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000
FXUS66 KPDT 280551
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
950 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN OREGON
THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES MAINLY OVER OREGON AND THE
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA ON SATURDAY. RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH WITH THE LOW...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA
BY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER DROP TO ZERO TO 10 DEGREES. SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. 94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. SNOW OVERNIGHT AT RDM BDN WITH CEILINGS
010-020. REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES CEILINGS 050-100 TONIGHT. SNOW
WILL END AT RDM BDN SATURDAY MORNING. ALL SITES WILL HAVE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING THE DAY. PSC WILL HAVE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 335 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN
REDEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATER TONIGHT. A DEFORMATION PRECIP
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST
OREGON NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THIS BAND WILL BECOME
ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER NEVADA. WITH THE PRECIP BAND OVER
EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON OVERNIGHT AND LOW TEMPS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING, EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
WILL SEE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS OUR
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON ZONES AS THE PRECIP BAND ADJUSTS IT`S
POSITION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS THE PRECIP OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OREGON WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY MORNING, AND LARGELY BE DONE BY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THESE WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE SIMCOE
HIGHLANDS. THESE WINDS MAY APPROACH SUSTAINED 30 MPH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORIES AS WOULD
LIKE TO SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE
FAIR, DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE
CASCADE CREST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM
THE NORTH ON MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA ON TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD AND
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ANY LOCAL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE CASCADES. COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  27  42  20  44 /  50  10   0   0
ALW  30  43  24  44 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  32  50  19  49 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  34  49  22  48 /  30   0   0   0
HRI  30  48  18  48 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  31  48  20  49 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  25  37   8  46 /  80  30   0   0
LGD  30  41  15  42 /  70  20   0   0
GCD  25  37  10  43 /  80  60   0   0
DLS  34  52  24  49 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94






000
FXUS66 KPDT 280551
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
950 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN OREGON
THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES MAINLY OVER OREGON AND THE
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA ON SATURDAY. RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH WITH THE LOW...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA
BY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER DROP TO ZERO TO 10 DEGREES. SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. 94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. SNOW OVERNIGHT AT RDM BDN WITH CEILINGS
010-020. REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES CEILINGS 050-100 TONIGHT. SNOW
WILL END AT RDM BDN SATURDAY MORNING. ALL SITES WILL HAVE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING THE DAY. PSC WILL HAVE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 335 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN
REDEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATER TONIGHT. A DEFORMATION PRECIP
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST
OREGON NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THIS BAND WILL BECOME
ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER NEVADA. WITH THE PRECIP BAND OVER
EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON OVERNIGHT AND LOW TEMPS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING, EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
WILL SEE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS OUR
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON ZONES AS THE PRECIP BAND ADJUSTS IT`S
POSITION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS THE PRECIP OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OREGON WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY MORNING, AND LARGELY BE DONE BY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THESE WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE SIMCOE
HIGHLANDS. THESE WINDS MAY APPROACH SUSTAINED 30 MPH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORIES AS WOULD
LIKE TO SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE
FAIR, DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE
CASCADE CREST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM
THE NORTH ON MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA ON TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD AND
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ANY LOCAL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE CASCADES. COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  27  42  20  44 /  50  10   0   0
ALW  30  43  24  44 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  32  50  19  49 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  34  49  22  48 /  30   0   0   0
HRI  30  48  18  48 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  31  48  20  49 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  25  37   8  46 /  80  30   0   0
LGD  30  41  15  42 /  70  20   0   0
GCD  25  37  10  43 /  80  60   0   0
DLS  34  52  24  49 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94






000
FXUS66 KPDT 280551
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
950 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN OREGON
THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES MAINLY OVER OREGON AND THE
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA ON SATURDAY. RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH WITH THE LOW...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA
BY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER DROP TO ZERO TO 10 DEGREES. SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. 94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. SNOW OVERNIGHT AT RDM BDN WITH CEILINGS
010-020. REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES CEILINGS 050-100 TONIGHT. SNOW
WILL END AT RDM BDN SATURDAY MORNING. ALL SITES WILL HAVE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING THE DAY. PSC WILL HAVE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 335 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN
REDEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATER TONIGHT. A DEFORMATION PRECIP
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST
OREGON NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THIS BAND WILL BECOME
ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER NEVADA. WITH THE PRECIP BAND OVER
EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON OVERNIGHT AND LOW TEMPS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING, EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
WILL SEE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS OUR
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON ZONES AS THE PRECIP BAND ADJUSTS IT`S
POSITION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS THE PRECIP OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OREGON WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY MORNING, AND LARGELY BE DONE BY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THESE WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE SIMCOE
HIGHLANDS. THESE WINDS MAY APPROACH SUSTAINED 30 MPH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORIES AS WOULD
LIKE TO SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE
FAIR, DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE
CASCADE CREST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM
THE NORTH ON MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA ON TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD AND
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ANY LOCAL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE CASCADES. COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  27  42  20  44 /  50  10   0   0
ALW  30  43  24  44 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  32  50  19  49 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  34  49  22  48 /  30   0   0   0
HRI  30  48  18  48 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  31  48  20  49 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  25  37   8  46 /  80  30   0   0
LGD  30  41  15  42 /  70  20   0   0
GCD  25  37  10  43 /  80  60   0   0
DLS  34  52  24  49 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94






000
FXUS66 KPDT 280551
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
950 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN OREGON
THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES MAINLY OVER OREGON AND THE
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA ON SATURDAY. RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH WITH THE LOW...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA
BY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER DROP TO ZERO TO 10 DEGREES. SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. 94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. SNOW OVERNIGHT AT RDM BDN WITH CEILINGS
010-020. REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES CEILINGS 050-100 TONIGHT. SNOW
WILL END AT RDM BDN SATURDAY MORNING. ALL SITES WILL HAVE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING THE DAY. PSC WILL HAVE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 335 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN
REDEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATER TONIGHT. A DEFORMATION PRECIP
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST
OREGON NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THIS BAND WILL BECOME
ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER NEVADA. WITH THE PRECIP BAND OVER
EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON OVERNIGHT AND LOW TEMPS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING, EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
WILL SEE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS OUR
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON ZONES AS THE PRECIP BAND ADJUSTS IT`S
POSITION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS THE PRECIP OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OREGON WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY MORNING, AND LARGELY BE DONE BY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THESE WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE SIMCOE
HIGHLANDS. THESE WINDS MAY APPROACH SUSTAINED 30 MPH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORIES AS WOULD
LIKE TO SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE
FAIR, DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE
CASCADE CREST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM
THE NORTH ON MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA ON TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD AND
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ANY LOCAL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE CASCADES. COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  27  42  20  44 /  50  10   0   0
ALW  30  43  24  44 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  32  50  19  49 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  34  49  22  48 /  30   0   0   0
HRI  30  48  18  48 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  31  48  20  49 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  25  37   8  46 /  80  30   0   0
LGD  30  41  15  42 /  70  20   0   0
GCD  25  37  10  43 /  80  60   0   0
DLS  34  52  24  49 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94






000
FXUS66 KPDT 280551
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
950 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN OREGON
THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES MAINLY OVER OREGON AND THE
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA ON SATURDAY. RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH WITH THE LOW...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA
BY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER DROP TO ZERO TO 10 DEGREES. SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. 94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. SNOW OVERNIGHT AT RDM BDN WITH CEILINGS
010-020. REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES CEILINGS 050-100 TONIGHT. SNOW
WILL END AT RDM BDN SATURDAY MORNING. ALL SITES WILL HAVE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING THE DAY. PSC WILL HAVE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 335 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN
REDEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATER TONIGHT. A DEFORMATION PRECIP
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST
OREGON NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THIS BAND WILL BECOME
ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER NEVADA. WITH THE PRECIP BAND OVER
EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON OVERNIGHT AND LOW TEMPS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING, EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
WILL SEE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS OUR
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON ZONES AS THE PRECIP BAND ADJUSTS IT`S
POSITION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS THE PRECIP OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OREGON WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY MORNING, AND LARGELY BE DONE BY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THESE WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE SIMCOE
HIGHLANDS. THESE WINDS MAY APPROACH SUSTAINED 30 MPH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORIES AS WOULD
LIKE TO SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE
FAIR, DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE
CASCADE CREST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM
THE NORTH ON MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA ON TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD AND
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ANY LOCAL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE CASCADES. COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  27  42  20  44 /  50  10   0   0
ALW  30  43  24  44 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  32  50  19  49 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  34  49  22  48 /  30   0   0   0
HRI  30  48  18  48 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  31  48  20  49 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  25  37   8  46 /  80  30   0   0
LGD  30  41  15  42 /  70  20   0   0
GCD  25  37  10  43 /  80  60   0   0
DLS  34  52  24  49 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94






000
FXUS66 KPDT 280551
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
950 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN OREGON
THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES MAINLY OVER OREGON AND THE
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA ON SATURDAY. RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH WITH THE LOW...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA
BY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER DROP TO ZERO TO 10 DEGREES. SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. 94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. SNOW OVERNIGHT AT RDM BDN WITH CEILINGS
010-020. REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES CEILINGS 050-100 TONIGHT. SNOW
WILL END AT RDM BDN SATURDAY MORNING. ALL SITES WILL HAVE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING THE DAY. PSC WILL HAVE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 335 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN
REDEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATER TONIGHT. A DEFORMATION PRECIP
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST
OREGON NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THIS BAND WILL BECOME
ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER NEVADA. WITH THE PRECIP BAND OVER
EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON OVERNIGHT AND LOW TEMPS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING, EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
WILL SEE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS OUR
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON ZONES AS THE PRECIP BAND ADJUSTS IT`S
POSITION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS THE PRECIP OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OREGON WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY MORNING, AND LARGELY BE DONE BY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THESE WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE SIMCOE
HIGHLANDS. THESE WINDS MAY APPROACH SUSTAINED 30 MPH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORIES AS WOULD
LIKE TO SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE
FAIR, DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE
CASCADE CREST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM
THE NORTH ON MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA ON TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD AND
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ANY LOCAL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE CASCADES. COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  27  42  20  44 /  50  10   0   0
ALW  30  43  24  44 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  32  50  19  49 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  34  49  22  48 /  30   0   0   0
HRI  30  48  18  48 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  31  48  20  49 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  25  37   8  46 /  80  30   0   0
LGD  30  41  15  42 /  70  20   0   0
GCD  25  37  10  43 /  80  60   0   0
DLS  34  52  24  49 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94






  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 280443 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
840 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES... AND A FEW
MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEFORE SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEEKEND WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY
COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
FOR DRIER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SUGGESTED THE UPPER LOW WAS
SLOWLY MOVING S OVER WESTERN OREGON...PROBABLY IN THE VICINITY OF
LINN COUNTY. RADAR ECHOES...WHILE STILL SCATTERED ACROSS MUCH OF
OREOGN AND WESTERN WA...HAVE SHOWN SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER NW OREGON AND WESTERN WA. AS
THE LOW CONTINUES S OVERNIGHT AND WITH DRYING KICKING IN WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS
DECREASE OVERNIGHT FROM N TO S. SNOWFALL RATES AT THE SNOWTEL SITES
IN THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE BEEN RATHER
MODEST...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER 6 HOURS...AND GENERALLY
LIMITED TO 5K FT AND ABOVE. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP POPS HIGH ACROSS THE
S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BUT DROP THE
ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN LANE COUNTY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS OUR UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA
AND FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WASHINGTON
SATURDAY...WITH THE RESULTING DRY N-NE FLOW CLEARING US OUT QUICKLY.
BY MIDDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT BUT WITH
SOME BLUSTERY NORTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS STUCK IN THE LOWER 50S. THE
N-NE FLOW AND DRY AIR MASS MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG TO FORM THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT IN THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS LESS
WIND AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT DISTURBANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE INTO THE PAC NW
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE FINER
DETAILS...BUT THE BROAD CONSENSUS KEEPS TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS DURING
THIS EVENT. ONE WILL DIG SE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...
FOLLOWED THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE REMAINS WEAKER AND TRACKS DOWN THE BC
COAST. 12Z/18Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL HAVE ENOUGH OVERWATER TRAJECTORY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS SUN NIGHT/MON...WHILE THE 12Z GEM KEEPS OUR
SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HELD
POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. IF WE
DO GET PRECIP...THE CASCADES COULD GET ANOTHER DUSTING OF SNOW BUT IT
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION RETURNS TO WHERE IT
HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER TUE/WED...OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
TUE/WED...PROBABLY LONGER. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH
ONLY A SMALL PIECE OF IT PUSHING INTO THE MID-COLUMBIA BASIN. THUS
EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHTS WITH SUNNY DAYS AND AFTERNOON
TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION. HELD POPS BELOW CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION ANCHORED NEAR THE
WEST COAST.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TRENDING TOWARDS PREDOMINANTLY VFR TONIGHT WHERE THEY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGEST AT
KONP...KEUG AND KSLE SO MVFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY EVEN LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP TEMPORARILY IN THE SHORT TERM AND POSSIBLY
LAST THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 15Z SATURDAY. 10 TO 20 KT NORTH TO EAST
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ENSURE ALL LOCATIONS TURN VFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITE THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS GUSTS OF 25 KT WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE INNER WATERS COULD
EXPERIENCE THESE HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY. OPTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT OF
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED...PARTICULARLY THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST INNER WATERS.

EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TEMPORARILY INCREASE AGAIN. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS MAY BE NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 280443 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
840 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES... AND A FEW
MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEFORE SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEEKEND WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY
COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
FOR DRIER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SUGGESTED THE UPPER LOW WAS
SLOWLY MOVING S OVER WESTERN OREGON...PROBABLY IN THE VICINITY OF
LINN COUNTY. RADAR ECHOES...WHILE STILL SCATTERED ACROSS MUCH OF
OREOGN AND WESTERN WA...HAVE SHOWN SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER NW OREGON AND WESTERN WA. AS
THE LOW CONTINUES S OVERNIGHT AND WITH DRYING KICKING IN WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS
DECREASE OVERNIGHT FROM N TO S. SNOWFALL RATES AT THE SNOWTEL SITES
IN THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE BEEN RATHER
MODEST...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER 6 HOURS...AND GENERALLY
LIMITED TO 5K FT AND ABOVE. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP POPS HIGH ACROSS THE
S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BUT DROP THE
ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN LANE COUNTY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS OUR UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA
AND FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WASHINGTON
SATURDAY...WITH THE RESULTING DRY N-NE FLOW CLEARING US OUT QUICKLY.
BY MIDDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT BUT WITH
SOME BLUSTERY NORTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS STUCK IN THE LOWER 50S. THE
N-NE FLOW AND DRY AIR MASS MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG TO FORM THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT IN THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS LESS
WIND AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT DISTURBANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE INTO THE PAC NW
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE FINER
DETAILS...BUT THE BROAD CONSENSUS KEEPS TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS DURING
THIS EVENT. ONE WILL DIG SE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...
FOLLOWED THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE REMAINS WEAKER AND TRACKS DOWN THE BC
COAST. 12Z/18Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL HAVE ENOUGH OVERWATER TRAJECTORY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS SUN NIGHT/MON...WHILE THE 12Z GEM KEEPS OUR
SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HELD
POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. IF WE
DO GET PRECIP...THE CASCADES COULD GET ANOTHER DUSTING OF SNOW BUT IT
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION RETURNS TO WHERE IT
HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER TUE/WED...OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
TUE/WED...PROBABLY LONGER. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH
ONLY A SMALL PIECE OF IT PUSHING INTO THE MID-COLUMBIA BASIN. THUS
EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHTS WITH SUNNY DAYS AND AFTERNOON
TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION. HELD POPS BELOW CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION ANCHORED NEAR THE
WEST COAST.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TRENDING TOWARDS PREDOMINANTLY VFR TONIGHT WHERE THEY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGEST AT
KONP...KEUG AND KSLE SO MVFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY EVEN LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP TEMPORARILY IN THE SHORT TERM AND POSSIBLY
LAST THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 15Z SATURDAY. 10 TO 20 KT NORTH TO EAST
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ENSURE ALL LOCATIONS TURN VFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITE THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS GUSTS OF 25 KT WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE INNER WATERS COULD
EXPERIENCE THESE HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY. OPTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT OF
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED...PARTICULARLY THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST INNER WATERS.

EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TEMPORARILY INCREASE AGAIN. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS MAY BE NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 280439
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
840 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES... AND A FEW
MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEFORE SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEEKEND WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY
COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
FOR DRIER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SUGGESTED THE UPPER LOW WAS
SLOWLY MOVING S OVER WESTERN OREGON...PROBABLY IN THE VICINITY OF
LINN COUNTY. RADAR ECHOES...WHILE STILL SCATTERED ACROSS MUCH OF
OREOGN AND WESTERN WA...HAVE SHOWN SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER NW OREGON AND WESTERN WA. AS
THE LOW CONTINUES S OVERNIGHT AND WITH DRYING KICKING IN WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS
DECREASE OVERNIGHT FROM N TO S. SNOWFALL RATES AT THE SNOWTEL SITES
IN THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE BEEN RATHER
MODEST...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER 6 HOURS...AND GENERALLY
LIMITED TO 5K FT AND ABOVE. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP POPS HIGH ACROSS THE
S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BUT DROP THE
ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN LANE COUNTY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS OUR UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA
AND FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WASHINGTON
SATURDAY...WITH THE RESULTING DRY N-NE FLOW CLEARING US OUT QUICKLY.
BY MIDDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT BUT WITH
SOME BLUSTERY NORTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS STUCK IN THE LOWER 50S. THE
N-NE FLOW AND DRY AIR MASS MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG TO FORM THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT IN THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS LESS
WIND AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT DISTURBANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE INTO THE PAC NW
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE FINER
DETAILS...BUT THE BROAD CONSENSUS KEEPS TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS DURING
THIS EVENT. ONE WILL DIG SE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...
FOLLOWED THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE REMAINS WEAKER AND TRACKS DOWN THE BC
COAST. 12Z/18Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL HAVE ENOUGH OVERWATER TRAJECTORY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS SUN NIGHT/MON...WHILE THE 12Z GEM KEEPS OUR
SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HELD
POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. IF WE
DO GET PRECIP...THE CASCADES COULD GET ANOTHER DUSTING OF SNOW BUT IT
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION RETURNS TO WHERE IT
HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER TUE/WED...OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
TUE/WED...PROBABLY LONGER. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH
ONLY A SMALL PIECE OF IT PUSHING INTO THE MID-COLUMBIA BASIN. THUS
EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHTS WITH SUNNY DAYS AND AFTERNOON
TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION. HELD POPS BELOW CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION ANCHORED NEAR THE
WEST COAST.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TRENDING TOWARDS PREDOMINANTLY VFR TONIGHT WHERE THEY WILL PERSIST
THROGUH 06Z SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGEST AT KONP...KEUG
AND KSLE SO MVFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE SHORT TERM AND PERIST THROUGH 15Z SATRUDAY. EXPECT
A LOT OF 10 TO 20 KT NORTH TO EAST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITE THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS GUSTS OF 25 KT WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE INNER WATERS COULD
EXPERIENCE THESE HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY. OPTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT
OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED...PARTICULARLY THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST INNER WATERS.

EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BECOME INCREASINLY DOMINANT
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN LOW WINDS AND
SEAS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 280439
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
840 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES... AND A FEW
MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEFORE SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEEKEND WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY
COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
FOR DRIER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SUGGESTED THE UPPER LOW WAS
SLOWLY MOVING S OVER WESTERN OREGON...PROBABLY IN THE VICINITY OF
LINN COUNTY. RADAR ECHOES...WHILE STILL SCATTERED ACROSS MUCH OF
OREOGN AND WESTERN WA...HAVE SHOWN SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER NW OREGON AND WESTERN WA. AS
THE LOW CONTINUES S OVERNIGHT AND WITH DRYING KICKING IN WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS
DECREASE OVERNIGHT FROM N TO S. SNOWFALL RATES AT THE SNOWTEL SITES
IN THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE BEEN RATHER
MODEST...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER 6 HOURS...AND GENERALLY
LIMITED TO 5K FT AND ABOVE. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP POPS HIGH ACROSS THE
S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BUT DROP THE
ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN LANE COUNTY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS OUR UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA
AND FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WASHINGTON
SATURDAY...WITH THE RESULTING DRY N-NE FLOW CLEARING US OUT QUICKLY.
BY MIDDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT BUT WITH
SOME BLUSTERY NORTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS STUCK IN THE LOWER 50S. THE
N-NE FLOW AND DRY AIR MASS MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG TO FORM THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT IN THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS LESS
WIND AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT DISTURBANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE INTO THE PAC NW
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE FINER
DETAILS...BUT THE BROAD CONSENSUS KEEPS TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS DURING
THIS EVENT. ONE WILL DIG SE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...
FOLLOWED THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE REMAINS WEAKER AND TRACKS DOWN THE BC
COAST. 12Z/18Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL HAVE ENOUGH OVERWATER TRAJECTORY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS SUN NIGHT/MON...WHILE THE 12Z GEM KEEPS OUR
SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HELD
POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. IF WE
DO GET PRECIP...THE CASCADES COULD GET ANOTHER DUSTING OF SNOW BUT IT
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION RETURNS TO WHERE IT
HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER TUE/WED...OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
TUE/WED...PROBABLY LONGER. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH
ONLY A SMALL PIECE OF IT PUSHING INTO THE MID-COLUMBIA BASIN. THUS
EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHTS WITH SUNNY DAYS AND AFTERNOON
TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION. HELD POPS BELOW CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION ANCHORED NEAR THE
WEST COAST.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TRENDING TOWARDS PREDOMINANTLY VFR TONIGHT WHERE THEY WILL PERSIST
THROGUH 06Z SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGEST AT KONP...KEUG
AND KSLE SO MVFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE SHORT TERM AND PERIST THROUGH 15Z SATRUDAY. EXPECT
A LOT OF 10 TO 20 KT NORTH TO EAST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITE THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS GUSTS OF 25 KT WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE INNER WATERS COULD
EXPERIENCE THESE HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY. OPTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT
OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED...PARTICULARLY THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST INNER WATERS.

EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BECOME INCREASINLY DOMINANT
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN LOW WINDS AND
SEAS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 280439
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
840 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES... AND A FEW
MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEFORE SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEEKEND WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY
COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
FOR DRIER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SUGGESTED THE UPPER LOW WAS
SLOWLY MOVING S OVER WESTERN OREGON...PROBABLY IN THE VICINITY OF
LINN COUNTY. RADAR ECHOES...WHILE STILL SCATTERED ACROSS MUCH OF
OREOGN AND WESTERN WA...HAVE SHOWN SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER NW OREGON AND WESTERN WA. AS
THE LOW CONTINUES S OVERNIGHT AND WITH DRYING KICKING IN WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS
DECREASE OVERNIGHT FROM N TO S. SNOWFALL RATES AT THE SNOWTEL SITES
IN THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE BEEN RATHER
MODEST...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER 6 HOURS...AND GENERALLY
LIMITED TO 5K FT AND ABOVE. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP POPS HIGH ACROSS THE
S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BUT DROP THE
ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN LANE COUNTY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS OUR UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA
AND FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WASHINGTON
SATURDAY...WITH THE RESULTING DRY N-NE FLOW CLEARING US OUT QUICKLY.
BY MIDDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT BUT WITH
SOME BLUSTERY NORTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS STUCK IN THE LOWER 50S. THE
N-NE FLOW AND DRY AIR MASS MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG TO FORM THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT IN THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS LESS
WIND AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT DISTURBANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE INTO THE PAC NW
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE FINER
DETAILS...BUT THE BROAD CONSENSUS KEEPS TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS DURING
THIS EVENT. ONE WILL DIG SE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...
FOLLOWED THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE REMAINS WEAKER AND TRACKS DOWN THE BC
COAST. 12Z/18Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL HAVE ENOUGH OVERWATER TRAJECTORY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS SUN NIGHT/MON...WHILE THE 12Z GEM KEEPS OUR
SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HELD
POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. IF WE
DO GET PRECIP...THE CASCADES COULD GET ANOTHER DUSTING OF SNOW BUT IT
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION RETURNS TO WHERE IT
HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER TUE/WED...OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
TUE/WED...PROBABLY LONGER. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH
ONLY A SMALL PIECE OF IT PUSHING INTO THE MID-COLUMBIA BASIN. THUS
EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHTS WITH SUNNY DAYS AND AFTERNOON
TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION. HELD POPS BELOW CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION ANCHORED NEAR THE
WEST COAST.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TRENDING TOWARDS PREDOMINANTLY VFR TONIGHT WHERE THEY WILL PERSIST
THROGUH 06Z SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGEST AT KONP...KEUG
AND KSLE SO MVFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE SHORT TERM AND PERIST THROUGH 15Z SATRUDAY. EXPECT
A LOT OF 10 TO 20 KT NORTH TO EAST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITE THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS GUSTS OF 25 KT WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE INNER WATERS COULD
EXPERIENCE THESE HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY. OPTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT
OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED...PARTICULARLY THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST INNER WATERS.

EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BECOME INCREASINLY DOMINANT
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN LOW WINDS AND
SEAS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMFR 280438
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN MADE THIS EVENING. SNOW IS
COMING DOWN PRETTY GOOD IN THE CASCADES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS
AND LOW VISIBILITIES FROM DEAD INDIAN MEMORIAL ROAD AND LAKE OF
THE WOODS AREA NORTH THROUGH DIAMOND AND CRATER LAKES. THE 28/00Z
SOUNDING FROM MEDFORD SHOWED DEEP, MOIST WESTERLY FLOW RIGHT INTO
THE CASCADES, AND MODELS CONTINUE THIS THROUGH THE EVENING, AND
THEN EVENTUALLY WIND IT DOWN OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHERLY (PARALLEL TO THE CASCADES). OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW RAIN
RATES OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH IN THE LAST HOUR FROM COOS COUNTY INTO
DOUGLAS COUNTY, SO THERE IS STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE YET TO MOVE
THROUGH. I`VE RAISED POPS AND NUDGED QPF UPWARDS FROM THE UMPQUA
BASIN THROUGH THE CASCADES FOR THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN THE CASCADES LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK AND WILL BE
CONTINUED.

SO FAR, SISKIYOU SUMMIT STILL LOOKS WET JUDGING BY THE
CAMERAS, AND ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING PER METRO
DATA. BUT AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING,
SO SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO, WE WILL PICK UP SOME
SNOW THERE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHERLY (IE UPSLOPE INTO SISKIYOU SUMMIT) AND TEMPERATURES DROP
FURTHER. METRO FORECASTS KEEP ROAD TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING,
BUT MOTORISTS SHOULD STILL USE CAUTION SINCE IF SNOW COMES DOWN
HEAVILY ENOUGH, IT COULD ACCUMULATE DESPITE ROAD TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO RAISE POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. AS COLD LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH,
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THESE AREAS WILL PRODUCE SNOWFALL, AND ALL THE
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THESE
LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IT IS STILL
RATHER WARM TO THE NORTH, SO THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS ONLY
MODERATE, AND I WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS AT
THIS TIME. NEXT SHIFT WILL WATCH THAT CLOSELY THOUGH.

FOR THE REST OF US, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND THEN
WIND DOWN TONIGHT WITH A DRY WEEKEND ON TAP. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUE, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIG AND AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO
AROUND 4000 FT MSL. AS SHOWERS DIMINISH, MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED IFR
CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN, INCLUDING KRBG, WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE AND PARTIAL
CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST, FRIDAY, 27 FEB, 2015...LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AND WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...AND VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
STRONG WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS...MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK. SK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES, AND EVEN A STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN
SPOTTY AT BEST, BUT AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR ROADS
DESPITE ONGOING SNOWFALL, LIKELY A RESULT OF WARMER GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME INSOLATION. HOWEVER, ONCE TEMPERATURES
COOL LATER THIS EVENING, MUCH OF THAT SNOWMELT COULD REFREEZE, AND
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL, ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE
SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN ORDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HAZARDS RESULTING FOR THESE CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE COLD AIR AND
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AT THAT TIME, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION, AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST. WHILE THIS MEANS
LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, IT DOES MEAN THAT THE SOUTHWEST
OREGON COAST WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A HEALTHY CHETCO
EFFECT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND CLEARING
SKIES, SUSPECT THAT FOG MAY BE A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN, DRY OFFSHORE FLOW COULD LIMIT
FORMATION. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL OVERNIGHT
COOLING, WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO BE COLDER THAN THOSE
SEEN LATELY, ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY NEED TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH,
ARRIVING BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR, BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 3000 TO
4000 FEET, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE DYNAMICS OR THE MOISTURE OF
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS, EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
BEGIN MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. -BPN

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OFFSHORE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.  MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE REGION.  AT
THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING SOME OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE MOUNTAINS.

LATER IN THE WEEK, ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST ON FRIDAY BUT VARIABILITY REMAINS ON THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WHETHER THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE
COAST OR REMAIN OFFSHORE. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND ON FRIDAY.
/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 280438
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN MADE THIS EVENING. SNOW IS
COMING DOWN PRETTY GOOD IN THE CASCADES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS
AND LOW VISIBILITIES FROM DEAD INDIAN MEMORIAL ROAD AND LAKE OF
THE WOODS AREA NORTH THROUGH DIAMOND AND CRATER LAKES. THE 28/00Z
SOUNDING FROM MEDFORD SHOWED DEEP, MOIST WESTERLY FLOW RIGHT INTO
THE CASCADES, AND MODELS CONTINUE THIS THROUGH THE EVENING, AND
THEN EVENTUALLY WIND IT DOWN OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHERLY (PARALLEL TO THE CASCADES). OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW RAIN
RATES OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH IN THE LAST HOUR FROM COOS COUNTY INTO
DOUGLAS COUNTY, SO THERE IS STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE YET TO MOVE
THROUGH. I`VE RAISED POPS AND NUDGED QPF UPWARDS FROM THE UMPQUA
BASIN THROUGH THE CASCADES FOR THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN THE CASCADES LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK AND WILL BE
CONTINUED.

SO FAR, SISKIYOU SUMMIT STILL LOOKS WET JUDGING BY THE
CAMERAS, AND ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING PER METRO
DATA. BUT AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING,
SO SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO, WE WILL PICK UP SOME
SNOW THERE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHERLY (IE UPSLOPE INTO SISKIYOU SUMMIT) AND TEMPERATURES DROP
FURTHER. METRO FORECASTS KEEP ROAD TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING,
BUT MOTORISTS SHOULD STILL USE CAUTION SINCE IF SNOW COMES DOWN
HEAVILY ENOUGH, IT COULD ACCUMULATE DESPITE ROAD TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO RAISE POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. AS COLD LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH,
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THESE AREAS WILL PRODUCE SNOWFALL, AND ALL THE
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THESE
LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IT IS STILL
RATHER WARM TO THE NORTH, SO THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS ONLY
MODERATE, AND I WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS AT
THIS TIME. NEXT SHIFT WILL WATCH THAT CLOSELY THOUGH.

FOR THE REST OF US, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND THEN
WIND DOWN TONIGHT WITH A DRY WEEKEND ON TAP. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUE, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIG AND AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO
AROUND 4000 FT MSL. AS SHOWERS DIMINISH, MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED IFR
CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN, INCLUDING KRBG, WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE AND PARTIAL
CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST, FRIDAY, 27 FEB, 2015...LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AND WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...AND VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
STRONG WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS...MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK. SK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES, AND EVEN A STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN
SPOTTY AT BEST, BUT AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR ROADS
DESPITE ONGOING SNOWFALL, LIKELY A RESULT OF WARMER GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME INSOLATION. HOWEVER, ONCE TEMPERATURES
COOL LATER THIS EVENING, MUCH OF THAT SNOWMELT COULD REFREEZE, AND
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL, ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE
SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN ORDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HAZARDS RESULTING FOR THESE CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE COLD AIR AND
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AT THAT TIME, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION, AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST. WHILE THIS MEANS
LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, IT DOES MEAN THAT THE SOUTHWEST
OREGON COAST WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A HEALTHY CHETCO
EFFECT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND CLEARING
SKIES, SUSPECT THAT FOG MAY BE A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN, DRY OFFSHORE FLOW COULD LIMIT
FORMATION. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL OVERNIGHT
COOLING, WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO BE COLDER THAN THOSE
SEEN LATELY, ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY NEED TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH,
ARRIVING BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR, BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 3000 TO
4000 FEET, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE DYNAMICS OR THE MOISTURE OF
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS, EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
BEGIN MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. -BPN

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OFFSHORE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.  MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE REGION.  AT
THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING SOME OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE MOUNTAINS.

LATER IN THE WEEK, ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST ON FRIDAY BUT VARIABILITY REMAINS ON THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WHETHER THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE
COAST OR REMAIN OFFSHORE. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND ON FRIDAY.
/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 280438
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN MADE THIS EVENING. SNOW IS
COMING DOWN PRETTY GOOD IN THE CASCADES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS
AND LOW VISIBILITIES FROM DEAD INDIAN MEMORIAL ROAD AND LAKE OF
THE WOODS AREA NORTH THROUGH DIAMOND AND CRATER LAKES. THE 28/00Z
SOUNDING FROM MEDFORD SHOWED DEEP, MOIST WESTERLY FLOW RIGHT INTO
THE CASCADES, AND MODELS CONTINUE THIS THROUGH THE EVENING, AND
THEN EVENTUALLY WIND IT DOWN OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHERLY (PARALLEL TO THE CASCADES). OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW RAIN
RATES OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH IN THE LAST HOUR FROM COOS COUNTY INTO
DOUGLAS COUNTY, SO THERE IS STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE YET TO MOVE
THROUGH. I`VE RAISED POPS AND NUDGED QPF UPWARDS FROM THE UMPQUA
BASIN THROUGH THE CASCADES FOR THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN THE CASCADES LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK AND WILL BE
CONTINUED.

SO FAR, SISKIYOU SUMMIT STILL LOOKS WET JUDGING BY THE
CAMERAS, AND ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING PER METRO
DATA. BUT AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING,
SO SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO, WE WILL PICK UP SOME
SNOW THERE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHERLY (IE UPSLOPE INTO SISKIYOU SUMMIT) AND TEMPERATURES DROP
FURTHER. METRO FORECASTS KEEP ROAD TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING,
BUT MOTORISTS SHOULD STILL USE CAUTION SINCE IF SNOW COMES DOWN
HEAVILY ENOUGH, IT COULD ACCUMULATE DESPITE ROAD TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO RAISE POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. AS COLD LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH,
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THESE AREAS WILL PRODUCE SNOWFALL, AND ALL THE
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THESE
LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IT IS STILL
RATHER WARM TO THE NORTH, SO THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS ONLY
MODERATE, AND I WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS AT
THIS TIME. NEXT SHIFT WILL WATCH THAT CLOSELY THOUGH.

FOR THE REST OF US, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND THEN
WIND DOWN TONIGHT WITH A DRY WEEKEND ON TAP. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUE, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIG AND AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO
AROUND 4000 FT MSL. AS SHOWERS DIMINISH, MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED IFR
CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN, INCLUDING KRBG, WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE AND PARTIAL
CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST, FRIDAY, 27 FEB, 2015...LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AND WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...AND VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
STRONG WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS...MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK. SK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES, AND EVEN A STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN
SPOTTY AT BEST, BUT AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR ROADS
DESPITE ONGOING SNOWFALL, LIKELY A RESULT OF WARMER GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME INSOLATION. HOWEVER, ONCE TEMPERATURES
COOL LATER THIS EVENING, MUCH OF THAT SNOWMELT COULD REFREEZE, AND
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL, ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE
SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN ORDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HAZARDS RESULTING FOR THESE CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE COLD AIR AND
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AT THAT TIME, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION, AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST. WHILE THIS MEANS
LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, IT DOES MEAN THAT THE SOUTHWEST
OREGON COAST WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A HEALTHY CHETCO
EFFECT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND CLEARING
SKIES, SUSPECT THAT FOG MAY BE A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN, DRY OFFSHORE FLOW COULD LIMIT
FORMATION. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL OVERNIGHT
COOLING, WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO BE COLDER THAN THOSE
SEEN LATELY, ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY NEED TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH,
ARRIVING BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR, BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 3000 TO
4000 FEET, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE DYNAMICS OR THE MOISTURE OF
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS, EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
BEGIN MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. -BPN

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OFFSHORE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.  MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE REGION.  AT
THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING SOME OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE MOUNTAINS.

LATER IN THE WEEK, ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST ON FRIDAY BUT VARIABILITY REMAINS ON THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WHETHER THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE
COAST OR REMAIN OFFSHORE. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND ON FRIDAY.
/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 280438
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN MADE THIS EVENING. SNOW IS
COMING DOWN PRETTY GOOD IN THE CASCADES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS
AND LOW VISIBILITIES FROM DEAD INDIAN MEMORIAL ROAD AND LAKE OF
THE WOODS AREA NORTH THROUGH DIAMOND AND CRATER LAKES. THE 28/00Z
SOUNDING FROM MEDFORD SHOWED DEEP, MOIST WESTERLY FLOW RIGHT INTO
THE CASCADES, AND MODELS CONTINUE THIS THROUGH THE EVENING, AND
THEN EVENTUALLY WIND IT DOWN OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHERLY (PARALLEL TO THE CASCADES). OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW RAIN
RATES OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH IN THE LAST HOUR FROM COOS COUNTY INTO
DOUGLAS COUNTY, SO THERE IS STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE YET TO MOVE
THROUGH. I`VE RAISED POPS AND NUDGED QPF UPWARDS FROM THE UMPQUA
BASIN THROUGH THE CASCADES FOR THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN THE CASCADES LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK AND WILL BE
CONTINUED.

