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000
FXUS66 KPDT 210539
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
934 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH SATELLITE SHOWING GOOD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. EXPECT THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE CASCADES AND BLUES. MODELS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE A DECREASING TREND IN THE RAINFALL LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FOCUS THE BEST RAINFALL OVER THE CASCADES AND BLUES THROUGH EVENING.
WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MODELS SHOW
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN WINDS FOR ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT. PEAK WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE MIDNIGHT TO 10AM SUNDAY MORNING. SALEM 00Z SOUNDING
SHOWING 50KT AT 5000 FEET. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH MODEL
FORECASTS. BASED ON THIS EXPECT TO SEE LOCAL GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH.
MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH ARE LIKELY.  94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. STEADY RAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL THEN
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING BECOMING 15-30KT WITH GUSTS TO 40KT LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 243 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG AND WET
PACIFIC STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH AREAWIDE
THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY ACROSS THE
REGION. SNOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE TODAY, REMAINING BETWEEN
4300 TO 5000 FEET MSL OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTIONS HAVE
BEEN OVER WALLOWA COUNTY WHERE THE SNOW LEVELS ARE NOW NEAR 4000
FEET, AND OVER KITTITAS COUNTY WHERE THEY REMAIN BETWEEN 2100 AND
2500 FEET. WITH THE SNOW LEVELS LINGERING BELOW 3000 FEET OVER
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY INTO THE EVENING, HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM. SNOW LEVELS AREAWIDE SHOULD RISE THIS
EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS HAVE NOT
INCREASED AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED DUE TO THE PRECIP AND THE SLOW
ARRIVAL OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL CONTINUE ALL CURRENT WIND HIGHLIGHTS
THOUGH, AS STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. THE
FLOW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT TO BEING MORE WESTERLY. THIS
FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. AREAS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, AND THOSE PRONE
TO UPSLOPE AFFECTS, WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH CHANCES OF PRECIP LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE PRECIP CHANCES IN AREAS, SUCH AS
THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, WILL SEE LOWER PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE AFFECTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN AROUND 5000 FEET OR HIGHER
SUNDAY, THUS SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE, WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WIND DOWN OF THE PRECIP. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ON MONDAY WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. ON WEDNESDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS WASHINGTON INTO OREGON WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH. HAVE INCREASED SNOW LEVELS
SLIGHTLY WITH RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 93

CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN AS
THE CHRISTMAS EVE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE LOWLAND AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW EXITS THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES...AND INTO
THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY DRY
OUT ACROSS ALL AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS GREAT DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS
AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AND HOW COLD IT WILL GET.
THE LATEST GFS MODEL IS EXTREMELY AGGRESSIVE WITH A COLD ARCTIC
INTRUSION...HOWEVER THE COLDEST AIR WOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS MOVING IN
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO EXIT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HAVE HEDGED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF BUT DECIDED TO UNDERCUT
POP ACROSS THE BASIN...KEEPING THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MOSTLY DRY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW ELSEWHERE. WEBER

HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE OREGON CASCADES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 8000 FEET. THIS WILL PUSH
STREAMS AND RIVERS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF OREGON CASCADES TO
BANKFULL WITH FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER DESCHUTES. THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO GET HEAVY RAIN WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE LARGE RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FLOOD,
BUT SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE MINOR FLOODING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, COOLER AIR AND LESS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SEEN OVERNIGHT AND IT APPEARS MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER
SOUTH WITH NEWER FORECASTS COMING IN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE
NACHES RIVER. FLOOD WATCHES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AREAS COME IN FOCUS. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  58  38  48 /  90  50  40  10
ALW  49  58  40  49 /  90  50  50  10
PSC  46  58  37  49 /  80  30  10  10
YKM  39  54  35  45 /  80  40  20  10
HRI  48  59  37  52 /  80  40  20  10
ELN  39  49  34  43 / 100  40  20  10
RDM  45  57  35  47 /  80  70  20  10
LGD  44  53  37  46 / 100 100  80  20
GCD  43  46  36  47 / 100  80  60  20
DLS  43  56  39  51 / 100  80  30  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ORZ041-509>511.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ORZ049-050-502-503-505>508.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ044.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SUNDAY ORZ509.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ510-511.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ507.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ508.

WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WAZ024-026-027-520-521.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WAZ029-030.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ028.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ521.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ029.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ027.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR WESTERN
     KITTITAS COUNTY IN THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 210539
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
934 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH SATELLITE SHOWING GOOD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. EXPECT THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE CASCADES AND BLUES. MODELS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE A DECREASING TREND IN THE RAINFALL LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FOCUS THE BEST RAINFALL OVER THE CASCADES AND BLUES THROUGH EVENING.
WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MODELS SHOW
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN WINDS FOR ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT. PEAK WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE MIDNIGHT TO 10AM SUNDAY MORNING. SALEM 00Z SOUNDING
SHOWING 50KT AT 5000 FEET. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH MODEL
FORECASTS. BASED ON THIS EXPECT TO SEE LOCAL GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH.
MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH ARE LIKELY.  94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. STEADY RAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL THEN
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING BECOMING 15-30KT WITH GUSTS TO 40KT LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 243 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG AND WET
PACIFIC STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH AREAWIDE
THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY ACROSS THE
REGION. SNOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE TODAY, REMAINING BETWEEN
4300 TO 5000 FEET MSL OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTIONS HAVE
BEEN OVER WALLOWA COUNTY WHERE THE SNOW LEVELS ARE NOW NEAR 4000
FEET, AND OVER KITTITAS COUNTY WHERE THEY REMAIN BETWEEN 2100 AND
2500 FEET. WITH THE SNOW LEVELS LINGERING BELOW 3000 FEET OVER
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY INTO THE EVENING, HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM. SNOW LEVELS AREAWIDE SHOULD RISE THIS
EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS HAVE NOT
INCREASED AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED DUE TO THE PRECIP AND THE SLOW
ARRIVAL OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL CONTINUE ALL CURRENT WIND HIGHLIGHTS
THOUGH, AS STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. THE
FLOW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT TO BEING MORE WESTERLY. THIS
FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. AREAS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, AND THOSE PRONE
TO UPSLOPE AFFECTS, WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH CHANCES OF PRECIP LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE PRECIP CHANCES IN AREAS, SUCH AS
THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, WILL SEE LOWER PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE AFFECTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN AROUND 5000 FEET OR HIGHER
SUNDAY, THUS SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE, WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WIND DOWN OF THE PRECIP. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ON MONDAY WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. ON WEDNESDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS WASHINGTON INTO OREGON WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH. HAVE INCREASED SNOW LEVELS
SLIGHTLY WITH RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 93

CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN AS
THE CHRISTMAS EVE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE LOWLAND AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW EXITS THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES...AND INTO
THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY DRY
OUT ACROSS ALL AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS GREAT DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS
AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AND HOW COLD IT WILL GET.
THE LATEST GFS MODEL IS EXTREMELY AGGRESSIVE WITH A COLD ARCTIC
INTRUSION...HOWEVER THE COLDEST AIR WOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS MOVING IN
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO EXIT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HAVE HEDGED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF BUT DECIDED TO UNDERCUT
POP ACROSS THE BASIN...KEEPING THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MOSTLY DRY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW ELSEWHERE. WEBER

HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE OREGON CASCADES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 8000 FEET. THIS WILL PUSH
STREAMS AND RIVERS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF OREGON CASCADES TO
BANKFULL WITH FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER DESCHUTES. THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO GET HEAVY RAIN WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE LARGE RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FLOOD,
BUT SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE MINOR FLOODING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, COOLER AIR AND LESS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SEEN OVERNIGHT AND IT APPEARS MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER
SOUTH WITH NEWER FORECASTS COMING IN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE
NACHES RIVER. FLOOD WATCHES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AREAS COME IN FOCUS. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  58  38  48 /  90  50  40  10
ALW  49  58  40  49 /  90  50  50  10
PSC  46  58  37  49 /  80  30  10  10
YKM  39  54  35  45 /  80  40  20  10
HRI  48  59  37  52 /  80  40  20  10
ELN  39  49  34  43 / 100  40  20  10
RDM  45  57  35  47 /  80  70  20  10
LGD  44  53  37  46 / 100 100  80  20
GCD  43  46  36  47 / 100  80  60  20
DLS  43  56  39  51 / 100  80  30  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ORZ041-509>511.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ORZ049-050-502-503-505>508.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ044.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SUNDAY ORZ509.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ510-511.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ507.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ508.

WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WAZ024-026-027-520-521.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WAZ029-030.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ028.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ521.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ029.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ027.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR WESTERN
     KITTITAS COUNTY IN THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/






  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 210430
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND SHOULD EASE SOME
LATE SUNDAY IN TO MONDAY. THERE IS THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR RIVER
FLOODING FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODEL
OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND COAST RANGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RAINFALL CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING IN A STRONG AND MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN RECENT HOURS SUGGEST A SUBTLE SWITCH TO FOCUSING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE CASCADES...WHICH SEEMS TO LINE UP WITH MODEL
TRENDS REASONABLY WELL. ADDITIONALLY A COMPACT SHORTWAVE SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WA LATE THIS
EVENING...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL N OF THE COLUMBIA LATER
TONIGHT.

DESPITE LOWER FLOWS ON COASTAL RIVERS THIS MORNING...SOME MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. THE HIGH TIDE DURING
LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY WILL BE OF ABOUT THE SAME MAGNITUDE...AND
WITH MUCH HIGHER FLOWS EXPECTED DUE TO THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER
THE COASTAL RIVER BASINS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT AT LEAST
SOME MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IMPACTS WILL BE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL TIDES PUSHING NEAR 11 FT WITH COASTAL RIVERS APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING BANKFULL. LOW LYING AREAS NEAR WILLAPA BAY...TILLAMOOK
BAY...DEPOE BAY...WALDPORT...AND FLORENCE...ALONG WITH STRETCHES
OF HIGHWAY 101 ALONG THE COAST...MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW DURING THE HIGH TIDE AROUND 11 AM SUNDAY. PEAK IMPACTS
ARE LIKELY BETWEEN ABOUT 9 AM AND 3 PM. WITH RIVERS CONTINUING TO
RUN AT OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE...THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE ON MONDAY MAY
AGAIN CAUSE SOME MINOR ISSUES.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...AS WE GET INTO LATER
SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY SITTING WELL TO OUR NORTH
OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COAST WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WORK IT/S WAY SOUTHWARD INTO OUR CWA. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...THE STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND PRECIPITATION
TAPER OFF CONSIDERABLY. THE CURRENT FCST MODEL TIMING HAS THE PRECIP
OVER S WASHINGTON TAPERING OFF SUN AFTERNOON...AND THE N OREGON
CASCADES AND COAST RANGE DROPPING OFF SUN EVENING. THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL OR
CASCADES AND COAST RANGE TOMORROW. EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONTS ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION DOWN TO NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES LATE
SUNDAY OR EARLY MON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMPLETELY ENDS.

CONDITIONS LOOK DRIER FOR MON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
PAC NW. THE 12Z ECMWF IS INDICATING THAT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
SOUTH MAY TRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT ON MON...SO DID
NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. BUT THE NAM AND GFS ARE COMPLETELY
DRY...SO STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON FOR MUCH OF TUE.
HOWEVER...FCST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BETTER THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
LIGHT RAIN ON TUE NIGHT OR WED AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
MOVES THROUGH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PYLE

&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FLATTENING AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT OVERALL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SAG SOUTH AND MOVE INLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER BATCH OF COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS...WITH SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING TO NEAR 2000 FT SO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CASCADE PASSES
RIGHT IN TIME FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL. AGAIN...HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED
OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
LINGERING MOISTURE CONTINUES INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MOST PART.
COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAS BEEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR RAIN AND SNOW ON
THE MOUNTAINS.
/27
&&

.HYDROLOGY...NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS ALREADY IN EFFECT...INCLUDING
MAJOR FLOODS FOR THE MARYS AND CLACKAMAS RIVERS. FLOODING ALONG THE
MAINSTEM WILLAMETTE LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE IS SPOTS
INLAND AS THE AIR MASS BECOME MORE MIXED. RADAR SHOWS RAIN
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA WITH A SOME RAIN SHADOWING OVER
THE VALLEY. THERE SHOULD BE A VFR WITH MVFR MIXED IN INLAND
THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH PERHAPS LESS MVFR SUN AFTERNOON. COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD BE PRIMARLY LIFR TO IFR THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR. EXPECT MOUNTAINS TO REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH
SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LIKELY TO SEE A MIX OF MVFR AND LOW VFR
THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRIMARLY VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON. /27

&&

.MARINE...WINDS REMAIN GUSTY BUT PRIMARLY IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVIOSORY CATEGORY SO HAVE ENDED THE GALES. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WITH BE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER TONIGHT SO THERE MAY BE A FEW
GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH DAY SUN...WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND BECOMING MORE W AND THEN NW.
WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN AROUND MIDWEEK INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SEAS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING BUT WILL REMAIN AROUND 17 FT TONIGHT
THEN AROUND 15 FT SUN AFTERNOON. AT THIS LEVEL HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED. HOWEVER...SEAS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID TEENS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY
UNTIL FRIDAY. /26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
     OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH
     OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST
     MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
     UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY.

&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 210430
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND SHOULD EASE SOME
LATE SUNDAY IN TO MONDAY. THERE IS THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR RIVER
FLOODING FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODEL
OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND COAST RANGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RAINFALL CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING IN A STRONG AND MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN RECENT HOURS SUGGEST A SUBTLE SWITCH TO FOCUSING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE CASCADES...WHICH SEEMS TO LINE UP WITH MODEL
TRENDS REASONABLY WELL. ADDITIONALLY A COMPACT SHORTWAVE SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WA LATE THIS
EVENING...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL N OF THE COLUMBIA LATER
TONIGHT.

DESPITE LOWER FLOWS ON COASTAL RIVERS THIS MORNING...SOME MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. THE HIGH TIDE DURING
LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY WILL BE OF ABOUT THE SAME MAGNITUDE...AND
WITH MUCH HIGHER FLOWS EXPECTED DUE TO THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER
THE COASTAL RIVER BASINS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT AT LEAST
SOME MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IMPACTS WILL BE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL TIDES PUSHING NEAR 11 FT WITH COASTAL RIVERS APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING BANKFULL. LOW LYING AREAS NEAR WILLAPA BAY...TILLAMOOK
BAY...DEPOE BAY...WALDPORT...AND FLORENCE...ALONG WITH STRETCHES
OF HIGHWAY 101 ALONG THE COAST...MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW DURING THE HIGH TIDE AROUND 11 AM SUNDAY. PEAK IMPACTS
ARE LIKELY BETWEEN ABOUT 9 AM AND 3 PM. WITH RIVERS CONTINUING TO
RUN AT OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE...THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE ON MONDAY MAY
AGAIN CAUSE SOME MINOR ISSUES.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...AS WE GET INTO LATER
SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY SITTING WELL TO OUR NORTH
OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COAST WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WORK IT/S WAY SOUTHWARD INTO OUR CWA. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...THE STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND PRECIPITATION
TAPER OFF CONSIDERABLY. THE CURRENT FCST MODEL TIMING HAS THE PRECIP
OVER S WASHINGTON TAPERING OFF SUN AFTERNOON...AND THE N OREGON
CASCADES AND COAST RANGE DROPPING OFF SUN EVENING. THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL OR
CASCADES AND COAST RANGE TOMORROW. EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONTS ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION DOWN TO NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES LATE
SUNDAY OR EARLY MON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMPLETELY ENDS.

CONDITIONS LOOK DRIER FOR MON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
PAC NW. THE 12Z ECMWF IS INDICATING THAT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
SOUTH MAY TRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT ON MON...SO DID
NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. BUT THE NAM AND GFS ARE COMPLETELY
DRY...SO STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON FOR MUCH OF TUE.
HOWEVER...FCST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BETTER THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
LIGHT RAIN ON TUE NIGHT OR WED AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
MOVES THROUGH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PYLE

&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FLATTENING AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT OVERALL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SAG SOUTH AND MOVE INLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER BATCH OF COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS...WITH SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING TO NEAR 2000 FT SO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CASCADE PASSES
RIGHT IN TIME FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL. AGAIN...HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED
OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
LINGERING MOISTURE CONTINUES INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MOST PART.
COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAS BEEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR RAIN AND SNOW ON
THE MOUNTAINS.
/27
&&

.HYDROLOGY...NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS ALREADY IN EFFECT...INCLUDING
MAJOR FLOODS FOR THE MARYS AND CLACKAMAS RIVERS. FLOODING ALONG THE
MAINSTEM WILLAMETTE LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE IS SPOTS
INLAND AS THE AIR MASS BECOME MORE MIXED. RADAR SHOWS RAIN
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA WITH A SOME RAIN SHADOWING OVER
THE VALLEY. THERE SHOULD BE A VFR WITH MVFR MIXED IN INLAND
THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH PERHAPS LESS MVFR SUN AFTERNOON. COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD BE PRIMARLY LIFR TO IFR THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR. EXPECT MOUNTAINS TO REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH
SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LIKELY TO SEE A MIX OF MVFR AND LOW VFR
THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRIMARLY VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON. /27

&&

.MARINE...WINDS REMAIN GUSTY BUT PRIMARLY IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVIOSORY CATEGORY SO HAVE ENDED THE GALES. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WITH BE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER TONIGHT SO THERE MAY BE A FEW
GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH DAY SUN...WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND BECOMING MORE W AND THEN NW.
WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN AROUND MIDWEEK INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SEAS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING BUT WILL REMAIN AROUND 17 FT TONIGHT
THEN AROUND 15 FT SUN AFTERNOON. AT THIS LEVEL HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED. HOWEVER...SEAS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID TEENS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY
UNTIL FRIDAY. /26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
     OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH
     OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST
     MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
     UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY.

&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 210430
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND SHOULD EASE SOME
LATE SUNDAY IN TO MONDAY. THERE IS THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR RIVER
FLOODING FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODEL
OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND COAST RANGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RAINFALL CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING IN A STRONG AND MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN RECENT HOURS SUGGEST A SUBTLE SWITCH TO FOCUSING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE CASCADES...WHICH SEEMS TO LINE UP WITH MODEL
TRENDS REASONABLY WELL. ADDITIONALLY A COMPACT SHORTWAVE SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WA LATE THIS
EVENING...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL N OF THE COLUMBIA LATER
TONIGHT.

DESPITE LOWER FLOWS ON COASTAL RIVERS THIS MORNING...SOME MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. THE HIGH TIDE DURING
LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY WILL BE OF ABOUT THE SAME MAGNITUDE...AND
WITH MUCH HIGHER FLOWS EXPECTED DUE TO THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER
THE COASTAL RIVER BASINS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT AT LEAST
SOME MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IMPACTS WILL BE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL TIDES PUSHING NEAR 11 FT WITH COASTAL RIVERS APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING BANKFULL. LOW LYING AREAS NEAR WILLAPA BAY...TILLAMOOK
BAY...DEPOE BAY...WALDPORT...AND FLORENCE...ALONG WITH STRETCHES
OF HIGHWAY 101 ALONG THE COAST...MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW DURING THE HIGH TIDE AROUND 11 AM SUNDAY. PEAK IMPACTS
ARE LIKELY BETWEEN ABOUT 9 AM AND 3 PM. WITH RIVERS CONTINUING TO
RUN AT OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE...THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE ON MONDAY MAY
AGAIN CAUSE SOME MINOR ISSUES.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...AS WE GET INTO LATER
SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY SITTING WELL TO OUR NORTH
OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COAST WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WORK IT/S WAY SOUTHWARD INTO OUR CWA. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...THE STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND PRECIPITATION
TAPER OFF CONSIDERABLY. THE CURRENT FCST MODEL TIMING HAS THE PRECIP
OVER S WASHINGTON TAPERING OFF SUN AFTERNOON...AND THE N OREGON
CASCADES AND COAST RANGE DROPPING OFF SUN EVENING. THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL OR
CASCADES AND COAST RANGE TOMORROW. EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONTS ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION DOWN TO NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES LATE
SUNDAY OR EARLY MON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMPLETELY ENDS.

CONDITIONS LOOK DRIER FOR MON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
PAC NW. THE 12Z ECMWF IS INDICATING THAT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
SOUTH MAY TRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT ON MON...SO DID
NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. BUT THE NAM AND GFS ARE COMPLETELY
DRY...SO STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON FOR MUCH OF TUE.
HOWEVER...FCST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BETTER THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
LIGHT RAIN ON TUE NIGHT OR WED AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
MOVES THROUGH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PYLE

&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FLATTENING AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT OVERALL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SAG SOUTH AND MOVE INLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER BATCH OF COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS...WITH SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING TO NEAR 2000 FT SO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CASCADE PASSES
RIGHT IN TIME FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL. AGAIN...HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED
OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
LINGERING MOISTURE CONTINUES INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MOST PART.
COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAS BEEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR RAIN AND SNOW ON
THE MOUNTAINS.
/27
&&

.HYDROLOGY...NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS ALREADY IN EFFECT...INCLUDING
MAJOR FLOODS FOR THE MARYS AND CLACKAMAS RIVERS. FLOODING ALONG THE
MAINSTEM WILLAMETTE LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE IS SPOTS
INLAND AS THE AIR MASS BECOME MORE MIXED. RADAR SHOWS RAIN
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA WITH A SOME RAIN SHADOWING OVER
THE VALLEY. THERE SHOULD BE A VFR WITH MVFR MIXED IN INLAND
THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH PERHAPS LESS MVFR SUN AFTERNOON. COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD BE PRIMARLY LIFR TO IFR THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR. EXPECT MOUNTAINS TO REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH
SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LIKELY TO SEE A MIX OF MVFR AND LOW VFR
THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRIMARLY VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON. /27

&&

.MARINE...WINDS REMAIN GUSTY BUT PRIMARLY IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVIOSORY CATEGORY SO HAVE ENDED THE GALES. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WITH BE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER TONIGHT SO THERE MAY BE A FEW
GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH DAY SUN...WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND BECOMING MORE W AND THEN NW.
WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN AROUND MIDWEEK INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SEAS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING BUT WILL REMAIN AROUND 17 FT TONIGHT
THEN AROUND 15 FT SUN AFTERNOON. AT THIS LEVEL HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED. HOWEVER...SEAS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID TEENS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY
UNTIL FRIDAY. /26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
     OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH
     OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST
     MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
     UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY.

&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 210430
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND SHOULD EASE SOME
LATE SUNDAY IN TO MONDAY. THERE IS THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR RIVER
FLOODING FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODEL
OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND COAST RANGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RAINFALL CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING IN A STRONG AND MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN RECENT HOURS SUGGEST A SUBTLE SWITCH TO FOCUSING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE CASCADES...WHICH SEEMS TO LINE UP WITH MODEL
TRENDS REASONABLY WELL. ADDITIONALLY A COMPACT SHORTWAVE SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WA LATE THIS
EVENING...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL N OF THE COLUMBIA LATER
TONIGHT.

DESPITE LOWER FLOWS ON COASTAL RIVERS THIS MORNING...SOME MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. THE HIGH TIDE DURING
LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY WILL BE OF ABOUT THE SAME MAGNITUDE...AND
WITH MUCH HIGHER FLOWS EXPECTED DUE TO THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER
THE COASTAL RIVER BASINS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT AT LEAST
SOME MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IMPACTS WILL BE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL TIDES PUSHING NEAR 11 FT WITH COASTAL RIVERS APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING BANKFULL. LOW LYING AREAS NEAR WILLAPA BAY...TILLAMOOK
BAY...DEPOE BAY...WALDPORT...AND FLORENCE...ALONG WITH STRETCHES
OF HIGHWAY 101 ALONG THE COAST...MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW DURING THE HIGH TIDE AROUND 11 AM SUNDAY. PEAK IMPACTS
ARE LIKELY BETWEEN ABOUT 9 AM AND 3 PM. WITH RIVERS CONTINUING TO
RUN AT OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE...THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE ON MONDAY MAY
AGAIN CAUSE SOME MINOR ISSUES.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...AS WE GET INTO LATER
SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY SITTING WELL TO OUR NORTH
OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COAST WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WORK IT/S WAY SOUTHWARD INTO OUR CWA. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...THE STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND PRECIPITATION
TAPER OFF CONSIDERABLY. THE CURRENT FCST MODEL TIMING HAS THE PRECIP
OVER S WASHINGTON TAPERING OFF SUN AFTERNOON...AND THE N OREGON
CASCADES AND COAST RANGE DROPPING OFF SUN EVENING. THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL OR
CASCADES AND COAST RANGE TOMORROW. EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONTS ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION DOWN TO NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES LATE
SUNDAY OR EARLY MON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMPLETELY ENDS.

CONDITIONS LOOK DRIER FOR MON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
PAC NW. THE 12Z ECMWF IS INDICATING THAT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
SOUTH MAY TRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT ON MON...SO DID
NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. BUT THE NAM AND GFS ARE COMPLETELY
DRY...SO STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON FOR MUCH OF TUE.
HOWEVER...FCST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BETTER THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
LIGHT RAIN ON TUE NIGHT OR WED AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
MOVES THROUGH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PYLE

&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FLATTENING AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT OVERALL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SAG SOUTH AND MOVE INLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER BATCH OF COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS...WITH SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING TO NEAR 2000 FT SO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CASCADE PASSES
RIGHT IN TIME FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL. AGAIN...HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED
OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
LINGERING MOISTURE CONTINUES INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MOST PART.
COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAS BEEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR RAIN AND SNOW ON
THE MOUNTAINS.
/27
&&

.HYDROLOGY...NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS ALREADY IN EFFECT...INCLUDING
MAJOR FLOODS FOR THE MARYS AND CLACKAMAS RIVERS. FLOODING ALONG THE
MAINSTEM WILLAMETTE LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE IS SPOTS
INLAND AS THE AIR MASS BECOME MORE MIXED. RADAR SHOWS RAIN
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA WITH A SOME RAIN SHADOWING OVER
THE VALLEY. THERE SHOULD BE A VFR WITH MVFR MIXED IN INLAND
THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH PERHAPS LESS MVFR SUN AFTERNOON. COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD BE PRIMARLY LIFR TO IFR THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR. EXPECT MOUNTAINS TO REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH
SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LIKELY TO SEE A MIX OF MVFR AND LOW VFR
THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRIMARLY VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON. /27

&&

.MARINE...WINDS REMAIN GUSTY BUT PRIMARLY IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVIOSORY CATEGORY SO HAVE ENDED THE GALES. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WITH BE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER TONIGHT SO THERE MAY BE A FEW
GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH DAY SUN...WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND BECOMING MORE W AND THEN NW.
WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN AROUND MIDWEEK INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SEAS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING BUT WILL REMAIN AROUND 17 FT TONIGHT
THEN AROUND 15 FT SUN AFTERNOON. AT THIS LEVEL HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED. HOWEVER...SEAS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID TEENS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY
UNTIL FRIDAY. /26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
     OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH
     OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST
     MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
     UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY.

&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 210430
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND SHOULD EASE SOME
LATE SUNDAY IN TO MONDAY. THERE IS THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR RIVER
FLOODING FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODEL
OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND COAST RANGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RAINFALL CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING IN A STRONG AND MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN RECENT HOURS SUGGEST A SUBTLE SWITCH TO FOCUSING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE CASCADES...WHICH SEEMS TO LINE UP WITH MODEL
TRENDS REASONABLY WELL. ADDITIONALLY A COMPACT SHORTWAVE SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WA LATE THIS
EVENING...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL N OF THE COLUMBIA LATER
TONIGHT.

DESPITE LOWER FLOWS ON COASTAL RIVERS THIS MORNING...SOME MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. THE HIGH TIDE DURING
LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY WILL BE OF ABOUT THE SAME MAGNITUDE...AND
WITH MUCH HIGHER FLOWS EXPECTED DUE TO THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER
THE COASTAL RIVER BASINS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT AT LEAST
SOME MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IMPACTS WILL BE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL TIDES PUSHING NEAR 11 FT WITH COASTAL RIVERS APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING BANKFULL. LOW LYING AREAS NEAR WILLAPA BAY...TILLAMOOK
BAY...DEPOE BAY...WALDPORT...AND FLORENCE...ALONG WITH STRETCHES
OF HIGHWAY 101 ALONG THE COAST...MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW DURING THE HIGH TIDE AROUND 11 AM SUNDAY. PEAK IMPACTS
ARE LIKELY BETWEEN ABOUT 9 AM AND 3 PM. WITH RIVERS CONTINUING TO
RUN AT OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE...THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE ON MONDAY MAY
AGAIN CAUSE SOME MINOR ISSUES.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...AS WE GET INTO LATER
SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY SITTING WELL TO OUR NORTH
OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COAST WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WORK IT/S WAY SOUTHWARD INTO OUR CWA. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...THE STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND PRECIPITATION
TAPER OFF CONSIDERABLY. THE CURRENT FCST MODEL TIMING HAS THE PRECIP
OVER S WASHINGTON TAPERING OFF SUN AFTERNOON...AND THE N OREGON
CASCADES AND COAST RANGE DROPPING OFF SUN EVENING. THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL OR
CASCADES AND COAST RANGE TOMORROW. EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONTS ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION DOWN TO NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES LATE
SUNDAY OR EARLY MON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMPLETELY ENDS.

CONDITIONS LOOK DRIER FOR MON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
PAC NW. THE 12Z ECMWF IS INDICATING THAT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
SOUTH MAY TRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT ON MON...SO DID
NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. BUT THE NAM AND GFS ARE COMPLETELY
DRY...SO STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON FOR MUCH OF TUE.
HOWEVER...FCST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BETTER THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
LIGHT RAIN ON TUE NIGHT OR WED AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
MOVES THROUGH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PYLE

&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FLATTENING AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT OVERALL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SAG SOUTH AND MOVE INLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER BATCH OF COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS...WITH SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING TO NEAR 2000 FT SO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CASCADE PASSES
RIGHT IN TIME FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL. AGAIN...HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED
OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
LINGERING MOISTURE CONTINUES INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MOST PART.
COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAS BEEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR RAIN AND SNOW ON
THE MOUNTAINS.
/27
&&

.HYDROLOGY...NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS ALREADY IN EFFECT...INCLUDING
MAJOR FLOODS FOR THE MARYS AND CLACKAMAS RIVERS. FLOODING ALONG THE
MAINSTEM WILLAMETTE LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE IS SPOTS
INLAND AS THE AIR MASS BECOME MORE MIXED. RADAR SHOWS RAIN
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA WITH A SOME RAIN SHADOWING OVER
THE VALLEY. THERE SHOULD BE A VFR WITH MVFR MIXED IN INLAND
THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH PERHAPS LESS MVFR SUN AFTERNOON. COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD BE PRIMARLY LIFR TO IFR THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR. EXPECT MOUNTAINS TO REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH
SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LIKELY TO SEE A MIX OF MVFR AND LOW VFR
THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRIMARLY VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON. /27

&&

.MARINE...WINDS REMAIN GUSTY BUT PRIMARLY IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVIOSORY CATEGORY SO HAVE ENDED THE GALES. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WITH BE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER TONIGHT SO THERE MAY BE A FEW
GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH DAY SUN...WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND BECOMING MORE W AND THEN NW.
WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN AROUND MIDWEEK INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SEAS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING BUT WILL REMAIN AROUND 17 FT TONIGHT
THEN AROUND 15 FT SUN AFTERNOON. AT THIS LEVEL HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED. HOWEVER...SEAS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID TEENS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY
UNTIL FRIDAY. /26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
     OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH
     OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST
     MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
     UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY.

&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 210430
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND SHOULD EASE SOME
LATE SUNDAY IN TO MONDAY. THERE IS THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR RIVER
FLOODING FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODEL
OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND COAST RANGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RAINFALL CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING IN A STRONG AND MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN RECENT HOURS SUGGEST A SUBTLE SWITCH TO FOCUSING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE CASCADES...WHICH SEEMS TO LINE UP WITH MODEL
TRENDS REASONABLY WELL. ADDITIONALLY A COMPACT SHORTWAVE SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WA LATE THIS
EVENING...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL N OF THE COLUMBIA LATER
TONIGHT.

DESPITE LOWER FLOWS ON COASTAL RIVERS THIS MORNING...SOME MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. THE HIGH TIDE DURING
LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY WILL BE OF ABOUT THE SAME MAGNITUDE...AND
WITH MUCH HIGHER FLOWS EXPECTED DUE TO THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER
THE COASTAL RIVER BASINS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT AT LEAST
SOME MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IMPACTS WILL BE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL TIDES PUSHING NEAR 11 FT WITH COASTAL RIVERS APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING BANKFULL. LOW LYING AREAS NEAR WILLAPA BAY...TILLAMOOK
BAY...DEPOE BAY...WALDPORT...AND FLORENCE...ALONG WITH STRETCHES
OF HIGHWAY 101 ALONG THE COAST...MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW DURING THE HIGH TIDE AROUND 11 AM SUNDAY. PEAK IMPACTS
ARE LIKELY BETWEEN ABOUT 9 AM AND 3 PM. WITH RIVERS CONTINUING TO
RUN AT OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE...THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE ON MONDAY MAY
AGAIN CAUSE SOME MINOR ISSUES.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...AS WE GET INTO LATER
SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY SITTING WELL TO OUR NORTH
OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COAST WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WORK IT/S WAY SOUTHWARD INTO OUR CWA. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...THE STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND PRECIPITATION
TAPER OFF CONSIDERABLY. THE CURRENT FCST MODEL TIMING HAS THE PRECIP
OVER S WASHINGTON TAPERING OFF SUN AFTERNOON...AND THE N OREGON
CASCADES AND COAST RANGE DROPPING OFF SUN EVENING. THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL OR
CASCADES AND COAST RANGE TOMORROW. EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONTS ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION DOWN TO NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES LATE
SUNDAY OR EARLY MON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMPLETELY ENDS.

CONDITIONS LOOK DRIER FOR MON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
PAC NW. THE 12Z ECMWF IS INDICATING THAT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
SOUTH MAY TRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT ON MON...SO DID
NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. BUT THE NAM AND GFS ARE COMPLETELY
DRY...SO STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON FOR MUCH OF TUE.
HOWEVER...FCST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BETTER THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
LIGHT RAIN ON TUE NIGHT OR WED AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
MOVES THROUGH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PYLE

&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FLATTENING AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT OVERALL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SAG SOUTH AND MOVE INLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER BATCH OF COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS...WITH SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING TO NEAR 2000 FT SO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CASCADE PASSES
RIGHT IN TIME FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL. AGAIN...HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED
OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
LINGERING MOISTURE CONTINUES INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MOST PART.
COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAS BEEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR RAIN AND SNOW ON
THE MOUNTAINS.
/27
&&

.HYDROLOGY...NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS ALREADY IN EFFECT...INCLUDING
MAJOR FLOODS FOR THE MARYS AND CLACKAMAS RIVERS. FLOODING ALONG THE
MAINSTEM WILLAMETTE LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE IS SPOTS
INLAND AS THE AIR MASS BECOME MORE MIXED. RADAR SHOWS RAIN
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA WITH A SOME RAIN SHADOWING OVER
THE VALLEY. THERE SHOULD BE A VFR WITH MVFR MIXED IN INLAND
THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH PERHAPS LESS MVFR SUN AFTERNOON. COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD BE PRIMARLY LIFR TO IFR THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR. EXPECT MOUNTAINS TO REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH
SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LIKELY TO SEE A MIX OF MVFR AND LOW VFR
THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRIMARLY VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON. /27

&&

.MARINE...WINDS REMAIN GUSTY BUT PRIMARLY IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVIOSORY CATEGORY SO HAVE ENDED THE GALES. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WITH BE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER TONIGHT SO THERE MAY BE A FEW
GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH DAY SUN...WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND BECOMING MORE W AND THEN NW.
WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN AROUND MIDWEEK INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SEAS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING BUT WILL REMAIN AROUND 17 FT TONIGHT
THEN AROUND 15 FT SUN AFTERNOON. AT THIS LEVEL HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED. HOWEVER...SEAS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID TEENS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY
UNTIL FRIDAY. /26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
     OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH
     OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST
     MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
     UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY.

&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 210430
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND SHOULD EASE SOME
LATE SUNDAY IN TO MONDAY. THERE IS THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR RIVER
FLOODING FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODEL
OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND COAST RANGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RAINFALL CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING IN A STRONG AND MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN RECENT HOURS SUGGEST A SUBTLE SWITCH TO FOCUSING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE CASCADES...WHICH SEEMS TO LINE UP WITH MODEL
TRENDS REASONABLY WELL. ADDITIONALLY A COMPACT SHORTWAVE SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WA LATE THIS
EVENING...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL N OF THE COLUMBIA LATER
TONIGHT.

DESPITE LOWER FLOWS ON COASTAL RIVERS THIS MORNING...SOME MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. THE HIGH TIDE DURING
LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY WILL BE OF ABOUT THE SAME MAGNITUDE...AND
WITH MUCH HIGHER FLOWS EXPECTED DUE TO THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER
THE COASTAL RIVER BASINS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT AT LEAST
SOME MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IMPACTS WILL BE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL TIDES PUSHING NEAR 11 FT WITH COASTAL RIVERS APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING BANKFULL. LOW LYING AREAS NEAR WILLAPA BAY...TILLAMOOK
BAY...DEPOE BAY...WALDPORT...AND FLORENCE...ALONG WITH STRETCHES
OF HIGHWAY 101 ALONG THE COAST...MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW DURING THE HIGH TIDE AROUND 11 AM SUNDAY. PEAK IMPACTS
ARE LIKELY BETWEEN ABOUT 9 AM AND 3 PM. WITH RIVERS CONTINUING TO
RUN AT OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE...THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE ON MONDAY MAY
AGAIN CAUSE SOME MINOR ISSUES.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...AS WE GET INTO LATER
SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY SITTING WELL TO OUR NORTH
OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COAST WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WORK IT/S WAY SOUTHWARD INTO OUR CWA. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...THE STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND PRECIPITATION
TAPER OFF CONSIDERABLY. THE CURRENT FCST MODEL TIMING HAS THE PRECIP
OVER S WASHINGTON TAPERING OFF SUN AFTERNOON...AND THE N OREGON
CASCADES AND COAST RANGE DROPPING OFF SUN EVENING. THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL OR
CASCADES AND COAST RANGE TOMORROW. EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONTS ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION DOWN TO NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES LATE
SUNDAY OR EARLY MON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMPLETELY ENDS.

CONDITIONS LOOK DRIER FOR MON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
PAC NW. THE 12Z ECMWF IS INDICATING THAT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
SOUTH MAY TRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT ON MON...SO DID
NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. BUT THE NAM AND GFS ARE COMPLETELY
DRY...SO STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON FOR MUCH OF TUE.
HOWEVER...FCST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BETTER THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
LIGHT RAIN ON TUE NIGHT OR WED AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
MOVES THROUGH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PYLE

&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FLATTENING AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT OVERALL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SAG SOUTH AND MOVE INLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER BATCH OF COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS...WITH SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING TO NEAR 2000 FT SO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CASCADE PASSES
RIGHT IN TIME FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL. AGAIN...HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED
OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
LINGERING MOISTURE CONTINUES INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MOST PART.
COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAS BEEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR RAIN AND SNOW ON
THE MOUNTAINS.
/27
&&

.HYDROLOGY...NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS ALREADY IN EFFECT...INCLUDING
MAJOR FLOODS FOR THE MARYS AND CLACKAMAS RIVERS. FLOODING ALONG THE
MAINSTEM WILLAMETTE LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE IS SPOTS
INLAND AS THE AIR MASS BECOME MORE MIXED. RADAR SHOWS RAIN
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA WITH A SOME RAIN SHADOWING OVER
THE VALLEY. THERE SHOULD BE A VFR WITH MVFR MIXED IN INLAND
THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH PERHAPS LESS MVFR SUN AFTERNOON. COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD BE PRIMARLY LIFR TO IFR THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR. EXPECT MOUNTAINS TO REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH
SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LIKELY TO SEE A MIX OF MVFR AND LOW VFR
THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRIMARLY VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON. /27

&&

.MARINE...WINDS REMAIN GUSTY BUT PRIMARLY IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVIOSORY CATEGORY SO HAVE ENDED THE GALES. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WITH BE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER TONIGHT SO THERE MAY BE A FEW
GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH DAY SUN...WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND BECOMING MORE W AND THEN NW.
WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN AROUND MIDWEEK INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SEAS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING BUT WILL REMAIN AROUND 17 FT TONIGHT
THEN AROUND 15 FT SUN AFTERNOON. AT THIS LEVEL HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED. HOWEVER...SEAS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID TEENS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY
UNTIL FRIDAY. /26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
     OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH
     OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST
     MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
     UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY.

&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 210430
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND SHOULD EASE SOME
LATE SUNDAY IN TO MONDAY. THERE IS THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR RIVER
FLOODING FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODEL
OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND COAST RANGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RAINFALL CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING IN A STRONG AND MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN RECENT HOURS SUGGEST A SUBTLE SWITCH TO FOCUSING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE CASCADES...WHICH SEEMS TO LINE UP WITH MODEL
TRENDS REASONABLY WELL. ADDITIONALLY A COMPACT SHORTWAVE SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WA LATE THIS
EVENING...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL N OF THE COLUMBIA LATER
TONIGHT.

DESPITE LOWER FLOWS ON COASTAL RIVERS THIS MORNING...SOME MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. THE HIGH TIDE DURING
LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY WILL BE OF ABOUT THE SAME MAGNITUDE...AND
WITH MUCH HIGHER FLOWS EXPECTED DUE TO THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER
THE COASTAL RIVER BASINS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT AT LEAST
SOME MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IMPACTS WILL BE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL TIDES PUSHING NEAR 11 FT WITH COASTAL RIVERS APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING BANKFULL. LOW LYING AREAS NEAR WILLAPA BAY...TILLAMOOK
BAY...DEPOE BAY...WALDPORT...AND FLORENCE...ALONG WITH STRETCHES
OF HIGHWAY 101 ALONG THE COAST...MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW DURING THE HIGH TIDE AROUND 11 AM SUNDAY. PEAK IMPACTS
ARE LIKELY BETWEEN ABOUT 9 AM AND 3 PM. WITH RIVERS CONTINUING TO
RUN AT OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE...THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE ON MONDAY MAY
AGAIN CAUSE SOME MINOR ISSUES.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...AS WE GET INTO LATER
SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY SITTING WELL TO OUR NORTH
OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COAST WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WORK IT/S WAY SOUTHWARD INTO OUR CWA. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...THE STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND PRECIPITATION
TAPER OFF CONSIDERABLY. THE CURRENT FCST MODEL TIMING HAS THE PRECIP
OVER S WASHINGTON TAPERING OFF SUN AFTERNOON...AND THE N OREGON
CASCADES AND COAST RANGE DROPPING OFF SUN EVENING. THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL OR
CASCADES AND COAST RANGE TOMORROW. EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONTS ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION DOWN TO NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES LATE
SUNDAY OR EARLY MON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMPLETELY ENDS.

CONDITIONS LOOK DRIER FOR MON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
PAC NW. THE 12Z ECMWF IS INDICATING THAT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
SOUTH MAY TRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT ON MON...SO DID
NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. BUT THE NAM AND GFS ARE COMPLETELY
DRY...SO STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON FOR MUCH OF TUE.
HOWEVER...FCST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BETTER THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
LIGHT RAIN ON TUE NIGHT OR WED AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
MOVES THROUGH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PYLE

&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FLATTENING AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT OVERALL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SAG SOUTH AND MOVE INLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER BATCH OF COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS...WITH SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING TO NEAR 2000 FT SO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CASCADE PASSES
RIGHT IN TIME FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL. AGAIN...HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED
OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
LINGERING MOISTURE CONTINUES INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MOST PART.
COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAS BEEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR RAIN AND SNOW ON
THE MOUNTAINS.
/27
&&

.HYDROLOGY...NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS ALREADY IN EFFECT...INCLUDING
MAJOR FLOODS FOR THE MARYS AND CLACKAMAS RIVERS. FLOODING ALONG THE
MAINSTEM WILLAMETTE LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE IS SPOTS
INLAND AS THE AIR MASS BECOME MORE MIXED. RADAR SHOWS RAIN
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA WITH A SOME RAIN SHADOWING OVER
THE VALLEY. THERE SHOULD BE A VFR WITH MVFR MIXED IN INLAND
THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH PERHAPS LESS MVFR SUN AFTERNOON. COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD BE PRIMARLY LIFR TO IFR THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR. EXPECT MOUNTAINS TO REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH
SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LIKELY TO SEE A MIX OF MVFR AND LOW VFR
THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRIMARLY VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON. /27

&&

.MARINE...WINDS REMAIN GUSTY BUT PRIMARLY IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVIOSORY CATEGORY SO HAVE ENDED THE GALES. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WITH BE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER TONIGHT SO THERE MAY BE A FEW
GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH DAY SUN...WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND BECOMING MORE W AND THEN NW.
WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN AROUND MIDWEEK INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SEAS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING BUT WILL REMAIN AROUND 17 FT TONIGHT
THEN AROUND 15 FT SUN AFTERNOON. AT THIS LEVEL HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED. HOWEVER...SEAS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID TEENS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY
UNTIL FRIDAY. /26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
     OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH
     OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST
     MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
     UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY.

&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 210424
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
822 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH SATELLITE SHOWING GOOD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. EXPECT THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE CASCADES AND BLUES. MODELS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE A DECREASING TREND IN THE RAINFALL LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FOCUS THE BEST RAINFALL OVER THE CASCADES AND BLUES THROUGH EVENING.
WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MODELS SHOW
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN WINDS FOR ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT. PEAK WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE MIDNIGHT TO 10AM SUNDAY MORNING. SALEM 00Z SOUNDING
SHOWING 50KT AT 5000 FEET. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH MODEL
FORECASTS. BASED ON THIS EXPECT TO SEE LOCAL GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH.
MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH ARE LIKELY.  94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 243 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG AND WET
PACIFIC STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH AREAWIDE
THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY ACROSS THE
REGION. SNOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE TODAY, REMAINING BETWEEN
4300 TO 5000 FEET MSL OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTIONS HAVE
BEEN OVER WALLOWA COUNTY WHERE THE SNOW LEVELS ARE NOW NEAR 4000
FEET, AND OVER KITTITAS COUNTY WHERE THEY REMAIN BETWEEN 2100 AND
2500 FEET. WITH THE SNOW LEVELS LINGERING BELOW 3000 FEET OVER
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY INTO THE EVENING, HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM. SNOW LEVELS AREAWIDE SHOULD RISE THIS
EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS HAVE NOT
INCREASED AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED DUE TO THE PRECIP AND THE SLOW
ARRIVAL OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL CONTINUE ALL CURRENT WIND HIGHLIGHTS
THOUGH, AS STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. THE
FLOW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT TO BEING MORE WESTERLY. THIS
FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. AREAS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, AND THOSE PRONE
TO UPSLOPE AFFECTS, WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH CHANCES OF PRECIP LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE PRECIP CHANCES IN AREAS, SUCH AS
THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, WILL SEE LOWER PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE AFFECTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN AROUND 5000 FEET OR HIGHER
SUNDAY, THUS SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE, WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WIND DOWN OF THE PRECIP. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ON MONDAY WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. ON WEDNESDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS WASHINGTON INTO OREGON WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH. HAVE INCREASED SNOW LEVELS
SLIGHTLY WITH RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 93

CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN AS
THE CHRISTMAS EVE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE LOWLAND AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW EXITS THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES...AND INTO
THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY DRY
OUT ACROSS ALL AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS GREAT DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS
AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AND HOW COLD IT WILL GET.
THE LATEST GFS MODEL IS EXTREMELY AGGRESSIVE WITH A COLD ARCTIC
INTRUSION...HOWEVER THE COLDEST AIR WOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS MOVING IN
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO EXIT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HAVE HEDGED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF BUT DECIDED TO UNDERCUT
POP ACROSS THE BASIN...KEEPING THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MOSTLY DRY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW ELSEWHERE. WEBER

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY MFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND
BR. WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. WINDS COULD REACH
20-30KT WITH GUSTS TO 45KT FROM THE WSW AT KPDT, KALW, KRDM, AND
KBDN AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE RAIN SHADOWED WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. 93

HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE OREGON CASCADES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 8000 FEET. THIS WILL PUSH
STREAMS AND RIVERS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF OREGON CASCADES TO
BANKFULL WITH FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER DESCHUTES. THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO GET HEAVY RAIN WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE LARGE RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FLOOD,
BUT SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE MINOR FLOODING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, COOLER AIR AND LESS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SEEN OVERNIGHT AND IT APPEARS MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER
SOUTH WITH NEWER FORECASTS COMING IN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE
NACHES RIVER. FLOOD WATCHES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AREAS COME IN FOCUS. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  58  38  48 /  90  50  40  10
ALW  49  58  40  49 /  90  50  50  10
PSC  46  58  37  49 /  80  30  10  10
YKM  39  54  35  45 /  80  40  20  10
HRI  48  59  37  52 /  80  40  20  10
ELN  39  49  34  43 / 100  40  20  10
RDM  45  57  35  47 /  80  70  20  10
LGD  44  53  37  46 / 100 100  80  20
GCD  43  46  36  47 / 100  80  60  20
DLS  43  56  39  51 / 100  80  30  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ORZ041-509>511.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ORZ049-050-502-503-505>508.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ044.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SUNDAY ORZ509.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ510-511.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ507.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ508.

WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WAZ024-026-027-520-521.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WAZ029-030.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ028.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ521.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ029.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ027.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR WESTERN
     KITTITAS COUNTY IN THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/







000
FXUS66 KPDT 210424
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
822 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH SATELLITE SHOWING GOOD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. EXPECT THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE CASCADES AND BLUES. MODELS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE A DECREASING TREND IN THE RAINFALL LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FOCUS THE BEST RAINFALL OVER THE CASCADES AND BLUES THROUGH EVENING.
WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MODELS SHOW
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN WINDS FOR ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT. PEAK WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE MIDNIGHT TO 10AM SUNDAY MORNING. SALEM 00Z SOUNDING
SHOWING 50KT AT 5000 FEET. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH MODEL
FORECASTS. BASED ON THIS EXPECT TO SEE LOCAL GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH.
MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH ARE LIKELY.  94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 243 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG AND WET
PACIFIC STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH AREAWIDE
THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY ACROSS THE
REGION. SNOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE TODAY, REMAINING BETWEEN
4300 TO 5000 FEET MSL OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTIONS HAVE
BEEN OVER WALLOWA COUNTY WHERE THE SNOW LEVELS ARE NOW NEAR 4000
FEET, AND OVER KITTITAS COUNTY WHERE THEY REMAIN BETWEEN 2100 AND
2500 FEET. WITH THE SNOW LEVELS LINGERING BELOW 3000 FEET OVER
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY INTO THE EVENING, HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM. SNOW LEVELS AREAWIDE SHOULD RISE THIS
EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS HAVE NOT
INCREASED AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED DUE TO THE PRECIP AND THE SLOW
ARRIVAL OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL CONTINUE ALL CURRENT WIND HIGHLIGHTS
THOUGH, AS STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. THE
FLOW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT TO BEING MORE WESTERLY. THIS
FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. AREAS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, AND THOSE PRONE
TO UPSLOPE AFFECTS, WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH CHANCES OF PRECIP LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE PRECIP CHANCES IN AREAS, SUCH AS
THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, WILL SEE LOWER PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE AFFECTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN AROUND 5000 FEET OR HIGHER
SUNDAY, THUS SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE, WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WIND DOWN OF THE PRECIP. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ON MONDAY WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. ON WEDNESDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS WASHINGTON INTO OREGON WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH. HAVE INCREASED SNOW LEVELS
SLIGHTLY WITH RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 93

CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN AS
THE CHRISTMAS EVE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE LOWLAND AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW EXITS THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES...AND INTO
THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY DRY
OUT ACROSS ALL AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS GREAT DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS
AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AND HOW COLD IT WILL GET.
THE LATEST GFS MODEL IS EXTREMELY AGGRESSIVE WITH A COLD ARCTIC
INTRUSION...HOWEVER THE COLDEST AIR WOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS MOVING IN
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO EXIT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HAVE HEDGED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF BUT DECIDED TO UNDERCUT
POP ACROSS THE BASIN...KEEPING THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MOSTLY DRY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW ELSEWHERE. WEBER

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY MFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND
BR. WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. WINDS COULD REACH
20-30KT WITH GUSTS TO 45KT FROM THE WSW AT KPDT, KALW, KRDM, AND
KBDN AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE RAIN SHADOWED WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. 93

HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE OREGON CASCADES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 8000 FEET. THIS WILL PUSH
STREAMS AND RIVERS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF OREGON CASCADES TO
BANKFULL WITH FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER DESCHUTES. THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO GET HEAVY RAIN WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE LARGE RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FLOOD,
BUT SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE MINOR FLOODING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, COOLER AIR AND LESS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SEEN OVERNIGHT AND IT APPEARS MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER
SOUTH WITH NEWER FORECASTS COMING IN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE
NACHES RIVER. FLOOD WATCHES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AREAS COME IN FOCUS. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  58  38  48 /  90  50  40  10
ALW  49  58  40  49 /  90  50  50  10
PSC  46  58  37  49 /  80  30  10  10
YKM  39  54  35  45 /  80  40  20  10
HRI  48  59  37  52 /  80  40  20  10
ELN  39  49  34  43 / 100  40  20  10
RDM  45  57  35  47 /  80  70  20  10
LGD  44  53  37  46 / 100 100  80  20
GCD  43  46  36  47 / 100  80  60  20
DLS  43  56  39  51 / 100  80  30  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ORZ041-509>511.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ORZ049-050-502-503-505>508.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ044.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SUNDAY ORZ509.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ510-511.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ507.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ508.

WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WAZ024-026-027-520-521.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WAZ029-030.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ028.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ521.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ029.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ027.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR WESTERN
     KITTITAS COUNTY IN THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/







000
FXUS66 KPDT 210424
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
822 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH SATELLITE SHOWING GOOD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. EXPECT THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE CASCADES AND BLUES. MODELS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE A DECREASING TREND IN THE RAINFALL LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FOCUS THE BEST RAINFALL OVER THE CASCADES AND BLUES THROUGH EVENING.
WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MODELS SHOW
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN WINDS FOR ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT. PEAK WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE MIDNIGHT TO 10AM SUNDAY MORNING. SALEM 00Z SOUNDING
SHOWING 50KT AT 5000 FEET. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH MODEL
FORECASTS. BASED ON THIS EXPECT TO SEE LOCAL GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH.
MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH ARE LIKELY.  94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 243 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG AND WET
PACIFIC STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH AREAWIDE
THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY ACROSS THE
REGION. SNOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE TODAY, REMAINING BETWEEN
4300 TO 5000 FEET MSL OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTIONS HAVE
BEEN OVER WALLOWA COUNTY WHERE THE SNOW LEVELS ARE NOW NEAR 4000
FEET, AND OVER KITTITAS COUNTY WHERE THEY REMAIN BETWEEN 2100 AND
2500 FEET. WITH THE SNOW LEVELS LINGERING BELOW 3000 FEET OVER
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY INTO THE EVENING, HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM. SNOW LEVELS AREAWIDE SHOULD RISE THIS
EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS HAVE NOT
INCREASED AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED DUE TO THE PRECIP AND THE SLOW
ARRIVAL OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL CONTINUE ALL CURRENT WIND HIGHLIGHTS
THOUGH, AS STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. THE
FLOW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT TO BEING MORE WESTERLY. THIS
FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. AREAS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, AND THOSE PRONE
TO UPSLOPE AFFECTS, WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH CHANCES OF PRECIP LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE PRECIP CHANCES IN AREAS, SUCH AS
THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, WILL SEE LOWER PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE AFFECTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN AROUND 5000 FEET OR HIGHER
SUNDAY, THUS SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE, WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WIND DOWN OF THE PRECIP. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ON MONDAY WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. ON WEDNESDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS WASHINGTON INTO OREGON WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH. HAVE INCREASED SNOW LEVELS
SLIGHTLY WITH RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 93

CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN AS
THE CHRISTMAS EVE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE LOWLAND AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW EXITS THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES...AND INTO
THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY DRY
OUT ACROSS ALL AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS GREAT DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS
AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AND HOW COLD IT WILL GET.
THE LATEST GFS MODEL IS EXTREMELY AGGRESSIVE WITH A COLD ARCTIC
INTRUSION...HOWEVER THE COLDEST AIR WOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS MOVING IN
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO EXIT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HAVE HEDGED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF BUT DECIDED TO UNDERCUT
POP ACROSS THE BASIN...KEEPING THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MOSTLY DRY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW ELSEWHERE. WEBER

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY MFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND
BR. WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. WINDS COULD REACH
20-30KT WITH GUSTS TO 45KT FROM THE WSW AT KPDT, KALW, KRDM, AND
KBDN AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE RAIN SHADOWED WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. 93

HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE OREGON CASCADES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 8000 FEET. THIS WILL PUSH
STREAMS AND RIVERS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF OREGON CASCADES TO
BANKFULL WITH FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER DESCHUTES. THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO GET HEAVY RAIN WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE LARGE RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FLOOD,
BUT SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE MINOR FLOODING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, COOLER AIR AND LESS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SEEN OVERNIGHT AND IT APPEARS MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER
SOUTH WITH NEWER FORECASTS COMING IN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE
NACHES RIVER. FLOOD WATCHES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AREAS COME IN FOCUS. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  58  38  48 /  90  50  40  10
ALW  49  58  40  49 /  90  50  50  10
PSC  46  58  37  49 /  80  30  10  10
YKM  39  54  35  45 /  80  40  20  10
HRI  48  59  37  52 /  80  40  20  10
ELN  39  49  34  43 / 100  40  20  10
RDM  45  57  35  47 /  80  70  20  10
LGD  44  53  37  46 / 100 100  80  20
GCD  43  46  36  47 / 100  80  60  20
DLS  43  56  39  51 / 100  80  30  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ORZ041-509>511.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ORZ049-050-502-503-505>508.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ044.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SUNDAY ORZ509.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ510-511.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ507.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ508.

WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WAZ024-026-027-520-521.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WAZ029-030.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ028.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ521.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ029.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ027.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR WESTERN
     KITTITAS COUNTY IN THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/







  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 210400
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
900 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...STRONG MOIST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC CONTINUES TO HELP
PRODUCE LARGE PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE AREA. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOST OF
TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW OUR FORECAST
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AS THE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWER TO BRING
WARM TEMPS THAN EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE
NIGHT...CLOSE TO THE FORECAST...SO IT WILL NOT BE UPDATED AT THIS
TIME. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST-
CENTRAL MTNS UNTIL 11 PM MST. IS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BE
SLOW TO PROGRESS...WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY A FEW MORE
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND SCATTERED IFR
WITH SNOW. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000 FT THIS
EVENING RISING TO 9000 FT IN SE OREGON AND 6500 FT IN CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO SW 10-20
KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN SE OREGON AND SOUTHERN
IDAHO TO WESTERLY 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NORTHWEST 50-70 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING HEAVY PCPN AND RISING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.  VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAINS SNOW WILL
BECOME ALL RAIN LATE TONIGHT BELOW 7000 FEET MSL.  VERY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE TO
ADVISORY SPEEDS SUNDAY IN ALL SOUTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING SRN PARTS
OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON...AND OWYHEE AND TWIN
FALLS COUNTIES IN IDAHO. ALSO...AVALANCHE DANGER WILL BECOME HIGH
SUNDAY IN THE SAWTOOTH RECREATION AREA. PCPN WILL DECREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER WINDS CHANGE TO NORTHWESTERLY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OFF THE COAST. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MONDAY WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF WINTER. WINTER BEGINS AT 403 PM MST SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHERLY TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF
THE WEST COAST AMPLIFIES BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION.
THIS SETUP ALLOWS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...WELL EAST
OF THE AREA. TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST WILL TEMPORARILY DEFLECT THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BEFORE DROPPING CHRISTMAS DAY. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO THE
VALLEY FLOORS WITH THIS COLD FRONT...WITH A CHANCE OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DANCING AROUND
NORMAL. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW. TIMING OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL BRING ARE STILL
UNCLEAR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY IDZ015-029-030.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ011.
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ TO 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/
     SUNDAY ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 210400
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
900 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...STRONG MOIST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC CONTINUES TO HELP
PRODUCE LARGE PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE AREA. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOST OF
TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW OUR FORECAST
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AS THE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWER TO BRING
WARM TEMPS THAN EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE
NIGHT...CLOSE TO THE FORECAST...SO IT WILL NOT BE UPDATED AT THIS
TIME. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST-
CENTRAL MTNS UNTIL 11 PM MST. IS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BE
SLOW TO PROGRESS...WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY A FEW MORE
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND SCATTERED IFR
WITH SNOW. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000 FT THIS
EVENING RISING TO 9000 FT IN SE OREGON AND 6500 FT IN CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO SW 10-20
KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN SE OREGON AND SOUTHERN
IDAHO TO WESTERLY 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NORTHWEST 50-70 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING HEAVY PCPN AND RISING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.  VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAINS SNOW WILL
BECOME ALL RAIN LATE TONIGHT BELOW 7000 FEET MSL.  VERY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE TO
ADVISORY SPEEDS SUNDAY IN ALL SOUTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING SRN PARTS
OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON...AND OWYHEE AND TWIN
FALLS COUNTIES IN IDAHO. ALSO...AVALANCHE DANGER WILL BECOME HIGH
SUNDAY IN THE SAWTOOTH RECREATION AREA. PCPN WILL DECREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER WINDS CHANGE TO NORTHWESTERLY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OFF THE COAST. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MONDAY WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF WINTER. WINTER BEGINS AT 403 PM MST SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHERLY TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF
THE WEST COAST AMPLIFIES BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION.
THIS SETUP ALLOWS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...WELL EAST
OF THE AREA. TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST WILL TEMPORARILY DEFLECT THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BEFORE DROPPING CHRISTMAS DAY. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO THE
VALLEY FLOORS WITH THIS COLD FRONT...WITH A CHANCE OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DANCING AROUND
NORMAL. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW. TIMING OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL BRING ARE STILL
UNCLEAR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY IDZ015-029-030.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ011.
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ TO 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/
     SUNDAY ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA/AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 210400
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
900 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...STRONG MOIST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC CONTINUES TO HELP
PRODUCE LARGE PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE AREA. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOST OF
TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW OUR FORECAST
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AS THE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWER TO BRING
WARM TEMPS THAN EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE
NIGHT...CLOSE TO THE FORECAST...SO IT WILL NOT BE UPDATED AT THIS
TIME. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST-
CENTRAL MTNS UNTIL 11 PM MST. IS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BE
SLOW TO PROGRESS...WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY A FEW MORE
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND SCATTERED IFR
WITH SNOW. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000 FT THIS
EVENING RISING TO 9000 FT IN SE OREGON AND 6500 FT IN CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO SW 10-20
KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN SE OREGON AND SOUTHERN
IDAHO TO WESTERLY 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NORTHWEST 50-70 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING HEAVY PCPN AND RISING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.  VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAINS SNOW WILL
BECOME ALL RAIN LATE TONIGHT BELOW 7000 FEET MSL.  VERY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE TO
ADVISORY SPEEDS SUNDAY IN ALL SOUTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING SRN PARTS
OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON...AND OWYHEE AND TWIN
FALLS COUNTIES IN IDAHO. ALSO...AVALANCHE DANGER WILL BECOME HIGH
SUNDAY IN THE SAWTOOTH RECREATION AREA. PCPN WILL DECREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER WINDS CHANGE TO NORTHWESTERLY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OFF THE COAST. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MONDAY WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF WINTER. WINTER BEGINS AT 403 PM MST SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHERLY TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF
THE WEST COAST AMPLIFIES BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION.
THIS SETUP ALLOWS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...WELL EAST
OF THE AREA. TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST WILL TEMPORARILY DEFLECT THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BEFORE DROPPING CHRISTMAS DAY. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO THE
VALLEY FLOORS WITH THIS COLD FRONT...WITH A CHANCE OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DANCING AROUND
NORMAL. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW. TIMING OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL BRING ARE STILL
UNCLEAR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY IDZ015-029-030.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ011.
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ TO 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/
     SUNDAY ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA/AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 210400
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
900 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...STRONG MOIST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC CONTINUES TO HELP
PRODUCE LARGE PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE AREA. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOST OF
TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW OUR FORECAST
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AS THE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWER TO BRING
WARM TEMPS THAN EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE
NIGHT...CLOSE TO THE FORECAST...SO IT WILL NOT BE UPDATED AT THIS
TIME. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST-
CENTRAL MTNS UNTIL 11 PM MST. IS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BE
SLOW TO PROGRESS...WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY A FEW MORE
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND SCATTERED IFR
WITH SNOW. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000 FT THIS
EVENING RISING TO 9000 FT IN SE OREGON AND 6500 FT IN CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO SW 10-20
KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN SE OREGON AND SOUTHERN
IDAHO TO WESTERLY 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NORTHWEST 50-70 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING HEAVY PCPN AND RISING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.  VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAINS SNOW WILL
BECOME ALL RAIN LATE TONIGHT BELOW 7000 FEET MSL.  VERY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE TO
ADVISORY SPEEDS SUNDAY IN ALL SOUTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING SRN PARTS
OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON...AND OWYHEE AND TWIN
FALLS COUNTIES IN IDAHO. ALSO...AVALANCHE DANGER WILL BECOME HIGH
SUNDAY IN THE SAWTOOTH RECREATION AREA. PCPN WILL DECREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER WINDS CHANGE TO NORTHWESTERLY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OFF THE COAST. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MONDAY WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF WINTER. WINTER BEGINS AT 403 PM MST SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHERLY TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF
THE WEST COAST AMPLIFIES BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION.
THIS SETUP ALLOWS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...WELL EAST
OF THE AREA. TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST WILL TEMPORARILY DEFLECT THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BEFORE DROPPING CHRISTMAS DAY. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO THE
VALLEY FLOORS WITH THIS COLD FRONT...WITH A CHANCE OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DANCING AROUND
NORMAL. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW. TIMING OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL BRING ARE STILL
UNCLEAR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY IDZ015-029-030.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ011.
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ TO 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/
     SUNDAY ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA/AB




000
FXUS66 KPQR 202307
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
306 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OR PLUME OF
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD EASE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THERE IS THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING FROM
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS
SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS
AND COAST RANGE. &&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WITH A CONNECTION TO A LONG FETCH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE HAS
BEGUN TO MOVE ONSHORE. AMSU DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A
PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS
SO FAR HAVE BEEN IN THE OREGON COAST RANGE WHERE MOST SITES HAVE SEEN
BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES OF RAIN SINCE LAST NIGHT. THE
COAST...WILLAPA HILLS...AND CASCADES HAVE SEEN AROUND ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WHILE THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS HAVE SEEN ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
SO FAR.

