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000
FXUS66 KPDT 211733 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1033 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO IDAHO THIS
MORNING. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OVER THE BLUES AND WALLOWA COUNTY
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. A MUCH WEAKER SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES. COOLER AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. 12Z MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 94

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. RAIN COULD ARRIVE AT
KBDN...KDLS AND KYKM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 12 KTS...EXCEPT FOR GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT KBDN.  82

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 445 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD AND EXIT THE AREA EARLY TODAY. RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT EXITING THIS MORNING WILL SEE
SHOWERS ON THE DECREASE OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO SPREAD
EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
5500-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY. RAIN SHADOWING WILL
DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN, AND YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. COONFIELD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROF WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE RAIN WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  EC-GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL SUNDAY
WHEN EC DEVELOPS A RIDGE AND GFS STAYS WITH WEAK TROF AND FLAT
WESTERLY FLOW.  WITH THIS SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE EXTREMES EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65  45  69  53 /  10  10  40  70
ALW  65  48  68  53 /  10  10  40  70
PSC  67  49  67  53 /  10  10  50  60
YKM  63  44  59  45 /  10  30  70  70
HRI  67  43  66  51 /  10  10  50  70
ELN  63  45  60  45 /  10  60  80  80
RDM  60  40  66  46 /  10  10  50  80
LGD  60  41  64  50 /  40  10  20  50
GCD  60  40  64  48 /  20  10  20  50
DLS  65  48  62  52 /  10  30  70  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/82






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000
FXUS66 KPQR 211644
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
944 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
CLAPS OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT
BASIN. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...SPREADING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS
AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND PASS BY. ANOTHER WET
AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...MODELS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE THUS FAR WITH THE 12Z OUTPUT.
THE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFFSHORE. THE OCCLUSION IS SITUATED
JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS SETUP PLACES
OUR REGION SQUARELY IN THE WARMING SECTOR OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS ARE STILL VERY FAVORABLE TO SEE A COASTAL JET DEVELOP
WITH NAM12 AND RAP INDICATED PEAK SPEEDS AROUND 67 MPH CENTERED
AROUND 900 MB. THUS FEEL MOST GUSTS ALONG THE COAST WILL PEAK OUT
AROUND 60 MPH GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND WINDS AT THAT LEVEL VEERING MORE SW THAN THE SOUTH WINDS TRAPPED
ALONG THE TERRAIN. WILL STILL CARRY THE HIGHER SPEEDS TONIGHT IN THE
PRODUCTS FOR NOW AS THE EXPOSED HIGHER HEADLANDS SUCH AS CAPE
FOULWEATHER...CAPE LOOKOUT...AND CAPE DISAPPOINTMENT CERTAINLY COULD
FULLY REALIZE THOSE HIGHER SPEEDS. RAIN AMOUNTS REMAIN ON TRACK AS
EXPECTED FROM OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR
THIS SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.  WEAGLE

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS FORMING FROM TIME TO TIME. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.
COASTAL SITES MAY SEE WIND GUSTS TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH
WED MORNING. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD HEAVIER RAIN ONTO THE COAST
OVERNIGHT NIGHT AND INLAND TOMORROW MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
BRIEF MVFR CIG MAY FORM THROUGH ABOUT 21Z IN SHOWERS. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT TO SPREAD STEADY RAIN IN AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...S/SW WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY...REACHING
GALE FORCE BY MID AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH
GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KT EXPECTED. SOME COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT MAY
BRING A FEW 50 TO 55 KT GUSTS TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...SEAS
MAY APPROACH 20 KT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK...BUT THE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



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000
FXUS66 KMFR 211556
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
856 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THERE WERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EARLIER WITH SNOW LEVEL
AROUND 5500 FEET FOR SW OREGON. WITH LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT..EXPECT
MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES AND ONLY ON THE WEST
FACING SLOPE UNTIL NOON. HAVE UPDATED THE SNOW LEVEL GRID FOR
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER. NEXT FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SHASTA VALLEYS AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT FORECAST WIND FOR WEDNESDAY
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO HAVE A
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SO THE COAST AND INLAND INTO
DOUGLAS AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES SHOULD GET PLENTY OF RAIN. THE
ROGUE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE DOWNSLOPE DRYING MOST OF THE DAY.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY COULD SEE RAIN BY THEN. THOSE TWO ISSUES WILL BE
ON THE PLATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON PACKAGE. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...21/12Z TAF CYCLE...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS
WILL KEEP GENERALLY VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AROUND FROM THE CASCADES
WEST THIS MORNING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THESE
AREAS AS WELL. LATER THIS MORNING THE SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE AND MOST
LOCATIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR...WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
DIMINISHING AS WELL. LATE TONIGHT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
THE COAST AND WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE
SHARPLY...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AROUND
THE COAST WHERE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK.

RAIN WILL REACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...AND CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE COAST RANGE BECOMING OBSCURED. /SK


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT TUE 21 OCT 2014...A HEAVY WEST SWELL
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH SEAS
AROUND 13 FEET. AN APPROACHING STRONG FRONT WILL RAMP UP THE WINDS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING GALES INITIALLY TO THE NORTHERN WATERS
THIS EVENING AND THEN TO MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY FROM FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS WEST SWELL COMBINES WITH INCREASING WIND
WAVES TO PRODUCE CHAOTIC AND DANGEROUS SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LOWER SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THE GALES
OVER THE WATERS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. WE HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF
THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...AND WE EXPECT THE GALES WILL
REACHING WITHIN SEVERAL NAUTICAL MILES OF THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND ON WEDNESDAY.

/SK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...21/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE PROGRESSIVE WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE MEDFORD CWA WITH
MULTIPLE FRONTS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

ONE FRONT IS NOW DEPARTING THE MEDFORD CWA...LEAVING BEHIND
SHOWERS UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED EARLIER TONIGHT BUT THOSE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. THE
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE BREAK WILL BE BRIEF...AT LEAST ALONG THE
COAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 5500-6000 FEET...SO SNOW
WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE PASSES.

AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST...
BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING
FROM THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT.
THEREFORE...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE BUT IT WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO PROGRESS. IT WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INLAND
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO AS THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

EXPECT A LOT OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
COAST RANGE...1-2 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND 2-4 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HEAVIER RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT
IT WON`T DEVELOP OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO DOWNSLOPING. ONCE IT DOES THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD GET 0.25-0.50
INCHES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHTER AS THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS NEAR
AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND PEAKING OUT
BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE OTHER WINDY SPOT WILL BE THE SHASTA VALLEY...WHERE THEY WILL
LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS ARE MORE
WESTERLY...BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT WILL PEAK AT AROUND
-5.0 MB WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL INDUCE A STRONG WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE...REJUVENATING THE FRONT AND PUSHING IT ONSHORE FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO AROUND 130W ON
FRIDAY...AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE CAUSING THE
TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS...THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY...AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY...AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN
MAKER FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE
TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS...COAST...AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION...WE WEREN`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY HOWEVER. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT
HAS SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES.
-WRIGHT

AVIATION...21/06Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
AREAS OF MVFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT VFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND TUESDAY EVENING. -DW

MARINE...UPDATED 1000 PM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
LATE TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LOWER. BUT, SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND ABOVE 10
FEET. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH GALES LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE STRONGEST
FRONT OF THE WEEK SLOWLY MOVES EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT TO
GALE WINDS AND BUILDING WEST SWELL, VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A COMBINED HEIGHT OF 10 TO 13 FT ON TUESDAY
BUILDING TO 15 TO 17 FT WEDNESDAY.

THE HIGH AND STEEP WEST SWELL IS LIKELY TO BECOME DOMINANT AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
WATERS. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MAY FOLLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5
     PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

FJB/FJB/NSK





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 211556
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
956 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS WAVE WAS ENHANCING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH SHOWERS DECREASING FROM SW
TO NW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE SHOWERS /SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 6500 FEET/ WILL
PERSIST IN THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY IS
MINIMAL...BUT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE TREASURE
VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH 18Z...BRINGING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED IFR CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT KJER...BUT
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG-LASTING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN
THE MTNS WITH MTNS OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS. VFR TONIGHT. SFC
WINDS GENERALLY W 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10 KFT WILL BE W 20-30
KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDITIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA



000
FXUS66 KMFR 211556
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
856 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THERE WERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EARLIER WITH SNOW LEVEL
AROUND 5500 FEET FOR SW OREGON. WITH LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT..EXPECT
MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES AND ONLY ON THE WEST
FACING SLOPE UNTIL NOON. HAVE UPDATED THE SNOW LEVEL GRID FOR
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER. NEXT FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SHASTA VALLEYS AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT FORECAST WIND FOR WEDNESDAY
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO HAVE A
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SO THE COAST AND INLAND INTO
DOUGLAS AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES SHOULD GET PLENTY OF RAIN. THE
ROGUE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE DOWNSLOPE DRYING MOST OF THE DAY.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY COULD SEE RAIN BY THEN. THOSE TWO ISSUES WILL BE
ON THE PLATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON PACKAGE. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...21/12Z TAF CYCLE...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS
WILL KEEP GENERALLY VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AROUND FROM THE CASCADES
WEST THIS MORNING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THESE
AREAS AS WELL. LATER THIS MORNING THE SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE AND MOST
LOCATIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR...WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
DIMINISHING AS WELL. LATE TONIGHT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
THE COAST AND WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE
SHARPLY...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AROUND
THE COAST WHERE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK.

RAIN WILL REACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...AND CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE COAST RANGE BECOMING OBSCURED. /SK


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT TUE 21 OCT 2014...A HEAVY WEST SWELL
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH SEAS
AROUND 13 FEET. AN APPROACHING STRONG FRONT WILL RAMP UP THE WINDS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING GALES INITIALLY TO THE NORTHERN WATERS
THIS EVENING AND THEN TO MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY FROM FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS WEST SWELL COMBINES WITH INCREASING WIND
WAVES TO PRODUCE CHAOTIC AND DANGEROUS SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LOWER SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THE GALES
OVER THE WATERS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. WE HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF
THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...AND WE EXPECT THE GALES WILL
REACHING WITHIN SEVERAL NAUTICAL MILES OF THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND ON WEDNESDAY.

/SK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...21/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE PROGRESSIVE WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE MEDFORD CWA WITH
MULTIPLE FRONTS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

ONE FRONT IS NOW DEPARTING THE MEDFORD CWA...LEAVING BEHIND
SHOWERS UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED EARLIER TONIGHT BUT THOSE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. THE
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE BREAK WILL BE BRIEF...AT LEAST ALONG THE
COAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 5500-6000 FEET...SO SNOW
WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE PASSES.

AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST...
BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING
FROM THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT.
THEREFORE...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE BUT IT WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO PROGRESS. IT WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INLAND
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO AS THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

EXPECT A LOT OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
COAST RANGE...1-2 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND 2-4 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HEAVIER RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT
IT WON`T DEVELOP OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO DOWNSLOPING. ONCE IT DOES THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD GET 0.25-0.50
INCHES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHTER AS THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS NEAR
AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND PEAKING OUT
BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE OTHER WINDY SPOT WILL BE THE SHASTA VALLEY...WHERE THEY WILL
LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS ARE MORE
WESTERLY...BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT WILL PEAK AT AROUND
-5.0 MB WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL INDUCE A STRONG WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE...REJUVENATING THE FRONT AND PUSHING IT ONSHORE FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO AROUND 130W ON
FRIDAY...AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE CAUSING THE
TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS...THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY...AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY...AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN
MAKER FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE
TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS...COAST...AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION...WE WEREN`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY HOWEVER. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT
HAS SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES.
-WRIGHT

AVIATION...21/06Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
AREAS OF MVFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT VFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND TUESDAY EVENING. -DW

MARINE...UPDATED 1000 PM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
LATE TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LOWER. BUT, SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND ABOVE 10
FEET. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH GALES LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE STRONGEST
FRONT OF THE WEEK SLOWLY MOVES EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT TO
GALE WINDS AND BUILDING WEST SWELL, VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A COMBINED HEIGHT OF 10 TO 13 FT ON TUESDAY
BUILDING TO 15 TO 17 FT WEDNESDAY.

THE HIGH AND STEEP WEST SWELL IS LIKELY TO BECOME DOMINANT AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
WATERS. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MAY FOLLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5
     PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

FJB/FJB/NSK






000
FXUS65 KBOI 211556
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
956 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS WAVE WAS ENHANCING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH SHOWERS DECREASING FROM SW
TO NW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE SHOWERS /SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 6500 FEET/ WILL
PERSIST IN THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY IS
MINIMAL...BUT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE TREASURE
VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH 18Z...BRINGING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED IFR CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT KJER...BUT
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG-LASTING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN
THE MTNS WITH MTNS OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS. VFR TONIGHT. SFC
WINDS GENERALLY W 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10 KFT WILL BE W 20-30
KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDITIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA



000
FXUS66 KMFR 211556
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
856 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THERE WERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EARLIER WITH SNOW LEVEL
AROUND 5500 FEET FOR SW OREGON. WITH LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT..EXPECT
MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES AND ONLY ON THE WEST
FACING SLOPE UNTIL NOON. HAVE UPDATED THE SNOW LEVEL GRID FOR
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER. NEXT FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SHASTA VALLEYS AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT FORECAST WIND FOR WEDNESDAY
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO HAVE A
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SO THE COAST AND INLAND INTO
DOUGLAS AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES SHOULD GET PLENTY OF RAIN. THE
ROGUE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE DOWNSLOPE DRYING MOST OF THE DAY.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY COULD SEE RAIN BY THEN. THOSE TWO ISSUES WILL BE
ON THE PLATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON PACKAGE. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...21/12Z TAF CYCLE...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS
WILL KEEP GENERALLY VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AROUND FROM THE CASCADES
WEST THIS MORNING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THESE
AREAS AS WELL. LATER THIS MORNING THE SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE AND MOST
LOCATIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR...WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
DIMINISHING AS WELL. LATE TONIGHT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
THE COAST AND WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE
SHARPLY...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AROUND
THE COAST WHERE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK.

RAIN WILL REACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...AND CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE COAST RANGE BECOMING OBSCURED. /SK


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT TUE 21 OCT 2014...A HEAVY WEST SWELL
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH SEAS
AROUND 13 FEET. AN APPROACHING STRONG FRONT WILL RAMP UP THE WINDS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING GALES INITIALLY TO THE NORTHERN WATERS
THIS EVENING AND THEN TO MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY FROM FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS WEST SWELL COMBINES WITH INCREASING WIND
WAVES TO PRODUCE CHAOTIC AND DANGEROUS SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LOWER SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THE GALES
OVER THE WATERS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. WE HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF
THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...AND WE EXPECT THE GALES WILL
REACHING WITHIN SEVERAL NAUTICAL MILES OF THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND ON WEDNESDAY.

/SK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...21/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE PROGRESSIVE WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE MEDFORD CWA WITH
MULTIPLE FRONTS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

ONE FRONT IS NOW DEPARTING THE MEDFORD CWA...LEAVING BEHIND
SHOWERS UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED EARLIER TONIGHT BUT THOSE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. THE
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE BREAK WILL BE BRIEF...AT LEAST ALONG THE
COAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 5500-6000 FEET...SO SNOW
WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE PASSES.

AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST...
BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING
FROM THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT.
THEREFORE...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE BUT IT WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO PROGRESS. IT WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INLAND
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO AS THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

EXPECT A LOT OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
COAST RANGE...1-2 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND 2-4 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HEAVIER RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT
IT WON`T DEVELOP OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO DOWNSLOPING. ONCE IT DOES THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD GET 0.25-0.50
INCHES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHTER AS THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS NEAR
AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND PEAKING OUT
BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE OTHER WINDY SPOT WILL BE THE SHASTA VALLEY...WHERE THEY WILL
LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS ARE MORE
WESTERLY...BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT WILL PEAK AT AROUND
-5.0 MB WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL INDUCE A STRONG WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE...REJUVENATING THE FRONT AND PUSHING IT ONSHORE FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO AROUND 130W ON
FRIDAY...AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE CAUSING THE
TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS...THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY...AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY...AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN
MAKER FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE
TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS...COAST...AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION...WE WEREN`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY HOWEVER. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT
HAS SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES.
-WRIGHT

AVIATION...21/06Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
AREAS OF MVFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT VFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND TUESDAY EVENING. -DW

MARINE...UPDATED 1000 PM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
LATE TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LOWER. BUT, SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND ABOVE 10
FEET. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH GALES LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE STRONGEST
FRONT OF THE WEEK SLOWLY MOVES EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT TO
GALE WINDS AND BUILDING WEST SWELL, VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A COMBINED HEIGHT OF 10 TO 13 FT ON TUESDAY
BUILDING TO 15 TO 17 FT WEDNESDAY.

THE HIGH AND STEEP WEST SWELL IS LIKELY TO BECOME DOMINANT AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
WATERS. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MAY FOLLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5
     PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

FJB/FJB/NSK






000
FXUS65 KBOI 211556
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
956 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS WAVE WAS ENHANCING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH SHOWERS DECREASING FROM SW
TO NW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE SHOWERS /SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 6500 FEET/ WILL
PERSIST IN THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY IS
MINIMAL...BUT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE TREASURE
VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH 18Z...BRINGING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED IFR CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT KJER...BUT
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG-LASTING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN
THE MTNS WITH MTNS OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS. VFR TONIGHT. SFC
WINDS GENERALLY W 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10 KFT WILL BE W 20-30
KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDITIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 211556
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
956 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS WAVE WAS ENHANCING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH SHOWERS DECREASING FROM SW
TO NW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE SHOWERS /SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 6500 FEET/ WILL
PERSIST IN THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY IS
MINIMAL...BUT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE TREASURE
VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH 18Z...BRINGING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED IFR CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT KJER...BUT
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG-LASTING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN
THE MTNS WITH MTNS OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS. VFR TONIGHT. SFC
WINDS GENERALLY W 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10 KFT WILL BE W 20-30
KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDITIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 211556
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
956 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS WAVE WAS ENHANCING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH SHOWERS DECREASING FROM SW
TO NW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE SHOWERS /SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 6500 FEET/ WILL
PERSIST IN THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY IS
MINIMAL...BUT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE TREASURE
VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH 18Z...BRINGING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED IFR CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT KJER...BUT
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG-LASTING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN
THE MTNS WITH MTNS OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS. VFR TONIGHT. SFC
WINDS GENERALLY W 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10 KFT WILL BE W 20-30
KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDITIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS66 KPDT 211505
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO IDAHO THIS
MORNING. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OVER THE BLUES AND WALLOWA COUNTY
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. A MUCH WEAKER SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES. COOLER AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. 12Z MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 445 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD AND EXIT THE AREA EARLY TODAY. RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT EXITING THIS MORNING WILL SEE
SHOWERS ON THE DECREASE OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO SPREAD
EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
5500-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY. RAIN SHADOWING WILL
DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN, AND YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. COONFIELD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROF WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE RAIN WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  EC-GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL SUNDAY
WHEN EC DEVELOPS A RIDGE AND GFS STAYS WITH WEAK TROF AND FLAT
WESTERLY FLOW.  WITH THIS SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE EXTREMES EXPECTED.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...LIFR AT KYKM DUE TO RADIATION FOG BURNING OFF
AROUND 16Z.  REST OF TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS.  OVC 5-10K
AGL OVERSPREADING AREA AFTER 00Z. HULL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65  45  69  53 /  10  10  40  70
ALW  65  48  68  53 /  10  10  40  70
PSC  67  49  67  53 /  10  10  50  60
YKM  63  44  59  45 /  10  30  70  70
HRI  67  43  66  51 /  10  10  50  70
ELN  63  45  60  45 /  10  60  80  80
RDM  60  40  66  46 /  10  10  50  80
LGD  60  41  64  50 /  40  10  20  50
GCD  60  40  64  48 /  20  10  20  50
DLS  65  48  62  52 /  10  30  70  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/





000
FXUS66 KPDT 211505
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO IDAHO THIS
MORNING. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OVER THE BLUES AND WALLOWA COUNTY
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. A MUCH WEAKER SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES. COOLER AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. 12Z MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 445 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD AND EXIT THE AREA EARLY TODAY. RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT EXITING THIS MORNING WILL SEE
SHOWERS ON THE DECREASE OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO SPREAD
EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
5500-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY. RAIN SHADOWING WILL
DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN, AND YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. COONFIELD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROF WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE RAIN WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  EC-GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL SUNDAY
WHEN EC DEVELOPS A RIDGE AND GFS STAYS WITH WEAK TROF AND FLAT
WESTERLY FLOW.  WITH THIS SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE EXTREMES EXPECTED.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...LIFR AT KYKM DUE TO RADIATION FOG BURNING OFF
AROUND 16Z.  REST OF TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS.  OVC 5-10K
AGL OVERSPREADING AREA AFTER 00Z. HULL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65  45  69  53 /  10  10  40  70
ALW  65  48  68  53 /  10  10  40  70
PSC  67  49  67  53 /  10  10  50  60
YKM  63  44  59  45 /  10  30  70  70
HRI  67  43  66  51 /  10  10  50  70
ELN  63  45  60  45 /  10  60  80  80
RDM  60  40  66  46 /  10  10  50  80
LGD  60  41  64  50 /  40  10  20  50
GCD  60  40  64  48 /  20  10  20  50
DLS  65  48  62  52 /  10  30  70  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 211144
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
445 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD AND EXIT THE AREA EARLY TODAY. RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT EXITING THIS MORNING WILL SEE
SHOWERS ON THE DECREASE OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO SPREAD
EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
5500-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY. RAIN SHADOWING WILL
DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN, AND YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROF WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE RAIN WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  EC-GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL SUNDAY
WHEN EC DEVELOPS A RIDGE AND GFS STAYS WITH WEAK TROF AND FLAT
WESTERLY FLOW.  WITH THIS SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE EXTREMES EXPECTED.


&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...LIFR AT KYKM DUE TO RADIATION FOG BURNING OFF
AROUND 16Z.  REST OF TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS.  OVC 5-10K
AGL OVERSPREADING AREA AFTER 00Z. HULL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67  45  69  53 /  20  10  40  70
ALW  66  48  68  53 /  20  10  40  70
PSC  69  49  67  53 /  10  10  50  60
YKM  65  44  59  45 /  10  30  70  70
HRI  69  43  66  51 /  10  10  50  70
ELN  64  45  60  45 /  10  60  80  80
RDM  60  40  66  46 /  10  10  50  80
LGD  60  41  64  50 /  60  10  20  50
GCD  61  40  64  48 /  20  10  20  50
DLS  66  48  62  52 /  10  30  70  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/79/79











000
FXUS66 KPDT 211144
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
445 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD AND EXIT THE AREA EARLY TODAY. RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT EXITING THIS MORNING WILL SEE
SHOWERS ON THE DECREASE OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO SPREAD
EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
5500-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY. RAIN SHADOWING WILL
DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN, AND YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROF WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE RAIN WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  EC-GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL SUNDAY
WHEN EC DEVELOPS A RIDGE AND GFS STAYS WITH WEAK TROF AND FLAT
WESTERLY FLOW.  WITH THIS SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE EXTREMES EXPECTED.


&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...LIFR AT KYKM DUE TO RADIATION FOG BURNING OFF
AROUND 16Z.  REST OF TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS.  OVC 5-10K
AGL OVERSPREADING AREA AFTER 00Z. HULL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67  45  69  53 /  20  10  40  70
ALW  66  48  68  53 /  20  10  40  70
PSC  69  49  67  53 /  10  10  50  60
YKM  65  44  59  45 /  10  30  70  70
HRI  69  43  66  51 /  10  10  50  70
ELN  64  45  60  45 /  10  60  80  80
RDM  60  40  66  46 /  10  10  50  80
LGD  60  41  64  50 /  60  10  20  50
GCD  61  40  64  48 /  20  10  20  50
DLS  66  48  62  52 /  10  30  70  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/79/79












000
FXUS66 KPDT 211144
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
445 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD AND EXIT THE AREA EARLY TODAY. RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT EXITING THIS MORNING WILL SEE
SHOWERS ON THE DECREASE OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO SPREAD
EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
5500-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY. RAIN SHADOWING WILL
DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN, AND YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROF WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE RAIN WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  EC-GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL SUNDAY
WHEN EC DEVELOPS A RIDGE AND GFS STAYS WITH WEAK TROF AND FLAT
WESTERLY FLOW.  WITH THIS SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE EXTREMES EXPECTED.


&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...LIFR AT KYKM DUE TO RADIATION FOG BURNING OFF
AROUND 16Z.  REST OF TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS.  OVC 5-10K
AGL OVERSPREADING AREA AFTER 00Z. HULL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67  45  69  53 /  20  10  40  70
ALW  66  48  68  53 /  20  10  40  70
PSC  69  49  67  53 /  10  10  50  60
YKM  65  44  59  45 /  10  30  70  70
HRI  69  43  66  51 /  10  10  50  70
ELN  64  45  60  45 /  10  60  80  80
RDM  60  40  66  46 /  10  10  50  80
LGD  60  41  64  50 /  60  10  20  50
GCD  61  40  64  48 /  20  10  20  50
DLS  66  48  62  52 /  10  30  70  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/79/79











000
FXUS66 KPDT 211144
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
445 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD AND EXIT THE AREA EARLY TODAY. RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT EXITING THIS MORNING WILL SEE
SHOWERS ON THE DECREASE OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO SPREAD
EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
5500-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY. RAIN SHADOWING WILL
DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN, AND YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROF WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE RAIN WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  EC-GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL SUNDAY
WHEN EC DEVELOPS A RIDGE AND GFS STAYS WITH WEAK TROF AND FLAT
WESTERLY FLOW.  WITH THIS SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE EXTREMES EXPECTED.


&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...LIFR AT KYKM DUE TO RADIATION FOG BURNING OFF
AROUND 16Z.  REST OF TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS.  OVC 5-10K
AGL OVERSPREADING AREA AFTER 00Z. HULL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67  45  69  53 /  20  10  40  70
ALW  66  48  68  53 /  20  10  40  70
PSC  69  49  67  53 /  10  10  50  60
YKM  65  44  59  45 /  10  30  70  70
HRI  69  43  66  51 /  10  10  50  70
ELN  64  45  60  45 /  10  60  80  80
RDM  60  40  66  46 /  10  10  50  80
LGD  60  41  64  50 /  60  10  20  50
GCD  61  40  64  48 /  20  10  20  50
DLS  66  48  62  52 /  10  30  70  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/79/79











000
FXUS66 KPDT 211144
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
445 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD AND EXIT THE AREA EARLY TODAY. RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT EXITING THIS MORNING WILL SEE
SHOWERS ON THE DECREASE OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO SPREAD
EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
5500-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY. RAIN SHADOWING WILL
DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN, AND YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROF WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE RAIN WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  EC-GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL SUNDAY
WHEN EC DEVELOPS A RIDGE AND GFS STAYS WITH WEAK TROF AND FLAT
WESTERLY FLOW.  WITH THIS SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE EXTREMES EXPECTED.


&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...LIFR AT KYKM DUE TO RADIATION FOG BURNING OFF
AROUND 16Z.  REST OF TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS.  OVC 5-10K
AGL OVERSPREADING AREA AFTER 00Z. HULL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67  45  69  53 /  20  10  40  70
ALW  66  48  68  53 /  20  10  40  70
PSC  69  49  67  53 /  10  10  50  60
YKM  65  44  59  45 /  10  30  70  70
HRI  69  43  66  51 /  10  10  50  70
ELN  64  45  60  45 /  10  60  80  80
RDM  60  40  66  46 /  10  10  50  80
LGD  60  41  64  50 /  60  10  20  50
GCD  61  40  64  48 /  20  10  20  50
DLS  66  48  62  52 /  10  30  70  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/79/79











000
FXUS66 KPDT 211144
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
445 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD AND EXIT THE AREA EARLY TODAY. RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT EXITING THIS MORNING WILL SEE
SHOWERS ON THE DECREASE OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO SPREAD
EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
5500-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY. RAIN SHADOWING WILL
DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN, AND YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROF WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE RAIN WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  EC-GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL SUNDAY
WHEN EC DEVELOPS A RIDGE AND GFS STAYS WITH WEAK TROF AND FLAT
WESTERLY FLOW.  WITH THIS SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE EXTREMES EXPECTED.


