Latest:
 AFDPQR |  AFDPDT |  AFDBOI |  AFDMFR |
  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPDT 232131
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG JET AND VORT CENTER
ROTATING THROUGH THE LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE. THIS
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BASED ON DYNAMICS ALOFT...MAINLY NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. AFTERWARDS LOOKS AS THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MAINLY SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WESTERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A DRYING TREND WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. WITH A COOL AIRMASS
OVERHEAD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S. DRY WESTERLY FLOW
FRIDAY THEN THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN SATURDAY. SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.  94

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON
SUNDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA AND A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT IF ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY AS THE WAVE TRAVELS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SO HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY FAR ENOUGH
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
BUT AGAIN...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 15 MPH.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
CONVECTIVE WEATHER FOR ALL TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS EARLY AS 21Z AT KYKM...KDLS...KRDM AND KBDN. STRONG WIND SHEAR
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD ALSO CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. TAF SITES WILL BE BREEZY WITH WINDS 10-20 KTS
GUSTING 20-30 KTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 03Z AS
CLOUDS BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BUT BREEZY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  78  49  83 /  40  10   0   0
ALW  55  78  54  83 /  40  10   0   0
PSC  56  82  52  85 /  40  10   0   0
YKM  52  77  51  83 /  40  10   0   0
HRI  54  80  51  86 /  40  10   0   0
ELN  50  73  49  80 /  40  10  10  10
RDM  40  73  39  81 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  48  72  43  79 /  30  10   0   0
GCD  46  74  43  82 /  30   0   0   0
DLS  55  76  53  84 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/82/82/84







000
FXUS66 KPDT 232131
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG JET AND VORT CENTER
ROTATING THROUGH THE LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE. THIS
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BASED ON DYNAMICS ALOFT...MAINLY NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. AFTERWARDS LOOKS AS THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MAINLY SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WESTERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A DRYING TREND WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. WITH A COOL AIRMASS
OVERHEAD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S. DRY WESTERLY FLOW
FRIDAY THEN THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN SATURDAY. SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.  94

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON
SUNDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA AND A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT IF ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY AS THE WAVE TRAVELS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SO HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY FAR ENOUGH
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
BUT AGAIN...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 15 MPH.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
CONVECTIVE WEATHER FOR ALL TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS EARLY AS 21Z AT KYKM...KDLS...KRDM AND KBDN. STRONG WIND SHEAR
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD ALSO CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. TAF SITES WILL BE BREEZY WITH WINDS 10-20 KTS
GUSTING 20-30 KTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 03Z AS
CLOUDS BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BUT BREEZY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  78  49  83 /  40  10   0   0
ALW  55  78  54  83 /  40  10   0   0
PSC  56  82  52  85 /  40  10   0   0
YKM  52  77  51  83 /  40  10   0   0
HRI  54  80  51  86 /  40  10   0   0
ELN  50  73  49  80 /  40  10  10  10
RDM  40  73  39  81 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  48  72  43  79 /  30  10   0   0
GCD  46  74  43  82 /  30   0   0   0
DLS  55  76  53  84 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/82/82/84





  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 232124
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
224 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. THE
LOW CENTER WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS STILL CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ONSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING WAS STILL OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SATELLITE
EXTRAPOLATION SHOWS THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND 22Z OR 23Z AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES SHORTLY AFTER THAT. ONCE THE BACK EDGE MOVES THROUGH... WE
WILL SEE SOME BRIEF HEATING DURING WHICH WE WILL SEE OUR HIGH TEMP
FOR THE DAY...AND IF THERE ARE ANY THUNDERSTORMS...TI WILL BE DURING
THAT PERIOD...THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE LOW CENTER ITSELF COMES ONSHORE TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THE MODELS SHOW PART OF THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION ON THE
BACK OR WEST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL SWING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN FORECAST
ZONES FROM ABOUT THE COLUMBIA RIVER OR PORTLAND NORTHWARD OR SO
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME STEADY RAIN
WITH THIS FEATURE...AND ANOTHER SHOT OF DECENT QPF AMOUNTS. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED WITH THIS FEATURE OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST TODAY...SO WILL KEEP SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
NORTH COAST TONIGHT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ONSHORE.

THE LOW MOVES OUT TO THE EAST PRETTY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS IN THE NORTH FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD BEING
SLOW TO CLEAR. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL START TO REBOUND SOME THURSDAY
AND GET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WARMEST SOUTH.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH INITIALLY QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO
MOVE IN FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME
MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80
AGAIN INLAND. THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST ON SATURDAY AS 500
MB HEIGHTS BUILD INTO AT LEAST THE MID 580S...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING
CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE NORTH. LOOK FOR INLAND HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 80S
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 90 IN SOME AREAS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE
SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE
LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION.  THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN
THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM
OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...THE MAIN FRONTAL LINE CONTINUES TO PUSH ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CIGS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BEHIND THE
LINE...THE COASTAL AREAS HAVE BECOME VFR WITH A SCATTERED LAYER
AROUND 3000 FT AND ANOTHER ABOVE 5000 FT. GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST NEAR KONP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS OF 21Z CIGS ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY HAVE FOLLOWED
SUIT WITH A FEW LOCAL MVFR POCKETS REMAINING UNDER HEAVIER RAIN.
GIVEN THIS CLEARING OCCURRING...THREAT FOR FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE CONCERNING TIMING OR
LOCATION TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. THEN AS LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE
LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
AROUND 06Z AT THE COAST. EXPECT CIGS AROUND 2500-3500 FT AFT 10Z
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
WITH CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS LIKELY ARRIVES
AROUND 12Z AS LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.   CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TODAY AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS TOWARDS THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING AS GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT OVER THE
WATERS WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEP AT
TIMES AS DOMINANT PERIODS ARE AROUND 7 SECONDS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
WATERS REACHING HAZARDOUS SEAS CRITERIA AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
MONITOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT LATER THU...BEFORE HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER
NE PAC AND A THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN
SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...FOR FRI
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 232124
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
224 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. THE
LOW CENTER WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS STILL CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ONSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING WAS STILL OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SATELLITE
EXTRAPOLATION SHOWS THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND 22Z OR 23Z AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES SHORTLY AFTER THAT. ONCE THE BACK EDGE MOVES THROUGH... WE
WILL SEE SOME BRIEF HEATING DURING WHICH WE WILL SEE OUR HIGH TEMP
FOR THE DAY...AND IF THERE ARE ANY THUNDERSTORMS...TI WILL BE DURING
THAT PERIOD...THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE LOW CENTER ITSELF COMES ONSHORE TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THE MODELS SHOW PART OF THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION ON THE
BACK OR WEST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL SWING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN FORECAST
ZONES FROM ABOUT THE COLUMBIA RIVER OR PORTLAND NORTHWARD OR SO
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME STEADY RAIN
WITH THIS FEATURE...AND ANOTHER SHOT OF DECENT QPF AMOUNTS. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED WITH THIS FEATURE OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST TODAY...SO WILL KEEP SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
NORTH COAST TONIGHT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ONSHORE.

THE LOW MOVES OUT TO THE EAST PRETTY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS IN THE NORTH FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD BEING
SLOW TO CLEAR. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL START TO REBOUND SOME THURSDAY
AND GET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WARMEST SOUTH.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH INITIALLY QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO
MOVE IN FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME
MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80
AGAIN INLAND. THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST ON SATURDAY AS 500
MB HEIGHTS BUILD INTO AT LEAST THE MID 580S...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING
CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE NORTH. LOOK FOR INLAND HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 80S
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 90 IN SOME AREAS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE
SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE
LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION.  THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN
THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM
OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...THE MAIN FRONTAL LINE CONTINUES TO PUSH ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CIGS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BEHIND THE
LINE...THE COASTAL AREAS HAVE BECOME VFR WITH A SCATTERED LAYER
AROUND 3000 FT AND ANOTHER ABOVE 5000 FT. GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST NEAR KONP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS OF 21Z CIGS ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY HAVE FOLLOWED
SUIT WITH A FEW LOCAL MVFR POCKETS REMAINING UNDER HEAVIER RAIN.
GIVEN THIS CLEARING OCCURRING...THREAT FOR FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE CONCERNING TIMING OR
LOCATION TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. THEN AS LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE
LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
AROUND 06Z AT THE COAST. EXPECT CIGS AROUND 2500-3500 FT AFT 10Z
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
WITH CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS LIKELY ARRIVES
AROUND 12Z AS LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.   CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TODAY AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS TOWARDS THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING AS GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT OVER THE
WATERS WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEP AT
TIMES AS DOMINANT PERIODS ARE AROUND 7 SECONDS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
WATERS REACHING HAZARDOUS SEAS CRITERIA AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
MONITOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT LATER THU...BEFORE HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER
NE PAC AND A THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN
SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...FOR FRI
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMFR 232113
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
213 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
OUR AREA QUICKLY FELL APART AS IT ENCOUNTERED THE CASCADES, WHICH
WAS EXPECTED. NOW SHOWERS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AS
DEEP, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
OBSERVATIONS SITES CONTINUE TO SHOW MEASURABLE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST AND THE UMPQUA, BUT FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ROGUE, SHOWERS ARE
MUCH SPOTTIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE ISN`T MUCH INSTABILITY LEFT AS THE MAIN BULK OF
THE DYNAMICS AND COLD AIR ALOFT ARE WELL TO OUR NORTH, BUT WE
COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING OVER THE
EAST SIDE. YESTERDAY`S LIGHTNING RESULTED IN A LOT OF FIRE STARTS
OVER NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES, AND EVEN THOUGH
HUMIDITIES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY LOW, GUSTY WINDS COULD CAUSE ANY
REMAINING FIRES TO SPREAD. WE HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT
FOR THIS REASON AND THAT LASTS THROUGH THE EVENING.

SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT, AND IT WILL BE A RATHER
COOL NIGHT FOR JULY AREA WIDE. DUE TO ALL THE MOISTURE, WE MAY
SEE SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
TONIGHT, BUT NIGHTS ARE SHORT AND DIDN`T FEEL IT WAS WORTH
PUTTING IN THE GRIDS.

THE UPPER LOW THAT CAUSED ALL THIS WEATHER WILL ZIP EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES PRETTY QUICKLY TOMORROW. AS A RESULT, WE WILL
WARM UP AND DRY OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TOMORROW, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WE WILL BE RIGHT BACK
TO NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COOS COAST AND OVER THE WATERS, AND HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL ALL LOCATIONS. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL
BE AROUND 100F IN MEDFORD OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS
LIKE MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (102F IN
MEDFORD, FOR EXAMPLE).

THE MODELS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF DISTURBANCES MOVING UP THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY PRESENT OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS LITTLE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES, SO ATTEMPTING TO NAIL DOWN
SPECIFICS WOULD BE FUTILE. THUS WE SIMPLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS PAINTED ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. THERE IS CONSISTENCY
IS THE IDEA OF IT STAYING RATHER HOT NEXT WEEK, THOUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/18Z TAFS...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW HAVE BROUGHT A COMBINATION OF MVFR
CEILINGS...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...AND GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE COAST WILL
LOWER TO IFR TONIGHT...WHILE MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ON WEST FACING SLOPES...AND THEN DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. GUSTY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BECOME VFR UNDER A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND
WARMER AIR MASS. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 205 PM PDT 23 JULY 2014...A THERMAL TROUGH WILL
RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY THEN LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. THE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AT THE COAST THURSDAY WITH
GALES DEVELOPING IN THE OUTER WATERS QUICKLY BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INLAND SUNDAY WITH THE THERMAL
TROUGH WEAKENING...RESULTING IN DECREASED WINDS AND WIND WAVES INTO
HE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 232040
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
240 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT STRONG STORMS
/POSSIBLE A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS WELL/ THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH...WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS ALONG OUR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE...AT 20Z...IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
OREGON AND HAS ALREADY INITIATED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OREGON. EXPECT THIS SHORTWAVE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON BETWEEN 23Z-01Z INTO NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO
BETWEEN 00Z-03Z. THERE IS ALREADY STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR AND CLOSE TO
500 J/KG MU CAPE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SUGGEST STRONG
STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. GIVEN A SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER AND PLENTY OF SURFACE HEATING FROM BAKER CITY TO
MCCALL...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
CELLS. MUCH COLDER...DRIER AND BREEZY ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONT REACHES BAKER AROUND 01Z
TONIGHT...BOISE AROUND 05Z TONIGHT AND TWIN FALLS AROUND 09Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT
AND REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS SW IDAHO THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY REMAINS ABOUT 4-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH SATURDAY THEN FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL REESTABLISH AND RIDGE
OVER PACNW WILL BE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR REST OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.  TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND
THEN RETURN TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY...TEMPS WILL
REMAIN 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY.  AS FOR
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...ZONAL FLOW IS DRY AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN BRINGING SOME MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA MONDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY...SO WILL STAY WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND KEEP A MENTION OF
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...PARTLY CLOUDY EXCEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LINE FROM KBNO TO KBOI...UNTIL 03Z OREGON
AND 06Z IDAHO WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 10
TO 15 WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS...WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KTS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. FRONT NEAR KBNO AT 00Z...KTWF 08Z. WINDS ALOFT
SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT IDZ401-402.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JDS/LC
LONG TERM....RD/AB
AVIATION.....RD



000
FXUS65 KBOI 232040
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
240 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT STRONG STORMS
/POSSIBLE A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS WELL/ THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH...WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS ALONG OUR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE...AT 20Z...IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
OREGON AND HAS ALREADY INITIATED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OREGON. EXPECT THIS SHORTWAVE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON BETWEEN 23Z-01Z INTO NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO
BETWEEN 00Z-03Z. THERE IS ALREADY STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR AND CLOSE TO
500 J/KG MU CAPE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SUGGEST STRONG
STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. GIVEN A SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER AND PLENTY OF SURFACE HEATING FROM BAKER CITY TO
MCCALL...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
CELLS. MUCH COLDER...DRIER AND BREEZY ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONT REACHES BAKER AROUND 01Z
TONIGHT...BOISE AROUND 05Z TONIGHT AND TWIN FALLS AROUND 09Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT
AND REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS SW IDAHO THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY REMAINS ABOUT 4-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH SATURDAY THEN FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL REESTABLISH AND RIDGE
OVER PACNW WILL BE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR REST OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.  TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND
THEN RETURN TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY...TEMPS WILL
REMAIN 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY.  AS FOR
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...ZONAL FLOW IS DRY AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN BRINGING SOME MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA MONDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY...SO WILL STAY WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND KEEP A MENTION OF
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...PARTLY CLOUDY EXCEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LINE FROM KBNO TO KBOI...UNTIL 03Z OREGON
AND 06Z IDAHO WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 10
TO 15 WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS...WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KTS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. FRONT NEAR KBNO AT 00Z...KTWF 08Z. WINDS ALOFT
SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT IDZ401-402.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JDS/LC
LONG TERM....RD/AB
AVIATION.....RD




000
FXUS66 KPDT 231730 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND IS PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND WESTERN OREGON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES. VORT CENTER AND JET MOVING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WITH HAIL AND WIND. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
LATER TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. 94

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 21Z AT
KYKM...KDLS...KRDM AND KBDN. STRONG WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY COULD ALSO CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. TAF SITES WILL BE BREEZY WITH WINDS 10-20 KTS GUSTING 20-30
KTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 03Z AS CLOUDS BECOME
MORE SCATTERED AND PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THURSDAY
WILL BE DRY BUT BREEZY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS.  82

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 437 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
DECREASED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. IR SATELLITE INDICATES THAT THE
COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND AN OFFSHORE UPPER
LEVEL LOW INTO EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP MOIST UNSTABLE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON...THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MIX TO THE SURFACE. A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS
WIND. 76

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEST FLOW WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS A FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS.  FLOW
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO BE SOUTHERLY...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS DON`T PUT OUT
TO MUCH QPF WITH THIS MOISTURE...SO HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IS
OVER CENTRAL OREGON ON MONDAY AND WILL SPREAD TO NORTHEAST OREGON AS
WELL TUESDAY ONWARD.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY HOT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  81  53  79  51 /  40  30  10   0
ALW  84  57  78  57 /  40  30  10   0
PSC  85  59  82  54 /  30  30  10   0
YKM  77  53  78  54 /  50  30  10  10
HRI  83  56  80  53 /  30  20  10   0
ELN  74  51  74  52 /  60  30  10  10
RDM  73  38  74  39 /  40  20   0  10
LGD  82  50  72  45 /  40  30  10   0
GCD  81  49  75  48 /  30  20   0   0
DLS  73  57  77  56 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 231730 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND IS PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND WESTERN OREGON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES. VORT CENTER AND JET MOVING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WITH HAIL AND WIND. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
LATER TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. 94

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 21Z AT
KYKM...KDLS...KRDM AND KBDN. STRONG WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY COULD ALSO CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. TAF SITES WILL BE BREEZY WITH WINDS 10-20 KTS GUSTING 20-30
KTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 03Z AS CLOUDS BECOME
MORE SCATTERED AND PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THURSDAY
WILL BE DRY BUT BREEZY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS.  82

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 437 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
DECREASED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. IR SATELLITE INDICATES THAT THE
COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND AN OFFSHORE UPPER
LEVEL LOW INTO EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP MOIST UNSTABLE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON...THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MIX TO THE SURFACE. A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS
WIND. 76

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEST FLOW WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS A FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS.  FLOW
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO BE SOUTHERLY...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS DON`T PUT OUT
TO MUCH QPF WITH THIS MOISTURE...SO HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IS
OVER CENTRAL OREGON ON MONDAY AND WILL SPREAD TO NORTHEAST OREGON AS
WELL TUESDAY ONWARD.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY HOT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  81  53  79  51 /  40  30  10   0
ALW  84  57  78  57 /  40  30  10   0
PSC  85  59  82  54 /  30  30  10   0
YKM  77  53  78  54 /  50  30  10  10
HRI  83  56  80  53 /  30  20  10   0
ELN  74  51  74  52 /  60  30  10  10
RDM  73  38  74  39 /  40  20   0  10
LGD  82  50  72  45 /  40  30  10   0
GCD  81  49  75  48 /  30  20   0   0
DLS  73  57  77  56 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/







000
FXUS66 KPQR 231642 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
937 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE
LOW CENTER WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...THAT MAY NOT MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES UNTIL LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE AT THE COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE...WITH AROUND AN INCH
NEAR TILLAMOOK AND HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH IN THE COAST RANGE.
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS IN THE VALLEY...BUT MAY PUSH A HALF INCH IN
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK UP BEHIND
IT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY DEVELOPING WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY SHOWERS.
TEMPS TODAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...DOING SO LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW CENTER COMES ONSHORE TONIGHT...AND THE MODELS SHOW PART OF
THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION SWINGING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES FROM
ABOUT THE COLUMBIA RIVER OR SO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
WITH SOME POSSIBLY STEADY RAIN AND ANOTHER SHOT OF DECENT QPF
AMOUNTS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THIS IN THE MORNING PACKAGE.

THE LOW MOVES OUT TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH FROM ABOUT SALEM SOUTH BEING SLOW TO CLEAR THURSDAY...AND A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL
START TO REBOUND AND GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE IN
FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME MORNING
CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80 AGAIN.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS AMPLIFYING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS A
LINE OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE VALLEY WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500
FT AND 3500 FT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR IN THE COMING HOURS AS
RAIN PUSHES THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH LOCAL IFR AT TIMES WITH HEAVIER
RAIN. MEANWHILE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PINPOINT TIMING OR LOCATION
IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS PROBABLY REMAIN MVFR
OR WORSE ALONG THE COAST WED NIGHT...THOUGH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR STARTING AROUND 03Z WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
WITH CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. NEXT LINE OF RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND
16Z WITH CONTINUED RAIN AT TIMES TODAY. ABOUT 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL OR OPS AREA TODAY THROUGH 03Z.
CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WATERS AND INCREASED PRES GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OREGON WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. PROBABLY WILL SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT S OF CASCADE HEAD AND OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND
ADVISORY SOUTHWARD. SEAS MAY BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY...TO AROUND 5 TO 7
FT AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEP WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AT 9 SECONDS.

LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW
PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231642 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
937 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE
LOW CENTER WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...THAT MAY NOT MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES UNTIL LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE AT THE COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE...WITH AROUND AN INCH
NEAR TILLAMOOK AND HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH IN THE COAST RANGE.
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS IN THE VALLEY...BUT MAY PUSH A HALF INCH IN
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK UP BEHIND
IT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY DEVELOPING WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY SHOWERS.
TEMPS TODAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...DOING SO LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW CENTER COMES ONSHORE TONIGHT...AND THE MODELS SHOW PART OF
THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION SWINGING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES FROM
ABOUT THE COLUMBIA RIVER OR SO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
WITH SOME POSSIBLY STEADY RAIN AND ANOTHER SHOT OF DECENT QPF
AMOUNTS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THIS IN THE MORNING PACKAGE.

THE LOW MOVES OUT TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH FROM ABOUT SALEM SOUTH BEING SLOW TO CLEAR THURSDAY...AND A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL
START TO REBOUND AND GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE IN
FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME MORNING
CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80 AGAIN.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS AMPLIFYING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS A
LINE OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE VALLEY WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500
FT AND 3500 FT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR IN THE COMING HOURS AS
RAIN PUSHES THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH LOCAL IFR AT TIMES WITH HEAVIER
RAIN. MEANWHILE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PINPOINT TIMING OR LOCATION
IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS PROBABLY REMAIN MVFR
OR WORSE ALONG THE COAST WED NIGHT...THOUGH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR STARTING AROUND 03Z WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
WITH CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. NEXT LINE OF RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND
16Z WITH CONTINUED RAIN AT TIMES TODAY. ABOUT 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL OR OPS AREA TODAY THROUGH 03Z.
CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WATERS AND INCREASED PRES GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OREGON WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. PROBABLY WILL SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT S OF CASCADE HEAD AND OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND
ADVISORY SOUTHWARD. SEAS MAY BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY...TO AROUND 5 TO 7
FT AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEP WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AT 9 SECONDS.

LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW
PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231642 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
937 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE
LOW CENTER WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...THAT MAY NOT MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES UNTIL LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE AT THE COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE...WITH AROUND AN INCH
NEAR TILLAMOOK AND HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH IN THE COAST RANGE.
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS IN THE VALLEY...BUT MAY PUSH A HALF INCH IN
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK UP BEHIND
IT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY DEVELOPING WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY SHOWERS.
TEMPS TODAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...DOING SO LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW CENTER COMES ONSHORE TONIGHT...AND THE MODELS SHOW PART OF
THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION SWINGING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES FROM
ABOUT THE COLUMBIA RIVER OR SO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
WITH SOME POSSIBLY STEADY RAIN AND ANOTHER SHOT OF DECENT QPF
AMOUNTS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THIS IN THE MORNING PACKAGE.

THE LOW MOVES OUT TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH FROM ABOUT SALEM SOUTH BEING SLOW TO CLEAR THURSDAY...AND A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL
START TO REBOUND AND GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE IN
FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME MORNING
CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80 AGAIN.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS AMPLIFYING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS A
LINE OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE VALLEY WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500
FT AND 3500 FT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR IN THE COMING HOURS AS
RAIN PUSHES THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH LOCAL IFR AT TIMES WITH HEAVIER
RAIN. MEANWHILE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PINPOINT TIMING OR LOCATION
IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS PROBABLY REMAIN MVFR
OR WORSE ALONG THE COAST WED NIGHT...THOUGH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR STARTING AROUND 03Z WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
WITH CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. NEXT LINE OF RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND
16Z WITH CONTINUED RAIN AT TIMES TODAY. ABOUT 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL OR OPS AREA TODAY THROUGH 03Z.
CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WATERS AND INCREASED PRES GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OREGON WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. PROBABLY WILL SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT S OF CASCADE HEAD AND OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND
ADVISORY SOUTHWARD. SEAS MAY BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY...TO AROUND 5 TO 7
FT AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEP WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AT 9 SECONDS.

LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW
PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231642 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
937 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE
LOW CENTER WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...THAT MAY NOT MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES UNTIL LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE AT THE COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE...WITH AROUND AN INCH
NEAR TILLAMOOK AND HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH IN THE COAST RANGE.
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS IN THE VALLEY...BUT MAY PUSH A HALF INCH IN
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK UP BEHIND
IT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY DEVELOPING WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY SHOWERS.
TEMPS TODAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...DOING SO LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW CENTER COMES ONSHORE TONIGHT...AND THE MODELS SHOW PART OF
THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION SWINGING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES FROM
ABOUT THE COLUMBIA RIVER OR SO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
WITH SOME POSSIBLY STEADY RAIN AND ANOTHER SHOT OF DECENT QPF
AMOUNTS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THIS IN THE MORNING PACKAGE.

THE LOW MOVES OUT TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH FROM ABOUT SALEM SOUTH BEING SLOW TO CLEAR THURSDAY...AND A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL
START TO REBOUND AND GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE IN
FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME MORNING
CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80 AGAIN.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS AMPLIFYING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS A
LINE OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE VALLEY WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500
FT AND 3500 FT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR IN THE COMING HOURS AS
RAIN PUSHES THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH LOCAL IFR AT TIMES WITH HEAVIER
RAIN. MEANWHILE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PINPOINT TIMING OR LOCATION
IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS PROBABLY REMAIN MVFR
OR WORSE ALONG THE COAST WED NIGHT...THOUGH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR STARTING AROUND 03Z WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
WITH CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. NEXT LINE OF RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND
16Z WITH CONTINUED RAIN AT TIMES TODAY. ABOUT 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL OR OPS AREA TODAY THROUGH 03Z.
CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WATERS AND INCREASED PRES GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OREGON WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. PROBABLY WILL SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT S OF CASCADE HEAD AND OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND
ADVISORY SOUTHWARD. SEAS MAY BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY...TO AROUND 5 TO 7
FT AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEP WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AT 9 SECONDS.

LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW
PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231637
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
937 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE
LOW CENTER WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...THAT MAY NOT MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES UNTIL LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE AT THE COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE...WITH AROUND AN INCH
NEAR TILLAMOOK AND HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH IN THE COAST RANGE.
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS IN THE VALLEY...BUT MAY PUSH A HALF INCH IN
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK UP BEHIND
IT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY DEVELOPING WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY SHOWERS.
TEMPS TODAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...DOING SO LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW CENTER COMES ONSHORE TONIGHT...AND THE MODELS SHOW PART OF
THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION SWINGING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES FROM
ABOUT THE COLUMBIA RIVER OR SO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
WITH SOME POSSIBLY STEADY RAIN AND ANOTHER SHOT OF DECENT QPF
AMOUNTS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THIS IN THE MORNING PACKAGE.

THE LOW MOVES OUT TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH FROM ABOUT SALEM SOUTH BEING SLOW TO CLEAR THURSDAY...AND A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL
START TO REBOUND AND GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE IN
FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME MORNING
CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80 AGAIN.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS AMPLIFYING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS A
LINE OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE VALLEY WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500
FT AND 3500 FT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR IN THE COMING HOURS AS
RAIN PUSHES THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH LOCAL IFR AT TIMES WITH HEAVIER
RAIN. MEANWHILE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PINPOINT TIMING OR LOCATION
IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS PROBABLY REMAIN MVFR
OR WORSE ALONG THE COAST WED NIGHT...THOUGH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR STARTING AROUND 03Z WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
WITH CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. NEXT LINE OF RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND
16Z WITH CONTINUED RAIN AT TIMES TODAY. ABOUT 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL OR OPS AREA TODAY THROUGH 03Z.
CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WATERS AND INCREASED PRES GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OREGON WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. PROBABLY WILL SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT S OF CASCADE HEAD AND OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND
ADVISORY SOUTHWARD. SEAS MAY BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY...TO AROUND 5 TO 7
FT AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEP WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AT 9 SECONDS.

LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW
PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231637
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
937 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE
LOW CENTER WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...THAT MAY NOT MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES UNTIL LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE AT THE COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE...WITH AROUND AN INCH
NEAR TILLAMOOK AND HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH IN THE COAST RANGE.
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS IN THE VALLEY...BUT MAY PUSH A HALF INCH IN
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK UP BEHIND
IT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY DEVELOPING WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY SHOWERS.
TEMPS TODAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...DOING SO LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW CENTER COMES ONSHORE TONIGHT...AND THE MODELS SHOW PART OF
THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION SWINGING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES FROM
ABOUT THE COLUMBIA RIVER OR SO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
WITH SOME POSSIBLY STEADY RAIN AND ANOTHER SHOT OF DECENT QPF
AMOUNTS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THIS IN THE MORNING PACKAGE.

THE LOW MOVES OUT TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH FROM ABOUT SALEM SOUTH BEING SLOW TO CLEAR THURSDAY...AND A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL
START TO REBOUND AND GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE IN
FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME MORNING
CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80 AGAIN.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS AMPLIFYING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS A
LINE OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE VALLEY WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500
FT AND 3500 FT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR IN THE COMING HOURS AS
RAIN PUSHES THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH LOCAL IFR AT TIMES WITH HEAVIER
RAIN. MEANWHILE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PINPOINT TIMING OR LOCATION
IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS PROBABLY REMAIN MVFR
OR WORSE ALONG THE COAST WED NIGHT...THOUGH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR STARTING AROUND 03Z WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
WITH CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. NEXT LINE OF RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND
16Z WITH CONTINUED RAIN AT TIMES TODAY. ABOUT 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL OR OPS AREA TODAY THROUGH 03Z.
CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WATERS AND INCREASED PRES GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OREGON WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. PROBABLY WILL SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT S OF CASCADE HEAD AND OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND
ADVISORY SOUTHWARD. SEAS MAY BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY...TO AROUND 5 TO 7
FT AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEP WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AT 9 SECONDS.

LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW
PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231637
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
937 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE
LOW CENTER WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...THAT MAY NOT MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES UNTIL LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE AT THE COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE...WITH AROUND AN INCH
NEAR TILLAMOOK AND HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH IN THE COAST RANGE.
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS IN THE VALLEY...BUT MAY PUSH A HALF INCH IN
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK UP BEHIND
IT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY DEVELOPING WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY SHOWERS.
TEMPS TODAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...DOING SO LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW CENTER COMES ONSHORE TONIGHT...AND THE MODELS SHOW PART OF
THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION SWINGING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES FROM
ABOUT THE COLUMBIA RIVER OR SO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
WITH SOME POSSIBLY STEADY RAIN AND ANOTHER SHOT OF DECENT QPF
AMOUNTS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THIS IN THE MORNING PACKAGE.

