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000
FXUS66 KPDT 271722 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1022 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. YESTERDAY IT WAS
OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON. THIS MORNING IT IS OVER SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND BY THIS AFTERNOON IT WILL BE OVER WALLOWA COUNTY IN
NORTHEAST OREGON AND ON ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL IDAHO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE
DAY AS SOLAR HEATING HEATS THE GROUND AND THUS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
BEST INSTABILITY LEADING TO SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA NEARER THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS DESCRIBED. SOME WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR
NEAR THE CASCADES WHILE AN AREA OF FROM THE LOWERS COLUMBIA BASIN TO
CENTRAL OREGON SHOULD REMAIN SHOWER FREE TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGERING INTO THE EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO
TAPPER OFF NEAR SUNSET AND COME TO AN END FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST AFTER SUNSET NEAR
THE IDAHO BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHEASTERN OREGON WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION RATHER
UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A SHOWER, WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM, WILL BE SEEN INVOF KALW AND KPDT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MORE LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KALW
AND KPDT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES(POSSIBLY INVOF KYKM MAINLY
AFTER 27/22Z). DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE NORTH. THUS AT THIS TIME EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO STAY WEST OF KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN. CEILINGS, WHEN THEY
OCCUR, WILL MAINLY BE BETWEEN 7000 AND 10000 FT AGL. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AOB 12KTS AT MOST TAF SITES...THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE KDLS AND KRDM WHERE WINDS MAY REACH 15KTS
FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. 77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER THE TRIPLE POINT OF OREGON...WASHINGTON AND IDAHO.
THIS LOW HAS MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND IT AND INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY EASTERN MOST AREAS YESTERDAY AND LAST EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THEN INTO
IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...AND OUT OF THE CWA...TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE THIS UPPER LOW
HAS THE MOST INFLUENCE ON THE CWA. HOWEVER THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED THERE AS WELL TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND AFTER TODAY
OVER THE CWA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME WARMER AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL
BE DRIER...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BY
FRIDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REACH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAKING THIS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
THE VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
(THROUGH FRIDAY). 88

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY AND FAIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OREGON EAST TO GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES, AND INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
AND THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE,
THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NO LONGER LOOKS TO COVER THE
ENTIRE AREA MONDAY. WILL RUN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED FOOTHILLS, AND EAST TO GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES.
FOR NOW THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
LOOKING TO BE EVEN MORE LIMITED, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
STORMS OVER OUR EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  52  79  55 /  20  20  10  10
ALW  77  57  82  61 /  30  30  10  10
PSC  82  56  86  58 /  10  10  10  10
YKM  80  55  83  56 /  20  20  10  10
HRI  80  55  85  56 /  20  20   0   0
ELN  80  53  85  55 /  20  20  10  10
RDM  75  44  78  47 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  69  47  75  49 /  40  40  20  20
GCD  73  46  78  48 /  30  30  10  10
DLS  82  57  86  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/77



000
FXUS66 KPDT 271722 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1022 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. YESTERDAY IT WAS
OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON. THIS MORNING IT IS OVER SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND BY THIS AFTERNOON IT WILL BE OVER WALLOWA COUNTY IN
NORTHEAST OREGON AND ON ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL IDAHO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE
DAY AS SOLAR HEATING HEATS THE GROUND AND THUS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
BEST INSTABILITY LEADING TO SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA NEARER THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS DESCRIBED. SOME WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR
NEAR THE CASCADES WHILE AN AREA OF FROM THE LOWERS COLUMBIA BASIN TO
CENTRAL OREGON SHOULD REMAIN SHOWER FREE TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGERING INTO THE EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO
TAPPER OFF NEAR SUNSET AND COME TO AN END FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST AFTER SUNSET NEAR
THE IDAHO BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHEASTERN OREGON WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION RATHER
UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A SHOWER, WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM, WILL BE SEEN INVOF KALW AND KPDT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MORE LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KALW
AND KPDT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES(POSSIBLY INVOF KYKM MAINLY
AFTER 27/22Z). DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE NORTH. THUS AT THIS TIME EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO STAY WEST OF KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN. CEILINGS, WHEN THEY
OCCUR, WILL MAINLY BE BETWEEN 7000 AND 10000 FT AGL. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AOB 12KTS AT MOST TAF SITES...THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE KDLS AND KRDM WHERE WINDS MAY REACH 15KTS
FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. 77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER THE TRIPLE POINT OF OREGON...WASHINGTON AND IDAHO.
THIS LOW HAS MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND IT AND INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY EASTERN MOST AREAS YESTERDAY AND LAST EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THEN INTO
IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...AND OUT OF THE CWA...TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE THIS UPPER LOW
HAS THE MOST INFLUENCE ON THE CWA. HOWEVER THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED THERE AS WELL TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND AFTER TODAY
OVER THE CWA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME WARMER AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL
BE DRIER...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BY
FRIDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REACH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAKING THIS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
THE VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
(THROUGH FRIDAY). 88

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY AND FAIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OREGON EAST TO GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES, AND INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
AND THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE,
THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NO LONGER LOOKS TO COVER THE
ENTIRE AREA MONDAY. WILL RUN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED FOOTHILLS, AND EAST TO GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES.
FOR NOW THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
LOOKING TO BE EVEN MORE LIMITED, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
STORMS OVER OUR EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  52  79  55 /  20  20  10  10
ALW  77  57  82  61 /  30  30  10  10
PSC  82  56  86  58 /  10  10  10  10
YKM  80  55  83  56 /  20  20  10  10
HRI  80  55  85  56 /  20  20   0   0
ELN  80  53  85  55 /  20  20  10  10
RDM  75  44  78  47 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  69  47  75  49 /  40  40  20  20
GCD  73  46  78  48 /  30  30  10  10
DLS  82  57  86  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/77



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 271636 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
936 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015


.SYNOPSIS...PESKY UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE OR/WA/ID BORDER TODAY
WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES LATER TODAY AND THU. THIS
WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND DRIER AIR MASS. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH LATER THIS WEEKEND...BRING INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND
CLOUDS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND A THREAT OF SHOWERS...FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...CUT BACK THE FCST SKY COVER FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE WAS A MARINE STRATUS PUSH...BUT IT WAS PRETTY WEAK
WITH CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL GAPS AND UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA
INTO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME
PATCHY FOG OBSERVED DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. GIVEN THE
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER AND THE DECREASED CLOUD COVER TO START...IT
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE INTERIOR WILL HAVE FULL SUNSHINE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS SEEMS LIKE A
GOOD BET. PYLE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE PESKY PATTERN WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY PUSH ON TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORMS POP OVER
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...AND PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE FAR NORTH OREGON CASCADES. NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT THAT
WILL SEE MUCH OF ANY SHOWERS TO SOUTH OF MT HOOD AS FLOW BECOMES LESS
FAVORABLE.  BUT WILL KEEP A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THERE WITH BEST THREAT
OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES. ALL SHOWERS WILL END SOON AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...AFTER MORNING CLOUDS...SHOULD HAVE AN ABUNDANCE OF
SUNSHINE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. COAST WILL BE LAST TO LOSE
THE CLOUDS. SHOULD GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS...BUT COAST WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS FURTHER ON THU AND FRI...SO SUSPECT THAT THE
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS.  THIS LACK
OF CLOUDS INLAND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S.  EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...WILL
STILL HAVE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY OVER AREAS TO EAST OF THE CASCADES
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE CASCADES CREST. SO WILL KEEP A VERY MINOR
THREAT OF A SHOWER OVER THE HIGH CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS.THAT SAID...MY CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT WILL ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SOME SCRAWNY AFTERNOON CUMULUS.  ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
PACNW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE
A LOT LIKE FRIDAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES EARLY CLEARING TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY ON
SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER...TOO. UNDER WESTERLY FLOW
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CASCADES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHETHER THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
CLEARS OUT OVER THE CASCADES BY THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...THE SUMMERTIME STRATUS PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. COASTAL STRATUS LOOKS TO CLEAR
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 21-03Z. A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE WILL ALLOW
STRATUS TO RETURN INLAND THIS EVENING WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THU MORNING. INLAND TERMINALS LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADES THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE METRO TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
IFR/MVFR STRATUS THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE THE DECK SCATTERS OUT.
MVFR STRATUS LIKELY RETURNS INLAND THU MORNING. CONDITIONS THU
LOOK TO BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR/MVFR STRATUS LOOKS TO SCATTER OUT AROUND
18Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADES BETWEEN 20-04Z. MVFR
STRATUS LIKELY RETURNS EARLY THU MORNING. /64

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BROKEN RECORD CONTINUES WITH FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A PAIR OF DOMINANT SWELL TRAINS HAVE ARRIVED TO THE
WATERS AND WILL REMAIN IN SOME FORM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
STILL HAVE SOME FRESH SWELL FROM NORTHWEST WINDS OFF THE WESTERN
BC COAST COMBINING WITH THE SWELLS TO PRODUCE SOMEWHAT CHOPPY
SEAS. COMBINED SEAS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FT THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS BEFORE EASING TO AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
STAY FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WITH ONLY BRIEF AND LOCALIZED
GUSTS PUSHING TO 20 KTS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 271558
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
958 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE SW QUADRANT OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ENHANCING
CONVECTION. WE STILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. NO CHANGES THIS MORNING.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...MOSTLY EAST OF CENTRAL HARNEY COUNTY...DECREASING
OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS GREATER
THAN/EQUAL TO 30 KTS...HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. SURFACE
WINDS...12 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...NW 10-20
KTS...DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS BY 28/18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WAS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER SW IDAHO. THE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SW IDAHO THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE
CENTER OF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON /ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING/ WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED IN SW IDAHO. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN IDAHO TONIGHT AND WESTERN WYOMING ON
THURSDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO MOST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. HIGH
TEMPERATURES /NEAR NORMAL/ TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING WARMER AIR ALOFT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE LOWER 90S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND OFF THE OREGON COAST WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS COULD BE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 271558
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
958 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE SW QUADRANT OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ENHANCING
CONVECTION. WE STILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. NO CHANGES THIS MORNING.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...MOSTLY EAST OF CENTRAL HARNEY COUNTY...DECREASING
OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS GREATER
THAN/EQUAL TO 30 KTS...HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. SURFACE
WINDS...12 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...NW 10-20
KTS...DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS BY 28/18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WAS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER SW IDAHO. THE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SW IDAHO THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE
CENTER OF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON /ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING/ WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED IN SW IDAHO. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN IDAHO TONIGHT AND WESTERN WYOMING ON
THURSDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO MOST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. HIGH
TEMPERATURES /NEAR NORMAL/ TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING WARMER AIR ALOFT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE LOWER 90S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND OFF THE OREGON COAST WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS COULD BE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMFR 271541
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
841 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...ONLY UPDATE MADE THIS MORNING WAS ADD A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER TO PARTS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED
IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND AREAS WEST OF THE COAST RANGE. THESE
LOW CLOUDS NEVER QUITE MADE IT TO ROSEBURG BUT THERE IS A LITTLE
PATCH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE UMPQUA BASIN. EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WHERE THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN
BACK OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE CASCADES
WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES TOMORROW WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY COULD FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. FOR MORE DETAILS
ON THIS WARMING TREND AND THE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -MND

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST AND ARE SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN UMPQUA BASIN THIS MORNING. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT MVFR/IFR IS LIKELY TO REFORM TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE.
-BPN/BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUESDAY 27 MAY 2015...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INLAND TODAY...CAUSING WINDS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130 WEST AND 140 WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS RELATIVELY CALM
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. -BPN/BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FROM MORE WARMING AS
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA
OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADES DOWN TO AROUND CRATER LAKE.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY FAIR TO MODERATE ONLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THERE MAY INSTEAD BE TOWERING CUMULUS
OVER THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS SE SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO
SOUTHERN HALF OF MODOC COUNTY WILL SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BOTH THE NAM12 AND GFS INDICATE
SLIGHT NEGATIVE VALUES OF THE LIFTED INDEX THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR 90
AND LOWER 90S NOW LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN OREGON
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER MANY OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY
AREAS OF INSTABILITY EXPANDS TO COVER SW OREGON. WE WILL HAVE TO
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS DEVELOPMENT AS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY COULD BE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAYS.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A COOLING TREND WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
$$

MND/FJB/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 271541
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
841 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...ONLY UPDATE MADE THIS MORNING WAS ADD A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER TO PARTS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED
IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND AREAS WEST OF THE COAST RANGE. THESE
LOW CLOUDS NEVER QUITE MADE IT TO ROSEBURG BUT THERE IS A LITTLE
PATCH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE UMPQUA BASIN. EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WHERE THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN
BACK OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE CASCADES
WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES TOMORROW WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY COULD FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. FOR MORE DETAILS
ON THIS WARMING TREND AND THE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -MND

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST AND ARE SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN UMPQUA BASIN THIS MORNING. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT MVFR/IFR IS LIKELY TO REFORM TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE.
-BPN/BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUESDAY 27 MAY 2015...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INLAND TODAY...CAUSING WINDS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130 WEST AND 140 WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS RELATIVELY CALM
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. -BPN/BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FROM MORE WARMING AS
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA
OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADES DOWN TO AROUND CRATER LAKE.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY FAIR TO MODERATE ONLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THERE MAY INSTEAD BE TOWERING CUMULUS
OVER THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS SE SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO
SOUTHERN HALF OF MODOC COUNTY WILL SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BOTH THE NAM12 AND GFS INDICATE
SLIGHT NEGATIVE VALUES OF THE LIFTED INDEX THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR 90
AND LOWER 90S NOW LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN OREGON
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER MANY OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY
AREAS OF INSTABILITY EXPANDS TO COVER SW OREGON. WE WILL HAVE TO
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS DEVELOPMENT AS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY COULD BE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAYS.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A COOLING TREND WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
$$

MND/FJB/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 271541
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
841 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...ONLY UPDATE MADE THIS MORNING WAS ADD A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER TO PARTS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED
IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND AREAS WEST OF THE COAST RANGE. THESE
LOW CLOUDS NEVER QUITE MADE IT TO ROSEBURG BUT THERE IS A LITTLE
PATCH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE UMPQUA BASIN. EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WHERE THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN
BACK OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE CASCADES
WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES TOMORROW WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY COULD FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. FOR MORE DETAILS
ON THIS WARMING TREND AND THE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -MND

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST AND ARE SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN UMPQUA BASIN THIS MORNING. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT MVFR/IFR IS LIKELY TO REFORM TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE.
-BPN/BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUESDAY 27 MAY 2015...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INLAND TODAY...CAUSING WINDS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130 WEST AND 140 WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS RELATIVELY CALM
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. -BPN/BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FROM MORE WARMING AS
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA
OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADES DOWN TO AROUND CRATER LAKE.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY FAIR TO MODERATE ONLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THERE MAY INSTEAD BE TOWERING CUMULUS
OVER THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS SE SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO
SOUTHERN HALF OF MODOC COUNTY WILL SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BOTH THE NAM12 AND GFS INDICATE
SLIGHT NEGATIVE VALUES OF THE LIFTED INDEX THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR 90
AND LOWER 90S NOW LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN OREGON
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER MANY OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY
AREAS OF INSTABILITY EXPANDS TO COVER SW OREGON. WE WILL HAVE TO
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS DEVELOPMENT AS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY COULD BE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAYS.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A COOLING TREND WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
$$

MND/FJB/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 271541
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
841 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...ONLY UPDATE MADE THIS MORNING WAS ADD A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER TO PARTS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED
IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND AREAS WEST OF THE COAST RANGE. THESE
LOW CLOUDS NEVER QUITE MADE IT TO ROSEBURG BUT THERE IS A LITTLE
PATCH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE UMPQUA BASIN. EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WHERE THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN
BACK OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE CASCADES
WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES TOMORROW WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY COULD FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. FOR MORE DETAILS
ON THIS WARMING TREND AND THE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -MND

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST AND ARE SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN UMPQUA BASIN THIS MORNING. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT MVFR/IFR IS LIKELY TO REFORM TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE.
-BPN/BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUESDAY 27 MAY 2015...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INLAND TODAY...CAUSING WINDS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130 WEST AND 140 WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS RELATIVELY CALM
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. -BPN/BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FROM MORE WARMING AS
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA
OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADES DOWN TO AROUND CRATER LAKE.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY FAIR TO MODERATE ONLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THERE MAY INSTEAD BE TOWERING CUMULUS
OVER THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS SE SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO
SOUTHERN HALF OF MODOC COUNTY WILL SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BOTH THE NAM12 AND GFS INDICATE
SLIGHT NEGATIVE VALUES OF THE LIFTED INDEX THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR 90
AND LOWER 90S NOW LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN OREGON
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER MANY OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY
AREAS OF INSTABILITY EXPANDS TO COVER SW OREGON. WE WILL HAVE TO
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS DEVELOPMENT AS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY COULD BE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAYS.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A COOLING TREND WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
$$

MND/FJB/BPN




000
FXUS66 KPDT 271447
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
746 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. YESTERDAY IT WAS
OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON. THIS MORNING IT IS OVER SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND BY THIS AFTERNOON IT WILL BE OVER WALLOWA COUNTY IN
NORTHEAST OREGON AND ON ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL IDAHO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE
DAY AS SOLAR HEATING HEATS THE GROUND AND THUS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
BEST INSTABILITY LEADING TO SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA NEARER THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS DESCRIBED. SOME WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR
NEAR THE CASCADES WHILE AN AREA OF FROM THE LOWERS COLUMBIA BASIN TO
CENTRAL OREGON SHOULD REMAIN SHOWER FREE TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGERING INTO THE EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO
TAPPER OFF NEAR SUNSET AND COME TO AN END FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST AFTER SUNSET NEAR
THE IDAHO BORDER.




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER THE TRIPLE POINT OF OREGON...WASHINGTON AND IDAHO.
THIS LOW HAS MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND IT AND INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY EASTERN MOST AREAS YESTERDAY AND LAST EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THEN INTO
IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...AND OUT OF THE CWA...TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE THIS UPPER LOW
HAS THE MOST INFLUENCE ON THE CWA. HOWEVER THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED THERE AS WELL TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND AFTER TODAY
OVER THE CWA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME WARMER AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL
BE DRIER...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BY
FRIDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REACH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAKING THIS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
THE VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
(THROUGH FRIDAY). 88

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY AND FAIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OREGON EAST TO GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES, AND INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
AND THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE,
THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NO LONGER LOOKS TO COVER THE
ENTIRE AREA MONDAY. WILL RUN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED FOOTHILLS, AND EAST TO GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES.
FOR NOW THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
LOOKING TO BE EVEN MORE LIMITED, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
STORMS OVER OUR EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR KPSC WILL DRIFT TOWARDS KALW AND
POSSIBLY KPDT, EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAIR AND DRY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE
AIR MASS OVER THE REGION UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A
SHOWER, WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM, WILL BE SEEN AT
KALW AND KPDT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MORE LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF KALW AND KPDT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AS WELL. DIRECTION
OF MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE
NORTH. THUS AT THIS TIME EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO STAY WEST OF
KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN. CEILINGS, WHEN THEY OCCUR, WILL MAINLY BE
BETWEEN 7000 AND 10000 FT AGL. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  52  79  55 /  20  20  10  10
ALW  77  57  82  61 /  30  30  10  10
PSC  82  56  86  58 /  10  10  10  10
YKM  80  55  83  56 /  20  20  10  10
HRI  80  55  85  56 /  20  20   0   0
ELN  80  53  85  55 /  20  20  10  10
RDM  75  44  78  47 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  69  47  75  49 /  40  40  20  20
GCD  73  46  78  48 /  30  30  10  10
DLS  82  57  86  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91




000
FXUS66 KPDT 271447
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
746 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. YESTERDAY IT WAS
OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON. THIS MORNING IT IS OVER SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND BY THIS AFTERNOON IT WILL BE OVER WALLOWA COUNTY IN
NORTHEAST OREGON AND ON ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL IDAHO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE
DAY AS SOLAR HEATING HEATS THE GROUND AND THUS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
BEST INSTABILITY LEADING TO SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA NEARER THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS DESCRIBED. SOME WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR
NEAR THE CASCADES WHILE AN AREA OF FROM THE LOWERS COLUMBIA BASIN TO
CENTRAL OREGON SHOULD REMAIN SHOWER FREE TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGERING INTO THE EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO
TAPPER OFF NEAR SUNSET AND COME TO AN END FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST AFTER SUNSET NEAR
THE IDAHO BORDER.




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER THE TRIPLE POINT OF OREGON...WASHINGTON AND IDAHO.
THIS LOW HAS MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND IT AND INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY EASTERN MOST AREAS YESTERDAY AND LAST EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THEN INTO
IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...AND OUT OF THE CWA...TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE THIS UPPER LOW
HAS THE MOST INFLUENCE ON THE CWA. HOWEVER THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED THERE AS WELL TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND AFTER TODAY
OVER THE CWA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME WARMER AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL
BE DRIER...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BY
FRIDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REACH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAKING THIS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
THE VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
(THROUGH FRIDAY). 88

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY AND FAIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OREGON EAST TO GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES, AND INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
AND THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE,
THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NO LONGER LOOKS TO COVER THE
ENTIRE AREA MONDAY. WILL RUN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED FOOTHILLS, AND EAST TO GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES.
FOR NOW THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
LOOKING TO BE EVEN MORE LIMITED, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
STORMS OVER OUR EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR KPSC WILL DRIFT TOWARDS KALW AND
POSSIBLY KPDT, EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAIR AND DRY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE
AIR MASS OVER THE REGION UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A
SHOWER, WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM, WILL BE SEEN AT
KALW AND KPDT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MORE LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF KALW AND KPDT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AS WELL. DIRECTION
OF MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE
NORTH. THUS AT THIS TIME EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO STAY WEST OF
KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN. CEILINGS, WHEN THEY OCCUR, WILL MAINLY BE
BETWEEN 7000 AND 10000 FT AGL. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  52  79  55 /  20  20  10  10
ALW  77  57  82  61 /  30  30  10  10
PSC  82  56  86  58 /  10  10  10  10
YKM  80  55  83  56 /  20  20  10  10
HRI  80  55  85  56 /  20  20   0   0
ELN  80  53  85  55 /  20  20  10  10
RDM  75  44  78  47 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  69  47  75  49 /  40  40  20  20
GCD  73  46  78  48 /  30  30  10  10
DLS  82  57  86  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91



000
FXUS66 KPDT 271447
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
746 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. YESTERDAY IT WAS
OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON. THIS MORNING IT IS OVER SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND BY THIS AFTERNOON IT WILL BE OVER WALLOWA COUNTY IN
NORTHEAST OREGON AND ON ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL IDAHO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE
DAY AS SOLAR HEATING HEATS THE GROUND AND THUS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
BEST INSTABILITY LEADING TO SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA NEARER THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS DESCRIBED. SOME WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR
NEAR THE CASCADES WHILE AN AREA OF FROM THE LOWERS COLUMBIA BASIN TO
CENTRAL OREGON SHOULD REMAIN SHOWER FREE TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGERING INTO THE EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO
TAPPER OFF NEAR SUNSET AND COME TO AN END FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST AFTER SUNSET NEAR
THE IDAHO BORDER.




