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000
FXUS66 KPDT 210528
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1025 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWING CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THURSDAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES. UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE COOL SIDE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE. LIGHTER
WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL. 94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SCT-BKN CIRRUS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS 5-15KT TONIGHT AND 10-20KT
THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FAIRLY DRY AND COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THURSDAY NIGHT A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH
AND FORM A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INLAND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
THEN LEAD TO INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO IDAHO ON SATURDAY
LEAVING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST AREA WILL
BE ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER IDAHO/MONTANA
SATURDAY EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, THE ELKHORN MOUNTAINS AND THE
WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. ON SUNDAY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
THERE WILL BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY THERE WILL A TAD MORE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING
SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. THEN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  81  52  78 /   0   0   0  20
ALW  58  81  56  79 /  10   0  10  20
PSC  55  84  56  81 /   0   0   0  20
YKM  51  80  51  78 /   0   0  10  30
HRI  55  84  54  81 /   0   0   0  20
ELN  53  80  51  77 /   0   0  10  40
RDM  40  75  42  71 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  47  78  47  73 /  10   0   0  30
GCD  45  77  45  72 /  10   0   0  10
DLS  55  80  56  79 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94





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000
FXUS66 KPQR 210351 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
851 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY COULD RESULT IN A SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES...AND A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK
COVERING MUCH OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON EARLIER
TODAY HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY DISSIPATED TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS
HAVE CLEAR SKIES AT CURRENT. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO REFORM ALONG THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS. BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE STRATUS WILL EXPAND ALONG MOST OF
THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS STRATUS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND BACK BUILD TO THE WEST. THESE TWO CLOUD DECKS
WILL LIKELY END UP FILLING MOST OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS BY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE MODERATE ONSHORE CONTINUING...EXPECT
SIMILAR DRIZZLE COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING COMPARED TO
EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE SW WA LOWLANDS... OREGON COAST...AND WEST
SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE SOME OF THE MORE FAVORED DRIZZLE AREAS.

EXPECT TOMORROW TO BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SIMILARLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG SOUTH TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING SHORT-WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE TROUGH BASE...AIDED BY A 80-100 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK. THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE
AREAS OF LIGHT QPF FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS. WOULD
EXPECT A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH POSSIBLY ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT
LEAST AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING IN THE
LOWLANDS AND POSSIBLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

THERE IS STILL SOME VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD
TO THE ACTUAL LOW TRACK BUT MODELS GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON CASCADES FRI AFTERNOON FOR A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AND TRY TO MOVE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RUN INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS
OVERALL ON TOP OF THE ALREADY STABLE LOW LEVEL MARINE INFLUENCED LOW
LEVELS. CYCLONIC JET FROM THE DEPARTING LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
CASCADE CREST TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE SAT...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING. PYLE/WEISHAAR


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SEEN AT 500 AND 850 MB. THIS WILL ONLY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES...AS
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED FROM NORTHERLY CONTINENTAL FLOW AND
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE DOWNWARD MOTION OVER THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF OUR AREA. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES UP AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING. MVFR
MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE SW WA/NW OR COAST WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH INLAND ALONG
THE COLUMBIA RIVER AFTER 06Z THU...GRADUALLY COMBINING WITH
STRATUS THAT WILL FORM AGAINST THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND FILL IN
MOST OF CLARK COUNTY AND THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AFTER 12Z
THU. CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND 2000 FT. FURTHER SOUTH...
MODELS KEEP MAJORITY OF THE STRATUS OUT SO MAY SEE SOME FOG/LOW
STRATUS FORM FROM 06-10Z THU...PARTICULARLY AT KONP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES EARLY TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2000 FT FROM 13Z-17Z THU SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT KPDX AND
EASTERN APPROACHES. BOWEN/27

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS SHOWING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AT 10 SECONDS BUT THERE`S
ALSO ENERGY AT 8 SECONDS SO SEAS WILL BE A BIT STEEP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NW WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KT. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED NW
WIND AND SWELL. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PACIFIC
STRENGTHENS A BIT WITH THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 210351 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
851 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY COULD RESULT IN A SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES...AND A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK
COVERING MUCH OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON EARLIER
TODAY HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY DISSIPATED TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS
HAVE CLEAR SKIES AT CURRENT. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO REFORM ALONG THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS. BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE STRATUS WILL EXPAND ALONG MOST OF
THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS STRATUS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND BACK BUILD TO THE WEST. THESE TWO CLOUD DECKS
WILL LIKELY END UP FILLING MOST OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS BY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE MODERATE ONSHORE CONTINUING...EXPECT
SIMILAR DRIZZLE COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING COMPARED TO
EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE SW WA LOWLANDS... OREGON COAST...AND WEST
SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE SOME OF THE MORE FAVORED DRIZZLE AREAS.

EXPECT TOMORROW TO BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SIMILARLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG SOUTH TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING SHORT-WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE TROUGH BASE...AIDED BY A 80-100 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK. THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE
AREAS OF LIGHT QPF FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS. WOULD
EXPECT A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH POSSIBLY ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT
LEAST AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING IN THE
LOWLANDS AND POSSIBLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

THERE IS STILL SOME VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD
TO THE ACTUAL LOW TRACK BUT MODELS GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON CASCADES FRI AFTERNOON FOR A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AND TRY TO MOVE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RUN INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS
OVERALL ON TOP OF THE ALREADY STABLE LOW LEVEL MARINE INFLUENCED LOW
LEVELS. CYCLONIC JET FROM THE DEPARTING LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
CASCADE CREST TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE SAT...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING. PYLE/WEISHAAR


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SEEN AT 500 AND 850 MB. THIS WILL ONLY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES...AS
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED FROM NORTHERLY CONTINENTAL FLOW AND
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE DOWNWARD MOTION OVER THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF OUR AREA. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES UP AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING. MVFR
MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE SW WA/NW OR COAST WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH INLAND ALONG
THE COLUMBIA RIVER AFTER 06Z THU...GRADUALLY COMBINING WITH
STRATUS THAT WILL FORM AGAINST THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND FILL IN
MOST OF CLARK COUNTY AND THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AFTER 12Z
THU. CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND 2000 FT. FURTHER SOUTH...
MODELS KEEP MAJORITY OF THE STRATUS OUT SO MAY SEE SOME FOG/LOW
STRATUS FORM FROM 06-10Z THU...PARTICULARLY AT KONP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES EARLY TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2000 FT FROM 13Z-17Z THU SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT KPDX AND
EASTERN APPROACHES. BOWEN/27

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS SHOWING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AT 10 SECONDS BUT THERE`S
ALSO ENERGY AT 8 SECONDS SO SEAS WILL BE A BIT STEEP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NW WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KT. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED NW
WIND AND SWELL. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PACIFIC
STRENGTHENS A BIT WITH THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 210351 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
851 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY COULD RESULT IN A SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES...AND A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK
COVERING MUCH OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON EARLIER
TODAY HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY DISSIPATED TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS
HAVE CLEAR SKIES AT CURRENT. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO REFORM ALONG THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS. BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE STRATUS WILL EXPAND ALONG MOST OF
THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS STRATUS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND BACK BUILD TO THE WEST. THESE TWO CLOUD DECKS
WILL LIKELY END UP FILLING MOST OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS BY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE MODERATE ONSHORE CONTINUING...EXPECT
SIMILAR DRIZZLE COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING COMPARED TO
EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE SW WA LOWLANDS... OREGON COAST...AND WEST
SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE SOME OF THE MORE FAVORED DRIZZLE AREAS.

EXPECT TOMORROW TO BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SIMILARLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG SOUTH TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING SHORT-WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE TROUGH BASE...AIDED BY A 80-100 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK. THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE
AREAS OF LIGHT QPF FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS. WOULD
EXPECT A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH POSSIBLY ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT
LEAST AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING IN THE
LOWLANDS AND POSSIBLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

THERE IS STILL SOME VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD
TO THE ACTUAL LOW TRACK BUT MODELS GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON CASCADES FRI AFTERNOON FOR A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AND TRY TO MOVE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RUN INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS
OVERALL ON TOP OF THE ALREADY STABLE LOW LEVEL MARINE INFLUENCED LOW
LEVELS. CYCLONIC JET FROM THE DEPARTING LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
CASCADE CREST TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE SAT...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING. PYLE/WEISHAAR


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SEEN AT 500 AND 850 MB. THIS WILL ONLY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES...AS
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED FROM NORTHERLY CONTINENTAL FLOW AND
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE DOWNWARD MOTION OVER THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF OUR AREA. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES UP AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING. MVFR
MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE SW WA/NW OR COAST WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH INLAND ALONG
THE COLUMBIA RIVER AFTER 06Z THU...GRADUALLY COMBINING WITH
STRATUS THAT WILL FORM AGAINST THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND FILL IN
MOST OF CLARK COUNTY AND THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AFTER 12Z
THU. CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND 2000 FT. FURTHER SOUTH...
MODELS KEEP MAJORITY OF THE STRATUS OUT SO MAY SEE SOME FOG/LOW
STRATUS FORM FROM 06-10Z THU...PARTICULARLY AT KONP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES EARLY TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2000 FT FROM 13Z-17Z THU SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT KPDX AND
EASTERN APPROACHES. BOWEN/27

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS SHOWING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AT 10 SECONDS BUT THERE`S
ALSO ENERGY AT 8 SECONDS SO SEAS WILL BE A BIT STEEP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NW WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KT. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED NW
WIND AND SWELL. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PACIFIC
STRENGTHENS A BIT WITH THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 210351 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
851 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY COULD RESULT IN A SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES...AND A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK
COVERING MUCH OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON EARLIER
TODAY HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY DISSIPATED TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS
HAVE CLEAR SKIES AT CURRENT. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO REFORM ALONG THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS. BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE STRATUS WILL EXPAND ALONG MOST OF
THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS STRATUS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND BACK BUILD TO THE WEST. THESE TWO CLOUD DECKS
WILL LIKELY END UP FILLING MOST OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS BY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE MODERATE ONSHORE CONTINUING...EXPECT
SIMILAR DRIZZLE COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING COMPARED TO
EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE SW WA LOWLANDS... OREGON COAST...AND WEST
SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE SOME OF THE MORE FAVORED DRIZZLE AREAS.

EXPECT TOMORROW TO BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SIMILARLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG SOUTH TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING SHORT-WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE TROUGH BASE...AIDED BY A 80-100 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK. THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE
AREAS OF LIGHT QPF FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS. WOULD
EXPECT A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH POSSIBLY ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT
LEAST AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING IN THE
LOWLANDS AND POSSIBLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

THERE IS STILL SOME VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD
TO THE ACTUAL LOW TRACK BUT MODELS GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON CASCADES FRI AFTERNOON FOR A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AND TRY TO MOVE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RUN INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS
OVERALL ON TOP OF THE ALREADY STABLE LOW LEVEL MARINE INFLUENCED LOW
LEVELS. CYCLONIC JET FROM THE DEPARTING LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
CASCADE CREST TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE SAT...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING. PYLE/WEISHAAR


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SEEN AT 500 AND 850 MB. THIS WILL ONLY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES...AS
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED FROM NORTHERLY CONTINENTAL FLOW AND
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE DOWNWARD MOTION OVER THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF OUR AREA. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES UP AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING. MVFR
MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE SW WA/NW OR COAST WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH INLAND ALONG
THE COLUMBIA RIVER AFTER 06Z THU...GRADUALLY COMBINING WITH
STRATUS THAT WILL FORM AGAINST THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND FILL IN
MOST OF CLARK COUNTY AND THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AFTER 12Z
THU. CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND 2000 FT. FURTHER SOUTH...
MODELS KEEP MAJORITY OF THE STRATUS OUT SO MAY SEE SOME FOG/LOW
STRATUS FORM FROM 06-10Z THU...PARTICULARLY AT KONP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES EARLY TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2000 FT FROM 13Z-17Z THU SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT KPDX AND
EASTERN APPROACHES. BOWEN/27

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS SHOWING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AT 10 SECONDS BUT THERE`S
ALSO ENERGY AT 8 SECONDS SO SEAS WILL BE A BIT STEEP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NW WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KT. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED NW
WIND AND SWELL. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PACIFIC
STRENGTHENS A BIT WITH THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMFR 210337
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
837 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE ANOTHER 5 DEGREES COOLER THIS
EVENING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...CONTINUING THE
COOLING TREND. A DRIER AIR MASS IS ALSO BEING OBSERVED COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...WTIH DEW POINTS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THIS EVENING. I
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS A BIT TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND
INTERESTINGLY THE COASTAL WATERS ARE VOID OF ANY MARINE STRATUS AT
THE MOMENT. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE STRATUS WILL FILL IN THIS
EVENING...AFFECTING THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO STRATUS
WON`T MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND AS LAST NIGHT...AND ROSEBURG SHOULD
STAY MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW...BY A FEW DEGREES...AND AFTERNOON GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GAIN MOMENTUM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS DUE TO A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN NEAR THE COAST...AND THAT
WILL LIKELY INVIGORATE EXISTING FIRE BEHAVIOR. PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON AN OTHERWISE RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE
COOS COAST (INCLUDING KOTH) AND COASTAL VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND
THEN BURN OFF TO VFR BY MID MORNING THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 220 PM PDT WED 20 AUG 2014...WITH OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND, LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. AN AREA OF NORTH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS OFFSHORE SOUTH OF
CAPE FERRELO WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO LATER FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. -WRIGHT


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPED TODAY WITH AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN TONIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS...EXCEPT FOR THE EXPECTED RETURN OF COASTAL STRATUS NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO. THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL.
BUT, SKIES THAT WERE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH LESS
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF WEST SIDE MORNING STRATUS AND THE LACK OF
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON THURSDAY THEN USHER IN ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER MARINE
AIR. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS,
BELOW AROUND 5000 FT MSL, WITH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA
VALLEY. I INTRODUCED A 10% PROBABILITY OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AT
THE COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY COAST ON FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE AREA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN OREGON. THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH WILL
KEEP OUR REGION ON THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN WITH THE TROUGH TRACKING EAST TO THE
ROCKIES WITH THE WEST COAST UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WHILE A STRONGER RIDGE LURKS FAR OFFSHORE WITH ITS AXIS
AROUND 145W. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A STRONG THERMAL TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST
WITH OFFSHORE WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WILL PRODUCE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN OF POOR
TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AT MID-SLOPES AND
RIDGES. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING AND
CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS
EARLY SATURDAY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WILL RESEMBLE WHAT OCCURS ON SATURDAY BUT
WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF HEATING AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE
MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES BUT ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE OF A DRY COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS AND A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN OUR AREA
ON MONDAY THEN THE RIDGE MOVING TO THE COAST WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A STABLE AIR MASS INTO MID-WEEK. THE ECMWF
REMAINS SLIGHTLY STRONGER/WARMER THAN THE GFS, BUT THE DAY 6 AND 7
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED BY A FEW DEGREES AS THE GFS HAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

NSK/DW/TRW








000
FXUS66 KMFR 210337
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
837 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE ANOTHER 5 DEGREES COOLER THIS
EVENING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...CONTINUING THE
COOLING TREND. A DRIER AIR MASS IS ALSO BEING OBSERVED COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...WTIH DEW POINTS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THIS EVENING. I
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS A BIT TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND
INTERESTINGLY THE COASTAL WATERS ARE VOID OF ANY MARINE STRATUS AT
THE MOMENT. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE STRATUS WILL FILL IN THIS
EVENING...AFFECTING THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO STRATUS
WON`T MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND AS LAST NIGHT...AND ROSEBURG SHOULD
STAY MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW...BY A FEW DEGREES...AND AFTERNOON GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GAIN MOMENTUM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS DUE TO A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN NEAR THE COAST...AND THAT
WILL LIKELY INVIGORATE EXISTING FIRE BEHAVIOR. PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON AN OTHERWISE RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE
COOS COAST (INCLUDING KOTH) AND COASTAL VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND
THEN BURN OFF TO VFR BY MID MORNING THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 220 PM PDT WED 20 AUG 2014...WITH OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND, LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. AN AREA OF NORTH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS OFFSHORE SOUTH OF
CAPE FERRELO WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO LATER FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. -WRIGHT


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPED TODAY WITH AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN TONIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS...EXCEPT FOR THE EXPECTED RETURN OF COASTAL STRATUS NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO. THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL.
BUT, SKIES THAT WERE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH LESS
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF WEST SIDE MORNING STRATUS AND THE LACK OF
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON THURSDAY THEN USHER IN ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER MARINE
AIR. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS,
BELOW AROUND 5000 FT MSL, WITH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA
VALLEY. I INTRODUCED A 10% PROBABILITY OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AT
THE COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY COAST ON FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE AREA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN OREGON. THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH WILL
KEEP OUR REGION ON THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN WITH THE TROUGH TRACKING EAST TO THE
ROCKIES WITH THE WEST COAST UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WHILE A STRONGER RIDGE LURKS FAR OFFSHORE WITH ITS AXIS
AROUND 145W. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A STRONG THERMAL TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST
WITH OFFSHORE WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WILL PRODUCE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN OF POOR
TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AT MID-SLOPES AND
RIDGES. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING AND
CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS
EARLY SATURDAY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WILL RESEMBLE WHAT OCCURS ON SATURDAY BUT
WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF HEATING AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE
MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES BUT ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE OF A DRY COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS AND A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN OUR AREA
ON MONDAY THEN THE RIDGE MOVING TO THE COAST WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A STABLE AIR MASS INTO MID-WEEK. THE ECMWF
REMAINS SLIGHTLY STRONGER/WARMER THAN THE GFS, BUT THE DAY 6 AND 7
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED BY A FEW DEGREES AS THE GFS HAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

NSK/DW/TRW






  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 210249
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
849 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE LOCATED OVER WRN
WASHINGTON AS OF 830 PM MDT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE IS BEING
FELT MORE STRONGLY TO OUR NORTH...AND WE BELIEVE IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE TO HAVE INCREASED CONVECTION OVER ERN OREGON AND SW
IDAHO IN ADVANCE OF ITS ARRIVAL. WE UPDATED BACK AROUND 6 PM AND
INCREASED POPS BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR..ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT SHOWERS
SCATTERED EAST OF A LINE FROM KMYL TO KBOI TO KLKN.  AFTER
08Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS EAST OF A LINE FROM KBKE TO
KBOI TO KLKN.  SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT IN
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS ALOFT
WEST 20 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE ID-
NV BORDER AND ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO ARE TAPPING VERY MOIST AIR
/UP TO 1 INCH PWAT SOUTH/ WHILE ISOLATED CELLS WEST TO NEAR VALE
ARE NEAR THE COLD FRONTAL LIFT AND PWAT NEAR 0.75 INCHES. LAPSE
RATES 850-700 MB ARE QUITE UNSTABLE AROUND 9.8C/KM BUT BULK SHEAR
IS WEAK 20KTS OR LESS. SO GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
COOLING AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL DECREASE PRECIP CHANCES
W TO E. THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW STALLS AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL
IDAHO AND FRIDAY LIFTS TO CENTRAL IDAHO...SO LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SE...AND MODERATE W TO NW
WINDS OVER OREGON WITH LESSER FLOW NEAR THE LOW ARE EXPECTED OVER
IDAHO. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF OF AK WILL CARVE OUT A
COOL UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE PACNW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR A
ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNSEASONABLY COOL
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE REST OF
SOUTHWEST IDAHO MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD PUTTING THE AREA UNDER A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....RD
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 210249
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
849 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE LOCATED OVER WRN
WASHINGTON AS OF 830 PM MDT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE IS BEING
FELT MORE STRONGLY TO OUR NORTH...AND WE BELIEVE IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE TO HAVE INCREASED CONVECTION OVER ERN OREGON AND SW
IDAHO IN ADVANCE OF ITS ARRIVAL. WE UPDATED BACK AROUND 6 PM AND
INCREASED POPS BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR..ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT SHOWERS
SCATTERED EAST OF A LINE FROM KMYL TO KBOI TO KLKN.  AFTER
08Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS EAST OF A LINE FROM KBKE TO
KBOI TO KLKN.  SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT IN
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS ALOFT
WEST 20 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE ID-
NV BORDER AND ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO ARE TAPPING VERY MOIST AIR
/UP TO 1 INCH PWAT SOUTH/ WHILE ISOLATED CELLS WEST TO NEAR VALE
ARE NEAR THE COLD FRONTAL LIFT AND PWAT NEAR 0.75 INCHES. LAPSE
RATES 850-700 MB ARE QUITE UNSTABLE AROUND 9.8C/KM BUT BULK SHEAR
IS WEAK 20KTS OR LESS. SO GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
COOLING AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL DECREASE PRECIP CHANCES
W TO E. THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW STALLS AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL
IDAHO AND FRIDAY LIFTS TO CENTRAL IDAHO...SO LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SE...AND MODERATE W TO NW
WINDS OVER OREGON WITH LESSER FLOW NEAR THE LOW ARE EXPECTED OVER
IDAHO. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF OF AK WILL CARVE OUT A
COOL UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE PACNW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR A
ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNSEASONABLY COOL
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE REST OF
SOUTHWEST IDAHO MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD PUTTING THE AREA UNDER A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....RD
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA/AB



000
FXUS66 KPDT 210211
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
711 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWING CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THURSDAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES. UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE COOL SIDE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE. LIGHTER
WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FAIRLY DRY AND COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THURSDAY NIGHT A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH
AND FORM A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INLAND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
THEN LEAD TO INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO IDAHO ON SATURDAY
LEAVING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST AREA WILL
BE ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER IDAHO/MONTANA
SATURDAY EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, THE ELKHORN MOUNTAINS AND THE
WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. ON SUNDAY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
THERE WILL BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY THERE WILL A TAD MORE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING
SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. THEN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.  POLAN

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCT CIRRUS AT 20K FT AGL OVER BLUE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO AT KPDT AND KALW. KBDN AND KRDM
WILL HAVE SCT CUMULUS UNTIL AROUND 02Z/21ST. SKIES WILL BECOME
MAINLY CLEAR BY 03Z/21ST. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 10-20 KTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN WEAKEN AND
BECOME DRAINAGE WINDS AFTER 07Z/21ST.  KDLS WILL HAVE GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND UNTIL AROUND 03Z/21ST THIS EVENING.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  81  52  78 /   0   0   0  20
ALW  58  81  56  79 /  10   0  10  20
PSC  55  84  56  81 /   0   0   0  20
YKM  51  80  51  78 /   0   0  10  30
HRI  55  84  54  81 /   0   0   0  20
ELN  53  80  51  77 /   0   0  10  40
RDM  40  75  42  71 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  47  78  47  73 /  10   0   0  30
GCD  45  77  45  72 /  10   0   0  10
DLS  55  80  56  79 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94






000
FXUS66 KPDT 210211
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
711 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWING CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THURSDAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES. UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE COOL SIDE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE. LIGHTER
WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FAIRLY DRY AND COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THURSDAY NIGHT A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH
AND FORM A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INLAND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
THEN LEAD TO INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO IDAHO ON SATURDAY
LEAVING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST AREA WILL
BE ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER IDAHO/MONTANA
SATURDAY EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, THE ELKHORN MOUNTAINS AND THE
WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. ON SUNDAY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
THERE WILL BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY THERE WILL A TAD MORE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING
SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. THEN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.  POLAN

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCT CIRRUS AT 20K FT AGL OVER BLUE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO AT KPDT AND KALW. KBDN AND KRDM
WILL HAVE SCT CUMULUS UNTIL AROUND 02Z/21ST. SKIES WILL BECOME
MAINLY CLEAR BY 03Z/21ST. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 10-20 KTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN WEAKEN AND
BECOME DRAINAGE WINDS AFTER 07Z/21ST.  KDLS WILL HAVE GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND UNTIL AROUND 03Z/21ST THIS EVENING.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  81  52  78 /   0   0   0  20
ALW  58  81  56  79 /  10   0  10  20
PSC  55  84  56  81 /   0   0   0  20
YKM  51  80  51  78 /   0   0  10  30
HRI  55  84  54  81 /   0   0   0  20
ELN  53  80  51  77 /   0   0  10  40
RDM  40  75  42  71 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  47  78  47  73 /  10   0   0  30
GCD  45  77  45  72 /  10   0   0  10
DLS  55  80  56  79 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94





000
FXUS66 KMFR 202204
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
304 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPED TODAY WITH AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN TONIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS...EXCEPT FOR THE EXPECTED RETURN OF COASTAL STRATUS NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO. THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL.
BUT, SKIES THAT WERE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH LESS
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF WEST SIDE MORNING STRATUS AND THE LACK OF
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON THURSDAY THEN USHER IN ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER MARINE
AIR. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS,
BELOW AROUND 5000 FT MSL, WITH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA
VALLEY. I INTRODUCED A 10% PROBABILITY OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AT
THE COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY COAST ON FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE AREA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN OREGON. THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH WILL
KEEP OUR REGION ON THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN WITH THE TROUGH TRACKING EAST TO THE
ROCKIES WITH THE WEST COAST UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WHILE A STRONGER RIDGE LURKS FAR OFFSHORE WITH ITS AXIS
AROUND 145W. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A STRONG THERMAL TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST
WITH OFFSHORE WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WILL PRODUCE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN OF POOR
TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AT MID-SLOPES AND
RIDGES. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING AND
CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS
EARLY SATURDAY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WILL RESEMBLE WHAT OCCURS ON SATURDAY BUT
WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF HEATING AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE
MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES BUT ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE OF A DRY COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS AND A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN OUR AREA
ON MONDAY THEN THE RIDGE MOVING TO THE COAST WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A STABLE AIR MASS INTO MID-WEEK. THE ECMWF
REMAINS SLIGHTLY STRONGER/WARMER THAN THE GFS, BUT THE DAY 6 AND 7
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED BY A FEW DEGREES AS THE GFS HAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 20/18Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOCAL VFR CEILINGS OVER EASTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING THEN DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR
ALOFT ARRIVES. COASTAL STRATUS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING
FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD THEN IT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE
COQUILLE VALLEY AND LOCALLY INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. THE COASTAL AND COASTAL VALLEY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z ON THURSDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 220 PM PDT WED 20 AUG 2014...WITH OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND, LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. AN AREA OF NORTH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS OFFSHORE SOUTH OF
CAPE FERRELO WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO LATER FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/MAP/TRW