THE LOW MOVES OUT TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH FROM ABOUT SALEM SOUTH BEING SLOW TO CLEAR THURSDAY...AND A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL
START TO REBOUND AND GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE IN
FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME MORNING
CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80 AGAIN.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS AMPLIFYING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS A
LINE OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE VALLEY WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500
FT AND 3500 FT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR IN THE COMING HOURS AS
RAIN PUSHES THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH LOCAL IFR AT TIMES WITH HEAVIER
RAIN. MEANWHILE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PINPOINT TIMING OR LOCATION
IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS PROBABLY REMAIN MVFR
OR WORSE ALONG THE COAST WED NIGHT...THOUGH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR STARTING AROUND 03Z WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
WITH CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. NEXT LINE OF RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND
16Z WITH CONTINUED RAIN AT TIMES TODAY. ABOUT 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL OR OPS AREA TODAY THROUGH 03Z.
CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WATERS AND INCREASED PRES GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OREGON WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. PROBABLY WILL SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT S OF CASCADE HEAD AND OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND
ADVISORY SOUTHWARD. SEAS MAY BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY...TO AROUND 5 TO 7
FT AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEP WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AT 9 SECONDS.

LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW
PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231637
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
937 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE
LOW CENTER WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...THAT MAY NOT MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES UNTIL LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE AT THE COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE...WITH AROUND AN INCH
NEAR TILLAMOOK AND HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH IN THE COAST RANGE.
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS IN THE VALLEY...BUT MAY PUSH A HALF INCH IN
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK UP BEHIND
IT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY DEVELOPING WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY SHOWERS.
TEMPS TODAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...DOING SO LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW CENTER COMES ONSHORE TONIGHT...AND THE MODELS SHOW PART OF
THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION SWINGING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES FROM
ABOUT THE COLUMBIA RIVER OR SO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
WITH SOME POSSIBLY STEADY RAIN AND ANOTHER SHOT OF DECENT QPF
AMOUNTS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THIS IN THE MORNING PACKAGE.

THE LOW MOVES OUT TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH FROM ABOUT SALEM SOUTH BEING SLOW TO CLEAR THURSDAY...AND A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL
START TO REBOUND AND GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE IN
FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME MORNING
CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80 AGAIN.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS AMPLIFYING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS A
LINE OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE VALLEY WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500
FT AND 3500 FT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR IN THE COMING HOURS AS
RAIN PUSHES THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH LOCAL IFR AT TIMES WITH HEAVIER
RAIN. MEANWHILE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PINPOINT TIMING OR LOCATION
IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS PROBABLY REMAIN MVFR
OR WORSE ALONG THE COAST WED NIGHT...THOUGH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR STARTING AROUND 03Z WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
WITH CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. NEXT LINE OF RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND
16Z WITH CONTINUED RAIN AT TIMES TODAY. ABOUT 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL OR OPS AREA TODAY THROUGH 03Z.
CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WATERS AND INCREASED PRES GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OREGON WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. PROBABLY WILL SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT S OF CASCADE HEAD AND OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND
ADVISORY SOUTHWARD. SEAS MAY BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY...TO AROUND 5 TO 7
FT AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEP WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AT 9 SECONDS.

LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW
PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 231548
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
848 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...ALREADY MADE A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO RAISE
POPS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BAND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA RIGHT
NOW AND AM PLANNING TO UPDATE THE REST OF TODAY SHORTLY. THERE IS
A POTENT UPPER LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST RIGHT NOW, AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG THE
PACNW COAST. THE MAIN RAIN BAND CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM AROUND
ROSEBURG SOUTH THROUGH JOSEPHINE COUNTY AND IS MOVING EAST AT
AROUND 20 MPH WHICH PUTS IT AT MEDFORD AROUND 930 AM. WHILE THE
MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT FALLING APART PRIOR TO REACHING MEDFORD,
RADAR DOESN`T SUGGEST THAT, SO WE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN THIS
MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, IT WILL BECOME SHOWERY.
MOST OF THE INSTABILITY IS WELL NORTH OF US, BUT WE COULD SEE A
LIGHTNING STRIKE HERE OR THERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. AT ANY RATE, IT WILL BE QUITE COOL AND DAMP FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR TODAY.

I DO THINK THE FRONT (OR AT LEAST ITS PRECIPITATION) WILL FALL
APART AS IT IS CROSSES OVER TO THE EAST SIDE, BUT IT WILL STILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY EAST OF THE CASCADES. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MUCH SPOTTIER OVER THERE, BUT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NORTH. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/12Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT THE COAST WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
WILL PERSIST AT THE COAST UNTIL AROUND 18Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INLAND THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CEILINGS TRANSITIONING TO AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS...MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST. AS THE COLD FRONT
TRACKS INLAND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AREA EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY TODAY. BUT, THIS FRONT WILL ALSO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS...TO 35 KT EAST OF THE CASCADES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS WILL RISE AND THEN
DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING, EXCEPT FOR COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. /DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A FRONT INLAND
TODAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND MOVES ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT FROM
THE CASCADES EASTWARD. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT INLAND
TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SO EXPECT CONTINUED COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS ON THURSDAY. ALONG THE
COAST, A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND STRENGTHENS FRIDAY
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TO THE COAST AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY.

TODAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO SPREAD
INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES
EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF AND
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO HELP TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PUSH INLAND TODAY
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LIFTED
INDICES AND CAPE ARE RELATIVELY WEAK THOUGH SO EXPECT MAINLY
ISOLATED STORMS. A FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
CASCADES IN OREGON EXTENDING EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.

ALSO WITH THIS FRONT, SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE CASCADES TODAY. MODELS AND GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES LOWERING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN THE LOWER 50S FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS. DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR INLAND
AREAS BUT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA. A MILD
CHETCO EFFECT MAY BE FELT AT BROOKINGS AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP DUE TO A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING ALONG THE COAST.

BY FRIDAY, EXPECT A RETURN TO NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION AND A THERMAL STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST.

LONG TERM...THEN HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. ALSO A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
MAY MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY. HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HOWEVER,  IF FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY, MAY NEED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
INLAND AREAS, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN OREGON AND ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 23 JULY 2014...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WET COLD FRONT, AND
ALSO HIGH IN A CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN TO FOLLOW. A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY THEN LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST RELATES TO THE STRENGTH OF NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SPECIFICALLY HOW FAR TO
THE NORTH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND AND WHETHER
WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO WILL REACH GALE
FORCE. THE 00Z GFS MODEL IS STRONGER THAN THE NAM WITH WINDS NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO WHILE MAINTAINING ITS NORMAL BIAS OF NOT BRINGING
THE STRONG NORTHERLIES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST. A MODEL BLEND
WAS UTILIZED. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WITHIN 5 NM OF THE COAST WHILE WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW GALE FORCE ON
THURSDAY BUT THEN A BIT STRONGER...LIKELY REACHING GALE FORCE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 231548
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
848 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...ALREADY MADE A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO RAISE
POPS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BAND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA RIGHT
NOW AND AM PLANNING TO UPDATE THE REST OF TODAY SHORTLY. THERE IS
A POTENT UPPER LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST RIGHT NOW, AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG THE
PACNW COAST. THE MAIN RAIN BAND CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM AROUND
ROSEBURG SOUTH THROUGH JOSEPHINE COUNTY AND IS MOVING EAST AT
AROUND 20 MPH WHICH PUTS IT AT MEDFORD AROUND 930 AM. WHILE THE
MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT FALLING APART PRIOR TO REACHING MEDFORD,
RADAR DOESN`T SUGGEST THAT, SO WE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN THIS
MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, IT WILL BECOME SHOWERY.
MOST OF THE INSTABILITY IS WELL NORTH OF US, BUT WE COULD SEE A
LIGHTNING STRIKE HERE OR THERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. AT ANY RATE, IT WILL BE QUITE COOL AND DAMP FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR TODAY.

I DO THINK THE FRONT (OR AT LEAST ITS PRECIPITATION) WILL FALL
APART AS IT IS CROSSES OVER TO THE EAST SIDE, BUT IT WILL STILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY EAST OF THE CASCADES. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MUCH SPOTTIER OVER THERE, BUT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NORTH. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/12Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT THE COAST WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
WILL PERSIST AT THE COAST UNTIL AROUND 18Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INLAND THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CEILINGS TRANSITIONING TO AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS...MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST. AS THE COLD FRONT
TRACKS INLAND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AREA EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY TODAY. BUT, THIS FRONT WILL ALSO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS...TO 35 KT EAST OF THE CASCADES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS WILL RISE AND THEN
DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING, EXCEPT FOR COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. /DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A FRONT INLAND
TODAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND MOVES ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT FROM
THE CASCADES EASTWARD. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT INLAND
TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SO EXPECT CONTINUED COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS ON THURSDAY. ALONG THE
COAST, A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND STRENGTHENS FRIDAY
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TO THE COAST AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY.

TODAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO SPREAD
INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES
EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF AND
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO HELP TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PUSH INLAND TODAY
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LIFTED
INDICES AND CAPE ARE RELATIVELY WEAK THOUGH SO EXPECT MAINLY
ISOLATED STORMS. A FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
CASCADES IN OREGON EXTENDING EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.

ALSO WITH THIS FRONT, SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE CASCADES TODAY. MODELS AND GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES LOWERING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN THE LOWER 50S FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS. DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR INLAND
AREAS BUT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA. A MILD
CHETCO EFFECT MAY BE FELT AT BROOKINGS AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP DUE TO A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING ALONG THE COAST.

BY FRIDAY, EXPECT A RETURN TO NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION AND A THERMAL STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST.

LONG TERM...THEN HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. ALSO A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
MAY MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY. HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HOWEVER,  IF FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY, MAY NEED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
INLAND AREAS, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN OREGON AND ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 23 JULY 2014...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WET COLD FRONT, AND
ALSO HIGH IN A CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN TO FOLLOW. A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY THEN LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST RELATES TO THE STRENGTH OF NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SPECIFICALLY HOW FAR TO
THE NORTH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND AND WHETHER
WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO WILL REACH GALE
FORCE. THE 00Z GFS MODEL IS STRONGER THAN THE NAM WITH WINDS NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO WHILE MAINTAINING ITS NORMAL BIAS OF NOT BRINGING
THE STRONG NORTHERLIES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST. A MODEL BLEND
WAS UTILIZED. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WITHIN 5 NM OF THE COAST WHILE WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW GALE FORCE ON
THURSDAY BUT THEN A BIT STRONGER...LIKELY REACHING GALE FORCE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 231548
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
848 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...ALREADY MADE A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO RAISE
POPS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BAND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA RIGHT
NOW AND AM PLANNING TO UPDATE THE REST OF TODAY SHORTLY. THERE IS
A POTENT UPPER LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST RIGHT NOW, AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG THE
PACNW COAST. THE MAIN RAIN BAND CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM AROUND
ROSEBURG SOUTH THROUGH JOSEPHINE COUNTY AND IS MOVING EAST AT
AROUND 20 MPH WHICH PUTS IT AT MEDFORD AROUND 930 AM. WHILE THE
MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT FALLING APART PRIOR TO REACHING MEDFORD,
RADAR DOESN`T SUGGEST THAT, SO WE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN THIS
MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, IT WILL BECOME SHOWERY.
MOST OF THE INSTABILITY IS WELL NORTH OF US, BUT WE COULD SEE A
LIGHTNING STRIKE HERE OR THERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. AT ANY RATE, IT WILL BE QUITE COOL AND DAMP FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR TODAY.

I DO THINK THE FRONT (OR AT LEAST ITS PRECIPITATION) WILL FALL
APART AS IT IS CROSSES OVER TO THE EAST SIDE, BUT IT WILL STILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY EAST OF THE CASCADES. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MUCH SPOTTIER OVER THERE, BUT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NORTH. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/12Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT THE COAST WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
WILL PERSIST AT THE COAST UNTIL AROUND 18Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INLAND THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CEILINGS TRANSITIONING TO AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS...MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST. AS THE COLD FRONT
TRACKS INLAND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AREA EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY TODAY. BUT, THIS FRONT WILL ALSO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS...TO 35 KT EAST OF THE CASCADES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS WILL RISE AND THEN
DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING, EXCEPT FOR COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. /DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A FRONT INLAND
TODAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND MOVES ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT FROM
THE CASCADES EASTWARD. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT INLAND
TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SO EXPECT CONTINUED COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS ON THURSDAY. ALONG THE
COAST, A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND STRENGTHENS FRIDAY
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TO THE COAST AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY.

TODAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO SPREAD
INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES
EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF AND
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO HELP TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PUSH INLAND TODAY
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LIFTED
INDICES AND CAPE ARE RELATIVELY WEAK THOUGH SO EXPECT MAINLY
ISOLATED STORMS. A FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
CASCADES IN OREGON EXTENDING EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.

ALSO WITH THIS FRONT, SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE CASCADES TODAY. MODELS AND GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES LOWERING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN THE LOWER 50S FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS. DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR INLAND
AREAS BUT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA. A MILD
CHETCO EFFECT MAY BE FELT AT BROOKINGS AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP DUE TO A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING ALONG THE COAST.

BY FRIDAY, EXPECT A RETURN TO NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION AND A THERMAL STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST.

LONG TERM...THEN HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. ALSO A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
MAY MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY. HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HOWEVER,  IF FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY, MAY NEED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
INLAND AREAS, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN OREGON AND ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 23 JULY 2014...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WET COLD FRONT, AND
ALSO HIGH IN A CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN TO FOLLOW. A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY THEN LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST RELATES TO THE STRENGTH OF NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SPECIFICALLY HOW FAR TO
THE NORTH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND AND WHETHER
WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO WILL REACH GALE
FORCE. THE 00Z GFS MODEL IS STRONGER THAN THE NAM WITH WINDS NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO WHILE MAINTAINING ITS NORMAL BIAS OF NOT BRINGING
THE STRONG NORTHERLIES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST. A MODEL BLEND
WAS UTILIZED. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WITHIN 5 NM OF THE COAST WHILE WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW GALE FORCE ON
THURSDAY BUT THEN A BIT STRONGER...LIKELY REACHING GALE FORCE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 231548
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
848 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...ALREADY MADE A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO RAISE
POPS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BAND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA RIGHT
NOW AND AM PLANNING TO UPDATE THE REST OF TODAY SHORTLY. THERE IS
A POTENT UPPER LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST RIGHT NOW, AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG THE
PACNW COAST. THE MAIN RAIN BAND CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM AROUND
ROSEBURG SOUTH THROUGH JOSEPHINE COUNTY AND IS MOVING EAST AT
AROUND 20 MPH WHICH PUTS IT AT MEDFORD AROUND 930 AM. WHILE THE
MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT FALLING APART PRIOR TO REACHING MEDFORD,
RADAR DOESN`T SUGGEST THAT, SO WE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN THIS
MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, IT WILL BECOME SHOWERY.
MOST OF THE INSTABILITY IS WELL NORTH OF US, BUT WE COULD SEE A
LIGHTNING STRIKE HERE OR THERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. AT ANY RATE, IT WILL BE QUITE COOL AND DAMP FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR TODAY.

I DO THINK THE FRONT (OR AT LEAST ITS PRECIPITATION) WILL FALL
APART AS IT IS CROSSES OVER TO THE EAST SIDE, BUT IT WILL STILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY EAST OF THE CASCADES. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MUCH SPOTTIER OVER THERE, BUT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NORTH. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/12Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT THE COAST WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
WILL PERSIST AT THE COAST UNTIL AROUND 18Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INLAND THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CEILINGS TRANSITIONING TO AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS...MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST. AS THE COLD FRONT
TRACKS INLAND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AREA EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY TODAY. BUT, THIS FRONT WILL ALSO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS...TO 35 KT EAST OF THE CASCADES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS WILL RISE AND THEN
DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING, EXCEPT FOR COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. /DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A FRONT INLAND
TODAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND MOVES ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT FROM
THE CASCADES EASTWARD. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT INLAND
TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SO EXPECT CONTINUED COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS ON THURSDAY. ALONG THE
COAST, A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND STRENGTHENS FRIDAY
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TO THE COAST AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY.

TODAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO SPREAD
INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES
EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF AND
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO HELP TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PUSH INLAND TODAY
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LIFTED
INDICES AND CAPE ARE RELATIVELY WEAK THOUGH SO EXPECT MAINLY
ISOLATED STORMS. A FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
CASCADES IN OREGON EXTENDING EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.

ALSO WITH THIS FRONT, SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE CASCADES TODAY. MODELS AND GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES LOWERING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN THE LOWER 50S FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS. DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR INLAND
AREAS BUT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA. A MILD
CHETCO EFFECT MAY BE FELT AT BROOKINGS AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP DUE TO A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING ALONG THE COAST.

BY FRIDAY, EXPECT A RETURN TO NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION AND A THERMAL STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST.

LONG TERM...THEN HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. ALSO A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
MAY MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY. HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HOWEVER,  IF FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY, MAY NEED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
INLAND AREAS, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN OREGON AND ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 23 JULY 2014...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WET COLD FRONT, AND
ALSO HIGH IN A CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN TO FOLLOW. A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY THEN LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST RELATES TO THE STRENGTH OF NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SPECIFICALLY HOW FAR TO
THE NORTH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND AND WHETHER
WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO WILL REACH GALE
FORCE. THE 00Z GFS MODEL IS STRONGER THAN THE NAM WITH WINDS NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO WHILE MAINTAINING ITS NORMAL BIAS OF NOT BRINGING
THE STRONG NORTHERLIES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST. A MODEL BLEND
WAS UTILIZED. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WITHIN 5 NM OF THE COAST WHILE WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW GALE FORCE ON
THURSDAY BUT THEN A BIT STRONGER...LIKELY REACHING GALE FORCE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$








000
FXUS66 KPDT 231531
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
833 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND IS PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND WESTERN OREGON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES. VORT CENTER AND JET MOVING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WITH HAIL AND WIND. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
LATER TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 437 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
DECREASED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. IR SATELLITE INDICATES THAT THE
COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND AN OFFSHORE UPPER
LEVEL LOW INTO EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP MOIST UNSTABLE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON...THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MIX TO THE SURFACE. A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS
WIND. 76

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEST FLOW WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS A FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS.  FLOW
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO BE SOUTHERLY...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS DON`T PUT OUT
TO MUCH QPF WITH THIS MOISTURE...SO HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IS
OVER CENTRAL OREGON ON MONDAY AND WILL SPREAD TO NORTHEAST OREGON AS
WELL TUESDAY ONWARD.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY HOT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  WEBER

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER FOR
ALL TAF SITES.  WITH CONVECTION AS EARLY AS 18Z FOR THE WESTERN TAF
SITES.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND TODAY.
FORCING ALONG WITH SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL AID IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-03Z.  TAF SITES WILL
BE BREEZY WITH WINDS 10-15KTS GUSTING 20-25KTS.  CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 06Z AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE SCATTERED...AND THE
FLOW SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY...AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  81  53  79  51 /  40  30  10   0
ALW  84  57  78  57 /  40  30  10   0
PSC  85  59  82  54 /  30  30  10   0
YKM  77  53  78  54 /  50  30  10  10
HRI  83  56  80  53 /  30  20  10   0
ELN  74  51  74  52 /  60  30  10  10
RDM  73  38  74  39 /  40  20   0  10
LGD  82  50  72  45 /  40  30  10   0
GCD  81  49  75  48 /  30  20   0   0
DLS  73  57  77  56 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 231531
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
833 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND IS PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND WESTERN OREGON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES. VORT CENTER AND JET MOVING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WITH HAIL AND WIND. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
LATER TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 437 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
DECREASED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. IR SATELLITE INDICATES THAT THE
COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND AN OFFSHORE UPPER
LEVEL LOW INTO EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP MOIST UNSTABLE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON...THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MIX TO THE SURFACE. A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS
WIND. 76

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEST FLOW WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS A FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS.  FLOW
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO BE SOUTHERLY...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS DON`T PUT OUT
TO MUCH QPF WITH THIS MOISTURE...SO HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IS
OVER CENTRAL OREGON ON MONDAY AND WILL SPREAD TO NORTHEAST OREGON AS
WELL TUESDAY ONWARD.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY HOT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  WEBER

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER FOR
ALL TAF SITES.  WITH CONVECTION AS EARLY AS 18Z FOR THE WESTERN TAF
SITES.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND TODAY.
FORCING ALONG WITH SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL AID IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-03Z.  TAF SITES WILL
BE BREEZY WITH WINDS 10-15KTS GUSTING 20-25KTS.  CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 06Z AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE SCATTERED...AND THE
FLOW SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY...AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  81  53  79  51 /  40  30  10   0
ALW  84  57  78  57 /  40  30  10   0
PSC  85  59  82  54 /  30  30  10   0
YKM  77  53  78  54 /  50  30  10  10
HRI  83  56  80  53 /  30  20  10   0
ELN  74  51  74  52 /  60  30  10  10
RDM  73  38  74  39 /  40  20   0  10
LGD  82  50  72  45 /  40  30  10   0
GCD  81  49  75  48 /  30  20   0   0
DLS  73  57  77  56 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/





000
FXUS65 KBOI 231500
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
900 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...AIR MASS IS STILL MOIST AND UNSTABLE IN AND NEAR
VALLEY COUNTY/ID THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH
SUNSET.  WE WILL UPDATE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS THERE.  GREATEST 0-6
KM SHEAR WILL BE IN BAKER COUNTY BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE WEAKER THERE.  HOWEVER...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
BAKER COUNTY 00Z-03Z AND WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS THERE...FRONT
REACHING VALLEY COUNTY/ID 03Z-06Z.  AFTER FROPA...MORE STABLE AND
MUCH COOLER THURSDAY...CERTAINLY THE COOLEST DAY THIS JULY.  A COOL
NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW GOES ENE NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...THEN WARMER THIS WEEKEND AND QUITE HOT BY MONDAY UNDER
UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM VICINITY KMYL TILL
16Z.  FROM 21Z-05Z SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A
LINE FROM KBNO TO KBOI.  SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 10 KTS...BUT
INCREASING TO 20 KTS BEHIND COLD FRONT. FRONT NEAR KBNO AT
00Z...KTWF 09Z. WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT
IS DRAWING TO A CLOSE THIS MORNING. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA STARTING AROUND 22Z YDAY. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WAS
HIGH...THE 7TH HIGHEST FOR A JULY DAY SINCE 2000... WITH 2759
STRIKES IN THE CWA THROUGH 06Z. MALHEUR COUNTY ALONE HAD JUST OVER
1300 LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HARNEY COUNTY HAD OVER 800...THROUGH
06Z.

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE LESS ACTIVE...EVEN THOUGH A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. THIS IS BECAUSE A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA. THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. BY TONIGHT...THIS CHANCE WILL BECOME
SLIGHT...AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON IT WILL DISAPPEAR ALTOGETHER.
TEMPS WILL BE HOT AGAIN TODAY OWING TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. VALLEY TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE MID 90S.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH
COOLER AIR. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THU...LEAVING US IN
WSW FLOW BY LATE THU.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...BUT GETTING BACK TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY. RIDGE THEN
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH...TAKING TEMPERATURES BACK UP ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN. THIS ALSO OPENS THE DOOR TO MONSOON MOISTURE...AND
WITH SOME WEAK SHORT WAVES EVIDENT RIPPLING AROUND THE RIDGE...
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BY MONDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
     IDZ401-402.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING ORZ646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....RD
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....TB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 231500
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
900 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...AIR MASS IS STILL MOIST AND UNSTABLE IN AND NEAR
VALLEY COUNTY/ID THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH
SUNSET.  WE WILL UPDATE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS THERE.  GREATEST 0-6
KM SHEAR WILL BE IN BAKER COUNTY BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE WEAKER THERE.  HOWEVER...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
BAKER COUNTY 00Z-03Z AND WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS THERE...FRONT
REACHING VALLEY COUNTY/ID 03Z-06Z.  AFTER FROPA...MORE STABLE AND
MUCH COOLER THURSDAY...CERTAINLY THE COOLEST DAY THIS JULY.  A COOL
NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW GOES ENE NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...THEN WARMER THIS WEEKEND AND QUITE HOT BY MONDAY UNDER
UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM VICINITY KMYL TILL
16Z.  FROM 21Z-05Z SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A
LINE FROM KBNO TO KBOI.  SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 10 KTS...BUT
INCREASING TO 20 KTS BEHIND COLD FRONT. FRONT NEAR KBNO AT
00Z...KTWF 09Z. WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT
IS DRAWING TO A CLOSE THIS MORNING. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA STARTING AROUND 22Z YDAY. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WAS
HIGH...THE 7TH HIGHEST FOR A JULY DAY SINCE 2000... WITH 2759
STRIKES IN THE CWA THROUGH 06Z. MALHEUR COUNTY ALONE HAD JUST OVER
1300 LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HARNEY COUNTY HAD OVER 800...THROUGH
06Z.

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE LESS ACTIVE...EVEN THOUGH A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. THIS IS BECAUSE A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA. THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. BY TONIGHT...THIS CHANCE WILL BECOME
SLIGHT...AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON IT WILL DISAPPEAR ALTOGETHER.
TEMPS WILL BE HOT AGAIN TODAY OWING TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. VALLEY TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE MID 90S.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH
COOLER AIR. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THU...LEAVING US IN
WSW FLOW BY LATE THU.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...BUT GETTING BACK TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY. RIDGE THEN
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH...TAKING TEMPERATURES BACK UP ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN. THIS ALSO OPENS THE DOOR TO MONSOON MOISTURE...AND
WITH SOME WEAK SHORT WAVES EVIDENT RIPPLING AROUND THE RIDGE...
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BY MONDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
     IDZ401-402.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING ORZ646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....RD
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....TB



000
FXUS66 KPDT 231137 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
437 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
DECREASED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. IR SATELLITE INDICATES THAT THE
COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND AN OFFSHORE UPPER
LEVEL LOW INTO EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP MOIST UNSTABLE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON...THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MIX TO THE SURFACE. A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS
WIND. 76

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEST FLOW WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS A FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS.  FLOW
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO BE SOUTHERLY...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS DON`T PUT OUT
TO MUCH QPF WITH THIS MOISTURE...SO HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IS
OVER CENTRAL OREGON ON MONDAY AND WILL SPREAD TO NORTHEAST OREGON AS
WELL TUESDAY ONWARD.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY HOT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER FOR
ALL TAF SITES.  WITH CONVECTION AS EARLY AS 18Z FOR THE WESTERN TAF
SITES.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND TODAY.
FORCING ALONG WITH SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL AID IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-03Z.  TAF SITES WILL
BE BREEZY WITH WINDS 10-15KTS GUSTING 20-25KTS.  CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 06Z AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE SCATTERED...AND THE
FLOW SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY...AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.  WEBER

&&

...FIRE WX...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE WETTING RAIN...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH COULD START NEW FIRES IN VERY DRY FUELS.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
SOME PLACES. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
RED FLAG WARNINGS THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  82  53  79  51 /  40  30  10   0
ALW  85  57  78  57 /  40  30  10   0
PSC  86  59  82  54 /  30  30  10   0
YKM  78  53  78  54 /  50  30  10  10
HRI  84  56  80  53 /  30  20  10   0
ELN  75  51  74  52 /  60  30  10  10
RDM  74  38  74  39 /  40  20   0  10
LGD  83  50  72  45 /  40  30  10   0
GCD  82  49  75  48 /  30  20   0   0
DLS  74  57  77  56 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/89/89







000
FXUS66 KPDT 231137 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
437 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
DECREASED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. IR SATELLITE INDICATES THAT THE
COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND AN OFFSHORE UPPER
LEVEL LOW INTO EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP MOIST UNSTABLE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON...THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MIX TO THE SURFACE. A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS
WIND. 76

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEST FLOW WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS A FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS.  FLOW
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO BE SOUTHERLY...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS DON`T PUT OUT
TO MUCH QPF WITH THIS MOISTURE...SO HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IS
OVER CENTRAL OREGON ON MONDAY AND WILL SPREAD TO NORTHEAST OREGON AS
WELL TUESDAY ONWARD.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY HOT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER FOR
ALL TAF SITES.  WITH CONVECTION AS EARLY AS 18Z FOR THE WESTERN TAF
SITES.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND TODAY.
FORCING ALONG WITH SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL AID IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-03Z.  TAF SITES WILL
BE BREEZY WITH WINDS 10-15KTS GUSTING 20-25KTS.  CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 06Z AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE SCATTERED...AND THE
FLOW SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY...AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.  WEBER

&&

...FIRE WX...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE WETTING RAIN...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH COULD START NEW FIRES IN VERY DRY FUELS.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
SOME PLACES. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
RED FLAG WARNINGS THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  82  53  79  51 /  40  30  10   0
ALW  85  57  78  57 /  40  30  10   0
PSC  86  59  82  54 /  30  30  10   0
YKM  78  53  78  54 /  50  30  10  10
HRI  84  56  80  53 /  30  20  10   0
ELN  75  51  74  52 /  60  30  10  10
RDM  74  38  74  39 /  40  20   0  10
LGD  83  50  72  45 /  40  30  10   0
GCD  82  49  75  48 /  30  20   0   0
DLS  74  57  77  56 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/89/89







000
FXUS66 KPDT 231137 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
437 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
DECREASED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. IR SATELLITE INDICATES THAT THE
COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND AN OFFSHORE UPPER
LEVEL LOW INTO EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP MOIST UNSTABLE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON...THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MIX TO THE SURFACE. A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS
WIND. 76

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEST FLOW WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS A FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS.  FLOW
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO BE SOUTHERLY...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS DON`T PUT OUT
TO MUCH QPF WITH THIS MOISTURE...SO HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IS
OVER CENTRAL OREGON ON MONDAY AND WILL SPREAD TO NORTHEAST OREGON AS
WELL TUESDAY ONWARD.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY HOT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER FOR
ALL TAF SITES.  WITH CONVECTION AS EARLY AS 18Z FOR THE WESTERN TAF
SITES.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND TODAY.
FORCING ALONG WITH SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL AID IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-03Z.  TAF SITES WILL
BE BREEZY WITH WINDS 10-15KTS GUSTING 20-25KTS.  CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 06Z AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE SCATTERED...AND THE
FLOW SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY...AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.  WEBER

&&

...FIRE WX...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE WETTING RAIN...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH COULD START NEW FIRES IN VERY DRY FUELS.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
SOME PLACES. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
RED FLAG WARNINGS THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  82  53  79  51 /  40  30  10   0
ALW  85  57  78  57 /  40  30  10   0
PSC  86  59  82  54 /  30  30  10   0
YKM  78  53  78  54 /  50  30  10  10
HRI  84  56  80  53 /  30  20  10   0
ELN  75  51  74  52 /  60  30  10  10
RDM  74  38  74  39 /  40  20   0  10
LGD  83  50  72  45 /  40  30  10   0
GCD  82  49  75  48 /  30  20   0   0
DLS  74  57  77  56 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/89/89







000
FXUS66 KPDT 231137 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
437 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
DECREASED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. IR SATELLITE INDICATES THAT THE
COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND AN OFFSHORE UPPER
LEVEL LOW INTO EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP MOIST UNSTABLE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON...THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MIX TO THE SURFACE. A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS
WIND. 76

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEST FLOW WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS A FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS.  FLOW
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO BE SOUTHERLY...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS DON`T PUT OUT
TO MUCH QPF WITH THIS MOISTURE...SO HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IS
OVER CENTRAL OREGON ON MONDAY AND WILL SPREAD TO NORTHEAST OREGON AS
WELL TUESDAY ONWARD.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY HOT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER FOR
ALL TAF SITES.  WITH CONVECTION AS EARLY AS 18Z FOR THE WESTERN TAF
SITES.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND TODAY.
FORCING ALONG WITH SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL AID IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-03Z.  TAF SITES WILL
BE BREEZY WITH WINDS 10-15KTS GUSTING 20-25KTS.  CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 06Z AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE SCATTERED...AND THE
FLOW SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY...AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.  WEBER

&&

...FIRE WX...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE WETTING RAIN...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH COULD START NEW FIRES IN VERY DRY FUELS.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
SOME PLACES. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
RED FLAG WARNINGS THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  82  53  79  51 /  40  30  10   0
ALW  85  57  78  57 /  40  30  10   0
PSC  86  59  82  54 /  30  30  10   0
YKM  78  53  78  54 /  50  30  10  10
HRI  84  56  80  53 /  30  20  10   0
ELN  75  51  74  52 /  60  30  10  10
RDM  74  38  74  39 /  40  20   0  10
LGD  83  50  72  45 /  40  30  10   0
GCD  82  49  75  48 /  30  20   0   0
DLS  74  57  77  56 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/89/89







000
FXUS66 KPQR 231033
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
330 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. DRIER WEATHER WITH
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90F LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AFTER A QUIET PERIOD OVERNIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ON THE INCREASE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VORT
CENTER OFF THE NRN CA COAST INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW SAGGING
OVER THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS.  REGIONAL RADAR
NETWORK INDICATING TWO SEPARATE BANDS OF PCPN AFFECTING THE AREA. ONE
OVER THE COAST AND COAST RANGE...AND THE OTHER MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AREA OF THE CWA.  MODELS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LIFT
MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY. SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL AND
INCREASED QPF FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

CONVECTION POTENTIAL FOR TODAY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS IT APPEARS
THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOW.  HOWEVER FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES...MORE TO THE NORTH
PART OF THE CWA THAN THE SOUTH...CONVECTION BECOMES MORE LIKELY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE -3 LIFTED INDEX OVER THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AND 0 TO 2 LI OVER THE SOUTH VALLEY. CAPE VALUES AROUND 400-600 J/KG
NORTH AND UNDER 100 J/KG SOUTH.  EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS PEAK AT AROUND
THE -30C LEVEL IN THE NORTH SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY DEEP
CONVECTION FOR HAIL DEVELOPMENT. ALSO OF NOTE IS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE LESS PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORM AND BE LONGER LIVED.  ALSO WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
COAST THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SURFACE WINDS IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO HAVE A BIT MORE OF A S
TO SSE COMPONENT THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. COMBINED WITH WSW WINDS OF
25 KT AT 900MB AND 40KT AT 500MB...A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING UPDRAFT
COULD ROTATE BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THIS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA...BUT IT WILL STILL BE
WORTH MONITORING. THE MORE EXPECTED HAZARDS...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WERE ADDED TO THE THUNDER.

