78









000
FXUS65 KBOI 311043
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
343 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...INVERSION AND HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE/ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY. INVERSION IN A SOMEWHAT DRY
AIRMASS /PW IN THE 10-20TH PERCENTILE/ WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ALLOW FOR LIMITED STRATUS AND PATCHY
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. STRATUS AT 3 AM WAS ACROSS MUCH OF S
CENTRAL IDAHO...SW OWYHEE COUNTY AND IN PATCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
HARNEY AND NORTH BAKER COUNTIES. THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR SNOW LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS /RAIN BELOW 4K
FT MSL/ AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM
BANNER SUMMIT TO BOGUS BASIN THROUGH CAMBRIDGE TO BURNS /AS WELL
AS STEENS MTN/. WITH HALF-INCH PWS FORECAST BY THE GFS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS MAY INCREASE AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER
BUT FOR NOW KEPT QPF LIGHT AROUND 0.06 INCHES /OR AN INCH OF SNOW/
MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK - BRINGING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE WETTEST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW IS ENHANCED BY
AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE LONG VALLEY AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. DRIER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDS INLAND...CUTTING
OFF THE MOISTURE SUPPLY TO OREGON/IDAHO. RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE TO TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT WET CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN/ FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 10Z...LIFR-IFR FOG WAS PRESENT AT KBNO AND
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS OTHER LOCATIONS /INCLUDING KBKE KBOI
KEUL KMYL/ AROUND 12Z. FOG AND IFR STRATUS AT KJER LIKELY TO
PERSIST UNTIL 19Z TODAY. OTHWERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
W/NW SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL
AVERAGE 20 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL. PATCHY LIFR FOG LIKELY TO
RETURN SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....MT
AVIATION.....MT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 311043
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
343 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...INVERSION AND HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE/ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY. INVERSION IN A SOMEWHAT DRY
AIRMASS /PW IN THE 10-20TH PERCENTILE/ WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ALLOW FOR LIMITED STRATUS AND PATCHY
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. STRATUS AT 3 AM WAS ACROSS MUCH OF S
CENTRAL IDAHO...SW OWYHEE COUNTY AND IN PATCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
HARNEY AND NORTH BAKER COUNTIES. THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR SNOW LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS /RAIN BELOW 4K
FT MSL/ AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM
BANNER SUMMIT TO BOGUS BASIN THROUGH CAMBRIDGE TO BURNS /AS WELL
AS STEENS MTN/. WITH HALF-INCH PWS FORECAST BY THE GFS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS MAY INCREASE AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER
BUT FOR NOW KEPT QPF LIGHT AROUND 0.06 INCHES /OR AN INCH OF SNOW/
MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK - BRINGING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE WETTEST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW IS ENHANCED BY
AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE LONG VALLEY AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. DRIER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDS INLAND...CUTTING
OFF THE MOISTURE SUPPLY TO OREGON/IDAHO. RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE TO TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT WET CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN/ FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 10Z...LIFR-IFR FOG WAS PRESENT AT KBNO AND
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS OTHER LOCATIONS /INCLUDING KBKE KBOI
KEUL KMYL/ AROUND 12Z. FOG AND IFR STRATUS AT KJER LIKELY TO
PERSIST UNTIL 19Z TODAY. OTHWERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
W/NW SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL
AVERAGE 20 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL. PATCHY LIFR FOG LIKELY TO
RETURN SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....MT
AVIATION.....MT



000
FXUS66 KPQR 311021
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER SW
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS
IS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT
CASCADE PASS LEVEL APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERSISTENCE LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO
GO TODAY. SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY AS OF 0930Z SHOWED CONSIDERABLE FOG
IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA AROUND KKLS...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO. KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT WAS A
MEAGER -2.3 MB AT 10Z...PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 3-HR FCST OFF THE 06Z
NAM. THE NAM DOES INCREASE THE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON TO -5 TO -6 MB
BY 21Z. MODEL 850 MB TEMPS DO NOT SHOW ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGE TODAY
COMPARED TO FRI SO WENT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS.
NAM MAINTAINS SOLID STRATUS IN THE GORGE TO AROUND KCZK. NAM
CROSS-SECTION FROM KAST THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE SHOWS INCREASING
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER 03Z SUN. THIS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOG
FORMATION...BUT SUSPECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL
SEE THE FOG RETURN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
BEGINNING SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE SAT NIGHT
THEN INLAND SUN. MODELS SEEM TO FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS. MODEL QPF WITH THIS ONE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
MOUNTAINS NOT GOING TO GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF NEEDED SNOWFALL AS SNOW
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 5K FEET. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON. GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON THE
QPF...WITH A CORE OF OVER AN INCH IN 6 HRS ON THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST MON MORNING. WENT MORE WITH THE ECMWF QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MAYBE
UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN 6 HRS FOR THE COAST MON MORNING. FAIRLY DECENT
850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW INTO THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES 18Z MON
THROUGH 00Z TUE. UNFORTUNATELY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THIS
WINTER...SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. SLIGHTLY
LOWER SNOW LEVELS FOR THE S WA CASCADES MON WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 540 DM...BUT SNOW LEVELS LIKELY TO BE A BIT
LOWER DUE TO SOME DEGREE OF EAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WEISHAAR

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A WARM FRONT AND
ATTEMPT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT IT NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH
TIME SETTLING ON WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL FORM AND HOW WET IT WILL BE.
IT WILL LIKELY FORM SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON OR EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN LIFT NORTH AROUND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
BROAD BRUSHED THE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
PROBLEMS. THE NEXT RATHER MATURE AND DECENTLY STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF RATHER WET FRONTS
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND NEXT WEEK IS
TOWARD A WETTER MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THIS POINT...OTHER THAN A
COUPLE OF BRIEF DIPS...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND THESE
SYSTEMS WILL NOT LIKELY ADD MUCH IF ANYTHING TO THE DEFICIENT SNOW
PACK IN THE CASCADES. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHICH HAS BROUGHT CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO
LIFR/VLIFR AT KEUG. KSLE IS VFR AT THE MOMENT...BUT FOG IS
PUSHING NORTHWARD AND SHOULD BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO LIFR OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG THE NORTH OR
COAST...WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND OCCASIONALLY BRINGING CIGS AND VIS
UP TO MVFR UNTIL THE WIND CALMS AGAIN BRINGING CIGS AND VIS BACK
DOWN TO IFR/LIFR. PERSISTENT EAST WIND ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST WILL KEEP KONP VFR OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH TEMPS IN SOME AREAS BELOW
FREEZING. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE KEEPING THE FOG PATCHY...AND
CLEAR AT KPDX AND KTTD...BUT FOG AGAIN IS COMING EASTWARD UP THE
COLUMBIA RIVER FROM KELSO AND WILL MOVE INTO KPDX SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND VIS BY 12-13Z AS FOG MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER. EXPECT FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 18Z SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AT THE TERMINAL. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ON THE MENU FOR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER
FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FIRST FRONT ON
SUNDAY BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS
ABOVE 20 KTS WHILE BRINGING SEAS UP TO AROUND 8 FT. THE SECOND
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...BRINGING SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KTS LIKELY. STRONG WINDS
WILL RAMP UP EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
UNTIL WINDS EASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SEAS UP TO AROUND 12 TO 13
FT ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING
SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 311021
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER SW
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS
IS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT
CASCADE PASS LEVEL APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERSISTENCE LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO
GO TODAY. SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY AS OF 0930Z SHOWED CONSIDERABLE FOG
IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA AROUND KKLS...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO. KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT WAS A
MEAGER -2.3 MB AT 10Z...PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 3-HR FCST OFF THE 06Z
NAM. THE NAM DOES INCREASE THE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON TO -5 TO -6 MB
BY 21Z. MODEL 850 MB TEMPS DO NOT SHOW ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGE TODAY
COMPARED TO FRI SO WENT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS.
NAM MAINTAINS SOLID STRATUS IN THE GORGE TO AROUND KCZK. NAM
CROSS-SECTION FROM KAST THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE SHOWS INCREASING
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER 03Z SUN. THIS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOG
FORMATION...BUT SUSPECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL
SEE THE FOG RETURN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
BEGINNING SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE SAT NIGHT
THEN INLAND SUN. MODELS SEEM TO FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS. MODEL QPF WITH THIS ONE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
MOUNTAINS NOT GOING TO GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF NEEDED SNOWFALL AS SNOW
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 5K FEET. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON. GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON THE
QPF...WITH A CORE OF OVER AN INCH IN 6 HRS ON THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST MON MORNING. WENT MORE WITH THE ECMWF QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MAYBE
UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN 6 HRS FOR THE COAST MON MORNING. FAIRLY DECENT
850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW INTO THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES 18Z MON
THROUGH 00Z TUE. UNFORTUNATELY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THIS
WINTER...SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. SLIGHTLY
LOWER SNOW LEVELS FOR THE S WA CASCADES MON WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 540 DM...BUT SNOW LEVELS LIKELY TO BE A BIT
LOWER DUE TO SOME DEGREE OF EAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WEISHAAR