SO FAR, SISKIYOU SUMMIT STILL LOOKS WET JUDGING BY THE
CAMERAS, AND ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING PER METRO
DATA. BUT AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING,
SO SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO, WE WILL PICK UP SOME
SNOW THERE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHERLY (IE UPSLOPE INTO SISKIYOU SUMMIT) AND TEMPERATURES DROP
FURTHER. METRO FORECASTS KEEP ROAD TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING,
BUT MOTORISTS SHOULD STILL USE CAUTION SINCE IF SNOW COMES DOWN
HEAVILY ENOUGH, IT COULD ACCUMULATE DESPITE ROAD TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO RAISE POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. AS COLD LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH,
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THESE AREAS WILL PRODUCE SNOWFALL, AND ALL THE
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THESE
LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IT IS STILL
RATHER WARM TO THE NORTH, SO THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS ONLY
MODERATE, AND I WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS AT
THIS TIME. NEXT SHIFT WILL WATCH THAT CLOSELY THOUGH.

FOR THE REST OF US, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND THEN
WIND DOWN TONIGHT WITH A DRY WEEKEND ON TAP. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUE, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIG AND AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO
AROUND 4000 FT MSL. AS SHOWERS DIMINISH, MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED IFR
CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN, INCLUDING KRBG, WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE AND PARTIAL
CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST, FRIDAY, 27 FEB, 2015...LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AND WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...AND VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
STRONG WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS...MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK. SK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES, AND EVEN A STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN
SPOTTY AT BEST, BUT AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR ROADS
DESPITE ONGOING SNOWFALL, LIKELY A RESULT OF WARMER GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME INSOLATION. HOWEVER, ONCE TEMPERATURES
COOL LATER THIS EVENING, MUCH OF THAT SNOWMELT COULD REFREEZE, AND
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL, ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE
SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN ORDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HAZARDS RESULTING FOR THESE CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE COLD AIR AND
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AT THAT TIME, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION, AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST. WHILE THIS MEANS
LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, IT DOES MEAN THAT THE SOUTHWEST
OREGON COAST WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A HEALTHY CHETCO
EFFECT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND CLEARING
SKIES, SUSPECT THAT FOG MAY BE A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN, DRY OFFSHORE FLOW COULD LIMIT
FORMATION. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL OVERNIGHT
COOLING, WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO BE COLDER THAN THOSE
SEEN LATELY, ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY NEED TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH,
ARRIVING BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR, BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 3000 TO
4000 FEET, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE DYNAMICS OR THE MOISTURE OF
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS, EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
BEGIN MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. -BPN

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OFFSHORE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.  MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE REGION.  AT
THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING SOME OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE MOUNTAINS.

LATER IN THE WEEK, ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST ON FRIDAY BUT VARIABILITY REMAINS ON THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WHETHER THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE
COAST OR REMAIN OFFSHORE. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND ON FRIDAY.
/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 280419
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION POSITIONED NEAR BEND OREGON. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 04Z HAS BEEN CLOSE TO THE LOW
CENTER...OVER SE OREGON...THE OWYHEE MTNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. THESE AREAS WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER TRACKS TO THE SSW.
THINKING THIS SLIGHT WESTWARD PULL ON THE LOW WILL LESSEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS AND
MUCH OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND THUS HAVE LOWERED PRECIP
CHANCES IN THESE ZONES. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE OWYHEE MTNS SO THE ADVISORY THERE LOOKS
SOLID. IN SE OREGON WILL SEE SNOW DOWN TO ABOUT 4K FEET WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND OWYHEE COUNTY IDAHO. EXPECT MVFR/LOCAL IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...EAST-SOUTHEAST 5-15
KTS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS ACROSS EASTERN
OREGON AFTER 18Z ON SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT...EAST 10-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION ENDING
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR ON SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG UNTIL
ABOUT 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...WE CANCELLED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN
HARNEY COUNTY AROUND NOON PST AS SNOW DECREASED...ENDED...OR CHANGED
TO LIGHT RAIN.  SNOW ACCUMULATED AROUND 4 INCHES NEAR BURNS/OR.  A
SEPARATE ADVISORY FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF NEW SNOW COMING TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN U.S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  AS IT LEAVES...COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL COME INTO OUR CWA FROM THE NORTH.  THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES NEW SNOW TO EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY.  HEAVIEST SNOW IS
STILL SLATED FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS IN SWRN ID WHERE AN ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE MAIN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT.  THE TREASURE
VALLEY WILL HAVE LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...WITH NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  WET SNOW IN THE MAGIC VALLEY MAY
ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH BUT ROADS SHOULD STAY WET. INSTABILITY
STILL CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN OUR
SRN-MOST ZONES.  AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS SOUTH...NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY.  THESE WINDS MAY CREATE A CONVERGENCE
ZONE IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING THERE WHILE THE
REST OF THE SNAKE BASIN CLEARS.  CLEARING AND DRYING IN ALL AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET AT LEAST TEN DEGREES COLDER
SUNDAY MORNING THAN ON SATURDAY MORNING.  EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN NRN
VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY SHOULD
BE SUNNY AND COLD WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSPORT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO  MOUNTAINS...ENHANCED BY A CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN
TWO SURFACE HIGHS MOVING SOUTH.  PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE AIRMASS TO OUR EAST
WILL BE ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 280419
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION POSITIONED NEAR BEND OREGON. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 04Z HAS BEEN CLOSE TO THE LOW
CENTER...OVER SE OREGON...THE OWYHEE MTNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. THESE AREAS WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER TRACKS TO THE SSW.
THINKING THIS SLIGHT WESTWARD PULL ON THE LOW WILL LESSEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS AND
MUCH OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND THUS HAVE LOWERED PRECIP
CHANCES IN THESE ZONES. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE OWYHEE MTNS SO THE ADVISORY THERE LOOKS
SOLID. IN SE OREGON WILL SEE SNOW DOWN TO ABOUT 4K FEET WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND OWYHEE COUNTY IDAHO. EXPECT MVFR/LOCAL IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...EAST-SOUTHEAST 5-15
KTS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS ACROSS EASTERN
OREGON AFTER 18Z ON SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT...EAST 10-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION ENDING
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR ON SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG UNTIL
ABOUT 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...WE CANCELLED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN
HARNEY COUNTY AROUND NOON PST AS SNOW DECREASED...ENDED...OR CHANGED
TO LIGHT RAIN.  SNOW ACCUMULATED AROUND 4 INCHES NEAR BURNS/OR.  A
SEPARATE ADVISORY FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF NEW SNOW COMING TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN U.S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  AS IT LEAVES...COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL COME INTO OUR CWA FROM THE NORTH.  THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES NEW SNOW TO EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY.  HEAVIEST SNOW IS
STILL SLATED FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS IN SWRN ID WHERE AN ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE MAIN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT.  THE TREASURE
VALLEY WILL HAVE LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...WITH NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  WET SNOW IN THE MAGIC VALLEY MAY
ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH BUT ROADS SHOULD STAY WET. INSTABILITY
STILL CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN OUR
SRN-MOST ZONES.  AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS SOUTH...NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY.  THESE WINDS MAY CREATE A CONVERGENCE
ZONE IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING THERE WHILE THE
REST OF THE SNAKE BASIN CLEARS.  CLEARING AND DRYING IN ALL AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET AT LEAST TEN DEGREES COLDER
SUNDAY MORNING THAN ON SATURDAY MORNING.  EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN NRN
VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY SHOULD
BE SUNNY AND COLD WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSPORT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO  MOUNTAINS...ENHANCED BY A CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN
TWO SURFACE HIGHS MOVING SOUTH.  PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE AIRMASS TO OUR EAST
WILL BE ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 280419
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION POSITIONED NEAR BEND OREGON. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 04Z HAS BEEN CLOSE TO THE LOW
CENTER...OVER SE OREGON...THE OWYHEE MTNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. THESE AREAS WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER TRACKS TO THE SSW.
THINKING THIS SLIGHT WESTWARD PULL ON THE LOW WILL LESSEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS AND
MUCH OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND THUS HAVE LOWERED PRECIP
CHANCES IN THESE ZONES. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE OWYHEE MTNS SO THE ADVISORY THERE LOOKS
SOLID. IN SE OREGON WILL SEE SNOW DOWN TO ABOUT 4K FEET WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND OWYHEE COUNTY IDAHO. EXPECT MVFR/LOCAL IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...EAST-SOUTHEAST 5-15
KTS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS ACROSS EASTERN
OREGON AFTER 18Z ON SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT...EAST 10-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION ENDING
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR ON SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG UNTIL
ABOUT 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...WE CANCELLED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN
HARNEY COUNTY AROUND NOON PST AS SNOW DECREASED...ENDED...OR CHANGED
TO LIGHT RAIN.  SNOW ACCUMULATED AROUND 4 INCHES NEAR BURNS/OR.  A
SEPARATE ADVISORY FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF NEW SNOW COMING TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN U.S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  AS IT LEAVES...COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL COME INTO OUR CWA FROM THE NORTH.  THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES NEW SNOW TO EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY.  HEAVIEST SNOW IS
STILL SLATED FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS IN SWRN ID WHERE AN ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE MAIN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT.  THE TREASURE
VALLEY WILL HAVE LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...WITH NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  WET SNOW IN THE MAGIC VALLEY MAY
ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH BUT ROADS SHOULD STAY WET. INSTABILITY
STILL CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN OUR
SRN-MOST ZONES.  AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS SOUTH...NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY.  THESE WINDS MAY CREATE A CONVERGENCE
ZONE IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING THERE WHILE THE
REST OF THE SNAKE BASIN CLEARS.  CLEARING AND DRYING IN ALL AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET AT LEAST TEN DEGREES COLDER
SUNDAY MORNING THAN ON SATURDAY MORNING.  EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN NRN
VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY SHOULD
BE SUNNY AND COLD WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSPORT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO  MOUNTAINS...ENHANCED BY A CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN
TWO SURFACE HIGHS MOVING SOUTH.  PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE AIRMASS TO OUR EAST
WILL BE ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 280419
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION POSITIONED NEAR BEND OREGON. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 04Z HAS BEEN CLOSE TO THE LOW
CENTER...OVER SE OREGON...THE OWYHEE MTNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. THESE AREAS WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER TRACKS TO THE SSW.
THINKING THIS SLIGHT WESTWARD PULL ON THE LOW WILL LESSEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS AND
MUCH OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND THUS HAVE LOWERED PRECIP
CHANCES IN THESE ZONES. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE OWYHEE MTNS SO THE ADVISORY THERE LOOKS
SOLID. IN SE OREGON WILL SEE SNOW DOWN TO ABOUT 4K FEET WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND OWYHEE COUNTY IDAHO. EXPECT MVFR/LOCAL IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...EAST-SOUTHEAST 5-15
KTS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS ACROSS EASTERN
OREGON AFTER 18Z ON SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT...EAST 10-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION ENDING
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR ON SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG UNTIL
ABOUT 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...WE CANCELLED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN
HARNEY COUNTY AROUND NOON PST AS SNOW DECREASED...ENDED...OR CHANGED
TO LIGHT RAIN.  SNOW ACCUMULATED AROUND 4 INCHES NEAR BURNS/OR.  A
SEPARATE ADVISORY FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF NEW SNOW COMING TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN U.S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  AS IT LEAVES...COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL COME INTO OUR CWA FROM THE NORTH.  THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES NEW SNOW TO EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY.  HEAVIEST SNOW IS
STILL SLATED FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS IN SWRN ID WHERE AN ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE MAIN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT.  THE TREASURE
VALLEY WILL HAVE LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...WITH NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  WET SNOW IN THE MAGIC VALLEY MAY
ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH BUT ROADS SHOULD STAY WET. INSTABILITY
STILL CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN OUR
SRN-MOST ZONES.  AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS SOUTH...NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY.  THESE WINDS MAY CREATE A CONVERGENCE
ZONE IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING THERE WHILE THE
REST OF THE SNAKE BASIN CLEARS.  CLEARING AND DRYING IN ALL AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET AT LEAST TEN DEGREES COLDER
SUNDAY MORNING THAN ON SATURDAY MORNING.  EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN NRN
VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY SHOULD
BE SUNNY AND COLD WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSPORT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO  MOUNTAINS...ENHANCED BY A CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN
TWO SURFACE HIGHS MOVING SOUTH.  PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE AIRMASS TO OUR EAST
WILL BE ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 280419
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION POSITIONED NEAR BEND OREGON. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 04Z HAS BEEN CLOSE TO THE LOW
CENTER...OVER SE OREGON...THE OWYHEE MTNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. THESE AREAS WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER TRACKS TO THE SSW.
THINKING THIS SLIGHT WESTWARD PULL ON THE LOW WILL LESSEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS AND
MUCH OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND THUS HAVE LOWERED PRECIP
CHANCES IN THESE ZONES. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE OWYHEE MTNS SO THE ADVISORY THERE LOOKS
SOLID. IN SE OREGON WILL SEE SNOW DOWN TO ABOUT 4K FEET WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND OWYHEE COUNTY IDAHO. EXPECT MVFR/LOCAL IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...EAST-SOUTHEAST 5-15
KTS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS ACROSS EASTERN
OREGON AFTER 18Z ON SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT...EAST 10-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION ENDING
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR ON SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG UNTIL
ABOUT 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...WE CANCELLED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN
HARNEY COUNTY AROUND NOON PST AS SNOW DECREASED...ENDED...OR CHANGED
TO LIGHT RAIN.  SNOW ACCUMULATED AROUND 4 INCHES NEAR BURNS/OR.  A
SEPARATE ADVISORY FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF NEW SNOW COMING TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN U.S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  AS IT LEAVES...COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL COME INTO OUR CWA FROM THE NORTH.  THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES NEW SNOW TO EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY.  HEAVIEST SNOW IS
STILL SLATED FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS IN SWRN ID WHERE AN ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE MAIN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT.  THE TREASURE
VALLEY WILL HAVE LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...WITH NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  WET SNOW IN THE MAGIC VALLEY MAY
ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH BUT ROADS SHOULD STAY WET. INSTABILITY
STILL CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN OUR
SRN-MOST ZONES.  AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS SOUTH...NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY.  THESE WINDS MAY CREATE A CONVERGENCE
ZONE IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING THERE WHILE THE
REST OF THE SNAKE BASIN CLEARS.  CLEARING AND DRYING IN ALL AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET AT LEAST TEN DEGREES COLDER
SUNDAY MORNING THAN ON SATURDAY MORNING.  EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN NRN
VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY SHOULD
BE SUNNY AND COLD WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSPORT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO  MOUNTAINS...ENHANCED BY A CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN
TWO SURFACE HIGHS MOVING SOUTH.  PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE AIRMASS TO OUR EAST
WILL BE ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 280419
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION POSITIONED NEAR BEND OREGON. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 04Z HAS BEEN CLOSE TO THE LOW
CENTER...OVER SE OREGON...THE OWYHEE MTNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. THESE AREAS WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER TRACKS TO THE SSW.
THINKING THIS SLIGHT WESTWARD PULL ON THE LOW WILL LESSEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS AND
MUCH OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND THUS HAVE LOWERED PRECIP
CHANCES IN THESE ZONES. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE OWYHEE MTNS SO THE ADVISORY THERE LOOKS
SOLID. IN SE OREGON WILL SEE SNOW DOWN TO ABOUT 4K FEET WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND OWYHEE COUNTY IDAHO. EXPECT MVFR/LOCAL IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...EAST-SOUTHEAST 5-15
KTS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS ACROSS EASTERN
OREGON AFTER 18Z ON SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT...EAST 10-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION ENDING
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR ON SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG UNTIL
ABOUT 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...WE CANCELLED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN
HARNEY COUNTY AROUND NOON PST AS SNOW DECREASED...ENDED...OR CHANGED
TO LIGHT RAIN.  SNOW ACCUMULATED AROUND 4 INCHES NEAR BURNS/OR.  A
SEPARATE ADVISORY FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF NEW SNOW COMING TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN U.S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  AS IT LEAVES...COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL COME INTO OUR CWA FROM THE NORTH.  THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES NEW SNOW TO EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY.  HEAVIEST SNOW IS
STILL SLATED FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS IN SWRN ID WHERE AN ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE MAIN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT.  THE TREASURE
VALLEY WILL HAVE LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...WITH NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  WET SNOW IN THE MAGIC VALLEY MAY
ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH BUT ROADS SHOULD STAY WET. INSTABILITY
STILL CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN OUR
SRN-MOST ZONES.  AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS SOUTH...NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY.  THESE WINDS MAY CREATE A CONVERGENCE
ZONE IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING THERE WHILE THE
REST OF THE SNAKE BASIN CLEARS.  CLEARING AND DRYING IN ALL AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET AT LEAST TEN DEGREES COLDER
SUNDAY MORNING THAN ON SATURDAY MORNING.  EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN NRN
VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY SHOULD
BE SUNNY AND COLD WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSPORT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO  MOUNTAINS...ENHANCED BY A CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN
TWO SURFACE HIGHS MOVING SOUTH.  PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE AIRMASS TO OUR EAST
WILL BE ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 280419
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION POSITIONED NEAR BEND OREGON. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 04Z HAS BEEN CLOSE TO THE LOW
CENTER...OVER SE OREGON...THE OWYHEE MTNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. THESE AREAS WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER TRACKS TO THE SSW.
THINKING THIS SLIGHT WESTWARD PULL ON THE LOW WILL LESSEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS AND
MUCH OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND THUS HAVE LOWERED PRECIP
CHANCES IN THESE ZONES. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE OWYHEE MTNS SO THE ADVISORY THERE LOOKS
SOLID. IN SE OREGON WILL SEE SNOW DOWN TO ABOUT 4K FEET WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND OWYHEE COUNTY IDAHO. EXPECT MVFR/LOCAL IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...EAST-SOUTHEAST 5-15
KTS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS ACROSS EASTERN
OREGON AFTER 18Z ON SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT...EAST 10-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION ENDING
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR ON SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG UNTIL
ABOUT 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...WE CANCELLED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN
HARNEY COUNTY AROUND NOON PST AS SNOW DECREASED...ENDED...OR CHANGED
TO LIGHT RAIN.  SNOW ACCUMULATED AROUND 4 INCHES NEAR BURNS/OR.  A
SEPARATE ADVISORY FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF NEW SNOW COMING TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN U.S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  AS IT LEAVES...COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL COME INTO OUR CWA FROM THE NORTH.  THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES NEW SNOW TO EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY.  HEAVIEST SNOW IS
STILL SLATED FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS IN SWRN ID WHERE AN ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE MAIN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT.  THE TREASURE
VALLEY WILL HAVE LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...WITH NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  WET SNOW IN THE MAGIC VALLEY MAY
ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH BUT ROADS SHOULD STAY WET. INSTABILITY
STILL CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN OUR
SRN-MOST ZONES.  AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS SOUTH...NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY.  THESE WINDS MAY CREATE A CONVERGENCE
ZONE IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING THERE WHILE THE
REST OF THE SNAKE BASIN CLEARS.  CLEARING AND DRYING IN ALL AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET AT LEAST TEN DEGREES COLDER
SUNDAY MORNING THAN ON SATURDAY MORNING.  EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN NRN
VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY SHOULD
BE SUNNY AND COLD WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSPORT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO  MOUNTAINS...ENHANCED BY A CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN
TWO SURFACE HIGHS MOVING SOUTH.  PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE AIRMASS TO OUR EAST
WILL BE ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 280419
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION POSITIONED NEAR BEND OREGON. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 04Z HAS BEEN CLOSE TO THE LOW
CENTER...OVER SE OREGON...THE OWYHEE MTNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. THESE AREAS WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER TRACKS TO THE SSW.
THINKING THIS SLIGHT WESTWARD PULL ON THE LOW WILL LESSEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS AND
MUCH OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND THUS HAVE LOWERED PRECIP
CHANCES IN THESE ZONES. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE OWYHEE MTNS SO THE ADVISORY THERE LOOKS
SOLID. IN SE OREGON WILL SEE SNOW DOWN TO ABOUT 4K FEET WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND OWYHEE COUNTY IDAHO. EXPECT MVFR/LOCAL IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...EAST-SOUTHEAST 5-15
KTS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS ACROSS EASTERN
OREGON AFTER 18Z ON SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT...EAST 10-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION ENDING
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR ON SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG UNTIL
ABOUT 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...WE CANCELLED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN
HARNEY COUNTY AROUND NOON PST AS SNOW DECREASED...ENDED...OR CHANGED
TO LIGHT RAIN.  SNOW ACCUMULATED AROUND 4 INCHES NEAR BURNS/OR.  A
SEPARATE ADVISORY FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF NEW SNOW COMING TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN U.S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  AS IT LEAVES...COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL COME INTO OUR CWA FROM THE NORTH.  THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES NEW SNOW TO EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY.  HEAVIEST SNOW IS
STILL SLATED FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS IN SWRN ID WHERE AN ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE MAIN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT.  THE TREASURE
VALLEY WILL HAVE LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...WITH NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  WET SNOW IN THE MAGIC VALLEY MAY
ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH BUT ROADS SHOULD STAY WET. INSTABILITY
STILL CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN OUR
SRN-MOST ZONES.  AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS SOUTH...NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY.  THESE WINDS MAY CREATE A CONVERGENCE
ZONE IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING THERE WHILE THE
REST OF THE SNAKE BASIN CLEARS.  CLEARING AND DRYING IN ALL AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET AT LEAST TEN DEGREES COLDER
SUNDAY MORNING THAN ON SATURDAY MORNING.  EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN NRN
VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY SHOULD
BE SUNNY AND COLD WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSPORT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO  MOUNTAINS...ENHANCED BY A CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN
TWO SURFACE HIGHS MOVING SOUTH.  PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE AIRMASS TO OUR EAST
WILL BE ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH



000
FXUS66 KPDT 280315
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
715 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN OREGON
THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES MAINLY OVER OREGON AND THE
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA ON SATURDAY. RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH WITH THE LOW...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA
BY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER DROP TO ZERO TO 10 DEGREES. SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 335 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN
REDEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATER TONIGHT. A DEFORMATION PRECIP
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST
OREGON NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THIS BAND WILL BECOME
ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER NEVADA. WITH THE PRECIP BAND OVER
EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON OVERNIGHT AND LOW TEMPS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING, EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
WILL SEE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS OUR
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON ZONES AS THE PRECIP BAND ADJUSTS IT`S
POSITION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS THE PRECIP OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OREGON WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY MORNING, AND LARGELY BE DONE BY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THESE WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE SIMCOE
HIGHLANDS. THESE WINDS MAY APPROACH SUSTAINED 30 MPH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORIES AS WOULD
LIKE TO SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE
FAIR, DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE
CASCADE CREST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM
THE NORTH ON MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA ON TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD AND
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ANY LOCAL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE CASCADES. COBB

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAIN AT KDLS THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z CAUSING MVFR CEILINGS. KALW AND KPSC WILL REMAIN DRY...AND
SHOWERS ARE NOT LIKELY TO RETURN TO KYKM AND KPDT. RAIN WILL RETURN
TO KRDM AND KBDN THIS EVENING...AND CHANGE TO SNOW OVER NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL FOLLOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT MOST LOCATIONS 10-20
KTS. 82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  27  42  20  44 /  50  10   0   0
ALW  30  43  24  44 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  32  50  19  49 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  34  49  22  48 /  30   0   0   0
HRI  30  48  18  48 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  31  48  20  49 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  25  37   8  46 /  80  30   0   0
LGD  30  41  15  42 /  70  20   0   0
GCD  25  37  10  43 /  80  60   0   0
DLS  34  52  24  49 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94





000
FXUS66 KPDT 280315
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
715 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN OREGON
THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES MAINLY OVER OREGON AND THE
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA ON SATURDAY. RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH WITH THE LOW...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA
BY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER DROP TO ZERO TO 10 DEGREES. SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 335 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN
REDEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATER TONIGHT. A DEFORMATION PRECIP
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST
OREGON NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THIS BAND WILL BECOME
ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER NEVADA. WITH THE PRECIP BAND OVER
EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON OVERNIGHT AND LOW TEMPS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING, EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
WILL SEE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS OUR
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON ZONES AS THE PRECIP BAND ADJUSTS IT`S
POSITION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS THE PRECIP OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OREGON WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY MORNING, AND LARGELY BE DONE BY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THESE WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE SIMCOE
HIGHLANDS. THESE WINDS MAY APPROACH SUSTAINED 30 MPH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORIES AS WOULD
LIKE TO SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE
FAIR, DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE
CASCADE CREST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM
THE NORTH ON MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA ON TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD AND
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ANY LOCAL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE CASCADES. COBB

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAIN AT KDLS THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z CAUSING MVFR CEILINGS. KALW AND KPSC WILL REMAIN DRY...AND
SHOWERS ARE NOT LIKELY TO RETURN TO KYKM AND KPDT. RAIN WILL RETURN
TO KRDM AND KBDN THIS EVENING...AND CHANGE TO SNOW OVER NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL FOLLOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT MOST LOCATIONS 10-20
KTS. 82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  27  42  20  44 /  50  10   0   0
ALW  30  43  24  44 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  32  50  19  49 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  34  49  22  48 /  30   0   0   0
HRI  30  48  18  48 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  31  48  20  49 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  25  37   8  46 /  80  30   0   0
LGD  30  41  15  42 /  70  20   0   0
GCD  25  37  10  43 /  80  60   0   0
DLS  34  52  24  49 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94






000
FXUS66 KMFR 280038
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
438 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...I ADDED THE LATEST MARINE AND AVIATION FORECASTS BELOW.

&&

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES, AND EVEN A STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN
SPOTTY AT BEST, BUT AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR ROADS
DESPITE ONGOING SNOWFALL, LIKELY A RESULT OF WARMER GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME INSOLATION. HOWEVER, ONCE TEMPERATURES
COOL LATER THIS EVENING, MUCH OF THAT SNOWMELT COULD REFREEZE, AND
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL, ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE
SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN ORDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HAZARDS RESULTING FOR THESE CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE COLD AIR AND
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AT THAT TIME, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION, AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST. WHILE THIS MEANS
LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, IT DOES MEAN THAT THE SOUTHWEST
OREGON COAST WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A HEALTHY CHETCO
EFFECT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND CLEARING
SKIES, SUSPECT THAT FOG MAY BE A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN, DRY OFFSHORE FLOW COULD LIMIT
FORMATION. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL OVERNIGHT
COOLING, WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO BE COLDER THAN THOSE
SEEN LATELY, ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY NEED TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH,
ARRIVING BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR, BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 3000 TO
4000 FEET, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE DYNAMICS OR THE MOISTURE OF
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS, EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
BEGIN MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. -BPN

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OFFSHORE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.  MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE REGION.  AT
THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING SOME OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE MOUNTAINS.

LATER IN THE WEEK, ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST ON FRIDAY BUT VARIABILITY REMAINS ON THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WHETHER THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE
COAST OR REMAIN OFFSHORE. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND ON FRIDAY.
/CC

AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUE, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIG AND AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO
AROUND 4000 FT MSL. AS SHOWERS DIMINISH, MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED IFR
CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN, INCLUDING KRBG, WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE AND PARTIAL
CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY. SK

MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST, FRIDAY, 27 FEB, 2015...LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STRONG WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
SOME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS...MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO...WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BPN/CC/NSK



000
FXUS66 KMFR 280038
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
438 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...I ADDED THE LATEST MARINE AND AVIATION FORECASTS BELOW.

&&

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES, AND EVEN A STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN
SPOTTY AT BEST, BUT AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR ROADS
DESPITE ONGOING SNOWFALL, LIKELY A RESULT OF WARMER GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME INSOLATION. HOWEVER, ONCE TEMPERATURES
COOL LATER THIS EVENING, MUCH OF THAT SNOWMELT COULD REFREEZE, AND
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL, ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE
SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN ORDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HAZARDS RESULTING FOR THESE CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE COLD AIR AND
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AT THAT TIME, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION, AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST. WHILE THIS MEANS
LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, IT DOES MEAN THAT THE SOUTHWEST
OREGON COAST WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A HEALTHY CHETCO
EFFECT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND CLEARING
SKIES, SUSPECT THAT FOG MAY BE A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN, DRY OFFSHORE FLOW COULD LIMIT
FORMATION. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL OVERNIGHT
COOLING, WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO BE COLDER THAN THOSE
SEEN LATELY, ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY NEED TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH,
ARRIVING BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR, BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 3000 TO
4000 FEET, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE DYNAMICS OR THE MOISTURE OF
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS, EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
BEGIN MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. -BPN

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OFFSHORE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.  MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE REGION.  AT
THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING SOME OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE MOUNTAINS.

LATER IN THE WEEK, ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST ON FRIDAY BUT VARIABILITY REMAINS ON THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WHETHER THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE
COAST OR REMAIN OFFSHORE. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND ON FRIDAY.
/CC

AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUE, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIG AND AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO
AROUND 4000 FT MSL. AS SHOWERS DIMINISH, MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED IFR
CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN, INCLUDING KRBG, WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE AND PARTIAL
CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY. SK

MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST, FRIDAY, 27 FEB, 2015...LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STRONG WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
SOME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS...MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO...WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BPN/CC/NSK



000
FXUS66 KMFR 280038
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
438 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...I ADDED THE LATEST MARINE AND AVIATION FORECASTS BELOW.

&&

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES, AND EVEN A STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN
SPOTTY AT BEST, BUT AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR ROADS
DESPITE ONGOING SNOWFALL, LIKELY A RESULT OF WARMER GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME INSOLATION. HOWEVER, ONCE TEMPERATURES
COOL LATER THIS EVENING, MUCH OF THAT SNOWMELT COULD REFREEZE, AND
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL, ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE
SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN ORDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HAZARDS RESULTING FOR THESE CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE COLD AIR AND
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AT THAT TIME, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION, AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST. WHILE THIS MEANS
LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, IT DOES MEAN THAT THE SOUTHWEST
OREGON COAST WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A HEALTHY CHETCO
EFFECT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND CLEARING
SKIES, SUSPECT THAT FOG MAY BE A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN, DRY OFFSHORE FLOW COULD LIMIT
FORMATION. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL OVERNIGHT
COOLING, WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO BE COLDER THAN THOSE
SEEN LATELY, ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY NEED TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH,
ARRIVING BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR, BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 3000 TO
4000 FEET, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE DYNAMICS OR THE MOISTURE OF
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS, EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
BEGIN MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. -BPN

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OFFSHORE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.  MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE REGION.  AT
THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING SOME OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE MOUNTAINS.

LATER IN THE WEEK, ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST ON FRIDAY BUT VARIABILITY REMAINS ON THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WHETHER THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE
COAST OR REMAIN OFFSHORE. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND ON FRIDAY.
/CC

AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUE, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIG AND AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO
AROUND 4000 FT MSL. AS SHOWERS DIMINISH, MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED IFR
CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN, INCLUDING KRBG, WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE AND PARTIAL
CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY. SK

MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST, FRIDAY, 27 FEB, 2015...LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STRONG WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
SOME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS...MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO...WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BPN/CC/NSK



000
FXUS66 KMFR 280038
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
438 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...I ADDED THE LATEST MARINE AND AVIATION FORECASTS BELOW.

&&

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES, AND EVEN A STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN
SPOTTY AT BEST, BUT AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR ROADS
DESPITE ONGOING SNOWFALL, LIKELY A RESULT OF WARMER GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME INSOLATION. HOWEVER, ONCE TEMPERATURES
COOL LATER THIS EVENING, MUCH OF THAT SNOWMELT COULD REFREEZE, AND
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL, ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE
SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN ORDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HAZARDS RESULTING FOR THESE CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE COLD AIR AND
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AT THAT TIME, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION, AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST. WHILE THIS MEANS
LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, IT DOES MEAN THAT THE SOUTHWEST
OREGON COAST WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A HEALTHY CHETCO
EFFECT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND CLEARING
SKIES, SUSPECT THAT FOG MAY BE A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN, DRY OFFSHORE FLOW COULD LIMIT
FORMATION. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL OVERNIGHT
COOLING, WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO BE COLDER THAN THOSE
SEEN LATELY, ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY NEED TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH,
ARRIVING BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR, BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 3000 TO
4000 FEET, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE DYNAMICS OR THE MOISTURE OF
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS, EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
BEGIN MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. -BPN

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OFFSHORE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.  MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE REGION.  AT
THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING SOME OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE MOUNTAINS.

LATER IN THE WEEK, ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST ON FRIDAY BUT VARIABILITY REMAINS ON THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WHETHER THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE
COAST OR REMAIN OFFSHORE. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND ON FRIDAY.
/CC

AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUE, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIG AND AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO
AROUND 4000 FT MSL. AS SHOWERS DIMINISH, MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED IFR
CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN, INCLUDING KRBG, WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE AND PARTIAL
CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY. SK

MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST, FRIDAY, 27 FEB, 2015...LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STRONG WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
SOME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS...MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO...WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BPN/CC/NSK



000
FXUS66 KMFR 280038
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
438 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...I ADDED THE LATEST MARINE AND AVIATION FORECASTS BELOW.

&&

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES, AND EVEN A STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN
SPOTTY AT BEST, BUT AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR ROADS
DESPITE ONGOING SNOWFALL, LIKELY A RESULT OF WARMER GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME INSOLATION. HOWEVER, ONCE TEMPERATURES
COOL LATER THIS EVENING, MUCH OF THAT SNOWMELT COULD REFREEZE, AND
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL, ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE
SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN ORDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HAZARDS RESULTING FOR THESE CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE COLD AIR AND
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AT THAT TIME, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION, AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST. WHILE THIS MEANS
LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, IT DOES MEAN THAT THE SOUTHWEST
OREGON COAST WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A HEALTHY CHETCO
EFFECT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND CLEARING
SKIES, SUSPECT THAT FOG MAY BE A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN, DRY OFFSHORE FLOW COULD LIMIT
FORMATION. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL OVERNIGHT
COOLING, WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO BE COLDER THAN THOSE
SEEN LATELY, ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY NEED TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH,
ARRIVING BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR, BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 3000 TO
4000 FEET, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE DYNAMICS OR THE MOISTURE OF
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS, EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
BEGIN MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. -BPN

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OFFSHORE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.  MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE REGION.  AT
THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING SOME OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE MOUNTAINS.

LATER IN THE WEEK, ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST ON FRIDAY BUT VARIABILITY REMAINS ON THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WHETHER THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE
COAST OR REMAIN OFFSHORE. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND ON FRIDAY.
/CC

AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUE, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIG AND AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO
AROUND 4000 FT MSL. AS SHOWERS DIMINISH, MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED IFR
CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN, INCLUDING KRBG, WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE AND PARTIAL
CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY. SK

MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST, FRIDAY, 27 FEB, 2015...LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STRONG WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
SOME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS...MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO...WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BPN/CC/NSK



000
FXUS66 KMFR 280038
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
438 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...I ADDED THE LATEST MARINE AND AVIATION FORECASTS BELOW.

&&

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES, AND EVEN A STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN
SPOTTY AT BEST, BUT AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR ROADS
DESPITE ONGOING SNOWFALL, LIKELY A RESULT OF WARMER GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME INSOLATION. HOWEVER, ONCE TEMPERATURES
COOL LATER THIS EVENING, MUCH OF THAT SNOWMELT COULD REFREEZE, AND
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL, ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE
SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN ORDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HAZARDS RESULTING FOR THESE CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE COLD AIR AND
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AT THAT TIME, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION, AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST. WHILE THIS MEANS
LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, IT DOES MEAN THAT THE SOUTHWEST
OREGON COAST WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A HEALTHY CHETCO
EFFECT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND CLEARING
SKIES, SUSPECT THAT FOG MAY BE A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN, DRY OFFSHORE FLOW COULD LIMIT
FORMATION. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL OVERNIGHT
COOLING, WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO BE COLDER THAN THOSE
SEEN LATELY, ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY NEED TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH,
ARRIVING BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR, BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 3000 TO
4000 FEET, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE DYNAMICS OR THE MOISTURE OF
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS, EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
BEGIN MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. -BPN

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OFFSHORE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.  MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE REGION.  AT
THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING SOME OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE MOUNTAINS.

LATER IN THE WEEK, ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST ON FRIDAY BUT VARIABILITY REMAINS ON THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WHETHER THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE
COAST OR REMAIN OFFSHORE. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND ON FRIDAY.
/CC

AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUE, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIG AND AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO
AROUND 4000 FT MSL. AS SHOWERS DIMINISH, MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED IFR
CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN, INCLUDING KRBG, WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE AND PARTIAL
CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY. SK

MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST, FRIDAY, 27 FEB, 2015...LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STRONG WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
SOME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS...MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO...WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BPN/CC/NSK



000
FXUS66 KMFR 280038
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
438 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...I ADDED THE LATEST MARINE AND AVIATION FORECASTS BELOW.

&&

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES, AND EVEN A STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN
SPOTTY AT BEST, BUT AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR ROADS
DESPITE ONGOING SNOWFALL, LIKELY A RESULT OF WARMER GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME INSOLATION. HOWEVER, ONCE TEMPERATURES
COOL LATER THIS EVENING, MUCH OF THAT SNOWMELT COULD REFREEZE, AND
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL, ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE
SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN ORDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HAZARDS RESULTING FOR THESE CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE COLD AIR AND
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AT THAT TIME, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION, AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST. WHILE THIS MEANS
LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, IT DOES MEAN THAT THE SOUTHWEST
OREGON COAST WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A HEALTHY CHETCO
EFFECT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND CLEARING
SKIES, SUSPECT THAT FOG MAY BE A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN, DRY OFFSHORE FLOW COULD LIMIT
FORMATION. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL OVERNIGHT
COOLING, WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO BE COLDER THAN THOSE
SEEN LATELY, ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY NEED TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH,
ARRIVING BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR, BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 3000 TO
4000 FEET, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE DYNAMICS OR THE MOISTURE OF
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS, EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
BEGIN MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. -BPN

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OFFSHORE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.  MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE REGION.  AT
THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING SOME OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE MOUNTAINS.