ON THE FIRE FRONT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY PUSHING AN INCH OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TOWARDS
LANE COUNTY...BUT CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT AND THU WITH WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPING SO EXPECT A DRYING AND WARMING TREND HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
GENERALLY AFTER 12Z AND EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COULD
SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO BEFORE 12Z WITH THE CURRENT BAND OF
SHOWERS AFFECTING COASTAL SITES BUT NOT LIKELY. RAIN AND MVFR
CIGS MOVE INTO THE VALLEY STARTING AROUND 12Z AT EUG AND
SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. COULD BE SOME IFR VSBY AT ANY
TERMINALS WHICH DO EXPERIENCE A STORM BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH
THAT HAVE NOT INCLUDED THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING
WITH CIGS ABOVE 4000 FT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 12Z WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING KPDX AND APPROACHES AFTER 12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z.


&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TONIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN OREGON OFFSHORE
WATERS...BUT WITH SUCH MARGINAL NUMBERS WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON
ISSUING AN SCA. LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC
AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231033
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
330 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. DRIER WEATHER WITH
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90F LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AFTER A QUIET PERIOD OVERNIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ON THE INCREASE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VORT
CENTER OFF THE NRN CA COAST INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW SAGGING
OVER THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS.  REGIONAL RADAR
NETWORK INDICATING TWO SEPARATE BANDS OF PCPN AFFECTING THE AREA. ONE
OVER THE COAST AND COAST RANGE...AND THE OTHER MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AREA OF THE CWA.  MODELS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LIFT
MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY. SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL AND
INCREASED QPF FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

CONVECTION POTENTIAL FOR TODAY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS IT APPEARS
THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOW.  HOWEVER FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES...MORE TO THE NORTH
PART OF THE CWA THAN THE SOUTH...CONVECTION BECOMES MORE LIKELY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE -3 LIFTED INDEX OVER THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AND 0 TO 2 LI OVER THE SOUTH VALLEY. CAPE VALUES AROUND 400-600 J/KG
NORTH AND UNDER 100 J/KG SOUTH.  EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS PEAK AT AROUND
THE -30C LEVEL IN THE NORTH SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY DEEP
CONVECTION FOR HAIL DEVELOPMENT. ALSO OF NOTE IS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE LESS PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORM AND BE LONGER LIVED.  ALSO WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
COAST THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SURFACE WINDS IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO HAVE A BIT MORE OF A S
TO SSE COMPONENT THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. COMBINED WITH WSW WINDS OF
25 KT AT 900MB AND 40KT AT 500MB...A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING UPDRAFT
COULD ROTATE BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THIS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA...BUT IT WILL STILL BE
WORTH MONITORING. THE MORE EXPECTED HAZARDS...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WERE ADDED TO THE THUNDER.

ON THE FIRE FRONT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY PUSHING AN INCH OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TOWARDS
LANE COUNTY...BUT CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT AND THU WITH WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPING SO EXPECT A DRYING AND WARMING TREND HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
GENERALLY AFTER 12Z AND EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COULD
SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO BEFORE 12Z WITH THE CURRENT BAND OF
SHOWERS AFFECTING COASTAL SITES BUT NOT LIKELY. RAIN AND MVFR
CIGS MOVE INTO THE VALLEY STARTING AROUND 12Z AT EUG AND
SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. COULD BE SOME IFR VSBY AT ANY
TERMINALS WHICH DO EXPERIENCE A STORM BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH
THAT HAVE NOT INCLUDED THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING
WITH CIGS ABOVE 4000 FT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 12Z WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING KPDX AND APPROACHES AFTER 12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z.


&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TONIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN OREGON OFFSHORE
WATERS...BUT WITH SUCH MARGINAL NUMBERS WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON
ISSUING AN SCA. LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC
AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 231029
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
329 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A FRONT INLAND
TODAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND MOVES ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT FROM
THE CASCADES EASTWARD. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT INLAND
TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SO EXPECT CONTINUED COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS ON THURSDAY. ALONG THE
COAST, A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND STRENGTHENS FRIDAY
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TO THE COAST AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY.

TODAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO SPREAD
INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES
EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF AND
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO HELP TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PUSH INLAND TODAY
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LIFTED
INDICES AND CAPE ARE RELATIVELY WEAK THOUGH SO EXPECT MAINLY
ISOLATED STORMS. A FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
CASCADES IN OREGON EXTENDING EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.

ALSO WITH THIS FRONT, SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE CASCADES TODAY. MODELS AND GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES LOWERING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN THE LOWER 50S FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS. DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR INLAND
AREAS BUT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA. A MILD
CHETCO EFFECT MAY BE FELT AT BROOKINGS AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP DUE TO A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING ALONG THE COAST.

BY FRIDAY, EXPECT A RETURN TO NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION AND A THERMAL STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...THEN HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. ALSO A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
MAY MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY. HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HOWEVER,  IF FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY, MAY NEED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
INLAND AREAS, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN OREGON AND ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/06Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT THE COAST WILL FILL IN LATE TONIGHT AND LOWER TO IFR
WITH RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. OTHERWISE, VFR CEILINGS EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA WEST OF THE
CASCADES. AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS INLAND DURING THE MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, MVFR AND LOCAL VFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE WEST SIDE WITH VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST
SIDE. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS...TO 35 KT EAST OF THE CASCADES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. /DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 23 JULY 2014...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WET COLD FRONT, AND
ALSO HIGH IN A CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN TO FOLLOW. A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY THEN LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
RELATES TO THE STRENGTH OF NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SPECIFICALLY HOW FAR TO THE NORTH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND AND WHETHER WINDS IN THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO WILL REACH GALE FORCE. THE 00Z GFS
MODEL IS STRONGER THAN THE NAM WITH WINDS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO WHILE
MAINTAINING ITS NORMAL BIAS OF NOT BRINGING THE STRONG NORTHERLIES
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST. A MODEL BLEND WAS UTILIZED. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WITHIN 5 NM OF
THE COAST WHILE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW GALE FORCE ON THURSDAY BUT THEN A BIT STRONGER...LIKELY
REACHING GALE FORCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /DW



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 231029
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
329 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A FRONT INLAND
TODAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND MOVES ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT FROM
THE CASCADES EASTWARD. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT INLAND
TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SO EXPECT CONTINUED COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS ON THURSDAY. ALONG THE
COAST, A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND STRENGTHENS FRIDAY
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TO THE COAST AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY.

TODAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO SPREAD
INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES
EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF AND
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO HELP TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PUSH INLAND TODAY
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LIFTED
INDICES AND CAPE ARE RELATIVELY WEAK THOUGH SO EXPECT MAINLY
ISOLATED STORMS. A FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
CASCADES IN OREGON EXTENDING EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.

ALSO WITH THIS FRONT, SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE CASCADES TODAY. MODELS AND GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES LOWERING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN THE LOWER 50S FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS. DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR INLAND
AREAS BUT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA. A MILD
CHETCO EFFECT MAY BE FELT AT BROOKINGS AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP DUE TO A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING ALONG THE COAST.

BY FRIDAY, EXPECT A RETURN TO NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION AND A THERMAL STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...THEN HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. ALSO A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
MAY MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY. HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HOWEVER,  IF FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY, MAY NEED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
INLAND AREAS, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN OREGON AND ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/06Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT THE COAST WILL FILL IN LATE TONIGHT AND LOWER TO IFR
WITH RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. OTHERWISE, VFR CEILINGS EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA WEST OF THE
CASCADES. AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS INLAND DURING THE MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, MVFR AND LOCAL VFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE WEST SIDE WITH VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST
SIDE. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS...TO 35 KT EAST OF THE CASCADES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. /DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 23 JULY 2014...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WET COLD FRONT, AND
ALSO HIGH IN A CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN TO FOLLOW. A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY THEN LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
RELATES TO THE STRENGTH OF NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SPECIFICALLY HOW FAR TO THE NORTH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND AND WHETHER WINDS IN THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO WILL REACH GALE FORCE. THE 00Z GFS
MODEL IS STRONGER THAN THE NAM WITH WINDS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO WHILE
MAINTAINING ITS NORMAL BIAS OF NOT BRINGING THE STRONG NORTHERLIES
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST. A MODEL BLEND WAS UTILIZED. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WITHIN 5 NM OF
THE COAST WHILE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW GALE FORCE ON THURSDAY BUT THEN A BIT STRONGER...LIKELY
REACHING GALE FORCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /DW



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 231029
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
329 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A FRONT INLAND
TODAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND MOVES ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT FROM
THE CASCADES EASTWARD. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT INLAND
TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SO EXPECT CONTINUED COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS ON THURSDAY. ALONG THE
COAST, A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND STRENGTHENS FRIDAY
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TO THE COAST AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY.

TODAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO SPREAD
INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES
EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF AND
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO HELP TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PUSH INLAND TODAY
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LIFTED
INDICES AND CAPE ARE RELATIVELY WEAK THOUGH SO EXPECT MAINLY
ISOLATED STORMS. A FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
CASCADES IN OREGON EXTENDING EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.

ALSO WITH THIS FRONT, SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE CASCADES TODAY. MODELS AND GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES LOWERING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN THE LOWER 50S FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS. DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR INLAND
AREAS BUT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA. A MILD
CHETCO EFFECT MAY BE FELT AT BROOKINGS AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP DUE TO A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING ALONG THE COAST.

BY FRIDAY, EXPECT A RETURN TO NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION AND A THERMAL STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...THEN HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. ALSO A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
MAY MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY. HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HOWEVER,  IF FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY, MAY NEED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
INLAND AREAS, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN OREGON AND ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/06Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT THE COAST WILL FILL IN LATE TONIGHT AND LOWER TO IFR
WITH RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. OTHERWISE, VFR CEILINGS EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA WEST OF THE
CASCADES. AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS INLAND DURING THE MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, MVFR AND LOCAL VFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE WEST SIDE WITH VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST
SIDE. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS...TO 35 KT EAST OF THE CASCADES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. /DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 23 JULY 2014...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WET COLD FRONT, AND
ALSO HIGH IN A CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN TO FOLLOW. A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY THEN LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
RELATES TO THE STRENGTH OF NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SPECIFICALLY HOW FAR TO THE NORTH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND AND WHETHER WINDS IN THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO WILL REACH GALE FORCE. THE 00Z GFS
MODEL IS STRONGER THAN THE NAM WITH WINDS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO WHILE
MAINTAINING ITS NORMAL BIAS OF NOT BRINGING THE STRONG NORTHERLIES
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST. A MODEL BLEND WAS UTILIZED. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WITHIN 5 NM OF
THE COAST WHILE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW GALE FORCE ON THURSDAY BUT THEN A BIT STRONGER...LIKELY
REACHING GALE FORCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /DW



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 231029
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
329 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A FRONT INLAND
TODAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND MOVES ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT FROM
THE CASCADES EASTWARD. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT INLAND
TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SO EXPECT CONTINUED COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS ON THURSDAY. ALONG THE
COAST, A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND STRENGTHENS FRIDAY
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TO THE COAST AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY.

TODAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO SPREAD
INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES
EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF AND
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO HELP TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PUSH INLAND TODAY
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LIFTED
INDICES AND CAPE ARE RELATIVELY WEAK THOUGH SO EXPECT MAINLY
ISOLATED STORMS. A FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
CASCADES IN OREGON EXTENDING EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.

ALSO WITH THIS FRONT, SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE CASCADES TODAY. MODELS AND GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES LOWERING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN THE LOWER 50S FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS. DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR INLAND
AREAS BUT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA. A MILD
CHETCO EFFECT MAY BE FELT AT BROOKINGS AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP DUE TO A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING ALONG THE COAST.

BY FRIDAY, EXPECT A RETURN TO NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION AND A THERMAL STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...THEN HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. ALSO A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
MAY MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY. HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HOWEVER,  IF FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY, MAY NEED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
INLAND AREAS, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN OREGON AND ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/06Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT THE COAST WILL FILL IN LATE TONIGHT AND LOWER TO IFR
WITH RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. OTHERWISE, VFR CEILINGS EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA WEST OF THE
CASCADES. AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS INLAND DURING THE MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, MVFR AND LOCAL VFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE WEST SIDE WITH VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST
SIDE. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS...TO 35 KT EAST OF THE CASCADES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. /DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 23 JULY 2014...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WET COLD FRONT, AND
ALSO HIGH IN A CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN TO FOLLOW. A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY THEN LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
RELATES TO THE STRENGTH OF NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SPECIFICALLY HOW FAR TO THE NORTH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND AND WHETHER WINDS IN THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO WILL REACH GALE FORCE. THE 00Z GFS
MODEL IS STRONGER THAN THE NAM WITH WINDS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO WHILE
MAINTAINING ITS NORMAL BIAS OF NOT BRINGING THE STRONG NORTHERLIES
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST. A MODEL BLEND WAS UTILIZED. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WITHIN 5 NM OF
THE COAST WHILE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW GALE FORCE ON THURSDAY BUT THEN A BIT STRONGER...LIKELY
REACHING GALE FORCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /DW



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

CC







000
FXUS66 KPDT 230911
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
210 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
DECREASED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. IR SATELLITE INDICATES THAT THE
COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND AN OFFSHORE UPPER
LEVEL LOW INTO EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP MOIST UNSTABLE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON...THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MIX TO THE SURFACE. A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS
WIND. 76

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEST FLOW WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS A FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS.  FLOW
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO BE SOUTHERLY...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS DON`T PUT OUT
TO MUCH QPF WITH THIS MOISTURE...SO HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IS
OVER CENTRAL OREGON ON MONDAY AND WILL SPREAD TO NORTHEAST OREGON AS
WELL TUESDAY ONWARD.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY HOT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO GRADUALLY DECREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES IN THE SHORT TERM EXCEPT
KRDM...KBDN AND PERHAPS KPSC. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE CASCADES IN THE MORNING AFFECTING KYKM AND IN THE AFTERNOON
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KYKM. STORMS WILL BEGIN WINDING DOWN AFTER
24/04Z. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE BKN-OVC ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL BUT
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW MORNING EXCEPT
NEAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AFTER 18Z, WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AFTER 20Z. PERRY

&&

...FIRE WX...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE WETTING RAIN...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH COULD START NEW FIRES IN VERY DRY FUELS.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
SOME PLACES. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
RED FLAG WARNINGS THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  82  53  79  51 /  40  30  10   0
ALW  85  57  78  57 /  40  30  10   0
PSC  86  59  82  54 /  30  30  10   0
YKM  78  53  78  54 /  50  30  10  10
HRI  84  56  80  53 /  30  20  10   0
ELN  75  51  74  52 /  60  30  10  10
RDM  74  38  74  39 /  40  20   0  10
LGD  83  50  72  45 /  40  30  10   0
GCD  82  49  75  48 /  30  20   0   0
DLS  74  57  77  56 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/89/89








000
FXUS66 KPDT 230911
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
210 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
DECREASED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. IR SATELLITE INDICATES THAT THE
COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND AN OFFSHORE UPPER
LEVEL LOW INTO EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP MOIST UNSTABLE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON...THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MIX TO THE SURFACE. A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS
WIND. 76

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEST FLOW WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS A FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS.  FLOW
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO BE SOUTHERLY...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS DON`T PUT OUT
TO MUCH QPF WITH THIS MOISTURE...SO HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IS
OVER CENTRAL OREGON ON MONDAY AND WILL SPREAD TO NORTHEAST OREGON AS
WELL TUESDAY ONWARD.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY HOT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO GRADUALLY DECREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES IN THE SHORT TERM EXCEPT
KRDM...KBDN AND PERHAPS KPSC. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE CASCADES IN THE MORNING AFFECTING KYKM AND IN THE AFTERNOON
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KYKM. STORMS WILL BEGIN WINDING DOWN AFTER
24/04Z. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE BKN-OVC ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL BUT
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW MORNING EXCEPT
NEAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AFTER 18Z, WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AFTER 20Z. PERRY

&&

...FIRE WX...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE WETTING RAIN...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH COULD START NEW FIRES IN VERY DRY FUELS.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
SOME PLACES. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
RED FLAG WARNINGS THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  82  53  79  51 /  40  30  10   0
ALW  85  57  78  57 /  40  30  10   0
PSC  86  59  82  54 /  30  30  10   0
YKM  78  53  78  54 /  50  30  10  10
HRI  84  56  80  53 /  30  20  10   0
ELN  75  51  74  52 /  60  30  10  10
RDM  74  38  74  39 /  40  20   0  10
LGD  83  50  72  45 /  40  30  10   0
GCD  82  49  75  48 /  30  20   0   0
DLS  74  57  77  56 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/89/89








000
FXUS66 KPDT 230911
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
210 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
DECREASED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. IR SATELLITE INDICATES THAT THE
COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND AN OFFSHORE UPPER
LEVEL LOW INTO EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP MOIST UNSTABLE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON...THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MIX TO THE SURFACE. A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS
WIND. 76

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEST FLOW WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS A FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS.  FLOW
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO BE SOUTHERLY...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS DON`T PUT OUT
TO MUCH QPF WITH THIS MOISTURE...SO HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IS
OVER CENTRAL OREGON ON MONDAY AND WILL SPREAD TO NORTHEAST OREGON AS
WELL TUESDAY ONWARD.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY HOT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO GRADUALLY DECREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES IN THE SHORT TERM EXCEPT
KRDM...KBDN AND PERHAPS KPSC. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE CASCADES IN THE MORNING AFFECTING KYKM AND IN THE AFTERNOON
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KYKM. STORMS WILL BEGIN WINDING DOWN AFTER
24/04Z. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE BKN-OVC ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL BUT
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW MORNING EXCEPT
NEAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AFTER 18Z, WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AFTER 20Z. PERRY

&&

...FIRE WX...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE WETTING RAIN...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH COULD START NEW FIRES IN VERY DRY FUELS.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
SOME PLACES. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
RED FLAG WARNINGS THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  82  53  79  51 /  40  30  10   0
ALW  85  57  78  57 /  40  30  10   0
PSC  86  59  82  54 /  30  30  10   0
YKM  78  53  78  54 /  50  30  10  10
HRI  84  56  80  53 /  30  20  10   0
ELN  75  51  74  52 /  60  30  10  10
RDM  74  38  74  39 /  40  20   0  10
LGD  83  50  72  45 /  40  30  10   0
GCD  82  49  75  48 /  30  20   0   0
DLS  74  57  77  56 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/89/89








000
FXUS66 KPDT 230911
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
210 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
DECREASED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. IR SATELLITE INDICATES THAT THE
COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND AN OFFSHORE UPPER
LEVEL LOW INTO EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP MOIST UNSTABLE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON...THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MIX TO THE SURFACE. A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS
WIND. 76

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEST FLOW WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS A FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS.  FLOW
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO BE SOUTHERLY...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS DON`T PUT OUT
TO MUCH QPF WITH THIS MOISTURE...SO HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IS
OVER CENTRAL OREGON ON MONDAY AND WILL SPREAD TO NORTHEAST OREGON AS
WELL TUESDAY ONWARD.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY HOT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO GRADUALLY DECREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES IN THE SHORT TERM EXCEPT
KRDM...KBDN AND PERHAPS KPSC. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE CASCADES IN THE MORNING AFFECTING KYKM AND IN THE AFTERNOON
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KYKM. STORMS WILL BEGIN WINDING DOWN AFTER
24/04Z. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE BKN-OVC ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL BUT
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW MORNING EXCEPT
NEAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AFTER 18Z, WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AFTER 20Z. PERRY

&&

...FIRE WX...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE WETTING RAIN...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH COULD START NEW FIRES IN VERY DRY FUELS.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
SOME PLACES. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
RED FLAG WARNINGS THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  82  53  79  51 /  40  30  10   0
ALW  85  57  78  57 /  40  30  10   0
PSC  86  59  82  54 /  30  30  10   0
YKM  78  53  78  54 /  50  30  10  10
HRI  84  56  80  53 /  30  20  10   0
ELN  75  51  74  52 /  60  30  10  10
RDM  74  38  74  39 /  40  20   0  10
LGD  83  50  72  45 /  40  30  10   0
GCD  82  49  75  48 /  30  20   0   0
DLS  74  57  77  56 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/89/89








000
FXUS65 KBOI 230859
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
259 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
EVENT IS DRAWING TO A CLOSE THIS MORNING. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA STARTING AROUND 22Z YDAY. LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WAS HIGH...THE 7TH HIGHEST FOR A JULY DAY SINCE 2000...
WITH 2759 STRIKES IN THE CWA THROUGH 06Z. MALHEUR COUNTY ALONE HAD
JUST OVER 1300 LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HARNEY COUNTY HAD OVER
800...THROUGH 06Z.

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE LESS ACTIVE...EVEN THOUGH A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. THIS IS BECAUSE A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA. THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. BY TONIGHT...THIS CHANCE WILL BECOME
SLIGHT...AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON IT WILL DISAPPEAR ALTOGETHER.
TEMPS WILL BE HOT AGAIN TODAY OWING TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. VALLEY TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE MID 90S.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH
COOLER AIR. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THU...LEAVING US IN
WSW FLOW BY LATE THU.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT GETTING BACK TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH...TAKING TEMPERATURES BACK
UP ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. THIS ALSO OPENS THE DOOR TO MONSOON
MOISTURE...AND WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES EVIDENT RIPPLING AROUND THE
RIDGE...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BY MONDAY AND
BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM KMYL-KBOI AT 08Z SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEAST...WEAKEN...AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF KBKE-KMYL FROM 21Z-03Z. SURFACE WINDS
NORTHWEST 10 KTS...BUT INCREASING TO 20 KTS BEHIND COLD FRONT. FRONT
NEAR KBNO AT 00Z...KTWF BY 06Z. WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KTS
UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING
     IDZ400-401-420-423.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT /5 AM PDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING
     ORZ636-637-646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....TB
AVIATION.....TB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 230859
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
259 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
EVENT IS DRAWING TO A CLOSE THIS MORNING. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA STARTING AROUND 22Z YDAY. LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WAS HIGH...THE 7TH HIGHEST FOR A JULY DAY SINCE 2000...
WITH 2759 STRIKES IN THE CWA THROUGH 06Z. MALHEUR COUNTY ALONE HAD
JUST OVER 1300 LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HARNEY COUNTY HAD OVER
800...THROUGH 06Z.

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE LESS ACTIVE...EVEN THOUGH A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. THIS IS BECAUSE A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA. THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. BY TONIGHT...THIS CHANCE WILL BECOME
SLIGHT...AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON IT WILL DISAPPEAR ALTOGETHER.
TEMPS WILL BE HOT AGAIN TODAY OWING TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. VALLEY TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE MID 90S.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH
COOLER AIR. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THU...LEAVING US IN
WSW FLOW BY LATE THU.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT GETTING BACK TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH...TAKING TEMPERATURES BACK
UP ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. THIS ALSO OPENS THE DOOR TO MONSOON
MOISTURE...AND WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES EVIDENT RIPPLING AROUND THE
RIDGE...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BY MONDAY AND
BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM KMYL-KBOI AT 08Z SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEAST...WEAKEN...AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF KBKE-KMYL FROM 21Z-03Z. SURFACE WINDS
NORTHWEST 10 KTS...BUT INCREASING TO 20 KTS BEHIND COLD FRONT. FRONT
NEAR KBNO AT 00Z...KTWF BY 06Z. WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KTS
UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING
     IDZ400-401-420-423.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT /5 AM PDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING
     ORZ636-637-646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....TB
AVIATION.....TB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 230859
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
259 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
EVENT IS DRAWING TO A CLOSE THIS MORNING. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA STARTING AROUND 22Z YDAY. LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WAS HIGH...THE 7TH HIGHEST FOR A JULY DAY SINCE 2000...
WITH 2759 STRIKES IN THE CWA THROUGH 06Z. MALHEUR COUNTY ALONE HAD
JUST OVER 1300 LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HARNEY COUNTY HAD OVER
800...THROUGH 06Z.

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE LESS ACTIVE...EVEN THOUGH A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. THIS IS BECAUSE A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA. THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. BY TONIGHT...THIS CHANCE WILL BECOME
SLIGHT...AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON IT WILL DISAPPEAR ALTOGETHER.
TEMPS WILL BE HOT AGAIN TODAY OWING TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. VALLEY TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE MID 90S.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH
COOLER AIR. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THU...LEAVING US IN
WSW FLOW BY LATE THU.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT GETTING BACK TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH...TAKING TEMPERATURES BACK
UP ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. THIS ALSO OPENS THE DOOR TO MONSOON
MOISTURE...AND WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES EVIDENT RIPPLING AROUND THE
RIDGE...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BY MONDAY AND
BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM KMYL-KBOI AT 08Z SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEAST...WEAKEN...AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF KBKE-KMYL FROM 21Z-03Z. SURFACE WINDS
NORTHWEST 10 KTS...BUT INCREASING TO 20 KTS BEHIND COLD FRONT. FRONT
NEAR KBNO AT 00Z...KTWF BY 06Z. WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KTS
UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING
     IDZ400-401-420-423.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT /5 AM PDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING
     ORZ636-637-646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....TB
AVIATION.....TB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 230859
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
259 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
EVENT IS DRAWING TO A CLOSE THIS MORNING. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA STARTING AROUND 22Z YDAY. LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WAS HIGH...THE 7TH HIGHEST FOR A JULY DAY SINCE 2000...
WITH 2759 STRIKES IN THE CWA THROUGH 06Z. MALHEUR COUNTY ALONE HAD
JUST OVER 1300 LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HARNEY COUNTY HAD OVER
800...THROUGH 06Z.