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A WARM FRONT AND
ATTEMPT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT IT NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH
TIME SETTLING ON WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL FORM AND HOW WET IT WILL BE.
IT WILL LIKELY FORM SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON OR EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN LIFT NORTH AROUND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
BROAD BRUSHED THE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
PROBLEMS. THE NEXT RATHER MATURE AND DECENTLY STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF RATHER WET FRONTS
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND NEXT WEEK IS
TOWARD A WETTER MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THIS POINT...OTHER THAN A
COUPLE OF BRIEF DIPS...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND THESE
SYSTEMS WILL NOT LIKELY ADD MUCH IF ANYTHING TO THE DEFICIENT SNOW
PACK IN THE CASCADES. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHICH HAS BROUGHT CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO
LIFR/VLIFR AT KEUG. KSLE IS VFR AT THE MOMENT...BUT FOG IS
PUSHING NORTHWARD AND SHOULD BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO LIFR OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG THE NORTH OR
COAST...WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND OCCASIONALLY BRINGING CIGS AND VIS
UP TO MVFR UNTIL THE WIND CALMS AGAIN BRINGING CIGS AND VIS BACK
DOWN TO IFR/LIFR. PERSISTENT EAST WIND ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST WILL KEEP KONP VFR OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH TEMPS IN SOME AREAS BELOW
FREEZING. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE KEEPING THE FOG PATCHY...AND
CLEAR AT KPDX AND KTTD...BUT FOG AGAIN IS COMING EASTWARD UP THE
COLUMBIA RIVER FROM KELSO AND WILL MOVE INTO KPDX SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND VIS BY 12-13Z AS FOG MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER. EXPECT FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 18Z SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AT THE TERMINAL. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ON THE MENU FOR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER
FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FIRST FRONT ON
SUNDAY BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS
ABOVE 20 KTS WHILE BRINGING SEAS UP TO AROUND 8 FT. THE SECOND
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...BRINGING SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KTS LIKELY. STRONG WINDS
WILL RAMP UP EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
UNTIL WINDS EASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SEAS UP TO AROUND 12 TO 13
FT ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING
SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 311021
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER SW
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS
IS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT
CASCADE PASS LEVEL APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERSISTENCE LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO
GO TODAY. SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY AS OF 0930Z SHOWED CONSIDERABLE FOG
IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA AROUND KKLS...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO. KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT WAS A
MEAGER -2.3 MB AT 10Z...PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 3-HR FCST OFF THE 06Z
NAM. THE NAM DOES INCREASE THE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON TO -5 TO -6 MB
BY 21Z. MODEL 850 MB TEMPS DO NOT SHOW ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGE TODAY
COMPARED TO FRI SO WENT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS.
NAM MAINTAINS SOLID STRATUS IN THE GORGE TO AROUND KCZK. NAM
CROSS-SECTION FROM KAST THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE SHOWS INCREASING
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER 03Z SUN. THIS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOG
FORMATION...BUT SUSPECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL
SEE THE FOG RETURN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
BEGINNING SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE SAT NIGHT
THEN INLAND SUN. MODELS SEEM TO FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS. MODEL QPF WITH THIS ONE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
MOUNTAINS NOT GOING TO GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF NEEDED SNOWFALL AS SNOW
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 5K FEET. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON. GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON THE
QPF...WITH A CORE OF OVER AN INCH IN 6 HRS ON THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST MON MORNING. WENT MORE WITH THE ECMWF QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MAYBE
UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN 6 HRS FOR THE COAST MON MORNING. FAIRLY DECENT
850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW INTO THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES 18Z MON
THROUGH 00Z TUE. UNFORTUNATELY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THIS
WINTER...SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. SLIGHTLY
LOWER SNOW LEVELS FOR THE S WA CASCADES MON WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 540 DM...BUT SNOW LEVELS LIKELY TO BE A BIT
LOWER DUE TO SOME DEGREE OF EAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WEISHAAR

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A WARM FRONT AND
ATTEMPT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT IT NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH
TIME SETTLING ON WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL FORM AND HOW WET IT WILL BE.
IT WILL LIKELY FORM SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON OR EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN LIFT NORTH AROUND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
BROAD BRUSHED THE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
PROBLEMS. THE NEXT RATHER MATURE AND DECENTLY STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF RATHER WET FRONTS
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND NEXT WEEK IS
TOWARD A WETTER MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THIS POINT...OTHER THAN A
COUPLE OF BRIEF DIPS...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND THESE
SYSTEMS WILL NOT LIKELY ADD MUCH IF ANYTHING TO THE DEFICIENT SNOW
PACK IN THE CASCADES. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHICH HAS BROUGHT CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO
LIFR/VLIFR AT KEUG. KSLE IS VFR AT THE MOMENT...BUT FOG IS
PUSHING NORTHWARD AND SHOULD BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO LIFR OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG THE NORTH OR
COAST...WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND OCCASIONALLY BRINGING CIGS AND VIS
UP TO MVFR UNTIL THE WIND CALMS AGAIN BRINGING CIGS AND VIS BACK
DOWN TO IFR/LIFR. PERSISTENT EAST WIND ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST WILL KEEP KONP VFR OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH TEMPS IN SOME AREAS BELOW
FREEZING. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE KEEPING THE FOG PATCHY...AND
CLEAR AT KPDX AND KTTD...BUT FOG AGAIN IS COMING EASTWARD UP THE
COLUMBIA RIVER FROM KELSO AND WILL MOVE INTO KPDX SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND VIS BY 12-13Z AS FOG MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER. EXPECT FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 18Z SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AT THE TERMINAL. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ON THE MENU FOR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER
FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FIRST FRONT ON
SUNDAY BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS
ABOVE 20 KTS WHILE BRINGING SEAS UP TO AROUND 8 FT. THE SECOND
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...BRINGING SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KTS LIKELY. STRONG WINDS
WILL RAMP UP EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
UNTIL WINDS EASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SEAS UP TO AROUND 12 TO 13
FT ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING
SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 311021
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER SW
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS
IS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT
CASCADE PASS LEVEL APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERSISTENCE LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO
GO TODAY. SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY AS OF 0930Z SHOWED CONSIDERABLE FOG
IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA AROUND KKLS...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO. KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT WAS A
MEAGER -2.3 MB AT 10Z...PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 3-HR FCST OFF THE 06Z
NAM. THE NAM DOES INCREASE THE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON TO -5 TO -6 MB
BY 21Z. MODEL 850 MB TEMPS DO NOT SHOW ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGE TODAY
COMPARED TO FRI SO WENT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS.
NAM MAINTAINS SOLID STRATUS IN THE GORGE TO AROUND KCZK. NAM
CROSS-SECTION FROM KAST THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE SHOWS INCREASING
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER 03Z SUN. THIS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOG
FORMATION...BUT SUSPECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL
SEE THE FOG RETURN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
BEGINNING SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE SAT NIGHT
THEN INLAND SUN. MODELS SEEM TO FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS. MODEL QPF WITH THIS ONE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
MOUNTAINS NOT GOING TO GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF NEEDED SNOWFALL AS SNOW
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 5K FEET. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON. GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON THE
QPF...WITH A CORE OF OVER AN INCH IN 6 HRS ON THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST MON MORNING. WENT MORE WITH THE ECMWF QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MAYBE
UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN 6 HRS FOR THE COAST MON MORNING. FAIRLY DECENT
850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW INTO THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES 18Z MON
THROUGH 00Z TUE. UNFORTUNATELY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THIS
WINTER...SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. SLIGHTLY
LOWER SNOW LEVELS FOR THE S WA CASCADES MON WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 540 DM...BUT SNOW LEVELS LIKELY TO BE A BIT
LOWER DUE TO SOME DEGREE OF EAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WEISHAAR