LATER IN THE WEEK, ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST ON FRIDAY BUT VARIABILITY REMAINS ON THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WHETHER THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE
COAST OR REMAIN OFFSHORE. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND ON FRIDAY.
/CC

AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUE, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIG AND AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO
AROUND 4000 FT MSL. AS SHOWERS DIMINISH, MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED IFR
CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN, INCLUDING KRBG, WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE AND PARTIAL
CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY. SK

MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST, FRIDAY, 27 FEB, 2015...LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STRONG WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
SOME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS...MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO...WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BPN/CC/NSK



000
FXUS66 KMFR 280038
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
438 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...I ADDED THE LATEST MARINE AND AVIATION FORECASTS BELOW.

&&

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES, AND EVEN A STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN
SPOTTY AT BEST, BUT AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR ROADS
DESPITE ONGOING SNOWFALL, LIKELY A RESULT OF WARMER GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME INSOLATION. HOWEVER, ONCE TEMPERATURES
COOL LATER THIS EVENING, MUCH OF THAT SNOWMELT COULD REFREEZE, AND
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL, ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE
SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN ORDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HAZARDS RESULTING FOR THESE CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE COLD AIR AND
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AT THAT TIME, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION, AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST. WHILE THIS MEANS
LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, IT DOES MEAN THAT THE SOUTHWEST
OREGON COAST WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A HEALTHY CHETCO
EFFECT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND CLEARING
SKIES, SUSPECT THAT FOG MAY BE A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN, DRY OFFSHORE FLOW COULD LIMIT
FORMATION. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL OVERNIGHT
COOLING, WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO BE COLDER THAN THOSE
SEEN LATELY, ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY NEED TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH,
ARRIVING BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR, BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 3000 TO
4000 FEET, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE DYNAMICS OR THE MOISTURE OF
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS, EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
BEGIN MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. -BPN

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OFFSHORE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.  MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE REGION.  AT
THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING SOME OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE MOUNTAINS.

LATER IN THE WEEK, ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST ON FRIDAY BUT VARIABILITY REMAINS ON THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WHETHER THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE
COAST OR REMAIN OFFSHORE. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND ON FRIDAY.
/CC

AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUE, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIG AND AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO
AROUND 4000 FT MSL. AS SHOWERS DIMINISH, MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED IFR
CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN, INCLUDING KRBG, WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE AND PARTIAL
CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY. SK

MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST, FRIDAY, 27 FEB, 2015...LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STRONG WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
SOME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS...MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO...WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BPN/CC/NSK



000
FXUS66 KPDT 272335 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
335 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN
REDEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATER TONIGHT. A DEFORMATION PRECIP
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST
OREGON NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THIS BAND WILL BECOME
ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER NEVADA. WITH THE PRECIP BAND OVER
EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON OVERNIGHT AND LOW TEMPS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING, EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
WILL SEE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS OUR
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON ZONES AS THE PRECIP BAND ADJUSTS IT`S
POSITION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS THE PRECIP OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OREGON WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY MORNING, AND LARGELY BE DONE BY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THESE WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE SIMCOE
HIGHLANDS. THESE WINDS MAY APPROACH SUSTAINED 30 MPH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORIES AS WOULD
LIKE TO SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE
FAIR, DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE
CASCADE CREST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 90

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM
THE NORTH ON MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA ON TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD AND
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ANY LOCAL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE CASCADES. COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAIN AT KDLS THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z CAUSING MVFR CEILINGS. KALW AND KPSC WILL REMAIN DRY...AND
SHOWERS ARE NOT LIKELY TO RETURN TO KYKM AND KPDT. RAIN WILL RETURN
TO KRDM AND KBDN THIS EVENING...AND CHANGE TO SNOW OVER NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL FOLLOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT MOST LOCATIONS 10-20
KTS. 82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  27  42  20  44 /  60  10   0   0
ALW  30  43  24  44 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  32  50  19  49 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  34  49  22  48 /  30   0   0   0
HRI  30  48  18  48 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  31  48  20  49 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  25  37   8  46 /  80  30   0   0
LGD  30  41  15  42 /  50  20   0   0
GCD  25  37  10  43 /  80  60   0   0
DLS  34  52  24  49 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82







000
FXUS66 KPDT 272335 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
335 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN
REDEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATER TONIGHT. A DEFORMATION PRECIP
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST
OREGON NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THIS BAND WILL BECOME
ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER NEVADA. WITH THE PRECIP BAND OVER
EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON OVERNIGHT AND LOW TEMPS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING, EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
WILL SEE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS OUR
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON ZONES AS THE PRECIP BAND ADJUSTS IT`S
POSITION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS THE PRECIP OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OREGON WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY MORNING, AND LARGELY BE DONE BY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THESE WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE SIMCOE
HIGHLANDS. THESE WINDS MAY APPROACH SUSTAINED 30 MPH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORIES AS WOULD
LIKE TO SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE
FAIR, DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE
CASCADE CREST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 90

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM
THE NORTH ON MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA ON TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD AND
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ANY LOCAL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE CASCADES. COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAIN AT KDLS THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z CAUSING MVFR CEILINGS. KALW AND KPSC WILL REMAIN DRY...AND
SHOWERS ARE NOT LIKELY TO RETURN TO KYKM AND KPDT. RAIN WILL RETURN
TO KRDM AND KBDN THIS EVENING...AND CHANGE TO SNOW OVER NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL FOLLOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT MOST LOCATIONS 10-20
KTS. 82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  27  42  20  44 /  60  10   0   0
ALW  30  43  24  44 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  32  50  19  49 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  34  49  22  48 /  30   0   0   0
HRI  30  48  18  48 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  31  48  20  49 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  25  37   8  46 /  80  30   0   0
LGD  30  41  15  42 /  50  20   0   0
GCD  25  37  10  43 /  80  60   0   0
DLS  34  52  24  49 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82






000
FXUS66 KPDT 272335 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
335 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN
REDEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATER TONIGHT. A DEFORMATION PRECIP
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST
OREGON NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THIS BAND WILL BECOME
ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER NEVADA. WITH THE PRECIP BAND OVER
EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON OVERNIGHT AND LOW TEMPS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING, EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
WILL SEE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS OUR
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON ZONES AS THE PRECIP BAND ADJUSTS IT`S
POSITION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS THE PRECIP OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OREGON WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY MORNING, AND LARGELY BE DONE BY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THESE WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE SIMCOE
HIGHLANDS. THESE WINDS MAY APPROACH SUSTAINED 30 MPH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORIES AS WOULD
LIKE TO SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE
FAIR, DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE
CASCADE CREST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 90

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM
THE NORTH ON MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA ON TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD AND
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ANY LOCAL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE CASCADES. COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAIN AT KDLS THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z CAUSING MVFR CEILINGS. KALW AND KPSC WILL REMAIN DRY...AND
SHOWERS ARE NOT LIKELY TO RETURN TO KYKM AND KPDT. RAIN WILL RETURN
TO KRDM AND KBDN THIS EVENING...AND CHANGE TO SNOW OVER NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL FOLLOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT MOST LOCATIONS 10-20
KTS. 82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  27  42  20  44 /  60  10   0   0
ALW  30  43  24  44 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  32  50  19  49 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  34  49  22  48 /  30   0   0   0
HRI  30  48  18  48 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  31  48  20  49 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  25  37   8  46 /  80  30   0   0
LGD  30  41  15  42 /  50  20   0   0
GCD  25  37  10  43 /  80  60   0   0
DLS  34  52  24  49 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82






000
FXUS66 KPDT 272231
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
231 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN
REDEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATER TONIGHT. A DEFORMATION PRECIP
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST
OREGON NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THIS BAND WILL BECOME
ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER NEVADA. WITH THE PRECIP BAND OVER
EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON OVERNIGHT AND LOW TEMPS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING, EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
WILL SEE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS OUR
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON ZONES AS THE PRECIP BAND ADJUSTS IT`S
POSITION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS THE PRECIP OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OREGON WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY MORNING, AND LARGELY BE DONE BY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THESE WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE SIMCOE
HIGHLANDS. THESE WINDS MAY APPROACH SUSTAINED 30 MPH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORIES AS WOULD
LIKE TO SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE
FAIR, DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE
CASCADE CREST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 90

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM
THE NORTH ON MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA ON TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD AND
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ANY LOCAL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE CASCADES. COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD
KYKM AND KDLS CAUSING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. THE RAIN MAY SPREAD FAR
ENOUGH EAST LATER THIS MORNING TO REACH KPDT...BUT KALW AND KPSC
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO KRDM AND KBDN AROUND
00Z...AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATER IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AT MOST LOCATIONS AND INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS. 82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  27  42  20  44 /  60  10   0   0
ALW  30  43  24  44 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  32  50  19  49 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  34  49  22  48 /  30   0   0   0
HRI  30  48  18  48 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  31  48  20  49 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  25  37   8  46 /  80  30   0   0
LGD  30  41  15  42 /  50  20   0   0
GCD  25  37  10  43 /  80  60   0   0
DLS  34  52  24  49 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82








000
FXUS66 KPDT 272231
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
231 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN
REDEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATER TONIGHT. A DEFORMATION PRECIP
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST
OREGON NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THIS BAND WILL BECOME
ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER NEVADA. WITH THE PRECIP BAND OVER
EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON OVERNIGHT AND LOW TEMPS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING, EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
WILL SEE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS OUR
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON ZONES AS THE PRECIP BAND ADJUSTS IT`S
POSITION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS THE PRECIP OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OREGON WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY MORNING, AND LARGELY BE DONE BY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THESE WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE SIMCOE
HIGHLANDS. THESE WINDS MAY APPROACH SUSTAINED 30 MPH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORIES AS WOULD
LIKE TO SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE
FAIR, DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE
CASCADE CREST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 90

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM
THE NORTH ON MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA ON TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD AND
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ANY LOCAL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE CASCADES. COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD
KYKM AND KDLS CAUSING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. THE RAIN MAY SPREAD FAR
ENOUGH EAST LATER THIS MORNING TO REACH KPDT...BUT KALW AND KPSC
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO KRDM AND KBDN AROUND
00Z...AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATER IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AT MOST LOCATIONS AND INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS. 82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  27  42  20  44 /  60  10   0   0
ALW  30  43  24  44 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  32  50  19  49 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  34  49  22  48 /  30   0   0   0
HRI  30  48  18  48 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  31  48  20  49 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  25  37   8  46 /  80  30   0   0
LGD  30  41  15  42 /  50  20   0   0
GCD  25  37  10  43 /  80  60   0   0
DLS  34  52  24  49 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82








000
FXUS66 KPDT 272231
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
231 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN
REDEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATER TONIGHT. A DEFORMATION PRECIP
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST
OREGON NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THIS BAND WILL BECOME
ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER NEVADA. WITH THE PRECIP BAND OVER
EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON OVERNIGHT AND LOW TEMPS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING, EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
WILL SEE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS OUR
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON ZONES AS THE PRECIP BAND ADJUSTS IT`S
POSITION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS THE PRECIP OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OREGON WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY MORNING, AND LARGELY BE DONE BY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THESE WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE SIMCOE
HIGHLANDS. THESE WINDS MAY APPROACH SUSTAINED 30 MPH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORIES AS WOULD
LIKE TO SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE
FAIR, DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE
CASCADE CREST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 90

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM
THE NORTH ON MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA ON TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD AND
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ANY LOCAL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE CASCADES. COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD
KYKM AND KDLS CAUSING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. THE RAIN MAY SPREAD FAR
ENOUGH EAST LATER THIS MORNING TO REACH KPDT...BUT KALW AND KPSC
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO KRDM AND KBDN AROUND
00Z...AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATER IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AT MOST LOCATIONS AND INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS. 82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  27  42  20  44 /  60  10   0   0
ALW  30  43  24  44 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  32  50  19  49 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  34  49  22  48 /  30   0   0   0
HRI  30  48  18  48 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  31  48  20  49 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  25  37   8  46 /  80  30   0   0
LGD  30  41  15  42 /  50  20   0   0
GCD  25  37  10  43 /  80  60   0   0
DLS  34  52  24  49 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82









000
FXUS66 KPQR 272224
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
223 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES... AND A FEW
MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEFORE SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEEKEND WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY
COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
FOR DRIER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS CAUSING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME SUNBREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED AS WELL...AND MAY STILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET.
WITH FREEZING LEVELS IN THE 5000 FT RANGE...ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL HAIL.

AREA WEBCAMS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS ARE LINGERING IN THE 4000-5000 FT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW IS ONLY BRIEFLY STICKING TO THE ROADS OVER
THE CASCADE PASSES WHEN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PASS THROUGH. SNOW
SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER TIME STICKING AS TEMPERATURES START TO FALL
AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NUMBER OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
DECREASING BY THEN FOR THE S WA/N OR CASCADES...SO WE WILL LET THE
SNOW ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 3 PM FOR THOSE ZONES. LANE COUNTY CASCADES
WILL REMAIN IN BETTER OROGRAPHIC FLOW A LITTLE LONGER...AND AS A
RESULT THE LATEST NAM/HRRR RUNS HAVE ABOUT 0.25 INCH OF ADDITIONAL
QPF IN THE 00-06Z PERIOD. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET...SO WE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SNOW ADVISORY
UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES.

MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS OUR UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA
AND FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WASHINGTON
SATURDAY...WITH THE RESULTING DRY N-NE FLOW CLEARING US OUT QUICKLY.
BY MIDDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT BUT WITH
SOME BLUSTERY NORTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS STUCK IN THE LOWER 50S. THE
N-NE FLOW AND DRY AIR MASS MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG TO FORM THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT IN THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS LESS
WIND AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT DISTURBANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE INTO THE PAC NW
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE FINER
DETAILS...BUT THE BROAD CONSENSUS KEEPS TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS DURING
THIS EVENT. ONE WILL DIG SE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...
FOLLOWED THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE REMAINS WEAKER AND TRACKS DOWN THE BC
COAST. 12Z/18Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL HAVE ENOUGH OVERWATER TRAJECTORY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS SUN NIGHT/MON...WHILE THE 12Z GEM KEEPS OUR
SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HELD
POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. IF WE
DO GET PRECIP...THE CASCADES COULD GET ANOTHER DUSTING OF SNOW BUT IT
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
RETURNS TO WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER TUE/WED...OVER THE
NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
TUE/WED...PROBABLY LONGER. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND
THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH ONLY A
SMALL PIECE OF IT PUSHING INTO THE MID-COLUMBIA BASIN. THUS EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK...CLEAR AND
CHILLY NIGHTS WITH SUNNY DAYS AND AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION. HELD POPS BELOW
CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MEAN
RIDGE POSITION ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST COAST.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTH TO
THE SOUTH AS THE RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING TO THE NORTH...AND INTO THE
LATE EVENING FOR AREAS IN LANE COUNTY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES NORTH OF THE LOW...AND IT IS LOOKING MORE PROMISING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS
ARE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE GORGE...ALL BE IT LIGHT SO FAR...AND
WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP WITH MIXING AND INHIBIT
FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS. AREAS SOUTH OF
SALEM MAY HOLD ON TO SOME MVFR STRATUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST WINDS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE
COAST AND EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING THERE TOO.
GUSTY N-E WINDS EXPECTED AT MANY OF THE AIRPORTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLEARING TONIGHT. EAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING BUT
REMAIN BELOW 12 KT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST
WINDS...AND ANY CLOUD COVER...SHOULD HELP INHIBIT IFR FOG FROM
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING.  TJ

&&

.MARINE...THE A LOW IS STILL MAKING ITS WAY ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS UNDER THE LOW WILL HAVE A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF CALM WIND...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN. STILL EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
BEYOND 10 NM LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF THE WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THE WINDS VEER TO THE NE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PRODUCE BELOW ADVISORY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY ANOTHER PERIOD WITH MARGINAL ADVISORY
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM.

THE SEAS SHOULD BECOME LESS STEEP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE WAVE PERIODS REMAIN AROUND 9 SECONDS AND THE SWELL
DECREASES TO 7 TO 8 FEET. THESE SEAS ARE STILL RATHER STEEP...BUT
THE STEEPNESS SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE W-NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST TONIGHT FOR CASCADES
     IN LANE COUNTY.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM 10 TO 60.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON OUT 10 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 272224
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
224 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES, AND EVEN A STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN
SPOTTY AT BEST, BUT AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR ROADS
DESPITE ONGOING SNOWFALL, LIKELY A RESULT OF WARMER GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME INSOLATION. HOWEVER, ONCE TEMPERATURES
COOL LATER THIS EVENING, MUCH OF THAT SNOWMELT COULD REFREEZE, AND
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL, ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE
SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN ORDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HAZARDS RESULTING FOR THESE CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE COLD AIR AND
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AT THAT TIME, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION, AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST. WHILE THIS MEANS
LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, IT DOES MEAN THAT THE SOUTHWEST
OREGON COAST WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A HEALTHY CHETCO
EFFECT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND CLEARING
SKIES, SUSPECT THAT FOG MAY BE A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN, DRY OFFSHORE FLOW COULD LIMIT
FORMATION. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL OVERNIGHT
COOLING, WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO BE COLDER THAN THOSE
SEEN LATELY, ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY NEED TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH,
ARRIVING BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR, BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 3000 TO
4000 FEET, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE DYNAMICS OR THE MOISTURE OF
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS, EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
BEGIN MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. -BPN

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OFFSHORE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.  MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE REGION.  AT
THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING SOME OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE MOUNTAINS.

LATER IN THE WEEK, ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST ON FRIDAY BUT VARIABILITY REMAINS ON THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WHETHER THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE
COAST OR REMAIN OFFSHORE. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND ON FRIDAY.
/CC

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/18Z TAF CYCLE...AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUE, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIG AND AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH TODAY. ALSO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH AROUND 03Z.   SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE SNOW LEVEL DROP FROM AROUND 4000 FT TODAY TO
3000 FT MSL TONIGHT. AS SHOWERS DIMINISH, MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED IFR
CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN, INCLUDING KRBG, WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE AND PARTIAL
CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 9 AM PST, FRIDAY, 27 FEB, 2015...LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH AND REACH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE
WINDS IN THAT AREA WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE DURING LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A PEAK. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER WEAKER FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BPN/CC



000
FXUS66 KPQR 272224
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
223 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES... AND A FEW
MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEFORE SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEEKEND WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY
COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
FOR DRIER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS CAUSING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME SUNBREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED AS WELL...AND MAY STILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET.
WITH FREEZING LEVELS IN THE 5000 FT RANGE...ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL HAIL.

AREA WEBCAMS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS ARE LINGERING IN THE 4000-5000 FT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW IS ONLY BRIEFLY STICKING TO THE ROADS OVER
THE CASCADE PASSES WHEN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PASS THROUGH. SNOW
SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER TIME STICKING AS TEMPERATURES START TO FALL
AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NUMBER OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
DECREASING BY THEN FOR THE S WA/N OR CASCADES...SO WE WILL LET THE
SNOW ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 3 PM FOR THOSE ZONES. LANE COUNTY CASCADES
WILL REMAIN IN BETTER OROGRAPHIC FLOW A LITTLE LONGER...AND AS A
RESULT THE LATEST NAM/HRRR RUNS HAVE ABOUT 0.25 INCH OF ADDITIONAL
QPF IN THE 00-06Z PERIOD. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET...SO WE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SNOW ADVISORY
UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES.

MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS OUR UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA
AND FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WASHINGTON
SATURDAY...WITH THE RESULTING DRY N-NE FLOW CLEARING US OUT QUICKLY.
BY MIDDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT BUT WITH
SOME BLUSTERY NORTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS STUCK IN THE LOWER 50S. THE
N-NE FLOW AND DRY AIR MASS MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG TO FORM THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT IN THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS LESS
WIND AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT DISTURBANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE INTO THE PAC NW
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE FINER
DETAILS...BUT THE BROAD CONSENSUS KEEPS TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS DURING
THIS EVENT. ONE WILL DIG SE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...
FOLLOWED THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE REMAINS WEAKER AND TRACKS DOWN THE BC
COAST. 12Z/18Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL HAVE ENOUGH OVERWATER TRAJECTORY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS SUN NIGHT/MON...WHILE THE 12Z GEM KEEPS OUR
SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HELD
POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. IF WE
DO GET PRECIP...THE CASCADES COULD GET ANOTHER DUSTING OF SNOW BUT IT
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
RETURNS TO WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER TUE/WED...OVER THE
NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
TUE/WED...PROBABLY LONGER. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND
THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH ONLY A
SMALL PIECE OF IT PUSHING INTO THE MID-COLUMBIA BASIN. THUS EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK...CLEAR AND
CHILLY NIGHTS WITH SUNNY DAYS AND AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION. HELD POPS BELOW
CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MEAN
RIDGE POSITION ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST COAST.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTH TO
THE SOUTH AS THE RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING TO THE NORTH...AND INTO THE
LATE EVENING FOR AREAS IN LANE COUNTY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES NORTH OF THE LOW...AND IT IS LOOKING MORE PROMISING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS
ARE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE GORGE...ALL BE IT LIGHT SO FAR...AND
WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP WITH MIXING AND INHIBIT
FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS. AREAS SOUTH OF
SALEM MAY HOLD ON TO SOME MVFR STRATUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST WINDS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE
COAST AND EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING THERE TOO.
GUSTY N-E WINDS EXPECTED AT MANY OF THE AIRPORTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLEARING TONIGHT. EAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING BUT
REMAIN BELOW 12 KT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST
WINDS...AND ANY CLOUD COVER...SHOULD HELP INHIBIT IFR FOG FROM
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING.  TJ

&&

.MARINE...THE A LOW IS STILL MAKING ITS WAY ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS UNDER THE LOW WILL HAVE A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF CALM WIND...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN. STILL EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
BEYOND 10 NM LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF THE WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THE WINDS VEER TO THE NE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PRODUCE BELOW ADVISORY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY ANOTHER PERIOD WITH MARGINAL ADVISORY
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM.

THE SEAS SHOULD BECOME LESS STEEP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE WAVE PERIODS REMAIN AROUND 9 SECONDS AND THE SWELL
DECREASES TO 7 TO 8 FEET. THESE SEAS ARE STILL RATHER STEEP...BUT
THE STEEPNESS SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE W-NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST TONIGHT FOR CASCADES
     IN LANE COUNTY.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM 10 TO 60.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON OUT 10 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 272224
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
224 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES, AND EVEN A STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN
SPOTTY AT BEST, BUT AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR ROADS
DESPITE ONGOING SNOWFALL, LIKELY A RESULT OF WARMER GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME INSOLATION. HOWEVER, ONCE TEMPERATURES
COOL LATER THIS EVENING, MUCH OF THAT SNOWMELT COULD REFREEZE, AND
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL, ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE
SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN ORDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HAZARDS RESULTING FOR THESE CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE COLD AIR AND
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AT THAT TIME, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION, AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST. WHILE THIS MEANS
LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, IT DOES MEAN THAT THE SOUTHWEST
OREGON COAST WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A HEALTHY CHETCO
EFFECT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND CLEARING
SKIES, SUSPECT THAT FOG MAY BE A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN, DRY OFFSHORE FLOW COULD LIMIT
FORMATION. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL OVERNIGHT
COOLING, WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO BE COLDER THAN THOSE
SEEN LATELY, ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY NEED TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH,
ARRIVING BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR, BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 3000 TO
4000 FEET, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE DYNAMICS OR THE MOISTURE OF
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS, EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
BEGIN MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. -BPN

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OFFSHORE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.  MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE REGION.  AT
THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING SOME OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE MOUNTAINS.

LATER IN THE WEEK, ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST ON FRIDAY BUT VARIABILITY REMAINS ON THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WHETHER THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE
COAST OR REMAIN OFFSHORE. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND ON FRIDAY.
/CC

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/18Z TAF CYCLE...AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUE, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIG AND AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH TODAY. ALSO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH AROUND 03Z.   SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE SNOW LEVEL DROP FROM AROUND 4000 FT TODAY TO
3000 FT MSL TONIGHT. AS SHOWERS DIMINISH, MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED IFR
CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN, INCLUDING KRBG, WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE AND PARTIAL
CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 9 AM PST, FRIDAY, 27 FEB, 2015...LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH AND REACH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE
WINDS IN THAT AREA WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE DURING LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A PEAK. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER WEAKER FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BPN/CC



000
FXUS66 KPQR 272224
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
223 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES... AND A FEW
MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEFORE SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEEKEND WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY
COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
FOR DRIER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS CAUSING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME SUNBREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED AS WELL...AND MAY STILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET.
WITH FREEZING LEVELS IN THE 5000 FT RANGE...ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL HAIL.

AREA WEBCAMS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS ARE LINGERING IN THE 4000-5000 FT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW IS ONLY BRIEFLY STICKING TO THE ROADS OVER
THE CASCADE PASSES WHEN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PASS THROUGH. SNOW
SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER TIME STICKING AS TEMPERATURES START TO FALL
AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NUMBER OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
DECREASING BY THEN FOR THE S WA/N OR CASCADES...SO WE WILL LET THE
SNOW ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 3 PM FOR THOSE ZONES. LANE COUNTY CASCADES
WILL REMAIN IN BETTER OROGRAPHIC FLOW A LITTLE LONGER...AND AS A
RESULT THE LATEST NAM/HRRR RUNS HAVE ABOUT 0.25 INCH OF ADDITIONAL
QPF IN THE 00-06Z PERIOD. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET...SO WE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SNOW ADVISORY
UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES.

MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS OUR UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA
AND FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WASHINGTON
SATURDAY...WITH THE RESULTING DRY N-NE FLOW CLEARING US OUT QUICKLY.
BY MIDDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT BUT WITH
SOME BLUSTERY NORTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS STUCK IN THE LOWER 50S. THE
N-NE FLOW AND DRY AIR MASS MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG TO FORM THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT IN THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS LESS
WIND AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT DISTURBANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE INTO THE PAC NW
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE FINER
DETAILS...BUT THE BROAD CONSENSUS KEEPS TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS DURING
THIS EVENT. ONE WILL DIG SE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...
FOLLOWED THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE REMAINS WEAKER AND TRACKS DOWN THE BC
COAST. 12Z/18Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL HAVE ENOUGH OVERWATER TRAJECTORY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS SUN NIGHT/MON...WHILE THE 12Z GEM KEEPS OUR
SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HELD
POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. IF WE
DO GET PRECIP...THE CASCADES COULD GET ANOTHER DUSTING OF SNOW BUT IT
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
RETURNS TO WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER TUE/WED...OVER THE
NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
TUE/WED...PROBABLY LONGER. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND
THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH ONLY A
SMALL PIECE OF IT PUSHING INTO THE MID-COLUMBIA BASIN. THUS EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK...CLEAR AND
CHILLY NIGHTS WITH SUNNY DAYS AND AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION. HELD POPS BELOW
CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MEAN
RIDGE POSITION ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST COAST.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTH TO
THE SOUTH AS THE RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING TO THE NORTH...AND INTO THE
LATE EVENING FOR AREAS IN LANE COUNTY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES NORTH OF THE LOW...AND IT IS LOOKING MORE PROMISING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS
ARE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE GORGE...ALL BE IT LIGHT SO FAR...AND
WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP WITH MIXING AND INHIBIT
FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS. AREAS SOUTH OF
SALEM MAY HOLD ON TO SOME MVFR STRATUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST WINDS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE
COAST AND EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING THERE TOO.
GUSTY N-E WINDS EXPECTED AT MANY OF THE AIRPORTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLEARING TONIGHT. EAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING BUT
REMAIN BELOW 12 KT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST
WINDS...AND ANY CLOUD COVER...SHOULD HELP INHIBIT IFR FOG FROM
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING.  TJ

&&

.MARINE...THE A LOW IS STILL MAKING ITS WAY ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS UNDER THE LOW WILL HAVE A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF CALM WIND...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN. STILL EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
BEYOND 10 NM LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF THE WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THE WINDS VEER TO THE NE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PRODUCE BELOW ADVISORY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY ANOTHER PERIOD WITH MARGINAL ADVISORY
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM.

THE SEAS SHOULD BECOME LESS STEEP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE WAVE PERIODS REMAIN AROUND 9 SECONDS AND THE SWELL
DECREASES TO 7 TO 8 FEET. THESE SEAS ARE STILL RATHER STEEP...BUT
THE STEEPNESS SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE W-NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST TONIGHT FOR CASCADES
     IN LANE COUNTY.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM 10 TO 60.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON OUT 10 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 272224
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
223 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES... AND A FEW
MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEFORE SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEEKEND WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY
COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
FOR DRIER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS CAUSING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME SUNBREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED AS WELL...AND MAY STILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET.
WITH FREEZING LEVELS IN THE 5000 FT RANGE...ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL HAIL.

AREA WEBCAMS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS ARE LINGERING IN THE 4000-5000 FT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW IS ONLY BRIEFLY STICKING TO THE ROADS OVER
THE CASCADE PASSES WHEN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PASS THROUGH. SNOW
SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER TIME STICKING AS TEMPERATURES START TO FALL
AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NUMBER OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
DECREASING BY THEN FOR THE S WA/N OR CASCADES...SO WE WILL LET THE
SNOW ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 3 PM FOR THOSE ZONES. LANE COUNTY CASCADES
WILL REMAIN IN BETTER OROGRAPHIC FLOW A LITTLE LONGER...AND AS A
RESULT THE LATEST NAM/HRRR RUNS HAVE ABOUT 0.25 INCH OF ADDITIONAL
QPF IN THE 00-06Z PERIOD. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET...SO WE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SNOW ADVISORY
UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES.

MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS OUR UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA
AND FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WASHINGTON
SATURDAY...WITH THE RESULTING DRY N-NE FLOW CLEARING US OUT QUICKLY.
BY MIDDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT BUT WITH
SOME BLUSTERY NORTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS STUCK IN THE LOWER 50S. THE
N-NE FLOW AND DRY AIR MASS MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG TO FORM THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT IN THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS LESS
WIND AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT DISTURBANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE INTO THE PAC NW
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE FINER
DETAILS...BUT THE BROAD CONSENSUS KEEPS TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS DURING
THIS EVENT. ONE WILL DIG SE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...
FOLLOWED THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE REMAINS WEAKER AND TRACKS DOWN THE BC
COAST. 12Z/18Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL HAVE ENOUGH OVERWATER TRAJECTORY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS SUN NIGHT/MON...WHILE THE 12Z GEM KEEPS OUR
SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HELD
POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. IF WE
DO GET PRECIP...THE CASCADES COULD GET ANOTHER DUSTING OF SNOW BUT IT
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
RETURNS TO WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER TUE/WED...OVER THE
NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
TUE/WED...PROBABLY LONGER. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND
THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH ONLY A
SMALL PIECE OF IT PUSHING INTO THE MID-COLUMBIA BASIN. THUS EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK...CLEAR AND
CHILLY NIGHTS WITH SUNNY DAYS AND AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION. HELD POPS BELOW
CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MEAN
RIDGE POSITION ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST COAST.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTH TO
THE SOUTH AS THE RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING TO THE NORTH...AND INTO THE
LATE EVENING FOR AREAS IN LANE COUNTY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES NORTH OF THE LOW...AND IT IS LOOKING MORE PROMISING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS
ARE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE GORGE...ALL BE IT LIGHT SO FAR...AND
WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP WITH MIXING AND INHIBIT
FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS. AREAS SOUTH OF
SALEM MAY HOLD ON TO SOME MVFR STRATUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST WINDS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE
COAST AND EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING THERE TOO.
GUSTY N-E WINDS EXPECTED AT MANY OF THE AIRPORTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLEARING TONIGHT. EAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING BUT
REMAIN BELOW 12 KT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST
WINDS...AND ANY CLOUD COVER...SHOULD HELP INHIBIT IFR FOG FROM
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING.  TJ

&&

.MARINE...THE A LOW IS STILL MAKING ITS WAY ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS UNDER THE LOW WILL HAVE A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF CALM WIND...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN. STILL EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
BEYOND 10 NM LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF THE WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THE WINDS VEER TO THE NE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PRODUCE BELOW ADVISORY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY ANOTHER PERIOD WITH MARGINAL ADVISORY
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM.

THE SEAS SHOULD BECOME LESS STEEP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE WAVE PERIODS REMAIN AROUND 9 SECONDS AND THE SWELL
DECREASES TO 7 TO 8 FEET. THESE SEAS ARE STILL RATHER STEEP...BUT
THE STEEPNESS SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE W-NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST TONIGHT FOR CASCADES
     IN LANE COUNTY.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM 10 TO 60.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON OUT 10 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 272224
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
223 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES... AND A FEW
MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEFORE SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEEKEND WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY
COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
FOR DRIER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS CAUSING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME SUNBREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED AS WELL...AND MAY STILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET.
WITH FREEZING LEVELS IN THE 5000 FT RANGE...ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL HAIL.

AREA WEBCAMS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS ARE LINGERING IN THE 4000-5000 FT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW IS ONLY BRIEFLY STICKING TO THE ROADS OVER
THE CASCADE PASSES WHEN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PASS THROUGH. SNOW
SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER TIME STICKING AS TEMPERATURES START TO FALL
AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NUMBER OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
DECREASING BY THEN FOR THE S WA/N OR CASCADES...SO WE WILL LET THE
SNOW ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 3 PM FOR THOSE ZONES. LANE COUNTY CASCADES
WILL REMAIN IN BETTER OROGRAPHIC FLOW A LITTLE LONGER...AND AS A
RESULT THE LATEST NAM/HRRR RUNS HAVE ABOUT 0.25 INCH OF ADDITIONAL
QPF IN THE 00-06Z PERIOD. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET...SO WE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SNOW ADVISORY
UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES.

MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS OUR UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA
AND FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WASHINGTON
SATURDAY...WITH THE RESULTING DRY N-NE FLOW CLEARING US OUT QUICKLY.
BY MIDDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT BUT WITH
SOME BLUSTERY NORTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS STUCK IN THE LOWER 50S. THE
N-NE FLOW AND DRY AIR MASS MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG TO FORM THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT IN THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS LESS
WIND AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT DISTURBANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE INTO THE PAC NW
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE FINER
DETAILS...BUT THE BROAD CONSENSUS KEEPS TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS DURING
THIS EVENT. ONE WILL DIG SE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...
FOLLOWED THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE REMAINS WEAKER AND TRACKS DOWN THE BC
COAST. 12Z/18Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL HAVE ENOUGH OVERWATER TRAJECTORY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS SUN NIGHT/MON...WHILE THE 12Z GEM KEEPS OUR
SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HELD
POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. IF WE
DO GET PRECIP...THE CASCADES COULD GET ANOTHER DUSTING OF SNOW BUT IT
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
RETURNS TO WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER TUE/WED...OVER THE
NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
TUE/WED...PROBABLY LONGER. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND
THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH ONLY A
SMALL PIECE OF IT PUSHING INTO THE MID-COLUMBIA BASIN. THUS EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK...CLEAR AND
CHILLY NIGHTS WITH SUNNY DAYS AND AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION. HELD POPS BELOW
CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MEAN
RIDGE POSITION ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST COAST.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTH TO
THE SOUTH AS THE RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING TO THE NORTH...AND INTO THE
LATE EVENING FOR AREAS IN LANE COUNTY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES NORTH OF THE LOW...AND IT IS LOOKING MORE PROMISING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS
ARE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE GORGE...ALL BE IT LIGHT SO FAR...AND
WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP WITH MIXING AND INHIBIT
FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS. AREAS SOUTH OF
SALEM MAY HOLD ON TO SOME MVFR STRATUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST WINDS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE
COAST AND EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING THERE TOO.
GUSTY N-E WINDS EXPECTED AT MANY OF THE AIRPORTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLEARING TONIGHT. EAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING BUT
REMAIN BELOW 12 KT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST
WINDS...AND ANY CLOUD COVER...SHOULD HELP INHIBIT IFR FOG FROM
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING.  TJ

&&

.MARINE...THE A LOW IS STILL MAKING ITS WAY ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS UNDER THE LOW WILL HAVE A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF CALM WIND...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN. STILL EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
BEYOND 10 NM LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF THE WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THE WINDS VEER TO THE NE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PRODUCE BELOW ADVISORY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY ANOTHER PERIOD WITH MARGINAL ADVISORY
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM.

THE SEAS SHOULD BECOME LESS STEEP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE WAVE PERIODS REMAIN AROUND 9 SECONDS AND THE SWELL
DECREASES TO 7 TO 8 FEET. THESE SEAS ARE STILL RATHER STEEP...BUT
THE STEEPNESS SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE W-NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST TONIGHT FOR CASCADES
     IN LANE COUNTY.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM 10 TO 60.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON OUT 10 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 272224
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
224 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES, AND EVEN A STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN
SPOTTY AT BEST, BUT AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR ROADS
DESPITE ONGOING SNOWFALL, LIKELY A RESULT OF WARMER GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME INSOLATION. HOWEVER, ONCE TEMPERATURES
COOL LATER THIS EVENING, MUCH OF THAT SNOWMELT COULD REFREEZE, AND
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL, ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE
SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN ORDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HAZARDS RESULTING FOR THESE CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE COLD AIR AND
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AT THAT TIME, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION, AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST. WHILE THIS MEANS
LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, IT DOES MEAN THAT THE SOUTHWEST
OREGON COAST WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A HEALTHY CHETCO
EFFECT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND CLEARING
SKIES, SUSPECT THAT FOG MAY BE A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN, DRY OFFSHORE FLOW COULD LIMIT
FORMATION. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL OVERNIGHT
COOLING, WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO BE COLDER THAN THOSE
SEEN LATELY, ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY NEED TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH,
ARRIVING BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR, BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 3000 TO
4000 FEET, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE DYNAMICS OR THE MOISTURE OF
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS, EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
BEGIN MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. -BPN

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OFFSHORE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.  MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE REGION.  AT
THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING SOME OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE MOUNTAINS.

