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  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPDT 011000
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. A GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WITH TURN MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS DEEPENING THE TROUGH. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A ZONE OF DRIER AREA MOVING INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT THAT THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA
IS DRY. AWAY FROM THE CASCADE CREST SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 MPH. TEMPERATURE WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S. AS THE LOW MOVES ASHORE TONIGHT IN BRITISH COLUMBIA, IT
WILL PUSH A WAVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE ENTIRE CASCADE
CREST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS FAR EAST AS ELLENSBURG, THE
DALLES AND BEND. FURTHER EAST, THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. THE
SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE CASCADES AND IN THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON TO 10
TO 20 MPH IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND TO AROUND 10 MPH SOUTH OF THERE.
WITH THE TROUGH BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOL AND IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. ANOTHER WAVE WILL CROSS THE
CASCADES THURSDAY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS WITH THE REST OF THE AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. PERRY


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY AND TO AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER IN MOVING
THE SYSTEM OUT AND PROVIDES MORE QPF THAN THE GFS OVER THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RUN IS TRENDING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST OF
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY BUT THAT MAY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE STORM EXITS THE
REGION. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. THROUGH SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND IT WILL BE POTENTIALLY QUITE
COLD IN THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS COULD FALL TO FREEZING OR
BELOW. 78


&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS AT
AROUND 20000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WESTERLY AT 7-13 KT
AFTER 18Z EXCEPT 15 TO 22 KT AT KDLS...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AFTER
06Z. 78


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  79  54  71  47 /   0  20  20  10
ALW  80  61  73  51 /   0  20  20  10
PSC  82  59  76  49 /   0  10  10  10
YKM  76  52  69  44 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  81  57  74  49 /   0  10  10  10
ELN  75  51  70  46 /  10  20  20  10
RDM  80  47  68  37 /   0  10  20  10
LGD  83  48  69  41 /   0  10  20  10
GCD  85  48  72  41 /   0  10  20  20
DLS  80  60  74  52 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/78/78



000
FXUS66 KPDT 011000
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. A GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WITH TURN MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS DEEPENING THE TROUGH. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A ZONE OF DRIER AREA MOVING INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT THAT THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA
IS DRY. AWAY FROM THE CASCADE CREST SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 MPH. TEMPERATURE WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S. AS THE LOW MOVES ASHORE TONIGHT IN BRITISH COLUMBIA, IT
WILL PUSH A WAVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE ENTIRE CASCADE
CREST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS FAR EAST AS ELLENSBURG, THE
DALLES AND BEND. FURTHER EAST, THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. THE
SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE CASCADES AND IN THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON TO 10
TO 20 MPH IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND TO AROUND 10 MPH SOUTH OF THERE.
WITH THE TROUGH BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOL AND IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. ANOTHER WAVE WILL CROSS THE
CASCADES THURSDAY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS WITH THE REST OF THE AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. PERRY


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY AND TO AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER IN MOVING
THE SYSTEM OUT AND PROVIDES MORE QPF THAN THE GFS OVER THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RUN IS TRENDING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST OF
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY BUT THAT MAY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE STORM EXITS THE
REGION. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. THROUGH SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND IT WILL BE POTENTIALLY QUITE
COLD IN THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS COULD FALL TO FREEZING OR
BELOW. 78


&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS AT
AROUND 20000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WESTERLY AT 7-13 KT
AFTER 18Z EXCEPT 15 TO 22 KT AT KDLS...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AFTER
06Z. 78


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  79  54  71  47 /   0  20  20  10
ALW  80  61  73  51 /   0  20  20  10
PSC  82  59  76  49 /   0  10  10  10
YKM  76  52  69  44 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  81  57  74  49 /   0  10  10  10
ELN  75  51  70  46 /  10  20  20  10
RDM  80  47  68  37 /   0  10  20  10
LGD  83  48  69  41 /   0  10  20  10
GCD  85  48  72  41 /   0  10  20  20
DLS  80  60  74  52 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/78/78



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 010944
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
243 AM PDT TUE SEP  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT ALONG THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
OREGON TODAY...AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT FOR
A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ASSOCIATED
TRAILING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY EXTEND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON WEDNESDAY FOR MORE SHOWERS...AND LINGER OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY. ENERGY ON THE WEST OR BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SWING
INLAND MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL BE MORE OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND FOR IMPROVING WEATHER...THOUGH ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR SHOW A FRONT ALONG THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT HAVE SHEARED OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHWARD. THE MODELS SHOW IT SLOWLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A JET
STREAK/SHORT WAVE OUT AROUND 45N/135W THAT THE MODELS MOVE THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE FEATURE THAT WILL KEEP THE FRONT SOMEWHAT ACTIVE AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE A LOT WITH THIS
FRONT...PERHAPS A QUARTER INCH ON THE NORTH COAST AND IN THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS...UP TO A TENTH IN THE NORTH VALLEY...AND ONE OR TWO TENTHS
IN THE CASCADES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME DECENT
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OR SO OF THE DAY AS A DECENT
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL...AND MODEL LIFTED INDICES SUPPORT
THIS IDEA.

THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS AND SAGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY
FOR SOME MORE SHOWERS...AND A ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH AS
WELL. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOVERING ON ONE
SIDE OR THE OTHER OF 70 IN THE NORTH...AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER NEAR
EUGENE.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 6000 TO 7000 FEET
AROUND MOUNT HOOD NORTHWARD...THE LOWEST WE HAVE SEEN SINCE SPRING.
TOLLESON

CLIMATE FACTOID...GIVEN THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES OBSERVED SO FAR
TODAY AND NO DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...2015 WILL GO DOWN AS THE WARMEST METEOROLOGICAL
SUMMER...JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST...ON RECORD FOR PORTLAND...SALEM AND
EUGENE. RECORDS GO BACK APPROXIMATELY 120 YEARS FOR EUGENE AND
SALEM...AND 75 YEARS FOR PORTLAND. WILL PUT A GRAPHIC COMPARING THIS
YEAR TO THE PREVIOUS RECORDS ON OUR SOCIAL MEDIA SITES HOPEFULLY
BEFORE 10 PM. LINKS TO OUR SOCIAL MEDIA SITES CAN BE REACHED AT THE
BOTTOM OF THE AFD OR IN THE UPPER RIGHT HAND CORNER OF OUR HOMEPAGE.
/NEUMAN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE COMING
TOGETHER WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE INITIAL MAIN ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AND THEN
SWINGS INLAND MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH. BUT THEN WE WILL BE UNDER A
BROADER PORTION OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND EXPECT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND THAT SHOULD BRING SOME IMPROVING WEATHER TO
THE AREA. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE SOMETIME
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR
AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPEAR TO HAVE KEPT A DECENT TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT SPREAD AND THUS PREVENT LOW STRATUS FROM FORMING AT THE COAST.
STILL LOOKING LIKE POST COLD FRONTAL ONSHORE WIND WILL BRING AN IFR
DECK AROUND 18-23Z TODAY TO KAST AND A COUPLE HOURS LATER TO KONP.
INLAND SITES SHOULD NOT DROP LOWER THAN A HIGH END MVFR AT WORST AND
PROBABLY REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 035.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR ALTHOUGH CIGS CLOUDS LOWER TO 035 AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FIELD 20-23Z. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE RUNNING 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS PER
RAPIDSCAT AND ASCAT WIND PASSES. HAVE ANTICIPATED A BIT OF A COASTAL
JET DEVELOPING THIS MORNING WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS ALONG THE NRN
OREGON AND SRN WA COAST. WINDS AT CLATSOP SPIT SENSOR ARE RUNNING
AROUND 15 KT AND HAVE OVER ACHIEVED MOST MODELS THUS FAR TONIGHT. THE
HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT AND WILL FOLLOW IT`S WINDS AND
MINIMAL COASTAL JET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS COVERING THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS.
EXPECT WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KT.

THOSE WINDS MAY EXACERBATE THE ALREADY SOMEWHAT STEEP SEAS AND BRING
CONDITIONS LONG THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA UP TO 10 FT. WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON IT AS ONLY HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL STAY
IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE WITH PERIODS 11 TO 13 SECONDS THROUGH MID-DAY
TOMORROW.

A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...JUST OFFSHORE OF YAKUTAT IS
GENERATING A NORTHERLY FETCH THAT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF 10 FT
SWELL TO THE OUTER OREGON WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS,
BUT THE SURFACE THERMAL LOW OVER THE NRN CA AND SRN OR COAST WILL BE
WEAKER AND MAY NOT EVEN PUSH VERY FAR OVER OREGON. HAVE KEPT THE
NORTHERLIES FOR NOW. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
     WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM PDT
     THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 010944
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
243 AM PDT TUE SEP  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT ALONG THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
OREGON TODAY...AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT FOR
A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ASSOCIATED
TRAILING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY EXTEND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON WEDNESDAY FOR MORE SHOWERS...AND LINGER OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY. ENERGY ON THE WEST OR BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SWING
INLAND MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL BE MORE OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND FOR IMPROVING WEATHER...THOUGH ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR SHOW A FRONT ALONG THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT HAVE SHEARED OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHWARD. THE MODELS SHOW IT SLOWLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A JET
STREAK/SHORT WAVE OUT AROUND 45N/135W THAT THE MODELS MOVE THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE FEATURE THAT WILL KEEP THE FRONT SOMEWHAT ACTIVE AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE A LOT WITH THIS
FRONT...PERHAPS A QUARTER INCH ON THE NORTH COAST AND IN THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS...UP TO A TENTH IN THE NORTH VALLEY...AND ONE OR TWO TENTHS
IN THE CASCADES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME DECENT
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OR SO OF THE DAY AS A DECENT
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL...AND MODEL LIFTED INDICES SUPPORT
THIS IDEA.

THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS AND SAGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY
FOR SOME MORE SHOWERS...AND A ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH AS
WELL. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOVERING ON ONE
SIDE OR THE OTHER OF 70 IN THE NORTH...AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER NEAR
EUGENE.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 6000 TO 7000 FEET
AROUND MOUNT HOOD NORTHWARD...THE LOWEST WE HAVE SEEN SINCE SPRING.
TOLLESON

CLIMATE FACTOID...GIVEN THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES OBSERVED SO FAR
TODAY AND NO DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...2015 WILL GO DOWN AS THE WARMEST METEOROLOGICAL
SUMMER...JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST...ON RECORD FOR PORTLAND...SALEM AND
EUGENE. RECORDS GO BACK APPROXIMATELY 120 YEARS FOR EUGENE AND
SALEM...AND 75 YEARS FOR PORTLAND. WILL PUT A GRAPHIC COMPARING THIS
YEAR TO THE PREVIOUS RECORDS ON OUR SOCIAL MEDIA SITES HOPEFULLY
BEFORE 10 PM. LINKS TO OUR SOCIAL MEDIA SITES CAN BE REACHED AT THE
BOTTOM OF THE AFD OR IN THE UPPER RIGHT HAND CORNER OF OUR HOMEPAGE.
/NEUMAN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE COMING
TOGETHER WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE INITIAL MAIN ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AND THEN
SWINGS INLAND MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH. BUT THEN WE WILL BE UNDER A
BROADER PORTION OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND EXPECT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND THAT SHOULD BRING SOME IMPROVING WEATHER TO
THE AREA. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE SOMETIME
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR
AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPEAR TO HAVE KEPT A DECENT TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT SPREAD AND THUS PREVENT LOW STRATUS FROM FORMING AT THE COAST.
STILL LOOKING LIKE POST COLD FRONTAL ONSHORE WIND WILL BRING AN IFR
DECK AROUND 18-23Z TODAY TO KAST AND A COUPLE HOURS LATER TO KONP.
INLAND SITES SHOULD NOT DROP LOWER THAN A HIGH END MVFR AT WORST AND
PROBABLY REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 035.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR ALTHOUGH CIGS CLOUDS LOWER TO 035 AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FIELD 20-23Z. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE RUNNING 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS PER
RAPIDSCAT AND ASCAT WIND PASSES. HAVE ANTICIPATED A BIT OF A COASTAL
JET DEVELOPING THIS MORNING WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS ALONG THE NRN
OREGON AND SRN WA COAST. WINDS AT CLATSOP SPIT SENSOR ARE RUNNING
AROUND 15 KT AND HAVE OVER ACHIEVED MOST MODELS THUS FAR TONIGHT. THE
HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT AND WILL FOLLOW IT`S WINDS AND
MINIMAL COASTAL JET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS COVERING THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS.
EXPECT WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KT.

THOSE WINDS MAY EXACERBATE THE ALREADY SOMEWHAT STEEP SEAS AND BRING
CONDITIONS LONG THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA UP TO 10 FT. WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON IT AS ONLY HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL STAY
IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE WITH PERIODS 11 TO 13 SECONDS THROUGH MID-DAY
TOMORROW.

A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...JUST OFFSHORE OF YAKUTAT IS
GENERATING A NORTHERLY FETCH THAT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF 10 FT
SWELL TO THE OUTER OREGON WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS,
BUT THE SURFACE THERMAL LOW OVER THE NRN CA AND SRN OR COAST WILL BE
WEAKER AND MAY NOT EVEN PUSH VERY FAR OVER OREGON. HAVE KEPT THE
NORTHERLIES FOR NOW. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
     WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM PDT
     THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 010944
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
243 AM PDT TUE SEP  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT ALONG THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
OREGON TODAY...AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT FOR
A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ASSOCIATED
TRAILING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY EXTEND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON WEDNESDAY FOR MORE SHOWERS...AND LINGER OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY. ENERGY ON THE WEST OR BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SWING
INLAND MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL BE MORE OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND FOR IMPROVING WEATHER...THOUGH ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR SHOW A FRONT ALONG THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT HAVE SHEARED OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHWARD. THE MODELS SHOW IT SLOWLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A JET
STREAK/SHORT WAVE OUT AROUND 45N/135W THAT THE MODELS MOVE THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE FEATURE THAT WILL KEEP THE FRONT SOMEWHAT ACTIVE AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE A LOT WITH THIS
FRONT...PERHAPS A QUARTER INCH ON THE NORTH COAST AND IN THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS...UP TO A TENTH IN THE NORTH VALLEY...AND ONE OR TWO TENTHS
IN THE CASCADES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME DECENT
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OR SO OF THE DAY AS A DECENT
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL...AND MODEL LIFTED INDICES SUPPORT
THIS IDEA.

THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS AND SAGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY
FOR SOME MORE SHOWERS...AND A ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH AS
WELL. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOVERING ON ONE
SIDE OR THE OTHER OF 70 IN THE NORTH...AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER NEAR
EUGENE.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 6000 TO 7000 FEET
AROUND MOUNT HOOD NORTHWARD...THE LOWEST WE HAVE SEEN SINCE SPRING.
TOLLESON

CLIMATE FACTOID...GIVEN THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES OBSERVED SO FAR
TODAY AND NO DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...2015 WILL GO DOWN AS THE WARMEST METEOROLOGICAL
SUMMER...JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST...ON RECORD FOR PORTLAND...SALEM AND
EUGENE. RECORDS GO BACK APPROXIMATELY 120 YEARS FOR EUGENE AND
SALEM...AND 75 YEARS FOR PORTLAND. WILL PUT A GRAPHIC COMPARING THIS
YEAR TO THE PREVIOUS RECORDS ON OUR SOCIAL MEDIA SITES HOPEFULLY
BEFORE 10 PM. LINKS TO OUR SOCIAL MEDIA SITES CAN BE REACHED AT THE
BOTTOM OF THE AFD OR IN THE UPPER RIGHT HAND CORNER OF OUR HOMEPAGE.
/NEUMAN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE COMING
TOGETHER WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE INITIAL MAIN ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AND THEN
SWINGS INLAND MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH. BUT THEN WE WILL BE UNDER A
BROADER PORTION OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND EXPECT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND THAT SHOULD BRING SOME IMPROVING WEATHER TO
THE AREA. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE SOMETIME
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR
AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPEAR TO HAVE KEPT A DECENT TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT SPREAD AND THUS PREVENT LOW STRATUS FROM FORMING AT THE COAST.
STILL LOOKING LIKE POST COLD FRONTAL ONSHORE WIND WILL BRING AN IFR
DECK AROUND 18-23Z TODAY TO KAST AND A COUPLE HOURS LATER TO KONP.
INLAND SITES SHOULD NOT DROP LOWER THAN A HIGH END MVFR AT WORST AND
PROBABLY REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 035.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR ALTHOUGH CIGS CLOUDS LOWER TO 035 AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FIELD 20-23Z. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE RUNNING 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS PER
RAPIDSCAT AND ASCAT WIND PASSES. HAVE ANTICIPATED A BIT OF A COASTAL
JET DEVELOPING THIS MORNING WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS ALONG THE NRN
OREGON AND SRN WA COAST. WINDS AT CLATSOP SPIT SENSOR ARE RUNNING
AROUND 15 KT AND HAVE OVER ACHIEVED MOST MODELS THUS FAR TONIGHT. THE
HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT AND WILL FOLLOW IT`S WINDS AND
MINIMAL COASTAL JET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS COVERING THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS.
EXPECT WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KT.

THOSE WINDS MAY EXACERBATE THE ALREADY SOMEWHAT STEEP SEAS AND BRING
CONDITIONS LONG THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA UP TO 10 FT. WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON IT AS ONLY HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL STAY
IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE WITH PERIODS 11 TO 13 SECONDS THROUGH MID-DAY
TOMORROW.

A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...JUST OFFSHORE OF YAKUTAT IS
GENERATING A NORTHERLY FETCH THAT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF 10 FT
SWELL TO THE OUTER OREGON WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS,
BUT THE SURFACE THERMAL LOW OVER THE NRN CA AND SRN OR COAST WILL BE
WEAKER AND MAY NOT EVEN PUSH VERY FAR OVER OREGON. HAVE KEPT THE
NORTHERLIES FOR NOW. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
     WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM PDT
     THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 010944
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
243 AM PDT TUE SEP  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT ALONG THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
OREGON TODAY...AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT FOR
A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ASSOCIATED
TRAILING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY EXTEND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON WEDNESDAY FOR MORE SHOWERS...AND LINGER OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY. ENERGY ON THE WEST OR BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SWING
INLAND MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL BE MORE OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND FOR IMPROVING WEATHER...THOUGH ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR SHOW A FRONT ALONG THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT HAVE SHEARED OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHWARD. THE MODELS SHOW IT SLOWLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A JET
STREAK/SHORT WAVE OUT AROUND 45N/135W THAT THE MODELS MOVE THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE FEATURE THAT WILL KEEP THE FRONT SOMEWHAT ACTIVE AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE A LOT WITH THIS
FRONT...PERHAPS A QUARTER INCH ON THE NORTH COAST AND IN THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS...UP TO A TENTH IN THE NORTH VALLEY...AND ONE OR TWO TENTHS
IN THE CASCADES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME DECENT
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OR SO OF THE DAY AS A DECENT
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL...AND MODEL LIFTED INDICES SUPPORT
THIS IDEA.

THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS AND SAGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY
FOR SOME MORE SHOWERS...AND A ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH AS
WELL. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOVERING ON ONE
SIDE OR THE OTHER OF 70 IN THE NORTH...AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER NEAR
EUGENE.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 6000 TO 7000 FEET
AROUND MOUNT HOOD NORTHWARD...THE LOWEST WE HAVE SEEN SINCE SPRING.
TOLLESON

CLIMATE FACTOID...GIVEN THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES OBSERVED SO FAR
TODAY AND NO DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...2015 WILL GO DOWN AS THE WARMEST METEOROLOGICAL
SUMMER...JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST...ON RECORD FOR PORTLAND...SALEM AND
EUGENE. RECORDS GO BACK APPROXIMATELY 120 YEARS FOR EUGENE AND
SALEM...AND 75 YEARS FOR PORTLAND. WILL PUT A GRAPHIC COMPARING THIS
YEAR TO THE PREVIOUS RECORDS ON OUR SOCIAL MEDIA SITES HOPEFULLY
BEFORE 10 PM. LINKS TO OUR SOCIAL MEDIA SITES CAN BE REACHED AT THE
BOTTOM OF THE AFD OR IN THE UPPER RIGHT HAND CORNER OF OUR HOMEPAGE.
/NEUMAN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE COMING
TOGETHER WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE INITIAL MAIN ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AND THEN
SWINGS INLAND MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH. BUT THEN WE WILL BE UNDER A
BROADER PORTION OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND EXPECT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND THAT SHOULD BRING SOME IMPROVING WEATHER TO
THE AREA. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE SOMETIME
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR
AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPEAR TO HAVE KEPT A DECENT TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT SPREAD AND THUS PREVENT LOW STRATUS FROM FORMING AT THE COAST.
STILL LOOKING LIKE POST COLD FRONTAL ONSHORE WIND WILL BRING AN IFR
DECK AROUND 18-23Z TODAY TO KAST AND A COUPLE HOURS LATER TO KONP.
INLAND SITES SHOULD NOT DROP LOWER THAN A HIGH END MVFR AT WORST AND
PROBABLY REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 035.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR ALTHOUGH CIGS CLOUDS LOWER TO 035 AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FIELD 20-23Z. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE RUNNING 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS PER
RAPIDSCAT AND ASCAT WIND PASSES. HAVE ANTICIPATED A BIT OF A COASTAL
JET DEVELOPING THIS MORNING WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS ALONG THE NRN
OREGON AND SRN WA COAST. WINDS AT CLATSOP SPIT SENSOR ARE RUNNING
AROUND 15 KT AND HAVE OVER ACHIEVED MOST MODELS THUS FAR TONIGHT. THE
HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT AND WILL FOLLOW IT`S WINDS AND
MINIMAL COASTAL JET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS COVERING THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS.
EXPECT WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KT.

THOSE WINDS MAY EXACERBATE THE ALREADY SOMEWHAT STEEP SEAS AND BRING
CONDITIONS LONG THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA UP TO 10 FT. WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON IT AS ONLY HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL STAY
IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE WITH PERIODS 11 TO 13 SECONDS THROUGH MID-DAY
TOMORROW.

A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...JUST OFFSHORE OF YAKUTAT IS
GENERATING A NORTHERLY FETCH THAT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF 10 FT
SWELL TO THE OUTER OREGON WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS,
BUT THE SURFACE THERMAL LOW OVER THE NRN CA AND SRN OR COAST WILL BE
WEAKER AND MAY NOT EVEN PUSH VERY FAR OVER OREGON. HAVE KEPT THE
NORTHERLIES FOR NOW. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
     WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM PDT
     THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 010929
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
329 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH DESERTS OF
SOUTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR AND SW OWYHEE COUNTIES. THERE...WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS SW CANADA AND DRIVE A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH SE OREGON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL OVER SW IDAHO WEDNEDAY. MOISTURE WITH UPPER LOW OFFSHORE TO
NW WA...FINALLY GETS OVER THE CASCADES TO NE OREGON/S BLUE
MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MTNS OF BAKER COUNTY AND THE PAYETTE
NATIONAL FOREST.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS AGREE ON
AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DEEPENS OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
EXITING EAST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. MINS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY STARTING
SUNDAY AND RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. WE CAN EXPECT BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ANY SMOKE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN THE
KMYL AREAS. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
TO 10-20 KTS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE 15-25 KTS THROUGH UP THROUGH 10K
FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 010929
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
329 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH DESERTS OF
SOUTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR AND SW OWYHEE COUNTIES. THERE...WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS SW CANADA AND DRIVE A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH SE OREGON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL OVER SW IDAHO WEDNEDAY. MOISTURE WITH UPPER LOW OFFSHORE TO
NW WA...FINALLY GETS OVER THE CASCADES TO NE OREGON/S BLUE
MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MTNS OF BAKER COUNTY AND THE PAYETTE
NATIONAL FOREST.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS AGREE ON
AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DEEPENS OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
EXITING EAST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. MINS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY STARTING
SUNDAY AND RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. WE CAN EXPECT BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ANY SMOKE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN THE
KMYL AREAS. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
TO 10-20 KTS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE 15-25 KTS THROUGH UP THROUGH 10K
FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMFR 010800
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
100 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...01/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS
JUST OFFSHORE.

IT WILL BE DRY INITIALLY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT THE MEDFORD CWA WILL STILL CATCH THE WEAK SOUTHERN END
OF SYSTEMS MOVING ONSHORE. A SHORT WAVE EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHERN WASHINGTON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SOUTHERN
OREGON LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA
BASIN. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE
FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

THE DIGGING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT
WILL BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND FROM THE
CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. FAR NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY
MAY GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN TOO. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL DOWN TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN WHERE THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ONCE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IT
WILL HANG AROUND A WHILE AS SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP IT DIGGING IN PLACE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

COOL AIR ALOFT WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT THE
01/00Z GFS AND EC ARE BOTH DRIER THAN EXPECTED. OVERALL MOISTURE
IS LIMITED. THE EC IS A BIT WETTER THAN THE GFS...SO THAT SOLUTION
IS PREFERRED. THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS MURKIER AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO WHEN THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT TO THE EAST. THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOL
COOL AND SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD IF THE EC VERIFIES...OR
DRY WITH OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A STRONG WARMING TREND WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST IF THE GFS VERIFIES.

THE SOLUTIONS CONVERGE AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH LOOK TO BE
DRY WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND...AND POSSIBLY OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 01/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL CLEAR TO THE COAST
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT TUESDAY 1 SEPTEMBER 2015...WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MODERATE SEAS
DOMINATED BY WEST SWELL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST SWELL.
NORTH WIND AND SEAS MAY INCREASE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY OR AS LATE
AS THIS WEEKEND. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN ON THE
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS NORTH WIND INCREASE. WHILE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME...THEY ARE MORE LIKELY SUNDAY. GALES MAY DEVELOP SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/16



000
FXUS66 KMFR 010800
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
100 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...01/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS
JUST OFFSHORE.

IT WILL BE DRY INITIALLY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT THE MEDFORD CWA WILL STILL CATCH THE WEAK SOUTHERN END
OF SYSTEMS MOVING ONSHORE. A SHORT WAVE EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHERN WASHINGTON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SOUTHERN
OREGON LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA
BASIN. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE
FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

THE DIGGING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT
WILL BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND FROM THE
CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. FAR NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY
MAY GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN TOO. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL DOWN TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN WHERE THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ONCE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IT
WILL HANG AROUND A WHILE AS SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP IT DIGGING IN PLACE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

COOL AIR ALOFT WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT THE
01/00Z GFS AND EC ARE BOTH DRIER THAN EXPECTED. OVERALL MOISTURE
IS LIMITED. THE EC IS A BIT WETTER THAN THE GFS...SO THAT SOLUTION
IS PREFERRED. THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS MURKIER AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO WHEN THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT TO THE EAST. THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOL
COOL AND SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD IF THE EC VERIFIES...OR
DRY WITH OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A STRONG WARMING TREND WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST IF THE GFS VERIFIES.

