000
FXUS64 KMAF 240534
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1234 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MCS IS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
STABILIZING IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO COOL. RADAR IS INDC ISOLATED -SHRA AT BEST...SO WILL
NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS. HAVE TAKEN OUT THE PROB30 IN THE TAFS FOR
FRIDAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEEPEST GULF MOISTURE WILL BE BLOCKED
BY THE COLD POOL FROM THIS AFTN/EVENINGS MCS FROM MOVING INTO THE
CWA...THEREFORE ANY CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AFTN LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

33

000
FXUS64 KBRO 240533 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1233 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TAF
PACKAGE REGARDING WIND STRENGTH AND TIMING. OVERALL...MVFR WITH
TEMPO IFR CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT LEVELS. FULL VFR
WILL RESUME ON FRIDAY WITH RISING CEILINGS AND BREEZY SURFACE
WINDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS WANING AT THIS MOMENT AND HIGH
CIRRUS FROM TSTORMS TO THE WEST IS BEGINNING TO WORK INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND WORK BACK INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING. CIG HEIGHTS AROUND 1500 FEET
EXPECTED WITH BRIEF BOUTS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING HAS QUICKLY BUILT NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY...HOLDING IN PLACE THE DRY AIR ABOVE 5000 FEET. BELOW
THIS...SFC HIGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE LONG SE TAP FROM THE GULF...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S AND DRAWING MORE SMOKE FROM THE SOUTH INTO TEXAS. DAYTIME
HEATING HAS BROUGHT THICKER DAYTIME CU FIELD...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
THIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...THE CLOUD DECK WILL RETURN
AND LOWER TO 1500 FEET. ALL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A WEAK
VORT RACING NWWD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE BIG BEND REGION
INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WILL BE DOMINATED TOO MUCH BY THE RIDGE...BUT THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM ON THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN
MEXICO WILL CLIP THE EDGES OF ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES...MAINLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. FEEL THAT THIS THREAT IS MINIMAL...SO HAVE KEPT ONLY
10 PERCENT CHANCES FOR THOSE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALSO ADDED 10
CHANCE FOR CAMERON COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY MAY HELP
SPARK A STREAMER SHOWER OR TWO LATER OVERNIGHT. /64/

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE BIG BEND TO THE
ARKLATEX SATURDAY.  WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...THIS FEATURE
COULD GENERATE A BIT OF CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR AREA.  THE BIG
QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND WHETHER ANY PRECIPITATION COULD WANDER INTO
NORTHERN/WESTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ON THE HIGH END OF NORMAL FOR LATE
MAY/EARLY JUNE...WITH FORECAST VALUES HOVERING AROND THE 1.5 INCH
MARK.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAY INDICATE A BIT OF INSTABILITY...BUT
THEY ALSO SHOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PRESENT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.  BY THE TIME THE INVERSION WEAKENS...I FEEL THE /WEAKENING/
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON
OUR WEATHER LOCALLY.

EVEN WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY TO SEE A BIT OF CONVECTION WANDER SOUTHWARD TOWARD
NORTHERN PARTS OF ZAPATA OR JIM HOGG COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS
CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED OVER THE COASTAL AREAS.  GIVEN MY CONFIDENCE IN
ALL OF THIS HAPPENING...I HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW-GRADE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO THESE AREAS.  RIGHT NOW...I WILL KEEP
THE ODDS OF SEEING SHOWERS UNDER 15 PERCENT.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  WHEN THIS OCCURS...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS.  THIS MAY
ALLOW SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA BY MEMORIAL
DAY.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT...I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...EVEN AS THE RIDGE STARTS SLIDING EAST BY DAY
6/7.  ONGOING FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO BE IN THE
BALLPARK...WITH ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS MADE HERE OR THERE.  /53/

MARINE...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
DOMINANT SFC HIGH ACROSS THE GULF WILL CONTINUE THE SE FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LACK OF AN OPPOSING LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE NW
WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN
TURN KEEPING SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET. LOWER VISIBILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NOTED ACROSS MARINE AREAS FROM SMOKE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. /64/

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
WITH COMBINED SEAS AVERAGING 4 FEET OR LESS.  A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT TO EXERCISE
CAUTION OR THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.  A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN OVER THE MARINE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS
THIS WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION HAPPENING...
ANY PROBABILITIES WILL BE KEPT UNDER 15 PERCENT.  /53/
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

000
FXUS64 KCRP 240532 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1232 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CIGS TONIGHT WITH VFR PREVAILING
ALL TERMINALS BY MIDDAY AND THRU THE AFTN FRIDAY. LLVL CLOUD DECK
WITH CIGS AT MVFR LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DVLP AND EXPAND IN AREAL
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WITH ALL TERMINALS XPCTD TO EXPERIENCE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES BY SUNRISE. CIGS SHOULD RISE WITH CLOUD DECK
MIXING OUT DURING MRNG HRS OF FRIDAY WITH VFR RETURNING FOR
REMAINDER OF DAYLIGHT HRS. MVFR CIGS MAY AGAIN RETURN BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD AT KCRP/KVCT/KALI. CONVECTION VCNTY KDRT TERMINAL
EARLY THIS MRNG NOT CURRENTLY XPCTD TO IMPACT KLRD TERMINAL...BUT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DVLP DURING DAY FRI AND FRIDAY EVENING.
CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN KLRD TAF BUT
MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN LATER TAF PKGS. LIGHT TO BRIEFLY
MODERATE ESE WINDS TONIGHT TO BECOME SERLY AND GUSTY DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  77  91  76  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          88  73  90  72  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            95  76  94  75  97  /  20  20  20  10  10
ALICE             90  76  91  73  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  77  87  76  86  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           95  76  96  72  94  /  20  20  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        90  76  91  75  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  76  85  76  86  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...HART/79

000
FXUS64 KSJT 240457
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1157 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013


.DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION/

&&

.AVIATION...
LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WILL WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH. MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT KABI WILL HAVE
THUNDER WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THROUGH
9Z. MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL SITES IN RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY
LAYER...SCATTERING OUT LATE MORNING. BROUGHT IN VCTS AT 21Z FRIDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.

04
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE SEVERE AND TORNADO WATCHES.

DISCUSSION...
STORMS WERE WEAKENING AT 10 PM. THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT LOOKING AT ORGANIZED SEVERE
ACTIVITY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO SLOW MOVING STORMS.

04

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD BROWN...COLEMAN..CONCHO...MCCULLOCH SAN SABA
COUNTIES INTO SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 214 UNTIL 10 PM..

STORM COMPLEX IN CALLAHAN AND SHACKELFORD COUNTIES CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD TOWARD COLEMAN AND BROWN COUNTIES...WITH EXTREME
DAMAGING WINDS.

04

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION/

AVIATION...
LARGE STORM COMPLEX JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ABILENE WILL
AFFECT THE ABILENE AIRPORT BEGINNING AROUND 7 PM...WITH HIGH
WINDS CLOSE TO 50 KTS THROUGH 830 PM.

COMPLEX WILL END BEFORE AFFECTING SOUTHERN TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS
RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND DISSIPATE MID
MORNING.

04

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...
OBVIOUS ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG COUNTRY
AREA...WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
CONCHO VALLEY...AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA...WITH ONE CLUSTER NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND A MORE
INTENSE AREA SOUTHWEST OF CHILDRESS WHERE TORNADO WARNINGS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR BIG COUNTRY
COUNTIES. WHILE WIND SHEAR DECREASES IN MAGNITUDE AS ONE MOVES
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE INITIAL CONVECTION...INSTABILITY ACTUALLY
INCREASES. SO...WHILE STORMS MAY NOT BE TAPPING INTO THE BEST SHEAR
AS THEY ENTER OUR AREA...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH AS SFC BASED CAPE VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 J/KG.

FARTHER SOUTH...CAPE VALUES FROM THE SOUTHERN BIG COUNTRY INTO THE
CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU RANGE FROM 4500 TO 5000
J/KG...SO THERE IS EVEN MORE INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO. HOWEVER...THE
CAP STRENGTHENS AS ONE MOVES EAST...SO THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...SHEAR
ALSO WEAKENS...SO STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO ROTATE AS THEY
INITIALLY DEVELOP...SUSTAINED ORGANIZATION IS QUESTIONABLE.

AS THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...UPSCALE
DEVELOPMENT INTO CLUSTERS OF STORMS OR WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS/S IS
EXPECTED...AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THAT IN MIND...AND
THE FACT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE AROUND...HAVE
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA. ALSO...WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL DISRUPTING THINGS...HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE INHERITED UPPER 80S FOR THE AREA.

20

LONG TERM...
THE CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLY ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. EXACTLY WHERE STORMS DEVELOP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT ARE LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTION
COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT FOR NOW I HAVE LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY AS THE MAIN FOCUS HAS BEEN ON THE FIRST 48 HOURS.

DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ASHORE THE WEST COAST TUESDAY...THEN APPROACHING
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUE...SO FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT POPS JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT. POPS
MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED ON FUTURE SHIFTS IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

DANIELS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  70  88  68  85  68 /  70  30  30  20  20
SAN ANGELO  71  88  68  87  68 /  40  30  30  20  20
JUNCTION  71  88  69  86  68 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04

000
FXUS64 KFWD 240453 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1153 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND NOCTURNAL STRATUS.

BENIGN CONVECTION IN CENTRAL TEXAS WILL DELAY BUT NOT ENTIRELY
DISRUPT THE ARRIVAL OF NOCTURNAL STRATUS. THE CEILINGS MAY BE
BRIEFLY IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. THE DECK WILL LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY BUT WILL LIKELY TAKE THE BULK OF THE DAY TO SCATTER.

EXTENDED...
THE NEXT STRATUS INTRUSION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ARRIVE A FEW HOURS
EARLIER.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
THE CLUSTER OF STORMS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA...
BETWEEN ALBANY AND COLEMAN...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT ANVIL PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ACROSS GRAHAM TO SOUTHWEST OF MUENSTER. THE 0215Z METAR
FROM GRAHAM /KRPH/ INDICATED 5SM -RA. AN UPDATE WAS SENT EARLIER
TO REMOVE THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 06Z FROM ALL BUT THE WESTERN
MOST COUNTIES. AFTER 06Z...SEVERAL OF THE MODELS ARE STILL
ATTEMPTING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
I-20. WILL TRIM THE POPS TO 10 PERCENTS ACROSS THE METROPLEX
EASTWARD...AND LOWER THE 30S TO 20S IN AREAS TO THE NORTH.
UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING STORM
COMPLEX IN OKLAHOMA IS CURRENTLY DRAPED NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR
NORTHWEST TO NEAR CHILDRESS. THIS BOUNDARY CAN EASILY BE SEEN ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE WITH CLEARING SUBSIDENT AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTH...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A 20Z FWD RAOB DOES SHOW
AN UNCAPPED AIRMASS WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT AND THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...CANT RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR IS
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO REALLY
HELP INITIATE UPWARD MOTIONS OF THE PARCELS. WILL THROW IN A
MENTION OF ISO T WITH A 10 POP BEFORE 00Z FOR AREAS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. IF A STORM DOES GO...IT WOULD LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH
A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND 0-6 SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS.

