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000
FXUS66 KMFR 241233
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
533 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL PUSH EAST AND SEND A
COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE REGION THIS MORNING, THEN
PUSH INLAND DURING THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS START OUT NEAR 6000 FEET,
BUT WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000-5500 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE
COOLEST AIR MASS STILL OFFSHORE BY THEN. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH PARTS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AROUND
SUMMER LAKE APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES WHERE WE COULD
PICK UP 0.30-0.50 OF AN INCH.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO CENTRAL CAL BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 500MB
TEMPS BETWEEN -30 AND -32 C WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OREGON. THE
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEGREES
C/KM...LI`S IN THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND CAPE
VALUES NEAR 400 J/KG ALONG THE COAST RANGE. FOR THE REASONS NOTED
ABOVE, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS, SO HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
COVERAGE.

SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER BETWEEN 3500-4500 FEET TONIGHT AND
RISE TO 4000-5000 FRIDAY, BUT COULD TEMPORALLY LOWER IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON ROADS WILL BE
NEAR CRATER AND DIAMOND LAKE AND HIGHWAY 140 WHERE 3-6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE, MOST BETWEEN 11 PM PDT THURSDAY AND 11 AM PDT FRIDAY.
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO IF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE
OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY ROADSIDE
ACCUMULATIONS.

IN A NUTSHELL, FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA, A FEW SUN BREAKS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY MORNING, BUT IT WILL QUICKLY FLATTEN OUT AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUSPECT THE GFS IS TOO BULLISH WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE QPF
AND WILL BE FOLLOWING THE EC/NAM SOLUTION AND ADJUSTING POPS DOWN
CONSIDERABLY, ESPECIALLY FURTHER INLAND.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH NEARLY A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT, EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES WHILE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE
TIME, BUT WINDY. A DIRTY RIDGE SETS UP SUNDAY, BUT A MOIST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AND THUS EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE
MOST OF THE DAY AND AGAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST.

A TRANSITION IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS RIDING
STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND PRECIPITATION PUSHES NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND WARMER AS THE UPPER
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD ALONG THE PAC NW.
-PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 24/12Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL IMPULSES PASS OVER THE
AREA...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND MUCH OF
THE WEST SIDE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ROGUE VALLEY...WHERE VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL...BUT MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. ON THE EAST
SIDE...EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
EARLY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE COAST AND THE
EAST SIDE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. A FRONT WILL
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS. TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...AS WELL AS
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE DOWNWIND OF THE CASCADES AND OTHER HIGH
TERRAIN. -SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 530 AM PDT. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY
AND DECREASE BY SUNRISE DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL BY LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER...WEST SWELL DOMINATED SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING STRONG
SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE REGION SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
REACHING GALE STRENGTH. -SVEN



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM
PDT
     THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$










000
FXUS66 KMFR 241233
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
533 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL PUSH EAST AND SEND A
COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE REGION THIS MORNING, THEN
PUSH INLAND DURING THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS START OUT NEAR 6000 FEET,
BUT WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000-5500 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE
COOLEST AIR MASS STILL OFFSHORE BY THEN. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH PARTS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AROUND
SUMMER LAKE APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES WHERE WE COULD
PICK UP 0.30-0.50 OF AN INCH.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO CENTRAL CAL BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 500MB
TEMPS BETWEEN -30 AND -32 C WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OREGON. THE
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEGREES
C/KM...LI`S IN THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND CAPE
VALUES NEAR 400 J/KG ALONG THE COAST RANGE. FOR THE REASONS NOTED
ABOVE, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS, SO HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
COVERAGE.

SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER BETWEEN 3500-4500 FEET TONIGHT AND
RISE TO 4000-5000 FRIDAY, BUT COULD TEMPORALLY LOWER IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON ROADS WILL BE
NEAR CRATER AND DIAMOND LAKE AND HIGHWAY 140 WHERE 3-6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE, MOST BETWEEN 11 PM PDT THURSDAY AND 11 AM PDT FRIDAY.
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO IF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE
OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY ROADSIDE
ACCUMULATIONS.

IN A NUTSHELL, FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA, A FEW SUN BREAKS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY MORNING, BUT IT WILL QUICKLY FLATTEN OUT AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUSPECT THE GFS IS TOO BULLISH WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE QPF
AND WILL BE FOLLOWING THE EC/NAM SOLUTION AND ADJUSTING POPS DOWN
CONSIDERABLY, ESPECIALLY FURTHER INLAND.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH NEARLY A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT, EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES WHILE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE
TIME, BUT WINDY. A DIRTY RIDGE SETS UP SUNDAY, BUT A MOIST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AND THUS EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE
MOST OF THE DAY AND AGAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST.

A TRANSITION IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS RIDING
STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND PRECIPITATION PUSHES NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND WARMER AS THE UPPER
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD ALONG THE PAC NW.
-PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 24/12Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL IMPULSES PASS OVER THE
AREA...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND MUCH OF
THE WEST SIDE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ROGUE VALLEY...WHERE VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL...BUT MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. ON THE EAST
SIDE...EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
EARLY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE COAST AND THE
EAST SIDE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. A FRONT WILL
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS. TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...AS WELL AS
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE DOWNWIND OF THE CASCADES AND OTHER HIGH
TERRAIN. -SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 530 AM PDT. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY
AND DECREASE BY SUNRISE DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL BY LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER...WEST SWELL DOMINATED SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING STRONG
SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE REGION SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
REACHING GALE STRENGTH. -SVEN



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM
PDT
     THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$








  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPDT 241200 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
500 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH OFFSHORE WILL BACK FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTH TODAY JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY LATE THIS
MORNING SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER BLUE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE.  POLAN

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WHILE ANOTHER
SYSTEM IN A MOIST AND PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE MOUNTAINS
HAVING A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4500 FEET. MONDAY WILL SEE RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE DRY WHILE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN HAVING THE RIDGE REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL GIVE US A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. THE GFS WANTS TO BRING AN UPPER LOW TO
THE CANADIAN BORDER AREA, POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY, THOUGH THE TIMING
CHANGES ON EACH OF THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT
HAVE THIS FEATURE. IF THIS SYSTEM PROVES TO BE REAL, THE GFS IS
USUALLY TOO FAST BRING THEM IN THIS FAR OUT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH POPS WERE RAISED TO AROUND 10
PERCENT IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN RISE TO THE 70S WITH 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SEND MOIST AIR
INTO THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY. THIS WILL CREATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH THERE MAY BE A LULL
FROM 15Z TO 18Z. ADDITIONALLY THE INSTABILITY MAY GENERATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 18Z TO 00Z AND LINGER ON
THROUGH 03Z FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD. HAVE ADDED VCTS AND A
CB LAYER FOR KPDT, KALW AND KPSC WHERE THUNDER IS LIKELIEST. SHOWERS
WILL END BY 03Z THOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN ENTERING THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z AND KRDM AND KBDN MAY SEE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z. SURFACE WINDS ARE ALREADY
INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING AND ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS FROM 18Z TO 02Z. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO 15 KTS OR LESS AFTER 05Z. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  39  57  38 /  80  60  60  20
ALW  58  42  58  42 /  90  60  70  30
PSC  64  43  63  41 /  60  20  20  10
YKM  59  35  60  36 /  50  10  20  10
HRI  62  42  61  39 /  60  40  40  20
ELN  57  36  59  35 /  60  10  20  10
RDM  55  30  49  27 /  50  60  60  20
LGD  53  36  52  35 /  80  70  80  50
GCD  54  34  46  30 /  80  70  90  40
DLS  60  40  60  40 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

99/83/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 241200 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
500 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH OFFSHORE WILL BACK FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTH TODAY JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY LATE THIS
MORNING SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER BLUE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE.  POLAN

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WHILE ANOTHER
SYSTEM IN A MOIST AND PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE MOUNTAINS
HAVING A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4500 FEET. MONDAY WILL SEE RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE DRY WHILE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN HAVING THE RIDGE REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL GIVE US A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. THE GFS WANTS TO BRING AN UPPER LOW TO
THE CANADIAN BORDER AREA, POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY, THOUGH THE TIMING
CHANGES ON EACH OF THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT
HAVE THIS FEATURE. IF THIS SYSTEM PROVES TO BE REAL, THE GFS IS
USUALLY TOO FAST BRING THEM IN THIS FAR OUT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH POPS WERE RAISED TO AROUND 10
PERCENT IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN RISE TO THE 70S WITH 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SEND MOIST AIR
INTO THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY. THIS WILL CREATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH THERE MAY BE A LULL
FROM 15Z TO 18Z. ADDITIONALLY THE INSTABILITY MAY GENERATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 18Z TO 00Z AND LINGER ON
THROUGH 03Z FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD. HAVE ADDED VCTS AND A
CB LAYER FOR KPDT, KALW AND KPSC WHERE THUNDER IS LIKELIEST. SHOWERS
WILL END BY 03Z THOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN ENTERING THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z AND KRDM AND KBDN MAY SEE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z. SURFACE WINDS ARE ALREADY
INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING AND ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS FROM 18Z TO 02Z. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO 15 KTS OR LESS AFTER 05Z. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  39  57  38 /  80  60  60  20
ALW  58  42  58  42 /  90  60  70  30
PSC  64  43  63  41 /  60  20  20  10
YKM  59  35  60  36 /  50  10  20  10
HRI  62  42  61  39 /  60  40  40  20
ELN  57  36  59  35 /  60  10  20  10
RDM  55  30  49  27 /  50  60  60  20
LGD  53  36  52  35 /  80  70  80  50
GCD  54  34  46  30 /  80  70  90  40
DLS  60  40  60  40 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

99/83/83





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000
FXUS66 KPQR 241102
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
355 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TODAY BUT SHOWERS WILL
BE LIGHTER. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH AND COLD AIR WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
RESULT. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY ON THE
COAST WITH RAIN SPREADING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT NEAR THE NORTH OREGON COAST AT 3AM WILL
PUSH INLAND DURING THE MORNING WITH RAIN TURNING TO SHOWERS. QUITE A
BIT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCATIONS IN
THE NORTH COAST RANGE AND THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES IN THE 1.5
TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. RIVERS DRAINING THE COAST RANGE AND THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES HAVE RESPONDED WITH SOME RAPID RISES. I EXPECT
THE COWLITZ RIVER TO RISE ABOVE BANKFULL AT KELSO THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE GRAYS RIVER IN PACIFIC COUNTY
WILL RISE ABOVE BANKFULL AND COULD APPROACH FLOOD STAGE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT IS ALMOST THERE AT 345 AM AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY 5 AM WITH ALLOWING FOR A RECESSION
AROUND 8 AM JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS FREQUENT MID DAY TODAY. I AM GOING TO
CANCEL THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES AS THE SNOW LEVEL IS
AROUND 5500 TO 6500 FEET AND ABOVE THE PASSES. TIMBERLINE AND HIGHER
SKI AREAS ARE THE ONLY PLACES LIKELY TO GET MUCH SNOW THIS MORNING.
THEN THE SNOW LEVEL WILL DROP AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY SOME SNOW
WILL FALL IN THE CASCADES AND AT THE HIGHEST PASSES BUT AMOUNTS WILL
NOT WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SNOW LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TOMORROW
DROPPING BELOW THE PASSES LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MID LEVEL
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW SO SNOW AMOUNTS
AT THE PASSES WILL BE LIGHT.

THERE IS PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TODAY OR ENOUGH COLD
AIR ALOFT TO RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH INDICATE THE COLD POOL IS OVER NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTENDS SOUTH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT EXTENDING INTO NW OREGON. AIR
MASS IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INLAND AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE SHOWERS
SHOULD TAPER OFF DRAMATICALLY AFTER SUNSET. I THINK WE SHOULD HAVE A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF SATURDAY...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST
WHERE LIGHT RAIN MAY SPREAD IN BY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND
FROM THE NEXT WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL TIMING IS PRETTY
CONSISTENT. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN.
KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. A
WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ON MON...BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW. RIGHT NOW...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
THAT TUE WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND
HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE WED...AS THE 12Z GFS AND SOME OF
ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A TROF OVER THE NE PAC WILL SPLIT...WITH
THE NORTHERN ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW WED AS AN OPEN TROF. THE
12Z ECMWF MAINTAINS A NE PAC CLOSED LOW THAT HARDLY MOVES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING RIDGING TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
PAC NW FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ON WED DUE
TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. PYLE &&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ONSHORE SOON...THEN PUSH INLAND
TO THE CASCADES BY 13Z-15Z. IFR AND MVFR AT THE COAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR INLAND WITH MAIN PRECIP SHIELD
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GUSTY S-SSW WINDS EASE SOME AND
BECOME SW.

BEHIND THIS FRONT THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE. STEADY RAIN WILL SWITCH TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
IMPROVED VSBYS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HEAVIER
SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT
TIMES... UP TO 25 KT WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 13-14Z.
AFTER THAT WINDS TURN W-SW WITH IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS BUT
CONTINUED SHOWERS. EXPECT GENERAL VFR WITH SHOWERS TODAY...THOUGH
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY AT TIMES. WEAGLE/KMD

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL PUSH INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY AND WEAKEN. THIS LOW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ONSHORE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BEFORE SUNRISE...BRINGING GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO THE INNER WATERS. CONDITIONS HAVE EASED FARTHER OFFSHORE
AND DROPPED THE GALE THERE.

AS THE LOW TRACKS INLAND...BLUSTERY W-SW FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THURSDAY...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY EASING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THERE MAY BE A GUST TO 35 KT IN THE FAR NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS...MOST GUIDANCE SUGGEST SUB-GALES WILL DOMINATE TODAY. VERY
CHOPPY COMBINED SEAS 11-14 FT LIKELY THROUGH THU MORNING...BUT
THIS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER THU/THU NIGHT. LIGHTER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRI/EARLY SAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLS OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS SLACKEN OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH SHOWERS MAY BRING SQUALLY WIND GUSTS ON FRI.

ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES AGAIN
LATER SAT. KMD

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM

     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PDT
THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 10 PM
THIS EVENING TO 5
     AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&


$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 241102
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
355 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TODAY BUT SHOWERS WILL
BE LIGHTER. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH AND COLD AIR WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
RESULT. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY ON THE
COAST WITH RAIN SPREADING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT NEAR THE NORTH OREGON COAST AT 3AM WILL
PUSH INLAND DURING THE MORNING WITH RAIN TURNING TO SHOWERS. QUITE A
BIT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCATIONS IN
THE NORTH COAST RANGE AND THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES IN THE 1.5
TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. RIVERS DRAINING THE COAST RANGE AND THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES HAVE RESPONDED WITH SOME RAPID RISES. I EXPECT
THE COWLITZ RIVER TO RISE ABOVE BANKFULL AT KELSO THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE GRAYS RIVER IN PACIFIC COUNTY
WILL RISE ABOVE BANKFULL AND COULD APPROACH FLOOD STAGE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT IS ALMOST THERE AT 345 AM AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY 5 AM WITH ALLOWING FOR A RECESSION
AROUND 8 AM JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS FREQUENT MID DAY TODAY. I AM GOING TO
CANCEL THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES AS THE SNOW LEVEL IS
AROUND 5500 TO 6500 FEET AND ABOVE THE PASSES. TIMBERLINE AND HIGHER
SKI AREAS ARE THE ONLY PLACES LIKELY TO GET MUCH SNOW THIS MORNING.
THEN THE SNOW LEVEL WILL DROP AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY SOME SNOW
WILL FALL IN THE CASCADES AND AT THE HIGHEST PASSES BUT AMOUNTS WILL
NOT WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SNOW LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TOMORROW
DROPPING BELOW THE PASSES LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MID LEVEL
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW SO SNOW AMOUNTS
AT THE PASSES WILL BE LIGHT.

THERE IS PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TODAY OR ENOUGH COLD
AIR ALOFT TO RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH INDICATE THE COLD POOL IS OVER NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTENDS SOUTH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT EXTENDING INTO NW OREGON. AIR
MASS IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INLAND AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE SHOWERS
SHOULD TAPER OFF DRAMATICALLY AFTER SUNSET. I THINK WE SHOULD HAVE A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF SATURDAY...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST
WHERE LIGHT RAIN MAY SPREAD IN BY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND
FROM THE NEXT WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL TIMING IS PRETTY
CONSISTENT. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN.
KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. A
WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ON MON...BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW. RIGHT NOW...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
THAT TUE WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND
HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE WED...AS THE 12Z GFS AND SOME OF
ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A TROF OVER THE NE PAC WILL SPLIT...WITH
THE NORTHERN ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW WED AS AN OPEN TROF. THE
12Z ECMWF MAINTAINS A NE PAC CLOSED LOW THAT HARDLY MOVES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING RIDGING TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
PAC NW FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ON WED DUE
TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. PYLE &&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ONSHORE SOON...THEN PUSH INLAND
TO THE CASCADES BY 13Z-15Z. IFR AND MVFR AT THE COAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR INLAND WITH MAIN PRECIP SHIELD
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GUSTY S-SSW WINDS EASE SOME AND
BECOME SW.

BEHIND THIS FRONT THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE. STEADY RAIN WILL SWITCH TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
IMPROVED VSBYS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HEAVIER
SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT
TIMES... UP TO 25 KT WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 13-14Z.
AFTER THAT WINDS TURN W-SW WITH IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS BUT
CONTINUED SHOWERS. EXPECT GENERAL VFR WITH SHOWERS TODAY...THOUGH
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY AT TIMES. WEAGLE/KMD

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL PUSH INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY AND WEAKEN. THIS LOW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ONSHORE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BEFORE SUNRISE...BRINGING GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO THE INNER WATERS. CONDITIONS HAVE EASED FARTHER OFFSHORE
AND DROPPED THE GALE THERE.

AS THE LOW TRACKS INLAND...BLUSTERY W-SW FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THURSDAY...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY EASING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THERE MAY BE A GUST TO 35 KT IN THE FAR NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS...MOST GUIDANCE SUGGEST SUB-GALES WILL DOMINATE TODAY. VERY
CHOPPY COMBINED SEAS 11-14 FT LIKELY THROUGH THU MORNING...BUT
THIS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER THU/THU NIGHT. LIGHTER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRI/EARLY SAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLS OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS SLACKEN OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH SHOWERS MAY BRING SQUALLY WIND GUSTS ON FRI.

ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES AGAIN
LATER SAT. KMD

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM

     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PDT
THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 10 PM
THIS EVENING TO 5
     AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&


$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPDT 241001
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH OFFSHORE WILL BACK FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTH TODAY JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY LATE THIS
MORNING SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER BLUE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY DUR TO HIGH
PRESSURE.  POLAN

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WHILE ANOTHER
SYSTEM IN A MOIST AND PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE MOUNTAINS
HAVING A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4500 FEET. MONDAY WILL SEE RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE DRY WHILE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN HAVING THE RIDGE REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL GIVE US A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. THE GFS WANTS TO BRING AN UPPER LOW TO
THE CANADIAN BORDER AREA, POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY, THOUGH THE TIMING
CHANGES ON EACH OF THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT
HAVE THIS FEATURE. IF THIS SYSTEM PROVES TO BE REAL, THE GFS IS
USUALLY TOO FAST BRING THEM IN THIS FAR OUT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH POPS WERE RAISED TO AROUND 10
PERCENT IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN RISE TO THE 70S WITH 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...THERE MAY BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT DUE TO
LOWERED CIGS AND SHOWERS REDUCING VISIBILITY. HOWEVER MOST OF THE
TIME VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND THEN WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH LOCALLY 15 TO
25 KTS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND MIXES
DOWN STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT WITH CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL PRIMARILY
BE AT KPDT AND KALW. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  39  57  38 /  80  60  60  20
ALW  58  42  58  42 /  90  60  70  30
PSC  64  43  63  41 /  60  20  20  10
YKM  59  35  60  36 /  50  10  20  10
HRI  62  42  61  39 /  60  40  40  20
ELN  57  36  59  35 /  60  10  20  10
RDM  55  30  49  27 /  50  60  60  20
LGD  53  36  52  35 /  80  70  80  50
GCD  54  34  46  30 /  80  70  90  40
DLS  60  40  60  40 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

99/83/83









000
FXUS66 KPDT 241001
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH OFFSHORE WILL BACK FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTH TODAY JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY LATE THIS
MORNING SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER BLUE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY DUR TO HIGH
PRESSURE.  POLAN

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WHILE ANOTHER
SYSTEM IN A MOIST AND PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE MOUNTAINS
HAVING A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4500 FEET. MONDAY WILL SEE RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE DRY WHILE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN HAVING THE RIDGE REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL GIVE US A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. THE GFS WANTS TO BRING AN UPPER LOW TO
THE CANADIAN BORDER AREA, POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY, THOUGH THE TIMING
CHANGES ON EACH OF THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT
HAVE THIS FEATURE. IF THIS SYSTEM PROVES TO BE REAL, THE GFS IS
USUALLY TOO FAST BRING THEM IN THIS FAR OUT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH POPS WERE RAISED TO AROUND 10
PERCENT IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN RISE TO THE 70S WITH 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...THERE MAY BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT DUE TO
LOWERED CIGS AND SHOWERS REDUCING VISIBILITY. HOWEVER MOST OF THE
TIME VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND THEN WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH LOCALLY 15 TO
25 KTS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND MIXES
DOWN STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT WITH CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL PRIMARILY
BE AT KPDT AND KALW. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  39  57  38 /  80  60  60  20
ALW  58  42  58  42 /  90  60  70  30
PSC  64  43  63  41 /  60  20  20  10
YKM  59  35  60  36 /  50  10  20  10
HRI  62  42  61  39 /  60  40  40  20
ELN  57  36  59  35 /  60  10  20  10
RDM  55  30  49  27 /  50  60  60  20
LGD  53  36  52  35 /  80  70  80  50
GCD  54  34  46  30 /  80  70  90  40
DLS  60  40  60  40 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

99/83/83









000
FXUS66 KPDT 241001
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH OFFSHORE WILL BACK FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTH TODAY JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY LATE THIS
MORNING SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER BLUE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY DUR TO HIGH
PRESSURE.  POLAN

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WHILE ANOTHER
SYSTEM IN A MOIST AND PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE MOUNTAINS
HAVING A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4500 FEET. MONDAY WILL SEE RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE DRY WHILE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN HAVING THE RIDGE REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL GIVE US A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. THE GFS WANTS TO BRING AN UPPER LOW TO
THE CANADIAN BORDER AREA, POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY, THOUGH THE TIMING
CHANGES ON EACH OF THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT
HAVE THIS FEATURE. IF THIS SYSTEM PROVES TO BE REAL, THE GFS IS
USUALLY TOO FAST BRING THEM IN THIS FAR OUT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH POPS WERE RAISED TO AROUND 10
PERCENT IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN RISE TO THE 70S WITH 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...THERE MAY BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT DUE TO
LOWERED CIGS AND SHOWERS REDUCING VISIBILITY. HOWEVER MOST OF THE
TIME VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND THEN WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH LOCALLY 15 TO
25 KTS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND MIXES
DOWN STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT WITH CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL PRIMARILY
BE AT KPDT AND KALW. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  39  57  38 /  80  60  60  20
ALW  58  42  58  42 /  90  60  70  30
PSC  64  43  63  41 /  60  20  20  10
YKM  59  35  60  36 /  50  10  20  10
HRI  62  42  61  39 /  60  40  40  20
ELN  57  36  59  35 /  60  10  20  10
RDM  55  30  49  27 /  50  60  60  20
LGD  53  36  52  35 /  80  70  80  50
GCD  54  34  46  30 /  80  70  90  40
DLS  60  40  60  40 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

99/83/83









000
FXUS66 KPDT 241001
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH OFFSHORE WILL BACK FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTH TODAY JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY LATE THIS
MORNING SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER BLUE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY DUR TO HIGH
PRESSURE.  POLAN

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WHILE ANOTHER
SYSTEM IN A MOIST AND PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE MOUNTAINS
HAVING A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4500 FEET. MONDAY WILL SEE RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE DRY WHILE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN HAVING THE RIDGE REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL GIVE US A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. THE GFS WANTS TO BRING AN UPPER LOW TO
THE CANADIAN BORDER AREA, POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY, THOUGH THE TIMING
CHANGES ON EACH OF THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT
HAVE THIS FEATURE. IF THIS SYSTEM PROVES TO BE REAL, THE GFS IS
USUALLY TOO FAST BRING THEM IN THIS FAR OUT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH POPS WERE RAISED TO AROUND 10
PERCENT IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN RISE TO THE 70S WITH 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...THERE MAY BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT DUE TO
LOWERED CIGS AND SHOWERS REDUCING VISIBILITY. HOWEVER MOST OF THE
TIME VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND THEN WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH LOCALLY 15 TO
25 KTS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND MIXES
DOWN STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT WITH CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL PRIMARILY
BE AT KPDT AND KALW. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  39  57  38 /  80  60  60  20
ALW  58  42  58  42 /  90  60  70  30
PSC  64  43  63  41 /  60  20  20  10
YKM  59  35  60  36 /  50  10  20  10
HRI  62  42  61  39 /  60  40  40  20
ELN  57  36  59  35 /  60  10  20  10
RDM  55  30  49  27 /  50  60  60  20
LGD  53  36  52  35 /  80  70  80  50
GCD  54  34  46  30 /  80  70  90  40
DLS  60  40  60  40 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

99/83/83









000
FXUS66 KMFR 240956
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
256 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL PUSH EAST AND SEND A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE REGION THIS MORNING, THEN PUSH
INLAND DURING THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS START OUT NEAR 6000 FEET, BUT
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000-5500 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE
COOLEST AIR MASS STILL OFFSHORE BY THEN. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH PARTS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AROUND
SUMMER LAKE APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES WHERE WE COULD
PICK UP 0.30-0.50 OF AN INCH.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO CENTRAL CAL BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 500MB
TEMPS BETWEEN -30 AND -32 C WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OREGON. THE
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEGREES
C/KM...LI`S IN THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND CAPE
VALUES NEAR 400 J/KG ALONG THE COAST RANGE. FOR THE REASONS NOTED
ABOVE, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS, SO HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
COVERAGE.

SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER BETWEEN 3500-4500 FEET TONIGHT AND
RISE TO 4000-5000 FRIDAY, BUT COULD TEMPORALLY LOWER IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON ROADS WILL BE
NEAR CRATER AND DIAMOND LAKE AND HIGHWAY 140 WHERE 3-6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE, MOST BETWEEN 11 PM PDT THURSDAY AND 11 AM PDT FRIDAY.
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO IF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE
OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY ROADSIDE
ACCUMULATIONS.

IN A NUTSHELL, FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA, A FEW SUN BREAKS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY MORNING, BUT IT WILL QUICKLY FLATTEN OUT AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUSPECT THE GFS IS TOO BULLISH WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE QPF
AND WILL BE FOLLOWING THE EC/NAM SOLUTION AND ADJUSTING POPS DOWN
CONSIDERABLY, ESPECIALLY FURTHER INLAND.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH NEARLY A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT, EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES WHILE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE
TIME, BUT WINDY. A DIRTY RIDGE SETS UP SUNDAY, BUT A MOIST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AND THUS EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE
MOST OF THE DAY AND AGAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST.

A TRANSITION IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS RIDING
STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND PRECIPITATION PUSHES NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND WARMER AS THE UPPER
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD ALONG THE PAC NW.
-PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 24/06Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL IMPULSES PASS OVER THE
AREA...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND MUCH OF THE
WEST SIDE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ROGUE VALLEY...WHERE VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL...BUT MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. ON THE EAST
SIDE...EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE COAST AND THE EAST SIDE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. A FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS. TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...AS WELL AS
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE DOWNWIND OF THE CASCADES AND OTHER HIGH
TERRAIN. -BPN


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 700 PM PDT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY
CHOPPY WIND GENERATED SEAS...MOSTLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE WESTERLY AND DECREASE LATE TONIGHT DROPPING BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL REMAIN
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS
WELL. MND


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PDT
     THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$







000
FXUS66 KMFR 240956
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
256 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL PUSH EAST AND SEND A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE REGION THIS MORNING, THEN PUSH
INLAND DURING THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS START OUT NEAR 6000 FEET, BUT
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000-5500 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE
COOLEST AIR MASS STILL OFFSHORE BY THEN. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH PARTS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AROUND
SUMMER LAKE APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES WHERE WE COULD
PICK UP 0.30-0.50 OF AN INCH.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO CENTRAL CAL BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 500MB
TEMPS BETWEEN -30 AND -32 C WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OREGON. THE
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEGREES
C/KM...LI`S IN THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND CAPE
VALUES NEAR 400 J/KG ALONG THE COAST RANGE. FOR THE REASONS NOTED
ABOVE, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS, SO HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
COVERAGE.

SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER BETWEEN 3500-4500 FEET TONIGHT AND
RISE TO 4000-5000 FRIDAY, BUT COULD TEMPORALLY LOWER IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON ROADS WILL BE
NEAR CRATER AND DIAMOND LAKE AND HIGHWAY 140 WHERE 3-6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE, MOST BETWEEN 11 PM PDT THURSDAY AND 11 AM PDT FRIDAY.
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO IF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE
OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY ROADSIDE
ACCUMULATIONS.

IN A NUTSHELL, FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA, A FEW SUN BREAKS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY MORNING, BUT IT WILL QUICKLY FLATTEN OUT AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUSPECT THE GFS IS TOO BULLISH WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE QPF
AND WILL BE FOLLOWING THE EC/NAM SOLUTION AND ADJUSTING POPS DOWN
CONSIDERABLY, ESPECIALLY FURTHER INLAND.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH NEARLY A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT, EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES WHILE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE
TIME, BUT WINDY. A DIRTY RIDGE SETS UP SUNDAY, BUT A MOIST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AND THUS EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE
MOST OF THE DAY AND AGAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST.