LATER IN THE WEEK, ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST ON FRIDAY BUT VARIABILITY REMAINS ON THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WHETHER THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE
COAST OR REMAIN OFFSHORE. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND ON FRIDAY.
/CC

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/18Z TAF CYCLE...AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUE, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIG AND AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH TODAY. ALSO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH AROUND 03Z.   SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE SNOW LEVEL DROP FROM AROUND 4000 FT TODAY TO
3000 FT MSL TONIGHT. AS SHOWERS DIMINISH, MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED IFR
CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN, INCLUDING KRBG, WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE AND PARTIAL
CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 9 AM PST, FRIDAY, 27 FEB, 2015...LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH AND REACH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE
WINDS IN THAT AREA WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE DURING LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A PEAK. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER WEAKER FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BPN/CC



000
FXUS66 KMFR 272224
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
224 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES, AND EVEN A STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN
SPOTTY AT BEST, BUT AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR ROADS
DESPITE ONGOING SNOWFALL, LIKELY A RESULT OF WARMER GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME INSOLATION. HOWEVER, ONCE TEMPERATURES
COOL LATER THIS EVENING, MUCH OF THAT SNOWMELT COULD REFREEZE, AND
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL, ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE
SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN ORDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HAZARDS RESULTING FOR THESE CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE COLD AIR AND
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AT THAT TIME, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION, AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST. WHILE THIS MEANS
LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, IT DOES MEAN THAT THE SOUTHWEST
OREGON COAST WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A HEALTHY CHETCO
EFFECT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND CLEARING
SKIES, SUSPECT THAT FOG MAY BE A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN, DRY OFFSHORE FLOW COULD LIMIT
FORMATION. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL OVERNIGHT
COOLING, WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO BE COLDER THAN THOSE
SEEN LATELY, ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY NEED TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH,
ARRIVING BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR, BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 3000 TO
4000 FEET, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE DYNAMICS OR THE MOISTURE OF
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS, EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
BEGIN MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. -BPN

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OFFSHORE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.  MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE REGION.  AT
THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING SOME OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE MOUNTAINS.

LATER IN THE WEEK, ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST ON FRIDAY BUT VARIABILITY REMAINS ON THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WHETHER THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE
COAST OR REMAIN OFFSHORE. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND ON FRIDAY.
/CC

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/18Z TAF CYCLE...AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUE, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIG AND AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH TODAY. ALSO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH AROUND 03Z.   SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE SNOW LEVEL DROP FROM AROUND 4000 FT TODAY TO
3000 FT MSL TONIGHT. AS SHOWERS DIMINISH, MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED IFR
CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN, INCLUDING KRBG, WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE AND PARTIAL
CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 9 AM PST, FRIDAY, 27 FEB, 2015...LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH AND REACH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE
WINDS IN THAT AREA WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE DURING LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A PEAK. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER WEAKER FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BPN/CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 272224
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
224 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES, AND EVEN A STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN
SPOTTY AT BEST, BUT AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR ROADS
DESPITE ONGOING SNOWFALL, LIKELY A RESULT OF WARMER GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME INSOLATION. HOWEVER, ONCE TEMPERATURES
COOL LATER THIS EVENING, MUCH OF THAT SNOWMELT COULD REFREEZE, AND
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL, ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE
SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN ORDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HAZARDS RESULTING FOR THESE CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE COLD AIR AND
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AT THAT TIME, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION, AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST. WHILE THIS MEANS
LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, IT DOES MEAN THAT THE SOUTHWEST
OREGON COAST WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A HEALTHY CHETCO
EFFECT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND CLEARING
SKIES, SUSPECT THAT FOG MAY BE A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN, DRY OFFSHORE FLOW COULD LIMIT
FORMATION. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL OVERNIGHT
COOLING, WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO BE COLDER THAN THOSE
SEEN LATELY, ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY NEED TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH,
ARRIVING BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR, BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 3000 TO
4000 FEET, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE DYNAMICS OR THE MOISTURE OF
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS, EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
BEGIN MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. -BPN

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OFFSHORE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.  MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE REGION.  AT
THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING SOME OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE MOUNTAINS.

LATER IN THE WEEK, ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST ON FRIDAY BUT VARIABILITY REMAINS ON THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WHETHER THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE
COAST OR REMAIN OFFSHORE. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND ON FRIDAY.
/CC

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/18Z TAF CYCLE...AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUE, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIG AND AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH TODAY. ALSO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH AROUND 03Z.   SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE SNOW LEVEL DROP FROM AROUND 4000 FT TODAY TO
3000 FT MSL TONIGHT. AS SHOWERS DIMINISH, MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED IFR
CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN, INCLUDING KRBG, WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE AND PARTIAL
CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 9 AM PST, FRIDAY, 27 FEB, 2015...LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH AND REACH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE
WINDS IN THAT AREA WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE DURING LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A PEAK. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER WEAKER FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BPN/CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 272224
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
224 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES, AND EVEN A STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN
SPOTTY AT BEST, BUT AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR ROADS
DESPITE ONGOING SNOWFALL, LIKELY A RESULT OF WARMER GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME INSOLATION. HOWEVER, ONCE TEMPERATURES
COOL LATER THIS EVENING, MUCH OF THAT SNOWMELT COULD REFREEZE, AND
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL, ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE
SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN ORDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HAZARDS RESULTING FOR THESE CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE COLD AIR AND
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AT THAT TIME, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION, AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST. WHILE THIS MEANS
LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, IT DOES MEAN THAT THE SOUTHWEST
OREGON COAST WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A HEALTHY CHETCO
EFFECT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND CLEARING
SKIES, SUSPECT THAT FOG MAY BE A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN, DRY OFFSHORE FLOW COULD LIMIT
FORMATION. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL OVERNIGHT
COOLING, WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO BE COLDER THAN THOSE
SEEN LATELY, ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY NEED TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH,
ARRIVING BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR, BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 3000 TO
4000 FEET, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE DYNAMICS OR THE MOISTURE OF
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS, EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
BEGIN MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. -BPN

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OFFSHORE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.  MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE REGION.  AT
THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING SOME OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE MOUNTAINS.

LATER IN THE WEEK, ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST ON FRIDAY BUT VARIABILITY REMAINS ON THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WHETHER THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE
COAST OR REMAIN OFFSHORE. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND ON FRIDAY.
/CC

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/18Z TAF CYCLE...AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUE, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIG AND AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH TODAY. ALSO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH AROUND 03Z.   SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE SNOW LEVEL DROP FROM AROUND 4000 FT TODAY TO
3000 FT MSL TONIGHT. AS SHOWERS DIMINISH, MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED IFR
CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN, INCLUDING KRBG, WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE AND PARTIAL
CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 9 AM PST, FRIDAY, 27 FEB, 2015...LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH AND REACH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE
WINDS IN THAT AREA WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE DURING LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A PEAK. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER WEAKER FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BPN/CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 272224
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
224 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES, AND EVEN A STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN
SPOTTY AT BEST, BUT AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR ROADS
DESPITE ONGOING SNOWFALL, LIKELY A RESULT OF WARMER GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME INSOLATION. HOWEVER, ONCE TEMPERATURES
COOL LATER THIS EVENING, MUCH OF THAT SNOWMELT COULD REFREEZE, AND
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL, ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE
SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN ORDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HAZARDS RESULTING FOR THESE CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE COLD AIR AND
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AT THAT TIME, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION, AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST. WHILE THIS MEANS
LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, IT DOES MEAN THAT THE SOUTHWEST
OREGON COAST WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A HEALTHY CHETCO
EFFECT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND CLEARING
SKIES, SUSPECT THAT FOG MAY BE A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN, DRY OFFSHORE FLOW COULD LIMIT
FORMATION. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL OVERNIGHT
COOLING, WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO BE COLDER THAN THOSE
SEEN LATELY, ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY NEED TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH,
ARRIVING BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR, BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 3000 TO
4000 FEET, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE DYNAMICS OR THE MOISTURE OF
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS, EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
BEGIN MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. -BPN

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OFFSHORE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.  MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE REGION.  AT
THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING SOME OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE MOUNTAINS.

LATER IN THE WEEK, ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST ON FRIDAY BUT VARIABILITY REMAINS ON THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WHETHER THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE
COAST OR REMAIN OFFSHORE. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND ON FRIDAY.
/CC

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/18Z TAF CYCLE...AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUE, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIG AND AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH TODAY. ALSO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH AROUND 03Z.   SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE SNOW LEVEL DROP FROM AROUND 4000 FT TODAY TO
3000 FT MSL TONIGHT. AS SHOWERS DIMINISH, MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED IFR
CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN, INCLUDING KRBG, WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE AND PARTIAL
CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 9 AM PST, FRIDAY, 27 FEB, 2015...LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH AND REACH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE
WINDS IN THAT AREA WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE DURING LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A PEAK. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER WEAKER FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST
     MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BPN/CC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 272150
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE CANCELLED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN
HARNEY COUNTY AROUND NOON PST AS SNOW DECREASED...ENDED...OR CHANGED
TO LIGHT RAIN.  SNOW ACCUMULATED AROUND 4 INCHES NEAR BURNS/OR.  A
SEPARATE ADVISORY FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF NEW SNOW COMING TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN U.S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  AS IT LEAVES...COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL COME INTO OUR CWA FROM THE NORTH.  THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES NEW SNOW TO EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY.  HEAVIEST SNOW IS
STILL SLATED FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS IN SWRN ID WHERE AN ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE MAIN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT.  THE TREASURE
VALLEY WILL HAVE LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...WITH NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  WET SNOW IN THE MAGIC VALLEY MAY
ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH BUT ROADS SHOULD STAY WET. INSTABILITY
STILL CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN OUR
SRN-MOST ZONES.  AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS SOUTH...NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY.  THESE WINDS MAY CREATE A CONVERGENCE
ZONE IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING THERE WHILE THE
REST OF THE SNAKE BASIN CLEARS.  CLEARING AND DRYING IN ALL AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET AT LEAST TEN DEGREES COLDER
SUNDAY MORNING THAN ON SATURDAY MORNING.  EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN NRN
VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY SHOULD
BE SUNNY AND COLD WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSPORT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO  MOUNTAINS...ENHANCED BY A CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN
TWO SURFACE HIGHS MOVING SOUTH.  PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE AIRMASS TO OUR EAST
WILL BE ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS PRECIPITATION EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS...3K-4K FT MSL
TONIGHT LOWERING TO 2500-3500 FT MSL ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...EAST 5-
15 KTS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON AFTER 18Z ON SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT...EAST 10-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION ENDING
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR ON SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG UNTIL
ABOUT 15Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 272150
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE CANCELLED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN
HARNEY COUNTY AROUND NOON PST AS SNOW DECREASED...ENDED...OR CHANGED
TO LIGHT RAIN.  SNOW ACCUMULATED AROUND 4 INCHES NEAR BURNS/OR.  A
SEPARATE ADVISORY FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF NEW SNOW COMING TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN U.S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  AS IT LEAVES...COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL COME INTO OUR CWA FROM THE NORTH.  THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES NEW SNOW TO EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY.  HEAVIEST SNOW IS
STILL SLATED FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS IN SWRN ID WHERE AN ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE MAIN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT.  THE TREASURE
VALLEY WILL HAVE LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...WITH NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  WET SNOW IN THE MAGIC VALLEY MAY
ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH BUT ROADS SHOULD STAY WET. INSTABILITY
STILL CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN OUR
SRN-MOST ZONES.  AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS SOUTH...NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY.  THESE WINDS MAY CREATE A CONVERGENCE
ZONE IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING THERE WHILE THE
REST OF THE SNAKE BASIN CLEARS.  CLEARING AND DRYING IN ALL AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET AT LEAST TEN DEGREES COLDER
SUNDAY MORNING THAN ON SATURDAY MORNING.  EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN NRN
VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY SHOULD
BE SUNNY AND COLD WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSPORT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO  MOUNTAINS...ENHANCED BY A CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN
TWO SURFACE HIGHS MOVING SOUTH.  PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE AIRMASS TO OUR EAST
WILL BE ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS PRECIPITATION EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS...3K-4K FT MSL
TONIGHT LOWERING TO 2500-3500 FT MSL ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...EAST 5-
15 KTS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON AFTER 18Z ON SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT...EAST 10-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION ENDING
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR ON SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG UNTIL
ABOUT 15Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 272150
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE CANCELLED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN
HARNEY COUNTY AROUND NOON PST AS SNOW DECREASED...ENDED...OR CHANGED
TO LIGHT RAIN.  SNOW ACCUMULATED AROUND 4 INCHES NEAR BURNS/OR.  A
SEPARATE ADVISORY FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF NEW SNOW COMING TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN U.S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  AS IT LEAVES...COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL COME INTO OUR CWA FROM THE NORTH.  THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES NEW SNOW TO EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY.  HEAVIEST SNOW IS
STILL SLATED FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS IN SWRN ID WHERE AN ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE MAIN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT.  THE TREASURE
VALLEY WILL HAVE LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...WITH NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  WET SNOW IN THE MAGIC VALLEY MAY
ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH BUT ROADS SHOULD STAY WET. INSTABILITY
STILL CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN OUR
SRN-MOST ZONES.  AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS SOUTH...NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY.  THESE WINDS MAY CREATE A CONVERGENCE
ZONE IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING THERE WHILE THE
REST OF THE SNAKE BASIN CLEARS.  CLEARING AND DRYING IN ALL AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET AT LEAST TEN DEGREES COLDER
SUNDAY MORNING THAN ON SATURDAY MORNING.  EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN NRN
VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY SHOULD
BE SUNNY AND COLD WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSPORT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO  MOUNTAINS...ENHANCED BY A CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN
TWO SURFACE HIGHS MOVING SOUTH.  PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE AIRMASS TO OUR EAST
WILL BE ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS PRECIPITATION EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS...3K-4K FT MSL
TONIGHT LOWERING TO 2500-3500 FT MSL ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...EAST 5-
15 KTS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON AFTER 18Z ON SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT...EAST 10-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION ENDING
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR ON SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG UNTIL
ABOUT 15Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 272150
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE CANCELLED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN
HARNEY COUNTY AROUND NOON PST AS SNOW DECREASED...ENDED...OR CHANGED
TO LIGHT RAIN.  SNOW ACCUMULATED AROUND 4 INCHES NEAR BURNS/OR.  A
SEPARATE ADVISORY FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF NEW SNOW COMING TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN U.S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  AS IT LEAVES...COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL COME INTO OUR CWA FROM THE NORTH.  THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES NEW SNOW TO EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY.  HEAVIEST SNOW IS
STILL SLATED FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS IN SWRN ID WHERE AN ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE MAIN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT.  THE TREASURE
VALLEY WILL HAVE LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...WITH NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  WET SNOW IN THE MAGIC VALLEY MAY
ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH BUT ROADS SHOULD STAY WET. INSTABILITY
STILL CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN OUR
SRN-MOST ZONES.  AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS SOUTH...NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY.  THESE WINDS MAY CREATE A CONVERGENCE
ZONE IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING THERE WHILE THE
REST OF THE SNAKE BASIN CLEARS.  CLEARING AND DRYING IN ALL AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET AT LEAST TEN DEGREES COLDER
SUNDAY MORNING THAN ON SATURDAY MORNING.  EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN NRN
VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY SHOULD
BE SUNNY AND COLD WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSPORT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO  MOUNTAINS...ENHANCED BY A CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN
TWO SURFACE HIGHS MOVING SOUTH.  PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE AIRMASS TO OUR EAST
WILL BE ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS PRECIPITATION EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS...3K-4K FT MSL
TONIGHT LOWERING TO 2500-3500 FT MSL ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...EAST 5-
15 KTS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON AFTER 18Z ON SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT...EAST 10-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION ENDING
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR ON SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG UNTIL
ABOUT 15Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 272150
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE CANCELLED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN
HARNEY COUNTY AROUND NOON PST AS SNOW DECREASED...ENDED...OR CHANGED
TO LIGHT RAIN.  SNOW ACCUMULATED AROUND 4 INCHES NEAR BURNS/OR.  A
SEPARATE ADVISORY FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF NEW SNOW COMING TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN U.S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  AS IT LEAVES...COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL COME INTO OUR CWA FROM THE NORTH.  THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES NEW SNOW TO EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY.  HEAVIEST SNOW IS
STILL SLATED FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS IN SWRN ID WHERE AN ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE MAIN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT.  THE TREASURE
VALLEY WILL HAVE LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...WITH NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  WET SNOW IN THE MAGIC VALLEY MAY
ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH BUT ROADS SHOULD STAY WET. INSTABILITY
STILL CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN OUR
SRN-MOST ZONES.  AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS SOUTH...NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY.  THESE WINDS MAY CREATE A CONVERGENCE
ZONE IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING THERE WHILE THE
REST OF THE SNAKE BASIN CLEARS.  CLEARING AND DRYING IN ALL AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET AT LEAST TEN DEGREES COLDER
SUNDAY MORNING THAN ON SATURDAY MORNING.  EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN NRN
VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY SHOULD
BE SUNNY AND COLD WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSPORT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO  MOUNTAINS...ENHANCED BY A CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN
TWO SURFACE HIGHS MOVING SOUTH.  PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE AIRMASS TO OUR EAST
WILL BE ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS PRECIPITATION EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS...3K-4K FT MSL
TONIGHT LOWERING TO 2500-3500 FT MSL ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...EAST 5-
15 KTS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON AFTER 18Z ON SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT...EAST 10-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION ENDING
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR ON SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG UNTIL
ABOUT 15Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 272150
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE CANCELLED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN
HARNEY COUNTY AROUND NOON PST AS SNOW DECREASED...ENDED...OR CHANGED
TO LIGHT RAIN.  SNOW ACCUMULATED AROUND 4 INCHES NEAR BURNS/OR.  A
SEPARATE ADVISORY FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF NEW SNOW COMING TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN U.S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  AS IT LEAVES...COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL COME INTO OUR CWA FROM THE NORTH.  THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES NEW SNOW TO EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY.  HEAVIEST SNOW IS
STILL SLATED FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS IN SWRN ID WHERE AN ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE MAIN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT.  THE TREASURE
VALLEY WILL HAVE LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...WITH NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  WET SNOW IN THE MAGIC VALLEY MAY
ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH BUT ROADS SHOULD STAY WET. INSTABILITY
STILL CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN OUR
SRN-MOST ZONES.  AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS SOUTH...NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY.  THESE WINDS MAY CREATE A CONVERGENCE
ZONE IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING THERE WHILE THE
REST OF THE SNAKE BASIN CLEARS.  CLEARING AND DRYING IN ALL AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET AT LEAST TEN DEGREES COLDER
SUNDAY MORNING THAN ON SATURDAY MORNING.  EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN NRN
VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY SHOULD
BE SUNNY AND COLD WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSPORT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO  MOUNTAINS...ENHANCED BY A CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN
TWO SURFACE HIGHS MOVING SOUTH.  PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE AIRMASS TO OUR EAST
WILL BE ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS PRECIPITATION EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS...3K-4K FT MSL
TONIGHT LOWERING TO 2500-3500 FT MSL ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...EAST 5-
15 KTS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON AFTER 18Z ON SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT...EAST 10-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION ENDING
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR ON SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG UNTIL
ABOUT 15Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 272150
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE CANCELLED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN
HARNEY COUNTY AROUND NOON PST AS SNOW DECREASED...ENDED...OR CHANGED
TO LIGHT RAIN.  SNOW ACCUMULATED AROUND 4 INCHES NEAR BURNS/OR.  A
SEPARATE ADVISORY FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF NEW SNOW COMING TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN U.S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  AS IT LEAVES...COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL COME INTO OUR CWA FROM THE NORTH.  THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES NEW SNOW TO EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY.  HEAVIEST SNOW IS
STILL SLATED FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS IN SWRN ID WHERE AN ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE MAIN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT.  THE TREASURE
VALLEY WILL HAVE LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...WITH NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  WET SNOW IN THE MAGIC VALLEY MAY
ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH BUT ROADS SHOULD STAY WET. INSTABILITY
STILL CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN OUR
SRN-MOST ZONES.  AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS SOUTH...NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY.  THESE WINDS MAY CREATE A CONVERGENCE
ZONE IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING THERE WHILE THE
REST OF THE SNAKE BASIN CLEARS.  CLEARING AND DRYING IN ALL AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET AT LEAST TEN DEGREES COLDER
SUNDAY MORNING THAN ON SATURDAY MORNING.  EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN NRN
VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY SHOULD
BE SUNNY AND COLD WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSPORT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO  MOUNTAINS...ENHANCED BY A CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN
TWO SURFACE HIGHS MOVING SOUTH.  PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE AIRMASS TO OUR EAST
WILL BE ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS PRECIPITATION EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS...3K-4K FT MSL
TONIGHT LOWERING TO 2500-3500 FT MSL ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...EAST 5-
15 KTS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON AFTER 18Z ON SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT...EAST 10-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION ENDING
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR ON SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG UNTIL
ABOUT 15Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 272150
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE CANCELLED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN
HARNEY COUNTY AROUND NOON PST AS SNOW DECREASED...ENDED...OR CHANGED
TO LIGHT RAIN.  SNOW ACCUMULATED AROUND 4 INCHES NEAR BURNS/OR.  A
SEPARATE ADVISORY FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF NEW SNOW COMING TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN U.S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  AS IT LEAVES...COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL COME INTO OUR CWA FROM THE NORTH.  THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES NEW SNOW TO EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY.  HEAVIEST SNOW IS
STILL SLATED FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS IN SWRN ID WHERE AN ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE MAIN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT.  THE TREASURE
VALLEY WILL HAVE LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...WITH NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  WET SNOW IN THE MAGIC VALLEY MAY
ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH BUT ROADS SHOULD STAY WET. INSTABILITY
STILL CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN OUR
SRN-MOST ZONES.  AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS SOUTH...NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY.  THESE WINDS MAY CREATE A CONVERGENCE
ZONE IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING THERE WHILE THE
REST OF THE SNAKE BASIN CLEARS.  CLEARING AND DRYING IN ALL AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET AT LEAST TEN DEGREES COLDER
SUNDAY MORNING THAN ON SATURDAY MORNING.  EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN NRN
VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY SHOULD
BE SUNNY AND COLD WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSPORT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO  MOUNTAINS...ENHANCED BY A CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN
TWO SURFACE HIGHS MOVING SOUTH.  PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE AIRMASS TO OUR EAST
WILL BE ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS PRECIPITATION EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS...3K-4K FT MSL
TONIGHT LOWERING TO 2500-3500 FT MSL ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...EAST 5-
15 KTS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON AFTER 18Z ON SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT...EAST 10-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION ENDING
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR ON SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG UNTIL
ABOUT 15Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS66 KPQR 271959 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1159 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE
PASSES...BUT THE MAIN PASSES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY WET DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH MAY ALSO ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH
TO CAUSE A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...OR AT LEAST A FEW
HEAVIER SHOWERS WHICH MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL END BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD BACK FOR DRIER WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME
HEAVIER THAN OTHERS. ODOT WEBCAMS SHOW WET ROADS GOING OVER THE
PASSES...WITH A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON THE ROADSIDES. LOOKING AT
AREA SNOW REPORTS IT APPEARS MOST OF THE CASCADES ABOVE 4000 FT HAVE
RECEIVED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3-6 INCHES SO FAR. WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW
ADVISORY AS A COUPLE ADDITIONAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT OF
ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OFFSHORE BETWEEN ABOUT
TILLAMOOK AND FLORENCE...THEREFORE THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES COULD SEE
A BIT MORE ADDITIONAL SNOW THAN OUR MORE NORTHERN CASCADE ZONES.

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE...AS IT APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE. TWEAKED QPF/SNOW TOTALS A BIT TO MATCH THINKING
MENTIONED ABOVE.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 246 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT REACHED THE COAST JUST
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND
HEADED FOR THE CASCADES SHORTLY. THE FRONT IS BRINGING A QUICK BURST
OF PCPN WITH RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS PER HOUR.  SATELLITE AND
MODELS INDICATING A FOLLOWING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LEVELS BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
SLIDE BACK DOWN WITH THE INITIAL FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...REACHING AROUND 3500 TO
4000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 3000 FT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. AN ODOT CAM AT SANTIAM PASS SHOWED WET
ROADS AT 34 DEGREES AROUND 10 PM THU. AT 2 AM ITS 32 AND SNOWING
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD.  MODEL QPF HAS THE MAIN BATCH
OF PCPN OCCURRING WITH THE MORNING SYSTEMS. THIS WILL BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE CASCADES BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM THIS
MORNING.  ALSO THE LATEST MODEL QPF HAS MORE PCPN FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES THAN EARLIER FORECAST SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THAT AREA FOR TODAY.
PCPN WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE DONE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND/OR
THUNDER TODAY. BUT IF IT REMAINS TOO CLOUDY IT MAY BE MORE OF A
SMALL HAIL DAY THAN THUNDER.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE CASCADES.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER REX BLOCK SETTING
UP OVER THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER HOLDS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE N LATE IN THE DAY. WEISHAAR /MH

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF MVFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY. ANY CLOUD BREAKS WILL INTENSIFY
INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO SMALL HAIL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND A LOW SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AS WELL AS BRISK OFFSHORE WINDS MAY LIMIT RADIATION FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR-IFR
WITH FOG SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS AWAY FROM
THE GORGE AND SOUTH TOWARD EUGENE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH
SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIER IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE CIGS DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A STRAY LIGHTNING...BUT THAT
DEPENDS ON HOW MANY CLOUD BREAKS AND SURFACE HEATING THERE WILL
BE LATER THIS MORNING...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND HAIL. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS...THROUGH THE EVENING.
EAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN BELOW 12 KT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST WINDS...AND ANY CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HELP INHIBIT IFR FOG FROM DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TJ

&&

.MARINE...THE US COAST GUARD BAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THAT THE SEAS
ARE LARGER THAN EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT EBB...AND HAVE ISSUED A
SHORT-LIVED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAR. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET ARE
EXPECTED WITH BREAKERS UP TO 14 FEET UNTIL AROUND 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BACK TO 5 O 7 FEET UNTIL THE
NEXT EBB AROUND 1245 AM SATURDAY MORNING. TJ

PREVIOUS MARINE...A LOW MOVING ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN
COAST TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF NW GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 25
KT...MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM...THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE NE BEHIND THE LOW THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE CHANCE FOR GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE NE GUSTS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE BELOW ADVISORY WINDS
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY ANOTHER PERIOD
WITH MARGINAL ADVISORY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...BEYOND 10 NM.

THE BUOYS SUGGEST SQUARE SEAS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS TO INCLUDE THE
INNER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STEEP AND
CHOPPY SEAS. WAVE PERIODS SHOULD INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE
WEST SWELL DECREASES IN HEIGHT. A W-NW 5 TO 7 FT SWELL SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 271959 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1159 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE
PASSES...BUT THE MAIN PASSES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY WET DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH MAY ALSO ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH
TO CAUSE A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...OR AT LEAST A FEW
HEAVIER SHOWERS WHICH MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL END BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD BACK FOR DRIER WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME
HEAVIER THAN OTHERS. ODOT WEBCAMS SHOW WET ROADS GOING OVER THE
PASSES...WITH A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON THE ROADSIDES. LOOKING AT
AREA SNOW REPORTS IT APPEARS MOST OF THE CASCADES ABOVE 4000 FT HAVE
RECEIVED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3-6 INCHES SO FAR. WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW
ADVISORY AS A COUPLE ADDITIONAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT OF
ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OFFSHORE BETWEEN ABOUT
TILLAMOOK AND FLORENCE...THEREFORE THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES COULD SEE
A BIT MORE ADDITIONAL SNOW THAN OUR MORE NORTHERN CASCADE ZONES.

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE...AS IT APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE. TWEAKED QPF/SNOW TOTALS A BIT TO MATCH THINKING
MENTIONED ABOVE.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 246 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT REACHED THE COAST JUST
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND
HEADED FOR THE CASCADES SHORTLY. THE FRONT IS BRINGING A QUICK BURST
OF PCPN WITH RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS PER HOUR.  SATELLITE AND
MODELS INDICATING A FOLLOWING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LEVELS BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
SLIDE BACK DOWN WITH THE INITIAL FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...REACHING AROUND 3500 TO
4000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 3000 FT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. AN ODOT CAM AT SANTIAM PASS SHOWED WET
ROADS AT 34 DEGREES AROUND 10 PM THU. AT 2 AM ITS 32 AND SNOWING
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD.  MODEL QPF HAS THE MAIN BATCH
OF PCPN OCCURRING WITH THE MORNING SYSTEMS. THIS WILL BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE CASCADES BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM THIS
MORNING.  ALSO THE LATEST MODEL QPF HAS MORE PCPN FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES THAN EARLIER FORECAST SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THAT AREA FOR TODAY.
PCPN WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE DONE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND/OR
THUNDER TODAY. BUT IF IT REMAINS TOO CLOUDY IT MAY BE MORE OF A
SMALL HAIL DAY THAN THUNDER.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE CASCADES.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER REX BLOCK SETTING
UP OVER THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER HOLDS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE N LATE IN THE DAY. WEISHAAR /MH

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF MVFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY. ANY CLOUD BREAKS WILL INTENSIFY
INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO SMALL HAIL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND A LOW SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AS WELL AS BRISK OFFSHORE WINDS MAY LIMIT RADIATION FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR-IFR
WITH FOG SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS AWAY FROM
THE GORGE AND SOUTH TOWARD EUGENE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH
SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIER IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE CIGS DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A STRAY LIGHTNING...BUT THAT
DEPENDS ON HOW MANY CLOUD BREAKS AND SURFACE HEATING THERE WILL
BE LATER THIS MORNING...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND HAIL. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS...THROUGH THE EVENING.
EAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN BELOW 12 KT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST WINDS...AND ANY CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HELP INHIBIT IFR FOG FROM DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TJ

&&

.MARINE...THE US COAST GUARD BAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THAT THE SEAS
ARE LARGER THAN EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT EBB...AND HAVE ISSUED A
SHORT-LIVED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAR. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET ARE
EXPECTED WITH BREAKERS UP TO 14 FEET UNTIL AROUND 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BACK TO 5 O 7 FEET UNTIL THE
NEXT EBB AROUND 1245 AM SATURDAY MORNING. TJ

PREVIOUS MARINE...A LOW MOVING ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN
COAST TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF NW GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 25
KT...MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM...THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE NE BEHIND THE LOW THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE CHANCE FOR GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE NE GUSTS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE BELOW ADVISORY WINDS
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY ANOTHER PERIOD
WITH MARGINAL ADVISORY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...BEYOND 10 NM.

THE BUOYS SUGGEST SQUARE SEAS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS TO INCLUDE THE
INNER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STEEP AND
CHOPPY SEAS. WAVE PERIODS SHOULD INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE
WEST SWELL DECREASES IN HEIGHT. A W-NW 5 TO 7 FT SWELL SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 271757
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
957 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE
PASSES...BUT THE MAIN PASSES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY WET DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH MAY ALSO ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH
TO CAUSE A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...OR AT LEAST A FEW
HEAVIER SHOWERS WHICH MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL END BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD BACK FOR DRIER WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME
HEAVIER THAN OTHERS. ODOT WEBCAMS SHOW WET ROADS GOING OVER THE
PASSES...WITH A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON THE ROADSIDES. LOOKING AT
AREA SNOW REPORTS IT APPEARS MOST OF THE CASCADES ABOVE 4000 FT HAVE
RECEIVED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3-6 INCHES SO FAR. WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW
ADVISORY AS A COUPLE ADDITIONAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT OF
ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OFFSHORE BETWEEN ABOUT
TILLAMOOK AND FLORENCE...THEREFORE THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES COULD SEE
A BIT MORE ADDITIONAL SNOW THAN OUR MORE NORTHERN CASCADE ZONES.

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE...AS IT APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE. TWEAKED QPF/SNOW TOTALS A BIT TO MATCH THINKING
MENTIONED ABOVE.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 246 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT REACHED THE COAST JUST
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND
HEADED FOR THE CASCADES SHORTLY. THE FRONT IS BRINGING A QUICK BURST
OF PCPN WITH RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS PER HOUR.  SATELLITE AND
MODELS INDICATING A FOLLOWING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LEVELS BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
SLIDE BACK DOWN WITH THE INITIAL FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...REACHING AROUND 3500 TO
4000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 3000 FT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. AN ODOT CAM AT SANTIAM PASS SHOWED WET
ROADS AT 34 DEGREES AROUND 10 PM THU. AT 2 AM ITS 32 AND SNOWING
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD.  MODEL QPF HAS THE MAIN BATCH
OF PCPN OCCURRING WITH THE MORNING SYSTEMS. THIS WILL BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE CASCADES BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM THIS
MORNING.  ALSO THE LATEST MODEL QPF HAS MORE PCPN FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES THAN EARLIER FORECAST SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THAT AREA FOR TODAY.
PCPN WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE DONE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND/OR
THUNDER TODAY. BUT IF IT REMAINS TOO CLOUDY IT MAY BE MORE OF A
SMALL HAIL DAY THAN THUNDER.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE CASCADES.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER REX BLOCK SETTING
UP OVER THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER HOLDS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE N LATE IN THE DAY. WEISHAAR /MH

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF MVFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY. ANY CLOUD BREAKS WILL INTENSIFY
INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO SMALL HAIL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND A LOW SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AS WELL AS BRISK OFFSHORE WINDS MAY LIMIT RADIATION FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR-IFR
WITH FOG SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS AWAY FROM
THE GORGE AND SOUTH TOWARD EUGENE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH
SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIER IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE CIGS DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A STRAY LIGHTNING...BUT THAT
DEPENDS ON HOW MANY CLOUD BREAKS AND SURFACE HEATING THERE WILL
BE LATER THIS MORNING...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND HAIL. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS...THROUGH THE EVENING.
EAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN BELOW 12 KT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST WINDS...AND ANY CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HELP INHIBIT IFR FOG FROM DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A LOW MOVING ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN COAST
TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF NW GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 25 KT...MAINLY
BEYOND 10 NM...THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE
BEHIND THE LOW THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
CHANCE FOR GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE NE GUSTS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE BELOW ADVISORY
WINDS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY ANOTHER
PERIOD WITH MARGINAL ADVISORY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...BEYOND 10 NM.

THE BUOYS SUGGEST SQUARE SEAS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS TO INCLUDE THE
INNER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STEEP AND
CHOPPY SEAS. WAVE PERIODS SHOULD INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE
WEST SWELL DECREASES IN HEIGHT. A W-NW 5 TO 7 FT SWELL SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 271757
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
957 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE
PASSES...BUT THE MAIN PASSES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY WET DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH MAY ALSO ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH
TO CAUSE A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...OR AT LEAST A FEW
HEAVIER SHOWERS WHICH MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL END BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD BACK FOR DRIER WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME
HEAVIER THAN OTHERS. ODOT WEBCAMS SHOW WET ROADS GOING OVER THE
PASSES...WITH A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON THE ROADSIDES. LOOKING AT
AREA SNOW REPORTS IT APPEARS MOST OF THE CASCADES ABOVE 4000 FT HAVE
RECEIVED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3-6 INCHES SO FAR. WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW
ADVISORY AS A COUPLE ADDITIONAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT OF
ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OFFSHORE BETWEEN ABOUT
TILLAMOOK AND FLORENCE...THEREFORE THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES COULD SEE
A BIT MORE ADDITIONAL SNOW THAN OUR MORE NORTHERN CASCADE ZONES.

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE...AS IT APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE. TWEAKED QPF/SNOW TOTALS A BIT TO MATCH THINKING
MENTIONED ABOVE.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 246 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT REACHED THE COAST JUST
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND
HEADED FOR THE CASCADES SHORTLY. THE FRONT IS BRINGING A QUICK BURST
OF PCPN WITH RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS PER HOUR.  SATELLITE AND
MODELS INDICATING A FOLLOWING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LEVELS BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
SLIDE BACK DOWN WITH THE INITIAL FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...REACHING AROUND 3500 TO
4000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 3000 FT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. AN ODOT CAM AT SANTIAM PASS SHOWED WET
ROADS AT 34 DEGREES AROUND 10 PM THU. AT 2 AM ITS 32 AND SNOWING
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD.  MODEL QPF HAS THE MAIN BATCH
OF PCPN OCCURRING WITH THE MORNING SYSTEMS. THIS WILL BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE CASCADES BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM THIS
MORNING.  ALSO THE LATEST MODEL QPF HAS MORE PCPN FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES THAN EARLIER FORECAST SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THAT AREA FOR TODAY.
PCPN WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE DONE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND/OR
THUNDER TODAY. BUT IF IT REMAINS TOO CLOUDY IT MAY BE MORE OF A
SMALL HAIL DAY THAN THUNDER.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE CASCADES.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER REX BLOCK SETTING
UP OVER THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER HOLDS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE N LATE IN THE DAY. WEISHAAR /MH

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF MVFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY. ANY CLOUD BREAKS WILL INTENSIFY
INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO SMALL HAIL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND A LOW SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AS WELL AS BRISK OFFSHORE WINDS MAY LIMIT RADIATION FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR-IFR
WITH FOG SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS AWAY FROM
THE GORGE AND SOUTH TOWARD EUGENE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH
SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIER IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE CIGS DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A STRAY LIGHTNING...BUT THAT
DEPENDS ON HOW MANY CLOUD BREAKS AND SURFACE HEATING THERE WILL
BE LATER THIS MORNING...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND HAIL. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS...THROUGH THE EVENING.
EAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN BELOW 12 KT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST WINDS...AND ANY CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HELP INHIBIT IFR FOG FROM DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A LOW MOVING ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN COAST
TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF NW GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 25 KT...MAINLY
BEYOND 10 NM...THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE
BEHIND THE LOW THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
CHANCE FOR GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE NE GUSTS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE BELOW ADVISORY
WINDS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY ANOTHER
PERIOD WITH MARGINAL ADVISORY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...BEYOND 10 NM.