000
FXUS66 KMFR 202204
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
304 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPED TODAY WITH AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN TONIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS...EXCEPT FOR THE EXPECTED RETURN OF COASTAL STRATUS NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO. THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL.
BUT, SKIES THAT WERE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH LESS
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF WEST SIDE MORNING STRATUS AND THE LACK OF
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON THURSDAY THEN USHER IN ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER MARINE
AIR. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS,
BELOW AROUND 5000 FT MSL, WITH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA
VALLEY. I INTRODUCED A 10% PROBABILITY OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AT
THE COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY COAST ON FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE AREA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN OREGON. THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH WILL
KEEP OUR REGION ON THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN WITH THE TROUGH TRACKING EAST TO THE
ROCKIES WITH THE WEST COAST UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WHILE A STRONGER RIDGE LURKS FAR OFFSHORE WITH ITS AXIS
AROUND 145W. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A STRONG THERMAL TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST
WITH OFFSHORE WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WILL PRODUCE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN OF POOR
TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AT MID-SLOPES AND
RIDGES. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING AND
CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS
EARLY SATURDAY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WILL RESEMBLE WHAT OCCURS ON SATURDAY BUT
WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF HEATING AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE
MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES BUT ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE OF A DRY COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS AND A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN OUR AREA
ON MONDAY THEN THE RIDGE MOVING TO THE COAST WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A STABLE AIR MASS INTO MID-WEEK. THE ECMWF
REMAINS SLIGHTLY STRONGER/WARMER THAN THE GFS, BUT THE DAY 6 AND 7
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED BY A FEW DEGREES AS THE GFS HAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 20/18Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOCAL VFR CEILINGS OVER EASTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING THEN DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR
ALOFT ARRIVES. COASTAL STRATUS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING
FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD THEN IT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE
COQUILLE VALLEY AND LOCALLY INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. THE COASTAL AND COASTAL VALLEY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z ON THURSDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 220 PM PDT WED 20 AUG 2014...WITH OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND, LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. AN AREA OF NORTH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS OFFSHORE SOUTH OF
CAPE FERRELO WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO LATER FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/MAP/TRW






000
FXUS66 KPDT 202132
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
232 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FAIRLY DRY AND COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THURSDAY NIGHT A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH
AND FORM A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INLAND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
THEN LEAD TO INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO IDAHO ON SATURDAY
LEAVING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST AREA WILL
BE ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER IDAHO/MONTANA
SATURDAY EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, THE ELKHORN MOUNTAINS AND THE
WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. ON SUNDAY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
THERE WILL BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY THERE WILL A TAD MORE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING
SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. THEN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.  POLAN


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCT CIRRUS AT 20K FT AGL OVER BLUE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO AT KPDT AND KALW. KBDN AND KRDM
WILL HAVE SCT CUMULUS UNTIL AROUND 02Z/21ST. SKIES WILL BECOME
MAINLY CLEAR BY 03Z/21ST. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 10-20 KTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN WEAKEN AND
BECOME DRAINAGE WINDS AFTER 07Z/21ST.  KDLS WILL HAVE GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND UNTIL AROUND 03Z/21ST THIS EVENING.  POLAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  81  53  78 /   0   0   0  20
ALW  60  81  59  79 /  10   0  10  20
PSC  59  84  59  81 /   0   0   0  20
YKM  52  80  54  78 /   0   0  10  30
HRI  57  84  56  81 /   0   0   0  20
ELN  56  80  55  77 /   0   0  10  40
RDM  41  75  43  71 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  47  78  49  73 /  10   0   0  30
GCD  47  77  50  72 /  10   0   0  10
DLS  56  80  59  79 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99








000
FXUS66 KPDT 202132
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
232 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FAIRLY DRY AND COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THURSDAY NIGHT A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH
AND FORM A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INLAND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
THEN LEAD TO INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO IDAHO ON SATURDAY
LEAVING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST AREA WILL
BE ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER IDAHO/MONTANA
SATURDAY EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, THE ELKHORN MOUNTAINS AND THE
WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. ON SUNDAY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
THERE WILL BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY THERE WILL A TAD MORE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING
SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. THEN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.  POLAN


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCT CIRRUS AT 20K FT AGL OVER BLUE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO AT KPDT AND KALW. KBDN AND KRDM
WILL HAVE SCT CUMULUS UNTIL AROUND 02Z/21ST. SKIES WILL BECOME
MAINLY CLEAR BY 03Z/21ST. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 10-20 KTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN WEAKEN AND
BECOME DRAINAGE WINDS AFTER 07Z/21ST.  KDLS WILL HAVE GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND UNTIL AROUND 03Z/21ST THIS EVENING.  POLAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  81  53  78 /   0   0   0  20
ALW  60  81  59  79 /  10   0  10  20
PSC  59  84  59  81 /   0   0   0  20
YKM  52  80  54  78 /   0   0  10  30
HRI  57  84  56  81 /   0   0   0  20
ELN  56  80  55  77 /   0   0  10  40
RDM  41  75  43  71 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  47  78  49  73 /  10   0   0  30
GCD  47  77  50  72 /  10   0   0  10
DLS  56  80  59  79 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99








000
FXUS66 KPDT 202132
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
232 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FAIRLY DRY AND COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THURSDAY NIGHT A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH
AND FORM A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INLAND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
THEN LEAD TO INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO IDAHO ON SATURDAY
LEAVING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST AREA WILL
BE ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER IDAHO/MONTANA
SATURDAY EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, THE ELKHORN MOUNTAINS AND THE
WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. ON SUNDAY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
THERE WILL BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY THERE WILL A TAD MORE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING
SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. THEN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.  POLAN


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCT CIRRUS AT 20K FT AGL OVER BLUE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO AT KPDT AND KALW. KBDN AND KRDM
WILL HAVE SCT CUMULUS UNTIL AROUND 02Z/21ST. SKIES WILL BECOME
MAINLY CLEAR BY 03Z/21ST. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 10-20 KTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN WEAKEN AND
BECOME DRAINAGE WINDS AFTER 07Z/21ST.  KDLS WILL HAVE GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND UNTIL AROUND 03Z/21ST THIS EVENING.  POLAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  81  53  78 /   0   0   0  20
ALW  60  81  59  79 /  10   0  10  20
PSC  59  84  59  81 /   0   0   0  20
YKM  52  80  54  78 /   0   0  10  30
HRI  57  84  56  81 /   0   0   0  20
ELN  56  80  55  77 /   0   0  10  40
RDM  41  75  43  71 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  47  78  49  73 /  10   0   0  30
GCD  47  77  50  72 /  10   0   0  10
DLS  56  80  59  79 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99








000
FXUS66 KPDT 202132
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
232 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FAIRLY DRY AND COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THURSDAY NIGHT A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH
AND FORM A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INLAND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
THEN LEAD TO INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO IDAHO ON SATURDAY
LEAVING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST AREA WILL
BE ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER IDAHO/MONTANA
SATURDAY EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, THE ELKHORN MOUNTAINS AND THE
WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. ON SUNDAY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
THERE WILL BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY THERE WILL A TAD MORE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING
SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. THEN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.  POLAN


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCT CIRRUS AT 20K FT AGL OVER BLUE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO AT KPDT AND KALW. KBDN AND KRDM
WILL HAVE SCT CUMULUS UNTIL AROUND 02Z/21ST. SKIES WILL BECOME
MAINLY CLEAR BY 03Z/21ST. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 10-20 KTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN WEAKEN AND
BECOME DRAINAGE WINDS AFTER 07Z/21ST.  KDLS WILL HAVE GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND UNTIL AROUND 03Z/21ST THIS EVENING.  POLAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  81  53  78 /   0   0   0  20
ALW  60  81  59  79 /  10   0  10  20
PSC  59  84  59  81 /   0   0   0  20
YKM  52  80  54  78 /   0   0  10  30
HRI  57  84  56  81 /   0   0   0  20
ELN  56  80  55  77 /   0   0  10  40
RDM  41  75  43  71 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  47  78  49  73 /  10   0   0  30
GCD  47  77  50  72 /  10   0   0  10
DLS  56  80  59  79 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99








000
FXUS66 KPQR 202122
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...COULD RESULT IN A SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN ZONES...AND A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MORNING STRATUS LAYER HAS
TRANSFORMED INTO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH CIGS GENERALLY 035
TO 045. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND EXPECT SIMILAR DRIZZLE COVERAGE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING COMPARED TO TODAY. SW WA LOWLANDS... OREGON
COAST...AND WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE SOME OF THE MORE FAVORED
DRIZZLE AREAS. KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT UP TO 4.0 MB AS OF 20Z...WHICH
NORMALLY RESULTS IN AT LEAST 25-30 MPH GUSTS NEAR HOOD RIVER.
AUGSPURGER...AN ELEVATED BPA SITE ON THE WASHINGTON SIDE OF THE
GORGE...GUSTING TO 35 MPH. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CHANGES CENTER ON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. LATEST NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE AREAS OF LIGHT QPF
FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS. BOTH MODELS SHOW THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING AS A REINFORCING SHORT-WAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
TROUGH BASE...AIDED BY A 80-100 KT 300 MB JET STREAK. NAM SHOWS
FAIRLY ROBUST 700 MB OMEGA FOCUSED OVER SW WA AND EXTREME NW OREGON
12Z FRI. WOULD EXPECT A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR
AT LEAST AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING IN THE
LOWLANDS AND POSSIBLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. ANY
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS STILL SOME VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD
TO THE ACTUAL LOW TRACK BUT MODELS GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON CASCADES FRI AFTERNOON FOR A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AND TRY TO MOVE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RUN INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS
OVERALL ON TOP OF THE ALREADY STABLE LOW LEVEL MARINE INFLUENCED LOW
LEVELS. CYCLONIC JET FROM THE DEPARTING LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
CASCADE CREST TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE SAT...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING. WEISHAAR


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SEEN AT 500 AND 850 MB. THIS WILL ONLY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES...AS
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED FROM NORTHERLY CONTINENTAL FLOW AND
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE DOWNWARD MOTION OVER THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF OUR AREA. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES UP AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT CLOUDS
AND SOME CIGS 3000 TO 4000 FT. CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INLAND WHILE ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS MVFR CIGS
BACK TO COAST AFT 02Z. MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH INLAND AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH CIGS AROUND 2500 FT BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST
LIKELIHOOD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIVER. COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS FARTHER SOUTH IN THE VALLEY BUT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SOUTH OF PDX.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT THURSDAY MORNING AFTER
13Z BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS SHOWING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AT 10 SECONDS BUT THERE`S
ALSO ENERGY AT 8 SECONDS SO SEAS WILL BE A BIT STEEP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NW WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KT. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED NW
WIND AND SWELL. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PACIFIC
STRENGTHENS A BIT WITH THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 202122
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...COULD RESULT IN A SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN ZONES...AND A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MORNING STRATUS LAYER HAS
TRANSFORMED INTO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH CIGS GENERALLY 035
TO 045. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND EXPECT SIMILAR DRIZZLE COVERAGE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING COMPARED TO TODAY. SW WA LOWLANDS... OREGON
COAST...AND WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE SOME OF THE MORE FAVORED
DRIZZLE AREAS. KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT UP TO 4.0 MB AS OF 20Z...WHICH
NORMALLY RESULTS IN AT LEAST 25-30 MPH GUSTS NEAR HOOD RIVER.
AUGSPURGER...AN ELEVATED BPA SITE ON THE WASHINGTON SIDE OF THE
GORGE...GUSTING TO 35 MPH. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CHANGES CENTER ON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. LATEST NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE AREAS OF LIGHT QPF
FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS. BOTH MODELS SHOW THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING AS A REINFORCING SHORT-WAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
TROUGH BASE...AIDED BY A 80-100 KT 300 MB JET STREAK. NAM SHOWS
FAIRLY ROBUST 700 MB OMEGA FOCUSED OVER SW WA AND EXTREME NW OREGON
12Z FRI. WOULD EXPECT A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR
AT LEAST AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING IN THE
LOWLANDS AND POSSIBLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. ANY
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS STILL SOME VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD
TO THE ACTUAL LOW TRACK BUT MODELS GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON CASCADES FRI AFTERNOON FOR A SLIM THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AND TRY TO MOVE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RUN INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS
OVERALL ON TOP OF THE ALREADY STABLE LOW LEVEL MARINE INFLUENCED LOW
LEVELS. CYCLONIC JET FROM THE DEPARTING LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
CASCADE CREST TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE SAT...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING. WEISHAAR


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SEEN AT 500 AND 850 MB. THIS WILL ONLY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES...AS
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED FROM NORTHERLY CONTINENTAL FLOW AND
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE DOWNWARD MOTION OVER THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF OUR AREA. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES UP AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT CLOUDS
AND SOME CIGS 3000 TO 4000 FT. CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INLAND WHILE ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS MVFR CIGS
BACK TO COAST AFT 02Z. MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH INLAND AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH CIGS AROUND 2500 FT BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST
LIKELIHOOD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIVER. COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS FARTHER SOUTH IN THE VALLEY BUT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SOUTH OF PDX.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT THURSDAY MORNING AFTER
13Z BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS SHOWING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AT 10 SECONDS BUT THERE`S
ALSO ENERGY AT 8 SECONDS SO SEAS WILL BE A BIT STEEP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NW WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KT. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED NW
WIND AND SWELL. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PACIFIC
STRENGTHENS A BIT WITH THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 202119
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
319 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE ID-
NV BORDER AND ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO ARE TAPPING VERY MOIST AIR
/UP TO 1 INCH PWAT SOUTH/ WHILE ISOLATED CELLS WEST TO NEAR VALE
ARE NEAR THE COLD FRONTAL LIFT AND PWAT NEAR 0.75 INCHES. LAPSE
RATES 850-700 MB ARE QUITE UNSTABLE AROUND 9.8C/KM BUT BULK SHEAR
IS WEAK 20KTS OR LESS. SO GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
COOLING AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL DECREASE PRECIP CHANCES
W TO E. THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW STALLS AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL
IDAHO AND FRIDAY LIFTS TO CENTRAL IDAHO...SO LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SE...AND MODERATE W TO NW
WINDS OVER OREGON WITH LESSER FLOW NEAR THE LOW ARE EXPECTED OVER
IDAHO. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER HTE NE GULF OF AK WILL CARVE OUT A
COOL UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE PACNW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR A
ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNSEASONABLY COOL
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE REST OF
SOUTHWEST IDAHO MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD PUTTING THE AREA UNDER A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF A LINE FROM KMYL TO KMUO TO KREO THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WEST TO
NORTHWEST 5-15KT...EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE GUSTS
TO 35KT POSSIBLE. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA/AB
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 202119
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
319 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE ID-
NV BORDER AND ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO ARE TAPPING VERY MOIST AIR
/UP TO 1 INCH PWAT SOUTH/ WHILE ISOLATED CELLS WEST TO NEAR VALE
ARE NEAR THE COLD FRONTAL LIFT AND PWAT NEAR 0.75 INCHES. LAPSE
RATES 850-700 MB ARE QUITE UNSTABLE AROUND 9.8C/KM BUT BULK SHEAR
IS WEAK 20KTS OR LESS. SO GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
COOLING AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL DECREASE PRECIP CHANCES
W TO E. THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW STALLS AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL
IDAHO AND FRIDAY LIFTS TO CENTRAL IDAHO...SO LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SE...AND MODERATE W TO NW
WINDS OVER OREGON WITH LESSER FLOW NEAR THE LOW ARE EXPECTED OVER
IDAHO. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER HTE NE GULF OF AK WILL CARVE OUT A
COOL UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE PACNW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR A
ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNSEASONABLY COOL
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE REST OF
SOUTHWEST IDAHO MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD PUTTING THE AREA UNDER A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF A LINE FROM KMYL TO KMUO TO KREO THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WEST TO
NORTHWEST 5-15KT...EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE GUSTS
TO 35KT POSSIBLE. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA/AB
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 202119
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
319 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE ID-
NV BORDER AND ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO ARE TAPPING VERY MOIST AIR
/UP TO 1 INCH PWAT SOUTH/ WHILE ISOLATED CELLS WEST TO NEAR VALE
ARE NEAR THE COLD FRONTAL LIFT AND PWAT NEAR 0.75 INCHES. LAPSE
RATES 850-700 MB ARE QUITE UNSTABLE AROUND 9.8C/KM BUT BULK SHEAR
IS WEAK 20KTS OR LESS. SO GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
COOLING AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL DECREASE PRECIP CHANCES
W TO E. THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW STALLS AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL
IDAHO AND FRIDAY LIFTS TO CENTRAL IDAHO...SO LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SE...AND MODERATE W TO NW
WINDS OVER OREGON WITH LESSER FLOW NEAR THE LOW ARE EXPECTED OVER
IDAHO. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER HTE NE GULF OF AK WILL CARVE OUT A
COOL UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE PACNW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR A
ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNSEASONABLY COOL
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE REST OF
SOUTHWEST IDAHO MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD PUTTING THE AREA UNDER A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF A LINE FROM KMYL TO KMUO TO KREO THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WEST TO
NORTHWEST 5-15KT...EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE GUSTS
TO 35KT POSSIBLE. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA/AB
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 202119
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
319 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE ID-
NV BORDER AND ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO ARE TAPPING VERY MOIST AIR
/UP TO 1 INCH PWAT SOUTH/ WHILE ISOLATED CELLS WEST TO NEAR VALE
ARE NEAR THE COLD FRONTAL LIFT AND PWAT NEAR 0.75 INCHES. LAPSE
RATES 850-700 MB ARE QUITE UNSTABLE AROUND 9.8C/KM BUT BULK SHEAR
IS WEAK 20KTS OR LESS. SO GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
COOLING AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL DECREASE PRECIP CHANCES
W TO E. THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW STALLS AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL
IDAHO AND FRIDAY LIFTS TO CENTRAL IDAHO...SO LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SE...AND MODERATE W TO NW
WINDS OVER OREGON WITH LESSER FLOW NEAR THE LOW ARE EXPECTED OVER
IDAHO. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER HTE NE GULF OF AK WILL CARVE OUT A
COOL UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE PACNW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR A
ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNSEASONABLY COOL
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE REST OF
SOUTHWEST IDAHO MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD PUTTING THE AREA UNDER A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF A LINE FROM KMYL TO KMUO TO KREO THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WEST TO
NORTHWEST 5-15KT...EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE GUSTS
TO 35KT POSSIBLE. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA/AB
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS66 KPDT 201759 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1059 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNDER A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER FOR THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...COOLER AND BREEZY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BKN-OVC CIRRUS AT 20K FT AGL AT KYKM, KDLS, KPSC, KPDT AND
KALW. KRDM WILL HAVE SCT STRATOCUMULUS AT 4K FT AGL INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. KBDN WILL HAVE BKN STRATOCUMULUS UNTIL AROUND 22Z, THEN
SCT 5K FT AGL FOR REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES THEN BECOMING
MAINLY CLEAR BY 00Z-03Z/21ST. SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20
KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. KDLS WILL HAVE GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... /ISSUED 225 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE EASTWARD SLIGHTLY CAUSING A NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE CWA.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA THROUGH THAT
TIME PERIOD. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE CWA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSPORT MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE
CWA ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE LEAST LIKELY PLACE TOO RECEIVE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE OVER CENTRAL OREGON ON DAY 3. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OVER
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE GRANDE RONDE
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. 88

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON FRIDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES DUE TO ENHANCEMENT BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A SERIES OF WEAK
WAVES WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. DAYTIME
HEATING...INSTABILITY...AND LINGERING MOISTURE MAY COMBINE TO
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY A DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.  COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  83  53  81  53 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  83  60  81  59 /   0  10   0  10
PSC  86  59  84  58 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  84  52  80  54 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  85  57  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  82  56  80  55 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  76  41  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  79  47  78  49 /  10  10   0  10
GCD  78  47  77  50 /  10  10   0  10
DLS  81  56  80  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/88/76







000
FXUS66 KPDT 201759 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1059 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNDER A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER FOR THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...COOLER AND BREEZY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BKN-OVC CIRRUS AT 20K FT AGL AT KYKM, KDLS, KPSC, KPDT AND
KALW. KRDM WILL HAVE SCT STRATOCUMULUS AT 4K FT AGL INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. KBDN WILL HAVE BKN STRATOCUMULUS UNTIL AROUND 22Z, THEN
SCT 5K FT AGL FOR REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES THEN BECOMING
MAINLY CLEAR BY 00Z-03Z/21ST. SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20
KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. KDLS WILL HAVE GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... /ISSUED 225 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE EASTWARD SLIGHTLY CAUSING A NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE CWA.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA THROUGH THAT
TIME PERIOD. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE CWA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSPORT MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE
CWA ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE LEAST LIKELY PLACE TOO RECEIVE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE OVER CENTRAL OREGON ON DAY 3. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OVER
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE GRANDE RONDE
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. 88

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON FRIDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES DUE TO ENHANCEMENT BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A SERIES OF WEAK
WAVES WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. DAYTIME
HEATING...INSTABILITY...AND LINGERING MOISTURE MAY COMBINE TO
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY A DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.  COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  83  53  81  53 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  83  60  81  59 /   0  10   0  10
PSC  86  59  84  58 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  84  52  80  54 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  85  57  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  82  56  80  55 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  76  41  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  79  47  78  49 /  10  10   0  10
GCD  78  47  77  50 /  10  10   0  10
DLS  81  56  80  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/88/76







000
FXUS66 KPDT 201759 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1059 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNDER A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER FOR THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...COOLER AND BREEZY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BKN-OVC CIRRUS AT 20K FT AGL AT KYKM, KDLS, KPSC, KPDT AND
KALW. KRDM WILL HAVE SCT STRATOCUMULUS AT 4K FT AGL INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. KBDN WILL HAVE BKN STRATOCUMULUS UNTIL AROUND 22Z, THEN
SCT 5K FT AGL FOR REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES THEN BECOMING
MAINLY CLEAR BY 00Z-03Z/21ST. SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20
KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. KDLS WILL HAVE GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... /ISSUED 225 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE EASTWARD SLIGHTLY CAUSING A NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE CWA.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA THROUGH THAT
TIME PERIOD. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE CWA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSPORT MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE
CWA ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE LEAST LIKELY PLACE TOO RECEIVE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE OVER CENTRAL OREGON ON DAY 3. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OVER
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE GRANDE RONDE
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. 88

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON FRIDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES DUE TO ENHANCEMENT BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A SERIES OF WEAK
WAVES WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. DAYTIME
HEATING...INSTABILITY...AND LINGERING MOISTURE MAY COMBINE TO
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY A DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.  COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  83  53  81  53 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  83  60  81  59 /   0  10   0  10
PSC  86  59  84  58 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  84  52  80  54 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  85  57  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  82  56  80  55 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  76  41  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  79  47  78  49 /  10  10   0  10
GCD  78  47  77  50 /  10  10   0  10
DLS  81  56  80  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/88/76







000
FXUS66 KPDT 201759 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1059 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNDER A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER FOR THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...COOLER AND BREEZY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BKN-OVC CIRRUS AT 20K FT AGL AT KYKM, KDLS, KPSC, KPDT AND
KALW. KRDM WILL HAVE SCT STRATOCUMULUS AT 4K FT AGL INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. KBDN WILL HAVE BKN STRATOCUMULUS UNTIL AROUND 22Z, THEN
SCT 5K FT AGL FOR REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES THEN BECOMING
MAINLY CLEAR BY 00Z-03Z/21ST. SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20
KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. KDLS WILL HAVE GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... /ISSUED 225 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE EASTWARD SLIGHTLY CAUSING A NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE CWA.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA THROUGH THAT
TIME PERIOD. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE CWA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSPORT MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE
CWA ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE LEAST LIKELY PLACE TOO RECEIVE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE OVER CENTRAL OREGON ON DAY 3. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OVER
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE GRANDE RONDE
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. 88

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON FRIDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES DUE TO ENHANCEMENT BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A SERIES OF WEAK
WAVES WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. DAYTIME
HEATING...INSTABILITY...AND LINGERING MOISTURE MAY COMBINE TO
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY A DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.  COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  83  53  81  53 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  83  60  81  59 /   0  10   0  10
PSC  86  59  84  58 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  84  52  80  54 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  85  57  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  82  56  80  55 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  76  41  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  79  47  78  49 /  10  10   0  10
GCD  78  47  77  50 /  10  10   0  10
DLS  81  56  80  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/88/76







000
FXUS66 KMFR 201550
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
850 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A MORNING UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS NOT NECESSARY.
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ARE
BEGINNING TO THIN AND INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
HELP MIXING AND LIFT THE FOG AT BROOKINGS AS WELL. OTHERWISE,
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SMOKE FROM FIRES
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.