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER THE TRIPLE POINT OF OREGON...WASHINGTON AND IDAHO.
THIS LOW HAS MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND IT AND INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY EASTERN MOST AREAS YESTERDAY AND LAST EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THEN INTO
IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...AND OUT OF THE CWA...TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE THIS UPPER LOW
HAS THE MOST INFLUENCE ON THE CWA. HOWEVER THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED THERE AS WELL TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND AFTER TODAY
OVER THE CWA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME WARMER AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL
BE DRIER...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BY
FRIDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REACH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAKING THIS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
THE VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
(THROUGH FRIDAY). 88

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY AND FAIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OREGON EAST TO GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES, AND INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
AND THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE,
THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NO LONGER LOOKS TO COVER THE
ENTIRE AREA MONDAY. WILL RUN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED FOOTHILLS, AND EAST TO GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES.
FOR NOW THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
LOOKING TO BE EVEN MORE LIMITED, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
STORMS OVER OUR EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR KPSC WILL DRIFT TOWARDS KALW AND
POSSIBLY KPDT, EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAIR AND DRY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE
AIR MASS OVER THE REGION UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A
SHOWER, WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM, WILL BE SEEN AT
KALW AND KPDT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MORE LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF KALW AND KPDT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AS WELL. DIRECTION
OF MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE
NORTH. THUS AT THIS TIME EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO STAY WEST OF
KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN. CEILINGS, WHEN THEY OCCUR, WILL MAINLY BE
BETWEEN 7000 AND 10000 FT AGL. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  52  79  55 /  20  20  10  10
ALW  77  57  82  61 /  30  30  10  10
PSC  82  56  86  58 /  10  10  10  10
YKM  80  55  83  56 /  20  20  10  10
HRI  80  55  85  56 /  20  20   0   0
ELN  80  53  85  55 /  20  20  10  10
RDM  75  44  78  47 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  69  47  75  49 /  40  40  20  20
GCD  73  46  78  48 /  30  30  10  10
DLS  82  57  86  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91




000
FXUS66 KPDT 271158 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
458 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER THE TRIPLE POINT OF OREGON...WASHINGTON AND IDAHO.
THIS LOW HAS MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND IT AND INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY EASTERN MOST AREAS YESTERDAY AND LAST EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THEN INTO
IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...AND OUT OF THE CWA...TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE THIS UPPER LOW
HAS THE MOST INFLUENCE ON THE CWA. HOWEVER THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED THERE AS WELL TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND AFTER TODAY
OVER THE CWA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME WARMER AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL
BE DRIER...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BY
FRIDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REACH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAKING THIS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
THE VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
(THROUGH FRIDAY). 88

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY AND FAIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OREGON EAST TO GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES, AND INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
AND THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE,
THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NO LONGER LOOKS TO COVER THE
ENTIRE AREA MONDAY. WILL RUN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED FOOTHILLS, AND EAST TO GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES.
FOR NOW THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
LOOKING TO BE EVEN MORE LIMITED, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
STORMS OVER OUR EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR KPSC WILL DRIFT TOWARDS KALW AND
POSSIBLY KPDT, EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAIR AND DRY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE
AIR MASS OVER THE REGION UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A
SHOWER, WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM, WILL BE SEEN AT
KALW AND KPDT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MORE LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF KALW AND KPDT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AS WELL. DIRECTION
OF MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE
NORTH. THUS AT THIS TIME EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO STAY WEST OF
KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN. CEILINGS, WHEN THEY OCCUR, WILL MAINLY BE
BETWEEN 7000 AND 10000 FT AGL. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  75  52  79  55 /  20  20  10  10
ALW  76  57  82  61 /  20  20  10  10
PSC  82  55  86  58 /  20  10  10  10
YKM  81  55  83  56 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  80  54  85  56 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  81  53  85  55 /  20  20  10  10
RDM  75  45  78  47 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  70  47  75  49 /  40  30  20  20
GCD  73  46  78  48 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  83  57  86  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/90/90




000
FXUS66 KPDT 271158 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
458 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER THE TRIPLE POINT OF OREGON...WASHINGTON AND IDAHO.
THIS LOW HAS MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND IT AND INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY EASTERN MOST AREAS YESTERDAY AND LAST EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THEN INTO
IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...AND OUT OF THE CWA...TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE THIS UPPER LOW
HAS THE MOST INFLUENCE ON THE CWA. HOWEVER THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED THERE AS WELL TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND AFTER TODAY
OVER THE CWA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME WARMER AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL
BE DRIER...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BY
FRIDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REACH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAKING THIS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
THE VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
(THROUGH FRIDAY). 88

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY AND FAIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OREGON EAST TO GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES, AND INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
AND THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE,
THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NO LONGER LOOKS TO COVER THE
ENTIRE AREA MONDAY. WILL RUN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED FOOTHILLS, AND EAST TO GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES.
FOR NOW THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
LOOKING TO BE EVEN MORE LIMITED, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
STORMS OVER OUR EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR KPSC WILL DRIFT TOWARDS KALW AND
POSSIBLY KPDT, EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAIR AND DRY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE
AIR MASS OVER THE REGION UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A
SHOWER, WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM, WILL BE SEEN AT
KALW AND KPDT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MORE LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF KALW AND KPDT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AS WELL. DIRECTION
OF MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE
NORTH. THUS AT THIS TIME EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO STAY WEST OF
KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN. CEILINGS, WHEN THEY OCCUR, WILL MAINLY BE
BETWEEN 7000 AND 10000 FT AGL. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  75  52  79  55 /  20  20  10  10
ALW  76  57  82  61 /  20  20  10  10
PSC  82  55  86  58 /  20  10  10  10
YKM  81  55  83  56 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  80  54  85  56 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  81  53  85  55 /  20  20  10  10
RDM  75  45  78  47 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  70  47  75  49 /  40  30  20  20
GCD  73  46  78  48 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  83  57  86  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/90/90



000
FXUS66 KPDT 271158 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
458 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER THE TRIPLE POINT OF OREGON...WASHINGTON AND IDAHO.
THIS LOW HAS MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND IT AND INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY EASTERN MOST AREAS YESTERDAY AND LAST EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THEN INTO
IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...AND OUT OF THE CWA...TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE THIS UPPER LOW
HAS THE MOST INFLUENCE ON THE CWA. HOWEVER THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED THERE AS WELL TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND AFTER TODAY
OVER THE CWA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME WARMER AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL
BE DRIER...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BY
FRIDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REACH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAKING THIS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
THE VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
(THROUGH FRIDAY). 88

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY AND FAIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OREGON EAST TO GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES, AND INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
AND THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE,
THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NO LONGER LOOKS TO COVER THE
ENTIRE AREA MONDAY. WILL RUN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED FOOTHILLS, AND EAST TO GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES.
FOR NOW THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
LOOKING TO BE EVEN MORE LIMITED, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
STORMS OVER OUR EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR KPSC WILL DRIFT TOWARDS KALW AND
POSSIBLY KPDT, EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAIR AND DRY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE
AIR MASS OVER THE REGION UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A
SHOWER, WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM, WILL BE SEEN AT
KALW AND KPDT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MORE LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF KALW AND KPDT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AS WELL. DIRECTION
OF MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE
NORTH. THUS AT THIS TIME EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO STAY WEST OF
KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN. CEILINGS, WHEN THEY OCCUR, WILL MAINLY BE
BETWEEN 7000 AND 10000 FT AGL. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  75  52  79  55 /  20  20  10  10
ALW  76  57  82  61 /  20  20  10  10
PSC  82  55  86  58 /  20  10  10  10
YKM  81  55  83  56 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  80  54  85  56 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  81  53  85  55 /  20  20  10  10
RDM  75  45  78  47 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  70  47  75  49 /  40  30  20  20
GCD  73  46  78  48 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  83  57  86  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/90/90




000
FXUS66 KPQR 271153 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
453 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION FOR LOWER CLOUD DECKS THIS MORNING

.SYNOPSIS...PESKY UPPER LOW OVER NRN ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY PUSH
FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR MASS...WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH LATER THIS
WEEKEND...BRING INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AND A THREAT OF SHOWERS...FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE PESKY PATTERN WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY PUSH ON TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORMS POP OVER
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...AND PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE FAR NORTH OREGON CASCADES. NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT THAT
WILL SEE MUCH OF ANY SHOWERS TO SOUTH OF MT HOOD AS FLOW BECOMES LESS
FAVORABLE.  BUT WILL KEEP A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THERE WITH BEST THREAT
OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES. ALL SHOWERS WILL END SOON AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...AFTER MORNING CLOUDS...SHOULD HAVE AN ABUNDANCE OF
SUNSHINE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. COAST WILL BE LAST TO LOSE
THE CLOUDS. SHOULD GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS...BUT COAST WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS FURTHER ON THU AND FRI...SO SUSPECT THAT THE
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS.  THIS LACK
OF CLOUDS INLAND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S.  EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...WILL
STILL HAVE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY OVER AREAS TO EAST OF THE CASCADES
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE CASCADES CREST. SO WILL KEEP A VERY MINOR
THREAT OF A SHOWER OVER THE HIGH CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS.THAT SAID...MY CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT WILL ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SOME SCRAWNY AFTERNOON CUMULUS.  ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
PACNW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE
A LOT LIKE FRIDAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES EARLY CLEARING TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY ON
SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER...TOO. UNDER WESTERLY FLOW
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CASCADES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHETHER THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
CLEARS OUT OVER THE CASCADES BY THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...HEADING INTO SOMEWHAT OF A SUMMERTIME STRATUS PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH END IFR/LOW END MVFR STRATUS WILL
LINGER NEAR THE COASTLINE WITH PERHAPS SEVERAL HOURS OF CLEARING
ROUGHLY 21-03Z BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE PULLS IT BACK OVER LAND FOR THE
LATE EVENING THROUGH THE MORNING. INLAND TERMINALS WILL ALSO LIKELY
SEE A HIGH END IFR/LOW END MVFR STRATUS DECK 008-015 AGL GENERALLY
DURING A 12Z TO 18Z PERIOD WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY SCT CLOUDS.
MODERATE CUMULUS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE 18-04Z TODAY MAINLY NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR CIGS HAVE MOVED OVER THE FIELD AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH AROUND 17Z OR SO AS THEY SHOULD BE FAIRLY THIN.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHALLOW CUMULUS MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN APPROACHES AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST AND EAST SLOPES. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. ANOTHER
SET OF LOW STRATUS PROBABLY WILL RETURN LATE OVERNIGHT. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...BROKEN RECORD CONTINUES WITH FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PAIR OF DOMINANT SWELL TRAINS HAVE ARRIVED
TO THE WATERS AND WILL REMAIN IN SOME FORM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. STILL HAVE SOME FRESH SWELL FROM NORTHWEST WINDS OFF THE
WESTERN BC COAST COMBINING WITH THE SWELLS TO PRODUCE SOMEWHAT
CHOPPY SEAS. COMBINED SEAS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FT THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE EASING TO AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL STAY FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WITH ONLY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED GUSTS PUSHING TO 20 KTS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 271153 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
453 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION FOR LOWER CLOUD DECKS THIS MORNING

.SYNOPSIS...PESKY UPPER LOW OVER NRN ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY PUSH
FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR MASS...WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH LATER THIS
WEEKEND...BRING INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AND A THREAT OF SHOWERS...FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE PESKY PATTERN WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY PUSH ON TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORMS POP OVER
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...AND PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE FAR NORTH OREGON CASCADES. NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT THAT
WILL SEE MUCH OF ANY SHOWERS TO SOUTH OF MT HOOD AS FLOW BECOMES LESS
FAVORABLE.  BUT WILL KEEP A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THERE WITH BEST THREAT
OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES. ALL SHOWERS WILL END SOON AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...AFTER MORNING CLOUDS...SHOULD HAVE AN ABUNDANCE OF
SUNSHINE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. COAST WILL BE LAST TO LOSE
THE CLOUDS. SHOULD GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS...BUT COAST WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS FURTHER ON THU AND FRI...SO SUSPECT THAT THE
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS.  THIS LACK
OF CLOUDS INLAND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S.  EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...WILL
STILL HAVE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY OVER AREAS TO EAST OF THE CASCADES
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE CASCADES CREST. SO WILL KEEP A VERY MINOR
THREAT OF A SHOWER OVER THE HIGH CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS.THAT SAID...MY CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT WILL ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SOME SCRAWNY AFTERNOON CUMULUS.  ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
PACNW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE
A LOT LIKE FRIDAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES EARLY CLEARING TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY ON
SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER...TOO. UNDER WESTERLY FLOW
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CASCADES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHETHER THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
CLEARS OUT OVER THE CASCADES BY THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...HEADING INTO SOMEWHAT OF A SUMMERTIME STRATUS PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH END IFR/LOW END MVFR STRATUS WILL
LINGER NEAR THE COASTLINE WITH PERHAPS SEVERAL HOURS OF CLEARING
ROUGHLY 21-03Z BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE PULLS IT BACK OVER LAND FOR THE
LATE EVENING THROUGH THE MORNING. INLAND TERMINALS WILL ALSO LIKELY
SEE A HIGH END IFR/LOW END MVFR STRATUS DECK 008-015 AGL GENERALLY
DURING A 12Z TO 18Z PERIOD WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY SCT CLOUDS.
MODERATE CUMULUS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE 18-04Z TODAY MAINLY NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR CIGS HAVE MOVED OVER THE FIELD AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH AROUND 17Z OR SO AS THEY SHOULD BE FAIRLY THIN.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHALLOW CUMULUS MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN APPROACHES AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST AND EAST SLOPES. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. ANOTHER
SET OF LOW STRATUS PROBABLY WILL RETURN LATE OVERNIGHT. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...BROKEN RECORD CONTINUES WITH FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PAIR OF DOMINANT SWELL TRAINS HAVE ARRIVED
TO THE WATERS AND WILL REMAIN IN SOME FORM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. STILL HAVE SOME FRESH SWELL FROM NORTHWEST WINDS OFF THE
WESTERN BC COAST COMBINING WITH THE SWELLS TO PRODUCE SOMEWHAT
CHOPPY SEAS. COMBINED SEAS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FT THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE EASING TO AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL STAY FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WITH ONLY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED GUSTS PUSHING TO 20 KTS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 271001
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER THE TRIPLE POINT OF OREGON...WASHINGTON AND IDAHO.
THIS LOW HAS MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND IT AND INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY EASTERN MOST AREAS YESTERDAY AND LAST EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THEN INTO
IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...AND OUT OF THE CWA...TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE THIS UPPER LOW
HAS THE MOST INFLUENCE ON THE CWA. HOWEVER THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED THERE AS WELL TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND AFTER TODAY
OVER THE CWA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME WARMER AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL
BE DRIER...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BY
FRIDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REACH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAKING THIS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
THE VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
(THROUGH FRIDAY). 88

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY AND FAIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OREGON EAST TO GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES, AND INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
AND THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE,
THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NO LONGER LOOKS TO COVER THE
ENTIRE AREA MONDAY. WILL RUN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED FOOTHILLS, AND EAST TO GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES.
FOR NOW THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
LOOKING TO BE EVEN MORE LIMITED, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
STORMS OVER OUR EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON AS
UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER AREA. CEILINGS WILL BE 080-100 FT AND AS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED. ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR KPDT AND KALW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  75  52  79  55 /  20  20  10  10
ALW  76  57  82  61 /  20  20  10  10
PSC  82  55  86  58 /  20  10  10  10
YKM  81  55  83  56 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  80  54  85  56 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  81  53  85  55 /  20  20  10  10
RDM  75  45  78  47 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  70  47  75  49 /  40  30  20  20
GCD  73  46  78  48 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  83  57  86  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/90/90




000
FXUS66 KPDT 271001
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER THE TRIPLE POINT OF OREGON...WASHINGTON AND IDAHO.
THIS LOW HAS MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND IT AND INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY EASTERN MOST AREAS YESTERDAY AND LAST EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THEN INTO
IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...AND OUT OF THE CWA...TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE THIS UPPER LOW
HAS THE MOST INFLUENCE ON THE CWA. HOWEVER THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED THERE AS WELL TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND AFTER TODAY
OVER THE CWA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME WARMER AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL
BE DRIER...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BY
FRIDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REACH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAKING THIS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
THE VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
(THROUGH FRIDAY). 88

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY AND FAIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OREGON EAST TO GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES, AND INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
AND THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE,
THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NO LONGER LOOKS TO COVER THE
ENTIRE AREA MONDAY. WILL RUN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED FOOTHILLS, AND EAST TO GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES.
FOR NOW THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
LOOKING TO BE EVEN MORE LIMITED, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
STORMS OVER OUR EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON AS
UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER AREA. CEILINGS WILL BE 080-100 FT AND AS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED. ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR KPDT AND KALW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  75  52  79  55 /  20  20  10  10
ALW  76  57  82  61 /  20  20  10  10
PSC  82  55  86  58 /  20  10  10  10
YKM  81  55  83  56 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  80  54  85  56 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  81  53  85  55 /  20  20  10  10
RDM  75  45  78  47 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  70  47  75  49 /  40  30  20  20
GCD  73  46  78  48 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  83  57  86  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/90/90



000
FXUS66 KPDT 271001
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER THE TRIPLE POINT OF OREGON...WASHINGTON AND IDAHO.
THIS LOW HAS MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND IT AND INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY EASTERN MOST AREAS YESTERDAY AND LAST EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THEN INTO
IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...AND OUT OF THE CWA...TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE THIS UPPER LOW
HAS THE MOST INFLUENCE ON THE CWA. HOWEVER THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED THERE AS WELL TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND AFTER TODAY
OVER THE CWA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME WARMER AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL
BE DRIER...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BY
FRIDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REACH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAKING THIS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
THE VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
(THROUGH FRIDAY). 88

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY AND FAIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OREGON EAST TO GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES, AND INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
AND THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE,
THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NO LONGER LOOKS TO COVER THE
ENTIRE AREA MONDAY. WILL RUN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED FOOTHILLS, AND EAST TO GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES.
FOR NOW THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
LOOKING TO BE EVEN MORE LIMITED, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
STORMS OVER OUR EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON AS
UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER AREA. CEILINGS WILL BE 080-100 FT AND AS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED. ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR KPDT AND KALW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  75  52  79  55 /  20  20  10  10
ALW  76  57  82  61 /  20  20  10  10
PSC  82  55  86  58 /  20  10  10  10
YKM  81  55  83  56 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  80  54  85  56 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  81  53  85  55 /  20  20  10  10
RDM  75  45  78  47 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  70  47  75  49 /  40  30  20  20
GCD  73  46  78  48 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  83  57  86  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/90/90




000
FXUS66 KPDT 271001
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER THE TRIPLE POINT OF OREGON...WASHINGTON AND IDAHO.
THIS LOW HAS MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND IT AND INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY EASTERN MOST AREAS YESTERDAY AND LAST EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THEN INTO
IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...AND OUT OF THE CWA...TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE THIS UPPER LOW
HAS THE MOST INFLUENCE ON THE CWA. HOWEVER THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED THERE AS WELL TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND AFTER TODAY
OVER THE CWA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME WARMER AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL
BE DRIER...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BY
FRIDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REACH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAKING THIS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
THE VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
(THROUGH FRIDAY). 88

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY AND FAIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OREGON EAST TO GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES, AND INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
AND THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE,
THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NO LONGER LOOKS TO COVER THE
ENTIRE AREA MONDAY. WILL RUN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED FOOTHILLS, AND EAST TO GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES.
FOR NOW THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
LOOKING TO BE EVEN MORE LIMITED, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
STORMS OVER OUR EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON AS
UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER AREA. CEILINGS WILL BE 080-100 FT AND AS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED. ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR KPDT AND KALW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  75  52  79  55 /  20  20  10  10
ALW  76  57  82  61 /  20  20  10  10
PSC  82  55  86  58 /  20  10  10  10
YKM  81  55  83  56 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  80  54  85  56 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  81  53  85  55 /  20  20  10  10
RDM  75  45  78  47 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  70  47  75  49 /  40  30  20  20
GCD  73  46  78  48 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  83  57  86  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/90/90



000
FXUS66 KMFR 270959
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
259 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FROM MORE WARMING AS
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA
OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADES DOWN TO AROUND CRATER LAKE.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY FAIR TO MODERATE ONLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THERE MAY INSTEAD BE TOWERING CUMULUS
OVER THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS SE SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO
SOUTHERN HALF OF MODOC COUNTY WILL SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BOTH THE NAM12 AND GFS INDICATE
SLIGHT NEGATIVE VALUES OF THE LIFTED INDEX THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR 90
AND LOWER 90S NOW LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN OREGON
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER MANY OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY
AREAS OF INSTABILITY EXPANDS TO COVER SW OREGON. WE WILL HAVE TO
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS DEVELOPMENT AS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY COULD BE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAYS.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A COOLING TREND WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR
TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...LOW PRESSURE JUST
INLAND THIS EVENING WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND
DRIVEN SEAS GOING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN, BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130 WEST AND 140 WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 270959
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
259 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FROM MORE WARMING AS
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA
OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADES DOWN TO AROUND CRATER LAKE.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY FAIR TO MODERATE ONLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THERE MAY INSTEAD BE TOWERING CUMULUS
OVER THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS SE SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO
SOUTHERN HALF OF MODOC COUNTY WILL SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BOTH THE NAM12 AND GFS INDICATE
SLIGHT NEGATIVE VALUES OF THE LIFTED INDEX THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR 90
AND LOWER 90S NOW LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN OREGON
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER MANY OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY
AREAS OF INSTABILITY EXPANDS TO COVER SW OREGON. WE WILL HAVE TO
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS DEVELOPMENT AS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY COULD BE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAYS.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A COOLING TREND WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR
TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...LOW PRESSURE JUST
INLAND THIS EVENING WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND
DRIVEN SEAS GOING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN, BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130 WEST AND 140 WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BTL



000
FXUS66 KPQR 270946
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
245 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...PESKY UPPER LOW OVER NRN ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY PUSH
FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR MASS...WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH LATER THIS
WEEKEND...BRING INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AND A THREAT OF SHOWERS...FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE PESKY PATTERN WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY PUSH ON TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORMS POP OVER
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...AND PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE FAR NORTH OREGON CASCADES. NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT THAT
WILL SEE MUCH OF ANY SHOWERS TO SOUTH OF MT HOOD AS FLOW BECOMES LESS
FAVORABLE.  BUT WILL KEEP A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THERE WITH BEST THREAT
OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES. ALL SHOWERS WILL END SOON AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...AFTER MORNING CLOUDS...SHOULD HAVE AN ABUNDANCE OF
SUNSHINE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. COAST WILL BE LAST TO LOSE
THE CLOUDS. SHOULD GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS...BUT COAST WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS FURTHER ON THU AND FRI...SO SUSPECT THAT THE
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS.  THIS LACK
OF CLOUDS INLAND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S.  EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...WILL
STILL HAVE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY OVER AREAS TO EAST OF THE CASCADES
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE CASCADES CREST. SO WILL KEEP A VERY MINOR
THREAT OF A SHOWER OVER THE HIGH CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS.THAT SAID...MY CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT WILL ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SOME SCRAWNY AFTERNOON CUMULUS.  ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
PACNW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE
A LOT LIKE FRIDAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES EARLY CLEARING TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY ON
SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER...TOO. UNDER WESTERLY FLOW
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CASCADES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHETHER THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
CLEARS OUT OVER THE CASCADES BY THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...HEADING INTO SOMEWHAT OF A SUMMERTIME STRATUS PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH END IFR/LOW END MVFR STRATUS WILL
LINGER NEAR THE COASTLINE WITH PERHAPS SEVERAL HOURS OF CLEARING
ROUGHLY 21-03Z BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE PULLS IT BACK OVER LAND FOR
THE LATE EVENING THROUGH THE MORNING. INLAND TERMINALS WILL LIKELY
SEE A LOWER END MVFR STRATUS DECK 010-015 AGL GENERALLY DURING A
12Z TO 18Z PERIOD WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY SCT CLOUDS. MODERATE
CUMULUS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE 18-04Z TODAY MAINLY NEAR THE CASCADE
CREST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WHEN CIGS AT
ROUGHLY 012 POSSIBLY DRIFT OVER THE FIELD FROM THE NORTHWEST. IF
SO...THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND BURN OFF BY 17Z OR SO.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHALLOW CUMULUS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
APPROACHES WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND
EAST SLOPES. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...BROKEN RECORD CONTINUES WITH FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PAIR OF DOMINANT SWELL TRAINS HAVE ARRIVED
TO THE WATERS AND WILL REMAIN IN SOME FORM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. STILL HAVE SOME FRESH SWELL FROM NORTHWEST WINDS OFF THE
WESTERN BC COAST COMBINING WITH THE SWELLS TO PRODUCE SOMEWHAT
CHOPPY SEAS. COMBINED SEAS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FT THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE EASING TO AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL STAY FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WITH ONLY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED GUSTS PUSHING TO 20 KTS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 270939
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
339 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WAS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER SW IDAHO. THE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SW IDAHO THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE
CENTER OF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON /ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING/ WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED IN SW IDAHO. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN IDAHO TONIGHT AND WESTERN WYOMING ON
THURSDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO MOST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. HIGH
TEMPERATURES /NEAR NORMAL/ TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING WARMER AIR ALOFT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE LOWER 90S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND OFF THE OREGON COAST WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS COULD BE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 18Z/WED.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS...HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE 12KT OR
LESS...BECOMING NW 5-15KT AFTER 18Z/WED. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...NW 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 270939
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
339 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WAS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER SW IDAHO. THE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SW IDAHO THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE
CENTER OF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON /ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING/ WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED IN SW IDAHO. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN IDAHO TONIGHT AND WESTERN WYOMING ON
THURSDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO MOST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. HIGH
TEMPERATURES /NEAR NORMAL/ TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING WARMER AIR ALOFT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE LOWER 90S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND OFF THE OREGON COAST WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS COULD BE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 18Z/WED.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS...HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE 12KT OR
LESS...BECOMING NW 5-15KT AFTER 18Z/WED. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...NW 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 270939
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
339 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WAS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER SW IDAHO. THE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SW IDAHO THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE
CENTER OF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON /ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING/ WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED IN SW IDAHO. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN IDAHO TONIGHT AND WESTERN WYOMING ON
THURSDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO MOST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. HIGH
TEMPERATURES /NEAR NORMAL/ TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING WARMER AIR ALOFT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE LOWER 90S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND OFF THE OREGON COAST WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS COULD BE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 18Z/WED.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS...HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE 12KT OR
LESS...BECOMING NW 5-15KT AFTER 18Z/WED. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...NW 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 270939
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
339 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WAS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER SW IDAHO. THE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SW IDAHO THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE
CENTER OF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON /ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING/ WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED IN SW IDAHO. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN IDAHO TONIGHT AND WESTERN WYOMING ON
THURSDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO MOST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. HIGH
TEMPERATURES /NEAR NORMAL/ TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING WARMER AIR ALOFT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE LOWER 90S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND OFF THE OREGON COAST WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS COULD BE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 18Z/WED.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS...HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE 12KT OR
LESS...BECOMING NW 5-15KT AFTER 18Z/WED. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...NW 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS66 KMFR 270600
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES THROUGH 11
PM PDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
70 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE RECORDED BY THE
NATIONAL LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THESES STORMS ALSO PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS, AS WAS EVIDENCED BY THE 0.52" AND WIND GUST OF 29MPH
RECORDED AT THE ROUND MOUNTAIN RAWS BETWEEN 415PM PDT AND 515PM
PDT. OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE DEVILS GARDEN RAWS AND ALTURAS
AND CANBY RECORDED MEASURABLE RAIN.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINLY ACROSS LAKE COUNTY, AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOK
MARGINAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS
THREAT DRIFTS WESTWARD TO THE CASCADES, THOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE ONLY A TAD MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAN
ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING WITH IT A
HEALTHY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WE EXPECT MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...LOW PRESSURE JUST
INLAND THIS EVENING WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND
DRIVEN SEAS GOING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN, BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130 WEST AND 140 WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BTL/WRIGHT

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
  PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
  THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BTL/CC/TRW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 270600
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES THROUGH 11
PM PDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
70 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE RECORDED BY THE
NATIONAL LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THESES STORMS ALSO PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS, AS WAS EVIDENCED BY THE 0.52" AND WIND GUST OF 29MPH
RECORDED AT THE ROUND MOUNTAIN RAWS BETWEEN 415PM PDT AND 515PM
PDT. OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE DEVILS GARDEN RAWS AND ALTURAS
AND CANBY RECORDED MEASURABLE RAIN.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINLY ACROSS LAKE COUNTY, AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOK
MARGINAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS
THREAT DRIFTS WESTWARD TO THE CASCADES, THOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE ONLY A TAD MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAN
ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING WITH IT A
HEALTHY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WE EXPECT MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...LOW PRESSURE JUST
INLAND THIS EVENING WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND
DRIVEN SEAS GOING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN, BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130 WEST AND 140 WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BTL/WRIGHT

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
  PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
  THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BTL/CC/TRW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 270600
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES THROUGH 11
PM PDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
70 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE RECORDED BY THE
NATIONAL LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THESES STORMS ALSO PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS, AS WAS EVIDENCED BY THE 0.52" AND WIND GUST OF 29MPH
RECORDED AT THE ROUND MOUNTAIN RAWS BETWEEN 415PM PDT AND 515PM
PDT. OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE DEVILS GARDEN RAWS AND ALTURAS
AND CANBY RECORDED MEASURABLE RAIN.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINLY ACROSS LAKE COUNTY, AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOK
MARGINAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS
THREAT DRIFTS WESTWARD TO THE CASCADES, THOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE ONLY A TAD MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAN
ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING WITH IT A
HEALTHY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WE EXPECT MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...LOW PRESSURE JUST
INLAND THIS EVENING WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND
DRIVEN SEAS GOING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN, BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130 WEST AND 140 WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BTL/WRIGHT

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
  PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
  THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BTL/CC/TRW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 270600
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES THROUGH 11
PM PDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
70 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE RECORDED BY THE
NATIONAL LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THESES STORMS ALSO PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS, AS WAS EVIDENCED BY THE 0.52" AND WIND GUST OF 29MPH
RECORDED AT THE ROUND MOUNTAIN RAWS BETWEEN 415PM PDT AND 515PM
PDT. OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE DEVILS GARDEN RAWS AND ALTURAS
AND CANBY RECORDED MEASURABLE RAIN.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINLY ACROSS LAKE COUNTY, AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOK
MARGINAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS
THREAT DRIFTS WESTWARD TO THE CASCADES, THOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE ONLY A TAD MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAN
ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING WITH IT A
HEALTHY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WE EXPECT MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...LOW PRESSURE JUST
INLAND THIS EVENING WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND
DRIVEN SEAS GOING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN, BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130 WEST AND 140 WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BTL/WRIGHT

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
  PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
  THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BTL/CC/TRW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 270600
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES THROUGH 11
PM PDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
70 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE RECORDED BY THE
NATIONAL LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THESES STORMS ALSO PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS, AS WAS EVIDENCED BY THE 0.52" AND WIND GUST OF 29MPH
RECORDED AT THE ROUND MOUNTAIN RAWS BETWEEN 415PM PDT AND 515PM
PDT. OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE DEVILS GARDEN RAWS AND ALTURAS
AND CANBY RECORDED MEASURABLE RAIN.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINLY ACROSS LAKE COUNTY, AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOK
MARGINAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS
THREAT DRIFTS WESTWARD TO THE CASCADES, THOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE ONLY A TAD MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAN
ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING WITH IT A
HEALTHY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WE EXPECT MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...LOW PRESSURE JUST
INLAND THIS EVENING WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND
DRIVEN SEAS GOING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN, BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130 WEST AND 140 WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BTL/WRIGHT

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
  PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
  THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BTL/CC/TRW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 270600
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES THROUGH 11
PM PDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
70 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE RECORDED BY THE
NATIONAL LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THESES STORMS ALSO PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS, AS WAS EVIDENCED BY THE 0.52" AND WIND GUST OF 29MPH
RECORDED AT THE ROUND MOUNTAIN RAWS BETWEEN 415PM PDT AND 515PM
PDT. OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE DEVILS GARDEN RAWS AND ALTURAS
AND CANBY RECORDED MEASURABLE RAIN.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINLY ACROSS LAKE COUNTY, AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOK
MARGINAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS
THREAT DRIFTS WESTWARD TO THE CASCADES, THOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE ONLY A TAD MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAN
ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING WITH IT A
HEALTHY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WE EXPECT MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...LOW PRESSURE JUST
INLAND THIS EVENING WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND
DRIVEN SEAS GOING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN, BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130 WEST AND 140 WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BTL/WRIGHT

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
  PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
  THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BTL/CC/TRW




000
FXUS66 KPDT 270507 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1005 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FOR THE FORECAST AREA HAS
BEEN FROM YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN
INTO THE BLUES OF NORTHEAST OREGON. RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DIMINISHING HOWEVER APPEARS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE SOUTH. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL IDAHO
WEDNESDAY. STILL SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION SO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
WASHINGTON CASCADES ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN INTO NORTHEAST
OREGON. 94

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON AS UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER
AREA.  CEILINGS WILL BE 080-100 FT AND AS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SCATTERED. ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR
KPDT AND KALW. 76

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
AND BE OVER CENTRAL IDAHO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN DECREASING ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN
WYOMING BUT LEAVES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY SO SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.


LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FLOW TO
BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND MAYBE NEAR 90 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OREGON BY
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THEN VARY IN
THE MOVEMENT EAST OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW OVER EASTERN
OREGON THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT EAST WITH DRYING AND
WARMING. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  76  53  82 /  30  20  20  10
ALW  56  77  58  85 /  40  20  20  10
PSC  58  83  56  88 /  50  20  10  10
YKM  55  82  56  85 /  40  10  10  10
HRI  54  81  55  87 /  30  20  10   0
ELN  54  82  54  87 /  40  20  20  10
RDM  41  76  46  80 /  10  10  10   0
LGD  51  71  48  77 /  40  40  30  20
GCD  48  74  47  80 /  10  20  20  10
DLS  57  84  58  88 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94




000
FXUS66 KPDT 270507 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1005 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FOR THE FORECAST AREA HAS
BEEN FROM YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN
INTO THE BLUES OF NORTHEAST OREGON. RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DIMINISHING HOWEVER APPEARS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE SOUTH. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL IDAHO
WEDNESDAY. STILL SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION SO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
WASHINGTON CASCADES ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN INTO NORTHEAST
OREGON. 94

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON AS UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER
AREA.  CEILINGS WILL BE 080-100 FT AND AS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SCATTERED. ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR
KPDT AND KALW. 76

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
AND BE OVER CENTRAL IDAHO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN DECREASING ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN
WYOMING BUT LEAVES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY SO SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.


LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FLOW TO
BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND MAYBE NEAR 90 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OREGON BY
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THEN VARY IN
THE MOVEMENT EAST OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW OVER EASTERN
OREGON THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT EAST WITH DRYING AND
WARMING. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  76  53  82 /  30  20  20  10
ALW  56  77  58  85 /  40  20  20  10
PSC  58  83  56  88 /  50  20  10  10
YKM  55  82  56  85 /  40  10  10  10
HRI  54  81  55  87 /  30  20  10   0
ELN  54  82  54  87 /  40  20  20  10
RDM  41  76  46  80 /  10  10  10   0
LGD  51  71  48  77 /  40  40  30  20
GCD  48  74  47  80 /  10  20  20  10
DLS  57  84  58  88 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94



000
FXUS66 KMFR 270409
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
909 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES THROUGH 11
PM PDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
70 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE RECORDED BY THE
NATIONAL LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOUAND
MODOC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THESES STORMS ALSO PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS, AS WAS EVIDENCED BY THE 0.52" AND WIND GUST OF 29MPH
RECORDED AT THE ROUND MOUNTAIN RAWS BETWEEN 415PM PDT AND 515PM
PDT. OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE DEVILS GARDEN RAWS AND ALTURAS
AND CANBY RECORDED MEASURABLE RAIN.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINLY ACROSS LAKE COUNTY, AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOK
MARGINAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS
THREAT DRIFTS WESTWARD TO THE CASCADES, THOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE ONLY A TAD MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAN
ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING WITH IT A
HEALTHY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WE EXPECT MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MODOC COUNTY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THEN THEY
WILL DIMINISH. AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST AND OVER THE WESTERN UMPQUA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...
SURFACE HIGH  PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130W AND 140W
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND DRIVEN
SEAS GOING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS
TO WEAKEN, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. -WRIGHT

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
  PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
  THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BTL/CC/TRW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 270409
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
909 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES THROUGH 11
PM PDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
70 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE RECORDED BY THE
NATIONAL LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOUAND
MODOC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THESES STORMS ALSO PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS, AS WAS EVIDENCED BY THE 0.52" AND WIND GUST OF 29MPH
RECORDED AT THE ROUND MOUNTAIN RAWS BETWEEN 415PM PDT AND 515PM
PDT. OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE DEVILS GARDEN RAWS AND ALTURAS
AND CANBY RECORDED MEASURABLE RAIN.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINLY ACROSS LAKE COUNTY, AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOK
MARGINAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS
THREAT DRIFTS WESTWARD TO THE CASCADES, THOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE ONLY A TAD MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAN
ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING WITH IT A
HEALTHY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WE EXPECT MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MODOC COUNTY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THEN THEY
WILL DIMINISH. AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST AND OVER THE WESTERN UMPQUA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...
SURFACE HIGH  PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130W AND 140W
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND DRIVEN
SEAS GOING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS
TO WEAKEN, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. -WRIGHT

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
  PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
  THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BTL/CC/TRW




000
FXUS66 KPQR 270343
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
842 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN WA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE INTO IDAHO TONIGHT AND WED. THE LOW WILL THEN
MOVE OFF TO THE E AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
OFF THE PACIFIC. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN PROGRESSIVELY FEWER CLOUDS AND
WARMING TEMPS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL
LIKELY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...MORE CLOUDS...AND INCREASING
SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EVENING UPDATE...HAVE HAD A
FEW CLOSE CALLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO SNEAK OVER THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY STAYED EAST OF THE CASCADES...BUT MOST
LIKELY SAW BRIEF HEAVY RAIN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ROTATE OVER FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA BORDER. MARINE STRATUS DISSIPATED QUITE A
BIT TODAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SUN THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. MARINE STRATUS HAS ALREADY RETURNED TO THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST...AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH
THE COASTAL GAPS OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
VALID.../27

THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO IDAHO TONIGHT AND
WED. THIS WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY RISE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH TOWARD THE PAC NW. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AS THE
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. SO EXPECT LESS AND LESS OVERNIGHT MARINE STRATUS
INTRUSION AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS
WILL FILL IN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE VALLEY TONIGHT AND WED
MORNING...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNER AND THINK THAT CLOUD BURN
OFF
WILL BE QUITE A BIT SOONER THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE INLAND PUSH LOOKS EVEN WEAKER FOR THU AND FRI
MORNINGS...AND IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN STRATUS FREE. THE COMBINATION OF DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND A
GRADUALLY WARMING AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 70S ON
WED AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S THU AND FRI. NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS AT THE COAST CAPPED IN THE 60S.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT
APPEARS THAT WRAP AROUND FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
WILL KEEP SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE CASCADES THROUGH THU. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FRI AS WE DEVELOP
W/SW FLOW ALOFT. PYLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
PACNW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE
A LOT LIKE FRIDAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES EARLY CLEARING TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY ON
SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER...TOO. UNDER WESTERLY FLOW
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CASCADES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHETHER THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
CLEARS OUT OVER THE CASCADES BY THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...MARINE CLOUDS WORKING ITS WAY BACK TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EXPECTED. STRATUS AROUND
5000-7000 FEET ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON ADVANCING INTO THE
INTERIOR OF NW OREGON. BKN TO OVC CIGS GENERALLY NORTH OF KUAO.
MODELS ALL SHOW ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO INDICATE
MORE MARINE CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE SHALLOWER THAN TODAY. SO CIGS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY MVFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE IFR ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY
NEAR KEUG. THE LOWER INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO EARLIER CLEARING ON
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY BY NOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WED. THEN A LOWER LAYER SHOULD FORM PROVIDED
ENOUGH CLEARING FROM THE HIGHER LAYER. ANY MVFR CIGS THAT FORM IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE 18Z TO 20Z WED TIME FRAME. /MH

&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE A MORE DOMINANT PAIR OF SWELL TRAINS ARRIVE FROM WELL OFF
TO THE WEST AND THE DISTANT SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY STILL HAVE SOME
FRESH SWELL FROM WINDS OFF THE WESTERN BC COAST TO COMBINE AND
PRODUCE SOMEWHAT CHOPPY AND CONFUSED SEAS. ON THE UP SIDE...
DOMINANT SEAS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY COMBINE TO AROUND 7 FT MAXIMUM AT
TIMES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND THUS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. OVERALL WINDS WILL STAY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH
ONLY BRIEF AND LOCALIZED GUSTS PUSHING OVER 20 KTS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WATERS. /JBONK/PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 270343
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
842 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN WA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE INTO IDAHO TONIGHT AND WED. THE LOW WILL THEN
MOVE OFF TO THE E AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
OFF THE PACIFIC. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN PROGRESSIVELY FEWER CLOUDS AND
WARMING TEMPS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL
LIKELY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...MORE CLOUDS...AND INCREASING
SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EVENING UPDATE...HAVE HAD A
FEW CLOSE CALLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO SNEAK OVER THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY STAYED EAST OF THE CASCADES...BUT MOST
LIKELY SAW BRIEF HEAVY RAIN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ROTATE OVER FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA BORDER. MARINE STRATUS DISSIPATED QUITE A
BIT TODAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SUN THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. MARINE STRATUS HAS ALREADY RETURNED TO THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST...AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH
THE COASTAL GAPS OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
VALID.../27

THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO IDAHO TONIGHT AND
WED. THIS WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY RISE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH TOWARD THE PAC NW. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AS THE
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. SO EXPECT LESS AND LESS OVERNIGHT MARINE STRATUS
INTRUSION AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS
WILL FILL IN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE VALLEY TONIGHT AND WED
MORNING...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNER AND THINK THAT CLOUD BURN
OFF
WILL BE QUITE A BIT SOONER THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE INLAND PUSH LOOKS EVEN WEAKER FOR THU AND FRI
MORNINGS...AND IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN STRATUS FREE. THE COMBINATION OF DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND A
GRADUALLY WARMING AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 70S ON
WED AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S THU AND FRI. NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS AT THE COAST CAPPED IN THE 60S.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT
APPEARS THAT WRAP AROUND FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
WILL KEEP SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE CASCADES THROUGH THU. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FRI AS WE DEVELOP
W/SW FLOW ALOFT. PYLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
PACNW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE
A LOT LIKE FRIDAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES EARLY CLEARING TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY ON
SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER...TOO. UNDER WESTERLY FLOW
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CASCADES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHETHER THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
CLEARS OUT OVER THE CASCADES BY THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...MARINE CLOUDS WORKING ITS WAY BACK TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EXPECTED. STRATUS AROUND
5000-7000 FEET ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON ADVANCING INTO THE
INTERIOR OF NW OREGON. BKN TO OVC CIGS GENERALLY NORTH OF KUAO.
MODELS ALL SHOW ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO INDICATE
MORE MARINE CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE SHALLOWER THAN TODAY. SO CIGS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY MVFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE IFR ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY
NEAR KEUG. THE LOWER INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO EARLIER CLEARING ON
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY BY NOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WED. THEN A LOWER LAYER SHOULD FORM PROVIDED
ENOUGH CLEARING FROM THE HIGHER LAYER. ANY MVFR CIGS THAT FORM IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE 18Z TO 20Z WED TIME FRAME. /MH

&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE A MORE DOMINANT PAIR OF SWELL TRAINS ARRIVE FROM WELL OFF
TO THE WEST AND THE DISTANT SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY STILL HAVE SOME
FRESH SWELL FROM WINDS OFF THE WESTERN BC COAST TO COMBINE AND
PRODUCE SOMEWHAT CHOPPY AND CONFUSED SEAS. ON THE UP SIDE...
DOMINANT SEAS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY COMBINE TO AROUND 7 FT MAXIMUM AT
TIMES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND THUS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. OVERALL WINDS WILL STAY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH
ONLY BRIEF AND LOCALIZED GUSTS PUSHING OVER 20 KTS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WATERS. /JBONK/PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 270306
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
906 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN MALHEUR
COUNTY INTO OWYHEE COUNTY AS WELL AS THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
THIS EVENING. AT 03Z...RADAR IS SHOWING A SMALL AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR PARMA...NYSSA AND NEW PLYMOUTH MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS MIDDLETON...EMMETT AND CALDWELL. LATEST HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THE BOISE METRO
AREA...MAINLY STAR AND EAGLE...IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. EXPECT BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE
LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER LEWISTON. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
CURRENT FORECAST AS THIS COVERED WELL SO NO UPDATE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AFTER 18Z MAY 28. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE
FROM KBKE TO KREO THROUGH 06Z AND POSSIBLY ACROSS IDAHO MTNS
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING AFTER 18Z MAY 28.
SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE UP TO 12 KTS EXCEPT STRONGER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER ERN WASHINGTON AS OF 18Z. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE
AND PASS OVER CENTRAL IDAHO OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AND
DEPARTING TO THE NE INTO MONTANA BY LATE THU. CONVECTION HAS AGAIN
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE
AND CONCENTRATED IN OWYHEE COUNTY. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER
OVERNIGHT...MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL AND WE EXPECT A BETTER-
THAN-NORMAL CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE AGAIN FORECAST FOR WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER ALL BUT
WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY. THERE WILL BE A MIN IN CONVECTION LATE WED
NIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING THU. BY THU AFTERNOON...THE MAIN
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES BACK TO THE IDAHO SIDE AND NRN
BAKER COUNTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...AND A LITTLE LOWER THAN OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINIMAL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE CLOSED LOW
MOVES TO OUR EAST...PRECIP CHANCES RAPIDLY DROP OFF AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS MAY REMAIN IN THE AFTERNOONS...BUT OTHERWISE A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
DECREASE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JS
AVIATION.....VM
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/DD



000
FXUS65 KBOI 270306
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
906 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN MALHEUR
COUNTY INTO OWYHEE COUNTY AS WELL AS THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
THIS EVENING. AT 03Z...RADAR IS SHOWING A SMALL AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR PARMA...NYSSA AND NEW PLYMOUTH MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS MIDDLETON...EMMETT AND CALDWELL. LATEST HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THE BOISE METRO
AREA...MAINLY STAR AND EAGLE...IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. EXPECT BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE
LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER LEWISTON. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
CURRENT FORECAST AS THIS COVERED WELL SO NO UPDATE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AFTER 18Z MAY 28. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE
FROM KBKE TO KREO THROUGH 06Z AND POSSIBLY ACROSS IDAHO MTNS
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING AFTER 18Z MAY 28.
SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE UP TO 12 KTS EXCEPT STRONGER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER ERN WASHINGTON AS OF 18Z. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE
AND PASS OVER CENTRAL IDAHO OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AND
DEPARTING TO THE NE INTO MONTANA BY LATE THU. CONVECTION HAS AGAIN
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE
AND CONCENTRATED IN OWYHEE COUNTY. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER
OVERNIGHT...MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL AND WE EXPECT A BETTER-
THAN-NORMAL CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE AGAIN FORECAST FOR WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER ALL BUT
WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY. THERE WILL BE A MIN IN CONVECTION LATE WED
NIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING THU. BY THU AFTERNOON...THE MAIN
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES BACK TO THE IDAHO SIDE AND NRN
BAKER COUNTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...AND A LITTLE LOWER THAN OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINIMAL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE CLOSED LOW
MOVES TO OUR EAST...PRECIP CHANCES RAPIDLY DROP OFF AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS MAY REMAIN IN THE AFTERNOONS...BUT OTHERWISE A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
DECREASE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JS
AVIATION.....VM
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/DD



000
FXUS66 KPDT 270205
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
705 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FOR THE FORECAST AREA HAS
BEEN FROM YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN
INTO THE BLUES OF NORTHEAST OREGON. RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DIMINISHING HOWEVER APPEARS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE SOUTH. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL IDAHO
WEDNESDAY. STILL SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION SO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
WASHINGTON CASCADES ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN INTO NORTHEAST
OREGON. 94

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
AND BE OVER CENTRAL IDAHO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN DECREASING ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN
WYOMING BUT LEAVES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY SO SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.


LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FLOW TO
BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND MAYBE NEAR 90 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OREGON BY
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THEN VARY IN
THE MOVEMENT EAST OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW OVER EASTERN
OREGON THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT EAST WITH DRYING AND
WARMING. 93

AVIATION...0Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
OREGON AS UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER AREA.  CEILINGS WILL BE 080-100 FT
AND AS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED...I HAVE NOT INCLUDE
AND MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM FOR SPECIFIC TAF LOCATIONS...JUST
SHOWERS. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  76  53  82 /  30  20  20  10
ALW  56  77  58  85 /  40  20  20  10
PSC  58  83  56  88 /  50  20  10  10
YKM  55  82  56  85 /  40  10  10  10
HRI  54  81  55  87 /  30  20  10   0
ELN  54  82  54  87 /  40  20  20  10
RDM  41  76  46  80 /  10  10  10   0
LGD  51  71  48  77 /  40  40  30  20
GCD  48  74  47  80 /  10  20  20  10
DLS  57  84  58  88 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94




000
FXUS66 KPDT 270205
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
705 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FOR THE FORECAST AREA HAS
BEEN FROM YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN
INTO THE BLUES OF NORTHEAST OREGON. RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DIMINISHING HOWEVER APPEARS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE SOUTH. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL IDAHO
WEDNESDAY. STILL SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION SO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
WASHINGTON CASCADES ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN INTO NORTHEAST
OREGON. 94

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
AND BE OVER CENTRAL IDAHO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN DECREASING ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN
WYOMING BUT LEAVES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY SO SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.


LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FLOW TO
BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND MAYBE NEAR 90 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OREGON BY
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THEN VARY IN
THE MOVEMENT EAST OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW OVER EASTERN
OREGON THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT EAST WITH DRYING AND
WARMING. 93

AVIATION...0Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
OREGON AS UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER AREA.  CEILINGS WILL BE 080-100 FT
AND AS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED...I HAVE NOT INCLUDE
AND MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM FOR SPECIFIC TAF LOCATIONS...JUST
SHOWERS. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  76  53  82 /  30  20  20  10
ALW  56  77  58  85 /  40  20  20  10
PSC  58  83  56  88 /  50  20  10  10
YKM  55  82  56  85 /  40  10  10  10
HRI  54  81  55  87 /  30  20  10   0
ELN  54  82  54  87 /  40  20  20  10
RDM  41  76  46  80 /  10  10  10   0
LGD  51  71  48  77 /  40  40  30  20
GCD  48  74  47  80 /  10  20  20  10
DLS  57  84  58  88 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94



000
FXUS66 KMFR 270012
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
512 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MODOC COUNTY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS AND GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THEN THEY WILL DIMINISH. AREAS OF
STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WESTERN UMPQUA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC

MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130W AND 140W THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND DRIVEN SEAS GOING
OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN,
BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH
WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 270012
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
512 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MODOC COUNTY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS AND GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THEN THEY WILL DIMINISH. AREAS OF
STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WESTERN UMPQUA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC

MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130W AND 140W THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND DRIVEN SEAS GOING
OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN,
BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH
WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 270012
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
512 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MODOC COUNTY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS AND GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THEN THEY WILL DIMINISH. AREAS OF
STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WESTERN UMPQUA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC

MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130W AND 140W THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND DRIVEN SEAS GOING
OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN,
BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH
WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 262136
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
236 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN WA
TODAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE INTO IDAHO TONIGHT AND WED. THE LOW WILL
THEN MOVE OFF TO THE E AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM OFF THE PACIFIC. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN PROGRESSIVELY
FEWER CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRES WILL LIKELY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...MORE CLOUDS...AND
INCREASING SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR SPOKANE WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY UNDER THE
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT OVER E WASHINGTON AND FAR NW OREGON. BASED
ON THE LATEST NWS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY...THERE ARE NOW
SOME SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE S WASHINGTON
CASCADES. WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE S
WASH CASCADE CREST IN OUR FCST AREA...ALTHOUGH THINK THAT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE E SLOPES.
ELSEWHERE...MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE STEADILY DISSIPATED THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST EVERYONE SEEING SOME SUNSHINE BY THE TIME THE
DAY IS OVER.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO IDAHO TONIGHT AND
WED. THIS WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY RISE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH TOWARD THE PAC NW. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AS THE
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. SO EXPECT LESS AND LESS OVERNIGHT MARINE STRATUS
INTRUSION AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS
WILL FILL IN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE VALLEY TONIGHT AND WED
MORNING...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNER AND THINK THAT CLOUD BURN OFF
WILL BE QUITE A BIT SOONER THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE INLAND PUSH LOOKS EVEN WEAKER FOR THU AND FRI
MORNINGS...AND IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN STRATUS FREE. THE COMBINATION OF DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND A
GRADUALLY WARMING AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 70S ON
WED AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S THU AND FRI. NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS AT THE COAST CAPPED IN THE 60S.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT
APPEARS THAT WRAP AROUND FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
WILL KEEP SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE CASCADES THROUGH THU. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FRI AS WE DEVELOP
W/SW FLOW ALOFT. PYLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
PACNW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE
A LOT LIKE FRIDAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES EARLY CLEARING TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY ON
SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER...TOO. UNDER WESTERLY FLOW
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CASCADES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHETHER THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
CLEARS OUT OVER THE CASCADES BY THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...MARINE CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO THIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BUT STILL HANGING TOUGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS AND
WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO THIN
AND CLEAR TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS TO THE NORTH AROUND
PUGET SOUND SO STILL MORE CLOUDS TO ADVECT SOUTH INTO OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ALL SHOW ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO INDICATE MORE MARINE CLOUDS OVER MUCH
OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ALSO
SUGGEST THAT THE MARINE INVERSION WILL BE LOWERING DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...SO CIGS WILL BE MORE LIKELY MVFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE
IFR ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY NEAR KEUG. THE LOWER INVERSION
SHOULD LEAD TO EARLIER CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY BY NOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS AROUND 040 SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED
IN THE 2 TO 4 PM TIME FRAME. EXPECT CIGS TO RETURN LATE EVENING
OR AROUND MIDNIGHT...BECOMING MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EARLIER CLEARING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
BY NOON. PT

&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE A MORE DOMINANT PAIR OF SWELL TRAINS ARRIVE FROM WELL OFF
TO THE WEST AND THE DISTANT SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY STILL HAVE SOME
FRESH SWELL FROM WINDS OFF THE WESTERN BC COAST TO COMBINE AND
PRODUCE SOMEWHAT CHOPPY AND CONFUSED SEAS. ON THE UP SIDE...
DOMINANT SEAS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY COMBINE TO AROUND 7 FT MAXIMUM AT
TIMES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND THUS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. OVERALL WINDS WILL STAY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH
ONLY BRIEF AND LOCALIZED GUSTS PUSHING OVER 20 KTS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WATERS. /JBONK/PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 262132
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC


&&

.AVIATION...ALONG THE COAST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST AROUND 02-03Z AND BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE IN THE EVENING
THROUGH WEDENSDAY MORNING. INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THIS EVENING, EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED MFR CIGS IN
NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY THROUGH AROUND 23Z. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN EXPECT MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR
CIGS TO REDEVELOP IN THE COQUILLE VALLEY TO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130W AND 140W THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND DRIVEN SEAS GOING OVER THE
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN, BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

CC/DW/WRIGHT



000
FXUS66 KMFR 262132
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC


&&

.AVIATION...ALONG THE COAST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST AROUND 02-03Z AND BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE IN THE EVENING
THROUGH WEDENSDAY MORNING. INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THIS EVENING, EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED MFR CIGS IN
NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY THROUGH AROUND 23Z. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN EXPECT MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR
CIGS TO REDEVELOP IN THE COQUILLE VALLEY TO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130W AND 140W THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND DRIVEN SEAS GOING OVER THE
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN, BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