THE BUOYS SUGGEST SQUARE SEAS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS TO INCLUDE THE
INNER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STEEP AND
CHOPPY SEAS. WAVE PERIODS SHOULD INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE
WEST SWELL DECREASES IN HEIGHT. A W-NW 5 TO 7 FT SWELL SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 271757
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
957 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE
PASSES...BUT THE MAIN PASSES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY WET DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH MAY ALSO ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH
TO CAUSE A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...OR AT LEAST A FEW
HEAVIER SHOWERS WHICH MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL END BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD BACK FOR DRIER WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME
HEAVIER THAN OTHERS. ODOT WEBCAMS SHOW WET ROADS GOING OVER THE
PASSES...WITH A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON THE ROADSIDES. LOOKING AT
AREA SNOW REPORTS IT APPEARS MOST OF THE CASCADES ABOVE 4000 FT HAVE
RECEIVED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3-6 INCHES SO FAR. WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW
ADVISORY AS A COUPLE ADDITIONAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT OF
ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OFFSHORE BETWEEN ABOUT
TILLAMOOK AND FLORENCE...THEREFORE THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES COULD SEE
A BIT MORE ADDITIONAL SNOW THAN OUR MORE NORTHERN CASCADE ZONES.

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE...AS IT APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE. TWEAKED QPF/SNOW TOTALS A BIT TO MATCH THINKING
MENTIONED ABOVE.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 246 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT REACHED THE COAST JUST
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND
HEADED FOR THE CASCADES SHORTLY. THE FRONT IS BRINGING A QUICK BURST
OF PCPN WITH RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS PER HOUR.  SATELLITE AND
MODELS INDICATING A FOLLOWING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LEVELS BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
SLIDE BACK DOWN WITH THE INITIAL FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...REACHING AROUND 3500 TO
4000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 3000 FT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. AN ODOT CAM AT SANTIAM PASS SHOWED WET
ROADS AT 34 DEGREES AROUND 10 PM THU. AT 2 AM ITS 32 AND SNOWING
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD.  MODEL QPF HAS THE MAIN BATCH
OF PCPN OCCURRING WITH THE MORNING SYSTEMS. THIS WILL BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE CASCADES BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM THIS
MORNING.  ALSO THE LATEST MODEL QPF HAS MORE PCPN FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES THAN EARLIER FORECAST SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THAT AREA FOR TODAY.
PCPN WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE DONE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND/OR
THUNDER TODAY. BUT IF IT REMAINS TOO CLOUDY IT MAY BE MORE OF A
SMALL HAIL DAY THAN THUNDER.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE CASCADES.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER REX BLOCK SETTING
UP OVER THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER HOLDS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE N LATE IN THE DAY. WEISHAAR /MH

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF MVFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY. ANY CLOUD BREAKS WILL INTENSIFY
INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO SMALL HAIL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND A LOW SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AS WELL AS BRISK OFFSHORE WINDS MAY LIMIT RADIATION FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR-IFR
WITH FOG SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS AWAY FROM
THE GORGE AND SOUTH TOWARD EUGENE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH
SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIER IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE CIGS DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A STRAY LIGHTNING...BUT THAT
DEPENDS ON HOW MANY CLOUD BREAKS AND SURFACE HEATING THERE WILL
BE LATER THIS MORNING...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND HAIL. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS...THROUGH THE EVENING.
EAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN BELOW 12 KT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST WINDS...AND ANY CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HELP INHIBIT IFR FOG FROM DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A LOW MOVING ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN COAST
TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF NW GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 25 KT...MAINLY
BEYOND 10 NM...THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE
BEHIND THE LOW THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
CHANCE FOR GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE NE GUSTS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE BELOW ADVISORY
WINDS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY ANOTHER
PERIOD WITH MARGINAL ADVISORY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...BEYOND 10 NM.

THE BUOYS SUGGEST SQUARE SEAS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS TO INCLUDE THE
INNER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STEEP AND
CHOPPY SEAS. WAVE PERIODS SHOULD INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE
WEST SWELL DECREASES IN HEIGHT. A W-NW 5 TO 7 FT SWELL SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 271757
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
957 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE
PASSES...BUT THE MAIN PASSES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY WET DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH MAY ALSO ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH
TO CAUSE A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...OR AT LEAST A FEW
HEAVIER SHOWERS WHICH MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL END BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
THROUGH FORECAST TO DIG DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR AND POSSIBLY MORE VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD BACK FOR DRIER WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME
HEAVIER THAN OTHERS. ODOT WEBCAMS SHOW WET ROADS GOING OVER THE
PASSES...WITH A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON THE ROADSIDES. LOOKING AT
AREA SNOW REPORTS IT APPEARS MOST OF THE CASCADES ABOVE 4000 FT HAVE
RECEIVED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3-6 INCHES SO FAR. WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW
ADVISORY AS A COUPLE ADDITIONAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT OF
ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OFFSHORE BETWEEN ABOUT
TILLAMOOK AND FLORENCE...THEREFORE THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES COULD SEE
A BIT MORE ADDITIONAL SNOW THAN OUR MORE NORTHERN CASCADE ZONES.

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE...AS IT APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE. TWEAKED QPF/SNOW TOTALS A BIT TO MATCH THINKING
MENTIONED ABOVE.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 246 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT REACHED THE COAST JUST
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND
HEADED FOR THE CASCADES SHORTLY. THE FRONT IS BRINGING A QUICK BURST
OF PCPN WITH RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS PER HOUR.  SATELLITE AND
MODELS INDICATING A FOLLOWING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LEVELS BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
SLIDE BACK DOWN WITH THE INITIAL FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...REACHING AROUND 3500 TO
4000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 3000 FT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. AN ODOT CAM AT SANTIAM PASS SHOWED WET
ROADS AT 34 DEGREES AROUND 10 PM THU. AT 2 AM ITS 32 AND SNOWING
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD.  MODEL QPF HAS THE MAIN BATCH
OF PCPN OCCURRING WITH THE MORNING SYSTEMS. THIS WILL BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE CASCADES BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM THIS
MORNING.  ALSO THE LATEST MODEL QPF HAS MORE PCPN FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES THAN EARLIER FORECAST SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THAT AREA FOR TODAY.
PCPN WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE DONE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND/OR
THUNDER TODAY. BUT IF IT REMAINS TOO CLOUDY IT MAY BE MORE OF A
SMALL HAIL DAY THAN THUNDER.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE CASCADES.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER REX BLOCK SETTING
UP OVER THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER HOLDS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE N LATE IN THE DAY. WEISHAAR /MH

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF MVFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY. ANY CLOUD BREAKS WILL INTENSIFY
INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO SMALL HAIL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND A LOW SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AS WELL AS BRISK OFFSHORE WINDS MAY LIMIT RADIATION FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR-IFR
WITH FOG SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS AWAY FROM
THE GORGE AND SOUTH TOWARD EUGENE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH
SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIER IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE CIGS DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A STRAY LIGHTNING...BUT THAT
DEPENDS ON HOW MANY CLOUD BREAKS AND SURFACE HEATING THERE WILL
BE LATER THIS MORNING...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND HAIL. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS...THROUGH THE EVENING.
EAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN BELOW 12 KT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EAST WINDS...AND ANY CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HELP INHIBIT IFR FOG FROM DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A LOW MOVING ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN COAST
TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF NW GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 25 KT...MAINLY
BEYOND 10 NM...THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE
BEHIND THE LOW THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
CHANCE FOR GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE NE GUSTS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE BELOW ADVISORY
WINDS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY ANOTHER
PERIOD WITH MARGINAL ADVISORY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...BEYOND 10 NM.

THE BUOYS SUGGEST SQUARE SEAS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS TO INCLUDE THE
INNER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STEEP AND
CHOPPY SEAS. WAVE PERIODS SHOULD INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE
WEST SWELL DECREASES IN HEIGHT. A W-NW 5 TO 7 FT SWELL SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 271748
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
948 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY. THE MAIN
DEFORMATION PRECIP BAND WITH THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY RUNS FROM HARNEY
COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OREGON NORTH-NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL WASHINGTON.
THIS BAND WILL GRADUALLY PIVOT THROUGH THE DAY, ALIGNING ITSELF FROM
MALHEUR COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OREGON TO SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON BY
LATE AFTERNOON. NORTH AND EAST OF THIS BAND PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED
AND LIGHT, MEANWHILE WILL SEE SHOWERS WEST OF THE BAND. THUS HAVE
CHANGED WEATHER WORDING TO SHOWERS FOR MOST OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL OREGON FOR TODAY. ALSO MAY SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTHERN THREE-FOURTHS OF THE OREGON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER TO THIS ZONE. SNOW LEVELS WERE A BIT HIGHER
THIS MORNING AND HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW LEVELS THROUGH TODAY. LOCATIONS
ABOVE 4500 FEET AND UNDER THE MAIN PRECIP BAND WILL STILL SEE DECENT
SNOW AMOUNTS. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE ALL CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
INDICATE A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 130W
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS RUN SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING SOUTH
IN THIS NORTHERLY FLOW INTO WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AS DOES THE ECMWF,
BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLITUDE AND
THUS MORE PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT. AS
SUCH I SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON MONDAY THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION SO I
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND THUS KEEPS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD A
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN A DRYING TREND WHICH PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD KYKM AND KDLS CAUSING
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. THE RAIN MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH EAST LATER THIS
MORNING TO REACH KPDT...BUT KALW AND KPSC SHOULD REMAIN DRY. RAIN
WILL MOVE INTO KRDM AND KBDN AROUND 00Z...AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
LATER IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT MOST LOCATIONS
AND INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS. 82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  27  39  21 /  40  30  10   0
ALW  52  30  42  24 /  20  30  10   0
PSC  55  31  47  23 /  30  20  10   0
YKM  50  29  44  23 /  70  30  10   0
HRI  51  29  45  22 /  50  30  10   0
ELN  51  28  44  22 /  70  30  10   0
RDM  44  22  33  12 /  70  60  30   0
LGD  45  26  38  18 /  50  50  20   0
GCD  44  26  34   9 /  90  80  40   0
DLS  50  32  47  27 /  70  40  20   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 271748
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
948 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY. THE MAIN
DEFORMATION PRECIP BAND WITH THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY RUNS FROM HARNEY
COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OREGON NORTH-NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL WASHINGTON.
THIS BAND WILL GRADUALLY PIVOT THROUGH THE DAY, ALIGNING ITSELF FROM
MALHEUR COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OREGON TO SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON BY
LATE AFTERNOON. NORTH AND EAST OF THIS BAND PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED
AND LIGHT, MEANWHILE WILL SEE SHOWERS WEST OF THE BAND. THUS HAVE
CHANGED WEATHER WORDING TO SHOWERS FOR MOST OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL OREGON FOR TODAY. ALSO MAY SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTHERN THREE-FOURTHS OF THE OREGON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER TO THIS ZONE. SNOW LEVELS WERE A BIT HIGHER
THIS MORNING AND HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW LEVELS THROUGH TODAY. LOCATIONS
ABOVE 4500 FEET AND UNDER THE MAIN PRECIP BAND WILL STILL SEE DECENT
SNOW AMOUNTS. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE ALL CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
INDICATE A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 130W
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS RUN SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING SOUTH
IN THIS NORTHERLY FLOW INTO WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AS DOES THE ECMWF,
BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLITUDE AND
THUS MORE PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT. AS
SUCH I SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON MONDAY THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION SO I
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND THUS KEEPS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD A
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN A DRYING TREND WHICH PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD KYKM AND KDLS CAUSING
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. THE RAIN MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH EAST LATER THIS
MORNING TO REACH KPDT...BUT KALW AND KPSC SHOULD REMAIN DRY. RAIN
WILL MOVE INTO KRDM AND KBDN AROUND 00Z...AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
LATER IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT MOST LOCATIONS
AND INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS. 82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  27  39  21 /  40  30  10   0
ALW  52  30  42  24 /  20  30  10   0
PSC  55  31  47  23 /  30  20  10   0
YKM  50  29  44  23 /  70  30  10   0
HRI  51  29  45  22 /  50  30  10   0
ELN  51  28  44  22 /  70  30  10   0
RDM  44  22  33  12 /  70  60  30   0
LGD  45  26  38  18 /  50  50  20   0
GCD  44  26  34   9 /  90  80  40   0
DLS  50  32  47  27 /  70  40  20   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/82









000
FXUS66 KMFR 271642
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
842 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS NOT SHOWN MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY, LIKELY DUE TO OVER SHOOTING OF THE
ACTIVE PRECIPITATION, SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SIGNIFICANT
BANKING OF CLOUDS UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES
AND SISKIYOUS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING IS THEREFORE
TERRAIN DRIVEN, BUT AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES TODAY, SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE RESULTING
INSTABILITY TODAY COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND
PERHAPS A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO, WHICH WOULD NOT BE UNHEARD OF
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

OVERALL, THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK, WITH SNOW LEVELS
CURRENTLY AT ABOUT 4500 FT, AS SEEN ON AREA WEB CAMERAS. HAVE
MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY, JUST TO BRING
THINGS IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION,
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/12Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE
MAINLY A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN
OBSCURED AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4000 TO 5000 FT
MSL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE SNOW LEVEL DROPS TO
AROUND 3000 FT MSL BUT MAINLY IFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 5 AM PST, FRIDAY, 27 FEB, 2015...LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH AND REACH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE
WINDS IN THAT AREA WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE DURING LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A PEAK. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER WEAKER FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT IR IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
DROPPING QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. RIGHT NOW, IT`S CENTERED IN
WESTERN WASHINGTON, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON, IT WILL CARVE WESTWARD. A
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA TODAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXIST FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 4000 FEET THIS MORNING WITH
A DIURNAL RISE THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE LOWERING DOWN TO AROUND 3000
FEET SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS SUCH THAT MOST
OF THE SNOWFALL WILL BE ALONG THE CASCADES THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED ALONG HIGHWAY 140 DUE TO WARMING
ROADS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT, BUT THE TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHERN CAL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. ONE THING THAT WILL WARRANT CLOSE WATCHING WILL BE EAST
OF THE CASCADES, PARTICULARLY IN LAKE COUNTY. THE NAM SHOWS
PRECIPITATION WRAPPING BACK INTO THIS AREA TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR
ARRIVES AND SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO DROP. NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ORIENTATED TERRAIN COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES, THEN WINTER HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH SATURDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND USHER IN A COLDER, DRIER AIR MASS.
SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WE`LL SEE TEMPERATURES TAKE
A NOSEDIVE. DRY AND MILDER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM FROM THURSDAY`S AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

BPN/CC/MAP/DW/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 271642
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
842 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS NOT SHOWN MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY, LIKELY DUE TO OVER SHOOTING OF THE
ACTIVE PRECIPITATION, SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SIGNIFICANT
BANKING OF CLOUDS UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES
AND SISKIYOUS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING IS THEREFORE
TERRAIN DRIVEN, BUT AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES TODAY, SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE RESULTING
INSTABILITY TODAY COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND
PERHAPS A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO, WHICH WOULD NOT BE UNHEARD OF
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

OVERALL, THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK, WITH SNOW LEVELS
CURRENTLY AT ABOUT 4500 FT, AS SEEN ON AREA WEB CAMERAS. HAVE
MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY, JUST TO BRING
THINGS IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION,
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/12Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE
MAINLY A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN
OBSCURED AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4000 TO 5000 FT
MSL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE SNOW LEVEL DROPS TO
AROUND 3000 FT MSL BUT MAINLY IFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 5 AM PST, FRIDAY, 27 FEB, 2015...LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH AND REACH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE
WINDS IN THAT AREA WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE DURING LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A PEAK. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER WEAKER FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT IR IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
DROPPING QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. RIGHT NOW, IT`S CENTERED IN
WESTERN WASHINGTON, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON, IT WILL CARVE WESTWARD. A
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA TODAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXIST FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 4000 FEET THIS MORNING WITH
A DIURNAL RISE THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE LOWERING DOWN TO AROUND 3000
FEET SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS SUCH THAT MOST
OF THE SNOWFALL WILL BE ALONG THE CASCADES THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED ALONG HIGHWAY 140 DUE TO WARMING
ROADS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT, BUT THE TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHERN CAL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. ONE THING THAT WILL WARRANT CLOSE WATCHING WILL BE EAST
OF THE CASCADES, PARTICULARLY IN LAKE COUNTY. THE NAM SHOWS
PRECIPITATION WRAPPING BACK INTO THIS AREA TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR
ARRIVES AND SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO DROP. NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ORIENTATED TERRAIN COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES, THEN WINTER HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH SATURDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND USHER IN A COLDER, DRIER AIR MASS.
SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WE`LL SEE TEMPERATURES TAKE
A NOSEDIVE. DRY AND MILDER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM FROM THURSDAY`S AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

BPN/CC/MAP/DW/BTL



000
FXUS65 KBOI 271630
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
930 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SNOW HAS ACCUMULATED AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES NEAR
BURNS/OR AND THE ADVISORY IS WORKING OUT.  LATEST NAM/MET GUIDANCE
SHOWS A BREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN MORE SNOW LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY.  TOTAL COMBINED
SNOWFALL MAY EXCEED HEAVY SNOW CRITERIA FOR THE 24 HOURS...BUT
THE BREAK BETWEEN SNOWFALLS ALONG WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF ABOVE-
FREEZING TEMPS SUGGEST TWO SEPARATE ADVISORIES MAY BE BETTER THAN
A SINGLE HEAVY SNOW WARNING.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 8 AM PST SHOWS
MAXIMUM CLOUDS AND SNOW RIGHT OVER HARNEY COUNTY.  THE NEW 12Z
NAM SHOWS PCPN DECREASING IN EASTERN HARNEY COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
WEAK INSTABILITY...ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND NEAR
THE ID/NV BORDER.  NO FORECAST CHANGES ON THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
RIVER VALLEY...AND SCATTERED MVFR/LOCAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE VFR
EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS...
VARIABLE 5-10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...EAST 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT
MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASE TO ISOLATED MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. SUNDAY WILL BE VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED
UPPER LOW OVER NW WA WAS ALREADY SPREADING SNOW NEAR HARNEY-
DESCHUTES COUNTY BORDER PER TRIPCHECK WEBCAMS. MODERATE SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY /EXCEPT NEAR THE NV BORDER/ TODAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 4500 FT. MORE SNOW THERE IS
POSSIBLE AFTER TEMPS COOL OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PIVOTS
ACROSS SE OREGON TONIGHT. ON THE SOUTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE LOW
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED UNDER COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
WARMEST HIGHS SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW OF
BURNS TO S OF TWIN FALLS 18Z-06Z TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY RAIN AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-EMMETT-IDAHO CITY LINE
AS THE LOW EXPANDS OVER NV. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HARNEY COUNTY
SNOW ADVISORY PAST THIS AFTERNOON IF TEMPS LOOK COOL ENOUGH AND
THE LOW TRACK IS MAINTAINED ACROSS SE OREGON.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO CLEAR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.  CURRENT GUIDANCE
IS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE MOIST AND SLOWER
WITH THIS FEATURE. PRECIP COULD LAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR
THE ID/NV/UT BORDERS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING A RIDGE SETTING UP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN US...
WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AND KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ061.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 271630
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
930 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SNOW HAS ACCUMULATED AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES NEAR
BURNS/OR AND THE ADVISORY IS WORKING OUT.  LATEST NAM/MET GUIDANCE
SHOWS A BREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN MORE SNOW LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY.  TOTAL COMBINED
SNOWFALL MAY EXCEED HEAVY SNOW CRITERIA FOR THE 24 HOURS...BUT
THE BREAK BETWEEN SNOWFALLS ALONG WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF ABOVE-
FREEZING TEMPS SUGGEST TWO SEPARATE ADVISORIES MAY BE BETTER THAN
A SINGLE HEAVY SNOW WARNING.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 8 AM PST SHOWS
MAXIMUM CLOUDS AND SNOW RIGHT OVER HARNEY COUNTY.  THE NEW 12Z
NAM SHOWS PCPN DECREASING IN EASTERN HARNEY COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
WEAK INSTABILITY...ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND NEAR
THE ID/NV BORDER.  NO FORECAST CHANGES ON THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
RIVER VALLEY...AND SCATTERED MVFR/LOCAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE VFR
EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS...
VARIABLE 5-10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...EAST 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT
MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASE TO ISOLATED MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. SUNDAY WILL BE VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED
UPPER LOW OVER NW WA WAS ALREADY SPREADING SNOW NEAR HARNEY-
DESCHUTES COUNTY BORDER PER TRIPCHECK WEBCAMS. MODERATE SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY /EXCEPT NEAR THE NV BORDER/ TODAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 4500 FT. MORE SNOW THERE IS
POSSIBLE AFTER TEMPS COOL OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PIVOTS
ACROSS SE OREGON TONIGHT. ON THE SOUTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE LOW
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED UNDER COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
WARMEST HIGHS SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW OF
BURNS TO S OF TWIN FALLS 18Z-06Z TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY RAIN AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-EMMETT-IDAHO CITY LINE
AS THE LOW EXPANDS OVER NV. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HARNEY COUNTY
SNOW ADVISORY PAST THIS AFTERNOON IF TEMPS LOOK COOL ENOUGH AND
THE LOW TRACK IS MAINTAINED ACROSS SE OREGON.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO CLEAR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.  CURRENT GUIDANCE
IS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE MOIST AND SLOWER
WITH THIS FEATURE. PRECIP COULD LAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR
THE ID/NV/UT BORDERS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING A RIDGE SETTING UP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN US...
WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AND KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ061.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....EP




000
FXUS66 KPDT 271236 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
435 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OREGON. THIS
WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO MOSTLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE
CWA TODAY...AFFECTING CENTRAL OREGON...THE OREGON CASCADE EAST
SLOPES...THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS/BASIN AND THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS WHICH HAS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO AROUND 1000
TO 1500 FEET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO PRECIPITATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE PRIMARILY SNOW. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY
ACROSS THE CWA SO FAR. HOWEVER...A MORE STEADY AREA OF RAIN IS
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON WHICH WILL SPREAD
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO OREGON BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
COLDER AIR. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNING
BEGAN AT 06Z LAST EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS AND THE OREGON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. CENTRAL OREGON
INCLUDING REDMOND AND BEND WILL HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEGINNING AT 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AND LOW ELEVATION RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A COLD BUT DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A
MOSTLY CLEAR DAY WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
RUNS INDICATE A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
130W WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS RUN SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
SOUTH IN THIS NORTHERLY FLOW INTO WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AS DOES THE
ECMWF, BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
AMPLITUDE AND THUS MORE PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES
OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH I SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND WENT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH REMAINING
OVER THE REGION SO I KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND
THUS KEEPS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY
NIGHT ONWARD A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN A DRYING TREND WHICH
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD KYKM KDLS KRDM KBDN
OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 030-060. THE RAIN MAY SPREAD FAR
ENOUGH EAST LATER THIS MORNING TO REACH KPDT KPSC ALW. LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO RDM BDN FRIDAY EVENING WITH
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW BY AROUND 04Z/28TH. WINDS LESS THAN 10KT THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING FROM THE NORTH AT 10-20 KTS LATER TODAY.
POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  27  39  21 /  30  30  10   0
ALW  51  30  42  24 /  20  30  10   0
PSC  54  31  47  23 /  30  20  10   0
YKM  51  29  44  23 /  70  30  10   0
HRI  51  29  45  22 /  40  30  10   0
ELN  51  28  44  22 /  70  30  10   0
RDM  44  22  33  12 /  70  60  30   0
LGD  45  26  38  18 /  30  50  20   0
GCD  42  26  34   9 /  90  80  40   0
DLS  50  32  47  27 /  60  40  20   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/99/99






000
FXUS66 KPDT 271236 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
435 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OREGON. THIS
WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO MOSTLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE
CWA TODAY...AFFECTING CENTRAL OREGON...THE OREGON CASCADE EAST
SLOPES...THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS/BASIN AND THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS WHICH HAS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO AROUND 1000
TO 1500 FEET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO PRECIPITATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE PRIMARILY SNOW. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY
ACROSS THE CWA SO FAR. HOWEVER...A MORE STEADY AREA OF RAIN IS
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON WHICH WILL SPREAD
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO OREGON BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
COLDER AIR. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNING
BEGAN AT 06Z LAST EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS AND THE OREGON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. CENTRAL OREGON
INCLUDING REDMOND AND BEND WILL HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEGINNING AT 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AND LOW ELEVATION RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A COLD BUT DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A
MOSTLY CLEAR DAY WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
RUNS INDICATE A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
130W WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS RUN SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
SOUTH IN THIS NORTHERLY FLOW INTO WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AS DOES THE
ECMWF, BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
AMPLITUDE AND THUS MORE PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES
OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH I SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND WENT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH REMAINING
OVER THE REGION SO I KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND
THUS KEEPS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY
NIGHT ONWARD A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN A DRYING TREND WHICH
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD KYKM KDLS KRDM KBDN
OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 030-060. THE RAIN MAY SPREAD FAR
ENOUGH EAST LATER THIS MORNING TO REACH KPDT KPSC ALW. LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO RDM BDN FRIDAY EVENING WITH
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW BY AROUND 04Z/28TH. WINDS LESS THAN 10KT THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING FROM THE NORTH AT 10-20 KTS LATER TODAY.
POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  27  39  21 /  30  30  10   0
ALW  51  30  42  24 /  20  30  10   0
PSC  54  31  47  23 /  30  20  10   0
YKM  51  29  44  23 /  70  30  10   0
HRI  51  29  45  22 /  40  30  10   0
ELN  51  28  44  22 /  70  30  10   0
RDM  44  22  33  12 /  70  60  30   0
LGD  45  26  38  18 /  30  50  20   0
GCD  42  26  34   9 /  90  80  40   0
DLS  50  32  47  27 /  60  40  20   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/99/99







000
FXUS66 KMFR 271103
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
303 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT IR IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
DROPPING QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. RIGHT NOW, IT`S CENTERED IN
WESTERN WASHINGTON, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON, IT WILL CARVE WESTWARD. A
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA TODAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXIST FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 4000 FEET THIS MORNING WITH
A DIURNAL RISE THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE LOWERING DOWN TO AROUND 3000
FEET SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS SUCH THAT MOST
OF THE SNOWFALL WILL BE ALONG THE CASCADES THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED ALONG HIGHWAY 140 DUE TO WARMING
ROADS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT, BUT THE TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHERN CAL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. ONE THING THAT WILL WARRANT CLOSE WATCHING WILL BE EAST
OF THE CASCADES, PARTICULARLY IN LAKE COUNTY. THE NAM SHOWS
PRECIPITATION WRAPPING BACK INTO THIS AREA TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR
ARRIVES AND SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO DROP. NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ORIENTATED TERRAIN COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES, THEN WINTER HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH SATURDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND USHER IN A COLDER, DRIER AIR MASS.
SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WE`LL SEE TEMPERATURES TAKE
A NOSEDIVE. DRY AND MILDER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY. -PETRUCELLI


LONG TERM FROM THURSDAY`S AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...MVFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON.  INLAND FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...IMPROVING
SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 4000 TO 5000 FEET
FRIDAY MORNING. SPILDE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST, THURSDAY, 26 FEB, 2015... WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.

MSC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 271103
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
303 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT IR IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
DROPPING QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. RIGHT NOW, IT`S CENTERED IN
WESTERN WASHINGTON, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON, IT WILL CARVE WESTWARD. A
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA TODAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXIST FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 4000 FEET THIS MORNING WITH
A DIURNAL RISE THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE LOWERING DOWN TO AROUND 3000
FEET SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS SUCH THAT MOST
OF THE SNOWFALL WILL BE ALONG THE CASCADES THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED ALONG HIGHWAY 140 DUE TO WARMING
ROADS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT, BUT THE TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHERN CAL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. ONE THING THAT WILL WARRANT CLOSE WATCHING WILL BE EAST
OF THE CASCADES, PARTICULARLY IN LAKE COUNTY. THE NAM SHOWS
PRECIPITATION WRAPPING BACK INTO THIS AREA TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR
ARRIVES AND SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO DROP. NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ORIENTATED TERRAIN COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES, THEN WINTER HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH SATURDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND USHER IN A COLDER, DRIER AIR MASS.
SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WE`LL SEE TEMPERATURES TAKE
A NOSEDIVE. DRY AND MILDER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY. -PETRUCELLI


LONG TERM FROM THURSDAY`S AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...MVFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON.  INLAND FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...IMPROVING
SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 4000 TO 5000 FEET
FRIDAY MORNING. SPILDE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST, THURSDAY, 26 FEB, 2015... WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.

MSC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KPDT 271101
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OREGON. THIS
WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO MOSTLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE
CWA TODAY...AFFECTING CENTRAL OREGON...THE OREGON CASCADE EAST
SLOPES...THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS/BASIN AND THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS WHICH HAS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO AROUND 1000
TO 1500 FEET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO PRECIPITATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE PRIMARILY SNOW. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY
ACROSS THE CWA SO FAR. HOWEVER...A MORE STEADY AREA OF RAIN IS
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON WHICH WILL SPREAD
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO OREGON BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
COLDER AIR. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNING
BEGAN AT 06Z LAST EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS AND THE OREGON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. CENTRAL OREGON
INCLUDING REDMOND AND BEND WILL HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEGINNING AT 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AND LOW ELEVATION RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A COLD BUT DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A
MOSTLY CLEAR DAY WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
RUNS INDICATE A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
130W WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS RUN SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
SOUTH IN THIS NORTHERLY FLOW INTO WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AS DOES THE
ECMWF, BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
AMPLITUDE AND THUS MORE PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES
OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH I SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND WENT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH REMAINING
OVER THE REGION SO I KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND
THUS KEEPS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY
NIGHT ONWARD A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN A DRYING TREND WHICH
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD YKM
DLS RDM BDN TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 030-060. THE RAIN MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING TO INCLUDE PSC PDT ALW.
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO RDM BDN FRIDAY
EVENING. WINDS LESS THAN 10KT TONIGHT THEN INCREASING FROM THE NORTH
AT 10-20KT LATER FRIDAY. 94

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  27  39  21 /  30  30  10   0
ALW  51  30  42  24 /  20  30  10   0
PSC  54  31  47  23 /  30  20  10   0
YKM  51  29  44  23 /  70  30  10   0
HRI  51  29  45  22 /  40  30  10   0
ELN  51  28  44  22 /  70  30  10   0
RDM  44  22  33  12 /  70  60  30   0
LGD  45  26  38  18 /  30  50  20   0
GCD  42  26  34   9 /  90  80  40   0
DLS  50  32  47  27 /  60  40  20   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/99/99











000
FXUS66 KPDT 271101
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OREGON. THIS
WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO MOSTLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE
CWA TODAY...AFFECTING CENTRAL OREGON...THE OREGON CASCADE EAST
SLOPES...THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS/BASIN AND THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS WHICH HAS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO AROUND 1000
TO 1500 FEET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO PRECIPITATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE PRIMARILY SNOW. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY
ACROSS THE CWA SO FAR. HOWEVER...A MORE STEADY AREA OF RAIN IS
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON WHICH WILL SPREAD
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO OREGON BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
COLDER AIR. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNING
BEGAN AT 06Z LAST EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS AND THE OREGON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. CENTRAL OREGON
INCLUDING REDMOND AND BEND WILL HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEGINNING AT 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AND LOW ELEVATION RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A COLD BUT DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A
MOSTLY CLEAR DAY WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
RUNS INDICATE A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
130W WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS RUN SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
SOUTH IN THIS NORTHERLY FLOW INTO WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AS DOES THE
ECMWF, BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
AMPLITUDE AND THUS MORE PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES
OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH I SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND WENT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH REMAINING
OVER THE REGION SO I KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND
THUS KEEPS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY
NIGHT ONWARD A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN A DRYING TREND WHICH
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD YKM
DLS RDM BDN TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 030-060. THE RAIN MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING TO INCLUDE PSC PDT ALW.
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO RDM BDN FRIDAY
EVENING. WINDS LESS THAN 10KT TONIGHT THEN INCREASING FROM THE NORTH
AT 10-20KT LATER FRIDAY. 94

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  27  39  21 /  30  30  10   0
ALW  51  30  42  24 /  20  30  10   0
PSC  54  31  47  23 /  30  20  10   0
YKM  51  29  44  23 /  70  30  10   0
HRI  51  29  45  22 /  40  30  10   0
ELN  51  28  44  22 /  70  30  10   0
RDM  44  22  33  12 /  70  60  30   0
LGD  45  26  38  18 /  30  50  20   0
GCD  42  26  34   9 /  90  80  40   0
DLS  50  32  47  27 /  60  40  20   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/99/99












000
FXUS66 KPQR 271053
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
246 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES TODAY.
COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL OR
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL END BY SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT REACHED THE COAST JUST
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND
HEADED FOR THE CASCADES SHORTLY. THE FRONT IS BRINGING A QUICK BURST
OF PCPN WITH RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS PER HOUR.  SATELLITE AND
MODELS INDICATING A FOLLOWING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LEVELS BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
SLIDE BACK DOWN WITH THE INITIAL FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...REACHING AROUND 3500 TO
4000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 3000 FT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. AN ODOT CAM AT SANTIAM PASS SHOWED WET
ROADS AT 34 DEGREES AROUND 10 PM THU. AT 2 AM ITS 32 AND SNOWING
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD.  MODEL QPF HAS THE MAIN BATCH
OF PCPN OCCURRING WITH THE MORNING SYSTEMS. THIS WILL BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE CASCADES BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM THIS
MORNING.  ALSO THE LATEST MODEL QPF HAS MORE PCPN FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES THAN EARLIER FORECAST SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THAT AREA FOR TODAY.
PCPN WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE DONE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND/OR
THUNDER TODAY. BUT IF IT REMAINS TOO CLOUDY IT MAY BE MORE OF A
SMALL HAIL DAY THAN THUNDER.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE CASCADES.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER REX BLOCK SETTING
UP OVER THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER HOLDS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE N LATE IN THE DAY. WEISHAAR /MH

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS BY
SUNRISE WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOW VISIBILITIES AND A
DECENT WIND SHIFT. THUS EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TODAY...AND THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP
MVFR OR LOW END VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SOME SMALL
HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM...BUT ANY THUNDER COULD BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW SOLID THE CLOUDS STAY TODAY. THE LOW STARTS TO
MOVE SOUTH LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE
DECREASING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE
FLOW. ANY FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS. BEST CHANCE
WILL BE AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND SOUTH TOWARD EUGENE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...LIKELY MOVING PAST THE
AIRPORT BY 12Z. OTHERWISE MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN
ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL HAIL LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AS WELL...
THOUGH CONCERNED THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS A BIT TOO
SOLID...INHIBITING DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH SOME EAST WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE AIRPORT BY EARLY SATURDAY. PT
&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WE HAVE SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN
ITS WAKE...INCLUDING THE INNER WATERS. AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TODAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THE WINDS
IN THE INNER WATERS MAY EASE BUT THE OUTER WATERS MAY KEEP GOING
THROUGH TODAY. THUS WILL JUST KEEP THE INNER WATERS ADVISORY
THROUGH PART OF THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
WATERS TONIGHT AND REACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY THEN NORTHEASTERLY...AND
STILL BE BRISK. IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE MORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NORTHEAST WINDS AND EAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL GAPS ON
SATURDAY...DECREASING FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHTER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TO 9 OR
POSSIBLY 10 FEET. PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TODAY FROM 10 OR 11
SECONDS TO 8 OR 9 SECONDS...CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS. HAVE
THEREFORE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS
WELL. SEAS DECREASE FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SEAS COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT AGAIN FROM THE INCREASING
NORTHERLIES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES
     ABOVE 5000 FEET.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES ABOVE 5000 FEET.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS
     MORNING TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 271053
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
246 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES TODAY.
COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL OR
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL END BY SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT REACHED THE COAST JUST
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND
HEADED FOR THE CASCADES SHORTLY. THE FRONT IS BRINGING A QUICK BURST
OF PCPN WITH RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS PER HOUR.  SATELLITE AND
MODELS INDICATING A FOLLOWING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LEVELS BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
SLIDE BACK DOWN WITH THE INITIAL FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...REACHING AROUND 3500 TO
4000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 3000 FT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. AN ODOT CAM AT SANTIAM PASS SHOWED WET
ROADS AT 34 DEGREES AROUND 10 PM THU. AT 2 AM ITS 32 AND SNOWING
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD.  MODEL QPF HAS THE MAIN BATCH
OF PCPN OCCURRING WITH THE MORNING SYSTEMS. THIS WILL BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE CASCADES BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM THIS
MORNING.  ALSO THE LATEST MODEL QPF HAS MORE PCPN FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES THAN EARLIER FORECAST SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THAT AREA FOR TODAY.
PCPN WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE DONE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND/OR
THUNDER TODAY. BUT IF IT REMAINS TOO CLOUDY IT MAY BE MORE OF A
SMALL HAIL DAY THAN THUNDER.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE CASCADES.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER REX BLOCK SETTING
UP OVER THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER HOLDS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE N LATE IN THE DAY. WEISHAAR /MH