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE LESS ACTIVE...EVEN THOUGH A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. THIS IS BECAUSE A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA. THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. BY TONIGHT...THIS CHANCE WILL BECOME
SLIGHT...AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON IT WILL DISAPPEAR ALTOGETHER.
TEMPS WILL BE HOT AGAIN TODAY OWING TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. VALLEY TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE MID 90S.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH
COOLER AIR. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THU...LEAVING US IN
WSW FLOW BY LATE THU.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT GETTING BACK TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH...TAKING TEMPERATURES BACK
UP ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. THIS ALSO OPENS THE DOOR TO MONSOON
MOISTURE...AND WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES EVIDENT RIPPLING AROUND THE
RIDGE...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BY MONDAY AND
BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM KMYL-KBOI AT 08Z SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEAST...WEAKEN...AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF KBKE-KMYL FROM 21Z-03Z. SURFACE WINDS
NORTHWEST 10 KTS...BUT INCREASING TO 20 KTS BEHIND COLD FRONT. FRONT
NEAR KBNO AT 00Z...KTWF BY 06Z. WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KTS
UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING
     IDZ400-401-420-423.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT /5 AM PDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING
     ORZ636-637-646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....TB
AVIATION.....TB




000
FXUS66 KPDT 230542 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1042 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE
THE TREND OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOWS SOME WEAKENING IN THE LAST
HOUR OR TWO...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND PERHAPS ALL NIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THE STORMS
THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME REPORTS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS, PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THE
SITUATION WELL AND NO FORECAST UPDATE IS PLANNED. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING TO GRADUALLY
DECREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TAF
SITES IN THE SHORT TERM EXCEPT KRDM...KBDN AND PERHAPS KPSC.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN REDEVELOPING NEAR THE CASCADES IN THE
MORNING AFFECTING KYKM AND IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
KYKM. STORMS WILL BEGIN WINDING DOWN AFTER 24/04Z. CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY BE BKN-OVC ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL BUT LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE PROBABLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
15 KTS THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW MORNING EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. AFTER 18Z, WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AFTER 20Z. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE NOW AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR. ALSO
LIFT WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING CALIFORNIA SHORT WAVE AND JET STREAK. BASED
ON THIS EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE NORTHWARD.
JET DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH HAIL
AND WIND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A WHILE LATER TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES.
AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BECOMING BREEZY BY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
MANY AREAS MAY SEE THERE HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BECOMING STEADY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS WIND. 94

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES WILL RIDGE NORTH AND INFLUENCE THE REGIONS WEATHER
WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP INTO THE OREGON CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON
THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA OVER THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WX...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE WETTING RAIN...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH
COULD START NEW FIRES IN VERY DRY FUELS. STORMS HAVE BEGUN
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND WILL
MOVE NORTH INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOME PLACES. AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. RED FLAG WARNINGS THEREFORE
REMAIN IN EFFECT.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  81  53  78 /  50  40  20  10
ALW  65  84  56  79 /  50  40  20  10
PSC  64  84  56  82 /  40  30  20  10
YKM  62  77  53  77 /  40  50  20  10
HRI  64  83  55  80 /  40  30  20  10
ELN  59  74  50  73 /  30  60  30  10
RDM  55  74  42  74 /  50  30  20   0
LGD  57  82  50  72 /  60  40  30  10
GCD  57  83  45  75 /  60  30  20  10
DLS  64  73  56  78 /  40  40  30  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/97/97/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 230542 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1042 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE
THE TREND OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOWS SOME WEAKENING IN THE LAST
HOUR OR TWO...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND PERHAPS ALL NIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THE STORMS
THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME REPORTS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS, PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THE
SITUATION WELL AND NO FORECAST UPDATE IS PLANNED. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING TO GRADUALLY
DECREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TAF
SITES IN THE SHORT TERM EXCEPT KRDM...KBDN AND PERHAPS KPSC.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN REDEVELOPING NEAR THE CASCADES IN THE
MORNING AFFECTING KYKM AND IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
KYKM. STORMS WILL BEGIN WINDING DOWN AFTER 24/04Z. CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY BE BKN-OVC ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL BUT LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE PROBABLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
15 KTS THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW MORNING EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. AFTER 18Z, WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AFTER 20Z. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE NOW AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR. ALSO
LIFT WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING CALIFORNIA SHORT WAVE AND JET STREAK. BASED
ON THIS EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE NORTHWARD.
JET DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH HAIL
AND WIND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A WHILE LATER TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES.
AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BECOMING BREEZY BY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
MANY AREAS MAY SEE THERE HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BECOMING STEADY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS WIND. 94

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES WILL RIDGE NORTH AND INFLUENCE THE REGIONS WEATHER
WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP INTO THE OREGON CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON
THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA OVER THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WX...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE WETTING RAIN...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH
COULD START NEW FIRES IN VERY DRY FUELS. STORMS HAVE BEGUN
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND WILL
MOVE NORTH INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOME PLACES. AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. RED FLAG WARNINGS THEREFORE
REMAIN IN EFFECT.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  81  53  78 /  50  40  20  10
ALW  65  84  56  79 /  50  40  20  10
PSC  64  84  56  82 /  40  30  20  10
YKM  62  77  53  77 /  40  50  20  10
HRI  64  83  55  80 /  40  30  20  10
ELN  59  74  50  73 /  30  60  30  10
RDM  55  74  42  74 /  50  30  20   0
LGD  57  82  50  72 /  60  40  30  10
GCD  57  83  45  75 /  60  30  20  10
DLS  64  73  56  78 /  40  40  30  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/97/97/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 230542 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1042 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE
THE TREND OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOWS SOME WEAKENING IN THE LAST
HOUR OR TWO...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND PERHAPS ALL NIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THE STORMS
THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME REPORTS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS, PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THE
SITUATION WELL AND NO FORECAST UPDATE IS PLANNED. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING TO GRADUALLY
DECREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TAF
SITES IN THE SHORT TERM EXCEPT KRDM...KBDN AND PERHAPS KPSC.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN REDEVELOPING NEAR THE CASCADES IN THE
MORNING AFFECTING KYKM AND IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
KYKM. STORMS WILL BEGIN WINDING DOWN AFTER 24/04Z. CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY BE BKN-OVC ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL BUT LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE PROBABLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
15 KTS THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW MORNING EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. AFTER 18Z, WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AFTER 20Z. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE NOW AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR. ALSO
LIFT WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING CALIFORNIA SHORT WAVE AND JET STREAK. BASED
ON THIS EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE NORTHWARD.
JET DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH HAIL
AND WIND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A WHILE LATER TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES.
AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BECOMING BREEZY BY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
MANY AREAS MAY SEE THERE HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BECOMING STEADY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS WIND. 94

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES WILL RIDGE NORTH AND INFLUENCE THE REGIONS WEATHER
WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP INTO THE OREGON CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON
THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA OVER THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WX...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE WETTING RAIN...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH
COULD START NEW FIRES IN VERY DRY FUELS. STORMS HAVE BEGUN
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND WILL
MOVE NORTH INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOME PLACES. AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. RED FLAG WARNINGS THEREFORE
REMAIN IN EFFECT.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  81  53  78 /  50  40  20  10
ALW  65  84  56  79 /  50  40  20  10
PSC  64  84  56  82 /  40  30  20  10
YKM  62  77  53  77 /  40  50  20  10
HRI  64  83  55  80 /  40  30  20  10
ELN  59  74  50  73 /  30  60  30  10
RDM  55  74  42  74 /  50  30  20   0
LGD  57  82  50  72 /  60  40  30  10
GCD  57  83  45  75 /  60  30  20  10
DLS  64  73  56  78 /  40  40  30  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/97/97/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 230542 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1042 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE
THE TREND OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOWS SOME WEAKENING IN THE LAST
HOUR OR TWO...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND PERHAPS ALL NIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THE STORMS
THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME REPORTS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS, PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THE
SITUATION WELL AND NO FORECAST UPDATE IS PLANNED. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING TO GRADUALLY
DECREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TAF
SITES IN THE SHORT TERM EXCEPT KRDM...KBDN AND PERHAPS KPSC.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN REDEVELOPING NEAR THE CASCADES IN THE
MORNING AFFECTING KYKM AND IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
KYKM. STORMS WILL BEGIN WINDING DOWN AFTER 24/04Z. CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY BE BKN-OVC ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL BUT LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE PROBABLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
15 KTS THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW MORNING EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. AFTER 18Z, WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AFTER 20Z. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE NOW AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR. ALSO
LIFT WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING CALIFORNIA SHORT WAVE AND JET STREAK. BASED
ON THIS EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE NORTHWARD.
JET DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH HAIL
AND WIND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A WHILE LATER TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES.
AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BECOMING BREEZY BY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
MANY AREAS MAY SEE THERE HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BECOMING STEADY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS WIND. 94

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES WILL RIDGE NORTH AND INFLUENCE THE REGIONS WEATHER
WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP INTO THE OREGON CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON
THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA OVER THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WX...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE WETTING RAIN...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH
COULD START NEW FIRES IN VERY DRY FUELS. STORMS HAVE BEGUN
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND WILL
MOVE NORTH INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOME PLACES. AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. RED FLAG WARNINGS THEREFORE
REMAIN IN EFFECT.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  81  53  78 /  50  40  20  10
ALW  65  84  56  79 /  50  40  20  10
PSC  64  84  56  82 /  40  30  20  10
YKM  62  77  53  77 /  40  50  20  10
HRI  64  83  55  80 /  40  30  20  10
ELN  59  74  50  73 /  30  60  30  10
RDM  55  74  42  74 /  50  30  20   0
LGD  57  82  50  72 /  60  40  30  10
GCD  57  83  45  75 /  60  30  20  10
DLS  64  73  56  78 /  40  40  30  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/97/97/82









000
FXUS66 KMFR 230411
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
911 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE APPROXIMATELY 4,500 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ACCORDING TO THE BLM`S LIGHTNING
DETECTION NETWORK. ABOUT 1,200 OF THESE OCCURRED IN JACKSON
COUNTY, ALONE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS WAS REPORTED WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS AS WELL AS SOME
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN,
BUT ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE IS LIKELY TO KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

NO UPDATES ARE BEING SENT OUT AT THIS TIME, AS WE`LL WAIT FOR
STORMS TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT MORE BEFORE CANCELING AND/OR EXPIRING
CURRENT WARNINGS. AT THAT POINT ANY NECESSARY UPDATES WILL BE
MADE. AT THE CURRENT TIME THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS VERY MUCH ON
TRACK. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/00Z TAFS...AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS AT THE COAST WILL FILL IN TONIGHT AND LOWER TO IFR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES THE RES OF THE EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, GUSTY WINDS, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LATE TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING FROM THE COAST
TO THE UMPQUA BASIN.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 829 PM PDT 22 JULY 2014 SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING RAIN AS IT
MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE
COAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (560 DM 500 MB
HEIGHTS) CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN THE BC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL MAKE THE TURN AND HEAD INLAND TOMORROW. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM OVER US REMAINS WARM AND UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY INLAND
FROM THE COAST. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RIGHT NOW AND WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR OREGON
ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
NORTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND, IN ADDITION, CONVECTION IS STARTING
TO INITIATE LOCALLY IN THE EXPECTED SPOTS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU
INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FILL IN OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM AROUND MEDFORD EASTWARD, SO THIS IS
WHERE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS. IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE COAST
OR UMPQUA WILL SEE ANY LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION, THE UPPER JET WILL INCREASE, AND BY THIS EVENING
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 100 KT PLUS JET. AT THIS POINT, WE STAND THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTY,
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. CURRENTLY, STORMS ARE MOVING
NORTH AT AROUND 30 KNOTS, SO WHILE THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN, THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
BY LATE EVENING, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER, BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST SIDE.

AS MENTIONED, THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND TOMORROW. THE BULK OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL WILL BE NORTH OF US, BUT THE SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. INSTABILITY ISN`T GREAT
TOMORROW, BUT THE SIMPLE FACT THAT IT`S LATE JULY AND A FRONT IS
COMING THROUGH MEANS WE`LL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR THUNDER TOMORROW
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO MEAN GUSTY WINDS EAST
OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY THURSDAY AND WE BEGIN TO RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL WEATHER FOR JULY AROUND HERE WHICH MEANS A RETURN OF THE
THERMAL TROUGH AND DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND
AND HEAT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE BACK UP AROUND 100 IN MEDFORD BY
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS MAY MEAN SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK, BUT IT IS A LITTLE FAR
OUT TO GET SPECIFIC. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/TRW/SBN







000
FXUS66 KMFR 230411
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
911 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE APPROXIMATELY 4,500 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ACCORDING TO THE BLM`S LIGHTNING
DETECTION NETWORK. ABOUT 1,200 OF THESE OCCURRED IN JACKSON
COUNTY, ALONE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS WAS REPORTED WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS AS WELL AS SOME
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN,
BUT ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE IS LIKELY TO KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

NO UPDATES ARE BEING SENT OUT AT THIS TIME, AS WE`LL WAIT FOR
STORMS TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT MORE BEFORE CANCELING AND/OR EXPIRING
CURRENT WARNINGS. AT THAT POINT ANY NECESSARY UPDATES WILL BE
MADE. AT THE CURRENT TIME THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS VERY MUCH ON
TRACK. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/00Z TAFS...AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS AT THE COAST WILL FILL IN TONIGHT AND LOWER TO IFR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES THE RES OF THE EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, GUSTY WINDS, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LATE TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING FROM THE COAST
TO THE UMPQUA BASIN.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 829 PM PDT 22 JULY 2014 SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING RAIN AS IT
MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE
COAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (560 DM 500 MB
HEIGHTS) CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN THE BC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL MAKE THE TURN AND HEAD INLAND TOMORROW. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM OVER US REMAINS WARM AND UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY INLAND
FROM THE COAST. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RIGHT NOW AND WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR OREGON
ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
NORTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND, IN ADDITION, CONVECTION IS STARTING
TO INITIATE LOCALLY IN THE EXPECTED SPOTS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU
INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FILL IN OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM AROUND MEDFORD EASTWARD, SO THIS IS
WHERE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS. IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE COAST
OR UMPQUA WILL SEE ANY LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION, THE UPPER JET WILL INCREASE, AND BY THIS EVENING
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 100 KT PLUS JET. AT THIS POINT, WE STAND THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTY,
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. CURRENTLY, STORMS ARE MOVING
NORTH AT AROUND 30 KNOTS, SO WHILE THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN, THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
BY LATE EVENING, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER, BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST SIDE.

AS MENTIONED, THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND TOMORROW. THE BULK OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL WILL BE NORTH OF US, BUT THE SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. INSTABILITY ISN`T GREAT
TOMORROW, BUT THE SIMPLE FACT THAT IT`S LATE JULY AND A FRONT IS
COMING THROUGH MEANS WE`LL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR THUNDER TOMORROW
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO MEAN GUSTY WINDS EAST
OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY THURSDAY AND WE BEGIN TO RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL WEATHER FOR JULY AROUND HERE WHICH MEANS A RETURN OF THE
THERMAL TROUGH AND DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND
AND HEAT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE BACK UP AROUND 100 IN MEDFORD BY
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS MAY MEAN SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK, BUT IT IS A LITTLE FAR
OUT TO GET SPECIFIC. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/TRW/SBN







000
FXUS66 KMFR 230411
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
911 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE APPROXIMATELY 4,500 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ACCORDING TO THE BLM`S LIGHTNING
DETECTION NETWORK. ABOUT 1,200 OF THESE OCCURRED IN JACKSON
COUNTY, ALONE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS WAS REPORTED WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS AS WELL AS SOME
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN,
BUT ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE IS LIKELY TO KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

NO UPDATES ARE BEING SENT OUT AT THIS TIME, AS WE`LL WAIT FOR
STORMS TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT MORE BEFORE CANCELING AND/OR EXPIRING
CURRENT WARNINGS. AT THAT POINT ANY NECESSARY UPDATES WILL BE
MADE. AT THE CURRENT TIME THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS VERY MUCH ON
TRACK. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/00Z TAFS...AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS AT THE COAST WILL FILL IN TONIGHT AND LOWER TO IFR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES THE RES OF THE EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, GUSTY WINDS, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LATE TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING FROM THE COAST
TO THE UMPQUA BASIN.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 829 PM PDT 22 JULY 2014 SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING RAIN AS IT
MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE
COAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (560 DM 500 MB
HEIGHTS) CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN THE BC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL MAKE THE TURN AND HEAD INLAND TOMORROW. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM OVER US REMAINS WARM AND UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY INLAND
FROM THE COAST. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RIGHT NOW AND WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR OREGON
ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
NORTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND, IN ADDITION, CONVECTION IS STARTING
TO INITIATE LOCALLY IN THE EXPECTED SPOTS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU
INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FILL IN OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM AROUND MEDFORD EASTWARD, SO THIS IS
WHERE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS. IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE COAST
OR UMPQUA WILL SEE ANY LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION, THE UPPER JET WILL INCREASE, AND BY THIS EVENING
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 100 KT PLUS JET. AT THIS POINT, WE STAND THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTY,
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. CURRENTLY, STORMS ARE MOVING
NORTH AT AROUND 30 KNOTS, SO WHILE THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN, THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
BY LATE EVENING, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER, BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST SIDE.

AS MENTIONED, THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND TOMORROW. THE BULK OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL WILL BE NORTH OF US, BUT THE SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. INSTABILITY ISN`T GREAT
TOMORROW, BUT THE SIMPLE FACT THAT IT`S LATE JULY AND A FRONT IS
COMING THROUGH MEANS WE`LL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR THUNDER TOMORROW
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO MEAN GUSTY WINDS EAST
OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY THURSDAY AND WE BEGIN TO RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL WEATHER FOR JULY AROUND HERE WHICH MEANS A RETURN OF THE
THERMAL TROUGH AND DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND
AND HEAT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE BACK UP AROUND 100 IN MEDFORD BY
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS MAY MEAN SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK, BUT IT IS A LITTLE FAR
OUT TO GET SPECIFIC. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/TRW/SBN







000
FXUS66 KMFR 230411
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
911 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE APPROXIMATELY 4,500 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ACCORDING TO THE BLM`S LIGHTNING
DETECTION NETWORK. ABOUT 1,200 OF THESE OCCURRED IN JACKSON
COUNTY, ALONE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS WAS REPORTED WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS AS WELL AS SOME
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN,
BUT ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE IS LIKELY TO KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

NO UPDATES ARE BEING SENT OUT AT THIS TIME, AS WE`LL WAIT FOR
STORMS TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT MORE BEFORE CANCELING AND/OR EXPIRING
CURRENT WARNINGS. AT THAT POINT ANY NECESSARY UPDATES WILL BE
MADE. AT THE CURRENT TIME THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS VERY MUCH ON
TRACK. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/00Z TAFS...AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS AT THE COAST WILL FILL IN TONIGHT AND LOWER TO IFR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES THE RES OF THE EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, GUSTY WINDS, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LATE TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING FROM THE COAST
TO THE UMPQUA BASIN.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 829 PM PDT 22 JULY 2014 SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING RAIN AS IT
MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE
COAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (560 DM 500 MB
HEIGHTS) CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN THE BC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL MAKE THE TURN AND HEAD INLAND TOMORROW. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM OVER US REMAINS WARM AND UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY INLAND
FROM THE COAST. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RIGHT NOW AND WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR OREGON
ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
NORTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND, IN ADDITION, CONVECTION IS STARTING
TO INITIATE LOCALLY IN THE EXPECTED SPOTS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU
INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FILL IN OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM AROUND MEDFORD EASTWARD, SO THIS IS
WHERE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS. IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE COAST
OR UMPQUA WILL SEE ANY LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION, THE UPPER JET WILL INCREASE, AND BY THIS EVENING
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 100 KT PLUS JET. AT THIS POINT, WE STAND THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTY,
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. CURRENTLY, STORMS ARE MOVING
NORTH AT AROUND 30 KNOTS, SO WHILE THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN, THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
BY LATE EVENING, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER, BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST SIDE.

AS MENTIONED, THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND TOMORROW. THE BULK OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL WILL BE NORTH OF US, BUT THE SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. INSTABILITY ISN`T GREAT
TOMORROW, BUT THE SIMPLE FACT THAT IT`S LATE JULY AND A FRONT IS
COMING THROUGH MEANS WE`LL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR THUNDER TOMORROW
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO MEAN GUSTY WINDS EAST
OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY THURSDAY AND WE BEGIN TO RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL WEATHER FOR JULY AROUND HERE WHICH MEANS A RETURN OF THE
THERMAL TROUGH AND DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND
AND HEAT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE BACK UP AROUND 100 IN MEDFORD BY
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS MAY MEAN SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK, BUT IT IS A LITTLE FAR
OUT TO GET SPECIFIC. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/TRW/SBN







000
FXUS66 KPQR 230347
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
847 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CLOUDY AND WET START TO
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AND MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90F LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONE STORM WAS PARTICULARLY STRONG AND
SEVERAL SEVER THUNDERSTORMS WERE ISSUED FOR IT AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS THERE
ARE PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES...WHICH  AN
ISOLATED CELL MAY SKIRT WEST OF THE CASCADES AT TIMES THIS EVENING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING...BUT THE THREAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS A STRONG AND COOL UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THIS EVENING...A VORT MAX...APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEAR THE BAY AREA WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS CREEPING INTO THE
CASCADES. A DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO FIRE EAST OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES NEAR BEND. WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CREST...BUT THERE STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH...IF ANY...WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST
RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY CASCADES...BUT IF THE CURRENT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER TOO MUCH LONGER THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY ENTIRELY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE LATTER IDEA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
ANY STORMS DO BREAK THE CAP ON OUR SIDE OF THE CREST...40-45 KT OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-750 J/KG WILL AID STORM
ORGANIZATION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS OF CONCERN IF
STORMS WERE TO MATERIALIZE. AGAIN...THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO
EXPERIENCE SUCH STORMS IS PRIMARILY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST...SOUTH OF
MOUNT JEFFERSON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W...DUE
WEST OF OREGON...WILL ELONGATE FURTHER TONIGHT...TURNING THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHWEST OREGON SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY. THE NAM
BRINGS A PIECE OF THE VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY NEAR 130W AND 35N ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH NEGATIVE THETAE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500MB ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT REGION OF TWO UPPER LEVEL JETS...WE MAY SEE
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THE
THUNDER MENTION WAS LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. THE LATEST HRRR
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND
POINTS EAST...BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELONGATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 135W WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OREGON COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE DYNAMICS
MAY LEAD TO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL FRONT MAY LEAD TO A RATHER
ABRUPT END TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANY CLEARING WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUICKLY...AND A SPRING-LIKE PATTERN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENSUE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS
INCREASED TO CHANCE WORDING.

WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST WEDNESDAY THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SURFACE WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO HAVE A
BIT MORE OF A S TO SSE COMPONENT THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. COMBINED
WITH WSW WINDS OF 25 KT AT 900MB AND 40KT AT 500MB...A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING UPDRAFT COULD ROTATE BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WORTH MONITORING. THE MORE EXPECTED HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WERE ADDED TO THE THUNDER WORDING IN THE
GRIDS.

ON THE FIRE FRONT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY PUSHING AN INCH OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TOWARDS
LANE COUNTY...BUT CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING AROUND 10Z WED. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AFT 12Z...
WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT POSSIBLE. LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN...AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WED. THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT AND AN OVERCAST DECK ABOVE
5000 FT. EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE AFT 12Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
LOW VFR TO HIGHER MVFR. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING KPDX AND APPROACHES MAINLY AFTER 12Z WED AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WED EVENING. CULLEN/27

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TONIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH S WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL INNER WATERS AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS THE
SURFACE LOW PUSHES ACROSS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER SO WILL LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE NEXT MODEL CYCLE
BEFORE POTENTIALLY RAISING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LATER THIS
WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS
OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230347
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
847 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CLOUDY AND WET START TO
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AND MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90F LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONE STORM WAS PARTICULARLY STRONG AND
SEVERAL SEVER THUNDERSTORMS WERE ISSUED FOR IT AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS THERE
ARE PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES...WHICH  AN
ISOLATED CELL MAY SKIRT WEST OF THE CASCADES AT TIMES THIS EVENING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING...BUT THE THREAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS A STRONG AND COOL UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THIS EVENING...A VORT MAX...APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEAR THE BAY AREA WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS CREEPING INTO THE
CASCADES. A DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO FIRE EAST OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES NEAR BEND. WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CREST...BUT THERE STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH...IF ANY...WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST
RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY CASCADES...BUT IF THE CURRENT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER TOO MUCH LONGER THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY ENTIRELY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE LATTER IDEA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
ANY STORMS DO BREAK THE CAP ON OUR SIDE OF THE CREST...40-45 KT OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-750 J/KG WILL AID STORM
ORGANIZATION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS OF CONCERN IF
STORMS WERE TO MATERIALIZE. AGAIN...THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO
EXPERIENCE SUCH STORMS IS PRIMARILY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST...SOUTH OF
MOUNT JEFFERSON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W...DUE
WEST OF OREGON...WILL ELONGATE FURTHER TONIGHT...TURNING THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHWEST OREGON SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY. THE NAM
BRINGS A PIECE OF THE VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY NEAR 130W AND 35N ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH NEGATIVE THETAE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500MB ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT REGION OF TWO UPPER LEVEL JETS...WE MAY SEE
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THE
THUNDER MENTION WAS LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. THE LATEST HRRR
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND
POINTS EAST...BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELONGATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 135W WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OREGON COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE DYNAMICS
MAY LEAD TO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL FRONT MAY LEAD TO A RATHER
ABRUPT END TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANY CLEARING WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUICKLY...AND A SPRING-LIKE PATTERN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENSUE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS
INCREASED TO CHANCE WORDING.

WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST WEDNESDAY THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SURFACE WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO HAVE A
BIT MORE OF A S TO SSE COMPONENT THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. COMBINED
WITH WSW WINDS OF 25 KT AT 900MB AND 40KT AT 500MB...A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING UPDRAFT COULD ROTATE BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WORTH MONITORING. THE MORE EXPECTED HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WERE ADDED TO THE THUNDER WORDING IN THE
GRIDS.

ON THE FIRE FRONT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY PUSHING AN INCH OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TOWARDS
LANE COUNTY...BUT CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING AROUND 10Z WED. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AFT 12Z...
WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT POSSIBLE. LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN...AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WED. THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT AND AN OVERCAST DECK ABOVE
5000 FT. EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE AFT 12Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
LOW VFR TO HIGHER MVFR. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING KPDX AND APPROACHES MAINLY AFTER 12Z WED AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WED EVENING. CULLEN/27

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TONIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH S WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL INNER WATERS AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS THE
SURFACE LOW PUSHES ACROSS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER SO WILL LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE NEXT MODEL CYCLE
BEFORE POTENTIALLY RAISING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LATER THIS
WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS
OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230347
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
847 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CLOUDY AND WET START TO
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AND MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90F LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONE STORM WAS PARTICULARLY STRONG AND
SEVERAL SEVER THUNDERSTORMS WERE ISSUED FOR IT AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS THERE
ARE PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES...WHICH  AN
ISOLATED CELL MAY SKIRT WEST OF THE CASCADES AT TIMES THIS EVENING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING...BUT THE THREAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS A STRONG AND COOL UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THIS EVENING...A VORT MAX...APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEAR THE BAY AREA WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS CREEPING INTO THE
CASCADES. A DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO FIRE EAST OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES NEAR BEND. WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CREST...BUT THERE STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH...IF ANY...WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST
RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY CASCADES...BUT IF THE CURRENT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER TOO MUCH LONGER THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY ENTIRELY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE LATTER IDEA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
ANY STORMS DO BREAK THE CAP ON OUR SIDE OF THE CREST...40-45 KT OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-750 J/KG WILL AID STORM
ORGANIZATION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS OF CONCERN IF
STORMS WERE TO MATERIALIZE. AGAIN...THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO
EXPERIENCE SUCH STORMS IS PRIMARILY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST...SOUTH OF
MOUNT JEFFERSON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W...DUE
WEST OF OREGON...WILL ELONGATE FURTHER TONIGHT...TURNING THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHWEST OREGON SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY. THE NAM
BRINGS A PIECE OF THE VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY NEAR 130W AND 35N ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH NEGATIVE THETAE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500MB ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT REGION OF TWO UPPER LEVEL JETS...WE MAY SEE
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THE
THUNDER MENTION WAS LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. THE LATEST HRRR
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND
POINTS EAST...BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELONGATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 135W WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OREGON COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE DYNAMICS
MAY LEAD TO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL FRONT MAY LEAD TO A RATHER
ABRUPT END TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANY CLEARING WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUICKLY...AND A SPRING-LIKE PATTERN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENSUE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS
INCREASED TO CHANCE WORDING.

WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST WEDNESDAY THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SURFACE WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO HAVE A
BIT MORE OF A S TO SSE COMPONENT THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. COMBINED
WITH WSW WINDS OF 25 KT AT 900MB AND 40KT AT 500MB...A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING UPDRAFT COULD ROTATE BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WORTH MONITORING. THE MORE EXPECTED HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WERE ADDED TO THE THUNDER WORDING IN THE
GRIDS.

ON THE FIRE FRONT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY PUSHING AN INCH OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TOWARDS
LANE COUNTY...BUT CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING AROUND 10Z WED. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AFT 12Z...
WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT POSSIBLE. LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN...AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WED. THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT AND AN OVERCAST DECK ABOVE
5000 FT. EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE AFT 12Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
LOW VFR TO HIGHER MVFR. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING KPDX AND APPROACHES MAINLY AFTER 12Z WED AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WED EVENING. CULLEN/27

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TONIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH S WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL INNER WATERS AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS THE
SURFACE LOW PUSHES ACROSS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER SO WILL LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE NEXT MODEL CYCLE
BEFORE POTENTIALLY RAISING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LATER THIS
WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS
OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230347
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
847 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CLOUDY AND WET START TO
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AND MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90F LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONE STORM WAS PARTICULARLY STRONG AND
SEVERAL SEVER THUNDERSTORMS WERE ISSUED FOR IT AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS THERE
ARE PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES...WHICH  AN
ISOLATED CELL MAY SKIRT WEST OF THE CASCADES AT TIMES THIS EVENING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING...BUT THE THREAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS A STRONG AND COOL UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THIS EVENING...A VORT MAX...APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEAR THE BAY AREA WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS CREEPING INTO THE
CASCADES. A DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO FIRE EAST OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES NEAR BEND. WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CREST...BUT THERE STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH...IF ANY...WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST
RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY CASCADES...BUT IF THE CURRENT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER TOO MUCH LONGER THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY ENTIRELY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE LATTER IDEA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
ANY STORMS DO BREAK THE CAP ON OUR SIDE OF THE CREST...40-45 KT OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-750 J/KG WILL AID STORM
ORGANIZATION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS OF CONCERN IF
STORMS WERE TO MATERIALIZE. AGAIN...THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO
EXPERIENCE SUCH STORMS IS PRIMARILY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST...SOUTH OF
MOUNT JEFFERSON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W...DUE
WEST OF OREGON...WILL ELONGATE FURTHER TONIGHT...TURNING THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHWEST OREGON SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY. THE NAM
BRINGS A PIECE OF THE VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY NEAR 130W AND 35N ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH NEGATIVE THETAE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500MB ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT REGION OF TWO UPPER LEVEL JETS...WE MAY SEE
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THE
THUNDER MENTION WAS LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. THE LATEST HRRR
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND
POINTS EAST...BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELONGATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 135W WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OREGON COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE DYNAMICS
MAY LEAD TO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL FRONT MAY LEAD TO A RATHER
ABRUPT END TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANY CLEARING WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUICKLY...AND A SPRING-LIKE PATTERN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENSUE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS
INCREASED TO CHANCE WORDING.

WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST WEDNESDAY THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SURFACE WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO HAVE A
BIT MORE OF A S TO SSE COMPONENT THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. COMBINED
WITH WSW WINDS OF 25 KT AT 900MB AND 40KT AT 500MB...A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING UPDRAFT COULD ROTATE BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WORTH MONITORING. THE MORE EXPECTED HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WERE ADDED TO THE THUNDER WORDING IN THE
GRIDS.

ON THE FIRE FRONT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY PUSHING AN INCH OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TOWARDS
LANE COUNTY...BUT CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING AROUND 10Z WED. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AFT 12Z...
WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT POSSIBLE. LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN...AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WED. THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT AND AN OVERCAST DECK ABOVE
5000 FT. EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE AFT 12Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
LOW VFR TO HIGHER MVFR. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING KPDX AND APPROACHES MAINLY AFTER 12Z WED AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WED EVENING. CULLEN/27

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TONIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH S WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL INNER WATERS AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS THE
SURFACE LOW PUSHES ACROSS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER SO WILL LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE NEXT MODEL CYCLE
BEFORE POTENTIALLY RAISING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LATER THIS
WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS
OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230347
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
847 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CLOUDY AND WET START TO
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AND MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90F LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONE STORM WAS PARTICULARLY STRONG AND
SEVERAL SEVER THUNDERSTORMS WERE ISSUED FOR IT AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS THERE
ARE PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES...WHICH  AN
ISOLATED CELL MAY SKIRT WEST OF THE CASCADES AT TIMES THIS EVENING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING...BUT THE THREAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS A STRONG AND COOL UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THIS EVENING...A VORT MAX...APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEAR THE BAY AREA WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS CREEPING INTO THE
CASCADES. A DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO FIRE EAST OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES NEAR BEND. WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CREST...BUT THERE STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH...IF ANY...WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST
RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY CASCADES...BUT IF THE CURRENT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER TOO MUCH LONGER THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY ENTIRELY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE LATTER IDEA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
ANY STORMS DO BREAK THE CAP ON OUR SIDE OF THE CREST...40-45 KT OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-750 J/KG WILL AID STORM
ORGANIZATION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS OF CONCERN IF
STORMS WERE TO MATERIALIZE. AGAIN...THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO
EXPERIENCE SUCH STORMS IS PRIMARILY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST...SOUTH OF
MOUNT JEFFERSON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W...DUE
WEST OF OREGON...WILL ELONGATE FURTHER TONIGHT...TURNING THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHWEST OREGON SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY. THE NAM
BRINGS A PIECE OF THE VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY NEAR 130W AND 35N ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH NEGATIVE THETAE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500MB ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT REGION OF TWO UPPER LEVEL JETS...WE MAY SEE
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THE
THUNDER MENTION WAS LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. THE LATEST HRRR
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND
POINTS EAST...BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELONGATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 135W WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OREGON COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE DYNAMICS
MAY LEAD TO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL FRONT MAY LEAD TO A RATHER
ABRUPT END TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANY CLEARING WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUICKLY...AND A SPRING-LIKE PATTERN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENSUE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS
INCREASED TO CHANCE WORDING.

WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST WEDNESDAY THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SURFACE WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO HAVE A
BIT MORE OF A S TO SSE COMPONENT THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. COMBINED
WITH WSW WINDS OF 25 KT AT 900MB AND 40KT AT 500MB...A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING UPDRAFT COULD ROTATE BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WORTH MONITORING. THE MORE EXPECTED HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WERE ADDED TO THE THUNDER WORDING IN THE
GRIDS.

ON THE FIRE FRONT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY PUSHING AN INCH OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TOWARDS
LANE COUNTY...BUT CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING AROUND 10Z WED. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AFT 12Z...
WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT POSSIBLE. LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN...AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WED. THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT AND AN OVERCAST DECK ABOVE
5000 FT. EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE AFT 12Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
LOW VFR TO HIGHER MVFR. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING KPDX AND APPROACHES MAINLY AFTER 12Z WED AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WED EVENING. CULLEN/27

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TONIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH S WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL INNER WATERS AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS THE
SURFACE LOW PUSHES ACROSS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER SO WILL LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE NEXT MODEL CYCLE
BEFORE POTENTIALLY RAISING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LATER THIS
WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS
OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230347
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
847 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CLOUDY AND WET START TO
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AND MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90F LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONE STORM WAS PARTICULARLY STRONG AND
SEVERAL SEVER THUNDERSTORMS WERE ISSUED FOR IT AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS THERE
ARE PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES...WHICH  AN
ISOLATED CELL MAY SKIRT WEST OF THE CASCADES AT TIMES THIS EVENING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING...BUT THE THREAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS A STRONG AND COOL UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THIS EVENING...A VORT MAX...APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEAR THE BAY AREA WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS CREEPING INTO THE
CASCADES. A DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO FIRE EAST OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES NEAR BEND. WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CREST...BUT THERE STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH...IF ANY...WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST
RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY CASCADES...BUT IF THE CURRENT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER TOO MUCH LONGER THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY ENTIRELY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE LATTER IDEA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
ANY STORMS DO BREAK THE CAP ON OUR SIDE OF THE CREST...40-45 KT OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-750 J/KG WILL AID STORM
ORGANIZATION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS OF CONCERN IF
STORMS WERE TO MATERIALIZE. AGAIN...THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO
EXPERIENCE SUCH STORMS IS PRIMARILY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST...SOUTH OF
MOUNT JEFFERSON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W...DUE
WEST OF OREGON...WILL ELONGATE FURTHER TONIGHT...TURNING THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHWEST OREGON SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY. THE NAM
BRINGS A PIECE OF THE VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY NEAR 130W AND 35N ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH NEGATIVE THETAE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500MB ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT REGION OF TWO UPPER LEVEL JETS...WE MAY SEE
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THE
THUNDER MENTION WAS LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. THE LATEST HRRR
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND
POINTS EAST...BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELONGATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 135W WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OREGON COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE DYNAMICS
MAY LEAD TO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL FRONT MAY LEAD TO A RATHER
ABRUPT END TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANY CLEARING WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUICKLY...AND A SPRING-LIKE PATTERN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENSUE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS
INCREASED TO CHANCE WORDING.

WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST WEDNESDAY THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SURFACE WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO HAVE A
BIT MORE OF A S TO SSE COMPONENT THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. COMBINED
WITH WSW WINDS OF 25 KT AT 900MB AND 40KT AT 500MB...A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING UPDRAFT COULD ROTATE BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WORTH MONITORING. THE MORE EXPECTED HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WERE ADDED TO THE THUNDER WORDING IN THE
GRIDS.

ON THE FIRE FRONT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY PUSHING AN INCH OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TOWARDS
LANE COUNTY...BUT CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING AROUND 10Z WED. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AFT 12Z...
WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT POSSIBLE. LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN...AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WED. THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT AND AN OVERCAST DECK ABOVE
5000 FT. EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE AFT 12Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
LOW VFR TO HIGHER MVFR. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING KPDX AND APPROACHES MAINLY AFTER 12Z WED AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WED EVENING. CULLEN/27

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TONIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH S WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL INNER WATERS AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS THE
SURFACE LOW PUSHES ACROSS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER SO WILL LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE NEXT MODEL CYCLE
BEFORE POTENTIALLY RAISING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LATER THIS
WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS
OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230347
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
847 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CLOUDY AND WET START TO
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AND MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90F LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONE STORM WAS PARTICULARLY STRONG AND
SEVERAL SEVER THUNDERSTORMS WERE ISSUED FOR IT AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS THERE
ARE PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES...WHICH  AN
ISOLATED CELL MAY SKIRT WEST OF THE CASCADES AT TIMES THIS EVENING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING...BUT THE THREAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS A STRONG AND COOL UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THIS EVENING...A VORT MAX...APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEAR THE BAY AREA WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS CREEPING INTO THE
CASCADES. A DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO FIRE EAST OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES NEAR BEND. WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CREST...BUT THERE STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH...IF ANY...WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST
RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY CASCADES...BUT IF THE CURRENT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER TOO MUCH LONGER THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY ENTIRELY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE LATTER IDEA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
ANY STORMS DO BREAK THE CAP ON OUR SIDE OF THE CREST...40-45 KT OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-750 J/KG WILL AID STORM
ORGANIZATION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS OF CONCERN IF
STORMS WERE TO MATERIALIZE. AGAIN...THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO
EXPERIENCE SUCH STORMS IS PRIMARILY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST...SOUTH OF
MOUNT JEFFERSON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W...DUE
WEST OF OREGON...WILL ELONGATE FURTHER TONIGHT...TURNING THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHWEST OREGON SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY. THE NAM
BRINGS A PIECE OF THE VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY NEAR 130W AND 35N ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH NEGATIVE THETAE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500MB ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT REGION OF TWO UPPER LEVEL JETS...WE MAY SEE
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THE
THUNDER MENTION WAS LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. THE LATEST HRRR
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND
POINTS EAST...BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELONGATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 135W WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OREGON COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE DYNAMICS
MAY LEAD TO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL FRONT MAY LEAD TO A RATHER
ABRUPT END TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANY CLEARING WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUICKLY...AND A SPRING-LIKE PATTERN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENSUE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS
INCREASED TO CHANCE WORDING.

WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST WEDNESDAY THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SURFACE WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO HAVE A
BIT MORE OF A S TO SSE COMPONENT THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. COMBINED
WITH WSW WINDS OF 25 KT AT 900MB AND 40KT AT 500MB...A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING UPDRAFT COULD ROTATE BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WORTH MONITORING. THE MORE EXPECTED HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WERE ADDED TO THE THUNDER WORDING IN THE
GRIDS.

ON THE FIRE FRONT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY PUSHING AN INCH OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TOWARDS
LANE COUNTY...BUT CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING AROUND 10Z WED. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AFT 12Z...
WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT POSSIBLE. LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN...AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WED. THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT AND AN OVERCAST DECK ABOVE
5000 FT. EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE AFT 12Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
LOW VFR TO HIGHER MVFR. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING KPDX AND APPROACHES MAINLY AFTER 12Z WED AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WED EVENING. CULLEN/27

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TONIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH S WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL INNER WATERS AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS THE
SURFACE LOW PUSHES ACROSS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER SO WILL LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE NEXT MODEL CYCLE
BEFORE POTENTIALLY RAISING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LATER THIS
WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS
OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230347
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
847 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CLOUDY AND WET START TO
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AND MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90F LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONE STORM WAS PARTICULARLY STRONG AND
SEVERAL SEVER THUNDERSTORMS WERE ISSUED FOR IT AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS THERE
ARE PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES...WHICH  AN
ISOLATED CELL MAY SKIRT WEST OF THE CASCADES AT TIMES THIS EVENING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING...BUT THE THREAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS A STRONG AND COOL UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THIS EVENING...A VORT MAX...APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEAR THE BAY AREA WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS CREEPING INTO THE
CASCADES. A DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO FIRE EAST OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES NEAR BEND. WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CREST...BUT THERE STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH...IF ANY...WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST
RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY CASCADES...BUT IF THE CURRENT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER TOO MUCH LONGER THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY ENTIRELY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE LATTER IDEA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
ANY STORMS DO BREAK THE CAP ON OUR SIDE OF THE CREST...40-45 KT OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-750 J/KG WILL AID STORM
ORGANIZATION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS OF CONCERN IF
STORMS WERE TO MATERIALIZE. AGAIN...THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO
EXPERIENCE SUCH STORMS IS PRIMARILY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST...SOUTH OF
MOUNT JEFFERSON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W...DUE
WEST OF OREGON...WILL ELONGATE FURTHER TONIGHT...TURNING THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHWEST OREGON SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY. THE NAM
BRINGS A PIECE OF THE VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY NEAR 130W AND 35N ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH NEGATIVE THETAE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500MB ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT REGION OF TWO UPPER LEVEL JETS...WE MAY SEE
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THE
THUNDER MENTION WAS LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. THE LATEST HRRR
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND
POINTS EAST...BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELONGATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 135W WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OREGON COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE DYNAMICS
MAY LEAD TO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL FRONT MAY LEAD TO A RATHER
ABRUPT END TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANY CLEARING WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUICKLY...AND A SPRING-LIKE PATTERN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENSUE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS
INCREASED TO CHANCE WORDING.

WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST WEDNESDAY THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SURFACE WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO HAVE A
BIT MORE OF A S TO SSE COMPONENT THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. COMBINED
WITH WSW WINDS OF 25 KT AT 900MB AND 40KT AT 500MB...A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING UPDRAFT COULD ROTATE BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WORTH MONITORING. THE MORE EXPECTED HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WERE ADDED TO THE THUNDER WORDING IN THE
GRIDS.

ON THE FIRE FRONT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY PUSHING AN INCH OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TOWARDS
LANE COUNTY...BUT CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING AROUND 10Z WED. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AFT 12Z...
WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT POSSIBLE. LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN...AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WED. THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT AND AN OVERCAST DECK ABOVE
5000 FT. EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE AFT 12Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
LOW VFR TO HIGHER MVFR. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING KPDX AND APPROACHES MAINLY AFTER 12Z WED AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WED EVENING. CULLEN/27

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TONIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH S WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL INNER WATERS AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS THE
SURFACE LOW PUSHES ACROSS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER SO WILL LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE NEXT MODEL CYCLE
BEFORE POTENTIALLY RAISING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LATER THIS
WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS
OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 230321
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
821 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE
THE TREND OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOWS SOME WEAKENING IN THE LAST
HOUR OR TWO...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND PERHAPS ALL NIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THE STORMS
THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME REPORTS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS, PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THE
SITUATION WELL AND NO FORECAST UPDATE IS PLANNED. PERRY


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE NOW AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR. ALSO
LIFT WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING CALIFORNIA SHORT WAVE AND JET STREAK. BASED
ON THIS EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE NORTHWARD.
JET DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH HAIL
AND WIND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A WHILE LATER TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES.
AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BECOMING BREEZY BY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
MANY AREAS MAY SEE THERE HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BECOMING STEADY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS WIND. 94

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES WILL RIDGE NORTH AND INFLUENCE THE REGIONS WEATHER
WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP INTO THE OREGON CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON
THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA OVER THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...LCL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
AND ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL OREGON UNTIL 04Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR TAF SITES WILL CREATE AREAS OF MVFR AND
LCL IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR
AFTER 10Z FOR ALL TAF SITES ONLY TO RETURN TO LCL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
AND NEAR KYKM AFTER 15Z.

FIRE WX...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE WETTING RAIN...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH
COULD START NEW FIRES IN VERY DRY FUELS. STORMS HAVE BEGUN
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND WILL
MOVE NORTH INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOME PLACES. AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. RED FLAG WARNINGS THEREFORE
REMAIN IN EFFECT.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  81  53  78 /  50  40  20  10
ALW  65  84  56  79 /  50  40  20  10
PSC  64  84  56  82 /  40  30  20  10
YKM  62  77  53  77 /  40  50  20  10
HRI  64  83  55  80 /  40  30  20  10
ELN  59  74  50  73 /  30  60  30  10
RDM  55  74  42  74 /  50  30  20   0
LGD  57  82  50  72 /  60  40  30  10
GCD  57  83  45  75 /  60  30  20  10
DLS  64  73  56  78 /  40  40  30  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/97/97/82





000
FXUS66 KPDT 230321
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
821 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE
THE TREND OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOWS SOME WEAKENING IN THE LAST
HOUR OR TWO...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND PERHAPS ALL NIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THE STORMS
THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME REPORTS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS, PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THE
SITUATION WELL AND NO FORECAST UPDATE IS PLANNED. PERRY


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE NOW AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR. ALSO
LIFT WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING CALIFORNIA SHORT WAVE AND JET STREAK. BASED
ON THIS EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE NORTHWARD.
JET DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH HAIL
AND WIND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A WHILE LATER TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES.
AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BECOMING BREEZY BY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
MANY AREAS MAY SEE THERE HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BECOMING STEADY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS WIND. 94

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES WILL RIDGE NORTH AND INFLUENCE THE REGIONS WEATHER
WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP INTO THE OREGON CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON
THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA OVER THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...LCL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
AND ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL OREGON UNTIL 04Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR TAF SITES WILL CREATE AREAS OF MVFR AND
LCL IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR
AFTER 10Z FOR ALL TAF SITES ONLY TO RETURN TO LCL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
AND NEAR KYKM AFTER 15Z.

FIRE WX...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE WETTING RAIN...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH
COULD START NEW FIRES IN VERY DRY FUELS. STORMS HAVE BEGUN
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND WILL
MOVE NORTH INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOME PLACES. AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. RED FLAG WARNINGS THEREFORE
REMAIN IN EFFECT.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  81  53  78 /  50  40  20  10
ALW  65  84  56  79 /  50  40  20  10
PSC  64  84  56  82 /  40  30  20  10
YKM  62  77  53  77 /  40  50  20  10
HRI  64  83  55  80 /  40  30  20  10
ELN  59  74  50  73 /  30  60  30  10
RDM  55  74  42  74 /  50  30  20   0
LGD  57  82  50  72 /  60  40  30  10
GCD  57  83  45  75 /  60  30  20  10
DLS  64  73  56  78 /  40  40  30  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/97/97/82





000
FXUS66 KPDT 230321
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
821 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE
THE TREND OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOWS SOME WEAKENING IN THE LAST
HOUR OR TWO...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND PERHAPS ALL NIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THE STORMS
THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME REPORTS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS, PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THE
SITUATION WELL AND NO FORECAST UPDATE IS PLANNED. PERRY


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE NOW AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR. ALSO
LIFT WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING CALIFORNIA SHORT WAVE AND JET STREAK. BASED
ON THIS EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE NORTHWARD.
JET DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH HAIL
AND WIND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A WHILE LATER TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES.
AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BECOMING BREEZY BY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
MANY AREAS MAY SEE THERE HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BECOMING STEADY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS WIND. 94

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES WILL RIDGE NORTH AND INFLUENCE THE REGIONS WEATHER
WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP INTO THE OREGON CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON
THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA OVER THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...LCL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
AND ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL OREGON UNTIL 04Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR TAF SITES WILL CREATE AREAS OF MVFR AND
LCL IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR
AFTER 10Z FOR ALL TAF SITES ONLY TO RETURN TO LCL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
AND NEAR KYKM AFTER 15Z.

FIRE WX...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE WETTING RAIN...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH
COULD START NEW FIRES IN VERY DRY FUELS. STORMS HAVE BEGUN
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND WILL
MOVE NORTH INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOME PLACES. AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. RED FLAG WARNINGS THEREFORE
REMAIN IN EFFECT.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  81  53  78 /  50  40  20  10
ALW  65  84  56  79 /  50  40  20  10
PSC  64  84  56  82 /  40  30  20  10
YKM  62  77  53  77 /  40  50  20  10
HRI  64  83  55  80 /  40  30  20  10
ELN  59  74  50  73 /  30  60  30  10
RDM  55  74  42  74 /  50  30  20   0
LGD  57  82  50  72 /  60  40  30  10
GCD  57  83  45  75 /  60  30  20  10
DLS  64  73  56  78 /  40  40  30  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/97/97/82





000
FXUS66 KPDT 230321
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
821 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE
THE TREND OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOWS SOME WEAKENING IN THE LAST
HOUR OR TWO...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND PERHAPS ALL NIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THE STORMS
THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME REPORTS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS, PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THE
SITUATION WELL AND NO FORECAST UPDATE IS PLANNED. PERRY


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE NOW AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR. ALSO
LIFT WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING CALIFORNIA SHORT WAVE AND JET STREAK. BASED
ON THIS EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE NORTHWARD.
JET DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH HAIL
AND WIND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A WHILE LATER TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES.
AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BECOMING BREEZY BY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
MANY AREAS MAY SEE THERE HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BECOMING STEADY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS WIND. 94

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES WILL RIDGE NORTH AND INFLUENCE THE REGIONS WEATHER
WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP INTO THE OREGON CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON
THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA OVER THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...LCL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
AND ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL OREGON UNTIL 04Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR TAF SITES WILL CREATE AREAS OF MVFR AND
LCL IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR
AFTER 10Z FOR ALL TAF SITES ONLY TO RETURN TO LCL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
AND NEAR KYKM AFTER 15Z.

FIRE WX...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE WETTING RAIN...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH
COULD START NEW FIRES IN VERY DRY FUELS. STORMS HAVE BEGUN
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND WILL
MOVE NORTH INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOME PLACES. AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. RED FLAG WARNINGS THEREFORE
REMAIN IN EFFECT.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  81  53  78 /  50  40  20  10
ALW  65  84  56  79 /  50  40  20  10
PSC  64  84  56  82 /  40  30  20  10
YKM  62  77  53  77 /  40  50  20  10
HRI  64  83  55  80 /  40  30  20  10
ELN  59  74  50  73 /  30  60  30  10
RDM  55  74  42  74 /  50  30  20   0
LGD  57  82  50  72 /  60  40  30  10
GCD  57  83  45  75 /  60  30  20  10
DLS  64  73  56  78 /  40  40  30  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/97/97/82





000
FXUS65 KBOI 230239
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
839 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...A BATCH OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVED
THROUGH EASTERN HARNEY AND NORTHERN MALHEUR COUNTIES EARLIER IN
THE EVENING...BUT HAVE SINCE WEAKENED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA WERE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HARNEY
COUNTY. OVERALL...THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OVER
CENTRAL OREGON. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE STILL SHOWING THAT AS THE
SHORTWAVE IN CALIFORNIA LIFTS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE THREAT OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT STORMS MAY
STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. NO UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING DIMINISHING AFTER 10Z. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE 12 KNOTS OR
LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS TO 45KT IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...BECOMING
SW 10-20KT AFTER 21Z WED EXCEPT VARIABLE 10KT IN MAGIC VALLEY AND
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT SW 25-35KT UP THROUGH 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE INTO EXTREME WESTERN IDAHO EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NNE AT AROUND 40 MPH AND
PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. A
VORT MAX SEEN IN SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH MOVE NNE INTO EASTERN OREGON LATE THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY GOING FOR A WHILE AFTER SUNSET IN EASTERN OREGON AND IN
WESTERN IDAHO NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR
BAKER CITY IN OREGON AND NEAR MCCALL IN IDAHO...OTHERWISE DRY. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND BRING
MUCH COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO.
EXPECT DRY BREEZY WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW STILL
ON TRACK TO SET UP OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 7 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY LATEST MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE
MOVING NORTH UNDER THE RIDGE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT IDZ400-401-420-423.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT
     ORZ636-637-646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JB
PREV LONG TERM....JA/AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 230239
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
839 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...A BATCH OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVED
THROUGH EASTERN HARNEY AND NORTHERN MALHEUR COUNTIES EARLIER IN
THE EVENING...BUT HAVE SINCE WEAKENED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA WERE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HARNEY
COUNTY. OVERALL...THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OVER
CENTRAL OREGON. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE STILL SHOWING THAT AS THE
SHORTWAVE IN CALIFORNIA LIFTS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE THREAT OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT STORMS MAY
STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. NO UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING DIMINISHING AFTER 10Z. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE 12 KNOTS OR
LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS TO 45KT IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...BECOMING
SW 10-20KT AFTER 21Z WED EXCEPT VARIABLE 10KT IN MAGIC VALLEY AND
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT SW 25-35KT UP THROUGH 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE INTO EXTREME WESTERN IDAHO EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NNE AT AROUND 40 MPH AND
PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. A
VORT MAX SEEN IN SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH MOVE NNE INTO EASTERN OREGON LATE THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY GOING FOR A WHILE AFTER SUNSET IN EASTERN OREGON AND IN
WESTERN IDAHO NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR
BAKER CITY IN OREGON AND NEAR MCCALL IN IDAHO...OTHERWISE DRY. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND BRING
MUCH COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO.
EXPECT DRY BREEZY WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW STILL
ON TRACK TO SET UP OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 7 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY LATEST MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE
MOVING NORTH UNDER THE RIDGE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT IDZ400-401-420-423.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT
     ORZ636-637-646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JB
PREV LONG TERM....JA/AB




000
FXUS66 KMFR 222145
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
245 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (560 DM 500 MB
HEIGHTS) CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN THE BC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL MAKE THE TURN AND HEAD INLAND TOMORROW. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM OVER US REMAINS WARM AND UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY INLAND
FROM THE COAST. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RIGHT NOW AND WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR OREGON
ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
NORTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND, IN ADDITION, CONVECTION IS STARTING
TO INITIATE LOCALLY IN THE EXPECTED SPOTS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU
INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FILL IN OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM AROUND MEDFORD EASTWARD, SO THIS IS
WHERE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS. IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE COAST
OR UMPQUA WILL SEE ANY LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION, THE UPPER JET WILL INCREASE, AND BY THIS EVENING
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 100 KT PLUS JET. AT THIS POINT, WE STAND THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTY,
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. CURRENTLY, STORMS ARE MOVING
NORTH AT AROUND 30 KNOTS, SO WHILE THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN, THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
BY LATE EVENING, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER, BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST SIDE.

AS MENTIONED, THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND TOMORROW. THE BULK OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL WILL BE NORTH OF US, BUT THE SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. INSTABILITY ISN`T GREAT
TOMORROW, BUT THE SIMPLE FACT THAT IT`S LATE JULY AND A FRONT IS
COMING THROUGH MEANS WE`LL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR THUNDER TOMORROW
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO MEAN GUSTY WINDS EAST
OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY THURSDAY AND WE BEGIN TO RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL WEATHER FOR JULY AROUND HERE WHICH MEANS A RETURN OF THE
THERMAL TROUGH AND DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND
AND HEAT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE BACK UP AROUND 100 IN MEDFORD BY
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS MAY MEAN SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK, BUT IT IS A LITTLE FAR
OUT TO GET SPECIFIC. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/18Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT THE
COAST WILL FILL IN TONIGHT AND LOWER TO IFR. THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE MOST FREQUENT ACTIVITY FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, GUSTY
WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LATE TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING FROM THE
COAST TO THE UMPQUA BASIN.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 21 JULY 2014...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TODAY...THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 222145
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
245 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (560 DM 500 MB
HEIGHTS) CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN THE BC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL MAKE THE TURN AND HEAD INLAND TOMORROW. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM OVER US REMAINS WARM AND UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY INLAND
FROM THE COAST. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RIGHT NOW AND WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR OREGON
ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
NORTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND, IN ADDITION, CONVECTION IS STARTING
TO INITIATE LOCALLY IN THE EXPECTED SPOTS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU
INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FILL IN OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM AROUND MEDFORD EASTWARD, SO THIS IS
WHERE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS. IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE COAST
OR UMPQUA WILL SEE ANY LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION, THE UPPER JET WILL INCREASE, AND BY THIS EVENING
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 100 KT PLUS JET. AT THIS POINT, WE STAND THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTY,
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. CURRENTLY, STORMS ARE MOVING
NORTH AT AROUND 30 KNOTS, SO WHILE THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN, THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
BY LATE EVENING, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER, BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST SIDE.

AS MENTIONED, THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND TOMORROW. THE BULK OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL WILL BE NORTH OF US, BUT THE SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. INSTABILITY ISN`T GREAT
TOMORROW, BUT THE SIMPLE FACT THAT IT`S LATE JULY AND A FRONT IS
COMING THROUGH MEANS WE`LL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR THUNDER TOMORROW
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO MEAN GUSTY WINDS EAST
OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY THURSDAY AND WE BEGIN TO RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL WEATHER FOR JULY AROUND HERE WHICH MEANS A RETURN OF THE
THERMAL TROUGH AND DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND
AND HEAT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE BACK UP AROUND 100 IN MEDFORD BY
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS MAY MEAN SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK, BUT IT IS A LITTLE FAR
OUT TO GET SPECIFIC. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/18Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT THE
COAST WILL FILL IN TONIGHT AND LOWER TO IFR. THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE MOST FREQUENT ACTIVITY FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, GUSTY
WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LATE TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING FROM THE
COAST TO THE UMPQUA BASIN.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 21 JULY 2014...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TODAY...THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$









000
FXUS66 KPQR 222143
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
202 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CLOUDY AND WET START TO
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AND MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90F LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING...A VORT MAX...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEAR THE BAY AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS CREEPING INTO THE CASCADES. A
DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
VORT MAX SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE
EAST OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES NEAR BEND. WITH ADDITIONAL
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CREST...BUT THERE STILL REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH...IF ANY...WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST RAP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY CASCADES...BUT IF THE
CURRENT MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER TOO MUCH LONGER THIS
AFTERNOON...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY ENTIRELY EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE LATTER IDEA. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF ANY STORMS DO BREAK THE CAP ON OUR SIDE OF
THE CREST...40-45 KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-
750 J/KG WILL AID STORM ORGANIZATION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS OF CONCERN IF STORMS WERE TO MATERIALIZE.
AGAIN...THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE SUCH STORMS IS PRIMARILY
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST...SOUTH OF MOUNT JEFFERSON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W...DUE
WEST OF OREGON...WILL ELONGATE FURTHER TONIGHT...TURNING THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHWEST OREGON SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY. THE NAM
BRINGS A PIECE OF THE VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY NEAR 130W AND 35N ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH NEGATIVE THETAE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500MB ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT REGION OF TWO UPPER LEVEL JETS...WE MAY SEE
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THE
THUNDER MENTION WAS LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. THE LATEST HRRR
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND
POINTS EAST...BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELONGATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 135W WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OREGON COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE DYNAMICS
MAY LEAD TO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL FRONT MAY LEAD TO A RATHER
ABRUPT END TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANY CLEARING WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUICKLY...AND A SPRING-LIKE PATTERN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENSUE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS
INCREASED TO CHANCE WORDING.

WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST WEDNESDAY THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SURFACE WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO HAVE A
BIT MORE OF A S TO SSE COMPONENT THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. COMBINED
WITH WSW WINDS OF 25 KT AT 900MB AND 40KT AT 500MB...A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING UPDRAFT COULD ROTATE BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WORTH MONITORING. THE MORE EXPECTED HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WERE ADDED TO THE THUNDER WORDING IN THE
GRIDS.