A TRANSITION IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS RIDING
STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND PRECIPITATION PUSHES NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND WARMER AS THE UPPER
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD ALONG THE PAC NW.
-PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 24/06Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL IMPULSES PASS OVER THE
AREA...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND MUCH OF THE
WEST SIDE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ROGUE VALLEY...WHERE VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL...BUT MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. ON THE EAST
SIDE...EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE COAST AND THE EAST SIDE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. A FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS. TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...AS WELL AS
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE DOWNWIND OF THE CASCADES AND OTHER HIGH
TERRAIN. -BPN


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 700 PM PDT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY
CHOPPY WIND GENERATED SEAS...MOSTLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE WESTERLY AND DECREASE LATE TONIGHT DROPPING BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL REMAIN
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS
WELL. MND


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PDT
     THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 240924
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
324 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD WARM-FRONTAL TYPE PRECIPITATION TODAY...
PCPN DECREASING THIS EVENING THEN INCREASING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND.  TOTAL PCPN
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE HEAVIEST IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST-
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WHERE A FULL INCH TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS
EXPECTED.  AROUND A HALF-INCH TOTAL IS EXPECTED IN EASTERN OREGON...
THE TREASURE VALLEY AND OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...AND A QUARTER INCH IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY...SOUTHWEST IDAHO HIGHLANDS...AND THE SOUTHERN
SAWTOOTHS.  THESE LARGER AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE BUT NONE
IS EXPECTED TO FLOOD.  HOWEVER...SMALL STREAMS WILL RUN FAST IN THE
BOISE MOUNTAINS AND ROCKS AND DEBRIS MAY FALL IN STEEPER TERRAIN.
THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...
ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST OREGON ZONES AND
THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO.  THE INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
WESTERN IDAHO THIS EVENING THEN FADE OUT DURING THE NIGHT.  SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN MOST ZONES IN OUR
CWA.  TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TODAY THAN WEDNESDAY...THEN
COOLER AGAIN FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMES INLAND.  GUSTY
WEST OR SOUTHWEST WINDS IN SRN-MOST IDAHO ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING THE WRN MAGIC VALLEY...OWYHEE COUNTY...AND SRN TWIN FALLS
COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN DIVERGE QUICKLY. THE
TROUGH THAT MOVES IN THROUGH FRIDAY SPLITS WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CA/NV AND THE NORTHERN PORTION MOVING INTO
MONTANA. OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH A DECENT UPR JET MOVES OVER MAINLY
THE IDAHO ZONES. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
EXISTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY SHORT BREAK IS EXPECTED
LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE A WEAK WARM
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SUNRISE. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE MUCH DRIER BY THEN...SO PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIMITED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5
TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST
AMPLIFYING NORTH AND EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GFS AND ECM INCLUDING THEIR
ENSEMBLES DIVERGE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE GFS TAKES AN
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS HAWAII AND PUSHES THE NORTHERN PORTION INTO
WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY. THE ECM ALSO SHOWING THIS ELONGATED LOW IN
THE SAME LOCATION...BUT KEEPS IT CONSOLIDATED OFF THE COAST WHICH
KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION.  AT LEAST FOR NOW...ANY MAJOR
IMPACTS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WOULD BE MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS LOWERING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD EASTWARD. SNOW
LEVEL GENERALLY 6000-7000 FT MSL ACROSS THE SOUTH AND 5500-6000 FEET
ACROSS THE NORTH. WORST FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS KBKE
THROUGH KMYL WITH MTNS OBSCURED TODAY. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
KBNO/KBKE AROUND 21Z AND INTO KBOI AND KMYL AROUND 00Z. KJER/KTWF
SHOULD SEE THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS TO THEIR
WEST. SFC WINDS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS
TO 20 KTS. SHIFTING WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONT. 10 KFT WINDS
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....CR
AVIATION.....CR



000
FXUS65 KBOI 240924
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
324 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD WARM-FRONTAL TYPE PRECIPITATION TODAY...
PCPN DECREASING THIS EVENING THEN INCREASING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND.  TOTAL PCPN
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE HEAVIEST IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST-
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WHERE A FULL INCH TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS
EXPECTED.  AROUND A HALF-INCH TOTAL IS EXPECTED IN EASTERN OREGON...
THE TREASURE VALLEY AND OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...AND A QUARTER INCH IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY...SOUTHWEST IDAHO HIGHLANDS...AND THE SOUTHERN
SAWTOOTHS.  THESE LARGER AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE BUT NONE
IS EXPECTED TO FLOOD.  HOWEVER...SMALL STREAMS WILL RUN FAST IN THE
BOISE MOUNTAINS AND ROCKS AND DEBRIS MAY FALL IN STEEPER TERRAIN.
THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...
ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST OREGON ZONES AND
THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO.  THE INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
WESTERN IDAHO THIS EVENING THEN FADE OUT DURING THE NIGHT.  SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN MOST ZONES IN OUR
CWA.  TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TODAY THAN WEDNESDAY...THEN
COOLER AGAIN FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMES INLAND.  GUSTY
WEST OR SOUTHWEST WINDS IN SRN-MOST IDAHO ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING THE WRN MAGIC VALLEY...OWYHEE COUNTY...AND SRN TWIN FALLS
COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN DIVERGE QUICKLY. THE
TROUGH THAT MOVES IN THROUGH FRIDAY SPLITS WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CA/NV AND THE NORTHERN PORTION MOVING INTO
MONTANA. OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH A DECENT UPR JET MOVES OVER MAINLY
THE IDAHO ZONES. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
EXISTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY SHORT BREAK IS EXPECTED
LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE A WEAK WARM
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SUNRISE. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE MUCH DRIER BY THEN...SO PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIMITED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5
TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST
AMPLIFYING NORTH AND EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GFS AND ECM INCLUDING THEIR
ENSEMBLES DIVERGE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE GFS TAKES AN
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS HAWAII AND PUSHES THE NORTHERN PORTION INTO
WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY. THE ECM ALSO SHOWING THIS ELONGATED LOW IN
THE SAME LOCATION...BUT KEEPS IT CONSOLIDATED OFF THE COAST WHICH
KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION.  AT LEAST FOR NOW...ANY MAJOR
IMPACTS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WOULD BE MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS LOWERING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD EASTWARD. SNOW
LEVEL GENERALLY 6000-7000 FT MSL ACROSS THE SOUTH AND 5500-6000 FEET
ACROSS THE NORTH. WORST FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS KBKE
THROUGH KMYL WITH MTNS OBSCURED TODAY. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
KBNO/KBKE AROUND 21Z AND INTO KBOI AND KMYL AROUND 00Z. KJER/KTWF
SHOULD SEE THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS TO THEIR
WEST. SFC WINDS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS
TO 20 KTS. SHIFTING WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONT. 10 KFT WINDS
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....CR
AVIATION.....CR




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240416
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
915 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT  AND
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING FOR CONTINUED PERSISTENT RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW. THE PARENT UPPER LOW OR TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING ONSHORE AND THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MORE SHOWERS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS IT MAINLY SHOWS A BLOB OF UNORGANIZED
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE WARM FRONT IS DRAPING EAST TO WEST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
SALEM OREGON AND KELSO WASHINGTON.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX LOW OFFSHORE. SUBTLE FEATURES IN
WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITES SHOW THAT THERE ACTUALLY MAY BE
TWO CLOSE-KNIT COLD FRONTS OFFSHORE. THE MAIN ONE ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW NEAR 48N 128W. THERE APPEARS TO BE SIGNS OF ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE LOW AROUND 43N 129W. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COAST TONIGHT AS THESE FRONTS APPROACH.

THE NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE HAS SEEN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN THIS
EVENING WITH MANY RAIN GAGES REPORTING AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE PAST 6
HOURS.THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY HAS MEASURED AROUND 0.3 INCH THE PAST 6
HOURS..AND THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH.

SNOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN RISING AND ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 5500 FEET.
STILL THINK THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GET A GOOD DOSE OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT AND WILL LET HE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES
RIDE OUT.

WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MODEL LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOOK A LITTLE WEAK FOR THUNDER BUT WE
SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME SMALL HAIL...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
BIT OF A CAP AT 700 MB AS THE MAIN COLDER AIR ALOFT IS STILL
OFFSHORE. ON FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AND THUNDER CHANCES LOOK A
BIT BETTER AS TEMPS AT 500 MB FALL TO MINUS 28 DEG C.

WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER RIDGING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. HARTLEY/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN.
KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. A
WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE FCST AREA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ON MON...BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW. RIGHT NOW...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
THAT TUE WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND
HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LATEST FCST PACKAGE.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY BEGINS
TO INCREASE WED...AS THE 12Z GFS AND SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE
THAT A TROF OVER THE NE PAC WILL SPLIT...WITH THE NORTHERN ENERGY
PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW WED AS AN OPEN TROF. THE 12Z ECMWF MAINTAINS
A NE PAC CLOSED LOW THAT HARDLY MOVES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING RIDGING TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PAC NW FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ON WED DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY. PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...DISORGANIZED YET POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SPREAD RAIN AND GENERAL MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE WINDS
MAY GUST TO 40 KNOTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ONSHORE 08Z-10Z...THEN
PUSH INLAND TO THE CASCADES BY 13Z-15Z.

BEHIND THIS FRONT THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE...WITH BETTER MIXING AND CIGS PUSHING BACK UP INTO THE
2000-3000 FT RANGE. STEADY RAIN WILL SWITCH TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH IMPROVED VSBYS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS LIKELY TO HOLD AROUND 1500 FT IN
OCCASIONAL RAIN THROUGH 12Z. S WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...
UP TO 25 KT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT 12Z-14Z. AFTER THAT
WINDS TURN W-SW WITH IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS BUT CONTINUED SHOWERS.
EXPECT GENERAL MVFR WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY...THOUGH PERIODS OF VFR
ARE LIKELY BETWEEN SHOWERS.  WEAGLE
&&

.MARINE...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PAC NW COAST ALREADY
BROUGHT ONE SURGE OF S WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...
AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER VERY EARLY THU MORNING. GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL JET...PRIOR
TO 12Z. DECIDED TO END THE GALE WARNING FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS
JUST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING...BUT
WILL KEEP IT THROUGH MIDDAY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AS A FEW GALE
GUSTS COULD LINGER AS THE PARENT LOW PUSHES INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND.

OTHERWISE AFTER SUNRISE...BLUSTERY AND SQUALLY W-SW FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THURSDAY...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY EASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VERY CHOPPY COMBINED SEAS 12-16 FT LIKELY
THROUGH THU MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER THU/THU
NIGHT. LIGHTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI/EARLY SAT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS SLACKEN OVER THE AREA.  WEAGLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THURSDAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 240416
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
915 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT  AND
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING FOR CONTINUED PERSISTENT RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW. THE PARENT UPPER LOW OR TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING ONSHORE AND THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MORE SHOWERS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS IT MAINLY SHOWS A BLOB OF UNORGANIZED
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE WARM FRONT IS DRAPING EAST TO WEST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
SALEM OREGON AND KELSO WASHINGTON.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX LOW OFFSHORE. SUBTLE FEATURES IN
WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITES SHOW THAT THERE ACTUALLY MAY BE
TWO CLOSE-KNIT COLD FRONTS OFFSHORE. THE MAIN ONE ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW NEAR 48N 128W. THERE APPEARS TO BE SIGNS OF ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE LOW AROUND 43N 129W. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COAST TONIGHT AS THESE FRONTS APPROACH.

THE NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE HAS SEEN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN THIS
EVENING WITH MANY RAIN GAGES REPORTING AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE PAST 6
HOURS.THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY HAS MEASURED AROUND 0.3 INCH THE PAST 6
HOURS..AND THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH.

SNOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN RISING AND ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 5500 FEET.
STILL THINK THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GET A GOOD DOSE OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT AND WILL LET HE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES
RIDE OUT.

WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MODEL LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOOK A LITTLE WEAK FOR THUNDER BUT WE
SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME SMALL HAIL...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
BIT OF A CAP AT 700 MB AS THE MAIN COLDER AIR ALOFT IS STILL
OFFSHORE. ON FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AND THUNDER CHANCES LOOK A
BIT BETTER AS TEMPS AT 500 MB FALL TO MINUS 28 DEG C.

WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER RIDGING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. HARTLEY/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN.
KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. A
WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE FCST AREA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ON MON...BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW. RIGHT NOW...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
THAT TUE WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND
HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LATEST FCST PACKAGE.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY BEGINS
TO INCREASE WED...AS THE 12Z GFS AND SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE
THAT A TROF OVER THE NE PAC WILL SPLIT...WITH THE NORTHERN ENERGY
PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW WED AS AN OPEN TROF. THE 12Z ECMWF MAINTAINS
A NE PAC CLOSED LOW THAT HARDLY MOVES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING RIDGING TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PAC NW FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ON WED DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY. PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...DISORGANIZED YET POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SPREAD RAIN AND GENERAL MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE WINDS
MAY GUST TO 40 KNOTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ONSHORE 08Z-10Z...THEN
PUSH INLAND TO THE CASCADES BY 13Z-15Z.

BEHIND THIS FRONT THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE...WITH BETTER MIXING AND CIGS PUSHING BACK UP INTO THE
2000-3000 FT RANGE. STEADY RAIN WILL SWITCH TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH IMPROVED VSBYS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS LIKELY TO HOLD AROUND 1500 FT IN
OCCASIONAL RAIN THROUGH 12Z. S WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...
UP TO 25 KT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT 12Z-14Z. AFTER THAT
WINDS TURN W-SW WITH IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS BUT CONTINUED SHOWERS.
EXPECT GENERAL MVFR WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY...THOUGH PERIODS OF VFR
ARE LIKELY BETWEEN SHOWERS.  WEAGLE
&&

.MARINE...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PAC NW COAST ALREADY
BROUGHT ONE SURGE OF S WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...
AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER VERY EARLY THU MORNING. GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL JET...PRIOR
TO 12Z. DECIDED TO END THE GALE WARNING FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS
JUST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING...BUT
WILL KEEP IT THROUGH MIDDAY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AS A FEW GALE
GUSTS COULD LINGER AS THE PARENT LOW PUSHES INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND.

OTHERWISE AFTER SUNRISE...BLUSTERY AND SQUALLY W-SW FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THURSDAY...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY EASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VERY CHOPPY COMBINED SEAS 12-16 FT LIKELY
THROUGH THU MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER THU/THU
NIGHT. LIGHTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI/EARLY SAT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS SLACKEN OVER THE AREA.  WEAGLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THURSDAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 240416
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
915 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT  AND
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING FOR CONTINUED PERSISTENT RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW. THE PARENT UPPER LOW OR TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING ONSHORE AND THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MORE SHOWERS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS IT MAINLY SHOWS A BLOB OF UNORGANIZED
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE WARM FRONT IS DRAPING EAST TO WEST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
SALEM OREGON AND KELSO WASHINGTON.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX LOW OFFSHORE. SUBTLE FEATURES IN
WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITES SHOW THAT THERE ACTUALLY MAY BE
TWO CLOSE-KNIT COLD FRONTS OFFSHORE. THE MAIN ONE ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW NEAR 48N 128W. THERE APPEARS TO BE SIGNS OF ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE LOW AROUND 43N 129W. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COAST TONIGHT AS THESE FRONTS APPROACH.

THE NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE HAS SEEN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN THIS
EVENING WITH MANY RAIN GAGES REPORTING AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE PAST 6
HOURS.THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY HAS MEASURED AROUND 0.3 INCH THE PAST 6
HOURS..AND THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH.

SNOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN RISING AND ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 5500 FEET.
STILL THINK THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GET A GOOD DOSE OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT AND WILL LET HE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES
RIDE OUT.

WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MODEL LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOOK A LITTLE WEAK FOR THUNDER BUT WE
SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME SMALL HAIL...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
BIT OF A CAP AT 700 MB AS THE MAIN COLDER AIR ALOFT IS STILL
OFFSHORE. ON FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AND THUNDER CHANCES LOOK A
BIT BETTER AS TEMPS AT 500 MB FALL TO MINUS 28 DEG C.

WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER RIDGING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. HARTLEY/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN.
KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. A
WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE FCST AREA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ON MON...BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW. RIGHT NOW...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
THAT TUE WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND
HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LATEST FCST PACKAGE.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY BEGINS
TO INCREASE WED...AS THE 12Z GFS AND SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE
THAT A TROF OVER THE NE PAC WILL SPLIT...WITH THE NORTHERN ENERGY
PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW WED AS AN OPEN TROF. THE 12Z ECMWF MAINTAINS
A NE PAC CLOSED LOW THAT HARDLY MOVES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING RIDGING TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PAC NW FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ON WED DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY. PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...DISORGANIZED YET POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SPREAD RAIN AND GENERAL MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE WINDS
MAY GUST TO 40 KNOTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ONSHORE 08Z-10Z...THEN
PUSH INLAND TO THE CASCADES BY 13Z-15Z.

BEHIND THIS FRONT THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE...WITH BETTER MIXING AND CIGS PUSHING BACK UP INTO THE
2000-3000 FT RANGE. STEADY RAIN WILL SWITCH TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH IMPROVED VSBYS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS LIKELY TO HOLD AROUND 1500 FT IN
OCCASIONAL RAIN THROUGH 12Z. S WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...
UP TO 25 KT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT 12Z-14Z. AFTER THAT
WINDS TURN W-SW WITH IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS BUT CONTINUED SHOWERS.
EXPECT GENERAL MVFR WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY...THOUGH PERIODS OF VFR
ARE LIKELY BETWEEN SHOWERS.  WEAGLE
&&

.MARINE...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PAC NW COAST ALREADY
BROUGHT ONE SURGE OF S WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...
AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER VERY EARLY THU MORNING. GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL JET...PRIOR
TO 12Z. DECIDED TO END THE GALE WARNING FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS
JUST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING...BUT
WILL KEEP IT THROUGH MIDDAY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AS A FEW GALE
GUSTS COULD LINGER AS THE PARENT LOW PUSHES INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND.

OTHERWISE AFTER SUNRISE...BLUSTERY AND SQUALLY W-SW FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THURSDAY...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY EASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VERY CHOPPY COMBINED SEAS 12-16 FT LIKELY
THROUGH THU MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER THU/THU
NIGHT. LIGHTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI/EARLY SAT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS SLACKEN OVER THE AREA.  WEAGLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THURSDAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS65 KBOI 240258
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
858 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE UP 4-8 DEGREES WEST OF
A LINE BETWEEN MCCALL AND BOISE AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHED THE
AREA. WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING TO NEARLY 25 MPH FROM THE WSW
ACROSS HIGHWAY 95 NEAR JORDAN VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE STILL
IN THE MID 50S AT 8 PM MDT. LIGHT RAIN HAD MADE IT EAST OF THE
OREGON CASCADES TO REDMOND. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST ALONG WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS BUT NOT BEFORE AROUND AN INCH
OF WET SNOW FALLS AT MCCALL BEFORE SUNRISE. ROAD TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE 40S AS OF 845 PM. SPC SREF 6HR CALIBRATED SNOW ON ROADS
NEAR MCCALL IS 20-30 PERCENT FOR 6 AM SO SOME SPOTS OF WINTER
DRIVING IS EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY FOR 95/55 IN CENTRAL IDAHO
ABOVE 5000 FEET. THIS IS COVERED IN THE FORECAST SO NO UPDATES
THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OREGON INTO
THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z AND MOST OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO
AFTER 12Z WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN
THE VALLEYS...AND LOCAL IFR/VFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ABOVE 5K-6K FT
MSL. SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH 5-15 KTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS ALOFT...WEST UP TO 30 KTS AT
10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WAS ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED LIGHT
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED IN THE NORTH...BUT RADAR IMAGERY
WAS DEPICTING SHOWERS SOUTH TO THE ID/NV BORDER. THE ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE WAVE PASSES
BY TO THE EAST. NEXT AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE THE
UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS STILL STRENGTHENING IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA. PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY SPREADING INTO
THE PACNW AHEAD OF IT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL GRADUALLY WORK
EASTWARD INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AT AROUND 5000 FEET THEN RISE
TO AROUND 6000 FEET LATER THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL IN THE AFTERNOON...STILL LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF SE OREGON/SW IDAHO. UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TOWARD THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AHEAD OF IT...THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS THE REGION. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF UP
TO A HALF INCH IN THE VALLEYS AND A HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE
MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED. SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COOL UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TO THE EAST. EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE RIVER MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WHILE
THE SLOWER NORTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTHERN
IDAHO FOR CHANCE POPS. SUNDAY A WEAKER THROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW THAT WILL HELP PUSH THE PREVIOUS TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
IDAHO TO THE EAST AND WILL SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
OVER ALL FORECAST ZONES FOR SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY TUESDAY ON HOW STRONG THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET SO
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE BY
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AROUND 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT COULD SEE EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 240258
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
858 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE UP 4-8 DEGREES WEST OF
A LINE BETWEEN MCCALL AND BOISE AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHED THE
AREA. WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING TO NEARLY 25 MPH FROM THE WSW
ACROSS HIGHWAY 95 NEAR JORDAN VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE STILL
IN THE MID 50S AT 8 PM MDT. LIGHT RAIN HAD MADE IT EAST OF THE
OREGON CASCADES TO REDMOND. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST ALONG WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS BUT NOT BEFORE AROUND AN INCH
OF WET SNOW FALLS AT MCCALL BEFORE SUNRISE. ROAD TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE 40S AS OF 845 PM. SPC SREF 6HR CALIBRATED SNOW ON ROADS
NEAR MCCALL IS 20-30 PERCENT FOR 6 AM SO SOME SPOTS OF WINTER
DRIVING IS EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY FOR 95/55 IN CENTRAL IDAHO
ABOVE 5000 FEET. THIS IS COVERED IN THE FORECAST SO NO UPDATES
THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OREGON INTO
THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z AND MOST OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO
AFTER 12Z WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN
THE VALLEYS...AND LOCAL IFR/VFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ABOVE 5K-6K FT
MSL. SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH 5-15 KTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS ALOFT...WEST UP TO 30 KTS AT
10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WAS ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED LIGHT
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED IN THE NORTH...BUT RADAR IMAGERY
WAS DEPICTING SHOWERS SOUTH TO THE ID/NV BORDER. THE ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE WAVE PASSES
BY TO THE EAST. NEXT AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE THE
UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS STILL STRENGTHENING IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA. PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY SPREADING INTO
THE PACNW AHEAD OF IT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL GRADUALLY WORK
EASTWARD INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AT AROUND 5000 FEET THEN RISE
TO AROUND 6000 FEET LATER THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL IN THE AFTERNOON...STILL LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF SE OREGON/SW IDAHO. UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TOWARD THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AHEAD OF IT...THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS THE REGION. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF UP
TO A HALF INCH IN THE VALLEYS AND A HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE
MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED. SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COOL UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TO THE EAST. EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE RIVER MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WHILE
THE SLOWER NORTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTHERN
IDAHO FOR CHANCE POPS. SUNDAY A WEAKER THROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW THAT WILL HELP PUSH THE PREVIOUS TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
IDAHO TO THE EAST AND WILL SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
OVER ALL FORECAST ZONES FOR SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY TUESDAY ON HOW STRONG THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET SO
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE BY
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AROUND 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT COULD SEE EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 240258
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
858 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE UP 4-8 DEGREES WEST OF
A LINE BETWEEN MCCALL AND BOISE AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHED THE
AREA. WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING TO NEARLY 25 MPH FROM THE WSW
ACROSS HIGHWAY 95 NEAR JORDAN VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE STILL
IN THE MID 50S AT 8 PM MDT. LIGHT RAIN HAD MADE IT EAST OF THE
OREGON CASCADES TO REDMOND. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST ALONG WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS BUT NOT BEFORE AROUND AN INCH
OF WET SNOW FALLS AT MCCALL BEFORE SUNRISE. ROAD TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE 40S AS OF 845 PM. SPC SREF 6HR CALIBRATED SNOW ON ROADS
NEAR MCCALL IS 20-30 PERCENT FOR 6 AM SO SOME SPOTS OF WINTER
DRIVING IS EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY FOR 95/55 IN CENTRAL IDAHO
ABOVE 5000 FEET. THIS IS COVERED IN THE FORECAST SO NO UPDATES
THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OREGON INTO
THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z AND MOST OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO
AFTER 12Z WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN
THE VALLEYS...AND LOCAL IFR/VFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ABOVE 5K-6K FT
MSL. SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH 5-15 KTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS ALOFT...WEST UP TO 30 KTS AT
10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WAS ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED LIGHT
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED IN THE NORTH...BUT RADAR IMAGERY
WAS DEPICTING SHOWERS SOUTH TO THE ID/NV BORDER. THE ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE WAVE PASSES
BY TO THE EAST. NEXT AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE THE
UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS STILL STRENGTHENING IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA. PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY SPREADING INTO
THE PACNW AHEAD OF IT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL GRADUALLY WORK
EASTWARD INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AT AROUND 5000 FEET THEN RISE
TO AROUND 6000 FEET LATER THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL IN THE AFTERNOON...STILL LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF SE OREGON/SW IDAHO. UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TOWARD THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AHEAD OF IT...THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS THE REGION. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF UP
TO A HALF INCH IN THE VALLEYS AND A HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE
MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED. SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COOL UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TO THE EAST. EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE RIVER MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WHILE
THE SLOWER NORTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTHERN
IDAHO FOR CHANCE POPS. SUNDAY A WEAKER THROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW THAT WILL HELP PUSH THE PREVIOUS TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
IDAHO TO THE EAST AND WILL SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
OVER ALL FORECAST ZONES FOR SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY TUESDAY ON HOW STRONG THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET SO
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE BY
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AROUND 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT COULD SEE EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 240258
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
858 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE UP 4-8 DEGREES WEST OF
A LINE BETWEEN MCCALL AND BOISE AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHED THE
AREA. WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING TO NEARLY 25 MPH FROM THE WSW
ACROSS HIGHWAY 95 NEAR JORDAN VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE STILL
IN THE MID 50S AT 8 PM MDT. LIGHT RAIN HAD MADE IT EAST OF THE
OREGON CASCADES TO REDMOND. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST ALONG WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS BUT NOT BEFORE AROUND AN INCH
OF WET SNOW FALLS AT MCCALL BEFORE SUNRISE. ROAD TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE 40S AS OF 845 PM. SPC SREF 6HR CALIBRATED SNOW ON ROADS
NEAR MCCALL IS 20-30 PERCENT FOR 6 AM SO SOME SPOTS OF WINTER
DRIVING IS EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY FOR 95/55 IN CENTRAL IDAHO
ABOVE 5000 FEET. THIS IS COVERED IN THE FORECAST SO NO UPDATES
THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OREGON INTO
THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z AND MOST OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO
AFTER 12Z WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN
THE VALLEYS...AND LOCAL IFR/VFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ABOVE 5K-6K FT
MSL. SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH 5-15 KTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS ALOFT...WEST UP TO 30 KTS AT
10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WAS ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED LIGHT
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED IN THE NORTH...BUT RADAR IMAGERY
WAS DEPICTING SHOWERS SOUTH TO THE ID/NV BORDER. THE ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE WAVE PASSES
BY TO THE EAST. NEXT AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE THE
UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS STILL STRENGTHENING IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA. PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY SPREADING INTO
THE PACNW AHEAD OF IT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL GRADUALLY WORK
EASTWARD INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AT AROUND 5000 FEET THEN RISE
TO AROUND 6000 FEET LATER THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL IN THE AFTERNOON...STILL LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF SE OREGON/SW IDAHO. UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TOWARD THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AHEAD OF IT...THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS THE REGION. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF UP
TO A HALF INCH IN THE VALLEYS AND A HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE
MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED. SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COOL UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TO THE EAST. EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE RIVER MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WHILE
THE SLOWER NORTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTHERN
IDAHO FOR CHANCE POPS. SUNDAY A WEAKER THROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW THAT WILL HELP PUSH THE PREVIOUS TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
IDAHO TO THE EAST AND WILL SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
OVER ALL FORECAST ZONES FOR SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY TUESDAY ON HOW STRONG THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET SO
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE BY
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AROUND 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT COULD SEE EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH



000
FXUS66 KPDT 240221
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
720 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE CWA FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE UP ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING RAIN
TO THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...ABOVE 5000 FEET SO
SNOW WILL ONLY BE EXPECTED ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THE COLD FRONT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADES BY 18Z AND TO THE IDAHO BORDER BY
00Z. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COLDER MOVING IN ALOFT. AS SUCH THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE
THOUGH SOME COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CWA
ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MORE RAIN OR
RAIN SHOWERS. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. 88

&&

.AVIATION...THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT DUE TO LOWERED CIGS AND SHOWERS REDUCING
VISIBILITY. HOWEVER MOST OF THE TIME VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN WILL INCREASE
TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH LOCALLY 15 TO 25 KTS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND MIXES DOWN STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT
WITH CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE AT KPDT AND KALW. 88

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 225 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS
PACKAGE IS THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACNW COAST TOWARD
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ATMOSPHERE ALSO BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AN ISOLD TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES. THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WA/OR FRIDAY AND THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN
SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE LESSENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4K
FEET DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE AREA WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY...WITH PROGRESSIVE
WESTERLY FLOW TO FOLLOW.  A BREAK IN THE MOISTURE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...BUT STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE VALLEYS.  OVERALL...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
3500-4500 FEET SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING MONDAY
ONWARD.  BY MONDAY NIGHT...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN AND
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE BETWEEN 6500-7500 FEET.  AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE EXTENDED.  TEMPERATURES
WILL START OFF IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND SHOULD BE IN THE MID 70S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY
AFTER TUESDAY.  GFS MODEL HAS A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA...WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.  THUNDERSTORMS
CAN`T BE RULED OUT WITH THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.  HOWEVER...ECMWF
CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH CONTINUED WARM AND
DRY TEMPERATURES.  LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED...THEREFORE THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  NO THUNDER HAS
BEEN ADDED TO THE EXTENDED...AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  58  39  57 /  60  70  60  50
ALW  47  58  42  58 /  60  80  60  50
PSC  48  64  43  63 /  60  60  20  20
YKM  41  59  35  60 /  50  50  20  10
HRI  46  62  42  61 /  60  60  40  30
ELN  40  57  36  59 /  50  60  20  10
RDM  39  55  30  49 /  60  50  60  60
LGD  43  53  36  52 /  70  80  70  70
GCD  38  54  34  46 /  60  80  70  80
DLS  46  60  40  60 /  70  60  40  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/89/88








000
FXUS66 KPDT 240221
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
720 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE CWA FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE UP ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING RAIN
TO THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...ABOVE 5000 FEET SO
SNOW WILL ONLY BE EXPECTED ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THE COLD FRONT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADES BY 18Z AND TO THE IDAHO BORDER BY
00Z. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COLDER MOVING IN ALOFT. AS SUCH THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE
THOUGH SOME COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CWA
ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MORE RAIN OR
RAIN SHOWERS. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. 88

&&

.AVIATION...THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT DUE TO LOWERED CIGS AND SHOWERS REDUCING
VISIBILITY. HOWEVER MOST OF THE TIME VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN WILL INCREASE
TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH LOCALLY 15 TO 25 KTS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND MIXES DOWN STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT
WITH CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE AT KPDT AND KALW. 88

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 225 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS
PACKAGE IS THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACNW COAST TOWARD
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ATMOSPHERE ALSO BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AN ISOLD TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES. THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WA/OR FRIDAY AND THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN
SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE LESSENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4K
FEET DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE AREA WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY...WITH PROGRESSIVE
WESTERLY FLOW TO FOLLOW.  A BREAK IN THE MOISTURE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...BUT STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE VALLEYS.  OVERALL...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
3500-4500 FEET SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING MONDAY
ONWARD.  BY MONDAY NIGHT...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN AND
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE BETWEEN 6500-7500 FEET.  AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE EXTENDED.  TEMPERATURES
WILL START OFF IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND SHOULD BE IN THE MID 70S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY
AFTER TUESDAY.  GFS MODEL HAS A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA...WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.  THUNDERSTORMS
CAN`T BE RULED OUT WITH THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.  HOWEVER...ECMWF
CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH CONTINUED WARM AND
DRY TEMPERATURES.  LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED...THEREFORE THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  NO THUNDER HAS
BEEN ADDED TO THE EXTENDED...AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  58  39  57 /  60  70  60  50
ALW  47  58  42  58 /  60  80  60  50
PSC  48  64  43  63 /  60  60  20  20
YKM  41  59  35  60 /  50  50  20  10
HRI  46  62  42  61 /  60  60  40  30
ELN  40  57  36  59 /  50  60  20  10
RDM  39  55  30  49 /  60  50  60  60
LGD  43  53  36  52 /  70  80  70  70
GCD  38  54  34  46 /  60  80  70  80
DLS  46  60  40  60 /  70  60  40  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/89/88









000
FXUS66 KMFR 240216
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
716 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...AFTER CLOSE EXAMINATION OF THE LATEST MODELS...HAVE MADE
NUMEROUS UPDATES TO THE FORECAST...MOSTLY IN REGARDS TO WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION. WIND FIELDS PRODUCED BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE
PRODUCING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KT AT 700 MB OVER THE EAST SIDE.
AS IS STANDARD FOR THIS AREA...THIS MOMENTUM CAN EASILY BE
TRANSFERRED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HAVE ADJUSTED THE IND FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND...AND SUBSEQUENTLY ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE SUMMER LAKE AREA AND
THE EXPOSED TERRAIN ALONG WINTER RIM AND THE WARNER MOUNTAINS.