THE SOLUTIONS CONVERGE AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH LOOK TO BE
DRY WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND...AND POSSIBLY OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 01/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL CLEAR TO THE COAST
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT TUESDAY 1 SEPTEMBER 2015...WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MODERATE SEAS
DOMINATED BY WEST SWELL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST SWELL.
NORTH WIND AND SEAS MAY INCREASE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY OR AS LATE
AS THIS WEEKEND. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN ON THE
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS NORTH WIND INCREASE. WHILE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME...THEY ARE MORE LIKELY SUNDAY. GALES MAY DEVELOP SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/16




000
FXUS66 KPDT 010554 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1054 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SATELLITE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS A LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED ALONG 130W
WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THE FIRST ONE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN BC IS DRAGGING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ONE IS POISED
TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR 131W AND HAS A
DRIER AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH IT, AND YET ANOTHER ONE, THE
STRONGEST BY FAR, NEAR 57N/141W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE
LAST DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THUS DIGGING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT TO ENTER THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY IN COMBINATION WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  POLAN

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY SCT-BKN200 CLOUDS AND LIGHT SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR BY MIDDAY ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SCT200-250 LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT FOR REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AT
KRDM AND KBDN WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AT KDLS. THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES WILL HAVE DRAINAGE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
LATE TUESDAY MORNING, BECOMING 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS
BY 19Z AND THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
SLOWLY DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN SOME ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE
TROUGH WILL LEAD TO THE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO SKIP OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT THE MOUNTAINS COULD END UP SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SETTLING OVER
THE REGION BUT THERE IS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY. HAVE INDICATED A
TREND TOWARDS MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY BELIEVING THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO COOL ON WEDNESDAY AND BY THURSDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD AND MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT BEGINNING
SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA TO DROP SOUTH FROM BC INTO PAC
NW ON FRIDAY. THAT MUCH MODELS AGREE UPON.  THIS WILL BRING
UNSETTLED...COOLER...AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO ALL AREAS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.
BY SUNDAY...GFS OPENS UPPER LOW INTO A WAVE AND EJECTS INTO IDAHO AND
MONTANA...WHILE GFS/CANADIAN HAVE STRONG JET LEVEL WINDS DIVING
SOUTH ON WEST SIDE OF LOW AND KEEPING IT ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON FOR ABOUT 12-18 HOURS LONGER BEFORE MOVING EAST.
SO WITH THIS IN MIND I HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING LONGER ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY WALLOWA COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AFTER LOW MOVES INTO ID/MT. IF EC/CANADIAN
MODELS PROVE CORRECT...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR.  FOR
NOW WILL JUST INCREASE POPS UNTIL MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  79  55  72 /   0   0  20  20
ALW  59  80  60  75 /   0   0  20  20
PSC  58  83  58  76 /   0   0  10  10
YKM  51  75  51  71 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  55  81  57  75 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  53  77  52  71 /  10  10  20  20
RDM  42  78  46  70 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  48  82  48  71 /   0   0  10  20
GCD  46  85  48  72 /   0   0  10  20
DLS  59  80  58  75 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

99/91/79




000
FXUS66 KPDT 010554 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1054 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SATELLITE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS A LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED ALONG 130W
WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THE FIRST ONE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN BC IS DRAGGING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ONE IS POISED
TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR 131W AND HAS A
DRIER AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH IT, AND YET ANOTHER ONE, THE
STRONGEST BY FAR, NEAR 57N/141W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE
LAST DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THUS DIGGING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT TO ENTER THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY IN COMBINATION WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  POLAN

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY SCT-BKN200 CLOUDS AND LIGHT SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR BY MIDDAY ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SCT200-250 LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT FOR REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AT
KRDM AND KBDN WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AT KDLS. THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES WILL HAVE DRAINAGE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
LATE TUESDAY MORNING, BECOMING 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS
BY 19Z AND THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
SLOWLY DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN SOME ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE
TROUGH WILL LEAD TO THE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO SKIP OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT THE MOUNTAINS COULD END UP SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SETTLING OVER
THE REGION BUT THERE IS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY. HAVE INDICATED A
TREND TOWARDS MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY BELIEVING THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO COOL ON WEDNESDAY AND BY THURSDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD AND MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT BEGINNING
SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA TO DROP SOUTH FROM BC INTO PAC
NW ON FRIDAY. THAT MUCH MODELS AGREE UPON.  THIS WILL BRING
UNSETTLED...COOLER...AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO ALL AREAS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.
BY SUNDAY...GFS OPENS UPPER LOW INTO A WAVE AND EJECTS INTO IDAHO AND
MONTANA...WHILE GFS/CANADIAN HAVE STRONG JET LEVEL WINDS DIVING
SOUTH ON WEST SIDE OF LOW AND KEEPING IT ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON FOR ABOUT 12-18 HOURS LONGER BEFORE MOVING EAST.
SO WITH THIS IN MIND I HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING LONGER ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY WALLOWA COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AFTER LOW MOVES INTO ID/MT. IF EC/CANADIAN
MODELS PROVE CORRECT...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR.  FOR
NOW WILL JUST INCREASE POPS UNTIL MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  79  55  72 /   0   0  20  20
ALW  59  80  60  75 /   0   0  20  20
PSC  58  83  58  76 /   0   0  10  10
YKM  51  75  51  71 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  55  81  57  75 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  53  77  52  71 /  10  10  20  20
RDM  42  78  46  70 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  48  82  48  71 /   0   0  10  20
GCD  46  85  48  72 /   0   0  10  20
DLS  59  80  58  75 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

99/91/79



000
FXUS66 KPQR 010352
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
843 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST...ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND IN THE CASCADES. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. WARMER DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATER IN THE WEEKEND.


&&


.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LIES A WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLIER THIS EVENING DID NOT MAKE THIS FRONT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
GIVEN THE BROKEN NATURE OF THE CLOUD COVER. NONETHELESS...A DISTINCT
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS PICKING UP A BIT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE TURNING NORTHWESTERLY AND
WEAKENING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS PUSHING ONTO THE COAST
LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE A FEW OF THEM INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT SO KEPT POPS
GENERALLY IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WHERE ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS CERTAINLY NOT GUARANTEED TO END UP WET
TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES AND QPF GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE HIGHER ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND LOWEST TOWARDS LANE COUNTY DUE TO THE FRONT
WEAKENING. SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE COAST
AND HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND VORT MAXES ROTATING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SO THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY GENERIC AT THIS POINT...MAINLY
EMPHASIZING RAIN CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

CLIMATE FACTOID...GIVEN THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES OBSERVED SO FAR
TODAY AND NO DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...2015 WILL GO DOWN AS THE WARMEST METEOROLOGICAL
SUMMER...JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST...ON RECORD FOR PORTLAND...SALEM AND
EUGENE. RECORDS GO BACK APPROXIMATELY 120 YEARS FOR EUGENE AND
SALEM...AND 75 YEARS FOR PORTLAND. WILL PUT A GRAPHIC COMPARING THIS
YEAR TO THE PREVIOUS RECORDS ON OUR SOCIAL MEDIA SITES HOPEFULLY
BEFORE 10 PM. LINKS TO OUR SOCIAL MEDIA SITES CAN BE REACHED AT THE
BOTTOM OF THE AFD OR IN THE UPPER RIGHT HAND CORNER OF OUR HOMEPAGE.
/NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN
NORMAL IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TODAY GIVEN SOME KEY DIVERGENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NW ON FRIDAY.
DETERMINISTIC 12Z RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SLOW THE PROGRESS OF
THE UPPER TROUGH..AND HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASINGLY PROMINENT...WITH
THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN OREGON THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO SUPPORTS THIS
SOLUTION...BUT A NON TRIVIAL NUMBER OF MEMBERS SEEM TO BE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS AND SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS UNDER WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. FOR THIS REASON...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AND WARMER WITH MAX
TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR NOW...BUT IF
THE ECMWF TREND IS CORRECT...SUNDAY MAY BE A COOLER AND PERHAPS
SHOWERY DAY.   CULLEN


&&


.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AROUND 5K-6K FT
THIS EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LOWER CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COAST LIKELY SEEING IFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL AS GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP
TO 25 KT. THE COAST SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR MID MORNING. EXPECT
INLAND AREAS TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE
MORNING...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AROUND 3500 FT POSSIBLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE
MORNING. CIGS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 4500-6000 FT. TJ/27


&&


.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS HAVE FINALLY EASED BELOW 20 KT THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT GUSTS AHEAD
OF AND WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OR CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP TONIGHT WITH 7 TO 8 FT HEIGHTS AT 10 TO
11 SECONDS. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...JUST OFFSHORE
OF YAKUTAT IS GENERATING A NORTHERLY FETCH THAT WILL BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 10 FT SWELL TO THE OREGON WATERS WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NE PACIFIC WED NIGHT
AND THU AS A THERMAL LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN OF NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PREVENT A TIGHT GRADIENT AND
EXPECT BELOW ADVISORY WINDS THU AND FRI. TJ


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10
     PM PDT THIS EVENING...FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM PDT TUESDAY...AND
     FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 010348
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
848 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...EVENING UPDATE. LOW CLOUDS ARE FORMING IN THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE COOS BASIN AT THIS TIME WITH THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVING
DOWN FROM THE WA/NORTHERN OR COAST. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK
AND WILL NOT UPDATE AT THIS TIME. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN AN EARLY FALL-LIKE DAY HERE IN THE
MEDFORD FORECAST AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES
STAND IN STARK CONTRAST TO JUST A WEEK AGO, WHEN SMOKE COVERED MUCH
OF THE REGION AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SYNOPTIC
MODELS DEPICT A PATTERN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES, PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED BY MORE SEASONAL AND DRY
CONDITIONS, CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SEPTEMBER.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BUT AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TOWARDS, BUT NOT QUITE TO, MORE SEASONAL
VALUES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE ONSHORE
FLOW TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND THIS WILL HELP GIVE THE
MARINE LAYER A PUSH INLAND. EXPECT FOG/LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND UMPQUA BASIN, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WHERE THE TERRAIN PROVIDES FOR MORE VERTICAL
MOTION. THE COOLER AIR EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD ALSO BRING A SHORT
PERIOD OF FROST TO THE CHEMULT, CRESCENT, AND BEATTY AREAS, BUT WE
ARE WELL PAST THE AVERAGE DATE OF FIRST FREEZE, SO NO HEADLINES WILL
BE ISSUED.

A SECOND MORE POTENT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PARENT TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS TOT HE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST IN TURN, BRINGING THE BULK OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO MAY
MAKE IT TO THE EAST SIDE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AS IT
CIRCULATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE, BUT IT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH ENERGY TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, BUT IN PARTICULAR, OVER THE EAST SIDE. THE TROUGH WILL THEN
RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL, AND AN ONGOING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF SUMMER, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CASCADES AND THE EAST
SIDE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE STILL PRODUCE A SHORT PERIOD OF RIDGING
ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE, RESULTING
IN DRY AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN, THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS LIE IN WAIT UPSTREAM IN
THE WESTERLIES, AND THESE SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA LATER
NEXT WEEK. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 01/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, EXCEPT ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN WHERE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
VFR ELSEWHERE. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE COAST
RANGE AND UMPQUA DIVIDE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT MONDAY, AUGUST 31ST, 2015... TODAY INTO
TUESDAY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MODERATE SEAS DOMINATED
BY WEST SWELL. THESE SEAS WILL BE VERY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THIS EVENING NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, LIKELY AROUND 9 FEET AT A
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST SWELL. NORTH
WIND AND SEAS MAY INCREASE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY OR AS LATE AS THIS
WEEKEND. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THIS NORTH WIND INCREASE. AT THIS POINT, WHILE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME, THEY ARE MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY. GALES HAVE BEEN
INDICATED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/TRW/BTL



000
FXUS66 KPDT 010300
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
800 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SATELLITE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS A LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED ALONG 130W
WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THE FIRST ONE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN BC IS DRAGGING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ONE IS POISED
TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR 131W AND HAS A
DRIER AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH IT, AND YET ANOTHER ONE, THE
STRONGEST BY FAR, NEAR 57N/141W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE
LAST DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THUS DIGGING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT TO ENTER THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY IN COMBINATION WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN SOME ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE
TROUGH WILL LEAD TO THE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO SKIP OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT THE MOUNTAINS COULD END UP SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SETTLING OVER
THE REGION BUT THERE IS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY. HAVE INDICATED A
TREND TOWARDS MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY BELIEVING THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO COOL ON WEDNESDAY AND BY THURSDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD AND MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT BEGINNING
SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA TO DROP SOUTH FROM BC INTO PAC
NW ON FRIDAY. THAT MUCH MODELS AGREE UPON.  THIS WILL BRING
UNSETTLED...COOLER...AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO ALL AREAS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.
BY SUNDAY...GFS OPENS UPPER LOW INTO A WAVE AND EJECTS INTO IDAHO AND
MONTANA...WHILE GFS/CANADIAN HAVE STRONG JET LEVEL WINDS DIVING
SOUTH ON WEST SIDE OF LOW AND KEEPING IT ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON FOR ABOUT 12-18 HOURS LONGER BEFORE MOVING EAST.
SO WITH THIS IN MIND I HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING LONGER ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY WALLOWA COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AFTER LOW MOVES INTO ID/MT. IF EC/CANADIAN
MODELS PROVE CORRECT...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR.  FOR
NOW WILL JUST INCREASE POPS UNTIL MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY SCT200 AND LIGHT SFC WINDS EXCEPT
G20 AT KDLS TIL 05Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  79  55  72 /   0   0  20  20
ALW  59  80  60  75 /   0   0  20  20
PSC  58  83  58  76 /   0   0  10  10
YKM  51  75  51  71 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  55  81  57  75 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  53  77  52  71 /  10  10  20  20
RDM  42  78  46  70 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  48  82  48  71 /   0   0  10  20
GCD  46  85  48  72 /   0   0  10  20
DLS  59  80  58  75 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

99/91/79




000
FXUS66 KPDT 010300
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
800 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SATELLITE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS A LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED ALONG 130W
WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THE FIRST ONE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN BC IS DRAGGING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ONE IS POISED
TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR 131W AND HAS A
DRIER AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH IT, AND YET ANOTHER ONE, THE
STRONGEST BY FAR, NEAR 57N/141W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE
LAST DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THUS DIGGING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT TO ENTER THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY IN COMBINATION WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN SOME ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE
TROUGH WILL LEAD TO THE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO SKIP OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT THE MOUNTAINS COULD END UP SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SETTLING OVER
THE REGION BUT THERE IS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY. HAVE INDICATED A
TREND TOWARDS MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY BELIEVING THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO COOL ON WEDNESDAY AND BY THURSDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD AND MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT BEGINNING
SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA TO DROP SOUTH FROM BC INTO PAC
NW ON FRIDAY. THAT MUCH MODELS AGREE UPON.  THIS WILL BRING
UNSETTLED...COOLER...AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO ALL AREAS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.
BY SUNDAY...GFS OPENS UPPER LOW INTO A WAVE AND EJECTS INTO IDAHO AND
MONTANA...WHILE GFS/CANADIAN HAVE STRONG JET LEVEL WINDS DIVING
SOUTH ON WEST SIDE OF LOW AND KEEPING IT ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON FOR ABOUT 12-18 HOURS LONGER BEFORE MOVING EAST.
SO WITH THIS IN MIND I HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING LONGER ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY WALLOWA COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AFTER LOW MOVES INTO ID/MT. IF EC/CANADIAN
MODELS PROVE CORRECT...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR.  FOR
NOW WILL JUST INCREASE POPS UNTIL MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY SCT200 AND LIGHT SFC WINDS EXCEPT
G20 AT KDLS TIL 05Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  79  55  72 /   0   0  20  20
ALW  59  80  60  75 /   0   0  20  20
PSC  58  83  58  76 /   0   0  10  10
YKM  51  75  51  71 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  55  81  57  75 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  53  77  52  71 /  10  10  20  20
RDM  42  78  46  70 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  48  82  48  71 /   0   0  10  20
GCD  46  85  48  72 /   0   0  10  20
DLS  59  80  58  75 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

99/91/79



000
FXUS66 KPDT 010300
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
800 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SATELLITE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS A LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED ALONG 130W
WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THE FIRST ONE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN BC IS DRAGGING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ONE IS POISED
TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR 131W AND HAS A
DRIER AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH IT, AND YET ANOTHER ONE, THE
STRONGEST BY FAR, NEAR 57N/141W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE
LAST DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THUS DIGGING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT TO ENTER THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY IN COMBINATION WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN SOME ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE
TROUGH WILL LEAD TO THE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO SKIP OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT THE MOUNTAINS COULD END UP SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SETTLING OVER
THE REGION BUT THERE IS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY. HAVE INDICATED A
TREND TOWARDS MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY BELIEVING THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO COOL ON WEDNESDAY AND BY THURSDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD AND MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT BEGINNING
SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA TO DROP SOUTH FROM BC INTO PAC
NW ON FRIDAY. THAT MUCH MODELS AGREE UPON.  THIS WILL BRING
UNSETTLED...COOLER...AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO ALL AREAS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.
BY SUNDAY...GFS OPENS UPPER LOW INTO A WAVE AND EJECTS INTO IDAHO AND
MONTANA...WHILE GFS/CANADIAN HAVE STRONG JET LEVEL WINDS DIVING
SOUTH ON WEST SIDE OF LOW AND KEEPING IT ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON FOR ABOUT 12-18 HOURS LONGER BEFORE MOVING EAST.
SO WITH THIS IN MIND I HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING LONGER ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY WALLOWA COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AFTER LOW MOVES INTO ID/MT. IF EC/CANADIAN
MODELS PROVE CORRECT...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR.  FOR
NOW WILL JUST INCREASE POPS UNTIL MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY SCT200 AND LIGHT SFC WINDS EXCEPT
G20 AT KDLS TIL 05Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  79  55  72 /   0   0  20  20
ALW  59  80  60  75 /   0   0  20  20
PSC  58  83  58  76 /   0   0  10  10
YKM  51  75  51  71 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  55  81  57  75 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  53  77  52  71 /  10  10  20  20
RDM  42  78  46  70 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  48  82  48  71 /   0   0  10  20
GCD  46  85  48  72 /   0   0  10  20
DLS  59  80  58  75 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

99/91/79




000
FXUS66 KPDT 010300
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
800 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SATELLITE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS A LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED ALONG 130W
WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THE FIRST ONE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN BC IS DRAGGING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ONE IS POISED
TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR 131W AND HAS A
DRIER AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH IT, AND YET ANOTHER ONE, THE
STRONGEST BY FAR, NEAR 57N/141W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE
LAST DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THUS DIGGING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT TO ENTER THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY IN COMBINATION WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN SOME ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE
TROUGH WILL LEAD TO THE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO SKIP OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT THE MOUNTAINS COULD END UP SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SETTLING OVER
THE REGION BUT THERE IS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY. HAVE INDICATED A
TREND TOWARDS MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY BELIEVING THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO COOL ON WEDNESDAY AND BY THURSDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD AND MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT BEGINNING
SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA TO DROP SOUTH FROM BC INTO PAC
NW ON FRIDAY. THAT MUCH MODELS AGREE UPON.  THIS WILL BRING
UNSETTLED...COOLER...AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO ALL AREAS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.
BY SUNDAY...GFS OPENS UPPER LOW INTO A WAVE AND EJECTS INTO IDAHO AND
MONTANA...WHILE GFS/CANADIAN HAVE STRONG JET LEVEL WINDS DIVING
SOUTH ON WEST SIDE OF LOW AND KEEPING IT ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON FOR ABOUT 12-18 HOURS LONGER BEFORE MOVING EAST.
SO WITH THIS IN MIND I HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING LONGER ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY WALLOWA COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AFTER LOW MOVES INTO ID/MT. IF EC/CANADIAN
MODELS PROVE CORRECT...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR.  FOR
NOW WILL JUST INCREASE POPS UNTIL MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY SCT200 AND LIGHT SFC WINDS EXCEPT
G20 AT KDLS TIL 05Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  79  55  72 /   0   0  20  20
ALW  59  80  60  75 /   0   0  20  20
PSC  58  83  58  76 /   0   0  10  10
YKM  51  75  51  71 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  55  81  57  75 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  53  77  52  71 /  10  10  20  20
RDM  42  78  46  70 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  48  82  48  71 /   0   0  10  20
GCD  46  85  48  72 /   0   0  10  20
DLS  59  80  58  75 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

99/91/79



000
FXUS65 KBOI 010235
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
835 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST DEEPENS AND PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS DRY PATTERN. EXPECTING
WINDS TO PICK UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. ANY SMOKE
LAYERS OR REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE KBKE AND KMYL TERMINALS AND POINTS NORTH AND
WEST. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SE OREGON. W-SW WINDS 15-25 KTS ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DIRECT A WARM
AND DRY AIR MASS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING BAKER COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT ARE BOTH MARGINAL...BUT
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN BAKER COUNTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.  AXIS OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH.  THIS TROUGH SLOWLY OPENS UP
AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATED A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO BAKER COUNTY OREGON
AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO.  FRONT SEEMS TO STALL
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BUT AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST.  CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS LOW BUT
THINKING IS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE 60S.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION.....DG
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 010235
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
835 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST DEEPENS AND PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS DRY PATTERN. EXPECTING
WINDS TO PICK UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. ANY SMOKE
LAYERS OR REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE KBKE AND KMYL TERMINALS AND POINTS NORTH AND
WEST. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SE OREGON. W-SW WINDS 15-25 KTS ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DIRECT A WARM
AND DRY AIR MASS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING BAKER COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT ARE BOTH MARGINAL...BUT
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN BAKER COUNTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.  AXIS OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH.  THIS TROUGH SLOWLY OPENS UP
AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATED A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO BAKER COUNTY OREGON
AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO.  FRONT SEEMS TO STALL
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BUT AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST.  CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS LOW BUT
THINKING IS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE 60S.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION.....DG
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 010235
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
835 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST DEEPENS AND PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS DRY PATTERN. EXPECTING
WINDS TO PICK UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. ANY SMOKE
LAYERS OR REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE KBKE AND KMYL TERMINALS AND POINTS NORTH AND
WEST. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SE OREGON. W-SW WINDS 15-25 KTS ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DIRECT A WARM
AND DRY AIR MASS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING BAKER COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT ARE BOTH MARGINAL...BUT
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN BAKER COUNTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.  AXIS OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH.  THIS TROUGH SLOWLY OPENS UP
AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATED A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO BAKER COUNTY OREGON
AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO.  FRONT SEEMS TO STALL
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BUT AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST.  CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS LOW BUT
THINKING IS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE 60S.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION.....DG
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 010235
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
835 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST DEEPENS AND PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS DRY PATTERN. EXPECTING
WINDS TO PICK UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. ANY SMOKE
LAYERS OR REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE KBKE AND KMYL TERMINALS AND POINTS NORTH AND
WEST. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SE OREGON. W-SW WINDS 15-25 KTS ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DIRECT A WARM
AND DRY AIR MASS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING BAKER COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT ARE BOTH MARGINAL...BUT
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN BAKER COUNTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.  AXIS OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH.  THIS TROUGH SLOWLY OPENS UP
AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATED A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO BAKER COUNTY OREGON
AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO.  FRONT SEEMS TO STALL
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BUT AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST.  CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS LOW BUT
THINKING IS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE 60S.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION.....DG
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH




000
FXUS66 KMFR 010115
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
615 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN AN EARLY FALL-LIKE DAY HERE IN THE
MEDFORD FORECAST AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES
STAND IN STARK CONTRAST TO JUST A WEEK AGO, WHEN SMOKE COVERED
MUCH OF THE REGION AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
SYNOPTIC MODELS DEPICT A PATTERN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED BY MORE SEASONAL
AND DRY CONDITIONS, CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
SEPTEMBER.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BUT AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TOWARDS, BUT NOT QUITE TO, MORE SEASONAL
VALUES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE ONSHORE
FLOW TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND THIS WILL HELP GIVE THE
MARINE LAYER A PUSH INLAND. EXPECT FOG/LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND UMPQUA BASIN, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WHERE THE TERRAIN PROVIDES FOR MORE VERTICAL
MOTION. THE COOLER AIR EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD ALSO BRING A SHORT
PERIOD OF FROST TO THE CHEMULT, CRESCENT, AND BEATTY AREAS, BUT WE
ARE WELL PAST THE AVERAGE DATE OF FIRST FREEZE, SO NO HEADLINES WILL
BE ISSUED.

A SECOND MORE POTENT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PARENT TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS TOT HE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST IN TURN, BRINGING THE BULK OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO MAY
MAKE IT TO THE EAST SIDE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AS IT
CIRCULATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE, BUT IT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH ENERGY TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, BUT IN PARTICULAR, OVER THE EAST SIDE. THE TROUGH WILL THEN
RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL, AND AN ONGOING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF SUMMER, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CASCADES AND THE EAST
SIDE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE STILL PRODUCE A SHORT PERIOD OF RIDGING
ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE, RESULTING
IN DRY AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN, THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS LIE IN WAIT UPSTREAM IN
THE WESTERLIES, AND THESE SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA LATER
NEXT WEEK. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 01/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, EXCEPT ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN WHERE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
VFR ELSEWHERE. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE COAST
RANGE AND UMPQUA DIVIDE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT MONDAY, AUGUST 31ST, 2015... TODAY INTO
TUESDAY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MODERATE SEAS DOMINATED
BY WEST SWELL. THESE SEAS WILL BE VERY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THIS EVENING NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, LIKELY AROUND 9 FEET AT A
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST SWELL. NORTH
WIND AND SEAS MAY INCREASE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY OR AS LATE AS THIS
WEEKEND. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THIS NORTH WIND INCREASE. AT THIS POINT, WHILE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME, THEY ARE MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY. GALES HAVE BEEN
INDICATED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/TRW/BTL



000
FXUS66 KMFR 010115
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
615 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN AN EARLY FALL-LIKE DAY HERE IN THE
MEDFORD FORECAST AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES
STAND IN STARK CONTRAST TO JUST A WEEK AGO, WHEN SMOKE COVERED
MUCH OF THE REGION AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
SYNOPTIC MODELS DEPICT A PATTERN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED BY MORE SEASONAL
AND DRY CONDITIONS, CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
SEPTEMBER.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BUT AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TOWARDS, BUT NOT QUITE TO, MORE SEASONAL
VALUES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE ONSHORE
FLOW TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND THIS WILL HELP GIVE THE
MARINE LAYER A PUSH INLAND. EXPECT FOG/LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND UMPQUA BASIN, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WHERE THE TERRAIN PROVIDES FOR MORE VERTICAL
MOTION. THE COOLER AIR EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD ALSO BRING A SHORT
PERIOD OF FROST TO THE CHEMULT, CRESCENT, AND BEATTY AREAS, BUT WE
ARE WELL PAST THE AVERAGE DATE OF FIRST FREEZE, SO NO HEADLINES WILL
BE ISSUED.