THE 12Z GFS DATA HAS VERY RECENTLY ARRIVED AND IS CONSISTENT WITH
ITS EARLIER RUN AND WITH THE 00Z ECMWF IN THE PROGRESSION OF
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WITH LESS
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF WEST SIDE MORNING STRATUS. FRIDAY WILL BE
COOLER AS A TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON.
THEREAFTER...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEY DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH
OF FEATURES BUT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE OF A DRY
COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
IN OUR AREA ON MONDAY THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A STABLE
AIR MASS INTO MID-WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 20/12Z TAF CYCLE...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS
ARE IMPACTING THE COAST NEAR BROOKINGS, AND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AND INLAND INTO PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL BE VFR EXCEPT FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO THICK SMOKE IN
THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY DUE TO ONGOING
WILDFIRES. THE SMOKE PLUMES FROM THESE FIRES ARE EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS SISKIYOU, MODOC AND THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF LAKE
COUNTY. MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT, BUT STILL EXPECTING AREAS OF IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST AND
INTERIOR COOS COUNTY. /SPILDE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 5 AM PDT WED 20 AUG 2014...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL BRING MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR AN
AREA OF NORTH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS OFFSHORE SOUTH OF CAPE
FERRELO. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST LATER
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO ALL OF COOS COUNTY AND
HAVE SPREAD INTO WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHORT TERM MODELS HINT AT
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS NOW MOVED INTO OUR FORECAST AREA WITH
H850 TEMPERATURE DECREASING FROM YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
INLAND WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WHICH WOULD BE A WELCOME
CHANGE FOR THE RECENT STRING OF HOT TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO CENTRAL WASHINGTON STATE ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL HELP TO REINFORCE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRIER.

THE LATEST GFS RUN CONTINUES WITH A WARMING TREND RETURNING NEXT
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OFFSHORE NUDGES TOWARD THE COAST. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO PERIODS OF THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST
FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS SW OREGON COASTAL MOUNTAINS. FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/MAP






000
FXUS66 KMFR 201550
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
850 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A MORNING UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS NOT NECESSARY.
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ARE
BEGINNING TO THIN AND INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
HELP MIXING AND LIFT THE FOG AT BROOKINGS AS WELL. OTHERWISE,
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SMOKE FROM FIRES
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.

THE 12Z GFS DATA HAS VERY RECENTLY ARRIVED AND IS CONSISTENT WITH
ITS EARLIER RUN AND WITH THE 00Z ECMWF IN THE PROGRESSION OF
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WITH LESS
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF WEST SIDE MORNING STRATUS. FRIDAY WILL BE
COOLER AS A TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON.
THEREAFTER...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEY DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH
OF FEATURES BUT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE OF A DRY
COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
IN OUR AREA ON MONDAY THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A STABLE
AIR MASS INTO MID-WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 20/12Z TAF CYCLE...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS
ARE IMPACTING THE COAST NEAR BROOKINGS, AND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AND INLAND INTO PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL BE VFR EXCEPT FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO THICK SMOKE IN
THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY DUE TO ONGOING
WILDFIRES. THE SMOKE PLUMES FROM THESE FIRES ARE EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS SISKIYOU, MODOC AND THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF LAKE
COUNTY. MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT, BUT STILL EXPECTING AREAS OF IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST AND
INTERIOR COOS COUNTY. /SPILDE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 5 AM PDT WED 20 AUG 2014...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL BRING MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR AN
AREA OF NORTH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS OFFSHORE SOUTH OF CAPE
FERRELO. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST LATER
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO ALL OF COOS COUNTY AND
HAVE SPREAD INTO WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHORT TERM MODELS HINT AT
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS NOW MOVED INTO OUR FORECAST AREA WITH
H850 TEMPERATURE DECREASING FROM YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
INLAND WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WHICH WOULD BE A WELCOME
CHANGE FOR THE RECENT STRING OF HOT TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO CENTRAL WASHINGTON STATE ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL HELP TO REINFORCE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRIER.

THE LATEST GFS RUN CONTINUES WITH A WARMING TREND RETURNING NEXT
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OFFSHORE NUDGES TOWARD THE COAST. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO PERIODS OF THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST
FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS SW OREGON COASTAL MOUNTAINS. FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/MAP







000
FXUS65 KBOI 201542
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
941 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS IDAHO ZONES TODAY. DRIER NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE CHANCES THROUGH OREGON. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAINING IN EASTERN HALF OF STATE REMAIN OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO AFTER 18Z. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AFTER
18Z...WINDS GUSTS TO 35 KTS VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z. WINDS
ALOFT NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE WILL
GRADUALLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PAC NW THROUGH
THURSDAY. FOR TODAY A WEAK IMPULSE WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW IDAHO
ZONES. ENOUGH DRY AIR MAKES INROADS INTO SE OREGON TO LIMIT SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE ID/OR BORDER AREA. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MINIMAL SO BIGGEST THREAT AGAIN TODAY WOULD BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
TO 40 MPH. DRIER AIRMASS ADVANCES INTO SW IDAHO ON THURSDAY LEAVING
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
IDAHO...EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE 5-8F DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF COOLING INTO THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A
CLOSED LOW FORMS LATE THURSDAY OVER WASHINGTON AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS IDAHO SUGGESTIONS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY BUT IS FOLLOWED
BUT TWO MORE UPPER TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THESE TROUGHS WILL BE DRY AND BRING IN
RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE COLDEST DAYS BEING SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST TUESDAY LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND THE BEGINNING OF A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DMH
AVIATION...DMH
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JS





000
FXUS65 KBOI 201542
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
941 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS IDAHO ZONES TODAY. DRIER NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE CHANCES THROUGH OREGON. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAINING IN EASTERN HALF OF STATE REMAIN OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO AFTER 18Z. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AFTER
18Z...WINDS GUSTS TO 35 KTS VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z. WINDS
ALOFT NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE WILL
GRADUALLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PAC NW THROUGH
THURSDAY. FOR TODAY A WEAK IMPULSE WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW IDAHO
ZONES. ENOUGH DRY AIR MAKES INROADS INTO SE OREGON TO LIMIT SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE ID/OR BORDER AREA. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MINIMAL SO BIGGEST THREAT AGAIN TODAY WOULD BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
TO 40 MPH. DRIER AIRMASS ADVANCES INTO SW IDAHO ON THURSDAY LEAVING
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
IDAHO...EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE 5-8F DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF COOLING INTO THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A
CLOSED LOW FORMS LATE THURSDAY OVER WASHINGTON AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS IDAHO SUGGESTIONS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY BUT IS FOLLOWED
BUT TWO MORE UPPER TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THESE TROUGHS WILL BE DRY AND BRING IN
RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE COLDEST DAYS BEING SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST TUESDAY LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND THE BEGINNING OF A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DMH
AVIATION...DMH
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JS






000
FXUS66 KPDT 201451
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
752 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNDER A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER FOR THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...COOLER AND BREEZY.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 225 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE EASTWARD SLIGHTLY CAUSING A NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE CWA.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA THROUGH THAT
TIME PERIOD. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE CWA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSPORT MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE
CWA ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE LEAST LIKELY PLACE TOO RECEIVE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE OVER CENTRAL OREGON ON DAY 3. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OVER
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE GRANDE RONDE
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. 88

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON FRIDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES DUE TO ENHANCEMENT BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A SERIES OF WEAK
WAVES WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. DAYTIME
HEATING...INSTABILITY...AND LINGERING MOISTURE MAY COMBINE TO
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY A DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.  COONFIELD

AVIATION...12Z TAFS....VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. TAF SITES MAINLY CLEAR WITH VARIABLE CIRRUS AT KYKM AND KPSC.
WINDS 5-15KT INCREASING TO 10-20 IN THE AFTERNOON 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  83  53  81  53 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  83  60  81  59 /   0  10   0  10
PSC  86  59  84  58 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  84  52  80  54 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  85  57  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  82  56  80  55 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  76  41  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  79  47  78  49 /  10  10   0  10
GCD  78  47  77  50 /  10  10   0  10
DLS  81  56  80  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99








000
FXUS66 KPDT 201451
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
752 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNDER A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER FOR THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...COOLER AND BREEZY.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 225 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE EASTWARD SLIGHTLY CAUSING A NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE CWA.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA THROUGH THAT
TIME PERIOD. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE CWA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSPORT MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE
CWA ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE LEAST LIKELY PLACE TOO RECEIVE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE OVER CENTRAL OREGON ON DAY 3. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OVER
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE GRANDE RONDE
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. 88

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON FRIDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES DUE TO ENHANCEMENT BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A SERIES OF WEAK
WAVES WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. DAYTIME
HEATING...INSTABILITY...AND LINGERING MOISTURE MAY COMBINE TO
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY A DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.  COONFIELD

AVIATION...12Z TAFS....VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. TAF SITES MAINLY CLEAR WITH VARIABLE CIRRUS AT KYKM AND KPSC.
WINDS 5-15KT INCREASING TO 10-20 IN THE AFTERNOON 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  83  53  81  53 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  83  60  81  59 /   0  10   0  10
PSC  86  59  84  58 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  84  52  80  54 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  85  57  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  82  56  80  55 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  76  41  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  79  47  78  49 /  10  10   0  10
GCD  78  47  77  50 /  10  10   0  10
DLS  81  56  80  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99









000
FXUS66 KPQR 201450
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
746 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES
ON FRIDAY. NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND
MAINTAINING ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SOLID STRATUS LAYER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...REACHING THE CASCADE CREST. ESTIMATE THE
LAYER IS 1000 TO 1500 FEET THICK AND WILL PROBABLY TAKE A WHILE TO
BURN OFF THIS MORNING. AS THEY DO...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL AGAIN
INCREASE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING MUCH BEYOND 20 MPH AND EVEN THEN ONLY FOR A COUPLE HOURS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS REACH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER SPEEDS ACROSS THE EXPOSED HIGHER GAP TERRAIN
NEAR THE GORGE...SUCH AS BPA SITE AUGSPURGER...WHICH IS ALREADY
GUSTING TO 40 MPH AS OF 14Z.

AFTERNOON ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING. WILL ALSO SEE THE MIDLEVEL FLOW
TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP DRY THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS RESULTING IN FEWER MORNING CLOUDS THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY AND
SHOULD ALSO LOWER DEW POINTS AS WELL.

THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO
SLIDE DOWN THE B.C. COAST AND ACROSS THE PACNW BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE
TREND OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS OF RUNS HAS BEEN TO PUSH A BRIEFLY
CLOSED LOW CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE CASCADES. THERE IS STILL SOME
VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE ACTUAL LOW
TRACK BUT IN GENERAL FEEL GOOD ABOUT WHERE THE EVENING SHIFT ADDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES. LOOKS LIKE ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AND TRY TO MOVE
WEST SOUTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RUN INTO A MORE STABLE
AIR MASS OVERALL ON TOP OF THE ALREADY STABLE LOW LEVEL WEAKENED
MARINE INFLUENCED LOW LEVELS. AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE THREAT
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS FOR THE TIME BEING.
THIS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN AN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDER THREAT WITH
SOME LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. WEISHAAR


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... NO FURTHER CHANGES.
REST OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST...THE PREVIOUS THREE MODELS (GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX) ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY. BECAUSE OF
HOW FAR OUT THIS FEATURE IS IN THE FORECAST...AND LACK OF AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND MOISTURE CONTENT...I HAVE LEFT POPS TO
CLIMATOLOGY BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE NORTH COAST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. CLOUD DECK WITH BASES 4500 TO
5000 FT AGAINST CASCADES HAVE BACKBUILT WESTWARD THIS
AM...REACHING BACK AS FAR AS COAST RANGE. ANOTHER DECK AROUND 2000
TO 3000 FT ALONG COAST HAS PUSHED INLAND THIS AM AND WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT INLAND AREAS FROM COWLITZ LOWLANDS TO N WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. AFTER 19Z...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP...BECOMING
SCATTERED BY 22Z OR 23Z. ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS MVFR CIGS BACK TO
COAST AFT 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH MAIN DECK NEAR 5000 FT THROUGH
21Z AND SECONDARY DECK FROM THE GORGE AROUND 3500 FT. CLOUDS
BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS ONLY BY 22Z.
ROCKEY/BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE THIS MORNING. WINDS OUT TO ABOUT 20
NM OFFSHORE ARE PRETTY LIGHT...SO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO UPDATE
THE FIRST PERIOD. BUOYS SHOWING 4 TO 5 FT SEAS AT AROUND 11
SECONDS WITH OCCASIONAL OBS AT 7 SECONDS BUT LONGER PERIOD SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY. NW WINDS CONTINUE...REMAINING AROUND 15
KT OR LESS WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 20 KT. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 201450
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
746 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES
ON FRIDAY. NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND
MAINTAINING ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SOLID STRATUS LAYER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...REACHING THE CASCADE CREST. ESTIMATE THE
LAYER IS 1000 TO 1500 FEET THICK AND WILL PROBABLY TAKE A WHILE TO
BURN OFF THIS MORNING. AS THEY DO...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL AGAIN
INCREASE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING MUCH BEYOND 20 MPH AND EVEN THEN ONLY FOR A COUPLE HOURS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS REACH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER SPEEDS ACROSS THE EXPOSED HIGHER GAP TERRAIN
NEAR THE GORGE...SUCH AS BPA SITE AUGSPURGER...WHICH IS ALREADY
GUSTING TO 40 MPH AS OF 14Z.

AFTERNOON ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING. WILL ALSO SEE THE MIDLEVEL FLOW
TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP DRY THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS RESULTING IN FEWER MORNING CLOUDS THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY AND
SHOULD ALSO LOWER DEW POINTS AS WELL.

THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO
SLIDE DOWN THE B.C. COAST AND ACROSS THE PACNW BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE
TREND OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS OF RUNS HAS BEEN TO PUSH A BRIEFLY
CLOSED LOW CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE CASCADES. THERE IS STILL SOME
VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE ACTUAL LOW
TRACK BUT IN GENERAL FEEL GOOD ABOUT WHERE THE EVENING SHIFT ADDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES. LOOKS LIKE ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AND TRY TO MOVE
WEST SOUTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RUN INTO A MORE STABLE
AIR MASS OVERALL ON TOP OF THE ALREADY STABLE LOW LEVEL WEAKENED
MARINE INFLUENCED LOW LEVELS. AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE THREAT
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS FOR THE TIME BEING.
THIS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN AN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDER THREAT WITH
SOME LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. WEISHAAR


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... NO FURTHER CHANGES.
REST OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST...THE PREVIOUS THREE MODELS (GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX) ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY. BECAUSE OF
HOW FAR OUT THIS FEATURE IS IN THE FORECAST...AND LACK OF AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND MOISTURE CONTENT...I HAVE LEFT POPS TO
CLIMATOLOGY BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE NORTH COAST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. CLOUD DECK WITH BASES 4500 TO
5000 FT AGAINST CASCADES HAVE BACKBUILT WESTWARD THIS
AM...REACHING BACK AS FAR AS COAST RANGE. ANOTHER DECK AROUND 2000
TO 3000 FT ALONG COAST HAS PUSHED INLAND THIS AM AND WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT INLAND AREAS FROM COWLITZ LOWLANDS TO N WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. AFTER 19Z...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP...BECOMING
SCATTERED BY 22Z OR 23Z. ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS MVFR CIGS BACK TO
COAST AFT 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH MAIN DECK NEAR 5000 FT THROUGH
21Z AND SECONDARY DECK FROM THE GORGE AROUND 3500 FT. CLOUDS
BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS ONLY BY 22Z.
ROCKEY/BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE THIS MORNING. WINDS OUT TO ABOUT 20
NM OFFSHORE ARE PRETTY LIGHT...SO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO UPDATE
THE FIRST PERIOD. BUOYS SHOWING 4 TO 5 FT SEAS AT AROUND 11
SECONDS WITH OCCASIONAL OBS AT 7 SECONDS BUT LONGER PERIOD SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY. NW WINDS CONTINUE...REMAINING AROUND 15
KT OR LESS WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 20 KT. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 201152 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
452 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO ALL OF COOS COUNTY AND
HAVE SPREAD INTO WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHORT TERM MODELS HINT AT
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. NOT AS CERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD WILL SPREAD INTO THE
ROGUE VALLEY GIVEN THAT AS OF 3AM CLOUDS HAVE NOT FILLED INTO THE
ROSEBURG AREA. HAVE OPTED TO HAVE SCATTERED CLOUDS INTO THE ROGUE
VALLEY THIS MORNING, BUT THE SKY GRIDS MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED
LATER THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS NOW MOVED INTO OUR FORECAST AREA WITH
H850 TEMPERATURE DECREASING FROM YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
INLAND WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WHICH WOULD BE A WELCOME
CHANGE FOR THE RECENT STRING OF HOT TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO CENTRAL WASHINGTON STATE ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL HELP TO REINFORCE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRIER.

THE LATEST GFS RUN CONTINUES WITH A WARMING TREND RETURNING NEXT
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OFFSHORE NUDGES TOWARD THE COAST. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO PERIODS OF THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST
FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS SW OREGON COASTAL MOUNTAINS. FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 20/12Z TAF CYCLE...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS
ARE IMPACTING THE COAST AND INLAND INTO PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA
BASIN. EXPECT SOME STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO FILL IN THIS MORNING
ALONG THE CASCADES/FOOTHILLS AND PERHAPS EVEN HERE AT KMFR, BUT
OTHER THAN SOME TERRAIN OBSCURATION, MOST CIGS SHOULD BE VFR.
SMOKE WILL BE THICK IN THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY DUE TO ONGOING WILDFIRES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR.
MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD TONIGHT,
BUT STILL EXPECTING SOME IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST AND INTERIOR
COOS COUNTY. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 5 AM PDT WED 20 AUG 2014...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL BRING MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR AN
AREA OF NORTH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS OFFSHORE SOUTH OF CAPE
FERRELO. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST LATER
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM
     THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

MAS/FB







000
FXUS66 KPDT 201126 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE EASTWARD SLIGHTLY CAUSING A NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE CWA.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA THROUGH THAT
TIME PERIOD. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE CWA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSPORT MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE
CWA ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE LEAST LIKELY PLACE TOO RECEIVE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE OVER CENTRAL OREGON ON DAY 3. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OVER
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE GRANDE RONDE
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON FRIDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES DUE TO ENHANCEMENT BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A SERIES OF WEAK
WAVES WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. DAYTIME
HEATING...INSTABILITY...AND LINGERING MOISTURE MAY COMBINE TO
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY A DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS....VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. TAF SITES MAINLY CLEAR WITH VARIABLE CIRRUS AT KYKM AND KPSC.
WINDS 5-15KT INCREASING TO 10-20 IN THE AFTERNOON 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  81  52  78  53 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  82  58  79  59 /   0  10   0  10
PSC  85  57  81  58 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  82  54  78  54 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  84  55  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  80  56  77  55 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  77  40  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  80  47  76  49 /  10  10   0  10
GCD  79  47  75  50 /  10  10   0  10
DLS  79  54  77  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/76/76






000
FXUS66 KPDT 201126 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE EASTWARD SLIGHTLY CAUSING A NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE CWA.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA THROUGH THAT
TIME PERIOD. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE CWA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSPORT MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE
CWA ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE LEAST LIKELY PLACE TOO RECEIVE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE OVER CENTRAL OREGON ON DAY 3. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OVER
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE GRANDE RONDE
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON FRIDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES DUE TO ENHANCEMENT BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A SERIES OF WEAK
WAVES WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. DAYTIME
HEATING...INSTABILITY...AND LINGERING MOISTURE MAY COMBINE TO
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY A DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS....VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. TAF SITES MAINLY CLEAR WITH VARIABLE CIRRUS AT KYKM AND KPSC.
WINDS 5-15KT INCREASING TO 10-20 IN THE AFTERNOON 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  81  52  78  53 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  82  58  79  59 /   0  10   0  10
PSC  85  57  81  58 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  82  54  78  54 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  84  55  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  80  56  77  55 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  77  40  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  80  47  76  49 /  10  10   0  10
GCD  79  47  75  50 /  10  10   0  10
DLS  79  54  77  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/76/76







000
FXUS66 KMFR 201025
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
325 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO ALL OF COOS COUNTY AND
HAVE SPREAD INTO WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHORT TERM MODELS HINT AT
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. NOT AS CERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD WILL SPREAD INTO THE
ROGUE VALLEY GIVEN THAT AS OF 3AM CLOUDS HAVE NOT FILLED INTO THE
ROSEBURG AREA. HAVE OPTED TO HAVE SCATTERED CLOUDS INTO THE ROGUE
VALLEY THIS MORNING, BUT THE SKY GRIDS MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED
LATER THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS NOW MOVED INTO OUR FORECAST AREA WITH
H850 TEMPERATURE DECREASING FROM YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
INLAND WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WHICH WOULD BE A WELCOME
CHANGE FOR THE RECENT STRING OF HOT TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO CENTRAL WASHINGTON STATE ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL HELP TO REINFORCE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRIER.

THE LATEST GFS RUN CONTINUES WITH A WARMING TREND RETURNING NEXT
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OFFSHORE NUDGES TOWARD THE COAST. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO PERIODS OF THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST
FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS SW OREGON COASTAL MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 20/06Z TAF CYCLE...IFR CIGS ARE MOVING
INLAND WITH MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.
SOME STRATUS WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE WITH AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS IN THE ILLINOIS AND ROGUE VALLEYS BY DAWN WEDNESDAY.
ALL OF THIS WILL CLEAR BACK TO THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...AND THEN RETURN TO COASTAL AND COASTAL VALLEY TERMINALS IN
THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SK


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 PM PDT TUE 19 AUG 2014...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
WITH A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. MODERATE
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF NORTH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS
OFFSHORE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/NSK






000
FXUS66 KMFR 201025
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
325 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO ALL OF COOS COUNTY AND
HAVE SPREAD INTO WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHORT TERM MODELS HINT AT
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. NOT AS CERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD WILL SPREAD INTO THE
ROGUE VALLEY GIVEN THAT AS OF 3AM CLOUDS HAVE NOT FILLED INTO THE
ROSEBURG AREA. HAVE OPTED TO HAVE SCATTERED CLOUDS INTO THE ROGUE
VALLEY THIS MORNING, BUT THE SKY GRIDS MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED
LATER THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS NOW MOVED INTO OUR FORECAST AREA WITH
H850 TEMPERATURE DECREASING FROM YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
INLAND WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WHICH WOULD BE A WELCOME
CHANGE FOR THE RECENT STRING OF HOT TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO CENTRAL WASHINGTON STATE ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL HELP TO REINFORCE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRIER.

THE LATEST GFS RUN CONTINUES WITH A WARMING TREND RETURNING NEXT
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OFFSHORE NUDGES TOWARD THE COAST. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO PERIODS OF THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST
FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS SW OREGON COASTAL MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 20/06Z TAF CYCLE...IFR CIGS ARE MOVING
INLAND WITH MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.
SOME STRATUS WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE WITH AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS IN THE ILLINOIS AND ROGUE VALLEYS BY DAWN WEDNESDAY.
ALL OF THIS WILL CLEAR BACK TO THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...AND THEN RETURN TO COASTAL AND COASTAL VALLEY TERMINALS IN
THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SK


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 PM PDT TUE 19 AUG 2014...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
WITH A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. MODERATE
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF NORTH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS
OFFSHORE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/NSK







000
FXUS66 KPQR 201011
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
310 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE FOR THE INLAND AREAS AND PERSISTENT MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE
AT TIMES ALONG THE NORTH COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...COULD RESULT IN
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH
OREGON CASCADES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATELY STRONG MARINE PUSH
HAS PEAKED AND IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. STRATUS ALONG THE CASCADES IS
BACK BUILDING ACROSS THE VALLEY. GIVEN THE TOPS PUSHING UP TOWARD
THE CASCADE CREST THIS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED LAYER IS 1000 TO 1500 FEET
THICK AND WILL PROBABLY TAKE A WHILE TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING. AS
THEY DO...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL AGAIN INCREASE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AND BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE INLAND AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MUCH BEYOND 20 MPH AND
EVEN THEN ONLY FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS THE MARINE FRONT PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE COAST RANGE GAPS. AS SUCH...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR CLOSER TO THE 3 TO 4 PM TIME FRAME WITH SEA BREEZE LIMITING
FURTHER GAINS THEREAFTER. THE CENTRAL GORGE WILL AGAIN RECEIVE THE
BULK OF THE WINDS TODAY AS THE COLUMBIA BASIN HEATS UP AND DRAWS MORE
AIR THROUGH THE MT HOOD/MT ADAMS GORGE GAP. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW SPOTS AGAIN REACH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
SPEEDS ACROSS THE EXPOSED HIGHER GAP TERRAIN NEAR THE GORGE.

AFTERNOON ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING. WILL ALSO SEE THE MIDLEVEL FLOW
TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP DRY THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS RESULTING IN FEWER MORNING CLOUDS THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.

THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO
SLIDE DOWN THE B.C. COAST AND ACROSS THE PACNW BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE
TREND OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS OF RUNS HAS BEEN TO PUSH A BRIEFLY
CLOSED LOW CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE CASCADES. THERE IS STILL SOME
VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE ACTUAL LOW
TRACK BUT IN GENERAL FEEL GOOD ABOUT WHERE THE EVENING SHIFT ADDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES. LOOKS LIKE ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AND TRY TO MOVE
WEST SOUTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RUN INTO A MORE STABLE
AIR MASS OVERALL ON TOP OF THE ALREADY STABLE LOW LEVEL WEAKENED
MARINE INFLUENCED LOW LEVELS. AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE THREAT
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS FOR THE TIME BEING.
THIS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN AN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDER THREAT WITH
SOME LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. /JBONK

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... NO FURTHER CHANGES.
REST OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST...THE PREVIOUS THREE MODELS (GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX) ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY. BECAUSE OF
HOW FAR OUT THIS FEATURE IS IN THE FORECAST...AND LACK OF AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND MOISTURE CONTENT...I HAVE LEFT POPS TO
CLIMATOLOGY BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE NORTH COAST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. WORST CONDITIONS ARE ON OREGON
COAST WITH MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR STRATUS. CLOUD DECK WITH BASES
4500 TO 5000 FT AGAINST CASCADES BACK BUILDING WESTWARD THIS AM...
REACHING BACK AS FAR AS COAST RANGE BY DAYBREAK. ANOTHER DECK
AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT ALONG COAST WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AM AND
AFFECT INLAND AREAS FROM COWLITZ LOWLANDS TO N WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
AFTER 19Z...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP...BECOMING SCATTERED BY
22Z OR 23Z. ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS MVFR CIGS BACK TO COAST AFT 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH MAIN DECK NEAR 5000 FT THROUGH
21Z. MVFR STRATUS PUSHING UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER WILL ARRIVE
BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. SO WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS OF 2500 FT AND DECK
NEAR 5000 FT THIS AM. CLOUDS BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS ONLY BY 22Z.                       ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC WITH
THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF. THIS MAINTAINS N TO NW WINDS ON
THE COASTAL WATERS. GRADIENTS NOT ALL THAT STRONG...SO WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. NW SWELL OF 4 TO 6 FT CONTINUES...THOUGH
MAY SEE BRIEF BOOSTS TO 7 FT OVER THE OUTER AND FAR S WATERS IN
AFTERNOON/EVENINGS WHEN WINDS PEAK.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 201011
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
310 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE FOR THE INLAND AREAS AND PERSISTENT MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE
AT TIMES ALONG THE NORTH COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...COULD RESULT IN
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH
OREGON CASCADES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATELY STRONG MARINE PUSH
HAS PEAKED AND IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. STRATUS ALONG THE CASCADES IS
BACK BUILDING ACROSS THE VALLEY. GIVEN THE TOPS PUSHING UP TOWARD
THE CASCADE CREST THIS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED LAYER IS 1000 TO 1500 FEET
THICK AND WILL PROBABLY TAKE A WHILE TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING. AS
THEY DO...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL AGAIN INCREASE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AND BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE INLAND AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MUCH BEYOND 20 MPH AND
EVEN THEN ONLY FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS THE MARINE FRONT PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE COAST RANGE GAPS. AS SUCH...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR CLOSER TO THE 3 TO 4 PM TIME FRAME WITH SEA BREEZE LIMITING
FURTHER GAINS THEREAFTER. THE CENTRAL GORGE WILL AGAIN RECEIVE THE
BULK OF THE WINDS TODAY AS THE COLUMBIA BASIN HEATS UP AND DRAWS MORE
AIR THROUGH THE MT HOOD/MT ADAMS GORGE GAP. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW SPOTS AGAIN REACH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
SPEEDS ACROSS THE EXPOSED HIGHER GAP TERRAIN NEAR THE GORGE.

AFTERNOON ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING. WILL ALSO SEE THE MIDLEVEL FLOW
TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP DRY THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS RESULTING IN FEWER MORNING CLOUDS THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.

THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO
SLIDE DOWN THE B.C. COAST AND ACROSS THE PACNW BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE
TREND OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS OF RUNS HAS BEEN TO PUSH A BRIEFLY
CLOSED LOW CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE CASCADES. THERE IS STILL SOME
VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE ACTUAL LOW
TRACK BUT IN GENERAL FEEL GOOD ABOUT WHERE THE EVENING SHIFT ADDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES. LOOKS LIKE ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AND TRY TO MOVE
WEST SOUTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RUN INTO A MORE STABLE
AIR MASS OVERALL ON TOP OF THE ALREADY STABLE LOW LEVEL WEAKENED
MARINE INFLUENCED LOW LEVELS. AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE THREAT
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS FOR THE TIME BEING.
THIS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN AN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDER THREAT WITH
SOME LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. /JBONK

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... NO FURTHER CHANGES.
REST OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST...THE PREVIOUS THREE MODELS (GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX) ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY. BECAUSE OF
HOW FAR OUT THIS FEATURE IS IN THE FORECAST...AND LACK OF AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND MOISTURE CONTENT...I HAVE LEFT POPS TO
CLIMATOLOGY BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE NORTH COAST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. WORST CONDITIONS ARE ON OREGON
COAST WITH MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR STRATUS. CLOUD DECK WITH BASES
4500 TO 5000 FT AGAINST CASCADES BACK BUILDING WESTWARD THIS AM...
REACHING BACK AS FAR AS COAST RANGE BY DAYBREAK. ANOTHER DECK
AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT ALONG COAST WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AM AND
AFFECT INLAND AREAS FROM COWLITZ LOWLANDS TO N WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
AFTER 19Z...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP...BECOMING SCATTERED BY
22Z OR 23Z. ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS MVFR CIGS BACK TO COAST AFT 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH MAIN DECK NEAR 5000 FT THROUGH
21Z. MVFR STRATUS PUSHING UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER WILL ARRIVE
BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. SO WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS OF 2500 FT AND DECK
NEAR 5000 FT THIS AM. CLOUDS BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS ONLY BY 22Z.                       ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC WITH
THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF. THIS MAINTAINS N TO NW WINDS ON
THE COASTAL WATERS. GRADIENTS NOT ALL THAT STRONG...SO WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. NW SWELL OF 4 TO 6 FT CONTINUES...THOUGH
MAY SEE BRIEF BOOSTS TO 7 FT OVER THE OUTER AND FAR S WATERS IN
AFTERNOON/EVENINGS WHEN WINDS PEAK.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 200936
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
336 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE WILL
GRADUALLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PAC NW THROUGH
THURSDAY. FOR TODAY A WEAK IMPULSE WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW IDAHO
ZONES. ENOUGH DRY AIR MAKES INROADS INTO SE OREGON TO LIMIT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE ID/OR BORDER AREA. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL SO BIGGEST THREAT AGAIN TODAY WOULD BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH. DRIER AIRMASS ADVANCES INTO SW
IDAHO ON THURSDAY LEAVING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IDAHO...EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES TODAY
ARE 5-8F DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING INTO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. A CLOSED LOW FORMS LATE THURSDAY OVER WASHINGTON AND
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. INCREASED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS IDAHO
SUGGESTIONS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF
THE REGION ON SATURDAY BUT IS FOLLOWED BUT TWO MORE UPPER TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THESE
TROUGHS WILL BE DRY AND BRING IN RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
COLDEST DAYS BEING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST TUESDAY
LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE BEGINNING
OF A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO AFTER 18Z. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 5-10
KTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AFTER
18Z...WINDS GUSTS TO 35 KTS VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z. WINDS
ALOFT NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 200936
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
336 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE WILL
GRADUALLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PAC NW THROUGH
THURSDAY. FOR TODAY A WEAK IMPULSE WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW IDAHO
ZONES. ENOUGH DRY AIR MAKES INROADS INTO SE OREGON TO LIMIT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE ID/OR BORDER AREA. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL SO BIGGEST THREAT AGAIN TODAY WOULD BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH. DRIER AIRMASS ADVANCES INTO SW
IDAHO ON THURSDAY LEAVING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IDAHO...EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES TODAY
ARE 5-8F DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING INTO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. A CLOSED LOW FORMS LATE THURSDAY OVER WASHINGTON AND
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. INCREASED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS IDAHO
SUGGESTIONS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF
THE REGION ON SATURDAY BUT IS FOLLOWED BUT TWO MORE UPPER TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THESE
TROUGHS WILL BE DRY AND BRING IN RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
COLDEST DAYS BEING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST TUESDAY
LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE BEGINNING
OF A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO AFTER 18Z. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 5-10
KTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AFTER
18Z...WINDS GUSTS TO 35 KTS VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z. WINDS
ALOFT NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS66 KPDT 200925
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE EASTWARD SLIGHTLY CAUSING A NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE CWA.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA THROUGH THAT
TIME PERIOD. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE CWA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSPORT MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE
CWA ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE LEAST LIKELY PLACE TOO RECEIVE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE OVER CENTRAL OREGON ON DAY 3. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OVER
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE GRANDE RONDE
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON FRIDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES DUE TO ENHANCEMENT BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A SERIES OF WEAK
WAVES WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. DAYTIME
HEATING...INSTABILITY...AND LINGERING MOISTURE MAY COMBINE TO
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY A DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT PDT ALW WITH SCT-BKN
080 THROUGH 09Z. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES MAINLY CLEAR
TONIGHT. WINDS DECREASING OVERNIGHT TO 5-15KT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDNESDAY. WINDS 10-25KT. 94

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  81  52  78  53 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  82  58  79  59 /   0  10   0  10
PSC  85  57  81  58 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  82  54  78  54 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  84  55  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  80  56  77  55 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  77  40  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  80  47  76  49 /  10  10   0  10
GCD  79  47  75  50 /  10  10   0  10
DLS  79  54  77  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/76/76





000
FXUS66 KPDT 200925
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE EASTWARD SLIGHTLY CAUSING A NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE CWA.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA THROUGH THAT
TIME PERIOD. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE CWA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSPORT MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE
CWA ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE LEAST LIKELY PLACE TOO RECEIVE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE OVER CENTRAL OREGON ON DAY 3. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OVER
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE GRANDE RONDE
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON FRIDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES DUE TO ENHANCEMENT BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A SERIES OF WEAK
WAVES WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. DAYTIME
HEATING...INSTABILITY...AND LINGERING MOISTURE MAY COMBINE TO
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY A DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT PDT ALW WITH SCT-BKN
080 THROUGH 09Z. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES MAINLY CLEAR
TONIGHT. WINDS DECREASING OVERNIGHT TO 5-15KT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDNESDAY. WINDS 10-25KT. 94

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  81  52  78  53 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  82  58  79  59 /   0  10   0  10
PSC  85  57  81  58 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  82  54  78  54 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  84  55  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  80  56  77  55 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  77  40  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  80  47  76  49 /  10  10   0  10
GCD  79  47  75  50 /  10  10   0  10
DLS  79  54  77  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/76/76






000
FXUS66 KPDT 200538
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING HAS BEEN NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA TOWARD SPOKANE...AND EAST TOWARD BOISE. SHOULD SEE
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS. A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S TO MID 80S. LOCALLY BREEZY WEST WINDS TOMORROW. GFS AND NAM BOTH
BRING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.  94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT PDT ALW WITH SCT-BKN
080 THROUGH 09Z. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES MAINLY CLEAR
TONIGHT. WINDS DECREASING OVERNIGHT TO 5-15KT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDNESDAY. WINDS 10-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 225 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY FALLING APART AS IT DOES WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS
SOME INSTABILITY STILL OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MANLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
JOHN DAY TO LEWISTON. BEHIND THE FRONT AN INCREASING WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT IS BRING SOME COOLER AIR OVER THE CASCADES CREATING SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THESE
WINDS WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN THIS EVENING AND THEN
WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. FORECAST AREA WILL BE LEFT
UNDER A COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. COULD
SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE IDAHO
BORDER. LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHWARD
AND DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY FORMING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL
ALSO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER BASIN ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SEASONABLY STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FROM SATURDAY OVERNIGHT UNTIL NOON ON
SATURDAY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WILL THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES TO PRODUCE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE,
LEEWARD TERRAIN INFLUENCES PRODUCING DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND THUS
SINKING AIR WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS FOR LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL INCREASE
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES LEADING TO AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, WALLOWA COUNTY AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
GRANT COUNTY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL THE UNSTABLE AREAS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A
RESULT OF BEING ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW, THE
CENTER OF WHICH WILL BE OVER IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA. THUS ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE
STEERED BY WINDS ALOFT TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WHICH IS AN
UNUSUAL DIRECTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVEMENT IN OUR REGION. BY
SUNDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING WHILE THE
EAST FLANK OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC PUTS FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
WHICH WILL CREATE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT
IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN GRANT COUNTY EASTWARD INTO IDAHO. ON MONDAY I KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WALLOWA MOUNTAINS, THE ELKHORN MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS THE STRAWBERRY
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE SINKING MOTION AND DRY CONDITIONS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  61  83  54  81 /  10   0   0  10
ALW  64  84  61  82 /  10   0   0  10
PSC  64  87  59  84 /  10   0   0  10
YKM  59  84  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  63  86  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  59  82  57  80 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  50  79  41  76 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  55  82  48  79 /  10  10  10  10
GCD  52  81  48  78 /  10  10  10  10
DLS  62  81  57  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94







000
FXUS66 KPDT 200538
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING HAS BEEN NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA TOWARD SPOKANE...AND EAST TOWARD BOISE. SHOULD SEE
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS. A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S TO MID 80S. LOCALLY BREEZY WEST WINDS TOMORROW. GFS AND NAM BOTH
BRING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.  94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT PDT ALW WITH SCT-BKN
080 THROUGH 09Z. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES MAINLY CLEAR
TONIGHT. WINDS DECREASING OVERNIGHT TO 5-15KT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDNESDAY. WINDS 10-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 225 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY FALLING APART AS IT DOES WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS
SOME INSTABILITY STILL OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MANLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
JOHN DAY TO LEWISTON. BEHIND THE FRONT AN INCREASING WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT IS BRING SOME COOLER AIR OVER THE CASCADES CREATING SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THESE
WINDS WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN THIS EVENING AND THEN
WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. FORECAST AREA WILL BE LEFT
UNDER A COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. COULD
SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE IDAHO
BORDER. LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHWARD
AND DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY FORMING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL
ALSO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER BASIN ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SEASONABLY STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FROM SATURDAY OVERNIGHT UNTIL NOON ON
SATURDAY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WILL THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES TO PRODUCE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE,
LEEWARD TERRAIN INFLUENCES PRODUCING DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND THUS
SINKING AIR WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS FOR LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL INCREASE
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES LEADING TO AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, WALLOWA COUNTY AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
GRANT COUNTY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL THE UNSTABLE AREAS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A
RESULT OF BEING ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW, THE
CENTER OF WHICH WILL BE OVER IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA. THUS ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE
STEERED BY WINDS ALOFT TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WHICH IS AN
UNUSUAL DIRECTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVEMENT IN OUR REGION. BY
SUNDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING WHILE THE
EAST FLANK OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC PUTS FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
WHICH WILL CREATE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT
IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN GRANT COUNTY EASTWARD INTO IDAHO. ON MONDAY I KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WALLOWA MOUNTAINS, THE ELKHORN MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS THE STRAWBERRY
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE SINKING MOTION AND DRY CONDITIONS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  61  83  54  81 /  10   0   0  10
ALW  64  84  61  82 /  10   0   0  10
PSC  64  87  59  84 /  10   0   0  10
YKM  59  84  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  63  86  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  59  82  57  80 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  50  79  41  76 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  55  82  48  79 /  10  10  10  10
GCD  52  81  48  78 /  10  10  10  10
DLS  62  81  57  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94







000
FXUS66 KPDT 200538
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING HAS BEEN NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA TOWARD SPOKANE...AND EAST TOWARD BOISE. SHOULD SEE
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS. A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S TO MID 80S. LOCALLY BREEZY WEST WINDS TOMORROW. GFS AND NAM BOTH
BRING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.  94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT PDT ALW WITH SCT-BKN
080 THROUGH 09Z. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES MAINLY CLEAR
TONIGHT. WINDS DECREASING OVERNIGHT TO 5-15KT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDNESDAY. WINDS 10-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 225 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY FALLING APART AS IT DOES WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS
SOME INSTABILITY STILL OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MANLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
JOHN DAY TO LEWISTON. BEHIND THE FRONT AN INCREASING WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT IS BRING SOME COOLER AIR OVER THE CASCADES CREATING SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THESE
WINDS WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN THIS EVENING AND THEN
WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. FORECAST AREA WILL BE LEFT
UNDER A COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. COULD
SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE IDAHO
BORDER. LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHWARD
AND DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY FORMING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL
ALSO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER BASIN ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SEASONABLY STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FROM SATURDAY OVERNIGHT UNTIL NOON ON
SATURDAY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WILL THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES TO PRODUCE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE,
LEEWARD TERRAIN INFLUENCES PRODUCING DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND THUS
SINKING AIR WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS FOR LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL INCREASE
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES LEADING TO AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, WALLOWA COUNTY AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
GRANT COUNTY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL THE UNSTABLE AREAS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A
RESULT OF BEING ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW, THE
CENTER OF WHICH WILL BE OVER IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA. THUS ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE
STEERED BY WINDS ALOFT TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WHICH IS AN
UNUSUAL DIRECTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVEMENT IN OUR REGION. BY
SUNDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING WHILE THE
EAST FLANK OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC PUTS FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
WHICH WILL CREATE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT
IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN GRANT COUNTY EASTWARD INTO IDAHO. ON MONDAY I KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WALLOWA MOUNTAINS, THE ELKHORN MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS THE STRAWBERRY
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE SINKING MOTION AND DRY CONDITIONS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  61  83  54  81 /  10   0   0  10
ALW  64  84  61  82 /  10   0   0  10
PSC  64  87  59  84 /  10   0   0  10
YKM  59  84  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  63  86  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  59  82  57  80 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  50  79  41  76 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  55  82  48  79 /  10  10  10  10
GCD  52  81  48  78 /  10  10  10  10
DLS  62  81  57  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94







000
FXUS66 KPDT 200538
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING HAS BEEN NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA TOWARD SPOKANE...AND EAST TOWARD BOISE. SHOULD SEE
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS. A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S TO MID 80S. LOCALLY BREEZY WEST WINDS TOMORROW. GFS AND NAM BOTH
BRING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.  94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT PDT ALW WITH SCT-BKN
080 THROUGH 09Z. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES MAINLY CLEAR
TONIGHT. WINDS DECREASING OVERNIGHT TO 5-15KT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDNESDAY. WINDS 10-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 225 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY FALLING APART AS IT DOES WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS
SOME INSTABILITY STILL OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MANLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
JOHN DAY TO LEWISTON. BEHIND THE FRONT AN INCREASING WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT IS BRING SOME COOLER AIR OVER THE CASCADES CREATING SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THESE
WINDS WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN THIS EVENING AND THEN
WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. FORECAST AREA WILL BE LEFT
UNDER A COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. COULD
SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE IDAHO
BORDER. LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHWARD
AND DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY FORMING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL
ALSO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER BASIN ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SEASONABLY STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FROM SATURDAY OVERNIGHT UNTIL NOON ON
SATURDAY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WILL THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES TO PRODUCE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE,
LEEWARD TERRAIN INFLUENCES PRODUCING DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND THUS
SINKING AIR WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS FOR LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL INCREASE
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES LEADING TO AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, WALLOWA COUNTY AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
GRANT COUNTY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL THE UNSTABLE AREAS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A
RESULT OF BEING ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW, THE
CENTER OF WHICH WILL BE OVER IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA. THUS ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE
STEERED BY WINDS ALOFT TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WHICH IS AN
UNUSUAL DIRECTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVEMENT IN OUR REGION. BY
SUNDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING WHILE THE
EAST FLANK OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC PUTS FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
WHICH WILL CREATE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT
IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN GRANT COUNTY EASTWARD INTO IDAHO. ON MONDAY I KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WALLOWA MOUNTAINS, THE ELKHORN MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS THE STRAWBERRY
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE SINKING MOTION AND DRY CONDITIONS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  61  83  54  81 /  10   0   0  10
ALW  64  84  61  82 /  10   0   0  10
PSC  64  87  59  84 /  10   0   0  10
YKM  59  84  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  63  86  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  59  82  57  80 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  50  79  41  76 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  55  82  48  79 /  10  10  10  10
GCD  52  81  48  78 /  10  10  10  10
DLS  62  81  57  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94







000
FXUS66 KPQR 200407
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
907 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE FOR THE INLAND AREAS AND PERSISTENT MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE
AT TIMES ALONG THE NORTH COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...COULD RESULT IN
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH
OREGON CASCADES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FOG PRODUCT THIS EVENING SHOWS MARINE CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO PUSH UP INTO THE COAST RANGE GAPS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG
INITIALLY...BUT AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FURTHER
INLAND...SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS IS BEGINNING TO
FLATTEN INTO A STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 5-7KFT. THE NAM...WRFGFS AND GEM
MODELS ALL INDICATE THESE CLOUDS WILL FILL IN AND EXPAND WESTWARD
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE SKY COVER
FORECAST WAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS IDEA. OFTEN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN HILLSBORO AND CORVALLIS CAN REMAIN CLOUD
FREE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN SO SKY COVER WAS TRENDED DOWN IN THIS
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEVERTHELESS...A 10MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLIER THIS EVENING BETWEEN ASTORIA AND PENDLETON
AND CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THE CLOUDIER SOLUTIONS ARE
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

MODELS LOOSELY AGREE A CLOSED LOW WILL MEANDER SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST FRIDAY. DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY OF SOUTH
WASHINGTON...ON FRIDAY...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE PORTLAND METRO AREA WILL REMAIN
CAPPED...GIVEN THE MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS BRIEFLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES COULD DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SUBURBS OF PORTLAND FRIDAY EVENING IN A PATTERN SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR TO LATE MAY 2012. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT DIGEST THE FULL
SUITE OF 00Z MODELS BEFORE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST ARE
MADE.

OTHERWISE...LARGE SCALE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...BRINGING
PERIODS OF MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE TEMPERATURES CLIMB SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND FOR
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
DGEX ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE BETWEEN
1000-500 MB AS WELL AS 1000-700 MB WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM
THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTHERN CASCADES IN OUR AREA. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE PREVIOUS THREE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY. BECAUSE OF HOW FAR OUT
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE FORECAST...AND LACK OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS ON TIMING AND MOISTURE CONTENT...I HAVE LEFT POPS TO
CLIMATOLOGY BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE NORTH COAST. -MCCOY


&&

.AVIATION...A BREAK IN THE MARINE STRATUS OCCURRED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MUCH OF THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON
COAST REMAINS VFR AT CURRENT. HOWEVER IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS HAVE
NOW PUSHED BACK INTO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT MVFR/IFR
STRATUS
TO SURGE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL LOCATIONS LATER THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS ALSO CURRENTLY VFR IN THE INTERIOR...BUT
EXPECT THE MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH UP THE COLUMBIA OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KPDX AND KTTD BY AROUND 12Z. AT
THE SAME TIME...A CLOUD DECK WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND BACK BUILDING TO THE WEST OVER THE VALLEY TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS DECK TO BE VFR AT AROUND 5000 FT. ANY
INTERIOR MVFR STRATUS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 18Z. EXPECT THE
COASTAL SITES TO ALSO SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT SOME POINT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR IN CONTROL THIS EVENING AND MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MVFR STRATUS PUSHING UP THE COLUMBIA WILL
LIKELY REACH THE TERMINAL AROUND 12Z. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 17Z OR 18Z. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY SEAS TODAY HAVE CALMED DOWN THIS EVENING. SEAS
CURRENTLY SIT AT 5 TO 6 FT AND THE PRIMARILY SWELL PERIOD HAS
INCREASED TO ABOUT 11 SEC...UP FROM THE 7 TO 8 SEC EARLIER. WINDS
ALSO FAIRLY LIGHT...AT NW 5 TO 10 KT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE
IN THE PATTERN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NE
PAC...BUT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AS W-NW SWELL DECREASES
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 200407
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
907 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE FOR THE INLAND AREAS AND PERSISTENT MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE
AT TIMES ALONG THE NORTH COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...COULD RESULT IN
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH
OREGON CASCADES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FOG PRODUCT THIS EVENING SHOWS MARINE CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO PUSH UP INTO THE COAST RANGE GAPS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG
INITIALLY...BUT AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FURTHER
INLAND...SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS IS BEGINNING TO
FLATTEN INTO A STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 5-7KFT. THE NAM...WRFGFS AND GEM
MODELS ALL INDICATE THESE CLOUDS WILL FILL IN AND EXPAND WESTWARD
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE SKY COVER
FORECAST WAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS IDEA. OFTEN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN HILLSBORO AND CORVALLIS CAN REMAIN CLOUD
FREE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN SO SKY COVER WAS TRENDED DOWN IN THIS
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEVERTHELESS...A 10MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLIER THIS EVENING BETWEEN ASTORIA AND PENDLETON
AND CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THE CLOUDIER SOLUTIONS ARE
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

MODELS LOOSELY AGREE A CLOSED LOW WILL MEANDER SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST FRIDAY. DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY OF SOUTH
WASHINGTON...ON FRIDAY...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE PORTLAND METRO AREA WILL REMAIN
CAPPED...GIVEN THE MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS BRIEFLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES COULD DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SUBURBS OF PORTLAND FRIDAY EVENING IN A PATTERN SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR TO LATE MAY 2012. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT DIGEST THE FULL
SUITE OF 00Z MODELS BEFORE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST ARE
MADE.

OTHERWISE...LARGE SCALE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...BRINGING
PERIODS OF MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE TEMPERATURES CLIMB SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND FOR
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
DGEX ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE BETWEEN
1000-500 MB AS WELL AS 1000-700 MB WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM
THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTHERN CASCADES IN OUR AREA. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE PREVIOUS THREE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY. BECAUSE OF HOW FAR OUT
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE FORECAST...AND LACK OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS ON TIMING AND MOISTURE CONTENT...I HAVE LEFT POPS TO
CLIMATOLOGY BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE NORTH COAST. -MCCOY


&&

.AVIATION...A BREAK IN THE MARINE STRATUS OCCURRED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MUCH OF THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON
COAST REMAINS VFR AT CURRENT. HOWEVER IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS HAVE
NOW PUSHED BACK INTO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT MVFR/IFR
STRATUS
TO SURGE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL LOCATIONS LATER THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS ALSO CURRENTLY VFR IN THE INTERIOR...BUT
EXPECT THE MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH UP THE COLUMBIA OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KPDX AND KTTD BY AROUND 12Z. AT
THE SAME TIME...A CLOUD DECK WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND BACK BUILDING TO THE WEST OVER THE VALLEY TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS DECK TO BE VFR AT AROUND 5000 FT. ANY
INTERIOR MVFR STRATUS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 18Z. EXPECT THE
COASTAL SITES TO ALSO SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT SOME POINT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR IN CONTROL THIS EVENING AND MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MVFR STRATUS PUSHING UP THE COLUMBIA WILL
LIKELY REACH THE TERMINAL AROUND 12Z. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 17Z OR 18Z. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY SEAS TODAY HAVE CALMED DOWN THIS EVENING. SEAS
CURRENTLY SIT AT 5 TO 6 FT AND THE PRIMARILY SWELL PERIOD HAS
INCREASED TO ABOUT 11 SEC...UP FROM THE 7 TO 8 SEC EARLIER. WINDS
ALSO FAIRLY LIGHT...AT NW 5 TO 10 KT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE
IN THE PATTERN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NE
PAC...BUT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AS W-NW SWELL DECREASES
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 200309
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
809 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THIS DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS
DUE TO A COOL UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TROUGH IS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AND
IS TAKING WITH IT ANY LINGERING INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORMS
THAT ARE ONGOING OVER SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND MODOC
COUNTIES WILL DISSIPATE SOON...AND NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT OR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AT LEAST.