THE HIGH MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS ALL THE WAY TO CHILDRESS WHERE THE
FIRST SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN UPSLOPE FLOW. A
SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO...AND
AS THIS UPPER SUPPORT ENCOMPASSES MORE OF THE REGION...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS.
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERE GIVEN HIGH CAPE AND STRONG
SHEAR. THE STORM MOVEMENT TODAY WILL LIKELY BE SLOW...AND
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THESE
STORMS AWAY FROM OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...MOST STORMS WOULD BY THEN BE MUCH WEAKER WITH THE
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND AN INCREASING NOCTURNAL CAPPING
INVERSION. OUR BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE FROM ANY
COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT COULD DEVELOP IN OKLAHOMA...SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. THE TTU WRF DOES DEVELOP A COMPLEX IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AFTER 06Z AND SENDS IT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES
NEAR DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A WEAK
MID LEVEL LOW OVER WEST TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO TODAYS ACTIVITY VIA
LATENT HEAT RELEASE PROCESSES FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY MEANDER EAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
UPPER SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. WENT WITH A 20
POP ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS FOR TOMORROW AND 30 POP FOR THE
WESTERN ZONES...WHERE THE BEST LIFT SHOULD BE LOCATED. MID-LEVEL
FLOW TOMORROW WILL BE 5 TO 15 KNOTS WHICH LEADS TO ONLY 10 TO 20
KNOTS OF SHEAR. CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR 2000 J/KG SO THINK
SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL BUT CANT RULE OUT A MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL STORM BEFORE THE UPDRAFT DIES. WHAT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IS
MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN SLOW
MOVEMENTS. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW
NIGHT...AS STORMS THERE ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE STILL ONGOING AFTER
00Z. WILL CONTINUE THE 20 POP FOR ALL COUNTIES SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW
COULD STILL BE MEANDERING AROUND THE AREA...BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER
SUPPORT OR A SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY AND BEYOND...KEPT
THE REST OF THE FORECAST DRY. THIS LIFT FOR STORMS FRIDAY AND EVEN
SATURDAY IS DEPENDENT ON THERE BEING A LOT OF ACTIVITY FROM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS STORMS...SO THE FORECAST COULD CHANGE.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90S DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S. A STRONGER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SW CONUS
AROUND MID-WEEK AND THEN EJECT INTO THE PLAINS SOMETIME LATE NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE BEST
LIFT...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT
LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO ADD POPS...ONCE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
CAN BE GAINED REGARDING THE TIMING.

HAMPSHIRE



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  89  69  87  69 /  10  20  10  20  20
WACO, TX              70  89  69  87  68 /  20  20  10  20  10
PARIS, TX             65  82  62  85  66 /  20  20  10  20  20
DENTON, TX            68  88  67  88  69 /  20  20  10  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          67  87  66  87  68 /  20  20  10  20  20
DALLAS, TX            73  90  71  88  70 /  10  20  10  20  20
TERRELL, TX           70  88  67  87  68 /  10  20  10  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         71  89  68  87  68 /  10  20  10  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            69  88  68  86  66 /  20  20  10  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  88  66  86  66 /  20  30  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/58

000
FXUS64 KHGX 240450
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1150 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
BKN TO OVC HIGH DECKS STREAMING OVER FROM WESTERN CONVECTION...MAY
IMPACT THE TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR DECKS AND/OR MVFR VISBIES. CURRENT
TREND IS FOR THE THINNING OF THIS UPPER LEVEL DECK IN ALLOWING THE
LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE...EVENTUALLY DEVELOP SUB/NEAR 1K FT BKN-
OVC CEILINGS BY SUNRISE. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING
FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
A LONE STORM IN HOUSTON COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
AN UNCHANGED VERY MOIST LOWER FEW THOUSAND FOOT LAYER WILL HAVE
AREAWIDE IFR CEILINGS (ISOLATED LIFR) FORMING SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC VISIBILITY-RESTRICTING HZ/BR JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE...LOCALLY UNDER A MILE OVER MORE RURAL HUBS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM 13Z THROUGH 17Z...EAST-VEERING-
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KT AFTERNOON BREEZE WITH A THICKER HIGH OVERCAST
FROM ANTICIPATED WESTERN TX THUNDERSTORM (ANVIL) CI BLOW-OFF. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR QUIET SO FAR THIS AFTN BUT RELUCTANT TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE
MENTION OF PCPN FOR THIS EVENING. WE SHOULD BE REACHING CONVECTIVE
TEMPS SHORTLY.

OTHERWISE NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE GOING FCST OF MAINLY AFTN/
EARLY EVENING PCPN THESE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK UPPER RIDGING COUPLED
WITH SHORTWAVES FROM THE WEST AND THIS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS
SETTLED OVER THE REGION BEING THE MAIN FACTORS. THIS PATTERN LOOKS
TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK OR SO. AT THAT TIME...MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO DIFFER. ECMWF A BIT SLOWER (BUT STRONGER) WITH THIS
NEXT UPPER TROF THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT WEDS/THURS. ATTM...OPTING TO
KEEP WITH GFS AS IT HAS BEEN VERIFYING BETTER OF LATE. 41

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TOWARDS THE EAST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE EASTWARDS. LOW PRESSURE IN WEST TEXAS
THOUGH WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLANES. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TIDES LATE NEXT WEEK. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  90  70  90  69 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  90  71  89  71 /  10  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  83  73  84  74 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31

000
FXUS64 KAMA 240447 AAD
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1147 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...
NEW THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAMA AT THIS TIME HAVE
BEEN MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH AND POSE IMMEDIATE THREAT TO KAMA
TERMINAL.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL INTO IFR RANGE BEFORE
SUNRISE AT ALL TERMINALS DUE TO MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.  LOW-LEVEL
COOLING EXPECTED TO LIMIT STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...IF THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST...EXPECTED STRATUS FIELD COULD BE
DISRUPTED. IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 15Z FRIDAY
...WITH TRANSITION TO VFR OCCURRING BY 18Z.  SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...AND TO THEN BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON FRIDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

UPDATE...
FORECASTING HAS TO BE ONE OF THE MOST HUMBLING PROFESSIONS AROUND.
JUST WHEN YOU THINK YOU HAVE A HANDLE ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE, THEY
CHANGE IN THE BLINK OF AN EYE -- OR A RADAR VOLUME SCAN. CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS REALLY INCREASED IN INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST FEW VOLUME SCANS. IT APPEARS THAT THESE STORMS ARE
TAPPING INTO ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY, DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 50 KT, WHICH IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS/POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES. WHILE THE
ELEVATED BUOYANCY VALUES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT OVERNIGHT, DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH TIME AND SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 30 KT BY 3 AM. AS A RESULT, WE THINK THERE IS A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH 3 AM, MAINLY WEST OF GUYMON TO
AMARILLO LINE. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS. AFTER 3 AM, STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS, BUT HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS.

DISCUSSION...
MOST FOLKS WILL BE VERY DISAPPOINTED BY THE LACK OF RAIN THAT
OCCURRED TODAY, ESPECIALLY SINCE DEW POINTS ROSE INTO THE 60S IN
MANY AREAS. UNFORTUNATELY FOR OUR AREA, A COUPLE OF DOMINANT
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONGEALED INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
GENERATED A SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT RACED NORTHWESTWARD AND
CAUSED STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. AS THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ENCOUNTERED A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES, IT
HELPED INITIATE A COUPLE OF BRIEF SUPERCELLS JUST NORTH OF AMARILLO.
HOWEVER, DUE TO QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND A LACK OF
STRONGER UPPER FORCING, THESE SUPERCELLS QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE STORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS IN NEW MEXICO, AIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY,
COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS
WE SAW EARLIER THIS EVENING, THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GETS FARTHER FROM THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE, WE`RE NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT, SO WE LOWERED POPS FURTHER. HOWEVER, WITH A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST, WE`LL KEEP A MENTION FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE WILL LIKELY BE
THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS IF STORMS DO IMPACT OUR AREA.

DUE TO BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS AND INCREASING LOW CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT. DUE TO THIS, WE WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES. WITH THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE, SOME PATCHY
FOG OR EVEN DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP AFTER 4 AM. THE PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL IS CONDITIONAL UPON WINDS SUBSIDING UNDER 10 MPH, BUT
SINCE THIS IS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR IN MOST LOCATIONS, WE LEFT THE
MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST. UPDATED PRODUCTS AND
POINT-N-CLICK FORECASTS ARE UPDATED.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LOOKS
DOUBTFUL AFTER THE ONE STORM NORTH OF KAMA DISSIPATES.

THE NEXT AVIATION CONCERN BECOMES LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL TONIGHT. HAVE
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS AT KGUY...WHERE CIGS CONTINUE
TO BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF THE MVFR RANGE. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...BUT THEN EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO TAKE HOLD
AGAIN...LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN AT KGUY BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT
DHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THINGS
VFR AT KAMA AND KDHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
AT THESE SITES AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS
POINT.

GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH SOME AND VEER TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS THEN EXPECTED AGAIN BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS WE
HEAD INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD. THE STALLED FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA ...AND A DRY LINE INTERSECTING THIS FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...WILL
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUSES FOR CONVECTION. THEREFORE THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND PWAT VALUES AT LEAST IN THE 75TH PERCENTILE RANGE MOVING INTO
THE AREA...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DECREASING
OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO THE
EXACT PLACEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION...AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
TODAY/S CONVECTION WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN THE COMING
DAYS. IN GENERAL...THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL BE FAVORED...WITH
1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE MAINLY IN THE WEST. A TALL AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL FAVOR MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAN LARGE HAIL OR TORNADO THREAT.

SUNDAY...
THE DRYLINE ON SUNDAY SHOULD PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...SETTING UP
MORE LIKELY NEAR OR EAST OF AMARILLO. AGAIN...1500-2500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE AND A TALLER SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGEST A HIGH RISK FOR
HEAVY RAIN.