CC/DW/WRIGHT




000
FXUS66 KPDT 262110
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
210 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
AND BE OVER CENTRAL IDAHO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN DECREASING ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN
WYOMING BUT LEAVES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY SO SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FLOW TO
BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND MAYBE NEAR 90 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OREGON BY
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THEN VARY IN
THE MOVEMENT EAST OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW OVER EASTERN
OREGON THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT EAST WITH DRYING AND
WARMING. 93


&&

.AVIATION...0Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
OREGON AS UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER AREA.  CEILINGS WILL BE 080-100 FT
AND AS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED...I HAVE NOT INCLUDE
AND MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM FOR SPECIFIC TAF LOCATIONS...JUST
SHOWERS. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. 93


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  77  53  82 /  20  20  20  10
ALW  56  78  58  85 /  30  20  20  10
PSC  58  83  56  88 /  30  20  10  10
YKM  55  82  56  85 /  40  10  10  10
HRI  54  81  55  87 /  20  20  10   0
ELN  54  82  54  87 /  40  20  20  10
RDM  41  76  46  80 /  10  10  10   0
LGD  50  71  48  77 /  40  40  30  20
GCD  48  73  47  80 /  10  20  20  10
DLS  57  84  58  88 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/93/93



000
FXUS66 KPDT 262110
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
210 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
AND BE OVER CENTRAL IDAHO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN DECREASING ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN
WYOMING BUT LEAVES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY SO SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FLOW TO
BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND MAYBE NEAR 90 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OREGON BY
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THEN VARY IN
THE MOVEMENT EAST OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW OVER EASTERN
OREGON THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT EAST WITH DRYING AND
WARMING. 93


&&

.AVIATION...0Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
OREGON AS UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER AREA.  CEILINGS WILL BE 080-100 FT
AND AS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED...I HAVE NOT INCLUDE
AND MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM FOR SPECIFIC TAF LOCATIONS...JUST
SHOWERS. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. 93


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  77  53  82 /  20  20  20  10
ALW  56  78  58  85 /  30  20  20  10
PSC  58  83  56  88 /  30  20  10  10
YKM  55  82  56  85 /  40  10  10  10
HRI  54  81  55  87 /  20  20  10   0
ELN  54  82  54  87 /  40  20  20  10
RDM  41  76  46  80 /  10  10  10   0
LGD  50  71  48  77 /  40  40  30  20
GCD  48  73  47  80 /  10  20  20  10
DLS  57  84  58  88 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/93/93



000
FXUS66 KPDT 262110
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
210 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
AND BE OVER CENTRAL IDAHO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN DECREASING ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN
WYOMING BUT LEAVES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY SO SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FLOW TO
BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND MAYBE NEAR 90 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OREGON BY
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THEN VARY IN
THE MOVEMENT EAST OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW OVER EASTERN
OREGON THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT EAST WITH DRYING AND
WARMING. 93


&&

.AVIATION...0Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
OREGON AS UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER AREA.  CEILINGS WILL BE 080-100 FT
AND AS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED...I HAVE NOT INCLUDE
AND MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM FOR SPECIFIC TAF LOCATIONS...JUST
SHOWERS. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. 93


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  77  53  82 /  20  20  20  10
ALW  56  78  58  85 /  30  20  20  10
PSC  58  83  56  88 /  30  20  10  10
YKM  55  82  56  85 /  40  10  10  10
HRI  54  81  55  87 /  20  20  10   0
ELN  54  82  54  87 /  40  20  20  10
RDM  41  76  46  80 /  10  10  10   0
LGD  50  71  48  77 /  40  40  30  20
GCD  48  73  47  80 /  10  20  20  10
DLS  57  84  58  88 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/93/93



000
FXUS66 KPDT 262110
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
210 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
AND BE OVER CENTRAL IDAHO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN DECREASING ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN
WYOMING BUT LEAVES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY SO SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FLOW TO
BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND MAYBE NEAR 90 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OREGON BY
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THEN VARY IN
THE MOVEMENT EAST OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW OVER EASTERN
OREGON THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT EAST WITH DRYING AND
WARMING. 93


&&

.AVIATION...0Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
OREGON AS UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER AREA.  CEILINGS WILL BE 080-100 FT
AND AS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED...I HAVE NOT INCLUDE
AND MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM FOR SPECIFIC TAF LOCATIONS...JUST
SHOWERS. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. 93


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  77  53  82 /  20  20  20  10
ALW  56  78  58  85 /  30  20  20  10
PSC  58  83  56  88 /  30  20  10  10
YKM  55  82  56  85 /  40  10  10  10
HRI  54  81  55  87 /  20  20  10   0
ELN  54  82  54  87 /  40  20  20  10
RDM  41  76  46  80 /  10  10  10   0
LGD  50  71  48  77 /  40  40  30  20
GCD  48  73  47  80 /  10  20  20  10
DLS  57  84  58  88 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/93/93



000
FXUS65 KBOI 262045
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
245 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER ERN WASHINGTON AS OF 18Z. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE
AND PASS OVER CENTRAL IDAHO OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AND
DEPARTING TO THE NE INTO MONTANA BY LATE THU. CONVECTION HAS AGAIN
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE
AND CONCENTRATED IN OWYHEE COUNTY. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER
OVERNIGHT...MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL AND WE EXPECT A BETTER-
THAN-NORMAL CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE AGAIN FORECAST FOR WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER ALL BUT
WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY. THERE WILL BE A MIN IN CONVECTION LATE WED
NIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING THU. BY THU AFTERNOON...THE MAIN
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES BACK TO THE IDAHO SIDE AND NRN
BAKER COUNTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...AND A LITTLE LOWER THAN OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE CLOSED LOW
MOVES TO OUR EAST...PRECIP CHANCES RAPIDLY DROP OFF AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS MAY REMAIN IN THE AFTERNOONS...BUT OTHERWISE A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
DECREASE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LASTING
THROUGH SUNSET...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS...AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AND 12
KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....EP/DD
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 262045
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
245 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER ERN WASHINGTON AS OF 18Z. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE
AND PASS OVER CENTRAL IDAHO OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AND
DEPARTING TO THE NE INTO MONTANA BY LATE THU. CONVECTION HAS AGAIN
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE
AND CONCENTRATED IN OWYHEE COUNTY. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER
OVERNIGHT...MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL AND WE EXPECT A BETTER-
THAN-NORMAL CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE AGAIN FORECAST FOR WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER ALL BUT
WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY. THERE WILL BE A MIN IN CONVECTION LATE WED
NIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING THU. BY THU AFTERNOON...THE MAIN
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES BACK TO THE IDAHO SIDE AND NRN
BAKER COUNTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...AND A LITTLE LOWER THAN OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE CLOSED LOW
MOVES TO OUR EAST...PRECIP CHANCES RAPIDLY DROP OFF AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS MAY REMAIN IN THE AFTERNOONS...BUT OTHERWISE A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
DECREASE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LASTING
THROUGH SUNSET...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS...AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AND 12
KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....EP/DD
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 262045
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
245 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER ERN WASHINGTON AS OF 18Z. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE
AND PASS OVER CENTRAL IDAHO OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AND
DEPARTING TO THE NE INTO MONTANA BY LATE THU. CONVECTION HAS AGAIN
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE
AND CONCENTRATED IN OWYHEE COUNTY. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER
OVERNIGHT...MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL AND WE EXPECT A BETTER-
THAN-NORMAL CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE AGAIN FORECAST FOR WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER ALL BUT
WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY. THERE WILL BE A MIN IN CONVECTION LATE WED
NIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING THU. BY THU AFTERNOON...THE MAIN
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES BACK TO THE IDAHO SIDE AND NRN
BAKER COUNTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...AND A LITTLE LOWER THAN OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE CLOSED LOW
MOVES TO OUR EAST...PRECIP CHANCES RAPIDLY DROP OFF AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS MAY REMAIN IN THE AFTERNOONS...BUT OTHERWISE A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
DECREASE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LASTING
THROUGH SUNSET...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS...AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AND 12
KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....EP/DD
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 262045
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
245 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER ERN WASHINGTON AS OF 18Z. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE
AND PASS OVER CENTRAL IDAHO OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AND
DEPARTING TO THE NE INTO MONTANA BY LATE THU. CONVECTION HAS AGAIN
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE
AND CONCENTRATED IN OWYHEE COUNTY. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER
OVERNIGHT...MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL AND WE EXPECT A BETTER-
THAN-NORMAL CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE AGAIN FORECAST FOR WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER ALL BUT
WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY. THERE WILL BE A MIN IN CONVECTION LATE WED
NIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING THU. BY THU AFTERNOON...THE MAIN
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES BACK TO THE IDAHO SIDE AND NRN
BAKER COUNTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...AND A LITTLE LOWER THAN OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE CLOSED LOW
MOVES TO OUR EAST...PRECIP CHANCES RAPIDLY DROP OFF AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS MAY REMAIN IN THE AFTERNOONS...BUT OTHERWISE A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
DECREASE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LASTING
THROUGH SUNSET...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS...AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AND 12
KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....EP/DD
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS66 KPDT 261723 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1025 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD AND BE OVER CENTRAL IDAHO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL PLACE MOST OF THE FORECAST CAST AREA UNDER AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
RESULTING IN SHOWERS TODAY AND OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD. CENTRAL OREGON WILL ESCAPE
THE SHOWERS AND SEE JUST SOME CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OREGON BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SOUTHERN IDAHO BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THUS A SEASONALLY MILD, BUT UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER SOME OF OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION, WHILE ALSO ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT ALL OF OUR WASHINGTON ZONES AND
OUR EASTERN ZONES IN OREGON TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MANY OF OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME STABILIZATION IS EXPECTED FROM THE BASIN SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
OREGON. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, AND FROM THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS SOUTH TO GRANT COUNTY AND EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. 90

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION, BUT HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES FOR THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK FLAT
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REGION WITH ASSOCIATED SINKING AIR
PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY
THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER US WITH THE RIDGE AXIS HAVING MOVED EAST INTO
IDAHO, WHICH ALLOWS FLOW ALOFT TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH
ENABLES PACIFIC MOISTURE TO BEGIN ENTERING THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE
FLUX INTO THE FORECAST AREA INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL AS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD MARGINALLY
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY.  POLAN

AVIATION...18Z TAFS. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREA EXCEPT
KRDM AND KBDN. CEILINGS 080-100 OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  75  52  78  53 /  20  20  30  10
ALW  76  56  78  57 /  30  30  30  20
PSC  80  58  84  53 /  20  30  20  10
YKM  77  55  82  54 /  40  40  20  10
HRI  79  54  83  52 /  20  20  20  10
ELN  77  54  82  54 /  40  40  20  20
RDM  74  41  77  43 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  71  50  73  48 /  40  40  40  30
GCD  75  48  76  47 /  10  10  20  20
DLS  78  57  83  58 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/93/93



000
FXUS65 KBOI 261605
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1005 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY IN STORE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS A PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FROM CENTRAL HARNEY COUNTY INTO
THE UPPER WEISER RIVER BASIN...LIMITING CONVECTION IN THAT
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...OWYHEE COUNTY AND THE BOISE MTNS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ACTIVE AGAIN TODAY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
TODAY...AND POTENTIALLY LINGERING OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL...AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 35 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN
EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
REACH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTH OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TODAY.
THEREFORE...WE EXPECT A REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN THE OWYHEES AND ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
SMALL HAIL. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...EXCEPT
IN HARNEY COUNTY WHERE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND ALLOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO LOW 90S /10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/ IN THE VALLEYS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY RECORD HIGHS AS RECORDS AT BOISE NOW IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. MODELS AGREE THAT A VIGOROUS TROUGH
/AND COLD FRONT/ WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 261605
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1005 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY IN STORE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS A PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FROM CENTRAL HARNEY COUNTY INTO
THE UPPER WEISER RIVER BASIN...LIMITING CONVECTION IN THAT
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...OWYHEE COUNTY AND THE BOISE MTNS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ACTIVE AGAIN TODAY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
TODAY...AND POTENTIALLY LINGERING OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL...AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 35 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN
EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
REACH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTH OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TODAY.
THEREFORE...WE EXPECT A REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN THE OWYHEES AND ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
SMALL HAIL. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...EXCEPT
IN HARNEY COUNTY WHERE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND ALLOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO LOW 90S /10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/ IN THE VALLEYS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY RECORD HIGHS AS RECORDS AT BOISE NOW IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. MODELS AGREE THAT A VIGOROUS TROUGH
/AND COLD FRONT/ WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS66 KPQR 261553
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
853 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER EASTERN WA THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE INTO IDAHO TONIGHT AND WED. THE LOW WILL
THEN MOVE OFF TO THE E AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM OFF THE PACIFIC. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN PROGRESSIVELY
FEWER CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPS.
&&

.MORNING UPDATE...MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE AGAIN PUSHED INTO MOST
OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND UP INTO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE A BIT THINNER TODAY THAN
WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY...WITH TOPS AROUND 3500 TO 4500 FT. WITH THE
THINNER CLOUDS AND HIGHER CIG HEIGHTS...THERE HAS BEEN NO DRIZZLE
OBSERVED THIS MORNING...SO REMOVED MENTION FROM THE FCST. WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...THERE IS ALREADY SOME NOTABLE CLEARING
IN THE SKY COVER OCCURRING OVER THE WILLAPA HILLS AND THE I-5
CORRIDOR IN SW WASHINGTON. BASED ON THE VISIBLE SAT TRENDS EXPECT
AREAS FURTHER NORTH TO SEE SUN BREAKS A BIT EARLIER
TODAY...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
WE SAW YESTERDAY. WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THE LONGEST DOWN AROUND THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
MOST INTERIOR LOWLANDS SITES SHOULD SEE HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 70 DEG.
PYLE

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES OVER EASTERN WA
EXPECTED TO WOBBLE AROUND NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LANDING IN IDAHO WED
BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE E THU. MARINE CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED ALONG
THE COAST AND INTO THE N VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO
SPREAD FURTHER DOWN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING AS A NW
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...THEN CLOUDS BREAKING UP AGAIN FROM S TO N
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW CLIPS THE NE CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE MODELS SHOW MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT FURTHER E WED AND THU WILL SEE THE
ONSHORE FLOW WEAKEN MORE. AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE WILL SEE
PROGRESSIVELY LESS OF THE MARINE CLOUDS PUSHING INLAND...AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING EACH DAY. BY THU H8 TEMPS IN MODELS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 15 TO 16 DEG C...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO INLAND VALLEY
TEMPS TOPPING 80 AGAIN. WRAP AROUND FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WED AND THU...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THERE EACH AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGE OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE BRINING MARINE CLOUDS INLAND OVERNIGHT...BUT
STRATUS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR OUT BY MIDDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES INLAND TO REACH INTO THE 70S OR LOW 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CASCADES COULD SEE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR EVEN POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A
LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL DISRUPT THE
PERSISTENT PATTERN. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER. BECAUSE OF HOW FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THIS SYSTEM
IS...TIMING COULD VERY WELL CHANGE AS WE APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. -
MCCOY &&

.AVIATION...MARINE CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON EXCEPT THE CENTRAL CASCADES AND HIGHER CENTRAL
CASCADE FOOTHILL AREAS THIS MORNING. THE SALEM RAOB INDICATES THAT
THE TOPS ARE AROUND 3800 FEET...AS DID ONE PIREP NEAR KAST. BASES
NEAR KPDX SUGGEST THAT THE TOPS ARE CLOSER TO 4500 FT INLAND IN
THE NORTH. LOCAL BURNOFF PROGRAM SUGGESTS THAT THE THICKNESS OF
THE CLOUDS WOULD LEAD TO A BURNOFF AROUND THE SAME TIME AS MONDAY
OR PERHAPS AN HOUR EARLIER...BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM OR SO MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR. CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT BUT POSSIBLY A BIT
LATER AND BURN OFF EARLIER ON WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS LATE MORNING.
CIGS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE MVFR...WITH SOME
LOCAL IFR AT THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS AROUND 035-040 WILL BECOME SCATTERED
PERHAPS AS EARLY AS NOON BUT ESPECIALLY BY 1 OR 2 PM. DO NOT
EXPECT CIGS TO RETURN LATE EVENING OR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR
CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT. PT
&&

.MARINE...STILL NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE A MORE DOMINANT PAIR OF SWELL TRAINS ARRIVE FROM WELL
OFF TO THE WEST AND THE DISTANT SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY STILL HAVE
SOME FRESH SWELL FROM WINDS OFF THE WESTERN BC COAST TO COMBINE
AND PRODUCE SOMEWHAT CHOPPY AND CONFUSED SEAS. ON THE UP SIDE...
DOMINANT SEAS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY COMBINE TO AROUND 7 FT AT TIMES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND THUS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. OVERALL WINDS WILL STAY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH
ONLY BRIEF AND LOCALIZED GUSTS PUSHING OVER 20 KTS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WATERS. /JBONK/PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 261553
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
853 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER EASTERN WA THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE INTO IDAHO TONIGHT AND WED. THE LOW WILL
THEN MOVE OFF TO THE E AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM OFF THE PACIFIC. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN PROGRESSIVELY
FEWER CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPS.
&&

.MORNING UPDATE...MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE AGAIN PUSHED INTO MOST
OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND UP INTO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE A BIT THINNER TODAY THAN
WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY...WITH TOPS AROUND 3500 TO 4500 FT. WITH THE
THINNER CLOUDS AND HIGHER CIG HEIGHTS...THERE HAS BEEN NO DRIZZLE
OBSERVED THIS MORNING...SO REMOVED MENTION FROM THE FCST. WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...THERE IS ALREADY SOME NOTABLE CLEARING
IN THE SKY COVER OCCURRING OVER THE WILLAPA HILLS AND THE I-5
CORRIDOR IN SW WASHINGTON. BASED ON THE VISIBLE SAT TRENDS EXPECT
AREAS FURTHER NORTH TO SEE SUN BREAKS A BIT EARLIER
TODAY...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
WE SAW YESTERDAY. WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THE LONGEST DOWN AROUND THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
MOST INTERIOR LOWLANDS SITES SHOULD SEE HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 70 DEG.
PYLE

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES OVER EASTERN WA
EXPECTED TO WOBBLE AROUND NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LANDING IN IDAHO WED
BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE E THU. MARINE CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED ALONG
THE COAST AND INTO THE N VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO
SPREAD FURTHER DOWN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING AS A NW
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...THEN CLOUDS BREAKING UP AGAIN FROM S TO N
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW CLIPS THE NE CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE MODELS SHOW MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT FURTHER E WED AND THU WILL SEE THE
ONSHORE FLOW WEAKEN MORE. AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE WILL SEE
PROGRESSIVELY LESS OF THE MARINE CLOUDS PUSHING INLAND...AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING EACH DAY. BY THU H8 TEMPS IN MODELS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 15 TO 16 DEG C...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO INLAND VALLEY
TEMPS TOPPING 80 AGAIN. WRAP AROUND FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WED AND THU...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THERE EACH AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGE OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE BRINING MARINE CLOUDS INLAND OVERNIGHT...BUT
STRATUS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR OUT BY MIDDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES INLAND TO REACH INTO THE 70S OR LOW 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CASCADES COULD SEE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR EVEN POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A
LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL DISRUPT THE
PERSISTENT PATTERN. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER. BECAUSE OF HOW FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THIS SYSTEM
IS...TIMING COULD VERY WELL CHANGE AS WE APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. -
MCCOY &&

.AVIATION...MARINE CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON EXCEPT THE CENTRAL CASCADES AND HIGHER CENTRAL
CASCADE FOOTHILL AREAS THIS MORNING. THE SALEM RAOB INDICATES THAT
THE TOPS ARE AROUND 3800 FEET...AS DID ONE PIREP NEAR KAST. BASES
NEAR KPDX SUGGEST THAT THE TOPS ARE CLOSER TO 4500 FT INLAND IN
THE NORTH. LOCAL BURNOFF PROGRAM SUGGESTS THAT THE THICKNESS OF
THE CLOUDS WOULD LEAD TO A BURNOFF AROUND THE SAME TIME AS MONDAY
OR PERHAPS AN HOUR EARLIER...BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM OR SO MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR. CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT BUT POSSIBLY A BIT
LATER AND BURN OFF EARLIER ON WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS LATE MORNING.
CIGS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE MVFR...WITH SOME
LOCAL IFR AT THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS AROUND 035-040 WILL BECOME SCATTERED
PERHAPS AS EARLY AS NOON BUT ESPECIALLY BY 1 OR 2 PM. DO NOT
EXPECT CIGS TO RETURN LATE EVENING OR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR
CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT. PT
&&

.MARINE...STILL NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE A MORE DOMINANT PAIR OF SWELL TRAINS ARRIVE FROM WELL
OFF TO THE WEST AND THE DISTANT SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY STILL HAVE
SOME FRESH SWELL FROM WINDS OFF THE WESTERN BC COAST TO COMBINE
AND PRODUCE SOMEWHAT CHOPPY AND CONFUSED SEAS. ON THE UP SIDE...
DOMINANT SEAS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY COMBINE TO AROUND 7 FT AT TIMES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND THUS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. OVERALL WINDS WILL STAY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH
ONLY BRIEF AND LOCALIZED GUSTS PUSHING OVER 20 KTS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WATERS. /JBONK/PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 261534
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
834 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST
OREGON WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES AND WESTERLY
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. MODELS  INDICATE THAT THE
THERMODYNAMICS, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD
SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTNING GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN ISOLATED WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORM AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA.

THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO
BECOME CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
NUDGING INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH MODELS FAVORING POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SIMILAR PATTERN FOR SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...MOVING INLAND AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THIS LOW
APPROACHES...THEN POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY. CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD MAY EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, INCLUDING AREAS WEST OF
THE CASCADES.



&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH SOME
IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST HAVE SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN EARLY
THIS MORNING, ALSO RESULTING IN AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION. SKIES
WILL CLEAR TO THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
RETURN TO THE COAST TONIGHT. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, THEN MODERATE WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. -BPN



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHILE A LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE MAIN EFFECT ON OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE MORE
WARMING ACROSS INLAND ZONES. A FEW SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG THE
LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS EAST NORTHEAST
INTO THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA OF EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY OVER
OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COUNTIES WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS NE INTO THE
MEDICINE LAKE AREA. HOWEVER THE NAM12 SHOWS ROBUST LIFTED INDEX
FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE
GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE. I HAVE INTRODUCED A
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE OVER THE CRATER LAKE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ON THIS FEATURE UNTIL WE SEE MORE DEFINITION ON THE GFS.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND ON THURSDAY MAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
VERY WARM DAYS OF THE WEEK. THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD START TO
DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE
SHIFTING EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH. WE ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK BUT
MAY NEED TO ACCELERATE THE COOLING IF MODELS DURING THE DAY RUN
SHOW MORE ROBUST COOLING. SUNDAY, THE TRANSITIONAL DAY, COULD
TURN OUT TO BE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

CC



000
FXUS66 KMFR 261534
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
834 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST
OREGON WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES AND WESTERLY
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. MODELS  INDICATE THAT THE
THERMODYNAMICS, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD
SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTNING GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN ISOLATED WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORM AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA.

THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO
BECOME CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
NUDGING INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH MODELS FAVORING POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SIMILAR PATTERN FOR SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...MOVING INLAND AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THIS LOW
APPROACHES...THEN POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY. CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD MAY EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, INCLUDING AREAS WEST OF
THE CASCADES.



&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH SOME
IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST HAVE SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN EARLY
THIS MORNING, ALSO RESULTING IN AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION. SKIES
WILL CLEAR TO THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
RETURN TO THE COAST TONIGHT. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, THEN MODERATE WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. -BPN



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHILE A LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE MAIN EFFECT ON OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE MORE
WARMING ACROSS INLAND ZONES. A FEW SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG THE
LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS EAST NORTHEAST
INTO THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA OF EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY OVER
OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COUNTIES WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS NE INTO THE
MEDICINE LAKE AREA. HOWEVER THE NAM12 SHOWS ROBUST LIFTED INDEX
FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE
GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE. I HAVE INTRODUCED A
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE OVER THE CRATER LAKE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ON THIS FEATURE UNTIL WE SEE MORE DEFINITION ON THE GFS.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND ON THURSDAY MAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
VERY WARM DAYS OF THE WEEK. THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD START TO
DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE
SHIFTING EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH. WE ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK BUT
MAY NEED TO ACCELERATE THE COOLING IF MODELS DURING THE DAY RUN
SHOW MORE ROBUST COOLING. SUNDAY, THE TRANSITIONAL DAY, COULD
TURN OUT TO BE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KPDT 261530
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
830 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD AND BE OVER CENTRAL IDAHO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL PLACE MOST OF THE FORECAST CAST AREA UNDER AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
RESULTING IN SHOWERS TODAY AND OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD. CENTRAL OREGON WILL ESCAPE
THE SHOWERS AND SEE JUST SOME CLOUDS.




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OREGON BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SOUTHERN IDAHO BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THUS A SEASONALLY MILD, BUT UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER SOME OF OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION, WHILE ALSO ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT ALL OF OUR WASHINGTON ZONES AND
OUR EASTERN ZONES IN OREGON TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MANY OF OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME STABILIZATION IS EXPECTED FROM THE BASIN SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
OREGON. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, AND FROM THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS SOUTH TO GRANT COUNTY AND EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. 90

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION, BUT HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES FOR THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK FLAT
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REGION WITH ASSOCIATED SINKING AIR
PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY
THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER US WITH THE RIDGE AXIS HAVING MOVED EAST INTO
IDAHO, WHICH ALLOWS FLOW ALOFT TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH
ENABLES PACIFIC MOISTURE TO BEGIN ENTERING THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE
FLUX INTO THE FORECAST AREA INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL AS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD MARGINALLY
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY.  POLAN

AVIATION...12Z TAFS. FEW REMAINING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN LATE THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS 050-080. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR YKM DLS PSC PDT ALW. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR RDM BDN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  75  52  78  53 /  20  20  30  10
ALW  76  56  78  57 /  30  30  30  20
PSC  80  58  84  53 /  20  30  20  10
YKM  77  55  82  54 /  40  40  20  10
HRI  79  54  83  52 /  20  20  20  10
ELN  77  54  82  54 /  40  40  20  20
RDM  74  41  77  43 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  71  50  73  48 /  40  40  40  30
GCD  75  48  76  47 /  10  10  20  20
DLS  78  57  83  58 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/93/93



000
FXUS66 KPDT 261530
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
830 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD AND BE OVER CENTRAL IDAHO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL PLACE MOST OF THE FORECAST CAST AREA UNDER AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
RESULTING IN SHOWERS TODAY AND OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD. CENTRAL OREGON WILL ESCAPE
THE SHOWERS AND SEE JUST SOME CLOUDS.