A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE APPROACHED THE COAST THIS MORNING AND HAS
SLOWLY MOVED ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST OUT AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH A FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS HAVING RECORDED GUSTS OF 45 TO
55 MPH. THE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE OVER THE OREGON COAST OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES INLAND...AND THEY
ARE JUST NOW PEAKING ALONG THE S WA COAST. WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN
FAIRLY GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE SIT IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.

IN ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION CONCERNS...THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SOME
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. WHILE THE OVERALL
SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY...WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AND ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. THE POTENTIAL
REMAINS FOR LARGE WAVES TO CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE SURF
ZONE WITH LARGE WAVES WITH THE ABILITY TO CRASH QUICKLY ON BEACHES
AND OVER JETTIES. BEACHGOERS AND STORM WATCHERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
AND EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AT THIS POINT...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WE WILL SIT IN WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG
W/SW FLOW AT LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL DRIVE SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. WITH THE ENHANCED
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALSO REMAINING IN PLACE...WE WILL SEE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SINCE WE ARE
LOSING A LOT OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
WARM FRONT...THE MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOW BE THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. THUS...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS GOING FORWARD. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE FOR THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WHERE THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHADOWING.

AS WE GET INTO LATER SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL TO OUR NORTH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COAST WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WORK IT/S WAY SOUTHWARD INTO
OUR CWA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THE STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL
WEAKEN AND PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF CONSIDERABLY. THE CURRENT FCST
MODEL TIMING HAS THE PRECIP OVER S WASHINGTON TAPERING OFF SUN
AFTERNOON...AND THE N OREGON CASCADES AND COAST RANGE DROPPING OFF
SUN EVENING. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY CONFINED
TO THE CENTRAL OR CASCADES AND COAST RANGE TOMORROW. EVENTUALLY THE
COLD FRONTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY
MON MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION DOWN TO NEAR THE
CASCADE PASSES LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
COMPLETELY ENDS.

CONDITIONS LOOK DRIER FOR MON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
PAC NW. THE 12Z ECMWF IS INDICATING THAT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
SOUTH MAY TRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT ON MON...SO DID
NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. BUT THE NAM AND GFS ARE COMPLETELY
DRY...SO STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON FOR MUCH OF TUE.
HOWEVER...FCST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BETTER THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
LIGHT RAIN ON TUE NIGHT OR WED AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
MOVES THROUGH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PYLE


&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN FLATTENING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONCERNING HOW FAR
SOUTH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT
OVERALL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH AND MOVE INLAND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BATCH OF COOL AND RAINY
CONDITIONS...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR 2000 FT SO EXPECT
SNOW SHOWERS OVER CASCADE PASSES RIGHT IN TIME FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL.
AGAIN...HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. LINGERING MOISTURE CONTINUES
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MOST PART. COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY. A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR RAIN AND SNOW ON THE MOUNTAINS.
/27
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS DIRTY
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND STARTS TO SHIFT INLAND. THIS MARKS THE NEXT
BEST SHOT FOR THE CASCADES TO FINALLY SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 2000 TO 2500 FT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. COLDER NORTH FLOW WILL FOLLOW
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL WELL BELOW NORMAL AS CONDITIONS DRY
OUT NEXT FRIDAY. /27
&&

.HYDROLOGY...A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BAND OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING
FROM THE TROPICS...CONTINUES TO TAKE AIM AT NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT RESULTED IN HEAVY
RAIN AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
HAVE MATCHED FORECASTED VALUES REASONABLY WELL TO THIS POINT. AS A
RESULT...OPTED TO ISSUE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SEVEN COASTAL RIVERS
INCLUDING THE GRAYS...NEHALEM AT FOSS...THE
WILSON...TRASK...SILETZ...ALSEA AND SIUSLAW AS MOST...IF NOT ALL OF
THESE RIVERS SHOULD REACH FLOOD STAGE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY
BASED ON OBSERVED AND FORECASTED RAINFALL. ONE GENERAL REGION THAT
HAS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IS IN THE CENTRAL/NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE
WHERE 3 TO 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SO FAR...RATHER THAN THE
EXPECTED 2 TO 3 INCHES TO THIS POINT. BECAUSE THIS REGION HAS
EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS...AND RAINFALL RATES HAVE HOVERED IN THE
QUARTER TO HALF INCH PER HOUR...SEVERAL OF THESE
RIVERS...PARTICULARLY THE WILSON AND SILETZ RIVERS...MAY REACH FLOOD
STAGE SEVERAL HOURS SOONER THAN THE CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS INDICATE.
WILL REEVALUATE THIS PORTION OF THE RIVER FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE ISSUING ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING AS CONFIDENCE GROWS THAT ADDITIONAL
RIVERS IN THE AREA WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE. AT THIS POINT...NEARLY 20
RIVERS STAND A DECENT SHOT OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS SETS UP...A COUPLE CERTAINLY STAND A
CHANCE OF REACHING MAJOR FLOOD STAGE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT
TERRIBLY HIGH WHERE THIS WILL BE. CURRENT MODELS AND FORECASTS
SUGGEST THE CLACKAMAS RIVER NEAR ESTACADA AND THE MARYS RIVER NEAR
PHILOMATH STAND THE BEST CHANCE...BUT THESE ARE CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE...AND NO FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE RIVERS AS
OF SATURDAY MID AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED IF ONE OR TWO
RIVERS ALONG THE COAST REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE...BUT WHICH ONE OR
TWO REMAINS UNCERTAIN. BASED ON TRENDS TODAY...THE WILSON AND SILETZ
HAVE OUR ATTENTION. PLEASE MONITOR
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR FOR THE LATEST RIVER
OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST INFORMATION.

IN ADDITION TO RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS...WE HAVE ALSO BEEN DEALING
WITH SOME FLOODING ISSUES FROM TIDAL OVERFLOW. DESPITE LOWER FLOWS ON
COASTAL RIVERS THIS MORNING...SOME MINORTIDAL OVERFLOW WAS OBSERVED
ALONG THE COAST. THE HIGH TIDE DURING LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY WILL BE
OF ABOUT THE SAME MAGNITUDE...AND WITH MUCH HIGHER FLOWS EXPECTED DUE
TO THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER THE COASTAL RIVER BASINS...CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IMPACTS WILL
BE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY WITH TOTAL TIDES PUSHING NEAR 11 FT WITH
COASTAL RIVERS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING BANKFULL. LOW LYING AREAS
NEAR WILLAPA BAY...TILLAMOOK BAY...DEPOE BAY...WALDPORT...AND
FLORENCE...ALONG WITH STRETCHES OF HIGHWAY 101 ALONG THE COAST...MAY
EXPERIENCE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW DURING THE HIGH TIDE AROUND 11 AM
SUNDAY. PEAK IMPACTS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN ABOUT 9 AM AND 3 PM. WITH
RIVERS CONTINUING TO RUN AT OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE...THE MIDDAY HIGH
TIDE ON MONDAY MAY AGAIN CAUSE SOME MINOR ISSUES.

THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROCKS AND MUDSLIDES
IMPACTING TRAVEL ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS...COAST
RANGE AND IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL INCIDENTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN AREAS OF STEEPER TERRAIN. BURN SCARS FROM THE
36 PIT FIRE IN THE CLACKAMAS RIVER BASIN NEAR ESTACADA AND THE
DECEPTION COMPLEX NEAR OAKRIDGE...WILL BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE.
/NEUMAN

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS STEADY AROUND 1500 FT AND VIS REMAINING
IN THE 3-5 SM RANGE. MEANWHILE...THE COASTAL AREAS REPORT MOSTLY
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
FRONTAL BAND WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND RAIN CONTINUES.
GUSTY S WINDS TO 35 KT CAN BE EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS...IN
ADDITION TO SOME PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR INCLUDING KSLE. SOME
LOCAL POCKETS OF LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS...IFR FOR THE INTERIOR
AND LIFR FOR THE COAST...MAY DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME MORE W BY AROUND 12Z SUN AS SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
REGION.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOWER MVFR CIGS PREVAIL THIS
EVENING...AROUND 1500 FT. MAY SEE SOME OCCASIONAL LOWERING TO NEAR
1000 FT ALONG WITH SOME RESTRICTION IN VIS...INTO THE 3-4 SM
RANGE WITH CONTINUING RAIN. LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. S WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SW OR WSW AFT 14Z SUN AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE EASED A LITTLE FROM THEIR PEAK EARLIER
TODAY...BUT GUSTS REMAIN AROUND 35 KT THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER BURST OF STRONGER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE GALE
WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL EASE GRADUALLY THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS DECREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE OVER
ALL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH DAY
SUN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND BECOMING MORE W AND
THEN NW. WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN AROUND MIDWEEK INTO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 18 TO 20 FT RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO NEAR 15 FT SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SEAS LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY UNTIL FRIDAY. CULLEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
     OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH
     OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PST
SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 202307
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
306 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OR PLUME OF
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD EASE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THERE IS THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING FROM
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS
SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS
AND COAST RANGE. &&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WITH A CONNECTION TO A LONG FETCH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE HAS
BEGUN TO MOVE ONSHORE. AMSU DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A
PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS
SO FAR HAVE BEEN IN THE OREGON COAST RANGE WHERE MOST SITES HAVE SEEN
BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES OF RAIN SINCE LAST NIGHT. THE
COAST...WILLAPA HILLS...AND CASCADES HAVE SEEN AROUND ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WHILE THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS HAVE SEEN ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
SO FAR.

A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE APPROACHED THE COAST THIS MORNING AND HAS
SLOWLY MOVED ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST OUT AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH A FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS HAVING RECORDED GUSTS OF 45 TO
55 MPH. THE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE OVER THE OREGON COAST OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES INLAND...AND THEY
ARE JUST NOW PEAKING ALONG THE S WA COAST. WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN
FAIRLY GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE SIT IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.

IN ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION CONCERNS...THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SOME
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. WHILE THE OVERALL
SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY...WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AND ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. THE POTENTIAL
REMAINS FOR LARGE WAVES TO CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE SURF
ZONE WITH LARGE WAVES WITH THE ABILITY TO CRASH QUICKLY ON BEACHES
AND OVER JETTIES. BEACHGOERS AND STORM WATCHERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
AND EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AT THIS POINT...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WE WILL SIT IN WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG
W/SW FLOW AT LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL DRIVE SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. WITH THE ENHANCED
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALSO REMAINING IN PLACE...WE WILL SEE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SINCE WE ARE
LOSING A LOT OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
WARM FRONT...THE MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOW BE THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. THUS...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS GOING FORWARD. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE FOR THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WHERE THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHADOWING.

AS WE GET INTO LATER SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL TO OUR NORTH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COAST WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WORK IT/S WAY SOUTHWARD INTO
OUR CWA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THE STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL
WEAKEN AND PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF CONSIDERABLY. THE CURRENT FCST
MODEL TIMING HAS THE PRECIP OVER S WASHINGTON TAPERING OFF SUN
AFTERNOON...AND THE N OREGON CASCADES AND COAST RANGE DROPPING OFF
SUN EVENING. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY CONFINED
TO THE CENTRAL OR CASCADES AND COAST RANGE TOMORROW. EVENTUALLY THE
COLD FRONTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY
MON MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION DOWN TO NEAR THE
CASCADE PASSES LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
COMPLETELY ENDS.

CONDITIONS LOOK DRIER FOR MON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
PAC NW. THE 12Z ECMWF IS INDICATING THAT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
SOUTH MAY TRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT ON MON...SO DID
NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. BUT THE NAM AND GFS ARE COMPLETELY
DRY...SO STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON FOR MUCH OF TUE.
HOWEVER...FCST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BETTER THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
LIGHT RAIN ON TUE NIGHT OR WED AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
MOVES THROUGH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PYLE


&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN FLATTENING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONCERNING HOW FAR
SOUTH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT
OVERALL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH AND MOVE INLAND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BATCH OF COOL AND RAINY
CONDITIONS...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR 2000 FT SO EXPECT
SNOW SHOWERS OVER CASCADE PASSES RIGHT IN TIME FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL.
AGAIN...HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. LINGERING MOISTURE CONTINUES
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MOST PART. COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY. A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR RAIN AND SNOW ON THE MOUNTAINS.
/27
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS DIRTY
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND STARTS TO SHIFT INLAND. THIS MARKS THE NEXT
BEST SHOT FOR THE CASCADES TO FINALLY SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 2000 TO 2500 FT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. COLDER NORTH FLOW WILL FOLLOW
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL WELL BELOW NORMAL AS CONDITIONS DRY
OUT NEXT FRIDAY. /27
&&

.HYDROLOGY...A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BAND OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING
FROM THE TROPICS...CONTINUES TO TAKE AIM AT NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT RESULTED IN HEAVY
RAIN AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
HAVE MATCHED FORECASTED VALUES REASONABLY WELL TO THIS POINT. AS A
RESULT...OPTED TO ISSUE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SEVEN COASTAL RIVERS
INCLUDING THE GRAYS...NEHALEM AT FOSS...THE
WILSON...TRASK...SILETZ...ALSEA AND SIUSLAW AS MOST...IF NOT ALL OF
THESE RIVERS SHOULD REACH FLOOD STAGE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY
BASED ON OBSERVED AND FORECASTED RAINFALL. ONE GENERAL REGION THAT
HAS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IS IN THE CENTRAL/NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE
WHERE 3 TO 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SO FAR...RATHER THAN THE
EXPECTED 2 TO 3 INCHES TO THIS POINT. BECAUSE THIS REGION HAS
EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS...AND RAINFALL RATES HAVE HOVERED IN THE
QUARTER TO HALF INCH PER HOUR...SEVERAL OF THESE
RIVERS...PARTICULARLY THE WILSON AND SILETZ RIVERS...MAY REACH FLOOD
STAGE SEVERAL HOURS SOONER THAN THE CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS INDICATE.
WILL REEVALUATE THIS PORTION OF THE RIVER FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE ISSUING ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING AS CONFIDENCE GROWS THAT ADDITIONAL
RIVERS IN THE AREA WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE. AT THIS POINT...NEARLY 20
RIVERS STAND A DECENT SHOT OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS SETS UP...A COUPLE CERTAINLY STAND A
CHANCE OF REACHING MAJOR FLOOD STAGE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT
TERRIBLY HIGH WHERE THIS WILL BE. CURRENT MODELS AND FORECASTS
SUGGEST THE CLACKAMAS RIVER NEAR ESTACADA AND THE MARYS RIVER NEAR
PHILOMATH STAND THE BEST CHANCE...BUT THESE ARE CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE...AND NO FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE RIVERS AS
OF SATURDAY MID AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED IF ONE OR TWO
RIVERS ALONG THE COAST REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE...BUT WHICH ONE OR
TWO REMAINS UNCERTAIN. BASED ON TRENDS TODAY...THE WILSON AND SILETZ
HAVE OUR ATTENTION. PLEASE MONITOR
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR FOR THE LATEST RIVER
OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST INFORMATION.

IN ADDITION TO RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS...WE HAVE ALSO BEEN DEALING
WITH SOME FLOODING ISSUES FROM TIDAL OVERFLOW. DESPITE LOWER FLOWS ON
COASTAL RIVERS THIS MORNING...SOME MINORTIDAL OVERFLOW WAS OBSERVED
ALONG THE COAST. THE HIGH TIDE DURING LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY WILL BE
OF ABOUT THE SAME MAGNITUDE...AND WITH MUCH HIGHER FLOWS EXPECTED DUE
TO THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER THE COASTAL RIVER BASINS...CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IMPACTS WILL
BE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY WITH TOTAL TIDES PUSHING NEAR 11 FT WITH
COASTAL RIVERS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING BANKFULL. LOW LYING AREAS
NEAR WILLAPA BAY...TILLAMOOK BAY...DEPOE BAY...WALDPORT...AND
FLORENCE...ALONG WITH STRETCHES OF HIGHWAY 101 ALONG THE COAST...MAY
EXPERIENCE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW DURING THE HIGH TIDE AROUND 11 AM
SUNDAY. PEAK IMPACTS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN ABOUT 9 AM AND 3 PM. WITH
RIVERS CONTINUING TO RUN AT OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE...THE MIDDAY HIGH
TIDE ON MONDAY MAY AGAIN CAUSE SOME MINOR ISSUES.

THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROCKS AND MUDSLIDES
IMPACTING TRAVEL ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS...COAST
RANGE AND IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL INCIDENTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN AREAS OF STEEPER TERRAIN. BURN SCARS FROM THE
36 PIT FIRE IN THE CLACKAMAS RIVER BASIN NEAR ESTACADA AND THE
DECEPTION COMPLEX NEAR OAKRIDGE...WILL BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE.
/NEUMAN

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS STEADY AROUND 1500 FT AND VIS REMAINING
IN THE 3-5 SM RANGE. MEANWHILE...THE COASTAL AREAS REPORT MOSTLY
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
FRONTAL BAND WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND RAIN CONTINUES.
GUSTY S WINDS TO 35 KT CAN BE EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS...IN
ADDITION TO SOME PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR INCLUDING KSLE. SOME
LOCAL POCKETS OF LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS...IFR FOR THE INTERIOR
AND LIFR FOR THE COAST...MAY DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME MORE W BY AROUND 12Z SUN AS SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
REGION.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOWER MVFR CIGS PREVAIL THIS
EVENING...AROUND 1500 FT. MAY SEE SOME OCCASIONAL LOWERING TO NEAR
1000 FT ALONG WITH SOME RESTRICTION IN VIS...INTO THE 3-4 SM
RANGE WITH CONTINUING RAIN. LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. S WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SW OR WSW AFT 14Z SUN AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE EASED A LITTLE FROM THEIR PEAK EARLIER
TODAY...BUT GUSTS REMAIN AROUND 35 KT THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER BURST OF STRONGER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE GALE
WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL EASE GRADUALLY THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS DECREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE OVER
ALL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH DAY
SUN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND BECOMING MORE W AND
THEN NW. WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN AROUND MIDWEEK INTO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 18 TO 20 FT RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO NEAR 15 FT SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SEAS LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY UNTIL FRIDAY. CULLEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
     OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH
     OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PST
SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 202307
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
306 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OR PLUME OF
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD EASE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THERE IS THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING FROM
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS
SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS
AND COAST RANGE. &&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WITH A CONNECTION TO A LONG FETCH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE HAS
BEGUN TO MOVE ONSHORE. AMSU DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A
PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS
SO FAR HAVE BEEN IN THE OREGON COAST RANGE WHERE MOST SITES HAVE SEEN
BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES OF RAIN SINCE LAST NIGHT. THE
COAST...WILLAPA HILLS...AND CASCADES HAVE SEEN AROUND ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WHILE THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS HAVE SEEN ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
SO FAR.

A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE APPROACHED THE COAST THIS MORNING AND HAS
SLOWLY MOVED ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST OUT AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH A FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS HAVING RECORDED GUSTS OF 45 TO
55 MPH. THE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE OVER THE OREGON COAST OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES INLAND...AND THEY
ARE JUST NOW PEAKING ALONG THE S WA COAST. WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN
FAIRLY GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE SIT IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.

IN ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION CONCERNS...THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SOME
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. WHILE THE OVERALL
SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY...WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AND ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. THE POTENTIAL
REMAINS FOR LARGE WAVES TO CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE SURF
ZONE WITH LARGE WAVES WITH THE ABILITY TO CRASH QUICKLY ON BEACHES
AND OVER JETTIES. BEACHGOERS AND STORM WATCHERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
AND EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AT THIS POINT...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WE WILL SIT IN WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG
W/SW FLOW AT LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL DRIVE SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. WITH THE ENHANCED
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALSO REMAINING IN PLACE...WE WILL SEE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SINCE WE ARE
LOSING A LOT OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
WARM FRONT...THE MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOW BE THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. THUS...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS GOING FORWARD. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE FOR THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WHERE THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHADOWING.

AS WE GET INTO LATER SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL TO OUR NORTH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COAST WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WORK IT/S WAY SOUTHWARD INTO
OUR CWA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THE STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL
WEAKEN AND PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF CONSIDERABLY. THE CURRENT FCST
MODEL TIMING HAS THE PRECIP OVER S WASHINGTON TAPERING OFF SUN
AFTERNOON...AND THE N OREGON CASCADES AND COAST RANGE DROPPING OFF
SUN EVENING. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY CONFINED
TO THE CENTRAL OR CASCADES AND COAST RANGE TOMORROW. EVENTUALLY THE
COLD FRONTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY
MON MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION DOWN TO NEAR THE
CASCADE PASSES LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
COMPLETELY ENDS.

CONDITIONS LOOK DRIER FOR MON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
PAC NW. THE 12Z ECMWF IS INDICATING THAT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
SOUTH MAY TRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT ON MON...SO DID
NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. BUT THE NAM AND GFS ARE COMPLETELY
DRY...SO STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON FOR MUCH OF TUE.
HOWEVER...FCST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BETTER THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
LIGHT RAIN ON TUE NIGHT OR WED AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
MOVES THROUGH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PYLE


&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN FLATTENING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONCERNING HOW FAR
SOUTH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT
OVERALL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH AND MOVE INLAND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BATCH OF COOL AND RAINY
CONDITIONS...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR 2000 FT SO EXPECT
SNOW SHOWERS OVER CASCADE PASSES RIGHT IN TIME FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL.
AGAIN...HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. LINGERING MOISTURE CONTINUES
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MOST PART. COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY. A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR RAIN AND SNOW ON THE MOUNTAINS.
/27
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS DIRTY
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND STARTS TO SHIFT INLAND. THIS MARKS THE NEXT
BEST SHOT FOR THE CASCADES TO FINALLY SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 2000 TO 2500 FT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. COLDER NORTH FLOW WILL FOLLOW
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL WELL BELOW NORMAL AS CONDITIONS DRY
OUT NEXT FRIDAY. /27
&&

.HYDROLOGY...A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BAND OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING
FROM THE TROPICS...CONTINUES TO TAKE AIM AT NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT RESULTED IN HEAVY
RAIN AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
HAVE MATCHED FORECASTED VALUES REASONABLY WELL TO THIS POINT. AS A
RESULT...OPTED TO ISSUE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SEVEN COASTAL RIVERS
INCLUDING THE GRAYS...NEHALEM AT FOSS...THE
WILSON...TRASK...SILETZ...ALSEA AND SIUSLAW AS MOST...IF NOT ALL OF
THESE RIVERS SHOULD REACH FLOOD STAGE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY
BASED ON OBSERVED AND FORECASTED RAINFALL. ONE GENERAL REGION THAT
HAS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IS IN THE CENTRAL/NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE
WHERE 3 TO 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SO FAR...RATHER THAN THE
EXPECTED 2 TO 3 INCHES TO THIS POINT. BECAUSE THIS REGION HAS
EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS...AND RAINFALL RATES HAVE HOVERED IN THE
QUARTER TO HALF INCH PER HOUR...SEVERAL OF THESE
RIVERS...PARTICULARLY THE WILSON AND SILETZ RIVERS...MAY REACH FLOOD
STAGE SEVERAL HOURS SOONER THAN THE CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS INDICATE.
WILL REEVALUATE THIS PORTION OF THE RIVER FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE ISSUING ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING AS CONFIDENCE GROWS THAT ADDITIONAL
RIVERS IN THE AREA WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE. AT THIS POINT...NEARLY 20
RIVERS STAND A DECENT SHOT OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS SETS UP...A COUPLE CERTAINLY STAND A
CHANCE OF REACHING MAJOR FLOOD STAGE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT
TERRIBLY HIGH WHERE THIS WILL BE. CURRENT MODELS AND FORECASTS
SUGGEST THE CLACKAMAS RIVER NEAR ESTACADA AND THE MARYS RIVER NEAR
PHILOMATH STAND THE BEST CHANCE...BUT THESE ARE CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE...AND NO FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE RIVERS AS
OF SATURDAY MID AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED IF ONE OR TWO
RIVERS ALONG THE COAST REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE...BUT WHICH ONE OR
TWO REMAINS UNCERTAIN. BASED ON TRENDS TODAY...THE WILSON AND SILETZ
HAVE OUR ATTENTION. PLEASE MONITOR
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR FOR THE LATEST RIVER
OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST INFORMATION.

IN ADDITION TO RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS...WE HAVE ALSO BEEN DEALING
WITH SOME FLOODING ISSUES FROM TIDAL OVERFLOW. DESPITE LOWER FLOWS ON
COASTAL RIVERS THIS MORNING...SOME MINORTIDAL OVERFLOW WAS OBSERVED
ALONG THE COAST. THE HIGH TIDE DURING LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY WILL BE
OF ABOUT THE SAME MAGNITUDE...AND WITH MUCH HIGHER FLOWS EXPECTED DUE
TO THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER THE COASTAL RIVER BASINS...CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IMPACTS WILL
BE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY WITH TOTAL TIDES PUSHING NEAR 11 FT WITH
COASTAL RIVERS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING BANKFULL. LOW LYING AREAS
NEAR WILLAPA BAY...TILLAMOOK BAY...DEPOE BAY...WALDPORT...AND
FLORENCE...ALONG WITH STRETCHES OF HIGHWAY 101 ALONG THE COAST...MAY
EXPERIENCE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW DURING THE HIGH TIDE AROUND 11 AM
SUNDAY. PEAK IMPACTS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN ABOUT 9 AM AND 3 PM. WITH
RIVERS CONTINUING TO RUN AT OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE...THE MIDDAY HIGH
TIDE ON MONDAY MAY AGAIN CAUSE SOME MINOR ISSUES.

THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROCKS AND MUDSLIDES
IMPACTING TRAVEL ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS...COAST
RANGE AND IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL INCIDENTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN AREAS OF STEEPER TERRAIN. BURN SCARS FROM THE
36 PIT FIRE IN THE CLACKAMAS RIVER BASIN NEAR ESTACADA AND THE
DECEPTION COMPLEX NEAR OAKRIDGE...WILL BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE.
/NEUMAN

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS STEADY AROUND 1500 FT AND VIS REMAINING
IN THE 3-5 SM RANGE. MEANWHILE...THE COASTAL AREAS REPORT MOSTLY
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
FRONTAL BAND WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND RAIN CONTINUES.
GUSTY S WINDS TO 35 KT CAN BE EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS...IN
ADDITION TO SOME PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR INCLUDING KSLE. SOME
LOCAL POCKETS OF LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS...IFR FOR THE INTERIOR
AND LIFR FOR THE COAST...MAY DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME MORE W BY AROUND 12Z SUN AS SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
REGION.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOWER MVFR CIGS PREVAIL THIS
EVENING...AROUND 1500 FT. MAY SEE SOME OCCASIONAL LOWERING TO NEAR
1000 FT ALONG WITH SOME RESTRICTION IN VIS...INTO THE 3-4 SM
RANGE WITH CONTINUING RAIN. LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. S WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SW OR WSW AFT 14Z SUN AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE EASED A LITTLE FROM THEIR PEAK EARLIER
TODAY...BUT GUSTS REMAIN AROUND 35 KT THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER BURST OF STRONGER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE GALE
WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL EASE GRADUALLY THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS DECREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE OVER
ALL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH DAY
SUN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND BECOMING MORE W AND
THEN NW. WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN AROUND MIDWEEK INTO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 18 TO 20 FT RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO NEAR 15 FT SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SEAS LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY UNTIL FRIDAY. CULLEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
     OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH
     OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PST
SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 202307
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
306 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OR PLUME OF
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD EASE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THERE IS THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING FROM
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS
SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS
AND COAST RANGE. &&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WITH A CONNECTION TO A LONG FETCH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE HAS
BEGUN TO MOVE ONSHORE. AMSU DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A
PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS
SO FAR HAVE BEEN IN THE OREGON COAST RANGE WHERE MOST SITES HAVE SEEN
BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES OF RAIN SINCE LAST NIGHT. THE
COAST...WILLAPA HILLS...AND CASCADES HAVE SEEN AROUND ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WHILE THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS HAVE SEEN ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
SO FAR.

A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE APPROACHED THE COAST THIS MORNING AND HAS
SLOWLY MOVED ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST OUT AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH A FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS HAVING RECORDED GUSTS OF 45 TO
55 MPH. THE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE OVER THE OREGON COAST OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES INLAND...AND THEY
ARE JUST NOW PEAKING ALONG THE S WA COAST. WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN
FAIRLY GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE SIT IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.

IN ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION CONCERNS...THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SOME
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. WHILE THE OVERALL
SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY...WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AND ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. THE POTENTIAL
REMAINS FOR LARGE WAVES TO CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE SURF
ZONE WITH LARGE WAVES WITH THE ABILITY TO CRASH QUICKLY ON BEACHES
AND OVER JETTIES. BEACHGOERS AND STORM WATCHERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
AND EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AT THIS POINT...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WE WILL SIT IN WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG
W/SW FLOW AT LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL DRIVE SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. WITH THE ENHANCED
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALSO REMAINING IN PLACE...WE WILL SEE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SINCE WE ARE
LOSING A LOT OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
WARM FRONT...THE MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOW BE THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. THUS...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS GOING FORWARD. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE FOR THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WHERE THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHADOWING.

AS WE GET INTO LATER SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL TO OUR NORTH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COAST WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WORK IT/S WAY SOUTHWARD INTO
OUR CWA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THE STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL
WEAKEN AND PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF CONSIDERABLY. THE CURRENT FCST
MODEL TIMING HAS THE PRECIP OVER S WASHINGTON TAPERING OFF SUN
AFTERNOON...AND THE N OREGON CASCADES AND COAST RANGE DROPPING OFF
SUN EVENING. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY CONFINED
TO THE CENTRAL OR CASCADES AND COAST RANGE TOMORROW. EVENTUALLY THE
COLD FRONTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY
MON MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION DOWN TO NEAR THE
CASCADE PASSES LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
COMPLETELY ENDS.

CONDITIONS LOOK DRIER FOR MON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
PAC NW. THE 12Z ECMWF IS INDICATING THAT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
SOUTH MAY TRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT ON MON...SO DID
NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. BUT THE NAM AND GFS ARE COMPLETELY
DRY...SO STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON FOR MUCH OF TUE.
HOWEVER...FCST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BETTER THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
LIGHT RAIN ON TUE NIGHT OR WED AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
MOVES THROUGH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PYLE


&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN FLATTENING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONCERNING HOW FAR
SOUTH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT
OVERALL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH AND MOVE INLAND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BATCH OF COOL AND RAINY
CONDITIONS...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR 2000 FT SO EXPECT
SNOW SHOWERS OVER CASCADE PASSES RIGHT IN TIME FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL.
AGAIN...HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. LINGERING MOISTURE CONTINUES
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MOST PART. COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY. A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR RAIN AND SNOW ON THE MOUNTAINS.
/27
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS DIRTY
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND STARTS TO SHIFT INLAND. THIS MARKS THE NEXT
BEST SHOT FOR THE CASCADES TO FINALLY SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 2000 TO 2500 FT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. COLDER NORTH FLOW WILL FOLLOW
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL WELL BELOW NORMAL AS CONDITIONS DRY
OUT NEXT FRIDAY. /27
&&

.HYDROLOGY...A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BAND OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING
FROM THE TROPICS...CONTINUES TO TAKE AIM AT NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT RESULTED IN HEAVY
RAIN AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
HAVE MATCHED FORECASTED VALUES REASONABLY WELL TO THIS POINT. AS A
RESULT...OPTED TO ISSUE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SEVEN COASTAL RIVERS
INCLUDING THE GRAYS...NEHALEM AT FOSS...THE
WILSON...TRASK...SILETZ...ALSEA AND SIUSLAW AS MOST...IF NOT ALL OF
THESE RIVERS SHOULD REACH FLOOD STAGE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY
BASED ON OBSERVED AND FORECASTED RAINFALL. ONE GENERAL REGION THAT
HAS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IS IN THE CENTRAL/NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE
WHERE 3 TO 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SO FAR...RATHER THAN THE
EXPECTED 2 TO 3 INCHES TO THIS POINT. BECAUSE THIS REGION HAS
EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS...AND RAINFALL RATES HAVE HOVERED IN THE
QUARTER TO HALF INCH PER HOUR...SEVERAL OF THESE
RIVERS...PARTICULARLY THE WILSON AND SILETZ RIVERS...MAY REACH FLOOD
STAGE SEVERAL HOURS SOONER THAN THE CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS INDICATE.
WILL REEVALUATE THIS PORTION OF THE RIVER FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE ISSUING ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING AS CONFIDENCE GROWS THAT ADDITIONAL
RIVERS IN THE AREA WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE. AT THIS POINT...NEARLY 20
RIVERS STAND A DECENT SHOT OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS SETS UP...A COUPLE CERTAINLY STAND A
CHANCE OF REACHING MAJOR FLOOD STAGE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT
TERRIBLY HIGH WHERE THIS WILL BE. CURRENT MODELS AND FORECASTS
SUGGEST THE CLACKAMAS RIVER NEAR ESTACADA AND THE MARYS RIVER NEAR
PHILOMATH STAND THE BEST CHANCE...BUT THESE ARE CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE...AND NO FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE RIVERS AS
OF SATURDAY MID AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED IF ONE OR TWO
RIVERS ALONG THE COAST REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE...BUT WHICH ONE OR
TWO REMAINS UNCERTAIN. BASED ON TRENDS TODAY...THE WILSON AND SILETZ
HAVE OUR ATTENTION. PLEASE MONITOR
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR FOR THE LATEST RIVER
OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST INFORMATION.

IN ADDITION TO RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS...WE HAVE ALSO BEEN DEALING
WITH SOME FLOODING ISSUES FROM TIDAL OVERFLOW. DESPITE LOWER FLOWS ON
COASTAL RIVERS THIS MORNING...SOME MINORTIDAL OVERFLOW WAS OBSERVED
ALONG THE COAST. THE HIGH TIDE DURING LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY WILL BE
OF ABOUT THE SAME MAGNITUDE...AND WITH MUCH HIGHER FLOWS EXPECTED DUE
TO THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER THE COASTAL RIVER BASINS...CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IMPACTS WILL
BE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY WITH TOTAL TIDES PUSHING NEAR 11 FT WITH
COASTAL RIVERS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING BANKFULL. LOW LYING AREAS
NEAR WILLAPA BAY...TILLAMOOK BAY...DEPOE BAY...WALDPORT...AND
FLORENCE...ALONG WITH STRETCHES OF HIGHWAY 101 ALONG THE COAST...MAY
EXPERIENCE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW DURING THE HIGH TIDE AROUND 11 AM
SUNDAY. PEAK IMPACTS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN ABOUT 9 AM AND 3 PM. WITH
RIVERS CONTINUING TO RUN AT OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE...THE MIDDAY HIGH
TIDE ON MONDAY MAY AGAIN CAUSE SOME MINOR ISSUES.

THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROCKS AND MUDSLIDES
IMPACTING TRAVEL ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS...COAST
RANGE AND IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL INCIDENTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN AREAS OF STEEPER TERRAIN. BURN SCARS FROM THE
36 PIT FIRE IN THE CLACKAMAS RIVER BASIN NEAR ESTACADA AND THE
DECEPTION COMPLEX NEAR OAKRIDGE...WILL BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE.
/NEUMAN

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS STEADY AROUND 1500 FT AND VIS REMAINING
IN THE 3-5 SM RANGE. MEANWHILE...THE COASTAL AREAS REPORT MOSTLY
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
FRONTAL BAND WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND RAIN CONTINUES.
GUSTY S WINDS TO 35 KT CAN BE EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS...IN
ADDITION TO SOME PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR INCLUDING KSLE. SOME
LOCAL POCKETS OF LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS...IFR FOR THE INTERIOR
AND LIFR FOR THE COAST...MAY DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME MORE W BY AROUND 12Z SUN AS SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
REGION.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOWER MVFR CIGS PREVAIL THIS
EVENING...AROUND 1500 FT. MAY SEE SOME OCCASIONAL LOWERING TO NEAR
1000 FT ALONG WITH SOME RESTRICTION IN VIS...INTO THE 3-4 SM
RANGE WITH CONTINUING RAIN. LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. S WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SW OR WSW AFT 14Z SUN AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE EASED A LITTLE FROM THEIR PEAK EARLIER
TODAY...BUT GUSTS REMAIN AROUND 35 KT THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER BURST OF STRONGER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE GALE
WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL EASE GRADUALLY THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS DECREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE OVER
ALL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH DAY
SUN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND BECOMING MORE W AND
THEN NW. WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN AROUND MIDWEEK INTO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 18 TO 20 FT RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO NEAR 15 FT SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SEAS LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY UNTIL FRIDAY. CULLEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
     OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH
     OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PST
SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMFR 202245
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
245 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...HEAVY RAIN IS IMPACTING THE COAST TODAY WITH
MODERATE RAINFALL EXTENDING INLAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
OR MORE AIMED AT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS ALONG
THE COAST HAVE RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE COASTAL CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON THE COAST.

ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA
OF MOISTURE WITH 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER EXTENDING
FROM THE OREGON COAST WESTWARD. AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET PROVIDES CONTINUED SUPPORT ALOFT, EXPECT
VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THROUGH
SUNDAY, HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES WITH MODERATE RAIN OVER THE INLAND WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.


MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH FORECAST PRECIPITATION FROM THE
CASCADES WEST. INTEGRATED VERTICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FORECAST BY
THE MODELS SUPPORTS VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH IVT VALUES
FORECAST TO EXCEED 600 KG/MS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
WITH PEAK VALUES AROUND 800 KG/MS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. SO HAVE RAISED THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH AROUND 4
TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 140 AND IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS.  ALONG THE COAST
EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 2.5 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH RAINFALL THAT HAS
ALREADY FALLEN ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND INTO JOSEPHINE AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. SMALL STREAM
FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. ALSO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES, LANDSLIDES OR OTHER
DEBRIS FLOW ON AREA ROADWAYS. GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
AND SUNDAY AND ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAY ALLOW
ADDITIONAL HAZARDS AS WINDS COMBINE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND BRING
LOWERED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TREES DOWN.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SUMMER LAKE AREA AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE
TO 60 MPH OR MORE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, EXPECT GUSTS TO
AROUND 70 MPH IN THE SUMMER LAKE AREA. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS OUT
FOR SUMMER LAKE AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER IN THE SHASTA VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT BUT CONTINUE EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY.

LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE VALUES
DECREASING AND 700 MB FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY THEN
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER AIR MASS
INTO THE AREA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH OVER THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE CHANGE TO NORTHERLY FLOW.

ON TUESDAY, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR EXTREME
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS SOME MODELS INDICATE A FRONT TO
THE NORTH MAY EXTEND INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... THE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY WILL SLIDE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC. THE AIR MASS PRECEDING THE
FRONT WILL BE QUITE WARM, WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE MOST AREA
PEAKS, BUT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF COLD AIR AS THE
FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE
SEASONALLY TYPICAL MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO RAINFALL
AMOUNT SHOULD NOT APPROACH VALUES SEEN WITH THE CURRENT WEEKEND
EVENT, BUT MODEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR THOSE THINKING OF THE APPROACHING HOLIDAY, YES THERE WILL BE
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE. HOWEVER,
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN, WITH SNOW LEVELS NOT
DROPPING FAR ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT AREA COVERAGE UNTIL MOST OF THE
MOISTURE HAS LEFT THE AREA. THE END RESULT WILL DEPEND GREATLY UPON
ONE`S LOCATION, WITH THE COAST AND THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS SEEING ONLY
RAIN, AND WAKING UP TO A WET CHRISTMAS MORNING. NOW THE GOOD NEWS,
FOR THOSE ABOVE 2500 TO 3000 FEET, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF FRESHLY
FALLEN SNOW CHRISTMAS MORNING, ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

UNFORTUNATELY, THIS ELEVATION ALSO INCLUDES MANY AREA PASSES,
INCLUDING SISKIYOU SUMMIT, SNOWMAN`S SUMMIT, BLACK BUTTE SUMMIT, AND
ALL OF THE CASCADE PASSES. LAST MINUTE TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD
BE IMPACTED, SO THOSE EXPECTING TO TRAVEL DURING THIS TIME SHOULD
STAY UPDATED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND KEEP AN EYE ON DOT ROAD
CONDITIONS.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS, THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY, ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS SWIFT MIDLEVEL FLOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE PUSHING MOISTURE
ONSHORE. THIS TIME OF YEAR, HIGH PRESSURE USUALLY RESULTS IN
SIGNIFICANT VALLEY FOG. WITH THAT IN MIND, THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED
TO APPROACH AND POSSIBLY CLEAR THE AREA WOULD BE ON SATURDAY,
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE NOT IN CLEAR AGREEMENT, NOR DO THEY SHOW A
STRONG FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE LOW, SO HAVE NOT ADDED MORE
THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 20/18Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT VFR
WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS EARLY TODAY TO DETERIORATE TO WIDESPREAD
MVFR WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...EXCEPT AT
THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE ENDING AT THE COAST AS WINDS BEGIN TO
SURFACE, BUT MAY CONTINUE AT KRBG THROUGH 15Z.
-BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014...WINDS HAVE DECREASED
BELOW GALES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY THEN REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL THROUGH
SUNDAY AS BOTH SWELL AND WIND WAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE WIND
WAVE COMPONENT WILL BE MUCH LESS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD
MAY BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. -WRIGHT



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ025-027-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ024-618-621.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ616-619-620.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ023.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 202245
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
245 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...HEAVY RAIN IS IMPACTING THE COAST TODAY WITH
MODERATE RAINFALL EXTENDING INLAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
OR MORE AIMED AT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS ALONG
THE COAST HAVE RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE COASTAL CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON THE COAST.

ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA
OF MOISTURE WITH 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER EXTENDING
FROM THE OREGON COAST WESTWARD. AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET PROVIDES CONTINUED SUPPORT ALOFT, EXPECT
VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THROUGH
SUNDAY, HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES WITH MODERATE RAIN OVER THE INLAND WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.


MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH FORECAST PRECIPITATION FROM THE
CASCADES WEST. INTEGRATED VERTICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FORECAST BY
THE MODELS SUPPORTS VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH IVT VALUES
FORECAST TO EXCEED 600 KG/MS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
WITH PEAK VALUES AROUND 800 KG/MS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. SO HAVE RAISED THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH AROUND 4
TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 140 AND IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS.  ALONG THE COAST
EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 2.5 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH RAINFALL THAT HAS
ALREADY FALLEN ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND INTO JOSEPHINE AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. SMALL STREAM
FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. ALSO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES, LANDSLIDES OR OTHER
DEBRIS FLOW ON AREA ROADWAYS. GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
AND SUNDAY AND ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAY ALLOW
ADDITIONAL HAZARDS AS WINDS COMBINE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND BRING
LOWERED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TREES DOWN.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SUMMER LAKE AREA AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE
TO 60 MPH OR MORE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, EXPECT GUSTS TO
AROUND 70 MPH IN THE SUMMER LAKE AREA. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS OUT
FOR SUMMER LAKE AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER IN THE SHASTA VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT BUT CONTINUE EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY.

LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE VALUES
DECREASING AND 700 MB FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY THEN
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER AIR MASS
INTO THE AREA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH OVER THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE CHANGE TO NORTHERLY FLOW.

ON TUESDAY, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR EXTREME
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS SOME MODELS INDICATE A FRONT TO
THE NORTH MAY EXTEND INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... THE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY WILL SLIDE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC. THE AIR MASS PRECEDING THE
FRONT WILL BE QUITE WARM, WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE MOST AREA
PEAKS, BUT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF COLD AIR AS THE
FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE
SEASONALLY TYPICAL MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO RAINFALL
AMOUNT SHOULD NOT APPROACH VALUES SEEN WITH THE CURRENT WEEKEND
EVENT, BUT MODEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR THOSE THINKING OF THE APPROACHING HOLIDAY, YES THERE WILL BE
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE. HOWEVER,
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN, WITH SNOW LEVELS NOT
DROPPING FAR ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT AREA COVERAGE UNTIL MOST OF THE
MOISTURE HAS LEFT THE AREA. THE END RESULT WILL DEPEND GREATLY UPON
ONE`S LOCATION, WITH THE COAST AND THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS SEEING ONLY
RAIN, AND WAKING UP TO A WET CHRISTMAS MORNING. NOW THE GOOD NEWS,
FOR THOSE ABOVE 2500 TO 3000 FEET, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF FRESHLY
FALLEN SNOW CHRISTMAS MORNING, ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

UNFORTUNATELY, THIS ELEVATION ALSO INCLUDES MANY AREA PASSES,
INCLUDING SISKIYOU SUMMIT, SNOWMAN`S SUMMIT, BLACK BUTTE SUMMIT, AND
ALL OF THE CASCADE PASSES. LAST MINUTE TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD
BE IMPACTED, SO THOSE EXPECTING TO TRAVEL DURING THIS TIME SHOULD
STAY UPDATED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND KEEP AN EYE ON DOT ROAD
CONDITIONS.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS, THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY, ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS SWIFT MIDLEVEL FLOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE PUSHING MOISTURE
ONSHORE. THIS TIME OF YEAR, HIGH PRESSURE USUALLY RESULTS IN
SIGNIFICANT VALLEY FOG. WITH THAT IN MIND, THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED
TO APPROACH AND POSSIBLY CLEAR THE AREA WOULD BE ON SATURDAY,
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE NOT IN CLEAR AGREEMENT, NOR DO THEY SHOW A
STRONG FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE LOW, SO HAVE NOT ADDED MORE
THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 20/18Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT VFR
WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS EARLY TODAY TO DETERIORATE TO WIDESPREAD
MVFR WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...EXCEPT AT
THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE ENDING AT THE COAST AS WINDS BEGIN TO
SURFACE, BUT MAY CONTINUE AT KRBG THROUGH 15Z.
-BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014...WINDS HAVE DECREASED
BELOW GALES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY THEN REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL THROUGH
SUNDAY AS BOTH SWELL AND WIND WAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE WIND
WAVE COMPONENT WILL BE MUCH LESS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD
MAY BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. -WRIGHT



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ025-027-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ024-618-621.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ616-619-620.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ023.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 202245
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
245 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...HEAVY RAIN IS IMPACTING THE COAST TODAY WITH
MODERATE RAINFALL EXTENDING INLAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
OR MORE AIMED AT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS ALONG
THE COAST HAVE RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE COASTAL CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON THE COAST.

ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA
OF MOISTURE WITH 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER EXTENDING
FROM THE OREGON COAST WESTWARD. AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET PROVIDES CONTINUED SUPPORT ALOFT, EXPECT
VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THROUGH
SUNDAY, HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES WITH MODERATE RAIN OVER THE INLAND WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.


MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH FORECAST PRECIPITATION FROM THE
CASCADES WEST. INTEGRATED VERTICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FORECAST BY
THE MODELS SUPPORTS VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH IVT VALUES
FORECAST TO EXCEED 600 KG/MS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
WITH PEAK VALUES AROUND 800 KG/MS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. SO HAVE RAISED THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH AROUND 4
TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 140 AND IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS.  ALONG THE COAST
EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 2.5 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH RAINFALL THAT HAS
ALREADY FALLEN ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND INTO JOSEPHINE AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. SMALL STREAM
FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. ALSO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES, LANDSLIDES OR OTHER
DEBRIS FLOW ON AREA ROADWAYS. GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
AND SUNDAY AND ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAY ALLOW
ADDITIONAL HAZARDS AS WINDS COMBINE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND BRING
LOWERED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TREES DOWN.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SUMMER LAKE AREA AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE
TO 60 MPH OR MORE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, EXPECT GUSTS TO
AROUND 70 MPH IN THE SUMMER LAKE AREA. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS OUT
FOR SUMMER LAKE AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER IN THE SHASTA VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT BUT CONTINUE EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY.

LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE VALUES
DECREASING AND 700 MB FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY THEN
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER AIR MASS
INTO THE AREA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH OVER THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE CHANGE TO NORTHERLY FLOW.

ON TUESDAY, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR EXTREME
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS SOME MODELS INDICATE A FRONT TO
THE NORTH MAY EXTEND INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... THE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY WILL SLIDE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC. THE AIR MASS PRECEDING THE
FRONT WILL BE QUITE WARM, WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE MOST AREA
PEAKS, BUT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF COLD AIR AS THE
FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE
SEASONALLY TYPICAL MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO RAINFALL
AMOUNT SHOULD NOT APPROACH VALUES SEEN WITH THE CURRENT WEEKEND
EVENT, BUT MODEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR THOSE THINKING OF THE APPROACHING HOLIDAY, YES THERE WILL BE
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE. HOWEVER,
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN, WITH SNOW LEVELS NOT
DROPPING FAR ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT AREA COVERAGE UNTIL MOST OF THE
MOISTURE HAS LEFT THE AREA. THE END RESULT WILL DEPEND GREATLY UPON
ONE`S LOCATION, WITH THE COAST AND THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS SEEING ONLY
RAIN, AND WAKING UP TO A WET CHRISTMAS MORNING. NOW THE GOOD NEWS,
FOR THOSE ABOVE 2500 TO 3000 FEET, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF FRESHLY
FALLEN SNOW CHRISTMAS MORNING, ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

UNFORTUNATELY, THIS ELEVATION ALSO INCLUDES MANY AREA PASSES,
INCLUDING SISKIYOU SUMMIT, SNOWMAN`S SUMMIT, BLACK BUTTE SUMMIT, AND
ALL OF THE CASCADE PASSES. LAST MINUTE TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD
BE IMPACTED, SO THOSE EXPECTING TO TRAVEL DURING THIS TIME SHOULD
STAY UPDATED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND KEEP AN EYE ON DOT ROAD
CONDITIONS.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS, THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY, ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS SWIFT MIDLEVEL FLOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE PUSHING MOISTURE
ONSHORE. THIS TIME OF YEAR, HIGH PRESSURE USUALLY RESULTS IN
SIGNIFICANT VALLEY FOG. WITH THAT IN MIND, THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED
TO APPROACH AND POSSIBLY CLEAR THE AREA WOULD BE ON SATURDAY,
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE NOT IN CLEAR AGREEMENT, NOR DO THEY SHOW A
STRONG FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE LOW, SO HAVE NOT ADDED MORE
THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 20/18Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT VFR
WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS EARLY TODAY TO DETERIORATE TO WIDESPREAD
MVFR WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...EXCEPT AT
THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE ENDING AT THE COAST AS WINDS BEGIN TO
SURFACE, BUT MAY CONTINUE AT KRBG THROUGH 15Z.
-BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014...WINDS HAVE DECREASED
BELOW GALES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY THEN REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL THROUGH
SUNDAY AS BOTH SWELL AND WIND WAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE WIND
WAVE COMPONENT WILL BE MUCH LESS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD
MAY BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. -WRIGHT



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ025-027-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ024-618-621.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ616-619-620.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ023.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 202245
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
245 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...HEAVY RAIN IS IMPACTING THE COAST TODAY WITH
MODERATE RAINFALL EXTENDING INLAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
OR MORE AIMED AT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS ALONG
THE COAST HAVE RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE COASTAL CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON THE COAST.

ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA
OF MOISTURE WITH 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER EXTENDING
FROM THE OREGON COAST WESTWARD. AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET PROVIDES CONTINUED SUPPORT ALOFT, EXPECT
VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THROUGH
SUNDAY, HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES WITH MODERATE RAIN OVER THE INLAND WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.


MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH FORECAST PRECIPITATION FROM THE
CASCADES WEST. INTEGRATED VERTICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FORECAST BY
THE MODELS SUPPORTS VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH IVT VALUES
FORECAST TO EXCEED 600 KG/MS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
WITH PEAK VALUES AROUND 800 KG/MS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. SO HAVE RAISED THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH AROUND 4
TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 140 AND IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS.  ALONG THE COAST
EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 2.5 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH RAINFALL THAT HAS
ALREADY FALLEN ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND INTO JOSEPHINE AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. SMALL STREAM
FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. ALSO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES, LANDSLIDES OR OTHER
DEBRIS FLOW ON AREA ROADWAYS. GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
AND SUNDAY AND ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAY ALLOW
ADDITIONAL HAZARDS AS WINDS COMBINE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND BRING
LOWERED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TREES DOWN.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SUMMER LAKE AREA AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE
TO 60 MPH OR MORE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, EXPECT GUSTS TO
AROUND 70 MPH IN THE SUMMER LAKE AREA. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS OUT
FOR SUMMER LAKE AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER IN THE SHASTA VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT BUT CONTINUE EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY.

LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE VALUES
DECREASING AND 700 MB FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY THEN
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER AIR MASS
INTO THE AREA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH OVER THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE CHANGE TO NORTHERLY FLOW.

ON TUESDAY, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR EXTREME
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS SOME MODELS INDICATE A FRONT TO
THE NORTH MAY EXTEND INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... THE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY WILL SLIDE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC. THE AIR MASS PRECEDING THE
FRONT WILL BE QUITE WARM, WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE MOST AREA
PEAKS, BUT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF COLD AIR AS THE
FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE
SEASONALLY TYPICAL MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO RAINFALL
AMOUNT SHOULD NOT APPROACH VALUES SEEN WITH THE CURRENT WEEKEND
EVENT, BUT MODEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR THOSE THINKING OF THE APPROACHING HOLIDAY, YES THERE WILL BE
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE. HOWEVER,
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN, WITH SNOW LEVELS NOT
DROPPING FAR ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT AREA COVERAGE UNTIL MOST OF THE
MOISTURE HAS LEFT THE AREA. THE END RESULT WILL DEPEND GREATLY UPON
ONE`S LOCATION, WITH THE COAST AND THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS SEEING ONLY
RAIN, AND WAKING UP TO A WET CHRISTMAS MORNING. NOW THE GOOD NEWS,
FOR THOSE ABOVE 2500 TO 3000 FEET, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF FRESHLY
FALLEN SNOW CHRISTMAS MORNING, ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

UNFORTUNATELY, THIS ELEVATION ALSO INCLUDES MANY AREA PASSES,
INCLUDING SISKIYOU SUMMIT, SNOWMAN`S SUMMIT, BLACK BUTTE SUMMIT, AND
ALL OF THE CASCADE PASSES. LAST MINUTE TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD
BE IMPACTED, SO THOSE EXPECTING TO TRAVEL DURING THIS TIME SHOULD
STAY UPDATED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND KEEP AN EYE ON DOT ROAD
CONDITIONS.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS, THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY, ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS SWIFT MIDLEVEL FLOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE PUSHING MOISTURE
ONSHORE. THIS TIME OF YEAR, HIGH PRESSURE USUALLY RESULTS IN
SIGNIFICANT VALLEY FOG. WITH THAT IN MIND, THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED
TO APPROACH AND POSSIBLY CLEAR THE AREA WOULD BE ON SATURDAY,
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE NOT IN CLEAR AGREEMENT, NOR DO THEY SHOW A
STRONG FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE LOW, SO HAVE NOT ADDED MORE
THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 20/18Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT VFR
WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS EARLY TODAY TO DETERIORATE TO WIDESPREAD
MVFR WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...EXCEPT AT
THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE ENDING AT THE COAST AS WINDS BEGIN TO
SURFACE, BUT MAY CONTINUE AT KRBG THROUGH 15Z.
-BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014...WINDS HAVE DECREASED
BELOW GALES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY THEN REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL THROUGH
SUNDAY AS BOTH SWELL AND WIND WAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE WIND
WAVE COMPONENT WILL BE MUCH LESS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD
MAY BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. -WRIGHT



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ025-027-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ024-618-621.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ616-619-620.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ023.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC/BPN




000
FXUS66 KPDT 202243
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
243 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG AND WET
PACIFIC STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH AREAWIDE
THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY ACROSS THE
REGION. SNOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE TODAY, REMAINING BETWEEN
4300 TO 5000 FEET MSL OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTIONS HAVE
BEEN OVER WALLOWA COUNTY WHERE THE SNOW LEVELS ARE NOW NEAR 4000
FEET, AND OVER KITTITAS COUNTY WHERE THEY REMAIN BETWEEN 2100 AND
2500 FEET. WITH THE SNOW LEVELS LINGERING BELOW 3000 FEET OVER
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY INTO THE EVENING, HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM. SNOW LEVELS AREAWIDE SHOULD RISE THIS
EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS HAVE NOT
INCREASED AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED DUE TO THE PRECIP AND THE SLOW
ARRIVAL OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL CONTINUE ALL CURRENT WIND HIGHLIGHTS
THOUGH, AS STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. THE
FLOW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT TO BEING MORE WESTERLY. THIS
FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. AREAS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, AND THOSE PRONE
TO UPSLOPE AFFECTS, WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH CHANCES OF PRECIP LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE PRECIP CHANCES IN AREAS, SUCH AS
THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, WILL SEE LOWER PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE AFFECTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN AROUND 5000 FEET OR HIGHER
SUNDAY, THUS SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE, WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WIND DOWN OF THE PRECIP. 90

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ON MONDAY WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. ON WEDNESDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS WASHINGTON INTO OREGON WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH. HAVE INCREASED SNOW LEVELS
SLIGHTLY WITH RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 93

CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN AS
THE CHRISTMAS EVE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE LOWLAND AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW EXITS THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES...AND INTO
THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY DRY
OUT ACROSS ALL AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS GREAT DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS
AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AND HOW COLD IT WILL GET.
THE LATEST GFS MODEL IS EXTREMELY AGGRESSIVE WITH A COLD ARCTIC
INTRUSION...HOWEVER THE COLDEST AIR WOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS MOVING IN
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO EXIT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HAVE HEDGED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF BUT DECIDED TO UNDERCUT
POP ACROSS THE BASIN...KEEPING THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MOSTLY DRY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW ELSEWHERE. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY MFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND
BR. WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. WINDS COULD REACH
20-30KT WITH GUSTS TO 45KT FROM THE WSW AT KPDT, KALW, KRDM, AND
KBDN AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE RAIN SHADOWED WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. 93

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE OREGON CASCADES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 8000 FEET. THIS WILL PUSH
STREAMS AND RIVERS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF OREGON CASCADES TO
BANKFULL WITH FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER DESCHUTES. THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO GET HEAVY RAIN WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE LARGE RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FLOOD,
BUT SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE MINOR FLOODING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, COOLER AIR AND LESS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SEEN OVERNIGHT AND IT APPEARS MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER
SOUTH WITH NEWER FORECASTS COMING IN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE
NACHES RIVER. FLOOD WATCHES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AREAS COME IN FOCUS. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  58  38  48 /  90  80  40  10
ALW  49  58  40  49 /  90  90  50  10
PSC  48  58  37  49 /  80  40  10  10
YKM  40  54  35  45 /  80  30  20  10
HRI  48  59  37  52 /  80  50  20  10
ELN  39  49  34  43 / 100  40  20  10
RDM  46  57  35  47 /  80  70  20  10
LGD  44  53  37  46 / 100 100  80  20
GCD  43  46  36  47 / 100  80  60  20
DLS  45  56  39  51 / 100  80  30  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ORZ041-509>511.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ORZ049-050-502-503-505>508.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ044.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SUNDAY ORZ509.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ510-511.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ507.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ508.

WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WAZ024-026-027-520-521.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WAZ029-030.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ028.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ521.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ029.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ027.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR WESTERN
     KITTITAS COUNTY IN THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/93/89/93









000
FXUS65 KBOI 202206
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
306 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING HEAVY PCPN AND RISING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.  VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAINS SNOW WILL
BECOME ALL RAIN LATE TONIGHT BELOW 7000 FEET MSL.  VERY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE TO
ADVISORY SPEEDS SUNDAY IN ALL SOUTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING SRN PARTS
OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON...AND OYHWEE AND TWIN FALLS
COUNTIES IN IDAHO.  ALSO...AVALANCHE DANGER WILL BECOME HIGH SUNDAY
IN THE SAWTOOTH RECREATION AREA.  PCPN WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER WINDS CHANGE TO NORTHWESTERLY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
OFF THE COAST.  SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MONDAY WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF WINTER.  WINTER BEGINS AT 403 PM MST SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHERLY TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF
THE WEST COAST AMPLIFIES BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION.
THIS SETUP ALLOWS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...WELL EAST
OF THE AREA. TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST WILL TEMPORARILY DEFLECT THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BEFORE DROPPING CHRISTMAS DAY. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO THE
VALLEY FLOORS WITH THIS COLD FRONT...WITH A CHANCE OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DANCING AROUND
NORMAL. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW. TIMING OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL BRING ARE STILL
UNCLEAR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR IN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000FT RISING
TO 9000FT IN SE OREGON AND 7000 FT IN CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS...SW 10-20 KT IN SE OREGON...
SW 5-15KT IN IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND SE 10-15KT IN BAKER COUNTY...
THE MAGIC VALLEY...AND THE TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS IN SE OREGON WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO WESTERLY 15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 35KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 25-
35KT BECOMING NW 45-70 KT BY 00Z SUNDAY...STRONGEST IN OREGON...
THEN BECOMING NW 60-80KT BY 09Z SUN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ011.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY IDZ015-029-030.
     AVALANCHE WARNING IN THE SAWTOOTH RECREATION AREA FROM 5 AM MST
     SUNDAY UNTIL 730 AM MST MONDAY.
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ TO 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/
     SUNDAY ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA/AB
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 202206
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
306 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING HEAVY PCPN AND RISING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.  VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAINS SNOW WILL
BECOME ALL RAIN LATE TONIGHT BELOW 7000 FEET MSL.  VERY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE TO
ADVISORY SPEEDS SUNDAY IN ALL SOUTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING SRN PARTS
OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON...AND OYHWEE AND TWIN FALLS
COUNTIES IN IDAHO.  ALSO...AVALANCHE DANGER WILL BECOME HIGH SUNDAY
IN THE SAWTOOTH RECREATION AREA.  PCPN WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER WINDS CHANGE TO NORTHWESTERLY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
OFF THE COAST.  SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MONDAY WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF WINTER.  WINTER BEGINS AT 403 PM MST SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHERLY TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF
THE WEST COAST AMPLIFIES BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION.
THIS SETUP ALLOWS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...WELL EAST
OF THE AREA. TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST WILL TEMPORARILY DEFLECT THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BEFORE DROPPING CHRISTMAS DAY. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO THE
VALLEY FLOORS WITH THIS COLD FRONT...WITH A CHANCE OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DANCING AROUND
NORMAL. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW. TIMING OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL BRING ARE STILL
UNCLEAR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR IN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000FT RISING
TO 9000FT IN SE OREGON AND 7000 FT IN CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS...SW 10-20 KT IN SE OREGON...
SW 5-15KT IN IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND SE 10-15KT IN BAKER COUNTY...
THE MAGIC VALLEY...AND THE TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS IN SE OREGON WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO WESTERLY 15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 35KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 25-
35KT BECOMING NW 45-70 KT BY 00Z SUNDAY...STRONGEST IN OREGON...
THEN BECOMING NW 60-80KT BY 09Z SUN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ011.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY IDZ015-029-030.
     AVALANCHE WARNING IN THE SAWTOOTH RECREATION AREA FROM 5 AM MST
     SUNDAY UNTIL 730 AM MST MONDAY.
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ TO 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/
     SUNDAY ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA/AB
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS66 KPQR 201806
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1004 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
OR PLUME OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ALL AREAS WILL SEE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINS. THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD EASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A
COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH SNOW DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND COAST RANGE.
&&

.MORNING UPDATE...RAINFALL RATES HAVE PICKED UP SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT STREAMS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE ONSHORE. AMSU DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A PLUME
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25+ INCHES FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM. SO
FAR THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN ALONG THE OREGON COAST AND COAST
RANGE...WHERE IN GENERAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SO
FAR. THERE IS A POCKET OF EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE
WILSON AND NESTUCCA RIVER BASINS EAST OF TILLAMOOK. DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO THE PREDICTED RAINFALL TOTALS THIS MORNING AS THINGS
GENERALLY SEEM TO BE ON TRACK. THE MAIN FCST UPDATE WAS TO DECREASE
THE QPF FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TONIGHT AND SUN. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL LOSE SOME OF THE FORCING
WE ARE CURRENTLY RECEIVING FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE WARM FRONT.
THE WINDS WILL ALSO SWITCH FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. WITH THE
850 MB WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40 TO 50 KT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUN...THERE WILL BE VERY STRONG LIFT ALONG
THE COAST RANGE AND DOWNWARD MOTION ON THE LEE SIDE...WHICH SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. THE LATEST TOTAL QPF
FOR THE VALLEY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE VALLEY CLOSER TO THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WILL HANG ON THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE CASCADES
HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO LEAVE...AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING AS LOW AS 4000 TO 4500 FT ACCORDING TO SEVERAL OF THE
S WA CASCADE SNOTELS. WITH RADAR SHOWING FAIRLY HEAVY PRECIP NOW OVER
THE CASCADES...LOCATIONS THE HIGHER CASCADE PASSES MAY PICK UP
SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING SOONER RATHER THAN
LATER...WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING WELL ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT. PYLE

ALSO...INDIVIDUALS PLANNING TO BE ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST. THE LARGE...LONG
PERIOD SEAS WILL BRING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO THE SURF ZONE. ANYONE
ON BEACHES SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION AND REMAIN ALERT AS LARGE
WAVES MAY WASH ASHORE WITH LITTLE WARNING. LARGE WAVES MAY ALSO
CRASH OVER JETTIES AND SWEEP AWAY UNSUSPECTING BEACHGOERS AND STORM
WATCHERS. CULLEN

.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 258 AM SAT DEC 20...

.SHORT TERM...OUR WELL ADVERTISED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT HAS BEGUN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH OVERRUNNING RAIN
HAVING SPREAD ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG WARM
FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF WARM FRONTAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH
TODAY THAT WILL KEEP TODAY VERY WET...WITH A DECENT SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH MID DAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME RATHER
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WE MAY GET CLOSE TO HIGH WIND VALUES AT
THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...BUT WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
OF JUST BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

THE MAIN STORY THOUGH WILL BE THE RAIN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATER TODAY...SEVERAL MORE SURGES OF RAIN FOLLOW TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IN THE CONTINUED STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE LOWER LEVEL
FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AS WELL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND WE MAY
START TO SEE A BIT OF RAIN SHADOWING TO THE LEE OF THE COAST RANGE.
BUT THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUED TO HIT HARD BY THE
RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.

AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD START
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MANY AREA RIVERS BY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN MY MIND RIGHT NOW IS IF THERE WILL BE ANY LET
UP OR BREAKS IN THE HEAVY RAIN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATER TODAY AND BETWEEN ANY OF THE MOISTURE SURGES COMING IN TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY CONTROL HOW MANY RIVERS FLOOD AND
HOW HIGH THEY GET. NEVERTHELESS...THE HYDRO SECTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION WILL NOT BE UPDATED THIS MORNING AS IT STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE.

THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW STARTS TO BUCKLE LATE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE STARTS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...WHICH CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT IN OUR AREA IS THAT
IT WILL THE PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE COMING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DECREASE AS THE ONSHORE FLOW ABATES...THOUGH IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR ANY RIVERS THAT FLOOD TO REACT AND RECEDE.

WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR SNOW THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WARM FRONT. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD RISE AND THE SNOW TURN TO MOSTLY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OREGON CASCADES WILL SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW THIS MORNING AS WELL.
TOLLESON
&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS DIRTY
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND STARTS TO SHIFT INLAND. THIS MARKS THE NEXT
BEST SHOT FOR THE CASCADES TO FINALLY SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 2000 TO 2500 FT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. COLDER NORTH FLOW WILL FOLLOW
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL WELL BELOW NORMAL AS CONDITIONS DRY
OUT NEXT FRIDAY. /27
&&

.HYDROLOGY...A CLASSIC ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TYPE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS
UNDERWAY OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION INTO EARLY MONDAY. A VERY LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE WITH
ORIGINS WEST TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IS FEEDING INTO THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE REGION. A DEEP AND MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE FLOW FORECASTED TO
REMAIN PERPENDICULAR TO THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...EXPECT STRONG OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO
LEAD TO THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COAST
RANGE...FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IN THE RANGE OF
6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
LOWER BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT TOTALS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER
TERRAIN. PROJECTED RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST IS FORECASTED TO BE
AROUND 4 TO 8 INCHES. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS SHOULD SEE 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

GIVEN THE LATEST FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS...IT APPEARS THAT
THERE IS THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND ON
NUMEROUS RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES DRAINING THE COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES. A FEW RIVERS MAY EVEN REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. THE
CURRENT RIVER STAGE FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE FASTER RESPONDING
RIVERS COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. THERE ARE ALSO
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTS FROM URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND
FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING PASTURE LAND.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME TIDALLY INFLUENCE FLOODING CONCERNS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TIDE THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR TOKE POINT WILL LIKELY TOUCH JUST ABOVE 11 FT DUE TO A
TIDAL ANOMALY AROUND 1.5 FT. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE SOME
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW ISSUES FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.
HOWEVER...CONCERN REMAINS GREATER FOR HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR BOTH THE OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS GIVEN THAT ABUNDANT
RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY PUSH FLOWS ON COASTAL RIVERS
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER. SEVERAL COASTAL RIVERS WILL BE APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...SO SUSPECT THAT TIDAL
OVERFLOW CONCERNS MAY ENCOMPASS MANY COASTAL SPOTS. RIVERS LIKELY
REMAIN HIGH INTO MONDAY...SO THERE MAY BE IMPACTS AGAIN DURING HIGH
TIDES. ANY TIDAL OVERFLOW ISSUES THAT MATERIALIZE WILL LIKELY BE MOST
PREVALENT BETWEEN 9 AM AND 3 PM ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING CONCERNS...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CREATE LANDSLIDES...DEBRIS FLOWS...AND EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
IN THE VICINITY OF RECENT WILDFIRE BURN SCARS. BURN SCARS FROM TWO
LARGE FIRES THIS SUMMER...THE 36 PIT FIRE IN THE CLACKAMAS RIVER
BASIN NEAR ESTACADA AND THE DECEPTION COMPLEX NEAR OAKRIDGE...WILL
BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECASTS. RIVER FORECASTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR (ALL LOWER CASE).
PYLE/CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND IFR/MVFR AT THE COAST. TREND OF
INCREASINGLY MVFR OVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED RAIN...WITH POCKETS OF
IFR LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. EXPECT HIGHER
TERRAIN TO BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY
S WINDS ALONG THE COAST TO 35-45 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN
EASING TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS PREVAIL THIS EVENING...LIKELY
REMAINING NEAR 2000 FT. VIS WILL ALSO BECOME RESTRICTED...DOWN TO
3-4 SM BY 19Z THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
WITH HEAVIER RAIN CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
WITH INCREASING W-SW FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LLWS 21Z-03Z THIS EVENING. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY GALES ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER BURST OF STRONGER GALE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE COAST...BUT THINK THESE WILL BE LOCAL AND INFREQUENT AT MOST.
WINDS WILL EASE GRADUALLY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOLID SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL WINDS OVER THE WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO
EASE THROUGH DAY SUN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS FOR LATE
SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...TRENDING TO W OR NW.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 19 TO 21 FT OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD STAY IN THE RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...PERHAPS RUNNING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE FAR OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 15 FT BY EARLY SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. CULLEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWEST OREGON.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PST SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 201806
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1004 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
OR PLUME OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ALL AREAS WILL SEE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINS. THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD EASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A
COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH SNOW DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND COAST RANGE.
&&

.MORNING UPDATE...RAINFALL RATES HAVE PICKED UP SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT STREAMS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE ONSHORE. AMSU DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A PLUME
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25+ INCHES FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM. SO
FAR THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN ALONG THE OREGON COAST AND COAST
RANGE...WHERE IN GENERAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SO
FAR. THERE IS A POCKET OF EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE
WILSON AND NESTUCCA RIVER BASINS EAST OF TILLAMOOK. DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO THE PREDICTED RAINFALL TOTALS THIS MORNING AS THINGS
GENERALLY SEEM TO BE ON TRACK. THE MAIN FCST UPDATE WAS TO DECREASE
THE QPF FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TONIGHT AND SUN. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL LOSE SOME OF THE FORCING
WE ARE CURRENTLY RECEIVING FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE WARM FRONT.
THE WINDS WILL ALSO SWITCH FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. WITH THE
850 MB WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40 TO 50 KT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUN...THERE WILL BE VERY STRONG LIFT ALONG
THE COAST RANGE AND DOWNWARD MOTION ON THE LEE SIDE...WHICH SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. THE LATEST TOTAL QPF
FOR THE VALLEY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE VALLEY CLOSER TO THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WILL HANG ON THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE CASCADES
HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO LEAVE...AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING AS LOW AS 4000 TO 4500 FT ACCORDING TO SEVERAL OF THE
S WA CASCADE SNOTELS. WITH RADAR SHOWING FAIRLY HEAVY PRECIP NOW OVER
THE CASCADES...LOCATIONS THE HIGHER CASCADE PASSES MAY PICK UP
SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING SOONER RATHER THAN
LATER...WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING WELL ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT. PYLE

ALSO...INDIVIDUALS PLANNING TO BE ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST. THE LARGE...LONG
PERIOD SEAS WILL BRING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO THE SURF ZONE. ANYONE
ON BEACHES SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION AND REMAIN ALERT AS LARGE
WAVES MAY WASH ASHORE WITH LITTLE WARNING. LARGE WAVES MAY ALSO
CRASH OVER JETTIES AND SWEEP AWAY UNSUSPECTING BEACHGOERS AND STORM
WATCHERS. CULLEN

.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 258 AM SAT DEC 20...

.SHORT TERM...OUR WELL ADVERTISED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT HAS BEGUN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH OVERRUNNING RAIN
HAVING SPREAD ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG WARM
FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF WARM FRONTAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH
TODAY THAT WILL KEEP TODAY VERY WET...WITH A DECENT SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH MID DAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME RATHER
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WE MAY GET CLOSE TO HIGH WIND VALUES AT
THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...BUT WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
OF JUST BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

THE MAIN STORY THOUGH WILL BE THE RAIN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATER TODAY...SEVERAL MORE SURGES OF RAIN FOLLOW TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IN THE CONTINUED STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE LOWER LEVEL
FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AS WELL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND WE MAY
START TO SEE A BIT OF RAIN SHADOWING TO THE LEE OF THE COAST RANGE.
BUT THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUED TO HIT HARD BY THE
RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.

AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD START
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MANY AREA RIVERS BY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN MY MIND RIGHT NOW IS IF THERE WILL BE ANY LET
UP OR BREAKS IN THE HEAVY RAIN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATER TODAY AND BETWEEN ANY OF THE MOISTURE SURGES COMING IN TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY CONTROL HOW MANY RIVERS FLOOD AND
HOW HIGH THEY GET. NEVERTHELESS...THE HYDRO SECTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION WILL NOT BE UPDATED THIS MORNING AS IT STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE.

THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW STARTS TO BUCKLE LATE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE STARTS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...WHICH CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT IN OUR AREA IS THAT
IT WILL THE PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE COMING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DECREASE AS THE ONSHORE FLOW ABATES...THOUGH IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR ANY RIVERS THAT FLOOD TO REACT AND RECEDE.

WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR SNOW THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WARM FRONT. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD RISE AND THE SNOW TURN TO MOSTLY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OREGON CASCADES WILL SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW THIS MORNING AS WELL.
TOLLESON
&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS DIRTY
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND STARTS TO SHIFT INLAND. THIS MARKS THE NEXT
BEST SHOT FOR THE CASCADES TO FINALLY SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 2000 TO 2500 FT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. COLDER NORTH FLOW WILL FOLLOW
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL WELL BELOW NORMAL AS CONDITIONS DRY
OUT NEXT FRIDAY. /27
&&

.HYDROLOGY...A CLASSIC ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TYPE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS
UNDERWAY OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION INTO EARLY MONDAY. A VERY LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE WITH
ORIGINS WEST TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IS FEEDING INTO THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE REGION. A DEEP AND MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE FLOW FORECASTED TO
REMAIN PERPENDICULAR TO THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...EXPECT STRONG OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO
LEAD TO THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COAST
RANGE...FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IN THE RANGE OF
6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
LOWER BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT TOTALS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER
TERRAIN. PROJECTED RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST IS FORECASTED TO BE
AROUND 4 TO 8 INCHES. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS SHOULD SEE 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

GIVEN THE LATEST FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS...IT APPEARS THAT
THERE IS THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND ON
NUMEROUS RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES DRAINING THE COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES. A FEW RIVERS MAY EVEN REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. THE
CURRENT RIVER STAGE FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE FASTER RESPONDING
RIVERS COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. THERE ARE ALSO
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTS FROM URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND
FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING PASTURE LAND.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME TIDALLY INFLUENCE FLOODING CONCERNS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TIDE THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR TOKE POINT WILL LIKELY TOUCH JUST ABOVE 11 FT DUE TO A
TIDAL ANOMALY AROUND 1.5 FT. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE SOME
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW ISSUES FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.
HOWEVER...CONCERN REMAINS GREATER FOR HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR BOTH THE OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS GIVEN THAT ABUNDANT
RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY PUSH FLOWS ON COASTAL RIVERS
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER. SEVERAL COASTAL RIVERS WILL BE APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...SO SUSPECT THAT TIDAL
OVERFLOW CONCERNS MAY ENCOMPASS MANY COASTAL SPOTS. RIVERS LIKELY
REMAIN HIGH INTO MONDAY...SO THERE MAY BE IMPACTS AGAIN DURING HIGH
TIDES. ANY TIDAL OVERFLOW ISSUES THAT MATERIALIZE WILL LIKELY BE MOST
PREVALENT BETWEEN 9 AM AND 3 PM ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING CONCERNS...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CREATE LANDSLIDES...DEBRIS FLOWS...AND EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
IN THE VICINITY OF RECENT WILDFIRE BURN SCARS. BURN SCARS FROM TWO
LARGE FIRES THIS SUMMER...THE 36 PIT FIRE IN THE CLACKAMAS RIVER
BASIN NEAR ESTACADA AND THE DECEPTION COMPLEX NEAR OAKRIDGE...WILL
BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECASTS. RIVER FORECASTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR (ALL LOWER CASE).
PYLE/CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND IFR/MVFR AT THE COAST. TREND OF
INCREASINGLY MVFR OVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED RAIN...WITH POCKETS OF
IFR LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. EXPECT HIGHER
TERRAIN TO BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY
S WINDS ALONG THE COAST TO 35-45 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN
EASING TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS PREVAIL THIS EVENING...LIKELY
REMAINING NEAR 2000 FT. VIS WILL ALSO BECOME RESTRICTED...DOWN TO
3-4 SM BY 19Z THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
WITH HEAVIER RAIN CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
WITH INCREASING W-SW FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LLWS 21Z-03Z THIS EVENING. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY GALES ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER BURST OF STRONGER GALE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE COAST...BUT THINK THESE WILL BE LOCAL AND INFREQUENT AT MOST.
WINDS WILL EASE GRADUALLY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOLID SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL WINDS OVER THE WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO
EASE THROUGH DAY SUN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS FOR LATE
SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...TRENDING TO W OR NW.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 19 TO 21 FT OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD STAY IN THE RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...PERHAPS RUNNING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE FAR OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 15 FT BY EARLY SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. CULLEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWEST OREGON.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PST SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 201806
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1004 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
OR PLUME OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ALL AREAS WILL SEE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINS. THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD EASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A
COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH SNOW DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND COAST RANGE.
&&

.MORNING UPDATE...RAINFALL RATES HAVE PICKED UP SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT STREAMS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE ONSHORE. AMSU DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A PLUME
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25+ INCHES FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM. SO
FAR THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN ALONG THE OREGON COAST AND COAST
RANGE...WHERE IN GENERAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SO
FAR. THERE IS A POCKET OF EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE
WILSON AND NESTUCCA RIVER BASINS EAST OF TILLAMOOK. DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO THE PREDICTED RAINFALL TOTALS THIS MORNING AS THINGS
GENERALLY SEEM TO BE ON TRACK. THE MAIN FCST UPDATE WAS TO DECREASE
THE QPF FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TONIGHT AND SUN. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL LOSE SOME OF THE FORCING
WE ARE CURRENTLY RECEIVING FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE WARM FRONT.
THE WINDS WILL ALSO SWITCH FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. WITH THE
850 MB WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40 TO 50 KT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUN...THERE WILL BE VERY STRONG LIFT ALONG
THE COAST RANGE AND DOWNWARD MOTION ON THE LEE SIDE...WHICH SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. THE LATEST TOTAL QPF
FOR THE VALLEY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE VALLEY CLOSER TO THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WILL HANG ON THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE CASCADES
HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO LEAVE...AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING AS LOW AS 4000 TO 4500 FT ACCORDING TO SEVERAL OF THE
S WA CASCADE SNOTELS. WITH RADAR SHOWING FAIRLY HEAVY PRECIP NOW OVER
THE CASCADES...LOCATIONS THE HIGHER CASCADE PASSES MAY PICK UP
SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING SOONER RATHER THAN
LATER...WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING WELL ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT. PYLE

ALSO...INDIVIDUALS PLANNING TO BE ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST. THE LARGE...LONG
PERIOD SEAS WILL BRING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO THE SURF ZONE. ANYONE
ON BEACHES SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION AND REMAIN ALERT AS LARGE
WAVES MAY WASH ASHORE WITH LITTLE WARNING. LARGE WAVES MAY ALSO
CRASH OVER JETTIES AND SWEEP AWAY UNSUSPECTING BEACHGOERS AND STORM
WATCHERS. CULLEN

.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 258 AM SAT DEC 20...

.SHORT TERM...OUR WELL ADVERTISED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT HAS BEGUN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH OVERRUNNING RAIN
HAVING SPREAD ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG WARM
FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF WARM FRONTAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH
TODAY THAT WILL KEEP TODAY VERY WET...WITH A DECENT SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH MID DAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME RATHER
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WE MAY GET CLOSE TO HIGH WIND VALUES AT
THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...BUT WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
OF JUST BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

THE MAIN STORY THOUGH WILL BE THE RAIN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATER TODAY...SEVERAL MORE SURGES OF RAIN FOLLOW TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IN THE CONTINUED STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE LOWER LEVEL
FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AS WELL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND WE MAY
START TO SEE A BIT OF RAIN SHADOWING TO THE LEE OF THE COAST RANGE.
BUT THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUED TO HIT HARD BY THE
RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.

AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD START
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MANY AREA RIVERS BY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN MY MIND RIGHT NOW IS IF THERE WILL BE ANY LET
UP OR BREAKS IN THE HEAVY RAIN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATER TODAY AND BETWEEN ANY OF THE MOISTURE SURGES COMING IN TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY CONTROL HOW MANY RIVERS FLOOD AND
HOW HIGH THEY GET. NEVERTHELESS...THE HYDRO SECTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION WILL NOT BE UPDATED THIS MORNING AS IT STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE.

THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW STARTS TO BUCKLE LATE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE STARTS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...WHICH CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT IN OUR AREA IS THAT
IT WILL THE PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE COMING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DECREASE AS THE ONSHORE FLOW ABATES...THOUGH IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR ANY RIVERS THAT FLOOD TO REACT AND RECEDE.

WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR SNOW THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WARM FRONT. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD RISE AND THE SNOW TURN TO MOSTLY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OREGON CASCADES WILL SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW THIS MORNING AS WELL.
TOLLESON
&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS DIRTY
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND STARTS TO SHIFT INLAND. THIS MARKS THE NEXT
BEST SHOT FOR THE CASCADES TO FINALLY SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 2000 TO 2500 FT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. COLDER NORTH FLOW WILL FOLLOW
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL WELL BELOW NORMAL AS CONDITIONS DRY
OUT NEXT FRIDAY. /27
&&

.HYDROLOGY...A CLASSIC ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TYPE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS
UNDERWAY OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION INTO EARLY MONDAY. A VERY LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE WITH
ORIGINS WEST TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IS FEEDING INTO THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE REGION. A DEEP AND MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE FLOW FORECASTED TO
REMAIN PERPENDICULAR TO THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...EXPECT STRONG OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO
LEAD TO THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COAST
RANGE...FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IN THE RANGE OF
6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
LOWER BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT TOTALS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER
TERRAIN. PROJECTED RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST IS FORECASTED TO BE
AROUND 4 TO 8 INCHES. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS SHOULD SEE 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

GIVEN THE LATEST FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS...IT APPEARS THAT
THERE IS THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND ON
NUMEROUS RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES DRAINING THE COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES. A FEW RIVERS MAY EVEN REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. THE
CURRENT RIVER STAGE FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE FASTER RESPONDING
RIVERS COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. THERE ARE ALSO
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTS FROM URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND
FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING PASTURE LAND.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME TIDALLY INFLUENCE FLOODING CONCERNS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TIDE THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR TOKE POINT WILL LIKELY TOUCH JUST ABOVE 11 FT DUE TO A
TIDAL ANOMALY AROUND 1.5 FT. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE SOME
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW ISSUES FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.
HOWEVER...CONCERN REMAINS GREATER FOR HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR BOTH THE OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS GIVEN THAT ABUNDANT
RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY PUSH FLOWS ON COASTAL RIVERS
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER. SEVERAL COASTAL RIVERS WILL BE APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...SO SUSPECT THAT TIDAL
OVERFLOW CONCERNS MAY ENCOMPASS MANY COASTAL SPOTS. RIVERS LIKELY
REMAIN HIGH INTO MONDAY...SO THERE MAY BE IMPACTS AGAIN DURING HIGH
TIDES. ANY TIDAL OVERFLOW ISSUES THAT MATERIALIZE WILL LIKELY BE MOST
PREVALENT BETWEEN 9 AM AND 3 PM ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING CONCERNS...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CREATE LANDSLIDES...DEBRIS FLOWS...AND EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
IN THE VICINITY OF RECENT WILDFIRE BURN SCARS. BURN SCARS FROM TWO
LARGE FIRES THIS SUMMER...THE 36 PIT FIRE IN THE CLACKAMAS RIVER
BASIN NEAR ESTACADA AND THE DECEPTION COMPLEX NEAR OAKRIDGE...WILL
BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECASTS. RIVER FORECASTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR (ALL LOWER CASE).
PYLE/CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND IFR/MVFR AT THE COAST. TREND OF
INCREASINGLY MVFR OVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED RAIN...WITH POCKETS OF
IFR LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. EXPECT HIGHER
TERRAIN TO BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY
S WINDS ALONG THE COAST TO 35-45 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN
EASING TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS PREVAIL THIS EVENING...LIKELY
REMAINING NEAR 2000 FT. VIS WILL ALSO BECOME RESTRICTED...DOWN TO
3-4 SM BY 19Z THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
WITH HEAVIER RAIN CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
WITH INCREASING W-SW FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LLWS 21Z-03Z THIS EVENING. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY GALES ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER BURST OF STRONGER GALE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE COAST...BUT THINK THESE WILL BE LOCAL AND INFREQUENT AT MOST.
WINDS WILL EASE GRADUALLY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOLID SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL WINDS OVER THE WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO
EASE THROUGH DAY SUN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS FOR LATE
SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...TRENDING TO W OR NW.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 19 TO 21 FT OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD STAY IN THE RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...PERHAPS RUNNING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE FAR OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 15 FT BY EARLY SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. CULLEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWEST OREGON.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PST SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 201806
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1004 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
OR PLUME OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ALL AREAS WILL SEE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINS. THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD EASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A
COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH SNOW DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND COAST RANGE.
&&

.MORNING UPDATE...RAINFALL RATES HAVE PICKED UP SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT STREAMS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE ONSHORE. AMSU DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A PLUME
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25+ INCHES FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM. SO
FAR THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN ALONG THE OREGON COAST AND COAST
RANGE...WHERE IN GENERAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SO
FAR. THERE IS A POCKET OF EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE
WILSON AND NESTUCCA RIVER BASINS EAST OF TILLAMOOK. DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO THE PREDICTED RAINFALL TOTALS THIS MORNING AS THINGS
GENERALLY SEEM TO BE ON TRACK. THE MAIN FCST UPDATE WAS TO DECREASE
THE QPF FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TONIGHT AND SUN. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL LOSE SOME OF THE FORCING
WE ARE CURRENTLY RECEIVING FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE WARM FRONT.
THE WINDS WILL ALSO SWITCH FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. WITH THE
850 MB WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40 TO 50 KT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUN...THERE WILL BE VERY STRONG LIFT ALONG
THE COAST RANGE AND DOWNWARD MOTION ON THE LEE SIDE...WHICH SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. THE LATEST TOTAL QPF
FOR THE VALLEY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE VALLEY CLOSER TO THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WILL HANG ON THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE CASCADES
HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO LEAVE...AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING AS LOW AS 4000 TO 4500 FT ACCORDING TO SEVERAL OF THE
S WA CASCADE SNOTELS. WITH RADAR SHOWING FAIRLY HEAVY PRECIP NOW OVER
THE CASCADES...LOCATIONS THE HIGHER CASCADE PASSES MAY PICK UP
SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING SOONER RATHER THAN
LATER...WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING WELL ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT. PYLE

ALSO...INDIVIDUALS PLANNING TO BE ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST. THE LARGE...LONG
PERIOD SEAS WILL BRING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO THE SURF ZONE. ANYONE
ON BEACHES SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION AND REMAIN ALERT AS LARGE
WAVES MAY WASH ASHORE WITH LITTLE WARNING. LARGE WAVES MAY ALSO
CRASH OVER JETTIES AND SWEEP AWAY UNSUSPECTING BEACHGOERS AND STORM
WATCHERS. CULLEN

.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 258 AM SAT DEC 20...

.SHORT TERM...OUR WELL ADVERTISED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT HAS BEGUN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH OVERRUNNING RAIN
HAVING SPREAD ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG WARM
FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF WARM FRONTAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH
TODAY THAT WILL KEEP TODAY VERY WET...WITH A DECENT SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH MID DAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME RATHER
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WE MAY GET CLOSE TO HIGH WIND VALUES AT
THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...BUT WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
OF JUST BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

THE MAIN STORY THOUGH WILL BE THE RAIN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATER TODAY...SEVERAL MORE SURGES OF RAIN FOLLOW TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IN THE CONTINUED STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE LOWER LEVEL
FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AS WELL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND WE MAY
START TO SEE A BIT OF RAIN SHADOWING TO THE LEE OF THE COAST RANGE.
BUT THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUED TO HIT HARD BY THE
RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.

AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD START
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MANY AREA RIVERS BY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN MY MIND RIGHT NOW IS IF THERE WILL BE ANY LET
UP OR BREAKS IN THE HEAVY RAIN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATER TODAY AND BETWEEN ANY OF THE MOISTURE SURGES COMING IN TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY CONTROL HOW MANY RIVERS FLOOD AND
HOW HIGH THEY GET. NEVERTHELESS...THE HYDRO SECTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION WILL NOT BE UPDATED THIS MORNING AS IT STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE.

THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW STARTS TO BUCKLE LATE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE STARTS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...WHICH CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT IN OUR AREA IS THAT
IT WILL THE PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE COMING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DECREASE AS THE ONSHORE FLOW ABATES...THOUGH IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR ANY RIVERS THAT FLOOD TO REACT AND RECEDE.

WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR SNOW THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WARM FRONT. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD RISE AND THE SNOW TURN TO MOSTLY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OREGON CASCADES WILL SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW THIS MORNING AS WELL.
TOLLESON
&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS DIRTY
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND STARTS TO SHIFT INLAND. THIS MARKS THE NEXT
BEST SHOT FOR THE CASCADES TO FINALLY SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 2000 TO 2500 FT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. COLDER NORTH FLOW WILL FOLLOW
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL WELL BELOW NORMAL AS CONDITIONS DRY
OUT NEXT FRIDAY. /27
&&

.HYDROLOGY...A CLASSIC ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TYPE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS
UNDERWAY OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION INTO EARLY MONDAY. A VERY LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE WITH
ORIGINS WEST TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IS FEEDING INTO THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE REGION. A DEEP AND MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE FLOW FORECASTED TO
REMAIN PERPENDICULAR TO THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...EXPECT STRONG OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO
LEAD TO THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COAST
RANGE...FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IN THE RANGE OF
6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
LOWER BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT TOTALS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER
TERRAIN. PROJECTED RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST IS FORECASTED TO BE
AROUND 4 TO 8 INCHES. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS SHOULD SEE 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

GIVEN THE LATEST FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS...IT APPEARS THAT
THERE IS THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND ON
NUMEROUS RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES DRAINING THE COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES. A FEW RIVERS MAY EVEN REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. THE
CURRENT RIVER STAGE FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE FASTER RESPONDING
RIVERS COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. THERE ARE ALSO
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTS FROM URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND
FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING PASTURE LAND.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME TIDALLY INFLUENCE FLOODING CONCERNS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TIDE THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR TOKE POINT WILL LIKELY TOUCH JUST ABOVE 11 FT DUE TO A
TIDAL ANOMALY AROUND 1.5 FT. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE SOME
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW ISSUES FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.
HOWEVER...CONCERN REMAINS GREATER FOR HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR BOTH THE OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS GIVEN THAT ABUNDANT
RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY PUSH FLOWS ON COASTAL RIVERS
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER. SEVERAL COASTAL RIVERS WILL BE APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...SO SUSPECT THAT TIDAL
OVERFLOW CONCERNS MAY ENCOMPASS MANY COASTAL SPOTS. RIVERS LIKELY
REMAIN HIGH INTO MONDAY...SO THERE MAY BE IMPACTS AGAIN DURING HIGH
TIDES. ANY TIDAL OVERFLOW ISSUES THAT MATERIALIZE WILL LIKELY BE MOST
PREVALENT BETWEEN 9 AM AND 3 PM ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING CONCERNS...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CREATE LANDSLIDES...DEBRIS FLOWS...AND EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
IN THE VICINITY OF RECENT WILDFIRE BURN SCARS. BURN SCARS FROM TWO
LARGE FIRES THIS SUMMER...THE 36 PIT FIRE IN THE CLACKAMAS RIVER
BASIN NEAR ESTACADA AND THE DECEPTION COMPLEX NEAR OAKRIDGE...WILL
BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECASTS. RIVER FORECASTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR (ALL LOWER CASE).
PYLE/CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND IFR/MVFR AT THE COAST. TREND OF
INCREASINGLY MVFR OVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED RAIN...WITH POCKETS OF
IFR LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. EXPECT HIGHER
TERRAIN TO BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY
S WINDS ALONG THE COAST TO 35-45 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN
EASING TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS PREVAIL THIS EVENING...LIKELY
REMAINING NEAR 2000 FT. VIS WILL ALSO BECOME RESTRICTED...DOWN TO
3-4 SM BY 19Z THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
WITH HEAVIER RAIN CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
WITH INCREASING W-SW FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LLWS 21Z-03Z THIS EVENING. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY GALES ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER BURST OF STRONGER GALE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE COAST...BUT THINK THESE WILL BE LOCAL AND INFREQUENT AT MOST.
WINDS WILL EASE GRADUALLY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOLID SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL WINDS OVER THE WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO
EASE THROUGH DAY SUN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS FOR LATE
SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...TRENDING TO W OR NW.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 19 TO 21 FT OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD STAY IN THE RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...PERHAPS RUNNING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE FAR OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 15 FT BY EARLY SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. CULLEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWEST OREGON.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PST SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 201805
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1005 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A STRONG AND VERY WET PACIFIC STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY, THEN WORK IT`S WAY OUT
ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS. CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS STILL LOOK FINE, BUT DID
ADD A HIGH WIND WARNING TO THE OREGON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. AS SUCH
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS ALONG THE OREGON CASCADE EAST SLOPES, AND
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE. SNOW LEVELS THIS MORNING ARE
RUNNING AROUND 2500 FEET OVER YAKIMA AND KITTITAS COUNTIES. SNOW
LEVELS IS THESE COUNTIES WILL RISE TO AT LEAST 3000 FEET BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THUS WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER WESTERN
KITTITAS COUNTY CONTINUE TO NOON. SNOW LEVELS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN
4000 AND 4500 FEET ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN WALLOWA COUNTY WHERE THEY
ARE NEAR 3000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BY AT LEAST 1000 FEET
THROUGH TODAY. OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A
CHANCE OF VALLEY FOG. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE
GFS HAS SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN A BIT WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 12 HRS
FASTER. BOTH MODELS HAVE REDUCED THE ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE TURNING COLDER BY CHRISTMAS
DAY BUT ALSO DRIER. THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS WEDNESDAY SO
THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MOSTLY
MFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND BR. RAIN WILL TAPER
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.
WINDS COULD REACH 20-30KT WITH GUSTS TO 45KT FROM THE WSW AT KPDT,
KALW, KRDM, AND KBDN AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. 93

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE OREGON CASCADES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 8000 FEET. THIS WILL PUSH
STREAMS AND RIVERS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF OREGON CASCADES TO
BANKFULL WITH FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER DESCHUTES. THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO GET HEAVY RAIN WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE LARGE RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FLOOD,
BUT SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE MINOR FLOODING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, COOLER AIR AND LESS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SEEN OVERNIGHT AND IT APPEARS MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER
SOUTH WITH NEWER FORECASTS COMING IN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE
NACHES RIVER. FLOOD WATCHES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AREAS COME IN FOCUS. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  46  57  39 /  90  90  80  50
ALW  51  44  56  39 /  90 100  90  60
PSC  49  42  55  39 /  90  80  40  10
YKM  43  35  50  34 /  90  80  40  20
HRI  51  43  56  41 /  90  80  50  20
ELN  42  33  46  32 /  90 100  60  20
RDM  49  41  53  40 /  90  80  70  20
LGD  43  39  47  38 /  90 100 100  80
GCD  43  41  46  41 /  90 100  80  60
DLS  49  43  52  41 /  90 100  90  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON ORZ041-509>511.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON ORZ049-050-502-503-505>508.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ044.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SUNDAY ORZ509.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ510-511.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ507.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ508.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON WAZ024-026-027-520-521.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON WAZ029-030.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ028.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ521.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ029.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ027.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY IN THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/78/93







000
FXUS66 KPDT 201805
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1005 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A STRONG AND VERY WET PACIFIC STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY, THEN WORK IT`S WAY OUT
ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS. CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS STILL LOOK FINE, BUT DID
ADD A HIGH WIND WARNING TO THE OREGON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. AS SUCH
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS ALONG THE OREGON CASCADE EAST SLOPES, AND
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE. SNOW LEVELS THIS MORNING ARE
RUNNING AROUND 2500 FEET OVER YAKIMA AND KITTITAS COUNTIES. SNOW
LEVELS IS THESE COUNTIES WILL RISE TO AT LEAST 3000 FEET BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THUS WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER WESTERN
KITTITAS COUNTY CONTINUE TO NOON. SNOW LEVELS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN
4000 AND 4500 FEET ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN WALLOWA COUNTY WHERE THEY
ARE NEAR 3000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BY AT LEAST 1000 FEET
THROUGH TODAY. OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A
CHANCE OF VALLEY FOG. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE
GFS HAS SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN A BIT WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 12 HRS
FASTER. BOTH MODELS HAVE REDUCED THE ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE TURNING COLDER BY CHRISTMAS
DAY BUT ALSO DRIER. THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS WEDNESDAY SO
THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MOSTLY
MFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND BR. RAIN WILL TAPER
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.
WINDS COULD REACH 20-30KT WITH GUSTS TO 45KT FROM THE WSW AT KPDT,
KALW, KRDM, AND KBDN AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. 93

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE OREGON CASCADES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 8000 FEET. THIS WILL PUSH
STREAMS AND RIVERS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF OREGON CASCADES TO
BANKFULL WITH FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER DESCHUTES. THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO GET HEAVY RAIN WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE LARGE RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FLOOD,
BUT SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE MINOR FLOODING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, COOLER AIR AND LESS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SEEN OVERNIGHT AND IT APPEARS MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER
SOUTH WITH NEWER FORECASTS COMING IN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE
NACHES RIVER. FLOOD WATCHES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AREAS COME IN FOCUS. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  46  57  39 /  90  90  80  50
ALW  51  44  56  39 /  90 100  90  60
PSC  49  42  55  39 /  90  80  40  10
YKM  43  35  50  34 /  90  80  40  20
HRI  51  43  56  41 /  90  80  50  20
ELN  42  33  46  32 /  90 100  60  20
RDM  49  41  53  40 /  90  80  70  20
LGD  43  39  47  38 /  90 100 100  80
GCD  43  41  46  41 /  90 100  80  60
DLS  49  43  52  41 /  90 100  90  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON ORZ041-509>511.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON ORZ049-050-502-503-505>508.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ044.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SUNDAY ORZ509.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ510-511.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ507.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ508.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON WAZ024-026-027-520-521.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON WAZ029-030.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ028.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ521.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ029.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ027.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY IN THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/78/93








000
FXUS66 KMFR 201715
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
915 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS
BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5
TO 1.75 INCHES. THIS AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS WEST-NORTHWEST
OFF MUCH OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, COAST MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES TODAY AND SUNDAY. VALLEY
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE MODERATE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. FURTHER SOUTH IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS ARE RISING THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET OR HIGHER FROM THE CASCADES WEST AND
AROUND 5000 TO 5500 FT EAST OF THE CASCADES. THESE SNOW LEVELS
WILL RISE FURTHER TO 8000 TO 9000 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR MOST
AREAS.

HEAVY RAINFALL WITH BRING FLOODING POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY TO THE
COAST, JUST INLAND TO PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE COUNTY, DOUGLAS COUNTY
AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. THE MAIN FLOOD IMPACTS
FOR THESE AREAS ARE SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING, PONDING ON
ROADWAYS, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES OR DEBRIS FLOWS. STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND
COAST MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES
AND DOUGLAS FOOTHILLS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE. AREAS INLAND WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON ARE
FORECAST TO RECEIVE AROUND 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM TODAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST, IN THE
MOUNTAINS, FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND INTO THE SHASTA
VALLEY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE INCREASING IN MANY OF THESE
AREAS THIS MORNING AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECT FOR MOST
COAST AREAS. IN THE MOUNTAINS MUCH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO FOR WINDS
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. EAST OF THE CASCADES
ALSO EXPECT VERY GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SUMMER LAKE
AREA. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS, MAY NEED TO
INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR MORE IN THE SUMMER LAKE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHEN WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AND MOVE INTO THAT ARE. WILL EVALUATE THIS AND UPDATE AS
NEEDED.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/12Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS/VIS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED.
LOCAL IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...EXCEPT AT THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL RISE
TO AROUND 9000 FEET SATURDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE ENDING AT THE COAST AS WINDS
BEGIN TO SURFACE, BUT MAY CONTINUE AT KRBG THROUGH 15Z. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TODAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP
COMBINED SEAS GOING EVEN AS SWELL DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT MODERATE SWELL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN WIND WAVES. -WRIGHT/CC




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT IS UNDERWAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF DEEP
MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST TO NEARLY 3000 MILES
OFFSHORE...POINTED AT THE OREGON COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE COAST...COAST RANGE...CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOUT 5500 FEET AND ARE RISING...SO THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT. ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE DANGEROUS SEAS...HIGH SURF AT THE COAST...AND
GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST
SIDE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT PICTURE...OVER THE PAST
4 RUNS AT LEAST...OF 48 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES OVER
THE CASCADES AND 4-5 INCHES AT THE COAST. WE HAVE ENSURED THAT THE
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...WITH SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL IN THE MOST
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CURRY COUNTY COAST AND
THE HIGH CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.

SOME CONFIDENCE TOOLS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE NUMBERS THIS
MORNING...WITH IVT VALUES OF 500 KG/M/S FOR 24 HOURS STRAIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE IVT...OR INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT...VALUES WHICH SUGGESTS HOW SIGNIFICANT THE MOISTURE IS
OVER THE REGION...ARE PEAKING AT VALUES THAT ONLY OCCUR ONCE EVERY 5-
10 YEARS OVER THE CASCADES...AND ONCE EVERY 2-5 YEARS AT THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR DURATION OF THESE HIGH VALUES MEANS THIS EVENT
COULD EVEN BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.

SO...WITH ALL THAT SAID...HAVE ADDED SOME AREAL FLOOD WATCHES TO
BOTH EASTERN CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD. THESE ARE IN
ADDITION TO AREAL FLOOD WATCHES THAT COVER THE COAST AND JUST INLAND
AT FFAMFR. THE CONCERNS HERE ARE NOT ONLY FOR
MUDSLIDES...ROCKSLIDES...AND LANDSLIDES...BUT ALSO FOR STREAMS
FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING WITH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
EXPECTED AT LEAST. TRAVELING TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL BE DIFFICULT
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE MAIN STEM
RIVER THAT IS FORECAST TO OVERFLOW ITS BANKS IS THE COQUILLE AT
COQUILLE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE RIVERS CERTAINLY WILL NEAR FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS
SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST THIS MORNING...SHASTA
VALLEY...WITH A LONG-DURATION GUSTY WIND EVENT EAST OF THE CASCADES
DUE TO CONTINUAL 50KT+ H7 FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THINGS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS SOME...LIKELY
BRINGING MORNING VALLEY FOG BACK TO THE REGION.  THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOVE IN WILL BE A COLD ONE FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO 3000 FEET ON CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH AMOUNTS TO BE DETERMINED
GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME. WILL
NO DOUBT SHIFT FOCUS TO THAT ONCE HEAVY RAINS AND WIND BEGINS TO
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ025-027-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ024-618-621.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ616-619-620.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ023.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC



000
FXUS66 KMFR 201715
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
915 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS
BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5
TO 1.75 INCHES. THIS AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS WEST-NORTHWEST
OFF MUCH OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, COAST MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES TODAY AND SUNDAY. VALLEY
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE MODERATE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. FURTHER SOUTH IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS ARE RISING THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET OR HIGHER FROM THE CASCADES WEST AND
AROUND 5000 TO 5500 FT EAST OF THE CASCADES. THESE SNOW LEVELS
WILL RISE FURTHER TO 8000 TO 9000 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR MOST
AREAS.

HEAVY RAINFALL WITH BRING FLOODING POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY TO THE
COAST, JUST INLAND TO PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE COUNTY, DOUGLAS COUNTY
AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. THE MAIN FLOOD IMPACTS
FOR THESE AREAS ARE SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING, PONDING ON
ROADWAYS, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES OR DEBRIS FLOWS. STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND
COAST MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES
AND DOUGLAS FOOTHILLS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE. AREAS INLAND WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON ARE
FORECAST TO RECEIVE AROUND 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM TODAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST, IN THE
MOUNTAINS, FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND INTO THE SHASTA
VALLEY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE INCREASING IN MANY OF THESE
AREAS THIS MORNING AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECT FOR MOST
COAST AREAS. IN THE MOUNTAINS MUCH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO FOR WINDS
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. EAST OF THE CASCADES
ALSO EXPECT VERY GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SUMMER LAKE
AREA. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS, MAY NEED TO
INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR MORE IN THE SUMMER LAKE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHEN WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AND MOVE INTO THAT ARE. WILL EVALUATE THIS AND UPDATE AS
NEEDED.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/12Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS/VIS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED.
LOCAL IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...EXCEPT AT THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL RISE
TO AROUND 9000 FEET SATURDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE ENDING AT THE COAST AS WINDS
BEGIN TO SURFACE, BUT MAY CONTINUE AT KRBG THROUGH 15Z. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TODAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP
COMBINED SEAS GOING EVEN AS SWELL DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT MODERATE SWELL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN WIND WAVES. -WRIGHT/CC




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT IS UNDERWAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF DEEP
MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST TO NEARLY 3000 MILES
OFFSHORE...POINTED AT THE OREGON COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE COAST...COAST RANGE...CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOUT 5500 FEET AND ARE RISING...SO THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT. ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE DANGEROUS SEAS...HIGH SURF AT THE COAST...AND
GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST
SIDE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT PICTURE...OVER THE PAST
4 RUNS AT LEAST...OF 48 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES OVER
THE CASCADES AND 4-5 INCHES AT THE COAST. WE HAVE ENSURED THAT THE
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...WITH SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL IN THE MOST
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CURRY COUNTY COAST AND
THE HIGH CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.

SOME CONFIDENCE TOOLS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE NUMBERS THIS
MORNING...WITH IVT VALUES OF 500 KG/M/S FOR 24 HOURS STRAIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE IVT...OR INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT...VALUES WHICH SUGGESTS HOW SIGNIFICANT THE MOISTURE IS
OVER THE REGION...ARE PEAKING AT VALUES THAT ONLY OCCUR ONCE EVERY 5-
10 YEARS OVER THE CASCADES...AND ONCE EVERY 2-5 YEARS AT THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR DURATION OF THESE HIGH VALUES MEANS THIS EVENT
COULD EVEN BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.

SO...WITH ALL THAT SAID...HAVE ADDED SOME AREAL FLOOD WATCHES TO
BOTH EASTERN CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD. THESE ARE IN
ADDITION TO AREAL FLOOD WATCHES THAT COVER THE COAST AND JUST INLAND
AT FFAMFR. THE CONCERNS HERE ARE NOT ONLY FOR
MUDSLIDES...ROCKSLIDES...AND LANDSLIDES...BUT ALSO FOR STREAMS
FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING WITH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
EXPECTED AT LEAST. TRAVELING TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL BE DIFFICULT
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE MAIN STEM
RIVER THAT IS FORECAST TO OVERFLOW ITS BANKS IS THE COQUILLE AT
COQUILLE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE RIVERS CERTAINLY WILL NEAR FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS
SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST THIS MORNING...SHASTA
VALLEY...WITH A LONG-DURATION GUSTY WIND EVENT EAST OF THE CASCADES
DUE TO CONTINUAL 50KT+ H7 FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THINGS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS SOME...LIKELY
BRINGING MORNING VALLEY FOG BACK TO THE REGION.  THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOVE IN WILL BE A COLD ONE FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO 3000 FEET ON CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH AMOUNTS TO BE DETERMINED
GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME. WILL
NO DOUBT SHIFT FOCUS TO THAT ONCE HEAVY RAINS AND WIND BEGINS TO
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ025-027-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ024-618-621.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ616-619-620.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ023.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC



000
FXUS66 KMFR 201715
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
915 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS
BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5
TO 1.75 INCHES. THIS AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS WEST-NORTHWEST
OFF MUCH OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, COAST MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES TODAY AND SUNDAY. VALLEY
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE MODERATE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. FURTHER SOUTH IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS ARE RISING THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET OR HIGHER FROM THE CASCADES WEST AND
AROUND 5000 TO 5500 FT EAST OF THE CASCADES. THESE SNOW LEVELS
WILL RISE FURTHER TO 8000 TO 9000 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR MOST
AREAS.

HEAVY RAINFALL WITH BRING FLOODING POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY TO THE
COAST, JUST INLAND TO PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE COUNTY, DOUGLAS COUNTY
AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. THE MAIN FLOOD IMPACTS
FOR THESE AREAS ARE SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING, PONDING ON
ROADWAYS, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES OR DEBRIS FLOWS. STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND
COAST MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES
AND DOUGLAS FOOTHILLS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE. AREAS INLAND WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON ARE
FORECAST TO RECEIVE AROUND 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM TODAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST, IN THE
MOUNTAINS, FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND INTO THE SHASTA
VALLEY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE INCREASING IN MANY OF THESE
AREAS THIS MORNING AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECT FOR MOST
COAST AREAS. IN THE MOUNTAINS MUCH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO FOR WINDS
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. EAST OF THE CASCADES
ALSO EXPECT VERY GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SUMMER LAKE
AREA. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS, MAY NEED TO
INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR MORE IN THE SUMMER LAKE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHEN WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AND MOVE INTO THAT ARE. WILL EVALUATE THIS AND UPDATE AS
NEEDED.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/12Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS/VIS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED.
LOCAL IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...EXCEPT AT THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL RISE
TO AROUND 9000 FEET SATURDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE ENDING AT THE COAST AS WINDS
BEGIN TO SURFACE, BUT MAY CONTINUE AT KRBG THROUGH 15Z. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TODAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP
COMBINED SEAS GOING EVEN AS SWELL DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT MODERATE SWELL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN WIND WAVES. -WRIGHT/CC




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT IS UNDERWAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF DEEP
MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST TO NEARLY 3000 MILES
OFFSHORE...POINTED AT THE OREGON COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE COAST...COAST RANGE...CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOUT 5500 FEET AND ARE RISING...SO THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT. ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE DANGEROUS SEAS...HIGH SURF AT THE COAST...AND
GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST
SIDE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT PICTURE...OVER THE PAST
4 RUNS AT LEAST...OF 48 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES OVER
THE CASCADES AND 4-5 INCHES AT THE COAST. WE HAVE ENSURED THAT THE
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...WITH SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL IN THE MOST
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CURRY COUNTY COAST AND
THE HIGH CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.

SOME CONFIDENCE TOOLS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE NUMBERS THIS
MORNING...WITH IVT VALUES OF 500 KG/M/S FOR 24 HOURS STRAIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE IVT...OR INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT...VALUES WHICH SUGGESTS HOW SIGNIFICANT THE MOISTURE IS
OVER THE REGION...ARE PEAKING AT VALUES THAT ONLY OCCUR ONCE EVERY 5-
10 YEARS OVER THE CASCADES...AND ONCE EVERY 2-5 YEARS AT THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR DURATION OF THESE HIGH VALUES MEANS THIS EVENT
COULD EVEN BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.

SO...WITH ALL THAT SAID...HAVE ADDED SOME AREAL FLOOD WATCHES TO
BOTH EASTERN CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD. THESE ARE IN
ADDITION TO AREAL FLOOD WATCHES THAT COVER THE COAST AND JUST INLAND
AT FFAMFR. THE CONCERNS HERE ARE NOT ONLY FOR
MUDSLIDES...ROCKSLIDES...AND LANDSLIDES...BUT ALSO FOR STREAMS
FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING WITH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
EXPECTED AT LEAST. TRAVELING TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL BE DIFFICULT
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE MAIN STEM
RIVER THAT IS FORECAST TO OVERFLOW ITS BANKS IS THE COQUILLE AT
COQUILLE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE RIVERS CERTAINLY WILL NEAR FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS
SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST THIS MORNING...SHASTA
VALLEY...WITH A LONG-DURATION GUSTY WIND EVENT EAST OF THE CASCADES
DUE TO CONTINUAL 50KT+ H7 FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THINGS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS SOME...LIKELY
BRINGING MORNING VALLEY FOG BACK TO THE REGION.  THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOVE IN WILL BE A COLD ONE FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO 3000 FEET ON CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH AMOUNTS TO BE DETERMINED
GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME. WILL
NO DOUBT SHIFT FOCUS TO THAT ONCE HEAVY RAINS AND WIND BEGINS TO
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ025-027-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ024-618-621.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ616-619-620.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ023.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC



000
FXUS66 KMFR 201715
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
915 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS
BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5
TO 1.75 INCHES. THIS AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS WEST-NORTHWEST
OFF MUCH OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, COAST MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES TODAY AND SUNDAY. VALLEY
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE MODERATE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. FURTHER SOUTH IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS ARE RISING THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET OR HIGHER FROM THE CASCADES WEST AND
AROUND 5000 TO 5500 FT EAST OF THE CASCADES. THESE SNOW LEVELS
WILL RISE FURTHER TO 8000 TO 9000 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR MOST
AREAS.

HEAVY RAINFALL WITH BRING FLOODING POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY TO THE
COAST, JUST INLAND TO PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE COUNTY, DOUGLAS COUNTY
AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. THE MAIN FLOOD IMPACTS
FOR THESE AREAS ARE SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING, PONDING ON
ROADWAYS, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES OR DEBRIS FLOWS. STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND
COAST MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES
AND DOUGLAS FOOTHILLS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE. AREAS INLAND WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON ARE
FORECAST TO RECEIVE AROUND 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM TODAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST, IN THE
MOUNTAINS, FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND INTO THE SHASTA
VALLEY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE INCREASING IN MANY OF THESE
AREAS THIS MORNING AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECT FOR MOST
COAST AREAS. IN THE MOUNTAINS MUCH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO FOR WINDS
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. EAST OF THE CASCADES
ALSO EXPECT VERY GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SUMMER LAKE
AREA. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS, MAY NEED TO
INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR MORE IN THE SUMMER LAKE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHEN WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AND MOVE INTO THAT ARE. WILL EVALUATE THIS AND UPDATE AS
NEEDED.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/12Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS/VIS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED.
LOCAL IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...EXCEPT AT THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL RISE
TO AROUND 9000 FEET SATURDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE ENDING AT THE COAST AS WINDS
BEGIN TO SURFACE, BUT MAY CONTINUE AT KRBG THROUGH 15Z. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TODAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP
COMBINED SEAS GOING EVEN AS SWELL DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT MODERATE SWELL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN WIND WAVES. -WRIGHT/CC




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT IS UNDERWAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF DEEP
MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST TO NEARLY 3000 MILES
OFFSHORE...POINTED AT THE OREGON COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE COAST...COAST RANGE...CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOUT 5500 FEET AND ARE RISING...SO THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT. ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE DANGEROUS SEAS...HIGH SURF AT THE COAST...AND
GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST
SIDE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT PICTURE...OVER THE PAST
4 RUNS AT LEAST...OF 48 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES OVER
THE CASCADES AND 4-5 INCHES AT THE COAST. WE HAVE ENSURED THAT THE
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...WITH SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL IN THE MOST
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CURRY COUNTY COAST AND
THE HIGH CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.

SOME CONFIDENCE TOOLS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE NUMBERS THIS
MORNING...WITH IVT VALUES OF 500 KG/M/S FOR 24 HOURS STRAIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE IVT...OR INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT...VALUES WHICH SUGGESTS HOW SIGNIFICANT THE MOISTURE IS
OVER THE REGION...ARE PEAKING AT VALUES THAT ONLY OCCUR ONCE EVERY 5-
10 YEARS OVER THE CASCADES...AND ONCE EVERY 2-5 YEARS AT THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR DURATION OF THESE HIGH VALUES MEANS THIS EVENT
COULD EVEN BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.

SO...WITH ALL THAT SAID...HAVE ADDED SOME AREAL FLOOD WATCHES TO
BOTH EASTERN CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD. THESE ARE IN
ADDITION TO AREAL FLOOD WATCHES THAT COVER THE COAST AND JUST INLAND
AT FFAMFR. THE CONCERNS HERE ARE NOT ONLY FOR
MUDSLIDES...ROCKSLIDES...AND LANDSLIDES...BUT ALSO FOR STREAMS
FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING WITH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
EXPECTED AT LEAST. TRAVELING TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL BE DIFFICULT
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE MAIN STEM
RIVER THAT IS FORECAST TO OVERFLOW ITS BANKS IS THE COQUILLE AT
COQUILLE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE RIVERS CERTAINLY WILL NEAR FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS
SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST THIS MORNING...SHASTA
VALLEY...WITH A LONG-DURATION GUSTY WIND EVENT EAST OF THE CASCADES
DUE TO CONTINUAL 50KT+ H7 FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THINGS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS SOME...LIKELY
BRINGING MORNING VALLEY FOG BACK TO THE REGION.  THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOVE IN WILL BE A COLD ONE FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO 3000 FEET ON CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH AMOUNTS TO BE DETERMINED
GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME. WILL
NO DOUBT SHIFT FOCUS TO THAT ONCE HEAVY RAINS AND WIND BEGINS TO
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ025-027-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ024-618-621.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ616-619-620.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ023.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201619
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...STRONG MOIST WESTERLY FETCH BEGAN STEADY PCPN IN OUR
CWA A LITTLE SOONER THAN EXPECTED.  MAIN MOISTURE SURGE WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES NEAR 140W.  IN
THE MEANTIME OUR CWA WILL GET PCPN ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HEAVIEST THIS EVENING...WITH RAIN BELOW 5000 FEET MSL TODAY...5500
FEET MSL TONIGHT...AND 6000 FEET MSL SUNDAY.  WET SNOW OR MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE THAT...AND HEAVY SNOW ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET MSL.
CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SNOW THROUGH 11 PM MST TONIGHT IN THE
WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE...AND WE MAY EXTEND IT
INTO SUNDAY BASED ON NEW 12Z MODEL DATA.  BUT FOR NOW...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR IN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4000FT THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY RISE TO 9000FT IN SE OREGON AND 5500 FT IN
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS BY 06Z SUN. SURFACE WINDS...SW 15-25 KTS IN
SE OREGON...SW 5-15KT IN IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND SE 10-15KT IN
BAKER...MAGIC VALLEY...AND TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...WESTERLY 35-45KT BECOMING NW 50-60 KT BY 03Z SUN AND NW 60-
80KT BY 15Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE STRETCHING
BACK TO THE DATELINE WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW TODAY. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL /150-200 PERCENT/
AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT WARM-AIR ADVECTION LATER
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL FILL IN ACROSS SE OREGON BY LATE MORNING
AND SW IDAHO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT BETWEEN
4-5K FEET. THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WITH A
WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WESTERLY WINDS OF
30-60 KTS AT 700 MB WILL PUSH SNOW LEVELS TO 6-7K FEET BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND MAXIMIZE PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES
IN THE MTNS OF EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND SW IDAHO. SW IDAHO VALLEYS
AND SE OREGON COULD SEE A SHORT BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE WARM ADVECTION WANES AND PRECIPITATION PROCESS
BECOMES MAINLY OROGRAPHIC. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE FLOW SHIFTS MORE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL REINTRODUCE
PRECIPITATION TO LOWER VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS PEAK MIDDAY SUNDAY AND
MAY START TO EDGE DOWN SOME IN THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS UNDER THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHER FORECAST SNOW LEVELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SUNDAY HAVE CUT DOWN ON MTN VALLEY SNOW
TOTALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BOISE MTNS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. THUS
HAVE TAKEN DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THESE ZONES. ALSO THE WARMING
OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO LESS OF AN IMPACT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS
SO HAVE SHORTENED UP THE ADVISORY PERIOD THERE.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFF OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS
STILL EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER THIS RIDGE...AND MODELS VARY AND HOW
FAR NORTH THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND THUS...HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE
STAYS.  THE ECMWF BRINGS BACK PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
ENTIRE AREA DRY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
FLATTENING THE RIDGE...SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF...AND
THE GFS IS WARMER. THEREFORE...TIMING OF PRECIP AND WHETHER OR NOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE VALLEYS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...ONCE THAT TROUGH PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST
     THIS EVENING IDZ011.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201619
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...STRONG MOIST WESTERLY FETCH BEGAN STEADY PCPN IN OUR
CWA A LITTLE SOONER THAN EXPECTED.  MAIN MOISTURE SURGE WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES NEAR 140W.  IN
THE MEANTIME OUR CWA WILL GET PCPN ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HEAVIEST THIS EVENING...WITH RAIN BELOW 5000 FEET MSL TODAY...5500
FEET MSL TONIGHT...AND 6000 FEET MSL SUNDAY.  WET SNOW OR MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE THAT...AND HEAVY SNOW ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET MSL.
CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SNOW THROUGH 11 PM MST TONIGHT IN THE
WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE...AND WE MAY EXTEND IT
INTO SUNDAY BASED ON NEW 12Z MODEL DATA.  BUT FOR NOW...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR IN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4000FT THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY RISE TO 9000FT IN SE OREGON AND 5500 FT IN
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS BY 06Z SUN. SURFACE WINDS...SW 15-25 KTS IN
SE OREGON...SW 5-15KT IN IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND SE 10-15KT IN
BAKER...MAGIC VALLEY...AND TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...WESTERLY 35-45KT BECOMING NW 50-60 KT BY 03Z SUN AND NW 60-
80KT BY 15Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE STRETCHING
BACK TO THE DATELINE WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW TODAY. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL /150-200 PERCENT/
AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT WARM-AIR ADVECTION LATER
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL FILL IN ACROSS SE OREGON BY LATE MORNING
AND SW IDAHO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT BETWEEN
4-5K FEET. THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WITH A
WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WESTERLY WINDS OF
30-60 KTS AT 700 MB WILL PUSH SNOW LEVELS TO 6-7K FEET BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND MAXIMIZE PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES
IN THE MTNS OF EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND SW IDAHO. SW IDAHO VALLEYS
AND SE OREGON COULD SEE A SHORT BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE WARM ADVECTION WANES AND PRECIPITATION PROCESS
BECOMES MAINLY OROGRAPHIC. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE FLOW SHIFTS MORE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL REINTRODUCE
PRECIPITATION TO LOWER VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS PEAK MIDDAY SUNDAY AND
MAY START TO EDGE DOWN SOME IN THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS UNDER THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHER FORECAST SNOW LEVELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SUNDAY HAVE CUT DOWN ON MTN VALLEY SNOW
TOTALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BOISE MTNS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. THUS
HAVE TAKEN DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THESE ZONES. ALSO THE WARMING
OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO LESS OF AN IMPACT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS
SO HAVE SHORTENED UP THE ADVISORY PERIOD THERE.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFF OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS
STILL EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER THIS RIDGE...AND MODELS VARY AND HOW
FAR NORTH THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND THUS...HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE
STAYS.  THE ECMWF BRINGS BACK PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
ENTIRE AREA DRY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
FLATTENING THE RIDGE...SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF...AND
THE GFS IS WARMER. THEREFORE...TIMING OF PRECIP AND WHETHER OR NOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE VALLEYS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...ONCE THAT TROUGH PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST
     THIS EVENING IDZ011.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....EP




000
FXUS66 KMFR 201141 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
341 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT IS UNDERWAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF DEEP
MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST TO NEARLY 3000 MILES
OFFSHORE...POINTED AT THE OREGON COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE COAST...COAST RANGE...CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOUT 5500 FEET AND ARE RISING...SO THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT. ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE DANGEROUS SEAS...HIGH SURF AT THE COAST...AND
GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST
SIDE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT PICTURE...OVER THE PAST
4 RUNS AT LEAST...OF 48 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES OVER
THE CASCADES AND 4-5 INCHES AT THE COAST. WE HAVE ENSURED THAT THE
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...WITH SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL IN THE MOST
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CURRY COUNTY COAST AND
THE HIGH CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.

SOME CONFIDENCE TOOLS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE NUMBERS THIS
MORNING...WITH IVT VALUES OF 500 KG/M/S FOR 24 HOURS STRAIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE IVT...OR INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT...VALUES WHICH SUGGESTS HOW SIGNIFICANT THE MOISTURE IS
OVER THE REGION...ARE PEAKING AT VALUES THAT ONLY OCCUR ONCE EVERY 5-
10 YEARS OVER THE CASCADES...AND ONCE EVERY 2-5 YEARS AT THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR DURATION OF THESE HIGH VALUES MEANS THIS EVENT
COULD EVEN BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.

SO...WITH ALL THAT SAID...HAVE ADDED SOME AREAL FLOOD WATCHES TO
BOTH EASTERN CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD. THESE ARE IN
ADDITION TO AREAL FLOOD WATCHES THAT COVER THE COAST AND JUST INLAND
AT FFAMFR. THE CONCERNS HERE ARE NOT ONLY FOR
MUDSLIDES...ROCKSLIDES...AND LANDSLIDES...BUT ALSO FOR STREAMS
FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING WITH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
EXPECTED AT LEAST. TRAVELING TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL BE DIFFICULT
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE MAIN STEM
RIVER THAT IS FORECAST TO OVERFLOW ITS BANKS IS THE COQUILLE AT
COQUILLE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE RIVERS CERTAINLY WILL NEAR FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS
SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST THIS MORNING...SHASTA
VALLEY...WITH A LONG-DURATION GUSTY WIND EVENT EAST OF THE CASCADES
DUE TO CONTINUAL 50KT+ H7 FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THINGS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS SOME...LIKELY
BRINGING MORNING VALLEY FOG BACK TO THE REGION.  THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOVE IN WILL BE A COLD ONE FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO 3000 FEET ON CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH AMOUNTS TO BE DETERMINED
GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME. WILL
NO DOUBT SHIFT FOCUS TO THAT ONCE HEAVY RAINS AND WIND BEGINS TO
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/06Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS/VIS WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH TODAY. LOCAL IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...EXCEPT AT THE
COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL RISE TO AROUND 9000 FEET
TODAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE ENDING AT THE COAST AS WINDS BEGIN TO SURFACE, BUT
MAY CONTINUE AT KRBG THROUGH 15Z. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING
SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS
GOING EVEN AS SWELL DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODERATE
SWELL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE WATERS CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WIND WAVES.
-WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ025-027-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ024-618-621.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ616-619-620.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/NSK/MAS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 201141 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
341 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT IS UNDERWAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF DEEP
MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST TO NEARLY 3000 MILES
OFFSHORE...POINTED AT THE OREGON COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE COAST...COAST RANGE...CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOUT 5500 FEET AND ARE RISING...SO THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT. ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE DANGEROUS SEAS...HIGH SURF AT THE COAST...AND
GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST
SIDE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT PICTURE...OVER THE PAST
4 RUNS AT LEAST...OF 48 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES OVER
THE CASCADES AND 4-5 INCHES AT THE COAST. WE HAVE ENSURED THAT THE
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...WITH SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL IN THE MOST
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CURRY COUNTY COAST AND
THE HIGH CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.

SOME CONFIDENCE TOOLS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE NUMBERS THIS
MORNING...WITH IVT VALUES OF 500 KG/M/S FOR 24 HOURS STRAIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE IVT...OR INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT...VALUES WHICH SUGGESTS HOW SIGNIFICANT THE MOISTURE IS
OVER THE REGION...ARE PEAKING AT VALUES THAT ONLY OCCUR ONCE EVERY 5-
10 YEARS OVER THE CASCADES...AND ONCE EVERY 2-5 YEARS AT THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR DURATION OF THESE HIGH VALUES MEANS THIS EVENT
COULD EVEN BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.

SO...WITH ALL THAT SAID...HAVE ADDED SOME AREAL FLOOD WATCHES TO
BOTH EASTERN CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD. THESE ARE IN
ADDITION TO AREAL FLOOD WATCHES THAT COVER THE COAST AND JUST INLAND
AT FFAMFR. THE CONCERNS HERE ARE NOT ONLY FOR
MUDSLIDES...ROCKSLIDES...AND LANDSLIDES...BUT ALSO FOR STREAMS
FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING WITH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
EXPECTED AT LEAST. TRAVELING TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL BE DIFFICULT
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE MAIN STEM
RIVER THAT IS FORECAST TO OVERFLOW ITS BANKS IS THE COQUILLE AT
COQUILLE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE RIVERS CERTAINLY WILL NEAR FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS
SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST THIS MORNING...SHASTA
VALLEY...WITH A LONG-DURATION GUSTY WIND EVENT EAST OF THE CASCADES
DUE TO CONTINUAL 50KT+ H7 FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THINGS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS SOME...LIKELY
BRINGING MORNING VALLEY FOG BACK TO THE REGION.  THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOVE IN WILL BE A COLD ONE FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO 3000 FEET ON CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH AMOUNTS TO BE DETERMINED
GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME. WILL
NO DOUBT SHIFT FOCUS TO THAT ONCE HEAVY RAINS AND WIND BEGINS TO
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/06Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS/VIS WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH TODAY. LOCAL IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...EXCEPT AT THE
COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL RISE TO AROUND 9000 FEET
TODAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE ENDING AT THE COAST AS WINDS BEGIN TO SURFACE, BUT
MAY CONTINUE AT KRBG THROUGH 15Z. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING
SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS
GOING EVEN AS SWELL DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODERATE
SWELL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE WATERS CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WIND WAVES.
-WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ025-027-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ024-618-621.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ616-619-620.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/NSK/MAS



000
FXUS66 KMFR 201141
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
341 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT IS UNDERWAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF DEEP
MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST TO NEARLY 3000 MILES
OFFSHORE...POINTED AT THE OREGON COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE COAST...COAST RANGE...CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOUT 5500 FEET AND ARE RISING...SO THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT. ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE DANGEROUS SEAS...HIGH SURF AT THE COAST...AND
GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST
SIDE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT PICTURE...OVER THE PAST
4 RUNS AT LEAST...OF 48 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES OVER
THE CASCADES AND 4-5 INCHES AT THE COAST. WE HAVE ENSURED THAT THE
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...WITH SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL IN THE MOST
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CURRY COUNTY COAST AND
THE HIGH CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.

SOME CONFIDENCE TOOLS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE NUMBERS THIS
MORNING...WITH IVT VALUES OF 500 KG/M/S FOR 24 HOURS STRAIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE IVT...OR INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT...VALUES WHICH SUGGESTS HOW SIGNIFICANT THE MOISTURE IS
OVER THE REGION...ARE PEAKING AT VALUES THAT ONLY OCCUR ONCE EVERY 5-
10 YEARS OVER THE CASCADES...AND ONCE EVERY 2-5 YEARS AT THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR DURATION OF THESE HIGH VALUES MEANS THIS EVENT
COULD EVEN BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.