CURRENT FORECAST POPS WERE ONLY ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY...TO ACCOUNT FOR
A WIDER AREA OF NEAR CERTAIN PRECIPITATION. THE MAJOR CHANGE WAS
IN QPF...WHICH WAS SIGNIFICANTLY UPPED ALONG THE COAST AND THE
CASCADES. INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT...OR MOISTURE INFLOW...APPEARS
STRONGER AND LONGER LIVED THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...PERHAPS
PERSISTING FOR UP TO 24 HOURS BEGINNING EARLIER THIS EVENING.
WHILE GUIDANCE DOES NOT PORTRAY A WELL DEFINED ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER...THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM DOES EXHIBIT SOME CHARACTERISTICS
IN COMMON WITH SUCH AN EVENT...AND THEREFORE FEEL THAT A WETTER
FORECAST WAS NECESSARY.

THERE IS A NOTE OF INTEREST REGARDING THIS STORM SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT THE FRONT MAY CONSIST OF MULTIPLE WAVES THAT
WOULD ESSENTIALLY AMOUNT TO A ONE-TWO PUNCH...WITH A BRIEF BUT
NOTICEABLE BREAK IN BETWEEN. THIS FEATURE WAS FIRST NOTICED
YESTERDAY...AND IS MUCH MORE APPARENT THIS EVENING. IN
ESSENCE...IT WOULD MEAN THAT WINDS WOULD PEAK...LESSEN FOR A FEW
HOURS...THEN PEAK AGAIN AT A HIGHER SPEED. IT WOULD ALSO SUGGEST
TWO DISTINCT BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION....ONE OCCURRING OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE SECOND BETWEEN ROUGHLY 12Z AND 18Z.

FOR MORE DETAILS AND INFORMATION...SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE
AREA WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR WEST SIDE LOCATIONS. LOCAL
IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...ALONG WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.  HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED. EAST OF THE
CASCADES VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING BY
LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. -MND

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 700 PM PDT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY
CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS...MOSTLY IN THE VICINITY OF AND NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND DECREASE LATE
TONIGHT DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL. -MND


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT,
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A WARM FRONT IS IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN EXTENDING INTO DOUGLAS, WESTERN PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND
SISKIYOU COUNTIES...AND ALSO INTO WESTERN KLAMATH, AND WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF JACKSON COUNTY. RAINFALL IS HEAVIEST IN THE
COASTAL RANGE AS RED MOUND HAS ALREADY RECEIVED OVER SIX TENTHS OF
AN INCH IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND MORE THAN THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH
AT QUAIL PRAIRIE. RAIN WILL SPREAD FURTHER INLAND DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH A SNOW LEVEL
AROUND 6000 TO 6500 FEET.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES THROUGH
THE MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO CREATE GUSTY BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BE STRONGEST AT THE
COAST, IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD
FRONT...AT THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND ON THE EAST SIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE SNOW LEVEL FALLS FROM AROUND 5500 FEET TO AROUND 3000
TO 3500 FEET MSL. THUS, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ON THE MAJOR
HIGHWAY PASSES THAT ARE ABOVE 3500 FEET IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. I BLENDED THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BUT
LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE WETTER 12Z GFS WITH A FORECAST OF UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW LEVEL
WILL REACH ITS LOW POINT ON FRIDAY MORNING THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
RISE TO AROUND 4000 FEET ON THE WEST SIDE AND 5000 FEET ON THE
EAST SIDE. SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A RIDGE BRIEFLY NUDGES NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION.

THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LOWERED FOR SATURDAY
WITH MOST LIKELY ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT COASTAL AND UMPQUA VALLEY
SHOWERS IN A MOIST LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT FROM DAY-TO-DAY WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT BUT HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW CONSISTENCY IN
TIMING IT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH TRENDED A
BIT WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT BUT I WOULD NOT CALL IT WEAK. RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST SIDE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SNOW
LEVEL AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FEET BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHTER
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. /DW

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE EC...GFS...AND DGEX MODELS ALL SHOW A BROAD RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST MONDAY MORNING. THE EC SOLUTION SHOWS 500 MB HEIGHTS ABOUT
60-90M LOWER THAN THAN THE GFS/DGEX...BUT OTHERWISE THEY ARE PRETTY
MUCH THE SAME.

GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FLAT NATURE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT PLENTY OF
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA BUT NO PRECIPITATION. MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE REFLECTS THE HEIGHT DISPARITY BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS/DGEX
WITH THE FORMER DEPICTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND TEMPERATURES
AND THE LATTER SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT DOES SO IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH
BETWEEN 130W AND 150W.  500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA WILL RISE QUITE
A BIT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO EXPECT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A
WARMING TREND.

THE UNCERTAINTY FACTOR IN THE FORECAST INCREASES QUITE A BIT
WEDNESDAY AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON THE FATE OF THE OFFSHORE
TROUGH. THE GFS/DGEX BRINGS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO 130W WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND THIS SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT A LAND FALLING FRONT
WEDNESDAY.  MEANWHILE THE EC KEEPS THE TROUGH OUT BETWEEN 140W AND
150W...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL INTRODUCE SOME POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL NOT GO WHOLE HOG YET. /JRS


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ030-031.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM
     PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO 3
     AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BPN/MND/DW/JRS






000
FXUS66 KMFR 232213
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
313 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT,
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A WARM FRONT IS IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN EXTENDING INTO DOUGLAS, WESTERN PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND
SISKIYOU COUNTIES...AND ALSO INTO WESTERN KLAMATH, AND WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF JACKSON COUNTY. RAINFALL IS HEAVIEST IN THE
COASTAL RANGE AS RED MOUND HAS ALREADY RECEIVED OVER SIX TENTHS OF
AN INCH IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND MORE THAN THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH
AT QUAIL PRAIRIE. RAIN WILL SPREAD FURTHER INLAND DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH A SNOW LEVEL
AROUND 6000 TO 6500 FEET.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES THROUGH
THE MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO CREATE GUSTY BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BE STRONGEST AT THE
COAST, IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD
FRONT...AT THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND ON THE EAST SIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE SNOW LEVEL FALLS FROM AROUND 5500 FEET TO AROUND 3000
TO 3500 FEET MSL. THUS, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ON THE MAJOR
HIGHWAY PASSES THAT ARE ABOVE 3500 FEET IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. I BLENDED THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BUT
LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE WETTER 12Z GFS WITH A FORECAST OF UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW LEVEL
WILL REACH ITS LOW POINT ON FRIDAY MORNING THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
RISE TO AROUND 4000 FEET ON THE WEST SIDE AND 5000 FEET ON THE
EAST SIDE. SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A RIDGE BRIEFLY NUDGES NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION.

THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LOWERED FOR SATURDAY
WITH MOST LIKELY ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT COASTAL AND UMPQUA VALLEY
SHOWERS IN A MOIST LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT FROM DAY-TO-DAY WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT BUT HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW CONSISTENCY IN
TIMING IT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH TRENDED A
BIT WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT BUT I WOULD NOT CALL IT WEAK. RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST SIDE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SNOW
LEVEL AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FEET BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHTER
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. /DW

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE EC...GFS...AND DGEX MODELS ALL SHOW A BROAD RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST MONDAY MORNING. THE EC SOLUTION SHOWS 500 MB HEIGHTS ABOUT
60-90M LOWER THAN THAN THE GFS/DGEX...BUT OTHERWISE THEY ARE PRETTY
MUCH THE SAME.

GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FLAT NATURE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT PLENTY OF
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA BUT NO PRECIPITATION. MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE REFLECTS THE HEIGHT DISPARITY BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS/DGEX
WITH THE FORMER DEPICTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND TEMPERATURES
AND THE LATTER SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT DOES SO IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH
BETWEEN 130W AND 150W.  500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA WILL RISE QUITE
A BIT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO EXPECT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A
WARMING TREND.

THE UNCERTAINTY FACTOR IN THE FORECAST INCREASES QUITE A BIT
WEDNESDAY AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON THE FATE OF THE OFFSHORE
TROUGH. THE GFS/DGEX BRINGS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO 130W WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND THIS SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT A LAND FALLING FRONT
WEDNESDAY.  MEANWHILE THE EC KEEPS THE TROUGH OUT BETWEEN 140W AND
150W...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL INTRODUCE SOME POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL NOT GO WHOLE HOG YET. /JRS


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INITIALLY EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS
ALONG THE COAST.  THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE
CASCADES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING
OBSCURED.  THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE IMPROVING.  EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS WILL BECOME
OBSCURED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. /JRS


&&

.MARINE...UPATED AT 255 PM PDT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO VERY CHOPPY WIND GENERATED SEAS...MOSTLY NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND DECREASE LATE TONIGHT
DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS WELL. /MND


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.

$$

DW/JRS/MND







000
FXUS66 KMFR 232213
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
313 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT,
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A WARM FRONT IS IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN EXTENDING INTO DOUGLAS, WESTERN PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND
SISKIYOU COUNTIES...AND ALSO INTO WESTERN KLAMATH, AND WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF JACKSON COUNTY. RAINFALL IS HEAVIEST IN THE
COASTAL RANGE AS RED MOUND HAS ALREADY RECEIVED OVER SIX TENTHS OF
AN INCH IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND MORE THAN THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH
AT QUAIL PRAIRIE. RAIN WILL SPREAD FURTHER INLAND DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH A SNOW LEVEL
AROUND 6000 TO 6500 FEET.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES THROUGH
THE MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO CREATE GUSTY BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BE STRONGEST AT THE
COAST, IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD
FRONT...AT THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND ON THE EAST SIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE SNOW LEVEL FALLS FROM AROUND 5500 FEET TO AROUND 3000
TO 3500 FEET MSL. THUS, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ON THE MAJOR
HIGHWAY PASSES THAT ARE ABOVE 3500 FEET IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. I BLENDED THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BUT
LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE WETTER 12Z GFS WITH A FORECAST OF UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW LEVEL
WILL REACH ITS LOW POINT ON FRIDAY MORNING THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
RISE TO AROUND 4000 FEET ON THE WEST SIDE AND 5000 FEET ON THE
EAST SIDE. SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A RIDGE BRIEFLY NUDGES NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION.

THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LOWERED FOR SATURDAY
WITH MOST LIKELY ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT COASTAL AND UMPQUA VALLEY
SHOWERS IN A MOIST LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT FROM DAY-TO-DAY WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT BUT HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW CONSISTENCY IN
TIMING IT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH TRENDED A
BIT WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT BUT I WOULD NOT CALL IT WEAK. RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST SIDE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SNOW
LEVEL AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FEET BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHTER
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. /DW

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE EC...GFS...AND DGEX MODELS ALL SHOW A BROAD RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST MONDAY MORNING. THE EC SOLUTION SHOWS 500 MB HEIGHTS ABOUT
60-90M LOWER THAN THAN THE GFS/DGEX...BUT OTHERWISE THEY ARE PRETTY
MUCH THE SAME.

GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FLAT NATURE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT PLENTY OF
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA BUT NO PRECIPITATION. MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE REFLECTS THE HEIGHT DISPARITY BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS/DGEX
WITH THE FORMER DEPICTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND TEMPERATURES
AND THE LATTER SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT DOES SO IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH
BETWEEN 130W AND 150W.  500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA WILL RISE QUITE
A BIT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO EXPECT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A
WARMING TREND.

THE UNCERTAINTY FACTOR IN THE FORECAST INCREASES QUITE A BIT
WEDNESDAY AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON THE FATE OF THE OFFSHORE
TROUGH. THE GFS/DGEX BRINGS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO 130W WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND THIS SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT A LAND FALLING FRONT
WEDNESDAY.  MEANWHILE THE EC KEEPS THE TROUGH OUT BETWEEN 140W AND
150W...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL INTRODUCE SOME POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL NOT GO WHOLE HOG YET. /JRS


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INITIALLY EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS
ALONG THE COAST.  THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE
CASCADES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING
OBSCURED.  THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE IMPROVING.  EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS WILL BECOME
OBSCURED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. /JRS


&&

.MARINE...UPATED AT 255 PM PDT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO VERY CHOPPY WIND GENERATED SEAS...MOSTLY NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND DECREASE LATE TONIGHT
DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS WELL. /MND


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.

$$

DW/JRS/MND







000
FXUS66 KMFR 232213
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
313 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT,
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A WARM FRONT IS IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN EXTENDING INTO DOUGLAS, WESTERN PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND
SISKIYOU COUNTIES...AND ALSO INTO WESTERN KLAMATH, AND WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF JACKSON COUNTY. RAINFALL IS HEAVIEST IN THE
COASTAL RANGE AS RED MOUND HAS ALREADY RECEIVED OVER SIX TENTHS OF
AN INCH IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND MORE THAN THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH
AT QUAIL PRAIRIE. RAIN WILL SPREAD FURTHER INLAND DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH A SNOW LEVEL
AROUND 6000 TO 6500 FEET.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES THROUGH
THE MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO CREATE GUSTY BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BE STRONGEST AT THE
COAST, IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD
FRONT...AT THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND ON THE EAST SIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE SNOW LEVEL FALLS FROM AROUND 5500 FEET TO AROUND 3000
TO 3500 FEET MSL. THUS, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ON THE MAJOR
HIGHWAY PASSES THAT ARE ABOVE 3500 FEET IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. I BLENDED THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BUT
LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE WETTER 12Z GFS WITH A FORECAST OF UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW LEVEL
WILL REACH ITS LOW POINT ON FRIDAY MORNING THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
RISE TO AROUND 4000 FEET ON THE WEST SIDE AND 5000 FEET ON THE
EAST SIDE. SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A RIDGE BRIEFLY NUDGES NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION.

THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LOWERED FOR SATURDAY
WITH MOST LIKELY ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT COASTAL AND UMPQUA VALLEY
SHOWERS IN A MOIST LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT FROM DAY-TO-DAY WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT BUT HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW CONSISTENCY IN
TIMING IT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH TRENDED A
BIT WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT BUT I WOULD NOT CALL IT WEAK. RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST SIDE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SNOW
LEVEL AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FEET BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHTER
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. /DW

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE EC...GFS...AND DGEX MODELS ALL SHOW A BROAD RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST MONDAY MORNING. THE EC SOLUTION SHOWS 500 MB HEIGHTS ABOUT
60-90M LOWER THAN THAN THE GFS/DGEX...BUT OTHERWISE THEY ARE PRETTY
MUCH THE SAME.

GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FLAT NATURE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT PLENTY OF
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA BUT NO PRECIPITATION. MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE REFLECTS THE HEIGHT DISPARITY BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS/DGEX
WITH THE FORMER DEPICTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND TEMPERATURES
AND THE LATTER SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT DOES SO IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH
BETWEEN 130W AND 150W.  500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA WILL RISE QUITE
A BIT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO EXPECT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A
WARMING TREND.

THE UNCERTAINTY FACTOR IN THE FORECAST INCREASES QUITE A BIT
WEDNESDAY AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON THE FATE OF THE OFFSHORE
TROUGH. THE GFS/DGEX BRINGS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO 130W WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND THIS SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT A LAND FALLING FRONT
WEDNESDAY.  MEANWHILE THE EC KEEPS THE TROUGH OUT BETWEEN 140W AND
150W...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL INTRODUCE SOME POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL NOT GO WHOLE HOG YET. /JRS


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INITIALLY EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS
ALONG THE COAST.  THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE
CASCADES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING
OBSCURED.  THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE IMPROVING.  EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS WILL BECOME
OBSCURED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. /JRS


&&

.MARINE...UPATED AT 255 PM PDT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO VERY CHOPPY WIND GENERATED SEAS...MOSTLY NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND DECREASE LATE TONIGHT
DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS WELL. /MND


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.

$$

DW/JRS/MND







000
FXUS66 KMFR 232213
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
313 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT,
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A WARM FRONT IS IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN EXTENDING INTO DOUGLAS, WESTERN PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND
SISKIYOU COUNTIES...AND ALSO INTO WESTERN KLAMATH, AND WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF JACKSON COUNTY. RAINFALL IS HEAVIEST IN THE
COASTAL RANGE AS RED MOUND HAS ALREADY RECEIVED OVER SIX TENTHS OF
AN INCH IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND MORE THAN THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH
AT QUAIL PRAIRIE. RAIN WILL SPREAD FURTHER INLAND DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH A SNOW LEVEL
AROUND 6000 TO 6500 FEET.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES THROUGH
THE MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO CREATE GUSTY BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BE STRONGEST AT THE
COAST, IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD
FRONT...AT THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND ON THE EAST SIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE SNOW LEVEL FALLS FROM AROUND 5500 FEET TO AROUND 3000
TO 3500 FEET MSL. THUS, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ON THE MAJOR
HIGHWAY PASSES THAT ARE ABOVE 3500 FEET IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. I BLENDED THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BUT
LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE WETTER 12Z GFS WITH A FORECAST OF UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW LEVEL
WILL REACH ITS LOW POINT ON FRIDAY MORNING THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
RISE TO AROUND 4000 FEET ON THE WEST SIDE AND 5000 FEET ON THE
EAST SIDE. SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A RIDGE BRIEFLY NUDGES NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION.

THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LOWERED FOR SATURDAY
WITH MOST LIKELY ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT COASTAL AND UMPQUA VALLEY
SHOWERS IN A MOIST LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT FROM DAY-TO-DAY WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT BUT HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW CONSISTENCY IN
TIMING IT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH TRENDED A
BIT WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT BUT I WOULD NOT CALL IT WEAK. RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST SIDE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SNOW
LEVEL AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FEET BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHTER
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. /DW

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE EC...GFS...AND DGEX MODELS ALL SHOW A BROAD RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST MONDAY MORNING. THE EC SOLUTION SHOWS 500 MB HEIGHTS ABOUT
60-90M LOWER THAN THAN THE GFS/DGEX...BUT OTHERWISE THEY ARE PRETTY
MUCH THE SAME.

GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FLAT NATURE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT PLENTY OF
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA BUT NO PRECIPITATION. MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE REFLECTS THE HEIGHT DISPARITY BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS/DGEX
WITH THE FORMER DEPICTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND TEMPERATURES
AND THE LATTER SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT DOES SO IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH
BETWEEN 130W AND 150W.  500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA WILL RISE QUITE
A BIT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO EXPECT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A
WARMING TREND.

THE UNCERTAINTY FACTOR IN THE FORECAST INCREASES QUITE A BIT
WEDNESDAY AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON THE FATE OF THE OFFSHORE
TROUGH. THE GFS/DGEX BRINGS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO 130W WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND THIS SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT A LAND FALLING FRONT
WEDNESDAY.  MEANWHILE THE EC KEEPS THE TROUGH OUT BETWEEN 140W AND
150W...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL INTRODUCE SOME POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL NOT GO WHOLE HOG YET. /JRS


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INITIALLY EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS
ALONG THE COAST.  THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE
CASCADES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING
OBSCURED.  THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE IMPROVING.  EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS WILL BECOME
OBSCURED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. /JRS


&&

.MARINE...UPATED AT 255 PM PDT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO VERY CHOPPY WIND GENERATED SEAS...MOSTLY NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND DECREASE LATE TONIGHT
DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS WELL. /MND


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.

$$

DW/JRS/MND







000
FXUS66 KPDT 232128
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS
PACKAGE IS THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACNW COAST TOWARD
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ATMOSPHERE ALSO BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AN ISOLD TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES. THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WA/OR FRIDAY AND THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN
SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE LESSENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4K
FEET DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE AREA WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY...WITH PROGRESSIVE
WESTERLY FLOW TO FOLLOW.  A BREAK IN THE MOISTURE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...BUT STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE VALLEYS.  OVERALL...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
3500-4500 FEET SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING MONDAY
ONWARD.  BY MONDAY NIGHT...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN AND
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE BETWEEN 6500-7500 FEET.  AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE EXTENDED.  TEMPERATURES
WILL START OFF IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND SHOULD BE IN THE MID 70S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY
AFTER TUESDAY.  GFS MODEL HAS A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA...WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.  THUNDERSTORMS
CAN`T BE RULED OUT WITH THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.  HOWEVER...ECMWF
CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH CONTINUED WARM AND
DRY TEMPERATURES.  LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED...THEREFORE THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  NO THUNDER HAS
BEEN ADDED TO THE EXTENDED...AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
WILL GIVE THE AREA BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES THE REST OF TODAY...WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITION WILL BE
PREVALENT...THOUGH LOCALIZED HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY. TONIGHT A SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AND PUSH A WARM FRONT
INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOMEWHAT
LOWER CEILINGS.  THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
KEPT CIGS AT VFR LEVELS BUT MVFR/IFR CHANCES WILL BE GREATER
TONIGHT...THAN THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 15 KTS AFTER 03Z THIS
EVENING. STRATIFORM RAIN AT KYKM...KDLS...AND KPSC SHOULD BE DONE
WITH BY 18Z TOMORROW...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT AFTER 18Z.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  58  39  57 /  60  70  60  50
ALW  47  58  42  58 /  60  80  60  50
PSC  48  64  43  63 /  60  60  20  20
YKM  41  59  35  60 /  50  50  20  10
HRI  46  62  42  61 /  60  60  40  30
ELN  40  57  36  59 /  50  60  20  10
RDM  39  55  30  49 /  60  50  60  60
LGD  43  53  36  52 /  70  80  70  70
GCD  38  54  34  46 /  60  80  70  80
DLS  46  60  40  60 /  70  60  40  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/89/89









000
FXUS66 KPDT 232128
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS
PACKAGE IS THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACNW COAST TOWARD
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ATMOSPHERE ALSO BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AN ISOLD TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES. THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WA/OR FRIDAY AND THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN
SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE LESSENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4K
FEET DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE AREA WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY...WITH PROGRESSIVE
WESTERLY FLOW TO FOLLOW.  A BREAK IN THE MOISTURE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...BUT STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE VALLEYS.  OVERALL...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
3500-4500 FEET SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING MONDAY
ONWARD.  BY MONDAY NIGHT...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN AND
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE BETWEEN 6500-7500 FEET.  AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE EXTENDED.  TEMPERATURES
WILL START OFF IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND SHOULD BE IN THE MID 70S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY
AFTER TUESDAY.  GFS MODEL HAS A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA...WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.  THUNDERSTORMS
CAN`T BE RULED OUT WITH THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.  HOWEVER...ECMWF
CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH CONTINUED WARM AND
DRY TEMPERATURES.  LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED...THEREFORE THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  NO THUNDER HAS
BEEN ADDED TO THE EXTENDED...AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
WILL GIVE THE AREA BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES THE REST OF TODAY...WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITION WILL BE
PREVALENT...THOUGH LOCALIZED HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY. TONIGHT A SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AND PUSH A WARM FRONT
INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOMEWHAT
LOWER CEILINGS.  THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
KEPT CIGS AT VFR LEVELS BUT MVFR/IFR CHANCES WILL BE GREATER
TONIGHT...THAN THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 15 KTS AFTER 03Z THIS
EVENING. STRATIFORM RAIN AT KYKM...KDLS...AND KPSC SHOULD BE DONE
WITH BY 18Z TOMORROW...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT AFTER 18Z.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  58  39  57 /  60  70  60  50
ALW  47  58  42  58 /  60  80  60  50
PSC  48  64  43  63 /  60  60  20  20
YKM  41  59  35  60 /  50  50  20  10
HRI  46  62  42  61 /  60  60  40  30
ELN  40  57  36  59 /  50  60  20  10
RDM  39  55  30  49 /  60  50  60  60
LGD  43  53  36  52 /  70  80  70  70
GCD  38  54  34  46 /  60  80  70  80
DLS  46  60  40  60 /  70  60  40  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/89/89








000
FXUS66 KPQR 232120
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING FOR CONTINUED FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL
APPROACH VANCOUVER ISLAND TODAY THEN STALL NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
WEAKEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PARENT UPPER LOW OR TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING ONSHORE AND THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MORE SHOWERS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS TRANSITIONED TO A WARM
FRONT REMAINED DRAPED OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND A GOOD PART OF
NORTHWEST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS NOW MERGING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE MAIN COLD FRONT WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING STRONG LOW.

THIS NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT...AND THE MODELS HAVE SOME PRETTY DECENT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WITH IT. IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING...BUT IT
WILL BE QUITE WET. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OF 1 TO
2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
0.5 TO 1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS.

SNOW LEVELS ARE SLOW TO RISE IN THE CASCADES AHEAD OF AND WITH THE
WARM FRONT...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
WITH A BIT HIGHER SNOW LEVEL...CLOSER TO 5000 FEET. THUS IT WILL
BEGIN RAINING TONIGHT AT THE PASSES...BUT SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS
COULD STILL GET SOME DECENT AMOUNTS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED 995 MB LOW WILL APPROACH VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN STALL NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH GRADIENT ALONG
OUR COAST FOR GALES IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP...BUT SOME HEADLANDS MAY GET CLOSE.

WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MODEL LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOOK A LITTLE WEAK FOR THUNDER BUT WE
SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME SMALL HAIL...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
BIT OF A CAP AT 700 MB AS THE MAIN COLDER AIR ALOFT IS STILL
OFFSHORE. ON FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AND THUNDER CHANCES LOOK A
BIT BETTER AS TEMPS AT 500 MB FALL TO MINUS 28 DEG C.

WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER RIDGING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY
SUNDAY BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH
THE FCST AREA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON MON...BUT THE TREND
WILL BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
PAC NW. RIGHT NOW...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT TUE WILL BE WARM
AND DRY WITH THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LATEST FCST PACKAGE. MODEL UNCERTAINTY BEGINS
TO INCREASE WED...AS THE 12Z GFS AND SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE
THAT A TROF OVER THE NE PAC WILL SPLIT...WITH THE NORTHERN ENERGY
PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW WED AS AN OPEN TROF. THE 12Z ECMWF MAINTAINS
A NE PAC CLOSED LOW THAT HARDLY MOVES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING RIDGING TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PAC NW FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ON WED DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY. PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
BEST CONDITIONS ARE S OF KSLE...WHERE AREAS OF VFR WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 00Z...THEN MVFR SPREADING INTO THOSE AREAS. MTNS/PASSES REMAIN
OBSCURED. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH GUST 35
TO 45 KT ALONG COAST/OVER COAST RANGE AFTER 02Z. WILL SEE BREEZY
CONDITIONS INLAND AS WELL...BUT NOT AS STRONG. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH TO COAST AROUND 12Z TO 14Z THU...AND THEN TO CASCADES BY 17Z.
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING AT THAT TIME. ROCKEY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF VFR CIGS FOR NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT GENERALLY MVFR AFTER 00Z AS RAIN INCREASES. MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WITH TURN TO SW TO
W WINDS AROUND 15Z THU. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING 990 MB LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
VANCOUVER ISL OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WARM FRONT NOW LIFTING ACROSS
THE N ORE/S WASH COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTY
30 TO 40 KT THIS EVENING.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT. WILL HAVE SOLID S WIND 25 TO 35 KT...WITH 35 TO 45 KT WIND
GUSTS LIKELY...PRIMARILY WITHIN 20 NM OF COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS
SHOULD END AROUND DAYBREAK THU...BUT WILL KEEP THE KEEP THE CURRENT
TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE HEADLINE AS IS...IN CASE THIS SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN A FEW HOURS. ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE INTO THE 30 TO
35 KT RANGE.

SEAS RUNNING 10 TO 13 FT TODAY...BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS LATER
TONIGHT...CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL BUILD. WILL SEE SEAS PEAK AT
15 TO 17 FT TONIGHT INTO THU AM. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THU
AND THU EVENING.ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING NOW THROUGH 11 AM THU ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
  TONIGHT AND THU.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 232120
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING FOR CONTINUED FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL
APPROACH VANCOUVER ISLAND TODAY THEN STALL NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
WEAKEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PARENT UPPER LOW OR TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING ONSHORE AND THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MORE SHOWERS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS TRANSITIONED TO A WARM
FRONT REMAINED DRAPED OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND A GOOD PART OF
NORTHWEST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS NOW MERGING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE MAIN COLD FRONT WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING STRONG LOW.

THIS NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT...AND THE MODELS HAVE SOME PRETTY DECENT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WITH IT. IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING...BUT IT
WILL BE QUITE WET. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OF 1 TO
2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
0.5 TO 1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS.

