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000
FXUS66 KPQR 270410
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
910 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WAS SPREADING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS DECREASING
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE IN
THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
MUCH WARMER TEMPS...WITH AREAS INLAND POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON TUESDAY FOR SOME RAIN...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES
BEHIND THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD DRIER FLAT WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS ADVERTISED...NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN
SHOWING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND MOST OF NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING FROM THE EASTERN END OF A
PASSING WARM FRONT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY ON MONDAY...AND IS ALREADY
SHOWING THAT TREND IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST ZONES. THE ASSOCIATED
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BRING CLEARING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING..AS WELL AS A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING
AIR MASS THAT COULD PUSH SOME INLAND TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND
80. THE INCREASING MILD AIR MASS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD ALSO LEAD
TO SOME LOCAL FOG OR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT.

THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH SOME
RAIN OVER A GOOD PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST AMOUNTS WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
PASSES. BEHIND THE FRONT A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME MORE SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY
FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. SNOW LEVEL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE LOWERING BUT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT... WITH JUST A
COUPLE OF INCHES AT THE SKI RESORTS AND A SKIFF AT THE PASSES.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT
NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF
THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME. THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE
GENERAL PATTERN AND TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY
ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES.
DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONT HAS BROUGHT LOWERING CIGS INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR ALL TAF TERMINALS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE ALSO
SEEN PERIODIC IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG THE COAST AS SOME OF THE RAIN
BANDS CROSSED OVERHEAD. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z AT THE COAST WITH CIGS LIFTING A LITTLE EARLIER FOR THE
INLAND AREAS. LOW AND MID CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A VERY HIGH DECK REMAINING IN PLACE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A LITTLE WAYS OFF THE PACNW COAST.
THIS WILL INCREASE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE CASCADES
AND COULD PRODUCE SOME 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS AT KPDX AND KTTD TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COAST WILL PICK UP A BIT OF LOW STRATUS
ROUGHLY AFTER 28/00Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT
VISUAL APPROACHES. THINK THESE WILL BREAK UP AROUND 09Z TONIGHT AS A
FIRST GUESS BUT IT COULD BE AS LATE AS 12-15Z. VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES UNTIL THEN. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFT 18Z WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DRAMATICALLY EASED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS AND ARE MARGINAL OVER A SMALL AREA AT BEST AROUND BUOY
29. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS A BIT EARLY.
THE EASING WINDS LET SEAS EASE A BIT AS WELL BUT WILL CONTINUE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUE UNTIL 11 PM AS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL LARGELY STAY BELOW 10 KTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TUESDAY
EVENING REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FROM LOW PRESSURE SKIRTING NORTH AND ABOUT 300 NM
OFFSHORE. THEN EXPECT THE DYNAMIC SWELL TRAIN TO TRAIL THE WINDS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS WITH SEAS CLIMBING ABOVE 10 FEET TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK POTENTIALLY
CREATING THERMAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS COMMONLY BRINGS ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 270410
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
910 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WAS SPREADING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS DECREASING
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE IN
THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
MUCH WARMER TEMPS...WITH AREAS INLAND POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON TUESDAY FOR SOME RAIN...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES
BEHIND THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD DRIER FLAT WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS ADVERTISED...NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN
SHOWING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND MOST OF NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING FROM THE EASTERN END OF A
PASSING WARM FRONT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY ON MONDAY...AND IS ALREADY
SHOWING THAT TREND IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST ZONES. THE ASSOCIATED
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BRING CLEARING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING..AS WELL AS A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING
AIR MASS THAT COULD PUSH SOME INLAND TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND
80. THE INCREASING MILD AIR MASS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD ALSO LEAD
TO SOME LOCAL FOG OR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT.

THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH SOME
RAIN OVER A GOOD PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST AMOUNTS WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
PASSES. BEHIND THE FRONT A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME MORE SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY
FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. SNOW LEVEL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE LOWERING BUT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT... WITH JUST A
COUPLE OF INCHES AT THE SKI RESORTS AND A SKIFF AT THE PASSES.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT
NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF
THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME. THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE
GENERAL PATTERN AND TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY
ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES.
DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONT HAS BROUGHT LOWERING CIGS INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR ALL TAF TERMINALS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE ALSO
SEEN PERIODIC IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG THE COAST AS SOME OF THE RAIN
BANDS CROSSED OVERHEAD. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z AT THE COAST WITH CIGS LIFTING A LITTLE EARLIER FOR THE
INLAND AREAS. LOW AND MID CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A VERY HIGH DECK REMAINING IN PLACE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A LITTLE WAYS OFF THE PACNW COAST.
THIS WILL INCREASE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE CASCADES
AND COULD PRODUCE SOME 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS AT KPDX AND KTTD TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COAST WILL PICK UP A BIT OF LOW STRATUS
ROUGHLY AFTER 28/00Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT
VISUAL APPROACHES. THINK THESE WILL BREAK UP AROUND 09Z TONIGHT AS A
FIRST GUESS BUT IT COULD BE AS LATE AS 12-15Z. VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES UNTIL THEN. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFT 18Z WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DRAMATICALLY EASED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS AND ARE MARGINAL OVER A SMALL AREA AT BEST AROUND BUOY
29. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS A BIT EARLY.
THE EASING WINDS LET SEAS EASE A BIT AS WELL BUT WILL CONTINUE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUE UNTIL 11 PM AS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL LARGELY STAY BELOW 10 KTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TUESDAY
EVENING REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FROM LOW PRESSURE SKIRTING NORTH AND ABOUT 300 NM
OFFSHORE. THEN EXPECT THE DYNAMIC SWELL TRAIN TO TRAIL THE WINDS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS WITH SEAS CLIMBING ABOVE 10 FEET TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK POTENTIALLY
CREATING THERMAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS COMMONLY BRINGS ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 270410
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
910 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WAS SPREADING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS DECREASING
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE IN
THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
MUCH WARMER TEMPS...WITH AREAS INLAND POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON TUESDAY FOR SOME RAIN...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES
BEHIND THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD DRIER FLAT WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS ADVERTISED...NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN
SHOWING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND MOST OF NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING FROM THE EASTERN END OF A
PASSING WARM FRONT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY ON MONDAY...AND IS ALREADY
SHOWING THAT TREND IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST ZONES. THE ASSOCIATED
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BRING CLEARING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING..AS WELL AS A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING
AIR MASS THAT COULD PUSH SOME INLAND TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND
80. THE INCREASING MILD AIR MASS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD ALSO LEAD
TO SOME LOCAL FOG OR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT.

THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH SOME
RAIN OVER A GOOD PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST AMOUNTS WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
PASSES. BEHIND THE FRONT A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME MORE SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY
FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. SNOW LEVEL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE LOWERING BUT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT... WITH JUST A
COUPLE OF INCHES AT THE SKI RESORTS AND A SKIFF AT THE PASSES.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT
NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF
THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME. THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE
GENERAL PATTERN AND TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY
ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES.
DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONT HAS BROUGHT LOWERING CIGS INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR ALL TAF TERMINALS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE ALSO
SEEN PERIODIC IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG THE COAST AS SOME OF THE RAIN
BANDS CROSSED OVERHEAD. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z AT THE COAST WITH CIGS LIFTING A LITTLE EARLIER FOR THE
INLAND AREAS. LOW AND MID CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A VERY HIGH DECK REMAINING IN PLACE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A LITTLE WAYS OFF THE PACNW COAST.
THIS WILL INCREASE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE CASCADES
AND COULD PRODUCE SOME 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS AT KPDX AND KTTD TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COAST WILL PICK UP A BIT OF LOW STRATUS
ROUGHLY AFTER 28/00Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT
VISUAL APPROACHES. THINK THESE WILL BREAK UP AROUND 09Z TONIGHT AS A
FIRST GUESS BUT IT COULD BE AS LATE AS 12-15Z. VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES UNTIL THEN. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFT 18Z WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DRAMATICALLY EASED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS AND ARE MARGINAL OVER A SMALL AREA AT BEST AROUND BUOY
29. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS A BIT EARLY.
THE EASING WINDS LET SEAS EASE A BIT AS WELL BUT WILL CONTINUE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUE UNTIL 11 PM AS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL LARGELY STAY BELOW 10 KTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TUESDAY
EVENING REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FROM LOW PRESSURE SKIRTING NORTH AND ABOUT 300 NM
OFFSHORE. THEN EXPECT THE DYNAMIC SWELL TRAIN TO TRAIL THE WINDS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS WITH SEAS CLIMBING ABOVE 10 FEET TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK POTENTIALLY
CREATING THERMAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS COMMONLY BRINGS ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 270410
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
910 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WAS SPREADING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS DECREASING
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE IN
THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
MUCH WARMER TEMPS...WITH AREAS INLAND POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON TUESDAY FOR SOME RAIN...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES
BEHIND THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD DRIER FLAT WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS ADVERTISED...NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN
SHOWING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND MOST OF NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING FROM THE EASTERN END OF A
PASSING WARM FRONT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY ON MONDAY...AND IS ALREADY
SHOWING THAT TREND IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST ZONES. THE ASSOCIATED
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BRING CLEARING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING..AS WELL AS A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING
AIR MASS THAT COULD PUSH SOME INLAND TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND
80. THE INCREASING MILD AIR MASS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD ALSO LEAD
TO SOME LOCAL FOG OR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT.

THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH SOME
RAIN OVER A GOOD PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST AMOUNTS WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
PASSES. BEHIND THE FRONT A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME MORE SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY
FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. SNOW LEVEL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE LOWERING BUT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT... WITH JUST A
COUPLE OF INCHES AT THE SKI RESORTS AND A SKIFF AT THE PASSES.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT
NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF
THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME. THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE
GENERAL PATTERN AND TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY
ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES.
DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONT HAS BROUGHT LOWERING CIGS INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR ALL TAF TERMINALS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE ALSO
SEEN PERIODIC IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG THE COAST AS SOME OF THE RAIN
BANDS CROSSED OVERHEAD. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z AT THE COAST WITH CIGS LIFTING A LITTLE EARLIER FOR THE
INLAND AREAS. LOW AND MID CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A VERY HIGH DECK REMAINING IN PLACE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A LITTLE WAYS OFF THE PACNW COAST.
THIS WILL INCREASE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE CASCADES
AND COULD PRODUCE SOME 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS AT KPDX AND KTTD TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COAST WILL PICK UP A BIT OF LOW STRATUS
ROUGHLY AFTER 28/00Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT
VISUAL APPROACHES. THINK THESE WILL BREAK UP AROUND 09Z TONIGHT AS A
FIRST GUESS BUT IT COULD BE AS LATE AS 12-15Z. VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES UNTIL THEN. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFT 18Z WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DRAMATICALLY EASED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS AND ARE MARGINAL OVER A SMALL AREA AT BEST AROUND BUOY
29. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS A BIT EARLY.
THE EASING WINDS LET SEAS EASE A BIT AS WELL BUT WILL CONTINUE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUE UNTIL 11 PM AS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL LARGELY STAY BELOW 10 KTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TUESDAY
EVENING REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FROM LOW PRESSURE SKIRTING NORTH AND ABOUT 300 NM
OFFSHORE. THEN EXPECT THE DYNAMIC SWELL TRAIN TO TRAIL THE WINDS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS WITH SEAS CLIMBING ABOVE 10 FEET TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK POTENTIALLY
CREATING THERMAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS COMMONLY BRINGS ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 270410
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
910 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WAS SPREADING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS DECREASING
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE IN
THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
MUCH WARMER TEMPS...WITH AREAS INLAND POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON TUESDAY FOR SOME RAIN...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES
BEHIND THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD DRIER FLAT WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS ADVERTISED...NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN
SHOWING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND MOST OF NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING FROM THE EASTERN END OF A
PASSING WARM FRONT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY ON MONDAY...AND IS ALREADY
SHOWING THAT TREND IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST ZONES. THE ASSOCIATED
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BRING CLEARING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING..AS WELL AS A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING
AIR MASS THAT COULD PUSH SOME INLAND TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND
80. THE INCREASING MILD AIR MASS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD ALSO LEAD
TO SOME LOCAL FOG OR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT.

THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH SOME
RAIN OVER A GOOD PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST AMOUNTS WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
PASSES. BEHIND THE FRONT A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME MORE SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY
FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. SNOW LEVEL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE LOWERING BUT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT... WITH JUST A
COUPLE OF INCHES AT THE SKI RESORTS AND A SKIFF AT THE PASSES.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT
NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF
THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME. THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE
GENERAL PATTERN AND TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY
ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES.
DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONT HAS BROUGHT LOWERING CIGS INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR ALL TAF TERMINALS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE ALSO
SEEN PERIODIC IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG THE COAST AS SOME OF THE RAIN
BANDS CROSSED OVERHEAD. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z AT THE COAST WITH CIGS LIFTING A LITTLE EARLIER FOR THE
INLAND AREAS. LOW AND MID CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A VERY HIGH DECK REMAINING IN PLACE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A LITTLE WAYS OFF THE PACNW COAST.
THIS WILL INCREASE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE CASCADES
AND COULD PRODUCE SOME 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS AT KPDX AND KTTD TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COAST WILL PICK UP A BIT OF LOW STRATUS
ROUGHLY AFTER 28/00Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT
VISUAL APPROACHES. THINK THESE WILL BREAK UP AROUND 09Z TONIGHT AS A
FIRST GUESS BUT IT COULD BE AS LATE AS 12-15Z. VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES UNTIL THEN. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFT 18Z WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DRAMATICALLY EASED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS AND ARE MARGINAL OVER A SMALL AREA AT BEST AROUND BUOY
29. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS A BIT EARLY.
THE EASING WINDS LET SEAS EASE A BIT AS WELL BUT WILL CONTINUE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUE UNTIL 11 PM AS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL LARGELY STAY BELOW 10 KTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TUESDAY
EVENING REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FROM LOW PRESSURE SKIRTING NORTH AND ABOUT 300 NM
OFFSHORE. THEN EXPECT THE DYNAMIC SWELL TRAIN TO TRAIL THE WINDS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS WITH SEAS CLIMBING ABOVE 10 FEET TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK POTENTIALLY
CREATING THERMAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS COMMONLY BRINGS ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 270410
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
910 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WAS SPREADING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS DECREASING
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE IN
THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
MUCH WARMER TEMPS...WITH AREAS INLAND POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON TUESDAY FOR SOME RAIN...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES
BEHIND THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD DRIER FLAT WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS ADVERTISED...NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN
SHOWING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND MOST OF NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING FROM THE EASTERN END OF A
PASSING WARM FRONT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY ON MONDAY...AND IS ALREADY
SHOWING THAT TREND IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST ZONES. THE ASSOCIATED
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BRING CLEARING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING..AS WELL AS A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING
AIR MASS THAT COULD PUSH SOME INLAND TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND
80. THE INCREASING MILD AIR MASS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD ALSO LEAD
TO SOME LOCAL FOG OR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT.

THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH SOME
RAIN OVER A GOOD PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST AMOUNTS WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
PASSES. BEHIND THE FRONT A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME MORE SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY
FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. SNOW LEVEL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE LOWERING BUT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT... WITH JUST A
COUPLE OF INCHES AT THE SKI RESORTS AND A SKIFF AT THE PASSES.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT
NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF
THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME. THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE
GENERAL PATTERN AND TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY
ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES.
DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONT HAS BROUGHT LOWERING CIGS INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR ALL TAF TERMINALS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE ALSO
SEEN PERIODIC IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG THE COAST AS SOME OF THE RAIN
BANDS CROSSED OVERHEAD. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z AT THE COAST WITH CIGS LIFTING A LITTLE EARLIER FOR THE
INLAND AREAS. LOW AND MID CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A VERY HIGH DECK REMAINING IN PLACE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A LITTLE WAYS OFF THE PACNW COAST.
THIS WILL INCREASE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE CASCADES
AND COULD PRODUCE SOME 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS AT KPDX AND KTTD TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COAST WILL PICK UP A BIT OF LOW STRATUS
ROUGHLY AFTER 28/00Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT
VISUAL APPROACHES. THINK THESE WILL BREAK UP AROUND 09Z TONIGHT AS A
FIRST GUESS BUT IT COULD BE AS LATE AS 12-15Z. VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES UNTIL THEN. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFT 18Z WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DRAMATICALLY EASED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS AND ARE MARGINAL OVER A SMALL AREA AT BEST AROUND BUOY
29. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS A BIT EARLY.
THE EASING WINDS LET SEAS EASE A BIT AS WELL BUT WILL CONTINUE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUE UNTIL 11 PM AS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL LARGELY STAY BELOW 10 KTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TUESDAY
EVENING REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FROM LOW PRESSURE SKIRTING NORTH AND ABOUT 300 NM
OFFSHORE. THEN EXPECT THE DYNAMIC SWELL TRAIN TO TRAIL THE WINDS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS WITH SEAS CLIMBING ABOVE 10 FEET TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK POTENTIALLY
CREATING THERMAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS COMMONLY BRINGS ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMFR 270407
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
905 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT THAT RESULTED IN QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
CAUSE 850MB TEMPERATURES TO WARM A HEFTY 10C/18F OVER 24 HOURS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO ABOUT A 15F JUMP IN TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUT THE DAYTIME HIGHS
15-20F ABOVE NORMAL.

A FAIRLY DRY FRONT MOVING IN ON TUESDAY WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
CLIMB AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH
AS WHAT WE EXPECT TOMORROW. THEREAFTER, IT APPEARS IT WILL COOL
OFF. EXCEPT FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST
SIDE ON TUESDAY, IT`S LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WEEKEND, WHEN SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
CASCADES. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE AT THE COOS COUNTY COAST UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. PARTIAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IS POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD...MOSTLY IN THE
COAST RANGE. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST AND IN UMPQUA VALLEY TO PRODUCE AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS NEAR
ROSEBURG AND NORTH BEND. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. FB/BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT SUNDAY, APR 26, 2015...THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A BRIEF AND WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT BUT NORTH
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.  SOUTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAIRLY WEAK
COLD FRONT. STRONGER NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN
SUGGESTS GALES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. /FB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 139 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...26/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST. IT WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...AND THAT IS
BRINGING SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA...MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES
WEST. THE COASTAL WATERS AND COAST WILL GET SOME SPOTTY VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ONE RAWS STATION...CHARLOTTE RIDGE...REPORTED
0.01 INCHES AS OF 1208 PDT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH VERY WARM INLAND
TEMPERATURES. AT LOW LEVELS...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND
OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...BRINGING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
COMING WEEK TO THOSE AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE EAST SIDE TUESDAY...AND THAT
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
CASCADES WHERE IT WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS MONDAY...BUT STILL
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL BE DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE WEAKENING
LONG WAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST SIDE AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE STORM TRACK WILL HAVE
MIGRATED TO THE NORTH BY THIS TIME AND IT WILL JUST BRUSH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MEDFORD CWA. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AND WHAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE MEDFORD CWA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WEEK FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BUT THE
UMPQUA BASIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY WEAK EVENT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS,
MODELS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO FIND A BIT MORE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM.
HOWEVER, THE SOLUTIONS TODAY ARE QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT THAN
YESTERDAY, WHICH WAS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE DAY BEFORE THAT.
DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES, THE TREND IS CLEAR: A DRY LONG TERM
FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONSIDERING
THE RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS,
HAVE RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR TODAY`S FORECAST PACKAGE.

WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST, AND RIDGING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, THE WEST COAST IS SET UP TO RESIDE UNDER
A WEAK, BUT RATHER PERSISTENT TROUGH THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THERE
APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FLOW, WHICH STAYS WELL
TO OUR NORTH, AND VIRTUALLY NO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS LEADS ME
TO KEEP THINGS ON THE DRY SIDE, ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDINESS
IS LIKELY THROUGH EACH DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, AS THE ECMWF RESOLVES MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SIERRAS, AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SIDE, MOSTLY OVER MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE, AND THE WEAK TROUGH OVERHEAD, HAVE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/15/BPN/FJB



000
FXUS66 KMFR 270407
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
905 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT THAT RESULTED IN QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
CAUSE 850MB TEMPERATURES TO WARM A HEFTY 10C/18F OVER 24 HOURS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO ABOUT A 15F JUMP IN TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUT THE DAYTIME HIGHS
15-20F ABOVE NORMAL.

A FAIRLY DRY FRONT MOVING IN ON TUESDAY WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
CLIMB AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH
AS WHAT WE EXPECT TOMORROW. THEREAFTER, IT APPEARS IT WILL COOL
OFF. EXCEPT FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST
SIDE ON TUESDAY, IT`S LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WEEKEND, WHEN SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
CASCADES. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE AT THE COOS COUNTY COAST UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. PARTIAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IS POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD...MOSTLY IN THE
COAST RANGE. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST AND IN UMPQUA VALLEY TO PRODUCE AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS NEAR
ROSEBURG AND NORTH BEND. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. FB/BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT SUNDAY, APR 26, 2015...THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A BRIEF AND WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT BUT NORTH
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.  SOUTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAIRLY WEAK
COLD FRONT. STRONGER NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN
SUGGESTS GALES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. /FB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 139 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...26/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST. IT WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...AND THAT IS
BRINGING SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA...MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES
WEST. THE COASTAL WATERS AND COAST WILL GET SOME SPOTTY VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ONE RAWS STATION...CHARLOTTE RIDGE...REPORTED
0.01 INCHES AS OF 1208 PDT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH VERY WARM INLAND
TEMPERATURES. AT LOW LEVELS...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND
OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...BRINGING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
COMING WEEK TO THOSE AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE EAST SIDE TUESDAY...AND THAT
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
CASCADES WHERE IT WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS MONDAY...BUT STILL
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL BE DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE WEAKENING
LONG WAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST SIDE AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE STORM TRACK WILL HAVE
MIGRATED TO THE NORTH BY THIS TIME AND IT WILL JUST BRUSH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MEDFORD CWA. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AND WHAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE MEDFORD CWA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WEEK FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BUT THE
UMPQUA BASIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY WEAK EVENT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS,
MODELS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO FIND A BIT MORE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM.
HOWEVER, THE SOLUTIONS TODAY ARE QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT THAN
YESTERDAY, WHICH WAS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE DAY BEFORE THAT.
DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES, THE TREND IS CLEAR: A DRY LONG TERM
FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONSIDERING
THE RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS,
HAVE RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR TODAY`S FORECAST PACKAGE.

WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST, AND RIDGING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, THE WEST COAST IS SET UP TO RESIDE UNDER
A WEAK, BUT RATHER PERSISTENT TROUGH THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THERE
APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FLOW, WHICH STAYS WELL
TO OUR NORTH, AND VIRTUALLY NO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS LEADS ME
TO KEEP THINGS ON THE DRY SIDE, ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDINESS
IS LIKELY THROUGH EACH DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, AS THE ECMWF RESOLVES MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SIERRAS, AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SIDE, MOSTLY OVER MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE, AND THE WEAK TROUGH OVERHEAD, HAVE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/15/BPN/FJB




000
FXUS66 KMFR 270407
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
905 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT THAT RESULTED IN QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
CAUSE 850MB TEMPERATURES TO WARM A HEFTY 10C/18F OVER 24 HOURS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO ABOUT A 15F JUMP IN TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUT THE DAYTIME HIGHS
15-20F ABOVE NORMAL.

A FAIRLY DRY FRONT MOVING IN ON TUESDAY WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
CLIMB AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH
AS WHAT WE EXPECT TOMORROW. THEREAFTER, IT APPEARS IT WILL COOL
OFF. EXCEPT FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST
SIDE ON TUESDAY, IT`S LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WEEKEND, WHEN SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
CASCADES. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE AT THE COOS COUNTY COAST UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. PARTIAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IS POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD...MOSTLY IN THE
COAST RANGE. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST AND IN UMPQUA VALLEY TO PRODUCE AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS NEAR
ROSEBURG AND NORTH BEND. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. FB/BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT SUNDAY, APR 26, 2015...THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A BRIEF AND WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT BUT NORTH
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.  SOUTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAIRLY WEAK
COLD FRONT. STRONGER NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN
SUGGESTS GALES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. /FB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 139 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...26/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST. IT WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...AND THAT IS
BRINGING SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA...MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES
WEST. THE COASTAL WATERS AND COAST WILL GET SOME SPOTTY VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ONE RAWS STATION...CHARLOTTE RIDGE...REPORTED
0.01 INCHES AS OF 1208 PDT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH VERY WARM INLAND
TEMPERATURES. AT LOW LEVELS...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND
OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...BRINGING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
COMING WEEK TO THOSE AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE EAST SIDE TUESDAY...AND THAT
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
CASCADES WHERE IT WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS MONDAY...BUT STILL
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL BE DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE WEAKENING
LONG WAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST SIDE AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE STORM TRACK WILL HAVE
MIGRATED TO THE NORTH BY THIS TIME AND IT WILL JUST BRUSH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MEDFORD CWA. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AND WHAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE MEDFORD CWA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WEEK FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BUT THE
UMPQUA BASIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY WEAK EVENT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS,
MODELS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO FIND A BIT MORE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM.
HOWEVER, THE SOLUTIONS TODAY ARE QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT THAN
YESTERDAY, WHICH WAS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE DAY BEFORE THAT.
DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES, THE TREND IS CLEAR: A DRY LONG TERM
FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONSIDERING
THE RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS,
HAVE RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR TODAY`S FORECAST PACKAGE.

WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST, AND RIDGING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, THE WEST COAST IS SET UP TO RESIDE UNDER
A WEAK, BUT RATHER PERSISTENT TROUGH THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THERE
APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FLOW, WHICH STAYS WELL
TO OUR NORTH, AND VIRTUALLY NO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS LEADS ME
TO KEEP THINGS ON THE DRY SIDE, ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDINESS
IS LIKELY THROUGH EACH DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, AS THE ECMWF RESOLVES MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SIERRAS, AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SIDE, MOSTLY OVER MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE, AND THE WEAK TROUGH OVERHEAD, HAVE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/15/BPN/FJB



000
FXUS66 KMFR 270405
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
905 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT THAT RESULTED IN QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
CAUSE 850MB TEMPERATURES TO WARM A HEFTY 10C/18F OVER 24 HOURS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO ABOUT A 15F JUMP IN TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUT THE DAYTIME HIGHS
15-20F ABOVE NORMAL.

A FAIRLY DRY FRONT MOVING IN ON TUESDAY WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
CLIMB AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH
AS WHAT WE EXPECT TOMORROW. THEREAFTER, IT APPEARS IT WILL COOL
OFF. EXCEPT FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WEST SIDE ON TUESDAY, IT`S LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE AT THE COOS COUNTY COAST UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. PARTIAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IS POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD...MOSTLY IN THE
COAST RANGE. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST AND IN UMPQUA VALLEY TO PRODUCE AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS NEAR
ROSEBURG AND NORTH BEND. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. FB/BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT SUNDAY, APR 26, 2015...THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A BRIEF AND WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT BUT NORTH
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.  SOUTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAIRLY WEAK
COLD FRONT. STRONGER NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN
SUGGESTS GALES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. /FB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 139 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...26/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST. IT WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...AND THAT IS
BRINGING SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA...MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES
WEST. THE COASTAL WATERS AND COAST WILL GET SOME SPOTTY VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ONE RAWS STATION...CHARLOTTE RIDGE...REPORTED
0.01 INCHES AS OF 1208 PDT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH VERY WARM INLAND
TEMPERATURES. AT LOW LEVELS...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND
OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...BRINGING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
COMING WEEK TO THOSE AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE EAST SIDE TUESDAY...AND THAT
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
CASCADES WHERE IT WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS MONDAY...BUT STILL
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL BE DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE WEAKENING
LONG WAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST SIDE AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE STORM TRACK WILL HAVE
MIGRATED TO THE NORTH BY THIS TIME AND IT WILL JUST BRUSH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MEDFORD CWA. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AND WHAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE MEDFORD CWA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WEEK FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BUT THE
UMPQUA BASIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY WEAK EVENT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS,
MODELS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO FIND A BIT MORE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM.
HOWEVER, THE SOLUTIONS TODAY ARE QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT THAN
YESTERDAY, WHICH WAS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE DAY BEFORE THAT.
DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES, THE TREND IS CLEAR: A DRY LONG TERM
FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONSIDERING
THE RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS,
HAVE RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR TODAY`S FORECAST PACKAGE.

WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST, AND RIDGING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, THE WEST COAST IS SET UP TO RESIDE UNDER
A WEAK, BUT RATHER PERSISTENT TROUGH THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THERE
APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FLOW, WHICH STAYS WELL
TO OUR NORTH, AND VIRTUALLY NO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS LEADS ME
TO KEEP THINGS ON THE DRY SIDE, ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDINESS
IS LIKELY THROUGH EACH DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, AS THE ECMWF RESOLVES MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SIERRAS, AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SIDE, MOSTLY OVER MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE, AND THE WEAK TROUGH OVERHEAD, HAVE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/15/BPN/FJB



000
FXUS66 KMFR 270405
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
905 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT THAT RESULTED IN QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
CAUSE 850MB TEMPERATURES TO WARM A HEFTY 10C/18F OVER 24 HOURS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO ABOUT A 15F JUMP IN TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUT THE DAYTIME HIGHS
15-20F ABOVE NORMAL.

A FAIRLY DRY FRONT MOVING IN ON TUESDAY WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
CLIMB AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH
AS WHAT WE EXPECT TOMORROW. THEREAFTER, IT APPEARS IT WILL COOL
OFF. EXCEPT FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WEST SIDE ON TUESDAY, IT`S LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE AT THE COOS COUNTY COAST UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. PARTIAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IS POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD...MOSTLY IN THE
COAST RANGE. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST AND IN UMPQUA VALLEY TO PRODUCE AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS NEAR
ROSEBURG AND NORTH BEND. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. FB/BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT SUNDAY, APR 26, 2015...THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A BRIEF AND WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT BUT NORTH
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.  SOUTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAIRLY WEAK
COLD FRONT. STRONGER NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN
SUGGESTS GALES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. /FB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 139 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...26/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST. IT WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...AND THAT IS
BRINGING SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA...MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES
WEST. THE COASTAL WATERS AND COAST WILL GET SOME SPOTTY VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ONE RAWS STATION...CHARLOTTE RIDGE...REPORTED
0.01 INCHES AS OF 1208 PDT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH VERY WARM INLAND
TEMPERATURES. AT LOW LEVELS...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND
OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...BRINGING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
COMING WEEK TO THOSE AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE EAST SIDE TUESDAY...AND THAT
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
CASCADES WHERE IT WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS MONDAY...BUT STILL
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL BE DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE WEAKENING
LONG WAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST SIDE AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE STORM TRACK WILL HAVE
MIGRATED TO THE NORTH BY THIS TIME AND IT WILL JUST BRUSH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MEDFORD CWA. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AND WHAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE MEDFORD CWA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WEEK FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BUT THE
UMPQUA BASIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY WEAK EVENT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS,
MODELS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO FIND A BIT MORE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM.
HOWEVER, THE SOLUTIONS TODAY ARE QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT THAN
YESTERDAY, WHICH WAS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE DAY BEFORE THAT.
DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES, THE TREND IS CLEAR: A DRY LONG TERM
FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONSIDERING
THE RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS,
HAVE RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR TODAY`S FORECAST PACKAGE.

WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST, AND RIDGING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, THE WEST COAST IS SET UP TO RESIDE UNDER
A WEAK, BUT RATHER PERSISTENT TROUGH THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THERE
APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FLOW, WHICH STAYS WELL
TO OUR NORTH, AND VIRTUALLY NO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS LEADS ME
TO KEEP THINGS ON THE DRY SIDE, ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDINESS
IS LIKELY THROUGH EACH DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, AS THE ECMWF RESOLVES MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SIERRAS, AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SIDE, MOSTLY OVER MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE, AND THE WEAK TROUGH OVERHEAD, HAVE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/15/BPN/FJB



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPDT 270352 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
845 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE MOVING THROUGH A
RIDGE OF A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACNW. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER INTO TOMORROW WITH
DECREASING SHOWERS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. OTHER
THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES...THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING UP THE
COAST. THIS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE CASCADE CREST
OVERNIGHT BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES MONDAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES OVER
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BUT EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME BREEZY WEST
WINDS AND SOME LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES DROP AROUND 10
DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLER BUT MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOW...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS BEEN POOR. MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN RECENT RUNS BUT DETAILS HAVE VARIED AS IS
COMMON IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS...
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS MAY LINGER
FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE...I LEFT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SINCE DAYTIME HEATING
AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN WESTERLY FLOW CAN TRIGGER SHOWERS WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES.  COONFIELD

AVIATION...0Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH THIS EVENING
IN CENTRAL OR/WA WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY AOA 8 KFT AGL. CU NEAR
KPDT/KALW WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. ALL AREAS CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER 15Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  70  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  41  74  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  38  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  37  73  45  76 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  39  75  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  35  73  42  73 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  30  76  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  32  69  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  34  74  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  40  79  46  73 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/99/99



000
FXUS66 KPDT 270352 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
845 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE MOVING THROUGH A
RIDGE OF A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACNW. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER INTO TOMORROW WITH
DECREASING SHOWERS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. OTHER
THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES...THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING UP THE
COAST. THIS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE CASCADE CREST
OVERNIGHT BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES MONDAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES OVER
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BUT EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME BREEZY WEST
WINDS AND SOME LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES DROP AROUND 10
DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLER BUT MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOW...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS BEEN POOR. MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN RECENT RUNS BUT DETAILS HAVE VARIED AS IS
COMMON IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS...
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS MAY LINGER
FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE...I LEFT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SINCE DAYTIME HEATING
AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN WESTERLY FLOW CAN TRIGGER SHOWERS WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES.  COONFIELD

AVIATION...0Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH THIS EVENING
IN CENTRAL OR/WA WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY AOA 8 KFT AGL. CU NEAR
KPDT/KALW WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. ALL AREAS CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER 15Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  70  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  41  74  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  38  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  37  73  45  76 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  39  75  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  35  73  42  73 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  30  76  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  32  69  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  34  74  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  40  79  46  73 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/99/99




000
FXUS66 KPDT 270352 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
845 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE MOVING THROUGH A
RIDGE OF A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACNW. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER INTO TOMORROW WITH
DECREASING SHOWERS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. OTHER
THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES...THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING UP THE
COAST. THIS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE CASCADE CREST
OVERNIGHT BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES MONDAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES OVER
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BUT EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME BREEZY WEST
WINDS AND SOME LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES DROP AROUND 10
DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLER BUT MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOW...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS BEEN POOR. MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN RECENT RUNS BUT DETAILS HAVE VARIED AS IS
COMMON IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS...
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS MAY LINGER
FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE...I LEFT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SINCE DAYTIME HEATING
AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN WESTERLY FLOW CAN TRIGGER SHOWERS WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES.  COONFIELD

AVIATION...0Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH THIS EVENING
IN CENTRAL OR/WA WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY AOA 8 KFT AGL. CU NEAR
KPDT/KALW WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. ALL AREAS CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER 15Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  70  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  41  74  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  38  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  37  73  45  76 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  39  75  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  35  73  42  73 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  30  76  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  32  69  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  34  74  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  40  79  46  73 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/99/99



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 270300
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
900 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SPOTS OF FROST TONIGHT
THEN WARM UP TO NEAR 80 ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AS IN CURRENT FORECAST. SPLIT WINDOW IR SHOWED
STRATUS EAST OF A MCCALL-IDAHO CITY LINE AS OF 840 PM THAT HAD
SHIFTED EAST THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE.
HIGH CLOUDINESS FILTERING IN FROM THE NW ON THE EAST FLANK OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED NE BY THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BY MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE WARMEST
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SINCE LAST OCTOBER ACROSS MOST SE
OREGON AND SW IDAHO. FORECAST ON TRACK FOR NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS...STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN 27/3-6Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...NORTHERLY 10-20 KTS...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY 5-15 KTS AFTER
27/18Z...LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 28/0Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WAS RESULTING IN NW WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
FROM BOISE TO TWIN FALLS. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS /EAST OF MCCALL AND IDAHO CITY/ BY THIS EVENING AS DRIER
STABLE AIR ACCOMPANIES A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION MONDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY.
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE WITH THE RIDGE...WITH HIGHS WARMING
5-15 DEGREES ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. SOME
VALLEY HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 80 DEGREES ON TUESDAY...BUT WELL SHORT
OF RECORDS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PUSHED EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA PUSHES A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS COLD FRONT PASSAGE. DRY
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
STEADY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 270300
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
900 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SPOTS OF FROST TONIGHT
THEN WARM UP TO NEAR 80 ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AS IN CURRENT FORECAST. SPLIT WINDOW IR SHOWED
STRATUS EAST OF A MCCALL-IDAHO CITY LINE AS OF 840 PM THAT HAD
SHIFTED EAST THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE.
HIGH CLOUDINESS FILTERING IN FROM THE NW ON THE EAST FLANK OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED NE BY THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BY MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE WARMEST
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SINCE LAST OCTOBER ACROSS MOST SE
OREGON AND SW IDAHO. FORECAST ON TRACK FOR NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS...STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN 27/3-6Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...NORTHERLY 10-20 KTS...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY 5-15 KTS AFTER
27/18Z...LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 28/0Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WAS RESULTING IN NW WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
FROM BOISE TO TWIN FALLS. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS /EAST OF MCCALL AND IDAHO CITY/ BY THIS EVENING AS DRIER
STABLE AIR ACCOMPANIES A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION MONDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY.
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE WITH THE RIDGE...WITH HIGHS WARMING
5-15 DEGREES ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. SOME
VALLEY HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 80 DEGREES ON TUESDAY...BUT WELL SHORT
OF RECORDS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PUSHED EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA PUSHES A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS COLD FRONT PASSAGE. DRY
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
STEADY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 270300
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
900 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SPOTS OF FROST TONIGHT
THEN WARM UP TO NEAR 80 ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AS IN CURRENT FORECAST. SPLIT WINDOW IR SHOWED
STRATUS EAST OF A MCCALL-IDAHO CITY LINE AS OF 840 PM THAT HAD
SHIFTED EAST THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE.
HIGH CLOUDINESS FILTERING IN FROM THE NW ON THE EAST FLANK OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED NE BY THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BY MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE WARMEST
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SINCE LAST OCTOBER ACROSS MOST SE
OREGON AND SW IDAHO. FORECAST ON TRACK FOR NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS...STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN 27/3-6Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...NORTHERLY 10-20 KTS...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY 5-15 KTS AFTER
27/18Z...LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 28/0Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WAS RESULTING IN NW WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
FROM BOISE TO TWIN FALLS. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS /EAST OF MCCALL AND IDAHO CITY/ BY THIS EVENING AS DRIER
STABLE AIR ACCOMPANIES A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION MONDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY.
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE WITH THE RIDGE...WITH HIGHS WARMING
5-15 DEGREES ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. SOME
VALLEY HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 80 DEGREES ON TUESDAY...BUT WELL SHORT
OF RECORDS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PUSHED EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA PUSHES A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS COLD FRONT PASSAGE. DRY
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
STEADY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA/WH




000
FXUS66 KPDT 262309 CCA
AFDPDT

FXUS66 KPDT DDHHMM
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
317 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING UP THE
COAST. THIS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE CASCADE CREST
OVERNIGHT BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES MONDAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES OVER
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BUT EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME BREEZY WEST
WINDS AND SOME LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES DROP AROUND 10
DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLER BUT MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOW...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS BEEN POOR. MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN RECENT RUNS BUT DETAILS HAVE VARIED AS IS
COMMON IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS...
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS MAY LINGER
FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE...I LEFT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SINCE DAYTIME HEATING
AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN WESTERLY FLOW CAN TRIGGER SHOWERS WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...0Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH THIS EVENING
IN CENTRAL OR/WA WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY AOA 8 KFT AGL. CU NEAR
KPDT/KALW WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. ALL AREAS CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER 15Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  38  70  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  41  74  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  38  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  37  73  45  76 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  39  75  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  35  73  42  73 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  30  76  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  35  69  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  34  74  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  40  79  46  73 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/76/76



000
FXUS66 KPDT 262309 CCA
AFDPDT

FXUS66 KPDT DDHHMM
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
317 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING UP THE
COAST. THIS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE CASCADE CREST
OVERNIGHT BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES MONDAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES OVER
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BUT EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME BREEZY WEST
WINDS AND SOME LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES DROP AROUND 10
DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLER BUT MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOW...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS BEEN POOR. MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN RECENT RUNS BUT DETAILS HAVE VARIED AS IS
COMMON IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS...
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS MAY LINGER
FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE...I LEFT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SINCE DAYTIME HEATING
AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN WESTERLY FLOW CAN TRIGGER SHOWERS WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...0Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH THIS EVENING
IN CENTRAL OR/WA WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY AOA 8 KFT AGL. CU NEAR
KPDT/KALW WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. ALL AREAS CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER 15Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  38  70  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  41  74  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  38  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  37  73  45  76 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  39  75  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  35  73  42  73 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  30  76  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  35  69  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  34  74  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  40  79  46  73 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/76/76



000
FXUS66 KPDT 262309 CCA
AFDPDT

FXUS66 KPDT DDHHMM
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
317 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING UP THE
COAST. THIS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE CASCADE CREST
OVERNIGHT BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES MONDAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES OVER
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BUT EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME BREEZY WEST
WINDS AND SOME LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES DROP AROUND 10
DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLER BUT MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOW...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS BEEN POOR. MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN RECENT RUNS BUT DETAILS HAVE VARIED AS IS
COMMON IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS...
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS MAY LINGER
FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE...I LEFT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SINCE DAYTIME HEATING
AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN WESTERLY FLOW CAN TRIGGER SHOWERS WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...0Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH THIS EVENING
IN CENTRAL OR/WA WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY AOA 8 KFT AGL. CU NEAR
KPDT/KALW WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. ALL AREAS CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER 15Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  38  70  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  41  74  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  38  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  37  73  45  76 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  39  75  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  35  73  42  73 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  30  76  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  35  69  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  34  74  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  40  79  46  73 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/76/76



000
FXUS66 KPDT 262309 CCA
AFDPDT

FXUS66 KPDT DDHHMM
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
317 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING UP THE
COAST. THIS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE CASCADE CREST
OVERNIGHT BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES MONDAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES OVER
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BUT EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME BREEZY WEST
WINDS AND SOME LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES DROP AROUND 10
DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLER BUT MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOW...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS BEEN POOR. MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN RECENT RUNS BUT DETAILS HAVE VARIED AS IS
COMMON IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS...
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS MAY LINGER
FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE...I LEFT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SINCE DAYTIME HEATING
AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN WESTERLY FLOW CAN TRIGGER SHOWERS WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...0Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH THIS EVENING
IN CENTRAL OR/WA WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY AOA 8 KFT AGL. CU NEAR
KPDT/KALW WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. ALL AREAS CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER 15Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  38  70  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  41  74  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  38  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  37  73  45  76 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  39  75  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  35  73  42  73 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  30  76  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  35  69  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  34  74  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  40  79  46  73 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/76/76



000
FXUS66 KPDT 262309 CCA
AFDPDT

FXUS66 KPDT DDHHMM
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
317 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING UP THE
COAST. THIS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE CASCADE CREST
OVERNIGHT BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES MONDAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES OVER
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BUT EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME BREEZY WEST
WINDS AND SOME LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES DROP AROUND 10
DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLER BUT MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOW...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS BEEN POOR. MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN RECENT RUNS BUT DETAILS HAVE VARIED AS IS
COMMON IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS...
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS MAY LINGER
FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE...I LEFT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SINCE DAYTIME HEATING
AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN WESTERLY FLOW CAN TRIGGER SHOWERS WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...0Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH THIS EVENING
IN CENTRAL OR/WA WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY AOA 8 KFT AGL. CU NEAR
KPDT/KALW WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. ALL AREAS CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER 15Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  38  70  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  41  74  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  38  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  37  73  45  76 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  39  75  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  35  73  42  73 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  30  76  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  35  69  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  34  74  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  40  79  46  73 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/76/76



000
FXUS66 KPDT 262309 CCA
AFDPDT

FXUS66 KPDT DDHHMM
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
317 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING UP THE
COAST. THIS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE CASCADE CREST
OVERNIGHT BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES MONDAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES OVER
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BUT EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME BREEZY WEST
WINDS AND SOME LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES DROP AROUND 10
DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLER BUT MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOW...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS BEEN POOR. MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN RECENT RUNS BUT DETAILS HAVE VARIED AS IS
COMMON IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS...
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS MAY LINGER
FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE...I LEFT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SINCE DAYTIME HEATING
AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN WESTERLY FLOW CAN TRIGGER SHOWERS WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...0Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH THIS EVENING
IN CENTRAL OR/WA WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY AOA 8 KFT AGL. CU NEAR
KPDT/KALW WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. ALL AREAS CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER 15Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  38  70  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  41  74  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  38  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  37  73  45  76 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  39  75  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  35  73  42  73 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  30  76  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  35  69  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  34  74  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  40  79  46  73 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/76/76




000
FXUS66 KPDT 262217 AAA
AFDPDT

FXUS66 KPDT DDHHMM
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
317 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOW...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS BEEN POOR. MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN RECENT RUNS BUT DETAILS HAVE VARIED AS IS
COMMON IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS...
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS MAY LINGER
FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE...I LEFT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SINCE DAYTIME HEATING
AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN WESTERLY FLOW CAN TRIGGER SHOWERS WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...0Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH THIS EVENING
IN CENTRAL OR/WA WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY AOA 8 KFT AGL. CU NEAR
KPDT/KALW WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. ALL AREAS CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER 15Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  38  70  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  41  74  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  38  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  37  73  45  76 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  39  75  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  35  73  42  73 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  30  76  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  35  69  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  34  74  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  40  79  46  73 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/76/76




000
FXUS66 KPDT 262217 AAA
AFDPDT

FXUS66 KPDT DDHHMM
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
317 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOW...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS BEEN POOR. MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN RECENT RUNS BUT DETAILS HAVE VARIED AS IS
COMMON IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS...
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS MAY LINGER
FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE...I LEFT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SINCE DAYTIME HEATING
AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN WESTERLY FLOW CAN TRIGGER SHOWERS WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...0Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH THIS EVENING
IN CENTRAL OR/WA WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY AOA 8 KFT AGL. CU NEAR
KPDT/KALW WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. ALL AREAS CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER 15Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  38  70  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  41  74  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  38  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  37  73  45  76 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  39  75  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  35  73  42  73 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  30  76  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  35  69  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  34  74  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  40  79  46  73 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/76/76



000
FXUS66 KPDT 262217 AAA
AFDPDT

FXUS66 KPDT DDHHMM
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
317 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOW...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS BEEN POOR. MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN RECENT RUNS BUT DETAILS HAVE VARIED AS IS
COMMON IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS...
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS MAY LINGER
FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE...I LEFT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SINCE DAYTIME HEATING
AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN WESTERLY FLOW CAN TRIGGER SHOWERS WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...0Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH THIS EVENING
IN CENTRAL OR/WA WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY AOA 8 KFT AGL. CU NEAR
KPDT/KALW WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. ALL AREAS CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER 15Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  38  70  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  41  74  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  38  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  37  73  45  76 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  39  75  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  35  73  42  73 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  30  76  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  35  69  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  34  74  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  40  79  46  73 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/76/76




000
FXUS66 KPQR 262114
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
213 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A VERY SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WARMER WEATHER FOR MON. COOLER WITH
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUE...AND LAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING RATHER MOIST WARM
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THIS AM. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING A DECREASING
TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. SO WILL MODIFY
RAIN THREAT TO BE JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN ALONG COAST N AND E INTO
THE COAST RANGE AND WILLAPA HILLS. WILL MAINTAIN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF BURST OF VERY LIGHT RAIN FURTHER INLAND THIS
EVENING FROM SALEM NORTHWARD. SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY TO SOUTH OF
SALEM...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH N OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
TAKE RAIN THREAT N AS WELL. OVER NW OREGON...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
BREAK UP LATER TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT CLIMATOLOGY
WOULD FAVOR SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS RATHER THAN FOG. EITHER WAY...BOTH
WOULD NOT LAST LONG ON MON AM. WITH REGION UNDER A WARM AIR MASS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL SEE A VERY MILD DAY FOR MON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST...AND WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80
FOR INLAND VALLEYS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW SUGGEST TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HOLD
OFF THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS WENT WITH THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTION...AND
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND...STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  ROCKEAGLE

.LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE
STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME.
THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE GENERAL PATTERN AND
TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT
SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE
COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES. DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY
REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...INLAND TAF SITES WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER
AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4000 FT.
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 02Z FOR AREAS
NORTH OF KSLE. LOW STRATUS COULD BRING MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR VALLEY...BUT TIMING AND EXTENT HEAVILY
DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS TURN VFR UNDER SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
MON AFTERNOON.

COASTAL TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR
CIGS AND VSBY...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF IFR CIGS THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
04Z. LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO BRING CONTINUED MVFR CIGS EARLY MON
MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TURN VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 4000 FT. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z. CONDITIONS TURN VFR UNDER SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS MON AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT CONTINUED
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BECOMING 10 TO 15 KT BY
TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE NE PAC ON MON BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS MON NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS TO 25 KT
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. HIGH PRES RETURNS WED...WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY BUILDING OVER THE S OREGON COAST. THIS COULD
BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS LATE THIS WEEK.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CHOPPY AND
OCCASIONALLY STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN ON MON NIGHT AS THE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
LOOK TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 11 FT LATE TUE AND WED BEFORE
FALLING TO AROUND 7 FT LATE WED AND REMAINING BELOW 10 FT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR
       THIS EVENING ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 262114
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
213 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A VERY SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WARMER WEATHER FOR MON. COOLER WITH
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUE...AND LAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING RATHER MOIST WARM
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THIS AM. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING A DECREASING
TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. SO WILL MODIFY
RAIN THREAT TO BE JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN ALONG COAST N AND E INTO
THE COAST RANGE AND WILLAPA HILLS. WILL MAINTAIN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF BURST OF VERY LIGHT RAIN FURTHER INLAND THIS
EVENING FROM SALEM NORTHWARD. SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY TO SOUTH OF
SALEM...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH N OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
TAKE RAIN THREAT N AS WELL. OVER NW OREGON...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
BREAK UP LATER TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT CLIMATOLOGY
WOULD FAVOR SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS RATHER THAN FOG. EITHER WAY...BOTH
WOULD NOT LAST LONG ON MON AM. WITH REGION UNDER A WARM AIR MASS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL SEE A VERY MILD DAY FOR MON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST...AND WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80
FOR INLAND VALLEYS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW SUGGEST TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HOLD
OFF THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS WENT WITH THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTION...AND
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND...STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  ROCKEAGLE

.LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE
STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME.
THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE GENERAL PATTERN AND
TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT
SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE
COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES. DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY
REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...INLAND TAF SITES WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER
AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4000 FT.
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 02Z FOR AREAS
NORTH OF KSLE. LOW STRATUS COULD BRING MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR VALLEY...BUT TIMING AND EXTENT HEAVILY
DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS TURN VFR UNDER SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
MON AFTERNOON.

COASTAL TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR
CIGS AND VSBY...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF IFR CIGS THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
04Z. LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO BRING CONTINUED MVFR CIGS EARLY MON
MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TURN VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 4000 FT. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z. CONDITIONS TURN VFR UNDER SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS MON AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT CONTINUED
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BECOMING 10 TO 15 KT BY
TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE NE PAC ON MON BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS MON NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS TO 25 KT
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. HIGH PRES RETURNS WED...WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY BUILDING OVER THE S OREGON COAST. THIS COULD
BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS LATE THIS WEEK.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CHOPPY AND
OCCASIONALLY STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN ON MON NIGHT AS THE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
LOOK TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 11 FT LATE TUE AND WED BEFORE
FALLING TO AROUND 7 FT LATE WED AND REMAINING BELOW 10 FT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR
       THIS EVENING ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 262114
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
213 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A VERY SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WARMER WEATHER FOR MON. COOLER WITH
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUE...AND LAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING RATHER MOIST WARM
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THIS AM. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING A DECREASING
TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. SO WILL MODIFY
RAIN THREAT TO BE JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN ALONG COAST N AND E INTO
THE COAST RANGE AND WILLAPA HILLS. WILL MAINTAIN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF BURST OF VERY LIGHT RAIN FURTHER INLAND THIS
EVENING FROM SALEM NORTHWARD. SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY TO SOUTH OF
SALEM...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH N OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
TAKE RAIN THREAT N AS WELL. OVER NW OREGON...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
BREAK UP LATER TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT CLIMATOLOGY
WOULD FAVOR SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS RATHER THAN FOG. EITHER WAY...BOTH
WOULD NOT LAST LONG ON MON AM. WITH REGION UNDER A WARM AIR MASS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL SEE A VERY MILD DAY FOR MON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST...AND WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80
FOR INLAND VALLEYS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW SUGGEST TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HOLD
OFF THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS WENT WITH THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTION...AND
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND...STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  ROCKEAGLE

.LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE
STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME.
THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE GENERAL PATTERN AND
TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT
SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE
COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES. DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY
REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...INLAND TAF SITES WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER
AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4000 FT.
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 02Z FOR AREAS
NORTH OF KSLE. LOW STRATUS COULD BRING MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR VALLEY...BUT TIMING AND EXTENT HEAVILY
DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS TURN VFR UNDER SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
MON AFTERNOON.

COASTAL TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR
CIGS AND VSBY...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF IFR CIGS THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
04Z. LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO BRING CONTINUED MVFR CIGS EARLY MON
MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TURN VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 4000 FT. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z. CONDITIONS TURN VFR UNDER SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS MON AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT CONTINUED
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BECOMING 10 TO 15 KT BY
TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE NE PAC ON MON BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS MON NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS TO 25 KT
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. HIGH PRES RETURNS WED...WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY BUILDING OVER THE S OREGON COAST. THIS COULD
BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS LATE THIS WEEK.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CHOPPY AND
OCCASIONALLY STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN ON MON NIGHT AS THE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
LOOK TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 11 FT LATE TUE AND WED BEFORE
FALLING TO AROUND 7 FT LATE WED AND REMAINING BELOW 10 FT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR
       THIS EVENING ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 262114
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
213 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A VERY SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WARMER WEATHER FOR MON. COOLER WITH
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUE...AND LAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING RATHER MOIST WARM
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THIS AM. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING A DECREASING
TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. SO WILL MODIFY
RAIN THREAT TO BE JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN ALONG COAST N AND E INTO
THE COAST RANGE AND WILLAPA HILLS. WILL MAINTAIN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF BURST OF VERY LIGHT RAIN FURTHER INLAND THIS
EVENING FROM SALEM NORTHWARD. SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY TO SOUTH OF
SALEM...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH N OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
TAKE RAIN THREAT N AS WELL. OVER NW OREGON...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
BREAK UP LATER TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT CLIMATOLOGY
WOULD FAVOR SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS RATHER THAN FOG. EITHER WAY...BOTH
WOULD NOT LAST LONG ON MON AM. WITH REGION UNDER A WARM AIR MASS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL SEE A VERY MILD DAY FOR MON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST...AND WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80
FOR INLAND VALLEYS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW SUGGEST TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HOLD
OFF THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS WENT WITH THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTION...AND
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND...STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  ROCKEAGLE

.LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE
STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME.
THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE GENERAL PATTERN AND
TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT
SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE
COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES. DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY
REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...INLAND TAF SITES WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER
AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4000 FT.
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 02Z FOR AREAS
NORTH OF KSLE. LOW STRATUS COULD BRING MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR VALLEY...BUT TIMING AND EXTENT HEAVILY
DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS TURN VFR UNDER SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
MON AFTERNOON.

COASTAL TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR
CIGS AND VSBY...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF IFR CIGS THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
04Z. LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO BRING CONTINUED MVFR CIGS EARLY MON
MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TURN VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 4000 FT. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z. CONDITIONS TURN VFR UNDER SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS MON AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT CONTINUED
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BECOMING 10 TO 15 KT BY
TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE NE PAC ON MON BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS MON NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS TO 25 KT
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. HIGH PRES RETURNS WED...WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY BUILDING OVER THE S OREGON COAST. THIS COULD
BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS LATE THIS WEEK.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CHOPPY AND
OCCASIONALLY STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN ON MON NIGHT AS THE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
LOOK TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 11 FT LATE TUE AND WED BEFORE
FALLING TO AROUND 7 FT LATE WED AND REMAINING BELOW 10 FT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR
       THIS EVENING ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 262114
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
213 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A VERY SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WARMER WEATHER FOR MON. COOLER WITH
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUE...AND LAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING RATHER MOIST WARM
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THIS AM. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING A DECREASING
TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. SO WILL MODIFY
RAIN THREAT TO BE JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN ALONG COAST N AND E INTO
THE COAST RANGE AND WILLAPA HILLS. WILL MAINTAIN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF BURST OF VERY LIGHT RAIN FURTHER INLAND THIS
EVENING FROM SALEM NORTHWARD. SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY TO SOUTH OF
SALEM...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH N OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
TAKE RAIN THREAT N AS WELL. OVER NW OREGON...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
BREAK UP LATER TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT CLIMATOLOGY
WOULD FAVOR SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS RATHER THAN FOG. EITHER WAY...BOTH
WOULD NOT LAST LONG ON MON AM. WITH REGION UNDER A WARM AIR MASS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL SEE A VERY MILD DAY FOR MON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST...AND WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80
FOR INLAND VALLEYS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW SUGGEST TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HOLD
OFF THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS WENT WITH THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTION...AND
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND...STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  ROCKEAGLE

.LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE
STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME.
THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE GENERAL PATTERN AND
TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT
SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE
COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES. DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY
REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...INLAND TAF SITES WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER
AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4000 FT.
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 02Z FOR AREAS
NORTH OF KSLE. LOW STRATUS COULD BRING MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR VALLEY...BUT TIMING AND EXTENT HEAVILY
DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS TURN VFR UNDER SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
MON AFTERNOON.

COASTAL TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR
CIGS AND VSBY...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF IFR CIGS THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
04Z. LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO BRING CONTINUED MVFR CIGS EARLY MON
MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TURN VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 4000 FT. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z. CONDITIONS TURN VFR UNDER SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS MON AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT CONTINUED
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BECOMING 10 TO 15 KT BY
TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE NE PAC ON MON BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS MON NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS TO 25 KT
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. HIGH PRES RETURNS WED...WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY BUILDING OVER THE S OREGON COAST. THIS COULD
BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS LATE THIS WEEK.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CHOPPY AND
OCCASIONALLY STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN ON MON NIGHT AS THE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
LOOK TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 11 FT LATE TUE AND WED BEFORE
FALLING TO AROUND 7 FT LATE WED AND REMAINING BELOW 10 FT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR
       THIS EVENING ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 262111
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
211 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING UP THE
COAST. THIS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE CASCADE CREST
OVERNIGHT BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES MONDAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES OVER
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BUT EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME BREEZY WEST
WINDS AND SOME LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES DROP AROUND 10
DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLER BUT MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOW...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS BEEN POOR. MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN RECENT RUNS BUT DETAILS HAVE VARIED AS IS
COMMON IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS...
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS MAY LINGER
FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE...I LEFT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SINCE DAYTIME HEATING
AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN WESTERLY FLOW CAN TRIGGER SHOWERS WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES.  COONFIELD


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY 6-10 KFT AGL. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
15Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
76


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  38  70  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  41  74  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  38  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  37  73  45  76 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  39  75  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  35  73  42  73 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  30  76  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  35  69  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  34  74  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  40  79  46  73 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/76/76




000
FXUS66 KPDT 262111
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
211 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING UP THE
COAST. THIS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE CASCADE CREST
OVERNIGHT BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES MONDAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES OVER
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BUT EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME BREEZY WEST
WINDS AND SOME LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES DROP AROUND 10
DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLER BUT MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOW...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS BEEN POOR. MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN RECENT RUNS BUT DETAILS HAVE VARIED AS IS
COMMON IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS...
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS MAY LINGER
FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE...I LEFT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SINCE DAYTIME HEATING
AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN WESTERLY FLOW CAN TRIGGER SHOWERS WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES.  COONFIELD


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY 6-10 KFT AGL. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
15Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
76


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  38  70  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  41  74  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  38  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  37  73  45  76 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  39  75  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  35  73  42  73 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  30  76  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  35  69  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  34  74  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  40  79  46  73 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/76/76



000
FXUS65 KBOI 262043
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
243 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WAS RESULTING IN NW WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
FROM BOISE TO TWIN FALLS. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS /EAST OF MCCALL AND IDAHO CITY/ BY THIS EVENING AS DRIER
STABLE AIR ACCOMPANIES A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION MONDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY.
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE WITH THE RIDGE...WITH HIGHS WARMING
5-15 DEGREES ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. SOME
VALLEY HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 80 DEGREES ON TUESDAY...BUT WELL SHORT
OF RECORDS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PUSHED EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA PUSHES A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS COLD FRONT PASSAGE. DRY
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
STEADY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 35KT IN MAGIC AND UPPER TREASURE VALLEYS...SUBSIDING
AFTER SUNSET. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NW 15-25KT BECOMING
NORTHERLY 5- 15KT BY 12Z/MON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA/WH
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 262043
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
243 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WAS RESULTING IN NW WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
FROM BOISE TO TWIN FALLS. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS /EAST OF MCCALL AND IDAHO CITY/ BY THIS EVENING AS DRIER
STABLE AIR ACCOMPANIES A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION MONDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY.
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE WITH THE RIDGE...WITH HIGHS WARMING
5-15 DEGREES ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. SOME
VALLEY HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 80 DEGREES ON TUESDAY...BUT WELL SHORT
OF RECORDS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PUSHED EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA PUSHES A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS COLD FRONT PASSAGE. DRY
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
STEADY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 35KT IN MAGIC AND UPPER TREASURE VALLEYS...SUBSIDING
AFTER SUNSET. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NW 15-25KT BECOMING
NORTHERLY 5- 15KT BY 12Z/MON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA/WH
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS66 KMFR 262039
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
139 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...26/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST. IT WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...AND THAT IS
BRINGING SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA...MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES
WEST. THE COASTAL WATERS AND COAST WILL GET SOME SPOTTY VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ONE RAWS STATION...CHARLOTTE RIDGE...REPORTED
0.01 INCHES AS OF 1208 PDT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH VERY WARM INLAND
TEMPERATURES. AT LOW LEVELS...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND
OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...BRINGING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
COMING WEEK TO THOSE AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE EAST SIDE TUESDAY...AND THAT
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
CASCADES WHERE IT WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS MONDAY...BUT STILL
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL BE DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE WEAKENING
LONG WAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST SIDE AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE STORM TRACK WILL HAVE
MIGRATED TO THE NORTH BY THIS TIME AND IT WILL JUST BRUSH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MEDFORD CWA. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AND WHAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE MEDFORD CWA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WEEK FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BUT THE
UMPQUA BASIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY WEAK EVENT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS,
MODELS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO FIND A BIT MORE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM.
HOWEVER, THE SOLUTIONS TODAY ARE QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT THAN
YESTERDAY, WHICH WAS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE DAY BEFORE THAT.
DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES, THE TREND IS CLEAR: A DRY LONG TERM
FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONSIDERING
THE RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS,
HAVE RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR TODAY`S FORECAST PACKAGE.

WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST, AND RIDGING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, THE WEST COAST IS SET UP TO RESIDE UNDER
A WEAK, BUT RATHER PERSISTENT TROUGH THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THERE
APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FLOW, WHICH STAYS WELL
TO OUR NORTH, AND VIRTUALLY NO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS LEADS ME
TO KEEP THINGS ON THE DRY SIDE, ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDINESS
IS LIKELY THROUGH EACH DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, AS THE ECMWF RESOLVES MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SIERRAS, AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SIDE, MOSTLY OVER MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE, AND THE WEAK TROUGH OVERHEAD, HAVE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/18Z TAF CYCLE... VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO
AFFECT THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
IS POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD...MOSTLY IN THE COAST
RANGE.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST AND IN UMPQUA VALLEY TO PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS NEAR ROSEBURG
AND NORTH BEND. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. -BPN/SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT SUNDAY, APR 26, 2015...THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A BRIEF AND WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT BUT NORTH
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.  SOUTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAIRLY WEAK
COLD FRONT. STRONGER NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN
SUGGESTS GALES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/11/08



000
FXUS66 KMFR 262039
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
139 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...26/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST. IT WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...AND THAT IS
BRINGING SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA...MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES
WEST. THE COASTAL WATERS AND COAST WILL GET SOME SPOTTY VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ONE RAWS STATION...CHARLOTTE RIDGE...REPORTED
0.01 INCHES AS OF 1208 PDT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH VERY WARM INLAND
TEMPERATURES. AT LOW LEVELS...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND
OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...BRINGING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
COMING WEEK TO THOSE AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE EAST SIDE TUESDAY...AND THAT
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
CASCADES WHERE IT WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS MONDAY...BUT STILL
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL BE DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE WEAKENING
LONG WAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST SIDE AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE STORM TRACK WILL HAVE
MIGRATED TO THE NORTH BY THIS TIME AND IT WILL JUST BRUSH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MEDFORD CWA. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AND WHAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE MEDFORD CWA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WEEK FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BUT THE
UMPQUA BASIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY WEAK EVENT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS,
MODELS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO FIND A BIT MORE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM.
HOWEVER, THE SOLUTIONS TODAY ARE QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT THAN
YESTERDAY, WHICH WAS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE DAY BEFORE THAT.
DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES, THE TREND IS CLEAR: A DRY LONG TERM
FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONSIDERING
THE RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS,
HAVE RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR TODAY`S FORECAST PACKAGE.

WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST, AND RIDGING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, THE WEST COAST IS SET UP TO RESIDE UNDER
A WEAK, BUT RATHER PERSISTENT TROUGH THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THERE
APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FLOW, WHICH STAYS WELL
TO OUR NORTH, AND VIRTUALLY NO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS LEADS ME
TO KEEP THINGS ON THE DRY SIDE, ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDINESS
IS LIKELY THROUGH EACH DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, AS THE ECMWF RESOLVES MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SIERRAS, AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SIDE, MOSTLY OVER MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE, AND THE WEAK TROUGH OVERHEAD, HAVE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/18Z TAF CYCLE... VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO
AFFECT THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
IS POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD...MOSTLY IN THE COAST
RANGE.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST AND IN UMPQUA VALLEY TO PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS NEAR ROSEBURG
AND NORTH BEND. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. -BPN/SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT SUNDAY, APR 26, 2015...THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A BRIEF AND WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT BUT NORTH
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.  SOUTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAIRLY WEAK
COLD FRONT. STRONGER NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN
SUGGESTS GALES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/11/08




000
FXUS66 KMFR 262039
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
139 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...26/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST. IT WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...AND THAT IS
BRINGING SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA...MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES
WEST. THE COASTAL WATERS AND COAST WILL GET SOME SPOTTY VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ONE RAWS STATION...CHARLOTTE RIDGE...REPORTED
0.01 INCHES AS OF 1208 PDT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH VERY WARM INLAND
TEMPERATURES. AT LOW LEVELS...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND
OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...BRINGING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
COMING WEEK TO THOSE AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE EAST SIDE TUESDAY...AND THAT
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
CASCADES WHERE IT WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS MONDAY...BUT STILL
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL BE DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE WEAKENING
LONG WAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST SIDE AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE STORM TRACK WILL HAVE
MIGRATED TO THE NORTH BY THIS TIME AND IT WILL JUST BRUSH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MEDFORD CWA. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AND WHAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE MEDFORD CWA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WEEK FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BUT THE
UMPQUA BASIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY WEAK EVENT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS,
MODELS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO FIND A BIT MORE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM.
HOWEVER, THE SOLUTIONS TODAY ARE QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT THAN
YESTERDAY, WHICH WAS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE DAY BEFORE THAT.
DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES, THE TREND IS CLEAR: A DRY LONG TERM
FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONSIDERING
THE RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS,
HAVE RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR TODAY`S FORECAST PACKAGE.

WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST, AND RIDGING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, THE WEST COAST IS SET UP TO RESIDE UNDER
A WEAK, BUT RATHER PERSISTENT TROUGH THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THERE
APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FLOW, WHICH STAYS WELL
TO OUR NORTH, AND VIRTUALLY NO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS LEADS ME
TO KEEP THINGS ON THE DRY SIDE, ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDINESS
IS LIKELY THROUGH EACH DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, AS THE ECMWF RESOLVES MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SIERRAS, AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SIDE, MOSTLY OVER MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE, AND THE WEAK TROUGH OVERHEAD, HAVE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/18Z TAF CYCLE... VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO
AFFECT THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
IS POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD...MOSTLY IN THE COAST
RANGE.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST AND IN UMPQUA VALLEY TO PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS NEAR ROSEBURG
AND NORTH BEND. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. -BPN/SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT SUNDAY, APR 26, 2015...THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A BRIEF AND WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT BUT NORTH
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.  SOUTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAIRLY WEAK
COLD FRONT. STRONGER NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN
SUGGESTS GALES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/11/08



000
FXUS66 KMFR 262039
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
139 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...26/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST. IT WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...AND THAT IS
BRINGING SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA...MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES
WEST. THE COASTAL WATERS AND COAST WILL GET SOME SPOTTY VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ONE RAWS STATION...CHARLOTTE RIDGE...REPORTED
0.01 INCHES AS OF 1208 PDT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH VERY WARM INLAND
TEMPERATURES. AT LOW LEVELS...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND
OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...BRINGING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
COMING WEEK TO THOSE AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE EAST SIDE TUESDAY...AND THAT
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
CASCADES WHERE IT WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS MONDAY...BUT STILL
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL BE DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE WEAKENING
LONG WAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST SIDE AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE STORM TRACK WILL HAVE
MIGRATED TO THE NORTH BY THIS TIME AND IT WILL JUST BRUSH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MEDFORD CWA. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AND WHAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE MEDFORD CWA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WEEK FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BUT THE
UMPQUA BASIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY WEAK EVENT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS,
MODELS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO FIND A BIT MORE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM.
HOWEVER, THE SOLUTIONS TODAY ARE QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT THAN
YESTERDAY, WHICH WAS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE DAY BEFORE THAT.
DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES, THE TREND IS CLEAR: A DRY LONG TERM
FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONSIDERING
THE RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS,
HAVE RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR TODAY`S FORECAST PACKAGE.

WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST, AND RIDGING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, THE WEST COAST IS SET UP TO RESIDE UNDER
A WEAK, BUT RATHER PERSISTENT TROUGH THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THERE
APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FLOW, WHICH STAYS WELL
TO OUR NORTH, AND VIRTUALLY NO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS LEADS ME
TO KEEP THINGS ON THE DRY SIDE, ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDINESS
IS LIKELY THROUGH EACH DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, AS THE ECMWF RESOLVES MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SIERRAS, AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SIDE, MOSTLY OVER MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE, AND THE WEAK TROUGH OVERHEAD, HAVE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/18Z TAF CYCLE... VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO
AFFECT THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
IS POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD...MOSTLY IN THE COAST
RANGE.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST AND IN UMPQUA VALLEY TO PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS NEAR ROSEBURG
AND NORTH BEND. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. -BPN/SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT SUNDAY, APR 26, 2015...THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A BRIEF AND WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT BUT NORTH
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.  SOUTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAIRLY WEAK
COLD FRONT. STRONGER NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN
SUGGESTS GALES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/11/08




000
FXUS66 KPDT 261710 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1010 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE
MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WHICH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE CASCADE CREST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NO
FREEZE WARNING EXPECTED OR NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY 6-10 KFT AGL. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
15Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
76

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015...UPDATED/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL EXIST
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
STILL OFF THE COAST. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...NAMELY THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEYS AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL OREGON. THESE AREAS HAVE A
FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING UNTIL 9 AM. TODAY THE UPPER RIDGE OFF
THE COAST WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CAUSING A WARMING
TREND TO TAKE PLACE BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHICH WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. SOME AREAS ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY AND MONDAY BUT
THEY WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST. 88

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIR...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS A LOT TO BE DESIRED.  WINDS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE 15-30 MPH FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...AND IT`S POSSIBLE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL POSITION OVER WA/OR
WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.  PER DISCUSSION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...I WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE CASCADES BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE COLD UPPER LOW SIMILAR TO THE LATEST RUNS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY A W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  38  70  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  62  42  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  65  40  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  65  39  73  45 /   0  10  10   0
HRI  65  38  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  64  37  73  42 /   0  10  10   0
RDM  62  32  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  59  34  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  61  35  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  68  41  79  47 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/76/76




000
FXUS66 KPDT 261710 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1010 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE
MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WHICH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE CASCADE CREST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NO
FREEZE WARNING EXPECTED OR NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY 6-10 KFT AGL. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
15Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
76

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015...UPDATED/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL EXIST
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
STILL OFF THE COAST. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...NAMELY THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEYS AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL OREGON. THESE AREAS HAVE A
FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING UNTIL 9 AM. TODAY THE UPPER RIDGE OFF
THE COAST WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CAUSING A WARMING
TREND TO TAKE PLACE BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHICH WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. SOME AREAS ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY AND MONDAY BUT
THEY WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST. 88

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIR...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS A LOT TO BE DESIRED.  WINDS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE 15-30 MPH FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...AND IT`S POSSIBLE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL POSITION OVER WA/OR
WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.  PER DISCUSSION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...I WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE CASCADES BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE COLD UPPER LOW SIMILAR TO THE LATEST RUNS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY A W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  38  70  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  62  42  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  65  40  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  65  39  73  45 /   0  10  10   0
HRI  65  38  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  64  37  73  42 /   0  10  10   0
RDM  62  32  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  59  34  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  61  35  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  68  41  79  47 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/76/76



000
FXUS66 KPDT 261710 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1010 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE
MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WHICH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE CASCADE CREST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NO
FREEZE WARNING EXPECTED OR NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY 6-10 KFT AGL. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
15Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
76

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015...UPDATED/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL EXIST
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
STILL OFF THE COAST. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...NAMELY THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEYS AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL OREGON. THESE AREAS HAVE A
FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING UNTIL 9 AM. TODAY THE UPPER RIDGE OFF
THE COAST WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CAUSING A WARMING
TREND TO TAKE PLACE BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHICH WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. SOME AREAS ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY AND MONDAY BUT
THEY WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST. 88

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIR...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS A LOT TO BE DESIRED.  WINDS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE 15-30 MPH FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...AND IT`S POSSIBLE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL POSITION OVER WA/OR
WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.  PER DISCUSSION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...I WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE CASCADES BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE COLD UPPER LOW SIMILAR TO THE LATEST RUNS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY A W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  38  70  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  62  42  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  65  40  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  65  39  73  45 /   0  10  10   0
HRI  65  38  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  64  37  73  42 /   0  10  10   0
RDM  62  32  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  59  34  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  61  35  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  68  41  79  47 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/76/76



000
FXUS66 KPDT 261710 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1010 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE
MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WHICH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE CASCADE CREST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NO
FREEZE WARNING EXPECTED OR NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY 6-10 KFT AGL. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
15Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
76

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015...UPDATED/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL EXIST
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
STILL OFF THE COAST. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...NAMELY THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEYS AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL OREGON. THESE AREAS HAVE A
FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING UNTIL 9 AM. TODAY THE UPPER RIDGE OFF
THE COAST WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CAUSING A WARMING
TREND TO TAKE PLACE BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHICH WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. SOME AREAS ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY AND MONDAY BUT
THEY WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST. 88

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIR...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS A LOT TO BE DESIRED.  WINDS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE 15-30 MPH FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...AND IT`S POSSIBLE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL POSITION OVER WA/OR
WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.  PER DISCUSSION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...I WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE CASCADES BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE COLD UPPER LOW SIMILAR TO THE LATEST RUNS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY A W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  38  70  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  62  42  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  65  40  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  65  39  73  45 /   0  10  10   0
HRI  65  38  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  64  37  73  42 /   0  10  10   0
RDM  62  32  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  59  34  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  61  35  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  68  41  79  47 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/76/76




000
FXUS66 KPQR 261602
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
900 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL BUCKLE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A BIT OF RAIN TODAY...BUT WARMER WEATHER
FOR MON. COOLER UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUE AND
LAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING RATHER MOIST WARM
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THIS AM. RADAR SHOWS MOST STEADY PRECIPITATION
JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT STREAMING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE REGION.

WILL BOOST CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE...
AND OVER SW WASHINGTON AS THIS RAIN PUSHES INLAND. STILL THINK MOST
INLAND AREAS WILL SEE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
BURST OR TWO OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FURTHER
SOUTH ONE MOVES...THE LESS THE THREAT OF RAIN. SEEMS ONLY SPRINKLES S
OF A CORVALLIS TO SANTIAM PASS LINE TODAY.

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH N OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS EVENING. SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT AREAS OVER LANE COUNTY AND AS FAR N AS SALEM WILL
BREAK OUT OF THE RAIN THREAT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
THE WARMER AIR INTO THAT REGION...WITH HIGHS OVER S WILLAMETTE VALLEY
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S LATER TODAY. MOISTURE THREAT WILL PUSH
FURTHER N TONIGHT...LEAVING ALL AREAS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. WILL KEEP SOME SPRINKLES IN FAR N ZONES THIS EVENING.

MUCH WARM AIR MASS OVER REGION ON MON...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING SOME 10 DEG WARMER THAN TODAY. THIS WOULD
INDICATE HIGHS ON MON TO REACH INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST AND WELL
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR INLAND VALLEYS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW SUGGEST TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HOLD
OFF THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS WENT WITH THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTION...AND
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND...STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  ROCKEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...00Z MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD THAN THEY HAVE THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE KONA LOW THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING JUST NW OF HAWAII THE
PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY MAKING A DECISIVE TURN NORTHEAST WHERE IT
WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES. THIS UPPER LOW IS NOW NEAR
30N/160W...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO OUR TUESDAY
FRONT. WITH A MORE PREDICTABLE PATTERN NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC...MODELS ARE SHOWING CONSENSUS ON A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC
NW WED...SO WE INCREASED POPS WED AS A RESULT. 00Z/06Z GFS SHOW
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ADDING THUNDER FOR NOW...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE MODEL AGREEMENT HOLD
FOR A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE DOING SO. BEYOND WEDNESDAY TIMING
OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...SO
WE KEPT GENERIC SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST. ONCE TEMPS
FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL MIDWEEK...THEY SHOULD STAY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...INLAND TAF SITES CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF KSLE. LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY
RETURNS LATE TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEY...BUT THE
EXTENT DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION.

COASTAL TAF SITES CAN EXPECT TO SEE A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR
CIGS...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF IFR CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 09Z. LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4000
FT. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...BENIGN CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT INLAND THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS
EVENING.

EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AND MON AS SURFACE HIGH PRES
RETURNS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MON NIGHT AND
EARLY TUE. THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION...WITH
SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME MON NIGHT OR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE WATERS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN N CALIF. THIS MAY BRING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT
TIMES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT ABOUT 5 FT. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIKELY TO SEE SOME MIXED
SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
WIND WAVES REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUT OF THE S-SW AND A WEST LONGER
PERIOD FRESH SWELL. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING ON
  ALL COASTAL WATERS.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 261602
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
900 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL BUCKLE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A BIT OF RAIN TODAY...BUT WARMER WEATHER
FOR MON. COOLER UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUE AND
LAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING RATHER MOIST WARM
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THIS AM. RADAR SHOWS MOST STEADY PRECIPITATION
JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT STREAMING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE REGION.

WILL BOOST CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE...
AND OVER SW WASHINGTON AS THIS RAIN PUSHES INLAND. STILL THINK MOST
INLAND AREAS WILL SEE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
BURST OR TWO OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FURTHER
SOUTH ONE MOVES...THE LESS THE THREAT OF RAIN. SEEMS ONLY SPRINKLES S
OF A CORVALLIS TO SANTIAM PASS LINE TODAY.

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH N OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS EVENING. SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT AREAS OVER LANE COUNTY AND AS FAR N AS SALEM WILL
BREAK OUT OF THE RAIN THREAT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
THE WARMER AIR INTO THAT REGION...WITH HIGHS OVER S WILLAMETTE VALLEY
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S LATER TODAY. MOISTURE THREAT WILL PUSH
FURTHER N TONIGHT...LEAVING ALL AREAS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. WILL KEEP SOME SPRINKLES IN FAR N ZONES THIS EVENING.

MUCH WARM AIR MASS OVER REGION ON MON...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING SOME 10 DEG WARMER THAN TODAY. THIS WOULD
INDICATE HIGHS ON MON TO REACH INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST AND WELL
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR INLAND VALLEYS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW SUGGEST TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HOLD
OFF THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS WENT WITH THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTION...AND
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND...STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  ROCKEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...00Z MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD THAN THEY HAVE THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE KONA LOW THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING JUST NW OF HAWAII THE
PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY MAKING A DECISIVE TURN NORTHEAST WHERE IT
WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES. THIS UPPER LOW IS NOW NEAR
30N/160W...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO OUR TUESDAY
FRONT. WITH A MORE PREDICTABLE PATTERN NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC...MODELS ARE SHOWING CONSENSUS ON A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC
NW WED...SO WE INCREASED POPS WED AS A RESULT. 00Z/06Z GFS SHOW
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ADDING THUNDER FOR NOW...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE MODEL AGREEMENT HOLD
FOR A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE DOING SO. BEYOND WEDNESDAY TIMING
OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...SO
WE KEPT GENERIC SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST. ONCE TEMPS
FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL MIDWEEK...THEY SHOULD STAY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...INLAND TAF SITES CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF KSLE. LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY
RETURNS LATE TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEY...BUT THE
EXTENT DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION.

COASTAL TAF SITES CAN EXPECT TO SEE A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR
CIGS...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF IFR CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 09Z. LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4000
FT. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...BENIGN CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT INLAND THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS
EVENING.

EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AND MON AS SURFACE HIGH PRES
RETURNS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MON NIGHT AND
EARLY TUE. THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION...WITH
SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME MON NIGHT OR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE WATERS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN N CALIF. THIS MAY BRING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT
TIMES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT ABOUT 5 FT. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIKELY TO SEE SOME MIXED
SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
WIND WAVES REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUT OF THE S-SW AND A WEST LONGER
PERIOD FRESH SWELL. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING ON
  ALL COASTAL WATERS.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 261602
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
900 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL BUCKLE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A BIT OF RAIN TODAY...BUT WARMER WEATHER
FOR MON. COOLER UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUE AND
LAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING RATHER MOIST WARM
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THIS AM. RADAR SHOWS MOST STEADY PRECIPITATION
JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT STREAMING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE REGION.

WILL BOOST CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE...
AND OVER SW WASHINGTON AS THIS RAIN PUSHES INLAND. STILL THINK MOST
INLAND AREAS WILL SEE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
BURST OR TWO OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FURTHER
SOUTH ONE MOVES...THE LESS THE THREAT OF RAIN. SEEMS ONLY SPRINKLES S
OF A CORVALLIS TO SANTIAM PASS LINE TODAY.

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH N OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS EVENING. SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT AREAS OVER LANE COUNTY AND AS FAR N AS SALEM WILL
BREAK OUT OF THE RAIN THREAT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
THE WARMER AIR INTO THAT REGION...WITH HIGHS OVER S WILLAMETTE VALLEY
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S LATER TODAY. MOISTURE THREAT WILL PUSH
FURTHER N TONIGHT...LEAVING ALL AREAS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. WILL KEEP SOME SPRINKLES IN FAR N ZONES THIS EVENING.

MUCH WARM AIR MASS OVER REGION ON MON...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING SOME 10 DEG WARMER THAN TODAY. THIS WOULD
INDICATE HIGHS ON MON TO REACH INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST AND WELL
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR INLAND VALLEYS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW SUGGEST TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HOLD
OFF THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS WENT WITH THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTION...AND
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND...STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  ROCKEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...00Z MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD THAN THEY HAVE THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE KONA LOW THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING JUST NW OF HAWAII THE
PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY MAKING A DECISIVE TURN NORTHEAST WHERE IT
WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES. THIS UPPER LOW IS NOW NEAR
30N/160W...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO OUR TUESDAY
FRONT. WITH A MORE PREDICTABLE PATTERN NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC...MODELS ARE SHOWING CONSENSUS ON A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC
NW WED...SO WE INCREASED POPS WED AS A RESULT. 00Z/06Z GFS SHOW
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ADDING THUNDER FOR NOW...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE MODEL AGREEMENT HOLD
FOR A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE DOING SO. BEYOND WEDNESDAY TIMING
OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...SO
WE KEPT GENERIC SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST. ONCE TEMPS
FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL MIDWEEK...THEY SHOULD STAY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...INLAND TAF SITES CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF KSLE. LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY
RETURNS LATE TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEY...BUT THE
EXTENT DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION.

COASTAL TAF SITES CAN EXPECT TO SEE A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR
CIGS...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF IFR CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 09Z. LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4000
FT. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...BENIGN CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT INLAND THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS
EVENING.

EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AND MON AS SURFACE HIGH PRES
RETURNS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MON NIGHT AND
EARLY TUE. THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION...WITH
SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME MON NIGHT OR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE WATERS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN N CALIF. THIS MAY BRING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT
TIMES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT ABOUT 5 FT. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIKELY TO SEE SOME MIXED
SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
WIND WAVES REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUT OF THE S-SW AND A WEST LONGER
PERIOD FRESH SWELL. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING ON
  ALL COASTAL WATERS.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 261547
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
947 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH IS MAINLY TO OUR EAST...BUT THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO VALLEY COUNTY EAST OF MCCALL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY WEATHER
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO
AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-30 MPH /NEAR ADVISORY
SPEEDS/ FROM MOUNTAIN HOME TO TWIN FALLS AND JEROME WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS
NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT...EXCEPT NW 10-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 35KT IN THE
UPPER TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...NW
15-25 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AT 09Z UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM ERN WA SSEWD
THROUGH WRN ID...ERN NV...TO AZ.  TROUGH NARROWING AS IT MOVES EAST
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DRYING AND WINDY TODAY...CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN SUNNY AND WARMING
MONDAY.  NW WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE UPPER
TREASURE VALLEY EAST OF BOISE.  SLIGHTLY LESS WIND IN THE MAGIC
VALLEY WITH FLOW ALOFT LESS FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH THE TERRAIN.
WE CHOOSE NOT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THESE WINDS.  MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE LIKE MAXS YESTERDAY AND TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COLD
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER BASINS...AND LOWER
TO MID 30S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.  MONDAY WILL BE 7 TO 14 DEGS WARMER
THAN TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST WARMING IN OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS AGREE ON A HIGH
AMPLITUDE POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. STARTING WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH...ALLOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH INLAND...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT APPROACHES THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE...WITH MOST PRECIPITATION STAYING NORTH OF OUR CWA. FOLLOWING
THE TROUGH WE CAN EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT



000
FXUS66 KPDT 261524
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
823 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE
MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WHICH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE CASCADE CREST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NO
FREEZE WARNING EXPECTED OR NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015...UPDATED/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL EXIST
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
STILL OFF THE COAST. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...NAMELY THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEYS AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL OREGON. THESE AREAS HAVE A
FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING UNTIL 9 AM. TODAY THE UPPER RIDGE OFF
THE COAST WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CAUSING A WARMING
TREND TO TAKE PLACE BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHICH WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. SOME AREAS ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY AND MONDAY BUT
THEY WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST. 88

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIR...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS A LOT TO BE DESIRED.  WINDS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE 15-30 MPH FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...AND IT`S POSSIBLE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL POSITION OVER WA/OR
WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.  PER DISCUSSION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...I WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE CASCADES BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE COLD UPPER LOW SIMILAR TO THE LATEST RUNS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY A W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS.  WISTER


AVIATION...12Z TAFS.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY AOA 8,000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  38  70  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  62  42  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  65  40  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  65  39  73  45 /   0  10  10   0
HRI  65  38  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  64  37  73  42 /   0  10  10   0
RDM  62  32  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  59  34  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  61  35  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  68  41  79  47 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/76/76



000
FXUS66 KPDT 261524
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
823 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE
MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WHICH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE CASCADE CREST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NO
FREEZE WARNING EXPECTED OR NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015...UPDATED/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL EXIST
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
STILL OFF THE COAST. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...NAMELY THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEYS AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL OREGON. THESE AREAS HAVE A
FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING UNTIL 9 AM. TODAY THE UPPER RIDGE OFF
THE COAST WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CAUSING A WARMING
TREND TO TAKE PLACE BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHICH WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. SOME AREAS ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY AND MONDAY BUT
THEY WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST. 88

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIR...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS A LOT TO BE DESIRED.  WINDS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE 15-30 MPH FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...AND IT`S POSSIBLE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL POSITION OVER WA/OR
WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.  PER DISCUSSION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...I WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE CASCADES BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE COLD UPPER LOW SIMILAR TO THE LATEST RUNS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY A W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS.  WISTER


AVIATION...12Z TAFS.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY AOA 8,000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  38  70  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  62  42  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  65  40  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  65  39  73  45 /   0  10  10   0
HRI  65  38  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  64  37  73  42 /   0  10  10   0
RDM  62  32  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  59  34  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  61  35  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  68  41  79  47 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/76/76




000
FXUS66 KMFR 261500
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...26/12Z NAM IN.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST. IT WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...AND THAT IS
BRINGING SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA...MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES
WEST. THE COASTAL WATERS AND COAST MAY GET SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. AFTER THAT THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH VERY WARM INLAND TEMPERATURES. AT LOW LEVELS...THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...BRINGING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE COMING WEEK TO THOSE AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE EAST SIDE TUESDAY...AND THAT
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
CASCADES WHERE IT WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS MONDAY...BUT STILL
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL BE DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE WEAKENING
LONG WAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST SIDE AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE STORM TRACK WILL HAVE
MIGRATED TO THE NORTH BY THIS TIME AND IT WILL JUST BRUSH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MEDFORD CWA. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AND WHAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE MEDFORD CWA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WEEK FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BUT THE
UMPQUA BASIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY WEAK EVENT.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP AFTER THAT WITH THE STORM TRACK
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH A
WARMING TREND OVER INLAND AREAS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE... VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO AFFECT THE COAST
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS AFTERNOON. PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS
POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD...MOSTLY IN THE COAST
RANGE...TODAY.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS IN UMPQUA
VALLEY TO PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS NEAR ROSEBURG. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SUNDAY, APR 26, 2015...LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A WARM FRONT TODAY BUT WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A BRIEF AND WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT.
STRONGER NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SUGGESTS
GALES ARE POSSIBLE. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/15




000
FXUS66 KMFR 261500
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...26/12Z NAM IN.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST. IT WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...AND THAT IS
BRINGING SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA...MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES
WEST. THE COASTAL WATERS AND COAST MAY GET SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. AFTER THAT THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH VERY WARM INLAND TEMPERATURES. AT LOW LEVELS...THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...BRINGING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE COMING WEEK TO THOSE AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE EAST SIDE TUESDAY...AND THAT
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
CASCADES WHERE IT WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS MONDAY...BUT STILL
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL BE DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE WEAKENING
LONG WAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST SIDE AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE STORM TRACK WILL HAVE
MIGRATED TO THE NORTH BY THIS TIME AND IT WILL JUST BRUSH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MEDFORD CWA. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AND WHAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE MEDFORD CWA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WEEK FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BUT THE
UMPQUA BASIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY WEAK EVENT.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP AFTER THAT WITH THE STORM TRACK
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH A
WARMING TREND OVER INLAND AREAS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE... VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO AFFECT THE COAST
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS AFTERNOON. PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS
POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD...MOSTLY IN THE COAST
RANGE...TODAY.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS IN UMPQUA
VALLEY TO PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS NEAR ROSEBURG. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SUNDAY, APR 26, 2015...LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A WARM FRONT TODAY BUT WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A BRIEF AND WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT.
STRONGER NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SUGGESTS
GALES ARE POSSIBLE. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/15



000
FXUS66 KMFR 261149
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
450 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT ON THE COAST TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW. BY MONDAY MORNING A
THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION COMBINING TO BRING OFFSHORE FLOW ALL THE
WAY CROSS THE EAST SIDE. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST
RATHER QUICKLY TO THE EAST SIDE BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
BRING A WARMER AIR MASS INTO THE ARE INTO MONDAY...WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 16C OVER MEDFORD. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT BRINGS
PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF OF A 100KT JET MOVES THROUGH THE AREA PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THE BL FLOW FROM THE NW WITH GENERALLY
WEAK LAPSE RATES. SVEN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE... VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO AFFECT THE COAST
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS AFTERNOON. PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS
POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD...MOSTLY IN THE COAST
RANGE...TODAY.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS IN UMPQUA
VALLEY TO PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS NEAR ROSEBURG. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SK


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SUNDAY, APR 26, 2015...LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A WARM FRONT TODAY BUT WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A BRIEF AND WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT.
STRONGER NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SUGGESTS
GALES ARE POSSIBLE. SK


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 261149
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
450 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT ON THE COAST TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW. BY MONDAY MORNING A
THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION COMBINING TO BRING OFFSHORE FLOW ALL THE
WAY CROSS THE EAST SIDE. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST
RATHER QUICKLY TO THE EAST SIDE BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
BRING A WARMER AIR MASS INTO THE ARE INTO MONDAY...WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 16C OVER MEDFORD. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT BRINGS
PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF OF A 100KT JET MOVES THROUGH THE AREA PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THE BL FLOW FROM THE NW WITH GENERALLY
WEAK LAPSE RATES. SVEN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE... VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO AFFECT THE COAST
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS AFTERNOON. PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS
POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD...MOSTLY IN THE COAST
RANGE...TODAY.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS IN UMPQUA
VALLEY TO PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS NEAR ROSEBURG. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SK


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SUNDAY, APR 26, 2015...LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A WARM FRONT TODAY BUT WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A BRIEF AND WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT.
STRONGER NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SUGGESTS
GALES ARE POSSIBLE. SK


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 261149
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
450 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT ON THE COAST TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW. BY MONDAY MORNING A
THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION COMBINING TO BRING OFFSHORE FLOW ALL THE
WAY CROSS THE EAST SIDE. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST
RATHER QUICKLY TO THE EAST SIDE BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
BRING A WARMER AIR MASS INTO THE ARE INTO MONDAY...WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 16C OVER MEDFORD. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT BRINGS
PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF OF A 100KT JET MOVES THROUGH THE AREA PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THE BL FLOW FROM THE NW WITH GENERALLY
WEAK LAPSE RATES. SVEN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE... VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO AFFECT THE COAST
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS AFTERNOON. PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS
POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD...MOSTLY IN THE COAST
RANGE...TODAY.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS IN UMPQUA
VALLEY TO PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS NEAR ROSEBURG. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SK


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SUNDAY, APR 26, 2015...LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A WARM FRONT TODAY BUT WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A BRIEF AND WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT.
STRONGER NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SUGGESTS
GALES ARE POSSIBLE. SK


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 261149
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
450 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT ON THE COAST TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW. BY MONDAY MORNING A
THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION COMBINING TO BRING OFFSHORE FLOW ALL THE
WAY CROSS THE EAST SIDE. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST
RATHER QUICKLY TO THE EAST SIDE BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
BRING A WARMER AIR MASS INTO THE ARE INTO MONDAY...WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 16C OVER MEDFORD. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT BRINGS
PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF OF A 100KT JET MOVES THROUGH THE AREA PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THE BL FLOW FROM THE NW WITH GENERALLY
WEAK LAPSE RATES. SVEN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE... VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO AFFECT THE COAST
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS AFTERNOON. PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS
POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD...MOSTLY IN THE COAST
RANGE...TODAY.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS IN UMPQUA
VALLEY TO PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS NEAR ROSEBURG. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SK


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SUNDAY, APR 26, 2015...LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A WARM FRONT TODAY BUT WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A BRIEF AND WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT.
STRONGER NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SUGGESTS
GALES ARE POSSIBLE. SK


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 261149
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
450 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT ON THE COAST TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW. BY MONDAY MORNING A
THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION COMBINING TO BRING OFFSHORE FLOW ALL THE
WAY CROSS THE EAST SIDE. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST
RATHER QUICKLY TO THE EAST SIDE BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
BRING A WARMER AIR MASS INTO THE ARE INTO MONDAY...WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 16C OVER MEDFORD. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT BRINGS
PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF OF A 100KT JET MOVES THROUGH THE AREA PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THE BL FLOW FROM THE NW WITH GENERALLY
WEAK LAPSE RATES. SVEN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE... VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO AFFECT THE COAST
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS AFTERNOON. PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS
POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD...MOSTLY IN THE COAST
RANGE...TODAY.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS IN UMPQUA
VALLEY TO PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS NEAR ROSEBURG. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SK


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SUNDAY, APR 26, 2015...LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A WARM FRONT TODAY BUT WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A BRIEF AND WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT.
STRONGER NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SUGGESTS
GALES ARE POSSIBLE. SK


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 261149
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
450 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT ON THE COAST TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW. BY MONDAY MORNING A
THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION COMBINING TO BRING OFFSHORE FLOW ALL THE
WAY CROSS THE EAST SIDE. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST
RATHER QUICKLY TO THE EAST SIDE BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
BRING A WARMER AIR MASS INTO THE ARE INTO MONDAY...WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 16C OVER MEDFORD. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT BRINGS
PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF OF A 100KT JET MOVES THROUGH THE AREA PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THE BL FLOW FROM THE NW WITH GENERALLY
WEAK LAPSE RATES. SVEN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE... VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO AFFECT THE COAST
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS AFTERNOON. PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS
POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD...MOSTLY IN THE COAST
RANGE...TODAY.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS IN UMPQUA
VALLEY TO PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS NEAR ROSEBURG. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SK


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SUNDAY, APR 26, 2015...LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A WARM FRONT TODAY BUT WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A BRIEF AND WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT.
STRONGER NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SUGGESTS
GALES ARE POSSIBLE. SK


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN



000
FXUS66 KPDT 261113 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
415 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015...UPDATED

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL EXIST
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
STILL OFF THE COAST. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...NAMELY THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEYS AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL OREGON. THESE AREAS HAVE A
FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING UNTIL 9 AM. TODAY THE UPPER RIDGE OFF
THE COAST WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CAUSING A WARMING
TREND TO TAKE PLACE BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHICH WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. SOME AREAS ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY AND MONDAY BUT
THEY WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST. 88

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIR...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS A LOT TO BE DESIRED.  WINDS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE 15-30 MPH FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...AND IT`S POSSIBLE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL POSITION OVER WA/OR
WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.  PER DISCUSSION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...I WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE CASCADES BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE COLD UPPER LOW SIMILAR TO THE LATEST RUNS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY A W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY AOA 8,000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  39  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  61  43  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  64  41  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  63  40  71  45 /   0   0  10   0
HRI  63  39  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  63  38  71  42 /   0  10  10   0
RDM  61  32  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  56  36  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  58  36  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  67  42  77  47 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ510.

WA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR WAZ026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85



000
FXUS66 KPDT 261113 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
415 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015...UPDATED

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL EXIST
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
STILL OFF THE COAST. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...NAMELY THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEYS AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL OREGON. THESE AREAS HAVE A
FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING UNTIL 9 AM. TODAY THE UPPER RIDGE OFF
THE COAST WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CAUSING A WARMING
TREND TO TAKE PLACE BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHICH WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. SOME AREAS ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY AND MONDAY BUT
THEY WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST. 88

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIR...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS A LOT TO BE DESIRED.  WINDS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE 15-30 MPH FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...AND IT`S POSSIBLE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL POSITION OVER WA/OR
WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.  PER DISCUSSION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...I WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE CASCADES BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE COLD UPPER LOW SIMILAR TO THE LATEST RUNS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY A W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY AOA 8,000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  39  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  61  43  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  64  41  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  63  40  71  45 /   0   0  10   0
HRI  63  39  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  63  38  71  42 /   0  10  10   0
RDM  61  32  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  56  36  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  58  36  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  67  42  77  47 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ510.

WA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR WAZ026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85



000
FXUS66 KPDT 261113 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
415 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015...UPDATED

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL EXIST
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
STILL OFF THE COAST. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...NAMELY THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEYS AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL OREGON. THESE AREAS HAVE A
FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING UNTIL 9 AM. TODAY THE UPPER RIDGE OFF
THE COAST WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CAUSING A WARMING
TREND TO TAKE PLACE BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHICH WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. SOME AREAS ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY AND MONDAY BUT
THEY WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST. 88

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIR...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS A LOT TO BE DESIRED.  WINDS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE 15-30 MPH FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...AND IT`S POSSIBLE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL POSITION OVER WA/OR
WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.  PER DISCUSSION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...I WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE CASCADES BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE COLD UPPER LOW SIMILAR TO THE LATEST RUNS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY A W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY AOA 8,000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  39  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  61  43  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  64  41  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  63  40  71  45 /   0   0  10   0
HRI  63  39  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  63  38  71  42 /   0  10  10   0
RDM  61  32  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  56  36  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  58  36  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  67  42  77  47 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ510.

WA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR WAZ026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85



000
FXUS66 KPDT 261113 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
415 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015...UPDATED

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL EXIST
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
STILL OFF THE COAST. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...NAMELY THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEYS AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL OREGON. THESE AREAS HAVE A
FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING UNTIL 9 AM. TODAY THE UPPER RIDGE OFF
THE COAST WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CAUSING A WARMING
TREND TO TAKE PLACE BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHICH WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. SOME AREAS ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY AND MONDAY BUT
THEY WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST. 88

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIR...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS A LOT TO BE DESIRED.  WINDS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE 15-30 MPH FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...AND IT`S POSSIBLE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL POSITION OVER WA/OR
WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.  PER DISCUSSION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...I WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE CASCADES BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE COLD UPPER LOW SIMILAR TO THE LATEST RUNS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY A W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY AOA 8,000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  39  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  61  43  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  64  41  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  63  40  71  45 /   0   0  10   0
HRI  63  39  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  63  38  71  42 /   0  10  10   0
RDM  61  32  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  56  36  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  58  36  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  67  42  77  47 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ510.

WA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR WAZ026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85



000
FXUS66 KPDT 261113 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
415 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015...UPDATED

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL EXIST
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
STILL OFF THE COAST. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...NAMELY THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEYS AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL OREGON. THESE AREAS HAVE A
FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING UNTIL 9 AM. TODAY THE UPPER RIDGE OFF
THE COAST WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CAUSING A WARMING
TREND TO TAKE PLACE BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHICH WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. SOME AREAS ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY AND MONDAY BUT
THEY WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST. 88

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIR...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS A LOT TO BE DESIRED.  WINDS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE 15-30 MPH FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...AND IT`S POSSIBLE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL POSITION OVER WA/OR
WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.  PER DISCUSSION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...I WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE CASCADES BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE COLD UPPER LOW SIMILAR TO THE LATEST RUNS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY A W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY AOA 8,000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  39  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  61  43  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  64  41  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  63  40  71  45 /   0   0  10   0
HRI  63  39  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  63  38  71  42 /   0  10  10   0
RDM  61  32  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  56  36  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  58  36  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  67  42  77  47 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ510.

WA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR WAZ026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85




000
FXUS66 KPDT 261113 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
415 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015...UPDATED

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL EXIST
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
STILL OFF THE COAST. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...NAMELY THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEYS AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL OREGON. THESE AREAS HAVE A
FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING UNTIL 9 AM. TODAY THE UPPER RIDGE OFF
THE COAST WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CAUSING A WARMING
TREND TO TAKE PLACE BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHICH WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. SOME AREAS ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY AND MONDAY BUT
THEY WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST. 88

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIR...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS A LOT TO BE DESIRED.  WINDS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE 15-30 MPH FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...AND IT`S POSSIBLE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL POSITION OVER WA/OR
WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.  PER DISCUSSION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...I WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE CASCADES BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE COLD UPPER LOW SIMILAR TO THE LATEST RUNS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY A W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY AOA 8,000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  39  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  61  43  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  64  41  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  63  40  71  45 /   0   0  10   0
HRI  63  39  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  63  38  71  42 /   0  10  10   0
RDM  61  32  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  56  36  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  58  36  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  67  42  77  47 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ510.

WA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR WAZ026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85



000
FXUS66 KMFR 261053
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
353 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT ON THE COAST TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW. BY MONDAY MORNING A
THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION COMBINING TO BRING OFFSHORE FLOW ALL THE
WAY CROSS THE EAST SIDE. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST
RATHER QUICKLY TO THE EAST SIDE BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
BRING A WARMER AIR MASS INTO THE ARE INTO MONDAY...WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 16C OVER MEDFORD. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT BRINGS
PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF OF A 100KT JET MOVES THROUGH THE AREA PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THE BL FLOW FROM THE NW WITH GENERALLY
WEAK LAPSE RATES. SVEN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AS TRANSIENT HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND. A WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL AS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST, PRIMARILY NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT PARTIAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE OREGON CASCADES AND LOWER KLAMATH
RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT SATURDAY, APR 25, 2015... LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON SUNDAY SWITCHING WINDS TO SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE RAIN. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A BRIEF AND WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT.
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD ON TUESDAY AND WILL APPROACH 10 FEET
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. STRONGER NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FRONT. BTL


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 261053
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
353 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT ON THE COAST TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW. BY MONDAY MORNING A
THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION COMBINING TO BRING OFFSHORE FLOW ALL THE
WAY CROSS THE EAST SIDE. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST
RATHER QUICKLY TO THE EAST SIDE BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
BRING A WARMER AIR MASS INTO THE ARE INTO MONDAY...WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 16C OVER MEDFORD. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT BRINGS
PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF OF A 100KT JET MOVES THROUGH THE AREA PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THE BL FLOW FROM THE NW WITH GENERALLY
WEAK LAPSE RATES. SVEN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AS TRANSIENT HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND. A WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL AS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST, PRIMARILY NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT PARTIAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE OREGON CASCADES AND LOWER KLAMATH
RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT SATURDAY, APR 25, 2015... LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON SUNDAY SWITCHING WINDS TO SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE RAIN. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A BRIEF AND WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT.
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD ON TUESDAY AND WILL APPROACH 10 FEET
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. STRONGER NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FRONT. BTL


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 261053
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
353 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT ON THE COAST TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW. BY MONDAY MORNING A
THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION COMBINING TO BRING OFFSHORE FLOW ALL THE
WAY CROSS THE EAST SIDE. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST
RATHER QUICKLY TO THE EAST SIDE BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
BRING A WARMER AIR MASS INTO THE ARE INTO MONDAY...WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 16C OVER MEDFORD. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT BRINGS
PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF OF A 100KT JET MOVES THROUGH THE AREA PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THE BL FLOW FROM THE NW WITH GENERALLY
WEAK LAPSE RATES. SVEN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AS TRANSIENT HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND. A WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL AS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST, PRIMARILY NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT PARTIAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE OREGON CASCADES AND LOWER KLAMATH
RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT SATURDAY, APR 25, 2015... LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON SUNDAY SWITCHING WINDS TO SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE RAIN. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A BRIEF AND WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT.
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD ON TUESDAY AND WILL APPROACH 10 FEET
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. STRONGER NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FRONT. BTL


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 261053
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
353 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT ON THE COAST TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW. BY MONDAY MORNING A
THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION COMBINING TO BRING OFFSHORE FLOW ALL THE
WAY CROSS THE EAST SIDE. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST
RATHER QUICKLY TO THE EAST SIDE BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
BRING A WARMER AIR MASS INTO THE ARE INTO MONDAY...WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 16C OVER MEDFORD. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT BRINGS
PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF OF A 100KT JET MOVES THROUGH THE AREA PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THE BL FLOW FROM THE NW WITH GENERALLY
WEAK LAPSE RATES. SVEN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AS TRANSIENT HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND. A WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL AS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST, PRIMARILY NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT PARTIAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE OREGON CASCADES AND LOWER KLAMATH
RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT SATURDAY, APR 25, 2015... LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON SUNDAY SWITCHING WINDS TO SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE RAIN. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A BRIEF AND WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT.
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD ON TUESDAY AND WILL APPROACH 10 FEET
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. STRONGER NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FRONT. BTL


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN




000
FXUS66 KPQR 261029
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
329 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS WEAKENING AND MOVING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF SALEM. ONCE THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH...RAIN SHOULD BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON THE NORTH COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ENDING TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS FURTHER NORTH INTO WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER TO THE
DISTRICT MONDAY. A WEAK BUT FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY...WITH COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES BRUSHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS SW WA/NW OR AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COUPLE FLURRIES IN
THE CASCADE PASSES...MAINLY DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW. ANY LINGERING FLURRIES WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END BY
DAYBREAK AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD AND FLOW BEGINS TO TURN OFFSHORE.
IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE FLURRIES WILL RESULT IN ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OFF CHILLY THIS MORNING WITH PLENTY OF 30S
ACROSS THE DISTRICT. TEMPS WILL BE SLUGGISH TO WARM UP INITIALLY DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONT...PRESENTLY
CROSSING 130W AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON
COAST. KLGX/KRTX RADARS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP SOME ECHOES JUST
OFFSHORE...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE VIRGA AT THE MOMENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS INCREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...AS MILD AND MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR OVERRUNS THE
COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AT LEAST SOME
RAIN WILL FALL PDX METRO NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT...POSSIBLY
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. 06Z GFS/NAM APPEAR TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP WITH
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE GFS
NOW INDICATING LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE COAST RANGE BY MIDDAY. DECIDED
TO INCREASE POPS TODAY AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SALEM.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD FAST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LIKELY
BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE OREGON COAST RANGE AFTER
THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE
SOME CLEARING IN LANE COUNTY BY THE TIME THE DAY IS DONE...AND WITH
THE WARMING AIR MASS ALOFT IT IS POSSIBLE EUGENE COULD PUSH WELL INTO
THE 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WILL TARGET THE WA COAST...MAINLY THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA...BUT PACIFIC
COUNTY MAY GET BRUSHED WITH RAIN TOTALS UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH BY
THIS EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM FROM
+4 DEG C TODAY TO +12 TO +14 DEG C MONDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS. COASTAL
LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S DUE TO AN EARLY AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW SUGGEST TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HOLD
OFF THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS WENT WITH THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTION...AND
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND THAT STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...00Z MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD THAN THEY HAVE THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE KONA LOW THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING JUST NW OF HAWAII THE
PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY MAKING A DECISIVE TURN NORTHEAST WHERE IT
WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES. THIS UPPER LOW IS NOW NEAR
30N/160W...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO OUR TUESDAY
FRONT. WITH A MORE PREDICTABLE PATTERN NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC...MODELS ARE SHOWING CONSENSUS ON A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC
NW WED...SO WE INCREASED POPS WED AS A RESULT. 00Z/06Z GFS SHOW
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ADDING THUNDER FOR NOW...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE MODEL AGREEMENT HOLD
FOR A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE DOING SO. BEYOND WEDNESDAY TIMING
OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...SO
WE KEPT GENERIC SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST. ONCE TEMPS
FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL MIDWEEK...THEY SHOULD STAY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING. THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PATTERN MAY ALLOW
SOME PATCHY IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH. LIGHT
WARM FRONTAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON AT TIMES TODAY...WITH AREAS OF MVFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO FORM TO
THE W AND N OF KPDX...BUT EXPECT THE TERMINAL TO STAY CLEAR.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 06Z
MON. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT INLAND THIS MORNING...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING.

EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AND MON AND SURFACE HIGH PRES
RETURNS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MON NIGHT AND
EARLY TUE. THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION...WITH
SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME MON NIGHT OR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE WATERS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN N CALIF. THIS MAY BRING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT
TIMES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT ABOUT 5 FT. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIKELY TO SEE SOME MIXED
SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
WIND WAVES REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUT OF THE S-SW AND A WEST LONGER
PERIOD FRESH SWELL. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 261029
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
329 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS WEAKENING AND MOVING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF SALEM. ONCE THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH...RAIN SHOULD BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON THE NORTH COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ENDING TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS FURTHER NORTH INTO WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER TO THE
DISTRICT MONDAY. A WEAK BUT FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY...WITH COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES BRUSHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS SW WA/NW OR AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COUPLE FLURRIES IN
THE CASCADE PASSES...MAINLY DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW. ANY LINGERING FLURRIES WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END BY
DAYBREAK AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD AND FLOW BEGINS TO TURN OFFSHORE.
IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE FLURRIES WILL RESULT IN ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OFF CHILLY THIS MORNING WITH PLENTY OF 30S
ACROSS THE DISTRICT. TEMPS WILL BE SLUGGISH TO WARM UP INITIALLY DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONT...PRESENTLY
CROSSING 130W AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON
COAST. KLGX/KRTX RADARS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP SOME ECHOES JUST
OFFSHORE...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE VIRGA AT THE MOMENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS INCREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...AS MILD AND MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR OVERRUNS THE
COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AT LEAST SOME
RAIN WILL FALL PDX METRO NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT...POSSIBLY
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. 06Z GFS/NAM APPEAR TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP WITH
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE GFS
NOW INDICATING LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE COAST RANGE BY MIDDAY. DECIDED
TO INCREASE POPS TODAY AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SALEM.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD FAST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LIKELY
BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE OREGON COAST RANGE AFTER
THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE
SOME CLEARING IN LANE COUNTY BY THE TIME THE DAY IS DONE...AND WITH
THE WARMING AIR MASS ALOFT IT IS POSSIBLE EUGENE COULD PUSH WELL INTO
THE 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WILL TARGET THE WA COAST...MAINLY THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA...BUT PACIFIC
COUNTY MAY GET BRUSHED WITH RAIN TOTALS UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH BY
THIS EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM FROM
+4 DEG C TODAY TO +12 TO +14 DEG C MONDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS. COASTAL
LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S DUE TO AN EARLY AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW SUGGEST TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HOLD
OFF THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS WENT WITH THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTION...AND
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND THAT STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...00Z MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD THAN THEY HAVE THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE KONA LOW THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING JUST NW OF HAWAII THE
PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY MAKING A DECISIVE TURN NORTHEAST WHERE IT
WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES. THIS UPPER LOW IS NOW NEAR
30N/160W...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO OUR TUESDAY
FRONT. WITH A MORE PREDICTABLE PATTERN NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC...MODELS ARE SHOWING CONSENSUS ON A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC
NW WED...SO WE INCREASED POPS WED AS A RESULT. 00Z/06Z GFS SHOW
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ADDING THUNDER FOR NOW...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE MODEL AGREEMENT HOLD
FOR A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE DOING SO. BEYOND WEDNESDAY TIMING
OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...SO
WE KEPT GENERIC SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST. ONCE TEMPS
FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL MIDWEEK...THEY SHOULD STAY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING. THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PATTERN MAY ALLOW
SOME PATCHY IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH. LIGHT
WARM FRONTAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON AT TIMES TODAY...WITH AREAS OF MVFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO FORM TO
THE W AND N OF KPDX...BUT EXPECT THE TERMINAL TO STAY CLEAR.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 06Z
MON. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT INLAND THIS MORNING...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING.

EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AND MON AND SURFACE HIGH PRES
RETURNS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MON NIGHT AND
EARLY TUE. THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION...WITH
SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME MON NIGHT OR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE WATERS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN N CALIF. THIS MAY BRING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT
TIMES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT ABOUT 5 FT. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIKELY TO SEE SOME MIXED
SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
WIND WAVES REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUT OF THE S-SW AND A WEST LONGER
PERIOD FRESH SWELL. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 261029
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
329 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS WEAKENING AND MOVING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF SALEM. ONCE THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH...RAIN SHOULD BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON THE NORTH COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ENDING TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS FURTHER NORTH INTO WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER TO THE
DISTRICT MONDAY. A WEAK BUT FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY...WITH COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES BRUSHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS SW WA/NW OR AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COUPLE FLURRIES IN
THE CASCADE PASSES...MAINLY DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW. ANY LINGERING FLURRIES WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END BY
DAYBREAK AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD AND FLOW BEGINS TO TURN OFFSHORE.
IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE FLURRIES WILL RESULT IN ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OFF CHILLY THIS MORNING WITH PLENTY OF 30S
ACROSS THE DISTRICT. TEMPS WILL BE SLUGGISH TO WARM UP INITIALLY DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONT...PRESENTLY
CROSSING 130W AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON
COAST. KLGX/KRTX RADARS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP SOME ECHOES JUST
OFFSHORE...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE VIRGA AT THE MOMENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS INCREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...AS MILD AND MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR OVERRUNS THE
COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AT LEAST SOME
RAIN WILL FALL PDX METRO NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT...POSSIBLY
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. 06Z GFS/NAM APPEAR TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP WITH
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE GFS
NOW INDICATING LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE COAST RANGE BY MIDDAY. DECIDED
TO INCREASE POPS TODAY AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SALEM.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD FAST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LIKELY
BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE OREGON COAST RANGE AFTER
THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE
SOME CLEARING IN LANE COUNTY BY THE TIME THE DAY IS DONE...AND WITH
THE WARMING AIR MASS ALOFT IT IS POSSIBLE EUGENE COULD PUSH WELL INTO
THE 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WILL TARGET THE WA COAST...MAINLY THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA...BUT PACIFIC
COUNTY MAY GET BRUSHED WITH RAIN TOTALS UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH BY
THIS EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM FROM
+4 DEG C TODAY TO +12 TO +14 DEG C MONDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS. COASTAL
LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S DUE TO AN EARLY AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW SUGGEST TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HOLD
OFF THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS WENT WITH THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTION...AND
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND THAT STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...00Z MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD THAN THEY HAVE THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE KONA LOW THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING JUST NW OF HAWAII THE
PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY MAKING A DECISIVE TURN NORTHEAST WHERE IT
WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES. THIS UPPER LOW IS NOW NEAR
30N/160W...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO OUR TUESDAY
FRONT. WITH A MORE PREDICTABLE PATTERN NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC...MODELS ARE SHOWING CONSENSUS ON A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC
NW WED...SO WE INCREASED POPS WED AS A RESULT. 00Z/06Z GFS SHOW
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ADDING THUNDER FOR NOW...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE MODEL AGREEMENT HOLD
FOR A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE DOING SO. BEYOND WEDNESDAY TIMING
OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...SO
WE KEPT GENERIC SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST. ONCE TEMPS
FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL MIDWEEK...THEY SHOULD STAY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING. THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PATTERN MAY ALLOW
SOME PATCHY IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH. LIGHT
WARM FRONTAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON AT TIMES TODAY...WITH AREAS OF MVFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO FORM TO
THE W AND N OF KPDX...BUT EXPECT THE TERMINAL TO STAY CLEAR.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 06Z
MON. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT INLAND THIS MORNING...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING.

EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AND MON AND SURFACE HIGH PRES
RETURNS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MON NIGHT AND
EARLY TUE. THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION...WITH
SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME MON NIGHT OR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE WATERS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN N CALIF. THIS MAY BRING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT
TIMES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT ABOUT 5 FT. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIKELY TO SEE SOME MIXED
SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
WIND WAVES REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUT OF THE S-SW AND A WEST LONGER
PERIOD FRESH SWELL. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 261029
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
329 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS WEAKENING AND MOVING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF SALEM. ONCE THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH...RAIN SHOULD BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON THE NORTH COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ENDING TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS FURTHER NORTH INTO WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER TO THE
DISTRICT MONDAY. A WEAK BUT FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY...WITH COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES BRUSHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS SW WA/NW OR AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COUPLE FLURRIES IN
THE CASCADE PASSES...MAINLY DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW. ANY LINGERING FLURRIES WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END BY
DAYBREAK AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD AND FLOW BEGINS TO TURN OFFSHORE.
IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE FLURRIES WILL RESULT IN ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OFF CHILLY THIS MORNING WITH PLENTY OF 30S
ACROSS THE DISTRICT. TEMPS WILL BE SLUGGISH TO WARM UP INITIALLY DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONT...PRESENTLY
CROSSING 130W AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON
COAST. KLGX/KRTX RADARS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP SOME ECHOES JUST
OFFSHORE...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE VIRGA AT THE MOMENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS INCREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...AS MILD AND MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR OVERRUNS THE
COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AT LEAST SOME
RAIN WILL FALL PDX METRO NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT...POSSIBLY
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. 06Z GFS/NAM APPEAR TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP WITH
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE GFS
NOW INDICATING LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE COAST RANGE BY MIDDAY. DECIDED
TO INCREASE POPS TODAY AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SALEM.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD FAST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LIKELY
BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE OREGON COAST RANGE AFTER
THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE
SOME CLEARING IN LANE COUNTY BY THE TIME THE DAY IS DONE...AND WITH
THE WARMING AIR MASS ALOFT IT IS POSSIBLE EUGENE COULD PUSH WELL INTO
THE 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WILL TARGET THE WA COAST...MAINLY THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA...BUT PACIFIC
COUNTY MAY GET BRUSHED WITH RAIN TOTALS UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH BY
THIS EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM FROM
+4 DEG C TODAY TO +12 TO +14 DEG C MONDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS. COASTAL
LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S DUE TO AN EARLY AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW SUGGEST TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HOLD
OFF THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS WENT WITH THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTION...AND
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND THAT STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...00Z MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD THAN THEY HAVE THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE KONA LOW THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING JUST NW OF HAWAII THE
PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY MAKING A DECISIVE TURN NORTHEAST WHERE IT
WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES. THIS UPPER LOW IS NOW NEAR
30N/160W...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO OUR TUESDAY
FRONT. WITH A MORE PREDICTABLE PATTERN NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC...MODELS ARE SHOWING CONSENSUS ON A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC
NW WED...SO WE INCREASED POPS WED AS A RESULT. 00Z/06Z GFS SHOW
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ADDING THUNDER FOR NOW...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE MODEL AGREEMENT HOLD
FOR A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE DOING SO. BEYOND WEDNESDAY TIMING
OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...SO
WE KEPT GENERIC SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST. ONCE TEMPS
FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL MIDWEEK...THEY SHOULD STAY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING. THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PATTERN MAY ALLOW
SOME PATCHY IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH. LIGHT
WARM FRONTAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON AT TIMES TODAY...WITH AREAS OF MVFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO FORM TO
THE W AND N OF KPDX...BUT EXPECT THE TERMINAL TO STAY CLEAR.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 06Z
MON. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT INLAND THIS MORNING...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING.

EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AND MON AND SURFACE HIGH PRES
RETURNS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MON NIGHT AND
EARLY TUE. THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION...WITH
SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME MON NIGHT OR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE WATERS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN N CALIF. THIS MAY BRING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT
TIMES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT ABOUT 5 FT. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIKELY TO SEE SOME MIXED
SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
WIND WAVES REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUT OF THE S-SW AND A WEST LONGER
PERIOD FRESH SWELL. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 260935
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
235 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL EXIST
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
STILL OFF THE COAST. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...NAMELY THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEYS AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL OREGON. THESE AREAS HAVE A
FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING UNTIL 9 AM. TODAY THE UPPER RIDGE OFF
THE COAST WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CAUSING A WARMING
TREND TO TAKE PLACE BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHICH WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. SOME AREAS ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY AND MONDAY BUT
THEY WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST. 88

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIR...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS A LOT TO BE DESIRED.  WINDS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE 15-30 MPH FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...AND IT`S POSSIBLE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL POSITION OVER WA/OR
WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.  PER DISCUSSION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...I WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE CASCADES BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE COLD UPPER LOW SIMILAR TO THE LATEST RUNS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY A W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH VARYING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY AOA 10,000 FEET AGL.  WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  39  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  61  43  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  64  41  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  63  40  71  45 /   0   0  10   0
HRI  63  39  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  63  38  71  42 /   0  10  10   0
RDM  61  32  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  56  36  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  58  36  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  67  42  77  47 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ510.

WA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR WAZ026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85



000
FXUS66 KPDT 260935
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
235 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL EXIST
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
STILL OFF THE COAST. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...NAMELY THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEYS AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL OREGON. THESE AREAS HAVE A
FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING UNTIL 9 AM. TODAY THE UPPER RIDGE OFF
THE COAST WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CAUSING A WARMING
TREND TO TAKE PLACE BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHICH WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. SOME AREAS ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY AND MONDAY BUT
THEY WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST. 88

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIR...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS A LOT TO BE DESIRED.  WINDS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE 15-30 MPH FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...AND IT`S POSSIBLE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL POSITION OVER WA/OR
WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.  PER DISCUSSION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...I WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE CASCADES BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE COLD UPPER LOW SIMILAR TO THE LATEST RUNS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY A W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH VARYING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY AOA 10,000 FEET AGL.  WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  39  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  61  43  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  64  41  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  63  40  71  45 /   0   0  10   0
HRI  63  39  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  63  38  71  42 /   0  10  10   0
RDM  61  32  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  56  36  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  58  36  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  67  42  77  47 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ510.

WA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR WAZ026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85



000
FXUS66 KPDT 260935
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
235 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL EXIST
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
STILL OFF THE COAST. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...NAMELY THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEYS AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL OREGON. THESE AREAS HAVE A
FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING UNTIL 9 AM. TODAY THE UPPER RIDGE OFF
THE COAST WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CAUSING A WARMING
TREND TO TAKE PLACE BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHICH WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. SOME AREAS ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY AND MONDAY BUT
THEY WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST. 88

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIR...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS A LOT TO BE DESIRED.  WINDS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE 15-30 MPH FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...AND IT`S POSSIBLE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL POSITION OVER WA/OR
WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.  PER DISCUSSION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...I WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE CASCADES BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE COLD UPPER LOW SIMILAR TO THE LATEST RUNS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY A W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH VARYING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY AOA 10,000 FEET AGL.  WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  39  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  61  43  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  64  41  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  63  40  71  45 /   0   0  10   0
HRI  63  39  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  63  38  71  42 /   0  10  10   0
RDM  61  32  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  56  36  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  58  36  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  67  42  77  47 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ510.

WA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR WAZ026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85



000
FXUS66 KPDT 260935
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
235 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL EXIST
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
STILL OFF THE COAST. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...NAMELY THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEYS AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL OREGON. THESE AREAS HAVE A
FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING UNTIL 9 AM. TODAY THE UPPER RIDGE OFF
THE COAST WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CAUSING A WARMING
TREND TO TAKE PLACE BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHICH WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. SOME AREAS ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY AND MONDAY BUT
THEY WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST. 88

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIR...AS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS A LOT TO BE DESIRED.  WINDS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE 15-30 MPH FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...AND IT`S POSSIBLE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL POSITION OVER WA/OR
WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.  PER DISCUSSION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...I WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE CASCADES BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE COLD UPPER LOW SIMILAR TO THE LATEST RUNS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY A W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH VARYING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY AOA 10,000 FEET AGL.  WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  39  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  61  43  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  64  41  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  63  40  71  45 /   0   0  10   0
HRI  63  39  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  63  38  71  42 /   0  10  10   0
RDM  61  32  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  56  36  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  58  36  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  67  42  77  47 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ510.

WA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR WAZ026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85



000
FXUS65 KBOI 260844
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 09Z UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM ERN WA SSEWD
THROUGH WRN ID...ERN NV...TO AZ.  TROUGH NARROWING AS IT MOVES EAST
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DRYING AND WINDY TODAY...CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN SUNNY AND WARMING
MONDAY.  NW WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE UPPER
TREASURE VALLEY EAST OF BOISE.  SLIGHTLY LESS WIND IN THE MAGIC
VALLEY WITH FLOW ALOFT LESS FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH THE TERRAIN.
WE CHOOSE NOT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THESE WINDS.  MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE LIKE MAXS YESTERDAY AND TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COLD
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER BASINS...AND LOWER
TO MID 30S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.  MONDAY WILL BE 7 TO 14 DEGS WARMER
THAN TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST WARMING IN OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS AGREE ON A HIGH
AMPLITUDE POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. STARTING WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH...ALLOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH INLAND...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT APPROACHES THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE...WITH MOST PRECIPITATION STAYING NORTH OF OUR CWA. FOLLOWING
THE TROUGH WE CAN EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS EAST OF MCCALL ENDING THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS...
NORTHWEST 10-20 KTS INCREASING TO 15-25G35 KTS BY 18Z...DIMINISHING
TO 10-20 KTS AFTER 03Z. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH 15-25 KTS
UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 260844
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 09Z UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM ERN WA SSEWD
THROUGH WRN ID...ERN NV...TO AZ.  TROUGH NARROWING AS IT MOVES EAST
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DRYING AND WINDY TODAY...CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN SUNNY AND WARMING
MONDAY.  NW WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE UPPER
TREASURE VALLEY EAST OF BOISE.  SLIGHTLY LESS WIND IN THE MAGIC
VALLEY WITH FLOW ALOFT LESS FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH THE TERRAIN.
WE CHOOSE NOT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THESE WINDS.  MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE LIKE MAXS YESTERDAY AND TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COLD
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER BASINS...AND LOWER
TO MID 30S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.  MONDAY WILL BE 7 TO 14 DEGS WARMER
THAN TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST WARMING IN OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS AGREE ON A HIGH
AMPLITUDE POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. STARTING WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH...ALLOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH INLAND...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT APPROACHES THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE...WITH MOST PRECIPITATION STAYING NORTH OF OUR CWA. FOLLOWING
THE TROUGH WE CAN EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS EAST OF MCCALL ENDING THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS...
NORTHWEST 10-20 KTS INCREASING TO 15-25G35 KTS BY 18Z...DIMINISHING
TO 10-20 KTS AFTER 03Z. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH 15-25 KTS
UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 260844
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 09Z UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM ERN WA SSEWD
THROUGH WRN ID...ERN NV...TO AZ.  TROUGH NARROWING AS IT MOVES EAST
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DRYING AND WINDY TODAY...CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN SUNNY AND WARMING
MONDAY.  NW WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE UPPER
TREASURE VALLEY EAST OF BOISE.  SLIGHTLY LESS WIND IN THE MAGIC
VALLEY WITH FLOW ALOFT LESS FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH THE TERRAIN.
WE CHOOSE NOT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THESE WINDS.  MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE LIKE MAXS YESTERDAY AND TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COLD
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER BASINS...AND LOWER
TO MID 30S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.  MONDAY WILL BE 7 TO 14 DEGS WARMER
THAN TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST WARMING IN OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS AGREE ON A HIGH
AMPLITUDE POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. STARTING WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH...ALLOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH INLAND...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT APPROACHES THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE...WITH MOST PRECIPITATION STAYING NORTH OF OUR CWA. FOLLOWING
THE TROUGH WE CAN EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS EAST OF MCCALL ENDING THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS...
NORTHWEST 10-20 KTS INCREASING TO 15-25G35 KTS BY 18Z...DIMINISHING
TO 10-20 KTS AFTER 03Z. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH 15-25 KTS
UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 260844
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 09Z UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM ERN WA SSEWD
THROUGH WRN ID...ERN NV...TO AZ.  TROUGH NARROWING AS IT MOVES EAST
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DRYING AND WINDY TODAY...CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN SUNNY AND WARMING
MONDAY.  NW WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE UPPER
TREASURE VALLEY EAST OF BOISE.  SLIGHTLY LESS WIND IN THE MAGIC
VALLEY WITH FLOW ALOFT LESS FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH THE TERRAIN.
WE CHOOSE NOT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THESE WINDS.  MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE LIKE MAXS YESTERDAY AND TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COLD
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER BASINS...AND LOWER
TO MID 30S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.  MONDAY WILL BE 7 TO 14 DEGS WARMER
THAN TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST WARMING IN OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS AGREE ON A HIGH
AMPLITUDE POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. STARTING WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH...ALLOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH INLAND...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT APPROACHES THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE...WITH MOST PRECIPITATION STAYING NORTH OF OUR CWA. FOLLOWING
THE TROUGH WE CAN EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS EAST OF MCCALL ENDING THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS...
NORTHWEST 10-20 KTS INCREASING TO 15-25G35 KTS BY 18Z...DIMINISHING
TO 10-20 KTS AFTER 03Z. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH 15-25 KTS
UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 260844
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 09Z UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM ERN WA SSEWD
THROUGH WRN ID...ERN NV...TO AZ.  TROUGH NARROWING AS IT MOVES EAST
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DRYING AND WINDY TODAY...CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN SUNNY AND WARMING
MONDAY.  NW WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE UPPER
TREASURE VALLEY EAST OF BOISE.  SLIGHTLY LESS WIND IN THE MAGIC
VALLEY WITH FLOW ALOFT LESS FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH THE TERRAIN.
WE CHOOSE NOT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THESE WINDS.  MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE LIKE MAXS YESTERDAY AND TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COLD
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER BASINS...AND LOWER
TO MID 30S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.  MONDAY WILL BE 7 TO 14 DEGS WARMER
THAN TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST WARMING IN OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS AGREE ON A HIGH
AMPLITUDE POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. STARTING WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH...ALLOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH INLAND...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT APPROACHES THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE...WITH MOST PRECIPITATION STAYING NORTH OF OUR CWA. FOLLOWING
THE TROUGH WE CAN EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS EAST OF MCCALL ENDING THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS...
NORTHWEST 10-20 KTS INCREASING TO 15-25G35 KTS BY 18Z...DIMINISHING
TO 10-20 KTS AFTER 03Z. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH 15-25 KTS
UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 260844
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 09Z UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM ERN WA SSEWD
THROUGH WRN ID...ERN NV...TO AZ.  TROUGH NARROWING AS IT MOVES EAST
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DRYING AND WINDY TODAY...CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN SUNNY AND WARMING
MONDAY.  NW WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE UPPER
TREASURE VALLEY EAST OF BOISE.  SLIGHTLY LESS WIND IN THE MAGIC
VALLEY WITH FLOW ALOFT LESS FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH THE TERRAIN.
WE CHOOSE NOT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THESE WINDS.  MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE LIKE MAXS YESTERDAY AND TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COLD
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER BASINS...AND LOWER
TO MID 30S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.  MONDAY WILL BE 7 TO 14 DEGS WARMER
THAN TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST WARMING IN OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS AGREE ON A HIGH
AMPLITUDE POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. STARTING WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH...ALLOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH INLAND...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT APPROACHES THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE...WITH MOST PRECIPITATION STAYING NORTH OF OUR CWA. FOLLOWING
THE TROUGH WE CAN EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS EAST OF MCCALL ENDING THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS...
NORTHWEST 10-20 KTS INCREASING TO 15-25G35 KTS BY 18Z...DIMINISHING
TO 10-20 KTS AFTER 03Z. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH 15-25 KTS
UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS66 KMFR 260551
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1051 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WERE TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE, TO ADD THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY, AND TO FINE TUNE THE WIND FORECAST IN THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE THAT HELPED FORM SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAS MOVED EAST OF LAKE
COUNTY THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED 140 KNOT
NORTHWESTERLY JET MAXIMUM. THUS, THE THREAT FOR THUNDER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE IS OVER.

A 700MB TROUGH LAGGING BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS BRINGING
ONE LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST SIDE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TO THE AREA, WITH CLOUDS MOST NUMEROUS FROM
THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
LITTLE MORE OF A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, AS WELL.

THIS WARM FRONT WILL YIELD A RAPID, SUBSTANTIAL, BUT BRIEF WARM-UP
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
WAS OBSERVED TODAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BEGINNING WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, OPERATIONAL
NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE TEMPERATURES AGAIN RETURNING
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TRENDS IN CLIMATE ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN INDICATING A
PERIOD OF COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS (THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
SO) DURING ABOUT THE FIRST WEEK IN MAY. WHILE THIS IS GENERALLY
GOOD NEWS FOR SLOWING DRYING AND THE ONSET OF FIRE SEASON, IT
APPEARS THAT WE`LL RUN THE RISK OF SOME COLD NIGHTS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WHICH COULD BE OF CONCERN FOR THOSE TRYING TO GET AN
EARLY START ON SUMMER GARDENS. WE`LL ALSO NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR DRY COLD FRONTS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AS TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS INLAND. A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN
MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST, PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING. EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE OREGON
CASCADES AND LOWER KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT SATURDAY, APR 25, 2015... LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON SUNDAY SWITCHING WINDS TO SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE RAIN. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A BRIEF AND WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT.
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD ON TUESDAY AND WILL APPROACH 10 FEET
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. STRONGER NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FRONT. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...25/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ALIGNED ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...AND SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ONE WAVE IS COMING IN NOW...AND SHOWERS ARE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THERE MAY EVEN BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT THAT APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

ONCE THAT WAVE MOVES OUT THIS EVENING...A STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST. AFTER A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A STRETCH OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND OVER THE WEST SIDE
MONDAY...AND THAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY FOR THAT AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST SIDE TUESDAY AND THAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY THERE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BE WEAK AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE
TUESDAY MORNING. IT WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT ONSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST AND
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FARTHER INLAND. THE 25/12Z GFS SOLUTION
MOVED THE TIMING UP RATHER THAN DELAYING IT AS HAS BEEN THE TREND
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THOUGHT THIS TREND WOULD CONTINUE AND
IT MAY YET...BUT FOR NOW IT LINES UP WELL WITH THE EC SOLUTION.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/JRS/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 260551
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1051 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WERE TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE, TO ADD THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY, AND TO FINE TUNE THE WIND FORECAST IN THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE THAT HELPED FORM SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAS MOVED EAST OF LAKE
COUNTY THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED 140 KNOT
NORTHWESTERLY JET MAXIMUM. THUS, THE THREAT FOR THUNDER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE IS OVER.

A 700MB TROUGH LAGGING BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS BRINGING
ONE LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST SIDE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TO THE AREA, WITH CLOUDS MOST NUMEROUS FROM
THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
LITTLE MORE OF A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, AS WELL.

THIS WARM FRONT WILL YIELD A RAPID, SUBSTANTIAL, BUT BRIEF WARM-UP
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
WAS OBSERVED TODAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BEGINNING WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, OPERATIONAL
NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE TEMPERATURES AGAIN RETURNING
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TRENDS IN CLIMATE ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN INDICATING A
PERIOD OF COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS (THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
SO) DURING ABOUT THE FIRST WEEK IN MAY. WHILE THIS IS GENERALLY
GOOD NEWS FOR SLOWING DRYING AND THE ONSET OF FIRE SEASON, IT
APPEARS THAT WE`LL RUN THE RISK OF SOME COLD NIGHTS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WHICH COULD BE OF CONCERN FOR THOSE TRYING TO GET AN
EARLY START ON SUMMER GARDENS. WE`LL ALSO NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR DRY COLD FRONTS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AS TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS INLAND. A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN
MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST, PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING. EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE OREGON
CASCADES AND LOWER KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT SATURDAY, APR 25, 2015... LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON SUNDAY SWITCHING WINDS TO SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE RAIN. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A BRIEF AND WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT.
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD ON TUESDAY AND WILL APPROACH 10 FEET
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. STRONGER NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FRONT. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...25/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ALIGNED ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...AND SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ONE WAVE IS COMING IN NOW...AND SHOWERS ARE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THERE MAY EVEN BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT THAT APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

ONCE THAT WAVE MOVES OUT THIS EVENING...A STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST. AFTER A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A STRETCH OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND OVER THE WEST SIDE
MONDAY...AND THAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY FOR THAT AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST SIDE TUESDAY AND THAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY THERE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BE WEAK AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE
TUESDAY MORNING. IT WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT ONSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST AND
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FARTHER INLAND. THE 25/12Z GFS SOLUTION
MOVED THE TIMING UP RATHER THAN DELAYING IT AS HAS BEEN THE TREND
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THOUGHT THIS TREND WOULD CONTINUE AND
IT MAY YET...BUT FOR NOW IT LINES UP WELL WITH THE EC SOLUTION.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/JRS/BPN



000
FXUS66 KPDT 260538 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1035 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACNW WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE ISOLD SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING BY SUNDAY
MORNING OVER THIS AREA WHICH PROMPTED A FREEZE WARNING. OTHERWISE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE DONE TO THE SKY COVER AND THE PRESENT SHORT
TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN LCL MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME AREAS BUT OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COLD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS WHERE GROWING SEASON IS
UNDERWAY. THUS A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME ZONES.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMMENCE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING BACK A SPRING WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK FRONT TO ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO COOL.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND POPS WILL BE LOW. IT WILL BE
WINDY IN SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AND  KITTITAS VALLEY. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES OVER WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN RECENT
RUNS BUT DETAILS HAVE VARIED AS IS COMMON IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
THEREFORE I HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THAN NORMAL.  COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  60  40  70 /  20   0   0   0
ALW  40  63  44  73 /  20   0   0   0
PSC  38  66  42  75 /  20   0   0   0
YKM  32  65  41  73 /  10   0   0  10
HRI  36  65  40  75 /  20   0   0   0
ELN  32  65  39  73 /  10   0  10  10
RDM  24  63  33  77 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  33  58  37  69 /  30   0   0   0
GCD  32  60  37  75 /  40   0   0   0
DLS  39  69  43  79 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ510.

WA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WAZ026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97




000
FXUS66 KPDT 260538 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1035 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACNW WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE ISOLD SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING BY SUNDAY
MORNING OVER THIS AREA WHICH PROMPTED A FREEZE WARNING. OTHERWISE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE DONE TO THE SKY COVER AND THE PRESENT SHORT
TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN LCL MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME AREAS BUT OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COLD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS WHERE GROWING SEASON IS
UNDERWAY. THUS A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME ZONES.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMMENCE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING BACK A SPRING WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK FRONT TO ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO COOL.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND POPS WILL BE LOW. IT WILL BE
WINDY IN SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AND  KITTITAS VALLEY. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES OVER WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN RECENT
RUNS BUT DETAILS HAVE VARIED AS IS COMMON IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
THEREFORE I HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THAN NORMAL.  COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  60  40  70 /  20   0   0   0
ALW  40  63  44  73 /  20   0   0   0
PSC  38  66  42  75 /  20   0   0   0
YKM  32  65  41  73 /  10   0   0  10
HRI  36  65  40  75 /  20   0   0   0
ELN  32  65  39  73 /  10   0  10  10
RDM  24  63  33  77 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  33  58  37  69 /  30   0   0   0
GCD  32  60  37  75 /  40   0   0   0
DLS  39  69  43  79 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ510.

WA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WAZ026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97



000
FXUS66 KPDT 260423 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
915 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACNW WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE ISOLD SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING BY SUNDAY
MORNING OVER THIS AREA WHICH PROMPTED A FREEZE WARNING. OTHERWISE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE DONE TO THE SKY COVER AND THE PRESENT SHORT
TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME AREAS BUT OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COLD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS WHERE GROWING SEASON IS
UNDERWAY. THUS A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME ZONES.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMMENCE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING BACK A SPRING WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK FRONT TO ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO COOL.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND POPS WILL BE LOW. IT WILL BE
WINDY IN SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AND  KITTITAS VALLEY. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES OVER WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN RECENT
RUNS BUT DETAILS HAVE VARIED AS IS COMMON IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
THEREFORE I HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THAN NORMAL.  COONFIELD

AVIATION...0Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS WHEN CIGS LOWER TO MVFR UNTIL
03Z DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VARYING
BASES BETWEEN 3500-15000 FEET AGL CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...
HEN CLEARING WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD INCREASING TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10-20 KNOTS THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO 0-8 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  60  40  70 /  20   0   0   0
ALW  40  63  44  73 /  20   0   0   0
PSC  38  66  42  75 /  20   0   0   0
YKM  32  65  41  73 /  10   0   0  10
HRI  36  65  40  75 /  20   0   0   0
ELN  32  65  39  73 /  10   0  10  10
RDM  24  63  33  77 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  33  58  37  69 /  30   0   0   0
GCD  32  60  37  75 /  40   0   0   0
DLS  39  69  43  79 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ510.