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OREGON BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SOUTHERN IDAHO BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THUS A SEASONALLY MILD, BUT UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER SOME OF OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION, WHILE ALSO ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT ALL OF OUR WASHINGTON ZONES AND
OUR EASTERN ZONES IN OREGON TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MANY OF OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME STABILIZATION IS EXPECTED FROM THE BASIN SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
OREGON. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, AND FROM THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS SOUTH TO GRANT COUNTY AND EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. 90

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION, BUT HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES FOR THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK FLAT
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REGION WITH ASSOCIATED SINKING AIR
PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY
THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER US WITH THE RIDGE AXIS HAVING MOVED EAST INTO
IDAHO, WHICH ALLOWS FLOW ALOFT TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH
ENABLES PACIFIC MOISTURE TO BEGIN ENTERING THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE
FLUX INTO THE FORECAST AREA INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL AS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD MARGINALLY
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY.  POLAN

AVIATION...12Z TAFS. FEW REMAINING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN LATE THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS 050-080. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR YKM DLS PSC PDT ALW. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR RDM BDN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  75  52  78  53 /  20  20  30  10
ALW  76  56  78  57 /  30  30  30  20
PSC  80  58  84  53 /  20  30  20  10
YKM  77  55  82  54 /  40  40  20  10
HRI  79  54  83  52 /  20  20  20  10
ELN  77  54  82  54 /  40  40  20  20
RDM  74  41  77  43 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  71  50  73  48 /  40  40  40  30
GCD  75  48  76  47 /  10  10  20  20
DLS  78  57  83  58 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/93/93




000
FXUS66 KMFR 261048
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
348 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHILE A LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE MAIN EFFECT ON OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE MORE
WARMING ACROSS INLAND ZONES. A FEW SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG THE
LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS EAST NORTHEAST
INTO THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA OF EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY OVER
OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COUNTIES WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS NE INTO THE
MEDICINE LAKE AREA. HOWEVER THE NAM12 SHOWS ROBUST LIFTED INDEXFROM
CRATER LAKE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE GFS DOES
NOT SHOW THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE. I HAVE INTRODUCED A THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE OVER THE CRATER LAKE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
THIS FEATURE UNTIL WE SEE MORE DEFINITION ON THE GFS.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND ON THURSDAY MAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
VERY WARM DAYS OF THE WEEK. THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD START TO
DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE
SHIFTING EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH. WE ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK BUT
MAY NEED TO ACCELERATE THE COOLING IF MODELS DURING THE DAY RUN
SHOW MORE ROBUST COOLING. SUNDAY, THE TRANSITIONAL DAY, COULD
TURN OUT TO BE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH SOME
IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATER
TONIGHT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. SKIES WILL CLEAR TO
THE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, THEN MODERATE WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 261048
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
348 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHILE A LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE MAIN EFFECT ON OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE MORE
WARMING ACROSS INLAND ZONES. A FEW SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG THE
LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS EAST NORTHEAST
INTO THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA OF EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY OVER
OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COUNTIES WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS NE INTO THE
MEDICINE LAKE AREA. HOWEVER THE NAM12 SHOWS ROBUST LIFTED INDEXFROM
CRATER LAKE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE GFS DOES
NOT SHOW THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE. I HAVE INTRODUCED A THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE OVER THE CRATER LAKE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
THIS FEATURE UNTIL WE SEE MORE DEFINITION ON THE GFS.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND ON THURSDAY MAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
VERY WARM DAYS OF THE WEEK. THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD START TO
DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE
SHIFTING EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH. WE ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK BUT
MAY NEED TO ACCELERATE THE COOLING IF MODELS DURING THE DAY RUN
SHOW MORE ROBUST COOLING. SUNDAY, THE TRANSITIONAL DAY, COULD
TURN OUT TO BE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH SOME
IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATER
TONIGHT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. SKIES WILL CLEAR TO
THE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, THEN MODERATE WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BPN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 261048
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
348 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHILE A LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE MAIN EFFECT ON OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE MORE
WARMING ACROSS INLAND ZONES. A FEW SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG THE
LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS EAST NORTHEAST
INTO THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA OF EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY OVER
OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COUNTIES WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS NE INTO THE
MEDICINE LAKE AREA. HOWEVER THE NAM12 SHOWS ROBUST LIFTED INDEXFROM
CRATER LAKE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE GFS DOES
NOT SHOW THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE. I HAVE INTRODUCED A THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE OVER THE CRATER LAKE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
THIS FEATURE UNTIL WE SEE MORE DEFINITION ON THE GFS.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND ON THURSDAY MAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
VERY WARM DAYS OF THE WEEK. THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD START TO
DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE
SHIFTING EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH. WE ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK BUT
MAY NEED TO ACCELERATE THE COOLING IF MODELS DURING THE DAY RUN
SHOW MORE ROBUST COOLING. SUNDAY, THE TRANSITIONAL DAY, COULD
TURN OUT TO BE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH SOME
IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATER
TONIGHT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. SKIES WILL CLEAR TO
THE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, THEN MODERATE WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BPN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 261048
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
348 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHILE A LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE MAIN EFFECT ON OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE MORE
WARMING ACROSS INLAND ZONES. A FEW SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG THE
LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS EAST NORTHEAST
INTO THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA OF EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY OVER
OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COUNTIES WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS NE INTO THE
MEDICINE LAKE AREA. HOWEVER THE NAM12 SHOWS ROBUST LIFTED INDEXFROM
CRATER LAKE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE GFS DOES
NOT SHOW THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE. I HAVE INTRODUCED A THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE OVER THE CRATER LAKE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
THIS FEATURE UNTIL WE SEE MORE DEFINITION ON THE GFS.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND ON THURSDAY MAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
VERY WARM DAYS OF THE WEEK. THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD START TO
DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE
SHIFTING EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH. WE ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK BUT
MAY NEED TO ACCELERATE THE COOLING IF MODELS DURING THE DAY RUN
SHOW MORE ROBUST COOLING. SUNDAY, THE TRANSITIONAL DAY, COULD
TURN OUT TO BE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH SOME
IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATER
TONIGHT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. SKIES WILL CLEAR TO
THE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, THEN MODERATE WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BPN




000
FXUS66 KPDT 261000
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OREGON BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SOUTHERN IDAHO BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THUS A SEASONALLY MILD, BUT UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER SOME OF OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION, WHILE ALSO ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT ALL OF OUR WASHINGTON ZONES AND
OUR EASTERN ZONES IN OREGON TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MANY OF OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME STABILIZATION IS EXPECTED FROM THE BASIN SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
OREGON. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, AND FROM THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS SOUTH TO GRANT COUNTY AND EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. 90

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION, BUT HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES FOR THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK FLAT
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REGION WITH ASSOCIATED SINKING AIR
PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY
THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER US WITH THE RIDGE AXIS HAVING MOVED EAST INTO
IDAHO, WHICH ALLOWS FLOW ALOFT TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH
ENABLES PACIFIC MOISTURE TO BEGIN ENTERING THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE
FLUX INTO THE FORECAST AREA INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL AS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD MARGINALLY
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS. FEW REMAINING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN LATE THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS 050-080. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR YKM DLS PSC PDT ALW. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR RDM BDN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  51  78  53 /  20  20  30  10
ALW  76  56  78  57 /  30  30  30  20
PSC  80  54  84  53 /  20  20  20  10
YKM  77  54  82  54 /  40  30  20  10
HRI  80  52  83  52 /  20  20  20  10
ELN  76  52  82  54 /  40  30  20  20
RDM  74  41  77  43 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  72  49  73  48 /  40  30  40  30
GCD  75  46  76  47 /  10  10  20  20
DLS  78  56  83  58 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/99



000
FXUS66 KPDT 261000
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OREGON BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SOUTHERN IDAHO BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THUS A SEASONALLY MILD, BUT UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER SOME OF OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION, WHILE ALSO ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT ALL OF OUR WASHINGTON ZONES AND
OUR EASTERN ZONES IN OREGON TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MANY OF OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME STABILIZATION IS EXPECTED FROM THE BASIN SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
OREGON. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, AND FROM THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS SOUTH TO GRANT COUNTY AND EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. 90

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION, BUT HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES FOR THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK FLAT
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REGION WITH ASSOCIATED SINKING AIR
PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY
THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER US WITH THE RIDGE AXIS HAVING MOVED EAST INTO
IDAHO, WHICH ALLOWS FLOW ALOFT TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH
ENABLES PACIFIC MOISTURE TO BEGIN ENTERING THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE
FLUX INTO THE FORECAST AREA INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL AS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD MARGINALLY
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS. FEW REMAINING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN LATE THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS 050-080. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR YKM DLS PSC PDT ALW. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR RDM BDN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  51  78  53 /  20  20  30  10
ALW  76  56  78  57 /  30  30  30  20
PSC  80  54  84  53 /  20  20  20  10
YKM  77  54  82  54 /  40  30  20  10
HRI  80  52  83  52 /  20  20  20  10
ELN  76  52  82  54 /  40  30  20  20
RDM  74  41  77  43 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  72  49  73  48 /  40  30  40  30
GCD  75  46  76  47 /  10  10  20  20
DLS  78  56  83  58 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/99



000
FXUS66 KPDT 261000
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OREGON BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SOUTHERN IDAHO BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THUS A SEASONALLY MILD, BUT UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER SOME OF OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION, WHILE ALSO ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT ALL OF OUR WASHINGTON ZONES AND
OUR EASTERN ZONES IN OREGON TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MANY OF OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME STABILIZATION IS EXPECTED FROM THE BASIN SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
OREGON. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, AND FROM THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS SOUTH TO GRANT COUNTY AND EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. 90

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION, BUT HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES FOR THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK FLAT
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REGION WITH ASSOCIATED SINKING AIR
PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY
THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER US WITH THE RIDGE AXIS HAVING MOVED EAST INTO
IDAHO, WHICH ALLOWS FLOW ALOFT TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH
ENABLES PACIFIC MOISTURE TO BEGIN ENTERING THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE
FLUX INTO THE FORECAST AREA INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL AS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD MARGINALLY
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS. FEW REMAINING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN LATE THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS 050-080. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR YKM DLS PSC PDT ALW. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR RDM BDN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  51  78  53 /  20  20  30  10
ALW  76  56  78  57 /  30  30  30  20
PSC  80  54  84  53 /  20  20  20  10
YKM  77  54  82  54 /  40  30  20  10
HRI  80  52  83  52 /  20  20  20  10
ELN  76  52  82  54 /  40  30  20  20
RDM  74  41  77  43 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  72  49  73  48 /  40  30  40  30
GCD  75  46  76  47 /  10  10  20  20
DLS  78  56  83  58 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/99




000
FXUS65 KBOI 260942
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
342 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN
EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
REACH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTH OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TODAY.
THEREFORE...WE EXPECT A REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN THE OWYHEES AND ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
SMALL HAIL. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...EXCEPT
IN HARNEY COUNTY WHERE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND ALLOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO LOW 90S /10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/ IN THE VALLEYS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY RECORD HIGHS AS RECORDS AT BOISE NOW IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. MODELS AGREE THAT A VIGOROUS TROUGH
/AND COLD FRONT/ WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
SOUTH-EAST OF A LINE FROM KBNO-KBKE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS....BECOMING WESTERLY 5-15KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
35KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 260942
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
342 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN
EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
REACH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTH OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TODAY.
THEREFORE...WE EXPECT A REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN THE OWYHEES AND ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
SMALL HAIL. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...EXCEPT
IN HARNEY COUNTY WHERE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND ALLOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO LOW 90S /10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/ IN THE VALLEYS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY RECORD HIGHS AS RECORDS AT BOISE NOW IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. MODELS AGREE THAT A VIGOROUS TROUGH
/AND COLD FRONT/ WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
SOUTH-EAST OF A LINE FROM KBNO-KBKE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS....BECOMING WESTERLY 5-15KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
35KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 260942
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
342 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN
EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
REACH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTH OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TODAY.
THEREFORE...WE EXPECT A REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN THE OWYHEES AND ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
SMALL HAIL. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...EXCEPT
IN HARNEY COUNTY WHERE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND ALLOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO LOW 90S /10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/ IN THE VALLEYS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY RECORD HIGHS AS RECORDS AT BOISE NOW IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. MODELS AGREE THAT A VIGOROUS TROUGH
/AND COLD FRONT/ WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
SOUTH-EAST OF A LINE FROM KBNO-KBKE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS....BECOMING WESTERLY 5-15KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
35KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 260942
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
342 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN
EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
REACH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTH OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TODAY.
THEREFORE...WE EXPECT A REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN THE OWYHEES AND ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
SMALL HAIL. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...EXCEPT
IN HARNEY COUNTY WHERE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND ALLOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO LOW 90S /10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/ IN THE VALLEYS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY RECORD HIGHS AS RECORDS AT BOISE NOW IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. MODELS AGREE THAT A VIGOROUS TROUGH
/AND COLD FRONT/ WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
SOUTH-EAST OF A LINE FROM KBNO-KBKE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS....BECOMING WESTERLY 5-15KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
35KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 260942
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
342 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN
EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
REACH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTH OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TODAY.
THEREFORE...WE EXPECT A REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN THE OWYHEES AND ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
SMALL HAIL. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...EXCEPT
IN HARNEY COUNTY WHERE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND ALLOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO LOW 90S /10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/ IN THE VALLEYS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY RECORD HIGHS AS RECORDS AT BOISE NOW IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. MODELS AGREE THAT A VIGOROUS TROUGH
/AND COLD FRONT/ WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
SOUTH-EAST OF A LINE FROM KBNO-KBKE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS....BECOMING WESTERLY 5-15KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
35KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 260942
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
342 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN
EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
REACH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTH OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TODAY.
THEREFORE...WE EXPECT A REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN THE OWYHEES AND ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
SMALL HAIL. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...EXCEPT
IN HARNEY COUNTY WHERE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND ALLOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO LOW 90S /10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/ IN THE VALLEYS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY RECORD HIGHS AS RECORDS AT BOISE NOW IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. MODELS AGREE THAT A VIGOROUS TROUGH
/AND COLD FRONT/ WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
SOUTH-EAST OF A LINE FROM KBNO-KBKE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS....BECOMING WESTERLY 5-15KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
35KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 260942
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
342 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN
EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
REACH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTH OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TODAY.
THEREFORE...WE EXPECT A REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN THE OWYHEES AND ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
SMALL HAIL. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...EXCEPT
IN HARNEY COUNTY WHERE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND ALLOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO LOW 90S /10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/ IN THE VALLEYS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY RECORD HIGHS AS RECORDS AT BOISE NOW IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. MODELS AGREE THAT A VIGOROUS TROUGH
/AND COLD FRONT/ WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
SOUTH-EAST OF A LINE FROM KBNO-KBKE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS....BECOMING WESTERLY 5-15KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
35KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 260942
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
342 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN
EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
REACH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTH OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TODAY.
THEREFORE...WE EXPECT A REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN THE OWYHEES AND ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
SMALL HAIL. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...EXCEPT
IN HARNEY COUNTY WHERE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND ALLOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO LOW 90S /10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/ IN THE VALLEYS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY RECORD HIGHS AS RECORDS AT BOISE NOW IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. MODELS AGREE THAT A VIGOROUS TROUGH
/AND COLD FRONT/ WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
SOUTH-EAST OF A LINE FROM KBNO-KBKE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS....BECOMING WESTERLY 5-15KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
35KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS66 KPQR 260940
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
240 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL OW PRES SYSTEM THAT WAS OVER EASTERN WA
EARLY TUE MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE INTO IDAHO WED. THE LOW WILL
THEN MOVE OFF TO THE E AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM OFF THE PACIFIC. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN PROGRESSIVELY
FEWER CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES OVER EASTERN WA
EXPECTED TO WOBBLE AROUND NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LANDING IN IDAHO WED
BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE E THU. MARINE CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED ALONG
THE COAST AND INTO THE N VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO
SPREAD FURTHER DOWN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING AS A NW
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...THEN CLOUDS BREAKING UP AGAIN FROM S TO N
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW CLIPS THE NE CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE MODELS SHOW MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT FURTHER E WED AND THU WILL SEE THE
ONSHORE FLOW WEAKEN MORE. AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE WILL SEE
PROGRESSIVELY LESS OF THE MARINE CLOUDS PUSHING INLAND...AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING EACH DAY. BY THU H8 TEMPS IN MODELS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 15 TO 16 DEG C...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO INLAND VALLEY
TEMPS TOPPING 80 AGAIN. WRAP AROUND FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WED AND THU...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THERE EACH AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGE OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE BRINING MARINE CLOUDS INLAND OVERNIGHT...BUT
STRATUS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR OUT BY MIDDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES INLAND TO REACH INTO THE 70S OR LOW 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CASCADES COULD SEE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR EVEN POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A
LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL DISRUPT THE
PERSISTENT PATTERN. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER. BECAUSE OF HOW FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THIS SYSTEM
IS...TIMING COULD VERY WELL CHANGE AS WE APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. -
MCCOY &&

.AVIATION...MARINE CLOUDS HAVE RETURNED ACROSS THE NORTH COAST AND
NORTH INTERIOR BUT ARE STRUGGLING TO FORM INLAND SOUTH OF KUAO.
EXPECT THIS IS DUE TO VERY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS INLAND THUS
PREVENTING MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION UNLIKE THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
THUS HAVE SWITCHED GEARS FOR KSLE AND KEUG WITH NOW AN
EXPECTATION OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TO EVENTUALLY FORM A MVFR DECK
AROUND 015 AGL. MAY GET A SIMILAR DECK FORMING AT THE NORTHERN
INLAND TERMINALS BUT FEEL MORE LIKE THE HIGHER END MVFR DECK
AROUND 025 UP TO A VFR DECK NEAR 035 WILL PREVAIL. IN BOTH
CASES...MODELS INDICATE THAT ONCE THE INLAND DECK RETREATS NORTH
ANS WEST BETWEEN 19 TO 22Z TODAY...LIGHTER GRADIENTS AND A MORE
GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MORE OF A SHALLOWER CLOUD DECK
IN PLAY. STILL EXPECT THE COAST WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TODAY BUT
COULD LIFT TO AT LEAST HIGHER END MVFR IF NOT LOW END VFR BEFORE
CLOUDS DROP BACK DOWN OVERNIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS WILL REMAIN 025 TO 035 BEFORE
RETREATING NORTH AND WEST AROUND MID-DAY. CLOUDS MAY CLEAR THE
TERMINAL AREA FOR 21-03Z BUT HAVE MIXED CONFIDENCE AND NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR FULL VISUAL APPROACHES IN THE TAF JUST YET. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...STILL NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE A MORE DOMINANT PAIR OF SWELL TRAINS ARRIVE FROM WELL
OFF TO THE WEST AND THE DISTANT SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY STILL HAVE
SOME FRESH SWELL FROM WINDS OFF THE WESTERN BC COAST TO COMBINE
AND PRODUCE SOMEWHAT CHOPPY AND CONFUSED SEAS. ON THE UP
SIDE...DOMINANT SEAS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY COMBINE TO AROUND 7 FT AT
TIMES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND THUS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. OVERALL WINDS WILL STAY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH
ONLY BRIEF AND LOCALIZED GUSTS PUSHING OVER 20 KTS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WATERS. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 260940
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
240 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL OW PRES SYSTEM THAT WAS OVER EASTERN WA
EARLY TUE MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE INTO IDAHO WED. THE LOW WILL
THEN MOVE OFF TO THE E AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM OFF THE PACIFIC. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN PROGRESSIVELY
FEWER CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES OVER EASTERN WA
EXPECTED TO WOBBLE AROUND NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LANDING IN IDAHO WED
BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE E THU. MARINE CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED ALONG
THE COAST AND INTO THE N VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO
SPREAD FURTHER DOWN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING AS A NW
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...THEN CLOUDS BREAKING UP AGAIN FROM S TO N
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW CLIPS THE NE CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE MODELS SHOW MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT FURTHER E WED AND THU WILL SEE THE
ONSHORE FLOW WEAKEN MORE. AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE WILL SEE
PROGRESSIVELY LESS OF THE MARINE CLOUDS PUSHING INLAND...AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING EACH DAY. BY THU H8 TEMPS IN MODELS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 15 TO 16 DEG C...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO INLAND VALLEY
TEMPS TOPPING 80 AGAIN. WRAP AROUND FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WED AND THU...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THERE EACH AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGE OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE BRINING MARINE CLOUDS INLAND OVERNIGHT...BUT
STRATUS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR OUT BY MIDDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES INLAND TO REACH INTO THE 70S OR LOW 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CASCADES COULD SEE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR EVEN POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A
LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL DISRUPT THE
PERSISTENT PATTERN. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER. BECAUSE OF HOW FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THIS SYSTEM
IS...TIMING COULD VERY WELL CHANGE AS WE APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. -
MCCOY &&

.AVIATION...MARINE CLOUDS HAVE RETURNED ACROSS THE NORTH COAST AND
NORTH INTERIOR BUT ARE STRUGGLING TO FORM INLAND SOUTH OF KUAO.
EXPECT THIS IS DUE TO VERY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS INLAND THUS
PREVENTING MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION UNLIKE THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
THUS HAVE SWITCHED GEARS FOR KSLE AND KEUG WITH NOW AN
EXPECTATION OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TO EVENTUALLY FORM A MVFR DECK
AROUND 015 AGL. MAY GET A SIMILAR DECK FORMING AT THE NORTHERN
INLAND TERMINALS BUT FEEL MORE LIKE THE HIGHER END MVFR DECK
AROUND 025 UP TO A VFR DECK NEAR 035 WILL PREVAIL. IN BOTH
CASES...MODELS INDICATE THAT ONCE THE INLAND DECK RETREATS NORTH
ANS WEST BETWEEN 19 TO 22Z TODAY...LIGHTER GRADIENTS AND A MORE
GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MORE OF A SHALLOWER CLOUD DECK
IN PLAY. STILL EXPECT THE COAST WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TODAY BUT
COULD LIFT TO AT LEAST HIGHER END MVFR IF NOT LOW END VFR BEFORE
CLOUDS DROP BACK DOWN OVERNIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS WILL REMAIN 025 TO 035 BEFORE
RETREATING NORTH AND WEST AROUND MID-DAY. CLOUDS MAY CLEAR THE
TERMINAL AREA FOR 21-03Z BUT HAVE MIXED CONFIDENCE AND NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR FULL VISUAL APPROACHES IN THE TAF JUST YET. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...STILL NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE A MORE DOMINANT PAIR OF SWELL TRAINS ARRIVE FROM WELL
OFF TO THE WEST AND THE DISTANT SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY STILL HAVE
SOME FRESH SWELL FROM WINDS OFF THE WESTERN BC COAST TO COMBINE
AND PRODUCE SOMEWHAT CHOPPY AND CONFUSED SEAS. ON THE UP
SIDE...DOMINANT SEAS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY COMBINE TO AROUND 7 FT AT
TIMES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND THUS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. OVERALL WINDS WILL STAY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH
ONLY BRIEF AND LOCALIZED GUSTS PUSHING OVER 20 KTS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WATERS. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 260526
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN
THIS EVENING...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON.
THESE SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE APPEARS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY...ONLY MOVING TO SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOW REMAINS UNSTABLE AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MAIN AREAS IMPACTED
WILL BE FROM THE WASHINGTON CASCADES ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN TO
THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER
IDAHO. UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES ACROSS
THE BASIN INTO NORTHEAST OREGON AGAIN. 94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. FEW REMAINING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN LATE THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS 050-080. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR YKM DLS PSC PDT ALW. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR RDM BDN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 94

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON BORDER WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON TODAY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
CASCADE GAPS, COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER KITTITAS VALLEY. THIS
FLOW IS RELATIVELY STABLE, SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED THIS EVENING. SOME BUILDUPS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES, AND GRANT COUNTY TO THE BLUES AND WALLOWA
COUNTY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SLOPES AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS (MAINLY
THE BLUES EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY). A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON. AS THE LOW DRIFTS ALONG THE WA/OR/ID BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEAST OREGON WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. A WEAK WAVE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND ENHANCE SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON, THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, AND NORTHEAST OREGON. WEDNESDAY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
DAYTIME HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AS WELL. THURSDAY WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND OREGON BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE
BLUES AND WALLOWAS. COONFIELD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL
PROVIDE SPLIT FLOW TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  THIS
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SATURDAY AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS PROGRESS EAST.  ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBILITIES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AND THE
EAGLE CAPS.  SATURDAY WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY EVENING. WEBER

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THERE REMAINS SLIGHT TIMING AND POSITION DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS TROUGH...WITH THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
STILL DROPPING THE FEATURE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. WITH
THESE DIFFERENCES IN MIND DECIDED TO JUST GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD PLACE THE CWA IN THE FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT JET AT THE 300MB LEVEL BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BEFORE
COOLING OFF CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  75  51  77 /  20  20  20  20
ALW  56  77  57  79 /  20  30  20  30
PSC  54  80  55  84 /  20  20  20  20
YKM  53  77  54  82 /  20  30  30  20
HRI  52  80  53  82 /  20  10  20  20
ELN  54  76  53  81 /  20  40  30  20
RDM  39  76  42  76 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  46  71  48  71 /  20  40  20  30
GCD  44  75  45  73 /  10  10  10  30
DLS  54  77  56  83 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/



000
FXUS66 KPDT 260526
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN
THIS EVENING...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON.
THESE SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE APPEARS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY...ONLY MOVING TO SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOW REMAINS UNSTABLE AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MAIN AREAS IMPACTED
WILL BE FROM THE WASHINGTON CASCADES ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN TO
THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER
IDAHO. UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES ACROSS
THE BASIN INTO NORTHEAST OREGON AGAIN. 94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. FEW REMAINING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN LATE THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS 050-080. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR YKM DLS PSC PDT ALW. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR RDM BDN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 94

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON BORDER WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON TODAY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
CASCADE GAPS, COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER KITTITAS VALLEY. THIS
FLOW IS RELATIVELY STABLE, SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED THIS EVENING. SOME BUILDUPS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES, AND GRANT COUNTY TO THE BLUES AND WALLOWA
COUNTY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SLOPES AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS (MAINLY
THE BLUES EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY). A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON. AS THE LOW DRIFTS ALONG THE WA/OR/ID BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEAST OREGON WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. A WEAK WAVE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND ENHANCE SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON, THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, AND NORTHEAST OREGON. WEDNESDAY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
DAYTIME HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AS WELL. THURSDAY WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND OREGON BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE
BLUES AND WALLOWAS. COONFIELD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL
PROVIDE SPLIT FLOW TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  THIS
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SATURDAY AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS PROGRESS EAST.  ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBILITIES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AND THE
EAGLE CAPS.  SATURDAY WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY EVENING. WEBER