A SECOND MORE POTENT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PARENT TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS TOT HE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST IN TURN, BRINGING THE BULK OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO MAY
MAKE IT TO THE EAST SIDE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AS IT
CIRCULATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE, BUT IT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH ENERGY TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, BUT IN PARTICULAR, OVER THE EAST SIDE. THE TROUGH WILL THEN
RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL, AND AN ONGOING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF SUMMER, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CASCADES AND THE EAST
SIDE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE STILL PRODUCE A SHORT PERIOD OF RIDGING
ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE, RESULTING
IN DRY AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN, THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS LIE IN WAIT UPSTREAM IN
THE WESTERLIES, AND THESE SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA LATER
NEXT WEEK. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 01/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, EXCEPT ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN WHERE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
VFR ELSEWHERE. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE COAST
RANGE AND UMPQUA DIVIDE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT MONDAY, AUGUST 31ST, 2015... TODAY INTO
TUESDAY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MODERATE SEAS DOMINATED
BY WEST SWELL. THESE SEAS WILL BE VERY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THIS EVENING NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, LIKELY AROUND 9 FEET AT A
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST SWELL. NORTH
WIND AND SEAS MAY INCREASE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY OR AS LATE AS THIS
WEEKEND. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THIS NORTH WIND INCREASE. AT THIS POINT, WHILE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME, THEY ARE MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY. GALES HAVE BEEN
INDICATED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/TRW/BTL



000
FXUS66 KMFR 010115
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
615 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN AN EARLY FALL-LIKE DAY HERE IN THE
MEDFORD FORECAST AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES
STAND IN STARK CONTRAST TO JUST A WEEK AGO, WHEN SMOKE COVERED
MUCH OF THE REGION AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
SYNOPTIC MODELS DEPICT A PATTERN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED BY MORE SEASONAL
AND DRY CONDITIONS, CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
SEPTEMBER.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BUT AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TOWARDS, BUT NOT QUITE TO, MORE SEASONAL
VALUES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE ONSHORE
FLOW TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND THIS WILL HELP GIVE THE
MARINE LAYER A PUSH INLAND. EXPECT FOG/LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND UMPQUA BASIN, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WHERE THE TERRAIN PROVIDES FOR MORE VERTICAL
MOTION. THE COOLER AIR EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD ALSO BRING A SHORT
PERIOD OF FROST TO THE CHEMULT, CRESCENT, AND BEATTY AREAS, BUT WE
ARE WELL PAST THE AVERAGE DATE OF FIRST FREEZE, SO NO HEADLINES WILL
BE ISSUED.

A SECOND MORE POTENT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PARENT TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS TOT HE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST IN TURN, BRINGING THE BULK OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO MAY
MAKE IT TO THE EAST SIDE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AS IT
CIRCULATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE, BUT IT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH ENERGY TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, BUT IN PARTICULAR, OVER THE EAST SIDE. THE TROUGH WILL THEN
RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL, AND AN ONGOING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF SUMMER, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CASCADES AND THE EAST
SIDE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE STILL PRODUCE A SHORT PERIOD OF RIDGING
ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE, RESULTING
IN DRY AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN, THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS LIE IN WAIT UPSTREAM IN
THE WESTERLIES, AND THESE SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA LATER
NEXT WEEK. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 01/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, EXCEPT ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN WHERE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
VFR ELSEWHERE. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE COAST
RANGE AND UMPQUA DIVIDE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT MONDAY, AUGUST 31ST, 2015... TODAY INTO
TUESDAY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MODERATE SEAS DOMINATED
BY WEST SWELL. THESE SEAS WILL BE VERY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THIS EVENING NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, LIKELY AROUND 9 FEET AT A
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST SWELL. NORTH
WIND AND SEAS MAY INCREASE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY OR AS LATE AS THIS
WEEKEND. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THIS NORTH WIND INCREASE. AT THIS POINT, WHILE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME, THEY ARE MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY. GALES HAVE BEEN
INDICATED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/TRW/BTL



000
FXUS66 KMFR 010115
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
615 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN AN EARLY FALL-LIKE DAY HERE IN THE
MEDFORD FORECAST AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES
STAND IN STARK CONTRAST TO JUST A WEEK AGO, WHEN SMOKE COVERED
MUCH OF THE REGION AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
SYNOPTIC MODELS DEPICT A PATTERN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED BY MORE SEASONAL
AND DRY CONDITIONS, CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
SEPTEMBER.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BUT AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TOWARDS, BUT NOT QUITE TO, MORE SEASONAL
VALUES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE ONSHORE
FLOW TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND THIS WILL HELP GIVE THE
MARINE LAYER A PUSH INLAND. EXPECT FOG/LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND UMPQUA BASIN, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WHERE THE TERRAIN PROVIDES FOR MORE VERTICAL
MOTION. THE COOLER AIR EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD ALSO BRING A SHORT
PERIOD OF FROST TO THE CHEMULT, CRESCENT, AND BEATTY AREAS, BUT WE
ARE WELL PAST THE AVERAGE DATE OF FIRST FREEZE, SO NO HEADLINES WILL
BE ISSUED.

A SECOND MORE POTENT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PARENT TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS TOT HE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST IN TURN, BRINGING THE BULK OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO MAY
MAKE IT TO THE EAST SIDE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AS IT
CIRCULATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE, BUT IT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH ENERGY TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, BUT IN PARTICULAR, OVER THE EAST SIDE. THE TROUGH WILL THEN
RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL, AND AN ONGOING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF SUMMER, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CASCADES AND THE EAST
SIDE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE STILL PRODUCE A SHORT PERIOD OF RIDGING
ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE, RESULTING
IN DRY AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN, THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS LIE IN WAIT UPSTREAM IN
THE WESTERLIES, AND THESE SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA LATER
NEXT WEEK. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 01/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, EXCEPT ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN WHERE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
VFR ELSEWHERE. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE COAST
RANGE AND UMPQUA DIVIDE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT MONDAY, AUGUST 31ST, 2015... TODAY INTO
TUESDAY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MODERATE SEAS DOMINATED
BY WEST SWELL. THESE SEAS WILL BE VERY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THIS EVENING NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, LIKELY AROUND 9 FEET AT A
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST SWELL. NORTH
WIND AND SEAS MAY INCREASE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY OR AS LATE AS THIS
WEEKEND. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THIS NORTH WIND INCREASE. AT THIS POINT, WHILE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME, THEY ARE MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY. GALES HAVE BEEN
INDICATED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/TRW/BTL



000
FXUS66 KMFR 010115
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
615 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN AN EARLY FALL-LIKE DAY HERE IN THE
MEDFORD FORECAST AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES
STAND IN STARK CONTRAST TO JUST A WEEK AGO, WHEN SMOKE COVERED
MUCH OF THE REGION AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
SYNOPTIC MODELS DEPICT A PATTERN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED BY MORE SEASONAL
AND DRY CONDITIONS, CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
SEPTEMBER.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BUT AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TOWARDS, BUT NOT QUITE TO, MORE SEASONAL
VALUES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE ONSHORE
FLOW TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND THIS WILL HELP GIVE THE
MARINE LAYER A PUSH INLAND. EXPECT FOG/LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND UMPQUA BASIN, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WHERE THE TERRAIN PROVIDES FOR MORE VERTICAL
MOTION. THE COOLER AIR EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD ALSO BRING A SHORT
PERIOD OF FROST TO THE CHEMULT, CRESCENT, AND BEATTY AREAS, BUT WE
ARE WELL PAST THE AVERAGE DATE OF FIRST FREEZE, SO NO HEADLINES WILL
BE ISSUED.

A SECOND MORE POTENT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PARENT TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS TOT HE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST IN TURN, BRINGING THE BULK OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO MAY
MAKE IT TO THE EAST SIDE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AS IT
CIRCULATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE, BUT IT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH ENERGY TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, BUT IN PARTICULAR, OVER THE EAST SIDE. THE TROUGH WILL THEN
RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL, AND AN ONGOING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF SUMMER, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CASCADES AND THE EAST
SIDE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE STILL PRODUCE A SHORT PERIOD OF RIDGING
ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE, RESULTING
IN DRY AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN, THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS LIE IN WAIT UPSTREAM IN
THE WESTERLIES, AND THESE SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA LATER
NEXT WEEK. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 01/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, EXCEPT ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN WHERE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
VFR ELSEWHERE. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE COAST
RANGE AND UMPQUA DIVIDE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT MONDAY, AUGUST 31ST, 2015... TODAY INTO
TUESDAY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MODERATE SEAS DOMINATED
BY WEST SWELL. THESE SEAS WILL BE VERY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THIS EVENING NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, LIKELY AROUND 9 FEET AT A
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST SWELL. NORTH
WIND AND SEAS MAY INCREASE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY OR AS LATE AS THIS
WEEKEND. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THIS NORTH WIND INCREASE. AT THIS POINT, WHILE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME, THEY ARE MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY. GALES HAVE BEEN
INDICATED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/TRW/BTL



000
FXUS66 KMFR 312146
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
246 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN AN EARLY FALL-LIKE DAY HERE IN THE
MEDFORD FORECAST AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES
STAND IN STARK CONTRAST TO JUST A WEEK AGO, WHEN SMOKE COVERED
MUCH OF THE REGION AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
SYNOPTIC MODELS DEPICT A PATTERN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED BY MORE SEASONAL
AND DRY CONDITIONS, CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
SEPTEMBER.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BUT AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TOWARDS, BUT NOT QUITE TO, MORE SEASONAL
VALUES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE ONSHORE
FLOW TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND THIS WILL HELP GIVE THE
MARINE LAYER A PUSH INLAND. EXPECT FOG/LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND UMPQUA BASIN, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WHERE THE TERRAIN PROVIDES FOR MORE VERTICAL
MOTION. THE COOLER AIR EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD ALSO BRING A SHORT
PERIOD OF FROST TO THE CHEMULT, CRESCENT, AND BEATTY AREAS, BUT WE
ARE WELL PAST THE AVERAGE DATE OF FIRST FREEZE, SO NO HEADLINES WILL
BE ISSUED.

A SECOND MORE POTENT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PARENT TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS TOT HE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST IN TURN, BRINGING THE BULK OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO MAY
MAKE IT TO THE EAST SIDE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AS IT
CIRCULATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE, BUT IT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH ENERGY TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, BUT IN PARTICULAR, OVER THE EAST SIDE. THE TROUGH WILL THEN
RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL, AND AN ONGOING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF SUMMER, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CASCADES AND THE EAST
SIDE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE STILL PRODUCE A SHORT PERIOD OF RIDGING
ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE, RESULTING
IN DRY AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN, THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS LIE IN WAIT UPSTREAM IN
THE WESTERLIES, AND THESE SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA LATER
NEXT WEEK. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS WILL
MOVE INTO THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND SPILL INTO THE UMPQUA TOWARD
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT MONDAY, AUGUST 31ST, 2015... TODAY INTO
TUESDAY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MODERATE SEAS DOMINATED
BY WEST SWELL. THESE SEAS WILL BE VERY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THIS EVENING NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, LIKELY AROUND 9 FEET AT A
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST SWELL. NORTH
WIND AND SEAS MAY INCREASE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY OR AS LATE AS THIS
WEEKEND. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THIS NORTH WIND INCREASE. AT THIS POINT, WHILE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME, THEY ARE MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY. GALES HAVE BEEN
INDICATED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BTL


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/TRW/BTL



000
FXUS66 KMFR 312146
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
246 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN AN EARLY FALL-LIKE DAY HERE IN THE
MEDFORD FORECAST AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES
STAND IN STARK CONTRAST TO JUST A WEEK AGO, WHEN SMOKE COVERED
MUCH OF THE REGION AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
SYNOPTIC MODELS DEPICT A PATTERN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED BY MORE SEASONAL
AND DRY CONDITIONS, CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
SEPTEMBER.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BUT AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TOWARDS, BUT NOT QUITE TO, MORE SEASONAL
VALUES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE ONSHORE
FLOW TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND THIS WILL HELP GIVE THE
MARINE LAYER A PUSH INLAND. EXPECT FOG/LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND UMPQUA BASIN, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WHERE THE TERRAIN PROVIDES FOR MORE VERTICAL
MOTION. THE COOLER AIR EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD ALSO BRING A SHORT
PERIOD OF FROST TO THE CHEMULT, CRESCENT, AND BEATTY AREAS, BUT WE
ARE WELL PAST THE AVERAGE DATE OF FIRST FREEZE, SO NO HEADLINES WILL
BE ISSUED.

A SECOND MORE POTENT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PARENT TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS TOT HE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST IN TURN, BRINGING THE BULK OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO MAY
MAKE IT TO THE EAST SIDE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AS IT
CIRCULATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE, BUT IT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH ENERGY TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, BUT IN PARTICULAR, OVER THE EAST SIDE. THE TROUGH WILL THEN
RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL, AND AN ONGOING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF SUMMER, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CASCADES AND THE EAST
SIDE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE STILL PRODUCE A SHORT PERIOD OF RIDGING
ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE, RESULTING
IN DRY AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN, THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS LIE IN WAIT UPSTREAM IN
THE WESTERLIES, AND THESE SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA LATER
NEXT WEEK. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS WILL
MOVE INTO THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND SPILL INTO THE UMPQUA TOWARD
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT MONDAY, AUGUST 31ST, 2015... TODAY INTO
TUESDAY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MODERATE SEAS DOMINATED
BY WEST SWELL. THESE SEAS WILL BE VERY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THIS EVENING NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, LIKELY AROUND 9 FEET AT A
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST SWELL. NORTH
WIND AND SEAS MAY INCREASE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY OR AS LATE AS THIS
WEEKEND. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THIS NORTH WIND INCREASE. AT THIS POINT, WHILE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME, THEY ARE MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY. GALES HAVE BEEN
INDICATED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BTL


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/TRW/BTL




000
FXUS66 KPDT 312113
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
212 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN SOME ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE
TROUGH WILL LEAD TO THE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO SKIP OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT THE MOUNTAINS COULD END UP SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SETTLING OVER
THE REGION BUT THERE IS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY. HAVE INDICATED A
TREND TOWARDS MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY BELIEVING THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO COOL ON WEDNESDAY AND BY THURSDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD AND MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT BEGINNING
SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA TO DROP SOUTH FROM BC INTO PAC
NW ON FRIDAY. THAT MUCH MODELS AGREE UPON.  THIS WILL BRING
UNSETTLED...COOLER...AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO ALL AREAS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.
BY SUNDAY...GFS OPENS UPPER LOW INTO A WAVE AND EJECTS INTO IDAHO AND
MONTANA...WHILE GFS/CANADIAN HAVE STRONG JET LEVEL WINDS DIVING
SOUTH ON WEST SIDE OF LOW AND KEEPING IT ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON FOR ABOUT 12-18 HOURS LONGER BEFORE MOVING EAST.
SO WITH THIS IN MIND I HAVE KEPT CHC POPS GOING LONGER ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY WALLOWA COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AFTER LOW MOVES INTO ID/MT. IF EC/CANADIAN
MODELS PROVE CORRECT...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR.  FOR
NOW WILL JUST INCREASE POPS UNTIL MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT.


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY SCT200 AND LGT SFC WINDS EXCEPT G20 AT
KDLS TIL 05Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  79  55  72 /   0   0  20  20
ALW  59  80  60  75 /   0   0  20  20
PSC  58  83  58  76 /   0   0  10  10
YKM  51  75  51  71 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  55  81  57  75 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  53  77  52  71 /  10  10  20  20
RDM  42  78  46  70 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  48  82  48  71 /   0   0  10  20
GCD  46  85  48  72 /   0   0  10  20
DLS  59  80  58  75 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/79/79



000
FXUS66 KPQR 312103
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
203 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER OREGON MON WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE AND TUE EVENING FOR
A CHANCE OF RAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE IN WED
AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES OVER SE AK MON
AFTERNOON HAD A 130 KT JET AT 300MB IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. JET WILL AID IN DIGGING THE TROUGH...AS WELL AS TRANSLATING
IT E OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS AGREE THAT THIS PUSHES A
WEAK COLD FRONT SE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN WED AND THU.

SURFACE OBS AND RADAR HAVE SHOWN LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE AND SW WA...BASICALLY TO THE NW OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE WHERE THERE IS LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. WITH A
CONTINUATION OF A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS
PATTERN OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUE UPPER HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO FALL...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE FRONT INLAND MIDDAY TUE...AND THROUGH
THE SE CRONER OF THE AREA TUE EVENING. WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE BELOW 700MB...WILL CARRY LIKELY OR BETTER POPS ACROSS THE
N...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE S.

A CHANGE OVER TO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR TUE NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWS AND SETTLES
IN OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THERE IS NOT GREAT AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS
AS TO WHEN THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS...NAM AND EC SUGGEST
WED EVENING. WITH COOL AIR ALOFT MOVING IN COUPLED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING BEST INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY WED. WILL
CARRY HIGHEST POPS FOR THE SHOWERY AIR MASS WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N
PART OF THE AREA WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEPEST INSTABILITY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS LATER WED NIGHT INTO THU AS
INSTABILITY DECREASE SOME IN RESPONSE TO COOLING OF LOWER LEVELS.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL NEXT FEW DAYS...EVEN COOLING
A FEW DEGREES WED AND THU BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN
NORMAL IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TODAY GIVEN SOME KEY DIVERGENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NW ON FRIDAY.
DETERMINISTIC 12Z RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SLOW THE PROGRESS OF
THE UPPER TROUGH..AND HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASINGLY PROMINENT...WITH
THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN OREGON THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO SUPPORTS THIS
SOLUTION...BUT A NON TRIVIAL NUMBER OF MEMBERS SEEM TO BE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS AND SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS UNDER WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. FOR THIS REASON...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AND WARMER WITH MAX
TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR NOW...BUT IF
THE ECMWF TREND IS CORRECT...SUNDAY MAY BE A COOLER AND PERHAPS
SHOWERY DAY.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...THE WARM FRONT HAS HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE AVIATION
WEATHER AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
NORTH COAST WHERE CIGS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE COAST WILL LIKELY
SEE IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL
AS GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KT. THE COAST SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
MID MORNING. EXPECT INLAND AREAS TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE
MORNING. TJ

&&

.MARINE...COASTAL OBSERVATIONS AND BAR REPORTS SUGGESTS THAT THE
SOUTH WINDS ARE EASING BELOW 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL END THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 3 PM. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE HIGHER
GUSTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OR CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY. SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH 7 TO 8 FT HEIGHTS AT 10 TO 11 SECONDS. A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA...JUST OFFSHORE OF YAKUTAT IS GENERATING A
NORTHERLY FETCH THAT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF 10 FT SWELL TO
THE OREGON WATERS WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NE PACIFIC WED NIGHT
AND THU AS A THERMAL LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN OF NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PREVENT A TIGHT GRADIENT AND
EXPECT BELOW ADVISORY WINDS THU AND FRI. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS EVENING
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
    OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 AM
     TO 9 AM PDT TUESDAY.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 312103
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
203 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER OREGON MON WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE AND TUE EVENING FOR
A CHANCE OF RAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE IN WED
AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES OVER SE AK MON
AFTERNOON HAD A 130 KT JET AT 300MB IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. JET WILL AID IN DIGGING THE TROUGH...AS WELL AS TRANSLATING
IT E OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS AGREE THAT THIS PUSHES A
WEAK COLD FRONT SE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN WED AND THU.

SURFACE OBS AND RADAR HAVE SHOWN LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE AND SW WA...BASICALLY TO THE NW OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE WHERE THERE IS LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. WITH A
CONTINUATION OF A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS
PATTERN OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUE UPPER HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO FALL...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE FRONT INLAND MIDDAY TUE...AND THROUGH
THE SE CRONER OF THE AREA TUE EVENING. WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE BELOW 700MB...WILL CARRY LIKELY OR BETTER POPS ACROSS THE
N...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE S.

A CHANGE OVER TO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR TUE NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWS AND SETTLES
IN OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THERE IS NOT GREAT AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS
AS TO WHEN THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS...NAM AND EC SUGGEST
WED EVENING. WITH COOL AIR ALOFT MOVING IN COUPLED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING BEST INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY WED. WILL
CARRY HIGHEST POPS FOR THE SHOWERY AIR MASS WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N
PART OF THE AREA WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEPEST INSTABILITY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS LATER WED NIGHT INTO THU AS
INSTABILITY DECREASE SOME IN RESPONSE TO COOLING OF LOWER LEVELS.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL NEXT FEW DAYS...EVEN COOLING
A FEW DEGREES WED AND THU BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN
NORMAL IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TODAY GIVEN SOME KEY DIVERGENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NW ON FRIDAY.
DETERMINISTIC 12Z RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SLOW THE PROGRESS OF
THE UPPER TROUGH..AND HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASINGLY PROMINENT...WITH
THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN OREGON THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO SUPPORTS THIS
SOLUTION...BUT A NON TRIVIAL NUMBER OF MEMBERS SEEM TO BE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS AND SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS UNDER WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. FOR THIS REASON...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AND WARMER WITH MAX
TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR NOW...BUT IF
THE ECMWF TREND IS CORRECT...SUNDAY MAY BE A COOLER AND PERHAPS
SHOWERY DAY.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...THE WARM FRONT HAS HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE AVIATION
WEATHER AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
NORTH COAST WHERE CIGS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE COAST WILL LIKELY
SEE IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL
AS GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KT. THE COAST SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
MID MORNING. EXPECT INLAND AREAS TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE
MORNING. TJ

&&

.MARINE...COASTAL OBSERVATIONS AND BAR REPORTS SUGGESTS THAT THE
SOUTH WINDS ARE EASING BELOW 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL END THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 3 PM. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE HIGHER
GUSTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OR CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY. SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH 7 TO 8 FT HEIGHTS AT 10 TO 11 SECONDS. A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA...JUST OFFSHORE OF YAKUTAT IS GENERATING A
NORTHERLY FETCH THAT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF 10 FT SWELL TO
THE OREGON WATERS WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NE PACIFIC WED NIGHT
AND THU AS A THERMAL LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN OF NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PREVENT A TIGHT GRADIENT AND
EXPECT BELOW ADVISORY WINDS THU AND FRI. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS EVENING
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
    OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 AM
     TO 9 AM PDT TUESDAY.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 312103
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
203 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER OREGON MON WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE AND TUE EVENING FOR
A CHANCE OF RAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE IN WED
AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES OVER SE AK MON
AFTERNOON HAD A 130 KT JET AT 300MB IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. JET WILL AID IN DIGGING THE TROUGH...AS WELL AS TRANSLATING
IT E OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS AGREE THAT THIS PUSHES A
WEAK COLD FRONT SE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN WED AND THU.

SURFACE OBS AND RADAR HAVE SHOWN LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE AND SW WA...BASICALLY TO THE NW OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE WHERE THERE IS LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. WITH A
CONTINUATION OF A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS
PATTERN OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUE UPPER HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO FALL...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE FRONT INLAND MIDDAY TUE...AND THROUGH
THE SE CRONER OF THE AREA TUE EVENING. WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE BELOW 700MB...WILL CARRY LIKELY OR BETTER POPS ACROSS THE
N...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE S.

A CHANGE OVER TO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR TUE NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWS AND SETTLES
IN OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THERE IS NOT GREAT AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS
AS TO WHEN THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS...NAM AND EC SUGGEST
WED EVENING. WITH COOL AIR ALOFT MOVING IN COUPLED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING BEST INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY WED. WILL
CARRY HIGHEST POPS FOR THE SHOWERY AIR MASS WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N
PART OF THE AREA WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEPEST INSTABILITY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS LATER WED NIGHT INTO THU AS
INSTABILITY DECREASE SOME IN RESPONSE TO COOLING OF LOWER LEVELS.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL NEXT FEW DAYS...EVEN COOLING
A FEW DEGREES WED AND THU BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN
NORMAL IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TODAY GIVEN SOME KEY DIVERGENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NW ON FRIDAY.
DETERMINISTIC 12Z RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SLOW THE PROGRESS OF
THE UPPER TROUGH..AND HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASINGLY PROMINENT...WITH
THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN OREGON THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO SUPPORTS THIS
SOLUTION...BUT A NON TRIVIAL NUMBER OF MEMBERS SEEM TO BE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS AND SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS UNDER WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. FOR THIS REASON...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AND WARMER WITH MAX
TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR NOW...BUT IF
THE ECMWF TREND IS CORRECT...SUNDAY MAY BE A COOLER AND PERHAPS
SHOWERY DAY.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...THE WARM FRONT HAS HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE AVIATION
WEATHER AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
NORTH COAST WHERE CIGS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE COAST WILL LIKELY
SEE IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL
AS GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KT. THE COAST SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
MID MORNING. EXPECT INLAND AREAS TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE
MORNING. TJ

&&

.MARINE...COASTAL OBSERVATIONS AND BAR REPORTS SUGGESTS THAT THE
SOUTH WINDS ARE EASING BELOW 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL END THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 3 PM. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE HIGHER
GUSTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OR CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY. SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH 7 TO 8 FT HEIGHTS AT 10 TO 11 SECONDS. A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA...JUST OFFSHORE OF YAKUTAT IS GENERATING A
NORTHERLY FETCH THAT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF 10 FT SWELL TO
THE OREGON WATERS WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NE PACIFIC WED NIGHT
AND THU AS A THERMAL LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN OF NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PREVENT A TIGHT GRADIENT AND
EXPECT BELOW ADVISORY WINDS THU AND FRI. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS EVENING
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
    OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 AM
     TO 9 AM PDT TUESDAY.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 312103
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
203 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER OREGON MON WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE AND TUE EVENING FOR
A CHANCE OF RAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE IN WED
AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES OVER SE AK MON
AFTERNOON HAD A 130 KT JET AT 300MB IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. JET WILL AID IN DIGGING THE TROUGH...AS WELL AS TRANSLATING
IT E OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS AGREE THAT THIS PUSHES A
WEAK COLD FRONT SE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN WED AND THU.

SURFACE OBS AND RADAR HAVE SHOWN LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE AND SW WA...BASICALLY TO THE NW OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE WHERE THERE IS LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. WITH A
CONTINUATION OF A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS
PATTERN OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUE UPPER HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO FALL...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE FRONT INLAND MIDDAY TUE...AND THROUGH
THE SE CRONER OF THE AREA TUE EVENING. WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE BELOW 700MB...WILL CARRY LIKELY OR BETTER POPS ACROSS THE
N...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE S.

