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000
FXUS66 KMFR 241123
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
423 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/12Z TAF CYCLE...A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING, BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN CURRENTLY LIES ALONG THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER AND WILL
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS AND VIS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING, BUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER PERIODS OF RAIN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AT
ALL TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE
RAIN ENDS, GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 350 AM PDT FRI 24 OCT 2014...THE MODELS ARE
STARTING TO SETTLE ON A TRACK FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOW PRESSURE
OUT NEAR 135W WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND THEN MOVE BY PROBABLY JUST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO ON SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS THIS MORNING,
THEN WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT
AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND THEN REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY.

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH END GALES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, AND SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. HOW LONG INTO SATURDAY THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUE WILL
DEPEND ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST AND BEGIN TO EASE IN THE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE, BUT THE IMPORTANT POINT IS
THAT AT LEAST 12-18 HOURS OF STRONG GALES TO LOW END STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE NEARLY CERTAIN OVER MUCH OF OUR WATERS. VERY STEEP AND
CHAOTIC SEAS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WINDS.

THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN SUNDAY, BUT ANOTHER FRONT MAY AFFECT THE
WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IS NOW LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND STEADY
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MOVING NORTH. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH AND AS IT DOES PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE, THEN END FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES COULD END UP MILDER THAN WHAT`S IN
THE FORECAST.

OUR NEXT ATTENTION WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES...SHASTA VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
ROGUE VALLEY. MODELS ALL SHOW INCREASING 700 MB WINDS INCREASING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
OUT BETWEEN 65-75 KTS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THEN DECREASING LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THEREFORE WE`LL BE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND
ADVISORIES FOR EAST OF THE CASCADES...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
THE SHASTA VALLEY. ALSO A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
PARTS OF THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. IN ADDITION THE NAM INDICATES
THAT A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH 35
TO 45 KT SOUTH WINDS AT 850 MB FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
SOUTHERN OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS INTO WESTERN VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
ROGUE VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW A WEAK INVERSION EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, SO IT`S POSSIBLE WINDS COULD START OUT LIGHT, BUT THEY WILL
INCREASE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY. DETAILS ON ALL OF THE WIND PRODUCTS CAN BE FOUND AT
NPWMFR.

ALONG THE COAST, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND
WARNING LEVELS BUT COASTAL HEADLANDS MAY EXPERIENCE HIGH WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION, TO WIND IMPACTS, THIS STRONG LOW WILL BRING RAIN
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ALSO COLD AIR ALOFT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS WELL ON SATURDAY. OF NOTE IS THAT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR MAY BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT.

POST FRONTAL SOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
MOST SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS
WILL ALSO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN ON SUNDAY. A BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES, THEN
ANOTHER FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE
COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ029>031.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ028.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ026.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ082.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ081.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$








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000
FXUS66 KPDT 241116
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
415 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND IT AND UP THROUGH THE CWA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DIG A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST BY LATE FRIDAY AND
THEN WILL SWING UP THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS OFF THE COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH A BREAK TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.
THEN ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY
WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN
UP SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT WINDS WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH WIND ADVISORY
SPEEDS. RIGHT NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS ABOUT THIS BUT IT WILL BECOME WINDY IN MOST AREAS IN ANY
CASE AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY COOL
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY EVENING WILL TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
OTHER THAN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN CONSIDERABLY AS A STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW TAKES OVER RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME
WILL RANGE FROM 6000-7000 FEET.  THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ONCE
AGAIN DIVERGING BY DAY 6...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW BASED ON THE HIGH
DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE RUNS. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE MID WEEK. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS.  FORECASTING CIGS AND VSBYS WAS A CHALLENGE
FOR THE 12Z TAFS.  BELIEVE RAIN TODAY WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE
CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR...AND LOCALLY IFR.  RAIN WILL SOON
DEVELOP AT KRDM AND KBDN THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD TO THE OR/WA BORDER
BY 18Z THEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON BY NOON.  THERE WILL BE
CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THAT MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS CLOUDS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RADIATIONAL FOG AT KPSC BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY.  AN EASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT THROUGH THE EASTERN
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE TO DEVELOP
STRATUS CLOUDS AT KDLS OVERNIGHT.  WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  46  59  45 /  50  30  20  30
ALW  59  49  60  49 /  50  50  20  30
PSC  59  45  62  48 /  20  60  20  30
YKM  55  40  56  41 /  20  60  30  40
HRI  58  43  62  46 /  40  50  20  30
ELN  53  39  56  40 /  10  70  30  40
RDM  55  38  58  36 /  70  20  20  40
LGD  54  43  63  44 /  70  20  20  30
GCD  57  42  62  42 /  70  10  20  40
DLS  57  45  60  47 /  70  60  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85







000
FXUS66 KMFR 241116
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
416 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IS NOW LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND STEADY
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MOVING NORTH. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH AND AS IT DOES PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE, THEN END FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES COULD END UP MILDER THAN WHAT`S IN
THE FORECAST.

OUR NEXT ATTENTION WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES...SHASTA VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
ROGUE VALLEY. MODELS ALL SHOW INCREASING 700 MB WINDS INCREASING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
OUT BETWEEN 65-75 KTS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THEN DECREASING LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THEREFORE WE`LL BE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND
ADVISORIES FOR EAST OF THE CASCADES...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
THE SHASTA VALLEY. ALSO A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
PARTS OF THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. IN ADDITION THE NAM INDICATES
THAT A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH 35
TO 45 KT SOUTH WINDS AT 850 MB FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
SOUTHERN OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS INTO WESTERN VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
ROGUE VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW A WEAK INVERSION EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, SO IT`S POSSIBLE WINDS COULD START OUT LIGHT, BUT THEY WILL
INCREASE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY. DETAILS ON ALL OF THE WIND PRODUCTS CAN BE FOUND AT
NPWMFR.

ALONG THE COAST, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND
WARNING LEVELS BUT COASTAL HEADLANDS MAY EXPERIENCE HIGH WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION, TO WIND IMPACTS, THIS STRONG LOW WILL BRING RAIN
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ALSO COLD AIR ALOFT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS WELL ON SATURDAY. OF NOTE IS THAT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR MAY BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT.

POST FRONTAL SOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
MOST SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS
WILL ALSO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN ON SUNDAY. A BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES, THEN
ANOTHER FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE
COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/06Z TAF CYCLE...
A STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN  SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN JACKSON, KLAMATH, AND LAKE
COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE
A CONTINUED  FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY. THE FRONTAL  BAND WILL BRING MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITY FOR
MANY AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED IFR CIGS. ALSO EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN  OBSCURATIONS FROM THE CASCADES WEST WITH AREAS
OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES IN THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE  TO VFR FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA IN BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A CHANCE FOR
CONTINUED RAIN ALONG THE COOS AND DOUGLAS COAST.  OVERALL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING EXPECT  VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA.  CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VIS THIS MORNING IS LOW TO MODERATE DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS NORTH. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 350 AM PDT FRI 24 OCT 2014...THE MODELS ARE
STARTING TO SETTLE ON A TRACK FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOW PRESSURE
OUT NEAR 135W WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND THEN MOVE BY PROBABLY JUST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO ON SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS THIS MORNING,
THEN WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT
AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND THEN REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY.

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH END GALES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, AND SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. HOW LONG INTO SATURDAY THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUE WILL
DEPEND ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST AND BEGIN TO EASE IN THE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE, BUT THE IMPORTANT POINT IS
THAT AT LEAST 12-18 HOURS OF STRONG GALES TO LOW END STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE NEARLY CERTAIN OVER MUCH OF OUR WATERS. VERY STEEP AND
CHAOTIC SEAS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WINDS.

THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN SUNDAY, BUT ANOTHER FRONT MAY AFFECT THE
WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ029>031.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ028.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ026.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ082.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ081.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$






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000
FXUS66 KPQR 241002
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
302 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO SW OREGON
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY EASED THIS MORNING BUT STRATIFORM RAIN WILL
RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NORTH
ZONES SHOULD BE DRY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

A LOW WELL OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW...AND THE GFS HAS CONSOLIDATED THE SYSTEM INTO ONE
SINGLE LOW INSTEAD OF AN ELONGATED TWO...THERE ARE STILL
DISCREPANCIES ON THE STRENGTH. RAIN IS CERTAIN BASED ON THE TRACK BUT
WINDS WILL DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER IN THAT REGARD WITH THE SYSTEM. THE NAM AND ECM SHOW
SLIGHTLY SW FLOW THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER WINDS THAN THE SLIGHTLY SE FLOW
DEPICTED BY THE GFS. FAVORED THE NAM/ECM SOLUTION WITH COASTAL WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE IMMEDIATE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST...AND VALLEY WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 45 MPH
SATURDAY EVENING BUT THESE NUMBERS MAY CHANGE AS THE MODELS HOPEFULLY
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES
DWINDLING BRIEFLY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. BOWEN/TJ

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN AND
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. SHORTWAVES WILL SUPPORT RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BEGINNING AROUND THURSDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
TO THE EXTENT THAT CLIMO SEEMS THE BEST BET AT THIS POINT FOR THE
REMAINING 24 HRS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BOWEN/27

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THIS MORNING...MAY BE A FEW SPOTS OF MVFR
CIGS. AFTER 18Z A WARM FRONT LIFTING N WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN N INTO
NW OREGON...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...WITH
RAIN DECREASING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO WA.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z...BEFORE A
MORE GENERAL RAIN DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...THERE IS ABOUT A 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEEING A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BEFORE 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS TODAY AS LIGHT S WINDS BACK
AROUND TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY. A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN TO AROUND 995 MB AND APPROACH FROM THE SW TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
N THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SAT BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER WESTERN
WA LATE SAT. THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW ARE STILL IN
QUESTION...BUT OVERALL EXPECTATION IS FOR SOUTHERLY GALES WITH THIS
LOW SAT. THE GALES WILL BRING STEEP SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED
TO PEAK AROUND 17 TO 20 FT LATE SAT...BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND
ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

ONCE THE LOW MOVES INLAND MON EVENING...WINDS WILL TURN TO BACK
TO THE W AND DECREASE ALONG WITH SEAS SUBSIDING. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE W EARLY NEXT WEEK...AROUND MON NIGHT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     7 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 241002
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
302 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO SW OREGON
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY EASED THIS MORNING BUT STRATIFORM RAIN WILL
RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NORTH
ZONES SHOULD BE DRY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

A LOW WELL OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW...AND THE GFS HAS CONSOLIDATED THE SYSTEM INTO ONE
SINGLE LOW INSTEAD OF AN ELONGATED TWO...THERE ARE STILL
DISCREPANCIES ON THE STRENGTH. RAIN IS CERTAIN BASED ON THE TRACK BUT
WINDS WILL DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER IN THAT REGARD WITH THE SYSTEM. THE NAM AND ECM SHOW
SLIGHTLY SW FLOW THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER WINDS THAN THE SLIGHTLY SE FLOW
DEPICTED BY THE GFS. FAVORED THE NAM/ECM SOLUTION WITH COASTAL WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE IMMEDIATE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST...AND VALLEY WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 45 MPH
SATURDAY EVENING BUT THESE NUMBERS MAY CHANGE AS THE MODELS HOPEFULLY
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES
DWINDLING BRIEFLY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. BOWEN/TJ

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN AND
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. SHORTWAVES WILL SUPPORT RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BEGINNING AROUND THURSDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
TO THE EXTENT THAT CLIMO SEEMS THE BEST BET AT THIS POINT FOR THE
REMAINING 24 HRS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BOWEN/27

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THIS MORNING...MAY BE A FEW SPOTS OF MVFR
CIGS. AFTER 18Z A WARM FRONT LIFTING N WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN N INTO
NW OREGON...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...WITH
RAIN DECREASING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO WA.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z...BEFORE A
MORE GENERAL RAIN DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...THERE IS ABOUT A 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEEING A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BEFORE 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS TODAY AS LIGHT S WINDS BACK
AROUND TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY. A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN TO AROUND 995 MB AND APPROACH FROM THE SW TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
N THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SAT BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER WESTERN
WA LATE SAT. THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW ARE STILL IN
QUESTION...BUT OVERALL EXPECTATION IS FOR SOUTHERLY GALES WITH THIS
LOW SAT. THE GALES WILL BRING STEEP SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED
TO PEAK AROUND 17 TO 20 FT LATE SAT...BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND
ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

ONCE THE LOW MOVES INLAND MON EVENING...WINDS WILL TURN TO BACK
TO THE W AND DECREASE ALONG WITH SEAS SUBSIDING. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE W EARLY NEXT WEEK...AROUND MON NIGHT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     7 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 240937
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
337 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RAIN /SNOW ABOVE 7500/
NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL AXIS THAT AT 3 AM EXTENDED FROM ROME
OREGON TO JEROME IDAHO...WILL LIFT NORTH OF BOISE AROUND 6
AM...BAKER AND MCCALL AROUND 3 PM...AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND MID AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE THE SERVICE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING A SMALL THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO WEST HARNEY COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH...FRIDAY...PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO AROUND 5000 FEET. MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS
UP BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL KEEP COLDER AIR AT HIGH
ELEVATIONS...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO UNDER 5000 FEET.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER...THIS
FORCES MOIST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AND FOR A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS SPLIT AFTER THURSDAY CONCERNING
THE BUILDING OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE AND
MUCH DRIER WITH THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY JET TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE
GFS PLACES THE MOIST UPPER JET OVER THE REGION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
FURTHER EAST WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODEL PREDICTABILITY CHARTS FAVORED THE DRIER ECMWF
SOLUTION BUT KEPT CLIMO POPS FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MOUNTAINS OBSCURED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
BECOMING VFR MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY 21Z ALL AREAS. WARM SECTOR
WINDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED MVFR
/IFR ABOVE 5K FT SUNDAY/ SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO SW
10-25KTS LATER TODAY AND 15-30KTS SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT SW 20 KTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 40KTS THIS EVENING...INCREASING TO 30-50KTS
SATURDAY AND SHIFTING TO WEST SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....VM




000
FXUS66 KPDT 240902
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
202 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND IT AND UP THROUGH THE CWA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DIG A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST BY LATE FRIDAY AND
THEN WILL SWING UP THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS OFF THE COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH A BREAK TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.
THEN ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY
WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN
UP SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT WINDS WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH WIND ADVISORY
SPEEDS. RIGHT NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS ABOUT THIS BUT IT WILL BECOME WINDY IN MOST AREAS IN ANY
CASE AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY COOL
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY EVENING WILL TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
OTHER THAN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN CONSIDERABLY AS A STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW TAKES OVER RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME
WILL RANGE FROM 6000-7000 FEET.  THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ONCE
AGAIN DIVERGING BY DAY 6...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW BASED ON THE HIGH
DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE RUNS. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE MID WEEK. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...THE SWATH OF RAIN THAT
AFFECTED THE TAF SITES HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST EAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...IT WILL RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT...KBDN AND KRDM COULD START SEEING RAIN AGAIN AROUND 12Z
ALONG WITH LOWERING CEILINGS. THE RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL
THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING EVENTUALLY IMPACTING ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MVFR OR LOWER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  46  59  45 /  50  30  20  30
ALW  59  49  60  49 /  50  50  20  30
PSC  59  45  62  48 /  20  60  20  30
YKM  55  40  56  41 /  20  60  30  40
HRI  58  43  62  46 /  40  50  20  30
ELN  53  39  56  40 /  10  70  30  40
RDM  55  38  58  36 /  70  20  20  40
LGD  54  43  63  44 /  70  20  20  30
GCD  57  42  62  42 /  70  10  20  40
DLS  57  45  60  47 /  70  60  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85






000
FXUS66 KPDT 240525
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1025 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EXTENDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
MAIN MOISTURE PLUME HAS BEEN PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AND CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST OREGON TO CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS DIVIDING LINE
SEPARATES THE MORE STEADY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHOWERY TYPE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE MOISTURE PLUME OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION.

A SHORTWAVE COMING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST ON FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
ONCE AGAIN PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING IN THE SOUTH FIRST THEN LIFTING NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...THE SWATH OF RAIN THAT AFFECTED THE TAF SITES
HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL
RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...KBDN AND KRDM COULD
START SEEING RAIN AGAIN AROUND 12Z ALONG WITH LOWERING CEILINGS. THE
RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING EVENTUALLY IMPACTING ALL TAF
SITES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MVFR
OR LOWER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KTS.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 408 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS ADJUSTMENT OF THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME AND THE LOSS OF THE LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE
SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THERE HAVE BEEN STRAY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A STRAY STORM TO CONTINUE EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME
WILL LINGER FROM WALLOWA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH GRANT COUNTY TO
DESCHUTES COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THESE
AREAS. A DEEPENING LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL CAUSE THE MOISTURE PLUME TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VARYING
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA DUE TO THIS WARM FRONT. THIS LOW LOOKS
MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WOULD THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ADVISORIES, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 4500-5000 FEET WHILE BREEZY WINDS PERSIST. YET ONLY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
MONDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
DURING THIS TIME SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE BACK UP ABOVE 6000 FEET.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF
AND ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY. WHILE THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT...THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN
AND FORECAST DETAILS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. COBB



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  59  44  65 /  10  50  30  20
ALW  49  60  47  66 /  20  40  40  10
PSC  47  61  45  63 /  10  20  40  20
YKM  39  54  40  57 /  10  20  60  30
HRI  46  61  43  63 /  10  40  40  20
ELN  38  54  39  57 /  10  10  70  30
RDM  40  54  38  62 /  20  70  20  20
LGD  45  55  43  64 /  60  70  20  20
GCD  45  57  42  64 /  60  70  10  20
DLS  45  58  45  60 /  10  70  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91







000
FXUS66 KMFR 240404
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
904 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
CASCADES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS A LOW TO
THE WEST APPROACHES THE REGION, THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY  WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES
SO, EXPECT WESTERN AREAS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY GETTING LITTLE
RAINFALL, TO ONCE AGAIN RECEIVE LIGHT TO MODERATE RATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA WITH MOST INLAND AREAS BEING DRY BY
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. SO HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OREGON, INCLUDING THE MEDFORD AREA, DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

THEN, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A STRONG SURFACE LOW, AROUND
992MB, WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE OREGON
COAST SATURDAY MORNING...THEN INLAND NORTH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE COAST INSIDE OF 130W LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR STRONG SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 60 MPH OR GREATER REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SHASTA
VALLEY, SUMMER LAKE AREA, AND OVER THE SISKIYOUS MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS FOR MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW HIGH WIND POTENTIAL FOR THESE AREAS WITH A 70 KT 700 MB JET
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION THE
NAM INDICATES THAT A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WITH 35 TO 45 KT SOUTH WINDS AT 850 MB FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS INTO WESTERN VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHERN ROGUE VALLEY. ALONG THE COAST, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS BUT COASTAL HEADLANDS MAY
EXPERIENCE HIGH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION, TO WIND IMPACTS, THIS STRONG LOW WILL BRING RAIN
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ALSO COLD AIR ALOFT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS WELL ON SATURDAY. OF NOTE IS THAT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR MAY BRING STRONG GUSTY  WINDS DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A STALLED FRONT FROM SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR
THIS EVENING, BUT WITH SOME TERRAIN OBSCURED WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, LIKELY RESULTING IN CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VIS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS LOW DUE TO
THE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS EXPECTED. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 515 PM PDT THU 23 OCT 2014...
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT, BUT
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL EASE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING NEAR 40 NORTH AND 130 WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 WEST INTO NORTHERN OREGON
AND WASHINGTON BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HISTORICALLY, THIS IS A
FAVORABLE SURFACE LOW TRACK FOR HIGH-END GALES AND EVEN POTENTIAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS. THE GFS/HI-RES
ARW/GEM MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE OF A COMPACT LOW WITH PRESSURES AS
LOW AS 985MB, WHILE THE EC/NAM HAVE MORE OF AN ELONGATED LOW WITH
PRESSURES DOWN TO 993MB. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE MODEL BL AND
SURFACE FLOW, HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 60 KT NEAR CAPE BLANCO
AND OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. HAVE ISSUED A STORM/GALE WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL ZONES WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE
GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO.
THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS CHAOTIC SEAS OF UP TO 23
FEET DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING.
THIS MEANS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY THIS EVENING BUT MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES
AND SISKIYOUS.