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THERE REMAINS SLIGHT TIMING AND POSITION DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS TROUGH...WITH THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
STILL DROPPING THE FEATURE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. WITH
THESE DIFFERENCES IN MIND DECIDED TO JUST GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD PLACE THE CWA IN THE FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT JET AT THE 300MB LEVEL BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BEFORE
COOLING OFF CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  75  51  77 /  20  20  20  20
ALW  56  77  57  79 /  20  30  20  30
PSC  54  80  55  84 /  20  20  20  20
YKM  53  77  54  82 /  20  30  30  20
HRI  52  80  53  82 /  20  10  20  20
ELN  54  76  53  81 /  20  40  30  20
RDM  39  76  42  76 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  46  71  48  71 /  20  40  20  30
GCD  44  75  45  73 /  10  10  10  30
DLS  54  77  56  83 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/



000
FXUS66 KPDT 260526
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN
THIS EVENING...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON.
THESE SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE APPEARS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY...ONLY MOVING TO SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOW REMAINS UNSTABLE AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MAIN AREAS IMPACTED
WILL BE FROM THE WASHINGTON CASCADES ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN TO
THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER
IDAHO. UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES ACROSS
THE BASIN INTO NORTHEAST OREGON AGAIN. 94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. FEW REMAINING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN LATE THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS 050-080. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR YKM DLS PSC PDT ALW. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR RDM BDN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 94

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON BORDER WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON TODAY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
CASCADE GAPS, COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER KITTITAS VALLEY. THIS
FLOW IS RELATIVELY STABLE, SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED THIS EVENING. SOME BUILDUPS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES, AND GRANT COUNTY TO THE BLUES AND WALLOWA
COUNTY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SLOPES AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS (MAINLY
THE BLUES EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY). A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON. AS THE LOW DRIFTS ALONG THE WA/OR/ID BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEAST OREGON WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. A WEAK WAVE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND ENHANCE SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON, THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, AND NORTHEAST OREGON. WEDNESDAY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
DAYTIME HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AS WELL. THURSDAY WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND OREGON BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE
BLUES AND WALLOWAS. COONFIELD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL
PROVIDE SPLIT FLOW TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  THIS
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SATURDAY AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS PROGRESS EAST.  ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBILITIES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AND THE
EAGLE CAPS.  SATURDAY WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY EVENING. WEBER

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THERE REMAINS SLIGHT TIMING AND POSITION DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS TROUGH...WITH THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
STILL DROPPING THE FEATURE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. WITH
THESE DIFFERENCES IN MIND DECIDED TO JUST GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD PLACE THE CWA IN THE FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT JET AT THE 300MB LEVEL BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BEFORE
COOLING OFF CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  75  51  77 /  20  20  20  20
ALW  56  77  57  79 /  20  30  20  30
PSC  54  80  55  84 /  20  20  20  20
YKM  53  77  54  82 /  20  30  30  20
HRI  52  80  53  82 /  20  10  20  20
ELN  54  76  53  81 /  20  40  30  20
RDM  39  76  42  76 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  46  71  48  71 /  20  40  20  30
GCD  44  75  45  73 /  10  10  10  30
DLS  54  77  56  83 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/



000
FXUS66 KPDT 260526
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN
THIS EVENING...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON.
THESE SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE APPEARS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY...ONLY MOVING TO SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOW REMAINS UNSTABLE AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MAIN AREAS IMPACTED
WILL BE FROM THE WASHINGTON CASCADES ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN TO
THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER
IDAHO. UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES ACROSS
THE BASIN INTO NORTHEAST OREGON AGAIN. 94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. FEW REMAINING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN LATE THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS 050-080. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR YKM DLS PSC PDT ALW. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR RDM BDN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 94

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON BORDER WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON TODAY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
CASCADE GAPS, COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER KITTITAS VALLEY. THIS
FLOW IS RELATIVELY STABLE, SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED THIS EVENING. SOME BUILDUPS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES, AND GRANT COUNTY TO THE BLUES AND WALLOWA
COUNTY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SLOPES AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS (MAINLY
THE BLUES EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY). A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON. AS THE LOW DRIFTS ALONG THE WA/OR/ID BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEAST OREGON WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. A WEAK WAVE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND ENHANCE SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON, THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, AND NORTHEAST OREGON. WEDNESDAY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
DAYTIME HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AS WELL. THURSDAY WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND OREGON BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE
BLUES AND WALLOWAS. COONFIELD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL
PROVIDE SPLIT FLOW TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  THIS
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SATURDAY AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS PROGRESS EAST.  ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBILITIES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AND THE
EAGLE CAPS.  SATURDAY WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY EVENING. WEBER

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THERE REMAINS SLIGHT TIMING AND POSITION DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS TROUGH...WITH THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
STILL DROPPING THE FEATURE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. WITH
THESE DIFFERENCES IN MIND DECIDED TO JUST GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD PLACE THE CWA IN THE FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT JET AT THE 300MB LEVEL BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BEFORE
COOLING OFF CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  75  51  77 /  20  20  20  20
ALW  56  77  57  79 /  20  30  20  30
PSC  54  80  55  84 /  20  20  20  20
YKM  53  77  54  82 /  20  30  30  20
HRI  52  80  53  82 /  20  10  20  20
ELN  54  76  53  81 /  20  40  30  20
RDM  39  76  42  76 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  46  71  48  71 /  20  40  20  30
GCD  44  75  45  73 /  10  10  10  30
DLS  54  77  56  83 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/



000
FXUS66 KPDT 260526
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN
THIS EVENING...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON.
THESE SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE APPEARS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY...ONLY MOVING TO SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOW REMAINS UNSTABLE AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MAIN AREAS IMPACTED
WILL BE FROM THE WASHINGTON CASCADES ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN TO
THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER
IDAHO. UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES ACROSS
THE BASIN INTO NORTHEAST OREGON AGAIN. 94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. FEW REMAINING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN LATE THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS 050-080. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR YKM DLS PSC PDT ALW. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR RDM BDN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 94

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON BORDER WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON TODAY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
CASCADE GAPS, COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER KITTITAS VALLEY. THIS
FLOW IS RELATIVELY STABLE, SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED THIS EVENING. SOME BUILDUPS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES, AND GRANT COUNTY TO THE BLUES AND WALLOWA
COUNTY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SLOPES AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS (MAINLY
THE BLUES EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY). A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON. AS THE LOW DRIFTS ALONG THE WA/OR/ID BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEAST OREGON WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. A WEAK WAVE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND ENHANCE SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON, THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, AND NORTHEAST OREGON. WEDNESDAY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
DAYTIME HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AS WELL. THURSDAY WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND OREGON BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE
BLUES AND WALLOWAS. COONFIELD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL
PROVIDE SPLIT FLOW TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  THIS
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SATURDAY AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS PROGRESS EAST.  ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBILITIES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AND THE
EAGLE CAPS.  SATURDAY WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY EVENING. WEBER

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THERE REMAINS SLIGHT TIMING AND POSITION DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS TROUGH...WITH THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
STILL DROPPING THE FEATURE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. WITH
THESE DIFFERENCES IN MIND DECIDED TO JUST GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD PLACE THE CWA IN THE FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT JET AT THE 300MB LEVEL BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BEFORE
COOLING OFF CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  75  51  77 /  20  20  20  20
ALW  56  77  57  79 /  20  30  20  30
PSC  54  80  55  84 /  20  20  20  20
YKM  53  77  54  82 /  20  30  30  20
HRI  52  80  53  82 /  20  10  20  20
ELN  54  76  53  81 /  20  40  30  20
RDM  39  76  42  76 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  46  71  48  71 /  20  40  20  30
GCD  44  75  45  73 /  10  10  10  30
DLS  54  77  56  83 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/



000
FXUS66 KPDT 260526
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN
THIS EVENING...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON.
THESE SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE APPEARS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY...ONLY MOVING TO SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOW REMAINS UNSTABLE AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MAIN AREAS IMPACTED
WILL BE FROM THE WASHINGTON CASCADES ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN TO
THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER
IDAHO. UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES ACROSS
THE BASIN INTO NORTHEAST OREGON AGAIN. 94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. FEW REMAINING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN LATE THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS 050-080. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR YKM DLS PSC PDT ALW. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR RDM BDN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 94

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON BORDER WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON TODAY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
CASCADE GAPS, COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER KITTITAS VALLEY. THIS
FLOW IS RELATIVELY STABLE, SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED THIS EVENING. SOME BUILDUPS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES, AND GRANT COUNTY TO THE BLUES AND WALLOWA
COUNTY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SLOPES AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS (MAINLY
THE BLUES EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY). A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON. AS THE LOW DRIFTS ALONG THE WA/OR/ID BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEAST OREGON WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. A WEAK WAVE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND ENHANCE SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON, THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, AND NORTHEAST OREGON. WEDNESDAY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
DAYTIME HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AS WELL. THURSDAY WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND OREGON BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE
BLUES AND WALLOWAS. COONFIELD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL
PROVIDE SPLIT FLOW TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  THIS
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SATURDAY AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS PROGRESS EAST.  ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBILITIES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AND THE
EAGLE CAPS.  SATURDAY WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY EVENING. WEBER

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THERE REMAINS SLIGHT TIMING AND POSITION DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS TROUGH...WITH THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
STILL DROPPING THE FEATURE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. WITH
THESE DIFFERENCES IN MIND DECIDED TO JUST GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD PLACE THE CWA IN THE FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT JET AT THE 300MB LEVEL BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BEFORE
COOLING OFF CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  75  51  77 /  20  20  20  20
ALW  56  77  57  79 /  20  30  20  30
PSC  54  80  55  84 /  20  20  20  20
YKM  53  77  54  82 /  20  30  30  20
HRI  52  80  53  82 /  20  10  20  20
ELN  54  76  53  81 /  20  40  30  20
RDM  39  76  42  76 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  46  71  48  71 /  20  40  20  30
GCD  44  75  45  73 /  10  10  10  30
DLS  54  77  56  83 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/




000
FXUS66 KPQR 260340
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
840 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN
WASHINGTON TODAY. MODERATE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE COASTAL DRIZZLE GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH. THERE IS A THREAT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG CREST OF THE S WASHINGTON
CASCADES TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT INTO
IDAHO LATE TUE INTO WED...ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO APPROACH THE PAC NW.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY
BEGINNING WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN FEWER CLOUDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADE CREST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A RETURN TO THE MARINE LAYER AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING FURTHER TOWARDS THE EASTERN WASHINGTON/
IDAHO BORDER THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OFF THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING...A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ITS NOT LOOKING AS LIKELY ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CREST OF THE SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON
CASCADES TONIGHT...SO I TOOK OUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. AFTER SOME DECENT CLOUD BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND NW OREGON INLAND
VALLEYS...MARINE STRATUS IS ALREADY STARTING TO REDEVELOP EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS VALID.../27

EXPECT TUE TO BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS
FURTHER EASTWARD AND THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. BASED ON THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF MARINE
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS JUST OFFSHORE THAT SHOULD PUSH INLAND TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. LIKE TODAY...EXPECT THE CLOUDS AND PATCHY COAST AND
COAST RANGE DRIZZLE TO BE AROUND FOR THE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY
BURN OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER
MAY BE A BIT MORE SHALLOW...SO THE CLOUDS MAY BURN OFF JUST AN HOUR
OR TWO FASTER THAN TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. THE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG THE S WA
CASCADES...SO WILL KEEP A THUNDER THREAT IN THE FCST NEAR THE CREST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

BY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE FURTHER EAST INTO IDAHO. THIS WILL
ALLOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO PUSH TOWARD THE PAC NW...RESULTING IN
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND AN EVEN SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.
EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE A MORNING MARINE STRATUS PUSH WED
MORNING...BUT THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS. FCST HIGHS OVER THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS ARE INTO THE MID 70S. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADE CREST WED...AND WITH THE
700 MB WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD TRY
TO RIDE ALONG THE CREST INSTEAD OF DRIFTING EASTWARD.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST ON THU. EXPECT A
WEAKER MARINE PUSH THU MORNING...AND MOST OF THE FCST AREA
SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 80 FOR THE MANY INTERIOR LOWLAND
LOCATIONS...WITH IS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. PYLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE BRINING MARINE
CLOUDS INLAND OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR
OUT BY MIDDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES INLAND TO REACH INTO THE 70S OR
LOW 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE CASCADES COULD SEE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR EVEN POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WHICH WILL DISRUPT THE PERSISTENT PATTERN. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL LIKELY SEE A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. BECAUSE OF HOW FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD THIS SYSTEM IS...TIMING COULD VERY WELL CHANGE AS WE APPROACH
THIS WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MARINE CLOUDS CLEARED MOST INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST AND NORTH OF KUAO...BUT ARE ALREADY RETURNING THIS EVENING.
EXPECT A SIMILAR REPEAT OF LAST 24 HOURS WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ON THE COAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING...THEN TRENDING TOWARD HIGH MVFR OR LOW
VFR TUE AFTERNOON. INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO FILL IN WITH CIGS
AROUND 2500 TO 3500 FEET BUT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL MID TO LATE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOW VFR CIGS AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET IN THE
AREA THROUGH 08Z TUE THEN LOWER TO AROUND 2500 FEET AROUND 08Z TO
10Z TUE.  EXPECT CIGS TO AGAIN LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY GOING TO SCATTERED CLOUDS. MH PT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WITH LOWER PRESSURE WELL INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AT TIMES. MIXED SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK...WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
TIMES DUE TO A FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL MIXED WITH A LONGER PERIOD
MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 260340
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
840 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN
WASHINGTON TODAY. MODERATE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE COASTAL DRIZZLE GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH. THERE IS A THREAT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG CREST OF THE S WASHINGTON
CASCADES TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT INTO
IDAHO LATE TUE INTO WED...ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO APPROACH THE PAC NW.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY
BEGINNING WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN FEWER CLOUDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADE CREST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A RETURN TO THE MARINE LAYER AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING FURTHER TOWARDS THE EASTERN WASHINGTON/
IDAHO BORDER THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OFF THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING...A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ITS NOT LOOKING AS LIKELY ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CREST OF THE SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON
CASCADES TONIGHT...SO I TOOK OUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. AFTER SOME DECENT CLOUD BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND NW OREGON INLAND
VALLEYS...MARINE STRATUS IS ALREADY STARTING TO REDEVELOP EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS VALID.../27

EXPECT TUE TO BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS
FURTHER EASTWARD AND THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. BASED ON THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF MARINE
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS JUST OFFSHORE THAT SHOULD PUSH INLAND TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. LIKE TODAY...EXPECT THE CLOUDS AND PATCHY COAST AND
COAST RANGE DRIZZLE TO BE AROUND FOR THE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY
BURN OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER
MAY BE A BIT MORE SHALLOW...SO THE CLOUDS MAY BURN OFF JUST AN HOUR
OR TWO FASTER THAN TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. THE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG THE S WA
CASCADES...SO WILL KEEP A THUNDER THREAT IN THE FCST NEAR THE CREST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

BY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE FURTHER EAST INTO IDAHO. THIS WILL
ALLOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO PUSH TOWARD THE PAC NW...RESULTING IN
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND AN EVEN SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.
EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE A MORNING MARINE STRATUS PUSH WED
MORNING...BUT THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS. FCST HIGHS OVER THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS ARE INTO THE MID 70S. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADE CREST WED...AND WITH THE
700 MB WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD TRY
TO RIDE ALONG THE CREST INSTEAD OF DRIFTING EASTWARD.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST ON THU. EXPECT A
WEAKER MARINE PUSH THU MORNING...AND MOST OF THE FCST AREA
SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 80 FOR THE MANY INTERIOR LOWLAND
LOCATIONS...WITH IS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. PYLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE BRINING MARINE
CLOUDS INLAND OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR
OUT BY MIDDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES INLAND TO REACH INTO THE 70S OR
LOW 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE CASCADES COULD SEE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR EVEN POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WHICH WILL DISRUPT THE PERSISTENT PATTERN. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL LIKELY SEE A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. BECAUSE OF HOW FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD THIS SYSTEM IS...TIMING COULD VERY WELL CHANGE AS WE APPROACH
THIS WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MARINE CLOUDS CLEARED MOST INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST AND NORTH OF KUAO...BUT ARE ALREADY RETURNING THIS EVENING.
EXPECT A SIMILAR REPEAT OF LAST 24 HOURS WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ON THE COAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING...THEN TRENDING TOWARD HIGH MVFR OR LOW
VFR TUE AFTERNOON. INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO FILL IN WITH CIGS
AROUND 2500 TO 3500 FEET BUT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL MID TO LATE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOW VFR CIGS AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET IN THE
AREA THROUGH 08Z TUE THEN LOWER TO AROUND 2500 FEET AROUND 08Z TO
10Z TUE.  EXPECT CIGS TO AGAIN LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY GOING TO SCATTERED CLOUDS. MH PT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WITH LOWER PRESSURE WELL INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AT TIMES. MIXED SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK...WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
TIMES DUE TO A FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL MIXED WITH A LONGER PERIOD
MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 260301
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
801 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...26/00Z NAM IN.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST
SISKIYOU AND SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTIES. THOSE ARE NOW DISSIPATING
WITH ONE LAST THUNDERSTORM LINGERING OVER SOUTHWEST MODOC COUNTY.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST A BIT LONGER.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE WEST COAST REMAINS BLOCKY THIS
EVENING. CURRENTLY A WEAK REX BLOCK IS IN PLACE WITH THE RIDGE
OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AND THE LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND WASHINGTON STATE BOUNDARY. THE PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TUESDAY
WITH THE LOW JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE MEDFORD CWA WARM AND DRY...BUT THE FLOW OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE IN.
EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM LOCATION AND COVERAGE TO BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT MODEL LIFTED INDICES INDICATE THEY WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG.

THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT EAST WEDNESDAY AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER THE CWA. MODEL LIFTED INDICES SHOW DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE AREA AS THE BEST INSTABILITY SETS UP SOUTH OF THE CWA.
THE LOW WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW FARTHER NORTH AS THE
BLOCKING HIGH PERSISTS IN THE SAME LOCATION.

THE OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN MORE STRONGLY THURSDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A WARMING TREND...AND MEDFORD MAY
SEE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST INCREASE OF 700-500 MB MOISTURE WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...ABOUT THE SAME AS ON THURSDAY.
THIS WARRANTS INCLUDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT LIKELY EAST OF THE KLAMATH BASIN.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THE REGION OF FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND LARGELY UPON THE POSITIONING OF
THE TWO MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE 700MB STEERING FLOW WILL
LIKELY BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR COAST FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE POSITION OF
THIS LOW IS UNCERTAIN. IF IT IS FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE, WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION, THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED ON SUNDAY. BUT, THERE IS ABOUT
AN EQUAL PROBABILITY THAT RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AND LEAD
TO A LOWER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN ON
SATURDAY. BY MONDAY, IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE LOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY NEAR OUR REGION TO BRING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS, LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EARLY OUTLOOK IS FOR HOT AND DRY
WEATHER TO FOLLOW ON DAY 8 THROUGH 10.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES IS NOW DIMINISHING
WHILE AREAS OF IFR CIGS REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. A MIX OF IFR AND
MVFR STRATUS WILL SURGE INTO THE COASTAL AND UMPQUA VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT THEN PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 18Z TUESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MND/DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT MONDAY 25 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PEAK IN STRENGTH
MONDAY EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE WATERS RESULTING STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO AND
SOUTH. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN WEAKENS, HOWEVER
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS KEEPING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE
WEEK...MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. -MND

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
        PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
        EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

15/15/15



000
FXUS66 KMFR 260301
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
801 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...26/00Z NAM IN.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST
SISKIYOU AND SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTIES. THOSE ARE NOW DISSIPATING
WITH ONE LAST THUNDERSTORM LINGERING OVER SOUTHWEST MODOC COUNTY.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST A BIT LONGER.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE WEST COAST REMAINS BLOCKY THIS
EVENING. CURRENTLY A WEAK REX BLOCK IS IN PLACE WITH THE RIDGE
OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AND THE LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND WASHINGTON STATE BOUNDARY. THE PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TUESDAY
WITH THE LOW JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE MEDFORD CWA WARM AND DRY...BUT THE FLOW OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE IN.
EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM LOCATION AND COVERAGE TO BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT MODEL LIFTED INDICES INDICATE THEY WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG.

THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT EAST WEDNESDAY AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER THE CWA. MODEL LIFTED INDICES SHOW DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE AREA AS THE BEST INSTABILITY SETS UP SOUTH OF THE CWA.
THE LOW WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW FARTHER NORTH AS THE
BLOCKING HIGH PERSISTS IN THE SAME LOCATION.

THE OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN MORE STRONGLY THURSDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A WARMING TREND...AND MEDFORD MAY
SEE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST INCREASE OF 700-500 MB MOISTURE WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...ABOUT THE SAME AS ON THURSDAY.
THIS WARRANTS INCLUDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT LIKELY EAST OF THE KLAMATH BASIN.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THE REGION OF FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND LARGELY UPON THE POSITIONING OF
THE TWO MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE 700MB STEERING FLOW WILL
LIKELY BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR COAST FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE POSITION OF
THIS LOW IS UNCERTAIN. IF IT IS FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE, WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION, THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED ON SUNDAY. BUT, THERE IS ABOUT
AN EQUAL PROBABILITY THAT RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AND LEAD
TO A LOWER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN ON
SATURDAY. BY MONDAY, IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE LOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY NEAR OUR REGION TO BRING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS, LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EARLY OUTLOOK IS FOR HOT AND DRY
WEATHER TO FOLLOW ON DAY 8 THROUGH 10.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES IS NOW DIMINISHING
WHILE AREAS OF IFR CIGS REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. A MIX OF IFR AND
MVFR STRATUS WILL SURGE INTO THE COASTAL AND UMPQUA VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT THEN PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 18Z TUESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MND/DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT MONDAY 25 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PEAK IN STRENGTH
MONDAY EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE WATERS RESULTING STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO AND
SOUTH. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN WEAKENS, HOWEVER
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS KEEPING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE
WEEK...MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. -MND

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
        PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
        EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

15/15/15




000
FXUS65 KBOI 260251
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
851 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATE TO DRY OUT THE MAGIC VALLEY AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. AS OF 830 PM IT WAS EAST
OF A LINE FROM BASQUE STATION /IN SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY/ TO
MARSING AND NOTUS /ACROSS THE IDAHO LOWER TREASURE VALLEY/ THEN TO
CASCADE AND JOHNSON CREEK AIR STRIP /IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. LIGHTNING WITH STRONGER CELLS AT 835 PM WERE NEAR
MARSING AND SOUTH OF JORDAN VALLEY. THEY ARE MOVING INTO RAIN
COOLED AIR AND WITH SUNSET ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF SOON. DRY AIR
MOVING ACROSS OREGON ZONES TUESDAY WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE PRECIP
TO THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS...IN SPITE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACNW.
ON WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND ITS
WESTERN HALF SO CHANCES ARE BETTER FOR PRECIP ON THE OREGON SIDE
AS WELL. THOUGH LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE ID/NV
BORDER TUE/WED. ONLY MINOR UPDATES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
MALHEUR COUNTY...THE OWYHEE AND BOISE MOUNTAINS...AND THE TREASURE
VALLEY WILL END BY 06Z. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OREGON AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO...MAINLY EAST OF KBNO. SURFACE WINDS...
WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS...EXCEPT GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG STORMS MAINLY OVER THE OWYHEES
AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF OWYHEE COUNTY. ONE STRONG CELL WAS
PRODUCING HAIL NEAR MARSING AT 230 PM MDT. ANOTHER STRONG CELL
WAS MOVING EAST OF MURPHY TOWARD MOUNTAIN HOME. WE EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EXTREME
SOUTHWEST HARNEY COUNTY THROUGH BAKER CITY...WITH THE MAJORITY
REMAINING IN OWYHEE COUNTY...AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY BY THIS
EVENING.

A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY SE IN WASHINGTON IS PROVIDING THE
MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...AND THIS WILL HOLD TRUE
TOMORROW AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL OVER NRN
IDAHO. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO MUCH OF SERN OREGON...
LIMITING CONVECTION THERE TUE AND WED. SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO OUR
AREA...ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO STRONG STORMS EVEN AS THE MOISTURE
DECREASES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR WHERE WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS BOTH FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...WITH WINDS AN ISSUE ONLY NEAR
STORMS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INLAND FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY THOUGH THEY VARY
QUITE A BIT WITH THE OVERALL DETAILS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL THURSDAY WILL WARM TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH 90F IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 260251
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
851 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATE TO DRY OUT THE MAGIC VALLEY AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. AS OF 830 PM IT WAS EAST
OF A LINE FROM BASQUE STATION /IN SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY/ TO
MARSING AND NOTUS /ACROSS THE IDAHO LOWER TREASURE VALLEY/ THEN TO
CASCADE AND JOHNSON CREEK AIR STRIP /IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. LIGHTNING WITH STRONGER CELLS AT 835 PM WERE NEAR
MARSING AND SOUTH OF JORDAN VALLEY. THEY ARE MOVING INTO RAIN
COOLED AIR AND WITH SUNSET ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF SOON. DRY AIR
MOVING ACROSS OREGON ZONES TUESDAY WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE PRECIP
TO THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS...IN SPITE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACNW.
ON WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND ITS
WESTERN HALF SO CHANCES ARE BETTER FOR PRECIP ON THE OREGON SIDE
AS WELL. THOUGH LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE ID/NV
BORDER TUE/WED. ONLY MINOR UPDATES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
MALHEUR COUNTY...THE OWYHEE AND BOISE MOUNTAINS...AND THE TREASURE
VALLEY WILL END BY 06Z. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OREGON AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO...MAINLY EAST OF KBNO. SURFACE WINDS...
WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS...EXCEPT GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG STORMS MAINLY OVER THE OWYHEES
AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF OWYHEE COUNTY. ONE STRONG CELL WAS
PRODUCING HAIL NEAR MARSING AT 230 PM MDT. ANOTHER STRONG CELL
WAS MOVING EAST OF MURPHY TOWARD MOUNTAIN HOME. WE EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EXTREME
SOUTHWEST HARNEY COUNTY THROUGH BAKER CITY...WITH THE MAJORITY
REMAINING IN OWYHEE COUNTY...AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY BY THIS
EVENING.