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A WARM FRONT AND
ATTEMPT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT IT NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH
TIME SETTLING ON WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL FORM AND HOW WET IT WILL BE.
IT WILL LIKELY FORM SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON OR EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN LIFT NORTH AROUND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
BROAD BRUSHED THE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
PROBLEMS. THE NEXT RATHER MATURE AND DECENTLY STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF RATHER WET FRONTS
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND NEXT WEEK IS
TOWARD A WETTER MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THIS POINT...OTHER THAN A
COUPLE OF BRIEF DIPS...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND THESE
SYSTEMS WILL NOT LIKELY ADD MUCH IF ANYTHING TO THE DEFICIENT SNOW
PACK IN THE CASCADES. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHICH HAS BROUGHT CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO
LIFR/VLIFR AT KEUG. KSLE IS VFR AT THE MOMENT...BUT FOG IS
PUSHING NORTHWARD AND SHOULD BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO LIFR OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG THE NORTH OR
COAST...WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND OCCASIONALLY BRINGING CIGS AND VIS
UP TO MVFR UNTIL THE WIND CALMS AGAIN BRINGING CIGS AND VIS BACK
DOWN TO IFR/LIFR. PERSISTENT EAST WIND ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST WILL KEEP KONP VFR OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH TEMPS IN SOME AREAS BELOW
FREEZING. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE KEEPING THE FOG PATCHY...AND
CLEAR AT KPDX AND KTTD...BUT FOG AGAIN IS COMING EASTWARD UP THE
COLUMBIA RIVER FROM KELSO AND WILL MOVE INTO KPDX SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND VIS BY 12-13Z AS FOG MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER. EXPECT FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 18Z SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AT THE TERMINAL. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ON THE MENU FOR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER
FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FIRST FRONT ON
SUNDAY BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS
ABOVE 20 KTS WHILE BRINGING SEAS UP TO AROUND 8 FT. THE SECOND
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...BRINGING SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KTS LIKELY. STRONG WINDS
WILL RAMP UP EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
UNTIL WINDS EASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SEAS UP TO AROUND 12 TO 13
FT ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING
SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 310607
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1000 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...EVENING UPDATE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE GRANTS PASS
AND ROSEBURG ARE WILL BECOME LOWER AND MORE DENSE QUICKLY TONIGHT
WITH THE MEDFORD AREA SEEING A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT. CURRNE FORECAST
ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS AROUND GRANTS PASS AND UMPQUA BASIN
ARE SLOW TO BREAK UP AND IT`S POSSIBLE IT REMAIN OVERCAST IN THESE
AREAS INTO THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE THE CLOUDS IN LAKE COUNTY ARE
BREAKING UP AND IT SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
ELSEWHERE IT`S CLEAR.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THIS
MORNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR EAST OF THE CASCADES.

FINALLY WE`LL SEE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN STARTING TO UNFOLD
SUNDAY. THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND, SO WERE NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF QPF, BUT MOSTLY
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER THE FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO MIX OUT THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FINALLY
COMING OT AN END.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH RESULTING IN A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION, THEN A SECOND AND STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES
MONDAY MORNING SPREADING MORE RAIN INTO THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS WITH
THE SECOND FRONT WILL BE HIGHER ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL
RANGE, COAST AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH ONLY
CRATER LAKE EXPECTED TO GET ACCUMULATING SNOW.

THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY AND MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW KEPT SNOW LEVELS HIGH EXPECT FOR
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON HOW THE MODELS TREND WITH THE LOCATION
OF THE FRONT.

THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT LIFTING NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE EC KEEPS
THE FRONT OVER THE AREA, THEN LIFTING NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE ALL POINTING TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE`S EVEN EVIDENCE
WE`LL HAVE A DECENT WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY PER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE`LL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS AND HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS HIGHER TO REFLECT THIS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 31/06Z TAF CYCLE...WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL
FALL BACK INTO IFR TO LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT,
PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING AROUND 21Z.
EXPECT CLEARING TO BE FASTER TOMORROW DUE TO A LOWER INVERSION AND
FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORY. AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR LOW CLOUDS WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL IMPACT FAR NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND
LAKE COUNTY NORTH AND EAST OF LAKEVIEW TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, VFR
PREVAILS, INCLUDING THE COAST AND 5 NM FROM SHORE. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PST FRIDAY, JANUARY 30, 2015... HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENING ALONG THE COAST
WILL CONTINUE BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND A PERIOD OF STEEP SEAS
TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE THERMAL TROUGH
AND HIGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE WATERS ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WEAK SOUTH WINDS...WITH MODERATE WEST SWELL BUILDING LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL FRONTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH GALES POSSIBLE BEGINNING THURSDAY. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 310607
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1000 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...EVENING UPDATE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE GRANTS PASS
AND ROSEBURG ARE WILL BECOME LOWER AND MORE DENSE QUICKLY TONIGHT
WITH THE MEDFORD AREA SEEING A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT. CURRNE FORECAST
ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS AROUND GRANTS PASS AND UMPQUA BASIN
ARE SLOW TO BREAK UP AND IT`S POSSIBLE IT REMAIN OVERCAST IN THESE
AREAS INTO THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE THE CLOUDS IN LAKE COUNTY ARE
BREAKING UP AND IT SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
ELSEWHERE IT`S CLEAR.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THIS
MORNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR EAST OF THE CASCADES.

FINALLY WE`LL SEE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN STARTING TO UNFOLD
SUNDAY. THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND, SO WERE NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF QPF, BUT MOSTLY
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER THE FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO MIX OUT THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FINALLY
COMING OT AN END.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH RESULTING IN A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION, THEN A SECOND AND STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES
MONDAY MORNING SPREADING MORE RAIN INTO THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS WITH
THE SECOND FRONT WILL BE HIGHER ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL
RANGE, COAST AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH ONLY
CRATER LAKE EXPECTED TO GET ACCUMULATING SNOW.

THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY AND MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW KEPT SNOW LEVELS HIGH EXPECT FOR
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON HOW THE MODELS TREND WITH THE LOCATION
OF THE FRONT.

THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT LIFTING NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE EC KEEPS
THE FRONT OVER THE AREA, THEN LIFTING NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE ALL POINTING TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE`S EVEN EVIDENCE
WE`LL HAVE A DECENT WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY PER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE`LL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS AND HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS HIGHER TO REFLECT THIS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 31/06Z TAF CYCLE...WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL
FALL BACK INTO IFR TO LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT,
PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING AROUND 21Z.
EXPECT CLEARING TO BE FASTER TOMORROW DUE TO A LOWER INVERSION AND
FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORY. AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR LOW CLOUDS WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL IMPACT FAR NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND
LAKE COUNTY NORTH AND EAST OF LAKEVIEW TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, VFR
PREVAILS, INCLUDING THE COAST AND 5 NM FROM SHORE. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PST FRIDAY, JANUARY 30, 2015... HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENING ALONG THE COAST
WILL CONTINUE BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND A PERIOD OF STEEP SEAS
TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE THERMAL TROUGH
AND HIGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE WATERS ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WEAK SOUTH WINDS...WITH MODERATE WEST SWELL BUILDING LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL FRONTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH GALES POSSIBLE BEGINNING THURSDAY. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 310607
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1000 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...EVENING UPDATE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE GRANTS PASS
AND ROSEBURG ARE WILL BECOME LOWER AND MORE DENSE QUICKLY TONIGHT
WITH THE MEDFORD AREA SEEING A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT. CURRNE FORECAST
ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS AROUND GRANTS PASS AND UMPQUA BASIN
ARE SLOW TO BREAK UP AND IT`S POSSIBLE IT REMAIN OVERCAST IN THESE
AREAS INTO THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE THE CLOUDS IN LAKE COUNTY ARE
BREAKING UP AND IT SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
ELSEWHERE IT`S CLEAR.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THIS
MORNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR EAST OF THE CASCADES.