NF

LONG TERM...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK...WITH AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE REGION REMAINS STATIONED BETWEEN AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS STATES/MS VALLEY. THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING...AND ALSO KEEP THE
DRYLINE FROM MIXING TOO FAR EAST. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY MIX FROM
EASTERN NM INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH DAY...POSSIBLY HANGING
UP IN EASTERN NM ON A COUPLE DAYS...PROVIDING A DAILY FOCUS FOR AT
LEAST A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE STORM CHANCES ON A GIVEN DAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE EVENTUAL EJECTION OF THE MAIN
WESTERN TROUGH...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE
TRENDED MORE CLOSELY TO THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF FOR NOW. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE MODEST ON MOST DAYS...LIKELY INCREASING
LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN THE TROUGH DOES EVENTUALLY EJECT.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING IN EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT OF A FEW
SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
TO UPPER 60S.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK AS RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/13

000
FXUS64 KEWX 240444
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1144 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...
MVFR STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE
REGION AND WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT PROGRESSION OF THE STORMS...AND ANALYSIS OF HI-
RES MODELS SUGGESTS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THE STORMS TO IMPACT AREA
TAF TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE CIG BASES TO LOWER
TO IFR AT I-35 TAF SITES IN THE NEAR-SUNRISE HOURS BEFORE LIFTING
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS AND RETURNING TO VFR BY 17-18Z. SFC
WINDS WILL BE SE-SLY 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND EXTENDING WEST TO PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU TO VAL VERDE COUNTY FOR TONIGHT. THE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY WILL DEVELOP TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A SERIES OF S/W TROFS FROM 500 TO 300 HPA ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
JUST NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
SATURDAY...EAST OF A 500 TO 300 HPA LARGER SCALE TROF OVER
THE WESTERN U.S...CAUSING LOWER HEIGHTS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALOFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL CAUSE A SLIGHTLY MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHRA AND TSRA TO DEVELOP. AS A RESULT
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WEST TO NORTH
PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST
DATA AVAILABLE AT HAND THIS EVENING SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF IH35...AS INDICATED BY 00Z MAY 24TH
MAPS AND INPUT FROM THE 18Z...00Z...AND SOME OF THE ECMWF DATA
AVAILABLE. THE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
SATURDAY...THEREFORE...SHOWED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUING NEAR AND WEST OF IH35 ON SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST TO GO SLIGHTLY
NORTH WITH MORE RIDGING FORECAST ALOFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
AS THE STORM TRACK COMES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE
WEST PART OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND OVER ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS BY THURSDAY. MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS DIFFER ON HOW LONG THE
WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER MOST SOLUTIONS BEYOND THE FIRST WEEKEND OF
JUNE...JUNE 1ST AND 2ND...SUGGEST THAT RIDGING COULD INCREASE
AGAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...IF THE STORM
TRACK DOES MOVE NORTH...AS FORECASTS CURRENTLY SHOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED TRENDS WITH ONGOING FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A LARGE SCALE 700 TO 200 HPA TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THE MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AGAIN BY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  AFTER
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY
WITH TIME CARRY THIS PATTERN NORTH. A SERIES OF S/W TROFS FROM
500 TO 300 HPA ARE FORECAST TO MOVE JUST NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY...CAUSING LOWER HEIGHTS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALOFT...AND CREATING A SLIGHTLY MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHRA AND TSRA TO DEVELOP. AS A RESULT
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WEST PART OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST DATA
AVAILABLE AT HAND EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF IH35...AS INDICATED BY 00Z MAY 24TH
MAPS AND INPUT FROM THE 18Z AND SOME OF THE 00Z FORECAST AND ECMWF
DATA AVAILABLE. THE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
SATURDAY...THEREFORE...SHOWED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUING NEAR AND WEST OF IH35 ON SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS SLOWLY DEVELOP...AS RIDGING ALOFT INCREASES
AGAIN. AS THE STORM TRACK COMES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER THE WEST PART OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND OVER ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY THURSDAY. MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS DIFFER ON
HOW LONG THE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MOST SOLUTIONS BEYOND THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF JUNE...JUNE 1ST AND 2ND...SUGGEST THAT RIDGING COULD
INCREASE AGAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...IF
THE STORM TRACK DOES MOVE NORTH...AS FORECASTS CURRENTLY SHOW.
CONTINUED TRENDS WITH ONGOING FORECASTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL
REDEVELOP BY 05-06Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND SPREAD WEST TO
KDRT AROUND 08-09Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 17-18Z. SE-SLY SFC
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE TO 8 TO 12 KTS
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
AND MOVE TOWARD THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THESE
STORMS TO MOVE INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. FORECAST CAPE IS AROUND 2000
J/KG...SO POTENTIAL IS FOR SOME STORMS TO BE SEVERE. WE HAVE
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY UNTIL 10
PM. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL BE RAIN FREE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM
THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST AIR IN PLACE. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE AND THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATURDAY THE SLIGHT CHANCE WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST AS FAR AS
I10/I37. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY
ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. THEN THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE IN
THE REPEATING PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS AND CLEARING
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND BE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE
NEXT CHANGE WILL COME WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  93  73  94  71 /  10  20  20  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  72  93  69 /  10  20  20  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  92  71  93  70 /  10  20  20  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  89  70  90  68 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  90  74  92  73 /  20  30  30  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  89  71  91  69 /  20  20  20  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  94  74  93  71 /  10  20  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  73  92  70 /  10  20  20  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  74  91  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  92  74  92  72 /  10  20  20  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  92  74  92  71 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08

000
FXUS64 KLUB 240422
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1122 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE
IN EITHER TAF. ALSO OF QUESTION IS MVFR CIG POTENTIAL WITH SOME
EXPECTATION OF LOW CLOUDS FORMING LATE TONIGHT. WILL FOLLOW MODEL
LEAD FAVORING KCDS ATTM. AS FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTN AND
EVENING...00Z MODEL RUN OFFERING LITTLE GUIDANCE. SOME EXPECTATION
THAT STORMS COULD DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH DETAILS RELATED TO SFC
BOUNDARIES AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PARTICULAR STILL
FAR FROM KNOW. WILL FAVOR KLBB OVER KCDS ATTM WITH PROB30 MENTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED MOST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AS A
MOIST 40 KT SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ RIDES OVER THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE
AT THE SFC. THIS WAA REGIME WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD
EXCEPT NEAR WHERE CURRENT CONVECTION IS ONGOING. ONE STORM THAT
DID IMPACT THE LUBBOCK AIRPORT DROPPED AN IMPRESSIVE 0.80 INCH IN
A SHORT TIME. WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TRY
AND SNEAK IN FROM EASTERN NM...THOUGH IT IS HAVING DIFFICULTY
BREACHING THE STATE LINE ATTM. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE REMAINDER OF THE TORNADO WATCH IN OUR
AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR MASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FA ON GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE OUTFLOW/FRONT. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN END
TO SFC-BASED CONVECTION LOCALLY. HOWEVER...STOUT SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ HAS RESULTED IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ABOVE
THE COOLER SFC AIR...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

AVIATION...
TSRA NOW SHIFTING WELL SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES AND LIKELY TO STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH. SMALL CHANCE TS COULD MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS KLBB
BY 03Z WHILE SOME INDICATIONS OF SH OR TS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE THAT COULD COME CLOSE TO KCDS. BOTH
SCENARIOS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. MEANWHILE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...
THIS EVENING...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG LOW-LVL JET WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS ACROSS THE S-SE
FOR A SLOW-MOVING MCS THAT COULD BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY LINGERING MORNING
CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST
OF THE FA AND LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS - HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH OF THE MIDDLE 80S IF MORNING CLOUD
COVER HANGS ON. AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES STILL APPEAR VALID ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. THE DRYLINE WILL BE BACKED WEST INTO NEW MEXICO SO
THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG SFC FORCING MECHANISM...BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE FAR
SRN PANHANDLE TO THE SW SPLNS. WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL FAVOR
WEAKLY ORGANIZED SLOW-MOVING STORMS. SVR HAIL AND WIND WILL STILL BE
A THREAT WITH LARGE INSTABILITY.

LONG TERM...
MINIMAL UPDATES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN LIGHT OF IMPENDING
SEVERE WX THREAT. AN ACTIVE DRYLINE IS STILL A GOOD BET EACH DAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER A WEAKLY UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW REGIME.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY BY MIDWEEK AS A MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH
EJECTS OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
DRYLINE WILL RESIDE AS THE GFS FAVORS A FASTER WAVE AND MORE
EASTERLY DRYLINE VERSUS A SLOWER WAVE AND MORE WESTERLY DRYLINE
LONGITUDE PER THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS. SEASONABLE
TEMPS OVERALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        59  86  60  81  60 /  30  50  30  20  20
TULIA         63  84  62  81  61 /  30  50  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     64  85  63  81  62 /  30  50  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     64  86  64  81  61 /  30  50  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       66  84  65  82  63 /  40  50  30  20  20
DENVER CITY   63  86  64  81  61 /  20  50  30  20  20
BROWNFIELD    64  86  65  82  62 /  30  50  30  20  20
CHILDRESS     65  84  66  83  66 /  30  30  30  20  20
SPUR          67  82  66  82  64 /  50  50  30  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  84  67  83  68 /  50  30  40  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07

000
FXUS64 KAMA 240413 AAD
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1113 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
FORECASTING HAS TO BE ONE OF THE MOST HUMBLING PROFESSIONS AROUND.
JUST WHEN YOU THINK YOU HAVE A HANDLE ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE, THEY
CHANGE IN THE BLINK OF AN EYE -- OR A RADAR VOLUME SCAN. CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS REALLY INCREASED IN INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST FEW VOLUME SCANS. IT APPEARS THAT THESE STORMS ARE
TAPPING INTO ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY, DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 50 KT, WHICH IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS/POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES. WHILE THE
ELEVATED BUOYANCY VALUES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT OVERNIGHT, DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH TIME AND SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 30 KT BY 3 AM. AS A RESULT, WE THINK THERE IS A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH 3 AM, MAINLY WEST OF GUYMON TO
AMARILLO LINE. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS. AFTER 3 AM, STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS, BUT HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS.

DISCUSSION...
MOST FOLKS WILL BE VERY DISAPPOINTED BY THE LACK OF RAIN THAT
OCCURRED TODAY, ESPECIALLY SINCE DEW POINTS ROSE INTO THE 60S IN
MANY AREAS. UNFORTUNATELY FOR OUR AREA, A COUPLE OF DOMINANT
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONGEALED INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
GENERATED A SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT RACED NORTHWESTWARD AND
CAUSED STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. AS THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ENCOUNTERED A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES, IT
HELPED INITIATE A COUPLE OF BRIEF SUPERCELLS JUST NORTH OF AMARILLO.
HOWEVER, DUE TO QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND A LACK OF
STRONGER UPPER FORCING, THESE SUPERCELLS QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE STORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS IN NEW MEXICO, AIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY,
COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS
WE SAW EARLIER THIS EVENING, THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GETS FARTHER FROM THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE, WE`RE NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT, SO WE LOWERED POPS FURTHER. HOWEVER, WITH A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST, WE`LL KEEP A MENTION FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE WILL LIKELY BE
THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS IF STORMS DO IMPACT OUR AREA.

DUE TO BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS AND INCREASING LOW CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT. DUE TO THIS, WE WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES. WITH THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE, SOME PATCHY
FOG OR EVEN DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP AFTER 4 AM. THE PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL IS CONDITIONAL UPON WINDS SUBSIDING UNDER 10 MPH, BUT
SINCE THIS IS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR IN MOST LOCATIONS, WE LEFT THE
MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST. UPDATED PRODUCTS AND
POINT-N-CLICK FORECASTS ARE UPDATED.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LOOKS
DOUBTFUL AFTER THE ONE STORM NORTH OF KAMA DISSIPATES.