WA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WAZ026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97



000
FXUS66 KPDT 260423 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
915 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACNW WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE ISOLD SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING BY SUNDAY
MORNING OVER THIS AREA WHICH PROMPTED A FREEZE WARNING. OTHERWISE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE DONE TO THE SKY COVER AND THE PRESENT SHORT
TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME AREAS BUT OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COLD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS WHERE GROWING SEASON IS
UNDERWAY. THUS A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME ZONES.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMMENCE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING BACK A SPRING WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK FRONT TO ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO COOL.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND POPS WILL BE LOW. IT WILL BE
WINDY IN SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AND  KITTITAS VALLEY. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES OVER WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN RECENT
RUNS BUT DETAILS HAVE VARIED AS IS COMMON IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
THEREFORE I HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THAN NORMAL.  COONFIELD

AVIATION...0Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS WHEN CIGS LOWER TO MVFR UNTIL
03Z DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VARYING
BASES BETWEEN 3500-15000 FEET AGL CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...
HEN CLEARING WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD INCREASING TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10-20 KNOTS THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO 0-8 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  60  40  70 /  20   0   0   0
ALW  40  63  44  73 /  20   0   0   0
PSC  38  66  42  75 /  20   0   0   0
YKM  32  65  41  73 /  10   0   0  10
HRI  36  65  40  75 /  20   0   0   0
ELN  32  65  39  73 /  10   0  10  10
RDM  24  63  33  77 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  33  58  37  69 /  30   0   0   0
GCD  32  60  37  75 /  40   0   0   0
DLS  39  69  43  79 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ510.

WA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WAZ026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97



000
FXUS66 KPDT 260423 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
915 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACNW WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE ISOLD SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING BY SUNDAY
MORNING OVER THIS AREA WHICH PROMPTED A FREEZE WARNING. OTHERWISE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE DONE TO THE SKY COVER AND THE PRESENT SHORT
TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME AREAS BUT OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COLD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS WHERE GROWING SEASON IS
UNDERWAY. THUS A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME ZONES.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMMENCE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING BACK A SPRING WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK FRONT TO ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO COOL.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND POPS WILL BE LOW. IT WILL BE
WINDY IN SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AND  KITTITAS VALLEY. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES OVER WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN RECENT
RUNS BUT DETAILS HAVE VARIED AS IS COMMON IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
THEREFORE I HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THAN NORMAL.  COONFIELD

AVIATION...0Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS WHEN CIGS LOWER TO MVFR UNTIL
03Z DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VARYING
BASES BETWEEN 3500-15000 FEET AGL CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...
HEN CLEARING WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD INCREASING TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10-20 KNOTS THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO 0-8 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  60  40  70 /  20   0   0   0
ALW  40  63  44  73 /  20   0   0   0
PSC  38  66  42  75 /  20   0   0   0
YKM  32  65  41  73 /  10   0   0  10
HRI  36  65  40  75 /  20   0   0   0
ELN  32  65  39  73 /  10   0  10  10
RDM  24  63  33  77 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  33  58  37  69 /  30   0   0   0
GCD  32  60  37  75 /  40   0   0   0
DLS  39  69  43  79 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ510.

WA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WAZ026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97



000
FXUS66 KPDT 260423 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
915 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACNW WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE ISOLD SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING BY SUNDAY
MORNING OVER THIS AREA WHICH PROMPTED A FREEZE WARNING. OTHERWISE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE DONE TO THE SKY COVER AND THE PRESENT SHORT
TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME AREAS BUT OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COLD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS WHERE GROWING SEASON IS
UNDERWAY. THUS A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME ZONES.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMMENCE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING BACK A SPRING WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK FRONT TO ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO COOL.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND POPS WILL BE LOW. IT WILL BE
WINDY IN SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AND  KITTITAS VALLEY. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES OVER WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN RECENT
RUNS BUT DETAILS HAVE VARIED AS IS COMMON IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
THEREFORE I HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THAN NORMAL.  COONFIELD

AVIATION...0Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS WHEN CIGS LOWER TO MVFR UNTIL
03Z DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VARYING
BASES BETWEEN 3500-15000 FEET AGL CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...
HEN CLEARING WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD INCREASING TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10-20 KNOTS THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO 0-8 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  60  40  70 /  20   0   0   0
ALW  40  63  44  73 /  20   0   0   0
PSC  38  66  42  75 /  20   0   0   0
YKM  32  65  41  73 /  10   0   0  10
HRI  36  65  40  75 /  20   0   0   0
ELN  32  65  39  73 /  10   0  10  10
RDM  24  63  33  77 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  33  58  37  69 /  30   0   0   0
GCD  32  60  37  75 /  40   0   0   0
DLS  39  69  43  79 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ510.

WA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WAZ026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97



000
FXUS66 KMFR 260402
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
902 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WERE TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE, TO ADD THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY, AND TO FINE TUNE THE WIND FORECAST IN THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE THAT HELPED FORM SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAS MOVED EAST OF LAKE
COUNTY THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED 140 KNOT
NORTHWESTERLY JET MAXIMUM. THUS, THE THREAT FOR THUNDER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE IS OVER.

A 700MB TROUGH LAGGING BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS BRINGING
ONE LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST SIDE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TO THE AREA, WITH CLOUDS MOST NUMEROUS FROM
THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
LITTLE MORE OF A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, AS WELL.

THIS WARM FRONT WILL YIELD A RAPID, SUBSTANTIAL, BUT BRIEF WARM-UP
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
WAS OBSERVED TODAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BEGINNING WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, OPERATIONAL
NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE TEMPERATURES AGAIN RETURNING
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TRENDS IN CLIMATE ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN INDICATING A
PERIOD OF COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS (THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
SO) DURING ABOUT THE FIRST WEEK IN MAY. WHILE THIS IS GENERALLY
GOOD NEWS FOR SLOWING DRYING AND THE ONSET OF FIRE SEASON, IT
APPEARS THAT WE`LL RUN THE RISK OF SOME COLD NIGHTS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WHICH COULD BE OF CONCERN FOR THOSE TRYING TO GET AN
EARLY START ON SUMMER GARDENS. WE`LL ALSO NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR DRY COLD FRONTS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BRING
CIGS DOWN TO MVFR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE SKY WILL BE
VFR OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH CEILING HEIGHTS MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO
OBSCURE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO PRESS INTO THE COASTAL
AREA BY 16Z AS A WARM FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT SATURDAY, APR 25, 2015...GENERALLY
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...SWITCHING WINDS TO SOUTHERLY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
A THERMAL TROUGH THEN EXPANDS NORTH TO AROUND CAPE BLANCO.

ANOTHER TRAIN OF WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND SLOWLY
RISE TO NEAR 10 FEET BY WEDNESDAY.

IN THE LONG-TERM...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE THERMAL TROUGH
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT ONCE ESTABLISHED
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. /FB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...25/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ALIGNED ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...AND SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ONE WAVE IS COMING IN NOW...AND SHOWERS ARE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THERE MAY EVEN BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT THAT APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

ONCE THAT WAVE MOVES OUT THIS EVENING...A STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST. AFTER A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A STRETCH OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND OVER THE WEST SIDE
MONDAY...AND THAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY FOR THAT AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST SIDE TUESDAY AND THAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY THERE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BE WEAK AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE
TUESDAY MORNING. IT WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT ONSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST AND
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FARTHER INLAND. THE 25/12Z GFS SOLUTION
MOVED THE TIMING UP RATHER THAN DELAYING IT AS HAS BEEN THE TREND
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THOUGHT THIS TREND WOULD CONTINUE AND
IT MAY YET...BUT FOR NOW IT LINES UP WELL WITH THE EC SOLUTION.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/JRS/BPN/FJB



000
FXUS66 KMFR 260402
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
902 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WERE TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE, TO ADD THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY, AND TO FINE TUNE THE WIND FORECAST IN THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE THAT HELPED FORM SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAS MOVED EAST OF LAKE
COUNTY THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED 140 KNOT
NORTHWESTERLY JET MAXIMUM. THUS, THE THREAT FOR THUNDER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE IS OVER.

A 700MB TROUGH LAGGING BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS BRINGING
ONE LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST SIDE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TO THE AREA, WITH CLOUDS MOST NUMEROUS FROM
THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
LITTLE MORE OF A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, AS WELL.

THIS WARM FRONT WILL YIELD A RAPID, SUBSTANTIAL, BUT BRIEF WARM-UP
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
WAS OBSERVED TODAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BEGINNING WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, OPERATIONAL
NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE TEMPERATURES AGAIN RETURNING
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TRENDS IN CLIMATE ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN INDICATING A
PERIOD OF COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS (THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
SO) DURING ABOUT THE FIRST WEEK IN MAY. WHILE THIS IS GENERALLY
GOOD NEWS FOR SLOWING DRYING AND THE ONSET OF FIRE SEASON, IT
APPEARS THAT WE`LL RUN THE RISK OF SOME COLD NIGHTS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WHICH COULD BE OF CONCERN FOR THOSE TRYING TO GET AN
EARLY START ON SUMMER GARDENS. WE`LL ALSO NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR DRY COLD FRONTS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BRING
CIGS DOWN TO MVFR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE SKY WILL BE
VFR OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH CEILING HEIGHTS MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO
OBSCURE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO PRESS INTO THE COASTAL
AREA BY 16Z AS A WARM FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT SATURDAY, APR 25, 2015...GENERALLY
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...SWITCHING WINDS TO SOUTHERLY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
A THERMAL TROUGH THEN EXPANDS NORTH TO AROUND CAPE BLANCO.

ANOTHER TRAIN OF WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND SLOWLY
RISE TO NEAR 10 FEET BY WEDNESDAY.

IN THE LONG-TERM...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE THERMAL TROUGH
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT ONCE ESTABLISHED
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. /FB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...25/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ALIGNED ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...AND SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ONE WAVE IS COMING IN NOW...AND SHOWERS ARE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THERE MAY EVEN BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT THAT APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

ONCE THAT WAVE MOVES OUT THIS EVENING...A STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST. AFTER A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A STRETCH OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND OVER THE WEST SIDE
MONDAY...AND THAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY FOR THAT AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST SIDE TUESDAY AND THAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY THERE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BE WEAK AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE
TUESDAY MORNING. IT WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT ONSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST AND
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FARTHER INLAND. THE 25/12Z GFS SOLUTION
MOVED THE TIMING UP RATHER THAN DELAYING IT AS HAS BEEN THE TREND
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THOUGHT THIS TREND WOULD CONTINUE AND
IT MAY YET...BUT FOR NOW IT LINES UP WELL WITH THE EC SOLUTION.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/JRS/BPN/FJB




000
FXUS66 KPQR 260310
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
810 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST FEW DAYS IS MOVING EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING
SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AS HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES IN. LOOK FOR
PARTIAL CLEARING AND SOME LOCAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...MAINLY THE COAST
BUT POSSIBLY CLOSE TO PORTLAND. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH BY MONDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR SIGNIFICANT WARMING.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING RAIN EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WE DID GET ISOLATED
CONVECTION AROUND THE AREA MAINLY FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD...AND FROM ABOUT LINN COUNTY NORTHWARD. DID GET
ONE REPORT OF THUNDER NORTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN PORTLAND OTHERWISE
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN SPARSE. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON... EXPECT THE LAST
REMAINING SHOWERS TO FINISH SETTLING DOWN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IN
COMBINATION WITH LOSING OUR DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER THAT...LOOK FOR PARTIAL CLEARING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN. BUT THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FOG OR
LOW CLOUDS. ALSO...DEWPOINTS HAVE LOWERED IN MANY AREAS INTO THE
30S...SO LOOK FOR A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE 30S
EARLY SUNDAY.

THE MODELS STILL SAY A WARM FRONT WILL RIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND
BRUSH OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL AND INLAND SPREAD OF THE LIGHT RAIN. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MIGHT REACH THE COAST BY LATE MORNING AND SPREAD
INLAND MAINLY NORTH OF SALEM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR COAST. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARMING...SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY
FROM THOSE TODAY.

THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING FOR DRYING...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM MONDAY...AND WE HAVE A
CHANCE OF GETTING CLOSE TO 80 AGAIN IN SOME OF OUR INLAND VALLEYS.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY... FASTER
THAN THE MODELS JUST 24 TO 48 HOURS AGO. SNOW LEVELS WILL APPROACH
PASS ELEVATIONS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE WANING SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK LIGHT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT THESE WILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE CASCADES BEFORE COMING TO AN END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MARKED BY A MEAN
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A MEAN TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST.
IN GENERAL...THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BUT
SIGNIFICANT VARIATION AMONG OPERATIONAL FORECAST MODELS...AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...KEEPS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE PARTICULARS OF THE
FORECAST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MADE SOME
SLIGHT CHANGES TO POPS...DRYING OUT THE COAST AND VALLEYS FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GEFS MEAN AND ECMWF QPF
FORECASTS SEEM TO SUPPORT ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THOUGH PERHAPS
FOR DIFFERENT REASONS /TIMING OF SHORTWAVE VS. FRONTAL PASSAGE/.
NONETHELESS...THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND STILL CREATE SOME CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY TREND NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THIS EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA COMING OFF
THE N OREGON COAST RANGE INTO THE N WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALSO A FEW
OTHERS IN THE N AND CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW THESE SHOWERS WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.
EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED IFR
VIS DUE TO FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 17Z SUN ALONG THE COAST AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
AREAS OF MVFR LIKELY ALONG THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST SUN AFTERNOON.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...ISOLATED CELL JUST S OF THE TERMINAL AND MOVING
SE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. BKN-OVC CIGS AS OF 03Z WILL BECOME A SCT
LAYER WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...WHICH GIVES THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMING
AROUND THE OPS AREA AFT 10Z...ESPECIALLY TO W AND N OF KPDX. EXPECT
AREAS OF IFR CLOUDS INTO SUN AM...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW LONG THESE
PERSIST DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND SUN
AM. WEISHAAR
&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRES OVER THE WATERS. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE N ACROSS THE WATERS SUN.
S WIND INCREASES LATE SUN MORNING THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON. CURRENT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND LOOKS GOOD. STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS TO BE
IN THE OUTER NRN WATERS. WIND WILL DIMINISH SUN NIGHT AS THE WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT N THROUGH THE WASHINGTON WATERS.

ANOTHER BREAK IS EXPECTED ON MON BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES MON
NIGHT OR TUE. FRONT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN THE FCST
MODELS...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND IS
CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED. FCST CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED.

SEAS REMAIN BELOW 10 FT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LIKELY TO SEE SOME
MIXED SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN OUTER WATERS SUN AFTERNOON...WITH
WIND WAVES REACHING 5 TO 6 FT OUT OF THE S-SW AND A WEST LONGER
PERIOD FRESH SWELL. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 260310
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
810 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST FEW DAYS IS MOVING EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING
SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AS HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES IN. LOOK FOR
PARTIAL CLEARING AND SOME LOCAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...MAINLY THE COAST
BUT POSSIBLY CLOSE TO PORTLAND. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH BY MONDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR SIGNIFICANT WARMING.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING RAIN EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WE DID GET ISOLATED
CONVECTION AROUND THE AREA MAINLY FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD...AND FROM ABOUT LINN COUNTY NORTHWARD. DID GET
ONE REPORT OF THUNDER NORTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN PORTLAND OTHERWISE
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN SPARSE. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON... EXPECT THE LAST
REMAINING SHOWERS TO FINISH SETTLING DOWN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IN
COMBINATION WITH LOSING OUR DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER THAT...LOOK FOR PARTIAL CLEARING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN. BUT THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FOG OR
LOW CLOUDS. ALSO...DEWPOINTS HAVE LOWERED IN MANY AREAS INTO THE
30S...SO LOOK FOR A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE 30S
EARLY SUNDAY.

THE MODELS STILL SAY A WARM FRONT WILL RIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND
BRUSH OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL AND INLAND SPREAD OF THE LIGHT RAIN. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MIGHT REACH THE COAST BY LATE MORNING AND SPREAD
INLAND MAINLY NORTH OF SALEM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR COAST. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARMING...SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY
FROM THOSE TODAY.

THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING FOR DRYING...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM MONDAY...AND WE HAVE A
CHANCE OF GETTING CLOSE TO 80 AGAIN IN SOME OF OUR INLAND VALLEYS.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY... FASTER
THAN THE MODELS JUST 24 TO 48 HOURS AGO. SNOW LEVELS WILL APPROACH
PASS ELEVATIONS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE WANING SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK LIGHT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT THESE WILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE CASCADES BEFORE COMING TO AN END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MARKED BY A MEAN
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A MEAN TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST.
IN GENERAL...THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BUT
SIGNIFICANT VARIATION AMONG OPERATIONAL FORECAST MODELS...AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...KEEPS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE PARTICULARS OF THE
FORECAST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MADE SOME
SLIGHT CHANGES TO POPS...DRYING OUT THE COAST AND VALLEYS FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GEFS MEAN AND ECMWF QPF
FORECASTS SEEM TO SUPPORT ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THOUGH PERHAPS
FOR DIFFERENT REASONS /TIMING OF SHORTWAVE VS. FRONTAL PASSAGE/.
NONETHELESS...THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND STILL CREATE SOME CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY TREND NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THIS EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA COMING OFF
THE N OREGON COAST RANGE INTO THE N WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALSO A FEW
OTHERS IN THE N AND CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW THESE SHOWERS WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.
EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED IFR
VIS DUE TO FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 17Z SUN ALONG THE COAST AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
AREAS OF MVFR LIKELY ALONG THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST SUN AFTERNOON.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...ISOLATED CELL JUST S OF THE TERMINAL AND MOVING
SE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. BKN-OVC CIGS AS OF 03Z WILL BECOME A SCT
LAYER WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...WHICH GIVES THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMING
AROUND THE OPS AREA AFT 10Z...ESPECIALLY TO W AND N OF KPDX. EXPECT
AREAS OF IFR CLOUDS INTO SUN AM...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW LONG THESE
PERSIST DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND SUN
AM. WEISHAAR
&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRES OVER THE WATERS. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE N ACROSS THE WATERS SUN.
S WIND INCREASES LATE SUN MORNING THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON. CURRENT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND LOOKS GOOD. STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS TO BE
IN THE OUTER NRN WATERS. WIND WILL DIMINISH SUN NIGHT AS THE WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT N THROUGH THE WASHINGTON WATERS.

ANOTHER BREAK IS EXPECTED ON MON BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES MON
NIGHT OR TUE. FRONT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN THE FCST
MODELS...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND IS
CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED. FCST CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED.

SEAS REMAIN BELOW 10 FT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LIKELY TO SEE SOME
MIXED SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN OUTER WATERS SUN AFTERNOON...WITH
WIND WAVES REACHING 5 TO 6 FT OUT OF THE S-SW AND A WEST LONGER
PERIOD FRESH SWELL. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 260310
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
810 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST FEW DAYS IS MOVING EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING
SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AS HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES IN. LOOK FOR
PARTIAL CLEARING AND SOME LOCAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...MAINLY THE COAST
BUT POSSIBLY CLOSE TO PORTLAND. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH BY MONDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR SIGNIFICANT WARMING.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING RAIN EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WE DID GET ISOLATED
CONVECTION AROUND THE AREA MAINLY FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD...AND FROM ABOUT LINN COUNTY NORTHWARD. DID GET
ONE REPORT OF THUNDER NORTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN PORTLAND OTHERWISE
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN SPARSE. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON... EXPECT THE LAST
REMAINING SHOWERS TO FINISH SETTLING DOWN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IN
COMBINATION WITH LOSING OUR DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER THAT...LOOK FOR PARTIAL CLEARING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN. BUT THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FOG OR
LOW CLOUDS. ALSO...DEWPOINTS HAVE LOWERED IN MANY AREAS INTO THE
30S...SO LOOK FOR A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE 30S
EARLY SUNDAY.

THE MODELS STILL SAY A WARM FRONT WILL RIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND
BRUSH OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL AND INLAND SPREAD OF THE LIGHT RAIN. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MIGHT REACH THE COAST BY LATE MORNING AND SPREAD
INLAND MAINLY NORTH OF SALEM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR COAST. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARMING...SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY
FROM THOSE TODAY.

THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING FOR DRYING...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM MONDAY...AND WE HAVE A
CHANCE OF GETTING CLOSE TO 80 AGAIN IN SOME OF OUR INLAND VALLEYS.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY... FASTER
THAN THE MODELS JUST 24 TO 48 HOURS AGO. SNOW LEVELS WILL APPROACH
PASS ELEVATIONS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE WANING SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK LIGHT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT THESE WILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE CASCADES BEFORE COMING TO AN END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MARKED BY A MEAN
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A MEAN TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST.
IN GENERAL...THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BUT
SIGNIFICANT VARIATION AMONG OPERATIONAL FORECAST MODELS...AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...KEEPS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE PARTICULARS OF THE
FORECAST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MADE SOME
SLIGHT CHANGES TO POPS...DRYING OUT THE COAST AND VALLEYS FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GEFS MEAN AND ECMWF QPF
FORECASTS SEEM TO SUPPORT ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THOUGH PERHAPS
FOR DIFFERENT REASONS /TIMING OF SHORTWAVE VS. FRONTAL PASSAGE/.
NONETHELESS...THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND STILL CREATE SOME CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY TREND NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THIS EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA COMING OFF
THE N OREGON COAST RANGE INTO THE N WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALSO A FEW
OTHERS IN THE N AND CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW THESE SHOWERS WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.
EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED IFR
VIS DUE TO FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 17Z SUN ALONG THE COAST AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
AREAS OF MVFR LIKELY ALONG THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST SUN AFTERNOON.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...ISOLATED CELL JUST S OF THE TERMINAL AND MOVING
SE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. BKN-OVC CIGS AS OF 03Z WILL BECOME A SCT
LAYER WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...WHICH GIVES THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMING
AROUND THE OPS AREA AFT 10Z...ESPECIALLY TO W AND N OF KPDX. EXPECT
AREAS OF IFR CLOUDS INTO SUN AM...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW LONG THESE
PERSIST DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND SUN
AM. WEISHAAR
&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRES OVER THE WATERS. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE N ACROSS THE WATERS SUN.
S WIND INCREASES LATE SUN MORNING THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON. CURRENT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND LOOKS GOOD. STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS TO BE
IN THE OUTER NRN WATERS. WIND WILL DIMINISH SUN NIGHT AS THE WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT N THROUGH THE WASHINGTON WATERS.

ANOTHER BREAK IS EXPECTED ON MON BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES MON
NIGHT OR TUE. FRONT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN THE FCST
MODELS...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND IS
CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED. FCST CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED.

SEAS REMAIN BELOW 10 FT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LIKELY TO SEE SOME
MIXED SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN OUTER WATERS SUN AFTERNOON...WITH
WIND WAVES REACHING 5 TO 6 FT OUT OF THE S-SW AND A WEST LONGER
PERIOD FRESH SWELL. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 260310
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
810 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST FEW DAYS IS MOVING EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING
SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AS HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES IN. LOOK FOR
PARTIAL CLEARING AND SOME LOCAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...MAINLY THE COAST
BUT POSSIBLY CLOSE TO PORTLAND. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH BY MONDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR SIGNIFICANT WARMING.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING RAIN EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WE DID GET ISOLATED
CONVECTION AROUND THE AREA MAINLY FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD...AND FROM ABOUT LINN COUNTY NORTHWARD. DID GET
ONE REPORT OF THUNDER NORTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN PORTLAND OTHERWISE
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN SPARSE. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON... EXPECT THE LAST
REMAINING SHOWERS TO FINISH SETTLING DOWN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IN
COMBINATION WITH LOSING OUR DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER THAT...LOOK FOR PARTIAL CLEARING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN. BUT THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FOG OR
LOW CLOUDS. ALSO...DEWPOINTS HAVE LOWERED IN MANY AREAS INTO THE
30S...SO LOOK FOR A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE 30S
EARLY SUNDAY.

THE MODELS STILL SAY A WARM FRONT WILL RIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND
BRUSH OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL AND INLAND SPREAD OF THE LIGHT RAIN. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MIGHT REACH THE COAST BY LATE MORNING AND SPREAD
INLAND MAINLY NORTH OF SALEM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR COAST. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARMING...SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY
FROM THOSE TODAY.

THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING FOR DRYING...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM MONDAY...AND WE HAVE A
CHANCE OF GETTING CLOSE TO 80 AGAIN IN SOME OF OUR INLAND VALLEYS.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY... FASTER
THAN THE MODELS JUST 24 TO 48 HOURS AGO. SNOW LEVELS WILL APPROACH
PASS ELEVATIONS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE WANING SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK LIGHT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT THESE WILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE CASCADES BEFORE COMING TO AN END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MARKED BY A MEAN
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A MEAN TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST.
IN GENERAL...THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BUT
SIGNIFICANT VARIATION AMONG OPERATIONAL FORECAST MODELS...AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...KEEPS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE PARTICULARS OF THE
FORECAST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MADE SOME
SLIGHT CHANGES TO POPS...DRYING OUT THE COAST AND VALLEYS FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GEFS MEAN AND ECMWF QPF
FORECASTS SEEM TO SUPPORT ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THOUGH PERHAPS
FOR DIFFERENT REASONS /TIMING OF SHORTWAVE VS. FRONTAL PASSAGE/.
NONETHELESS...THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND STILL CREATE SOME CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY TREND NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THIS EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA COMING OFF
THE N OREGON COAST RANGE INTO THE N WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALSO A FEW
OTHERS IN THE N AND CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW THESE SHOWERS WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.
EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED IFR
VIS DUE TO FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 17Z SUN ALONG THE COAST AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
AREAS OF MVFR LIKELY ALONG THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST SUN AFTERNOON.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...ISOLATED CELL JUST S OF THE TERMINAL AND MOVING
SE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. BKN-OVC CIGS AS OF 03Z WILL BECOME A SCT
LAYER WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...WHICH GIVES THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMING
AROUND THE OPS AREA AFT 10Z...ESPECIALLY TO W AND N OF KPDX. EXPECT
AREAS OF IFR CLOUDS INTO SUN AM...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW LONG THESE
PERSIST DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND SUN
AM. WEISHAAR
&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRES OVER THE WATERS. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE N ACROSS THE WATERS SUN.
S WIND INCREASES LATE SUN MORNING THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON. CURRENT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND LOOKS GOOD. STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS TO BE
IN THE OUTER NRN WATERS. WIND WILL DIMINISH SUN NIGHT AS THE WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT N THROUGH THE WASHINGTON WATERS.

ANOTHER BREAK IS EXPECTED ON MON BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES MON
NIGHT OR TUE. FRONT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN THE FCST
MODELS...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND IS
CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED. FCST CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED.

SEAS REMAIN BELOW 10 FT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LIKELY TO SEE SOME
MIXED SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN OUTER WATERS SUN AFTERNOON...WITH
WIND WAVES REACHING 5 TO 6 FT OUT OF THE S-SW AND A WEST LONGER
PERIOD FRESH SWELL. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 260237
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
837 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND DECREASING SHOWERS. NO
UPDATES NEEDED. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWED AN AREA OF SHOWERS
FROM PARTS OF MALHEUR...CANYON AND OWYHEE COUNTIES TO THE NW AND
SE. THE HRRR RADAR DEPICTION HAD THIS...AS WELL AS SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEST CENTRAL ID MTNS...WHICH SHOULD DECAY BY MIDNIGHT.
LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED OVER CENTRAL MALHEUR COUNTY AND AS OF 823PM
THE STRONGEST CELL CAPABLE OF LIGHTNING APPEARED EAST OF DUCK
VALLEY MOVING INTO NV. CLOSER TO THE NRN LOW CENTER THERE WAS MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTION /NEAR THE BLUE MTNS/ WHILE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS
WERE MOSTLY EAST OF OUR AREA. COULD SEE A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER
ACROSS E VALLEY COUNTY OR S TWIN FALLS COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CHANCES ARE SLIM...AS MENTIONED EARLIER. WIND GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY COULD APPROACH 45 MPH THROUGH 930 OR 10
PM...WITH WINDS REBUILDING SUNDAY TO 25-40 MPH ACROSS WINDIER
AREAS /KMUO/ BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST ON TRACK
FOR NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH AREAS OF LOW VFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS. SHOWERS
WILL DIE OUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING...LINGERING A LITTLE
LONGER OVER THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SURFACE
WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY...GENERALLY 10-20 KTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS IN
SHOWERS...BECOMING STRONGER UP TO 35 KTS ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
IN THE MORNING. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...NW 15-15
KTS...BECOMING NNW 20-30 KTS BY 26/12Z...AND NNW 10-20 KTS BY
27/00Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A
SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEEPER CONVECTION
ACROSS NEVADA WHICH EXTENDS TO JUST NORTH OF THE IDAHO/NEVADA
BORDER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SPLIT /A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON/ WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES TO THE S-SE AND
WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS AFTER
SUNSET BUT COULD LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA /GENERALLY EAST OF A MCCALL-TWIN FALLS LINE/ THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH/WESTERN
COLORADO WILL ENHANCE THE W-NW WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED WINDY CORRIDOR FROM MOUNTAIN
HOME TO TWIN FALLS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR GUSTS
TO 45 MPH FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE PACNW. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE
NORMAL ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND STARTING MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR 80F IN THE LOWER VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD...OR AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND
COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE MUCH
STRONGER WITH THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY BUT SINCE THEY ARE AT THE
BOTTOM OF THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONABLE VALUES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 260237
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
837 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND DECREASING SHOWERS. NO
UPDATES NEEDED. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWED AN AREA OF SHOWERS
FROM PARTS OF MALHEUR...CANYON AND OWYHEE COUNTIES TO THE NW AND
SE. THE HRRR RADAR DEPICTION HAD THIS...AS WELL AS SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEST CENTRAL ID MTNS...WHICH SHOULD DECAY BY MIDNIGHT.
LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED OVER CENTRAL MALHEUR COUNTY AND AS OF 823PM
THE STRONGEST CELL CAPABLE OF LIGHTNING APPEARED EAST OF DUCK
VALLEY MOVING INTO NV. CLOSER TO THE NRN LOW CENTER THERE WAS MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTION /NEAR THE BLUE MTNS/ WHILE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS
WERE MOSTLY EAST OF OUR AREA. COULD SEE A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER
ACROSS E VALLEY COUNTY OR S TWIN FALLS COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CHANCES ARE SLIM...AS MENTIONED EARLIER. WIND GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY COULD APPROACH 45 MPH THROUGH 930 OR 10
PM...WITH WINDS REBUILDING SUNDAY TO 25-40 MPH ACROSS WINDIER
AREAS /KMUO/ BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST ON TRACK
FOR NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH AREAS OF LOW VFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS. SHOWERS
WILL DIE OUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING...LINGERING A LITTLE
LONGER OVER THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SURFACE
WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY...GENERALLY 10-20 KTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS IN
SHOWERS...BECOMING STRONGER UP TO 35 KTS ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
IN THE MORNING. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...NW 15-15
KTS...BECOMING NNW 20-30 KTS BY 26/12Z...AND NNW 10-20 KTS BY
27/00Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A
SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEEPER CONVECTION
ACROSS NEVADA WHICH EXTENDS TO JUST NORTH OF THE IDAHO/NEVADA
BORDER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SPLIT /A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON/ WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES TO THE S-SE AND
WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS AFTER
SUNSET BUT COULD LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA /GENERALLY EAST OF A MCCALL-TWIN FALLS LINE/ THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH/WESTERN
COLORADO WILL ENHANCE THE W-NW WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED WINDY CORRIDOR FROM MOUNTAIN
HOME TO TWIN FALLS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR GUSTS
TO 45 MPH FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE PACNW. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE
NORMAL ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND STARTING MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR 80F IN THE LOWER VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD...OR AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND
COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE MUCH
STRONGER WITH THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY BUT SINCE THEY ARE AT THE
BOTTOM OF THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONABLE VALUES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 260237
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
837 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND DECREASING SHOWERS. NO
UPDATES NEEDED. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWED AN AREA OF SHOWERS
FROM PARTS OF MALHEUR...CANYON AND OWYHEE COUNTIES TO THE NW AND
SE. THE HRRR RADAR DEPICTION HAD THIS...AS WELL AS SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEST CENTRAL ID MTNS...WHICH SHOULD DECAY BY MIDNIGHT.
LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED OVER CENTRAL MALHEUR COUNTY AND AS OF 823PM
THE STRONGEST CELL CAPABLE OF LIGHTNING APPEARED EAST OF DUCK
VALLEY MOVING INTO NV. CLOSER TO THE NRN LOW CENTER THERE WAS MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTION /NEAR THE BLUE MTNS/ WHILE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS
WERE MOSTLY EAST OF OUR AREA. COULD SEE A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER
ACROSS E VALLEY COUNTY OR S TWIN FALLS COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CHANCES ARE SLIM...AS MENTIONED EARLIER. WIND GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY COULD APPROACH 45 MPH THROUGH 930 OR 10
PM...WITH WINDS REBUILDING SUNDAY TO 25-40 MPH ACROSS WINDIER
AREAS /KMUO/ BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST ON TRACK
FOR NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH AREAS OF LOW VFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS. SHOWERS
WILL DIE OUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING...LINGERING A LITTLE
LONGER OVER THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SURFACE
WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY...GENERALLY 10-20 KTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS IN
SHOWERS...BECOMING STRONGER UP TO 35 KTS ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
IN THE MORNING. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...NW 15-15
KTS...BECOMING NNW 20-30 KTS BY 26/12Z...AND NNW 10-20 KTS BY
27/00Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A
SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEEPER CONVECTION
ACROSS NEVADA WHICH EXTENDS TO JUST NORTH OF THE IDAHO/NEVADA
BORDER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SPLIT /A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON/ WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES TO THE S-SE AND
WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS AFTER
SUNSET BUT COULD LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA /GENERALLY EAST OF A MCCALL-TWIN FALLS LINE/ THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH/WESTERN
COLORADO WILL ENHANCE THE W-NW WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED WINDY CORRIDOR FROM MOUNTAIN
HOME TO TWIN FALLS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR GUSTS
TO 45 MPH FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE PACNW. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE
NORMAL ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND STARTING MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR 80F IN THE LOWER VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD...OR AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND
COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE MUCH
STRONGER WITH THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY BUT SINCE THEY ARE AT THE
BOTTOM OF THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONABLE VALUES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 260237
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
837 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND DECREASING SHOWERS. NO
UPDATES NEEDED. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWED AN AREA OF SHOWERS
FROM PARTS OF MALHEUR...CANYON AND OWYHEE COUNTIES TO THE NW AND
SE. THE HRRR RADAR DEPICTION HAD THIS...AS WELL AS SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEST CENTRAL ID MTNS...WHICH SHOULD DECAY BY MIDNIGHT.
LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED OVER CENTRAL MALHEUR COUNTY AND AS OF 823PM
THE STRONGEST CELL CAPABLE OF LIGHTNING APPEARED EAST OF DUCK
VALLEY MOVING INTO NV. CLOSER TO THE NRN LOW CENTER THERE WAS MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTION /NEAR THE BLUE MTNS/ WHILE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS
WERE MOSTLY EAST OF OUR AREA. COULD SEE A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER
ACROSS E VALLEY COUNTY OR S TWIN FALLS COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CHANCES ARE SLIM...AS MENTIONED EARLIER. WIND GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY COULD APPROACH 45 MPH THROUGH 930 OR 10
PM...WITH WINDS REBUILDING SUNDAY TO 25-40 MPH ACROSS WINDIER
AREAS /KMUO/ BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST ON TRACK
FOR NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH AREAS OF LOW VFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS. SHOWERS
WILL DIE OUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING...LINGERING A LITTLE
LONGER OVER THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SURFACE
WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY...GENERALLY 10-20 KTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS IN
SHOWERS...BECOMING STRONGER UP TO 35 KTS ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
IN THE MORNING. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...NW 15-15
KTS...BECOMING NNW 20-30 KTS BY 26/12Z...AND NNW 10-20 KTS BY
27/00Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A
SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEEPER CONVECTION
ACROSS NEVADA WHICH EXTENDS TO JUST NORTH OF THE IDAHO/NEVADA
BORDER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SPLIT /A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON/ WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES TO THE S-SE AND
WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS AFTER
SUNSET BUT COULD LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA /GENERALLY EAST OF A MCCALL-TWIN FALLS LINE/ THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH/WESTERN
COLORADO WILL ENHANCE THE W-NW WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED WINDY CORRIDOR FROM MOUNTAIN
HOME TO TWIN FALLS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR GUSTS
TO 45 MPH FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE PACNW. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE
NORMAL ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND STARTING MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR 80F IN THE LOWER VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD...OR AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND
COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE MUCH
STRONGER WITH THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY BUT SINCE THEY ARE AT THE
BOTTOM OF THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONABLE VALUES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 260237
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
837 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND DECREASING SHOWERS. NO
UPDATES NEEDED. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWED AN AREA OF SHOWERS
FROM PARTS OF MALHEUR...CANYON AND OWYHEE COUNTIES TO THE NW AND
SE. THE HRRR RADAR DEPICTION HAD THIS...AS WELL AS SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEST CENTRAL ID MTNS...WHICH SHOULD DECAY BY MIDNIGHT.
LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED OVER CENTRAL MALHEUR COUNTY AND AS OF 823PM
THE STRONGEST CELL CAPABLE OF LIGHTNING APPEARED EAST OF DUCK
VALLEY MOVING INTO NV. CLOSER TO THE NRN LOW CENTER THERE WAS MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTION /NEAR THE BLUE MTNS/ WHILE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS
WERE MOSTLY EAST OF OUR AREA. COULD SEE A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER
ACROSS E VALLEY COUNTY OR S TWIN FALLS COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CHANCES ARE SLIM...AS MENTIONED EARLIER. WIND GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY COULD APPROACH 45 MPH THROUGH 930 OR 10
PM...WITH WINDS REBUILDING SUNDAY TO 25-40 MPH ACROSS WINDIER
AREAS /KMUO/ BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST ON TRACK
FOR NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH AREAS OF LOW VFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS. SHOWERS
WILL DIE OUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING...LINGERING A LITTLE
LONGER OVER THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SURFACE
WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY...GENERALLY 10-20 KTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS IN
SHOWERS...BECOMING STRONGER UP TO 35 KTS ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
IN THE MORNING. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...NW 15-15
KTS...BECOMING NNW 20-30 KTS BY 26/12Z...AND NNW 10-20 KTS BY
27/00Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A
SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEEPER CONVECTION
ACROSS NEVADA WHICH EXTENDS TO JUST NORTH OF THE IDAHO/NEVADA
BORDER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SPLIT /A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON/ WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES TO THE S-SE AND
WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS AFTER
SUNSET BUT COULD LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA /GENERALLY EAST OF A MCCALL-TWIN FALLS LINE/ THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH/WESTERN
COLORADO WILL ENHANCE THE W-NW WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED WINDY CORRIDOR FROM MOUNTAIN
HOME TO TWIN FALLS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR GUSTS
TO 45 MPH FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE PACNW. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE
NORMAL ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND STARTING MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR 80F IN THE LOWER VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD...OR AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND
COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE MUCH
STRONGER WITH THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY BUT SINCE THEY ARE AT THE
BOTTOM OF THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONABLE VALUES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA/WH



000
FXUS66 KPDT 252233 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
332 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME AREAS BUT OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COLD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS WHERE GROWING SEASON IS
UNDERWAY. THUS A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME ZONES.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMMENCE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING BACK A SPRING WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK FRONT TO ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO COOL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND POPS WILL BE LOW. IT WILL BE
WINDY IN SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AND  KITTITAS VALLEY. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES OVER WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN RECENT
RUNS BUT DETAILS HAVE VARIED AS IS COMMON IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
THEREFORE I HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THAN NORMAL.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...0Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS WHEN CIGS LOWER TO MVFR UNTIL
03Z DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VARYING
BASES BETWEEN 3500-15000 FEET AGL CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...
HEN CLEARING WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD INCREASING TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10-20 KNOTS THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO 0-8 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  60  40  70 /  20   0   0   0
ALW  40  63  44  73 /  30   0   0   0
PSC  38  66  42  75 /  20   0   0   0
YKM  32  65  41  73 /  20   0   0  10
HRI  36  65  40  75 /  20   0   0   0
ELN  32  65  39  73 /  20   0  10  10
RDM  24  63  33  77 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  33  58  37  69 /  30   0   0   0
GCD  32  60  37  75 /  40   0   0   0
DLS  39  69  43  79 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ510.