A STRONG MARINE STRATUS PUSH INLAND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL MEAN MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST OREGON WEST OF
THE CASCADES. IT`S ALWAYS A CHALLENGE FORECASTING WHETHER MARINE
STRATUS MAKES IT INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY IN AUGUST...AND THIS IS NO
DIFFERENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME CLOUDS TO MAKE
THEIR WAY INTO THE VALLEY BY MORNING AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
BASED ON THE LATEST RAP13 MODEL OUTPUT...WHICH WE`LL FAVOR OVER
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN THIS SITUATION. GIVEN SUCH A STRONG PUSH
EXPECTED...ROSEBURG AND THE UMPQUA BASIN SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. BEHIND THE TROUGH AND WITH A GOOD
ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER TONIGHT AND A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON A
POTENTIAL WARMING A DRYING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 20/00Z TAF CYCLE...IFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED AT THE COAST AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED MOVE INLAND WITH MVFR
TO LOCAL IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE UMPQUA BASIN OVERNIGHT. SOME
STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO MAKE IT OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE WITH AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS IN THE ILLINOIS AND ROGUE VALLEYS BY DAWN WEDNESDAY.
ALL OF THIS WILL CLEAR BACK TO THE COAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 PM PDT TUE 19 AUG 2014...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF NORTH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS
OFFSHORE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BLANKET THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...NEGATIVELY AFFECTING CURRENT FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS.
HOWEVER...A COUPLE WEATHER ELEMENTS THAT MAY LIMIT FIRE BEHAVIOR
ARE INCREASING HUMIDITIES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND INCREASING
STABILITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL LIMIT A FIRE`S ABILITY
TO BE PLUME-DOMINATED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...OUR WEATHER PATTERN
IS IN THE MIDST OF A NOTICEABLE CHANGE. A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS IN
PLACE FROM THE COAST ACROSS THE COASTAL STATES WHILE THE UPPER
LOW THAT WAS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS MOVED TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN ITS WAKE THERE IS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THE TROUGH WITH COOLER AIR IS ALSO INDUCING BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS.

THERE WILL BE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...SPREADING INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS THIS
EVENING AND THEN THE UMPQUA BASIN AND LOCALLY SPILLING OVER THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE INTO JACKSON AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING LIKELY UPSLOPE WIND FORCED STRATUS NEAR
ASHLAND TOWARD SUNRISE. IT IS NOT A BIG SURPRISE, BUT THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN HARMONY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE JACKSON AND
JOSEPHINE COUNTY LOW CLOUDS NOR THE EXPECTED CONDITION VERY NEAR
TO AND INCLUDING BROOKINGS WHERE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE A SLIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT FOR DOWNSLOPE DRYING.
THE 12Z GFS AND NAM BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY FIELDS EACH INDICATED
THE STRATUS WOULD STAY OUT OF BROOKINGS WHILE THE NAM STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THE STRATUS WOULD NOT HAVE CLEARED TODAY AND
WOULD LOWER AND THICKEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THREE THINGS FOR CERTAIN
ARE THAT IT WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL, THE AIR MASS WILL STABILIZE, AND IT WILL BE
BREEZY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
AT THE COAST AND ON THE EAST SIDE.

CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RESEMBLE THOSE OF WEDNESDAY
AS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.

THIS TROUGH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OREGON ON FRIDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING AND SLIGHT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
INSTABILITY. NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE NAM MODELS INDICATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS TROUGH TO WORK WITH. THERE
IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH OR UNDER THE TROUGH. THUS, I HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF A
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FRIDAY FORECAST. IF THE
PICTURE SHOULD CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS, A PLAUSIBLE WORST
CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE LIKELY CHARACTER OF THE
LONG TERM IS A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE
CENTERED OFFSHORE. THE 12Z ECMWF TRACKS THE RIDGE INTO THE WEST
COAST WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE RIDGE AXIS OFFSHORE. THUS, THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WHILE THE GFS
SOLUTION WOULD HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES MERELY MAINTAINING A
CONSISTENT FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. I LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS AS THE ECMWF SEEMS TOO PROGRESSIVE. IN BOTH SCENARIOS, THE
LONG TERM WOULD HAVE A STABLE AIR MASS OVER OUR AREA.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

NSK/DW/TRW






000
FXUS66 KMFR 200309
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
809 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THIS DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS
DUE TO A COOL UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TROUGH IS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AND
IS TAKING WITH IT ANY LINGERING INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORMS
THAT ARE ONGOING OVER SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND MODOC
COUNTIES WILL DISSIPATE SOON...AND NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT OR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AT LEAST.

A STRONG MARINE STRATUS PUSH INLAND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL MEAN MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST OREGON WEST OF
THE CASCADES. IT`S ALWAYS A CHALLENGE FORECASTING WHETHER MARINE
STRATUS MAKES IT INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY IN AUGUST...AND THIS IS NO
DIFFERENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME CLOUDS TO MAKE
THEIR WAY INTO THE VALLEY BY MORNING AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
BASED ON THE LATEST RAP13 MODEL OUTPUT...WHICH WE`LL FAVOR OVER
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN THIS SITUATION. GIVEN SUCH A STRONG PUSH
EXPECTED...ROSEBURG AND THE UMPQUA BASIN SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. BEHIND THE TROUGH AND WITH A GOOD
ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER TONIGHT AND A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON A
POTENTIAL WARMING A DRYING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 20/00Z TAF CYCLE...IFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED AT THE COAST AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED MOVE INLAND WITH MVFR
TO LOCAL IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE UMPQUA BASIN OVERNIGHT. SOME
STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO MAKE IT OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE WITH AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS IN THE ILLINOIS AND ROGUE VALLEYS BY DAWN WEDNESDAY.
ALL OF THIS WILL CLEAR BACK TO THE COAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 PM PDT TUE 19 AUG 2014...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF NORTH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS
OFFSHORE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BLANKET THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...NEGATIVELY AFFECTING CURRENT FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS.
HOWEVER...A COUPLE WEATHER ELEMENTS THAT MAY LIMIT FIRE BEHAVIOR
ARE INCREASING HUMIDITIES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND INCREASING
STABILITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL LIMIT A FIRE`S ABILITY
TO BE PLUME-DOMINATED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...OUR WEATHER PATTERN
IS IN THE MIDST OF A NOTICEABLE CHANGE. A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS IN
PLACE FROM THE COAST ACROSS THE COASTAL STATES WHILE THE UPPER
LOW THAT WAS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS MOVED TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN ITS WAKE THERE IS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THE TROUGH WITH COOLER AIR IS ALSO INDUCING BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS.

THERE WILL BE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...SPREADING INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS THIS
EVENING AND THEN THE UMPQUA BASIN AND LOCALLY SPILLING OVER THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE INTO JACKSON AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING LIKELY UPSLOPE WIND FORCED STRATUS NEAR
ASHLAND TOWARD SUNRISE. IT IS NOT A BIG SURPRISE, BUT THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN HARMONY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE JACKSON AND
JOSEPHINE COUNTY LOW CLOUDS NOR THE EXPECTED CONDITION VERY NEAR
TO AND INCLUDING BROOKINGS WHERE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE A SLIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT FOR DOWNSLOPE DRYING.
THE 12Z GFS AND NAM BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY FIELDS EACH INDICATED
THE STRATUS WOULD STAY OUT OF BROOKINGS WHILE THE NAM STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THE STRATUS WOULD NOT HAVE CLEARED TODAY AND
WOULD LOWER AND THICKEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THREE THINGS FOR CERTAIN
ARE THAT IT WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL, THE AIR MASS WILL STABILIZE, AND IT WILL BE
BREEZY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
AT THE COAST AND ON THE EAST SIDE.

CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RESEMBLE THOSE OF WEDNESDAY
AS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.

THIS TROUGH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OREGON ON FRIDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING AND SLIGHT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
INSTABILITY. NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE NAM MODELS INDICATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS TROUGH TO WORK WITH. THERE
IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH OR UNDER THE TROUGH. THUS, I HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF A
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FRIDAY FORECAST. IF THE
PICTURE SHOULD CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS, A PLAUSIBLE WORST
CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE LIKELY CHARACTER OF THE
LONG TERM IS A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE
CENTERED OFFSHORE. THE 12Z ECMWF TRACKS THE RIDGE INTO THE WEST
COAST WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE RIDGE AXIS OFFSHORE. THUS, THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WHILE THE GFS
SOLUTION WOULD HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES MERELY MAINTAINING A
CONSISTENT FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. I LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS AS THE ECMWF SEEMS TOO PROGRESSIVE. IN BOTH SCENARIOS, THE
LONG TERM WOULD HAVE A STABLE AIR MASS OVER OUR AREA.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

NSK/DW/TRW







000
FXUS65 KBOI 200259
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
859 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN OREGON AND OVER THE
OWYHEES SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE BOUNDARY HAS WEAKENED BUT MAY STILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER. THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DECREASED...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN SW IDAHO AND PORTIONS OF SE OREGON.
DRIER STABLE AIR HAS ENTERED BAKER COUNTY AND NORTHERN HARNEY
COUNTY. WILL UPDATE TO END SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE
AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR SW IDAHO AS THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
WORK INTO SE OREGON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...EXCEPT TIL 07Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
BOISE MOUNTAINS AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO
AFTER 20Z. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KTS AFTER 18Z...WINDS GUSTS TO 35 KTS VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
21Z. WINDS ALOFT NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO SHOWS MOISTURE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
..ESPECIALLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTH OF JORDAN VALLEY TOWARDS
CENTRAL IDAHO SOUTH OF ATLANTA. THUNDERSTORM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH GUSTY WINDS 35 MPH TO LOCALLY 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL IS EXPECT
ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO... ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. EMBEDDED
IMPULSE OVER N/CENTRAL NV LOOKS TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO
OVERNIGHT SO NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOO. W/V ALSO SHOWS THE
WESTERN AXIS OF THE FIRST IMPULSE NEAR THE CASCADE CREST WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO PIVOT TO ALONG A BURNS-MCCALL AXIS WED. MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING DRYING AND STABILIZATION BEHIND IT TO ABOUT THE NW 2/3
OR 3/4 OF THE AREA. BY THURSDAY MORE DRY COOL AIR DROPS INTO THE
TROUGH OVER THE NW 3/4 OF THE AREA. A SURFACE LOW IS NOW EXPECTED
TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND STALL A WAVY TROUGH AXIS OR FRONT OVER
S-CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT TWO DAYS COULD SEE AROUND
ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS
COUNTY...THOUGH MODELS RANGE UP TO AROUND 0.6 INCHES. HIGHS WILL
BE COOLING OFF IN THIS PATTERN WHILE LOWS WILL VARY FROM MILD
UNDER CLOUDS TO MUCH COOLER WITH DRY AIR ACROSS SE OREGON TO THE
CENTRAL ID MTNS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE POPS AND
QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
AND RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY GIVE ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WILL BE REINFORCED BY A
SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OUT OF B.C. MAINTAINING THE
RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING OUR
AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANIED BY GRADUAL WARMING AND
DRYING.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
A CONTINUED DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SITTING OVER OUR REGION DUE TO A
BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS PATTERN AND MOST OF OUR CWA WILL BE PRECIPITATION
FREE EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NE WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED
BY HIGH MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY BROUGHT IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....RD
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT/AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 200259
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
859 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN OREGON AND OVER THE
OWYHEES SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE BOUNDARY HAS WEAKENED BUT MAY STILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER. THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DECREASED...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN SW IDAHO AND PORTIONS OF SE OREGON.
DRIER STABLE AIR HAS ENTERED BAKER COUNTY AND NORTHERN HARNEY
COUNTY. WILL UPDATE TO END SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE
AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR SW IDAHO AS THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
WORK INTO SE OREGON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...EXCEPT TIL 07Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
BOISE MOUNTAINS AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO
AFTER 20Z. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KTS AFTER 18Z...WINDS GUSTS TO 35 KTS VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
21Z. WINDS ALOFT NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO SHOWS MOISTURE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
..ESPECIALLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTH OF JORDAN VALLEY TOWARDS
CENTRAL IDAHO SOUTH OF ATLANTA. THUNDERSTORM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH GUSTY WINDS 35 MPH TO LOCALLY 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL IS EXPECT
ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO... ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. EMBEDDED
IMPULSE OVER N/CENTRAL NV LOOKS TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO
OVERNIGHT SO NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOO. W/V ALSO SHOWS THE
WESTERN AXIS OF THE FIRST IMPULSE NEAR THE CASCADE CREST WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO PIVOT TO ALONG A BURNS-MCCALL AXIS WED. MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING DRYING AND STABILIZATION BEHIND IT TO ABOUT THE NW 2/3
OR 3/4 OF THE AREA. BY THURSDAY MORE DRY COOL AIR DROPS INTO THE
TROUGH OVER THE NW 3/4 OF THE AREA. A SURFACE LOW IS NOW EXPECTED
TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND STALL A WAVY TROUGH AXIS OR FRONT OVER
S-CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT TWO DAYS COULD SEE AROUND
ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS
COUNTY...THOUGH MODELS RANGE UP TO AROUND 0.6 INCHES. HIGHS WILL
BE COOLING OFF IN THIS PATTERN WHILE LOWS WILL VARY FROM MILD
UNDER CLOUDS TO MUCH COOLER WITH DRY AIR ACROSS SE OREGON TO THE
CENTRAL ID MTNS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE POPS AND
QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
AND RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY GIVE ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WILL BE REINFORCED BY A
SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OUT OF B.C. MAINTAINING THE
RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING OUR
AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANIED BY GRADUAL WARMING AND
DRYING.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
A CONTINUED DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SITTING OVER OUR REGION DUE TO A
BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS PATTERN AND MOST OF OUR CWA WILL BE PRECIPITATION
FREE EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NE WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED
BY HIGH MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY BROUGHT IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....RD
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT/AB




000
FXUS66 KPDT 200258
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING HAS BEEN NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA TOWARD SPOKANE...AND EAST TOWARD BOISE. SHOULD SEE
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS. A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S TO MID 80S. LOCALLY BREEZY WEST WINDS TOMORROW. GFS AND NAM BOTH
BRING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.  94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 225 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY FALLING APART AS IT DOES WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS
SOME INSTABILITY STILL OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MANLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
JOHN DAY TO LEWISTON. BEHIND THE FRONT AN INCREASING WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT IS BRING SOME COOLER AIR OVER THE CASCADES CREATING SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THESE
WINDS WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN THIS EVENING AND THEN
WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. FORECAST AREA WILL BE LEFT
UNDER A COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. COULD
SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE IDAHO
BORDER. LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHWARD
AND DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY FORMING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL
ALSO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER BASIN ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SEASONABLY STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FROM SATURDAY OVERNIGHT UNTIL NOON ON
SATURDAY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WILL THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES TO PRODUCE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE,
LEEWARD TERRAIN INFLUENCES PRODUCING DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND THUS
SINKING AIR WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS FOR LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL INCREASE
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES LEADING TO AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, WALLOWA COUNTY AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
GRANT COUNTY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL THE UNSTABLE AREAS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A
RESULT OF BEING ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW, THE
CENTER OF WHICH WILL BE OVER IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA. THUS ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE
STEERED BY WINDS ALOFT TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WHICH IS AN
UNUSUAL DIRECTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVEMENT IN OUR REGION. BY
SUNDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING WHILE THE
EAST FLANK OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC PUTS FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
WHICH WILL CREATE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT
IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN GRANT COUNTY EASTWARD INTO IDAHO. ON MONDAY I KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WALLOWA MOUNTAINS, THE ELKHORN MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS THE STRAWBERRY
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE SINKING MOTION AND DRY CONDITIONS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  POLAN

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AMORPHOUS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS AOA 20000 FT AGL. TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE
WINDS OF 15-25 KTS INTO THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY WINDS DECREASING
LATE THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS DECREASE WITH CLEARING SKIES
AFTER 03Z. HOWEVER, UPSLOPE WINDS ALOFT ALONG THE WEST FACING SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS WILL GENERATE CLOUDS AT 7000-10000 FT
AGL THIS EVENING AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES
BY 10Z-12Z/20TH.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  61  83  54  81 /  10   0   0  10
ALW  64  84  61  82 /  10   0   0  10
PSC  64  87  59  84 /  10   0   0  10
YKM  59  84  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  63  86  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  59  82  57  80 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  50  79  41  76 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  55  82  48  79 /  10  10  10  10
GCD  52  81  48  78 /  10  10  10  10
DLS  62  81  57  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94





000
FXUS66 KMFR 192213
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
313 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...OUR WEATHER PATTERN
IS IN THE MIDST OF A NOTICEABLE CHANGE. A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS IN
PLACE FROM THE COAST ACROSS THE COASTAL STATES WHILE THEY UPPER
LOW THAT WAS LARGELY RESPONSIBILE FOR YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS MOVED TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN ITS WAKE THERE IS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THE TROUGH WITH COOLER AIR IS ALSO INDUCING BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS.

THERE WILL BE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...SPREADING INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS THIS
EVENING AND THEN THE UMPQUA BASIN AND LOCALLY SPILLING OVER THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE INTO JACKSON AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING LIKELY UPSLOPE WIND FORCED STRATUS NEAR
ASHLAND TOWARD SUNRISE. IT IS NOT A BIG SURPRISE, BUT THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN HARMONY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE JACKSON AND
JOSEPHINE COUNTY LOW CLOUDS NOR THE EXPECTED CONDITION VERY NEAR
TO AND INCLUDING BROOKINGS WHERE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE A SLIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT FOR DOWNSLOPE DRYING.
THE 12Z GFS AND NAM BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY FIELDS EACH INDICATED
THE STRATUS WOULD STAY OUT OF BROOKINGS WHILE THE NAM STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THE STRATUS WOULD NOT HAVE CLEARED TODAY AND
WOULD LOWER AND THICKEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THREE THINGS FOR CERTAIN
ARE THAT IT WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL, THE AIR MASS WILL STABILIZE, AND IT WILL BE
BREEZY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
AT THE COAST AND ON THE EAST SIDE.

CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RESEMBLE THOSE OF WEDNESDAY
AS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.

THIS TROUGH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OREGON ON FRIDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING AND SLIGHT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
INSTABILITY. NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE NAM MODELS INDICATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS TROUGH TO WORK WITH. THERE
IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH OR UNDER THE TROUGH. THUS, I HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF A
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FRIDAY FORECAST. IF THE
PICTURE SHOULD CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS, A PLAUSIBLE WORST
CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE LIKELY CHARACTER OF THE
LONG TERM IS A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE
CENTERED OFFSHORE. THE 12Z ECMWF TRACKS THE RIDGE INTO THE WEST
COAST WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE RIDGE AXIS OFFSHORE. THUS, THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WHILE THE GFS
SOLUTION WOULD HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES MERELY MAINTAINING A
CONSISTENT FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. I LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS AS THE ECMWF SEEMS TOO PROGRESSIVE. IN BOTH SCENARIOS, THE
LONG TERM WOULD HAVE A STABLE AIR MASS OVER OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE COASTAL VALLEYS...AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST TORDAY
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND NEAR BROOKINGS. THERE MAY BE BRIEF CLEARING
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH IFR/MVFR BECOMING WIDESPREAD ON THE COAST
EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY FOG  TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF
MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
NORTHERN CALIFRONIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. A MARINE PUSH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS INTO THE UMPQUA LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED MVFR MAY SPREAD INTO THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE
VALLEYS TONGIHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1030 AM PDT TUE 19 AUG 2014...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF NORTH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS
OFFSHORE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. SPILDE/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/CC/TRW






000
FXUS66 KMFR 192213
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
313 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...OUR WEATHER PATTERN
IS IN THE MIDST OF A NOTICEABLE CHANGE. A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS IN
PLACE FROM THE COAST ACROSS THE COASTAL STATES WHILE THEY UPPER
LOW THAT WAS LARGELY RESPONSIBILE FOR YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS MOVED TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN ITS WAKE THERE IS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THE TROUGH WITH COOLER AIR IS ALSO INDUCING BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS.

THERE WILL BE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...SPREADING INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS THIS
EVENING AND THEN THE UMPQUA BASIN AND LOCALLY SPILLING OVER THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE INTO JACKSON AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING LIKELY UPSLOPE WIND FORCED STRATUS NEAR
ASHLAND TOWARD SUNRISE. IT IS NOT A BIG SURPRISE, BUT THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN HARMONY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE JACKSON AND
JOSEPHINE COUNTY LOW CLOUDS NOR THE EXPECTED CONDITION VERY NEAR
TO AND INCLUDING BROOKINGS WHERE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE A SLIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT FOR DOWNSLOPE DRYING.
THE 12Z GFS AND NAM BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY FIELDS EACH INDICATED
THE STRATUS WOULD STAY OUT OF BROOKINGS WHILE THE NAM STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THE STRATUS WOULD NOT HAVE CLEARED TODAY AND
WOULD LOWER AND THICKEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THREE THINGS FOR CERTAIN
ARE THAT IT WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL, THE AIR MASS WILL STABILIZE, AND IT WILL BE
BREEZY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
AT THE COAST AND ON THE EAST SIDE.

CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RESEMBLE THOSE OF WEDNESDAY
AS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.

THIS TROUGH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OREGON ON FRIDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING AND SLIGHT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
INSTABILITY. NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE NAM MODELS INDICATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS TROUGH TO WORK WITH. THERE
IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH OR UNDER THE TROUGH. THUS, I HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF A
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FRIDAY FORECAST. IF THE
PICTURE SHOULD CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS, A PLAUSIBLE WORST
CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE LIKELY CHARACTER OF THE
LONG TERM IS A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE
CENTERED OFFSHORE. THE 12Z ECMWF TRACKS THE RIDGE INTO THE WEST
COAST WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE RIDGE AXIS OFFSHORE. THUS, THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WHILE THE GFS
SOLUTION WOULD HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES MERELY MAINTAINING A
CONSISTENT FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. I LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS AS THE ECMWF SEEMS TOO PROGRESSIVE. IN BOTH SCENARIOS, THE
LONG TERM WOULD HAVE A STABLE AIR MASS OVER OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE COASTAL VALLEYS...AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST TORDAY
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND NEAR BROOKINGS. THERE MAY BE BRIEF CLEARING
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH IFR/MVFR BECOMING WIDESPREAD ON THE COAST
EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY FOG  TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF
MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
NORTHERN CALIFRONIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. A MARINE PUSH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS INTO THE UMPQUA LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED MVFR MAY SPREAD INTO THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE
VALLEYS TONGIHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1030 AM PDT TUE 19 AUG 2014...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF NORTH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS
OFFSHORE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. SPILDE/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/CC/TRW







000
FXUS66 KPQR 192134
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE FOR THE INLAND AREAS AND PERSISTENT MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE
AT TIMES ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATION NETWORK THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A STUBBORN LAYER OF STRATUS
REMAINING OVER THE NORTH COAST AREA. THE STRATUS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST HAS MOVED A FEW MILES OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE COASTAL STRIP THIS EVENING AND MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER TO KELSO AND NEAR THE PORTLAND AREA WED MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS INCREASED ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE GORGE THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING.

EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS LEAVES THE PACNW UNDER
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A PATTERN OF COASTAL MARINE
STRATUS AND PERIODS OF PATCHY DRIZZLE. INLAND AREAS WILL
HAVE MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS OVER THE INLAND AREAS INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AFTER
THURSDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN ACROSS THE PACNW AND IT WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.  I ADDED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH WA AND OREGON CASCADES FOR FRIDAY IN
ANTICIPATION OF THIS SYSTEM.  TW

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
DGEX ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE BETWEEN
1000-500 MB AS WELL AS 1000-700 MB WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM
THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTHERN CASCADES IN OUR AREA. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE PREVIOUS THREE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY. BECAUSE OF HOW FAR OUT
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE FORECAST...AND LACK OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS ON TIMING AND MOISTURE CONTENT...I HAVE LEFT POPS TO
CLIMATOLOGY BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE NORTH COAST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST WITH
CENTRAL OREGON BREAKING OUT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN EARLY DROP TO IFR VIS BEFORE SUNSET. INLAND AREAS
REMAIN VFR WITH EVEN HIGH CLOUDS HAVING CLEARED OUT. MARINE
STRATUS PUSH LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THIS MORNING BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES MVFR CIGS MAY REMAIN NORTH OF SPB/PDX.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW MVFR CIGS
PUSHING UP COLUMBIA RIVER WILL SPREAD INTO CLARK COUNTY BY 12Z
THEN POSSIBLY SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS SHOWING A WEAKER PUSH THAN
THEY DID EARLIER TODAY...SO NOT CERTAIN THAT CIGS WILL REACH PDX
TERMINAL BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SCT AT AROUND 2000 FT AFTER 13Z.
BOWEN/ROCKEY

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN STEEP BUT BUOYS SHOW PERIODS HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED TO 8 SECONDS...SO 00Z END TIME LOOKS GOOD FOR SCA. WINDS
GENERALLY REMAIN NW 10 TO 15 KT TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC...BUT
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AS W-NW SWELL DECREASES LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 192134
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE FOR THE INLAND AREAS AND PERSISTENT MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE
AT TIMES ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATION NETWORK THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A STUBBORN LAYER OF STRATUS
REMAINING OVER THE NORTH COAST AREA. THE STRATUS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST HAS MOVED A FEW MILES OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE COASTAL STRIP THIS EVENING AND MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER TO KELSO AND NEAR THE PORTLAND AREA WED MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS INCREASED ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE GORGE THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING.

EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS LEAVES THE PACNW UNDER
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A PATTERN OF COASTAL MARINE
STRATUS AND PERIODS OF PATCHY DRIZZLE. INLAND AREAS WILL
HAVE MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS OVER THE INLAND AREAS INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AFTER
THURSDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN ACROSS THE PACNW AND IT WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.  I ADDED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH WA AND OREGON CASCADES FOR FRIDAY IN
ANTICIPATION OF THIS SYSTEM.  TW

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
DGEX ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE BETWEEN
1000-500 MB AS WELL AS 1000-700 MB WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM
THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTHERN CASCADES IN OUR AREA. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE PREVIOUS THREE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY. BECAUSE OF HOW FAR OUT
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE FORECAST...AND LACK OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS ON TIMING AND MOISTURE CONTENT...I HAVE LEFT POPS TO
CLIMATOLOGY BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE NORTH COAST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST WITH
CENTRAL OREGON BREAKING OUT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN EARLY DROP TO IFR VIS BEFORE SUNSET. INLAND AREAS
REMAIN VFR WITH EVEN HIGH CLOUDS HAVING CLEARED OUT. MARINE
STRATUS PUSH LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THIS MORNING BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES MVFR CIGS MAY REMAIN NORTH OF SPB/PDX.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW MVFR CIGS
PUSHING UP COLUMBIA RIVER WILL SPREAD INTO CLARK COUNTY BY 12Z
THEN POSSIBLY SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS SHOWING A WEAKER PUSH THAN
THEY DID EARLIER TODAY...SO NOT CERTAIN THAT CIGS WILL REACH PDX
TERMINAL BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SCT AT AROUND 2000 FT AFTER 13Z.
BOWEN/ROCKEY

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN STEEP BUT BUOYS SHOW PERIODS HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED TO 8 SECONDS...SO 00Z END TIME LOOKS GOOD FOR SCA. WINDS
GENERALLY REMAIN NW 10 TO 15 KT TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC...BUT
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AS W-NW SWELL DECREASES LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 192127
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY FALLING APART AS IT DOES WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS
SOME INSTABILITY STILL OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MANLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
JOHN DAY TO LEWISTON. BEHIND THE FRONT AN INCREASING WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT IS BRING SOME COOLER AIR OVER THE CASCADES CREATING SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THESE
WINDS WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN THIS EVENING AND THEN
WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. FORECAST AREA WILL BE LEFT
UNDER A COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. COULD
SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE IDAHO
BORDER. LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHWARD
AND DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY FORMING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL
ALSO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER BASIN ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SEASONABLY STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FROM SATURDAY OVERNIGHT UNTIL NOON ON
SATURDAY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WILL THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES TO PRODUCE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE,
LEEWARD TERRAIN INFLUENCES PRODUCING DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND THUS
SINKING AIR WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS FOR LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL INCREASE
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES LEADING TO AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, WALLOWA COUNTY AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
GRANT COUNTY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL THE UNSTABLE AREAS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A
RESULT OF BEING ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW, THE
CENTER OF WHICH WILL BE OVER IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA. THUS ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE
STEERED BY WINDS ALOFT TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WHICH IS AN
UNUSUAL DIRECTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVEMENT IN OUR REGION. BY
SUNDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING WHILE THE
EAST FLANK OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC PUTS FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
WHICH WILL CREATE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT
IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN GRANT COUNTY EASTWARD INTO IDAHO. ON MONDAY I KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WALLOWA MOUNTAINS, THE ELKHORN MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS THE STRAWBERRY
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE SINKING MOTION AND DRY CONDITIONS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  POLAN



&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AMORPHOUS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS AOA 20000 FT AGL. TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE
WINDS OF 15-25 KTS INTO THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY WINDS DECREASING
LATE THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS DECREASE WITH CLEARING SKIES
AFTER 03Z. HOWEVER, UPSLOPE WINDS ALOFT ALONG THE WEST FACING SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS WILL GENERATE CLOUDS AT 7000-10000 FT
AGL THIS EVENING AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES
BY 10Z-12Z/20TH.  POLAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  84  54  81 /  10   0   0  10
ALW  65  85  61  82 /  10   0   0  10
PSC  64  87  59  84 /  10   0   0  10
YKM  60  84  55  81 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  62  86  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  61  82  57  80 /  10   0   0  10
RDM  49  79  41  76 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  54  81  48  79 /  20  10  10  10
GCD  55  81  48  78 /  20  10  10  10
DLS  63  81  57  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99








000
FXUS66 KPDT 192127
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY FALLING APART AS IT DOES WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS
SOME INSTABILITY STILL OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MANLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
JOHN DAY TO LEWISTON. BEHIND THE FRONT AN INCREASING WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT IS BRING SOME COOLER AIR OVER THE CASCADES CREATING SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THESE
WINDS WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN THIS EVENING AND THEN
WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. FORECAST AREA WILL BE LEFT
UNDER A COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. COULD
SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE IDAHO
BORDER. LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHWARD
AND DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY FORMING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL
ALSO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER BASIN ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SEASONABLY STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FROM SATURDAY OVERNIGHT UNTIL NOON ON
SATURDAY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WILL THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES TO PRODUCE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE,
LEEWARD TERRAIN INFLUENCES PRODUCING DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND THUS
SINKING AIR WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS FOR LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL INCREASE
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES LEADING TO AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, WALLOWA COUNTY AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
GRANT COUNTY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL THE UNSTABLE AREAS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A
RESULT OF BEING ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW, THE
CENTER OF WHICH WILL BE OVER IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA. THUS ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE
STEERED BY WINDS ALOFT TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WHICH IS AN
UNUSUAL DIRECTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVEMENT IN OUR REGION. BY
SUNDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING WHILE THE
EAST FLANK OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC PUTS FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
WHICH WILL CREATE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT
IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN GRANT COUNTY EASTWARD INTO IDAHO. ON MONDAY I KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WALLOWA MOUNTAINS, THE ELKHORN MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS THE STRAWBERRY
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE SINKING MOTION AND DRY CONDITIONS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  POLAN



&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AMORPHOUS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS AOA 20000 FT AGL. TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE
WINDS OF 15-25 KTS INTO THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY WINDS DECREASING
LATE THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS DECREASE WITH CLEARING SKIES
AFTER 03Z. HOWEVER, UPSLOPE WINDS ALOFT ALONG THE WEST FACING SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS WILL GENERATE CLOUDS AT 7000-10000 FT
AGL THIS EVENING AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES
BY 10Z-12Z/20TH.  POLAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  84  54  81 /  10   0   0  10
ALW  65  85  61  82 /  10   0   0  10
PSC  64  87  59  84 /  10   0   0  10
YKM  60  84  55  81 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  62  86  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  61  82  57  80 /  10   0   0  10
RDM  49  79  41  76 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  54  81  48  79 /  20  10  10  10
GCD  55  81  48  78 /  20  10  10  10
DLS  63  81  57  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99








000
FXUS66 KPDT 192127
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY FALLING APART AS IT DOES WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS
SOME INSTABILITY STILL OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MANLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
JOHN DAY TO LEWISTON. BEHIND THE FRONT AN INCREASING WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT IS BRING SOME COOLER AIR OVER THE CASCADES CREATING SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THESE
WINDS WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN THIS EVENING AND THEN
WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. FORECAST AREA WILL BE LEFT
UNDER A COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. COULD
SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE IDAHO
BORDER. LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHWARD
AND DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY FORMING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL
ALSO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER BASIN ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SEASONABLY STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FROM SATURDAY OVERNIGHT UNTIL NOON ON
SATURDAY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WILL THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES TO PRODUCE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE,
LEEWARD TERRAIN INFLUENCES PRODUCING DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND THUS
SINKING AIR WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS FOR LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL INCREASE
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES LEADING TO AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, WALLOWA COUNTY AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
GRANT COUNTY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL THE UNSTABLE AREAS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A
RESULT OF BEING ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW, THE
CENTER OF WHICH WILL BE OVER IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA. THUS ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE
STEERED BY WINDS ALOFT TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WHICH IS AN
UNUSUAL DIRECTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVEMENT IN OUR REGION. BY
SUNDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING WHILE THE
EAST FLANK OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC PUTS FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
WHICH WILL CREATE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT
IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN GRANT COUNTY EASTWARD INTO IDAHO. ON MONDAY I KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WALLOWA MOUNTAINS, THE ELKHORN MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS THE STRAWBERRY
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE SINKING MOTION AND DRY CONDITIONS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  POLAN



&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AMORPHOUS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS AOA 20000 FT AGL. TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE
WINDS OF 15-25 KTS INTO THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY WINDS DECREASING
LATE THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS DECREASE WITH CLEARING SKIES
AFTER 03Z. HOWEVER, UPSLOPE WINDS ALOFT ALONG THE WEST FACING SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS WILL GENERATE CLOUDS AT 7000-10000 FT
AGL THIS EVENING AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES
BY 10Z-12Z/20TH.  POLAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  84  54  81 /  10   0   0  10
ALW  65  85  61  82 /  10   0   0  10
PSC  64  87  59  84 /  10   0   0  10
YKM  60  84  55  81 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  62  86  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  61  82  57  80 /  10   0   0  10
RDM  49  79  41  76 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  54  81  48  79 /  20  10  10  10
GCD  55  81  48  78 /  20  10  10  10
DLS  63  81  57  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99








000
FXUS66 KPDT 192127
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY FALLING APART AS IT DOES WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS
SOME INSTABILITY STILL OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MANLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
JOHN DAY TO LEWISTON. BEHIND THE FRONT AN INCREASING WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT IS BRING SOME COOLER AIR OVER THE CASCADES CREATING SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THESE
WINDS WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN THIS EVENING AND THEN
WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. FORECAST AREA WILL BE LEFT
UNDER A COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. COULD
SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE IDAHO
BORDER. LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHWARD
AND DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY FORMING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL
ALSO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER BASIN ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SEASONABLY STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FROM SATURDAY OVERNIGHT UNTIL NOON ON
SATURDAY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WILL THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES TO PRODUCE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE,
LEEWARD TERRAIN INFLUENCES PRODUCING DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND THUS
SINKING AIR WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS FOR LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL INCREASE
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES LEADING TO AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, WALLOWA COUNTY AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
GRANT COUNTY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL THE UNSTABLE AREAS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A
RESULT OF BEING ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW, THE
CENTER OF WHICH WILL BE OVER IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA. THUS ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE
STEERED BY WINDS ALOFT TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WHICH IS AN
UNUSUAL DIRECTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVEMENT IN OUR REGION. BY
SUNDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING WHILE THE
EAST FLANK OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC PUTS FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
WHICH WILL CREATE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT
IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN GRANT COUNTY EASTWARD INTO IDAHO. ON MONDAY I KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WALLOWA MOUNTAINS, THE ELKHORN MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS THE STRAWBERRY
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE SINKING MOTION AND DRY CONDITIONS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  POLAN



&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AMORPHOUS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS AOA 20000 FT AGL. TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE
WINDS OF 15-25 KTS INTO THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY WINDS DECREASING
LATE THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS DECREASE WITH CLEARING SKIES
AFTER 03Z. HOWEVER, UPSLOPE WINDS ALOFT ALONG THE WEST FACING SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS WILL GENERATE CLOUDS AT 7000-10000 FT
AGL THIS EVENING AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES
BY 10Z-12Z/20TH.  POLAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  84  54  81 /  10   0   0  10
ALW  65  85  61  82 /  10   0   0  10
PSC  64  87  59  84 /  10   0   0  10
YKM  60  84  55  81 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  62  86  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  61  82  57  80 /  10   0   0  10
RDM  49  79  41  76 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  54  81  48  79 /  20  10  10  10
GCD  55  81  48  78 /  20  10  10  10
DLS  63  81  57  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99








000
FXUS65 KBOI 192057
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
257 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO SHOWS MOISTURE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
...ESPECIALLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTH OF JORDAN VALLEY TOWARDS
CENTRAL IDAHO SOUTH OF ATLANTA. THUNDERSTORM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH GUSTY WINDS 35 MPH TO LOCALLY 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL IS EXPECT
ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO... ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. EMBEDDED
IMPULSE OVER N/CENTRAL NV LOOKS TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO
OVERNIGHT SO NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOO. W/V ALSO SHOWS THE
WESTERN AXIS OF THE FIRST IMPULSE NEAR THE CASCADE CREST WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO PIVOT TO ALONG A BURNS-MCCALL AXIS WED. MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING DRYING AND STABILIZATION BEHIND IT TO ABOUT THE NW 2/3
OR 3/4 OF THE AREA. BY THURSDAY MORE DRY COOL AIR DROPS INTO THE
TROUGH OVER THE NW 3/4 OF THE AREA. A SURFACE LOW IS NOW EXPECTED
TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND STALL A WAVY TROUGH AXIS OR FRONT OVER
S-CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT TWO DAYS COULD SEE AROUND
ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS
COUNTY...THOUGH MODELS RANGE UP TO AROUND 0.6 INCHES. HIGHS WILL
BE COOLING OFF IN THIS PATTERN WHILE LOWS WILL VARY FROM MILD
UNDER CLOUDS TO MUCH COOLER WITH DRY AIR ACROSS SE OREGON TO THE
CENTRAL ID MTNS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE POPS AND
QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
AND RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY GIVE ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WILL BE REINFORCED BY A
SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OUT OF B.C. MAINTAINING THE
RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING OUR
AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANIED BY GRADUAL WARMING AND
DRYING.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
A CONTINUED DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SITTING OVER OUR REGION DUE TO A
BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS PATTERN AND MOST OF OUR CWA WILL BE PRECIPITATION
FREE EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NE WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED
BY HIGH MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY BROUGHT IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
UNTIL 06Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
BUT MAINLY NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS LOCALLY GUSTING OVER 20 KTS...
DECREASING TO 10 KTS OR LESS IN THE VALLEYS BY 06Z. WINDS ALOFT...
NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JT/AB
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 192057
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
257 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO SHOWS MOISTURE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
...ESPECIALLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTH OF JORDAN VALLEY TOWARDS
CENTRAL IDAHO SOUTH OF ATLANTA. THUNDERSTORM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH GUSTY WINDS 35 MPH TO LOCALLY 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL IS EXPECT
ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO... ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. EMBEDDED
IMPULSE OVER N/CENTRAL NV LOOKS TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO
OVERNIGHT SO NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOO. W/V ALSO SHOWS THE
WESTERN AXIS OF THE FIRST IMPULSE NEAR THE CASCADE CREST WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO PIVOT TO ALONG A BURNS-MCCALL AXIS WED. MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING DRYING AND STABILIZATION BEHIND IT TO ABOUT THE NW 2/3
OR 3/4 OF THE AREA. BY THURSDAY MORE DRY COOL AIR DROPS INTO THE
TROUGH OVER THE NW 3/4 OF THE AREA. A SURFACE LOW IS NOW EXPECTED
TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND STALL A WAVY TROUGH AXIS OR FRONT OVER
S-CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT TWO DAYS COULD SEE AROUND
ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS
COUNTY...THOUGH MODELS RANGE UP TO AROUND 0.6 INCHES. HIGHS WILL
BE COOLING OFF IN THIS PATTERN WHILE LOWS WILL VARY FROM MILD
UNDER CLOUDS TO MUCH COOLER WITH DRY AIR ACROSS SE OREGON TO THE
CENTRAL ID MTNS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE POPS AND
QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
AND RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY GIVE ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WILL BE REINFORCED BY A
SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OUT OF B.C. MAINTAINING THE
RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING OUR
AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANIED BY GRADUAL WARMING AND
DRYING.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
A CONTINUED DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SITTING OVER OUR REGION DUE TO A
BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS PATTERN AND MOST OF OUR CWA WILL BE PRECIPITATION
FREE EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NE WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED
BY HIGH MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY BROUGHT IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
UNTIL 06Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
BUT MAINLY NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS LOCALLY GUSTING OVER 20 KTS...
DECREASING TO 10 KTS OR LESS IN THE VALLEYS BY 06Z. WINDS ALOFT...
NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JT/AB
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS66 KPDT 191749 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1049 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT IS PASSING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT COULD INTERACT WITH
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE INCREASING BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SOME TODAY THEN EVEN MORE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMORPHOUS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
CEILINGS AOA 20000 FT AGL. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE WINDS STARTING OUT AT
5-10 KTS LATE THIS MORNING AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN WINDS DECREASING LATE THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING
SKIES AFTER 03Z. HOWEVER, UPSLOPE WINDS ALOFT ALONG THE WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS WILL GENERATE CLOUDS AT
7000-10000 FT AGL THIS EVENING AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING SKIES BY AROUND 10Z-12Z/20TH.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THE INITIAL BAND OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE CREST, AND MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE CENTRAL CASCADE
CREST THIS MORNING. A SECOND BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS AREA COULD AT LEAST CAUSE
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST EAST INTO THE
YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS AREA
THEN LOOKS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY LOOKS ONLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SHOWERS, BUT THUNDER MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH SHOWERS. THE AREA THAT COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM SOUTHERN WALLOWA COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO GRANT
COUNTY. THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE LEADING BAND OF MOISTURE OVERHEAD
AND MOVING EAST AT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SOME SLOP OVER PRECIP MAY CONTINUE OVER EXTREME
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, OTHERWISE THE AREA SHOULD
DRY OUT. THE REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY A
GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY FORECASTS DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DUE TO INCREASING HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WEST OF THE CASCADES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS INTO PORTIONS OF
THE BASIN ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL 5-8 DEGREES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON VERSUS THIS AFTERNOON. 90

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSING THROUGH NORTHEAST WASHINGTON FRIDAY WILL BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT PLACING
THE AREA UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE
SATURDAY. INSTABILITY AND LINGERING MOISTURE MAY TRIGGER A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY...A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH ABOUT 5 DEGREES
OF WARMING BY MONDAY. COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  89  60  84  52 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  90  65  85  58 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  92  64  87  56 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  90  60  84  54 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  91  62  86  54 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  87  61  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  85  49  79  39 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  86  54  81  47 /  20  20  10  10
GCD  85  55  81  45 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  87  63  81  56 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99







000
FXUS66 KPDT 191749 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1049 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT IS PASSING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT COULD INTERACT WITH
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE INCREASING BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SOME TODAY THEN EVEN MORE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMORPHOUS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
CEILINGS AOA 20000 FT AGL. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE WINDS STARTING OUT AT
5-10 KTS LATE THIS MORNING AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN WINDS DECREASING LATE THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING
SKIES AFTER 03Z. HOWEVER, UPSLOPE WINDS ALOFT ALONG THE WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS WILL GENERATE CLOUDS AT
7000-10000 FT AGL THIS EVENING AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING SKIES BY AROUND 10Z-12Z/20TH.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THE INITIAL BAND OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE CREST, AND MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE CENTRAL CASCADE
CREST THIS MORNING. A SECOND BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS AREA COULD AT LEAST CAUSE
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST EAST INTO THE
YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS AREA
THEN LOOKS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY LOOKS ONLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SHOWERS, BUT THUNDER MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH SHOWERS. THE AREA THAT COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM SOUTHERN WALLOWA COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO GRANT
COUNTY. THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE LEADING BAND OF MOISTURE OVERHEAD
AND MOVING EAST AT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SOME SLOP OVER PRECIP MAY CONTINUE OVER EXTREME
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, OTHERWISE THE AREA SHOULD
DRY OUT. THE REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY A
GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY FORECASTS DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DUE TO INCREASING HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WEST OF THE CASCADES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS INTO PORTIONS OF
THE BASIN ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL 5-8 DEGREES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON VERSUS THIS AFTERNOON. 90

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSING THROUGH NORTHEAST WASHINGTON FRIDAY WILL BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT PLACING
THE AREA UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE
SATURDAY. INSTABILITY AND LINGERING MOISTURE MAY TRIGGER A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY...A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH ABOUT 5 DEGREES
OF WARMING BY MONDAY. COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  89  60  84  52 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  90  65  85  58 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  92  64  87  56 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  90  60  84  54 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  91  62  86  54 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  87  61  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  85  49  79  39 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  86  54  81  47 /  20  20  10  10
GCD  85  55  81  45 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  87  63  81  56 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99






000
FXUS65 KBOI 191626 CCB
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1000 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST FOR MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR WEST AS MALHEUR COUNTY...UPPER WEISER BASIN AND
THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. THIS AREA IS CENTERED NEAR A 700 MB/10K
FT MSL COL AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WEST
FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
DEEP MOISTURE AND IMPULSES ACROSS E NV WHICH WILL LIFT NORTH/NE AND
BRUSH EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. W/V
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE TROUGH IN THE NRN BRANCH OF WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH SHOULD INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
OF OREGON TODAY AS WELL. LOOKING AHEAD TO WED/THURSDAY AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONT THAT PASSES OVER OREGON LATE TODAY AND SW IDAHO
AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO
SO THE LOW POPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO
INCLUDING THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST
12Z NAM AND 6Z GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
18Z-06Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY
NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 02Z.
WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW IS
SINKING SOUTH ALONG THE CA COAST...NEAR SAN FRANCISCO AS OF 230 AM
MDT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW TODAY AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN. THIS WILL STRONGLY IMPACT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WE
BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF ERN OREGON AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...NAMELY...
TWIN FALLS AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES. THE IMPACT FROM THE INCOMING
TROUGH WILL BE FELT IN ERN OREGON...WHILE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGHEST OVER THE SE PART OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO LEFT A RELATIVELY
HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE
MTNS. TEMPS WILL BE HIGH AGAIN TODAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 90S IN
THE VALLEYS AND 80S IN THE MTNS. WITH HEIGHTS FALLING TOMORROW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 60S AND 70S IN THE MTNS. CONVECTION TOMORROW WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE ERN EDGE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE TROUGH. WITH THE
AXIS RIGHT ALONG THE OREGON/IDAHO BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON...MOST
OF THE LIFT WILL BE ON THE IDAHO SIDE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A RE-ENFORCING SHORTWAVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN IDAHO.
THIS LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA. HOWEVER...A TROUGH
AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOWS REMAINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST THIS WEEKEND...AROUND 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER TROUGH AND DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS SHOW A BLOCKING
PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
COULD KEEP THE REGION COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A WHILE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....MT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 191626 CCB
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1000 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST FOR MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR WEST AS MALHEUR COUNTY...UPPER WEISER BASIN AND
THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. THIS AREA IS CENTERED NEAR A 700 MB/10K
FT MSL COL AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WEST
FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
DEEP MOISTURE AND IMPULSES ACROSS E NV WHICH WILL LIFT NORTH/NE AND
BRUSH EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. W/V
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE TROUGH IN THE NRN BRANCH OF WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH SHOULD INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
OF OREGON TODAY AS WELL. LOOKING AHEAD TO WED/THURSDAY AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONT THAT PASSES OVER OREGON LATE TODAY AND SW IDAHO
AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO
SO THE LOW POPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO
INCLUDING THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST
12Z NAM AND 6Z GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
18Z-06Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY
NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 02Z.
WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW IS
SINKING SOUTH ALONG THE CA COAST...NEAR SAN FRANCISCO AS OF 230 AM
MDT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW TODAY AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN. THIS WILL STRONGLY IMPACT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WE
BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF ERN OREGON AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...NAMELY...
TWIN FALLS AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES. THE IMPACT FROM THE INCOMING
TROUGH WILL BE FELT IN ERN OREGON...WHILE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGHEST OVER THE SE PART OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO LEFT A RELATIVELY
HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE
MTNS. TEMPS WILL BE HIGH AGAIN TODAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 90S IN
THE VALLEYS AND 80S IN THE MTNS. WITH HEIGHTS FALLING TOMORROW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 60S AND 70S IN THE MTNS. CONVECTION TOMORROW WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE ERN EDGE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE TROUGH. WITH THE
AXIS RIGHT ALONG THE OREGON/IDAHO BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON...MOST
OF THE LIFT WILL BE ON THE IDAHO SIDE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A RE-ENFORCING SHORTWAVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN IDAHO.
THIS LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA. HOWEVER...A TROUGH
AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOWS REMAINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST THIS WEEKEND...AROUND 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER TROUGH AND DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS SHOW A BLOCKING
PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
COULD KEEP THE REGION COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A WHILE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....MT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 191626 CCB
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1000 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST FOR MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR WEST AS MALHEUR COUNTY...UPPER WEISER BASIN AND
THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. THIS AREA IS CENTERED NEAR A 700 MB/10K
FT MSL COL AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WEST
FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
DEEP MOISTURE AND IMPULSES ACROSS E NV WHICH WILL LIFT NORTH/NE AND
BRUSH EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. W/V
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE TROUGH IN THE NRN BRANCH OF WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH SHOULD INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
OF OREGON TODAY AS WELL. LOOKING AHEAD TO WED/THURSDAY AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONT THAT PASSES OVER OREGON LATE TODAY AND SW IDAHO
AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO
SO THE LOW POPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO
INCLUDING THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST
12Z NAM AND 6Z GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
18Z-06Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY
NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 02Z.
WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW IS
SINKING SOUTH ALONG THE CA COAST...NEAR SAN FRANCISCO AS OF 230 AM
MDT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW TODAY AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN. THIS WILL STRONGLY IMPACT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WE
BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF ERN OREGON AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...NAMELY...
TWIN FALLS AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES. THE IMPACT FROM THE INCOMING
TROUGH WILL BE FELT IN ERN OREGON...WHILE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGHEST OVER THE SE PART OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO LEFT A RELATIVELY
HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE
MTNS. TEMPS WILL BE HIGH AGAIN TODAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 90S IN
THE VALLEYS AND 80S IN THE MTNS. WITH HEIGHTS FALLING TOMORROW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 60S AND 70S IN THE MTNS. CONVECTION TOMORROW WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE ERN EDGE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE TROUGH. WITH THE
AXIS RIGHT ALONG THE OREGON/IDAHO BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON...MOST
OF THE LIFT WILL BE ON THE IDAHO SIDE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A RE-ENFORCING SHORTWAVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN IDAHO.
THIS LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA. HOWEVER...A TROUGH
AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOWS REMAINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST THIS WEEKEND...AROUND 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER TROUGH AND DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS SHOW A BLOCKING
PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
COULD KEEP THE REGION COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A WHILE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....MT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 191626 CCB
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1000 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST FOR MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR WEST AS MALHEUR COUNTY...UPPER WEISER BASIN AND
THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. THIS AREA IS CENTERED NEAR A 700 MB/10K
FT MSL COL AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WEST
FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
DEEP MOISTURE AND IMPULSES ACROSS E NV WHICH WILL LIFT NORTH/NE AND
BRUSH EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. W/V
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE TROUGH IN THE NRN BRANCH OF WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH SHOULD INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
OF OREGON TODAY AS WELL. LOOKING AHEAD TO WED/THURSDAY AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONT THAT PASSES OVER OREGON LATE TODAY AND SW IDAHO
AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO
SO THE LOW POPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO
INCLUDING THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST
12Z NAM AND 6Z GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
18Z-06Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY
NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 02Z.
WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW IS
SINKING SOUTH ALONG THE CA COAST...NEAR SAN FRANCISCO AS OF 230 AM
MDT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW TODAY AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN. THIS WILL STRONGLY IMPACT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WE
BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF ERN OREGON AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...NAMELY...
TWIN FALLS AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES. THE IMPACT FROM THE INCOMING
TROUGH WILL BE FELT IN ERN OREGON...WHILE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGHEST OVER THE SE PART OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO LEFT A RELATIVELY
HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE
MTNS. TEMPS WILL BE HIGH AGAIN TODAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 90S IN
THE VALLEYS AND 80S IN THE MTNS. WITH HEIGHTS FALLING TOMORROW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 60S AND 70S IN THE MTNS. CONVECTION TOMORROW WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE ERN EDGE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE TROUGH. WITH THE
AXIS RIGHT ALONG THE OREGON/IDAHO BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON...MOST
OF THE LIFT WILL BE ON THE IDAHO SIDE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A RE-ENFORCING SHORTWAVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN IDAHO.
THIS LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA. HOWEVER...A TROUGH
AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOWS REMAINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST THIS WEEKEND...AROUND 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER TROUGH AND DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS SHOW A BLOCKING
PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
COULD KEEP THE REGION COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A WHILE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....MT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS



000
FXUS66 KMFR 191602
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
902 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...A MORNING UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO FINE TUNE THE
EXPECTED POSITIONING OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BIG PICTURE IS UNCHANGED WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY, MODOC COUNTY, AND LAKE COUNTY. AN ANALYSIS OF THE
RECENTLY ARRIVED 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS DATA COMPARED TO THEIR
PREVIOUS RUN INDICATES LESS MOISTURE ALOFT BETWEEN 700 MB AND 500
MB OVER THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THAT HIGHER MOISTURE
VALUES WILL LINGER OVER A LARGER PORTION OF LAKE COUNTY INTO THIS
EVENING. I WILL ALSO ADD TENNANT IN EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO
THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS EVENING.