THE NEXT AVIATION CONCERN BECOMES LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL TONIGHT. HAVE
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS AT KGUY...WHERE CIGS CONTINUE
TO BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF THE MVFR RANGE. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...BUT THEN EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO TAKE HOLD
AGAIN...LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN AT KGUY BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT
DHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THINGS
VFR AT KAMA AND KDHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
AT THESE SITES AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS
POINT.

GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH SOME AND VEER TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS THEN EXPECTED AGAIN BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS WE
HEAD INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD. THE STALLED FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA ...AND A DRY LINE INTERSECTING THIS FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...WILL
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUSES FOR CONVECTION. THEREFORE THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND PWAT VALUES AT LEAST IN THE 75TH PERCENTILE RANGE MOVING INTO
THE AREA...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DECREASING
OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO THE
EXACT PLACEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION...AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
TODAY/S CONVECTION WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN THE COMING
DAYS. IN GENERAL...THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL BE FAVORED...WITH
1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE MAINLY IN THE WEST. A TALL AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL FAVOR MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAN LARGE HAIL OR TORNADO THREAT.

SUNDAY...
THE DRYLINE ON SUNDAY SHOULD PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...SETTING UP
MORE LIKELY NEAR OR EAST OF AMARILLO. AGAIN...1500-2500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE AND A TALLER SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGEST A HIGH RISK FOR
HEAVY RAIN.

NF

LONG TERM...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK...WITH AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE REGION REMAINS STATIONED BETWEEN AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS STATES/MS VALLEY. THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING...AND ALSO KEEP THE
DRYLINE FROM MIXING TOO FAR EAST. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY MIX FROM
EASTERN NM INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH DAY...POSSIBLY HANGING
UP IN EASTERN NM ON A COUPLE DAYS...PROVIDING A DAILY FOCUS FOR AT
LEAST A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE STORM CHANCES ON A GIVEN DAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE EVENTUAL EJECTION OF THE MAIN
WESTERN TROUGH...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE
TRENDED MORE CLOSELY TO THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF FOR NOW. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE MODEST ON MOST DAYS...LIKELY INCREASING
LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN THE TROUGH DOES EVENTUALLY EJECT.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING IN EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT OF A FEW
SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
TO UPPER 60S.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK AS RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

JC/JJ

000
FXUS64 KEWX 240341
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1041 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND EXTENDING WEST TO PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU TO VAL VERDE COUNTY FOR TONIGHT. THE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY WILL DEVELOP TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A SERIES OF S/W TROFS FROM 500 TO 300 HPA ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
JUST NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
SATURDAY...EAST OF A 500 TO 300 HPA LARGER SCALE TROF OVER
THE WESTERN U.S...CAUSING LOWER HEIGHTS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALOFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL CAUSE A SLIGHTLY MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHRA AND TSRA TO DEVELOP. AS A RESULT
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WEST TO NORTH
PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST
DATA AVAILABLE AT HAND THIS EVENING SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF IH35...AS INDICATED BY 00Z MAY 24TH
MAPS AND INPUT FROM THE 18Z...00Z...AND SOME OF THE ECMWF DATA
AVAILABLE. THE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
SATURDAY...THEREFORE...SHOWED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUING NEAR AND WEST OF IH35 ON SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST TO GO SLIGHTLY
NORTH WITH MORE RIDGING FORECAST ALOFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
AS THE STORM TRACK COMES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE
WEST PART OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND OVER ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS BY THURSDAY. MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS DIFFER ON HOW LONG THE
WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER MOST SOLUTIONS BEYOND THE FIRST WEEKEND OF
JUNE...JUNE 1ST AND 2ND...SUGGEST THAT RIDGING COULD INCREASE
AGAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...IF THE STORM
TRACK DOES MOVE NORTH...AS FORECASTS CURRENTLY SHOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED TRENDS WITH ONGOING FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A LARGE SCALE 700 TO 200 HPA TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THE MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AGAIN BY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  AFTER
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY
WITH TIME CARRY THIS PATTERN NORTH. A SERIES OF S/W TROFS FROM
500 TO 300 HPA ARE FORECAST TO MOVE JUST NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY...CAUSING LOWER HEIGHTS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALOFT...AND CREATING A SLIGHTLY MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHRA AND TSRA TO DEVELOP. AS A RESULT
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WEST PART OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST DATA
AVAILABLE AT HAND EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF IH35...AS INDICATED BY 00Z MAY 24TH
MAPS AND INPUT FROM THE 18Z AND SOME OF THE 00Z FORECAST AND ECMWF
DATA AVAILABLE. THE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
SATURDAY...THEREFORE...SHOWED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUING NEAR AND WEST OF IH35 ON SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS SLOWLY DEVELOP...AS RIDGING ALOFT INCREASES
AGAIN. AS THE STORM TRACK COMES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER THE WEST PART OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND OVER ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY THURSDAY. MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS DIFFER ON
HOW LONG THE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MOST SOLUTIONS BEYOND THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF JUNE...JUNE 1ST AND 2ND...SUGGEST THAT RIDGING COULD
INCREASE AGAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...IF
THE STORM TRACK DOES MOVE NORTH...AS FORECASTS CURRENTLY SHOW.
CONTINUED TRENDS WITH ONGOING FORECASTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL
REDEVELOP BY 05-06Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND SPREAD WEST TO
KDRT AROUND 08-09Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 17-18Z. SE-SLY SFC
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE TO 8 TO 12 KTS
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
AND MOVE TOWARD THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THESE
STORMS TO MOVE INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. FORECAST CAPE IS AROUND 2000
J/KG...SO POTENTIAL IS FOR SOME STORMS TO BE SEVERE. WE HAVE
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY UNTIL 10
PM. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL BE RAIN FREE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM
THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST AIR IN PLACE. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE AND THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATURDAY THE SLIGHT CHANCE WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST AS FAR AS
I10/I37. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY
ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. THEN THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE IN
THE REPEATING PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS AND CLEARING
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND BE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE
NEXT CHANGE WILL COME WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  93  73  94  71 /  10  20  20  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  72  93  69 /  10  20  20  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  92  71  93  70 /  10  20  20  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  89  70  90  68 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  90  74  92  73 /  20  30  30  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  89  71  91  69 /  20  20  20  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  94  74  93  71 /  10  20  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  73  92  70 /  10  20  20  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  74  91  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  92  74  92  72 /  10  20  20  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  92  74  92  71 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

000
FXUS64 KAMA 240335 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1035 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOST FOLKS WILL BE VERY DISAPPOINTED BY THE LACK OF RAIN THAT
OCCURRED TODAY, ESPECIALLY SINCE DEW POINTS ROSE INTO THE 60S IN
MANY AREAS. UNFORTUNATELY FOR OUR AREA, A COUPLE OF DOMINANT
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONGEALED INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
GENERATED A SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT RACED NORTHWESTWARD AND
CAUSED STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. AS THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ENCOUNTERED A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES, IT
HELPED INITIATE A COUPLE OF BRIEF SUPERCELLS JUST NORTH OF AMARILLO.
HOWEVER, DUE TO QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND A LACK OF
STRONGER UPPER FORCING, THESE SUPERCELLS QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE STORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS IN NEW MEXICO, AIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY,
COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS
WE SAW EARLIER THIS EVENING, THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GETS FARTHER FROM THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE, WE`RE NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT, SO WE LOWERED POPS FURTHER. HOWEVER, WITH A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST, WE`LL KEEP A MENTION FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE WILL LIKELY BE
THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS IF STORMS DO IMPACT OUR AREA.

DUE TO BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS AND INCREASING LOW CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT. DUE TO THIS, WE WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES. WITH THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE, SOME PATCHY
FOG OR EVEN DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP AFTER 4 AM. THE PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL IS CONDITIONAL UPON WINDS SUBSIDING UNDER 10 MPH, BUT
SINCE THIS IS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR IN MOST LOCATIONS, WE LEFT THE
MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST. UPDATED PRODUCTS AND
POINT-N-CLICK FORECASTS ARE UPDATED.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LOOKS
DOUBTFUL AFTER THE ONE STORM NORTH OF KAMA DISSIPATES.

THE NEXT AVIATION CONCERN BECOMES LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL TONIGHT. HAVE
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS AT KGUY...WHERE CIGS CONTINUE
TO BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF THE MVFR RANGE. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...BUT THEN EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO TAKE HOLD
AGAIN...LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN AT KGUY BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT
DHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THINGS
VFR AT KAMA AND KDHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
AT THESE SITES AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS
POINT.

GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH SOME AND VEER TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS THEN EXPECTED AGAIN BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS WE
HEAD INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD. THE STALLED FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA ...AND A DRY LINE INTERSECTING THIS FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...WILL
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUSES FOR CONVECTION. THEREFORE THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND PWAT VALUES AT LEAST IN THE 75TH PERCENTILE RANGE MOVING INTO
THE AREA...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DECREASING
OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO THE
EXACT PLACEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION...AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
TODAY/S CONVECTION WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN THE COMING
DAYS. IN GENERAL...THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL BE FAVORED...WITH
1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE MAINLY IN THE WEST. A TALL AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL FAVOR MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAN LARGE HAIL OR TORNADO THREAT.

SUNDAY...
THE DRYLINE ON SUNDAY SHOULD PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...SETTING UP
MORE LIKELY NEAR OR EAST OF AMARILLO. AGAIN...1500-2500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE AND A TALLER SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGEST A HIGH RISK FOR
HEAVY RAIN.

NF

LONG TERM...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK...WITH AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE REGION REMAINS STATIONED BETWEEN AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS STATES/MS VALLEY. THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING...AND ALSO KEEP THE
DRYLINE FROM MIXING TOO FAR EAST. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY MIX FROM
EASTERN NM INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH DAY...POSSIBLY HANGING
UP IN EASTERN NM ON A COUPLE DAYS...PROVIDING A DAILY FOCUS FOR AT
LEAST A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE STORM CHANCES ON A GIVEN DAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE EVENTUAL EJECTION OF THE MAIN
WESTERN TROUGH...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE
TRENDED MORE CLOSELY TO THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF FOR NOW. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE MODEST ON MOST DAYS...LIKELY INCREASING
LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN THE TROUGH DOES EVENTUALLY EJECT.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING IN EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT OF A FEW
SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
TO UPPER 60S.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK AS RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

JC/JJ

000
FXUS64 KMAF 240326
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1026 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ALL WATCHES HAVE EXPIRED AND SEVERE THREAT IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND
IS MAINLY CONFINED TO MITCHELL...GLASSCOCK...REAGAN..AND TERRELL
COUNTIES. HAVE LEFT A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE FCST THERE.
HEAVY RAIN IS MORE OF A CONCERN FOR NOW IN MITCHELL...GLASSCOCK...AND
REAGAN COUNTIES THRU AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE CANCELLED PORTIONS OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 214 AND TORNADO WATCH
213 EARLY AND WILL LET REMAINDER OF THE FAR E AND S CWFA THAT ARE STILL
IN THE WATCHES EXPIRE AT 10 PM. TSTMS ARE STILL ACROSS THE E PB
ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SOME. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ARE STILL ACROSS THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
POSSIBLE NEXT FEW ACROSS PB MAINLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE
BOUNDARY. WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND 10 PM FOR EXPIRATION
WATCHES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
FOCUS THIS FORECAST IS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS SOME SEVERE
AROUND THE AREA. FOR THE NEAR TERM THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
AT TAF SITES IN MINIMAL. STILL WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS THRU 02Z-05Z
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH TSTMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE
LATER FRI PM AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3 KJ/KG
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
TRANS PECOS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. MID LEVEL LIFT IS
PRESENT WITH GOOD OMEGA VALUES AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING NEAR THE
AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. A
TORNADO WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
PM CDT. THE SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE THE ONLY
PROHIBITING FACTOR KEEPING STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.
MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING NEAR CHILDRESS TX LATE
THIS EVENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
STORM COMPLEX MAY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS NEW MODEL
DATA COMES IN THIS EVENING.