SO...WITH ALL THAT SAID...HAVE ADDED SOME AREAL FLOOD WATCHES TO
BOTH EASTERN CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD. THESE ARE IN
ADDITION TO AREAL FLOOD WATCHES THAT COVER THE COAST AND JUST INLAND
AT FFAMFR. THE CONCERNS HERE ARE NOT ONLY FOR
MUDSLIDES...ROCKSLIDES...AND LANDSLIDES...BUT ALSO FOR STREAMS
FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING WITH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
EXPECTED AT LEAST. TRAVELING TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL BE DIFFICULT
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE MAIN STEM
RIVER THAT IS FORECAST TO OVERFLOW ITS BANKS IS THE COQUILLE AT
COQUILLE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE RIVERS CERTAINLY WILL NEAR FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS
SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST THIS MORNING...SHASTA
VALLEY...WITH A LONG-DURATION GUSTY WIND EVENT EAST OF THE CASCADES
DUE TO CONTINUAL 50KT+ H7 FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THINGS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS SOME...LIKELY
BRINGING MORNING VALLEY FOG BACK TO THE REGION.  THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOVE IN WILL BE A COLD ONE FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO 3000 FEET ON CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH AMOUNTS TO BE DETERMINED
GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME. WILL
NO DOUBT SHIFT FOCUS TO THAT ONCE HEAVY RAINS AND WIND BEGINS TO
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/06Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS/VIS WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOCAL IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT
TO MODERATE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL RISE
TO AROUND 9000 FEET TODAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE ENDING AT THE COAST AS WINDS
BEGIN TO SURFACE, BUT MAY CONTINUE AT KRBG THROUGH 15Z. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING
SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS
GOING EVEN AS SWELL DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODERATE
SWELL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE WATERS CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WIND WAVES.
-WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ025-027-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ024-618-621.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ616-619-620.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/NSK/MAS



000
FXUS66 KMFR 201141
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
341 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT IS UNDERWAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF DEEP
MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST TO NEARLY 3000 MILES
OFFSHORE...POINTED AT THE OREGON COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE COAST...COAST RANGE...CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOUT 5500 FEET AND ARE RISING...SO THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT. ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE DANGEROUS SEAS...HIGH SURF AT THE COAST...AND
GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST
SIDE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT PICTURE...OVER THE PAST
4 RUNS AT LEAST...OF 48 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES OVER
THE CASCADES AND 4-5 INCHES AT THE COAST. WE HAVE ENSURED THAT THE
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...WITH SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL IN THE MOST
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CURRY COUNTY COAST AND
THE HIGH CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.

SOME CONFIDENCE TOOLS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE NUMBERS THIS
MORNING...WITH IVT VALUES OF 500 KG/M/S FOR 24 HOURS STRAIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE IVT...OR INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT...VALUES WHICH SUGGESTS HOW SIGNIFICANT THE MOISTURE IS
OVER THE REGION...ARE PEAKING AT VALUES THAT ONLY OCCUR ONCE EVERY 5-
10 YEARS OVER THE CASCADES...AND ONCE EVERY 2-5 YEARS AT THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR DURATION OF THESE HIGH VALUES MEANS THIS EVENT
COULD EVEN BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.

SO...WITH ALL THAT SAID...HAVE ADDED SOME AREAL FLOOD WATCHES TO
BOTH EASTERN CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD. THESE ARE IN
ADDITION TO AREAL FLOOD WATCHES THAT COVER THE COAST AND JUST INLAND
AT FFAMFR. THE CONCERNS HERE ARE NOT ONLY FOR
MUDSLIDES...ROCKSLIDES...AND LANDSLIDES...BUT ALSO FOR STREAMS
FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING WITH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
EXPECTED AT LEAST. TRAVELING TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL BE DIFFICULT
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE MAIN STEM
RIVER THAT IS FORECAST TO OVERFLOW ITS BANKS IS THE COQUILLE AT
COQUILLE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE RIVERS CERTAINLY WILL NEAR FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS
SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST THIS MORNING...SHASTA
VALLEY...WITH A LONG-DURATION GUSTY WIND EVENT EAST OF THE CASCADES
DUE TO CONTINUAL 50KT+ H7 FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THINGS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS SOME...LIKELY
BRINGING MORNING VALLEY FOG BACK TO THE REGION.  THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOVE IN WILL BE A COLD ONE FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO 3000 FEET ON CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH AMOUNTS TO BE DETERMINED
GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME. WILL
NO DOUBT SHIFT FOCUS TO THAT ONCE HEAVY RAINS AND WIND BEGINS TO
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/06Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS/VIS WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOCAL IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT
TO MODERATE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL RISE
TO AROUND 9000 FEET TODAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE ENDING AT THE COAST AS WINDS
BEGIN TO SURFACE, BUT MAY CONTINUE AT KRBG THROUGH 15Z. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING
SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS
GOING EVEN AS SWELL DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODERATE
SWELL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE WATERS CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WIND WAVES.
-WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ025-027-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ024-618-621.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ616-619-620.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/NSK/MAS



000
FXUS66 KMFR 201141
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
341 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT IS UNDERWAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF DEEP
MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST TO NEARLY 3000 MILES
OFFSHORE...POINTED AT THE OREGON COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE COAST...COAST RANGE...CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOUT 5500 FEET AND ARE RISING...SO THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT. ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE DANGEROUS SEAS...HIGH SURF AT THE COAST...AND
GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST
SIDE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT PICTURE...OVER THE PAST
4 RUNS AT LEAST...OF 48 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES OVER
THE CASCADES AND 4-5 INCHES AT THE COAST. WE HAVE ENSURED THAT THE
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...WITH SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL IN THE MOST
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CURRY COUNTY COAST AND
THE HIGH CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.

SOME CONFIDENCE TOOLS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE NUMBERS THIS
MORNING...WITH IVT VALUES OF 500 KG/M/S FOR 24 HOURS STRAIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE IVT...OR INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT...VALUES WHICH SUGGESTS HOW SIGNIFICANT THE MOISTURE IS
OVER THE REGION...ARE PEAKING AT VALUES THAT ONLY OCCUR ONCE EVERY 5-
10 YEARS OVER THE CASCADES...AND ONCE EVERY 2-5 YEARS AT THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR DURATION OF THESE HIGH VALUES MEANS THIS EVENT
COULD EVEN BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.

SO...WITH ALL THAT SAID...HAVE ADDED SOME AREAL FLOOD WATCHES TO
BOTH EASTERN CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD. THESE ARE IN
ADDITION TO AREAL FLOOD WATCHES THAT COVER THE COAST AND JUST INLAND
AT FFAMFR. THE CONCERNS HERE ARE NOT ONLY FOR
MUDSLIDES...ROCKSLIDES...AND LANDSLIDES...BUT ALSO FOR STREAMS
FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING WITH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
EXPECTED AT LEAST. TRAVELING TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL BE DIFFICULT
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE MAIN STEM
RIVER THAT IS FORECAST TO OVERFLOW ITS BANKS IS THE COQUILLE AT
COQUILLE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE RIVERS CERTAINLY WILL NEAR FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS
SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST THIS MORNING...SHASTA
VALLEY...WITH A LONG-DURATION GUSTY WIND EVENT EAST OF THE CASCADES
DUE TO CONTINUAL 50KT+ H7 FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THINGS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS SOME...LIKELY
BRINGING MORNING VALLEY FOG BACK TO THE REGION.  THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOVE IN WILL BE A COLD ONE FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO 3000 FEET ON CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH AMOUNTS TO BE DETERMINED
GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME. WILL
NO DOUBT SHIFT FOCUS TO THAT ONCE HEAVY RAINS AND WIND BEGINS TO
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/06Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS/VIS WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOCAL IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT
TO MODERATE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL RISE
TO AROUND 9000 FEET TODAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE ENDING AT THE COAST AS WINDS
BEGIN TO SURFACE, BUT MAY CONTINUE AT KRBG THROUGH 15Z. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING
SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS
GOING EVEN AS SWELL DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODERATE
SWELL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE WATERS CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WIND WAVES.
-WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ025-027-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ024-618-621.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ616-619-620.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/NSK/MAS



000
FXUS66 KMFR 201141
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
341 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT IS UNDERWAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF DEEP
MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST TO NEARLY 3000 MILES
OFFSHORE...POINTED AT THE OREGON COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE COAST...COAST RANGE...CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOUT 5500 FEET AND ARE RISING...SO THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT. ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE DANGEROUS SEAS...HIGH SURF AT THE COAST...AND
GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST
SIDE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT PICTURE...OVER THE PAST
4 RUNS AT LEAST...OF 48 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES OVER
THE CASCADES AND 4-5 INCHES AT THE COAST. WE HAVE ENSURED THAT THE
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...WITH SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL IN THE MOST
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CURRY COUNTY COAST AND
THE HIGH CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.

SOME CONFIDENCE TOOLS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE NUMBERS THIS
MORNING...WITH IVT VALUES OF 500 KG/M/S FOR 24 HOURS STRAIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE IVT...OR INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT...VALUES WHICH SUGGESTS HOW SIGNIFICANT THE MOISTURE IS
OVER THE REGION...ARE PEAKING AT VALUES THAT ONLY OCCUR ONCE EVERY 5-
10 YEARS OVER THE CASCADES...AND ONCE EVERY 2-5 YEARS AT THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR DURATION OF THESE HIGH VALUES MEANS THIS EVENT
COULD EVEN BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.

SO...WITH ALL THAT SAID...HAVE ADDED SOME AREAL FLOOD WATCHES TO
BOTH EASTERN CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD. THESE ARE IN
ADDITION TO AREAL FLOOD WATCHES THAT COVER THE COAST AND JUST INLAND
AT FFAMFR. THE CONCERNS HERE ARE NOT ONLY FOR
MUDSLIDES...ROCKSLIDES...AND LANDSLIDES...BUT ALSO FOR STREAMS
FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING WITH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
EXPECTED AT LEAST. TRAVELING TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL BE DIFFICULT
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE MAIN STEM
RIVER THAT IS FORECAST TO OVERFLOW ITS BANKS IS THE COQUILLE AT
COQUILLE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE RIVERS CERTAINLY WILL NEAR FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS
SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST THIS MORNING...SHASTA
VALLEY...WITH A LONG-DURATION GUSTY WIND EVENT EAST OF THE CASCADES
DUE TO CONTINUAL 50KT+ H7 FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THINGS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS SOME...LIKELY
BRINGING MORNING VALLEY FOG BACK TO THE REGION.  THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOVE IN WILL BE A COLD ONE FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO 3000 FEET ON CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH AMOUNTS TO BE DETERMINED
GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME. WILL
NO DOUBT SHIFT FOCUS TO THAT ONCE HEAVY RAINS AND WIND BEGINS TO
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/06Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS/VIS WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOCAL IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT
TO MODERATE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL RISE
TO AROUND 9000 FEET TODAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE ENDING AT THE COAST AS WINDS
BEGIN TO SURFACE, BUT MAY CONTINUE AT KRBG THROUGH 15Z. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING
SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS
GOING EVEN AS SWELL DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODERATE
SWELL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE WATERS CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WIND WAVES.
-WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ025-027-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ024-618-621.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ616-619-620.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/NSK/MAS



000
FXUS66 KPQR 201059
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
258 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER BEGAN OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
OR PLUME OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ALL AREAS WILL SEE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINS. THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD EASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A
COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH SNOW DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND COAST RANGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...OUR WELL ADVERTISED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT HAS BEGUN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH OVERRUNNING RAIN
HAVING SPREAD ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG WARM
FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF WARM FRONTAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH
TODAY THAT WILL KEEP TODAY VERY WET...WITH A DECENT SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH MID DAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME RATHER
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WE MAY GET CLOSE TO HIGH WIND VALUES AT
THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...BUT WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
OF JUST BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

THE MAIN STORY THOUGH WILL BE THE RAIN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATER TODAY...SEVERAL MORE SURGES OF RAIN FOLLOW TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IN THE CONTINUED STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE LOWER LEVEL
FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AS WELL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND WE MAY
START TO SEE A BIT OF RAIN SHADOWING TO THE LEE OF THE COAST RANGE.
BUT THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUED TO HIT HARD BY THE
RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.

AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD START
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MANY AREA RIVERS BY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN MY MIND RIGHT NOW IS IF THERE WILL BE ANY LET
UP OR BREAKS IN THE HEAVY RAIN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATER TODAY AND BETWEEN ANY OF THE MOISTURE SURGES COMING IN TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY CONTROL HOW MANY RIVERS FLOOD AND
HOW HIGH THEY GET. NEVERTHELESS...THE HYDRO SECTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION WILL NOT BE UPDATED THIS MORNING AS IT STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE.

THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW STARTS TO BUCKLE LATE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE STARTS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...WHICH CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT IN OUR AREA IS THAT
IT WILL THE PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE COMING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DECREASE AS THE ONSHORE FLOW ABATES...THOUGH IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR ANY RIVERS THAT FLOOD TO REACT AND RECEDE.

WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR SNOW THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WARM FRONT. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD RISE AND THE SNOW TURN TO MOSTLY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OREGON CASCADES WILL SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW THIS MORNING AS WELL.
TOLLESON
&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS DIRTY
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND STARTS TO SHIFT INLAND. THIS MARKS THE NEXT
BEST SHOT FOR THE CASCADES TO FINALLY SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 2000 TO 2500 FT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. COLDER NORTH FLOW WILL FOLLOW
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL WELL BELOW NORMAL AS CONDITIONS DRY
OUT NEXT FRIDAY. /27
&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO CHANGE...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A
SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TYPE PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL IMPACT
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL START LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN STALL
OVER THE REGION LATER SAT AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO EARLY
MON. SIGNIFICANT SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH A LONG FETCH THAT
STRETCHES ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL FEED INTO THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM...BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF VERY LARGE RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY MON...WHICH WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
COAST RANGE...FOOTHILLS...AND CASCADES. THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE AROUND 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER RAIN THROUGH EARLY MON... WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS SEEING EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE N OREGON CASCADES.
THE LOWER TERRAIN IS FORECASTED TO SEE LOWER...ALTHOUGH STILL
IMPRESSIVE TOTALS. WE EXPECT 4 TO 8 INCHES TO FALL ALONG THE
COAST...AND 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS...NUMEROUS AREA RIVERS
ARE NOW PROJECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. A FEW LOCATIONS ARE EVEN
PROJECTED TO REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL OF SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON STARTING LATE SAT AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON. SOME OF THE FASTER RESPONDING RIVERS
DRAINING THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS
EARLY AS SAT EVENING. SLOWER RESPONDING AND MAIN STEM RIVERS WOULD
LIKELY NOT REACH FLOOD UNTIL LATER SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING CONCERNS...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CREATE LANDSLIDES...DEBRIS FLOWS...AND EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
IN THE VICINITY OF RECENT WILDFIRE BURN SCARS. BURN SCARS FROM TWO
LARGE FIRES THIS SUMMER...THE 36 PIT FIRE IN THE CLACKAMAS RIVER
BASIN NEAR ESTACADA AND THE DECEPTION COMPLEX NEAR OAKRIDGE...WILL
BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER HEAVY
PRECIPITATION EVENTS...A LOT DEPENDS ON EXACTLY WHERE THE BAND OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SETS UP. THE FCST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
HIGHLIGHTING OUR REGION FOR SOME OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE SHIFTS IN THE
EXACT POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD EFFECT PRECIPITATION
ESTIMATES AND RIVER FORECASTS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST
FORECASTS. RIVER FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR (ALL LOWER CASE).
PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...FLIGHT CONDITIONS SLOWLY WORSENING. DO HAVE A MIX OF VFR
AND MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AM...BUT THAT WILL NOT LAST LONG. MVFR
CIGS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH RAIN. WILL ALSO SEE
POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. EXPECT
HIGHER TERRAIN AND PASSES TO BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP. S
WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 45 KT ALONG THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS DROP TO MVFR BY 14Z...THEN HOLD NEAR 2000
FT THROUGH THIS EVENING. VIS WILL ALSO DROP...DOWN TO 3 TO 4 MI BY
18Z...AND HOLDING AT THAT THROUGH THIS EVENING. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY GALES ON THE WATERS TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS THIS
AM...BUT MAY BE ANOTHER BURST OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER GALES THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SUB
GALE FORCE WINDS BY MIDNIGHT.

SEAS 20 TO 22 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS THIS AM...BUT STILL 16 TO 18
FT CLOSER TO SHORE. BUOY 5 TOPPED OUT AT 25 FT FRI EVENING. BASED ON
LOCAL GUIDANCE...THIS PUTS 20 FT SWELL ON THE COAST THIS AM. LOOKING
AT BUOY 89...WHICH SITS ABOUT 80 MILES OFFSHORE...THE TIMING LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR 20 FT SEAS AT THE SURF ZONE AROUND 6 AM TODAY. SEAS
WILL HOLD NEAR 20 FT CLOSE TO SHORE TODAY WITH 22 TO 24 FT OVER FAR
OUTER WATERS. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

RATHER BENIGN WIND PATTERNS FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...WITH TREND TO
W OR NW WINDS...BUT STILL 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE...BUT WILL HOLD AT 10 TO 12 FT THROUGH WED.   ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
  ALL OF NORTHWEST OREGON.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM TODAY FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
  OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
  ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM TODAY FOR SOUTH WA COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM TODAY FOR SOUTH
 WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS TODAY
 THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201030
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE
STRETCHING BACK TO THE DATELINE WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW TODAY.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL /150-200
PERCENT/ AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT WARM-AIR ADVECTION
LATER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL FILL IN ACROSS SE OREGON BY LATE
MORNING AND SW IDAHO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL START
OUT BETWEEN 4-5K FEET. THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES WITH A WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON
WESTERLY WINDS OF 30-60 KTS AT 700 MB WILL PUSH SNOW LEVELS TO
6-7K FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING AND MAXIMIZE PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES IN THE MTNS OF EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND SW
IDAHO. SW IDAHO VALLEYS AND SE OREGON COULD SEE A SHORT BREAK IN
THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING AS THE WARM ADVECTION WANES AND
PRECIPITATION PROCESS BECOMES MAINLY OROGRAPHIC. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE FLOW SHIFTS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL REINTRODUCE PRECIPITATION TO LOWER VALLEYS. SNOW
LEVELS PEAK MIDDAY SUNDAY AND MAY START TO EDGE DOWN SOME IN THE
WEST CENTRAL MTNS UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHER FORECAST SNOW
LEVELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY HAVE CUT DOWN ON
MTN VALLEY SNOW TOTALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BOISE MTNS AND
CAMAS PRAIRIE. THUS HAVE TAKEN DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THESE
ZONES. ALSO THE WARMING OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO LESS OF AN IMPACT
FOR THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS SO HAVE SHORTENED UP THE ADVISORY PERIOD
THERE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFF OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS
STILL EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER THIS RIDGE...AND MODELS VARY AND HOW
FAR NORTH THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND THUS...HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE
STAYS.  THE ECMWF BRINGS BACK PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
ENTIRE AREA DRY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
FLATTENING THE RIDGE...SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF...AND
THE GFS IS WARMER. THEREFORE...TIMING OF PRECIP AND WHETHER OR NOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE VALLEYS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...ONCE THAT TROUGH PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF RAIN AND SNOW MOVING IN. AS SATURDAY
WEARS ON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 4500 NOW AND WILL
RISE TO 9000FT IN SE OREGON AND 5500 FT IN CENTRAL IDAHO AROUND
21/06Z. SURFACE WINDS...SW 10-20 KTS IN SE OREGON...AND SE AROUND 10
KTS IN IDAHO. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...W 25-35 KTS...SHIFTING
TO NW 45-55 KTS AFTER 21/06Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST
     THIS EVENING IDZ011.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201030
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE
STRETCHING BACK TO THE DATELINE WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW TODAY.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL /150-200
PERCENT/ AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT WARM-AIR ADVECTION
LATER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL FILL IN ACROSS SE OREGON BY LATE
MORNING AND SW IDAHO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL START
OUT BETWEEN 4-5K FEET. THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES WITH A WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON
WESTERLY WINDS OF 30-60 KTS AT 700 MB WILL PUSH SNOW LEVELS TO
6-7K FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING AND MAXIMIZE PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES IN THE MTNS OF EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND SW
IDAHO. SW IDAHO VALLEYS AND SE OREGON COULD SEE A SHORT BREAK IN
THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING AS THE WARM ADVECTION WANES AND
PRECIPITATION PROCESS BECOMES MAINLY OROGRAPHIC. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE FLOW SHIFTS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL REINTRODUCE PRECIPITATION TO LOWER VALLEYS. SNOW
LEVELS PEAK MIDDAY SUNDAY AND MAY START TO EDGE DOWN SOME IN THE
WEST CENTRAL MTNS UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHER FORECAST SNOW
LEVELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY HAVE CUT DOWN ON
MTN VALLEY SNOW TOTALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BOISE MTNS AND
CAMAS PRAIRIE. THUS HAVE TAKEN DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THESE
ZONES. ALSO THE WARMING OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO LESS OF AN IMPACT
FOR THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS SO HAVE SHORTENED UP THE ADVISORY PERIOD
THERE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFF OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS
STILL EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER THIS RIDGE...AND MODELS VARY AND HOW
FAR NORTH THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND THUS...HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE
STAYS.  THE ECMWF BRINGS BACK PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
ENTIRE AREA DRY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
FLATTENING THE RIDGE...SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF...AND
THE GFS IS WARMER. THEREFORE...TIMING OF PRECIP AND WHETHER OR NOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE VALLEYS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...ONCE THAT TROUGH PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF RAIN AND SNOW MOVING IN. AS SATURDAY
WEARS ON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 4500 NOW AND WILL
RISE TO 9000FT IN SE OREGON AND 5500 FT IN CENTRAL IDAHO AROUND
21/06Z. SURFACE WINDS...SW 10-20 KTS IN SE OREGON...AND SE AROUND 10
KTS IN IDAHO. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...W 25-35 KTS...SHIFTING
TO NW 45-55 KTS AFTER 21/06Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST
     THIS EVENING IDZ011.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS66 KPDT 200948
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
148 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD IS
IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST...RIDING ON A
150KT JET STREAM. THIS SYSTEM CONTAINS AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND
WIND WHICH IS HEADED FOR THE CWA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN AROUND 2500
FEET ALONG THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES THROUGH MID
DAY TODAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES IN WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY UNTIL 4 PM TODAY.
AFTER THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL TAKE A JUMP UP TO AROUND 6000-7000 FEET
THERE...AND UP TO 7000-8000 FEET OVER OREGON. ELSEWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA THIS LOOKS LIKE PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT. RAIN WILL
BEGIN THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES AND IN THE NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEAST
OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON MOUNTAINS. NUMEROUS AREAL FLOOD WATCHES
ARE IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE CWA. A MAIN STEM FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NACHES
RIVER AT NACHES AND THE DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR MOODY RIVER FORECAST
POINTS. THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL JET STREAM AND A MOUNTAIN
WAVE EFFECT. THESE HIGH WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN A
MOUNTAIN WAVE EFFECT FROM STRONG WEST WINDS MOVING OVER THE CASCADES
INTO EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON SUNDAY FOR THE YAKIMA
VALLEY...THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON/WASHINGTON AND THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS OF OREGON/WASHINGTON. HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...THE
SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND CENTRAL OREGON FROM NOON
TODAY THROUGH NOON ON SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN WILL DECREASE BY
SUNDAY MID DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE MILD FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR WITH MAXIMUM READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AREA WIDE. 88

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF VALLEY
FOG. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE GFS HAS SLOWED
THIS SYSTEM DOWN A BIT WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER. BOTH
MODELS HAVE REDUCED THE ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORM. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE TURNING COLDER BY CHRISTMAS DAY BUT
ALSO DRIER. THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS WEDNESDAY SO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MOSTLY
MFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND BR. RAIN WILL TAPER
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.
WINDS COULD REACH 20-30KT WITH GUSTS TO 45KT FROM THE WSW AT
KPDT...KALW...KRDM...AND KBDN. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  46  57  39 /  90  90  80  50
ALW  51  44  56  39 /  90 100  90  60
PSC  49  42  55  39 /  90  80  40  10
YKM  43  35  50  34 /  90  80  40  20
HRI  51  43  56  41 /  90  80  50  20
ELN  42  33  46  32 /  90 100  60  20
RDM  49  41  53  40 /  90  80  70  20
LGD  43  39  47  38 /  90 100 100  80
GCD  43  41  46  41 /  90 100  80  60
DLS  49  43  52  41 /  90 100  90  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ510-511.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ041-509>511.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ049-050-502-503-505>508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ044.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ507.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ508.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ024-026-027-520-521.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ029-030.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ028.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ521.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ029.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ027.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY IN THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/78/78





000
FXUS66 KPDT 200948
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
148 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD IS
IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST...RIDING ON A
150KT JET STREAM. THIS SYSTEM CONTAINS AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND
WIND WHICH IS HEADED FOR THE CWA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN AROUND 2500
FEET ALONG THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES THROUGH MID
DAY TODAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES IN WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY UNTIL 4 PM TODAY.
AFTER THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL TAKE A JUMP UP TO AROUND 6000-7000 FEET
THERE...AND UP TO 7000-8000 FEET OVER OREGON. ELSEWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA THIS LOOKS LIKE PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT. RAIN WILL
BEGIN THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES AND IN THE NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEAST
OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON MOUNTAINS. NUMEROUS AREAL FLOOD WATCHES
ARE IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE CWA. A MAIN STEM FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NACHES
RIVER AT NACHES AND THE DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR MOODY RIVER FORECAST
POINTS. THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL JET STREAM AND A MOUNTAIN
WAVE EFFECT. THESE HIGH WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN A
MOUNTAIN WAVE EFFECT FROM STRONG WEST WINDS MOVING OVER THE CASCADES
INTO EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON SUNDAY FOR THE YAKIMA
VALLEY...THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON/WASHINGTON AND THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS OF OREGON/WASHINGTON. HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...THE
SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND CENTRAL OREGON FROM NOON
TODAY THROUGH NOON ON SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN WILL DECREASE BY
SUNDAY MID DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE MILD FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR WITH MAXIMUM READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AREA WIDE. 88

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF VALLEY
FOG. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE GFS HAS SLOWED
THIS SYSTEM DOWN A BIT WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER. BOTH
MODELS HAVE REDUCED THE ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORM. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE TURNING COLDER BY CHRISTMAS DAY BUT
ALSO DRIER. THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS WEDNESDAY SO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MOSTLY
MFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND BR. RAIN WILL TAPER
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.
WINDS COULD REACH 20-30KT WITH GUSTS TO 45KT FROM THE WSW AT
KPDT...KALW...KRDM...AND KBDN. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  46  57  39 /  90  90  80  50
ALW  51  44  56  39 /  90 100  90  60
PSC  49  42  55  39 /  90  80  40  10
YKM  43  35  50  34 /  90  80  40  20
HRI  51  43  56  41 /  90  80  50  20
ELN  42  33  46  32 /  90 100  60  20
RDM  49  41  53  40 /  90  80  70  20
LGD  43  39  47  38 /  90 100 100  80
GCD  43  41  46  41 /  90 100  80  60
DLS  49  43  52  41 /  90 100  90  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ510-511.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ041-509>511.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ049-050-502-503-505>508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ044.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ507.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ508.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ024-026-027-520-521.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ029-030.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ028.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ521.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ029.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ027.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY IN THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/78/78






000
FXUS66 KPDT 200550
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
944 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION THIS
EVENING. EXPECT RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. ALL MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW RAIN SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. SNOW LEVELS
WILL QUICKLY RISE TOMORROW AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE WINDS
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S. RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT
WILL START TO BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS TOWARD MORNING WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
INCREASING. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE PERIOD OF
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT AND WILL LIKELY CORRESPOND TO THE STRONGEST
SURFACE WINDS AND HIGHEST WIND GUSTS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
THE HEAVIER RAIN GOING OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3-7 INCHES
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADE CREST, 2-5 INCHES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES,
2-4 INCHES NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT AS
MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL HAVE SHARP RISES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWERING OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY SATURDAY WITH STEADY RAIN. WINDS 5-10KT TONIGHT INCREASING
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 410 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIP THIS EVENING, THEN A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AND INCREASING WINDS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN 3500
AND 4000 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RISE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE PRECIP AND WINDS INCREASE. STILL
UNCERTAIN AS TO THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE MAIN SNOW FALL IN THESE AREAS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, AND WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS. DO HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET, IN
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THUS WILL ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN THIS AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME VERY WINDY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL WIND ADVISORIES FOR A NUMBER OF OUR CENTRAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON ZONES, AS WELL AS THE BLUE MTN FOOTHILLS. 90

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AND STRONG
DYNAMIC LIFT TO FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE JET STREAM WILL USHER IN A WARM FRONT WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN
FALLING ON THE SNOWPACK IN THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL.
AS SUCH AREA RIVERS, STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE
BANKFULL IN SOME AREAS. AT A MINIMUM 1.00-1.50 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS FOR THE 36
HOUR PERIOD FROM SUNDOWN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNUP ON MONDAY.
LOWER ELEVATIONS CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE ANYWHERE FROM 0.20 OF AN INCH
TO 1.00 INCH OF RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 6000-8000 BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WITH THE LOWER
SNOW LEVELS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
ON SUNDAY, AROUND 6000 FEET ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND RISING TO 7500-8500 FEET IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON WHILE THE WARM FRONT REMAINS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS
LOWER TO 4500-5500 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND LOWER TO 6000-7500 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR SINKING AIR
YIELDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WILL
KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  POLAN

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING OF CHRISTMAS EVE. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE HIGH...AS THE ECMWF IS MORE SUPPRESSED AND
WILL PROVIDE A MORE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. THE GFS HAS THE
RIDGE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MOISTURE OVERRUNING TO THE NORTH.
ASSUMING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER THIS WOULD PRESENT A FOG SCENARIO FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY EVENING A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
WITH MORE FAVORABLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE SNOW LEVELS AND WHEN THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW. LATEST GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS MAY NOT COOL DOWN ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
THE ECMWF HAS SNOW AT ALL LEVELS LATE CHRISTMAS EVE. RIGHT NOW SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE TOO DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH THE RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY AND LACK OF CURRENT MODEL AGREEMENT. AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA...COLD DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED. WEBER

HYDROLOGY...THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE PRECIP WILL
FALL AS SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS THERE WILL BE A COMBINATION OF RAIN AND
SNOW MELT LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AS SUCH WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCHES FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  35  49  47  56 /  20  90  90  80
ALW  37  50  45  56 /  20  90 100  90
PSC  36  48  43  55 /  20  90  80  40
YKM  34  41  36  49 /  20  90  80  40
HRI  35  49  44  58 /  20  90  80  50
ELN  31  39  34  46 /  20  90 100  60
RDM  34  49  42  55 /  60  90  80  70
LGD  34  45  40  51 /  20  90 100 100
GCD  34  48  42  51 /  30  90 100  80
DLS  35  45  44  54 /  60  90 100  90

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ041-509>511.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ510-511.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ049-050-502-503-505>508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ507.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ508.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ024-026-027-520-521.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ029-030.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ027-521.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR WESTERN
     KITTITAS COUNTY IN THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 200550
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
944 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION THIS
EVENING. EXPECT RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. ALL MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW RAIN SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. SNOW LEVELS
WILL QUICKLY RISE TOMORROW AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE WINDS
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S. RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT
WILL START TO BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS TOWARD MORNING WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
INCREASING. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE PERIOD OF
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT AND WILL LIKELY CORRESPOND TO THE STRONGEST
SURFACE WINDS AND HIGHEST WIND GUSTS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
THE HEAVIER RAIN GOING OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3-7 INCHES
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADE CREST, 2-5 INCHES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES,
2-4 INCHES NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT AS
MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL HAVE SHARP RISES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWERING OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY SATURDAY WITH STEADY RAIN. WINDS 5-10KT TONIGHT INCREASING
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 410 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIP THIS EVENING, THEN A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AND INCREASING WINDS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN 3500
AND 4000 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RISE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE PRECIP AND WINDS INCREASE. STILL
UNCERTAIN AS TO THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE MAIN SNOW FALL IN THESE AREAS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, AND WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS. DO HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET, IN
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THUS WILL ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN THIS AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME VERY WINDY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL WIND ADVISORIES FOR A NUMBER OF OUR CENTRAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON ZONES, AS WELL AS THE BLUE MTN FOOTHILLS. 90

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AND STRONG
DYNAMIC LIFT TO FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE JET STREAM WILL USHER IN A WARM FRONT WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN
FALLING ON THE SNOWPACK IN THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL.
AS SUCH AREA RIVERS, STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE
BANKFULL IN SOME AREAS. AT A MINIMUM 1.00-1.50 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS FOR THE 36
HOUR PERIOD FROM SUNDOWN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNUP ON MONDAY.
LOWER ELEVATIONS CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE ANYWHERE FROM 0.20 OF AN INCH
TO 1.00 INCH OF RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 6000-8000 BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WITH THE LOWER
SNOW LEVELS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
ON SUNDAY, AROUND 6000 FEET ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND RISING TO 7500-8500 FEET IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON WHILE THE WARM FRONT REMAINS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS
LOWER TO 4500-5500 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND LOWER TO 6000-7500 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR SINKING AIR
YIELDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WILL
KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  POLAN

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING OF CHRISTMAS EVE. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE HIGH...AS THE ECMWF IS MORE SUPPRESSED AND
WILL PROVIDE A MORE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. THE GFS HAS THE
RIDGE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MOISTURE OVERRUNING TO THE NORTH.
ASSUMING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER THIS WOULD PRESENT A FOG SCENARIO FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY EVENING A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
WITH MORE FAVORABLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE SNOW LEVELS AND WHEN THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW. LATEST GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS MAY NOT COOL DOWN ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
THE ECMWF HAS SNOW AT ALL LEVELS LATE CHRISTMAS EVE. RIGHT NOW SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE TOO DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH THE RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY AND LACK OF CURRENT MODEL AGREEMENT. AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA...COLD DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED. WEBER

HYDROLOGY...THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE PRECIP WILL
FALL AS SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS THERE WILL BE A COMBINATION OF RAIN AND
SNOW MELT LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AS SUCH WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCHES FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  35  49  47  56 /  20  90  90  80
ALW  37  50  45  56 /  20  90 100  90
PSC  36  48  43  55 /  20  90  80  40
YKM  34  41  36  49 /  20  90  80  40
HRI  35  49  44  58 /  20  90  80  50
ELN  31  39  34  46 /  20  90 100  60
RDM  34  49  42  55 /  60  90  80  70
LGD  34  45  40  51 /  20  90 100 100
GCD  34  48  42  51 /  30  90 100  80
DLS  35  45  44  54 /  60  90 100  90

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ041-509>511.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ510-511.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ049-050-502-503-505>508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ507.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ508.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ024-026-027-520-521.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ029-030.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ027-521.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR WESTERN
     KITTITAS COUNTY IN THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/







000
FXUS66 KPQR 200510
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
910 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL
SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR INDICATED SOME LIGHT
RAIN SCATTERED OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO PICK UP OVERNIGHT...AND IS SEEN LOWERING IN MODEL PROGS
FROM NEAR THE 300K ISENTROPE DOWN TO 290K AND BELOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MOST AREAS SEEING RAIN DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENTS INCREASE RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SAT MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. FLOW IS
INITIALLY OUT OF THE S TO SW SAT MORNING...BUT TURNS TO THE W DURING
THE DAY. SURFACE PRES GRADIENTS IN MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST TO RUN FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT
MORNING...BUT LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH
MAINLY FOR THE HEADLANDS AND BEACHES. THE STRONG SW FLOW IN THE
MORNING COUPLED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT MORNING. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY AT
850 MB LATER IN THE DAY...OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL ENHANCE WITH
WINDWARD TERRAIN CATCHING THE HEAVIEST RAIN...AND A BIT OF A RAIN
SHADOWING EFFECT BEGINNING TO SHOW TO THE LEEWARD SIDES OF THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE DURING THE DAY SAT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION...BUT NOT BEFORE SOME SNOW FALLS IN THE CASCADES. THE SW
FACING CASCADES OF S WA WILL BE THE MOST OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED IN
THE MORNING WHEN SNOW LEVELS REMAIN LOW...AND SO ARE LIKELY TO SEE
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. ON THE COAST...SEAS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SUBSIDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH COUPLED WITH SHORTENING WAVE
PERIODS WILL BRING AN AND TO HIGH SURF THREAT.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...BOTH GFS AND NAM ARE
TRENDING DOWN WITH QPF ON SUNDAY SO DECREASED IT TO SOME EXTENT...
BUT SINCE THAT LOOKS LIKE WHEN THE BEST OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL
OCCUR...DID NOT WANT TO LIMIT IT TOO MUCH. DID BRING INLAND VALLEY
QPF DOWN A BIT THOUGH TO REFLECT LIKELY STRONG RAIN SHADOW EFFECT
FROM THE COAST RANGE. STILL THINK WE COULD SEE RAIN RATES IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES PER 6 HRS FOR AS MANY AS 24
HOURS IN A ROW THOUGH. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FELL TODAY ON MOUNT HOOD
AND PROBABLY SOME OF THE OTHER AREA PEAKS BUT SNOW PACK IS GENERALLY
MINIMAL RIGHT NOW. DESPITE LOW SNOW PACK...LATEST HYDRO GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SOME RIVERS WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE. PLEASE REFER TO
HYDROLOGY SECTION AND CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SPIGOT LOOKS LIKE IT FINALLY SHUTS OFF SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DECREASING POPS INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO
THE AREA FROM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. HOWEVER RIVER FLOODING MAY
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AS THE SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND PRECIP DRAINS DOWN
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BOWEN/WISHAAR

&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS DIRTY
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND STARTS TO SHIFT INLAND. THIS
MARKS THE NEXT BEST SHOT FOR THE CASCADES TO FINALLY SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 2000-2500 FT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. COLDER NORTH FLOW WILL
FOLLOW AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL WELL BELOW NORMAL AS
CONDITIONS DRY OUT NEXT FRIDAY. /27

&&

.HYDROLOGY...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TYPE PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL IMPACT SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL START LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN STALL OVER THE
REGION LATER SAT AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO EARLY MON.
SIGNIFICANT SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH A LONG FETCH THAT STRETCHES
ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL FEED INTO THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM...BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF VERY LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE REGION. LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY MON...WHICH WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE COAST RANGE...FOOTHILLS...AND CASCADES. THESE AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE AROUND 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER RAIN THROUGH EARLY
MON...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS SEEING EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE N
OREGON CASCADES. THE LOWER TERRAIN IS FORECASTED TO SEE
LOWER...ALTHOUGH STILL IMPRESSIVE TOTALS. WE EXPECT 4 TO 8 INCHES TO
FALL ALONG THE COAST...AND 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS...NUMEROUS AREA RIVERS
ARE NOW PROJECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. A FEW LOCATIONS ARE EVEN
PROJECTED TO REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL OF SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON STARTING LATE SAT AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON. SOME OF THE FASTER RESPONDING RIVERS
DRAINING THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS
EARLY AS SAT EVENING. SLOWER RESPONDING AND MAIN STEM RIVERS WOULD
LIKELY NOT REACH FLOOD UNTIL LATER SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING CONCERNS...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CREATE LANDSLIDES...DEBRIS FLOWS...AND EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
IN THE VICINITY OF RECENT WILDFIRE BURN SCARS. BURN SCARS FROM TWO
LARGE FIRES THIS SUMMER...THE 36 PIT FIRE IN THE CLACKAMAS RIVER
BASIN NEAR ESTACADA AND THE DECEPTION COMPLEX NEAR OAKRIDGE...WILL
BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER HEAVY
PRECIPITATION EVENTS...A LOT DEPENDS ON EXACTLY WHERE THE BAND OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SETS UP. THE FCST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
HIGHLIGHTING OUR REGION FOR SOME OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE SHIFTS IN THE
EXACT POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD EFFECT PRECIPITATION
ESTIMATES AND RIVER FORECASTS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST
FORECASTS. RIVER FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR (ALL LOWER CASE).
PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH CONDITIONS
SLOWLY LOWERING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.  MVFR IS
INCREASING ON THE COAST AND SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF IFR DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. INLAND AREAS GENERALLY VFR BUT EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO HEAD TO LOW MVFR AROUND 12Z SAT OR SO WITH THE WARM
FRONT CLOSER TO THE AREA. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES WILL
ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 2 MILES A TIMES. THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MIDDAY SAT BUT CONTINUED RAIN AS THE
FOLLOWING FRONT REMAIN STALLED OVER NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO YIELD TO LOW MVFR AROUND 12Z SAT AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. IFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT
AND SAT MORNING. /MH

&&

.MARINE...VARIETY OF MARINE IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LARGER
LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL REACHED BUOY 46089 ABOUT 80 NM OFFSHORE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAD BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 16 AND 19 FT
BUT HAS NOW SETTLED AROUND 20 FT. NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE AROUND 16
FT AND SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR 20 FT BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. CURRENT BUOY
OBSERVATIONS COMPARE FAVORABLY TO MODEL OUTPUT SO CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST IS GOOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY...KEEPING SEAS WELL IN THE TEENS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
MAY TEMPORARILY BOTTOM OUT NEAR 10 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A
WEAK FRONT...AND ACCOMPANYING LARGER WESTERLY SWELL AROUND 15 FT
SLIDES INTO THE WATERS TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

WINDS WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO
IMPACT THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 40 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. 00Z MODEL RUNS A TOUCH WEAKER SO POSSIBILITY OF
WIDESPREAD STORM FORCE WINDS HAS DIMINISHED. THERE MAY BE AN HOUR
OR TWO BETWEEN 4 AM AND 7 AM SAT WHERE A COASTAL JET DEVELOPS AND
PUSH GUSTS UP CLOSER TO 50 KT. ADDITIONAL GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE WATERS INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK
SURGE OF WINDS ENTERS THE WATERS.

PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID WALKING AND CLIMBING ON JETTIES ALONG THE
OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CONCERN THAT
SNEAKER WAVES WILL RUN UP MUCH FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN WAVES
OBSERVED OVER THE PREVIOUS 15 TO 30 MINUTES. UNDER SIMILAR
SCENARIOS...PEOPLE HAVE BEEN KILLED BY BEING SWEPT OFF THEIR FEET
AND DRAGGED OUT TO SEA BY THE RECEDING WATER OR BY THE WATER
DISLODGING STUCK DRIFTWOOD THAT SUBSEQUENTLY ROLES OVER AN
UNSUSPECTING PERSON. PLEASE BE COGNIZANT OF THIS WHEN RECREATING
ON THE BEACHES OF THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

HIGH TIDE NEAR TOKE POINT IS EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH 11 FT ON
SATURDAY DUE TO A TIDAL ANOMALY NEAR 1 FT. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL NOT HAVE ARRIVED TO ALLOW THE FLOWS ON THE WILLAPA AND
NASELLE RIVERS TO INCREASE ENOUGH THAT MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN. WHILE THE TIDAL ANOMALY WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY LESS ON SUNDAY...THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN RIVER FLOWS
EXPECTED ON THE WILLAPA AND NASELLE RIVERS INCREASE OUR CONCERN ON
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING OCCURRING AROUND THE TOWNS OF
RAYMOND...NASELLE AND OTHER LOW LYING SPOTS AROUND WILLAPA BAY
WASHINGTON. IN FACT...BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...SEVERAL OREGON COASTAL
RIVERS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR FLOOD STAGE OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE SO
TIDAL OVERFLOW CONCERNS WILL LIKELY ENCOMPASS A LARGER PORTION OF
OUR COASTLINE. DUE TO THE RIVERS REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH INTO
MONDAY...TIDAL OVERFLOW CONCERNS COULD CERTAINLY LINGER WITH THE
HIGH TIDE MIDDAY MONDAY. EXPECT THESE ISSUES TO BE MOST PREVALENT
BETWEEN 9 AM AND 3 PM ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-
     CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
     COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
     LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
     UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5
     CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 200510
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
910 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL
SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR INDICATED SOME LIGHT
RAIN SCATTERED OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO PICK UP OVERNIGHT...AND IS SEEN LOWERING IN MODEL PROGS
FROM NEAR THE 300K ISENTROPE DOWN TO 290K AND BELOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MOST AREAS SEEING RAIN DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENTS INCREASE RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SAT MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. FLOW IS
INITIALLY OUT OF THE S TO SW SAT MORNING...BUT TURNS TO THE W DURING
THE DAY. SURFACE PRES GRADIENTS IN MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST TO RUN FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT
MORNING...BUT LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH
MAINLY FOR THE HEADLANDS AND BEACHES. THE STRONG SW FLOW IN THE
MORNING COUPLED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT MORNING. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY AT
850 MB LATER IN THE DAY...OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL ENHANCE WITH
WINDWARD TERRAIN CATCHING THE HEAVIEST RAIN...AND A BIT OF A RAIN
SHADOWING EFFECT BEGINNING TO SHOW TO THE LEEWARD SIDES OF THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE DURING THE DAY SAT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION...BUT NOT BEFORE SOME SNOW FALLS IN THE CASCADES. THE SW
FACING CASCADES OF S WA WILL BE THE MOST OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED IN
THE MORNING WHEN SNOW LEVELS REMAIN LOW...AND SO ARE LIKELY TO SEE
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. ON THE COAST...SEAS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SUBSIDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH COUPLED WITH SHORTENING WAVE
PERIODS WILL BRING AN AND TO HIGH SURF THREAT.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...BOTH GFS AND NAM ARE
TRENDING DOWN WITH QPF ON SUNDAY SO DECREASED IT TO SOME EXTENT...
BUT SINCE THAT LOOKS LIKE WHEN THE BEST OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL
OCCUR...DID NOT WANT TO LIMIT IT TOO MUCH. DID BRING INLAND VALLEY
QPF DOWN A BIT THOUGH TO REFLECT LIKELY STRONG RAIN SHADOW EFFECT
FROM THE COAST RANGE. STILL THINK WE COULD SEE RAIN RATES IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES PER 6 HRS FOR AS MANY AS 24
HOURS IN A ROW THOUGH. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FELL TODAY ON MOUNT HOOD
AND PROBABLY SOME OF THE OTHER AREA PEAKS BUT SNOW PACK IS GENERALLY
MINIMAL RIGHT NOW. DESPITE LOW SNOW PACK...LATEST HYDRO GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SOME RIVERS WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE. PLEASE REFER TO
HYDROLOGY SECTION AND CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SPIGOT LOOKS LIKE IT FINALLY SHUTS OFF SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DECREASING POPS INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO
THE AREA FROM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. HOWEVER RIVER FLOODING MAY
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AS THE SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND PRECIP DRAINS DOWN
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BOWEN/WISHAAR

&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS DIRTY
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND STARTS TO SHIFT INLAND. THIS
MARKS THE NEXT BEST SHOT FOR THE CASCADES TO FINALLY SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 2000-2500 FT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. COLDER NORTH FLOW WILL
FOLLOW AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL WELL BELOW NORMAL AS
CONDITIONS DRY OUT NEXT FRIDAY. /27

&&

.HYDROLOGY...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TYPE PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL IMPACT SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL START LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN STALL OVER THE
REGION LATER SAT AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO EARLY MON.
SIGNIFICANT SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH A LONG FETCH THAT STRETCHES
ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL FEED INTO THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM...BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF VERY LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE REGION. LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY MON...WHICH WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE COAST RANGE...FOOTHILLS...AND CASCADES. THESE AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE AROUND 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER RAIN THROUGH EARLY
MON...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS SEEING EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE N
OREGON CASCADES. THE LOWER TERRAIN IS FORECASTED TO SEE
LOWER...ALTHOUGH STILL IMPRESSIVE TOTALS. WE EXPECT 4 TO 8 INCHES TO
FALL ALONG THE COAST...AND 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS...NUMEROUS AREA RIVERS
ARE NOW PROJECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. A FEW LOCATIONS ARE EVEN
PROJECTED TO REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL OF SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON STARTING LATE SAT AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON. SOME OF THE FASTER RESPONDING RIVERS
DRAINING THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS
EARLY AS SAT EVENING. SLOWER RESPONDING AND MAIN STEM RIVERS WOULD
LIKELY NOT REACH FLOOD UNTIL LATER SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING CONCERNS...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CREATE LANDSLIDES...DEBRIS FLOWS...AND EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
IN THE VICINITY OF RECENT WILDFIRE BURN SCARS. BURN SCARS FROM TWO
LARGE FIRES THIS SUMMER...THE 36 PIT FIRE IN THE CLACKAMAS RIVER
BASIN NEAR ESTACADA AND THE DECEPTION COMPLEX NEAR OAKRIDGE...WILL
BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER HEAVY
PRECIPITATION EVENTS...A LOT DEPENDS ON EXACTLY WHERE THE BAND OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SETS UP. THE FCST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
HIGHLIGHTING OUR REGION FOR SOME OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE SHIFTS IN THE
EXACT POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD EFFECT PRECIPITATION
ESTIMATES AND RIVER FORECASTS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST
FORECASTS. RIVER FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR (ALL LOWER CASE).
PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH CONDITIONS
SLOWLY LOWERING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.  MVFR IS
INCREASING ON THE COAST AND SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF IFR DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. INLAND AREAS GENERALLY VFR BUT EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO HEAD TO LOW MVFR AROUND 12Z SAT OR SO WITH THE WARM
FRONT CLOSER TO THE AREA. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES WILL
ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 2 MILES A TIMES. THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MIDDAY SAT BUT CONTINUED RAIN AS THE
FOLLOWING FRONT REMAIN STALLED OVER NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO YIELD TO LOW MVFR AROUND 12Z SAT AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. IFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT
AND SAT MORNING. /MH

&&

.MARINE...VARIETY OF MARINE IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LARGER
LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL REACHED BUOY 46089 ABOUT 80 NM OFFSHORE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAD BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 16 AND 19 FT
BUT HAS NOW SETTLED AROUND 20 FT. NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE AROUND 16
FT AND SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR 20 FT BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. CURRENT BUOY
OBSERVATIONS COMPARE FAVORABLY TO MODEL OUTPUT SO CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST IS GOOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY...KEEPING SEAS WELL IN THE TEENS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
MAY TEMPORARILY BOTTOM OUT NEAR 10 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A
WEAK FRONT...AND ACCOMPANYING LARGER WESTERLY SWELL AROUND 15 FT
SLIDES INTO THE WATERS TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

WINDS WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO
IMPACT THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 40 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. 00Z MODEL RUNS A TOUCH WEAKER SO POSSIBILITY OF
WIDESPREAD STORM FORCE WINDS HAS DIMINISHED. THERE MAY BE AN HOUR
OR TWO BETWEEN 4 AM AND 7 AM SAT WHERE A COASTAL JET DEVELOPS AND
PUSH GUSTS UP CLOSER TO 50 KT. ADDITIONAL GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE WATERS INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK
SURGE OF WINDS ENTERS THE WATERS.

PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID WALKING AND CLIMBING ON JETTIES ALONG THE
OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CONCERN THAT
SNEAKER WAVES WILL RUN UP MUCH FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN WAVES
OBSERVED OVER THE PREVIOUS 15 TO 30 MINUTES. UNDER SIMILAR
SCENARIOS...PEOPLE HAVE BEEN KILLED BY BEING SWEPT OFF THEIR FEET
AND DRAGGED OUT TO SEA BY THE RECEDING WATER OR BY THE WATER
DISLODGING STUCK DRIFTWOOD THAT SUBSEQUENTLY ROLES OVER AN
UNSUSPECTING PERSON. PLEASE BE COGNIZANT OF THIS WHEN RECREATING
ON THE BEACHES OF THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

HIGH TIDE NEAR TOKE POINT IS EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH 11 FT ON
SATURDAY DUE TO A TIDAL ANOMALY NEAR 1 FT. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL NOT HAVE ARRIVED TO ALLOW THE FLOWS ON THE WILLAPA AND
NASELLE RIVERS TO INCREASE ENOUGH THAT MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN. WHILE THE TIDAL ANOMALY WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY LESS ON SUNDAY...THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN RIVER FLOWS
EXPECTED ON THE WILLAPA AND NASELLE RIVERS INCREASE OUR CONCERN ON
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING OCCURRING AROUND THE TOWNS OF
RAYMOND...NASELLE AND OTHER LOW LYING SPOTS AROUND WILLAPA BAY
WASHINGTON. IN FACT...BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...SEVERAL OREGON COASTAL
RIVERS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR FLOOD STAGE OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE SO
TIDAL OVERFLOW CONCERNS WILL LIKELY ENCOMPASS A LARGER PORTION OF
OUR COASTLINE. DUE TO THE RIVERS REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH INTO
MONDAY...TIDAL OVERFLOW CONCERNS COULD CERTAINLY LINGER WITH THE
HIGH TIDE MIDDAY MONDAY. EXPECT THESE ISSUES TO BE MOST PREVALENT
BETWEEN 9 AM AND 3 PM ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-
     CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
     COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
     LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
     UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5
     CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 200428
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
822 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION THIS
EVENING. EXPECT RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. ALL MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW RAIN SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. SNOW LEVELS
WILL QUICKLY RISE TOMORROW AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE WINDS
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S. RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT
WILL START TO BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS TOWARD MORNING WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
INCREASING. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE PERIOD OF
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT AND WILL LIKELY CORRESPOND TO THE STRONGEST
SURFACE WINDS AND HIGHEST WIND GUSTS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
THE HEAVIER RAIN GOING OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3-7 INCHES
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADE CREST, 2-5 INCHES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES,
2-4 INCHES NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT AS
MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL HAVE SHARP RISES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 410 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIP THIS EVENING, THEN A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AND INCREASING WINDS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN 3500
AND 4000 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RISE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE PRECIP AND WINDS INCREASE. STILL
UNCERTAIN AS TO THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE MAIN SNOW FALL IN THESE AREAS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, AND WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS. DO HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET, IN
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THUS WILL ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN THIS AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME VERY WINDY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL WIND ADVISORIES FOR A NUMBER OF OUR CENTRAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON ZONES, AS WELL AS THE BLUE MTN FOOTHILLS. 90

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AND STRONG
DYNAMIC LIFT TO FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE JET STREAM WILL USHER IN A WARM FRONT WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN
FALLING ON THE SNOWPACK IN THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL.
AS SUCH AREA RIVERS, STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE
BANKFULL IN SOME AREAS. AT A MINIMUM 1.00-1.50 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS FOR THE 36
HOUR PERIOD FROM SUNDOWN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNUP ON MONDAY.
LOWER ELEVATIONS CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE ANYWHERE FROM 0.20 OF AN INCH
TO 1.00 INCH OF RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 6000-8000 BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WITH THE LOWER
SNOW LEVELS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
ON SUNDAY, AROUND 6000 FEET ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND RISING TO 7500-8500 FEET IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON WHILE THE WARM FRONT REMAINS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS
LOWER TO 4500-5500 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND LOWER TO 6000-7500 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR SINKING AIR
YIELDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WILL
KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  POLAN

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING OF CHRISTMAS EVE. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE HIGH...AS THE ECMWF IS MORE SUPPRESSED AND
WILL PROVIDE A MORE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. THE GFS HAS THE
RIDGE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MOISTURE OVERRUNING TO THE NORTH.
ASSUMING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER THIS WOULD PRESENT A FOG SCENARIO FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY EVENING A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
WITH MORE FAVORABLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE SNOW LEVELS AND WHEN THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW. LATEST GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS MAY NOT COOL DOWN ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
THE ECMWF HAS SNOW AT ALL LEVELS LATE CHRISTMAS EVE. RIGHT NOW SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE TOO DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH THE RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY AND LACK OF CURRENT MODEL AGREEMENT. AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA...COLD DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED. WEBER

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXITED INTO IDAHO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING, EXCEPT AT KYKM WHERE IFR WILL PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CIGS.
KRDM AND KBDN WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS TONIGHT BEGINNING AROUND 05Z/20TH.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4000 FEET TONIGHT. RAIN BEGINS AT KDLS, KRDM, AND
KBDN AROUND 05Z/20TH AND AT KYKM AT 07Z/20TH RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST
TO KPDT AND KALW BY 09Z/20TH AN ARRIVE AT KPSC BY 11Z/20TH.  POLAN

HYDROLOGY...THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE PRECIP WILL
FALL AS SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS THERE WILL BE A COMBINATION OF RAIN AND
SNOW MELT LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AS SUCH WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCHES FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  35  49  47  56 /  20  90  90  80
ALW  37  50  45  56 /  20  90 100  90
PSC  36  48  43  55 /  20  90  80  40
YKM  34  41  36  49 /  20  90  80  40
HRI  35  49  44  58 /  20  90  80  50
ELN  31  39  34  46 /  20  90 100  60
RDM  34  49  42  55 /  60  90  80  70
LGD  34  45  40  51 /  20  90 100 100
GCD  34  48  42  51 /  30  90 100  80
DLS  35  45  44  54 /  60  90 100  90

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ041-509>511.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ510-511.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ049-050-502-503-505>508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ507.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ508.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ024-026-027-520-521.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ029-030.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ027-521.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR WESTERN
     KITTITAS COUNTY IN THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/





000
FXUS66 KPDT 200428
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
822 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION THIS
EVENING. EXPECT RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. ALL MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW RAIN SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. SNOW LEVELS
WILL QUICKLY RISE TOMORROW AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE WINDS
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S. RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT
WILL START TO BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS TOWARD MORNING WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
INCREASING. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE PERIOD OF
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT AND WILL LIKELY CORRESPOND TO THE STRONGEST
SURFACE WINDS AND HIGHEST WIND GUSTS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
THE HEAVIER RAIN GOING OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3-7 INCHES
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADE CREST, 2-5 INCHES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES,
2-4 INCHES NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT AS
MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL HAVE SHARP RISES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 410 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIP THIS EVENING, THEN A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AND INCREASING WINDS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN 3500
AND 4000 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RISE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE PRECIP AND WINDS INCREASE. STILL
UNCERTAIN AS TO THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE MAIN SNOW FALL IN THESE AREAS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, AND WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS. DO HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET, IN
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THUS WILL ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN THIS AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME VERY WINDY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL WIND ADVISORIES FOR A NUMBER OF OUR CENTRAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON ZONES, AS WELL AS THE BLUE MTN FOOTHILLS. 90

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AND STRONG
DYNAMIC LIFT TO FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE JET STREAM WILL USHER IN A WARM FRONT WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN
FALLING ON THE SNOWPACK IN THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL.
AS SUCH AREA RIVERS, STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE
BANKFULL IN SOME AREAS. AT A MINIMUM 1.00-1.50 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS FOR THE 36
HOUR PERIOD FROM SUNDOWN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNUP ON MONDAY.
LOWER ELEVATIONS CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE ANYWHERE FROM 0.20 OF AN INCH
TO 1.00 INCH OF RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 6000-8000 BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WITH THE LOWER
SNOW LEVELS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
ON SUNDAY, AROUND 6000 FEET ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND RISING TO 7500-8500 FEET IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON WHILE THE WARM FRONT REMAINS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS
LOWER TO 4500-5500 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND LOWER TO 6000-7500 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR SINKING AIR
YIELDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WILL
KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  POLAN

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING OF CHRISTMAS EVE. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE HIGH...AS THE ECMWF IS MORE SUPPRESSED AND
WILL PROVIDE A MORE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. THE GFS HAS THE
RIDGE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MOISTURE OVERRUNING TO THE NORTH.
ASSUMING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER THIS WOULD PRESENT A FOG SCENARIO FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY EVENING A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
WITH MORE FAVORABLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE SNOW LEVELS AND WHEN THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW. LATEST GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS MAY NOT COOL DOWN ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
THE ECMWF HAS SNOW AT ALL LEVELS LATE CHRISTMAS EVE. RIGHT NOW SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE TOO DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH THE RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY AND LACK OF CURRENT MODEL AGREEMENT. AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA...COLD DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED. WEBER

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXITED INTO IDAHO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING, EXCEPT AT KYKM WHERE IFR WILL PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CIGS.
KRDM AND KBDN WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS TONIGHT BEGINNING AROUND 05Z/20TH.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4000 FEET TONIGHT. RAIN BEGINS AT KDLS, KRDM, AND
KBDN AROUND 05Z/20TH AND AT KYKM AT 07Z/20TH RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST
TO KPDT AND KALW BY 09Z/20TH AN ARRIVE AT KPSC BY 11Z/20TH.  POLAN

HYDROLOGY...THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE PRECIP WILL
FALL AS SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS THERE WILL BE A COMBINATION OF RAIN AND
SNOW MELT LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AS SUCH WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCHES FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  35  49  47  56 /  20  90  90  80
ALW  37  50  45  56 /  20  90 100  90
PSC  36  48  43  55 /  20  90  80  40
YKM  34  41  36  49 /  20  90  80  40
HRI  35  49  44  58 /  20  90  80  50
ELN  31  39  34  46 /  20  90 100  60
RDM  34  49  42  55 /  60  90  80  70
LGD  34  45  40  51 /  20  90 100 100
GCD  34  48  42  51 /  30  90 100  80
DLS  35  45  44  54 /  60  90 100  90

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ041-509>511.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ510-511.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ049-050-502-503-505>508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ507.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ508.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ024-026-027-520-521.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ029-030.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ027-521.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR WESTERN
     KITTITAS COUNTY IN THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/






000
FXUS66 KMFR 200423
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
823 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...WON`T BE MAKING ANY UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AS IT CURRENTLY LOOKS ON TRACK. RECENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AND LONG PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OFFSHORE
THAT WILL BE DIRECTED INTO THE PACNW OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST, THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE CASCADES/CASCADE FOOTHILLS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE WIDELY IN THE 3 TO 6
INCH RANGE. EXPECT MANY AREA RIVERS/STREAMS TO RISE RAPIDLY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, SO AREAL FLOOD WATCHES ARE OUT FOR THE COAST
AND PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH A MAIN STEM RIVER FLOOD WATCH
UP FOR THE COQUILLE AT COQUILLE. THESE CAN BE VIEWED AT
FFAMFR. STAY TUNED FOR POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF WATCHES OR UPGRADES
TO WARNINGS. RIGHT NOW, WE`RE EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH
IN MEDFORD AND AROUND 0.50 OF AN INCH IN KLAMATH FALLS FOR THE
EVENT. LIGHTER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

SNOW LEVELS RUNNING 4500 TO 5000 FEET TONIGHT INTO VERY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
PEAKS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW DOWN TO THE PASS NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS (HIGHWAY 140) BEFORE
THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING, WHILE AMOUNTS UP AT THE
RIM AT CRATER LAKE MAY EXCEED A FOOT PRIOR TO CHANGEOVER. THERE IS
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPSMFR) UP FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND THE
CASCADES HIGHLIGHTING THE SNOW/RAIN.

GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF
THE EAST SIDE SATURDAY. SEE NPWMFR FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY AT THE COAST, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW WARNING LEVELS. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/00Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRING
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO CIG AND VIS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING, BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR TO MVFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR CIGS AND VIS
TO THE WEST SIDE OVERNIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT WEST SIDE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
REMAINS STABLE BUT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS ON
SATURDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE OVER ALL WATERS TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS
WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS GOING EVEN AS SWELL
DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODERATE SWELL IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY BRING
MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE WATERS CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY
WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WIND WAVES. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
COAST AND BRING RAIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG
THE COAST AND SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
INLAND TO THE NORTH AND A MOIST AIRMASS WITH ONSHORE FLOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT HEAVY TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEP MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. MODEL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INDICATE 2 TO
4 INCHES IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES. GIVEN THE SUSTAINED DEEP WESTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE HAVE GONE TOWARDS THE
UPPER END OF THE MODEL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS
AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY. ALSO HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MUDSLIDES AND
DEBRIS FLOWS ON AREAS ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140.

INITIALLY, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...RISING TO 7000 TO 8000 FT
WEST OF THE CASCADES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 5500 FT ACROSS
THE EAST SIDE. THEN SATURDAY EVENING, EXPECT SNOW LEVELS OF 7000
TO 9000 FT OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS PERSISTING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS WITH LINGERING COLD AIR OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR HIGHER PASSES IN THE CASCADES AND FOR MOUNTAIN
PASSES EAST OF THE CASCADES. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES NEAR CRATER LAKE.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SNOW LEVELS AND SNOW IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAINFALL WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES TO THE AREA RIVERS
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING NEAR THE
COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY WHERE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS ALSO
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CASCADES AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF
DOUGLAS COUNTY. HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS INCLUDING
WATER ON ROADWAYS, LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST, IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SHASTA
VALLEY AND FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE WIND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT DECREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY. BY MONDAY, MODELS INDICATE ONLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS,
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST OREGON, AS FLOW BECOMES DRIER AND MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, AND WHILE THIS WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE NORMAL AND  KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA DRY, SEVERAL SMALL SCALE WAVES WITHIN THE SWIFT BELT OF
WESTERLIES JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE ONSHORE.
HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST,
THE UMPQUA BASIN, AND THE CASCADES NORTH OF CRATER LAKE. ALL OTHER
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO.

THIS RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD WILL NOT LAST LONG, AS A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH THE RIDGE ASIDE AND MOVE
INLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A COLD SYSTEM,
AND WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS OF 8000 TO 9000 FEET ON TUESDAY TO BELOW
4000 FEET BY EVENING ON CHRISTMAS EVE, MEANING ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
PEAKS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BEGIN AS RAIN, BEFORE GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AS THE FRONT PASSES, MAINLY OVER
THE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS OF THE COAST, HIGHER TERRAIN, AND THE EAST
SIDE. THE FRONT WILL PASS QUICKLY, MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
CHRISTMAS MORNING, LEAVING ONLY SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS.

RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO REBUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY PERIOD.
HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW SLIGHT, ALTHOUGH FURTHER
MODEL RUNS MAY SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVES
AND/OR ONSHORE FLOW. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023-616-617-619-620.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM
 PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
 GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/CC/TRW/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 200423
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
823 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...WON`T BE MAKING ANY UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AS IT CURRENTLY LOOKS ON TRACK. RECENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AND LONG PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OFFSHORE
THAT WILL BE DIRECTED INTO THE PACNW OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST, THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE CASCADES/CASCADE FOOTHILLS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE WIDELY IN THE 3 TO 6
INCH RANGE. EXPECT MANY AREA RIVERS/STREAMS TO RISE RAPIDLY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, SO AREAL FLOOD WATCHES ARE OUT FOR THE COAST
AND PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH A MAIN STEM RIVER FLOOD WATCH
UP FOR THE COQUILLE AT COQUILLE. THESE CAN BE VIEWED AT
FFAMFR. STAY TUNED FOR POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF WATCHES OR UPGRADES
TO WARNINGS. RIGHT NOW, WE`RE EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH
IN MEDFORD AND AROUND 0.50 OF AN INCH IN KLAMATH FALLS FOR THE
EVENT. LIGHTER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

SNOW LEVELS RUNNING 4500 TO 5000 FEET TONIGHT INTO VERY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
PEAKS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW DOWN TO THE PASS NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS (HIGHWAY 140) BEFORE
THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING, WHILE AMOUNTS UP AT THE
RIM AT CRATER LAKE MAY EXCEED A FOOT PRIOR TO CHANGEOVER. THERE IS
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPSMFR) UP FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND THE
CASCADES HIGHLIGHTING THE SNOW/RAIN.

GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF
THE EAST SIDE SATURDAY. SEE NPWMFR FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY AT THE COAST, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW WARNING LEVELS. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/00Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRING
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO CIG AND VIS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING, BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR TO MVFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR CIGS AND VIS
TO THE WEST SIDE OVERNIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT WEST SIDE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
REMAINS STABLE BUT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS ON
SATURDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE OVER ALL WATERS TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS
WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS GOING EVEN AS SWELL
DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODERATE SWELL IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY BRING
MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE WATERS CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY
WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WIND WAVES. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
COAST AND BRING RAIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG
THE COAST AND SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
INLAND TO THE NORTH AND A MOIST AIRMASS WITH ONSHORE FLOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT HEAVY TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEP MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. MODEL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INDICATE 2 TO
4 INCHES IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES. GIVEN THE SUSTAINED DEEP WESTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE HAVE GONE TOWARDS THE
UPPER END OF THE MODEL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS
AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY. ALSO HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MUDSLIDES AND
DEBRIS FLOWS ON AREAS ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140.

INITIALLY, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...RISING TO 7000 TO 8000 FT
WEST OF THE CASCADES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 5500 FT ACROSS
THE EAST SIDE. THEN SATURDAY EVENING, EXPECT SNOW LEVELS OF 7000
TO 9000 FT OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS PERSISTING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS WITH LINGERING COLD AIR OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR HIGHER PASSES IN THE CASCADES AND FOR MOUNTAIN
PASSES EAST OF THE CASCADES. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES NEAR CRATER LAKE.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SNOW LEVELS AND SNOW IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAINFALL WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES TO THE AREA RIVERS
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING NEAR THE
COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY WHERE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS ALSO
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CASCADES AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF
DOUGLAS COUNTY. HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS INCLUDING
WATER ON ROADWAYS, LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST, IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SHASTA
VALLEY AND FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE WIND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT DECREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY. BY MONDAY, MODELS INDICATE ONLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS,
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST OREGON, AS FLOW BECOMES DRIER AND MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, AND WHILE THIS WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE NORMAL AND  KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA DRY, SEVERAL SMALL SCALE WAVES WITHIN THE SWIFT BELT OF
WESTERLIES JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE ONSHORE.
HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST,
THE UMPQUA BASIN, AND THE CASCADES NORTH OF CRATER LAKE. ALL OTHER
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO.

THIS RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD WILL NOT LAST LONG, AS A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH THE RIDGE ASIDE AND MOVE
INLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A COLD SYSTEM,
AND WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS OF 8000 TO 9000 FEET ON TUESDAY TO BELOW
4000 FEET BY EVENING ON CHRISTMAS EVE, MEANING ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
PEAKS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BEGIN AS RAIN, BEFORE GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AS THE FRONT PASSES, MAINLY OVER
THE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS OF THE COAST, HIGHER TERRAIN, AND THE EAST
SIDE. THE FRONT WILL PASS QUICKLY, MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
CHRISTMAS MORNING, LEAVING ONLY SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS.

RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO REBUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY PERIOD.
HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW SLIGHT, ALTHOUGH FURTHER
MODEL RUNS MAY SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVES
AND/OR ONSHORE FLOW. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023-616-617-619-620.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM
 PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
 GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/CC/TRW/BPN



000
FXUS65 KBOI 200325
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
825 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LINGERING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE EXIT THE AREA. THIS HANDLED IN THE
CURRENT PACKAGE SO NOT PLANNING ANY UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

FOCUS TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM THATS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BRINGING COPIOUS AMTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A MOIST CONNECTION
EXTENDING BACK INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION STARTING LATE SATURDAY AND THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS RISE RAPIDLY...SO BIGGEST CONCERN IS HOW
HIGH ARE THEY EXPECTED TO GO AND THEREFORE THE SNOW AMOUNTS. AGREE
WITH WHAT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING WITH POTENTIALLY
HIGHER SNOW LEVELS THAN WHATS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...WHICH
WOULD ALSO CHANGE SNOW TOTALS AND THE CURRENT SNOW ADVISORY OUT
FOR THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. WILL LET THE
MIDSHIFT DO AND LARGE SCALE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IF NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED MVFR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SW IDAHO THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH BY 06Z. SNOW ABOVE 4500 FT MSL. AREAS OF MVFR
SNOW...AND RAIN BELOW 5000 FT MSL...WILL SPREAD INTO HARNEY/BAKER
COUNTIES AFTER 06Z...THEN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO AFTER 12Z. AFTER 18Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS NEAR 4500 FT MSL SATURDAY MORNING
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE REACHING 8000 FEET ACROSS SE OREGON AND 5000
FEET NEAR MCCALL SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO SWITCH TO RAIN BY
06Z SUNDAY AT KMYL REMAIN AS ALL RAIN THEREAFTER. MOSTLY MVFR RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15-25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A VERY STRONG AND WET
WINTER STORM IS ON ITS WAY INTO THE REGION TOMORROW THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST-
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. SEE THE ADVISORY FOR
DETAILS ON TIMING AND SNOW AMOUNTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE
AROUND 4000 FEET...BUT WILL RISE RAPIDLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SNOW LEVELS NEAR MCCALL WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE GROUND SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON FINAL SNOW TOTALS. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE GOING
WITH A FORECAST THAT CHANGES IT TO A MIX SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITS THE SNOW THAT WOULD OCCUR SHOULD IT REMAIN
ALL SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 9 INCHES
IN MCCALL BY MIDDAY SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING CLOSER TO 15 INCHES
SHOULD IT REMAIN ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY INCREASE MID-AFTERNOON
SATURDAY AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECT TO LAST INTO THE EVENING. AS
SNOW LEVELS RISE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...EVEN PLACES
LIKE BOGUS BASIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND REMAIN ALL RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...RIDGES ABOVE
AROUND 6000 FEET IN ERN OREGON AND ABOVE 7000 FEET IN SW IDAHO
WILL SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGH EVEN IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. TOTALS IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH IN THE VALLEYS...WITH
TOTALS...OR LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS...OF ONE TO TWO AND A HALF
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH RIVER FLOODING
OWING TO THE PRESENT CAPACITY AVAILABLE IN THE RIVER SYSTEMS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT
DECREASE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SNOW LEVELS
RANGING FROM 5000 FEET IN THE NORTH TO 8000 FEET IN THE SOUTH. ON
MONDAY SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
UNDER DRIER MORE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A BUILDING
RIDGE. MODELS ALL SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON TUESDAY...THEN WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 4500 FEET OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO UP TO 7000 FEET ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A COLD MOIST SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT
OUR REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT FORM THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE AS MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT.
CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 3000 FT UNTIL
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION HAS PASSED. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. COLD TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
     IDZ011-013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY
     IDZ028.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...CR
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT/AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 200325
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
825 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LINGERING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE EXIT THE AREA. THIS HANDLED IN THE
CURRENT PACKAGE SO NOT PLANNING ANY UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

FOCUS TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM THATS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BRINGING COPIOUS AMTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A MOIST CONNECTION
EXTENDING BACK INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION STARTING LATE SATURDAY AND THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS RISE RAPIDLY...SO BIGGEST CONCERN IS HOW
HIGH ARE THEY EXPECTED TO GO AND THEREFORE THE SNOW AMOUNTS. AGREE
WITH WHAT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING WITH POTENTIALLY
HIGHER SNOW LEVELS THAN WHATS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...WHICH
WOULD ALSO CHANGE SNOW TOTALS AND THE CURRENT SNOW ADVISORY OUT
FOR THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. WILL LET THE
MIDSHIFT DO AND LARGE SCALE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IF NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED MVFR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SW IDAHO THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH BY 06Z. SNOW ABOVE 4500 FT MSL. AREAS OF MVFR
SNOW...AND RAIN BELOW 5000 FT MSL...WILL SPREAD INTO HARNEY/BAKER
COUNTIES AFTER 06Z...THEN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO AFTER 12Z. AFTER 18Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS NEAR 4500 FT MSL SATURDAY MORNING
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE REACHING 8000 FEET ACROSS SE OREGON AND 5000
FEET NEAR MCCALL SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO SWITCH TO RAIN BY
06Z SUNDAY AT KMYL REMAIN AS ALL RAIN THEREAFTER. MOSTLY MVFR RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15-25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A VERY STRONG AND WET
WINTER STORM IS ON ITS WAY INTO THE REGION TOMORROW THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST-
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. SEE THE ADVISORY FOR
DETAILS ON TIMING AND SNOW AMOUNTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE
AROUND 4000 FEET...BUT WILL RISE RAPIDLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SNOW LEVELS NEAR MCCALL WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE GROUND SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON FINAL SNOW TOTALS. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE GOING
WITH A FORECAST THAT CHANGES IT TO A MIX SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITS THE SNOW THAT WOULD OCCUR SHOULD IT REMAIN
ALL SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 9 INCHES
IN MCCALL BY MIDDAY SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING CLOSER TO 15 INCHES
SHOULD IT REMAIN ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY INCREASE MID-AFTERNOON
SATURDAY AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECT TO LAST INTO THE EVENING. AS
SNOW LEVELS RISE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...EVEN PLACES
LIKE BOGUS BASIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND REMAIN ALL RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...RIDGES ABOVE
AROUND 6000 FEET IN ERN OREGON AND ABOVE 7000 FEET IN SW IDAHO
WILL SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGH EVEN IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. TOTALS IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH IN THE VALLEYS...WITH
TOTALS...OR LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS...OF ONE TO TWO AND A HALF
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH RIVER FLOODING
OWING TO THE PRESENT CAPACITY AVAILABLE IN THE RIVER SYSTEMS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT
DECREASE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SNOW LEVELS
RANGING FROM 5000 FEET IN THE NORTH TO 8000 FEET IN THE SOUTH. ON
MONDAY SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
UNDER DRIER MORE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A BUILDING
RIDGE. MODELS ALL SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON TUESDAY...THEN WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 4500 FEET OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO UP TO 7000 FEET ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A COLD MOIST SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT
OUR REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT FORM THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE AS MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT.
CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 3000 FT UNTIL
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION HAS PASSED. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. COLD TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
     IDZ011-013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY
     IDZ028.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...CR
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT/AB




000
FXUS66 KMFR 200213
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
613 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/00Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRING
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO CIG AND VIS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING, BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR TO MVFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR CIGS AND VIS
TO THE WEST SIDE OVERNIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT WEST SIDE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
REMAINS STABLE BUT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS ON
SATURDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE OVER ALL WATERS TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS
WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS GOING EVEN AS SWELL
DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODERATE SWELL IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY BRING
MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE WATERS CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY
WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WIND WAVES. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
COAST AND BRING RAIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG
THE COAST AND SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
INLAND TO THE NORTH AND A MOIST AIRMASS WITH ONSHORE FLOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT HEAVY TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEP MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. MODEL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INDICATE 2 TO
4 INCHES IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES. GIVEN THE SUSTAINED DEEP WESTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE HAVE GONE TOWARDS THE
UPPER END OF THE MODEL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS
AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY. ALSO HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MUDSLIDES AND
DEBRIS FLOWS ON AREAS ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140.

INITIALLY, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...RISING TO 7000 TO 8000 FT
WEST OF THE CASCADES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 5500 FT ACROSS
THE EAST SIDE. THEN SATURDAY EVENING, EXPECT SNOW LEVELS OF 7000
TO 9000 FT OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS PERSISTING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS WITH LINGERING COLD AIR OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR HIGHER PASSES IN THE CASCADES AND FOR MOUNTAIN
PASSES EAST OF THE CASCADES. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES NEAR CRATER LAKE.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SNOW LEVELS AND SNOW IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAINFALL WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES TO THE AREA RIVERS
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING NEAR THE
COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY WHERE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS ALSO
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CASCADES AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF
DOUGLAS COUNTY. HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS INCLUDING
WATER ON ROADWAYS, LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST, IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SHASTA
VALLEY AND FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE WIND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT DECREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY. BY MONDAY, MODELS INDICATE ONLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS,
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST OREGON, AS FLOW BECOMES DRIER AND MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, AND WHILE THIS WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE NORMAL AND  KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA DRY, SEVERAL SMALL SCALE WAVES WITHIN THE SWIFT BELT OF
WESTERLIES JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE ONSHORE.
HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST,
THE UMPQUA BASIN, AND THE CASCADES NORTH OF CRATER LAKE. ALL OTHER
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO.

THIS RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD WILL NOT LAST LONG, AS A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH THE RIDGE ASIDE AND MOVE
INLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A COLD SYSTEM,
AND WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS OF 8000 TO 9000 FEET ON TUESDAY TO BELOW
4000 FEET BY EVENING ON CHRISTMAS EVE, MEANING ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
PEAKS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BEGIN AS RAIN, BEFORE GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AS THE FRONT PASSES, MAINLY OVER
THE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS OF THE COAST, HIGHER TERRAIN, AND THE EAST
SIDE. THE FRONT WILL PASS QUICKLY, MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
CHRISTMAS MORNING, LEAVING ONLY SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS.

RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO REBUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY PERIOD.
HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW SLIGHT, ALTHOUGH FURTHER
MODEL RUNS MAY SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVES
AND/OR ONSHORE FLOW. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023-616-617-619-620.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM
     THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 200213
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
613 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/00Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRING
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO CIG AND VIS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING, BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR TO MVFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR CIGS AND VIS
TO THE WEST SIDE OVERNIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT WEST SIDE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
REMAINS STABLE BUT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS ON
SATURDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE OVER ALL WATERS TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS
WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS GOING EVEN AS SWELL
DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODERATE SWELL IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY BRING
MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE WATERS CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY
WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WIND WAVES. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
COAST AND BRING RAIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG
THE COAST AND SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
INLAND TO THE NORTH AND A MOIST AIRMASS WITH ONSHORE FLOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT HEAVY TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEP MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. MODEL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INDICATE 2 TO
4 INCHES IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES. GIVEN THE SUSTAINED DEEP WESTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE HAVE GONE TOWARDS THE
UPPER END OF THE MODEL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS
AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY. ALSO HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MUDSLIDES AND
DEBRIS FLOWS ON AREAS ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140.

INITIALLY, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...RISING TO 7000 TO 8000 FT
WEST OF THE CASCADES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 5500 FT ACROSS
THE EAST SIDE. THEN SATURDAY EVENING, EXPECT SNOW LEVELS OF 7000
TO 9000 FT OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS PERSISTING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS WITH LINGERING COLD AIR OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR HIGHER PASSES IN THE CASCADES AND FOR MOUNTAIN
PASSES EAST OF THE CASCADES. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES NEAR CRATER LAKE.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SNOW LEVELS AND SNOW IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAINFALL WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES TO THE AREA RIVERS
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING NEAR THE
COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY WHERE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS ALSO
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CASCADES AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF
DOUGLAS COUNTY. HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS INCLUDING
WATER ON ROADWAYS, LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST, IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SHASTA
VALLEY AND FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE WIND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT DECREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY. BY MONDAY, MODELS INDICATE ONLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS,
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST OREGON, AS FLOW BECOMES DRIER AND MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, AND WHILE THIS WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE NORMAL AND  KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA DRY, SEVERAL SMALL SCALE WAVES WITHIN THE SWIFT BELT OF
WESTERLIES JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE ONSHORE.
HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST,
THE UMPQUA BASIN, AND THE CASCADES NORTH OF CRATER LAKE. ALL OTHER
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO.

THIS RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD WILL NOT LAST LONG, AS A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH THE RIDGE ASIDE AND MOVE
INLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A COLD SYSTEM,
AND WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS OF 8000 TO 9000 FEET ON TUESDAY TO BELOW
4000 FEET BY EVENING ON CHRISTMAS EVE, MEANING ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
PEAKS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BEGIN AS RAIN, BEFORE GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AS THE FRONT PASSES, MAINLY OVER
THE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS OF THE COAST, HIGHER TERRAIN, AND THE EAST
SIDE. THE FRONT WILL PASS QUICKLY, MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
CHRISTMAS MORNING, LEAVING ONLY SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS.

RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO REBUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY PERIOD.
HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW SLIGHT, ALTHOUGH FURTHER
MODEL RUNS MAY SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVES
AND/OR ONSHORE FLOW. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023-616-617-619-620.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM
     THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 200213
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
613 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/00Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRING
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO CIG AND VIS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING, BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR TO MVFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR CIGS AND VIS
TO THE WEST SIDE OVERNIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT WEST SIDE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
REMAINS STABLE BUT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS ON
SATURDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE OVER ALL WATERS TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS
WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS GOING EVEN AS SWELL
DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODERATE SWELL IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY BRING
MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE WATERS CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY
WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WIND WAVES. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
COAST AND BRING RAIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG
THE COAST AND SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
INLAND TO THE NORTH AND A MOIST AIRMASS WITH ONSHORE FLOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT HEAVY TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEP MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. MODEL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INDICATE 2 TO
4 INCHES IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES. GIVEN THE SUSTAINED DEEP WESTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE HAVE GONE TOWARDS THE
UPPER END OF THE MODEL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS
AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY. ALSO HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MUDSLIDES AND
DEBRIS FLOWS ON AREAS ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140.

INITIALLY, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...RISING TO 7000 TO 8000 FT
WEST OF THE CASCADES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 5500 FT ACROSS
THE EAST SIDE. THEN SATURDAY EVENING, EXPECT SNOW LEVELS OF 7000
TO 9000 FT OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS PERSISTING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS WITH LINGERING COLD AIR OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR HIGHER PASSES IN THE CASCADES AND FOR MOUNTAIN
PASSES EAST OF THE CASCADES. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES NEAR CRATER LAKE.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SNOW LEVELS AND SNOW IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAINFALL WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES TO THE AREA RIVERS
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING NEAR THE
COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY WHERE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS ALSO
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CASCADES AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF
DOUGLAS COUNTY. HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS INCLUDING
WATER ON ROADWAYS, LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST, IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SHASTA
VALLEY AND FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE WIND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT DECREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY. BY MONDAY, MODELS INDICATE ONLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS,
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST OREGON, AS FLOW BECOMES DRIER AND MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, AND WHILE THIS WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE NORMAL AND  KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA DRY, SEVERAL SMALL SCALE WAVES WITHIN THE SWIFT BELT OF
WESTERLIES JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE ONSHORE.
HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST,
THE UMPQUA BASIN, AND THE CASCADES NORTH OF CRATER LAKE. ALL OTHER
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO.

THIS RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD WILL NOT LAST LONG, AS A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH THE RIDGE ASIDE AND MOVE
INLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A COLD SYSTEM,
AND WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS OF 8000 TO 9000 FEET ON TUESDAY TO BELOW
4000 FEET BY EVENING ON CHRISTMAS EVE, MEANING ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
PEAKS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BEGIN AS RAIN, BEFORE GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AS THE FRONT PASSES, MAINLY OVER
THE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS OF THE COAST, HIGHER TERRAIN, AND THE EAST
SIDE. THE FRONT WILL PASS QUICKLY, MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
CHRISTMAS MORNING, LEAVING ONLY SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS.

RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO REBUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY PERIOD.
HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW SLIGHT, ALTHOUGH FURTHER
MODEL RUNS MAY SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVES
AND/OR ONSHORE FLOW. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023-616-617-619-620.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM
     THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 200213
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
613 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/00Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRING
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO CIG AND VIS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING, BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR TO MVFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR CIGS AND VIS
TO THE WEST SIDE OVERNIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT WEST SIDE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
REMAINS STABLE BUT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS ON
SATURDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE OVER ALL WATERS TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS
WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS GOING EVEN AS SWELL
DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODERATE SWELL IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY BRING
MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE WATERS CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY
WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WIND WAVES. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
COAST AND BRING RAIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG
THE COAST AND SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
INLAND TO THE NORTH AND A MOIST AIRMASS WITH ONSHORE FLOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT HEAVY TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEP MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. MODEL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INDICATE 2 TO
4 INCHES IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES. GIVEN THE SUSTAINED DEEP WESTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE HAVE GONE TOWARDS THE
UPPER END OF THE MODEL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS
AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY. ALSO HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MUDSLIDES AND
DEBRIS FLOWS ON AREAS ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140.

INITIALLY, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...RISING TO 7000 TO 8000 FT
WEST OF THE CASCADES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 5500 FT ACROSS
THE EAST SIDE. THEN SATURDAY EVENING, EXPECT SNOW LEVELS OF 7000
TO 9000 FT OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS PERSISTING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS WITH LINGERING COLD AIR OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR HIGHER PASSES IN THE CASCADES AND FOR MOUNTAIN
PASSES EAST OF THE CASCADES. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES NEAR CRATER LAKE.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SNOW LEVELS AND SNOW IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAINFALL WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES TO THE AREA RIVERS
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING NEAR THE
COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY WHERE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS ALSO
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CASCADES AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF
DOUGLAS COUNTY. HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS INCLUDING
WATER ON ROADWAYS, LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST, IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SHASTA
VALLEY AND FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE WIND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT DECREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY. BY MONDAY, MODELS INDICATE ONLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS,
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST OREGON, AS FLOW BECOMES DRIER AND MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, AND WHILE THIS WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE NORMAL AND  KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA DRY, SEVERAL SMALL SCALE WAVES WITHIN THE SWIFT BELT OF
WESTERLIES JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE ONSHORE.
HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST,
THE UMPQUA BASIN, AND THE CASCADES NORTH OF CRATER LAKE. ALL OTHER
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO.

THIS RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD WILL NOT LAST LONG, AS A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH THE RIDGE ASIDE AND MOVE
INLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A COLD SYSTEM,
AND WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS OF 8000 TO 9000 FEET ON TUESDAY TO BELOW
4000 FEET BY EVENING ON CHRISTMAS EVE, MEANING ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
PEAKS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BEGIN AS RAIN, BEFORE GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AS THE FRONT PASSES, MAINLY OVER
THE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS OF THE COAST, HIGHER TERRAIN, AND THE EAST
SIDE. THE FRONT WILL PASS QUICKLY, MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
CHRISTMAS MORNING, LEAVING ONLY SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS.

RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO REBUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY PERIOD.
HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW SLIGHT, ALTHOUGH FURTHER
MODEL RUNS MAY SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVES
AND/OR ONSHORE FLOW. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023-616-617-619-620.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM
     THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KPDT 200015 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
410 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIP THIS EVENING, THEN A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AND INCREASING WINDS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN 3500
AND 4000 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RISE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE PRECIP AND WINDS INCREASE. STILL
UNCERTAIN AS TO THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE MAIN SNOW FALL IN THESE AREAS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, AND WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS. DO HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET, IN
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THUS WILL ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN THIS AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME VERY WINDY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL WIND ADVISORIES FOR A NUMBER OF OUR CENTRAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON ZONES, AS WELL AS THE BLUE MTN FOOTHILLS. 90

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AND STRONG
DYNAMIC LIFT TO FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE JET STREAM WILL USHER IN A WARM FRONT WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN
FALLING ON THE SNOWPACK IN THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL.
AS SUCH AREA RIVERS, STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE
BANKFULL IN SOME AREAS. AT A MINIMUM 1.00-1.50 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS FOR THE 36
HOUR PERIOD FROM SUNDOWN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNUP ON MONDAY.
LOWER ELEVATIONS CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE ANYWHERE FROM 0.20 OF AN INCH
TO 1.00 INCH OF RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 6000-8000 BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WITH THE LOWER
SNOW LEVELS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
ON SUNDAY, AROUND 6000 FEET ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND RISING TO 7500-8500 FEET IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON WHILE THE WARM FRONT REMAINS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS
LOWER TO 4500-5500 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND LOWER TO 6000-7500 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR SINKING AIR
YIELDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WILL
KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  POLAN

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING OF CHRISTMAS EVE. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE HIGH...AS THE ECMWF IS MORE SUPPRESSED AND
WILL PROVIDE A MORE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. THE GFS HAS THE
RIDGE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MOISTURE OVERRUNING TO THE NORTH.
ASSUMING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER THIS WOULD PRESENT A FOG SCENARIO FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY EVENING A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
WITH MORE FAVORABLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE SNOW LEVELS AND WHEN THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW. LATEST GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS MAY NOT COOL DOWN ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
THE ECMWF HAS SNOW AT ALL LEVELS LATE CHRISTMAS EVE. RIGHT NOW SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE TOO DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH THE RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY AND LACK OF CURRENT MODEL AGREEMENT. AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA...COLD DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXITED INTO IDAHO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING, EXCEPT AT KYKM WHERE IFR WILL PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CIGS.
KRDM AND KBDN WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS TONIGHT BEGINNING AROUND 05Z/20TH.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4000 FEET TONIGHT. RAIN BEGINS AT KDLS, KRDM, AND
KBDN AROUND 05Z/20TH AND AT KYKM AT 07Z/20TH RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST
TO KPDT AND KALW BY 09Z/20TH AN ARRIVE AT KPSC BY 11Z/20TH.  POLAN

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE PRECIP WILL
FALL AS SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS THERE WILL BE A COMBINATION OF RAIN AND
SNOW MELT LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AS SUCH WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCHES FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  49  47  56 /  20  80  90  80
ALW  39  50  45  56 /  20  80 100  90
PSC  37  48  43  55 /  20  80  80  40
YKM  35  41  36  49 /  20  80  80  40
HRI  36  49  44  58 /  20  80  80  50
ELN  32  39  34  46 /  20  90 100  60
RDM  35  49  42  55 /  50  80  80  70
LGD  35  45  40  51 /  20  90 100 100
GCD  35  48  42  51 /  20  80 100  80
DLS  36  45  44  54 /  40  90 100  90

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ041-509>511.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ510-511.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ049-050-502-503-505>508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ507.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ508.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ024-026-027-520-521.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ029-030.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ027-521.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY IN THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/89/99






000
FXUS66 KPQR 192302 CCB
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
252 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE CASCADES. MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONGER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS
REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. WE DID SEE ONE
LIGHTNING STRIKE A BIT BEFORE NOON OVER THE COAST RANGE BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE THUNDER THREAT HAS ENDED AS ANY FORCING FROM
THE TROUGH HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA.

WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE ONSET OF WHAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT. ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO DELAY THE 850
MB WESTERLY WIND SHIFT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING...850 MB WINDS OF
AROUND 50 KT SHOULD ENSURE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BOTH GFS
AND NAM ARE TRENDING DOWN WITH QPF ON SUNDAY SO DECREASED IT TO SOME
EXTENT...BUT SINCE THAT LOOKS LIKE WHEN THE BEST OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR...DID NOT WANT TO LIMIT IT TOO MUCH. DID BRING
INLAND VALLEY QPF DOWN A BIT THOUGH TO REFLECT LIKELY STRONG RAIN
SHADOW EFFECT FROM THE COAST RANGE. STILL THINK WE COULD SEE RAIN
RATES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES PER 6 HRS FOR AS
MANY AS 24 HOURS IN A ROW THOUGH. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FELL TODAY ON
MOUNT HOOD AND PROBABLY SOME OF THE OTHER AREA PEAKS BUT SNOW PACK IS
GENERALLY MINIMAL RIGHT NOW. DESPITE LOW SNOW PACK...LATEST HYDRO
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME RIVERS WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE. PLEASE REFER TO
HYDROLOGY SECTION AND CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.

HAVE BEEN DEBATING COASTAL WINDS FOR SATURDAY QUITE A BIT WITH NAM
SHOWING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS RIGHT AROUND 50 KT EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THE GFS PEAKS AT 40 TO 45 KT FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS AND THE ECM IS EVEN LOWER. DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE ANY HIGH WIND
PRODUCTS FOR BEACHES AND HEADLANDS AT THIS POINT AND WILL INSTEAD LET
THE INCOMING SHIFT REASSESS BASED ON NEW MODEL DATA THIS EVENING. IF
HIGH WINDS WERE TO OCCUR...IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WOULD BE SATURDAY
MORNING AND BEACHES AND HEADLANDS COULD GUST UP TO 60 TO 65
MPH...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT A FAIRLY MARGINAL EVENT.

FINALLY...RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DANGEROUS HIGH SURF ALONG THE BEACHES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATER
TODAY. COASTAL VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY OUT OF THE SURF ZONE
AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL REACH SHORE AND MAY SURPRISE INDIVIDUALS
WHO ARE UNAWARE. IN ADDITION...LARGE WAVES MAY WASH OVER BEACHES AND
JETTIES WITH LITTLE WARNING. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND HIGH TIDES. THIS
THREAT COULD BE ENHANCED BY HIGH FLOWS ON RIVERS IN RESPONSE TO THE
RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.

THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SPIGOT LOOKS LIKE IT FINALLY SHUTS OFF SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DECREASING POPS INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO
THE AREA FROM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. HOWEVER RIVER FLOODING MAY
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AS THE SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND PRECIP DRAINS DOWN
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BOWEN/WISHAAR

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS
AGREE ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE TUESDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THIS DIRTY RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND STARTS TO SHIFT
INLAND. THIS MARKS THE NEXT BEST SHOT FOR THE CASCADES TO FINALLY
SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 2000-2500 FT
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED OVER THE CASCADE
PASSES WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. COLDER NORTH
FLOW WILL FOLLOW AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL WELL BELOW NORMAL AS
CONDITIONS DRY OUT NEXT FRIDAY. /27

&&

.HYDROLOGY...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TYPE PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL IMPACT SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL START LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN STALL OVER THE
REGION LATER SAT AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO EARLY MON.
SIGNIFICANT SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH A LONG FETCH THAT STRETCHES
ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL FEED INTO THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM...BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF VERY LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE REGION. LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY MON...WHICH WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE COAST RANGE...FOOTHILLS...AND CASCADES. THESE AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE AROUND 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER RAIN THROUGH EARLY
MON...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS SEEING EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE N
OREGON CASCADES. THE LOWER TERRAIN IS FORECASTED TO SEE
LOWER...ALTHOUGH STILL IMPRESSIVE TOTALS. WE EXPECT 4 TO 8 INCHES TO
FALL ALONG THE COAST...AND 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS...NUMEROUS AREA RIVERS
ARE NOW PROJECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. A FEW LOCATIONS ARE EVEN
PROJECTED TO REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL OF SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON STARTING LATE SAT AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON. SOME OF THE FASTER RESPONDING RIVERS
DRAINING THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS
EARLY AS SAT EVENING. SLOWER RESPONDING AND MAIN STEM RIVERS WOULD
LIKELY NOT REACH FLOOD UNTIL LATER SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING CONCERNS...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CREATE LANDSLIDES...DEBRIS FLOWS...AND EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
IN THE VICINITY OF RECENT WILDFIRE BURN SCARS. BURN SCARS FROM TWO
LARGE FIRES THIS SUMMER...THE 36 PIT FIRE IN THE CLACKAMAS RIVER
BASIN NEAR ESTACADA AND THE DECEPTION COMPLEX NEAR OAKRIDGE...WILL
BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER HEAVY
PRECIPITATION EVENTS...A LOT DEPENDS ON EXACTLY WHERE THE BAND OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SETS UP. THE FCST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
HIGHLIGHTING OUR REGION FOR SOME OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE SHIFTS IN THE
EXACT POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD EFFECT PRECIPITATION
ESTIMATES AND RIVER FORECASTS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST
FORECASTS. RIVER FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR (ALL LOWER CASE).
PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT SPREADING WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
A DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD HIGH END IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UNSTABLE SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD STEADY RAIN INTO THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO SHIFT MORE SOLIDLY INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME. /NEUMAN


&&

.MARINE...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM IS THAT
SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE WILL NEARLY DOUBLE IN HEIGHT
TODAY...RISING INTO THE 20 TO 23 FT RANGE WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD
NEAR 18 TO 19 SECONDS. ANY SMALL CRAFT VESSELS ARE URGED TO COME
ONSHORE IMMEDIATELY AS HIGHER SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO ARRIVE. BUOY 89
ABOUT 70 MILES OFFSHORE JUMPED TO 19 FT AT 19 SECONDS AT 2 PM...AND
WILL LIKELY EXCEED 20 FT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THESE HIGHER SEAS
WILL PUSH INTO THE INNER COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM.

PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID WALKING AND CLIMBING ON JETTIES ALONG THE OREGON
AND WASHINGTON COASTS THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CONCERN THAT SNEAKER
WAVES WILL RUN UP MUCH FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN WAVES OBSERVED OVER
THE PREVIOUS 15 TO 30 MINUTES. UNDER SIMILAR SCENARIOS...PEOPLE HAVE
BEEN KILLED BY BEING SWEPT OFF THEIR FEET AND DRAGGED OUT TO SEA BY
THE RECEDING WATER OR BY THE WATER DISLODGING STUCK DRIFTWOOD THAT
SUBSEQUENTLY ROLES OVER AN UNSUSPECTING PERSON. PLEASE BE COGNIZANT
OF THIS WHEN RECREATING ON THE BEACHES OF THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON
COASTS THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE NEXT FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KT WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE GUSTS MAY APPROACH 50 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF
THE COAST AS A SHORT LIVED COASTAL JET DEVELOPS...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THE GALE WARNING FOR THE INNER WATERS MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A STORM WARNING...BUT WILL LET SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS DIGEST ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING THE CALL.

WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
SATURDAY...THIS RENEWED SHOT OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY MORNING...WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS FLIRTING WITH 20 FT MARK
FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT THE HIGHEST WINDS
TO TAPER AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL THEN
ALLOW COMBINED SEAS TO BEGIN SUBSIDING. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL GUSTS
OF 35 KT MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WATERS INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS
ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF WINDS ENTERS THE WATERS. THE GALE WARNING FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WAS EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY EVENING
TO COVER THIS PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAT
THESE 35 KT WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AGAIN...THE PRIMARY WINDOW OF CONCERN FOR THE HIGHEST WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS WILL BE SATURDAY MORNING...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THEY WILL OCCUR.

SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING
SEAS WELL IN THE TEENS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS MAY TEMPORARILY
BOTTOM OUT NEAR 10 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A WEAK FRONT...AND
ACCOMPANYING LARGER WESTERLY SWELL AROUND 15 FT SLIDES INTO THE
WATERS TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

HIGH TIDE NEAR TOKE POINT IS EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH 11 FT ON
SATURDAY DUE TO A TIDAL ANOMALY NEAR 1 FT. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL NOT HAVE ARRIVED TO ALLOW THE FLOWS ON THE WILLAPA AND
NASELLE RIVERS TO INCREASE ENOUGH THAT MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN. WHILE THE TIDAL ANOMALY WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY
LESS ON SUNDAY...THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED ON
THE WILLAPA AND NASELLE RIVERS INCREASE OUR CONCERN ON MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW FLOODING OCCURRING AROUND THE TOWNS OF RAYMOND...NASELLE
AND OTHER LOW LYING SPOTS AROUND WILLAPA BAY WASHINGTON. IN
FACT...BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...SEVERAL OREGON COASTAL RIVERS WILL LIKELY
BE NEAR FLOOD STAGE OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE SO COASTAL FLOOD
CONCERNS WILL LIKELY ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE COAST. DUE TO THE RIVERS
REMAINING HIGH AND HIGH TIDAL CYCLES CONTINUING...THESE TIDAL
OVERFLOW CONCERNS COULD CERTAINLY LINGER INTO MONDAY. EXPECT THESE
ISSUES TO BE MOST PREVALENT BETWEEN 9 AM AND 3 PM ON SUNDAY/MONDAY.
/NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR

     CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-
     CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
     COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
     LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
     UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR

     CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5
     CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
     SUNDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 192257 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE CASCADES. MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONGER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS
REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. WE DID SEE ONE
LIGHTNING STRIKE A BIT BEFORE NOON OVER THE COAST RANGE BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE THUNDER THREAT HAS ENDED AS ANY FORCING FROM
THE TROUGH HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA.

WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE ONSET OF WHAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT. ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO DELAY THE 850
MB WESTERLY WIND SHIFT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING...850 MB WINDS OF
AROUND 50 KT SHOULD ENSURE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BOTH GFS
AND NAM ARE TRENDING DOWN WITH QPF ON SUNDAY SO DECREASED IT TO SOME
EXTENT...BUT SINCE THAT LOOKS LIKE WHEN THE BEST OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR...DID NOT WANT TO LIMIT IT TOO MUCH. DID BRING
INLAND VALLEY QPF DOWN A BIT THOUGH TO REFLECT LIKELY STRONG RAIN
SHADOW EFFECT FROM THE COAST RANGE. STILL THINK WE COULD SEE RAIN
RATES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES PER 6 HRS FOR AS
MANY AS 24 HOURS IN A ROW THOUGH. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FELL TODAY ON
MOUNT HOOD AND PROBABLY SOME OF THE OTHER AREA PEAKS BUT SNOW PACK IS
GENERALLY MINIMAL RIGHT NOW. DESPITE LOW SNOW PACK...LATEST HYDRO
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME RIVERS WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE. PLEASE REFER TO
HYDROLOGY SECTION AND CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.

HAVE BEEN DEBATING COASTAL WINDS FOR SATURDAY QUITE A BIT WITH NAM
SHOWING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS RIGHT AROUND 50 KT EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THE GFS PEAKS AT 40 TO 45 KT FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS AND THE ECM IS EVEN LOWER. DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE ANY HIGH WIND
PRODUCTS FOR BEACHES AND HEADLANDS AT THIS POINT AND WILL INSTEAD LET
THE INCOMING SHIFT REASSESS BASED ON NEW MODEL DATA THIS EVENING. IF
HIGH WINDS WERE TO OCCUR...IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WOULD BE SATURDAY
MORNING AND BEACHES AND HEADLANDS COULD GUST UP TO 60 TO 65
MPH...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT A FAIRLY MARGINAL EVENT.

FINALLY...RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DANGEROUS HIGH SURF ALONG THE BEACHES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATER
TODAY. COASTAL VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY OUT OF THE SURF ZONE
AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL REACH SHORE AND MAY SURPRISE INDIVIDUALS
WHO ARE UNAWARE. IN ADDITION...LARGE WAVES MAY WASH OVER BEACHES AND
JETTIES WITH LITTLE WARNING. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND HIGH TIDES. THIS
THREAT COULD BE ENHANCED BY HIGH FLOWS ON RIVERS IN RESPONSE TO THE
RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.

THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SPIGOT LOOKS LIKE IT FINALLY SHUTS OFF SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DECREASING POPS INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO
THE AREA FROM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. HOWEVER RIVER FLOODING MAY
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AS THE SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND PRECIP DRAINS DOWN
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BOWEN/WEISHAAR

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS
AGREE ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE TUESDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THIS DIRTY RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND STARTS TO SHIFT
INLAND. THIS MARKS THE NEXT BEST SHOT FOR THE CASCADES TO FINALLY
SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 2000-2500 FT
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED OVER THE CASCADE
PASSES WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. COLDER NORTH
FLOW WILL FOLLOW AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL WELL BELOW NORMAL AS
CONDITIONS DRY OUT NEXT FRIDAY. /27

&&

.HYDROLOGY...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TYPE PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL IMPACT SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL START LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN STALL OVER THE
REGION LATER SAT AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO EARLY MON.
SIGNIFICANT SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH A LONG FETCH THAT STRETCHES
ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL FEED INTO THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM...BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF VERY LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE REGION. LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY MON...WHICH WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE COAST RANGE...FOOTHILLS...AND CASCADES. THESE AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE AROUND 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY
MON...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS SEEING EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE N
OREGON CASCADES. THE LOWER TERRAIN IS FORECAST TO SEE
LESSER...ALTHOUGH STILL IMPRESSIVE TOTALS. WE EXPECT 4 TO 8 INCHES
TO FALL ALONG THE COAST...AND 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS...NUMEROUS AREA RIVERS
ARE NOW PROJECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. A FEW LOCATIONS ARE EVEN
PROJECTED TO REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL OF SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON STARTING LATE SAT AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON. SOME OF THE FASTER RESPONDING RIVERS
DRAINING THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS
EARLY AS SAT EVENING. SLOWER RESPONDING AND MAIN STEM RIVERS WOULD
LIKELY NOT REACH FLOOD UNTIL LATER SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING CONCERNS...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CREATE LANDSLIDES...DEBRIS FLOWS...AND EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
IN THE VICINITY OF RECENT WILDFIRE BURN SCARS. BURN SCARS FROM TWO
LARGE FIRES THIS SUMMER...THE 36 PIT FIRE IN THE CLACKAMAS RIVER
BASIN NEAR ESTACADA AND THE DECEPTION COMPLEX NEAR OAKRIDGE...WILL
BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER HEAVY
PRECIPITATION EVENTS...A LOT DEPENDS ON EXACTLY WHERE THE BAND OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SETS UP. THE FCST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
HIGHLIGHTING OUR REGION FOR SOME OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE SHIFTS IN THE
EXACT POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD EFFECT PRECIPITATION
ESTIMATES AND RIVER FORECASTS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST
FORECASTS. RIVER FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR (ALL LOWER CASE).
PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT SPREADING WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
A DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD HIGH END IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UNSTABLE SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD STEADY RAIN INTO THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO SHIFT MORE SOLIDLY INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM IS
THAT SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE WILL NEARLY DOUBLE IN
HEIGHT TODAY...RISING INTO THE 20 TO 23 FT RANGE WITH A DOMINANT
PERIOD NEAR 18 TO 19 SECONDS. ANY SMALL CRAFT VESSELS ARE URGED
TO COME ONSHORE IMMEDIATELY AS HIGHER SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO
ARRIVE. BUOY 89 ABOUT 70 MILES OFFSHORE JUMPED TO 19 FT AT 19
SECONDS AT 2 PM...AND WILL LIKELY EXCEED 20 FT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. THESE HIGHER SEAS WILL PUSH INTO THE INNER COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM.

PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID WALKING AND CLIMBING ON JETTIES ALONG THE
OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CONCERN THAT
SNEAKER WAVES WILL RUN UP MUCH FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN WAVES
OBSERVED OVER THE PREVIOUS 15 TO 30 MINUTES. UNDER SIMILAR
SCENARIOS...PEOPLE HAVE BEEN KILLED BY BEING SWEPT OFF THEIR FEET
AND DRAGGED OUT TO SEA BY THE RECEDING WATER OR BY THE WATER
DISLODGING STUCK DRIFTWOOD THAT SUBSEQUENTLY ROLES OVER AN
UNSUSPECTING PERSON. PLEASE BE COGNIZANT OF THIS WHEN RECREATING
ON THE BEACHES OF THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

THE NEXT FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE GUSTS MAY APPROACH
50 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AS A SHORT LIVED COASTAL JET
DEVELOPS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THE GALE
WARNING FOR THE INNER WATERS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A STORM
WARNING...BUT WILL LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DIGEST ADDITIONAL MODEL
RUNS BEFORE MAKING THE CALL.

WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
SATURDAY...THIS RENEWED SHOT OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS ON SATURDAY MORNING...WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS FLIRTING WITH
20 FT MARK FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT THE
HIGHEST WINDS TO TAPER AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL THEN ALLOW COMBINED SEAS TO BEGIN
SUBSIDING. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY LINGER ACROSS
THE WATERS INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF WINDS
ENTERS THE WATERS. THE GALE WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING WAS EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY EVENING TO COVER THIS
PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAT THESE 35 KT
WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AGAIN...THE PRIMARY WINDOW OF CONCERN FOR THE HIGHEST WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS WILL BE SATURDAY MORNING...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THEY
WILL OCCUR.

SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING
SEAS WELL IN THE TEENS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS MAY TEMPORARILY
BOTTOM OUT NEAR 10 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A WEAK FRONT...AND
ACCOMPANYING LARGER WESTERLY SWELL AROUND 15 FT SLIDES INTO THE
WATERS TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

HIGH TIDE NEAR TOKE POINT IS EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH 11 FT ON
SATURDAY DUE TO A TIDAL ANOMALY NEAR 1 FT. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL NOT HAVE ARRIVED TO ALLOW THE FLOWS ON THE WILLAPA AND
NASELLE RIVERS TO INCREASE ENOUGH THAT MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN. WHILE THE TIDAL ANOMALY WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY LESS ON SUNDAY...THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN RIVER FLOWS
EXPECTED ON THE WILLAPA AND NASELLE RIVERS INCREASE OUR CONCERN ON
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING OCCURRING AROUND THE TOWNS OF
RAYMOND...NASELLE AND OTHER LOW LYING SPOTS AROUND WILLAPA BAY
WASHINGTON. IN FACT...BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...SEVERAL OREGON COASTAL
RIVERS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR FLOOD STAGE OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE SO
COASTAL FLOOD CONCERNS WILL LIKELY ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE COAST.
DUE TO THE RIVERS REMAINING HIGH AND HIGH TIDAL CYCLES
CONTINUING...THESE TIDAL OVERFLOW CONCERNS COULD CERTAINLY LINGER
INTO MONDAY. EXPECT THESE ISSUES TO BE MOST PREVALENT BETWEEN
9 AM AND 3 PM ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR

     CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-
     CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
     COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
     LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
     UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR

     CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5
     CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
     SUNDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 192257 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE CASCADES. MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONGER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS
REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. WE DID SEE ONE
LIGHTNING STRIKE A BIT BEFORE NOON OVER THE COAST RANGE BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE THUNDER THREAT HAS ENDED AS ANY FORCING FROM
THE TROUGH HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA.

WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE ONSET OF WHAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT. ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO DELAY THE 850
MB WESTERLY WIND SHIFT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING...850 MB WINDS OF
AROUND 50 KT SHOULD ENSURE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BOTH GFS
AND NAM ARE TRENDING DOWN WITH QPF ON SUNDAY SO DECREASED IT TO SOME
EXTENT...BUT SINCE THAT LOOKS LIKE WHEN THE BEST OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR...DID NOT WANT TO LIMIT IT TOO MUCH. DID BRING
INLAND VALLEY QPF DOWN A BIT THOUGH TO REFLECT LIKELY STRONG RAIN
SHADOW EFFECT FROM THE COAST RANGE. STILL THINK WE COULD SEE RAIN
RATES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES PER 6 HRS FOR AS
MANY AS 24 HOURS IN A ROW THOUGH. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FELL TODAY ON
MOUNT HOOD AND PROBABLY SOME OF THE OTHER AREA PEAKS BUT SNOW PACK IS
GENERALLY MINIMAL RIGHT NOW. DESPITE LOW SNOW PACK...LATEST HYDRO
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME RIVERS WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE. PLEASE REFER TO
HYDROLOGY SECTION AND CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.

HAVE BEEN DEBATING COASTAL WINDS FOR SATURDAY QUITE A BIT WITH NAM
SHOWING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS RIGHT AROUND 50 KT EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THE GFS PEAKS AT 40 TO 45 KT FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS AND THE ECM IS EVEN LOWER. DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE ANY HIGH WIND
PRODUCTS FOR BEACHES AND HEADLANDS AT THIS POINT AND WILL INSTEAD LET
THE INCOMING SHIFT REASSESS BASED ON NEW MODEL DATA THIS EVENING. IF
HIGH WINDS WERE TO OCCUR...IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WOULD BE SATURDAY
MORNING AND BEACHES AND HEADLANDS COULD GUST UP TO 60 TO 65
MPH...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT A FAIRLY MARGINAL EVENT.

FINALLY...RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DANGEROUS HIGH SURF ALONG THE BEACHES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATER
TODAY. COASTAL VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY OUT OF THE SURF ZONE
AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL REACH SHORE AND MAY SURPRISE INDIVIDUALS
WHO ARE UNAWARE. IN ADDITION...LARGE WAVES MAY WASH OVER BEACHES AND
JETTIES WITH LITTLE WARNING. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND HIGH TIDES. THIS
THREAT COULD BE ENHANCED BY HIGH FLOWS ON RIVERS IN RESPONSE TO THE
RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.

THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SPIGOT LOOKS LIKE IT FINALLY SHUTS OFF SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DECREASING POPS INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO
THE AREA FROM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. HOWEVER RIVER FLOODING MAY
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AS THE SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND PRECIP DRAINS DOWN
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BOWEN/WEISHAAR

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS
AGREE ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE TUESDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THIS DIRTY RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND STARTS TO SHIFT
INLAND. THIS MARKS THE NEXT BEST SHOT FOR THE CASCADES TO FINALLY
SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 2000-2500 FT
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED OVER THE CASCADE
PASSES WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. COLDER NORTH
FLOW WILL FOLLOW AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL WELL BELOW NORMAL AS
CONDITIONS DRY OUT NEXT FRIDAY. /27

&&

.HYDROLOGY...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TYPE PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL IMPACT SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL START LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN STALL OVER THE
REGION LATER SAT AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO EARLY MON.
SIGNIFICANT SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH A LONG FETCH THAT STRETCHES
ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL FEED INTO THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM...BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF VERY LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE REGION. LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY MON...WHICH WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE COAST RANGE...FOOTHILLS...AND CASCADES. THESE AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE AROUND 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY
MON...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS SEEING EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE N
OREGON CASCADES. THE LOWER TERRAIN IS FORECAST TO SEE
LESSER...ALTHOUGH STILL IMPRESSIVE TOTALS. WE EXPECT 4 TO 8 INCHES
TO FALL ALONG THE COAST...AND 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS...NUMEROUS AREA RIVERS
ARE NOW PROJECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. A FEW LOCATIONS ARE EVEN
PROJECTED TO REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL OF SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON STARTING LATE SAT AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON. SOME OF THE FASTER RESPONDING RIVERS
DRAINING THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS
EARLY AS SAT EVENING. SLOWER RESPONDING AND MAIN STEM RIVERS WOULD
LIKELY NOT REACH FLOOD UNTIL LATER SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING CONCERNS...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CREATE LANDSLIDES...DEBRIS FLOWS...AND EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
IN THE VICINITY OF RECENT WILDFIRE BURN SCARS. BURN SCARS FROM TWO
LARGE FIRES THIS SUMMER...THE 36 PIT FIRE IN THE CLACKAMAS RIVER
BASIN NEAR ESTACADA AND THE DECEPTION COMPLEX NEAR OAKRIDGE...WILL
BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER HEAVY
PRECIPITATION EVENTS...A LOT DEPENDS ON EXACTLY WHERE THE BAND OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SETS UP. THE FCST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
HIGHLIGHTING OUR REGION FOR SOME OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE SHIFTS IN THE
EXACT POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD EFFECT PRECIPITATION
ESTIMATES AND RIVER FORECASTS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST
FORECASTS. RIVER FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR (ALL LOWER CASE).
PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT SPREADING WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
A DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD HIGH END IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UNSTABLE SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD STEADY RAIN INTO THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO SHIFT MORE SOLIDLY INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM IS
THAT SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE WILL NEARLY DOUBLE IN
HEIGHT TODAY...RISING INTO THE 20 TO 23 FT RANGE WITH A DOMINANT
PERIOD NEAR 18 TO 19 SECONDS. ANY SMALL CRAFT VESSELS ARE URGED
TO COME ONSHORE IMMEDIATELY AS HIGHER SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO
ARRIVE. BUOY 89 ABOUT 70 MILES OFFSHORE JUMPED TO 19 FT AT 19
SECONDS AT 2 PM...AND WILL LIKELY EXCEED 20 FT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. THESE HIGHER SEAS WILL PUSH INTO THE INNER COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM.

PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID WALKING AND CLIMBING ON JETTIES ALONG THE
OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CONCERN THAT
SNEAKER WAVES WILL RUN UP MUCH FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN WAVES
OBSERVED OVER THE PREVIOUS 15 TO 30 MINUTES. UNDER SIMILAR
SCENARIOS...PEOPLE HAVE BEEN KILLED BY BEING SWEPT OFF THEIR FEET
AND DRAGGED OUT TO SEA BY THE RECEDING WATER OR BY THE WATER
DISLODGING STUCK DRIFTWOOD THAT SUBSEQUENTLY ROLES OVER AN
UNSUSPECTING PERSON. PLEASE BE COGNIZANT OF THIS WHEN RECREATING
ON THE BEACHES OF THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

THE NEXT FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE GUSTS MAY APPROACH
50 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AS A SHORT LIVED COASTAL JET
DEVELOPS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THE GALE
WARNING FOR THE INNER WATERS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A STORM
WARNING...BUT WILL LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DIGEST ADDITIONAL MODEL
RUNS BEFORE MAKING THE CALL.

WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
SATURDAY...THIS RENEWED SHOT OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS ON SATURDAY MORNING...WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS FLIRTING WITH
20 FT MARK FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT THE
HIGHEST WINDS TO TAPER AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL THEN ALLOW COMBINED SEAS TO BEGIN
SUBSIDING. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY LINGER ACROSS
THE WATERS INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF WINDS
ENTERS THE WATERS. THE GALE WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING WAS EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY EVENING TO COVER THIS
PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAT THESE 35 KT
WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AGAIN...THE PRIMARY WINDOW OF CONCERN FOR THE HIGHEST WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS WILL BE SATURDAY MORNING...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THEY
WILL OCCUR.

SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING
SEAS WELL IN THE TEENS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS MAY TEMPORARILY
BOTTOM OUT NEAR 10 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A WEAK FRONT...AND
ACCOMPANYING LARGER WESTERLY SWELL AROUND 15 FT SLIDES INTO THE
WATERS TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

HIGH TIDE NEAR TOKE POINT IS EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH 11 FT ON
SATURDAY DUE TO A TIDAL ANOMALY NEAR 1 FT. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL NOT HAVE ARRIVED TO ALLOW THE FLOWS ON THE WILLAPA AND
NASELLE RIVERS TO INCREASE ENOUGH THAT MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN. WHILE THE TIDAL ANOMALY WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY LESS ON SUNDAY...THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN RIVER FLOWS
EXPECTED ON THE WILLAPA AND NASELLE RIVERS INCREASE OUR CONCERN ON
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING OCCURRING AROUND THE TOWNS OF
RAYMOND...NASELLE AND OTHER LOW LYING SPOTS AROUND WILLAPA BAY
WASHINGTON. IN FACT...BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...SEVERAL OREGON COASTAL
RIVERS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR FLOOD STAGE OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE SO
COASTAL FLOOD CONCERNS WILL LIKELY ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE COAST.
DUE TO THE RIVERS REMAINING HIGH AND HIGH TIDAL CYCLES
CONTINUING...THESE TIDAL OVERFLOW CONCERNS COULD CERTAINLY LINGER
INTO MONDAY. EXPECT THESE ISSUES TO BE MOST PREVALENT BETWEEN
9 AM AND 3 PM ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR

     CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-
     CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
     COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
     LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
     UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR

     CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5
     CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
     SUNDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 192256 CCA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
248 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIP THIS EVENING, THEN A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AND INCREASING WINDS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN 3500
AND 4000 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RISE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE PRECIP AND WINDS INCREASE. STILL
UNCERTAIN AS TO THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE MAIN SNOW FALL IN THESE AREAS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, AND WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS. DO HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET, IN
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THUS WILL ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN THIS AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME VERY WINDY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL WIND ADVISORIES FOR A NUMBER OF OUR CENTRAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON ZONES, AS WELL AS THE BLUE MTN FOOTHILLS. 90

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AND STRONG
DYNAMIC LIFT TO FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE JET STREAM WILL USHER IN A WARM FRONT WITH DRAMATICALLY RISING
SNOW LEVELS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN FALLING ON THE SNOWPACK IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SNOWMELT AND
RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT AND THE RAIN. AS SUCH AREA RIVERS, STREAMS AND
CREEKS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE BANKFULL IN SOME AREAS. AT A MINIMUM
1.00-1.50 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE
WALLOWA MOUNTAINS FOR THE 36 HOUR PERIOD FROM SUNDOWN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNUP ON MONDAY. LOWER ELEVATIONS CAN EXPECT TO
RECEIVE ANYWHERE FROM 0.20 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 6000-8000 BY
DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WITH THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON SUNDAY, AROUND 6000 FEET
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND RISE TO
7500-8500 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON WHILE THE WARM
FRONT REMAINS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO 4500-5500
FEET ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND LOWER TO 6000-7500 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR SINKING AIR YIELDING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  POLAN

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING OF CHRISTMAS EVE. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE HIGH...AS THE ECMWF IS MORE SUPPRESSED AND
WILL PROVIDE A MORE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. THE GFS HAS THE
RIDGE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MOISTURE OVERRUNING TO THE NORTH.
ASSUMING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER THIS WOULD PRESENT A FOG SCENARIO FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY EVENING A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
WITH MORE FAVORABLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE SNOW LEVELS AND WHEN THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW. LATEST GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS MAY NOT COOL DOWN ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
THE ECMWF HAS SNOW AT ALL LEVELS LATE CHRISTMAS EVE. RIGHT NOW SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE TOO DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH THE RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY AND LACK OF CURRENT MODEL AGREEMENT. AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA...COLD DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED. WEBER

&&

.PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN THIS MORNING WITH KPDT RADAR SHOWING
RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND -RA AT KPDT AND KALW, WHICH SHOULD END BY 20Z. AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED FOR
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 20Z TO VFR.
HOWEVER, KYKM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR/IFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER 03Z/20TH EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER  TO MVFR/IFR WITH SOME FOG
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. LIFR VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.
POLAN

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE PRECIP WILL
FALL AS SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS THERE WILL BE A COMBINATION OF RAIN AND
SNOW MELT LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AS SUCH WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCHES FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  49  47  56 /  20  80  90  80
ALW  39  50  45  56 /  20  80 100  90
PSC  37  48  43  55 /  20  80  80  40
YKM  35  41  36  49 /  20  80  80  40
HRI  36  49  44  58 /  20  80  80  50
ELN  32  39  34  46 /  20  90 100  60
RDM  35  49  42  55 /  50  80  80  70
LGD  35  45  40  51 /  20  90 100 100
GCD  35  48  42  51 /  20  80 100  80
DLS  36  45  44  54 /  40  90 100  90

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ041-509>511.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ510-511.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ049-050-502-503-505>508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ507.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ508.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ024-026-027-520-521.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ029-030.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ027-521.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY IN THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/89/99













000
FXUS66 KPDT 192256 CCA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
248 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIP THIS EVENING, THEN A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AND INCREASING WINDS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN 3500
AND 4000 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RISE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE PRECIP AND WINDS INCREASE. STILL
UNCERTAIN AS TO THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE MAIN SNOW FALL IN THESE AREAS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, AND WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS. DO HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET, IN
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THUS WILL ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN THIS AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME VERY WINDY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL WIND ADVISORIES FOR A NUMBER OF OUR CENTRAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON ZONES, AS WELL AS THE BLUE MTN FOOTHILLS. 90

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AND STRONG
DYNAMIC LIFT TO FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE JET STREAM WILL USHER IN A WARM FRONT WITH DRAMATICALLY RISING
SNOW LEVELS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN FALLING ON THE SNOWPACK IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SNOWMELT AND
RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT AND THE RAIN. AS SUCH AREA RIVERS, STREAMS AND
CREEKS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE BANKFULL IN SOME AREAS. AT A MINIMUM
1.00-1.50 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE
WALLOWA MOUNTAINS FOR THE 36 HOUR PERIOD FROM SUNDOWN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNUP ON MONDAY. LOWER ELEVATIONS CAN EXPECT TO
RECEIVE ANYWHERE FROM 0.20 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 6000-8000 BY
DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WITH THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON SUNDAY, AROUND 6000 FEET
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND RISE TO
7500-8500 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON WHILE THE WARM
FRONT REMAINS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO 4500-5500
FEET ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND LOWER TO 6000-7500 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR SINKING AIR YIELDING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  POLAN

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING OF CHRISTMAS EVE. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE HIGH...AS THE ECMWF IS MORE SUPPRESSED AND
WILL PROVIDE A MORE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. THE GFS HAS THE
RIDGE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MOISTURE OVERRUNING TO THE NORTH.
ASSUMING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER THIS WOULD PRESENT A FOG SCENARIO FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY EVENING A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
WITH MORE FAVORABLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE SNOW LEVELS AND WHEN THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW. LATEST GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS MAY NOT COOL DOWN ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
THE ECMWF HAS SNOW AT ALL LEVELS LATE CHRISTMAS EVE. RIGHT NOW SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE TOO DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH THE RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY AND LACK OF CURRENT MODEL AGREEMENT. AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA...COLD DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED. WEBER

&&

.PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN THIS MORNING WITH KPDT RADAR SHOWING
RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND -RA AT KPDT AND KALW, WHICH SHOULD END BY 20Z. AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED FOR
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 20Z TO VFR.
HOWEVER, KYKM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR/IFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER 03Z/20TH EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER  TO MVFR/IFR WITH SOME FOG
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. LIFR VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.
POLAN

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE PRECIP WILL
FALL AS SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS THERE WILL BE A COMBINATION OF RAIN AND
SNOW MELT LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AS SUCH WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCHES FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  49  47  56 /  20  80  90  80
ALW  39  50  45  56 /  20  80 100  90
PSC  37  48  43  55 /  20  80  80  40
YKM  35  41  36  49 /  20  80  80  40
HRI  36  49  44  58 /  20  80  80  50
ELN  32  39  34  46 /  20  90 100  60
RDM  35  49  42  55 /  50  80  80  70
LGD  35  45  40  51 /  20  90 100 100
GCD  35  48  42  51 /  20  80 100  80
DLS  36  45  44  54 /  40  90 100  90

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ041-509>511.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ510-511.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ049-050-502-503-505>508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ507.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ508.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ024-026-027-520-521.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ029-030.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ027-521.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY IN THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/89/99














000
FXUS66 KPQR 192254 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
253 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE CASCADES. MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONGER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS
REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. WE DID SEE ONE
LIGHTNING STRIKE A BIT BEFORE NOON OVER THE COAST RANGE BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE THUNDER THREAT HAS ENDED AS ANY FORCING FROM
THE TROUGH HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA.

WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE ONSET OF WHAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT. ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO DELAY THE 850
MB WESTERLY WIND SHIFT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING...850 MB WINDS OF
AROUND 50 KT SHOULD ENSURE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BOTH GFS
AND NAM ARE TRENDING DOWN WITH QPF ON SUNDAY SO DECREASED IT TO SOME
EXTENT...BUT SINCE THAT LOOKS LIKE WHEN THE BEST OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR...DID NOT WANT TO LIMIT IT TOO MUCH. DID BRING
INLAND VALLEY QPF DOWN A BIT THOUGH TO REFLECT LIKELY STRONG RAIN
SHADOW EFFECT FROM THE COAST RANGE. STILL THINK WE COULD SEE RAIN
RATES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES PER 6 HRS FOR AS
MANY AS 24 HOURS IN A ROW THOUGH. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FELL TODAY ON
MOUNT HOOD AND PROBABLY SOME OF THE OTHER AREA PEAKS BUT SNOW PACK IS
GENERALLY MINIMAL RIGHT NOW. DESPITE LOW SNOW PACK...LATEST HYDRO
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME RIVERS WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE. PLEASE REFER TO
HYDROLOGY SECTION AND CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.

HAVE BEEN DEBATING COASTAL WINDS FOR SATURDAY QUITE A BIT WITH NAM
SHOWING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS RIGHT AROUND 50 KT EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THE GFS PEAKS AT 40 TO 45 KT FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS AND THE ECM IS EVEN LOWER. DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE ANY HIGH WIND
PRODUCTS FOR BEACHES AND HEADLANDS AT THIS POINT AND WILL INSTEAD LET
THE INCOMING SHIFT REASSESS BASED ON NEW MODEL DATA THIS EVENING. IF
HIGH WINDS WERE TO OCCUR...IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WOULD BE SATURDAY
MORNING AND BEACHES AND HEADLANDS COULD GUST UP TO 60 TO 65
MPH...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT A FAIRLY MARGINAL EVENT.

FINALLY...RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DANGEROUS HIGH SURF ALONG THE BEACHES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATER
TODAY. COASTAL VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY OUT OF THE SURF ZONE
AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL REACH SHORE AND MAY SURPRISE INDIVIDUALS
WHO ARE UNAWARE. IN ADDITION...LARGE WAVES MAY WASH OVER BEACHES AND
JETTIES WITH LITTLE WARNING. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND HIGH TIDES. THIS
THREAT COULD BE ENHANCED BY HIGH FLOWS ON RIVERS IN RESPONSE TO THE
RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.

THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SPIGOT LOOKS LIKE IT FINALLY SHUTS OFF SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DECREASING POPS INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO
THE AREA FROM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. HOWEVER RIVER FLOODING MAY
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AS THE SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND PRECIP DRAINS DOWN
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BOWEN/WEISHAAR

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS
AGREE ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE TUESDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THIS DIRTY RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND STARTS TO SHIFT
INLAND. THIS MARKS THE NEXT BEST SHOT FOR THE CASCADES TO FINALLY
SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 2000-2500 FT
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED OVER THE CASCADE
PASSES WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. COLDER NORTH
FLOW WILL FOLLOW AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL WELL BELOW NORMAL AS
CONDITIONS DRY OUT NEXT FRIDAY. /27

&&

.HYDROLOGY...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TYPE PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL IMPACT SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL START LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN STALL OVER THE
REGION LATER SAT AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO EARLY MON.
SIGNIFICANT SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH A LONG FETCH THAT STRETCHES
ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL FEED INTO THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM...BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF VERY LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE REGION. LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY MON...WHICH WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE COAST RANGE...FOOTHILLS...AND CASCADES. THESE AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE AROUND 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER RAIN THROUGH EARLY
MON...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS SEEING EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE N
OREGON CASCADES. THE LOWER TERRAIN IS FORECASTED TO SEE
LOWER...ALTHOUGH STILL IMPRESSIVE TOTALS. WE EXPECT 4 TO 8 INCHES TO
FALL ALONG THE COAST...AND 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS...NUMEROUS AREA RIVERS
ARE NOW PROJECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. A FEW LOCATIONS ARE EVEN
PROJECTED TO REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL OF SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON STARTING LATE SAT AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON. SOME OF THE FASTER RESPONDING RIVERS
DRAINING THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS
EARLY AS SAT EVENING. SLOWER RESPONDING AND MAIN STEM RIVERS WOULD
LIKELY NOT REACH FLOOD UNTIL LATER SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING CONCERNS...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CREATE LANDSLIDES...DEBRIS FLOWS...AND EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
IN THE VICINITY OF RECENT WILDFIRE BURN SCARS. BURN SCARS FROM TWO
LARGE FIRES THIS SUMMER...THE 36 PIT FIRE IN THE CLACKAMAS RIVER
BASIN NEAR ESTACADA AND THE DECEPTION COMPLEX NEAR OAKRIDGE...WILL
BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER HEAVY
PRECIPITATION EVENTS...A LOT DEPENDS ON EXACTLY WHERE THE BAND OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SETS UP. THE FCST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
HIGHLIGHTING OUR REGION FOR SOME OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE SHIFTS IN THE
EXACT POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD EFFECT PRECIPITATION
ESTIMATES AND RIVER FORECASTS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST
FORECASTS. RIVER FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR (ALL LOWER CASE).
PYLE

&&
&&


.AVIATION...A SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT SPREADING WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
A DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD HIGH END IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UNSTABLE SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD STEADY RAIN INTO THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO SHIFT MORE SOLIDLY INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME. /NEUMAN


&&

.MARINE...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM IS
THAT SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE WILL NEARLY DOUBLE IN
HEIGHT TODAY...RISING INTO THE 20 TO 23 FT RANGE WITH A DOMINANT
PERIOD NEAR 18 TO 19 SECONDS. ANY SMALL CRAFT VESSELS ARE URGED
TO COME ONSHORE IMMEDIATELY AS HIGHER SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO
ARRIVE. BUOY 89 ABOUT 70 MILES OFFSHORE JUMPED TO 19 FT AT 19
SECONDS AT 2 PM...AND WILL LIKELY EXCEED 20 FT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. THESE HIGHER SEAS WILL PUSH INTO THE INNER COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM.

PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID WALKING AND CLIMBING ON JETTIES ALONG THE
OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CONCERN THAT
SNEAKER WAVES WILL RUN UP MUCH FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN WAVES
OBSERVED OVER THE PREVIOUS 15 TO 30 MINUTES. UNDER SIMILAR
SCENARIOS...PEOPLE HAVE BEEN KILLED BY BEING SWEPT OFF THEIR FEET
AND DRAGGED OUT TO SEA BY THE RECEDING WATER OR BY THE WATER
DISLODGING STUCK DRIFTWOOD THAT SUBSEQUENTLY ROLES OVER AN
UNSUSPECTING PERSON. PLEASE BE COGNIZANT OF THIS WHEN RECREATING
ON THE BEACHES OF THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

THE NEXT FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE GUSTS MAY APPROACH
50 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AS A SHORT LIVED COASTAL JET
DEVELOPS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THE GALE
WARNING FOR THE INNER WATERS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A STORM
WARNING...BUT WILL LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DIGEST ADDITIONAL MODEL
RUNS BEFORE MAKING THE CALL.

WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
SATURDAY...THIS RENEWED SHOT OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS ON SATURDAY MORNING...WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS FLIRTING WITH
20 FT MARK FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT THE
HIGHEST WINDS TO TAPER AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL THEN ALLOW COMBINED SEAS TO BEGIN
SUBSIDING. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY LINGER ACROSS
THE WATERS INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF WINDS
ENTERS THE WATERS. THE GALE WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING WAS EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY EVENING TO COVER THIS
PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAT THESE 35 KT
WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AGAIN...THE PRIMARY WINDOW OF CONCERN FOR THE HIGHEST WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS WILL BE SATURDAY MORNING...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THEY
WILL OCCUR.

SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING
SEAS WELL IN THE TEENS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS MAY TEMPORARILY
BOTTOM OUT NEAR 10 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A WEAK FRONT...AND
ACCOMPANYING LARGER WESTERLY SWELL AROUND 15 FT SLIDES INTO THE
WATERS TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

HIGH TIDE NEAR TOKE POINT IS EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH 11 FT ON
SATURDAY DUE TO A TIDAL ANOMALY NEAR 1 FT. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL NOT HAVE ARRIVED TO ALLOW THE FLOWS ON THE WILLAPA AND
NASELLE RIVERS TO INCREASE ENOUGH THAT MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN. WHILE THE TIDAL ANOMALY WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY LESS ON SUNDAY...THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN RIVER FLOWS
EXPECTED ON THE WILLAPA AND NASELLE RIVERS INCREASE OUR CONCERN ON
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING OCCURRING AROUND THE TOWNS OF
RAYMOND...NASELLE AND OTHER LOW LYING SPOTS AROUND WILLAPA BAY
WASHINGTON. IN FACT...BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...SEVERAL OREGON COASTAL
RIVERS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR FLOOD STAGE OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE SO
COASTAL FLOOD CONCERNS WILL LIKELY ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE COAST.
DUE TO THE RIVERS REMAINING HIGH AND HIGH TIDAL CYCLES
CONTINUING...THESE TIDAL OVERFLOW CONCERNS COULD CERTAINLY LINGER
INTO MONDAY. EXPECT THESE ISSUES TO BE MOST PREVALENT BETWEEN
9 AM AND 3 PM ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR

     CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-
     CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
     COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
     LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
     UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR

     CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5
     CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
SUNDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 192254 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
253 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE CASCADES. MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONGER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS
REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. WE DID SEE ONE
LIGHTNING STRIKE A BIT BEFORE NOON OVER THE COAST RANGE BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE THUNDER THREAT HAS ENDED AS ANY FORCING FROM
THE TROUGH HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA.

WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE ONSET OF WHAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT. ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO DELAY THE 850
MB WESTERLY WIND SHIFT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING...850 MB WINDS OF
AROUND 50 KT SHOULD ENSURE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BOTH GFS
AND NAM ARE TRENDING DOWN WITH QPF ON SUNDAY SO DECREASED IT TO SOME
EXTENT...BUT SINCE THAT LOOKS LIKE WHEN THE BEST OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR...DID NOT WANT TO LIMIT IT TOO MUCH. DID BRING
INLAND VALLEY QPF DOWN A BIT THOUGH TO REFLECT LIKELY STRONG RAIN
SHADOW EFFECT FROM THE COAST RANGE. STILL THINK WE COULD SEE RAIN
RATES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES PER 6 HRS FOR AS
MANY AS 24 HOURS IN A ROW THOUGH. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FELL TODAY ON
MOUNT HOOD AND PROBABLY SOME OF THE OTHER AREA PEAKS BUT SNOW PACK IS
GENERALLY MINIMAL RIGHT NOW. DESPITE LOW SNOW PACK...LATEST HYDRO
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME RIVERS WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE. PLEASE REFER TO
HYDROLOGY SECTION AND CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.

HAVE BEEN DEBATING COASTAL WINDS FOR SATURDAY QUITE A BIT WITH NAM
SHOWING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS RIGHT AROUND 50 KT EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THE GFS PEAKS AT 40 TO 45 KT FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS AND THE ECM IS EVEN LOWER. DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE ANY HIGH WIND
PRODUCTS FOR BEACHES AND HEADLANDS AT THIS POINT AND WILL INSTEAD LET
THE INCOMING SHIFT REASSESS BASED ON NEW MODEL DATA THIS EVENING. IF
HIGH WINDS WERE TO OCCUR...IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WOULD BE SATURDAY
MORNING AND BEACHES AND HEADLANDS COULD GUST UP TO 60 TO 65
MPH...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT A FAIRLY MARGINAL EVENT.

FINALLY...RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DANGEROUS HIGH SURF ALONG THE BEACHES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATER
TODAY. COASTAL VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY OUT OF THE SURF ZONE
AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL REACH SHORE AND MAY SURPRISE INDIVIDUALS
WHO ARE UNAWARE. IN ADDITION...LARGE WAVES MAY WASH OVER BEACHES AND
JETTIES WITH LITTLE WARNING. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND HIGH TIDES. THIS
THREAT COULD BE ENHANCED BY HIGH FLOWS ON RIVERS IN RESPONSE TO THE
RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.

THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SPIGOT LOOKS LIKE IT FINALLY SHUTS OFF SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DECREASING POPS INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO
THE AREA FROM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. HOWEVER RIVER FLOODING MAY
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AS THE SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND PRECIP DRAINS DOWN
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BOWEN/WEISHAAR

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS
AGREE ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE TUESDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THIS DIRTY RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND STARTS TO SHIFT
INLAND. THIS MARKS THE NEXT BEST SHOT FOR THE CASCADES TO FINALLY
SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 2000-2500 FT
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED OVER THE CASCADE
PASSES WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. COLDER NORTH
FLOW WILL FOLLOW AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL WELL BELOW NORMAL AS
CONDITIONS DRY OUT NEXT FRIDAY. /27

&&

.HYDROLOGY...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TYPE PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL IMPACT SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL START LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN STALL OVER THE
REGION LATER SAT AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO EARLY MON.
SIGNIFICANT SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH A LONG FETCH THAT STRETCHES
ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL FEED INTO THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM...BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF VERY LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE REGION. LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY MON...WHICH WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE COAST RANGE...FOOTHILLS...AND CASCADES. THESE AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE AROUND 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER RAIN THROUGH EARLY
MON...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS SEEING EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE N
OREGON CASCADES. THE LOWER TERRAIN IS FORECASTED TO SEE
LOWER...ALTHOUGH STILL IMPRESSIVE TOTALS. WE EXPECT 4 TO 8 INCHES TO
FALL ALONG THE COAST...AND 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS...NUMEROUS AREA RIVERS
ARE NOW PROJECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. A FEW LOCATIONS ARE EVEN
PROJECTED TO REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL OF SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON STARTING LATE SAT AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON. SOME OF THE FASTER RESPONDING RIVERS
DRAINING THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS
EARLY AS SAT EVENING. SLOWER RESPONDING AND MAIN STEM RIVERS WOULD
LIKELY NOT REACH FLOOD UNTIL LATER SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING CONCERNS...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CREATE LANDSLIDES...DEBRIS FLOWS...AND EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
IN THE VICINITY OF RECENT WILDFIRE BURN SCARS. BURN SCARS FROM TWO
LARGE FIRES THIS SUMMER...THE 36 PIT FIRE IN THE CLACKAMAS RIVER
BASIN NEAR ESTACADA AND THE DECEPTION COMPLEX NEAR OAKRIDGE...WILL
BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER HEAVY
PRECIPITATION EVENTS...A LOT DEPENDS ON EXACTLY WHERE THE BAND OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SETS UP. THE FCST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
HIGHLIGHTING OUR REGION FOR SOME OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE SHIFTS IN THE
EXACT POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD EFFECT PRECIPITATION
ESTIMATES AND RIVER FORECASTS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST
FORECASTS. RIVER FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR (ALL LOWER CASE).
PYLE

&&
&&


.AVIATION...A SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT SPREADING WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
A DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD HIGH END IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UNSTABLE SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD STEADY RAIN INTO THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO SHIFT MORE SOLIDLY INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME. /NEUMAN


&&

.MARINE...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM IS
THAT SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE WILL NEARLY DOUBLE IN
HEIGHT TODAY...RISING INTO THE 20 TO 23 FT RANGE WITH A DOMINANT
PERIOD NEAR 18 TO 19 SECONDS. ANY SMALL CRAFT VESSELS ARE URGED
TO COME ONSHORE IMMEDIATELY AS HIGHER SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO
ARRIVE. BUOY 89 ABOUT 70 MILES OFFSHORE JUMPED TO 19 FT AT 19
SECONDS AT 2 PM...AND WILL LIKELY EXCEED 20 FT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. THESE HIGHER SEAS WILL PUSH INTO THE INNER COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM.

PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID WALKING AND CLIMBING ON JETTIES ALONG THE
OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CONCERN THAT
SNEAKER WAVES WILL RUN UP MUCH FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN WAVES
OBSERVED OVER THE PREVIOUS 15 TO 30 MINUTES. UNDER SIMILAR
SCENARIOS...PEOPLE HAVE BEEN KILLED BY BEING SWEPT OFF THEIR FEET
AND DRAGGED OUT TO SEA BY THE RECEDING WATER OR BY THE WATER
DISLODGING STUCK DRIFTWOOD THAT SUBSEQUENTLY ROLES OVER AN
UNSUSPECTING PERSON. PLEASE BE COGNIZANT OF THIS WHEN RECREATING
ON THE BEACHES OF THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

THE NEXT FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE GUSTS MAY APPROACH
50 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AS A SHORT LIVED COASTAL JET
DEVELOPS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THE GALE
WARNING FOR THE INNER WATERS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A STORM
WARNING...BUT WILL LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DIGEST ADDITIONAL MODEL
RUNS BEFORE MAKING THE CALL.

WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
SATURDAY...THIS RENEWED SHOT OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS ON SATURDAY MORNING...WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS FLIRTING WITH
20 FT MARK FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT THE
HIGHEST WINDS TO TAPER AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL THEN ALLOW COMBINED SEAS TO BEGIN
SUBSIDING. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY LINGER ACROSS
THE WATERS INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF WINDS
ENTERS THE WATERS. THE GALE WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING WAS EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY EVENING TO COVER THIS
PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAT THESE 35 KT
WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AGAIN...THE PRIMARY WINDOW OF CONCERN FOR THE HIGHEST WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS WILL BE SATURDAY MORNING...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THEY
WILL OCCUR.

SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING
SEAS WELL IN THE TEENS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS MAY TEMPORARILY
BOTTOM OUT NEAR 10 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A WEAK FRONT...AND
ACCOMPANYING LARGER WESTERLY SWELL AROUND 15 FT SLIDES INTO THE
WATERS TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

HIGH TIDE NEAR TOKE POINT IS EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH 11 FT ON
SATURDAY DUE TO A TIDAL ANOMALY NEAR 1 FT. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL NOT HAVE ARRIVED TO ALLOW THE FLOWS ON THE WILLAPA AND
NASELLE RIVERS TO INCREASE ENOUGH THAT MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN. WHILE THE TIDAL ANOMALY WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY LESS ON SUNDAY...THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN RIVER FLOWS
EXPECTED ON THE WILLAPA AND NASELLE RIVERS INCREASE OUR CONCERN ON
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING OCCURRING AROUND THE TOWNS OF
RAYMOND...NASELLE AND OTHER LOW LYING SPOTS AROUND WILLAPA BAY
WASHINGTON. IN FACT...BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...SEVERAL OREGON COASTAL
RIVERS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR FLOOD STAGE OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE SO
COASTAL FLOOD CONCERNS WILL LIKELY ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE COAST.
DUE TO THE RIVERS REMAINING HIGH AND HIGH TIDAL CYCLES
CONTINUING...THESE TIDAL OVERFLOW CONCERNS COULD CERTAINLY LINGER
INTO MONDAY. EXPECT THESE ISSUES TO BE MOST PREVALENT BETWEEN
9 AM AND 3 PM ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR

     CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-
     CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
     COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
     LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
     UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR

     CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5
     CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
SUNDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 192253
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
253 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
COAST AND BRING RAIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG
THE COAST AND SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
INLAND TO THE NORTH AND A MOIST AIRMASS WITH ONSHORE FLOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT HEAVY TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEP MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. MODEL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INDICATE 2 TO
4 INCHES IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGONCASCADES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. GIVEN
THE SUSTAINED DEEP WESTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE HAVE GONE TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF
THE MODEL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM
AND URBAN FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND INTO
DOUGLAS COUNTY. ALSO HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS
FLOWS ON AREAS ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140.

INITIALLY, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...RISING TO 7000 TO 8000 FT
WEST OF THE CASCADES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 5500 FT ACROSS
THE EAST SIDE. THEN SATURDAY EVENING, EXPECT SNOW LEVELS OF 7000
TO 9000 FT OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS PERSISTING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS WITH LINGERING COLD AIR OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR HIGHER PASSES IN THE CASCADES AND FOR MOUNTAIN
PASSES EAST OF THE CASCADES. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES NEAR CRATER LAKE.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SNOW LEVELS AND SNOW IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAINFALL WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES TO THE AREA RIVERS
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING NEAR THE
COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY WHERE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS ALSO
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CASCADES AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF
DOUGLAS COUNTY. HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS INCLUDING
WATER ON ROADWAYS, LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST, IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SHASTA
VALLEY AND FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE WIND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT DECREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY. BY MONDAY, MODELS INDICATE ONLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS,
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST OREGON, AS FLOW BECOMES DRIER AND MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, AND WHILE THIS WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE NORMAL AND  KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA DRY, SEVERAL SMALL SCALE WAVES WITHIN THE SWIFT BELT OF
WESTERLIES JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE ONSHORE.
HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST,
THE UMPQUA BASIN, AND THE CASCADES NORTH OF CRATER LAKE. ALL OTHER
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO.

THIS RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD WILL NOT LAST LONG, AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH THE RIDGE ASIDE AND MOVE INLAND
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A COLD SYSTEM, AND WILL
DROP SNOW LEVELS OF 8000 TO 9000 FEET ON TUESDAY TO BELOW 4000 FEET
BY EVENING ON CHRISTMAS EVE, MEANING ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BEGIN AS RAIN, BEFORE GRADUALLY CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. WINDS
WILL ALSO PICK UP AS THE FRONT PASSES, MAINLY OVER THE USUAL
PROBLEM AREAS OF THE COAST, HIGHER TERRAIN, AND THE EAST SIDE. THE
FRONT WILL PASS QUICKLY, MOVING OUT OF THE AREA  BEFORE CHRISTMAS
MORNING, LEAVING ONLY SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE AS ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS.

RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO REBUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY PERIOD.
HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW SLIGHT, ALTHOUGH FURTHER
MODEL RUNS MAY SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVES
AND/OR ONSHORE FLOW. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/18Z TAF CYCLE...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS
HAS PUSHED EAST AND VFR CIGS HAVE RETURNED. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. WIND SPEED SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN
TONIGHT FOR NORTH BEND...ROSEBURG AND MEDFORD TONIGHT AS A STRONG
WARM FRONT APPROACHES. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND IS LIKELY TO LAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
-PETRUCELLI


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TODAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET AT 18 SECONDS THIS EVENING.
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE NEXT
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
-BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023-616-617-619-620.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC/BPN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 192253
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
253 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
COAST AND BRING RAIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG
THE COAST AND SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
INLAND TO THE NORTH AND A MOIST AIRMASS WITH ONSHORE FLOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT HEAVY TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEP MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. MODEL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INDICATE 2 TO
4 INCHES IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGONCASCADES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. GIVEN
THE SUSTAINED DEEP WESTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE HAVE GONE TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF
THE MODEL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM
AND URBAN FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND INTO
DOUGLAS COUNTY. ALSO HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS
FLOWS ON AREAS ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140.

INITIALLY, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...RISING TO 7000 TO 8000 FT
WEST OF THE CASCADES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 5500 FT ACROSS
THE EAST SIDE. THEN SATURDAY EVENING, EXPECT SNOW LEVELS OF 7000
TO 9000 FT OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS PERSISTING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS WITH LINGERING COLD AIR OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR HIGHER PASSES IN THE CASCADES AND FOR MOUNTAIN
PASSES EAST OF THE CASCADES. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES NEAR CRATER LAKE.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SNOW LEVELS AND SNOW IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAINFALL WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES TO THE AREA RIVERS
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING NEAR THE
COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY WHERE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS ALSO
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CASCADES AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF
DOUGLAS COUNTY. HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS INCLUDING
WATER ON ROADWAYS, LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST, IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SHASTA
VALLEY AND FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE WIND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT DECREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY. BY MONDAY, MODELS INDICATE ONLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS,
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST OREGON, AS FLOW BECOMES DRIER AND MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, AND WHILE THIS WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE NORMAL AND  KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA DRY, SEVERAL SMALL SCALE WAVES WITHIN THE SWIFT BELT OF
WESTERLIES JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE ONSHORE.
HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST,
THE UMPQUA BASIN, AND THE CASCADES NORTH OF CRATER LAKE. ALL OTHER
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO.

THIS RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD WILL NOT LAST LONG, AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH THE RIDGE ASIDE AND MOVE INLAND
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A COLD SYSTEM, AND WILL
DROP SNOW LEVELS OF 8000 TO 9000 FEET ON TUESDAY TO BELOW 4000 FEET
BY EVENING ON CHRISTMAS EVE, MEANING ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BEGIN AS RAIN, BEFORE GRADUALLY CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. WINDS
WILL ALSO PICK UP AS THE FRONT PASSES, MAINLY OVER THE USUAL
PROBLEM AREAS OF THE COAST, HIGHER TERRAIN, AND THE EAST SIDE. THE
FRONT WILL PASS QUICKLY, MOVING OUT OF THE AREA  BEFORE CHRISTMAS
MORNING, LEAVING ONLY SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE AS ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS.

RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO REBUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY PERIOD.
HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW SLIGHT, ALTHOUGH FURTHER
MODEL RUNS MAY SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVES
AND/OR ONSHORE FLOW. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/18Z TAF CYCLE...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS
HAS PUSHED EAST AND VFR CIGS HAVE RETURNED. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. WIND SPEED SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN
TONIGHT FOR NORTH BEND...ROSEBURG AND MEDFORD TONIGHT AS A STRONG
WARM FRONT APPROACHES. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND IS LIKELY TO LAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
-PETRUCELLI


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TODAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET AT 18 SECONDS THIS EVENING.
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE NEXT
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
-BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023-616-617-619-620.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC/BPN




000
FXUS66 KPDT 192249
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
248 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIP THIS EVENING, THEN A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AND INCREASING WINDS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN 3500
AND 4000 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RISE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE PRECIP AND WINDS INCREASE. STILL
UNCERTAIN AS TO THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE MAIN SNOW FALL IN THESE AREAS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, AND WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS. DO HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET, IN
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THUS WILL ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN THIS AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME VERY WINDY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL WIND ADVISORIES FOR A NUMBER OF OUR CENTRAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON ZONES, AS WELL AS THE BLUE MTN FOOTHILLS. 90

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AND STRONG
DYNAMIC LIFT TO FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE JET STREAM WILL USHER IN A WARM FRONT WITH DRAMATICALLY RISING
SNOW LEVELS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN FALLING ON THE SNOWPACK IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SNOWMELT AND
RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT AND THE RAIN. AS SUCH AREA RIVERS, STREAMS AND
CREEKS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE BANKFULL IN SOME AREAS. AT A MINIMUM
1.00-1.50 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE
WALLOWA MOUNTAINS FOR THE 36 HOUR PERIOD FROM SUNDOWN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNUP ON MONDAY. LOWER ELEVATIONS CAN EXPECT TO
RECEIVE ANYWHERE FROM 0.20 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 6000-8000 BY
DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WITH THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON SUNDAY, AROUND 6000 FEET
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND RISE TO
7500-8500 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON WHILE THE WARM
FRONT REMAINS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO 4500-5500
FEET ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND LOWER TO 6000-7500 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR SINKING AIR YIELDING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  POLAN

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING OF CHRISTMAS EVE. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE HIGH...AS THE ECMWF IS MORE SUPPRESSED AND
WILL PROVIDE A MORE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. THE GFS HAS THE
RIDGE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MOISTURE OVERRUNING TO THE NORTH.
ASSUMING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER THIS WOULD PRESENT A FOG SCENARIO FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY EVENING A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
WITH MORE FAVORABLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE SNOW LEVELS AND WHEN THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW. LATEST GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS MAY NOT COOL DOWN ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
THE ECMWF HAS SNOW AT ALL LEVELS LATE CHRISTMAS EVE. RIGHT NOW SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE TOO DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH THE RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY AND LACK OF CURRENT MODEL AGREEMENT. AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA...COLD DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION....AVIATION...18Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN THIS MORNING WITH KPDT RADAR SHOWING RAIN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
-RA AT KPDT AND KALW, WHICH SHOULD END BY 20Z. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 20Z TO VFR. HOWEVER, KYKM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR/IFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 03Z/20TH
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER  TO MVFR/IFR WITH SOME FOG THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
LIFR VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.  POLAN

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE PRECIP WILL
FALL AS SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS THERE WILL BE A COMBINATION OF RAIN AND
SNOW MELT LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AS SUCH WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCHES FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  49  47  56 /  20  80  90  80
ALW  39  50  45  56 /  20  80 100  90
PSC  37  48  43  55 /  20  80  80  40
YKM  35  41  36  49 /  20  80  80  40
HRI  36  49  44  58 /  20  80  80  50
ELN  32  39  34  46 /  20  90 100  60
RDM  35  49  42  55 /  50  80  80  70
LGD  35  45  40  51 /  20  90 100 100
GCD  35  48  42  51 /  20  80 100  80
DLS  36  45  44  54 /  40  90 100  90

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ041-509>511.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ510-511.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ049-050-502-503-505>508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ507.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ508.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ024-026-027-520-521.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ029-030.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ027-521.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY IN THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/89/99










000
FXUS66 KPDT 192249
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
248 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIP THIS EVENING, THEN A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AND INCREASING WINDS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN 3500
AND 4000 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RISE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE PRECIP AND WINDS INCREASE. STILL
UNCERTAIN AS TO THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE MAIN SNOW FALL IN THESE AREAS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, AND WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS. DO HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET, IN
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THUS WILL ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN THIS AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME VERY WINDY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL WIND ADVISORIES FOR A NUMBER OF OUR CENTRAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON ZONES, AS WELL AS THE BLUE MTN FOOTHILLS. 90

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AND STRONG
DYNAMIC LIFT TO FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE JET STREAM WILL USHER IN A WARM FRONT WITH DRAMATICALLY RISING
SNOW LEVELS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN FALLING ON THE SNOWPACK IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SNOWMELT AND
RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT AND THE RAIN. AS SUCH AREA RIVERS, STREAMS AND
CREEKS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE BANKFULL IN SOME AREAS. AT A MINIMUM
1.00-1.50 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE
WALLOWA MOUNTAINS FOR THE 36 HOUR PERIOD FROM SUNDOWN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNUP ON MONDAY. LOWER ELEVATIONS CAN EXPECT TO
RECEIVE ANYWHERE FROM 0.20 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 6000-8000 BY
DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WITH THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON SUNDAY, AROUND 6000 FEET
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND RISE TO
7500-8500 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON WHILE THE WARM
FRONT REMAINS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO 4500-5500
FEET ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND LOWER TO 6000-7500 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR SINKING AIR YIELDING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  POLAN

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING OF CHRISTMAS EVE. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE HIGH...AS THE ECMWF IS MORE SUPPRESSED AND
WILL PROVIDE A MORE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. THE GFS HAS THE
RIDGE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MOISTURE OVERRUNING TO THE NORTH.
ASSUMING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER THIS WOULD PRESENT A FOG SCENARIO FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY EVENING A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
WITH MORE FAVORABLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE SNOW LEVELS AND WHEN THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW. LATEST GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS MAY NOT COOL DOWN ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
THE ECMWF HAS SNOW AT ALL LEVELS LATE CHRISTMAS EVE. RIGHT NOW SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE TOO DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH THE RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY AND LACK OF CURRENT MODEL AGREEMENT. AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA...COLD DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION....AVIATION...18Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN THIS MORNING WITH KPDT RADAR SHOWING RAIN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
-RA AT KPDT AND KALW, WHICH SHOULD END BY 20Z. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 20Z TO VFR. HOWEVER, KYKM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR/IFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 03Z/20TH
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER  TO MVFR/IFR WITH SOME FOG THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
LIFR VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.  POLAN

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE PRECIP WILL
FALL AS SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS THERE WILL BE A COMBINATION OF RAIN AND
SNOW MELT LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AS SUCH WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCHES FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  49  47  56 /  20  80  90  80
ALW  39  50  45  56 /  20  80 100  90
PSC  37  48  43  55 /  20  80  80  40
YKM  35  41  36  49 /  20  80  80  40
HRI  36  49  44  58 /  20  80  80  50
ELN  32  39  34  46 /  20  90 100  60
RDM  35  49  42  55 /  50  80  80  70
LGD  35  45  40  51 /  20  90 100 100
GCD  35  48  42  51 /  20  80 100  80
DLS  36  45  44  54 /  40  90 100  90

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ041-509>511.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ510-511.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ049-050-502-503-505>508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ507.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ508.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ024-026-027-520-521.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ029-030.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ027-521.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY IN THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/89/99










000
FXUS66 KPDT 192249
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
248 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIP THIS EVENING, THEN A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AND INCREASING WINDS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN 3500
AND 4000 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RISE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE PRECIP AND WINDS INCREASE. STILL
UNCERTAIN AS TO THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE MAIN SNOW FALL IN THESE AREAS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, AND WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS. DO HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET, IN
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THUS WILL ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN THIS AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME VERY WINDY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL WIND ADVISORIES FOR A NUMBER OF OUR CENTRAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON ZONES, AS WELL AS THE BLUE MTN FOOTHILLS. 90

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AND STRONG
DYNAMIC LIFT TO FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE JET STREAM WILL USHER IN A WARM FRONT WITH DRAMATICALLY RISING
SNOW LEVELS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN FALLING ON THE SNOWPACK IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SNOWMELT AND
RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT AND THE RAIN. AS SUCH AREA RIVERS, STREAMS AND
CREEKS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE BANKFULL IN SOME AREAS. AT A MINIMUM
1.00-1.50 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE
WALLOWA MOUNTAINS FOR THE 36 HOUR PERIOD FROM SUNDOWN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNUP ON MONDAY. LOWER ELEVATIONS CAN EXPECT TO
RECEIVE ANYWHERE FROM 0.20 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 6000-8000 BY
DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WITH THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON SUNDAY, AROUND 6000 FEET
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND RISE TO
7500-8500 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON WHILE THE WARM
FRONT REMAINS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO 4500-5500
FEET ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND LOWER TO 6000-7500 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR SINKING AIR YIELDING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  POLAN

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING OF CHRISTMAS EVE. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE HIGH...AS THE ECMWF IS MORE SUPPRESSED AND
WILL PROVIDE A MORE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. THE GFS HAS THE
RIDGE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MOISTURE OVERRUNING TO THE NORTH.
ASSUMING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER THIS WOULD PRESENT A FOG SCENARIO FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY EVENING A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
WITH MORE FAVORABLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE SNOW LEVELS AND WHEN THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW. LATEST GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS MAY NOT COOL DOWN ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
THE ECMWF HAS SNOW AT ALL LEVELS LATE CHRISTMAS EVE. RIGHT NOW SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE TOO DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH THE RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY AND LACK OF CURRENT MODEL AGREEMENT. AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA...COLD DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION....AVIATION...18Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN THIS MORNING WITH KPDT RADAR SHOWING RAIN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
-RA AT KPDT AND KALW, WHICH SHOULD END BY 20Z. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 20Z TO VFR. HOWEVER, KYKM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR/IFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 03Z/20TH
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER  TO MVFR/IFR WITH SOME FOG THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
LIFR VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.  POLAN

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE PRECIP WILL
FALL AS SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS THERE WILL BE A COMBINATION OF RAIN AND
SNOW MELT LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AS SUCH WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCHES FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  49  47  56 /  20  80  90  80
ALW  39  50  45  56 /  20  80 100  90
PSC  37  48  43  55 /  20  80  80  40
YKM  35  41  36  49 /  20  80  80  40
HRI  36  49  44  58 /  20  80  80  50
ELN  32  39  34  46 /  20  90 100  60
RDM  35  49  42  55 /  50  80  80  70
LGD  35  45  40  51 /  20  90 100 100
GCD  35  48  42  51 /  20  80 100  80
DLS  36  45  44  54 /  40  90 100  90

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ041-509>511.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ510-511.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ049-050-502-503-505>508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ507.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ508.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ024-026-027-520-521.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ029-030.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ027-521.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY IN THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/89/99










000
FXUS66 KPDT 192249
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
248 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIP THIS EVENING, THEN A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AND INCREASING WINDS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN 3500
AND 4000 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RISE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE PRECIP AND WINDS INCREASE. STILL
UNCERTAIN AS TO THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE MAIN SNOW FALL IN THESE AREAS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, AND WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS. DO HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET, IN
WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THUS WILL ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN THIS AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME VERY WINDY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL WIND ADVISORIES FOR A NUMBER OF OUR CENTRAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON ZONES, AS WELL AS THE BLUE MTN FOOTHILLS. 90

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AND STRONG
DYNAMIC LIFT TO FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE JET STREAM WILL USHER IN A WARM FRONT WITH DRAMATICALLY RISING
SNOW LEVELS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN FALLING ON THE SNOWPACK IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SNOWMELT AND
RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT AND THE RAIN. AS SUCH AREA RIVERS, STREAMS AND
CREEKS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE BANKFULL IN SOME AREAS. AT A MINIMUM
1.00-1.50 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE
WALLOWA MOUNTAINS FOR THE 36 HOUR PERIOD FROM SUNDOWN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNUP ON MONDAY. LOWER ELEVATIONS CAN EXPECT TO
RECEIVE ANYWHERE FROM 0.20 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 6000-8000 BY
DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WITH THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON SUNDAY, AROUND 6000 FEET
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND RISE TO
7500-8500 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON WHILE THE WARM
FRONT REMAINS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO 4500-5500
FEET ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND LOWER TO 6000-7500 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR SINKING AIR YIELDING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  POLAN

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING OF CHRISTMAS EVE. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE HIGH...AS THE ECMWF IS MORE SUPPRESSED AND
WILL PROVIDE A MORE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. THE GFS HAS THE
RIDGE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MOISTURE OVERRUNING TO THE NORTH.
ASSUMING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER THIS WOULD PRESENT A FOG SCENARIO FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY EVENING A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
WITH MORE FAVORABLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE SNOW LEVELS AND WHEN THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW. LATEST GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS MAY NOT COOL DOWN ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
THE ECMWF HAS SNOW AT ALL LEVELS LATE CHRISTMAS EVE. RIGHT NOW SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE TOO DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH THE RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY AND LACK OF CURRENT MODEL AGREEMENT. AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA...COLD DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION....AVIATION...18Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN THIS MORNING WITH KPDT RADAR SHOWING RAIN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
-RA AT KPDT AND KALW, WHICH SHOULD END BY 20Z. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 20Z TO VFR. HOWEVER, KYKM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR/IFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 03Z/20TH
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER  TO MVFR/IFR WITH SOME FOG THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
LIFR VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.  POLAN

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE PRECIP WILL
FALL AS SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS THERE WILL BE A COMBINATION OF RAIN AND
SNOW MELT LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AS SUCH WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCHES FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  49  47  56 /  20  80  90  80
ALW  39  50  45  56 /  20  80 100  90
PSC  37  48  43  55 /  20  80  80  40
YKM  35  41  36  49 /  20  80  80  40
HRI  36  49  44  58 /  20  80  80  50
ELN  32  39  34  46 /  20  90 100  60
RDM  35  49  42  55 /  50  80  80  70
LGD  35  45  40  51 /  20  90 100 100
GCD  35  48  42  51 /  20  80 100  80
DLS  36  45  44  54 /  40  90 100  90

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ041-509>511.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ510-511.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     ORZ049-050-502-503-505>508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ507.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ508.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ024-026-027-520-521.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     WAZ029-030.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ027-521.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY IN THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/89/99










000
FXUS65 KBOI 192213
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
313 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A VERY STRONG AND WET
WINTER STORM IS ON ITS WAY INTO THE REGION TOMORROW THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST-
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. SEE THE ADVISORY FOR
DETAILS ON TIMING AND SNOW AMOUNTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE
AROUND 4000 FEET...BUT WILL RISE RAPIDLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SNOW LEVELS NEAR MCCALL WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE GROUND SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON FINAL SNOW TOTALS. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE GOING
WITH A FORECAST THAT CHANGES IT TO A MIX SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITS THE SNOW THAT WOULD OCCUR SHOULD IT REMAIN
ALL SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 9 INCHES
IN MCCALL BY MIDDAY SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING CLOSER TO 15 INCHES
SHOULD IT REMAIN ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY INCREASE MID-AFTERNOON
SATURDAY AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECT TO LAST INTO THE EVENING. AS
SNOW LEVELS RISE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...EVEN PLACES
LIKE BOGUS BASIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND REMAIN ALL RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...RIDGES ABOVE
AROUND 6000 FEET IN ERN OREGON AND ABOVE 7000 FEET IN SW IDAHO
WILL SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGH EVEN IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. TOTALS IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH IN THE VALLEYS...WITH
TOTALS...OR LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS...OF ONE TO TWO AND A HALF
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH RIVER FLOODING
OWING TO THE PRESENT CAPACITY AVAILABLE IN THE RIVER SYSTEMS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT
DECREASE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SNOW LEVELS
RANGING FROM 5000 FEET IN THE NORTH TO 8000 FEET IN THE SOUTH. ON
MONDAY SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
UNDER DRIER MORE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A BUILDING
RIDGE. MODELS ALL SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON TUESDAY...THEN WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 4500 FEET OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO UP TO 7000 FEET ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A COLD MOIST SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT
OUR REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT FORM THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE AS MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT.
CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 3000 FT UNTIL
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION HAS PASSED. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. COLD TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SNOW ABOVE 4500 FT MSL...WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING KMYL. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AFTER 06Z AREAS OF MVFR SNOW...AND RAIN BELOW 3500 FT
MSL...WILL SPREAD INTO HARNEY COUNTY...THEN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO AFTER 12Z. AFTER 18Z EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 4000 FT MSL.
SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH 10-20 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15-
25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON SOUTH OF A KBNO-KONO LINE. EXPECT
LITTLE OR NO IMPROVEMENT FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND BAKER COUNTY
OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
     IDZ011-013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY
     IDZ028.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT/AB
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 192213
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
313 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A VERY STRONG AND WET
WINTER STORM IS ON ITS WAY INTO THE REGION TOMORROW THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST-
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. SEE THE ADVISORY FOR
DETAILS ON TIMING AND SNOW AMOUNTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE
AROUND 4000 FEET...BUT WILL RISE RAPIDLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SNOW LEVELS NEAR MCCALL WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE GROUND SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON FINAL SNOW TOTALS. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE GOING
WITH A FORECAST THAT CHANGES IT TO A MIX SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITS THE SNOW THAT WOULD OCCUR SHOULD IT REMAIN
ALL SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 9 INCHES
IN MCCALL BY MIDDAY SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING CLOSER TO 15 INCHES
SHOULD IT REMAIN ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY INCREASE MID-AFTERNOON
SATURDAY AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECT TO LAST INTO THE EVENING. AS
SNOW LEVELS RISE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...EVEN PLACES
LIKE BOGUS BASIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND REMAIN ALL RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...RIDGES ABOVE
AROUND 6000 FEET IN ERN OREGON AND ABOVE 7000 FEET IN SW IDAHO
WILL SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGH EVEN IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. TOTALS IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH IN THE VALLEYS...WITH
TOTALS...OR LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS...OF ONE TO TWO AND A HALF
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH RIVER FLOODING
OWING TO THE PRESENT CAPACITY AVAILABLE IN THE RIVER SYSTEMS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT
DECREASE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SNOW LEVELS
RANGING FROM 5000 FEET IN THE NORTH TO 8000 FEET IN THE SOUTH. ON
MONDAY SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
UNDER DRIER MORE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A BUILDING
RIDGE. MODELS ALL SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON TUESDAY...THEN WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 4500 FEET OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO UP TO 7000 FEET ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A COLD MOIST SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT
OUR REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT FORM THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE AS MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT.
CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 3000 FT UNTIL
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION HAS PASSED. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. COLD TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SNOW ABOVE 4500 FT MSL...WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING KMYL. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AFTER 06Z AREAS OF MVFR SNOW...AND RAIN BELOW 3500 FT
MSL...WILL SPREAD INTO HARNEY COUNTY...THEN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO AFTER 12Z. AFTER 18Z EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 4000 FT MSL.
SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH 10-20 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15-
25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON SOUTH OF A KBNO-KONO LINE. EXPECT
LITTLE OR NO IMPROVEMENT FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND BAKER COUNTY
OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
     IDZ011-013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY
     IDZ028.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT/AB
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS66 KPQR 191937 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1048 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE CASCADES. MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONGER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...UPPER TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT HAS JUST PASSED THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND AS SUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LESSENING. WILL SEE SOME
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE CLOUDS AND THEN
STRATIFORM PRECIP FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING.

THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE MODELS THIS
MORNING AND WE APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK FOR A SIGNIFICANT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT. COMPARED WITH
YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY LATER ONSET
OF TRUE WESTERLY 850 MB FLOW...WHICH WOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT...BUT THAT
SHOULD NOT CHANGE STORM TOTAL QPF VERY MUCH. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BASED ON FORECASTS OF FLOOD OR
NEAR FLOOD STAGE AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THE AREA.

MODELS ARE INDICATING COLD AIR WILL HANG AROUND THE S WASHINGTON
CASCADES A BIT LONGER THAN ELSEWHERE AND SW FLOW TONIGHT WILL FAVOR
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT THERE...SO HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 3500 FT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 4000 FT AROUND AND EAST OF MT HOOD INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS LOOKS LIKE THEY`LL REMAIN LESS THAN
6 INCHES DURING ANY GIVEN 6 HR PERIOD SO HAVE NOT ISSUED ANYTHING FOR
THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)....TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE COLD UPPER TROUGH. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO BELOW THE CASCADES PASSES TODAY...BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE QPF HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. NAM MODEL SOUNDING FOR KAST
WOULD INDICATE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. NAM SOUNDING VALID 17Z TODAY SHOWS AN LI OF 0 WITH A
PRETTY HEFTY SWEAT INDEX OF 335...WELL ABOVE THE GENERALIZED 250
SWEAT INDEX BENCHMARK USED FOR ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
CONFIDENCE. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THEN DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT STARTS TO STABILIZE.

THE BIGGER STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT OVER THE
WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE PAST RUNS WITH FAIRLY DECENT CONTINUITY AMONGST THE
INDIVIDUAL MODELS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP AND THE DURATION. GFS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN
DIRECTING THE BAROCLINIC BAND OVER EXTREME SW WA AND NRN OREGON. THE
NAM AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...BUT THE ECMWF SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA 12Z SUN
THROUGH 00Z MON. THE 00Z WRF-GFS 48-HR QPF TOTALS VALID 12Z SAT
THROUGH 12Z MON SHOW AT LEAST 3-6 INCHES FOR THE OREGON CASCADES AND
2-4 INCHES FOR THE OREGON COAST RANGE. IT HAS LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE S
WA CASCADES AND WILLAPA HILLS. GFS AND NAM HAVE STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE 290K SURFACE STARTING 12Z SAT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUN. 850 MB WLY FLOW OF 40-50 KT INTO THE OREGON COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES SAT THROUGH SUN WILL RESULT IN A HIGHLY EFFICIENT OROGRAPHIC
RAINFALL COMPONENT. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
TABLE...SPECIFICALLY THE ENSEMBLE MODEL CLIMATE QPF (OR M CLIMATE
QPF)...IT INDICATES A 99TH PERCENTILE OR MAX QPF EVENT FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OREGON CASCADES SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN MORNING.
THIS MEANS THAT THE GEFS ENSEMBLE IS FORECASTING AN INORDINATE AMOUNT
OF PRECIP COMPARED TO THE 1985-2012 WINTER ENSEMBLE MODEL CLIMATE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES PER SIX HOURS IN THE
CASCADES FOR A 12-18 PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...THERE IS NO LOW-ELEVATION
SNOW AND MINIMAL SNOW AT PASS LEVELS. HOWEVER...LATEST HYDRO GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW RIVERS WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE BY SUN OR MON. REFER TO
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS BUT IT
WILL BE RATHER BLUSTERY. THE NAM INDICATES A KAST-KOTH GRADIENT OF
AROUND 10 MB BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND IN THE EVENING. THE BENCHMARK
GRADIENT IS AROUND 12 MB. EXPECT 45-55 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE BEACHES
AND HEADLANDS SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

IN ADDITION...THOSE PLANNING TO BE ALONG THE COAST AT AREA BEACHES
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. RAPIDLY BUILDING
SEAS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS HIGH SURF ALONG THE
BEACHES AS EARLY AS TODAY. LONG PERIOD SWELLS MAY REACH SHORE AND
SURPRISE INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE UNAWARE. ANYONE ON THE BEACHES SHOULD
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION AND AVOID THE SURF ZONE AS LARGE WAVES MAY
WASH OVER BEACHES AND JETTIES WITH LITTLE WARNING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
AROUND HIGH TIDES. THIS THREAT COULD BE ENHANCED BY HIGH FLOWS ON
RIVERS IN RESPONSE TO THE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.  WEISHAAR

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS AGREE THE WEEKEND
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES MON...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE A DIRTY RIDGE
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HOLD ON TO SOME QPF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE NRN ZONES MON NIGHT AND TUE
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN BRING A COLDER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WED. THE ECMWF DROPS 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES TO NEAR 530 DM 00Z THU WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF.
THUS...THE CASCADES AND SKI AREAS MAY FINALLY GET A DECENT SHOT OF
SNOW. COLDER NORTH FLOW WILL FOLLOW AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL
WELL BELOW NORMAL AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT LATE WEEK. WEISHAAR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SITUATION SETTING UP FOR A MEMORABLE HYDROLOGIC EVENT
MAINLY FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. STRONG AND
DEEP MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE PACNW COAST COME
SATURDAY MORNING. A VERY LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE IS STRETCHING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC WITH ORIGINS WEST TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THIS MOIST AIR
MASS WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY A 150 TO 170 KT JET AND WESTERLY 25 TO
50 KT LOWER LEVEL WINDS. AS SUCH...THIS CONTINUES TO GIVE THE
APPEARANCE OF A CLASSIC HIGH PRECIPITATION ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT
WHERE THE DEEP MOIST FLOW WILL SPEND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME
ON A NEARLY PERPENDICULAR COURSE AGAINST THE COAST RANGE WITH THE
CASCADES TAKING A BIT HIGHER OF THE IMPACT. AS OF THE MORNING MODEL
RUNS AND RECENT NWRFC UPDATES...IT APPEARS MULTIPLE RIVERS HAVE
POTENTIAL OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONALLY...THIS EVENT HAS
SUFFICIENT DEPTH TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO THE NORTH OREGON AND
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE RIVERS WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR
NOTABLE FLOODING. HAVE ISSUED FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. KEEP IN MIND THAT DETAILS WILL ALWAYS BE IN FLUX UNDER THESE
SCENARIOS AS SUBTLE NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS COLD MAKE DRAMATIC DIFFERENCES
IN WHICH BASINS RECEIVE EXTENDED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECASTS AND IMPACTS AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT. RIVER FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR (ALL LOWER CASE).
JBONK/BOWEN

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT SPREADING WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
A DETERIORATION AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD HIGH END IFR TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z
AND 18Z SATURDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UNSTABLE SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADY RAIN INTO THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 09Z AND
18Z SATURDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM IS
THAT SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE WILL NEARLY DOUBLE IN
HEIGHT TODAY...RISING INTO THE 20 TO 23 FT RANGE WITH DOMINANT
PERIODS NEAR 18 SECONDS. ANY SMALL CRAFT VESSELS ARE URGED TO COME
ONSHORE IMMEDIATELY AS HIGHER SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO ARRIVE. BUOY
89 ABOUT 70 MILES OFFSHORE IS ALREADY REPORTING SEAS NEAR 15 FT
AT 8 AM...AND WILL LIKELY EXCEED 20 FT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID WALKING AND CLIMBING ON JETTIES ALONG THE
OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CONCERN THAT
SNEAKER WAVES WILL POSE A RISK TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC WALKING ALONG
THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS GENERAL PATTERN OF A
LARGE INCOMING SWELL OFTEN ALLOWS UNWARY BEACH GOERS TO BE CAUGHT
OFF GUARD BY WAVES THAT RUN MUCH FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN WAVES
OVER THE PREVIOUS 15 TO 30 MINUTES. UNDER SIMILAR SCENARIOS IN THE
PAST...WAVES HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO KNOCK UNWARY PEOPLE AND PETS OFF
THEIR FEET BEFORE THE RECEDING WATER PULLS THEM BACK INTO THE SURF
ZONE. IN ADDITION...THESE HIGHER WAVES CAN CAUSE DRIFTWOOD THAT
SUPERFICIALLY APPEARS LOCKED IN PLACE ALONG THE BEACH TO BECOME
MOBILE AND ROLL OVER AN UNSUSPECTING PERSON AS THE WAVE PUSHES
ASHORE AND THEN RECEDES. THIS HAPPENS NEARLY EVERY YEAR ALONG THE
OREGON COAST...AND THIS IS AN IDEAL SETUP FOR THESE LARGE SNEAKER
WAVES TO DO JUST THIS. PLEASE BE COGNIZANT OF THIS WHEN RECREATING
ON BEACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE NEXT FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO
35 KT WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE GUSTS MAY APPROACH 50 KT
WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AS A SHORT LIVED COASTAL JET
DEVELOPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. WHILE THE
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BE SLOWLY TAPERING
SATURDAY...THIS RENEWED SHOT OF WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WILL
LIKELY KEEP SEAS FLIRTING WITH 20 FT FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY. EXPECT
THE HIGHEST WINDS TO TAPER AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF WINDS ENTERS THE WATERS.
OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING TO COVER
THIS PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAT THESE 35
KT WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AGAIN...THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AND KEEP SEAS WELL INTO
THE TEENS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS MAY TEMPORARILY BOTTOM OUT
NEAR 10 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A WEAK FRONT...AND ACCOMPANYING
LARGER SWELL SLIDES INTO THE WATERS TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE WHETHER OR NOT A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING WILL BE NECESSARY FOR
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST CENTERED AROUND THE HIGH TIDE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR AT 11 AM SATURDAY. GIVEN THE WILLAPA AND NASELLE RIVER FLOWS
WILL BE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND HIGH TIDE NEAR TOKE POINT IS
EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH 11 FT WITH A TIDAL ANOMALY NEAR 1 FT...WE
ARE LEANING TOWARDS NOT ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A SIMILAR TIDE HEIGHT WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY
SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME...FLOWS ON THE WILLAPA AND NASELLE RIVERS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER SO THERE IS AN INCREASED CONCERN THAT
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG LOW LYING ROADS
AROUND RAYMOND...NASELLE AND THE WILLAPA BAY IN GENERAL IN
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. GIVEN WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...WE ARE OPTING TO NOT ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...AND
WILL LIKELY WAIT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY UNTIL WE GATHER MORE GROUND
TRUTH DATA AND SUNDAY APPROACHES. THE PEAK TIME OF CONCERN ON
SUNDAY WILL BE FROM APPROXIMATELY 9 AM TO 3 PM. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE
     COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN
     OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-
     CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-
     GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH OREGON COAST-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
     SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5
     CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
     SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 191937 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1048 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE CASCADES. MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONGER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...UPPER TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT HAS JUST PASSED THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND AS SUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LESSENING. WILL SEE SOME
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE CLOUDS AND THEN
STRATIFORM PRECIP FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING.

THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE MODELS THIS
MORNING AND WE APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK FOR A SIGNIFICANT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT. COMPARED WITH
YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY LATER ONSET
OF TRUE WESTERLY 850 MB FLOW...WHICH WOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT...BUT THAT
SHOULD NOT CHANGE STORM TOTAL QPF VERY MUCH. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BASED ON FORECASTS OF FLOOD OR
NEAR FLOOD STAGE AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THE AREA.

MODELS ARE INDICATING COLD AIR WILL HANG AROUND THE S WASHINGTON
CASCADES A BIT LONGER THAN ELSEWHERE AND SW FLOW TONIGHT WILL FAVOR
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT THERE...SO HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 3500 FT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 4000 FT AROUND AND EAST OF MT HOOD INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS LOOKS LIKE THEY`LL REMAIN LESS THAN
6 INCHES DURING ANY GIVEN 6 HR PERIOD SO HAVE NOT ISSUED ANYTHING FOR
THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)....TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE COLD UPPER TROUGH. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO BELOW THE CASCADES PASSES TODAY...BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE QPF HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. NAM MODEL SOUNDING FOR KAST
WOULD INDICATE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. NAM SOUNDING VALID 17Z TODAY SHOWS AN LI OF 0 WITH A
PRETTY HEFTY SWEAT INDEX OF 335...WELL ABOVE THE GENERALIZED 250
SWEAT INDEX BENCHMARK USED FOR ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
CONFIDENCE. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THEN DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT STARTS TO STABILIZE.

THE BIGGER STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT OVER THE
WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE PAST RUNS WITH FAIRLY DECENT CONTINUITY AMONGST THE
INDIVIDUAL MODELS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP AND THE DURATION. GFS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN
DIRECTING THE BAROCLINIC BAND OVER EXTREME SW WA AND NRN OREGON. THE
NAM AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...BUT THE ECMWF SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA 12Z SUN
THROUGH 00Z MON. THE 00Z WRF-GFS 48-HR QPF TOTALS VALID 12Z SAT
THROUGH 12Z MON SHOW AT LEAST 3-6 INCHES FOR THE OREGON CASCADES AND
2-4 INCHES FOR THE OREGON COAST RANGE. IT HAS LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE S
WA CASCADES AND WILLAPA HILLS. GFS AND NAM HAVE STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE 290K SURFACE STARTING 12Z SAT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUN. 850 MB WLY FLOW OF 40-50 KT INTO THE OREGON COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES SAT THROUGH SUN WILL RESULT IN A HIGHLY EFFICIENT OROGRAPHIC
RAINFALL COMPONENT. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
TABLE...SPECIFICALLY THE ENSEMBLE MODEL CLIMATE QPF (OR M CLIMATE
QPF)...IT INDICATES A 99TH PERCENTILE OR MAX QPF EVENT FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OREGON CASCADES SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN MORNING.
THIS MEANS THAT THE GEFS ENSEMBLE IS FORECASTING AN INORDINATE AMOUNT
OF PRECIP COMPARED TO THE 1985-2012 WINTER ENSEMBLE MODEL CLIMATE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES PER SIX HOURS IN THE
CASCADES FOR A 12-18 PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...THERE IS NO LOW-ELEVATION
SNOW AND MINIMAL SNOW AT PASS LEVELS. HOWEVER...LATEST HYDRO GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW RIVERS WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE BY SUN OR MON. REFER TO
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS BUT IT
WILL BE RATHER BLUSTERY. THE NAM INDICATES A KAST-KOTH GRADIENT OF
AROUND 10 MB BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND IN THE EVENING. THE BENCHMARK
GRADIENT IS AROUND 12 MB. EXPECT 45-55 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE BEACHES
AND HEADLANDS SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

IN ADDITION...THOSE PLANNING TO BE ALONG THE COAST AT AREA BEACHES
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. RAPIDLY BUILDING
SEAS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS HIGH SURF ALONG THE
BEACHES AS EARLY AS TODAY. LONG PERIOD SWELLS MAY REACH SHORE AND
SURPRISE INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE UNAWARE. ANYONE ON THE BEACHES SHOULD
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION AND AVOID THE SURF ZONE AS LARGE WAVES MAY
WASH OVER BEACHES AND JETTIES WITH LITTLE WARNING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
AROUND HIGH TIDES. THIS THREAT COULD BE ENHANCED BY HIGH FLOWS ON
RIVERS IN RESPONSE TO THE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.  WEISHAAR

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS AGREE THE WEEKEND
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES MON...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE A DIRTY RIDGE
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HOLD ON TO SOME QPF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE NRN ZONES MON NIGHT AND TUE
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN BRING A COLDER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WED. THE ECMWF DROPS 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES TO NEAR 530 DM 00Z THU WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF.
THUS...THE CASCADES AND SKI AREAS MAY FINALLY GET A DECENT SHOT OF
SNOW. COLDER NORTH FLOW WILL FOLLOW AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL
WELL BELOW NORMAL AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT LATE WEEK. WEISHAAR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SITUATION SETTING UP FOR A MEMORABLE HYDROLOGIC EVENT
MAINLY FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. STRONG AND
DEEP MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE PACNW COAST COME
SATURDAY MORNING. A VERY LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE IS STRETCHING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC WITH ORIGINS WEST TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THIS MOIST AIR
MASS WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY A 150 TO 170 KT JET AND WESTERLY 25 TO
50 KT LOWER LEVEL WINDS. AS SUCH...THIS CONTINUES TO GIVE THE
APPEARANCE OF A CLASSIC HIGH PRECIPITATION ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT
WHERE THE DEEP MOIST FLOW WILL SPEND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME
ON A NEARLY PERPENDICULAR COURSE AGAINST THE COAST RANGE WITH THE
CASCADES TAKING A BIT HIGHER OF THE IMPACT. AS OF THE MORNING MODEL
RUNS AND RECENT NWRFC UPDATES...IT APPEARS MULTIPLE RIVERS HAVE
POTENTIAL OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONALLY...THIS EVENT HAS
SUFFICIENT DEPTH TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO THE NORTH OREGON AND
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE RIVERS WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR
NOTABLE FLOODING. HAVE ISSUED FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. KEEP IN MIND THAT DETAILS WILL ALWAYS BE IN FLUX UNDER THESE
SCENARIOS AS SUBTLE NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS COLD MAKE DRAMATIC DIFFERENCES
IN WHICH BASINS RECEIVE EXTENDED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECASTS AND IMPACTS AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT. RIVER FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR (ALL LOWER CASE).
JBONK/BOWEN

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT SPREADING WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
A DETERIORATION AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD HIGH END IFR TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z
AND 18Z SATURDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UNSTABLE SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADY RAIN INTO THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 09Z AND
18Z SATURDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM IS
THAT SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE WILL NEARLY DOUBLE IN
HEIGHT TODAY...RISING INTO THE 20 TO 23 FT RANGE WITH DOMINANT
PERIODS NEAR 18 SECONDS. ANY SMALL CRAFT VESSELS ARE URGED TO COME
ONSHORE IMMEDIATELY AS HIGHER SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO ARRIVE. BUOY
89 ABOUT 70 MILES OFFSHORE IS ALREADY REPORTING SEAS NEAR 15 FT
AT 8 AM...AND WILL LIKELY EXCEED 20 FT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID WALKING AND CLIMBING ON JETTIES ALONG THE
OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CONCERN THAT
SNEAKER WAVES WILL POSE A RISK TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC WALKING ALONG
THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS GENERAL PATTERN OF A
LARGE INCOMING SWELL OFTEN ALLOWS UNWARY BEACH GOERS TO BE CAUGHT
OFF GUARD BY WAVES THAT RUN MUCH FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN WAVES
OVER THE PREVIOUS 15 TO 30 MINUTES. UNDER SIMILAR SCENARIOS IN THE
PAST...WAVES HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO KNOCK UNWARY PEOPLE AND PETS OFF
THEIR FEET BEFORE THE RECEDING WATER PULLS THEM BACK INTO THE SURF
ZONE. IN ADDITION...THESE HIGHER WAVES CAN CAUSE DRIFTWOOD THAT
SUPERFICIALLY APPEARS LOCKED IN PLACE ALONG THE BEACH TO BECOME
MOBILE AND ROLL OVER AN UNSUSPECTING PERSON AS THE WAVE PUSHES
ASHORE AND THEN RECEDES. THIS HAPPENS NEARLY EVERY YEAR ALONG THE
OREGON COAST...AND THIS IS AN IDEAL SETUP FOR THESE LARGE SNEAKER
WAVES TO DO JUST THIS. PLEASE BE COGNIZANT OF THIS WHEN RECREATING
ON BEACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE NEXT FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO
35 KT WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE GUSTS MAY APPROACH 50 KT
WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AS A SHORT LIVED COASTAL JET
DEVELOPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. WHILE THE
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BE SLOWLY TAPERING
SATURDAY...THIS RENEWED SHOT OF WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WILL
LIKELY KEEP SEAS FLIRTING WITH 20 FT FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY. EXPECT
THE HIGHEST WINDS TO TAPER AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF WINDS ENTERS THE WATERS.
OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING TO COVER
THIS PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAT THESE 35
KT WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AGAIN...THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AND KEEP SEAS WELL INTO
THE TEENS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS MAY TEMPORARILY BOTTOM OUT
NEAR 10 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A WEAK FRONT...AND ACCOMPANYING
LARGER SWELL SLIDES INTO THE WATERS TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE WHETHER OR NOT A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING WILL BE NECESSARY FOR
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST CENTERED AROUND THE HIGH TIDE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR AT 11 AM SATURDAY. GIVEN THE WILLAPA AND NASELLE RIVER FLOWS
WILL BE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND HIGH TIDE NEAR TOKE POINT IS
EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH 11 FT WITH A TIDAL ANOMALY NEAR 1 FT...WE
ARE LEANING TOWARDS NOT ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A SIMILAR TIDE HEIGHT WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY
SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME...FLOWS ON THE WILLAPA AND NASELLE RIVERS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER SO THERE IS AN INCREASED CONCERN THAT
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG LOW LYING ROADS
AROUND RAYMOND...NASELLE AND THE WILLAPA BAY IN GENERAL IN
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. GIVEN WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...WE ARE OPTING TO NOT ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...AND
WILL LIKELY WAIT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY UNTIL WE GATHER MORE GROUND
TRUTH DATA AND SUNDAY APPROACHES. THE PEAK TIME OF CONCERN ON
SUNDAY WILL BE FROM APPROXIMATELY 9 AM TO 3 PM. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE
     COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN
     OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-
     CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-
     GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH OREGON COAST-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
     SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5
     CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
     SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 191937 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1048 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE CASCADES. MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONGER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...UPPER TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT HAS JUST PASSED THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND AS SUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LESSENING. WILL SEE SOME
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE CLOUDS AND THEN
STRATIFORM PRECIP FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING.

THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE MODELS THIS
MORNING AND WE APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK FOR A SIGNIFICANT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT. COMPARED WITH
YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY LATER ONSET
OF TRUE WESTERLY 850 MB FLOW...WHICH WOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT...BUT THAT
SHOULD NOT CHANGE STORM TOTAL QPF VERY MUCH. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BASED ON FORECASTS OF FLOOD OR
NEAR FLOOD STAGE AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THE AREA.

MODELS ARE INDICATING COLD AIR WILL HANG AROUND THE S WASHINGTON
CASCADES A BIT LONGER THAN ELSEWHERE AND SW FLOW TONIGHT WILL FAVOR
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT THERE...SO HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 3500 FT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 4000 FT AROUND AND EAST OF MT HOOD INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS LOOKS LIKE THEY`LL REMAIN LESS THAN
6 INCHES DURING ANY GIVEN 6 HR PERIOD SO HAVE NOT ISSUED ANYTHING FOR
THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)....TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE COLD UPPER TROUGH. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO BELOW THE CASCADES PASSES TODAY...BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE QPF HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. NAM MODEL SOUNDING FOR KAST
WOULD INDICATE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. NAM SOUNDING VALID 17Z TODAY SHOWS AN LI OF 0 WITH A
PRETTY HEFTY SWEAT INDEX OF 335...WELL ABOVE THE GENERALIZED 250
SWEAT INDEX BENCHMARK USED FOR ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
CONFIDENCE. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THEN DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT STARTS TO STABILIZE.

THE BIGGER STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT OVER THE
WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE PAST RUNS WITH FAIRLY DECENT CONTINUITY AMONGST THE
INDIVIDUAL MODELS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP AND THE DURATION. GFS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN
DIRECTING THE BAROCLINIC BAND OVER EXTREME SW WA AND NRN OREGON. THE
NAM AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...BUT THE ECMWF SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA 12Z SUN
THROUGH 00Z MON. THE 00Z WRF-GFS 48-HR QPF TOTALS VALID 12Z SAT
THROUGH 12Z MON SHOW AT LEAST 3-6 INCHES FOR THE OREGON CASCADES AND
2-4 INCHES FOR THE OREGON COAST RANGE. IT HAS LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE S
WA CASCADES AND WILLAPA HILLS. GFS AND NAM HAVE STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE 290K SURFACE STARTING 12Z SAT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUN. 850 MB WLY FLOW OF 40-50 KT INTO THE OREGON COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES SAT THROUGH SUN WILL RESULT IN A HIGHLY EFFICIENT OROGRAPHIC
RAINFALL COMPONENT. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
TABLE...SPECIFICALLY THE ENSEMBLE MODEL CLIMATE QPF (OR M CLIMATE
QPF)...IT INDICATES A 99TH PERCENTILE OR MAX QPF EVENT FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OREGON CASCADES SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN MORNING.
THIS MEANS THAT THE GEFS ENSEMBLE IS FORECASTING AN INORDINATE AMOUNT
OF PRECIP COMPARED TO THE 1985-2012 WINTER ENSEMBLE MODEL CLIMATE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES PER SIX HOURS IN THE
CASCADES FOR A 12-18 PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...THERE IS NO LOW-ELEVATION
SNOW AND MINIMAL SNOW AT PASS LEVELS. HOWEVER...LATEST HYDRO GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW RIVERS WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE BY SUN OR MON. REFER TO
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS BUT IT
WILL BE RATHER BLUSTERY. THE NAM INDICATES A KAST-KOTH GRADIENT OF
AROUND 10 MB BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND IN THE EVENING. THE BENCHMARK
GRADIENT IS AROUND 12 MB. EXPECT 45-55 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE BEACHES
AND HEADLANDS SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

IN ADDITION...THOSE PLANNING TO BE ALONG THE COAST AT AREA BEACHES
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. RAPIDLY BUILDING
SEAS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS HIGH SURF ALONG THE
BEACHES AS EARLY AS TODAY. LONG PERIOD SWELLS MAY REACH SHORE AND
SURPRISE INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE UNAWARE. ANYONE ON THE BEACHES SHOULD
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION AND AVOID THE SURF ZONE AS LARGE WAVES MAY
WASH OVER BEACHES AND JETTIES WITH LITTLE WARNING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
AROUND HIGH TIDES. THIS THREAT COULD BE ENHANCED BY HIGH FLOWS ON
RIVERS IN RESPONSE TO THE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.  WEISHAAR

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS AGREE THE WEEKEND
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES MON...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE A DIRTY RIDGE
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HOLD ON TO SOME QPF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE NRN ZONES MON NIGHT AND TUE
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN BRING A COLDER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WED. THE ECMWF DROPS 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES TO NEAR 530 DM 00Z THU WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF.
THUS...THE CASCADES AND SKI AREAS MAY FINALLY GET A DECENT SHOT OF
SNOW. COLDER NORTH FLOW WILL FOLLOW AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL
WELL BELOW NORMAL AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT LATE WEEK. WEISHAAR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SITUATION SETTING UP FOR A MEMORABLE HYDROLOGIC EVENT
MAINLY FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. STRONG AND
DEEP MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE PACNW COAST COME
SATURDAY MORNING. A VERY LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE IS STRETCHING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC WITH ORIGINS WEST TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THIS MOIST AIR
MASS WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY A 150 TO 170 KT JET AND WESTERLY 25 TO
50 KT LOWER LEVEL WINDS. AS SUCH...THIS CONTINUES TO GIVE THE
APPEARANCE OF A CLASSIC HIGH PRECIPITATION ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT
WHERE THE DEEP MOIST FLOW WILL SPEND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME
ON A NEARLY PERPENDICULAR COURSE AGAINST THE COAST RANGE WITH THE
CASCADES TAKING A BIT HIGHER OF THE IMPACT. AS OF THE MORNING MODEL
RUNS AND RECENT NWRFC UPDATES...IT APPEARS MULTIPLE RIVERS HAVE
POTENTIAL OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONALLY...THIS EVENT HAS
SUFFICIENT DEPTH TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO THE NORTH OREGON AND
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE RIVERS WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR
NOTABLE FLOODING. HAVE ISSUED FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. KEEP IN MIND THAT DETAILS WILL ALWAYS BE IN FLUX UNDER THESE
SCENARIOS AS SUBTLE NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS COLD MAKE DRAMATIC DIFFERENCES
IN WHICH BASINS RECEIVE EXTENDED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECASTS AND IMPACTS AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT. RIVER FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR (ALL LOWER CASE).
JBONK/BOWEN

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT SPREADING WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
A DETERIORATION AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD HIGH END IFR TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z
AND 18Z SATURDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UNSTABLE SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADY RAIN INTO THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 09Z AND
18Z SATURDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM IS
THAT SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE WILL NEARLY DOUBLE IN
HEIGHT TODAY...RISING INTO THE 20 TO 23 FT RANGE WITH DOMINANT
PERIODS NEAR 18 SECONDS. ANY SMALL CRAFT VESSELS ARE URGED TO COME
ONSHORE IMMEDIATELY AS HIGHER SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO ARRIVE. BUOY
89 ABOUT 70 MILES OFFSHORE IS ALREADY REPORTING SEAS NEAR 15 FT
AT 8 AM...AND WILL LIKELY EXCEED 20 FT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID WALKING AND CLIMBING ON JETTIES ALONG THE
OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CONCERN THAT
SNEAKER WAVES WILL POSE A RISK TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC WALKING ALONG
THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS GENERAL PATTERN OF A
LARGE INCOMING SWELL OFTEN ALLOWS UNWARY BEACH GOERS TO BE CAUGHT
OFF GUARD BY WAVES THAT RUN MUCH FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN WAVES
OVER THE PREVIOUS 15 TO 30 MINUTES. UNDER SIMILAR SCENARIOS IN THE
PAST...WAVES HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO KNOCK UNWARY PEOPLE AND PETS OFF
THEIR FEET BEFORE THE RECEDING WATER PULLS THEM BACK INTO THE SURF
ZONE. IN ADDITION...THESE HIGHER WAVES CAN CAUSE DRIFTWOOD THAT
SUPERFICIALLY APPEARS LOCKED IN PLACE ALONG THE BEACH TO BECOME
MOBILE AND ROLL OVER AN UNSUSPECTING PERSON AS THE WAVE PUSHES
ASHORE AND THEN RECEDES. THIS HAPPENS NEARLY EVERY YEAR ALONG THE
OREGON COAST...AND THIS IS AN IDEAL SETUP FOR THESE LARGE SNEAKER
WAVES TO DO JUST THIS. PLEASE BE COGNIZANT OF THIS WHEN RECREATING
ON BEACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE NEXT FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO
35 KT WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE GUSTS MAY APPROACH 50 KT
WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AS A SHORT LIVED COASTAL JET
DEVELOPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. WHILE THE
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BE SLOWLY TAPERING
SATURDAY...THIS RENEWED SHOT OF WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WILL
LIKELY KEEP SEAS FLIRTING WITH 20 FT FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY. EXPECT
THE HIGHEST WINDS TO TAPER AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF WINDS ENTERS THE WATERS.
OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING TO COVER
THIS PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAT THESE 35
KT WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AGAIN...THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AND KEEP SEAS WELL INTO
THE TEENS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS MAY TEMPORARILY BOTTOM OUT
NEAR 10 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A WEAK FRONT...AND ACCOMPANYING
LARGER SWELL SLIDES INTO THE WATERS TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE WHETHER OR NOT A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING WILL BE NECESSARY FOR
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST CENTERED AROUND THE HIGH TIDE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR AT 11 AM SATURDAY. GIVEN THE WILLAPA AND NASELLE RIVER FLOWS
WILL BE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND HIGH TIDE NEAR TOKE POINT IS
EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH 11 FT WITH A TIDAL ANOMALY NEAR 1 FT...WE
ARE LEANING TOWARDS NOT ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A SIMILAR TIDE HEIGHT WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY
SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME...FLOWS ON THE WILLAPA AND NASELLE RIVERS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER SO THERE IS AN INCREASED CONCERN THAT
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG LOW LYING ROADS
AROUND RAYMOND...NASELLE AND THE WILLAPA BAY IN GENERAL IN
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. GIVEN WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...WE ARE OPTING TO NOT ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...AND
WILL LIKELY WAIT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY UNTIL WE GATHER MORE GROUND
TRUTH DATA AND SUNDAY APPROACHES. THE PEAK TIME OF CONCERN ON
SUNDAY WILL BE FROM APPROXIMATELY 9 AM TO 3 PM. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE
     COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN
     OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-
     CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-
     GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH OREGON COAST-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
     SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5
     CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
     SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 191937 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1048 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE CASCADES. MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONGER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...UPPER TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT HAS JUST PASSED THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND AS SUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LESSENING. WILL SEE SOME
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE CLOUDS AND THEN
STRATIFORM PRECIP FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING.

THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE MODELS THIS
MORNING AND WE APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK FOR A SIGNIFICANT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT. COMPARED WITH
YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY LATER ONSET
OF TRUE WESTERLY 850 MB FLOW...WHICH WOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT...BUT THAT
SHOULD NOT CHANGE STORM TOTAL QPF VERY MUCH. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BASED ON FORECASTS OF FLOOD OR
NEAR FLOOD STAGE AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THE AREA.

MODELS ARE INDICATING COLD AIR WILL HANG AROUND THE S WASHINGTON
CASCADES A BIT LONGER THAN ELSEWHERE AND SW FLOW TONIGHT WILL FAVOR
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT THERE...SO HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 3500 FT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 4000 FT AROUND AND EAST OF MT HOOD INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS LOOKS LIKE THEY`LL REMAIN LESS THAN
6 INCHES DURING ANY GIVEN 6 HR PERIOD SO HAVE NOT ISSUED ANYTHING FOR
THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)....TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE COLD UPPER TROUGH. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO BELOW THE CASCADES PASSES TODAY...BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE QPF HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. NAM MODEL SOUNDING FOR KAST
WOULD INDICATE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. NAM SOUNDING VALID 17Z TODAY SHOWS AN LI OF 0 WITH A
PRETTY HEFTY SWEAT INDEX OF 335...WELL ABOVE THE GENERALIZED 250
SWEAT INDEX BENCHMARK USED FOR ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
CONFIDENCE. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THEN DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT STARTS TO STABILIZE.

THE BIGGER STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT OVER THE
WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE PAST RUNS WITH FAIRLY DECENT CONTINUITY AMONGST THE
INDIVIDUAL MODELS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP AND THE DURATION. GFS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN
DIRECTING THE BAROCLINIC BAND OVER EXTREME SW WA AND NRN OREGON. THE
NAM AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...BUT THE ECMWF SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA 12Z SUN
THROUGH 00Z MON. THE 00Z WRF-GFS 48-HR QPF TOTALS VALID 12Z SAT
THROUGH 12Z MON SHOW AT LEAST 3-6 INCHES FOR THE OREGON CASCADES AND
2-4 INCHES FOR THE OREGON COAST RANGE. IT HAS LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE S
WA CASCADES AND WILLAPA HILLS. GFS AND NAM HAVE STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE 290K SURFACE STARTING 12Z SAT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUN. 850 MB WLY FLOW OF 40-50 KT INTO THE OREGON COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES SAT THROUGH SUN WILL RESULT IN A HIGHLY EFFICIENT OROGRAPHIC
RAINFALL COMPONENT. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
TABLE...SPECIFICALLY THE ENSEMBLE MODEL CLIMATE QPF (OR M CLIMATE
QPF)...IT INDICATES A 99TH PERCENTILE OR MAX QPF EVENT FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OREGON CASCADES SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN MORNING.
THIS MEANS THAT THE GEFS ENSEMBLE IS FORECASTING AN INORDINATE AMOUNT
OF PRECIP COMPARED TO THE 1985-2012 WINTER ENSEMBLE MODEL CLIMATE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES PER SIX HOURS IN THE
CASCADES FOR A 12-18 PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...THERE IS NO LOW-ELEVATION
SNOW AND MINIMAL SNOW AT PASS LEVELS. HOWEVER...LATEST HYDRO GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW RIVERS WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE BY SUN OR MON. REFER TO
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS BUT IT
WILL BE RATHER BLUSTERY. THE NAM INDICATES A KAST-KOTH GRADIENT OF
AROUND 10 MB BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND IN THE EVENING. THE BENCHMARK
GRADIENT IS AROUND 12 MB. EXPECT 45-55 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE BEACHES
AND HEADLANDS SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

IN ADDITION...THOSE PLANNING TO BE ALONG THE COAST AT AREA BEACHES
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. RAPIDLY BUILDING
SEAS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS HIGH SURF ALONG THE
BEACHES AS EARLY AS TODAY. LONG PERIOD SWELLS MAY REACH SHORE AND
SURPRISE INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE UNAWARE. ANYONE ON THE BEACHES SHOULD
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION AND AVOID THE SURF ZONE AS LARGE WAVES MAY
WASH OVER BEACHES AND JETTIES WITH LITTLE WARNING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
AROUND HIGH TIDES. THIS THREAT COULD BE ENHANCED BY HIGH FLOWS ON
RIVERS IN RESPONSE TO THE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.  WEISHAAR

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS AGREE THE WEEKEND
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES MON...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE A DIRTY RIDGE
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HOLD ON TO SOME QPF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE NRN ZONES MON NIGHT AND TUE
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN BRING A COLDER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WED. THE ECMWF DROPS 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES TO NEAR 530 DM 00Z THU WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF.
THUS...THE CASCADES AND SKI AREAS MAY FINALLY GET A DECENT SHOT OF
SNOW. COLDER NORTH FLOW WILL FOLLOW AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL
WELL BELOW NORMAL AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT LATE WEEK. WEISHAAR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SITUATION SETTING UP FOR A MEMORABLE HYDROLOGIC EVENT
MAINLY FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. STRONG AND
DEEP MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE PACNW COAST COME
SATURDAY MORNING. A VERY LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE IS STRETCHING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC WITH ORIGINS WEST TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THIS MOIST AIR
MASS WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY A 150 TO 170 KT JET AND WESTERLY 25 TO
50 KT LOWER LEVEL WINDS. AS SUCH...THIS CONTINUES TO GIVE THE
APPEARANCE OF A CLASSIC HIGH PRECIPITATION ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT
WHERE THE DEEP MOIST FLOW WILL SPEND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME
ON A NEARLY PERPENDICULAR COURSE AGAINST THE COAST RANGE WITH THE
CASCADES TAKING A BIT HIGHER OF THE IMPACT. AS OF THE MORNING MODEL
RUNS AND RECENT NWRFC UPDATES...IT APPEARS MULTIPLE RIVERS HAVE
POTENTIAL OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONALLY...THIS EVENT HAS
SUFFICIENT DEPTH TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO THE NORTH OREGON AND
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE RIVERS WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR
NOTABLE FLOODING. HAVE ISSUED FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. KEEP IN MIND THAT DETAILS WILL ALWAYS BE IN FLUX UNDER THESE
SCENARIOS AS SUBTLE NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS COLD MAKE DRAMATIC DIFFERENCES
IN WHICH BASINS RECEIVE EXTENDED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECASTS AND IMPACTS AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT. RIVER FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR (ALL LOWER CASE).
JBONK/BOWEN

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT SPREADING WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
A DETERIORATION AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD HIGH END IFR TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z
AND 18Z SATURDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UNSTABLE SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADY RAIN INTO THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 09Z AND
18Z SATURDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM IS
THAT SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE WILL NEARLY DOUBLE IN
HEIGHT TODAY...RISING INTO THE 20 TO 23 FT RANGE WITH DOMINANT
PERIODS NEAR 18 SECONDS. ANY SMALL CRAFT VESSELS ARE URGED TO COME
ONSHORE IMMEDIATELY AS HIGHER SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO ARRIVE. BUOY
89 ABOUT 70 MILES OFFSHORE IS ALREADY REPORTING SEAS NEAR 15 FT
AT 8 AM...AND WILL LIKELY EXCEED 20 FT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID WALKING AND CLIMBING ON JETTIES ALONG THE
OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CONCERN THAT
SNEAKER WAVES WILL POSE A RISK TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC WALKING ALONG
THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS GENERAL PATTERN OF A
LARGE INCOMING SWELL OFTEN ALLOWS UNWARY BEACH GOERS TO BE CAUGHT
OFF GUARD BY WAVES THAT RUN MUCH FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN WAVES
OVER THE PREVIOUS 15 TO 30 MINUTES. UNDER SIMILAR SCENARIOS IN THE
PAST...WAVES HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO KNOCK UNWARY PEOPLE AND PETS OFF
THEIR FEET BEFORE THE RECEDING WATER PULLS THEM BACK INTO THE SURF
ZONE. IN ADDITION...THESE HIGHER WAVES CAN CAUSE DRIFTWOOD THAT
SUPERFICIALLY APPEARS LOCKED IN PLACE ALONG THE BEACH TO BECOME
MOBILE AND ROLL OVER AN UNSUSPECTING PERSON AS THE WAVE PUSHES
ASHORE AND THEN RECEDES. THIS HAPPENS NEARLY EVERY YEAR ALONG THE
OREGON COAST...AND THIS IS AN IDEAL SETUP FOR THESE LARGE SNEAKER
WAVES TO DO JUST THIS. PLEASE BE COGNIZANT OF THIS WHEN RECREATING
ON BEACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE NEXT FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO
35 KT WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE GUSTS MAY APPROACH 50 KT
WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AS A SHORT LIVED COASTAL JET
DEVELOPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. WHILE THE
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BE SLOWLY TAPERING
SATURDAY...THIS RENEWED SHOT OF WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WILL
LIKELY KEEP SEAS FLIRTING WITH 20 FT FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY. EXPECT
THE HIGHEST WINDS TO TAPER AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF WINDS ENTERS THE WATERS.
OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING TO COVER
THIS PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAT THESE 35
KT WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AGAIN...THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AND KEEP SEAS WELL INTO
THE TEENS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS MAY TEMPORARILY BOTTOM OUT
NEAR 10 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A WEAK FRONT...AND ACCOMPANYING
LARGER SWELL SLIDES INTO THE WATERS TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE WHETHER OR NOT A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING WILL BE NECESSARY FOR
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST CENTERED AROUND THE HIGH TIDE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR AT 11 AM SATURDAY. GIVEN THE WILLAPA AND NASELLE RIVER FLOWS
WILL BE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND HIGH TIDE NEAR TOKE POINT IS
EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH 11 FT WITH A TIDAL ANOMALY NEAR 1 FT...WE
ARE LEANING TOWARDS NOT ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A SIMILAR TIDE HEIGHT WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY
SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME...FLOWS ON THE WILLAPA AND NASELLE RIVERS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER SO THERE IS AN INCREASED CONCERN THAT
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG LOW LYING ROADS
AROUND RAYMOND...NASELLE AND THE WILLAPA BAY IN GENERAL IN
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. GIVEN WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...WE ARE OPTING TO NOT ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...AND
WILL LIKELY WAIT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY UNTIL WE GATHER MORE GROUND
TRUTH DATA AND SUNDAY APPROACHES. THE PEAK TIME OF CONCERN ON
SUNDAY WILL BE FROM APPROXIMATELY 9 AM TO 3 PM. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE
     COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN
     OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-
     CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-
     GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH OREGON COAST-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
     SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5
     CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
     SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 191937 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1048 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE CASCADES. MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONGER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...UPPER TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT HAS JUST PASSED THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND AS SUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LESSENING. WILL SEE SOME
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE CLOUDS AND THEN
STRATIFORM PRECIP FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING.

THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE MODELS THIS
MORNING AND WE APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK FOR A SIGNIFICANT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT. COMPARED WITH
YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY LATER ONSET
OF TRUE WESTERLY 850 MB FLOW...WHICH WOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT...BUT THAT
SHOULD NOT CHANGE STORM TOTAL QPF VERY MUCH. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BASED ON FORECASTS OF FLOOD OR
NEAR FLOOD STAGE AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THE AREA.

MODELS ARE INDICATING COLD AIR WILL HANG AROUND THE S WASHINGTON
CASCADES A BIT LONGER THAN ELSEWHERE AND SW FLOW TONIGHT WILL FAVOR
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT THERE...SO HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 3500 FT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 4000 FT AROUND AND EAST OF MT HOOD INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS LOOKS LIKE THEY`LL REMAIN LESS THAN
6 INCHES DURING ANY GIVEN 6 HR PERIOD SO HAVE NOT ISSUED ANYTHING FOR
THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)....TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE COLD UPPER TROUGH. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO BELOW THE CASCADES PASSES TODAY...BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE QPF HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. NAM MODEL SOUNDING FOR KAST
WOULD INDICATE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. NAM SOUNDING VALID 17Z TODAY SHOWS AN LI OF 0 WITH A
PRETTY HEFTY SWEAT INDEX OF 335...WELL ABOVE THE GENERALIZED 250
SWEAT INDEX BENCHMARK USED FOR ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
CONFIDENCE. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THEN DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT STARTS TO STABILIZE.

THE BIGGER STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT OVER THE
WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE PAST RUNS WITH FAIRLY DECENT CONTINUITY AMONGST THE
INDIVIDUAL MODELS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP AND THE DURATION. GFS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN
DIRECTING THE BAROCLINIC BAND OVER EXTREME SW WA AND NRN OREGON. THE
NAM AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...BUT THE ECMWF SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA 12Z SUN
THROUGH 00Z MON. THE 00Z WRF-GFS 48-HR QPF TOTALS VALID 12Z SAT
THROUGH 12Z MON SHOW AT LEAST 3-6 INCHES FOR THE OREGON CASCADES AND
2-4 INCHES FOR THE OREGON COAST RANGE. IT HAS LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE S
WA CASCADES AND WILLAPA HILLS. GFS AND NAM HAVE STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE 290K SURFACE STARTING 12Z SAT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUN. 850 MB WLY FLOW OF 40-50 KT INTO THE OREGON COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES SAT THROUGH SUN WILL RESULT IN A HIGHLY EFFICIENT OROGRAPHIC
RAINFALL COMPONENT. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
TABLE...SPECIFICALLY THE ENSEMBLE MODEL CLIMATE QPF (OR M CLIMATE
QPF)...IT INDICATES A 99TH PERCENTILE OR MAX QPF EVENT FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OREGON CASCADES SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN MORNING.
THIS MEANS THAT THE GEFS ENSEMBLE IS FORECASTING AN INORDINATE AMOUNT
OF PRECIP COMPARED TO THE 1985-2012 WINTER ENSEMBLE MODEL CLIMATE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES PER SIX HOURS IN THE
CASCADES FOR A 12-18 PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...THERE IS NO LOW-ELEVATION
SNOW AND MINIMAL SNOW AT PASS LEVELS. HOWEVER...LATEST HYDRO GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW RIVERS WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE BY SUN OR MON. REFER TO
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS BUT IT
WILL BE RATHER BLUSTERY. THE NAM INDICATES A KAST-KOTH GRADIENT OF
AROUND 10 MB BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND IN THE EVENING. THE BENCHMARK
GRADIENT IS AROUND 12 MB. EXPECT 45-55 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE BEACHES
AND HEADLANDS SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

IN ADDITION...THOSE PLANNING TO BE ALONG THE COAST AT AREA BEACHES
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. RAPIDLY BUILDING
SEAS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS HIGH SURF ALONG THE
BEACHES AS EARLY AS TODAY. LONG PERIOD SWELLS MAY REACH SHORE AND
SURPRISE INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE UNAWARE. ANYONE ON THE BEACHES SHOULD
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION AND AVOID THE SURF ZONE AS LARGE WAVES MAY
WASH OVER BEACHES AND JETTIES WITH LITTLE WARNING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
AROUND HIGH TIDES. THIS THREAT COULD BE ENHANCED BY HIGH FLOWS ON
RIVERS IN RESPONSE TO THE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.  WEISHAAR

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS AGREE THE WEEKEND
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES MON...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE A DIRTY RIDGE
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HOLD ON TO SOME QPF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE NRN ZONES MON NIGHT AND TUE
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN BRING A COLDER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WED. THE ECMWF DROPS 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES TO NEAR 530 DM 00Z THU WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF.
THUS...THE CASCADES AND SKI AREAS MAY FINALLY GET A DECENT SHOT OF
SNOW. COLDER NORTH FLOW WILL FOLLOW AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL
WELL BELOW NORMAL AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT LATE WEEK. WEISHAAR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SITUATION SETTING UP FOR A MEMORABLE HYDROLOGIC EVENT
MAINLY FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. STRONG AND
DEEP MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE PACNW COAST COME
SATURDAY MORNING. A VERY LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE IS STRETCHING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC WITH ORIGINS WEST TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THIS MOIST AIR
MASS WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY A 150 TO 170 KT JET AND WESTERLY 25 TO
50 KT LOWER LEVEL WINDS. AS SUCH...THIS CONTINUES TO GIVE THE
APPEARANCE OF A CLASSIC HIGH PRECIPITATION ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT
WHERE THE DEEP MOIST FLOW WILL SPEND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME
ON A NEARLY PERPENDICULAR COURSE AGAINST THE COAST RANGE WITH THE
CASCADES TAKING A BIT HIGHER OF THE IMPACT. AS OF THE MORNING MODEL
RUNS AND RECENT NWRFC UPDATES...IT APPEARS MULTIPLE RIVERS HAVE
POTENTIAL OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONALLY...THIS EVENT HAS
SUFFICIENT DEPTH TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO THE NORTH OREGON AND
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE RIVERS WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR
NOTABLE FLOODING. HAVE ISSUED FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. KEEP IN MIND THAT DETAILS WILL ALWAYS BE IN FLUX UNDER THESE
SCENARIOS AS SUBTLE NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS COLD MAKE DRAMATIC DIFFERENCES
IN WHICH BASINS RECEIVE EXTENDED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECASTS AND IMPACTS AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT. RIVER FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR (ALL LOWER CASE).
JBONK/BOWEN

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT SPREADING WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
A DETERIORATION AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD HIGH END IFR TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z
AND 18Z SATURDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UNSTABLE SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADY RAIN INTO THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 09Z AND
18Z SATURDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM IS
THAT SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE WILL NEARLY DOUBLE IN
HEIGHT TODAY...RISING INTO THE 20 TO 23 FT RANGE WITH DOMINANT
PERIODS NEAR 18 SECONDS. ANY SMALL CRAFT VESSELS ARE URGED TO COME
ONSHORE IMMEDIATELY AS HIGHER SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO ARRIVE. BUOY
89 ABOUT 70 MILES OFFSHORE IS ALREADY REPORTING SEAS NEAR 15 FT
AT 8 AM...AND WILL LIKELY EXCEED 20 FT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID WALKING AND CLIMBING ON JETTIES ALONG THE
OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CONCERN THAT
SNEAKER WAVES WILL POSE A RISK TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC WALKING ALONG
THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS GENERAL PATTERN OF A
LARGE INCOMING SWELL OFTEN ALLOWS UNWARY BEACH GOERS TO BE CAUGHT
OFF GUARD BY WAVES THAT RUN MUCH FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN WAVES
OVER THE PREVIOUS 15 TO 30 MINUTES. UNDER SIMILAR SCENARIOS IN THE
PAST...WAVES HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO KNOCK UNWARY PEOPLE AND PETS OFF
THEIR FEET BEFORE THE RECEDING WATER PULLS THEM BACK INTO THE SURF
ZONE. IN ADDITION...THESE HIGHER WAVES CAN CAUSE DRIFTWOOD THAT
SUPERFICIALLY APPEARS LOCKED IN PLACE ALONG THE BEACH TO BECOME
MOBILE AND ROLL OVER AN UNSUSPECTING PERSON AS THE WAVE PUSHES
ASHORE AND THEN RECEDES. THIS HAPPENS NEARLY EVERY YEAR ALONG THE
OREGON COAST...AND THIS IS AN IDEAL SETUP FOR THESE LARGE SNEAKER
WAVES TO DO JUST THIS. PLEASE BE COGNIZANT OF THIS WHEN RECREATING
ON BEACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE NEXT FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO
35 KT WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE GUSTS MAY APPROACH 50 KT
WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AS A SHORT LIVED COASTAL JET
DEVELOPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. WHILE THE
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BE SLOWLY TAPERING
SATURDAY...THIS RENEWED SHOT OF WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WILL
LIKELY KEEP SEAS FLIRTING WITH 20 FT FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY. EXPECT
THE HIGHEST WINDS TO TAPER AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF WINDS ENTERS THE WATERS.
OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING TO COVER
THIS PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAT THESE 35
KT WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AGAIN...THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AND KEEP SEAS WELL INTO
THE TEENS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS MAY TEMPORARILY BOTTOM OUT
NEAR 10 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A WEAK FRONT...AND ACCOMPANYING
LARGER SWELL SLIDES INTO THE WATERS TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE WHETHER OR NOT A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING WILL BE NECESSARY FOR
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST CENTERED AROUND THE HIGH TIDE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR AT 11 AM SATURDAY. GIVEN THE WILLAPA AND NASELLE RIVER FLOWS
WILL BE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND HIGH TIDE NEAR TOKE POINT IS
EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH 11 FT WITH A TIDAL ANOMALY NEAR 1 FT...WE
ARE LEANING TOWARDS NOT ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A SIMILAR TIDE HEIGHT WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY
SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME...FLOWS ON THE WILLAPA AND NASELLE RIVERS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER SO THERE IS AN INCREASED CONCERN THAT
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG LOW LYING ROADS
AROUND RAYMOND...NASELLE AND THE WILLAPA BAY IN GENERAL IN
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. GIVEN WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...WE ARE OPTING TO NOT ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...AND
WILL LIKELY WAIT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY UNTIL WE GATHER MORE GROUND
TRUTH DATA AND SUNDAY APPROACHES. THE PEAK TIME OF CONCERN ON
SUNDAY WILL BE FROM APPROXIMATELY 9 AM TO 3 PM. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE
     COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN
     OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-
     CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-
     GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH OREGON COAST-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
     SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5
     CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
     SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 191937 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1048 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE CASCADES. MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONGER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...UPPER TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT HAS JUST PASSED THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND AS SUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LESSENING. WILL SEE SOME
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE CLOUDS AND THEN
STRATIFORM PRECIP FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING.

THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE MODELS THIS
MORNING AND WE APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK FOR A SIGNIFICANT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT. COMPARED WITH
YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY LATER ONSET
OF TRUE WESTERLY 850 MB FLOW...WHICH WOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT...BUT THAT
SHOULD NOT CHANGE STORM TOTAL QPF VERY MUCH. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BASED ON FORECASTS OF FLOOD OR
NEAR FLOOD STAGE AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THE AREA.

MODELS ARE INDICATING COLD AIR WILL HANG AROUND THE S WASHINGTON
CASCADES A BIT LONGER THAN ELSEWHERE AND SW FLOW TONIGHT WILL FAVOR
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT THERE...SO HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 3500 FT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 4000 FT AROUND AND EAST OF MT HOOD INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS LOOKS LIKE THEY`LL REMAIN LESS THAN
6 INCHES DURING ANY GIVEN 6 HR PERIOD SO HAVE NOT ISSUED ANYTHING FOR
THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)....TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE COLD UPPER TROUGH. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO BELOW THE CASCADES PASSES TODAY...BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE QPF HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. NAM MODEL SOUNDING FOR KAST
WOULD INDICATE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. NAM SOUNDING VALID 17Z TODAY SHOWS AN LI OF 0 WITH A
PRETTY HEFTY SWEAT INDEX OF 335...WELL ABOVE THE GENERALIZED 250
SWEAT INDEX BENCHMARK USED FOR ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
CONFIDENCE. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THEN DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT STARTS TO STABILIZE.

THE BIGGER STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT OVER THE
WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE PAST RUNS WITH FAIRLY DECENT CONTINUITY AMONGST THE
INDIVIDUAL MODELS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP AND THE DURATION. GFS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN
DIRECTING THE BAROCLINIC BAND OVER EXTREME SW WA AND NRN OREGON. THE
NAM AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...BUT THE ECMWF SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA 12Z SUN
THROUGH 00Z MON. THE 00Z WRF-GFS 48-HR QPF TOTALS VALID 12Z SAT
THROUGH 12Z MON SHOW AT LEAST 3-6 INCHES FOR THE OREGON CASCADES AND
2-4 INCHES FOR THE OREGON COAST RANGE. IT HAS LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE S
WA CASCADES AND WILLAPA HILLS. GFS AND NAM HAVE STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE 290K SURFACE STARTING 12Z SAT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUN. 850 MB WLY FLOW OF 40-50 KT INTO THE OREGON COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES SAT THROUGH SUN WILL RESULT IN A HIGHLY EFFICIENT OROGRAPHIC
RAINFALL COMPONENT. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
TABLE...SPECIFICALLY THE ENSEMBLE MODEL CLIMATE QPF (OR M CLIMATE
QPF)...IT INDICATES A 99TH PERCENTILE OR MAX QPF EVENT FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OREGON CASCADES SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN MORNING.
THIS MEANS THAT THE GEFS ENSEMBLE IS FORECASTING AN INORDINATE AMOUNT
OF PRECIP COMPARED TO THE 1985-2012 WINTER ENSEMBLE MODEL CLIMATE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES PER SIX HOURS IN THE
CASCADES FOR A 12-18 PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...THERE IS NO LOW-ELEVATION
SNOW AND MINIMAL SNOW AT PASS LEVELS. HOWEVER...LATEST HYDRO GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW RIVERS WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE BY SUN OR MON. REFER TO
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS BUT IT
WILL BE RATHER BLUSTERY. THE NAM INDICATES A KAST-KOTH GRADIENT OF
AROUND 10 MB BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND IN THE EVENING. THE BENCHMARK
GRADIENT IS AROUND 12 MB. EXPECT 45-55 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE BEACHES
AND HEADLANDS SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

IN ADDITION...THOSE PLANNING TO BE ALONG THE COAST AT AREA BEACHES
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. RAPIDLY BUILDING
SEAS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS HIGH SURF ALONG THE
BEACHES AS EARLY AS TODAY. LONG PERIOD SWELLS MAY REACH SHORE AND
SURPRISE INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE UNAWARE. ANYONE ON THE BEACHES SHOULD
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION AND AVOID THE SURF ZONE AS LARGE WAVES MAY
WASH OVER BEACHES AND JETTIES WITH LITTLE WARNING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
AROUND HIGH TIDES. THIS THREAT COULD BE ENHANCED BY HIGH FLOWS ON
RIVERS IN RESPONSE TO THE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.  WEISHAAR

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS AGREE THE WEEKEND
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES MON...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE A DIRTY RIDGE
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HOLD ON TO SOME QPF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE NRN ZONES MON NIGHT AND TUE
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN BRING A COLDER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WED. THE ECMWF DROPS 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES TO NEAR 530 DM 00Z THU WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF.
THUS...THE CASCADES AND SKI AREAS MAY FINALLY GET A DECENT SHOT OF
SNOW. COLDER NORTH FLOW WILL FOLLOW AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL
WELL BELOW NORMAL AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT LATE WEEK. WEISHAAR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SITUATION SETTING UP FOR A MEMORABLE HYDROLOGIC EVENT
MAINLY FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. STRONG AND
DEEP MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE PACNW COAST COME
SATURDAY MORNING. A VERY LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE IS STRETCHING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC WITH ORIGINS WEST TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THIS MOIST AIR
MASS WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY A 150 TO 170 KT JET AND WESTERLY 25 TO
50 KT LOWER LEVEL WINDS. AS SUCH...THIS CONTINUES TO GIVE THE
APPEARANCE OF A CLASSIC HIGH PRECIPITATION ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT
WHERE THE DEEP MOIST FLOW WILL SPEND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME
ON A NEARLY PERPENDICULAR COURSE AGAINST THE COAST RANGE WITH THE
CASCADES TAKING A BIT HIGHER OF THE IMPACT. AS OF THE MORNING MODEL
RUNS AND RECENT NWRFC UPDATES...IT APPEARS MULTIPLE RIVERS HAVE
POTENTIAL OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONALLY...THIS EVENT HAS
SUFFICIENT DEPTH TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO THE NORTH OREGON AND
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE RIVERS WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR
NOTABLE FLOODING. HAVE ISSUED FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. KEEP IN MIND THAT DETAILS WILL ALWAYS BE IN FLUX UNDER THESE
SCENARIOS AS SUBTLE NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS COLD MAKE DRAMATIC DIFFERENCES
IN WHICH BASINS RECEIVE EXTENDED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECASTS AND IMPACTS AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT. RIVER FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR (ALL LOWER CASE).
JBONK/BOWEN

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT SPREADING WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
A DETERIORATION AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD HIGH END IFR TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z
AND 18Z SATURDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UNSTABLE SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADY RAIN INTO THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 09Z AND
18Z SATURDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM IS
THAT SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE WILL NEARLY DOUBLE IN
HEIGHT TODAY...RISING INTO THE 20 TO 23 FT RANGE WITH DOMINANT
PERIODS NEAR 18 SECONDS. ANY SMALL CRAFT VESSELS ARE URGED TO COME
ONSHORE IMMEDIATELY AS HIGHER SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO ARRIVE. BUOY
89 ABOUT 70 MILES OFFSHORE IS ALREADY REPORTING SEAS NEAR 15 FT
AT 8 AM...AND WILL LIKELY EXCEED 20 FT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID WALKING AND CLIMBING ON JETTIES ALONG THE
OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CONCERN THAT
SNEAKER WAVES WILL POSE A RISK TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC WALKING ALONG
THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS GENERAL PATTERN OF A
LARGE INCOMING SWELL OFTEN ALLOWS UNWARY BEACH GOERS TO BE CAUGHT
OFF GUARD BY WAVES THAT RUN MUCH FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN WAVES
OVER THE PREVIOUS 15 TO 30 MINUTES. UNDER SIMILAR SCENARIOS IN THE
PAST...WAVES HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO KNOCK UNWARY PEOPLE AND PETS OFF
THEIR FEET BEFORE THE RECEDING WATER PULLS THEM BACK INTO THE SURF
ZONE. IN ADDITION...THESE HIGHER WAVES CAN CAUSE DRIFTWOOD THAT
SUPERFICIALLY APPEARS LOCKED IN PLACE ALONG THE BEACH TO BECOME
MOBILE AND ROLL OVER AN UNSUSPECTING PERSON AS THE WAVE PUSHES
ASHORE AND THEN RECEDES. THIS HAPPENS NEARLY EVERY YEAR ALONG THE
OREGON COAST...AND THIS IS AN IDEAL SETUP FOR THESE LARGE SNEAKER
WAVES TO DO JUST THIS. PLEASE BE COGNIZANT OF THIS WHEN RECREATING
ON BEACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE NEXT FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO
35 KT WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE GUSTS MAY APPROACH 50 KT
WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AS A SHORT LIVED COASTAL JET
DEVELOPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. WHILE THE
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BE SLOWLY TAPERING
SATURDAY...THIS RENEWED SHOT OF WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WILL
LIKELY KEEP SEAS FLIRTING WITH 20 FT FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY. EXPECT
THE HIGHEST WINDS TO TAPER AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF WINDS ENTERS THE WATERS.
OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING TO COVER
THIS PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAT THESE 35
KT WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AGAIN...THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AND KEEP SEAS WELL INTO
THE TEENS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS MAY TEMPORARILY BOTTOM OUT
NEAR 10 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A WEAK FRONT...AND ACCOMPANYING
LARGER SWELL SLIDES INTO THE WATERS TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE WHETHER OR NOT A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING WILL BE NECESSARY FOR
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST CENTERED AROUND THE HIGH TIDE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR AT 11 AM SATURDAY. GIVEN THE WILLAPA AND NASELLE RIVER FLOWS
WILL BE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND HIGH TIDE NEAR TOKE POINT IS
EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH 11 FT WITH A TIDAL ANOMALY NEAR 1 FT...WE
ARE LEANING TOWARDS NOT ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A SIMILAR TIDE HEIGHT WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY
SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME...FLOWS ON THE WILLAPA AND NASELLE RIVERS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER SO THERE IS AN INCREASED CONCERN THAT
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG LOW LYING ROADS
AROUND RAYMOND...NASELLE AND THE WILLAPA BAY IN GENERAL IN
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. GIVEN WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...WE ARE OPTING TO NOT ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...AND
WILL LIKELY WAIT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY UNTIL WE GATHER MORE GROUND
TRUTH DATA AND SUNDAY APPROACHES. THE PEAK TIME OF CONCERN ON
SUNDAY WILL BE FROM APPROXIMATELY 9 AM TO 3 PM. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE
     COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN
     OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-
     CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-
     GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH OREGON COAST-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
     SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5
     CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
     SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 191848
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1048 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE CASCADES. MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONGER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...UPPER TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT HAS JUST PASSED THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND AS SUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LESSENING. WILL SEE SOME
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE CLOUDS AND THEN
STRATIFORM PRECIP FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING.

THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE MODELS THIS
MORNING AND WE APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK FOR A SIGNIFICANT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT. COMPARED WITH
YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY LATER ONSET
OF TRUE WESTERLY 850 MB FLOW...WHICH WOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT...BUT THAT
SHOULD NOT CHANGE STORM TOTAL QPF VERY MUCH. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BASED ON FORECASTS OF FLOOD OR
NEAR FLOOD STAGE AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THE AREA.

MODELS ARE INDICATING COLD AIR WILL HANG AROUND THE S WASHINGTON
CASCADES A BIT LONGER THAN ELSEWHERE AND SW FLOW TONIGHT WILL FAVOR
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT THERE...SO HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 3500 FT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 4000 FT AROUND AND EAST OF MT HOOD INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS LOOKS LIKE THEY`LL REMAIN LESS THAN
6 INCHES DURING ANY GIVEN 6 HR PERIOD SO HAVE NOT ISSUED ANYTHING FOR
THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)....TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE COLD UPPER TROUGH. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO BELOW THE CASCADES PASSES TODAY...BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE QPF HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. NAM MODEL SOUNDING FOR KAST
WOULD INDICATE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. NAM SOUNDING VALID 17Z TODAY SHOWS AN LI OF 0 WITH A
PRETTY HEFTY SWEAT INDEX OF 335...WELL ABOVE THE GENERALIZED 250
SWEAT INDEX BENCHMARK USED FOR ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
CONFIDENCE. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THEN DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT STARTS TO STABILIZE.

THE BIGGER STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT OVER THE
WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE PAST RUNS WITH FAIRLY DECENT CONTINUITY AMONGST THE
INDIVIDUAL MODELS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP AND THE DURATION. GFS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN
DIRECTING THE BAROCLINIC BAND OVER EXTREME SW WA AND NRN OREGON. THE
NAM AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...BUT THE ECMWF SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA 12Z SUN
THROUGH 00Z MON. THE 00Z WRF-GFS 48-HR QPF TOTALS VALID 12Z SAT
THROUGH 12Z MON SHOW AT LEAST 3-6 INCHES FOR THE OREGON CASCADES AND
2-4 INCHES FOR THE OREGON COAST RANGE. IT HAS LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE S
WA CASCADES AND WILLAPA HILLS. GFS AND NAM HAVE STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE 290K SURFACE STARTING 12Z SAT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUN. 850 MB WLY FLOW OF 40-50 KT INTO THE OREGON COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES SAT THROUGH SUN WILL RESULT IN A HIGHLY EFFICIENT OROGRAPHIC
RAINFALL COMPONENT. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
TABLE...SPECIFICALLY THE ENSEMBLE MODEL CLIMATE QPF (OR M CLIMATE
QPF)...IT INDICATES A 99TH PERCENTILE OR MAX QPF EVENT FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OREGON CASCADES SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN MORNING.
THIS MEANS THAT THE GEFS ENSEMBLE IS FORECASTING AN INORDINATE AMOUNT
OF PRECIP COMPARED TO THE 1985-2012 WINTER ENSEMBLE MODEL CLIMATE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES PER SIX HOURS IN THE
CASCADES FOR A 12-18 PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...THERE IS NO LOW-ELEVATION
SNOW AND MINIMAL SNOW AT PASS LEVELS. HOWEVER...LATEST HYDRO GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW RIVERS WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE BY SUN OR MON. REFER TO
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS BUT IT
WILL BE RATHER BLUSTERY. THE NAM INDICATES A KAST-KOTH GRADIENT OF
AROUND 10 MB BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND IN THE EVENING. THE BENCHMARK
GRADIENT IS AROUND 12 MB. EXPECT 45-55 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE BEACHES
AND HEADLANDS SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

IN ADDITION...THOSE PLANNING TO BE ALONG THE COAST AT AREA BEACHES
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. RAPIDLY BUILDING
SEAS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS HIGH SURF ALONG THE
BEACHES AS EARLY AS TODAY. LONG PERIOD SWELLS MAY REACH SHORE AND
SURPRISE INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE UNAWARE. ANYONE ON THE BEACHES SHOULD
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION AND AVOID THE SURF ZONE AS LARGE WAVES MAY
WASH OVER BEACHES AND JETTIES WITH LITTLE WARNING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
AROUND HIGH TIDES. THIS THREAT COULD BE ENHANCED BY HIGH FLOWS ON
RIVERS IN RESPONSE TO THE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.  WEISHAAR

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS AGREE THE WEEKEND
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES MON...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE A DIRTY RIDGE
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HOLD ON TO SOME QPF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE NRN ZONES MON NIGHT AND TUE
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN BRING A COLDER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WED. THE ECMWF DROPS 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES TO NEAR 530 DM 00Z THU WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF.
THUS...THE CASCADES AND SKI AREAS MAY FINALLY GET A DECENT SHOT OF
SNOW. COLDER NORTH FLOW WILL FOLLOW AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL
WELL BELOW NORMAL AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT LATE WEEK. WEISHAAR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SITUATION SETTING UP FOR A MEMORABLE HYDROLOGIC EVENT
MAINLY FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. STRONG AND
DEEP MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE PACNW COAST COME
SATURDAY MORNING. A VERY LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE IS STRETCHING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC WITH ORIGINS WEST TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THIS MOIST AIR
MASS WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY A 150 TO 170 KT JET AND WESTERLY 25 TO
50 KT LOWER LEVEL WINDS. AS SUCH...THIS CONTINUES TO GIVE THE
APPEARANCE OF A CLASSIC HIGH PRECIPITATION ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT
WHERE THE DEEP MOIST FLOW WILL SPEND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME
ON A NEARLY PERPENDICULAR COURSE AGAINST THE COAST RANGE WITH THE
CASCADES TAKING A BIT HIGHER OF THE IMPACT. AS OF THE MORNING MODEL
RUNS AND RECENT NWRFC UPDATES...IT APPEARS MULTIPLE RIVERS HAVE
POTENTIAL OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONALLY...THIS EVENT HAS
SUFFICIENT DEPTH TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO THE NORTH OREGON AND
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE RIVERS WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR
NOTABLE FLOODING. HAVE ISSUED FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. KEEP IN MIND THAT DETAILS WILL ALWAYS BE IN FLUX UNDER THESE
SCENARIOS AS SUBTLE NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS COLD MAKE DRAMATIC DIFFERENCES
IN WHICH BASINS RECEIVE EXTENDED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECASTS AND IMPACTS AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT. RIVER FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR (ALL LOWER CASE).
JBONK/BOWEN

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT SPREADING WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
A DETERIORATION AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD HIGH END IFR TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z
AND 18Z SATURDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UNSTABLE SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADY RAIN INTO THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 09Z AND
18Z SATURDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM IS
THAT SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE WILL NEARLY DOUBLE IN
HEIGHT TODAY...RISING INTO THE 20 TO 23 FT RANGE WITH DOMINANT
PERIODS NEAR 18 SECONDS. ANY SMALL CRAFT VESSELS ARE URGED TO COME
ONSHORE IMMEDIATELY AS HIGHER SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO ARRIVE. BUOY
89 ABOUT 70 MILES OFFSHORE IS ALREADY REPORTING SEAS NEAR 15 FT
AT 8 AM...AND WILL LIKELY EXCEED 20 FT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID WALKING AND CLIMBING ON JETTIES ALONG THE
OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CONCERN THAT
SNEAKER WAVES WILL POSE A RISK TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC WALKING ALONG
THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS GENERAL PATTERN OF A
LARGE INCOMING SWELL OFTEN ALLOWS UNWARY BEACH GOERS TO BE CAUGHT
OFF GUARD BY WAVES THAT RUN MUCH FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN WAVES
OVER THE PREVIOUS 15 TO 30 MINUTES. UNDER SIMILAR SCENARIOS IN THE
PAST...WAVES HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO KNOCK UNWARY PEOPLE AND PETS OFF
THEIR FEET BEFORE THE RECEDING WATER PULLS THEN BACK INTO THE SURF
ZONE. IN ADDITION...THESE HIGHER WAVES CAN CAUSE DRIFTWOOD THAT
APPEARS LOCKED IN PLACE ALONG THE BEACH TO BECOME MOBILE AND ROLL
OVER AN UNSUSPECTING PERSON. AGAIN...THIS HAPPENS NEARLY EVERY
YEAR ALONG THE OREGON COAST...AND THIS IS AN IDEAL SETUP FOR THESE
LARGE SNEAKER WAVES TO DO JUST THIS. PLEASE BE COGNIZANT OF THIS
WHEN RECREATING ON BEACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE NEXT FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO
35 KT WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE GUSTS MAY APPROACH 50 KT
WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AS A SHORT LIVED COASTAL JET
DEVELOPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. WHILE THE
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BE SLOWLY TAPERING
SATURDAY...THIS RENEWED SHOT OF WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WILL
LIKELY KEEP SEAS FLIRTING WITH 20 FT FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY. EXPECT
THE HIGHEST WINDS TO TAPER AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF WINDS ENTERS THE WATERS.
OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING TO COVER
THIS PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAT THESE 35
KT WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AGAIN...THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AND KEEP SEAS WELL INTO
THE TEENS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS MAY TEMPORARILY BOTTOM OUT
NEAR 10 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A WEAK FRONT...AND ACCOMPANYING
LARGER SWELL SLIDES INTO THE WATERS TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE WHETHER OR NOT A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING WILL BE NECESSARY FOR
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST CENTERED AROUND THE HIGH TIDE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR AT 11 AM SATURDAY. GIVEN THE WILLAPA AND NASELLE RIVER FLOWS
WILL BE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND HIGH TIDE NEAR TOKE POINT IS
EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH 11 FT WITH A TIDAL ANOMALY NEAR 1 FT...WE
ARE LEANING TOWARDS NOT ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A SIMILAR TIDE HEIGHT WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY
SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME...FLOWS ON THE WILLAPA AND NASELLE RIVERS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER SO THERE IS AN INCREASED CONCERN THAT
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG LOW LYING ROADS
AROUND RAYMOND...NASELLE AND THE WILLAPA BAY IN GENERAL IN
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. GIVEN WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...WE ARE OPTING TO NOT ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...AND
WILL LIKELY WAIT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY UNTIL WE GATHER MORE GROUND
TRUTH DATA AND SUNDAY APPROACHES. THE PEAK TIME OF CONCERN ON
SUNDAY WILL BE FROM APPROXIMATELY 9 AM TO 3 PM. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE
     COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN
     OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-
     CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-
     GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH OREGON COAST-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
     SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5
     CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
     SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 191848
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1048 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE CASCADES. MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONGER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...UPPER TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT HAS JUST PASSED THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND AS SUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LESSENING. WILL SEE SOME
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE CLOUDS AND THEN
STRATIFORM PRECIP FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING.

THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE MODELS THIS
MORNING AND WE APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK FOR A SIGNIFICANT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT. COMPARED WITH
YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY LATER ONSET
OF TRUE WESTERLY 850 MB FLOW...WHICH WOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT...BUT THAT
SHOULD NOT CHANGE STORM TOTAL QPF VERY MUCH. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BASED ON FORECASTS OF FLOOD OR
NEAR FLOOD STAGE AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THE AREA.

MODELS ARE INDICATING COLD AIR WILL HANG AROUND THE S WASHINGTON
CASCADES A BIT LONGER THAN ELSEWHERE AND SW FLOW TONIGHT WILL FAVOR
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT THERE...SO HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 3500 FT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 4000 FT AROUND AND EAST OF MT HOOD INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS LOOKS LIKE THEY`LL REMAIN LESS THAN
6 INCHES DURING ANY GIVEN 6 HR PERIOD SO HAVE NOT ISSUED ANYTHING FOR
THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)....TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE COLD UPPER TROUGH. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO BELOW THE CASCADES PASSES TODAY...BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE QPF HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. NAM MODEL SOUNDING FOR KAST
WOULD INDICATE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. NAM SOUNDING VALID 17Z TODAY SHOWS AN LI OF 0 WITH A
PRETTY HEFTY SWEAT INDEX OF 335...WELL ABOVE THE GENERALIZED 250
SWEAT INDEX BENCHMARK USED FOR ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
CONFIDENCE. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THEN DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT STARTS TO STABILIZE.

THE BIGGER STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT OVER THE
WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE PAST RUNS WITH FAIRLY DECENT CONTINUITY AMONGST THE
INDIVIDUAL MODELS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP AND THE DURATION. GFS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN
DIRECTING THE BAROCLINIC BAND OVER EXTREME SW WA AND NRN OREGON. THE
NAM AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...BUT THE ECMWF SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA 12Z SUN
THROUGH 00Z MON. THE 00Z WRF-GFS 48-HR QPF TOTALS VALID 12Z SAT
THROUGH 12Z MON SHOW AT LEAST 3-6 INCHES FOR THE OREGON CASCADES AND
2-4 INCHES FOR THE OREGON COAST RANGE. IT HAS LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE S
WA CASCADES AND WILLAPA HILLS. GFS AND NAM HAVE STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE 290K SURFACE STARTING 12Z SAT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUN. 850 MB WLY FLOW OF 40-50 KT INTO THE OREGON COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES SAT THROUGH SUN WILL RESULT IN A HIGHLY EFFICIENT OROGRAPHIC
RAINFALL COMPONENT. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
TABLE...SPECIFICALLY THE ENSEMBLE MODEL CLIMATE QPF (OR M CLIMATE
QPF)...IT INDICATES A 99TH PERCENTILE OR MAX QPF EVENT FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OREGON CASCADES SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN MORNING.
THIS MEANS THAT THE GEFS ENSEMBLE IS FORECASTING AN INORDINATE AMOUNT
OF PRECIP COMPARED TO THE 1985-2012 WINTER ENSEMBLE MODEL CLIMATE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES PER SIX HOURS IN THE
CASCADES FOR A 12-18 PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...THERE IS NO LOW-ELEVATION
SNOW AND MINIMAL SNOW AT PASS LEVELS. HOWEVER...LATEST HYDRO GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW RIVERS WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE BY SUN OR MON. REFER TO
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS BUT IT
WILL BE RATHER BLUSTERY. THE NAM INDICATES A KAST-KOTH GRADIENT OF
AROUND 10 MB BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND IN THE EVENING. THE BENCHMARK
GRADIENT IS AROUND 12 MB. EXPECT 45-55 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE BEACHES
AND HEADLANDS SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

IN ADDITION...THOSE PLANNING TO BE ALONG THE COAST AT AREA BEACHES
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. RAPIDLY BUILDING
SEAS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS HIGH SURF ALONG THE
BEACHES AS EARLY AS TODAY. LONG PERIOD SWELLS MAY REACH SHORE AND
SURPRISE INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE UNAWARE. ANYONE ON THE BEACHES SHOULD
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION AND AVOID THE SURF ZONE AS LARGE WAVES MAY
WASH OVER BEACHES AND JETTIES WITH LITTLE WARNING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
AROUND HIGH TIDES. THIS THREAT COULD BE ENHANCED BY HIGH FLOWS ON
RIVERS IN RESPONSE TO THE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.  WEISHAAR

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS AGREE THE WEEKEND
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES MON...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE A DIRTY RIDGE
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HOLD ON TO SOME QPF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE NRN ZONES MON NIGHT AND TUE
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN BRING A COLDER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WED. THE ECMWF DROPS 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES TO NEAR 530 DM 00Z THU WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF.
THUS...THE CASCADES AND SKI AREAS MAY FINALLY GET A DECENT SHOT OF
SNOW. COLDER NORTH FLOW WILL FOLLOW AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL
WELL BELOW NORMAL AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT LATE WEEK. WEISHAAR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SITUATION SETTING UP FOR A MEMORABLE HYDROLOGIC EVENT
MAINLY FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. STRONG AND
DEEP MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE PACNW COAST COME
SATURDAY MORNING. A VERY LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE IS STRETCHING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC WITH ORIGINS WEST TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THIS MOIST AIR
MASS WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY A 150 TO 170 KT JET AND WESTERLY 25 TO
50 KT LOWER LEVEL WINDS. AS SUCH...THIS CONTINUES TO GIVE THE
APPEARANCE OF A CLASSIC HIGH PRECIPITATION ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT
WHERE THE DEEP MOIST FLOW WILL SPEND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME
ON A NEARLY PERPENDICULAR COURSE AGAINST THE COAST RANGE WITH THE
CASCADES TAKING A BIT HIGHER OF THE IMPACT. AS OF THE MORNING MODEL
RUNS AND RECENT NWRFC UPDATES...IT APPEARS MULTIPLE RIVERS HAVE
POTENTIAL OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONALLY...THIS EVENT HAS
SUFFICIENT DEPTH TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO THE NORTH OREGON AND
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE RIVERS WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR
NOTABLE FLOODING. HAVE ISSUED FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. KEEP IN MIND THAT DETAILS WILL ALWAYS BE IN FLUX UNDER THESE
SCENARIOS AS SUBTLE NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS COLD MAKE DRAMATIC DIFFERENCES
IN WHICH BASINS RECEIVE EXTENDED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECASTS AND IMPACTS AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT. RIVER FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR (ALL LOWER CASE).
JBONK/BOWEN

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT SPREADING WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
A DETERIORATION AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD HIGH END IFR TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z
AND 18Z SATURDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UNSTABLE SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADY RAIN INTO THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 09Z AND
18Z SATURDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM IS
THAT SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE WILL NEARLY DOUBLE IN
HEIGHT TODAY...RISING INTO THE 20 TO 23 FT RANGE WITH DOMINANT
PERIODS NEAR 18 SECONDS. ANY SMALL CRAFT VESSELS ARE URGED TO COME
ONSHORE IMMEDIATELY AS HIGHER SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO ARRIVE. BUOY
89 ABOUT 70 MILES OFFSHORE IS ALREADY REPORTING SEAS NEAR 15 FT
AT 8 AM...AND WILL LIKELY EXCEED 20 FT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID WALKING AND CLIMBING ON JETTIES ALONG THE
OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CONCERN THAT
SNEAKER WAVES WILL POSE A RISK TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC WALKING ALONG
THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS GENERAL PATTERN OF A
LARGE INCOMING SWELL OFTEN ALLOWS UNWARY BEACH GOERS TO BE CAUGHT
OFF GUARD BY WAVES THAT RUN MUCH FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN WAVES
OVER THE PREVIOUS 15 TO 30 MINUTES. UNDER SIMILAR SCENARIOS IN THE
PAST...WAVES HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO KNOCK UNWARY PEOPLE AND PETS OFF
THEIR FEET BEFORE THE RECEDING WATER PULLS THEN BACK INTO THE SURF
ZONE. IN ADDITION...THESE HIGHER WAVES CAN CAUSE DRIFTWOOD THAT
APPEARS LOCKED IN PLACE ALONG THE BEACH TO BECOME MOBILE AND ROLL
OVER AN UNSUSPECTING PERSON. AGAIN...THIS HAPPENS NEARLY EVERY
YEAR ALONG THE OREGON COAST...AND THIS IS AN IDEAL SETUP FOR THESE
LARGE SNEAKER WAVES TO DO JUST THIS. PLEASE BE COGNIZANT OF THIS
WHEN RECREATING ON BEACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE NEXT FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO
35 KT WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE GUSTS MAY APPROACH 50 KT
WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AS A SHORT LIVED COASTAL JET
DEVELOPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. WHILE THE
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BE SLOWLY TAPERING
SATURDAY...THIS RENEWED SHOT OF WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WILL
LIKELY KEEP SEAS FLIRTING WITH 20 FT FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY. EXPECT
THE HIGHEST WINDS TO TAPER AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF WINDS ENTERS THE WATERS.
OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING TO COVER
THIS PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAT THESE 35
KT WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AGAIN...THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AND KEEP SEAS WELL INTO
THE TEENS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS MAY TEMPORARILY BOTTOM OUT
NEAR 10 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A WEAK FRONT...AND ACCOMPANYING
LARGER SWELL SLIDES INTO THE WATERS TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE WHETHER OR NOT A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING WILL BE NECESSARY FOR
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST CENTERED AROUND THE HIGH TIDE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR AT 11 AM SATURDAY. GIVEN THE WILLAPA AND NASELLE RIVER FLOWS
WILL BE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND HIGH TIDE NEAR TOKE POINT IS
EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH 11 FT WITH A TIDAL ANOMALY NEAR 1 FT...WE
ARE LEANING TOWARDS NOT ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A SIMILAR TIDE HEIGHT WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY
SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME...FLOWS ON THE WILLAPA AND NASELLE RIVERS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER SO THERE IS AN INCREASED CONCERN THAT
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG LOW LYING ROADS
AROUND RAYMOND...NASELLE AND THE WILLAPA BAY IN GENERAL IN
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. GIVEN WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...WE ARE OPTING TO NOT ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...AND
WILL LIKELY WAIT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY UNTIL WE GATHER MORE GROUND
TRUTH DATA AND SUNDAY APPROACHES. THE PEAK TIME OF CONCERN ON
SUNDAY WILL BE FROM APPROXIMATELY 9 AM TO 3 PM. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE
     COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN
     OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-
     CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-
     GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH OREGON COAST-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
     SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5
     CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
     SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 191803 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1000 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...THE LATEST PACIFIC SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN END OF OUR AREA WITH THE STEADIEST
PRECIP FROM THE EASTERN BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS EASTWARD. ELSEWHERE
PRECIP IS LIGHT AND SPOTTY. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES
HIGH NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO INDICATE A GRADUAL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY BETWEEN THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN BETWEEN 2500 AND 2800 FEET OVER
CENTRAL WASHINGTON, BUT SHOULD RISE TO NEAR 3000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO RUN BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET THROUGH THE DAY. AS SUCH HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS
UPDATE. SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE 3 INCHES OR LESS WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES ABOVE 5000 FEET. WINDS OVER THE
BASIN WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY, BUT MIXING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE.
MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
WINDS. THUS WILL ALLOW THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY END AT 10 AM.
PATCHES OF FOG, WITH VERY LIMITED DENSE FOG, WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. 90

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN THIS MORNING WITH KPDT RADAR SHOWING RAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND -RA
AT KPDT AND KALW, WHICH SHOULD END BY 20Z. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 20Z TO VFR. HOWEVER, KYKM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR/IFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 03Z/20TH
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER  TO MVFR/IFR WITH SOME FOG THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
LIFR VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.  POLAN

&&

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGH SNOW LEVELS.
THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND RAINFALL ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT
WILL ALSO BE WINDY SUNDAY MORNING WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
POSSIBLE. A SLIGHT DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. ON WEDNESDAY A
MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AREAWIDE. THE SNOW WILL LINGER IN THE EAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY. AS
OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT. IT
WILL BE COLD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  34  49  43 /  80  20  80  80
ALW  48  36  48  43 /  80  20  80  80
PSC  47  36  48  40 /  60  10  80  50
YKM  43  32  42  33 /  30  20  80  40
HRI  47  35  49  41 /  60  20  80  50
ELN  41  31  39  31 /  30  20  80  70
RDM  45  33  48  39 /  60  30  80  60
LGD  45  34  42  38 /  80  20  90  90
GCD  46  33  42  39 /  80  20  80  90
DLS  47  36  46  41 /  50  30  90  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/78/99






000
FXUS66 KPDT 191803 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1000 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...THE LATEST PACIFIC SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN END OF OUR AREA WITH THE STEADIEST
PRECIP FROM THE EASTERN BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS EASTWARD. ELSEWHERE
PRECIP IS LIGHT AND SPOTTY. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES
HIGH NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO INDICATE A GRADUAL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY BETWEEN THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN BETWEEN 2500 AND 2800 FEET OVER
CENTRAL WASHINGTON, BUT SHOULD RISE TO NEAR 3000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO RUN BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET THROUGH THE DAY. AS SUCH HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS
UPDATE. SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE 3 INCHES OR LESS WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES ABOVE 5000 FEET. WINDS OVER THE
BASIN WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY, BUT MIXING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE.
MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
WINDS. THUS WILL ALLOW THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY END AT 10 AM.
PATCHES OF FOG, WITH VERY LIMITED DENSE FOG, WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. 90

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN THIS MORNING WITH KPDT RADAR SHOWING RAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND -RA
AT KPDT AND KALW, WHICH SHOULD END BY 20Z. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 20Z TO VFR. HOWEVER, KYKM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR/IFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 03Z/20TH
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER  TO MVFR/IFR WITH SOME FOG THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
LIFR VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.  POLAN

&&

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGH SNOW LEVELS.
THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND RAINFALL ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT
WILL ALSO BE WINDY SUNDAY MORNING WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
POSSIBLE. A SLIGHT DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. ON WEDNESDAY A
MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AREAWIDE. THE SNOW WILL LINGER IN THE EAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY. AS
OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT. IT
WILL BE COLD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  34  49  43 /  80  20  80  80
ALW  48  36  48  43 /  80  20  80  80
PSC  47  36  48  40 /  60  10  80  50
YKM  43  32  42  33 /  30  20  80  40
HRI  47  35  49  41 /  60  20  80  50
ELN  41  31  39  31 /  30  20  80  70
RDM  45  33  48  39 /  60  30  80  60
LGD  45  34  42  38 /  80  20  90  90
GCD  46  33  42  39 /  80  20  80  90
DLS  47  36  46  41 /  50  30  90  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/78/99







000
FXUS66 KPDT 191753
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
952 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...THE LATEST PACIFIC SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN END OF OUR AREA WITH THE STEADIEST
PRECIP FROM THE EASTERN BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS EASTWARD. ELSEWHERE
PRECIP IS LIGHT AND SPOTTY. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES
HIGH NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO INDICATE A GRADUAL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY BETWEEN THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN BETWEEN 2500 AND 2800 FEET OVER
CENTRAL WASHINGTON, BUT SHOULD RISE TO NEAR 3000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO RUN BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET THROUGH THE DAY. AS SUCH HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS
UPDATE. SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE 3 INCHES OR LESS WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES ABOVE 5000 FEET. WINDS OVER THE
BASIN WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY, BUT MIXING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE.
MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
WINDS. THUS WILL ALLOW THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY END AT 10 AM.
PATCHES OF FOG, WITH VERY LIMITED DENSE FOG, WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGH SNOW LEVELS.
THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND RAINFALL ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT
WILL ALSO BE WINDY SUNDAY MORNING WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
POSSIBLE. A SLIGHT DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. ON WEDNESDAY A
MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AREAWIDE. THE SNOW WILL LINGER IN THE EAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY. AS
OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT. IT
WILL BE COLD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT AFTER 18Z POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME 5
TO 10 KT WINDS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM THE SW. AFTER
03Z EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN TO MVFR/IFR WITH SOME FOG FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. LIFR VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  34  49  43 /  80  20  80  80
ALW  48  36  48  43 /  80  20  80  80
PSC  47  36  48  40 /  60  10  80  50
YKM  43  32  42  33 /  30  20  80  40
HRI  47  35  49  41 /  60  20  80  50
ELN  41  31  39  31 /  30  20  80  70
RDM  45  33  48  39 /  60  30  80  60
LGD  45  34  42  38 /  80  20  90  90
GCD  46  33  42  39 /  80  20  80  90
DLS  47  36  46  41 /  50  30  90  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/78/99








000
FXUS66 KPDT 191753
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
952 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...THE LATEST PACIFIC SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN END OF OUR AREA WITH THE STEADIEST
PRECIP FROM THE EASTERN BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS EASTWARD. ELSEWHERE
PRECIP IS LIGHT AND SPOTTY. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES
HIGH NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO INDICATE A GRADUAL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY BETWEEN THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN BETWEEN 2500 AND 2800 FEET OVER
CENTRAL WASHINGTON, BUT SHOULD RISE TO NEAR 3000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO RUN BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET THROUGH THE DAY. AS SUCH HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS
UPDATE. SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE 3 INCHES OR LESS WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES ABOVE 5000 FEET. WINDS OVER THE
BASIN WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY, BUT MIXING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE.
MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
WINDS. THUS WILL ALLOW THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY END AT 10 AM.
PATCHES OF FOG, WITH VERY LIMITED DENSE FOG, WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGH SNOW LEVELS.
THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND RAINFALL ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT
WILL ALSO BE WINDY SUNDAY MORNING WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
POSSIBLE. A SLIGHT DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. ON WEDNESDAY A
MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AREAWIDE. THE SNOW WILL LINGER IN THE EAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY. AS
OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT. IT
WILL BE COLD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT AFTER 18Z POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME 5
TO 10 KT WINDS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM THE SW. AFTER
03Z EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN TO MVFR/IFR WITH SOME FOG FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. LIFR VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  34  49  43 /  80  20  80  80
ALW  48  36  48  43 /  80  20  80  80
PSC  47  36  48  40 /  60  10  80  50
YKM  43  32  42  33 /  30  20  80  40
HRI  47  35  49  41 /  60  20  80  50
ELN  41  31  39  31 /  30  20  80  70
RDM  45  33  48  39 /  60  30  80  60
LGD  45  34  42  38 /  80  20  90  90
GCD  46  33  42  39 /  80  20  80  90
DLS  47  36  46  41 /  50  30  90  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/78/99









000
FXUS66 KMFR 191736
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
936 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...BEHIND A FRONT, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
WITH DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE
MAINLY LIGHT AND EXPECT SOME SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR 4500 FT AND HIGHER. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE MOUNTAIN PASSES TODAY. THEN MODELS ARE ON
TRACK WITH AN EXTREMELY WET WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE
COAST SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

THE GFS AND SREF ARE SHOWING HIGH PRECIPITABLE  WATER VALUES OF
1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES MOVING INTO THE COAST WITH STRONG ONSHORE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE COAST
AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WITH AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
EXPECTED. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR
WEST SIDE VALLEYS.

SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FROM 4500 TO 5500 FT TONIGHT TO
7000 TO 9000 FT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE CONCERN WITH
SNOW LEVELS IS WHETHER SNOW LEVELS MAY REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR EAST SIDE LOCATIONS. CURRENT
MODELS SHOW SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE VALLEY FLOORS WITH
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4500 TO 5000 FT SEEING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND MAY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
RIVER FLOODING, MAINLY ALONG THE COQUILLE, AND FOR SMALL STREAM
RIVER FLOODING.

ALSO WITH THE FRONT, EXPECT SOME GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY,
MAINLY FOR COASTAL AREAS, THE MOUNTAINS, AND INTO THE EAST SIDE AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA.