ON THE FIRE FRONT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY PUSHING AN INCH OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TOWARDS
LANE COUNTY...BUT CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY


&&


.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES N
OF A K6S2-KKLS LINE. S OF THIS LINE IS ALSO VFR BUT WITH SCT-BKN
CLOUD DECK GENERALLY ABOVE 6000 FT. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE A FEW LOCAL
MVFR POCKETS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS...AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE LIFR MARINE STRATUS HAS SURGED N FROM K6S2 TO JUST N OF KONP.
EXPECT TRENDS TO PERSIST UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION STARTING
AROUND 10Z. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AFT 12Z...WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND
2000 FT POSSIBLE. LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
RAIN...AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURED
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT AND AN OVERCAST DECK ABOVE 5000
FT. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...BUT EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE AFT 12Z
WITH CIGS LOWERING TO LOW VFR TO HIGHER MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
THUNDER DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN APPROACHES THIS EVENING...OR OVER MUCH
OF THE OPS AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN TAF FOR NOW. CULLEN


&&


.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TODAY WITH
A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BOTH S WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL INNER WATERS AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS THE SURFACE
LOW PUSHES ACROSS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER SO WILL LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE NEXT MODEL CYCLE BEFORE
POTENTIALLY RAISING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH
PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS OVER N
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND STEEP WIND
DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&


$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 222143
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
202 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CLOUDY AND WET START TO
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AND MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90F LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING...A VORT MAX...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEAR THE BAY AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS CREEPING INTO THE CASCADES. A
DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
VORT MAX SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE
EAST OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES NEAR BEND. WITH ADDITIONAL
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CREST...BUT THERE STILL REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH...IF ANY...WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST RAP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY CASCADES...BUT IF THE
CURRENT MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER TOO MUCH LONGER THIS
AFTERNOON...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY ENTIRELY EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE LATTER IDEA. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF ANY STORMS DO BREAK THE CAP ON OUR SIDE OF
THE CREST...40-45 KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-
750 J/KG WILL AID STORM ORGANIZATION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS OF CONCERN IF STORMS WERE TO MATERIALIZE.
AGAIN...THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE SUCH STORMS IS PRIMARILY
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST...SOUTH OF MOUNT JEFFERSON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W...DUE
WEST OF OREGON...WILL ELONGATE FURTHER TONIGHT...TURNING THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHWEST OREGON SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY. THE NAM
BRINGS A PIECE OF THE VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY NEAR 130W AND 35N ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH NEGATIVE THETAE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500MB ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT REGION OF TWO UPPER LEVEL JETS...WE MAY SEE
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THE
THUNDER MENTION WAS LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. THE LATEST HRRR
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND
POINTS EAST...BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELONGATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 135W WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OREGON COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE DYNAMICS
MAY LEAD TO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL FRONT MAY LEAD TO A RATHER
ABRUPT END TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANY CLEARING WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUICKLY...AND A SPRING-LIKE PATTERN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENSUE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS
INCREASED TO CHANCE WORDING.

WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST WEDNESDAY THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SURFACE WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO HAVE A
BIT MORE OF A S TO SSE COMPONENT THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. COMBINED
WITH WSW WINDS OF 25 KT AT 900MB AND 40KT AT 500MB...A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING UPDRAFT COULD ROTATE BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WORTH MONITORING. THE MORE EXPECTED HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WERE ADDED TO THE THUNDER WORDING IN THE
GRIDS.

ON THE FIRE FRONT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY PUSHING AN INCH OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TOWARDS
LANE COUNTY...BUT CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY


&&


.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES N
OF A K6S2-KKLS LINE. S OF THIS LINE IS ALSO VFR BUT WITH SCT-BKN
CLOUD DECK GENERALLY ABOVE 6000 FT. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE A FEW LOCAL
MVFR POCKETS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS...AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE LIFR MARINE STRATUS HAS SURGED N FROM K6S2 TO JUST N OF KONP.
EXPECT TRENDS TO PERSIST UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION STARTING
AROUND 10Z. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AFT 12Z...WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND
2000 FT POSSIBLE. LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
RAIN...AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURED
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT AND AN OVERCAST DECK ABOVE 5000
FT. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...BUT EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE AFT 12Z
WITH CIGS LOWERING TO LOW VFR TO HIGHER MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
THUNDER DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN APPROACHES THIS EVENING...OR OVER MUCH
OF THE OPS AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN TAF FOR NOW. CULLEN


&&


.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TODAY WITH
A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BOTH S WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL INNER WATERS AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS THE SURFACE
LOW PUSHES ACROSS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER SO WILL LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE NEXT MODEL CYCLE BEFORE
POTENTIALLY RAISING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH
PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS OVER N
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND STEEP WIND
DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&


$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 222126
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE NOW AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR. ALSO
LIFT WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING CALIFORNIA SHORT WAVE AND JET STREAK. BASED
ON THIS EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE NORTHWARD.
JET DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH HAIL
AND WIND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A WHILE LATER TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES.
AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BECOMING BREEZY BY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
MANY AREAS MAY SEE THERE HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BECOMING STEADY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS WIND. 94

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES WILL RIDGE NORTH AND INFLUENCE THE REGIONS WEATHER
WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP INTO THE OREGON CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON
THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA OVER THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...LCL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
AND ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL OREGON UNTIL 04Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR TAF SITES WILL CREATE AREAS OF MVFR AND
LCL IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR
AFTER 10Z FOR ALL TAF SITES ONLY TO RETURN TO LCL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
AND NEAR KYKM AFTER 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WX...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE WETTING RAIN...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH
COULD START NEW FIRES IN VERY DRY FUELS. STORMS HAVE BEGUN
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND WILL
MOVE NORTH INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOME PLACES. AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. RED FLAG WARNINGS THEREFORE
REMAIN IN EFFECT.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  81  53  78 /  40  40  20  10
ALW  65  84  56  79 /  50  40  20  10
PSC  64  84  56  82 /  30  30  20  10
YKM  62  77  53  77 /  30  50  20  10
HRI  64  83  55  80 /  30  30  20  10
ELN  59  74  50  73 /  30  60  30  10
RDM  55  74  42  74 /  50  30  20   0
LGD  57  82  50  72 /  60  40  30  10
GCD  57  83  45  75 /  60  30  20  10
DLS  64  73  56  78 /  30  40  30  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/97/97/82






000
FXUS66 KPDT 222126
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE NOW AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR. ALSO
LIFT WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING CALIFORNIA SHORT WAVE AND JET STREAK. BASED
ON THIS EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE NORTHWARD.
JET DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH HAIL
AND WIND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A WHILE LATER TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES.
AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BECOMING BREEZY BY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
MANY AREAS MAY SEE THERE HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BECOMING STEADY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS WIND. 94

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES WILL RIDGE NORTH AND INFLUENCE THE REGIONS WEATHER
WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP INTO THE OREGON CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON
THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA OVER THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...LCL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
AND ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL OREGON UNTIL 04Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR TAF SITES WILL CREATE AREAS OF MVFR AND
LCL IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR
AFTER 10Z FOR ALL TAF SITES ONLY TO RETURN TO LCL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
AND NEAR KYKM AFTER 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WX...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE WETTING RAIN...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH
COULD START NEW FIRES IN VERY DRY FUELS. STORMS HAVE BEGUN
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND WILL
MOVE NORTH INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOME PLACES. AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. RED FLAG WARNINGS THEREFORE
REMAIN IN EFFECT.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  81  53  78 /  40  40  20  10
ALW  65  84  56  79 /  50  40  20  10
PSC  64  84  56  82 /  30  30  20  10
YKM  62  77  53  77 /  30  50  20  10
HRI  64  83  55  80 /  30  30  20  10
ELN  59  74  50  73 /  30  60  30  10
RDM  55  74  42  74 /  50  30  20   0
LGD  57  82  50  72 /  60  40  30  10
GCD  57  83  45  75 /  60  30  20  10
DLS  64  73  56  78 /  30  40  30  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/97/97/82





000
FXUS65 KBOI 222054
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
254 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE INTO EXTREME WESTERN IDAHO EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NNE AT AROUND 40 MPH AND
PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. A
VORT MAX SEEN IN SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH MOVE NNE INTO EASTERN OREGON LATE THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY GOING FOR A WHILE AFTER SUNSET IN EASTERN OREGON AND IN
WESTERN IDAHO NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR
BAKER CITY IN OREGON AND NEAR MCCALL IN IDAHO...OTHERWISE DRY. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND BRING
MUCH COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO.
EXPECT DRY BREEZY WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW STILL
ON TRACK TO SET UP OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 7 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY LATEST MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE
MOVING NORTH UNDER THE RIDGE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT.  LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SHOWERS.  SURFACE WINDS
10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT IDZ400-401-420-423.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT
     ORZ636-637-646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....JA/AB
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 222054
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
254 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE INTO EXTREME WESTERN IDAHO EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NNE AT AROUND 40 MPH AND
PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. A
VORT MAX SEEN IN SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH MOVE NNE INTO EASTERN OREGON LATE THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY GOING FOR A WHILE AFTER SUNSET IN EASTERN OREGON AND IN
WESTERN IDAHO NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR
BAKER CITY IN OREGON AND NEAR MCCALL IN IDAHO...OTHERWISE DRY. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND BRING
MUCH COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO.
EXPECT DRY BREEZY WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW STILL
ON TRACK TO SET UP OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 7 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY LATEST MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE
MOVING NORTH UNDER THE RIDGE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT.  LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SHOWERS.  SURFACE WINDS
10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT IDZ400-401-420-423.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT
     ORZ636-637-646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....JA/AB
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS66 KPDT 221736
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1040 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING ALONG THE BC COAST TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS TURNING THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DRAW THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ACROSS OREGON LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW AND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY
OF LIFT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS DUE
TO SHEAR AND JET DYNAMICS. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL OREGON FIRST THEN ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. HIGHS
MOSTLY UPPER 70S AND 80S.
94

&&


.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR OR LESS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH VARYING BASES WILL REMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE OVER TIME...AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON.  BECAUSE CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE A HIT AND MISS...IT`S
DIFFICULT TO SAY FOR CERTAIN IF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 5
MILES OF A PARTICULAR AIRPORT. WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KYKM AND KPSC WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.  WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS WITH NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS.  WISTER

&&


.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 437 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP DOWN FROM THE BC COAST CAUSING THE FLOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEING PUMPED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA AT THIS
TIME WITH A FEW STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
EARLIER LAST EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING AT THIS TIME SO
THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING IS DECREASING WITH MAINLY JUST SHOWERS
AROUND. THIS AFTERNOON THE BULK SHEAR...NEGATIVE LI`S AND CAPE
VALUES ALL INCREASE FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALSO INCREASING WHICH MEANS
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HEAVY RAIN WITH THEM...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS SUCH A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY BEGINNING AT
11 AM FOR THE ENTIRE FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE OREGON PORTION OF THE CWA AND FIRE
WEATHER DISTRICT...EXCEPT IT ALSO INCLUDES THE NORTHWEST BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS IN WASHINGTON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF CAPE...NEGATIVE
LI`S AND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEREFORE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA/FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. AS SUCH THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY COOL COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH DRYING AND STABILIZATION
TAKING PLACE. AS A RESULT WILL SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RAPIDLY
DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA. 88

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.  THERE IS A LITTLE HINT OF SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MOVING UP THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER
100S...EXCEPT MID 80S TO LOWER 90S MOUNTAINS MONDAY.  DUE TO STRONG
SURFACED BASED HEATING AND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON ON
MONDAY.  WEBER



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  84  62  82  54 /  30  40  40  30
ALW  86  66  86  57 /  30  40  40  30
PSC  86  65  86  57 /  20  30  40  30
YKM  78  62  79  53 /  20  30  50  30
HRI  86  64  84  55 /  20  30  40  30
ELN  77  58  73  51 /  20  30  50  30
RDM  82  55  73  43 /  30  40  30  20
LGD  84  58  81  51 /  40  50  40  30
GCD  86  59  82  48 /  30  50  30  20
DLS  78  65  75  56 /  30  30  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/






000
FXUS66 KPQR 221627
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
914 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CASCADES MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR THIS EVENING. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER...THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES OVERHEAD. DRIER AND MORE
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...WHERE TO START...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
ELONGATED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A NUMBER OF
FEATURES PLAYING INTO OUR CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. FIRST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR 135W
AND 35N HAS ALLOW A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT HELPED PRODUCE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH OF RAIN
FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS PLENTY OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON.
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY REMAINS SPOTTY AND LIGHT IN NATURE UNDERNEATH
THIS BAND WITH GRANTS PASS...ROSEBURG AND EUGENE ALL TRACING IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ANYWAY...THIS BAND OF MOISTURE IS CENTERED
ALONG ANOTHER MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS TODAY PROGRESSES. HIT OR MISS...MORE NUISANCE TYPE
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...BUT NO LARGE AREAS OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THIS BAND.

AS THIS AREA OF CLOUDS SHIFTS NORTHWARD...OUR SOUTHERN CASCADE ZONES
WILL SEE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE. WITH 40-45 KTS
OF BULK SHEAR AND RELATIVELY FAT CAPE...MORE ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLULAR TYPE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...AND THIS IS A BIG
HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL CONCERNED THAT THIS SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN CAPPED TO THE WEST OF THE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT GET GOING UNTIL SHIFTING EAST OF THE
CASCADES. FURTHER A DISTINCT VORT MAX...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...CURRENTLY LIFTING INTO THE BAY AREA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
LIFTING MORE NORTHEASTWARD THAN NORTHWARD TODAY. THIS WOULD END UP
PLACING THE BEST MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  PLUS...THE SSW
TO SW FLOW AT 700MB WILL PUSH ANY DEVELOPING CONVECTION EAST OF THE
CREST QUICKLY. NONETHELESS...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE TOWARDS THE
EVENING HOURS THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN EASTERN DOUGLAS AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED AND CLIP EASTERN LANE AND
LINN COUNTIES WHEN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS MOST SOUTHERLY. AS A
RESULT...CONTINUED THE SCATTERED WORDING OF THUNDER IN THIS REGION
WITH AT LEAST A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE GRIDS.

FINALLY...A LARGER AND MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DUE
WEST OF OREGON NEAR 135 W WILL BEGIN TO ELONGATE AND SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE A NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND OF STEADY RAIN THAT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A QUARTER TO HALF INCH
OF RAIN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SALEM. CLEARING BEHIND THIS FEATURE
SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED VERY SHORT
LIVED THUNDERSTORMS...MORE REMINISCENT OF SPRING.

OTHERWISE...THE DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY LOOKS ON
TRACK. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE BY EARLY
THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GET BACK INTO THE MID 80S
BY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY REACH THE LOW 90S IN SOME AREAS INLAND AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...A BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS TO THE PORTLAND
METRO AREA TERMINALS.ANOTHER LINE OF RAIN IS MOVING INTO THE S
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CASCADES AND WILL SLIDE N TODAY. TEMPORARY
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR...OR POSSIBLY HIGH END IFR...POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN HEAVIER RAIN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT OVC SKIES WITH CIGS AROUND
4000 FT. HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURED TODAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT AFT 06Z AT THE
COAST...AND AROUND 10Z-12Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LINE OF RAIN SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINAL BY
17Z WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO AROUND 4000-5000 FT BY 18Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z...THOUGH
HEAVIER RAIN AT TIMES MAY BRING TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT NOT EXPECTED AT TERMINAL ATTM.   CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TODAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TODAY
WITH A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUE INTO WED.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT WINDS ON WED WITH THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. LATER
THIS WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW PRES
BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&


$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 221627
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
914 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CASCADES MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR THIS EVENING. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER...THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES OVERHEAD. DRIER AND MORE
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...WHERE TO START...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
ELONGATED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A NUMBER OF
FEATURES PLAYING INTO OUR CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. FIRST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR 135W
AND 35N HAS ALLOW A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT HELPED PRODUCE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH OF RAIN
FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS PLENTY OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON.
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY REMAINS SPOTTY AND LIGHT IN NATURE UNDERNEATH
THIS BAND WITH GRANTS PASS...ROSEBURG AND EUGENE ALL TRACING IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ANYWAY...THIS BAND OF MOISTURE IS CENTERED
ALONG ANOTHER MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS TODAY PROGRESSES. HIT OR MISS...MORE NUISANCE TYPE
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...BUT NO LARGE AREAS OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THIS BAND.

AS THIS AREA OF CLOUDS SHIFTS NORTHWARD...OUR SOUTHERN CASCADE ZONES
WILL SEE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE. WITH 40-45 KTS
OF BULK SHEAR AND RELATIVELY FAT CAPE...MORE ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLULAR TYPE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...AND THIS IS A BIG
HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL CONCERNED THAT THIS SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN CAPPED TO THE WEST OF THE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT GET GOING UNTIL SHIFTING EAST OF THE
CASCADES. FURTHER A DISTINCT VORT MAX...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...CURRENTLY LIFTING INTO THE BAY AREA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
LIFTING MORE NORTHEASTWARD THAN NORTHWARD TODAY. THIS WOULD END UP
PLACING THE BEST MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  PLUS...THE SSW
TO SW FLOW AT 700MB WILL PUSH ANY DEVELOPING CONVECTION EAST OF THE
CREST QUICKLY. NONETHELESS...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE TOWARDS THE
EVENING HOURS THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN EASTERN DOUGLAS AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED AND CLIP EASTERN LANE AND
LINN COUNTIES WHEN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS MOST SOUTHERLY. AS A
RESULT...CONTINUED THE SCATTERED WORDING OF THUNDER IN THIS REGION
WITH AT LEAST A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE GRIDS.

FINALLY...A LARGER AND MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DUE
WEST OF OREGON NEAR 135 W WILL BEGIN TO ELONGATE AND SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE A NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND OF STEADY RAIN THAT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A QUARTER TO HALF INCH
OF RAIN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SALEM. CLEARING BEHIND THIS FEATURE
SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED VERY SHORT
LIVED THUNDERSTORMS...MORE REMINISCENT OF SPRING.

OTHERWISE...THE DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY LOOKS ON
TRACK. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE BY EARLY
THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GET BACK INTO THE MID 80S
BY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY REACH THE LOW 90S IN SOME AREAS INLAND AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...A BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS TO THE PORTLAND
METRO AREA TERMINALS.ANOTHER LINE OF RAIN IS MOVING INTO THE S
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CASCADES AND WILL SLIDE N TODAY. TEMPORARY
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR...OR POSSIBLY HIGH END IFR...POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN HEAVIER RAIN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT OVC SKIES WITH CIGS AROUND
4000 FT. HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURED TODAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT AFT 06Z AT THE
COAST...AND AROUND 10Z-12Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LINE OF RAIN SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINAL BY
17Z WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO AROUND 4000-5000 FT BY 18Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z...THOUGH
HEAVIER RAIN AT TIMES MAY BRING TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT NOT EXPECTED AT TERMINAL ATTM.   CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TODAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TODAY
WITH A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUE INTO WED.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT WINDS ON WED WITH THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. LATER
THIS WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW PRES
BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&


$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 221612
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1012 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NNE INTO EASTERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO WESTERN IDAHO EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WINDS AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT SOME OF THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
THE CORE OF THESE STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...BUT GIVEN THE
FAST MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NNE AT 40 TO 45 MPH THE HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG AT ANY ONE LOCATION. WE MADE SOME
MINOR UPDATES TO INCREASE THE POPS...MAINLY ON THE IN WESTERN
IDAHO THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SHOWERS. SURFACE
WINDS VARIABLE 10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOT UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WE REMAIN IN SW FLOW ALOFT
WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND ABOVE-AVERAGE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.
THIS COMBINATION LED TO A GREAT DEAL OF LIGHTNING YDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN SE OREGON. CHANCES ARE GOOD THAT WE WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT AGAIN TODAY. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS US IN A /SEE TEXT/
AREA...MEANING WE ARE NEAR THEIR THRESHOLD FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A
VORT MAX LOCATED NEAR 33 N 127 W AS OF 2 AM MDT WAS MOVING NE.
THIS WILL ACCELERATE LATER TODAY AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE AREA. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORT MAX WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS VORT MAX IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A JET MAX OF AROUND 90 KTS AT 300 MB. THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
SHEAR TO MAINTAIN LONG-LIVED AND ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. PW
VALUES ARE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCH ACROSS THE AREA...SO STORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN IN THE CORES...ALONG WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 40 MPH...INCREASING
THE CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS BUT DECREASING THE CHANCES FOR FLASH
FLOODING. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE FIRE
WEATHER ZONES BECAUSE OF THE ANTICIPATED LIGHTNING. SEE BELOW FOR
DETAILS. WED...AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH...WE WILL
FIND OURSELVES IN A DRY SLOT AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NRN
QUARTER OF THE CWA. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND WED.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER...
DRIER...AND MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER LEVEL HIGH REBUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     TONIGHT IDZ400-401-420-423.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM MDT /2 PM PDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT ORZ636-637-646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 221612
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1012 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NNE INTO EASTERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO WESTERN IDAHO EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WINDS AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT SOME OF THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
THE CORE OF THESE STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...BUT GIVEN THE
FAST MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NNE AT 40 TO 45 MPH THE HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG AT ANY ONE LOCATION. WE MADE SOME
MINOR UPDATES TO INCREASE THE POPS...MAINLY ON THE IN WESTERN
IDAHO THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SHOWERS. SURFACE
WINDS VARIABLE 10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOT UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WE REMAIN IN SW FLOW ALOFT
WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND ABOVE-AVERAGE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.
THIS COMBINATION LED TO A GREAT DEAL OF LIGHTNING YDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN SE OREGON. CHANCES ARE GOOD THAT WE WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT AGAIN TODAY. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS US IN A /SEE TEXT/
AREA...MEANING WE ARE NEAR THEIR THRESHOLD FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A
VORT MAX LOCATED NEAR 33 N 127 W AS OF 2 AM MDT WAS MOVING NE.
THIS WILL ACCELERATE LATER TODAY AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE AREA. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORT MAX WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS VORT MAX IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A JET MAX OF AROUND 90 KTS AT 300 MB. THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
SHEAR TO MAINTAIN LONG-LIVED AND ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. PW
VALUES ARE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCH ACROSS THE AREA...SO STORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN IN THE CORES...ALONG WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 40 MPH...INCREASING
THE CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS BUT DECREASING THE CHANCES FOR FLASH
FLOODING. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE FIRE
WEATHER ZONES BECAUSE OF THE ANTICIPATED LIGHTNING. SEE BELOW FOR
DETAILS. WED...AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH...WE WILL
FIND OURSELVES IN A DRY SLOT AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NRN
QUARTER OF THE CWA. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND WED.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER...
DRIER...AND MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER LEVEL HIGH REBUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     TONIGHT IDZ400-401-420-423.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM MDT /2 PM PDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT ORZ636-637-646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS66 KMFR 221551
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
851 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...ALL THINGS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK IN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY. A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE B.C. COAST AND ASSOCIATED
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE IN OVER THE
AREA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY ON SATELLITE MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING, AND RADAR SHOWS
THAT CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED FROM THE BAY AREA NORTHWARD
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT TOWARD OUR AREA. UNFORTUNATELY,
THERE IS PLENTY OF CLEARING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL SERVE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE AN ALREADY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. AS IF THAT WEREN`T ENOUGH, THE UPPER JET WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND OUR EAST SIDE OREGON ZONES WILL BE
UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 100 KT PLUS JET BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL THIS ADDS UP TO THUNDERSTORMS FOR US
TODAY, ESPECIALLY CASCADES/SISKIYOUS AND EASTWARD, AND SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE OVER NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
INDEED, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER, HAS THAT AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE TODAY. THE THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL, AND WHILE THEY WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN, THEY WILL BE MOVING, SO FLOODING SHOULDN`T BE MUCH CONCERN.
WILL BE MAKING SOME UPDATES TO INCREASE POPS IN THESE AREAS AND
POSSIBLY ADD SEVERE WORDING IN THE APPROPRIATE AREAS. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/12Z TAFS...AREAS OF IFR CIGS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND 16Z
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN
VFR ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE THIS MORNING...CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY VFR BUT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING, SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST FREQUENT
ACTIVITY FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SISKIYOU AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTIES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ALONG
130W WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS INLAND.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER MANY INLAND AREAS TODAY. FURTHER,
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING HAIL OR
WIND WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THEN ON WEDNESDAY, THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACNW COAST BRINGING A FRONT INTO THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

MODEL FORECASTS HAVE REMAINED ON TRACK SHOWING THAT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM
NEAR THE I-5 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN SOUTHERN OREGON AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. LIFTED INDICES ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST TO BE AROUND -2 TO -4 AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7 TO 8 ARE FORECAST. MUCAPE VALUES OF NEAR 500 OR GREATER ARE
INDICATED AS WELL. AS UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA BRINGING AREAS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. BULK SHEAR
OF 30 KTS IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT, EXPECT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING HAIL OR WINDS.

HAVE INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE AREA FROM CRATER
LAKE TO CHEMULT FROM SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE SINCE MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT FOR LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO INCREASED THE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY GIVEN THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE SHORTWAVE UP FROM THE COAST.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND SHIFT NORTHWARD.

THEN, THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST TONIGHT AND
INLAND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS, NAM, ECMWF, AND SREF ALL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND INDICATE RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND
SPREADING INLAND INTO AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON AS
THIS SYSTEM BRINGS A FRONT INLAND ON WEDNESDAY. EAST OF THE
CASCADES EXPECT LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN-MOST KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ALSO TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE MID 30S FOR
AREAS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES,
EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S AND FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
AND A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY.
THIS MAY BRING SOME STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, EXPECT A DRY AND HOT
PATTERN TO DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ALSO A THERMAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST AND
BRING CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND TO AREAS
ALONG  THE COAST. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MAY BRING
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SO HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST, MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 21 JULY 2014...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TODAY...THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$






000
FXUS66 KMFR 221551
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
851 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...ALL THINGS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK IN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY. A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE B.C. COAST AND ASSOCIATED
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE IN OVER THE
AREA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY ON SATELLITE MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING, AND RADAR SHOWS
THAT CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED FROM THE BAY AREA NORTHWARD
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT TOWARD OUR AREA. UNFORTUNATELY,
THERE IS PLENTY OF CLEARING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL SERVE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE AN ALREADY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. AS IF THAT WEREN`T ENOUGH, THE UPPER JET WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND OUR EAST SIDE OREGON ZONES WILL BE
UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 100 KT PLUS JET BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL THIS ADDS UP TO THUNDERSTORMS FOR US
TODAY, ESPECIALLY CASCADES/SISKIYOUS AND EASTWARD, AND SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE OVER NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
INDEED, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER, HAS THAT AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE TODAY. THE THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL, AND WHILE THEY WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN, THEY WILL BE MOVING, SO FLOODING SHOULDN`T BE MUCH CONCERN.
WILL BE MAKING SOME UPDATES TO INCREASE POPS IN THESE AREAS AND
POSSIBLY ADD SEVERE WORDING IN THE APPROPRIATE AREAS. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/12Z TAFS...AREAS OF IFR CIGS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND 16Z
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN
VFR ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE THIS MORNING...CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY VFR BUT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING, SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST FREQUENT
ACTIVITY FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SISKIYOU AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTIES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ALONG
130W WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS INLAND.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER MANY INLAND AREAS TODAY. FURTHER,
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING HAIL OR
WIND WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THEN ON WEDNESDAY, THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACNW COAST BRINGING A FRONT INTO THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

MODEL FORECASTS HAVE REMAINED ON TRACK SHOWING THAT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM
NEAR THE I-5 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN SOUTHERN OREGON AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. LIFTED INDICES ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST TO BE AROUND -2 TO -4 AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7 TO 8 ARE FORECAST. MUCAPE VALUES OF NEAR 500 OR GREATER ARE
INDICATED AS WELL. AS UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA BRINGING AREAS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. BULK SHEAR
OF 30 KTS IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT, EXPECT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING HAIL OR WINDS.

HAVE INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE AREA FROM CRATER
LAKE TO CHEMULT FROM SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE SINCE MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT FOR LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO INCREASED THE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY GIVEN THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE SHORTWAVE UP FROM THE COAST.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND SHIFT NORTHWARD.