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS BY
SUNRISE WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOW VISIBILITIES AND A
DECENT WIND SHIFT. THUS EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TODAY...AND THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP
MVFR OR LOW END VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SOME SMALL
HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM...BUT ANY THUNDER COULD BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW SOLID THE CLOUDS STAY TODAY. THE LOW STARTS TO
MOVE SOUTH LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE
DECREASING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE
FLOW. ANY FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS. BEST CHANCE
WILL BE AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND SOUTH TOWARD EUGENE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...LIKELY MOVING PAST THE
AIRPORT BY 12Z. OTHERWISE MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN
ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL HAIL LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AS WELL...
THOUGH CONCERNED THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS A BIT TOO
SOLID...INHIBITING DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH SOME EAST WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE AIRPORT BY EARLY SATURDAY. PT
&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WE HAVE SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN
ITS WAKE...INCLUDING THE INNER WATERS. AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TODAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THE WINDS
IN THE INNER WATERS MAY EASE BUT THE OUTER WATERS MAY KEEP GOING
THROUGH TODAY. THUS WILL JUST KEEP THE INNER WATERS ADVISORY
THROUGH PART OF THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
WATERS TONIGHT AND REACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY THEN NORTHEASTERLY...AND
STILL BE BRISK. IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE MORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NORTHEAST WINDS AND EAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL GAPS ON
SATURDAY...DECREASING FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHTER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TO 9 OR
POSSIBLY 10 FEET. PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TODAY FROM 10 OR 11
SECONDS TO 8 OR 9 SECONDS...CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS. HAVE
THEREFORE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS
WELL. SEAS DECREASE FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SEAS COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT AGAIN FROM THE INCREASING
NORTHERLIES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES
     ABOVE 5000 FEET.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES ABOVE 5000 FEET.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS
     MORNING TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 271053
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
246 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES TODAY.
COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL OR
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL END BY SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT REACHED THE COAST JUST
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND
HEADED FOR THE CASCADES SHORTLY. THE FRONT IS BRINGING A QUICK BURST
OF PCPN WITH RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS PER HOUR.  SATELLITE AND
MODELS INDICATING A FOLLOWING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LEVELS BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
SLIDE BACK DOWN WITH THE INITIAL FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...REACHING AROUND 3500 TO
4000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 3000 FT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. AN ODOT CAM AT SANTIAM PASS SHOWED WET
ROADS AT 34 DEGREES AROUND 10 PM THU. AT 2 AM ITS 32 AND SNOWING
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD.  MODEL QPF HAS THE MAIN BATCH
OF PCPN OCCURRING WITH THE MORNING SYSTEMS. THIS WILL BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE CASCADES BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM THIS
MORNING.  ALSO THE LATEST MODEL QPF HAS MORE PCPN FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES THAN EARLIER FORECAST SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THAT AREA FOR TODAY.
PCPN WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE DONE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND/OR
THUNDER TODAY. BUT IF IT REMAINS TOO CLOUDY IT MAY BE MORE OF A
SMALL HAIL DAY THAN THUNDER.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE CASCADES.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER REX BLOCK SETTING
UP OVER THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER HOLDS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE N LATE IN THE DAY. WEISHAAR /MH

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS BY
SUNRISE WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOW VISIBILITIES AND A
DECENT WIND SHIFT. THUS EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TODAY...AND THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP
MVFR OR LOW END VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SOME SMALL
HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM...BUT ANY THUNDER COULD BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW SOLID THE CLOUDS STAY TODAY. THE LOW STARTS TO
MOVE SOUTH LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE
DECREASING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE
FLOW. ANY FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS. BEST CHANCE
WILL BE AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND SOUTH TOWARD EUGENE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...LIKELY MOVING PAST THE
AIRPORT BY 12Z. OTHERWISE MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN
ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL HAIL LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AS WELL...
THOUGH CONCERNED THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS A BIT TOO
SOLID...INHIBITING DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH SOME EAST WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE AIRPORT BY EARLY SATURDAY. PT
&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WE HAVE SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN
ITS WAKE...INCLUDING THE INNER WATERS. AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TODAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THE WINDS
IN THE INNER WATERS MAY EASE BUT THE OUTER WATERS MAY KEEP GOING
THROUGH TODAY. THUS WILL JUST KEEP THE INNER WATERS ADVISORY
THROUGH PART OF THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
WATERS TONIGHT AND REACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY THEN NORTHEASTERLY...AND
STILL BE BRISK. IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE MORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NORTHEAST WINDS AND EAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL GAPS ON
SATURDAY...DECREASING FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHTER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TO 9 OR
POSSIBLY 10 FEET. PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TODAY FROM 10 OR 11
SECONDS TO 8 OR 9 SECONDS...CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS. HAVE
THEREFORE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS
WELL. SEAS DECREASE FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SEAS COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT AGAIN FROM THE INCREASING
NORTHERLIES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES
     ABOVE 5000 FEET.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES ABOVE 5000 FEET.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS
     MORNING TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 271032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED
UPPER LOW OVER NW WA WAS ALREADY SPREADING SNOW NEAR HARNEY-
DESCHTES COUNTY BORDER PER TRIPCHECK WEBCAMS. MODERATE SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY /EXCEPT NEAR THE NV BORDER/ TODAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 4500 FT. MORE SNOW THERE IS
POSSIBLE AFTER TEMPS COOL OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PIVOTS
ACROSS SE OREGON TONIGHT. ON THE SOUTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE LOW
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED UNDER COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
WARMEST HIGHS SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW OF
BURNS TO S OF TWIN FALLS 18Z-06Z TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY RAIN AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-EMMETT-IDAHO CITY LINE
AS THE LOW EXPANDS OVER NV. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HARNEY COUNTY
SNOW ADVISORY PAST THIS AFTERNOON IF TEMPS LOOK COOL ENOUGH AND
THE LOW TRACK IS MAINTAINED ACROSS SE OREGON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO CLEAR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE
MOIST AND SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. PRECIP COULD LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE ID/NV/UT BORDERS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A RIDGE SETTING UP
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN US...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY MAINLY IN SE OREGON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SNOW LEVELS 3500-4000 FT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT AFTER 28/06Z WINDS
IN THE MAGIC VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ENE AT 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WNW 10-15 KTS...TURNING SSW
AFTER 27/21Z. THEN...AFTER 28/03Z...WINDS ALOFT IN IDAHO ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST AT 10-20 KTS AND NW 10-15KTS IN SE OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ061.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 271032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED
UPPER LOW OVER NW WA WAS ALREADY SPREADING SNOW NEAR HARNEY-
DESCHTES COUNTY BORDER PER TRIPCHECK WEBCAMS. MODERATE SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY /EXCEPT NEAR THE NV BORDER/ TODAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 4500 FT. MORE SNOW THERE IS
POSSIBLE AFTER TEMPS COOL OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PIVOTS
ACROSS SE OREGON TONIGHT. ON THE SOUTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE LOW
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED UNDER COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
WARMEST HIGHS SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW OF
BURNS TO S OF TWIN FALLS 18Z-06Z TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY RAIN AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-EMMETT-IDAHO CITY LINE
AS THE LOW EXPANDS OVER NV. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HARNEY COUNTY
SNOW ADVISORY PAST THIS AFTERNOON IF TEMPS LOOK COOL ENOUGH AND
THE LOW TRACK IS MAINTAINED ACROSS SE OREGON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO CLEAR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE
MOIST AND SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. PRECIP COULD LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE ID/NV/UT BORDERS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A RIDGE SETTING UP
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN US...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY MAINLY IN SE OREGON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SNOW LEVELS 3500-4000 FT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT AFTER 28/06Z WINDS
IN THE MAGIC VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ENE AT 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WNW 10-15 KTS...TURNING SSW
AFTER 27/21Z. THEN...AFTER 28/03Z...WINDS ALOFT IN IDAHO ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST AT 10-20 KTS AND NW 10-15KTS IN SE OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ061.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 271032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED
UPPER LOW OVER NW WA WAS ALREADY SPREADING SNOW NEAR HARNEY-
DESCHTES COUNTY BORDER PER TRIPCHECK WEBCAMS. MODERATE SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY /EXCEPT NEAR THE NV BORDER/ TODAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 4500 FT. MORE SNOW THERE IS
POSSIBLE AFTER TEMPS COOL OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PIVOTS
ACROSS SE OREGON TONIGHT. ON THE SOUTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE LOW
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED UNDER COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
WARMEST HIGHS SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW OF
BURNS TO S OF TWIN FALLS 18Z-06Z TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY RAIN AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-EMMETT-IDAHO CITY LINE
AS THE LOW EXPANDS OVER NV. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HARNEY COUNTY
SNOW ADVISORY PAST THIS AFTERNOON IF TEMPS LOOK COOL ENOUGH AND
THE LOW TRACK IS MAINTAINED ACROSS SE OREGON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO CLEAR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE
MOIST AND SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. PRECIP COULD LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE ID/NV/UT BORDERS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A RIDGE SETTING UP
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN US...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY MAINLY IN SE OREGON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SNOW LEVELS 3500-4000 FT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT AFTER 28/06Z WINDS
IN THE MAGIC VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ENE AT 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WNW 10-15 KTS...TURNING SSW
AFTER 27/21Z. THEN...AFTER 28/03Z...WINDS ALOFT IN IDAHO ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST AT 10-20 KTS AND NW 10-15KTS IN SE OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ061.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 271032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED
UPPER LOW OVER NW WA WAS ALREADY SPREADING SNOW NEAR HARNEY-
DESCHTES COUNTY BORDER PER TRIPCHECK WEBCAMS. MODERATE SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY /EXCEPT NEAR THE NV BORDER/ TODAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 4500 FT. MORE SNOW THERE IS
POSSIBLE AFTER TEMPS COOL OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PIVOTS
ACROSS SE OREGON TONIGHT. ON THE SOUTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE LOW
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED UNDER COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
WARMEST HIGHS SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW OF
BURNS TO S OF TWIN FALLS 18Z-06Z TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY RAIN AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-EMMETT-IDAHO CITY LINE
AS THE LOW EXPANDS OVER NV. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HARNEY COUNTY
SNOW ADVISORY PAST THIS AFTERNOON IF TEMPS LOOK COOL ENOUGH AND
THE LOW TRACK IS MAINTAINED ACROSS SE OREGON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO CLEAR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE
MOIST AND SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. PRECIP COULD LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE ID/NV/UT BORDERS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A RIDGE SETTING UP
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN US...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY MAINLY IN SE OREGON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SNOW LEVELS 3500-4000 FT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT AFTER 28/06Z WINDS
IN THE MAGIC VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ENE AT 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WNW 10-15 KTS...TURNING SSW
AFTER 27/21Z. THEN...AFTER 28/03Z...WINDS ALOFT IN IDAHO ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST AT 10-20 KTS AND NW 10-15KTS IN SE OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ061.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 271032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED
UPPER LOW OVER NW WA WAS ALREADY SPREADING SNOW NEAR HARNEY-
DESCHTES COUNTY BORDER PER TRIPCHECK WEBCAMS. MODERATE SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY /EXCEPT NEAR THE NV BORDER/ TODAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 4500 FT. MORE SNOW THERE IS
POSSIBLE AFTER TEMPS COOL OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PIVOTS
ACROSS SE OREGON TONIGHT. ON THE SOUTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE LOW
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED UNDER COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
WARMEST HIGHS SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW OF
BURNS TO S OF TWIN FALLS 18Z-06Z TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY RAIN AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-EMMETT-IDAHO CITY LINE
AS THE LOW EXPANDS OVER NV. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HARNEY COUNTY
SNOW ADVISORY PAST THIS AFTERNOON IF TEMPS LOOK COOL ENOUGH AND
THE LOW TRACK IS MAINTAINED ACROSS SE OREGON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO CLEAR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE
MOIST AND SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. PRECIP COULD LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE ID/NV/UT BORDERS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A RIDGE SETTING UP
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN US...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY MAINLY IN SE OREGON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SNOW LEVELS 3500-4000 FT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT AFTER 28/06Z WINDS
IN THE MAGIC VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ENE AT 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WNW 10-15 KTS...TURNING SSW
AFTER 27/21Z. THEN...AFTER 28/03Z...WINDS ALOFT IN IDAHO ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST AT 10-20 KTS AND NW 10-15KTS IN SE OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ061.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 271032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED
UPPER LOW OVER NW WA WAS ALREADY SPREADING SNOW NEAR HARNEY-
DESCHTES COUNTY BORDER PER TRIPCHECK WEBCAMS. MODERATE SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY /EXCEPT NEAR THE NV BORDER/ TODAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 4500 FT. MORE SNOW THERE IS
POSSIBLE AFTER TEMPS COOL OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PIVOTS
ACROSS SE OREGON TONIGHT. ON THE SOUTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE LOW
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED UNDER COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
WARMEST HIGHS SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW OF
BURNS TO S OF TWIN FALLS 18Z-06Z TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY RAIN AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-EMMETT-IDAHO CITY LINE
AS THE LOW EXPANDS OVER NV. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HARNEY COUNTY
SNOW ADVISORY PAST THIS AFTERNOON IF TEMPS LOOK COOL ENOUGH AND
THE LOW TRACK IS MAINTAINED ACROSS SE OREGON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO CLEAR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE
MOIST AND SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. PRECIP COULD LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE ID/NV/UT BORDERS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A RIDGE SETTING UP
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN US...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY MAINLY IN SE OREGON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SNOW LEVELS 3500-4000 FT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT AFTER 28/06Z WINDS
IN THE MAGIC VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ENE AT 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WNW 10-15 KTS...TURNING SSW
AFTER 27/21Z. THEN...AFTER 28/03Z...WINDS ALOFT IN IDAHO ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST AT 10-20 KTS AND NW 10-15KTS IN SE OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ061.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 271032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED
UPPER LOW OVER NW WA WAS ALREADY SPREADING SNOW NEAR HARNEY-
DESCHTES COUNTY BORDER PER TRIPCHECK WEBCAMS. MODERATE SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY /EXCEPT NEAR THE NV BORDER/ TODAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 4500 FT. MORE SNOW THERE IS
POSSIBLE AFTER TEMPS COOL OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PIVOTS
ACROSS SE OREGON TONIGHT. ON THE SOUTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE LOW
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED UNDER COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
WARMEST HIGHS SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW OF
BURNS TO S OF TWIN FALLS 18Z-06Z TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY RAIN AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-EMMETT-IDAHO CITY LINE
AS THE LOW EXPANDS OVER NV. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HARNEY COUNTY
SNOW ADVISORY PAST THIS AFTERNOON IF TEMPS LOOK COOL ENOUGH AND
THE LOW TRACK IS MAINTAINED ACROSS SE OREGON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO CLEAR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE
MOIST AND SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. PRECIP COULD LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE ID/NV/UT BORDERS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A RIDGE SETTING UP
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN US...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY MAINLY IN SE OREGON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SNOW LEVELS 3500-4000 FT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT AFTER 28/06Z WINDS
IN THE MAGIC VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ENE AT 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WNW 10-15 KTS...TURNING SSW
AFTER 27/21Z. THEN...AFTER 28/03Z...WINDS ALOFT IN IDAHO ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST AT 10-20 KTS AND NW 10-15KTS IN SE OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ061.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 271032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED
UPPER LOW OVER NW WA WAS ALREADY SPREADING SNOW NEAR HARNEY-
DESCHTES COUNTY BORDER PER TRIPCHECK WEBCAMS. MODERATE SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY /EXCEPT NEAR THE NV BORDER/ TODAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 4500 FT. MORE SNOW THERE IS
POSSIBLE AFTER TEMPS COOL OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PIVOTS
ACROSS SE OREGON TONIGHT. ON THE SOUTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE LOW
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED UNDER COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
WARMEST HIGHS SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW OF
BURNS TO S OF TWIN FALLS 18Z-06Z TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY RAIN AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-EMMETT-IDAHO CITY LINE
AS THE LOW EXPANDS OVER NV. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HARNEY COUNTY
SNOW ADVISORY PAST THIS AFTERNOON IF TEMPS LOOK COOL ENOUGH AND
THE LOW TRACK IS MAINTAINED ACROSS SE OREGON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO CLEAR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE
MOIST AND SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. PRECIP COULD LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE ID/NV/UT BORDERS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A RIDGE SETTING UP
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN US...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY MAINLY IN SE OREGON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SNOW LEVELS 3500-4000 FT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT AFTER 28/06Z WINDS
IN THE MAGIC VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ENE AT 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WNW 10-15 KTS...TURNING SSW
AFTER 27/21Z. THEN...AFTER 28/03Z...WINDS ALOFT IN IDAHO ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST AT 10-20 KTS AND NW 10-15KTS IN SE OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ061.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS66 KPDT 270553
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
955 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR VANCOUVER
ISLAND SHOWING GOOD ENHANCEMENT ON IR SATELLITE THE PAST FEW HOURS.
AS THIS LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT EXPECT CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES INTO CENTRAL OREGON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SNOW LEVEL AROUND 4000 FEET TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN LOWERING FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. MUCH COLDER SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. BREEZY NORTH WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. 94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD YKM DLS RDM BDN TONIGHT
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 030-060. THE RAIN MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH
EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING TO INCLUDE PSC PDT ALW. LOWERING SNOW LEVELS
COULD BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO RDM BDN FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LESS
THAN 10KT TONIGHT THEN INCREASING FROM THE NORTH AT 10-20KT LATER
FRIDAY. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 344 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  49  28  43 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  52  31  46 /  30  20  20  10
PSC  37  55  32  50 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  35  52  30  47 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  52  30  48 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  36  52  29  47 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  32  45  23  36 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  30  46  27  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  29  43  27  37 /  50  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/







000
FXUS66 KPDT 270553
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
955 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR VANCOUVER
ISLAND SHOWING GOOD ENHANCEMENT ON IR SATELLITE THE PAST FEW HOURS.
AS THIS LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT EXPECT CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES INTO CENTRAL OREGON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SNOW LEVEL AROUND 4000 FEET TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN LOWERING FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. MUCH COLDER SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. BREEZY NORTH WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. 94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD YKM DLS RDM BDN TONIGHT
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 030-060. THE RAIN MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH
EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING TO INCLUDE PSC PDT ALW. LOWERING SNOW LEVELS
COULD BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO RDM BDN FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LESS
THAN 10KT TONIGHT THEN INCREASING FROM THE NORTH AT 10-20KT LATER
FRIDAY. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 344 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  49  28  43 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  52  31  46 /  30  20  20  10
PSC  37  55  32  50 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  35  52  30  47 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  52  30  48 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  36  52  29  47 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  32  45  23  36 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  30  46  27  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  29  43  27  37 /  50  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/






000
FXUS66 KPQR 270526
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
924 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AND BE NEAR
OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL OR THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL END
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
CLOSED OR NEARLY CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SRN VANCOUVER ISLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE 04Z. MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE. THE 00Z NAM
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTH AND LOCATION FOR
06Z. EARLIER CHECK OF CASCADE WEB CAMS INDICATED A GENERAL SNOW LEVEL
HOVERING JUST UNDER 5000 FEET. HOODOO SKI PARKING LOT...AT 4700
FT...WAS WET AT 02Z...BUT THE CAMERA SHOWED SOME WET FLAKES FALLING.
THE STICKING SNOW LINE LOOKED TO BE A FEW HUNDRED FEET HIGHER.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT...AND THEN DOWN THE OREGON COAST FRI. A NWLY
UPPER JET WILL HELP TO ENHANCE LIFT AND DYNAMICS AS THE LOW SAGS
SOUTHWARD. LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY AS A RESULT.  SNOW
LEVELS WILL START AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 5000 FEET...AND LOWER LATE
TONIGHT TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

GFS AND NAM DIFFER ON THE OVERALL QPF...BUT BOTH SEEM TO AGREE THAT
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z FRI. TOTAL
QPF LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE OREGON
CASCADES ABOVE 5000 FEET. AREAS FROM 4000 TO 5000 FEET ARE LIKELY TO
GET UP TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FRI FOR A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND/OR THUNDER.
BELIEVE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS
VERSUS THUNDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT AND BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOW FALL RATES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS TIME...BUT 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THOSE PLANNING
TO HEAD TO THE MOUNTAINS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE RECREATIONAL
ASPECTS OF THIS NEW SNOW SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW
COVERED ROADS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE CASCADES.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY. MODELS ARE IN GREATAGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER REX BLOCK SETTING
UP OVER THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER HOLDS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE N LATE IN THE DAY. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED INTO SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON TONIGHT...KEEPING CIGS AND VIS ALONG THE COAST PRIMARILY
MVFR AND INLAND SITES A MIX OF VFR/MVFR. EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO
DROP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO IFR ALONG THE COAST...WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR FRIDAY MORNING AROUND 18Z. CIGS OVER INLAND SITES SHOULD
STAY PRIMARILY MVFR WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS PROBABLE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR BY MID-MORNING.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST EARLY
FRIDAY...SPREADING INLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA OR -DZ. THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR AROUND 15Z FRIDAY...THEN
IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR BY 18Z. AFTER 18Z...EXPECT CIGS TO BOUNCE
BETWEEN VFR/MVFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
HEAVY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE AT BUOY 29 THIS
EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS EVENING IS MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THIS IS INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE W/NW TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND PEAK AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AS
WELL BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE 20 KTS...THOUGH A COUPLE
GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD START TO WEAKEN
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER
THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE WINDS TURN
OFFSHORE AND INCREASE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS WITH SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

CURRENTLY SEAS ARE AROUND 5 TO 6 FT AND ARE INCREASING THIS
EVENING. SEAS EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 8 TO 9 FT FRIDAY MORNING AND
STAY AROUND 8 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
SWELL MOVING IN WITH PERIODS OF AROUND 8 FT FRIDAY WHICH COULD
CREATE SQUARE SEAS MIDDAY FRIDAY. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A
SCA FOR THIS YET. SEAS DROP BACK DOWN TO 4 TO 5 FT BY SUNDAY
BEFORE OUR NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS COULD AGAIN
BUILD TO NEAR 10 FT WITH THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY...BEFORE DROPPING
BACK DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN
     LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 270400
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THAT MOVED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS DIMINISHING A BIT ON THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY, BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS OUT THERE. MOST AREAS
AROUND THE ROGUE VALLEY HAD FROM 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH OF RAIN WHILE
AREAS ALONG THE COAST SAW THE MOST WITH 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH. I WAS
HARD-PRESSED TO FIND MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EAST
SIDE. EVEN THOUGH WE`RE CURRENTLY SEEING A DOWNWARD TREND IN
PRECIPITATION, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...LOCATED NEAR VANCOUVER
ISLAND...WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY. WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT, EXPECT SHOWERS TO PICK UP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW
LEVELS THIS EVENING ARE RUNNING AROUND 5000-5500 FT AND THESE WILL
LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THE CASCADES/SISKIYOUS AND CAN BE VIEWED AT
WSWMFR. THE AIR ALOFT IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE 00Z NAM12
IS HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION WRAPPING BACK INTO EAST SIDE AREAS
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND SNOW LEVELS DROP. WE`LL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...MVFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON.  INLAND FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...IMPROVING SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  EAST OF THE
CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
4000 TO 5000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST THURSDAY 26 FEB 2015...WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAVE POURED INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND WILL LIKELY BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE IT PUSHES AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM, ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO SNOW.
THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ABOUT SNOW LEVELS, WHICH MAY DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE  DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FOR
THE PAST WEEK OR SO. HAVE ERRED ON THE COLDER SIDE SLIGHTLY, BUT
GENERALLY DEPENDED ON A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION.

SNOW LEVELS AS OF THIS WRITING ARE AT ABOUT 5000 TO 6000 FT, BUT BY
TOMORROW MORNING, THEY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 4000 FT AND REMAIN
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREFORE, EXPECT SNOW TO
IMPACT NEARLY ALL CASCADE PASSES, AS WELL AS SISKIYOU SUMMIT
ALONG INTERSTATE 5. HOWEVER, WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM,
THE CASCADES SHOULD RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL, AROUND 5 TO
10 INCHES AT PASS LEVEL, WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT. ROAD TEMPERATURES THERE MAY ALSO IMPEDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE ROADWAY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW EXPECTED NEAR THE DIAMOND LAKE INTERCHANGE, ALONG HIGHWAY
140, AND NEAR CRATER LAKE, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BELOW THE SNOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE OVERLY
SIGNIFICANT, WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH EXPECTED WEST OF THE
CASCADES, AND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS TO THE EAST. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SIDE COULD PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.

ONCE THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY, RIDGING WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH, AS MODELS
ARE PRODUCING A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
SOLUTIONS INVOLVING THIS SYSTEM, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT
IN THE LATEST RUNS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ENTER THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WE ENTER
THE LONG TERM. -BPN

LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
        ORZ027-028-617-621-623.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
        UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

18/18/18




000
FXUS66 KMFR 270400
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THAT MOVED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS DIMINISHING A BIT ON THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY, BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS OUT THERE. MOST AREAS
AROUND THE ROGUE VALLEY HAD FROM 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH OF RAIN WHILE
AREAS ALONG THE COAST SAW THE MOST WITH 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH. I WAS
HARD-PRESSED TO FIND MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EAST
SIDE. EVEN THOUGH WE`RE CURRENTLY SEEING A DOWNWARD TREND IN
PRECIPITATION, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...LOCATED NEAR VANCOUVER
ISLAND...WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY. WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT, EXPECT SHOWERS TO PICK UP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW
LEVELS THIS EVENING ARE RUNNING AROUND 5000-5500 FT AND THESE WILL
LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THE CASCADES/SISKIYOUS AND CAN BE VIEWED AT
WSWMFR. THE AIR ALOFT IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE 00Z NAM12
IS HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION WRAPPING BACK INTO EAST SIDE AREAS
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND SNOW LEVELS DROP. WE`LL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...MVFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON.  INLAND FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...IMPROVING SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  EAST OF THE
CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
4000 TO 5000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST THURSDAY 26 FEB 2015...WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAVE POURED INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND WILL LIKELY BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE IT PUSHES AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM, ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO SNOW.
THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ABOUT SNOW LEVELS, WHICH MAY DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE  DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FOR
THE PAST WEEK OR SO. HAVE ERRED ON THE COLDER SIDE SLIGHTLY, BUT
GENERALLY DEPENDED ON A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION.

SNOW LEVELS AS OF THIS WRITING ARE AT ABOUT 5000 TO 6000 FT, BUT BY
TOMORROW MORNING, THEY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 4000 FT AND REMAIN
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREFORE, EXPECT SNOW TO
IMPACT NEARLY ALL CASCADE PASSES, AS WELL AS SISKIYOU SUMMIT
ALONG INTERSTATE 5. HOWEVER, WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM,
THE CASCADES SHOULD RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL, AROUND 5 TO
10 INCHES AT PASS LEVEL, WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT. ROAD TEMPERATURES THERE MAY ALSO IMPEDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE ROADWAY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW EXPECTED NEAR THE DIAMOND LAKE INTERCHANGE, ALONG HIGHWAY
140, AND NEAR CRATER LAKE, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BELOW THE SNOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE OVERLY
SIGNIFICANT, WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH EXPECTED WEST OF THE
CASCADES, AND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS TO THE EAST. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SIDE COULD PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.

ONCE THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY, RIDGING WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH, AS MODELS
ARE PRODUCING A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
SOLUTIONS INVOLVING THIS SYSTEM, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT
IN THE LATEST RUNS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ENTER THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WE ENTER
THE LONG TERM. -BPN

LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
        ORZ027-028-617-621-623.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
        UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

18/18/18




000
FXUS66 KMFR 270400
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THAT MOVED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS DIMINISHING A BIT ON THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY, BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS OUT THERE. MOST AREAS
AROUND THE ROGUE VALLEY HAD FROM 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH OF RAIN WHILE
AREAS ALONG THE COAST SAW THE MOST WITH 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH. I WAS
HARD-PRESSED TO FIND MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EAST
SIDE. EVEN THOUGH WE`RE CURRENTLY SEEING A DOWNWARD TREND IN
PRECIPITATION, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...LOCATED NEAR VANCOUVER
ISLAND...WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY. WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT, EXPECT SHOWERS TO PICK UP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW
LEVELS THIS EVENING ARE RUNNING AROUND 5000-5500 FT AND THESE WILL
LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THE CASCADES/SISKIYOUS AND CAN BE VIEWED AT
WSWMFR. THE AIR ALOFT IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE 00Z NAM12
IS HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION WRAPPING BACK INTO EAST SIDE AREAS
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND SNOW LEVELS DROP. WE`LL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...MVFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON.  INLAND FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...IMPROVING SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  EAST OF THE
CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
4000 TO 5000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST THURSDAY 26 FEB 2015...WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAVE POURED INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND WILL LIKELY BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE IT PUSHES AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM, ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO SNOW.
THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ABOUT SNOW LEVELS, WHICH MAY DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE  DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FOR
THE PAST WEEK OR SO. HAVE ERRED ON THE COLDER SIDE SLIGHTLY, BUT
GENERALLY DEPENDED ON A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION.

SNOW LEVELS AS OF THIS WRITING ARE AT ABOUT 5000 TO 6000 FT, BUT BY
TOMORROW MORNING, THEY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 4000 FT AND REMAIN
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREFORE, EXPECT SNOW TO
IMPACT NEARLY ALL CASCADE PASSES, AS WELL AS SISKIYOU SUMMIT
ALONG INTERSTATE 5. HOWEVER, WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM,
THE CASCADES SHOULD RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL, AROUND 5 TO
10 INCHES AT PASS LEVEL, WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT. ROAD TEMPERATURES THERE MAY ALSO IMPEDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE ROADWAY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW EXPECTED NEAR THE DIAMOND LAKE INTERCHANGE, ALONG HIGHWAY
140, AND NEAR CRATER LAKE, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BELOW THE SNOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE OVERLY
SIGNIFICANT, WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH EXPECTED WEST OF THE
CASCADES, AND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS TO THE EAST. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SIDE COULD PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.

ONCE THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY, RIDGING WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH, AS MODELS
ARE PRODUCING A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
SOLUTIONS INVOLVING THIS SYSTEM, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT
IN THE LATEST RUNS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ENTER THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WE ENTER
THE LONG TERM. -BPN

LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
        ORZ027-028-617-621-623.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
        UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

18/18/18




000
FXUS66 KMFR 270400
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THAT MOVED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS DIMINISHING A BIT ON THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY, BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS OUT THERE. MOST AREAS
AROUND THE ROGUE VALLEY HAD FROM 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH OF RAIN WHILE
AREAS ALONG THE COAST SAW THE MOST WITH 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH. I WAS
HARD-PRESSED TO FIND MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EAST
SIDE. EVEN THOUGH WE`RE CURRENTLY SEEING A DOWNWARD TREND IN
PRECIPITATION, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...LOCATED NEAR VANCOUVER
ISLAND...WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY. WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT, EXPECT SHOWERS TO PICK UP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW
LEVELS THIS EVENING ARE RUNNING AROUND 5000-5500 FT AND THESE WILL
LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THE CASCADES/SISKIYOUS AND CAN BE VIEWED AT
WSWMFR. THE AIR ALOFT IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE 00Z NAM12
IS HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION WRAPPING BACK INTO EAST SIDE AREAS
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND SNOW LEVELS DROP. WE`LL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...MVFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON.  INLAND FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...IMPROVING SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  EAST OF THE
CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
4000 TO 5000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST THURSDAY 26 FEB 2015...WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAVE POURED INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND WILL LIKELY BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE IT PUSHES AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM, ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO SNOW.
THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ABOUT SNOW LEVELS, WHICH MAY DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE  DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FOR
THE PAST WEEK OR SO. HAVE ERRED ON THE COLDER SIDE SLIGHTLY, BUT
GENERALLY DEPENDED ON A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION.

SNOW LEVELS AS OF THIS WRITING ARE AT ABOUT 5000 TO 6000 FT, BUT BY
TOMORROW MORNING, THEY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 4000 FT AND REMAIN
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREFORE, EXPECT SNOW TO
IMPACT NEARLY ALL CASCADE PASSES, AS WELL AS SISKIYOU SUMMIT
ALONG INTERSTATE 5. HOWEVER, WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM,
THE CASCADES SHOULD RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL, AROUND 5 TO
10 INCHES AT PASS LEVEL, WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT. ROAD TEMPERATURES THERE MAY ALSO IMPEDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE ROADWAY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW EXPECTED NEAR THE DIAMOND LAKE INTERCHANGE, ALONG HIGHWAY
140, AND NEAR CRATER LAKE, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BELOW THE SNOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE OVERLY
SIGNIFICANT, WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH EXPECTED WEST OF THE
CASCADES, AND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS TO THE EAST. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SIDE COULD PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.

ONCE THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY, RIDGING WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH, AS MODELS
ARE PRODUCING A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
SOLUTIONS INVOLVING THIS SYSTEM, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT
IN THE LATEST RUNS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ENTER THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WE ENTER
THE LONG TERM. -BPN

LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
        ORZ027-028-617-621-623.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
        UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

18/18/18




000
FXUS66 KPDT 270357
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
755 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR VANCOUVER
ISLAND SHOWING GOOD ENHANCEMENT ON IR SATELLITE THE PAST FEW HOURS.
AS THIS LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT EXPECT CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES INTO CENTRAL OREGON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SNOW LEVEL AROUND 4000 FEET TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN LOWERING FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. MUCH COLDER SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. BREEZY NORTH WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 344 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT
ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS/VIS.
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WITH
RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER EITHER 27/08
OR 27/10 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH KPSC SEEING
VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. CIGS AT THESE TWO SITES WILL
VARY BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FT AGL. KPDT WILL REMAIN VFR, THOUGH
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VICINITY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS PERIOD. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  49  28  43 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  52  31  46 /  30  20  20  10
PSC  37  55  32  50 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  35  52  30  47 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  52  30  48 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  36  52  29  47 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  32  45  23  36 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  30  46  27  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  29  43  27  37 /  50  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/





000
FXUS66 KPDT 270357
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
755 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR VANCOUVER
ISLAND SHOWING GOOD ENHANCEMENT ON IR SATELLITE THE PAST FEW HOURS.
AS THIS LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT EXPECT CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES INTO CENTRAL OREGON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SNOW LEVEL AROUND 4000 FEET TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN LOWERING FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. MUCH COLDER SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. BREEZY NORTH WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 344 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT
ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS/VIS.
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WITH
RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER EITHER 27/08
OR 27/10 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH KPSC SEEING
VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. CIGS AT THESE TWO SITES WILL
VARY BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FT AGL. KPDT WILL REMAIN VFR, THOUGH
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VICINITY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS PERIOD. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  49  28  43 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  52  31  46 /  30  20  20  10
PSC  37  55  32  50 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  35  52  30  47 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  52  30  48 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  36  52  29  47 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  32  45  23  36 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  30  46  27  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  29  43  27  37 /  50  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/





000
FXUS66 KPDT 270357
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
755 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR VANCOUVER
ISLAND SHOWING GOOD ENHANCEMENT ON IR SATELLITE THE PAST FEW HOURS.
AS THIS LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT EXPECT CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES INTO CENTRAL OREGON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SNOW LEVEL AROUND 4000 FEET TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN LOWERING FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. MUCH COLDER SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. BREEZY NORTH WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 344 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT
ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS/VIS.
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WITH
RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER EITHER 27/08
OR 27/10 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH KPSC SEEING
VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. CIGS AT THESE TWO SITES WILL
VARY BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FT AGL. KPDT WILL REMAIN VFR, THOUGH
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VICINITY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS PERIOD. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  49  28  43 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  52  31  46 /  30  20  20  10
PSC  37  55  32  50 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  35  52  30  47 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  52  30  48 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  36  52  29  47 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  32  45  23  36 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  30  46  27  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  29  43  27  37 /  50  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/





000
FXUS66 KPDT 270357
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
755 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR VANCOUVER
ISLAND SHOWING GOOD ENHANCEMENT ON IR SATELLITE THE PAST FEW HOURS.
AS THIS LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT EXPECT CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES INTO CENTRAL OREGON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SNOW LEVEL AROUND 4000 FEET TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN LOWERING FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. MUCH COLDER SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. BREEZY NORTH WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 344 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT
ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS/VIS.
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WITH
RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER EITHER 27/08
OR 27/10 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH KPSC SEEING
VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. CIGS AT THESE TWO SITES WILL
VARY BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FT AGL. KPDT WILL REMAIN VFR, THOUGH
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VICINITY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS PERIOD. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  49  28  43 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  52  31  46 /  30  20  20  10
PSC  37  55  32  50 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  35  52  30  47 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  52  30  48 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  36  52  29  47 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  32  45  23  36 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  30  46  27  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  29  43  27  37 /  50  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/





000
FXUS65 KBOI 270346
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
846 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PASSED THROUGH
OUR CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT KCBX
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED ACTIVITY DECREASING AS OF 8 PM MST.  MODELS
BRING A CANADIAN WAVE DOWN THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND FORM
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER OREGON SATURDAY.  THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND OUR CWA
WILL BECOME DRIER FROM THE NORTH.  THE LOW WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR PCPN IN OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY IN OREGON
ZONES AND SOUTHERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES.  MODELS GENERATE ENOUGH QPF
FOR A SNOW ADVISORY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN
THE OWYHEES.  ANOTHER WAVE LATE MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TUESDAY UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
...POSSIBLY THE COLDEST WE HAVE SEEN SINCE EARLY JANUARY...BUT THE
COLD SURGE SHOULD BE BRIEF.  CURRENT FORELAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME
...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ACROSS SE OREGON AFTER 12Z FRIDAY AND SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4K FT MSL. MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. SURFACE WINDS...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-15 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SOUTH OF A KBNO-KBOI-KSNT
LINE...ENDING SATURDAY EVENING. CLEAR AND DRY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT AND INTO OREGON
TOMORROW...THEN INTO NRN CA AND NW NV FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
ON INTO CENTRAL CA SATURDAY. AS IT DOES THIS...MOISTURE AND COLD
AIR WILL BE BROUGHT OVER THE AREA. TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT ALL BUT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS...AND EVEN THERE WE COULD
SEE A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS LEFT IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE SOUTH. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY MAINLY TO OUR WEST...ENERGY
WILL SWING EAST AND PASS OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE WILL BE A
PIVOT POINT AT WHICH THIS ENERGY STALLS BEFORE MOVING BACK AWAY
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
PIVOT POINT...WHICH IS ACTUALLY MORE OF A LINE THAN A POINT...
WILL BE OVER THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. ENOUGH SNOW SHOULD FALL IN THE
OWYHEES TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...AND SO WE
HAVE ISSUED ONE FROM NOON TOMORROW THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY. AMOUNTS
WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL IN SURROUNDING AREAS...AND THE EXACT
DETAILS OF WHERE THE PIVOT POINT...OR LINE...DEVELOPS ARE IMPOSSIBLE
TO PIN DOWN WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE MUCH IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENT.  IF LATER FORECASTS INDICATE MORE SNOW IN THESE SURROUNDING
AREAS...ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES WOULD BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY...FALLING A FEW DEGREES
IN MOST AREAS SATURDAY. READINGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT OWING TO CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A CONTINUING COLD
PATTERN IS SUPPORTED BY ABOVE-AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON
MONDAY MODELS SHOW THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALREADY DIGGING
SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...BRINGING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY JET PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
IDAHO...BETWEEN SEPARATE AREAS OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...
AS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JDS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 270346
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
846 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PASSED THROUGH
OUR CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT KCBX
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED ACTIVITY DECREASING AS OF 8 PM MST.  MODELS
BRING A CANADIAN WAVE DOWN THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND FORM
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER OREGON SATURDAY.  THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND OUR CWA
WILL BECOME DRIER FROM THE NORTH.  THE LOW WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR PCPN IN OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY IN OREGON
ZONES AND SOUTHERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES.  MODELS GENERATE ENOUGH QPF
FOR A SNOW ADVISORY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN
THE OWYHEES.  ANOTHER WAVE LATE MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TUESDAY UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
...POSSIBLY THE COLDEST WE HAVE SEEN SINCE EARLY JANUARY...BUT THE
COLD SURGE SHOULD BE BRIEF.  CURRENT FORELAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME
...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ACROSS SE OREGON AFTER 12Z FRIDAY AND SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4K FT MSL. MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. SURFACE WINDS...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-15 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SOUTH OF A KBNO-KBOI-KSNT
LINE...ENDING SATURDAY EVENING. CLEAR AND DRY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT AND INTO OREGON
TOMORROW...THEN INTO NRN CA AND NW NV FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
ON INTO CENTRAL CA SATURDAY. AS IT DOES THIS...MOISTURE AND COLD
AIR WILL BE BROUGHT OVER THE AREA. TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT ALL BUT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS...AND EVEN THERE WE COULD
SEE A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS LEFT IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE SOUTH. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY MAINLY TO OUR WEST...ENERGY
WILL SWING EAST AND PASS OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE WILL BE A
PIVOT POINT AT WHICH THIS ENERGY STALLS BEFORE MOVING BACK AWAY
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
PIVOT POINT...WHICH IS ACTUALLY MORE OF A LINE THAN A POINT...
WILL BE OVER THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. ENOUGH SNOW SHOULD FALL IN THE
OWYHEES TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...AND SO WE
HAVE ISSUED ONE FROM NOON TOMORROW THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY. AMOUNTS
WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL IN SURROUNDING AREAS...AND THE EXACT
DETAILS OF WHERE THE PIVOT POINT...OR LINE...DEVELOPS ARE IMPOSSIBLE
TO PIN DOWN WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE MUCH IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENT.  IF LATER FORECASTS INDICATE MORE SNOW IN THESE SURROUNDING
AREAS...ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES WOULD BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY...FALLING A FEW DEGREES
IN MOST AREAS SATURDAY. READINGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT OWING TO CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A CONTINUING COLD
PATTERN IS SUPPORTED BY ABOVE-AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON
MONDAY MODELS SHOW THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALREADY DIGGING
SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...BRINGING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY JET PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
IDAHO...BETWEEN SEPARATE AREAS OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...
AS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JDS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH



000
FXUS66 KMFR 270002
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
402 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAVE POURED INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND WILL LIKELY BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE IT PUSHES AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM, ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO SNOW.
THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ABOUT SNOW LEVELS, WHICH MAY DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE  DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FOR
THE PAST WEEK OR SO. HAVE ERRED ON THE COLDER SIDE SLIGHTLY, BUT
GENERALLY DEPENDED ON A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION.