&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...LIFR AT KYKM DUE TO RADIATION FOG BURNING OFF
AROUND 16Z.  REST OF TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS.  OVC 5-10K
AGL OVERSPREADING AREA AFTER 00Z. HULL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67  45  69  53 /  20  10  40  70
ALW  66  48  68  53 /  20  10  40  70
PSC  69  49  67  53 /  10  10  50  60
YKM  65  44  59  45 /  10  30  70  70
HRI  69  43  66  51 /  10  10  50  70
ELN  64  45  60  45 /  10  60  80  80
RDM  60  40  66  46 /  10  10  50  80
LGD  60  41  64  50 /  60  10  20  50
GCD  61  40  64  48 /  20  10  20  50
DLS  66  48  62  52 /  10  30  70  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/79/79











000
FXUS66 KPQR 211052
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD...AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE CLAPS
OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT BASIN.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
SLOW MOVER...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND
PASS BY. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR THIS
SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RAIN
RETURNS TO THE COAST...REACHING INLAND LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SITES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. /27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING HIGH END SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS
45 TO 48 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW
GUSTS POP UP NEAR STORM FORCE...BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW STORM
FORCE CRITERIA FOR NOW AND WOULD LIKE ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE
DECIDING ON THAT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TONIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND
BECOME STEEPER TONIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 211052
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD...AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE CLAPS
OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT BASIN.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
SLOW MOVER...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND
PASS BY. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR THIS
SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RAIN
RETURNS TO THE COAST...REACHING INLAND LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SITES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. /27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING HIGH END SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS
45 TO 48 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW
GUSTS POP UP NEAR STORM FORCE...BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW STORM
FORCE CRITERIA FOR NOW AND WOULD LIKE ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE
DECIDING ON THAT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TONIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND
BECOME STEEPER TONIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 211052
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD...AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE CLAPS
OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT BASIN.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
SLOW MOVER...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND
PASS BY. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR THIS
SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RAIN
RETURNS TO THE COAST...REACHING INLAND LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SITES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. /27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING HIGH END SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS
45 TO 48 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW
GUSTS POP UP NEAR STORM FORCE...BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW STORM
FORCE CRITERIA FOR NOW AND WOULD LIKE ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE
DECIDING ON THAT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TONIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND
BECOME STEEPER TONIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 211052
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD...AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE CLAPS
OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT BASIN.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
SLOW MOVER...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND
PASS BY. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR THIS
SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RAIN
RETURNS TO THE COAST...REACHING INLAND LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SITES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. /27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING HIGH END SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS
45 TO 48 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW
GUSTS POP UP NEAR STORM FORCE...BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW STORM
FORCE CRITERIA FOR NOW AND WOULD LIKE ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE
DECIDING ON THAT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TONIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND
BECOME STEEPER TONIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPDT 210950
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
250 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD AND EXIT THE AREA EARLY TODAY. RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT EXITING THIS MORNING WILL SEE
SHOWERS ON THE DECREASE OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO SPREAD
EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
5500-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY. RAIN SHADOWING WILL
DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN, AND YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROF WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE RAIN WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  EC-GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL SUNDAY
WHEN EC DEVELOPS A RIDGE AND GFS STAYS WITH WEAK TROF AND FLAT
WESTERLY FLOW.  WITH THIS SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE EXTREMES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KALW AND KPDT
DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS. A TROUGH PASSAGE OVERNIGHT WILL USHER IN SOME
WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS ALONG WITH DECREASING LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67  45  69  53 /  20  10  40  70
ALW  66  48  68  53 /  20  10  40  70
PSC  69  49  67  53 /  10  10  50  60
YKM  65  44  59  45 /  10  30  70  70
HRI  69  43  66  51 /  10  10  50  70
ELN  64  45  60  45 /  10  60  80  80
RDM  60  40  66  46 /  10  10  50  80
LGD  60  41  64  50 /  60  10  20  50
GCD  61  40  64  48 /  20  10  20  50
DLS  66  48  62  52 /  10  30  70  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/79/79








000
FXUS66 KPDT 210950
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
250 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD AND EXIT THE AREA EARLY TODAY. RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT EXITING THIS MORNING WILL SEE
SHOWERS ON THE DECREASE OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO SPREAD
EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
5500-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY. RAIN SHADOWING WILL
DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN, AND YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROF WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE RAIN WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  EC-GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL SUNDAY
WHEN EC DEVELOPS A RIDGE AND GFS STAYS WITH WEAK TROF AND FLAT
WESTERLY FLOW.  WITH THIS SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE EXTREMES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KALW AND KPDT
DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS. A TROUGH PASSAGE OVERNIGHT WILL USHER IN SOME
WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS ALONG WITH DECREASING LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67  45  69  53 /  20  10  40  70
ALW  66  48  68  53 /  20  10  40  70
PSC  69  49  67  53 /  10  10  50  60
YKM  65  44  59  45 /  10  30  70  70
HRI  69  43  66  51 /  10  10  50  70
ELN  64  45  60  45 /  10  60  80  80
RDM  60  40  66  46 /  10  10  50  80
LGD  60  41  64  50 /  60  10  20  50
GCD  61  40  64  48 /  20  10  20  50
DLS  66  48  62  52 /  10  30  70  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/79/79









000
FXUS66 KPDT 210950
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
250 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD AND EXIT THE AREA EARLY TODAY. RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT EXITING THIS MORNING WILL SEE
SHOWERS ON THE DECREASE OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO SPREAD
EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
5500-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY. RAIN SHADOWING WILL
DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN, AND YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROF WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE RAIN WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  EC-GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL SUNDAY
WHEN EC DEVELOPS A RIDGE AND GFS STAYS WITH WEAK TROF AND FLAT
WESTERLY FLOW.  WITH THIS SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE EXTREMES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KALW AND KPDT
DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS. A TROUGH PASSAGE OVERNIGHT WILL USHER IN SOME
WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS ALONG WITH DECREASING LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67  45  69  53 /  20  10  40  70
ALW  66  48  68  53 /  20  10  40  70
PSC  69  49  67  53 /  10  10  50  60
YKM  65  44  59  45 /  10  30  70  70
HRI  69  43  66  51 /  10  10  50  70
ELN  64  45  60  45 /  10  60  80  80
RDM  60  40  66  46 /  10  10  50  80
LGD  60  41  64  50 /  60  10  20  50
GCD  61  40  64  48 /  20  10  20  50
DLS  66  48  62  52 /  10  30  70  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/79/79








000
FXUS66 KPDT 210950
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
250 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD AND EXIT THE AREA EARLY TODAY. RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT EXITING THIS MORNING WILL SEE
SHOWERS ON THE DECREASE OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO SPREAD
EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
5500-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY. RAIN SHADOWING WILL
DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN, AND YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROF WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE RAIN WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  EC-GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL SUNDAY
WHEN EC DEVELOPS A RIDGE AND GFS STAYS WITH WEAK TROF AND FLAT
WESTERLY FLOW.  WITH THIS SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE EXTREMES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KALW AND KPDT
DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS. A TROUGH PASSAGE OVERNIGHT WILL USHER IN SOME
WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS ALONG WITH DECREASING LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67  45  69  53 /  20  10  40  70
ALW  66  48  68  53 /  20  10  40  70
PSC  69  49  67  53 /  10  10  50  60
YKM  65  44  59  45 /  10  30  70  70
HRI  69  43  66  51 /  10  10  50  70
ELN  64  45  60  45 /  10  60  80  80
RDM  60  40  66  46 /  10  10  50  80
LGD  60  41  64  50 /  60  10  20  50
GCD  61  40  64  48 /  20  10  20  50
DLS  66  48  62  52 /  10  30  70  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/79/79









000
FXUS65 KBOI 210947
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
347 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDTIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALLEYS LOW END VFR WITH SHOWERS DECREASING AFTER 15Z.
MOUNTAINS WIDESPREAD MTNS OBSCURED AREAS MVFR CIG AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ABOVE 6500 FT AREAS IFR SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS...IMPROVING
AFTER 03Z. PATCHY IFR FOG EARLY WED...ALSO AFFECTING KMYL 10-15Z
WED. VFR PARTLY SUNNY AFTER 18Z WED. SURFACE WINDS NW AVERAGE
10-20 KTS...GUSTS TO 35KTS KTWF/KJER. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT UP TO
10KTS AFTER 06Z. WINDS ALOFT SW TO NW 20 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....VM



000
FXUS65 KBOI 210947
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
347 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDTIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALLEYS LOW END VFR WITH SHOWERS DECREASING AFTER 15Z.
MOUNTAINS WIDESPREAD MTNS OBSCURED AREAS MVFR CIG AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ABOVE 6500 FT AREAS IFR SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS...IMPROVING
AFTER 03Z. PATCHY IFR FOG EARLY WED...ALSO AFFECTING KMYL 10-15Z
WED. VFR PARTLY SUNNY AFTER 18Z WED. SURFACE WINDS NW AVERAGE
10-20 KTS...GUSTS TO 35KTS KTWF/KJER. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT UP TO
10KTS AFTER 06Z. WINDS ALOFT SW TO NW 20 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....VM



000
FXUS65 KBOI 210947
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
347 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDTIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALLEYS LOW END VFR WITH SHOWERS DECREASING AFTER 15Z.
MOUNTAINS WIDESPREAD MTNS OBSCURED AREAS MVFR CIG AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ABOVE 6500 FT AREAS IFR SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS...IMPROVING
AFTER 03Z. PATCHY IFR FOG EARLY WED...ALSO AFFECTING KMYL 10-15Z
WED. VFR PARTLY SUNNY AFTER 18Z WED. SURFACE WINDS NW AVERAGE
10-20 KTS...GUSTS TO 35KTS KTWF/KJER. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT UP TO
10KTS AFTER 06Z. WINDS ALOFT SW TO NW 20 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....VM



000
FXUS65 KBOI 210947
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
347 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDTIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALLEYS LOW END VFR WITH SHOWERS DECREASING AFTER 15Z.
MOUNTAINS WIDESPREAD MTNS OBSCURED AREAS MVFR CIG AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ABOVE 6500 FT AREAS IFR SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS...IMPROVING
AFTER 03Z. PATCHY IFR FOG EARLY WED...ALSO AFFECTING KMYL 10-15Z
WED. VFR PARTLY SUNNY AFTER 18Z WED. SURFACE WINDS NW AVERAGE
10-20 KTS...GUSTS TO 35KTS KTWF/KJER. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT UP TO
10KTS AFTER 06Z. WINDS ALOFT SW TO NW 20 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....VM



000
FXUS66 KMFR 210805
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
105 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...21/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE PROGRESSIVE WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE MEDFORD CWA WITH
MULTIPLE FRONTS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

ONE FRONT IS NOW DEPARTING THE MEDFORD CWA...LEAVING BEHIND
SHOWERS UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED EARLIER TONIGHT BUT THOSE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. THE
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE BREAK WILL BE BRIEF...AT LEAST ALONG THE
COAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 5500-6000 FEET...SO SNOW
WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE PASSES.

AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST...
BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING
FROM THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT.
THEREFORE...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE BUT IT WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO PROGRESS. IT WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INLAND
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO AS THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

EXPECT A LOT OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
COAST RANGE...1-2 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND 2-4 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HEAVIER RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT
IT WON`T DEVELOP OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO DOWNSLOPING. ONCE IT DOES THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD GET 0.25-0.50
INCHES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHTER AS THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS NEAR
AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND PEAKING OUT
BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE OTHER WINDY SPOT WILL BE THE SHASTA VALLEY...WHERE THEY WILL
LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS ARE MORE
WESTERLY...BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT WILL PEAK AT AROUND
-5.0 MB WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL INDUCE A STRONG WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE...REJUVENATING THE FRONT AND PUSHING IT ONSHORE FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO AROUND 130W ON
FRIDAY...AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE CAUSING THE
TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS...THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY...AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY...AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN
MAKER FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE
TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS...COAST...AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION...WE WEREN`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY HOWEVER. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT
HAS SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES.
-WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...21/06Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
AREAS OF MVFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT VFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND TUESDAY EVENING. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 PM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
LATE TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LOWER. BUT, SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND ABOVE 10
FEET. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH GALES LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE STRONGEST
FRONT OF THE WEEK SLOWLY MOVES EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT TO
GALE WINDS AND BUILDING WEST SWELL, VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A COMBINED HEIGHT OF 10 TO 13 FT ON TUESDAY
BUILDING TO 15 TO 17 FT WEDNESDAY.

THE HIGH AND STEEP WEST SWELL IS LIKELY TO BECOME DOMINANT AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
WATERS. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MAY FOLLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
        WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
        FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
        EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
        FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
        PZZ370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
        AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
        FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
        PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
        PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
        EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
        PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
        FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
        AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350.

$$

15/15/06





000
FXUS66 KMFR 210805
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
105 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...21/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE PROGRESSIVE WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE MEDFORD CWA WITH
MULTIPLE FRONTS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

ONE FRONT IS NOW DEPARTING THE MEDFORD CWA...LEAVING BEHIND
SHOWERS UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED EARLIER TONIGHT BUT THOSE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. THE
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE BREAK WILL BE BRIEF...AT LEAST ALONG THE
COAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 5500-6000 FEET...SO SNOW
WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE PASSES.

AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST...
BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING
FROM THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT.
THEREFORE...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE BUT IT WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO PROGRESS. IT WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INLAND
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO AS THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

EXPECT A LOT OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
COAST RANGE...1-2 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND 2-4 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HEAVIER RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT
IT WON`T DEVELOP OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO DOWNSLOPING. ONCE IT DOES THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD GET 0.25-0.50
INCHES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHTER AS THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS NEAR
AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND PEAKING OUT
BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE OTHER WINDY SPOT WILL BE THE SHASTA VALLEY...WHERE THEY WILL
LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS ARE MORE
WESTERLY...BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT WILL PEAK AT AROUND
-5.0 MB WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL INDUCE A STRONG WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE...REJUVENATING THE FRONT AND PUSHING IT ONSHORE FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO AROUND 130W ON
FRIDAY...AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE CAUSING THE
TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS...THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY...AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY...AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN
MAKER FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE
TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS...COAST...AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION...WE WEREN`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY HOWEVER. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT
HAS SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES.
-WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...21/06Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
AREAS OF MVFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT VFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND TUESDAY EVENING. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 PM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
LATE TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LOWER. BUT, SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND ABOVE 10
FEET. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH GALES LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE STRONGEST
FRONT OF THE WEEK SLOWLY MOVES EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT TO
GALE WINDS AND BUILDING WEST SWELL, VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A COMBINED HEIGHT OF 10 TO 13 FT ON TUESDAY
BUILDING TO 15 TO 17 FT WEDNESDAY.

THE HIGH AND STEEP WEST SWELL IS LIKELY TO BECOME DOMINANT AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
WATERS. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MAY FOLLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
        WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
        FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
        EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
        FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
        PZZ370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
        AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
        FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
        PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
        PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
        EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
        PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
        FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
        AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350.

$$

15/15/06




000
FXUS66 KPDT 210525
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1025 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING
ITS WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY IT
STRETCHES FROM THE HANFORD AREA SOUTH TO SOUTHERN OREGON.
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT IS BEING ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE
COMING ONTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF OREGON. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THEN EXIT THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
SEE RAIN SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT THUS HAVE INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. WITH THE FRONT EXITING EARLY TUESDAY WILL SEE
SHOWERS ON THE DECREASE OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LCL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KALW AND KPDT DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS. A
TROUGH PASSAGE OVERNIGHT WILL USHER IN SOME WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY
OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS ALONG WITH DECREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 450 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM.  THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OFFSHORE...AND A SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS PREVENTING THE TROUGH FROM SHIFTING EASTWARD.  THE TROUGH
IS SPLITTING WITH THE STRONGEST ENERGY OFF THE SW OREGON COAST.
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF THE CASCADES
AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  DUE
TO THE STRONGEST ENERGY TO THE SOUTH...THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND JOHN
DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 0.1"-0.25" OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT.  THE TROUGH WILL SWING TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES INTO
IDAHO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND SIMILAR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES AND WALLOWAS.  THERE WILL BE A
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 140-150W OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
TAP FROM THE REMAINS OF TYPHOON VONGFONG. RAIN WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO
SPREAD EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...AND WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
6000-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY.  48-HOUR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ARE AROUND
0.25"-0.75" WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WISTER

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS
OFF RATHER WET AND UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE 20/12Z ECMWF
AND 20/12Z GFS AGREE THAT A PLUME OF DEEP...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE POINTED AT THE PAC NW
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN...OR SNOW ABOVE 5000 TO 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHOULD TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY...PERHAPS LEADING TO A
SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION BRINGING INCREASES
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO
LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET DURING THIS TIME. FOLLOWING THIS
SYSTEM...WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER WEAK AND TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE.
77



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  47  65  44  67 /  90  20  10  50
ALW  51  65  48  66 / 100  20  10  40
PSC  49  67  46  65 /  90  10  10  60
YKM  43  62  44  59 /  20  10  30  80
HRI  47  67  44  66 /  90  10  10  60
ELN  44  63  44  57 /  20  10  60  90
RDM  37  60  40  63 /  20  10  10  60
LGD  44  58  39  60 /  90  60  10  30
GCD  43  57  40  63 /  90  20  10  20
DLS  49  66  47  62 /  20  10  30  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91






000
FXUS66 KPDT 210525
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1025 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING
ITS WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY IT
STRETCHES FROM THE HANFORD AREA SOUTH TO SOUTHERN OREGON.
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT IS BEING ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE
COMING ONTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF OREGON. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THEN EXIT THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
SEE RAIN SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT THUS HAVE INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. WITH THE FRONT EXITING EARLY TUESDAY WILL SEE
SHOWERS ON THE DECREASE OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LCL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KALW AND KPDT DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS. A
TROUGH PASSAGE OVERNIGHT WILL USHER IN SOME WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY
OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS ALONG WITH DECREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 450 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM.  THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OFFSHORE...AND A SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS PREVENTING THE TROUGH FROM SHIFTING EASTWARD.  THE TROUGH
IS SPLITTING WITH THE STRONGEST ENERGY OFF THE SW OREGON COAST.
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF THE CASCADES
AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  DUE
TO THE STRONGEST ENERGY TO THE SOUTH...THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND JOHN
DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 0.1"-0.25" OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT.  THE TROUGH WILL SWING TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES INTO
IDAHO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND SIMILAR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES AND WALLOWAS.  THERE WILL BE A
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 140-150W OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
TAP FROM THE REMAINS OF TYPHOON VONGFONG. RAIN WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO
SPREAD EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...AND WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
6000-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY.  48-HOUR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ARE AROUND
0.25"-0.75" WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WISTER

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS
OFF RATHER WET AND UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE 20/12Z ECMWF
AND 20/12Z GFS AGREE THAT A PLUME OF DEEP...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE POINTED AT THE PAC NW
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN...OR SNOW ABOVE 5000 TO 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHOULD TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY...PERHAPS LEADING TO A
SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION BRINGING INCREASES
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO
LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET DURING THIS TIME. FOLLOWING THIS
SYSTEM...WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER WEAK AND TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE.
77



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  47  65  44  67 /  90  20  10  50
ALW  51  65  48  66 / 100  20  10  40
PSC  49  67  46  65 /  90  10  10  60
YKM  43  62  44  59 /  20  10  30  80
HRI  47  67  44  66 /  90  10  10  60
ELN  44  63  44  57 /  20  10  60  90
RDM  37  60  40  63 /  20  10  10  60
LGD  44  58  39  60 /  90  60  10  30
GCD  43  57  40  63 /  90  20  10  20
DLS  49  66  47  62 /  20  10  30  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91







000
FXUS66 KMFR 210416
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
915 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...WITH THE COOL POOL LOFT THERE IS INSTABILITY OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE LIGHTNING ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE
ARE AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES STILL TO COME THROUGH HAVE ALREADY ADDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AN UPDATE. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO COOL THIS INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE WITH JUST SHOWERS
REMAINING LATE THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES.
A COOL POOL ALOFT IS ALREADY STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF CRESCENT CITY. A COUPLE OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OFFSHORE AND I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE SEE MORE STRIKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE COOL POOL ALOFT REACHES THE COAST. THE MODELS SUGGEST
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS
EVENING AND AT THE SAME TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, THEN WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WE`LL GET A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER. STILL COULD NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY COULD END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT`S IN THE FORECAST
IF THERE`S ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE GOOD IV TRANSPORT AIMED RIGHT
AT THE COAST RANGE. SO IT`S NO SURPRISE THE MODELS PUT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. IT`S A GOO BET 1-2
INCHES OR MORE WILL FALL IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST, SPECIFICALLY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WE MAY NOT GET ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST, SECOND WE`LL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. I DID KEEP IT
DRY IN THE MORNING AND PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTH COAST RANGE. ALSO, MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROGUE VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE COAST COULD
EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES AND 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CAL THURSDAY MORNING AND THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE COULD SEE IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, AT LEAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL RATES WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT.

NEXT WE`LL ADDRESS THE WINDS. WINDS NEAR WEED HAVE DECREASE OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING,
THEREFORE WE`LL BE CANCELING THE WIND ADVISORY. MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR
WARNING LEVELS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND
PEAKING OUT BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY WINDS WILL CRANK UP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY NEAR WEED AND
THEY ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS
ARE MORE WESTERLY, BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS. -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO AROUND 130W ON FRIDAY, AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE
CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE SPECIFICS, THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT, DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY, AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY, AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN MAKER
FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS, COAST, AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY, BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION, WE WEREN`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY, HOWEVER. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES. -WRIGHT


&&

.AVIATION...21/00Z TAF CYCLE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. THERE WILL BE LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS.
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
AREAS OF MVFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT VFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND TUESDAY EVENING. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 PM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK FRONT HAS BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL
PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
MEANWHILE, A LARGE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL REACH A PEAK THIS
EVENING AT AROUND 15 FEET.

LATE TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY LOWER. BUT, SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND ABOVE 10 FEET.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING WITH GALES LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALL
THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT TO GALE WINDS AND
BUILDING WEST SWELL, VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
COMBINED HEIGHT OF 10 TO 13 FT ON TUESDAY BUILDING TO 15 TO 17 FT
WEDNESDAY.

THE HIGH AND STEEP WEST SWELL IS LIKELY TO BECOME DOMINANT AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
WATERS. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MAY FOLLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
/DW


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.


PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR
     PZZ370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 210416
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
915 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...WITH THE COOL POOL LOFT THERE IS INSTABILITY OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE LIGHTNING ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE
ARE AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES STILL TO COME THROUGH HAVE ALREADY ADDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AN UPDATE. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO COOL THIS INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE WITH JUST SHOWERS
REMAINING LATE THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES.
A COOL POOL ALOFT IS ALREADY STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF CRESCENT CITY. A COUPLE OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OFFSHORE AND I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE SEE MORE STRIKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE COOL POOL ALOFT REACHES THE COAST. THE MODELS SUGGEST
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS
EVENING AND AT THE SAME TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, THEN WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WE`LL GET A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER. STILL COULD NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY COULD END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT`S IN THE FORECAST
IF THERE`S ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE GOOD IV TRANSPORT AIMED RIGHT
AT THE COAST RANGE. SO IT`S NO SURPRISE THE MODELS PUT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. IT`S A GOO BET 1-2
INCHES OR MORE WILL FALL IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST, SPECIFICALLY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WE MAY NOT GET ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST, SECOND WE`LL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. I DID KEEP IT
DRY IN THE MORNING AND PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTH COAST RANGE. ALSO, MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROGUE VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE COAST COULD
EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES AND 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CAL THURSDAY MORNING AND THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE COULD SEE IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, AT LEAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL RATES WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT.

NEXT WE`LL ADDRESS THE WINDS. WINDS NEAR WEED HAVE DECREASE OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING,
THEREFORE WE`LL BE CANCELING THE WIND ADVISORY. MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR
WARNING LEVELS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND
PEAKING OUT BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY WINDS WILL CRANK UP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY NEAR WEED AND
THEY ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS
ARE MORE WESTERLY, BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS. -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO AROUND 130W ON FRIDAY, AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE
CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE SPECIFICS, THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT, DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY, AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY, AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN MAKER
FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS, COAST, AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY, BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION, WE WEREN`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY, HOWEVER. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES. -WRIGHT


&&

.AVIATION...21/00Z TAF CYCLE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. THERE WILL BE LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS.
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
AREAS OF MVFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT VFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND TUESDAY EVENING. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 PM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK FRONT HAS BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL
PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
MEANWHILE, A LARGE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL REACH A PEAK THIS
EVENING AT AROUND 15 FEET.

LATE TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY LOWER. BUT, SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND ABOVE 10 FEET.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING WITH GALES LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALL
THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT TO GALE WINDS AND
BUILDING WEST SWELL, VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
COMBINED HEIGHT OF 10 TO 13 FT ON TUESDAY BUILDING TO 15 TO 17 FT
WEDNESDAY.

THE HIGH AND STEEP WEST SWELL IS LIKELY TO BECOME DOMINANT AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
WATERS. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MAY FOLLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
/DW


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.


PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR
     PZZ370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350.

$$









000
FXUS66 KMFR 210416
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
915 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...WITH THE COOL POOL LOFT THERE IS INSTABILITY OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE LIGHTNING ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE
ARE AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES STILL TO COME THROUGH HAVE ALREADY ADDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AN UPDATE. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO COOL THIS INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE WITH JUST SHOWERS
REMAINING LATE THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES.
A COOL POOL ALOFT IS ALREADY STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF CRESCENT CITY. A COUPLE OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OFFSHORE AND I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE SEE MORE STRIKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE COOL POOL ALOFT REACHES THE COAST. THE MODELS SUGGEST
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS
EVENING AND AT THE SAME TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, THEN WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WE`LL GET A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER. STILL COULD NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY COULD END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT`S IN THE FORECAST
IF THERE`S ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE GOOD IV TRANSPORT AIMED RIGHT
AT THE COAST RANGE. SO IT`S NO SURPRISE THE MODELS PUT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. IT`S A GOO BET 1-2
INCHES OR MORE WILL FALL IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST, SPECIFICALLY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WE MAY NOT GET ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST, SECOND WE`LL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. I DID KEEP IT
DRY IN THE MORNING AND PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTH COAST RANGE. ALSO, MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROGUE VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE COAST COULD
EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES AND 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CAL THURSDAY MORNING AND THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE COULD SEE IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, AT LEAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL RATES WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT.

NEXT WE`LL ADDRESS THE WINDS. WINDS NEAR WEED HAVE DECREASE OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING,
THEREFORE WE`LL BE CANCELING THE WIND ADVISORY. MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR
WARNING LEVELS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND
PEAKING OUT BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY WINDS WILL CRANK UP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY NEAR WEED AND
THEY ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS
ARE MORE WESTERLY, BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS. -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO AROUND 130W ON FRIDAY, AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE
CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE SPECIFICS, THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT, DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY, AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY, AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN MAKER
FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS, COAST, AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY, BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION, WE WEREN`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY, HOWEVER. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES. -WRIGHT


&&

.AVIATION...21/00Z TAF CYCLE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. THERE WILL BE LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS.
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
AREAS OF MVFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT VFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND TUESDAY EVENING. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 PM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK FRONT HAS BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL
PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
MEANWHILE, A LARGE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL REACH A PEAK THIS
EVENING AT AROUND 15 FEET.

LATE TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY LOWER. BUT, SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND ABOVE 10 FEET.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING WITH GALES LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALL
THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT TO GALE WINDS AND
BUILDING WEST SWELL, VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
COMBINED HEIGHT OF 10 TO 13 FT ON TUESDAY BUILDING TO 15 TO 17 FT
WEDNESDAY.

THE HIGH AND STEEP WEST SWELL IS LIKELY TO BECOME DOMINANT AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
WATERS. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MAY FOLLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
/DW


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.


PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR
     PZZ370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 210416
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
915 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...WITH THE COOL POOL LOFT THERE IS INSTABILITY OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE LIGHTNING ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE
ARE AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES STILL TO COME THROUGH HAVE ALREADY ADDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AN UPDATE. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO COOL THIS INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE WITH JUST SHOWERS
REMAINING LATE THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES.
A COOL POOL ALOFT IS ALREADY STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF CRESCENT CITY. A COUPLE OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OFFSHORE AND I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE SEE MORE STRIKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE COOL POOL ALOFT REACHES THE COAST. THE MODELS SUGGEST
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS
EVENING AND AT THE SAME TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, THEN WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WE`LL GET A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER. STILL COULD NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY COULD END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT`S IN THE FORECAST
IF THERE`S ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE GOOD IV TRANSPORT AIMED RIGHT
AT THE COAST RANGE. SO IT`S NO SURPRISE THE MODELS PUT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. IT`S A GOO BET 1-2
INCHES OR MORE WILL FALL IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST, SPECIFICALLY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WE MAY NOT GET ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST, SECOND WE`LL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. I DID KEEP IT
DRY IN THE MORNING AND PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTH COAST RANGE. ALSO, MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROGUE VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE COAST COULD
EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES AND 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CAL THURSDAY MORNING AND THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE COULD SEE IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, AT LEAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL RATES WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT.

NEXT WE`LL ADDRESS THE WINDS. WINDS NEAR WEED HAVE DECREASE OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING,
THEREFORE WE`LL BE CANCELING THE WIND ADVISORY. MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR
WARNING LEVELS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND
PEAKING OUT BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY WINDS WILL CRANK UP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY NEAR WEED AND
THEY ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS
ARE MORE WESTERLY, BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS. -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO AROUND 130W ON FRIDAY, AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE
CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE SPECIFICS, THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT, DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY, AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY, AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN MAKER
FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS, COAST, AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY, BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION, WE WEREN`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY, HOWEVER. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES. -WRIGHT


&&

.AVIATION...21/00Z TAF CYCLE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. THERE WILL BE LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS.
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
AREAS OF MVFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT VFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND TUESDAY EVENING. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 PM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK FRONT HAS BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL
PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
MEANWHILE, A LARGE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL REACH A PEAK THIS
EVENING AT AROUND 15 FEET.

LATE TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY LOWER. BUT, SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND ABOVE 10 FEET.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING WITH GALES LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALL
THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT TO GALE WINDS AND
BUILDING WEST SWELL, VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
COMBINED HEIGHT OF 10 TO 13 FT ON TUESDAY BUILDING TO 15 TO 17 FT
WEDNESDAY.

THE HIGH AND STEEP WEST SWELL IS LIKELY TO BECOME DOMINANT AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
WATERS. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MAY FOLLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
/DW


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.


PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR
     PZZ370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350.

$$









000
FXUS66 KPQR 210402
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
902 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA...SLOWLY SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THEN SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RATHER WET AND POSSIBLY WINDY FRONT IS
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH
WAS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING...AND THE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
PRODUCED A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE VALLEYS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT LIKELY AFFECTED TRAFFIC IN THE EVENING
COMMUTE AND ON AREA FREEWAYS. THE SHOWERS ARE EASING... BUT WILL
STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MOIST ENERGETIC SYSTEM APPROACHING 130W
THIS EVENING THAT HAS A 130 KT OR SO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC JET
PUSHING IT ALONG. THE MODELS SHOW THE OVERRUNNING CLOUD SHIELD
STARTING TO REACH THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING
TO SPREAD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS HUNG
UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF
OREGON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SAGS SOUTH THROUGH NORTHWEST
OREGON DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT...AND A STRONG 300 MB JET
IN ADDITION TO STRONG 850 MB INFLOW OR MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS. LOOK
FOR SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS...WITH THE MOST PRONE TO BE
FLASHY RIVERS LIKE THE GRAYS RIVER IN WAHKIAKUM COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. HOWEVER...THE FRONT DOES MOVE ENOUGH AS IT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THAT IT MAY KEEP MOST RIVERS FROM FLOODING.
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL PROBABLY BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...WHICH WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY...EXACERBATED BY THE
CURRENT CROP OF FALLING LEAVES PLUGGING STORM DRAINS.

THERE IS A GOOD WAVE OR POSSIBLE LOW CENTER THAT THE NAM12 AND GFS
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
HEADLANDS AND BEACHES FOR FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR
THIS.

THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING UP MUCH OF OUR AREA BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION GOING ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING PATTERN THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS SUCH...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF
THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LARGE
POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE
WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN THE SHOWERS TUE MORNING BEFORE THE RAIN RETURNS TO THE COAST
BY LATE MORNING WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CONDITIONS AT THE COAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE ON THE COAST WITH SURFACE WINDS LIKELY
GUSTING TO 40 KT AT TIMES TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
INLAND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIKELY BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TUE. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z.
&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING MAINLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UP TO
THE EXPECTED GALES BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE STRENGTH...SOME LOW END
GALES AND ONE OTHERS LIKE THE NAM IS SHOWING HIGHER END GALES TUE
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE NAM BRINGS ANOTHER LOW TO THE NORTH
OREGON COAST WED MORNING...THIS IS AN OUTLIER RIGHT NOW BUT BEARS
WATCHING GIVEN THE ACTIVE JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.  A COASTAL JET
IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING
WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND BECOME
STEEPER TUE NIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 210402
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
902 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA...SLOWLY SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THEN SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RATHER WET AND POSSIBLY WINDY FRONT IS
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH
WAS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING...AND THE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
PRODUCED A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE VALLEYS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT LIKELY AFFECTED TRAFFIC IN THE EVENING
COMMUTE AND ON AREA FREEWAYS. THE SHOWERS ARE EASING... BUT WILL
STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MOIST ENERGETIC SYSTEM APPROACHING 130W
THIS EVENING THAT HAS A 130 KT OR SO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC JET
PUSHING IT ALONG. THE MODELS SHOW THE OVERRUNNING CLOUD SHIELD
STARTING TO REACH THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING
TO SPREAD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS HUNG
UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF
OREGON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SAGS SOUTH THROUGH NORTHWEST
OREGON DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT...AND A STRONG 300 MB JET
IN ADDITION TO STRONG 850 MB INFLOW OR MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS. LOOK
FOR SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS...WITH THE MOST PRONE TO BE
FLASHY RIVERS LIKE THE GRAYS RIVER IN WAHKIAKUM COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. HOWEVER...THE FRONT DOES MOVE ENOUGH AS IT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THAT IT MAY KEEP MOST RIVERS FROM FLOODING.
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL PROBABLY BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...WHICH WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY...EXACERBATED BY THE
CURRENT CROP OF FALLING LEAVES PLUGGING STORM DRAINS.

THERE IS A GOOD WAVE OR POSSIBLE LOW CENTER THAT THE NAM12 AND GFS
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
HEADLANDS AND BEACHES FOR FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR
THIS.

THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING UP MUCH OF OUR AREA BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION GOING ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING PATTERN THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS SUCH...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF
THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LARGE
POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE
WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN THE SHOWERS TUE MORNING BEFORE THE RAIN RETURNS TO THE COAST
BY LATE MORNING WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CONDITIONS AT THE COAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE ON THE COAST WITH SURFACE WINDS LIKELY
GUSTING TO 40 KT AT TIMES TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
INLAND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIKELY BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TUE. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z.
&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING MAINLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UP TO
THE EXPECTED GALES BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE STRENGTH...SOME LOW END
GALES AND ONE OTHERS LIKE THE NAM IS SHOWING HIGHER END GALES TUE
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE NAM BRINGS ANOTHER LOW TO THE NORTH
OREGON COAST WED MORNING...THIS IS AN OUTLIER RIGHT NOW BUT BEARS
WATCHING GIVEN THE ACTIVE JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.  A COASTAL JET
IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING
WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND BECOME
STEEPER TUE NIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 210402
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
902 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA...SLOWLY SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THEN SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RATHER WET AND POSSIBLY WINDY FRONT IS
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH
WAS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING...AND THE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
PRODUCED A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE VALLEYS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT LIKELY AFFECTED TRAFFIC IN THE EVENING
COMMUTE AND ON AREA FREEWAYS. THE SHOWERS ARE EASING... BUT WILL
STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MOIST ENERGETIC SYSTEM APPROACHING 130W
THIS EVENING THAT HAS A 130 KT OR SO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC JET
PUSHING IT ALONG. THE MODELS SHOW THE OVERRUNNING CLOUD SHIELD
STARTING TO REACH THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING
TO SPREAD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS HUNG
UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF
OREGON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SAGS SOUTH THROUGH NORTHWEST
OREGON DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT...AND A STRONG 300 MB JET
IN ADDITION TO STRONG 850 MB INFLOW OR MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS. LOOK
FOR SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS...WITH THE MOST PRONE TO BE
FLASHY RIVERS LIKE THE GRAYS RIVER IN WAHKIAKUM COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. HOWEVER...THE FRONT DOES MOVE ENOUGH AS IT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THAT IT MAY KEEP MOST RIVERS FROM FLOODING.
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL PROBABLY BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...WHICH WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY...EXACERBATED BY THE
CURRENT CROP OF FALLING LEAVES PLUGGING STORM DRAINS.

THERE IS A GOOD WAVE OR POSSIBLE LOW CENTER THAT THE NAM12 AND GFS
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
HEADLANDS AND BEACHES FOR FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR
THIS.

THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING UP MUCH OF OUR AREA BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION GOING ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING PATTERN THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS SUCH...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF
THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LARGE
POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE
WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN THE SHOWERS TUE MORNING BEFORE THE RAIN RETURNS TO THE COAST
BY LATE MORNING WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CONDITIONS AT THE COAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE ON THE COAST WITH SURFACE WINDS LIKELY
GUSTING TO 40 KT AT TIMES TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
INLAND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIKELY BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TUE. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z.
&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING MAINLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UP TO
THE EXPECTED GALES BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE STRENGTH...SOME LOW END
GALES AND ONE OTHERS LIKE THE NAM IS SHOWING HIGHER END GALES TUE
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE NAM BRINGS ANOTHER LOW TO THE NORTH
OREGON COAST WED MORNING...THIS IS AN OUTLIER RIGHT NOW BUT BEARS
WATCHING GIVEN THE ACTIVE JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.  A COASTAL JET
IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING
WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND BECOME
STEEPER TUE NIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 210402
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
902 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA...SLOWLY SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THEN SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RATHER WET AND POSSIBLY WINDY FRONT IS
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH
WAS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING...AND THE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
PRODUCED A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE VALLEYS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT LIKELY AFFECTED TRAFFIC IN THE EVENING
COMMUTE AND ON AREA FREEWAYS. THE SHOWERS ARE EASING... BUT WILL
STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MOIST ENERGETIC SYSTEM APPROACHING 130W
THIS EVENING THAT HAS A 130 KT OR SO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC JET
PUSHING IT ALONG. THE MODELS SHOW THE OVERRUNNING CLOUD SHIELD
STARTING TO REACH THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING
TO SPREAD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS HUNG
UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF
OREGON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SAGS SOUTH THROUGH NORTHWEST
OREGON DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT...AND A STRONG 300 MB JET
IN ADDITION TO STRONG 850 MB INFLOW OR MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS. LOOK
FOR SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS...WITH THE MOST PRONE TO BE
FLASHY RIVERS LIKE THE GRAYS RIVER IN WAHKIAKUM COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. HOWEVER...THE FRONT DOES MOVE ENOUGH AS IT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THAT IT MAY KEEP MOST RIVERS FROM FLOODING.
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL PROBABLY BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...WHICH WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY...EXACERBATED BY THE
CURRENT CROP OF FALLING LEAVES PLUGGING STORM DRAINS.

THERE IS A GOOD WAVE OR POSSIBLE LOW CENTER THAT THE NAM12 AND GFS
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
HEADLANDS AND BEACHES FOR FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR
THIS.

THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING UP MUCH OF OUR AREA BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION GOING ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING PATTERN THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS SUCH...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF
THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LARGE
POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE
WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN THE SHOWERS TUE MORNING BEFORE THE RAIN RETURNS TO THE COAST
BY LATE MORNING WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CONDITIONS AT THE COAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE ON THE COAST WITH SURFACE WINDS LIKELY
GUSTING TO 40 KT AT TIMES TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
INLAND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIKELY BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TUE. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z.
&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING MAINLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UP TO
THE EXPECTED GALES BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE STRENGTH...SOME LOW END
GALES AND ONE OTHERS LIKE THE NAM IS SHOWING HIGHER END GALES TUE
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE NAM BRINGS ANOTHER LOW TO THE NORTH
OREGON COAST WED MORNING...THIS IS AN OUTLIER RIGHT NOW BUT BEARS
WATCHING GIVEN THE ACTIVE JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.  A COASTAL JET
IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING
WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND BECOME
STEEPER TUE NIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



000
FXUS66 KPDT 210310
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
810 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING
ITS WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY IT
STRETCHES FROM THE HANFORD AREA SOUTH TO SOUTHERN OREGON.
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT IS BEING ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE
COMING ONTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF OREGON. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THEN EXIT THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
SEE RAIN SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT THUS HAVE INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. WITH THE FRONT EXITING EARLY TUESDAY WILL SEE
SHOWERS ON THE DECREASE OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 450 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM.  THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OFFSHORE...AND A SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS PREVENTING THE TROUGH FROM SHIFTING EASTWARD.  THE TROUGH
IS SPLITTING WITH THE STRONGEST ENERGY OFF THE SW OREGON COAST.
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF THE CASCADES
AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  DUE
TO THE STRONGEST ENERGY TO THE SOUTH...THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND JOHN
DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 0.1"-0.25" OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT.  THE TROUGH WILL SWING TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES INTO
IDAHO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND SIMILAR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES AND WALLOWAS.  THERE WILL BE A
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 140-150W OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
TAP FROM THE REMAINS OF TYPHOON VONGFONG. RAIN WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO
SPREAD EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...AND WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
6000-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY.  48-HOUR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ARE AROUND
0.25"-0.75" WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WISTER

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS
OFF RATHER WET AND UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE 20/12Z ECMWF
AND 20/12Z GFS AGREE THAT A PLUME OF DEEP...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE POINTED AT THE PAC NW
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN...OR SNOW ABOVE 5000 TO 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHOULD TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY...PERHAPS LEADING TO A
SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION BRINGING INCREASES
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO
LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET DURING THIS TIME. FOLLOWING THIS
SYSTEM...WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER WEAK AND TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE.
77

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LCL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KYKM..KPSC..KALW AND
POSSIBLY KPDT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH INTERMITTENT -SHRA/-RA AND A BKN TO OVC CLOUD
DECK BETWEEN 4000-6000 FEET. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED AT KPSC
AND KPDT TO 15-25 KTS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY ALSO
INCREASE SOME FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AT KALW AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 21/04Z AT ALL TAF SITES. THEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN AFTER
21/18Z...GUSTS TO 15-25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  47  65  44  67 /  90  20  10  50
ALW  51  65  48  66 / 100  20  10  40
PSC  49  67  46  65 /  90  10  10  60
YKM  43  62  44  59 /  20  10  30  80
HRI  47  67  44  66 /  90  10  10  60
ELN  44  63  44  57 /  20  10  60  90
RDM  37  60  40  63 /  20  10  10  60
LGD  44  58  39  60 /  90  60  10  30
GCD  43  57  40  63 /  90  20  10  20
DLS  49  66  47  62 /  20  10  30  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91








000
FXUS66 KPDT 210310
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
810 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING
ITS WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY IT
STRETCHES FROM THE HANFORD AREA SOUTH TO SOUTHERN OREGON.
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT IS BEING ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE
COMING ONTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF OREGON. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THEN EXIT THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
SEE RAIN SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT THUS HAVE INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. WITH THE FRONT EXITING EARLY TUESDAY WILL SEE
SHOWERS ON THE DECREASE OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 450 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM.  THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OFFSHORE...AND A SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS PREVENTING THE TROUGH FROM SHIFTING EASTWARD.  THE TROUGH
IS SPLITTING WITH THE STRONGEST ENERGY OFF THE SW OREGON COAST.
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF THE CASCADES
AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  DUE
TO THE STRONGEST ENERGY TO THE SOUTH...THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND JOHN
DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 0.1"-0.25" OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT.  THE TROUGH WILL SWING TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES INTO
IDAHO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND SIMILAR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES AND WALLOWAS.  THERE WILL BE A
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 140-150W OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
TAP FROM THE REMAINS OF TYPHOON VONGFONG. RAIN WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO
SPREAD EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...AND WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
6000-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY.  48-HOUR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ARE AROUND
0.25"-0.75" WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WISTER

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS
OFF RATHER WET AND UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE 20/12Z ECMWF
AND 20/12Z GFS AGREE THAT A PLUME OF DEEP...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE POINTED AT THE PAC NW
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN...OR SNOW ABOVE 5000 TO 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHOULD TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY...PERHAPS LEADING TO A
SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION BRINGING INCREASES
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO
LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET DURING THIS TIME. FOLLOWING THIS
SYSTEM...WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER WEAK AND TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE.
77

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LCL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KYKM..KPSC..KALW AND
POSSIBLY KPDT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH INTERMITTENT -SHRA/-RA AND A BKN TO OVC CLOUD
DECK BETWEEN 4000-6000 FEET. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED AT KPSC
AND KPDT TO 15-25 KTS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY ALSO
INCREASE SOME FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AT KALW AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 21/04Z AT ALL TAF SITES. THEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN AFTER
21/18Z...GUSTS TO 15-25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  47  65  44  67 /  90  20  10  50
ALW  51  65  48  66 / 100  20  10  40
PSC  49  67  46  65 /  90  10  10  60
YKM  43  62  44  59 /  20  10  30  80
HRI  47  67  44  66 /  90  10  10  60
ELN  44  63  44  57 /  20  10  60  90
RDM  37  60  40  63 /  20  10  10  60
LGD  44  58  39  60 /  90  60  10  30
GCD  43  57  40  63 /  90  20  10  20
DLS  49  66  47  62 /  20  10  30  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91









000
FXUS66 KPDT 210310
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
810 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING
ITS WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY IT
STRETCHES FROM THE HANFORD AREA SOUTH TO SOUTHERN OREGON.
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT IS BEING ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE
COMING ONTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF OREGON. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THEN EXIT THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
SEE RAIN SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT THUS HAVE INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. WITH THE FRONT EXITING EARLY TUESDAY WILL SEE
SHOWERS ON THE DECREASE OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 450 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM.  THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OFFSHORE...AND A SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS PREVENTING THE TROUGH FROM SHIFTING EASTWARD.  THE TROUGH
IS SPLITTING WITH THE STRONGEST ENERGY OFF THE SW OREGON COAST.
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF THE CASCADES
AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  DUE
TO THE STRONGEST ENERGY TO THE SOUTH...THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND JOHN
DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 0.1"-0.25" OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT.  THE TROUGH WILL SWING TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES INTO
IDAHO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND SIMILAR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES AND WALLOWAS.  THERE WILL BE A
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 140-150W OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
TAP FROM THE REMAINS OF TYPHOON VONGFONG. RAIN WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO
SPREAD EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...AND WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
6000-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY.  48-HOUR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ARE AROUND
0.25"-0.75" WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WISTER

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS
OFF RATHER WET AND UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE 20/12Z ECMWF
AND 20/12Z GFS AGREE THAT A PLUME OF DEEP...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE POINTED AT THE PAC NW
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN...OR SNOW ABOVE 5000 TO 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHOULD TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY...PERHAPS LEADING TO A
SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION BRINGING INCREASES
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO
LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET DURING THIS TIME. FOLLOWING THIS
SYSTEM...WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER WEAK AND TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE.
77

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LCL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KYKM..KPSC..KALW AND
POSSIBLY KPDT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH INTERMITTENT -SHRA/-RA AND A BKN TO OVC CLOUD
DECK BETWEEN 4000-6000 FEET. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED AT KPSC
AND KPDT TO 15-25 KTS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY ALSO
INCREASE SOME FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AT KALW AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 21/04Z AT ALL TAF SITES. THEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN AFTER
21/18Z...GUSTS TO 15-25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  47  65  44  67 /  90  20  10  50
ALW  51  65  48  66 / 100  20  10  40
PSC  49  67  46  65 /  90  10  10  60
YKM  43  62  44  59 /  20  10  30  80
HRI  47  67  44  66 /  90  10  10  60
ELN  44  63  44  57 /  20  10  60  90
RDM  37  60  40  63 /  20  10  10  60
LGD  44  58  39  60 /  90  60  10  30
GCD  43  57  40  63 /  90  20  10  20
DLS  49  66  47  62 /  20  10  30  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91









000
FXUS65 KBOI 210305
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
905 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CA
THIS EVENING WAS SEEN BEST IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS. THE
18Z AND EARLY 00Z MODELS HAVE THE POSITION OF THE LOW WELL
INITIALIZED AND ARE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS FORECAST TRACK
AND TIMING FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL ID IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND GIVEN THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COULD EVEN SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
MTNS. PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM SE OREGON INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS.
THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING IN VICINITY OF THE
LOW WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL AND
BOISE MTNS. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON FRINGE
OF THE BEST DYNAMICS SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER.
WILL MAKE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z
WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z...
EXCEPT SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO S 5-15 KTS
BECOMING W 10-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SW UP TO 25 KTS BECOMING W UP TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
JUST COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL SWING ENE OVERNIGHT AND
PASS OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 06Z TO 18Z
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE A COLD SEASON SYSTEM...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SW IDAHO BETWEEN DAWN
AND NOON. WINDS WITH THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 30
KTS...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 KTS. WITH
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL
AIR...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS WED
RISING RIGHT BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LATE WED THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO ERN OREGON FROM THE SW AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS ALONG EXTREME NW HARNEY COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BAKER COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THE LOW
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW...PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO AND IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND
SOME TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DETAILS. FOR NOW...NEAR CLIMO POPS REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 210305
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
905 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CA
THIS EVENING WAS SEEN BEST IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS. THE
18Z AND EARLY 00Z MODELS HAVE THE POSITION OF THE LOW WELL
INITIALIZED AND ARE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS FORECAST TRACK
AND TIMING FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL ID IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND GIVEN THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COULD EVEN SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
MTNS. PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM SE OREGON INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS.
THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING IN VICINITY OF THE
LOW WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL AND
BOISE MTNS. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON FRINGE
OF THE BEST DYNAMICS SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER.
WILL MAKE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z
WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z...
EXCEPT SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO S 5-15 KTS
BECOMING W 10-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SW UP TO 25 KTS BECOMING W UP TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
JUST COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL SWING ENE OVERNIGHT AND
PASS OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 06Z TO 18Z
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE A COLD SEASON SYSTEM...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SW IDAHO BETWEEN DAWN
AND NOON. WINDS WITH THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 30
KTS...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 KTS. WITH
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL
AIR...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS WED
RISING RIGHT BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LATE WED THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO ERN OREGON FROM THE SW AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS ALONG EXTREME NW HARNEY COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BAKER COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THE LOW
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW...PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO AND IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND
SOME TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DETAILS. FOR NOW...NEAR CLIMO POPS REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 210305
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
905 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CA
THIS EVENING WAS SEEN BEST IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS. THE
18Z AND EARLY 00Z MODELS HAVE THE POSITION OF THE LOW WELL
INITIALIZED AND ARE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS FORECAST TRACK
AND TIMING FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL ID IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND GIVEN THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COULD EVEN SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
MTNS. PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM SE OREGON INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS.
THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING IN VICINITY OF THE
LOW WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL AND
BOISE MTNS. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON FRINGE
OF THE BEST DYNAMICS SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER.
WILL MAKE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z
WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z...
EXCEPT SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO S 5-15 KTS
BECOMING W 10-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SW UP TO 25 KTS BECOMING W UP TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
JUST COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL SWING ENE OVERNIGHT AND
PASS OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 06Z TO 18Z
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE A COLD SEASON SYSTEM...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SW IDAHO BETWEEN DAWN
AND NOON. WINDS WITH THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 30
KTS...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 KTS. WITH
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL
AIR...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS WED
RISING RIGHT BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LATE WED THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO ERN OREGON FROM THE SW AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS ALONG EXTREME NW HARNEY COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BAKER COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THE LOW
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW...PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO AND IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND
SOME TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DETAILS. FOR NOW...NEAR CLIMO POPS REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 210305
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
905 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CA
THIS EVENING WAS SEEN BEST IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS. THE
18Z AND EARLY 00Z MODELS HAVE THE POSITION OF THE LOW WELL
INITIALIZED AND ARE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS FORECAST TRACK
AND TIMING FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL ID IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND GIVEN THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COULD EVEN SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
MTNS. PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM SE OREGON INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS.
THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING IN VICINITY OF THE
LOW WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL AND
BOISE MTNS. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON FRINGE
OF THE BEST DYNAMICS SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER.
WILL MAKE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z
WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z...
EXCEPT SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO S 5-15 KTS
BECOMING W 10-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SW UP TO 25 KTS BECOMING W UP TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
JUST COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL SWING ENE OVERNIGHT AND
PASS OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 06Z TO 18Z
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE A COLD SEASON SYSTEM...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SW IDAHO BETWEEN DAWN
AND NOON. WINDS WITH THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 30
KTS...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 KTS. WITH
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL
AIR...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS WED
RISING RIGHT BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LATE WED THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO ERN OREGON FROM THE SW AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS ALONG EXTREME NW HARNEY COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BAKER COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THE LOW
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW...PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO AND IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND
SOME TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DETAILS. FOR NOW...NEAR CLIMO POPS REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 210305
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
905 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CA
THIS EVENING WAS SEEN BEST IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS. THE
18Z AND EARLY 00Z MODELS HAVE THE POSITION OF THE LOW WELL
INITIALIZED AND ARE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS FORECAST TRACK
AND TIMING FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL ID IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND GIVEN THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COULD EVEN SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
MTNS. PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM SE OREGON INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS.
THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING IN VICINITY OF THE
LOW WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL AND
BOISE MTNS. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON FRINGE
OF THE BEST DYNAMICS SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER.
WILL MAKE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z
WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z...
EXCEPT SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO S 5-15 KTS
BECOMING W 10-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SW UP TO 25 KTS BECOMING W UP TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
JUST COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL SWING ENE OVERNIGHT AND
PASS OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 06Z TO 18Z
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE A COLD SEASON SYSTEM...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SW IDAHO BETWEEN DAWN
AND NOON. WINDS WITH THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 30
KTS...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 KTS. WITH
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL
AIR...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS WED
RISING RIGHT BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LATE WED THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO ERN OREGON FROM THE SW AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS ALONG EXTREME NW HARNEY COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BAKER COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THE LOW
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW...PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO AND IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND
SOME TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DETAILS. FOR NOW...NEAR CLIMO POPS REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 210305
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
905 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CA
THIS EVENING WAS SEEN BEST IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS. THE
18Z AND EARLY 00Z MODELS HAVE THE POSITION OF THE LOW WELL
INITIALIZED AND ARE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS FORECAST TRACK
AND TIMING FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL ID IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND GIVEN THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COULD EVEN SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
MTNS. PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM SE OREGON INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS.
THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING IN VICINITY OF THE
LOW WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL AND
BOISE MTNS. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON FRINGE
OF THE BEST DYNAMICS SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER.
WILL MAKE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z
WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z...
EXCEPT SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO S 5-15 KTS
BECOMING W 10-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SW UP TO 25 KTS BECOMING W UP TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
JUST COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL SWING ENE OVERNIGHT AND
PASS OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 06Z TO 18Z
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE A COLD SEASON SYSTEM...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SW IDAHO BETWEEN DAWN
AND NOON. WINDS WITH THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 30
KTS...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 KTS. WITH
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL
AIR...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS WED
RISING RIGHT BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LATE WED THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO ERN OREGON FROM THE SW AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS ALONG EXTREME NW HARNEY COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BAKER COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THE LOW
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW...PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO AND IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND
SOME TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DETAILS. FOR NOW...NEAR CLIMO POPS REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 210305
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
905 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CA
THIS EVENING WAS SEEN BEST IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS. THE
18Z AND EARLY 00Z MODELS HAVE THE POSITION OF THE LOW WELL
INITIALIZED AND ARE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS FORECAST TRACK
AND TIMING FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL ID IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND GIVEN THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COULD EVEN SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
MTNS. PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM SE OREGON INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS.
THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING IN VICINITY OF THE
LOW WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL AND
BOISE MTNS. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON FRINGE
OF THE BEST DYNAMICS SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER.
WILL MAKE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z
WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z...
EXCEPT SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO S 5-15 KTS
BECOMING W 10-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SW UP TO 25 KTS BECOMING W UP TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
JUST COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL SWING ENE OVERNIGHT AND
PASS OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 06Z TO 18Z
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE A COLD SEASON SYSTEM...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SW IDAHO BETWEEN DAWN
AND NOON. WINDS WITH THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 30
KTS...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 KTS. WITH
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL
AIR...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS WED
RISING RIGHT BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LATE WED THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO ERN OREGON FROM THE SW AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS ALONG EXTREME NW HARNEY COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BAKER COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THE LOW
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW...PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO AND IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND
SOME TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DETAILS. FOR NOW...NEAR CLIMO POPS REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 210305
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
905 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CA
THIS EVENING WAS SEEN BEST IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS. THE
18Z AND EARLY 00Z MODELS HAVE THE POSITION OF THE LOW WELL
INITIALIZED AND ARE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS FORECAST TRACK
AND TIMING FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL ID IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND GIVEN THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COULD EVEN SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
MTNS. PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM SE OREGON INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS.
THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING IN VICINITY OF THE
LOW WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL AND
BOISE MTNS. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON FRINGE
OF THE BEST DYNAMICS SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER.
WILL MAKE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z
WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z...
EXCEPT SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO S 5-15 KTS
BECOMING W 10-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SW UP TO 25 KTS BECOMING W UP TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
JUST COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL SWING ENE OVERNIGHT AND
PASS OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 06Z TO 18Z
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE A COLD SEASON SYSTEM...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SW IDAHO BETWEEN DAWN
AND NOON. WINDS WITH THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 30
KTS...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 KTS. WITH
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL
AIR...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS WED
RISING RIGHT BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LATE WED THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO ERN OREGON FROM THE SW AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS ALONG EXTREME NW HARNEY COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BAKER COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THE LOW
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW...PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO AND IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND
SOME TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DETAILS. FOR NOW...NEAR CLIMO POPS REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH



000
FXUS66 KPDT 202356 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
450 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION


.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM.  THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OFFSHORE...AND A SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS PREVENTING THE TROUGH FROM SHIFTING EASTWARD.  THE TROUGH
IS SPLITTING WITH THE STRONGEST ENERGY OFF THE SW OREGON COAST.
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF THE CASCADES
AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  DUE
TO THE STRONGEST ENERGY TO THE SOUTH...THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND JOHN
DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 0.1"-0.25" OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT.  THE TROUGH WILL SWING TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES INTO
IDAHO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND SIMILAR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES AND WALLOWAS.  THERE WILL BE A
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 140-150W OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
TAP FROM THE REMAINS OF TYPHOON VONGFONG. RAIN WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO
SPREAD EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...AND WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
6000-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY.  48-HOUR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ARE AROUND
0.25"-0.75" WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WISTER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS
OFF RATHER WET AND UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE 20/12Z ECMWF
AND 20/12Z GFS AGREE THAT A PLUME OF DEEP...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE POINTED AT THE PAC NW
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN...OR SNOW ABOVE 5000 TO 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHOULD TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY...PERHAPS LEADING TO A
SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION BRINGING INCREASES
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO
LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET DURING THIS TIME. FOLLOWING THIS
SYSTEM...WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER WEAK AND TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE.
77


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LCL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KYKM..KPSC..KALW AND
POSSIBLY KPDT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH INTERMITTENT -SHRA/-RA AND A BKN TO OVC CLOUD
DECK BETWEEN 4000-6000 FEET. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED AT KPSC
AND KPDT TO 15-25 KTS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY ALSO
INCREASE SOME FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AT KALW AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 21/04Z AT ALL TAF SITES. THEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN AFTER
21/18Z...GUSTS TO 15-25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  63  44  67 /  60  30  10  50
ALW  50  64  48  66 /  60  30  10  40
PSC  49  67  46  65 /  50  10  10  60
YKM  42  62  44  59 /  40  10  30  80
HRI  47  66  44  66 /  50  20  10  60
ELN  44  62  44  57 /  50  10  60  90
RDM  35  59  40  63 /  60  10  10  60
LGD  44  58  39  60 /  70  50  10  30
GCD  42  57  40  63 /  70  20  10  20
DLS  47  65  47  62 /  60  20  30  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/77/77






000
FXUS66 KPDT 202356 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
450 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION


.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM.  THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OFFSHORE...AND A SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS PREVENTING THE TROUGH FROM SHIFTING EASTWARD.  THE TROUGH
IS SPLITTING WITH THE STRONGEST ENERGY OFF THE SW OREGON COAST.
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF THE CASCADES
AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  DUE
TO THE STRONGEST ENERGY TO THE SOUTH...THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND JOHN
DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 0.1"-0.25" OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT.  THE TROUGH WILL SWING TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES INTO
IDAHO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND SIMILAR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES AND WALLOWAS.  THERE WILL BE A
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 140-150W OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
TAP FROM THE REMAINS OF TYPHOON VONGFONG. RAIN WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO
SPREAD EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...AND WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
6000-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY.  48-HOUR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ARE AROUND
0.25"-0.75" WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WISTER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS
OFF RATHER WET AND UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE 20/12Z ECMWF
AND 20/12Z GFS AGREE THAT A PLUME OF DEEP...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE POINTED AT THE PAC NW
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN...OR SNOW ABOVE 5000 TO 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHOULD TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY...PERHAPS LEADING TO A
SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION BRINGING INCREASES
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO
LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET DURING THIS TIME. FOLLOWING THIS
SYSTEM...WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER WEAK AND TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE.
77


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LCL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KYKM..KPSC..KALW AND
POSSIBLY KPDT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH INTERMITTENT -SHRA/-RA AND A BKN TO OVC CLOUD
DECK BETWEEN 4000-6000 FEET. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED AT KPSC
AND KPDT TO 15-25 KTS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY ALSO
INCREASE SOME FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AT KALW AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 21/04Z AT ALL TAF SITES. THEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN AFTER
21/18Z...GUSTS TO 15-25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  63  44  67 /  60  30  10  50
ALW  50  64  48  66 /  60  30  10  40
PSC  49  67  46  65 /  50  10  10  60
YKM  42  62  44  59 /  40  10  30  80
HRI  47  66  44  66 /  50  20  10  60
ELN  44  62  44  57 /  50  10  60  90
RDM  35  59  40  63 /  60  10  10  60
LGD  44  58  39  60 /  70  50  10  30
GCD  42  57  40  63 /  70  20  10  20
DLS  47  65  47  62 /  60  20  30  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/77/77







000
FXUS66 KMFR 202157
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES. A COOL
POOL ALOFT IS ALREADY STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF CRESCENT CITY. A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OFFSHORE AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE
MORE STRIKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE COOL
POOL ALOFT REACHES THE COAST. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING AND AT
THE SAME TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, THEN WILL DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WE`LL
GET A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER. STILL COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY COULD END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT`S IN THE FORECAST IF THERE`S
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE GOOD IV TRANSPORT AIMED RIGHT
AT THE COAST RANGE. SO IT`S NO SURPRISE THE MODELS PUT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. IT`S A GOO BET 1-2
INCHES OR MORE WILL FALL IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST, SPECIFICALLY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WE MAY NOT GET ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST, SECOND WE`LL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. I DID KEEP IT
DRY IN THE MORNING AND PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTH COAST RANGE. ALSO, MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROGUE VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE COAST COULD
EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES AND 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CAL THURSDAY MORNING AND THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE COULD SEE IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, AT LEAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL RATES WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT.

NEXT WE`LL ADDRESS THE WINDS. WINDS NEAR WEED HAVE DECREASE OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING,
THEREFORE WE`LL BE CANCELING THE WIND ADVISORY. MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR
WARNING LEVELS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND
PEAKING OUT BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY WINDS WILL CRANK UP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY NEAR WEED AND
THEY ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS
ARE MORE WESTERLY, BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS. -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO AROUND 130W ON FRIDAY, AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE
CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE SPECIFICS, THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT, DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY, AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY, AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN MAKER
FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS, COAST, AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY, BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION, WE WEREN`T`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY, HOWEVER. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES. -WRIGHT


&&

.AVIATION...20/18Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VIS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR OUTSIDE SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WELL, BUT THE
THREAT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS. SHOWERS
DIMINISH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLEARING FOR SOME VALLEY FOG
AND LOW CLOUD WITH IFR CIGS/VIS TONIGHT AND SUBSEQUENT TAFS WILL
ADDRESS THIS. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WATERS TODAY, EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.  ALSO A HIGH
AND STEEP LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL IS BUILDING INTO THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AND WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS AROUND
14-16 FEET. A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 SECONDS IS EXPECTED WITH SEAS
TODAY BUT STEEP SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL MIX WITH LONGER PERIOD
SWELL AT TIMES. ALSO OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING,
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER. STEEP SEAS ABOVE 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY THOUGH.

THEN, THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THEN WIND MAY REACH
GALES ALONG WITH HEAVY SEAS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL, MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO SHOW AGREEMENT THAT GALES ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND CAPE BLANCO
NORTHWARD WITH THIS EVENT. SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WINDS APPROACHING
GALES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY. BUILDING WEST SWELL IS ALSO
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT OR
GALE WINDS AND BUILDING WEST SWELL, EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE WATERS
WILL EXPERIENCE VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW
SEAS REACHING 15 TO 17 FT WEDNESDAY. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.


PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 202157
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES. A COOL
POOL ALOFT IS ALREADY STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF CRESCENT CITY. A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OFFSHORE AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE
MORE STRIKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE COOL
POOL ALOFT REACHES THE COAST. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING AND AT
THE SAME TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, THEN WILL DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WE`LL
GET A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER. STILL COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY COULD END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT`S IN THE FORECAST IF THERE`S
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE GOOD IV TRANSPORT AIMED RIGHT
AT THE COAST RANGE. SO IT`S NO SURPRISE THE MODELS PUT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. IT`S A GOO BET 1-2
INCHES OR MORE WILL FALL IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST, SPECIFICALLY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WE MAY NOT GET ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST, SECOND WE`LL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. I DID KEEP IT
DRY IN THE MORNING AND PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTH COAST RANGE. ALSO, MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROGUE VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE COAST COULD
EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES AND 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CAL THURSDAY MORNING AND THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE COULD SEE IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, AT LEAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL RATES WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT.