A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY SE IN WASHINGTON IS PROVIDING THE
MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...AND THIS WILL HOLD TRUE
TOMORROW AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL OVER NRN
IDAHO. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO MUCH OF SERN OREGON...
LIMITING CONVECTION THERE TUE AND WED. SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO OUR
AREA...ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO STRONG STORMS EVEN AS THE MOISTURE
DECREASES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR WHERE WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS BOTH FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...WITH WINDS AN ISSUE ONLY NEAR
STORMS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INLAND FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY THOUGH THEY VARY
QUITE A BIT WITH THE OVERALL DETAILS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL THURSDAY WILL WARM TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH 90F IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 260251
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
851 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATE TO DRY OUT THE MAGIC VALLEY AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. AS OF 830 PM IT WAS EAST
OF A LINE FROM BASQUE STATION /IN SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY/ TO
MARSING AND NOTUS /ACROSS THE IDAHO LOWER TREASURE VALLEY/ THEN TO
CASCADE AND JOHNSON CREEK AIR STRIP /IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. LIGHTNING WITH STRONGER CELLS AT 835 PM WERE NEAR
MARSING AND SOUTH OF JORDAN VALLEY. THEY ARE MOVING INTO RAIN
COOLED AIR AND WITH SUNSET ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF SOON. DRY AIR
MOVING ACROSS OREGON ZONES TUESDAY WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE PRECIP
TO THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS...IN SPITE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACNW.
ON WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND ITS
WESTERN HALF SO CHANCES ARE BETTER FOR PRECIP ON THE OREGON SIDE
AS WELL. THOUGH LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE ID/NV
BORDER TUE/WED. ONLY MINOR UPDATES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
MALHEUR COUNTY...THE OWYHEE AND BOISE MOUNTAINS...AND THE TREASURE
VALLEY WILL END BY 06Z. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OREGON AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO...MAINLY EAST OF KBNO. SURFACE WINDS...
WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS...EXCEPT GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG STORMS MAINLY OVER THE OWYHEES
AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF OWYHEE COUNTY. ONE STRONG CELL WAS
PRODUCING HAIL NEAR MARSING AT 230 PM MDT. ANOTHER STRONG CELL
WAS MOVING EAST OF MURPHY TOWARD MOUNTAIN HOME. WE EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EXTREME
SOUTHWEST HARNEY COUNTY THROUGH BAKER CITY...WITH THE MAJORITY
REMAINING IN OWYHEE COUNTY...AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY BY THIS
EVENING.

A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY SE IN WASHINGTON IS PROVIDING THE
MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...AND THIS WILL HOLD TRUE
TOMORROW AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL OVER NRN
IDAHO. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO MUCH OF SERN OREGON...
LIMITING CONVECTION THERE TUE AND WED. SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO OUR
AREA...ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO STRONG STORMS EVEN AS THE MOISTURE
DECREASES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR WHERE WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS BOTH FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...WITH WINDS AN ISSUE ONLY NEAR
STORMS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INLAND FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY THOUGH THEY VARY
QUITE A BIT WITH THE OVERALL DETAILS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL THURSDAY WILL WARM TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH 90F IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 260251
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
851 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATE TO DRY OUT THE MAGIC VALLEY AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. AS OF 830 PM IT WAS EAST
OF A LINE FROM BASQUE STATION /IN SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY/ TO
MARSING AND NOTUS /ACROSS THE IDAHO LOWER TREASURE VALLEY/ THEN TO
CASCADE AND JOHNSON CREEK AIR STRIP /IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. LIGHTNING WITH STRONGER CELLS AT 835 PM WERE NEAR
MARSING AND SOUTH OF JORDAN VALLEY. THEY ARE MOVING INTO RAIN
COOLED AIR AND WITH SUNSET ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF SOON. DRY AIR
MOVING ACROSS OREGON ZONES TUESDAY WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE PRECIP
TO THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS...IN SPITE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACNW.
ON WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND ITS
WESTERN HALF SO CHANCES ARE BETTER FOR PRECIP ON THE OREGON SIDE
AS WELL. THOUGH LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE ID/NV
BORDER TUE/WED. ONLY MINOR UPDATES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
MALHEUR COUNTY...THE OWYHEE AND BOISE MOUNTAINS...AND THE TREASURE
VALLEY WILL END BY 06Z. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OREGON AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO...MAINLY EAST OF KBNO. SURFACE WINDS...
WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS...EXCEPT GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG STORMS MAINLY OVER THE OWYHEES
AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF OWYHEE COUNTY. ONE STRONG CELL WAS
PRODUCING HAIL NEAR MARSING AT 230 PM MDT. ANOTHER STRONG CELL
WAS MOVING EAST OF MURPHY TOWARD MOUNTAIN HOME. WE EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EXTREME
SOUTHWEST HARNEY COUNTY THROUGH BAKER CITY...WITH THE MAJORITY
REMAINING IN OWYHEE COUNTY...AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY BY THIS
EVENING.

A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY SE IN WASHINGTON IS PROVIDING THE
MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...AND THIS WILL HOLD TRUE
TOMORROW AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL OVER NRN
IDAHO. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO MUCH OF SERN OREGON...
LIMITING CONVECTION THERE TUE AND WED. SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO OUR
AREA...ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO STRONG STORMS EVEN AS THE MOISTURE
DECREASES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR WHERE WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS BOTH FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...WITH WINDS AN ISSUE ONLY NEAR
STORMS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INLAND FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY THOUGH THEY VARY
QUITE A BIT WITH THE OVERALL DETAILS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL THURSDAY WILL WARM TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH 90F IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS/WH




000
FXUS66 KPDT 260225
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
725 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN
THIS EVENING...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON.
THESE SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE APPEARS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY...ONLY MOVING TO SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOW REMAINS UNSTABLE AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MAIN AREAS IMPACTED
WILL BE FROM THE WASHINGTON CASCADES ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN TO
THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER
IDAHO. UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES ACROSS
THE BASIN INTO NORTHEAST OREGON AGAIN. 94

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON BORDER WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON TODAY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
CASCADE GAPS, COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER KITTITAS VALLEY. THIS
FLOW IS RELATIVELY STABLE, SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED THIS EVENING. SOME BUILDUPS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES, AND GRANT COUNTY TO THE BLUES AND WALLOWA
COUNTY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SLOPES AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS (MAINLY
THE BLUES EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY). A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON. AS THE LOW DRIFTS ALONG THE WA/OR/ID BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEAST OREGON WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. A WEAK WAVE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND ENHANCE SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON, THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, AND NORTHEAST OREGON. WEDNESDAY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
DAYTIME HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AS WELL. THURSDAY WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND OREGON BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE
BLUES AND WALLOWAS. COONFIELD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL
PROVIDE SPLIT FLOW TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  THIS
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SATURDAY AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS PROGRESS EAST.  ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBILITIES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AND THE
EAGLE CAPS.  SATURDAY WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY EVENING. WEBER

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THERE REMAINS SLIGHT TIMING AND POSITION DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS TROUGH...WITH THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
STILL DROPPING THE FEATURE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. WITH
THESE DIFFERENCES IN MIND DECIDED TO JUST GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD PLACE THE CWA IN THE FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT JET AT THE 300MB LEVEL BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BEFORE
COOLING OFF CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 77

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VCSH POSSIBLE AT KYKM...KPSC...KALW...AND KPDT THROUGH ABOUT 07Z.
VCTS POSSIBLE AT KYKM...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TO MENTION. WINDS MAY
BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES...5-15KTS GUSTS 15-25KTS.  FEW TO SCT CLOUDS
AT 03-07KFT WITH BKN-OVC 10-15KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  75  51  77 /  20  20  20  20
ALW  56  77  57  79 /  20  30  20  30
PSC  54  80  55  84 /  20  20  20  20
YKM  53  77  54  82 /  20  30  30  20
HRI  52  80  53  82 /  20  10  20  20
ELN  54  76  53  81 /  20  40  30  20
RDM  39  76  42  76 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  46  71  48  71 /  20  40  20  30
GCD  44  75  45  73 /  10  10  10  30
DLS  54  77  56  83 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/



000
FXUS66 KPDT 260225
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
725 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN
THIS EVENING...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON.
THESE SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE APPEARS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY...ONLY MOVING TO SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOW REMAINS UNSTABLE AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MAIN AREAS IMPACTED
WILL BE FROM THE WASHINGTON CASCADES ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN TO
THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER
IDAHO. UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES ACROSS
THE BASIN INTO NORTHEAST OREGON AGAIN. 94

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON BORDER WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON TODAY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
CASCADE GAPS, COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER KITTITAS VALLEY. THIS
FLOW IS RELATIVELY STABLE, SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED THIS EVENING. SOME BUILDUPS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES, AND GRANT COUNTY TO THE BLUES AND WALLOWA
COUNTY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SLOPES AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS (MAINLY
THE BLUES EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY). A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON. AS THE LOW DRIFTS ALONG THE WA/OR/ID BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEAST OREGON WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. A WEAK WAVE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND ENHANCE SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON, THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, AND NORTHEAST OREGON. WEDNESDAY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
DAYTIME HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AS WELL. THURSDAY WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND OREGON BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE
BLUES AND WALLOWAS. COONFIELD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL
PROVIDE SPLIT FLOW TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  THIS
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SATURDAY AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS PROGRESS EAST.  ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBILITIES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AND THE
EAGLE CAPS.  SATURDAY WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY EVENING. WEBER

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THERE REMAINS SLIGHT TIMING AND POSITION DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS TROUGH...WITH THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
STILL DROPPING THE FEATURE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. WITH
THESE DIFFERENCES IN MIND DECIDED TO JUST GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD PLACE THE CWA IN THE FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT JET AT THE 300MB LEVEL BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BEFORE
COOLING OFF CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 77

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VCSH POSSIBLE AT KYKM...KPSC...KALW...AND KPDT THROUGH ABOUT 07Z.
VCTS POSSIBLE AT KYKM...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TO MENTION. WINDS MAY
BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES...5-15KTS GUSTS 15-25KTS.  FEW TO SCT CLOUDS
AT 03-07KFT WITH BKN-OVC 10-15KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  75  51  77 /  20  20  20  20
ALW  56  77  57  79 /  20  30  20  30
PSC  54  80  55  84 /  20  20  20  20
YKM  53  77  54  82 /  20  30  30  20
HRI  52  80  53  82 /  20  10  20  20
ELN  54  76  53  81 /  20  40  30  20
RDM  39  76  42  76 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  46  71  48  71 /  20  40  20  30
GCD  44  75  45  73 /  10  10  10  30
DLS  54  77  56  83 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/




000
FXUS66 KPDT 252309 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
409 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON BORDER WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON TODAY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
CASCADE GAPS, COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER KITTITAS VALLEY. THIS
FLOW IS RELATIVELY STABLE, SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED THIS EVENING. SOME BUILDUPS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES, AND GRANT COUNTY TO THE BLUES AND WALLOWA
COUNTY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SLOPES AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS (MAINLY
THE BLUES EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY). A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON. AS THE LOW DRIFTS ALONG THE WA/OR/ID BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEAST OREGON WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. A WEAK WAVE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND ENHANCE SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON, THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, AND NORTHEAST OREGON. WEDNESDAY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
DAYTIME HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AS WELL. THURSDAY WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND OREGON BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE
BLUES AND WALLOWAS. COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL
PROVIDE SPLIT FLOW TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  THIS
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SATURDAY AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS PROGRESS EAST.  ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBILITIES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AND THE
EAGLE CAPS.  SATURDAY WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY EVENING. WEBER

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THERE REMAINS SLIGHT TIMING AND POSITION DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS TROUGH...WITH THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
STILL DROPPING THE FEATURE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. WITH
THESE DIFFERENCES IN MIND DECIDED TO JUST GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD PLACE THE CWA IN THE FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT JET AT THE 300MB LEVEL BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BEFORE
COOLING OFF CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 77

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VCSH POSSIBLE AT KYKM...KPSC...KALW...AND KPDT THROUGH ABOUT 07Z.
VCTS POSSIBLE AT KYKM...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TO MENTION. WINDS MAY
BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES...5-15KTS GUSTS 15-25KTS.  FEW TO SCT CLOUDS
AT 03-07KFT WITH BKN-OVC 10-15KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  75  51  77 /  10  20  20  20
ALW  56  77  57  79 /  20  30  20  30
PSC  54  80  55  84 /  20  20  20  20
YKM  53  77  54  82 /  20  30  30  20
HRI  52  80  53  82 /  10  10  20  20
ELN  54  76  53  81 /  20  40  30  20
RDM  39  76  42  76 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  46  71  48  71 /  20  40  20  30
GCD  44  75  45  73 /  10  20  10  30
DLS  54  77  56  83 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/89/77/89




000
FXUS66 KPDT 252309 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
409 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON BORDER WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON TODAY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
CASCADE GAPS, COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER KITTITAS VALLEY. THIS
FLOW IS RELATIVELY STABLE, SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED THIS EVENING. SOME BUILDUPS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES, AND GRANT COUNTY TO THE BLUES AND WALLOWA
COUNTY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SLOPES AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS (MAINLY
THE BLUES EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY). A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON. AS THE LOW DRIFTS ALONG THE WA/OR/ID BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEAST OREGON WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. A WEAK WAVE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND ENHANCE SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON, THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, AND NORTHEAST OREGON. WEDNESDAY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
DAYTIME HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AS WELL. THURSDAY WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND OREGON BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE
BLUES AND WALLOWAS. COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL
PROVIDE SPLIT FLOW TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  THIS
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SATURDAY AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS PROGRESS EAST.  ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBILITIES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AND THE
EAGLE CAPS.  SATURDAY WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY EVENING. WEBER

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THERE REMAINS SLIGHT TIMING AND POSITION DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS TROUGH...WITH THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
STILL DROPPING THE FEATURE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. WITH
THESE DIFFERENCES IN MIND DECIDED TO JUST GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD PLACE THE CWA IN THE FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT JET AT THE 300MB LEVEL BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BEFORE
COOLING OFF CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 77

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VCSH POSSIBLE AT KYKM...KPSC...KALW...AND KPDT THROUGH ABOUT 07Z.
VCTS POSSIBLE AT KYKM...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TO MENTION. WINDS MAY
BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES...5-15KTS GUSTS 15-25KTS.  FEW TO SCT CLOUDS
AT 03-07KFT WITH BKN-OVC 10-15KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  75  51  77 /  10  20  20  20
ALW  56  77  57  79 /  20  30  20  30
PSC  54  80  55  84 /  20  20  20  20
YKM  53  77  54  82 /  20  30  30  20
HRI  52  80  53  82 /  10  10  20  20
ELN  54  76  53  81 /  20  40  30  20
RDM  39  76  42  76 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  46  71  48  71 /  20  40  20  30
GCD  44  75  45  73 /  10  20  10  30
DLS  54  77  56  83 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/89/77/89




000
FXUS66 KPDT 252309 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
409 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON BORDER WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON TODAY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
CASCADE GAPS, COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER KITTITAS VALLEY. THIS
FLOW IS RELATIVELY STABLE, SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED THIS EVENING. SOME BUILDUPS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES, AND GRANT COUNTY TO THE BLUES AND WALLOWA
COUNTY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SLOPES AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS (MAINLY
THE BLUES EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY). A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON. AS THE LOW DRIFTS ALONG THE WA/OR/ID BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEAST OREGON WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. A WEAK WAVE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND ENHANCE SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON, THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, AND NORTHEAST OREGON. WEDNESDAY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
DAYTIME HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AS WELL. THURSDAY WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND OREGON BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE
BLUES AND WALLOWAS. COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL
PROVIDE SPLIT FLOW TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  THIS
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SATURDAY AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS PROGRESS EAST.  ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBILITIES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AND THE
EAGLE CAPS.  SATURDAY WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY EVENING. WEBER

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THERE REMAINS SLIGHT TIMING AND POSITION DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS TROUGH...WITH THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
STILL DROPPING THE FEATURE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. WITH
THESE DIFFERENCES IN MIND DECIDED TO JUST GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD PLACE THE CWA IN THE FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT JET AT THE 300MB LEVEL BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BEFORE
COOLING OFF CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 77

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VCSH POSSIBLE AT KYKM...KPSC...KALW...AND KPDT THROUGH ABOUT 07Z.
VCTS POSSIBLE AT KYKM...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TO MENTION. WINDS MAY
BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES...5-15KTS GUSTS 15-25KTS.  FEW TO SCT CLOUDS
AT 03-07KFT WITH BKN-OVC 10-15KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  75  51  77 /  10  20  20  20
ALW  56  77  57  79 /  20  30  20  30
PSC  54  80  55  84 /  20  20  20  20
YKM  53  77  54  82 /  20  30  30  20
HRI  52  80  53  82 /  10  10  20  20
ELN  54  76  53  81 /  20  40  30  20
RDM  39  76  42  76 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  46  71  48  71 /  20  40  20  30
GCD  44  75  45  73 /  10  20  10  30
DLS  54  77  56  83 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/89/77/89




000
FXUS66 KPDT 252309 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
409 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON BORDER WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON TODAY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
CASCADE GAPS, COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER KITTITAS VALLEY. THIS
FLOW IS RELATIVELY STABLE, SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED THIS EVENING. SOME BUILDUPS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES, AND GRANT COUNTY TO THE BLUES AND WALLOWA
COUNTY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SLOPES AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS (MAINLY
THE BLUES EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY). A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON. AS THE LOW DRIFTS ALONG THE WA/OR/ID BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEAST OREGON WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. A WEAK WAVE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND ENHANCE SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON, THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, AND NORTHEAST OREGON. WEDNESDAY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
DAYTIME HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AS WELL. THURSDAY WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND OREGON BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE
BLUES AND WALLOWAS. COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL
PROVIDE SPLIT FLOW TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  THIS
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SATURDAY AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS PROGRESS EAST.  ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBILITIES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AND THE
EAGLE CAPS.  SATURDAY WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY EVENING. WEBER

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THERE REMAINS SLIGHT TIMING AND POSITION DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS TROUGH...WITH THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
STILL DROPPING THE FEATURE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. WITH
THESE DIFFERENCES IN MIND DECIDED TO JUST GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD PLACE THE CWA IN THE FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT JET AT THE 300MB LEVEL BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BEFORE
COOLING OFF CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 77

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VCSH POSSIBLE AT KYKM...KPSC...KALW...AND KPDT THROUGH ABOUT 07Z.
VCTS POSSIBLE AT KYKM...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TO MENTION. WINDS MAY
BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES...5-15KTS GUSTS 15-25KTS.  FEW TO SCT CLOUDS
AT 03-07KFT WITH BKN-OVC 10-15KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  75  51  77 /  10  20  20  20
ALW  56  77  57  79 /  20  30  20  30
PSC  54  80  55  84 /  20  20  20  20
YKM  53  77  54  82 /  20  30  30  20
HRI  52  80  53  82 /  10  10  20  20
ELN  54  76  53  81 /  20  40  30  20
RDM  39  76  42  76 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  46  71  48  71 /  20  40  20  30
GCD  44  75  45  73 /  10  20  10  30
DLS  54  77  56  83 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/89/77/89




000
FXUS66 KPDT 252309 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
409 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON BORDER WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON TODAY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
CASCADE GAPS, COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER KITTITAS VALLEY. THIS
FLOW IS RELATIVELY STABLE, SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED THIS EVENING. SOME BUILDUPS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES, AND GRANT COUNTY TO THE BLUES AND WALLOWA
COUNTY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SLOPES AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS (MAINLY
THE BLUES EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY). A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON. AS THE LOW DRIFTS ALONG THE WA/OR/ID BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEAST OREGON WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. A WEAK WAVE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND ENHANCE SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON, THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, AND NORTHEAST OREGON. WEDNESDAY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
DAYTIME HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AS WELL. THURSDAY WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND OREGON BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE
BLUES AND WALLOWAS. COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL
PROVIDE SPLIT FLOW TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  THIS
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SATURDAY AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS PROGRESS EAST.  ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBILITIES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AND THE
EAGLE CAPS.  SATURDAY WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY EVENING. WEBER

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THERE REMAINS SLIGHT TIMING AND POSITION DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS TROUGH...WITH THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
STILL DROPPING THE FEATURE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. WITH
THESE DIFFERENCES IN MIND DECIDED TO JUST GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD PLACE THE CWA IN THE FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT JET AT THE 300MB LEVEL BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BEFORE
COOLING OFF CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 77

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VCSH POSSIBLE AT KYKM...KPSC...KALW...AND KPDT THROUGH ABOUT 07Z.
VCTS POSSIBLE AT KYKM...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TO MENTION. WINDS MAY
BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES...5-15KTS GUSTS 15-25KTS.  FEW TO SCT CLOUDS
AT 03-07KFT WITH BKN-OVC 10-15KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  75  51  77 /  10  20  20  20
ALW  56  77  57  79 /  20  30  20  30
PSC  54  80  55  84 /  20  20  20  20
YKM  53  77  54  82 /  20  30  30  20
HRI  52  80  53  82 /  10  10  20  20
ELN  54  76  53  81 /  20  40  30  20
RDM  39  76  42  76 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  46  71  48  71 /  20  40  20  30
GCD  44  75  45  73 /  10  20  10  30
DLS  54  77  56  83 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/89/77/89



000
FXUS66 KPDT 252309 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
409 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON BORDER WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON TODAY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
CASCADE GAPS, COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER KITTITAS VALLEY. THIS
FLOW IS RELATIVELY STABLE, SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED THIS EVENING. SOME BUILDUPS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES, AND GRANT COUNTY TO THE BLUES AND WALLOWA
COUNTY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SLOPES AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS (MAINLY
THE BLUES EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY). A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON. AS THE LOW DRIFTS ALONG THE WA/OR/ID BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEAST OREGON WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. A WEAK WAVE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND ENHANCE SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON, THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, AND NORTHEAST OREGON. WEDNESDAY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
DAYTIME HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AS WELL. THURSDAY WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND OREGON BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE
BLUES AND WALLOWAS. COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL
PROVIDE SPLIT FLOW TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  THIS
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SATURDAY AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS PROGRESS EAST.  ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBILITIES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AND THE
EAGLE CAPS.  SATURDAY WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY EVENING. WEBER

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THERE REMAINS SLIGHT TIMING AND POSITION DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS TROUGH...WITH THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
STILL DROPPING THE FEATURE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. WITH
THESE DIFFERENCES IN MIND DECIDED TO JUST GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD PLACE THE CWA IN THE FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT JET AT THE 300MB LEVEL BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BEFORE
COOLING OFF CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 77

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VCSH POSSIBLE AT KYKM...KPSC...KALW...AND KPDT THROUGH ABOUT 07Z.
VCTS POSSIBLE AT KYKM...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TO MENTION. WINDS MAY
BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES...5-15KTS GUSTS 15-25KTS.  FEW TO SCT CLOUDS
AT 03-07KFT WITH BKN-OVC 10-15KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  75  51  77 /  10  20  20  20
ALW  56  77  57  79 /  20  30  20  30
PSC  54  80  55  84 /  20  20  20  20
YKM  53  77  54  82 /  20  30  30  20
HRI  52  80  53  82 /  10  10  20  20
ELN  54  76  53  81 /  20  40  30  20
RDM  39  76  42  76 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  46  71  48  71 /  20  40  20  30
GCD  44  75  45  73 /  10  20  10  30
DLS  54  77  56  83 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/89/77/89




000
FXUS66 KMFR 252306
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
406 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
NUDGE TOWARDS THE WEST COAST...MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO CONVERGE WITH WARM...MOIST UNSTABLE FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH OVER EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA
EASTWARD. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS MOVING THESE STORMS TO THE
EAST. THIS PATTERN MAKES A RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH VERY SIMILAR
RESULTS.

ON WEDNESDAY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SPREADING FURTHER INLAND. THIS WILL PUSH THE
AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND THETA E CONVERGENCE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO POSITION OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE EAST
SIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO
THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY TO RECORD
THEIR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR. /SVEN

.LONG TERM...THE STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST INCREASE OF 700-500 MB MOISTURE WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...ABOUT THE SAME AS ON THURSDAY.
THIS WARRANTS INCLUDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT LIKELY EAST OF THE KLAMATH BASIN.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THE REGION OF FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND LARGELY UPON THE POSITIONING OF
THE TWO MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE 700MB STEERING FLOW WILL
LIKELY BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR COAST FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE POSITION OF
THIS LOW IS UNCERTAIN. IF IT IS FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE, WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION, THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED ON SUNDAY. BUT, THERE IS ABOUT
AN EQUAL PROBABILITY THAT RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AND LEAD
TO A LOWER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN ON
SATURDAY. BY MONDAY, IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE LOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY NEAR OUR REGION TO BRING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS, LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EARLY OUTLOOK IS FOR HOT AND DRY
WEATHER TO FOLLOW ON DAY 8 THROUGH 10.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED
FROM THE COAST WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WHILE AREAS OF IFR CIGS
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR STRATUS WILL SURGE
INTO THE COASTAL AND UMPQUA VALLEYS OVERNIGHT THEN PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND 18Z TUESDAY MORNING. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT MONDAY 25 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PEAK IN STREGTH
MONDAY EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE WATERS RESULTING STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO AND SOUTH.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN WEAKENS, HOWEVER NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS
KEEPING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK...MOSTLY IN
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. /MND

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

SBN/DW/MND




000
FXUS66 KMFR 252306
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
406 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
NUDGE TOWARDS THE WEST COAST...MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO CONVERGE WITH WARM...MOIST UNSTABLE FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH OVER EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA
EASTWARD. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS MOVING THESE STORMS TO THE
EAST. THIS PATTERN MAKES A RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH VERY SIMILAR
RESULTS.