EXPECT MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND UPPER LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP.  LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE LESS IMPRESSIVE
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1 INCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE CONVECTION.  KEPT RAIN AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL LIFT NEAR THE
AREA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.  THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.  RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FOR SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LEAVING THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.  A DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO
STORMS WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD DURING MID WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING MORE
POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING UPPER LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DECREASING HEIGHTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO HOT NEXT WEEK.  MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  85  68  84  /  30  30  40  20
BIG SPRING TX              61  86  69  85  /  50  30  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                69  90  65  92  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  74  87  69  88  /  20  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           64  87  67  86  /  20  30  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  84  61  87  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   67  87  64  86  /  20  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   57  81  57  85  /  20  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  85  69  84  /  30  30  40  20
ODESSA TX                  70  84  69  85  /  30  30  40  20
WINK TX                    70  86  69  93  /  20  30  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLUB 240311 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1011 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED MOST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AS A
MOIST 40 KT SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ RIDES OVER THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE
AT THE SFC. THIS WAA REGIME WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD
EXCEPT NEAR WHERE CURRENT CONVECTION IS ONGOING. ONE STORM THAT
DID IMPACT THE LUBBOCK AIRPORT DROPPED AN IMPRESSIVE 0.80 INCH IN
A SHORT TIME. WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TRY
AND SNEAK IN FROM EASTERN NM...THOUGH IT IS HAVING DIFFICULTY
BREACHING THE STATE LINE ATTM. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE REMAINDER OF THE TORNADO WATCH IN OUR
AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR MASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FA ON GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE OUTFLOW/FRONT. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN END
TO SFC-BASED CONVECTION LOCALLY. HOWEVER...STOUT SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ HAS RESULTED IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ABOVE
THE COOLER SFC AIR...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

AVIATION...
TSRA NOW SHIFTING WELL SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES AND LIKELY TO STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH. SMALL CHANCE TS COULD MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS KLBB
BY 03Z WHILE SOME INDICATIONS OF SH OR TS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE THAT COULD COME CLOSE TO KCDS. BOTH
SCENARIOS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. MEANWHILE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...
THIS EVENING...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG LOW-LVL JET WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS ACROSS THE S-SE
FOR A SLOW-MOVING MCS THAT COULD BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY LINGERING MORNING
CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST
OF THE FA AND LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS - HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH OF THE MIDDLE 80S IF MORNING CLOUD
COVER HANGS ON. AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES STILL APPEAR VALID ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. THE DRYLINE WILL BE BACKED WEST INTO NEW MEXICO SO
THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG SFC FORCING MECHANISM...BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE FAR
SRN PANHANDLE TO THE SW SPLNS. WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL FAVOR
WEAKLY ORGANIZED SLOW-MOVING STORMS. SVR HAIL AND WIND WILL STILL BE
A THREAT WITH LARGE INSTABILITY.

LONG TERM...
MINIMAL UPDATES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN LIGHT OF IMPENDING
SEVERE WX THREAT. AN ACTIVE DRYLINE IS STILL A GOOD BET EACH DAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER A WEAKLY UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW REGIME.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY BY MIDWEEK AS A MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH
EJECTS OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
DRYLINE WILL RESIDE AS THE GFS FAVORS A FASTER WAVE AND MORE
EASTERLY DRYLINE VERSUS A SLOWER WAVE AND MORE WESTERLY DRYLINE
LONGITUDE PER THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS. SEASONABLE
TEMPS OVERALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        59  86  60  81  60 /  30  50  30  20  20
TULIA         63  84  62  81  61 /  30  50  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     64  85  63  81  62 /  30  50  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     64  86  64  81  61 /  30  50  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       66  84  65  82  64 /  40  50  30  20  20
DENVER CITY   63  86  64  81  61 /  20  50  30  20  20
BROWNFIELD    64  86  65  82  62 /  30  50  30  20  20
CHILDRESS     65  84  66  83  66 /  30  30  30  20  20
SPUR          67  82  66  82  64 /  50  50  30  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  84  67  83  68 /  50  30  40  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07

000
FXUS64 KSJT 240305
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1005 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE SEVERE AND TORNADO WATCHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS WERE WEAKENING AT 10 PM. THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT LOOKING AT ORGANIZED SEVERE
ACTIVITY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO SLOW MOVING STORMS.

04

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD BROWN...COLEMAN..CONCHO...MCCULLOCH SAN SABA
COUNTIES INTO SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 214 UNTIL 10 PM..

STORM COMPLEX IN CALLAHAN AND SHACKELFORD COUNTIES CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD TOWARD COLEMAN AND BROWN COUNTIES...WITH EXTREME
DAMAGING WINDS.

04

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION/

AVIATION...
LARGE STORM COMPLEX JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ABILENE WILL
AFFECT THE ABILENE AIRPORT BEGINNING AROUND 7 PM...WITH HIGH
WINDS CLOSE TO 50 KTS THROUGH 830 PM.

COMPLEX WILL END BEFORE AFFECTING SOUTHERN TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS
RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND DISSIPATE MID
MORNING.

04

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...
OBVIOUS ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG COUNTRY
AREA...WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
CONCHO VALLEY...AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA...WITH ONE CLUSTER NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND A MORE
INTENSE AREA SOUTHWEST OF CHILDRESS WHERE TORNADO WARNINGS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR BIG COUNTRY
COUNTIES. WHILE WIND SHEAR DECREASES IN MAGNITUDE AS ONE MOVES
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE INITIAL CONVECTION...INSTABILITY ACTUALLY
INCREASES. SO...WHILE STORMS MAY NOT BE TAPPING INTO THE BEST SHEAR
AS THEY ENTER OUR AREA...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH AS SFC BASED CAPE VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 J/KG.

FARTHER SOUTH...CAPE VALUES FROM THE SOUTHERN BIG COUNTRY INTO THE
CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU RANGE FROM 4500 TO 5000
J/KG...SO THERE IS EVEN MORE INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO. HOWEVER...THE
CAP STRENGTHENS AS ONE MOVES EAST...SO THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...SHEAR
ALSO WEAKENS...SO STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO ROTATE AS THEY
INITIALLY DEVELOP...SUSTAINED ORGANIZATION IS QUESTIONABLE.

AS THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...UPSCALE
DEVELOPMENT INTO CLUSTERS OF STORMS OR WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS/S IS
EXPECTED...AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THAT IN MIND...AND
THE FACT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE AROUND...HAVE
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA. ALSO...WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL DISRUPTING THINGS...HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE INHERITED UPPER 80S FOR THE AREA.

20

LONG TERM...
THE CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLY ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. EXACTLY WHERE STORMS DEVELOP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT ARE LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTION
COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT FOR NOW I HAVE LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY AS THE MAIN FOCUS HAS BEEN ON THE FIRST 48 HOURS.

DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ASHORE THE WEST COAST TUESDAY...THEN APPROACHING
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUE...SO FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT POPS JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT. POPS
MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED ON FUTURE SHIFTS IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

DANIELS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  70  88  68  85  68 /  70  30  30  20  20
SAN ANGELO  71  88  68  87  68 /  40  30  30  20  20
JUNCTION  71  88  69  86  68 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04/99

000
FXUS64 KHGX 240259
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
959 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING
FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
A LONE STORM IN HOUSTON COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
AN UNCHANGED VERY MOIST LOWER FEW THOUSAND FOOT LAYER WILL HAVE
AREAWIDE IFR CEILINGS (ISOLATED LIFR) FORMING SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC VISIBILITY-RESTRICTING HZ/BR JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE...LOCALLY UNDER A MILE OVER MORE RURAL HUBS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM 13Z THROUGH 17Z...EAST-VEERING-
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KT AFTERNOON BREEZE WITH A THICKER HIGH OVERCAST
FROM ANTICIPATED WESTERN TX THUNDERSTORM (ANVIL) CI BLOW-OFF. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR QUIET SO FAR THIS AFTN BUT RELUCTANT TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE
MENTION OF PCPN FOR THIS EVENING. WE SHOULD BE REACHING CONVECTIVE
TEMPS SHORTLY.

OTHERWISE NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE GOING FCST OF MAINLY AFTN/
EARLY EVENING PCPN THESE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK UPPER RIDGING COUPLED
WITH SHORTWAVES FROM THE WEST AND THIS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS
SETTLED OVER THE REGION BEING THE MAIN FACTORS. THIS PATTERN LOOKS
TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK OR SO. AT THAT TIME...MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO DIFFER. ECMWF A BIT SLOWER (BUT STRONGER) WITH THIS
NEXT UPPER TROF THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT WEDS/THURS. ATTM...OPTING TO
KEEP WITH GFS AS IT HAS BEEN VERIFYING BETTER OF LATE. 41

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TOWARDS THE EAST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE EASTWARDS. LOW PRESSURE IN WEST TEXAS
THOUGH WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLANES. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TIDES LATE NEXT WEEK. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  90  70  90  69 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  90  71  89  71 /  10  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  83  73  84  74 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31

000
FXUS64 KFWD 240235 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
935 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
THE CLUSTER OF STORMS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA...
BETWEEN ALBANY AND COLEMAN...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT ANVIL PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ACROSS GRAHAM TO SOUTHWEST OF MUENSTER. THE 0215Z METAR
FROM GRAHAM /KRPH/ INDICATED 5SM -RA. AN UPDATE WAS SENT EARLIER
TO REMOVE THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 06Z FROM ALL BUT THE WESTERN
MOST COUNTIES. AFTER 06Z...SEVERAL OF THE MODELS ARE STILL
ATTEMPTING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
I-20. WILL TRIM THE POPS TO 10 PERCENTS ACROSS THE METROPLEX
EASTWARD...AND LOWER THE 30S TO 20S IN AREAS TO THE NORTH.
UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND NOCTURNAL STRATUS.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...
DESPITE CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AND NEGLIGIBLE INHIBITION...THE
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST NORTHEAST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES
HAS REMAINED QUIET. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG IT WILL
DIMINISH WITH EACH PASSING HOUR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. THE
ACTIVITY NEAR ABILENE HAS BEGUN SURGING SOUTH AND SHOULD REMAIN
WELL WEST OF TAF SITES. HOWEVER...WESTWARD DEPARTURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED THIS EVENING.