SNOW LEVELS ARE SLOW TO RISE IN THE CASCADES AHEAD OF AND WITH THE
WARM FRONT...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
WITH A BIT HIGHER SNOW LEVEL...CLOSER TO 5000 FEET. THUS IT WILL
BEGIN RAINING TONIGHT AT THE PASSES...BUT SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS
COULD STILL GET SOME DECENT AMOUNTS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED 995 MB LOW WILL APPROACH VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN STALL NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH GRADIENT ALONG
OUR COAST FOR GALES IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP...BUT SOME HEADLANDS MAY GET CLOSE.

WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MODEL LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOOK A LITTLE WEAK FOR THUNDER BUT WE
SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME SMALL HAIL...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
BIT OF A CAP AT 700 MB AS THE MAIN COLDER AIR ALOFT IS STILL
OFFSHORE. ON FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AND THUNDER CHANCES LOOK A
BIT BETTER AS TEMPS AT 500 MB FALL TO MINUS 28 DEG C.

WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER RIDGING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY
SUNDAY BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH
THE FCST AREA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON MON...BUT THE TREND
WILL BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
PAC NW. RIGHT NOW...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT TUE WILL BE WARM
AND DRY WITH THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LATEST FCST PACKAGE. MODEL UNCERTAINTY BEGINS
TO INCREASE WED...AS THE 12Z GFS AND SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE
THAT A TROF OVER THE NE PAC WILL SPLIT...WITH THE NORTHERN ENERGY
PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW WED AS AN OPEN TROF. THE 12Z ECMWF MAINTAINS
A NE PAC CLOSED LOW THAT HARDLY MOVES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING RIDGING TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PAC NW FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ON WED DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY. PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
BEST CONDITIONS ARE S OF KSLE...WHERE AREAS OF VFR WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 00Z...THEN MVFR SPREADING INTO THOSE AREAS. MTNS/PASSES REMAIN
OBSCURED. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH GUST 35
TO 45 KT ALONG COAST/OVER COAST RANGE AFTER 02Z. WILL SEE BREEZY
CONDITIONS INLAND AS WELL...BUT NOT AS STRONG. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH TO COAST AROUND 12Z TO 14Z THU...AND THEN TO CASCADES BY 17Z.
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING AT THAT TIME. ROCKEY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF VFR CIGS FOR NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT GENERALLY MVFR AFTER 00Z AS RAIN INCREASES. MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WITH TURN TO SW TO
W WINDS AROUND 15Z THU. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING 990 MB LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
VANCOUVER ISL OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WARM FRONT NOW LIFTING ACROSS
THE N ORE/S WASH COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTY
30 TO 40 KT THIS EVENING.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT. WILL HAVE SOLID S WIND 25 TO 35 KT...WITH 35 TO 45 KT WIND
GUSTS LIKELY...PRIMARILY WITHIN 20 NM OF COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS
SHOULD END AROUND DAYBREAK THU...BUT WILL KEEP THE KEEP THE CURRENT
TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE HEADLINE AS IS...IN CASE THIS SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN A FEW HOURS. ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE INTO THE 30 TO
35 KT RANGE.

SEAS RUNNING 10 TO 13 FT TODAY...BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS LATER
TONIGHT...CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL BUILD. WILL SEE SEAS PEAK AT
15 TO 17 FT TONIGHT INTO THU AM. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THU
AND THU EVENING.ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING NOW THROUGH 11 AM THU ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
  TONIGHT AND THU.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS65 KBOI 232046
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
246 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WAS ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED LIGHT
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED IN THE NORTH...BUT RADAR IMAGERY
WAS DEPICTING SHOWERS SOUTH TO THE ID/NV BORDER. THE ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE WAVE PASSES
BY TO THE EAST. NEXT AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE THE
UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS STILL STRENGTHENING IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA. PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY SPREADING INTO
THE PACNW AHEAD OF IT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL GRADUALLY WORK
EASTWARD INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AT AROUND 5000 FEET THEN RISE
TO AROUND 6000 FEET LATER THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL IN THE AFTERNOON...STILL LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF SE OREGON/SW IDAHO. UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TOWARD THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AHEAD OF IT...THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS THE REGION. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF UP
TO A HALF INCH IN THE VALLEYS AND A HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE
MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED. SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COOL UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TO THE EAST. EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE RIVER MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WHILE
THE SLOWER NORTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTHERN
IDAHO FOR CHANCE POPS. SUNDAY A WEAKER THROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW THAT WILL HELP PUSH THE PREVIOUS TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
IDAHO TO THE EAST AND WILL SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
OVER ALL FORECAST ZONES FOR SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY TUESDAY ON HOW STRONG THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET SO
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE BY
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AROUND 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT COULD SEE EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. WARM FRONT WILL BE
MOVING NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z. AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES OVER THE REGION MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED WITH AREAS OF
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS AOA 4500 FEET MSL.
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 5-15 KNOTS.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AROUND 30 KNOTS UP THROUGH
10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 232046
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
246 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WAS ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED LIGHT
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED IN THE NORTH...BUT RADAR IMAGERY
WAS DEPICTING SHOWERS SOUTH TO THE ID/NV BORDER. THE ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE WAVE PASSES
BY TO THE EAST. NEXT AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE THE
UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS STILL STRENGTHENING IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA. PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY SPREADING INTO
THE PACNW AHEAD OF IT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL GRADUALLY WORK
EASTWARD INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AT AROUND 5000 FEET THEN RISE
TO AROUND 6000 FEET LATER THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL IN THE AFTERNOON...STILL LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF SE OREGON/SW IDAHO. UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TOWARD THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AHEAD OF IT...THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS THE REGION. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF UP
TO A HALF INCH IN THE VALLEYS AND A HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE
MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED. SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COOL UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TO THE EAST. EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE RIVER MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WHILE
THE SLOWER NORTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTHERN
IDAHO FOR CHANCE POPS. SUNDAY A WEAKER THROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW THAT WILL HELP PUSH THE PREVIOUS TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
IDAHO TO THE EAST AND WILL SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
OVER ALL FORECAST ZONES FOR SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY TUESDAY ON HOW STRONG THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET SO
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE BY
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AROUND 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT COULD SEE EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. WARM FRONT WILL BE
MOVING NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z. AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES OVER THE REGION MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED WITH AREAS OF
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS AOA 4500 FEET MSL.
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 5-15 KNOTS.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AROUND 30 KNOTS UP THROUGH
10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS66 KPDT 231738 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1038 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE WA/OR CASCADES. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING AND THIS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM ON THE PACNW TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING SHOWERS EXPECTED TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND THE PRESENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
WILL GIVE THE AREA BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. VFR CONDITION WILL BE PREVALENT...THOUGH
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR LEVELS BRIEFLY. THIS
EVENING A SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AND PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CEILINGS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
HAVE KEPT CIGS AT VFR LEVELS BUT MVFR/IFR CHANCES WILL BE GREATER
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE INCREASED AROUND
10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 15 KTS
AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING. WEBER

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 500 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING CAUSING VARYING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AND SLOP OVER FAVORED AREAS. AN
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS, THOUGH
PROBABILITIES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SWING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING THURSDAY. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE CURRENT HIGH CHANCES OF
PRECIP FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL INDICATE
POST-FRONTAL LOWER POPS IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES THURSDAY MORNING
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE AFFECTS. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
RISE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS STRONGER SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT FOOTHILLS, THE
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, AS WELL AS GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES. BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
TODAY AND THURSDAY. 90

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LINGERING INSTABILITY SHOULD
LEAD TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE MAINLY DRY WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES.
THE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EARLY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY WILL SEE A TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THE AREA AND ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 4000 FEET
THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH THE WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WILL ONLY HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL SINK FAR TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DRY OUT WHILE THE MOUNTAINS
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AT
4000 TO 4500 FEET. THE TROUGH LEAVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN
DRYING OUT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND PERHAPS BRUSHING THE WASHINGTON CASCADE
CREST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS
POINT WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING A RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MORE
DRY WEATHER WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST AND SENDS
A SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  56  45  61  41 /  50  60  70  60
ALW  57  48  61  44 /  60  60  80  60
PSC  62  49  66  47 /  30  60  60  20
YKM  59  43  62  38 /  20  50  50  20
HRI  59  47  65  44 /  30  60  60  40
ELN  57  41  60  36 /  20  50  60  20
RDM  56  38  58  32 /  30  60  50  60
LGD  55  44  56  38 /  50  70  80  70
GCD  55  39  57  36 /  40  60  80  70
DLS  59  46  63  42 /  50  70  60  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/







000
FXUS66 KPDT 231738 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1038 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE WA/OR CASCADES. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING AND THIS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM ON THE PACNW TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING SHOWERS EXPECTED TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND THE PRESENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
WILL GIVE THE AREA BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. VFR CONDITION WILL BE PREVALENT...THOUGH
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR LEVELS BRIEFLY. THIS
EVENING A SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AND PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CEILINGS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
HAVE KEPT CIGS AT VFR LEVELS BUT MVFR/IFR CHANCES WILL BE GREATER
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE INCREASED AROUND
10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 15 KTS
AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING. WEBER

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 500 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING CAUSING VARYING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AND SLOP OVER FAVORED AREAS. AN
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS, THOUGH
PROBABILITIES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SWING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING THURSDAY. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE CURRENT HIGH CHANCES OF
PRECIP FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL INDICATE
POST-FRONTAL LOWER POPS IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES THURSDAY MORNING
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE AFFECTS. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
RISE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS STRONGER SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT FOOTHILLS, THE
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, AS WELL AS GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES. BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
TODAY AND THURSDAY. 90

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LINGERING INSTABILITY SHOULD
LEAD TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE MAINLY DRY WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES.
THE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EARLY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY WILL SEE A TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THE AREA AND ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 4000 FEET
THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH THE WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WILL ONLY HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL SINK FAR TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DRY OUT WHILE THE MOUNTAINS
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AT
4000 TO 4500 FEET. THE TROUGH LEAVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN
DRYING OUT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND PERHAPS BRUSHING THE WASHINGTON CASCADE
CREST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS
POINT WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING A RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MORE
DRY WEATHER WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST AND SENDS
A SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  56  45  61  41 /  50  60  70  60
ALW  57  48  61  44 /  60  60  80  60
PSC  62  49  66  47 /  30  60  60  20
YKM  59  43  62  38 /  20  50  50  20
HRI  59  47  65  44 /  30  60  60  40
ELN  57  41  60  36 /  20  50  60  20
RDM  56  38  58  32 /  30  60  50  60
LGD  55  44  56  38 /  50  70  80  70
GCD  55  39  57  36 /  40  60  80  70
DLS  59  46  63  42 /  50  70  60  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/






000
FXUS66 KPQR 231640
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
939 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING FOR CONTINUED RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH VANCOUVER ISLAND
TODAY THEN STALL NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND WEAKEN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE PARENT UPPER LOW OR TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH TOWARD
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
ONSHORE AND THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FOR MORE
SHOWERS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...HAD DECENT SNOWS IN THE NORTH CASCADE ZONES OVERNIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
STARTING TO RISE LATER TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND A GOOD PART OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND IS
TRANSITIONING TO A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THUS EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY...WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE OR AMOUNT DOWN NEAR LANE COUNTY.

THE NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT...
AND THE MODELS HAVE SOME PRETTY DECENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. IT WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING...BUT IT WILL BE QUITE WET. SNOW
LEVELS ARE SLOW TO RISE...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT WITH A BIT HIGHER SNOW LEVEL...CLOSER TO 5000 FEET. THUS
IT WILL BEGIN RAINING TONIGHT AT THE PASSES...BUT SKI RESORT
ELEVATIONS COULD STILL GET SOME DECENT AMOUNTS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED 995 MB LOW WILL APPROACH VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN STALL NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH GRADIENT ALONG
OUR COAST FOR GALES IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP...BUT SOME HEADLANDS MAY GET CLOSE.

WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODEL
LI VALUES LOOK A LITTLE WEAK FOR THUNDER BUT WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL. ON FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH AND THUNDER CHANCES LOOK A BIT BETTER. WILL ADDRESS THAT THIS
AFTERNOON. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS
GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.
&&

.AVIATION...MOIST AND DANK TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE. WARM FRONT
PUSHING INTO REGION WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. S OF KSLE OVER INTERIOR...CIGS RUNNING MORE TOWARDS
LOWER VFR THIS AM...BUT CIGS THERE WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AS
RAIN INCREASES. MTNS CONTINUALLY OBSCURED...SO NOT GREAT DAY FOR
FLYING. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 45 KT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
COAST RANGE AFTER 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LITTLE CHANGE TODAY...AS MVFR WITH BRIEF BOUTS
OF VFR CIGS. RAIN WILL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TONIGHT. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING 990 MB LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
VANCOUVER ISL OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND THIS EVENING... WITH
SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS DEVELOPING...MAINLY S OF TILLAMOOK.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS
EVENING...CAUSING A COASTAL JET TO INTENSIFY WITH SOLID SOUTH 35 TO
45 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS
SHOULD END AROUND DAYBREAK THU...BUT WILL KEEP THE KEEP THE CURRENT
TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE HEADLINE AS IS...IN CASE THIS SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN A FEW HOURS. ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE INTO THE
30 TO 35 KT RANGE.

SEAS RUNNING 10 TO 12 FT THIS AM...BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL BUILD. WILL SEE SEAS
BUILD TO 15 TO 17 FT TONIGHT AND HOLD INTO THU AM. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THU AND THU EVENING. ROCKEY.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
     3500 FEET AND UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY MORNING ABOVE 5000
     FEET FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
     3500 FEET AND UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY MORNING ABOVE 5000
     FEET FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU AM ON ALL
 COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231640
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
939 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING FOR CONTINUED RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH VANCOUVER ISLAND
TODAY THEN STALL NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND WEAKEN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE PARENT UPPER LOW OR TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH TOWARD
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
ONSHORE AND THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FOR MORE
SHOWERS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...HAD DECENT SNOWS IN THE NORTH CASCADE ZONES OVERNIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
STARTING TO RISE LATER TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND A GOOD PART OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND IS
TRANSITIONING TO A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THUS EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY...WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE OR AMOUNT DOWN NEAR LANE COUNTY.

THE NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT...
AND THE MODELS HAVE SOME PRETTY DECENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. IT WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING...BUT IT WILL BE QUITE WET. SNOW
LEVELS ARE SLOW TO RISE...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT WITH A BIT HIGHER SNOW LEVEL...CLOSER TO 5000 FEET. THUS
IT WILL BEGIN RAINING TONIGHT AT THE PASSES...BUT SKI RESORT
ELEVATIONS COULD STILL GET SOME DECENT AMOUNTS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED 995 MB LOW WILL APPROACH VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN STALL NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH GRADIENT ALONG
OUR COAST FOR GALES IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP...BUT SOME HEADLANDS MAY GET CLOSE.

WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODEL
LI VALUES LOOK A LITTLE WEAK FOR THUNDER BUT WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL. ON FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH AND THUNDER CHANCES LOOK A BIT BETTER. WILL ADDRESS THAT THIS
AFTERNOON. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS
GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.
&&

.AVIATION...MOIST AND DANK TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE. WARM FRONT
PUSHING INTO REGION WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. S OF KSLE OVER INTERIOR...CIGS RUNNING MORE TOWARDS
LOWER VFR THIS AM...BUT CIGS THERE WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AS
RAIN INCREASES. MTNS CONTINUALLY OBSCURED...SO NOT GREAT DAY FOR
FLYING. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 45 KT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
COAST RANGE AFTER 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LITTLE CHANGE TODAY...AS MVFR WITH BRIEF BOUTS
OF VFR CIGS. RAIN WILL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TONIGHT. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING 990 MB LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
VANCOUVER ISL OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND THIS EVENING... WITH
SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS DEVELOPING...MAINLY S OF TILLAMOOK.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS
EVENING...CAUSING A COASTAL JET TO INTENSIFY WITH SOLID SOUTH 35 TO
45 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS
SHOULD END AROUND DAYBREAK THU...BUT WILL KEEP THE KEEP THE CURRENT
TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE HEADLINE AS IS...IN CASE THIS SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN A FEW HOURS. ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE INTO THE
30 TO 35 KT RANGE.

SEAS RUNNING 10 TO 12 FT THIS AM...BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL BUILD. WILL SEE SEAS
BUILD TO 15 TO 17 FT TONIGHT AND HOLD INTO THU AM. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THU AND THU EVENING. ROCKEY.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
     3500 FEET AND UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY MORNING ABOVE 5000
     FEET FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
     3500 FEET AND UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY MORNING ABOVE 5000
     FEET FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU AM ON ALL
 COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231640
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
939 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING FOR CONTINUED RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH VANCOUVER ISLAND
TODAY THEN STALL NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND WEAKEN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE PARENT UPPER LOW OR TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH TOWARD
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
ONSHORE AND THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FOR MORE
SHOWERS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...HAD DECENT SNOWS IN THE NORTH CASCADE ZONES OVERNIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
STARTING TO RISE LATER TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND A GOOD PART OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND IS
TRANSITIONING TO A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THUS EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY...WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE OR AMOUNT DOWN NEAR LANE COUNTY.

THE NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT...
AND THE MODELS HAVE SOME PRETTY DECENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. IT WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING...BUT IT WILL BE QUITE WET. SNOW
LEVELS ARE SLOW TO RISE...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT WITH A BIT HIGHER SNOW LEVEL...CLOSER TO 5000 FEET. THUS
IT WILL BEGIN RAINING TONIGHT AT THE PASSES...BUT SKI RESORT
ELEVATIONS COULD STILL GET SOME DECENT AMOUNTS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED 995 MB LOW WILL APPROACH VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN STALL NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH GRADIENT ALONG
OUR COAST FOR GALES IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP...BUT SOME HEADLANDS MAY GET CLOSE.

WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODEL
LI VALUES LOOK A LITTLE WEAK FOR THUNDER BUT WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL. ON FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH AND THUNDER CHANCES LOOK A BIT BETTER. WILL ADDRESS THAT THIS
AFTERNOON. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS
GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.
&&

.AVIATION...MOIST AND DANK TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE. WARM FRONT
PUSHING INTO REGION WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. S OF KSLE OVER INTERIOR...CIGS RUNNING MORE TOWARDS
LOWER VFR THIS AM...BUT CIGS THERE WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AS
RAIN INCREASES. MTNS CONTINUALLY OBSCURED...SO NOT GREAT DAY FOR
FLYING. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 45 KT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
COAST RANGE AFTER 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LITTLE CHANGE TODAY...AS MVFR WITH BRIEF BOUTS
OF VFR CIGS. RAIN WILL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TONIGHT. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING 990 MB LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
VANCOUVER ISL OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND THIS EVENING... WITH
SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS DEVELOPING...MAINLY S OF TILLAMOOK.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS
EVENING...CAUSING A COASTAL JET TO INTENSIFY WITH SOLID SOUTH 35 TO
45 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS
SHOULD END AROUND DAYBREAK THU...BUT WILL KEEP THE KEEP THE CURRENT
TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE HEADLINE AS IS...IN CASE THIS SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN A FEW HOURS. ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE INTO THE
30 TO 35 KT RANGE.

SEAS RUNNING 10 TO 12 FT THIS AM...BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL BUILD. WILL SEE SEAS
BUILD TO 15 TO 17 FT TONIGHT AND HOLD INTO THU AM. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THU AND THU EVENING. ROCKEY.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
     3500 FEET AND UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY MORNING ABOVE 5000
     FEET FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
     3500 FEET AND UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY MORNING ABOVE 5000
     FEET FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU AM ON ALL
 COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231640
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
939 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING FOR CONTINUED RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH VANCOUVER ISLAND
TODAY THEN STALL NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND WEAKEN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE PARENT UPPER LOW OR TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH TOWARD
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
ONSHORE AND THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FOR MORE
SHOWERS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...HAD DECENT SNOWS IN THE NORTH CASCADE ZONES OVERNIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
STARTING TO RISE LATER TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND A GOOD PART OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND IS
TRANSITIONING TO A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THUS EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY...WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE OR AMOUNT DOWN NEAR LANE COUNTY.

THE NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT...
AND THE MODELS HAVE SOME PRETTY DECENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. IT WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING...BUT IT WILL BE QUITE WET. SNOW
LEVELS ARE SLOW TO RISE...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT WITH A BIT HIGHER SNOW LEVEL...CLOSER TO 5000 FEET. THUS
IT WILL BEGIN RAINING TONIGHT AT THE PASSES...BUT SKI RESORT
ELEVATIONS COULD STILL GET SOME DECENT AMOUNTS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED 995 MB LOW WILL APPROACH VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN STALL NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH GRADIENT ALONG
OUR COAST FOR GALES IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP...BUT SOME HEADLANDS MAY GET CLOSE.

WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODEL
LI VALUES LOOK A LITTLE WEAK FOR THUNDER BUT WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL. ON FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH AND THUNDER CHANCES LOOK A BIT BETTER. WILL ADDRESS THAT THIS
AFTERNOON. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS
GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.
&&

.AVIATION...MOIST AND DANK TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE. WARM FRONT
PUSHING INTO REGION WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. S OF KSLE OVER INTERIOR...CIGS RUNNING MORE TOWARDS
LOWER VFR THIS AM...BUT CIGS THERE WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AS
RAIN INCREASES. MTNS CONTINUALLY OBSCURED...SO NOT GREAT DAY FOR
FLYING. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 45 KT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
COAST RANGE AFTER 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LITTLE CHANGE TODAY...AS MVFR WITH BRIEF BOUTS
OF VFR CIGS. RAIN WILL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TONIGHT. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING 990 MB LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
VANCOUVER ISL OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND THIS EVENING... WITH
SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS DEVELOPING...MAINLY S OF TILLAMOOK.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS
EVENING...CAUSING A COASTAL JET TO INTENSIFY WITH SOLID SOUTH 35 TO
45 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS
SHOULD END AROUND DAYBREAK THU...BUT WILL KEEP THE KEEP THE CURRENT
TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE HEADLINE AS IS...IN CASE THIS SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN A FEW HOURS. ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE INTO THE
30 TO 35 KT RANGE.

SEAS RUNNING 10 TO 12 FT THIS AM...BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL BUILD. WILL SEE SEAS
BUILD TO 15 TO 17 FT TONIGHT AND HOLD INTO THU AM. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THU AND THU EVENING. ROCKEY.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
     3500 FEET AND UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY MORNING ABOVE 5000
     FEET FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
     3500 FEET AND UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY MORNING ABOVE 5000
     FEET FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU AM ON ALL
 COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KMFR 231601
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
901 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z NAM IS IN AND THE GFS DATA HAS BEGUN TO
ARRIVE. THE NAM SUPPORTS THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST BUT THERE
ARE A FEW ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST THAT WILL A FOCUS FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. NAMELY, THE QUANTITY OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING
WITH A WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT THEN BOTH THE
QPF AND THE SPEED OF GUSTY WINDS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY. THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THEN CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A COLDER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY
MORNING. A FEW LIGHT OVERRUNNING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST
OREGON ON SATURDAY BUT A WARMING TREND WILL GET OFF TO A BARELY
NOTICEABLE START WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND ITS
STRENGTH HAS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 23/12Z TAF CYCLE...LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE WEST OF THE CASCADES TODAY...WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WEST OF THE CASCADES BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONT ENTERS THE REGION LATER TODAY. AS A
RESULT...RAIN...MVFR CEILINGS...AND LOW LEVEL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
WILL RETURN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SIDE AS WELL AS THE COAST
AND COASTAL WATERS. FREEZING LEVELS OVER AROUND 3500 FT WILL RISE
TO NEAR 5000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON. -SVEN

&&

.MARINE...WEST SWELLS OF AROUND 10 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
STEEP SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTH AND START TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS A
STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE LATE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH. WINDS
DECREASE BRIEFLY LATER TODAY BUT THEN PICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STEEP SEAS AS WIND WAVES AND CONTINUED WEST
SWELL BUILD INTO HIGH, CONFUSED AND CHOPPY SEAS. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AS WELL. SVEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAK RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS ON IT`S WAY AND STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING, THEN
SPREADING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF IT
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST, COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN CASCADES.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE ABOVE ALL PASS LEVELS TO 6000-6500 FEET BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 6000-6500 FEET THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA.

WHATEVER WEAK RIDGING IS LEFT WILL SHIFT EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING, THEN PUSH
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS START OUT NEAR 6000 FEET, BUT
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000-5500 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE
COOLEST AIR MASS STILL OFFSHORE BY THEN. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE CASCADES, BUT WERE NOT EXPECTING THEM TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -28 AND
-31 C WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEGREES C/KM MOVING IN. FOR THE
REASONS NOTED ABOVE, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WATERS INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN
CAL, SO PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ALONG WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND WEAK
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE OFFSHORE AND THE EC AND GFS ARE IN SIMILAR
AGREEMENT BRINGING THAT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
REMAINS CONSISTENT, THEN WE COULD CATCH A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WITH
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD TO
REFLECT THIS, BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN FURTHER.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-370-376.

$$

DW/JRS







000
FXUS66 KMFR 231601
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
901 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z NAM IS IN AND THE GFS DATA HAS BEGUN TO
ARRIVE. THE NAM SUPPORTS THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST BUT THERE
ARE A FEW ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST THAT WILL A FOCUS FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. NAMELY, THE QUANTITY OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING
WITH A WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT THEN BOTH THE
QPF AND THE SPEED OF GUSTY WINDS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY. THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THEN CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A COLDER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY
MORNING. A FEW LIGHT OVERRUNNING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST
OREGON ON SATURDAY BUT A WARMING TREND WILL GET OFF TO A BARELY
NOTICEABLE START WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND ITS
STRENGTH HAS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 23/12Z TAF CYCLE...LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE WEST OF THE CASCADES TODAY...WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WEST OF THE CASCADES BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONT ENTERS THE REGION LATER TODAY. AS A
RESULT...RAIN...MVFR CEILINGS...AND LOW LEVEL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
WILL RETURN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SIDE AS WELL AS THE COAST
AND COASTAL WATERS. FREEZING LEVELS OVER AROUND 3500 FT WILL RISE
TO NEAR 5000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON. -SVEN

&&

.MARINE...WEST SWELLS OF AROUND 10 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
STEEP SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTH AND START TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS A
STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE LATE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH. WINDS
DECREASE BRIEFLY LATER TODAY BUT THEN PICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STEEP SEAS AS WIND WAVES AND CONTINUED WEST
SWELL BUILD INTO HIGH, CONFUSED AND CHOPPY SEAS. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AS WELL. SVEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAK RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS ON IT`S WAY AND STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING, THEN
SPREADING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF IT
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST, COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN CASCADES.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE ABOVE ALL PASS LEVELS TO 6000-6500 FEET BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 6000-6500 FEET THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA.