NEXT WE`LL ADDRESS THE WINDS. WINDS NEAR WEED HAVE DECREASE OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING,
THEREFORE WE`LL BE CANCELING THE WIND ADVISORY. MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR
WARNING LEVELS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND
PEAKING OUT BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY WINDS WILL CRANK UP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY NEAR WEED AND
THEY ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS
ARE MORE WESTERLY, BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS. -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO AROUND 130W ON FRIDAY, AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE
CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE SPECIFICS, THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT, DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY, AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY, AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN MAKER
FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS, COAST, AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY, BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION, WE WEREN`T`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY, HOWEVER. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES. -WRIGHT


&&

.AVIATION...20/18Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VIS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR OUTSIDE SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WELL, BUT THE
THREAT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS. SHOWERS
DIMINISH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLEARING FOR SOME VALLEY FOG
AND LOW CLOUD WITH IFR CIGS/VIS TONIGHT AND SUBSEQUENT TAFS WILL
ADDRESS THIS. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WATERS TODAY, EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.  ALSO A HIGH
AND STEEP LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL IS BUILDING INTO THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AND WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS AROUND
14-16 FEET. A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 SECONDS IS EXPECTED WITH SEAS
TODAY BUT STEEP SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL MIX WITH LONGER PERIOD
SWELL AT TIMES. ALSO OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING,
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER. STEEP SEAS ABOVE 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY THOUGH.

THEN, THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THEN WIND MAY REACH
GALES ALONG WITH HEAVY SEAS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL, MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO SHOW AGREEMENT THAT GALES ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND CAPE BLANCO
NORTHWARD WITH THIS EVENT. SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WINDS APPROACHING
GALES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY. BUILDING WEST SWELL IS ALSO
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT OR
GALE WINDS AND BUILDING WEST SWELL, EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE WATERS
WILL EXPERIENCE VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW
SEAS REACHING 15 TO 17 FT WEDNESDAY. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.


PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 202157
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES. A COOL
POOL ALOFT IS ALREADY STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF CRESCENT CITY. A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OFFSHORE AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE
MORE STRIKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE COOL
POOL ALOFT REACHES THE COAST. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING AND AT
THE SAME TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, THEN WILL DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WE`LL
GET A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER. STILL COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY COULD END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT`S IN THE FORECAST IF THERE`S
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE GOOD IV TRANSPORT AIMED RIGHT
AT THE COAST RANGE. SO IT`S NO SURPRISE THE MODELS PUT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. IT`S A GOO BET 1-2
INCHES OR MORE WILL FALL IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST, SPECIFICALLY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WE MAY NOT GET ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST, SECOND WE`LL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. I DID KEEP IT
DRY IN THE MORNING AND PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTH COAST RANGE. ALSO, MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROGUE VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE COAST COULD
EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES AND 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CAL THURSDAY MORNING AND THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE COULD SEE IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, AT LEAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL RATES WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT.

NEXT WE`LL ADDRESS THE WINDS. WINDS NEAR WEED HAVE DECREASE OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING,
THEREFORE WE`LL BE CANCELING THE WIND ADVISORY. MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR
WARNING LEVELS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND
PEAKING OUT BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY WINDS WILL CRANK UP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY NEAR WEED AND
THEY ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS
ARE MORE WESTERLY, BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS. -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO AROUND 130W ON FRIDAY, AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE
CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE SPECIFICS, THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT, DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY, AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY, AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN MAKER
FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS, COAST, AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY, BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION, WE WEREN`T`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY, HOWEVER. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES. -WRIGHT


&&

.AVIATION...20/18Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VIS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR OUTSIDE SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WELL, BUT THE
THREAT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS. SHOWERS
DIMINISH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLEARING FOR SOME VALLEY FOG
AND LOW CLOUD WITH IFR CIGS/VIS TONIGHT AND SUBSEQUENT TAFS WILL
ADDRESS THIS. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WATERS TODAY, EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.  ALSO A HIGH
AND STEEP LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL IS BUILDING INTO THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AND WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS AROUND
14-16 FEET. A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 SECONDS IS EXPECTED WITH SEAS
TODAY BUT STEEP SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL MIX WITH LONGER PERIOD
SWELL AT TIMES. ALSO OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING,
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER. STEEP SEAS ABOVE 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY THOUGH.

THEN, THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THEN WIND MAY REACH
GALES ALONG WITH HEAVY SEAS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL, MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO SHOW AGREEMENT THAT GALES ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND CAPE BLANCO
NORTHWARD WITH THIS EVENT. SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WINDS APPROACHING
GALES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY. BUILDING WEST SWELL IS ALSO
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT OR
GALE WINDS AND BUILDING WEST SWELL, EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE WATERS
WILL EXPERIENCE VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW
SEAS REACHING 15 TO 17 FT WEDNESDAY. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.


PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 202157
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES. A COOL
POOL ALOFT IS ALREADY STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF CRESCENT CITY. A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OFFSHORE AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE
MORE STRIKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE COOL
POOL ALOFT REACHES THE COAST. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING AND AT
THE SAME TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, THEN WILL DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WE`LL
GET A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER. STILL COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY COULD END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT`S IN THE FORECAST IF THERE`S
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE GOOD IV TRANSPORT AIMED RIGHT
AT THE COAST RANGE. SO IT`S NO SURPRISE THE MODELS PUT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. IT`S A GOO BET 1-2
INCHES OR MORE WILL FALL IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST, SPECIFICALLY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WE MAY NOT GET ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST, SECOND WE`LL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. I DID KEEP IT
DRY IN THE MORNING AND PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTH COAST RANGE. ALSO, MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROGUE VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE COAST COULD
EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES AND 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CAL THURSDAY MORNING AND THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE COULD SEE IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, AT LEAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL RATES WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT.

NEXT WE`LL ADDRESS THE WINDS. WINDS NEAR WEED HAVE DECREASE OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING,
THEREFORE WE`LL BE CANCELING THE WIND ADVISORY. MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR
WARNING LEVELS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND
PEAKING OUT BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY WINDS WILL CRANK UP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY NEAR WEED AND
THEY ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS
ARE MORE WESTERLY, BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS. -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO AROUND 130W ON FRIDAY, AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE
CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE SPECIFICS, THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT, DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY, AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY, AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN MAKER
FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS, COAST, AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY, BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION, WE WEREN`T`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY, HOWEVER. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES. -WRIGHT


&&

.AVIATION...20/18Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VIS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR OUTSIDE SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WELL, BUT THE
THREAT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS. SHOWERS
DIMINISH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLEARING FOR SOME VALLEY FOG
AND LOW CLOUD WITH IFR CIGS/VIS TONIGHT AND SUBSEQUENT TAFS WILL
ADDRESS THIS. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WATERS TODAY, EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.  ALSO A HIGH
AND STEEP LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL IS BUILDING INTO THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AND WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS AROUND
14-16 FEET. A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 SECONDS IS EXPECTED WITH SEAS
TODAY BUT STEEP SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL MIX WITH LONGER PERIOD
SWELL AT TIMES. ALSO OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING,
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER. STEEP SEAS ABOVE 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY THOUGH.

THEN, THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THEN WIND MAY REACH
GALES ALONG WITH HEAVY SEAS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL, MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO SHOW AGREEMENT THAT GALES ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND CAPE BLANCO
NORTHWARD WITH THIS EVENT. SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WINDS APPROACHING
GALES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY. BUILDING WEST SWELL IS ALSO
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT OR
GALE WINDS AND BUILDING WEST SWELL, EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE WATERS
WILL EXPERIENCE VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW
SEAS REACHING 15 TO 17 FT WEDNESDAY. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.


PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 202157
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES. A COOL
POOL ALOFT IS ALREADY STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF CRESCENT CITY. A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OFFSHORE AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE
MORE STRIKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE COOL
POOL ALOFT REACHES THE COAST. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING AND AT
THE SAME TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, THEN WILL DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WE`LL
GET A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER. STILL COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY COULD END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT`S IN THE FORECAST IF THERE`S
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE GOOD IV TRANSPORT AIMED RIGHT
AT THE COAST RANGE. SO IT`S NO SURPRISE THE MODELS PUT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. IT`S A GOO BET 1-2
INCHES OR MORE WILL FALL IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST, SPECIFICALLY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WE MAY NOT GET ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST, SECOND WE`LL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. I DID KEEP IT
DRY IN THE MORNING AND PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTH COAST RANGE. ALSO, MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROGUE VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE COAST COULD
EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES AND 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CAL THURSDAY MORNING AND THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE COULD SEE IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, AT LEAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL RATES WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT.

NEXT WE`LL ADDRESS THE WINDS. WINDS NEAR WEED HAVE DECREASE OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING,
THEREFORE WE`LL BE CANCELING THE WIND ADVISORY. MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR
WARNING LEVELS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND
PEAKING OUT BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY WINDS WILL CRANK UP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY NEAR WEED AND
THEY ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS
ARE MORE WESTERLY, BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS. -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO AROUND 130W ON FRIDAY, AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE
CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE SPECIFICS, THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT, DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY, AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY, AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN MAKER
FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS, COAST, AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY, BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION, WE WEREN`T`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY, HOWEVER. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES. -WRIGHT


&&

.AVIATION...20/18Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VIS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR OUTSIDE SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WELL, BUT THE
THREAT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS. SHOWERS
DIMINISH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLEARING FOR SOME VALLEY FOG
AND LOW CLOUD WITH IFR CIGS/VIS TONIGHT AND SUBSEQUENT TAFS WILL
ADDRESS THIS. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WATERS TODAY, EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.  ALSO A HIGH
AND STEEP LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL IS BUILDING INTO THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AND WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS AROUND
14-16 FEET. A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 SECONDS IS EXPECTED WITH SEAS
TODAY BUT STEEP SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL MIX WITH LONGER PERIOD
SWELL AT TIMES. ALSO OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING,
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER. STEEP SEAS ABOVE 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY THOUGH.

THEN, THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THEN WIND MAY REACH
GALES ALONG WITH HEAVY SEAS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL, MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO SHOW AGREEMENT THAT GALES ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND CAPE BLANCO
NORTHWARD WITH THIS EVENT. SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WINDS APPROACHING
GALES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY. BUILDING WEST SWELL IS ALSO
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT OR
GALE WINDS AND BUILDING WEST SWELL, EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE WATERS
WILL EXPERIENCE VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW
SEAS REACHING 15 TO 17 FT WEDNESDAY. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.


PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350.

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 202156
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES. DECENT
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO
RESULT IN THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
BUT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
EVENING. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALSO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IS DIGGING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. AS SUCH...TUESDAY APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING
HAVING DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN RECENT RUNS. IS ALL... STILL
POTENTIALLY A PLEASANT DAY THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.

MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD PACIFIC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
GOOD AGAINST THE RECENT RUNS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR
PAST EVENTS PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER
CONFIDENCE OF TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME
RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE
AND THE S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT
FOR OUR MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT
OF THE WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL
OFFSHORE WITH A PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTLINE.
THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A BEACHES AND HEADLANDS FOCUS FOR THE
WINDS. THE SLIGHTLY INLAND COASTAL COMMUNITIES MAY GET A SHORT
PERIOD OF THE HIGHER WINDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER EXPOSURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. /JBONK


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MINIMAL
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING
POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...
MOST LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE S WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED...
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS FOR THE FRONT TO REACH THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR AROUND 3 AM
TUE NIGHT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE
NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 202156
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES. DECENT
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO
RESULT IN THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
BUT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
EVENING. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALSO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IS DIGGING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. AS SUCH...TUESDAY APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING
HAVING DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN RECENT RUNS. IS ALL... STILL
POTENTIALLY A PLEASANT DAY THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.

MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD PACIFIC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
GOOD AGAINST THE RECENT RUNS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR
PAST EVENTS PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER
CONFIDENCE OF TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME
RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE
AND THE S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT
FOR OUR MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT
OF THE WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL
OFFSHORE WITH A PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTLINE.
THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A BEACHES AND HEADLANDS FOCUS FOR THE
WINDS. THE SLIGHTLY INLAND COASTAL COMMUNITIES MAY GET A SHORT
PERIOD OF THE HIGHER WINDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER EXPOSURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. /JBONK


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MINIMAL
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING
POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...
MOST LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE S WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED...
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS FOR THE FRONT TO REACH THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR AROUND 3 AM
TUE NIGHT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE
NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 202156
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES. DECENT
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO
RESULT IN THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
BUT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
EVENING. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALSO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IS DIGGING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. AS SUCH...TUESDAY APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING
HAVING DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN RECENT RUNS. IS ALL... STILL
POTENTIALLY A PLEASANT DAY THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.

MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD PACIFIC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
GOOD AGAINST THE RECENT RUNS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR
PAST EVENTS PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER
CONFIDENCE OF TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME
RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE
AND THE S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT
FOR OUR MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT
OF THE WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL
OFFSHORE WITH A PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTLINE.
THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A BEACHES AND HEADLANDS FOCUS FOR THE
WINDS. THE SLIGHTLY INLAND COASTAL COMMUNITIES MAY GET A SHORT
PERIOD OF THE HIGHER WINDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER EXPOSURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. /JBONK


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MINIMAL
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING
POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...
MOST LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE S WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED...
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS FOR THE FRONT TO REACH THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR AROUND 3 AM
TUE NIGHT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE
NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 202156
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES. DECENT
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO
RESULT IN THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
BUT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
EVENING. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALSO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IS DIGGING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. AS SUCH...TUESDAY APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING
HAVING DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN RECENT RUNS. IS ALL... STILL
POTENTIALLY A PLEASANT DAY THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.

MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD PACIFIC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
GOOD AGAINST THE RECENT RUNS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR
PAST EVENTS PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER
CONFIDENCE OF TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME
RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE
AND THE S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT
FOR OUR MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT
OF THE WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL
OFFSHORE WITH A PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTLINE.
THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A BEACHES AND HEADLANDS FOCUS FOR THE
WINDS. THE SLIGHTLY INLAND COASTAL COMMUNITIES MAY GET A SHORT
PERIOD OF THE HIGHER WINDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER EXPOSURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. /JBONK


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MINIMAL
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING
POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...
MOST LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE S WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED...
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS FOR THE FRONT TO REACH THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR AROUND 3 AM
TUE NIGHT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE
NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 202156
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES. DECENT
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO
RESULT IN THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
BUT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
EVENING. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALSO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IS DIGGING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. AS SUCH...TUESDAY APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING
HAVING DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN RECENT RUNS. IS ALL... STILL
POTENTIALLY A PLEASANT DAY THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.

MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD PACIFIC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
GOOD AGAINST THE RECENT RUNS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR
PAST EVENTS PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER
CONFIDENCE OF TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME
RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE
AND THE S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT
FOR OUR MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT
OF THE WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL
OFFSHORE WITH A PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTLINE.
THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A BEACHES AND HEADLANDS FOCUS FOR THE
WINDS. THE SLIGHTLY INLAND COASTAL COMMUNITIES MAY GET A SHORT
PERIOD OF THE HIGHER WINDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER EXPOSURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. /JBONK


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MINIMAL
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING
POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...
MOST LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE S WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED...
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS FOR THE FRONT TO REACH THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR AROUND 3 AM
TUE NIGHT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE
NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 202156
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES. DECENT
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO
RESULT IN THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
BUT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
EVENING. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALSO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IS DIGGING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. AS SUCH...TUESDAY APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING
HAVING DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN RECENT RUNS. IS ALL... STILL
POTENTIALLY A PLEASANT DAY THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.

MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD PACIFIC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
GOOD AGAINST THE RECENT RUNS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR
PAST EVENTS PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER
CONFIDENCE OF TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME
RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE
AND THE S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT
FOR OUR MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT
OF THE WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL
OFFSHORE WITH A PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTLINE.
THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A BEACHES AND HEADLANDS FOCUS FOR THE
WINDS. THE SLIGHTLY INLAND COASTAL COMMUNITIES MAY GET A SHORT
PERIOD OF THE HIGHER WINDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER EXPOSURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. /JBONK


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MINIMAL
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING
POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...
MOST LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE S WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED...
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS FOR THE FRONT TO REACH THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR AROUND 3 AM
TUE NIGHT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE
NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 202156
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES. DECENT
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO
RESULT IN THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
BUT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
EVENING. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALSO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IS DIGGING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. AS SUCH...TUESDAY APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING
HAVING DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN RECENT RUNS. IS ALL... STILL
POTENTIALLY A PLEASANT DAY THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.

MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD PACIFIC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
GOOD AGAINST THE RECENT RUNS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR
PAST EVENTS PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER
CONFIDENCE OF TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME
RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE
AND THE S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT
FOR OUR MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT
OF THE WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL
OFFSHORE WITH A PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTLINE.
THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A BEACHES AND HEADLANDS FOCUS FOR THE
WINDS. THE SLIGHTLY INLAND COASTAL COMMUNITIES MAY GET A SHORT
PERIOD OF THE HIGHER WINDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER EXPOSURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. /JBONK


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MINIMAL
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING
POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...
MOST LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE S WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED...
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS FOR THE FRONT TO REACH THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR AROUND 3 AM
TUE NIGHT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE
NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 202156
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES. DECENT
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO
RESULT IN THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
BUT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
EVENING. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALSO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IS DIGGING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. AS SUCH...TUESDAY APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING
HAVING DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN RECENT RUNS. IS ALL... STILL
POTENTIALLY A PLEASANT DAY THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.

MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD PACIFIC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
GOOD AGAINST THE RECENT RUNS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR
PAST EVENTS PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER
CONFIDENCE OF TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME
RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE
AND THE S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT
FOR OUR MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT
OF THE WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL
OFFSHORE WITH A PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTLINE.
THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A BEACHES AND HEADLANDS FOCUS FOR THE
WINDS. THE SLIGHTLY INLAND COASTAL COMMUNITIES MAY GET A SHORT
PERIOD OF THE HIGHER WINDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER EXPOSURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. /JBONK


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MINIMAL
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING
POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...
MOST LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE S WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED...
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS FOR THE FRONT TO REACH THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR AROUND 3 AM
TUE NIGHT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE
NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPDT 202130
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM.  THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OFFSHORE...AND A SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS PREVENTING THE TROUGH FROM SHIFTING EASTWARD.  THE TROUGH
IS SPLITTING WITH THE STRONGEST ENERGY OFF THE SW OREGON COAST.
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF THE CASCADES
AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  DUE
TO THE STRONGEST ENERGY TO THE SOUTH...THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND JOHN
DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 0.1"-0.25" OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT.  THE TROUGH WILL SWING TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES INTO
IDAHO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND SIMILAR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES AND WALLOWAS.  THERE WILL BE A
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 140-150W OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
TAP FROM THE REMAINS OF TYPHOON VONGFONG. RAIN WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO
SPREAD EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...AND WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
6000-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY.  48-HOUR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ARE AROUND
0.25"-0.75" WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WISTER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS
OFF RATHER WET AND UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE 20/12Z ECMWF
AND 20/12Z GFS AGREE THAT A PLUME OF DEEP...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE POINTED AT THE PAC NW
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN...OR SNOW ABOVE 5000 TO 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHOULD TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY...PERHAPS LEADING TO A
SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION BRINGING INCREASES
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO
LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET DURING THIS TIME. FOLLOWING THIS
SYSTEM...WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER WEAK AND TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE. 77


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KDLS IN
-SHRA AND BR. OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT
INTERMITTENT -SHRA AND A BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000-7000
FEET STARTING THIS AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AFTER 21/02-04Z FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN TAF SITES. WESTERLY WINDS
MAY INCREASE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.
77


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  63  44  67 /  60  30  10  50
ALW  50  64  48  66 /  60  30  10  40
PSC  49  67  46  65 /  50  10  10  60
YKM  42  62  44  59 /  40  10  30  80
HRI  47  66  44  66 /  50  20  10  60
ELN  44  62  44  57 /  50  10  60  90
RDM  35  59  40  63 /  60  10  10  60
LGD  44  58  39  60 /  70  50  10  30
GCD  42  57  40  63 /  70  20  10  20
DLS  47  65  47  62 /  60  20  30  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/77/77












000
FXUS66 KPDT 202130
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM.  THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OFFSHORE...AND A SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS PREVENTING THE TROUGH FROM SHIFTING EASTWARD.  THE TROUGH
IS SPLITTING WITH THE STRONGEST ENERGY OFF THE SW OREGON COAST.
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF THE CASCADES
AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  DUE
TO THE STRONGEST ENERGY TO THE SOUTH...THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND JOHN
DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 0.1"-0.25" OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT.  THE TROUGH WILL SWING TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES INTO
IDAHO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND SIMILAR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES AND WALLOWAS.  THERE WILL BE A
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 140-150W OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
TAP FROM THE REMAINS OF TYPHOON VONGFONG. RAIN WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO
SPREAD EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...AND WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
6000-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY.  48-HOUR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ARE AROUND
0.25"-0.75" WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WISTER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS
OFF RATHER WET AND UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE 20/12Z ECMWF
AND 20/12Z GFS AGREE THAT A PLUME OF DEEP...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE POINTED AT THE PAC NW
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN...OR SNOW ABOVE 5000 TO 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHOULD TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY...PERHAPS LEADING TO A
SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION BRINGING INCREASES
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO
LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET DURING THIS TIME. FOLLOWING THIS
SYSTEM...WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER WEAK AND TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE. 77


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KDLS IN
-SHRA AND BR. OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT
INTERMITTENT -SHRA AND A BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000-7000
FEET STARTING THIS AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AFTER 21/02-04Z FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN TAF SITES. WESTERLY WINDS
MAY INCREASE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.
77


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  63  44  67 /  60  30  10  50
ALW  50  64  48  66 /  60  30  10  40
PSC  49  67  46  65 /  50  10  10  60
YKM  42  62  44  59 /  40  10  30  80
HRI  47  66  44  66 /  50  20  10  60
ELN  44  62  44  57 /  50  10  60  90
RDM  35  59  40  63 /  60  10  10  60
LGD  44  58  39  60 /  70  50  10  30
GCD  42  57  40  63 /  70  20  10  20
DLS  47  65  47  62 /  60  20  30  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/77/77












000
FXUS66 KPDT 202130
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM.  THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OFFSHORE...AND A SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS PREVENTING THE TROUGH FROM SHIFTING EASTWARD.  THE TROUGH
IS SPLITTING WITH THE STRONGEST ENERGY OFF THE SW OREGON COAST.
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF THE CASCADES
AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  DUE
TO THE STRONGEST ENERGY TO THE SOUTH...THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND JOHN
DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 0.1"-0.25" OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT.  THE TROUGH WILL SWING TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES INTO
IDAHO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND SIMILAR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES AND WALLOWAS.  THERE WILL BE A
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 140-150W OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
TAP FROM THE REMAINS OF TYPHOON VONGFONG. RAIN WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO
SPREAD EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...AND WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
6000-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY.  48-HOUR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ARE AROUND
0.25"-0.75" WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WISTER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS
OFF RATHER WET AND UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE 20/12Z ECMWF
AND 20/12Z GFS AGREE THAT A PLUME OF DEEP...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE POINTED AT THE PAC NW
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN...OR SNOW ABOVE 5000 TO 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHOULD TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY...PERHAPS LEADING TO A
SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION BRINGING INCREASES
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO
LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET DURING THIS TIME. FOLLOWING THIS
SYSTEM...WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER WEAK AND TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE. 77


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KDLS IN
-SHRA AND BR. OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT
INTERMITTENT -SHRA AND A BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000-7000
FEET STARTING THIS AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AFTER 21/02-04Z FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN TAF SITES. WESTERLY WINDS
MAY INCREASE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.
77


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  63  44  67 /  60  30  10  50
ALW  50  64  48  66 /  60  30  10  40
PSC  49  67  46  65 /  50  10  10  60
YKM  42  62  44  59 /  40  10  30  80
HRI  47  66  44  66 /  50  20  10  60
ELN  44  62  44  57 /  50  10  60  90
RDM  35  59  40  63 /  60  10  10  60
LGD  44  58  39  60 /  70  50  10  30
GCD  42  57  40  63 /  70  20  10  20
DLS  47  65  47  62 /  60  20  30  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/77/77












000
FXUS66 KPDT 202130
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM.  THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OFFSHORE...AND A SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS PREVENTING THE TROUGH FROM SHIFTING EASTWARD.  THE TROUGH
IS SPLITTING WITH THE STRONGEST ENERGY OFF THE SW OREGON COAST.
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF THE CASCADES
AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  DUE
TO THE STRONGEST ENERGY TO THE SOUTH...THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND JOHN
DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 0.1"-0.25" OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT.  THE TROUGH WILL SWING TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES INTO
IDAHO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND SIMILAR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES AND WALLOWAS.  THERE WILL BE A
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 140-150W OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
TAP FROM THE REMAINS OF TYPHOON VONGFONG. RAIN WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO
SPREAD EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...AND WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
6000-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY.  48-HOUR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ARE AROUND
0.25"-0.75" WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WISTER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS
OFF RATHER WET AND UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE 20/12Z ECMWF
AND 20/12Z GFS AGREE THAT A PLUME OF DEEP...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE POINTED AT THE PAC NW
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN...OR SNOW ABOVE 5000 TO 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHOULD TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY...PERHAPS LEADING TO A
SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION BRINGING INCREASES
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO
LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET DURING THIS TIME. FOLLOWING THIS
SYSTEM...WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER WEAK AND TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE. 77


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KDLS IN
-SHRA AND BR. OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT
INTERMITTENT -SHRA AND A BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000-7000
FEET STARTING THIS AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AFTER 21/02-04Z FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN TAF SITES. WESTERLY WINDS
MAY INCREASE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.
77


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  63  44  67 /  60  30  10  50
ALW  50  64  48  66 /  60  30  10  40
PSC  49  67  46  65 /  50  10  10  60
YKM  42  62  44  59 /  40  10  30  80
HRI  47  66  44  66 /  50  20  10  60
ELN  44  62  44  57 /  50  10  60  90
RDM  35  59  40  63 /  60  10  10  60
LGD  44  58  39  60 /  70  50  10  30
GCD  42  57  40  63 /  70  20  10  20
DLS  47  65  47  62 /  60  20  30  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/77/77












000
FXUS66 KPDT 202130
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM.  THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OFFSHORE...AND A SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS PREVENTING THE TROUGH FROM SHIFTING EASTWARD.  THE TROUGH
IS SPLITTING WITH THE STRONGEST ENERGY OFF THE SW OREGON COAST.
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF THE CASCADES
AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  DUE
TO THE STRONGEST ENERGY TO THE SOUTH...THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND JOHN
DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 0.1"-0.25" OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT.  THE TROUGH WILL SWING TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES INTO
IDAHO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND SIMILAR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES AND WALLOWAS.  THERE WILL BE A
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 140-150W OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
TAP FROM THE REMAINS OF TYPHOON VONGFONG. RAIN WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO
SPREAD EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...AND WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
6000-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY.  48-HOUR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ARE AROUND
0.25"-0.75" WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WISTER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS
OFF RATHER WET AND UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE 20/12Z ECMWF
AND 20/12Z GFS AGREE THAT A PLUME OF DEEP...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE POINTED AT THE PAC NW
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN...OR SNOW ABOVE 5000 TO 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHOULD TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY...PERHAPS LEADING TO A
SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION BRINGING INCREASES
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO
LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET DURING THIS TIME. FOLLOWING THIS
SYSTEM...WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER WEAK AND TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE. 77


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KDLS IN
-SHRA AND BR. OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT
INTERMITTENT -SHRA AND A BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000-7000
FEET STARTING THIS AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AFTER 21/02-04Z FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN TAF SITES. WESTERLY WINDS
MAY INCREASE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.
77


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  63  44  67 /  60  30  10  50
ALW  50  64  48  66 /  60  30  10  40
PSC  49  67  46  65 /  50  10  10  60
YKM  42  62  44  59 /  40  10  30  80
HRI  47  66  44  66 /  50  20  10  60
ELN  44  62  44  57 /  50  10  60  90
RDM  35  59  40  63 /  60  10  10  60
LGD  44  58  39  60 /  70  50  10  30
GCD  42  57  40  63 /  70  20  10  20
DLS  47  65  47  62 /  60  20  30  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/77/77












000
FXUS66 KPDT 202130
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM.  THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OFFSHORE...AND A SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS PREVENTING THE TROUGH FROM SHIFTING EASTWARD.  THE TROUGH
IS SPLITTING WITH THE STRONGEST ENERGY OFF THE SW OREGON COAST.
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF THE CASCADES
AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  DUE
TO THE STRONGEST ENERGY TO THE SOUTH...THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND JOHN
DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 0.1"-0.25" OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT.  THE TROUGH WILL SWING TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES INTO
IDAHO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND SIMILAR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES AND WALLOWAS.  THERE WILL BE A
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 140-150W OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
TAP FROM THE REMAINS OF TYPHOON VONGFONG. RAIN WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO
SPREAD EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...AND WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
6000-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY.  48-HOUR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ARE AROUND
0.25"-0.75" WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WISTER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS
OFF RATHER WET AND UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE 20/12Z ECMWF
AND 20/12Z GFS AGREE THAT A PLUME OF DEEP...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE POINTED AT THE PAC NW
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN...OR SNOW ABOVE 5000 TO 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHOULD TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY...PERHAPS LEADING TO A
SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION BRINGING INCREASES
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO
LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET DURING THIS TIME. FOLLOWING THIS
SYSTEM...WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER WEAK AND TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE. 77


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KDLS IN
-SHRA AND BR. OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT
INTERMITTENT -SHRA AND A BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000-7000
FEET STARTING THIS AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AFTER 21/02-04Z FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN TAF SITES. WESTERLY WINDS
MAY INCREASE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.
77


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  63  44  67 /  60  30  10  50
ALW  50  64  48  66 /  60  30  10  40
PSC  49  67  46  65 /  50  10  10  60
YKM  42  62  44  59 /  40  10  30  80
HRI  47  66  44  66 /  50  20  10  60
ELN  44  62  44  57 /  50  10  60  90
RDM  35  59  40  63 /  60  10  10  60
LGD  44  58  39  60 /  70  50  10  30
GCD  42  57  40  63 /  70  20  10  20
DLS  47  65  47  62 /  60  20  30  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/77/77












000
FXUS66 KPDT 202130
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM.  THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OFFSHORE...AND A SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS PREVENTING THE TROUGH FROM SHIFTING EASTWARD.  THE TROUGH
IS SPLITTING WITH THE STRONGEST ENERGY OFF THE SW OREGON COAST.
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF THE CASCADES
AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  DUE
TO THE STRONGEST ENERGY TO THE SOUTH...THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND JOHN
DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 0.1"-0.25" OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT.  THE TROUGH WILL SWING TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES INTO
IDAHO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND SIMILAR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES AND WALLOWAS.  THERE WILL BE A
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 140-150W OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
TAP FROM THE REMAINS OF TYPHOON VONGFONG. RAIN WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO
SPREAD EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...AND WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
6000-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY.  48-HOUR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ARE AROUND
0.25"-0.75" WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WISTER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS
OFF RATHER WET AND UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE 20/12Z ECMWF
AND 20/12Z GFS AGREE THAT A PLUME OF DEEP...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE POINTED AT THE PAC NW
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN...OR SNOW ABOVE 5000 TO 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHOULD TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY...PERHAPS LEADING TO A
SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION BRINGING INCREASES
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO
LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET DURING THIS TIME. FOLLOWING THIS
SYSTEM...WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER WEAK AND TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE. 77