NOCTURNAL STRATUS...
THURSDAY MORNING STRATUS WAS SLOW TO LIFT AND SCATTER...EVIDENCE
OF THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS QUICKLY RETURNED TO
THE REGION. DESPITE A LESSER LLJ TONIGHT...LITTLE ADVECTION WILL
BE NEEDED TO RE-ESTABLISH A LOW MVFR DECK. THE CEILINGS MAY BE
BRIEFLY IFR...BUT WILL ADDRESS THIS INTRICACY WITH THE 06Z
PACKAGE. THE DECK WILL LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY FRIDAY BUT WILL
LIKELY TAKE THE BULK OF THE DAY TO SCATTER.

25


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING STORM
COMPLEX IN OKLAHOMA IS CURRENTLY DRAPED NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR
NORTHWEST TO NEAR CHILDRESS. THIS BOUNDARY CAN EASILY BE SEEN ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE WITH CLEARING SUBSIDENT AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTH...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A 20Z FWD RAOB DOES SHOW
AN UNCAPPED AIRMASS WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT AND THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...CANT RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR IS
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO REALLY
HELP INITIATE UPWARD MOTIONS OF THE PARCELS. WILL THROW IN A
MENTION OF ISO T WITH A 10 POP BEFORE 00Z FOR AREAS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. IF A STORM DOES GO...IT WOULD LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH
A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND 0-6 SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS.

THE HIGH MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS ALL THE WAY TO CHILDRESS WHERE THE
FIRST SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN UPSLOPE FLOW. A
SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO...AND
AS THIS UPPER SUPPORT ENCOMPASSES MORE OF THE REGION...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS.
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERE GIVEN HIGH CAPE AND STRONG
SHEAR. THE STORM MOVEMENT TODAY WILL LIKELY BE SLOW...AND
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THESE
STORMS AWAY FROM OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...MOST STORMS WOULD BY THEN BE MUCH WEAKER WITH THE
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND AN INCREASING NOCTURNAL CAPPING
INVERSION. OUR BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE FROM ANY
COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT COULD DEVELOP IN OKLAHOMA...SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. THE TTU WRF DOES DEVELOP A COMPLEX IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AFTER 06Z AND SENDS IT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES
NEAR DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A WEAK
MID LEVEL LOW OVER WEST TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO TODAYS ACTIVITY VIA
LATENT HEAT RELEASE PROCESSES FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY MEANDER EAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
UPPER SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. WENT WITH A 20
POP ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS FOR TOMORROW AND 30 POP FOR THE
WESTERN ZONES...WHERE THE BEST LIFT SHOULD BE LOCATED. MID-LEVEL
FLOW TOMORROW WILL BE 5 TO 15 KNOTS WHICH LEADS TO ONLY 10 TO 20
KNOTS OF SHEAR. CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR 2000 J/KG SO THINK
SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL BUT CANT RULE OUT A MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL STORM BEFORE THE UPDRAFT DIES. WHAT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IS
MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN SLOW
MOVEMENTS. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW
NIGHT...AS STORMS THERE ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE STILL ONGOING AFTER
00Z. WILL CONTINUE THE 20 POP FOR ALL COUNTIES SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW
COULD STILL BE MEANDERING AROUND THE AREA...BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER
SUPPORT OR A SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY AND BEYOND...KEPT
THE REST OF THE FORECAST DRY. THIS LIFT FOR STORMS FRIDAY AND EVEN
SATURDAY IS DEPENDENT ON THERE BEING A LOT OF ACTIVITY FROM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS STORMS...SO THE FORECAST COULD CHANGE.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90S DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S. A STRONGER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SW CONUS
AROUND MID-WEEK AND THEN EJECT INTO THE PLAINS SOMETIME LATE NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE BEST
LIFT...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT
LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO ADD POPS...ONCE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
CAN BE GAINED REGARDING THE TIMING.

HAMPSHIRE



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  89  69  87  69 /  20  20  10  20  20
WACO, TX              70  89  69  87  68 /  10  20  10  20  10
PARIS, TX             65  82  62  85  66 /  30  20  10  20  20
DENTON, TX            68  88  67  88  69 /  20  20  10  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          67  87  66  87  68 /  20  20  10  20  20
DALLAS, TX            73  90  71  88  70 /  20  20  10  20  20
TERRELL, TX           70  88  67  87  68 /  20  20  10  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         71  89  68  87  68 /  10  20  10  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            69  88  68  86  66 /  10  20  10  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  88  66  86  66 /  20  30  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/58

000
FXUS64 KLUB 240204 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
904 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE REMAINDER OF THE TORNADO WATCH IN OUR
AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR MASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FA ON GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE OUTFLOW/FRONT. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN END
TO SFC-BASED CONVECTION LOCALLY. HOWEVER...STOUT SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ HAS RESULTED IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ABOVE
THE COOLER SFC AIR...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

AVIATION...
TSRA NOW SHIFTING WELL SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES AND LIKELY TO STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH. SMALL CHANCE TS COULD MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS KLBB
BY 03Z WHILE SOME INDICATIONS OF SH OR TS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE THAT COULD COME CLOSE TO KCDS. BOTH
SCENARIOS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. MEANWHILE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...
THIS EVENING...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG LOW-LVL JET WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS ACROSS THE S-SE
FOR A SLOW-MOVING MCS THAT COULD BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY LINGERING MORNING
CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST
OF THE FA AND LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS - HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH OF THE MIDDLE 80S IF MORNING CLOUD
COVER HANGS ON. AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES STILL APPEAR VALID ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. THE DRYLINE WILL BE BACKED WEST INTO NEW MEXICO SO
THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG SFC FORCING MECHANISM...BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE FAR
SRN PANHANDLE TO THE SW SPLNS. WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL FAVOR
WEAKLY ORGANIZED SLOW-MOVING STORMS. SVR HAIL AND WIND WILL STILL BE
A THREAT WITH LARGE INSTABILITY.

LONG TERM...
MINIMAL UPDATES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN LIGHT OF IMPENDING
SEVERE WX THREAT. AN ACTIVE DRYLINE IS STILL A GOOD BET EACH DAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER A WEAKLY UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW REGIME.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY BY MIDWEEK AS A MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH
EJECTS OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
DRYLINE WILL RESIDE AS THE GFS FAVORS A FASTER WAVE AND MORE
EASTERLY DRYLINE VERSUS A SLOWER WAVE AND MORE WESTERLY DRYLINE
LONGITUDE PER THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS. SEASONABLE
TEMPS OVERALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        59  86  60  81  60 /  40  50  30  20  20
TULIA         63  84  62  81  61 /  40  50  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     64  85  63  81  62 /  40  50  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     64  86  64  81  61 /  40  50  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       66  84  65  82  64 /  40  50  30  20  20
DENVER CITY   63  86  64  81  61 /  30  50  30  20  20
BROWNFIELD    64  86  65  82  62 /  50  50  30  20  20
CHILDRESS     65  84  66  83  66 /  40  30  30  20  20
SPUR          67  82  66  82  64 /  40  50  30  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  84  67  83  68 /  40  30  40  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07

000
FXUS64 KMAF 240156 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
856 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE CANCELLED PORTIONS OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 214 AND TORNADO WATCH
213 EARLY AND WILL LET REMAINDER OF THE FAR E AND S CWFA THAT ARE STILL
IN THE WATCHES EXPIRE AT 10 PM. TSTMS ARE STILL ACROSS THE E PB
ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SOME. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ARE STILL ACROSS THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
POSSIBLE NEXT FEW ACROSS PB MAINLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE
BOUNDARY. WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND 10 PM FOR EXPIRATION
WATCHES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
FOCUS THIS FORECAST IS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS SOME SEVERE
AROUND THE AREA. FOR THE NEAR TERM THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
AT TAF SITES IN MINIMAL. STILL WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS THRU 02Z-05Z
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH TSTMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE
LATER FRI PM AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3 KJ/KG
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
TRANS PECOS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. MID LEVEL LIFT IS
PRESENT WITH GOOD OMEGA VALUES AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING NEAR THE
AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. A
TORNADO WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
PM CDT. THE SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE THE ONLY
PROHIBITING FACTOR KEEPING STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.
MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING NEAR CHILDRESS TX LATE
THIS EVENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
STORM COMPLEX MAY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS NEW MODEL
DATA COMES IN THIS EVENING.

EXPECT MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND UPPER LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP.  LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE LESS IMPRESSIVE
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1 INCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE CONVECTION.  KEPT RAIN AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL LIFT NEAR THE
AREA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.  THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.  RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FOR SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LEAVING THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.  A DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO
STORMS WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD DURING MID WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING MORE
POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING UPPER LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DECREASING HEIGHTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO HOT NEXT WEEK.  MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  85  68  84  /  30  30  40  20
BIG SPRING TX              69  86  69  85  /  50  30  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                69  90  65  92  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  74  87  69  88  /  20  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  87  67  86  /  20  30  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  84  61  87  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   67  87  64  86  /  20  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   57  81  57  85  /  20  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  85  69  84  /  30  30  40  20
ODESSA TX                  70  84  69  85  /  30  30  40  20
WINK TX                    71  86  69  93  /  20  30  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KEWX 240137
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
837 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSIION...
CONTINUED TRENDS WITH ONGOING FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A LARGE SCALE 700 TO 200 HPA TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THE MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AGAIN BY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  AFTER
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY
WITH TIME CARRY THIS PATTERN NORTH. A SERIES OF S/W TROFS FROM
500 TO 300 HPA ARE FORECAST TO MOVE JUST NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY...CAUSING LOWER HEIGHTS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALOFT...AND CREATING A SLIGHTLY MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHRA AND TSRA TO DEVELOP. AS A RESULT
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WEST PART OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST DATA
AVAILABLE AT HAND EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF IH35...AS INDICATED BY 00Z MAY 24TH
MAPS AND INPUT FROM THE 18Z AND SOME OF THE 00Z FORECAST AND ECMWF
DATA AVAILABLE. THE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
SATURDAY...THEREFORE...SHOWED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUING NEAR AND WEST OF IH35 ON SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS SLOWLY DEVELOP...AS RIDGING ALOFT INCREASES
AGAIN. AS THE STORM TRACK COMES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER THE WEST PART OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND OVER ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY THURSDAY. MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS DIFFER ON
HOW LONG THE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MOST SOLUTIONS BEYOND THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF JUNE...JUNE 1ST AND 2ND...SUGGEST THAT RIDGING COULD
INCREASE AGAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...IF
THE STORM TRACK DOES MOVE NORTH...AS FORECASTS CURRENTLY SHOW.
CONTINUED TRENDS WITH ONGOING FORECASTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL
REDEVELOP BY 05-06Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND SPREAD WEST TO
KDRT AROUND 08-09Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 17-18Z. SE-SLY SFC
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE TO 8 TO 12 KTS
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
AND MOVE TOWARD THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THESE
STORMS TO MOVE INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. FORECAST CAPE IS AROUND 2000
J/KG...SO POTENTIAL IS FOR SOME STORMS TO BE SEVERE. WE HAVE
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY UNTIL 10
PM. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL BE RAIN FREE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM
THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST AIR IN PLACE. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE AND THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATURDAY THE SLIGHT CHANCE WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST AS FAR AS
I10/I37. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY
ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. THEN THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE IN
THE REPEATING PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS AND CLEARING
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND BE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE
NEXT CHANGE WILL COME WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  93  73  94  71 /  10  20  20  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  72  93  69 /  10  20  20  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  92  71  93  70 /  10  20  20  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  89  70  90  68 /  10  20  20  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  90  74  92  73 /  20  30  30  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  89  71  91  69 /  10  20  20  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  94  74  93  71 /  10  20  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  73  92  70 /  10  20  20  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  74  91  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  92  74  92  72 /  10  20  20  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  92  74  92  71 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25/01
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08/05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

000
FXUS64 KSJT 240135
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
835 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD BROWN...COLEMAN..CONCHO...MCCULLOCH SAN SABA
COUNTIES INTO SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 214 UNTIL 10 PM..