THE CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN
A BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TAKE THE LOW NORTHEAST TOWARD
ASTORIA. BOTH THE NAME AND THE GFS SHOW VERY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM ARCATA TO NORTH BEND WITH THIS SYSTEM. COASTAL
WATERS COULD SEE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST EXCEPT AT THE
HEADLANDS. THE STRONG GRADIENTS WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE SHASTA VALLEYS WHILE 700MB WINDS WILL BE IN THE 50-60 MPH
RANGE. I HAVE ISSUED THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN OREGON AND NE CALIFORNIA. IN
ADDITION THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO SEE A VERY STRONG SOUTH
WINDS IMPACTING THE SISKIYOU PASS AND MOUNT ASHLAND AREA.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
AGAIN AT THE COAST WITH SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF RAIN IN THE ROGUE VALLEY UNTIL SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTING WINDS AS WELL.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM TUESDAY
FORWARD WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING THE RIDGE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES; WHEREAS THE ECMWF BRINGS A LOW PRESSURE INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SNOW
LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CLIMATOLOGY POPS IN THE
EXTENDED. /FB

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONT STALLING FROM SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AND
REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL BE VFR THIS EVENING, BUT WITH SOME TERRAIN OBSCURED ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, LIKELY RESULTING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES WITH CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL BECOME TOTAL. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VIS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS LOW DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS
EXPECTED. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 515 PM PDT THU 23 OCT 2014...
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT, BUT
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL EASE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING NEAR 40 NORTH AND 130 WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 WEST INTO NORTHERN OREGON
AND WASHINGTON BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HISTORICALLY, THIS IS A
FAVORABLE SURFACE LOW TRACK FOR HIGH-END GALES AND EVEN POTENTIAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS. THE GFS/HI-RES
ARW/GEM MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE OF A COMPACT LOW WITH PRESSURES AS
LOW AS 985MB, WHILE THE EC/NAM HAVE MORE OF AN ELONGATED LOW WITH
PRESSURES DOWN TO 993MB. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE MODEL BL AND
SURFACE FLOW, HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 60 KT NEAR CAPE BLANCO
AND OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. HAVE ISSUED A STORM/GALE WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL ZONES WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE
GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO.
THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS CHAOTIC SEAS OF UP TO 23
FEET DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ029>031.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ028.

CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ081>083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356.
     STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC/CC/CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 240404
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
904 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
CASCADES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS A LOW TO
THE WEST APPROACHES THE REGION, THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY  WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES
SO, EXPECT WESTERN AREAS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY GETTING LITTLE
RAINFALL, TO ONCE AGAIN RECEIVE LIGHT TO MODERATE RATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA WITH MOST INLAND AREAS BEING DRY BY
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. SO HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OREGON, INCLUDING THE MEDFORD AREA, DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

THEN, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A STRONG SURFACE LOW, AROUND
992MB, WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE OREGON
COAST SATURDAY MORNING...THEN INLAND NORTH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE COAST INSIDE OF 130W LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR STRONG SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 60 MPH OR GREATER REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SHASTA
VALLEY, SUMMER LAKE AREA, AND OVER THE SISKIYOUS MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS FOR MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW HIGH WIND POTENTIAL FOR THESE AREAS WITH A 70 KT 700 MB JET
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION THE
NAM INDICATES THAT A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WITH 35 TO 45 KT SOUTH WINDS AT 850 MB FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS INTO WESTERN VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHERN ROGUE VALLEY. ALONG THE COAST, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS BUT COASTAL HEADLANDS MAY
EXPERIENCE HIGH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION, TO WIND IMPACTS, THIS STRONG LOW WILL BRING RAIN
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ALSO COLD AIR ALOFT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS WELL ON SATURDAY. OF NOTE IS THAT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR MAY BRING STRONG GUSTY  WINDS DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A STALLED FRONT FROM SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR
THIS EVENING, BUT WITH SOME TERRAIN OBSCURED WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, LIKELY RESULTING IN CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VIS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS LOW DUE TO
THE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS EXPECTED. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 515 PM PDT THU 23 OCT 2014...
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT, BUT
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL EASE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING NEAR 40 NORTH AND 130 WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 WEST INTO NORTHERN OREGON
AND WASHINGTON BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HISTORICALLY, THIS IS A
FAVORABLE SURFACE LOW TRACK FOR HIGH-END GALES AND EVEN POTENTIAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS. THE GFS/HI-RES
ARW/GEM MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE OF A COMPACT LOW WITH PRESSURES AS
LOW AS 985MB, WHILE THE EC/NAM HAVE MORE OF AN ELONGATED LOW WITH
PRESSURES DOWN TO 993MB. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE MODEL BL AND
SURFACE FLOW, HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 60 KT NEAR CAPE BLANCO
AND OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. HAVE ISSUED A STORM/GALE WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL ZONES WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE
GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO.
THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS CHAOTIC SEAS OF UP TO 23
FEET DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING.
THIS MEANS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY THIS EVENING BUT MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES
AND SISKIYOUS.

THE CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN
A BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TAKE THE LOW NORTHEAST TOWARD
ASTORIA. BOTH THE NAME AND THE GFS SHOW VERY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM ARCATA TO NORTH BEND WITH THIS SYSTEM. COASTAL
WATERS COULD SEE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST EXCEPT AT THE
HEADLANDS. THE STRONG GRADIENTS WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE SHASTA VALLEYS WHILE 700MB WINDS WILL BE IN THE 50-60 MPH
RANGE. I HAVE ISSUED THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN OREGON AND NE CALIFORNIA. IN
ADDITION THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO SEE A VERY STRONG SOUTH
WINDS IMPACTING THE SISKIYOU PASS AND MOUNT ASHLAND AREA.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
AGAIN AT THE COAST WITH SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF RAIN IN THE ROGUE VALLEY UNTIL SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTING WINDS AS WELL.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM TUESDAY
FORWARD WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING THE RIDGE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES; WHEREAS THE ECMWF BRINGS A LOW PRESSURE INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SNOW
LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CLIMATOLOGY POPS IN THE
EXTENDED. /FB

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONT STALLING FROM SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AND
REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL BE VFR THIS EVENING, BUT WITH SOME TERRAIN OBSCURED ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, LIKELY RESULTING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES WITH CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL BECOME TOTAL. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VIS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS LOW DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS
EXPECTED. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 515 PM PDT THU 23 OCT 2014...
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT, BUT
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL EASE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING NEAR 40 NORTH AND 130 WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 WEST INTO NORTHERN OREGON
AND WASHINGTON BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HISTORICALLY, THIS IS A
FAVORABLE SURFACE LOW TRACK FOR HIGH-END GALES AND EVEN POTENTIAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS. THE GFS/HI-RES
ARW/GEM MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE OF A COMPACT LOW WITH PRESSURES AS
LOW AS 985MB, WHILE THE EC/NAM HAVE MORE OF AN ELONGATED LOW WITH
PRESSURES DOWN TO 993MB. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE MODEL BL AND
SURFACE FLOW, HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 60 KT NEAR CAPE BLANCO
AND OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. HAVE ISSUED A STORM/GALE WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL ZONES WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE
GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO.
THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS CHAOTIC SEAS OF UP TO 23
FEET DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ029>031.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ028.

CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ081>083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356.
     STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC/CC/CC







000
FXUS66 KPQR 240339
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
839 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE AIR MASS
SLOWLY STABILIZES. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO SW OREGON
FRIDAY MORNING AND ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&
.UPDATE...A NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM DETERMINED THAT THE TORNADO THAT
TOUCHED DOWN IN LONGVIEW WA THIS AFTERNOON WAS AN EF-1. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SHOWERS THAT SHOWERS HAVE EASED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE
STILL FAIRLY PERSISTENT OVER SW WASHINGTON. THERE HAS BEEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE THAT ARE JUST ENTERING
THE NORTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WATERS AND SW WA COAST FOR THIS EVENING. THE
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS...AND REMAIN ON THE DRY
SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE SW WA COAST
AND THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. RAIN WILL RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE FRIDAY MORNING TO THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE
AREA.

FROM PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW
OREGON FRI MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NORTH ZONES COULD BE DRY
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRI AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT FRI INTO SAT MORNING.

MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR 12Z SAT CREATE A HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW STRENGTH...TRACK AND TIMING. THE GFS IS THE
MOST CONSOLIDATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW 12Z SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
NAM HAVE A MORE ELONGATED LOW WITH MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS. THE LATEST
GFS IS NOW THE SLOWEST WITH THE LOW...WITH A 990 MB CENTER NEAR
NEWPORT 18Z SAT. THE ECWMF AND NAM HAVE THE MAIN LOW CENTER NEAR THE
FAR N OREGON OR S WA COAST. THE WRF-GFS VALID 18Z SAT HAS A SMALL
CORE OF 60-70 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE S PART OF THE CENTRAL
COAST...BUT BY 21Z WIND GUST SPEEDS FALL OFF TO 40-50 KT. IT ALSO
SHOWS A SMALL CORE OF 40-50 KT GUSTS IN THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AT 21Z.

DESPITE ALL OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS A HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE REGARDING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 40 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED AS A HEADS UP TO
THIS POSSIBILITY. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AND
MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. TJ/WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF DRYING
PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
NEXT THURSDAY. ALL IN ALL...EXPECT WET AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS THESE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. /27
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING. THE LOWER AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST AND
WITH ENOUGH CLOUD BREAKS THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TO PREVENT
WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING. NEXT FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRI AFTERNOON SPREADING RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH 12Z WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS FROM 12Z-17Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...BRIEF BREAK IN WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ADVERTISING OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING THE A QUICK SWITCH TO SOUTHERLIES OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE GALE
FORCE WINDS AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST
LANDFALL WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND
VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT SEEMS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE IS MOST LIKELY.
A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACKS PROVIDED BY VARIOUS
MODELS...GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS
OF 50 KT IF THE STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK PANS OUT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS POINT BUT ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE THE GALE WATCH FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE REFINED AS
MODELS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. SEAS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BECOME
STEEP AND WIND DOMINATED...POSSIBLY REACHING UPWARDS OF 20 FT LATE
SATURDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE DETAILS AT
THIS POINT IN TIME REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MODELS DO SUGGEST SEAS WILL
RELAX IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. /NEUMAN/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     3 AM TO 7 AM PDT FRIDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     3 PM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240339
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
839 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE AIR MASS
SLOWLY STABILIZES. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO SW OREGON
FRIDAY MORNING AND ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&
.UPDATE...A NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM DETERMINED THAT THE TORNADO THAT
TOUCHED DOWN IN LONGVIEW WA THIS AFTERNOON WAS AN EF-1. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SHOWERS THAT SHOWERS HAVE EASED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE
STILL FAIRLY PERSISTENT OVER SW WASHINGTON. THERE HAS BEEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE THAT ARE JUST ENTERING
THE NORTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WATERS AND SW WA COAST FOR THIS EVENING. THE
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS...AND REMAIN ON THE DRY
SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE SW WA COAST
AND THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. RAIN WILL RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE FRIDAY MORNING TO THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE
AREA.

FROM PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW
OREGON FRI MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NORTH ZONES COULD BE DRY
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRI AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT FRI INTO SAT MORNING.

MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR 12Z SAT CREATE A HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW STRENGTH...TRACK AND TIMING. THE GFS IS THE
MOST CONSOLIDATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW 12Z SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
NAM HAVE A MORE ELONGATED LOW WITH MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS. THE LATEST
GFS IS NOW THE SLOWEST WITH THE LOW...WITH A 990 MB CENTER NEAR
NEWPORT 18Z SAT. THE ECWMF AND NAM HAVE THE MAIN LOW CENTER NEAR THE
FAR N OREGON OR S WA COAST. THE WRF-GFS VALID 18Z SAT HAS A SMALL
CORE OF 60-70 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE S PART OF THE CENTRAL
COAST...BUT BY 21Z WIND GUST SPEEDS FALL OFF TO 40-50 KT. IT ALSO
SHOWS A SMALL CORE OF 40-50 KT GUSTS IN THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AT 21Z.

DESPITE ALL OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS A HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE REGARDING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 40 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED AS A HEADS UP TO
THIS POSSIBILITY. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AND
MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. TJ/WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF DRYING
PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
NEXT THURSDAY. ALL IN ALL...EXPECT WET AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS THESE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. /27
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING. THE LOWER AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST AND
WITH ENOUGH CLOUD BREAKS THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TO PREVENT
WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING. NEXT FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRI AFTERNOON SPREADING RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH 12Z WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS FROM 12Z-17Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...BRIEF BREAK IN WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ADVERTISING OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING THE A QUICK SWITCH TO SOUTHERLIES OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE GALE
FORCE WINDS AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST
LANDFALL WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND
VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT SEEMS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE IS MOST LIKELY.
A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACKS PROVIDED BY VARIOUS
MODELS...GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS
OF 50 KT IF THE STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK PANS OUT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS POINT BUT ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE THE GALE WATCH FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE REFINED AS
MODELS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. SEAS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BECOME
STEEP AND WIND DOMINATED...POSSIBLY REACHING UPWARDS OF 20 FT LATE
SATURDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE DETAILS AT
THIS POINT IN TIME REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MODELS DO SUGGEST SEAS WILL
RELAX IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. /NEUMAN/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     3 AM TO 7 AM PDT FRIDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     3 PM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPDT 240300
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
800 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EXTENDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
MAIN MOISTURE PLUME HAS BEEN PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AND CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST OREGON TO CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS DIVIDING LINE
SEPARATES THE MORE STEADY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHOWERY TYPE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE MOISTURE PLUME OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION.

A SHORTWAVE COMING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST ON FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
ONCE AGAIN PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING IN THE SOUTH FIRST THEN LIFTING NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 408 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS ADJUSTMENT OF THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME AND THE LOSS OF THE LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE
SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THERE HAVE BEEN STRAY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A STRAY STORM TO CONTINUE EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME
WILL LINGER FROM WALLOWA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH GRANT COUNTY TO
DESCHUTES COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THESE
AREAS. A DEEPENING LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL CAUSE THE MOISTURE PLUME TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VARYING
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA DUE TO THIS WARM FRONT. THIS LOW LOOKS
MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WOULD THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ADVISORIES, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 4500-5000 FEET WHILE BREEZY WINDS PERSIST. YET ONLY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
MONDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
DURING THIS TIME SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE BACK UP ABOVE 6000 FEET.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF
AND ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY. WHILE THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT...THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN
AND FORECAST DETAILS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. COBB

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...THE SWATH OF RAIN THAT AFFECTED THE TAF SITES
EARLIER IS NOW MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...IT WILL RETURN AS A WARM
FRONT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...KBDN AND KRDM COULD START SEEING RAIN
AGAIN AROUND 09Z. RAIN WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THAT SAID...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN AS GUSTY AS ANTICIPATED BUT WILL BE 10-20
KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  59  44  65 /  10  50  30  20
ALW  49  60  47  66 /  20  40  40  10
PSC  47  61  45  63 /  10  20  40  20
YKM  39  54  40  57 /  10  20  60  30
HRI  46  61  43  63 /  10  40  40  20
ELN  38  54  39  57 /  10  10  70  30
RDM  40  54  38  62 /  20  70  20  20
LGD  45  55  43  64 /  60  70  20  20
GCD  45  57  42  64 /  60  70  10  20
DLS  45  58  45  60 /  10  70  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91









000
FXUS66 KPDT 240300
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
800 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EXTENDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
MAIN MOISTURE PLUME HAS BEEN PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AND CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST OREGON TO CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS DIVIDING LINE
SEPARATES THE MORE STEADY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHOWERY TYPE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE MOISTURE PLUME OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION.

A SHORTWAVE COMING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST ON FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
ONCE AGAIN PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING IN THE SOUTH FIRST THEN LIFTING NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 408 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS ADJUSTMENT OF THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME AND THE LOSS OF THE LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE
SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THERE HAVE BEEN STRAY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A STRAY STORM TO CONTINUE EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME
WILL LINGER FROM WALLOWA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH GRANT COUNTY TO
DESCHUTES COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THESE
AREAS. A DEEPENING LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL CAUSE THE MOISTURE PLUME TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VARYING
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA DUE TO THIS WARM FRONT. THIS LOW LOOKS
MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WOULD THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ADVISORIES, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 4500-5000 FEET WHILE BREEZY WINDS PERSIST. YET ONLY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
MONDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
DURING THIS TIME SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE BACK UP ABOVE 6000 FEET.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF
AND ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY. WHILE THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT...THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN
AND FORECAST DETAILS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. COBB

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...THE SWATH OF RAIN THAT AFFECTED THE TAF SITES
EARLIER IS NOW MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...IT WILL RETURN AS A WARM
FRONT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...KBDN AND KRDM COULD START SEEING RAIN
AGAIN AROUND 09Z. RAIN WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THAT SAID...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN AS GUSTY AS ANTICIPATED BUT WILL BE 10-20
KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  59  44  65 /  10  50  30  20
ALW  49  60  47  66 /  20  40  40  10
PSC  47  61  45  63 /  10  20  40  20
YKM  39  54  40  57 /  10  20  60  30
HRI  46  61  43  63 /  10  40  40  20
ELN  38  54  39  57 /  10  10  70  30
RDM  40  54  38  62 /  20  70  20  20
LGD  45  55  43  64 /  60  70  20  20
GCD  45  57  42  64 /  60  70  10  20
DLS  45  58  45  60 /  10  70  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91









000
FXUS65 KBOI 240252
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
852 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...STARTING TO SEE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS EVENING IN RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
PICS. AS THIS TREND CONTINUES THE PRECIPITATION BAND OVER SE
OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL SHIFT TO THE NW. THE 00Z MODELS ARE
INLINE WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24H. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF BOISE WILL BE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY IS LIKELY DONE WITH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MADE UPDATES TO
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF IN FOR POINTS FROM BOISE
SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH ALL SITES REMAINING VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMYL. KMYL IS
EXPECTED TO SEE IFR CIG/VIS OVERNIGHT WITH THE AREA BECOMING SO
MOIST FROM PERSISTENT RAIN.  SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBNO KBKE AND KMYL...THEN TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH LATER FRIDAY MORNING. MID DAY FRIDAY THROUGH MID DAY
SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15KTS AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST...WITH
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS NEAR 5000 FT MSL AND 35 TO 45 KTS NEAR 10000
FT MSL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BOISE IS ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WHICH EXTENDS TO OUR WEST...AND INCLUDES
NEARLY ALL OF SE OREGON /EXCLUDING SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY/ AND SW
IDAHO...INCLUDING THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY NORTH INTO THE UPPER
WEISER BASIN AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BOISE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...SO AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...INCLUDING MOUNTAIN HOME...JEROME...AND TWIN FALLS...WILL
SEE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BAND OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY AS THE
FLOW AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
QPF TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET. ACCUMULATING SNOWS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE UPPER TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEYS...WHILE REMAINING COOL IN THE NORTH WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 50S. A WARMER AND DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH ENTERS
WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A DEEP SURFACE LOW /DOWN TO AROUND 990 MB/
NEAR THE PACNW COAST WILL ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OREGON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY AND BAKER
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS /IN
THE 70S/ ACROSS THE UPPER TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON A
PROGRESSIVE UNSETTLED PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL COOL HIGHS TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO THE
5 TO 6 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING THE
TROUGH WILL BRING EVEN COOLER AIR AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS TO UNDER 5000 FEET WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS. ACCORDING
TO MODELS THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY FURTHER NORTH...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF OREGON. SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION IS EXPECTED TO END THE SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 240252
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
852 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...STARTING TO SEE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS EVENING IN RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
PICS. AS THIS TREND CONTINUES THE PRECIPITATION BAND OVER SE
OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL SHIFT TO THE NW. THE 00Z MODELS ARE
INLINE WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24H. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF BOISE WILL BE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY IS LIKELY DONE WITH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MADE UPDATES TO
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF IN FOR POINTS FROM BOISE
SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH ALL SITES REMAINING VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMYL. KMYL IS
EXPECTED TO SEE IFR CIG/VIS OVERNIGHT WITH THE AREA BECOMING SO
MOIST FROM PERSISTENT RAIN.  SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBNO KBKE AND KMYL...THEN TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH LATER FRIDAY MORNING. MID DAY FRIDAY THROUGH MID DAY
SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15KTS AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST...WITH
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS NEAR 5000 FT MSL AND 35 TO 45 KTS NEAR 10000
FT MSL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BOISE IS ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WHICH EXTENDS TO OUR WEST...AND INCLUDES
NEARLY ALL OF SE OREGON /EXCLUDING SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY/ AND SW
IDAHO...INCLUDING THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY NORTH INTO THE UPPER
WEISER BASIN AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BOISE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...SO AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...INCLUDING MOUNTAIN HOME...JEROME...AND TWIN FALLS...WILL
SEE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BAND OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY AS THE
FLOW AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
QPF TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET. ACCUMULATING SNOWS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE UPPER TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEYS...WHILE REMAINING COOL IN THE NORTH WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 50S. A WARMER AND DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH ENTERS
WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A DEEP SURFACE LOW /DOWN TO AROUND 990 MB/
NEAR THE PACNW COAST WILL ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OREGON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY AND BAKER
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS /IN
THE 70S/ ACROSS THE UPPER TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON A
PROGRESSIVE UNSETTLED PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL COOL HIGHS TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO THE
5 TO 6 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING THE
TROUGH WILL BRING EVEN COOLER AIR AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS TO UNDER 5000 FEET WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS. ACCORDING
TO MODELS THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY FURTHER NORTH...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF OREGON. SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION IS EXPECTED TO END THE SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH




000
FXUS66 KMFR 240018
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
518 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING.
THIS MEANS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY THIS EVENING BUT MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES
AND SISKIYOUS.