FINALLY WE`LL SEE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN STARTING TO UNFOLD
SUNDAY. THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND, SO WERE NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF QPF, BUT MOSTLY
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER THE FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO MIX OUT THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FINALLY
COMING OT AN END.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH RESULTING IN A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION, THEN A SECOND AND STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES
MONDAY MORNING SPREADING MORE RAIN INTO THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS WITH
THE SECOND FRONT WILL BE HIGHER ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL
RANGE, COAST AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH ONLY
CRATER LAKE EXPECTED TO GET ACCUMULATING SNOW.

THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY AND MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW KEPT SNOW LEVELS HIGH EXPECT FOR
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON HOW THE MODELS TREND WITH THE LOCATION
OF THE FRONT.

THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT LIFTING NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE EC KEEPS
THE FRONT OVER THE AREA, THEN LIFTING NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE ALL POINTING TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE`S EVEN EVIDENCE
WE`LL HAVE A DECENT WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY PER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE`LL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS AND HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS HIGHER TO REFLECT THIS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 31/06Z TAF CYCLE...WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL
FALL BACK INTO IFR TO LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT,
PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING AROUND 21Z.
EXPECT CLEARING TO BE FASTER TOMORROW DUE TO A LOWER INVERSION AND
FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORY. AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR LOW CLOUDS WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL IMPACT FAR NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND
LAKE COUNTY NORTH AND EAST OF LAKEVIEW TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, VFR
PREVAILS, INCLUDING THE COAST AND 5 NM FROM SHORE. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PST FRIDAY, JANUARY 30, 2015... HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENING ALONG THE COAST
WILL CONTINUE BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND A PERIOD OF STEEP SEAS
TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE THERMAL TROUGH
AND HIGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE WATERS ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WEAK SOUTH WINDS...WITH MODERATE WEST SWELL BUILDING LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL FRONTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH GALES POSSIBLE BEGINNING THURSDAY. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 310607
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1000 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...EVENING UPDATE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE GRANTS PASS
AND ROSEBURG ARE WILL BECOME LOWER AND MORE DENSE QUICKLY TONIGHT
WITH THE MEDFORD AREA SEEING A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT. CURRNE FORECAST
ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS AROUND GRANTS PASS AND UMPQUA BASIN
ARE SLOW TO BREAK UP AND IT`S POSSIBLE IT REMAIN OVERCAST IN THESE
AREAS INTO THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE THE CLOUDS IN LAKE COUNTY ARE
BREAKING UP AND IT SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
ELSEWHERE IT`S CLEAR.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THIS
MORNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR EAST OF THE CASCADES.

FINALLY WE`LL SEE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN STARTING TO UNFOLD
SUNDAY. THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND, SO WERE NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF QPF, BUT MOSTLY
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER THE FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO MIX OUT THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FINALLY
COMING OT AN END.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH RESULTING IN A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION, THEN A SECOND AND STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES
MONDAY MORNING SPREADING MORE RAIN INTO THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS WITH
THE SECOND FRONT WILL BE HIGHER ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL
RANGE, COAST AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH ONLY
CRATER LAKE EXPECTED TO GET ACCUMULATING SNOW.

THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY AND MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW KEPT SNOW LEVELS HIGH EXPECT FOR
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON HOW THE MODELS TREND WITH THE LOCATION
OF THE FRONT.

THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT LIFTING NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE EC KEEPS
THE FRONT OVER THE AREA, THEN LIFTING NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE ALL POINTING TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE`S EVEN EVIDENCE
WE`LL HAVE A DECENT WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY PER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE`LL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS AND HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS HIGHER TO REFLECT THIS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 31/06Z TAF CYCLE...WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL
FALL BACK INTO IFR TO LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT,
PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING AROUND 21Z.
EXPECT CLEARING TO BE FASTER TOMORROW DUE TO A LOWER INVERSION AND
FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORY. AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR LOW CLOUDS WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL IMPACT FAR NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND
LAKE COUNTY NORTH AND EAST OF LAKEVIEW TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, VFR
PREVAILS, INCLUDING THE COAST AND 5 NM FROM SHORE. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PST FRIDAY, JANUARY 30, 2015... HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENING ALONG THE COAST
WILL CONTINUE BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND A PERIOD OF STEEP SEAS
TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE THERMAL TROUGH
AND HIGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE WATERS ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WEAK SOUTH WINDS...WITH MODERATE WEST SWELL BUILDING LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL FRONTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH GALES POSSIBLE BEGINNING THURSDAY. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KPDT 310519 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
920 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING INTO WASHINGTON AND
OREGON THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG PERSIST
OVER MOST OF THE CWA BELOW 3500 FT...INCLUDING THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...THE JOHN DAY BASIN...LOWER DESCHUTES
PLATEAU...AND YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE ARE WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUD FREE. THE AREAS UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY WHILE STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR IN THE
CLEARER AREAS. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THESE TRENDS. COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06 TAFS...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. VISIBILITIES HAVE
RISEN TO VFR BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO A VFR/MVFR MIX AFTER
08 THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL AROUND 15-18Z WHEN
VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. ANTICIPATE PARTIAL CLEARING AT
KBDN AND POSSIBLY KRDM IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. 76

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 342 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND STRETCH INTO
ADJACENT VALLEY LOCATIONS INCLUDING CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE
YAKIMA/KITTITAS VALLEYS. LOCATIONS WHERE THERE IS SUN
TOMORROW...AFTN TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM ON THE TWO STATE AREA SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AS THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM TRACKS
EAST ANOTHER STRONGER STORM IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE IT MONDAY WITH
RISING SNOW LEVELS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD MIX THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AWAY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MONDAY NIGHT A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY
MORNING. BREEZY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL HAVE TROUBLE REBUILDING DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. MODELS KEEP COLD AIR WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND SHOW SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
THEY HAVE TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH GFS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET EXCEPT IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. A SECOND
BAND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO
AROUND 6000 FEET SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN WITH SNOW
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS. THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL ONCE
AGAIN HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. THE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL PUSH THE OFFSHORE RIDGE ACROSS
OUR AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE AREA AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SYSTEM TO ARRIVE THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A WET SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE RISING
TO 7000 FEET SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY
WINDS WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERHAPS IN
THE MID 50S IN CENTRAL OREGON ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  28  37  30  41 /   0  10  10  30
ALW  30  37  32  39 /   0  10  10  30
PSC  29  40  31  39 /   0  10  10  30
YKM  28  39  30  37 /   0   0  10  30
HRI  29  39  31  40 /   0   0  10  30
ELN  27  39  29  40 /   0  10  10  30
RDM  23  46  26  51 /   0   0  10  30
LGD  18  44  26  42 /   0   0  10  30
GCD  25  44  25  48 /   0   0  10  30
DLS  32  42  34  44 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76








000
FXUS66 KPDT 310519 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
920 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING INTO WASHINGTON AND
OREGON THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG PERSIST
OVER MOST OF THE CWA BELOW 3500 FT...INCLUDING THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...THE JOHN DAY BASIN...LOWER DESCHUTES
PLATEAU...AND YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE ARE WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUD FREE. THE AREAS UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY WHILE STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR IN THE
CLEARER AREAS. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THESE TRENDS. COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06 TAFS...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. VISIBILITIES HAVE
RISEN TO VFR BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO A VFR/MVFR MIX AFTER
08 THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL AROUND 15-18Z WHEN
VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. ANTICIPATE PARTIAL CLEARING AT
KBDN AND POSSIBLY KRDM IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. 76

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 342 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND STRETCH INTO
ADJACENT VALLEY LOCATIONS INCLUDING CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE
YAKIMA/KITTITAS VALLEYS. LOCATIONS WHERE THERE IS SUN
TOMORROW...AFTN TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM ON THE TWO STATE AREA SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AS THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM TRACKS
EAST ANOTHER STRONGER STORM IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE IT MONDAY WITH
RISING SNOW LEVELS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD MIX THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AWAY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MONDAY NIGHT A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY
MORNING. BREEZY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL HAVE TROUBLE REBUILDING DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. MODELS KEEP COLD AIR WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND SHOW SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
THEY HAVE TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH GFS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET EXCEPT IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. A SECOND
BAND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO
AROUND 6000 FEET SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN WITH SNOW
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS. THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL ONCE
AGAIN HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. THE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL PUSH THE OFFSHORE RIDGE ACROSS
OUR AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE AREA AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SYSTEM TO ARRIVE THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A WET SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE RISING
TO 7000 FEET SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY
WINDS WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERHAPS IN
THE MID 50S IN CENTRAL OREGON ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  28  37  30  41 /   0  10  10  30
ALW  30  37  32  39 /   0  10  10  30
PSC  29  40  31  39 /   0  10  10  30
YKM  28  39  30  37 /   0   0  10  30
HRI  29  39  31  40 /   0   0  10  30
ELN  27  39  29  40 /   0  10  10  30
RDM  23  46  26  51 /   0   0  10  30
LGD  18  44  26  42 /   0   0  10  30
GCD  25  44  25  48 /   0   0  10  30
DLS  32  42  34  44 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76