ON WEDNESDAY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SPREADING FURTHER INLAND. THIS WILL PUSH THE
AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND THETA E CONVERGENCE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO POSITION OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE EAST
SIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO
THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY TO RECORD
THEIR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR. /SVEN

.LONG TERM...THE STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST INCREASE OF 700-500 MB MOISTURE WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...ABOUT THE SAME AS ON THURSDAY.
THIS WARRANTS INCLUDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT LIKELY EAST OF THE KLAMATH BASIN.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THE REGION OF FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND LARGELY UPON THE POSITIONING OF
THE TWO MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE 700MB STEERING FLOW WILL
LIKELY BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR COAST FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE POSITION OF
THIS LOW IS UNCERTAIN. IF IT IS FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE, WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION, THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED ON SUNDAY. BUT, THERE IS ABOUT
AN EQUAL PROBABILITY THAT RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AND LEAD
TO A LOWER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN ON
SATURDAY. BY MONDAY, IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE LOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY NEAR OUR REGION TO BRING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS, LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EARLY OUTLOOK IS FOR HOT AND DRY
WEATHER TO FOLLOW ON DAY 8 THROUGH 10.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED
FROM THE COAST WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WHILE AREAS OF IFR CIGS
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR STRATUS WILL SURGE
INTO THE COASTAL AND UMPQUA VALLEYS OVERNIGHT THEN PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND 18Z TUESDAY MORNING. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT MONDAY 25 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PEAK IN STREGTH
MONDAY EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE WATERS RESULTING STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO AND SOUTH.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN WEAKENS, HOWEVER NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS
KEEPING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK...MOSTLY IN
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. /MND

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

SBN/DW/MND




000
FXUS66 KMFR 252306
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
406 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
NUDGE TOWARDS THE WEST COAST...MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO CONVERGE WITH WARM...MOIST UNSTABLE FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH OVER EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA
EASTWARD. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS MOVING THESE STORMS TO THE
EAST. THIS PATTERN MAKES A RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH VERY SIMILAR
RESULTS.

ON WEDNESDAY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SPREADING FURTHER INLAND. THIS WILL PUSH THE
AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND THETA E CONVERGENCE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO POSITION OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE EAST
SIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO
THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY TO RECORD
THEIR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR. /SVEN

.LONG TERM...THE STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST INCREASE OF 700-500 MB MOISTURE WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...ABOUT THE SAME AS ON THURSDAY.
THIS WARRANTS INCLUDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT LIKELY EAST OF THE KLAMATH BASIN.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THE REGION OF FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND LARGELY UPON THE POSITIONING OF
THE TWO MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE 700MB STEERING FLOW WILL
LIKELY BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR COAST FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE POSITION OF
THIS LOW IS UNCERTAIN. IF IT IS FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE, WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION, THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED ON SUNDAY. BUT, THERE IS ABOUT
AN EQUAL PROBABILITY THAT RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AND LEAD
TO A LOWER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN ON
SATURDAY. BY MONDAY, IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE LOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY NEAR OUR REGION TO BRING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS, LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EARLY OUTLOOK IS FOR HOT AND DRY
WEATHER TO FOLLOW ON DAY 8 THROUGH 10.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED
FROM THE COAST WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WHILE AREAS OF IFR CIGS
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR STRATUS WILL SURGE
INTO THE COASTAL AND UMPQUA VALLEYS OVERNIGHT THEN PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND 18Z TUESDAY MORNING. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT MONDAY 25 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PEAK IN STREGTH
MONDAY EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE WATERS RESULTING STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO AND SOUTH.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN WEAKENS, HOWEVER NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS
KEEPING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK...MOSTLY IN
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. /MND

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

SBN/DW/MND




000
FXUS66 KMFR 252306
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
406 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
NUDGE TOWARDS THE WEST COAST...MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO CONVERGE WITH WARM...MOIST UNSTABLE FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH OVER EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA
EASTWARD. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS MOVING THESE STORMS TO THE
EAST. THIS PATTERN MAKES A RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH VERY SIMILAR
RESULTS.

ON WEDNESDAY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SPREADING FURTHER INLAND. THIS WILL PUSH THE
AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND THETA E CONVERGENCE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO POSITION OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE EAST
SIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO
THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY TO RECORD
THEIR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR. /SVEN

.LONG TERM...THE STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST INCREASE OF 700-500 MB MOISTURE WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...ABOUT THE SAME AS ON THURSDAY.
THIS WARRANTS INCLUDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT LIKELY EAST OF THE KLAMATH BASIN.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THE REGION OF FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND LARGELY UPON THE POSITIONING OF
THE TWO MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE 700MB STEERING FLOW WILL
LIKELY BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR COAST FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE POSITION OF
THIS LOW IS UNCERTAIN. IF IT IS FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE, WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION, THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED ON SUNDAY. BUT, THERE IS ABOUT
AN EQUAL PROBABILITY THAT RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AND LEAD
TO A LOWER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN ON
SATURDAY. BY MONDAY, IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE LOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY NEAR OUR REGION TO BRING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS, LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EARLY OUTLOOK IS FOR HOT AND DRY
WEATHER TO FOLLOW ON DAY 8 THROUGH 10.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED
FROM THE COAST WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WHILE AREAS OF IFR CIGS
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR STRATUS WILL SURGE
INTO THE COASTAL AND UMPQUA VALLEYS OVERNIGHT THEN PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND 18Z TUESDAY MORNING. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT MONDAY 25 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PEAK IN STREGTH
MONDAY EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE WATERS RESULTING STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO AND SOUTH.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN WEAKENS, HOWEVER NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS
KEEPING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK...MOSTLY IN
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. /MND

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

SBN/DW/MND




000
FXUS66 KMFR 252202
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
302 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
NUDGE TOWARDS THE WEST COAST...MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO CONVERGE WITH WARM...MOIST UNSTABLE FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH OVER EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA
EASTWARD. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS MOVING THESE STORMS TO THE
EAST. THIS PATTERN MAKES A RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH VERY SIMILAR
RESULTS.

ON WEDNESDAY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SPREADING FURTHER INLAND. THIS WILL PUSH THE
AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND THETA E CONVERGENCE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO POSITION OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE EAST
SIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING. SVEN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED
FROM THE COAST WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WHILE AREAS OF IFR CIGS
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR STRATUS WILL SURGE
INTO THE COASTAL AND UMPQUA VALLEYS OVERNIGHT THEN PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND 18Z TUESDAY MORNING. /DW

&&

.MARINE....MARINE...UPDATED 400 AM PDT MONDAY 25 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR CAPE BLANCO SOUTH. HOWEVER STEEP SEAS
ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, EXPECT AREAS OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN




000
FXUS66 KPQR 252146
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
246 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN
WASHINGTON TODAY. MODERATE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE COASTAL DRIZZLE GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH. THERE IS A THREAT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG CREST OF THE S WASHINGTON
CASCADES TODAY AND TUE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT INTO IDAHO LATE TUE INTO WED...ALLOWING HIGH
PRES TO APPROACH THE PAC NW. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY BEGINNING WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN FEWER
CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADE CREST EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A RETURN TO THE
MARINE LAYER AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN WA TODAY. ONSHORE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW BROUGHT
EXTENSIVE MARINE CLOUD COVER ONSHORE THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS ARE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CLEARING
OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHER HALF OF THE FCST AREA. EXPECT THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SUN BREAKS DEVELOPING FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF SUN OVER
THE CASCADES TODAY...AND A FEW ECHOES ARE NOW SHOWING UP ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...SO WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE S WA CASCADE
CREST INTO THIS EVENING.

EXPECT TUE WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS
INTO EASTERN WA AND THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. BASED ON THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF MARINE
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS JUST OFFSHORE THAT SHOULD PUSH INLAND TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. LIKE TODAY...EXPECT THE CLOUDS AND PATCHY COAST AND
COAST RANGE DRIZZLE TO BE AROUND FOR THE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY
BURN OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER
MAY BE A BIT MORE SHALLOW...SO THE CLOUDS MAY BURN OFF JUST AN HOUR
OR TWO FASTER THAN TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. THE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG THE S WA
CASCADES...SO WILL KEEP A THUNDER THREAT IN THE FCST NEAR THE CREST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

BY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE FURTHER EAST INTO IDAHO. THIS WILL
ALLOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO PUSH TOWARD THE PAC NW...RESULTING IN
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND AN EVEN SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.
EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE A MORNING MARINE STRATUS PUSH WED
MORNING...BUT THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS. FCST HIGHS OVER THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS ARE INTO THE MID 70S. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADE CREST WED...AND WITH THE
700 MB WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD TRY
TO RIDE ALONG THE CREST INSTEAD OF DRIFTING EASTWARD.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST ON THU. EXPECT A
WEAKER MARINE PUSH THU MORNING...AND MOST OF THE FCST AREA
SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 80 FOR THE MANY INTERIOR LOWLAND
LOCATIONS...WITH IS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. PYLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE BRINING MARINE
CLOUDS INLAND OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR
OUT BY MIDDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES INLAND TO REACH INTO THE 70S OR
LOW 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE CASCADES COULD SEE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR EVEN POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WHICH WILL DISRUPT THE PERSISTENT PATTERN. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL LIKELY SEE A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. BECAUSE OF HOW FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD THIS SYSTEM IS...TIMING COULD VERY WELL CHANGE AS WE APPROACH
THIS WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS STARTING TO SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE SOME THIN SPOTS OR EVEN SEE THE CLOUDS GO
BRIEFLY SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A LOW INLAND OVER
WASHINGTON AND A LOT OF STRATOCUMULUS OFF THE COAST THAT WILL
ADVECT ONSHORE. EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS MOST AREAS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WE MAY EVEN SEE MORE AREAS GO SCATTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS ARE LIFTING TO VFR 030 TO 035 THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME BKN IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY BECOME SCATTERED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
00Z. CIGS SOLIDIFY AROUND 035 IN THE EVENING NEAR 26/03Z THEN
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO AGAIN
LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY GOING TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS. PT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WITH LOWER PRESSURE WELL INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AT TIMES. MIXED SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK...WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
TIMES DUE TO A FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL MIXED WITH A LONGER PERIOD
MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 252146
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
246 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN
WASHINGTON TODAY. MODERATE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE COASTAL DRIZZLE GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH. THERE IS A THREAT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG CREST OF THE S WASHINGTON
CASCADES TODAY AND TUE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT INTO IDAHO LATE TUE INTO WED...ALLOWING HIGH
PRES TO APPROACH THE PAC NW. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY BEGINNING WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN FEWER
CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADE CREST EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A RETURN TO THE
MARINE LAYER AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN WA TODAY. ONSHORE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW BROUGHT
EXTENSIVE MARINE CLOUD COVER ONSHORE THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS ARE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CLEARING
OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHER HALF OF THE FCST AREA. EXPECT THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SUN BREAKS DEVELOPING FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF SUN OVER
THE CASCADES TODAY...AND A FEW ECHOES ARE NOW SHOWING UP ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...SO WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE S WA CASCADE
CREST INTO THIS EVENING.

EXPECT TUE WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS
INTO EASTERN WA AND THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. BASED ON THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF MARINE
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS JUST OFFSHORE THAT SHOULD PUSH INLAND TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. LIKE TODAY...EXPECT THE CLOUDS AND PATCHY COAST AND
COAST RANGE DRIZZLE TO BE AROUND FOR THE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY
BURN OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER
MAY BE A BIT MORE SHALLOW...SO THE CLOUDS MAY BURN OFF JUST AN HOUR
OR TWO FASTER THAN TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. THE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG THE S WA
CASCADES...SO WILL KEEP A THUNDER THREAT IN THE FCST NEAR THE CREST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

BY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE FURTHER EAST INTO IDAHO. THIS WILL
ALLOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO PUSH TOWARD THE PAC NW...RESULTING IN
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND AN EVEN SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.
EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE A MORNING MARINE STRATUS PUSH WED
MORNING...BUT THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS. FCST HIGHS OVER THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS ARE INTO THE MID 70S. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADE CREST WED...AND WITH THE
700 MB WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD TRY
TO RIDE ALONG THE CREST INSTEAD OF DRIFTING EASTWARD.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST ON THU. EXPECT A
WEAKER MARINE PUSH THU MORNING...AND MOST OF THE FCST AREA
SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 80 FOR THE MANY INTERIOR LOWLAND
LOCATIONS...WITH IS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. PYLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE BRINING MARINE
CLOUDS INLAND OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR
OUT BY MIDDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES INLAND TO REACH INTO THE 70S OR
LOW 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE CASCADES COULD SEE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR EVEN POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WHICH WILL DISRUPT THE PERSISTENT PATTERN. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL LIKELY SEE A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. BECAUSE OF HOW FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD THIS SYSTEM IS...TIMING COULD VERY WELL CHANGE AS WE APPROACH
THIS WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS STARTING TO SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE SOME THIN SPOTS OR EVEN SEE THE CLOUDS GO
BRIEFLY SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A LOW INLAND OVER
WASHINGTON AND A LOT OF STRATOCUMULUS OFF THE COAST THAT WILL
ADVECT ONSHORE. EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS MOST AREAS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WE MAY EVEN SEE MORE AREAS GO SCATTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS ARE LIFTING TO VFR 030 TO 035 THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME BKN IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY BECOME SCATTERED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
00Z. CIGS SOLIDIFY AROUND 035 IN THE EVENING NEAR 26/03Z THEN
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO AGAIN
LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY GOING TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS. PT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WITH LOWER PRESSURE WELL INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AT TIMES. MIXED SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK...WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
TIMES DUE TO A FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL MIXED WITH A LONGER PERIOD
MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 252146
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
246 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN
WASHINGTON TODAY. MODERATE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE COASTAL DRIZZLE GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH. THERE IS A THREAT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG CREST OF THE S WASHINGTON
CASCADES TODAY AND TUE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT INTO IDAHO LATE TUE INTO WED...ALLOWING HIGH
PRES TO APPROACH THE PAC NW. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY BEGINNING WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN FEWER
CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADE CREST EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A RETURN TO THE
MARINE LAYER AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN WA TODAY. ONSHORE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW BROUGHT
EXTENSIVE MARINE CLOUD COVER ONSHORE THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS ARE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CLEARING
OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHER HALF OF THE FCST AREA. EXPECT THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SUN BREAKS DEVELOPING FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF SUN OVER
THE CASCADES TODAY...AND A FEW ECHOES ARE NOW SHOWING UP ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...SO WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE S WA CASCADE
CREST INTO THIS EVENING.

EXPECT TUE WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS
INTO EASTERN WA AND THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. BASED ON THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF MARINE
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS JUST OFFSHORE THAT SHOULD PUSH INLAND TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. LIKE TODAY...EXPECT THE CLOUDS AND PATCHY COAST AND
COAST RANGE DRIZZLE TO BE AROUND FOR THE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY
BURN OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER
MAY BE A BIT MORE SHALLOW...SO THE CLOUDS MAY BURN OFF JUST AN HOUR
OR TWO FASTER THAN TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. THE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG THE S WA
CASCADES...SO WILL KEEP A THUNDER THREAT IN THE FCST NEAR THE CREST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

BY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE FURTHER EAST INTO IDAHO. THIS WILL
ALLOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO PUSH TOWARD THE PAC NW...RESULTING IN
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND AN EVEN SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.
EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE A MORNING MARINE STRATUS PUSH WED
MORNING...BUT THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS. FCST HIGHS OVER THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS ARE INTO THE MID 70S. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADE CREST WED...AND WITH THE
700 MB WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD TRY
TO RIDE ALONG THE CREST INSTEAD OF DRIFTING EASTWARD.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST ON THU. EXPECT A
WEAKER MARINE PUSH THU MORNING...AND MOST OF THE FCST AREA
SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 80 FOR THE MANY INTERIOR LOWLAND
LOCATIONS...WITH IS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. PYLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE BRINING MARINE
CLOUDS INLAND OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR
OUT BY MIDDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES INLAND TO REACH INTO THE 70S OR
LOW 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE CASCADES COULD SEE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR EVEN POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WHICH WILL DISRUPT THE PERSISTENT PATTERN. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL LIKELY SEE A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. BECAUSE OF HOW FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD THIS SYSTEM IS...TIMING COULD VERY WELL CHANGE AS WE APPROACH
THIS WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS STARTING TO SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE SOME THIN SPOTS OR EVEN SEE THE CLOUDS GO
BRIEFLY SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A LOW INLAND OVER
WASHINGTON AND A LOT OF STRATOCUMULUS OFF THE COAST THAT WILL
ADVECT ONSHORE. EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS MOST AREAS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WE MAY EVEN SEE MORE AREAS GO SCATTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS ARE LIFTING TO VFR 030 TO 035 THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME BKN IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY BECOME SCATTERED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
00Z. CIGS SOLIDIFY AROUND 035 IN THE EVENING NEAR 26/03Z THEN
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO AGAIN
LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY GOING TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS. PT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WITH LOWER PRESSURE WELL INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AT TIMES. MIXED SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK...WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
TIMES DUE TO A FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL MIXED WITH A LONGER PERIOD
MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 252051
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG STORMS MAINLY OVER THE OWYHEES
AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF OWYHEE COUNTY. ONE STRONG CELL WAS
PRODUCING HAIL NEAR MARSING AT 230 PM MDT. ANOTHER STRONG CELL
WAS MOVING EAST OF MURPHY TOWARD MOUNTAIN HOME. WE EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EXTREME
SOUTHWEST HARNEY COUNTY THROUGH BAKER CITY...WITH THE MAJORITY
REMAINING IN OWYHEE COUNTY...AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY BY THIS
EVENING.

A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY SE IN WASHINGTON IS PROVIDING THE
MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...AND THIS WILL HOLD TRUE
TOMORROW AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL OVER NRN
IDAHO. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO MUCH OF SERN OREGON...
LIMITING CONVECTION THERE TUE AND WED. SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO OUR
AREA...ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO STRONG STORMS EVEN AS THE MOISTURE
DECREASES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR WHERE WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS BOTH FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...WITH WINDS AN ISSUE ONLY NEAR
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INLAND FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY THOUGH THEY VARY
QUITE A BIT WITH THE OVERALL DETAILS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL THURSDAY WILL WARM TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH 90F IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM KBNO-KBKE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER
VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SURFACE WINDS....
NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS UP TO 35KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 252051
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG STORMS MAINLY OVER THE OWYHEES
AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF OWYHEE COUNTY. ONE STRONG CELL WAS
PRODUCING HAIL NEAR MARSING AT 230 PM MDT. ANOTHER STRONG CELL
WAS MOVING EAST OF MURPHY TOWARD MOUNTAIN HOME. WE EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EXTREME
SOUTHWEST HARNEY COUNTY THROUGH BAKER CITY...WITH THE MAJORITY
REMAINING IN OWYHEE COUNTY...AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY BY THIS
EVENING.

A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY SE IN WASHINGTON IS PROVIDING THE
MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...AND THIS WILL HOLD TRUE
TOMORROW AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL OVER NRN
IDAHO. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO MUCH OF SERN OREGON...
LIMITING CONVECTION THERE TUE AND WED. SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO OUR
AREA...ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO STRONG STORMS EVEN AS THE MOISTURE
DECREASES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR WHERE WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS BOTH FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...WITH WINDS AN ISSUE ONLY NEAR
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INLAND FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY THOUGH THEY VARY
QUITE A BIT WITH THE OVERALL DETAILS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL THURSDAY WILL WARM TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH 90F IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM KBNO-KBKE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER
VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SURFACE WINDS....
NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS UP TO 35KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 252051
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG STORMS MAINLY OVER THE OWYHEES
AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF OWYHEE COUNTY. ONE STRONG CELL WAS
PRODUCING HAIL NEAR MARSING AT 230 PM MDT. ANOTHER STRONG CELL
WAS MOVING EAST OF MURPHY TOWARD MOUNTAIN HOME. WE EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EXTREME
SOUTHWEST HARNEY COUNTY THROUGH BAKER CITY...WITH THE MAJORITY
REMAINING IN OWYHEE COUNTY...AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY BY THIS
EVENING.

A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY SE IN WASHINGTON IS PROVIDING THE
MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...AND THIS WILL HOLD TRUE
TOMORROW AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL OVER NRN
IDAHO. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO MUCH OF SERN OREGON...
LIMITING CONVECTION THERE TUE AND WED. SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO OUR
AREA...ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO STRONG STORMS EVEN AS THE MOISTURE
DECREASES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR WHERE WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS BOTH FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...WITH WINDS AN ISSUE ONLY NEAR
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INLAND FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY THOUGH THEY VARY
QUITE A BIT WITH THE OVERALL DETAILS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL THURSDAY WILL WARM TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH 90F IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM KBNO-KBKE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER
VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SURFACE WINDS....
NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS UP TO 35KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 252051
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG STORMS MAINLY OVER THE OWYHEES
AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF OWYHEE COUNTY. ONE STRONG CELL WAS
PRODUCING HAIL NEAR MARSING AT 230 PM MDT. ANOTHER STRONG CELL
WAS MOVING EAST OF MURPHY TOWARD MOUNTAIN HOME. WE EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EXTREME
SOUTHWEST HARNEY COUNTY THROUGH BAKER CITY...WITH THE MAJORITY
REMAINING IN OWYHEE COUNTY...AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY BY THIS
EVENING.

A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY SE IN WASHINGTON IS PROVIDING THE
MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...AND THIS WILL HOLD TRUE
TOMORROW AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL OVER NRN
IDAHO. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO MUCH OF SERN OREGON...
LIMITING CONVECTION THERE TUE AND WED. SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO OUR
AREA...ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO STRONG STORMS EVEN AS THE MOISTURE
DECREASES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR WHERE WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS BOTH FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...WITH WINDS AN ISSUE ONLY NEAR
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INLAND FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY THOUGH THEY VARY
QUITE A BIT WITH THE OVERALL DETAILS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL THURSDAY WILL WARM TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH 90F IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM KBNO-KBKE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER
VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SURFACE WINDS....
NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS UP TO 35KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 252051
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG STORMS MAINLY OVER THE OWYHEES
AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF OWYHEE COUNTY. ONE STRONG CELL WAS
PRODUCING HAIL NEAR MARSING AT 230 PM MDT. ANOTHER STRONG CELL
WAS MOVING EAST OF MURPHY TOWARD MOUNTAIN HOME. WE EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EXTREME
SOUTHWEST HARNEY COUNTY THROUGH BAKER CITY...WITH THE MAJORITY
REMAINING IN OWYHEE COUNTY...AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY BY THIS
EVENING.

A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY SE IN WASHINGTON IS PROVIDING THE
MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...AND THIS WILL HOLD TRUE
TOMORROW AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL OVER NRN
IDAHO. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO MUCH OF SERN OREGON...
LIMITING CONVECTION THERE TUE AND WED. SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO OUR
AREA...ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO STRONG STORMS EVEN AS THE MOISTURE
DECREASES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR WHERE WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS BOTH FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...WITH WINDS AN ISSUE ONLY NEAR
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INLAND FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY THOUGH THEY VARY
QUITE A BIT WITH THE OVERALL DETAILS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL THURSDAY WILL WARM TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH 90F IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM KBNO-KBKE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER
VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SURFACE WINDS....
NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS UP TO 35KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS




000
FXUS66 KPDT 252046
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
146 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON BORDER WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON TODAY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
CASCADE GAPS, COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER KITTITAS VALLEY. THIS
FLOW IS RELATIVELY STABLE, SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED THIS EVENING. SOME BUILDUPS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES, AND GRANT COUNTY TO THE BLUES AND WALLOWA
COUNTY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SLOPES AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS (MAINLY
THE BLUES EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY). A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON. AS THE LOW DRIFTS ALONG THE WA/OR/ID BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEAST OREGON WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. A WEAK WAVE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND ENHANCE SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON, THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, AND NORTHEAST OREGON. WEDNESDAY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
DAYTIME HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AS WELL. THURSDAY WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND OREGON BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE
BLUES AND WALLOWAS. COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL
PROVIDE SPLIT FLOW TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  THIS
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SATURDAY AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS PROGRESS EAST.  ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBILITIES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AND THE
EAGLE CAPS.  SATURDAY WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY EVENING. WEBER

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THERE REMAINS SLIGHT TIMING AND POSITION DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS TROUGH...WITH THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
STILL DROPPING THE FEATURE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. WITH
THESE DIFFERENCES IN MIND DECIDED TO JUST GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD PLACE THE CWA IN THE FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT JET AT THE 300MB LEVEL BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BEFORE
COOLING OFF CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 77

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VCSH POSSIBLE AT KYKM...KPSC...KALW...AND KPDT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS AIRMASS IS MORE STABLE UNDER THIS WESTERLY
FLOW. VCTS POSSIBLE AT KYKM...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AS
WELL. WINDS MAY BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES...5-15KTS GUSTS 15-25KTS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 21Z...03Z FOR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.
FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AT 03-07KFT WITH BKN-OVC 10-15KFT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  75  51  77 /  10  20  20  20
ALW  56  77  57  79 /  20  30  20  30
PSC  54  80  55  84 /  20  20  20  20
YKM  53  77  54  82 /  20  30  30  20
HRI  52  80  53  82 /  10  10  20  20
ELN  54  76  53  81 /  20  40  30  20
RDM  39  76  42  76 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  46  71  48  71 /  20  40  20  30
GCD  44  75  45  73 /  10  20  10  30
DLS  54  77  56  83 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/89/89



000
FXUS66 KPDT 252046
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
146 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON BORDER WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON TODAY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
CASCADE GAPS, COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER KITTITAS VALLEY. THIS
FLOW IS RELATIVELY STABLE, SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED THIS EVENING. SOME BUILDUPS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES, AND GRANT COUNTY TO THE BLUES AND WALLOWA
COUNTY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SLOPES AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS (MAINLY
THE BLUES EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY). A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON. AS THE LOW DRIFTS ALONG THE WA/OR/ID BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEAST OREGON WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. A WEAK WAVE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND ENHANCE SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON, THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, AND NORTHEAST OREGON. WEDNESDAY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
DAYTIME HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AS WELL. THURSDAY WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND OREGON BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE
BLUES AND WALLOWAS. COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL
PROVIDE SPLIT FLOW TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  THIS
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SATURDAY AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS PROGRESS EAST.  ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBILITIES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AND THE
EAGLE CAPS.  SATURDAY WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY EVENING. WEBER

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THERE REMAINS SLIGHT TIMING AND POSITION DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS TROUGH...WITH THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
STILL DROPPING THE FEATURE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. WITH
THESE DIFFERENCES IN MIND DECIDED TO JUST GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD PLACE THE CWA IN THE FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT JET AT THE 300MB LEVEL BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BEFORE
COOLING OFF CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 77

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VCSH POSSIBLE AT KYKM...KPSC...KALW...AND KPDT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS AIRMASS IS MORE STABLE UNDER THIS WESTERLY
FLOW. VCTS POSSIBLE AT KYKM...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AS
WELL. WINDS MAY BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES...5-15KTS GUSTS 15-25KTS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 21Z...03Z FOR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.
FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AT 03-07KFT WITH BKN-OVC 10-15KFT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  75  51  77 /  10  20  20  20
ALW  56  77  57  79 /  20  30  20  30
PSC  54  80  55  84 /  20  20  20  20
YKM  53  77  54  82 /  20  30  30  20
HRI  52  80  53  82 /  10  10  20  20
ELN  54  76  53  81 /  20  40  30  20
RDM  39  76  42  76 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  46  71  48  71 /  20  40  20  30
GCD  44  75  45  73 /  10  20  10  30
DLS  54  77  56  83 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/89/89




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