A CHANGE OVER TO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR TUE NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWS AND SETTLES
IN OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THERE IS NOT GREAT AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS
AS TO WHEN THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS...NAM AND EC SUGGEST
WED EVENING. WITH COOL AIR ALOFT MOVING IN COUPLED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING BEST INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY WED. WILL
CARRY HIGHEST POPS FOR THE SHOWERY AIR MASS WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N
PART OF THE AREA WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEPEST INSTABILITY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS LATER WED NIGHT INTO THU AS
INSTABILITY DECREASE SOME IN RESPONSE TO COOLING OF LOWER LEVELS.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL NEXT FEW DAYS...EVEN COOLING
A FEW DEGREES WED AND THU BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN
NORMAL IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TODAY GIVEN SOME KEY DIVERGENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NW ON FRIDAY.
DETERMINISTIC 12Z RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SLOW THE PROGRESS OF
THE UPPER TROUGH..AND HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASINGLY PROMINENT...WITH
THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN OREGON THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO SUPPORTS THIS
SOLUTION...BUT A NON TRIVIAL NUMBER OF MEMBERS SEEM TO BE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS AND SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS UNDER WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. FOR THIS REASON...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AND WARMER WITH MAX
TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR NOW...BUT IF
THE ECMWF TREND IS CORRECT...SUNDAY MAY BE A COOLER AND PERHAPS
SHOWERY DAY.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...THE WARM FRONT HAS HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE AVIATION
WEATHER AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
NORTH COAST WHERE CIGS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE COAST WILL LIKELY
SEE IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL
AS GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KT. THE COAST SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
MID MORNING. EXPECT INLAND AREAS TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE
MORNING. TJ

&&

.MARINE...COASTAL OBSERVATIONS AND BAR REPORTS SUGGESTS THAT THE
SOUTH WINDS ARE EASING BELOW 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL END THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 3 PM. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE HIGHER
GUSTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OR CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY. SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH 7 TO 8 FT HEIGHTS AT 10 TO 11 SECONDS. A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA...JUST OFFSHORE OF YAKUTAT IS GENERATING A
NORTHERLY FETCH THAT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF 10 FT SWELL TO
THE OREGON WATERS WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NE PACIFIC WED NIGHT
AND THU AS A THERMAL LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN OF NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PREVENT A TIGHT GRADIENT AND
EXPECT BELOW ADVISORY WINDS THU AND FRI. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS EVENING
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
    OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 AM
     TO 9 AM PDT TUESDAY.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 312051
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DIRECT A WARM
AND DRY AIR MASS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING BAKER COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT ARE BOTH MARGINAL...BUT
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN BAKER COUNTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.  AXIS OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH.  THIS TROUGH SLOWLY OPENS UP
AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATED A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO BAKER COUNTY OREGON
AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO.  FRONT SEEMS TO STALL
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BUT AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST.  CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS LOW BUT
THINKING IS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE 60S.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.  KMYL AND
VICINITY INCREASING SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO
WILDFIRE SMOKE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 312051
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DIRECT A WARM
AND DRY AIR MASS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING BAKER COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT ARE BOTH MARGINAL...BUT
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN BAKER COUNTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.  AXIS OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH.  THIS TROUGH SLOWLY OPENS UP
AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATED A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO BAKER COUNTY OREGON
AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO.  FRONT SEEMS TO STALL
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BUT AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST.  CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS LOW BUT
THINKING IS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE 60S.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.  KMYL AND
VICINITY INCREASING SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO
WILDFIRE SMOKE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 312051
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DIRECT A WARM
AND DRY AIR MASS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING BAKER COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT ARE BOTH MARGINAL...BUT
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN BAKER COUNTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.  AXIS OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH.  THIS TROUGH SLOWLY OPENS UP
AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATED A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO BAKER COUNTY OREGON
AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO.  FRONT SEEMS TO STALL
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BUT AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST.  CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS LOW BUT
THINKING IS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE 60S.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.  KMYL AND
VICINITY INCREASING SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO
WILDFIRE SMOKE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 312051
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DIRECT A WARM
AND DRY AIR MASS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING BAKER COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT ARE BOTH MARGINAL...BUT
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN BAKER COUNTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.  AXIS OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH.  THIS TROUGH SLOWLY OPENS UP
AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATED A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO BAKER COUNTY OREGON
AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO.  FRONT SEEMS TO STALL
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BUT AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST.  CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS LOW BUT
THINKING IS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE 60S.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.  KMYL AND
VICINITY INCREASING SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO
WILDFIRE SMOKE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 312051
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DIRECT A WARM
AND DRY AIR MASS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING BAKER COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT ARE BOTH MARGINAL...BUT
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN BAKER COUNTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.  AXIS OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH.  THIS TROUGH SLOWLY OPENS UP
AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATED A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO BAKER COUNTY OREGON
AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO.  FRONT SEEMS TO STALL
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BUT AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST.  CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS LOW BUT
THINKING IS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE 60S.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.  KMYL AND
VICINITY INCREASING SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO
WILDFIRE SMOKE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 312051
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DIRECT A WARM
AND DRY AIR MASS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING BAKER COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT ARE BOTH MARGINAL...BUT
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN BAKER COUNTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.  AXIS OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH.  THIS TROUGH SLOWLY OPENS UP
AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATED A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO BAKER COUNTY OREGON
AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO.  FRONT SEEMS TO STALL
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BUT AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST.  CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS LOW BUT
THINKING IS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE 60S.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.  KMYL AND
VICINITY INCREASING SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO
WILDFIRE SMOKE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS66 KPDT 311734 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. BROAD
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A WESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES BUT OTHERWISE
DRY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER TODAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. VFR TO PREVAIL WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL CLDS ACROSS
MAINLY WA TAF SITES.  WIND OCNL G20 TIL 05Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, PERHAPS MAKING IT
DOWN TO ELLENSBURG AT TIMES. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LOW WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND DEEPENING THE
TROUGH SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND
BRING THE LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE OREGON CASCADES AS WELL ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL SEND A WAVE ASHORE AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
WALLOWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM IN
AND NEAR THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN DRY. ON WEDNESDAY THE WAVE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THOUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL REMAIN DRY.
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S TODAY AND TUESDAY BUT
WITH THE TROUGH MOVING ASHORE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY. PERRY

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH LINGERING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY WILL BE IN
BETWEEN STORMS SYSTEMS SO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER FRIDAY THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF CLOSES A LOW OFF OVER THE REGION WHILE THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT RAINS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN OREGON. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE DRY. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL IT BECOMES A BIT MORE CLEAR ON
WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE ON THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY IT SHOULD BE DRYING
OUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND SNOW LEVELS 6-7 THOUSAND FEET. IT WILL WARM UP A BIT
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 78

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS AT AROUND 20000
FEET AGL. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRATOCUMULUS AT 6-8K FEET BUT NOT
EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO PRODUCE A CEILING. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
WESTERLY AT 7-12 KT AFTER 18Z BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN AFTER
06Z. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  52  79  55 /   0   0  10  10
ALW  79  59  80  60 /   0   0  10  10
PSC  81  58  83  57 /  10   0  10  10
YKM  75  51  75  51 /  10  10  10  20
HRI  80  55  81  56 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  75  53  77  50 /  10  10  20  20
RDM  78  42  78  46 /   0   0   0  20
LGD  78  48  82  48 /  10   0   0  10
GCD  82  46  85  48 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  79  59  80  60 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/79/79



000
FXUS66 KPDT 311734 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. BROAD
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A WESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES BUT OTHERWISE
DRY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER TODAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. VFR TO PREVAIL WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL CLDS ACROSS
MAINLY WA TAF SITES.  WIND OCNL G20 TIL 05Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, PERHAPS MAKING IT
DOWN TO ELLENSBURG AT TIMES. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LOW WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND DEEPENING THE
TROUGH SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND
BRING THE LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE OREGON CASCADES AS WELL ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL SEND A WAVE ASHORE AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
WALLOWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM IN
AND NEAR THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN DRY. ON WEDNESDAY THE WAVE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THOUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL REMAIN DRY.
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S TODAY AND TUESDAY BUT
WITH THE TROUGH MOVING ASHORE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY. PERRY

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH LINGERING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY WILL BE IN
BETWEEN STORMS SYSTEMS SO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER FRIDAY THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF CLOSES A LOW OFF OVER THE REGION WHILE THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT RAINS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN OREGON. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE DRY. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL IT BECOMES A BIT MORE CLEAR ON
WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE ON THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY IT SHOULD BE DRYING
OUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND SNOW LEVELS 6-7 THOUSAND FEET. IT WILL WARM UP A BIT
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 78

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS AT AROUND 20000
FEET AGL. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRATOCUMULUS AT 6-8K FEET BUT NOT
EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO PRODUCE A CEILING. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
WESTERLY AT 7-12 KT AFTER 18Z BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN AFTER
06Z. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  52  79  55 /   0   0  10  10
ALW  79  59  80  60 /   0   0  10  10
PSC  81  58  83  57 /  10   0  10  10
YKM  75  51  75  51 /  10  10  10  20
HRI  80  55  81  56 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  75  53  77  50 /  10  10  20  20
RDM  78  42  78  46 /   0   0   0  20
LGD  78  48  82  48 /  10   0   0  10
GCD  82  46  85  48 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  79  59  80  60 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/79/79



000
FXUS66 KPDT 311734 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. BROAD
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A WESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES BUT OTHERWISE
DRY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER TODAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. VFR TO PREVAIL WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL CLDS ACROSS
MAINLY WA TAF SITES.  WIND OCNL G20 TIL 05Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, PERHAPS MAKING IT
DOWN TO ELLENSBURG AT TIMES. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LOW WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND DEEPENING THE
TROUGH SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND
BRING THE LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE OREGON CASCADES AS WELL ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL SEND A WAVE ASHORE AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
WALLOWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM IN
AND NEAR THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN DRY. ON WEDNESDAY THE WAVE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THOUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL REMAIN DRY.
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S TODAY AND TUESDAY BUT
WITH THE TROUGH MOVING ASHORE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY. PERRY

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH LINGERING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY WILL BE IN
BETWEEN STORMS SYSTEMS SO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER FRIDAY THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF CLOSES A LOW OFF OVER THE REGION WHILE THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT RAINS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN OREGON. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE DRY. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL IT BECOMES A BIT MORE CLEAR ON
WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE ON THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY IT SHOULD BE DRYING
OUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND SNOW LEVELS 6-7 THOUSAND FEET. IT WILL WARM UP A BIT
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 78

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS AT AROUND 20000
FEET AGL. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRATOCUMULUS AT 6-8K FEET BUT NOT
EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO PRODUCE A CEILING. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
WESTERLY AT 7-12 KT AFTER 18Z BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN AFTER
06Z. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  52  79  55 /   0   0  10  10
ALW  79  59  80  60 /   0   0  10  10
PSC  81  58  83  57 /  10   0  10  10
YKM  75  51  75  51 /  10  10  10  20
HRI  80  55  81  56 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  75  53  77  50 /  10  10  20  20
RDM  78  42  78  46 /   0   0   0  20
LGD  78  48  82  48 /  10   0   0  10
GCD  82  46  85  48 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  79  59  80  60 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/79/79



000
FXUS66 KPDT 311734 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. BROAD
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A WESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES BUT OTHERWISE
DRY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER TODAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. VFR TO PREVAIL WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL CLDS ACROSS
MAINLY WA TAF SITES.  WIND OCNL G20 TIL 05Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, PERHAPS MAKING IT
DOWN TO ELLENSBURG AT TIMES. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LOW WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND DEEPENING THE
TROUGH SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND
BRING THE LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE OREGON CASCADES AS WELL ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL SEND A WAVE ASHORE AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
WALLOWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM IN
AND NEAR THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN DRY. ON WEDNESDAY THE WAVE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THOUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL REMAIN DRY.
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S TODAY AND TUESDAY BUT
WITH THE TROUGH MOVING ASHORE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY. PERRY

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH LINGERING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY WILL BE IN
BETWEEN STORMS SYSTEMS SO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER FRIDAY THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF CLOSES A LOW OFF OVER THE REGION WHILE THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT RAINS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN OREGON. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE DRY. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL IT BECOMES A BIT MORE CLEAR ON
WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE ON THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY IT SHOULD BE DRYING
OUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND SNOW LEVELS 6-7 THOUSAND FEET. IT WILL WARM UP A BIT
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 78

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS AT AROUND 20000
FEET AGL. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRATOCUMULUS AT 6-8K FEET BUT NOT
EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO PRODUCE A CEILING. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
WESTERLY AT 7-12 KT AFTER 18Z BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN AFTER
06Z. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  52  79  55 /   0   0  10  10
ALW  79  59  80  60 /   0   0  10  10
PSC  81  58  83  57 /  10   0  10  10
YKM  75  51  75  51 /  10  10  10  20
HRI  80  55  81  56 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  75  53  77  50 /  10  10  20  20
RDM  78  42  78  46 /   0   0   0  20
LGD  78  48  82  48 /  10   0   0  10
GCD  82  46  85  48 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  79  59  80  60 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/79/79



000
FXUS66 KPQR 311608 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
906 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF A
TILLAMOOK TO MT HOOD LINE TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON TUE...
THEN A SHOWERY AIR MASS FOR WED THROUGH FRI AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN RAIN OVER
WESTERN WA THIS MORNING EXTENDING S INTO EXTREME NW OREGON...WHERE
THE RAIN HAS BEEN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. RAIN WAS OCCURRING IN AN AREA
OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...TO THE N OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDED
WSW TO ENE ACROSS OREGON. MODELS SHOWED THIS PATTERN UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE MUCH TODAY...SO WILL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND TAPER POPS OFF QUICKLY TO THE SE.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...FRONT WILL STALL OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN LIFT BACK INTO WASHINGTON STATE. AS
SUCH...RAIN THREAT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD. BUT WILL KEEP QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDS OVER REGION TONIGHT.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TUE. ONCE AGAIN...
WILL CLOUDS INCREASE TUE AM...WITH RAIN THREAT INCREASING OVER REGION
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING BETTER THREAT OF
RAIN...BUT AGAIN MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL BE ON THE COAST AND INLAND
AREAS TO NORTH OF SALEM. ONCE THAT FRONT PASSES LATE TUE
AFTERNOON...AIR MASS WILL COOL...WITH SHOWERY WEATHER ON TAP FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED. SNOW LEVELS ALSO DROP DOWN TO NEAR 6000 FT...BUT ONLY
EXPECTING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

MODELS ALL AGREE ON COOL SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUE ON WED. MANY AREAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WED...EVEN
INLAND. TO EARLY TO TELL YET...BUT WITH COOL AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
AND DECENT INSTABILITY...COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL. SEEMS FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER WILL FEEL LIKELY EARLY OCTOBER.   /QUINTON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND TRIES TO SLIDE
EASTWARD...THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS A FEW
SHORTWAVES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY SLOW THE PROGRESS AS
THE TROUGH SLIDES A BIT SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED COOL...AND
AT TIMES SHOWERY...CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE CASCADES. HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND FOR
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER...PERHAPS BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
SUNDAY.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS INLAND THIS MORNING WITH LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS FOR THE COAST. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS FOR THE COAST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WARM FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.
EXPECT LOCALIZED AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS INLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MANLY N OF KHIO. THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ALONG THE N OR AND S WA COASTS BETWEEN 16Z
AND 20Z. S WINDS IN GENERAL WILL BECOME SW THIS EVENING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. S
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KT ALONG THE COAST TUE 9 TO 15Z.S
WINDS WILL RETURN INLAND AROUND 9 Z TO THE NORTH AND 13 TO 14Z
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AS THE FRONT DROPS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TUE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE
MORNING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TUE
NIGHT. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK WARM FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND
WILL GENERATE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT GUSTS AHEAD OF AN WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OR CONSISTENT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH 7 TO 8 FT
HEIGHTS AND 10 TO 11 SECOND PERIODS. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA...JUST OFFSHORE OF YAKUTAT IS GENERATING A NORTHERLY
FETCH THAT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF 10 FT SWELL TO THE OREGON
WATERS WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NE PACIFIC WED NIGHT
AND THU AS A THERMAL LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN OF NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PREVENT A TIGHT GRADIENT AND
EXPECT BELOW ADVISORY WINDS THU AND FRI. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM PDT
     THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 AM TO
     9 AM PDT TUESDAY.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 311608 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
906 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF A
TILLAMOOK TO MT HOOD LINE TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON TUE...
THEN A SHOWERY AIR MASS FOR WED THROUGH FRI AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN RAIN OVER
WESTERN WA THIS MORNING EXTENDING S INTO EXTREME NW OREGON...WHERE
THE RAIN HAS BEEN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. RAIN WAS OCCURRING IN AN AREA
OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...TO THE N OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDED
WSW TO ENE ACROSS OREGON. MODELS SHOWED THIS PATTERN UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE MUCH TODAY...SO WILL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND TAPER POPS OFF QUICKLY TO THE SE.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...FRONT WILL STALL OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN LIFT BACK INTO WASHINGTON STATE. AS
SUCH...RAIN THREAT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD. BUT WILL KEEP QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDS OVER REGION TONIGHT.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TUE. ONCE AGAIN...
WILL CLOUDS INCREASE TUE AM...WITH RAIN THREAT INCREASING OVER REGION
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING BETTER THREAT OF
RAIN...BUT AGAIN MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL BE ON THE COAST AND INLAND
AREAS TO NORTH OF SALEM. ONCE THAT FRONT PASSES LATE TUE
AFTERNOON...AIR MASS WILL COOL...WITH SHOWERY WEATHER ON TAP FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED. SNOW LEVELS ALSO DROP DOWN TO NEAR 6000 FT...BUT ONLY
EXPECTING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

MODELS ALL AGREE ON COOL SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUE ON WED. MANY AREAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WED...EVEN
INLAND. TO EARLY TO TELL YET...BUT WITH COOL AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
AND DECENT INSTABILITY...COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL. SEEMS FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER WILL FEEL LIKELY EARLY OCTOBER.   /QUINTON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND TRIES TO SLIDE
EASTWARD...THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS A FEW
SHORTWAVES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY SLOW THE PROGRESS AS
THE TROUGH SLIDES A BIT SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED COOL...AND
AT TIMES SHOWERY...CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE CASCADES. HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND FOR
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER...PERHAPS BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
SUNDAY.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS INLAND THIS MORNING WITH LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS FOR THE COAST. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS FOR THE COAST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WARM FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.
EXPECT LOCALIZED AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS INLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MANLY N OF KHIO. THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ALONG THE N OR AND S WA COASTS BETWEEN 16Z
AND 20Z. S WINDS IN GENERAL WILL BECOME SW THIS EVENING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. S
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KT ALONG THE COAST TUE 9 TO 15Z.S
WINDS WILL RETURN INLAND AROUND 9 Z TO THE NORTH AND 13 TO 14Z
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AS THE FRONT DROPS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TUE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE
MORNING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TUE
NIGHT. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK WARM FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND
WILL GENERATE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT GUSTS AHEAD OF AN WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OR CONSISTENT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH 7 TO 8 FT
HEIGHTS AND 10 TO 11 SECOND PERIODS. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA...JUST OFFSHORE OF YAKUTAT IS GENERATING A NORTHERLY
FETCH THAT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF 10 FT SWELL TO THE OREGON
WATERS WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NE PACIFIC WED NIGHT
AND THU AS A THERMAL LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN OF NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PREVENT A TIGHT GRADIENT AND
EXPECT BELOW ADVISORY WINDS THU AND FRI. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM PDT
     THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 AM TO
     9 AM PDT TUESDAY.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 311605
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
906 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF A
TILLAMOOK TO MT HOOD LINE TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON TUE...
THEN A SHOWERY AIR MASS FOR WED THROUGH FRI AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN RAIN OVER
WESTERN WA THIS MORNING EXTENDING S INTO EXTREME NW OREGON...WHERE
THE RAIN HAS BEEN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. RAIN WAS OCCURRING IN AN AREA
OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...TO THE N OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDED
WSW TO ENE ACROSS OREGON. MODELS SHOWED THIS PATTERN UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE MUCH TODAY...SO WILL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND TAPER POPS OFF QUICKLY TO THE SE.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...FRONT WILL STALL OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN LIFT BACK INTO WASHINGTON STATE. AS
SUCH...RAIN THREAT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD. BUT WILL KEEP QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDS OVER REGION TONIGHT.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TUE. ONCE AGAIN...
WILL CLOUDS INCREASE TUE AM...WITH RAIN THREAT INCREASING OVER REGION
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING BETTER THREAT OF
RAIN...BUT AGAIN MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL BE ON THE COAST AND INLAND
AREAS TO NORTH OF SALEM. ONCE THAT FRONT PASSES LATE TUE
AFTERNOON...AIR MASS WILL COOL...WITH SHOWERY WEATHER ON TAP FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED. SNOW LEVELS ALSO DROP DOWN TO NEAR 6000 FT...BUT ONLY
EXPECTING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

MODELS ALL AGREE ON COOL SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUE ON WED. MANY AREAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WED...EVEN
INLAND. TO EARLY TO TELL YET...BUT WITH COOL AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
AND DECENT INSTABILITY...COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL. SEEMS FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER WILL FEEL LIKELY EARLY OCTOBER.   /QUINTON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND TRIES TO SLIDE
EASTWARD...THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS A FEW
SHORTWAVES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY SLOW THE PROGRESS AS
THE TROUGH SLIDES A BIT SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED COOL...AND
AT TIMES SHOWERY...CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE CASCADES. HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND FOR
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER...PERHAPS BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
SUNDAY.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS INLAND THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS FOR
THE COAST. EXPECT LOCALIZED IFR CIGS FOR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND LOCALIZED AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS INLAND...NORTH OF
HILLSBORO...AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ALONG THE
N OR AND S WA COASTS BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z. S WINDS IN GENERAL WILL
BECOME SW THE EVENING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. S
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KT ALONG THE COAST TUE 9 TO 15Z.S
WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL RETURN INLAND AROUND 9 Z TO THE NORTH AND
13TO 14Z SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH AS THE FRONT DROPS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE
MORNING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TUE
NIGHT. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK WARM FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND
WILL GENERATE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT GUSTS AHEAD OF AN WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OR CONSISTENT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH 7 TO 8 FT
HEIGHTS AND 10 TO 11 SECOND PERIODS. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA...JUST OFFSHORE OF YAKUTAT IS GENERATING A NORTHERLY
FETCH THAT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF 10 FT SWELL TO THE OREGON
WATERS WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NE PACIFIC WED NIGHT
AND THU AS A THERMAL LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN OF NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PREVENT A TIGHT GRADIENT AND
EXPECT BELOW ADVISORY WINDS THU AND FRI. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 AM
     TO 9 AM PDT TUESDAY.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 311605
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
906 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF A
TILLAMOOK TO MT HOOD LINE TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON TUE...
THEN A SHOWERY AIR MASS FOR WED THROUGH FRI AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN RAIN OVER
WESTERN WA THIS MORNING EXTENDING S INTO EXTREME NW OREGON...WHERE
THE RAIN HAS BEEN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. RAIN WAS OCCURRING IN AN AREA
OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...TO THE N OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDED
WSW TO ENE ACROSS OREGON. MODELS SHOWED THIS PATTERN UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE MUCH TODAY...SO WILL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND TAPER POPS OFF QUICKLY TO THE SE.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...FRONT WILL STALL OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN LIFT BACK INTO WASHINGTON STATE. AS
SUCH...RAIN THREAT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD. BUT WILL KEEP QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDS OVER REGION TONIGHT.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TUE. ONCE AGAIN...
WILL CLOUDS INCREASE TUE AM...WITH RAIN THREAT INCREASING OVER REGION
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING BETTER THREAT OF
RAIN...BUT AGAIN MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL BE ON THE COAST AND INLAND
AREAS TO NORTH OF SALEM. ONCE THAT FRONT PASSES LATE TUE
AFTERNOON...AIR MASS WILL COOL...WITH SHOWERY WEATHER ON TAP FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED. SNOW LEVELS ALSO DROP DOWN TO NEAR 6000 FT...BUT ONLY
EXPECTING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

MODELS ALL AGREE ON COOL SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUE ON WED. MANY AREAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WED...EVEN
INLAND. TO EARLY TO TELL YET...BUT WITH COOL AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
AND DECENT INSTABILITY...COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL. SEEMS FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER WILL FEEL LIKELY EARLY OCTOBER.   /QUINTON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND TRIES TO SLIDE
EASTWARD...THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS A FEW
SHORTWAVES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY SLOW THE PROGRESS AS
THE TROUGH SLIDES A BIT SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED COOL...AND
AT TIMES SHOWERY...CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE CASCADES. HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND FOR
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER...PERHAPS BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
SUNDAY.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS INLAND THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS FOR
THE COAST. EXPECT LOCALIZED IFR CIGS FOR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND LOCALIZED AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS INLAND...NORTH OF
HILLSBORO...AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ALONG THE
N OR AND S WA COASTS BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z. S WINDS IN GENERAL WILL
BECOME SW THE EVENING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. S
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KT ALONG THE COAST TUE 9 TO 15Z.S
WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL RETURN INLAND AROUND 9 Z TO THE NORTH AND
13TO 14Z SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH AS THE FRONT DROPS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE
MORNING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TUE
NIGHT. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK WARM FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND
WILL GENERATE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT GUSTS AHEAD OF AN WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OR CONSISTENT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH 7 TO 8 FT
HEIGHTS AND 10 TO 11 SECOND PERIODS. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA...JUST OFFSHORE OF YAKUTAT IS GENERATING A NORTHERLY
FETCH THAT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF 10 FT SWELL TO THE OREGON
WATERS WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NE PACIFIC WED NIGHT
AND THU AS A THERMAL LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN OF NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PREVENT A TIGHT GRADIENT AND
EXPECT BELOW ADVISORY WINDS THU AND FRI. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 AM
     TO 9 AM PDT TUESDAY.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 311605
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
906 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF A
TILLAMOOK TO MT HOOD LINE TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON TUE...
THEN A SHOWERY AIR MASS FOR WED THROUGH FRI AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN RAIN OVER
WESTERN WA THIS MORNING EXTENDING S INTO EXTREME NW OREGON...WHERE
THE RAIN HAS BEEN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. RAIN WAS OCCURRING IN AN AREA
OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...TO THE N OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDED
WSW TO ENE ACROSS OREGON. MODELS SHOWED THIS PATTERN UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE MUCH TODAY...SO WILL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND TAPER POPS OFF QUICKLY TO THE SE.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...FRONT WILL STALL OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN LIFT BACK INTO WASHINGTON STATE. AS
SUCH...RAIN THREAT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD. BUT WILL KEEP QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDS OVER REGION TONIGHT.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TUE. ONCE AGAIN...
WILL CLOUDS INCREASE TUE AM...WITH RAIN THREAT INCREASING OVER REGION
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING BETTER THREAT OF
RAIN...BUT AGAIN MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL BE ON THE COAST AND INLAND
AREAS TO NORTH OF SALEM. ONCE THAT FRONT PASSES LATE TUE
AFTERNOON...AIR MASS WILL COOL...WITH SHOWERY WEATHER ON TAP FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED. SNOW LEVELS ALSO DROP DOWN TO NEAR 6000 FT...BUT ONLY
EXPECTING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

MODELS ALL AGREE ON COOL SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUE ON WED. MANY AREAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WED...EVEN
INLAND. TO EARLY TO TELL YET...BUT WITH COOL AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
AND DECENT INSTABILITY...COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL. SEEMS FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER WILL FEEL LIKELY EARLY OCTOBER.   /QUINTON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND TRIES TO SLIDE
EASTWARD...THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS A FEW
SHORTWAVES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY SLOW THE PROGRESS AS
THE TROUGH SLIDES A BIT SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED COOL...AND
AT TIMES SHOWERY...CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE CASCADES. HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND FOR
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER...PERHAPS BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
SUNDAY.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS INLAND THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS FOR
THE COAST. EXPECT LOCALIZED IFR CIGS FOR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND LOCALIZED AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS INLAND...NORTH OF
HILLSBORO...AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ALONG THE
N OR AND S WA COASTS BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z. S WINDS IN GENERAL WILL
BECOME SW THE EVENING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. S
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KT ALONG THE COAST TUE 9 TO 15Z.S
WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL RETURN INLAND AROUND 9 Z TO THE NORTH AND
13TO 14Z SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH AS THE FRONT DROPS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE
MORNING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TUE
NIGHT. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK WARM FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND
WILL GENERATE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT GUSTS AHEAD OF AN WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OR CONSISTENT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH 7 TO 8 FT
HEIGHTS AND 10 TO 11 SECOND PERIODS. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA...JUST OFFSHORE OF YAKUTAT IS GENERATING A NORTHERLY
FETCH THAT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF 10 FT SWELL TO THE OREGON
WATERS WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NE PACIFIC WED NIGHT
AND THU AS A THERMAL LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN OF NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PREVENT A TIGHT GRADIENT AND
EXPECT BELOW ADVISORY WINDS THU AND FRI. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 AM
     TO 9 AM PDT TUESDAY.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 311605
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
906 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF A
TILLAMOOK TO MT HOOD LINE TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON TUE...
THEN A SHOWERY AIR MASS FOR WED THROUGH FRI AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN RAIN OVER
WESTERN WA THIS MORNING EXTENDING S INTO EXTREME NW OREGON...WHERE
THE RAIN HAS BEEN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. RAIN WAS OCCURRING IN AN AREA
OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...TO THE N OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDED
WSW TO ENE ACROSS OREGON. MODELS SHOWED THIS PATTERN UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE MUCH TODAY...SO WILL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND TAPER POPS OFF QUICKLY TO THE SE.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...FRONT WILL STALL OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN LIFT BACK INTO WASHINGTON STATE. AS
SUCH...RAIN THREAT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD. BUT WILL KEEP QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDS OVER REGION TONIGHT.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TUE. ONCE AGAIN...
WILL CLOUDS INCREASE TUE AM...WITH RAIN THREAT INCREASING OVER REGION
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING BETTER THREAT OF
RAIN...BUT AGAIN MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL BE ON THE COAST AND INLAND
AREAS TO NORTH OF SALEM. ONCE THAT FRONT PASSES LATE TUE
AFTERNOON...AIR MASS WILL COOL...WITH SHOWERY WEATHER ON TAP FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED. SNOW LEVELS ALSO DROP DOWN TO NEAR 6000 FT...BUT ONLY
EXPECTING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

MODELS ALL AGREE ON COOL SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUE ON WED. MANY AREAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WED...EVEN
INLAND. TO EARLY TO TELL YET...BUT WITH COOL AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
AND DECENT INSTABILITY...COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL. SEEMS FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER WILL FEEL LIKELY EARLY OCTOBER.   /QUINTON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND TRIES TO SLIDE
EASTWARD...THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS A FEW
SHORTWAVES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY SLOW THE PROGRESS AS
THE TROUGH SLIDES A BIT SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED COOL...AND
AT TIMES SHOWERY...CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE CASCADES. HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND FOR
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER...PERHAPS BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
SUNDAY.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS INLAND THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS FOR
THE COAST. EXPECT LOCALIZED IFR CIGS FOR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND LOCALIZED AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS INLAND...NORTH OF
HILLSBORO...AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ALONG THE
N OR AND S WA COASTS BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z. S WINDS IN GENERAL WILL
BECOME SW THE EVENING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. S
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KT ALONG THE COAST TUE 9 TO 15Z.S
WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL RETURN INLAND AROUND 9 Z TO THE NORTH AND
13TO 14Z SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH AS THE FRONT DROPS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE
MORNING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TUE
NIGHT. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK WARM FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND
WILL GENERATE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT GUSTS AHEAD OF AN WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OR CONSISTENT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH 7 TO 8 FT
HEIGHTS AND 10 TO 11 SECOND PERIODS. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA...JUST OFFSHORE OF YAKUTAT IS GENERATING A NORTHERLY
FETCH THAT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF 10 FT SWELL TO THE OREGON
WATERS WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NE PACIFIC WED NIGHT
AND THU AS A THERMAL LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN OF NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PREVENT A TIGHT GRADIENT AND
EXPECT BELOW ADVISORY WINDS THU AND FRI. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 AM
     TO 9 AM PDT TUESDAY.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 311547
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
847 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...OTHER THAN SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY, CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS DOMINATE
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH CALM WEATHER IN THE AREA, THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK, SO NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY THIS
MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/12Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
EASTWARD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS
AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS IN STRATUS
WILL RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LOCAL MFR/IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT MONDAY 31 AUGUST 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TODAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE AND SEAS DOMINATED BY A WESTERLY SWELL.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY BRINGING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.  SEAS MAY BECOME STEEP WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES OVER THE WATERS.   EXPECT
CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS MAY
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS OVER THE WATERS. -BPN/CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...31/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW MOVED OUT TO THE
EAST...AND WEAK TO MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST...MOSTLY OVER THE
CASCADES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE SOON.

