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000
FXUS66 KPDT 242340 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
340 PST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WET AND WINDY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS DIRECTING A PLUME
OF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE DIRECTING IT INTO WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN OREGON IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT. RADARS IN WESTERN
WASHINGTON ARE ALREADY FILLING IN AS RAIN ARRIVES INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL DIRECT THIS INTO
THE CASCADES AND THEN INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON
OVERNIGHT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THIS PATTERN FOR THE CASCADES AND THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WHICH COULD CREATE SOME SMALL STREAM ISSUES GOING FORWARD.
THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN SHADOWING TAKING PLACE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM REDMOND TO YAKIMA AND
THE TRI-CITIES WILL BE LIGHT AND LIMITED. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS RAIN DUE TO SNOW LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 8000 FEET BY
TUESDAY. SOME STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THIS WARM
FRONT SO EXPECT INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL LIFT THE MAIN
RAIN BAND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN
ON THURSDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE CASCADE REGION BUT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS THE WARM FRONT COMBINED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING 50S AND EVEN SOME LOW 60
DEGREE MAX TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WAS IN PLACE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM CANADA WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT THE FLOW OUT OF THE WEST.  AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE IN TOWARDS THE COAST ALLOWING FOR A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO MEET UP WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH.  RIGHT
NOW THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE PRECIPITATION UP TO THE
OR/WA BOARDER...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE WASHINGTON STATE LINE BY SUNDAY MORNING.  THE
OTHER ISSUE IS THE COLD AIR INTRUSION TO THE SOUTH.  BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE COLD AIR SHOULD COVER MOST OF WASHINGTON...BUT THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF IT REACHING DOWN INTO CENTRAL OREGON AS WELL.
THIS MAKES THE RAIN/SNOW PREDICTION DIFFICULT.  AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXTENDED...HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
NOW BY SUNDAY MORNING ALL AREAS NORTH OF DESCHUTES...CROOK...AND
GRANT COUNTY OREGON SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.  THIS IS OF
COURSE IS THE AREA OF DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL NORTH OF THE OR/WA BOARDER.  RIGHT NOW THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON...ALONG WITH THE
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
OVER THE AREA. GFS HAS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PUSH THE LOW OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE THE LOW SIT OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST...SPINNING UP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR STILL REMAINS IN PLACE.  THIS ALLOWS FOR THE
MAIN FORM OF PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW ACROSS ALL AREAS.

THE ONLY OTHER NOTE WOULD BE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
ALWAYS EXISTS WHEN WARM AIR OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR.  SO FAR MODELS
SEEM TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN OR SNOW...AND
WARM AIR OVERRUNNING COLD AIR IS LESS PREDOMINATE.  HOWEVER THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM FROM NOV 12-14 HAD SOME SIMILARITIES TO THIS
SYSTEM...AND SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRED IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL OREGON. AGAIN...CURRENT MODELS DO NOT INDICATE A DEFINITIVE
FREEZING RAIN SOUNDING IN THE EXTENDED...BUT CERTAIN AREAS COULD BE
VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FREEZING RAIN.    WEBER


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 6
TO 9 HOURS...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW FROM 06Z TUESDAY
ONWARD.   RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ENTER TAF SITES AFTER 3Z AND MAY
PERSIST ON AND OFF AT SOME TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW.  EXPECT
POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS CIGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES. WEBER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  57  46  59 /  90  70  10   0
ALW  45  57  50  59 /  90  80  20  10
PSC  43  56  47  58 /  70  20  10   0
YKM  37  52  39  53 /  50  10  10  10
HRI  44  58  47  59 /  70  20  10   0
ELN  36  50  40  53 /  60  20  20  10
RDM  39  58  36  59 /  20  10   0   0
LGD  40  50  41  51 / 100 100  30   0
GCD  38  51  39  52 /  60  40  10   0
DLS  44  58  46  59 /  60  30  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89






000
FXUS66 KPDT 242340 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
340 PST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WET AND WINDY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS DIRECTING A PLUME
OF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE DIRECTING IT INTO WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN OREGON IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT. RADARS IN WESTERN
WASHINGTON ARE ALREADY FILLING IN AS RAIN ARRIVES INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL DIRECT THIS INTO
THE CASCADES AND THEN INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON
OVERNIGHT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THIS PATTERN FOR THE CASCADES AND THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WHICH COULD CREATE SOME SMALL STREAM ISSUES GOING FORWARD.
THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN SHADOWING TAKING PLACE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM REDMOND TO YAKIMA AND
THE TRI-CITIES WILL BE LIGHT AND LIMITED. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS RAIN DUE TO SNOW LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 8000 FEET BY
TUESDAY. SOME STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THIS WARM
FRONT SO EXPECT INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL LIFT THE MAIN
RAIN BAND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN
ON THURSDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE CASCADE REGION BUT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS THE WARM FRONT COMBINED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING 50S AND EVEN SOME LOW 60
DEGREE MAX TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WAS IN PLACE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM CANADA WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT THE FLOW OUT OF THE WEST.  AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE IN TOWARDS THE COAST ALLOWING FOR A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO MEET UP WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH.  RIGHT
NOW THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE PRECIPITATION UP TO THE
OR/WA BOARDER...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE WASHINGTON STATE LINE BY SUNDAY MORNING.  THE
OTHER ISSUE IS THE COLD AIR INTRUSION TO THE SOUTH.  BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE COLD AIR SHOULD COVER MOST OF WASHINGTON...BUT THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF IT REACHING DOWN INTO CENTRAL OREGON AS WELL.
THIS MAKES THE RAIN/SNOW PREDICTION DIFFICULT.  AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXTENDED...HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
NOW BY SUNDAY MORNING ALL AREAS NORTH OF DESCHUTES...CROOK...AND
GRANT COUNTY OREGON SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.  THIS IS OF
COURSE IS THE AREA OF DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL NORTH OF THE OR/WA BOARDER.  RIGHT NOW THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON...ALONG WITH THE
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
OVER THE AREA. GFS HAS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PUSH THE LOW OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE THE LOW SIT OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST...SPINNING UP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR STILL REMAINS IN PLACE.  THIS ALLOWS FOR THE
MAIN FORM OF PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW ACROSS ALL AREAS.

THE ONLY OTHER NOTE WOULD BE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
ALWAYS EXISTS WHEN WARM AIR OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR.  SO FAR MODELS
SEEM TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN OR SNOW...AND
WARM AIR OVERRUNNING COLD AIR IS LESS PREDOMINATE.  HOWEVER THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM FROM NOV 12-14 HAD SOME SIMILARITIES TO THIS
SYSTEM...AND SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRED IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL OREGON. AGAIN...CURRENT MODELS DO NOT INDICATE A DEFINITIVE
FREEZING RAIN SOUNDING IN THE EXTENDED...BUT CERTAIN AREAS COULD BE
VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FREEZING RAIN.    WEBER


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 6
TO 9 HOURS...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW FROM 06Z TUESDAY
ONWARD.   RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ENTER TAF SITES AFTER 3Z AND MAY
PERSIST ON AND OFF AT SOME TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW.  EXPECT
POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS CIGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES. WEBER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  57  46  59 /  90  70  10   0
ALW  45  57  50  59 /  90  80  20  10
PSC  43  56  47  58 /  70  20  10   0
YKM  37  52  39  53 /  50  10  10  10
HRI  44  58  47  59 /  70  20  10   0
ELN  36  50  40  53 /  60  20  20  10
RDM  39  58  36  59 /  20  10   0   0
LGD  40  50  41  51 / 100 100  30   0
GCD  38  51  39  52 /  60  40  10   0
DLS  44  58  46  59 /  60  30  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89






  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMFR 242244
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
244 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...A RATHER QUIET PATTERN IS AHEAD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT I FIND IS SUSPECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THE SATELLITE IMAGE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SECOND,
THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION. THIRD, THE RADAR HAS YET
TO SHOW ANY RETURNS. AT THE SAME TIME, 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE RISING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND GUT FEELING IS THAT MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL GET DIRECTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. I
HAVE DECREASED POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT, BUT THEY MAY NEED
TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN FURTHER IF THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION DOES
NOT MATERIALIZE.

THE RIDGE WILL AMPIFLY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
STORM TRACK REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE STABLE AND WE COULD HAVE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION RESULTING IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS. THIS
COULD BE OF CONCERN FOR ANYONE PLANING ON TRAVELING OUT OF MEDFORD
ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG COULD LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND NOT
BREAK OUT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT THANKSGIVING DAY AND THIS WILL
BE THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE. THE MODELS SHOW A FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY MOVE INLAND
DURING THE DAY. BASED ON CURRENT TIMING, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS.
-PETRUCELLI


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A MEAN
TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR 160W WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE U.S. WEST
COAST LATE THIS WEEK AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO WET WEATHER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DURING THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LITTLE LOWER IN THE DETAILS OF
SPECIFIC SYSTEMS WITHIN THIS MEAN TROUGH, BUT A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK LOOKS IMMINENT.

THE INITIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE ALL MAJOR PASSES ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM SNOW. IT WILL PROBABLY BE
WET FOR THOSE TRAVELING ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST
(INCLUDING ALL MAJOR PASSES), SO TAKE THAT INTO ACCOUNT WHEN MAKING
PLANS. THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION
GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE, BUT SNOW LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE PASS LEVEL.

ON SUNDAY, THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS IN ALONG THE COAST WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW TAKING UP A POSITION AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO. BOTH THE GFS
AND EC ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS AND SHOW THE FIRST
REAL SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIPITATION EVENT OF THE SEASON THROUGH THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND INTO THE SHASTA AREA. WHILE I`VE KEPT POPS
HIGH FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA, THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT. AT THIS
TIME, THE SITUATION IS NOT IDEAL FOR A SNOW EVENT ALONG I-5 AROUND
MT. SHASTA CITY, BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE TOO HIGH AND THE FLOW IS NOT ALIGNED AS WELL AS WE`D LIKE TO SEE
TO GET SNOW DOWN TO THE INTERSTATE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE
A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY, I DID PUT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SHASTA
AREA FOR SUNDAY.

SNOW LEVELS DO FINALLY FALL TO PASS LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
MEAN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE
GONE AT THAT TIME, SO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT THERE
CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -WRIGHT


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND UMPQUA THIS EVENING, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER. IFR/LIFR CIGS IN FOG/LOW
CLOUD WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014...A WEAK FRONT MOVES
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS AND WINDS DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WEST SWELL CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A STRONGER FRONT INCREASES
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASED WEST SWELL TO
BRING  A CHAOTIC MIX OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND WEST
SWELL FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE PERIOD ON THE
WESTERLY SWELL FOR THE CRAB SEASON PRE-SOAK PERIOD LOOKS TO START AT
AROUND 13 SECONDS AND REMAINS IN THAT RANGE INTO THE WEEKEND. SVEN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 242244
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
244 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...A RATHER QUIET PATTERN IS AHEAD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT I FIND IS SUSPECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THE SATELLITE IMAGE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SECOND,
THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION. THIRD, THE RADAR HAS YET
TO SHOW ANY RETURNS. AT THE SAME TIME, 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE RISING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND GUT FEELING IS THAT MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL GET DIRECTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. I
HAVE DECREASED POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT, BUT THEY MAY NEED
TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN FURTHER IF THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION DOES
NOT MATERIALIZE.

THE RIDGE WILL AMPIFLY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
STORM TRACK REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE STABLE AND WE COULD HAVE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION RESULTING IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS. THIS
COULD BE OF CONCERN FOR ANYONE PLANING ON TRAVELING OUT OF MEDFORD
ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG COULD LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND NOT
BREAK OUT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT THANKSGIVING DAY AND THIS WILL
BE THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE. THE MODELS SHOW A FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY MOVE INLAND
DURING THE DAY. BASED ON CURRENT TIMING, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS.
-PETRUCELLI


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A MEAN
TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR 160W WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE U.S. WEST
COAST LATE THIS WEEK AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO WET WEATHER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DURING THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LITTLE LOWER IN THE DETAILS OF
SPECIFIC SYSTEMS WITHIN THIS MEAN TROUGH, BUT A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK LOOKS IMMINENT.

THE INITIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE ALL MAJOR PASSES ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM SNOW. IT WILL PROBABLY BE
WET FOR THOSE TRAVELING ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST
(INCLUDING ALL MAJOR PASSES), SO TAKE THAT INTO ACCOUNT WHEN MAKING
PLANS. THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION
GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE, BUT SNOW LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE PASS LEVEL.

ON SUNDAY, THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS IN ALONG THE COAST WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW TAKING UP A POSITION AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO. BOTH THE GFS
AND EC ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS AND SHOW THE FIRST
REAL SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIPITATION EVENT OF THE SEASON THROUGH THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND INTO THE SHASTA AREA. WHILE I`VE KEPT POPS
HIGH FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA, THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT. AT THIS
TIME, THE SITUATION IS NOT IDEAL FOR A SNOW EVENT ALONG I-5 AROUND
MT. SHASTA CITY, BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE TOO HIGH AND THE FLOW IS NOT ALIGNED AS WELL AS WE`D LIKE TO SEE
TO GET SNOW DOWN TO THE INTERSTATE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE
A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY, I DID PUT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SHASTA
AREA FOR SUNDAY.

SNOW LEVELS DO FINALLY FALL TO PASS LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
MEAN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE
GONE AT THAT TIME, SO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT THERE
CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -WRIGHT


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND UMPQUA THIS EVENING, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER. IFR/LIFR CIGS IN FOG/LOW
CLOUD WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014...A WEAK FRONT MOVES
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS AND WINDS DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WEST SWELL CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A STRONGER FRONT INCREASES
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASED WEST SWELL TO
BRING  A CHAOTIC MIX OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND WEST
SWELL FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE PERIOD ON THE
WESTERLY SWELL FOR THE CRAB SEASON PRE-SOAK PERIOD LOOKS TO START AT
AROUND 13 SECONDS AND REMAINS IN THAT RANGE INTO THE WEEKEND. SVEN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KPDT 242230
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WET AND WINDY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS DIRECTING A PLUME
OF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE DIRECTING IT INTO WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN OREGON IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT. RADARS IN WESTERN
WASHINGTON ARE ALREADY FILLING IN AS RAIN ARRIVES INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL DIRECT THIS INTO
THE CASCADES AND THEN INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON
OVERNIGHT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THIS PATTERN FOR THE CASCADES AND THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WHICH COULD CREATE SOME SMALL STREAM ISSUES GOING FORWARD.
THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN SHADOWING TAKING PLACE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM REDMOND TO YAKIMA AND
THE TRI-CITIES WILL BE LIGHT AND LIMITED. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS RAIN DUE TO SNOW LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 8000 FEET BY
TUESDAY. SOME STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THIS WARM
FRONT SO EXPECT INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL LIFT THE MAIN
RAIN BAND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN
ON THURSDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE CASCADE REGION BUT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS THE WARM FRONT COMBINED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING 50S AND EVEN SOME LOW 60
DEGREE MAX TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WAS IN PLACE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM CANADA WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT THE FLOW OUT OF THE WEST.  AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE IN TOWARDS THE COAST ALLOWING FOR A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO MEET UP WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH.  RIGHT
NOW THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE PRECIPITATION UP TO THE
OR/WA BOARDER...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE WASHINGTON STATE LINE BY SUNDAY MORNING.  THE
OTHER ISSUE IS THE COLD AIR INTRUSION TO THE SOUTH.  BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE COLD AIR SHOULD COVER MOST OF WASHINGTON...BUT THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF IT REACHING DOWN INTO CENTRAL OREGON AS WELL.
THIS MAKES THE RAIN/SNOW PREDICTION DIFFICULT.  AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXTENDED...HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
NOW BY SUNDAY MORNING ALL AREAS NORTH OF DESCHUTES...CROOK...AND
GRANT COUNTY OREGON SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.  THIS IS OF
COURSE IS THE AREA OF DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL NORTH OF THE OR/WA BOARDER.  RIGHT NOW THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON...ALONG WITH THE
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
OVER THE AREA. GFS HAS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PUSH THE LOW OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE THE LOW SIT OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST...SPINNING UP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR STILL REMAINS IN PLACE.  THIS ALLOWS FOR THE
MAIN FORM OF PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW ACROSS ALL AREAS.

THE ONLY OTHER NOTE WOULD BE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
ALWAYS EXISTS WHEN WARM AIR OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR.  SO FAR MODELS
SEEM TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN OR SNOW...AND
WARM AIR OVERRUNNING COLD AIR IS LESS PREDOMINATE.  HOWEVER THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM FROM NOV 12-14 HAD SOME SIMILARITIES TO THIS
SYSTEM...AND SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRED IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL OREGON. AGAIN...CURRENT MODELS DO NOT INDICATE A DEFINITIVE
FREEZING RAIN SOUNDING IN THE EXTENDED...BUT CERTAIN AREAS COULD BE
VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FREEZING RAIN.    WEBER


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW FROM 06Z-18Z TUESDAY.
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ENTER TAF SITES AFTER 3Z AND MAY PERSIST ON AND
OFF AT SOME TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.  EXPECT POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS CIGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5-15KTS. WEBER    WEBER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  57  46  59 /  90  70  10   0
ALW  45  57  50  59 /  90  80  20  10
PSC  43  56  47  58 /  70  20  10   0
YKM  37  52  39  53 /  50  10  10  10
HRI  44  58  47  59 /  70  20  10   0
ELN  36  50  40  53 /  60  20  20  10
RDM  39  58  36  59 /  20  10   0   0
LGD  40  50  41  51 / 100 100  30   0
GCD  38  51  39  52 /  60  40  10   0
DLS  44  58  46  59 /  60  30  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89









000
FXUS66 KPDT 242230
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WET AND WINDY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS DIRECTING A PLUME
OF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE DIRECTING IT INTO WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN OREGON IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT. RADARS IN WESTERN
WASHINGTON ARE ALREADY FILLING IN AS RAIN ARRIVES INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL DIRECT THIS INTO
THE CASCADES AND THEN INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON
OVERNIGHT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THIS PATTERN FOR THE CASCADES AND THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WHICH COULD CREATE SOME SMALL STREAM ISSUES GOING FORWARD.
THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN SHADOWING TAKING PLACE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM REDMOND TO YAKIMA AND
THE TRI-CITIES WILL BE LIGHT AND LIMITED. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS RAIN DUE TO SNOW LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 8000 FEET BY
TUESDAY. SOME STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THIS WARM
FRONT SO EXPECT INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL LIFT THE MAIN
RAIN BAND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN
ON THURSDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE CASCADE REGION BUT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS THE WARM FRONT COMBINED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING 50S AND EVEN SOME LOW 60
DEGREE MAX TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WAS IN PLACE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM CANADA WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT THE FLOW OUT OF THE WEST.  AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE IN TOWARDS THE COAST ALLOWING FOR A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO MEET UP WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH.  RIGHT
NOW THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE PRECIPITATION UP TO THE
OR/WA BOARDER...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE WASHINGTON STATE LINE BY SUNDAY MORNING.  THE
OTHER ISSUE IS THE COLD AIR INTRUSION TO THE SOUTH.  BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE COLD AIR SHOULD COVER MOST OF WASHINGTON...BUT THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF IT REACHING DOWN INTO CENTRAL OREGON AS WELL.
THIS MAKES THE RAIN/SNOW PREDICTION DIFFICULT.  AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXTENDED...HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
NOW BY SUNDAY MORNING ALL AREAS NORTH OF DESCHUTES...CROOK...AND
GRANT COUNTY OREGON SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.  THIS IS OF
COURSE IS THE AREA OF DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL NORTH OF THE OR/WA BOARDER.  RIGHT NOW THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON...ALONG WITH THE
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
OVER THE AREA. GFS HAS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PUSH THE LOW OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE THE LOW SIT OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST...SPINNING UP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR STILL REMAINS IN PLACE.  THIS ALLOWS FOR THE
MAIN FORM OF PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW ACROSS ALL AREAS.

THE ONLY OTHER NOTE WOULD BE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
ALWAYS EXISTS WHEN WARM AIR OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR.  SO FAR MODELS
SEEM TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN OR SNOW...AND
WARM AIR OVERRUNNING COLD AIR IS LESS PREDOMINATE.  HOWEVER THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM FROM NOV 12-14 HAD SOME SIMILARITIES TO THIS
SYSTEM...AND SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRED IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL OREGON. AGAIN...CURRENT MODELS DO NOT INDICATE A DEFINITIVE
FREEZING RAIN SOUNDING IN THE EXTENDED...BUT CERTAIN AREAS COULD BE
VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FREEZING RAIN.    WEBER


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW FROM 06Z-18Z TUESDAY.
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ENTER TAF SITES AFTER 3Z AND MAY PERSIST ON AND
OFF AT SOME TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.  EXPECT POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS CIGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5-15KTS. WEBER    WEBER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  57  46  59 /  90  70  10   0
ALW  45  57  50  59 /  90  80  20  10
PSC  43  56  47  58 /  70  20  10   0
YKM  37  52  39  53 /  50  10  10  10
HRI  44  58  47  59 /  70  20  10   0
ELN  36  50  40  53 /  60  20  20  10
RDM  39  58  36  59 /  20  10   0   0
LGD  40  50  41  51 / 100 100  30   0
GCD  38  51  39  52 /  60  40  10   0
DLS  44  58  46  59 /  60  30  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89







  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 242228
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
227 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE RAIN WITH RISING
SNOW LEVELS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
OREGON LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL BAND BEGINS
TO SHIFT NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO DO SO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THANKSGIVING
DAY. A CHANGE TO MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS OCCURS LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...SOME LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS STARTING TO SHOW UP NEAR THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST ON KRTX
DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR AS OF 21Z. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT.
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE TODAY APPEARS TO BE OVER SW WA. A WARM
FRONTAL BAROCLINC ZONE AIDED BY A STRONG JET DEVELOPS OVER WRN WA AND
EXTREME NW OREGON TONIGHT. THE NOAA OPERATIONAL BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES 1 TO 1.25 INCHES WITH THIS WARM
FRONTAL FEATURE. HEAVIEST QPF TONIGHT WILL BE CENTERED ON THE SW WA
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES. HAVE NUDGED THE 06Z-12Z QPF NUMBERS
UP TO NEARLY 2/3 OF AN INCH IN THE 6-HOUR PERIOD WHICH MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST ROBUST WITH QPF...INDICATING 1
TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE SW WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS IN THE 06Z-12Z
PERIOD AND OVER 2 INCHES IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD. HAVE ALSO INCREASED
THE QPF IN SW WA AND EXTREME NW OREGON FOR THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME.
THE GFS DOES HAVE UPWARDS OF 40 KT WLY 850 MB FLOW INTO THE S
WA CASCADES WHICH WOULD GENERATE IMPRESSIVE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.
NO RIVER CONCERNS AS OF YET...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR SHOULD THE GFS
NUMBERS TURN OUT MORE ACCURATE.

SNOW LEVELS RISE TO ABOVE 8000 FEET BY TONIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS GRADUALLY FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
NORTHWARD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SW WA AND THE EXTREME NRN OREGON
ZONES MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY WED...BUT AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
KTMK-KSLE LINE SHOULD BE DRY. 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 10C WED...BUT
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL TEMPER THE WARMING IN THOSE AREAS. MODELS ARE
COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED
FOR EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. OVER-RUNNING PRECIP MAY REACH THE COAST
AS EARLY AS 06Z THU...THEN GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND THEREAFTER. HIGHEST
QPF LOOKS TO STAY IN WASHINGTON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR JET STREAM
PHASING SOMEWHERE NEAR PUGET SOUND. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. THANKSGIVING NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
COMPLICATED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLDER NRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SAGGING
SOUTH FRI WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OFF THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS
HANDLE THE NRN STREAM MUCH DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF ALLOWS SOME OF THE
COLDER AIR TO SEEP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST SAT COMPARED TO THE GFS.
THIS HAS MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS ON SNOW LEVELS. HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE
LOWEST NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO
MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW NEAR 35N 130W SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MOISTURE
OVER-RUNNING THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF
SNOW BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FEET ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FORECAST...AND
EVEN LOWER IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND S WA CASCADES FOOTHILLS. A LOT
OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME THUS OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT TOO HIGH. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR TONIGHT AS
A WARM FRONT LOWERS CIGS AND RAIN OR FOG REDUCES VISIBILITIES.
THE COAST SHOULD SEE GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WITH THE
FRONT THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN DECREASES AND WINDS
CALM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KPDX AND ALONG THE OREGON COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERING CIGS
AND BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN LOW TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING MVFR CONDITIONS. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT IS GENERATING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...VERIFYING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
STILL EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WITH
THE FRONT PASSAGE...MAINLY WITHIN 20 NM BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM. THE
WINDS WILL EASE BELOW 25 KT AND VEER TO THE SW TONIGHT. SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS OR GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE
WATERS. A STRONGER FRONT WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES WED
OR WED NIGHT. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A GALE WATCH TO LIMIT
THE CONFUSION OF MULTIPLE HEADLINES.

COMBINED SEAS WILL HOVER AROUND 10 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS AT OR ABOVE 10 FT MAY HOLD ON NORTH OF CASCADE
HEAD INTO WED MORNING DUE TO THE LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS.  THE
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BUILDING WITH THE
NEXT FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     PST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 242228
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
227 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE RAIN WITH RISING
SNOW LEVELS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
OREGON LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL BAND BEGINS
TO SHIFT NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO DO SO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THANKSGIVING
DAY. A CHANGE TO MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS OCCURS LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...SOME LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS STARTING TO SHOW UP NEAR THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST ON KRTX
DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR AS OF 21Z. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT.
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE TODAY APPEARS TO BE OVER SW WA. A WARM
FRONTAL BAROCLINC ZONE AIDED BY A STRONG JET DEVELOPS OVER WRN WA AND
EXTREME NW OREGON TONIGHT. THE NOAA OPERATIONAL BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES 1 TO 1.25 INCHES WITH THIS WARM
FRONTAL FEATURE. HEAVIEST QPF TONIGHT WILL BE CENTERED ON THE SW WA
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES. HAVE NUDGED THE 06Z-12Z QPF NUMBERS
UP TO NEARLY 2/3 OF AN INCH IN THE 6-HOUR PERIOD WHICH MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST ROBUST WITH QPF...INDICATING 1
TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE SW WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS IN THE 06Z-12Z
PERIOD AND OVER 2 INCHES IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD. HAVE ALSO INCREASED
THE QPF IN SW WA AND EXTREME NW OREGON FOR THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME.
THE GFS DOES HAVE UPWARDS OF 40 KT WLY 850 MB FLOW INTO THE S
WA CASCADES WHICH WOULD GENERATE IMPRESSIVE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.
NO RIVER CONCERNS AS OF YET...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR SHOULD THE GFS
NUMBERS TURN OUT MORE ACCURATE.

SNOW LEVELS RISE TO ABOVE 8000 FEET BY TONIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS GRADUALLY FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
NORTHWARD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SW WA AND THE EXTREME NRN OREGON
ZONES MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY WED...BUT AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
KTMK-KSLE LINE SHOULD BE DRY. 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 10C WED...BUT
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL TEMPER THE WARMING IN THOSE AREAS. MODELS ARE
COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED
FOR EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. OVER-RUNNING PRECIP MAY REACH THE COAST
AS EARLY AS 06Z THU...THEN GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND THEREAFTER. HIGHEST
QPF LOOKS TO STAY IN WASHINGTON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR JET STREAM
PHASING SOMEWHERE NEAR PUGET SOUND. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. THANKSGIVING NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
COMPLICATED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLDER NRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SAGGING
SOUTH FRI WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OFF THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS
HANDLE THE NRN STREAM MUCH DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF ALLOWS SOME OF THE
COLDER AIR TO SEEP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST SAT COMPARED TO THE GFS.
THIS HAS MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS ON SNOW LEVELS. HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE
LOWEST NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO
MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW NEAR 35N 130W SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MOISTURE
OVER-RUNNING THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF
SNOW BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FEET ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FORECAST...AND
EVEN LOWER IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND S WA CASCADES FOOTHILLS. A LOT
OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME THUS OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT TOO HIGH. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR TONIGHT AS
A WARM FRONT LOWERS CIGS AND RAIN OR FOG REDUCES VISIBILITIES.
THE COAST SHOULD SEE GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WITH THE
FRONT THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN DECREASES AND WINDS
CALM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KPDX AND ALONG THE OREGON COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERING CIGS
AND BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN LOW TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING MVFR CONDITIONS. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT IS GENERATING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...VERIFYING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
STILL EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WITH
THE FRONT PASSAGE...MAINLY WITHIN 20 NM BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM. THE
WINDS WILL EASE BELOW 25 KT AND VEER TO THE SW TONIGHT. SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS OR GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE
WATERS. A STRONGER FRONT WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES WED
OR WED NIGHT. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A GALE WATCH TO LIMIT
THE CONFUSION OF MULTIPLE HEADLINES.

COMBINED SEAS WILL HOVER AROUND 10 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS AT OR ABOVE 10 FT MAY HOLD ON NORTH OF CASCADE
HEAD INTO WED MORNING DUE TO THE LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS.  THE
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BUILDING WITH THE
NEXT FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     PST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 242144
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MOIST PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL WILL BE
SUFFICIENT IN THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY AROUND
MCCALL...TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SNOW. THIS ADVISORY RUNS FROM 03Z TONIGHT UNTIL 00Z WED. FOUR TO
EIGHT INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT MCCALL...WITH 8 TO 16 INCHES ABOVE
7000 FEET. ELSEWHERE...RAIN WILL FALL IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
BEGINNING THIS EVENING IN OREGON...AND BEGINNING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 3 AM MST IN SW IDAHO. THIS RAIN WILL LAST PAST RUSH-HOUR
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. TEMPS TUE WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHERE AND HOW LONG THE RAIN AND SNOW LAST. AT THIS
TIME...WE DECIDED TO STAY A LITTLE BELOW THE MODEL GUIDANCE AS WE
HAVE DONE FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE MOISTURE WILL MOVE OUT TO
THE EAST TUE NIGHT...LEAVING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NE CORNER OF THE
CWA...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM NE BAKER COUNTY...TO MCCALL...
TO FAIRFIELD. ON WED...A FLAT RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA...
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BUT LEAVING LOTS OF CLOUDS IN
THE NORTH. COMPARED TO TOMORROW...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES IN SE OREGON AND THE SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS...BUT REMAIN
LARGELY UNCHANGED ELSEWHERE. WITH THE INVERSION GONE...FREEZING
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD...HOWEVER...BE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
THAT EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON EXPOSED RIDGES LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE REGION WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S ON THURSDAY
IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY ALLOWING MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND. SNOW LEVEL REMAIN QUITE HIGH /ABOVE 5500 FEET/ THROUGH
MONDAY. MODELS SHOW COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FROM
CANADA REACHING NORTHEAST OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
MONDAY...PUSHING THE FRONT AND COLD AIR BACK NORTH. A RETURN TO A
MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY AS SNOW LEVELS
DROP TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. CLOUDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPECTED STARTING AROUND 03Z IN
SE OREGON AND 06Z IN SW IDAHO. EXPECT RAIN AT KBOI FROM 0730Z
THROUGH 19Z TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KMYL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...NW 25-35KT...
SUBSIDING TO NW 15-25KT MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO WNW 40-55KT
BY 06Z TUES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
     TUESDAY IDZ011.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 242144
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MOIST PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL WILL BE
SUFFICIENT IN THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY AROUND
MCCALL...TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SNOW. THIS ADVISORY RUNS FROM 03Z TONIGHT UNTIL 00Z WED. FOUR TO
EIGHT INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT MCCALL...WITH 8 TO 16 INCHES ABOVE
7000 FEET. ELSEWHERE...RAIN WILL FALL IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
BEGINNING THIS EVENING IN OREGON...AND BEGINNING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 3 AM MST IN SW IDAHO. THIS RAIN WILL LAST PAST RUSH-HOUR
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. TEMPS TUE WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHERE AND HOW LONG THE RAIN AND SNOW LAST. AT THIS
TIME...WE DECIDED TO STAY A LITTLE BELOW THE MODEL GUIDANCE AS WE
HAVE DONE FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE MOISTURE WILL MOVE OUT TO
THE EAST TUE NIGHT...LEAVING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NE CORNER OF THE
CWA...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM NE BAKER COUNTY...TO MCCALL...
TO FAIRFIELD. ON WED...A FLAT RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA...
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BUT LEAVING LOTS OF CLOUDS IN
THE NORTH. COMPARED TO TOMORROW...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES IN SE OREGON AND THE SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS...BUT REMAIN
LARGELY UNCHANGED ELSEWHERE. WITH THE INVERSION GONE...FREEZING
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD...HOWEVER...BE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
THAT EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON EXPOSED RIDGES LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE REGION WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S ON THURSDAY
IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY ALLOWING MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND. SNOW LEVEL REMAIN QUITE HIGH /ABOVE 5500 FEET/ THROUGH
MONDAY. MODELS SHOW COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FROM
CANADA REACHING NORTHEAST OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
MONDAY...PUSHING THE FRONT AND COLD AIR BACK NORTH. A RETURN TO A
MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY AS SNOW LEVELS
DROP TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. CLOUDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPECTED STARTING AROUND 03Z IN
SE OREGON AND 06Z IN SW IDAHO. EXPECT RAIN AT KBOI FROM 0730Z
THROUGH 19Z TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KMYL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...NW 25-35KT...
SUBSIDING TO NW 15-25KT MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO WNW 40-55KT
BY 06Z TUES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
     TUESDAY IDZ011.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 242144
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MOIST PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL WILL BE
SUFFICIENT IN THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY AROUND
MCCALL...TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SNOW. THIS ADVISORY RUNS FROM 03Z TONIGHT UNTIL 00Z WED. FOUR TO
EIGHT INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT MCCALL...WITH 8 TO 16 INCHES ABOVE
7000 FEET. ELSEWHERE...RAIN WILL FALL IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
BEGINNING THIS EVENING IN OREGON...AND BEGINNING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 3 AM MST IN SW IDAHO. THIS RAIN WILL LAST PAST RUSH-HOUR
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. TEMPS TUE WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHERE AND HOW LONG THE RAIN AND SNOW LAST. AT THIS
TIME...WE DECIDED TO STAY A LITTLE BELOW THE MODEL GUIDANCE AS WE
HAVE DONE FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE MOISTURE WILL MOVE OUT TO
THE EAST TUE NIGHT...LEAVING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NE CORNER OF THE
CWA...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM NE BAKER COUNTY...TO MCCALL...
TO FAIRFIELD. ON WED...A FLAT RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA...
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BUT LEAVING LOTS OF CLOUDS IN
THE NORTH. COMPARED TO TOMORROW...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES IN SE OREGON AND THE SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS...BUT REMAIN
LARGELY UNCHANGED ELSEWHERE. WITH THE INVERSION GONE...FREEZING
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD...HOWEVER...BE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
THAT EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON EXPOSED RIDGES LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE REGION WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S ON THURSDAY
IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY ALLOWING MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND. SNOW LEVEL REMAIN QUITE HIGH /ABOVE 5500 FEET/ THROUGH
MONDAY. MODELS SHOW COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FROM
CANADA REACHING NORTHEAST OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
MONDAY...PUSHING THE FRONT AND COLD AIR BACK NORTH. A RETURN TO A
MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY AS SNOW LEVELS
DROP TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. CLOUDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPECTED STARTING AROUND 03Z IN
SE OREGON AND 06Z IN SW IDAHO. EXPECT RAIN AT KBOI FROM 0730Z
THROUGH 19Z TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KMYL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...NW 25-35KT...
SUBSIDING TO NW 15-25KT MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO WNW 40-55KT
BY 06Z TUES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
     TUESDAY IDZ011.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 242144
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MOIST PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL WILL BE
SUFFICIENT IN THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY AROUND
MCCALL...TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SNOW. THIS ADVISORY RUNS FROM 03Z TONIGHT UNTIL 00Z WED. FOUR TO
EIGHT INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT MCCALL...WITH 8 TO 16 INCHES ABOVE
7000 FEET. ELSEWHERE...RAIN WILL FALL IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
BEGINNING THIS EVENING IN OREGON...AND BEGINNING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 3 AM MST IN SW IDAHO. THIS RAIN WILL LAST PAST RUSH-HOUR
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. TEMPS TUE WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHERE AND HOW LONG THE RAIN AND SNOW LAST. AT THIS
TIME...WE DECIDED TO STAY A LITTLE BELOW THE MODEL GUIDANCE AS WE
HAVE DONE FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE MOISTURE WILL MOVE OUT TO
THE EAST TUE NIGHT...LEAVING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NE CORNER OF THE
CWA...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM NE BAKER COUNTY...TO MCCALL...
TO FAIRFIELD. ON WED...A FLAT RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA...
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BUT LEAVING LOTS OF CLOUDS IN
THE NORTH. COMPARED TO TOMORROW...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES IN SE OREGON AND THE SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS...BUT REMAIN
LARGELY UNCHANGED ELSEWHERE. WITH THE INVERSION GONE...FREEZING
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD...HOWEVER...BE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
THAT EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON EXPOSED RIDGES LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE REGION WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S ON THURSDAY
IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY ALLOWING MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND. SNOW LEVEL REMAIN QUITE HIGH /ABOVE 5500 FEET/ THROUGH
MONDAY. MODELS SHOW COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FROM
CANADA REACHING NORTHEAST OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
MONDAY...PUSHING THE FRONT AND COLD AIR BACK NORTH. A RETURN TO A
MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY AS SNOW LEVELS
DROP TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. CLOUDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPECTED STARTING AROUND 03Z IN
SE OREGON AND 06Z IN SW IDAHO. EXPECT RAIN AT KBOI FROM 0730Z
THROUGH 19Z TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KMYL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...NW 25-35KT...
SUBSIDING TO NW 15-25KT MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO WNW 40-55KT
BY 06Z TUES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
     TUESDAY IDZ011.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 242144
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MOIST PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL WILL BE
SUFFICIENT IN THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY AROUND
MCCALL...TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SNOW. THIS ADVISORY RUNS FROM 03Z TONIGHT UNTIL 00Z WED. FOUR TO
EIGHT INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT MCCALL...WITH 8 TO 16 INCHES ABOVE
7000 FEET. ELSEWHERE...RAIN WILL FALL IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
BEGINNING THIS EVENING IN OREGON...AND BEGINNING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 3 AM MST IN SW IDAHO. THIS RAIN WILL LAST PAST RUSH-HOUR
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. TEMPS TUE WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHERE AND HOW LONG THE RAIN AND SNOW LAST. AT THIS
TIME...WE DECIDED TO STAY A LITTLE BELOW THE MODEL GUIDANCE AS WE
HAVE DONE FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE MOISTURE WILL MOVE OUT TO
THE EAST TUE NIGHT...LEAVING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NE CORNER OF THE
CWA...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM NE BAKER COUNTY...TO MCCALL...
TO FAIRFIELD. ON WED...A FLAT RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA...
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BUT LEAVING LOTS OF CLOUDS IN
THE NORTH. COMPARED TO TOMORROW...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES IN SE OREGON AND THE SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS...BUT REMAIN
LARGELY UNCHANGED ELSEWHERE. WITH THE INVERSION GONE...FREEZING
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD...HOWEVER...BE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
THAT EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON EXPOSED RIDGES LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE REGION WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S ON THURSDAY
IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY ALLOWING MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND. SNOW LEVEL REMAIN QUITE HIGH /ABOVE 5500 FEET/ THROUGH
MONDAY. MODELS SHOW COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FROM
CANADA REACHING NORTHEAST OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
MONDAY...PUSHING THE FRONT AND COLD AIR BACK NORTH. A RETURN TO A
MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY AS SNOW LEVELS
DROP TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. CLOUDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPECTED STARTING AROUND 03Z IN
SE OREGON AND 06Z IN SW IDAHO. EXPECT RAIN AT KBOI FROM 0730Z
THROUGH 19Z TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KMYL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...NW 25-35KT...
SUBSIDING TO NW 15-25KT MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO WNW 40-55KT
BY 06Z TUES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
     TUESDAY IDZ011.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS66 KMFR 241750
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
950 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE VALLEYS.
MORE CLOUDS FROM AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT ARE OFFSHORE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATER THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND RAP ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT HOLDING OFF ANY WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOST CONFINED TO WEST OF THE CASCADES.
THUS HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO
BETTER REFLECT THE TIMING. QPF AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD ALSO BE
LIGHT. EVEN THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES WILL PROBABLY GET LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH BY THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT STEADY
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140 AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS/VIS REMAIN IN THE ILLINOIS, ROGUE AND
SISKIYOU COUNTY VALLEYS AND IT COULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE BREAKING OUT. EVEN THEN IT MAY ONLY BE FOR A
BRIEF TIME. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS RETURN WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCUATIONS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE BASINS, INCLUDING KLMT. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 5 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. STEEP
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY...BUT THE FRONT WILL
BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.  SO...SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP WITH CHOPPY SEAS DEVELOPING
TODAY.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH SUBSIDE TONIGHT. OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD TUESDAY AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ONE FRIDAY. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THANKSGIVING TRAVELERS, WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH NO SNOWY ROADS EXCEPT POSSIBLY A
DUSTING IN THE DIAMOND AND CRATER LAKE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER A DRY BREAK WEDNESDAY, WE EXPECT WETTER WEATHER TO ARRIVE
BEGINNING THANKSGIVING DAY AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
ABOVE MAJOR MOUNTAIN PASS ROADWAYS THROUGH EARLY NEXT SUNDAY, BUT
THEN MAY START COMING DOWN. SNOW IMPACTS LOOK POSSIBLE PER THE
LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THE SNOW DEPTH AT CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK HEADQUARTERS
YESTERDAY MORNING WAS REPORTED TO BE 22 INCHES, WHICH IS 91.6% OF
THE 1931-2000 HISTORICAL AVERAGE. OVER THE NEXT WEEK WE ARE
EXPECTING A WARMING TREND THAT IS LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE THE SNOW
ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN AGAIN SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME
FRAME WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WARM AIR WILL OVERRUN THE COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE RESULTING IN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT ON AMOUNTS, EXTENT, AND
DURATION, BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE OREGON
CASCADES, COAST RANGE, COAST, AND UMPQUA BASIN. THESE AREAS MAY
GET A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF WATER, BUT MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TRACE OF RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AN INVERSION
OVER THE VALLEYS. HOW WARM IT WILL GET IN THE VALLEYS WILL DEPEND
ON HOW COOL IT GETS THE NIGHT BEFORE, WHICH WILL BE MODULATED BY
CLOUD COVER AND WIND. AS TIME GOES BY, THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IN
THE PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO DRAW AIR INTO IT RESULTING IN SOUTH AND
EAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THAT ARE LIKELY TO DISRUPT AND
EVENTUALLY MIX OUT VALLEY INVERSIONS. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME
HIGHS IN THE 55-65F RANGE FOR MOST VALLEYS, WHICH IS 5-15F ABOVE
NORMAL.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES, SLOWS, STALLS, AND THEN PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH SNOW LEVELS WITH
INCREASINGLY WET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS LIKELY TO
TRANSITION TO A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN AROUND THE LATE SUNDAY-
MONDAY TIME FRAME, WHEN SNOW LEVELS MAY REACH DOWN TO SOME OF THE
PRIMARY MOUNTAIN PASSES AND POSSIBLY THE EAST SIDE, AT TIMES. BTL


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 241750
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
950 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE VALLEYS.
MORE CLOUDS FROM AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT ARE OFFSHORE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATER THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND RAP ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT HOLDING OFF ANY WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOST CONFINED TO WEST OF THE CASCADES.
THUS HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO
BETTER REFLECT THE TIMING. QPF AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD ALSO BE
LIGHT. EVEN THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES WILL PROBABLY GET LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH BY THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT STEADY
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140 AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS/VIS REMAIN IN THE ILLINOIS, ROGUE AND
SISKIYOU COUNTY VALLEYS AND IT COULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE BREAKING OUT. EVEN THEN IT MAY ONLY BE FOR A
BRIEF TIME. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS RETURN WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCUATIONS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE BASINS, INCLUDING KLMT. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 5 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. STEEP
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY...BUT THE FRONT WILL
BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.  SO...SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP WITH CHOPPY SEAS DEVELOPING
TODAY.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH SUBSIDE TONIGHT. OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD TUESDAY AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ONE FRIDAY. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THANKSGIVING TRAVELERS, WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH NO SNOWY ROADS EXCEPT POSSIBLY A
DUSTING IN THE DIAMOND AND CRATER LAKE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER A DRY BREAK WEDNESDAY, WE EXPECT WETTER WEATHER TO ARRIVE
BEGINNING THANKSGIVING DAY AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
ABOVE MAJOR MOUNTAIN PASS ROADWAYS THROUGH EARLY NEXT SUNDAY, BUT
THEN MAY START COMING DOWN. SNOW IMPACTS LOOK POSSIBLE PER THE
LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THE SNOW DEPTH AT CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK HEADQUARTERS
YESTERDAY MORNING WAS REPORTED TO BE 22 INCHES, WHICH IS 91.6% OF
THE 1931-2000 HISTORICAL AVERAGE. OVER THE NEXT WEEK WE ARE
EXPECTING A WARMING TREND THAT IS LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE THE SNOW
ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN AGAIN SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME
FRAME WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WARM AIR WILL OVERRUN THE COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE RESULTING IN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT ON AMOUNTS, EXTENT, AND
DURATION, BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE OREGON
CASCADES, COAST RANGE, COAST, AND UMPQUA BASIN. THESE AREAS MAY
GET A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF WATER, BUT MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TRACE OF RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AN INVERSION
OVER THE VALLEYS. HOW WARM IT WILL GET IN THE VALLEYS WILL DEPEND
ON HOW COOL IT GETS THE NIGHT BEFORE, WHICH WILL BE MODULATED BY
CLOUD COVER AND WIND. AS TIME GOES BY, THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IN
THE PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO DRAW AIR INTO IT RESULTING IN SOUTH AND
EAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THAT ARE LIKELY TO DISRUPT AND
EVENTUALLY MIX OUT VALLEY INVERSIONS. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME
HIGHS IN THE 55-65F RANGE FOR MOST VALLEYS, WHICH IS 5-15F ABOVE
NORMAL.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES, SLOWS, STALLS, AND THEN PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH SNOW LEVELS WITH
INCREASINGLY WET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS LIKELY TO
TRANSITION TO A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN AROUND THE LATE SUNDAY-
MONDAY TIME FRAME, WHEN SNOW LEVELS MAY REACH DOWN TO SOME OF THE
PRIMARY MOUNTAIN PASSES AND POSSIBLY THE EAST SIDE, AT TIMES. BTL


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KPDT 241727 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
927 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STARTING LATE TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE
MAIN SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON...ESPECIALLY THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS
AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. THESE
AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND THE BASIN WILL SEE A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN
BETWEEN WITH HALF AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH. ALL THIS MEANS THAT AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL BE ON THE RISE. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS POINT ON THE MAIN RIVERS BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS FEEDING THE MAIN RIVERS FOR RAPID RISES OVERNIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE AROUND 5000 FEET
LATE TODAY BUT WILL RISE RAPIDLY TO AROUND 8000 FEET ON TUESDAY. THE
WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
WHICH WILL AID IN BOOSTING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW FROM 06Z-18Z TUESDAY.
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ENTER TAF SITES AFTER 3Z AND MAY PERSIST ON AND
OFF AT SOME TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.  EXPECT POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS CIGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5-15KTS. WEBER    WEBER
&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 440 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WARM FRONT. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD
OF RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND THIS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE CASCADES AND
ALSO THE BLUES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARM
AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH. THE MOISTURE STREAM WILL GET PUSHED
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL END. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT TODAY THEN INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE
BREEZY TO WINDY FOR MANY LOCATIONS.   94

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT A
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH BETWEEN 140-150W AND A SECOND
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASING POPS IN MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS COME
INTO PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER TO USHER IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC LIFT ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER FROM 5000-6000 FEET FRIDAY
TO 2000-4000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. OVER THE WEEKEND BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW MIXED WITH SOME
RAIN DURING DAYTIME HOURS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  44  57  44 /  10  60  60  10
ALW  51  45  57  47 /  10  70  60  10
PSC  50  43  56  46 /  10  60  20  10
YKM  45  37  52  39 /  10  50  10  10
HRI  51  44  58  45 /  10  60  20  10
ELN  46  36  50  38 /  10  60  20  30
RDM  48  39  58  34 /  10  20  10   0
LGD  44  40  50  37 /  10  90  80  30
GCD  44  38  51  33 /  10  50  30  20
DLS  51  44  58  43 /  10  60  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89







000
FXUS66 KPDT 241727 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
927 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STARTING LATE TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE
MAIN SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON...ESPECIALLY THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS
AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. THESE
AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND THE BASIN WILL SEE A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN
BETWEEN WITH HALF AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH. ALL THIS MEANS THAT AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL BE ON THE RISE. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS POINT ON THE MAIN RIVERS BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS FEEDING THE MAIN RIVERS FOR RAPID RISES OVERNIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE AROUND 5000 FEET
LATE TODAY BUT WILL RISE RAPIDLY TO AROUND 8000 FEET ON TUESDAY. THE
WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
WHICH WILL AID IN BOOSTING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW FROM 06Z-18Z TUESDAY.
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ENTER TAF SITES AFTER 3Z AND MAY PERSIST ON AND
OFF AT SOME TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.  EXPECT POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS CIGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5-15KTS. WEBER    WEBER
&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 440 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WARM FRONT. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD
OF RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND THIS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE CASCADES AND
ALSO THE BLUES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARM
AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH. THE MOISTURE STREAM WILL GET PUSHED
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL END. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT TODAY THEN INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE
BREEZY TO WINDY FOR MANY LOCATIONS.   94

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT A
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH BETWEEN 140-150W AND A SECOND
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASING POPS IN MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS COME
INTO PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER TO USHER IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC LIFT ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER FROM 5000-6000 FEET FRIDAY
TO 2000-4000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. OVER THE WEEKEND BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW MIXED WITH SOME
RAIN DURING DAYTIME HOURS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  44  57  44 /  10  60  60  10
ALW  51  45  57  47 /  10  70  60  10
PSC  50  43  56  46 /  10  60  20  10
YKM  45  37  52  39 /  10  50  10  10
HRI  51  44  58  45 /  10  60  20  10
ELN  46  36  50  38 /  10  60  20  30
RDM  48  39  58  34 /  10  20  10   0
LGD  44  40  50  37 /  10  90  80  30
GCD  44  38  51  33 /  10  50  30  20
DLS  51  44  58  43 /  10  60  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89






000
FXUS66 KPQR 241707
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
906 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
RAIN WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. A WARM FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FRONTAL BAND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO
DO SO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...NO APPRECIABLE RADAR
RETURNS SHOWING UP ON KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR AS OF 1630Z. AREAS
OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TODAY. CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND THICKEN THIS AFTEROON
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE TODAY APPEARS
TO BE OVER SW WA AND HAVE UPPED POPS THERE. A WARM FRONTAL BAROCLINC
ZONE AIDED BY A STRONG JET DEVELOPS OVER WRN WA AND EXTREME NW OREGON
TONIGHT. LATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES INDICATE 1 TO 1.25
INCHES WITH THIS FEATURE. HEAVIEST QPF TONIGHT WILL BE CENTERED ON
THE SW WA FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES. HAVE NUDGED THE 06Z-12Z QPF NUMBERS
UP A BIT MORE FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...UP TO NEARLY 2/3 OF AN INCH
IN THE 6-HOUR PERIOD WHICH MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
MOST ROBUST WITH QPF...INDICATING 1 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE SW WA
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS IN THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD AND OVER 2 INCHES IN THE
12Z-18Z PERIOD. THESE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE THOSE OF THE NAM AND
ECMWF. THE GFS DOES HAVE UPWARDS OF 40 KT WLY 850 MB FLOW INTO THE S
WA CASCADES WHICH WOULD GENERATE IMPRESSIVE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.
WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS TIME PERIOD IN MORE DETAIL FOR THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.

SNOW LEVELS RISE TO ABOVE 8000 FEET BY TONIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS GRADUALLY FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
NORTHWARD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SW WA AND THE EXTREME NRN OREGON
ZONES MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY WED...BUT AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
KTMK-KSLE LINE SHOULD BE DRY. 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 10C WED...BUT
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL TEMPER THE WARMING IN THOSE AREAS.
MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXPECTED FOR EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL REACH THE
COAST BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY...PUSHING INLAND THROUGH NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY..LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THANKSGIVING DAY AS A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TAKE THE
DEPARTING FRONTS PLACE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO CANADA. MODELS ARE HINTING ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN OREGON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP JUST OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...BRINGING BREEZY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /27

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS AND VISIBILITY HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR SOUTH OF
SALEM THIS MORNING. THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
NORTH OF SALEM SHOULD IMPROVE THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SPOTTY AREAS OF FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING.
ESPECIALLY WHERE THE WINDS ARE CALM LIKE KHIO...KVUO...AND KMMV.
AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE COAST AROUND
NOON...ALTHOUGH THE NORTH COAST WILL CONTINUE MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PERIODIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAIN. MVFR CIGS AND
RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AD INTO TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BECOMING A
FRONT LOWERS CONDITIONS TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT AROUND NOON. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WITH THE FRONT
PASSAGE...MAINLY WITHIN 20 NM BETWEEN 3 AND 7 PM. THE WINDS WILL
EASE BELOW 25 KT AND VEER TO THE SW TONIGHT. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT. THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT
MAY GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES WED OR WED NIGHT.

A WEST SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WIND WAVES INCREASE IN HEIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
COMBINED SEAS AROUND 10 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT MAY HOLD ON NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD INTO WED MORNING DUE
TO THE LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BUILDING WITH THE NEXT
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 241707
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
906 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
RAIN WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. A WARM FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FRONTAL BAND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO
DO SO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...NO APPRECIABLE RADAR
RETURNS SHOWING UP ON KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR AS OF 1630Z. AREAS
OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TODAY. CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND THICKEN THIS AFTEROON
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE TODAY APPEARS
TO BE OVER SW WA AND HAVE UPPED POPS THERE. A WARM FRONTAL BAROCLINC
ZONE AIDED BY A STRONG JET DEVELOPS OVER WRN WA AND EXTREME NW OREGON
TONIGHT. LATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES INDICATE 1 TO 1.25
INCHES WITH THIS FEATURE. HEAVIEST QPF TONIGHT WILL BE CENTERED ON
THE SW WA FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES. HAVE NUDGED THE 06Z-12Z QPF NUMBERS
UP A BIT MORE FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...UP TO NEARLY 2/3 OF AN INCH
IN THE 6-HOUR PERIOD WHICH MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
MOST ROBUST WITH QPF...INDICATING 1 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE SW WA
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS IN THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD AND OVER 2 INCHES IN THE
12Z-18Z PERIOD. THESE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE THOSE OF THE NAM AND
ECMWF. THE GFS DOES HAVE UPWARDS OF 40 KT WLY 850 MB FLOW INTO THE S
WA CASCADES WHICH WOULD GENERATE IMPRESSIVE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.
WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS TIME PERIOD IN MORE DETAIL FOR THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.

SNOW LEVELS RISE TO ABOVE 8000 FEET BY TONIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS GRADUALLY FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
NORTHWARD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SW WA AND THE EXTREME NRN OREGON
ZONES MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY WED...BUT AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
KTMK-KSLE LINE SHOULD BE DRY. 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 10C WED...BUT
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL TEMPER THE WARMING IN THOSE AREAS.
MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXPECTED FOR EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL REACH THE
COAST BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY...PUSHING INLAND THROUGH NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY..LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THANKSGIVING DAY AS A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TAKE THE
DEPARTING FRONTS PLACE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO CANADA. MODELS ARE HINTING ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN OREGON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP JUST OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...BRINGING BREEZY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /27

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS AND VISIBILITY HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR SOUTH OF
SALEM THIS MORNING. THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
NORTH OF SALEM SHOULD IMPROVE THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SPOTTY AREAS OF FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING.
ESPECIALLY WHERE THE WINDS ARE CALM LIKE KHIO...KVUO...AND KMMV.
AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE COAST AROUND
NOON...ALTHOUGH THE NORTH COAST WILL CONTINUE MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PERIODIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAIN. MVFR CIGS AND
RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AD INTO TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BECOMING A
FRONT LOWERS CONDITIONS TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT AROUND NOON. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WITH THE FRONT
PASSAGE...MAINLY WITHIN 20 NM BETWEEN 3 AND 7 PM. THE WINDS WILL
EASE BELOW 25 KT AND VEER TO THE SW TONIGHT. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT. THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT
MAY GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES WED OR WED NIGHT.

A WEST SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WIND WAVES INCREASE IN HEIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
COMBINED SEAS AROUND 10 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT MAY HOLD ON NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD INTO WED MORNING DUE
TO THE LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BUILDING WITH THE NEXT
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 241707
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
906 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
RAIN WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. A WARM FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FRONTAL BAND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO
DO SO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...NO APPRECIABLE RADAR
RETURNS SHOWING UP ON KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR AS OF 1630Z. AREAS
OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TODAY. CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND THICKEN THIS AFTEROON
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE TODAY APPEARS
TO BE OVER SW WA AND HAVE UPPED POPS THERE. A WARM FRONTAL BAROCLINC
ZONE AIDED BY A STRONG JET DEVELOPS OVER WRN WA AND EXTREME NW OREGON
TONIGHT. LATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES INDICATE 1 TO 1.25
INCHES WITH THIS FEATURE. HEAVIEST QPF TONIGHT WILL BE CENTERED ON
THE SW WA FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES. HAVE NUDGED THE 06Z-12Z QPF NUMBERS
UP A BIT MORE FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...UP TO NEARLY 2/3 OF AN INCH
IN THE 6-HOUR PERIOD WHICH MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
MOST ROBUST WITH QPF...INDICATING 1 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE SW WA
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS IN THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD AND OVER 2 INCHES IN THE
12Z-18Z PERIOD. THESE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE THOSE OF THE NAM AND
ECMWF. THE GFS DOES HAVE UPWARDS OF 40 KT WLY 850 MB FLOW INTO THE S
WA CASCADES WHICH WOULD GENERATE IMPRESSIVE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.
WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS TIME PERIOD IN MORE DETAIL FOR THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.

SNOW LEVELS RISE TO ABOVE 8000 FEET BY TONIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS GRADUALLY FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
NORTHWARD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SW WA AND THE EXTREME NRN OREGON
ZONES MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY WED...BUT AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
KTMK-KSLE LINE SHOULD BE DRY. 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 10C WED...BUT
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL TEMPER THE WARMING IN THOSE AREAS.
MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXPECTED FOR EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL REACH THE
COAST BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY...PUSHING INLAND THROUGH NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY..LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THANKSGIVING DAY AS A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TAKE THE
DEPARTING FRONTS PLACE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO CANADA. MODELS ARE HINTING ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN OREGON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP JUST OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...BRINGING BREEZY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /27

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS AND VISIBILITY HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR SOUTH OF
SALEM THIS MORNING. THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
NORTH OF SALEM SHOULD IMPROVE THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SPOTTY AREAS OF FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING.
ESPECIALLY WHERE THE WINDS ARE CALM LIKE KHIO...KVUO...AND KMMV.
AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE COAST AROUND
NOON...ALTHOUGH THE NORTH COAST WILL CONTINUE MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PERIODIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAIN. MVFR CIGS AND
RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AD INTO TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BECOMING A
FRONT LOWERS CONDITIONS TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT AROUND NOON. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WITH THE FRONT
PASSAGE...MAINLY WITHIN 20 NM BETWEEN 3 AND 7 PM. THE WINDS WILL
EASE BELOW 25 KT AND VEER TO THE SW TONIGHT. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT. THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT
MAY GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES WED OR WED NIGHT.

A WEST SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WIND WAVES INCREASE IN HEIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
COMBINED SEAS AROUND 10 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT MAY HOLD ON NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD INTO WED MORNING DUE
TO THE LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BUILDING WITH THE NEXT
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 241707
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
906 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
RAIN WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. A WARM FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FRONTAL BAND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO
DO SO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...NO APPRECIABLE RADAR
RETURNS SHOWING UP ON KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR AS OF 1630Z. AREAS
OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TODAY. CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND THICKEN THIS AFTEROON
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE TODAY APPEARS
TO BE OVER SW WA AND HAVE UPPED POPS THERE. A WARM FRONTAL BAROCLINC
ZONE AIDED BY A STRONG JET DEVELOPS OVER WRN WA AND EXTREME NW OREGON
TONIGHT. LATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES INDICATE 1 TO 1.25
INCHES WITH THIS FEATURE. HEAVIEST QPF TONIGHT WILL BE CENTERED ON
THE SW WA FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES. HAVE NUDGED THE 06Z-12Z QPF NUMBERS
UP A BIT MORE FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...UP TO NEARLY 2/3 OF AN INCH
IN THE 6-HOUR PERIOD WHICH MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
MOST ROBUST WITH QPF...INDICATING 1 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE SW WA
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS IN THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD AND OVER 2 INCHES IN THE
12Z-18Z PERIOD. THESE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE THOSE OF THE NAM AND
ECMWF. THE GFS DOES HAVE UPWARDS OF 40 KT WLY 850 MB FLOW INTO THE S
WA CASCADES WHICH WOULD GENERATE IMPRESSIVE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.
WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS TIME PERIOD IN MORE DETAIL FOR THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.

SNOW LEVELS RISE TO ABOVE 8000 FEET BY TONIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS GRADUALLY FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
NORTHWARD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SW WA AND THE EXTREME NRN OREGON
ZONES MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY WED...BUT AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
KTMK-KSLE LINE SHOULD BE DRY. 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 10C WED...BUT
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL TEMPER THE WARMING IN THOSE AREAS.
MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXPECTED FOR EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL REACH THE
COAST BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY...PUSHING INLAND THROUGH NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY..LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THANKSGIVING DAY AS A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TAKE THE
DEPARTING FRONTS PLACE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO CANADA. MODELS ARE HINTING ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN OREGON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP JUST OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...BRINGING BREEZY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /27

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS AND VISIBILITY HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR SOUTH OF
SALEM THIS MORNING. THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
NORTH OF SALEM SHOULD IMPROVE THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SPOTTY AREAS OF FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING.
ESPECIALLY WHERE THE WINDS ARE CALM LIKE KHIO...KVUO...AND KMMV.
AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE COAST AROUND
NOON...ALTHOUGH THE NORTH COAST WILL CONTINUE MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PERIODIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAIN. MVFR CIGS AND
RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AD INTO TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BECOMING A
FRONT LOWERS CONDITIONS TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT AROUND NOON. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WITH THE FRONT
PASSAGE...MAINLY WITHIN 20 NM BETWEEN 3 AND 7 PM. THE WINDS WILL
EASE BELOW 25 KT AND VEER TO THE SW TONIGHT. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT. THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT
MAY GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES WED OR WED NIGHT.

A WEST SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WIND WAVES INCREASE IN HEIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
COMBINED SEAS AROUND 10 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT MAY HOLD ON NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD INTO WED MORNING DUE
TO THE LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BUILDING WITH THE NEXT
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 241701
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
900 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STARTING LATE TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE
MAIN SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON...ESPECIALLY THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS
AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. THESE
AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND THE BASIN WILL SEE A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN
BETWEEN WITH HALF AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH. ALL THIS MEANS THAT AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL BE ON THE RISE. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS POINT ON THE MAIN RIVERS BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS FEEDING THE MAIN RIVERS FOR RAPID RISES OVERNIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE AROUND 5000 FEET
LATE TODAY BUT WILL RISE RAPIDLY TO AROUND 8000 FEET ON TUESDAY. THE
WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
WHICH WILL AID IN BOOSTING TEMPERATURES.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 440 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WARM FRONT. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD
OF RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND THIS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE CASCADES AND
ALSO THE BLUES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARM
AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH. THE MOISTURE STREAM WILL GET PUSHED
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL END. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT TODAY THEN INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE
BREEZY TO WINDY FOR MANY LOCATIONS.   94

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT A
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH BETWEEN 140-150W AND A SECOND
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASING POPS IN MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS COME
INTO PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER TO USHER IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC LIFT ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER FROM 5000-6000 FEET FRIDAY
TO 2000-4000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. OVER THE WEEKEND BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW MIXED WITH SOME
RAIN DURING DAYTIME HOURS.  POLAN

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR MIST TO FORM FROM 12Z THROUGH 17Z THIS MORNING AT A FEW TAF
SITES. DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE MARGINAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR, THEREFORE
HAVE ONLY FEW OR SCT LOW CLOUDS IN A FEW TAFS. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY
BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z/25TH
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA WITH A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK 4-8K
FT AGL AND -SHRA BECOMING POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AOB
10 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 25/00Z. AFTER 25/00Z WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT MOST TAF SITES.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  44  57  44 /  10  60  60  10
ALW  51  45  57  47 /  10  70  60  10
PSC  50  43  56  46 /  10  60  20  10
YKM  45  37  52  39 /  10  50  10  10
HRI  51  44  58  45 /  10  60  20  10
ELN  46  36  50  38 /  10  60  20  30
RDM  48  39  58  34 /  10  20  10   0
LGD  44  40  50  37 /  10  90  80  30
GCD  44  38  51  33 /  10  50  30  20
DLS  51  44  58  43 /  10  60  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89








000
FXUS66 KPDT 241701
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
900 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STARTING LATE TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE
MAIN SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON...ESPECIALLY THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS
AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. THESE
AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND THE BASIN WILL SEE A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN
BETWEEN WITH HALF AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH. ALL THIS MEANS THAT AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL BE ON THE RISE. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS POINT ON THE MAIN RIVERS BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS FEEDING THE MAIN RIVERS FOR RAPID RISES OVERNIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE AROUND 5000 FEET
LATE TODAY BUT WILL RISE RAPIDLY TO AROUND 8000 FEET ON TUESDAY. THE
WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
WHICH WILL AID IN BOOSTING TEMPERATURES.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 440 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WARM FRONT. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD
OF RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND THIS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE CASCADES AND
ALSO THE BLUES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARM
AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH. THE MOISTURE STREAM WILL GET PUSHED
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL END. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT TODAY THEN INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE
BREEZY TO WINDY FOR MANY LOCATIONS.   94

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT A
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH BETWEEN 140-150W AND A SECOND
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASING POPS IN MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS COME
INTO PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER TO USHER IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC LIFT ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER FROM 5000-6000 FEET FRIDAY
TO 2000-4000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. OVER THE WEEKEND BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW MIXED WITH SOME
RAIN DURING DAYTIME HOURS.  POLAN

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR MIST TO FORM FROM 12Z THROUGH 17Z THIS MORNING AT A FEW TAF
SITES. DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE MARGINAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR, THEREFORE
HAVE ONLY FEW OR SCT LOW CLOUDS IN A FEW TAFS. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY
BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z/25TH
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA WITH A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK 4-8K
FT AGL AND -SHRA BECOMING POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AOB
10 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 25/00Z. AFTER 25/00Z WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT MOST TAF SITES.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  44  57  44 /  10  60  60  10
ALW  51  45  57  47 /  10  70  60  10
PSC  50  43  56  46 /  10  60  20  10
YKM  45  37  52  39 /  10  50  10  10
HRI  51  44  58  45 /  10  60  20  10
ELN  46  36  50  38 /  10  60  20  30
RDM  48  39  58  34 /  10  20  10   0
LGD  44  40  50  37 /  10  90  80  30
GCD  44  38  51  33 /  10  50  30  20
DLS  51  44  58  43 /  10  60  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89









000
FXUS65 KBOI 241654
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
954 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. NEXT SYSTEM
STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE IN TONIGHT...SPREADING HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS
AND VALLEY RAIN INTO TUESDAY. ONE CONCERN IS FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EXTREME LOWER TREASURE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH TODAY AND
THEN CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO LOCK IN THAT
WARMTH. THE RESULT IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WILL ANALYZE THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW
MODEL GUIDANCE AND MAKE A FINAL CALL ON THAT IN THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST. NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. CLOUDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY RAIN
IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. EXPECT RAIN
AT KBOI FROM 08Z THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW AT KMYL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...NW 25-35KT
...SUBSIDING TO NW 15-25KT MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO WNW 40-
55KT BY 06Z TUES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE ENDING THIS MORNING AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE TO THE EAST. THERE WILL BE A DRY PERIOD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE WEST. THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RAPIDLY MOISTEN
UP THIS EVENING AS A MOIST PACIFIC PLUME RIDES THE CREST OF THE
RIDGE AND ENTERS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS HAVE INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP ESPECIALLY ACROSS BAKER COUNTY AND IN THE BOISE/WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL W-NW
WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL BE AN ALL-
SNOW EVENT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF
2-4 INCHES EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS /INCLUDING MCCALL AND
IDAHO CITY/ AND 4-8 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
CONSIDERABLY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. VALLEYS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...CHANGING
TO ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MOIST FLOW ALONG A
WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AFTER FRIDAY
ALLOWING MOIST ZONAL FLOW TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A RETURN TO A MORE WINTER LIKE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND BEYOND AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 241654
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
954 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. NEXT SYSTEM
STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE IN TONIGHT...SPREADING HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS
AND VALLEY RAIN INTO TUESDAY. ONE CONCERN IS FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EXTREME LOWER TREASURE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH TODAY AND
THEN CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO LOCK IN THAT
WARMTH. THE RESULT IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WILL ANALYZE THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW
MODEL GUIDANCE AND MAKE A FINAL CALL ON THAT IN THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST. NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. CLOUDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY RAIN
IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. EXPECT RAIN
AT KBOI FROM 08Z THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW AT KMYL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...NW 25-35KT
...SUBSIDING TO NW 15-25KT MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO WNW 40-
55KT BY 06Z TUES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE ENDING THIS MORNING AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE TO THE EAST. THERE WILL BE A DRY PERIOD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE WEST. THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RAPIDLY MOISTEN
UP THIS EVENING AS A MOIST PACIFIC PLUME RIDES THE CREST OF THE
RIDGE AND ENTERS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS HAVE INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP ESPECIALLY ACROSS BAKER COUNTY AND IN THE BOISE/WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL W-NW
WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL BE AN ALL-
SNOW EVENT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF
2-4 INCHES EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS /INCLUDING MCCALL AND
IDAHO CITY/ AND 4-8 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
CONSIDERABLY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. VALLEYS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...CHANGING
TO ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MOIST FLOW ALONG A
WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AFTER FRIDAY
ALLOWING MOIST ZONAL FLOW TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A RETURN TO A MORE WINTER LIKE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND BEYOND AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS66 KPDT 241242 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
440 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WARM FRONT. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD
OF RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND THIS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE CASCADES AND
ALSO THE BLUES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARM
AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH. THE MOISTURE STREAM WILL GET PUSHED
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL END. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT TODAY THEN INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE
BREEZY TO WINDY FOR MANY LOCATIONS.   94

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT A
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH BETWEEN 140-150W AND A SECOND
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASING POPS IN MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS COME
INTO PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER TO USHER IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC LIFT ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER FROM 5000-6000 FEET FRIDAY
TO 2000-4000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. OVER THE WEEKEND BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW MIXED WITH SOME
RAIN DURING DAYTIME HOURS.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR MIST TO FORM FROM 12Z THROUGH 17Z THIS MORNING AT A FEW TAF
SITES. DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE MARGINAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR, THEREFORE
HAVE ONLY FEW OR SCT LOW CLOUDS IN A FEW TAFS. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY
BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z/25TH
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA WITH A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK 4-8K
FT AGL AND -SHRA BECOMING POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AOB
10 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 25/00Z. AFTER 25/00Z WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT MOST TAF SITES.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  43  58  44 /  10  40  30  10
ALW  53  44  58  47 /  10  40  40  10
PSC  51  41  57  46 /  10  40  30  10
YKM  46  37  52  39 /  10  40  30  10
HRI  54  43  59  45 /  10  40  30  10
ELN  45  35  50  38 /  10  50  40  30
RDM  50  40  59  34 /  10  30  20   0
LGD  46  42  51  37 /  10  60  60  30
GCD  47  34  53  33 /  10  40  30  20
DLS  50  42  56  43 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/99/99






000
FXUS66 KPDT 241242 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
440 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WARM FRONT. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD
OF RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND THIS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE CASCADES AND
ALSO THE BLUES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARM
AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH. THE MOISTURE STREAM WILL GET PUSHED
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL END. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT TODAY THEN INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE
BREEZY TO WINDY FOR MANY LOCATIONS.   94

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT A
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH BETWEEN 140-150W AND A SECOND
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASING POPS IN MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS COME
INTO PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER TO USHER IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC LIFT ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER FROM 5000-6000 FEET FRIDAY
TO 2000-4000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. OVER THE WEEKEND BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW MIXED WITH SOME
RAIN DURING DAYTIME HOURS.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR MIST TO FORM FROM 12Z THROUGH 17Z THIS MORNING AT A FEW TAF
SITES. DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE MARGINAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR, THEREFORE
HAVE ONLY FEW OR SCT LOW CLOUDS IN A FEW TAFS. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY
BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z/25TH
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA WITH A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK 4-8K
FT AGL AND -SHRA BECOMING POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AOB
10 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 25/00Z. AFTER 25/00Z WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT MOST TAF SITES.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  43  58  44 /  10  40  30  10
ALW  53  44  58  47 /  10  40  40  10
PSC  51  41  57  46 /  10  40  30  10
YKM  46  37  52  39 /  10  40  30  10
HRI  54  43  59  45 /  10  40  30  10
ELN  45  35  50  38 /  10  50  40  30
RDM  50  40  59  34 /  10  30  20   0
LGD  46  42  51  37 /  10  60  60  30
GCD  47  34  53  33 /  10  40  30  20
DLS  50  42  56  43 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/99/99







000
FXUS66 KMFR 241133
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
333 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THANKSGIVING TRAVELERS, WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH NO SNOWY ROADS EXCEPT POSSIBLY A
DUSTING IN THE DIAMOND AND CRATER LAKE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER A DRY BREAK WEDNESDAY, WE EXPECT WETTER WEATHER TO ARRIVE
BEGINNING THANKSGIVING DAY AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
ABOVE MAJOR MOUNTAIN PASS ROADWAYS THROUGH EARLY NEXT SUNDAY, BUT
THEN MAY START COMING DOWN. SNOW IMPACTS LOOK POSSIBLE PER THE
LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THE SNOW DEPTH AT CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK HEADQUARTERS
YESTERDAY MORNING WAS REPORTED TO BE 22 INCHES, WHICH IS 91.6% OF
THE 1931-2000 HISTORICAL AVERAGE. OVER THE NEXT WEEK WE ARE
EXPECTING A WARMING TREND THAT IS LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE THE SNOW
ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN AGAIN SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME
FRAME WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WARM AIR WILL OVERRUN THE COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE RESULTING IN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT ON AMOUNTS, EXTENT, AND
DURATION, BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE OREGON
CASCADES, COAST RANGE, COAST, AND UMPQUA BASIN. THESE AREAS MAY
GET A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF WATER, BUT MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TRACE OF RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AN INVERSION
OVER THE VALLEYS. HOW WARM IT WILL GET IN THE VALLEYS WILL DEPEND
ON HOW COOL IT GETS THE NIGHT BEFORE, WHICH WILL BE MODULATED BY
CLOUD COVER AND WIND. AS TIME GOES BY, THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IN
THE PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO DRAW AIR INTO IT RESULTING IN SOUTH AND
EAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THAT ARE LIKELY TO DISRUPT AND
EVENTUALLY MIX OUT VALLEY INVERSIONS. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME
HIGHS IN THE 55-65F RANGE FOR MOST VALLEYS, WHICH IS 5-15F ABOVE
NORMAL.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES, SLOWS, STALLS, AND THEN PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH SNOW LEVELS WITH
INCREASINGLY WET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS LIKELY TO
TRANSITION TO A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN AROUND THE LATE SUNDAY-
MONDAY TIME FRAME, WHEN SNOW LEVELS MAY REACH DOWN TO SOME OF THE
PRIMARY MOUNTAIN PASSES AND POSSIBLY THE EAST SIDE, AT TIMES. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/06Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT AREAS OF IFR
CIGS/VIS IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP. AREAS
WITH LOWER CIGS/VIS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN NEAR 4-5KFT ABOVE SEA LEVEL.
EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECT VFR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
MORNING, THEN SPREAD INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS NORTH OF THE CA/OR BORDER WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 245 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD TUESDAY AND WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE FRIDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM PST THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BTL/CC/MAS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 241133
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
333 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THANKSGIVING TRAVELERS, WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH NO SNOWY ROADS EXCEPT POSSIBLY A
DUSTING IN THE DIAMOND AND CRATER LAKE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER A DRY BREAK WEDNESDAY, WE EXPECT WETTER WEATHER TO ARRIVE
BEGINNING THANKSGIVING DAY AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
ABOVE MAJOR MOUNTAIN PASS ROADWAYS THROUGH EARLY NEXT SUNDAY, BUT
THEN MAY START COMING DOWN. SNOW IMPACTS LOOK POSSIBLE PER THE
LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THE SNOW DEPTH AT CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK HEADQUARTERS
YESTERDAY MORNING WAS REPORTED TO BE 22 INCHES, WHICH IS 91.6% OF
THE 1931-2000 HISTORICAL AVERAGE. OVER THE NEXT WEEK WE ARE
EXPECTING A WARMING TREND THAT IS LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE THE SNOW
ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN AGAIN SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME
FRAME WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WARM AIR WILL OVERRUN THE COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE RESULTING IN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT ON AMOUNTS, EXTENT, AND
DURATION, BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE OREGON
CASCADES, COAST RANGE, COAST, AND UMPQUA BASIN. THESE AREAS MAY
GET A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF WATER, BUT MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TRACE OF RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AN INVERSION
OVER THE VALLEYS. HOW WARM IT WILL GET IN THE VALLEYS WILL DEPEND
ON HOW COOL IT GETS THE NIGHT BEFORE, WHICH WILL BE MODULATED BY
CLOUD COVER AND WIND. AS TIME GOES BY, THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IN
THE PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO DRAW AIR INTO IT RESULTING IN SOUTH AND
EAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THAT ARE LIKELY TO DISRUPT AND
EVENTUALLY MIX OUT VALLEY INVERSIONS. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME
HIGHS IN THE 55-65F RANGE FOR MOST VALLEYS, WHICH IS 5-15F ABOVE
NORMAL.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES, SLOWS, STALLS, AND THEN PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH SNOW LEVELS WITH
INCREASINGLY WET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS LIKELY TO
TRANSITION TO A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN AROUND THE LATE SUNDAY-
MONDAY TIME FRAME, WHEN SNOW LEVELS MAY REACH DOWN TO SOME OF THE
PRIMARY MOUNTAIN PASSES AND POSSIBLY THE EAST SIDE, AT TIMES. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/06Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT AREAS OF IFR
CIGS/VIS IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP. AREAS
WITH LOWER CIGS/VIS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN NEAR 4-5KFT ABOVE SEA LEVEL.
EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECT VFR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
MORNING, THEN SPREAD INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS NORTH OF THE CA/OR BORDER WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 245 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD TUESDAY AND WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE FRIDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM PST THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BTL/CC/MAS



000
FXUS66 KPDT 241100
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WARM FRONT. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD
OF RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND THIS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE CASCADES AND
ALSO THE BLUES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARM
AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH. THE MOISTURE STREAM WILL GET PUSHED
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL END. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT TODAY THEN INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE
BREEZY TO WINDY FOR MANY LOCATIONS.   94

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT A
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH BETWEEN 140-150W AND A SECOND
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASING POPS IN MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS COME
INTO PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER TO USHER IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC LIFT ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER FROM 5000-6000 FEET FRIDAY
TO 2000-4000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. OVER THE WEEKEND BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW MIXED WITH SOME
RAIN DURING DAYTIME HOURS.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...KEPT ALL TAF SITES WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR MIST TO FORM MAINLY AFTER
24/9-12Z THROUGH 24/18Z AT SEVERAL TAF SITES. ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...THEREFORE FOR THE TIME BEING
INTRODUCED ONLY FEW OR SCT LOW CLOUDS TO THE AFFECTED TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER 25/00Z ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA WITH A
MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4-8KFT AGL AND -SHRA BECOMING POSSIBLE.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE BELOW 10KTS AT KPDT BY 24/12Z AND ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AOB 10KTS AT ALL OTHER TAF STATIONS THROUGH
25/00Z. AFTER 25/00Z WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT MOST TAF SITES. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  43  58  44 /  10  40  30  10
ALW  53  44  58  47 /  10  40  40  10
PSC  51  41  57  46 /  10  40  30  10
YKM  46  37  52  39 /  10  40  30  10
HRI  54  43  59  45 /  10  40  30  10
ELN  45  35  50  38 /  10  50  40  30
RDM  50  40  59  34 /  10  30  20   0
LGD  46  42  51  37 /  10  60  60  30
GCD  47  34  53  33 /  10  40  30  20
DLS  50  42  56  43 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/99/99








000
FXUS66 KPDT 241100
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WARM FRONT. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD
OF RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND THIS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE CASCADES AND
ALSO THE BLUES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARM
AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH. THE MOISTURE STREAM WILL GET PUSHED
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL END. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT TODAY THEN INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE
BREEZY TO WINDY FOR MANY LOCATIONS.   94

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT A
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH BETWEEN 140-150W AND A SECOND
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASING POPS IN MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS COME
INTO PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER TO USHER IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC LIFT ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER FROM 5000-6000 FEET FRIDAY
TO 2000-4000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. OVER THE WEEKEND BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW MIXED WITH SOME
RAIN DURING DAYTIME HOURS.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...KEPT ALL TAF SITES WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR MIST TO FORM MAINLY AFTER
24/9-12Z THROUGH 24/18Z AT SEVERAL TAF SITES. ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...THEREFORE FOR THE TIME BEING
INTRODUCED ONLY FEW OR SCT LOW CLOUDS TO THE AFFECTED TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER 25/00Z ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA WITH A
MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4-8KFT AGL AND -SHRA BECOMING POSSIBLE.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE BELOW 10KTS AT KPDT BY 24/12Z AND ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AOB 10KTS AT ALL OTHER TAF STATIONS THROUGH
25/00Z. AFTER 25/00Z WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT MOST TAF SITES. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  43  58  44 /  10  40  30  10
ALW  53  44  58  47 /  10  40  40  10
PSC  51  41  57  46 /  10  40  30  10
YKM  46  37  52  39 /  10  40  30  10
HRI  54  43  59  45 /  10  40  30  10
ELN  45  35  50  38 /  10  50  40  30
RDM  50  40  59  34 /  10  30  20   0
LGD  46  42  51  37 /  10  60  60  30
GCD  47  34  53  33 /  10  40  30  20
DLS  50  42  56  43 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/99/99









000
FXUS66 KPQR 241054
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
254 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THIS
MORNING...BUT A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE RAIN WITH RISING
SNOW LEVELS TO THE DISTRICT BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHILE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
DRY OUT. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL SHOWERS HAVE
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AND COAST RANGE AS SEEN ON KRTX RADAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS AND LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST. STILL NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BECOME DENSE...BUT SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS OF DENSE FOG
ARE MORE LIKELY. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BURN OFF BY 10-11AM
PST THIS MORNING...DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

ANOTHER VORTMAX IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING... WITH THE 06Z GFS AND NAM SHOWING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
QPF OVER SW WASHINGTON AS IT TAPS INTO A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER.
HAVE UPPED QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES IN
PARTICULAR...WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE
RISEN ABOVE 6000 FT BY THAT POINT.

BY THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE DOMINANT SALEM SOUTHWARD...
WITH SOME FOG FORMING TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING IN THE VALLEYS. DESPITE
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS ALOFT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS UPWARDS OF
+10 DEG C WED...THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE STUCK IN A BIT OF AN
INVERSION THUS LIMITING TEMPS SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR WED
AFTERNOON WILL BE TRICKY AS A RESULT. IT DOES APPEAR WED WILL BE DRY
FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT AS UPPER RIDGING TAKES CHARGE.

MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXPECTED FOR EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL REACH THE
COAST BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY...PUSHING INLAND THROUGH NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WEAGLE/27

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY..LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING DAY AS A PACIFIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND
DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TAKE THE DEPARTING FRONTS PLACE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO CANADA.
MODELS ARE HINTING ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN
OREGON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP JUST OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...BRINGING BREEZY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /27

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE KEEPING AREAS MVFR
WILL OCCASIONAL IFR THIS MORNING. WIND IS KEEPING KEUG AND KSLE VFR
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THIS WIND MAY
PUSH NORTHWARD WITH TIME THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD CLEAR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS. THIS COULD LIFT CIGS AND VISIBILITY TO VFR
ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BY 18-21Z. COASTAL SITES ARE
REMAINING VFR CURRENTLY...THOUGH CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG TO
DEVELOP SOON. EXPECT THESE SITES TO DEVELOP MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND LIKELY WILL NOT CLEAR
UNTIL WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 15-18Z.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
00Z...WHICH COULD BRING CIGS AND VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR THIS
EVENING WITH RAIN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOW STRATUS KEEPING CIGS MVFR THIS MORNING.
LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO CLEAR OUT AROUND 16-18Z THIS MORNING BEFORE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL LIKELY BRING
CIGS BACK DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AROUND 00Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY...BRINGING
SOUTHERLY WINDS BACK ABOVE 20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT LATER THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE AND
WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 FT
TODAY...ONLY DROPPING BELOW 10 FT EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH OUR WATERS ON
TUESDAY...WHICH COULD BRING WINDS AND SEAS BACK UP TO SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. AS OF NOW...THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN
WATERS...THOUGH SOUTHERN WATERS LOOK TO GET CLOSE TO 10 FT SEAS. SEAS
DROP BACK BELOW 10 FT ON WEDNESDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BRINGS
ANOTHER FRONT IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY WHICH AS OF NOW LOOKS TO
AGAIN INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
     PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
    FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
    PST TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 241054
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
254 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THIS
MORNING...BUT A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE RAIN WITH RISING
SNOW LEVELS TO THE DISTRICT BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHILE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
DRY OUT. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL SHOWERS HAVE
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AND COAST RANGE AS SEEN ON KRTX RADAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS AND LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST. STILL NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BECOME DENSE...BUT SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS OF DENSE FOG
ARE MORE LIKELY. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BURN OFF BY 10-11AM
PST THIS MORNING...DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

ANOTHER VORTMAX IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING... WITH THE 06Z GFS AND NAM SHOWING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
QPF OVER SW WASHINGTON AS IT TAPS INTO A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER.
HAVE UPPED QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES IN
PARTICULAR...WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE
RISEN ABOVE 6000 FT BY THAT POINT.

BY THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE DOMINANT SALEM SOUTHWARD...
WITH SOME FOG FORMING TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING IN THE VALLEYS. DESPITE
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS ALOFT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS UPWARDS OF
+10 DEG C WED...THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE STUCK IN A BIT OF AN
INVERSION THUS LIMITING TEMPS SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR WED
AFTERNOON WILL BE TRICKY AS A RESULT. IT DOES APPEAR WED WILL BE DRY
FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT AS UPPER RIDGING TAKES CHARGE.

MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXPECTED FOR EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL REACH THE
COAST BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY...PUSHING INLAND THROUGH NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WEAGLE/27

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY..LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING DAY AS A PACIFIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND
DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TAKE THE DEPARTING FRONTS PLACE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO CANADA.
MODELS ARE HINTING ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN
OREGON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP JUST OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...BRINGING BREEZY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /27

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE KEEPING AREAS MVFR
WILL OCCASIONAL IFR THIS MORNING. WIND IS KEEPING KEUG AND KSLE VFR
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THIS WIND MAY
PUSH NORTHWARD WITH TIME THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD CLEAR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS. THIS COULD LIFT CIGS AND VISIBILITY TO VFR
ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BY 18-21Z. COASTAL SITES ARE
REMAINING VFR CURRENTLY...THOUGH CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG TO
DEVELOP SOON. EXPECT THESE SITES TO DEVELOP MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND LIKELY WILL NOT CLEAR
UNTIL WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 15-18Z.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
00Z...WHICH COULD BRING CIGS AND VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR THIS
EVENING WITH RAIN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOW STRATUS KEEPING CIGS MVFR THIS MORNING.
LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO CLEAR OUT AROUND 16-18Z THIS MORNING BEFORE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL LIKELY BRING
CIGS BACK DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AROUND 00Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY...BRINGING
SOUTHERLY WINDS BACK ABOVE 20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT LATER THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE AND
WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 FT
TODAY...ONLY DROPPING BELOW 10 FT EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH OUR WATERS ON
TUESDAY...WHICH COULD BRING WINDS AND SEAS BACK UP TO SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. AS OF NOW...THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN
WATERS...THOUGH SOUTHERN WATERS LOOK TO GET CLOSE TO 10 FT SEAS. SEAS
DROP BACK BELOW 10 FT ON WEDNESDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BRINGS
ANOTHER FRONT IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY WHICH AS OF NOW LOOKS TO
AGAIN INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
     PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
    FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
    PST TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 241054
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
254 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THIS
MORNING...BUT A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE RAIN WITH RISING
SNOW LEVELS TO THE DISTRICT BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHILE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
DRY OUT. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL SHOWERS HAVE
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AND COAST RANGE AS SEEN ON KRTX RADAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS AND LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST. STILL NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BECOME DENSE...BUT SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS OF DENSE FOG
ARE MORE LIKELY. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BURN OFF BY 10-11AM
PST THIS MORNING...DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

ANOTHER VORTMAX IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING... WITH THE 06Z GFS AND NAM SHOWING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
QPF OVER SW WASHINGTON AS IT TAPS INTO A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER.
HAVE UPPED QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES IN
PARTICULAR...WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE
RISEN ABOVE 6000 FT BY THAT POINT.

BY THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE DOMINANT SALEM SOUTHWARD...
WITH SOME FOG FORMING TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING IN THE VALLEYS. DESPITE
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS ALOFT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS UPWARDS OF
+10 DEG C WED...THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE STUCK IN A BIT OF AN
INVERSION THUS LIMITING TEMPS SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR WED
AFTERNOON WILL BE TRICKY AS A RESULT. IT DOES APPEAR WED WILL BE DRY
FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT AS UPPER RIDGING TAKES CHARGE.

MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXPECTED FOR EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL REACH THE
COAST BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY...PUSHING INLAND THROUGH NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WEAGLE/27

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY..LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING DAY AS A PACIFIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND
DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TAKE THE DEPARTING FRONTS PLACE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO CANADA.
MODELS ARE HINTING ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN
OREGON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP JUST OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...BRINGING BREEZY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /27

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE KEEPING AREAS MVFR
WILL OCCASIONAL IFR THIS MORNING. WIND IS KEEPING KEUG AND KSLE VFR
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THIS WIND MAY
PUSH NORTHWARD WITH TIME THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD CLEAR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS. THIS COULD LIFT CIGS AND VISIBILITY TO VFR
ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BY 18-21Z. COASTAL SITES ARE
REMAINING VFR CURRENTLY...THOUGH CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG TO
DEVELOP SOON. EXPECT THESE SITES TO DEVELOP MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND LIKELY WILL NOT CLEAR
UNTIL WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 15-18Z.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
00Z...WHICH COULD BRING CIGS AND VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR THIS
EVENING WITH RAIN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOW STRATUS KEEPING CIGS MVFR THIS MORNING.
LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO CLEAR OUT AROUND 16-18Z THIS MORNING BEFORE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL LIKELY BRING
CIGS BACK DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AROUND 00Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY...BRINGING
SOUTHERLY WINDS BACK ABOVE 20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT LATER THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE AND
WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 FT
TODAY...ONLY DROPPING BELOW 10 FT EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH OUR WATERS ON
TUESDAY...WHICH COULD BRING WINDS AND SEAS BACK UP TO SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. AS OF NOW...THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN
WATERS...THOUGH SOUTHERN WATERS LOOK TO GET CLOSE TO 10 FT SEAS. SEAS
DROP BACK BELOW 10 FT ON WEDNESDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BRINGS
ANOTHER FRONT IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY WHICH AS OF NOW LOOKS TO
AGAIN INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
     PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
    FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
    PST TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 241054
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
254 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THIS
MORNING...BUT A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE RAIN WITH RISING
SNOW LEVELS TO THE DISTRICT BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHILE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
DRY OUT. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL SHOWERS HAVE
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AND COAST RANGE AS SEEN ON KRTX RADAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS AND LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST. STILL NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BECOME DENSE...BUT SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS OF DENSE FOG
ARE MORE LIKELY. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BURN OFF BY 10-11AM
PST THIS MORNING...DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

ANOTHER VORTMAX IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING... WITH THE 06Z GFS AND NAM SHOWING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
QPF OVER SW WASHINGTON AS IT TAPS INTO A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER.
HAVE UPPED QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES IN
PARTICULAR...WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE
RISEN ABOVE 6000 FT BY THAT POINT.

BY THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE DOMINANT SALEM SOUTHWARD...
WITH SOME FOG FORMING TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING IN THE VALLEYS. DESPITE
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS ALOFT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS UPWARDS OF
+10 DEG C WED...THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE STUCK IN A BIT OF AN
INVERSION THUS LIMITING TEMPS SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR WED
AFTERNOON WILL BE TRICKY AS A RESULT. IT DOES APPEAR WED WILL BE DRY
FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT AS UPPER RIDGING TAKES CHARGE.

MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXPECTED FOR EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL REACH THE
COAST BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY...PUSHING INLAND THROUGH NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WEAGLE/27

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY..LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING DAY AS A PACIFIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND
DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TAKE THE DEPARTING FRONTS PLACE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO CANADA.
MODELS ARE HINTING ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN
OREGON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP JUST OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...BRINGING BREEZY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /27

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE KEEPING AREAS MVFR
WILL OCCASIONAL IFR THIS MORNING. WIND IS KEEPING KEUG AND KSLE VFR
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THIS WIND MAY
PUSH NORTHWARD WITH TIME THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD CLEAR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS. THIS COULD LIFT CIGS AND VISIBILITY TO VFR
ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BY 18-21Z. COASTAL SITES ARE
REMAINING VFR CURRENTLY...THOUGH CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG TO
DEVELOP SOON. EXPECT THESE SITES TO DEVELOP MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND LIKELY WILL NOT CLEAR
UNTIL WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 15-18Z.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
00Z...WHICH COULD BRING CIGS AND VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR THIS
EVENING WITH RAIN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOW STRATUS KEEPING CIGS MVFR THIS MORNING.
LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO CLEAR OUT AROUND 16-18Z THIS MORNING BEFORE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL LIKELY BRING
CIGS BACK DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AROUND 00Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY...BRINGING
SOUTHERLY WINDS BACK ABOVE 20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT LATER THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE AND
WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 FT
TODAY...ONLY DROPPING BELOW 10 FT EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH OUR WATERS ON
TUESDAY...WHICH COULD BRING WINDS AND SEAS BACK UP TO SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. AS OF NOW...THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN
WATERS...THOUGH SOUTHERN WATERS LOOK TO GET CLOSE TO 10 FT SEAS. SEAS
DROP BACK BELOW 10 FT ON WEDNESDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BRINGS
ANOTHER FRONT IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY WHICH AS OF NOW LOOKS TO
AGAIN INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
     PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
    FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
    PST TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 241026
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
326 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE ENDING THIS MORNING AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE TO THE EAST. THERE WILL BE A DRY PERIOD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE WEST. THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RAPIDLY MOISTEN
UP THIS EVENING AS A MOIST PACIFIC PLUME RIDES THE CREST OF THE
RIDGE AND ENTERS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS HAVE INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP ESPECIALLY ACROSS BAKER COUNTY AND IN THE BOISE/WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL W-NW
WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL BE AN ALL-
SNOW EVENT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF
2-4 INCHES EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS /INCLUDING MCCALL AND
IDAHO CITY/ AND 4-8 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
CONSIDERABLY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. VALLEYS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...CHANGING
TO ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MOIST FLOW ALONG A
WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AFTER FRIDAY
ALLOWING MOIST ZONAL FLOW TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A RETURN TO A MORE WINTER LIKE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND BEYOND AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...EXCEPT FOR MVFR-IFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM KBKE-KBOI-KSUN DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG
LIKELY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS UNTIL SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...NW 25-
35KT...SUBSIDING TO NW 15-25KT MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO WNW
40-55KT BY 06Z TUES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NW MONDAY NIGHT
AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 241026
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
326 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE ENDING THIS MORNING AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE TO THE EAST. THERE WILL BE A DRY PERIOD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE WEST. THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RAPIDLY MOISTEN
UP THIS EVENING AS A MOIST PACIFIC PLUME RIDES THE CREST OF THE
RIDGE AND ENTERS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS HAVE INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP ESPECIALLY ACROSS BAKER COUNTY AND IN THE BOISE/WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL W-NW
WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL BE AN ALL-
SNOW EVENT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF
2-4 INCHES EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS /INCLUDING MCCALL AND
IDAHO CITY/ AND 4-8 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
CONSIDERABLY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. VALLEYS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...CHANGING
TO ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MOIST FLOW ALONG A
WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AFTER FRIDAY
ALLOWING MOIST ZONAL FLOW TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A RETURN TO A MORE WINTER LIKE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND BEYOND AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...EXCEPT FOR MVFR-IFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM KBKE-KBOI-KSUN DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG
LIKELY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS UNTIL SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...NW 25-
35KT...SUBSIDING TO NW 15-25KT MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO WNW
40-55KT BY 06Z TUES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NW MONDAY NIGHT
AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 241026
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
326 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE ENDING THIS MORNING AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE TO THE EAST. THERE WILL BE A DRY PERIOD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE WEST. THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RAPIDLY MOISTEN
UP THIS EVENING AS A MOIST PACIFIC PLUME RIDES THE CREST OF THE
RIDGE AND ENTERS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS HAVE INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP ESPECIALLY ACROSS BAKER COUNTY AND IN THE BOISE/WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL W-NW
WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL BE AN ALL-
SNOW EVENT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF
2-4 INCHES EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS /INCLUDING MCCALL AND
IDAHO CITY/ AND 4-8 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
CONSIDERABLY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. VALLEYS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...CHANGING
TO ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MOIST FLOW ALONG A
WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AFTER FRIDAY
ALLOWING MOIST ZONAL FLOW TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A RETURN TO A MORE WINTER LIKE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND BEYOND AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...EXCEPT FOR MVFR-IFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM KBKE-KBOI-KSUN DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG
LIKELY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS UNTIL SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...NW 25-
35KT...SUBSIDING TO NW 15-25KT MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO WNW
40-55KT BY 06Z TUES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NW MONDAY NIGHT
AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 241026
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
326 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE ENDING THIS MORNING AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE TO THE EAST. THERE WILL BE A DRY PERIOD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE WEST. THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RAPIDLY MOISTEN
UP THIS EVENING AS A MOIST PACIFIC PLUME RIDES THE CREST OF THE
RIDGE AND ENTERS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS HAVE INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP ESPECIALLY ACROSS BAKER COUNTY AND IN THE BOISE/WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL W-NW
WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL BE AN ALL-
SNOW EVENT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF
2-4 INCHES EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS /INCLUDING MCCALL AND
IDAHO CITY/ AND 4-8 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
CONSIDERABLY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. VALLEYS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...CHANGING
TO ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MOIST FLOW ALONG A
WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AFTER FRIDAY
ALLOWING MOIST ZONAL FLOW TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A RETURN TO A MORE WINTER LIKE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND BEYOND AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...EXCEPT FOR MVFR-IFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM KBKE-KBOI-KSUN DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG
LIKELY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS UNTIL SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...NW 25-
35KT...SUBSIDING TO NW 15-25KT MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO WNW
40-55KT BY 06Z TUES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NW MONDAY NIGHT
AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS66 KPDT 240615 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1015 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE WAVE THAT
BROUGHT SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY HAS MOVED EAST. AS A
RESULT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO CROSS THE CASCADE CREST AND
AFFECT PARTS OF THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND END TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. ALSO A FEW BANDS CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHEAST OREGON. THESE TOO WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND COME TO AN
END OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY DAY MONDAY, THOUGH THE NEXT
SYSTEM IMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
PRECIP INTO THE CASCADE EAST SLOPE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET TONIGHT, THEN RISE
AGAIN MONDAY, RANGING FROM 3500 FEET IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND 5000
FEET IN CENTRAL OREGON BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ONLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A VERY BUSY EXTENDED AS ACTIVE
WEATHER THREATENS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA BY MID WEEK. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
OVERRUN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SPOKANE
CWA. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST
OREGON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH
FROM CANADA WILL FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY...
PROVIDING A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA FOR THANKSGIVING. RIGHT
NOW HAVE NOT GONE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS ON THURSDAY...AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN...AND THERE MAY BE A DECENT RAINSHADOW
AFFECT FOR THE BASIN. SO 20-30 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 30-50 PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SOUTH LOOKS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE
CANADIAN COLD FRONT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY
ONWARD IS WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING. THESE TWO AIR MASSES CONTINUE
TO BATTLE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND THERE IS STILL SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THE TIME IT WILL FALL. THE CURRENT OVERALL CONSENSUS
INDICATES THAT THE COLD AIR WILL REACH ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF THE
I-84 CORRIDOR...AND ALL AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL SEE SNOW AS THE
GENERAL FORM OF PRECIPITATION. CENTRAL OREGON AND THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS IS WHERE IT GETS CHALLENGING. THESE AREAS COULD SEE A RAIN
SNOW MIX...OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED THE
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST DUE TO TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY. BY
SUNDAY MORNING PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING AND MAY HAVE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND MAKE
UPDATED AS CHANGES OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...KEPT ALL TAF SITES WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR MIST TO FORM MAINLY AFTER 24/9-12Z THROUGH
24/18Z AT SEVERAL TAF SITES. ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR
THIS TO OCCUR...THEREFORE FOR THE TIME BEING INTRODUCED ONLY FEW OR
SCT LOW CLOUDS TO THE AFFECTED TAF SITES. OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER 25/00Z
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA WITH A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
BETWEEN 4-8KFT AGL AND -SHRA BECOMING POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DECREASE BELOW 10KTS AT KPDT BY 24/12Z AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
AOB 10KTS AT ALL OTHER TAF STATIONS THROUGH 25/00Z. AFTER 25/00Z
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT MOST TAF SITES. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  48  40  58 /  20  10  40  30
ALW  37  48  42  60 /  20  10  40  40
PSC  35  48  40  58 /  10  10  40  30
YKM  29  42  33  53 /  10  10  30  30
HRI  36  49  40  58 /  10  10  40  30
ELN  30  42  33  52 /  20  10  40  30
RDM  25  47  34  61 /  10  10  30  20
LGD  32  45  34  53 /  60  10  50  60
GCD  30  41  31  55 /  30  10  40  30
DLS  38  51  40  54 /  20  10  40  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/89/77






000
FXUS66 KPQR 240547
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
946 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE HAS STALLED BETWEEN SALEM AND EUGENE THIS
EVENING...AND CONTINUES TO BRING VALLEY RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW MORE OR
LESS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
WITH PRECIPITATION DECREASING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY MONDAY MORNING...BUT A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MORE RAIN WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS TO THE DISTRICT
BY MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY RIDE ALONG THIS
FRONT TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHILE THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY DRY OUT. AFTER A MAINLY DRY
DAY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KRTX RADAR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE PRODUCING A PERSISTENT BAND
OF VALLEY RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW FROM ROUGHLY NEWPORT TO SANTIAM
PASS...ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION
ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE WAS FAIRLY HEAVY EARLIER THIS EVENING...
DROPPING A QUICK 4-7 INCHES OF SNOW EARLIER TODAY AND WARRANTING A
QUICK SNOW ADVISORY FOR AREAS NEAR MOUNT HOOD. VALLEY RAIN WAS HEAVY
AT TIMES AS WELL...WITH A QUICK HALF INCH OF RAIN COMING IN A 1-2
HOUR PERIOD AND RESULTING IN SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING ISSUES
EARLIER THIS EVENING. PRECIP RATES WITHIN THE FRONTAL BAND ARE NOT
AS IMPRESSIVE AS THEY WERE A COUPLE HOURS AGO. THE ODOT WEBCAM AT
SANTIAM PASS SHOWED A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW FALLING...BUT ROADS WERE
GENERALLY WET THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
A COUPLE MORE INCHES AND MAINLY ABOVE 4500-5000 FT WITHIN THE
FRONTAL BAND.

DRY WEATHER PREVAILS BOTH TO THE NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ROUGHLY 20-30 MILE WIDE FRONTAL BAND...WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG
FORMING. WE DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BECOME TOO DENSE AND WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT DUE TO VARIABLE CLOUDINESS PASSING BY AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH
LEVELS. THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY DRIFT A BIT BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOSES NORTHWARD FROM THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. HOWEVER THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD LOSE ITS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SOMEWHAT AS THE MAIN UPPER JET AXIS SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE FRONT. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD
DWINDLE OVERNIGHT.

MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT
SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER WARM FRONT ACROSS THE DISTRICT MON/MON NIGHT.
THIS MAY PRODUCE A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY. ANOTHER VORTMAX IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG
THIS FRONT TUESDAY...AND MOST 00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNT OF QPF FOR SW WASHINGTON AS IT TAPS INTO A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER. FOR EXAMPLE THE 00Z GFS SHOWING AS MUCH AS 1-3 INCHES FOR THE
S WA CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE RISEN ABOVE 6000 FT BY
THAT POINT.

BY THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE DOMINANT SALEM SOUTHWARD...
WITH SOME FOG FORMING TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING IN THE VALLEYS. DESPITE
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS ALOFT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS UPWARDS OF
+10 DEG C WED...THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE STUCK IN A BIT OF AN
INVERSION THUS LIMITING TEMPS SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR WED
AFTERNOON WILL BE TRICKY AS A RESULT. IT DOES APPEAR WED WILL BE DRY
FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT AS UPPER RIDGING TAKES CHARGE.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...MOVING ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES OF WHEN THE
RAIN WILL START. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT ONSHORE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL DAYBREAK. EXPECT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WILL BRING A MUCH STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM. SNOW
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND COULD DROP TO THE PASSES. AS OF NOW...IT
LOOKS LIKE WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR
THOSE RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED CONTINUE TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. DETAILS OF THE
IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM NEXT WEEKENDS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64

&&

.AVIATION...A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM JUST NORTH OF NEWPORT THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEAKEN FURTHER LATER INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AREA OF THE RAIN BAND...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR FROM TIME TO TIME UNDERNEATH ANY HEAVIER RAIN.

BEHIND THE RAIN BAND...SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR WITH LOW MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS FORMING RATHER QUICKLY AFTER CLEARING. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND WEST TO
EAST. COULD SEE VIS AS LOW AS LIFR...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST
AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. SHALLOW FOG WILL
BURN OFF BY 17Z-18Z BUT ANY TERMINAL WHICH SEES SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
TONIGHT AND THUS THICKER FOG IN THE MORNING MAY HAVE TROUBLE
CLEARING MUCH AT ALL MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. SAID FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS FIRST TO
THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN INLAND MONDAY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SOME CLEARING TONIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG
AND/OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM...LIKELY BURNING OFF BY 17Z-18Z.
BOWEN/PYLE

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING FRONT HAS MOVED SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY...AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
NEWPORT. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF EVEN AS THE FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO
WEAKEN...AND ARE NOW WESTERLY AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.
EXPECT THE LULL IN THE WINDS TO LAST INTO EARLY MON. THEN THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS TOMORROW. THE
LATEST FCST MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAKER WINDS THAN THE PREVIOUS
MODEL RUN AND THUS HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WATCH AND INSTEAD
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND EXTENDED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN 12-15 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT...DECREASING TO 10-12 FEET DURING THE DAY MONDAY. BOWEN

WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MIGHT
BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT THE SCENARIO
DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE FORCE OR HIGHER
WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
     PST TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 240547
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
946 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE HAS STALLED BETWEEN SALEM AND EUGENE THIS
EVENING...AND CONTINUES TO BRING VALLEY RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW MORE OR
LESS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
WITH PRECIPITATION DECREASING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY MONDAY MORNING...BUT A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MORE RAIN WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS TO THE DISTRICT
BY MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY RIDE ALONG THIS
FRONT TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHILE THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY DRY OUT. AFTER A MAINLY DRY
DAY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KRTX RADAR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE PRODUCING A PERSISTENT BAND
OF VALLEY RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW FROM ROUGHLY NEWPORT TO SANTIAM
PASS...ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION
ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE WAS FAIRLY HEAVY EARLIER THIS EVENING...
DROPPING A QUICK 4-7 INCHES OF SNOW EARLIER TODAY AND WARRANTING A
QUICK SNOW ADVISORY FOR AREAS NEAR MOUNT HOOD. VALLEY RAIN WAS HEAVY
AT TIMES AS WELL...WITH A QUICK HALF INCH OF RAIN COMING IN A 1-2
HOUR PERIOD AND RESULTING IN SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING ISSUES
EARLIER THIS EVENING. PRECIP RATES WITHIN THE FRONTAL BAND ARE NOT
AS IMPRESSIVE AS THEY WERE A COUPLE HOURS AGO. THE ODOT WEBCAM AT
SANTIAM PASS SHOWED A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW FALLING...BUT ROADS WERE
GENERALLY WET THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
A COUPLE MORE INCHES AND MAINLY ABOVE 4500-5000 FT WITHIN THE
FRONTAL BAND.

DRY WEATHER PREVAILS BOTH TO THE NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ROUGHLY 20-30 MILE WIDE FRONTAL BAND...WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG
FORMING. WE DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BECOME TOO DENSE AND WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT DUE TO VARIABLE CLOUDINESS PASSING BY AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH
LEVELS. THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY DRIFT A BIT BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOSES NORTHWARD FROM THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. HOWEVER THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD LOSE ITS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SOMEWHAT AS THE MAIN UPPER JET AXIS SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE FRONT. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD
DWINDLE OVERNIGHT.

MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT
SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER WARM FRONT ACROSS THE DISTRICT MON/MON NIGHT.
THIS MAY PRODUCE A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY. ANOTHER VORTMAX IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG
THIS FRONT TUESDAY...AND MOST 00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNT OF QPF FOR SW WASHINGTON AS IT TAPS INTO A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER. FOR EXAMPLE THE 00Z GFS SHOWING AS MUCH AS 1-3 INCHES FOR THE
S WA CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE RISEN ABOVE 6000 FT BY
THAT POINT.

BY THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE DOMINANT SALEM SOUTHWARD...
WITH SOME FOG FORMING TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING IN THE VALLEYS. DESPITE
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS ALOFT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS UPWARDS OF
+10 DEG C WED...THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE STUCK IN A BIT OF AN
INVERSION THUS LIMITING TEMPS SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR WED
AFTERNOON WILL BE TRICKY AS A RESULT. IT DOES APPEAR WED WILL BE DRY
FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT AS UPPER RIDGING TAKES CHARGE.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...MOVING ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES OF WHEN THE
RAIN WILL START. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT ONSHORE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL DAYBREAK. EXPECT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WILL BRING A MUCH STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM. SNOW
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND COULD DROP TO THE PASSES. AS OF NOW...IT
LOOKS LIKE WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR
THOSE RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED CONTINUE TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. DETAILS OF THE
IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM NEXT WEEKENDS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64

&&

.AVIATION...A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM JUST NORTH OF NEWPORT THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEAKEN FURTHER LATER INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AREA OF THE RAIN BAND...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR FROM TIME TO TIME UNDERNEATH ANY HEAVIER RAIN.

BEHIND THE RAIN BAND...SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR WITH LOW MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS FORMING RATHER QUICKLY AFTER CLEARING. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND WEST TO
EAST. COULD SEE VIS AS LOW AS LIFR...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST
AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. SHALLOW FOG WILL
BURN OFF BY 17Z-18Z BUT ANY TERMINAL WHICH SEES SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
TONIGHT AND THUS THICKER FOG IN THE MORNING MAY HAVE TROUBLE
CLEARING MUCH AT ALL MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. SAID FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS FIRST TO
THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN INLAND MONDAY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SOME CLEARING TONIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG
AND/OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM...LIKELY BURNING OFF BY 17Z-18Z.
BOWEN/PYLE

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING FRONT HAS MOVED SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY...AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
NEWPORT. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF EVEN AS THE FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO
WEAKEN...AND ARE NOW WESTERLY AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.
EXPECT THE LULL IN THE WINDS TO LAST INTO EARLY MON. THEN THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS TOMORROW. THE
LATEST FCST MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAKER WINDS THAN THE PREVIOUS
MODEL RUN AND THUS HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WATCH AND INSTEAD
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND EXTENDED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN 12-15 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT...DECREASING TO 10-12 FEET DURING THE DAY MONDAY. BOWEN

WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MIGHT
BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT THE SCENARIO
DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE FORCE OR HIGHER
WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
     PST TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 240524
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
924 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE WAVE THAT
BROUGHT SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY HAS MOVED EAST. AS A
RESULT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO CROSS THE CASCADE CREST AND
AFFECT PARTS OF THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND END TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. ALSO A FEW BANDS CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHEAST OREGON. THESE TOO WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND COME TO AN
END OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY DAY MONDAY, THOUGH THE NEXT
SYSTEM IMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
PRECIP INTO THE CASCADE EAST SLOPE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET TONIGHT, THEN RISE
AGAIN MONDAY, RANGING FROM 3500 FEET IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND 5000
FEET IN CENTRAL OREGON BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ONLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A VERY BUSY EXTENDED AS ACTIVE
WEATHER THREATENS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA BY MID WEEK. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
OVERRUN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SPOKANE
CWA. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST
OREGON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH
FROM CANADA WILL FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY...
PROVIDING A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA FOR THANKSGIVING. RIGHT
NOW HAVE NOT GONE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS ON THURSDAY...AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN...AND THERE MAY BE A DECENT RAINSHADOW
AFFECT FOR THE BASIN. SO 20-30 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 30-50 PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SOUTH LOOKS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE
CANADIAN COLD FRONT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY
ONWARD IS WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING. THESE TWO AIR MASSES CONTINUE
TO BATTLE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND THERE IS STILL SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THE TIME IT WILL FALL. THE CURRENT OVERALL CONSENSUS
INDICATES THAT THE COLD AIR WILL REACH ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF THE
I-84 CORRIDOR...AND ALL AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL SEE SNOW AS THE
GENERAL FORM OF PRECIPITATION. CENTRAL OREGON AND THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS IS WHERE IT GETS CHALLENGING. THESE AREAS COULD SEE A RAIN
SNOW MIX...OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED THE
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST DUE TO TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY. BY
SUNDAY MORNING PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING AND MAY HAVE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND MAKE
UPDATED AS CHANGES OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...00Z TAFS...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THIS EVENING. PEAK ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
THROUGH 06Z...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AT KALW AND KPDT THROUGH
09Z. KRDM...KBDN...AND KYKM MAY ESCAPE THE SHOWERS DUE TO
RAINSHADOWING. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY AS WELL WITH WIND SPEEDS
10-15KTS...GUSTING TO 25KTS AT TIMES. CIGS TONIGHT ARE IN
QUESTION...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIST/FOG INCREASES. HAVE INTRODUCED
LOWERED CIGS/VIS INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY AT TAF SITES OF CONCERN.
CIGS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AFTER 18Z AND BECOME SCT-BKN 7-10KFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  48  40  58 /  20  10  40  30
ALW  37  48  42  60 /  20  10  40  40
PSC  35  48  40  58 /  10  10  40  30
YKM  29  42  33  53 /  10  10  30  30
HRI  36  49  40  58 /  10  10  40  30
ELN  30  42  33  52 /  20  10  40  30
RDM  25  47  34  61 /  10  10  30  20
LGD  32  45  34  53 /  60  10  50  60
GCD  30  41  31  55 /  30  10  40  30
DLS  38  51  40  54 /  20  10  40  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/89/77







000
FXUS66 KPDT 240524
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
924 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE WAVE THAT
BROUGHT SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY HAS MOVED EAST. AS A
RESULT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO CROSS THE CASCADE CREST AND
AFFECT PARTS OF THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND END TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. ALSO A FEW BANDS CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHEAST OREGON. THESE TOO WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND COME TO AN
END OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY DAY MONDAY, THOUGH THE NEXT
SYSTEM IMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
PRECIP INTO THE CASCADE EAST SLOPE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET TONIGHT, THEN RISE
AGAIN MONDAY, RANGING FROM 3500 FEET IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND 5000
FEET IN CENTRAL OREGON BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ONLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A VERY BUSY EXTENDED AS ACTIVE
WEATHER THREATENS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA BY MID WEEK. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
OVERRUN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SPOKANE
CWA. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST
OREGON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH
FROM CANADA WILL FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY...
PROVIDING A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA FOR THANKSGIVING. RIGHT
NOW HAVE NOT GONE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS ON THURSDAY...AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN...AND THERE MAY BE A DECENT RAINSHADOW
AFFECT FOR THE BASIN. SO 20-30 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 30-50 PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SOUTH LOOKS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE
CANADIAN COLD FRONT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY
ONWARD IS WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING. THESE TWO AIR MASSES CONTINUE
TO BATTLE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND THERE IS STILL SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THE TIME IT WILL FALL. THE CURRENT OVERALL CONSENSUS
INDICATES THAT THE COLD AIR WILL REACH ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF THE
I-84 CORRIDOR...AND ALL AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL SEE SNOW AS THE
GENERAL FORM OF PRECIPITATION. CENTRAL OREGON AND THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS IS WHERE IT GETS CHALLENGING. THESE AREAS COULD SEE A RAIN
SNOW MIX...OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED THE
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST DUE TO TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY. BY
SUNDAY MORNING PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING AND MAY HAVE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND MAKE
UPDATED AS CHANGES OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...00Z TAFS...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THIS EVENING. PEAK ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
THROUGH 06Z...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AT KALW AND KPDT THROUGH
09Z. KRDM...KBDN...AND KYKM MAY ESCAPE THE SHOWERS DUE TO
RAINSHADOWING. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY AS WELL WITH WIND SPEEDS
10-15KTS...GUSTING TO 25KTS AT TIMES. CIGS TONIGHT ARE IN
QUESTION...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIST/FOG INCREASES. HAVE INTRODUCED
LOWERED CIGS/VIS INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY AT TAF SITES OF CONCERN.
CIGS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AFTER 18Z AND BECOME SCT-BKN 7-10KFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  48  40  58 /  20  10  40  30
ALW  37  48  42  60 /  20  10  40  40
PSC  35  48  40  58 /  10  10  40  30
YKM  29  42  33  53 /  10  10  30  30
HRI  36  49  40  58 /  10  10  40  30
ELN  30  42  33  52 /  20  10  40  30
RDM  25  47  34  61 /  10  10  30  20
LGD  32  45  34  53 /  60  10  50  60
GCD  30  41  31  55 /  30  10  40  30
DLS  38  51  40  54 /  20  10  40  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/89/77








000
FXUS66 KMFR 240442
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
842 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
IN SOME OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED...INCLUDING HERE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY...PORTIONS OF THE
ILLINOIS VALLEY AND THE LOWER KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH LOWER THAN WHERE
THEY CURRENTLY ARE, SO EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
WHERE IT STAYS CLEAR LONGER LIKE OVER THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST SIDE
AND IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...EVEN
SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE COLDER SPOTS.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TOO ALONG THE COAST. THE NEW 00Z NAM12 AND GFS40 ARE
STILL AT ODDS WITH HOW FAR PRECIPITATION WILL PENETRATE INLAND
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
NAM12 SHOWS SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN
AN AREA OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES
MONDAY MORNING THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT WITH THE FOCUS IN THE CASCADES AND THE COAST RANGES. IT
WOULD EVEN SUGGEST SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEW GFS40
AND THE 12Z ECMWF, HOWEVER, KEEP ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
THE OR/CA BORDER AND CONFINE IT TO THE COAST, THE UMPQUA BASIN AND
THE CASCADES. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES (SREF) ARE NOT AS BULLISH WITH
PRECIPITATION AS THE NAM12 WOULD SUGGEST, BUT HAVE IT FARTHER
INLAND THAN BOTH THE GFS40 AND THE ECWMF. THE SREF IS A FAIR
COMPROMISE AND THE GRIDS REFLECT THIS THINKING. EITHER WAY, WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE...WITH LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS (ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS HERE IN
MEDFORD) AND GENERALLY 0.10-0.30 OF AN INCH ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE CASCADES. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...THEN AREA
OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...MOSTLY OVER THE VALLEYS...
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.  THE LOWER AREAS WILL CLEAR
TO VFR BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...BUT CIGS 4-5KFT ABOVE SEA LEVEL WILL
DEVELOP AT THAT TIME. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
STEEP MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THE FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE AREA MONDAY.
SO...SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP WITH A WIND WAVE CHOP OVER THE SWELL
MONDAY.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD TUESDAY AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...FLAT RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY, BUT IT`S SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING UP AND
THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD SCATTER OUT TOWARDS EVENING. WE`LL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM
HAVE BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF, BUT THE 18Z
RUN SHOWS IT WEAKENING (ALMOST SPLITTING) AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NOW SHOWS MUCH LESS QPF FOR OUR AREA. THE EC
IS THE DRIEST, BUT NOT AS DRY AS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE THINKING IS
WE`LL END UP WITH A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT. WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST IF
NOT ALL WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXIST, THEREFORE WE THINK LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR
WESTSIDE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE WE`LL HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AGAIN FOR MOST OF NOT ALL WESTSIDE VALLEYS GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, BUT LOW
CLOUDS MAY NOT BREAK UP IN THE VALLEYS UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
-PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE THE
EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND THERE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SHIFT FROM RIDGING MID WEEK TO A
WETTER, ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE DETAILS SUCH AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
PARTICULAR SYSTEMS, BUT WE WERE ABLE TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND OF
POPS FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WE STARTED A FEW DAYS AGO.

REGARDING HOLIDAY TRAVEL: WHILE THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE WET, THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE MAJOR PASS LEVELS, SO MAJOR IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF
THE WEEKEND, AND SNOW MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT HIGHER PASSES LIKE
SISKIYOU SUMMIT, HIGHWAY 140 ACROSS THE CASCADES, AND THE
CRATER/DIAMOND LAKE AREAS BY SUNDAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS SHOULD WATCH
FOR UPDATES AS WE NEAR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. -WRIGHT

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...THEN AREA
OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...MOSTLY OVER THE VALLEYS...
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.  THE LOWER AREAS WILL CLEAR
TO VFR BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...BUT CIGS 4-5KFT ABOVE SEA LEVEL WILL
DEVELOP AT THAT TIME. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.


MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
STEEP MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THE FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE AREA MONDAY.
SO...SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP WITH A WIND WAVE CHOP OVER THE SWELL
MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD TUESDAY AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE
FRIDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM
 TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY
   FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
 PZZ370-376.

$$

MAS/MAP/TRW/JRS



000
FXUS66 KMFR 240442
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
842 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
IN SOME OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED...INCLUDING HERE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY...PORTIONS OF THE
ILLINOIS VALLEY AND THE LOWER KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH LOWER THAN WHERE
THEY CURRENTLY ARE, SO EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
WHERE IT STAYS CLEAR LONGER LIKE OVER THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST SIDE
AND IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...EVEN
SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE COLDER SPOTS.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TOO ALONG THE COAST. THE NEW 00Z NAM12 AND GFS40 ARE
STILL AT ODDS WITH HOW FAR PRECIPITATION WILL PENETRATE INLAND
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
NAM12 SHOWS SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN
AN AREA OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES
MONDAY MORNING THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT WITH THE FOCUS IN THE CASCADES AND THE COAST RANGES. IT
WOULD EVEN SUGGEST SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEW GFS40
AND THE 12Z ECMWF, HOWEVER, KEEP ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
THE OR/CA BORDER AND CONFINE IT TO THE COAST, THE UMPQUA BASIN AND
THE CASCADES. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES (SREF) ARE NOT AS BULLISH WITH
PRECIPITATION AS THE NAM12 WOULD SUGGEST, BUT HAVE IT FARTHER
INLAND THAN BOTH THE GFS40 AND THE ECWMF. THE SREF IS A FAIR
COMPROMISE AND THE GRIDS REFLECT THIS THINKING. EITHER WAY, WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE...WITH LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS (ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS HERE IN
MEDFORD) AND GENERALLY 0.10-0.30 OF AN INCH ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE CASCADES. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...THEN AREA
OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...MOSTLY OVER THE VALLEYS...
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.  THE LOWER AREAS WILL CLEAR
TO VFR BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...BUT CIGS 4-5KFT ABOVE SEA LEVEL WILL
DEVELOP AT THAT TIME. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
STEEP MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THE FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE AREA MONDAY.
SO...SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP WITH A WIND WAVE CHOP OVER THE SWELL
MONDAY.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD TUESDAY AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...FLAT RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY, BUT IT`S SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING UP AND
THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD SCATTER OUT TOWARDS EVENING. WE`LL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM
HAVE BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF, BUT THE 18Z
RUN SHOWS IT WEAKENING (ALMOST SPLITTING) AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NOW SHOWS MUCH LESS QPF FOR OUR AREA. THE EC
IS THE DRIEST, BUT NOT AS DRY AS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE THINKING IS
WE`LL END UP WITH A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT. WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST IF
NOT ALL WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXIST, THEREFORE WE THINK LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR
WESTSIDE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE WE`LL HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AGAIN FOR MOST OF NOT ALL WESTSIDE VALLEYS GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, BUT LOW
CLOUDS MAY NOT BREAK UP IN THE VALLEYS UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
-PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE THE
EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND THERE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SHIFT FROM RIDGING MID WEEK TO A
WETTER, ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE DETAILS SUCH AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
PARTICULAR SYSTEMS, BUT WE WERE ABLE TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND OF
POPS FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WE STARTED A FEW DAYS AGO.

REGARDING HOLIDAY TRAVEL: WHILE THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE WET, THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE MAJOR PASS LEVELS, SO MAJOR IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF
THE WEEKEND, AND SNOW MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT HIGHER PASSES LIKE
SISKIYOU SUMMIT, HIGHWAY 140 ACROSS THE CASCADES, AND THE
CRATER/DIAMOND LAKE AREAS BY SUNDAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS SHOULD WATCH
FOR UPDATES AS WE NEAR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. -WRIGHT

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...THEN AREA
OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...MOSTLY OVER THE VALLEYS...
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.  THE LOWER AREAS WILL CLEAR
TO VFR BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...BUT CIGS 4-5KFT ABOVE SEA LEVEL WILL
DEVELOP AT THAT TIME. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.


MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
STEEP MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THE FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE AREA MONDAY.
SO...SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP WITH A WIND WAVE CHOP OVER THE SWELL
MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD TUESDAY AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE
FRIDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM
 TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY
   FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
 PZZ370-376.

$$

MAS/MAP/TRW/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 240442
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
842 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
IN SOME OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED...INCLUDING HERE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY...PORTIONS OF THE
ILLINOIS VALLEY AND THE LOWER KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH LOWER THAN WHERE
THEY CURRENTLY ARE, SO EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
WHERE IT STAYS CLEAR LONGER LIKE OVER THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST SIDE
AND IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...EVEN
SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE COLDER SPOTS.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TOO ALONG THE COAST. THE NEW 00Z NAM12 AND GFS40 ARE
STILL AT ODDS WITH HOW FAR PRECIPITATION WILL PENETRATE INLAND
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
NAM12 SHOWS SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN
AN AREA OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES
MONDAY MORNING THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT WITH THE FOCUS IN THE CASCADES AND THE COAST RANGES. IT
WOULD EVEN SUGGEST SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEW GFS40
AND THE 12Z ECMWF, HOWEVER, KEEP ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
THE OR/CA BORDER AND CONFINE IT TO THE COAST, THE UMPQUA BASIN AND
THE CASCADES. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES (SREF) ARE NOT AS BULLISH WITH
PRECIPITATION AS THE NAM12 WOULD SUGGEST, BUT HAVE IT FARTHER
INLAND THAN BOTH THE GFS40 AND THE ECWMF. THE SREF IS A FAIR
COMPROMISE AND THE GRIDS REFLECT THIS THINKING. EITHER WAY, WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE...WITH LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS (ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS HERE IN
MEDFORD) AND GENERALLY 0.10-0.30 OF AN INCH ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE CASCADES. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...THEN AREA
OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...MOSTLY OVER THE VALLEYS...
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.  THE LOWER AREAS WILL CLEAR
TO VFR BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...BUT CIGS 4-5KFT ABOVE SEA LEVEL WILL
DEVELOP AT THAT TIME. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
STEEP MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THE FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE AREA MONDAY.
SO...SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP WITH A WIND WAVE CHOP OVER THE SWELL
MONDAY.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD TUESDAY AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...FLAT RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY, BUT IT`S SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING UP AND
THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD SCATTER OUT TOWARDS EVENING. WE`LL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM
HAVE BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF, BUT THE 18Z
RUN SHOWS IT WEAKENING (ALMOST SPLITTING) AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NOW SHOWS MUCH LESS QPF FOR OUR AREA. THE EC
IS THE DRIEST, BUT NOT AS DRY AS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE THINKING IS
WE`LL END UP WITH A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT. WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST IF
NOT ALL WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXIST, THEREFORE WE THINK LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR
WESTSIDE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE WE`LL HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AGAIN FOR MOST OF NOT ALL WESTSIDE VALLEYS GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, BUT LOW
CLOUDS MAY NOT BREAK UP IN THE VALLEYS UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
-PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE THE
EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND THERE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SHIFT FROM RIDGING MID WEEK TO A
WETTER, ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE DETAILS SUCH AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
PARTICULAR SYSTEMS, BUT WE WERE ABLE TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND OF
POPS FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WE STARTED A FEW DAYS AGO.

REGARDING HOLIDAY TRAVEL: WHILE THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE WET, THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE MAJOR PASS LEVELS, SO MAJOR IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF
THE WEEKEND, AND SNOW MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT HIGHER PASSES LIKE
SISKIYOU SUMMIT, HIGHWAY 140 ACROSS THE CASCADES, AND THE
CRATER/DIAMOND LAKE AREAS BY SUNDAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS SHOULD WATCH
FOR UPDATES AS WE NEAR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. -WRIGHT

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...THEN AREA
OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...MOSTLY OVER THE VALLEYS...
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.  THE LOWER AREAS WILL CLEAR
TO VFR BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...BUT CIGS 4-5KFT ABOVE SEA LEVEL WILL
DEVELOP AT THAT TIME. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.


MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
STEEP MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THE FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE AREA MONDAY.
SO...SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP WITH A WIND WAVE CHOP OVER THE SWELL
MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD TUESDAY AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE
FRIDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM
 TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY
   FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
 PZZ370-376.

$$

MAS/MAP/TRW/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 240442
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
842 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
IN SOME OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED...INCLUDING HERE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY...PORTIONS OF THE
ILLINOIS VALLEY AND THE LOWER KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH LOWER THAN WHERE
THEY CURRENTLY ARE, SO EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
WHERE IT STAYS CLEAR LONGER LIKE OVER THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST SIDE
AND IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...EVEN
SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE COLDER SPOTS.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TOO ALONG THE COAST. THE NEW 00Z NAM12 AND GFS40 ARE
STILL AT ODDS WITH HOW FAR PRECIPITATION WILL PENETRATE INLAND
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
NAM12 SHOWS SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN
AN AREA OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES
MONDAY MORNING THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT WITH THE FOCUS IN THE CASCADES AND THE COAST RANGES. IT
WOULD EVEN SUGGEST SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEW GFS40
AND THE 12Z ECMWF, HOWEVER, KEEP ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
THE OR/CA BORDER AND CONFINE IT TO THE COAST, THE UMPQUA BASIN AND
THE CASCADES. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES (SREF) ARE NOT AS BULLISH WITH
PRECIPITATION AS THE NAM12 WOULD SUGGEST, BUT HAVE IT FARTHER
INLAND THAN BOTH THE GFS40 AND THE ECWMF. THE SREF IS A FAIR
COMPROMISE AND THE GRIDS REFLECT THIS THINKING. EITHER WAY, WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE...WITH LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS (ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS HERE IN
MEDFORD) AND GENERALLY 0.10-0.30 OF AN INCH ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE CASCADES. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...THEN AREA
OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...MOSTLY OVER THE VALLEYS...
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.  THE LOWER AREAS WILL CLEAR
TO VFR BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...BUT CIGS 4-5KFT ABOVE SEA LEVEL WILL
DEVELOP AT THAT TIME. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
STEEP MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THE FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE AREA MONDAY.
SO...SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP WITH A WIND WAVE CHOP OVER THE SWELL
MONDAY.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD TUESDAY AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...FLAT RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY, BUT IT`S SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING UP AND
THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD SCATTER OUT TOWARDS EVENING. WE`LL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM
HAVE BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF, BUT THE 18Z
RUN SHOWS IT WEAKENING (ALMOST SPLITTING) AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NOW SHOWS MUCH LESS QPF FOR OUR AREA. THE EC
IS THE DRIEST, BUT NOT AS DRY AS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE THINKING IS
WE`LL END UP WITH A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT. WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST IF
NOT ALL WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXIST, THEREFORE WE THINK LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR
WESTSIDE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE WE`LL HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AGAIN FOR MOST OF NOT ALL WESTSIDE VALLEYS GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, BUT LOW
CLOUDS MAY NOT BREAK UP IN THE VALLEYS UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
-PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE THE
EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND THERE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SHIFT FROM RIDGING MID WEEK TO A
WETTER, ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE DETAILS SUCH AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
PARTICULAR SYSTEMS, BUT WE WERE ABLE TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND OF
POPS FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WE STARTED A FEW DAYS AGO.

REGARDING HOLIDAY TRAVEL: WHILE THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE WET, THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE MAJOR PASS LEVELS, SO MAJOR IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF
THE WEEKEND, AND SNOW MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT HIGHER PASSES LIKE
SISKIYOU SUMMIT, HIGHWAY 140 ACROSS THE CASCADES, AND THE
CRATER/DIAMOND LAKE AREAS BY SUNDAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS SHOULD WATCH
FOR UPDATES AS WE NEAR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. -WRIGHT

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...THEN AREA
OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...MOSTLY OVER THE VALLEYS...
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.  THE LOWER AREAS WILL CLEAR
TO VFR BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...BUT CIGS 4-5KFT ABOVE SEA LEVEL WILL
DEVELOP AT THAT TIME. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.


MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
STEEP MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THE FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE AREA MONDAY.
SO...SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP WITH A WIND WAVE CHOP OVER THE SWELL
MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD TUESDAY AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE
FRIDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM
 TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY
   FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
 PZZ370-376.

$$

MAS/MAP/TRW/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 240442
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
842 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
IN SOME OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED...INCLUDING HERE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY...PORTIONS OF THE
ILLINOIS VALLEY AND THE LOWER KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH LOWER THAN WHERE
THEY CURRENTLY ARE, SO EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
WHERE IT STAYS CLEAR LONGER LIKE OVER THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST SIDE
AND IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...EVEN
SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE COLDER SPOTS.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TOO ALONG THE COAST. THE NEW 00Z NAM12 AND GFS40 ARE
STILL AT ODDS WITH HOW FAR PRECIPITATION WILL PENETRATE INLAND
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
NAM12 SHOWS SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN
AN AREA OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES
MONDAY MORNING THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT WITH THE FOCUS IN THE CASCADES AND THE COAST RANGES. IT
WOULD EVEN SUGGEST SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEW GFS40
AND THE 12Z ECMWF, HOWEVER, KEEP ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
THE OR/CA BORDER AND CONFINE IT TO THE COAST, THE UMPQUA BASIN AND
THE CASCADES. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES (SREF) ARE NOT AS BULLISH WITH
PRECIPITATION AS THE NAM12 WOULD SUGGEST, BUT HAVE IT FARTHER
INLAND THAN BOTH THE GFS40 AND THE ECWMF. THE SREF IS A FAIR
COMPROMISE AND THE GRIDS REFLECT THIS THINKING. EITHER WAY, WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE...WITH LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS (ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS HERE IN
MEDFORD) AND GENERALLY 0.10-0.30 OF AN INCH ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE CASCADES. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...THEN AREA
OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...MOSTLY OVER THE VALLEYS...
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.  THE LOWER AREAS WILL CLEAR
TO VFR BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...BUT CIGS 4-5KFT ABOVE SEA LEVEL WILL
DEVELOP AT THAT TIME. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
STEEP MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THE FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE AREA MONDAY.
SO...SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP WITH A WIND WAVE CHOP OVER THE SWELL
MONDAY.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD TUESDAY AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...FLAT RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY, BUT IT`S SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING UP AND
THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD SCATTER OUT TOWARDS EVENING. WE`LL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM
HAVE BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF, BUT THE 18Z
RUN SHOWS IT WEAKENING (ALMOST SPLITTING) AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NOW SHOWS MUCH LESS QPF FOR OUR AREA. THE EC
IS THE DRIEST, BUT NOT AS DRY AS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE THINKING IS
WE`LL END UP WITH A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT. WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST IF
NOT ALL WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXIST, THEREFORE WE THINK LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR
WESTSIDE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE WE`LL HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AGAIN FOR MOST OF NOT ALL WESTSIDE VALLEYS GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, BUT LOW
CLOUDS MAY NOT BREAK UP IN THE VALLEYS UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
-PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE THE
EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND THERE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SHIFT FROM RIDGING MID WEEK TO A
WETTER, ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE DETAILS SUCH AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
PARTICULAR SYSTEMS, BUT WE WERE ABLE TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND OF
POPS FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WE STARTED A FEW DAYS AGO.

REGARDING HOLIDAY TRAVEL: WHILE THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE WET, THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE MAJOR PASS LEVELS, SO MAJOR IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF
THE WEEKEND, AND SNOW MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT HIGHER PASSES LIKE
SISKIYOU SUMMIT, HIGHWAY 140 ACROSS THE CASCADES, AND THE
CRATER/DIAMOND LAKE AREAS BY SUNDAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS SHOULD WATCH
FOR UPDATES AS WE NEAR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. -WRIGHT

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...THEN AREA
OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...MOSTLY OVER THE VALLEYS...
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.  THE LOWER AREAS WILL CLEAR
TO VFR BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...BUT CIGS 4-5KFT ABOVE SEA LEVEL WILL
DEVELOP AT THAT TIME. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.


MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
STEEP MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THE FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE AREA MONDAY.
SO...SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP WITH A WIND WAVE CHOP OVER THE SWELL
MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD TUESDAY AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE
FRIDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM
 TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY
   FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
 PZZ370-376.

$$

MAS/MAP/TRW/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 240442
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
842 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
IN SOME OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED...INCLUDING HERE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY...PORTIONS OF THE
ILLINOIS VALLEY AND THE LOWER KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH LOWER THAN WHERE
THEY CURRENTLY ARE, SO EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
WHERE IT STAYS CLEAR LONGER LIKE OVER THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST SIDE
AND IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...EVEN
SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE COLDER SPOTS.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TOO ALONG THE COAST. THE NEW 00Z NAM12 AND GFS40 ARE
STILL AT ODDS WITH HOW FAR PRECIPITATION WILL PENETRATE INLAND
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
NAM12 SHOWS SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN
AN AREA OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES
MONDAY MORNING THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT WITH THE FOCUS IN THE CASCADES AND THE COAST RANGES. IT
WOULD EVEN SUGGEST SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE NEW GFS40
AND THE 12Z ECMWF, HOWEVER, KEEP ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
THE OR/CA BORDER AND CONFINE IT TO THE COAST, THE UMPQUA BASIN AND
THE CASCADES. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES (SREF) ARE NOT AS BULLISH WITH
PRECIPITATION AS THE NAM12 WOULD SUGGEST, BUT HAVE IT FARTHER
INLAND THAN BOTH THE GFS40 AND THE ECWMF. THE SREF IS A FAIR
COMPROMISE AND THE GRIDS REFLECT THIS THINKING. EITHER WAY, WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE...WITH LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS (ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS HERE IN
MEDFORD) AND GENERALLY 0.10-0.30 OF AN INCH ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE CASCADES. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...THEN AREA
OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...MOSTLY OVER THE VALLEYS...
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.  THE LOWER AREAS WILL CLEAR
TO VFR BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...BUT CIGS 4-5KFT ABOVE SEA LEVEL WILL
DEVELOP AT THAT TIME. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
STEEP MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THE FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE AREA MONDAY.
SO...SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP WITH A WIND WAVE CHOP OVER THE SWELL
MONDAY.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD TUESDAY AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...FLAT RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY, BUT IT`S SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING UP AND
THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD SCATTER OUT TOWARDS EVENING. WE`LL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM
HAVE BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF, BUT THE 18Z
RUN SHOWS IT WEAKENING (ALMOST SPLITTING) AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NOW SHOWS MUCH LESS QPF FOR OUR AREA. THE EC
IS THE DRIEST, BUT NOT AS DRY AS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE THINKING IS
WE`LL END UP WITH A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT. WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST IF
NOT ALL WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXIST, THEREFORE WE THINK LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR
WESTSIDE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE WE`LL HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AGAIN FOR MOST OF NOT ALL WESTSIDE VALLEYS GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, BUT LOW
CLOUDS MAY NOT BREAK UP IN THE VALLEYS UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
-PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE THE
EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND THERE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SHIFT FROM RIDGING MID WEEK TO A
WETTER, ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE DETAILS SUCH AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
PARTICULAR SYSTEMS, BUT WE WERE ABLE TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND OF
POPS FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WE STARTED A FEW DAYS AGO.

REGARDING HOLIDAY TRAVEL: WHILE THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE WET, THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE MAJOR PASS LEVELS, SO MAJOR IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF
THE WEEKEND, AND SNOW MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT HIGHER PASSES LIKE
SISKIYOU SUMMIT, HIGHWAY 140 ACROSS THE CASCADES, AND THE
CRATER/DIAMOND LAKE AREAS BY SUNDAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS SHOULD WATCH
FOR UPDATES AS WE NEAR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. -WRIGHT

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...THEN AREA
OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...MOSTLY OVER THE VALLEYS...
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.  THE LOWER AREAS WILL CLEAR
TO VFR BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...BUT CIGS 4-5KFT ABOVE SEA LEVEL WILL
DEVELOP AT THAT TIME. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.


MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
STEEP MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THE FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE AREA MONDAY.
SO...SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP WITH A WIND WAVE CHOP OVER THE SWELL
MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD TUESDAY AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE
FRIDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM
 TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY
   FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
 PZZ370-376.

$$

MAS/MAP/TRW/JRS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 240332
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
832 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH OUR CWA
FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR NRN ZONES THIS
EVENING THEN IN ERN ZONES IN IDAHO LATER TONIGHT.  SOME CLEARING
EXPECTED MONDAY.  NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH /SEEN ON SATELLITE IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA THIS EVENING/ IS STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT WAVE.
MODELS BRING IT INTO OUR NRN AND ERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
AS THAT WAVE COMES IN...A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL ALSO COME
IN AND WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN TO OUR EAST.   THE RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE OUR WX THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH DRY MILD WEATHER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND A WEAK INVERSION WITH PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AT
THE SURFACE.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ON ALL THIS.  NO UPDATES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF
A KBKE-FAIRFIELD LINE...EXCEPT WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOCAL IFR SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS BEFORE 06Z...AND
PATCHY VALLEY FOG FROM ABOUT 10Z UNTIL 16Z. SNOW SHOWERS ENDING BY
18Z MONDAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT SOUTHWEST
AROUND 15 KTS FROM THE MAGIC VALLEY SOUTH INTO NEVADA. WINDS
ALOFT...NORTHWEST UP TO 35 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF A BURNS
TO BOISE TO FAIRFIELD LINE. THIS PRECIP WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
AREA MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN RIGHT ON ITS HEELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. EVEN AS THESE WAVES MOVE THROUGH...
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL RISE...MEANING WARMER TEMPS FOR THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. WE EXPECT A
WEAK INVERSION TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS NEITHER OF THE SYSTEMS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE
REMAINING COLD AIR.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AIR AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE FLATTENS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
PACIFIC MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 12Z
ECMWF/GFS KEEP THE ARCTIC FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVEL WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...AROUND 6000 FEET
MSL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY LOWERING TO NEAR 5000
FEET BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN AREAS
WHICH LACK SNOW COVER. INVERSION LOOKS LESS LIKELY NOW WITH A MUCH
WEAKER RIDGE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 240332
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
832 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH OUR CWA
FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR NRN ZONES THIS
EVENING THEN IN ERN ZONES IN IDAHO LATER TONIGHT.  SOME CLEARING
EXPECTED MONDAY.  NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH /SEEN ON SATELLITE IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA THIS EVENING/ IS STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT WAVE.
MODELS BRING IT INTO OUR NRN AND ERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
AS THAT WAVE COMES IN...A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL ALSO COME
IN AND WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN TO OUR EAST.   THE RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE OUR WX THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH DRY MILD WEATHER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND A WEAK INVERSION WITH PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AT
THE SURFACE.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ON ALL THIS.  NO UPDATES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF
A KBKE-FAIRFIELD LINE...EXCEPT WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOCAL IFR SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS BEFORE 06Z...AND
PATCHY VALLEY FOG FROM ABOUT 10Z UNTIL 16Z. SNOW SHOWERS ENDING BY
18Z MONDAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT SOUTHWEST
AROUND 15 KTS FROM THE MAGIC VALLEY SOUTH INTO NEVADA. WINDS
ALOFT...NORTHWEST UP TO 35 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF A BURNS
TO BOISE TO FAIRFIELD LINE. THIS PRECIP WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
AREA MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN RIGHT ON ITS HEELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. EVEN AS THESE WAVES MOVE THROUGH...
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL RISE...MEANING WARMER TEMPS FOR THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. WE EXPECT A
WEAK INVERSION TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS NEITHER OF THE SYSTEMS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE
REMAINING COLD AIR.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AIR AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE FLATTENS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
PACIFIC MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 12Z
ECMWF/GFS KEEP THE ARCTIC FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVEL WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...AROUND 6000 FEET
MSL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY LOWERING TO NEAR 5000
FEET BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN AREAS
WHICH LACK SNOW COVER. INVERSION LOOKS LESS LIKELY NOW WITH A MUCH
WEAKER RIDGE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS/WH



000
FXUS66 KPDT 232355 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
355 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA THIS EVENING
PRODUCING SOME RAIN SHOWERS SPECIFICALLY OVER AND NEAR THE
BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS...AND
OVER THE WA/OR CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DIP TOWARD 3500 FEET
TONIGHT AND LOCATIONS SUCH AS MEH AND TOLLGATE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO RACE SE
OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM EFFECTS THE TWO STATE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND RISING SNOW LEVELS. IN ADDITIONAL THE WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSING STORM SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A VERY BUSY
EXTENDED AS ACTIVE WEATHER THREATENS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA BY MID WEEK.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO OVERRUN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SPOKANE CWA.  SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL FLATTEN
OUT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY...PROVIDING A MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW TO THE AREA FOR THANKSGIVING.  RIGHT NOW HAVE NOT GONE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS ON THURSDAY...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL
RAIN...AND THERE MAY BE A DECENT RAINSHADOW AFFECT FOR THE BASIN.
SO 20-30 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
30-50 PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SOUTH LOOKS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE
CANADIAN COLD FRONT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  SATURDAY
ONWARD IS WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING.  THESE TWO AIR MASSES CONTINUE
TO BATTLE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND THERE IS STILL SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THE TIME IT WILL FALL.  THE CURRENT OVERALL CONSENSUS
INDICATES THAT THE COLD AIR WILL REACH ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF THE
I-84 CORRIDOR...AND ALL AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL SEE SNOW AS THE
GENERAL FORM OF PRECIPITATION.  CENTRAL OREGON AND THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS IS WHERE IT GETS CHALLENGING.  THESE AREAS COULD SEE A
RAIN SNOW MIX...OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN.  HAVE NOT INTRODUCED THE
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST DUE TO TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY.  BY
SUNDAY MORNING PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING AND MAY HAVE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND MAKE
UPDATED AS CHANGES OCCUR.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES THIS EVENING.  PEAK ACTIVITY SHOULD BE THROUGH 06Z...WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AT KALW AND KPDT THROUGH 09Z. KRDM...KBDN...AND
KYKM MAY ESCAPE THE SHOWERS DUE TO RAINSHADOWING.  WINDS WILL BE A
BIT BREEZY AS WELL WITH WIND SPEEDS 10-15KTS... GUSTING TO 25KTS AT
TIMES.  CIGS TONIGHT ARE IN QUESTION...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIST/FOG
INCREASES.  HAVE INTRODUCED LOWERED CIGS/VIS INTO THE MVFR/IFR
CATEGORY AT TAF SITES OF CONCERN. CIGS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AFTER
18Z AND BECOME SCT-BKN 7-10KFT. WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  35  48  40  58 /  20  10  40  30
ALW  35  48  42  60 /  20  10  40  40
PSC  34  48  40  58 /  10  10  40  30
YKM  30  42  33  53 /  10  10  30  30
HRI  34  49  40  58 /  10  10  40  30
ELN  27  42  33  52 /  10  10  40  30
RDM  27  47  34  61 /  10  10  30  20
LGD  32  45  34  53 /  40  10  50  60
GCD  25  41  31  55 /  30  10  40  30
DLS  35  51  40  54 /  30  10  40  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/89/89







000
FXUS66 KPDT 232355 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
355 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA THIS EVENING
PRODUCING SOME RAIN SHOWERS SPECIFICALLY OVER AND NEAR THE
BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS...AND
OVER THE WA/OR CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DIP TOWARD 3500 FEET
TONIGHT AND LOCATIONS SUCH AS MEH AND TOLLGATE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO RACE SE
OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM EFFECTS THE TWO STATE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND RISING SNOW LEVELS. IN ADDITIONAL THE WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSING STORM SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A VERY BUSY
EXTENDED AS ACTIVE WEATHER THREATENS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA BY MID WEEK.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO OVERRUN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SPOKANE CWA.  SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL FLATTEN
OUT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY...PROVIDING A MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW TO THE AREA FOR THANKSGIVING.  RIGHT NOW HAVE NOT GONE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS ON THURSDAY...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL
RAIN...AND THERE MAY BE A DECENT RAINSHADOW AFFECT FOR THE BASIN.
SO 20-30 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
30-50 PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SOUTH LOOKS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE
CANADIAN COLD FRONT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  SATURDAY
ONWARD IS WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING.  THESE TWO AIR MASSES CONTINUE
TO BATTLE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND THERE IS STILL SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THE TIME IT WILL FALL.  THE CURRENT OVERALL CONSENSUS
INDICATES THAT THE COLD AIR WILL REACH ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF THE
I-84 CORRIDOR...AND ALL AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL SEE SNOW AS THE
GENERAL FORM OF PRECIPITATION.  CENTRAL OREGON AND THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS IS WHERE IT GETS CHALLENGING.  THESE AREAS COULD SEE A
RAIN SNOW MIX...OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN.  HAVE NOT INTRODUCED THE
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST DUE TO TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY.  BY
SUNDAY MORNING PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING AND MAY HAVE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND MAKE
UPDATED AS CHANGES OCCUR.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES THIS EVENING.  PEAK ACTIVITY SHOULD BE THROUGH 06Z...WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AT KALW AND KPDT THROUGH 09Z. KRDM...KBDN...AND
KYKM MAY ESCAPE THE SHOWERS DUE TO RAINSHADOWING.  WINDS WILL BE A
BIT BREEZY AS WELL WITH WIND SPEEDS 10-15KTS... GUSTING TO 25KTS AT
TIMES.  CIGS TONIGHT ARE IN QUESTION...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIST/FOG
INCREASES.  HAVE INTRODUCED LOWERED CIGS/VIS INTO THE MVFR/IFR
CATEGORY AT TAF SITES OF CONCERN. CIGS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AFTER
18Z AND BECOME SCT-BKN 7-10KFT. WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  35  48  40  58 /  20  10  40  30
ALW  35  48  42  60 /  20  10  40  40
PSC  34  48  40  58 /  10  10  40  30
YKM  30  42  33  53 /  10  10  30  30
HRI  34  49  40  58 /  10  10  40  30
ELN  27  42  33  52 /  10  10  40  30
RDM  27  47  34  61 /  10  10  30  20
LGD  32  45  34  53 /  40  10  50  60
GCD  25  41  31  55 /  30  10  40  30
DLS  35  51  40  54 /  30  10  40  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/89/89






000
FXUS66 KPDT 232332 CCA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
220 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA THIS EVENING
PRODUCING SOME RAIN SHOWERS SPECIFICALLY OVER AND NEAR THE
BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS...AND
OVER THE WA/OR CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DIP TOWARD 3500 FEET
TONIGHT AND LOCATIONS SUCH AS MEH AND TOLLGATE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO RACE SE
OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM EFFECTS THE TWO STATE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND RISING SNOW LEVELS. IN ADDITIONAL THE WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSING STORM SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A VERY BUSY
EXTENDED AS ACTIVE WEATHER THREATENS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA BY MID WEEK.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO OVERRUN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SPOKANE CWA.  SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL FLATTEN
OUT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY...PROVIDING A MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW TO THE AREA FOR THANKSGIVING.  RIGHT NOW HAVE NOT GONE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS ON THURSDAY...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL
RAIN...AND THERE MAY BE A DECENT RAINSHADOW AFFECT FOR THE BASIN.
SO 20-30 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
30-50 PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SOUTH LOOKS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE
CANADIAN COLD FRONT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  SATURDAY
ONWARD IS WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING.  THESE TWO AIR MASSES CONTINUE
TO BATTLE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND THERE IS STILL SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THE TIME IT WILL FALL.  THE CURRENT OVERALL CONSENSUS
INDICATES THAT THE COLD AIR WILL REACH ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF THE
I-84 CORRIDOR...AND ALL AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL SEE SNOW AS THE
GENERAL FORM OF PRECIPITATION.  CENTRAL OREGON AND THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS IS WHERE IT GETS CHALLENGING.  THESE AREAS COULD SEE A
RAIN SNOW MIX...OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN.  HAVE NOT INTRODUCED THE
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST DUE TO TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY.  BY
SUNDAY MORNING PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING AND MAY HAVE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND MAKE
UPDATED AS CHANGES OCCUR.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.  PEAK ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FROM
21Z-03Z...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AT KALW AND KPDT FROM 03Z-09Z.
KRDM...KBDN...AND KYKM MAY ESCAPE THE SHOWERS DUE TO RAINSHADOWING.
WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY AS WELL WITH WIND SPEEDS 10-15KTS...
GUSTING TO 25KTS AT TIMES.  CIGS TONIGHT ARE IN QUESTION...AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MIST/FOG INCREASES.  HAVE INTRODUCED LOWERED CIGS/VIS
INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY AT TAF SITES OF CONCERN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  35  48  40  58 /  20  10  40  30
ALW  35  48  42  60 /  20  10  40  40
PSC  34  48  40  58 /  10  10  40  30
YKM  30  42  33  53 /  10  10  30  30
HRI  34  49  40  58 /  10  10  40  30
ELN  27  42  33  52 /  10  10  40  30
RDM  27  47  34  61 /  10  10  30  20
LGD  32  45  34  53 /  40  10  50  60
GCD  25  41  31  55 /  30  10  40  30
DLS  35  51  40  54 /  30  10  40  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/89/89






000
FXUS66 KPDT 232332 CCA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
220 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA THIS EVENING
PRODUCING SOME RAIN SHOWERS SPECIFICALLY OVER AND NEAR THE
BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS...AND
OVER THE WA/OR CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DIP TOWARD 3500 FEET
TONIGHT AND LOCATIONS SUCH AS MEH AND TOLLGATE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO RACE SE
OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM EFFECTS THE TWO STATE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND RISING SNOW LEVELS. IN ADDITIONAL THE WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSING STORM SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A VERY BUSY
EXTENDED AS ACTIVE WEATHER THREATENS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA BY MID WEEK.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO OVERRUN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SPOKANE CWA.  SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL FLATTEN
OUT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY...PROVIDING A MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW TO THE AREA FOR THANKSGIVING.  RIGHT NOW HAVE NOT GONE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS ON THURSDAY...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL
RAIN...AND THERE MAY BE A DECENT RAINSHADOW AFFECT FOR THE BASIN.
SO 20-30 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
30-50 PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SOUTH LOOKS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE
CANADIAN COLD FRONT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  SATURDAY
ONWARD IS WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING.  THESE TWO AIR MASSES CONTINUE
TO BATTLE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND THERE IS STILL SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THE TIME IT WILL FALL.  THE CURRENT OVERALL CONSENSUS
INDICATES THAT THE COLD AIR WILL REACH ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF THE
I-84 CORRIDOR...AND ALL AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL SEE SNOW AS THE
GENERAL FORM OF PRECIPITATION.  CENTRAL OREGON AND THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS IS WHERE IT GETS CHALLENGING.  THESE AREAS COULD SEE A
RAIN SNOW MIX...OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN.  HAVE NOT INTRODUCED THE
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST DUE TO TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY.  BY
SUNDAY MORNING PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING AND MAY HAVE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND MAKE
UPDATED AS CHANGES OCCUR.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.  PEAK ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FROM
21Z-03Z...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AT KALW AND KPDT FROM 03Z-09Z.
KRDM...KBDN...AND KYKM MAY ESCAPE THE SHOWERS DUE TO RAINSHADOWING.
WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY AS WELL WITH WIND SPEEDS 10-15KTS...
GUSTING TO 25KTS AT TIMES.  CIGS TONIGHT ARE IN QUESTION...AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MIST/FOG INCREASES.  HAVE INTRODUCED LOWERED CIGS/VIS
INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY AT TAF SITES OF CONCERN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  35  48  40  58 /  20  10  40  30
ALW  35  48  42  60 /  20  10  40  40
PSC  34  48  40  58 /  10  10  40  30
YKM  30  42  33  53 /  10  10  30  30
HRI  34  49  40  58 /  10  10  40  30
ELN  27  42  33  52 /  10  10  40  30
RDM  27  47  34  61 /  10  10  30  20
LGD  32  45  34  53 /  40  10  50  60
GCD  25  41  31  55 /  30  10  40  30
DLS  35  51  40  54 /  30  10  40  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/89/89







000
FXUS66 KPQR 232257
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
256 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT IS SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS NW OREGON THIS
EVENING...AND SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A WARMER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT STALLED
OVER SW WASHINGTON THIS MORNING HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO OREGON EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERATING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN
FOR NW OREGON. THE FRONT...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SALEM AREA AROUND 4 PM AND
POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER SOUTH THAN THAT...DOWN TO ALBANY AROUND 5 PM.
HOWEVER THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET...AND THINK THE
THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS WELL.

THE PRECIPITATION BAND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE
RAIN WILL DECREASE AS IT MOVES SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND AM NOT SURE
WHETHER ANY RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO EUGENE. IF SO...IT SHOULD BE BRIEF
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT THE RAIN TO END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES LEADING TO FOG IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS BY MONDAY
MORNING.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTH WILL MERGE WITH A COLDER FRONT TO THE NORTH OFFSHORE BEFORE
PUSHING ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARMER PORTION OF THE FRONT
WILL FIRST MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE COLDER FRONT
MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE
NE PACIFIC. THE RAIN SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN COAST
RANGE...COAST...AND NORTHERN CASCADES BY TUESDAY EVENING. BESIDES A
FEW MORNING SHOWERS OVER SW WASHINGTON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MOST
OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY. SHOULD BE A RETURN OF VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...MOVING ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES OF WHEN THE
RAIN WILL START. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT ONSHORE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL DAYBREAK. EXPECT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WILL BRING A MUCH STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM. SNOW
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND COULD DROP TO THE PASSES. AS OF NOW...IT
LOOKS LIKE WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR
THOSE RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED CONTINUE TO BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DETAILS OF THE
IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM NEXT WEEKENDS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM JUST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK THROUGH
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEAKEN FURTHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR FROM TIME TO TIME UNDERNEATH THE HEAVIER RAIN BAND.
THERE IS ALSO STILL ISOLATED THUNDER BEING DETECTED ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW SOME PATCHY MVFR OR IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS INTO THE COAST BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z MON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING
FRONT MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS INTO MVFR THROUGH 00Z. SOME
CLEARING TONIGHT MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY MON MORNING. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING FRONT HAS MOVED SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY...AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK. THERE IS STILL ISOLATED THUNDER BEING DETECTED ALONG
THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT THIS THREAT TO END BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
HAS WEAKENED...AND ARE NOW WESTERLY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.
THUS...WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS TO DROP OFF
AT 3 PM. EXPECT THE LULL IN THE WINDS TO LAST INTO EARLY MON. THEN
THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS TOMORROW. THE
LATEST FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. DECIDED TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH STARTING AT 10 AM.

WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MIGHT
BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT THE SCENARIO
DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE FORCE OR HIGHER
WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS.

SEAS HAVE COME UP JUST A BIT TODAY...AND ARE NOW AROUND 12 TO 14
FT. EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND MON. HOWEVER...EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT INTO EARLY WED. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM PST
     MONDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 232257
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
256 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT IS SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS NW OREGON THIS
EVENING...AND SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A WARMER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT STALLED
OVER SW WASHINGTON THIS MORNING HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO OREGON EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERATING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN
FOR NW OREGON. THE FRONT...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SALEM AREA AROUND 4 PM AND
POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER SOUTH THAN THAT...DOWN TO ALBANY AROUND 5 PM.
HOWEVER THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET...AND THINK THE
THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS WELL.

THE PRECIPITATION BAND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE
RAIN WILL DECREASE AS IT MOVES SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND AM NOT SURE
WHETHER ANY RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO EUGENE. IF SO...IT SHOULD BE BRIEF
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT THE RAIN TO END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES LEADING TO FOG IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS BY MONDAY
MORNING.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTH WILL MERGE WITH A COLDER FRONT TO THE NORTH OFFSHORE BEFORE
PUSHING ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARMER PORTION OF THE FRONT
WILL FIRST MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE COLDER FRONT
MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE
NE PACIFIC. THE RAIN SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN COAST
RANGE...COAST...AND NORTHERN CASCADES BY TUESDAY EVENING. BESIDES A
FEW MORNING SHOWERS OVER SW WASHINGTON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MOST
OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY. SHOULD BE A RETURN OF VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...MOVING ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES OF WHEN THE
RAIN WILL START. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT ONSHORE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL DAYBREAK. EXPECT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WILL BRING A MUCH STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM. SNOW
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND COULD DROP TO THE PASSES. AS OF NOW...IT
LOOKS LIKE WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR
THOSE RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED CONTINUE TO BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DETAILS OF THE
IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM NEXT WEEKENDS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM JUST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK THROUGH
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEAKEN FURTHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR FROM TIME TO TIME UNDERNEATH THE HEAVIER RAIN BAND.
THERE IS ALSO STILL ISOLATED THUNDER BEING DETECTED ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW SOME PATCHY MVFR OR IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS INTO THE COAST BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z MON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING
FRONT MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS INTO MVFR THROUGH 00Z. SOME
CLEARING TONIGHT MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY MON MORNING. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING FRONT HAS MOVED SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY...AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK. THERE IS STILL ISOLATED THUNDER BEING DETECTED ALONG
THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT THIS THREAT TO END BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
HAS WEAKENED...AND ARE NOW WESTERLY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.
THUS...WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS TO DROP OFF
AT 3 PM. EXPECT THE LULL IN THE WINDS TO LAST INTO EARLY MON. THEN
THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS TOMORROW. THE
LATEST FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. DECIDED TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH STARTING AT 10 AM.

WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MIGHT
BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT THE SCENARIO
DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE FORCE OR HIGHER
WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS.

SEAS HAVE COME UP JUST A BIT TODAY...AND ARE NOW AROUND 12 TO 14
FT. EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND MON. HOWEVER...EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT INTO EARLY WED. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM PST
     MONDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 232228 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
220 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA THIS EVENING
PRODUCING SOME RAIN SHOWERS SPECIFICALLY OVER AND NEAR THE
BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS...AND
OVER THE WA/OR CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DIP TOWARD 3500 FEET
TONIGHT AND LOCATIONS SUCH AS MEH AND TOLLGATE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO RACE SE
OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM EFFECTS THE TWO STATE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND RISING SNOW LEVELS. IN ADDITIONAL THE WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSING STORM SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A VERY BUSY
EXTENDED AS ACTIVE WEATHER THREATENS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA BY MID WEEK.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO OVERRUN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SPOKANE CWA.  SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL FLATTEN
OUT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY...PROVIDING A MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW TO THE AREA FOR THANKSGIVING.  RIGHT NOW HAVE NOT GONE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS ON THURSDAY...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL
RAIN...AND THERE MAY BE A DECENT RAINSHADOW AFFECT FOR THE BASIN.
SO 20-30 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
30-50 PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SOUTH LOOKS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE
CANADIAN COLD FRONT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  SATURDAY
ONWARD IS WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING.  THESE TWO AIR MASSES CONTINUE
TO BATTLE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND THERE IS STILL SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THE TIME IT WILL FALL.  THE CURRENT OVERALL CONSENSUS
INDICATES THAT THE COLD AIR WILL REACH ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF THE
I-84 CORRIDOR...AND ALL AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL SEE SNOW AS THE
GENERAL FORM OF PRECIPITATION.  CENTRAL OREGON AND THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS IS WHERE IT GETS CHALLENGING.  THESE AREAS COULD SEE A
RAIN SNOW MIX...OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN.  HAVE NOT INTRODUCED THE
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST DUE TO TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY.  BY
SUNDAY MORNING PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING AND MAY HAVE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND MAKE
UPDATED AS CHANGES OCCUR.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  35  48  40  58 /  20  10  40  30
ALW  35  48  42  60 /  20  10  40  40
PSC  34  48  40  58 /  10  10  40  30
YKM  30  42  33  53 /  10  10  30  30
HRI  34  49  40  58 /  10  10  40  30
ELN  27  42  33  52 /  10  10  40  30
RDM  27  47  34  61 /  10  10  30  20
LGD  32  45  34  53 /  40  10  50  60
GCD  25  41  31  55 /  30  10  40  30
DLS  35  51  40  54 /  30  10  40  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/89/89








000
FXUS66 KPDT 232228 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
220 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA THIS EVENING
PRODUCING SOME RAIN SHOWERS SPECIFICALLY OVER AND NEAR THE
BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS...AND
OVER THE WA/OR CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DIP TOWARD 3500 FEET
TONIGHT AND LOCATIONS SUCH AS MEH AND TOLLGATE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO RACE SE
OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM EFFECTS THE TWO STATE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND RISING SNOW LEVELS. IN ADDITIONAL THE WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSING STORM SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A VERY BUSY
EXTENDED AS ACTIVE WEATHER THREATENS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA BY MID WEEK.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO OVERRUN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SPOKANE CWA.  SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL FLATTEN
OUT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY...PROVIDING A MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW TO THE AREA FOR THANKSGIVING.  RIGHT NOW HAVE NOT GONE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS ON THURSDAY...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL
RAIN...AND THERE MAY BE A DECENT RAINSHADOW AFFECT FOR THE BASIN.
SO 20-30 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
30-50 PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SOUTH LOOKS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE
CANADIAN COLD FRONT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  SATURDAY
ONWARD IS WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING.  THESE TWO AIR MASSES CONTINUE
TO BATTLE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND THERE IS STILL SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THE TIME IT WILL FALL.  THE CURRENT OVERALL CONSENSUS
INDICATES THAT THE COLD AIR WILL REACH ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF THE
I-84 CORRIDOR...AND ALL AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL SEE SNOW AS THE
GENERAL FORM OF PRECIPITATION.  CENTRAL OREGON AND THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS IS WHERE IT GETS CHALLENGING.  THESE AREAS COULD SEE A
RAIN SNOW MIX...OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN.  HAVE NOT INTRODUCED THE
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST DUE TO TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY.  BY
SUNDAY MORNING PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING AND MAY HAVE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND MAKE
UPDATED AS CHANGES OCCUR.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  35  48  40  58 /  20  10  40  30
ALW  35  48  42  60 /  20  10  40  40
PSC  34  48  40  58 /  10  10  40  30
YKM  30  42  33  53 /  10  10  30  30
HRI  34  49  40  58 /  10  10  40  30
ELN  27  42  33  52 /  10  10  40  30
RDM  27  47  34  61 /  10  10  30  20
LGD  32  45  34  53 /  40  10  50  60
GCD  25  41  31  55 /  30  10  40  30
DLS  35  51  40  54 /  30  10  40  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/89/89









000
FXUS66 KMFR 232222 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
222 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...FLAT RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY, BUT IT`S SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING UP AND
THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD SCATTER OUT TOWARDS EVENING. WE`LL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM
HAVE BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF, BUT THE 18Z
RUN SHOWS IT WEAKENING (ALMOST SPLITTING) AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NOW SHOWS MUCH LESS QPF FOR OUR AREA. THE EC
IS THE DRIEST, BUT NOT AS DRY AS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE THINKING IS
WE`LL END UP WITH A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT. WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST IF
NOT ALL WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXIST, THEREFORE WE THINK LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR
WESTSIDE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE WE`LL HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AGAIN FOR MOST OF NOT ALL WESTSIDE VALLEYS GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, BUT LOW
CLOUDS MAY NOT BREAK UP IN THE VALLEYS UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
-PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE THE
EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND THERE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SHIFT FROM RIDGING MID WEEK TO A
WETTER, ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE DETAILS SUCH AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
PARTICULAR SYSTEMS, BUT WE WERE ABLE TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND OF
POPS FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WE STARTED A FEW DAYS AGO.

REGARDING HOLIDAY TRAVEL: WHILE THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE WET, THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE MAJOR PASS LEVELS, SO MAJOR IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF
THE WEEKEND, AND SNOW MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT HIGHER PASSES LIKE
SISKIYOU SUMMIT, HIGHWAY 140 ACROSS THE CASCADES, AND THE
CRATER/DIAMOND LAKE AREAS BY SUNDAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS SHOULD WATCH
FOR UPDATES AS WE NEAR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. -WRIGHT

&&

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...THEN AREA
OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...MOSTLY OVER THE VALLEYS...
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.  THE LOWER AREAS WILL CLEAR
TO VFR BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...BUT CIGS 4-5KFT ABOVE SEA LEVEL WILL
DEVELOP AT THAT TIME. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
STEEP MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THE FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE AREA MONDAY.
SO...SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP WITH A WIND WAVE CHOP OVER THE SWELL
MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD TUESDAY AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE
FRIDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM
        TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST
        MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY
        FOR PZZ370-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 232222 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
222 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...FLAT RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY, BUT IT`S SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING UP AND
THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD SCATTER OUT TOWARDS EVENING. WE`LL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM
HAVE BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF, BUT THE 18Z
RUN SHOWS IT WEAKENING (ALMOST SPLITTING) AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NOW SHOWS MUCH LESS QPF FOR OUR AREA. THE EC
IS THE DRIEST, BUT NOT AS DRY AS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE THINKING IS
WE`LL END UP WITH A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT. WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST IF
NOT ALL WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXIST, THEREFORE WE THINK LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR
WESTSIDE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE WE`LL HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AGAIN FOR MOST OF NOT ALL WESTSIDE VALLEYS GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, BUT LOW
CLOUDS MAY NOT BREAK UP IN THE VALLEYS UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
-PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE THE
EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND THERE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SHIFT FROM RIDGING MID WEEK TO A
WETTER, ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE DETAILS SUCH AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
PARTICULAR SYSTEMS, BUT WE WERE ABLE TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND OF
POPS FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WE STARTED A FEW DAYS AGO.

REGARDING HOLIDAY TRAVEL: WHILE THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE WET, THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE MAJOR PASS LEVELS, SO MAJOR IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF
THE WEEKEND, AND SNOW MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT HIGHER PASSES LIKE
SISKIYOU SUMMIT, HIGHWAY 140 ACROSS THE CASCADES, AND THE
CRATER/DIAMOND LAKE AREAS BY SUNDAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS SHOULD WATCH
FOR UPDATES AS WE NEAR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. -WRIGHT

&&

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...THEN AREA
OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...MOSTLY OVER THE VALLEYS...
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.  THE LOWER AREAS WILL CLEAR
TO VFR BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...BUT CIGS 4-5KFT ABOVE SEA LEVEL WILL
DEVELOP AT THAT TIME. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
STEEP MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THE FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE AREA MONDAY.
SO...SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP WITH A WIND WAVE CHOP OVER THE SWELL
MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD TUESDAY AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE
FRIDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM
        TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST
        MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY
        FOR PZZ370-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 232222
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
222 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...FLAT RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY, BUT IT`S SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING UP AND THERE IS A CHANCE
IT COULD SCATTER OUT TOWARDS EVENING. WE`LL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS
EVENING, THEN A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHWEST OREGON
TONIGHT. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF, BUT THE 18Z RUN SHOWS IT WEAKENING (ALMOST
SPLITTING) AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NOW SHOWS MUCH LESS
QPF FOR OUR AREA. THE EC IS THE DRIEST, BUT NOT AS DRY AS PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE THINKING IS WE`LL END UP WITH A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT.
WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT
AND MOST IF NOT ALL WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY MORNING. PLENTY
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXIST, THEREFORE WE THINK LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR
WESTSIDE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE WE`LL HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AGAIN FOR MOST OF NOT ALL WESTSIDE VALLEYS GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, BUT LOW
CLOUDS MAY NOT BREAK UP IN THE VALLEYS UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
-PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE THE
EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND THERE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SHIFT FROM RIDGING MID WEEK TO A
WETTER, ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE DETAILS SUCH AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
PARTICULAR SYSTEMS, BUT WE WERE ABLE TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND OF
POPS FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WE STARTED A FEW DAYS AGO.

REGARDING HOLIDAY TRAVEL: WHILE THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE WET, THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE MAJOR PASS LEVELS, SO MAJOR IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF
THE WEEKEND, AND SNOW MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT HIGHER PASSES LIKE
SISKIYOU SUMMIT, HIGHWAY 140 ACROSS THE CASCADES, AND THE
CRATER/DIAMOND LAKE AREAS BY SUNDAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS SHOULD WATCH
FOR UPDATES AS WE NEAR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VIS
WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUD IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY
LATE MORNING THEN DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014... STEEP WEST SWELL WILL
PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY, THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 20 KT ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST ONE MODEL
SHOWS 25 KT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEN A COUPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND
SEAS.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     PZZ370-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 232222
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
222 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...FLAT RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY, BUT IT`S SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING UP AND THERE IS A CHANCE
IT COULD SCATTER OUT TOWARDS EVENING. WE`LL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS
EVENING, THEN A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHWEST OREGON
TONIGHT. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF, BUT THE 18Z RUN SHOWS IT WEAKENING (ALMOST
SPLITTING) AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NOW SHOWS MUCH LESS
QPF FOR OUR AREA. THE EC IS THE DRIEST, BUT NOT AS DRY AS PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE THINKING IS WE`LL END UP WITH A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT.
WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT
AND MOST IF NOT ALL WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY MORNING. PLENTY
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXIST, THEREFORE WE THINK LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR
WESTSIDE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE WE`LL HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AGAIN FOR MOST OF NOT ALL WESTSIDE VALLEYS GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, BUT LOW
CLOUDS MAY NOT BREAK UP IN THE VALLEYS UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
-PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE THE
EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND THERE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SHIFT FROM RIDGING MID WEEK TO A
WETTER, ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE DETAILS SUCH AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
PARTICULAR SYSTEMS, BUT WE WERE ABLE TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND OF
POPS FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WE STARTED A FEW DAYS AGO.

REGARDING HOLIDAY TRAVEL: WHILE THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE WET, THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE MAJOR PASS LEVELS, SO MAJOR IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF
THE WEEKEND, AND SNOW MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT HIGHER PASSES LIKE
SISKIYOU SUMMIT, HIGHWAY 140 ACROSS THE CASCADES, AND THE
CRATER/DIAMOND LAKE AREAS BY SUNDAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS SHOULD WATCH
FOR UPDATES AS WE NEAR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VIS
WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUD IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY
LATE MORNING THEN DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014... STEEP WEST SWELL WILL
PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY, THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 20 KT ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST ONE MODEL
SHOWS 25 KT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEN A COUPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND
SEAS.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     PZZ370-376.

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 232203
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
303 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF A
BURNS TO BOISE TO FAIRFIELD LINE. THIS PRECIP WILL MOVE EAST OUT
OF THE AREA MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN RIGHT ON ITS
HEELS MONDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. EVEN AS THESE WAVES MOVE
THROUGH...HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL RISE...MEANING WARMER TEMPS
FOR THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. WE
EXPECT A WEAK INVERSION TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS NEITHER OF THE SYSTEMS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO
SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING COLD AIR.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AIR AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE FLATTENS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
PACIFIC MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 12Z
ECMWF/GFS KEEP THE ARCTIC FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...AROUND 6000
FEET ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY LOWERING TO NEAR 5000
FEET BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN AREAS
WHICH LACK SNOW COVER. INVERSION LOOKS LESS LIKELY NOW WITH A MUCH
WEAKER RIDGE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...EXCEPT FOR MVFR-IFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM KBKE-KBOI-KSUN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG
LIKELY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS DEVELOPING AROUND 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K
FEET MSL...NW 25-35KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 232203
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
303 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF A
BURNS TO BOISE TO FAIRFIELD LINE. THIS PRECIP WILL MOVE EAST OUT
OF THE AREA MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN RIGHT ON ITS
HEELS MONDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. EVEN AS THESE WAVES MOVE
THROUGH...HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL RISE...MEANING WARMER TEMPS
FOR THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. WE
EXPECT A WEAK INVERSION TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS NEITHER OF THE SYSTEMS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO
SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING COLD AIR.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AIR AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE FLATTENS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
PACIFIC MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 12Z
ECMWF/GFS KEEP THE ARCTIC FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...AROUND 6000
FEET ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY LOWERING TO NEAR 5000
FEET BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN AREAS
WHICH LACK SNOW COVER. INVERSION LOOKS LESS LIKELY NOW WITH A MUCH
WEAKER RIDGE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...EXCEPT FOR MVFR-IFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM KBKE-KBOI-KSUN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG
LIKELY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS DEVELOPING AROUND 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K
FEET MSL...NW 25-35KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 232203
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
303 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF A
BURNS TO BOISE TO FAIRFIELD LINE. THIS PRECIP WILL MOVE EAST OUT
OF THE AREA MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN RIGHT ON ITS
HEELS MONDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. EVEN AS THESE WAVES MOVE
THROUGH...HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL RISE...MEANING WARMER TEMPS
FOR THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. WE
EXPECT A WEAK INVERSION TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS NEITHER OF THE SYSTEMS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO
SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING COLD AIR.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AIR AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE FLATTENS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
PACIFIC MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 12Z
ECMWF/GFS KEEP THE ARCTIC FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...AROUND 6000
FEET ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY LOWERING TO NEAR 5000
FEET BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN AREAS
WHICH LACK SNOW COVER. INVERSION LOOKS LESS LIKELY NOW WITH A MUCH
WEAKER RIDGE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...EXCEPT FOR MVFR-IFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM KBKE-KBOI-KSUN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG
LIKELY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS DEVELOPING AROUND 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K
FEET MSL...NW 25-35KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 232203
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
303 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF A
BURNS TO BOISE TO FAIRFIELD LINE. THIS PRECIP WILL MOVE EAST OUT
OF THE AREA MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN RIGHT ON ITS
HEELS MONDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. EVEN AS THESE WAVES MOVE
THROUGH...HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL RISE...MEANING WARMER TEMPS
FOR THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. WE
EXPECT A WEAK INVERSION TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS NEITHER OF THE SYSTEMS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO
SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING COLD AIR.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AIR AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE FLATTENS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
PACIFIC MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 12Z
ECMWF/GFS KEEP THE ARCTIC FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...AROUND 6000
FEET ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY LOWERING TO NEAR 5000
FEET BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN AREAS
WHICH LACK SNOW COVER. INVERSION LOOKS LESS LIKELY NOW WITH A MUCH
WEAKER RIDGE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...EXCEPT FOR MVFR-IFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM KBKE-KBOI-KSUN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG
LIKELY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS DEVELOPING AROUND 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K
FEET MSL...NW 25-35KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 232203
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
303 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF A
BURNS TO BOISE TO FAIRFIELD LINE. THIS PRECIP WILL MOVE EAST OUT
OF THE AREA MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN RIGHT ON ITS
HEELS MONDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. EVEN AS THESE WAVES MOVE
THROUGH...HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL RISE...MEANING WARMER TEMPS
FOR THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. WE
EXPECT A WEAK INVERSION TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS NEITHER OF THE SYSTEMS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO
SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING COLD AIR.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AIR AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE FLATTENS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
PACIFIC MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 12Z
ECMWF/GFS KEEP THE ARCTIC FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...AROUND 6000
FEET ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY LOWERING TO NEAR 5000
FEET BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN AREAS
WHICH LACK SNOW COVER. INVERSION LOOKS LESS LIKELY NOW WITH A MUCH
WEAKER RIDGE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...EXCEPT FOR MVFR-IFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM KBKE-KBOI-KSUN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG
LIKELY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS DEVELOPING AROUND 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K
FEET MSL...NW 25-35KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS66 KPQR 231813
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1012 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND
NW OREGON THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT WILL STALL OVER NW WASHINGTON BEFORE FALLING
A PART OVER NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS
EXPECTED FOR WASHINGTON THIS MORNING WITH LESS ACCUMULATIONS FOR
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OREGON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH FOR SYSTEMS TO CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH OCCASIONAL
WET WEATHER. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY BUILD IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH FOG POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR
THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...THE LONE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. A FEW CELLS
ARE SPROUTING UP AHEAD OF THIS LINE. ONE IN PARTICULAR...JUST OFF OF
LONG BEACH WA HAD STRONG ROTATION SIGNATURES INDICATIVE OF A TORNADO
AND A TORNADO WARNING WAS ISSUED AS THE STORM TRACKED INLAND. THE
STORM FINALLY WEAKENED OVER NASELLE WA. WE HAVE RECEIVED NO
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THIS STORM TO VERIFY OR DENY THE PRESENCE OF A
TORNADO. ONE SPOTTER JUST NORTH OF LONG BEACH HAD PEA-SIZE HAIL AND
LIGHTNING AND DID NOT SEE THE ROTATION. HOWEVER...THE BEST VIEWING OF
ANY ROTATION WOULD BE SOUTH OF THE STORM...AND SOUTH OF LONG BEACH.
VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE A THREAT FOR WEAKLY
ORGANIZED STORMS THROUGH NOON TODAY. MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
OVER THE WATERS...BUT THEY MAY OCCASIONAL MOVE ONSHORE. WE WILL BE
MONITORING RADAR CLOSELY THIS MORNING.

THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED .3 TO .5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3 HOURS
NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONVECTIVE BAND. HOWEVER STILL THINK THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES
WILL SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET AND HAVE NOT MADE
ANY CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THE UPDATE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY DRY BUT CLOUDY. BUT
THE THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG INCREASES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
AND BRINGING SOME PRECIP MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES BY
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT THIS PATTERN OF NORTHERN SHOWERS WITH SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TJ/27

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY. BUT ONCE
WE GET TO THANKSGIVING MORNING...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY CONCERNING THE
NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE 06Z GFS SHOWS A RATHER WELL-ORGANIZED FRONTAL BAND REACHING THE
SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON COAST IN THE MORNING...WITH RAIN SPREADING
INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DINNER. WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF DOES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT MAINTAINS ITS LIGHTER RAIN/RIDGY SOLUTION. A MUCH
STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD POSE A THREAT TO TRAVELERS RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE STILL UNKNOWN AND WILL BE REFINED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. /64/27

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. A FRONT ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
FRONT IS FCST TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST OREGON LATER
THIS MORNING...BUT IT MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AT KAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THE KPDX METRO TAF SITES TOWARDS
MIDDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST TOWARDS 12Z
MONDAY FOR THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES. FARTHER SOUTH WHERE
CLEARING THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...IFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT KEUG...KSLE AND EVEN KHIO TOWARDS 12Z
MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A DYING FRONT MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS INTO MVFR AROUND
MIDDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST WELL
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...OR PERHAPS DETERIORATE INTO HIGH END IFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
PYLE/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A SLOW MOVING FRONT BROUGHT A BAND OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE W WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
BASED ON SEVERAL REPORTS OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST...DECIDED TO
ISSUE A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE WATERS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR. EXPECT PERIODIC GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KT ALONG
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN WINDS DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. SEAS IN
THE 12 TO 13 FT RANGE AT CURRENT WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE MID TEENS
LATER TODAY BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...BUT ASIDE
FROM SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT. WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS EARLY TO MID WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS MIGHT BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT
THE SCENARIO DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE
FORCE OR HIGHER WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS. PYLE/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR

     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
     PST MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231813
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1012 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND
NW OREGON THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT WILL STALL OVER NW WASHINGTON BEFORE FALLING
A PART OVER NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS
EXPECTED FOR WASHINGTON THIS MORNING WITH LESS ACCUMULATIONS FOR
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OREGON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH FOR SYSTEMS TO CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH OCCASIONAL
WET WEATHER. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY BUILD IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH FOG POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR
THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...THE LONE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. A FEW CELLS
ARE SPROUTING UP AHEAD OF THIS LINE. ONE IN PARTICULAR...JUST OFF OF
LONG BEACH WA HAD STRONG ROTATION SIGNATURES INDICATIVE OF A TORNADO
AND A TORNADO WARNING WAS ISSUED AS THE STORM TRACKED INLAND. THE
STORM FINALLY WEAKENED OVER NASELLE WA. WE HAVE RECEIVED NO
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THIS STORM TO VERIFY OR DENY THE PRESENCE OF A
TORNADO. ONE SPOTTER JUST NORTH OF LONG BEACH HAD PEA-SIZE HAIL AND
LIGHTNING AND DID NOT SEE THE ROTATION. HOWEVER...THE BEST VIEWING OF
ANY ROTATION WOULD BE SOUTH OF THE STORM...AND SOUTH OF LONG BEACH.
VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE A THREAT FOR WEAKLY
ORGANIZED STORMS THROUGH NOON TODAY. MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
OVER THE WATERS...BUT THEY MAY OCCASIONAL MOVE ONSHORE. WE WILL BE
MONITORING RADAR CLOSELY THIS MORNING.

THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED .3 TO .5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3 HOURS
NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONVECTIVE BAND. HOWEVER STILL THINK THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES
WILL SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET AND HAVE NOT MADE
ANY CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THE UPDATE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY DRY BUT CLOUDY. BUT
THE THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG INCREASES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
AND BRINGING SOME PRECIP MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES BY
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT THIS PATTERN OF NORTHERN SHOWERS WITH SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TJ/27

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY. BUT ONCE
WE GET TO THANKSGIVING MORNING...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY CONCERNING THE
NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE 06Z GFS SHOWS A RATHER WELL-ORGANIZED FRONTAL BAND REACHING THE
SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON COAST IN THE MORNING...WITH RAIN SPREADING
INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DINNER. WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF DOES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT MAINTAINS ITS LIGHTER RAIN/RIDGY SOLUTION. A MUCH
STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD POSE A THREAT TO TRAVELERS RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE STILL UNKNOWN AND WILL BE REFINED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. /64/27

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. A FRONT ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
FRONT IS FCST TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST OREGON LATER
THIS MORNING...BUT IT MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AT KAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THE KPDX METRO TAF SITES TOWARDS
MIDDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST TOWARDS 12Z
MONDAY FOR THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES. FARTHER SOUTH WHERE
CLEARING THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...IFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT KEUG...KSLE AND EVEN KHIO TOWARDS 12Z
MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A DYING FRONT MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS INTO MVFR AROUND
MIDDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST WELL
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...OR PERHAPS DETERIORATE INTO HIGH END IFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
PYLE/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A SLOW MOVING FRONT BROUGHT A BAND OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE W WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
BASED ON SEVERAL REPORTS OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST...DECIDED TO
ISSUE A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE WATERS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR. EXPECT PERIODIC GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KT ALONG
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN WINDS DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. SEAS IN
THE 12 TO 13 FT RANGE AT CURRENT WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE MID TEENS
LATER TODAY BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...BUT ASIDE
FROM SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT. WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS EARLY TO MID WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS MIGHT BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT
THE SCENARIO DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE
FORCE OR HIGHER WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS. PYLE/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR

     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
     PST MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 231748 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
947 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF PCPN STRIKING
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES WITH MOSTLY RAIN AROUND CLE ELUM AND EASTON.
THE PCPN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL RACE ACROSS THE
TWO STATE AREA TODAY PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER MOST PORTIONS OF OUR
REGION. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE REGION PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL TIGHTEN TO CREATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO SKY COVER...PCPN...TEMPS...WINDS AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON.  PEAK ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FROM 21Z-03Z...WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AT KALW AND KPDT FROM 03Z-09Z. KRDM...KBDN...AND
KYKM MAY ESCAPE THE SHOWERS DUE TO RAINSHADOWING.  WINDS WILL BE A
BIT BREEZY AS WELL WITH WIND SPEEDS 10-15KTS...GUSTING TO 25KTS AT
TIMES.  CIGS TONIGHT ARE IN QUESTION...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIST/FOG
INCREASES.  HAVE INTRODUCED LOWERED CIGS/VIS INTO THE MVFR/IFR
CATEGORY AT TAF SITES OF CONCERN.  WEBER



&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 359 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
A SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
4000` WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR MONDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH ALONG
WITH A GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE RAIN. FREEZING LEVELS
WILL BE RISING AND SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES WILL RECEIVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH THIS
PATTERN. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY
IN MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 94

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE NORTHWEST COAST WHILE A FLAT MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH
RUNNING THROUGH SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON.
TH ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND THE FACT THAT THE TROUGH MAKES ONLY
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD TOWARD FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TRANSLATES TO A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS THE 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF RUNS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE3Y HANDLE THE RIDGE
ALONG THE COAST. THE GFS INCREASES THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE, WHICH
PREVENTS SOUTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ATTENDANT
PRECIPITATION AND KEEPS SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY HIGH, WHILE THE ECMWF
WEAKENS THE RIDGE, WHICH ALLOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH
INTO FORECAST AREA FOR INCREASING POPS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS. SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE TO MAKE ALLOWANCE FOR POSSIBLE SLOP OVER OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES INTO THE
KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST AND SPREADS MOISTURE AND
INCREASING POPS EAST OF CASCADES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  35  48  40 /  30  10  10  40
ALW  51  35  48  42 /  30  10  10  40
PSC  53  34  48  40 /  20  10  10  40
YKM  52  30  46  33 /  30  10  10  30
HRI  53  34  49  40 /  30  10  10  40
ELN  52  27  45  33 /  40  10  10  40
RDM  45  27  45  34 /  20  10  10  20
LGD  44  32  41  34 /  60  30  10  50
GCD  43  25  41  31 /  30  30  10  30
DLS  52  35  49  40 /  40  20  10  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 231748 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
947 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF PCPN STRIKING
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES WITH MOSTLY RAIN AROUND CLE ELUM AND EASTON.
THE PCPN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL RACE ACROSS THE
TWO STATE AREA TODAY PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER MOST PORTIONS OF OUR
REGION. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE REGION PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL TIGHTEN TO CREATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO SKY COVER...PCPN...TEMPS...WINDS AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON.  PEAK ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FROM 21Z-03Z...WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AT KALW AND KPDT FROM 03Z-09Z. KRDM...KBDN...AND
KYKM MAY ESCAPE THE SHOWERS DUE TO RAINSHADOWING.  WINDS WILL BE A
BIT BREEZY AS WELL WITH WIND SPEEDS 10-15KTS...GUSTING TO 25KTS AT
TIMES.  CIGS TONIGHT ARE IN QUESTION...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIST/FOG
INCREASES.  HAVE INTRODUCED LOWERED CIGS/VIS INTO THE MVFR/IFR
CATEGORY AT TAF SITES OF CONCERN.  WEBER



&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 359 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
A SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
4000` WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR MONDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH ALONG
WITH A GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE RAIN. FREEZING LEVELS
WILL BE RISING AND SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES WILL RECEIVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH THIS
PATTERN. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY
IN MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 94

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE NORTHWEST COAST WHILE A FLAT MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH
RUNNING THROUGH SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON.
TH ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND THE FACT THAT THE TROUGH MAKES ONLY
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD TOWARD FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TRANSLATES TO A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS THE 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF RUNS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE3Y HANDLE THE RIDGE
ALONG THE COAST. THE GFS INCREASES THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE, WHICH
PREVENTS SOUTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ATTENDANT
PRECIPITATION AND KEEPS SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY HIGH, WHILE THE ECMWF
WEAKENS THE RIDGE, WHICH ALLOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH
INTO FORECAST AREA FOR INCREASING POPS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS. SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE TO MAKE ALLOWANCE FOR POSSIBLE SLOP OVER OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES INTO THE
KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST AND SPREADS MOISTURE AND
INCREASING POPS EAST OF CASCADES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  35  48  40 /  30  10  10  40
ALW  51  35  48  42 /  30  10  10  40
PSC  53  34  48  40 /  20  10  10  40
YKM  52  30  46  33 /  30  10  10  30
HRI  53  34  49  40 /  30  10  10  40
ELN  52  27  45  33 /  40  10  10  40
RDM  45  27  45  34 /  20  10  10  20
LGD  44  32  41  34 /  60  30  10  50
GCD  43  25  41  31 /  30  30  10  30
DLS  52  35  49  40 /  40  20  10  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 231748 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
947 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF PCPN STRIKING
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES WITH MOSTLY RAIN AROUND CLE ELUM AND EASTON.
THE PCPN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL RACE ACROSS THE
TWO STATE AREA TODAY PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER MOST PORTIONS OF OUR
REGION. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE REGION PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL TIGHTEN TO CREATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO SKY COVER...PCPN...TEMPS...WINDS AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON.  PEAK ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FROM 21Z-03Z...WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AT KALW AND KPDT FROM 03Z-09Z. KRDM...KBDN...AND
KYKM MAY ESCAPE THE SHOWERS DUE TO RAINSHADOWING.  WINDS WILL BE A
BIT BREEZY AS WELL WITH WIND SPEEDS 10-15KTS...GUSTING TO 25KTS AT
TIMES.  CIGS TONIGHT ARE IN QUESTION...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIST/FOG
INCREASES.  HAVE INTRODUCED LOWERED CIGS/VIS INTO THE MVFR/IFR
CATEGORY AT TAF SITES OF CONCERN.  WEBER



&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 359 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
A SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
4000` WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR MONDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH ALONG
WITH A GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE RAIN. FREEZING LEVELS
WILL BE RISING AND SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES WILL RECEIVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH THIS
PATTERN. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY
IN MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 94

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE NORTHWEST COAST WHILE A FLAT MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH
RUNNING THROUGH SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON.
TH ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND THE FACT THAT THE TROUGH MAKES ONLY
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD TOWARD FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TRANSLATES TO A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS THE 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF RUNS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE3Y HANDLE THE RIDGE
ALONG THE COAST. THE GFS INCREASES THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE, WHICH
PREVENTS SOUTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ATTENDANT
PRECIPITATION AND KEEPS SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY HIGH, WHILE THE ECMWF
WEAKENS THE RIDGE, WHICH ALLOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH
INTO FORECAST AREA FOR INCREASING POPS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS. SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE TO MAKE ALLOWANCE FOR POSSIBLE SLOP OVER OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES INTO THE
KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST AND SPREADS MOISTURE AND
INCREASING POPS EAST OF CASCADES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  35  48  40 /  30  10  10  40
ALW  51  35  48  42 /  30  10  10  40
PSC  53  34  48  40 /  20  10  10  40
YKM  52  30  46  33 /  30  10  10  30
HRI  53  34  49  40 /  30  10  10  40
ELN  52  27  45  33 /  40  10  10  40
RDM  45  27  45  34 /  20  10  10  20
LGD  44  32  41  34 /  60  30  10  50
GCD  43  25  41  31 /  30  30  10  30
DLS  52  35  49  40 /  40  20  10  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 231748 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
947 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF PCPN STRIKING
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES WITH MOSTLY RAIN AROUND CLE ELUM AND EASTON.
THE PCPN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL RACE ACROSS THE
TWO STATE AREA TODAY PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER MOST PORTIONS OF OUR
REGION. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE REGION PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL TIGHTEN TO CREATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO SKY COVER...PCPN...TEMPS...WINDS AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON.  PEAK ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FROM 21Z-03Z...WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AT KALW AND KPDT FROM 03Z-09Z. KRDM...KBDN...AND
KYKM MAY ESCAPE THE SHOWERS DUE TO RAINSHADOWING.  WINDS WILL BE A
BIT BREEZY AS WELL WITH WIND SPEEDS 10-15KTS...GUSTING TO 25KTS AT
TIMES.  CIGS TONIGHT ARE IN QUESTION...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIST/FOG
INCREASES.  HAVE INTRODUCED LOWERED CIGS/VIS INTO THE MVFR/IFR
CATEGORY AT TAF SITES OF CONCERN.  WEBER



&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 359 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
A SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
4000` WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR MONDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH ALONG
WITH A GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE RAIN. FREEZING LEVELS
WILL BE RISING AND SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES WILL RECEIVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH THIS
PATTERN. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY
IN MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 94

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE NORTHWEST COAST WHILE A FLAT MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH
RUNNING THROUGH SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON.
TH ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND THE FACT THAT THE TROUGH MAKES ONLY
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD TOWARD FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TRANSLATES TO A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS THE 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF RUNS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE3Y HANDLE THE RIDGE
ALONG THE COAST. THE GFS INCREASES THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE, WHICH
PREVENTS SOUTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ATTENDANT
PRECIPITATION AND KEEPS SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY HIGH, WHILE THE ECMWF
WEAKENS THE RIDGE, WHICH ALLOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH
INTO FORECAST AREA FOR INCREASING POPS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS. SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE TO MAKE ALLOWANCE FOR POSSIBLE SLOP OVER OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES INTO THE
KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST AND SPREADS MOISTURE AND
INCREASING POPS EAST OF CASCADES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  35  48  40 /  30  10  10  40
ALW  51  35  48  42 /  30  10  10  40
PSC  53  34  48  40 /  20  10  10  40
YKM  52  30  46  33 /  30  10  10  30
HRI  53  34  49  40 /  30  10  10  40
ELN  52  27  45  33 /  40  10  10  40
RDM  45  27  45  34 /  20  10  10  20
LGD  44  32  41  34 /  60  30  10  50
GCD  43  25  41  31 /  30  30  10  30
DLS  52  35  49  40 /  40  20  10  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 231716 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
908 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF PCPN STRIKING
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES WITH MOSTLY RAIN AROUND CLE ELUM AND EASTON.
THE PCPN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL RACE ACROSS THE
TWO STATE AREA TODAY PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER MOST PORTIONS OF OUR
REGION. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE REGION PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL TIGHTEN TO CREATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO SKY COVER...PCPN...TEMPS...WINDS AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 359 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
A SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
4000` WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR MONDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH ALONG
WITH A GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE RAIN. FREEZING LEVELS
WILL BE RISING AND SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES WILL RECEIVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH THIS
PATTERN. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY
IN MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 94

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE NORTHWEST COAST WHILE A FLAT MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH
RUNNING THROUGH SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON.
TH ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND THE FACT THAT THE TROUGH MAKES ONLY
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD TOWARD FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TRANSLATES TO A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS THE 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF RUNS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE3Y HANDLE THE RIDGE
ALONG THE COAST. THE GFS INCREASES THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE, WHICH
PREVENTS SOUTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ATTENDANT
PRECIPITATION AND KEEPS SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY HIGH, WHILE THE ECMWF
WEAKENS THE RIDGE, WHICH ALLOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH
INTO FORECAST AREA FOR INCREASING POPS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS. SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE TO MAKE ALLOWANCE FOR POSSIBLE SLOP OVER OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES INTO THE
KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST AND SPREADS MOISTURE AND
INCREASING POPS EAST OF CASCADES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. POLAN

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
RIDING OVER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE WILL ACT TO BRING SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOST TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING
AROUND 21Z/23RD AND BRING SOME -SHRA MAINLY TO KPDT AND KALW WITH
THE -SHRA GETTING ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS. THE ANGLE OF ATTACK OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE SUCH THAT
PRONOUNCED RAIN SHADOW EFFECTS WILL BE FELT IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE
OREGON AND WASHINGTON CASCADES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED
WINDS AT KPDT, KALW AND KPSC WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY
REACHING 10 TO 20 KTS BY 19Z/23RD WITHE THESE WIND SPEEDS PERSISTING
UNTIL AROUND 01Z/24TH WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  35  48  40 /  30  10  10  40
ALW  51  35  48  42 /  30  10  10  40
PSC  53  34  48  40 /  20  10  10  40
YKM  52  30  46  33 /  30  10  10  30
HRI  53  34  49  40 /  30  10  10  40
ELN  52  27  45  33 /  40  10  10  40
RDM  45  27  45  34 /  20  10  10  20
LGD  44  32  41  34 /  60  30  10  50
GCD  43  25  41  31 /  30  30  10  30
DLS  52  35  49  40 /  40  20  10  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/








000
FXUS66 KMFR 231713
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
913 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS CLOUD COVER THINING OUT
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS GRADUALLY
PUSHING SOUTH. MEANWHILE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST IN
THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THEN WILL BE REPLACED BY
HIGH CLOUDS. DID NOT SEE ANY EVIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING, SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. NEXT WE`LL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR MONDAY. THE 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO TREND WET. THE GFS HAS ALSO
TRENDED WETTER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS, SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
WE`LL HAVE A HIGH POP, LOW QPF EVENT, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
CASCADES. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CIGS HAVE
DEVELOPED AT KOTH AND KRBG AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN PARTLY OBSCURED.
IFR/LIFR CIGS/FOG IN THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS AND WESTERN SISKYOU
COUNTY VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. VFR CIGS WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, EXPECT AREAS OF VALLEY IFR CIGS IN
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014... STEEP WEST SWELL WILL
PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY, THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 20 KT ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST ONE MODEL
SHOWS 25 KT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEN A COUPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND
SEAS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL SNOTELS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140 FROM FOURMILE LAKE NORTH TO
SUMMIT LAKE RELIABLY INDICATE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
ACCUMULATED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS BETWEEN 5000 FOOT AND 6200 FOOT
ELEVATIONS. WE EXPECT TO HAVE A NEW REPORT FROM CRATER LAKE
NATIONAL PARK LATER THIS MORNING, WHICH MAY HAVE RECEIVED A LITTLE
MORE THAN TEHSE MENTIONED SNOTELS. FURTHER SOUTH, FROM LAKE OF
THE WOODS TO MOUNT ASHLAND, SNOW REPORTS ABOVE 5000 FEET WERE 1 TO
3 INCHES.

THIS MORNING A 100 TO 130 KNOTS JET STREAM IS STILL PRESENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT 30,000 FT MSL. THIS JET IS STREAMING HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG BELOW AT
MANY LOCATIONS. WE EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE JET STREAM
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY, AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHENS SOME TO
120-145 KNOTS.

TODAY AND THEN MORE SO TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THERE SUBSTANTIAL
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL ACROSS THE AREA AND WHERE IT WILL FALL. THE HRRR IS
INDICATING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE TODAY.
THE NAM AND SREF MODELS SHOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFFECTING
NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA, AT TIMES, WHEREAS THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW LESSER AMOUNTS AND KEEP IT MORE IN THE CASCADES, UMPQUA
BASIN, AND THE OREGON CASCADES. THIS PATTERN IS A FAVORABLE ONE
FOR LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION. WE OFTEN TERM IT A `HIGH
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY, BUT LOW QPF` TYPE OF EVENT WHEN THIS
PATTERN OCCURS. HOWEVER, GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES, WHILE POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED, THEY MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED A BIT MORE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE AREAS MENTIONED. IT IS NOTABLE
THAT THE 06Z GFS HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE NAM12 AND SREF AND
THE THE 06Z NAM12 STUCK TO THE SAME SOLUTION AS WAS DEPICTED ON
THE 00Z RUN. THIS LENDS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE WETTER NAM12
AND SREF SOLUTIONS. WITH THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION, SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE OF SOME CONCERN, THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE OVERRUNNING IS
WEAK ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT RAIN AND SNOW RATHER THAN
ANY FREEZING RAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING
SIGNIFICANTLY ALOFT. IN FACT, THEY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING TO ABOUT
THE 11,000 FOOT LEVEL. LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD HELP TO PROTECT THE
SNOW PACK FROM TOO MUCH LOSS, BUT IT WILL STILL BE VERY NOTABLY
WARM. DUE TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS, HAVE UNDERCUT MODEL
TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AT INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD.

IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE A RETURN TO WET WEATHER THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND. DETAILS ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED, BUT SNOW LEVELS
LOOK AS IF THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH THAT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THESE SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE THE PRIMARY MOUNTAIN PASSES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BTL


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 231713
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
913 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS CLOUD COVER THINING OUT
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS GRADUALLY
PUSHING SOUTH. MEANWHILE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST IN
THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THEN WILL BE REPLACED BY
HIGH CLOUDS. DID NOT SEE ANY EVIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING, SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. NEXT WE`LL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR MONDAY. THE 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO TREND WET. THE GFS HAS ALSO
TRENDED WETTER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS, SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
WE`LL HAVE A HIGH POP, LOW QPF EVENT, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
CASCADES. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CIGS HAVE
DEVELOPED AT KOTH AND KRBG AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN PARTLY OBSCURED.
IFR/LIFR CIGS/FOG IN THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS AND WESTERN SISKYOU
COUNTY VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. VFR CIGS WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, EXPECT AREAS OF VALLEY IFR CIGS IN
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014... STEEP WEST SWELL WILL
PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY, THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 20 KT ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST ONE MODEL
SHOWS 25 KT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEN A COUPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND
SEAS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL SNOTELS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140 FROM FOURMILE LAKE NORTH TO
SUMMIT LAKE RELIABLY INDICATE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
ACCUMULATED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS BETWEEN 5000 FOOT AND 6200 FOOT
ELEVATIONS. WE EXPECT TO HAVE A NEW REPORT FROM CRATER LAKE
NATIONAL PARK LATER THIS MORNING, WHICH MAY HAVE RECEIVED A LITTLE
MORE THAN TEHSE MENTIONED SNOTELS. FURTHER SOUTH, FROM LAKE OF
THE WOODS TO MOUNT ASHLAND, SNOW REPORTS ABOVE 5000 FEET WERE 1 TO
3 INCHES.

THIS MORNING A 100 TO 130 KNOTS JET STREAM IS STILL PRESENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT 30,000 FT MSL. THIS JET IS STREAMING HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG BELOW AT
MANY LOCATIONS. WE EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE JET STREAM
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY, AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHENS SOME TO
120-145 KNOTS.

TODAY AND THEN MORE SO TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THERE SUBSTANTIAL
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL ACROSS THE AREA AND WHERE IT WILL FALL. THE HRRR IS
INDICATING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE TODAY.
THE NAM AND SREF MODELS SHOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFFECTING
NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA, AT TIMES, WHEREAS THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW LESSER AMOUNTS AND KEEP IT MORE IN THE CASCADES, UMPQUA
BASIN, AND THE OREGON CASCADES. THIS PATTERN IS A FAVORABLE ONE
FOR LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION. WE OFTEN TERM IT A `HIGH
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY, BUT LOW QPF` TYPE OF EVENT WHEN THIS
PATTERN OCCURS. HOWEVER, GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES, WHILE POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED, THEY MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED A BIT MORE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE AREAS MENTIONED. IT IS NOTABLE
THAT THE 06Z GFS HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE NAM12 AND SREF AND
THE THE 06Z NAM12 STUCK TO THE SAME SOLUTION AS WAS DEPICTED ON
THE 00Z RUN. THIS LENDS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE WETTER NAM12
AND SREF SOLUTIONS. WITH THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION, SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE OF SOME CONCERN, THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE OVERRUNNING IS
WEAK ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT RAIN AND SNOW RATHER THAN
ANY FREEZING RAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING
SIGNIFICANTLY ALOFT. IN FACT, THEY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING TO ABOUT
THE 11,000 FOOT LEVEL. LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD HELP TO PROTECT THE
SNOW PACK FROM TOO MUCH LOSS, BUT IT WILL STILL BE VERY NOTABLY
WARM. DUE TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS, HAVE UNDERCUT MODEL
TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AT INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD.

IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE A RETURN TO WET WEATHER THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND. DETAILS ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED, BUT SNOW LEVELS
LOOK AS IF THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH THAT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THESE SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE THE PRIMARY MOUNTAIN PASSES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BTL


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 231703
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1003 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WASHINGTON WILL PASS ACROSS MAINLY
THE NRN PORTION OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS TO BAKER COUNTY AND THE MTNS OF SW
IDAHO. ALL THIS IS HANDLED WELL BY THE CURRENT FORECAST AND NO
UPDATE IT PLANNED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY...EXCEPT FOR MVFR-IFR SNOW SHOWERS
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KBKE-KBOI-KSUN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW AT KMYL WILL THIS EVENING THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG LIKELY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS
MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...NW 25-35KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FORCING WILL INDUCE MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WHEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON...INCLUDING THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY...BAKER VALLEY...AND LONG VALLEY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND ON RIDGETOPS...
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH MONDAY FOR MOST
AREAS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA TROUGH THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THE STRENGTH OF A INVERSION IN THE TREASURE VALLEY WITH THIS RIDGE
IN PLACE AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE REMAINING SNOW
COVER. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
AREAS WHICH LACK SNOW COVER WITH THIS RIDGE. AFTER THURSDAY THE
RIDGE DAMPENS ALLOWING A ARCTIC FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
MOIST FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 231703
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1003 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WASHINGTON WILL PASS ACROSS MAINLY
THE NRN PORTION OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS TO BAKER COUNTY AND THE MTNS OF SW
IDAHO. ALL THIS IS HANDLED WELL BY THE CURRENT FORECAST AND NO
UPDATE IT PLANNED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY...EXCEPT FOR MVFR-IFR SNOW SHOWERS
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KBKE-KBOI-KSUN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW AT KMYL WILL THIS EVENING THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG LIKELY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS
MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...NW 25-35KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FORCING WILL INDUCE MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WHEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON...INCLUDING THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY...BAKER VALLEY...AND LONG VALLEY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND ON RIDGETOPS...
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH MONDAY FOR MOST
AREAS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA TROUGH THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THE STRENGTH OF A INVERSION IN THE TREASURE VALLEY WITH THIS RIDGE
IN PLACE AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE REMAINING SNOW
COVER. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
AREAS WHICH LACK SNOW COVER WITH THIS RIDGE. AFTER THURSDAY THE
RIDGE DAMPENS ALLOWING A ARCTIC FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
MOIST FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA



000
FXUS66 KPQR 231526 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
726 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
MIDDAY TODAY...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINOR FOR THE NORTHERN OREGON PASSES. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OREGON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH FOR SYSTEMS TO CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH OCCASIONAL
WET WEATHER. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY BUILD IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH FOG POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...THERE IS A A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE JUST REACHING
THE SW WASHINGTON COAST. THIS LINE PREVIOUSLY PRODUCED SEVERAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST AND A FEW STRIKES
INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES. HAVE DONE A QUICK
UPDATE TO EXPAND THE AREA OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SW
WASHINGTON COAST TO THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES. THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COAST THAN INLAND. HAVE ALSO
ISSUED A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE LINE
WILL GENERATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY...AND MODELS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL FALL
APART SHORTLY OR BEFORE REACHING OREGON. WE WILL BE MONITORING THIS
CLOSELY AND MAKE FURTHER UPDATES IF NECESSARY. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 0.01-0.05 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
IN THE PAST 3 HOURS ACROSS THE COAST RANGE AND INLAND VALLEYS...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE CASCADES. THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT FRONTAL BAND IS ALREADY POPPING UP ON KATX AND KLGX RADARS IN
WASHINGTON...WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE 06Z GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING DECENT CAPE VALUES FOR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AS
SEEN ON RADAR SO FAR THIS MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER OUR SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON
COASTAL WATERS.

THERE HAS ALSO BEEN ENOUGH CLEARING THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN SOME
LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS. EXPECT ANY LINGERING
FOG TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE INCREASING RAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS
NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND IN PARTICULAR THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES. 06Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BULLSEYE OF ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT SAG FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WITH SNOW LEVELS STILL
AROUND 4000 FT...STILL EXPECTING ABOUT 6-9 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL IMPACT THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES... WHILE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD STILL FALL OVER THE NW OREGON CASCADES AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH LATER TODAY. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL SEE
MUCH LESS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER MARGINAL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 0.15 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. LOWER
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY DRY BUT CLOUDY. BUT
THE THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG INCREASES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
AND BRINGING SOME PRECIP MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES BY
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT THIS PATTERN OF NORTHERN SHOWERS WITH SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /27

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY. BUT ONCE
WE GET TO THANKSGIVING MORNING...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY CONCERNING THE
NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE 06Z GFS SHOWS A RATHER WELL-ORGANIZED FRONTAL BAND REACHING THE
SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON COAST IN THE MORNING...WITH RAIN SPREADING
INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DINNER. WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF DOES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT MAINTAINS ITS LIGHTER RAIN/RIDGY SOLUTION. A MUCH
STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD POSE A THREAT TO TRAVELERS RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE STILL UNKNOWN AND WILL BE REFINED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. /64/27

&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...OCCASIONALLY ENOUGH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR FOR SCATTERED TAF SITES TO DETERIORATE INTO
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN SUBSEQUENTLY
IMPROVE AS THE NEXT SHOWER MOVES OVERHEAD.

A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND A
NARROW BAND OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
INTO NORTHWEST OREGON...BUT IT MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KAST AND THE KPDX METRO TAF SITES TOWARDS MIDDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY
FOR THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES. FARTHER SOUTH WHERE CLEARING
THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AT KEUG...KSLE AND EVEN KHIO TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A DYING FRONT MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS INTO MVFR. THERE IS
A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...OR PERHAPS DETERIORATE INTO HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS POINT. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING A NARROW
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN A BURST OF LOW END GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING
AS THIS BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES THROUGH. CONTINUED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS UPSTREAM TO SEE
IF A SHORT FUSED GALE WARNING IS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEAS TO PEAK IN THE
MID TEENS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...BUT ASIDE
FROM SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT. WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS EARLY TO MID WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS MIGHT BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT
THE SCENARIO DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE
FORCE OR HIGHER WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST
    THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
   OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
    PST MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 231526 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
726 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
MIDDAY TODAY...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINOR FOR THE NORTHERN OREGON PASSES. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OREGON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH FOR SYSTEMS TO CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH OCCASIONAL
WET WEATHER. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY BUILD IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH FOG POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...THERE IS A A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE JUST REACHING
THE SW WASHINGTON COAST. THIS LINE PREVIOUSLY PRODUCED SEVERAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST AND A FEW STRIKES
INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES. HAVE DONE A QUICK
UPDATE TO EXPAND THE AREA OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SW
WASHINGTON COAST TO THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES. THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COAST THAN INLAND. HAVE ALSO
ISSUED A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE LINE
WILL GENERATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY...AND MODELS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL FALL
APART SHORTLY OR BEFORE REACHING OREGON. WE WILL BE MONITORING THIS
CLOSELY AND MAKE FURTHER UPDATES IF NECESSARY. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 0.01-0.05 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
IN THE PAST 3 HOURS ACROSS THE COAST RANGE AND INLAND VALLEYS...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE CASCADES. THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT FRONTAL BAND IS ALREADY POPPING UP ON KATX AND KLGX RADARS IN
WASHINGTON...WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE 06Z GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING DECENT CAPE VALUES FOR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AS
SEEN ON RADAR SO FAR THIS MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER OUR SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON
COASTAL WATERS.

THERE HAS ALSO BEEN ENOUGH CLEARING THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN SOME
LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS. EXPECT ANY LINGERING
FOG TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE INCREASING RAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS
NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND IN PARTICULAR THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES. 06Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BULLSEYE OF ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT SAG FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WITH SNOW LEVELS STILL
AROUND 4000 FT...STILL EXPECTING ABOUT 6-9 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL IMPACT THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES... WHILE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD STILL FALL OVER THE NW OREGON CASCADES AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH LATER TODAY. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL SEE
MUCH LESS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER MARGINAL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 0.15 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. LOWER
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY DRY BUT CLOUDY. BUT
THE THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG INCREASES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
AND BRINGING SOME PRECIP MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES BY
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT THIS PATTERN OF NORTHERN SHOWERS WITH SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /27

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY. BUT ONCE
WE GET TO THANKSGIVING MORNING...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY CONCERNING THE
NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE 06Z GFS SHOWS A RATHER WELL-ORGANIZED FRONTAL BAND REACHING THE
SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON COAST IN THE MORNING...WITH RAIN SPREADING
INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DINNER. WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF DOES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT MAINTAINS ITS LIGHTER RAIN/RIDGY SOLUTION. A MUCH
STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD POSE A THREAT TO TRAVELERS RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE STILL UNKNOWN AND WILL BE REFINED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. /64/27

&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...OCCASIONALLY ENOUGH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR FOR SCATTERED TAF SITES TO DETERIORATE INTO
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN SUBSEQUENTLY
IMPROVE AS THE NEXT SHOWER MOVES OVERHEAD.

A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND A
NARROW BAND OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
INTO NORTHWEST OREGON...BUT IT MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KAST AND THE KPDX METRO TAF SITES TOWARDS MIDDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY
FOR THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES. FARTHER SOUTH WHERE CLEARING
THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AT KEUG...KSLE AND EVEN KHIO TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A DYING FRONT MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS INTO MVFR. THERE IS
A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...OR PERHAPS DETERIORATE INTO HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS POINT. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING A NARROW
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN A BURST OF LOW END GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING
AS THIS BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES THROUGH. CONTINUED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS UPSTREAM TO SEE
IF A SHORT FUSED GALE WARNING IS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEAS TO PEAK IN THE
MID TEENS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...BUT ASIDE
FROM SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT. WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS EARLY TO MID WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS MIGHT BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT
THE SCENARIO DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE
FORCE OR HIGHER WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST
    THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
   OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
    PST MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 231221
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
420 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL SNOTELS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140 FROM FOURMILE LAKE NORTH TO
SUMMIT LAKE RELIABLY INDICATE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
ACCUMULATED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS BETWEEN 5000 FOOT AND 6200 FOOT
ELEVATIONS. WE EXPECT TO HAVE A NEW REPORT FROM CRATER LAKE
NATIONAL PARK LATER THIS MORNING, WHICH MAY HAVE RECEIVED A LITTLE
MORE THAN TEHSE MENTIONED SNOTELS. FURTHER SOUTH, FROM LAKE OF
THE WOODS TO MOUNT ASHLAND, SNOW REPORTS ABOVE 5000 FEET WERE 1 TO
3 INCHES.

THIS MORNING A 100 TO 130 KNOTS JET STREAM IS STILL PRESENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT 30,000 FT MSL. THIS JET IS STREAMING HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG BELOW AT
MANY LOCATIONS. WE EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE JET STREAM
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY, AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHENS SOME TO
120-145 KNOTS.

TODAY AND THEN MORE SO TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THERE SUBSTANTIAL
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL ACROSS THE AREA AND WHERE IT WILL FALL. THE HRRR IS
INDICATING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE TODAY.
THE NAM AND SREF MODELS SHOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFFECTING
NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA, AT TIMES, WHEREAS THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW LESSER AMOUNTS AND KEEP IT MORE IN THE CASCADES, UMPQUA
BASIN, AND THE OREGON CASCADES. THIS PATTERN IS A FAVORABLE ONE
FOR LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION. WE OFTEN TERM IT A `HIGH
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY, BUT LOW QPF` TYPE OF EVENT WHEN THIS
PATTERN OCCURS. HOWEVER, GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES, WHILE POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED, THEY MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED A BIT MORE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE AREAS MENTIONED. IT IS NOTABLE
THAT THE 06Z GFS HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE NAM12 AND SREF AND
THE THE 06Z NAM12 STUCK TO THE SAME SOLUTION AS WAS DEPICTED ON
THE 00Z RUN. THIS LENDS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE WETTER NAM12
AND SREF SOLUTIONS. WITH THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION, SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE OF SOME CONCERN, THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE OVERRUNNING IS
WEAK ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT RAIN AND SNOW RATHER THAN
ANY FREEZING RAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING
SIGNIFICANTLY ALOFT. IN FACT, THEY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING TO ABOUT
THE 11,000 FOOT LEVEL. LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD HELP TO PROTECT THE
SNOW PACK FROM TOO MUCH LOSS, BUT IT WILL STILL BE VERY NOTABLY
WARM. DUE TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS, HAVE UNDERCUT MODEL
TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AT INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD.

IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE A RETURN TO WET WEATHER THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND. DETAILS ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED, BUT SNOW LEVELS
LOOK AS IF THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH THAT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THESE SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE THE PRIMARY MOUNTAIN PASSES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/12Z TAF CYCLE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND WEAK STABILITY IS BRINGING A MIX OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN INLAND VALLEYS THIS MORNING.  EXPECT IFR/LIFR
CIGS/FOG IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES,
INCLUDING KMFR AND KRBG AND POSSIBLY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING. EAST SIDE AREAS WILL HAVE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. ALONG THE COAST, EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL
MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT, EXPECT AREAS OF
VALLEY IFR CIGS IN PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014... STEEP WEST SWELL WILL
PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY, THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 20 KT ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST ONE MODEL
SHOWS 25 KT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEN A COUPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BTL/CC/MAS



000
FXUS66 KMFR 231221
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
420 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL SNOTELS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140 FROM FOURMILE LAKE NORTH TO
SUMMIT LAKE RELIABLY INDICATE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
ACCUMULATED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS BETWEEN 5000 FOOT AND 6200 FOOT
ELEVATIONS. WE EXPECT TO HAVE A NEW REPORT FROM CRATER LAKE
NATIONAL PARK LATER THIS MORNING, WHICH MAY HAVE RECEIVED A LITTLE
MORE THAN TEHSE MENTIONED SNOTELS. FURTHER SOUTH, FROM LAKE OF
THE WOODS TO MOUNT ASHLAND, SNOW REPORTS ABOVE 5000 FEET WERE 1 TO
3 INCHES.

THIS MORNING A 100 TO 130 KNOTS JET STREAM IS STILL PRESENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT 30,000 FT MSL. THIS JET IS STREAMING HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG BELOW AT
MANY LOCATIONS. WE EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE JET STREAM
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY, AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHENS SOME TO
120-145 KNOTS.

TODAY AND THEN MORE SO TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THERE SUBSTANTIAL
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL ACROSS THE AREA AND WHERE IT WILL FALL. THE HRRR IS
INDICATING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE TODAY.
THE NAM AND SREF MODELS SHOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFFECTING
NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA, AT TIMES, WHEREAS THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW LESSER AMOUNTS AND KEEP IT MORE IN THE CASCADES, UMPQUA
BASIN, AND THE OREGON CASCADES. THIS PATTERN IS A FAVORABLE ONE
FOR LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION. WE OFTEN TERM IT A `HIGH
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY, BUT LOW QPF` TYPE OF EVENT WHEN THIS
PATTERN OCCURS. HOWEVER, GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES, WHILE POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED, THEY MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED A BIT MORE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE AREAS MENTIONED. IT IS NOTABLE
THAT THE 06Z GFS HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE NAM12 AND SREF AND
THE THE 06Z NAM12 STUCK TO THE SAME SOLUTION AS WAS DEPICTED ON
THE 00Z RUN. THIS LENDS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE WETTER NAM12
AND SREF SOLUTIONS. WITH THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION, SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE OF SOME CONCERN, THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE OVERRUNNING IS
WEAK ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT RAIN AND SNOW RATHER THAN
ANY FREEZING RAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING
SIGNIFICANTLY ALOFT. IN FACT, THEY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING TO ABOUT
THE 11,000 FOOT LEVEL. LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD HELP TO PROTECT THE
SNOW PACK FROM TOO MUCH LOSS, BUT IT WILL STILL BE VERY NOTABLY
WARM. DUE TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS, HAVE UNDERCUT MODEL
TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AT INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD.

IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE A RETURN TO WET WEATHER THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND. DETAILS ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED, BUT SNOW LEVELS
LOOK AS IF THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH THAT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THESE SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE THE PRIMARY MOUNTAIN PASSES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/12Z TAF CYCLE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND WEAK STABILITY IS BRINGING A MIX OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN INLAND VALLEYS THIS MORNING.  EXPECT IFR/LIFR
CIGS/FOG IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES,
INCLUDING KMFR AND KRBG AND POSSIBLY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING. EAST SIDE AREAS WILL HAVE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. ALONG THE COAST, EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL
MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT, EXPECT AREAS OF
VALLEY IFR CIGS IN PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014... STEEP WEST SWELL WILL
PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY, THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 20 KT ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST ONE MODEL
SHOWS 25 KT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEN A COUPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BTL/CC/MAS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 231206
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
406 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL SNOTELS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140 FROM FOURMILE LAKE NORTH TO
SUMMIT LAKE RELIABLY INDICATE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
ACCUMULATED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS BETWEEN 5000 FOOT AND 6200 FOOT
ELEVATIONS. WE EXPECT TO HAVE A NEW REPORT FROM CRATER LAKE
NATIONAL PARK LATER THIS MORNING, WHICH MAY HAVE RECEIVED A LITTLE
MORE THAN TEHSE MENTIONED SNOTELS. FURTHER SOUTH, FROM LAKE OF
THE WOODS TO MOUNT ASHLAND, SNOW REPORTS ABOVE 5000 FEET WERE 1 TO
3 INCHES.

THIS MORNING A 100 TO 130 KNOTS JET STREAM IS STILL PRESENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT 30,000 FT MSL. THIS JET IS STREAMING HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG BELOW AT
MANY LOCATIONS. WE EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE JET STREAM
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY, AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHENS SOME TO
120-145 KNOTS.

TODAY AND THEN MORE SO TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THERE SUBSTANTIAL
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL ACROSS THE AREA AND WHERE IT WILL FALL. THE HRRR IS
INDICATING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE TODAY.
THE NAM AND SREF MODELS SHOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFFECTING
NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA, AT TIMES, WHEREAS THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW LESSER AMOUNTS AND KEEP IT MORE IN THE CASCADES, UMPQUA
BASIN, AND THE OREGON CASCADES. THIS PATTERN IS A FAVORABLE ONE
FOR LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION. WE OFTEN TERM IT A `HIGH
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY, BUT LOW QPF` TYPE OF EVENT WHEN THIS
PATTERN OCCURS. HOWEVER, GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES, WHILE POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED, THEY MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED A BIT MORE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE AREAS MENTIONED. IT IS NOTABLE
THAT THE 06Z GFS HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE NAM12 AND SREF AND
THE THE 06Z NAM12 STUCK TO THE SAME SOLUTION AS WAS DEPICTED ON
THE 00Z RUN. THIS LENDS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE WETTER NAM12
AND SREF SOLUTIONS. WITH THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION, SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE OF SOME CONCERN, THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE OVERRUNNING IS
WEAK ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT RAIN AND SNOW RATHER THAN
ANY FREEZING RAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING
SIGNIFICANTLY ALOFT. IN FACT, THEY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING TO ABOUT
THE 11,000 FOOT LEVEL. LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD HELP TO PROTECT THE
SNOW PACK FROM TOO MUCH LOSS, BUT IT WILL STILL BE VERY NOTABLY
WARM. DUE TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS, HAVE UNDERCUT MODEL
TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AT INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD.

IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE A RETURN TO WET WEATHER THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND. DETAILS ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED, BUT SNOW LEVELS
LOOK AS IF THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH THAT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THESE SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE THE PRIMARY MOUNTAIN PASSES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/06Z TAF CYCLE...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
WHETHER THERE ARE CIGS VERSUS FOG OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING DUE
TO UNCERTAIN STABILITY PARAMETERS. USUALLY AFTER A RAIN EVENT,
IT IS TOO UNSTABLE THE FIRST NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD FOG TO FORM.
HOWEVER, MANY AREAS HAVE CLEARED THIS EVENING, AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS VERY MOIST. THIS COULD SPELL FOG IN AREAS THAT STABILIZE.
THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS/FOG IN THE VALLEYS
WEST OF THE CASCADES, INCLUDING KMFR AND KRBG AND ALSO IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. EAST SIDE AREAS AND THE COAST WILL HAVE A MIX OF VFR
AND MVFR CIGS, THOUGH PATCHY IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE EITHER.
SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014...
WESTERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND THEN
SLOW DIMINISH INTO NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
AND SOME LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THAT MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND
SEAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BTL/CC/MAS



000
FXUS66 KMFR 231206
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
406 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL SNOTELS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140 FROM FOURMILE LAKE NORTH TO
SUMMIT LAKE RELIABLY INDICATE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
ACCUMULATED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS BETWEEN 5000 FOOT AND 6200 FOOT
ELEVATIONS. WE EXPECT TO HAVE A NEW REPORT FROM CRATER LAKE
NATIONAL PARK LATER THIS MORNING, WHICH MAY HAVE RECEIVED A LITTLE
MORE THAN TEHSE MENTIONED SNOTELS. FURTHER SOUTH, FROM LAKE OF
THE WOODS TO MOUNT ASHLAND, SNOW REPORTS ABOVE 5000 FEET WERE 1 TO
3 INCHES.

THIS MORNING A 100 TO 130 KNOTS JET STREAM IS STILL PRESENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT 30,000 FT MSL. THIS JET IS STREAMING HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG BELOW AT
MANY LOCATIONS. WE EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE JET STREAM
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY, AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHENS SOME TO
120-145 KNOTS.

TODAY AND THEN MORE SO TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THERE SUBSTANTIAL
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL ACROSS THE AREA AND WHERE IT WILL FALL. THE HRRR IS
INDICATING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE TODAY.
THE NAM AND SREF MODELS SHOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFFECTING
NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA, AT TIMES, WHEREAS THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW LESSER AMOUNTS AND KEEP IT MORE IN THE CASCADES, UMPQUA
BASIN, AND THE OREGON CASCADES. THIS PATTERN IS A FAVORABLE ONE
FOR LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION. WE OFTEN TERM IT A `HIGH
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY, BUT LOW QPF` TYPE OF EVENT WHEN THIS
PATTERN OCCURS. HOWEVER, GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES, WHILE POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED, THEY MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED A BIT MORE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE AREAS MENTIONED. IT IS NOTABLE
THAT THE 06Z GFS HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE NAM12 AND SREF AND
THE THE 06Z NAM12 STUCK TO THE SAME SOLUTION AS WAS DEPICTED ON
THE 00Z RUN. THIS LENDS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE WETTER NAM12
AND SREF SOLUTIONS. WITH THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION, SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE OF SOME CONCERN, THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE OVERRUNNING IS
WEAK ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT RAIN AND SNOW RATHER THAN
ANY FREEZING RAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING
SIGNIFICANTLY ALOFT. IN FACT, THEY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING TO ABOUT
THE 11,000 FOOT LEVEL. LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD HELP TO PROTECT THE
SNOW PACK FROM TOO MUCH LOSS, BUT IT WILL STILL BE VERY NOTABLY
WARM. DUE TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS, HAVE UNDERCUT MODEL
TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AT INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD.

IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE A RETURN TO WET WEATHER THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND. DETAILS ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED, BUT SNOW LEVELS
LOOK AS IF THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH THAT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THESE SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE THE PRIMARY MOUNTAIN PASSES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/06Z TAF CYCLE...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
WHETHER THERE ARE CIGS VERSUS FOG OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING DUE
TO UNCERTAIN STABILITY PARAMETERS. USUALLY AFTER A RAIN EVENT,
IT IS TOO UNSTABLE THE FIRST NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD FOG TO FORM.
HOWEVER, MANY AREAS HAVE CLEARED THIS EVENING, AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS VERY MOIST. THIS COULD SPELL FOG IN AREAS THAT STABILIZE.
THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS/FOG IN THE VALLEYS
WEST OF THE CASCADES, INCLUDING KMFR AND KRBG AND ALSO IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. EAST SIDE AREAS AND THE COAST WILL HAVE A MIX OF VFR
AND MVFR CIGS, THOUGH PATCHY IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE EITHER.
SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014...
WESTERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND THEN
SLOW DIMINISH INTO NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
AND SOME LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THAT MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND
SEAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BTL/CC/MAS




000
FXUS66 KPDT 231159 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
359 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
A SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
4000` WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR MONDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH ALONG
WITH A GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE RAIN. FREEZING LEVELS
WILL BE RISING AND SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES WILL RECEIVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH THIS
PATTERN. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY
IN MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 94

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE NORTHWEST COAST WHILE A FLAT MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH
RUNNING THROUGH SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON.
TH ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND THE FACT THAT THE TROUGH MAKES ONLY
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD TOWARD FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TRANSLATES TO A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS THE 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF RUNS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE3Y HANDLE THE RIDGE
ALONG THE COAST. THE GFS INCREASES THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE, WHICH
PREVENTS SOUTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ATTENDANT
PRECIPITATION AND KEEPS SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY HIGH, WHILE THE ECMWF
WEAKENS THE RIDGE, WHICH ALLOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH
INTO FORECAST AREA FOR INCREASING POPS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS. SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE TO MAKE ALLOWANCE FOR POSSIBLE SLOP OVER OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES INTO THE
KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST AND SPREADS MOISTURE AND
INCREASING POPS EAST OF CASCADES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
RIDING OVER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE WILL ACT TO BRING SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOST TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING
AROUND 21Z/23RD AND BRING SOME -SHRA MAINLY TO KPDT AND KALW WITH
THE -SHRA GETTING ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS. THE ANGLE OF ATTACK OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE SUCH THAT
PRONOUNCED RAIN SHADOW EFFECTS WILL BE FELT IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE
OREGON AND WASHINGTON CASCADES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED
WINDS AT KPDT, KALW AND KPSC WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY
REACHING 10 TO 20 KTS BY 19Z/23RD WITHE THESE WIND SPEEDS PERSISTING
UNTIL AROUND 01Z/24TH WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  35  48  40 /  30  10  10  40
ALW  51  35  48  42 /  30  10  10  40
PSC  51  34  48  40 /  20  10  10  40
YKM  47  30  46  33 /  30  10  10  30
HRI  51  34  49  40 /  30  10  10  40
ELN  45  27  45  33 /  40  10  10  40
RDM  45  27  45  34 /  20  10  10  20
LGD  43  32  41  34 /  60  30  10  50
GCD  43  25  41  31 /  30  30  10  30
DLS  50  35  49  40 /  40  20  10  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/99/99







000
FXUS66 KPDT 231102
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
A SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
4000` WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR MONDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH ALONG
WITH A GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE RAIN. FREEZING LEVELS
WILL BE RISING AND SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES WILL RECEIVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH THIS
PATTERN. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY
IN MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 94

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE NORTHWEST COAST WHILE A FLAT MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH
RUNNING THROUGH SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON.
TH ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND THE FACT THAT THE TROUGH MAKES ONLY
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD TOWARD FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TRANSLATES TO A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS THE 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF RUNS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE3Y HANDLE THE RIDGE
ALONG THE COAST. THE GFS INCREASES THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE, WHICH
PREVENTS SOUTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ATTENDANT
PRECIPITATION AND KEEPS SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY HIGH, WHILE THE ECMWF
WEAKENS THE RIDGE, WHICH ALLOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH
INTO FORECAST AREA FOR INCREASING POPS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS. SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE TO MAKE ALLOWANCE FOR POSSIBLE SLOP OVER OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES INTO THE
KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST AND SPREADS MOISTURE AND
INCREASING POPS EAST OF CASCADES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL ACT TO BRING PERIODIC SCT TO BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS TO MOST TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A
SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA AFTER 23/21Z...BRINGING SOME -SHRA TO AND INVOF MOST TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT KPDT THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE A
SHORT BREAK FROM 23/15-19Z. WIND GUSTS ARE THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE
AGAIN...REACHING 25 TO 30 KTS AFTER 23/19Z FOR KPDT...KALW..AND KPSC
TAF SITES. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  35  48  40 /  30  10  10  40
ALW  51  35  48  42 /  30  10  10  40
PSC  51  34  48  40 /  20  10  10  40
YKM  47  30  46  33 /  30  10  10  30
HRI  51  34  49  40 /  30  10  10  40
ELN  45  27  45  33 /  40  10  10  40
RDM  45  27  45  34 /  20  10  10  20
LGD  43  32  41  34 /  60  30  10  50
GCD  43  25  41  31 /  30  30  10  30
DLS  50  35  49  40 /  40  20  10  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/99/99








000
FXUS66 KPDT 231102
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
A SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
4000` WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR MONDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH ALONG
WITH A GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE RAIN. FREEZING LEVELS
WILL BE RISING AND SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES WILL RECEIVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH THIS
PATTERN. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY
IN MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 94

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE NORTHWEST COAST WHILE A FLAT MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH
RUNNING THROUGH SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON.
TH ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND THE FACT THAT THE TROUGH MAKES ONLY
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD TOWARD FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TRANSLATES TO A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS THE 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF RUNS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE3Y HANDLE THE RIDGE
ALONG THE COAST. THE GFS INCREASES THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE, WHICH
PREVENTS SOUTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ATTENDANT
PRECIPITATION AND KEEPS SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY HIGH, WHILE THE ECMWF
WEAKENS THE RIDGE, WHICH ALLOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH
INTO FORECAST AREA FOR INCREASING POPS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS. SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE TO MAKE ALLOWANCE FOR POSSIBLE SLOP OVER OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES INTO THE
KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST AND SPREADS MOISTURE AND
INCREASING POPS EAST OF CASCADES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL ACT TO BRING PERIODIC SCT TO BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS TO MOST TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A
SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA AFTER 23/21Z...BRINGING SOME -SHRA TO AND INVOF MOST TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT KPDT THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE A
SHORT BREAK FROM 23/15-19Z. WIND GUSTS ARE THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE
AGAIN...REACHING 25 TO 30 KTS AFTER 23/19Z FOR KPDT...KALW..AND KPSC
TAF SITES. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  35  48  40 /  30  10  10  40
ALW  51  35  48  42 /  30  10  10  40
PSC  51  34  48  40 /  20  10  10  40
YKM  47  30  46  33 /  30  10  10  30
HRI  51  34  49  40 /  30  10  10  40
ELN  45  27  45  33 /  40  10  10  40
RDM  45  27  45  34 /  20  10  10  20
LGD  43  32  41  34 /  60  30  10  50
GCD  43  25  41  31 /  30  30  10  30
DLS  50  35  49  40 /  40  20  10  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/99/99









000
FXUS66 KPQR 231041
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
241 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
MIDDAY TODAY...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINOR FOR THE NORTHERN OREGON PASSES. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OREGON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH FOR SYSTEMS TO CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH OCCASIONAL
WET WEATHER. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY BUILD IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH FOG POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 0.01-0.05 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE PAST 3
HOURS ACROSS THE COAST RANGE AND INLAND VALLEYS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE CASCADES. THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND
IS ALREADY POPPING UP ON KATX AND KLGX RADARS IN WASHINGTON...WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE 06Z GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING DECENT CAPE VALUES FOR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AS
SEEN ON RADAR SO FAR THIS MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER OUR SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON
COASTAL WATERS.

THERE HAS ALSO BEEN ENOUGH CLEARING THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN SOME
LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS. EXPECT ANY LINGERING
FOG TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE INCREASING RAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS
NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND IN PARTICULAR THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES. 06Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BULLSEYE OF ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT SAG FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WITH SNOW LEVELS STILL
AROUND 4000 FT...STILL EXPECTING ABOUT 6-9 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL IMPACT THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES... WHILE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD STILL FALL OVER THE NW OREGON CASCADES AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH LATER TODAY. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL SEE
MUCH LESS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER MARGINAL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 0.15 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. LOWER
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY DRY BUT CLOUDY. BUT
THE THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG INCREASES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
AND BRINGING SOME PRECIP MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES BY
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT THIS PATTERN OF NORTHERN SHOWERS WITH SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /27

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY. BUT ONCE
WE GET TO THANKSGIVING MORNING...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY CONCERNING THE
NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE 06Z GFS SHOWS A RATHER WELL-ORGANIZED FRONTAL BAND REACHING THE
SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON COAST IN THE MORNING...WITH RAIN SPREADING
INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DINNER. WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF DOES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT MAINTAINS ITS LIGHTER RAIN/RIDGY SOLUTION. A MUCH
STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD POSE A THREAT TO TRAVELERS RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE STILL UNKNOWN AND WILL BE REFINED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. /64/27

&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...OCCASIONALLY ENOUGH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR FOR SCATTERED TAF SITES TO DETERIORATE INTO
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN SUBSEQUENTLY
IMPROVE AS THE NEXT SHOWER MOVES OVERHEAD.

A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND A
NARROW BAND OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
INTO NORTHWEST OREGON...BUT IT MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KAST AND THE KPDX METRO TAF SITES TOWARDS MIDDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY
FOR THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES. FARTHER SOUTH WHERE CLEARING
THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AT KEUG...KSLE AND EVEN KHIO TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A DYING FRONT MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS INTO MVFR. THERE IS
A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...OR PERHAPS DETERIORATE INTO HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS POINT. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING A NARROW
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN A BURST OF LOW END GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING
AS THIS BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES THROUGH. CONTINUED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS UPSTREAM TO SEE
IF A SHORT FUSED GALE WARNING IS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEAS TO PEAK IN THE
MID TEENS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...BUT ASIDE
FROM SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT. WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS EARLY TO MID WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS MIGHT BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT
THE SCENARIO DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE
FORCE OR HIGHER WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST
    THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
   OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
    PST MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231041
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
241 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
MIDDAY TODAY...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINOR FOR THE NORTHERN OREGON PASSES. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OREGON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH FOR SYSTEMS TO CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH OCCASIONAL
WET WEATHER. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY BUILD IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH FOG POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 0.01-0.05 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE PAST 3
HOURS ACROSS THE COAST RANGE AND INLAND VALLEYS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE CASCADES. THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND
IS ALREADY POPPING UP ON KATX AND KLGX RADARS IN WASHINGTON...WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE 06Z GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING DECENT CAPE VALUES FOR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AS
SEEN ON RADAR SO FAR THIS MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER OUR SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON
COASTAL WATERS.

THERE HAS ALSO BEEN ENOUGH CLEARING THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN SOME
LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS. EXPECT ANY LINGERING
FOG TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE INCREASING RAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS
NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND IN PARTICULAR THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES. 06Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BULLSEYE OF ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT SAG FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WITH SNOW LEVELS STILL
AROUND 4000 FT...STILL EXPECTING ABOUT 6-9 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL IMPACT THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES... WHILE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD STILL FALL OVER THE NW OREGON CASCADES AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH LATER TODAY. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL SEE
MUCH LESS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER MARGINAL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 0.15 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. LOWER
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY DRY BUT CLOUDY. BUT
THE THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG INCREASES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
AND BRINGING SOME PRECIP MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES BY
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT THIS PATTERN OF NORTHERN SHOWERS WITH SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /27

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY. BUT ONCE
WE GET TO THANKSGIVING MORNING...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY CONCERNING THE
NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE 06Z GFS SHOWS A RATHER WELL-ORGANIZED FRONTAL BAND REACHING THE
SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON COAST IN THE MORNING...WITH RAIN SPREADING
INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DINNER. WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF DOES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT MAINTAINS ITS LIGHTER RAIN/RIDGY SOLUTION. A MUCH
STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD POSE A THREAT TO TRAVELERS RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE STILL UNKNOWN AND WILL BE REFINED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. /64/27

&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...OCCASIONALLY ENOUGH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR FOR SCATTERED TAF SITES TO DETERIORATE INTO
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN SUBSEQUENTLY
IMPROVE AS THE NEXT SHOWER MOVES OVERHEAD.

A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND A
NARROW BAND OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
INTO NORTHWEST OREGON...BUT IT MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KAST AND THE KPDX METRO TAF SITES TOWARDS MIDDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY
FOR THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES. FARTHER SOUTH WHERE CLEARING
THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AT KEUG...KSLE AND EVEN KHIO TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A DYING FRONT MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS INTO MVFR. THERE IS
A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...OR PERHAPS DETERIORATE INTO HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS POINT. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING A NARROW
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN A BURST OF LOW END GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING
AS THIS BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES THROUGH. CONTINUED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS UPSTREAM TO SEE
IF A SHORT FUSED GALE WARNING IS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEAS TO PEAK IN THE
MID TEENS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...BUT ASIDE
FROM SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT. WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS EARLY TO MID WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS MIGHT BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT
THE SCENARIO DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE
FORCE OR HIGHER WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST
    THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
   OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
    PST MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231041
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
241 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
MIDDAY TODAY...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINOR FOR THE NORTHERN OREGON PASSES. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OREGON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH FOR SYSTEMS TO CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH OCCASIONAL
WET WEATHER. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY BUILD IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH FOG POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 0.01-0.05 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE PAST 3
HOURS ACROSS THE COAST RANGE AND INLAND VALLEYS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE CASCADES. THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND
IS ALREADY POPPING UP ON KATX AND KLGX RADARS IN WASHINGTON...WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE 06Z GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING DECENT CAPE VALUES FOR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AS
SEEN ON RADAR SO FAR THIS MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER OUR SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON
COASTAL WATERS.

THERE HAS ALSO BEEN ENOUGH CLEARING THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN SOME
LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS. EXPECT ANY LINGERING
FOG TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE INCREASING RAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS
NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND IN PARTICULAR THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES. 06Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BULLSEYE OF ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT SAG FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WITH SNOW LEVELS STILL
AROUND 4000 FT...STILL EXPECTING ABOUT 6-9 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL IMPACT THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES... WHILE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD STILL FALL OVER THE NW OREGON CASCADES AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH LATER TODAY. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL SEE
MUCH LESS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER MARGINAL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 0.15 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. LOWER
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY DRY BUT CLOUDY. BUT
THE THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG INCREASES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
AND BRINGING SOME PRECIP MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES BY
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT THIS PATTERN OF NORTHERN SHOWERS WITH SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /27

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY. BUT ONCE
WE GET TO THANKSGIVING MORNING...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY CONCERNING THE
NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE 06Z GFS SHOWS A RATHER WELL-ORGANIZED FRONTAL BAND REACHING THE
SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON COAST IN THE MORNING...WITH RAIN SPREADING
INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DINNER. WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF DOES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT MAINTAINS ITS LIGHTER RAIN/RIDGY SOLUTION. A MUCH
STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD POSE A THREAT TO TRAVELERS RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE STILL UNKNOWN AND WILL BE REFINED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. /64/27

&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...OCCASIONALLY ENOUGH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR FOR SCATTERED TAF SITES TO DETERIORATE INTO
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN SUBSEQUENTLY
IMPROVE AS THE NEXT SHOWER MOVES OVERHEAD.

A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND A
NARROW BAND OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
INTO NORTHWEST OREGON...BUT IT MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KAST AND THE KPDX METRO TAF SITES TOWARDS MIDDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY
FOR THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES. FARTHER SOUTH WHERE CLEARING
THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AT KEUG...KSLE AND EVEN KHIO TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A DYING FRONT MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS INTO MVFR. THERE IS
A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...OR PERHAPS DETERIORATE INTO HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS POINT. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING A NARROW
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN A BURST OF LOW END GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING
AS THIS BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES THROUGH. CONTINUED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS UPSTREAM TO SEE
IF A SHORT FUSED GALE WARNING IS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEAS TO PEAK IN THE
MID TEENS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...BUT ASIDE
FROM SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT. WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS EARLY TO MID WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS MIGHT BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT
THE SCENARIO DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE
FORCE OR HIGHER WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST
    THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
   OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
    PST MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231041
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
241 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
MIDDAY TODAY...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINOR FOR THE NORTHERN OREGON PASSES. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OREGON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH FOR SYSTEMS TO CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH OCCASIONAL
WET WEATHER. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY BUILD IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH FOG POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 0.01-0.05 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE PAST 3
HOURS ACROSS THE COAST RANGE AND INLAND VALLEYS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE CASCADES. THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND
IS ALREADY POPPING UP ON KATX AND KLGX RADARS IN WASHINGTON...WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE 06Z GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING DECENT CAPE VALUES FOR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AS
SEEN ON RADAR SO FAR THIS MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER OUR SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON
COASTAL WATERS.

THERE HAS ALSO BEEN ENOUGH CLEARING THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN SOME
LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS. EXPECT ANY LINGERING
FOG TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE INCREASING RAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS
NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND IN PARTICULAR THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES. 06Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BULLSEYE OF ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT SAG FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WITH SNOW LEVELS STILL
AROUND 4000 FT...STILL EXPECTING ABOUT 6-9 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL IMPACT THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES... WHILE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD STILL FALL OVER THE NW OREGON CASCADES AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH LATER TODAY. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL SEE
MUCH LESS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER MARGINAL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 0.15 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. LOWER
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY DRY BUT CLOUDY. BUT
THE THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG INCREASES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
AND BRINGING SOME PRECIP MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES BY
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT THIS PATTERN OF NORTHERN SHOWERS WITH SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /27

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY. BUT ONCE
WE GET TO THANKSGIVING MORNING...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY CONCERNING THE
NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE 06Z GFS SHOWS A RATHER WELL-ORGANIZED FRONTAL BAND REACHING THE
SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON COAST IN THE MORNING...WITH RAIN SPREADING
INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DINNER. WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF DOES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT MAINTAINS ITS LIGHTER RAIN/RIDGY SOLUTION. A MUCH
STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD POSE A THREAT TO TRAVELERS RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE STILL UNKNOWN AND WILL BE REFINED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. /64/27

&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...OCCASIONALLY ENOUGH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR FOR SCATTERED TAF SITES TO DETERIORATE INTO
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN SUBSEQUENTLY
IMPROVE AS THE NEXT SHOWER MOVES OVERHEAD.

A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND A
NARROW BAND OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
INTO NORTHWEST OREGON...BUT IT MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KAST AND THE KPDX METRO TAF SITES TOWARDS MIDDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY
FOR THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES. FARTHER SOUTH WHERE CLEARING
THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AT KEUG...KSLE AND EVEN KHIO TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A DYING FRONT MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS INTO MVFR. THERE IS
A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...OR PERHAPS DETERIORATE INTO HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS POINT. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING A NARROW
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN A BURST OF LOW END GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING
AS THIS BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES THROUGH. CONTINUED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS UPSTREAM TO SEE
IF A SHORT FUSED GALE WARNING IS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEAS TO PEAK IN THE
MID TEENS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...BUT ASIDE
FROM SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT. WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS EARLY TO MID WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS MIGHT BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT
THE SCENARIO DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE
FORCE OR HIGHER WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST
    THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
   OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
    PST MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 230949
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
249 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FORCING WILL INDUCE MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WHEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON...INCLUDING THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY...BAKER VALLEY...AND LONG VALLEY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND ON RIDGETOPS...
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH MONDAY FOR MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA TROUGH THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THE STRENGTH OF A INVERSION IN THE TREASURE VALLEY WITH THIS RIDGE
IN PLACE AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE REMAINING SNOW
COVER. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
AREAS WHICH LACK SNOW COVER WITH THIS RIDGE. AFTER THURSDAY THE
RIDGE DAMPENS ALLOWING A ARCTIC FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
MOIST FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR-IFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM KBKE-KBOI-KSUN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS
SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...NW 25-35KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 230949
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
249 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FORCING WILL INDUCE MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WHEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON...INCLUDING THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY...BAKER VALLEY...AND LONG VALLEY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND ON RIDGETOPS...
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH MONDAY FOR MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA TROUGH THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THE STRENGTH OF A INVERSION IN THE TREASURE VALLEY WITH THIS RIDGE
IN PLACE AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE REMAINING SNOW
COVER. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
AREAS WHICH LACK SNOW COVER WITH THIS RIDGE. AFTER THURSDAY THE
RIDGE DAMPENS ALLOWING A ARCTIC FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
MOIST FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR-IFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM KBKE-KBOI-KSUN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS
SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...NW 25-35KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 230949
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
249 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FORCING WILL INDUCE MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WHEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON...INCLUDING THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY...BAKER VALLEY...AND LONG VALLEY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND ON RIDGETOPS...
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH MONDAY FOR MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA TROUGH THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THE STRENGTH OF A INVERSION IN THE TREASURE VALLEY WITH THIS RIDGE
IN PLACE AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE REMAINING SNOW
COVER. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
AREAS WHICH LACK SNOW COVER WITH THIS RIDGE. AFTER THURSDAY THE
RIDGE DAMPENS ALLOWING A ARCTIC FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
MOIST FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR-IFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM KBKE-KBOI-KSUN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS
SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...NW 25-35KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS66 KPDT 230545 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
944 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT CAUSED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH
THE BEST SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADES AND OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. THIS FRONT ALSO KICKED WINDS UP AT A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS. MOST LOCATIONS WITH INCREASED WINDS HAVE SEEN
15 TO 25 MPH, THE ONE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF
PENDLETON WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN RUNNING 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE DECREASED OR ARE DECREASING. THE
WINDS AT THE PENDLETON AIRPORT (ON THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE)
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BUT WILL REMAIN RATHER BLUSTERY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WESTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT A FEW SHOWERS GOING NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY ENDED
ELSEWHERE. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
NIGHT NEAR THE CASCADES AND MAY CAUSE RENEWED SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VARYING
CHANCES OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA. ALSO WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AT A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DUE TO THIS SYSTEM. UPDATES INVOLVED MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS, PRECIP CHANCES, SNOW LEVELS AND AMOUNTS, AND MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RAIN AND
HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH. MUCH DRIER WEATHER
AND MILD TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORM TRACK REMAINING TO THE NORTH. THE
RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A DEEP PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL ACT TO BRING PERIODIC SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECKS TO MOST TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A SLIGHTLY BETTER
DEFINED DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA AFTER
23/21Z...BRINGING SOME -SHRA TO AND INVOF MOST TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY AT KPDT THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE A SHORT BREAK FROM
23/15-19Z. WIND GUSTS ARE THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN...REACHING
25 TO 30 KTS AFTER 23/19Z FOR KPDT...KALW..AND KPSC TAF SITES. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  49  34  46 /  20  30  20  10
ALW  38  50  35  46 /  20  50  20  10
PSC  37  50  34  46 /  10  30  10  10
YKM  31  45  31  45 /  20  20  10  10
HRI  36  51  33  48 /  20  30  10  10
ELN  30  44  28  45 /  20  40  10  10
RDM  27  44  27  43 /  20  20  10  10
LGD  35  40  31  39 /  50  60  30  10
GCD  32  43  22  38 /  40  30  30  10
DLS  38  49  35  48 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/77







000
FXUS66 KPDT 230545 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
944 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT CAUSED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH
THE BEST SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADES AND OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. THIS FRONT ALSO KICKED WINDS UP AT A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS. MOST LOCATIONS WITH INCREASED WINDS HAVE SEEN
15 TO 25 MPH, THE ONE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF
PENDLETON WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN RUNNING 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE DECREASED OR ARE DECREASING. THE
WINDS AT THE PENDLETON AIRPORT (ON THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE)
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BUT WILL REMAIN RATHER BLUSTERY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WESTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT A FEW SHOWERS GOING NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY ENDED
ELSEWHERE. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
NIGHT NEAR THE CASCADES AND MAY CAUSE RENEWED SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VARYING
CHANCES OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA. ALSO WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AT A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DUE TO THIS SYSTEM. UPDATES INVOLVED MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS, PRECIP CHANCES, SNOW LEVELS AND AMOUNTS, AND MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RAIN AND
HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH. MUCH DRIER WEATHER
AND MILD TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORM TRACK REMAINING TO THE NORTH. THE
RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A DEEP PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL ACT TO BRING PERIODIC SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECKS TO MOST TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A SLIGHTLY BETTER
DEFINED DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA AFTER
23/21Z...BRINGING SOME -SHRA TO AND INVOF MOST TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY AT KPDT THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE A SHORT BREAK FROM
23/15-19Z. WIND GUSTS ARE THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN...REACHING
25 TO 30 KTS AFTER 23/19Z FOR KPDT...KALW..AND KPSC TAF SITES. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  49  34  46 /  20  30  20  10
ALW  38  50  35  46 /  20  50  20  10
PSC  37  50  34  46 /  10  30  10  10
YKM  31  45  31  45 /  20  20  10  10
HRI  36  51  33  48 /  20  30  10  10
ELN  30  44  28  45 /  20  40  10  10
RDM  27  44  27  43 /  20  20  10  10
LGD  35  40  31  39 /  50  60  30  10
GCD  32  43  22  38 /  40  30  30  10
DLS  38  49  35  48 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/77







000
FXUS66 KPDT 230545 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
944 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT CAUSED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH
THE BEST SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADES AND OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. THIS FRONT ALSO KICKED WINDS UP AT A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS. MOST LOCATIONS WITH INCREASED WINDS HAVE SEEN
15 TO 25 MPH, THE ONE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF
PENDLETON WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN RUNNING 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE DECREASED OR ARE DECREASING. THE
WINDS AT THE PENDLETON AIRPORT (ON THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE)
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BUT WILL REMAIN RATHER BLUSTERY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WESTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT A FEW SHOWERS GOING NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY ENDED
ELSEWHERE. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
NIGHT NEAR THE CASCADES AND MAY CAUSE RENEWED SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VARYING
CHANCES OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA. ALSO WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AT A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DUE TO THIS SYSTEM. UPDATES INVOLVED MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS, PRECIP CHANCES, SNOW LEVELS AND AMOUNTS, AND MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RAIN AND
HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH. MUCH DRIER WEATHER
AND MILD TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORM TRACK REMAINING TO THE NORTH. THE
RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A DEEP PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL ACT TO BRING PERIODIC SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECKS TO MOST TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A SLIGHTLY BETTER
DEFINED DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA AFTER
23/21Z...BRINGING SOME -SHRA TO AND INVOF MOST TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY AT KPDT THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE A SHORT BREAK FROM
23/15-19Z. WIND GUSTS ARE THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN...REACHING
25 TO 30 KTS AFTER 23/19Z FOR KPDT...KALW..AND KPSC TAF SITES. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  49  34  46 /  20  30  20  10
ALW  38  50  35  46 /  20  50  20  10
PSC  37  50  34  46 /  10  30  10  10
YKM  31  45  31  45 /  20  20  10  10
HRI  36  51  33  48 /  20  30  10  10
ELN  30  44  28  45 /  20  40  10  10
RDM  27  44  27  43 /  20  20  10  10
LGD  35  40  31  39 /  50  60  30  10
GCD  32  43  22  38 /  40  30  30  10
DLS  38  49  35  48 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/77







000
FXUS66 KPDT 230545 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
944 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT CAUSED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH
THE BEST SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADES AND OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. THIS FRONT ALSO KICKED WINDS UP AT A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS. MOST LOCATIONS WITH INCREASED WINDS HAVE SEEN
15 TO 25 MPH, THE ONE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF
PENDLETON WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN RUNNING 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE DECREASED OR ARE DECREASING. THE
WINDS AT THE PENDLETON AIRPORT (ON THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE)
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BUT WILL REMAIN RATHER BLUSTERY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WESTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT A FEW SHOWERS GOING NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY ENDED
ELSEWHERE. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
NIGHT NEAR THE CASCADES AND MAY CAUSE RENEWED SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VARYING
CHANCES OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA. ALSO WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AT A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DUE TO THIS SYSTEM. UPDATES INVOLVED MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS, PRECIP CHANCES, SNOW LEVELS AND AMOUNTS, AND MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RAIN AND
HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH. MUCH DRIER WEATHER
AND MILD TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORM TRACK REMAINING TO THE NORTH. THE
RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A DEEP PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL ACT TO BRING PERIODIC SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECKS TO MOST TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A SLIGHTLY BETTER
DEFINED DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA AFTER
23/21Z...BRINGING SOME -SHRA TO AND INVOF MOST TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY AT KPDT THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE A SHORT BREAK FROM
23/15-19Z. WIND GUSTS ARE THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN...REACHING
25 TO 30 KTS AFTER 23/19Z FOR KPDT...KALW..AND KPSC TAF SITES. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  49  34  46 /  20  30  20  10
ALW  38  50  35  46 /  20  50  20  10
PSC  37  50  34  46 /  10  30  10  10
YKM  31  45  31  45 /  20  20  10  10
HRI  36  51  33  48 /  20  30  10  10
ELN  30  44  28  45 /  20  40  10  10
RDM  27  44  27  43 /  20  20  10  10
LGD  35  40  31  39 /  50  60  30  10
GCD  32  43  22  38 /  40  30  30  10
DLS  38  49  35  48 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/77







000
FXUS66 KPDT 230537
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
937 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT CAUSED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH
THE BEST SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADES AND OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. THIS FRONT ALSO KICKED WINDS UP AT A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS. MOST LOCATIONS WITH INCREASED WINDS HAVE SEEN
15 TO 25 MPH, THE ONE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF
PENDLETON WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN RUNNING 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE DECREASED OR ARE DECREASING. THE
WINDS AT THE PENDLETON AIRPORT (ON THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE)
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BUT WILL REMAIN RATHER BLUSTERY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WESTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT A FEW SHOWERS GOING NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY ENDED
ELSEWHERE. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
NIGHT NEAR THE CASCADES AND MAY CAUSE RENEWED SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VARYING
CHANCES OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA. ALSO WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AT A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DUE TO THIS SYSTEM. UPDATES INVOLVED MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS, PRECIP CHANCES, SNOW LEVELS AND AMOUNTS, AND MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RAIN AND
HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH. MUCH DRIER WEATHER
AND MILD TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORM TRACK REMAINING TO THE NORTH. THE
RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A DEEP PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...00Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
CAN NOW BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
RAIN AT KALW WILL CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT HOUR. DUE TO
INCREASED WIND AND BETTER MIXING...DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY TO REFORM
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME STEADY 5 TO 12 KTS SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  49  34  46 /  20  30  20  10
ALW  38  50  35  46 /  20  50  20  10
PSC  37  50  34  46 /  10  30  10  10
YKM  31  45  31  45 /  20  20  10  10
HRI  36  51  33  48 /  20  30  10  10
ELN  30  44  28  45 /  20  40  10  10
RDM  27  44  27  43 /  20  20  10  10
LGD  35  40  31  39 /  50  60  30  10
GCD  32  43  22  38 /  40  30  30  10
DLS  38  49  35  48 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/77







000
FXUS66 KPDT 230537
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
937 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT CAUSED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH
THE BEST SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADES AND OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. THIS FRONT ALSO KICKED WINDS UP AT A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS. MOST LOCATIONS WITH INCREASED WINDS HAVE SEEN
15 TO 25 MPH, THE ONE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF
PENDLETON WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN RUNNING 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE DECREASED OR ARE DECREASING. THE
WINDS AT THE PENDLETON AIRPORT (ON THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE)
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BUT WILL REMAIN RATHER BLUSTERY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WESTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT A FEW SHOWERS GOING NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY ENDED
ELSEWHERE. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
NIGHT NEAR THE CASCADES AND MAY CAUSE RENEWED SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VARYING
CHANCES OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA. ALSO WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AT A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DUE TO THIS SYSTEM. UPDATES INVOLVED MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS, PRECIP CHANCES, SNOW LEVELS AND AMOUNTS, AND MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RAIN AND
HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH. MUCH DRIER WEATHER
AND MILD TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORM TRACK REMAINING TO THE NORTH. THE
RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A DEEP PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...00Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
CAN NOW BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
RAIN AT KALW WILL CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT HOUR. DUE TO
INCREASED WIND AND BETTER MIXING...DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY TO REFORM
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME STEADY 5 TO 12 KTS SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  49  34  46 /  20  30  20  10
ALW  38  50  35  46 /  20  50  20  10
PSC  37  50  34  46 /  10  30  10  10
YKM  31  45  31  45 /  20  20  10  10
HRI  36  51  33  48 /  20  30  10  10
ELN  30  44  28  45 /  20  40  10  10
RDM  27  44  27  43 /  20  20  10  10
LGD  35  40  31  39 /  50  60  30  10
GCD  32  43  22  38 /  40  30  30  10
DLS  38  49  35  48 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/77








000
FXUS66 KPQR 230531
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
930 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND LATE
TONIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SUNDAY MORNING...MOVING SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR FOR THE NORTHERN OREGON
PASSES. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO CALIFORNIA AND OREGON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH FOR SYSTEMS TO
CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER. VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY BUILD IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...WITH FOG POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION
FOR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.EVENING UPDATE...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN...BUT OVERALL THE AIR MASS IS BECOMING MORE STABLE.
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES HAS ALSO DECREASED...SO WE
CANCELLED TONIGHTS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A LITTLE EARLY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR TWO ABOVE 3500-4000 FT.

THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SOME PATCHES OF CLEARING THIS EVENING...
ALLOWING FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE WE COOLED LOW TEMPS
BY A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT IN THE VALLEYS...AND ADDED A LITTLE MORE FOG
TO THE FORECAST.

LOOKING FURTHER NORTH...A WELL-DEFINED AND COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS PUSHING INTO HAIDA GWAII...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING
OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL BE THE ONE
RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING ANOTHER FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE WA COAST BY SUNRISE AND
SPREADING SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN AROUND
4000 FEET MUCH OF THE DAY. COMBINE THIS WITH DECENT OROGRAPHICS AND
STRONG JET DYNAMICS...AND IT APPEARS OUR SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH
WA CASCADES LOOKS GOOD. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE
IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE JET OVER WASHINGTON. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHARP QPF GRADIENT SOUTH OF
THE COLUMBIA. THEREFORE THE OREGON CASCADES REMAIN OUT OF THE SNOW
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY...BUT MOUNT HOOD MAY RECEIVE CLOSE TO THE
NECESSARY 6 INCHES FOR AN ADVISORY. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL SEE MUCH
LESS.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 256 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A FEW UPPER SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NE PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THIS EVENING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE ARE
CURRENTLY AROUND 4500 FEET. WEB CAMS SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
WILLAMETTE...SANTIAM...AND TOMBSTONE PASSES WHICH ARE AT AROUND
5100...4800...AND 4200 FEET RESPECTIVELY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE SNOW
LEVEL IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN 4000 AND 4000 FEET. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
CHANGE VERY LITTLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS ARE DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MORE SHOWERS OFFSHORE APPROACHING THE AREA. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED WITH THESE OFFSHORE SHOWERS AND HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 7PM. SINCE THESE SHOWERS MAY NOT
MAKE IT TO THE CASCADES UNTIL AROUND 9 PM AM HESITANT TO END THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT MIDNIGHT END
TIME...EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE A CONSIDERATE BREAK IN SHOWERS
BETWEEN 4 AND 9 PM.

THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. CLOUD BREAKS MAY LEAD TO
RADIATION COOLING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS SOUTH OF SALEM. THE
NORTH IS LESS LIKELY TO HAVE FOG DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND
POSSIBLY CLOUDIER SKIES. THE CLOUDIER SKIES WILL BE DUE TO THE NEXT
APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.

DESPITE THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT WILL SNEAK
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS FRONT DOES NOT LOOK WELL DEFINED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY YET...BUT THE MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN RAIN AT THE SW WASHINGTON SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

THE HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER WHERE
THE SW WASHINGTON COAST AND THE WILLAPA HILLS CAN EXPECT AROUND A
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES WILL SEE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS...AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 4000 FEET...AND POSSIBLY 4 TO 9 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
ADDITIONAL SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED ANOTHER WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
4000 FEET.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE LESS FOR NW OREGON AND EXPECT AMOUNTS TO
BECOME GRADUALLY LESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH TOTALS FROM 0.40
INCH JUST NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO 0.10 INCHES ACROSS LANE COUNTY.

SHOWERS WILL DRAMATICALLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND EXPECT
MORE VALLEY FOG MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT NW
OREGON WILL BE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE TO THE SW AND ONE TO
THE NW. MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARDS KEEPING THESE STORMS OFFSHORE
MONDAY AND HAVE REDUCED POPS QUITE A BIT. HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF
THESE TWO STORMS WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE COAST AND
CASCADES.

THE TWO WEAK STORMS MAY MERGE OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING AND PUSH
ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON THIS BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION AND RAISE SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE THE
PASSES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TJ

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING OUT ON TUESDAY.
THEY TEND TO KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH WHICH JUSTIFIED
LOWERING THE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT KEEPING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
ALONG THE COAST. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY...BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. A MUCH
STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD POSE A THREAT TO TRAVELERS RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE STILL UNKNOWN AND WILL BE REFINED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. /64

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM OVERNIGHT IN THE VALLEY PARTICULARLY. THINK IT WILL STAY
WELL MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP VFR IN CONTROL AT THE COAST. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL WORK IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUN MORNING...BRINGING
INCREASING RAIN AND LIKELY MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHERNMOST TAF SITES
STARTING BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR
LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUN MORNING. PATCHY IFR FOG
IS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z IF SKIES CLEAR OUT. A FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS IN BY
AROUND 18Z SUN. BOWEN/PYLE

&&

.MARINE...A GENERAL LULL IN W/NW WINDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT....BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE YET ANOTHER FRONT
BRINGS MORE SMALL CRAFT WINDS ON MON.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 12 TO 14 FT AND SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT SUNDAY...SEAS MAY
INCREASE INTO THE MID TEENS. WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON MON AND
SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT UNTIL MIDWEEK. THE LATEST
ENP WAVE GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THEY FALL BELOW 10 FT TUE OR WED.
BOWEN/PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 2 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
     PST MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 230414
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
814 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...THERE ARE STILL SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OUT
THERE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES DUE TO MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW. WEB CAMS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND DIAMOND AND CRATER LAKES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
(NPWMFR) REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST. SHOWERS WILL END
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND
ONSHORE FLOW LESSENS. HAVE ADJUSTED TONIGHT`S MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A TAD LOWER BASED ON SOME CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST,
EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP IN MANY LOCATIONS TOWARD
SUNRISE. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING
OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG
THE COAST LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/00Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT. AS A
RESULT, AREAS OF LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. SOME
LOWER CIGS AND VIS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST SIDE AND IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE OCCURRING IS LOWER
THAN IT IS WEST OF THE CASCADES. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...WESTERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEKEND THEN SLOW DIMINISH INTO NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THAT MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTH
WINDS AND SEAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOP IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN COOS AND WESTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY AS A COOL POOL ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS
CREATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE
ISOLATED STORMS IN THE SAME AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE 4000 FEET WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
LIKELY AROUND CRATER AND DIAMOND LAKE AREAS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS, BUT WERE NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH MOST ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON THE GROUND, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP FOR THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS IF THERE`S ENOUGH CLEARING.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. IT`S NOT A SHARP
RIDGE, BUT RATHER FLAT, BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SHIFT THE STORM
TRACK NORTH OF OUR AREA AND WE`LL END UP DRY. THE MODELS SHOW A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE NAM IS NOW THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH RESPECT TO QPF AMOUNTS. THE EC AND GFS SHOW LITTLE OR NOTHING.
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY THE GFS HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND THE EC CONTINUES
TO REMAIN DRY. GUT FEELING IS THE NAM MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN 500 MB
HEIGHTS ARE RISING AS THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY. FOR NOW
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH THE EC HINTS AT SOME WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE WE`LL HAVE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR MOST OF NOT ALL WESTSIDE VALLEYS GIVEN THAT WE
HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ON THE GROUND AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE
TUESDAY MORNING AND PROBABLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY IN AN UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE HELD AT BAY TO OUR WEST DURING THE PERIOD, BUT INVERSIONS
ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG AND THUS VALLEY FOG IS STILL A GOOD BET.

THERE IS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE
AND THE ARRIVAL OF NEW PRECIPITATING SYSTEMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT DETERMINISTIC RUNS WHICH
SHOW A TROUGH OR SERIES OF TROUGHS COMING INTO OUR AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD. WHILE SPREADS ARE STILL HIGHER THAN I WOULD LIKE TO
SEE, THE SPREAD APPEARS TO HAVE MORE TO DO WITH THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGHS THAN THEIR EXISTENCE. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO A LOT HIGHER THAN CLIMO FOR POPS, BUT I DID
RAISE POPS, ESPECIALLY LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
 UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/MAP/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 230414
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
814 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...THERE ARE STILL SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OUT
THERE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES DUE TO MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW. WEB CAMS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND DIAMOND AND CRATER LAKES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
(NPWMFR) REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST. SHOWERS WILL END
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND
ONSHORE FLOW LESSENS. HAVE ADJUSTED TONIGHT`S MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A TAD LOWER BASED ON SOME CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST,
EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP IN MANY LOCATIONS TOWARD
SUNRISE. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING
OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG
THE COAST LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/00Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT. AS A
RESULT, AREAS OF LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. SOME
LOWER CIGS AND VIS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST SIDE AND IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE OCCURRING IS LOWER
THAN IT IS WEST OF THE CASCADES. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...WESTERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEKEND THEN SLOW DIMINISH INTO NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THAT MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTH
WINDS AND SEAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOP IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN COOS AND WESTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY AS A COOL POOL ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS
CREATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE
ISOLATED STORMS IN THE SAME AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE 4000 FEET WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
LIKELY AROUND CRATER AND DIAMOND LAKE AREAS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS, BUT WERE NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH MOST ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON THE GROUND, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP FOR THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS IF THERE`S ENOUGH CLEARING.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. IT`S NOT A SHARP
RIDGE, BUT RATHER FLAT, BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SHIFT THE STORM
TRACK NORTH OF OUR AREA AND WE`LL END UP DRY. THE MODELS SHOW A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE NAM IS NOW THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH RESPECT TO QPF AMOUNTS. THE EC AND GFS SHOW LITTLE OR NOTHING.
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY THE GFS HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND THE EC CONTINUES
TO REMAIN DRY. GUT FEELING IS THE NAM MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN 500 MB
HEIGHTS ARE RISING AS THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY. FOR NOW
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH THE EC HINTS AT SOME WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE WE`LL HAVE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR MOST OF NOT ALL WESTSIDE VALLEYS GIVEN THAT WE
HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ON THE GROUND AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE
TUESDAY MORNING AND PROBABLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY IN AN UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE HELD AT BAY TO OUR WEST DURING THE PERIOD, BUT INVERSIONS
ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG AND THUS VALLEY FOG IS STILL A GOOD BET.

THERE IS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE
AND THE ARRIVAL OF NEW PRECIPITATING SYSTEMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT DETERMINISTIC RUNS WHICH
SHOW A TROUGH OR SERIES OF TROUGHS COMING INTO OUR AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD. WHILE SPREADS ARE STILL HIGHER THAN I WOULD LIKE TO
SEE, THE SPREAD APPEARS TO HAVE MORE TO DO WITH THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGHS THAN THEIR EXISTENCE. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO A LOT HIGHER THAN CLIMO FOR POPS, BUT I DID
RAISE POPS, ESPECIALLY LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
 UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/MAP/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 230414
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
814 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...THERE ARE STILL SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OUT
THERE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES DUE TO MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW. WEB CAMS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND DIAMOND AND CRATER LAKES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
(NPWMFR) REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST. SHOWERS WILL END
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND
ONSHORE FLOW LESSENS. HAVE ADJUSTED TONIGHT`S MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A TAD LOWER BASED ON SOME CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST,
EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP IN MANY LOCATIONS TOWARD
SUNRISE. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING
OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG
THE COAST LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/00Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT. AS A
RESULT, AREAS OF LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. SOME
LOWER CIGS AND VIS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST SIDE AND IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE OCCURRING IS LOWER
THAN IT IS WEST OF THE CASCADES. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...WESTERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEKEND THEN SLOW DIMINISH INTO NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THAT MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTH
WINDS AND SEAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOP IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN COOS AND WESTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY AS A COOL POOL ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS
CREATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE
ISOLATED STORMS IN THE SAME AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE 4000 FEET WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
LIKELY AROUND CRATER AND DIAMOND LAKE AREAS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS, BUT WERE NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH MOST ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON THE GROUND, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP FOR THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS IF THERE`S ENOUGH CLEARING.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. IT`S NOT A SHARP
RIDGE, BUT RATHER FLAT, BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SHIFT THE STORM
TRACK NORTH OF OUR AREA AND WE`LL END UP DRY. THE MODELS SHOW A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE NAM IS NOW THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH RESPECT TO QPF AMOUNTS. THE EC AND GFS SHOW LITTLE OR NOTHING.
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY THE GFS HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND THE EC CONTINUES
TO REMAIN DRY. GUT FEELING IS THE NAM MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN 500 MB
HEIGHTS ARE RISING AS THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY. FOR NOW
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH THE EC HINTS AT SOME WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE WE`LL HAVE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR MOST OF NOT ALL WESTSIDE VALLEYS GIVEN THAT WE
HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ON THE GROUND AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE
TUESDAY MORNING AND PROBABLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY IN AN UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE HELD AT BAY TO OUR WEST DURING THE PERIOD, BUT INVERSIONS
ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG AND THUS VALLEY FOG IS STILL A GOOD BET.

THERE IS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE
AND THE ARRIVAL OF NEW PRECIPITATING SYSTEMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT DETERMINISTIC RUNS WHICH
SHOW A TROUGH OR SERIES OF TROUGHS COMING INTO OUR AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD. WHILE SPREADS ARE STILL HIGHER THAN I WOULD LIKE TO
SEE, THE SPREAD APPEARS TO HAVE MORE TO DO WITH THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGHS THAN THEIR EXISTENCE. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO A LOT HIGHER THAN CLIMO FOR POPS, BUT I DID
RAISE POPS, ESPECIALLY LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
 UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/MAP/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 230414
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
814 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...THERE ARE STILL SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OUT
THERE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES DUE TO MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW. WEB CAMS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND DIAMOND AND CRATER LAKES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
(NPWMFR) REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST. SHOWERS WILL END
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND
ONSHORE FLOW LESSENS. HAVE ADJUSTED TONIGHT`S MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A TAD LOWER BASED ON SOME CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST,
EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP IN MANY LOCATIONS TOWARD
SUNRISE. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING
OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG
THE COAST LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/00Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT. AS A
RESULT, AREAS OF LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. SOME
LOWER CIGS AND VIS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST SIDE AND IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE OCCURRING IS LOWER
THAN IT IS WEST OF THE CASCADES. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...WESTERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEKEND THEN SLOW DIMINISH INTO NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THAT MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTH
WINDS AND SEAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOP IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN COOS AND WESTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY AS A COOL POOL ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS
CREATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE
ISOLATED STORMS IN THE SAME AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE 4000 FEET WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
LIKELY AROUND CRATER AND DIAMOND LAKE AREAS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS, BUT WERE NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH MOST ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON THE GROUND, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP FOR THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS IF THERE`S ENOUGH CLEARING.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. IT`S NOT A SHARP
RIDGE, BUT RATHER FLAT, BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SHIFT THE STORM
TRACK NORTH OF OUR AREA AND WE`LL END UP DRY. THE MODELS SHOW A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE NAM IS NOW THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH RESPECT TO QPF AMOUNTS. THE EC AND GFS SHOW LITTLE OR NOTHING.
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY THE GFS HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND THE EC CONTINUES
TO REMAIN DRY. GUT FEELING IS THE NAM MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN 500 MB
HEIGHTS ARE RISING AS THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY. FOR NOW
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH THE EC HINTS AT SOME WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE WE`LL HAVE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR MOST OF NOT ALL WESTSIDE VALLEYS GIVEN THAT WE
HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ON THE GROUND AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE
TUESDAY MORNING AND PROBABLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY IN AN UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE HELD AT BAY TO OUR WEST DURING THE PERIOD, BUT INVERSIONS
ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG AND THUS VALLEY FOG IS STILL A GOOD BET.

THERE IS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE
AND THE ARRIVAL OF NEW PRECIPITATING SYSTEMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT DETERMINISTIC RUNS WHICH
SHOW A TROUGH OR SERIES OF TROUGHS COMING INTO OUR AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD. WHILE SPREADS ARE STILL HIGHER THAN I WOULD LIKE TO
SEE, THE SPREAD APPEARS TO HAVE MORE TO DO WITH THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGHS THAN THEIR EXISTENCE. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO A LOT HIGHER THAN CLIMO FOR POPS, BUT I DID
RAISE POPS, ESPECIALLY LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
 UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/MAP/TRW




000
FXUS65 KBOI 230326
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
826 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAY GET A
QUICK INCH OR TWO ON GRASSY AREAS ACROSS THE WEST MAGIC VALLEY
SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 32F...SNOW SHOWERS THERE WILL
DECREASE TO SCATTERED FOR TWIN/JEROME BY 11 PM MST. MODERATE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NE OREGON MTNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF OWYHEE/TWIN FALLS
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND CENTRAL ID MTNS BEYOND SUNDAY
EVENING. POST COLD FRONTAL GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY
AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE 2-4 MB/3HRS ACROSS SW IDAHO THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
NW WINDS TO 10 MPH TO ONTARIO TOWARDS 11 PM BUT SNOW COVER DID NOT
ENTIRELY GO AWAY...SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST LESS THAN 10 MPH
THROUGH SUNDAY...SO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FROM THE GFS ARE
PREFERRED OVERNIGHT AS THEY CAPTURE THE 35MPH OVER TWIN FALLS AND
CALM TO 10 MPH OVER THE WEISER BASIN AND LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
PREV. NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION....EXPECT SCATTERED MVFR AND LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW
IN THE KTWF/KJER AREA UNTIL ABOUT 06Z. THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY
OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO INCLUDING KMYL WILL SEE SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 18Z.
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE KBOI-KONO 06Z-18Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-
15 KTS EXCEPT 15-20 KTS IN THE KBKE AND KTWF/KJER AREAS UNTIL
ABOUT 06Z. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST UP TO 30 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...HELPING TO SCOUR AWAY MOST OF THE
INVERSION THAT HAS PLAGUED THE TREASURE VALLEY...AND MANY OTHER
SMALLER VALLEYS...THE PAST WEEK OR SO. WE FEEL WEAK INVERSION
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IN THE EXTREME
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
A MODERATE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO MOST
OF THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS THIS EVENING RANGE FROM 4500 FEET IN THE
SOUTH TO 3500 FEET IN THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
DROP TO A RANGE OF 3400 FEET IN THE SOUTH TO 2700 FEET IN THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THIS
EVENING. FOG IS LIKELY IN SHELTERED MTN VALLEYS TONIGHT...ALONG
WITH THE USUAL AREAS NEAR MCCALL... BAKER CITY...AND IN THE
EXTREME LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. WITH MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK RIDGING TOMORROW...SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
MTNS OF SW IDAHO AND NRN BAKER COUNTY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF
MONDAY. THE VALLEYS WILL BE DRY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPS ON
MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
READINGS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO. CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE WESTERN SNAKE RIVER PLAIN SHOULD PROVIDE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS IS WHEN THE INVERSION WILL BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE VALLEY
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON SNOW COVER. AT THE MOMENT...THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR COLDER TEMPS AND INVERSION FOG/STRATUS
BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE INVERSION FORECAST REMAINS LOW.
AFTER FRIDAY THE RIDGE APPEARS TO WEAKEN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS/WH




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