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KDLS IN
-SHRA AND BR. OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT
INTERMITTENT -SHRA AND A BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000-7000
FEET STARTING THIS AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AFTER 21/02-04Z FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN TAF SITES. WESTERLY WINDS
MAY INCREASE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.
77


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  63  44  67 /  60  30  10  50
ALW  50  64  48  66 /  60  30  10  40
PSC  49  67  46  65 /  50  10  10  60
YKM  42  62  44  59 /  40  10  30  80
HRI  47  66  44  66 /  50  20  10  60
ELN  44  62  44  57 /  50  10  60  90
RDM  35  59  40  63 /  60  10  10  60
LGD  44  58  39  60 /  70  50  10  30
GCD  42  57  40  63 /  70  20  10  20
DLS  47  65  47  62 /  60  20  30  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/77/77












000
FXUS66 KPDT 202130
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM.  THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OFFSHORE...AND A SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS PREVENTING THE TROUGH FROM SHIFTING EASTWARD.  THE TROUGH
IS SPLITTING WITH THE STRONGEST ENERGY OFF THE SW OREGON COAST.
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF THE CASCADES
AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  DUE
TO THE STRONGEST ENERGY TO THE SOUTH...THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND JOHN
DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 0.1"-0.25" OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT.  THE TROUGH WILL SWING TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES INTO
IDAHO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND SIMILAR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES AND WALLOWAS.  THERE WILL BE A
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 140-150W OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
TAP FROM THE REMAINS OF TYPHOON VONGFONG. RAIN WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO
SPREAD EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...AND WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
6000-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY.  48-HOUR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ARE AROUND
0.25"-0.75" WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WISTER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS
OFF RATHER WET AND UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE 20/12Z ECMWF
AND 20/12Z GFS AGREE THAT A PLUME OF DEEP...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE POINTED AT THE PAC NW
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN...OR SNOW ABOVE 5000 TO 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHOULD TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY...PERHAPS LEADING TO A
SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION BRINGING INCREASES
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO
LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET DURING THIS TIME. FOLLOWING THIS
SYSTEM...WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER WEAK AND TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE. 77


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KDLS IN
-SHRA AND BR. OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT
INTERMITTENT -SHRA AND A BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000-7000
FEET STARTING THIS AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AFTER 21/02-04Z FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN TAF SITES. WESTERLY WINDS
MAY INCREASE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.
77


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  63  44  67 /  60  30  10  50
ALW  50  64  48  66 /  60  30  10  40
PSC  49  67  46  65 /  50  10  10  60
YKM  42  62  44  59 /  40  10  30  80
HRI  47  66  44  66 /  50  20  10  60
ELN  44  62  44  57 /  50  10  60  90
RDM  35  59  40  63 /  60  10  10  60
LGD  44  58  39  60 /  70  50  10  30
GCD  42  57  40  63 /  70  20  10  20
DLS  47  65  47  62 /  60  20  30  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/77/77












000
FXUS66 KPDT 202130
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM.  THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OFFSHORE...AND A SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS PREVENTING THE TROUGH FROM SHIFTING EASTWARD.  THE TROUGH
IS SPLITTING WITH THE STRONGEST ENERGY OFF THE SW OREGON COAST.
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF THE CASCADES
AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  DUE
TO THE STRONGEST ENERGY TO THE SOUTH...THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND JOHN
DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 0.1"-0.25" OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT.  THE TROUGH WILL SWING TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES INTO
IDAHO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND SIMILAR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES AND WALLOWAS.  THERE WILL BE A
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 140-150W OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
TAP FROM THE REMAINS OF TYPHOON VONGFONG. RAIN WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO
SPREAD EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...AND WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
6000-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY.  48-HOUR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ARE AROUND
0.25"-0.75" WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WISTER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS
OFF RATHER WET AND UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE 20/12Z ECMWF
AND 20/12Z GFS AGREE THAT A PLUME OF DEEP...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE POINTED AT THE PAC NW
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN...OR SNOW ABOVE 5000 TO 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHOULD TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY...PERHAPS LEADING TO A
SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION BRINGING INCREASES
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO
LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET DURING THIS TIME. FOLLOWING THIS
SYSTEM...WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER WEAK AND TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE. 77


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KDLS IN
-SHRA AND BR. OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT
INTERMITTENT -SHRA AND A BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000-7000
FEET STARTING THIS AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AFTER 21/02-04Z FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN TAF SITES. WESTERLY WINDS
MAY INCREASE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.
77


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  63  44  67 /  60  30  10  50
ALW  50  64  48  66 /  60  30  10  40
PSC  49  67  46  65 /  50  10  10  60
YKM  42  62  44  59 /  40  10  30  80
HRI  47  66  44  66 /  50  20  10  60
ELN  44  62  44  57 /  50  10  60  90
RDM  35  59  40  63 /  60  10  10  60
LGD  44  58  39  60 /  70  50  10  30
GCD  42  57  40  63 /  70  20  10  20
DLS  47  65  47  62 /  60  20  30  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/77/77












000
FXUS66 KPDT 202130
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM.  THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OFFSHORE...AND A SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS PREVENTING THE TROUGH FROM SHIFTING EASTWARD.  THE TROUGH
IS SPLITTING WITH THE STRONGEST ENERGY OFF THE SW OREGON COAST.
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF THE CASCADES
AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  DUE
TO THE STRONGEST ENERGY TO THE SOUTH...THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND JOHN
DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 0.1"-0.25" OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT.  THE TROUGH WILL SWING TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES INTO
IDAHO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND SIMILAR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES AND WALLOWAS.  THERE WILL BE A
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 140-150W OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
TAP FROM THE REMAINS OF TYPHOON VONGFONG. RAIN WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO
SPREAD EASTWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...AND WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
6000-6500 FEET ALONG THE CASCADES THURSDAY.  48-HOUR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ARE AROUND
0.25"-0.75" WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WISTER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS
OFF RATHER WET AND UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE 20/12Z ECMWF
AND 20/12Z GFS AGREE THAT A PLUME OF DEEP...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE POINTED AT THE PAC NW
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN...OR SNOW ABOVE 5000 TO 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHOULD TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY...PERHAPS LEADING TO A
SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION BRINGING INCREASES
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO
LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET DURING THIS TIME. FOLLOWING THIS
SYSTEM...WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER WEAK AND TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE. 77


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KDLS IN
-SHRA AND BR. OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT
INTERMITTENT -SHRA AND A BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000-7000
FEET STARTING THIS AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AFTER 21/02-04Z FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN TAF SITES. WESTERLY WINDS
MAY INCREASE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.
77


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  63  44  67 /  60  30  10  50
ALW  50  64  48  66 /  60  30  10  40
PSC  49  67  46  65 /  50  10  10  60
YKM  42  62  44  59 /  40  10  30  80
HRI  47  66  44  66 /  50  20  10  60
ELN  44  62  44  57 /  50  10  60  90
RDM  35  59  40  63 /  60  10  10  60
LGD  44  58  39  60 /  70  50  10  30
GCD  42  57  40  63 /  70  20  10  20
DLS  47  65  47  62 /  60  20  30  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/77/77











000
FXUS65 KBOI 202046
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
246 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
JUST COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL SWING ENE OVERNIGHT AND
PASS OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 06Z TO 18Z
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE A COLD SEASON SYSTEM...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SW IDAHO BETWEEN DAWN
AND NOON. WINDS WITH THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 30
KTS...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 KTS. WITH
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL
AIR...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS WED
RISING RIGHT BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LATE WED THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO ERN OREGON FROM THE SW AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS ALONG EXTREME NW HARNEY COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BAKER COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THE LOW
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW...PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO AND IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND
SOME TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DETAILS. FOR NOW...NEAR CLIMO POPS REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SW THROUGH SE
AHEAD OF FRONT...THEN...INCREASE AND TURN WNW BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE SSW 25-35KTS AHEAD OF FRONT AND W AT 15-25 KTS BEHIND.
EXPECT RAIN AHEAD OF AND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KMYL. KMYL SHOULD SEE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MVFR WITH BRIEF TIMES OF IFR TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....EP/WH
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS66 KPDT 201754 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1050 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014


.SHORT TERM...FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN
MADE.  A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND
WILL GRADUALLY TRACK EASTWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  WIDESPREAD
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADES...SO POPS WERE INCREASED FROM
80-90 PERCENT TO 100 PERCENT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES.  RAIN WILL
SPREAD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  THE MAIN ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
DIRECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OREGON TONIGHT...AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.1"-0.25" ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
BLUES AND THE JOHN DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, BUT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 6500 FEET OVER THE
CASCADES TO NEAR 8000 FEET OVER WALLOWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY WILL RUN BETWEEN 6000 AND 6500 FEET
AREAWIDE. THUS ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINS. MAY SEE SOME LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS TODAY WITH AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER GRANT
COUNTY THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LCL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KDLS IN -SHRA AND BR. OTHERWISE
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT INTERMITTENT -SHRA AND A
BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000-7000 FEET STARTING THIS AFTERNOON
FOR WESTERN TAF SITES THIS EVENING AFTER 21/02-04Z FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TAF SITES. WESTERLY WINDS MAY INCREASE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING
INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS. 77

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LONGWAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA SOUTHWARD TO NEARLY 30N
WILL AIM A LARGE PINEAPPLE EXPRESS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE WASHINGTON CASCADES BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER,
CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL OREGON WILL BE IN A RAIN SHADOWING SCENARIO
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE OREGON CASCADES. THE
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN LIKELY.
THURSDAY THE FRONT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN. ON
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA MORPHS INTO
A TROUGH THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST THUS SEND FRESH
MOISTURE AND RAIN INTO THE REGION.  POLAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  68  46  62  43 /  20  60  30  10
ALW  68  49  63  47 /  10  60  30  10
PSC  68  49  67  45 /  20  50  10  10
YKM  61  42  62  43 /  40  30  10  30
HRI  67  46  66  42 /  20  50  20  10
ELN  65  43  62  43 /  60  40  10  50
RDM  62  35  59  39 /  60  50  10  10
LGD  73  44  59  38 /  10  60  50  10
GCD  71  41  58  39 /  20  60  20  10
DLS  66  47  65  45 /  60  40  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/77







000
FXUS66 KMFR 201635
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
935 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST AND IS LOCATED OVER
THE CASCADES, BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL SHIFT EAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL END. HOWEVER COLD AIR ALOFT IS JUST OFFSHORE AND THAT
WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING INCREASING SHOWERS WEST
OF THE CASCADES. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXIST FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE WATERS AND COAST. ADDITIONALLY THE
MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
TO IT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE
CASCADES, SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR PARTS OF
LAKE, KLAMATH, MODOC AND EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE`LL CATCH A
RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OUR NEXT FOCUS
WILL BE A STRONGER AND WETTER FRONT IMPACTING OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. YESTERDAY THE MODELS SUGGESTED THE FRONT WAS
GOING TO GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA. NOW THE 12Z NAM AND GFS PUSH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, THUS RESULTING IN LESS
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...20/12Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT IS BRINGING LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN TO THE AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON THEN OUT OF THE AREA BY EVENING.  SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INLAND BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALONG THE COAST, WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS/VIS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z,  LIFTING TO VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR CIGS IN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN, TONIGHT EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. FOR INLAND AREAS...EXPECT AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS, AS WELL AS AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS, AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY PUSHES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  BEHIND THE FRONT, IN THE AFTERNOON EXPECT CIGS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS MOST THE AREA WITH ISOLATED MVFR CIGS IN
SHOWERS AND PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT EXPECT SHOWERS TO DECREASE AND
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY LOCATIONS, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WATERS TODAY, EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.  ALSO A HIGH
AND STEEP LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL IS BUILDING INTO THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AND WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS AROUND
14-16 FEET. A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 SECONDS IS EXPECTED WITH SEAS
TODAY BUT STEEP SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL MIX WITH LONGER PERIOD
SWELL AT TIMES. ALSO OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING,
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER. STEEP SEAS ABOVE 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY THOUGH.

THEN, THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THEN WIND MAY REACH
GALES ALONG WITH HEAVY SEAS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL, MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO SHOW AGREEMENT THAT GALES ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND CAPE BLANCO
NORTHWARD WITH THIS EVENT. SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WINDS APPROACHING
GALES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY. BUILDING WEST SWELL IS ALSO
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT OR
GALE WINDS AND BUILDING WEST SWELL, EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE WATERS
WILL EXPERIENCE VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW
SEAS REACHING 15 TO 17 FT WEDNESDAY. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH MEDFORD AT THIS
EARLY HOUR. IT DIDN`T TAKE LONG TO GET HERE AND WILL REACH THE
CASCADES BY MORNING, THEN MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS IN JUST A FEW HOURS AMOUNTED TO
0.75-1.25 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST, BUT AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH WERE
MUCH LESS. THE BAND OF STEADIER RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE ROGUE VALLEY BY MID-LATE MORNING AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
BREAK FOR AWHILE, BUT THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
IS GREATEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST, WHERE
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION TO MEDICINE
LAKE NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE NAM12 INDICATES AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
DUE TO COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT. WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY WILL
BE GUSTY TODAY, BUT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT. STILL COULD
SEE GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO EASTERN OREGON AND IDAHO, BUT MOIST,
ONSHORE FLOW MAY KEEP THEM GOING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES.
EXPECT A RELATIVE BREAK TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH.

ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE NEXT BIG RAIN-MAKER HEADED OUR WAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE`LL SEE A VERY WET SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM
THE PACIFIC TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVING ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
PUSHING INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NAEFS INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR
TRANSPORT (IVT) SHOWING +4 SD FROM THE MEAN INDICATING A HEALTHY
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE FRONTAL BAND OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH STEADY
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING AT THE COAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND WEDNESDAY, THEN
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BAND MOVES ONSHORE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH, SO WE`RE NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT SNOW,
BUT RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY WEST OF THE CASCADES. COASTAL AREAS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE 3-6 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY THURSDAY MORNING. SPILDE

LONG TERM...NO CHANGES...FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON`S AFD...THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY WILL BE A WET DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR AREA AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINS AIMED AT US AND A
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. THE FETCH OF THE MOISTURE AND THE FACT
THAT THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY MEANS THAT THERE MAY BE SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN ALONG THE CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS INTO THE
SISKIYOUS. THERE ARE ONLY SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF
BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS/GEM ON THURSDAY, BUT THE RAIN
SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. I
RAISED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY ON THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO CREEP BACK IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS/GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER VERY WET FRONT FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
MORE DIGGING AND A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INTO THE COAST.
IT ALSO TAKES THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IN NORTH OF US. THIS IS THE
SAME THING IT DID LAST WEEK WITH OUR WED/THU FRONT. GIVEN THAT THE
GFS/GEM HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THAN THE ECMWS WITH THIS WEEK`S
SYSTEMS, I`M INCLINED TO LEAN IN THEIR DIRECTION FOR THE ACTION
LATER THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THUS I`VE ALSO RAISED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$







000
FXUS66 KMFR 201635
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
935 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST AND IS LOCATED OVER
THE CASCADES, BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL SHIFT EAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL END. HOWEVER COLD AIR ALOFT IS JUST OFFSHORE AND THAT
WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING INCREASING SHOWERS WEST
OF THE CASCADES. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXIST FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE WATERS AND COAST. ADDITIONALLY THE
MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
TO IT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE
CASCADES, SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR PARTS OF
LAKE, KLAMATH, MODOC AND EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE`LL CATCH A
RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OUR NEXT FOCUS
WILL BE A STRONGER AND WETTER FRONT IMPACTING OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. YESTERDAY THE MODELS SUGGESTED THE FRONT WAS
GOING TO GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA. NOW THE 12Z NAM AND GFS PUSH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, THUS RESULTING IN LESS
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...20/12Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT IS BRINGING LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN TO THE AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON THEN OUT OF THE AREA BY EVENING.  SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INLAND BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALONG THE COAST, WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS/VIS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z,  LIFTING TO VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR CIGS IN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN, TONIGHT EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. FOR INLAND AREAS...EXPECT AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS, AS WELL AS AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS, AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY PUSHES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  BEHIND THE FRONT, IN THE AFTERNOON EXPECT CIGS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS MOST THE AREA WITH ISOLATED MVFR CIGS IN
SHOWERS AND PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT EXPECT SHOWERS TO DECREASE AND
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY LOCATIONS, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WATERS TODAY, EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.  ALSO A HIGH
AND STEEP LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL IS BUILDING INTO THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AND WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS AROUND
14-16 FEET. A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 SECONDS IS EXPECTED WITH SEAS
TODAY BUT STEEP SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL MIX WITH LONGER PERIOD
SWELL AT TIMES. ALSO OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING,
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER. STEEP SEAS ABOVE 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY THOUGH.

THEN, THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THEN WIND MAY REACH
GALES ALONG WITH HEAVY SEAS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL, MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO SHOW AGREEMENT THAT GALES ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND CAPE BLANCO
NORTHWARD WITH THIS EVENT. SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WINDS APPROACHING
GALES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY. BUILDING WEST SWELL IS ALSO
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT OR
GALE WINDS AND BUILDING WEST SWELL, EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE WATERS
WILL EXPERIENCE VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW
SEAS REACHING 15 TO 17 FT WEDNESDAY. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH MEDFORD AT THIS
EARLY HOUR. IT DIDN`T TAKE LONG TO GET HERE AND WILL REACH THE
CASCADES BY MORNING, THEN MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS IN JUST A FEW HOURS AMOUNTED TO
0.75-1.25 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST, BUT AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH WERE
MUCH LESS. THE BAND OF STEADIER RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE ROGUE VALLEY BY MID-LATE MORNING AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
BREAK FOR AWHILE, BUT THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
IS GREATEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST, WHERE
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION TO MEDICINE
LAKE NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE NAM12 INDICATES AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
DUE TO COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT. WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY WILL
BE GUSTY TODAY, BUT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT. STILL COULD
SEE GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO EASTERN OREGON AND IDAHO, BUT MOIST,
ONSHORE FLOW MAY KEEP THEM GOING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES.
EXPECT A RELATIVE BREAK TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH.

ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE NEXT BIG RAIN-MAKER HEADED OUR WAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE`LL SEE A VERY WET SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM
THE PACIFIC TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVING ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
PUSHING INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NAEFS INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR
TRANSPORT (IVT) SHOWING +4 SD FROM THE MEAN INDICATING A HEALTHY
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE FRONTAL BAND OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH STEADY
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING AT THE COAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND WEDNESDAY, THEN
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BAND MOVES ONSHORE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH, SO WE`RE NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT SNOW,
BUT RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY WEST OF THE CASCADES. COASTAL AREAS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE 3-6 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY THURSDAY MORNING. SPILDE

LONG TERM...NO CHANGES...FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON`S AFD...THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY WILL BE A WET DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR AREA AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINS AIMED AT US AND A
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. THE FETCH OF THE MOISTURE AND THE FACT
THAT THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY MEANS THAT THERE MAY BE SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN ALONG THE CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS INTO THE
SISKIYOUS. THERE ARE ONLY SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF
BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS/GEM ON THURSDAY, BUT THE RAIN
SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. I
RAISED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY ON THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO CREEP BACK IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS/GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER VERY WET FRONT FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
MORE DIGGING AND A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INTO THE COAST.
IT ALSO TAKES THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IN NORTH OF US. THIS IS THE
SAME THING IT DID LAST WEEK WITH OUR WED/THU FRONT. GIVEN THAT THE
GFS/GEM HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THAN THE ECMWS WITH THIS WEEK`S
SYSTEMS, I`M INCLINED TO LEAN IN THEIR DIRECTION FOR THE ACTION
LATER THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THUS I`VE ALSO RAISED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$






000
FXUS66 KPQR 201631
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
931 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY...MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES BY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG
COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG
THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED
JUST WEST OF I-5 WITH RAIN BANDS TO THE EAST TRANSITIONING TO
SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST. ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.
STILL APPEARS THAT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN OUTSIDE THREAT OF SEEING
ONE DEVELOP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE WAS TO PUSH THE TEXT WORDING OVER TO POST FRONTAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WORDING.

AN EARLY LOOK AT MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN
ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD AGAINST
THE RECENT OBS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR PAST EVENTS
PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER CONFIDENCE OF
TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AS MENTIONED BELOW AND IN OUR
SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS...ITS TIME TO ENSURE DRAINS AND CULVERTS ARE
READY TO RECEIVE A PROLONGED SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE AND
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. UPDATED GRIDS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB WITH TEXT
PRODUCTS TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 226 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS INCHING ITS
WAY EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON EARLY THIS
MORNING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING
AND HAS SPREAD AS FAR INLAND AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
THE CASCADES THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING A LITTLE HEAVIER AS
ANOTHER VORTMAX TRAVELS NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND
INLAND BY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH IT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT RATHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SLOWER TIMING LIMITS
INSTABILITY A BIT...KEEPING MOST CONVECTION RATHER SHALLOW. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST.

00Z NAM SHOWS SOME DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND RESIDUAL
DEFORMATION AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...
WHICH COULD KEEP DECENT SHOWER COVERAGE INTO THE THE EVENING HOURS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE COLD
POOL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...850 MB TEMPS GET
DOWN TO AROUND +3 DEG C WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AROUND 544
DECAMETERS TUE MORNING. THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
GETTING MUCH BELOW 6000 FEET...AND BY THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASING ANYWAY. PERHAPS SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORTS WILL GET A
DUSTING OF SNOW BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.

TUESDAY MAY ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT DAY ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD DRY
THINGS OUT FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ASIDE FROM THE NORTH COAST.
EUGENE AND MUCH OF LANE COUNTY MAY BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S...PERHAPS
EVEN MAKING A RUN FOR 70 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS.

MEANWHILE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...WITH
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WOULD IN
TURN SLOW THE FRONT FURTHER. DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR S WA/N OR COAST ZONES.
MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE AND WHEN LOWS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...
BUT AS AN EXAMPLE THE 06Z NAM DEVELOPS A 994 MB LOW WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COASTAL JET PRODUCING 950 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 60-65 KT
AS FAR SOUTH AS NEWPORT BY MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THEN THE 06Z NAM HAS
AN ADDITIONAL 998 MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY WED AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 50 KT+ WINDS AT 950 MB ALONG THE OREGON COAST.
FOR NOW SUFFICE IT TO SAY THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST...PARTICULARLY THE BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS...TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH A DEEPENING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DEVELOPING AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS IMPRESSIVE IN ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND IT SHOWS IN THE MODEL QPF. WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
STRONG AT TIMES FOR SOUTH-FAVORED SLOPES. FOR NOW...OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME RAIN
TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE AND THE
S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT FOR OUR
MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT OF THE
WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.WEAGLE

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
TAIL END OF OUR MIDWEEK RAIN EVENT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD
SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE
RIDGING PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
MONTHS. AS SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE...
KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...WITH FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY INLAND TODAY PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE
MORE DOMINANT TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF RAINFALL AND
SHOWERS. EXPECT MTNS/PASSES TO BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
FREQUENT TONIGHT AFTER 02Z.
&&

.MARINE...S WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ASHORE THIS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA INTO TUE...WITH
THE MAIN THREAT OF WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE COMING IN
AREAS OF SHOWERS. W SWELL OF 10 TO 14 FT AROUND 15 SEC IS EXPECTED
TO ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE.

WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH GALE FORCE
THROUGHOUT THE WATERS FROM TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TUE
NIGHT...UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES SE INTO THE WATERS. THE WESTERLY
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...BUT SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE NIGHT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY GALES. SEAS MAY APPROACH 20 FT TUE NIGHT...MOST LIKELY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 201631
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
931 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY...MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES BY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG
COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG
THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED
JUST WEST OF I-5 WITH RAIN BANDS TO THE EAST TRANSITIONING TO
SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST. ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.
STILL APPEARS THAT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN OUTSIDE THREAT OF SEEING
ONE DEVELOP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE WAS TO PUSH THE TEXT WORDING OVER TO POST FRONTAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WORDING.

AN EARLY LOOK AT MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN
ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD AGAINST
THE RECENT OBS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR PAST EVENTS
PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER CONFIDENCE OF
TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AS MENTIONED BELOW AND IN OUR
SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS...ITS TIME TO ENSURE DRAINS AND CULVERTS ARE
READY TO RECEIVE A PROLONGED SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE AND
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. UPDATED GRIDS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB WITH TEXT
PRODUCTS TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 226 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS INCHING ITS
WAY EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON EARLY THIS
MORNING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING
AND HAS SPREAD AS FAR INLAND AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
THE CASCADES THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING A LITTLE HEAVIER AS
ANOTHER VORTMAX TRAVELS NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND
INLAND BY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH IT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT RATHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SLOWER TIMING LIMITS
INSTABILITY A BIT...KEEPING MOST CONVECTION RATHER SHALLOW. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST.

00Z NAM SHOWS SOME DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND RESIDUAL
DEFORMATION AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...
WHICH COULD KEEP DECENT SHOWER COVERAGE INTO THE THE EVENING HOURS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE COLD
POOL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...850 MB TEMPS GET
DOWN TO AROUND +3 DEG C WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AROUND 544
DECAMETERS TUE MORNING. THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
GETTING MUCH BELOW 6000 FEET...AND BY THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASING ANYWAY. PERHAPS SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORTS WILL GET A
DUSTING OF SNOW BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.

TUESDAY MAY ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT DAY ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD DRY
THINGS OUT FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ASIDE FROM THE NORTH COAST.
EUGENE AND MUCH OF LANE COUNTY MAY BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S...PERHAPS
EVEN MAKING A RUN FOR 70 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS.

MEANWHILE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...WITH
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WOULD IN
TURN SLOW THE FRONT FURTHER. DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR S WA/N OR COAST ZONES.
MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE AND WHEN LOWS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...
BUT AS AN EXAMPLE THE 06Z NAM DEVELOPS A 994 MB LOW WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COASTAL JET PRODUCING 950 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 60-65 KT
AS FAR SOUTH AS NEWPORT BY MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THEN THE 06Z NAM HAS
AN ADDITIONAL 998 MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY WED AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 50 KT+ WINDS AT 950 MB ALONG THE OREGON COAST.
FOR NOW SUFFICE IT TO SAY THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST...PARTICULARLY THE BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS...TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH A DEEPENING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DEVELOPING AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS IMPRESSIVE IN ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND IT SHOWS IN THE MODEL QPF. WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
STRONG AT TIMES FOR SOUTH-FAVORED SLOPES. FOR NOW...OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME RAIN
TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE AND THE
S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT FOR OUR
MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT OF THE
WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.WEAGLE

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
TAIL END OF OUR MIDWEEK RAIN EVENT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD
SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE
RIDGING PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
MONTHS. AS SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE...
KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...WITH FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY INLAND TODAY PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE
MORE DOMINANT TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF RAINFALL AND
SHOWERS. EXPECT MTNS/PASSES TO BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
FREQUENT TONIGHT AFTER 02Z.
&&

.MARINE...S WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ASHORE THIS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA INTO TUE...WITH
THE MAIN THREAT OF WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE COMING IN
AREAS OF SHOWERS. W SWELL OF 10 TO 14 FT AROUND 15 SEC IS EXPECTED
TO ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE.

WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH GALE FORCE
THROUGHOUT THE WATERS FROM TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TUE
NIGHT...UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES SE INTO THE WATERS. THE WESTERLY
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...BUT SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE NIGHT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY GALES. SEAS MAY APPROACH 20 FT TUE NIGHT...MOST LIKELY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 201631
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
931 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY...MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES BY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG
COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG
THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED
JUST WEST OF I-5 WITH RAIN BANDS TO THE EAST TRANSITIONING TO
SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST. ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.
STILL APPEARS THAT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN OUTSIDE THREAT OF SEEING
ONE DEVELOP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE WAS TO PUSH THE TEXT WORDING OVER TO POST FRONTAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WORDING.

AN EARLY LOOK AT MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN
ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD AGAINST
THE RECENT OBS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR PAST EVENTS
PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER CONFIDENCE OF
TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AS MENTIONED BELOW AND IN OUR
SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS...ITS TIME TO ENSURE DRAINS AND CULVERTS ARE
READY TO RECEIVE A PROLONGED SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE AND
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. UPDATED GRIDS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB WITH TEXT
PRODUCTS TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 226 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS INCHING ITS
WAY EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON EARLY THIS
MORNING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING
AND HAS SPREAD AS FAR INLAND AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
THE CASCADES THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING A LITTLE HEAVIER AS
ANOTHER VORTMAX TRAVELS NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND
INLAND BY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH IT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT RATHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SLOWER TIMING LIMITS
INSTABILITY A BIT...KEEPING MOST CONVECTION RATHER SHALLOW. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST.

00Z NAM SHOWS SOME DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND RESIDUAL
DEFORMATION AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...
WHICH COULD KEEP DECENT SHOWER COVERAGE INTO THE THE EVENING HOURS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE COLD
POOL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...850 MB TEMPS GET
DOWN TO AROUND +3 DEG C WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AROUND 544
DECAMETERS TUE MORNING. THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
GETTING MUCH BELOW 6000 FEET...AND BY THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASING ANYWAY. PERHAPS SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORTS WILL GET A
DUSTING OF SNOW BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.

TUESDAY MAY ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT DAY ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD DRY
THINGS OUT FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ASIDE FROM THE NORTH COAST.
EUGENE AND MUCH OF LANE COUNTY MAY BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S...PERHAPS
EVEN MAKING A RUN FOR 70 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS.

MEANWHILE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...WITH
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WOULD IN
TURN SLOW THE FRONT FURTHER. DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR S WA/N OR COAST ZONES.
MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE AND WHEN LOWS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...
BUT AS AN EXAMPLE THE 06Z NAM DEVELOPS A 994 MB LOW WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COASTAL JET PRODUCING 950 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 60-65 KT
AS FAR SOUTH AS NEWPORT BY MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THEN THE 06Z NAM HAS
AN ADDITIONAL 998 MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY WED AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 50 KT+ WINDS AT 950 MB ALONG THE OREGON COAST.
FOR NOW SUFFICE IT TO SAY THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST...PARTICULARLY THE BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS...TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH A DEEPENING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DEVELOPING AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS IMPRESSIVE IN ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND IT SHOWS IN THE MODEL QPF. WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
STRONG AT TIMES FOR SOUTH-FAVORED SLOPES. FOR NOW...OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME RAIN
TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE AND THE
S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT FOR OUR
MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT OF THE
WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.WEAGLE

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
TAIL END OF OUR MIDWEEK RAIN EVENT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD
SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE
RIDGING PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
MONTHS. AS SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE...
KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...WITH FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY INLAND TODAY PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE
MORE DOMINANT TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF RAINFALL AND
SHOWERS. EXPECT MTNS/PASSES TO BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
FREQUENT TONIGHT AFTER 02Z.
&&

.MARINE...S WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ASHORE THIS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA INTO TUE...WITH
THE MAIN THREAT OF WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE COMING IN
AREAS OF SHOWERS. W SWELL OF 10 TO 14 FT AROUND 15 SEC IS EXPECTED
TO ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE.

WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH GALE FORCE
THROUGHOUT THE WATERS FROM TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TUE
NIGHT...UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES SE INTO THE WATERS. THE WESTERLY
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...BUT SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE NIGHT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY GALES. SEAS MAY APPROACH 20 FT TUE NIGHT...MOST LIKELY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS65 KBOI 201536
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
936 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS STILL SET TO BE
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...FALLING AROUND 20 DEGREES TO
BECOME 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT...WITH AMOUNTS OF NEAR A QUARTER INCH IN THE VALLEY AND
A HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST WINDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY. UPDATE OUT BY 1030 AM MDT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD
WEST TO EAST. ISOLATED IFR CIGS TOMORROW IN SHOWERS. SFC WINDS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT 10-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SE OREGON TONIGHT
AND SW IDAHO TOMORROW BY NOON...SWITCHING WINDS TO WEST TO
NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN SE OREGON
ESPECIALLY NEAR KBNO AND KBKE. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SW 20-25 KTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST 20-30 KTS TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....VM



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201536
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
936 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS STILL SET TO BE
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...FALLING AROUND 20 DEGREES TO
BECOME 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT...WITH AMOUNTS OF NEAR A QUARTER INCH IN THE VALLEY AND
A HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST WINDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY. UPDATE OUT BY 1030 AM MDT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD
WEST TO EAST. ISOLATED IFR CIGS TOMORROW IN SHOWERS. SFC WINDS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT 10-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SE OREGON TONIGHT
AND SW IDAHO TOMORROW BY NOON...SWITCHING WINDS TO WEST TO
NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN SE OREGON
ESPECIALLY NEAR KBNO AND KBKE. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SW 20-25 KTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST 20-30 KTS TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....VM



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201536
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
936 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS STILL SET TO BE
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...FALLING AROUND 20 DEGREES TO
BECOME 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT...WITH AMOUNTS OF NEAR A QUARTER INCH IN THE VALLEY AND
A HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST WINDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY. UPDATE OUT BY 1030 AM MDT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD
WEST TO EAST. ISOLATED IFR CIGS TOMORROW IN SHOWERS. SFC WINDS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT 10-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SE OREGON TONIGHT
AND SW IDAHO TOMORROW BY NOON...SWITCHING WINDS TO WEST TO
NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN SE OREGON
ESPECIALLY NEAR KBNO AND KBKE. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SW 20-25 KTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST 20-30 KTS TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....VM



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201536
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
936 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS STILL SET TO BE
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...FALLING AROUND 20 DEGREES TO
BECOME 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT...WITH AMOUNTS OF NEAR A QUARTER INCH IN THE VALLEY AND
A HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST WINDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY. UPDATE OUT BY 1030 AM MDT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD
WEST TO EAST. ISOLATED IFR CIGS TOMORROW IN SHOWERS. SFC WINDS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT 10-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SE OREGON TONIGHT
AND SW IDAHO TOMORROW BY NOON...SWITCHING WINDS TO WEST TO
NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN SE OREGON
ESPECIALLY NEAR KBNO AND KBKE. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SW 20-25 KTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST 20-30 KTS TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....VM



000
FXUS66 KPDT 201527
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
830 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN
MADE.  A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND
WILL GRADUALLY TRACK EASTWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  WIDESPREAD
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADES...SO POPS WERE INCREASED FROM
80-90 PERCENT TO 100 PERCENT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES.  RAIN WILL
SPREAD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  THE MAIN ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
DIRECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OREGON TONIGHT...AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.1"-0.25" ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
BLUES AND THE JOHN DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, BUT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 6500 FEET OVER THE
CASCADES TO NEAR 8000 FEET OVER WALLOWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY WILL RUN BETWEEN 6000 AND 6500 FEET
AREAWIDE. THUS ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINS. MAY SEE SOME LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS TODAY WITH AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER GRANT
COUNTY THIS EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LONGWAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA SOUTHWARD TO NEARLY 30N
WILL AIM A LARGE PINEAPPLE EXPRESS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE WASHINGTON CASCADES BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER,
CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL OREGON WILL BE IN A RAIN SHADOWING SCENARIO
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE OREGON CASCADES. THE
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN LIKELY.
THURSDAY THE FRONT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN. ON
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA MORPHS INTO
A TROUGH THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST THUS SEND FRESH
MOISTURE AND RAIN INTO THE REGION.  POLAN

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE POSSIBLE AT TAF
SITES KYKM AND KALW IN PATCHY FOG UNTIL 15Z. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY UNTIL CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS WORK THERE WAY
INTO TAF SITE KDLS...KRDM...KBDN...KYKM AFTER 15Z THAT COULD PRODUCE
LCL MVFR CONDITIONS. THE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF SITE AFTER 18Z.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  68  46  62  43 /  20  60  30  10
ALW  68  49  63  47 /  10  60  30  10
PSC  68  49  67  45 /  20  50  10  10
YKM  61  42  62  43 /  40  30  10  30
HRI  67  46  66  42 /  20  50  20  10
ELN  65  43  62  43 /  60  40  10  50
RDM  62  35  59  39 /  60  50  10  10
LGD  73  44  59  38 /  10  60  50  10
GCD  71  41  58  39 /  20  60  20  10
DLS  66  47  65  45 /  60  40  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/77








000
FXUS66 KPDT 201527
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
830 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN
MADE.  A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND
WILL GRADUALLY TRACK EASTWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  WIDESPREAD
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADES...SO POPS WERE INCREASED FROM
80-90 PERCENT TO 100 PERCENT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES.  RAIN WILL
SPREAD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  THE MAIN ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
DIRECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OREGON TONIGHT...AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.1"-0.25" ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
BLUES AND THE JOHN DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, BUT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 6500 FEET OVER THE
CASCADES TO NEAR 8000 FEET OVER WALLOWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY WILL RUN BETWEEN 6000 AND 6500 FEET
AREAWIDE. THUS ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINS. MAY SEE SOME LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS TODAY WITH AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER GRANT
COUNTY THIS EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LONGWAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA SOUTHWARD TO NEARLY 30N
WILL AIM A LARGE PINEAPPLE EXPRESS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE WASHINGTON CASCADES BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER,
CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL OREGON WILL BE IN A RAIN SHADOWING SCENARIO
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE OREGON CASCADES. THE
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN LIKELY.
THURSDAY THE FRONT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN. ON
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA MORPHS INTO
A TROUGH THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST THUS SEND FRESH
MOISTURE AND RAIN INTO THE REGION.  POLAN

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE POSSIBLE AT TAF
SITES KYKM AND KALW IN PATCHY FOG UNTIL 15Z. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY UNTIL CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS WORK THERE WAY
INTO TAF SITE KDLS...KRDM...KBDN...KYKM AFTER 15Z THAT COULD PRODUCE
LCL MVFR CONDITIONS. THE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF SITE AFTER 18Z.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  68  46  62  43 /  20  60  30  10
ALW  68  49  63  47 /  10  60  30  10
PSC  68  49  67  45 /  20  50  10  10
YKM  61  42  62  43 /  40  30  10  30
HRI  67  46  66  42 /  20  50  20  10
ELN  65  43  62  43 /  60  40  10  50
RDM  62  35  59  39 /  60  50  10  10
LGD  73  44  59  38 /  10  60  50  10
GCD  71  41  58  39 /  20  60  20  10
DLS  66  47  65  45 /  60  40  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/77









000
FXUS66 KMFR 201113
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
413 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH MEDFORD AT THIS
EARLY HOUR. IT DIDN`T TAKE LONG TO GET HERE AND WILL REACH THE
CASCADES BY MORNING, THEN MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS IN JUST A FEW HOURS AMOUNTED TO
0.75-1.25 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST, BUT AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH WERE
MUCH LESS. THE BAND OF STEADIER RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE ROGUE VALLEY BY MID-LATE MORNING AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
BREAK FOR AWHILE, BUT THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
IS GREATEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST, WHERE
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION TO MEDICINE
LAKE NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE NAM12 INDICATES AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
DUE TO COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT. WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY WILL
BE GUSTY TODAY, BUT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT. STILL COULD
SEE GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO EASTERN OREGON AND IDAHO, BUT MOIST,
ONSHORE FLOW MAY KEEP THEM GOING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES.
EXPECT A RELATIVE BREAK TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH.

ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE NEXT BIG RAIN-MAKER HEADED OUR WAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE`LL SEE A VERY WET SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM
THE PACIFIC TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVING ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
PUSHING INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NAEFS INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR
TRANSPORT (IVT) SHOWING +4 SD FROM THE MEAN INDICATING A HEALTHY
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE FRONTAL BAND OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH STEADY
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING AT THE COAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND WEDNESDAY, THEN
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BAND MOVES ONSHORE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH, SO WE`RE NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT SNOW,
BUT RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY WEST OF THE CASCADES. COASTAL AREAS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE 3-6 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY THURSDAY MORNING. SPILDE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES...FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON`S AFD...THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY WILL BE A WET DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR AREA AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINS AIMED AT US AND A
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. THE FETCH OF THE MOISTURE AND THE FACT
THAT THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY MEANS THAT THERE MAY BE SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN ALONG THE CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS INTO THE
SISKIYOUS. THERE ARE ONLY SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF
BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS/GEM ON THURSDAY, BUT THE RAIN
SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. I
RAISED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY ON THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO CREEP BACK IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS/GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER VERY WET FRONT FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
MORE DIGGING AND A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INTO THE COAST.
IT ALSO TAKES THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IN NORTH OF US. THIS IS THE
SAME THING IT DID LAST WEEK WITH OUR WED/THU FRONT. GIVEN THAT THE
GFS/GEM HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THAN THE ECMWS WITH THIS WEEK`S
SYSTEMS, I`M INCLINED TO LEAN IN THEIR DIRECTION FOR THE ACTION
LATER THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THUS I`VE ALSO RAISED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...20/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CEILINGS HAVE REACHED THE COAST
WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INLAND. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT HAS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS AT THE COAST. SKY
CONDITION WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN AND
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ROGUE VALLEY AND SHASTA VALLEY BY
12Z MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BUT ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS CONDITION
WILL BEGIN AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THEN IN THE ROGUE VALLEY AND SHASTA VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY PRODUCE AREAS OF
RAIN AND MVFR CIGS EAST OF THE CASCADES INCLUDING KLAMATH FALLS/KLMT
MONDAY EVENING. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 930 PM PDT SUN 19 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH RAIN
AND MODERATE WIND WAVES THAT ARE LOCALLY HIGH WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. DESPITE THESE LARGE
WIND WAVES, THE LARGEST COMPONENT OF THE SEAS IS A BUILDING LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL AT 16 SECONDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT THEN A WEAKER FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME
MODERATE AGAIN FROM AROUND 9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. MEANTIME, THE WEST SWELL WILL BE CONTINUING TO BUILD WITH
PEAK COMBINED SEAS OF AROUND 16 FEET EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EVEN THOUGH BOTH SWELL HEIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL
REMAIN HIGH AND STEEP. THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO
APPROACH THEREAFTER WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING THEN POSSIBLY GALES
AND HEAVY SEAS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE WORSE
FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS NORTHWARD THAN TO THE SOUTH. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM
     THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/CC/SBN/TRW






000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST PLACES RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE TUESDAY. SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM
INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST PLACES RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE TUESDAY. SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM
INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS66 KPDT 201001
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE WEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE REGION TODAY. ENERGY IS
STILL DROPPING SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH, THUS THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CASCADES THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN OUT OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST TODAY AND THIS EVENING. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, AND SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL THEN SHIFT INTO OUR EASTERN
ZONES THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL KEEP DECENT PRECIP CHANCES
GOING OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST THROUGH WALLOWA COUNTY AND SOUTH
INTO GRANT COUNTY OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT, BUT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 6500 FEET OVER THE CASCADES TO
NEAR 8000 FEET OVER WALLOWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY WILL RUN BETWEEN 6000 AND 6500 FEET AREAWIDE. THUS
ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS. MAY SEE
SOME LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS TODAY WITH AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER GRANT COUNTY THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON ON
TUESDAY, THOUGH IT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND END
BY LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD PRECIP INTO
OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. 90

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LONGWAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA SOUTHWARD TO NEARLY 30N
WILL AIM A LARGE PINEAPPLE EXPRESS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE WASHINGTON CASCADES BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER,
CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL OREGON WILL BE IN A RAIN SHADOWING SCENARIO
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE OREGON CASCADES. THE
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN LIKELY.
THURSDAY THE FRONT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN. ON
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA MORPHS INTO
A TROUGH THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST THUS SEND FRESH
MOISTURE AND RAIN INTO THE REGION.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE POSSIBLE AT TAF
SITES KYKM AND KALW IN PATCHY FOG UNTIL 15Z. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY UNTIL CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS WORK THERE WAY
INTO TAF SITE KDLS...KRDM...KBDN...KYKM AFTER 15Z THAT COULD PRODUCE
LCL MVFR CONDITIONS. THE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF SITE AFTER 18Z.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  68  46  62  43 /  20  60  30  10
ALW  68  49  63  47 /  10  60  30  10
PSC  68  49  67  45 /  20  50  10  10
YKM  61  42  62  43 /  40  30  10  30
HRI  67  46  66  42 /  20  50  20  10
ELN  65  43  62  43 /  50  40  10  50
RDM  62  35  59  39 /  60  50  10  10
LGD  73  44  59  38 /  10  60  50  10
GCD  68  41  58  39 /  20  60  20  10
DLS  66  47  65  45 /  60  40  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/99









000
FXUS66 KPDT 201001
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE WEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE REGION TODAY. ENERGY IS
STILL DROPPING SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH, THUS THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CASCADES THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN OUT OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST TODAY AND THIS EVENING. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, AND SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL THEN SHIFT INTO OUR EASTERN
ZONES THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL KEEP DECENT PRECIP CHANCES
GOING OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST THROUGH WALLOWA COUNTY AND SOUTH
INTO GRANT COUNTY OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT, BUT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 6500 FEET OVER THE CASCADES TO
NEAR 8000 FEET OVER WALLOWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY WILL RUN BETWEEN 6000 AND 6500 FEET AREAWIDE. THUS
ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS. MAY SEE
SOME LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS TODAY WITH AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER GRANT COUNTY THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON ON
TUESDAY, THOUGH IT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND END
BY LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD PRECIP INTO
OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. 90

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LONGWAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA SOUTHWARD TO NEARLY 30N
WILL AIM A LARGE PINEAPPLE EXPRESS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE WASHINGTON CASCADES BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER,
CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL OREGON WILL BE IN A RAIN SHADOWING SCENARIO
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE OREGON CASCADES. THE
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN LIKELY.
THURSDAY THE FRONT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN. ON
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA MORPHS INTO
A TROUGH THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST THUS SEND FRESH
MOISTURE AND RAIN INTO THE REGION.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE POSSIBLE AT TAF
SITES KYKM AND KALW IN PATCHY FOG UNTIL 15Z. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY UNTIL CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS WORK THERE WAY
INTO TAF SITE KDLS...KRDM...KBDN...KYKM AFTER 15Z THAT COULD PRODUCE
LCL MVFR CONDITIONS. THE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF SITE AFTER 18Z.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  68  46  62  43 /  20  60  30  10
ALW  68  49  63  47 /  10  60  30  10
PSC  68  49  67  45 /  20  50  10  10
YKM  61  42  62  43 /  40  30  10  30
HRI  67  46  66  42 /  20  50  20  10
ELN  65  43  62  43 /  50  40  10  50
RDM  62  35  59  39 /  60  50  10  10
LGD  73  44  59  38 /  10  60  50  10
GCD  68  41  58  39 /  20  60  20  10
DLS  66  47  65  45 /  60  40  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/99








000
FXUS66 KPDT 201001
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE WEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE REGION TODAY. ENERGY IS
STILL DROPPING SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH, THUS THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CASCADES THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN OUT OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST TODAY AND THIS EVENING. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, AND SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL THEN SHIFT INTO OUR EASTERN
ZONES THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL KEEP DECENT PRECIP CHANCES
GOING OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST THROUGH WALLOWA COUNTY AND SOUTH
INTO GRANT COUNTY OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT, BUT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 6500 FEET OVER THE CASCADES TO
NEAR 8000 FEET OVER WALLOWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY WILL RUN BETWEEN 6000 AND 6500 FEET AREAWIDE. THUS
ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS. MAY SEE
SOME LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS TODAY WITH AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER GRANT COUNTY THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON ON
TUESDAY, THOUGH IT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND END
BY LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD PRECIP INTO
OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. 90

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LONGWAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA SOUTHWARD TO NEARLY 30N
WILL AIM A LARGE PINEAPPLE EXPRESS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE WASHINGTON CASCADES BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER,
CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL OREGON WILL BE IN A RAIN SHADOWING SCENARIO
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE OREGON CASCADES. THE
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN LIKELY.
THURSDAY THE FRONT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN. ON
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA MORPHS INTO
A TROUGH THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST THUS SEND FRESH
MOISTURE AND RAIN INTO THE REGION.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE POSSIBLE AT TAF
SITES KYKM AND KALW IN PATCHY FOG UNTIL 15Z. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY UNTIL CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS WORK THERE WAY
INTO TAF SITE KDLS...KRDM...KBDN...KYKM AFTER 15Z THAT COULD PRODUCE
LCL MVFR CONDITIONS. THE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF SITE AFTER 18Z.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  68  46  62  43 /  20  60  30  10
ALW  68  49  63  47 /  10  60  30  10
PSC  68  49  67  45 /  20  50  10  10
YKM  61  42  62  43 /  40  30  10  30
HRI  67  46  66  42 /  20  50  20  10
ELN  65  43  62  43 /  50  40  10  50
RDM  62  35  59  39 /  60  50  10  10
LGD  73  44  59  38 /  10  60  50  10
GCD  68  41  58  39 /  20  60  20  10
DLS  66  47  65  45 /  60  40  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/99








000
FXUS66 KPQR 200928
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING...SPREADING PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY...MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES BY
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY
ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS INCHING ITS
WAY EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING AND HAS
SPREAD AS FAR INLAND AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING A LITTLE HEAVIER AS ANOTHER
VORTMAX TRAVELS NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN
WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND INLAND BY
AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...WITH IT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
RATHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SLOWER TIMING LIMITS INSTABILITY A
BIT...KEEPING MOST CONVECTION RATHER SHALLOW. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST.

00Z NAM SHOWS SOME DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND RESIDUAL
DEFORMATION AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...
WHICH COULD KEEP DECENT SHOWER COVERAGE INTO THE THE EVENING HOURS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE COLD
POOL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...850 MB TEMPS GET
DOWN TO AROUND +3 DEG C WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AROUND 544
DECAMETERS TUE MORNING. THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
GETTING MUCH BELOW 6000 FEET...AND BY THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASING ANYWAY. PERHAPS SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORTS WILL GET A
DUSTING OF SNOW BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.

TUESDAY MAY ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT DAY ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD DRY
THINGS OUT FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ASIDE FROM THE NORTH COAST.
EUGENE AND MUCH OF LANE COUNTY MAY BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S...PERHAPS
EVEN MAKING A RUN FOR 70 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS.

MEANWHILE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...WITH
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WOULD IN
TURN SLOW THE FRONT FURTHER. DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR S WA/N OR COAST ZONES.
MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE AND WHEN LOWS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...
BUT AS AN EXAMPLE THE 06Z NAM DEVELOPS A 994 MB LOW WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COASTAL JET PRODUCING 950 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 60-65 KT
AS FAR SOUTH AS NEWPORT BY MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THEN THE 06Z NAM HAS
AN ADDITIONAL 998 MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY WED AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 50 KT+ WINDS AT 950 MB ALONG THE OREGON COAST.
FOR NOW SUFFICE IT TO SAY THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST...PARTICULARLY THE BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS...TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH A DEEPENING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DEVELOPING AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS IMPRESSIVE IN ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND IT SHOWS IN THE MODEL QPF. WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
STRONG AT TIMES FOR SOUTH-FAVORED SLOPES. FOR NOW...OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME RAIN
TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE AND THE
S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT FOR OUR
MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT OF THE
WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
TAIL END OF OUR MIDWEEK RAIN EVENT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER
TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS WOULD SUGGEST.
WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS FRONT PUSHES INLAND.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT MVFR NOW INCREASING ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD HAVE
AREAS OF MVFR FURTHER INLAND UNTIL 17Z. EXPECT MTNS/PASSES TO BE
FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. AIR MASS BECOMING UNSTABLE AFTER 17Z...WITH
SHOWERS INCREASING. AT THAT TIME...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VIS UNDER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY...WITH RAIN UNTIL 17Z...THEN
BRIEF BREAK BEFORE SHOWERS INCREASE. STILL LOOKS REASONABLE TO
EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS 12Z TO 17Z AS FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
OPS AREA. THEN ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS UNDER SHOWERS. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...BROAD LOW PRES STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
SEVERAL FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEK.

FIRST IS APPROACHING THE COAST EARLY THIS AM...AND WILL MOVE
ONSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE EASED A BIT...BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN
ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT FOR GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS MAY RELAX AT TIMES...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS OVER
REGION...WILL STILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. SO...WILL EXTEND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS OUT THROUGH TUE.

NEXT FRONT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER...AND WILL APPROACH REGION LATER
TUE AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. LOOKS LIKE SOLID SOUTHERLY GALES...WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45
KT TUE NIGHT.

SEAS NOW RUNNING 12 TO 13 FT...BUT WILL HOLD RATHER STEADY THROUGH
TUE. BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT...EXPECT
COMBINED SEAS TO BUILD BACK TO 15 TO 20 FT FOR TUE NIGHT...BUT
HIGHEST STILL STILL LIKELY TO BE OVER THE OUTER WATERS...OR FROM
10 TO 60 MILES OFFSHORE. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY
 THROUGH TUE ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
 FROM NOW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 200928
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING...SPREADING PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY...MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES BY
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY
ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS INCHING ITS
WAY EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING AND HAS
SPREAD AS FAR INLAND AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING A LITTLE HEAVIER AS ANOTHER
VORTMAX TRAVELS NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN
WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND INLAND BY
AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...WITH IT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
RATHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SLOWER TIMING LIMITS INSTABILITY A
BIT...KEEPING MOST CONVECTION RATHER SHALLOW. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST.

00Z NAM SHOWS SOME DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND RESIDUAL
DEFORMATION AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...
WHICH COULD KEEP DECENT SHOWER COVERAGE INTO THE THE EVENING HOURS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE COLD
POOL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...850 MB TEMPS GET
DOWN TO AROUND +3 DEG C WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AROUND 544
DECAMETERS TUE MORNING. THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
GETTING MUCH BELOW 6000 FEET...AND BY THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASING ANYWAY. PERHAPS SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORTS WILL GET A
DUSTING OF SNOW BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.

TUESDAY MAY ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT DAY ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD DRY
THINGS OUT FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ASIDE FROM THE NORTH COAST.
EUGENE AND MUCH OF LANE COUNTY MAY BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S...PERHAPS
EVEN MAKING A RUN FOR 70 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS.

MEANWHILE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...WITH
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WOULD IN
TURN SLOW THE FRONT FURTHER. DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR S WA/N OR COAST ZONES.
MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE AND WHEN LOWS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...
BUT AS AN EXAMPLE THE 06Z NAM DEVELOPS A 994 MB LOW WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COASTAL JET PRODUCING 950 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 60-65 KT
AS FAR SOUTH AS NEWPORT BY MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THEN THE 06Z NAM HAS
AN ADDITIONAL 998 MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY WED AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 50 KT+ WINDS AT 950 MB ALONG THE OREGON COAST.
FOR NOW SUFFICE IT TO SAY THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST...PARTICULARLY THE BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS...TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH A DEEPENING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DEVELOPING AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS IMPRESSIVE IN ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND IT SHOWS IN THE MODEL QPF. WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
STRONG AT TIMES FOR SOUTH-FAVORED SLOPES. FOR NOW...OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME RAIN
TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE AND THE
S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT FOR OUR
MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT OF THE
WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
TAIL END OF OUR MIDWEEK RAIN EVENT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER
TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS WOULD SUGGEST.
WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS FRONT PUSHES INLAND.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT MVFR NOW INCREASING ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD HAVE
AREAS OF MVFR FURTHER INLAND UNTIL 17Z. EXPECT MTNS/PASSES TO BE
FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. AIR MASS BECOMING UNSTABLE AFTER 17Z...WITH
SHOWERS INCREASING. AT THAT TIME...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VIS UNDER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY...WITH RAIN UNTIL 17Z...THEN
BRIEF BREAK BEFORE SHOWERS INCREASE. STILL LOOKS REASONABLE TO
EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS 12Z TO 17Z AS FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
OPS AREA. THEN ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS UNDER SHOWERS. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...BROAD LOW PRES STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
SEVERAL FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEK.

FIRST IS APPROACHING THE COAST EARLY THIS AM...AND WILL MOVE
ONSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE EASED A BIT...BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN
ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT FOR GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS MAY RELAX AT TIMES...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS OVER
REGION...WILL STILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. SO...WILL EXTEND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS OUT THROUGH TUE.

NEXT FRONT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER...AND WILL APPROACH REGION LATER
TUE AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. LOOKS LIKE SOLID SOUTHERLY GALES...WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45
KT TUE NIGHT.

SEAS NOW RUNNING 12 TO 13 FT...BUT WILL HOLD RATHER STEADY THROUGH
TUE. BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT...EXPECT
COMBINED SEAS TO BUILD BACK TO 15 TO 20 FT FOR TUE NIGHT...BUT
HIGHEST STILL STILL LIKELY TO BE OVER THE OUTER WATERS...OR FROM
10 TO 60 MILES OFFSHORE. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY
 THROUGH TUE ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
 FROM NOW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 200928
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING...SPREADING PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY...MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES BY
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY
ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS INCHING ITS
WAY EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING AND HAS
SPREAD AS FAR INLAND AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING A LITTLE HEAVIER AS ANOTHER
VORTMAX TRAVELS NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN
WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND INLAND BY
AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...WITH IT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
RATHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SLOWER TIMING LIMITS INSTABILITY A
BIT...KEEPING MOST CONVECTION RATHER SHALLOW. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST.

00Z NAM SHOWS SOME DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND RESIDUAL
DEFORMATION AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...
WHICH COULD KEEP DECENT SHOWER COVERAGE INTO THE THE EVENING HOURS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE COLD
POOL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...850 MB TEMPS GET
DOWN TO AROUND +3 DEG C WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AROUND 544
DECAMETERS TUE MORNING. THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
GETTING MUCH BELOW 6000 FEET...AND BY THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASING ANYWAY. PERHAPS SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORTS WILL GET A
DUSTING OF SNOW BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.

TUESDAY MAY ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT DAY ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD DRY
THINGS OUT FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ASIDE FROM THE NORTH COAST.
EUGENE AND MUCH OF LANE COUNTY MAY BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S...PERHAPS
EVEN MAKING A RUN FOR 70 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS.

MEANWHILE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...WITH
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WOULD IN
TURN SLOW THE FRONT FURTHER. DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR S WA/N OR COAST ZONES.
MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE AND WHEN LOWS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...
BUT AS AN EXAMPLE THE 06Z NAM DEVELOPS A 994 MB LOW WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COASTAL JET PRODUCING 950 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 60-65 KT
AS FAR SOUTH AS NEWPORT BY MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THEN THE 06Z NAM HAS
AN ADDITIONAL 998 MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY WED AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 50 KT+ WINDS AT 950 MB ALONG THE OREGON COAST.
FOR NOW SUFFICE IT TO SAY THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST...PARTICULARLY THE BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS...TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH A DEEPENING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DEVELOPING AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS IMPRESSIVE IN ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND IT SHOWS IN THE MODEL QPF. WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
STRONG AT TIMES FOR SOUTH-FAVORED SLOPES. FOR NOW...OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME RAIN
TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE AND THE
S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT FOR OUR
MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT OF THE
WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
TAIL END OF OUR MIDWEEK RAIN EVENT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER
TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS WOULD SUGGEST.
WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS FRONT PUSHES INLAND.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT MVFR NOW INCREASING ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD HAVE
AREAS OF MVFR FURTHER INLAND UNTIL 17Z. EXPECT MTNS/PASSES TO BE
FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. AIR MASS BECOMING UNSTABLE AFTER 17Z...WITH
SHOWERS INCREASING. AT THAT TIME...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VIS UNDER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY...WITH RAIN UNTIL 17Z...THEN
BRIEF BREAK BEFORE SHOWERS INCREASE. STILL LOOKS REASONABLE TO
EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS 12Z TO 17Z AS FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
OPS AREA. THEN ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS UNDER SHOWERS. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...BROAD LOW PRES STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
SEVERAL FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEK.

FIRST IS APPROACHING THE COAST EARLY THIS AM...AND WILL MOVE
ONSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE EASED A BIT...BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN
ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT FOR GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS MAY RELAX AT TIMES...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS OVER
REGION...WILL STILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. SO...WILL EXTEND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS OUT THROUGH TUE.

NEXT FRONT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER...AND WILL APPROACH REGION LATER
TUE AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. LOOKS LIKE SOLID SOUTHERLY GALES...WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45
KT TUE NIGHT.

SEAS NOW RUNNING 12 TO 13 FT...BUT WILL HOLD RATHER STEADY THROUGH
TUE. BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT...EXPECT
COMBINED SEAS TO BUILD BACK TO 15 TO 20 FT FOR TUE NIGHT...BUT
HIGHEST STILL STILL LIKELY TO BE OVER THE OUTER WATERS...OR FROM
10 TO 60 MILES OFFSHORE. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY
 THROUGH TUE ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
 FROM NOW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



000
FXUS66 KMFR 200439 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
938 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...EVENING UPDATE. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES ARE
CONFIRMING THE LATEST MODELS SOLUTION OF A SLIGHTLY FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO BRING PRECIPITATION ON MORE QUICKLY
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT IS STARTING TO
MOVE INTO OUR OUTER WATERS AND IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE CLOUD FORMATION ALONG THE
COAST SUGGEST THERE ARE STRONG WINDS ALOFT. THE MODELS REMAIN IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH MOST AREAS
PICKING UP BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH. FURTHER INLAND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER AND THE ROGUE VALLEY IS NOT
LIKELY TO GET ANYTHING MEASURABLE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND MONDAY
MORNING WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION LIKELY SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO AND SOUTH COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTSIDE WITH 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH EXPECTED IN THE ROGUE VALLEY.
WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER THE
MARINE WATERS, THERE`S A BETTER CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COOL
POOL ALOFT (500 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -22 AND -24C) MOVES OVERHEAD LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE, WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES ARE ALREADY STARTING TO
PICK UP AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT. PARTICULARLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SHASTA VALLEY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE WINDS ARE FAIRLY ALIGNED IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD MIX DOWN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WE SEE PEAK WIND GUST NEAR 45 MPH IN THE SOUTH END OF THE
SHASTA VALLEY. THUS, THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TOUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES.

CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND WINDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER TUESDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. RIGHT NOW
TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR. THE EC AND GEM SHOW THE FRONT KNOCKING
ON OUR DOORSTEP TUESDAY EVENING (THE GEM IS THE FASTEST OF THE
MODELS). IN CONTRAST, THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOWER AND DO NOT BRING
THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THEY
ARE ALL TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND THEY ARE SUGGESTING THE CORE OF
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS HEADING RIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON.
THIS IS LINING UP WELL WITH THE IVT TRANSPORT WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING THE CORE OF THIS TAKING AIM AT SOUTHWEST
OREGON. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
-PETRUCELLI

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY WILL BE A WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AS
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINS AIMED AT US AND A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH. THE FETCH OF THE MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY MEANS THAT THERE MAY BE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN ALONG THE CURRY
COAST AND MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS INTO THE SISKIYOUS. THERE ARE ONLY
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
THE GFS/GEM ON THURSDAY, BUT THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. I RAISED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY ON
THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO CREEP BACK IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS/GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER VERY WET FRONT FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
MORE DIGGING AND A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INTO THE COAST.
IT ALSO TAKES THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IN NORTH OF US. THIS IS THE
SAME THING IT DID LAST WEEK WITH OUR WED/THU FRONT. GIVEN THAT THE
GFS/GEM HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THAN THE ECMWS WITH THIS WEEK`S
SYSTEMS, I`M INCLINED TO LEAN IN THEIR DIRECTION FOR THE ACTION
LATER THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THUS I`VE ALSO RAISED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...20/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CEILINGS HAVE REACHED THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUNNY SKIES BUT ALSO BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS INLAND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SEND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS TO THE COAST BEGINNING AROUND 03Z THIS
EVENING. SKY CONDITION WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
WITH RAIN AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REACH ROSEBURG/KRBG AROUND 06Z
THEN MOVE TO THE ROGUE VALLEY AND SHASTA VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS BUT ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS CONDITION WILL BEGIN
AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY AND SHASTA VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN
AND MVFR CIGS EAST OF THE CASCADES INCLUDING KLAMATH FALLS/KLMT
MONDAY EVENING. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 930 PM PDT SUN 19 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH RAIN
AND MODERATE WIND WAVES THAT ARE LOCALLY HIGH WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. DESPITE THESE LARGE
WIND WAVES, THE LARGEST COMPONENT OF THE SEAS IS A BUILDING LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL AT 16 SECONDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT THEN A WEAKER FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME
MODERATE AGAIN FROM AROUND 9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. MEANTIME, THE WEST SWELL WILL BE CONTINUING TO BUILD WITH
PEAK COMBINED SEAS OF AROUND 16 FEET EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EVEN THOUGH BOTH SWELL HEIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL
REMAIN HIGH AND STEEP. THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO
APPROACH THEREAFTER WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING THEN POSSIBLY GALES
AND HEAVY SEAS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE WORSE
FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS NORTHWARD THAN TO THE SOUTH. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.

$$












000
FXUS66 KMFR 200439 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
938 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...EVENING UPDATE. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES ARE
CONFIRMING THE LATEST MODELS SOLUTION OF A SLIGHTLY FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO BRING PRECIPITATION ON MORE QUICKLY
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT IS STARTING TO
MOVE INTO OUR OUTER WATERS AND IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE CLOUD FORMATION ALONG THE
COAST SUGGEST THERE ARE STRONG WINDS ALOFT. THE MODELS REMAIN IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH MOST AREAS
PICKING UP BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH. FURTHER INLAND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER AND THE ROGUE VALLEY IS NOT
LIKELY TO GET ANYTHING MEASURABLE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND MONDAY
MORNING WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION LIKELY SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO AND SOUTH COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTSIDE WITH 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH EXPECTED IN THE ROGUE VALLEY.
WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER THE
MARINE WATERS, THERE`S A BETTER CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COOL
POOL ALOFT (500 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -22 AND -24C) MOVES OVERHEAD LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE, WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES ARE ALREADY STARTING TO
PICK UP AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT. PARTICULARLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SHASTA VALLEY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE WINDS ARE FAIRLY ALIGNED IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD MIX DOWN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WE SEE PEAK WIND GUST NEAR 45 MPH IN THE SOUTH END OF THE
SHASTA VALLEY. THUS, THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TOUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES.

CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND WINDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER TUESDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. RIGHT NOW
TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR. THE EC AND GEM SHOW THE FRONT KNOCKING
ON OUR DOORSTEP TUESDAY EVENING (THE GEM IS THE FASTEST OF THE
MODELS). IN CONTRAST, THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOWER AND DO NOT BRING
THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THEY
ARE ALL TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND THEY ARE SUGGESTING THE CORE OF
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS HEADING RIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON.
THIS IS LINING UP WELL WITH THE IVT TRANSPORT WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING THE CORE OF THIS TAKING AIM AT SOUTHWEST
OREGON. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
-PETRUCELLI

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY WILL BE A WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AS
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINS AIMED AT US AND A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH. THE FETCH OF THE MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY MEANS THAT THERE MAY BE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN ALONG THE CURRY
COAST AND MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS INTO THE SISKIYOUS. THERE ARE ONLY
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
THE GFS/GEM ON THURSDAY, BUT THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. I RAISED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY ON
THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO CREEP BACK IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS/GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER VERY WET FRONT FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
MORE DIGGING AND A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INTO THE COAST.
IT ALSO TAKES THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IN NORTH OF US. THIS IS THE
SAME THING IT DID LAST WEEK WITH OUR WED/THU FRONT. GIVEN THAT THE
GFS/GEM HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THAN THE ECMWS WITH THIS WEEK`S
SYSTEMS, I`M INCLINED TO LEAN IN THEIR DIRECTION FOR THE ACTION
LATER THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THUS I`VE ALSO RAISED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...20/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CEILINGS HAVE REACHED THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUNNY SKIES BUT ALSO BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS INLAND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SEND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS TO THE COAST BEGINNING AROUND 03Z THIS
EVENING. SKY CONDITION WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
WITH RAIN AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REACH ROSEBURG/KRBG AROUND 06Z
THEN MOVE TO THE ROGUE VALLEY AND SHASTA VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS BUT ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS CONDITION WILL BEGIN
AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY AND SHASTA VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN
AND MVFR CIGS EAST OF THE CASCADES INCLUDING KLAMATH FALLS/KLMT
MONDAY EVENING. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 930 PM PDT SUN 19 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH RAIN
AND MODERATE WIND WAVES THAT ARE LOCALLY HIGH WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. DESPITE THESE LARGE
WIND WAVES, THE LARGEST COMPONENT OF THE SEAS IS A BUILDING LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL AT 16 SECONDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT THEN A WEAKER FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME
MODERATE AGAIN FROM AROUND 9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. MEANTIME, THE WEST SWELL WILL BE CONTINUING TO BUILD WITH
PEAK COMBINED SEAS OF AROUND 16 FEET EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EVEN THOUGH BOTH SWELL HEIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL
REMAIN HIGH AND STEEP. THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO
APPROACH THEREAFTER WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING THEN POSSIBLY GALES
AND HEAVY SEAS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE WORSE
FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS NORTHWARD THAN TO THE SOUTH. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.

$$













000
FXUS66 KPDT 200412 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
905 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING AN AREA OF RAIN MOVING INTO
THE WA/OR COAST. THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE NE PAC. THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INLAND AND
PUSH INTO THE WA/OR CASCADES LATER TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL OREGON TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AND FOR TONIGHT SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER THAT COULD ALSO FORM IN THE
YAKIMA/KITTITAS VALLEY AND IN THE WALLA WALLA AREA TOO. OTHERWISE
THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES KYKM
AND KALW IN PATCHY FOG UNTIL 15Z. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY UNTIL CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS WORK THERE WAY INTO TAF
SITE KDLS...KRDM...KBDN...KYKM AFTER 15Z THAT COULD PRODUCE LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS. THE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
SITE AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 440 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE COAST WILL GET PUSHED INLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE CASCADES TOWARD MORNING. THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. THE
CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT DROP
IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 6-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK. EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HEAVIER
RAIN IS LIKELY OVER THE CASCADES LATER IN THE DAY. 94

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM PERIOD
STARTS OFF VERY ACTIVE AS A WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY FLOW OF
PACIFIC/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE AIMED RIGHT AT THE PAC
NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE AMPLE
RAINFALL..ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES WHERE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL LIKELY BE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE`VE
BEEN EXPERIENCING RECENTLY...AS THEY WILL DROP BACK TO RIGHT AROUND
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING FROM
7000-8500 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOWN TO 5500-7500 FEET FOR THURSDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WE THEN CATCH A SHORT BREAK FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE ASHORE
LATE NEXT WEEKEND...PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
ONE THOUGH. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  65  46  63 /   0  20  50  20
ALW  46  67  49  64 /   0  20  50  30
PSC  43  65  49  65 /   0  20  40  10
YKM  45  62  42  62 /   0  40  40  10
HRI  42  65  47  65 /   0  30  50  10
ELN  46  63  43  62 /  10  50  40  20
RDM  38  62  39  60 /  10  50  50  10
LGD  44  67  44  59 /   0  10  60  30
GCD  44  65  44  58 /   0  20  60  30
DLS  50  64  46  65 /  10  60  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97








000
FXUS66 KPDT 200412 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
905 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING AN AREA OF RAIN MOVING INTO
THE WA/OR COAST. THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE NE PAC. THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INLAND AND
PUSH INTO THE WA/OR CASCADES LATER TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL OREGON TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AND FOR TONIGHT SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER THAT COULD ALSO FORM IN THE
YAKIMA/KITTITAS VALLEY AND IN THE WALLA WALLA AREA TOO. OTHERWISE
THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES KYKM
AND KALW IN PATCHY FOG UNTIL 15Z. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY UNTIL CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS WORK THERE WAY INTO TAF
SITE KDLS...KRDM...KBDN...KYKM AFTER 15Z THAT COULD PRODUCE LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS. THE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
SITE AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 440 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE COAST WILL GET PUSHED INLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE CASCADES TOWARD MORNING. THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. THE
CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT DROP
IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 6-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK. EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HEAVIER
RAIN IS LIKELY OVER THE CASCADES LATER IN THE DAY. 94

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM PERIOD
STARTS OFF VERY ACTIVE AS A WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY FLOW OF
PACIFIC/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE AIMED RIGHT AT THE PAC
NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE AMPLE
RAINFALL..ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES WHERE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL LIKELY BE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE`VE
BEEN EXPERIENCING RECENTLY...AS THEY WILL DROP BACK TO RIGHT AROUND
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING FROM
7000-8500 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOWN TO 5500-7500 FEET FOR THURSDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WE THEN CATCH A SHORT BREAK FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE ASHORE
LATE NEXT WEEKEND...PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
ONE THOUGH. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  65  46  63 /   0  20  50  20
ALW  46  67  49  64 /   0  20  50  30
PSC  43  65  49  65 /   0  20  40  10
YKM  45  62  42  62 /   0  40  40  10
HRI  42  65  47  65 /   0  30  50  10
ELN  46  63  43  62 /  10  50  40  20
RDM  38  62  39  60 /  10  50  50  10
LGD  44  67  44  59 /   0  10  60  30
GCD  44  65  44  58 /   0  20  60  30
DLS  50  64  46  65 /  10  60  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97









000
FXUS66 KPQR 200340
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
840 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS ANCHORED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND WILL SEND A SERIES OF SYSTEMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE FIRST FRONT WAS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING
AND WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
NEXT RATHER STRONG AND QUITE WET FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE
TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY
THE WEEKEND. EXPECT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH IN THE CASCADES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS BECOME ANCHORED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH THE WEEK...CONTINUING THE
FALL LIKE WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. THE
FIRST FAIRLY STRONG FRONT WAS NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED ALONG THE COAST
AND JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INLAND AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN.

THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY
MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND ONSHORE INTO CALIFORNIA. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE MAIN
COLD POOL ALOFT AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH. WILL
KEEP SOME THUNDER OVER THE WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST...BUT INLAND IS
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE NEXT FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST LATER TUESDAY AND
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS FRONT LOOKS
EVEN MORE MOIST THAN THE CURRENT ONE...WITH MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UP NEAR 1.3 INCHES AND STRONG 850 MB INFLOW WINDS.
FORTUNATELY...AT THIS POINT THE FRONT DOES NOT SEEM TO STALL AND
GENERALLY PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA SOMEWHAT STEADILY THOUGH STILL
SLOWLY. THIS SYSTEM DOES NEED TO BE CAREFULLY WATCHED AS THERE COULD
BE SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS...INCLUDING SOME OF OUR FLASHIER
RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.

THE MODELS VARY SOME ON THE STRENGTH OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS THE STRONGEST AND
THE ECMWF THE WEAKEST. IF THE GFS IS CLOSER TO VERIFYING...THEN WE
COULD SEE OUR FIRST HEADLAND COASTAL HIGH WIND EVENT OF THE FALL. IN
ANY EVENT GALES LOOK PRETTY CERTAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
BE GENERATED OFF PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC...CONTINUING TO GENERATE THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS THAT MOVE
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY EVERY OTHER DAY.THIS KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST...BECAUSE AS ONE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES RIGHT BEHIND IT. THIS PATTERN APPEARS AS IF IT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY POOR AFTER
THURSDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS...THOUGH...HINT AT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS BROAD THERMAL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. FRONT HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY THIS
EVENING AND IS PRESENTLY NEAR THE COAST...WHERE GUSTY S WINDS TO 25
KT AND VFR CIGS AROUND 4000 FT ALONG WITH A SCATTERED DECK AROUND
3000 FT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WITH RAIN STARTING TO REACH THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. AS FRONT CONTINUES MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR...RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND AFTER 06Z WITH RAIN MODERATE AT TIMES
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL IFR VSBYS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERY
CONDITIONS AND MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING 12Z THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z MONDAY. POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CIGS
DEVELOPING AROUND 4000 FT BY 07Z. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2000 FT ALONG WITH DECREASING
VSBYS POSSIBLE FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR
AROUND MIDDAY MON WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BIG PICTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE STAYS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
EXPECT MULTIPLE FRONTS AND SMALLER SCALE LOW PRES SYSTEMS TO CROSS
THE WATERS THIS WEEK.

THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS TRAVERSED THE WATERS AND IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED JUST ONSHORE. WHILE WIND GUSTS TO 41 KT AT BUOY 46029 AND 44
KT AT GARIBALDI WERE RECORDED THIS EVENING...WINDS HAVE EASED AS THE
FRONT PUSHED ONSHORE AND WITH OBSERVATIONS LAST HOUR CONSIDERABLY
LOWER...FEEL COMFORTABLE TO END THE GALE WARNING AS OF 8 PM. GUSTS
25-30 KT MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
EASE MON MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KT
MON EVENING AND EARLY TUE. WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
LATE TUE INTO WED...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS
LIKELY...THOUGH DETAILS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS NEXT FRONT REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

SEAS PEAKED AROUND 14 FT THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
12-14 FT RANGE THROUGH MON NIGHT...AND HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEAS GRADUALLY EASE A LITTLE LATE MON OR
EARLY TUE...BUT SHOULD AGAIN BUILD A BIT HIGHER WITH THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM AND FRONT ARRIVING TUE/WED. THUS...EXPECT THAT SEAS LIKELY
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS WEEK.
CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT MON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUE
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 200340
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
840 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS ANCHORED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND WILL SEND A SERIES OF SYSTEMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE FIRST FRONT WAS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING
AND WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
NEXT RATHER STRONG AND QUITE WET FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE
TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY
THE WEEKEND. EXPECT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH IN THE CASCADES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS BECOME ANCHORED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH THE WEEK...CONTINUING THE
FALL LIKE WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. THE
FIRST FAIRLY STRONG FRONT WAS NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED ALONG THE COAST
AND JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INLAND AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN.

THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY
MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND ONSHORE INTO CALIFORNIA. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE MAIN
COLD POOL ALOFT AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH. WILL
KEEP SOME THUNDER OVER THE WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST...BUT INLAND IS
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE NEXT FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST LATER TUESDAY AND
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS FRONT LOOKS
EVEN MORE MOIST THAN THE CURRENT ONE...WITH MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UP NEAR 1.3 INCHES AND STRONG 850 MB INFLOW WINDS.
FORTUNATELY...AT THIS POINT THE FRONT DOES NOT SEEM TO STALL AND
GENERALLY PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA SOMEWHAT STEADILY THOUGH STILL
SLOWLY. THIS SYSTEM DOES NEED TO BE CAREFULLY WATCHED AS THERE COULD
BE SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS...INCLUDING SOME OF OUR FLASHIER
RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.

THE MODELS VARY SOME ON THE STRENGTH OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS THE STRONGEST AND
THE ECMWF THE WEAKEST. IF THE GFS IS CLOSER TO VERIFYING...THEN WE
COULD SEE OUR FIRST HEADLAND COASTAL HIGH WIND EVENT OF THE FALL. IN
ANY EVENT GALES LOOK PRETTY CERTAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
BE GENERATED OFF PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC...CONTINUING TO GENERATE THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS THAT MOVE
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY EVERY OTHER DAY.THIS KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST...BECAUSE AS ONE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES RIGHT BEHIND IT. THIS PATTERN APPEARS AS IF IT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY POOR AFTER
THURSDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS...THOUGH...HINT AT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS BROAD THERMAL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. FRONT HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY THIS
EVENING AND IS PRESENTLY NEAR THE COAST...WHERE GUSTY S WINDS TO 25
KT AND VFR CIGS AROUND 4000 FT ALONG WITH A SCATTERED DECK AROUND
3000 FT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WITH RAIN STARTING TO REACH THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. AS FRONT CONTINUES MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR...RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND AFTER 06Z WITH RAIN MODERATE AT TIMES
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL IFR VSBYS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERY
CONDITIONS AND MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING 12Z THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z MONDAY. POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CIGS
DEVELOPING AROUND 4000 FT BY 07Z. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2000 FT ALONG WITH DECREASING
VSBYS POSSIBLE FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR
AROUND MIDDAY MON WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BIG PICTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE STAYS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
EXPECT MULTIPLE FRONTS AND SMALLER SCALE LOW PRES SYSTEMS TO CROSS
THE WATERS THIS WEEK.

THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS TRAVERSED THE WATERS AND IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED JUST ONSHORE. WHILE WIND GUSTS TO 41 KT AT BUOY 46029 AND 44
KT AT GARIBALDI WERE RECORDED THIS EVENING...WINDS HAVE EASED AS THE
FRONT PUSHED ONSHORE AND WITH OBSERVATIONS LAST HOUR CONSIDERABLY
LOWER...FEEL COMFORTABLE TO END THE GALE WARNING AS OF 8 PM. GUSTS
25-30 KT MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
EASE MON MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KT
MON EVENING AND EARLY TUE. WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
LATE TUE INTO WED...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS
LIKELY...THOUGH DETAILS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS NEXT FRONT REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

SEAS PEAKED AROUND 14 FT THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
12-14 FT RANGE THROUGH MON NIGHT...AND HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEAS GRADUALLY EASE A LITTLE LATE MON OR
EARLY TUE...BUT SHOULD AGAIN BUILD A BIT HIGHER WITH THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM AND FRONT ARRIVING TUE/WED. THUS...EXPECT THAT SEAS LIKELY
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS WEEK.
CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT MON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUE
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 200340
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
840 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS ANCHORED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND WILL SEND A SERIES OF SYSTEMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE FIRST FRONT WAS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING
AND WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
NEXT RATHER STRONG AND QUITE WET FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE
TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY
THE WEEKEND. EXPECT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH IN THE CASCADES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS BECOME ANCHORED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH THE WEEK...CONTINUING THE
FALL LIKE WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. THE
FIRST FAIRLY STRONG FRONT WAS NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED ALONG THE COAST
AND JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INLAND AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN.

THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY
MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND ONSHORE INTO CALIFORNIA. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE MAIN
COLD POOL ALOFT AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH. WILL
KEEP SOME THUNDER OVER THE WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST...BUT INLAND IS
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE NEXT FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST LATER TUESDAY AND
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS FRONT LOOKS
EVEN MORE MOIST THAN THE CURRENT ONE...WITH MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UP NEAR 1.3 INCHES AND STRONG 850 MB INFLOW WINDS.
FORTUNATELY...AT THIS POINT THE FRONT DOES NOT SEEM TO STALL AND
GENERALLY PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA SOMEWHAT STEADILY THOUGH STILL
SLOWLY. THIS SYSTEM DOES NEED TO BE CAREFULLY WATCHED AS THERE COULD
BE SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS...INCLUDING SOME OF OUR FLASHIER
RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.

THE MODELS VARY SOME ON THE STRENGTH OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS THE STRONGEST AND
THE ECMWF THE WEAKEST. IF THE GFS IS CLOSER TO VERIFYING...THEN WE
COULD SEE OUR FIRST HEADLAND COASTAL HIGH WIND EVENT OF THE FALL. IN
ANY EVENT GALES LOOK PRETTY CERTAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
BE GENERATED OFF PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC...CONTINUING TO GENERATE THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS THAT MOVE
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY EVERY OTHER DAY.THIS KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST...BECAUSE AS ONE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES RIGHT BEHIND IT. THIS PATTERN APPEARS AS IF IT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY POOR AFTER
THURSDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS...THOUGH...HINT AT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS BROAD THERMAL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. FRONT HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY THIS
EVENING AND IS PRESENTLY NEAR THE COAST...WHERE GUSTY S WINDS TO 25
KT AND VFR CIGS AROUND 4000 FT ALONG WITH A SCATTERED DECK AROUND
3000 FT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WITH RAIN STARTING TO REACH THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. AS FRONT CONTINUES MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR...RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND AFTER 06Z WITH RAIN MODERATE AT TIMES
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL IFR VSBYS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERY
CONDITIONS AND MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING 12Z THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z MONDAY. POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CIGS
DEVELOPING AROUND 4000 FT BY 07Z. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2000 FT ALONG WITH DECREASING
VSBYS POSSIBLE FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR
AROUND MIDDAY MON WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BIG PICTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE STAYS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
EXPECT MULTIPLE FRONTS AND SMALLER SCALE LOW PRES SYSTEMS TO CROSS
THE WATERS THIS WEEK.

THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS TRAVERSED THE WATERS AND IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED JUST ONSHORE. WHILE WIND GUSTS TO 41 KT AT BUOY 46029 AND 44
KT AT GARIBALDI WERE RECORDED THIS EVENING...WINDS HAVE EASED AS THE
FRONT PUSHED ONSHORE AND WITH OBSERVATIONS LAST HOUR CONSIDERABLY
LOWER...FEEL COMFORTABLE TO END THE GALE WARNING AS OF 8 PM. GUSTS
25-30 KT MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
EASE MON MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KT
MON EVENING AND EARLY TUE. WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
LATE TUE INTO WED...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS
LIKELY...THOUGH DETAILS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS NEXT FRONT REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

SEAS PEAKED AROUND 14 FT THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
12-14 FT RANGE THROUGH MON NIGHT...AND HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEAS GRADUALLY EASE A LITTLE LATE MON OR
EARLY TUE...BUT SHOULD AGAIN BUILD A BIT HIGHER WITH THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM AND FRONT ARRIVING TUE/WED. THUS...EXPECT THAT SEAS LIKELY
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS WEEK.
CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT MON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUE
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS65 KBOI 200240
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT FOR CLEAR AND MILD
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW FOLLOWING TODAY/S HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS TO NEAR 70 IN THE
MTNS. THE 18Z MODELS REMAIN LOCKED ON FOR TUESDAY/S SYSTEM
BRINGING IT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING. NO UPDATES FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON MONDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15-25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER DAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION. FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN THE
850-700MB LAYER SHOULD MIX DOWN TO BRING AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS TO
MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY. OTHERWISE ALL MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING
THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN OREGON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHERE THE ECM/GFS
DIVERGE FROM THE NAM IN THAT THE NAM TAKES THE S/W ENHANCED AREA
SEEN ON THE CURRENT IR SAT PICS OFF THE WEST COAST DUE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND INTO UTAH...ECM/GFS CONTINUE THE TREND
OF PUSHING IT INTO NW NEVADA THEN NE INTO CENTRAL IDAHO...THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS/0.10 INCHES/ AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW/ ABV 7000 FEET/ TO THE IDAHO ZONES WITH ONLY
AREAS OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS EASTERN OREGON.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OREGON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AREA EXPECTED. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE FASTER
GFS BRINGING IN A TROUGH FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE ECMWF TIMING OF
LATE SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...CR
PREV LONG TERM....JS/DD



000
FXUS65 KBOI 200240
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT FOR CLEAR AND MILD
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW FOLLOWING TODAY/S HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS TO NEAR 70 IN THE
MTNS. THE 18Z MODELS REMAIN LOCKED ON FOR TUESDAY/S SYSTEM
BRINGING IT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING. NO UPDATES FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON MONDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15-25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER DAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION. FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN THE
850-700MB LAYER SHOULD MIX DOWN TO BRING AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS TO
MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY. OTHERWISE ALL MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING
THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN OREGON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHERE THE ECM/GFS
DIVERGE FROM THE NAM IN THAT THE NAM TAKES THE S/W ENHANCED AREA
SEEN ON THE CURRENT IR SAT PICS OFF THE WEST COAST DUE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND INTO UTAH...ECM/GFS CONTINUE THE TREND
OF PUSHING IT INTO NW NEVADA THEN NE INTO CENTRAL IDAHO...THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS/0.10 INCHES/ AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW/ ABV 7000 FEET/ TO THE IDAHO ZONES WITH ONLY
AREAS OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS EASTERN OREGON.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OREGON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AREA EXPECTED. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE FASTER
GFS BRINGING IN A TROUGH FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE ECMWF TIMING OF
LATE SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...CR
PREV LONG TERM....JS/DD



000
FXUS65 KBOI 200240
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT FOR CLEAR AND MILD
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW FOLLOWING TODAY/S HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS TO NEAR 70 IN THE
MTNS. THE 18Z MODELS REMAIN LOCKED ON FOR TUESDAY/S SYSTEM
BRINGING IT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING. NO UPDATES FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON MONDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15-25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER DAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION. FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN THE
850-700MB LAYER SHOULD MIX DOWN TO BRING AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS TO
MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY. OTHERWISE ALL MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING
THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN OREGON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHERE THE ECM/GFS
DIVERGE FROM THE NAM IN THAT THE NAM TAKES THE S/W ENHANCED AREA
SEEN ON THE CURRENT IR SAT PICS OFF THE WEST COAST DUE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND INTO UTAH...ECM/GFS CONTINUE THE TREND
OF PUSHING IT INTO NW NEVADA THEN NE INTO CENTRAL IDAHO...THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS/0.10 INCHES/ AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW/ ABV 7000 FEET/ TO THE IDAHO ZONES WITH ONLY
AREAS OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS EASTERN OREGON.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OREGON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AREA EXPECTED. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE FASTER
GFS BRINGING IN A TROUGH FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE ECMWF TIMING OF
LATE SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...CR
PREV LONG TERM....JS/DD



000
FXUS65 KBOI 200240
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT FOR CLEAR AND MILD
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW FOLLOWING TODAY/S HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS TO NEAR 70 IN THE
MTNS. THE 18Z MODELS REMAIN LOCKED ON FOR TUESDAY/S SYSTEM
BRINGING IT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING. NO UPDATES FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON MONDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15-25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER DAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION. FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN THE
850-700MB LAYER SHOULD MIX DOWN TO BRING AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS TO
MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY. OTHERWISE ALL MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING
THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN OREGON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHERE THE ECM/GFS
DIVERGE FROM THE NAM IN THAT THE NAM TAKES THE S/W ENHANCED AREA
SEEN ON THE CURRENT IR SAT PICS OFF THE WEST COAST DUE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND INTO UTAH...ECM/GFS CONTINUE THE TREND
OF PUSHING IT INTO NW NEVADA THEN NE INTO CENTRAL IDAHO...THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS/0.10 INCHES/ AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW/ ABV 7000 FEET/ TO THE IDAHO ZONES WITH ONLY
AREAS OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS EASTERN OREGON.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OREGON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AREA EXPECTED. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE FASTER
GFS BRINGING IN A TROUGH FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE ECMWF TIMING OF
LATE SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...CR
PREV LONG TERM....JS/DD



000
FXUS66 KMFR 200042 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
542 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATED THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS...

.DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO
OUR OUTER WATERS AND IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE CLOUD FORMATION ALONG THE COAST SUGGEST
THERE ARE STRONG WINDS ALOFT. THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST LATE THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH MOST AREAS PICKING
UP BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH. FURTHER INLAND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER AND THE ROGUE VALLEY IS NOT LIKELY TO GET
ANYTHING MEASURABLE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND MONDAY MORNING WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION LIKELY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND
SOUTH COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING BETWEEN 1-2
INCHES. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE WESTSIDE
WITH 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH EXPECTED IN THE ROGUE VALLEY. WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER THE
MARINE WATERS, THERE`S A BETTER CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COOL
POOL ALOFT (500 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -22 AND -24C) MOVES OVERHEAD LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE, WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES ARE ALREADY STARTING TO
PICK UP AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT. PARTICULARLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SHASTA VALLEY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE WINDS ARE FAIRLY ALIGNED IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD MIX DOWN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WE SEE PEAK WIND GUST NEAR 45 MPH IN THE SOUTH END OF THE
SHASTA VALLEY. THUS, THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TOUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES.

CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND WINDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER TUESDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. RIGHT NOW
TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR. THE EC AND GEM SHOW THE FRONT KNOCKING
ON OUR DOORSTEP TUESDAY EVENING (THE GEM IS THE FASTEST OF THE
MODELS). IN CONTRAST, THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOWER AND DO NOT BRING
THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THEY
ARE ALL TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND THEY ARE SUGGESTING THE CORE OF
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS HEADING RIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON.
THIS IS LINING UP WELL WITH THE IVT TRANSPORT WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING THE CORE OF THIS TAKING AIM AT SOUTHWEST
OREGON. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
-PETRUCELLI

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY WILL BE A WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AS
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINS AIMED AT US AND A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH. THE FETCH OF THE MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY MEANS THAT THERE MAY BE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN ALONG THE CURRY
COAST AND MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS INTO THE SISKIYOUS. THERE ARE ONLY
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
THE GFS/GEM ON THURSDAY, BUT THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. I RAISED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY ON
THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO CREEP BACK IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS/GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER VERY WET FRONT FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
MORE DIGGING AND A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INTO THE COAST.
IT ALSO TAKES THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IN NORTH OF US. THIS IS THE
SAME THING IT DID LAST WEEK WITH OUR WED/THU FRONT. GIVEN THAT THE
GFS/GEM HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THAN THE ECMWS WITH THIS WEEK`S
SYSTEMS, I`M INCLINED TO LEAN IN THEIR DIRECTION FOR THE ACTION
LATER THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THUS I`VE ALSO RAISED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...20/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CEILINGS HAVE REACHED THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUNNY SKIES BUT ALSO BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS INLAND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SEND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS TO THE COAST BEGINNING AROUND 03Z THIS
EVENING. SKY CONDITION WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
WITH RAIN AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REACH ROSEBURG/KRBG AROUND 06Z
THEN MOVE TO THE ROGUE VALLEY AND SHASTA VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS BUT ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS CONDITION WILL BEGIN
AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY AND SHASTA VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN
AND MVFR CIGS EAST OF THE CASCADES INCLUDING KLAMATH FALLS/KLMT
MONDAY EVENING. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 530 PM PDT SUN 19 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH RAIN
AND MODERATE WIND WAVES THAT ARE LOCALLY HIGH WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. DESPITE THESE LARGE
WIND WAVES, THE LARGEST COMPONENT OF THE SEAS IS A BUILDING LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL AT 16 SECONDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT THEN A WEAKER FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME
MODERATE AGAIN FROM AROUND 9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. MEANTIME, THE WEST SWELL WILL BE CONTINUING TO BUILD WITH
PEAK COMBINED SEAS OF AROUND 16 FEET EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EVEN THOUGH BOTH SWELL HEIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL
REMAIN HIGH AND STEEP. THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO
APPROACH THEREAFTER WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING THEN POSSIBLY GALES
AND HEAVY SEAS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE WORSE
FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS NORTHWARD THAN TO THE SOUTH. /DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.

$$










000
FXUS66 KMFR 200042 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
542 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATED THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS...

.DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO
OUR OUTER WATERS AND IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE CLOUD FORMATION ALONG THE COAST SUGGEST
THERE ARE STRONG WINDS ALOFT. THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST LATE THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH MOST AREAS PICKING
UP BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH. FURTHER INLAND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER AND THE ROGUE VALLEY IS NOT LIKELY TO GET
ANYTHING MEASURABLE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND MONDAY MORNING WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION LIKELY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND
SOUTH COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING BETWEEN 1-2
INCHES. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE WESTSIDE
WITH 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH EXPECTED IN THE ROGUE VALLEY. WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER THE
MARINE WATERS, THERE`S A BETTER CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COOL
POOL ALOFT (500 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -22 AND -24C) MOVES OVERHEAD LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE, WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES ARE ALREADY STARTING TO
PICK UP AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT. PARTICULARLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SHASTA VALLEY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE WINDS ARE FAIRLY ALIGNED IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD MIX DOWN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WE SEE PEAK WIND GUST NEAR 45 MPH IN THE SOUTH END OF THE
SHASTA VALLEY. THUS, THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TOUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES.

CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND WINDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER TUESDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. RIGHT NOW
TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR. THE EC AND GEM SHOW THE FRONT KNOCKING
ON OUR DOORSTEP TUESDAY EVENING (THE GEM IS THE FASTEST OF THE
MODELS). IN CONTRAST, THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOWER AND DO NOT BRING
THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THEY
ARE ALL TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND THEY ARE SUGGESTING THE CORE OF
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS HEADING RIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON.
THIS IS LINING UP WELL WITH THE IVT TRANSPORT WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING THE CORE OF THIS TAKING AIM AT SOUTHWEST
OREGON. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
-PETRUCELLI

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY WILL BE A WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AS
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINS AIMED AT US AND A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH. THE FETCH OF THE MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY MEANS THAT THERE MAY BE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN ALONG THE CURRY
COAST AND MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS INTO THE SISKIYOUS. THERE ARE ONLY
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
THE GFS/GEM ON THURSDAY, BUT THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. I RAISED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY ON
THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO CREEP BACK IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS/GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER VERY WET FRONT FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
MORE DIGGING AND A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INTO THE COAST.
IT ALSO TAKES THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IN NORTH OF US. THIS IS THE
SAME THING IT DID LAST WEEK WITH OUR WED/THU FRONT. GIVEN THAT THE
GFS/GEM HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THAN THE ECMWS WITH THIS WEEK`S
SYSTEMS, I`M INCLINED TO LEAN IN THEIR DIRECTION FOR THE ACTION
LATER THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THUS I`VE ALSO RAISED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...20/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CEILINGS HAVE REACHED THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUNNY SKIES BUT ALSO BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS INLAND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SEND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS TO THE COAST BEGINNING AROUND 03Z THIS
EVENING. SKY CONDITION WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
WITH RAIN AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REACH ROSEBURG/KRBG AROUND 06Z
THEN MOVE TO THE ROGUE VALLEY AND SHASTA VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS BUT ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS CONDITION WILL BEGIN
AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY AND SHASTA VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN
AND MVFR CIGS EAST OF THE CASCADES INCLUDING KLAMATH FALLS/KLMT
MONDAY EVENING. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 530 PM PDT SUN 19 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH RAIN
AND MODERATE WIND WAVES THAT ARE LOCALLY HIGH WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. DESPITE THESE LARGE
WIND WAVES, THE LARGEST COMPONENT OF THE SEAS IS A BUILDING LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL AT 16 SECONDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT THEN A WEAKER FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME
MODERATE AGAIN FROM AROUND 9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. MEANTIME, THE WEST SWELL WILL BE CONTINUING TO BUILD WITH
PEAK COMBINED SEAS OF AROUND 16 FEET EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EVEN THOUGH BOTH SWELL HEIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL
REMAIN HIGH AND STEEP. THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO
APPROACH THEREAFTER WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING THEN POSSIBLY GALES
AND HEAVY SEAS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE WORSE
FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS NORTHWARD THAN TO THE SOUTH. /DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.

$$









000
FXUS66 KPDT 192342 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
440 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE COAST WILL GET PUSHED INLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE CASCADES TOWARD MORNING. THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. THE
CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT DROP
IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 6-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK. EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HEAVIER
RAIN IS LIKELY OVER THE CASCADES LATER IN THE DAY. 94

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM PERIOD
STARTS OFF VERY ACTIVE AS A WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY FLOW OF
PACIFIC/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE AIMED RIGHT AT THE PAC
NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE AMPLE
RAINFALL..ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES WHERE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL LIKELY BE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE`VE
BEEN EXPERIENCING RECENTLY...AS THEY WILL DROP BACK TO RIGHT AROUND
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING FROM
7000-8500 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOWN TO 5500-7500 FEET FOR THURSDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WE THEN CATCH A SHORT BREAK FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE ASHORE
LATE NEXT WEEKEND...PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
ONE THOUGH. 77

&&

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 20/11Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KYKM...KPSC AND KPDT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE FG/BR FORMING
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AT KALW MAINLY FROM 20/11-16Z...WENT LOW END MVFR
CIGS/VIS FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED INTO AT LEAST IFR
CATEGORY WITH THE NEXT UPDATE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS IN -SHRA/-RA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM
20/14-19Z AT KDLS...KRDM AND KBDN AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...LEFT EAST-CENTRAL TAF SITES DRY THROUGH 21/00Z. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  65  46  63 /   0  20  50  20
ALW  46  67  49  64 /   0  20  50  30
PSC  43  65  49  65 /   0  20  40  10
YKM  45  62  42  62 /   0  40  40  10
HRI  42  65  47  65 /   0  30  50  10
ELN  46  63  43  62 /  10  50  40  20
RDM  38  62  39  60 /  10  50  50  10
LGD  44  67  44  59 /   0  10  60  30
GCD  44  65  44  58 /   0  20  60  30
DLS  50  64  46  65 /  10  60  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/77/77







000
FXUS66 KPDT 192342 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
440 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE COAST WILL GET PUSHED INLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE CASCADES TOWARD MORNING. THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. THE
CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT DROP
IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 6-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK. EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HEAVIER
RAIN IS LIKELY OVER THE CASCADES LATER IN THE DAY. 94

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM PERIOD
STARTS OFF VERY ACTIVE AS A WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY FLOW OF
PACIFIC/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE AIMED RIGHT AT THE PAC
NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE AMPLE
RAINFALL..ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES WHERE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL LIKELY BE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE`VE
BEEN EXPERIENCING RECENTLY...AS THEY WILL DROP BACK TO RIGHT AROUND
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING FROM
7000-8500 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOWN TO 5500-7500 FEET FOR THURSDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WE THEN CATCH A SHORT BREAK FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE ASHORE
LATE NEXT WEEKEND...PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
ONE THOUGH. 77

&&

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 20/11Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KYKM...KPSC AND KPDT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE FG/BR FORMING
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AT KALW MAINLY FROM 20/11-16Z...WENT LOW END MVFR
CIGS/VIS FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED INTO AT LEAST IFR
CATEGORY WITH THE NEXT UPDATE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS IN -SHRA/-RA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM
20/14-19Z AT KDLS...KRDM AND KBDN AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...LEFT EAST-CENTRAL TAF SITES DRY THROUGH 21/00Z. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  65  46  63 /   0  20  50  20
ALW  46  67  49  64 /   0  20  50  30
PSC  43  65  49  65 /   0  20  40  10
YKM  45  62  42  62 /   0  40  40  10
HRI  42  65  47  65 /   0  30  50  10
ELN  46  63  43  62 /  10  50  40  20
RDM  38  62  39  60 /  10  50  50  10
LGD  44  67  44  59 /   0  10  60  30
GCD  44  65  44  58 /   0  20  60  30
DLS  50  64  46  65 /  10  60  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/77/77






000
FXUS66 KPDT 192342 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
440 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE COAST WILL GET PUSHED INLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE CASCADES TOWARD MORNING. THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. THE
CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT DROP
IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 6-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK. EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HEAVIER
RAIN IS LIKELY OVER THE CASCADES LATER IN THE DAY. 94

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM PERIOD
STARTS OFF VERY ACTIVE AS A WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY FLOW OF
PACIFIC/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE AIMED RIGHT AT THE PAC
NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE AMPLE
RAINFALL..ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES WHERE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL LIKELY BE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE`VE
BEEN EXPERIENCING RECENTLY...AS THEY WILL DROP BACK TO RIGHT AROUND
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING FROM
7000-8500 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOWN TO 5500-7500 FEET FOR THURSDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WE THEN CATCH A SHORT BREAK FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE ASHORE
LATE NEXT WEEKEND...PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
ONE THOUGH. 77

&&

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 20/11Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KYKM...KPSC AND KPDT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE FG/BR FORMING
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AT KALW MAINLY FROM 20/11-16Z...WENT LOW END MVFR
CIGS/VIS FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED INTO AT LEAST IFR
CATEGORY WITH THE NEXT UPDATE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS IN -SHRA/-RA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM
20/14-19Z AT KDLS...KRDM AND KBDN AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...LEFT EAST-CENTRAL TAF SITES DRY THROUGH 21/00Z. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  65  46  63 /   0  20  50  20
ALW  46  67  49  64 /   0  20  50  30
PSC  43  65  49  65 /   0  20  40  10
YKM  45  62  42  62 /   0  40  40  10
HRI  42  65  47  65 /   0  30  50  10
ELN  46  63  43  62 /  10  50  40  20
RDM  38  62  39  60 /  10  50  50  10
LGD  44  67  44  59 /   0  10  60  30
GCD  44  65  44  58 /   0  20  60  30
DLS  50  64  46  65 /  10  60  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/77/77






000
FXUS66 KPDT 192342 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
440 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE COAST WILL GET PUSHED INLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE CASCADES TOWARD MORNING. THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. THE
CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT DROP
IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 6-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK. EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HEAVIER
RAIN IS LIKELY OVER THE CASCADES LATER IN THE DAY. 94

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM PERIOD
STARTS OFF VERY ACTIVE AS A WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY FLOW OF
PACIFIC/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE AIMED RIGHT AT THE PAC
NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE AMPLE
RAINFALL..ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES WHERE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL LIKELY BE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE`VE
BEEN EXPERIENCING RECENTLY...AS THEY WILL DROP BACK TO RIGHT AROUND
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING FROM
7000-8500 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOWN TO 5500-7500 FEET FOR THURSDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WE THEN CATCH A SHORT BREAK FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE ASHORE
LATE NEXT WEEKEND...PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
ONE THOUGH. 77

&&

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 20/11Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KYKM...KPSC AND KPDT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE FG/BR FORMING
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AT KALW MAINLY FROM 20/11-16Z...WENT LOW END MVFR
CIGS/VIS FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED INTO AT LEAST IFR
CATEGORY WITH THE NEXT UPDATE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS IN -SHRA/-RA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM
20/14-19Z AT KDLS...KRDM AND KBDN AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...LEFT EAST-CENTRAL TAF SITES DRY THROUGH 21/00Z. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  65  46  63 /   0  20  50  20
ALW  46  67  49  64 /   0  20  50  30
PSC  43  65  49  65 /   0  20  40  10
YKM  45  62  42  62 /   0  40  40  10
HRI  42  65  47  65 /   0  30  50  10
ELN  46  63  43  62 /  10  50  40  20
RDM  38  62  39  60 /  10  50  50  10
LGD  44  67  44  59 /   0  10  60  30
GCD  44  65  44  58 /   0  20  60  30
DLS  50  64  46  65 /  10  60  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/77/77







000
FXUS66 KPQR 192141
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
241 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E PACIFIC WILL PUSH A SERIES OF
STORMS INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS WEEK. THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT TO SPREAD RAIN BACK INTO THE PACIFIC NW...AND PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON MON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST TUE
THEN SLOWLY DROP SE INTO WESTERN OREGON WED AND THU...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF EXTENDED WET WEATHER.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE INTERIOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY APPROACHING THE COAST. CLOUD BAND IS RELATIVELY
NARROW BUT SOLID...WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONTENT ON THE ORDER OF 1.25 INCHES AS IT MOVES ASHORE THIS EVENING.
DUE PRIMARILY TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE CATEGORICAL POPS AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND
TONIGHT AND EARLY MON. BEHIND THE FRONT THOUGH MODELS APPEAR TO BE
BACKING OFF ON THE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AS
THE S END OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER DOWN TOWARDS NORTHERN CA
MON NIGHT. WITH DYNAMICS HEADING S AND MODEL SOUNDINGS NOW
INDICATING LITTLE CAPE WILL BACK OFF ON POPS FOR MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE...AND PULL BACK THE AREAL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS A BIT
FURTHER S.

GFS AND ECWMF BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN DEPICTING THE
AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT OCCLUDED FRONT TUE. ECMWF
IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN SHOWING THE MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT
BETWEEN 290 AND 300K SURFACES PUSING IN PAST THE COAST RANGE OF NW
OREGON ...WHILE GFS IS SHOWING THE BEST ISNETROPICS LIFTING N OFF
THE COAST. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE A REASON TO FAVOR ONE OVER THE
OTHER...SO OVERALL WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW POPS SPREADING INLAND TUE
AFTERNOON OVER THE NAW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL BACK OFF
ON POPS A BIT INLAND. EVENTUALLY THOUGH TUE NIGHT INTO WED BOTH GFS
AND ECWMF PUSH THE OCCLUDED FRONT SE INTO NW OREGON. WIND FIELD
LOOKS A BIT STRONGER THAN EARLIER SYSTEMS TO THE POINT WHERE WE HAVE
TO START CONSIDERING HIGH WINDS FOR THE COAST TUE NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT THOUGH WITH SURFACE PRES GRADIENTS DOWN THE COAST ON THE ORDER
OF 10 TO 12 MB FORECAST BELIEVE IT IS LIKELY TO COME UP A BIT SHORT
OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THE STRONG WIND FIELD THOUGH COUPLED WITH
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AROUND AN INCH RESULT IN GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION FROM LATE TUE THROUGH
WED...MAKING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT SLOWS TO A
CRAWL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
BE GENERATED OFF PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC...CONTINUING TO GENERATE THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS THAT MOVE
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY EVERY OTHER DAY.  THIS KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST...BECAUSE AS ONE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES RIGHT BEHIND IT. THIS PATTERN APPEARS AS IF IT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY POOR AFTER
THURSDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS...THOUGH...HINT AT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS BROAD THERMAL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MVFR WITH RAIN ON COAST
BY 23Z AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. THIS RAIN AND MVFR WILL SPREAD
INLAND AFTER 03Z WITH RAIN MODERATE AT TIMES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
IFR VSBYS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND MVFR WITH
PATCHY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE INLAND AND MAINLY SOUTH OF KUAO-
KAST LINE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...WILL HAVE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...WITH
CIGS FALLING BELOW 4000 FEET AFT 03Z AND RAIN DEVELOPING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME POTENTIAL TO GET VSBYS 3 SM OR BELOW BUT HAVE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF 4-6 SM UNDER RA/BR. EXPECT SHOWERS AND MARGINAL CIGS
APPROACHING IFR BY 15Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT MID-DAY MONDAY BUT
SHOWERY ACTION WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME TCU EXPECTED. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BIG PICTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE STAYS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. EXPECT MULTIPLE FRONTS AND SMALLER SCALE PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO CROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEK.

THE FIRST COLD FRONT NOW INSIDE OF BUOY 89 WHERE CONDITIONS GOT
CLOSE TO GALES BUT HELD JUST SHORT. BUOY 29 CAME UP WITH GALE
GUSTS OF 37KT ON THE 2 PM OB BUT AM INTRIGUED TO SEE IF FOLLOWING
HOURS HOLD OR IF IT WAS A SHORT LIVED FEATURE. AM SEEING COASTAL
JET LIKE CONDITIONS BUT WITH INFREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 KT
AND ESPECIALLY DIMINISHING DOWN THE CENTRAL COASTLINE. THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WILL TELL THE TALE FOR SURE AS OVERALL GRADIENTS ARE
REMAINING VERY MUCH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND STILL DO NOT LOOK MUCH
LIKE THEY WILL OPEN UP GIVEN THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW CENTER IS
SOME DISTANCE TO THE NORTHWEST. BUOY 89 SAW WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISH
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE NO REASON TO DOUBT THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT PUSHES TOWARD SHORE THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS TO FALL BELOW 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD
EASILY SEE FREQUENT GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THEREAFTER ON MONDAY.

SEAS HAVE LARGELY PEAKED AROUND 14 FT AT BUOY 89 WITH THE OVERALL
FORECAST AND GUIDANCE ON WITHIN A FOOT OF EACH OTHER. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THIS 14 FOOT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DO
EXPECT ANOTHER STRONGER PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT TO CROSS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TO PUSH WINDS AND SEAS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN HAVE
BEEN SEEN THUS FAR WITH THE CURRENT FRONT. DETAILS ARE NOTABLY
DIFFERENT AMONG MODELS REGARDING THE ACTUAL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THE GRADIENTS AND WINDS. GFS IS STRONGEST WITH FASTEST TIMING AT
THIS POINT. AS SUCH...RAW ENP GUIDANCE IS GIVING A FEW HOUR BURST
OF SEAS AROUND 18 FT TUESDAY NIGHT. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 6 PM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 192141
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
241 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E PACIFIC WILL PUSH A SERIES OF
STORMS INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS WEEK. THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT TO SPREAD RAIN BACK INTO THE PACIFIC NW...AND PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON MON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST TUE
THEN SLOWLY DROP SE INTO WESTERN OREGON WED AND THU...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF EXTENDED WET WEATHER.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE INTERIOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY APPROACHING THE COAST. CLOUD BAND IS RELATIVELY
NARROW BUT SOLID...WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONTENT ON THE ORDER OF 1.25 INCHES AS IT MOVES ASHORE THIS EVENING.
DUE PRIMARILY TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE CATEGORICAL POPS AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND
TONIGHT AND EARLY MON. BEHIND THE FRONT THOUGH MODELS APPEAR TO BE
BACKING OFF ON THE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AS
THE S END OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER DOWN TOWARDS NORTHERN CA
MON NIGHT. WITH DYNAMICS HEADING S AND MODEL SOUNDINGS NOW
INDICATING LITTLE CAPE WILL BACK OFF ON POPS FOR MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE...AND PULL BACK THE AREAL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS A BIT
FURTHER S.

GFS AND ECWMF BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN DEPICTING THE
AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT OCCLUDED FRONT TUE. ECMWF
IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN SHOWING THE MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT
BETWEEN 290 AND 300K SURFACES PUSING IN PAST THE COAST RANGE OF NW
OREGON ...WHILE GFS IS SHOWING THE BEST ISNETROPICS LIFTING N OFF
THE COAST. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE A REASON TO FAVOR ONE OVER THE
OTHER...SO OVERALL WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW POPS SPREADING INLAND TUE
AFTERNOON OVER THE NAW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL BACK OFF
ON POPS A BIT INLAND. EVENTUALLY THOUGH TUE NIGHT INTO WED BOTH GFS
AND ECWMF PUSH THE OCCLUDED FRONT SE INTO NW OREGON. WIND FIELD
LOOKS A BIT STRONGER THAN EARLIER SYSTEMS TO THE POINT WHERE WE HAVE
TO START CONSIDERING HIGH WINDS FOR THE COAST TUE NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT THOUGH WITH SURFACE PRES GRADIENTS DOWN THE COAST ON THE ORDER
OF 10 TO 12 MB FORECAST BELIEVE IT IS LIKELY TO COME UP A BIT SHORT
OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THE STRONG WIND FIELD THOUGH COUPLED WITH
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AROUND AN INCH RESULT IN GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION FROM LATE TUE THROUGH
WED...MAKING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT SLOWS TO A
CRAWL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
BE GENERATED OFF PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC...CONTINUING TO GENERATE THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS THAT MOVE
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY EVERY OTHER DAY.  THIS KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST...BECAUSE AS ONE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES RIGHT BEHIND IT. THIS PATTERN APPEARS AS IF IT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY POOR AFTER
THURSDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS...THOUGH...HINT AT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS BROAD THERMAL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MVFR WITH RAIN ON COAST
BY 23Z AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. THIS RAIN AND MVFR WILL SPREAD
INLAND AFTER 03Z WITH RAIN MODERATE AT TIMES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
IFR VSBYS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND MVFR WITH
PATCHY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE INLAND AND MAINLY SOUTH OF KUAO-
KAST LINE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...WILL HAVE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...WITH
CIGS FALLING BELOW 4000 FEET AFT 03Z AND RAIN DEVELOPING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME POTENTIAL TO GET VSBYS 3 SM OR BELOW BUT HAVE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF 4-6 SM UNDER RA/BR. EXPECT SHOWERS AND MARGINAL CIGS
APPROACHING IFR BY 15Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT MID-DAY MONDAY BUT
SHOWERY ACTION WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME TCU EXPECTED. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BIG PICTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE STAYS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. EXPECT MULTIPLE FRONTS AND SMALLER SCALE PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO CROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEK.

THE FIRST COLD FRONT NOW INSIDE OF BUOY 89 WHERE CONDITIONS GOT
CLOSE TO GALES BUT HELD JUST SHORT. BUOY 29 CAME UP WITH GALE
GUSTS OF 37KT ON THE 2 PM OB BUT AM INTRIGUED TO SEE IF FOLLOWING
HOURS HOLD OR IF IT WAS A SHORT LIVED FEATURE. AM SEEING COASTAL
JET LIKE CONDITIONS BUT WITH INFREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 KT
AND ESPECIALLY DIMINISHING DOWN THE CENTRAL COASTLINE. THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WILL TELL THE TALE FOR SURE AS OVERALL GRADIENTS ARE
REMAINING VERY MUCH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND STILL DO NOT LOOK MUCH
LIKE THEY WILL OPEN UP GIVEN THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW CENTER IS
SOME DISTANCE TO THE NORTHWEST. BUOY 89 SAW WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISH
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE NO REASON TO DOUBT THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT PUSHES TOWARD SHORE THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS TO FALL BELOW 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD
EASILY SEE FREQUENT GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THEREAFTER ON MONDAY.

SEAS HAVE LARGELY PEAKED AROUND 14 FT AT BUOY 89 WITH THE OVERALL
FORECAST AND GUIDANCE ON WITHIN A FOOT OF EACH OTHER. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THIS 14 FOOT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DO
EXPECT ANOTHER STRONGER PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT TO CROSS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TO PUSH WINDS AND SEAS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN HAVE
BEEN SEEN THUS FAR WITH THE CURRENT FRONT. DETAILS ARE NOTABLY
DIFFERENT AMONG MODELS REGARDING THE ACTUAL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THE GRADIENTS AND WINDS. GFS IS STRONGEST WITH FASTEST TIMING AT
THIS POINT. AS SUCH...RAW ENP GUIDANCE IS GIVING A FEW HOUR BURST
OF SEAS AROUND 18 FT TUESDAY NIGHT. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 6 PM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KMFR 192130
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
230 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO
OUR OUTER WATERS AND IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE CLOUD FORMATION ALONG THE COAST SUGGEST
THERE ARE STRONG WINDS ALOFT. THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST LATE THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH MOST AREAS PICKING
UP BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH. FURTHER INLAND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER AND THE ROGUE VALLEY IS NOT LIKELY TO GET
ANYTHING MEASURABLE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND MONDAY MORNING WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION LIKELY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND
SOUTH COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING BETWEEN 1-2
INCHES. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE WESTSIDE
WITH 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH EXPECTED IN THE ROGUE VALLEY. WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER THE
MARINE WATERS, THERE`S A BETTER CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COOL
POOL ALOFT (500 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -22 AND -24C) MOVES OVERHEAD LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE, WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES ARE ALREADY STARTING TO
PICK UP AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT. PARTICULARLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SHASTA VALLEY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE WINDS ARE FAIRLY ALIGNED IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD MIX DOWN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WE SEE PEAK WIND GUST NEAR 45 MPH IN THE SOUTH END OF THE
SHASTA VALLEY. THUS, THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TOUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES.

CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND WINDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER TUESDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. RIGHT NOW
TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR. THE EC AND GEM SHOW THE FRONT KNOCKING
ON OUR DOORSTEP TUESDAY EVENING (THE GEM IS THE FASTEST OF THE
MODELS). IN CONTRAST, THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOWER AND DO NOT BRING
THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THEY
ARE ALL TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND THEY ARE SUGGESTING THE CORE OF
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS HEADING RIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON.
THIS IS LINING UP WELL WITH THE IVT TRANSPORT WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING THE CORE OF THIS TAKING AIM AT SOUTHWEST
OREGON. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
-PETRUCELLI

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY WILL BE A WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AS
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINS AIMED AT US AND A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH. THE FETCH OF THE MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY MEANS THAT THERE MAY BE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN ALONG THE CURRY
COAST AND MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS INTO THE SISKIYOUS. THERE ARE ONLY
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
THE GFS/GEM ON THURSDAY, BUT THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. I RAISED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY ON
THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO CREEP BACK IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS/GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER VERY WET FRONT FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
MORE DIGGING AND A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INTO THE COAST.
IT ALSO TAKES THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IN NORTH OF US. THIS IS THE
SAME THING IT DID LAST WEEK WITH OUR WED/THU FRONT. GIVEN THAT THE
GFS/GEM HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THAN THE ECMWS WITH THIS WEEK`S
SYSTEMS, I`M INCLINED TO LEAN IN THEIR DIRECTION FOR THE ACTION
LATER THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THUS I`VE ALSO RAISED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL. -WRIGHT


&&

.AVIATION...19/18Z TAF CYCLE...LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
CONTINUES AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AT THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS
FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND THEN INLAND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, SPREADING MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN WITH IT.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY THE USUALLY WINDIER SITES LIKE KOTH AND KLMT. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.

$$






000
FXUS66 KMFR 192130
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
230 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO
OUR OUTER WATERS AND IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE CLOUD FORMATION ALONG THE COAST SUGGEST
THERE ARE STRONG WINDS ALOFT. THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST LATE THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH MOST AREAS PICKING
UP BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH. FURTHER INLAND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER AND THE ROGUE VALLEY IS NOT LIKELY TO GET
ANYTHING MEASURABLE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND MONDAY MORNING WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION LIKELY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND
SOUTH COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING BETWEEN 1-2
INCHES. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE WESTSIDE
WITH 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH EXPECTED IN THE ROGUE VALLEY. WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER THE
MARINE WATERS, THERE`S A BETTER CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COOL
POOL ALOFT (500 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -22 AND -24C) MOVES OVERHEAD LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE, WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES ARE ALREADY STARTING TO
PICK UP AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT. PARTICULARLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SHASTA VALLEY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE WINDS ARE FAIRLY ALIGNED IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD MIX DOWN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WE SEE PEAK WIND GUST NEAR 45 MPH IN THE SOUTH END OF THE
SHASTA VALLEY. THUS, THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TOUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES.

CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND WINDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER TUESDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. RIGHT NOW
TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR. THE EC AND GEM SHOW THE FRONT KNOCKING
ON OUR DOORSTEP TUESDAY EVENING (THE GEM IS THE FASTEST OF THE
MODELS). IN CONTRAST, THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOWER AND DO NOT BRING
THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THEY
ARE ALL TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND THEY ARE SUGGESTING THE CORE OF
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS HEADING RIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON.
THIS IS LINING UP WELL WITH THE IVT TRANSPORT WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING THE CORE OF THIS TAKING AIM AT SOUTHWEST
OREGON. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
-PETRUCELLI

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY WILL BE A WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AS
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINS AIMED AT US AND A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH. THE FETCH OF THE MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY MEANS THAT THERE MAY BE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN ALONG THE CURRY
COAST AND MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS INTO THE SISKIYOUS. THERE ARE ONLY
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
THE GFS/GEM ON THURSDAY, BUT THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. I RAISED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY ON
THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO CREEP BACK IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS/GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER VERY WET FRONT FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
MORE DIGGING AND A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INTO THE COAST.
IT ALSO TAKES THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IN NORTH OF US. THIS IS THE
SAME THING IT DID LAST WEEK WITH OUR WED/THU FRONT. GIVEN THAT THE
GFS/GEM HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THAN THE ECMWS WITH THIS WEEK`S
SYSTEMS, I`M INCLINED TO LEAN IN THEIR DIRECTION FOR THE ACTION
LATER THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THUS I`VE ALSO RAISED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL. -WRIGHT


&&

.AVIATION...19/18Z TAF CYCLE...LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
CONTINUES AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AT THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS
FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND THEN INLAND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, SPREADING MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN WITH IT.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY THE USUALLY WINDIER SITES LIKE KOTH AND KLMT. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.

$$







000
FXUS66 KPDT 192127
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE COAST WILL GET PUSHED INLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE CASCADES TOWARD MORNING. THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. THE
CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT DROP
IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 6-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK. EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HEAVIER
RAIN IS LIKELY OVER THE CASCADES LATER IN THE DAY. 94

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM PERIOD
STARTS OFF VERY ACTIVE AS A WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY FLOW OF
PACIFIC/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE AIMED RIGHT AT THE PAC
NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE AMPLE
RAINFALL..ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES WHERE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL LIKELY BE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE`VE
BEEN EXPERIENCING RECENTLY...AS THEY WILL DROP BACK TO RIGHT AROUND
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING FROM
7000-8500 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOWN TO 5500-7500 FEET FOR THURSDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WE THEN CATCH A SHORT BREAK FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE ASHORE
LATE NEXT WEEKEND...PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
ONE THOUGH. 77

&&

AVIATION...18Z TAFS...INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 19/19-20Z AT KDLS AND ESPECIALLY KALW TAF
SITES...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE CWA WITH FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH 20/15Z...LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD START TO SPREAD
-SHRA/-RA INTO KDLS AFTER 20/12Z...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  65  46  63 /   0  20  50  20
ALW  46  67  49  64 /   0  20  50  30
PSC  43  65  49  65 /   0  20  40  10
YKM  45  62  42  62 /   0  40  40  10
HRI  42  65  47  65 /   0  30  50  10
ELN  46  63  43  62 /  10  50  40  20
RDM  38  62  39  60 /  10  50  50  10
LGD  44  67  44  59 /   0  10  60  30
GCD  44  65  44  58 /   0  20  60  30
DLS  50  64  46  65 /  10  60  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/77/77









000
FXUS65 KBOI 192033
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
233 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER DAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION. FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN THE
850-700MB LAYER SHOULD MIX DOWN TO BRING AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS TO
MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY. OTHERWISE ALL MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING
THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN OREGON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHERE THE ECM/GFS
DIVERGE FROM THE NAM IN THAT THE NAM TAKES THE S/W ENHANCED AREA
SEEN ON THE CURRENT IR SAT PICS OFF THE WEST COAST DUE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND INTO UTAH...ECM/GFS CONTINUE THE TREND
OF PUSHING IT INTO NW NEVADA THEN NE INTO CENTRAL IDAHO...THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS/0.10 INCHES/ AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW/ ABV 7000 FEET/ TO THE IDAHO ZONES WITH ONLY
AREAS OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS EASTERN OREGON.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OREGON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AREA EXPECTED. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE FASTER
GFS BRINGING IN A TROUGH FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE ECMWF TIMING OF
LATE SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT AND SOUTHWEST 10-20KT IN CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 15-25KT. CLOUDS INCREASING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...CR
LONG TERM....JS/DD
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 192033
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
233 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER DAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION. FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN THE
850-700MB LAYER SHOULD MIX DOWN TO BRING AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS TO
MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY. OTHERWISE ALL MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING
THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN OREGON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHERE THE ECM/GFS
DIVERGE FROM THE NAM IN THAT THE NAM TAKES THE S/W ENHANCED AREA
SEEN ON THE CURRENT IR SAT PICS OFF THE WEST COAST DUE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND INTO UTAH...ECM/GFS CONTINUE THE TREND
OF PUSHING IT INTO NW NEVADA THEN NE INTO CENTRAL IDAHO...THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS/0.10 INCHES/ AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW/ ABV 7000 FEET/ TO THE IDAHO ZONES WITH ONLY
AREAS OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS EASTERN OREGON.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OREGON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AREA EXPECTED. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE FASTER
GFS BRINGING IN A TROUGH FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE ECMWF TIMING OF
LATE SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT AND SOUTHWEST 10-20KT IN CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 15-25KT. CLOUDS INCREASING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...CR
LONG TERM....JS/DD
AVIATION.....JS




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