WA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WAZ026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/76/76



000
FXUS66 KPDT 252233 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
332 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME AREAS BUT OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COLD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS WHERE GROWING SEASON IS
UNDERWAY. THUS A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME ZONES.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMMENCE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING BACK A SPRING WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK FRONT TO ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO COOL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND POPS WILL BE LOW. IT WILL BE
WINDY IN SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AND  KITTITAS VALLEY. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES OVER WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN RECENT
RUNS BUT DETAILS HAVE VARIED AS IS COMMON IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
THEREFORE I HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THAN NORMAL.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...0Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS WHEN CIGS LOWER TO MVFR UNTIL
03Z DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VARYING
BASES BETWEEN 3500-15000 FEET AGL CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...
HEN CLEARING WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD INCREASING TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10-20 KNOTS THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO 0-8 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  60  40  70 /  20   0   0   0
ALW  40  63  44  73 /  30   0   0   0
PSC  38  66  42  75 /  20   0   0   0
YKM  32  65  41  73 /  20   0   0  10
HRI  36  65  40  75 /  20   0   0   0
ELN  32  65  39  73 /  20   0  10  10
RDM  24  63  33  77 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  33  58  37  69 /  30   0   0   0
GCD  32  60  37  75 /  40   0   0   0
DLS  39  69  43  79 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ510.

WA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WAZ026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/76/76




000
FXUS66 KPQR 252135
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
234 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AND MOVE EAST BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A SWIFT END TO
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT WILL MAINLY CLIP THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREAS WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE DRIER AND
MUCH WARMER AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING RAIN EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES NEAR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CONVECTION HAS BEEN LESS
THAN STELLAR IN STRENGTH THUS FAR TODAY. COVERAGE HAS MET
EXPECTATIONS THOUGH WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH VALLEY
PRODUCING A QUICK TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS.
AM NOT READY TO COMPLETELY GIVE UP ON A THUNDER THREAT FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT HAVE CERTAINLY LOST MOST OF THE EXCITEMENT BUILT OVER
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE LEADING
UPPER EDGE OF THE ENCROACHING WARM FRONT ABOUT TO CROSS THE MOUTH OF
THE COLUMBIA. THIS IS FURTHER INDICATION THAT MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
IS BECOMING DOMINANT. AS SUCH...STILL EXPECT SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR ADDED CONFIDENCE...THE SPC STORM SCALE
ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY MEMBERS BACK THIS NOTION UP AND GENERALLY
CEASE ALL SHOWERS EVEN OVER THE CASCADES BY ABOUT 8 PM.

THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT APPEAR TO STAY
OFFSHORE ENOUGH TO GIVE DECENT CLEARING FOR A LARGE PART OF THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE REST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND INCLUDING THE COAST. FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT WERE ALREADY CLOSE TO THE DEW POINTS SO
DIDN`T SEE A NEED TO LOWER THE LOWS.

SUNDAY WILL STAY DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE CWA AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHUNT THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT EVER SO GRADUALLY FURTHER NORTH.
STILL MAINTAINED AROUND A 30 PCT POP FOR THE COAST RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND ABOUT A 60 PCT FOR THE NORTH COAST SUNDAY EVENING BUT
FEEL LIKE THIS IS A CASE WHERE ITS BETTER TO SAY THERE IS A 70 PCT
AND 40 PCT CHANCE RESPECTIVELY IT WILL NOT RAIN TOMORROW. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF FOLLOWING SHIFTS LOWER POPS YET FURTHER BASED ON
LATER MODEL RUNS. CLEARING SKIES WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BE FAIRLY TRANSITORY WITH
SEVERAL MODELS IN ROUGH AGREEMENT NOW SHOWING A TROUGH PUSHING DOWN
THE RIDGE WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE COAST
BY 12Z/5AM TUESDAY. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT AMPLITUDE IN THE
DOWNSTREAM H500 PATTERN IMPLIES THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR TO OUR
EAST TO SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE. THE PARENT LOW CENTER OF
THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND QUICKLY
SWING THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ABOVE 8000 FEET AND ONLY
DROP TOWARD 6000 FEET OR SO JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEY DO DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY TO AROUND 3500 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THERE WILL BE
LITTLE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT CASCADE SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THE
OVERALL DRIER AIR MASS. /JBONK

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME SHOWERS MAY
LINGER EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT THESE WILL BE
CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE CASCADES BEFORE COMING TO AN END BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
MARKED BY A MEAN RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A MEAN TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WEST. IN GENERAL...THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BUT SIGNIFICANT VARIATION AMONG OPERATIONAL
FORECAST MODELS...AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...KEEPS THE CONFIDENCE
IN THE PARTICULARS OF THE FORECAST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO POPS...DRYING OUT THE
COAST AND VALLEYS FOR WEDNESDAY BUT MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GEFS MEAN
AND ECMWF QPF FORECASTS SEEM TO SUPPORT ENHANCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...THOUGH PERHAPS FOR DIFFERENT REASONS /TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
VS. FRONTAL PASSAGE/. NONETHELESS...THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND
WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND STILL CREATE SOME CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
TREND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...COOL UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES. SHOWERS DECREASING
THIS EVENING...THEN SHOULD BE DRY AS AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING...AND COOL AIR MASS WITH WET
GROUND...WILL SEE PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG AND IFR STRATUS FORM
LATER TONIGHT. NEXT FRONT OFFSHORE WILL ARRIVE LATER SUN...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN AM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CLOUDS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMING AROUND
THE OPS AREA AFT 08Z...ESPECIALLY TO W AND N OF KPDX. WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL IFR CLOUDS INTO SUN AM...BUT NOT CONFIDENT YET ON HOW
LONG THESE PERSIST DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND SUN AM.                                    ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE. W TO NW WINDS UNDER 15 KT WITH
SEAS 5 TO 7 FT TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE N ACROSS THE WATERS SUN.
WILL HAVE PERIOD OF GUSTY S WINDS SUN AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS N AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT ENOUGH TO POP GUSTS TO 25 KT. WILL ISSUE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ON ALL WATERS FOR SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL
PUSH BACK UP A BIT...BUT REMAIN BELOW 10 FT.

ANOTHER BREAK IS EXPECTED ON MON BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES MON
NIGHT OR TUE. FRONT DOES NOT CURRENTLY LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
IN THE FCST MODELS...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS IS CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED. FCST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED.                     ROCKPYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS ON ALL WATERS FOR SUN AFTERNOON
        THROUGH SUN EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 252135
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
234 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AND MOVE EAST BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A SWIFT END TO
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT WILL MAINLY CLIP THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREAS WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE DRIER AND
MUCH WARMER AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING RAIN EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES NEAR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CONVECTION HAS BEEN LESS
THAN STELLAR IN STRENGTH THUS FAR TODAY. COVERAGE HAS MET
EXPECTATIONS THOUGH WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH VALLEY
PRODUCING A QUICK TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS.
AM NOT READY TO COMPLETELY GIVE UP ON A THUNDER THREAT FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT HAVE CERTAINLY LOST MOST OF THE EXCITEMENT BUILT OVER
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE LEADING
UPPER EDGE OF THE ENCROACHING WARM FRONT ABOUT TO CROSS THE MOUTH OF
THE COLUMBIA. THIS IS FURTHER INDICATION THAT MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
IS BECOMING DOMINANT. AS SUCH...STILL EXPECT SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR ADDED CONFIDENCE...THE SPC STORM SCALE
ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY MEMBERS BACK THIS NOTION UP AND GENERALLY
CEASE ALL SHOWERS EVEN OVER THE CASCADES BY ABOUT 8 PM.

THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT APPEAR TO STAY
OFFSHORE ENOUGH TO GIVE DECENT CLEARING FOR A LARGE PART OF THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE REST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND INCLUDING THE COAST. FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT WERE ALREADY CLOSE TO THE DEW POINTS SO
DIDN`T SEE A NEED TO LOWER THE LOWS.

SUNDAY WILL STAY DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE CWA AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHUNT THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT EVER SO GRADUALLY FURTHER NORTH.
STILL MAINTAINED AROUND A 30 PCT POP FOR THE COAST RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND ABOUT A 60 PCT FOR THE NORTH COAST SUNDAY EVENING BUT
FEEL LIKE THIS IS A CASE WHERE ITS BETTER TO SAY THERE IS A 70 PCT
AND 40 PCT CHANCE RESPECTIVELY IT WILL NOT RAIN TOMORROW. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF FOLLOWING SHIFTS LOWER POPS YET FURTHER BASED ON
LATER MODEL RUNS. CLEARING SKIES WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BE FAIRLY TRANSITORY WITH
SEVERAL MODELS IN ROUGH AGREEMENT NOW SHOWING A TROUGH PUSHING DOWN
THE RIDGE WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE COAST
BY 12Z/5AM TUESDAY. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT AMPLITUDE IN THE
DOWNSTREAM H500 PATTERN IMPLIES THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR TO OUR
EAST TO SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE. THE PARENT LOW CENTER OF
THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND QUICKLY
SWING THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ABOVE 8000 FEET AND ONLY
DROP TOWARD 6000 FEET OR SO JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEY DO DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY TO AROUND 3500 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THERE WILL BE
LITTLE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT CASCADE SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THE
OVERALL DRIER AIR MASS. /JBONK

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME SHOWERS MAY
LINGER EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT THESE WILL BE
CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE CASCADES BEFORE COMING TO AN END BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
MARKED BY A MEAN RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A MEAN TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WEST. IN GENERAL...THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BUT SIGNIFICANT VARIATION AMONG OPERATIONAL
FORECAST MODELS...AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...KEEPS THE CONFIDENCE
IN THE PARTICULARS OF THE FORECAST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO POPS...DRYING OUT THE
COAST AND VALLEYS FOR WEDNESDAY BUT MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GEFS MEAN
AND ECMWF QPF FORECASTS SEEM TO SUPPORT ENHANCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...THOUGH PERHAPS FOR DIFFERENT REASONS /TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
VS. FRONTAL PASSAGE/. NONETHELESS...THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND
WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND STILL CREATE SOME CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
TREND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...COOL UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES. SHOWERS DECREASING
THIS EVENING...THEN SHOULD BE DRY AS AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING...AND COOL AIR MASS WITH WET
GROUND...WILL SEE PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG AND IFR STRATUS FORM
LATER TONIGHT. NEXT FRONT OFFSHORE WILL ARRIVE LATER SUN...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN AM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CLOUDS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMING AROUND
THE OPS AREA AFT 08Z...ESPECIALLY TO W AND N OF KPDX. WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL IFR CLOUDS INTO SUN AM...BUT NOT CONFIDENT YET ON HOW
LONG THESE PERSIST DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND SUN AM.                                    ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE. W TO NW WINDS UNDER 15 KT WITH
SEAS 5 TO 7 FT TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE N ACROSS THE WATERS SUN.
WILL HAVE PERIOD OF GUSTY S WINDS SUN AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS N AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT ENOUGH TO POP GUSTS TO 25 KT. WILL ISSUE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ON ALL WATERS FOR SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL
PUSH BACK UP A BIT...BUT REMAIN BELOW 10 FT.

ANOTHER BREAK IS EXPECTED ON MON BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES MON
NIGHT OR TUE. FRONT DOES NOT CURRENTLY LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
IN THE FCST MODELS...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS IS CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED. FCST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED.                     ROCKPYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS ON ALL WATERS FOR SUN AFTERNOON
        THROUGH SUN EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 252121
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
220 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME AREAS BUT OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COLD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS WHERE GROWING SEASON IS
UNDERWAY. THUS A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME ZONES.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMMENCE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING BACK A SPRING WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK FRONT TO ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO COOL.




.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND POPS WILL BE LOW. IT WILL BE
WINDY IN SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AND  KITTITAS VALLEY. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES OVER WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN RECENT
RUNS BUT DETAILS HAVE VARIED AS IS COMMON IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
THEREFORE I HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THAN NORMAL.  COONFIELD


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS WHEN CIGS LOWER TO MVFR TODAY
DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VARYING
BASES BETWEEN 3500-15000 FEET AGL CAN BE EXPECTED.  WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 2-8 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. COONFIELD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  60  40  70 /  20   0   0   0
ALW  40  63  44  73 /  30   0   0   0
PSC  38  66  42  75 /  20   0   0   0
YKM  32  65  41  73 /  20   0   0  10
HRI  36  65  40  75 /  20   0   0   0
ELN  32  65  39  73 /  20   0  10  10
RDM  24  63  33  77 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  33  58  37  69 /  30   0   0   0
GCD  32  60  37  75 /  40   0   0   0
DLS  39  69  43  79 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ510.

WA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WAZ026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/76/76



000
FXUS66 KPDT 252121
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
220 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME AREAS BUT OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COLD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS WHERE GROWING SEASON IS
UNDERWAY. THUS A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME ZONES.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMMENCE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING BACK A SPRING WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK FRONT TO ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO COOL.




.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND POPS WILL BE LOW. IT WILL BE
WINDY IN SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AND  KITTITAS VALLEY. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES OVER WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN RECENT
RUNS BUT DETAILS HAVE VARIED AS IS COMMON IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
THEREFORE I HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THAN NORMAL.  COONFIELD


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS WHEN CIGS LOWER TO MVFR TODAY
DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VARYING
BASES BETWEEN 3500-15000 FEET AGL CAN BE EXPECTED.  WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 2-8 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. COONFIELD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  60  40  70 /  20   0   0   0
ALW  40  63  44  73 /  30   0   0   0
PSC  38  66  42  75 /  20   0   0   0
YKM  32  65  41  73 /  20   0   0  10
HRI  36  65  40  75 /  20   0   0   0
ELN  32  65  39  73 /  20   0  10  10
RDM  24  63  33  77 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  33  58  37  69 /  30   0   0   0
GCD  32  60  37  75 /  40   0   0   0
DLS  39  69  43  79 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ510.

WA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WAZ026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/76/76




000
FXUS65 KBOI 252044
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A
SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEEPER CONVECTION
ACROSS NEVADA WHICH EXTENDS TO JUST NORTH OF THE IDAHO/NEVADA
BORDER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SPLIT /A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON/ WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES TO THE S-SE AND
WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS AFTER
SUNSET BUT COULD LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA /GENERALLY EAST OF A MCCALL-TWIN FALLS LINE/ THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH/WESTERN
COLORADO WILL ENHANCE THE W-NW WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED WINDY CORRIDOR FROM MOUNTAIN
HOME TO TWIN FALLS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR GUSTS
TO 45 MPH FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE PACNW. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE
NORMAL ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND STARTING MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR 80F IN THE LOWER VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD...OR AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND
COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE MUCH
STRONGER WITH THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY BUT SINCE THEY ARE AT THE
BOTTOM OF THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONABLE VALUES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR. SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.
SURFACE WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR SHOWERS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...NW
15- 25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA/WH
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 252044
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A
SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEEPER CONVECTION
ACROSS NEVADA WHICH EXTENDS TO JUST NORTH OF THE IDAHO/NEVADA
BORDER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SPLIT /A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON/ WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES TO THE S-SE AND
WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS AFTER
SUNSET BUT COULD LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA /GENERALLY EAST OF A MCCALL-TWIN FALLS LINE/ THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH/WESTERN
COLORADO WILL ENHANCE THE W-NW WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED WINDY CORRIDOR FROM MOUNTAIN
HOME TO TWIN FALLS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR GUSTS
TO 45 MPH FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE PACNW. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE
NORMAL ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND STARTING MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR 80F IN THE LOWER VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD...OR AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND
COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE MUCH
STRONGER WITH THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY BUT SINCE THEY ARE AT THE
BOTTOM OF THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONABLE VALUES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR. SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.
SURFACE WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR SHOWERS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...NW
15- 25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA/WH
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 252044
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A
SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEEPER CONVECTION
ACROSS NEVADA WHICH EXTENDS TO JUST NORTH OF THE IDAHO/NEVADA
BORDER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SPLIT /A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON/ WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES TO THE S-SE AND
WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS AFTER
SUNSET BUT COULD LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA /GENERALLY EAST OF A MCCALL-TWIN FALLS LINE/ THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH/WESTERN
COLORADO WILL ENHANCE THE W-NW WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED WINDY CORRIDOR FROM MOUNTAIN
HOME TO TWIN FALLS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR GUSTS
TO 45 MPH FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE PACNW. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE
NORMAL ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND STARTING MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR 80F IN THE LOWER VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD...OR AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND
COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE MUCH
STRONGER WITH THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY BUT SINCE THEY ARE AT THE
BOTTOM OF THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONABLE VALUES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR. SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.
SURFACE WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR SHOWERS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...NW
15- 25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA/WH
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 252044
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A
SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEEPER CONVECTION
ACROSS NEVADA WHICH EXTENDS TO JUST NORTH OF THE IDAHO/NEVADA
BORDER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SPLIT /A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON/ WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES TO THE S-SE AND
WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS AFTER
SUNSET BUT COULD LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA /GENERALLY EAST OF A MCCALL-TWIN FALLS LINE/ THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH/WESTERN
COLORADO WILL ENHANCE THE W-NW WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED WINDY CORRIDOR FROM MOUNTAIN
HOME TO TWIN FALLS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR GUSTS
TO 45 MPH FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE PACNW. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE
NORMAL ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND STARTING MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR 80F IN THE LOWER VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD...OR AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND
COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE MUCH
STRONGER WITH THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY BUT SINCE THEY ARE AT THE
BOTTOM OF THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONABLE VALUES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR. SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.
SURFACE WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR SHOWERS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...NW
15- 25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA/WH
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS66 KMFR 252005
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
105 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...25/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ALIGNED ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...AND SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ONE WAVE IS COMING IN NOW...AND SHOWERS ARE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THERE MAY EVEN BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT THAT APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

ONCE THAT WAVE MOVES OUT THIS EVENING...A STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST. AFTER A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A STRETCH OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND OVER THE WEST SIDE
MONDAY...AND THAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY FOR THAT AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST SIDE TUESDAY AND THAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY THERE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BE WEAK AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE
TUESDAY MORNING. IT WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT ONSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST AND
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FARTHER INLAND. THE 25/12Z GFS SOLUTION
MOVED THE TIMING UP RATHER THAN DELAYING IT AS HAS BEEN THE TREND
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THOUGHT THIS TREND WOULD CONTINUE AND
IT MAY YET...BUT FOR NOW IT LINES UP WELL WITH THE EC SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR TO THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO
PRESS INTO THE COASTAL AREA BY LATE IN THE TERM AS THE NEXT
WEAK SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT SATURDAY, APR 25, 2015...GENERALLY
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...SWITCHING WINDS TO SOUTHERLY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
A THERMAL TROUGH THEN EXPANDS NORTH TO AROUND CAPE BLANCO.

ANOTHER TRAIN OF WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND SLOWLY
RISE TO NEAR 10 FEET BY WEDNESDAY.

IN THE LONG-TERM...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE THERMAL TROUGH
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT ONCE ESTABLISHED
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/11/08




000
FXUS66 KMFR 252005
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
105 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...25/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ALIGNED ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...AND SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ONE WAVE IS COMING IN NOW...AND SHOWERS ARE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THERE MAY EVEN BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT THAT APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

ONCE THAT WAVE MOVES OUT THIS EVENING...A STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST. AFTER A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A STRETCH OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND OVER THE WEST SIDE
MONDAY...AND THAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY FOR THAT AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST SIDE TUESDAY AND THAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY THERE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BE WEAK AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE
TUESDAY MORNING. IT WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT ONSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST AND
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FARTHER INLAND. THE 25/12Z GFS SOLUTION
MOVED THE TIMING UP RATHER THAN DELAYING IT AS HAS BEEN THE TREND
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THOUGHT THIS TREND WOULD CONTINUE AND
IT MAY YET...BUT FOR NOW IT LINES UP WELL WITH THE EC SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR TO THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO
PRESS INTO THE COASTAL AREA BY LATE IN THE TERM AS THE NEXT
WEAK SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT SATURDAY, APR 25, 2015...GENERALLY
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...SWITCHING WINDS TO SOUTHERLY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
A THERMAL TROUGH THEN EXPANDS NORTH TO AROUND CAPE BLANCO.

ANOTHER TRAIN OF WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND SLOWLY
RISE TO NEAR 10 FEET BY WEDNESDAY.

IN THE LONG-TERM...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE THERMAL TROUGH
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT ONCE ESTABLISHED
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/11/08



000
FXUS66 KPDT 251743 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1040 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED OVER
VANCOUVER ISLAND IS ON THE MOVE DROPPING SOUTH AND SHIFTING TO THE
EAST OVER TIME. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. COULD EVEN SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS BEING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. THE LOW
WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN
END AFTER SUNSET. CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S. HAVE ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR
LOCATIONS WHERE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS WHEN CIGS LOWER TO MVFR TODAY
DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VARYING
BASES BETWEEN 3500-15000 FEET AGL CAN BE EXPECTED.  WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 2-8 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. COONFIELD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015/

..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL START OUT EARLY IN THE DAY AS AN UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A MORE STABLE AND COOLER
FLOW WHICH WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. IN ANY EVENT THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES WITH SOME
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
WHERE IT WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE CWA. THE DEVELOPING UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
TODAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY MONDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL JUST HAVE
LIGHT WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10-15 MPH. 88

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL FORCE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...INCREASING A SW FLOW ALOFT.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS WA/OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS HAS A MORE DEFINED WAVE
EXTENDING SOUTH AS FAR AS SOUTHERN OREGON...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY NORTH AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND POPS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THIS TIME.  IT WILL
BE WINDY IN SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY...NAMELY THE EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.  A STRONGER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.  ONCE
AGAIN...THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN. THE PATTERN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS WOULD INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.  WILL KEEP 20-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME AND HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.
WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  56  36  58  41 /  30  20   0   0
ALW  59  40  60  45 /  30  20   0   0
PSC  62  38  64  43 /  20  20   0   0
YKM  60  32  63  42 /  30  10  10  10
HRI  61  36  64  41 /  20  20   0   0
ELN  58  32  62  40 /  30  10   0  10
RDM  53  24  59  34 /  30  10  10   0
LGD  52  33  56  39 /  60  30  10   0
GCD  52  32  58  38 /  50  40  10   0
DLS  63  39  66  43 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ510.

WA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WAZ026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/76/76



000
FXUS66 KPDT 251743 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1040 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED OVER
VANCOUVER ISLAND IS ON THE MOVE DROPPING SOUTH AND SHIFTING TO THE
EAST OVER TIME. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. COULD EVEN SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS BEING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. THE LOW
WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN
END AFTER SUNSET. CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S. HAVE ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR
LOCATIONS WHERE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS WHEN CIGS LOWER TO MVFR TODAY
DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VARYING
BASES BETWEEN 3500-15000 FEET AGL CAN BE EXPECTED.  WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 2-8 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. COONFIELD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015/

..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL START OUT EARLY IN THE DAY AS AN UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A MORE STABLE AND COOLER
FLOW WHICH WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. IN ANY EVENT THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES WITH SOME
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
WHERE IT WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE CWA. THE DEVELOPING UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
TODAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY MONDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL JUST HAVE
LIGHT WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10-15 MPH. 88

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL FORCE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...INCREASING A SW FLOW ALOFT.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS WA/OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS HAS A MORE DEFINED WAVE
EXTENDING SOUTH AS FAR AS SOUTHERN OREGON...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY NORTH AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND POPS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THIS TIME.  IT WILL
BE WINDY IN SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY...NAMELY THE EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.  A STRONGER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.  ONCE
AGAIN...THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN. THE PATTERN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS WOULD INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.  WILL KEEP 20-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME AND HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.
WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  56  36  58  41 /  30  20   0   0
ALW  59  40  60  45 /  30  20   0   0
PSC  62  38  64  43 /  20  20   0   0
YKM  60  32  63  42 /  30  10  10  10
HRI  61  36  64  41 /  20  20   0   0
ELN  58  32  62  40 /  30  10   0  10
RDM  53  24  59  34 /  30  10  10   0
LGD  52  33  56  39 /  60  30  10   0
GCD  52  32  58  38 /  50  40  10   0
DLS  63  39  66  43 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ510.

WA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WAZ026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/76/76




000
FXUS66 KPQR 251619
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
919 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SNOW LEVEL OF 3000 TO 4000 FEET. ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING A SWIFT END TO ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT MAY CLIP THE REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. MONDAY WILL
BE DRIER AND MUCH WARMER AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTH. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY...WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE MORNING UPDATE
PACKAGE. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG SO ADDED THAT
IN FOR THE MORNING. SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS ITS MAINLY
GROUND FOG AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO GET IT TO DISSIPATE.
WAS DEBATING WHETHER TO COVERT THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION OVER TO A
COVERAGE WORDING BUT THE 12Z NAM AND GFS RUNS ARE IN AND ARE SHOWING
LESS COOLING ALOFT AS THE FINAL COLD AIR LOBE ROTATES ACROSS THE
REGION. DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE UNCERTAINTY SIDE AS SOME SHALLOW
CUMULUS IS ALREADY STARTING TO BUILD OVER PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE
WHICH HAVE CLEARED EARLIER. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...COULD GET A RAPID
UPDRAFT TO BUILD WITH THOSE SUN BREAKS AND ESPECIALLY AS VALLEY
INVERSIONS BREAK THIS MORNING. THE UPDRAFTS WILL ALSO GET A BIT OF
LIFT ENHANCEMENT AS THE 100 KT JET SLIDES OVER THE TOP OF US AROUND
MID-DAY. THOSE QUICK UPDRAFTS MIGHT GET JUST ENOUGH CLOUD CHARGE
SEPARATION TO PRODUCT A FEW ONE OR TWO RUMBLE WONDERS. THOSE
LIGHTNING DISCHARGES WOULD MOST LIKELY STAY IN CLOUD BUT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKE EITHER. ALSO DECIDED TO
PULL OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE EARLY EVENING AS MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE WILL RAPIDLY SQUASH ANY THREAT OF DEEP CONVECTION AND
ALSO BELIEVE THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL HAVE BEEN WELL TURNED
OVER AND MIXED BY ABOUT 6 PM TODAY.

UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /JBONK

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES INLAND. EXPECT PRIMARILY
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST...WITH PERIODIC BRIEF MVFR CIGS DURING
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR STRATUS AND FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS AND
BAYS UNTIL 17Z. WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND SMALL HAIL...CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST AND
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ALONG
THE COAST AFTER 22Z...AND OVER THE INTERIOR AFTER 00Z. HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS TONIGHT INTO SUN AM...ALLOWING PATCHY FOG/STRATUS TO
FORM LATE TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...POCKETS OF IFR STRATUS AROUND OPS AREA
UNTIL17Z THIS AM...MAINLY TO N AND E OF KPDX. OVERALL...WILL SEE VFR
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR UNDER SHOWERS. WILL KEEP
A LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN AREA BETWEEN 19Z
TO 02Z...BUT IF DOES MORE LIKELY TO BE EAST OF OPS AREAS OVER
CASCADES OR FOOTHILLS. ROCKEY.

&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE. COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY...WITH WINDS REMAINING UNDER 15 KT. THOUGH
COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT AROUND SHOWERS. SEAS HOLDING AT 5 TO
7 FT.

A WARM FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE N ACROSS THE WATERS SUN. THE
LATEST COMPUTER RUNS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE
WINDS...INDICATING THAT A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE LIKELY ON SUN ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS
SHOULD ALSO INCREASE A BIT IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS...BUT ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FT.

ANOTHER BREAK IS EXPECTED ON MON BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES MON
NIGHT OR TUE. FRONT DOES NOT CURRENTLY LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN
THE FCST MODELS...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS IS CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED. FCST CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.                     ROCKPYLE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO
SHOW SEVERAL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON THIS
MORNING...AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS COOL...MOIST AND UNSTABLE DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. ONE LAST LOBE OF COOL
AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY
TODAY...COMBINING WITH OCCASIONAL SUNSHINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER SPIKE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON.

WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -30 DEG C WITHIN THE COOL CORE ALOFT...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOMEWHAT DEEPER CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY. A FEW
STRAY CLAPS OF THUNDER WERE REPORTED FRIDAY...EVEN WITH MILDER AIR
ALOFT. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SALEM. WITH FREEZING LEVELS HOVERING IN
THE 4000-5000 FT RANGE...HEAVIER SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO HAVE AN EASY
TIME PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. SHEAR PROFILES LOOK WEAK AND CAPE IS
MINIMAL...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING TO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.

THE CASCADES HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...WITH AS
MUCH AS 6-8 INCHES BEING REPORTED AT TIMBERLINE SINCE THURSDAY. A
COUPLE MORE INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE FROM SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SPOTTY. SOME WET SNOW IS EXPECTED AT PASS
LEVEL...THOUGH THE STRONG APRIL SUN WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST SNOW OFF
THE ROADS BY MID-MORNING.

INSTABILITY WILL COME TO A QUICK END FROM TOP TO BOTTOM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS TEMPS WARM ALOFT AND COOL AT THE SURFACE
WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS SW WA/NW OR...BRINGING SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD BRING A SWIFT
END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING. SOME VALLEY FOG IS
POSSIBLE IF SKIES STAY CLEAR TONIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR FOG TO
BECOME TOO WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE FINALLY SHOWING SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL
BRUSH THE NORTH COAST WITH SOME RAIN WHILE MUCH OF THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND OREGON CASCADES REMAIN DRY. MUCH WARMER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL CAUSE A SHARP INCREASE IN TEMPS MONDAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
FCST TO BE IN THE +12 TO +14 DEG C RANGE...TEMPS INLAND COULD PUSH 80
DEGREES IN THE VALLEYS.  WEAGLE

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THOUGH THEY ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL IDEA OF PUSHING THE MEAN RIDGE
POSITION EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
PARKS OVER THE PAC NW. THERE REMAINS GREAT VARIATION BETWEEN
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS TO WHEN INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES WOULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN. INCREASED POPS A BIT
CONSIDERING THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH...BUT HELD THEM NEAR CLIMO
DUE TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS SHOULD COOL BACK DOWN TO WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL MIDWEEK...PERHAPS TRENDING BACK BELOW NORMAL
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 251619
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
919 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SNOW LEVEL OF 3000 TO 4000 FEET. ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING A SWIFT END TO ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT MAY CLIP THE REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. MONDAY WILL
BE DRIER AND MUCH WARMER AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTH. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY...WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE MORNING UPDATE
PACKAGE. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG SO ADDED THAT
IN FOR THE MORNING. SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS ITS MAINLY
GROUND FOG AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO GET IT TO DISSIPATE.
WAS DEBATING WHETHER TO COVERT THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION OVER TO A
COVERAGE WORDING BUT THE 12Z NAM AND GFS RUNS ARE IN AND ARE SHOWING
LESS COOLING ALOFT AS THE FINAL COLD AIR LOBE ROTATES ACROSS THE
REGION. DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE UNCERTAINTY SIDE AS SOME SHALLOW
CUMULUS IS ALREADY STARTING TO BUILD OVER PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE
WHICH HAVE CLEARED EARLIER. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...COULD GET A RAPID
UPDRAFT TO BUILD WITH THOSE SUN BREAKS AND ESPECIALLY AS VALLEY
INVERSIONS BREAK THIS MORNING. THE UPDRAFTS WILL ALSO GET A BIT OF
LIFT ENHANCEMENT AS THE 100 KT JET SLIDES OVER THE TOP OF US AROUND
MID-DAY. THOSE QUICK UPDRAFTS MIGHT GET JUST ENOUGH CLOUD CHARGE
SEPARATION TO PRODUCT A FEW ONE OR TWO RUMBLE WONDERS. THOSE
LIGHTNING DISCHARGES WOULD MOST LIKELY STAY IN CLOUD BUT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKE EITHER. ALSO DECIDED TO
PULL OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE EARLY EVENING AS MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE WILL RAPIDLY SQUASH ANY THREAT OF DEEP CONVECTION AND
ALSO BELIEVE THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL HAVE BEEN WELL TURNED
OVER AND MIXED BY ABOUT 6 PM TODAY.

UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /JBONK

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES INLAND. EXPECT PRIMARILY
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST...WITH PERIODIC BRIEF MVFR CIGS DURING
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR STRATUS AND FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS AND
BAYS UNTIL 17Z. WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND SMALL HAIL...CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST AND
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ALONG
THE COAST AFTER 22Z...AND OVER THE INTERIOR AFTER 00Z. HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS TONIGHT INTO SUN AM...ALLOWING PATCHY FOG/STRATUS TO
FORM LATE TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...POCKETS OF IFR STRATUS AROUND OPS AREA
UNTIL17Z THIS AM...MAINLY TO N AND E OF KPDX. OVERALL...WILL SEE VFR
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR UNDER SHOWERS. WILL KEEP
A LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN AREA BETWEEN 19Z
TO 02Z...BUT IF DOES MORE LIKELY TO BE EAST OF OPS AREAS OVER
CASCADES OR FOOTHILLS. ROCKEY.

&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE. COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY...WITH WINDS REMAINING UNDER 15 KT. THOUGH
COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT AROUND SHOWERS. SEAS HOLDING AT 5 TO
7 FT.

A WARM FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE N ACROSS THE WATERS SUN. THE
LATEST COMPUTER RUNS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE
WINDS...INDICATING THAT A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE LIKELY ON SUN ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS
SHOULD ALSO INCREASE A BIT IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS...BUT ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FT.

ANOTHER BREAK IS EXPECTED ON MON BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES MON
NIGHT OR TUE. FRONT DOES NOT CURRENTLY LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN
THE FCST MODELS...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS IS CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED. FCST CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.                     ROCKPYLE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO
SHOW SEVERAL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON THIS
MORNING...AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS COOL...MOIST AND UNSTABLE DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. ONE LAST LOBE OF COOL
AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY
TODAY...COMBINING WITH OCCASIONAL SUNSHINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER SPIKE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON.

WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -30 DEG C WITHIN THE COOL CORE ALOFT...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOMEWHAT DEEPER CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY. A FEW
STRAY CLAPS OF THUNDER WERE REPORTED FRIDAY...EVEN WITH MILDER AIR
ALOFT. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SALEM. WITH FREEZING LEVELS HOVERING IN
THE 4000-5000 FT RANGE...HEAVIER SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO HAVE AN EASY
TIME PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. SHEAR PROFILES LOOK WEAK AND CAPE IS
MINIMAL...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING TO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.

THE CASCADES HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...WITH AS
MUCH AS 6-8 INCHES BEING REPORTED AT TIMBERLINE SINCE THURSDAY. A
COUPLE MORE INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE FROM SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SPOTTY. SOME WET SNOW IS EXPECTED AT PASS
LEVEL...THOUGH THE STRONG APRIL SUN WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST SNOW OFF
THE ROADS BY MID-MORNING.

INSTABILITY WILL COME TO A QUICK END FROM TOP TO BOTTOM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS TEMPS WARM ALOFT AND COOL AT THE SURFACE
WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS SW WA/NW OR...BRINGING SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD BRING A SWIFT
END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING. SOME VALLEY FOG IS
POSSIBLE IF SKIES STAY CLEAR TONIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR FOG TO
BECOME TOO WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE FINALLY SHOWING SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL
BRUSH THE NORTH COAST WITH SOME RAIN WHILE MUCH OF THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND OREGON CASCADES REMAIN DRY. MUCH WARMER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL CAUSE A SHARP INCREASE IN TEMPS MONDAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
FCST TO BE IN THE +12 TO +14 DEG C RANGE...TEMPS INLAND COULD PUSH 80
DEGREES IN THE VALLEYS.  WEAGLE

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THOUGH THEY ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL IDEA OF PUSHING THE MEAN RIDGE
POSITION EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
PARKS OVER THE PAC NW. THERE REMAINS GREAT VARIATION BETWEEN
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS TO WHEN INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES WOULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN. INCREASED POPS A BIT
CONSIDERING THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH...BUT HELD THEM NEAR CLIMO
DUE TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS SHOULD COOL BACK DOWN TO WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL MIDWEEK...PERHAPS TRENDING BACK BELOW NORMAL
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 251600
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1000 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF A SPLIT...WITH THE
NORTHERN PORTION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND THE
SOUTHERN PORTION DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. OUR AREA WILL BE
IN BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED FOR LOWER POPS SINCE
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH IN NEVADA.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SURFACE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35KT NEAR SHOWERS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...VARIABLE 5-15KT BECOMING NW 15-25KT BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...A FEW SPRINKLES STILL PASSING THROUGH OUR CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING.  BUT THE MAIN TROUGH...CURRENTLY IN WRN WA/OR...IS
FORECAST TO DIG SEWD TODAY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND.  THE MAIN
PCPN IS FORECAST TO HIT NRN NEVADA WHILE LARGELY BYPASSING OUR CWA.
OUR ZONES NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER WILL GET RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SNOW
ABOVE 4500 FEET MSL...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE FEWER TO THE NORTH.
TROUGH WILL NARROW AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...AND IT WILL TAKE
UNTIL NOON SUNDAY TO FINALLY GET EAST OF OUR CWA.  TROUGH WILL
STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TONIGHT FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN IDAHO
MOUNTAINS BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT EAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.  WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES AWAY.  TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
MAX TEMPS WILL RISE ABOUT 5 DEGS IN IDAHO AND 10 DEGS IN OREGON
ZONES SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.

LONG TERM... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA
AND WEAKENING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THEY AGREE ON WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH
THEY DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES
OVER THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
INCREASING MODEL DIFFERENCES RESULT IN GREATER THAN AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.
&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 251600
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1000 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF A SPLIT...WITH THE
NORTHERN PORTION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND THE
SOUTHERN PORTION DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. OUR AREA WILL BE
IN BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED FOR LOWER POPS SINCE
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH IN NEVADA.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SURFACE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35KT NEAR SHOWERS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...VARIABLE 5-15KT BECOMING NW 15-25KT BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...A FEW SPRINKLES STILL PASSING THROUGH OUR CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING.  BUT THE MAIN TROUGH...CURRENTLY IN WRN WA/OR...IS
FORECAST TO DIG SEWD TODAY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND.  THE MAIN
PCPN IS FORECAST TO HIT NRN NEVADA WHILE LARGELY BYPASSING OUR CWA.
OUR ZONES NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER WILL GET RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SNOW
ABOVE 4500 FEET MSL...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE FEWER TO THE NORTH.
TROUGH WILL NARROW AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...AND IT WILL TAKE
UNTIL NOON SUNDAY TO FINALLY GET EAST OF OUR CWA.  TROUGH WILL
STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TONIGHT FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN IDAHO
MOUNTAINS BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT EAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.  WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES AWAY.  TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
MAX TEMPS WILL RISE ABOUT 5 DEGS IN IDAHO AND 10 DEGS IN OREGON
ZONES SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.

LONG TERM... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA
AND WEAKENING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THEY AGREE ON WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH
THEY DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES
OVER THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
INCREASING MODEL DIFFERENCES RESULT IN GREATER THAN AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.
&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT



000
FXUS66 KPDT 251537
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
835 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED OVER
VANCOUVER ISLAND IS ON THE MOVE DROPPING SOUTH AND SHIFTING TO THE
EAST OVER TIME. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. COULD EVEN SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS BEING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. THE LOW
WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN
END AFTER SUNSET. CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S. HAVE ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR
LOCATIONS WHERE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR FREEZING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015/

..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL START OUT EARLY IN THE DAY AS AN UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A MORE STABLE AND COOLER
FLOW WHICH WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. IN ANY EVENT THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES WITH SOME
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
WHERE IT WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE CWA. THE DEVELOPING UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
TODAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY MONDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL JUST HAVE
LIGHT WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10-15 MPH. 88

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL FORCE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...INCREASING A SW FLOW ALOFT.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS WA/OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS HAS A MORE DEFINED WAVE
EXTENDING SOUTH AS FAR AS SOUTHERN OREGON...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY NORTH AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND POPS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THIS TIME.  IT WILL
BE WINDY IN SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY...NAMELY THE EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.  A STRONGER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.  ONCE
AGAIN...THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN. THE PATTERN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS WOULD INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.  WILL KEEP 20-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME AND HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.
WISTER

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS WHEN CIGS LOWER TO MVFR TODAY
DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VARYING
BASES BETWEEN 3500-15000 FEET AGL CAN BE EXPECTED.  WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10-20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  56  36  58  41 /  30  20   0   0
ALW  59  40  60  45 /  30  20   0   0
PSC  62  38  64  43 /  20  20   0   0
YKM  60  32  63  42 /  30  10  10  10
HRI  61  36  64  41 /  20  20   0   0
ELN  58  32  62  40 /  30  10   0  10
RDM  53  24  59  34 /  30  10  10   0
LGD  52  33  56  39 /  60  30  10   0
GCD  52  32  58  38 /  50  40  10   0
DLS  63  39  66  43 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ510.

WA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WAZ026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/76/76




000
FXUS66 KPDT 251537
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
835 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED OVER
VANCOUVER ISLAND IS ON THE MOVE DROPPING SOUTH AND SHIFTING TO THE
EAST OVER TIME. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. COULD EVEN SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS BEING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. THE LOW
WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN
END AFTER SUNSET. CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S. HAVE ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR
LOCATIONS WHERE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR FREEZING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015/

..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL START OUT EARLY IN THE DAY AS AN UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A MORE STABLE AND COOLER
FLOW WHICH WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. IN ANY EVENT THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES WITH SOME
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
WHERE IT WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE CWA. THE DEVELOPING UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
TODAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY MONDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL JUST HAVE
LIGHT WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10-15 MPH. 88

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL FORCE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...INCREASING A SW FLOW ALOFT.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS WA/OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS HAS A MORE DEFINED WAVE
EXTENDING SOUTH AS FAR AS SOUTHERN OREGON...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY NORTH AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND POPS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THIS TIME.  IT WILL
BE WINDY IN SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY...NAMELY THE EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.  A STRONGER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.  ONCE
AGAIN...THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN. THE PATTERN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS WOULD INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.  WILL KEEP 20-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME AND HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.
WISTER

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS WHEN CIGS LOWER TO MVFR TODAY
DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VARYING
BASES BETWEEN 3500-15000 FEET AGL CAN BE EXPECTED.  WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10-20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  56  36  58  41 /  30  20   0   0
ALW  59  40  60  45 /  30  20   0   0
PSC  62  38  64  43 /  20  20   0   0
YKM  60  32  63  42 /  30  10  10  10
HRI  61  36  64  41 /  20  20   0   0
ELN  58  32  62  40 /  30  10   0  10
RDM  53  24  59  34 /  30  10  10   0
LGD  52  33  56  39 /  60  30  10   0
GCD  52  32  58  38 /  50  40  10   0
DLS  63  39  66  43 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ510.

WA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WAZ026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/76/76



000
FXUS66 KMFR 251500
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...25/12Z NAM IN.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ALIGNED ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...AND SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. NOT MUCH GOING ON AT THE MOMENT...BUT ONE MORE
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO START
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

ONCE THAT WAVE MOVES OUT THIS EVENING...A STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST. AFTER A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A STRETCH OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND OVER THE WEST SIDE
MONDAY...AND THAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY FOR THAT AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST SIDE TUESDAY AND THAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY THERE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BE WEAK AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE
TUESDAY MORNING (EC) OR EVENING (GFS). IT WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT
ONSHORE TUESDAY MORNING (EC) OR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
(GFS)...WHICH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST AND ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY FARTHER INLAND. THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN TRENDING
LATER WITH THIS FEATURE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE DUE TO SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES WHERE WIDESPREAD
VALLEY MVFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS COAST AND WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IT
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY, APR 25, 2015...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN LATER TODAY AND SEAS LOWER SOME. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...SWITCHING WINDS TO
SOUTHERLY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

IN THE LONG-TERM...A THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND INITIATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.  AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY SYSTEMS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS AS MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN STRENGTH
AND SPEED OF DISTURBANCES LATER IN THE WEEK. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/15



000
FXUS66 KMFR 251500
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...25/12Z NAM IN.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ALIGNED ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...AND SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. NOT MUCH GOING ON AT THE MOMENT...BUT ONE MORE
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO START
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

ONCE THAT WAVE MOVES OUT THIS EVENING...A STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST. AFTER A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A STRETCH OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND OVER THE WEST SIDE
MONDAY...AND THAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY FOR THAT AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST SIDE TUESDAY AND THAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY THERE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BE WEAK AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE
TUESDAY MORNING (EC) OR EVENING (GFS). IT WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT
ONSHORE TUESDAY MORNING (EC) OR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
(GFS)...WHICH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST AND ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY FARTHER INLAND. THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN TRENDING
LATER WITH THIS FEATURE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE DUE TO SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES WHERE WIDESPREAD
VALLEY MVFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS COAST AND WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IT
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY, APR 25, 2015...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN LATER TODAY AND SEAS LOWER SOME. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...SWITCHING WINDS TO
SOUTHERLY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

IN THE LONG-TERM...A THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND INITIATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.  AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY SYSTEMS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS AS MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN STRENGTH
AND SPEED OF DISTURBANCES LATER IN THE WEEK. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/15




000
FXUS66 KMFR 251500
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...25/12Z NAM IN.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ALIGNED ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...AND SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. NOT MUCH GOING ON AT THE MOMENT...BUT ONE MORE
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO START
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

ONCE THAT WAVE MOVES OUT THIS EVENING...A STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST. AFTER A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A STRETCH OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND OVER THE WEST SIDE
MONDAY...AND THAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY FOR THAT AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST SIDE TUESDAY AND THAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY THERE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BE WEAK AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE
TUESDAY MORNING (EC) OR EVENING (GFS). IT WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT
ONSHORE TUESDAY MORNING (EC) OR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
(GFS)...WHICH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST AND ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY FARTHER INLAND. THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN TRENDING
LATER WITH THIS FEATURE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE DUE TO SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES WHERE WIDESPREAD
VALLEY MVFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS COAST AND WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IT
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY, APR 25, 2015...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN LATER TODAY AND SEAS LOWER SOME. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...SWITCHING WINDS TO
SOUTHERLY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

IN THE LONG-TERM...A THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND INITIATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.  AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY SYSTEMS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS AS MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN STRENGTH
AND SPEED OF DISTURBANCES LATER IN THE WEEK. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/15



000
FXUS66 KMFR 251304
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
350 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE BEST JET DYNAMICS OF THE 135KT JET ARE
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BRINGING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
INTO THE SIERRAS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...THE WEAKER PORTION OF THE
LEFT JET DYNAMICS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH A COLD POOL MOVING INTO THE REGION. A COLD POOL WITH 500 MB
TEMPS BELOW -25C MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY. OVER THE WEST SIDE
SUBSIDENCE BRINGS A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 700 MB THAT SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE THAT HEIGHT OVER THE WEST
SIDE. THE FAR EAST SIDE IS AHEAD OF THIS SUBSIDENCE WITH MODELS
INDICATING LI`S LOWER THAN -1 AS THE RIGHT EXIT REGION MOVES
ACROSS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING JET
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING ONTO THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE DUE TO SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES WHERE WIDESPREAD
VALLEY MVFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS COAST AND WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IT
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY, APR 25, 2015...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN LATER TODAY AND SEAS LOWER SOME. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...SWITCHING WINDS TO
SOUTHERLY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

IN THE LONG-TERM...A THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND INITIATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.  AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY SYSTEMS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS AS MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN STRENGTH
AND SPEED OF DISTURBANCES LATER IN THE WEEK. SK


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 251304
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
350 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE BEST JET DYNAMICS OF THE 135KT JET ARE
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BRINGING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
INTO THE SIERRAS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...THE WEAKER PORTION OF THE
LEFT JET DYNAMICS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH A COLD POOL MOVING INTO THE REGION. A COLD POOL WITH 500 MB
TEMPS BELOW -25C MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY. OVER THE WEST SIDE
SUBSIDENCE BRINGS A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 700 MB THAT SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE THAT HEIGHT OVER THE WEST
SIDE. THE FAR EAST SIDE IS AHEAD OF THIS SUBSIDENCE WITH MODELS
INDICATING LI`S LOWER THAN -1 AS THE RIGHT EXIT REGION MOVES
ACROSS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING JET
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING ONTO THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE DUE TO SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES WHERE WIDESPREAD
VALLEY MVFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS COAST AND WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IT
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY, APR 25, 2015...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN LATER TODAY AND SEAS LOWER SOME. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...SWITCHING WINDS TO
SOUTHERLY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

IN THE LONG-TERM...A THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND INITIATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.  AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY SYSTEMS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS AS MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN STRENGTH
AND SPEED OF DISTURBANCES LATER IN THE WEEK. SK


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 251304
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
350 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE BEST JET DYNAMICS OF THE 135KT JET ARE
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BRINGING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
INTO THE SIERRAS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...THE WEAKER PORTION OF THE
LEFT JET DYNAMICS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH A COLD POOL MOVING INTO THE REGION. A COLD POOL WITH 500 MB
TEMPS BELOW -25C MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY. OVER THE WEST SIDE
SUBSIDENCE BRINGS A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 700 MB THAT SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE THAT HEIGHT OVER THE WEST
SIDE. THE FAR EAST SIDE IS AHEAD OF THIS SUBSIDENCE WITH MODELS
INDICATING LI`S LOWER THAN -1 AS THE RIGHT EXIT REGION MOVES
ACROSS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING JET
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING ONTO THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE DUE TO SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES WHERE WIDESPREAD
VALLEY MVFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS COAST AND WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IT
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY, APR 25, 2015...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN LATER TODAY AND SEAS LOWER SOME. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...SWITCHING WINDS TO
SOUTHERLY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

IN THE LONG-TERM...A THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND INITIATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.  AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY SYSTEMS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS AS MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN STRENGTH
AND SPEED OF DISTURBANCES LATER IN THE WEEK. SK


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 251304
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
350 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE BEST JET DYNAMICS OF THE 135KT JET ARE
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BRINGING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
INTO THE SIERRAS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...THE WEAKER PORTION OF THE
LEFT JET DYNAMICS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH A COLD POOL MOVING INTO THE REGION. A COLD POOL WITH 500 MB
TEMPS BELOW -25C MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY. OVER THE WEST SIDE
SUBSIDENCE BRINGS A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 700 MB THAT SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE THAT HEIGHT OVER THE WEST
SIDE. THE FAR EAST SIDE IS AHEAD OF THIS SUBSIDENCE WITH MODELS
INDICATING LI`S LOWER THAN -1 AS THE RIGHT EXIT REGION MOVES
ACROSS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING JET
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING ONTO THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE DUE TO SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES WHERE WIDESPREAD
VALLEY MVFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS COAST AND WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IT
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY, APR 25, 2015...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN LATER TODAY AND SEAS LOWER SOME. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...SWITCHING WINDS TO
SOUTHERLY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

IN THE LONG-TERM...A THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND INITIATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.  AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY SYSTEMS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS AS MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN STRENGTH
AND SPEED OF DISTURBANCES LATER IN THE WEEK. SK


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN



000
FXUS66 KPDT 251146 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
450 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL START OUT EARLY IN THE DAY AS AN UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A MORE STABLE AND COOLER
FLOW WHICH WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. IN ANY EVENT THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES WITH SOME
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
WHERE IT WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE CWA. THE DEVELOPING UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
TODAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY MONDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL JUST HAVE
LIGHT WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10-15 MPH. 88

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL FORCE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...INCREASING A SW FLOW ALOFT.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS WA/OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS HAS A MORE DEFINED WAVE
EXTENDING SOUTH AS FAR AS SOUTHERN OREGON...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY NORTH AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND POPS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THIS TIME.  IT WILL
BE WINDY IN SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY...NAMELY THE EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.  A STRONGER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.  ONCE
AGAIN...THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN. THE PATTERN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS WOULD INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.  WILL KEEP 20-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME AND HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.
WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS WHEN CIGS LOWER TO MVFR TODAY
DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VARYING
BASES BETWEEN 3500-15000 FEET AGL CAN BE EXPECTED.  WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10-20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  34  58  41 /  30  20   0   0
ALW  59  40  60  45 /  30  20   0   0
PSC  63  38  64  43 /  20  20   0   0
YKM  60  34  63  42 /  20  10  10  10
HRI  61  36  64  41 /  20  20   0   0
ELN  58  34  62  40 /  20  10   0  10
RDM  53  25  59  34 /  30  10  10   0
LGD  52  34  56  39 /  40  30  10   0
GCD  52  32  58  38 /  50  30  10   0
DLS  62  38  66  43 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85




000
FXUS66 KPDT 251146 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
450 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL START OUT EARLY IN THE DAY AS AN UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A MORE STABLE AND COOLER
FLOW WHICH WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. IN ANY EVENT THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES WITH SOME
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
WHERE IT WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE CWA. THE DEVELOPING UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
TODAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY MONDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL JUST HAVE
LIGHT WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10-15 MPH. 88

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL FORCE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...INCREASING A SW FLOW ALOFT.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS WA/OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS HAS A MORE DEFINED WAVE
EXTENDING SOUTH AS FAR AS SOUTHERN OREGON...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY NORTH AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND POPS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THIS TIME.  IT WILL
BE WINDY IN SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY...NAMELY THE EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.  A STRONGER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.  ONCE
AGAIN...THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN. THE PATTERN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS WOULD INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.  WILL KEEP 20-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME AND HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.
WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS WHEN CIGS LOWER TO MVFR TODAY
DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VARYING
BASES BETWEEN 3500-15000 FEET AGL CAN BE EXPECTED.  WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10-20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  34  58  41 /  30  20   0   0
ALW  59  40  60  45 /  30  20   0   0
PSC  63  38  64  43 /  20  20   0   0
YKM  60  34  63  42 /  20  10  10  10
HRI  61  36  64  41 /  20  20   0   0
ELN  58  34  62  40 /  20  10   0  10
RDM  53  25  59  34 /  30  10  10   0
LGD  52  34  56  39 /  40  30  10   0
GCD  52  32  58  38 /  50  30  10   0
DLS  62  38  66  43 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85



000
FXUS66 KMFR 251050
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
350 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE BEST JET DYNAMICS OF THE 135KT JET ARE
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BRINGING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
INTO THE SIERRAS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...THE WEAKER PORTION OF THE
LEFT JET DYNAMICS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH A COLD POOL MOVING INTO THE REGION. A COLD POOL WITH 500 MB
TEMPS BELOW -25C MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY. OVER THE WEST SIDE
SUBSIDENCE BRINGS A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 700 MB THAT SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE THAT HEIGHT OVER THE WEST
SIDE. THE FAR EAST SIDE IS AHEAD OF THIS SUBSIDENCE WITH MODELS
INDICATING LI`S LOWER THAN -1 AS THE RIGHT EXIT REGION MOVES
ACROSS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING JET
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING ONTO THE COAST TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO BE PARTIAL DUE TO
SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN
LAKE COUNTIES WHERE WIDESPREAD VALLEY MVFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH
TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS. A SURGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE WEST SIDE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND
FLOW SHIFTS FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS COAST AND WEST SIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL ALSO
BECOME BREEZY ACROSS ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY, APR 25, 2015...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN LATER TODAY AND SEAS LOWER SOME. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...SWITCHING WINDS TO
SOUTHERLY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

IN THE LONG-TERM...A THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND INITIATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.  AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY SYSTEMS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS AS MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN STRENGTH
AND SPEED OF DISTURBANCES LATER IN THE WEEK. SK


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 251050
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
350 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE BEST JET DYNAMICS OF THE 135KT JET ARE
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BRINGING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
INTO THE SIERRAS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...THE WEAKER PORTION OF THE
LEFT JET DYNAMICS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH A COLD POOL MOVING INTO THE REGION. A COLD POOL WITH 500 MB
TEMPS BELOW -25C MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY. OVER THE WEST SIDE
SUBSIDENCE BRINGS A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 700 MB THAT SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE THAT HEIGHT OVER THE WEST
SIDE. THE FAR EAST SIDE IS AHEAD OF THIS SUBSIDENCE WITH MODELS
INDICATING LI`S LOWER THAN -1 AS THE RIGHT EXIT REGION MOVES
ACROSS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING JET
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING ONTO THE COAST TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO BE PARTIAL DUE TO
SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN
LAKE COUNTIES WHERE WIDESPREAD VALLEY MVFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH
TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS. A SURGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE WEST SIDE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND
FLOW SHIFTS FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS COAST AND WEST SIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL ALSO
BECOME BREEZY ACROSS ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY, APR 25, 2015...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN LATER TODAY AND SEAS LOWER SOME. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...SWITCHING WINDS TO
SOUTHERLY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

IN THE LONG-TERM...A THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND INITIATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.  AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY SYSTEMS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS AS MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN STRENGTH
AND SPEED OF DISTURBANCES LATER IN THE WEEK. SK


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN




000
FXUS66 KPQR 251027
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
326 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST BY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGING A SWIFT END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT
MAY CLIP THE REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. MONDAY WILL BE DRIER AND MUCH WARMER AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...WITH MORE SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SETTLES NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO
SHOW SEVERAL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON THIS
MORNING...AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS COOL...MOIST AND UNSTABLE DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. ONE LAST LOBE OF COOL
AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY
TODAY...COMBINING WITH OCCASIONAL SUNSHINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER SPIKE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON.

WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -30 DEG C WITHIN THE COOL CORE ALOFT...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOMEWHAT DEEPER CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY. A FEW
STRAY CLAPS OF THUNDER WERE REPORTED FRIDAY...EVEN WITH MILDER AIR
ALOFT. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SALEM. WITH FREEZING LEVELS HOVERING IN
THE 4000-5000 FT RANGE...HEAVIER SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO HAVE AN EASY
TIME PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. SHEAR PROFILES LOOK WEAK AND CAPE IS
MINIMAL...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING TO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.

THE CASCADES HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...WITH AS
MUCH AS 6-8 INCHES BEING REPORTED AT TIMBERLINE SINCE THURSDAY. A
COUPLE MORE INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE FROM SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SPOTTY. SOME WET SNOW IS EXPECTED AT PASS
LEVEL...THOUGH THE STRONG APRIL SUN WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST SNOW OFF
THE ROADS BY MID-MORNING.

INSTABILITY WILL COME TO A QUICK END FROM TOP TO BOTTOM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS TEMPS WARM ALOFT AND COOL AT THE SURFACE
WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS SW WA/NW OR...BRINGING SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD BRING A SWIFT
END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING. SOME VALLEY FOG IS
POSSIBLE IF SKIES STAY CLEAR TONIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR FOG TO
BECOME TOO WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE FINALLY SHOWING SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL
BRUSH THE NORTH COAST WITH SOME RAIN WHILE MUCH OF THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND OREGON CASCADES REMAIN DRY. MUCH WARMER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL CAUSE A SHARP INCREASE IN TEMPS MONDAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
FCST TO BE IN THE +12 TO +14 DEG C RANGE...TEMPS INLAND COULD PUSH 80
DEGREES IN THE VALLEYS.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THOUGH THEY ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL IDEA OF PUSHING THE MEAN RIDGE
POSITION EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
PARKS OVER THE PAC NW. THERE REMAINS GREAT VARIATION BETWEEN
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS TO WHEN INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES WOULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN. INCREASED POPS A BIT
CONSIDERING THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH...BUT HELD THEM NEAR CLIMO
DUE TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS SHOULD COOL BACK DOWN TO WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL MIDWEEK...PERHAPS TRENDING BACK BELOW NORMAL
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES INLAND. EXPECT
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST...WITH PERIODIC BRIEF MVFR
CIGS DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND
TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
FURTHER EAST AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF ALONG THE COAST IN THE MID AFTERNOON AND OVER THE
INTERIOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUN MORNING...POSSIBLY ALLOWING PATCHY
FOG MAY TO DEVELOP TOWARD 12Z SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SHOWERS CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DURING
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE IS A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE
TERMINAL OR IN THE VICINITY BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE REMAINED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE ENP GUIDANCE
WAS SUGGESTING FOR THIS MORNING. THEY ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT 8
TO 10 FT. EXPECT THEM TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
DAY...EVENTUALLY REACHING 5 FT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING.

FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRES MOVES OVER THE WATERS AND THEN PUSHES INLAND. A WARM FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUN MORNING...THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE WINDS...INDICATING THAT A PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON SUN ESPECIALLY OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE A BIT IN RESPONSE TO
THE WINDS...BUT ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FT.

ANOTHER BREAK IS EXPECTED ON MON BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES MON
NIGHT OR TUE. THIS FRONT DOES NOT CURRENTLY LOOK ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN THE FCST MODELS...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IS CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED. FCST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO
MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 251027
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
326 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST BY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGING A SWIFT END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT
MAY CLIP THE REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. MONDAY WILL BE DRIER AND MUCH WARMER AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...WITH MORE SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SETTLES NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO
SHOW SEVERAL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON THIS
MORNING...AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS COOL...MOIST AND UNSTABLE DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. ONE LAST LOBE OF COOL
AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY
TODAY...COMBINING WITH OCCASIONAL SUNSHINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER SPIKE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON.

WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -30 DEG C WITHIN THE COOL CORE ALOFT...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOMEWHAT DEEPER CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY. A FEW
STRAY CLAPS OF THUNDER WERE REPORTED FRIDAY...EVEN WITH MILDER AIR
ALOFT. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SALEM. WITH FREEZING LEVELS HOVERING IN
THE 4000-5000 FT RANGE...HEAVIER SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO HAVE AN EASY
TIME PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. SHEAR PROFILES LOOK WEAK AND CAPE IS
MINIMAL...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING TO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.

THE CASCADES HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...WITH AS
MUCH AS 6-8 INCHES BEING REPORTED AT TIMBERLINE SINCE THURSDAY. A
COUPLE MORE INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE FROM SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SPOTTY. SOME WET SNOW IS EXPECTED AT PASS
LEVEL...THOUGH THE STRONG APRIL SUN WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST SNOW OFF
THE ROADS BY MID-MORNING.

INSTABILITY WILL COME TO A QUICK END FROM TOP TO BOTTOM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS TEMPS WARM ALOFT AND COOL AT THE SURFACE
WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS SW WA/NW OR...BRINGING SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD BRING A SWIFT
END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING. SOME VALLEY FOG IS
POSSIBLE IF SKIES STAY CLEAR TONIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR FOG TO
BECOME TOO WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE FINALLY SHOWING SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL
BRUSH THE NORTH COAST WITH SOME RAIN WHILE MUCH OF THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND OREGON CASCADES REMAIN DRY. MUCH WARMER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL CAUSE A SHARP INCREASE IN TEMPS MONDAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
FCST TO BE IN THE +12 TO +14 DEG C RANGE...TEMPS INLAND COULD PUSH 80
DEGREES IN THE VALLEYS.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THOUGH THEY ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL IDEA OF PUSHING THE MEAN RIDGE
POSITION EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
PARKS OVER THE PAC NW. THERE REMAINS GREAT VARIATION BETWEEN
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS TO WHEN INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES WOULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN. INCREASED POPS A BIT
CONSIDERING THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH...BUT HELD THEM NEAR CLIMO
DUE TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS SHOULD COOL BACK DOWN TO WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL MIDWEEK...PERHAPS TRENDING BACK BELOW NORMAL
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES INLAND. EXPECT
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST...WITH PERIODIC BRIEF MVFR
CIGS DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND
TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
FURTHER EAST AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF ALONG THE COAST IN THE MID AFTERNOON AND OVER THE
INTERIOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUN MORNING...POSSIBLY ALLOWING PATCHY
FOG MAY TO DEVELOP TOWARD 12Z SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SHOWERS CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DURING
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE IS A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE
TERMINAL OR IN THE VICINITY BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE REMAINED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE ENP GUIDANCE
WAS SUGGESTING FOR THIS MORNING. THEY ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT 8
TO 10 FT. EXPECT THEM TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
DAY...EVENTUALLY REACHING 5 FT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING.

FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRES MOVES OVER THE WATERS AND THEN PUSHES INLAND. A WARM FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUN MORNING...THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE WINDS...INDICATING THAT A PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON SUN ESPECIALLY OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE A BIT IN RESPONSE TO
THE WINDS...BUT ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FT.

ANOTHER BREAK IS EXPECTED ON MON BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES MON
NIGHT OR TUE. THIS FRONT DOES NOT CURRENTLY LOOK ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN THE FCST MODELS...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IS CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED. FCST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO
MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 251027
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
326 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST BY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGING A SWIFT END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT
MAY CLIP THE REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. MONDAY WILL BE DRIER AND MUCH WARMER AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...WITH MORE SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SETTLES NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO
SHOW SEVERAL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON THIS
MORNING...AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS COOL...MOIST AND UNSTABLE DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. ONE LAST LOBE OF COOL
AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY
TODAY...COMBINING WITH OCCASIONAL SUNSHINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER SPIKE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON.

WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -30 DEG C WITHIN THE COOL CORE ALOFT...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOMEWHAT DEEPER CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY. A FEW
STRAY CLAPS OF THUNDER WERE REPORTED FRIDAY...EVEN WITH MILDER AIR
ALOFT. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SALEM. WITH FREEZING LEVELS HOVERING IN
THE 4000-5000 FT RANGE...HEAVIER SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO HAVE AN EASY
TIME PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. SHEAR PROFILES LOOK WEAK AND CAPE IS
MINIMAL...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING TO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.

THE CASCADES HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...WITH AS
MUCH AS 6-8 INCHES BEING REPORTED AT TIMBERLINE SINCE THURSDAY. A
COUPLE MORE INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE FROM SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SPOTTY. SOME WET SNOW IS EXPECTED AT PASS
LEVEL...THOUGH THE STRONG APRIL SUN WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST SNOW OFF
THE ROADS BY MID-MORNING.

INSTABILITY WILL COME TO A QUICK END FROM TOP TO BOTTOM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS TEMPS WARM ALOFT AND COOL AT THE SURFACE
WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS SW WA/NW OR...BRINGING SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD BRING A SWIFT
END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING. SOME VALLEY FOG IS
POSSIBLE IF SKIES STAY CLEAR TONIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR FOG TO
BECOME TOO WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE FINALLY SHOWING SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL
BRUSH THE NORTH COAST WITH SOME RAIN WHILE MUCH OF THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND OREGON CASCADES REMAIN DRY. MUCH WARMER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL CAUSE A SHARP INCREASE IN TEMPS MONDAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
FCST TO BE IN THE +12 TO +14 DEG C RANGE...TEMPS INLAND COULD PUSH 80
DEGREES IN THE VALLEYS.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THOUGH THEY ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL IDEA OF PUSHING THE MEAN RIDGE
POSITION EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
PARKS OVER THE PAC NW. THERE REMAINS GREAT VARIATION BETWEEN
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS TO WHEN INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES WOULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN. INCREASED POPS A BIT
CONSIDERING THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH...BUT HELD THEM NEAR CLIMO
DUE TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS SHOULD COOL BACK DOWN TO WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL MIDWEEK...PERHAPS TRENDING BACK BELOW NORMAL
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES INLAND. EXPECT
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST...WITH PERIODIC BRIEF MVFR
CIGS DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND
TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
FURTHER EAST AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF ALONG THE COAST IN THE MID AFTERNOON AND OVER THE
INTERIOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUN MORNING...POSSIBLY ALLOWING PATCHY
FOG MAY TO DEVELOP TOWARD 12Z SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SHOWERS CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DURING
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE IS A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE
TERMINAL OR IN THE VICINITY BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE REMAINED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE ENP GUIDANCE
WAS SUGGESTING FOR THIS MORNING. THEY ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT 8
TO 10 FT. EXPECT THEM TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
DAY...EVENTUALLY REACHING 5 FT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING.

FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRES MOVES OVER THE WATERS AND THEN PUSHES INLAND. A WARM FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUN MORNING...THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE WINDS...INDICATING THAT A PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON SUN ESPECIALLY OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE A BIT IN RESPONSE TO
THE WINDS...BUT ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FT.