THE CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN
A BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TAKE THE LOW NORTHEAST TOWARD
ASTORIA. BOTH THE NAME AND THE GFS SHOW VERY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM ARCATA TO NORTH BEND WITH THIS SYSTEM. COASTAL
WATERS COULD SEE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST EXCEPT AT THE
HEADLANDS. THE STRONG GRADIENTS WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE SHASTA VALLEYS WHILE 700MB WINDS WILL BE IN THE 50-60 MPH
RANGE. I HAVE ISSUED THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN OREGON AND NE CALIFORNIA. IN
ADDITION THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO SEE A VERY STRONG SOUTH
WINDS IMPACTING THE SISKIYOU PASS AND MOUNT ASHLAND AREA.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
AGAIN AT THE COAST WITH SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF RAIN IN THE ROGUE VALLEY UNTIL SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTING WINDS AS WELL.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM TUESDAY
FORWARD WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING THE RIDGE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES; WHEREAS THE ECMWF BRINGS A LOW PRESSURE INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SNOW
LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CLIMATOLOGY POPS IN THE
EXTENDED. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONT STALLING FROM SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AND
REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL BE VFR THIS EVENING, BUT WITH SOME TERRAIN OBSCURED ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, LIKELY RESULTING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES WITH CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL BECOME TOTAL. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VIS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS LOW DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS
EXPECTED. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 515 PM PDT THU 23 OCT 2014...
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT, BUT
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL EASE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING NEAR 40 NORTH AND 130 WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 WEST INTO NORTHERN OREGON
AND WASHINGTON BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HISTORICALLY, THIS IS A
FAVORABLE SURFACE LOW TRACK FOR HIGH-END GALES AND EVEN POTENTIAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS. THE GFS/HI-RES
ARW/GEM MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE OF A COMPACT LOW WITH PRESSURES AS
LOW AS 985MB, WHILE THE EC/NAM HAVE MORE OF AN ELONGATED LOW WITH
PRESSURES DOWN TO 993MB. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE MODEL BL AND
SURFACE FLOW, HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 60 KT NEAR CAPE BLANCO
AND OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. HAVE ISSUED A STORM/GALE WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL ZONES WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE
GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO.
THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS CHAOTIC SEAS OF UP TO 23
FEET DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ029>031.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ028.

CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ081>083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
     SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356.
     STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

MAS/FB/BTL







000
FXUS66 KPDT 232308 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
408 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS ADJUSTMENT OF THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME AND THE LOSS OF THE LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE
SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THERE HAVE BEEN STRAY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A STRAY STORM TO CONTINUE EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME
WILL LINGER FROM WALLOWA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH GRANT COUNTY TO
DESCHUTES COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THESE
AREAS. A DEEPENING LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL CAUSE THE MOISTURE PLUME TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VARYING
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA DUE TO THIS WARM FRONT. THIS LOW LOOKS
MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WOULD THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ADVISORIES, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. 90

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 4500-5000 FEET WHILE BREEZY WINDS PERSIST. YET ONLY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
MONDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
DURING THIS TIME SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE BACK UP ABOVE 6000 FEET.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF
AND ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY. WHILE THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT...THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN
AND FORECAST DETAILS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...THE SWATH OF RAIN THAT AFFECTED THE TAF SITES
EARLIER IS NOW MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...IT WILL RETURN AS A WARM
FRONT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...KBDN AND KRDM COULD START SEEING RAIN
AGAIN AROUND 09Z. RAIN WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THAT SAID...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN AS GUSTY AS ANTICIPATED BUT WILL BE 10-20
KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  45  60  44  65 /  20  30  30  20
ALW  48  61  47  66 /  20  30  40  10
PSC  47  62  45  63 /  10  10  40  20
YKM  40  55  40  57 /  20  10  60  30
HRI  45  61  43  63 /  20  20  40  20
ELN  39  57  39  57 /  20  10  70  30
RDM  39  56  38  62 /  30  70  20  20
LGD  46  58  43  64 /  60  60  20  20
GCD  43  57  42  64 /  60  60  10  20
DLS  45  58  45  60 /  20  50  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82







000
FXUS66 KMFR 232214
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
314 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING.
THIS MEANS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY THIS EVENING BUT MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES
AND SISKIYOUS.

THE CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN
A BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TAKE THE LOW NORTHEAST TOWARD
ASTORIA. BOTH THE NAME AND THE GFS SHOW VERY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM ARCATA TO NORTH BEND WITH THIS SYSTEM. COASTAL
WATERS COULD SEE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST EXCEPT AT THE
HEADLANDS. THE STRONG GRADIENTS WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE SHASTA VALLEYS WHILE 700MB WINDS WILL BE IN THE 50-60 MPH
RANGE. I HAVE ISSUED THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN OREGON AND NE CALIFORNIA. IN
ADDITION THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO SEE A VERY STRONG SOUTH
WINDS IMPACTING THE SISKIYOU PASS AND MOUNT ASHLAND AREA.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
AGAIN AT THE COAST WITH SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF RAIN IN THE ROGUE VALLEY UNTIL SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTING WINDS AS WELL.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM TUESDAY
FORWARD WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING THE RIDGE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES; WHEREAS THE ECMWF BRINGS A LOW PRESSURE INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SNOW
LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CLIMATOLOGY POPS IN THE
EXTENDED. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA,
DRAPED ALONG AND NEAR THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES. THIS STALLED FRONT IS CAUSING TOTAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THIS AREAS, AND PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ELSEWHERE. IN THE VALLEYS IN THIS SAME AREA CONDITIONS ARE A MIX OF
VFR AND IFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN, BUT EMBEDDED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WILL EVENTUALLY REDEVELOP BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT CURRENT REDUCED
CIGS/VIS WITH THE FRONT WILL TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD KLMT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AT KMFR BEFORE ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE WEAKENED THIS MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TODAY DUE TO MODERATE WEST SWELL. THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG TO VERY STRONG
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE 130W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130W SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY, ALONG WITH 20
FOOT SEAS OR GREATER. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND AND SEAS MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BTL/BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ029>031.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ028.

CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ081>083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356.
     STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BTL







000
FXUS66 KPQR 232153
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
251 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE AIR MASS
SLOWLY BECOMES LESS UNSTABLE. A SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE NORTH
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW OREGON FRIDAY MORNING
AND THEN DRIFTS NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ELONGATED
SURFACE LOW FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SWINGS
TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON HAS
BECOME MORE ACTIVE. KRTX DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR NEWBERG TO
CAMAS...WA SHORTLY BEFORE 20Z. RECEIVED A CALL FROM AN EMERGENCY
MANAGER IN SW WA JUST AFTER 20Z REGARDING A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR
KELSO AND LONGVIEW THAT PRODUCED SOME ROOF DAMAGE. KRTX DOPPLER RADAR
VELOCITY AND STORM-RELATIVE MOTION DISPLAYS INDICATED SOME DEGREE OF
ROTATION WITHIN THIS CELL. THIS ACTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
AREA OF COLD AIR CUMULUS OFF THE WA AND N OREGON COAST. SW-W 850 MB
FLOW OF 15-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GOOD OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN ELEVATED TERRAIN SUCH AS THE OREGON
COAST RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS...AND THE CASCADE ZONES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...BUT DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES LESS UNSTABLE. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A
NEW LOW THAT DEVELOPS AROUND 40N 130W 00Z SAT. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO SW OREGON FRI MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NORTH
ZONES COULD BE DRY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRI AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT FRI
INTO SAT MORNING. MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR 12Z SAT CREATE A
HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW STRENGTH...TRACK AND
TIMING. THE GFS IS THE MOST CONSOLIDATED WITH THE SURFAFE LOW 12Z
SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM HAVE A MORE ELONGATED LOW WITH MULTIPLE
LOW CENTERS. THE LATEST GFS IS NOW THE SLOWEST WITH THE LOW...WITH A
990 MB CENTER NEAR NEWPORT 18Z SAT. THE ECWMF AND NAM HAVE THE MAIN
LOW CENTER NEAR THE FAR N OREGON OR S WA COAST. THE WRF-GFS VALID 18Z
SAT HAS A SMALL CORE OF 60-70 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE S PART OF THE
CENTRAL COAST...BUT BY 21Z WIND GUST SPEEDS FALL OFF TO 40-50 KT. IT
ALSO SHOWS A SMALL CORE OF 40-50 KT GUSTS IN THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AT 21Z. DESPITE ALL OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS A HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE REGARDING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPIONG
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 40 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED AS A HEADS UP TO
THIS POSSIBILITY. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AND
MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF DRYING
PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
NEXT THURSDAY. ALL IN ALL...EXPECT WET AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS THESE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. /27
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.
DEPENDING ON BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW
AT THIS POINT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE VFR TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...BUT DEPENDING ON BREAKS IN THE MID TO UPPER CLOUDS
TONIGHT...IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP TOWARDS
12Z FRIDAY. /NEUMAN /MH

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE NOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WATERS HOWEVER SEAS ARE STILL AROUND 10 TO 12 FEET SO
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING LESS WIND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW SEAS TO DROP
BELOW 10 FT FOR FRIDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND TRACK EITHER NORTHWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD JUST BEYOND OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WHERE IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL SO CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. MODELS SUGGEST LANDFALL WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT SEEMS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE IS MOST LIKELY. A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. REGARDLESS OF THE
TRACKS PROVIDED BY VARIOUS MODELS...GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT IF THE STRONGER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK PANS OUT. SEAS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BECOME STEEP
AND WIND DOMINATED...POSSIBLY REACHING UPWARDS OF 20 FT LATE
SATURDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT THE DETAILS AT THIS
POINT IN TIME REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MODELS DO SUGGEST SEAS WILL RELAX
IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM
     TO 7 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 232153
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
251 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE AIR MASS
SLOWLY BECOMES LESS UNSTABLE. A SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE NORTH
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW OREGON FRIDAY MORNING
AND THEN DRIFTS NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ELONGATED
SURFACE LOW FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SWINGS
TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON HAS
BECOME MORE ACTIVE. KRTX DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR NEWBERG TO
CAMAS...WA SHORTLY BEFORE 20Z. RECEIVED A CALL FROM AN EMERGENCY
MANAGER IN SW WA JUST AFTER 20Z REGARDING A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR
KELSO AND LONGVIEW THAT PRODUCED SOME ROOF DAMAGE. KRTX DOPPLER RADAR
VELOCITY AND STORM-RELATIVE MOTION DISPLAYS INDICATED SOME DEGREE OF
ROTATION WITHIN THIS CELL. THIS ACTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
AREA OF COLD AIR CUMULUS OFF THE WA AND N OREGON COAST. SW-W 850 MB
FLOW OF 15-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GOOD OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN ELEVATED TERRAIN SUCH AS THE OREGON
COAST RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS...AND THE CASCADE ZONES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...BUT DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES LESS UNSTABLE. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A
NEW LOW THAT DEVELOPS AROUND 40N 130W 00Z SAT. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO SW OREGON FRI MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NORTH
ZONES COULD BE DRY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRI AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT FRI
INTO SAT MORNING. MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR 12Z SAT CREATE A
HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW STRENGTH...TRACK AND
TIMING. THE GFS IS THE MOST CONSOLIDATED WITH THE SURFAFE LOW 12Z
SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM HAVE A MORE ELONGATED LOW WITH MULTIPLE
LOW CENTERS. THE LATEST GFS IS NOW THE SLOWEST WITH THE LOW...WITH A
990 MB CENTER NEAR NEWPORT 18Z SAT. THE ECWMF AND NAM HAVE THE MAIN
LOW CENTER NEAR THE FAR N OREGON OR S WA COAST. THE WRF-GFS VALID 18Z
SAT HAS A SMALL CORE OF 60-70 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE S PART OF THE
CENTRAL COAST...BUT BY 21Z WIND GUST SPEEDS FALL OFF TO 40-50 KT. IT
ALSO SHOWS A SMALL CORE OF 40-50 KT GUSTS IN THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AT 21Z. DESPITE ALL OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS A HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE REGARDING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPIONG
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 40 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED AS A HEADS UP TO
THIS POSSIBILITY. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AND
MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF DRYING
PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
NEXT THURSDAY. ALL IN ALL...EXPECT WET AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS THESE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. /27
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.
DEPENDING ON BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW
AT THIS POINT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE VFR TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...BUT DEPENDING ON BREAKS IN THE MID TO UPPER CLOUDS
TONIGHT...IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP TOWARDS
12Z FRIDAY. /NEUMAN /MH

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE NOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WATERS HOWEVER SEAS ARE STILL AROUND 10 TO 12 FEET SO
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING LESS WIND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW SEAS TO DROP
BELOW 10 FT FOR FRIDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND TRACK EITHER NORTHWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD JUST BEYOND OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WHERE IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL SO CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. MODELS SUGGEST LANDFALL WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT SEEMS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE IS MOST LIKELY. A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. REGARDLESS OF THE
TRACKS PROVIDED BY VARIOUS MODELS...GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT IF THE STRONGER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK PANS OUT. SEAS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BECOME STEEP
AND WIND DOMINATED...POSSIBLY REACHING UPWARDS OF 20 FT LATE
SATURDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT THE DETAILS AT THIS
POINT IN TIME REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MODELS DO SUGGEST SEAS WILL RELAX
IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM
     TO 7 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPDT 232143
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
243 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS ADJUSTMENT OF THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME AND THE LOSS OF THE LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE
SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THERE HAVE BEEN STRAY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A STRAY STORM TO CONTINUE EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME
WILL LINGER FROM WALLOWA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH GRANT COUNTY TO
DESCHUTES COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THESE
AREAS. A DEEPENING LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL CAUSE THE MOISTURE PLUME TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VARYING
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA DUE TO THIS WARM FRONT. THIS LOW LOOKS
MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WOULD THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ADVISORIES, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. 90

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 4500-5000 FEET WHILE BREEZY WINDS PERSIST. YET ONLY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
MONDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
DURING THIS TIME SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE BACK UP ABOVE 6000 FEET.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF
AND ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY. WHILE THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT...THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN
AND FORECAST DETAILS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH BKN-OVC SKIES WITH BASES BETWEEN 4000-10000 FEET
AND HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
TO IFR IN AREAS OF RAIN...MAINLY NEAR KRDM AND KBDN. SW-W WINDS 8-15
KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN
DIURNAL TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL PREVAIL. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO THIN OUT ON FRIDAY MORNING...BUT CIRRUS SHOULD PERSIST. 82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  45  60  44  65 /  20  30  30  20
ALW  48  61  47  66 /  20  30  40  10
PSC  47  62  45  63 /  10  10  40  20
YKM  40  55  40  57 /  20  10  60  30
HRI  45  61  43  63 /  20  20  40  20
ELN  39  57  39  57 /  20  10  70  30
RDM  39  56  38  62 /  30  70  20  20
LGD  46  58  43  64 /  60  60  20  20
GCD  43  57  42  64 /  60  60  10  20
DLS  45  58  45  60 /  20  50  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82








000
FXUS65 KBOI 232034
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
234 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BOISE IS ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WHICH EXTENDS TO OUR WEST...AND INCLUDES
NEARLY ALL OF SE OREGON /EXCLUDING SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY/ AND SW
IDAHO...INCLUDING THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY NORTH INTO THE UPPER
WEISER BASIN AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BOISE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...SO AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...INCLUDING MOUNTAIN HOME...JEROME...AND TWIN FALLS...WILL
SEE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BAND OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY AS THE
FLOW AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
QPF TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET. ACCUMULATING SNOWS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE UPPER TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEYS...WHILE REMAINING COOL IN THE NORTH WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 50S. A WARMER AND DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH ENTERS
WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A DEEP SURFACE LOW /DOWN TO AROUND 990 MB/
NEAR THE PACNW COAST WILL ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OREGON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY AND BAKER
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS /IN
THE 70S/ ACROSS THE UPPER TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON A
PROGRESSIVE UNSETTLED PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL COOL HIGHS TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO THE
5 TO 6 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING THE
TROUGH WILL BRING EVEN COOLER AIR AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS TO UNDER 5000 FEET WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS. ACCORDING
TO MODELS THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY FURTHER NORTH...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF OREGON. SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION IS EXPECTED TO END THE SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE AREA WEST AND NORTH OF KJER/KTWF. EXPECT
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE 7K TO 8K FT MSL. THE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN A NORTHWARD SHIFT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. SURFACE
WINDS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 5-15 KTS DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS BY 06Z. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO AROUND 30 KTS AT
10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY ON SATURDAY...THEN MORE SHOWERS
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS66 KMFR 231934
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1235 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY SW TO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. SOUTH TO NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DECREASES AND WILL BE CANCELING THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY. RAINFALL AT THE COAST RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT SO FAR AROUND 5 INCHES AT RED
MOUND AND 4.5 INCHES NEAR CAPE FERRELO. THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE
CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF...FOR SW OREGON UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOWERS CONTINUING ALL DAY FOR EAST OF THE CASCADES
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA..WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS MTNS, AS
WELL AS MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS
IMPORTANT AND WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE VERY
STRONG WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION AND
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA,
DRAPED ALONG AND NEAR THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES. THIS STALLED FRONT IS CAUSING TOTAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THIS AREAS, AND PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ELSEWHERE. IN THE VALLEYS IN THIS SAME AREA CONDITIONS ARE A MIX OF
VFR AND IFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN, BUT EMBEDDED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WILL EVENTUALLY REDEVELOP BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT CURRENT REDUCED
CIGS/VIS WITH THE FRONT WILL TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD KLMT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AT KMFR BEFORE ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE WEAKENED THIS MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TODAY DUE TO MODERATE WEST SWELL. THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG TO VERY STRONG
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE 130W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130W SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY, ALONG WITH 20
FOOT SEAS OR GREATER. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND AND SEAS MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BTL/BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...23/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS LOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL BRING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY IN THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWN SOME THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE
COAST...BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST
AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED
THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. OTHER AMOUNTS WILL BE 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES
IN DOUGLAS COUNTY...1-3 INCHES IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO
1.5" IN JACKSON COUNTY. 0.10" TO 0.50" INCHES WILL FALL IN THE
EAST SIDE VALLEYS...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND START TO SHEAR FRIDAY.
IN RESPONSE A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL PUMP UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
STATES...AND THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT CLEARS TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GET QUITE
INTERESTING OFFSHORE AS A LOW WINDS UP UNDER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SHEARING TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH
NORTHEAST INSIDE 130W. THE TRACK AND DEEPENING OF THE LOW WILL BE
CRITICAL AS FAR AS HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST ARE CONCERNED. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH...AROUND 990 MB...FOR A WARNING ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND. HOWEVER...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WET FROM THE
CASCADES WEST WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA SUNDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEY WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL
SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN
QUESTION...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES
LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. THE
OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK...SO
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO THE 5000 TO 7000 FOOT
RANGE. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ031.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/BTL/BPN










000
FXUS66 KMFR 231934
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1235 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY SW TO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. SOUTH TO NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DECREASES AND WILL BE CANCELING THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY. RAINFALL AT THE COAST RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT SO FAR AROUND 5 INCHES AT RED
MOUND AND 4.5 INCHES NEAR CAPE FERRELO. THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE
CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF...FOR SW OREGON UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOWERS CONTINUING ALL DAY FOR EAST OF THE CASCADES
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA..WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS MTNS, AS
WELL AS MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS
IMPORTANT AND WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE VERY
STRONG WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION AND
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA,
DRAPED ALONG AND NEAR THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES. THIS STALLED FRONT IS CAUSING TOTAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THIS AREAS, AND PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ELSEWHERE. IN THE VALLEYS IN THIS SAME AREA CONDITIONS ARE A MIX OF
VFR AND IFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN, BUT EMBEDDED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WILL EVENTUALLY REDEVELOP BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT CURRENT REDUCED
CIGS/VIS WITH THE FRONT WILL TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD KLMT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AT KMFR BEFORE ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE WEAKENED THIS MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TODAY DUE TO MODERATE WEST SWELL. THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG TO VERY STRONG
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE 130W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130W SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY, ALONG WITH 20
FOOT SEAS OR GREATER. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND AND SEAS MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BTL/BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...23/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS LOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL BRING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY IN THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWN SOME THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE
COAST...BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST
AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED
THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. OTHER AMOUNTS WILL BE 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES
IN DOUGLAS COUNTY...1-3 INCHES IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO
1.5" IN JACKSON COUNTY. 0.10" TO 0.50" INCHES WILL FALL IN THE
EAST SIDE VALLEYS...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND START TO SHEAR FRIDAY.
IN RESPONSE A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL PUMP UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
STATES...AND THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT CLEARS TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GET QUITE
INTERESTING OFFSHORE AS A LOW WINDS UP UNDER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SHEARING TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH
NORTHEAST INSIDE 130W. THE TRACK AND DEEPENING OF THE LOW WILL BE
CRITICAL AS FAR AS HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST ARE CONCERNED. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH...AROUND 990 MB...FOR A WARNING ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND. HOWEVER...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WET FROM THE
CASCADES WEST WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA SUNDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEY WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL
SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN
QUESTION...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES
LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. THE
OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK...SO
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO THE 5000 TO 7000 FOOT
RANGE. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ031.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/BTL/BPN