WHATEVER WEAK RIDGING IS LEFT WILL SHIFT EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING, THEN PUSH
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS START OUT NEAR 6000 FEET, BUT
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000-5500 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE
COOLEST AIR MASS STILL OFFSHORE BY THEN. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE CASCADES, BUT WERE NOT EXPECTING THEM TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -28 AND
-31 C WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEGREES C/KM MOVING IN. FOR THE
REASONS NOTED ABOVE, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WATERS INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN
CAL, SO PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ALONG WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND WEAK
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE OFFSHORE AND THE EC AND GFS ARE IN SIMILAR
AGREEMENT BRINGING THAT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
REMAINS CONSISTENT, THEN WE COULD CATCH A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WITH
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD TO
REFLECT THIS, BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN FURTHER.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-370-376.

$$

DW/JRS






000
FXUS66 KPDT 231559 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
855 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE WA/OR CASCADES. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING AND THIS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM ON THE PACNW TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING SHOWERS EXPECTED TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND THE PRESENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 500 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING CAUSING VARYING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AND SLOP OVER FAVORED AREAS. AN
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS, THOUGH
PROBABILITIES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SWING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING THURSDAY. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE CURRENT HIGH CHANCES OF
PRECIP FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL INDICATE
POST-FRONTAL LOWER POPS IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES THURSDAY MORNING
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE AFFECTS. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
RISE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS STRONGER SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT FOOTHILLS, THE
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, AS WELL AS GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES. BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
TODAY AND THURSDAY. 90

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LINGERING INSTABILITY SHOULD
LEAD TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE MAINLY DRY WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES.
THE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EARLY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY WILL SEE A TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THE AREA AND ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 4000 FEET
THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH THE WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WILL ONLY HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL SINK FAR TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DRY OUT WHILE THE MOUNTAINS
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AT
4000 TO 4500 FEET. THE TROUGH LEAVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN
DRYING OUT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND PERHAPS BRUSHING THE WASHINGTON CASCADE
CREST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS
POINT WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING A RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MORE
DRY WEATHER WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST AND SENDS
A SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
WILL GIVE THE AREA BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. VFR CONDITION WILL BE PREVALENT THOUGH
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR LEVELS BRIEFLY. THIS
EVENING A SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AND PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CEILINGS.
HAVE KEPT CIGS AT VFR LEVELS BUT MVFR/IFR CHANCES WILL BE GREATER
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS THEN DROP BELOW 15 KTS
AFTER 03Z. THIS EVENING. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  56  45  61  41 /  50  60  70  60
ALW  57  48  61  44 /  60  60  80  60
PSC  62  49  66  47 /  30  60  60  20
YKM  59  43  62  38 /  20  50  50  20
HRI  59  47  65  44 /  30  60  60  40
ELN  57  41  60  36 /  20  50  60  20
RDM  56  38  58  32 /  30  60  50  60
LGD  55  44  56  38 /  50  70  80  70
GCD  55  39  57  36 /  40  60  80  70
DLS  59  46  63  42 /  50  70  60  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/










000
FXUS66 KPDT 231559 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
855 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE WA/OR CASCADES. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING AND THIS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM ON THE PACNW TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING SHOWERS EXPECTED TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND THE PRESENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 500 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING CAUSING VARYING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AND SLOP OVER FAVORED AREAS. AN
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS, THOUGH
PROBABILITIES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SWING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING THURSDAY. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE CURRENT HIGH CHANCES OF
PRECIP FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL INDICATE
POST-FRONTAL LOWER POPS IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES THURSDAY MORNING
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE AFFECTS. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
RISE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS STRONGER SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT FOOTHILLS, THE
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, AS WELL AS GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES. BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
TODAY AND THURSDAY. 90

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LINGERING INSTABILITY SHOULD
LEAD TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE MAINLY DRY WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES.
THE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EARLY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY WILL SEE A TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THE AREA AND ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 4000 FEET
THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH THE WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WILL ONLY HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL SINK FAR TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DRY OUT WHILE THE MOUNTAINS
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AT
4000 TO 4500 FEET. THE TROUGH LEAVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN
DRYING OUT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND PERHAPS BRUSHING THE WASHINGTON CASCADE
CREST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS
POINT WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING A RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MORE
DRY WEATHER WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST AND SENDS
A SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
WILL GIVE THE AREA BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. VFR CONDITION WILL BE PREVALENT THOUGH
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR LEVELS BRIEFLY. THIS
EVENING A SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AND PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CEILINGS.
HAVE KEPT CIGS AT VFR LEVELS BUT MVFR/IFR CHANCES WILL BE GREATER
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS THEN DROP BELOW 15 KTS
AFTER 03Z. THIS EVENING. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  56  45  61  41 /  50  60  70  60
ALW  57  48  61  44 /  60  60  80  60
PSC  62  49  66  47 /  30  60  60  20
YKM  59  43  62  38 /  20  50  50  20
HRI  59  47  65  44 /  30  60  60  40
ELN  57  41  60  36 /  20  50  60  20
RDM  56  38  58  32 /  30  60  50  60
LGD  55  44  56  38 /  50  70  80  70
GCD  55  39  57  36 /  40  60  80  70
DLS  59  46  63  42 /  50  70  60  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/










000
FXUS66 KPDT 231559 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
855 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE WA/OR CASCADES. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING AND THIS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM ON THE PACNW TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING SHOWERS EXPECTED TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND THE PRESENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 500 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING CAUSING VARYING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AND SLOP OVER FAVORED AREAS. AN
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS, THOUGH
PROBABILITIES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SWING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING THURSDAY. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE CURRENT HIGH CHANCES OF
PRECIP FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL INDICATE
POST-FRONTAL LOWER POPS IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES THURSDAY MORNING
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE AFFECTS. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
RISE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS STRONGER SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT FOOTHILLS, THE
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, AS WELL AS GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES. BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
TODAY AND THURSDAY. 90

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LINGERING INSTABILITY SHOULD
LEAD TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE MAINLY DRY WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES.
THE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EARLY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY WILL SEE A TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THE AREA AND ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 4000 FEET
THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH THE WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WILL ONLY HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL SINK FAR TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DRY OUT WHILE THE MOUNTAINS
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AT
4000 TO 4500 FEET. THE TROUGH LEAVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN
DRYING OUT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND PERHAPS BRUSHING THE WASHINGTON CASCADE
CREST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS
POINT WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING A RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MORE
DRY WEATHER WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST AND SENDS
A SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
WILL GIVE THE AREA BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. VFR CONDITION WILL BE PREVALENT THOUGH
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR LEVELS BRIEFLY. THIS
EVENING A SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AND PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CEILINGS.
HAVE KEPT CIGS AT VFR LEVELS BUT MVFR/IFR CHANCES WILL BE GREATER
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS THEN DROP BELOW 15 KTS
AFTER 03Z. THIS EVENING. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  56  45  61  41 /  50  60  70  60
ALW  57  48  61  44 /  60  60  80  60
PSC  62  49  66  47 /  30  60  60  20
YKM  59  43  62  38 /  20  50  50  20
HRI  59  47  65  44 /  30  60  60  40
ELN  57  41  60  36 /  20  50  60  20
RDM  56  38  58  32 /  30  60  50  60
LGD  55  44  56  38 /  50  70  80  70
GCD  55  39  57  36 /  40  60  80  70
DLS  59  46  63  42 /  50  70  60  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/










000
FXUS66 KPDT 231559 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
855 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE WA/OR CASCADES. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING AND THIS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM ON THE PACNW TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING SHOWERS EXPECTED TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND THE PRESENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 500 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING CAUSING VARYING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AND SLOP OVER FAVORED AREAS. AN
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS, THOUGH
PROBABILITIES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SWING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING THURSDAY. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE CURRENT HIGH CHANCES OF
PRECIP FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL INDICATE
POST-FRONTAL LOWER POPS IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES THURSDAY MORNING
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE AFFECTS. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
RISE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS STRONGER SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT FOOTHILLS, THE
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, AS WELL AS GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES. BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
TODAY AND THURSDAY. 90

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LINGERING INSTABILITY SHOULD
LEAD TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE MAINLY DRY WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES.
THE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EARLY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY WILL SEE A TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THE AREA AND ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 4000 FEET
THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH THE WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WILL ONLY HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL SINK FAR TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DRY OUT WHILE THE MOUNTAINS
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AT
4000 TO 4500 FEET. THE TROUGH LEAVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN
DRYING OUT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND PERHAPS BRUSHING THE WASHINGTON CASCADE
CREST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS
POINT WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING A RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MORE
DRY WEATHER WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST AND SENDS
A SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
WILL GIVE THE AREA BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. VFR CONDITION WILL BE PREVALENT THOUGH
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR LEVELS BRIEFLY. THIS
EVENING A SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AND PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CEILINGS.
HAVE KEPT CIGS AT VFR LEVELS BUT MVFR/IFR CHANCES WILL BE GREATER
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS THEN DROP BELOW 15 KTS
AFTER 03Z. THIS EVENING. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  56  45  61  41 /  50  60  70  60
ALW  57  48  61  44 /  60  60  80  60
PSC  62  49  66  47 /  30  60  60  20
YKM  59  43  62  38 /  20  50  50  20
HRI  59  47  65  44 /  30  60  60  40
ELN  57  41  60  36 /  20  50  60  20
RDM  56  38  58  32 /  30  60  50  60
LGD  55  44  56  38 /  50  70  80  70
GCD  55  39  57  36 /  40  60  80  70
DLS  59  46  63  42 /  50  70  60  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/










000
FXUS65 KBOI 231539
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
939 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE TREASURE VALLEY
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN LOW AND ONLY RISE TO AROUND 4000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING MCCALL. THERE IS A MINIMAL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TODAY GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-BOISE-FAIRFIELD LINE.
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH OF A KBNO-KBOI-KSUN LINE SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SOUTH OF THE
KBNO-KBOI-KSUN LINE VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING BECOMING
SOUTH TO WEST 5-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL GUSTS NEAR 25
KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH NRN ZONES TODAY
WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...THEN A STRONGER PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN INLAND IN A WARM-ADVECTION PATTERN
THURSDAY...SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 6500 FEET MSL NORTH TO 7500 FEET
SOUTH LATE THURSDAY.  WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WSWLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE IDAHO SIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY
WSWLY WINDS TODAY IN THE CENTRAL SNAKE BASIN...ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO
MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS...DECREASING TONIGHT...THEN GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALL THE MODELS
CONTINUE THE COOL AND WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND THAT THEY HAVE
BEEN ADVERTISING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WERE TO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
ALONG WITH ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL THE IDAHO ZONES DUE TO EXITING JET TO THE NORTH ACROSS
BAKER AND VALLEY COUNTIES...ALONG WITH A SECONDARY JET MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM NEVADA INTO IDAHO. SREF SHOWING 10-20 PROBS OF
THUNDER ACROSS THIS SAME AREA WITH SMALL PROBS OF 100-200 CAPE.

ECM AND GFS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGING BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO THE WEST
COAST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST AREA. DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....CR




000
FXUS65 KBOI 231539
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
939 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE TREASURE VALLEY
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN LOW AND ONLY RISE TO AROUND 4000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING MCCALL. THERE IS A MINIMAL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TODAY GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-BOISE-FAIRFIELD LINE.
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH OF A KBNO-KBOI-KSUN LINE SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SOUTH OF THE
KBNO-KBOI-KSUN LINE VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING BECOMING
SOUTH TO WEST 5-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL GUSTS NEAR 25
KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH NRN ZONES TODAY
WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...THEN A STRONGER PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN INLAND IN A WARM-ADVECTION PATTERN
THURSDAY...SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 6500 FEET MSL NORTH TO 7500 FEET
SOUTH LATE THURSDAY.  WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WSWLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE IDAHO SIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY
WSWLY WINDS TODAY IN THE CENTRAL SNAKE BASIN...ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO
MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS...DECREASING TONIGHT...THEN GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALL THE MODELS
CONTINUE THE COOL AND WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND THAT THEY HAVE
BEEN ADVERTISING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WERE TO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
ALONG WITH ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL THE IDAHO ZONES DUE TO EXITING JET TO THE NORTH ACROSS
BAKER AND VALLEY COUNTIES...ALONG WITH A SECONDARY JET MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM NEVADA INTO IDAHO. SREF SHOWING 10-20 PROBS OF
THUNDER ACROSS THIS SAME AREA WITH SMALL PROBS OF 100-200 CAPE.

ECM AND GFS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGING BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO THE WEST
COAST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST AREA. DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....CR



000
FXUS66 KMFR 231215
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
515 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAK RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS ON IT`S WAY AND STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING, THEN
SPREADING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF IT
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST, COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN CASCADES.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE ABOVE ALL PASS LEVELS TO 6000-6500 FEET BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 6000-6500 FEET THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA.

WHATEVER WEAK RIDGING IS LEFT WILL SHIFT EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING, THEN PUSH
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS START OUT NEAR 6000 FEET, BUT
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000-5500 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE
COOLEST AIR MASS STILL OFFSHORE BY THEN. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE CASCADES, BUT WERE NOT EXPECTING THEM TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -28 AND
-31 C WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEGREES C/KM MOVING IN. FOR THE
REASONS NOTED ABOVE, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WATERS INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN
CAL, SO PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ALONG WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND WEAK
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE OFFSHORE AND THE EC AND GFS ARE IN SIMILAR
AGREEMENT BRINGING THAT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
REMAINS CONSISTENT, THEN WE COULD CATCH A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WITH
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD TO
REFLECT THIS, BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN FURTHER.
-PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 23/12Z TAF CYCLE...LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE WEST OF THE CASCADES TODAY...WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WEST OF THE CASCADES BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONT ENTERS THE REGION LATER TODAY. AS A
RESULT...RAIN...MVFR CEILINGS...AND LOW LEVEL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
WILL RETURN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES. GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SIDE AS WELL AS THE COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS. FREEZING LEVELS OVER AROUND 3500 FT WILL RISE TO
NEAR 5000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON. -SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 0515 AM PDT. WEST SWELLS OF AROUND 10 FEET WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STEEP SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH AND START TO INCREASE LATER
THIS MORNING AS A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH. WINDS DECREASE BRIEFLY LATER TODAY BUT THEN PICK UP AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STEEP SEAS AS WIND WAVES AND CONTINUED
WEST SWELL BUILD INTO HIGH, CONFUSED AND CHOPPY SEAS. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM
THIS
     MORNING TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-370-376.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 231215
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
515 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAK RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS ON IT`S WAY AND STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING, THEN
SPREADING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF IT
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST, COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN CASCADES.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE ABOVE ALL PASS LEVELS TO 6000-6500 FEET BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 6000-6500 FEET THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA.

WHATEVER WEAK RIDGING IS LEFT WILL SHIFT EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING, THEN PUSH
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS START OUT NEAR 6000 FEET, BUT
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000-5500 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE
COOLEST AIR MASS STILL OFFSHORE BY THEN. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE CASCADES, BUT WERE NOT EXPECTING THEM TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -28 AND
-31 C WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEGREES C/KM MOVING IN. FOR THE
REASONS NOTED ABOVE, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WATERS INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN
CAL, SO PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ALONG WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND WEAK
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE OFFSHORE AND THE EC AND GFS ARE IN SIMILAR
AGREEMENT BRINGING THAT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
REMAINS CONSISTENT, THEN WE COULD CATCH A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WITH
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD TO
REFLECT THIS, BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN FURTHER.
-PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 23/12Z TAF CYCLE...LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE WEST OF THE CASCADES TODAY...WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WEST OF THE CASCADES BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONT ENTERS THE REGION LATER TODAY. AS A
RESULT...RAIN...MVFR CEILINGS...AND LOW LEVEL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
WILL RETURN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES. GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SIDE AS WELL AS THE COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS. FREEZING LEVELS OVER AROUND 3500 FT WILL RISE TO
NEAR 5000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON. -SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 0515 AM PDT. WEST SWELLS OF AROUND 10 FEET WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STEEP SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH AND START TO INCREASE LATER
THIS MORNING AS A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH. WINDS DECREASE BRIEFLY LATER TODAY BUT THEN PICK UP AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STEEP SEAS AS WIND WAVES AND CONTINUED
WEST SWELL BUILD INTO HIGH, CONFUSED AND CHOPPY SEAS. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM
THIS
     MORNING TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-370-376.

$$









000
FXUS66 KPDT 231201 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
500 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING CAUSING VARYING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AND SLOP OVER FAVORED AREAS. AN
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS, THOUGH
PROBABILITIES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SWING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING THURSDAY. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE CURRENT HIGH CHANCES OF
PRECIP FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL INDICATE
POST-FRONTAL LOWER POPS IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES THURSDAY MORNING
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE AFFECTS. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
RISE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS STRONGER SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT FOOTHILLS, THE
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, AS WELL AS GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES. BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
TODAY AND THURSDAY. 90


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LINGERING INSTABILITY SHOULD
LEAD TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE MAINLY DRY WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES.
THE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EARLY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY WILL SEE A TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THE AREA AND ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 4000 FEET
THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH THE WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WILL ONLY HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL SINK FAR TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DRY OUT WHILE THE MOUNTAINS
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AT
4000 TO 4500 FEET. THE TROUGH LEAVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN
DRYING OUT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND PERHAPS BRUSHING THE WASHINGTON CASCADE
CREST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS
POINT WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING A RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MORE
DRY WEATHER WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST AND SENDS
A SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
WILL GIVE THE AREA BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. VFR CONDITION WILL BE PREVALENT THOUGH
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR LEVELS BRIEFLY. THIS
EVENING A SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AND PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CEILINGS.
HAVE KEPT CIGS AT VFR LEVELS BUT MVFR/IFR CHANCES WILL BE GREATER
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS THEN DROP BELOW 15 KTS
AFTER 03Z. THIS EVENING. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  45  61  41 /  50  60  70  60
ALW  57  48  61  44 /  60  60  80  60
PSC  63  49  66  47 /  30  60  60  20
YKM  59  43  62  38 /  20  50  50  20
HRI  62  47  65  44 /  30  60  60  40
ELN  58  41  60  36 /  20  50  60  20
RDM  56  38  58  32 /  30  60  50  60
LGD  55  44  56  38 /  50  70  80  70
GCD  55  39  57  36 /  40  60  80  70
DLS  59  46  63  42 /  50  70  60  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 231201 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
500 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING CAUSING VARYING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AND SLOP OVER FAVORED AREAS. AN
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS, THOUGH
PROBABILITIES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SWING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING THURSDAY. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE CURRENT HIGH CHANCES OF
PRECIP FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL INDICATE
POST-FRONTAL LOWER POPS IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES THURSDAY MORNING
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE AFFECTS. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
RISE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS STRONGER SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT FOOTHILLS, THE
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, AS WELL AS GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES. BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
TODAY AND THURSDAY. 90


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LINGERING INSTABILITY SHOULD
LEAD TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE MAINLY DRY WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES.
THE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EARLY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY WILL SEE A TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THE AREA AND ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 4000 FEET
THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH THE WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WILL ONLY HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL SINK FAR TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DRY OUT WHILE THE MOUNTAINS
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AT
4000 TO 4500 FEET. THE TROUGH LEAVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN
DRYING OUT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND PERHAPS BRUSHING THE WASHINGTON CASCADE
CREST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS
POINT WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING A RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MORE
DRY WEATHER WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST AND SENDS
A SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
WILL GIVE THE AREA BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. VFR CONDITION WILL BE PREVALENT THOUGH
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR LEVELS BRIEFLY. THIS
EVENING A SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AND PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA
AFTER 00Z WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CEILINGS.
HAVE KEPT CIGS AT VFR LEVELS BUT MVFR/IFR CHANCES WILL BE GREATER
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS THEN DROP BELOW 15 KTS
AFTER 03Z. THIS EVENING. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  45  61  41 /  50  60  70  60
ALW  57  48  61  44 /  60  60  80  60
PSC  63  49  66  47 /  30  60  60  20
YKM  59  43  62  38 /  20  50  50  20
HRI  62  47  65  44 /  30  60  60  40
ELN  58  41  60  36 /  20  50  60  20
RDM  56  38  58  32 /  30  60  50  60
LGD  55  44  56  38 /  50  70  80  70
GCD  55  39  57  36 /  40  60  80  70
DLS  59  46  63  42 /  50  70  60  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/83






000
FXUS66 KMFR 231004
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
304 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAK RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS ON IT`S WAY AND STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING, THEN
SPREADING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF IT
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST, COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN CASCADES.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE ABOVE ALL PASS LEVELS TO 6000-6500 FEET BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 6000-6500 FEET THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA.

WHATEVER WEAK RIDGING IS LEFT WILL SHIFT EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING, THEN PUSH
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS START OUT NEAR 6000 FEET, BUT
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000-5500 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE
COOLEST AIR MASS STILL OFFSHORE BY THEN. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE CASCADES, BUT WERE NOT EXPECTING THEM TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -28 AND
-31 C WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEGREES C/KM MOVING IN. FOR THE
REASONS NOTED ABOVE, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WATERS INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN
CAL, SO PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ALONG WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND WEAK
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE OFFSHORE AND THE EC AND GFS ARE IN SIMILAR
AGREEMENT BRINGING THAT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
REMAINS CONSISTENT, THEN WE COULD CATCH A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WITH
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD TO
REFLECT THIS, BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN FURTHER.
-PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 23/06Z TAF CYCLE...LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT...WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...ASIDE FROM SOME AREAS OF MVFR
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN THAT SHOULD CLEAR BY LATE
MORNING. THE NEXT FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY...AND AS A
RESULT...RAIN...MVFR CEILINGS...AND LOW LEVEL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
WILL RETURN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES. GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SIDE. FREEZING LEVELS OVER
AROUND 3500 FT WILL RISE TO NEAR 5000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON. -BPN


&&

.MARINE...WEST SWELLS OF 8-10 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STEEP
SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTH AND START TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH. WINDS DECREASE BRIEFLY LATER
WEDNESDAY BUT THEN PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY
STEEP SEAS AS WIND WAVES AND CONTINUED WEST SWELL BUILD INTO HIGH,
CHOPPY SEAS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO
THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS
     MORNING TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-370-376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 231004
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
304 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAK RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS ON IT`S WAY AND STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING, THEN
SPREADING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF IT
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST, COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN CASCADES.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE ABOVE ALL PASS LEVELS TO 6000-6500 FEET BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 6000-6500 FEET THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA.

WHATEVER WEAK RIDGING IS LEFT WILL SHIFT EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING, THEN PUSH
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS START OUT NEAR 6000 FEET, BUT
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000-5500 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE
COOLEST AIR MASS STILL OFFSHORE BY THEN. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE CASCADES, BUT WERE NOT EXPECTING THEM TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -28 AND
-31 C WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEGREES C/KM MOVING IN. FOR THE
REASONS NOTED ABOVE, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WATERS INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN
CAL, SO PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ALONG WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND WEAK
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE OFFSHORE AND THE EC AND GFS ARE IN SIMILAR
AGREEMENT BRINGING THAT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
REMAINS CONSISTENT, THEN WE COULD CATCH A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WITH
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD TO
REFLECT THIS, BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN FURTHER.
-PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 23/06Z TAF CYCLE...LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT...WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...ASIDE FROM SOME AREAS OF MVFR
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN THAT SHOULD CLEAR BY LATE
MORNING. THE NEXT FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY...AND AS A
RESULT...RAIN...MVFR CEILINGS...AND LOW LEVEL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
WILL RETURN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES. GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SIDE. FREEZING LEVELS OVER
AROUND 3500 FT WILL RISE TO NEAR 5000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON. -BPN


&&

.MARINE...WEST SWELLS OF 8-10 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STEEP
SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTH AND START TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH. WINDS DECREASE BRIEFLY LATER
WEDNESDAY BUT THEN PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY
STEEP SEAS AS WIND WAVES AND CONTINUED WEST SWELL BUILD INTO HIGH,
CHOPPY SEAS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO
THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS
     MORNING TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-370-376.

$$






000
FXUS66 KPDT 231000
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING CAUSING VARYING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AND SLOP OVER FAVORED AREAS. AN
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS, THOUGH
PROBABILITIES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SWING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING THURSDAY. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE CURRENT HIGH CHANCES OF
PRECIP FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL INDICATE
POST-FRONTAL LOWER POPS IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES THURSDAY MORNING
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE AFFECTS. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
RISE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS STRONGER SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT FOOTHILLS, THE
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, AS WELL AS GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES. BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
TODAY AND THURSDAY. 90


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LINGERING INSTABILITY SHOULD
LEAD TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE MAINLY DRY WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES.
THE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EARLY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY WILL SEE A TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THE AREA AND ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 4000 FEET
THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH THE WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WILL ONLY HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL SINK FAR TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DRY OUT WHILE THE MOUNTAINS
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AT
4000 TO 4500 FEET. THE TROUGH LEAVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN
DRYING OUT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND PERHAPS BRUSHING THE WASHINGTON CASCADE
CREST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS
POINT WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING A RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MORE
DRY WEATHER WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST AND SENDS
A SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT THEN THEY WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY TO MOSTLY 10 TO 20 KTS AND POSSIBLY 15 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES
IN THE AFTERNOON. 88


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  45  61  41 /  50  60  70  60
ALW  57  48  61  44 /  60  60  80  60
PSC  63  49  66  47 /  30  60  60  20
YKM  59  43  62  38 /  20  50  50  20
HRI  62  47  65  44 /  30  60  60  40
ELN  58  41  60  36 /  20  50  60  20
RDM  56  38  58  32 /  30  60  50  60
LGD  55  44  56  38 /  50  70  80  70
GCD  55  39  57  36 /  40  60  80  70
DLS  59  46  63  42 /  50  70  60  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/83









000
FXUS66 KPDT 231000
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING CAUSING VARYING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AND SLOP OVER FAVORED AREAS. AN
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS, THOUGH
PROBABILITIES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SWING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING THURSDAY. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE CURRENT HIGH CHANCES OF
PRECIP FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL INDICATE
POST-FRONTAL LOWER POPS IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES THURSDAY MORNING
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE AFFECTS. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
RISE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS STRONGER SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT FOOTHILLS, THE
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, AS WELL AS GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES. BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
TODAY AND THURSDAY. 90


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LINGERING INSTABILITY SHOULD
LEAD TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE MAINLY DRY WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES.
THE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EARLY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY WILL SEE A TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THE AREA AND ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 4000 FEET
THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH THE WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WILL ONLY HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL SINK FAR TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DRY OUT WHILE THE MOUNTAINS
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AT
4000 TO 4500 FEET. THE TROUGH LEAVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN
DRYING OUT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND PERHAPS BRUSHING THE WASHINGTON CASCADE
CREST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS
POINT WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING A RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MORE
DRY WEATHER WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST AND SENDS
A SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT THEN THEY WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY TO MOSTLY 10 TO 20 KTS AND POSSIBLY 15 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES
IN THE AFTERNOON. 88


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  45  61  41 /  50  60  70  60
ALW  57  48  61  44 /  60  60  80  60
PSC  63  49  66  47 /  30  60  60  20
YKM  59  43  62  38 /  20  50  50  20
HRI  62  47  65  44 /  30  60  60  40
ELN  58  41  60  36 /  20  50  60  20
RDM  56  38  58  32 /  30  60  50  60
LGD  55  44  56  38 /  50  70  80  70
GCD  55  39  57  36 /  40  60  80  70
DLS  59  46  63  42 /  50  70  60  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/83








000
FXUS65 KBOI 230928
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
327 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH NRN ZONES TODAY
WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...THEN A STRONGER PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN INLAND IN A WARM-ADVECTION PATTERN
THURSDAY...SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 6500 FEET MSL NORTH TO 7500 FEET
SOUTH LATE THURSDAY.  WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WSWLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE IDAHO SIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY
WSWLY WINDS TODAY IN THE CENTRAL SNAKE BASIN...ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO
MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS...DECREASING TONIGHT...THEN GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALL THE MODELS
CONTINUE THE COOL AND WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND THAT THEY HAVE
BEEN ADVERTISING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WERE TO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
ALONG WITH ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL THE IDAHO ZONES DUE TO EXITING JET TO THE NORTH ACROSS
BAKER AND VALLEY COUNTIES...ALONG WITH A SECONDARY JET MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM NEVADA INTO IDAHO. SREF SHOWING 10-20 PROBS OF
THUNDER ACROSS THIS SAME AREA WITH SMALL PROBS OF 100-200 CAPE.

ECM AND GFS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGING BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO THE WEST
COAST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST AREA. DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL MVFR IN FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS KMYL THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE VFR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVE BACK INTO THE KBKE AND
KMYL AREA LATER THIS MORNING WITH KMYL BECOMING IFR-MVFR THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY WITH MTNS OBSCURED. SFC WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO
10 KTS...EXCEPT 15 KTS IN KJER/KTWF. SFC WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS. 10 KFT
WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFTING TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST
AFTER 00Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....CR
AVIATION.....CR




000
FXUS65 KBOI 230928
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
327 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH NRN ZONES TODAY
WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...THEN A STRONGER PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN INLAND IN A WARM-ADVECTION PATTERN
THURSDAY...SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 6500 FEET MSL NORTH TO 7500 FEET
SOUTH LATE THURSDAY.  WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WSWLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE IDAHO SIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY
WSWLY WINDS TODAY IN THE CENTRAL SNAKE BASIN...ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO
MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS...DECREASING TONIGHT...THEN GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALL THE MODELS
CONTINUE THE COOL AND WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND THAT THEY HAVE
BEEN ADVERTISING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WERE TO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
ALONG WITH ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL THE IDAHO ZONES DUE TO EXITING JET TO THE NORTH ACROSS
BAKER AND VALLEY COUNTIES...ALONG WITH A SECONDARY JET MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM NEVADA INTO IDAHO. SREF SHOWING 10-20 PROBS OF
THUNDER ACROSS THIS SAME AREA WITH SMALL PROBS OF 100-200 CAPE.

ECM AND GFS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGING BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO THE WEST
COAST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST AREA. DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL MVFR IN FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS KMYL THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE VFR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVE BACK INTO THE KBKE AND
KMYL AREA LATER THIS MORNING WITH KMYL BECOMING IFR-MVFR THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY WITH MTNS OBSCURED. SFC WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO
10 KTS...EXCEPT 15 KTS IN KJER/KTWF. SFC WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS. 10 KFT
WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFTING TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST
AFTER 00Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....CR
AVIATION.....CR



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230918
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST TODAY THEN LIFT N
INTO WA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND...MOVING
INLAND THU MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY PATTERN
THAT WILL LAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MODELS ALL INDICATE DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT TODAY
ON LAYERS FROM 285K THROUGH 300K...SPELLING A WET DAY TODAY. THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES UNTIL A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON
THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING LIFT RELIES MORE ON THE
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MODELS DEPICT MOVING THROUGH AS AN UPPER
TROUGH BGINS TO DIG IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
CATEGORICAL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY THROUGH THU MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A SHORT DOWN TIME ON PRECIPITATION AFTER THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND BEFORE THE DYNAMIC LIFTING KICKS IN.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE CASCADES EARLY WED MORNING SHOWED SNOW
LEVELS ON THE ORDER OF 3500 FT...AND ARE LIKELY TO LIFT ONLY SLOWLY
UNTIL THE WARM FRONT MOVES IN THIS EVENING. AT THAT POINT MODELS
SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS POP UP ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES...BRINGING AN
END TO THE ACCUMULATING SNOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH 5 PM.

INITIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP
TO SUSTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY FOR OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED MOUNTAINS. THE ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY THE
NIGHT...SO SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY RELIANT ON INSTABILITY
CREATED BY THE COOL AIR ALOFT WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH FRI.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS
GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE THIS EVENING
AS THE HEART OF A WARM FRONT SPREADS OVER THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE SOLIDLY MVFR. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND AT KHIO. HOWEVER...GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE CORE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TAF SITES FROM
FALLING INTO IFR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ONCE A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN TODAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND MORE
SOLIDLY INTO MVFR THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT SPREADS INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING 990 MB LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
VANCOUVER ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WARM FRONT SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT SPREADING OVER THE
WATERS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS EVENING...CAUSING A COASTAL
JET TO INTENSIFY WITH SOLID 35 TO 40 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITHIN
20 NM OF THE COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD END AROUND DAYBREAK...
BUT WILL KEEP THE KEEP THE CURRENT TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE
HEADLINE AS IS...IN CASE THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN A FEW HOURS.
ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE INTO THE 30 TO 35 KT
RANGE.

EXPECT SEAS TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SEAS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 12 TO 14 FT RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE MOST SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. /NEUMAN



&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230918
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST TODAY THEN LIFT N
INTO WA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND...MOVING
INLAND THU MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY PATTERN
THAT WILL LAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MODELS ALL INDICATE DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT TODAY
ON LAYERS FROM 285K THROUGH 300K...SPELLING A WET DAY TODAY. THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES UNTIL A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON
THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING LIFT RELIES MORE ON THE
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MODELS DEPICT MOVING THROUGH AS AN UPPER
TROUGH BGINS TO DIG IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
CATEGORICAL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY THROUGH THU MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A SHORT DOWN TIME ON PRECIPITATION AFTER THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND BEFORE THE DYNAMIC LIFTING KICKS IN.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE CASCADES EARLY WED MORNING SHOWED SNOW
LEVELS ON THE ORDER OF 3500 FT...AND ARE LIKELY TO LIFT ONLY SLOWLY
UNTIL THE WARM FRONT MOVES IN THIS EVENING. AT THAT POINT MODELS
SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS POP UP ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES...BRINGING AN
END TO THE ACCUMULATING SNOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH 5 PM.

INITIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP
TO SUSTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY FOR OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED MOUNTAINS. THE ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY THE
NIGHT...SO SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY RELIANT ON INSTABILITY
CREATED BY THE COOL AIR ALOFT WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH FRI.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS
GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE THIS EVENING
AS THE HEART OF A WARM FRONT SPREADS OVER THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE SOLIDLY MVFR. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND AT KHIO. HOWEVER...GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE CORE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TAF SITES FROM
FALLING INTO IFR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ONCE A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN TODAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND MORE
SOLIDLY INTO MVFR THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT SPREADS INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING 990 MB LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
VANCOUVER ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WARM FRONT SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT SPREADING OVER THE
WATERS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS EVENING...CAUSING A COASTAL
JET TO INTENSIFY WITH SOLID 35 TO 40 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITHIN
20 NM OF THE COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD END AROUND DAYBREAK...
BUT WILL KEEP THE KEEP THE CURRENT TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE
HEADLINE AS IS...IN CASE THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN A FEW HOURS.
ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE INTO THE 30 TO 35 KT
RANGE.

EXPECT SEAS TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SEAS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 12 TO 14 FT RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE MOST SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. /NEUMAN



&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230918
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST TODAY THEN LIFT N
INTO WA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND...MOVING
INLAND THU MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY PATTERN
THAT WILL LAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MODELS ALL INDICATE DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT TODAY
ON LAYERS FROM 285K THROUGH 300K...SPELLING A WET DAY TODAY. THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES UNTIL A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON
THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING LIFT RELIES MORE ON THE
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MODELS DEPICT MOVING THROUGH AS AN UPPER
TROUGH BGINS TO DIG IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
CATEGORICAL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY THROUGH THU MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A SHORT DOWN TIME ON PRECIPITATION AFTER THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND BEFORE THE DYNAMIC LIFTING KICKS IN.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE CASCADES EARLY WED MORNING SHOWED SNOW
LEVELS ON THE ORDER OF 3500 FT...AND ARE LIKELY TO LIFT ONLY SLOWLY
UNTIL THE WARM FRONT MOVES IN THIS EVENING. AT THAT POINT MODELS
SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS POP UP ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES...BRINGING AN
END TO THE ACCUMULATING SNOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH 5 PM.

INITIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP
TO SUSTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY FOR OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED MOUNTAINS. THE ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY THE
NIGHT...SO SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY RELIANT ON INSTABILITY
CREATED BY THE COOL AIR ALOFT WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH FRI.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS
GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE THIS EVENING
AS THE HEART OF A WARM FRONT SPREADS OVER THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE SOLIDLY MVFR. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND AT KHIO. HOWEVER...GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE CORE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TAF SITES FROM
FALLING INTO IFR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ONCE A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN TODAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND MORE
SOLIDLY INTO MVFR THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT SPREADS INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING 990 MB LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
VANCOUVER ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WARM FRONT SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT SPREADING OVER THE
WATERS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS EVENING...CAUSING A COASTAL
JET TO INTENSIFY WITH SOLID 35 TO 40 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITHIN
20 NM OF THE COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD END AROUND DAYBREAK...
BUT WILL KEEP THE KEEP THE CURRENT TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE
HEADLINE AS IS...IN CASE THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN A FEW HOURS.
ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE INTO THE 30 TO 35 KT
RANGE.

EXPECT SEAS TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SEAS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 12 TO 14 FT RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE MOST SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. /NEUMAN



&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230918
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST TODAY THEN LIFT N
INTO WA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND...MOVING
INLAND THU MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY PATTERN
THAT WILL LAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MODELS ALL INDICATE DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT TODAY
ON LAYERS FROM 285K THROUGH 300K...SPELLING A WET DAY TODAY. THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES UNTIL A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON
THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING LIFT RELIES MORE ON THE
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MODELS DEPICT MOVING THROUGH AS AN UPPER
TROUGH BGINS TO DIG IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
CATEGORICAL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY THROUGH THU MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A SHORT DOWN TIME ON PRECIPITATION AFTER THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND BEFORE THE DYNAMIC LIFTING KICKS IN.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE CASCADES EARLY WED MORNING SHOWED SNOW
LEVELS ON THE ORDER OF 3500 FT...AND ARE LIKELY TO LIFT ONLY SLOWLY
UNTIL THE WARM FRONT MOVES IN THIS EVENING. AT THAT POINT MODELS
SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS POP UP ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES...BRINGING AN
END TO THE ACCUMULATING SNOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH 5 PM.

INITIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP
TO SUSTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY FOR OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED MOUNTAINS. THE ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY THE
NIGHT...SO SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY RELIANT ON INSTABILITY
CREATED BY THE COOL AIR ALOFT WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH FRI.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS
GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE THIS EVENING
AS THE HEART OF A WARM FRONT SPREADS OVER THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE SOLIDLY MVFR. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND AT KHIO. HOWEVER...GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE CORE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TAF SITES FROM
FALLING INTO IFR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ONCE A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN TODAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND MORE
SOLIDLY INTO MVFR THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT SPREADS INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING 990 MB LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
VANCOUVER ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WARM FRONT SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT SPREADING OVER THE
WATERS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS EVENING...CAUSING A COASTAL
JET TO INTENSIFY WITH SOLID 35 TO 40 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITHIN
20 NM OF THE COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD END AROUND DAYBREAK...
BUT WILL KEEP THE KEEP THE CURRENT TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE
HEADLINE AS IS...IN CASE THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN A FEW HOURS.
ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE INTO THE 30 TO 35 KT
RANGE.

EXPECT SEAS TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SEAS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 12 TO 14 FT RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE MOST SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. /NEUMAN



&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KMFR 230349
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
849 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...AND TO ADJUST THE FORECAST BASED ON SOME
CHANGES APPARENT IN SOME OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK CONCERNING THE CHANGEOVER FROM SHOWERY
TO MORE STEADY PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT.
NEWEST MODELS HINT THAT THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BE MORE OF A
ONE-TWO PUNCH...RATHER THAN A SINGLE EVENT. 18Z GFS AND 00Z NAM
THIS EVENING BOTH INDICATE TWO DISTINCT WAVES MOVING INTO THE AREA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TOMORROW. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD KEEP WINDS IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST FOR MUCH LONGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND WOULD ALSO PRODUCE TWO SEPARATE
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
RELATED CHANGES CONCERNING THE EXPECTED WINDS ACROSS THE EAST SIDE
TOMORROW AS WELL. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST INDICATION IN THE MODELS
OF THIS FEATURE...HAVE NOT MADE ANY OVERREACHING CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. HAVE OPTED TO WAIT UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO IS
REINFORCED BY THE ARRIVAL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 23/00Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION. BUT, THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, RAIN,
MVFR CEILINGS, AND LOW LEVEL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION RETURN BY
05Z...MAINLY IN WESTERN OREGON WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OF 4500 TO 5500
FT MSL. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING MVFR AND LIGHT SHOWERS IN
SOUTHWEST OREGON WHILE CEILINGS BECOME VFR ELSEWHERE. -FJB


&&

.MARINE...WEST SWELLS OF 8-10 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STEEP
SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
TO THE SOUTH AND BEGUN TO INCREASE  THIS EVENING AS A STRONGER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT WINDS MAY STAY STRONG
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THURSDAY...PEAKING AGAIN AT GALE
STRENGTH THURSDAY MORNING AS A STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STEEP SEAS AS WIND WAVES AND
CONTINUED WEST SWELL BUILD INTO HIGH, CHOPPY SEAS. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND
AS WELL. -FJB/BPN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...22/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDE WAVES WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN THE PATTERN WILL STALL AS THE GLOBAL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE BLOCKY.

UNTIL THEN...EXPECT MOSTLY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEATHER OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING EAST OF THE CASCADES. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS A BROAD RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
A WARM FRONT NORTH...SO THE SHOWERS WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO
6000-7000 FEET. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BREAK TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ONSHORE...BRINGING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND
WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH IN THE END...SO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. -JRS

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE MAIN QUESTIONS REGARDING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN THE EFFECTS OF ANOTHER COUPLE OF
FRONTS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND HOW QUICKLY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BUILD NORTHWARD TO BRING A
PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TO OUR AREA.

COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY, THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE EACH
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MORE
RECENTLY, COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUNS, THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WETTER GFS REGARDING THE SECOND/STRONGER
FRONT...A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SUNDAY WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE EXTENDING ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST TO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. I HAVE MADE ONLY
VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE SUNDAY FORECAST WITH LIGHT RAIN STILL
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND LIKELY INTO JOSEPHINE AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
RIDGE AND THE TYPICAL STRENGTH OF A WARM FRONTAL/OVERRUNNING RAIN
PRODUCER, I HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION.
NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY
FOR ANY NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE END OF THE WEEKEND FORECAST
AS IT DRAWS NEARER.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE DAY 7 FORECAST THAN FOR DAYS 5 AND 6. BY
MONDAY NIGHT, A LARGE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO BE BUILDING OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH A WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. /DW


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM
     WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370-376.

$$

BPN/FJB/JRS/DW






000
FXUS66 KMFR 230349
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
849 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...AND TO ADJUST THE FORECAST BASED ON SOME
CHANGES APPARENT IN SOME OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK CONCERNING THE CHANGEOVER FROM SHOWERY
TO MORE STEADY PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT.
NEWEST MODELS HINT THAT THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BE MORE OF A
ONE-TWO PUNCH...RATHER THAN A SINGLE EVENT. 18Z GFS AND 00Z NAM
THIS EVENING BOTH INDICATE TWO DISTINCT WAVES MOVING INTO THE AREA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TOMORROW. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD KEEP WINDS IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST FOR MUCH LONGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND WOULD ALSO PRODUCE TWO SEPARATE
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
RELATED CHANGES CONCERNING THE EXPECTED WINDS ACROSS THE EAST SIDE
TOMORROW AS WELL. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST INDICATION IN THE MODELS
OF THIS FEATURE...HAVE NOT MADE ANY OVERREACHING CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. HAVE OPTED TO WAIT UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO IS
REINFORCED BY THE ARRIVAL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 23/00Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION. BUT, THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, RAIN,
MVFR CEILINGS, AND LOW LEVEL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION RETURN BY
05Z...MAINLY IN WESTERN OREGON WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OF 4500 TO 5500
FT MSL. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING MVFR AND LIGHT SHOWERS IN
SOUTHWEST OREGON WHILE CEILINGS BECOME VFR ELSEWHERE. -FJB


&&

.MARINE...WEST SWELLS OF 8-10 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STEEP
SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
TO THE SOUTH AND BEGUN TO INCREASE  THIS EVENING AS A STRONGER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT WINDS MAY STAY STRONG
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THURSDAY...PEAKING AGAIN AT GALE
STRENGTH THURSDAY MORNING AS A STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STEEP SEAS AS WIND WAVES AND
CONTINUED WEST SWELL BUILD INTO HIGH, CHOPPY SEAS. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND
AS WELL. -FJB/BPN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...22/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDE WAVES WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN THE PATTERN WILL STALL AS THE GLOBAL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE BLOCKY.

UNTIL THEN...EXPECT MOSTLY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEATHER OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING EAST OF THE CASCADES. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS A BROAD RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
A WARM FRONT NORTH...SO THE SHOWERS WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO
6000-7000 FEET. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BREAK TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ONSHORE...BRINGING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND
WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH IN THE END...SO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. -JRS

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE MAIN QUESTIONS REGARDING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN THE EFFECTS OF ANOTHER COUPLE OF
FRONTS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND HOW QUICKLY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BUILD NORTHWARD TO BRING A
PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TO OUR AREA.

COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY, THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE EACH
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MORE
RECENTLY, COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUNS, THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WETTER GFS REGARDING THE SECOND/STRONGER
FRONT...A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SUNDAY WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE EXTENDING ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST TO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. I HAVE MADE ONLY
VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE SUNDAY FORECAST WITH LIGHT RAIN STILL
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND LIKELY INTO JOSEPHINE AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
RIDGE AND THE TYPICAL STRENGTH OF A WARM FRONTAL/OVERRUNNING RAIN
PRODUCER, I HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION.
NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY
FOR ANY NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE END OF THE WEEKEND FORECAST
AS IT DRAWS NEARER.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE DAY 7 FORECAST THAN FOR DAYS 5 AND 6. BY
MONDAY NIGHT, A LARGE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO BE BUILDING OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH A WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. /DW


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM
     WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370-376.

$$

BPN/FJB/JRS/DW







000
FXUS66 KPQR 230332
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE WET WEATHER AHEAD FOR THIS WEEK.  SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST...KEEPING
A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED. THERE WILL BE SNOW
DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
LATER WED INTO THU. ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WASHINGTON COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ONSHORE
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM APPROACHING
WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW JUST ABOUT TO CROSS 140W. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE MORE RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND BREEZY COASTAL WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EVENING FORECAST AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COOL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE DAYTIME HEATING AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
AIR MASS INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY.  THERE WERE A FEW
REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL ON THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING SOME SMALL CELLS WITH 50DBZ ECHOES...SO WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND THU MORNING. MODELS
VARY SOME ON THE POSITION BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE LOWEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE RANGES FROM 989MB TO 995MB. EITHER WAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BRING FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...AND
IT COULD BE BREEZY INLAND AS WELL ON THU.  SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...POSSIBLY INTO
WED EVENING...BEFORE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU.
OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT GREAT LIKE A WINTER TIME STORM...BUT MODEL QPF
COMBINED WITH MODERATE OROGRAPHICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE
ABOUT 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR TONIGHT AND WED.
MODELS GENERALLY FOCUS OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS NORTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND WED.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS
GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS A MORE ORGANIZED
BAND/FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. STILL MAY SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND AS STEADIER RAIN INCREASES TONIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS
OR EVEN LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING ONSHORE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH...AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS A MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OR A FRONT OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH CIGS AROUND 2500-3500 FT. A
MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONTINUES WEDNESDAY. PT/27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A 1000 MB LOW OUT NEAR 48N 130W MOVES TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STALLS NEAR THE COAST. A
TRAILING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVE.
THEN A STRONGER LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 993 MB AS IT HEADS TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE GALE FORCE
WINDS BEFORE THE LOW WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER RATHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN.

SEAS WILL HOVER AROUND 10 TO 12 FT STARTING TONIGHT WITH THE
FIRST LOW...AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. SEAS MAY POSSIBLY
EVEN CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO WITH THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO
     FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230332
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE WET WEATHER AHEAD FOR THIS WEEK.  SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST...KEEPING
A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED. THERE WILL BE SNOW
DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
LATER WED INTO THU. ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WASHINGTON COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ONSHORE
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM APPROACHING
WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW JUST ABOUT TO CROSS 140W. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE MORE RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND BREEZY COASTAL WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EVENING FORECAST AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COOL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE DAYTIME HEATING AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
AIR MASS INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY.  THERE WERE A FEW
REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL ON THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING SOME SMALL CELLS WITH 50DBZ ECHOES...SO WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND THU MORNING. MODELS
VARY SOME ON THE POSITION BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE LOWEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE RANGES FROM 989MB TO 995MB. EITHER WAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BRING FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...AND
IT COULD BE BREEZY INLAND AS WELL ON THU.  SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...POSSIBLY INTO
WED EVENING...BEFORE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU.
OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT GREAT LIKE A WINTER TIME STORM...BUT MODEL QPF
COMBINED WITH MODERATE OROGRAPHICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE
ABOUT 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR TONIGHT AND WED.
MODELS GENERALLY FOCUS OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS NORTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND WED.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS
GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS A MORE ORGANIZED
BAND/FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. STILL MAY SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND AS STEADIER RAIN INCREASES TONIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS
OR EVEN LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING ONSHORE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH...AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS A MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OR A FRONT OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH CIGS AROUND 2500-3500 FT. A
MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONTINUES WEDNESDAY. PT/27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A 1000 MB LOW OUT NEAR 48N 130W MOVES TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STALLS NEAR THE COAST. A
TRAILING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVE.
THEN A STRONGER LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 993 MB AS IT HEADS TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE GALE FORCE
WINDS BEFORE THE LOW WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER RATHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN.

SEAS WILL HOVER AROUND 10 TO 12 FT STARTING TONIGHT WITH THE
FIRST LOW...AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. SEAS MAY POSSIBLY
EVEN CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO WITH THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO
     FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230332
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE WET WEATHER AHEAD FOR THIS WEEK.  SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST...KEEPING
A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED. THERE WILL BE SNOW
DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
LATER WED INTO THU. ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WASHINGTON COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ONSHORE
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM APPROACHING
WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW JUST ABOUT TO CROSS 140W. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE MORE RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND BREEZY COASTAL WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EVENING FORECAST AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COOL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE DAYTIME HEATING AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
AIR MASS INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY.  THERE WERE A FEW
REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL ON THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING SOME SMALL CELLS WITH 50DBZ ECHOES...SO WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND THU MORNING. MODELS
VARY SOME ON THE POSITION BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE LOWEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE RANGES FROM 989MB TO 995MB. EITHER WAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BRING FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...AND
IT COULD BE BREEZY INLAND AS WELL ON THU.  SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...POSSIBLY INTO
WED EVENING...BEFORE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU.
OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT GREAT LIKE A WINTER TIME STORM...BUT MODEL QPF
COMBINED WITH MODERATE OROGRAPHICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE
ABOUT 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR TONIGHT AND WED.
MODELS GENERALLY FOCUS OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS NORTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND WED.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS
GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS A MORE ORGANIZED
BAND/FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. STILL MAY SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND AS STEADIER RAIN INCREASES TONIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS
OR EVEN LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING ONSHORE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH...AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS A MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OR A FRONT OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH CIGS AROUND 2500-3500 FT. A
MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONTINUES WEDNESDAY. PT/27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A 1000 MB LOW OUT NEAR 48N 130W MOVES TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STALLS NEAR THE COAST. A
TRAILING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVE.
THEN A STRONGER LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 993 MB AS IT HEADS TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE GALE FORCE
WINDS BEFORE THE LOW WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER RATHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN.

SEAS WILL HOVER AROUND 10 TO 12 FT STARTING TONIGHT WITH THE
FIRST LOW...AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. SEAS MAY POSSIBLY
EVEN CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO WITH THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO
     FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPDT 230257
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
757 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A BREAK IN THE WEATHER
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEST OF THE
CASCADES. RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING PRECIPITATION TO BE INCREASING
WEST OF THE CASCADES. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW ON THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN BUT THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND THE CASCADES. IT
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS OVER THE
AREA. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH FREQUENT
WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 88

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT BUT THEN THEY WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY TO MOSTLY
10 TO 20 KTS AND POSSIBLY 15 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. 88

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 440 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON AND OFF AND
AS ONE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TODAY LEAVING SOME SHOWERS AND
WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL REPLACE IT TONIGHT
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE. ALSO THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA THAT INCLUDES THE
BLUES/WALLOWAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A CHALLENGE FLUCTUATING FROM
3500 FEET TO 4500 FEET AND THERE REMAINS SOME CHANCE FOR EITHER A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW OR MAINLY SNOW WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY SETTING UP A BROAD SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER FORECAST AREA. 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -25C TO -30C
WILL FAVOR STEEP LAPSE RATES LEADING TO A MARGINAL UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS LIKELY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS
CAPE OF 300 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.
I THEREFORE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF RUNS
INDICATE DYNAMIC LIFT OVER EASTERN LIFT FOR STRONG FORCING ALONG
WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. FRIDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS.
SATURDAY THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST AREA WHILE THE NEXT
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SWEEPING THE COLD FRONT INTO IDAHO/MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT, THUS KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT BRING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW LEVELS OF
4500-5500 FEET. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  39  58  44  60 /  30  30  60  60
ALW  43  57  46  60 /  30  30  60  70
PSC  43  63  49  65 /  20  30  50  60
YKM  37  59  40  60 /  20  20  50  60
HRI  41  62  46  64 /  30  30  60  60
ELN  38  58  39  60 /  20  20  60  60
RDM  31  55  37  55 /  30  30  60  50
LGD  36  53  40  55 /  30  40  70  80
GCD  33  54  36  52 /  30  40  60  70
DLS  42  61  46  60 /  30  40  70  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

THREAT INDEX
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/99/88









000
FXUS66 KPDT 230257
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
757 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A BREAK IN THE WEATHER
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEST OF THE
CASCADES. RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING PRECIPITATION TO BE INCREASING
WEST OF THE CASCADES. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW ON THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN BUT THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND THE CASCADES. IT
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS OVER THE
AREA. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH FREQUENT
WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 88

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT BUT THEN THEY WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY TO MOSTLY
10 TO 20 KTS AND POSSIBLY 15 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. 88

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 440 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON AND OFF AND
AS ONE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TODAY LEAVING SOME SHOWERS AND
WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL REPLACE IT TONIGHT
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE. ALSO THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA THAT INCLUDES THE
BLUES/WALLOWAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A CHALLENGE FLUCTUATING FROM
3500 FEET TO 4500 FEET AND THERE REMAINS SOME CHANCE FOR EITHER A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW OR MAINLY SNOW WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY SETTING UP A BROAD SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER FORECAST AREA. 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -25C TO -30C
WILL FAVOR STEEP LAPSE RATES LEADING TO A MARGINAL UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS LIKELY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS
CAPE OF 300 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.
I THEREFORE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF RUNS
INDICATE DYNAMIC LIFT OVER EASTERN LIFT FOR STRONG FORCING ALONG
WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. FRIDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS.
SATURDAY THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST AREA WHILE THE NEXT
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SWEEPING THE COLD FRONT INTO IDAHO/MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT, THUS KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT BRING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW LEVELS OF
4500-5500 FEET. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  39  58  44  60 /  30  30  60  60
ALW  43  57  46  60 /  30  30  60  70
PSC  43  63  49  65 /  20  30  50  60
YKM  37  59  40  60 /  20  20  50  60
HRI  41  62  46  64 /  30  30  60  60
ELN  38  58  39  60 /  20  20  60  60
RDM  31  55  37  55 /  30  30  60  50
LGD  36  53  40  55 /  30  40  70  80
GCD  33  54  36  52 /  30  40  60  70
DLS  42  61  46  60 /  30  40  70  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

THREAT INDEX
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/99/88









000
FXUS66 KPDT 230257
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
757 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A BREAK IN THE WEATHER
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEST OF THE
CASCADES. RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING PRECIPITATION TO BE INCREASING
WEST OF THE CASCADES. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW ON THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN BUT THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND THE CASCADES. IT
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS OVER THE
AREA. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH FREQUENT
WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 88

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT BUT THEN THEY WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY TO MOSTLY
10 TO 20 KTS AND POSSIBLY 15 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. 88

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 440 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON AND OFF AND
AS ONE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TODAY LEAVING SOME SHOWERS AND
WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL REPLACE IT TONIGHT
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE. ALSO THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA THAT INCLUDES THE
BLUES/WALLOWAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A CHALLENGE FLUCTUATING FROM
3500 FEET TO 4500 FEET AND THERE REMAINS SOME CHANCE FOR EITHER A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW OR MAINLY SNOW WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY SETTING UP A BROAD SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER FORECAST AREA. 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -25C TO -30C
WILL FAVOR STEEP LAPSE RATES LEADING TO A MARGINAL UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS LIKELY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS
CAPE OF 300 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.
I THEREFORE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF RUNS
INDICATE DYNAMIC LIFT OVER EASTERN LIFT FOR STRONG FORCING ALONG
WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. FRIDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS.
SATURDAY THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST AREA WHILE THE NEXT
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SWEEPING THE COLD FRONT INTO IDAHO/MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT, THUS KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT BRING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW LEVELS OF
4500-5500 FEET. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  39  58  44  60 /  30  30  60  60
ALW  43  57  46  60 /  30  30  60  70
PSC  43  63  49  65 /  20  30  50  60
YKM  37  59  40  60 /  20  20  50  60
HRI  41  62  46  64 /  30  30  60  60
ELN  38  58  39  60 /  20  20  60  60
RDM  31  55  37  55 /  30  30  60  50
LGD  36  53  40  55 /  30  40  70  80
GCD  33  54  36  52 /  30  40  60  70
DLS  42  61  46  60 /  30  40  70  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

THREAT INDEX
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/99/88









000
FXUS66 KPDT 230257
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
757 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A BREAK IN THE WEATHER
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEST OF THE
CASCADES. RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING PRECIPITATION TO BE INCREASING
WEST OF THE CASCADES. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW ON THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN BUT THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND THE CASCADES. IT
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS OVER THE
AREA. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH FREQUENT
WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 88

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT BUT THEN THEY WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY TO MOSTLY
10 TO 20 KTS AND POSSIBLY 15 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. 88

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 440 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON AND OFF AND
AS ONE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TODAY LEAVING SOME SHOWERS AND
WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL REPLACE IT TONIGHT
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE. ALSO THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA THAT INCLUDES THE
BLUES/WALLOWAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A CHALLENGE FLUCTUATING FROM
3500 FEET TO 4500 FEET AND THERE REMAINS SOME CHANCE FOR EITHER A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW OR MAINLY SNOW WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY SETTING UP A BROAD SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER FORECAST AREA. 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -25C TO -30C
WILL FAVOR STEEP LAPSE RATES LEADING TO A MARGINAL UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS LIKELY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS
CAPE OF 300 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.
I THEREFORE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF RUNS
INDICATE DYNAMIC LIFT OVER EASTERN LIFT FOR STRONG FORCING ALONG
WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. FRIDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS.
SATURDAY THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST AREA WHILE THE NEXT
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SWEEPING THE COLD FRONT INTO IDAHO/MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT, THUS KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT BRING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW LEVELS OF
4500-5500 FEET. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  39  58  44  60 /  30  30  60  60
ALW  43  57  46  60 /  30  30  60  70
PSC  43  63  49  65 /  20  30  50  60
YKM  37  59  40  60 /  20  20  50  60
HRI  41  62  46  64 /  30  30  60  60
ELN  38  58  39  60 /  20  20  60  60
RDM  31  55  37  55 /  30  30  60  50
LGD  36  53  40  55 /  30  40  70  80
GCD  33  54  36  52 /  30  40  60  70
DLS  42  61  46  60 /  30  40  70  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

THREAT INDEX
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/99/88









000
FXUS65 KBOI 230246
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
846 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING FROM THE NW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL ID. BEHIND THE SHOWERS SKIES
WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ACCOMPANYING
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT THOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
GONE WITH SUNSET. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST- CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN BOISE MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NW FLOW PROVIDING WEAK
FORCING. MADE UPDATE TO TONIGHT/S FORECAST MOSTLY TO LOWER POPS
ACROSS MTN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...IN THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL
IDAHO AND BAKER COUNTY OREGON SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MVFR/IFR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS.
SURFACE WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 10-20 KTS DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS AFTER 06Z. WINDS ALOFT... SOUTHWEST TO WEST UP TO 25 KTS
AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
IS NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. A SECOND COLD FRONT
BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED NORTH OF WEISER...WEST OF
ONTARIO...AND WEST OF MELBA. EXPECT A QUICK BURST OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...AND
ISOLATED CLAPS OF THUNDER AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. EXPECT A SHORT LIVED DRY PERIOD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
COMMENCES ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....BW/DD



000
FXUS65 KBOI 230246
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
846 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING FROM THE NW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL ID. BEHIND THE SHOWERS SKIES
WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ACCOMPANYING
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT THOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
GONE WITH SUNSET. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST- CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN BOISE MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NW FLOW PROVIDING WEAK
FORCING. MADE UPDATE TO TONIGHT/S FORECAST MOSTLY TO LOWER POPS
ACROSS MTN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...IN THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL
IDAHO AND BAKER COUNTY OREGON SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MVFR/IFR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS.
SURFACE WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 10-20 KTS DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS AFTER 06Z. WINDS ALOFT... SOUTHWEST TO WEST UP TO 25 KTS
AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
IS NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. A SECOND COLD FRONT
BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED NORTH OF WEISER...WEST OF
ONTARIO...AND WEST OF MELBA. EXPECT A QUICK BURST OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...AND
ISOLATED CLAPS OF THUNDER AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. EXPECT A SHORT LIVED DRY PERIOD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
COMMENCES ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....BW/DD



000
FXUS65 KBOI 230246
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
846 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING FROM THE NW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL ID. BEHIND THE SHOWERS SKIES
WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ACCOMPANYING
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT THOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
GONE WITH SUNSET. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST- CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN BOISE MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NW FLOW PROVIDING WEAK
FORCING. MADE UPDATE TO TONIGHT/S FORECAST MOSTLY TO LOWER POPS
ACROSS MTN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...IN THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL
IDAHO AND BAKER COUNTY OREGON SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MVFR/IFR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS.
SURFACE WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 10-20 KTS DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS AFTER 06Z. WINDS ALOFT... SOUTHWEST TO WEST UP TO 25 KTS
AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
IS NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. A SECOND COLD FRONT
BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED NORTH OF WEISER...WEST OF
ONTARIO...AND WEST OF MELBA. EXPECT A QUICK BURST OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...AND
ISOLATED CLAPS OF THUNDER AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. EXPECT A SHORT LIVED DRY PERIOD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
COMMENCES ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....BW/DD



000
FXUS65 KBOI 230246
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
846 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING FROM THE NW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL ID. BEHIND THE SHOWERS SKIES
WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ACCOMPANYING
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT THOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
GONE WITH SUNSET. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST- CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN BOISE MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NW FLOW PROVIDING WEAK
FORCING. MADE UPDATE TO TONIGHT/S FORECAST MOSTLY TO LOWER POPS
ACROSS MTN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...IN THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL
IDAHO AND BAKER COUNTY OREGON SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MVFR/IFR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS.
SURFACE WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 10-20 KTS DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS AFTER 06Z. WINDS ALOFT... SOUTHWEST TO WEST UP TO 25 KTS
AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
IS NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. A SECOND COLD FRONT
BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED NORTH OF WEISER...WEST OF
ONTARIO...AND WEST OF MELBA. EXPECT A QUICK BURST OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...AND
ISOLATED CLAPS OF THUNDER AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. EXPECT A SHORT LIVED DRY PERIOD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
COMMENCES ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....BW/DD



000
FXUS66 KPDT 222343 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
440 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON AND OFF AND
AS ONE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TODAY LEAVING SOME SHOWERS AND
WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL REPLACE IT TONIGHT
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE. ALSO THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA THAT INCLUDES THE
BLUES/WALLOWAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A CHALLENGE FLUCTUATING FROM
3500 FEET TO 4500 FEET AND THERE REMAINS SOME CHANCE FOR EITHER A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW OR MAINLY SNOW WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY SETTING UP A BROAD SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER FORECAST AREA. 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -25C TO -30C
WILL FAVOR STEEP LAPSE RATES LEADING TO A MARGINAL UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS LIKELY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS
CAPE OF 300 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.
I THEREFORE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF RUNS
INDICATE DYNAMIC LIFT OVER EASTERN LIFT FOR STRONG FORCING ALONG
WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. FRIDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS.
SATURDAY THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST AREA WHILE THE NEXT
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SWEEPING THE COLD FRONT INTO IDAHO/MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT, THUS KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT BRING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW LEVELS OF
4500-5500 FEET. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...KPDT RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS A NEAR
KPSC THAT WILL MOVE TO KALW IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS. AS SUCH I ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP UNTIL 02Z IN THE KPSC AND KALW TAFS FOR -SHRA. ANOTHER
LINE OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND REACH
KDLS BY 00Z, SO I ADDED A TEMPO GROUP IN THE KDLS TAF FOR -SHRA
UNTIL 01Z THIS EVENING. INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD BASES WILL BEGIN LOWERING AND THICKENING LATE THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE THUS OVERNIGHT DUE TO ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA, BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. MORE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/23RD
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT KRDM AND KBDN. WINDS CURRENTLY ARE
SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KTS AND WILL DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING TO 10
TO 15 KTS. GUSTS TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY AT KDLS AND KYKM UNTIL 03Z
THIS EVENING. KPDT WILL HAVE GUSTS TO 32 KTS UNTIL 04Z THIS
EVENING.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  39  58  44  60 /  30  30  60  60
ALW  43  57  46  60 /  30  30  60  70
PSC  43  63  49  65 /  20  30  50  60
YKM  37  59  40  60 /  20  20  50  60
HRI  41  62  46  64 /  30  30  60  60
ELN  38  58  39  60 /  20  20  60  60
RDM  31  55  37  55 /  30  30  60  50
LGD  36  53  40  55 /  30  40  70  80
GCD  33  54  36  52 /  30  40  60  70
DLS  42  61  46  60 /  30  40  70  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ026.