ANOTHER BREAK IS EXPECTED ON MON BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES MON
NIGHT OR TUE. THIS FRONT DOES NOT CURRENTLY LOOK ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN THE FCST MODELS...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IS CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED. FCST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO
MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 250927
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL START OUT EARLY IN THE DAY AS AN UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A MORE STABLE AND COOLER
FLOW WHICH WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. IN ANY EVENT THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES WITH SOME
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
WHERE IT WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE CWA. THE DEVELOPING UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
TODAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY MONDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL JUST HAVE
LIGHT WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10-15 MPH. 88

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL FORCE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...INCREASING A SW FLOW ALOFT.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS WA/OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS HAS A MORE DEFINED WAVE
EXTENDING SOUTH AS FAR AS SOUTHERN OREGON...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY NORTH AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND POPS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THIS TIME.  IT WILL
BE WINDY IN SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY...NAMELY THE EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.  A STRONGER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.  ONCE
AGAIN...THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN. THE PATTERN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS WOULD INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.  WILL KEEP 20-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME AND HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.
WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)....A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PACNW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS
LCL MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN AND NEAR SHOWERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  34  58  41 /  30  20   0   0
ALW  59  40  60  45 /  30  20   0   0
PSC  63  38  64  43 /  20  20   0   0
YKM  60  34  63  42 /  20  10  10  10
HRI  61  36  64  41 /  20  20   0   0
ELN  58  34  62  40 /  20  10   0  10
RDM  53  25  59  34 /  30  10  10   0
LGD  52  34  56  39 /  40  30  10   0
GCD  52  32  58  38 /  50  30  10   0
DLS  62  38  66  43 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85




000
FXUS66 KPDT 250927
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL START OUT EARLY IN THE DAY AS AN UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A MORE STABLE AND COOLER
FLOW WHICH WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. IN ANY EVENT THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES WITH SOME
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
WHERE IT WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE CWA. THE DEVELOPING UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
TODAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY MONDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL JUST HAVE
LIGHT WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10-15 MPH. 88

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL FORCE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...INCREASING A SW FLOW ALOFT.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS WA/OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS HAS A MORE DEFINED WAVE
EXTENDING SOUTH AS FAR AS SOUTHERN OREGON...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY NORTH AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND POPS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THIS TIME.  IT WILL
BE WINDY IN SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY...NAMELY THE EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.  A STRONGER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.  ONCE
AGAIN...THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN. THE PATTERN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS WOULD INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.  WILL KEEP 20-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME AND HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.
WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)....A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PACNW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS
LCL MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN AND NEAR SHOWERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  34  58  41 /  30  20   0   0
ALW  59  40  60  45 /  30  20   0   0
PSC  63  38  64  43 /  20  20   0   0
YKM  60  34  63  42 /  20  10  10  10
HRI  61  36  64  41 /  20  20   0   0
ELN  58  34  62  40 /  20  10   0  10
RDM  53  25  59  34 /  30  10  10   0
LGD  52  34  56  39 /  40  30  10   0
GCD  52  32  58  38 /  50  30  10   0
DLS  62  38  66  43 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85



000
FXUS66 KPDT 250927
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL START OUT EARLY IN THE DAY AS AN UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A MORE STABLE AND COOLER
FLOW WHICH WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. IN ANY EVENT THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES WITH SOME
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
WHERE IT WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE CWA. THE DEVELOPING UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
TODAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY MONDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL JUST HAVE
LIGHT WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10-15 MPH. 88

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL FORCE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...INCREASING A SW FLOW ALOFT.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS WA/OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS HAS A MORE DEFINED WAVE
EXTENDING SOUTH AS FAR AS SOUTHERN OREGON...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY NORTH AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND POPS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THIS TIME.  IT WILL
BE WINDY IN SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY...NAMELY THE EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.  A STRONGER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.  ONCE
AGAIN...THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN. THE PATTERN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS WOULD INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.  WILL KEEP 20-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME AND HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.
WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)....A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PACNW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS
LCL MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN AND NEAR SHOWERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  34  58  41 /  30  20   0   0
ALW  59  40  60  45 /  30  20   0   0
PSC  63  38  64  43 /  20  20   0   0
YKM  60  34  63  42 /  20  10  10  10
HRI  61  36  64  41 /  20  20   0   0
ELN  58  34  62  40 /  20  10   0  10
RDM  53  25  59  34 /  30  10  10   0
LGD  52  34  56  39 /  40  30  10   0
GCD  52  32  58  38 /  50  30  10   0
DLS  62  38  66  43 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85



000
FXUS66 KPDT 250926
AFDPDT

ZCZC WRKAFDPDT ALL
TTAA00 KWRK 250918

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL START OUT EARLY IN THE DAY AS AN UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A MORE STABLE AND COOLER
FLOW WHICH WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. IN ANY EVENT THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES WITH SOME
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
WHERE IT WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE CWA. THE DEVELOPING UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
TODAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY MONDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL JUST HAVE
LIGHT WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10-15 MPH. 88

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL FORCE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...INCREASING A SW FLOW ALOFT.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS WA/OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS HAS A MORE DEFINED WAVE
EXTENDING SOUTH AS FAR AS SOUTHERN OREGON...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY NORTH AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND POPS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THIS TIME.  IT WILL
BE WINDY IN SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY...NAMELY THE EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.  A STRONGER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.  ONCE
AGAIN...THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN. THE PATTERN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS WOULD INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.  WILL KEEP 20-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME AND HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.
WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)....A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PACNW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS
LCL MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN AND NEAR SHOWERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  34  58  41 /  30  20   0   0
ALW  59  40  60  45 /  30  20   0   0
PSC  63  38  64  43 /  20  20   0   0
YKM  60  34  63  42 /  20  10  10  10
HRI  61  36  64  41 /  20  20   0   0
ELN  58  34  62  40 /  20  10   0  10
RDM  53  25  59  34 /  30  10  10   0
LGD  52  34  56  39 /  40  30  10   0
GCD  52  32  58  38 /  50  30  10   0
DLS  62  38  66  43 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85



000
FXUS66 KPDT 250926
AFDPDT

ZCZC WRKAFDPDT ALL
TTAA00 KWRK 250918

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL START OUT EARLY IN THE DAY AS AN UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A MORE STABLE AND COOLER
FLOW WHICH WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. IN ANY EVENT THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES WITH SOME
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
WHERE IT WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE CWA. THE DEVELOPING UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
TODAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY MONDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL JUST HAVE
LIGHT WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10-15 MPH. 88

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL FORCE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...INCREASING A SW FLOW ALOFT.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS WA/OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS HAS A MORE DEFINED WAVE
EXTENDING SOUTH AS FAR AS SOUTHERN OREGON...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY NORTH AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND POPS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THIS TIME.  IT WILL
BE WINDY IN SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY...NAMELY THE EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.  A STRONGER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.  ONCE
AGAIN...THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN. THE PATTERN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS WOULD INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.  WILL KEEP 20-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME AND HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.
WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)....A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PACNW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS
LCL MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN AND NEAR SHOWERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  34  58  41 /  30  20   0   0
ALW  59  40  60  45 /  30  20   0   0
PSC  63  38  64  43 /  20  20   0   0
YKM  60  34  63  42 /  20  10  10  10
HRI  61  36  64  41 /  20  20   0   0
ELN  58  34  62  40 /  20  10   0  10
RDM  53  25  59  34 /  30  10  10   0
LGD  52  34  56  39 /  40  30  10   0
GCD  52  32  58  38 /  50  30  10   0
DLS  62  38  66  43 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85




000
FXUS66 KPDT 250926
AFDPDT

ZCZC WRKAFDPDT ALL
TTAA00 KWRK 250918

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL START OUT EARLY IN THE DAY AS AN UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A MORE STABLE AND COOLER
FLOW WHICH WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. IN ANY EVENT THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES WITH SOME
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
WHERE IT WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE CWA. THE DEVELOPING UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
TODAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY MONDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL JUST HAVE
LIGHT WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10-15 MPH. 88

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL FORCE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...INCREASING A SW FLOW ALOFT.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS WA/OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS HAS A MORE DEFINED WAVE
EXTENDING SOUTH AS FAR AS SOUTHERN OREGON...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY NORTH AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND POPS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THIS TIME.  IT WILL
BE WINDY IN SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY...NAMELY THE EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.  A STRONGER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.  ONCE
AGAIN...THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN. THE PATTERN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS WOULD INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.  WILL KEEP 20-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME AND HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.
WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)....A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PACNW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS
LCL MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN AND NEAR SHOWERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  34  58  41 /  30  20   0   0
ALW  59  40  60  45 /  30  20   0   0
PSC  63  38  64  43 /  20  20   0   0
YKM  60  34  63  42 /  20  10  10  10
HRI  61  36  64  41 /  20  20   0   0
ELN  58  34  62  40 /  20  10   0  10
RDM  53  25  59  34 /  30  10  10   0
LGD  52  34  56  39 /  40  30  10   0
GCD  52  32  58  38 /  50  30  10   0
DLS  62  38  66  43 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85




000
FXUS66 KPDT 250926
AFDPDT

ZCZC WRKAFDPDT ALL
TTAA00 KWRK 250918

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL START OUT EARLY IN THE DAY AS AN UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A MORE STABLE AND COOLER
FLOW WHICH WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. IN ANY EVENT THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES WITH SOME
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
WHERE IT WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE CWA. THE DEVELOPING UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
TODAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY MONDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL JUST HAVE
LIGHT WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10-15 MPH. 88

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL FORCE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...INCREASING A SW FLOW ALOFT.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS WA/OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS HAS A MORE DEFINED WAVE
EXTENDING SOUTH AS FAR AS SOUTHERN OREGON...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY NORTH AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND POPS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THIS TIME.  IT WILL
BE WINDY IN SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY...NAMELY THE EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.  A STRONGER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.  ONCE
AGAIN...THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN. THE PATTERN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS WOULD INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.  WILL KEEP 20-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME AND HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.
WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)....A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PACNW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS
LCL MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN AND NEAR SHOWERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  34  58  41 /  30  20   0   0
ALW  59  40  60  45 /  30  20   0   0
PSC  63  38  64  43 /  20  20   0   0
YKM  60  34  63  42 /  20  10  10  10
HRI  61  36  64  41 /  20  20   0   0
ELN  58  34  62  40 /  20  10   0  10
RDM  53  25  59  34 /  30  10  10   0
LGD  52  34  56  39 /  40  30  10   0
GCD  52  32  58  38 /  50  30  10   0
DLS  62  38  66  43 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85




000
FXUS66 KPDT 250926
AFDPDT

ZCZC WRKAFDPDT ALL
TTAA00 KWRK 250918

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL START OUT EARLY IN THE DAY AS AN UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A MORE STABLE AND COOLER
FLOW WHICH WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. IN ANY EVENT THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES WITH SOME
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
WHERE IT WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE CWA. THE DEVELOPING UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
TODAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY MONDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL JUST HAVE
LIGHT WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10-15 MPH. 88

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL FORCE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...INCREASING A SW FLOW ALOFT.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS WA/OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS HAS A MORE DEFINED WAVE
EXTENDING SOUTH AS FAR AS SOUTHERN OREGON...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY NORTH AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND POPS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THIS TIME.  IT WILL
BE WINDY IN SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY...NAMELY THE EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.  A STRONGER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.  ONCE
AGAIN...THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN. THE PATTERN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS WOULD INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.  WILL KEEP 20-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME AND HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.
WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)....A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PACNW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS
LCL MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN AND NEAR SHOWERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  34  58  41 /  30  20   0   0
ALW  59  40  60  45 /  30  20   0   0
PSC  63  38  64  43 /  20  20   0   0
YKM  60  34  63  42 /  20  10  10  10
HRI  61  36  64  41 /  20  20   0   0
ELN  58  34  62  40 /  20  10   0  10
RDM  53  25  59  34 /  30  10  10   0
LGD  52  34  56  39 /  40  30  10   0
GCD  52  32  58  38 /  50  30  10   0
DLS  62  38  66  43 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85




000
FXUS66 KPDT 250926
AFDPDT

ZCZC WRKAFDPDT ALL
TTAA00 KWRK 250918

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL START OUT EARLY IN THE DAY AS AN UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A MORE STABLE AND COOLER
FLOW WHICH WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. IN ANY EVENT THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES WITH SOME
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
WHERE IT WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE CWA. THE DEVELOPING UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
TODAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY MONDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL JUST HAVE
LIGHT WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10-15 MPH. 88

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL FORCE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...INCREASING A SW FLOW ALOFT.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS WA/OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS HAS A MORE DEFINED WAVE
EXTENDING SOUTH AS FAR AS SOUTHERN OREGON...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY NORTH AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND POPS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THIS TIME.  IT WILL
BE WINDY IN SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY...NAMELY THE EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.  A STRONGER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.  ONCE
AGAIN...THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN. THE PATTERN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS WOULD INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.  WILL KEEP 20-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME AND HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.
WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)....A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PACNW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS
LCL MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN AND NEAR SHOWERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  34  58  41 /  30  20   0   0
ALW  59  40  60  45 /  30  20   0   0
PSC  63  38  64  43 /  20  20   0   0
YKM  60  34  63  42 /  20  10  10  10
HRI  61  36  64  41 /  20  20   0   0
ELN  58  34  62  40 /  20  10   0  10
RDM  53  25  59  34 /  30  10  10   0
LGD  52  34  56  39 /  40  30  10   0
GCD  52  32  58  38 /  50  30  10   0
DLS  62  38  66  43 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85




000
FXUS65 KBOI 250850
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...A FEW SPRINKLES STILL PASSING THROUGH OUR CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING.  BUT THE MAIN TROUGH...CURRENTLY IN WRN WA/OR...IS
FORECAST TO DIG SEWD TODAY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND.  THE MAIN
PCPN IS FORECAST TO HIT NRN NEVADA WHILE LARGELY BYPASSING OUR CWA.
OUR ZONES NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER WILL GET RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SNOW
ABOVE 4500 FEET MSL...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE FEWER TO THE NORTH.
TROUGH WILL NARROW AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...AND IT WILL TAKE
UNTIL NOON SUNDAY TO FINALLY GET EAST OF OUR CWA.  TROUGH WILL
STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TONIGHT FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN IDAHO
MOUNTAINS BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT EAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.  WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES AWAY.  TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
MAX TEMPS WILL RISE ABOUT 5 DEGS IN IDAHO AND 10 DEGS IN OREGON
ZONES SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA
AND WEAKENING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THEY AGREE ON WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH
THEY DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES
OVER THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
INCREASING MODEL DIFFERENCES RESULT IN GREATER THAN AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IN IDAHO THIS
MORNING...EXPANDING TO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. LOCAL LOW VFR CEILINGS WITH
SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS 4K-5K FT MSL...EXCEPT NEAR 6K FT MSL ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER. SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AND ENDING
LOWER ELEVATIONS BY 06Z. SURFACE WINDS...NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS 10-20 KTS EXCEPT 15-25 KTS AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY SOUTHEAST OF KBOI.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 250850
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...A FEW SPRINKLES STILL PASSING THROUGH OUR CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING.  BUT THE MAIN TROUGH...CURRENTLY IN WRN WA/OR...IS
FORECAST TO DIG SEWD TODAY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND.  THE MAIN
PCPN IS FORECAST TO HIT NRN NEVADA WHILE LARGELY BYPASSING OUR CWA.
OUR ZONES NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER WILL GET RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SNOW
ABOVE 4500 FEET MSL...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE FEWER TO THE NORTH.
TROUGH WILL NARROW AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...AND IT WILL TAKE
UNTIL NOON SUNDAY TO FINALLY GET EAST OF OUR CWA.  TROUGH WILL
STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TONIGHT FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN IDAHO
MOUNTAINS BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT EAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.  WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES AWAY.  TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
MAX TEMPS WILL RISE ABOUT 5 DEGS IN IDAHO AND 10 DEGS IN OREGON
ZONES SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA
AND WEAKENING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THEY AGREE ON WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH
THEY DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES
OVER THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
INCREASING MODEL DIFFERENCES RESULT IN GREATER THAN AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IN IDAHO THIS
MORNING...EXPANDING TO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. LOCAL LOW VFR CEILINGS WITH
SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS 4K-5K FT MSL...EXCEPT NEAR 6K FT MSL ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER. SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AND ENDING
LOWER ELEVATIONS BY 06Z. SURFACE WINDS...NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS 10-20 KTS EXCEPT 15-25 KTS AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY SOUTHEAST OF KBOI.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 250850
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...A FEW SPRINKLES STILL PASSING THROUGH OUR CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING.  BUT THE MAIN TROUGH...CURRENTLY IN WRN WA/OR...IS
FORECAST TO DIG SEWD TODAY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND.  THE MAIN
PCPN IS FORECAST TO HIT NRN NEVADA WHILE LARGELY BYPASSING OUR CWA.
OUR ZONES NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER WILL GET RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SNOW
ABOVE 4500 FEET MSL...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE FEWER TO THE NORTH.
TROUGH WILL NARROW AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...AND IT WILL TAKE
UNTIL NOON SUNDAY TO FINALLY GET EAST OF OUR CWA.  TROUGH WILL
STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TONIGHT FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN IDAHO
MOUNTAINS BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT EAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.  WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES AWAY.  TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
MAX TEMPS WILL RISE ABOUT 5 DEGS IN IDAHO AND 10 DEGS IN OREGON
ZONES SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA
AND WEAKENING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THEY AGREE ON WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH
THEY DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES
OVER THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
INCREASING MODEL DIFFERENCES RESULT IN GREATER THAN AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IN IDAHO THIS
MORNING...EXPANDING TO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. LOCAL LOW VFR CEILINGS WITH
SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS 4K-5K FT MSL...EXCEPT NEAR 6K FT MSL ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER. SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AND ENDING
LOWER ELEVATIONS BY 06Z. SURFACE WINDS...NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS 10-20 KTS EXCEPT 15-25 KTS AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY SOUTHEAST OF KBOI.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 250850
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...A FEW SPRINKLES STILL PASSING THROUGH OUR CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING.  BUT THE MAIN TROUGH...CURRENTLY IN WRN WA/OR...IS
FORECAST TO DIG SEWD TODAY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND.  THE MAIN
PCPN IS FORECAST TO HIT NRN NEVADA WHILE LARGELY BYPASSING OUR CWA.
OUR ZONES NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER WILL GET RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SNOW
ABOVE 4500 FEET MSL...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE FEWER TO THE NORTH.
TROUGH WILL NARROW AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...AND IT WILL TAKE
UNTIL NOON SUNDAY TO FINALLY GET EAST OF OUR CWA.  TROUGH WILL
STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TONIGHT FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN IDAHO
MOUNTAINS BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT EAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.  WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES AWAY.  TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
MAX TEMPS WILL RISE ABOUT 5 DEGS IN IDAHO AND 10 DEGS IN OREGON
ZONES SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA
AND WEAKENING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THEY AGREE ON WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH
THEY DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES
OVER THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
INCREASING MODEL DIFFERENCES RESULT IN GREATER THAN AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IN IDAHO THIS
MORNING...EXPANDING TO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. LOCAL LOW VFR CEILINGS WITH
SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS 4K-5K FT MSL...EXCEPT NEAR 6K FT MSL ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER. SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AND ENDING
LOWER ELEVATIONS BY 06Z. SURFACE WINDS...NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS 10-20 KTS EXCEPT 15-25 KTS AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY SOUTHEAST OF KBOI.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS66 KMFR 250552
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1051 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE SHOWER LOCATION AND
COVERAGE FOR THIS EVENING, ADJUST SNOW LEVELS DOWNWARD FOR
SATURDAY MORNING, AND TO INCREASE WEST SIDE SHOWER CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS, BRIEFLY AND LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
EARLIER, CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS THIS EVENING. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THESE CURRENTLY DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.

OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT
LEFT PORTION OF A 130+ KNOT JET STREAM MAXIMUM MOVES INTO AND
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE 500MB TEMPERATURES OVER MEDFORD
OF AROUND -22C UNDER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO FALL TO AROUND -25C
UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW BY MORNING. THUS, WE EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WILL WANE MAINLY
INTO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BULK OF
THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A WELCOMED 0.10" TO 0.30" OF WATER IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER
DROUGHT PARCHED MODOC AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS WILL BE MOSTLY 4500 FEET AND UP WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES
EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS
SNOW DOWN TO BETWEEN 3500 FEET TO 4000 FEET IN AND AROUND THE
CASCADES, TO INCLUDE THE KLAMATH FALLS AREA, SATURDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...24/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE MEDFORD CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER THOUGH. AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN
0.05 INCHES...WHERE ANYTHING HAS BEEN RECORDED AT ALL. ALL STATIONS
REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FROM THE CASCADES
WEST.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY DIRECTED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON STATE. THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER
THE MEDFORD CWA IS DUE TO WEAK SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS WHERE MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE. ONE MORE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SPLIT WITH ONE LOCAL MAXIMA
GRAZING THE DOUGLAS/LANE COUNTY BOUNDARY AND THE OTHER OVER
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING.

AFTER THAT A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST...
WHICH WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA.
MONDAY LOOKS DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS GENERALLY ABOVE
5760M.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE DEGRADES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, AS MODEL AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLES SHOW A
WIDENING ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS. THESE DIFFICULTIES APPEAR TO ARISE DUE
TO THE VARIOUS WAYS EACH MODELS IS ATTEMPTING TO HANDLE SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, AND ALSO HOW AND
WHEN A BAND OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
EVENTUALLY BEND AND DISTORT INTO DISCERNIBLE WAVES. THROUGH THE
NOISE, THERE IS A HINT OF AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL PATTERN,
BUT THERE IS LITTLE ELSE TO PROVIDE ANY CERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE DETAILS OF TIME AND PLACEMENT. HAVE OPTED FOR A VERY
GENERALIZED FORECAST, AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE MANY
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.

THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL OTHER
SHORTWAVES AND/OR TROUGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. IN BETWEEN EACH WAVE,
THERE SHOULD BE SHORT PERIODS OF RIDGING AND POSSIBLY OFFSHORE FLOW.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT SLIGHT TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE TERM, AND ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH DRY AND WARMER PERIODS INTERSPERSED
THROUGHOUT. EACH WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA, BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON FACTORS THAT ARE TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME RANGE. ANY PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT DO OCCUR ARE LIKELY TO BE
LACKING IN ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE... A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT. TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO BE PARTIAL DUE TO SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
OVER EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES WHERE
WIDESPREAD VALLEY MVFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH TOTAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS. A SURGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST
SIDE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND FLOW SHIFTS FROM
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS COAST
AND WEST SIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS
ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT FRIDAY, APR 24, 2015... SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS WINDS
BECOME NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE AREA SUNDAY, BUT GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LOW AS THE MODELS
ARE STILL DISAGREEING REGARDING THE TIMING OF A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH OUR WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BTL/15/BPN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 250552
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1051 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE SHOWER LOCATION AND
COVERAGE FOR THIS EVENING, ADJUST SNOW LEVELS DOWNWARD FOR
SATURDAY MORNING, AND TO INCREASE WEST SIDE SHOWER CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS, BRIEFLY AND LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
EARLIER, CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS THIS EVENING. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THESE CURRENTLY DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.

OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT
LEFT PORTION OF A 130+ KNOT JET STREAM MAXIMUM MOVES INTO AND
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE 500MB TEMPERATURES OVER MEDFORD
OF AROUND -22C UNDER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO FALL TO AROUND -25C
UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW BY MORNING. THUS, WE EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WILL WANE MAINLY
INTO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BULK OF
THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A WELCOMED 0.10" TO 0.30" OF WATER IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER
DROUGHT PARCHED MODOC AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS WILL BE MOSTLY 4500 FEET AND UP WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES
EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS
SNOW DOWN TO BETWEEN 3500 FEET TO 4000 FEET IN AND AROUND THE
CASCADES, TO INCLUDE THE KLAMATH FALLS AREA, SATURDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...24/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE MEDFORD CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER THOUGH. AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN
0.05 INCHES...WHERE ANYTHING HAS BEEN RECORDED AT ALL. ALL STATIONS
REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FROM THE CASCADES
WEST.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY DIRECTED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON STATE. THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER
THE MEDFORD CWA IS DUE TO WEAK SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS WHERE MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE. ONE MORE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SPLIT WITH ONE LOCAL MAXIMA
GRAZING THE DOUGLAS/LANE COUNTY BOUNDARY AND THE OTHER OVER
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING.

AFTER THAT A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST...
WHICH WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA.
MONDAY LOOKS DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS GENERALLY ABOVE
5760M.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE DEGRADES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, AS MODEL AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLES SHOW A
WIDENING ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS. THESE DIFFICULTIES APPEAR TO ARISE DUE
TO THE VARIOUS WAYS EACH MODELS IS ATTEMPTING TO HANDLE SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, AND ALSO HOW AND
WHEN A BAND OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
EVENTUALLY BEND AND DISTORT INTO DISCERNIBLE WAVES. THROUGH THE
NOISE, THERE IS A HINT OF AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL PATTERN,
BUT THERE IS LITTLE ELSE TO PROVIDE ANY CERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE DETAILS OF TIME AND PLACEMENT. HAVE OPTED FOR A VERY
GENERALIZED FORECAST, AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE MANY
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.

THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL OTHER
SHORTWAVES AND/OR TROUGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. IN BETWEEN EACH WAVE,
THERE SHOULD BE SHORT PERIODS OF RIDGING AND POSSIBLY OFFSHORE FLOW.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT SLIGHT TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE TERM, AND ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH DRY AND WARMER PERIODS INTERSPERSED
THROUGHOUT. EACH WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA, BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON FACTORS THAT ARE TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME RANGE. ANY PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT DO OCCUR ARE LIKELY TO BE
LACKING IN ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE... A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT. TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO BE PARTIAL DUE TO SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
OVER EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES WHERE
WIDESPREAD VALLEY MVFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH TOTAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS. A SURGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST
SIDE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND FLOW SHIFTS FROM
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS COAST
AND WEST SIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS
ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT FRIDAY, APR 24, 2015... SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS WINDS
BECOME NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE AREA SUNDAY, BUT GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LOW AS THE MODELS
ARE STILL DISAGREEING REGARDING THE TIMING OF A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH OUR WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BTL/15/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 250552
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1051 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE SHOWER LOCATION AND
COVERAGE FOR THIS EVENING, ADJUST SNOW LEVELS DOWNWARD FOR
SATURDAY MORNING, AND TO INCREASE WEST SIDE SHOWER CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS, BRIEFLY AND LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
EARLIER, CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS THIS EVENING. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THESE CURRENTLY DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.

OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT
LEFT PORTION OF A 130+ KNOT JET STREAM MAXIMUM MOVES INTO AND
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE 500MB TEMPERATURES OVER MEDFORD
OF AROUND -22C UNDER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO FALL TO AROUND -25C
UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW BY MORNING. THUS, WE EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WILL WANE MAINLY
INTO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BULK OF
THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A WELCOMED 0.10" TO 0.30" OF WATER IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER
DROUGHT PARCHED MODOC AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS WILL BE MOSTLY 4500 FEET AND UP WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES
EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS
SNOW DOWN TO BETWEEN 3500 FEET TO 4000 FEET IN AND AROUND THE
CASCADES, TO INCLUDE THE KLAMATH FALLS AREA, SATURDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...24/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE MEDFORD CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER THOUGH. AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN
0.05 INCHES...WHERE ANYTHING HAS BEEN RECORDED AT ALL. ALL STATIONS
REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FROM THE CASCADES
WEST.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY DIRECTED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON STATE. THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER
THE MEDFORD CWA IS DUE TO WEAK SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS WHERE MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE. ONE MORE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SPLIT WITH ONE LOCAL MAXIMA
GRAZING THE DOUGLAS/LANE COUNTY BOUNDARY AND THE OTHER OVER
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING.

AFTER THAT A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST...
WHICH WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA.
MONDAY LOOKS DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS GENERALLY ABOVE
5760M.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE DEGRADES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, AS MODEL AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLES SHOW A
WIDENING ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS. THESE DIFFICULTIES APPEAR TO ARISE DUE
TO THE VARIOUS WAYS EACH MODELS IS ATTEMPTING TO HANDLE SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, AND ALSO HOW AND
WHEN A BAND OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
EVENTUALLY BEND AND DISTORT INTO DISCERNIBLE WAVES. THROUGH THE
NOISE, THERE IS A HINT OF AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL PATTERN,
BUT THERE IS LITTLE ELSE TO PROVIDE ANY CERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE DETAILS OF TIME AND PLACEMENT. HAVE OPTED FOR A VERY
GENERALIZED FORECAST, AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE MANY
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.

THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL OTHER
SHORTWAVES AND/OR TROUGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. IN BETWEEN EACH WAVE,
THERE SHOULD BE SHORT PERIODS OF RIDGING AND POSSIBLY OFFSHORE FLOW.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT SLIGHT TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE TERM, AND ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH DRY AND WARMER PERIODS INTERSPERSED
THROUGHOUT. EACH WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA, BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON FACTORS THAT ARE TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME RANGE. ANY PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT DO OCCUR ARE LIKELY TO BE
LACKING IN ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE... A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT. TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO BE PARTIAL DUE TO SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
OVER EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES WHERE
WIDESPREAD VALLEY MVFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH TOTAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS. A SURGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST
SIDE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND FLOW SHIFTS FROM
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS COAST
AND WEST SIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS
ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT FRIDAY, APR 24, 2015... SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS WINDS
BECOME NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE AREA SUNDAY, BUT GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LOW AS THE MODELS
ARE STILL DISAGREEING REGARDING THE TIMING OF A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH OUR WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BTL/15/BPN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 250552
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1051 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE SHOWER LOCATION AND
COVERAGE FOR THIS EVENING, ADJUST SNOW LEVELS DOWNWARD FOR
SATURDAY MORNING, AND TO INCREASE WEST SIDE SHOWER CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS, BRIEFLY AND LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
EARLIER, CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS THIS EVENING. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THESE CURRENTLY DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.

OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT
LEFT PORTION OF A 130+ KNOT JET STREAM MAXIMUM MOVES INTO AND
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE 500MB TEMPERATURES OVER MEDFORD
OF AROUND -22C UNDER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO FALL TO AROUND -25C
UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW BY MORNING. THUS, WE EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WILL WANE MAINLY
INTO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BULK OF
THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A WELCOMED 0.10" TO 0.30" OF WATER IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER
DROUGHT PARCHED MODOC AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS WILL BE MOSTLY 4500 FEET AND UP WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES
EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS
SNOW DOWN TO BETWEEN 3500 FEET TO 4000 FEET IN AND AROUND THE
CASCADES, TO INCLUDE THE KLAMATH FALLS AREA, SATURDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...24/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE MEDFORD CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER THOUGH. AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN
0.05 INCHES...WHERE ANYTHING HAS BEEN RECORDED AT ALL. ALL STATIONS
REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FROM THE CASCADES
WEST.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY DIRECTED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON STATE. THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER
THE MEDFORD CWA IS DUE TO WEAK SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS WHERE MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE. ONE MORE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SPLIT WITH ONE LOCAL MAXIMA
GRAZING THE DOUGLAS/LANE COUNTY BOUNDARY AND THE OTHER OVER
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING.

AFTER THAT A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST...
WHICH WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA.
MONDAY LOOKS DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS GENERALLY ABOVE
5760M.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE DEGRADES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, AS MODEL AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLES SHOW A
WIDENING ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS. THESE DIFFICULTIES APPEAR TO ARISE DUE
TO THE VARIOUS WAYS EACH MODELS IS ATTEMPTING TO HANDLE SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, AND ALSO HOW AND
WHEN A BAND OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
EVENTUALLY BEND AND DISTORT INTO DISCERNIBLE WAVES. THROUGH THE
NOISE, THERE IS A HINT OF AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL PATTERN,
BUT THERE IS LITTLE ELSE TO PROVIDE ANY CERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE DETAILS OF TIME AND PLACEMENT. HAVE OPTED FOR A VERY
GENERALIZED FORECAST, AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE MANY
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.

THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL OTHER
SHORTWAVES AND/OR TROUGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. IN BETWEEN EACH WAVE,
THERE SHOULD BE SHORT PERIODS OF RIDGING AND POSSIBLY OFFSHORE FLOW.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT SLIGHT TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE TERM, AND ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH DRY AND WARMER PERIODS INTERSPERSED
THROUGHOUT. EACH WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA, BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON FACTORS THAT ARE TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME RANGE. ANY PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT DO OCCUR ARE LIKELY TO BE
LACKING IN ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE... A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT. TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO BE PARTIAL DUE TO SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
OVER EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES WHERE
WIDESPREAD VALLEY MVFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH TOTAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS. A SURGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST
SIDE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND FLOW SHIFTS FROM
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS COAST
AND WEST SIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS
ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT FRIDAY, APR 24, 2015... SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS WINDS
BECOME NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE AREA SUNDAY, BUT GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LOW AS THE MODELS
ARE STILL DISAGREEING REGARDING THE TIMING OF A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH OUR WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BTL/15/BPN




000
FXUS66 KPDT 250549 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1045 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACNW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOW TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE BALL PARK ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS IN THE EAST SUCH AS MEH
AND LGD WERE LOWERED A BIT. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACNW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS LCL MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES IN AND NEAR SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A
TROUGH PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CIRCULATING OVER VANCOUVER WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS IT DOES THERE WILL BE
INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
SATURDAY. THUS EXPECTING INCREASING SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AND EVEN
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM OFF THE PACIFIC
OCEAN. THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 60S AND 70S BY MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD...IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH UPPER 30S TO 40S MOUNTAINS.  BY TUESDAY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH UPPER 60S TO 70S
MOUNTAINS.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. EXPECT WEST WINDS TO PICK UP WITH THIS COLD FRONT.  RIGHT
NOW THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS PRETTY DRY...JUST HAVE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
MODELS DIVERGE A BIT FROM THIS POINT ON...AS GFS BRINGS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF OREGON...BUT WOULD SPIN UP MOISTURE TO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON...PROVIDING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.  ECMWF HAS MORE OF A DRY
SHORTWAVE PUSH ACROSS OREGON...LIMITING THE ACTIVITY TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHWOERS...WITH VERY LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  41  55  34  61 /  10  30  20   0
ALW  44  59  40  63 /  10  30  20   0
PSC  44  63  38  67 /  10  20  20   0
YKM  38  60  34  66 /  10  20  10  10
HRI  42  61  36  67 /  10  20  20   0
ELN  36  58  34  65 /  10  20  10   0
RDM  34  53  25  62 /  40  30  10  10
LGD  33  52  34  59 /  20  40  30  10
GCD  37  52  32  61 /  20  50  30  10
DLS  43  62  38  69 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97




000
FXUS66 KPDT 250549 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1045 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACNW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOW TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE BALL PARK ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS IN THE EAST SUCH AS MEH
AND LGD WERE LOWERED A BIT. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACNW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS LCL MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES IN AND NEAR SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A
TROUGH PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CIRCULATING OVER VANCOUVER WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS IT DOES THERE WILL BE
INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
SATURDAY. THUS EXPECTING INCREASING SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AND EVEN
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM OFF THE PACIFIC
OCEAN. THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 60S AND 70S BY MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD...IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH UPPER 30S TO 40S MOUNTAINS.  BY TUESDAY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH UPPER 60S TO 70S
MOUNTAINS.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. EXPECT WEST WINDS TO PICK UP WITH THIS COLD FRONT.  RIGHT
NOW THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS PRETTY DRY...JUST HAVE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
MODELS DIVERGE A BIT FROM THIS POINT ON...AS GFS BRINGS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF OREGON...BUT WOULD SPIN UP MOISTURE TO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON...PROVIDING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.  ECMWF HAS MORE OF A DRY
SHORTWAVE PUSH ACROSS OREGON...LIMITING THE ACTIVITY TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHWOERS...WITH VERY LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  41  55  34  61 /  10  30  20   0
ALW  44  59  40  63 /  10  30  20   0
PSC  44  63  38  67 /  10  20  20   0
YKM  38  60  34  66 /  10  20  10  10
HRI  42  61  36  67 /  10  20  20   0
ELN  36  58  34  65 /  10  20  10   0
RDM  34  53  25  62 /  40  30  10  10
LGD  33  52  34  59 /  20  40  30  10
GCD  37  52  32  61 /  20  50  30  10
DLS  43  62  38  69 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97



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