SNOW LEVELS AS OF THIS WRITING ARE AT ABOUT 5000 TO 6000 FT, BUT BY
TOMORROW MORNING, THEY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 4000 FT AND REMAIN
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREFORE, EXPECT SNOW TO
IMPACT NEARLY ALL CASCADE PASSES, AS WELL AS SISKIYOU SUMMIT
ALONG INTERSTATE 5. HOWEVER, WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM,
THE CASCADES SHOULD RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL, AROUND 5 TO
10 INCHES AT PASS LEVEL, WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT. ROAD TEMPERATURES THERE MAY ALSO IMPEDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE ROADWAY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW EXPECTED NEAR THE DIAMOND LAKE INTERCHANGE, ALONG HIGHWAY
140, AND NEAR CRATER LAKE, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BELOW THE SNOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE OVERLY
SIGNIFICANT, WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH EXPECTED WEST OF THE
CASCADES, AND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS TO THE EAST. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SIDE COULD PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.

ONCE THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY, RIDGING WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH, AS MODELS
ARE PRODUCING A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
SOLUTIONS INVOLVING THIS SYSTEM, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT
IN THE LATEST RUNS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ENTER THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WE ENTER
THE LONG TERM. -BPN

LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...MVFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON.  INLAND FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...IMPROVING SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  EAST OF THE
CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
4000 TO 5000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST, THURSDAY, 26 FEB, 2015... WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/BTL/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 270002
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
402 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAVE POURED INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND WILL LIKELY BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE IT PUSHES AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM, ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO SNOW.
THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ABOUT SNOW LEVELS, WHICH MAY DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE  DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FOR
THE PAST WEEK OR SO. HAVE ERRED ON THE COLDER SIDE SLIGHTLY, BUT
GENERALLY DEPENDED ON A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION.

SNOW LEVELS AS OF THIS WRITING ARE AT ABOUT 5000 TO 6000 FT, BUT BY
TOMORROW MORNING, THEY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 4000 FT AND REMAIN
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREFORE, EXPECT SNOW TO
IMPACT NEARLY ALL CASCADE PASSES, AS WELL AS SISKIYOU SUMMIT
ALONG INTERSTATE 5. HOWEVER, WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM,
THE CASCADES SHOULD RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL, AROUND 5 TO
10 INCHES AT PASS LEVEL, WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT. ROAD TEMPERATURES THERE MAY ALSO IMPEDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE ROADWAY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW EXPECTED NEAR THE DIAMOND LAKE INTERCHANGE, ALONG HIGHWAY
140, AND NEAR CRATER LAKE, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BELOW THE SNOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE OVERLY
SIGNIFICANT, WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH EXPECTED WEST OF THE
CASCADES, AND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS TO THE EAST. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SIDE COULD PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.

ONCE THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY, RIDGING WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH, AS MODELS
ARE PRODUCING A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
SOLUTIONS INVOLVING THIS SYSTEM, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT
IN THE LATEST RUNS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ENTER THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WE ENTER
THE LONG TERM. -BPN

LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...MVFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON.  INLAND FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...IMPROVING SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  EAST OF THE
CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
4000 TO 5000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST, THURSDAY, 26 FEB, 2015... WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/BTL/JRS



000
FXUS66 KPDT 262345 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
344 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT
ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS/VIS.
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WITH
RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER EITHER 27/08
OR 27/10 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH KPSC SEEING
VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. CIGS AT THESE TWO SITES WILL
VARY BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FT AGL. KPDT WILL REMAIN VFR, THOUGH
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VICINITY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS PERIOD. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  48  28  42 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  51  31  46 /  20  20  20  10
PSC  37  54  33  49 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  34  46  30  45 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  50  30  47 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  37  50  29  48 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  31  44  21  35 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  29  46  26  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  31  44  29  37 /  40  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/90/90








000
FXUS66 KPDT 262345 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
344 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT
ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS/VIS.
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WITH
RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER EITHER 27/08
OR 27/10 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH KPSC SEEING
VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. CIGS AT THESE TWO SITES WILL
VARY BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FT AGL. KPDT WILL REMAIN VFR, THOUGH
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VICINITY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS PERIOD. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  48  28  42 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  51  31  46 /  20  20  20  10
PSC  37  54  33  49 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  34  46  30  45 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  50  30  47 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  37  50  29  48 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  31  44  21  35 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  29  46  26  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  31  44  29  37 /  40  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/90/90







000
FXUS66 KPDT 262345 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
344 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT
ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS/VIS.
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WITH
RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER EITHER 27/08
OR 27/10 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH KPSC SEEING
VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. CIGS AT THESE TWO SITES WILL
VARY BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FT AGL. KPDT WILL REMAIN VFR, THOUGH
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VICINITY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS PERIOD. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  48  28  42 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  51  31  46 /  20  20  20  10
PSC  37  54  33  49 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  34  46  30  45 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  50  30  47 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  37  50  29  48 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  31  44  21  35 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  29  46  26  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  31  44  29  37 /  40  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/90/90








000
FXUS66 KPDT 262345 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
344 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT
ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS/VIS.
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WITH
RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER EITHER 27/08
OR 27/10 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH KPSC SEEING
VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. CIGS AT THESE TWO SITES WILL
VARY BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FT AGL. KPDT WILL REMAIN VFR, THOUGH
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VICINITY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS PERIOD. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  48  28  42 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  51  31  46 /  20  20  20  10
PSC  37  54  33  49 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  34  46  30  45 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  50  30  47 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  37  50  29  48 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  31  44  21  35 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  29  46  26  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  31  44  29  37 /  40  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/90/90







000
FXUS66 KMFR 262304
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
304 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAVE POURED INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND WILL LIKELY BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE IT PUSHES AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM, ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO SNOW.
THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ABOUT SNOW LEVELS, WHICH MAY DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE  DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FOR
THE PAST WEEK OR SO. HAVE ERRED ON THE COLDER SIDE SLIGHTLY, BUT
GENERALLY DEPENDED ON A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION.

SNOW LEVELS AS OF THIS WRITING ARE AT ABOUT 5000 TO 6000 FT, BUT BY
TOMORROW MORNING, THEY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 4000 FT AND REMAIN
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREFORE, EXPECT SNOW TO
IMPACT NEARLY ALL CASCADE PASSES, AS WELL AS SISKIYOU SUMMIT
ALONG INTERSTATE 5. HOWEVER, WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM,
THE CASCADES SHOULD RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL, AROUND 5 TO
10 INCHES AT PASS LEVEL, WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT. ROAD TEMPERATURES THERE MAY ALSO IMPEDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE ROADWAY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW EXPECTED NEAR THE DIAMOND LAKE INTERCHANGE, ALONG HIGHWAY
140, AND NEAR CRATER LAKE, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BELOW THE SNOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE OVERLY
SIGNIFICANT, WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH EXPECTED WEST OF THE
CASCADES, AND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS TO THE EAST. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SIDE COULD PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.

ONCE THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY, RIDGING WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH, AS MODELS
ARE PRODUCING A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
SOLUTIONS INVOLVING THIS SYSTEM, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT
IN THE LATEST RUNS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ENTER THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WE ENTER
THE LONG TERM. -BPN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST
SIDE TODAY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE UMPQUA DIVIDE NORTH AND WESTWARD.
EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THESE LOWERING VALLEY CIGS. ALONG
THE COAST SOME IFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
TERRAIN TO BECOME OBSCURED IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR
CIGS/LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEST SIDE, THE EAST SIDE, AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ON FRIDAY MORNING. -BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 9 AM PST, THURSDAY, 26 FEB, 2015... WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. BTL/KEENE


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4
     AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

BPN/BTL



000
FXUS66 KMFR 262304
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
304 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAVE POURED INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND WILL LIKELY BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE IT PUSHES AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM, ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO SNOW.
THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ABOUT SNOW LEVELS, WHICH MAY DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE  DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FOR
THE PAST WEEK OR SO. HAVE ERRED ON THE COLDER SIDE SLIGHTLY, BUT
GENERALLY DEPENDED ON A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION.

SNOW LEVELS AS OF THIS WRITING ARE AT ABOUT 5000 TO 6000 FT, BUT BY
TOMORROW MORNING, THEY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 4000 FT AND REMAIN
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREFORE, EXPECT SNOW TO
IMPACT NEARLY ALL CASCADE PASSES, AS WELL AS SISKIYOU SUMMIT
ALONG INTERSTATE 5. HOWEVER, WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM,
THE CASCADES SHOULD RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL, AROUND 5 TO
10 INCHES AT PASS LEVEL, WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT. ROAD TEMPERATURES THERE MAY ALSO IMPEDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE ROADWAY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW EXPECTED NEAR THE DIAMOND LAKE INTERCHANGE, ALONG HIGHWAY
140, AND NEAR CRATER LAKE, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BELOW THE SNOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE OVERLY
SIGNIFICANT, WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH EXPECTED WEST OF THE
CASCADES, AND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS TO THE EAST. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SIDE COULD PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.

ONCE THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY, RIDGING WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH, AS MODELS
ARE PRODUCING A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
SOLUTIONS INVOLVING THIS SYSTEM, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT
IN THE LATEST RUNS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ENTER THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WE ENTER
THE LONG TERM. -BPN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST
SIDE TODAY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE UMPQUA DIVIDE NORTH AND WESTWARD.
EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THESE LOWERING VALLEY CIGS. ALONG
THE COAST SOME IFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
TERRAIN TO BECOME OBSCURED IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR
CIGS/LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEST SIDE, THE EAST SIDE, AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ON FRIDAY MORNING. -BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 9 AM PST, THURSDAY, 26 FEB, 2015... WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. BTL/KEENE


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4
     AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

BPN/BTL



000
FXUS66 KMFR 262304
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
304 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAVE POURED INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND WILL LIKELY BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE IT PUSHES AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM, ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO SNOW.
THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ABOUT SNOW LEVELS, WHICH MAY DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE  DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FOR
THE PAST WEEK OR SO. HAVE ERRED ON THE COLDER SIDE SLIGHTLY, BUT
GENERALLY DEPENDED ON A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION.

SNOW LEVELS AS OF THIS WRITING ARE AT ABOUT 5000 TO 6000 FT, BUT BY
TOMORROW MORNING, THEY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 4000 FT AND REMAIN
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREFORE, EXPECT SNOW TO
IMPACT NEARLY ALL CASCADE PASSES, AS WELL AS SISKIYOU SUMMIT
ALONG INTERSTATE 5. HOWEVER, WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM,
THE CASCADES SHOULD RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL, AROUND 5 TO
10 INCHES AT PASS LEVEL, WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT. ROAD TEMPERATURES THERE MAY ALSO IMPEDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE ROADWAY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW EXPECTED NEAR THE DIAMOND LAKE INTERCHANGE, ALONG HIGHWAY
140, AND NEAR CRATER LAKE, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BELOW THE SNOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE OVERLY
SIGNIFICANT, WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH EXPECTED WEST OF THE
CASCADES, AND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS TO THE EAST. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SIDE COULD PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.

ONCE THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY, RIDGING WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH, AS MODELS
ARE PRODUCING A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
SOLUTIONS INVOLVING THIS SYSTEM, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT
IN THE LATEST RUNS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ENTER THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WE ENTER
THE LONG TERM. -BPN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST
SIDE TODAY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE UMPQUA DIVIDE NORTH AND WESTWARD.
EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THESE LOWERING VALLEY CIGS. ALONG
THE COAST SOME IFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
TERRAIN TO BECOME OBSCURED IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR
CIGS/LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEST SIDE, THE EAST SIDE, AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ON FRIDAY MORNING. -BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 9 AM PST, THURSDAY, 26 FEB, 2015... WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. BTL/KEENE


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4
     AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

BPN/BTL




000
FXUS66 KPDT 262228
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
228 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS
OF PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS/VIS. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WITH RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY
STARTING AFTER EITHER 27/07 OR 27/09 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND
KRDM COULD BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME AM
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC, KPDT AND KALW TO
REMAIN VFR WITH KPDT AND KPSC SEEING VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. ALSO KPDT MAY SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD
DUE TO UPSLOPE AFFECTS. CIGS AT THESE THREE SITES WILL VARY BETWEEN
4500 AND 11000 FT AGL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS
DURING THIS PERIOD. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  48  28  42 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  51  31  46 /  20  20  20  10
PSC  37  54  33  49 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  34  46  30  45 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  50  30  47 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  37  50  29  48 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  31  44  21  35 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  29  46  26  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  31  44  29  37 /  40  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/90/90








000
FXUS66 KPDT 262228
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
228 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS
OF PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS/VIS. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WITH RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY
STARTING AFTER EITHER 27/07 OR 27/09 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND
KRDM COULD BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME AM
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC, KPDT AND KALW TO
REMAIN VFR WITH KPDT AND KPSC SEEING VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. ALSO KPDT MAY SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD
DUE TO UPSLOPE AFFECTS. CIGS AT THESE THREE SITES WILL VARY BETWEEN
4500 AND 11000 FT AGL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS
DURING THIS PERIOD. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  48  28  42 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  51  31  46 /  20  20  20  10
PSC  37  54  33  49 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  34  46  30  45 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  50  30  47 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  37  50  29  48 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  31  44  21  35 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  29  46  26  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  31  44  29  37 /  40  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/90/90







000
FXUS66 KPDT 262228
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
228 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS
OF PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS/VIS. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WITH RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY
STARTING AFTER EITHER 27/07 OR 27/09 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND
KRDM COULD BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME AM
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC, KPDT AND KALW TO
REMAIN VFR WITH KPDT AND KPSC SEEING VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. ALSO KPDT MAY SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD
DUE TO UPSLOPE AFFECTS. CIGS AT THESE THREE SITES WILL VARY BETWEEN
4500 AND 11000 FT AGL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS
DURING THIS PERIOD. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  48  28  42 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  51  31  46 /  20  20  20  10
PSC  37  54  33  49 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  34  46  30  45 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  50  30  47 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  37  50  29  48 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  31  44  21  35 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  29  46  26  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  31  44  29  37 /  40  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/90/90








000
FXUS66 KPQR 262213
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
213 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AND BE NEAR
OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AND SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL OR DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLE SUNSHINE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WEAKER THAN THE FIRST MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO NW WASHINGTON THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF INTEREST
IS JUST OFFSHORE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF OPEN-CELLED CUMULUS OVER THE NE PACIFIC
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS INDICATE THAT THE
COLD AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH.

LOW LAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON
WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY AS THESE TWO FEATURES...THE
TROUGH AND UPPER JET...SLIDE SOUTHWARD. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE 5000 FEET...AND LOWER LATE TONIGHT TO AROUND 4000 FEET
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM WHEN THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+KT JET STREAK WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS WILL POSITION NW OREGON UNDER THE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED LIFT.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A DECENT SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES WARRANTING A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET WHERE 4 TO 8
INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
AREAS BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FT MAY MEASURE UP TO 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH IS INSTABILITY THAT IT WILL
BRING. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT SMALL HAIL
EMBEDDED IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SNOW AT AND BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW FALL RATES
WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS TIME...BUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THOSE PLANNING TO HEAD TO THE
MOUNTAINS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE RECREATIONAL ASPECTS OF THIS NEW
SNOW SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW COVERED ROADS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS WILL
RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE
CASCADES. TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST WILL BE MORE MODERATE WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT
AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST
COAST. DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. TJ

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
TO FEED INTO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TODAY AND WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS GENERALLY A MIXTURE OF MVFR INLAND AND IFR AT THE
COAST. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT...MAINTAINING MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND AND BRINGING
CIGS UP TO MVFR AT COASTAL SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH
SLIGHT...THE THUNDER THREAT WILL SPREAD INLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY MAY DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR VIS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA OR -DZ.
CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT KEEP MVFR CIG WITH A
CHANCE FOR IFR CIG AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH WIND TO SPEAK OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH BUOY 29
REPORTING SW AT 4 KT. HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE W/NW THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR WINDS THROUGH 09Z SATURDAY...BUT
THERE
IS ONLY A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE AND INCREASE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ONE MORE ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT PROBABLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT
ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOWEN/PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 262213
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
213 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AND BE NEAR
OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AND SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL OR DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLE SUNSHINE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WEAKER THAN THE FIRST MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO NW WASHINGTON THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF INTEREST
IS JUST OFFSHORE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF OPEN-CELLED CUMULUS OVER THE NE PACIFIC
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS INDICATE THAT THE
COLD AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH.

LOW LAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON
WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY AS THESE TWO FEATURES...THE
TROUGH AND UPPER JET...SLIDE SOUTHWARD. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE 5000 FEET...AND LOWER LATE TONIGHT TO AROUND 4000 FEET
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM WHEN THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+KT JET STREAK WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS WILL POSITION NW OREGON UNDER THE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED LIFT.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A DECENT SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES WARRANTING A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET WHERE 4 TO 8
INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
AREAS BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FT MAY MEASURE UP TO 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH IS INSTABILITY THAT IT WILL
BRING. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT SMALL HAIL
EMBEDDED IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SNOW AT AND BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW FALL RATES
WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS TIME...BUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THOSE PLANNING TO HEAD TO THE
MOUNTAINS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE RECREATIONAL ASPECTS OF THIS NEW
SNOW SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW COVERED ROADS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS WILL
RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE
CASCADES. TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST WILL BE MORE MODERATE WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT
AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST
COAST. DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. TJ

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
TO FEED INTO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TODAY AND WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS GENERALLY A MIXTURE OF MVFR INLAND AND IFR AT THE
COAST. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT...MAINTAINING MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND AND BRINGING
CIGS UP TO MVFR AT COASTAL SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH
SLIGHT...THE THUNDER THREAT WILL SPREAD INLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY MAY DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR VIS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA OR -DZ.
CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT KEEP MVFR CIG WITH A
CHANCE FOR IFR CIG AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH WIND TO SPEAK OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH BUOY 29
REPORTING SW AT 4 KT. HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE W/NW THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR WINDS THROUGH 09Z SATURDAY...BUT
THERE
IS ONLY A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE AND INCREASE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ONE MORE ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT PROBABLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT
ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOWEN/PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 262213
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
213 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AND BE NEAR
OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AND SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL OR DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLE SUNSHINE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WEAKER THAN THE FIRST MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO NW WASHINGTON THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF INTEREST
IS JUST OFFSHORE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF OPEN-CELLED CUMULUS OVER THE NE PACIFIC
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS INDICATE THAT THE
COLD AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH.

LOW LAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON
WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY AS THESE TWO FEATURES...THE
TROUGH AND UPPER JET...SLIDE SOUTHWARD. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE 5000 FEET...AND LOWER LATE TONIGHT TO AROUND 4000 FEET
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM WHEN THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+KT JET STREAK WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS WILL POSITION NW OREGON UNDER THE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED LIFT.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A DECENT SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES WARRANTING A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET WHERE 4 TO 8
INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
AREAS BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FT MAY MEASURE UP TO 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH IS INSTABILITY THAT IT WILL
BRING. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT SMALL HAIL
EMBEDDED IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SNOW AT AND BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW FALL RATES
WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS TIME...BUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THOSE PLANNING TO HEAD TO THE
MOUNTAINS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE RECREATIONAL ASPECTS OF THIS NEW
SNOW SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW COVERED ROADS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS WILL
RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE
CASCADES. TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST WILL BE MORE MODERATE WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT
AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST
COAST. DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. TJ

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
TO FEED INTO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TODAY AND WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS GENERALLY A MIXTURE OF MVFR INLAND AND IFR AT THE
COAST. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT...MAINTAINING MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND AND BRINGING
CIGS UP TO MVFR AT COASTAL SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH
SLIGHT...THE THUNDER THREAT WILL SPREAD INLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY MAY DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR VIS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA OR -DZ.
CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT KEEP MVFR CIG WITH A
CHANCE FOR IFR CIG AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH WIND TO SPEAK OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH BUOY 29
REPORTING SW AT 4 KT. HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE W/NW THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR WINDS THROUGH 09Z SATURDAY...BUT
THERE
IS ONLY A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE AND INCREASE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ONE MORE ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT PROBABLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT
ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOWEN/PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 262205
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
305 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT AND INTO OREGON
TOMORROW...THEN INTO NRN CA AND NW NV FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
ON INTO CENTRAL CA SATURDAY. AS IT DOES THIS...MOISTURE AND COLD
AIR WILL BE BROUGHT OVER THE AREA. TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT ALL BUT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS...AND EVEN THERE WE COULD
SEE A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS LEFT IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE SOUTH. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY MAINLY TO OUR WEST...ENERGY
WILL SWING EAST AND PASS OVER. THERE WILL BE A PIVOT POINT AT
WHICH THIS ENERGY STALLS BEFORE MOVING BACK AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE PIVOT POINT...WHICH
IS ACTUALLY MORE OF A LINE THAN A POINT...WILL BE OVER THE OWYHEE
MOUNTAINS. ENOUGH SNOW SHOULD FALL IN THE OWYHEES TO WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...AND SO WE HAVE ISSUED ONE FROM
NOON TOMORROW THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY. AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVEL IN SURROUNDING AREAS...AND THE EXACT DETAILS OF
WHERE THE PIVOT POINT...OR LINE...DEVELOPS ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN
DOWN WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE MUCH IN ADVANCE OF THE EVENT.
IF LATER FORECASTS INDICATE MORE SNOW IN THESE SURROUNDING AREAS...
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES WOULD BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY...FALLING A FEW DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS SATURDAY. READINGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT OWING TO CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A CONTINUING COLD
PATTERN IS SUPPORTED BY ABOVE-AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON
MONDAY MODELS SHOW THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALREADY DIGGING
SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...BRINGING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY JET PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
IDAHO...BETWEEN SEPARATE AREAS OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...
AS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS...
4K-5K FT MSL. EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS...
NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 00Z.
WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 262205
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
305 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT AND INTO OREGON
TOMORROW...THEN INTO NRN CA AND NW NV FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
ON INTO CENTRAL CA SATURDAY. AS IT DOES THIS...MOISTURE AND COLD
AIR WILL BE BROUGHT OVER THE AREA. TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT ALL BUT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS...AND EVEN THERE WE COULD
SEE A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS LEFT IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE SOUTH. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY MAINLY TO OUR WEST...ENERGY
WILL SWING EAST AND PASS OVER. THERE WILL BE A PIVOT POINT AT
WHICH THIS ENERGY STALLS BEFORE MOVING BACK AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE PIVOT POINT...WHICH
IS ACTUALLY MORE OF A LINE THAN A POINT...WILL BE OVER THE OWYHEE
MOUNTAINS. ENOUGH SNOW SHOULD FALL IN THE OWYHEES TO WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...AND SO WE HAVE ISSUED ONE FROM
NOON TOMORROW THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY. AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVEL IN SURROUNDING AREAS...AND THE EXACT DETAILS OF
WHERE THE PIVOT POINT...OR LINE...DEVELOPS ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN
DOWN WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE MUCH IN ADVANCE OF THE EVENT.
IF LATER FORECASTS INDICATE MORE SNOW IN THESE SURROUNDING AREAS...
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES WOULD BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY...FALLING A FEW DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS SATURDAY. READINGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT OWING TO CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A CONTINUING COLD
PATTERN IS SUPPORTED BY ABOVE-AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON
MONDAY MODELS SHOW THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALREADY DIGGING
SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...BRINGING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY JET PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
IDAHO...BETWEEN SEPARATE AREAS OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...
AS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS...
4K-5K FT MSL. EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS...
NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 00Z.
WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 262205
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
305 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT AND INTO OREGON
TOMORROW...THEN INTO NRN CA AND NW NV FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
ON INTO CENTRAL CA SATURDAY. AS IT DOES THIS...MOISTURE AND COLD
AIR WILL BE BROUGHT OVER THE AREA. TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT ALL BUT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS...AND EVEN THERE WE COULD
SEE A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS LEFT IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE SOUTH. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY MAINLY TO OUR WEST...ENERGY
WILL SWING EAST AND PASS OVER. THERE WILL BE A PIVOT POINT AT
WHICH THIS ENERGY STALLS BEFORE MOVING BACK AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE PIVOT POINT...WHICH
IS ACTUALLY MORE OF A LINE THAN A POINT...WILL BE OVER THE OWYHEE
MOUNTAINS. ENOUGH SNOW SHOULD FALL IN THE OWYHEES TO WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...AND SO WE HAVE ISSUED ONE FROM
NOON TOMORROW THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY. AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVEL IN SURROUNDING AREAS...AND THE EXACT DETAILS OF
WHERE THE PIVOT POINT...OR LINE...DEVELOPS ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN
DOWN WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE MUCH IN ADVANCE OF THE EVENT.
IF LATER FORECASTS INDICATE MORE SNOW IN THESE SURROUNDING AREAS...
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES WOULD BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY...FALLING A FEW DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS SATURDAY. READINGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT OWING TO CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A CONTINUING COLD
PATTERN IS SUPPORTED BY ABOVE-AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON
MONDAY MODELS SHOW THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALREADY DIGGING
SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...BRINGING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY JET PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
IDAHO...BETWEEN SEPARATE AREAS OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...
AS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS...
4K-5K FT MSL. EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS...
NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 00Z.
WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS66 KPDT 261748 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
948 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. FROM
MEACHAM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND INTO THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
AND GRANT COUNTY...ELEVATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND
ANY PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN. AS THE LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA TRAVELS DOWN THE COAST SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL INITIALLY BE
OVER THE AREA RAISING SNOW LEVELS TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY FALL TO 2500 TO 3500 FEET OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN. EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL STAY
MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
IMPACT ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER
CIGS/VIS. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR WITH RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER
EITHER 27/07 OR 27/09 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC, KPDT AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH
KPDT AND KPSC SEEING VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALSO KPDT
MAY SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD DUE TO UPSLOPE
AFFECTS. CIGS AT THESE THREE SITES WILL VARY BETWEEN 4500 AND 11000
FT AGL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. 90

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  50  30  40  30
PSC  55  36  51  31 /  30  40  30  20
YKM  52  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  53  36  49  30 /  30  50  50  30
ELN  54  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  49  31  43  23 /  40  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  46  29  41  28 /  70  60  70  60
DLS  55  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 261748 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
948 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. FROM
MEACHAM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND INTO THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
AND GRANT COUNTY...ELEVATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND
ANY PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN. AS THE LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA TRAVELS DOWN THE COAST SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL INITIALLY BE
OVER THE AREA RAISING SNOW LEVELS TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY FALL TO 2500 TO 3500 FEET OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN. EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL STAY
MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
IMPACT ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER
CIGS/VIS. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR WITH RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER
EITHER 27/07 OR 27/09 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC, KPDT AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH
KPDT AND KPSC SEEING VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALSO KPDT
MAY SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD DUE TO UPSLOPE
AFFECTS. CIGS AT THESE THREE SITES WILL VARY BETWEEN 4500 AND 11000
FT AGL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. 90

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  50  30  40  30
PSC  55  36  51  31 /  30  40  30  20
YKM  52  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  53  36  49  30 /  30  50  50  30
ELN  54  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  49  31  43  23 /  40  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  46  29  41  28 /  70  60  70  60
DLS  55  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/







000
FXUS66 KPDT 261748 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
948 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. FROM
MEACHAM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND INTO THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
AND GRANT COUNTY...ELEVATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND
ANY PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN. AS THE LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA TRAVELS DOWN THE COAST SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL INITIALLY BE
OVER THE AREA RAISING SNOW LEVELS TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY FALL TO 2500 TO 3500 FEET OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN. EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL STAY
MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
IMPACT ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER
CIGS/VIS. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR WITH RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER
EITHER 27/07 OR 27/09 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC, KPDT AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH
KPDT AND KPSC SEEING VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALSO KPDT
MAY SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD DUE TO UPSLOPE
AFFECTS. CIGS AT THESE THREE SITES WILL VARY BETWEEN 4500 AND 11000
FT AGL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. 90

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  50  30  40  30
PSC  55  36  51  31 /  30  40  30  20
YKM  52  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  53  36  49  30 /  30  50  50  30
ELN  54  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  49  31  43  23 /  40  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  46  29  41  28 /  70  60  70  60
DLS  55  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/







000
FXUS66 KPDT 261748 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
948 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. FROM
MEACHAM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND INTO THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
AND GRANT COUNTY...ELEVATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND
ANY PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN. AS THE LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA TRAVELS DOWN THE COAST SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL INITIALLY BE
OVER THE AREA RAISING SNOW LEVELS TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY FALL TO 2500 TO 3500 FEET OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN. EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL STAY
MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
IMPACT ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER
CIGS/VIS. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR WITH RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER
EITHER 27/07 OR 27/09 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC, KPDT AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH
KPDT AND KPSC SEEING VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALSO KPDT
MAY SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD DUE TO UPSLOPE
AFFECTS. CIGS AT THESE THREE SITES WILL VARY BETWEEN 4500 AND 11000
FT AGL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. 90

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  50  30  40  30
PSC  55  36  51  31 /  30  40  30  20
YKM  52  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  53  36  49  30 /  30  50  50  30
ELN  54  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  49  31  43  23 /  40  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  46  29  41  28 /  70  60  70  60
DLS  55  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/







000
FXUS66 KPDT 261748 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
948 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. FROM
MEACHAM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND INTO THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
AND GRANT COUNTY...ELEVATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND
ANY PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN. AS THE LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA TRAVELS DOWN THE COAST SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL INITIALLY BE
OVER THE AREA RAISING SNOW LEVELS TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY FALL TO 2500 TO 3500 FEET OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN. EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL STAY
MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
IMPACT ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER
CIGS/VIS. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR WITH RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER
EITHER 27/07 OR 27/09 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC, KPDT AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH
KPDT AND KPSC SEEING VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALSO KPDT
MAY SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD DUE TO UPSLOPE
AFFECTS. CIGS AT THESE THREE SITES WILL VARY BETWEEN 4500 AND 11000
FT AGL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. 90

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  50  30  40  30
PSC  55  36  51  31 /  30  40  30  20
YKM  52  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  53  36  49  30 /  30  50  50  30
ELN  54  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  49  31  43  23 /  40  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  46  29  41  28 /  70  60  70  60
DLS  55  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/







000
FXUS66 KPDT 261748 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
948 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. FROM
MEACHAM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND INTO THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
AND GRANT COUNTY...ELEVATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND
ANY PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN. AS THE LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA TRAVELS DOWN THE COAST SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL INITIALLY BE
OVER THE AREA RAISING SNOW LEVELS TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY FALL TO 2500 TO 3500 FEET OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN. EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL STAY
MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
IMPACT ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER
CIGS/VIS. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR WITH RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER
EITHER 27/07 OR 27/09 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC, KPDT AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH
KPDT AND KPSC SEEING VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALSO KPDT
MAY SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD DUE TO UPSLOPE
AFFECTS. CIGS AT THESE THREE SITES WILL VARY BETWEEN 4500 AND 11000
FT AGL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. 90

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  50  30  40  30
PSC  55  36  51  31 /  30  40  30  20
YKM  52  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  53  36  49  30 /  30  50  50  30
ELN  54  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  49  31  43  23 /  40  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  46  29  41  28 /  70  60  70  60
DLS  55  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/







000
FXUS66 KPQR 261701
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
901 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES.
THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS
OF SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS
MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...THE CASCADES GOT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
ODOT REPORTED AN INCH AT SANTIAM PASS...WHICH IS AROUND 4800 FEET.
WEB CAMERAS SHOW RAIN AT SANTIAM PASS THIS MORNING SUGGESTING THE
SNOW LEVELS HAVE RISEN ABOVE 4800 FEET FOR THE NORTH OREGON
CASCADES...WHICH IS LINE WITH THIS MORNING`S FORECAST.

LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS A COOLER UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NW. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES TO THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AND ADDED THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SMALL HAIL.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA
IN COOL NW FLOW. MESOWEST OBS SHOW PCPN RATES AROUND .01 TO .03
INCHES PER 3 HOURS AND CLOSE TO 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVEL APPEARS TO BE AROUND 4500 FT PER OBS AND WEB
CAMS.  ODOT WEBCAM AT SANTIAM PASS NEAR 5000 FT HAS BEEN SHOWING
LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH THE ROAD SURFACE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY SNOW COVERED.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A 120KT NWLY
JET.  THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DETERMINE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN FALL. CURRENT MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL ALSO DROP TONIGHT REACHING AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FT
FRIDAY. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS AND COLD UPPER TROUGH
EXPECT A LOW END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE
5000 FEET. MODELS ARE SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -5C AND -15C SO THERE SHOULD BE LOTS OF SEEDS FOR GROWING
SNOWFLAKES.  ALL CASCADE PASSES WILL RECEIVE SOME SNOW TONIGHT BUT
THE HIGHER ONES ARE LIKELY TO SEE AROUND HALF A FOOT OF NEW SNOW BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH IS INSTABILITY THAT IT WILL
BRING. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES FRI NIGHT. BUT SNOW FALL RATES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS
TIME AND NOT LIKELY TO BRING ADVISORY AMOUNTS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ /MH

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT
THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
TO FEED INTO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TODAY THAT WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS GENERALLY A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR...WITH IFR/MVFR AT
THE COAST AND PATCHES OF IFR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE A MORE
ORGANIZED CLOUD SHIELD WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR MORE MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES
OF IFR MIXED IN. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY
EARLY FRIDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL VIS WITH -RA OR DZ
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH TEMPO IFR THIS MORNING. BOWEN/PT

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW SOME BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE 20 KT MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN OFFSHORE
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PICK ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 25 KT ON
SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT PROBABLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT
ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
     PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 261701
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
901 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES.
THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS
OF SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS
MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...THE CASCADES GOT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
ODOT REPORTED AN INCH AT SANTIAM PASS...WHICH IS AROUND 4800 FEET.
WEB CAMERAS SHOW RAIN AT SANTIAM PASS THIS MORNING SUGGESTING THE
SNOW LEVELS HAVE RISEN ABOVE 4800 FEET FOR THE NORTH OREGON
CASCADES...WHICH IS LINE WITH THIS MORNING`S FORECAST.

LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS A COOLER UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NW. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES TO THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AND ADDED THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SMALL HAIL.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA
IN COOL NW FLOW. MESOWEST OBS SHOW PCPN RATES AROUND .01 TO .03
INCHES PER 3 HOURS AND CLOSE TO 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVEL APPEARS TO BE AROUND 4500 FT PER OBS AND WEB
CAMS.  ODOT WEBCAM AT SANTIAM PASS NEAR 5000 FT HAS BEEN SHOWING
LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH THE ROAD SURFACE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY SNOW COVERED.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A 120KT NWLY
JET.  THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DETERMINE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN FALL. CURRENT MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL ALSO DROP TONIGHT REACHING AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FT
FRIDAY. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS AND COLD UPPER TROUGH
EXPECT A LOW END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE
5000 FEET. MODELS ARE SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -5C AND -15C SO THERE SHOULD BE LOTS OF SEEDS FOR GROWING
SNOWFLAKES.  ALL CASCADE PASSES WILL RECEIVE SOME SNOW TONIGHT BUT
THE HIGHER ONES ARE LIKELY TO SEE AROUND HALF A FOOT OF NEW SNOW BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH IS INSTABILITY THAT IT WILL
BRING. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES FRI NIGHT. BUT SNOW FALL RATES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS
TIME AND NOT LIKELY TO BRING ADVISORY AMOUNTS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ /MH

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT
THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
TO FEED INTO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TODAY THAT WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS GENERALLY A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR...WITH IFR/MVFR AT
THE COAST AND PATCHES OF IFR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE A MORE
ORGANIZED CLOUD SHIELD WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR MORE MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES
OF IFR MIXED IN. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY
EARLY FRIDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL VIS WITH -RA OR DZ
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH TEMPO IFR THIS MORNING. BOWEN/PT

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW SOME BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE 20 KT MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN OFFSHORE
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PICK ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 25 KT ON
SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT PROBABLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT
ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
     PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 261650
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
950 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING SE ACROSS
MUCH OF OWYHEE COUNTY THIS MORNING. OTHER OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN COMMON IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SRN
TWIN FALLS COUNTY AS WELL. FINALLY...SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN
THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS. WE EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY TODAY. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
INCREASE POPS IN THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. EXPECT MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS IN THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND THE
SNAKE RIVER VALLEY MAINLY EAST OF KMUO...IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR
AFTER 19Z. SNOW LEVELS 3500 FT MSL NORTH TO 5000 FT MSL SOUTH.
SURFACE WINDS... WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT...
NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOIST BUT RELATIVELY STABLE
NW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
MID- LEVEL LOW CENTER THAT CROSSES FROM COASTAL BC CANADA THIS
MORNING...TO FAR SW IDAHO LATE FRIDAY. OREGON ZONES FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE MOST /ALBEIT LIGHT/ PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT
TERM. SNOWING AT MCCALL AND A TRACE OF RAIN AT MOUNTAIN HOME BUT
SO FAR THE TREASURE VALLEY HAS BEEN DRY AT REPORTING STATIONS.
COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW UNTIL AROUND 6 AM THEN A DRY
SURGE ON WATER VAPOR CUTS OFF THE FIRST ROUND OF VALLEY PRECIP.
UNTIL THE H7 LOW BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY. VALLEY HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL QUICKLY MELT ANY SNOW THAT
OCCURS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF THE LATTER AFTER 2 PM MST. THAT WAS THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...FOR THE WEEKEND.  AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVES SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE OVER
THE REGION BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT SOME LOWER VALLEYS COULD SEE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
DECREASING POPS OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
IDAHO.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 261650
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
950 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING SE ACROSS
MUCH OF OWYHEE COUNTY THIS MORNING. OTHER OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN COMMON IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SRN
TWIN FALLS COUNTY AS WELL. FINALLY...SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN
THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS. WE EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY TODAY. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
INCREASE POPS IN THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. EXPECT MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS IN THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND THE
SNAKE RIVER VALLEY MAINLY EAST OF KMUO...IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR
AFTER 19Z. SNOW LEVELS 3500 FT MSL NORTH TO 5000 FT MSL SOUTH.
SURFACE WINDS... WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT...
NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOIST BUT RELATIVELY STABLE
NW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
MID- LEVEL LOW CENTER THAT CROSSES FROM COASTAL BC CANADA THIS
MORNING...TO FAR SW IDAHO LATE FRIDAY. OREGON ZONES FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE MOST /ALBEIT LIGHT/ PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT
TERM. SNOWING AT MCCALL AND A TRACE OF RAIN AT MOUNTAIN HOME BUT
SO FAR THE TREASURE VALLEY HAS BEEN DRY AT REPORTING STATIONS.
COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW UNTIL AROUND 6 AM THEN A DRY
SURGE ON WATER VAPOR CUTS OFF THE FIRST ROUND OF VALLEY PRECIP.
UNTIL THE H7 LOW BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY. VALLEY HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL QUICKLY MELT ANY SNOW THAT
OCCURS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF THE LATTER AFTER 2 PM MST. THAT WAS THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...FOR THE WEEKEND.  AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVES SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE OVER
THE REGION BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT SOME LOWER VALLEYS COULD SEE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
DECREASING POPS OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
IDAHO.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 261650
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
950 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING SE ACROSS
MUCH OF OWYHEE COUNTY THIS MORNING. OTHER OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN COMMON IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SRN
TWIN FALLS COUNTY AS WELL. FINALLY...SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN
THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS. WE EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY TODAY. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
INCREASE POPS IN THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. EXPECT MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS IN THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND THE
SNAKE RIVER VALLEY MAINLY EAST OF KMUO...IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR
AFTER 19Z. SNOW LEVELS 3500 FT MSL NORTH TO 5000 FT MSL SOUTH.
SURFACE WINDS... WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT...
NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOIST BUT RELATIVELY STABLE
NW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
MID- LEVEL LOW CENTER THAT CROSSES FROM COASTAL BC CANADA THIS
MORNING...TO FAR SW IDAHO LATE FRIDAY. OREGON ZONES FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE MOST /ALBEIT LIGHT/ PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT
TERM. SNOWING AT MCCALL AND A TRACE OF RAIN AT MOUNTAIN HOME BUT
SO FAR THE TREASURE VALLEY HAS BEEN DRY AT REPORTING STATIONS.
COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW UNTIL AROUND 6 AM THEN A DRY
SURGE ON WATER VAPOR CUTS OFF THE FIRST ROUND OF VALLEY PRECIP.
UNTIL THE H7 LOW BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY. VALLEY HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL QUICKLY MELT ANY SNOW THAT
OCCURS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF THE LATTER AFTER 2 PM MST. THAT WAS THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...FOR THE WEEKEND.  AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVES SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE OVER
THE REGION BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT SOME LOWER VALLEYS COULD SEE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
DECREASING POPS OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
IDAHO.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS66 KMFR 261638
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED FORECAST, AS
ALL OF THE PARAMETERS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK. WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF
EFFORTS TODAY ON THE UPCOMING SYSTEM, WITH A FOCUS ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SNOW LEVELS. RIGHT NOW, SNOW LEVELS
DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST AT AROUND 4000
FEET. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE WET BULB EFFECT
RESULTING FROM THE DRY AIR ALREADY IN THE AREA, COULD BRING THOSE
SNOW LEVELS DOWN FURTHER. THERE IS NO THREAT AT THIS TIME OF WEST
SIDE VALLEY SNOWS, BUT SEVERAL, IF NOT ALL, OF THE MAJOR PASSES IN
THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS COULD BE AFFECTED. FOR MORE
INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS TODAY WITH MVFR NOW PREVALENT ALONG THE
COAST...EXPANDING INLAND TO THE UMPQUA BASIN THIS MORNING. EXPECT
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO ALSO ACCOMPANY THE LOWERING CIGS. BY THE
AFTERNOON, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD INLAND TO THE
CASCADES WITH TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5500-6000 FT MSL. MVFR CIGS/LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE EAST SIDE AND SOME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
LOCATIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. FREEZING LEVELS WILL
DROP SHARPLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...TO ABOUT 4000 FT MSL.
-KEENE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 AM PST, THURSDAY 26 FEB, 2015...NORTH WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY. STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE BRIEFLY TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN JUST
BELOW CRITERIA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. -SK


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...BLENDED RAIN RATE SATELLITE PRODUCTS SHOW RAIN
FALLING JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST OREGON COAST IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ALL THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS AND SHOW IT ARRIVING
INTO OUR AREA SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE GFS AND NAM IN
PARTICULAR ARE QUICKER WITH BOTH SHOWING AT LEAST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SPREADING ALL THE WAY TO THE CASCADES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FUTHERMORE, THE 26/00Z RAOB AT MEDFORD SHOWED THE
AIRMASS HAS MOISTENED A LOT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, SO PRECIPITATION
SHOULDN`T HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. LAST EVENING`S SHIFT
INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEST SIDE TODAY, AND GIVEN
THE ABOVE, THIS LOOKS GOOD.

DEEP, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW AIDED BY A 110KT UPPER JET CONTINUES
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AND THUS AT LEAST INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE FROM THE CASCADES WEST WITH SOME SPILLOVER ONTO
THE EAST SIDE. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH SNOW FALLING
DOWN TO MOST HIGHER PASSES BY FRIDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS OF B.C. WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND DIG WESTWARD
ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION RATES AND
ALSO BRING COLDER AIR WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. THE 500 MB COLD
POOL IS APPROACHING -30C ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY CONVECTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE. WE
SHOULD SEE OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS
ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN
SMALL HAIL ON THE WEST SIDE. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT 3-6 INCHES OF
SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM, MOST OF
WHICH SHOULD COME FRIDAY. SNOW WILL ALSO MAKE IT ACROSS THE
CASCADES WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ON THE EAST SIDE. WE
ALREADY HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OUT (PDXSPSMFR) WHICH
GIVES DETAILS. WHILE WE MAY NEED SOME WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS EAST SIDE FOR FRIDAY, WE HAVE OPTED TO
WAIT ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE MAKING THOSE DECISIONS. A
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY LIKE THIS DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IN OUR CALIFORNIA ZONES, BUT THEY WILL CERTAINLY SEE SOME VALLEY
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WITH THIS STORM AS WELL.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED. THE WEEKEND WILL
LIKELY BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN. THEN
ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4
     AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

BPN/TRW/NSK



000
FXUS66 KMFR 261638
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED FORECAST, AS
ALL OF THE PARAMETERS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK. WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF
EFFORTS TODAY ON THE UPCOMING SYSTEM, WITH A FOCUS ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SNOW LEVELS. RIGHT NOW, SNOW LEVELS
DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST AT AROUND 4000
FEET. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE WET BULB EFFECT
RESULTING FROM THE DRY AIR ALREADY IN THE AREA, COULD BRING THOSE
SNOW LEVELS DOWN FURTHER. THERE IS NO THREAT AT THIS TIME OF WEST
SIDE VALLEY SNOWS, BUT SEVERAL, IF NOT ALL, OF THE MAJOR PASSES IN
THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS COULD BE AFFECTED. FOR MORE
INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS TODAY WITH MVFR NOW PREVALENT ALONG THE
COAST...EXPANDING INLAND TO THE UMPQUA BASIN THIS MORNING. EXPECT
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO ALSO ACCOMPANY THE LOWERING CIGS. BY THE
AFTERNOON, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD INLAND TO THE
CASCADES WITH TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5500-6000 FT MSL. MVFR CIGS/LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE EAST SIDE AND SOME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
LOCATIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. FREEZING LEVELS WILL
DROP SHARPLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...TO ABOUT 4000 FT MSL.
-KEENE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 AM PST, THURSDAY 26 FEB, 2015...NORTH WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY. STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE BRIEFLY TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN JUST
BELOW CRITERIA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. -SK


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...BLENDED RAIN RATE SATELLITE PRODUCTS SHOW RAIN
FALLING JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST OREGON COAST IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ALL THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS AND SHOW IT ARRIVING
INTO OUR AREA SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE GFS AND NAM IN
PARTICULAR ARE QUICKER WITH BOTH SHOWING AT LEAST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SPREADING ALL THE WAY TO THE CASCADES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FUTHERMORE, THE 26/00Z RAOB AT MEDFORD SHOWED THE
AIRMASS HAS MOISTENED A LOT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, SO PRECIPITATION
SHOULDN`T HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. LAST EVENING`S SHIFT
INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEST SIDE TODAY, AND GIVEN
THE ABOVE, THIS LOOKS GOOD.

DEEP, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW AIDED BY A 110KT UPPER JET CONTINUES
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AND THUS AT LEAST INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE FROM THE CASCADES WEST WITH SOME SPILLOVER ONTO
THE EAST SIDE. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH SNOW FALLING
DOWN TO MOST HIGHER PASSES BY FRIDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS OF B.C. WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND DIG WESTWARD
ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION RATES AND
ALSO BRING COLDER AIR WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. THE 500 MB COLD
POOL IS APPROACHING -30C ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY CONVECTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE. WE
SHOULD SEE OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS
ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN
SMALL HAIL ON THE WEST SIDE. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT 3-6 INCHES OF
SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM, MOST OF
WHICH SHOULD COME FRIDAY. SNOW WILL ALSO MAKE IT ACROSS THE
CASCADES WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ON THE EAST SIDE. WE
ALREADY HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OUT (PDXSPSMFR) WHICH
GIVES DETAILS. WHILE WE MAY NEED SOME WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS EAST SIDE FOR FRIDAY, WE HAVE OPTED TO
WAIT ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE MAKING THOSE DECISIONS. A
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY LIKE THIS DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IN OUR CALIFORNIA ZONES, BUT THEY WILL CERTAINLY SEE SOME VALLEY
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WITH THIS STORM AS WELL.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED. THE WEEKEND WILL
LIKELY BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN. THEN
ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4
     AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

BPN/TRW/NSK



000
FXUS66 KPDT 261632
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
833 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. FROM
MEACHAM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND INTO THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
AND GRANT COUNTY...ELEVATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND
ANY PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN. AS THE LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA TRAVELS DOWN THE COAST SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL INITIALLY BE
OVER THE AREA RAISING SNOW LEVELS TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY FALL TO 2500 TO 3500 FEET OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN. EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL STAY
MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  COBB

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BKN-OVC SKIES AT 5000-9000
FEET AGL. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT
KPDT AND KALW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER
00Z WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THOSE LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST 4-6SM
VISIBILITIES AT KDLS AND KYKM AND HAVE INDICATED THAT IN THE TAFS
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FURTHER EAST SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  50  30  40  30
PSC  55  36  51  31 /  30  40  30  20
YKM  52  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  53  36  49  30 /  30  50  50  30
ELN  54  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  49  31  43  23 /  40  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  46  29  41  28 /  70  60  70  60
DLS  55  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/








000
FXUS66 KPDT 261632
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
833 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. FROM
MEACHAM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND INTO THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
AND GRANT COUNTY...ELEVATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND
ANY PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN. AS THE LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA TRAVELS DOWN THE COAST SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL INITIALLY BE
OVER THE AREA RAISING SNOW LEVELS TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY FALL TO 2500 TO 3500 FEET OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN. EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL STAY
MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  COBB

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BKN-OVC SKIES AT 5000-9000
FEET AGL. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT
KPDT AND KALW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER
00Z WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THOSE LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST 4-6SM
VISIBILITIES AT KDLS AND KYKM AND HAVE INDICATED THAT IN THE TAFS
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FURTHER EAST SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  50  30  40  30
PSC  55  36  51  31 /  30  40  30  20
YKM  52  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  53  36  49  30 /  30  50  50  30
ELN  54  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  49  31  43  23 /  40  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  46  29  41  28 /  70  60  70  60
DLS  55  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/








000
FXUS66 KPDT 261156 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BKN-OVC SKIES AT 5000-9000
FEET AGL. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT
KPDT AND KALW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER
00Z WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THOSE LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST 4-6SM
VISIBILITIES AT KDLS AND KYKM AND HAVE INDICATED THAT IN THE TAFS
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FURTHER EAST SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  80  30  40  30
PSC  53  36  51  31 /  40  40  30  20
YKM  50  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  51  36  49  30 /  50  50  50  30
ELN  50  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  45  31  43  23 /  50  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  43  29  41  28 /  60  60  70  60
DLS  52  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83






000
FXUS66 KPDT 261156 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BKN-OVC SKIES AT 5000-9000
FEET AGL. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT
KPDT AND KALW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER
00Z WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THOSE LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST 4-6SM
VISIBILITIES AT KDLS AND KYKM AND HAVE INDICATED THAT IN THE TAFS
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FURTHER EAST SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  80  30  40  30
PSC  53  36  51  31 /  40  40  30  20
YKM  50  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  51  36  49  30 /  50  50  50  30
ELN  50  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  45  31  43  23 /  50  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  43  29  41  28 /  60  60  70  60
DLS  52  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 261156 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BKN-OVC SKIES AT 5000-9000
FEET AGL. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT
KPDT AND KALW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER
00Z WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THOSE LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST 4-6SM
VISIBILITIES AT KDLS AND KYKM AND HAVE INDICATED THAT IN THE TAFS
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FURTHER EAST SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  80  30  40  30
PSC  53  36  51  31 /  40  40  30  20
YKM  50  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  51  36  49  30 /  50  50  50  30
ELN  50  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  45  31  43  23 /  50  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  43  29  41  28 /  60  60  70  60
DLS  52  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83






000
FXUS66 KPDT 261156 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BKN-OVC SKIES AT 5000-9000
FEET AGL. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT
KPDT AND KALW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER
00Z WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THOSE LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST 4-6SM
VISIBILITIES AT KDLS AND KYKM AND HAVE INDICATED THAT IN THE TAFS
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FURTHER EAST SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  80  30  40  30
PSC  53  36  51  31 /  40  40  30  20
YKM  50  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  51  36  49  30 /  50  50  50  30
ELN  50  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  45  31  43  23 /  50  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  43  29  41  28 /  60  60  70  60
DLS  52  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83






000
FXUS66 KPDT 261156 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BKN-OVC SKIES AT 5000-9000
FEET AGL. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT
KPDT AND KALW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER
00Z WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THOSE LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST 4-6SM
VISIBILITIES AT KDLS AND KYKM AND HAVE INDICATED THAT IN THE TAFS
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FURTHER EAST SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  80  30  40  30
PSC  53  36  51  31 /  40  40  30  20
YKM  50  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  51  36  49  30 /  50  50  50  30
ELN  50  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  45  31  43  23 /  50  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  43  29  41  28 /  60  60  70  60
DLS  52  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83






000
FXUS66 KPDT 261156 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BKN-OVC SKIES AT 5000-9000
FEET AGL. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT
KPDT AND KALW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER
00Z WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THOSE LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST 4-6SM
VISIBILITIES AT KDLS AND KYKM AND HAVE INDICATED THAT IN THE TAFS
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FURTHER EAST SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  80  30  40  30
PSC  53  36  51  31 /  40  40  30  20
YKM  50  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  51  36  49  30 /  50  50  50  30
ELN  50  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  45  31  43  23 /  50  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  43  29  41  28 /  60  60  70  60
DLS  52  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83






000
FXUS66 KPQR 261109
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
302 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES.
THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS
OF SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS
MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA IN COOL
NW FLOW. MESOWEST OBS SHOW PCPN RATES AROUND .01 TO .03 INCHES PER 3
HOURS AND CLOSE TO 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVEL APPEARS TO BE AROUND 4500 FT PER OBS AND WEB CAMS.  ODOT
WEBCAM AT SANTIAM PASS NEAR 5000 FT HAS BEEN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH THE ROAD SURFACE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY SNOW COVERED.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A 120KT NWLY
JET.  THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DETERMINE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN FALL. CURRENT MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL ALSO DROP TONIGHT REACHING AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FT
FRIDAY. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS AND COLD UPPER TROUGH
EXPECT A LOW END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE
5000 FEET. MODELS ARE SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -5C AND -15C SO THERE SHOULD BE LOTS OF SEEDS FOR GROWING
SNOWFLAKES.  ALL CASCADE PASSES WILL RECEIVE SOME SNOW TONIGHT BUT
THE HIGHER ONES ARE LIKELY TO SEE AROUND HALF A FOOT OF NEW SNOW BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH IS INSTABILITY THAT IT WILL
BRING. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES FRI NIGHT. BUT SNOW FALL RATES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS
TIME AND NOT LIKELY TO BRING ADVISORY AMOUNTS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ /MH

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT
THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/27
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON MUCH OF TODAY
THAT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW PATCHES OF IFR THIS MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE THE MORE
ORGANIZED CLOUD SHIELD CROSSING 130W THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD IN DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT FOR MORE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...
AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF IFR MIXED IN. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE MVFR THIS MORNING.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LIFT TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LOWER BACK TO MVFR AS THE NEXT CLOUD
SHIELD AND PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PT
&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW SOME BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE 20 KT MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN OFFSHORE
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PICK ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 25 KT ON
SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT PROBABLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT
ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES
     ABOVE 5000 FEET.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
     4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 261109
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
302 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES.
THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS
OF SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS
MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA IN COOL
NW FLOW. MESOWEST OBS SHOW PCPN RATES AROUND .01 TO .03 INCHES PER 3
HOURS AND CLOSE TO 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVEL APPEARS TO BE AROUND 4500 FT PER OBS AND WEB CAMS.  ODOT
WEBCAM AT SANTIAM PASS NEAR 5000 FT HAS BEEN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH THE ROAD SURFACE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY SNOW COVERED.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A 120KT NWLY
JET.  THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DETERMINE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN FALL. CURRENT MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL ALSO DROP TONIGHT REACHING AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FT
FRIDAY. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS AND COLD UPPER TROUGH
EXPECT A LOW END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE
5000 FEET. MODELS ARE SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -5C AND -15C SO THERE SHOULD BE LOTS OF SEEDS FOR GROWING
SNOWFLAKES.  ALL CASCADE PASSES WILL RECEIVE SOME SNOW TONIGHT BUT
THE HIGHER ONES ARE LIKELY TO SEE AROUND HALF A FOOT OF NEW SNOW BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH IS INSTABILITY THAT IT WILL
BRING. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES FRI NIGHT. BUT SNOW FALL RATES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS
TIME AND NOT LIKELY TO BRING ADVISORY AMOUNTS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ /MH

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT
THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/27
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON MUCH OF TODAY
THAT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW PATCHES OF IFR THIS MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE THE MORE
ORGANIZED CLOUD SHIELD CROSSING 130W THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD IN DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT FOR MORE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...
AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF IFR MIXED IN. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE MVFR THIS MORNING.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LIFT TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LOWER BACK TO MVFR AS THE NEXT CLOUD
SHIELD AND PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PT
&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW SOME BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE 20 KT MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN OFFSHORE
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PICK ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 25 KT ON
SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT PROBABLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT
ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES
     ABOVE 5000 FEET.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
     4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 261109
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
302 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES.
THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS
OF SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS
MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA IN COOL
NW FLOW. MESOWEST OBS SHOW PCPN RATES AROUND .01 TO .03 INCHES PER 3
HOURS AND CLOSE TO 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVEL APPEARS TO BE AROUND 4500 FT PER OBS AND WEB CAMS.  ODOT
WEBCAM AT SANTIAM PASS NEAR 5000 FT HAS BEEN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH THE ROAD SURFACE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY SNOW COVERED.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A 120KT NWLY
JET.  THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DETERMINE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN FALL. CURRENT MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL ALSO DROP TONIGHT REACHING AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FT
FRIDAY. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS AND COLD UPPER TROUGH
EXPECT A LOW END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE
5000 FEET. MODELS ARE SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -5C AND -15C SO THERE SHOULD BE LOTS OF SEEDS FOR GROWING
SNOWFLAKES.  ALL CASCADE PASSES WILL RECEIVE SOME SNOW TONIGHT BUT
THE HIGHER ONES ARE LIKELY TO SEE AROUND HALF A FOOT OF NEW SNOW BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH IS INSTABILITY THAT IT WILL
BRING. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES FRI NIGHT. BUT SNOW FALL RATES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS
TIME AND NOT LIKELY TO BRING ADVISORY AMOUNTS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ /MH

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT
THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/27
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON MUCH OF TODAY
THAT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW PATCHES OF IFR THIS MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE THE MORE
ORGANIZED CLOUD SHIELD CROSSING 130W THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD IN DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT FOR MORE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...
AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF IFR MIXED IN. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE MVFR THIS MORNING.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LIFT TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LOWER BACK TO MVFR AS THE NEXT CLOUD
SHIELD AND PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PT
&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW SOME BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE 20 KT MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN OFFSHORE
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PICK ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 25 KT ON
SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT PROBABLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT
ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES
     ABOVE 5000 FEET.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
     4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 261100
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CIGS
AT MOST TAF SITES TONIGHT AS BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.  THIS POTENTIAL FOR LOWERED CATEGORIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z  WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.  ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWERED CATEGORIES AGAIN.  WINDS ARE STILL A BIT BREEZY 15KTS AT
KPDT...BUT OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS FOR THE TAF
PERIOD.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  80  30  40  30
PSC  53  36  51  31 /  40  40  30  20
YKM  50  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  51  36  49  30 /  50  50  50  30
ELN  50  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  45  31  43  23 /  50  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  43  29  41  28 /  60  60  70  60
DLS  52  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83











000
FXUS66 KPDT 261100
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CIGS
AT MOST TAF SITES TONIGHT AS BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.  THIS POTENTIAL FOR LOWERED CATEGORIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z  WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.  ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWERED CATEGORIES AGAIN.  WINDS ARE STILL A BIT BREEZY 15KTS AT
KPDT...BUT OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS FOR THE TAF
PERIOD.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  80  30  40  30
PSC  53  36  51  31 /  40  40  30  20
YKM  50  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  51  36  49  30 /  50  50  50  30
ELN  50  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  45  31  43  23 /  50  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  43  29  41  28 /  60  60  70  60
DLS  52  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83












000
FXUS66 KPDT 261100
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CIGS
AT MOST TAF SITES TONIGHT AS BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.  THIS POTENTIAL FOR LOWERED CATEGORIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z  WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.  ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWERED CATEGORIES AGAIN.  WINDS ARE STILL A BIT BREEZY 15KTS AT
KPDT...BUT OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS FOR THE TAF
PERIOD.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  80  30  40  30
PSC  53  36  51  31 /  40  40  30  20
YKM  50  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  51  36  49  30 /  50  50  50  30
ELN  50  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  45  31  43  23 /  50  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  43  29  41  28 /  60  60  70  60
DLS  52  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83











000
FXUS66 KPDT 261100
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CIGS
AT MOST TAF SITES TONIGHT AS BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.  THIS POTENTIAL FOR LOWERED CATEGORIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z  WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.  ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWERED CATEGORIES AGAIN.  WINDS ARE STILL A BIT BREEZY 15KTS AT
KPDT...BUT OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS FOR THE TAF
PERIOD.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  80  30  40  30
PSC  53  36  51  31 /  40  40  30  20
YKM  50  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  51  36  49  30 /  50  50  50  30
ELN  50  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  45  31  43  23 /  50  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  43  29  41  28 /  60  60  70  60
DLS  52  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83












000
FXUS66 KMFR 261037
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
237 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...BLENDED RAIN RATE SATELLITE PRODUCTS SHOW RAIN
FALLING JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST OREGON COAST IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ALL THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS AND SHOW IT ARRIVING
INTO OUR AREA SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE GFS AND NAM IN
PARTICULAR ARE QUICKER WITH BOTH SHOWING AT LEAST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SPREADING ALL THE WAY TO THE CASCADES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FUTHERMORE, THE 26/00Z RAOB AT MEDFORD SHOWED THE
AIRMASS HAS MOISTENED A LOT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, SO PRECIPITATION
SHOULDN`T HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. LAST EVENING`S SHIFT
INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEST SIDE TODAY, AND GIVEN
THE ABOVE, THIS LOOKS GOOD.

DEEP, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW AIDED BY A 110KT UPPER JET CONTINUES
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AND THUS AT LEAST INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE FROM THE CASCADES WEST WITH SOME SPILLOVER ONTO
THE EAST SIDE. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH SNOW FALLING
DOWN TO MOST HIGHER PASSES BY FRIDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS OF B.C. WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND DIG WESTWARD
ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION RATES AND
ALSO BRING COLDER AIR WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. THE 500 MB COLD
POOL IS APPROACHING -30C ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY CONVECTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE. WE
SHOULD SEE OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS
ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN
SMALL HAIL ON THE WEST SIDE. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT 3-6 INCHES OF
SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM, MOST OF
WHICH SHOULD COME FRIDAY. SNOW WILL ALSO MAKE IT ACROSS THE
CASCADES WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ON THE EAST SIDE. WE
ALREADY HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OUT (PDXSPSMFR) WHICH
GIVES DETAILS. WHILE WE MAY NEED SOME WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS EAST SIDE FOR FRIDAY, WE HAVE OPTED TO
WAIT ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE MAKING THOSE DECISIONS. A
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY LIKE THIS DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IN OUR CALIFORNIA ZONES, BUT THEY WILL CERTAINLY SEE SOME VALLEY
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WITH THIS STORM AS WELL.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED. THE WEEKEND WILL
LIKELY BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN. THEN
ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MVFR
BECOMING PREVALENT ALONG THE COAST AFTER 09Z AND THEN INTO THE
UMPQUA BASIN AFTER 12Z. EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE LOWERING CIGS. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CIGS TO SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES WITH TERRAIN BECOMING
OBSCURED IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE AROUND
5500-6000 FT MSL. MVFR CIGS/LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE EAST
SIDE AND SOME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LOCATIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 2 AM PST, THURSDAY 26 FEB, 2015...NORTH WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO WESTERLY TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY. STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE BRIEFLY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN JUST BELOW
CRITERIA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
    10 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
    PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 261037
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
237 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...BLENDED RAIN RATE SATELLITE PRODUCTS SHOW RAIN
FALLING JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST OREGON COAST IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ALL THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS AND SHOW IT ARRIVING
INTO OUR AREA SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE GFS AND NAM IN
PARTICULAR ARE QUICKER WITH BOTH SHOWING AT LEAST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SPREADING ALL THE WAY TO THE CASCADES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FUTHERMORE, THE 26/00Z RAOB AT MEDFORD SHOWED THE
AIRMASS HAS MOISTENED A LOT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, SO PRECIPITATION
SHOULDN`T HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. LAST EVENING`S SHIFT
INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEST SIDE TODAY, AND GIVEN
THE ABOVE, THIS LOOKS GOOD.

DEEP, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW AIDED BY A 110KT UPPER JET CONTINUES
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AND THUS AT LEAST INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE FROM THE CASCADES WEST WITH SOME SPILLOVER ONTO
THE EAST SIDE. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH SNOW FALLING
DOWN TO MOST HIGHER PASSES BY FRIDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS OF B.C. WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND DIG WESTWARD
ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION RATES AND
ALSO BRING COLDER AIR WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. THE 500 MB COLD
POOL IS APPROACHING -30C ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY CONVECTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE. WE
SHOULD SEE OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS
ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN
SMALL HAIL ON THE WEST SIDE. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT 3-6 INCHES OF
SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM, MOST OF
WHICH SHOULD COME FRIDAY. SNOW WILL ALSO MAKE IT ACROSS THE
CASCADES WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ON THE EAST SIDE. WE
ALREADY HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OUT (PDXSPSMFR) WHICH
GIVES DETAILS. WHILE WE MAY NEED SOME WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS EAST SIDE FOR FRIDAY, WE HAVE OPTED TO
WAIT ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE MAKING THOSE DECISIONS. A
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY LIKE THIS DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IN OUR CALIFORNIA ZONES, BUT THEY WILL CERTAINLY SEE SOME VALLEY
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WITH THIS STORM AS WELL.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED. THE WEEKEND WILL
LIKELY BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN. THEN
ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MVFR
BECOMING PREVALENT ALONG THE COAST AFTER 09Z AND THEN INTO THE
UMPQUA BASIN AFTER 12Z. EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE LOWERING CIGS. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CIGS TO SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES WITH TERRAIN BECOMING
OBSCURED IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE AROUND
5500-6000 FT MSL. MVFR CIGS/LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE EAST
SIDE AND SOME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LOCATIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 2 AM PST, THURSDAY 26 FEB, 2015...NORTH WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO WESTERLY TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY. STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE BRIEFLY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN JUST BELOW
CRITERIA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
    10 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
    PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$



000
FXUS65 KBOI 261032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOIST BUT RELATIVELY STABLE
NW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
MID- LEVEL LOW CENTER THAT CROSSES FROM COASTAL BC CANADA THIS
MORNING...TO FAR SW IDAHO LATE FRIDAY. OREGON ZONES FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE MOST /ALBEIT LIGHT/ PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT
TERM. SNOWING AT MCCALL AND A TRACE OF RAIN AT MOUNTAIN HOME BUT
SO FAR THE TREASURE VALLEY HAS BEEN DRY AT REPORTING STATIONS.
COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW UNTIL AROUND 6 AM THEN A DRY
SURGE ON WATER VAPOR CUTS OFF THE FIRST ROUND OF VALLEY PRECIP.
UNTIL THE H7 LOW BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY. VALLEY HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL QUICKLY MELT ANY SNOW THAT
OCCURS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF THE LATTER AFTER 2 PM MST. THAT WAS THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...FOR THE WEEKEND.  AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVES SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE OVER
THE REGION BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT SOME LOWER VALLEYS COULD SEE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
DECREASING POPS OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
IDAHO.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.  MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ABOVE 5K FEET MSL WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
BELOW 5K FEET MSL.  SNOW LEVELS 3K TO 4K FEET MSL.  SURFACE WINDS
WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY AROUND
20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 261032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOIST BUT RELATIVELY STABLE
NW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
MID- LEVEL LOW CENTER THAT CROSSES FROM COASTAL BC CANADA THIS
MORNING...TO FAR SW IDAHO LATE FRIDAY. OREGON ZONES FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE MOST /ALBEIT LIGHT/ PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT
TERM. SNOWING AT MCCALL AND A TRACE OF RAIN AT MOUNTAIN HOME BUT
SO FAR THE TREASURE VALLEY HAS BEEN DRY AT REPORTING STATIONS.
COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW UNTIL AROUND 6 AM THEN A DRY
SURGE ON WATER VAPOR CUTS OFF THE FIRST ROUND OF VALLEY PRECIP.
UNTIL THE H7 LOW BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY. VALLEY HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL QUICKLY MELT ANY SNOW THAT
OCCURS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF THE LATTER AFTER 2 PM MST. THAT WAS THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...FOR THE WEEKEND.  AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVES SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE OVER
THE REGION BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT SOME LOWER VALLEYS COULD SEE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
DECREASING POPS OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
IDAHO.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.  MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ABOVE 5K FEET MSL WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
BELOW 5K FEET MSL.  SNOW LEVELS 3K TO 4K FEET MSL.  SURFACE WINDS
WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY AROUND
20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 261032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOIST BUT RELATIVELY STABLE
NW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
MID- LEVEL LOW CENTER THAT CROSSES FROM COASTAL BC CANADA THIS
MORNING...TO FAR SW IDAHO LATE FRIDAY. OREGON ZONES FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE MOST /ALBEIT LIGHT/ PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT
TERM. SNOWING AT MCCALL AND A TRACE OF RAIN AT MOUNTAIN HOME BUT
SO FAR THE TREASURE VALLEY HAS BEEN DRY AT REPORTING STATIONS.
COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW UNTIL AROUND 6 AM THEN A DRY
SURGE ON WATER VAPOR CUTS OFF THE FIRST ROUND OF VALLEY PRECIP.
UNTIL THE H7 LOW BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY. VALLEY HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL QUICKLY MELT ANY SNOW THAT
OCCURS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF THE LATTER AFTER 2 PM MST. THAT WAS THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...FOR THE WEEKEND.  AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVES SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE OVER
THE REGION BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT SOME LOWER VALLEYS COULD SEE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
DECREASING POPS OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
IDAHO.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.  MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ABOVE 5K FEET MSL WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
BELOW 5K FEET MSL.  SNOW LEVELS 3K TO 4K FEET MSL.  SURFACE WINDS
WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY AROUND
20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 261032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOIST BUT RELATIVELY STABLE
NW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
MID- LEVEL LOW CENTER THAT CROSSES FROM COASTAL BC CANADA THIS
MORNING...TO FAR SW IDAHO LATE FRIDAY. OREGON ZONES FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE MOST /ALBEIT LIGHT/ PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT
TERM. SNOWING AT MCCALL AND A TRACE OF RAIN AT MOUNTAIN HOME BUT
SO FAR THE TREASURE VALLEY HAS BEEN DRY AT REPORTING STATIONS.
COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW UNTIL AROUND 6 AM THEN A DRY
SURGE ON WATER VAPOR CUTS OFF THE FIRST ROUND OF VALLEY PRECIP.
UNTIL THE H7 LOW BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY. VALLEY HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL QUICKLY MELT ANY SNOW THAT
OCCURS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF THE LATTER AFTER 2 PM MST. THAT WAS THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...FOR THE WEEKEND.  AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVES SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE OVER
THE REGION BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT SOME LOWER VALLEYS COULD SEE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
DECREASING POPS OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
IDAHO.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.  MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ABOVE 5K FEET MSL WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
BELOW 5K FEET MSL.  SNOW LEVELS 3K TO 4K FEET MSL.  SURFACE WINDS
WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY AROUND
20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 261032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOIST BUT RELATIVELY STABLE
NW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
MID- LEVEL LOW CENTER THAT CROSSES FROM COASTAL BC CANADA THIS
MORNING...TO FAR SW IDAHO LATE FRIDAY. OREGON ZONES FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE MOST /ALBEIT LIGHT/ PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT
TERM. SNOWING AT MCCALL AND A TRACE OF RAIN AT MOUNTAIN HOME BUT
SO FAR THE TREASURE VALLEY HAS BEEN DRY AT REPORTING STATIONS.
COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW UNTIL AROUND 6 AM THEN A DRY
SURGE ON WATER VAPOR CUTS OFF THE FIRST ROUND OF VALLEY PRECIP.
UNTIL THE H7 LOW BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY. VALLEY HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL QUICKLY MELT ANY SNOW THAT
OCCURS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF THE LATTER AFTER 2 PM MST. THAT WAS THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...FOR THE WEEKEND.  AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVES SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE OVER
THE REGION BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT SOME LOWER VALLEYS COULD SEE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
DECREASING POPS OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
IDAHO.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.  MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ABOVE 5K FEET MSL WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
BELOW 5K FEET MSL.  SNOW LEVELS 3K TO 4K FEET MSL.  SURFACE WINDS
WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY AROUND
20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




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