STORM COMPLEX IN CALLAHAN AND SHACKELFORD COUNTIES CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD TOWARD COLEMAN AND BROWN COUNTIES...WITH EXTREME
DAMAGING WINDS.

04

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION/

AVIATION...
LARGE STORM COMPLEX JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ABILENE WILL
AFFECT THE ABILENE AIRPORT BEGINNING AROUND 7 PM...WITH HIGH
WINDS CLOSE TO 50 KTS THROUGH 830 PM.

COMPLEX WILL END BEFORE AFFECTING SOUTHERN TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS
RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND DISSIPATE MID
MORNING.

04

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...
OBVIOUS ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG COUNTRY
AREA...WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
CONCHO VALLEY...AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA...WITH ONE CLUSTER NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND A MORE
INTENSE AREA SOUTHWEST OF CHILDRESS WHERE TORNADO WARNINGS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR BIG COUNTRY
COUNTIES. WHILE WIND SHEAR DECREASES IN MAGNITUDE AS ONE MOVES
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE INITIAL CONVECTION...INSTABILITY ACTUALLY
INCREASES. SO...WHILE STORMS MAY NOT BE TAPPING INTO THE BEST SHEAR
AS THEY ENTER OUR AREA...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH AS SFC BASED CAPE VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 J/KG.

FARTHER SOUTH...CAPE VALUES FROM THE SOUTHERN BIG COUNTRY INTO THE
CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU RANGE FROM 4500 TO 5000
J/KG...SO THERE IS EVEN MORE INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO. HOWEVER...THE
CAP STRENGTHENS AS ONE MOVES EAST...SO THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...SHEAR
ALSO WEAKENS...SO STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO ROTATE AS THEY
INITIALLY DEVELOP...SUSTAINED ORGANIZATION IS QUESTIONABLE.

AS THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...UPSCALE
DEVELOPMENT INTO CLUSTERS OF STORMS OR WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS/S IS
EXPECTED...AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THAT IN MIND...AND
THE FACT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE AROUND...HAVE
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA. ALSO...WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL DISRUPTING THINGS...HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE INHERITED UPPER 80S FOR THE AREA.

20

LONG TERM...
THE CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLY ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. EXACTLY WHERE STORMS DEVELOP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT ARE LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTION
COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT FOR NOW I HAVE LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY AS THE MAIN FOCUS HAS BEEN ON THE FIRST 48 HOURS.

DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ASHORE THE WEST COAST TUESDAY...THEN APPROACHING
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUE...SO FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT POPS JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT. POPS
MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED ON FUTURE SHIFTS IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

DANIELS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  70  88  68  85  68 /  50  30  30  20  20
SAN ANGELO  71  88  68  87  68 /  40  30  30  20  20
JUNCTION  71  88  69  86  68 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99

000
FXUS64 KFWD 240027 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
727 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND NOCTURNAL STRATUS.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...
DESPITE CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AND NEGLIGIBLE INHIBITION...THE
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST NORTHEAST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES
HAS REMAINED QUIET. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG IT WILL
DIMINISH WITH EACH PASSING HOUR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. THE
ACTIVITY NEAR ABILENE HAS BEGUN SURGING SOUTH AND SHOULD REMAIN
WELL WEST OF TAF SITES. HOWEVER...WESTWARD DEPARTURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED THIS EVENING.

NOCTURNAL STRATUS...
THURSDAY MORNING STRATUS WAS SLOW TO LIFT AND SCATTER...EVIDENCE
OF THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS QUICKLY RETURNED TO
THE REGION. DESPITE A LESSER LLJ TONIGHT...LITTLE ADVECTION WILL
BE NEEDED TO RE-ESTABLISH A LOW MVFR DECK. THE CEILINGS MAY BE
BRIEFLY IFR...BUT WILL ADDRESS THIS INTRICACY WITH THE 06Z
PACKAGE. THE DECK WILL LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY FRIDAY BUT WILL
LIKELY TAKE THE BULK OF THE DAY TO SCATTER.

25

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING STORM
COMPLEX IN OKLAHOMA IS CURRENTLY DRAPED NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR
NORTHWEST TO NEAR CHILDRESS. THIS BOUNDARY CAN EASILY BE SEEN ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE WITH CLEARING SUBSIDENT AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTH...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A 20Z FWD RAOB DOES SHOW
AN UNCAPPED AIRMASS WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT AND THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...CANT RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR IS
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO REALLY
HELP INITIATE UPWARD MOTIONS OF THE PARCELS. WILL THROW IN A
MENTION OF ISO T WITH A 10 POP BEFORE 00Z FOR AREAS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. IF A STORM DOES GO...IT WOULD LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH
A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND 0-6 SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS.

THE HIGH MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS ALL THE WAY TO CHILDRESS WHERE THE
FIRST SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN UPSLOPE FLOW. A
SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO...AND
AS THIS UPPER SUPPORT ENCOMPASSES MORE OF THE REGION...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS.
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERE GIVEN HIGH CAPE AND STRONG
SHEAR. THE STORM MOVEMENT TODAY WILL LIKELY BE SLOW...AND
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THESE
STORMS AWAY FROM OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...MOST STORMS WOULD BY THEN BE MUCH WEAKER WITH THE
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND AN INCREASING NOCTURNAL CAPPING
INVERSION. OUR BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE FROM ANY
COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT COULD DEVELOP IN OKLAHOMA...SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. THE TTU WRF DOES DEVELOP A COMPLEX IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AFTER 06Z AND SENDS IT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES
NEAR DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A WEAK
MID LEVEL LOW OVER WEST TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO TODAYS ACTIVITY VIA
LATENT HEAT RELEASE PROCESSES FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY MEANDER EAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
UPPER SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. WENT WITH A 20
POP ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS FOR TOMORROW AND 30 POP FOR THE
WESTERN ZONES...WHERE THE BEST LIFT SHOULD BE LOCATED. MID-LEVEL
FLOW TOMORROW WILL BE 5 TO 15 KNOTS WHICH LEADS TO ONLY 10 TO 20
KNOTS OF SHEAR. CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR 2000 J/KG SO THINK
SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL BUT CANT RULE OUT A MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL STORM BEFORE THE UPDRAFT DIES. WHAT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IS
MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN SLOW
MOVEMENTS. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW
NIGHT...AS STORMS THERE ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE STILL ONGOING AFTER
00Z. WILL CONTINUE THE 20 POP FOR ALL COUNTIES SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW
COULD STILL BE MEANDERING AROUND THE AREA...BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER
SUPPORT OR A SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY AND BEYOND...KEPT
THE REST OF THE FORECAST DRY. THIS LIFT FOR STORMS FRIDAY AND EVEN
SATURDAY IS DEPENDENT ON THERE BEING A LOT OF ACTIVITY FROM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS STORMS...SO THE FORECAST COULD CHANGE.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90S DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S. A STRONGER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SW CONUS
AROUND MID-WEEK AND THEN EJECT INTO THE PLAINS SOMETIME LATE NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE BEST
LIFT...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT
LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO ADD POPS...ONCE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
CAN BE GAINED REGARDING THE TIMING.

HAMPSHIRE

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  89  69  87  69 /  20  20  10  20  20
WACO, TX              70  89  69  87  68 /  10  20  10  20  10
PARIS, TX             65  82  62  85  66 /  20  20  10  20  20
DENTON, TX            68  88  67  88  69 /  20  20  10  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          67  87  66  87  68 /  20  20  10  20  20
DALLAS, TX            73  90  71  88  70 /  20  20  10  20  20
TERRELL, TX           70  88  67  87  68 /  20  20  10  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         71  89  68  87  68 /  10  20  10  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            69  88  68  86  66 /  10  20  10  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  88  66  86  66 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/58

000
FXUS64 KHGX 240003
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
703 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN UNCHANGED VERY MOIST LOWER FEW THOUSAND FOOT LAYER WILL HAVE
AREAWIDE IFR CEILINGS (ISOLATED LIFR) FORMING SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC VISIBILITY-RESTRICTING HZ/BR JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE...LOCALLY UNDER A MILE OVER MORE RURAL HUBS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM 13Z THROUGH 17Z...EAST-VEERING-
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KT AFTERNOON BREEZE WITH A THICKER HIGH OVERCAST
FROM ANTICIPATED WESTERN TX THUNDERSTORM (ANVIL) CI BLOW-OFF. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR QUIET SO FAR THIS AFTN BUT RELUCTANT TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE
MENTION OF PCPN FOR THIS EVENING. WE SHOULD BE REACHING CONVECTIVE
TEMPS SHORTLY.

OTHERWISE NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE GOING FCST OF MAINLY AFTN/
EARLY EVENING PCPN THESE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK UPPER RIDGING COUPLED
WITH SHORTWAVES FROM THE WEST AND THIS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS
SETTLED OVER THE REGION BEING THE MAIN FACTORS. THIS PATTERN LOOKS
TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK OR SO. AT THAT TIME...MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO DIFFER. ECMWF A BIT SLOWER (BUT STRONGER) WITH THIS
NEXT UPPER TROF THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT WEDS/THURS. ATTM...OPTING TO
KEEP WITH GFS AS IT HAS BEEN VERIFYING BETTER OF LATE. 41

&&

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TOWARDS THE EAST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE EASTWARDS. LOW PRESSURE IN WEST TEXAS
THOUGH WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLANES. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TIDES LATE NEXT WEEK. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  90  70  90  69 /  20  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  90  71  89  71 /  20  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  83  73  84  74 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31

000
FXUS64 KAMA 232353
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
653 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LOOKS
DOUBTFUL AFTER THE ONE STORM NORTH OF KAMA DISSIPATES.