000
FXUS66 KPDT 310519 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
920 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING INTO WASHINGTON AND
OREGON THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG PERSIST
OVER MOST OF THE CWA BELOW 3500 FT...INCLUDING THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...THE JOHN DAY BASIN...LOWER DESCHUTES
PLATEAU...AND YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE ARE WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUD FREE. THE AREAS UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY WHILE STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR IN THE
CLEARER AREAS. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THESE TRENDS. COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06 TAFS...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. VISIBILITIES HAVE
RISEN TO VFR BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO A VFR/MVFR MIX AFTER
08 THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL AROUND 15-18Z WHEN
VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. ANTICIPATE PARTIAL CLEARING AT
KBDN AND POSSIBLY KRDM IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. 76

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 342 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND STRETCH INTO
ADJACENT VALLEY LOCATIONS INCLUDING CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE
YAKIMA/KITTITAS VALLEYS. LOCATIONS WHERE THERE IS SUN
TOMORROW...AFTN TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM ON THE TWO STATE AREA SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AS THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM TRACKS
EAST ANOTHER STRONGER STORM IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE IT MONDAY WITH
RISING SNOW LEVELS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD MIX THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AWAY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MONDAY NIGHT A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY
MORNING. BREEZY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL HAVE TROUBLE REBUILDING DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. MODELS KEEP COLD AIR WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND SHOW SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
THEY HAVE TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH GFS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET EXCEPT IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. A SECOND
BAND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO
AROUND 6000 FEET SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN WITH SNOW
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS. THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL ONCE
AGAIN HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. THE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL PUSH THE OFFSHORE RIDGE ACROSS
OUR AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE AREA AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SYSTEM TO ARRIVE THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A WET SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE RISING
TO 7000 FEET SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY
WINDS WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERHAPS IN
THE MID 50S IN CENTRAL OREGON ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  28  37  30  41 /   0  10  10  30
ALW  30  37  32  39 /   0  10  10  30
PSC  29  40  31  39 /   0  10  10  30
YKM  28  39  30  37 /   0   0  10  30
HRI  29  39  31  40 /   0   0  10  30
ELN  27  39  29  40 /   0  10  10  30
RDM  23  46  26  51 /   0   0  10  30
LGD  18  44  26  42 /   0   0  10  30
GCD  25  44  25  48 /   0   0  10  30
DLS  32  42  34  44 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76








000
FXUS66 KPDT 310519 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
920 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING INTO WASHINGTON AND
OREGON THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG PERSIST
OVER MOST OF THE CWA BELOW 3500 FT...INCLUDING THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...THE JOHN DAY BASIN...LOWER DESCHUTES
PLATEAU...AND YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE ARE WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUD FREE. THE AREAS UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY WHILE STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR IN THE
CLEARER AREAS. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THESE TRENDS. COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06 TAFS...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. VISIBILITIES HAVE
RISEN TO VFR BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO A VFR/MVFR MIX AFTER
08 THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL AROUND 15-18Z WHEN
VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. ANTICIPATE PARTIAL CLEARING AT
KBDN AND POSSIBLY KRDM IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. 76

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 342 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND STRETCH INTO
ADJACENT VALLEY LOCATIONS INCLUDING CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE
YAKIMA/KITTITAS VALLEYS. LOCATIONS WHERE THERE IS SUN
TOMORROW...AFTN TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM ON THE TWO STATE AREA SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AS THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM TRACKS
EAST ANOTHER STRONGER STORM IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE IT MONDAY WITH
RISING SNOW LEVELS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD MIX THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AWAY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MONDAY NIGHT A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY
MORNING. BREEZY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL HAVE TROUBLE REBUILDING DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. MODELS KEEP COLD AIR WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND SHOW SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
THEY HAVE TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH GFS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET EXCEPT IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. A SECOND
BAND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO
AROUND 6000 FEET SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN WITH SNOW
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS. THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL ONCE
AGAIN HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. THE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL PUSH THE OFFSHORE RIDGE ACROSS
OUR AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE AREA AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SYSTEM TO ARRIVE THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A WET SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE RISING
TO 7000 FEET SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY
WINDS WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERHAPS IN
THE MID 50S IN CENTRAL OREGON ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  28  37  30  41 /   0  10  10  30
ALW  30  37  32  39 /   0  10  10  30
PSC  29  40  31  39 /   0  10  10  30
YKM  28  39  30  37 /   0   0  10  30
HRI  29  39  31  40 /   0   0  10  30
ELN  27  39  29  40 /   0  10  10  30
RDM  23  46  26  51 /   0   0  10  30
LGD  18  44  26  42 /   0   0  10  30
GCD  25  44  25  48 /   0   0  10  30
DLS  32  42  34  44 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76








000
FXUS66 KPQR 310449
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
849 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE RELATIVELY
MILD TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY...WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND EAST
WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW AND FRONT MOVES BY. SOME MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MID WEEK FROM A WARM FRONT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS AND
TIMING IS LOW. A SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS IS LIKELY LATE NEXT
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT CASCADE PASS LEVEL
APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...ONLY SUBTLE FUSSING WITH THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS WE START
OUT WITH SOMEWHAT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT. AS MENTIONED
BELOW...EASTERLY GRADIENTS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN LAST NIGHT
WHILE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS ALONG THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR. HAVE NUDGED TONIGHT`S FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE TOWARD WHAT WAS
OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY BUT ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND THE CENTRAL
VALLEY. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE HAS STRENGTHENED THE INVERSIONS BY A FEW
DEGREES SO UPPED MIDSLOPE TEMPERATURES CORRESPONDINGLY. ALSO SEEING
DRIER AIR OVERALL UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE. FOR EXAMPLE THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS NEAR 9000 FEET WITH A DEW POINT OF -56 AND A CORRESPONDING
RH OF 1 (ONE) PERCENT. FORTUNATELY...LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL IN MUCH
BETTER SHAPE BUT DO EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL RESULT IN
SOME SUMMERTIME LIKE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY PROFILES THROUGH
SATURDAY. BE CAREFUL TOMORROW WITH BURNING SLASH AND YARD DEBRIS IF
ABOVE THE INVERSIONS AND OUT OF THE FOG/STRATUS. FIRE MAY GET MORE
ACTIVE THAN ONE MIGHT EXPECT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UPDATES WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
/JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 221 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE PATTERN OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY AFTERNOON
JUST BEFORE IT ALL CLEARED...AND EXPECT IT TO MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WAS A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE THIS MORNING BUT THE GRADIENT IS BACK UP
TO 6.3 MB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 MODEL SAYS THE GRADIENT IS
GOING TO WEAKEN A BIT AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...AND IF IT
DOES...THE FOG COVERAGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WOULD BE A BIT
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN THIS MORNING...AND HAVE TRENDED THE GRIDS THAT
WAY. WOULD ALSO EXPECT A BIT SLOWER CLEARING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AS THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN REMAIN SOLID AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE WINDS MIGHT
NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH.

THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE INCREASES LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES STRENGTHENS SOME DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS MAY
AFFECT THE FOG FORMATION SOME NEAR PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER...BUT THE
REST OF THE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION UP A TOUCH
AND RAISED POPS PREVIOUSLY IN THE MORNING UPDATE. WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT SHOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN SEEING
A HALF INCH OR MORE AND THE VALLEYS MAYBE A QUARTER OF AN INCH. A BIT
WETTER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH AMOUNTS A BIT HIGHER THAN ON
SUNDAY...MAYBE ONE AND A HALF TO TWO TIMES HIGHER. MAY SEE SOME
BREEZES ON THE COAST MONDAY AS A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND. UNFORTUNATELY...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH WITH
THESE SYSTEMS...WITH ANY SNOW IN THE HIGHER CASCADES IN THE NORTH
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TOLLESON

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A WARM FRONT AND
ATTEMPT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT IT NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH
TIME SETTLING ON WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL FORM AND HOW WET IT WILL BE.
IT WILL LIKELY FORM SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON OR EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN LIFT NORTH AROUND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
BROAD BRUSHED THE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
PROBLEMS. THE NEXT RATHER MATURE AND DECENTLY STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF RATHER WET FRONTS
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND NEXT WEEK IS
TOWARD A WETTER MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THIS POINT...OTHER THAN A
COUPLE OF BRIEF DIPS...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND THESE
SYSTEMS WILL NOT LIKELY ADD MUCH IF ANYTHING TO THE DEFICIENT SNOW
PACK IN THE CASCADES. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...FOG HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF KKLS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST LOWER
ATMOSPHERE FORECASTED FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY...EXPECT TO SEE
WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS REDEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE KTTD...WHICH WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
UNDER EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW ALONG THE COAST COULD ALSO BRING A MIXTURE OF LIFR TO MVFR
CIGS AND VIS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CIGS AND
VIS LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO RETURN BETWEEN
07-10Z SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 19Z SATURDAY. BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AT THE TERMINAL. /64

&&

.MARINE...OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLATED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GUSTS...THINGS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS AS PLANNED. AS
SUCH...NO CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. HIGH PRES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 6 FT WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. /64

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...WILL SEE PATTERN CHANGE NEXT
WEEK...AS A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO THE REGION. EACH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER...WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES LATER SUN
AND SUN NIGHT...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT LIKELY ON MON AS NEXT FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. IF PATTERN HOLDS...GOOD CHANCE OF
SOUTHERLY GALES NEXT THU AND FRI...WITH SEAS BUILDING INTO THE
MID AND UPPER TEENS. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310449
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
849 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE RELATIVELY
MILD TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY...WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND EAST
WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW AND FRONT MOVES BY. SOME MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MID WEEK FROM A WARM FRONT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS AND
TIMING IS LOW. A SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS IS LIKELY LATE NEXT
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT CASCADE PASS LEVEL
APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...ONLY SUBTLE FUSSING WITH THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS WE START
OUT WITH SOMEWHAT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT. AS MENTIONED
BELOW...EASTERLY GRADIENTS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN LAST NIGHT
WHILE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS ALONG THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR. HAVE NUDGED TONIGHT`S FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE TOWARD WHAT WAS
OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY BUT ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND THE CENTRAL
VALLEY. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE HAS STRENGTHENED THE INVERSIONS BY A FEW
DEGREES SO UPPED MIDSLOPE TEMPERATURES CORRESPONDINGLY. ALSO SEEING
DRIER AIR OVERALL UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE. FOR EXAMPLE THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS NEAR 9000 FEET WITH A DEW POINT OF -56 AND A CORRESPONDING
RH OF 1 (ONE) PERCENT. FORTUNATELY...LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL IN MUCH
BETTER SHAPE BUT DO EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL RESULT IN
SOME SUMMERTIME LIKE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY PROFILES THROUGH
SATURDAY. BE CAREFUL TOMORROW WITH BURNING SLASH AND YARD DEBRIS IF
ABOVE THE INVERSIONS AND OUT OF THE FOG/STRATUS. FIRE MAY GET MORE
ACTIVE THAN ONE MIGHT EXPECT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UPDATES WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
/JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 221 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE PATTERN OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY AFTERNOON
JUST BEFORE IT ALL CLEARED...AND EXPECT IT TO MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WAS A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE THIS MORNING BUT THE GRADIENT IS BACK UP
TO 6.3 MB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 MODEL SAYS THE GRADIENT IS
GOING TO WEAKEN A BIT AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...AND IF IT
DOES...THE FOG COVERAGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WOULD BE A BIT
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN THIS MORNING...AND HAVE TRENDED THE GRIDS THAT
WAY. WOULD ALSO EXPECT A BIT SLOWER CLEARING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AS THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN REMAIN SOLID AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE WINDS MIGHT
NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH.

THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE INCREASES LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES STRENGTHENS SOME DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS MAY
AFFECT THE FOG FORMATION SOME NEAR PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER...BUT THE
REST OF THE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION UP A TOUCH
AND RAISED POPS PREVIOUSLY IN THE MORNING UPDATE. WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT SHOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN SEEING
A HALF INCH OR MORE AND THE VALLEYS MAYBE A QUARTER OF AN INCH. A BIT
WETTER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH AMOUNTS A BIT HIGHER THAN ON
SUNDAY...MAYBE ONE AND A HALF TO TWO TIMES HIGHER. MAY SEE SOME
BREEZES ON THE COAST MONDAY AS A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND. UNFORTUNATELY...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH WITH
THESE SYSTEMS...WITH ANY SNOW IN THE HIGHER CASCADES IN THE NORTH
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TOLLESON

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A WARM FRONT AND
ATTEMPT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT IT NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH
TIME SETTLING ON WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL FORM AND HOW WET IT WILL BE.
IT WILL LIKELY FORM SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON OR EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN LIFT NORTH AROUND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
BROAD BRUSHED THE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
PROBLEMS. THE NEXT RATHER MATURE AND DECENTLY STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF RATHER WET FRONTS
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND NEXT WEEK IS
TOWARD A WETTER MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THIS POINT...OTHER THAN A
COUPLE OF BRIEF DIPS...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND THESE
SYSTEMS WILL NOT LIKELY ADD MUCH IF ANYTHING TO THE DEFICIENT SNOW
PACK IN THE CASCADES. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...FOG HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF KKLS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST LOWER
ATMOSPHERE FORECASTED FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY...EXPECT TO SEE
WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS REDEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE KTTD...WHICH WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
UNDER EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW ALONG THE COAST COULD ALSO BRING A MIXTURE OF LIFR TO MVFR
CIGS AND VIS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CIGS AND
VIS LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO RETURN BETWEEN
07-10Z SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 19Z SATURDAY. BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AT THE TERMINAL. /64

&&

.MARINE...OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLATED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GUSTS...THINGS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS AS PLANNED. AS
SUCH...NO CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. HIGH PRES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 6 FT WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. /64

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...WILL SEE PATTERN CHANGE NEXT
WEEK...AS A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO THE REGION. EACH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER...WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES LATER SUN
AND SUN NIGHT...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT LIKELY ON MON AS NEXT FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. IF PATTERN HOLDS...GOOD CHANCE OF
SOUTHERLY GALES NEXT THU AND FRI...WITH SEAS BUILDING INTO THE
MID AND UPPER TEENS. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310449
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
849 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE RELATIVELY
MILD TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY...WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND EAST
WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW AND FRONT MOVES BY. SOME MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MID WEEK FROM A WARM FRONT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS AND
TIMING IS LOW. A SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS IS LIKELY LATE NEXT
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT CASCADE PASS LEVEL
APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...ONLY SUBTLE FUSSING WITH THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS WE START
OUT WITH SOMEWHAT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT. AS MENTIONED
BELOW...EASTERLY GRADIENTS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN LAST NIGHT
WHILE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS ALONG THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR. HAVE NUDGED TONIGHT`S FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE TOWARD WHAT WAS
OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY BUT ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND THE CENTRAL
VALLEY. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE HAS STRENGTHENED THE INVERSIONS BY A FEW
DEGREES SO UPPED MIDSLOPE TEMPERATURES CORRESPONDINGLY. ALSO SEEING
DRIER AIR OVERALL UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE. FOR EXAMPLE THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS NEAR 9000 FEET WITH A DEW POINT OF -56 AND A CORRESPONDING
RH OF 1 (ONE) PERCENT. FORTUNATELY...LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL IN MUCH
BETTER SHAPE BUT DO EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL RESULT IN
SOME SUMMERTIME LIKE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY PROFILES THROUGH
SATURDAY. BE CAREFUL TOMORROW WITH BURNING SLASH AND YARD DEBRIS IF
ABOVE THE INVERSIONS AND OUT OF THE FOG/STRATUS. FIRE MAY GET MORE
ACTIVE THAN ONE MIGHT EXPECT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UPDATES WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
/JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 221 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE PATTERN OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY AFTERNOON
JUST BEFORE IT ALL CLEARED...AND EXPECT IT TO MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WAS A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE THIS MORNING BUT THE GRADIENT IS BACK UP
TO 6.3 MB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 MODEL SAYS THE GRADIENT IS
GOING TO WEAKEN A BIT AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...AND IF IT
DOES...THE FOG COVERAGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WOULD BE A BIT
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN THIS MORNING...AND HAVE TRENDED THE GRIDS THAT
WAY. WOULD ALSO EXPECT A BIT SLOWER CLEARING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AS THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN REMAIN SOLID AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE WINDS MIGHT
NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH.

THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE INCREASES LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES STRENGTHENS SOME DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS MAY
AFFECT THE FOG FORMATION SOME NEAR PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER...BUT THE
REST OF THE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION UP A TOUCH
AND RAISED POPS PREVIOUSLY IN THE MORNING UPDATE. WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT SHOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN SEEING
A HALF INCH OR MORE AND THE VALLEYS MAYBE A QUARTER OF AN INCH. A BIT
WETTER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH AMOUNTS A BIT HIGHER THAN ON
SUNDAY...MAYBE ONE AND A HALF TO TWO TIMES HIGHER. MAY SEE SOME
BREEZES ON THE COAST MONDAY AS A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND. UNFORTUNATELY...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH WITH
THESE SYSTEMS...WITH ANY SNOW IN THE HIGHER CASCADES IN THE NORTH
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TOLLESON

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A WARM FRONT AND
ATTEMPT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT IT NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH
TIME SETTLING ON WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL FORM AND HOW WET IT WILL BE.
IT WILL LIKELY FORM SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON OR EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN LIFT NORTH AROUND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
BROAD BRUSHED THE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
PROBLEMS. THE NEXT RATHER MATURE AND DECENTLY STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF RATHER WET FRONTS
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND NEXT WEEK IS
TOWARD A WETTER MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THIS POINT...OTHER THAN A
COUPLE OF BRIEF DIPS...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND THESE
SYSTEMS WILL NOT LIKELY ADD MUCH IF ANYTHING TO THE DEFICIENT SNOW
PACK IN THE CASCADES. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...FOG HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF KKLS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST LOWER
ATMOSPHERE FORECASTED FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY...EXPECT TO SEE
WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS REDEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE KTTD...WHICH WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
UNDER EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW ALONG THE COAST COULD ALSO BRING A MIXTURE OF LIFR TO MVFR
CIGS AND VIS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CIGS AND
VIS LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO RETURN BETWEEN
07-10Z SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 19Z SATURDAY. BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AT THE TERMINAL. /64

&&

.MARINE...OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLATED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GUSTS...THINGS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS AS PLANNED. AS
SUCH...NO CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. HIGH PRES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 6 FT WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. /64

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...WILL SEE PATTERN CHANGE NEXT
WEEK...AS A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO THE REGION. EACH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER...WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES LATER SUN
AND SUN NIGHT...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT LIKELY ON MON AS NEXT FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. IF PATTERN HOLDS...GOOD CHANCE OF
SOUTHERLY GALES NEXT THU AND FRI...WITH SEAS BUILDING INTO THE
MID AND UPPER TEENS. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310449
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
849 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE RELATIVELY
MILD TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY...WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND EAST
WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW AND FRONT MOVES BY. SOME MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MID WEEK FROM A WARM FRONT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS AND
TIMING IS LOW. A SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS IS LIKELY LATE NEXT
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT CASCADE PASS LEVEL
APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...ONLY SUBTLE FUSSING WITH THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS WE START
OUT WITH SOMEWHAT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT. AS MENTIONED
BELOW...EASTERLY GRADIENTS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN LAST NIGHT
WHILE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS ALONG THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR. HAVE NUDGED TONIGHT`S FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE TOWARD WHAT WAS
OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY BUT ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND THE CENTRAL
VALLEY. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE HAS STRENGTHENED THE INVERSIONS BY A FEW
DEGREES SO UPPED MIDSLOPE TEMPERATURES CORRESPONDINGLY. ALSO SEEING
DRIER AIR OVERALL UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE. FOR EXAMPLE THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS NEAR 9000 FEET WITH A DEW POINT OF -56 AND A CORRESPONDING
RH OF 1 (ONE) PERCENT. FORTUNATELY...LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL IN MUCH
BETTER SHAPE BUT DO EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL RESULT IN
SOME SUMMERTIME LIKE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY PROFILES THROUGH
SATURDAY. BE CAREFUL TOMORROW WITH BURNING SLASH AND YARD DEBRIS IF
ABOVE THE INVERSIONS AND OUT OF THE FOG/STRATUS. FIRE MAY GET MORE
ACTIVE THAN ONE MIGHT EXPECT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UPDATES WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
/JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 221 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE PATTERN OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY AFTERNOON
JUST BEFORE IT ALL CLEARED...AND EXPECT IT TO MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WAS A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE THIS MORNING BUT THE GRADIENT IS BACK UP
TO 6.3 MB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 MODEL SAYS THE GRADIENT IS
GOING TO WEAKEN A BIT AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...AND IF IT
DOES...THE FOG COVERAGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WOULD BE A BIT
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN THIS MORNING...AND HAVE TRENDED THE GRIDS THAT
WAY. WOULD ALSO EXPECT A BIT SLOWER CLEARING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AS THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN REMAIN SOLID AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE WINDS MIGHT
NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH.

THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE INCREASES LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES STRENGTHENS SOME DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS MAY
AFFECT THE FOG FORMATION SOME NEAR PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER...BUT THE
REST OF THE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION UP A TOUCH
AND RAISED POPS PREVIOUSLY IN THE MORNING UPDATE. WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT SHOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN SEEING
A HALF INCH OR MORE AND THE VALLEYS MAYBE A QUARTER OF AN INCH. A BIT
WETTER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH AMOUNTS A BIT HIGHER THAN ON
SUNDAY...MAYBE ONE AND A HALF TO TWO TIMES HIGHER. MAY SEE SOME
BREEZES ON THE COAST MONDAY AS A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND. UNFORTUNATELY...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH WITH
THESE SYSTEMS...WITH ANY SNOW IN THE HIGHER CASCADES IN THE NORTH
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TOLLESON

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A WARM FRONT AND
ATTEMPT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT IT NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH
TIME SETTLING ON WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL FORM AND HOW WET IT WILL BE.
IT WILL LIKELY FORM SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON OR EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN LIFT NORTH AROUND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
BROAD BRUSHED THE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
PROBLEMS. THE NEXT RATHER MATURE AND DECENTLY STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF RATHER WET FRONTS
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND NEXT WEEK IS
TOWARD A WETTER MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THIS POINT...OTHER THAN A
COUPLE OF BRIEF DIPS...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND THESE
SYSTEMS WILL NOT LIKELY ADD MUCH IF ANYTHING TO THE DEFICIENT SNOW
PACK IN THE CASCADES. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...FOG HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF KKLS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST LOWER
ATMOSPHERE FORECASTED FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY...EXPECT TO SEE
WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS REDEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE KTTD...WHICH WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
UNDER EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW ALONG THE COAST COULD ALSO BRING A MIXTURE OF LIFR TO MVFR
CIGS AND VIS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CIGS AND
VIS LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO RETURN BETWEEN
07-10Z SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 19Z SATURDAY. BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AT THE TERMINAL. /64

&&

.MARINE...OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLATED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GUSTS...THINGS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS AS PLANNED. AS
SUCH...NO CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. HIGH PRES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 6 FT WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. /64

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...WILL SEE PATTERN CHANGE NEXT
WEEK...AS A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO THE REGION. EACH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER...WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES LATER SUN
AND SUN NIGHT...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT LIKELY ON MON AS NEXT FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. IF PATTERN HOLDS...GOOD CHANCE OF
SOUTHERLY GALES NEXT THU AND FRI...WITH SEAS BUILDING INTO THE
MID AND UPPER TEENS. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 310423
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
823 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING INTO WASHINGTON AND
OREGON THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG PERSIST
OVER MOST OF THE CWA BELOW 3500 FT...INCLUDING THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...THE JOHN DAY BASIN...LOWER DESCHUTES
PLATEAU...AND YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE ARE WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUD FREE. THE AREAS UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY WHILE STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR IN THE
CLEARER AREAS. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THESE TRENDS. COONFIELD