000
FXUS66 KMFR 231934
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1235 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY SW TO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. SOUTH TO NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DECREASES AND WILL BE CANCELING THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY. RAINFALL AT THE COAST RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT SO FAR AROUND 5 INCHES AT RED
MOUND AND 4.5 INCHES NEAR CAPE FERRELO. THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE
CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF...FOR SW OREGON UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOWERS CONTINUING ALL DAY FOR EAST OF THE CASCADES
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA..WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS MTNS, AS
WELL AS MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS
IMPORTANT AND WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE VERY
STRONG WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION AND
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA,
DRAPED ALONG AND NEAR THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES. THIS STALLED FRONT IS CAUSING TOTAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THIS AREAS, AND PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ELSEWHERE. IN THE VALLEYS IN THIS SAME AREA CONDITIONS ARE A MIX OF
VFR AND IFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN, BUT EMBEDDED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WILL EVENTUALLY REDEVELOP BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT CURRENT REDUCED
CIGS/VIS WITH THE FRONT WILL TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD KLMT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AT KMFR BEFORE ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE WEAKENED THIS MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TODAY DUE TO MODERATE WEST SWELL. THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG TO VERY STRONG
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE 130W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130W SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY, ALONG WITH 20
FOOT SEAS OR GREATER. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND AND SEAS MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BTL/BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...23/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS LOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL BRING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY IN THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWN SOME THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE
COAST...BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST
AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED
THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. OTHER AMOUNTS WILL BE 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES
IN DOUGLAS COUNTY...1-3 INCHES IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO
1.5" IN JACKSON COUNTY. 0.10" TO 0.50" INCHES WILL FALL IN THE
EAST SIDE VALLEYS...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND START TO SHEAR FRIDAY.
IN RESPONSE A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL PUMP UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
STATES...AND THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT CLEARS TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GET QUITE
INTERESTING OFFSHORE AS A LOW WINDS UP UNDER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SHEARING TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH
NORTHEAST INSIDE 130W. THE TRACK AND DEEPENING OF THE LOW WILL BE
CRITICAL AS FAR AS HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST ARE CONCERNED. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH...AROUND 990 MB...FOR A WARNING ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND. HOWEVER...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WET FROM THE
CASCADES WEST WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA SUNDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEY WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL
SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN
QUESTION...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES
LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. THE
OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK...SO
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO THE 5000 TO 7000 FOOT
RANGE. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ031.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/BTL/BPN










000
FXUS66 KMFR 231934
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1235 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY SW TO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. SOUTH TO NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DECREASES AND WILL BE CANCELING THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY. RAINFALL AT THE COAST RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT SO FAR AROUND 5 INCHES AT RED
MOUND AND 4.5 INCHES NEAR CAPE FERRELO. THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE
CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF...FOR SW OREGON UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOWERS CONTINUING ALL DAY FOR EAST OF THE CASCADES
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA..WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS MTNS, AS
WELL AS MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS
IMPORTANT AND WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE VERY
STRONG WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION AND
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA,
DRAPED ALONG AND NEAR THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES. THIS STALLED FRONT IS CAUSING TOTAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THIS AREAS, AND PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ELSEWHERE. IN THE VALLEYS IN THIS SAME AREA CONDITIONS ARE A MIX OF
VFR AND IFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN, BUT EMBEDDED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WILL EVENTUALLY REDEVELOP BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT CURRENT REDUCED
CIGS/VIS WITH THE FRONT WILL TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD KLMT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AT KMFR BEFORE ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE WEAKENED THIS MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TODAY DUE TO MODERATE WEST SWELL. THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG TO VERY STRONG
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE 130W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130W SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY, ALONG WITH 20
FOOT SEAS OR GREATER. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND AND SEAS MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BTL/BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...23/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS LOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL BRING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY IN THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWN SOME THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE
COAST...BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST
AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED
THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. OTHER AMOUNTS WILL BE 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES
IN DOUGLAS COUNTY...1-3 INCHES IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO
1.5" IN JACKSON COUNTY. 0.10" TO 0.50" INCHES WILL FALL IN THE
EAST SIDE VALLEYS...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND START TO SHEAR FRIDAY.
IN RESPONSE A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL PUMP UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
STATES...AND THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT CLEARS TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GET QUITE
INTERESTING OFFSHORE AS A LOW WINDS UP UNDER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SHEARING TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH
NORTHEAST INSIDE 130W. THE TRACK AND DEEPENING OF THE LOW WILL BE
CRITICAL AS FAR AS HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST ARE CONCERNED. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH...AROUND 990 MB...FOR A WARNING ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND. HOWEVER...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WET FROM THE
CASCADES WEST WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA SUNDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEY WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL
SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN
QUESTION...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES
LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. THE
OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK...SO
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO THE 5000 TO 7000 FOOT
RANGE. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ031.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/BTL/BPN










000
FXUS66 KPDT 231728 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1028 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. IN ADDITION WEAK UPPER
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH WILL SEE MAINLY SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING OVER MOST, BUT NOT ALL, AREAS. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STRAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK, THOUGH DID EXTEND
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
INTO GRANT COUNTY. ALSO RAISED POPS OVER THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS
VALLEYS FOR THIS MORNING. OTHER UPDATES INCLUDED ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH
TEMPS, SKY COVER AND WINDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS IS GOOD THROUGH TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE FADES LATE IN
THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE SHIFTING
EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD (CATEGORICAL OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES)...AND IT WILL BE VERY WINDY IN MANY AREAS. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR CENTRAL OREGON...THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO NEAR 4500-5000 FEET LATE SUNDAY AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AS
PRECIPITATION ALSO TAPERS OFF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ANY
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE GFS AND
ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS STRENGTHENS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DURING
THE MID WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF DEEPENS A TROUGH OFFSHORE. I AM LEANING
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY CONSERVATIVE WITH
POPS AND TEMPERATURES AND KEEP THE FORECAST CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
BKN-OVC SKIES WITH BASES BETWEEN 4000-10000 FEET AND HIGHER CLOUDS
ABOVE. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO IFR IN AREAS OF
RAIN...MAINLY NEAR KRDM AND KBDN. SW-W WINDS 8-15 KNOTS GUSTING TO
25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN DIURNAL TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS WILL PREVAIL. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THIN OUT
ON FRIDAY MORNING...BUT CIRRUS SHOULD PERSIST.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  47  60  43 /  60  20  30  40
ALW  64  50  61  48 /  60  20  30  40
PSC  67  47  61  45 /  40  10  10  40
YKM  60  41  57  41 /  40  20  20  50
HRI  66  46  61  43 /  50  20  20  40
ELN  61  39  55  41 /  40  20  10  60
RDM  61  39  58  39 /  60  30  70  20
LGD  60  47  58  43 /  80  40  60  20
GCD  60  43  57  42 /  70  40  60  10
DLS  63  45  59  46 /  50  20  50  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/85/82







000
FXUS66 KPQR 231626
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
923 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVELY COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING VERY STRONG WIND TO THE COAST AND WINDY CONDITIONS
INLAND...BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE STILL IN DOUBT. ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TODAY THRU SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH
MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. A LARGE SWATH OF COLD AIR CUMULUS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT OVER THE AREA TODAY.
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OFFSHORE WITHIN THIS CUMULUS
FIELD SO CANNOT RULE OUT A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SW-W 850 MB FLOW OF 15-25 KT WILL PROVIDE GOOD
OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE OREGON COAST RANGE...SW
WA WILLAPA HILLS...AND THE CASCADE ZONES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...BUT DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
ALL THE MODELS SHOW A NEW LOW DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE OFFSHORE
LONG WAVE TROUGH...THEN LIFTING NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.
WHILE SOME DETAILS VARY AMONGST THE MODELS...THE MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR SOME MORE RAIN. MODELS THEN SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MORE WIND
AND RAIN. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE REGARDING THE
TIMING...TRACK AND OVERALL STRENGHT OF THIS DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.
THE LATEST NAM LOOKS TO BE THE QUICKEST MOVING THE LOW INTO THE S
WASHINGTON WATERS SAT AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS SLIGHLY SLOWER AND HAS
THE LOW CENTER INTO WRN WA BY 00Z SUN. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST BUT
ALSO HAS THE LOW CENTER ALONG THE WA COASTLINE AS WELL. THERE IS
REASONABLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THE COASTAL AREAS COULD GET ANOTHER SHOT
OF HIGH WIND. THE BIGGER QUESTION MARK IS HOW MUCH WIND THE INLAND
AREAS RECEIVE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND GUSTS
FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE SAT AFTEROON. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED
AS A HEADS UP TO THIS POSSIBILITY. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS SYSTEM AND MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000 FT SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO CASCADE PASSES MAY
SEE SOME SNOW BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH MUCH LESS AGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS. IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH
THE 00Z EURO IN THE UPPER LEVELS STARTING MIDWEEK. BOWEN/TJ

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF SHOWERS TODAY WILL OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND MVFR CONDITIONS
INLAND...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY TODAY AS
SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN SPREADS OVER THE REGION. THE VFR TREND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT DEPENDING ON BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY
DEVELOP TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z
FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PERIODS OF SHOWERS TODAY WILL OCCASIONALLY
PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE MAIN
STORY. THE VFR TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT DEPENDING
ON BREAKS IN THE MID TO UPPER CLOUDS TONIGHT...IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...AFTER SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT TODAY ACROSS THE
WATERS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LESS WIND TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND ALLOW SEAS TO DROP BELOW 10 FT FOR FRIDAY.

HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
WELL OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND TRACK EITHER NORTHWARD
OR NORTHEASTWARD JUST BEYOND OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE
SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WHERE IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW. MODELS SUGGEST LANDFALL WILL OCCUR
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT
SEEMS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE IS MOST LIKELY. A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
REGARDLESS OF THE TRACKS PROVIDED BY VARIOUS MODELS...GALE FORCE
WINDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT IF THE
STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK PANS OUT. SEAS WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY BECOME STEEP AND WIND DOMINATED...POSSIBLY REACHING
UPWARDS OF 20 FT LATE SATURDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT THE DETAILS AT THIS
POINT IN TIME REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MODELS DO SUGGEST SEAS WILL RELAX
IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM TO
     7 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KMFR 231616
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
916 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY SW TO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. SOUTH TO NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DECREASES AND WILL BE CANCELING THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY. RAINFALL AT THE COAST RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT SO FAR AROUND 5 INCHES AT RED
MOUND AND 4.5 INCHES NEAR CAPE FERRELO. THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE
CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF...FOR SW OREGON UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOWERS CONTINUING ALL DAY FOR EAST OF THE CASCADES
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA..WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS MTNS, AS
WELL AS MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS
IMPORTANT AND WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE VERY
STRONG WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION AND
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/12Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONT IS  BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. FOR
MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF THE CASCADES AND ALONG THE COAST, MVFR WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGH THE MORNING, ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS HERE AND THERE. IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY AND THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AS WELL AS THE EAST
SIDE, VFR WILL PREVAIL, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WITHIN AREAS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. STEADY RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. TONIGHT, INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
FOG AND LOW STRATUS AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH MID TONIGHT
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR. TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AND ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 0200 AM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE WEAKENED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT DUE TO MODERATE WEST SWELL
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE 130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY, ALONG WITH 20
FOOT SEAS OR GREATER. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. -CC/BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...23/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS LOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL BRING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY IN THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWN SOME THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE
COAST...BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST
AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED
THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. OTHER AMOUNTS WILL BE 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES
IN DOUGLAS COUNTY...1-3 INCHES IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO
1.5" IN JACKSON COUNTY. 0.10" TO 0.50" INCHES WILL FALL IN THE
EAST SIDE VALLEYS...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND START TO SHEAR FRIDAY.
IN RESPONSE A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL PUMP UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
STATES...AND THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT CLEARS TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GET QUITE
INTERESTING OFFSHORE AS A LOW WINDS UP UNDER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SHEARING TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH
NORTHEAST INSIDE 130W. THE TRACK AND DEEPENING OF THE LOW WILL BE
CRITICAL AS FAR AS HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST ARE CONCERNED. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH...AROUND 990 MB...FOR A WARNING ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND. HOWEVER...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WET FROM THE
CASCADES WEST WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA SUNDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEY WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL
SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN
QUESTION...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES
LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. THE
OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK...SO
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO THE 5000 TO 7000 FOOT
RANGE. BTL

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/06Z TAF CYCLE. A FRONT IS PUSHING
INTO THE CASCADES THIS MORNING AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING RAIN WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT, SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AREAS OF MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VIS WILL PERSIST OVER
INLAND AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE
CASCADES AND THEN SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND
ALONG THE COAST, EXPECT SHOWERS WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON, THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD AND LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OREGON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING BEHIND IT. DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR FOR MOST AREAS WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING WITH PARTIAL
OBSCURATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH THE FRONT MOVING INLAND
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER. HOWEVER EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. /CC

MARINE...UPDATED 1045 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...WINDS HAVE
LOWERED BEHIND A FRONT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO WESTERLY
SWELL. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE 130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W
SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE
STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES
REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF
ROUND OF CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK. -SPILDE/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ031.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BPN







000
FXUS66 KMFR 231616
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
916 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY SW TO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. SOUTH TO NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DECREASES AND WILL BE CANCELING THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY. RAINFALL AT THE COAST RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT SO FAR AROUND 5 INCHES AT RED
MOUND AND 4.5 INCHES NEAR CAPE FERRELO. THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE
CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF...FOR SW OREGON UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOWERS CONTINUING ALL DAY FOR EAST OF THE CASCADES
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA..WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS MTNS, AS
WELL AS MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS
IMPORTANT AND WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE VERY
STRONG WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION AND
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/12Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONT IS  BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. FOR
MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF THE CASCADES AND ALONG THE COAST, MVFR WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGH THE MORNING, ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS HERE AND THERE. IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY AND THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AS WELL AS THE EAST
SIDE, VFR WILL PREVAIL, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WITHIN AREAS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. STEADY RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. TONIGHT, INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
FOG AND LOW STRATUS AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH MID TONIGHT
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR. TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AND ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 0200 AM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE WEAKENED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT DUE TO MODERATE WEST SWELL
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE 130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY, ALONG WITH 20
FOOT SEAS OR GREATER. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. -CC/BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...23/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS LOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL BRING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY IN THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWN SOME THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE
COAST...BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST
AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED
THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. OTHER AMOUNTS WILL BE 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES
IN DOUGLAS COUNTY...1-3 INCHES IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO
1.5" IN JACKSON COUNTY. 0.10" TO 0.50" INCHES WILL FALL IN THE
EAST SIDE VALLEYS...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND START TO SHEAR FRIDAY.
IN RESPONSE A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL PUMP UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
STATES...AND THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT CLEARS TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GET QUITE
INTERESTING OFFSHORE AS A LOW WINDS UP UNDER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SHEARING TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH
NORTHEAST INSIDE 130W. THE TRACK AND DEEPENING OF THE LOW WILL BE
CRITICAL AS FAR AS HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST ARE CONCERNED. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH...AROUND 990 MB...FOR A WARNING ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND. HOWEVER...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WET FROM THE
CASCADES WEST WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA SUNDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEY WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL
SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN
QUESTION...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES
LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. THE
OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK...SO
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO THE 5000 TO 7000 FOOT
RANGE. BTL

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/06Z TAF CYCLE. A FRONT IS PUSHING
INTO THE CASCADES THIS MORNING AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING RAIN WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT, SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AREAS OF MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VIS WILL PERSIST OVER
INLAND AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE
CASCADES AND THEN SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND
ALONG THE COAST, EXPECT SHOWERS WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON, THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD AND LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OREGON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING BEHIND IT. DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR FOR MOST AREAS WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING WITH PARTIAL
OBSCURATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH THE FRONT MOVING INLAND
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER. HOWEVER EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. /CC

MARINE...UPDATED 1045 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...WINDS HAVE
LOWERED BEHIND A FRONT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO WESTERLY
SWELL. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE 130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W
SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE
STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES
REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF
ROUND OF CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK. -SPILDE/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ031.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BPN







000
FXUS66 KPDT 231554
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
854 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. IN ADDITION WEAK UPPER
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH WILL SEE MAINLY SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING OVER MOST, BUT NOT ALL, AREAS. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STRAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK, THOUGH DID EXTEND
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
INTO GRANT COUNTY. ALSO RAISED POPS OVER THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS
VALLEYS FOR THIS MORNING. OTHER UPDATES INCLUDED ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH
TEMPS, SKY COVER AND WINDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS IS GOOD THROUGH TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE FADES LATE IN
THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE SHIFTING
EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD (CATEGORICAL OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES)...AND IT WILL BE VERY WINDY IN MANY AREAS. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR CENTRAL OREGON...THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO NEAR 4500-5000 FEET LATE SUNDAY AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AS
PRECIPITATION ALSO TAPERS OFF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ANY
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE GFS AND
ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS STRENGTHENS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DURING
THE MID WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF DEEPENS A TROUGH OFFSHORE. I AM LEANING
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY CONSERVATIVE WITH
POPS AND TEMPERATURES AND KEEP THE FORECAST CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH BKN-OVC SKIES WITH BASES BETWEEN 4000-10000 FEET AND
HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY NEAR KRDM AND KBDN. SW-W WINDS 8-15 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  47  60  43 /  60  20  30  40
ALW  64  50  61  48 /  60  20  30  40
PSC  67  47  61  45 /  40  10  10  40
YKM  60  41  57  41 /  40  20  20  50
HRI  66  46  61  43 /  50  20  20  40
ELN  61  39  55  41 /  40  20  10  60
RDM  61  39  58  39 /  60  30  70  20
LGD  60  47  58  43 /  80  40  60  20
GCD  60  43  57  42 /  70  40  60  10
DLS  63  45  59  46 /  50  20  50  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/85/82








000
FXUS65 KBOI 231546
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
946 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE
AND RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT-MODERATE
RAIN ENCOMPASSING SE OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO...WITH THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP NEAR MOUNTAIN HOME. THE LATEST MODELS
SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL NOT
MOVE ANY FURTHER SOUTH...THEREBY KEEPING IT DRY INTO THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS HAVE ALSO INCREASED...ESPECIALLY
IN THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UP TO 1.5 INCH TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
7500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SNOW ABOVE 8K FT MSL. ELSEWHERE EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LOCALLY MVFR RAIN SHOWERS WEST AND
NORTH OF KJER/KTWF CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS...VARIABLE 5-15 KTS THEN MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO AROUND 30 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION DECREASING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
ENDING FRIDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY SATURDAY...THEN MORE SHOWERS
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING
PRECIPITATION AND THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE
PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE
TRENDING HIGHER WITH QPF TOTALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS DIRECTING AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER OF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PLUME WILL
STALL OUT OVER THE AREA BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD FRIDAY VIA A WARM
FRONT. THE ONLY AREAS THAT MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP ARE THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. 700 MB WINDS OF
35-45KT FAVOR TERRAIN FOCUSED PRECIPITATION...WITH MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 1.25 INCH OF QPF. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS IN
OREGON LATER THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. SNOW
LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE OVER 9000FT SOUTH OF MOUNTAIN HOME AND
7500FT MSL NORTH AND WEST OF MCCALL. BREEZY SURFACE WINDS SW
15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 35KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL DIG
AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SENDING A WARM FRONT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
THE DAY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ENDING
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RAPID CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL WITH WARMING FRIDAY AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS WINDY BUT
MILD IN A WARM SECTOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THROUGH MID-DAY
SATURDAY. OUR AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF WARM FRONTAL RAIN AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW THAT LIFTS NORTH FROM BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY COUNTIES
FRIDAY EVENING. MILD WARM SECTOR BREEZES WILL CONTINUE OVER
OREGON EARLY SAT. AND SW IDAHO MOST OF THE DAY...AHEAD OF
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONTAL SHOWERS THAT BEGIN ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BRING ABUNDANT SHEAR BUT BEST
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA SO NO
THUNDERSTORM MENTION NOW. BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY UNTIL
A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES SW IDAHO PROBABLY SATURDAY
EVENING WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THAN 12Z PACKAGE. BREEZY AND COOLER
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES BY. MODEL AGREEMENT IS STILL
SIMILAR WITH DRIER NW FLOW MONDAY AND WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE W
FLOW TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GFS/EC
ARE NOT IN PHASE OVER THE INLAND NW THOUGH BOTH HAVE SOME
TROUGHING OFFSHORE /AS DOES THE GEFS. SO WENT NEAR CLIMO POPS NEAR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....VM