THE OTHER SHORT TERM ISSUE IS THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF AN
INTRUSION OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND UMPQUA
VALLEY THIS EVENING. BUT, IT IS IN QUESTION WHETHER THIS MARINE
LAYER WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SPILL OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE INTO
JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTIES. THE 12Z GFS INDICATES THE MARINE
LAYER WILL NOT QUITE BE DEEP ENOUGH TO DO SO, WHILE THE NAM IS MORE
SUPPORTIVE WITH A STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER DEPICTION. GIVEN
THE TIME OF THE YEAR, EXPECT A BLEND IS MOST LIKELY AND THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THAT SCENARIO. IN THAT CASE, LOW
CLOUDS WOULD SPILL INTO JOSEPHINE COUNTY AND NORTHERN JACKSON
COUNTY TO AROUND SHADY COVE WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AGAINST
THE SISKIYOUS ALSO GENERATING SOME LOW CLOUDS AT THE SOUTH END OF
THE ROGUE VALLEY AROUND ASHLAND.

BREEZY NORTHWEST AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY AND ALSO A STABLE PATTERN WITH A COOLING TREND WILL FOLLOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE COASTAL VALLEYS...AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MID-MORNING TUESDAY...THEN CLEAR TO VFR. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TUESDAY EVENING. INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE...ESPECIALLY
OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE TRINITY ALPS TO MEDICINE LAKE AND ALSO FROM
WINTER RIM SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WARNERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT TUE 19 AUG 2014...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF NORTH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS
OFFSHORE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM INDICATE THAT THE DEFORMATION AREA WILL
SHIFT EAST. THE MOST UNSTABLE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE
TRINITY ALPS AREA EASTWARD TO MEDICINE LAKE AND FROM WINTER RIM
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WARNERS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY WITH A COOL STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A MARINE PUSH TO BRING LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN AND POSSIBLY INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY THEN THE UPPER LOW AND THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GONE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND, POSSIBLY LONGER. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNEVENTFUL, DRY, AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
HINT AT A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AROUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THIS WOULD PRESENT A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WITH WARM AND DRY RIDGE
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

DW/CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 191602
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
902 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...A MORNING UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO FINE TUNE THE
EXPECTED POSITIONING OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BIG PICTURE IS UNCHANGED WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY, MODOC COUNTY, AND LAKE COUNTY. AN ANALYSIS OF THE
RECENTLY ARRIVED 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS DATA COMPARED TO THEIR
PREVIOUS RUN INDICATES LESS MOISTURE ALOFT BETWEEN 700 MB AND 500
MB OVER THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THAT HIGHER MOISTURE
VALUES WILL LINGER OVER A LARGER PORTION OF LAKE COUNTY INTO THIS
EVENING. I WILL ALSO ADD TENNANT IN EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO
THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS EVENING.

THE OTHER SHORT TERM ISSUE IS THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF AN
INTRUSION OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND UMPQUA
VALLEY THIS EVENING. BUT, IT IS IN QUESTION WHETHER THIS MARINE
LAYER WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SPILL OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE INTO
JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTIES. THE 12Z GFS INDICATES THE MARINE
LAYER WILL NOT QUITE BE DEEP ENOUGH TO DO SO, WHILE THE NAM IS MORE
SUPPORTIVE WITH A STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER DEPICTION. GIVEN
THE TIME OF THE YEAR, EXPECT A BLEND IS MOST LIKELY AND THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THAT SCENARIO. IN THAT CASE, LOW
CLOUDS WOULD SPILL INTO JOSEPHINE COUNTY AND NORTHERN JACKSON
COUNTY TO AROUND SHADY COVE WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AGAINST
THE SISKIYOUS ALSO GENERATING SOME LOW CLOUDS AT THE SOUTH END OF
THE ROGUE VALLEY AROUND ASHLAND.

BREEZY NORTHWEST AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY AND ALSO A STABLE PATTERN WITH A COOLING TREND WILL FOLLOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE COASTAL VALLEYS...AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MID-MORNING TUESDAY...THEN CLEAR TO VFR. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TUESDAY EVENING. INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE...ESPECIALLY
OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE TRINITY ALPS TO MEDICINE LAKE AND ALSO FROM
WINTER RIM SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WARNERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT TUE 19 AUG 2014...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF NORTH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS
OFFSHORE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM INDICATE THAT THE DEFORMATION AREA WILL
SHIFT EAST. THE MOST UNSTABLE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE
TRINITY ALPS AREA EASTWARD TO MEDICINE LAKE AND FROM WINTER RIM
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WARNERS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY WITH A COOL STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A MARINE PUSH TO BRING LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN AND POSSIBLY INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY THEN THE UPPER LOW AND THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GONE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND, POSSIBLY LONGER. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNEVENTFUL, DRY, AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
HINT AT A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AROUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THIS WOULD PRESENT A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WITH WARM AND DRY RIDGE
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

DW/CC






000
FXUS66 KPQR 191601
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
858 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE
AT TIMES ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE LAYER OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TO NEAR KELSO. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ONLY
PRECIPITATION RECEIVED FROM THE FRONT WAS SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE ALONG
THE COAST OVERNIGHT.  WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP ALONG THE COAST TODAY
AND ALSO IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS GRADIENTS INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE PACIFIC
UPPER RIDGE BECOMES DOMINANT WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING BECOMING
APPARENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS LEAVES THE PACNW UNDER
BROAD NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS PATTERN GENERALLY
BRINGS COASTAL STRATUS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. INLAND AREAS WILL
START OUT HAVING MORNING CLOUDS THEN CLEARING BUT EVEN THE INLAND
MOISTURE BECOMES LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH TIME AND FEEL INLAND AREAS MAY
STAY OUT OF THE MORNING CLOUDS COME THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. NEXT THREAT FOR ANY WEATHER OF SIGNIFICANCE IS FRIDAY WITH
MODELS ADVERTISING A STRENGTHENING CIRCULATION OVER THE INTERIOR
PACNW. SO FAR...ANY CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LOOK TO STAY WELL EAST OF THE
AREA BUT SUBTLE WESTERLY SHIFTS MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CWA. TW/JBONK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING STATUS QUO
FOR THE UPPER PATTERN. THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW FROM FRIDAY
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVES SLIDING SOUTH
ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW TRIED TO DIG
OVER THE INTERIOR PACNW MONDAY BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO REMAIN EAST OF
THE CWA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY ALONG THE COAST WITH
SUNDAY ON TRACK FOR INLAND AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ON TAP
UNLESS THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOWS END UP PUSHING FURTHER WEST AS A
RESULT OF THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE BECOMING STRONGER AND PUSHING
EVEN FURTHER NORTH. /JBONK

&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY BEHIND WEAK
FRONT. STRATUS WILL PERSIST ALONG COAST...BUT LIFT FROM IFR THIS
AM TO LOW MVFR BY 19Z. INLAND REMAINS MOSTLY VFR UNDER VARIABLE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IFR VIS WILL MAKE AN EARLY
RETURN TO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LOW
MVFR CIGS PUSHING UP COLUMBIA RIVER WILL SPREAD INTO CLARK COUNTY
BY 13Z...THEN SPREADING S AND E AS FAR S AS KUAO. STRATUS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL 18Z. ROCKEY/BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. SEAS VERY
STEEP WITH OFFSHORE BUOYS RANGING FROM 6 TO 8 FT AT 7 TO 8
SECONDS. SEAS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH PERIODS
INCREASING TO AROUND 9 SECONDS. WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING 10 TO 15
KT TODAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KT. WILL KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR POSSIBILITY OF MORE FREQUENT GUSTS AS BUOYS 29 AND 89 ARE
ALREADY RATHER GUSTY THIS MORNING AND CALM WINDS AT BUOY 50 ARE
HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THIS WEEK AS
HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC...BUT SEAS WILL FLATTEN AS SWELL
DECREASES LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 191601
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
858 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE
AT TIMES ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE LAYER OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TO NEAR KELSO. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ONLY
PRECIPITATION RECEIVED FROM THE FRONT WAS SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE ALONG
THE COAST OVERNIGHT.  WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP ALONG THE COAST TODAY
AND ALSO IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS GRADIENTS INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE PACIFIC
UPPER RIDGE BECOMES DOMINANT WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING BECOMING
APPARENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS LEAVES THE PACNW UNDER
BROAD NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS PATTERN GENERALLY
BRINGS COASTAL STRATUS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. INLAND AREAS WILL
START OUT HAVING MORNING CLOUDS THEN CLEARING BUT EVEN THE INLAND
MOISTURE BECOMES LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH TIME AND FEEL INLAND AREAS MAY
STAY OUT OF THE MORNING CLOUDS COME THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. NEXT THREAT FOR ANY WEATHER OF SIGNIFICANCE IS FRIDAY WITH
MODELS ADVERTISING A STRENGTHENING CIRCULATION OVER THE INTERIOR
PACNW. SO FAR...ANY CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LOOK TO STAY WELL EAST OF THE
AREA BUT SUBTLE WESTERLY SHIFTS MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CWA. TW/JBONK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING STATUS QUO
FOR THE UPPER PATTERN. THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW FROM FRIDAY
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVES SLIDING SOUTH
ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW TRIED TO DIG
OVER THE INTERIOR PACNW MONDAY BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO REMAIN EAST OF
THE CWA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY ALONG THE COAST WITH
SUNDAY ON TRACK FOR INLAND AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ON TAP
UNLESS THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOWS END UP PUSHING FURTHER WEST AS A
RESULT OF THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE BECOMING STRONGER AND PUSHING
EVEN FURTHER NORTH. /JBONK

&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY BEHIND WEAK
FRONT. STRATUS WILL PERSIST ALONG COAST...BUT LIFT FROM IFR THIS
AM TO LOW MVFR BY 19Z. INLAND REMAINS MOSTLY VFR UNDER VARIABLE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IFR VIS WILL MAKE AN EARLY
RETURN TO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LOW
MVFR CIGS PUSHING UP COLUMBIA RIVER WILL SPREAD INTO CLARK COUNTY
BY 13Z...THEN SPREADING S AND E AS FAR S AS KUAO. STRATUS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL 18Z. ROCKEY/BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. SEAS VERY
STEEP WITH OFFSHORE BUOYS RANGING FROM 6 TO 8 FT AT 7 TO 8
SECONDS. SEAS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH PERIODS
INCREASING TO AROUND 9 SECONDS. WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING 10 TO 15
KT TODAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KT. WILL KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR POSSIBILITY OF MORE FREQUENT GUSTS AS BUOYS 29 AND 89 ARE
ALREADY RATHER GUSTY THIS MORNING AND CALM WINDS AT BUOY 50 ARE
HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THIS WEEK AS
HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC...BUT SEAS WILL FLATTEN AS SWELL
DECREASES LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 191600
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1000 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST FOR MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR WEST AS MALHEUR COUNTY...UPPER WEISER BASIN
AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. THIS AREA IN CENTERED NEAR A 700
MB/10K FT MSL COL AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AS WEST FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE AND IMPULSES ACROSS E NV WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTH/NE AND BRUSH EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITIY. W/V IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE TROUGH IN THE NRN
BRANCH OF WESTERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD INITIATE ISOALTED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF OREGON TODAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
18Z-06Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY
NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 02Z.
WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW IS
SINKING SOUTH ALONG THE CA COAST...NEAR SAN FRANCISCO AS OF 230 AM
MDT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW TODAY AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN. THIS WILL STRONGLY IMPACT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WE
BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF ERN OREGON AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...NAMELY...
TWIN FALLS AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES. THE IMPACT FROM THE INCOMING
TROUGH WILL BE FELT IN ERN OREGON...WHILE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGHEST OVER THE SE PART OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO LEFT A RELATIVELY
HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE
MTNS. TEMPS WILL BE HIGH AGAIN TODAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 90S IN
THE VALLEYS AND 80S IN THE MTNS. WITH HEIGHTS FALLING TOMORROW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 60S AND 70S IN THE MTNS. CONVECTION TOMORROW WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE ERN EDGE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE TROUGH. WITH THE
AXIS RIGHT ALONG THE OREGON/IDAHO BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON...MOST
OF THE LIFT WILL BE ON THE IDAHO SIDE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A RE-ENFORCING SHORTWAVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN IDAHO.
THIS LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA. HOWEVER...A TROUGH
AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOWS REMAINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST THIS WEEKEND...AROUND 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER TROUGH AND DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS SHOW A BLOCKING
PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
COULD KEEP THE REGION COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A WHILE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....MT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 191600
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1000 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST FOR MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR WEST AS MALHEUR COUNTY...UPPER WEISER BASIN
AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. THIS AREA IN CENTERED NEAR A 700
MB/10K FT MSL COL AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AS WEST FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE AND IMPULSES ACROSS E NV WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTH/NE AND BRUSH EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITIY. W/V IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE TROUGH IN THE NRN
BRANCH OF WESTERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD INITIATE ISOALTED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF OREGON TODAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
18Z-06Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY
NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 02Z.
WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW IS
SINKING SOUTH ALONG THE CA COAST...NEAR SAN FRANCISCO AS OF 230 AM
MDT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW TODAY AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN. THIS WILL STRONGLY IMPACT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WE
BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF ERN OREGON AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...NAMELY...
TWIN FALLS AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES. THE IMPACT FROM THE INCOMING
TROUGH WILL BE FELT IN ERN OREGON...WHILE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGHEST OVER THE SE PART OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO LEFT A RELATIVELY
HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE
MTNS. TEMPS WILL BE HIGH AGAIN TODAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 90S IN
THE VALLEYS AND 80S IN THE MTNS. WITH HEIGHTS FALLING TOMORROW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 60S AND 70S IN THE MTNS. CONVECTION TOMORROW WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE ERN EDGE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE TROUGH. WITH THE
AXIS RIGHT ALONG THE OREGON/IDAHO BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON...MOST
OF THE LIFT WILL BE ON THE IDAHO SIDE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A RE-ENFORCING SHORTWAVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN IDAHO.
THIS LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA. HOWEVER...A TROUGH
AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOWS REMAINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST THIS WEEKEND...AROUND 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER TROUGH AND DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS SHOW A BLOCKING
PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
COULD KEEP THE REGION COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A WHILE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....MT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 191600 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1000 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST FOR MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR WEST AS MALHEUR COUNTY...UPPER WEISER BASIN
AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. THIS AREA IN CENTERED NEAR A 700
MB/10K FT MSL COL AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AS WEST FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE AND IMPULSES ACROSS E NV WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTH/NE AND BRUSH EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. W/V IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE TROUGH IN THE NRN
BRANCH OF WESTERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD INITIATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF OREGON TODAY AS WELL.
LOOKING AHEAD TO WED/THURSDAY AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT THAT
PASSES OVER OREGON LATE TODAY AND SW IDAHO BY NOON WEDNESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO SO THE LOW POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO INCLUDING THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST 12Z NAM AND 6Z GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
18Z-06Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY
NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 02Z.
WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW IS
SINKING SOUTH ALONG THE CA COAST...NEAR SAN FRANCISCO AS OF 230 AM
MDT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW TODAY AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN. THIS WILL STRONGLY IMPACT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WE
BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF ERN OREGON AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...NAMELY...
TWIN FALLS AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES. THE IMPACT FROM THE INCOMING
TROUGH WILL BE FELT IN ERN OREGON...WHILE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGHEST OVER THE SE PART OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO LEFT A RELATIVELY
HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE
MTNS. TEMPS WILL BE HIGH AGAIN TODAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 90S IN
THE VALLEYS AND 80S IN THE MTNS. WITH HEIGHTS FALLING TOMORROW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 60S AND 70S IN THE MTNS. CONVECTION TOMORROW WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE ERN EDGE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE TROUGH. WITH THE
AXIS RIGHT ALONG THE OREGON/IDAHO BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON...MOST
OF THE LIFT WILL BE ON THE IDAHO SIDE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A RE-ENFORCING SHORTWAVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN IDAHO.
THIS LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA. HOWEVER...A TROUGH
AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOWS REMAINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST THIS WEEKEND...AROUND 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER TROUGH AND DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS SHOW A BLOCKING
PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
COULD KEEP THE REGION COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A WHILE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....MT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 191600 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1000 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST FOR MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR WEST AS MALHEUR COUNTY...UPPER WEISER BASIN
AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. THIS AREA IN CENTERED NEAR A 700
MB/10K FT MSL COL AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AS WEST FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE AND IMPULSES ACROSS E NV WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTH/NE AND BRUSH EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. W/V IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE TROUGH IN THE NRN
BRANCH OF WESTERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD INITIATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF OREGON TODAY AS WELL.
LOOKING AHEAD TO WED/THURSDAY AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT THAT
PASSES OVER OREGON LATE TODAY AND SW IDAHO BY NOON WEDNESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO SO THE LOW POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO INCLUDING THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST 12Z NAM AND 6Z GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
18Z-06Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY
NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 02Z.
WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW IS
SINKING SOUTH ALONG THE CA COAST...NEAR SAN FRANCISCO AS OF 230 AM
MDT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW TODAY AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN. THIS WILL STRONGLY IMPACT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WE
BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF ERN OREGON AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...NAMELY...
TWIN FALLS AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES. THE IMPACT FROM THE INCOMING
TROUGH WILL BE FELT IN ERN OREGON...WHILE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGHEST OVER THE SE PART OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO LEFT A RELATIVELY
HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE
MTNS. TEMPS WILL BE HIGH AGAIN TODAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 90S IN
THE VALLEYS AND 80S IN THE MTNS. WITH HEIGHTS FALLING TOMORROW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 60S AND 70S IN THE MTNS. CONVECTION TOMORROW WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE ERN EDGE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE TROUGH. WITH THE
AXIS RIGHT ALONG THE OREGON/IDAHO BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON...MOST
OF THE LIFT WILL BE ON THE IDAHO SIDE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A RE-ENFORCING SHORTWAVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN IDAHO.
THIS LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA. HOWEVER...A TROUGH
AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOWS REMAINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST THIS WEEKEND...AROUND 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER TROUGH AND DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS SHOW A BLOCKING
PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
COULD KEEP THE REGION COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A WHILE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....MT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS



000
FXUS66 KPDT 191520
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
820 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT IS PASSING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT COULD INTERACT WITH
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE INCREASING BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SOME TODAY THEN EVEN MORE ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 410 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THE INITIAL BAND OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE CREST, AND MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE CENTRAL CASCADE
CREST THIS MORNING. A SECOND BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS AREA COULD AT LEAST CAUSE
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST EAST INTO THE
YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS AREA
THEN LOOKS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY LOOKS ONLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SHOWERS, BUT THUNDER MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH SHOWERS. THE AREA THAT COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM SOUTHERN WALLOWA COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO GRANT
COUNTY. THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE LEADING BAND OF MOISTURE OVERHEAD
AND MOVING EAST AT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SOME SLOP OVER PRECIP MAY CONTINUE OVER EXTREME
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, OTHERWISE THE AREA SHOULD
DRY OUT. THE REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY A
GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY FORECASTS DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DUE TO INCREASING HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WEST OF THE CASCADES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS INTO PORTIONS OF
THE BASIN ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL 5-8 DEGREES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON VERSUS THIS AFTERNOON. 90

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSING THROUGH NORTHEAST WASHINGTON FRIDAY WILL BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT PLACING
THE AREA UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE
SATURDAY. INSTABILITY AND LINGERING MOISTURE MAY TRIGGER A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY...A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH ABOUT 5 DEGREES
OF WARMING BY MONDAY. COONFIELD

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...WEAK FRONTAL BAND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS 120-200. WINDS 5-10KT THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 15-25KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING AND CLEARING
AFT 03Z. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  89  60  84  52 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  90  65  85  58 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  92  64  87  56 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  90  60  84  54 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  91  62  86  54 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  87  61  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  85  49  79  39 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  86  54  81  47 /  20  20  10  10
GCD  85  55  81  45 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  87  63  81  56 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99








000
FXUS66 KPDT 191520
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
820 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT IS PASSING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT COULD INTERACT WITH
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE INCREASING BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SOME TODAY THEN EVEN MORE ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 410 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THE INITIAL BAND OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE CREST, AND MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE CENTRAL CASCADE
CREST THIS MORNING. A SECOND BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS AREA COULD AT LEAST CAUSE
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST EAST INTO THE
YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS AREA
THEN LOOKS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY LOOKS ONLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SHOWERS, BUT THUNDER MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH SHOWERS. THE AREA THAT COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM SOUTHERN WALLOWA COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO GRANT
COUNTY. THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE LEADING BAND OF MOISTURE OVERHEAD
AND MOVING EAST AT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SOME SLOP OVER PRECIP MAY CONTINUE OVER EXTREME
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, OTHERWISE THE AREA SHOULD
DRY OUT. THE REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY A
GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY FORECASTS DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DUE TO INCREASING HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WEST OF THE CASCADES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS INTO PORTIONS OF
THE BASIN ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL 5-8 DEGREES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON VERSUS THIS AFTERNOON. 90

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSING THROUGH NORTHEAST WASHINGTON FRIDAY WILL BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT PLACING
THE AREA UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE
SATURDAY. INSTABILITY AND LINGERING MOISTURE MAY TRIGGER A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY...A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH ABOUT 5 DEGREES
OF WARMING BY MONDAY. COONFIELD

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...WEAK FRONTAL BAND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS 120-200. WINDS 5-10KT THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 15-25KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING AND CLEARING
AFT 03Z. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  89  60  84  52 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  90  65  85  58 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  92  64  87  56 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  90  60  84  54 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  91  62  86  54 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  87  61  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  85  49  79  39 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  86  54  81  47 /  20  20  10  10
GCD  85  55  81  45 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  87  63  81  56 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99








000
FXUS66 KPDT 191520
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
820 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT IS PASSING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT COULD INTERACT WITH
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE INCREASING BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SOME TODAY THEN EVEN MORE ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 410 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THE INITIAL BAND OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE CREST, AND MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE CENTRAL CASCADE
CREST THIS MORNING. A SECOND BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS AREA COULD AT LEAST CAUSE
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST EAST INTO THE
YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS AREA
THEN LOOKS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY LOOKS ONLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SHOWERS, BUT THUNDER MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH SHOWERS. THE AREA THAT COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM SOUTHERN WALLOWA COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO GRANT
COUNTY. THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE LEADING BAND OF MOISTURE OVERHEAD
AND MOVING EAST AT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SOME SLOP OVER PRECIP MAY CONTINUE OVER EXTREME
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, OTHERWISE THE AREA SHOULD
DRY OUT. THE REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY A
GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY FORECASTS DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DUE TO INCREASING HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WEST OF THE CASCADES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS INTO PORTIONS OF
THE BASIN ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL 5-8 DEGREES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON VERSUS THIS AFTERNOON. 90

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSING THROUGH NORTHEAST WASHINGTON FRIDAY WILL BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT PLACING
THE AREA UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE
SATURDAY. INSTABILITY AND LINGERING MOISTURE MAY TRIGGER A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY...A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH ABOUT 5 DEGREES
OF WARMING BY MONDAY. COONFIELD

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...WEAK FRONTAL BAND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS 120-200. WINDS 5-10KT THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 15-25KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING AND CLEARING
AFT 03Z. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  89  60  84  52 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  90  65  85  58 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  92  64  87  56 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  90  60  84  54 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  91  62  86  54 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  87  61  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  85  49  79  39 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  86  54  81  47 /  20  20  10  10
GCD  85  55  81  45 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  87  63  81  56 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99








000
FXUS66 KPDT 191520
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
820 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT IS PASSING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT COULD INTERACT WITH
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE INCREASING BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SOME TODAY THEN EVEN MORE ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 410 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THE INITIAL BAND OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE CREST, AND MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE CENTRAL CASCADE
CREST THIS MORNING. A SECOND BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS AREA COULD AT LEAST CAUSE
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST EAST INTO THE
YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS AREA
THEN LOOKS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY LOOKS ONLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SHOWERS, BUT THUNDER MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH SHOWERS. THE AREA THAT COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM SOUTHERN WALLOWA COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO GRANT
COUNTY. THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE LEADING BAND OF MOISTURE OVERHEAD
AND MOVING EAST AT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SOME SLOP OVER PRECIP MAY CONTINUE OVER EXTREME
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, OTHERWISE THE AREA SHOULD
DRY OUT. THE REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY A
GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY FORECASTS DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DUE TO INCREASING HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WEST OF THE CASCADES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS INTO PORTIONS OF
THE BASIN ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL 5-8 DEGREES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON VERSUS THIS AFTERNOON. 90

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSING THROUGH NORTHEAST WASHINGTON FRIDAY WILL BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT PLACING
THE AREA UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE
SATURDAY. INSTABILITY AND LINGERING MOISTURE MAY TRIGGER A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY...A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH ABOUT 5 DEGREES
OF WARMING BY MONDAY. COONFIELD

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...WEAK FRONTAL BAND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS 120-200. WINDS 5-10KT THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 15-25KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING AND CLEARING
AFT 03Z. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  89  60  84  52 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  90  65  85  58 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  92  64  87  56 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  90  60  84  54 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  91  62  86  54 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  87  61  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  85  49  79  39 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  86  54  81  47 /  20  20  10  10
GCD  85  55  81  45 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  87  63  81  56 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99








000
FXUS66 KMFR 191147 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
447 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM INDICATE THAT THE DEFORMATION AREA WILL
SHIFT EAST. THE MOST UNSTABLE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE
TRINITY ALPS AREA EASTWARD TO MEDICINE LAKE AND FROM WINTER RIM
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WARNERS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY WITH A COOL STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A MARINE PUSH TO BRING LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN AND POSSIBLY INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY THEN THE UPPER LOW AND THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GONE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND, POSSIBLY LONGER. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNEVENTFUL, DRY, AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
HINT AT A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AROUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THIS WOULD PRESENT A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WITH WARM AND DRY RIDGE
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE COASTAL VALLEYS...AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MID-MORNING TUESDAY...THEN CLEAR TO VFR. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TUESDAY EVENING. INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE...ESPECIALLY
OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE TRINITY ALPS TO MEDICINE LAKE AND ALSO FROM
WINTER RIM SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WARNERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT TUE 19 AUG 2014...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF NORTH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS
OFFSHORE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

MAS/FB







000
FXUS66 KMFR 191147 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
447 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM INDICATE THAT THE DEFORMATION AREA WILL
SHIFT EAST. THE MOST UNSTABLE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE
TRINITY ALPS AREA EASTWARD TO MEDICINE LAKE AND FROM WINTER RIM
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WARNERS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY WITH A COOL STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A MARINE PUSH TO BRING LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN AND POSSIBLY INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY THEN THE UPPER LOW AND THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GONE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND, POSSIBLY LONGER. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNEVENTFUL, DRY, AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
HINT AT A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AROUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THIS WOULD PRESENT A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WITH WARM AND DRY RIDGE
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE COASTAL VALLEYS...AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MID-MORNING TUESDAY...THEN CLEAR TO VFR. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TUESDAY EVENING. INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE...ESPECIALLY
OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE TRINITY ALPS TO MEDICINE LAKE AND ALSO FROM
WINTER RIM SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WARNERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT TUE 19 AUG 2014...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF NORTH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS
OFFSHORE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

MAS/FB







000
FXUS66 KMFR 191147 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
447 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM INDICATE THAT THE DEFORMATION AREA WILL
SHIFT EAST. THE MOST UNSTABLE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE
TRINITY ALPS AREA EASTWARD TO MEDICINE LAKE AND FROM WINTER RIM
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WARNERS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY WITH A COOL STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A MARINE PUSH TO BRING LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN AND POSSIBLY INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY THEN THE UPPER LOW AND THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GONE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND, POSSIBLY LONGER. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNEVENTFUL, DRY, AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
HINT AT A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AROUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THIS WOULD PRESENT A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WITH WARM AND DRY RIDGE
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE COASTAL VALLEYS...AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MID-MORNING TUESDAY...THEN CLEAR TO VFR. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TUESDAY EVENING. INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE...ESPECIALLY
OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE TRINITY ALPS TO MEDICINE LAKE AND ALSO FROM
WINTER RIM SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WARNERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT TUE 19 AUG 2014...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF NORTH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS
OFFSHORE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

MAS/FB







000
FXUS66 KMFR 191147 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
447 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM INDICATE THAT THE DEFORMATION AREA WILL
SHIFT EAST. THE MOST UNSTABLE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE
TRINITY ALPS AREA EASTWARD TO MEDICINE LAKE AND FROM WINTER RIM
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WARNERS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY WITH A COOL STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A MARINE PUSH TO BRING LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN AND POSSIBLY INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY THEN THE UPPER LOW AND THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GONE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND, POSSIBLY LONGER. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNEVENTFUL, DRY, AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
HINT AT A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AROUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THIS WOULD PRESENT A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WITH WARM AND DRY RIDGE
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE COASTAL VALLEYS...AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MID-MORNING TUESDAY...THEN CLEAR TO VFR. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TUESDAY EVENING. INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE...ESPECIALLY
OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE TRINITY ALPS TO MEDICINE LAKE AND ALSO FROM
WINTER RIM SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WARNERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT TUE 19 AUG 2014...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF NORTH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS
OFFSHORE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

MAS/FB







000
FXUS66 KPDT 191111 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
410 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THE INITIAL BAND OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE CREST, AND MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE CENTRAL CASCADE
CREST THIS MORNING. A SECOND BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS AREA COULD AT LEAST CAUSE
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST EAST INTO THE
YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS AREA
THEN LOOKS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY LOOKS ONLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SHOWERS, BUT THUNDER MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH SHOWERS. THE AREA THAT COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM SOUTHERN WALLOWA COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO GRANT
COUNTY. THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE LEADING BAND OF MOISTURE OVERHEAD
AND MOVING EAST AT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SOME SLOP OVER PRECIP MAY CONTINUE OVER EXTREME
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, OTHERWISE THE AREA SHOULD
DRY OUT. THE REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY A
GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY FORECASTS DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DUE TO INCREASING HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WEST OF THE CASCADES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS INTO PORTIONS OF
THE BASIN ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL 5-8 DEGREES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON VERSUS THIS AFTERNOON. 90

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSING THROUGH NORTHEAST WASHINGTON FRIDAY WILL BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT PLACING
THE AREA UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE
SATURDAY. INSTABILITY AND LINGERING MOISTURE MAY TRIGGER A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY...A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH ABOUT 5 DEGREES
OF WARMING BY MONDAY. COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...WEAK FRONTAL BAND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS 120-200. WINDS 5-10KT THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 15-25KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING AND CLEARING
AFT 03Z. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  89  58  83  52 /  10  20   0   0
ALW  91  63  85  58 /  10  20   0   0
PSC  93  61  87  56 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  90  58  84  54 /  20   0   0   0
HRI  92  60  86  54 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  87  60  82  56 /  20   0   0   0
RDM  88  47  81  39 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  87  54  81  47 /  10  10  10  10
GCD  89  53  83  45 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  87  61  80  56 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/76/76






000
FXUS66 KPDT 191111 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
410 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THE INITIAL BAND OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE CREST, AND MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE CENTRAL CASCADE
CREST THIS MORNING. A SECOND BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS AREA COULD AT LEAST CAUSE
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST EAST INTO THE
YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS AREA
THEN LOOKS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY LOOKS ONLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SHOWERS, BUT THUNDER MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH SHOWERS. THE AREA THAT COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM SOUTHERN WALLOWA COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO GRANT
COUNTY. THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE LEADING BAND OF MOISTURE OVERHEAD
AND MOVING EAST AT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SOME SLOP OVER PRECIP MAY CONTINUE OVER EXTREME
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, OTHERWISE THE AREA SHOULD
DRY OUT. THE REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY A
GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY FORECASTS DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DUE TO INCREASING HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WEST OF THE CASCADES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS INTO PORTIONS OF
THE BASIN ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL 5-8 DEGREES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON VERSUS THIS AFTERNOON. 90

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSING THROUGH NORTHEAST WASHINGTON FRIDAY WILL BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT PLACING
THE AREA UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE
SATURDAY. INSTABILITY AND LINGERING MOISTURE MAY TRIGGER A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY...A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH ABOUT 5 DEGREES
OF WARMING BY MONDAY. COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...WEAK FRONTAL BAND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS 120-200. WINDS 5-10KT THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 15-25KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING AND CLEARING
AFT 03Z. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  89  58  83  52 /  10  20   0   0
ALW  91  63  85  58 /  10  20   0   0
PSC  93  61  87  56 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  90  58  84  54 /  20   0   0   0
HRI  92  60  86  54 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  87  60  82  56 /  20   0   0   0
RDM  88  47  81  39 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  87  54  81  47 /  10  10  10  10
GCD  89  53  83  45 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  87  61  80  56 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/76/76







000
FXUS66 KMFR 191014
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
314 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM INDICATE THAT THE DEFORMATION AREA WILL
SHIFT EAST. THE MOST UNSTABLE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE
TRINITY ALPS AREA EASTWARD TO MEDICINE LAKE AND FROM WINTER RIM
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WARNERS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY WITH A COOL STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A MARINE PUSH TO BRING LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN AND POSSIBLY INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY THEN THE UPPER LOW AND THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GONE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND, POSSIBLY LONGER. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNEVENTFUL, DRY, AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
HINT AT A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AROUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THIS WOULD PRESENT A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WITH WARM AND DRY RIDGE
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/06Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE COASTAL VALLEYS...AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-
MORNING TUESDAY...THEN CLEAR TO VFR. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TUESDAY EVENING. INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN
SMOKE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MUCH OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT MON 18 AUG 2014...A THERMAL TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AT LEAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. MODERATE NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
GALES IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. AFTER THE GALE
POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE ON THE STRENGTH
OF THESE WINDS.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/MAS







000
FXUS66 KMFR 191014
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
314 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM INDICATE THAT THE DEFORMATION AREA WILL
SHIFT EAST. THE MOST UNSTABLE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE
TRINITY ALPS AREA EASTWARD TO MEDICINE LAKE AND FROM WINTER RIM
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WARNERS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY WITH A COOL STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A MARINE PUSH TO BRING LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN AND POSSIBLY INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY THEN THE UPPER LOW AND THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GONE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND, POSSIBLY LONGER. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNEVENTFUL, DRY, AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
HINT AT A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AROUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THIS WOULD PRESENT A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WITH WARM AND DRY RIDGE
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/06Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE COASTAL VALLEYS...AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-
MORNING TUESDAY...THEN CLEAR TO VFR. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TUESDAY EVENING. INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN
SMOKE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MUCH OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT MON 18 AUG 2014...A THERMAL TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AT LEAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. MODERATE NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
GALES IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. AFTER THE GALE
POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE ON THE STRENGTH
OF THESE WINDS.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/MAS






000
FXUS66 KPDT 190959
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
259 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THE INITIAL BAND OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE CREST, AND MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE CENTRAL CASCADE
CREST THIS MORNING. A SECOND BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS AREA COULD AT LEAST CAUSE
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST EAST INTO THE
YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS AREA
THEN LOOKS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY LOOKS ONLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SHOWERS, BUT THUNDER MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH SHOWERS. THE AREA THAT COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM SOUTHERN WALLOWA COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO GRANT
COUNTY. THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE LEADING BAND OF MOISTURE OVERHEAD
AND MOVING EAST AT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SOME SLOP OVER PRECIP MAY CONTINUE OVER EXTREME
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, OTHERWISE THE AREA SHOULD
DRY OUT. THE REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY A
GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY FORECASTS DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DUE TO INCREASING HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WEST OF THE CASCADES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS INTO PORTIONS OF
THE BASIN ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL 5-8 DEGREES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON VERSUS THIS AFTERNOON. 90

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSING THROUGH NORTHEAST WASHINGTON FRIDAY WILL BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT PLACING
THE AREA UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE
SATURDAY. INSTABILITY AND LINGERING MOISTURE MAY TRIGGER A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY...A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH ABOUT 5 DEGREES
OF WARMING BY MONDAY. COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...WEAK FRONTAL BAND
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH CEILINGS
120-200. WINDS 5-10KT TONIGHT INCREASING TO 15-25KT TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  89  58  83  52 /  10  20   0   0
ALW  91  63  85  58 /  10  20   0   0
PSC  93  61  87  56 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  90  58  84  54 /  20   0   0   0
HRI  92  60  86  54 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  87  60  82  56 /  20   0   0   0
RDM  88  47  81  39 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  87  54  81  47 /  10  10  10  10
GCD  89  53  83  45 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  87  61  80  56 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/76/76









000
FXUS66 KPQR 190903
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
203 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MORNING CLOUDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ALSO...POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
AT TIMES ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW THAT AFFECTED THE
REGION THE LAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH BETWEEN AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE
WEAK COLD FRONT IS ALREADY NEARLY ACROSS THE CASCADES AS INDICATED
BY SURFACE PRESSURES BOTTOMING OUT AND NOW RISING. IT HAS INDEED
PROVEN TO BE DRY ASIDE FROM A PERIOD OF LIGHT DRIZZLE ALONG THE
COAST A FEW HOURS AGO. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ALONG THE COAST FOR
THE TIME BEING WITH A LOW STRATUS DECK REMAINING AND NOT MUCH FOG TO
SPEAK OF NOW THAT THE FRONT HAS PASSED. WILL KEEP THE FOG AND
DRIZZLE MENTION IN FOR NOW, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONTAL EFFECTS SHOULD
SETTLE DOWN BY DAYBREAK WITH INCREASED STABILITY RETURNING AND THUS
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND OROGRAPHIC DRIZZLE. LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT
YET MAKING IT PAST THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES PER GROUND OBS BUT
LINGERING FRONTAL CIRRUS CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE VIEW FROM ABOVE.
WILL LET THE HIGHER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND THEN WAIT UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE BEFORE POTENTIALLY REMOVING THE CLOUDS FURTHER INLAND. WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND MORE SO FOR THE CENTRAL
COLUMBIA GORGE AS GRADIENTS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS SHOULD MAKE KITE FLYERS AND WINDSURFERS HAPPY.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE PACIFIC
UPPER RIDGE BECOMES DOMINANT WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING BECOMING
APPARENT ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS LEAVES THE PACNW UNDER BROAD
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN GENERALLY
BRINGS COASTAL STRATUS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. INLAND AREAS WILL
START OUT HAVING MORNING CLOUDS THEN CLEARING BUT EVEN THE INLAND
MOISTURE BECOMES LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH TIME AND FEEL INLAND AREAS MAY
STAY OUT OF THE MORNING CLOUDS COME THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT GRADUALLY
INCREASING WITH TIME. CENTRAL AND SOUTH VALLEY LOCATIONS FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE MARINE INFLUENCE COULD EVEN FLIRT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S FOR THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS. NEXT THREAT FOR ANY WEATHER OF
SIGNIFICANCE IS FOR FRIDAY WITH MODELS ADVERTISING A STRENGTHENING
CIRCULATION OVER THE INTERIOR PACNW. SO FAR...ANY CONVECTIVE IMPACTS
LOOK TO STAY WELL EAST OF THE AREA BUT SUBTLE WESTERLY SHIFTS MAY
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA. /JBONK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING STATUS QUO FOR THE UPPER PATTERN. THE
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW FROM FRIDAY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH WEAK
REINFORCING SHORTWAVES SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA.
ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW TRIED TO DIG OVER THE INTERIOR PACNW
MONDAY BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE WARMEST DAY ALONG THE COAST WITH SUNDAY ON TRACK FOR
INLAND AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ON TAP UNLESS THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOWS END UP PUSHING FURTHER WEST AS A RESULT OF THE OFFSHORE
UPPER RIDGE BECOMING STRONGER AND PUSHING EVEN FURTHER NORTH. /JBONK

&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY BEHIND WEAK
FRONT. STRATUS WILL PERSIST ALONG COAST...BUT LIFT FROM IFR THIS
AM TO LOW MVFR BY 19Z. INLAND REMAINS MOSTLY VFR UNDER VARIABLE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS OF LOW MVFR CIGS THAT
WILL SPREAD INTO SW WASH AND ALONG COLUMBIA RIVER TO KPDX/KTTD
BETWEEN 12Z AND 19Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LOW
MVFR CIGS PUSHING UP COLUMBIA RIVER WILL SPREAD INTO CLARK COUNTY
BY 13Z...THEN SPREADING S AND E AS FAR S AS KUAO. STRATUS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL 18Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING 10 TO 15 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KT AT TIMES. NOT MUCH CHANGE THIS WEEK AS OVERALL PATTERN OF
HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL PERSISTS.

W TO NW SWELL WILL RUN AT 6 TO 7 FT WITH PERIODS NEAR 7 SEC TODAY
THIS WILL CREATE STEEP WAVES...MAINLY FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL PUT
UP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STEEP SEAS ON THE WATERS FROM 10 TO 6O
MILES OFFSHORE. SEAS RELAX A BIT TONIGHT.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY ON THE OUTER
     WATERS...OR FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE FROM 10 TO 60
     NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 190903
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
203 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MORNING CLOUDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ALSO...POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
AT TIMES ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW THAT AFFECTED THE
REGION THE LAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH BETWEEN AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE
WEAK COLD FRONT IS ALREADY NEARLY ACROSS THE CASCADES AS INDICATED
BY SURFACE PRESSURES BOTTOMING OUT AND NOW RISING. IT HAS INDEED
PROVEN TO BE DRY ASIDE FROM A PERIOD OF LIGHT DRIZZLE ALONG THE
COAST A FEW HOURS AGO. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ALONG THE COAST FOR
THE TIME BEING WITH A LOW STRATUS DECK REMAINING AND NOT MUCH FOG TO
SPEAK OF NOW THAT THE FRONT HAS PASSED. WILL KEEP THE FOG AND
DRIZZLE MENTION IN FOR NOW, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONTAL EFFECTS SHOULD
SETTLE DOWN BY DAYBREAK WITH INCREASED STABILITY RETURNING AND THUS
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND OROGRAPHIC DRIZZLE. LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT
YET MAKING IT PAST THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES PER GROUND OBS BUT
LINGERING FRONTAL CIRRUS CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE VIEW FROM ABOVE.
WILL LET THE HIGHER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND THEN WAIT UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE BEFORE POTENTIALLY REMOVING THE CLOUDS FURTHER INLAND. WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND MORE SO FOR THE CENTRAL
COLUMBIA GORGE AS GRADIENTS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS SHOULD MAKE KITE FLYERS AND WINDSURFERS HAPPY.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE PACIFIC
UPPER RIDGE BECOMES DOMINANT WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING BECOMING
APPARENT ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS LEAVES THE PACNW UNDER BROAD
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN GENERALLY
BRINGS COASTAL STRATUS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. INLAND AREAS WILL
START OUT HAVING MORNING CLOUDS THEN CLEARING BUT EVEN THE INLAND
MOISTURE BECOMES LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH TIME AND FEEL INLAND AREAS MAY
STAY OUT OF THE MORNING CLOUDS COME THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT GRADUALLY
INCREASING WITH TIME. CENTRAL AND SOUTH VALLEY LOCATIONS FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE MARINE INFLUENCE COULD EVEN FLIRT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S FOR THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS. NEXT THREAT FOR ANY WEATHER OF
SIGNIFICANCE IS FOR FRIDAY WITH MODELS ADVERTISING A STRENGTHENING
CIRCULATION OVER THE INTERIOR PACNW. SO FAR...ANY CONVECTIVE IMPACTS
LOOK TO STAY WELL EAST OF THE AREA BUT SUBTLE WESTERLY SHIFTS MAY
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA. /JBONK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING STATUS QUO FOR THE UPPER PATTERN. THE
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW FROM FRIDAY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH WEAK
REINFORCING SHORTWAVES SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA.
ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW TRIED TO DIG OVER THE INTERIOR PACNW
MONDAY BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE WARMEST DAY ALONG THE COAST WITH SUNDAY ON TRACK FOR
INLAND AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ON TAP UNLESS THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOWS END UP PUSHING FURTHER WEST AS A RESULT OF THE OFFSHORE
UPPER RIDGE BECOMING STRONGER AND PUSHING EVEN FURTHER NORTH. /JBONK

&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY BEHIND WEAK
FRONT. STRATUS WILL PERSIST ALONG COAST...BUT LIFT FROM IFR THIS
AM TO LOW MVFR BY 19Z. INLAND REMAINS MOSTLY VFR UNDER VARIABLE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS OF LOW MVFR CIGS THAT
WILL SPREAD INTO SW WASH AND ALONG COLUMBIA RIVER TO KPDX/KTTD
BETWEEN 12Z AND 19Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LOW
MVFR CIGS PUSHING UP COLUMBIA RIVER WILL SPREAD INTO CLARK COUNTY
BY 13Z...THEN SPREADING S AND E AS FAR S AS KUAO. STRATUS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL 18Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING 10 TO 15 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KT AT TIMES. NOT MUCH CHANGE THIS WEEK AS OVERALL PATTERN OF
HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL PERSISTS.

W TO NW SWELL WILL RUN AT 6 TO 7 FT WITH PERIODS NEAR 7 SEC TODAY
THIS WILL CREATE STEEP WAVES...MAINLY FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL PUT
UP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STEEP SEAS ON THE WATERS FROM 10 TO 6O
MILES OFFSHORE. SEAS RELAX A BIT TONIGHT.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY ON THE OUTER
     WATERS...OR FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE FROM 10 TO 60
     NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 190844
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW IS
SINKING SOUTH ALONG THE CA COAST...NEAR SAN FRANCISCO AS OF 230 AM
MDT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW TODAY AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN. THIS WILL STRONGLY IMPACT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WE
BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF ERN OREGON AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...NAMELY...
TWIN FALLS AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES. THE IMPACT FROM THE INCOMING
TROUGH WILL BE FELT IN ERN OREGON...WHILE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGHEST OVER THE SE PART OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO LEFT A RELATIVELY
HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE
MTNS. TEMPS WILL BE HIGH AGAIN TODAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 90S IN
THE VALLEYS AND 80S IN THE MTNS. WITH HEIGHTS FALLING TOMORROW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 60S AND 70S IN THE MTNS. CONVECTION TOMORROW WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE ERN EDGE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE TROUGH. WITH THE
AXIS RIGHT ALONG THE OREGON/IDAHO BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON...MOST
OF THE LIFT WILL BE ON THE IDAHO SIDE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A RE-ENFORCING SHORTWAVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN IDAHO.
THIS LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA. HOWEVER...A TROUGH
AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOWS REMAINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST THIS WEEKEND...AROUND 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER TROUGH AND DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS SHOW A BLOCKING
PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
COULD KEEP THE REGION COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A WHILE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE IDAHO/NEVADA BORDER INTO
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SW IDAHO...AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
10 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 190844
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW IS
SINKING SOUTH ALONG THE CA COAST...NEAR SAN FRANCISCO AS OF 230 AM
MDT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW TODAY AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN. THIS WILL STRONGLY IMPACT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WE
BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF ERN OREGON AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...NAMELY...
TWIN FALLS AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES. THE IMPACT FROM THE INCOMING
TROUGH WILL BE FELT IN ERN OREGON...WHILE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGHEST OVER THE SE PART OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO LEFT A RELATIVELY
HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE
MTNS. TEMPS WILL BE HIGH AGAIN TODAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 90S IN
THE VALLEYS AND 80S IN THE MTNS. WITH HEIGHTS FALLING TOMORROW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 60S AND 70S IN THE MTNS. CONVECTION TOMORROW WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE ERN EDGE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE TROUGH. WITH THE
AXIS RIGHT ALONG THE OREGON/IDAHO BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON...MOST
OF THE LIFT WILL BE ON THE IDAHO SIDE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A RE-ENFORCING SHORTWAVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN IDAHO.
THIS LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA. HOWEVER...A TROUGH
AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOWS REMAINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST THIS WEEKEND...AROUND 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER TROUGH AND DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS SHOW A BLOCKING
PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
COULD KEEP THE REGION COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A WHILE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE IDAHO/NEVADA BORDER INTO
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SW IDAHO...AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
10 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS




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