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 342 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND STRETCH INTO
ADJACENT VALLEY LOCATIONS INCLUDING CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE
YAKIMA/KITTITAS VALLEYS. LOCATIONS WHERE THERE IS SUN
TOMORROW...AFTN TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM ON THE TWO STATE AREA SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AS THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM TRACKS
EAST ANOTHER STRONGER STORM IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE IT MONDAY WITH
RISING SNOW LEVELS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD MIX THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AWAY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MONDAY NIGHT A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY
MORNING. BREEZY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL HAVE TROUBLE REBUILDING DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. MODELS KEEP COLD AIR WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND SHOW SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
THEY HAVE TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH GFS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET EXCEPT IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. A SECOND
BAND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO
AROUND 6000 FEET SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN WITH SNOW
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS. THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL ONCE
AGAIN HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. THE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL PUSH THE OFFSHORE RIDGE ACROSS
OUR AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE AREA AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SYSTEM TO ARRIVE THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A WET SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE RISING
TO 7000 FEET SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY
WINDS WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERHAPS IN
THE MID 50S IN CENTRAL OREGON ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PERRY

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. VISIBILITIES HAVE
RISEN TO VFR BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO A VFR/MVFR MIX AFTER
02Z THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL AROUND 16Z-18Z WHEN
VISIBILITIES WILL RISE BACK TO VFR. ANTICIPATE PARTIAL CLEARING AT
KRDM AND KBDN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH CHANGING TO TYPICAL NIGHTTIME DRAINAGE
WINDS AFTER 03Z. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AFTER 20Z. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  28  37  30  41 /   0  10  10  30
ALW  30  37  32  39 /   0  10  10  30
PSC  29  40  31  39 /   0  10  10  30
YKM  28  39  30  37 /   0   0  10  30
HRI  29  39  31  40 /   0   0  10  30
ELN  27  39  29  40 /   0  10  10  30
RDM  23  46  26  51 /   0   0  10  30
LGD  18  44  26  42 /   0   0  10  30
GCD  25  44  25  48 /   0   0  10  30
DLS  32  42  34  44 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76





000
FXUS66 KPDT 310423
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
823 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING INTO WASHINGTON AND
OREGON THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG PERSIST
OVER MOST OF THE CWA BELOW 3500 FT...INCLUDING THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...THE JOHN DAY BASIN...LOWER DESCHUTES
PLATEAU...AND YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE ARE WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUD FREE. THE AREAS UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY WHILE STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR IN THE
CLEARER AREAS. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THESE TRENDS. COONFIELD

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 342 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND STRETCH INTO
ADJACENT VALLEY LOCATIONS INCLUDING CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE
YAKIMA/KITTITAS VALLEYS. LOCATIONS WHERE THERE IS SUN
TOMORROW...AFTN TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM ON THE TWO STATE AREA SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AS THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM TRACKS
EAST ANOTHER STRONGER STORM IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE IT MONDAY WITH
RISING SNOW LEVELS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD MIX THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AWAY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MONDAY NIGHT A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY
MORNING. BREEZY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL HAVE TROUBLE REBUILDING DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. MODELS KEEP COLD AIR WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND SHOW SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
THEY HAVE TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH GFS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET EXCEPT IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. A SECOND
BAND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO
AROUND 6000 FEET SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN WITH SNOW
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS. THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL ONCE
AGAIN HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. THE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL PUSH THE OFFSHORE RIDGE ACROSS
OUR AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE AREA AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SYSTEM TO ARRIVE THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A WET SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE RISING
TO 7000 FEET SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY
WINDS WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERHAPS IN
THE MID 50S IN CENTRAL OREGON ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PERRY

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. VISIBILITIES HAVE
RISEN TO VFR BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO A VFR/MVFR MIX AFTER
02Z THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL AROUND 16Z-18Z WHEN
VISIBILITIES WILL RISE BACK TO VFR. ANTICIPATE PARTIAL CLEARING AT
KRDM AND KBDN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH CHANGING TO TYPICAL NIGHTTIME DRAINAGE
WINDS AFTER 03Z. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AFTER 20Z. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  28  37  30  41 /   0  10  10  30
ALW  30  37  32  39 /   0  10  10  30
PSC  29  40  31  39 /   0  10  10  30
YKM  28  39  30  37 /   0   0  10  30
HRI  29  39  31  40 /   0   0  10  30
ELN  27  39  29  40 /   0  10  10  30
RDM  23  46  26  51 /   0   0  10  30
LGD  18  44  26  42 /   0   0  10  30
GCD  25  44  25  48 /   0   0  10  30
DLS  32  42  34  44 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76






000
FXUS65 KBOI 310330
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
830 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT EXCEPT FEWER HIGH
CLOUDS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.  LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MIXING AND/OR DRYING TODAY WILL AGAIN ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BUT PINPOINTING
EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN IS DIFFICULT.  AREAL EXTENT...HOWEVER...
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AS ALREADY FORECAST.  ON THE LARGER
SCALE LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WRN U.S. AND ERN PACIFIC.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH IT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  MORE PCPN MID-WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ADVECTS PACIFIC MOISTURE INLAND...ALSO ALREADY IN FORECAST.
NO UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS BELOW 4500 FT MSL
06Z-18Z IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND
EASTERN OREGON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTH 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS
WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 18Z. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WILL
LEAD TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE WEST
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR
4500 FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STRATUS IS FOUND IN MUCH OF
SRN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES AND ALSO OWYHEE COUNTY. THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY HAS ITS SHARE AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE
RECEDING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE EXPANDING AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE MORE DRYING TOMORROW AFTERNOON THAN
TODAY...SO WE ARE FORECASTING LESS STRATUS SAT AFTERNOON. ALOFT...
WE ARE IN THE COL AT THE NRN EDGE OF A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
LAS VEGAS. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTH AND THEN EAST...NW FLOW WILL
BUILD INTO THE PAC NW. THERE IS AN ABOVE-AVERAGE AMOUNT OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW...WHICH MEANS WE WILL SEE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE...AND A WEAK
SYSTEM...MOVE OVER THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY THAT WE HAVE MAINTAINED
POPS IN THE NRN PART OF THE CWA...AND ALSO MUCH OF SE OREGON...FOR
SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTING 15 TO 20
MPH IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE REGION AS A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVES EAST OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING A MOIST WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BUT WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE RIDGE REDEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COST AS LOW
PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREE ON THE WEATHER PATTERN BUT DIFFER ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WILL TREND POPS TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY AND MAKE CHANGES WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA/DD



000
FXUS65 KBOI 310330
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
830 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT EXCEPT FEWER HIGH
CLOUDS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.  LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MIXING AND/OR DRYING TODAY WILL AGAIN ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BUT PINPOINTING
EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN IS DIFFICULT.  AREAL EXTENT...HOWEVER...
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AS ALREADY FORECAST.  ON THE LARGER
SCALE LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WRN U.S. AND ERN PACIFIC.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH IT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  MORE PCPN MID-WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ADVECTS PACIFIC MOISTURE INLAND...ALSO ALREADY IN FORECAST.
NO UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS BELOW 4500 FT MSL
06Z-18Z IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND
EASTERN OREGON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTH 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS
WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 18Z. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WILL
LEAD TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE WEST
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR
4500 FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STRATUS IS FOUND IN MUCH OF
SRN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES AND ALSO OWYHEE COUNTY. THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY HAS ITS SHARE AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE
RECEDING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE EXPANDING AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE MORE DRYING TOMORROW AFTERNOON THAN
TODAY...SO WE ARE FORECASTING LESS STRATUS SAT AFTERNOON. ALOFT...
WE ARE IN THE COL AT THE NRN EDGE OF A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
LAS VEGAS. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTH AND THEN EAST...NW FLOW WILL
BUILD INTO THE PAC NW. THERE IS AN ABOVE-AVERAGE AMOUNT OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW...WHICH MEANS WE WILL SEE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE...AND A WEAK
SYSTEM...MOVE OVER THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY THAT WE HAVE MAINTAINED
POPS IN THE NRN PART OF THE CWA...AND ALSO MUCH OF SE OREGON...FOR
SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTING 15 TO 20
MPH IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE REGION AS A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVES EAST OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING A MOIST WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BUT WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE RIDGE REDEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COST AS LOW
PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREE ON THE WEATHER PATTERN BUT DIFFER ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WILL TREND POPS TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY AND MAKE CHANGES WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA/DD




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