000
FXUS66 KPDT 231051 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
350 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AND PERSISTENT UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OFF THE COAST THROUGH TODAY. A SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH IS PULLING SHOWERS UP AND
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. THERE ARE ABUNDANT SHOWERS BEING SHOWN
ON RADAR IMAGERY WITH THE SATELLITE SHOWING THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO THE REGION VIA AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE. A
WAVE IS FORMING ALONG THIS BAND OF MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON
AND THIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND
CANNOT RULE OUT EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD TO THE IDAHO BORDER. HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SO WILL ONLY GO WITH ISOLATED. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING UP
ACROSS THE CWA WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
THE COAST. THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND IT WILL BECOME LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS GOOD THROUGH TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE FADES
LATE IN THE PERIOD.  MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE
SHIFTING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD (CATEGORICAL OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES)...AND IT WILL BE VERY WINDY IN MANY AREAS. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR CENTRAL OREGON...THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT.  SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO NEAR 4500-5000 FEET LATE
SUNDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AS PRECIPITATION ALSO TAPERS OFF BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.  ANY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS STRENGTHENS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. DURING THE MID WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF DEEPENS A TROUGH OFFSHORE.
I AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS AND TEMPERATURES AND KEEP THE FORECAST CLOSE
TO CLIMATOLOGY.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH BKN-OVC
SKIES WITH BASES BETWEEN 4000-10000 FEET AND HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE.
CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY NEAR
KRDM AND KBDN. SW-W WINDS 8-15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65  47  60  43 /  50  20  30  40
ALW  65  50  61  48 /  60  20  30  40
PSC  67  47  61  45 /  40  10  10  40
YKM  62  41  57  41 /  40  20  20  50
HRI  67  46  61  43 /  40  20  20  40
ELN  59  39  55  41 /  40  20  10  60
RDM  60  39  58  39 /  40  30  70  20
LGD  59  47  58  43 /  80  40  60  20
GCD  58  43  57  42 /  70  40  60  10
DLS  63  45  59  46 /  40  20  50  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85







000
FXUS65 KBOI 231011
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
411 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING
PRECIPITATION AND THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE
PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE
TRENDING HIGHER WITH QPF TOTALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS DIRECTING AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER OF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PLUME WILL
STALL OUT OVER THE AREA BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD FRIDAY VIA A WARM
FRONT. THE ONLY AREAS THAT MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP ARE THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. 700 MB WINDS OF
35-45KT FAVOR TERRAIN FOCUSED PRECIPITATION...WITH MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 1.25 INCH OF QPF. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS IN
OREGON LATER THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. SNOW
LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE OVER 9000FT SOUTH OF MOUNTAIN HOME AND
7500FT MSL NORTH AND WEST OF MCCALL. BREEZY SURFACE WINDS SW
15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 35KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL DIG
AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SENDING A WARM FRONT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
THE DAY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ENDING
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RAPID CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL WITH WARMING FRIDAY AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS WINDY BUT
MILD IN A WARM SECTOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THROUGH MID-DAY
SATURDAY. OUR AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF WARM FRONTAL RAIN AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW THAT LIFTS NORTH FROM BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY COUNTIES
FRIDAY EVENING. MILD WARM SECTOR BREEZES WILL CONTINUE OVER
OREGON EARLY SAT. AND SW IDAHO MOST OF THE DAY...AHEAD OF
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONTAL SHOWERS THAT BEGIN ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BRING ABUNDANT SHEAR BUT BEST
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA SO NO
THUNDERSTORM MENTION NOW. BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY UNTIL
A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES SW IDAHO PROBABLY SATURDAY
EVENING WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THAN 12Z PACKAGE. BREEZY AND COOLER
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES BY. MODEL AGREEMENT IS STILL
SIMILAR WITH DRIER NW FLOW MONDAY AND WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE W
FLOW TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GFS/EC
ARE NOT IN PHASE OVER THE INLAND NW THOUGH BOTH HAVE SOME
TROUGHING OFFSHORE /AS DOES THE GEFS. SO WENT NEAR CLIMO POPS NEAR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR RAIN WITH SNOW ABOVE 7000FT MSL...POSSIBLE IFR IN
KMYL. GENERALLY VFR SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM REO-MUO.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY SE 5-15KT IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...BREEZY SW 15-25KT IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON...LIGHT WINDS MAGIC VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K
FEET MSL...WSW 30-45KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231006
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
306 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR CUMULUS
OFFSHORE THAT WILL SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE NEXT RATHER
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED
STRONG COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH A BOUT OF FAIRLY STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST AND
POSSIBLY INLAND. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY...THERE IS A
GOOD AREA OF COLD AIR CUMULUS AND SHOWERS WITH A BIT OF CONSISTENT
LIGHTNING OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THAT WILL SPREAD ONSHORE TODAY FOR
MORE SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THEM...SO A THREAT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOME
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...BUT THEN ALL THE MODELS SHOW A NEW
LOW DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH...THEN
LIFTING NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. WHILE SOME DETAILS VARY
AMONGST THE MODELS...THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOME MORE RAIN
WHILE CAUSING EAST WINDS TO0 DEVELOP. THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ONSHORE LATE SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS
DISAGREE ON WHERE...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND AS WELL. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS SYSTEM AND MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINDS IN THE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
BOWEN/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. A WARM FRONT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000 FT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY SO CASCADE PASSES MAY SEE SOME SNOW BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT A
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH MUCH
LESS AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS ALMOST
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE 00Z EURO IN THE UPPER LEVELS
STARTING MIDWEEK. BOWEN/TJ

&&

.AVIATION...WITH THE COLD FRONT DOWN INTO SW OREGON THIS MORNING
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE SHOWERS ESP
BEFORE 03Z THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME OF THE
SHOWERS THROUGH 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...QUIETER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND
FRI WITH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20 KTS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO
JUST UNDER 10 FT BY FRI.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITHE BOTH THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...A DEEP LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE SW FRI NIGHT...AND MOVE NE UP OFF THE OREGON COAST
SAT...AND INLAND OVER NW WA SAT NIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN STORM FORCE
GUSTS LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS BUILDING
AS HIGH AS 20 FT. A COASTAL JET WOULD LIKELY ENHANCE NEARSHORE
WINDS SAT EVENING.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPDT 230920
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
220 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AND PERSISTENT UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OFF THE COAST THROUGH TODAY. A SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH IS PULLING SHOWERS UP AND
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. THERE ARE ABUNDANT SHOWERS BEING SHOWN
ON RADAR IMAGERY WITH THE SATELLITE SHOWING THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO THE REGION VIA AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE. A
WAVE IS FORMING ALONG THIS BAND OF MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON
AND THIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND
CANNOT RULE OUT EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD TO THE IDAHO BORDER. HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SO WILL ONLY GO WITH ISOLATED. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING UP
ACROSS THE CWA WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
THE COAST. THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND IT WILL BECOME LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS GOOD THROUGH TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE FADES
LATE IN THE PERIOD.  MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE
SHIFTING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD (CATEGORICAL OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES)...AND IT WILL BE VERY WINDY IN MANY AREAS. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR CENTRAL OREGON...THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT.  SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO NEAR 4500-5000 FEET LATE
SUNDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AS PRECIPITATION ALSO TAPERS OFF BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.  ANY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS STRENGTHENS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. DURING THE MID WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF DEEPENS A TROUGH OFFSHORE.
I AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS AND TEMPERATURES AND KEEP THE FORECAST CLOSE
TO CLIMATOLOGY.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...OVERCAST SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME BROKEN ON
THURSDAY BUT REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND GUSTY AT TIMES. WINDS WILL LESSEN SOME
OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME 15 TO 25 MPH AND SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND
MIDDAY THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65  47  60  43 /  50  20  30  40
ALW  65  50  61  48 /  60  20  30  40
PSC  67  47  61  45 /  40  10  10  40
YKM  62  41  57  41 /  40  20  20  50
HRI  67  46  61  43 /  40  20  20  40
ELN  59  39  55  41 /  40  20  10  60
RDM  60  39  58  39 /  40  30  70  20
LGD  59  47  58  43 /  80  40  60  20
GCD  58  43  57  42 /  70  40  60  10
DLS  63  45  59  46 /  40  20  50  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85






000
FXUS66 KMFR 230800
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
100 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...23/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS LOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL BRING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY IN THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWN SOME THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE
COAST...BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST
AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED
THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. OTHER AMOUNTS WILL BE 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES
IN DOUGLAS COUNTY...1-3 INCHES IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO
1.5" IN JACKSON COUNTY. 0.10" TO 0.50" INCHES WILL FALL IN THE
EAST SIDE VALLEYS...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND START TO SHEAR FRIDAY.
IN RESPONSE A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL PUMP UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
STATES...AND THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT CLEARS TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GET QUITE
INTERESTING OFFSHORE AS A LOW WINDS UP UNDER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SHEARING TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH
NORTHEAST INSIDE 130W. THE TRACK AND DEEPENING OF THE LOW WILL BE
CRITICAL AS FAR AS HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST ARE CONCERNED. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH...AROUND 990 MB...FOR A WARNING ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND. HOWEVER...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WET FROM THE
CASCADES WEST WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA SUNDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEY WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL
SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN
QUESTION...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES
LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. THE
OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK...SO
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO THE 5000 TO 7000 FOOT
RANGE. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/06Z TAF CYCLE. A FRONT IS PUSHING
INTO THE CASCADES THIS MORNING AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING RAIN WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT, SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AREAS OF MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VIS WILL PERSIST OVER
INLAND AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE
CASCADES AND THEN SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND
ALONG THE COAST, EXPECT SHOWERS WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON, THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD AND LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OREGON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING BEHIND IT. DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR FOR MOST AREAS WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING WITH PARTIAL
OBSCURATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH THE FRONT MOVING INLAND
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER. HOWEVER EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1045 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...WINDS HAVE
LOWERED BEHIND A FRONT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO WESTERLY
SWELL. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE 130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W
SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE
STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES
REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF
ROUND OF CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK. -SPILDE/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
        8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

15/15/11





000
FXUS66 KPDT 230519
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1019 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS FRONT HAS BEEN
MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BEING PUSHED EASTWARD BY A
SHORTWAVE COMING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH. CURRENTLY THE
FRONT STRETCHES FROM SPOKANE THROUGH PENDLETON AND DOWN TO MEDFORD.
THIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING A STEADY LIGHT RAIN. BEHIND IT A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH CONTINUED BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE ON THURSDAY FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE SOME BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT BUT FOCUSED MORE OVER OREGON AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...OVERCAST SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BECOME BROKEN ON THURSDAY BUT REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY OUT OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND GUSTY AT TIMES. WINDS
WILL LESSEN SOME OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME 15 TO 25 MPH AND SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 358 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE FLOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. AS SUCH, EXPECT GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIP AREAWIDE
DURING THE TONIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE LOCALLY BREEZY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS, THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, THE WALLOWA VALLEY AND THE
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF BREEZY WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ON THURSDAY,
EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND
OVER THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY INDICATED OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO WARRANT INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER. THE SHOWERS
WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHWARD DIGGING OF THE OFFSHORE UPPER
TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED DIGGING BY THE TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN
AN EXPECTED SLOW DOWN OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM. AT
THIS TIME STILL EXPECT THIS NEXT SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT WITH A SLOWER TIMING. THUS WILL SHOW THE WARM
FRONTAL PRECIP MAINLY AFFECTING OUR OREGON ZONES FRIDAY AND OUR
WASHINGTON ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5000
FEET THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. 90

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY
DRY...EXCEPT ALONG THE CASCADES. HOWEVER...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED OF 15 TO 25 MPH. THEN AS THE UPPER TROF AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WINDS WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY AND SURGES OF MOISTURE WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE 4500 IN
WASHINGTON AND ABOVE 5000 IN OREGON SO IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT
IS POSSIBLE THIS TROUGH MAY CONTAIN SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM ANA AS IT GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE
WESTERLY FLOW AND MERGES WITH A MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS DO NOT AGREE WELL ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS CONFIDENCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
WHEN AND WHERE. COBB



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  68  47  61 / 100  50  20  30
ALW  55  68  50  62 / 100  60  20  30
PSC  55  69  47  64 / 100  30  10  10
YKM  46  62  41  59 / 100  20  20  20
HRI  53  69  46  63 / 100  30  20  20
ELN  47  61  39  60 / 100  20  20  10
RDM  48  62  39  58 /  90  40  30  70
LGD  52  61  47  58 /  90  80  40  50
GCD  48  61  43  58 /  90  70  40  60
DLS  53  65  45  60 / 100  40  20  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91







000
FXUS66 KMFR 230400
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
900 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING INLAND TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE CASCADES AND JUST EAST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR INLAND
AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS
HAVE DECREASED SHARPLY ALONG THE COOS COAST AND NORTHERN CURRY
COAST AS WELL AS OVER THE MARINE WATERS. ALSO RAIN WILL TAPER OFF
TO SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. OF NOTE IS THAT THE NAM AND
GFS ARE TOO SLOW WITH MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT INLAND AND HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE 12Z HIGH RESOLUTION ARW MODEL WHICH IS DEPICTING THE
INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT THE BEST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST WEATHER
AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO SHOW THE QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT INLAND TONIGHT AND THRUSDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS BEHIND IT.
ALO BASED ON THE ARW MODEL AND THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF A COLD
POOL WITH SHOWERS OFFSHORE, HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY NORTH OF GOLD BEACH,
FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.

THEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST
AND LINGER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT
A COOL AND SHOWERY AIRMASS TO MOVE OVERHEAD BEHIND THE FRONT. THEN
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS LOW ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND A MID LEVEL JET OF
60 TO 75 KNOTS AT 700 MB MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.MODELS VARY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW BUT GIVEN
CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS, HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY AND INTO THE SUMMER LAKE AREAS WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE AREAS WITH
FUTURE MODELS RUNS AND FORECASTS FOR HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE INLAND SATURDAY WITH THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.


.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PUSHED ONSHORE ENDING THE WINDS AT KOTH
THIS EVENING...AND THE THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BUT MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VIS WILL PERSIST IN AREAS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE, BUT WILL DIMINISH SHARPLY BEHIND IT. LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE IS ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST INLAND DUE STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WEST SIDE THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH TO THE
EAST SIDE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CIGS AT THE TAF
SITES...BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR IN HEAVIER RAINFALL.
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE TOTAL WEST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT THEN
ALL AREAS THURSDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 545 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED AND COME DOWN AT BUOY 15 OFF CAPE BLANCO
THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ABOUT 3-6 HOURS AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE TO MOVE THROUGH. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING FOR PZZ370. GALES AND WARNING LEVEL SEAS WILL END SHARPLY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS BY
LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO WESTERLY
SWELL. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W
SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE
GUSTS SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE ARE GETTING A LOT OF
DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE ROGUE VALLEY AND THIS HAS KEPT RAIN OUR OF
THE AREA. A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND
THIS COULD DELAY THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT FURTHER. AS A RESULT, GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND I HAVE EXTENDED THE
WIND ADVISORY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY
THIS COULD ALSO MEAN THAT RAIN MAY NOT MOVE INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO. THE KLAMATH BASIN WILL SEE PASSING LIGHT
SHOWERS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT..A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS TO HIGH END GALE IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY. WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH IF NEXT MODEL RUN
CONTINUES WITH THIS TREND. /FB

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS...
AMOUNTS IN THE COASTAL ZONES, THUS FAR, THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY
BEEN IN THE 0.25" TO 0.75". RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE
MOVING ONSHORE NOW, SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN SOME TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE COAST, BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH
AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS, WITH MOST
OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED FROM NOW THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. WE
EXPECT 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES ACROSS DOUGLAS COUNTY, 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO 1.5" ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY. ON THE
LOW END, IN THE EAST SIDE VALLEYS, WE EXPECT 0.10" TO 0.50", LOWEST
FAR EASTERN AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MOST OF
THE RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, AND MOST OF THE RAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL DIP TO SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AND WEAKEN
LATER ON THURSDAY, AND THEN THE FRONT WAVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NOT IN SOUTH FLOW FAVORED
LOCATIONS AS A STRONG LOW FORM BETWEEN 130 WEST AND THE OREGON
COAST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS BEHIND IT
EVEN INTO SUNDAY, SO THE WEEKEND LOOKS GENERALLY WET. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST PARAMETER THAN THE PRESENCE OF IT IN THE
FORECAST, SO IT WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT OF A WEEKEND FOR ALL
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY MAY WANE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS.

NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH
MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF
THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN QUESTION, BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY
THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. ALSO, THE OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA
SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME
DOWN SOME, INTO THE 5000 TO 7000FT RANGE. BTL

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PUSHED ONSHORE ENDING THE WINDS AT KOTH
THIS EVENING...AND THE THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BUT MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VIS WILL PERSIST IN AREAS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE, BUT WILL DIMINISH SHARPLY BEHIND IT. LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE IS ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST INLAND DUE STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WEST SIDE THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH TO THE
EAST SIDE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CIGS AT THE TAF
SITES...BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR IN HEAVIER RAINFALL.
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE TOTAL WEST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT THEN
ALL AREAS THURSDAY. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 545 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED AND COME DOWN AT BUOY 15 OFF CAPE BLANCO
THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ABOUT 3-6 HOURS AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE TO MOVE THROUGH. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING FOR PZZ370. GALES AND WARNING LEVEL SEAS WILL END SHARPLY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS BY
LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO WESTERLY
SWELL. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W
SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE
GUSTS SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350.

$$

CC/CC/CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 230400
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
900 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING INLAND TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE CASCADES AND JUST EAST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR INLAND
AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS
HAVE DECREASED SHARPLY ALONG THE COOS COAST AND NORTHERN CURRY
COAST AS WELL AS OVER THE MARINE WATERS. ALSO RAIN WILL TAPER OFF
TO SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. OF NOTE IS THAT THE NAM AND
GFS ARE TOO SLOW WITH MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT INLAND AND HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE 12Z HIGH RESOLUTION ARW MODEL WHICH IS DEPICTING THE
INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT THE BEST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST WEATHER
AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO SHOW THE QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT INLAND TONIGHT AND THRUSDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS BEHIND IT.
ALO BASED ON THE ARW MODEL AND THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF A COLD
POOL WITH SHOWERS OFFSHORE, HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY NORTH OF GOLD BEACH,
FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.

THEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST
AND LINGER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT
A COOL AND SHOWERY AIRMASS TO MOVE OVERHEAD BEHIND THE FRONT. THEN
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS LOW ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND A MID LEVEL JET OF
60 TO 75 KNOTS AT 700 MB MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.MODELS VARY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW BUT GIVEN
CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS, HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY AND INTO THE SUMMER LAKE AREAS WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE AREAS WITH
FUTURE MODELS RUNS AND FORECASTS FOR HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE INLAND SATURDAY WITH THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.


.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PUSHED ONSHORE ENDING THE WINDS AT KOTH
THIS EVENING...AND THE THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BUT MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VIS WILL PERSIST IN AREAS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE, BUT WILL DIMINISH SHARPLY BEHIND IT. LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE IS ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST INLAND DUE STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WEST SIDE THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH TO THE
EAST SIDE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CIGS AT THE TAF
SITES...BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR IN HEAVIER RAINFALL.
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE TOTAL WEST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT THEN
ALL AREAS THURSDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 545 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED AND COME DOWN AT BUOY 15 OFF CAPE BLANCO
THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ABOUT 3-6 HOURS AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE TO MOVE THROUGH. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING FOR PZZ370. GALES AND WARNING LEVEL SEAS WILL END SHARPLY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS BY
LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO WESTERLY
SWELL. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W
SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE
GUSTS SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE ARE GETTING A LOT OF
DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE ROGUE VALLEY AND THIS HAS KEPT RAIN OUR OF
THE AREA. A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND
THIS COULD DELAY THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT FURTHER. AS A RESULT, GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND I HAVE EXTENDED THE
WIND ADVISORY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY
THIS COULD ALSO MEAN THAT RAIN MAY NOT MOVE INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO. THE KLAMATH BASIN WILL SEE PASSING LIGHT
SHOWERS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT..A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS TO HIGH END GALE IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY. WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH IF NEXT MODEL RUN
CONTINUES WITH THIS TREND. /FB

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS...
AMOUNTS IN THE COASTAL ZONES, THUS FAR, THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY
BEEN IN THE 0.25" TO 0.75". RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE
MOVING ONSHORE NOW, SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN SOME TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE COAST, BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH
AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS, WITH MOST
OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED FROM NOW THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. WE
EXPECT 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES ACROSS DOUGLAS COUNTY, 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO 1.5" ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY. ON THE
LOW END, IN THE EAST SIDE VALLEYS, WE EXPECT 0.10" TO 0.50", LOWEST
FAR EASTERN AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MOST OF
THE RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, AND MOST OF THE RAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL DIP TO SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AND WEAKEN
LATER ON THURSDAY, AND THEN THE FRONT WAVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NOT IN SOUTH FLOW FAVORED
LOCATIONS AS A STRONG LOW FORM BETWEEN 130 WEST AND THE OREGON
COAST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS BEHIND IT
EVEN INTO SUNDAY, SO THE WEEKEND LOOKS GENERALLY WET. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST PARAMETER THAN THE PRESENCE OF IT IN THE
FORECAST, SO IT WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT OF A WEEKEND FOR ALL
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY MAY WANE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS.

NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH
MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF
THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN QUESTION, BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY
THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. ALSO, THE OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA
SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME
DOWN SOME, INTO THE 5000 TO 7000FT RANGE. BTL

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PUSHED ONSHORE ENDING THE WINDS AT KOTH
THIS EVENING...AND THE THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BUT MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VIS WILL PERSIST IN AREAS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE, BUT WILL DIMINISH SHARPLY BEHIND IT. LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE IS ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST INLAND DUE STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WEST SIDE THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH TO THE
EAST SIDE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CIGS AT THE TAF
SITES...BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR IN HEAVIER RAINFALL.
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE TOTAL WEST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT THEN
ALL AREAS THURSDAY. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 545 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED AND COME DOWN AT BUOY 15 OFF CAPE BLANCO
THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ABOUT 3-6 HOURS AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE TO MOVE THROUGH. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING FOR PZZ370. GALES AND WARNING LEVEL SEAS WILL END SHARPLY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS BY
LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO WESTERLY
SWELL. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W
SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE
GUSTS SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350.

$$

CC/CC/CC







000
FXUS66 KPQR 230355
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
855 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WET STRONG COLD FRONT WAS FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE
WAVE HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR CUMULUS OFFSHORE THAT WILL SPREAD INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE NEXT RATHER STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD
FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
POSSIBLY WITH A BOUT OF FAIRLY STRONG WINDS. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE WAS A
DECENT SURFACE WAVE THAT MOVED ALONG OUR SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT
PRODUCED SOME MODERATELY STRONG NORTH COASTAL WINDS. THE WAVE HAS
MOVED ONSHORE AND HELPED PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH AND INLAND INTO THE
CASCADES...AND WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY. AS
A RESULT...AREAS THAT HAD PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN TODAY HAS SEEN THE
RAINFALL BREAK UP AND EASE. SOME OF THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE
IMPRESSIVE...WITH 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF 1.5 INCHES OR MORE EVEN IN THE
NORTH VALLEY. AREA RIVERS HAVE CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND
BELIEVE THE THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING IS OVER. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
GOOD AREA OF COLD AIR CUMULUS AND SHOWERS OFF THE COAST THAT WILL
SPREAD ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND SOME DECENT BRIEF RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THEM...SO THERE IS A THREAT OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN ALL THE
MODELS SHOW A NEW LOW DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE OFFSHORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH...THEN LIFTING NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. WHILE
SOME DETAILS VARY AMONGST THE MODELS...THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR SOME MORE RAIN WHILE CAUSING EAST WINDS TO0 DEVELOP. THEN THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT LIKELY MOVES ON SATURDAY FOR MORE RAIN.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ONSHORE AND INLAND SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND AS WELL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS DWINDLING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS
MAY DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES WITH THE
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT
WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW WITH THIS STORM...BUT ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH TJ.
&&

.AVIATION...THE STEADY RAINS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS
WITH SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO THE AREA. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH SPLIT BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR ON THE COAST. SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED IFR CIGS AND VIS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
TEMPORARILY REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON
COASTAL AREAS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BUT THERE
SHOULD BE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS MAY BRING INCREASED MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON. /26
&&

.MARINE...THE LAST LOW THAT MODELS HANDLED SOMEWHAT POORLY MOVED
THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BRINGING
DECENT GALES THERE. WINDS ARE ON THE DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS
ARE SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD BRING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS AS THERE IS STILL THE STRONG ZONAL JET IN ABOUT THE SAME
POSITION AND CONCERN IS FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN WHAT MODELS ARE
DEPICTING RIGHT NOW. SEAS WILL IN GENERAL BE ON THE DECREASE AND
SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 10 FT LATER THURSDAY. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 10
FT.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THIS WEEKENDS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY AGREE A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AROUND 985MB...WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INSIDE 130 W
AND POSSIBLY MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE
NORTH OREGON COAST. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF
LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT. SEAS TO 20 FT SEEM MORE THAN
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.

AFTER A BREAK LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST
NEXT TUESDAY. GALE FORCE TO STORM FORCE WINDS CERTAINLY APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM AS WELL. /NEUMAN /26
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 230355
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
855 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WET STRONG COLD FRONT WAS FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE
WAVE HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR CUMULUS OFFSHORE THAT WILL SPREAD INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE NEXT RATHER STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD
FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
POSSIBLY WITH A BOUT OF FAIRLY STRONG WINDS. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE WAS A
DECENT SURFACE WAVE THAT MOVED ALONG OUR SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT
PRODUCED SOME MODERATELY STRONG NORTH COASTAL WINDS. THE WAVE HAS
MOVED ONSHORE AND HELPED PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH AND INLAND INTO THE
CASCADES...AND WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY. AS
A RESULT...AREAS THAT HAD PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN TODAY HAS SEEN THE
RAINFALL BREAK UP AND EASE. SOME OF THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE
IMPRESSIVE...WITH 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF 1.5 INCHES OR MORE EVEN IN THE
NORTH VALLEY. AREA RIVERS HAVE CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND
BELIEVE THE THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING IS OVER. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
GOOD AREA OF COLD AIR CUMULUS AND SHOWERS OFF THE COAST THAT WILL
SPREAD ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND SOME DECENT BRIEF RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THEM...SO THERE IS A THREAT OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN ALL THE
MODELS SHOW A NEW LOW DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE OFFSHORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH...THEN LIFTING NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. WHILE
SOME DETAILS VARY AMONGST THE MODELS...THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR SOME MORE RAIN WHILE CAUSING EAST WINDS TO0 DEVELOP. THEN THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT LIKELY MOVES ON SATURDAY FOR MORE RAIN.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ONSHORE AND INLAND SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND AS WELL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS DWINDLING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS
MAY DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES WITH THE
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT
WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW WITH THIS STORM...BUT ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH TJ.
&&

.AVIATION...THE STEADY RAINS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS
WITH SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO THE AREA. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH SPLIT BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR ON THE COAST. SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED IFR CIGS AND VIS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
TEMPORARILY REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON
COASTAL AREAS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BUT THERE
SHOULD BE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS MAY BRING INCREASED MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON. /26
&&

.MARINE...THE LAST LOW THAT MODELS HANDLED SOMEWHAT POORLY MOVED
THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BRINGING
DECENT GALES THERE. WINDS ARE ON THE DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS
ARE SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD BRING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS AS THERE IS STILL THE STRONG ZONAL JET IN ABOUT THE SAME
POSITION AND CONCERN IS FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN WHAT MODELS ARE
DEPICTING RIGHT NOW. SEAS WILL IN GENERAL BE ON THE DECREASE AND
SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 10 FT LATER THURSDAY. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 10
FT.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THIS WEEKENDS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY AGREE A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AROUND 985MB...WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INSIDE 130 W
AND POSSIBLY MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE
NORTH OREGON COAST. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF
LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT. SEAS TO 20 FT SEEM MORE THAN
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.

AFTER A BREAK LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST
NEXT TUESDAY. GALE FORCE TO STORM FORCE WINDS CERTAINLY APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM AS WELL. /NEUMAN /26
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPDT 230313
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
813 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS FRONT HAS BEEN
MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BEING PUSHED EASTWARD BY A
SHORTWAVE COMING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH. CURRENTLY THE
FRONT STRETCHES FROM SPOKANE THROUGH PENDLETON AND DOWN TO MEDFORD.
THIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING A STEADY LIGHT RAIN. BEHIND IT A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH CONTINUED BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE ON THURSDAY FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE SOME BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT BUT FOCUSED MORE OVER OREGON AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 358 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE FLOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. AS SUCH, EXPECT GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIP AREAWIDE
DURING THE TONIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE LOCALLY BREEZY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS, THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, THE WALLOWA VALLEY AND THE
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF BREEZY WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ON THURSDAY,
EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND
OVER THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY INDICATED OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO WARRANT INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER. THE SHOWERS
WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHWARD DIGGING OF THE OFFSHORE UPPER
TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED DIGGING BY THE TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN
AN EXPECTED SLOW DOWN OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM. AT
THIS TIME STILL EXPECT THIS NEXT SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT WITH A SLOWER TIMING. THUS WILL SHOW THE WARM
FRONTAL PRECIP MAINLY AFFECTING OUR OREGON ZONES FRIDAY AND OUR
WASHINGTON ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5000
FEET THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. 90

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY
DRY...EXCEPT ALONG THE CASCADES. HOWEVER...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED OF 15 TO 25 MPH. THEN AS THE UPPER TROF AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WINDS WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY AND SURGES OF MOISTURE WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE 4500 IN
WASHINGTON AND ABOVE 5000 IN OREGON SO IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT
IS POSSIBLE THIS TROUGH MAY CONTAIN SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM ANA AS IT GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE
WESTERLY FLOW AND MERGES WITH A MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS DO NOT AGREE WELL ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS CONFIDENCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
WHEN AND WHERE. COBB

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES WILL LOWER TO NEAR MVFR
IN RAIN TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND GUSTY AT TIMES. WINDS WILL LESSEN SOME
BETWEEN 03Z AND 18Z...THEN BECOME 15 TO 25 MPH AND SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20Z.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  68  47  61 / 100  50  20  30
ALW  55  68  50  62 / 100  60  20  30
PSC  55  69  47  64 / 100  30  10  10
YKM  46  62  41  59 / 100  20  20  20
HRI  53  69  46  63 / 100  30  20  20
ELN  47  61  39  60 / 100  20  20  10
RDM  48  62  39  58 /  90  40  30  70
LGD  52  61  47  58 /  90  80  40  50
GCD  48  61  43  58 /  90  70  40  60
DLS  53  65  45  60 / 100  40  20  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91









000
FXUS65 KBOI 230258
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
858 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...WEAK WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE MTNS OF EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND SW
IDAHO AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HAVE
INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER FORECAST ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS.  AT 02Z REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF LIGHT RAIN AT KBKE.  AFTER 09Z
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO KBKE/KBNO/KMYL AND OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.  THURSDAY MORNING THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR KMYL TO DROP TO MVFR CEILINGS.  SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...BECOMING BREEZY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 35 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A MOIST PACIFIC PLUME TO
OUR WEST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND REACH SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW
IDAHO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN STALL OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH ALONG A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOIST PLUME WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE GREATEST. THE ONLY
AREAS THAT MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP ARE THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. QPF TOTALS /FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY/ WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH /0.10/ TO A QUARTER
/O.25/ OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A QUARTER /0.25 TO HALF
/0.50/ INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 7000 FEET. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT /SOUTH OF A BURNS-BOISE-FAIRFIELD LINE/ ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH...THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW. GOOD MIXING WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES. A HEADLINE MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE WINDS DURING THAT PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BREEZY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
SNOW LEVELS FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DROP FROM OVER 10000 FEET
SATURDAY MORNING TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FORECAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING MONDAY AND A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET IN BEHIND IT. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL
A TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE IN AGAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A
MORE SSWERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD...INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON A DAILY BASIS. THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
EACH PASSING TROUGH...POSSIBLY COMING IN THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE
5000 FT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....EP/AB




000
FXUS66 KMFR 230113 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
613 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED MARINE AND AVIATION SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE ARE GETTING A LOT OF
DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE ROGUE VALLEY AND THIS HAS KEPT RAIN OUR OF
THE AREA. A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND
THIS COULD DELAY THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT FURTHER. AS A RESULT, GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND I HAVE EXTENDED THE
WIND ADVISORY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY
THIS COULD ALSO MEAN THAT RAIN MAY NOT MOVE INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO. THE KLAMATH BASIN WILL SEE PASSING LIGHT
SHOWERS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT..A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS TO HIGH END GALE IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY. WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH IF NEXT MODEL RUN
CONTINUES WITH THIS TREND. /FB

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS...
AMOUNTS IN THE COASTAL ZONES, THUS FAR, THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY
BEEN IN THE 0.25" TO 0.75". RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE
MOVING ONSHORE NOW, SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN SOME TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE COAST, BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH
AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS, WITH MOST
OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED FROM NOW THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. WE
EXPECT 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES ACROSS DOUGLAS COUNTY, 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO 1.5" ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY. ON THE
LOW END, IN THE EAST SIDE VALLEYS, WE EXPECT 0.10" TO 0.50", LOWEST
FAR EASTERN AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MOST OF
THE RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, AND MOST OF THE RAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL DIP TO SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AND WEAKEN
LATER ON THURSDAY, AND THEN THE FRONT WAVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NOT IN SOUTH FLOW FAVORED
LOCATIONS AS A STRONG LOW FORM BETWEEN 130 WEST AND THE OREGON
COAST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS BEHIND IT
EVEN INTO SUNDAY, SO THE WEEKEND LOOKS GENERALLY WET. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST PARAMETER THAN THE PRESENCE OF IT IN THE
FORECAST, SO IT WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT OF A WEEKEND FOR ALL
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY MAY WANE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS.

NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH
MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF
THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN QUESTION, BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY
THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. ALSO, THE OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA
SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME
DOWN SOME, INTO THE 5000 TO 7000FT RANGE. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PUSHED ONSHORE ENDING THE WINDS AT KOTH
THIS EVENING...AND THE THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BUT MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VIS WILL PERSIST IN AREAS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE, BUT WILL DIMINISH SHARPLY BEHIND IT. LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE IS ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST INLAND DUE STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WEST SIDE THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH TO THE
EAST SIDE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CIGS AT THE TAF
SITES...BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR IN HEAVIER RAINFALL.
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE TOTAL WEST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT THEN
ALL AREAS THURSDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 545 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED AND COME DOWN AT BUOY 15 OFF CAPE BLANCO
THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ABOUT 3-6 HOURS AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE TO MOVE THROUGH. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING FOR PZZ370. GALES AND WARNING LEVEL SEAS WILL END SHARPLY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS BY
LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO WESTERLY
SWELL. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W
SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE
GUSTS SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350.

$$

MAS/FB/BTL







000
FXUS66 KMFR 230113 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
613 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED MARINE AND AVIATION SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE ARE GETTING A LOT OF
DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE ROGUE VALLEY AND THIS HAS KEPT RAIN OUR OF
THE AREA. A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND
THIS COULD DELAY THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT FURTHER. AS A RESULT, GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND I HAVE EXTENDED THE
WIND ADVISORY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY
THIS COULD ALSO MEAN THAT RAIN MAY NOT MOVE INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO. THE KLAMATH BASIN WILL SEE PASSING LIGHT
SHOWERS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT..A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS TO HIGH END GALE IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY. WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH IF NEXT MODEL RUN
CONTINUES WITH THIS TREND. /FB

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS...
AMOUNTS IN THE COASTAL ZONES, THUS FAR, THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY
BEEN IN THE 0.25" TO 0.75". RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE
MOVING ONSHORE NOW, SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN SOME TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE COAST, BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH
AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS, WITH MOST
OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED FROM NOW THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. WE
EXPECT 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES ACROSS DOUGLAS COUNTY, 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO 1.5" ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY. ON THE
LOW END, IN THE EAST SIDE VALLEYS, WE EXPECT 0.10" TO 0.50", LOWEST
FAR EASTERN AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MOST OF
THE RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, AND MOST OF THE RAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL DIP TO SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AND WEAKEN
LATER ON THURSDAY, AND THEN THE FRONT WAVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NOT IN SOUTH FLOW FAVORED
LOCATIONS AS A STRONG LOW FORM BETWEEN 130 WEST AND THE OREGON
COAST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS BEHIND IT
EVEN INTO SUNDAY, SO THE WEEKEND LOOKS GENERALLY WET. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST PARAMETER THAN THE PRESENCE OF IT IN THE
FORECAST, SO IT WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT OF A WEEKEND FOR ALL
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY MAY WANE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS.

NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH
MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF
THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN QUESTION, BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY
THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. ALSO, THE OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA
SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME
DOWN SOME, INTO THE 5000 TO 7000FT RANGE. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PUSHED ONSHORE ENDING THE WINDS AT KOTH
THIS EVENING...AND THE THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BUT MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VIS WILL PERSIST IN AREAS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE, BUT WILL DIMINISH SHARPLY BEHIND IT. LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE IS ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST INLAND DUE STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WEST SIDE THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH TO THE
EAST SIDE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CIGS AT THE TAF
SITES...BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR IN HEAVIER RAINFALL.
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE TOTAL WEST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT THEN
ALL AREAS THURSDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 545 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED AND COME DOWN AT BUOY 15 OFF CAPE BLANCO
THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ABOUT 3-6 HOURS AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE TO MOVE THROUGH. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING FOR PZZ370. GALES AND WARNING LEVEL SEAS WILL END SHARPLY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS BY
LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO WESTERLY
SWELL. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W
SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE
GUSTS SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350.

$$

MAS/FB/BTL







000
FXUS66 KPDT 222259 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
358 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE FLOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. AS SUCH, EXPECT GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIP AREAWIDE
DURING THE TONIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE LOCALLY BREEZY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS, THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, THE WALLOWA VALLEY AND THE
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF BREEZY WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ON THURSDAY,
EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND
OVER THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY INDICATED OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO WARRANT INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER. THE SHOWERS
WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHWARD DIGGING OF THE OFFSHORE UPPER
TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED DIGGING BY THE TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN
AN EXPECTED SLOW DOWN OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM. AT
THIS TIME STILL EXPECT THIS NEXT SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT WITH A SLOWER TIMING. THUS WILL SHOW THE WARM
FRONTAL PRECIP MAINLY AFFECTING OUR OREGON ZONES FRIDAY AND OUR
WASHINGTON ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5000
FEET THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. 90

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY
DRY...EXCEPT ALONG THE CASCADES. HOWEVER...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED OF 15 TO 25 MPH. THEN AS THE UPPER TROF AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WINDS WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY AND SURGES OF MOISTURE WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE 4500 IN
WASHINGTON AND ABOVE 5000 IN OREGON SO IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT
IS POSSIBLE THIS TROUGH MAY CONTAIN SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM ANA AS IT GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE
WESTERLY FLOW AND MERGES WITH A MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS DO NOT AGREE WELL ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS CONFIDENCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
WHEN AND WHERE. COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES WILL LOWER TO NEAR MVFR
IN RAIN TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND GUSTY AT TIMES. WINDS WILL LESSEN SOME
BETWEEN 03Z AND 18Z...THEN BECOME 15 TO 25 MPH AND SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20Z.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  68  47  61 /  80  50  20  30
ALW  54  68  50  62 /  80  60  20  30
PSC  54  70  47  64 /  80  30  10  10
YKM  46  63  41  59 /  90  20  20  20
HRI  51  70  46  63 /  70  30  20  20
ELN  46  63  39  60 / 100  20  20  10
RDM  47  63  39  58 /  90  40  30  70
LGD  54  62  47  58 /  70  70  40  50
GCD  47  63  43  58 /  70  60  40  60
DLS  51  65  45  60 / 100  40  20  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82







000
FXUS66 KPDT 222259 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
358 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE FLOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. AS SUCH, EXPECT GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIP AREAWIDE
DURING THE TONIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE LOCALLY BREEZY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS, THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, THE WALLOWA VALLEY AND THE
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF BREEZY WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ON THURSDAY,
EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND
OVER THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY INDICATED OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO WARRANT INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER. THE SHOWERS
WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHWARD DIGGING OF THE OFFSHORE UPPER
TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED DIGGING BY THE TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN
AN EXPECTED SLOW DOWN OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM. AT
THIS TIME STILL EXPECT THIS NEXT SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT WITH A SLOWER TIMING. THUS WILL SHOW THE WARM
FRONTAL PRECIP MAINLY AFFECTING OUR OREGON ZONES FRIDAY AND OUR
WASHINGTON ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5000
FEET THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. 90

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY
DRY...EXCEPT ALONG THE CASCADES. HOWEVER...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED OF 15 TO 25 MPH. THEN AS THE UPPER TROF AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WINDS WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY AND SURGES OF MOISTURE WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE 4500 IN
WASHINGTON AND ABOVE 5000 IN OREGON SO IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT
IS POSSIBLE THIS TROUGH MAY CONTAIN SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM ANA AS IT GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE
WESTERLY FLOW AND MERGES WITH A MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS DO NOT AGREE WELL ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS CONFIDENCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
WHEN AND WHERE. COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES WILL LOWER TO NEAR MVFR
IN RAIN TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND GUSTY AT TIMES. WINDS WILL LESSEN SOME
BETWEEN 03Z AND 18Z...THEN BECOME 15 TO 25 MPH AND SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20Z.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  68  47  61 /  80  50  20  30
ALW  54  68  50  62 /  80  60  20  30
PSC  54  70  47  64 /  80  30  10  10
YKM  46  63  41  59 /  90  20  20  20
HRI  51  70  46  63 /  70  30  20  20
ELN  46  63  39  60 / 100  20  20  10
RDM  47  63  39  58 /  90  40  30  70
LGD  54  62  47  58 /  70  70  40  50
GCD  47  63  43  58 /  70  60  40  60
DLS  51  65  45  60 / 100  40  20  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82







000
FXUS66 KPQR 222225 CCB
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
307 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BRINGING HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...MOVING
INTO THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PLENTY OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE NORTH COAST. ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN AND WIND TO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOOK AT THE
LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. AMSU SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE SHOWING AROUND 1.25 INCHES FEEDING INTO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RAIN BAND HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY...AS A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LED TO
A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF WHICH EFFECTIVELY STALLED THE FRONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE NEAR
43N 130W AT CURRENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION TOTALS SO FAR
ARE IN THE S WA AND N OR COAST RANGE AND THE S WA CASCADES...WHERE
GENERALLY 1.5 TO 3 INCHES HAVE FALLEN SO FAR. THE FOCUS OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL OR COAST
RANGE AND N WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS DO NOT INDICATE ANY RIVER
FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE COASTAL
RIVERS DRAINING THE COAST RANGE ARE SHOWING SHARP RISES THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN STREET FLOODING
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL
INTO THIS EVENING. THERE ARE ALSO PLENTY OF LEAVES AROUND...SO
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS COULD BE A CONCERN. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO QUIET
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE STEADIER RAIN MOVES INTO
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES. HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU. A BROAD CLOSED LOW
OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL SPIN A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
TOWARD THE PAC NW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO
ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAY EVEN BRING A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS
TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS BUILD UPSTREAM OF RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES. WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...MODEL
AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION IS BEING MODELED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION BEHIND THE WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. CONFIDENCE IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE THAT THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
RAPIDLY OFFSHORE LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...THEN PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
THE WA COAST LATE SAT. IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE OREGON
COAST...LIKE THE GFS 12Z IS INDICATING...THERE COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD IN THE EXACT TIMING AND TRAJECTORY OF THE
LOW...WHICH WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON HOW THIS SYSTEM
IMPACTS OUR FCST AREA.AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER WET
AND WINDY PERIOD IS LIKELY SAT...BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS DWINDLING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES
WITH THE SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN LESS
AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW WITH THIS
STORM...BUT ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY
ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH TJ.
&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR...MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE
LOWER CEILINGS. AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE
SHOWERY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW
SUIT. ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD TEMPORARILY
REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS INTO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY MORNING
INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND
TOWARDS A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
CONDITIONS LIKELY TURN VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AND BASED ON WEATHER STATIONS AT NEWPORT AND
FLORENCE...IT APPEARS TO BE EXITING THE WATERS. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS...BUT THE GALE WARNING FOR THE INNER CENTRAL OREGON WATERS
APPEARS ABOUT OVER DESPITE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTING OTHERWISE.
WILL LET EVENING SHIFT TAKE IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS BEFORE CANCELING
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS.

FURTHER NORTH...A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH OR WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN WATERS. IT HAS DEEPENED MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED AND JUST STARTED PRODUCING LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
OF 35 KT AT BUOY 29. IF WINDS HAVE NOT PEAKED ALREADY AT BUOY
29...SUSPECT THEY WILL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE SPREADING
INTO THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS AROUND THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER. AS A RESULT...A GALE WARNING FOR WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT WAS
ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW.

FOR THURSDAY...SEAS WILL IN GENERAL BE ON THE DECREASE.
HOWEVER...ONE MODEL SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. THIS COULD RESULT IN
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS THURSDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO TODAYS WINDS...THIS MAY SLOW
THE DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW 10 FT.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THIS WEEKENDS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY AGREE A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AROUND 985MB...WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INSIDE 130
W AND MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE NORTH
OREGON COAST. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF LOW END
STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT. SEAS WILL LIKELY RISE SHARPLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND APPROACH 20 FT LATE SATURDAY.

AFTER A BREAK IN THE WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE WEST COAST NEXT TUESDAY. GALE FORCE TO LOW END STORM FORCE
WINDS CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE. PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM PDT
     THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 222210 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
307 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BRINGING HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...MOVING
INTO THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PLENTY OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE NORTH COAST. ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN AND WIND TO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOOK AT THE
LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. AMSU SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE SHOWING AROUND 1.25 INCHES FEEDING INTO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RAIN BAND HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY...AS A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LED TO
A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF WHICH EFFECTIVELY STALLED THE FRONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE NEAR
43N 130W AT CURRENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION TOTALS SO FAR
ARE IN THE S WA AND N OR COAST RANGE AND THE S WA CASCADES...WHERE
GENERALLY 1.5 TO 3 INCHES HAVE FALLEN SO FAR. THE FOCUS OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL OR COAST
RANGE AND N WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS DO NOT INDICATE ANY RIVER
FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE COASTAL
RIVERS DRAINING THE COAST RANGE ARE SHOWING SHARP RISES THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN STREET FLOODING
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL
INTO THIS EVENING. THERE ARE ALSO PLENTY OF LEAVES AROUND...SO
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS COULD BE A CONCERN. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO QUIET
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE STEADIER RAIN MOVES INTO
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES. HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU. A BROAD CLOSED LOW
OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL SPIN A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
TOWARD THE PAC NW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO
ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAY EVEN BRING A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS
TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS BUILD UPSTREAM OF RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES. WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...MODEL
AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION IS BEING MODELED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION BEHIND THE WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. CONFIDENCE IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE THAT THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
RAPIDLY OFFSHORE LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...THEN PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
THE WA COAST LATE SAT. IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE OREGON
COAST...LIKE THE GFS 12Z IS INDICATING...THERE COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD IN THE EXACT TIMING AND TRAJECTORY OF THE
LOW...WHICH WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON HOW THIS SYSTEM
IMPACTS OUR FCST AREA.AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER WET
AND WINDY PERIOD IS LIKELY SAT...BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS DWINDLING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES
WITH THE SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN LESS
AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW WITH THIS
STORM...BUT ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY
ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH TJ.
&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR...MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE
LOWER CEILINGS. AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE
SHOWERY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW
SUIT. ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
TEMPORARILY REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...STEAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND
TOWARDS A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE CONDITIONS LIKELY TURN VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AND BASED ON WEATHER STATIONS AT NEWPORT AND
FLORENCE...IT APPEARS TO BE EXITING THE WATERS. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS...BUT THE GALE WARNING FOR THE INNER CENTRAL OREGON WATERS
APPEARS ABOUT OVER DESPITE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTING OTHERWISE.
WILL LET EVENING SHIFT TAKE IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS BEFORE CANCELING
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS.

FURTHER NORTH...A LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER OUR
NORTHWESTERN WATERS. IT HAS DEEPENED MORE THAN ANTICIPATED AND
JUST STARTED PRODUCING LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 KT AT
BUOY 29. IF WINDS HAVE NOT PEAKED ALREADY AT BUOY 29...SUSPECT
THEY WILL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS AROUND THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AS A
RESULT...A GALE WARNING FOR WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT WAS ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW.

FOR THURSDAY...SEAS WILL IN GENERAL BE ON THE DECREASE.
HOWEVER...ONE MODEL SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. THIS COULD RESULT IN
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS THURSDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO TODAYS WINDS...THIS MAY SLOW
THE DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW 10 FT.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THIS WEEKENDS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY AGREE A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AROUND 985MB...WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INSIDE 130
W AND MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE NORTH
OREGON COAST. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF LOW END
STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT. SEAS WILL LIKELY RISE SHARPLY AND
APPROACH 20 FT LATE SATURDAY.

AFTER A BREAK IN THE WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE WEST COAST NEXT TUESDAY. GALE FORCE TO LOW END STORM FORCE
WINDS CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE. PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM PDT
     THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KMFR 222209
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
309 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE ARE GETTING A LOT OF
DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE ROGUE VALLEY AND THIS HAS KEPT RAIN OUR OF
THE AREA. A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND
THIS COULD DELAY THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT FURTHER. AS A RESULT, GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND I HAVE EXTENDED THE
WIND ADVISORY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY
THIS COULD ALSO MEAN THAT RAIN MAY NOT MOVE INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO. THE KLAMATH BASIN WILL SEE PASSING LIGHT
SHOWERS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT..A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS TO HIGH END GALE IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY. WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH IF NEXT MODEL RUN
CONTINUES WITH THIS TREND. /FB

&&

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS...
AMOUNTS IN THE COASTAL ZONES, THUS FAR, THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY
BEEN IN THE 0.25" TO 0.75". RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE
MOVING ONSHORE NOW, SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN SOME TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE COAST, BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH
AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS, WITH MOST
OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED FROM NOW THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. WE
EXPECT 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES ACROSS DOUGLAS COUNTY, 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO 1.5" ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY. ON THE
LOW END, IN THE EAST SIDE VALLEYS, WE EXPECT 0.10" TO 0.50", LOWEST
FAR EASTERN AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MOST OF
THE RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, AND MOST OF THE RAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL DIP TO SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AND WEAKEN
LATER ON THURSDAY, AND THEN THE FRONT WAVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NOT IN SOUTH FLOW FAVORED
LOCATIONS AS A STRONG LOW FORM BETWEEN 130 WEST AND THE OREGON
COAST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS BEHIND IT
EVEN INTO SUNDAY, SO THE WEEKEND LOOKS GENERALLY WET. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST PARAMETER THAN THE PRESENCE OF IT IN THE
FORECAST, SO IT WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT OF A WEEKEND FOR ALL
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY MAY WANE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS.

NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH
MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF
THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN QUESTION, BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY
THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. ALSO, THE OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA
SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME
DOWN SOME, INTO THE 5000 TO 7000FT RANGE. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARD THE COAST TODAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS AND THOSE
THAT CHANNEL WINDS FROM THAT DIRECTION. LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE THIS WIND WILL REMAIN A FEW
THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE RESULTING IN A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, TO INCLUDE AT KOTH, WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND OF A SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT DIRECTION THAN
ALOFT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH THE SURFACE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
TODAY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE. RAIN
WILL BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING, WITH IFR EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE THIS EVENING
AND FOR A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST RANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INLAND, VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY EAST OF
INTERSTATE FIVE. MVFR CIGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1130 AM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY, PRODUCING GALES AND VERY
STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING, SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
AND STEEP AS MODERATE SWELL CONTINUES. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS
ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS
AND CHOPPY, STEEP SEAS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM, SO THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SUSPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE GALES,
BUT OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND HEIGHT OF THE SEAS WILL BE
LESS THAN TODAY`S EVENT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BTL/BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BTL







000
FXUS66 KPQR 222207
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
307 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BRINGING HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...MOVING
INTO THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PLENTY OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE NORTH COAST. ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN AND WIND TO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOOK AT THE
LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. AMSU SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE SHOWING AROUND 1.25 INCHES FEEDING INTO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RAIN BAND HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY...AS A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LED TO
A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF WHICH EFFECTIVELY STALLED THE FRONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE NEAR
43N 130W AT CURRENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION TOTALS SO FAR
ARE IN THE S WA AND N OR COAST RANGE AND THE S WA CASCADES...WHERE
GENERALLY 1.5 TO 3 INCHES HAVE FALLEN SO FAR. THE FOCUS OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL OR COAST
RANGE AND N WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS DO NOT INDICATE ANY RIVER
FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE COASTAL
RIVERS DRAINING THE COAST RANGE ARE SHOWING SHARP RISES THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN STREET FLOODING
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL
INTO THIS EVENING. THERE ARE ALSO PLENTY OF LEAVES AROUND...SO
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS COULD BE A CONCERN. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO QUIET
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE STEADIER RAIN MOVES INTO
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES. HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU. A BROAD CLOSED LOW
OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL SPIN A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
TOWARD THE PAC NW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO
ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAY EVEN BRING A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS
TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS BUILD UPSTREAM OF RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES. WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...MODEL
AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION IS BEING MODELED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION BEHIND THE WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. CONFIDENCE IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE THAT THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
RAPIDLY OFFSHORE LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...THEN PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
THE WA COAST LATE SAT. IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE OREGON
COAST...LIKE THE GFS 12Z IS INDICATING...THERE COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD IN THE EXACT TIMING AND TRAJECTORY OF THE
LOW...WHICH WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON HOW THIS SYSTEM
IMPACTS OUR FCST AREA.AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER WET
AND WINDY PERIOD IS LIKELY SAT...BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS DWINDLING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES
WITH THE SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN LESS
AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW WITH THIS
STORM...BUT ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY
ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH TJ.
&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR...MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE
LOWER CEILINGS. AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE
SHOWERY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW
SUIT. ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
TEMPORARILY REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...STEAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND
TOWARDS A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE CONDITIONS LIKELY TURN VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AND BASED ON WEATHER STATIONS AT NEWPORT AND
FLORENCE...IT APPEARS TO BE EXITING THE WATERS. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS...BUT THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS
APPEARS ABOUT OVER DESPITE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTING OTHERWISE.
WILL LET EVENING SHIFT TAKE IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS BEFORE
CANCELING THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS.

FURTHER NORTH...A LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER OUR
NORTHWESTERN WATERS. IT HAS DEEPENED MORE THAN ANTICIPATED AND
JUST STARTED PRODUCING LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 KT AT
BUOY 29. IF WINDS HAVE NOT PEAKED ALREADY AT BUOY 29...SUSPECT
THEY WILL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS AROUND THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AS A
RESULT...A GALE WARNING FOR WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT WAS ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW.

FOR THURSDAY...SEAS WILL IN GENERAL BE ON THE DECREASE.
HOWEVER...ONE MODEL SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. THIS COULD RESULT IN
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS THURSDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO TODAYS WINDS...THIS MAY SLOW
THE DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW 10 FT.

THE BIG STORY WILL THIS WEEKENDS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY AGREE A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 985MB WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INSIDE 130 W
AND POSSIBLY MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
THE NORTH OREGON COAST. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE
FORCE WINDS SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF LOW END STORM
FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT SATURDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WOULD CERTAINLY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 20 FT SEAS.

AFTER A BREAK LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST
NEXT TUESDAY. GALE FORCE TO STORM FORCE WINDS CERTAINLY APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM AS WELL. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE. PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM PDT
     THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPDT 222136
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
236 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE FLOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. AS SUCH, EXPECT GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIP AREAWIDE
DURING THE TONIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE LOCALLY BREEZY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS, THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, THE WALLOWA VALLEY AND THE
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF BREEZY WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ON THURSDAY,
EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND
OVER THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY INDICATED OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO WARRANT INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER. THE SHOWERS
WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHWARD DIGGING OF THE OFFSHORE UPPER
TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED DIGGING BY THE TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN
AN EXPECTED SLOW DOWN OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM. AT
THIS TIME STILL EXPECT THIS NEXT SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT WITH A SLOWER TIMING. THUS WILL SHOW THE WARM
FRONTAL PRECIP MAINLY AFFECTING OUR OREGON ZONES FRIDAY AND OUR
WASHINGTON ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5000
FEET THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. 90

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY
DRY...EXCEPT ALONG THE CASCADES. HOWEVER...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED OF 15 TO 25 MPH. THEN AS THE UPPER TROF AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WINDS WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY AND SURGES OF MOISTURE WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE 4500 IN
WASHINGTON AND ABOVE 5000 IN OREGON SO IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT
IS POSSIBLE THIS TROUGH MAY CONTAIN SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM ANA AS IT GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE
WESTERLY FLOW AND MERGES WITH A MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS DO NOT AGREE WELL ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS CONFIDENCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
WHEN AND WHERE. COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...OVC CIGS WILL BE
LOWERING TO NEAR MVFR AT KRDM...KBDN AND KYKM. REST OF TAF SITES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH -RA OR -SHRA OVERSPREADING AREA AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
OUT OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND GUSTY AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SHIFT
WESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  68  47  61 /  80  50  20  30
ALW  54  68  50  62 /  80  60  20  30
PSC  54  70  47  64 /  80  30  10  10
YKM  46  63  41  59 /  90  20  20  20
HRI  51  70  46  63 /  70  30  20  20
ELN  46  63  39  60 / 100  20  20  10
RDM  47  63  39  58 /  90  40  30  70
LGD  54  62  47  58 /  70  70  40  50
GCD  47  63  43  58 /  70  60  40  60
DLS  51  65  45  60 / 100  40  20  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82








000
FXUS65 KBOI 222050
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A MOIST PACIFIC PLUME TO
OUR WEST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND REACH SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW
IDAHO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN STALL OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH ALONG A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOIST PLUME WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE GREATEST. THE ONLY
AREAS THAT MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP ARE THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. QPF TOTALS /FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY/ WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH /0.10/ TO A QUARTER
/O.25/ OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A QUARTER /0.25 TO HALF
/0.50/ INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 7000 FEET. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT /SOUTH OF A BURNS-BOISE-FAIRFIELD LINE/ ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH...THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW. GOOD MIXING WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES. A HEADLINE MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE WINDS DURING THAT PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BREEZY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
SNOW LEVELS FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DROP FROM OVER 10000 FEET
SATURDAY MORNING TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FORECAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING MONDAY AND A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET IN BEHIND IT. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL
A TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE IN AGAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A
MORE SSWERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD...INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON A DAILY BASIS. THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
EACH PASSING TROUGH...POSSIBLY COMING IN THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE
5000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMYL. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NEAR KBNO KBKE AND KMYL...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR KMYL TO DROP TO MVFR CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST AT 25 TO 35 KTS BUT
WILL INCREASE TO ALMOST 50 KTS AS THURSDAY WEARS ON. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS AT
KBOI.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....EP/AB
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS66 KMFR 221834
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1134 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY LOOK REASONABLE. THE LATEST MODEL RUN SHOWS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS PEAKING TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WE MAY HAVE TO
EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE RAIN
THIS MORNING WILL BE CONFINED TO COOS AND CURRY COUNTIES WITH
LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING RAIN TO THE CASCADES THROUGHOUT TODAY BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGH SNOW LEVEL. DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP
RAIN OUT OF THE ROGUE VALLEY AND WE MAY NOT SEE RAIN HERE IN
MEDFORD UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EVEN THURSDAY MORNING. WESTERN
QUARTER OF SISKIYOU COUNTY COULD SEE RAIN THIS EVENING BUT THE
REST OF THE COUNTY AS WELL AS AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES MAY NOT
SEE RAIN UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARD THE COAST TODAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS AND THOSE
THAT CHANNEL WINDS FROM THAT DIRECTION. LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE THIS WIND WILL REMAIN A FEW
THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE RESULTING IN A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, TO INCLUDE AT KOTH, WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND OF A SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT DIRECTION THAN
ALOFT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH THE SURFACE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
TODAY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE. RAIN
WILL BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING, WITH IFR EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE THIS EVENING
AND FOR A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST RANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INLAND, VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY EAST OF
INTERSTATE FIVE. MVFR CIGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1130 AM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY, PRODUCING GALES AND VERY
STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING, SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
AND STEEP AS MODERATE SWELL CONTINUES. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS
ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS
AND CHOPPY, STEEP SEAS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM, SO THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SUSPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE GALES,
BUT OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND HEIGHT OF THE SEAS WILL BE
LESS THAN TODAY`S EVENT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BTL/BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...22/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

CURRENTLY THERE IS LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA FROM THE
CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. AMOUNTS IN THE PAST SIX HOURS
HAVE BEEN 0.10 INCHES OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR THE BALD MOUNTAIN RAWS
WITH 0.12 INCHES. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 35 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND CAPE BLANCO REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 51 MPH. INLAND...THE
HIGHEST GUST IS 48 MPH AT SQUAW PEAK...WHICH IS BY FAR THE
WINDIEST INLAND LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

THE PROGRESSIVE WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE MEDFORD CWA WITH
MULTIPLE FRONTS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST...
BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING
FROM THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT.
THEREFORE...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE BUT IT WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO PROGRESS. IT WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INLAND
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO AS THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE AROUND 3
TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS WEST
OF THE CASCADES WILL BE AROUND 0.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE UMPQUA VALLEY. EAST OF THE
CASCADES...AMOUNTS WILL BE 0.10 TO 0.75 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER MODOC
AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL BUT
THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE AND IN THE SHASTA VALLEYS. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AT
THAT TIME.