THEN, THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST TONIGHT AND
INLAND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS, NAM, ECMWF, AND SREF ALL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND INDICATE RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND
SPREADING INLAND INTO AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON AS
THIS SYSTEM BRINGS A FRONT INLAND ON WEDNESDAY. EAST OF THE
CASCADES EXPECT LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN-MOST KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ALSO TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE MID 30S FOR
AREAS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES,
EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S AND FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
AND A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY.
THIS MAY BRING SOME STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, EXPECT A DRY AND HOT
PATTERN TO DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ALSO A THERMAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST AND
BRING CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND TO AREAS
ALONG  THE COAST. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MAY BRING
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SO HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST, MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 21 JULY 2014...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TODAY...THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$







000
FXUS66 KPDT 221547
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
844 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING ALONG THE BC COAST TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS TURNING THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DRAW THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ACROSS OREGON LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW AND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY
OF LIFT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS DUE
TO SHEAR AND JET DYNAMICS. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL OREGON FIRST THEN ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. HIGHS
MOSTLY UPPER 70S AND 80S.
94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 437 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP DOWN FROM THE BC COAST CAUSING THE FLOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEING PUMPED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA AT THIS
TIME WITH A FEW STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
EARLIER LAST EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING AT THIS TIME SO
THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING IS DECREASING WITH MAINLY JUST SHOWERS
AROUND. THIS AFTERNOON THE BULK SHEAR...NEGATIVE LI`S AND CAPE
VALUES ALL INCREASE FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALSO INCREASING WHICH MEANS
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HEAVY RAIN WITH THEM...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS SUCH A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY BEGINNING AT
11 AM FOR THE ENTIRE FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE OREGON PORTION OF THE CWA AND FIRE
WEATHER DISTRICT...EXCEPT IT ALSO INCLUDES THE NORTHWEST BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS IN WASHINGTON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF CAPE...NEGATIVE
LI`S AND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEREFORE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA/FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. AS SUCH THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY COOL COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH DRYING AND STABILIZATION
TAKING PLACE. AS A RESULT WILL SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RAPIDLY
DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA. 88

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.  THERE IS A LITTLE HINT OF SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MOVING UP THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER
100S...EXCEPT MID 80S TO LOWER 90S MOUNTAINS MONDAY.  DUE TO STRONG
SURFACED BASED HEATING AND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON ON
MONDAY.  WEBER

AVIATION...12Z TAFS.  ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR OR LESS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH VARYING BASES WILL REMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE OVER TIME...AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE MENTIONED VCTS AT KRDM AND KBDN AFTER
18Z AND ALL OTHER TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.  WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE TRANSITIONED
THUNDER TO VCSH AFTER 06Z AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT STILL CAN`T RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THEM INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOUR AT THIS
TIME.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  84  62  82  54 /  30  40  40  30
ALW  86  66  86  57 /  30  40  40  30
PSC  86  65  86  57 /  20  30  40  30
YKM  78  62  79  53 /  20  30  50  30
HRI  86  64  84  55 /  20  30  40  30
ELN  77  58  73  51 /  20  30  50  30
RDM  82  55  73  43 /  30  40  30  20
LGD  84  58  81  51 /  40  50  40  30
GCD  86  59  82  48 /  30  50  30  20
DLS  78  65  75  56 /  30  30  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 221547
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
844 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING ALONG THE BC COAST TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS TURNING THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DRAW THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ACROSS OREGON LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW AND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY
OF LIFT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS DUE
TO SHEAR AND JET DYNAMICS. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL OREGON FIRST THEN ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. HIGHS
MOSTLY UPPER 70S AND 80S.
94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 437 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP DOWN FROM THE BC COAST CAUSING THE FLOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEING PUMPED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA AT THIS
TIME WITH A FEW STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
EARLIER LAST EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING AT THIS TIME SO
THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING IS DECREASING WITH MAINLY JUST SHOWERS
AROUND. THIS AFTERNOON THE BULK SHEAR...NEGATIVE LI`S AND CAPE
VALUES ALL INCREASE FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALSO INCREASING WHICH MEANS
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HEAVY RAIN WITH THEM...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS SUCH A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY BEGINNING AT
11 AM FOR THE ENTIRE FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE OREGON PORTION OF THE CWA AND FIRE
WEATHER DISTRICT...EXCEPT IT ALSO INCLUDES THE NORTHWEST BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS IN WASHINGTON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF CAPE...NEGATIVE
LI`S AND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEREFORE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA/FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. AS SUCH THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY COOL COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH DRYING AND STABILIZATION
TAKING PLACE. AS A RESULT WILL SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RAPIDLY
DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA. 88

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.  THERE IS A LITTLE HINT OF SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MOVING UP THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER
100S...EXCEPT MID 80S TO LOWER 90S MOUNTAINS MONDAY.  DUE TO STRONG
SURFACED BASED HEATING AND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON ON
MONDAY.  WEBER

AVIATION...12Z TAFS.  ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR OR LESS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH VARYING BASES WILL REMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE OVER TIME...AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE MENTIONED VCTS AT KRDM AND KBDN AFTER
18Z AND ALL OTHER TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.  WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE TRANSITIONED
THUNDER TO VCSH AFTER 06Z AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT STILL CAN`T RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THEM INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOUR AT THIS
TIME.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  84  62  82  54 /  30  40  40  30
ALW  86  66  86  57 /  30  40  40  30
PSC  86  65  86  57 /  20  30  40  30
YKM  78  62  79  53 /  20  30  50  30
HRI  86  64  84  55 /  20  30  40  30
ELN  77  58  73  51 /  20  30  50  30
RDM  82  55  73  43 /  30  40  30  20
LGD  84  58  81  51 /  40  50  40  30
GCD  86  59  82  48 /  30  50  30  20
DLS  78  65  75  56 /  30  30  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 221547
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
844 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING ALONG THE BC COAST TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS TURNING THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DRAW THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ACROSS OREGON LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW AND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY
OF LIFT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS DUE
TO SHEAR AND JET DYNAMICS. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL OREGON FIRST THEN ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. HIGHS
MOSTLY UPPER 70S AND 80S.
94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 437 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP DOWN FROM THE BC COAST CAUSING THE FLOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEING PUMPED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA AT THIS
TIME WITH A FEW STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
EARLIER LAST EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING AT THIS TIME SO
THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING IS DECREASING WITH MAINLY JUST SHOWERS
AROUND. THIS AFTERNOON THE BULK SHEAR...NEGATIVE LI`S AND CAPE
VALUES ALL INCREASE FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALSO INCREASING WHICH MEANS
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HEAVY RAIN WITH THEM...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS SUCH A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY BEGINNING AT
11 AM FOR THE ENTIRE FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE OREGON PORTION OF THE CWA AND FIRE
WEATHER DISTRICT...EXCEPT IT ALSO INCLUDES THE NORTHWEST BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS IN WASHINGTON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF CAPE...NEGATIVE
LI`S AND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEREFORE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA/FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. AS SUCH THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY COOL COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH DRYING AND STABILIZATION
TAKING PLACE. AS A RESULT WILL SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RAPIDLY
DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA. 88

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.  THERE IS A LITTLE HINT OF SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MOVING UP THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER
100S...EXCEPT MID 80S TO LOWER 90S MOUNTAINS MONDAY.  DUE TO STRONG
SURFACED BASED HEATING AND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON ON
MONDAY.  WEBER

AVIATION...12Z TAFS.  ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR OR LESS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH VARYING BASES WILL REMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE OVER TIME...AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE MENTIONED VCTS AT KRDM AND KBDN AFTER
18Z AND ALL OTHER TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.  WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE TRANSITIONED
THUNDER TO VCSH AFTER 06Z AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT STILL CAN`T RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THEM INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOUR AT THIS
TIME.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  84  62  82  54 /  30  40  40  30
ALW  86  66  86  57 /  30  40  40  30
PSC  86  65  86  57 /  20  30  40  30
YKM  78  62  79  53 /  20  30  50  30
HRI  86  64  84  55 /  20  30  40  30
ELN  77  58  73  51 /  20  30  50  30
RDM  82  55  73  43 /  30  40  30  20
LGD  84  58  81  51 /  40  50  40  30
GCD  86  59  82  48 /  30  50  30  20
DLS  78  65  75  56 /  30  30  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 221547
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
844 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING ALONG THE BC COAST TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS TURNING THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DRAW THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ACROSS OREGON LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW AND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY
OF LIFT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS DUE
TO SHEAR AND JET DYNAMICS. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL OREGON FIRST THEN ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. HIGHS
MOSTLY UPPER 70S AND 80S.
94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 437 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP DOWN FROM THE BC COAST CAUSING THE FLOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEING PUMPED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA AT THIS
TIME WITH A FEW STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
EARLIER LAST EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING AT THIS TIME SO
THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING IS DECREASING WITH MAINLY JUST SHOWERS
AROUND. THIS AFTERNOON THE BULK SHEAR...NEGATIVE LI`S AND CAPE
VALUES ALL INCREASE FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALSO INCREASING WHICH MEANS
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HEAVY RAIN WITH THEM...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS SUCH A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY BEGINNING AT
11 AM FOR THE ENTIRE FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE OREGON PORTION OF THE CWA AND FIRE
WEATHER DISTRICT...EXCEPT IT ALSO INCLUDES THE NORTHWEST BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS IN WASHINGTON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF CAPE...NEGATIVE
LI`S AND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEREFORE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA/FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. AS SUCH THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY COOL COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH DRYING AND STABILIZATION
TAKING PLACE. AS A RESULT WILL SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RAPIDLY
DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA. 88

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.  THERE IS A LITTLE HINT OF SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MOVING UP THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER
100S...EXCEPT MID 80S TO LOWER 90S MOUNTAINS MONDAY.  DUE TO STRONG
SURFACED BASED HEATING AND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON ON
MONDAY.  WEBER

AVIATION...12Z TAFS.  ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR OR LESS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH VARYING BASES WILL REMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE OVER TIME...AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE MENTIONED VCTS AT KRDM AND KBDN AFTER
18Z AND ALL OTHER TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.  WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE TRANSITIONED
THUNDER TO VCSH AFTER 06Z AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT STILL CAN`T RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THEM INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOUR AT THIS
TIME.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  84  62  82  54 /  30  40  40  30
ALW  86  66  86  57 /  30  40  40  30
PSC  86  65  86  57 /  20  30  40  30
YKM  78  62  79  53 /  20  30  50  30
HRI  86  64  84  55 /  20  30  40  30
ELN  77  58  73  51 /  20  30  50  30
RDM  82  55  73  43 /  30  40  30  20
LGD  84  58  81  51 /  40  50  40  30
GCD  86  59  82  48 /  30  50  30  20
DLS  78  65  75  56 /  30  30  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 221137 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
437 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP DOWN FROM THE BC COAST CAUSING THE FLOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEING PUMPED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA AT THIS
TIME WITH A FEW STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
EARLIER LAST EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING AT THIS TIME SO
THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING IS DECREASING WITH MAINLY JUST SHOWERS
AROUND. THIS AFTERNOON THE BULK SHEAR...NEGATIVE LI`S AND CAPE
VALUES ALL INCREASE FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALSO INCREASING WHICH MEANS
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HEAVY RAIN WITH THEM...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS SUCH A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY BEGINNING AT
11 AM FOR THE ENTIRE FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE OREGON PORTION OF THE CWA AND FIRE
WEATHER DISTRICT...EXCEPT IT ALSO INCLUDES THE NORTHWEST BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS IN WASHINGTON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF CAPE...NEGATIVE
LI`S AND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEREFORE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA/FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. AS SUCH THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY COOL COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH DRYING AND STABILIZATION
TAKING PLACE. AS A RESULT WILL SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RAPIDLY
DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA. 88

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.  THERE IS A LITTLE HINT OF SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MOVING UP THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER
100S...EXCEPT MID 80S TO LOWER 90S MOUNTAINS MONDAY.  DUE TO STRONG
SURFACED BASED HEATING AND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON ON
MONDAY.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS.  ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR OR LESS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH VARYING BASES WILL REMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE OVER TIME...AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE MENTIONED VCTS AT KRDM AND KBDN AFTER
18Z AND ALL OTHER TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.  WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE TRANSITIONED
THUNDER TO VCSH AFTER 06Z AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT STILL CAN`T RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THEM INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOUR AT THIS
TIME.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  85  62  82  54 /  30  40  40  30
ALW  87  66  86  57 /  30  40  40  30
PSC  87  65  86  57 /  20  30  40  30
YKM  79  62  79  53 /  20  30  50  30
HRI  87  64  84  55 /  20  30  40  30
ELN  77  58  73  51 /  20  30  50  30
RDM  80  55  73  43 /  30  40  30  20
LGD  83  58  81  51 /  40  50  40  30
GCD  85  59  82  48 /  30  50  30  20
DLS  79  65  75  56 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/89/89







000
FXUS66 KPQR 221115
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
415 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CASCADES MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR THIS EVENING. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER...THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES OVERHEAD. DRIER AND MORE
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH WITH A PARENT CLOSED LOW REMAINING CENTERED JUST
OFF HAIDA GWAII BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FLOW PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE
COMPLEX OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS DETACHED FROM
THE SOUTH END OF THE CLOSED LOW BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ITSELF
DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW. THIS A NOTABLE DEPARTURE FROM WHAT
MODELS INDICATE AND HAS POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. IF THIS SOUTHERLY WAVE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND
CLOSE OFF...THEN IT BECOMES LESS LIKELY FOR THE PARENT UPPER LOW TO
DIGS SOUTH. ASSUMING THAT HAPPENS...THEN OUR AREA DOES NOT SEE QUITE
THE SAME CONVECTIVE THREATS AS HAVE BEEN INDICATED OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AS IS
WITH THE EXPANDING LARGER SCALE TROUGH ALSO SENDING A DRY CLOSED LOW
UP TOWARD THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. IN ALL...MODELS ARE NOT
PICKING UP ON THE COMPLEX EVOLUTION AND THIS AS SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASED CONFIDENCE...EVEN IN THE MOST IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM. IT
STILL APPEARS AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS THE ON THE DOCKET FOR THE
CASCADES MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. BUT WHAT HAPPENS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN REMAINS SOMEWHAT
IN DOUBT. THE CURRENT BAROCLINIC BAND IS FILLING IN AS WE SPEAK AND
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVEN DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.
FINALLY HAD TO GIVE UP ON THE DYNAMICALLY CHANGING SCENARIO AND PUT
THE PACKAGE OUT, BUT WITH FULL EXPECTATIONS OF AN UPDATE TO BE
RELEASED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOLLOWING THE ASSUMPTION OF MODELS HAVING A GOOD HANDLE...FAIRLY
STRONG CAPE THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE PLUS SOME DECENT SHEAR
COULD MAKE FOR A STRONGER STORM OR TWO LATER TODAY. MIGHT SEE SOME
1/2 INCH HAIL ALONG THE CASCADES BUT WILL STILL NEED TO HAVE THE
RIGHT COMBINATION. THAT EXACT LOCATION CANNOT BE DETERMINED THIS FAR
IN ADVANCE BUT IT SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FOR THE CENTRAL
CASCADES VERSUS AREAS FURTHER NORTH.

THE UPPER LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST AND CROSS
THE AREA BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS FOR THE
EXACT TRACK AND RAIN IMPACTS. ODDLY...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
MOST OF THE INCOMING PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
STRATIFORM IN NATURE. BY LOOKING AT THE CONVECTIVE PRECIP OUTPUT IS
APPEARS THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES ARE FIRING VERY
LITTLE EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CREST AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY COVERING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OPTED
TO NOT MAKE CHANGES THEREAFTER...HOPING ALL BECOMES CLEARER WITH
TIME. WE CURRENTLY HAVE RATHER DECENT POPS AND QPF FORECAST BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE DRAMATIC CHANGES IN THE NATURE AND
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE SHIFTS. ALL
TOLD...THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BRING THE TAIL END OF RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT RAPID RIDGING IS NO LONGER A GIVEN PER THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF RUNS. THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE DRY BUT WE MAY NOT SEE AS
MUCH OF A WARM UP AS WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. /JBONK

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE BY EARLY
THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GET BACK INTO THE MID 80S
BY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY REACH THE LOW 90S IN SOME AREAS INLAND AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CIGS 7-10K FT. -RA MAKING ITS
WAY NE THROUGH THE VALLEY AND INTO THE PDX AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL REMAIN
HIGH AND ANY RAIN AT THE TERMINALS WILL BE LIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH BKN TO OVC
HIGH CLOUDS. OCCASIONAL -RA POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE
GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK...KEEPING WINDS AOB 10 KT. SEAS ON THE
DECREASE TODAY TO ABOUT 3 FT BEFORE COMING BACK UP SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY TO 4-5 FT WITH CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS TUE INTO
WED...BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 15 KT OR
LESS. LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER THE NE PAC AS
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA...BRINGING A RETURN TO
GUSTY N WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 221115
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
415 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CASCADES MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR THIS EVENING. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER...THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES OVERHEAD. DRIER AND MORE
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH WITH A PARENT CLOSED LOW REMAINING CENTERED JUST
OFF HAIDA GWAII BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FLOW PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE
COMPLEX OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS DETACHED FROM
THE SOUTH END OF THE CLOSED LOW BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ITSELF
DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW. THIS A NOTABLE DEPARTURE FROM WHAT
MODELS INDICATE AND HAS POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. IF THIS SOUTHERLY WAVE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND
CLOSE OFF...THEN IT BECOMES LESS LIKELY FOR THE PARENT UPPER LOW TO
DIGS SOUTH. ASSUMING THAT HAPPENS...THEN OUR AREA DOES NOT SEE QUITE
THE SAME CONVECTIVE THREATS AS HAVE BEEN INDICATED OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AS IS
WITH THE EXPANDING LARGER SCALE TROUGH ALSO SENDING A DRY CLOSED LOW
UP TOWARD THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. IN ALL...MODELS ARE NOT
PICKING UP ON THE COMPLEX EVOLUTION AND THIS AS SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASED CONFIDENCE...EVEN IN THE MOST IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM. IT
STILL APPEARS AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS THE ON THE DOCKET FOR THE
CASCADES MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. BUT WHAT HAPPENS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN REMAINS SOMEWHAT
IN DOUBT. THE CURRENT BAROCLINIC BAND IS FILLING IN AS WE SPEAK AND
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVEN DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.
FINALLY HAD TO GIVE UP ON THE DYNAMICALLY CHANGING SCENARIO AND PUT
THE PACKAGE OUT, BUT WITH FULL EXPECTATIONS OF AN UPDATE TO BE
RELEASED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOLLOWING THE ASSUMPTION OF MODELS HAVING A GOOD HANDLE...FAIRLY
STRONG CAPE THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE PLUS SOME DECENT SHEAR
COULD MAKE FOR A STRONGER STORM OR TWO LATER TODAY. MIGHT SEE SOME
1/2 INCH HAIL ALONG THE CASCADES BUT WILL STILL NEED TO HAVE THE
RIGHT COMBINATION. THAT EXACT LOCATION CANNOT BE DETERMINED THIS FAR
IN ADVANCE BUT IT SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FOR THE CENTRAL
CASCADES VERSUS AREAS FURTHER NORTH.

THE UPPER LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST AND CROSS
THE AREA BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS FOR THE
EXACT TRACK AND RAIN IMPACTS. ODDLY...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
MOST OF THE INCOMING PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
STRATIFORM IN NATURE. BY LOOKING AT THE CONVECTIVE PRECIP OUTPUT IS
APPEARS THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES ARE FIRING VERY
LITTLE EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CREST AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY COVERING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OPTED
TO NOT MAKE CHANGES THEREAFTER...HOPING ALL BECOMES CLEARER WITH
TIME. WE CURRENTLY HAVE RATHER DECENT POPS AND QPF FORECAST BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE DRAMATIC CHANGES IN THE NATURE AND
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE SHIFTS. ALL
TOLD...THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BRING THE TAIL END OF RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT RAPID RIDGING IS NO LONGER A GIVEN PER THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF RUNS. THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE DRY BUT WE MAY NOT SEE AS
MUCH OF A WARM UP AS WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. /JBONK

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE BY EARLY
THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GET BACK INTO THE MID 80S
BY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY REACH THE LOW 90S IN SOME AREAS INLAND AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CIGS 7-10K FT. -RA MAKING ITS
WAY NE THROUGH THE VALLEY AND INTO THE PDX AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL REMAIN
HIGH AND ANY RAIN AT THE TERMINALS WILL BE LIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH BKN TO OVC
HIGH CLOUDS. OCCASIONAL -RA POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE
GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK...KEEPING WINDS AOB 10 KT. SEAS ON THE
DECREASE TODAY TO ABOUT 3 FT BEFORE COMING BACK UP SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY TO 4-5 FT WITH CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS TUE INTO
WED...BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 15 KT OR
LESS. LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER THE NE PAC AS
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA...BRINGING A RETURN TO
GUSTY N WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 221040
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
340 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ALONG
130W WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS INLAND.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER MANY INLAND AREAS TODAY. FURTHER,
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING HAIL OR
WIND WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THEN ON WEDNESDAY, THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACNW COAST BRINGING A FRONT INTO THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

MODEL FORECASTS HAVE REMAINED ON TRACK SHOWING THAT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM
NEAR THE I-5 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN SOUTHERN OREGON AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. LIFTED INDICES ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST TO BE AROUND -2 TO -4 AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7 TO 8 ARE FORECAST. MUCAPE VALUES OF NEAR 500 OR GREATER ARE
INDICATED AS WELL. AS UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA BRINGING AREAS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. BULK SHEAR
OF 30 KTS IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT, EXPECT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING HAIL OR WINDS.

HAVE INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE AREA FROM CRATER
LAKE TO CHEMULT FROM SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE SINCE MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT FOR LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO INCREASED THE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY GIVEN THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE SHORTWAVE UP FROM THE COAST.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND SHIFT NORTHWARD.

THEN, THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST TONIGHT AND
INLAND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS, NAM, ECMWF, AND SREF ALL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND INDICATE RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND
SPREADING INLAND INTO AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON AS
THIS SYSTEM BRINGS A FRONT INLAND ON WEDNESDAY. EAST OF THE
CASCADES EXPECT LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN-MOST KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ALSO TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE MID 30S FOR
AREAS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES,
EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S AND FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
AND A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY.
THIS MAY BRING SOME STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, EXPECT A DRY AND HOT
PATTERN TO DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ALSO A THERMAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST AND
BRING CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND TO AREAS
ALONG  THE COAST. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MAY BRING
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SO HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST, MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/06Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COAST WILL SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER UMPQUA BASIN EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN CLEAR TO VFR BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 21 JULY 2014...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TODAY...THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

CC/CC/CC






000
FXUS66 KMFR 221040
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
340 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ALONG
130W WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS INLAND.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER MANY INLAND AREAS TODAY. FURTHER,
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING HAIL OR
WIND WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THEN ON WEDNESDAY, THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACNW COAST BRINGING A FRONT INTO THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

MODEL FORECASTS HAVE REMAINED ON TRACK SHOWING THAT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM
NEAR THE I-5 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN SOUTHERN OREGON AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. LIFTED INDICES ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST TO BE AROUND -2 TO -4 AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7 TO 8 ARE FORECAST. MUCAPE VALUES OF NEAR 500 OR GREATER ARE
INDICATED AS WELL. AS UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA BRINGING AREAS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. BULK SHEAR
OF 30 KTS IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT, EXPECT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING HAIL OR WINDS.

HAVE INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE AREA FROM CRATER
LAKE TO CHEMULT FROM SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE SINCE MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT FOR LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO INCREASED THE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY GIVEN THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE SHORTWAVE UP FROM THE COAST.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND SHIFT NORTHWARD.

THEN, THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST TONIGHT AND
INLAND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS, NAM, ECMWF, AND SREF ALL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND INDICATE RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND
SPREADING INLAND INTO AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON AS
THIS SYSTEM BRINGS A FRONT INLAND ON WEDNESDAY. EAST OF THE
CASCADES EXPECT LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN-MOST KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ALSO TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE MID 30S FOR
AREAS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES,
EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S AND FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
AND A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY.
THIS MAY BRING SOME STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, EXPECT A DRY AND HOT
PATTERN TO DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ALSO A THERMAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST AND
BRING CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND TO AREAS
ALONG  THE COAST. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MAY BRING
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SO HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST, MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/06Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COAST WILL SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER UMPQUA BASIN EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN CLEAR TO VFR BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 21 JULY 2014...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TODAY...THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

CC/CC/CC






000
FXUS66 KMFR 221040
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
340 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ALONG
130W WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS INLAND.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER MANY INLAND AREAS TODAY. FURTHER,
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING HAIL OR
WIND WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THEN ON WEDNESDAY, THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACNW COAST BRINGING A FRONT INTO THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

MODEL FORECASTS HAVE REMAINED ON TRACK SHOWING THAT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM
NEAR THE I-5 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN SOUTHERN OREGON AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. LIFTED INDICES ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST TO BE AROUND -2 TO -4 AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7 TO 8 ARE FORECAST. MUCAPE VALUES OF NEAR 500 OR GREATER ARE
INDICATED AS WELL. AS UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA BRINGING AREAS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. BULK SHEAR
OF 30 KTS IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT, EXPECT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING HAIL OR WINDS.

HAVE INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE AREA FROM CRATER
LAKE TO CHEMULT FROM SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE SINCE MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT FOR LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO INCREASED THE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY GIVEN THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE SHORTWAVE UP FROM THE COAST.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND SHIFT NORTHWARD.

THEN, THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST TONIGHT AND
INLAND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS, NAM, ECMWF, AND SREF ALL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND INDICATE RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND
SPREADING INLAND INTO AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON AS
THIS SYSTEM BRINGS A FRONT INLAND ON WEDNESDAY. EAST OF THE
CASCADES EXPECT LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN-MOST KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ALSO TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE MID 30S FOR
AREAS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES,
EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S AND FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
AND A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY.
THIS MAY BRING SOME STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, EXPECT A DRY AND HOT
PATTERN TO DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ALSO A THERMAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST AND
BRING CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND TO AREAS
ALONG  THE COAST. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MAY BRING
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SO HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST, MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/06Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COAST WILL SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER UMPQUA BASIN EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN CLEAR TO VFR BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 21 JULY 2014...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TODAY...THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

CC/CC/CC






000
FXUS66 KMFR 221040
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
340 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ALONG
130W WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS INLAND.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER MANY INLAND AREAS TODAY. FURTHER,
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING HAIL OR
WIND WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THEN ON WEDNESDAY, THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACNW COAST BRINGING A FRONT INTO THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

MODEL FORECASTS HAVE REMAINED ON TRACK SHOWING THAT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM
NEAR THE I-5 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN SOUTHERN OREGON AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. LIFTED INDICES ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST TO BE AROUND -2 TO -4 AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7 TO 8 ARE FORECAST. MUCAPE VALUES OF NEAR 500 OR GREATER ARE
INDICATED AS WELL. AS UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA BRINGING AREAS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. BULK SHEAR
OF 30 KTS IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT, EXPECT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING HAIL OR WINDS.

HAVE INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE AREA FROM CRATER
LAKE TO CHEMULT FROM SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE SINCE MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT FOR LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO INCREASED THE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY GIVEN THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE SHORTWAVE UP FROM THE COAST.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND SHIFT NORTHWARD.

THEN, THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST TONIGHT AND
INLAND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS, NAM, ECMWF, AND SREF ALL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND INDICATE RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND
SPREADING INLAND INTO AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON AS
THIS SYSTEM BRINGS A FRONT INLAND ON WEDNESDAY. EAST OF THE
CASCADES EXPECT LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN-MOST KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ALSO TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE MID 30S FOR
AREAS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES,
EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S AND FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
AND A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY.
THIS MAY BRING SOME STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, EXPECT A DRY AND HOT
PATTERN TO DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ALSO A THERMAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST AND
BRING CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND TO AREAS
ALONG  THE COAST. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MAY BRING
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SO HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST, MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/06Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COAST WILL SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER UMPQUA BASIN EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN CLEAR TO VFR BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 21 JULY 2014...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TODAY...THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

CC/CC/CC






000
FXUS65 KBOI 220922
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
322 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WE REMAIN IN SW FLOW ALOFT
WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND ABOVE-AVERAGE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.
THIS COMBINATION LED TO A GREAT DEAL OF LIGHTNING YDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN SE OREGON. CHANCES ARE GOOD THAT WE WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT AGAIN TODAY. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS US IN A /SEE TEXT/
AREA...MEANING WE ARE NEAR THEIR THRESHOLD FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A
VORT MAX LOCATED NEAR 33 N 127 W AS OF 2 AM MDT WAS MOVING NE.
THIS WILL ACCELERATE LATER TODAY AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE AREA. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORT MAX WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS VORT MAX IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A JET MAX OF AROUND 90 KTS AT 300 MB. THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
SHEAR TO MAINTAIN LONG-LIVED AND ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. PW
VALUES ARE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCH ACROSS THE AREA...SO STORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN IN THE CORES...ALONG WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 40 MPH...INCREASING
THE CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS BUT DECREASING THE CHANCES FOR FLASH
FLOODING. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE FIRE
WEATHER ZONES BECAUSE OF THE ANTICIPATED LIGHTNING. SEE BELOW FOR
DETAILS. WED...AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH...WE WILL
FIND OURSELVES IN A DRY SLOT AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NRN
QUARTER OF THE CWA. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND WED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER...
DRIER...AND MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER LEVEL HIGH REBUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS BY 00Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH OF A KBNO-KMUO-KSUN LINE AFTER 06Z. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. SURFACE
WINDS...VARIABLE AROUND 10 KTS EXCEPT GUSTS TO 40 KTS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 20 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     TONIGHT IDZ400-401-420-423.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM MDT /2 PM PDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT ORZ636-637-646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 220922
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
322 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WE REMAIN IN SW FLOW ALOFT
WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND ABOVE-AVERAGE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.
THIS COMBINATION LED TO A GREAT DEAL OF LIGHTNING YDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN SE OREGON. CHANCES ARE GOOD THAT WE WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT AGAIN TODAY. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS US IN A /SEE TEXT/
AREA...MEANING WE ARE NEAR THEIR THRESHOLD FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A
VORT MAX LOCATED NEAR 33 N 127 W AS OF 2 AM MDT WAS MOVING NE.
THIS WILL ACCELERATE LATER TODAY AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE AREA. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORT MAX WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS VORT MAX IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A JET MAX OF AROUND 90 KTS AT 300 MB. THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
SHEAR TO MAINTAIN LONG-LIVED AND ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. PW
VALUES ARE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCH ACROSS THE AREA...SO STORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN IN THE CORES...ALONG WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 40 MPH...INCREASING
THE CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS BUT DECREASING THE CHANCES FOR FLASH
FLOODING. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE FIRE
WEATHER ZONES BECAUSE OF THE ANTICIPATED LIGHTNING. SEE BELOW FOR
DETAILS. WED...AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH...WE WILL
FIND OURSELVES IN A DRY SLOT AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NRN
QUARTER OF THE CWA. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND WED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER...
DRIER...AND MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER LEVEL HIGH REBUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS BY 00Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH OF A KBNO-KMUO-KSUN LINE AFTER 06Z. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. SURFACE
WINDS...VARIABLE AROUND 10 KTS EXCEPT GUSTS TO 40 KTS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 20 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     TONIGHT IDZ400-401-420-423.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM MDT /2 PM PDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT ORZ636-637-646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS66 KPDT 220855
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
155 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP DOWN FROM THE BC COAST CAUSING THE FLOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEING PUMPED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA AT THIS
TIME WITH A FEW STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
EARLIER LAST EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING AT THIS TIME SO
THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING IS DECREASING WITH MAINLY JUST SHOWERS
AROUND. THIS AFTERNOON THE BULK SHEAR...NEGATIVE LI`S AND CAPE
VALUES ALL INCREASE FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALSO INCREASING WHICH MEANS
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HEAVY RAIN WITH THEM...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS SUCH A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY BEGINNING AT
11 AM FOR THE ENTIRE FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE OREGON PORTION OF THE CWA AND FIRE
WEATHER DISTRICT...EXCEPT IT ALSO INCLUDES THE NORTHWEST BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS IN WASHINGTON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF CAPE...NEGATIVE
LI`S AND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEREFORE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA/FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. AS SUCH THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY COOL COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH DRYING AND STABILIZATION
TAKING PLACE. AS A RESULT WILL SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RAPIDLY
DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA. 88