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

HOWEVER...THE MEDFORD CWA WILL CATCH THE WEAK SOUTHERN END OF
SYSTEMS MOVING ONSHORE. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY
AND IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA BASIN. THE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IT WILL BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND FROM
THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. UPPER KLAMATH COUNTY MAY
GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN TOO. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AROUND TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. THE 31/00Z GFS FINALLY MOVES IT OUT
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE 30/12Z EC IS ABOUT 12 TO 18
HOURS SLOWER. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COOL
WITH INLAND HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS
MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS INTERVAL. THE WETTER EC LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER FORECAST DURING THIS STRETCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...SO WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE UPPED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS MURKIER. IT MAY BE COOL AND SHOWERY
WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND WARMER.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/CC/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 311547
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
847 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...OTHER THAN SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY, CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS DOMINATE
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH CALM WEATHER IN THE AREA, THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK, SO NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY THIS
MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/12Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
EASTWARD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS
AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS IN STRATUS
WILL RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LOCAL MFR/IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT MONDAY 31 AUGUST 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TODAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE AND SEAS DOMINATED BY A WESTERLY SWELL.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY BRINGING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.  SEAS MAY BECOME STEEP WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES OVER THE WATERS.   EXPECT
CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS MAY
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS OVER THE WATERS. -BPN/CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...31/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW MOVED OUT TO THE
EAST...AND WEAK TO MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST...MOSTLY OVER THE
CASCADES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE SOON.

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

HOWEVER...THE MEDFORD CWA WILL CATCH THE WEAK SOUTHERN END OF
SYSTEMS MOVING ONSHORE. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY
AND IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA BASIN. THE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IT WILL BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND FROM
THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. UPPER KLAMATH COUNTY MAY
GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN TOO. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AROUND TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. THE 31/00Z GFS FINALLY MOVES IT OUT
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE 30/12Z EC IS ABOUT 12 TO 18
HOURS SLOWER. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COOL
WITH INLAND HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS
MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS INTERVAL. THE WETTER EC LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER FORECAST DURING THIS STRETCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...SO WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE UPPED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS MURKIER. IT MAY BE COOL AND SHOWERY
WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND WARMER.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/CC/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 311547
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
847 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...OTHER THAN SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY, CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS DOMINATE
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH CALM WEATHER IN THE AREA, THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK, SO NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY THIS
MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/12Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
EASTWARD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS
AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS IN STRATUS
WILL RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LOCAL MFR/IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT MONDAY 31 AUGUST 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TODAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE AND SEAS DOMINATED BY A WESTERLY SWELL.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY BRINGING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.  SEAS MAY BECOME STEEP WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES OVER THE WATERS.   EXPECT
CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS MAY
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS OVER THE WATERS. -BPN/CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...31/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW MOVED OUT TO THE
EAST...AND WEAK TO MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST...MOSTLY OVER THE
CASCADES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE SOON.

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

HOWEVER...THE MEDFORD CWA WILL CATCH THE WEAK SOUTHERN END OF
SYSTEMS MOVING ONSHORE. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY
AND IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA BASIN. THE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IT WILL BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND FROM
THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. UPPER KLAMATH COUNTY MAY
GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN TOO. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AROUND TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. THE 31/00Z GFS FINALLY MOVES IT OUT
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE 30/12Z EC IS ABOUT 12 TO 18
HOURS SLOWER. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COOL
WITH INLAND HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS
MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS INTERVAL. THE WETTER EC LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER FORECAST DURING THIS STRETCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...SO WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE UPPED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS MURKIER. IT MAY BE COOL AND SHOWERY
WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND WARMER.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/CC/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 311547
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
847 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...OTHER THAN SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY, CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS DOMINATE
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH CALM WEATHER IN THE AREA, THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK, SO NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY THIS
MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/12Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
EASTWARD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS
AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS IN STRATUS
WILL RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LOCAL MFR/IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT MONDAY 31 AUGUST 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TODAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE AND SEAS DOMINATED BY A WESTERLY SWELL.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY BRINGING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.  SEAS MAY BECOME STEEP WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES OVER THE WATERS.   EXPECT
CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS MAY
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS OVER THE WATERS. -BPN/CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...31/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW MOVED OUT TO THE
EAST...AND WEAK TO MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST...MOSTLY OVER THE
CASCADES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE SOON.

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

HOWEVER...THE MEDFORD CWA WILL CATCH THE WEAK SOUTHERN END OF
SYSTEMS MOVING ONSHORE. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY
AND IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA BASIN. THE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IT WILL BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND FROM
THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. UPPER KLAMATH COUNTY MAY
GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN TOO. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AROUND TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. THE 31/00Z GFS FINALLY MOVES IT OUT
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE 30/12Z EC IS ABOUT 12 TO 18
HOURS SLOWER. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COOL
WITH INLAND HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS
MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS INTERVAL. THE WETTER EC LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER FORECAST DURING THIS STRETCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...SO WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE UPPED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS MURKIER. IT MAY BE COOL AND SHOWERY
WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND WARMER.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/CC/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 311547
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
847 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...OTHER THAN SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY, CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS DOMINATE
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH CALM WEATHER IN THE AREA, THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK, SO NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY THIS
MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/12Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
EASTWARD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS
AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS IN STRATUS
WILL RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LOCAL MFR/IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT MONDAY 31 AUGUST 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TODAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE AND SEAS DOMINATED BY A WESTERLY SWELL.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY BRINGING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.  SEAS MAY BECOME STEEP WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES OVER THE WATERS.   EXPECT
CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS MAY
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS OVER THE WATERS. -BPN/CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...31/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW MOVED OUT TO THE
EAST...AND WEAK TO MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST...MOSTLY OVER THE
CASCADES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE SOON.

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

HOWEVER...THE MEDFORD CWA WILL CATCH THE WEAK SOUTHERN END OF
SYSTEMS MOVING ONSHORE. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY
AND IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA BASIN. THE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IT WILL BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND FROM
THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. UPPER KLAMATH COUNTY MAY
GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN TOO. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AROUND TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. THE 31/00Z GFS FINALLY MOVES IT OUT
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE 30/12Z EC IS ABOUT 12 TO 18
HOURS SLOWER. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COOL
WITH INLAND HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS
MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS INTERVAL. THE WETTER EC LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER FORECAST DURING THIS STRETCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...SO WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE UPPED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS MURKIER. IT MAY BE COOL AND SHOWERY
WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND WARMER.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/CC/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 311547
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
847 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...OTHER THAN SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY, CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS DOMINATE
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH CALM WEATHER IN THE AREA, THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK, SO NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY THIS
MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/12Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
EASTWARD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS
AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS IN STRATUS
WILL RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LOCAL MFR/IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT MONDAY 31 AUGUST 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TODAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE AND SEAS DOMINATED BY A WESTERLY SWELL.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY BRINGING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.  SEAS MAY BECOME STEEP WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES OVER THE WATERS.   EXPECT
CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS MAY
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS OVER THE WATERS. -BPN/CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...31/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW MOVED OUT TO THE
EAST...AND WEAK TO MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST...MOSTLY OVER THE
CASCADES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE SOON.

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

HOWEVER...THE MEDFORD CWA WILL CATCH THE WEAK SOUTHERN END OF
SYSTEMS MOVING ONSHORE. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY
AND IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA BASIN. THE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IT WILL BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND FROM
THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. UPPER KLAMATH COUNTY MAY
GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN TOO. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AROUND TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. THE 31/00Z GFS FINALLY MOVES IT OUT
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE 30/12Z EC IS ABOUT 12 TO 18
HOURS SLOWER. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COOL
WITH INLAND HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS
MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS INTERVAL. THE WETTER EC LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER FORECAST DURING THIS STRETCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...SO WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE UPPED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS MURKIER. IT MAY BE COOL AND SHOWERY
WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND WARMER.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/CC/JRS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 311530
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
930 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY ZONAL FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
WARMER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN SE OREGON WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES WARMER. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER VISIBILITIES AROUND
MCCALL DUE TO WILDFIRES TO THE NORTH. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.  KMYL AND VICINITY
INCREASE IN SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO WILDFIRE
SMOKE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND NO
RAIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHEN HIGHS REBOUND TO 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. PATCHY SMOKE IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO /MAINLY
COUNCIL NORTHWARD/ FROM ONGOING FIRES ACROSS THE NW AND NEW
STARTS IN CENTRAL IDAHO...DUE TO STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WITH
SATURDAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIFFER IN THE
DETAILS BUT AGREE IN GENERAL ON DEEPENING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SOUTHWARD OVER THE COAST AND BRINGING IT SLOWLY INLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MODEL DIFFER ON HOW LONG THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA...BUT
BY MONDAY EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE
CHANGE ON SATURDAY...THEN GRADUAL WARMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 311530
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
930 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY ZONAL FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
WARMER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN SE OREGON WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES WARMER. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER VISIBILITIES AROUND
MCCALL DUE TO WILDFIRES TO THE NORTH. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.  KMYL AND VICINITY
INCREASE IN SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO WILDFIRE
SMOKE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND NO
RAIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHEN HIGHS REBOUND TO 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. PATCHY SMOKE IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO /MAINLY
COUNCIL NORTHWARD/ FROM ONGOING FIRES ACROSS THE NW AND NEW
STARTS IN CENTRAL IDAHO...DUE TO STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WITH
SATURDAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIFFER IN THE
DETAILS BUT AGREE IN GENERAL ON DEEPENING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SOUTHWARD OVER THE COAST AND BRINGING IT SLOWLY INLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MODEL DIFFER ON HOW LONG THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA...BUT
BY MONDAY EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE
CHANGE ON SATURDAY...THEN GRADUAL WARMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 311530
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
930 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY ZONAL FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
WARMER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN SE OREGON WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES WARMER. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER VISIBILITIES AROUND
MCCALL DUE TO WILDFIRES TO THE NORTH. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.  KMYL AND VICINITY
INCREASE IN SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO WILDFIRE
SMOKE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND NO
RAIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHEN HIGHS REBOUND TO 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. PATCHY SMOKE IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO /MAINLY
COUNCIL NORTHWARD/ FROM ONGOING FIRES ACROSS THE NW AND NEW
STARTS IN CENTRAL IDAHO...DUE TO STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WITH
SATURDAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIFFER IN THE
DETAILS BUT AGREE IN GENERAL ON DEEPENING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SOUTHWARD OVER THE COAST AND BRINGING IT SLOWLY INLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MODEL DIFFER ON HOW LONG THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA...BUT
BY MONDAY EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE
CHANGE ON SATURDAY...THEN GRADUAL WARMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 311530
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
930 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY ZONAL FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
WARMER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN SE OREGON WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES WARMER. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER VISIBILITIES AROUND
MCCALL DUE TO WILDFIRES TO THE NORTH. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.  KMYL AND VICINITY
INCREASE IN SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO WILDFIRE
SMOKE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND NO
RAIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHEN HIGHS REBOUND TO 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. PATCHY SMOKE IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO /MAINLY
COUNCIL NORTHWARD/ FROM ONGOING FIRES ACROSS THE NW AND NEW
STARTS IN CENTRAL IDAHO...DUE TO STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WITH
SATURDAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIFFER IN THE
DETAILS BUT AGREE IN GENERAL ON DEEPENING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SOUTHWARD OVER THE COAST AND BRINGING IT SLOWLY INLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MODEL DIFFER ON HOW LONG THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA...BUT
BY MONDAY EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE
CHANGE ON SATURDAY...THEN GRADUAL WARMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS66 KPDT 311506
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
806 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. BROAD
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A WESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES BUT OTHERWISE
DRY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER TODAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, PERHAPS MAKING IT
DOWN TO ELLENSBURG AT TIMES. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LOW WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND DEEPENING THE
TROUGH SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND
BRING THE LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE OREGON CASCADES AS WELL ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL SEND A WAVE ASHORE AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
WALLOWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM IN
AND NEAR THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN DRY. ON WEDNESDAY THE WAVE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THOUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL REMAIN DRY.
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S TODAY AND TUESDAY BUT
WITH THE TROUGH MOVING ASHORE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY. PERRY

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH LINGERING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY WILL BE IN
BETWEEN STORMS SYSTEMS SO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER FRIDAY THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF CLOSES A LOW OFF OVER THE REGION WHILE THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT RAINS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN OREGON. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE DRY. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL IT BECOMES A BIT MORE CLEAR ON
WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE ON THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY IT SHOULD BE DRYING
OUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND SNOW LEVELS 6-7 THOUSAND FEET. IT WILL WARM UP A BIT
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 78

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS AT AROUND 20000
FEET AGL. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRATOCUMULUS AT 6-8K FEET BUT NOT
EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO PRODUCE A CEILING. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
WESTERLY AT 7-12 KT AFTER 18Z BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN AFTER
06Z. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  52  79  55 /   0   0  10  10
ALW  79  59  80  60 /   0   0  10  10
PSC  81  58  83  57 /  10   0  10  10
YKM  75  51  75  51 /  10  10  10  20
HRI  80  55  81  56 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  75  53  77  50 /  10  10  20  20
RDM  78  42  78  46 /   0   0   0  20
LGD  78  48  82  48 /  10   0   0  10
GCD  82  46  85  48 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  79  59  80  60 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/79/79




000
FXUS66 KMFR 311220
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
520 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...31/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW MOVED OUT TO THE
EAST...AND WEAK TO MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST...MOSTLY OVER THE
CASCADES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE SOON.

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

HOWEVER...THE MEDFORD CWA WILL CATCH THE WEAK SOUTHERN END OF
SYSTEMS MOVING ONSHORE. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY
AND IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA BASIN. THE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IT WILL BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND FROM
THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. UPPER KLAMATH COUNTY MAY
GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN TOO. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AROUND TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. THE 31/00Z GFS FINALLY MOVES IT OUT
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE 30/12Z EC IS ABOUT 12 TO 18
HOURS SLOWER. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COOL
WITH INLAND HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS
MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS INTERVAL. THE WETTER EC LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER FORECAST DURING THIS STRETCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...SO WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE UPPED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS MURKIER. IT MAY BE COOL AND SHOWERY
WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/12Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
EASTWARD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS
AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS IN STRATUS
WILL RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LOCAL MFR/IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT MONDAY 31 AUGUST 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATING OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. TODAY
INTO TUESDAY, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH SEAS
DOMINATED BY A WESTERLY SWELL.  ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE
WATERS LATE TUESDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.  SEAS MAY
BECOME STEEP WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST SWELL
INCREASES OVER THE WATERS.   EXPECT CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS MAY INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP
SEAS OVER THE WATERS. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/02



000
FXUS66 KMFR 311220
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
520 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...31/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW MOVED OUT TO THE
EAST...AND WEAK TO MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST...MOSTLY OVER THE
CASCADES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE SOON.

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

HOWEVER...THE MEDFORD CWA WILL CATCH THE WEAK SOUTHERN END OF
SYSTEMS MOVING ONSHORE. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY
AND IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA BASIN. THE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IT WILL BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND FROM
THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. UPPER KLAMATH COUNTY MAY
GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN TOO. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AROUND TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. THE 31/00Z GFS FINALLY MOVES IT OUT
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE 30/12Z EC IS ABOUT 12 TO 18
HOURS SLOWER. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COOL
WITH INLAND HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS
MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS INTERVAL. THE WETTER EC LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER FORECAST DURING THIS STRETCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...SO WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE UPPED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS MURKIER. IT MAY BE COOL AND SHOWERY
WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/12Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
EASTWARD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS
AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS IN STRATUS
WILL RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LOCAL MFR/IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT MONDAY 31 AUGUST 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATING OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. TODAY
INTO TUESDAY, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH SEAS
DOMINATED BY A WESTERLY SWELL.  ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE
WATERS LATE TUESDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.  SEAS MAY
BECOME STEEP WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST SWELL
INCREASES OVER THE WATERS.   EXPECT CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS MAY INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP
SEAS OVER THE WATERS. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/02




000
FXUS66 KMFR 311220
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
520 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...31/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW MOVED OUT TO THE
EAST...AND WEAK TO MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST...MOSTLY OVER THE
CASCADES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE SOON.

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

HOWEVER...THE MEDFORD CWA WILL CATCH THE WEAK SOUTHERN END OF
SYSTEMS MOVING ONSHORE. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY
AND IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA BASIN. THE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IT WILL BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND FROM
THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. UPPER KLAMATH COUNTY MAY
GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN TOO. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AROUND TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. THE 31/00Z GFS FINALLY MOVES IT OUT
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE 30/12Z EC IS ABOUT 12 TO 18
HOURS SLOWER. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COOL
WITH INLAND HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS
MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS INTERVAL. THE WETTER EC LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER FORECAST DURING THIS STRETCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...SO WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE UPPED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS MURKIER. IT MAY BE COOL AND SHOWERY
WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/12Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
EASTWARD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS
AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS IN STRATUS
WILL RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LOCAL MFR/IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT MONDAY 31 AUGUST 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATING OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. TODAY
INTO TUESDAY, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH SEAS
DOMINATED BY A WESTERLY SWELL.  ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE
WATERS LATE TUESDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.  SEAS MAY
BECOME STEEP WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST SWELL
INCREASES OVER THE WATERS.   EXPECT CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS MAY INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP
SEAS OVER THE WATERS. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/02




000
FXUS66 KMFR 311220
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
520 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...31/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW MOVED OUT TO THE
EAST...AND WEAK TO MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST...MOSTLY OVER THE
CASCADES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE SOON.

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

HOWEVER...THE MEDFORD CWA WILL CATCH THE WEAK SOUTHERN END OF
SYSTEMS MOVING ONSHORE. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY
AND IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA BASIN. THE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IT WILL BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND FROM
THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. UPPER KLAMATH COUNTY MAY
GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN TOO. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AROUND TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. THE 31/00Z GFS FINALLY MOVES IT OUT
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE 30/12Z EC IS ABOUT 12 TO 18
HOURS SLOWER. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COOL
WITH INLAND HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS
MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS INTERVAL. THE WETTER EC LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER FORECAST DURING THIS STRETCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...SO WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE UPPED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS MURKIER. IT MAY BE COOL AND SHOWERY
WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/12Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
EASTWARD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS
AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS IN STRATUS
WILL RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LOCAL MFR/IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT MONDAY 31 AUGUST 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATING OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. TODAY
INTO TUESDAY, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH SEAS
DOMINATED BY A WESTERLY SWELL.  ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE
WATERS LATE TUESDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.  SEAS MAY
BECOME STEEP WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST SWELL
INCREASES OVER THE WATERS.   EXPECT CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS MAY INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP
SEAS OVER THE WATERS. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/02



000
FXUS66 KPQR 311007
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
304 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF A
TILLAMOOK TO MT HOOD LINE TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON TUE...
THEN A SHOWERY AIR MASS FOR WED THROUGH FRI. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH OCCASIONAL FRONTS INTO THE PAC NW OVER
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT MAIN THRUST OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WESTERN WASHINGTON. NEXT FRONT NOW APPROACHING
FROM THE NW...AND IS PUSHING ACROSS VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS FRONT WILL
PUSH OCCASIONAL RAIN INTO SW WASHINGTON AND THE N OREGON COAST LATER
THIS AM...WITH THE RAIN SPREADING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THREAT OF
RAIN BE HARD PRESSED TO MOVE SOUTH OF A NEWPORT TO SALEM LINE...SO
WILL KEEP ONLY MINOR THREAT OF RAIN...IF ANY...IN THOSE AREAS. THIS
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN LIFT BACK INTO
WASHINGTON STATE. AS SUCH...RAIN THREAT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD. BUT
WILL KEEP QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS OVER REGION TONIGHT.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TUE. ONCE AGAIN...
WILL CLOUDS INCREASE TUE AM...WITH RAIN THREAT INCREASING OVER REGION
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING BETTER THREAT OF
RAIN...BUT AGAIN MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL BE ON THE COAST AND INLAND
AREAS TO NORTH OF SALEM. ONCE THAT FRONT PASSES LATE TUE
AFTERNOON...AIR MASS WILL COOL...WITH SHOWERY WEATHER ON TAP FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED. SNOW LEVELS ALSO DROP DOWN TO NEAR 6000 FT...BUT ONLY
EXPECTING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

MODELS ALL AGREE ON COOL SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUE ON WED. MANY AREAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WED...EVEN
INLAND. TO EARLY TO TELL YET...BUT WITH COOL AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
AND DECENT INSTABILITY...COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL. SEEMS FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER WILL FEEL LIKELY EARLY OCTOBER.   /QUINTON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
TRIES TO SLIDE EASTWARD...THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS A FEW SHORTWAVES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY SLOW
THE PROGRESS AS THE TROUGH SLIDES A BIT SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED COOL...AND AT TIMES SHOWERY...CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE CASCADES. HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE A BIT FOR
THE WEEKEND FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER...PERHAPS BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR SUNDAY.   CULLEN
&&


.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE BOARD AT THIS TIME. COLD FRONT HAS
SOMEWHAT STALLED NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A FAIRLY STEADY MID LEVEL
DECK IN PLACE AROUND FL008 TO FL100. IT IS LOWERING A BIT OVER THE
NORTH COAST WITH KAST CIGS AT 050. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE APPEARS
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION WITH MODELS
INDICATING CLOUDS MUCH LOWER. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
AROUND MID-DAY AND BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHERN AREAS. MAY SEE
CIGS LOWER WITH THAT FRONTAL CROSSING BUT SEE MIXED MESSAGES AS
THE GFS KEEPS MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST AND VFR INLAND WHILE THE NAM
BRINGS IFR AT THE COAST AND MVFR INLAND. GIVEN THIS IS A WARM
FRONT AND THE NAM`S TENDENCY TO OVERREACT WITH WARM
PROCESSES...WILL FOLLOW THE GFS AS A FIRST GUESS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH A WEAK
COASTAL JET DEVELOPING. CONTINUE TO EXPECT WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25
KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH THE PEAK COASTAL JET WINDS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING.