RAINFALL CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY BUT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUILDS INTO THE AREA, EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DECREASE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TAPER OFF THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING IN SHOWERS, WITH MOSTLY OBSCURED HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT THIS
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, WITH THE
WARM FRONT, EXPECT PRIMARY MVFR AND IFR TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH TOTAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATION. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 515 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014... ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND NEAR COAST AND SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. HEAVY WEST
SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET AT 18 SECONDS FRIDAY
EVENING. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THIS WARM FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO AS SEAS SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
MODERATE TO STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND SOME MOUNTAIN AND EAST SIDE SNOWFALL AS SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4000 FEET THIS MORNING.

MODERATE SNOWFALL IS BEING OBSERVED ON WEBCAMS AT DIAMOND LAKE...AND
ALONG HIGHWAY 97 AT CHEMULT THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS
THE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW OVER THE CASCADES AND HIGHWAY 97 SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME BEFORE SUNRISE. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
CASCADES AT TIMES TODAY WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER COOS AND WESTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS MORNING AS SOME STRIKES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE COAST THIS MORNING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

ATTENTION TURNS TO AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT THAT WILL BRING A
RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE RETREATS TO THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 4000
AND 5000 FEET WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...SO MOUNTAIN PASSES
SHOULD GET A QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SNOW LEVELS BUMP ABOVE 5000 FEET MID TO LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...TRAVELERS WANTING TO AVOID SNOWFALL
OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES SHOULD WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON TO TRAVEL.
HOWEVER...ALL TRAVELERS IN THE AREA WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ON SATURDAY AT LEAST. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY AT THE COAST AND EAST SIDE SATURDAY. 850 MB
WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND MODELS SUGGEST A 7-9 MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM OTH- ACV...WHICH MAKES GUSTS TO 50 MPH SEEM
VERY REASONABLE. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WANT TO BUMP THIS UP EVEN
FURTHER IF DATA SUPPORTS THIS. WE INCREASED WINDS NEAR SUMMER LAKE
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS 50-70KT 700MB WINDS TRAVERSE THAT AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...HAVE INCREASED SHASTA VALLEY WINDS SIMPLY DUE TO
THE STRONG SOUTH TO NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT EVEN THOUGH THE 700MB
WINDS ARE FROM THE WEST.

THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK COVERS THE HEAVY RAIN SITUATION WELL AT THIS
TIME. LATEST RIVER MODELS SUGGEST THE COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE
REACHES ACTION STAGE...AND A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF FUTURE
RUNS INCREASE THIS FURTHER.  THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND
BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WHICH
BASICALLY IS 5 INCHES FOR THE OROGRAPHIC-FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE
COAST RANGE AND 5 INCHES FOR THE CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.
INTERESTINGLY...INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT...AN INDICATOR OF HOW
SIGNIFICANT A RAINMAKER THIS SYSTEM WILL BE...TRENDS HAVE DECREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS...BUT STILL ARE
IMPRESSIVE WITH 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE MOST
RECENT RUN.  SNOW LEVELS WILL PEAK AT 9000 FEET LATE SUNDAY...AND
MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL FALL AS
RAIN...ENTERING THE RIVERS AND STREAMS.  THIS AGAIN SUGGESTS THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WITH THIS STORM.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD SYSTEM DROPS
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND EXHIBITS QUITE DIFFERENT BEHAVIOR
THAN THE LAST SYSTEM...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING SHARPLY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AS LOW AS 3000 FEET. THIS OF COURSE IS OF
IMPORTANCE TO ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE AREA OR HOPING FOR A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TAPER OFF THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING IN SHOWERS, WITH MOSTLY OBSCURED HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT THIS
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, WITH THE
WARM FRONT, EXPECT PRIMARY MVFR AND IFR TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH TOTAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATION. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TODAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET AT 18 SECONDS THIS EVENING.
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE NEXT
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
-BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

CC/CC/CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 191736
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
936 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...BEHIND A FRONT, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
WITH DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE
MAINLY LIGHT AND EXPECT SOME SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR 4500 FT AND HIGHER. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE MOUNTAIN PASSES TODAY. THEN MODELS ARE ON
TRACK WITH AN EXTREMELY WET WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE
COAST SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

THE GFS AND SREF ARE SHOWING HIGH PRECIPITABLE  WATER VALUES OF
1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES MOVING INTO THE COAST WITH STRONG ONSHORE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE COAST
AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WITH AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
EXPECTED. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR
WEST SIDE VALLEYS.

SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FROM 4500 TO 5500 FT TONIGHT TO
7000 TO 9000 FT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE CONCERN WITH
SNOW LEVELS IS WHETHER SNOW LEVELS MAY REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR EAST SIDE LOCATIONS. CURRENT
MODELS SHOW SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE VALLEY FLOORS WITH
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4500 TO 5000 FT SEEING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND MAY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
RIVER FLOODING, MAINLY ALONG THE COQUILLE, AND FOR SMALL STREAM
RIVER FLOODING.

ALSO WITH THE FRONT, EXPECT SOME GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY,
MAINLY FOR COASTAL AREAS, THE MOUNTAINS, AND INTO THE EAST SIDE AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA.

RAINFALL CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY BUT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUILDS INTO THE AREA, EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DECREASE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TAPER OFF THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING IN SHOWERS, WITH MOSTLY OBSCURED HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT THIS
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, WITH THE
WARM FRONT, EXPECT PRIMARY MVFR AND IFR TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH TOTAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATION. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 515 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014... ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND NEAR COAST AND SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. HEAVY WEST
SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET AT 18 SECONDS FRIDAY
EVENING. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THIS WARM FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO AS SEAS SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
MODERATE TO STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND SOME MOUNTAIN AND EAST SIDE SNOWFALL AS SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4000 FEET THIS MORNING.

MODERATE SNOWFALL IS BEING OBSERVED ON WEBCAMS AT DIAMOND LAKE...AND
ALONG HIGHWAY 97 AT CHEMULT THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS
THE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW OVER THE CASCADES AND HIGHWAY 97 SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME BEFORE SUNRISE. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
CASCADES AT TIMES TODAY WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER COOS AND WESTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS MORNING AS SOME STRIKES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE COAST THIS MORNING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

ATTENTION TURNS TO AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT THAT WILL BRING A
RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE RETREATS TO THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 4000
AND 5000 FEET WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...SO MOUNTAIN PASSES
SHOULD GET A QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SNOW LEVELS BUMP ABOVE 5000 FEET MID TO LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...TRAVELERS WANTING TO AVOID SNOWFALL
OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES SHOULD WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON TO TRAVEL.
HOWEVER...ALL TRAVELERS IN THE AREA WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ON SATURDAY AT LEAST. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY AT THE COAST AND EAST SIDE SATURDAY. 850 MB
WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND MODELS SUGGEST A 7-9 MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM OTH- ACV...WHICH MAKES GUSTS TO 50 MPH SEEM
VERY REASONABLE. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WANT TO BUMP THIS UP EVEN
FURTHER IF DATA SUPPORTS THIS. WE INCREASED WINDS NEAR SUMMER LAKE
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS 50-70KT 700MB WINDS TRAVERSE THAT AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...HAVE INCREASED SHASTA VALLEY WINDS SIMPLY DUE TO
THE STRONG SOUTH TO NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT EVEN THOUGH THE 700MB
WINDS ARE FROM THE WEST.

THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK COVERS THE HEAVY RAIN SITUATION WELL AT THIS
TIME. LATEST RIVER MODELS SUGGEST THE COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE
REACHES ACTION STAGE...AND A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF FUTURE
RUNS INCREASE THIS FURTHER.  THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND
BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WHICH
BASICALLY IS 5 INCHES FOR THE OROGRAPHIC-FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE
COAST RANGE AND 5 INCHES FOR THE CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.
INTERESTINGLY...INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT...AN INDICATOR OF HOW
SIGNIFICANT A RAINMAKER THIS SYSTEM WILL BE...TRENDS HAVE DECREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS...BUT STILL ARE
IMPRESSIVE WITH 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE MOST
RECENT RUN.  SNOW LEVELS WILL PEAK AT 9000 FEET LATE SUNDAY...AND
MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL FALL AS
RAIN...ENTERING THE RIVERS AND STREAMS.  THIS AGAIN SUGGESTS THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WITH THIS STORM.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD SYSTEM DROPS
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND EXHIBITS QUITE DIFFERENT BEHAVIOR
THAN THE LAST SYSTEM...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING SHARPLY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AS LOW AS 3000 FEET. THIS OF COURSE IS OF
IMPORTANCE TO ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE AREA OR HOPING FOR A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TAPER OFF THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING IN SHOWERS, WITH MOSTLY OBSCURED HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT THIS
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, WITH THE
WARM FRONT, EXPECT PRIMARY MVFR AND IFR TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH TOTAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATION. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TODAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET AT 18 SECONDS THIS EVENING.
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE NEXT
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
-BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

CC/CC/CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 191736
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
936 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...BEHIND A FRONT, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
WITH DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE
MAINLY LIGHT AND EXPECT SOME SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR 4500 FT AND HIGHER. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE MOUNTAIN PASSES TODAY. THEN MODELS ARE ON
TRACK WITH AN EXTREMELY WET WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE
COAST SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

THE GFS AND SREF ARE SHOWING HIGH PRECIPITABLE  WATER VALUES OF
1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES MOVING INTO THE COAST WITH STRONG ONSHORE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE COAST
AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WITH AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
EXPECTED. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR
WEST SIDE VALLEYS.

SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FROM 4500 TO 5500 FT TONIGHT TO
7000 TO 9000 FT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE CONCERN WITH
SNOW LEVELS IS WHETHER SNOW LEVELS MAY REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR EAST SIDE LOCATIONS. CURRENT
MODELS SHOW SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE VALLEY FLOORS WITH
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4500 TO 5000 FT SEEING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND MAY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
RIVER FLOODING, MAINLY ALONG THE COQUILLE, AND FOR SMALL STREAM
RIVER FLOODING.

ALSO WITH THE FRONT, EXPECT SOME GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY,
MAINLY FOR COASTAL AREAS, THE MOUNTAINS, AND INTO THE EAST SIDE AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA.

RAINFALL CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY BUT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUILDS INTO THE AREA, EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DECREASE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TAPER OFF THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING IN SHOWERS, WITH MOSTLY OBSCURED HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT THIS
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, WITH THE
WARM FRONT, EXPECT PRIMARY MVFR AND IFR TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH TOTAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATION. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 515 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014... ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND NEAR COAST AND SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. HEAVY WEST
SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET AT 18 SECONDS FRIDAY
EVENING. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THIS WARM FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO AS SEAS SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
MODERATE TO STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND SOME MOUNTAIN AND EAST SIDE SNOWFALL AS SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4000 FEET THIS MORNING.

MODERATE SNOWFALL IS BEING OBSERVED ON WEBCAMS AT DIAMOND LAKE...AND
ALONG HIGHWAY 97 AT CHEMULT THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS
THE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW OVER THE CASCADES AND HIGHWAY 97 SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME BEFORE SUNRISE. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
CASCADES AT TIMES TODAY WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER COOS AND WESTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS MORNING AS SOME STRIKES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE COAST THIS MORNING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

ATTENTION TURNS TO AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT THAT WILL BRING A
RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE RETREATS TO THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 4000
AND 5000 FEET WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...SO MOUNTAIN PASSES
SHOULD GET A QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SNOW LEVELS BUMP ABOVE 5000 FEET MID TO LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...TRAVELERS WANTING TO AVOID SNOWFALL
OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES SHOULD WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON TO TRAVEL.
HOWEVER...ALL TRAVELERS IN THE AREA WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ON SATURDAY AT LEAST. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY AT THE COAST AND EAST SIDE SATURDAY. 850 MB
WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND MODELS SUGGEST A 7-9 MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM OTH- ACV...WHICH MAKES GUSTS TO 50 MPH SEEM
VERY REASONABLE. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WANT TO BUMP THIS UP EVEN
FURTHER IF DATA SUPPORTS THIS. WE INCREASED WINDS NEAR SUMMER LAKE
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS 50-70KT 700MB WINDS TRAVERSE THAT AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...HAVE INCREASED SHASTA VALLEY WINDS SIMPLY DUE TO
THE STRONG SOUTH TO NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT EVEN THOUGH THE 700MB
WINDS ARE FROM THE WEST.

THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK COVERS THE HEAVY RAIN SITUATION WELL AT THIS
TIME. LATEST RIVER MODELS SUGGEST THE COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE
REACHES ACTION STAGE...AND A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF FUTURE
RUNS INCREASE THIS FURTHER.  THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND
BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WHICH
BASICALLY IS 5 INCHES FOR THE OROGRAPHIC-FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE
COAST RANGE AND 5 INCHES FOR THE CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.
INTERESTINGLY...INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT...AN INDICATOR OF HOW
SIGNIFICANT A RAINMAKER THIS SYSTEM WILL BE...TRENDS HAVE DECREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS...BUT STILL ARE
IMPRESSIVE WITH 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE MOST
RECENT RUN.  SNOW LEVELS WILL PEAK AT 9000 FEET LATE SUNDAY...AND
MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL FALL AS
RAIN...ENTERING THE RIVERS AND STREAMS.  THIS AGAIN SUGGESTS THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WITH THIS STORM.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD SYSTEM DROPS
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND EXHIBITS QUITE DIFFERENT BEHAVIOR
THAN THE LAST SYSTEM...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING SHARPLY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AS LOW AS 3000 FEET. THIS OF COURSE IS OF
IMPORTANCE TO ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE AREA OR HOPING FOR A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TAPER OFF THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING IN SHOWERS, WITH MOSTLY OBSCURED HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT THIS
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, WITH THE
WARM FRONT, EXPECT PRIMARY MVFR AND IFR TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH TOTAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATION. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TODAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET AT 18 SECONDS THIS EVENING.
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE NEXT
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
-BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

CC/CC/CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 191736
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
936 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...BEHIND A FRONT, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
WITH DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE
MAINLY LIGHT AND EXPECT SOME SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR 4500 FT AND HIGHER. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE MOUNTAIN PASSES TODAY. THEN MODELS ARE ON
TRACK WITH AN EXTREMELY WET WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE
COAST SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

THE GFS AND SREF ARE SHOWING HIGH PRECIPITABLE  WATER VALUES OF
1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES MOVING INTO THE COAST WITH STRONG ONSHORE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE COAST
AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WITH AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
EXPECTED. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR
WEST SIDE VALLEYS.

SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FROM 4500 TO 5500 FT TONIGHT TO
7000 TO 9000 FT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE CONCERN WITH
SNOW LEVELS IS WHETHER SNOW LEVELS MAY REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR EAST SIDE LOCATIONS. CURRENT
MODELS SHOW SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE VALLEY FLOORS WITH
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4500 TO 5000 FT SEEING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND MAY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
RIVER FLOODING, MAINLY ALONG THE COQUILLE, AND FOR SMALL STREAM
RIVER FLOODING.

ALSO WITH THE FRONT, EXPECT SOME GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY,
MAINLY FOR COASTAL AREAS, THE MOUNTAINS, AND INTO THE EAST SIDE AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA.

RAINFALL CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY BUT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUILDS INTO THE AREA, EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DECREASE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TAPER OFF THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING IN SHOWERS, WITH MOSTLY OBSCURED HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT THIS
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, WITH THE
WARM FRONT, EXPECT PRIMARY MVFR AND IFR TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH TOTAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATION. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 515 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014... ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND NEAR COAST AND SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. HEAVY WEST
SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET AT 18 SECONDS FRIDAY
EVENING. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THIS WARM FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO AS SEAS SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
MODERATE TO STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND SOME MOUNTAIN AND EAST SIDE SNOWFALL AS SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4000 FEET THIS MORNING.

MODERATE SNOWFALL IS BEING OBSERVED ON WEBCAMS AT DIAMOND LAKE...AND
ALONG HIGHWAY 97 AT CHEMULT THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS
THE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW OVER THE CASCADES AND HIGHWAY 97 SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME BEFORE SUNRISE. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
CASCADES AT TIMES TODAY WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER COOS AND WESTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS MORNING AS SOME STRIKES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE COAST THIS MORNING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

ATTENTION TURNS TO AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT THAT WILL BRING A
RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE RETREATS TO THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 4000
AND 5000 FEET WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...SO MOUNTAIN PASSES
SHOULD GET A QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SNOW LEVELS BUMP ABOVE 5000 FEET MID TO LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...TRAVELERS WANTING TO AVOID SNOWFALL
OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES SHOULD WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON TO TRAVEL.
HOWEVER...ALL TRAVELERS IN THE AREA WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ON SATURDAY AT LEAST. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY AT THE COAST AND EAST SIDE SATURDAY. 850 MB
WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND MODELS SUGGEST A 7-9 MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM OTH- ACV...WHICH MAKES GUSTS TO 50 MPH SEEM
VERY REASONABLE. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WANT TO BUMP THIS UP EVEN
FURTHER IF DATA SUPPORTS THIS. WE INCREASED WINDS NEAR SUMMER LAKE
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS 50-70KT 700MB WINDS TRAVERSE THAT AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...HAVE INCREASED SHASTA VALLEY WINDS SIMPLY DUE TO
THE STRONG SOUTH TO NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT EVEN THOUGH THE 700MB
WINDS ARE FROM THE WEST.

THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK COVERS THE HEAVY RAIN SITUATION WELL AT THIS
TIME. LATEST RIVER MODELS SUGGEST THE COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE
REACHES ACTION STAGE...AND A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF FUTURE
RUNS INCREASE THIS FURTHER.  THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND
BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WHICH
BASICALLY IS 5 INCHES FOR THE OROGRAPHIC-FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE
COAST RANGE AND 5 INCHES FOR THE CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.
INTERESTINGLY...INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT...AN INDICATOR OF HOW
SIGNIFICANT A RAINMAKER THIS SYSTEM WILL BE...TRENDS HAVE DECREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS...BUT STILL ARE
IMPRESSIVE WITH 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE MOST
RECENT RUN.  SNOW LEVELS WILL PEAK AT 9000 FEET LATE SUNDAY...AND
MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL FALL AS
RAIN...ENTERING THE RIVERS AND STREAMS.  THIS AGAIN SUGGESTS THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WITH THIS STORM.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD SYSTEM DROPS
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND EXHIBITS QUITE DIFFERENT BEHAVIOR
THAN THE LAST SYSTEM...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING SHARPLY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AS LOW AS 3000 FEET. THIS OF COURSE IS OF
IMPORTANCE TO ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE AREA OR HOPING FOR A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TAPER OFF THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING IN SHOWERS, WITH MOSTLY OBSCURED HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT THIS
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, WITH THE
WARM FRONT, EXPECT PRIMARY MVFR AND IFR TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH TOTAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATION. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TODAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET AT 18 SECONDS THIS EVENING.
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE NEXT
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
-BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

CC/CC/CC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 191659
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
959 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...WET WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE AREA TODAY AS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FORECAST ALREADY
COVERS THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WELL...SO NO UPDATES
THIS MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN SATURDAY WILL BE EVEN WETTER
WITH RAPIDLY CLIMBING SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SNOWFALL ON THE SKI AREAS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL TURN TO RAIN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AS RAIN SUNDAY. LATEST INFORMATION
INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS WELL-ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THEREFORE WE ARE GOING TO GO WITH WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL POPS AND QPF
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE ARE ALSO CONSIDERING AN
ADVISORY FOR THE MTNS OF BAKER COUNTY AND ALSO THE WEST-CENTRAL
AND BOISE MTNS. IT APPEARS THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL FALL BEFORE
THE TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS. DETAILS WILL BE WORKED OUT FOR THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF RAIN TODAY...WITH SNOW ABOVE 4500 FT MSL...
WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS EVENING. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS TODAY...CONTINUING TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING KMYL BUT IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR
ELSEWHERE. SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTHWEST 5-15 KTS. WINDS
ALOFT...WEST 15-25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE IN
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RAISE
SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 8000 FT IN SE OREGON AND 6000 FT IN CENTRAL
IDAHO BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO 20-30 KTS FOR AREAS ABOVE 4000 FT MSL
AND 30-40 KTS ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS ABOVE 6000 FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS
ARRIVES TODAY...BRINGING STEADY RAINS TO THE LOWER VALLEYS AND
SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO SE
OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO /INCLUDING THE TREASURE VALLEY/
ALTHOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT. THE STEADIER PRECIP WILL
MOVE INTO SE OREGON IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN INTO MOST OF
SW IDAHO BY MID-MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL ON TRACK...WITH
GENERALLY 0.10-0.25 INCHES RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL AVERAGE 3500 FEET THIS MORNING...THEN RISE TO
4000-4500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET...WITH UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FEET. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL
DEPART THIS EVENING FOR DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SECOND AND MUCH WETTER SYSTEM /WHICH WILL BRING COPIOUS
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/ WILL SPREAD
WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK INTO SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW IDAHO ON
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL AVERAGE 3000 FEET IN THE MORNING AND
RISE TO AROUND 4000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SE OREGON /INCLUDING BURNS
AND BAKER CITY/ BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...A MOIST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
RISING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT BRINGS ENHANCED
PRECIP AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY SUNDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
TO NEARLY 9000 FT IN SE OREGON AND AROUND 6000 FT IN CENTRAL
IDAHO. IN THE VALLEYS...A STEADY RAIN DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COULD BRING NEARLY A HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION...WHILE THE
HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD SEE UP TO 24
INCHES OF SNOW. MEANWHILE...IN LOWER MOUNTAIN AREAS...SNOW WILL
TURN TO RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MELT PREVIOUS
SNOWFALL. ON TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OFF OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PUSHING MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH AND DRYING THINGS OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MID DAY. ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY INLAND
AND FLATTENING OUT THAT RIDGE AND BRINGING THE AREA ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SNOW. AT THIS POINT...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER
AND WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO UNCERTAINTY LIES IN SNOW LEVELS AND
TEMPERATURES. THAT TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY LEAVING THE AREA
IN A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....EP




000
FXUS66 KMFR 191512
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
712 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND SOME MOUNTAIN AND EAST SIDE SNOWFALL AS SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4000 FEET THIS MORNING.

MODERATE SNOWFALL IS BEING OBSERVED ON WEBCAMS AT DIAMOND LAKE...AND
ALONG HIGHWAY 97 AT CHEMULT THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS
THE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW OVER THE CASCADES AND HIGHWAY 97 SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME BEFORE SUNRISE. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
CASCADES AT TIMES TODAY WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER COOS AND WESTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS MORNING AS SOME STRIKES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE COAST THIS MORNING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

ATTENTION TURNS TO AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT THAT WILL BRING A
RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE RETREATS TO THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 4000
AND 5000 FEET WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...SO MOUNTAIN PASSES
SHOULD GET A QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SNOW LEVELS BUMP ABOVE 5000 FEET MID TO LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...TRAVELERS WANTING TO AVOID SNOWFALL
OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES SHOULD WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON TO TRAVEL.
HOWEVER...ALL TRAVELERS IN THE AREA WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ON SATURDAY AT LEAST. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY AT THE COAST AND EAST SIDE SATURDAY. 850 MB
WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND MODELS SUGGEST A 7-9 MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM OTH- ACV...WHICH MAKES GUSTS TO 50 MPH SEEM
VERY REASONABLE. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WANT TO BUMP THIS UP EVEN
FURTHER IF DATA SUPPORTS THIS. WE INCREASED WINDS NEAR SUMMER LAKE
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS 50-70KT 700MB WINDS TRAVERSE THAT AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...HAVE INCREASED SHASTA VALLEY WINDS SIMPLY DUE TO
THE STRONG SOUTH TO NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT EVEN THOUGH THE 700MB
WINDS ARE FROM THE WEST.

THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK COVERS THE HEAVY RAIN SITUATION WELL AT THIS
TIME. LATEST RIVER MODELS SUGGEST THE COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE
REACHES ACTION STAGE...AND A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF FUTURE
RUNS INCREASE THIS FURTHER.  THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND
BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WHICH
BASICALLY IS 5 INCHES FOR THE OROGRAPHIC-FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE
COAST RANGE AND 5 INCHES FOR THE CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.
INTERESTINGLY...INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT...AN INDICATOR OF HOW
SIGNIFICANT A RAINMAKER THIS SYSTEM WILL BE...TRENDS HAVE DECREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS...BUT STILL ARE
IMPRESSIVE WITH 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE MOST
RECENT RUN.  SNOW LEVELS WILL PEAK AT 9000 FEET LATE SUNDAY...AND
MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL FALL AS
RAIN...ENTERING THE RIVERS AND STREAMS.  THIS AGAIN SUGGESTS THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WITH THIS STORM.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD SYSTEM DROPS
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND EXHIBITS QUITE DIFFERENT BEHAVIOR
THAN THE LAST SYSTEM...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING SHARPLY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AS LOW AS 3000 FEET. THIS OF COURSE IS OF
IMPORTANCE TO ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE AREA OR HOPING FOR A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TAPER OFF THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING IN SHOWERS, WITH MOSTLY OBSCURED HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT THIS
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, WITH THE
WARM FRONT, EXPECT PRIMARY MVFR AND IFR TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH TOTAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATION. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 515 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY ALONG AND NEAR COAST AND SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET
AT 18 SECONDS FRIDAY EVENING. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN
HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS
ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THIS WARM
FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS SEAS
SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT CHRISTMAS EVE INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022-615-618.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
  PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
  MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
  PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

BTL/NSK



000
FXUS66 KPQR 191225
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
424 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WHICH WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES. THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TODAY OVER THE COASTAL AREAS FOR A THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS. MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME IS STILL IN
QUESTION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL TAKE AIM
AT SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODEL
OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM....TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NWS KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR
AS OF 10Z SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
CASCADES. SIX-HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 10Z WERE NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY A QUARTER TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH IN MOST
AREAS. RADAR AND INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SHOWERS WITHIN THE
POST-FRONTAL COLDER AIR MASS ALREADY MOVING ONSHORE AND INTO THE
OREGON COAST RANGE AND SW WA WILLAPA HILLS. LIGHTNING DETECTION JUST
BEFORE 10Z INDICATED A POSITIVE STRIKE ALONG THE CENTRAL WA COAST.
JUST BEFORE 11Z A COUPLE STRIKES WERE NOTED NEAR FLORENCE.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE COLD UPPER TROUGH. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO BELOW THE CASCADES PASSES TODAY...BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE QPF HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL
GIVE SOME SNOW TO THE CASCADES BUT UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. NAM MODEL
SOUNDING FOR KAST WOULD INDICATE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO BE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. NAM SOUNDING VALID 17Z TODAY SHOWS
AN LI OF 0 WITH A PRETTY HEFTY SWEAT INDEX OF 335...WELL ABOVE THE
GENERALIZED 250 SWEAT INDEX BENCHMARK USED FOR ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
CONFIDENCE. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THEN DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT STARTS TO STABILIZE.

THE BIGGER STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT OVER THE
WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE PAST RUNS WITH FAIRLY DECENT CONTINUITY AMONGST THE
INDIVIDUAL MODELS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP AND THE DURATION. GFS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN
DIRECTING THE BAROCLINIC BAND OVER EXTREME SW WA AND NRN OREGON. THE
NAM AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...BUT THE ECMWF SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA 12Z SUN
THROUGH 00Z MON. THE 00Z WRF-GFS 48-HR QPF TOTALS VALID 12Z SAT
THROUGH 12Z MON SHOW AT LEAST 3-6 INCHES FOR THE OREGON CASCADES AND
2-4 INCHES FOR THE OREGON COAST RANGE. IT HAS LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE S
WA CASCADES AND WILLAPA HILLS. GFS AND NAM HAVE STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE 290K SURFACE STARTING 12Z SAT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUN. 850 MB WLY FLOW OF 40-50 KT INTO THE OREGON COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES SAT THROUGH SUN WILL RESULT IN A HIGHLY EFFECIENT OROGRAPHIC
RAINFALL COMPONENT. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
TABLE...SPECIFICALLY THE ENSEMBLE MODEL CLIMATE QPF (OR M CLIMATE
QPF)...IT INDICATES A 99TH PERCENTILE OR MAX QPF EVENT FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OREGON CASCADES SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN MORNING.
THIS MEANS THAT THE GEFS ENSEMBLE IS FORECASTING AN INORDINATE AMOUNT
OF PRECIP COMPARED TO THE 1985-2012 WINTER ENSEMBLE MODEL CLIMATE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES PER SIX HOURS IN THE
CASCADES FOR A 12-18 PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...THERE IS NO LOW-ELEVATION
SNOW AND MINIMAL SNOW AT PASS LEVELS. HOWEVER...LATEST HYDRO GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW RIVERS WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE BY SUN OR MON. REFER TO
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS BUT IT
WILL BE RATHER BLUSTERY. THE NAM INDICATES A KAST-KOTH GRADIENT OF
AROUND 10 MB BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND IN THE EVENING. THE BENCHMARK
GRADIENT IS AROUND 12 MB. EXPECT 45-55 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE BEACHES
AND HEADLANDS SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

IN ADDITION...THOSE PLANNING TO BE ALONG THE COAST AT AREA BEACHES
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. RAPIDLY BUILDING
SEAS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS HIGH SURF ALONG THE
BEACHES AS EARLY AS TODAY. LONG PERIOD SWELLS MAY REACH SHORE AND
SURPRISE INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE UNAWARE. ANYONE ON THE BEACHES SHOULD
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION AND AVOID THE SURF ZONE AS LARGE WAVES MAY
WASH OVER BEACHES AND JETTIES WITH LITTLE WARNING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
AROUND HIGH TIDES. THIS THREAT COULD BE ENHANCED BY HIGH FLOWS ON
RIVERS IN RESPONSE TO THE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.  WEISHAAR

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS AGREE THE WEEKEND
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES MON...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE A DIRTY RIDGE
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HOLD ON TO SOME QPF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE FORCAST AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE NRN ZONES MON NIGHT AND TUE
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN BRING A COLDER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WED. THE ECMWF DROPS 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES TO NEAR 530 DM 00Z THU WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF.
THUS...THE CASCADES AND SKI AREAS MAY FINALLY GET A DECENT SHOT OF
SNOW. COLDER NORTH FLOW WILL FOLLOW AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL
WELL BELOW NORMAL AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT LATE WEEK. WEISHAAR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SITUATION SETTING UP FOR A MEMORABLE HYDROLOGIC EVENT
MAINLY FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. STRONG AND
DEEP MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE PACNW COAST COME
SATURDAY MORNING. A VERY LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE IS STRETCHING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC WITH ORIGINS WEST TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THIS MOIST AIR
MASS WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY A 150 TO 170 KT JET AND WESTERLY 25 TO
50 KT LOWER LEVEL WINDS. AS SUCH...THIS CONTINUES TO GIVE THE
APPEARANCE OF A CLASSIC HIGH PRECIPITATION ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT
WHERE THE DEEP MOIST FLOW WILL SPEND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME
ON A NEARLY PERPENDICULAR COURSE AGAINST THE COAST RANGE WITH THE
CASCADES TAKING A BIT HIGHER OF THE IMPACT. AS OF THE MORNING MODEL
RUNS AND RECENT NWRFC UPDATES...IT APPEARS MULTIPLE COAST RANGE
RIVERS HAVE A MODERATE POTENTIAL OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE.
ADDITIONALLY...THIS EVENT HAS SUFFICIENT DEPTH TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINS TO THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE RIVERS
WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR NOTABLE FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE THE
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (PDXESFPQR) PRODUCT HIGHLIGHTING CONCERNS. KEEP
IN MIND THAT DETAILS WILL ALWAYS BE IN FLUX UNDER THESE SCENARIOS AS
SUBTLE NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS COLD MAKE DRAMATIC DIFFERENCES IN WHICH
BASINS RECEIVE EXTENDED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. PLEASE
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECASTS AND IMPACTS AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT. RIVER FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR (ALL LOWER CASE)

/JBONK

&&
&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND
VIS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER SHOWERY CONDITIONS. DUE TO AN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER THE WATERS THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF VCTS THROUGH AROUND
18Z TODAY FOR THE COASTAL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE A
MIX OF IFR TO VFR TONIGHT AND SAT AS A MUCH STRONGER FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST AROUND
02Z...AND INLAND AFTER 05Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE TERMINAL AFTER 05Z. /64

&&

.MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
WAS EXTENDED TO LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED GUSTS OF 25
KT OVER THE WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 12 FT AND
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS WE CAN EXPECT THE SEAS TO CLIMB ABOVE
20 FT THIS EVENING WITH SOLID GALE GUSTS TO 45 KT EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS SUCH...ISSUED A GALE WATCH STARTING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WINDS RELAXING TO AROUND 25 KT
OVERNIGHT. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS INTENSE. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PST SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 191213
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
413 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND SOME MOUNTAIN AND EAST SIDE SNOWFALL AS SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4000 FEET THIS MORNING.

MODERATE SNOWFALL IS BEING OBSERVED ON WEBCAMS AT DIAMOND LAKE...AND
ALONG HIGHWAY 97 AT CHEMULT THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS
THE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW OVER THE CASCADES AND HIGHWAY 97 SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME BEFORE SUNRISE. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
CASCADES AT TIMES TODAY WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER COOS AND WESTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS MORNING AS SOME STRIKES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE COAST THIS MORNING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

ATTENTION TURNS TO AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT THAT WILL BRING A
RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE RETREATS TO THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 4000
AND 5000 FEET WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...SO MOUNTAIN PASSES
SHOULD GET A QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SNOW LEVELS BUMP ABOVE 5000 FEET MID TO LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...TRAVELERS WANTING TO AVOID SNOWFALL
OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES SHOULD WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON TO TRAVEL.
HOWEVER...ALL TRAVELERS IN THE AREA WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ON SATURDAY AT LEAST. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY AT THE COAST AND EAST SIDE SATURDAY. 850 MB
WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND MODELS SUGGEST A 7-9 MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM OTH- ACV...WHICH MAKES GUSTS TO 50 MPH SEEM
VERY REASONABLE. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WANT TO BUMP THIS UP EVEN
FURTHER IF DATA SUPPORTS THIS. WE INCREASED WINDS NEAR SUMMER LAKE
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS 50-70KT 700MB WINDS TRAVERSE THAT AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...HAVE INCREASED SHASTA VALLEY WINDS SIMPLY DUE TO
THE STRONG SOUTH TO NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT EVEN THOUGH THE 700MB
WINDS ARE FROM THE WEST.

THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK COVERS THE HEAVY RAIN SITUATION WELL AT THIS
TIME. LATEST RIVER MODELS SUGGEST THE COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE
REACHES ACTION STAGE...AND A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF FUTURE
RUNS INCREASE THIS FURTHER.  THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND
BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WHICH
BASICALLY IS 5 INCHES FOR THE OROGRAPHIC-FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE
COAST RANGE AND 5 INCHES FOR THE CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.
INTERESTINGLY...INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT...AN INDICATOR OF HOW
SIGNIFICANT A RAINMAKER THIS SYSTEM WILL BE...TRENDS HAVE DECREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS...BUT STILL ARE
IMPRESSIVE WITH 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE MOST
RECENT RUN.  SNOW LEVELS WILL PEAK AT 9000 FEET LATE SUNDAY...AND
MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL FALL AS
RAIN...ENTERING THE RIVERS AND STREAMS.  THIS AGAIN SUGGESTS THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WITH THIS STORM.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD SYSTEM DROPS
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND EXHIBITS QUTIE DIFFERENT BEHAVIOR THAN
THE LAST SYSTEM...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING SHARPLY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AS LOW AS 3000 FEET. THIS OF COURSE IS OF
IMPORTANCE TO ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE AREA OR HOPING FOR A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.


&&

.AVIATION...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. IT IS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES, AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION, AND GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MAINLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT EAST OF
THE CASCADES. PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD DROP BY ABOUT 2000
FEET THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TO DIMINISHING SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WITH
VFR CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO MVFR UNDER SHOWERS. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SPREADING INLAND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1015 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014...A COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED INLAND THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES ARE DIMINISHING BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY WITH THE WATERS DOMINATED IN THE
MORNING BY A WEST SWELL AT 13 SECONDS THAT WILL COMBINE WITH A
BUILDING LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL AT AROUND 20 SECONDS. THIS LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL BECOME DOMINANT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO A PEAK AROUND 20 FEET AT 18 SECONDS ON FRIDAY EVENING.
THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY THIS WARM FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO AS SEAS SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH A
LINGERING LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL...BUT THE WEST SWELL AT 13 SECONDS
BECOMING DOMINANT.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022-615-618.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

NSK/NSK/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 191213
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
413 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND SOME MOUNTAIN AND EAST SIDE SNOWFALL AS SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4000 FEET THIS MORNING.

MODERATE SNOWFALL IS BEING OBSERVED ON WEBCAMS AT DIAMOND LAKE...AND
ALONG HIGHWAY 97 AT CHEMULT THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS
THE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW OVER THE CASCADES AND HIGHWAY 97 SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME BEFORE SUNRISE. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
CASCADES AT TIMES TODAY WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER COOS AND WESTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS MORNING AS SOME STRIKES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE COAST THIS MORNING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

ATTENTION TURNS TO AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT THAT WILL BRING A
RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE RETREATS TO THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 4000
AND 5000 FEET WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...SO MOUNTAIN PASSES
SHOULD GET A QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SNOW LEVELS BUMP ABOVE 5000 FEET MID TO LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...TRAVELERS WANTING TO AVOID SNOWFALL
OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES SHOULD WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON TO TRAVEL.
HOWEVER...ALL TRAVELERS IN THE AREA WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ON SATURDAY AT LEAST. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY AT THE COAST AND EAST SIDE SATURDAY. 850 MB
WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND MODELS SUGGEST A 7-9 MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM OTH- ACV...WHICH MAKES GUSTS TO 50 MPH SEEM
VERY REASONABLE. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WANT TO BUMP THIS UP EVEN
FURTHER IF DATA SUPPORTS THIS. WE INCREASED WINDS NEAR SUMMER LAKE
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS 50-70KT 700MB WINDS TRAVERSE THAT AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...HAVE INCREASED SHASTA VALLEY WINDS SIMPLY DUE TO
THE STRONG SOUTH TO NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT EVEN THOUGH THE 700MB
WINDS ARE FROM THE WEST.

THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK COVERS THE HEAVY RAIN SITUATION WELL AT THIS
TIME. LATEST RIVER MODELS SUGGEST THE COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE
REACHES ACTION STAGE...AND A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF FUTURE
RUNS INCREASE THIS FURTHER.  THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND
BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WHICH
BASICALLY IS 5 INCHES FOR THE OROGRAPHIC-FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE
COAST RANGE AND 5 INCHES FOR THE CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.
INTERESTINGLY...INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT...AN INDICATOR OF HOW
SIGNIFICANT A RAINMAKER THIS SYSTEM WILL BE...TRENDS HAVE DECREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS...BUT STILL ARE
IMPRESSIVE WITH 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE MOST
RECENT RUN.  SNOW LEVELS WILL PEAK AT 9000 FEET LATE SUNDAY...AND
MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL FALL AS
RAIN...ENTERING THE RIVERS AND STREAMS.  THIS AGAIN SUGGESTS THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WITH THIS STORM.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD SYSTEM DROPS
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND EXHIBITS QUTIE DIFFERENT BEHAVIOR THAN
THE LAST SYSTEM...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING SHARPLY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AS LOW AS 3000 FEET. THIS OF COURSE IS OF
IMPORTANCE TO ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE AREA OR HOPING FOR A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.


&&

.AVIATION...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. IT IS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES, AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION, AND GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MAINLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT EAST OF
THE CASCADES. PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD DROP BY ABOUT 2000
FEET THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TO DIMINISHING SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WITH
VFR CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO MVFR UNDER SHOWERS. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SPREADING INLAND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1015 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014...A COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED INLAND THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES ARE DIMINISHING BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY WITH THE WATERS DOMINATED IN THE
MORNING BY A WEST SWELL AT 13 SECONDS THAT WILL COMBINE WITH A
BUILDING LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL AT AROUND 20 SECONDS. THIS LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL BECOME DOMINANT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO A PEAK AROUND 20 FEET AT 18 SECONDS ON FRIDAY EVENING.
THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY THIS WARM FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO AS SEAS SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH A
LINGERING LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL...BUT THE WEST SWELL AT 13 SECONDS
BECOMING DOMINANT.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022-615-618.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

NSK/NSK/BTL



000
FXUS65 KBOI 191017
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
317 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS
ARRIVES TODAY...BRINGING STEADY RAINS TO THE LOWER VALLEYS AND
SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO SE
OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO /INCLUDING THE TREASURE VALLEY/
ALTOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT. THE STEADIER PRECIP WILL
MOVE INTO SE OREGON IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN INTO MOST OF
SW IDAHO BY MID-MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL ON TRACK...WITH
GENERALLY 0.10-0.25 INCHES RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL AVERAGE 3500 FEET THIS MORNING...THEN RISE TO
4000-4500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET...WITH UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FEET. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL
DEPART THIS EVENING FOR DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SECOND AND MUCH WETTER SYSTEM /WHICH WILL BRING COPIOUS
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/ WILL SPREAD
WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK INTO SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW IDAHO ON
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL AVERAGE 3000 FEET IN THE MORNING AND
RISE TO AROUND 4000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SE OREGON /INCLUDING BURNS
AND BAKER CITY/ BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...A MOIST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
RISING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT BRINGS ENHANCED
PRECIP AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY SUNDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
TO NEARLY 9000 FT IN SE OREGON AND AROUND 6000 FT IN CENTRAL
IDAHO. IN THE VALLEYS...A STEADY RAIN DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COULD BRING NEARLY A HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION...WHILE THE
HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD SEE UP TO 24
INCHES OF SNOW. MEANWHILE...IN LOWER MOUNTAIN AREAS...SNOW WILL
TURN TO RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MELT PREVIOUS
SNOWFALL. ON TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OFF OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PUSHING MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH AND DRYING THINGS OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MID DAY. ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY INLAND
AND FLATTENING OUT THAT RIDGE AND BRINGING THE AREA ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SNOW. AT THIS POINT...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER
AND WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO UNCERTAINTY LIES IN SNOW LEVELS AND
TEMPERATURES. THAT TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY LEAVING THE AREA
IN A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN VALLEYS...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
3000 TO 4000 FT SO MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT TO AROUND 10K FT MSL...WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 15-25
KTS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RAISE SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 8000 FT IN SE OREGON AND 6000 FT IN CENTRAL IDAHO
BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 191017
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
317 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS
ARRIVES TODAY...BRINGING STEADY RAINS TO THE LOWER VALLEYS AND
SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO SE
OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO /INCLUDING THE TREASURE VALLEY/
ALTOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT. THE STEADIER PRECIP WILL
MOVE INTO SE OREGON IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN INTO MOST OF
SW IDAHO BY MID-MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL ON TRACK...WITH
GENERALLY 0.10-0.25 INCHES RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL AVERAGE 3500 FEET THIS MORNING...THEN RISE TO
4000-4500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET...WITH UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FEET. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL
DEPART THIS EVENING FOR DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SECOND AND MUCH WETTER SYSTEM /WHICH WILL BRING COPIOUS
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/ WILL SPREAD
WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK INTO SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW IDAHO ON
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL AVERAGE 3000 FEET IN THE MORNING AND
RISE TO AROUND 4000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SE OREGON /INCLUDING BURNS
AND BAKER CITY/ BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...A MOIST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
RISING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT BRINGS ENHANCED
PRECIP AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY SUNDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
TO NEARLY 9000 FT IN SE OREGON AND AROUND 6000 FT IN CENTRAL
IDAHO. IN THE VALLEYS...A STEADY RAIN DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COULD BRING NEARLY A HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION...WHILE THE
HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD SEE UP TO 24
INCHES OF SNOW. MEANWHILE...IN LOWER MOUNTAIN AREAS...SNOW WILL
TURN TO RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MELT PREVIOUS
SNOWFALL. ON TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OFF OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PUSHING MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH AND DRYING THINGS OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MID DAY. ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY INLAND
AND FLATTENING OUT THAT RIDGE AND BRINGING THE AREA ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SNOW. AT THIS POINT...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER
AND WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO UNCERTAINTY LIES IN SNOW LEVELS AND
TEMPERATURES. THAT TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY LEAVING THE AREA
IN A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN VALLEYS...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
3000 TO 4000 FT SO MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT TO AROUND 10K FT MSL...WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 15-25
KTS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RAISE SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 8000 FT IN SE OREGON AND 6000 FT IN CENTRAL IDAHO
BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 191017
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
317 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS
ARRIVES TODAY...BRINGING STEADY RAINS TO THE LOWER VALLEYS AND
SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO SE
OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO /INCLUDING THE TREASURE VALLEY/
ALTOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT. THE STEADIER PRECIP WILL
MOVE INTO SE OREGON IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN INTO MOST OF
SW IDAHO BY MID-MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL ON TRACK...WITH
GENERALLY 0.10-0.25 INCHES RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL AVERAGE 3500 FEET THIS MORNING...THEN RISE TO
4000-4500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET...WITH UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FEET. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL
DEPART THIS EVENING FOR DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SECOND AND MUCH WETTER SYSTEM /WHICH WILL BRING COPIOUS
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/ WILL SPREAD
WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK INTO SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW IDAHO ON
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL AVERAGE 3000 FEET IN THE MORNING AND
RISE TO AROUND 4000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SE OREGON /INCLUDING BURNS
AND BAKER CITY/ BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...A MOIST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
RISING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT BRINGS ENHANCED
PRECIP AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY SUNDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
TO NEARLY 9000 FT IN SE OREGON AND AROUND 6000 FT IN CENTRAL
IDAHO. IN THE VALLEYS...A STEADY RAIN DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COULD BRING NEARLY A HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION...WHILE THE
HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD SEE UP TO 24
INCHES OF SNOW. MEANWHILE...IN LOWER MOUNTAIN AREAS...SNOW WILL
TURN TO RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MELT PREVIOUS
SNOWFALL. ON TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OFF OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PUSHING MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH AND DRYING THINGS OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MID DAY. ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY INLAND
AND FLATTENING OUT THAT RIDGE AND BRINGING THE AREA ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SNOW. AT THIS POINT...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER
AND WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO UNCERTAINTY LIES IN SNOW LEVELS AND
TEMPERATURES. THAT TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY LEAVING THE AREA
IN A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN VALLEYS...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
3000 TO 4000 FT SO MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT TO AROUND 10K FT MSL...WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 15-25
KTS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RAISE SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 8000 FT IN SE OREGON AND 6000 FT IN CENTRAL IDAHO
BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 191017
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
317 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS
ARRIVES TODAY...BRINGING STEADY RAINS TO THE LOWER VALLEYS AND
SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO SE
OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO /INCLUDING THE TREASURE VALLEY/
ALTOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT. THE STEADIER PRECIP WILL
MOVE INTO SE OREGON IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN INTO MOST OF
SW IDAHO BY MID-MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL ON TRACK...WITH
GENERALLY 0.10-0.25 INCHES RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL AVERAGE 3500 FEET THIS MORNING...THEN RISE TO
4000-4500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET...WITH UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FEET. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL
DEPART THIS EVENING FOR DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SECOND AND MUCH WETTER SYSTEM /WHICH WILL BRING COPIOUS
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/ WILL SPREAD
WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK INTO SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW IDAHO ON
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL AVERAGE 3000 FEET IN THE MORNING AND
RISE TO AROUND 4000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SE OREGON /INCLUDING BURNS
AND BAKER CITY/ BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...A MOIST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
RISING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT BRINGS ENHANCED
PRECIP AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY SUNDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
TO NEARLY 9000 FT IN SE OREGON AND AROUND 6000 FT IN CENTRAL
IDAHO. IN THE VALLEYS...A STEADY RAIN DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COULD BRING NEARLY A HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION...WHILE THE
HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD SEE UP TO 24
INCHES OF SNOW. MEANWHILE...IN LOWER MOUNTAIN AREAS...SNOW WILL
TURN TO RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MELT PREVIOUS
SNOWFALL. ON TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OFF OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PUSHING MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH AND DRYING THINGS OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MID DAY. ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY INLAND
AND FLATTENING OUT THAT RIDGE AND BRINGING THE AREA ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SNOW. AT THIS POINT...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER
AND WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO UNCERTAINTY LIES IN SNOW LEVELS AND
TEMPERATURES. THAT TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY LEAVING THE AREA
IN A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN VALLEYS...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
3000 TO 4000 FT SO MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT TO AROUND 10K FT MSL...WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 15-25
KTS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RAISE SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 8000 FT IN SE OREGON AND 6000 FT IN CENTRAL IDAHO
BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 191017
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
317 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS
ARRIVES TODAY...BRINGING STEADY RAINS TO THE LOWER VALLEYS AND
SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO SE
OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO /INCLUDING THE TREASURE VALLEY/
ALTOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT. THE STEADIER PRECIP WILL
MOVE INTO SE OREGON IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN INTO MOST OF
SW IDAHO BY MID-MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL ON TRACK...WITH
GENERALLY 0.10-0.25 INCHES RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL AVERAGE 3500 FEET THIS MORNING...THEN RISE TO
4000-4500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET...WITH UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FEET. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL
DEPART THIS EVENING FOR DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SECOND AND MUCH WETTER SYSTEM /WHICH WILL BRING COPIOUS
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/ WILL SPREAD
WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK INTO SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW IDAHO ON
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL AVERAGE 3000 FEET IN THE MORNING AND
RISE TO AROUND 4000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SE OREGON /INCLUDING BURNS
AND BAKER CITY/ BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...A MOIST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
RISING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT BRINGS ENHANCED
PRECIP AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY SUNDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
TO NEARLY 9000 FT IN SE OREGON AND AROUND 6000 FT IN CENTRAL
IDAHO. IN THE VALLEYS...A STEADY RAIN DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COULD BRING NEARLY A HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION...WHILE THE
HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD SEE UP TO 24
INCHES OF SNOW. MEANWHILE...IN LOWER MOUNTAIN AREAS...SNOW WILL
TURN TO RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MELT PREVIOUS
SNOWFALL. ON TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OFF OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PUSHING MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH AND DRYING THINGS OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MID DAY. ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY INLAND
AND FLATTENING OUT THAT RIDGE AND BRINGING THE AREA ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SNOW. AT THIS POINT...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER
AND WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO UNCERTAINTY LIES IN SNOW LEVELS AND
TEMPERATURES. THAT TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY LEAVING THE AREA
IN A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN VALLEYS...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
3000 TO 4000 FT SO MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT TO AROUND 10K FT MSL...WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 15-25
KTS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RAISE SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 8000 FT IN SE OREGON AND 6000 FT IN CENTRAL IDAHO
BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 191017
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
317 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS
ARRIVES TODAY...BRINGING STEADY RAINS TO THE LOWER VALLEYS AND
SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO SE
OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO /INCLUDING THE TREASURE VALLEY/
ALTOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT. THE STEADIER PRECIP WILL
MOVE INTO SE OREGON IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN INTO MOST OF
SW IDAHO BY MID-MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL ON TRACK...WITH
GENERALLY 0.10-0.25 INCHES RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL AVERAGE 3500 FEET THIS MORNING...THEN RISE TO
4000-4500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET...WITH UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FEET. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL
DEPART THIS EVENING FOR DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SECOND AND MUCH WETTER SYSTEM /WHICH WILL BRING COPIOUS
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/ WILL SPREAD
WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK INTO SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW IDAHO ON
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL AVERAGE 3000 FEET IN THE MORNING AND
RISE TO AROUND 4000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SE OREGON /INCLUDING BURNS
AND BAKER CITY/ BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...A MOIST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
RISING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT BRINGS ENHANCED
PRECIP AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY SUNDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
TO NEARLY 9000 FT IN SE OREGON AND AROUND 6000 FT IN CENTRAL
IDAHO. IN THE VALLEYS...A STEADY RAIN DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COULD BRING NEARLY A HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION...WHILE THE
HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD SEE UP TO 24
INCHES OF SNOW. MEANWHILE...IN LOWER MOUNTAIN AREAS...SNOW WILL
TURN TO RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MELT PREVIOUS
SNOWFALL. ON TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OFF OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PUSHING MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH AND DRYING THINGS OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MID DAY. ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY INLAND
AND FLATTENING OUT THAT RIDGE AND BRINGING THE AREA ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SNOW. AT THIS POINT...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER
AND WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO UNCERTAINTY LIES IN SNOW LEVELS AND
TEMPERATURES. THAT TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY LEAVING THE AREA
IN A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN VALLEYS...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
3000 TO 4000 FT SO MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT TO AROUND 10K FT MSL...WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 15-25
KTS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RAISE SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 8000 FT IN SE OREGON AND 6000 FT IN CENTRAL IDAHO
BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 191017
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
317 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS
ARRIVES TODAY...BRINGING STEADY RAINS TO THE LOWER VALLEYS AND
SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO SE
OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO /INCLUDING THE TREASURE VALLEY/
ALTOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT. THE STEADIER PRECIP WILL
MOVE INTO SE OREGON IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN INTO MOST OF
SW IDAHO BY MID-MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL ON TRACK...WITH
GENERALLY 0.10-0.25 INCHES RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL AVERAGE 3500 FEET THIS MORNING...THEN RISE TO
4000-4500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET...WITH UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FEET. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL
DEPART THIS EVENING FOR DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SECOND AND MUCH WETTER SYSTEM /WHICH WILL BRING COPIOUS
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/ WILL SPREAD
WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK INTO SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW IDAHO ON
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL AVERAGE 3000 FEET IN THE MORNING AND
RISE TO AROUND 4000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SE OREGON /INCLUDING BURNS
AND BAKER CITY/ BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...A MOIST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
RISING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT BRINGS ENHANCED
PRECIP AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY SUNDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
TO NEARLY 9000 FT IN SE OREGON AND AROUND 6000 FT IN CENTRAL
IDAHO. IN THE VALLEYS...A STEADY RAIN DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COULD BRING NEARLY A HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION...WHILE THE
HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD SEE UP TO 24
INCHES OF SNOW. MEANWHILE...IN LOWER MOUNTAIN AREAS...SNOW WILL
TURN TO RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MELT PREVIOUS
SNOWFALL. ON TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OFF OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PUSHING MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH AND DRYING THINGS OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MID DAY. ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY INLAND
AND FLATTENING OUT THAT RIDGE AND BRINGING THE AREA ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SNOW. AT THIS POINT...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER
AND WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO UNCERTAINTY LIES IN SNOW LEVELS AND
TEMPERATURES. THAT TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY LEAVING THE AREA
IN A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN VALLEYS...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
3000 TO 4000 FT SO MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT TO AROUND 10K FT MSL...WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 15-25
KTS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RAISE SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 8000 FT IN SE OREGON AND 6000 FT IN CENTRAL IDAHO
BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 191017
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
317 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS
ARRIVES TODAY...BRINGING STEADY RAINS TO THE LOWER VALLEYS AND
SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO SE
OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO /INCLUDING THE TREASURE VALLEY/
ALTOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT. THE STEADIER PRECIP WILL
MOVE INTO SE OREGON IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN INTO MOST OF
SW IDAHO BY MID-MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL ON TRACK...WITH
GENERALLY 0.10-0.25 INCHES RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL AVERAGE 3500 FEET THIS MORNING...THEN RISE TO
4000-4500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET...WITH UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FEET. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL
DEPART THIS EVENING FOR DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SECOND AND MUCH WETTER SYSTEM /WHICH WILL BRING COPIOUS
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/ WILL SPREAD
WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK INTO SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW IDAHO ON
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL AVERAGE 3000 FEET IN THE MORNING AND
RISE TO AROUND 4000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SE OREGON /INCLUDING BURNS
AND BAKER CITY/ BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...A MOIST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
RISING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT BRINGS ENHANCED
PRECIP AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY SUNDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
TO NEARLY 9000 FT IN SE OREGON AND AROUND 6000 FT IN CENTRAL
IDAHO. IN THE VALLEYS...A STEADY RAIN DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COULD BRING NEARLY A HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION...WHILE THE
HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD SEE UP TO 24
INCHES OF SNOW. MEANWHILE...IN LOWER MOUNTAIN AREAS...SNOW WILL
TURN TO RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MELT PREVIOUS
SNOWFALL. ON TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OFF OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PUSHING MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH AND DRYING THINGS OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MID DAY. ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY INLAND
AND FLATTENING OUT THAT RIDGE AND BRINGING THE AREA ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SNOW. AT THIS POINT...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER
AND WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO UNCERTAINTY LIES IN SNOW LEVELS AND
TEMPERATURES. THAT TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY LEAVING THE AREA
IN A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN VALLEYS...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
3000 TO 4000 FT SO MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT TO AROUND 10K FT MSL...WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 15-25
KTS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RAISE SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 8000 FT IN SE OREGON AND 6000 FT IN CENTRAL IDAHO
BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS66 KPDT 190959
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
159 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEATHER SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA AT THIS TIME WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN WA/OR. THE
SNOW LEVELS ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH TRAPPED COLD AIR ALONG THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES SUCH THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT THERE. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MORNING AND THE
ADVISORY ENDS AT 7 AM. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 2500 FEET IN
NORTHWEST AREAS TO AROUND 4500 FEET IN CENTRAL OREGON. THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3500 FEET...WHICH MAY BE
PESSIMISTIC GIVEN THE FACT THAT KMEH IS AT 37 DEGREES AND LIGHT RAIN
IS FALLING. WILL NEED TO RAISE SNOW LEVELS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH. THIS IS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT EARLY THIS MORNING IN CASE AN
ADVISORY BECOMES NEEDED. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT STILL SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER AND WETTER AS A STRONG WESTERLY 125
KT JET STREAM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WITH SPILL OVER OVER THE CASCADES
AND THEN SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CASCADES AND 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO
AROUND 8000 FEET BY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION AS MAINLY RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SMALL RIVERS AND
STREAMS ARE LIKELY TO RISE AND THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL FLOODING ON
THEM. THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES BUT ARE
NOT AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME RIVERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH ACTION STAGE THOUGH AND THAT WILL BE COVERED WITH
RIVER STATEMENTS. IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO DOWNWARD
TRANSPORT AND MIXING SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE WIND ADVISORIES
NEEDED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND
LADD/PYLES CANYONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGH SNOW LEVELS.
THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND RAINFALL ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT
WILL ALSO BE WINDY SUNDAY MORNING WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
POSSIBLE. A SLIGHT DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. ON WEDNESDAY A
MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AREAWIDE. THE SNOW WILL LINGER IN THE EAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY. AS
OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT. IT
WILL BE COLD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND
RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 18Z
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME 5 TO 10 KT WINDS MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM THE SW. AFTER 03Z EXPECT CIGS TO
LOWER ONCE AGAIN TO MVFR/IFR WITH SOME FOG FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
NIGHT. LIFR VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  34  49  43 /  70  20  80  80
ALW  46  36  48  43 /  80  20  80  80
PSC  48  36  48  40 /  60  10  80  50
YKM  44  32  42  33 /  50  20  80  40
HRI  47  35  49  41 /  60  20  80  50
ELN  41  31  39  31 /  50  20  80  70
RDM  44  33  48  39 /  60  30  80  60
LGD  41  34  42  38 /  80  20  90  90
GCD  41  33  42  39 /  80  20  80  90
DLS  47  36  46  41 /  70  30  90  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ026>028.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 2500
     FEET FOR THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/78/78





000
FXUS66 KPDT 190959
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
159 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEATHER SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA AT THIS TIME WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN WA/OR. THE
SNOW LEVELS ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH TRAPPED COLD AIR ALONG THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES SUCH THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT THERE. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MORNING AND THE
ADVISORY ENDS AT 7 AM. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 2500 FEET IN
NORTHWEST AREAS TO AROUND 4500 FEET IN CENTRAL OREGON. THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3500 FEET...WHICH MAY BE
PESSIMISTIC GIVEN THE FACT THAT KMEH IS AT 37 DEGREES AND LIGHT RAIN
IS FALLING. WILL NEED TO RAISE SNOW LEVELS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH. THIS IS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT EARLY THIS MORNING IN CASE AN
ADVISORY BECOMES NEEDED. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT STILL SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER AND WETTER AS A STRONG WESTERLY 125
KT JET STREAM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WITH SPILL OVER OVER THE CASCADES
AND THEN SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CASCADES AND 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO
AROUND 8000 FEET BY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION AS MAINLY RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SMALL RIVERS AND
STREAMS ARE LIKELY TO RISE AND THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL FLOODING ON
THEM. THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES BUT ARE
NOT AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME RIVERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH ACTION STAGE THOUGH AND THAT WILL BE COVERED WITH
RIVER STATEMENTS. IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO DOWNWARD
TRANSPORT AND MIXING SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE WIND ADVISORIES
NEEDED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND
LADD/PYLES CANYONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGH SNOW LEVELS.
THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND RAINFALL ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT
WILL ALSO BE WINDY SUNDAY MORNING WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
POSSIBLE. A SLIGHT DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. ON WEDNESDAY A
MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AREAWIDE. THE SNOW WILL LINGER IN THE EAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY. AS
OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT. IT
WILL BE COLD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND
RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 18Z
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME 5 TO 10 KT WINDS MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM THE SW. AFTER 03Z EXPECT CIGS TO
LOWER ONCE AGAIN TO MVFR/IFR WITH SOME FOG FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
NIGHT. LIFR VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  34  49  43 /  70  20  80  80
ALW  46  36  48  43 /  80  20  80  80
PSC  48  36  48  40 /  60  10  80  50
YKM  44  32  42  33 /  50  20  80  40
HRI  47  35  49  41 /  60  20  80  50
ELN  41  31  39  31 /  50  20  80  70
RDM  44  33  48  39 /  60  30  80  60
LGD  41  34  42  38 /  80  20  90  90
GCD  41  33  42  39 /  80  20  80  90
DLS  47  36  46  41 /  70  30  90  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ026>028.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 2500
     FEET FOR THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/78/78






000
FXUS66 KPDT 190959
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
159 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEATHER SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA AT THIS TIME WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN WA/OR. THE
SNOW LEVELS ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH TRAPPED COLD AIR ALONG THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES SUCH THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT THERE. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MORNING AND THE
ADVISORY ENDS AT 7 AM. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 2500 FEET IN
NORTHWEST AREAS TO AROUND 4500 FEET IN CENTRAL OREGON. THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3500 FEET...WHICH MAY BE
PESSIMISTIC GIVEN THE FACT THAT KMEH IS AT 37 DEGREES AND LIGHT RAIN
IS FALLING. WILL NEED TO RAISE SNOW LEVELS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH. THIS IS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT EARLY THIS MORNING IN CASE AN
ADVISORY BECOMES NEEDED. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT STILL SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER AND WETTER AS A STRONG WESTERLY 125
KT JET STREAM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WITH SPILL OVER OVER THE CASCADES
AND THEN SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CASCADES AND 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO
AROUND 8000 FEET BY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION AS MAINLY RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SMALL RIVERS AND
STREAMS ARE LIKELY TO RISE AND THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL FLOODING ON
THEM. THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES BUT ARE
NOT AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME RIVERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH ACTION STAGE THOUGH AND THAT WILL BE COVERED WITH
RIVER STATEMENTS. IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO DOWNWARD
TRANSPORT AND MIXING SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE WIND ADVISORIES
NEEDED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND
LADD/PYLES CANYONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGH SNOW LEVELS.
THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND RAINFALL ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT
WILL ALSO BE WINDY SUNDAY MORNING WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
POSSIBLE. A SLIGHT DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. ON WEDNESDAY A
MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AREAWIDE. THE SNOW WILL LINGER IN THE EAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY. AS
OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT. IT
WILL BE COLD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND
RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 18Z
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME 5 TO 10 KT WINDS MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM THE SW. AFTER 03Z EXPECT CIGS TO
LOWER ONCE AGAIN TO MVFR/IFR WITH SOME FOG FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
NIGHT. LIFR VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  34  49  43 /  70  20  80  80
ALW  46  36  48  43 /  80  20  80  80
PSC  48  36  48  40 /  60  10  80  50
YKM  44  32  42  33 /  50  20  80  40
HRI  47  35  49  41 /  60  20  80  50
ELN  41  31  39  31 /  50  20  80  70
RDM  44  33  48  39 /  60  30  80  60
LGD  41  34  42  38 /  80  20  90  90
GCD  41  33  42  39 /  80  20  80  90
DLS  47  36  46  41 /  70  30  90  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ026>028.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 2500
     FEET FOR THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/78/78






000
FXUS66 KPDT 190959
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
159 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEATHER SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA AT THIS TIME WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN WA/OR. THE
SNOW LEVELS ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH TRAPPED COLD AIR ALONG THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES SUCH THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT THERE. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MORNING AND THE
ADVISORY ENDS AT 7 AM. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 2500 FEET IN
NORTHWEST AREAS TO AROUND 4500 FEET IN CENTRAL OREGON. THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3500 FEET...WHICH MAY BE
PESSIMISTIC GIVEN THE FACT THAT KMEH IS AT 37 DEGREES AND LIGHT RAIN
IS FALLING. WILL NEED TO RAISE SNOW LEVELS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH. THIS IS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT EARLY THIS MORNING IN CASE AN
ADVISORY BECOMES NEEDED. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT STILL SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER AND WETTER AS A STRONG WESTERLY 125
KT JET STREAM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WITH SPILL OVER OVER THE CASCADES
AND THEN SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CASCADES AND 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO
AROUND 8000 FEET BY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION AS MAINLY RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SMALL RIVERS AND
STREAMS ARE LIKELY TO RISE AND THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL FLOODING ON
THEM. THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES BUT ARE
NOT AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME RIVERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH ACTION STAGE THOUGH AND THAT WILL BE COVERED WITH
RIVER STATEMENTS. IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO DOWNWARD
TRANSPORT AND MIXING SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE WIND ADVISORIES
NEEDED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND
LADD/PYLES CANYONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGH SNOW LEVELS.
THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND RAINFALL ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT
WILL ALSO BE WINDY SUNDAY MORNING WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
POSSIBLE. A SLIGHT DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. ON WEDNESDAY A
MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AREAWIDE. THE SNOW WILL LINGER IN THE EAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY. AS
OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT. IT
WILL BE COLD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND
RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 18Z
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME 5 TO 10 KT WINDS MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM THE SW. AFTER 03Z EXPECT CIGS TO
LOWER ONCE AGAIN TO MVFR/IFR WITH SOME FOG FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
NIGHT. LIFR VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  34  49  43 /  70  20  80  80
ALW  46  36  48  43 /  80  20  80  80
PSC  48  36  48  40 /  60  10  80  50
YKM  44  32  42  33 /  50  20  80  40
HRI  47  35  49  41 /  60  20  80  50
ELN  41  31  39  31 /  50  20  80  70
RDM  44  33  48  39 /  60  30  80  60
LGD  41  34  42  38 /  80  20  90  90
GCD  41  33  42  39 /  80  20  80  90
DLS  47  36  46  41 /  70  30  90  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ026>028.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 2500
     FEET FOR THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/78/78





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