THE MODELS LAST NIGHT PUT THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ONSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE MORE RECENT RUNS KEEP IT OFFSHORE UNTIL SATURDAY WITH A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP. THIS WILL DELAY THE NEXT COLD FRONT
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH LOTS OF SHOWERS.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...SATURDAY,
OCTOBER 25TH THROUGH TUESDAY, OCTOBER 29TH. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG
WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

MORE SPECIFICALLY, AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW STORM TRACK WILL PERSIST
OVER THE THE FORECAST ARE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 990 MILLIBARS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INSIDE OF 130
WEST LONGITUDE AND THEN WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA IN WESTERN WASHINGTON OR VANCOUVER ISLAND, BRITISH
COLUMBIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.25 INCHES AS THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES AT OUR COASTLINE. WITH THE LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA, THE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MEANS THAT COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA STAND TO SEE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE COLD
FRONT FROM IT WILL REMAIN INTACT INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADES.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILD REPRIEVE IN THE WET WEATHER AS
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN
DEPARTS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CONTAIN THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ANA, WHICH RECENTLY AFFECTED HAWAII, IS DUE IN WITH MORE
WIND AND RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
  PZZ356.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
  TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
  PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
- GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM
  PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/BTL










000
FXUS66 KPDT 221724 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1025 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL KEEP BANDS OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE CASCADES AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON AS THESE AREAS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE
MAIN MOISTURE PLUME. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS, IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, AND ALONG THE
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WORK
IT`S WAY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THUS EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE
SOME PRECIP TONIGHT. UPDATES THIS MORNING INVOLVED ADJUSTING PRECIP
CHANCES AND SOME WINDS FOR TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXCEPT FOR THE CASCADES...A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SURGES OF MOISTURE WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE CASCADES AND BLUE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVEL ABOVE 4500
IN WASHINGTON AND ABOVE 5000 IN OREGON SO IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROF TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE
THIS TROF MAY CONTAIN SOME LEFT OVER MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM
PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM ANA AS IT GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...OVC CIGS WILL BE LOWERING TO NEAR MVFR AT
KRDM...KBDN AND KYKM. REST OF TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH -RA
OR -SHRA OVERSPREADING AREA AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND
GUSTY AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67  50  67  48 /  20  80  50  20
ALW  67  52  67  51 /  30  80  50  20
PSC  65  53  69  49 /  50  80  30  20
YKM  60  45  63  41 /  60 100  20  20
HRI  66  49  68  46 /  30  80  30  20
ELN  59  46  63  41 /  70 100  30  20
RDM  65  46  63  43 /  30  90  40  30
LGD  61  52  62  46 /  10  70  50  40
GCD  63  47  61  45 /  20  70  50  40
DLS  60  50  64  47 /  70 100  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/79/82







000
FXUS66 KPDT 221724 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1025 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL KEEP BANDS OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE CASCADES AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON AS THESE AREAS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE
MAIN MOISTURE PLUME. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS, IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, AND ALONG THE
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WORK
IT`S WAY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THUS EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE
SOME PRECIP TONIGHT. UPDATES THIS MORNING INVOLVED ADJUSTING PRECIP
CHANCES AND SOME WINDS FOR TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXCEPT FOR THE CASCADES...A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SURGES OF MOISTURE WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE CASCADES AND BLUE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVEL ABOVE 4500
IN WASHINGTON AND ABOVE 5000 IN OREGON SO IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROF TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE
THIS TROF MAY CONTAIN SOME LEFT OVER MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM
PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM ANA AS IT GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...OVC CIGS WILL BE LOWERING TO NEAR MVFR AT
KRDM...KBDN AND KYKM. REST OF TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH -RA
OR -SHRA OVERSPREADING AREA AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND
GUSTY AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67  50  67  48 /  20  80  50  20
ALW  67  52  67  51 /  30  80  50  20
PSC  65  53  69  49 /  50  80  30  20
YKM  60  45  63  41 /  60 100  20  20
HRI  66  49  68  46 /  30  80  30  20
ELN  59  46  63  41 /  70 100  30  20
RDM  65  46  63  43 /  30  90  40  30
LGD  61  52  62  46 /  10  70  50  40
GCD  63  47  61  45 /  20  70  50  40
DLS  60  50  64  47 /  70 100  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/79/82







000
FXUS66 KPQR 221638
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
940 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
ACCESS TO A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE WHICH STRETCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC...MEANING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGH MORNING...AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WET AND
POTENTIALLY WINDY SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LASHED
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG AND MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING ONSHORE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SO FAR HAS FALLEN
OVER THE S WASHINGTON AND N OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE...WHERE
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED. FAST RESPONDING STREAMS IN THIS AREA SUCH AS THE GRAYS
RIVER AND THE NASELLE RIVER AS SHOWING SHARP RISES OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. WE WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THE
LATEST FORECAST FOR THE THE GRAYS HAS THE RIVER STAGE REACHING JUST
SHORT OF FLOOD STAGE. AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
FOCUSED OVER THE CASCADES...WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND OREGON COAST
RANGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE
ENTIRE EVENT AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-2 INCHES IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-5 INCHES FOR
MOST OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION TO WATCHING OUR FAST
RESPONDING RIVERS AND STREAMS DRAINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING OVER
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THIS THREAT COULD BE EXACERBATED BY FALLEN
LEAVES CLOGGING STORM DRAINS.

THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN GUSTY...BUT HAVE
FALLEN SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS FOR THE MOST PART. MOST BEACH AND
HEADLAND LOCATIONS HAVE TOPPED OUT AROUND 45-55 MPH...WITH A FEW
SPOTS GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE NORTH OREGON
COAST. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE. DECIDED TO ALLOW THE HIGH WIND WARNING
TO EXPIRE FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST AS OF 9 AM. THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP MODELS INDICATE THAT A WAVE MOVING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RE-ENERGIZE THE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THE HIGH WIND WARNING
CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT NOON MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. WILL
MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PYLE

.REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION REMAINS UNCHANGED...
THURSDAY THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. RAINFALL THURSDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A COUPLE SUNBREAKS BETWEEN
SHOWERS...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

THERE IS ANOTHER STRONG AND WET STORM EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ALONG
THE COAST AND IMPACT NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS...THIS SYSTEM IS
LOOKING QUITE WET AGAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL PROBABLY BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST AND A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF
TRACKS SUGGEST POSSIBLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND AS WELL. AUTUMN
IS KICKING INTO FULL GEAR WITH A BANG.WEAGLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE REGION IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH EVERY OTHER. WHILE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BRINGING A
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR MORE RAINFALL.
WHILE SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
EVOLVE AND TRACK...AND JUST HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE...IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WET WEATHER AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY AT KAST.
CONDITIONS MAY HOLD IN IFR A BIT LONGER AT KONP. FURTHER
INLAND...WEAKENING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
STEADY RAIN MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...AND
SCATTERED BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW ALL INTERIOR TAF SITES TO GENERALLY
RETURN TO VFR OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LASTING THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING STEADY RAIN
TODAY. HOWEVER...BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS WEAKEN
TOWARDS 00Z TO 06Z THURSDAY...MVFR TO EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INCREASING
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE WATERS...STRETCHING
FROM BUOY 50 NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WINDS ARE GENERALLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY
DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG THE FRONT...AND MAY PUSH THE
FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AND TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN IT THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE GALE WARNING GOING FOR THE CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS AND WILL DECIDE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WHETHER OR
NOT TO EXTEND IT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE MODELS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY WAY OVERDONE ON THEIR WIND SPEEDS...MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO TRUST THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THE WIND FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN IF THE GALE WARNING IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
OR IF IT IS EXTENDED.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE
17 TO 19 FT RANGE. GIVEN WINDS HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
THE WATERS...SEAS SHOULD RESPOND FAIRLY QUICK IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND DROP INTO THE 14 TO 16 FT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY HOLD STEADY FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS
MATERIALIZE...BUT OTHERWISE THEY SHOULD CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND
INTO THE 11 TO 13 FT RANGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 FT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT
IN A DEEPENING 985MB-ISH LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD INSIDE 130
W. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 50 KT OR
GREATER SATURDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 FT OR MORE SEAS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION...ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS MAY IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM PDT
     THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM
     PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 221638
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
940 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
ACCESS TO A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE WHICH STRETCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC...MEANING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGH MORNING...AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WET AND
POTENTIALLY WINDY SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LASHED
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG AND MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING ONSHORE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SO FAR HAS FALLEN
OVER THE S WASHINGTON AND N OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE...WHERE
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED. FAST RESPONDING STREAMS IN THIS AREA SUCH AS THE GRAYS
RIVER AND THE NASELLE RIVER AS SHOWING SHARP RISES OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. WE WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THE
LATEST FORECAST FOR THE THE GRAYS HAS THE RIVER STAGE REACHING JUST
SHORT OF FLOOD STAGE. AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
FOCUSED OVER THE CASCADES...WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND OREGON COAST
RANGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE
ENTIRE EVENT AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-2 INCHES IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-5 INCHES FOR
MOST OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION TO WATCHING OUR FAST
RESPONDING RIVERS AND STREAMS DRAINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING OVER
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THIS THREAT COULD BE EXACERBATED BY FALLEN
LEAVES CLOGGING STORM DRAINS.

THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN GUSTY...BUT HAVE
FALLEN SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS FOR THE MOST PART. MOST BEACH AND
HEADLAND LOCATIONS HAVE TOPPED OUT AROUND 45-55 MPH...WITH A FEW
SPOTS GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE NORTH OREGON
COAST. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE. DECIDED TO ALLOW THE HIGH WIND WARNING
TO EXPIRE FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST AS OF 9 AM. THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP MODELS INDICATE THAT A WAVE MOVING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RE-ENERGIZE THE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THE HIGH WIND WARNING
CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT NOON MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. WILL
MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PYLE

.REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION REMAINS UNCHANGED...
THURSDAY THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. RAINFALL THURSDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A COUPLE SUNBREAKS BETWEEN
SHOWERS...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

THERE IS ANOTHER STRONG AND WET STORM EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ALONG
THE COAST AND IMPACT NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS...THIS SYSTEM IS
LOOKING QUITE WET AGAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL PROBABLY BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST AND A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF
TRACKS SUGGEST POSSIBLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND AS WELL. AUTUMN
IS KICKING INTO FULL GEAR WITH A BANG.WEAGLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE REGION IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH EVERY OTHER. WHILE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BRINGING A
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR MORE RAINFALL.
WHILE SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
EVOLVE AND TRACK...AND JUST HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE...IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WET WEATHER AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY AT KAST.
CONDITIONS MAY HOLD IN IFR A BIT LONGER AT KONP. FURTHER
INLAND...WEAKENING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
STEADY RAIN MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...AND
SCATTERED BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW ALL INTERIOR TAF SITES TO GENERALLY
RETURN TO VFR OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LASTING THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING STEADY RAIN
TODAY. HOWEVER...BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS WEAKEN
TOWARDS 00Z TO 06Z THURSDAY...MVFR TO EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INCREASING
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE WATERS...STRETCHING
FROM BUOY 50 NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WINDS ARE GENERALLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY
DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG THE FRONT...AND MAY PUSH THE
FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AND TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN IT THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE GALE WARNING GOING FOR THE CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS AND WILL DECIDE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WHETHER OR
NOT TO EXTEND IT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE MODELS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY WAY OVERDONE ON THEIR WIND SPEEDS...MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO TRUST THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THE WIND FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN IF THE GALE WARNING IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
OR IF IT IS EXTENDED.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE
17 TO 19 FT RANGE. GIVEN WINDS HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
THE WATERS...SEAS SHOULD RESPOND FAIRLY QUICK IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND DROP INTO THE 14 TO 16 FT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY HOLD STEADY FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS
MATERIALIZE...BUT OTHERWISE THEY SHOULD CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND
INTO THE 11 TO 13 FT RANGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 FT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT
IN A DEEPENING 985MB-ISH LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD INSIDE 130
W. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 50 KT OR
GREATER SATURDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 FT OR MORE SEAS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION...ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS MAY IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM PDT
     THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM
     PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KMFR 221613
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
913 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY LOOK REASONABLE. THE LATEST MODEL RUN SHOWS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS PEAKING TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WE MAY HAVE TO
EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE RAIN
THIS MORNING WILL BE CONFINED TO COOS AND CURRY COUNTIES WITH
LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING RAIN TO THE CASCADES THROUGHOUT TODAY BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGH SNOW LEVEL. DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP
RAIN OUT OF THE ROGUE VALLEY AND WE MAY NOT SEE RAIN HERE IN
MEDFORD UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EVEN THURSDAY MORNING. WESTERN
QUARTER OF SISKIYOU COUNTY COULD SEE RAIN THIS EVENING BUT THE
REST OF THE COUNTY AS WELL AS AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES MAY NOT
SEE RAIN UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/12Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS MORNING
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KOTH, WHERE THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAK DURING THE MORNING THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z, BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL REACH THE SURFACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. MEANWHILE, EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THIS MORNING, BECOMING MODERATE
TO HEAVY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SIGNIFICANT
TERRAIN OBSCURATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES.

INLAND, VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY, THOUGH MVFR CIGS AND
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CASCADES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEADIER
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KRBG AND AROUND
EARLY EVENING AT KMFR. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY WEDNESDAY. EAST OF THE CASCADES, GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH RAIN BEGINNING IN THE EVENING. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 AM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS
WILL PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY, PRODUCING GALES AND VERY
STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING, SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
AND STEEP AS MODERATE SWELL CONTINUES. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS
THROUGH THURSDAY, ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
WINDS AND CHOPPY STEEP SEAS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM, SO THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SUSPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE GALES,
BUT OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND HEIGHT OF THE SEAS WILL BE
LESS THAN TODAY`S EVENT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...22/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

CURRENTLY THERE IS LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA FROM THE
CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. AMOUNTS IN THE PAST SIX HOURS
HAVE BEEN 0.10 INCHES OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR THE BALD MOUNTAIN RAWS
WITH 0.12 INCHES. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 35 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND CAPE BLANCO REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 51 MPH. INLAND...THE
HIGHEST GUST IS 48 MPH AT SQUAW PEAK...WHICH IS BY FAR THE
WINDIEST INLAND LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

THE PROGRESSIVE WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE MEDFORD CWA WITH
MULTIPLE FRONTS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST...
BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING
FROM THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT.
THEREFORE...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE BUT IT WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO PROGRESS. IT WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INLAND
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO AS THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE AROUND 3
TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS WEST
OF THE CASCADES WILL BE AROUND 0.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE UMPQUA VALLEY. EAST OF THE
CASCADES...AMOUNTS WILL BE 0.10 TO 0.75 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER MODOC
AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL BUT
THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE AND IN THE SHASTA VALLEYS. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AT
THAT TIME.

THE MODELS LAST NIGHT PUT THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ONSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE MORE RECENT RUNS KEEP IT OFFSHORE UNTIL SATURDAY WITH A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP. THIS WILL DELAY THE NEXT COLD FRONT
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH LOTS OF SHOWERS.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...SATURDAY,
OCTOBER 25TH THROUGH TUESDAY, OCTOBER 29TH. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG
WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

MORE SPECIFICALLY, AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW STORM TRACK WILL PERSIST
OVER THE THE FORECAST ARE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 990 MILLIBARS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INSIDE OF 130
WEST LONGITUDE AND THEN WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA IN WESTERN WASHINGTON OR VANCOUVER ISLAND, BRITISH
COLUMBIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.25 INCHES AS THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES AT OUR COASTLINE. WITH THE LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA, THE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MEANS THAT COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA STAND TO SEE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE COLD
FRONT FROM IT WILL REMAIN INTACT INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADES.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILD REPRIEVE IN THE WET WEATHER AS
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN
DEPARTS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CONTAIN THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ANA, WHICH RECENTLY AFFECTED HAWAII, IS DUE IN WITH MORE
WIND AND RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BTL

AVIATION...22/06Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
TOWARDS THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KOTH WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
COMPARATIVELY WEAK DURING THE MORNING. THE LLWS RISK EXTENDS
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TODAY. THEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT
THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. MEANWHILE, CIGS ALONG THE COAST
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR THIS MORNING
WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COAST RANGES. RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES BY
SUNRISE...RAIN WILL INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
INLAND, VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY,
THOUGH CIGS WILL LOWER ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND ISOLATED MVFR CIGS IN THE UMPQUA
VALLEY. STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN AFTERNOON AT KRBG
AND AROUND EARLY EVENING AT KMFR. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY WEDNESDAY. ALSO EXPECT SOME BREEZY
AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES. -SPILDE/CC

MARINE...UPDATED 1045 PM PDT TUE 21 OCT 2014...A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER BELOW GALES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INLAND. HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING
WIND WAVES TODAY AND THIS EVENING RESULTING IN CHAOTIC AND
DANGEROUS SEAS. SEA CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE A LITTLE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE AND WIND WAVES LOWER. SEAS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY WESTERLY SWELL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT WE`LL SEE YET ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG
WINDS AND VERY HAZARDOUS SEAS. -SPILDE/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM
     PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BPN







000
FXUS65 KBOI 221558
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
958 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...MORNING FOG /WHICH IS LOCALLY DENSE/ IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS /INCLUDING MCCALL/ WILL BURN OFF BY NOON. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A MOIST PACIFIC PLUME AND
ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION WHICH RESIDE JUST TO OUR WEST. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG EXPECTED TO LIFT BEFORE NOON AT KMYL...OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN IMPACTING KBNO AND KBKE THURSDAY MORNING. VCSH AND LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TWO SITES BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 22/18Z. SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL ON
TRACK TO BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS ALOFT REMAINING SW AT
20 TO 30 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...INTERMOUNTAIN FOG AND
STRATUS WILL LIFT LATE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE TODAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN POPS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SE OF BOISE THROUGH MUO/TWF/JER WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN DRY. HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BKE-
MYL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WHEN BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS OREGON BLM LANDS. HAVING PRECIP FURTHER SE SEEMS TO FIT
THE UPSTREAM SATIMG ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC WHICH SHOWED THE
MOISTURE AND JET AXIS HAS SAGGED SOUTH OF 40N AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE POISED TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE LARGE GULF
OF AK LOW FROM THE ALEUTIANS TODAY THROUGH WRN NOAM
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ENERGY DUE INLAND IN THE
EXTENDED.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH WARMING AND CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE
DRY AND WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10-20 DEGREES WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL 5500 FEET MSL ON SUNDAY. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE
TROUGH EXITS. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 221558
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
958 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...MORNING FOG /WHICH IS LOCALLY DENSE/ IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS /INCLUDING MCCALL/ WILL BURN OFF BY NOON. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A MOIST PACIFIC PLUME AND
ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION WHICH RESIDE JUST TO OUR WEST. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG EXPECTED TO LIFT BEFORE NOON AT KMYL...OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN IMPACTING KBNO AND KBKE THURSDAY MORNING. VCSH AND LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TWO SITES BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 22/18Z. SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL ON
TRACK TO BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS ALOFT REMAINING SW AT
20 TO 30 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...INTERMOUNTAIN FOG AND
STRATUS WILL LIFT LATE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE TODAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN POPS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SE OF BOISE THROUGH MUO/TWF/JER WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN DRY. HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BKE-
MYL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WHEN BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS OREGON BLM LANDS. HAVING PRECIP FURTHER SE SEEMS TO FIT
THE UPSTREAM SATIMG ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC WHICH SHOWED THE
MOISTURE AND JET AXIS HAS SAGGED SOUTH OF 40N AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE POISED TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE LARGE GULF
OF AK LOW FROM THE ALEUTIANS TODAY THROUGH WRN NOAM
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ENERGY DUE INLAND IN THE
EXTENDED.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH WARMING AND CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE
DRY AND WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10-20 DEGREES WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL 5500 FEET MSL ON SUNDAY. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE
TROUGH EXITS. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS66 KPDT 221548
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
848 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL KEEP BANDS OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE CASCADES AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON AS THESE AREAS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE
MAIN MOISTURE PLUME. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS, IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, AND ALONG THE
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WORK
IT`S WAY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THUS EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE
SOME PRECIP TONIGHT. UPDATES THIS MORNING INVOLVED ADJUSTING PRECIP
CHANCES AND SOME WINDS FOR TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXCEPT FOR THE CASCADES...A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SURGES OF MOISTURE WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE CASCADES AND BLUE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVEL ABOVE 4500
IN WASHINGTON AND ABOVE 5000 IN OREGON SO IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROF TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE
THIS TROF MAY CONTAIN SOME LEFT OVER MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM
PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM ANA AS IT GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...OVC CIGS WILL BE
LOWERING TO NEAR MVFR AT KRDM AND KBDN BY 00Z.  REST OF TAF SITES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH -RA OR -SHRA OVERSPREADING AREA BETWEEN 15Z
AND 00Z AND CONTINUING INTO 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67  50  67  48 /  20  80  50  20
ALW  67  52  67  51 /  30  80  50  20
PSC  65  53  69  49 /  50  80  30  20
YKM  60  45  63  41 /  60 100  20  20
HRI  66  49  68  46 /  30  80  30  20
ELN  59  46  63  41 /  70 100  30  20
RDM  65  46  63  43 /  30  90  40  30
LGD  61  52  62  46 /  10  70  50  40
GCD  63  47  61  45 /  20  70  50  40
DLS  60  50  64  47 /  70 100  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/79/82








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