&&

THREAT INDEX
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/99/99







000
FXUS66 KPDT 222343 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
440 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON AND OFF AND
AS ONE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TODAY LEAVING SOME SHOWERS AND
WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL REPLACE IT TONIGHT
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE. ALSO THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA THAT INCLUDES THE
BLUES/WALLOWAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A CHALLENGE FLUCTUATING FROM
3500 FEET TO 4500 FEET AND THERE REMAINS SOME CHANCE FOR EITHER A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW OR MAINLY SNOW WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY SETTING UP A BROAD SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER FORECAST AREA. 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -25C TO -30C
WILL FAVOR STEEP LAPSE RATES LEADING TO A MARGINAL UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS LIKELY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS
CAPE OF 300 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.
I THEREFORE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF RUNS
INDICATE DYNAMIC LIFT OVER EASTERN LIFT FOR STRONG FORCING ALONG
WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. FRIDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS.
SATURDAY THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST AREA WHILE THE NEXT
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SWEEPING THE COLD FRONT INTO IDAHO/MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT, THUS KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT BRING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW LEVELS OF
4500-5500 FEET. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...KPDT RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS A NEAR
KPSC THAT WILL MOVE TO KALW IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS. AS SUCH I ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP UNTIL 02Z IN THE KPSC AND KALW TAFS FOR -SHRA. ANOTHER
LINE OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND REACH
KDLS BY 00Z, SO I ADDED A TEMPO GROUP IN THE KDLS TAF FOR -SHRA
UNTIL 01Z THIS EVENING. INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD BASES WILL BEGIN LOWERING AND THICKENING LATE THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE THUS OVERNIGHT DUE TO ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA, BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. MORE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/23RD
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT KRDM AND KBDN. WINDS CURRENTLY ARE
SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KTS AND WILL DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING TO 10
TO 15 KTS. GUSTS TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY AT KDLS AND KYKM UNTIL 03Z
THIS EVENING. KPDT WILL HAVE GUSTS TO 32 KTS UNTIL 04Z THIS
EVENING.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  39  58  44  60 /  30  30  60  60
ALW  43  57  46  60 /  30  30  60  70
PSC  43  63  49  65 /  20  30  50  60
YKM  37  59  40  60 /  20  20  50  60
HRI  41  62  46  64 /  30  30  60  60
ELN  38  58  39  60 /  20  20  60  60
RDM  31  55  37  55 /  30  30  60  50
LGD  36  53  40  55 /  30  40  70  80
GCD  33  54  36  52 /  30  40  60  70
DLS  42  61  46  60 /  30  40  70  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ026.

&&

THREAT INDEX
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/99/99






000
FXUS66 KPQR 222151
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
204 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE WET WEATHER AHEAD FOR THIS WEEK.  SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...KEEPING A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED. THERE WILL BE SNOW
DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
LATER WED INTO THU. ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COOL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE DAYTIME HEATING AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY.  THERE WERE A FEW
REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL ON THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING SOME SMALL CELLS WITH 50DBZ ECHOES...SO WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND THU MORNING. MODELS
VARY SOME ON THE POSITION BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE LOWEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE RANGES FROM 989MB TO 995MB. EITHER WAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BRING FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...AND
IT COULD BE BREEZY INLAND AS WELL ON THU.  SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...POSSIBLY INTO
WED EVENING...BEFORE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU.
OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT GREAT LIKE A WINTER TIME STORM...BUT MODEL QPF
COMBINED WITH MODERATE OROGRAPHICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE
ABOUT 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR TONIGHT AND WED.
MODELS GENERALLY FOCUS OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS NORTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND WED.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE
SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL
QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...THOUGH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OR EVEN LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE NEXT
MORE ORGANIZED BAND OR FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADIER RAIN TO THE
COAST BY 00Z AND INLAND IN THE EVENING HOURS...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT BAND. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SPREADING ONSHORE THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH...AND OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OR A FRONT OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY LINGERING UNTIL JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THAT WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS
CONTINUE. PT
&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS HAVE RISEN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A 1001 MB LOW OUT NEAR 48N 130W MOVES TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STALLS NEAR THE COAST. A TRAILING
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE WATERS
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVE. THEN A STRONGER
LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 993 MB AS IT HEADS TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE GALE FORCE WINDS BEFORE THE
LOW WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER RATHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR
POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN.

SEAS ARE FINALLY FELL TO NEAR 9 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL RISE
BACK TO AROUND 10 TO 12 FT TONIGHT WITH THE FIRST LOW...THEN
HOVER IN THAT RANGE...POSSIBLY EVEN CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO WITH
THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 222151
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
204 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE WET WEATHER AHEAD FOR THIS WEEK.  SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...KEEPING A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED. THERE WILL BE SNOW
DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
LATER WED INTO THU. ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COOL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE DAYTIME HEATING AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY.  THERE WERE A FEW
REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL ON THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING SOME SMALL CELLS WITH 50DBZ ECHOES...SO WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND THU MORNING. MODELS
VARY SOME ON THE POSITION BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE LOWEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE RANGES FROM 989MB TO 995MB. EITHER WAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BRING FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...AND
IT COULD BE BREEZY INLAND AS WELL ON THU.  SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...POSSIBLY INTO
WED EVENING...BEFORE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU.
OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT GREAT LIKE A WINTER TIME STORM...BUT MODEL QPF
COMBINED WITH MODERATE OROGRAPHICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE
ABOUT 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR TONIGHT AND WED.
MODELS GENERALLY FOCUS OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS NORTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND WED.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE
SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL
QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...THOUGH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OR EVEN LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE NEXT
MORE ORGANIZED BAND OR FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADIER RAIN TO THE
COAST BY 00Z AND INLAND IN THE EVENING HOURS...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT BAND. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SPREADING ONSHORE THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH...AND OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OR A FRONT OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY LINGERING UNTIL JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THAT WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS
CONTINUE. PT
&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS HAVE RISEN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A 1001 MB LOW OUT NEAR 48N 130W MOVES TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STALLS NEAR THE COAST. A TRAILING
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE WATERS
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVE. THEN A STRONGER
LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 993 MB AS IT HEADS TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE GALE FORCE WINDS BEFORE THE
LOW WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER RATHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR
POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN.

SEAS ARE FINALLY FELL TO NEAR 9 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL RISE
BACK TO AROUND 10 TO 12 FT TONIGHT WITH THE FIRST LOW...THEN
HOVER IN THAT RANGE...POSSIBLY EVEN CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO WITH
THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 222151
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
204 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE WET WEATHER AHEAD FOR THIS WEEK.  SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...KEEPING A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED. THERE WILL BE SNOW
DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
LATER WED INTO THU. ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COOL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE DAYTIME HEATING AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY.  THERE WERE A FEW
REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL ON THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING SOME SMALL CELLS WITH 50DBZ ECHOES...SO WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND THU MORNING. MODELS
VARY SOME ON THE POSITION BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE LOWEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE RANGES FROM 989MB TO 995MB. EITHER WAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BRING FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...AND
IT COULD BE BREEZY INLAND AS WELL ON THU.  SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...POSSIBLY INTO
WED EVENING...BEFORE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU.
OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT GREAT LIKE A WINTER TIME STORM...BUT MODEL QPF
COMBINED WITH MODERATE OROGRAPHICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE
ABOUT 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR TONIGHT AND WED.
MODELS GENERALLY FOCUS OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS NORTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND WED.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE
SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL
QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...THOUGH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OR EVEN LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE NEXT
MORE ORGANIZED BAND OR FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADIER RAIN TO THE
COAST BY 00Z AND INLAND IN THE EVENING HOURS...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT BAND. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SPREADING ONSHORE THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH...AND OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OR A FRONT OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY LINGERING UNTIL JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THAT WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS
CONTINUE. PT
&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS HAVE RISEN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A 1001 MB LOW OUT NEAR 48N 130W MOVES TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STALLS NEAR THE COAST. A TRAILING
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE WATERS
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVE. THEN A STRONGER
LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 993 MB AS IT HEADS TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE GALE FORCE WINDS BEFORE THE
LOW WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER RATHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR
POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN.

SEAS ARE FINALLY FELL TO NEAR 9 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL RISE
BACK TO AROUND 10 TO 12 FT TONIGHT WITH THE FIRST LOW...THEN
HOVER IN THAT RANGE...POSSIBLY EVEN CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO WITH
THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 222151
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
204 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE WET WEATHER AHEAD FOR THIS WEEK.  SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...KEEPING A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED. THERE WILL BE SNOW
DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
LATER WED INTO THU. ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COOL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE DAYTIME HEATING AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY.  THERE WERE A FEW
REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL ON THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING SOME SMALL CELLS WITH 50DBZ ECHOES...SO WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND THU MORNING. MODELS
VARY SOME ON THE POSITION BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE LOWEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE RANGES FROM 989MB TO 995MB. EITHER WAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BRING FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...AND
IT COULD BE BREEZY INLAND AS WELL ON THU.  SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...POSSIBLY INTO
WED EVENING...BEFORE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU.
OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT GREAT LIKE A WINTER TIME STORM...BUT MODEL QPF
COMBINED WITH MODERATE OROGRAPHICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE
ABOUT 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR TONIGHT AND WED.
MODELS GENERALLY FOCUS OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS NORTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND WED.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE
SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL
QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...THOUGH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OR EVEN LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE NEXT
MORE ORGANIZED BAND OR FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADIER RAIN TO THE
COAST BY 00Z AND INLAND IN THE EVENING HOURS...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT BAND. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SPREADING ONSHORE THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH...AND OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OR A FRONT OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY LINGERING UNTIL JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THAT WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS
CONTINUE. PT
&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS HAVE RISEN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A 1001 MB LOW OUT NEAR 48N 130W MOVES TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STALLS NEAR THE COAST. A TRAILING
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE WATERS
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVE. THEN A STRONGER
LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 993 MB AS IT HEADS TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE GALE FORCE WINDS BEFORE THE
LOW WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER RATHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR
POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN.

SEAS ARE FINALLY FELL TO NEAR 9 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL RISE
BACK TO AROUND 10 TO 12 FT TONIGHT WITH THE FIRST LOW...THEN
HOVER IN THAT RANGE...POSSIBLY EVEN CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO WITH
THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPDT 222139
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON AND OFF AND
AS ONE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TODAY LEAVING SOME SHOWERS AND
WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL REPLACE IT TONIGHT
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE. ALSO THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA THAT INCLUDES THE
BLUES/WALLOWAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A CHALLENGE FLUCTUATING FROM
3500 FEET TO 4500 FEET AND THERE REMAINS SOME CHANCE FOR EITHER A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW OR MAINLY SNOW WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY SETTING UP A BROAD SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER FORECAST AREA. 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -25C TO -30C
WILL FAVOR STEEP LAPSE RATES LEADING TO A MARGINAL UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS LIKELY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS
CAPE OF 300 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.
I THEREFORE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF RUNS
INDICATE DYNAMIC LIFT OVER EASTERN LIFT FOR STRONG FORCING ALONG
WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. FRIDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS.
SATURDAY THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST AREA WHILE THE NEXT
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SWEEPING THE COLD FRONT INTO IDAHO/MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT, THUS KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT BRING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW LEVELS OF
4500-5500 FEET. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...18 TAFS...KPDT RADAR SHOWS RAIN AREA
CONTRACTING IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND
MOVING EAST SUCH THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY END BY 19Z-20Z AT KPSC, KALW
AND KPDT. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KALW UNTIL THEN AND VSBY AT
KALW MAY BRIEFLY BE REDUCED TO IFR WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. -SN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS SO EXPECT
MVFR VSBY AND CIGS ALONG THE AVIATION ROUTE FROM KPDT TO KBKE UNTIL
AROUND 20Z.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TREND OF PARTIAL CLEARING AND
THINNING OF CLOUDS IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
SO CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT AND GO FROM BKN TO SCT THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE BASIN. THIS AFTERNOON CIGS WILL BECOME MAINLY SCT (BUT REMAIN
BKN AT KALW) ABOVE 5000 FT AGL. CIGS WILL BEGIN LOWERING LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. MORE SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT KRDM AND KBDN.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND REACH 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE TO 5 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KTS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  39  58  44  60 /  30  30  60  60
ALW  43  57  46  60 /  30  30  60  70
PSC  43  63  49  65 /  20  30  50  60
YKM  37  59  40  60 /  20  20  50  60
HRI  41  62  46  64 /  30  30  60  60
ELN  38  58  39  60 /  20  20  60  60
RDM  31  55  37  55 /  30  30  60  50
LGD  36  53  40  55 /  30  40  70  80
GCD  33  54  36  52 /  30  40  60  70
DLS  42  61  46  60 /  30  40  70  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ026.

&&

THREAT INDEX
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/99/99








000
FXUS66 KPDT 222139
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON AND OFF AND
AS ONE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TODAY LEAVING SOME SHOWERS AND
WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL REPLACE IT TONIGHT
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE. ALSO THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA THAT INCLUDES THE
BLUES/WALLOWAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A CHALLENGE FLUCTUATING FROM
3500 FEET TO 4500 FEET AND THERE REMAINS SOME CHANCE FOR EITHER A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW OR MAINLY SNOW WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY SETTING UP A BROAD SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER FORECAST AREA. 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -25C TO -30C
WILL FAVOR STEEP LAPSE RATES LEADING TO A MARGINAL UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS LIKELY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS
CAPE OF 300 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.
I THEREFORE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF RUNS
INDICATE DYNAMIC LIFT OVER EASTERN LIFT FOR STRONG FORCING ALONG
WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. FRIDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS.
SATURDAY THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST AREA WHILE THE NEXT
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SWEEPING THE COLD FRONT INTO IDAHO/MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT, THUS KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT BRING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW LEVELS OF
4500-5500 FEET. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...18 TAFS...KPDT RADAR SHOWS RAIN AREA
CONTRACTING IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND
MOVING EAST SUCH THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY END BY 19Z-20Z AT KPSC, KALW
AND KPDT. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KALW UNTIL THEN AND VSBY AT
KALW MAY BRIEFLY BE REDUCED TO IFR WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. -SN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS SO EXPECT
MVFR VSBY AND CIGS ALONG THE AVIATION ROUTE FROM KPDT TO KBKE UNTIL
AROUND 20Z.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TREND OF PARTIAL CLEARING AND
THINNING OF CLOUDS IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
SO CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT AND GO FROM BKN TO SCT THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE BASIN. THIS AFTERNOON CIGS WILL BECOME MAINLY SCT (BUT REMAIN
BKN AT KALW) ABOVE 5000 FT AGL. CIGS WILL BEGIN LOWERING LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. MORE SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT KRDM AND KBDN.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND REACH 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE TO 5 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KTS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  39  58  44  60 /  30  30  60  60
ALW  43  57  46  60 /  30  30  60  70
PSC  43  63  49  65 /  20  30  50  60
YKM  37  59  40  60 /  20  20  50  60
HRI  41  62  46  64 /  30  30  60  60
ELN  38  58  39  60 /  20  20  60  60
RDM  31  55  37  55 /  30  30  60  50
LGD  36  53  40  55 /  30  40  70  80
GCD  33  54  36  52 /  30  40  60  70
DLS  42  61  46  60 /  30  40  70  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ026.

&&

THREAT INDEX
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/99/99









000
FXUS66 KMFR 222133
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
233 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...22/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDE WAVES WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN THE PATTERN WILL STALL AS THE GLOBAL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE BLOCKY.

UNTIL THEN...EXPECT MOSTLY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEATHER OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING EAST OF THE CASCADES. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS A BROAD RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
A WARM FRONT NORTH...SO THE SHOWERS WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO
6000-7000 FEET. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BREAK TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ONSHORE...BRINGING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND
WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH IN THE END...SO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE MAIN QUESTIONS REGARDING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN THE EFFECTS OF ANOTHER COUPLE OF
FRONTS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND HOW QUICKLY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BUILD NORTHWARD TO BRING A
PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TO OUR AREA.

COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY, THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE EACH
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MORE
RECENTLY, COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUNS, THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WETTER GFS REGARDING THE SECOND/STRONGER
FRONT...A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SUNDAY WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE EXTENDING ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST TO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. I HAVE MADE ONLY
VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE SUNDAY FORECAST WITH LIGHT RAIN STILL
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND LIKELY INTO JOSEPHINE AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
RIDGE AND THE TYPICAL STRENGTH OF A WARM FRONTAL/OVERRUNNING RAIN
PRODUCER, I HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION.
NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY
FOR ANY NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE END OF THE WEEKEND FORECAST
AS IT DRAWS NEARER.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE DAY 7 FORECAST THAN FOR DAYS 5 AND 6. BY
MONDAY NIGHT, A LARGE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO BE BUILDING OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH A WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. /DE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 22/18Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION. BUT, THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT,
RAIN, MVFR CEILINGS, AND LOW LEVEL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION RETURN BY
03Z...MAINLY IN WESTERN OREGON WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OF 4500 TO
5500 FT MSL. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST
BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING MVFR AND LIGHT
SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST OREGON WHILE CEILINGS BECOME VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...WEST SWELLS OF 8-10 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STEEP
SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTH AND START TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH. WINDS DECREASE BRIEFLY LATER
WEDNESDAY BUT THEN PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY
STEEP SEAS AS WIND WAVES AND CONTINUED WEST SWELL BUILD INTO HIGH,
CHOPPY SEAS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO
THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL. /FBI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS
        AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
        PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
        FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

15/16/08








000
FXUS66 KMFR 222133
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
233 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...22/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDE WAVES WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN THE PATTERN WILL STALL AS THE GLOBAL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE BLOCKY.

UNTIL THEN...EXPECT MOSTLY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEATHER OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING EAST OF THE CASCADES. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS A BROAD RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
A WARM FRONT NORTH...SO THE SHOWERS WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO
6000-7000 FEET. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BREAK TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ONSHORE...BRINGING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND
WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH IN THE END...SO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE MAIN QUESTIONS REGARDING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN THE EFFECTS OF ANOTHER COUPLE OF
FRONTS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND HOW QUICKLY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BUILD NORTHWARD TO BRING A
PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TO OUR AREA.

COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY, THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE EACH
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MORE
RECENTLY, COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUNS, THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WETTER GFS REGARDING THE SECOND/STRONGER
FRONT...A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SUNDAY WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE EXTENDING ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST TO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. I HAVE MADE ONLY
VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE SUNDAY FORECAST WITH LIGHT RAIN STILL
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND LIKELY INTO JOSEPHINE AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
RIDGE AND THE TYPICAL STRENGTH OF A WARM FRONTAL/OVERRUNNING RAIN
PRODUCER, I HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION.
NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY
FOR ANY NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE END OF THE WEEKEND FORECAST
AS IT DRAWS NEARER.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE DAY 7 FORECAST THAN FOR DAYS 5 AND 6. BY
MONDAY NIGHT, A LARGE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO BE BUILDING OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH A WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. /DE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 22/18Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION. BUT, THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT,
RAIN, MVFR CEILINGS, AND LOW LEVEL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION RETURN BY
03Z...MAINLY IN WESTERN OREGON WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OF 4500 TO
5500 FT MSL. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST
BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING MVFR AND LIGHT
SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST OREGON WHILE CEILINGS BECOME VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...WEST SWELLS OF 8-10 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STEEP
SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTH AND START TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH. WINDS DECREASE BRIEFLY LATER
WEDNESDAY BUT THEN PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY
STEEP SEAS AS WIND WAVES AND CONTINUED WEST SWELL BUILD INTO HIGH,
CHOPPY SEAS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO
THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL. /FBI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS
        AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
        PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
        FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

15/16/08







000
FXUS65 KBOI 222011
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
211 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
IS NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. A SECOND COLD FRONT
BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED NORTH OF WEISER...WEST OF
ONTARIO...AND WEST OF MELBA. EXPECT A QUICK BURST OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...AND
ISOLATED CLAPS OF THUNDER AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. EXPECT A SHORT LIVED DRY PERIOD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
COMMENCES ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP /WITH SNOW ABOVE 5000
FEET/ SITUATED OVER S-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO
EASTERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN AREAS OF MVFR /LOCAL IFR
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN/ CONDITIONS. NARROW LINE OF MVFR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST OF KMYL TO JUST WEST OF KBOI WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THIS AFT IN KJER/KTWF
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS...AND ALSO ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WHERE WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
03Z. NW WINDS ALOFT TO 30 KNOTS UP TO 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....BW/DD
AVIATION.....BW



000
FXUS65 KBOI 222011
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
211 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
IS NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. A SECOND COLD FRONT
BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED NORTH OF WEISER...WEST OF
ONTARIO...AND WEST OF MELBA. EXPECT A QUICK BURST OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...AND
ISOLATED CLAPS OF THUNDER AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. EXPECT A SHORT LIVED DRY PERIOD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
COMMENCES ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP /WITH SNOW ABOVE 5000
FEET/ SITUATED OVER S-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO
EASTERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN AREAS OF MVFR /LOCAL IFR
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN/ CONDITIONS. NARROW LINE OF MVFR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST OF KMYL TO JUST WEST OF KBOI WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THIS AFT IN KJER/KTWF
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS...AND ALSO ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WHERE WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
03Z. NW WINDS ALOFT TO 30 KNOTS UP TO 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....BW/DD
AVIATION.....BW



000
FXUS65 KBOI 222011
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
211 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
IS NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. A SECOND COLD FRONT
BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED NORTH OF WEISER...WEST OF
ONTARIO...AND WEST OF MELBA. EXPECT A QUICK BURST OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...AND
ISOLATED CLAPS OF THUNDER AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. EXPECT A SHORT LIVED DRY PERIOD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
COMMENCES ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP /WITH SNOW ABOVE 5000
FEET/ SITUATED OVER S-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO
EASTERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN AREAS OF MVFR /LOCAL IFR
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN/ CONDITIONS. NARROW LINE OF MVFR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST OF KMYL TO JUST WEST OF KBOI WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THIS AFT IN KJER/KTWF
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS...AND ALSO ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WHERE WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
03Z. NW WINDS ALOFT TO 30 KNOTS UP TO 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....BW/DD
AVIATION.....BW



000
FXUS65 KBOI 222011
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
211 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
IS NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. A SECOND COLD FRONT
BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED NORTH OF WEISER...WEST OF
ONTARIO...AND WEST OF MELBA. EXPECT A QUICK BURST OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...AND
ISOLATED CLAPS OF THUNDER AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. EXPECT A SHORT LIVED DRY PERIOD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
COMMENCES ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP /WITH SNOW ABOVE 5000
FEET/ SITUATED OVER S-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO
EASTERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN AREAS OF MVFR /LOCAL IFR
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN/ CONDITIONS. NARROW LINE OF MVFR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST OF KMYL TO JUST WEST OF KBOI WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THIS AFT IN KJER/KTWF
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS...AND ALSO ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WHERE WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
03Z. NW WINDS ALOFT TO 30 KNOTS UP TO 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....BW/DD
AVIATION.....BW



000
FXUS66 KPDT 221800 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1100 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS DRIFT
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER
THE KITTITAS VALLEY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...18 TAFS...KPDT RADAR SHOWS RAIN AREA CONTRACTING IN THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND MOVING EAST SUCH
THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY END BY 19Z-20Z AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KALW UNTIL THEN AND VSBY AT KALW MAY BRIEFLY
BE REDUCED TO IFR WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. -SN WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS SO EXPECT MVFR VSBY AND CIGS
ALONG THE AVIATION ROUTE FROM KPDT TO KBKE UNTIL AROUND 20Z.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TREND OF PARTIAL CLEARING AND
THINNING OF CLOUDS IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
SO CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT AND GO FROM BKN TO SCT THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE BASIN. THIS AFTERNOON CIGS WILL BECOME MAINLY SCT (BUT REMAIN
BKN AT KALW) ABOVE 5000 FT AGL. CIGS WILL BEGIN LOWERING LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. MORE SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT KRDM AND KBDN.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND REACH 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE TO 5 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KTS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
NEARING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM`S
COLD FRONT IS JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS, CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND PUGET SOUND. AS SUCH WILL SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIP THROUGH MID MORNING FROM CENTRAL
WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON. MEANWHILE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
OR INCREASE ELSEWHERE INTO MID MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FORM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL MAINLY RUN BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THIS ZONE. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY FALL TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 3500 FEET THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND
CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THIS LEVELS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN BETWEEN 4500 AND 6000 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OR LESS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP VARYING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL
RUN AROUND 3000 FEET, THEN RISE TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 4500 FEET
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, THUS SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIMITED. 90

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. LINGERING SHOWERS AND A MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN. ON THURSDAY A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A GENEROUS
HELPING OF RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND UP HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS, SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
FRIDAY WILL DROP TO AROUND 4000-4500 FEET SO LOCATIONS ABOVE THAT
ELEVATION MAY SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW. ON SATURDAY MOST OF THE
ENERGY IN THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BUT WITH THE TROUGH AND MOISTURE
STILL OVER THE AREA HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING
SUNDAY BUT DISAGREE AS TO ITS STRENGTH. THE GFS HAS IT SPLIT AND
FALL APART WHILE THE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT INTACT. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES, HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS
THEN BEGIN TO SHOW RIDGING DEVELOPING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE
TO BEGUN TO DRY OUT THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PERRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  39  58  44 /  80  30  30  60
ALW  54  43  57  46 /  80  40  30  50
PSC  61  43  63  49 /  70  20  30  50
YKM  59  37  59  40 /  50  20  20  50
HRI  59  41  62  46 /  70  20  30  50
ELN  55  38  58  39 /  50  20  20  50
RDM  50  31  55  37 /  50  30  30  60
LGD  49  36  53  40 /  80  40  40  70
GCD  50  33  54  36 /  80  40  40  60
DLS  57  42  61  46 /  50  30  40  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ026.

&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/99/90/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 221800 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1100 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS DRIFT
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER
THE KITTITAS VALLEY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...18 TAFS...KPDT RADAR SHOWS RAIN AREA CONTRACTING IN THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND MOVING EAST SUCH
THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY END BY 19Z-20Z AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KALW UNTIL THEN AND VSBY AT KALW MAY BRIEFLY
BE REDUCED TO IFR WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. -SN WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS SO EXPECT MVFR VSBY AND CIGS
ALONG THE AVIATION ROUTE FROM KPDT TO KBKE UNTIL AROUND 20Z.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TREND OF PARTIAL CLEARING AND
THINNING OF CLOUDS IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
SO CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT AND GO FROM BKN TO SCT THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE BASIN. THIS AFTERNOON CIGS WILL BECOME MAINLY SCT (BUT REMAIN
BKN AT KALW) ABOVE 5000 FT AGL. CIGS WILL BEGIN LOWERING LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. MORE SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT KRDM AND KBDN.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND REACH 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE TO 5 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KTS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
NEARING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM`S
COLD FRONT IS JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS, CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND PUGET SOUND. AS SUCH WILL SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIP THROUGH MID MORNING FROM CENTRAL
WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON. MEANWHILE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
OR INCREASE ELSEWHERE INTO MID MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FORM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL MAINLY RUN BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THIS ZONE. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY FALL TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 3500 FEET THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND
CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THIS LEVELS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN BETWEEN 4500 AND 6000 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OR LESS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP VARYING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL
RUN AROUND 3000 FEET, THEN RISE TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 4500 FEET
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, THUS SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIMITED. 90

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. LINGERING SHOWERS AND A MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN. ON THURSDAY A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A GENEROUS
HELPING OF RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND UP HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS, SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
FRIDAY WILL DROP TO AROUND 4000-4500 FEET SO LOCATIONS ABOVE THAT
ELEVATION MAY SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW. ON SATURDAY MOST OF THE
ENERGY IN THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BUT WITH THE TROUGH AND MOISTURE
STILL OVER THE AREA HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING
SUNDAY BUT DISAGREE AS TO ITS STRENGTH. THE GFS HAS IT SPLIT AND
FALL APART WHILE THE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT INTACT. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES, HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS
THEN BEGIN TO SHOW RIDGING DEVELOPING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE
TO BEGUN TO DRY OUT THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PERRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  39  58  44 /  80  30  30  60
ALW  54  43  57  46 /  80  40  30  50
PSC  61  43  63  49 /  70  20  30  50
YKM  59  37  59  40 /  50  20  20  50
HRI  59  41  62  46 /  70  20  30  50
ELN  55  38  58  39 /  50  20  20  50
RDM  50  31  55  37 /  50  30  30  60
LGD  49  36  53  40 /  80  40  40  70
GCD  50  33  54  36 /  80  40  40  60
DLS  57  42  61  46 /  50  30  40  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ026.

&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/99/90/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 221800 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1100 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS DRIFT
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER
THE KITTITAS VALLEY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...18 TAFS...KPDT RADAR SHOWS RAIN AREA CONTRACTING IN THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND MOVING EAST SUCH
THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY END BY 19Z-20Z AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KALW UNTIL THEN AND VSBY AT KALW MAY BRIEFLY
BE REDUCED TO IFR WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. -SN WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS SO EXPECT MVFR VSBY AND CIGS
ALONG THE AVIATION ROUTE FROM KPDT TO KBKE UNTIL AROUND 20Z.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TREND OF PARTIAL CLEARING AND
THINNING OF CLOUDS IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
SO CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT AND GO FROM BKN TO SCT THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE BASIN. THIS AFTERNOON CIGS WILL BECOME MAINLY SCT (BUT REMAIN
BKN AT KALW) ABOVE 5000 FT AGL. CIGS WILL BEGIN LOWERING LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. MORE SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT KRDM AND KBDN.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND REACH 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE TO 5 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KTS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
NEARING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM`S
COLD FRONT IS JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS, CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND PUGET SOUND. AS SUCH WILL SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIP THROUGH MID MORNING FROM CENTRAL
WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON. MEANWHILE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
OR INCREASE ELSEWHERE INTO MID MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FORM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL MAINLY RUN BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THIS ZONE. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY FALL TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 3500 FEET THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND
CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THIS LEVELS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN BETWEEN 4500 AND 6000 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OR LESS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP VARYING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL
RUN AROUND 3000 FEET, THEN RISE TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 4500 FEET
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, THUS SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIMITED. 90

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. LINGERING SHOWERS AND A MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN. ON THURSDAY A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A GENEROUS
HELPING OF RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND UP HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS, SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
FRIDAY WILL DROP TO AROUND 4000-4500 FEET SO LOCATIONS ABOVE THAT
ELEVATION MAY SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW. ON SATURDAY MOST OF THE
ENERGY IN THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BUT WITH THE TROUGH AND MOISTURE
STILL OVER THE AREA HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING
SUNDAY BUT DISAGREE AS TO ITS STRENGTH. THE GFS HAS IT SPLIT AND
FALL APART WHILE THE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT INTACT. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES, HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS
THEN BEGIN TO SHOW RIDGING DEVELOPING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE
TO BEGUN TO DRY OUT THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PERRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  39  58  44 /  80  30  30  60
ALW  54  43  57  46 /  80  40  30  50
PSC  61  43  63  49 /  70  20  30  50
YKM  59  37  59  40 /  50  20  20  50
HRI  59  41  62  46 /  70  20  30  50
ELN  55  38  58  39 /  50  20  20  50
RDM  50  31  55  37 /  50  30  30  60
LGD  49  36  53  40 /  80  40  40  70
GCD  50  33  54  36 /  80  40  40  60
DLS  57  42  61  46 /  50  30  40  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ026.

&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/99/90/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 221800 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1100 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS DRIFT
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER
THE KITTITAS VALLEY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...18 TAFS...KPDT RADAR SHOWS RAIN AREA CONTRACTING IN THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND MOVING EAST SUCH
THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY END BY 19Z-20Z AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KALW UNTIL THEN AND VSBY AT KALW MAY BRIEFLY
BE REDUCED TO IFR WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. -SN WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS SO EXPECT MVFR VSBY AND CIGS
ALONG THE AVIATION ROUTE FROM KPDT TO KBKE UNTIL AROUND 20Z.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TREND OF PARTIAL CLEARING AND
THINNING OF CLOUDS IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
SO CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT AND GO FROM BKN TO SCT THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE BASIN. THIS AFTERNOON CIGS WILL BECOME MAINLY SCT (BUT REMAIN
BKN AT KALW) ABOVE 5000 FT AGL. CIGS WILL BEGIN LOWERING LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. MORE SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT KRDM AND KBDN.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND REACH 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE TO 5 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KTS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
NEARING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM`S
COLD FRONT IS JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS, CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND PUGET SOUND. AS SUCH WILL SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIP THROUGH MID MORNING FROM CENTRAL
WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON. MEANWHILE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
OR INCREASE ELSEWHERE INTO MID MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FORM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL MAINLY RUN BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THIS ZONE. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY FALL TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 3500 FEET THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND
CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THIS LEVELS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN BETWEEN 4500 AND 6000 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OR LESS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP VARYING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL
RUN AROUND 3000 FEET, THEN RISE TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 4500 FEET
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, THUS SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIMITED. 90

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. LINGERING SHOWERS AND A MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN. ON THURSDAY A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A GENEROUS
HELPING OF RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND UP HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS, SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
FRIDAY WILL DROP TO AROUND 4000-4500 FEET SO LOCATIONS ABOVE THAT
ELEVATION MAY SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW. ON SATURDAY MOST OF THE
ENERGY IN THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BUT WITH THE TROUGH AND MOISTURE
STILL OVER THE AREA HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING
SUNDAY BUT DISAGREE AS TO ITS STRENGTH. THE GFS HAS IT SPLIT AND
FALL APART WHILE THE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT INTACT. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES, HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS
THEN BEGIN TO SHOW RIDGING DEVELOPING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE
TO BEGUN TO DRY OUT THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PERRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  39  58  44 /  80  30  30  60
ALW  54  43  57  46 /  80  40  30  50
PSC  61  43  63  49 /  70  20  30  50
YKM  59  37  59  40 /  50  20  20  50
HRI  59  41  62  46 /  70  20  30  50
ELN  55  38  58  39 /  50  20  20  50
RDM  50  31  55  37 /  50  30  30  60
LGD  49  36  53  40 /  80  40  40  70
GCD  50  33  54  36 /  80  40  40  60
DLS  57  42  61  46 /  50  30  40  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ026.

&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/99/90/






000
FXUS66 KPQR 221624
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
916 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE
COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING TUE NIGHT INTO WED...THEN
ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COOL UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW AIR MASS TO
DESTABILIZE AND AS AS A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TUE NIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU MORNING.
SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER
TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...BEFORE
WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU. OROGRAPHICS WOULD
SUGGEST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND WED AT THE
PASSES. OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
FOCUS OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS.  THE SOUTH WA CASCADES AND POSSIBLY
THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES NEAR THE MT. HOOD AREA COULD SEE SNOW
ADVISORY AMOUNTS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND WED ABOVE 3500-4000 FT
ELEVATIONS. WILL SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF QPF VALUES AND DECIDE IF AN
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY... EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON THU...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...SO IT THERE IS PLENTY OF
REASON NOT TO COMPLETELY BUY IN TO THIS SOLUTION...BUT STARTED TO
TREND THE FCST TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER FOR NEXT MON. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH ONLY
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADIER RAIN INTO THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING WITH SUBSEQUENT MVFR REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A DECENT SOUTH TO NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE MUCH LOWER THAN MVFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE UNDER ONSHORE FLOW AND A FEW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A FRONT
SHOULD SPREAD STEADIER RAIN INTO THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING...WHICH
MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY. PT
&&

.MARINE...WEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TODAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A 1001 MB LOW OUT NEAR 48N 133W MOVES
TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STALLS NEAR THE
COAST. A TRAILING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LOW END GALE FORCE
WINDS TO THE WATERS LATER WED MORNING INTO EARLY WED EVE. THEN A
STRONGER LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 994 MB AS IT HEADS TOWARD VANCOUVER
ISLAND WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE GALE FORCE WINDS BEFORE THE
LOW WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER RATHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR
POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN.

SEAS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR 10 FT THIS MORNING...SO AM REISSUING
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUMP UP TO 10 TO 12 FT LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH THE FIRST LOW...THEN HOVER IN THAT RANGE...POSSIBLY
EVEN CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO WITH THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 221624
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
916 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE
COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING TUE NIGHT INTO WED...THEN
ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COOL UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW AIR MASS TO
DESTABILIZE AND AS AS A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TUE NIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU MORNING.
SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER
TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...BEFORE
WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU. OROGRAPHICS WOULD
SUGGEST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND WED AT THE
PASSES. OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
FOCUS OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS.  THE SOUTH WA CASCADES AND POSSIBLY
THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES NEAR THE MT. HOOD AREA COULD SEE SNOW
ADVISORY AMOUNTS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND WED ABOVE 3500-4000 FT
ELEVATIONS. WILL SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF QPF VALUES AND DECIDE IF AN
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY... EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON THU...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...SO IT THERE IS PLENTY OF
REASON NOT TO COMPLETELY BUY IN TO THIS SOLUTION...BUT STARTED TO
TREND THE FCST TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER FOR NEXT MON. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH ONLY
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADIER RAIN INTO THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING WITH SUBSEQUENT MVFR REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A DECENT SOUTH TO NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE MUCH LOWER THAN MVFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE UNDER ONSHORE FLOW AND A FEW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A FRONT
SHOULD SPREAD STEADIER RAIN INTO THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING...WHICH
MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY. PT
&&

.MARINE...WEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TODAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A 1001 MB LOW OUT NEAR 48N 133W MOVES
TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STALLS NEAR THE
COAST. A TRAILING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LOW END GALE FORCE
WINDS TO THE WATERS LATER WED MORNING INTO EARLY WED EVE. THEN A
STRONGER LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 994 MB AS IT HEADS TOWARD VANCOUVER
ISLAND WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE GALE FORCE WINDS BEFORE THE
LOW WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER RATHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR
POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN.

SEAS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR 10 FT THIS MORNING...SO AM REISSUING
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUMP UP TO 10 TO 12 FT LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH THE FIRST LOW...THEN HOVER IN THAT RANGE...POSSIBLY
EVEN CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO WITH THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS65 KBOI 221610
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1010 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...PATTERN CHANGE UNDERWAY AS THE FIRST WAVE OF
MOISTURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...CURRENTLY
SITUATED OVER BOISE. SNOW IS ACCUMULATING IN MCCALL AND HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. SECOND COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM BAKER TO BURNS AND IS MOVING EAST. FRONT SHOULD
REACH BOISE BETWEEN 21Z TO 23Z. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN EASTERN OREGON EAST THROUGH THE MAGIC
VALLEY FROM 18Z- 00Z. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE FROM ROME TO HELLS
CANYON. WINDS WERE ALSO UPDATED TO REFLECT BOTH FRONTAL WAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP /WITH SNOW ABOVE 5000
FEET/ SITUATED OVER FAR WESTERN IDAHO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN AREAS OF MVFR /LOCAL IFR IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING KMYL/ CONDITIONS. MVFR SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT IN EASTERN OREGON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED -
TSRAGS AFT 18Z GENERALLY EAST OF A KBKE-KREO LINE...THEN MOVE INTO
WESTERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE W-NW 15-25 KNOTS
AT KTWF/KJER BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE S-SE AHEAD
OF A SECOND COLD FRONT IN EASTERN OREGON...THEN SHIFT TO THE W-NW 15-
25 KNOTS AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. SW WINDS
ALOFT TO 30 KNOTS UP TO 10K FEET MSL SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS JUST ENTERING WRN HARNEY
COUNTY AT 1 AM PDT.  FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...REACHING
WRN ID BORDER AROUND 12Z AND OUR ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES 18Z.  FROPA
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO WEST OR NORTHWEST WITH BRIEF 30 TO 45 MPH
GUSTS...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY.
BY 00Z SNOW LEVEL WILL BE DOWN TO 4000 FEET MSL IN BAKER CO AND 6000
FEET MSL IN TWIN FALLS COUNTY.  SEVERAL INCHES NEW SNOW ABOVE THAT
LEVEL IN NRN ZONES TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN IDAHO ZONES NORTH OF THE
SNAKE RIVER.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED MONDAY EVENING IN
OREGON JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES...NEAR WHERE THE COLD FRONT WAS AT
THAT TIME.  WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN ERN ZONES IN IDAHO LATER TODAY...CLOSE TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE
THEN.  SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TODAY SOPPORTED BY WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...
WHICH WILL BRING THE MAGIC VALLEY AND NEARBY ZONES CLOSE BUT NOT
QUITE TO WIND ADVISORY.  WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING BUT
BREEZY WEST.NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SNAKE BASIN AGAIN
WEDNESDAY.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE 20-25F COLDER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH SIMILAR MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH.  MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S AND SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
DOWN TO THE LOWER VALLEY FLOORS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE SHORT-LIVED
DRYING PERIOD WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY BECOME WET AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO EASTERN OREGON. RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS 5000-6000FT RAISE TO 6000-7000 FT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
AS AN UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO NEVADA. THE SREF DOES INDICATE A SLIGHT
THREAT OF CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BAKER COUNTY
AREA...NAM AND GFS ALSO HAVE SOME HINTS OF IT AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING
A HUGE OUTBREAK...BUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE... MODELS ALL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND KEEPING A NEAR ZONAL FLOW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE CONTINUED GOOD AGREEMENT INTO
NEXT WEEK BY SHOWING RIDGING AMPLIFYING INTO THE AREA ALLOWING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....CR




000
FXUS65 KBOI 221610
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1010 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...PATTERN CHANGE UNDERWAY AS THE FIRST WAVE OF
MOISTURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...CURRENTLY
SITUATED OVER BOISE. SNOW IS ACCUMULATING IN MCCALL AND HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. SECOND COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM BAKER TO BURNS AND IS MOVING EAST. FRONT SHOULD
REACH BOISE BETWEEN 21Z TO 23Z. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN EASTERN OREGON EAST THROUGH THE MAGIC
VALLEY FROM 18Z- 00Z. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE FROM ROME TO HELLS
CANYON. WINDS WERE ALSO UPDATED TO REFLECT BOTH FRONTAL WAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP /WITH SNOW ABOVE 5000
FEET/ SITUATED OVER FAR WESTERN IDAHO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN AREAS OF MVFR /LOCAL IFR IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING KMYL/ CONDITIONS. MVFR SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT IN EASTERN OREGON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED -
TSRAGS AFT 18Z GENERALLY EAST OF A KBKE-KREO LINE...THEN MOVE INTO
WESTERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE W-NW 15-25 KNOTS
AT KTWF/KJER BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE S-SE AHEAD
OF A SECOND COLD FRONT IN EASTERN OREGON...THEN SHIFT TO THE W-NW 15-
25 KNOTS AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. SW WINDS
ALOFT TO 30 KNOTS UP TO 10K FEET MSL SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS JUST ENTERING WRN HARNEY
COUNTY AT 1 AM PDT.  FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...REACHING
WRN ID BORDER AROUND 12Z AND OUR ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES 18Z.  FROPA
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO WEST OR NORTHWEST WITH BRIEF 30 TO 45 MPH
GUSTS...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY.
BY 00Z SNOW LEVEL WILL BE DOWN TO 4000 FEET MSL IN BAKER CO AND 6000
FEET MSL IN TWIN FALLS COUNTY.  SEVERAL INCHES NEW SNOW ABOVE THAT
LEVEL IN NRN ZONES TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN IDAHO ZONES NORTH OF THE
SNAKE RIVER.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED MONDAY EVENING IN
OREGON JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES...NEAR WHERE THE COLD FRONT WAS AT
THAT TIME.  WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN ERN ZONES IN IDAHO LATER TODAY...CLOSE TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE
THEN.  SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TODAY SOPPORTED BY WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...
WHICH WILL BRING THE MAGIC VALLEY AND NEARBY ZONES CLOSE BUT NOT
QUITE TO WIND ADVISORY.  WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING BUT
BREEZY WEST.NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SNAKE BASIN AGAIN
WEDNESDAY.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE 20-25F COLDER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH SIMILAR MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH.  MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S AND SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
DOWN TO THE LOWER VALLEY FLOORS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE SHORT-LIVED
DRYING PERIOD WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY BECOME WET AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO EASTERN OREGON. RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS 5000-6000FT RAISE TO 6000-7000 FT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
AS AN UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO NEVADA. THE SREF DOES INDICATE A SLIGHT
THREAT OF CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BAKER COUNTY
AREA...NAM AND GFS ALSO HAVE SOME HINTS OF IT AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING
A HUGE OUTBREAK...BUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE... MODELS ALL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND KEEPING A NEAR ZONAL FLOW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE CONTINUED GOOD AGREEMENT INTO
NEXT WEEK BY SHOWING RIDGING AMPLIFYING INTO THE AREA ALLOWING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....CR



000
FXUS66 KPDT 221544 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
840 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS DRIFT
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER
THE KITTITAS VALLEY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 509 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
NEARING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM`S
COLD FRONT IS JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS, CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND PUGET SOUND. AS SUCH WILL SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIP THROUGH MID MORNING FROM CENTRAL
WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON. MEANWHILE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
OR INCREASE ELSEWHERE INTO MID MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FORM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL MAINLY RUN BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THIS ZONE. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY FALL TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 3500 FEET THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND
CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THIS LEVELS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN BETWEEN 4500 AND 6000 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OR LESS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP VARYING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL
RUN AROUND 3000 FEET, THEN RISE TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 4500 FEET
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, THUS SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIMITED. 90

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. LINGERING SHOWERS AND A MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN. ON THURSDAY A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A GENEROUS
HELPING OF RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND UP HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS, SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
FRIDAY WILL DROP TO AROUND 4000-4500 FEET SO LOCATIONS ABOVE THAT
ELEVATION MAY SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW. ON SATURDAY MOST OF THE
ENERGY IN THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BUT WITH THE TROUGH AND MOISTURE
STILL OVER THE AREA HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING
SUNDAY BUT DISAGREE AS TO ITS STRENGTH. THE GFS HAS IT SPLIT AND
FALL APART WHILE THE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT INTACT. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES, HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS
THEN BEGIN TO SHOW RIDGING DEVELOPING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE
TO BEGUN TO DRY OUT THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PERRY.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SOON BEGIN TAPERING OFF FROM CENTRAL OREGON
NORTHEASTWARD. IT WILL END AT WESTERN TAF SITES KRDM, KBDN KDLS AND
KYKM FROM 14Z-17Z AND AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT AROUND 20Z. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THEN WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
THIS AFTERNOON CEILINGS WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 5000
FEET AGL. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN LOWERING LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA BUT
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. MORE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
06Z WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT KRDM AND KBDN. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND REACH 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE TO 5 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  39  58  44 /  80  30  30  60
ALW  54  43  57  46 /  80  40  30  50
PSC  61  43  63  49 /  70  20  30  50
YKM  59  37  59  40 /  50  20  20  50
HRI  59  41  62  46 /  70  20  30  50
ELN  55  38  58  39 /  50  20  20  50
RDM  50  31  55  37 /  50  30  30  60
LGD  49  36  53  40 /  80  40  40  70
GCD  50  33  54  36 /  80  40  40  60
DLS  57  42  61  46 /  50  30  40  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ026.

&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/99/76









000
FXUS66 KPDT 221544 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
840 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS DRIFT
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER
THE KITTITAS VALLEY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 509 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
NEARING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM`S
COLD FRONT IS JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS, CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND PUGET SOUND. AS SUCH WILL SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIP THROUGH MID MORNING FROM CENTRAL
WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON. MEANWHILE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
OR INCREASE ELSEWHERE INTO MID MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FORM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL MAINLY RUN BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THIS ZONE. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY FALL TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 3500 FEET THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND
CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THIS LEVELS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN BETWEEN 4500 AND 6000 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OR LESS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP VARYING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL
RUN AROUND 3000 FEET, THEN RISE TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 4500 FEET
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, THUS SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIMITED. 90

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. LINGERING SHOWERS AND A MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN. ON THURSDAY A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A GENEROUS
HELPING OF RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND UP HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS, SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
FRIDAY WILL DROP TO AROUND 4000-4500 FEET SO LOCATIONS ABOVE THAT
ELEVATION MAY SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW. ON SATURDAY MOST OF THE
ENERGY IN THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BUT WITH THE TROUGH AND MOISTURE
STILL OVER THE AREA HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING
SUNDAY BUT DISAGREE AS TO ITS STRENGTH. THE GFS HAS IT SPLIT AND
FALL APART WHILE THE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT INTACT. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES, HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS
THEN BEGIN TO SHOW RIDGING DEVELOPING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE
TO BEGUN TO DRY OUT THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PERRY.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SOON BEGIN TAPERING OFF FROM CENTRAL OREGON
NORTHEASTWARD. IT WILL END AT WESTERN TAF SITES KRDM, KBDN KDLS AND
KYKM FROM 14Z-17Z AND AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT AROUND 20Z. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THEN WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
THIS AFTERNOON CEILINGS WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 5000
FEET AGL. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN LOWERING LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA BUT
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. MORE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
06Z WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT KRDM AND KBDN. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND REACH 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE TO 5 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  39  58  44 /  80  30  30  60
ALW  54  43  57  46 /  80  40  30  50
PSC  61  43  63  49 /  70  20  30  50
YKM  59  37  59  40 /  50  20  20  50
HRI  59  41  62  46 /  70  20  30  50
ELN  55  38  58  39 /  50  20  20  50
RDM  50  31  55  37 /  50  30  30  60
LGD  49  36  53  40 /  80  40  40  70
GCD  50  33  54  36 /  80  40  40  60
DLS  57  42  61  46 /  50  30  40  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ026.

&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/99/76









000
FXUS66 KPDT 221544 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
840 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS DRIFT
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER
THE KITTITAS VALLEY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 509 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
NEARING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM`S
COLD FRONT IS JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS, CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND PUGET SOUND. AS SUCH WILL SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIP THROUGH MID MORNING FROM CENTRAL
WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON. MEANWHILE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
OR INCREASE ELSEWHERE INTO MID MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FORM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL MAINLY RUN BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THIS ZONE. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY FALL TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 3500 FEET THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND
CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THIS LEVELS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN BETWEEN 4500 AND 6000 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OR LESS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP VARYING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL
RUN AROUND 3000 FEET, THEN RISE TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 4500 FEET
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, THUS SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIMITED. 90

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. LINGERING SHOWERS AND A MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN. ON THURSDAY A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A GENEROUS
HELPING OF RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND UP HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS, SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
FRIDAY WILL DROP TO AROUND 4000-4500 FEET SO LOCATIONS ABOVE THAT
ELEVATION MAY SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW. ON SATURDAY MOST OF THE
ENERGY IN THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BUT WITH THE TROUGH AND MOISTURE
STILL OVER THE AREA HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING
SUNDAY BUT DISAGREE AS TO ITS STRENGTH. THE GFS HAS IT SPLIT AND
FALL APART WHILE THE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT INTACT. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES, HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS
THEN BEGIN TO SHOW RIDGING DEVELOPING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE
TO BEGUN TO DRY OUT THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PERRY.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SOON BEGIN TAPERING OFF FROM CENTRAL OREGON
NORTHEASTWARD. IT WILL END AT WESTERN TAF SITES KRDM, KBDN KDLS AND
KYKM FROM 14Z-17Z AND AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT AROUND 20Z. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THEN WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
THIS AFTERNOON CEILINGS WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 5000
FEET AGL. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN LOWERING LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA BUT
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. MORE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
06Z WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT KRDM AND KBDN. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND REACH 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE TO 5 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  39  58  44 /  80  30  30  60
ALW  54  43  57  46 /  80  40  30  50
PSC  61  43  63  49 /  70  20  30  50
YKM  59  37  59  40 /  50  20  20  50
HRI  59  41  62  46 /  70  20  30  50
ELN  55  38  58  39 /  50  20  20  50
RDM  50  31  55  37 /  50  30  30  60
LGD  49  36  53  40 /  80  40  40  70
GCD  50  33  54  36 /  80  40  40  60
DLS  57  42  61  46 /  50  30  40  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ026.

&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/99/76









000
FXUS66 KPDT 221544 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
840 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS DRIFT
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER
THE KITTITAS VALLEY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 509 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
NEARING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM`S
COLD FRONT IS JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS, CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND PUGET SOUND. AS SUCH WILL SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIP THROUGH MID MORNING FROM CENTRAL
WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON. MEANWHILE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
OR INCREASE ELSEWHERE INTO MID MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FORM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL MAINLY RUN BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THIS ZONE. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY FALL TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 3500 FEET THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND
CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THIS LEVELS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN BETWEEN 4500 AND 6000 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OR LESS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP VARYING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL
RUN AROUND 3000 FEET, THEN RISE TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 4500 FEET
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, THUS SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIMITED. 90

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. LINGERING SHOWERS AND A MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN. ON THURSDAY A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A GENEROUS
HELPING OF RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND UP HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS, SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
FRIDAY WILL DROP TO AROUND 4000-4500 FEET SO LOCATIONS ABOVE THAT
ELEVATION MAY SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW. ON SATURDAY MOST OF THE
ENERGY IN THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BUT WITH THE TROUGH AND MOISTURE
STILL OVER THE AREA HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING
SUNDAY BUT DISAGREE AS TO ITS STRENGTH. THE GFS HAS IT SPLIT AND
FALL APART WHILE THE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT INTACT. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES, HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS
THEN BEGIN TO SHOW RIDGING DEVELOPING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE
TO BEGUN TO DRY OUT THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PERRY.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SOON BEGIN TAPERING OFF FROM CENTRAL OREGON
NORTHEASTWARD. IT WILL END AT WESTERN TAF SITES KRDM, KBDN KDLS AND
KYKM FROM 14Z-17Z AND AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT AROUND 20Z. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THEN WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
THIS AFTERNOON CEILINGS WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 5000
FEET AGL. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN LOWERING LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA BUT
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. MORE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
06Z WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT KRDM AND KBDN. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND REACH 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE TO 5 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  39  58  44 /  80  30  30  60
ALW  54  43  57  46 /  80  40  30  50
PSC  61  43  63  49 /  70  20  30  50
YKM  59  37  59  40 /  50  20  20  50
HRI  59  41  62  46 /  70  20  30  50
ELN  55  38  58  39 /  50  20  20  50
RDM  50  31  55  37 /  50  30  30  60
LGD  49  36  53  40 /  80  40  40  70
GCD  50  33  54  36 /  80  40  40  60
DLS  57  42  61  46 /  50  30  40  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ026.

&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/99/76









000
FXUS66 KMFR 221516
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
816 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...22/12Z NAM IN.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MEDFORD CWA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MOVED ONSHORE NEAR
BROOKINGS EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT THERE IS NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS ARE 3500-4000 FEET.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNTIL A SHORT WAVE SWEEPS TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN THEY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS A BROAD RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA...SO THE SHOWERS WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO 6000-7000
FEET. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY AND THIS WILL
PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ONSHORE. THIS WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...THEN POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
INTO FRIDAY. THE HITS WILL KEEP ON COMING AS ANOTHER FRONT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 22/12Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS MORNING WITH
LOCAL IFR ALONG THE COAST AND TERRAIN OBSCURED. CIGS LIFT TO VFR
MOST AREAS LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN RETURNS
FROM MOSTLY THE CASCADES WEST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BY TOMORROW
MORNING...BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS BACK TO THE COAST AND COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.MARINE...WEST SWELLS OF 8-10 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STEEP
SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTH AND START TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH. WINDS DECREASE BRIEFLY LATER WEDNESDAY BUT
THEN PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONG FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STEEP SEAS
AS WIND WAVES AND CONTINUED WEST SWELL BUILD INTO HIGH, CHOPPY SEAS.
ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL. -SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS
        AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
        PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
        FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

15/15/15





000
FXUS66 KMFR 221516
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
816 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...22/12Z NAM IN.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MEDFORD CWA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MOVED ONSHORE NEAR
BROOKINGS EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT THERE IS NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS ARE 3500-4000 FEET.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNTIL A SHORT WAVE SWEEPS TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN THEY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS A BROAD RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA...SO THE SHOWERS WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO 6000-7000
FEET. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY AND THIS WILL
PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ONSHORE. THIS WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...THEN POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
INTO FRIDAY. THE HITS WILL KEEP ON COMING AS ANOTHER FRONT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 22/12Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS MORNING WITH
LOCAL IFR ALONG THE COAST AND TERRAIN OBSCURED. CIGS LIFT TO VFR
MOST AREAS LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN RETURNS
FROM MOSTLY THE CASCADES WEST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BY TOMORROW
MORNING...BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS BACK TO THE COAST AND COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.MARINE...WEST SWELLS OF 8-10 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STEEP
SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTH AND START TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH. WINDS DECREASE BRIEFLY LATER WEDNESDAY BUT
THEN PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONG FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STEEP SEAS
AS WIND WAVES AND CONTINUED WEST SWELL BUILD INTO HIGH, CHOPPY SEAS.
ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL. -SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS
        AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
        PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
        FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

15/15/15





000
FXUS66 KMFR 221516
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
816 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...22/12Z NAM IN.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MEDFORD CWA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MOVED ONSHORE NEAR
BROOKINGS EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT THERE IS NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS ARE 3500-4000 FEET.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNTIL A SHORT WAVE SWEEPS TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN THEY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS A BROAD RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA...SO THE SHOWERS WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO 6000-7000
FEET. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY AND THIS WILL
PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ONSHORE. THIS WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...THEN POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
INTO FRIDAY. THE HITS WILL KEEP ON COMING AS ANOTHER FRONT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 22/12Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS MORNING WITH
LOCAL IFR ALONG THE COAST AND TERRAIN OBSCURED. CIGS LIFT TO VFR
MOST AREAS LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN RETURNS
FROM MOSTLY THE CASCADES WEST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BY TOMORROW
MORNING...BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS BACK TO THE COAST AND COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.MARINE...WEST SWELLS OF 8-10 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STEEP
SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTH AND START TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH. WINDS DECREASE BRIEFLY LATER WEDNESDAY BUT
THEN PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONG FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STEEP SEAS
AS WIND WAVES AND CONTINUED WEST SWELL BUILD INTO HIGH, CHOPPY SEAS.
ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL. -SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS
        AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
        PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
        FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

15/15/15





000
FXUS66 KMFR 221516
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
816 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...22/12Z NAM IN.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MEDFORD CWA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MOVED ONSHORE NEAR
BROOKINGS EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT THERE IS NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS ARE 3500-4000 FEET.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNTIL A SHORT WAVE SWEEPS TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN THEY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS A BROAD RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA...SO THE SHOWERS WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO 6000-7000
FEET. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY AND THIS WILL
PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ONSHORE. THIS WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...THEN POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
INTO FRIDAY. THE HITS WILL KEEP ON COMING AS ANOTHER FRONT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 22/12Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS MORNING WITH
LOCAL IFR ALONG THE COAST AND TERRAIN OBSCURED. CIGS LIFT TO VFR
MOST AREAS LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN RETURNS
FROM MOSTLY THE CASCADES WEST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BY TOMORROW
MORNING...BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS BACK TO THE COAST AND COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.MARINE...WEST SWELLS OF 8-10 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STEEP
SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTH AND START TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH. WINDS DECREASE BRIEFLY LATER WEDNESDAY BUT
THEN PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONG FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STEEP SEAS
AS WIND WAVES AND CONTINUED WEST SWELL BUILD INTO HIGH, CHOPPY SEAS.
ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL. -SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS
        AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
        PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
        FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

15/15/15





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