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.  THERE IS A LITTLE HINT OF SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MOVING UP THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER
100S...EXCEPT MID 80S TO LOWER 90S MOUNTAINS MONDAY.  DUE TO STRONG
SURFACED BASED HEATING AND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON ON
MONDAY.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS.  ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR OR LESS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH VARYING BASES WILL REMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE OVER TIME...AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  WILL INTRODUCE VCTS AT KRDM AND KBDN AFTER
18Z AND AT KPDT AND KALW AFTER 02Z/23RD.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR
OTHER TAF SITES TO OBSERVE THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE REMOVED THESE FROM
THE FORECAST.  WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WITH NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  85  62  82  54 /  30  40  40  30
ALW  87  66  86  57 /  30  40  40  30
PSC  87  65  86  57 /  20  30  40  30
YKM  79  62  79  53 /  20  30  50  30
HRI  87  64  84  55 /  20  30  40  30
ELN  77  58  73  51 /  20  30  50  30
RDM  80  55  73  43 /  30  40  30  20
LGD  83  58  81  51 /  40  50  40  30
GCD  85  59  82  48 /  30  50  30  20
DLS  79  65  75  56 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/89/89












000
FXUS66 KPDT 220855
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
155 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP DOWN FROM THE BC COAST CAUSING THE FLOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEING PUMPED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA AT THIS
TIME WITH A FEW STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
EARLIER LAST EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING AT THIS TIME SO
THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING IS DECREASING WITH MAINLY JUST SHOWERS
AROUND. THIS AFTERNOON THE BULK SHEAR...NEGATIVE LI`S AND CAPE
VALUES ALL INCREASE FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALSO INCREASING WHICH MEANS
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HEAVY RAIN WITH THEM...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS SUCH A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY BEGINNING AT
11 AM FOR THE ENTIRE FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE OREGON PORTION OF THE CWA AND FIRE
WEATHER DISTRICT...EXCEPT IT ALSO INCLUDES THE NORTHWEST BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS IN WASHINGTON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF CAPE...NEGATIVE
LI`S AND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEREFORE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA/FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. AS SUCH THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY COOL COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH DRYING AND STABILIZATION
TAKING PLACE. AS A RESULT WILL SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RAPIDLY
DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA. 88

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.  THERE IS A LITTLE HINT OF SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MOVING UP THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER
100S...EXCEPT MID 80S TO LOWER 90S MOUNTAINS MONDAY.  DUE TO STRONG
SURFACED BASED HEATING AND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON ON
MONDAY.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS.  ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR OR LESS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH VARYING BASES WILL REMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE OVER TIME...AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  WILL INTRODUCE VCTS AT KRDM AND KBDN AFTER
18Z AND AT KPDT AND KALW AFTER 02Z/23RD.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR
OTHER TAF SITES TO OBSERVE THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE REMOVED THESE FROM
THE FORECAST.  WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WITH NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  85  62  82  54 /  30  40  40  30
ALW  87  66  86  57 /  30  40  40  30
PSC  87  65  86  57 /  20  30  40  30
YKM  79  62  79  53 /  20  30  50  30
HRI  87  64  84  55 /  20  30  40  30
ELN  77  58  73  51 /  20  30  50  30
RDM  80  55  73  43 /  30  40  30  20
LGD  83  58  81  51 /  40  50  40  30
GCD  85  59  82  48 /  30  50  30  20
DLS  79  65  75  56 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/89/89











000
FXUS66 KPDT 220517
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1020 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR UPDATES PLANNED.
FORECASTERS ARE WATCHING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
KLAMATH FALLS TO SENECA. STORMS APPEAR RELATIVELY WEAK WITH LESS
THAN 50 DBZ RETURNS. AS THE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS MORE TO THE
SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN GRANT COUNTY, UNION, AND
WALLOWA COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A MID LEVEL WAVE
OFF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST THAT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES
LATE TONIGHT AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ALL OF
THESE AREAS COVERED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPDATE WILL BE
MADE TO INCREASE A FEW ZONES INTO THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS.  ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR OR LESS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH VARYING BASES WILL REMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE OVER TIME...AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  WILL INTRODUCE VCTS AT KRDM AND KBDN AFTER
18Z AND AT KPDT AND KALW AFTER 02Z/23RD.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR
OTHER TAF SITES TO OBSERVE THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE REMOVED THESE FROM
THE FORECAST.  WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WITH NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS.  WISTER


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS MOVING
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
LOW IS TURNING THE UPPER FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND WILL INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE SHORT
TERM...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND MAY
MOVE UP INTO CENTRAL OREGON AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. IN ADDITIONAL TO THIS A BAND OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WILL INCREASE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS AS WELL. BY WEDNESDAY THE
LOW IS MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL BE INCREASING WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS BY AFTERNOON.
BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE JET SOME OF THE STORMS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS COULD BE STRONG. THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO IDAHO/MONTANA ON
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING AND SKIES CLEARING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS CONTINUING. 94

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON
A GENERALLY DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
WARMING TREND.  TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
PRODUCE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BUT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WX...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY WILL
CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE WETTING RAIN...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH
COULD START NEW FIRES IN VERY DRY FUELS. STORMS WILL BEGIN
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AROUND
MID-DAY TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE NORTH INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOME PLACES BUT THERE IS
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE FORECAST MODELS. AS THE LOW MOVES
INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE THEREFORE BEING
ISSUED FOR THE ABUNDANT LIGHTNING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  82  62  86  62 /   0  10  20  40
ALW  82  66  88  66 /   0  10  20  40
PSC  84  64  90  65 /   0  10  20  30
YKM  78  60  83  62 /   0  10  20  30
HRI  84  62  88  64 /   0  10  20  30
ELN  81  54  80  58 /   0  10  20  30
RDM  81  53  84  55 /  10  20  30  40
LGD  81  57  83  58 /  10  20  40  50
GCD  83  56  87  59 /  20  20  30  50
DLS  83  62  82  65 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85









000
FXUS66 KPDT 220517
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1020 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR UPDATES PLANNED.
FORECASTERS ARE WATCHING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
KLAMATH FALLS TO SENECA. STORMS APPEAR RELATIVELY WEAK WITH LESS
THAN 50 DBZ RETURNS. AS THE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS MORE TO THE
SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN GRANT COUNTY, UNION, AND
WALLOWA COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A MID LEVEL WAVE
OFF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST THAT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES
LATE TONIGHT AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ALL OF
THESE AREAS COVERED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPDATE WILL BE
MADE TO INCREASE A FEW ZONES INTO THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS.  ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR OR LESS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH VARYING BASES WILL REMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE OVER TIME...AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  WILL INTRODUCE VCTS AT KRDM AND KBDN AFTER
18Z AND AT KPDT AND KALW AFTER 02Z/23RD.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR
OTHER TAF SITES TO OBSERVE THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE REMOVED THESE FROM
THE FORECAST.  WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WITH NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS.  WISTER


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS MOVING
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
LOW IS TURNING THE UPPER FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND WILL INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE SHORT
TERM...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND MAY
MOVE UP INTO CENTRAL OREGON AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. IN ADDITIONAL TO THIS A BAND OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WILL INCREASE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS AS WELL. BY WEDNESDAY THE
LOW IS MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL BE INCREASING WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS BY AFTERNOON.
BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE JET SOME OF THE STORMS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS COULD BE STRONG. THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO IDAHO/MONTANA ON
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING AND SKIES CLEARING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS CONTINUING. 94

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON
A GENERALLY DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
WARMING TREND.  TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
PRODUCE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BUT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WX...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY WILL
CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE WETTING RAIN...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH
COULD START NEW FIRES IN VERY DRY FUELS. STORMS WILL BEGIN
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AROUND
MID-DAY TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE NORTH INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOME PLACES BUT THERE IS
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE FORECAST MODELS. AS THE LOW MOVES
INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE THEREFORE BEING
ISSUED FOR THE ABUNDANT LIGHTNING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  82  62  86  62 /   0  10  20  40
ALW  82  66  88  66 /   0  10  20  40
PSC  84  64  90  65 /   0  10  20  30
YKM  78  60  83  62 /   0  10  20  30
HRI  84  62  88  64 /   0  10  20  30
ELN  81  54  80  58 /   0  10  20  30
RDM  81  53  84  55 /  10  20  30  40
LGD  81  57  83  58 /  10  20  40  50
GCD  83  56  87  59 /  20  20  30  50
DLS  83  62  82  65 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85








000
FXUS66 KPQR 220415 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
915 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CASCADE CREST TUESDAY
EVENING. EVEN THOUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
DRIER AND MORE SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES WITH THE EVENING UPDATE AS THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SEMI SPLITTING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC WITH AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND ANOTHER ONE OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER SHORTWAVE BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS DIGGING OFF
OF NORTHEN CALIFORNIA. THESE SYSEMS ARE STEERING A BAND OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS OREGON.  A WEAK FRONT THAT WAS STALLED SOUTH OF LANE
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED NORTH THIS EVENING AND IS
GENERATING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER LANE COUNTY. A BAND OF CONVECDTION
SOUTH OF THIS FRONT IS APPROACHING LANE COUNTY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF LANE COUNTY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOOP OF
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR 135W
AND 40N. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON ALONG AN OLD MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE. WHILE DOPPLER RADAR HAS LOOKED RATHER OMINOUS
UNDERNEATH THIS BAND...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING IN
THE FORM OF VIRGA. HOWEVER...THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS BEGINNING TO
MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN NEAR ROSEBURG WHERE A COUPLE OF RAWS
STATIONS HAVE RECENTLY MEASURED A HUNDREDTH. WHILE MODELS PRODUCE
LITTLE QPF ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT...MOST MODELS AGREE THIS BAND WILL
HOLD TOGETHER...IF NOT STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...AS IT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY WARM FRONTAL AND SHIFTS EVER SO SLOWLY NORTHWARD
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR TONIGHT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PORTLAND DUE TO THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION.

AS A MORE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR
THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS...CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TUESDAY...THE MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BUCKLE AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE
AFOREMENTIONED BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE CASCADES WILL BEGIN TO
DESTABILIZE AS SKIES CLEAR A BIT. A CAP MAY INHIBIT SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE CWA...MAY CLIP OUR
CASCADES AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EASTERN LANE AND LINN COUNTIES.

THE MAIN VORT MAX AND COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PIVOT EASTWARD...IF NOT SLIGHTLY
NORTHEASTWARD...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER MAY INITIALLY LIMIT CONVECTION...BUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUN BREAKS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BUBBLE UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MANY OF THE FOOTHILLS AND SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE WETTING RAINS. SHOWERS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
ON THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE MUCH DRIER AND
PLEASANT WEATHER ON THURSDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO GET BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY REACH
THE LOW 90S IN SOME AREAS INLAND AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS
AROUND 10K-25K FT. BAND OF RAIN IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS EVENING...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH TOWARDS KSLE TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME
LOWERING CLOUDS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCAL MVFR THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW THAT CIGS LOWER INTO MVFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. CULLEN/27
&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK...KEEPING WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE DECREASING INTO THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE THROUGH THU.

A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS TUE INTO
WED...BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 15-20 KT OR
LESS. LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER THE NE PAC AS
THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA...BRINGING A RETURN TO
GUSTY N WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 220411
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
910 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CASCADE CREST TUESDAY
EVENING. EVEN THOUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
DRIER AND MORE SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES WITH THE EVENING UPDATE AS THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SEMI SPLITTING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC WITH AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND ANOTHER ONE OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER SHORTWAVE BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS DIGGING OFF
OF NORTHEN CALIFORNIA. THESE SYSEMS ARE STEERING A BAND OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS OREGON.  A WEAK FRONT THAT WAS STALLED SOUTH OF LANE
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED NORTH THIS EVENING AND IS
GENERATING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER LANE COUNTY. A BAND OF CONVECDTION
SOUTH OF THIS FRONT IS APPROACHING LANE COUNTY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF LANE COUNTY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOOP OF
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR 135W
AND 40N. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON ALONG AN OLD MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE. WHILE DOPPLER RADAR HAS LOOKED RATHER OMINOUS
UNDERNEATH THIS BAND...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING IN
THE FORM OF VIRGA. HOWEVER...THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS BEGINNING TO
MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN NEAR ROSEBURG WHERE A COUPLE OF RAWS
STATIONS HAVE RECENTLY MEASURED A HUNDREDTH. WHILE MODELS PRODUCE
LITTLE QPF ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT...MOST MODELS AGREE THIS BAND WILL
HOLD TOGETHER...IF NOT STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...AS IT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY WARM FRONTAL AND SHIFTS EVER SO SLOWLY NORTHWARD
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR TONIGHT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PORTLAND DUE TO THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION.

AS A MORE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR
THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS...CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TUESDAY...THE MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BUCKLE AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE
AFOREMENTIONED BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE CASCADES WILL BEGIN TO
DESTABILIZE AS SKIES CLEAR A BIT. A CAP MAY INHIBIT SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE CWA...MAY CLIP OUR
CASCADES AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EASTERN LANE AND LINN COUNTIES.

THE MAIN VORT MAX AND COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PIVOT EASTWARD...IF NOT SLIGHTLY
NORTHEASTWARD...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER MAY INITIALLY LIMIT CONVECTION...BUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUN BREAKS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BUBBLE UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MANY OF THE FOOTHILLS AND SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE WETTING RAINS. SHOWERS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
ON THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE MUCH DRIER AND
PLEASANT WEATHER ON THURSDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO GET BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY REACH
THE LOW 90S IN SOME AREAS INLAND AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS
AROUND 10K-25K FT. BAND OF RAIN IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS EVENING...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH TOWARDS KSLE TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME
LOWERING CLOUDS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCAL MVFR THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW THAT CIGS LOWER INTO MVFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. CULLEN/27
&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK...KEEPING WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE DECREASING INTO THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE THROUGH THU.

A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS TUE INTO
WED...BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 15-20 KT OR
LESS. LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER THE NE PAC AS
THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA...BRINGING A RETURN TO
GUSTY N WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 220411
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
910 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CASCADE CREST TUESDAY
EVENING. EVEN THOUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
DRIER AND MORE SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES WITH THE EVENING UPDATE AS THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SEMI SPLITTING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC WITH AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND ANOTHER ONE OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER SHORTWAVE BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS DIGGING OFF
OF NORTHEN CALIFORNIA. THESE SYSEMS ARE STEERING A BAND OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS OREGON.  A WEAK FRONT THAT WAS STALLED SOUTH OF LANE
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED NORTH THIS EVENING AND IS
GENERATING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER LANE COUNTY. A BAND OF CONVECDTION
SOUTH OF THIS FRONT IS APPROACHING LANE COUNTY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF LANE COUNTY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOOP OF
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR 135W
AND 40N. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON ALONG AN OLD MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE. WHILE DOPPLER RADAR HAS LOOKED RATHER OMINOUS
UNDERNEATH THIS BAND...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING IN
THE FORM OF VIRGA. HOWEVER...THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS BEGINNING TO
MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN NEAR ROSEBURG WHERE A COUPLE OF RAWS
STATIONS HAVE RECENTLY MEASURED A HUNDREDTH. WHILE MODELS PRODUCE
LITTLE QPF ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT...MOST MODELS AGREE THIS BAND WILL
HOLD TOGETHER...IF NOT STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...AS IT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY WARM FRONTAL AND SHIFTS EVER SO SLOWLY NORTHWARD
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR TONIGHT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PORTLAND DUE TO THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION.

AS A MORE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR
THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS...CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TUESDAY...THE MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BUCKLE AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE
AFOREMENTIONED BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE CASCADES WILL BEGIN TO
DESTABILIZE AS SKIES CLEAR A BIT. A CAP MAY INHIBIT SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE CWA...MAY CLIP OUR
CASCADES AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EASTERN LANE AND LINN COUNTIES.

THE MAIN VORT MAX AND COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PIVOT EASTWARD...IF NOT SLIGHTLY
NORTHEASTWARD...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER MAY INITIALLY LIMIT CONVECTION...BUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUN BREAKS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BUBBLE UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MANY OF THE FOOTHILLS AND SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE WETTING RAINS. SHOWERS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
ON THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE MUCH DRIER AND
PLEASANT WEATHER ON THURSDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO GET BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY REACH
THE LOW 90S IN SOME AREAS INLAND AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS
AROUND 10K-25K FT. BAND OF RAIN IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS EVENING...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH TOWARDS KSLE TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME
LOWERING CLOUDS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCAL MVFR THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW THAT CIGS LOWER INTO MVFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. CULLEN/27
&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK...KEEPING WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE DECREASING INTO THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE THROUGH THU.

A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS TUE INTO
WED...BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 15-20 KT OR
LESS. LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER THE NE PAC AS
THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA...BRINGING A RETURN TO
GUSTY N WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 220314
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
814 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR UPDATES PLANNED.
FORECASTERS ARE WATCHING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
KLAMATH FALLS TO SENECA. STORMS APPEAR RELATIVELY WEAK WITH LESS
THAN 50 DBZ RETURNS. AS THE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS MORE TO THE
SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN GRANT COUNTY, UNION, AND
WALLOWA COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A MID LEVEL WAVE
OFF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST THAT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES
LATE TONIGHT AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ALL OF
THESE AREAS COVERED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPDATE WILL BE
MADE TO INCREASE A FEW ZONES INTO THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. WISTER



&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS MOVING
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
LOW IS TURNING THE UPPER FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND WILL INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE SHORT
TERM...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND MAY
MOVE UP INTO CENTRAL OREGON AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. IN ADDITIONAL TO THIS A BAND OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WILL INCREASE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS AS WELL. BY WEDNESDAY THE
LOW IS MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL BE INCREASING WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS BY AFTERNOON.
BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE JET SOME OF THE STORMS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS COULD BE STRONG. THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO IDAHO/MONTANA ON
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING AND SKIES CLEARING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS CONTINUING. 94

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON
A GENERALLY DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
WARMING TREND.  TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
PRODUCE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BUT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS. ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR VCTS
AFTER 06Z AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING
8-10K AGL.

FIRE WX...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY WILL
CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE WETTING RAIN...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH
COULD START NEW FIRES IN VERY DRY FUELS. STORMS WILL BEGIN
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AROUND
MID-DAY TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE NORTH INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOME PLACES BUT THERE IS
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE FORECAST MODELS. AS THE LOW MOVES
INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE THEREFORE BEING
ISSUED FOR THE ABUNDANT LIGHTNING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  82  62  86  62 /   0  10  20  40
ALW  82  66  88  66 /   0  10  20  40
PSC  84  64  90  65 /   0  10  20  30
YKM  78  60  83  62 /   0  10  20  30
HRI  84  62  88  64 /   0  10  20  30
ELN  81  54  80  58 /   0  10  20  30
RDM  81  53  84  55 /  10  20  30  40
LGD  81  57  83  58 /  10  20  40  50
GCD  83  56  87  59 /  20  20  30  50
DLS  83  62  82  65 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85





000
FXUS66 KMFR 220300
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...22/00Z NAM IN.

QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER MODOC COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALONG WITH A FEW IN EASTERN LAKE COUNTY. ANOTHER BAND DEVELOPED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THAT ROUND GENERATED A BUNCH
OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY...ARCING NORTHEAST INTO
THE CASCADES AND THE EAST SIDE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
ACTIVE AT THIS TIME...MOSTLY OVER LAKE COUNTY...BUT OVERALL THE
ACTIVITY IS WINDING DOWN.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...IN TERMS OF CONVECTION AND WIND...WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN USUALLY STRONG TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN ALONG 130W THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT WILL MOVE
EAST ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL THEN HEAD OUT TO THE EAST
THURSDAY.

INITIALLY THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WERE SOME
TODAY BUT TOMORROW SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE...AND THIS WILL
BRING MORE MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE 21/12Z GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 BUT WITH
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD...AND RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER. DRY LIGHTNING WILL NOT BE A BIG
ISSUE...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES IN AREAS THAT GET
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALL
OF THE CWA BUT THE COAST...LOWER UMPQUA AND THE KALMIOPSIS/ILLINOIS
VALLEY AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WINDS AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INLAND. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER BUT WINDS WILL BE QUITE
STRONG OVER THE RIDGES AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. THERE WILL BE
SOME SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST
AND UMPQUA BASIN. IT WILL BE MORE STABLE THAT DAY WITH THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE NORTH...BUT SOME MAY GET GOING OVER
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. IT WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP LATER IN THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT AND THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS
NORTHWEST. HOT READINGS SHOULD BE FELT BY THIS WEEKEND. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD WORK ITS WAY
NORTH FROM THE SIERRA INTO THE MODOC COUNTY AREA LATER THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/00Z TAFS...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM THE SISKIYOUS AND NORTH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE EAST SIDE OREGON ZONES THIS EVENING. THESE
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING BUT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS, GUSTY WINDS, AND
LIGHTNING. ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AND WILL THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT THE COAST WHERE STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS
IS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1245 PM PDT 21 JULY 2014...WEAK HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. -WRIGHT

&&


.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
        ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
        CAZ280>282-284-285.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/15




000
FXUS66 KMFR 220300
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...22/00Z NAM IN.

QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER MODOC COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALONG WITH A FEW IN EASTERN LAKE COUNTY. ANOTHER BAND DEVELOPED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THAT ROUND GENERATED A BUNCH
OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY...ARCING NORTHEAST INTO
THE CASCADES AND THE EAST SIDE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
ACTIVE AT THIS TIME...MOSTLY OVER LAKE COUNTY...BUT OVERALL THE
ACTIVITY IS WINDING DOWN.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...IN TERMS OF CONVECTION AND WIND...WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN USUALLY STRONG TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN ALONG 130W THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT WILL MOVE
EAST ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL THEN HEAD OUT TO THE EAST
THURSDAY.

INITIALLY THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WERE SOME
TODAY BUT TOMORROW SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE...AND THIS WILL
BRING MORE MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE 21/12Z GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 BUT WITH
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD...AND RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER. DRY LIGHTNING WILL NOT BE A BIG
ISSUE...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES IN AREAS THAT GET
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALL
OF THE CWA BUT THE COAST...LOWER UMPQUA AND THE KALMIOPSIS/ILLINOIS
VALLEY AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WINDS AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INLAND. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER BUT WINDS WILL BE QUITE
STRONG OVER THE RIDGES AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. THERE WILL BE
SOME SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST
AND UMPQUA BASIN. IT WILL BE MORE STABLE THAT DAY WITH THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE NORTH...BUT SOME MAY GET GOING OVER
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. IT WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP LATER IN THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT AND THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS
NORTHWEST. HOT READINGS SHOULD BE FELT BY THIS WEEKEND. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD WORK ITS WAY
NORTH FROM THE SIERRA INTO THE MODOC COUNTY AREA LATER THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/00Z TAFS...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM THE SISKIYOUS AND NORTH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE EAST SIDE OREGON ZONES THIS EVENING. THESE
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING BUT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS, GUSTY WINDS, AND
LIGHTNING. ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AND WILL THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT THE COAST WHERE STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS
IS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1245 PM PDT 21 JULY 2014...WEAK HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. -WRIGHT

&&


.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
        ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
        CAZ280>282-284-285.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/15




000
FXUS66 KMFR 220300
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...22/00Z NAM IN.

QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER MODOC COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALONG WITH A FEW IN EASTERN LAKE COUNTY. ANOTHER BAND DEVELOPED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THAT ROUND GENERATED A BUNCH
OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY...ARCING NORTHEAST INTO
THE CASCADES AND THE EAST SIDE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
ACTIVE AT THIS TIME...MOSTLY OVER LAKE COUNTY...BUT OVERALL THE
ACTIVITY IS WINDING DOWN.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...IN TERMS OF CONVECTION AND WIND...WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN USUALLY STRONG TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN ALONG 130W THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT WILL MOVE
EAST ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL THEN HEAD OUT TO THE EAST
THURSDAY.

INITIALLY THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WERE SOME
TODAY BUT TOMORROW SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE...AND THIS WILL
BRING MORE MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE 21/12Z GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 BUT WITH
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD...AND RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER. DRY LIGHTNING WILL NOT BE A BIG
ISSUE...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES IN AREAS THAT GET
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALL
OF THE CWA BUT THE COAST...LOWER UMPQUA AND THE KALMIOPSIS/ILLINOIS
VALLEY AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WINDS AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INLAND. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER BUT WINDS WILL BE QUITE
STRONG OVER THE RIDGES AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. THERE WILL BE
SOME SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST
AND UMPQUA BASIN. IT WILL BE MORE STABLE THAT DAY WITH THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE NORTH...BUT SOME MAY GET GOING OVER
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. IT WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP LATER IN THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT AND THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS
NORTHWEST. HOT READINGS SHOULD BE FELT BY THIS WEEKEND. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD WORK ITS WAY
NORTH FROM THE SIERRA INTO THE MODOC COUNTY AREA LATER THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/00Z TAFS...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM THE SISKIYOUS AND NORTH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE EAST SIDE OREGON ZONES THIS EVENING. THESE
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING BUT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS, GUSTY WINDS, AND
LIGHTNING. ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AND WILL THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT THE COAST WHERE STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS
IS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1245 PM PDT 21 JULY 2014...WEAK HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. -WRIGHT

&&


.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
        ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
        CAZ280>282-284-285.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/15




000
FXUS66 KMFR 220300
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...22/00Z NAM IN.

QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER MODOC COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALONG WITH A FEW IN EASTERN LAKE COUNTY. ANOTHER BAND DEVELOPED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THAT ROUND GENERATED A BUNCH
OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY...ARCING NORTHEAST INTO
THE CASCADES AND THE EAST SIDE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
ACTIVE AT THIS TIME...MOSTLY OVER LAKE COUNTY...BUT OVERALL THE
ACTIVITY IS WINDING DOWN.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...IN TERMS OF CONVECTION AND WIND...WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN USUALLY STRONG TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN ALONG 130W THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT WILL MOVE
EAST ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL THEN HEAD OUT TO THE EAST
THURSDAY.

INITIALLY THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WERE SOME
TODAY BUT TOMORROW SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE...AND THIS WILL
BRING MORE MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE 21/12Z GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 BUT WITH
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD...AND RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER. DRY LIGHTNING WILL NOT BE A BIG
ISSUE...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES IN AREAS THAT GET
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALL
OF THE CWA BUT THE COAST...LOWER UMPQUA AND THE KALMIOPSIS/ILLINOIS
VALLEY AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WINDS AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INLAND. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER BUT WINDS WILL BE QUITE
STRONG OVER THE RIDGES AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. THERE WILL BE
SOME SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST
AND UMPQUA BASIN. IT WILL BE MORE STABLE THAT DAY WITH THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE NORTH...BUT SOME MAY GET GOING OVER
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. IT WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP LATER IN THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT AND THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS
NORTHWEST. HOT READINGS SHOULD BE FELT BY THIS WEEKEND. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD WORK ITS WAY
NORTH FROM THE SIERRA INTO THE MODOC COUNTY AREA LATER THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/00Z TAFS...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM THE SISKIYOUS AND NORTH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE EAST SIDE OREGON ZONES THIS EVENING. THESE
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING BUT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS, GUSTY WINDS, AND
LIGHTNING. ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AND WILL THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT THE COAST WHERE STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS
IS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1245 PM PDT 21 JULY 2014...WEAK HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. -WRIGHT

&&


.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
        ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
        CAZ280>282-284-285.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/15




000
FXUS65 KBOI 220251
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
851 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...FOR THE MOST PART...CONVECTION HAS BEEN WINDING DOWN
IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS WE HEAD TOWARD SUNSET. MOST OF THE
COVERAGE WAS ISOLATED WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER SE
OREGON. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVENING FORECAST
WAS UPDATED FOR THESE LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASING AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE 12KT OR
LESS. WINDS GUSTS UP TO 35KT IN VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL...SW 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING
ON THE EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD/MORE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION FROM
ROME THROUGH STANLEY. STORMS ARE BETTER DEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY WITH HIGHER SHEAR AND HIGH PW VALUES. DEW POINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S SUGGEST BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER CELLS /TWF HAD A TENTH OF INCH IN 15 MINUTES/. ISOLATED
STORMS ACROSS SE OREGON ARE LESS ORGANIZED AND HAVE SHORTER LIFE
SPANS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EVENING ENDING BY MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. BURNS THROUGH
BAKER CITY AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THAT AREA. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOST HIGH RES MODELS
SUGGEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE OREGON
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT BETTER ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH CLOUD COVER
FROM THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE OREGON/S SOUTHERN BORDER. THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS MAYBE ACROSS SE OF MOUNTAIN
HOME WHERE BETTER SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY /100-200
J/KG BL CAPE/ EXIST. HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE HAS LITTLE TO NO
STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SW IDAHO THE 18Z NAM AND 12Z GFS THE ONLY
EXCEPTION. DRIER AND COOLER WEDNESDAY ACROSS SE OREGON WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DECREASING SHOWERS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST.  THURSDAY A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE
REGION AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD
REBUILDING THE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT WILL WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....JA/AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 220251
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
851 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...FOR THE MOST PART...CONVECTION HAS BEEN WINDING DOWN
IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS WE HEAD TOWARD SUNSET. MOST OF THE
COVERAGE WAS ISOLATED WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER SE
OREGON. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVENING FORECAST
WAS UPDATED FOR THESE LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASING AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE 12KT OR
LESS. WINDS GUSTS UP TO 35KT IN VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL...SW 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING
ON THE EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD/MORE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION FROM
ROME THROUGH STANLEY. STORMS ARE BETTER DEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY WITH HIGHER SHEAR AND HIGH PW VALUES. DEW POINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S SUGGEST BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER CELLS /TWF HAD A TENTH OF INCH IN 15 MINUTES/. ISOLATED
STORMS ACROSS SE OREGON ARE LESS ORGANIZED AND HAVE SHORTER LIFE
SPANS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EVENING ENDING BY MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. BURNS THROUGH
BAKER CITY AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THAT AREA. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOST HIGH RES MODELS
SUGGEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE OREGON
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT BETTER ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH CLOUD COVER
FROM THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE OREGON/S SOUTHERN BORDER. THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS MAYBE ACROSS SE OF MOUNTAIN
HOME WHERE BETTER SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY /100-200
J/KG BL CAPE/ EXIST. HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE HAS LITTLE TO NO
STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SW IDAHO THE 18Z NAM AND 12Z GFS THE ONLY
EXCEPTION. DRIER AND COOLER WEDNESDAY ACROSS SE OREGON WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DECREASING SHOWERS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST.  THURSDAY A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE
REGION AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD
REBUILDING THE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT WILL WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....JA/AB




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities