[top]
000
FXUS64 KMRX 220532
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012
.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA. WILL SEE
SOME SHOWERS AROUND...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CARRY TEMPO THUNDER FOR A FEW HOURS DURING
AFTERNOON AT TRI...WITH NO MORE THAN VCSH OR VCTS AT OTHER SITES
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOWER PROBABILITIES. CIGS/VIS
PROBLEMATIC GIVEN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN ATMOSPHERE. MAY SEE MORE
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST CARRY MVFR VIS IN
FOG ALL SITES FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LW
[top]
000
FXUS64 KMEG 220527 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1227 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012/
UPDATE...
0115Z GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS
MOVING INTO THE MS RIVER DELTA AREA OF THE MIDSOUTH. 01Z SURFACE
MAP SHOWED A LOW OVER NORTHWEST AL. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HOUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW
OVER FAR NORTHEAST MS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO LIFT INTO AL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THE MID LEVEL TROF AXIS LIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTH MS AND FOCUSES BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE
AREA.
FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER TO CLEAR SKIES AND ZERO POPS WEST OF
THE MS RIVER. ONLY MINOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS MADE IN THE MOST
RECENT UPDATE.
PWB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012/
A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT BISECTS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WARM...MOIST...AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS
FILTERING IN TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL WITH DEWPOINTS NOW
FALLING INTO THE MID 50S.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS AS OF MID
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
FRONT WILL FORCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI
BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE EVENING. WEAK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORMS DISORGANIZED...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG PULSE STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS MLCAPES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG...LI/S TO -6C...AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM REMAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
MID SOUTH LATER TONIGHT WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PLEASANT RELIEF
FROM THE HOT AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. SUNNY SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY VALUES...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED AREAWIDE. DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
50S ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S BY THURSDAY MORNING.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
MID SOUTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD TO 592DM WITH 925MB TEMPS RISING TO
GREATER THAN +26C ON SATURDAY AND BETWEEN +26C AND +28C ON SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS HEAT SHOULD ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD EXCEED 100 DEGREES OVER
THE WEEKEND IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE (22/06Z-23/06Z)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE KTUP AREA PRODUCING MVFR
VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 22/09Z AND 22/12Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ARS/JCL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 78 58 86 67 / 0 0 0 10
MKL 77 52 84 59 / 0 0 0 10
JBR 78 54 86 64 / 0 0 0 10
TUP 79 54 85 58 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KOHX 220356
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1056 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012
.UPDATE...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
BULK OF SHRA/TSRA HAVE MOVED OUT OF MIDDLE TN...BUT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN KY MOVING SOUTHWARD WHICH MAY
AFFECT CSV OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE VCSH MENTION FOR CSV BUT
NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT CKV/BNA. VFR CIGS ANTICIPATED THIS TAF
PERIOD BUT PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT CKV/BNA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH MVFR/IFR VIS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT CSV. UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE MIDDLE AND EAST TN TOMORROW WITH
CLOUDS LINGERING AND A FEW SHRA OR EVEN TSRA AT CSV. LIGHT NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012/
UPDATE...
STRONGER STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH NICKEL SIZED
HAIL REPORTED AT SAINT JOSEPH NEAR THE ALABAMA BORDER MOMENTS AGO.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN PARTS OF
LAWRENCE COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG PLATEAU AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS BUT ALL IN ALL AIR MASS HAS STABILIZED ALOT SINCE
EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. PLAN ON TAKING MENTION
OF SHOWERS OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF THE MID STATE. WILL BASE UPDATE ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE
NEXT HALF HOUR WITH UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES AROUND 930 PM CDT.
UPPER TROUGH STILL OVER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY AND WILL BE SLOW
TO WORK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER BELIEVE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE LATE
NIGHT AND MAINLY EASTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...ITS
GONNA BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012/
UPDATE...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED SOUTH OF CKV BUT CONTINUES AROUND CSV WITH
SOME ISOLATED SHRA NEAR BNA. HEAVY TSRA WITH IFR OR LOWER VIS AND
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT CSV FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...BUT ONLY
VCSH EXPECTED AT BNA THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECTED MVFR/IFR
VIS AT ALL AIRPORTS DUE TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS CONTINUING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...18Z FRONTAL POSITION FROM NCEP HAS THE FRONT ALONG A
CLARKSVILLE TN TO GREENVILLE MS LINE. DEWPOINT GRADIENT ON LATEST MSAS
ANALYSIS SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT IT IS A BIT FURTHER WEST. AT ANY RATE...
THE FRONT WILL PASS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH POPS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
AND ENDING IN THE PLATEAU COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.
SPC HAS OUTLOOKED SLIGHT RISK SVR TSTMS FOR SOME OF OUR WRN
COUNTIES PLUS NRN MS AND WRN TN. SIMILAR TO YSTDA AND THE DAY
BEFORE...SOUNDING INDICATES WEAK SHEAR BUT GOOD THERMAL
INSTABILITY. HPC 24 RAINFALL TOTALS RUNNING .25 TO .50 INCHES WITH
MODELS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
FORECAST IS DRY AFTER TUE. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME DOUBT ABOUT TUE
NGT AND WED DUE TO THE MODELS TAKING THE SRN PORTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND TEMPORARILY CUTTING IT OFF NEAR THE TN/NC BORDER FROM
THE MAIN FLOW. THIS MIGHT EXTEND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PLATEAU
COUNTIES IN THIS PERIOD.
MOSTLY DRY FOR WED THRU SUN AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILD OVER THE
AREA AND HIGHS IN THE 90S RETURNS TO THE FCST FOR THU THRU SUN.
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT ON MON AND I HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR MON/MON NGT.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
000
FXUS64 KMRX 220327
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1127 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...
NOT GOING TO SEND UPDATE. THE GOOD CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER WEST HALF...AND STILL SOME MTN CONVECTION POSSIBLE
AS EVIDENCED OVER PORTIONS OF SW VA. WILL NOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR THE AREA.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
GC
000
FXUS64 KOHX 220210
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
910 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012
.UPDATE...
STRONGER STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH NICKEL SIZED
HAIL REPORTED AT SAINT JOSEPH NEAR THE ALABAMA BORDER MOMENTS AGO.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN PARTS OF
LAWRENCE COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG PLATEAU AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS BUT ALL IN ALL AIR MASS HAS STABILIZED ALOT SINCE
EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. PLAN ON TAKING MENTION
OF SHOWERS OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF THE MID STATE. WILL BASE UPDATE ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE
NEXT HALF HOUR WITH UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES AROUND 930 PM CDT.
UPPER TROUGH STILL OVER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY AND WILL BE SLOW
TO WORK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER BELIEVE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE LATE
NIGHT AND MAINLY EASTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...ITS
GONNA BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012/
UPDATE...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED SOUTH OF CKV BUT CONTINUES AROUND CSV WITH
SOME ISOLATED SHRA NEAR BNA. HEAVY TSRA WITH IFR OR LOWER VIS AND
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT CSV FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...BUT ONLY
VCSH EXPECTED AT BNA THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECTED MVFR/IFR
VIS AT ALL AIRPORTS DUE TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS CONTINUING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...18Z FRONTAL POSITION FROM NCEP HAS THE FRONT ALONG A
CLARKSVILLE TN TO GREENVILLE MS LINE. DEWPOINT GRADIENT ON LATEST MSAS
ANALYSIS SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT IT IS A BIT FURTHER WEST. AT ANY RATE...
THE FRONT WILL PASS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH POPS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
AND ENDING IN THE PLATEAU COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.
SPC HAS OUTLOOKED SLIGHT RISK SVR TSTMS FOR SOME OF OUR WRN
COUNTIES PLUS NRN MS AND WRN TN. SIMILAR TO YSTDA AND THE DAY
BEFORE...SOUNDING INDICATES WEAK SHEAR BUT GOOD THERMAL
INSTABILITY. HPC 24 RAINFALL TOTALS RUNNING .25 TO .50 INCHES WITH
MODELS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
FORECAST IS DRY AFTER TUE. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME DOUBT ABOUT TUE
NGT AND WED DUE TO THE MODELS TAKING THE SRN PORTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND TEMPORARILY CUTTING IT OFF NEAR THE TN/NC BORDER FROM
THE MAIN FLOW. THIS MIGHT EXTEND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PLATEAU
COUNTIES IN THIS PERIOD.
MOSTLY DRY FOR WED THRU SUN AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILD OVER THE
AREA AND HIGHS IN THE 90S RETURNS TO THE FCST FOR THU THRU SUN.
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT ON MON AND I HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR MON/MON NGT.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KMEG 220148 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
848 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012
.UPDATE...
0115Z GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS
MOVING INTO THE MS RIVER DELTA AREA OF THE MIDSOUTH. 01Z SURFACE
MAP SHOWED A LOW OVER NORTHWEST AL. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HOUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW
OVER FAR NORTHEAST MS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO LIFT INTO AL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THE MID LEVEL TROF AXIS LIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTH MS AND FOCUSES BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE
AREA.
FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER TO CLEAR SKIES AND ZERO POPS WEST OF
THE MS RIVER. ONLY MINOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS MADE IN THE MOST
RECENT UPDATE.
PWB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT BISECTS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WARM...MOIST...AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS
FILTERING IN TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL WITH DEWPOINTS NOW FALLING INTO
THE MID 50S.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS AS OF MID
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
FRONT WILL FORCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI
BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE EVENING. WEAK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORMS DISORGANIZED...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG PULSE STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS MLCAPES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG...LI/S TO -6C...AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM REMAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
MID SOUTH LATER TONIGHT WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PLEASANT RELIEF
FROM THE HOT AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. SUNNY SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY VALUES...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED AREAWIDE. DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
50S ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S BY THURSDAY MORNING.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
MID SOUTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD TO 592DM WITH 925MB TEMPS RISING TO
GREATER THAN +26C ON SATURDAY AND BETWEEN +26C AND +28C ON SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS HEAT SHOULD ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD EXCEED 100 DEGREES OVER
THE WEEKEND IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM
TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ARS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 59 78 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
MKL 54 77 52 84 / 10 0 0 0
JBR 55 78 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
TUP 59 79 54 85 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 220025
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
725 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012
.UPDATE...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED SOUTH OF CKV BUT CONTINUES AROUND CSV WITH
SOME ISOLATED SHRA NEAR BNA. HEAVY TSRA WITH IFR OR LOWER VIS AND
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT CSV FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...BUT ONLY
VCSH EXPECTED AT BNA THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECTED MVFR/IFR
VIS AT ALL AIRPORTS DUE TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS CONTINUING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...18Z FRONTAL POSITION FROM NCEP HAS THE FRONT ALONG A
CLARKSVILLE TN TO GREENVILLE MS LINE. DEWPOINT GRADIENT ON LATEST MSAS
ANALYSIS SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT IT IS A BIT FURTHER WEST. AT ANY RATE...
THE FRONT WILL PASS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH POPS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
AND ENDING IN THE PLATEAU COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.
SPC HAS OUTLOOKED SLIGHT RISK SVR TSTMS FOR SOME OF OUR WRN
COUNTIES PLUS NRN MS AND WRN TN. SIMILAR TO YSTDA AND THE DAY
BEFORE...SOUNDING INDICATES WEAK SHEAR BUT GOOD THERMAL
INSTABILITY. HPC 24 RAINFALL TOTALS RUNNING .25 TO .50 INCHES WITH
MODELS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
FORECAST IS DRY AFTER TUE. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME DOUBT ABOUT TUE
NGT AND WED DUE TO THE MODELS TAKING THE SRN PORTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND TEMPORARILY CUTTING IT OFF NEAR THE TN/NC BORDER FROM
THE MAIN FLOW. THIS MIGHT EXTEND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PLATEAU
COUNTIES IN THIS PERIOD.
MOSTLY DRY FOR WED THRU SUN AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILD OVER THE
AREA AND HIGHS IN THE 90S RETURNS TO THE FCST FOR THU THRU SUN.
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT ON MON AND I HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR MON/MON NGT.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
000
FXUS64 KMEG 212327
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
627 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT BISECTS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WARM...MOIST...AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS
FILTERING IN TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL WITH DEWPOINTS NOW FALLING INTO
THE MID 50S.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS AS OF MID
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
FRONT WILL FORCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI
BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE EVENING. WEAK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORMS DISORGANIZED...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG PULSE STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS MLCAPES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG...LI/S TO -6C...AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM REMAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
MID SOUTH LATER TONIGHT WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PLEASANT RELIEF
FROM THE HOT AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. SUNNY SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY VALUES...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED AREAWIDE. DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
50S ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S BY THURSDAY MORNING.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
MID SOUTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD TO 592DM WITH 925MB TEMPS RISING TO
GREATER THAN +26C ON SATURDAY AND BETWEEN +26C AND +28C ON SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS HEAT SHOULD ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD EXCEED 100 DEGREES OVER
THE WEEKEND IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM
TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ARS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 59 78 58 86 / 10 0 0 0
MKL 54 77 52 84 / 10 0 0 0
JBR 55 78 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
TUP 59 79 54 85 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 212018
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
318 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...18Z FRONTAL POSITION FROM NCEP HAS THE FRONT ALONG A
CLARKSVILLE TN TO GREENVILLE MS LINE. DEWPOINT GRADIENT ON LATEST MSAS
ANALYSIS SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT IT IS A BIT FURTHER WEST. AT ANY RATE...
THE FRONT WILL PASS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH POPS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
AND ENDING IN THE PLATEAU COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.
SPC HAS OUTLOOKED SLIGHT RISK SVR TSTMS FOR SOME OF OUR WRN
COUNTIES PLUS NRN MS AND WRN TN. SIMILAR TO YSTDA AND THE DAY
BEFORE...SOUNDING INDICATES WEAK SHEAR BUT GOOD THERMAL
INSTABILITY. HPC 24 RAINFALL TOTALS RUNNING .25 TO .50 INCHES WITH
MODELS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
FORECAST IS DRY AFTER TUE. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME DOUBT ABOUT TUE
NGT AND WED DUE TO THE MODELS TAKING THE SRN PORTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND TEMPORARILY CUTTING IT OFF NEAR THE TN/NC BORDER FROM
THE MAIN FLOW. THIS MIGHT EXTEND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PLATEAU
COUNTIES IN THIS PERIOD.
MOSTLY DRY FOR WED THRU SUN AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILD OVER THE
AREA AND HIGHS IN THE 90S RETURNS TO THE FCST FOR THU THRU SUN.
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT ON MON AND I HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR MON/MON NGT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 60 75 56 82 / 60 05 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 56 76 52 82 / 40 05 05 05
CROSSVILLE 57 72 54 77 / 60 30 10 10
COLUMBIA 60 76 55 82 / 60 05 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 59 76 53 82 / 60 05 10 05
WAVERLY 56 76 52 82 / 40 05 05 05
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
JLM
000
FXUS64 KMEG 212016
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
316 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...
A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT BISECTS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WARM...MOIST...AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS
FILTERING IN TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL WITH DEWPOINTS NOW FALLING INTO
THE MID 50S.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS AS OF MID
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
FRONT WILL FORCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI
BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE EVENING. WEAK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORMS DISORGANIZED...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG PULSE STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS MLCAPES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG...LI/S TO -6C...AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM REMAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
MID SOUTH LATER TONIGHT WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PLEASANT RELIEF
FROM THE HOT AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. SUNNY SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY VALUES...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED AREAWIDE. DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
50S ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S BY THURSDAY MORNING.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
MID SOUTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD TO 592DM WITH 925MB TEMPS RISING TO
GREATER THAN +26C ON SATURDAY AND BETWEEN +26C AND +28C ON SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS HEAT SHOULD ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD EXCEED 100 DEGREES OVER
THE WEEKEND IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAF CYCLE
NOTHING ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
AREAS. HAVE PLACED TS IN MKL AND TUP FOR PART OF THIS AFTERNOON.
NOT AS CONFIDENT AT MKL THERE WILL BE TS HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS. TLSJR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 60 78 58 86 / 10 0 0 0
MKL 54 77 52 84 / 20 0 0 0
JBR 55 78 54 86 / 10 0 0 0
TUP 60 79 54 85 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 211921
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
321 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED SHEAR
AXIS ALONG WITH ELEVATED TERRAIN ON THE PLATEAU...LOOK TO BE
ORGANIZING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR AREA. WE
HAVE RECEIVED SOME PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTS ABOUT THESE STORMS.
INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM CELLS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET VERY
ORGANIZED AS SHEAR IS VERY WEAK...BUT THERE COULD BE BRIEF TIMES
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS GET STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL AND
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH. THESE INSTANCES WOULD LIKELY LAST ONLY 5-10
MINUTES AS DOWNDRAFTS CHOKE OFF UPDRAFT AREA. STEERING FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON...SO SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
MOVE MORE SLOWLY LATER.
LOOKS LIKE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER US FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. WILL BE NEEDING TO KEEP POPS IN FORECAST AREA WIDE FOR THESE
TWO PERIODS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WASHING THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER TUESDAY...BUT NOTHING DRAMATIC.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MAIN FORECAST
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MIDWEEK FROM A DEPARTING UPPER-TROUGH/LOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL PROPAGATE
THROUGH THE VOLUNTEER STATE ON TUESDAY GRADUALLY EVOLVING INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER EAST TENNESSEE/WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS IT SLOWLY
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY IS WARRANTED...
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FAVORING THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES /WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL
BE LOCATED/. SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO FAVOR THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL WANE SIGNIFICANTLY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS
THE UPPER-LOW EXITS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND BECOME
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG WITH SOME UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AND THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH BECOMES SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MODELS ARE SHOWING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO AROUND 20-21C BY THIS TIME PERIOD. GIVEN THESE
VALUES...THINK THAT MOS GUIDANCE IS DEFAULTING TOO MUCH TO CLIMO
DURING AND HAVE RAISED TEMPS IN THE GRIDS BY A FEW DEGREES. THINK
THAT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SEEM REASONABLE FOR
FRIDAY...AND THAT THEY SHOULD INCREASE TO THE LOW TO EVEN THE MID
90S ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. WITH SOME
MOISTURE PRESENT UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED CONVECTION ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 61 80 58 83 60 / 40 30 20 20 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 79 57 81 59 / 50 40 40 30 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 60 80 57 81 59 / 50 40 30 30 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 78 54 75 55 / 40 60 50 40 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
GM/AMP
000
FXUS64 KOHX 211835
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
135 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012
.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS.
AREA OF RW/TRW EXPECTED IN W MID TN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. FRONT
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN S IN/SE MO. RECENT RADAR ACTIVITY IN NW
MID TN WL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...MOVG SLWLY SE. EXPECT A COUPLE OF
HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THUNDER AT KBNA-KCSV THIS AFTN-
EVE...20-24Z KBNA AND 22-02Z KCSV. SOME MVFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE
TNGT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2012/
UPDATE...COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH 50-60 POPS
EXPECTED. GOOD DEAL OF SUN CURRENTLY BUT WITH THE FRONT TO THE
WEST THINGS SHOULD CLOUD BACK UP BY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK FOR SVR
TSTMS FROM SPC IS MINIMAL. WEAK SHEAR COMBINED WITH GOOD THERMAL
INSTABILITY MAY RENDER A FEW NEAR SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. POST
FRONTAL RAIN DIMINISHES TONIGHT AND ENDS ON TUE WITH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST FAIRLY DRY.
BIG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDSTATE ON FRI AND STAYS IN
PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST MON. OF COURSE THAT MEANS MORE HOT WX TO
CONTINUE. EXCEPT FOR TOMORROW...LOOKS LIKE WE`LL CONTINUE 5-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2012/
UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH SCT TSRA. EXACT COVERAGE AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...BUT
GENERALLY BETTER CHANCES FROM 20-24Z...AROUND AND EAST OF KBNA AS
FRONT MEETS DAYTIME MAX HEATING. OUTSIDE TSRA...CONDITIONS WILL BE
MOSTLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME MVFR BR THIS MORNING AND MAYBE AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
MASSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MS
TO CROSSVILLE THEN NORTH TO NEAR CINCINNATI CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SCT CONVECTION ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND APPROACHING FRONTAL BNDRY. POPS WILL BE IN THE 50%
RANGE WEST AND 60% EAST TODAY. UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS A DEG OR 2 DUE
TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST ACRS THE AREA TNGT INTO
TUESDAY ALLOWING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER IN
THE EAST. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE PERIOD. MAV TEMPS LOOK RSNBL TNGT AND TUESDAY.
OTHER THAN ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION LATER IN THE WEEK THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND INCREASINGLY HOT. LOW 90S
AWAY FROM THE PLATEAU WILL BE COMMONPLACE FRI-SUNDAY AND A FEW
SPOTS COULD GET EVEN HOTTER.
TJ
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04
000
FXUS64 KMEG 211805
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
105 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO RAISE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...
A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE INTO EAST
ARKANSAS JUST TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE SCATTERING OUT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER ACROSS THE
AREA TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MINIMAL CAPPING AND FAIRLY STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SBCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG...LI/S BETWEEN
-4C AND -7C...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE AROUND 7.0 C/KM BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHICH SHOULD INCLUDE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND EAST ARKANSAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40....AND ALL OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
SHOULD HELP FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT AND ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. THE CURRENT HWO HANDLES THIS THREAT WELL AND NO
CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
THE ONLY UPDATES WILL BE TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES HAVE BEEN
SENT.
JLH
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND COVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF WEST TENNESSEE. TEMPS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN. HOWEVER EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HEATING COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROF TO PRODUCE
SBCAPES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -4C TO
-6C ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH. WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO BE QUITE WEAK SO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK
UNLIKELY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT AND SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH
SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AT MANY PLACES.
TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF OVER EAST TENNESSEE ON
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A PERFECT DAY ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITIES. TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE APPALACHIANS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH. AS A RESULT EXPECT
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB EACH
DAY REACHING THE MID 90S BY THE WEEKEND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
START TO CREEP UP AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS MOVE INTO THE MID 60S.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAF CYCLE
NOTHING ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
AREAS. HAVE PLACED TS IN MKL AND TUP FOR PART OF THIS AFTERNOON.
NOT AS CONFIDENT AT MKL THERE WILL BE TS HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS. TLSJR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 82 60 79 58 / 50 10 10 0
MKL 81 54 78 51 / 40 10 10 0
JBR 80 54 79 54 / 20 10 10 0
TUP 85 60 80 54 / 60 20 10 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 211752
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
152 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012
.AVIATION...
SHEAR AXIS FROM KLOZ TO KCHA LOOKS TO BE HELPING TO ORGANIZE
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR AREA. STORMS ALSO
DEVELOPING ALONG THE PLATEAU AS WELL.
INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM CELLS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET VERY
ORGANIZED AS SHEAR IS VERY WEAK...BUT THERE COULD BE BRIEF TIMES
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS GET STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL AND
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH. THESE INSTANCES WOULD LIKELY LAST ONLY
5-10 MINUTES AS DOWNDRAFTS CHOKE OFF UPDRAFT AREA.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
GM
000
FXUS64 KMEG 211604
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1104 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO RAISE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE INTO EAST
ARKANSAS JUST TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE SCATTERING OUT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER ACROSS THE
AREA TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MINIMAL CAPPING AND FAIRLY STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SBCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG...LI/S BETWEEN
-4C AND -7C...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE AROUND 7.0 C/KM BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHICH SHOULD INCLUDE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND EAST ARKANSAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40....AND ALL OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
SHOULD HELP FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT AND ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. THE CURRENT HWO HANDLES THIS THREAT WELL AND NO
CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
THE ONLY UPDATES WILL BE TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES HAVE BEEN
SENT.
JLH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND COVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF WEST TENNESSEE. TEMPS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN. HOWEVER EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HEATING COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROF TO PRODUCE
SBCAPES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -4C TO
-6C ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH. WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO BE QUITE WEAK SO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK
UNLIKELY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT AND SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH
SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AT MANY PLACES.
TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF OVER EAST TENNESSEE ON
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A PERFECT DAY ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITIES. TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE APPALACHIANS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH. AS A RESULT EXPECT
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB EACH
DAY REACHING THE MID 90S BY THE WEEKEND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
START TO CREEP UP AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS MOVE INTO THE MID 60S.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM AT TAF TIME WAS
CONCENTRATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING THEN REFIRE UP BY 18Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
TEMPO MVFR VIS AT TUP...WHERE A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE MOST
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VCSH AT JBR AND A TEMPO FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER AT MEM AND MKL. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT
4-7 KTS INCREASING TO 8-10KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AT JBR THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE
PERIOD WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS.
JAB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 82 60 79 58 / 50 10 10 0
MKL 81 54 78 51 / 40 10 10 0
JBR 80 54 79 54 / 20 10 10 0
TUP 85 60 80 54 / 60 20 10 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 211524
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1024 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2012
.UPDATE...COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH 50-60 POPS
EXPECTED. GOOD DEAL OF SUN CURRENTLY BUT WITH THE FRONT TO THE
WEST THINGS SHOULD CLOUD BACK UP BY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK FOR SVR
TSTMS FROM SPC IS MINIMAL. WEAK SHEAR COMBINED WITH GOOD THERMAL
INSTABILITY MAY RENDER A FEW NEAR SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. POST
FRONTAL RAIN DIMINISHES TONIGHT AND ENDS ON TUE WITH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST FAIRLY DRY.
BIG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDSTATE ON FRI AND STAYS IN
PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST MON. OF COURSE THAT MEANS MORE HOT WX TO
CONTINUE. EXCEPT FOR TOMORROW...LOOKS LIKE WE`LL CONTINUE 5-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2012/
UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH SCT TSRA. EXACT COVERAGE AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...BUT
GENERALLY BETTER CHANCES FROM 20-24Z...AROUND AND EAST OF KBNA AS
FRONT MEETS DAYTIME MAX HEATING. OUTSIDE TSRA...CONDITIONS WILL BE
MOSTLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME MVFR BR THIS MORNING AND MAYBE AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
MASSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MS
TO CROSSVILLE THEN NORTH TO NEAR CINCINNATI CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SCT CONVECTION ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND APPROACHING FRONTAL BNDRY. POPS WILL BE IN THE 50%
RANGE WEST AND 60% EAST TODAY. UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS A DEG OR 2 DUE
TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST ACRS THE AREA TNGT INTO
TUESDAY ALLOWING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER IN
THE EAST. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE PERIOD. MAV TEMPS LOOK RSNBL TNGT AND TUESDAY.
OTHER THAN ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION LATER IN THE WEEK THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND INCREASINGLY HOT. LOW 90S
AWAY FROM THE PLATEAU WILL BE COMMONPLACE FRI-SUNDAY AND A FEW
SPOTS COULD GET EVEN HOTTER.
TJ
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
18
000
FXUS64 KMRX 211515
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1115 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...
NO REAL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKING LIKE PLATEAU WILL BE
FAVORED AREA OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. MID-UPPER WIND FIELD IS
VERY LIGHT SO MOVEMENT OF STORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC. WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR HEAVIER RAINS SITTING OVER AN AREA.
ALSO...A WEAK NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SEEMS LIKE IT
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR BAND OF SHOWERS IN WEST-CENTRAL THROUGH
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF REGION. BETWEEN THIS AXIS AND CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER PLATEAU...LOOKS LIKE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DOES
EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS WEST.
KEEPING MAX TEMPS AS-IS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 62 80 59 84 / 50 40 20 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 61 78 57 82 / 50 50 30 10 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 84 61 78 57 82 / 50 50 40 10 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 56 76 54 79 / 40 50 50 30 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
GM
000
FXUS64 KOHX 211145
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
645 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2012
.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH SCT TSRA. EXACT COVERAGE AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...BUT
GENERALLY BETTER CHANCES FROM 20-24Z...AROUND AND EAST OF KBNA AS
FRONT MEETS DAYTIME MAX HEATING. OUTSIDE TSRA...CONDITIONS WILL BE
MOSTLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME MVFR BR THIS MORNING AND MAYBE AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
MASSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MS
TO CROSSVILLE THEN NORTH TO NEAR CINCINNATI CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SCT CONVECTION ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND APPROACHING FRONTAL BNDRY. POPS WILL BE IN THE 50%
RANGE WEST AND 60% EAST TODAY. UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS A DEG OR 2 DUE
TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST ACRS THE AREA TNGT INTO
TUESDAY ALLOWING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER IN
THE EAST. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE PERIOD. MAV TEMPS LOOK RSNBL TNGT AND TUESDAY.
OTHER THAN ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION LATER IN THE WEEK THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND INCREASINGLY HOT. LOW 90S
AWAY FROM THE PLATEAU WILL BE COMMONPLACE FRI-SUNDAY AND A FEW
SPOTS COULD GET EVEN HOTTER.
TJ
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 211126
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
626 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND COVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF WEST TENNESSEE. TEMPS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN. HOWEVER EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HEATING COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROF TO PRODUCE
SBCAPES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -4C TO
-6C ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH. WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO BE QUITE WEAK SO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK
UNLIKELY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT AND SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH
SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AT MANY PLACES.
TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF OVER EAST TENNESSEE ON
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A PERFECT DAY ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITIES. TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE APPALACHIANS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH. AS A RESULT EXPECT
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB EACH
DAY REACHING THE MID 90S BY THE WEEKEND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
START TO CREEP UP AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS MOVE INTO THE MID 60S.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM AT TAF TIME WAS
CONCENTRATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING THEN REFIRE UP BY 18Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
TEMPO MVFR VIS AT TUP...WHERE A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE MOST
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VCSH AT JBR AND A TEMPO FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER AT MEM AND MKL. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT
4-7 KTS INCREASING TO 8-10KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AT JBR THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE
PERIOD WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS.
JAB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 82 60 79 58 / 40 10 10 0
MKL 81 54 78 51 / 40 10 10 0
JBR 80 54 79 54 / 20 10 10 0
TUP 85 60 80 54 / 50 20 10 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 211122
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
722 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012
.AVIATION...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. WILL SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL JUST INCLUDE VCTS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES OF TIMING THUNDER AT ANY GIVEN SITE.
MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE ESPECIALLY IF RAIN OCCURS AT ANY
SITE. RIGHT NOW APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR FOG IS AT TRI. WILL INCLUDE
A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VIS AT TRI FOR THIS...OTHERWISE WILL HAVE VFR
FORECAST ALL SITES.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LW
000
FXUS64 KMEG 210905
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
405 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND COVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF WEST TENNESSEE. TEMPS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN. HOWEVER EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HEATING COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROF TO PRODUCE
SBCAPES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -4C TO
-6C ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH. WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO BE QUITE WEAK SO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK
UNLIKELY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT AND SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH
SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AT MANY PLACES.
TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF OVER EAST TENNESSEE ON
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A PERFECT DAY ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITIES. TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE APPALACHIANS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH. AS A RESULT EXPECT
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB EACH
DAY REACHING THE MID 90S BY THE WEEKEND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
START TO CREEP UP AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS MOVE INTO THE MID 60S.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
BACK EDGE OF BEST TS CHANCES APPEARED TO BE NEAR JBR AT 0415Z...
JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE OZARKS. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS HELPING TO OVERCOME A STABLE
SURFACE LAYER ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WHILE ACTING ON MODESTLY BUOYANT
ELEVATED LAYER FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
WHILE SOME BACKBUILDING/REGENERATION OF SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR
OVER EASTERN AR OVERNIGHT... THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR BEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. SOME
REGENERATION OF SURFACE BASED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TUP TOWARD
MIDDAY.
VFR AND NORTH WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MONDAY EVENING CARGO PUSH AT MEM.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 82 60 79 58 / 40 10 10 0
MKL 81 54 78 51 / 40 10 10 0
JBR 80 54 79 54 / 20 10 10 0
TUP 85 60 80 54 / 50 20 10 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 210821
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
321 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MASSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MS
TO CROSSVILLE THEN NORTH TO NEAR CINCINNATI CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SCT CONVECTION ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND APPROACHING FRONTAL BNDRY. POPS WILL BE IN THE 50%
RANGE WEST AND 60% EAST TODAY. UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS A DEG OR 2 DUE
TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST ACRS THE AREA TNGT INTO
TUESDAY ALLOWING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER IN
THE EAST. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE PERIOD. MAV TEMPS LOOK RSNBL TNGT AND TUESDAY.
OTHER THAN ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION LATER IN THE WEEK THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND INCREASINGLY HOT. LOW 90S
AWAY FROM THE PLATEAU WILL BE COMMONPLACE FRI-SUNDAY AND A FEW
SPOTS COULD GET EVEN HOTTER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 81 58 76 56 / 50 20 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 80 55 77 52 / 50 10 10 10
CROSSVILLE 78 58 74 53 / 60 40 30 10
COLUMBIA 82 58 77 55 / 50 20 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 83 58 77 53 / 60 30 10 10
WAVERLY 80 55 76 52 / 50 20 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
JOHNSTONE
000
FXUS64 KMRX 210734
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
330 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE PERIOD...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...WHILE FORCING NOT
EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE STILL SHOULD WARRANT LIKELY POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLATEAU TODAY WITH CHANCE
ELSEWHERE...THEN HIGH CHANCE ALL ZONES TONIGHT. MAV TEMPS CONTINUE
TO LOOK REASONABLE FOR HIGHS...SO WILL STAY CLOSE. MAV LOWS ALSO
LOOK DECENT BUT WILL MAKE SOME MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MOST
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
ALIGNED RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND MODELS STILL
INDICATE A NICE SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND
COLD AIR ALOFT TO CRANK UP THE INSTABILITY AS HEATING BUILDS DURING
THE DAY. STAYED WITH A GRADIENT OF HIGHEST POPS EAST THROUGH LOWER
POPS WEST FOR THE CONVECTIVE EVENT WITH SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF IN
PROBABILITY OVERNIGHT. APPARENTLY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN NO
HURRY TO ENTIRELY DEPART THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. IN FACT
MODELS SUGGEST A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW VERY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA
BORDER WITH A POCKET OF MOISTURE TO BOOT. THEREFORE HELD ONTO SOME
SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR A SHOWER AND A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AS WELL
AS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE GRADUALLY SLIPPING
FURTHER AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
MAJOR LEAGUE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS STEADILY NORTHEAST FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. BY SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE PARKED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE DROPPED POPS EVERYWHERE BUT THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
BORDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE
WARMING ALOFT SHUTS DOWN CONVECTION. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE WARMING
TREND SUGGESTED BY MOS WHICH ENDS UP WITH MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 62 80 59 84 / 50 40 20 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 61 78 57 82 / 50 50 30 10 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 84 61 78 57 82 / 50 50 40 10 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 56 76 54 79 / 40 50 50 30 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 210525
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
125 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012
.AVIATION...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. WILL SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL JUST INCLUDE VCTS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING THROUGH END OF PERIOD GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES OF TIMING
THUNDER AT ANY GIVEN SITE. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN
TOWARD MORNING...WITH BEST PROBABILITY AT CHA. WILL INCLUDE A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR VIS AT CHA FOR THIS...OTHERWISE WILL HAVE MVFR
FORECAST ALL SITES.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LW
000
FXUS64 KOHX 210446
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1146 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.UPDATE...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS BNA ATTM...WITH CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG/BEHIND BOUNDARY BETWEEN
BNA AND CKV. ADDED MENTION OF VCTS TO BNA THROUGH 10Z TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY. GUIDANCE VARIES ON SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE FOR
MONDAY BUT WILL LEAN TOWARDS NAM/WRF AND SHOW RENEWED DEVELOPMENT
AT CKV/BNA IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPO TSRA AT BNA IN THE
AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG AT CSV TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS UNTIL CIRRUS SHIELD FROM CONVECTION TO NORTHWEST IMPROVES
VIS...WITH VCSH LATE TONIGHT AND VCTS/TEMPO TSRA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH GENERALLY
NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
UPDATE...
00Z OHX RAOB SHOWING CAPPING INVERSION BASED AROUND 575 MILLIBARS
WITH DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING
MID LEVEL DRY LAYER EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE. BELIEVE
CAP ALONG WITH DRIER AIR HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
IN MID STATE. ALSO NOTICED EARLIER WHEN OUTFLOWS MOVED THROUGH
AREAS WHERE CELLS EXISTED THEY DIDNT FIRE UP LIKE YESTERDAY AND
THE DAY BEFORE. ALSO THERES A SMALLER CAP AROUND 750 MILLIBARS.
HAVE LOOKED AT ALL THE SHORT RANGE MODELS AND BELIEVE THE NAM MAY
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PRECIP FIELDS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS SO MADE SOME TWEAKS TO CURRENT POPS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
AT 00Z THIS EVENING THE SURFACE FRONT IS BACK ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN THE LATE
NIGHT THEN PUSH EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. SOMEWHAT BROAD
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO WORK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
ACTUALLY DEEPENS BY A DECAMETER OR TWO SO POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
UPDATE...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA HAS DISSIPATED ATTM PER
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
MID STATE...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE A RUN AT CKV AND
POSSIBLY BNA TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AT CSV
OVERNIGHT...BUT INCOMING CIRRUS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FORMATION AT
CKV. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY PER LATEST
GUIDANCE...AND WILL MENTION VCTS AT ALL AIRPORTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS ON MONDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...AFTN TSTMS ARE CRANKING UP. NO SHEAR TO SPEAK OF BUT
PLENTY OF THERMAL INSTABILITY. A FEW SMALL HAILERS WITH GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT REACHING A INDIANAPOLIS IN...PADUCAH KY...PINE BLUFF AR
LINE BY EARLY MORNING. SOME INDICATIONS OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. HYDRO EXPERTS PEG THE 24 HR
PRECIP TOTALS ENDING TUE AM AT AROUND .25 TO .50 INCHES. MODELS
ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. NO OUTLOOK FOR SVR TSTMS FROM SPC...BUT
THERE`S ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SVR WITH A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS PUSH THE POST- FRONTAL PRECIP OUT OF THE
PLATEAU ON TUE...ALTHOUGH THE ECM IS A BIT SLOW THAN THE GFS.
I`VE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY. AS USUAL...AFTER
DAY 5 THE ECM AND GFS HAVE MAJOR DISAGREEMENTS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE DRIER ECM FOR NOW.
WELL...THE HEAT CONTINUES. ABOVE NORMAL STARTING WITH NOV OF LAST
YEAR. MAY IS HOLDING THE COURSE. THE 1ST 19 DAYS OF MAY RANK
NUMBER 11 IN THE ALL TIME HIT LIST FOR HIGHEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE.
AND...EXTENDED GUIDANCE FROM CPC HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BEING
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
000
FXUS64 KMEG 210423 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1123 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOWLY
DECREASING IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES OR SO. COLD FRONT
IS PUSHING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL SEND AN UPDATE TO FORECAST TO REMOVE
EVENING WORDING BUT NO BIG CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
ARS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A SURFACE
LOW ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT ARE AROUND 90 DEGREES AT
MOST LOCATIONS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE
SHORT TERM AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HOT TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK ARE THE PREDOMINANT CONCERNS IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CONFINED THIS AFTERNOON
THUS FAR TO AREAS IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA WHERE MOISTURE
HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT BETTER. WITH VERY LITTLE SHEAR ALOFT THIS PULSE
TYPE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED. THUS...THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
MUCH.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER ARKANSAS
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA THIS
EVENING...SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI
BY MONDAY EVENING. OVERALL SHEAR WITH THIS COLD FRONT REMAINS
VERY WEAK AT BEST /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BELOW 15 KTS/ AND NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
THREAT WITH THE ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT...UNLESS A COLD POOL IS ABLE TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND MOVE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD. NONETHELESS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE
TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
12Z LONG TERM GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN
FREE WEATHER AND VERY HOT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 90S...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
BACK EDGE OF BEST TS CHANCES APPEARED TO BE NEAR JBR AT 0415Z...
JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE OZARKS. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS HELPING TO OVERCOME A STABLE
SURFACE LAYER ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WHILE ACTING ON MODESTLY BUOYANT
ELEVATED LAYER FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
WHILE SOME BACKBUILDING/REGENERATION OF SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR
OVER EASTERN AR OVERNIGHT... THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR BEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. SOME
REGENERATION OF SURFACE BASED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TUP TOWARD
MIDDAY.
VFR AND NORTH WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MONDAY EVENING CARGO PUSH AT MEM.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 68 83 60 81 / 40 40 10 10
MKL 63 81 54 79 / 40 40 10 10
JBR 64 80 55 81 / 50 30 10 0
TUP 63 86 58 81 / 20 40 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 210147
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
847 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOWLY
DECREASING IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES OR SO. COLD FRONT
IS PUSHING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL SEND AN UPDATE TO FORECAST TO REMOVE
EVENING WORDING BUT NO BIG CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
ARS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A SURFACE
LOW ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT ARE AROUND 90 DEGREES AT
MOST LOCATIONS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE
SHORT TERM AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HOT TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK ARE THE PREDOMINANT CONCERNS IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CONFINED THIS AFTERNOON
THUS FAR TO AREAS IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA WHERE MOISTURE
HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT BETTER. WITH VERY LITTLE SHEAR ALOFT THIS PULSE
TYPE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED. THUS...THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
MUCH.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER ARKANSAS
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA THIS
EVENING...SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI
BY MONDAY EVENING. OVERALL SHEAR WITH THIS COLD FRONT REMAINS
VERY WEAK AT BEST /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BELOW 15 KTS/ AND NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
THREAT WITH THE ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT...UNLESS A COLD POOL IS ABLE TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND MOVE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD. NONETHELESS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE
TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
12Z LONG TERM GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN
FREE WEATHER AND VERY HOT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 90S...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
CJC
AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AFTER 02Z...WITH
THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TS CONFIDENCE BEYOND 02Z IS LOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOT CLEAR IF
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO
OVERCOME A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE CAP. UPSTREAM TS
OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WAS LIMITED IN COVERAGE...WITH THE AID OF
DAYTIME HEATING. 18Z NAM MODEL KEEPS MEM AND JBR DRY THROUGH
APPROX 09Z.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND... HAVE HELD TO A VCTS FOR THE LATE EVENING
HOURS... TO ACCOUNT FOR ELEVATE STORMS FORMING ABOVE THE MORE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TOWARD 12Z...
AND MAY SEE SOME SHRA MINUS TS.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 68 83 60 81 / 40 40 10 10
MKL 63 81 54 79 / 40 40 10 10
JBR 64 80 55 81 / 50 30 10 0
TUP 63 86 58 81 / 20 40 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 210136
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
936 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...RADAR INDICATING ACTIVITY HAS ENDED SO WILL UPDATE
FORECAST TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING. IT SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING...NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...
THE PERSISTENT SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO CHANGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL GET PINCHED OFF BETWEEN THE COASTAL
LOW AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS
AND A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING RISING
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE PLATEAU BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AS LIFT IS GENERALLY WEAK. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN
AREAS AND THE PLATEAU. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT HIGH
TEMPS TOMORROW TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN MOST SPOTS.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES SE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIDES SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF
BY TUE AFTN. TEMPERATURES INSIDE OF CLIMO DUE TO CLOUD COVER. CUT
OFF LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SW. A GOOD WARMING TREND SETS UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 61 82 61 79 57 / 20 60 30 50 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 81 60 78 56 / 10 50 50 60 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 61 79 60 78 56 / 10 60 30 70 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 81 57 76 52 / 10 40 40 70 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
GH/DGS/SON
000
FXUS64 KOHX 210118
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
818 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.UPDATE...
00Z OHX RAOB SHOWING CAPPING INVERSION BASED AROUND 575 MILLIBARS
WITH DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING
MID LEVEL DRY LAYER EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE. BELIEVE
CAP ALONG WITH DRIER AIR HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
IN MID STATE. ALSO NOTICED EARLIER WHEN OUTFLOWS MOVED THROUGH
AREAS WHERE CELLS EXISTED THEY DIDNT FIRE UP LIKE YESTERDAY AND
THE DAY BEFORE. ALSO THERES A SMALLER CAP AROUND 750 MILLIBARS.
HAVE LOOKED AT ALL THE SHORT RANGE MODELS AND BELIEVE THE NAM MAY
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PRECIP FIELDS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS SO MADE SOME TWEAKS TO CURRENT POPS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
AT 00Z THIS EVENING THE SURFACE FRONT IS BACK ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN THE LATE
NIGHT THEN PUSH EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. SOMEWHAT BROAD
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO WORK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
ACTUALLY DEEPENS BY A DECAMETER OR TWO SO POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
UPDATE...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA HAS DISSIPATED ATTM PER
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
MID STATE...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE A RUN AT CKV AND
POSSIBLY BNA TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AT CSV
OVERNIGHT...BUT INCOMING CIRRUS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FORMATION AT
CKV. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY PER LATEST
GUIDANCE...AND WILL MENTION VCTS AT ALL AIRPORTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS ON MONDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...AFTN TSTMS ARE CRANKING UP. NO SHEAR TO SPEAK OF BUT
PLENTY OF THERMAL INSTABILITY. A FEW SMALL HAILERS WITH GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT REACHING A INDIANAPOLIS IN...PADUCAH KY...PINE BLUFF AR
LINE BY EARLY MORNING. SOME INDICATIONS OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. HYDRO EXPERTS PEG THE 24 HR
PRECIP TOTALS ENDING TUE AM AT AROUND .25 TO .50 INCHES. MODELS
ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. NO OUTLOOK FOR SVR TSTMS FROM SPC...BUT
THERE`S ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SVR WITH A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS PUSH THE POST- FRONTAL PRECIP OUT OF THE
PLATEAU ON TUE...ALTHOUGH THE ECM IS A BIT SLOW THAN THE GFS.
I`VE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY. AS USUAL...AFTER
DAY 5 THE ECM AND GFS HAVE MAJOR DISAGREEMENTS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE DRIER ECM FOR NOW.
WELL...THE HEAT CONTINUES. ABOVE NORMAL STARTING WITH NOV OF LAST
YEAR. MAY IS HOLDING THE COURSE. THE 1ST 19 DAYS OF MAY RANK
NUMBER 11 IN THE ALL TIME HIT LIST FOR HIGHEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE.
AND...EXTENDED GUIDANCE FROM CPC HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BEING
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KOHX 210002
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
702 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.UPDATE...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA HAS DISSIPATED ATTM PER
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
MID STATE...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE A RUN AT CKV AND
POSSIBLY BNA TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AT CSV
OVERNIGHT...BUT INCOMING CIRRUS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FORMATION AT
CKV. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY PER LATEST
GUIDANCE...AND WILL MENTION VCTS AT ALL AIRPORTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS ON MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...AFTN TSTMS ARE CRANKING UP. NO SHEAR TO SPEAK OF BUT
PLENTY OF THERMAL INSTABILITY. A FEW SMALL HAILERS WITH GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT REACHING A INDIANAPOLIS IN...PADUCAH KY...PINE BLUFF AR
LINE BY EARLY MORNING. SOME INDICATIONS OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. HYDRO EXPERTS PEG THE 24 HR
PRECIP TOTALS ENDING TUE AM AT AROUND .25 TO .50 INCHES. MODELS
ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. NO OUTLOOK FOR SVR TSTMS FROM SPC...BUT
THERE`S ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SVR WITH A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS PUSH THE POST- FRONTAL PRECIP OUT OF THE
PLATEAU ON TUE...ALTHOUGH THE ECM IS A BIT SLOW THAN THE GFS.
I`VE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY. AS USUAL...AFTER
DAY 5 THE ECM AND GFS HAVE MAJOR DISAGREEMENTS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE DRIER ECM FOR NOW.
WELL...THE HEAT CONTINUES. ABOVE NORMAL STARTING WITH NOV OF LAST
YEAR. MAY IS HOLDING THE COURSE. THE 1ST 19 DAYS OF MAY RANK
NUMBER 11 IN THE ALL TIME HIT LIST FOR HIGHEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE.
AND...EXTENDED GUIDANCE FROM CPC HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BEING
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
000
FXUS64 KMEG 202351 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
651 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A SURFACE
LOW ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT ARE AROUND 90 DEGREES AT
MOST LOCATIONS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE
SHORT TERM AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HOT TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK ARE THE PREDOMINANT CONCERNS IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CONFINED THIS AFTERNOON
THUS FAR TO AREAS IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA WHERE MOISTURE
HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT BETTER. WITH VERY LITTLE SHEAR ALOFT THIS PULSE
TYPE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED. THUS...THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
MUCH.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER ARKANSAS
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA THIS
EVENING...SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI
BY MONDAY EVENING. OVERALL SHEAR WITH THIS COLD FRONT REMAINS
VERY WEAK AT BEST /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BELOW 15 KTS/ AND NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
THREAT WITH THE ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT...UNLESS A COLD POOL IS ABLE TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND MOVE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD. NONETHELESS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE
TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
12Z LONG TERM GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN
FREE WEATHER AND VERY HOT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 90S...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AFTER 02Z...WITH
THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TS CONFIDENCE BEYOND 02Z IS LOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOT CLEAR IF
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO
OVERCOME A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE CAP. UPSTREAM TS
OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WAS LIMITED IN COVERAGE...WITH THE AID OF
DAYTIME HEATING. 18Z NAM MODEL KEEPS MEM AND JBR DRY THROUGH
APPROX 09Z.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND... HAVE HELD TO A VCTS FOR THE LATE EVENING
HOURS... TO ACCOUNT FOR ELEVATE STORMS FORMING ABOVE THE MORE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TOWARD 12Z...
AND MAY SEE SOME SHRA MINUS TS.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 68 83 60 81 / 40 40 10 10
MKL 63 81 54 79 / 40 40 10 10
JBR 64 80 55 81 / 50 30 10 0
TUP 63 86 58 81 / 20 40 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 202340
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
740 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN. WILL ADD VCSH AT ALL SITES...BUT KEEP IT VFR. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
GH
000
FXUS64 KMEG 202051
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
351 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A SURFACE
LOW ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT ARE AROUND 90 DEGREES AT
MOST LOCATIONS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE
SHORT TERM AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HOT TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK ARE THE PREDOMINANT CONCERNS IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CONFINED THIS AFTERNOON
THUS FAR TO AREAS IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA WHERE MOISTURE
HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT BETTER. WITH VERY LITTLE SHEAR ALOFT THIS PULSE
TYPE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED. THUS...THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
MUCH.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER ARKANSAS
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA THIS
EVENING...SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI
BY MONDAY EVENING. OVERALL SHEAR WITH THIS COLD FRONT REMAINS
VERY WEAK AT BEST /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BELOW 15 KTS/ AND NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
THREAT WITH THE ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT...UNLESS A COLD POOL IS ABLE TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND MOVE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD. NONETHELESS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE
TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
12Z LONG TERM GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN
FREE WEATHER AND VERY HOT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 90S...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID SOUTH. DEEPER
MOISTURE NOTED FROM THE GOES SATELLITE SOUNDER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WEAK CAPPING...STRONG HEATING...AND
INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KMEM AND KJBR THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND MAY HELP TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE MID
SOUTH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KJBR (02-05Z)...KMEM (03-06Z)...AND KMKL
(04-07Z)...ALTHOUGH STILL THINK ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN LOOSELY ORGANIZED. CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN PREFERRED
REGARDING TEMPO CONDITIONS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
LATER TONIGHT AND MAINTAINED VCTS.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KTUP WITH EVEN HIGHER CHANCES ANTICIPATED BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD END FURTHER NORTH AT KJBR...KMKL BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY
MORNING AT NORTHERN TAF SITES.
JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 68 83 60 81 / 40 40 10 10
MKL 63 81 54 79 / 40 40 10 10
JBR 64 80 55 81 / 50 30 10 0
TUP 63 86 58 81 / 20 40 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 201945
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
245 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...AFTN TSTMS ARE CRANKING UP. NO SHEAR TO SPEAK OF BUT
PLENTY OF THERMAL INSTABILITY. A FEW SMALL HAILERS WITH GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT REACHING A INDIANAPOLIS IN...PADUCAH KY...PINE BLUFF AR
LINE BY EARLY MORNING. SOME INDICATIONS OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. HYDRO EXPERTS PEG THE 24 HR
PRECIP TOTALS ENDING TUE AM AT AROUND .25 TO .50 INCHES. MODELS
ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. NO OUTLOOK FOR SVR TSTMS FROM SPC...BUT
THERE`S ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SVR WITH A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS PUSH THE POST- FRONTAL PRECIP OUT OF THE
PLATEAU ON TUE...ALTHOUGH THE ECM IS A BIT SLOW THAN THE GFS.
I`VE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY. AS USUAL...AFTER
DAY 5 THE ECM AND GFS HAVE MAJOR DISAGREEMENTS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE DRIER ECM FOR NOW.
WELL...THE HEAT CONTINUES. ABOVE NORMAL STARTING WITH NOV OF LAST
YEAR. MAY IS HOLDING THE COURSE. THE 1ST 19 DAYS OF MAY RANK
NUMBER 11 IN THE ALL TIME HIT LIST FOR HIGHEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE.
AND...EXTENDED GUIDANCE FROM CPC HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BEING
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 65 80 57 76 / 30 60 20 10
CLARKSVILLE 64 79 54 77 / 50 60 10 10
CROSSVILLE 58 77 57 74 / 20 60 40 30
COLUMBIA 64 81 57 77 / 30 60 20 10
LAWRENCEBURG 62 82 57 77 / 30 60 30 10
WAVERLY 64 79 54 76 / 50 60 20 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
JLM
000
FXUS64 KMRX 201840
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
224 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...
THE PERSISTENT SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO CHANGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL GET PINCHED OFF BETWEEN THE COASTAL
LOW AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS
AND A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING RISING
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE PLATEAU BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AS LIFT IS GENERALLY WEAK. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN
AREAS AND THE PLATEAU. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT HIGH
TEMPS TOMORROW TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN MOST SPOTS.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES SE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIDES SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF
BY TUE AFTN. TEMPERATURES INSIDE OF CLIMO DUE TO CLOUD COVER. CUT
OFF LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SW. A GOOD WARMING TREND SETS UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 61 82 61 79 57 / 20 60 30 50 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 81 60 78 56 / 10 50 50 60 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 61 79 60 78 56 / 10 60 30 70 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 81 57 76 52 / 10 40 40 70 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS/SON
000
FXUS64 KMEG 201746
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1246 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
WISCONSIN WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AS OF 10 AM
CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS SHOWN SOME
ALTO-CUMULUS CLOUDS LOCATED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA
AROUND MEMPHIS.
LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-40 TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING.
MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS FROM OHX/LZK BASED ON A (89-91/58) PARCEL
YIELDS SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG...LI/S
BETWEEN -6 TO -8...AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT. THUS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO MOVE MUCH AT ALL. A
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE FROM MICROBURSTS. THUS...WILL MENTION
THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THINK ISOLATED POPS
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI ARE JUSTIFIED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA
BY TONIGHT. WILL RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND ADJUST POPS
BASED ON THESE TRENDS.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH SOME
CIRRUS BLOW OFF MOVING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS FROM CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S WITH MEMPHIS
SITTING AT 71 AT 08Z. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S
WITH CALM/LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK
DOWN TODAY BUT NOT BEFORE MOST PLACES EXPERIENCE ANOTHER NICE LATE
SPRING DAY. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING
NEAR 90. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK COLD FRONT AND TRAILING MID
LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE AIRMASS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL DESTABILIZE WITH SBCAPES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG
AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -6C. THE 00Z NAM DEVELOPS
CONVECTION ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCES A
COLD POOL WHICH PUSHES CONVECTION TO THE EAST MORE RAPIDLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THAN EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF. DECIDED
TO INCREASE POPS SOME THIS EVENING TO COVER THIS SCENARIO. THOUGH
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS UNLIKELY...VERY WEAK WINDS
ALOFT...WILL ADD THE MENTION OF A FEW STRONG STORMS TO THE HWO
TONIGHT SINCE THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUSTY WINDS WOULD
BE A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI. MONDAY LOOKS A LITTLE TRICKY. THE SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. SOME POST
FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...
AS SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH
DESTABILIZES THE AIRMASS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF I-40.
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-40 MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MID 80S ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. SOME CLEARING WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH HALF MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. KEPT
SOME LINGERING POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MONDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AREA WIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A CLOSE TO A PERFECT DAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPS...AROUND 80. THE HIGH WILL START TO MOVE EAST BUT NOT BEFORE
ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GET READY FOR SOME BUILDING HEAT.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUILDING A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
WEST COAST TROF. AS A RESULT EXPECT HEAT TO QUICKLY BUILD BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND.
THE HUMIDITY LEVEL SHOULD CREEP UP AS WELL UNDER THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID SOUTH. DEEPER
MOISTURE NOTED FROM THE GOES SATELLITE SOUNDER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WEAK CAPPING...STRONG HEATING...AND
INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KMEM AND KJBR THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND MAY HELP TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE MID
SOUTH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KJBR (02-05Z)...KMEM (03-06Z)...AND KMKL
(04-07Z)...ALTHOUGH STILL THINK ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN LOOSELY ORGANIZED. CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN PREFERRED
REGARDING TEMPO CONDITIONS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
LATER TONIGHT AND MAINTAINED VCTS.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KTUP WITH EVEN HIGHER CHANCES ANTICIPATED BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD END FURTHER NORTH AT KJBR...KMKL BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY
MORNING AT NORTHERN TAF SITES.
JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 68 83 60 81 / 40 40 10 10
MKL 64 81 52 78 / 40 40 10 10
JBR 64 79 55 81 / 50 20 10 10
TUP 64 85 59 81 / 20 40 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 201716
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1216 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN MIDDLE TN.
THUS...TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE
PLATEAU OR...CSV VCNTY. THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN EARLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...AN EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BERING RETURNING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS WE MOVE TOWARD 12Z LATE TONIGHT.
TOVER VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE OR CLOSE TO ZERO THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE VSBYS OF AS LOW AS 3-5SM AT
TIMES...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
UPDATE...MORNING SOUNDING IS VIRTUALLY THE SAME AS YESTERDAY...
BUT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE COLUMN MOISTURE. LOCAL WRF MODEL AGAIN
SHOWS CONVECTION KICKING OFF IN THE PLATEAU COUNTIES AND SPREADING
WWD IN TIME. STORM MOVEMENT STARTS OUT AS SSW AND TURNS TO SOUTH.
AND LIKE YESTERDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN.
LACK OF ANY 0-3 KM SHEAR BUT GOOD THERMAL INSTABILITY WILL MEAN
SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT PULSE TO NEAR SEVERE AND THEN DIE OUT.
THUS...WE MAY HAVE A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS THAT EXHIBIT MARBLE
SIZE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
WRF ALSO SHOWS THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. AT 7 AM TOMORROW...THE LOCAL WRF SHOWS THE
FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM LOUISVILLE KY TO CLARKSVILLE TN TO PINE
BLUFF AR. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES ATTM.
JLM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...PATCHY MVFR BR WILL LIFT BY 14Z. TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH SCT CU BLOSSOMING TO ISOLD TSRA BETWEEN 18Z-21Z.
COVERAGE WILL BE 10-20 PERCENT...SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH LOCALIZED
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TSRA WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET AROUND 01Z.
AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING NEW SCT TSRA TOWARD 21/12Z FOR
KCKV AND KBNA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YDAY EXPECTED TODAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS YDAY BUT STILL COULD
HAVE A STORM OR TWO PULSE SEVERE. BEST TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER
THE PLATEAU.
FRONTAL BNDRY WILL APPROACH TNGT THEN SWING THROUGH THE MID STATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND GIVEN FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES AND A DECENT
DIURNAL TIMING OF THE FRONT HAVE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR MOST OF
THE MID-STATE ON MONDAY. UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS A LITTLE ON MONDAY
WITH A FAIR AMNT OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.
A COUPLE PRETTY NICE DAYS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL AND LOW HUMIDITY. AFTER
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MID-SUMMER HEAT IN MAY AS VERY
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST BY ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. OTHER
THAN ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION RAIN CHANCES LOOK VERY SLIM IN
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FCST.
TOMSTONE
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
000
FXUS64 KMRX 201700 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
100 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
AT THIS TIME TO MENTION. SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOST LIKELY
STAY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. CLOUDS
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY AFTER 18Z.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
000
FXUS64 KMEG 201605
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1105 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
WISCONSIN WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AS OF 10 AM
CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS SHOWN SOME
ALTO-CUMULUS CLOUDS LOCATED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA
AROUND MEMPHIS.
LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-40 TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING.
MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS FROM OHX/LZK BASED ON A (89-91/58) PARCEL
YIELDS SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG...LI/S
BETWEEN -6 TO -8...AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT. THUS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO MOVE MUCH AT ALL. A
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE FROM MICROBURSTS. THUS...WILL MENTION
THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THINK ISOLATED POPS
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI ARE JUSTIFIED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA
BY TONIGHT. WILL RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND ADJUST POPS
BASED ON THESE TRENDS.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH SOME
CIRRUS BLOW OFF MOVING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS FROM CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S WITH MEMPHIS
SITTING AT 71 AT 08Z. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S
WITH CALM/LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK
DOWN TODAY BUT NOT BEFORE MOST PLACES EXPERIENCE ANOTHER NICE LATE
SPRING DAY. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING
NEAR 90. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK COLD FRONT AND TRAILING MID
LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE AIRMASS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL DESTABILIZE WITH SBCAPES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG
AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -6C. THE 00Z NAM DEVELOPS
CONVECTION ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCES A
COLD POOL WHICH PUSHES CONVECTION TO THE EAST MORE RAPIDLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THAN EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF. DECIDED
TO INCREASE POPS SOME THIS EVENING TO COVER THIS SCENARIO. THOUGH
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS UNLIKELY...VERY WEAK WINDS
ALOFT...WILL ADD THE MENTION OF A FEW STRONG STORMS TO THE HWO
TONIGHT SINCE THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUSTY WINDS WOULD
BE A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI. MONDAY LOOKS A LITTLE TRICKY. THE SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. SOME POST
FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...
AS SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH
DESTABILIZES THE AIRMASS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF I-40.
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-40 MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MID 80S ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. SOME CLEARING WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH HALF MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. KEPT
SOME LINGERING POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MONDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AREA WIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A CLOSE TO A PERFECT DAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPS...AROUND 80. THE HIGH WILL START TO MOVE EAST BUT NOT BEFORE
ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GET READY FOR SOME BUILDING HEAT.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUILDING A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
WEST COAST TROF. AS A RESULT EXPECT HEAT TO QUICKLY BUILD BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND.
THE HUMIDITY LEVEL SHOULD CREEP UP AS WELL UNDER THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
MVFR FOG AT MKL THIS MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY 1400Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BEGIN AFFECTING JBR
BY 21/00Z. MEM AND MKL WILL SEE ACTIVITY A FEW HOURS LATER...WITH A
MODERATE CHANCE THAT WINDS IN AND NEAR STORMS WILL GUST TO 30 KTS.
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT
VCTS WITH ON STATION SHOWERS FOR TUP. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR TUP SO HAVE PLACED
VCSH IN AT THAT TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...VEERING MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
JAB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 91 68 83 60 / 10 40 40 10
MKL 89 64 81 52 / 10 40 40 10
JBR 89 64 79 55 / 20 50 20 10
TUP 89 64 85 59 / 10 20 40 20
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 201502
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1002 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.UPDATE...MORNING SOUNDING IS VIRTUALLY THE SAME AS YESTERDAY...
BUT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE COLUMN MOISTURE. LOCAL WRF MODEL AGAIN
SHOWS CONVECTION KICKING OFF IN THE PLATEAU COUNTIES AND SPREADING
WWD IN TIME. STORM MOVEMENT STARTS OUT AS SSW AND TURNS TO SOUTH.
AND LIKE YESTERDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN.
LACK OF ANY 0-3 KM SHEAR BUT GOOD THERMAL INSTABILITY WILL MEAN
SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT PULSE TO NEAR SEVERE AND THEN DIE OUT.
THUS...WE MAY HAVE A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS THAT EXHIBIT MARBLE
SIZE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
WRF ALSO SHOWS THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. AT 7 AM TOMORROW...THE LOCAL WRF SHOWS THE
FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM LOUISVILLE KY TO CLARKSVILLE TN TO PINE
BLUFF AR. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES ATTM.
JLM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...PATCHY MVFR BR WILL LIFT BY 14Z. TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH SCT CU BLOSSOMING TO ISOLD TSRA BETWEEN 18Z-21Z.
COVERAGE WILL BE 10-20 PERCENT...SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH LOCALIZED
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TSRA WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET AROUND 01Z.
AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING NEW SCT TSRA TOWARD 21/12Z FOR
KCKV AND KBNA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YDAY EXPECTED TODAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS YDAY BUT STILL COULD
HAVE A STORM OR TWO PULSE SEVERE. BEST TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER
THE PLATEAU.
FRONTAL BNDRY WILL APPROACH TNGT THEN SWING THROUGH THE MID STATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND GIVEN FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES AND A DECENT
DIURNAL TIMING OF THE FRONT HAVE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR MOST OF
THE MID-STATE ON MONDAY. UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS A LITTLE ON MONDAY
WITH A FAIR AMNT OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.
A COUPLE PRETTY NICE DAYS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL AND LOW HUMIDITY. AFTER
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MID-SUMMER HEAT IN MAY AS VERY
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST BY ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. OTHER
THAN ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION RAIN CHANCES LOOK VERY SLIM IN
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FCST.
TOMSTONE
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
18
000
FXUS64 KMRX 201429 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1029 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS AT TRI AND VJI IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW SOME CIN REMAINING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW THERE.
THE PLATEAU AND SOTUHERN AREAS WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER. WILL UPDATE
TO ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR HIGHS SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY...IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
000
FXUS64 KMRX 201130
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
730 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN DURING THE
PERIOD. AGAIN MAY BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AROUND THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN SITE
RATHER LOW SO NO MENTION IN TAFS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG
FORMATION LATE BUT CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL OCCUR AT ANY GIVEN SITE
LOW...SO WILL KEEP TAFS VFR FOR NOW.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LW
000
FXUS64 KOHX 200839
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
339 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YDAY EXPECTED TODAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS YDAY BUT STILL COULD
HAVE A STORM OR TWO PULSE SEVERE. BEST TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER
THE PLATEAU.
FRONTAL BNDRY WILL APPROACH TNGT THEN SWING THROUGH THE MID STATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND GIVEN FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES AND A DECENT
DIURNAL TIMING OF THE FRONT HAVE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR MOST OF
THE MID-STATE ON MONDAY. UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS A LITTLE ON MONDAY
WITH A FAIR AMNT OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.
A COUPLE PRETTY NICE DAYS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL AND LOW HUMIDITY. AFTER
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MID-SUMMER HEAT IN MAY AS VERY
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST BY ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. OTHER
THAN ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION RAIN CHANCES LOOK VERY SLIM IN
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FCST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 88 64 83 60 / 20 20 60 40
CLARKSVILLE 88 61 82 57 / 20 30 60 20
CROSSVILLE 82 58 79 58 / 30 20 60 40
COLUMBIA 88 64 84 61 / 20 20 60 40
LAWRENCEBURG 88 63 84 61 / 20 20 50 30
WAVERLY 88 63 83 58 / 20 30 60 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
JOHNSTONE
000
FXUS64 KMEG 200832
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
332 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH SOME
CIRRUS BLOW OFF MOVING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS FROM CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S WITH MEMPHIS
SITTING AT 71 AT 08Z. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S
WITH CALM/LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK
DOWN TODAY BUT NOT BEFORE MOST PLACES EXPERIENCE ANOTHER NICE LATE
SPRING DAY. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING
NEAR 90. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK COLD FRONT AND TRAILING MID
LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE AIRMASS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL DESTABILIZE WITH SBCAPES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG
AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -6C. THE 00Z NAM DEVELOPS
CONVECTION ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCES A
COLD POOL WHICH PUSHES CONVECTION TO THE EAST MORE RAPIDLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THAN EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF. DECIDED
TO INCREASE POPS SOME THIS EVENING TO COVER THIS SCENARIO. THOUGH
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS UNLIKELY...VERY WEAK WINDS
ALOFT...WILL ADD THE MENTION OF A FEW STRONG STORMS TO THE HWO
TONIGHT SINCE THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUSTY WINDS WOULD
BE A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI. MONDAY LOOKS A LITTLE TRICKY. THE SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. SOME POST
FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...
AS SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH
DESTABILIZES THE AIRMASS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF I-40.
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-40 MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MID 80S ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. SOME CLEARING WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH HALF MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. KEPT
SOME LINGERING POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MONDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AREA WIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A CLOSE TO A PERFECT DAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPS...AROUND 80. THE HIGH WILL START TO MOVE EAST BUT NOT BEFORE
ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GET READY FOR SOME BUILDING HEAT.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUILDING A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
WEST COAST TROF. AS A RESULT EXPECT HEAT TO QUICKLY BUILD BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND.
THE HUMIDITY LEVEL SHOULD CREEP UP AS WELL UNDER THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STILL APPEARS SCATTERED TSRA WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN AR DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY... PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST INTO
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. CONVECTIVE CAP STRENGTHENS AFTER 00Z... BUT
THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SUFFICIENT FRONTAL FORCING AND MIDLEVEL
SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN STORMS EAST OF THE MS RIVER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS SUNDAY.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 91 68 83 60 / 10 40 40 10
MKL 89 64 81 52 / 10 40 40 10
JBR 89 64 79 55 / 20 50 20 10
TUP 89 64 85 59 / 10 20 40 20
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 200644
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
244 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL
WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD...BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM SO FAIRLY PERSISTENT FORECAST. WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL BUT SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA WHERE
WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE INTO
THIS EVENING ALL ZONES. MAV TEMPS HAVE BEEN VERY GOOD RECENTLY FOR
HIGHS SO WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR TODAY...BUT WILL GO ABOVE MOST MAV
TEMPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...H5 TROF MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF TROF EXIT...WITH
ECMWF KEEPING A CUTOFF LOW OVER OUR REGION THROUGH WED NGT...THE GFS
AND NAM ARE ABOUT A DAY EARLIER. EVEN SO...AFTER THE EARLY WEEK RAIN
CHANCES...ALL MODELS BUILD IN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK...AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. AS STATED
ALREADY...THE GFS IS QUICKEST WITH TROF EXIT AND RIDGE BUILDING.
WILL FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION AND CUT BACK ON MOS TEMPS A TAD. EXPECT
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN TSTMS WITH THE HEAT LATE WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE DRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 86 61 86 61 81 / 20 20 30 30 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 85 59 84 60 80 / 20 20 30 40 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 86 59 84 60 80 / 20 20 40 40 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 82 52 83 57 78 / 20 20 30 40 50
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LW/GC
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