SEAS ARE REMAINING SOMEWHAT STEEP AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
IS BRINGING A MODERATELY LONG FETCH AND ASSOCIATED WEST TO
NORTHWEST SWELL. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WILL SEE SEAS HOVER JUST SHY OF THE 10 FT HAZARDOUS
SEAS ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL PERHAPS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 11
SECOND PERIOD SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

THE PARENT UPPER LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL SHIFT
EAST WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW NORTHEAST PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. A
THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS UP THE CALIFORNIA COAST BUT DOESN`T MAKE
MUCH PROGRESS NORTH UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY. WILL SEE NORTHERLY
WINDS GRADUALLY RAMP UP THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY PRODUCING
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS FOR THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM TODAY FOR THE
 COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
 UNTIL 9 AM TODAY...AND AGAIN 5 PM TO 10 PM TODAY.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 311007
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
304 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF A
TILLAMOOK TO MT HOOD LINE TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON TUE...
THEN A SHOWERY AIR MASS FOR WED THROUGH FRI. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH OCCASIONAL FRONTS INTO THE PAC NW OVER
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT MAIN THRUST OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WESTERN WASHINGTON. NEXT FRONT NOW APPROACHING
FROM THE NW...AND IS PUSHING ACROSS VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS FRONT WILL
PUSH OCCASIONAL RAIN INTO SW WASHINGTON AND THE N OREGON COAST LATER
THIS AM...WITH THE RAIN SPREADING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THREAT OF
RAIN BE HARD PRESSED TO MOVE SOUTH OF A NEWPORT TO SALEM LINE...SO
WILL KEEP ONLY MINOR THREAT OF RAIN...IF ANY...IN THOSE AREAS. THIS
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN LIFT BACK INTO
WASHINGTON STATE. AS SUCH...RAIN THREAT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD. BUT
WILL KEEP QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS OVER REGION TONIGHT.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TUE. ONCE AGAIN...
WILL CLOUDS INCREASE TUE AM...WITH RAIN THREAT INCREASING OVER REGION
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING BETTER THREAT OF
RAIN...BUT AGAIN MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL BE ON THE COAST AND INLAND
AREAS TO NORTH OF SALEM. ONCE THAT FRONT PASSES LATE TUE
AFTERNOON...AIR MASS WILL COOL...WITH SHOWERY WEATHER ON TAP FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED. SNOW LEVELS ALSO DROP DOWN TO NEAR 6000 FT...BUT ONLY
EXPECTING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

MODELS ALL AGREE ON COOL SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUE ON WED. MANY AREAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WED...EVEN
INLAND. TO EARLY TO TELL YET...BUT WITH COOL AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
AND DECENT INSTABILITY...COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL. SEEMS FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER WILL FEEL LIKELY EARLY OCTOBER.   /QUINTON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
TRIES TO SLIDE EASTWARD...THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS A FEW SHORTWAVES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY SLOW
THE PROGRESS AS THE TROUGH SLIDES A BIT SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED COOL...AND AT TIMES SHOWERY...CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE CASCADES. HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE A BIT FOR
THE WEEKEND FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER...PERHAPS BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR SUNDAY.   CULLEN
&&


.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE BOARD AT THIS TIME. COLD FRONT HAS
SOMEWHAT STALLED NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A FAIRLY STEADY MID LEVEL
DECK IN PLACE AROUND FL008 TO FL100. IT IS LOWERING A BIT OVER THE
NORTH COAST WITH KAST CIGS AT 050. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE APPEARS
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION WITH MODELS
INDICATING CLOUDS MUCH LOWER. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
AROUND MID-DAY AND BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHERN AREAS. MAY SEE
CIGS LOWER WITH THAT FRONTAL CROSSING BUT SEE MIXED MESSAGES AS
THE GFS KEEPS MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST AND VFR INLAND WHILE THE NAM
BRINGS IFR AT THE COAST AND MVFR INLAND. GIVEN THIS IS A WARM
FRONT AND THE NAM`S TENDENCY TO OVERREACT WITH WARM
PROCESSES...WILL FOLLOW THE GFS AS A FIRST GUESS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH A WEAK
COASTAL JET DEVELOPING. CONTINUE TO EXPECT WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25
KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH THE PEAK COASTAL JET WINDS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING.

SEAS ARE REMAINING SOMEWHAT STEEP AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
IS BRINGING A MODERATELY LONG FETCH AND ASSOCIATED WEST TO
NORTHWEST SWELL. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WILL SEE SEAS HOVER JUST SHY OF THE 10 FT HAZARDOUS
SEAS ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL PERHAPS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 11
SECOND PERIOD SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

THE PARENT UPPER LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL SHIFT
EAST WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW NORTHEAST PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. A
THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS UP THE CALIFORNIA COAST BUT DOESN`T MAKE
MUCH PROGRESS NORTH UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY. WILL SEE NORTHERLY
WINDS GRADUALLY RAMP UP THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY PRODUCING
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS FOR THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM TODAY FOR THE
 COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
 UNTIL 9 AM TODAY...AND AGAIN 5 PM TO 10 PM TODAY.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 310958
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
258 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, PERHAPS MAKING IT
DOWN TO ELLENSBURG AT TIMES. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LOW WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND DEEPENING THE
TROUGH SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND
BRING THE LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE OREGON CASCADES AS WELL ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL SEND A WAVE ASHORE AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
WALLOWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM IN
AND NEAR THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN DRY. ON WEDNESDAY THE WAVE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THOUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL REMAIN DRY.
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S TODAY AND TUESDAY BUT
WITH THE TROUGH MOVING ASHORE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY. PERRY

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH LINGERING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY WILL BE IN
BETWEEN STORMS SYSTEMS SO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER FRIDAY THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF CLOSES A LOW OFF OVER THE REGION WHILE THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT RAINS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN OREGON. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE DRY. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL IT BECOMES A BIT MORE CLEAR ON
WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE ON THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY IT SHOULD BE DRYING
OUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND SNOW LEVELS 6-7 THOUSAND FEET. IT WILL WARM UP A BIT
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 78


&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS AT AROUND 20000
FEET AGL. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRATOCUMULUS AT 6-8K FEET BUT NOT
EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO PRODUCE A CEILING. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
WESTERLY AT 7-12 KT AFTER 18Z BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN AFTER
06Z. 78


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  77  53  78  55 /  10   0  10  20
ALW  78  59  80  60 /  10   0  10  20
PSC  80  55  82  57 /  10   0  10  10
YKM  73  51  75  51 /  10  10  10  20
HRI  79  56  80  56 /  10   0  10  10
ELN  73  52  76  50 /  20  20  20  20
RDM  77  43  78  46 /  10   0   0  20
LGD  77  46  81  48 /  10   0   0  10
GCD  81  46  85  48 /  10   0   0  10
DLS  79  61  79  60 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/78/78




000
FXUS66 KPDT 310958
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
258 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, PERHAPS MAKING IT
DOWN TO ELLENSBURG AT TIMES. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LOW WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND DEEPENING THE
TROUGH SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND
BRING THE LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE OREGON CASCADES AS WELL ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL SEND A WAVE ASHORE AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
WALLOWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM IN
AND NEAR THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN DRY. ON WEDNESDAY THE WAVE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THOUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL REMAIN DRY.
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S TODAY AND TUESDAY BUT
WITH THE TROUGH MOVING ASHORE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY. PERRY

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH LINGERING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY WILL BE IN
BETWEEN STORMS SYSTEMS SO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER FRIDAY THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF CLOSES A LOW OFF OVER THE REGION WHILE THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT RAINS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN OREGON. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE DRY. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL IT BECOMES A BIT MORE CLEAR ON
WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE ON THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY IT SHOULD BE DRYING
OUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND SNOW LEVELS 6-7 THOUSAND FEET. IT WILL WARM UP A BIT
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 78


&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS AT AROUND 20000
FEET AGL. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRATOCUMULUS AT 6-8K FEET BUT NOT
EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO PRODUCE A CEILING. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
WESTERLY AT 7-12 KT AFTER 18Z BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN AFTER
06Z. 78


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  77  53  78  55 /  10   0  10  20
ALW  78  59  80  60 /  10   0  10  20
PSC  80  55  82  57 /  10   0  10  10
YKM  73  51  75  51 /  10  10  10  20
HRI  79  56  80  56 /  10   0  10  10
ELN  73  52  76  50 /  20  20  20  20
RDM  77  43  78  46 /  10   0   0  20
LGD  77  46  81  48 /  10   0   0  10
GCD  81  46  85  48 /  10   0   0  10
DLS  79  61  79  60 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/78/78



000
FXUS65 KBOI 310912
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
312 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND NO
RAIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHEN HIGHS REBOUND TO 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. PATCHY SMOKE IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO /MAINLY
COUNCIL NORTHWARD/ FROM ONGOING FIRES ACROSS THE NW AND NEW
STARTS IN CENTRAL IDAHO...DUE TO STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WITH
SATURDAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIFFER IN THE
DETAILS BUT AGREE IN GENERAL ON DEEPENING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SOUTHWARD OVER THE COAST AND BRINGING IT SLOWLY INLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MODEL DIFFER ON HOW LONG THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA...BUT
BY MONDAY EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE
CHANGE ON SATURDAY...THEN GRADUAL WARMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE
WINDS...VARIABLE MAINLY LESS THEN 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP
TO 20 KTS AT 10K FT MSL. AN INCREASE IN WILDFIRE SMOKE IS POSSIBLE
TODAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS66 KMFR 310801
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
101 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...31/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW MOVED OUT TO THE
EAST...AND WEAK TO MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST...MOSTLY OVER THE
CASCADES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE SOON.

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

HOWEVER...THE MEDFORD CWA WILL CATCH THE WEAK SOUTHERN END OF
SYSTEMS MOVING ONSHORE. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY
AND IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA BASIN. THE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IT WILL BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND FROM
THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. UPPER KLAMATH COUNTY MAY
GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN TOO. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AROUND TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. THE 31/00Z GFS FINALLY MOVES IT OUT
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE 30/12Z EC IS ABOUT 12 TO 18
HOURS SLOWER. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COOL
WITH INLAND HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS
MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS INTERVAL. THE WETTER EC LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER FORECAST DURING THIS STRETCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...SO WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE UPPED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS MURKIER. IT MAY BE COOL AND SHOWERY
WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/06Z TAF CYCLE... CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES WILL CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FROM THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE NORTHWARD. LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR AND
EVEN IFR IN ISOLATED AREAS. VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING
MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND FROM THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE....WITH STRATUS
RETURNING TO THE COAST AND THE UMPQUA BASIN TOMORROW NIGHT. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1050 PM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...LONGER PERIOD
SWELL HAS BECOME DOMINANT IN THE WATERS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
DISSIPATE ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AFTER CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK
INCREASING NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEKEND. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/02




000
FXUS66 KMFR 310801
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
101 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...31/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW MOVED OUT TO THE
EAST...AND WEAK TO MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST...MOSTLY OVER THE
CASCADES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE SOON.

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

HOWEVER...THE MEDFORD CWA WILL CATCH THE WEAK SOUTHERN END OF
SYSTEMS MOVING ONSHORE. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY
AND IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA BASIN. THE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IT WILL BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND FROM
THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. UPPER KLAMATH COUNTY MAY
GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN TOO. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AROUND TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. THE 31/00Z GFS FINALLY MOVES IT OUT
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE 30/12Z EC IS ABOUT 12 TO 18
HOURS SLOWER. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COOL
WITH INLAND HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS
MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS INTERVAL. THE WETTER EC LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER FORECAST DURING THIS STRETCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...SO WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE UPPED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS MURKIER. IT MAY BE COOL AND SHOWERY
WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/06Z TAF CYCLE... CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES WILL CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FROM THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE NORTHWARD. LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR AND
EVEN IFR IN ISOLATED AREAS. VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING
MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND FROM THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE....WITH STRATUS
RETURNING TO THE COAST AND THE UMPQUA BASIN TOMORROW NIGHT. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1050 PM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...LONGER PERIOD
SWELL HAS BECOME DOMINANT IN THE WATERS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
DISSIPATE ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AFTER CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK
INCREASING NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEKEND. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/02



000
FXUS66 KPDT 310536 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN SHOWERS WERE LINGERING OVER THE WA/OR
CASCADES...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM EARLIER WERE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REST OF THE AREA. A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE FAR NW
CWA AND THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WAS FILTERING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND THE FORECAST REPRESENTS THIS. OTHER
THAN A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THE PRESENT SHORT
TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...TAF SITE KRDM MAY EXPERIENCE SCT040 UNTIL 08Z...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DISTURBANCE THAT HAS
BROUGHT VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY EVENING. THUS WILL SEE AN END TO THE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA BY SUNSET, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST AND OVER EASTERN WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING.
BREEZY WINDS WILL KICK UP SOME LOCAL BLOWING DUST IN THE LOWER BASIN
OF WASHINGTON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SLOP OVER FROM WESTERN WASHINGTON
INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE TROUGH
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA OF
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT WILL FALL 8 TO 10 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES. 90

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND RESULTS IN A
DRYING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  79  51  80 /   0  10   0  10
ALW  57  80  57  81 /   0  10   0  10
PSC  56  82  55  82 /   0  10   0  10
YKM  54  76  48  76 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  53  82  52  83 /   0  10   0  10
ELN  54  74  52  74 /  10  20  20  20
RDM  40  78  41  79 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  47  78  47  80 /  10  10   0   0
GCD  47  80  47  81 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  58  79  59  78 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97



000
FXUS66 KPDT 310536 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN SHOWERS WERE LINGERING OVER THE WA/OR
CASCADES...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM EARLIER WERE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REST OF THE AREA. A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE FAR NW
CWA AND THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WAS FILTERING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND THE FORECAST REPRESENTS THIS. OTHER
THAN A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THE PRESENT SHORT
TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...TAF SITE KRDM MAY EXPERIENCE SCT040 UNTIL 08Z...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DISTURBANCE THAT HAS
BROUGHT VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY EVENING. THUS WILL SEE AN END TO THE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA BY SUNSET, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST AND OVER EASTERN WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING.
BREEZY WINDS WILL KICK UP SOME LOCAL BLOWING DUST IN THE LOWER BASIN
OF WASHINGTON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SLOP OVER FROM WESTERN WASHINGTON
INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE TROUGH
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA OF
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT WILL FALL 8 TO 10 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES. 90

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND RESULTS IN A
DRYING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  79  51  80 /   0  10   0  10
ALW  57  80  57  81 /   0  10   0  10
PSC  56  82  55  82 /   0  10   0  10
YKM  54  76  48  76 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  53  82  52  83 /   0  10   0  10
ELN  54  74  52  74 /  10  20  20  20
RDM  40  78  41  79 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  47  78  47  80 /  10  10   0   0
GCD  47  80  47  81 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  58  79  59  78 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97



000
FXUS66 KPDT 310536 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN SHOWERS WERE LINGERING OVER THE WA/OR
CASCADES...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM EARLIER WERE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REST OF THE AREA. A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE FAR NW
CWA AND THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WAS FILTERING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND THE FORECAST REPRESENTS THIS. OTHER
THAN A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THE PRESENT SHORT
TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...TAF SITE KRDM MAY EXPERIENCE SCT040 UNTIL 08Z...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DISTURBANCE THAT HAS
BROUGHT VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY EVENING. THUS WILL SEE AN END TO THE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA BY SUNSET, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST AND OVER EASTERN WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING.
BREEZY WINDS WILL KICK UP SOME LOCAL BLOWING DUST IN THE LOWER BASIN
OF WASHINGTON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SLOP OVER FROM WESTERN WASHINGTON
INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE TROUGH
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA OF
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT WILL FALL 8 TO 10 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES. 90

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND RESULTS IN A
DRYING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  79  51  80 /   0  10   0  10
ALW  57  80  57  81 /   0  10   0  10
PSC  56  82  55  82 /   0  10   0  10
YKM  54  76  48  76 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  53  82  52  83 /   0  10   0  10
ELN  54  74  52  74 /  10  20  20  20
RDM  40  78  41  79 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  47  78  47  80 /  10  10   0   0
GCD  47  80  47  81 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  58  79  59  78 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97



000
FXUS66 KPDT 310536 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN SHOWERS WERE LINGERING OVER THE WA/OR
CASCADES...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM EARLIER WERE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REST OF THE AREA. A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE FAR NW
CWA AND THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WAS FILTERING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND THE FORECAST REPRESENTS THIS. OTHER
THAN A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THE PRESENT SHORT
TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...TAF SITE KRDM MAY EXPERIENCE SCT040 UNTIL 08Z...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DISTURBANCE THAT HAS
BROUGHT VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY EVENING. THUS WILL SEE AN END TO THE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA BY SUNSET, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST AND OVER EASTERN WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING.
BREEZY WINDS WILL KICK UP SOME LOCAL BLOWING DUST IN THE LOWER BASIN
OF WASHINGTON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SLOP OVER FROM WESTERN WASHINGTON
INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE TROUGH
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA OF
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT WILL FALL 8 TO 10 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES. 90

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND RESULTS IN A
DRYING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  79  51  80 /   0  10   0  10
ALW  57  80  57  81 /   0  10   0  10
PSC  56  82  55  82 /   0  10   0  10
YKM  54  76  48  76 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  53  82  52  83 /   0  10   0  10
ELN  54  74  52  74 /  10  20  20  20
RDM  40  78  41  79 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  47  78  47  80 /  10  10   0   0
GCD  47  80  47  81 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  58  79  59  78 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97



000
FXUS66 KPDT 310536 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN SHOWERS WERE LINGERING OVER THE WA/OR
CASCADES...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM EARLIER WERE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REST OF THE AREA. A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE FAR NW
CWA AND THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WAS FILTERING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND THE FORECAST REPRESENTS THIS. OTHER
THAN A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THE PRESENT SHORT
TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...TAF SITE KRDM MAY EXPERIENCE SCT040 UNTIL 08Z...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DISTURBANCE THAT HAS
BROUGHT VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY EVENING. THUS WILL SEE AN END TO THE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA BY SUNSET, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST AND OVER EASTERN WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING.
BREEZY WINDS WILL KICK UP SOME LOCAL BLOWING DUST IN THE LOWER BASIN
OF WASHINGTON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SLOP OVER FROM WESTERN WASHINGTON
INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE TROUGH
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA OF
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT WILL FALL 8 TO 10 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES. 90

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND RESULTS IN A
DRYING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  79  51  80 /   0  10   0  10
ALW  57  80  57  81 /   0  10   0  10
PSC  56  82  55  82 /   0  10   0  10
YKM  54  76  48  76 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  53  82  52  83 /   0  10   0  10
ELN  54  74  52  74 /  10  20  20  20
RDM  40  78  41  79 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  47  78  47  80 /  10  10   0   0
GCD  47  80  47  81 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  58  79  59  78 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97




000
FXUS66 KPDT 310536 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN SHOWERS WERE LINGERING OVER THE WA/OR
CASCADES...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM EARLIER WERE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REST OF THE AREA. A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE FAR NW
CWA AND THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WAS FILTERING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND THE FORECAST REPRESENTS THIS. OTHER
THAN A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THE PRESENT SHORT
TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...TAF SITE KRDM MAY EXPERIENCE SCT040 UNTIL 08Z...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DISTURBANCE THAT HAS
BROUGHT VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY EVENING. THUS WILL SEE AN END TO THE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA BY SUNSET, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST AND OVER EASTERN WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING.
BREEZY WINDS WILL KICK UP SOME LOCAL BLOWING DUST IN THE LOWER BASIN
OF WASHINGTON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SLOP OVER FROM WESTERN WASHINGTON
INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE TROUGH
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA OF
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT WILL FALL 8 TO 10 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES. 90

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND RESULTS IN A
DRYING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  79  51  80 /   0  10   0  10
ALW  57  80  57  81 /   0  10   0  10
PSC  56  82  55  82 /   0  10   0  10
YKM  54  76  48  76 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  53  82  52  83 /   0  10   0  10
ELN  54  74  52  74 /  10  20  20  20
RDM  40  78  41  79 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  47  78  47  80 /  10  10   0   0
GCD  47  80  47  81 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  58  79  59  78 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97



000
FXUS66 KPQR 310358
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
854 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO
THE COAST AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON ON MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST OREGON LATER TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND.


&&


.UPDATE...DOPPLER RADAR THIS EVENING SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES...BUT THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WANES.
A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTH OREGON AND WASHINGTON COAST WILL
PUSH EASTWARD AND BRING INCREASING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO MAINLY OUR
NORTHERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
PRECIPITATION COULD SNEAK AS FAR SOUTH AS NEWPORT AND THE PORTLAND
METRO TUESDAY MORNING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SPREAD BETTER
RAIN CHANCES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. QPF TOTALS
SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THE PAST 24 HOURS THOUGH.
NONETHELESS...IT WILL CONTINUE TO HELP EASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN
SPREAD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND LINGER FOR AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MUCH COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING PEAKS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO DROP
DOWN INTO THE 5.5KFT TO 6.5KFT RANGE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. A FEW
OF OUR STREAKS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 70F OR GREATER AND LOW
TEMPERATURES OF 50F OR GREATER IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL BE IN
JEOPARDY LATER THIS WEEK. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
TRIES TO SLIDE EASTWARD...THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS A FEW SHORTWAVES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY SLOW
THE PROGRESS AS THE TROUGH SLIDES A BIT SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED COOL...AND AT TIMES SHOWERY...CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE CASCADES. HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE A BIT FOR
THE WEEKEND FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER...PERHAPS BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR SUNDAY.   CULLEN


&&


.AVIATION...SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND
COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST WILL LOWER TOWARDS MVFR OVERNIGHT AS MARINE STRATUS
PUSHES ONSHORE. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY ALSO POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF KTMK. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TOWARDS VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. /64


&&


.MARINE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT SCA GUSTS OF 25 KT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SCA FOR WINDS AS IS...BUT SUSPECT WE MAY BE
ABLE TO DROP IT MONDAY MORNING AS MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOWARDS WEAKER WINDS.

THE DISTANT WESTERLY SWELL HAS BECOME THE DOMINATE WAVE PERIOD
THIS EVENING WITH SEAS RUNNING AROUND 8 TO 10 FT. SEAS LOOK TO
CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 7 TO 9 FT...SO WILL NOT
EXTEND THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. HOWEVER...WE MAY CONTINUE TO
GET A FEW OBS THAT TOUCH 10 FT OVERNIGHT

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF SCA WINDS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 7
TO 10 FT THROUGH THE WEEK. A RETURN TO THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. /64


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 AM
     TO 9 AM PDT MONDAY...AND FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM PDT MONDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310358
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
854 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO
THE COAST AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON ON MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST OREGON LATER TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND.


&&


.UPDATE...DOPPLER RADAR THIS EVENING SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES...BUT THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WANES.
A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTH OREGON AND WASHINGTON COAST WILL
PUSH EASTWARD AND BRING INCREASING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO MAINLY OUR
NORTHERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
PRECIPITATION COULD SNEAK AS FAR SOUTH AS NEWPORT AND THE PORTLAND
METRO TUESDAY MORNING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SPREAD BETTER
RAIN CHANCES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. QPF TOTALS
SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THE PAST 24 HOURS THOUGH.
NONETHELESS...IT WILL CONTINUE TO HELP EASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN
SPREAD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND LINGER FOR AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MUCH COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING PEAKS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO DROP
DOWN INTO THE 5.5KFT TO 6.5KFT RANGE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. A FEW
OF OUR STREAKS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 70F OR GREATER AND LOW
TEMPERATURES OF 50F OR GREATER IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL BE IN
JEOPARDY LATER THIS WEEK. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
TRIES TO SLIDE EASTWARD...THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS A FEW SHORTWAVES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY SLOW
THE PROGRESS AS THE TROUGH SLIDES A BIT SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED COOL...AND AT TIMES SHOWERY...CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE CASCADES. HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE A BIT FOR
THE WEEKEND FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER...PERHAPS BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR SUNDAY.   CULLEN


&&


.AVIATION...SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND
COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST WILL LOWER TOWARDS MVFR OVERNIGHT AS MARINE STRATUS
PUSHES ONSHORE. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY ALSO POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF KTMK. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TOWARDS VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. /64


&&


.MARINE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT SCA GUSTS OF 25 KT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SCA FOR WINDS AS IS...BUT SUSPECT WE MAY BE
ABLE TO DROP IT MONDAY MORNING AS MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOWARDS WEAKER WINDS.

THE DISTANT WESTERLY SWELL HAS BECOME THE DOMINATE WAVE PERIOD
THIS EVENING WITH SEAS RUNNING AROUND 8 TO 10 FT. SEAS LOOK TO
CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 7 TO 9 FT...SO WILL NOT
EXTEND THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. HOWEVER...WE MAY CONTINUE TO
GET A FEW OBS THAT TOUCH 10 FT OVERNIGHT

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF SCA WINDS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 7
TO 10 FT THROUGH THE WEEK. A RETURN TO THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. /64


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 AM
     TO 9 AM PDT MONDAY...AND FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM PDT MONDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 310357
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
855 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE CUMULUS
FLATTENING AND SLOWLY DISSIPATED INLAND AS WELL. WITH A COOL AIR
MASS BEHIND THE EXITING WEAK SYSTEM HIGHER VALLEYS IN PORTIONS OF
THE EAST SIDE COULD SEE ISOLATED FROST BY THE MORNING. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND WEST SIDE RAINS TO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY AS
WELL, BUT HAVE NOT BEEN NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT BY TONIGHT ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES TODAY SO FAR HAVE
REMAINED AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN
STARK CONTRAST TO THE VERY WARM SUMMER LEADING UP TO NOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT, AND
ALTHOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LET TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.
TUESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION, AND THIS
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
SCATTERING AND SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
SIDE.

MODELS DEPICT A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY AND TOWARDS
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED, AS THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DEPICT MORE FALL-LIKE
WEATHER LIKELY ARRIVING IN TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR IN MANY
AREAS. VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES INLAND FROM THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 250 PM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY LONGER PERIOD
SWELL THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DISSIPATE ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AFTER CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK INCREASING NORTH
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/SBN/TRW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 310357
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
855 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE CUMULUS
FLATTENING AND SLOWLY DISSIPATED INLAND AS WELL. WITH A COOL AIR
MASS BEHIND THE EXITING WEAK SYSTEM HIGHER VALLEYS IN PORTIONS OF
THE EAST SIDE COULD SEE ISOLATED FROST BY THE MORNING. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND WEST SIDE RAINS TO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY AS
WELL, BUT HAVE NOT BEEN NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT BY TONIGHT ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES TODAY SO FAR HAVE
REMAINED AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN
STARK CONTRAST TO THE VERY WARM SUMMER LEADING UP TO NOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT, AND
ALTHOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LET TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.
TUESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION, AND THIS
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
SCATTERING AND SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
SIDE.

MODELS DEPICT A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY AND TOWARDS
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED, AS THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DEPICT MORE FALL-LIKE
WEATHER LIKELY ARRIVING IN TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR IN MANY
AREAS. VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES INLAND FROM THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 250 PM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY LONGER PERIOD
SWELL THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DISSIPATE ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AFTER CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK INCREASING NORTH
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/SBN/TRW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 310357
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
855 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE CUMULUS
FLATTENING AND SLOWLY DISSIPATED INLAND AS WELL. WITH A COOL AIR
MASS BEHIND THE EXITING WEAK SYSTEM HIGHER VALLEYS IN PORTIONS OF
THE EAST SIDE COULD SEE ISOLATED FROST BY THE MORNING. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND WEST SIDE RAINS TO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY AS
WELL, BUT HAVE NOT BEEN NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT BY TONIGHT ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES TODAY SO FAR HAVE
REMAINED AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN
STARK CONTRAST TO THE VERY WARM SUMMER LEADING UP TO NOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT, AND
ALTHOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LET TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.
TUESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION, AND THIS
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
SCATTERING AND SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
SIDE.

MODELS DEPICT A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY AND TOWARDS
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED, AS THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DEPICT MORE FALL-LIKE
WEATHER LIKELY ARRIVING IN TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR IN MANY
AREAS. VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES INLAND FROM THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 250 PM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY LONGER PERIOD
SWELL THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DISSIPATE ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AFTER CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK INCREASING NORTH
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/SBN/TRW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 310357
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
855 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE CUMULUS
FLATTENING AND SLOWLY DISSIPATED INLAND AS WELL. WITH A COOL AIR
MASS BEHIND THE EXITING WEAK SYSTEM HIGHER VALLEYS IN PORTIONS OF
THE EAST SIDE COULD SEE ISOLATED FROST BY THE MORNING. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND WEST SIDE RAINS TO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY AS
WELL, BUT HAVE NOT BEEN NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT BY TONIGHT ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES TODAY SO FAR HAVE
REMAINED AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN
STARK CONTRAST TO THE VERY WARM SUMMER LEADING UP TO NOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT, AND
ALTHOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LET TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.
TUESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION, AND THIS
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
SCATTERING AND SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
SIDE.

MODELS DEPICT A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY AND TOWARDS
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED, AS THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DEPICT MORE FALL-LIKE
WEATHER LIKELY ARRIVING IN TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR IN MANY
AREAS. VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES INLAND FROM THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 250 PM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY LONGER PERIOD
SWELL THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DISSIPATE ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AFTER CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK INCREASING NORTH
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/SBN/TRW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 310357
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
855 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE CUMULUS
FLATTENING AND SLOWLY DISSIPATED INLAND AS WELL. WITH A COOL AIR
MASS BEHIND THE EXITING WEAK SYSTEM HIGHER VALLEYS IN PORTIONS OF
THE EAST SIDE COULD SEE ISOLATED FROST BY THE MORNING. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND WEST SIDE RAINS TO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY AS
WELL, BUT HAVE NOT BEEN NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT BY TONIGHT ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES TODAY SO FAR HAVE
REMAINED AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN
STARK CONTRAST TO THE VERY WARM SUMMER LEADING UP TO NOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT, AND
ALTHOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LET TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.
TUESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION, AND THIS
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
SCATTERING AND SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
SIDE.

MODELS DEPICT A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY AND TOWARDS
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED, AS THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DEPICT MORE FALL-LIKE
WEATHER LIKELY ARRIVING IN TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR IN MANY
AREAS. VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES INLAND FROM THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 250 PM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY LONGER PERIOD
SWELL THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DISSIPATE ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AFTER CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK INCREASING NORTH
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/SBN/TRW




000
FXUS65 KBOI 310310
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
910 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY CAUSING SOME
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN EAST CENTRAL OREGON AND
WEST CENTRAL IDAHO. AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...THE
CLOUD DECK WILL DECREASE OVER OUR REGION. HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE
SHOWERS AND REDUCE CLOUD COVER BEFORE MIDNIGHT MONDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT. NO FURTHER UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MID-LEVEL CEILINGS E-CENTRAL OREGON AND W-CENTRAL
IDAHO WILL BREAK UP OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KTS THROUGH 10K FEET ALOFT.
AN INCREASE IN SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCTION VISIBILITY DUE TO WILDFIRE
SMOKE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AFTER A FEW SHOWERS IN NRN-MOST ZONES THIS EVENING...
NO MORE PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY.  COOL UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY THEN 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SO MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY.  ON TUESDAY...EVEN
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS HOLDING STEADY...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK FROM
WESTERLY TO SWLY AND WE EXPECT ANOTHER 5-8 DEGS WARMING. AS FOR MIN
TEMPS...TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
LAST NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGS WARMER
THAN TONIGHT/S MINS.  LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST FROM ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS NOW FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER
OR/WA/ID BORDER FRI AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD PROMOTE EVEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION.....DG
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA/JC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 310310
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
910 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY CAUSING SOME
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN EAST CENTRAL OREGON AND
WEST CENTRAL IDAHO. AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...THE
CLOUD DECK WILL DECREASE OVER OUR REGION. HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE
SHOWERS AND REDUCE CLOUD COVER BEFORE MIDNIGHT MONDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT. NO FURTHER UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MID-LEVEL CEILINGS E-CENTRAL OREGON AND W-CENTRAL
IDAHO WILL BREAK UP OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KTS THROUGH 10K FEET ALOFT.
AN INCREASE IN SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCTION VISIBILITY DUE TO WILDFIRE
SMOKE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AFTER A FEW SHOWERS IN NRN-MOST ZONES THIS EVENING...
NO MORE PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY.  COOL UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY THEN 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SO MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY.  ON TUESDAY...EVEN
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS HOLDING STEADY...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK FROM
WESTERLY TO SWLY AND WE EXPECT ANOTHER 5-8 DEGS WARMING. AS FOR MIN
TEMPS...TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
LAST NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGS WARMER
THAN TONIGHT/S MINS.  LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST FROM ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS NOW FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER
OR/WA/ID BORDER FRI AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD PROMOTE EVEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION.....DG
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA/JC



000
FXUS66 KPDT 310228 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
725 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN SHOWERS WERE LINGERING OVER THE WA/OR
CASCADES THIS EVENING...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM EARLIER WERE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REST OF THE AREA. A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
CLIP THE FAR NW CWA AND THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG
AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WAS
FILTERING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND THE FORECAST REPRESENTS
THIS. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THE
PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DISTURBANCE THAT HAS
BROUGHT VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY EVENING. THUS WILL SEE AN END TO THE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA BY SUNSET, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST AND OVER EASTERN WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING.
BREEZY WINDS WILL KICK UP SOME LOCAL BLOWING DUST IN THE LOWER BASIN
OF WASHINGTON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SLOP OVER FROM WESTERN WASHINGTON
INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE TROUGH
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA OF
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT WILL FALL 8 TO 10 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES. 90

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND RESULTS IN A
DRYING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EARLE

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DECREASE
TO 10 KTS OR BELOW OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS. EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  79  51  80 /   0  10   0  10
ALW  57  80  57  81 /   0  10   0  10
PSC  56  82  55  82 /   0  10   0  10
YKM  54  76  48  76 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  53  82  52  83 /   0  10   0  10
ELN  54  74  52  74 /  10  20  20  20
RDM  40  78  41  79 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  47  78  47  80 /  10  10   0   0
GCD  47  80  47  81 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  58  79  59  78 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/



000
FXUS66 KPDT 310228 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
725 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN SHOWERS WERE LINGERING OVER THE WA/OR
CASCADES THIS EVENING...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM EARLIER WERE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REST OF THE AREA. A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
CLIP THE FAR NW CWA AND THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG
AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WAS
FILTERING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND THE FORECAST REPRESENTS
THIS. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THE
PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DISTURBANCE THAT HAS
BROUGHT VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY EVENING. THUS WILL SEE AN END TO THE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA BY SUNSET, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST AND OVER EASTERN WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING.
BREEZY WINDS WILL KICK UP SOME LOCAL BLOWING DUST IN THE LOWER BASIN
OF WASHINGTON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SLOP OVER FROM WESTERN WASHINGTON
INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE TROUGH
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA OF
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT WILL FALL 8 TO 10 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES. 90

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND RESULTS IN A
DRYING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EARLE

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DECREASE
TO 10 KTS OR BELOW OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS. EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  79  51  80 /   0  10   0  10
ALW  57  80  57  81 /   0  10   0  10
PSC  56  82  55  82 /   0  10   0  10
YKM  54  76  48  76 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  53  82  52  83 /   0  10   0  10
ELN  54  74  52  74 /  10  20  20  20
RDM  40  78  41  79 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  47  78  47  80 /  10  10   0   0
GCD  47  80  47  81 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  58  79  59  78 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/



000
FXUS66 KPDT 310228 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
725 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN SHOWERS WERE LINGERING OVER THE WA/OR
CASCADES THIS EVENING...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM EARLIER WERE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REST OF THE AREA. A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
CLIP THE FAR NW CWA AND THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG
AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WAS
FILTERING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND THE FORECAST REPRESENTS
THIS. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THE
PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DISTURBANCE THAT HAS
BROUGHT VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY EVENING. THUS WILL SEE AN END TO THE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA BY SUNSET, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST AND OVER EASTERN WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING.
BREEZY WINDS WILL KICK UP SOME LOCAL BLOWING DUST IN THE LOWER BASIN
OF WASHINGTON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SLOP OVER FROM WESTERN WASHINGTON
INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE TROUGH
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA OF
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT WILL FALL 8 TO 10 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES. 90

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND RESULTS IN A
DRYING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EARLE

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DECREASE
TO 10 KTS OR BELOW OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS. EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  79  51  80 /   0  10   0  10
ALW  57  80  57  81 /   0  10   0  10
PSC  56  82  55  82 /   0  10   0  10
YKM  54  76  48  76 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  53  82  52  83 /   0  10   0  10
ELN  54  74  52  74 /  10  20  20  20
RDM  40  78  41  79 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  47  78  47  80 /  10  10   0   0
GCD  47  80  47  81 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  58  79  59  78 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/



000
FXUS66 KPDT 310228 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
725 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN SHOWERS WERE LINGERING OVER THE WA/OR
CASCADES THIS EVENING...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM EARLIER WERE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REST OF THE AREA. A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
CLIP THE FAR NW CWA AND THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG
AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WAS
FILTERING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND THE FORECAST REPRESENTS
THIS. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THE
PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DISTURBANCE THAT HAS
BROUGHT VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY EVENING. THUS WILL SEE AN END TO THE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA BY SUNSET, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST AND OVER EASTERN WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING.
BREEZY WINDS WILL KICK UP SOME LOCAL BLOWING DUST IN THE LOWER BASIN
OF WASHINGTON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SLOP OVER FROM WESTERN WASHINGTON
INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE TROUGH
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA OF
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT WILL FALL 8 TO 10 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES. 90

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND RESULTS IN A
DRYING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EARLE

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DECREASE
TO 10 KTS OR BELOW OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS. EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  79  51  80 /   0  10   0  10
ALW  57  80  57  81 /   0  10   0  10
PSC  56  82  55  82 /   0  10   0  10
YKM  54  76  48  76 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  53  82  52  83 /   0  10   0  10
ELN  54  74  52  74 /  10  20  20  20
RDM  40  78  41  79 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  47  78  47  80 /  10  10   0   0
GCD  47  80  47  81 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  58  79  59  78 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/



000
FXUS66 KMFR 310010
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
510 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WEST SIDE RAINS
TO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY AS WELL, BUT HAVE NOT
BEEN NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT BY TONIGHT ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES TODAY SO FAR HAVE REMAINED
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE VERY WARM SUMMER LEADING UP TO NOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT, AND
ALTHOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LET TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.
TUESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION, AND THIS
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
SCATTERING AND SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
SIDE.

MODELS DEPICT A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY AND TOWARDS
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED, AS THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DEPICT MORE FALL-LIKE
WEATHER LIKELY ARRIVING IN TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR IN MANY
AREAS. VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES INLAND FROM THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 250 PM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY LONGER PERIOD
SWELL THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DISSIPATE ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AFTER CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK INCREASING NORTH
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/SBN/TRW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 310010
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
510 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WEST SIDE RAINS
TO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY AS WELL, BUT HAVE NOT
BEEN NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT BY TONIGHT ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES TODAY SO FAR HAVE REMAINED
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE VERY WARM SUMMER LEADING UP TO NOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT, AND
ALTHOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LET TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.
TUESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION, AND THIS
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
SCATTERING AND SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
SIDE.

MODELS DEPICT A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY AND TOWARDS
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED, AS THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DEPICT MORE FALL-LIKE
WEATHER LIKELY ARRIVING IN TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR IN MANY
AREAS. VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES INLAND FROM THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 250 PM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY LONGER PERIOD
SWELL THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DISSIPATE ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AFTER CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK INCREASING NORTH
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/SBN/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 310010
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
510 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WEST SIDE RAINS
TO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY AS WELL, BUT HAVE NOT
BEEN NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT BY TONIGHT ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES TODAY SO FAR HAVE REMAINED
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE VERY WARM SUMMER LEADING UP TO NOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT, AND
ALTHOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LET TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.
TUESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION, AND THIS
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
SCATTERING AND SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
SIDE.

MODELS DEPICT A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY AND TOWARDS
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED, AS THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DEPICT MORE FALL-LIKE
WEATHER LIKELY ARRIVING IN TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR IN MANY
AREAS. VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES INLAND FROM THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 250 PM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY LONGER PERIOD
SWELL THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DISSIPATE ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AFTER CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK INCREASING NORTH
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/SBN/TRW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 310010
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
510 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WEST SIDE RAINS
TO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY AS WELL, BUT HAVE NOT
BEEN NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT BY TONIGHT ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES TODAY SO FAR HAVE REMAINED
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE VERY WARM SUMMER LEADING UP TO NOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT, AND
ALTHOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LET TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.
TUESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION, AND THIS
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
SCATTERING AND SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
SIDE.

MODELS DEPICT A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY AND TOWARDS
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED, AS THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DEPICT MORE FALL-LIKE
WEATHER LIKELY ARRIVING IN TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR IN MANY
AREAS. VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES INLAND FROM THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 250 PM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY LONGER PERIOD
SWELL THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DISSIPATE ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AFTER CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK INCREASING NORTH
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/SBN/TRW




000
FXUS66 KPDT 302145
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
245 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DISTURBANCE THAT HAS
BROUGHT VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY EVENING. THUS WILL SEE AN END TO THE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA BY SUNSET, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST AND OVER EASTERN WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING.
BREEZY WINDS WILL KICK UP SOME LOCAL BLOWING DUST IN THE LOWER BASIN
OF WASHINGTON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SLOP OVER FROM WESTERN WASHINGTON
INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE TROUGH
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA OF
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT WILL FALL 8 TO 10 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES. 90

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND RESULTS IN A
DRYING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EARLE

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DECREASE
TO 10 KTS OR BELOW OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS. EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  79  51  80 /   0  10   0  10
ALW  56  80  57  81 /   0  10   0  10
PSC  55  82  55  82 /   0  10   0  10
YKM  53  76  48  76 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  52  82  52  83 /   0  10   0  10
ELN  53  74  52  74 /  10  20  20  20
RDM  39  78  41  79 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  47  78  47  80 /  10  10   0   0
GCD  46  80  47  81 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  57  79  59  78 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/81/81




000
FXUS66 KPDT 302145
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
245 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DISTURBANCE THAT HAS
BROUGHT VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY EVENING. THUS WILL SEE AN END TO THE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA BY SUNSET, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST AND OVER EASTERN WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING.
BREEZY WINDS WILL KICK UP SOME LOCAL BLOWING DUST IN THE LOWER BASIN
OF WASHINGTON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SLOP OVER FROM WESTERN WASHINGTON
INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE TROUGH
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA OF
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT WILL FALL 8 TO 10 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES. 90

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND RESULTS IN A
DRYING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EARLE

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DECREASE
TO 10 KTS OR BELOW OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS. EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  79  51  80 /   0  10   0  10
ALW  56  80  57  81 /   0  10   0  10
PSC  55  82  55  82 /   0  10   0  10
YKM  53  76  48  76 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  52  82  52  83 /   0  10   0  10
ELN  53  74  52  74 /  10  20  20  20
RDM  39  78  41  79 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  47  78  47  80 /  10  10   0   0
GCD  46  80  47  81 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  57  79  59  78 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/81/81




000
FXUS66 KPDT 302145
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
245 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DISTURBANCE THAT HAS
BROUGHT VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY EVENING. THUS WILL SEE AN END TO THE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA BY SUNSET, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST AND OVER EASTERN WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING.
BREEZY WINDS WILL KICK UP SOME LOCAL BLOWING DUST IN THE LOWER BASIN
OF WASHINGTON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SLOP OVER FROM WESTERN WASHINGTON
INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE TROUGH
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA OF
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT WILL FALL 8 TO 10 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES. 90

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND RESULTS IN A
DRYING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EARLE

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DECREASE
TO 10 KTS OR BELOW OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS. EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  79  51  80 /   0  10   0  10
ALW  56  80  57  81 /   0  10   0  10
PSC  55  82  55  82 /   0  10   0  10
YKM  53  76  48  76 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  52  82  52  83 /   0  10   0  10
ELN  53  74  52  74 /  10  20  20  20
RDM  39  78  41  79 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  47  78  47  80 /  10  10   0   0
GCD  46  80  47  81 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  57  79  59  78 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/81/81




000
FXUS66 KPDT 302145
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
245 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DISTURBANCE THAT HAS
BROUGHT VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY EVENING. THUS WILL SEE AN END TO THE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA BY SUNSET, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST AND OVER EASTERN WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING.
BREEZY WINDS WILL KICK UP SOME LOCAL BLOWING DUST IN THE LOWER BASIN
OF WASHINGTON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SLOP OVER FROM WESTERN WASHINGTON
INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE TROUGH
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA OF
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT WILL FALL 8 TO 10 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES. 90

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND RESULTS IN A
DRYING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EARLE

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DECREASE
TO 10 KTS OR BELOW OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS. EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  79  51  80 /   0  10   0  10
ALW  56  80  57  81 /   0  10   0  10
PSC  55  82  55  82 /   0  10   0  10
YKM  53  76  48  76 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  52  82  52  83 /   0  10   0  10
ELN  53  74  52  74 /  10  20  20  20
RDM  39  78  41  79 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  47  78  47  80 /  10  10   0   0
GCD  46  80  47  81 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  57  79  59  78 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/81/81




000
FXUS66 KMFR 302124
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
224 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
WEST SIDE RAINS TO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY AS WELL,
BUT HAVE NOT BEEN NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT BY TONIGHT ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES TODAY SO FAR
HAVE REMAINED AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE VERY WARM SUMMER LEADING UP TO NOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT, AND
ALTHOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LET TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.
TUESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION, AND THIS
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
SCATTERING AND SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
SIDE.

MODELS DEPICT A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY AND TOWARDS
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED, AS THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DEPICT MORE FALL-LIKE
WEATHER LIKELY ARRIVING IN TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. -BPN/CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 302124
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
224 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
WEST SIDE RAINS TO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY AS WELL,
BUT HAVE NOT BEEN NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT BY TONIGHT ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES TODAY SO FAR
HAVE REMAINED AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE VERY WARM SUMMER LEADING UP TO NOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT, AND
ALTHOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LET TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.
TUESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION, AND THIS
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
SCATTERING AND SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
SIDE.

MODELS DEPICT A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY AND TOWARDS
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED, AS THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DEPICT MORE FALL-LIKE
WEATHER LIKELY ARRIVING IN TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. -BPN/CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/TRW



000
FXUS66 KPQR 302114
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
214 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES FURTHER INLAND. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO
THE COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY....FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUED COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY....AND POSSIBLY
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW
AND THE NE PACIFIC WILL RESULT IN COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER FOR THE
PORTLAND FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE
CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CASCADES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND DECREASE WEST OF THE CASCADES. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING HEAVY BRIEF DOWNPOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY NEAR 52N 132W...JUST OFF THE B.C. COAST. A WEAK
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NW OREGON LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DISINTEGRATE OVER THE AREA LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR SW WASHINGTON...THE
NORTH OREGON COAST...AND THE NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE AS WELL.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT WITH 24 HOUR TOTALS LESS THAN 0.25
INCH.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE WARM FRONT. SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE THE WARMEST SINCE THEY
WILL NOT LIKELY SEE MUCH IMPACTS FROM THE FRONT...AND MAY HAVE MORE
SOLAR HEATING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO PEAK
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH NORTHERN AND COASTAL TEMPS PEAKING IN
THE MID 60S. THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY WILL ALSO
SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
TUESDAY....AGAIN WITH 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS LESS THEN 0.25 INCH.
COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND
6500 FEET LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA...POSSIBLY WITH ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT. THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE INTERIOR LOW LANDS WILL PEAK IN THE LOW 70S ON
TUESDAY AND JUST AROUND 70 ON WEDNESDAY.TJ

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
TRIES TO SLIDE EASTWARD...THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS A FEW SHORTWAVES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY SLOW
THE PROGRESS AS THE TROUGH SLIDES A BIT SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED COOL...AND AT TIMES SHOWERY...CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE CASCADES. HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE A BIT FOR
THE WEEKEND FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER...PERHAPS BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR SUNDAY.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF KMMV...WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY
THROUGH AROUND 08Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CONDITIONS CURRENTLY VFR ALONG THE COAST. MARINE STRATUS LOOKS TO
RETURN TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR CIGS AND VSBY AFTER 06Z.
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY
SOUTH OF KTMK. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TOWARDS VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 08Z AND COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY. /64

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SCA GUSTS OF 25 KT TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. WILL KEEP THE SCA FOR WINDS AS IS...BUT SUSPECT WE
MAY BE ABLE TO DROP IT MONDAY MORNING.

A FRESH SWELL CONTINUES TO BRING SQUARE SEAS TO THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. BUOY 46050 CONTINUES TO SHOW SEAS AROUND 8 FT AT 8
SECONDS WHILE BUOY 46089 CURRENTLY SHOWING 11 FT SEAS AT 13
SECONDS. SUSPECT THAT THE LONGER PERIOD SWELL WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATE PERIOD THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS AS IS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND
REEVALUATE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF SCA WINDS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 7
TO 10 FT THROUGH THE WEEK. A RETURN TO THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
     PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     10 PM PDT THIS EVENING...AND FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 302114
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
214 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES FURTHER INLAND. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO
THE COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY....FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUED COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY....AND POSSIBLY
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW
AND THE NE PACIFIC WILL RESULT IN COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER FOR THE
PORTLAND FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE
CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CASCADES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND DECREASE WEST OF THE CASCADES. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING HEAVY BRIEF DOWNPOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY NEAR 52N 132W...JUST OFF THE B.C. COAST. A WEAK
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NW OREGON LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DISINTEGRATE OVER THE AREA LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR SW WASHINGTON...THE
NORTH OREGON COAST...AND THE NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE AS WELL.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT WITH 24 HOUR TOTALS LESS THAN 0.25
INCH.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE WARM FRONT. SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE THE WARMEST SINCE THEY
WILL NOT LIKELY SEE MUCH IMPACTS FROM THE FRONT...AND MAY HAVE MORE
SOLAR HEATING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO PEAK
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH NORTHERN AND COASTAL TEMPS PEAKING IN
THE MID 60S. THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY WILL ALSO
SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
TUESDAY....AGAIN WITH 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS LESS THEN 0.25 INCH.
COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND
6500 FEET LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA...POSSIBLY WITH ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT. THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE INTERIOR LOW LANDS WILL PEAK IN THE LOW 70S ON
TUESDAY AND JUST AROUND 70 ON WEDNESDAY.TJ

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
TRIES TO SLIDE EASTWARD...THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS A FEW SHORTWAVES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY SLOW
THE PROGRESS AS THE TROUGH SLIDES A BIT SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED COOL...AND AT TIMES SHOWERY...CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE CASCADES. HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE A BIT FOR
THE WEEKEND FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER...PERHAPS BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR SUNDAY.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF KMMV...WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY
THROUGH AROUND 08Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CONDITIONS CURRENTLY VFR ALONG THE COAST. MARINE STRATUS LOOKS TO
RETURN TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR CIGS AND VSBY AFTER 06Z.
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY
SOUTH OF KTMK. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TOWARDS VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 08Z AND COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY. /64

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SCA GUSTS OF 25 KT TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. WILL KEEP THE SCA FOR WINDS AS IS...BUT SUSPECT WE
MAY BE ABLE TO DROP IT MONDAY MORNING.

A FRESH SWELL CONTINUES TO BRING SQUARE SEAS TO THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. BUOY 46050 CONTINUES TO SHOW SEAS AROUND 8 FT AT 8
SECONDS WHILE BUOY 46089 CURRENTLY SHOWING 11 FT SEAS AT 13
SECONDS. SUSPECT THAT THE LONGER PERIOD SWELL WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATE PERIOD THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS AS IS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND
REEVALUATE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF SCA WINDS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 7
TO 10 FT THROUGH THE WEEK. A RETURN TO THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
     PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     10 PM PDT THIS EVENING...AND FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 302043
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
243 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...AFTER A FEW SHOWERS IN NRN-MOST ZONES THIS EVENING...
NO MORE PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY.  COOL UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY THEN 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SO MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY.  ON TUESDAY...EVEN
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS HOLDING STEADY...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK FROM
WESTERLY TO SWLY AND WE EXPECT ANOTHER 5-8 DEGS WARMING. AS FOR MIN
TEMPS...TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
LAST NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGS WARMER
THAN TONIGHT/S MINS.  LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST FROM ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS NOW FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER
OR/WA/ID BORDER FRI AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD PROMOTE EVEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WILDFIRE SMOKE AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING NORTH OF KBKE-KMYL. SURFACE
WINDS...GENERALLY W-NW 5-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...SW 20-30KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA/JC
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 302043
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
243 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...AFTER A FEW SHOWERS IN NRN-MOST ZONES THIS EVENING...
NO MORE PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY.  COOL UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY THEN 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SO MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY.  ON TUESDAY...EVEN
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS HOLDING STEADY...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK FROM
WESTERLY TO SWLY AND WE EXPECT ANOTHER 5-8 DEGS WARMING. AS FOR MIN
TEMPS...TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
LAST NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGS WARMER
THAN TONIGHT/S MINS.  LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST FROM ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS NOW FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER
OR/WA/ID BORDER FRI AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD PROMOTE EVEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WILDFIRE SMOKE AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING NORTH OF KBKE-KMYL. SURFACE
WINDS...GENERALLY W-NW 5-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...SW 20-30KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA/JC
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS66 KMFR 301858
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1158 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...LOCAL OBSERVATIONS, A WELL AS SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY, SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS
THE COASTAL RANGES AND THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO ALL OF THE WEST SIDE AND
THE CASCADES. HOWEVER, THE EAST SIDE WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE,
AS THE MOISTURE SHOULDN`T QUITE MAKE IT ACROSS THE CASCADE CREST.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
AUGUST TODAY. HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS
THIS MORNING TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
UPDATED MODEL TIMING, BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN

MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. -BPN/CC

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A  COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE RIDGES, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST, COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALSO OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE RIDGES NEXT WEEKEND. /CC


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 301858
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1158 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...LOCAL OBSERVATIONS, A WELL AS SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY, SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS
THE COASTAL RANGES AND THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO ALL OF THE WEST SIDE AND
THE CASCADES. HOWEVER, THE EAST SIDE WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE,
AS THE MOISTURE SHOULDN`T QUITE MAKE IT ACROSS THE CASCADE CREST.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
AUGUST TODAY. HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS
THIS MORNING TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
UPDATED MODEL TIMING, BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN

MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. -BPN/CC

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A  COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE RIDGES, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST, COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALSO OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE RIDGES NEXT WEEKEND. /CC


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 301858
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1158 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...LOCAL OBSERVATIONS, A WELL AS SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY, SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS
THE COASTAL RANGES AND THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO ALL OF THE WEST SIDE AND
THE CASCADES. HOWEVER, THE EAST SIDE WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE,
AS THE MOISTURE SHOULDN`T QUITE MAKE IT ACROSS THE CASCADE CREST.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
AUGUST TODAY. HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS
THIS MORNING TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
UPDATED MODEL TIMING, BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN

MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. -BPN/CC

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A  COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE RIDGES, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST, COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALSO OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE RIDGES NEXT WEEKEND. /CC


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 301858
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1158 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...LOCAL OBSERVATIONS, A WELL AS SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY, SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS
THE COASTAL RANGES AND THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO ALL OF THE WEST SIDE AND
THE CASCADES. HOWEVER, THE EAST SIDE WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE,
AS THE MOISTURE SHOULDN`T QUITE MAKE IT ACROSS THE CASCADE CREST.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
AUGUST TODAY. HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS
THIS MORNING TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
UPDATED MODEL TIMING, BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN

MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. -BPN/CC

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A  COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE RIDGES, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST, COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALSO OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE RIDGES NEXT WEEKEND. /CC


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KPDT 301705 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1005 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON. THIS
AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON. AN EARLIER BAND OF SHOWERS HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHEAST WASHINGTON, MEANWHILE ANOTHER BAND IS NOW FORMING FROM
CENTRAL WASHINGTON TO CENTRAL OREGON. AT THIS TIME PRECIP HAS BEEN
SPOTTY WITHIN THIS NEW BAND. STILL EXPECT THIS NEW BAND TO BECOME
MORE CONSOLIDATED AS IT MOVES INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE AFFECTS. THIS PRECIP SHOULD
PERSIST OVER THE BLUES EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
STILL COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM FROM THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD, AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AS
A BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST. THE
BACK EDGE OF THIS PRECIP WILL PASS THROUGH THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES
WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. COOL AIR ALOFT WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. MORNING
UPDATES INVOLVED ADJUSTING PRECIP CHANCES AND AMOUNTS BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. 90

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY PRODUCING BRIEF LIGHT RAIN. CEILINGS WILL STAY ABOVE
MVFR.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 10 KTS OR BELOW
OVERNIGHT. EARLE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AND GIVE US CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. TUESDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE EVENING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE CASCADES BUT OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. ON
THURSDAY, ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE CASCADES, THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. MODELS HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY
SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE OCHOCO-JOHN HIGHLANDS TO WALLOWA COUNTY. BY FRIDAY
THE TROUGH SHIFTS A LITTLE NORTH  AND ON SATURDAY A LITTLE TO THE
EAST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES, THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY
EACH DAY. ON SUNDAY MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVING TO THE
ROCKIES AND OUT OF OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH
MAINLY 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S
WITH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  52  77  54 /  60  10  10   0
ALW  73  56  78  59 /  60  10  10   0
PSC  76  56  81  55 /  50  10  10   0
YKM  74  48  73  47 /  30  10  10  10
HRI  76  53  80  55 /  60  10  10   0
ELN  71  50  74  50 /  40  10  20  20
RDM  65  40  77  42 /  60  10  10   0
LGD  66  46  78  47 /  60  10  10   0
GCD  67  37  81  39 /  40  10  10   0
DLS  73  56  80  60 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/81



000
FXUS66 KPDT 301705 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1005 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON. THIS
AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON. AN EARLIER BAND OF SHOWERS HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHEAST WASHINGTON, MEANWHILE ANOTHER BAND IS NOW FORMING FROM
CENTRAL WASHINGTON TO CENTRAL OREGON. AT THIS TIME PRECIP HAS BEEN
SPOTTY WITHIN THIS NEW BAND. STILL EXPECT THIS NEW BAND TO BECOME
MORE CONSOLIDATED AS IT MOVES INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE AFFECTS. THIS PRECIP SHOULD
PERSIST OVER THE BLUES EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
STILL COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM FROM THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD, AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AS
A BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST. THE
BACK EDGE OF THIS PRECIP WILL PASS THROUGH THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES
WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. COOL AIR ALOFT WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. MORNING
UPDATES INVOLVED ADJUSTING PRECIP CHANCES AND AMOUNTS BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. 90

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY PRODUCING BRIEF LIGHT RAIN. CEILINGS WILL STAY ABOVE
MVFR.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 10 KTS OR BELOW
OVERNIGHT. EARLE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AND GIVE US CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. TUESDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE EVENING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE CASCADES BUT OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. ON
THURSDAY, ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE CASCADES, THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. MODELS HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY
SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE OCHOCO-JOHN HIGHLANDS TO WALLOWA COUNTY. BY FRIDAY
THE TROUGH SHIFTS A LITTLE NORTH  AND ON SATURDAY A LITTLE TO THE
EAST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES, THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY
EACH DAY. ON SUNDAY MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVING TO THE
ROCKIES AND OUT OF OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH
MAINLY 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S
WITH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  52  77  54 /  60  10  10   0
ALW  73  56  78  59 /  60  10  10   0
PSC  76  56  81  55 /  50  10  10   0
YKM  74  48  73  47 /  30  10  10  10
HRI  76  53  80  55 /  60  10  10   0
ELN  71  50  74  50 /  40  10  20  20
RDM  65  40  77  42 /  60  10  10   0
LGD  66  46  78  47 /  60  10  10   0
GCD  67  37  81  39 /  40  10  10   0
DLS  73  56  80  60 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/81



000
FXUS66 KPQR 301640
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
939 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDY AND COOLER WEATHER TODAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACROSS NW OREGON. LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY WILL DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE
FRONT...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT IT IS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS HAVE OBSERVED BETWEEN
0.2 AND 0.5 INCH OF RAIN THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
LESS FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH 6 HOUR TOTALS BETWEEN 0.10 AND
0.30 INCH. 6-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE CASCADES ARE BETWEEN 0.3
AND 0.7 INCH...BUT SEVERAL WEATHER STATIONS IN THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES HAVE MEASURED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN THE PAST 6-HOURS. SHOWERS
WILL BE DECREASING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER
THE CASCADES UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE B.C. COAST THIS MORNING.
THE WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY FOR THE COAST...THE NORTHERN
OREGON COAST RANGE...AND AREAS NORTH OF PORTLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 0.10
INCH. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SW WASHINGTON THE MAIN LOCATION FOR RAIN...THEN IT WILL
MOVE INLAND TUESDAY. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUE)...PATTERN MORE RESEMBLES A
LATE SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER LATE AUGUST. A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRES REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION EARLIER THIS AM...AND IS NOW PUSHING OVER THE CASCADES.
STEADY RAIN GENERALLY EAST OF I5 THIS AM AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT. LIKE USUAL... A COOLER MORE UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL SHIFT INLAND OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS
TODAY...THOUGH BEST THREAT WILL BE OVER WASHINGTON.

COOLEST AIR...WITH -20C OR COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT NEAR 22K FT...
IS JUST OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST. THIS AIR WILL PUSH INTO WASHINGTON
STATE THIS AM...AND OVER FAR NW OREGON. THOUGH TIMING IS NOT MOST
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS N OF A TILLAMOOK TO SCAPPOOSE TO MT ST HELENS
FOR THIS AM. AS AIR MASS BEGINS STABILIZING LATER TODAY... THE
SHOWERS WILL BE DECREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER OREGON.

DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER REGION TONIGHT... BUT SHOWERS WILL BE
RATHER SPARSE AS WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON MON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN LATER MON AND MON NIGHT
AND TUE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT...WITH HIGHS ON THE
COAST IN THE 60S AND INLAND VALLEYS IN LOWER 70S.QUINTON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE PAC NW
COAST THROUGH FRI. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DECENT PIECE OF ENERGY
SWINGING THROUGH AROUND WED OR THU FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...BUT THE TIMING VARIES A BIT. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING IT
MAY DRY OUT AND START TO WARM UP SOME NEXT WEEKEND. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING HAS
MOVED OVER THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL VALLEY.
WILL LIKELY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY UNDER MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS NORTH OF KSLE THROUGH AROUND 19-20Z. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MARINE
STRATUS LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE COAST AFTER 06Z AND WILL LIKELY
BRING MVFR CIGS AND VSBY. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY ALSO
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF KTMK.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE SCATTERED
CU WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. /64

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE EASED ACROSS ALL THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS EXPIRE. FRESH SWELL CONTINUES TO
BRING SQUARE SEAS TO THE WATERS SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS IS. HOWEVER...BUOY 46089 IS STARTING
TO SHOW A LONGER PERIOD SWELL AS THE DOMINATE PERIOD SO WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE HAZARDOUS SEAS ADVISORY EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED.

A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN WATERS FIRST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN AGAIN FROM AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. AS SUCH HAVE
ISSUED A ADVISORY FOR WINDS STARTING THIS EVENING.

SEAS WILL REMAIN 7 TO 10 FEET FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE REGION. IT APPEARS LONGER
PERIOD DISTANT SWELL WILL DOMINATE AFTER TODAY...BUT MAY GET
ADDITIONAL SETS OF SQUARE SEAS/FRESH SWELL AT TIMES. /JBONK/64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
     PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING...AND FROM 4 AM TO
     9 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 301640
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
939 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDY AND COOLER WEATHER TODAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACROSS NW OREGON. LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY WILL DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE
FRONT...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT IT IS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS HAVE OBSERVED BETWEEN
0.2 AND 0.5 INCH OF RAIN THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
LESS FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH 6 HOUR TOTALS BETWEEN 0.10 AND
0.30 INCH. 6-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE CASCADES ARE BETWEEN 0.3
AND 0.7 INCH...BUT SEVERAL WEATHER STATIONS IN THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES HAVE MEASURED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN THE PAST 6-HOURS. SHOWERS
WILL BE DECREASING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER
THE CASCADES UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE B.C. COAST THIS MORNING.
THE WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY FOR THE COAST...THE NORTHERN
OREGON COAST RANGE...AND AREAS NORTH OF PORTLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 0.10
INCH. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SW WASHINGTON THE MAIN LOCATION FOR RAIN...THEN IT WILL
MOVE INLAND TUESDAY. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUE)...PATTERN MORE RESEMBLES A
LATE SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER LATE AUGUST. A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRES REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION EARLIER THIS AM...AND IS NOW PUSHING OVER THE CASCADES.
STEADY RAIN GENERALLY EAST OF I5 THIS AM AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT. LIKE USUAL... A COOLER MORE UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL SHIFT INLAND OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS
TODAY...THOUGH BEST THREAT WILL BE OVER WASHINGTON.

COOLEST AIR...WITH -20C OR COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT NEAR 22K FT...
IS JUST OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST. THIS AIR WILL PUSH INTO WASHINGTON
STATE THIS AM...AND OVER FAR NW OREGON. THOUGH TIMING IS NOT MOST
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS N OF A TILLAMOOK TO SCAPPOOSE TO MT ST HELENS
FOR THIS AM. AS AIR MASS BEGINS STABILIZING LATER TODAY... THE
SHOWERS WILL BE DECREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER OREGON.

DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER REGION TONIGHT... BUT SHOWERS WILL BE
RATHER SPARSE AS WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON MON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN LATER MON AND MON NIGHT
AND TUE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT...WITH HIGHS ON THE
COAST IN THE 60S AND INLAND VALLEYS IN LOWER 70S.QUINTON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE PAC NW
COAST THROUGH FRI. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DECENT PIECE OF ENERGY
SWINGING THROUGH AROUND WED OR THU FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...BUT THE TIMING VARIES A BIT. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING IT
MAY DRY OUT AND START TO WARM UP SOME NEXT WEEKEND. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING HAS
MOVED OVER THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL VALLEY.
WILL LIKELY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY UNDER MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS NORTH OF KSLE THROUGH AROUND 19-20Z. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MARINE
STRATUS LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE COAST AFTER 06Z AND WILL LIKELY
BRING MVFR CIGS AND VSBY. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY ALSO
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF KTMK.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE SCATTERED
CU WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. /64

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE EASED ACROSS ALL THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS EXPIRE. FRESH SWELL CONTINUES TO
BRING SQUARE SEAS TO THE WATERS SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS IS. HOWEVER...BUOY 46089 IS STARTING
TO SHOW A LONGER PERIOD SWELL AS THE DOMINATE PERIOD SO WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE HAZARDOUS SEAS ADVISORY EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED.

A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN WATERS FIRST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN AGAIN FROM AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. AS SUCH HAVE
ISSUED A ADVISORY FOR WINDS STARTING THIS EVENING.

SEAS WILL REMAIN 7 TO 10 FEET FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE REGION. IT APPEARS LONGER
PERIOD DISTANT SWELL WILL DOMINATE AFTER TODAY...BUT MAY GET
ADDITIONAL SETS OF SQUARE SEAS/FRESH SWELL AT TIMES. /JBONK/64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
     PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING...AND FROM 4 AM TO
     9 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301640
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
939 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDY AND COOLER WEATHER TODAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACROSS NW OREGON. LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY WILL DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE
FRONT...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT IT IS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS HAVE OBSERVED BETWEEN
0.2 AND 0.5 INCH OF RAIN THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
LESS FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH 6 HOUR TOTALS BETWEEN 0.10 AND
0.30 INCH. 6-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE CASCADES ARE BETWEEN 0.3
AND 0.7 INCH...BUT SEVERAL WEATHER STATIONS IN THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES HAVE MEASURED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN THE PAST 6-HOURS. SHOWERS
WILL BE DECREASING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER
THE CASCADES UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE B.C. COAST THIS MORNING.
THE WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY FOR THE COAST...THE NORTHERN
OREGON COAST RANGE...AND AREAS NORTH OF PORTLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 0.10
INCH. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SW WASHINGTON THE MAIN LOCATION FOR RAIN...THEN IT WILL
MOVE INLAND TUESDAY. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUE)...PATTERN MORE RESEMBLES A
LATE SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER LATE AUGUST. A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRES REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION EARLIER THIS AM...AND IS NOW PUSHING OVER THE CASCADES.
STEADY RAIN GENERALLY EAST OF I5 THIS AM AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT. LIKE USUAL... A COOLER MORE UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL SHIFT INLAND OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS
TODAY...THOUGH BEST THREAT WILL BE OVER WASHINGTON.

COOLEST AIR...WITH -20C OR COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT NEAR 22K FT...
IS JUST OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST. THIS AIR WILL PUSH INTO WASHINGTON
STATE THIS AM...AND OVER FAR NW OREGON. THOUGH TIMING IS NOT MOST
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS N OF A TILLAMOOK TO SCAPPOOSE TO MT ST HELENS
FOR THIS AM. AS AIR MASS BEGINS STABILIZING LATER TODAY... THE
SHOWERS WILL BE DECREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER OREGON.

DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER REGION TONIGHT... BUT SHOWERS WILL BE
RATHER SPARSE AS WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON MON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN LATER MON AND MON NIGHT
AND TUE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT...WITH HIGHS ON THE
COAST IN THE 60S AND INLAND VALLEYS IN LOWER 70S.QUINTON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE PAC NW
COAST THROUGH FRI. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DECENT PIECE OF ENERGY
SWINGING THROUGH AROUND WED OR THU FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...BUT THE TIMING VARIES A BIT. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING IT
MAY DRY OUT AND START TO WARM UP SOME NEXT WEEKEND. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING HAS
MOVED OVER THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL VALLEY.
WILL LIKELY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY UNDER MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS NORTH OF KSLE THROUGH AROUND 19-20Z. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MARINE
STRATUS LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE COAST AFTER 06Z AND WILL LIKELY
BRING MVFR CIGS AND VSBY. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY ALSO
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF KTMK.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE SCATTERED
CU WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. /64

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE EASED ACROSS ALL THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS EXPIRE. FRESH SWELL CONTINUES TO
BRING SQUARE SEAS TO THE WATERS SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS IS. HOWEVER...BUOY 46089 IS STARTING
TO SHOW A LONGER PERIOD SWELL AS THE DOMINATE PERIOD SO WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE HAZARDOUS SEAS ADVISORY EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED.

A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN WATERS FIRST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN AGAIN FROM AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. AS SUCH HAVE
ISSUED A ADVISORY FOR WINDS STARTING THIS EVENING.

SEAS WILL REMAIN 7 TO 10 FEET FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE REGION. IT APPEARS LONGER
PERIOD DISTANT SWELL WILL DOMINATE AFTER TODAY...BUT MAY GET
ADDITIONAL SETS OF SQUARE SEAS/FRESH SWELL AT TIMES. /JBONK/64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
     PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING...AND FROM 4 AM TO
     9 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 301629
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
929 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON. THIS
AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON. AN EARLIER BAND OF SHOWERS HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHEAST WASHINGTON, MEANWHILE ANOTHER BAND IS NOW FORMING FROM
CENTRAL WASHINGTON TO CENTRAL OREGON. AT THIS TIME PRECIP HAS BEEN
SPOTTY WITHIN THIS NEW BAND. STILL EXPECT THIS NEW BAND TO BECOME
MORE CONSOLIDATED AS IT MOVES INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE AFFECTS. THIS PRECIP SHOULD
PERSIST OVER THE BLUES EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
STILL COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM FROM THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD, AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AS
A BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST. THE
BACK EDGE OF THIS PRECIP WILL PASS THROUGH THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES
WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. COOL AIR ALOFT WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. MORNING
UPDATES INVOLVED ADJUSTING PRECIP CHANCES AND AMOUNTS BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AND GIVE US CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. TUESDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE EVENING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE CASCADES BUT OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. ON
THURSDAY, ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE CASCADES, THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. MODELS HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY
SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE OCHOCO-JOHN HIGHLANDS TO WALLOWA COUNTY. BY FRIDAY
THE TROUGH SHIFTS A LITTLE NORTH  AND ON SATURDAY A LITTLE TO THE
EAST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES, THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY
EACH DAY. ON SUNDAY MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVING TO THE
ROCKIES AND OUT OF OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH
MAINLY 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S
WITH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREVALENT AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SYSTEM CROSSING
THE AREA WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA THIS MORNING ENDING BY 20Z IN
THE WESTERN TAF SITES AND BY 23Z AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BKN TO OVC ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL
TODAY...PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4000 FEET AGL AT KBDN AND KALW. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON
AND POSSIBLY KALW AND KPDT FROM 18Z TO 23Z. DUE TO THE LOW
PROBABILITY OF THIS HAPPENING AT KALW AND KPDT, DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE TAFS. AFTER 00Z SKIES
WILL BECOME SCATTERED ABOVE 6000 FEET AGL THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z AND DROP BELOW 15 KTS BY 05Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  52  77  54 /  60  10  10   0
ALW  73  56  78  59 /  60  10  10   0
PSC  76  56  81  55 /  50  10  10   0
YKM  74  48  73  47 /  30  10  10  10
HRI  76  53  80  55 /  60  10  10   0
ELN  71  50  74  50 /  40  10  20  20
RDM  65  40  77  42 /  60  10  10   0
LGD  66  46  78  47 /  60  10  10   0
GCD  67  37  81  39 /  40  10  10   0
DLS  73  56  80  60 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/81



000
FXUS66 KPDT 301629
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
929 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON. THIS
AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON. AN EARLIER BAND OF SHOWERS HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHEAST WASHINGTON, MEANWHILE ANOTHER BAND IS NOW FORMING FROM
CENTRAL WASHINGTON TO CENTRAL OREGON. AT THIS TIME PRECIP HAS BEEN
SPOTTY WITHIN THIS NEW BAND. STILL EXPECT THIS NEW BAND TO BECOME
MORE CONSOLIDATED AS IT MOVES INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE AFFECTS. THIS PRECIP SHOULD
PERSIST OVER THE BLUES EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
STILL COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM FROM THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD, AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AS
A BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST. THE
BACK EDGE OF THIS PRECIP WILL PASS THROUGH THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES
WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. COOL AIR ALOFT WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. MORNING
UPDATES INVOLVED ADJUSTING PRECIP CHANCES AND AMOUNTS BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AND GIVE US CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. TUESDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE EVENING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE CASCADES BUT OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. ON
THURSDAY, ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE CASCADES, THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. MODELS HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY
SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE OCHOCO-JOHN HIGHLANDS TO WALLOWA COUNTY. BY FRIDAY
THE TROUGH SHIFTS A LITTLE NORTH  AND ON SATURDAY A LITTLE TO THE
EAST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES, THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY
EACH DAY. ON SUNDAY MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVING TO THE
ROCKIES AND OUT OF OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH
MAINLY 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S
WITH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREVALENT AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SYSTEM CROSSING
THE AREA WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA THIS MORNING ENDING BY 20Z IN
THE WESTERN TAF SITES AND BY 23Z AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BKN TO OVC ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL
TODAY...PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4000 FEET AGL AT KBDN AND KALW. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON
AND POSSIBLY KALW AND KPDT FROM 18Z TO 23Z. DUE TO THE LOW
PROBABILITY OF THIS HAPPENING AT KALW AND KPDT, DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE TAFS. AFTER 00Z SKIES
WILL BECOME SCATTERED ABOVE 6000 FEET AGL THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z AND DROP BELOW 15 KTS BY 05Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  52  77  54 /  60  10  10   0
ALW  73  56  78  59 /  60  10  10   0
PSC  76  56  81  55 /  50  10  10   0
YKM  74  48  73  47 /  30  10  10  10
HRI  76  53  80  55 /  60  10  10   0
ELN  71  50  74  50 /  40  10  20  20
RDM  65  40  77  42 /  60  10  10   0
LGD  66  46  78  47 /  60  10  10   0
GCD  67  37  81  39 /  40  10  10   0
DLS  73  56  80  60 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/81




000
FXUS66 KMFR 301541
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
841 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...LOCAL OBSERVATIONS, A WELL AS SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY, SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS
THE COASTAL RANGES AND THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO ALL OF THE WEST SIDE AND
THE CASCADES. HOWEVER, THE EAST SIDE WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE,
AS THE MOISTURE SHOULDN`T QUITE MAKE IT ACROSS THE CASCADE CREST.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
AUGUST TODAY. HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS
THIS MORNING TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
UPDATED MODEL TIMING, BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES
THROUGH THE MORNING. INLAND AREAS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.  ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EAST OF THE COAST MOUNTAINS TO THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY IN
CALIFORNIA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. TONIGHT, MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INLAND. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. -BPN/CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A  COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE RIDGES, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST, COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALSO OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE RIDGES NEXT WEEKEND. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BPN/CC/JRS



000
FXUS66 KMFR 301541
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
841 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...LOCAL OBSERVATIONS, A WELL AS SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY, SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS
THE COASTAL RANGES AND THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO ALL OF THE WEST SIDE AND
THE CASCADES. HOWEVER, THE EAST SIDE WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE,
AS THE MOISTURE SHOULDN`T QUITE MAKE IT ACROSS THE CASCADE CREST.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
AUGUST TODAY. HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS
THIS MORNING TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
UPDATED MODEL TIMING, BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES
THROUGH THE MORNING. INLAND AREAS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.  ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EAST OF THE COAST MOUNTAINS TO THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY IN
CALIFORNIA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. TONIGHT, MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INLAND. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. -BPN/CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A  COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE RIDGES, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST, COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALSO OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE RIDGES NEXT WEEKEND. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BPN/CC/JRS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 301510
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
910 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...PER SATELLITE IMAGERY WE UPDATED TO REMOVE SHOWERS AND
REDUCE SKY COVER FOR THIS MORNING.  LAST NIGHT/S CLOUD AND PCPN IN
IDAHO HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...AND NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
HAS YET TO REACH NRN OREGON ZONES FROM THE WSW.  SKIES CLEARED AND
WINDS DROPPED OFF DURING THE NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP MORE THAN
EXPECTED.  EARLY MORNING TEMPS WERE NEAR 40 IN HARNEY COUNTY/OR...
MID 40S IN BAKER COUNTY...AND MID 50S AT ROME IN SRN MALHEUR COUNTY.
TEMPS DROPPED TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
UPPER 40S AT MCCALL.  THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING MORE
SHOWERS TO NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
NO OTHER UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WILDFIRE SMOKE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF KBKE-
KMYL. SURFACE WINDS...GENERALLY W-NW 5-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...SW 20-30KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM BANNER SUMMIT TO CENTRAL OWYHEE COUNTY AT 3 AM
WILL PUSH EAST AND EXIT THE MAGIC VALLEY/CAMAS PRAIRIE BETWEEN 5
AND 7 AM. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS NE OREGON
THROUGH NOON...SW IDAHO THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...AND THE EASTERN
PAYETTE FOREST UNTIL EARLY EVENING. SO THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT
BRINGS PRECIP FROM THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING...TO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING...WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN 8-18
DEGREES TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS MONDAY THEN
REBOUND BY 2-5 DEGREES OVER IDAHO AND 6-12 OVER OREGON AS HEIGHTS/
THICKNESSES RISE ON WSW FLOW ALOFT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT AS
COLD AS LAST SATURDAY MORNING /22 AUG/ WHEN BURNS OREGON GOT DOWN
TO FREEZING WHILE MOST OF THE AG VALLEY LOWS WERE IN THE 50S. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THROUGHOUT THE AREA LATE EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS
NE OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO ESPECIALLY NEAR ONGOING FIRES.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A COOLING
TREND THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS AGREE
ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING SOUTHWARD OVER THE COAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THEN MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLEST DAYS WILL BE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THERE WILL BE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF OUR AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 301510
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
910 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...PER SATELLITE IMAGERY WE UPDATED TO REMOVE SHOWERS AND
REDUCE SKY COVER FOR THIS MORNING.  LAST NIGHT/S CLOUD AND PCPN IN
IDAHO HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...AND NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
HAS YET TO REACH NRN OREGON ZONES FROM THE WSW.  SKIES CLEARED AND
WINDS DROPPED OFF DURING THE NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP MORE THAN
EXPECTED.  EARLY MORNING TEMPS WERE NEAR 40 IN HARNEY COUNTY/OR...
MID 40S IN BAKER COUNTY...AND MID 50S AT ROME IN SRN MALHEUR COUNTY.
TEMPS DROPPED TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
UPPER 40S AT MCCALL.  THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING MORE
SHOWERS TO NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
NO OTHER UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WILDFIRE SMOKE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF KBKE-
KMYL. SURFACE WINDS...GENERALLY W-NW 5-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...SW 20-30KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM BANNER SUMMIT TO CENTRAL OWYHEE COUNTY AT 3 AM
WILL PUSH EAST AND EXIT THE MAGIC VALLEY/CAMAS PRAIRIE BETWEEN 5
AND 7 AM. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS NE OREGON
THROUGH NOON...SW IDAHO THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...AND THE EASTERN
PAYETTE FOREST UNTIL EARLY EVENING. SO THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT
BRINGS PRECIP FROM THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING...TO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING...WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN 8-18
DEGREES TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS MONDAY THEN
REBOUND BY 2-5 DEGREES OVER IDAHO AND 6-12 OVER OREGON AS HEIGHTS/
THICKNESSES RISE ON WSW FLOW ALOFT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT AS
COLD AS LAST SATURDAY MORNING /22 AUG/ WHEN BURNS OREGON GOT DOWN
TO FREEZING WHILE MOST OF THE AG VALLEY LOWS WERE IN THE 50S. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THROUGHOUT THE AREA LATE EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS
NE OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO ESPECIALLY NEAR ONGOING FIRES.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A COOLING
TREND THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS AGREE
ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING SOUTHWARD OVER THE COAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THEN MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLEST DAYS WILL BE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THERE WILL BE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF OUR AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT



000
FXUS66 KMFR 301311 RRA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
610 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES
THROUGH THE MORNING. INLAND AREAS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.  ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EAST OF THE COAST MOUNTAINS TO THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY IN
CALIFORNIA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. TONIGHT, MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INLAND. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A  COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE RIDGES, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST, COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALSO OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE RIDGES NEXT WEEKEND. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
        PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/02




000
FXUS66 KMFR 301311 RRA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
610 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES
THROUGH THE MORNING. INLAND AREAS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.  ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EAST OF THE COAST MOUNTAINS TO THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY IN
CALIFORNIA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. TONIGHT, MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INLAND. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A  COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE RIDGES, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST, COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALSO OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE RIDGES NEXT WEEKEND. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
        PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/02




000
FXUS66 KMFR 301311 RRA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
610 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES
THROUGH THE MORNING. INLAND AREAS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.  ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EAST OF THE COAST MOUNTAINS TO THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY IN
CALIFORNIA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. TONIGHT, MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INLAND. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A  COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE RIDGES, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST, COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALSO OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE RIDGES NEXT WEEKEND. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
        PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/02




000
FXUS66 KMFR 301311 RRA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
610 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES
THROUGH THE MORNING. INLAND AREAS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.  ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EAST OF THE COAST MOUNTAINS TO THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY IN
CALIFORNIA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. TONIGHT, MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INLAND. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A  COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE RIDGES, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST, COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALSO OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE RIDGES NEXT WEEKEND. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
        PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/02




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