THE NEXT AVIATION CONCERN BECOMES LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL TONIGHT. HAVE
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS AT KGUY...WHERE CIGS CONTINUE
TO BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF THE MVFR RANGE. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...BUT THEN EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO TAKE HOLD
AGAIN...LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN AT KGUY BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT
DHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THINGS
VFR AT KAMA AND KDHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
AT THESE SITES AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS
POINT.

GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH SOME AND VEER TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS THEN EXPECTED AGAIN BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS WE
HEAD INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD. THE STALLED FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA ...AND A DRY LINE INTERSECTING THIS FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...WILL
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUSES FOR CONVECTION. THEREFORE THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND PWAT VALUES AT LEAST IN THE 75TH PERCENTILE RANGE MOVING INTO
THE AREA...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DECREASING
OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO THE
EXACT PLACEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION...AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
TODAY/S CONVECTION WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN THE COMING
DAYS. IN GENERAL...THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL BE FAVORED...WITH
1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE MAINLY IN THE WEST. A TALL AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL FAVOR MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAN LARGE HAIL OR TORNADO THREAT.

SUNDAY...
THE DRYLINE ON SUNDAY SHOULD PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...SETTING UP
MORE LIKELY NEAR OR EAST OF AMARILLO. AGAIN...1500-2500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE AND A TALLER SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGEST A HIGH RISK FOR
HEAVY RAIN.

NF

LONG TERM...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK...WITH AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE REGION REMAINS STATIONED BETWEEN AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS STATES/MS VALLEY. THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING...AND ALSO KEEP THE
DRYLINE FROM MIXING TOO FAR EAST. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY MIX FROM
EASTERN NM INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH DAY...POSSIBLY HANGING
UP IN EASTERN NM ON A COUPLE DAYS...PROVIDING A DAILY FOCUS FOR AT
LEAST A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE STORM CHANCES ON A GIVEN DAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE EVENTUAL EJECTION OF THE MAIN
WESTERN TROUGH...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE
TRENDED MORE CLOSELY TO THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF FOR NOW. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE MODEST ON MOST DAYS...LIKELY INCREASING
LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN THE TROUGH DOES EVENTUALLY EJECT.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING IN EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT OF A FEW
SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
TO UPPER 60S.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK AS RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KCRP 232350
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
650 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AFTER SUNSET AS
LOW STRATUS FORMS AND LOWERS. EXPECT STRATUS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...OCNLY BECMG IFR IN SOME SPOTS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING AND BECOME VFR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WARM AND HAZY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS BENEATH WEAK MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG SIERRA MADRE SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE BRINGING COMPLEX OF STORMS OUT OF WEST TEXAS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT THE STORMS WOULD REACH THE LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES AND
WILL JUST HAVE A SILENT 10 POP OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SHORTWAVE WEAKENING THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY...AND SLIGHT MID LEVEL COOLING OCCURRING
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. MOISTURE AXIS WILL DRIFT SLIGHT EAST
AS WELL...INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WEAK FORCING COULD GENERATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS LA SALLE AND
WEBB COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS TOMORROW...BUT WARM WITH PATCHY HAZE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY. WITH
MOISTURE CONTINUING OUT WEST WILL HOLD ONTO THE 20 POPS FOR THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. NOT MUCH SUPPORT IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BUT THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY BE
ABLE TO TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE RIDGE THEN
STRENGTHENS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH QUIET WEATHER AND
HOT TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN US IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST BY MID WEEK AS WELL. WHILE
ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS LOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD THEY ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW. THE MORE
REASONABLE GFS SOLUTION LIFTS THE LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND INTO THE PLAINS STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS THE TROUGH
UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH...INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. CANADIAN MODEL IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE GFS.  NOT READY TO INTRODUCE ANY POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR FUTURE UPDATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  90  77  91  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          73  88  73  90  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            77  95  76  94  75  /  10  20  20  20  10
ALICE             76  90  76  91  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          77  85  77  87  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75  95  76  96  72  /  10  20  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        77  90  76  91  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  84  76  85  76  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JV/71...AVIATION

000
FXUS64 KMAF 232349
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
649 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOCUS THIS FORECAST IS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS SOME SEVERE
AROUND THE AREA. FOR THE NEAR TERM THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
AT TAF SITES IN MINIMAL. STILL WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS THRU 02Z-05Z
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH TSTMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE
LATER FRI PM AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3 KJ/KG
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
TRANS PECOS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. MID LEVEL LIFT IS
PRESENT WITH GOOD OMEGA VALUES AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING NEAR THE
AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. A
TORNADO WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
PM CDT. THE SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE THE ONLY
PROHIBITING FACTOR KEEPING STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.
MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING NEAR CHILDRESS TX LATE
THIS EVENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
STORM COMPLEX MAY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS NEW MODEL
DATA COMES IN THIS EVENING.

EXPECT MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND UPPER LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP.  LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE LESS IMPRESSIVE
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1 INCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE CONVECTION.  KEPT RAIN AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL LIFT NEAR THE
AREA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.  THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.  RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FOR SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LEAVING THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.  A DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO
STORMS WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD DURING MID WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING MORE
POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING UPPER LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DECREASING HEIGHTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO HOT NEXT WEEK.  MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KBRO 232339
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
639 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS WANING AT THIS MOMENT AND HIGH
CIRRUS FROM TSTORMS TO THE WEST IS BEGINNING TO WORK INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND WORK BACK INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING. CIG HEIGHTS AROUND 1500 FEET
EXPECTED WITH BRIEF BOUTS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING HAS QUICKLY BUILT NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY...HOLDING IN PLACE THE DRY AIR ABOVE 5000 FEET. BELOW
THIS...SFC HIGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE LONG SE TAP FROM THE GULF...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S AND DRAWING MORE SMOKE FROM THE SOUTH INTO TEXAS. DAYTIME
HEATING HAS BROUGHT THICKER DAYTIME CU FIELD...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
THIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...THE CLOUD DECK WILL RETURN
AND LOWER TO 1500 FEET. ALL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A WEAK
VORT RACING NWWD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE BIG BEND REGION
INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WILL BE DOMINATED TOO MUCH BY THE RIDGE...BUT THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM ON THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN
MEXICO WILL CLIP THE EDGES OF ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES...MAINLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. FEEL THAT THIS THREAT IS MINIMAL...SO HAVE KEPT ONLY
10 PERCENT CHANCES FOR THOSE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALSO ADDED 10
CHANCE FOR CAMERON COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY MAY HELP
SPARK A STREAMER SHOWER OR TWO LATER OVERNIGHT. /64/

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE BIG BEND TO THE
ARKLATEX SATURDAY.  WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...THIS FEATURE
COULD GENERATE A BIT OF CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR AREA.  THE BIG
QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND WHETHER ANY PRECIPITATION COULD WANDER INTO
NORTHERN/WESTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ON THE HIGH END OF NORMAL FOR LATE
MAY/EARLY JUNE...WITH FORECAST VALUES HOVERING AROND THE 1.5 INCH
MARK.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAY INDICATE A BIT OF INSTABILITY...BUT
THEY ALSO SHOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PRESENT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.  BY THE TIME THE INVERSION WEAKENS...I FEEL THE /WEAKENING/
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON
OUR WEATHER LOCALLY.

EVEN WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY TO SEE A BIT OF CONVECTION WANDER SOUTHWARD TOWARD
NORTHERN PARTS OF ZAPATA OR JIM HOGG COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS
CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED OVER THE COASTAL AREAS.  GIVEN MY CONFIDENCE IN
ALL OF THIS HAPPENING...I HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW-GRADE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO THESE AREAS.  RIGHT NOW...I WILL KEEP
THE ODDS OF SEEING SHOWERS UNDER 15 PERCENT.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  WHEN THIS OCCURS...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS.  THIS MAY
ALLOW SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA BY MEMORIAL
DAY.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT...I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...EVEN AS THE RIDGE STARTS SLIDING EAST BY DAY
6/7.  ONGOING FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO BE IN THE
BALLPARK...WITH ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS MADE HERE OR THERE.  /53/

MARINE...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
DOMINANT SFC HIGH ACROSS THE GULF WILL CONTINUE THE SE FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LACK OF AN OPPOSING LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE NW
WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN
TURN KEEPING SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET. LOWER VISIBILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NOTED ACROSS MARINE AREAS FROM SMOKE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. /64/

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
WITH COMBINED SEAS AVERAGING 4 FEET OR LESS.  A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT TO EXERCISE
CAUTION OR THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.  A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN OVER THE MARINE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS
THIS WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION HAPPENING...
ANY PROBABILITIES WILL BE KEPT UNDER 15 PERCENT.  /53/

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/61

000
FXUS64 KSJT 232337
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
637 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013


.DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION/

&&

.AVIATION...
LARGE STORM COMPLEX JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ABILENE WILL
AFFECT THE ABILENE AIRPORT BEGINNING AROUND 7 PM...WITH HIGH
WINDS CLOSE TO 50 KTS THROUGH 830 PM.

COMPLEX WILL END BEFORE AFFECTING SOUTHERN TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS
RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND DISSIPATE MID
MORNING.

04
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...
OBVIOUS ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG COUNTRY
AREA...WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
CONCHO VALLEY...AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA...WITH ONE CLUSTER NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND A MORE
INTENSE AREA SOUTHWEST OF CHILDRESS WHERE TORNADO WARNINGS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR BIG COUNTRY
COUNTIES. WHILE WIND SHEAR DECREASES IN MAGNITUDE AS ONE MOVES
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE INITIAL CONVECTION...INSTABILITY ACTUALLY
INCREASES. SO...WHILE STORMS MAY NOT BE TAPPING INTO THE BEST SHEAR
AS THEY ENTER OUR AREA...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH AS SFC BASED CAPE VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 J/KG.

FARTHER SOUTH...CAPE VALUES FROM THE SOUTHERN BIG COUNTRY INTO THE
CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU RANGE FROM 4500 TO 5000
J/KG...SO THERE IS EVEN MORE INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO. HOWEVER...THE
CAP STRENGTHENS AS ONE MOVES EAST...SO THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...SHEAR
ALSO WEAKENS...SO STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO ROTATE AS THEY
INITIALLY DEVELOP...SUSTAINED ORGANIZATION IS QUESTIONABLE.

AS THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...UPSCALE
DEVELOPMENT INTO CLUSTERS OF STORMS OR WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS/S IS
EXPECTED...AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THAT IN MIND...AND
THE FACT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE AROUND...HAVE
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA. ALSO...WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL DISRUPTING THINGS...HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE INHERITED UPPER 80S FOR THE AREA.

20

LONG TERM...
THE CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLY ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. EXACTLY WHERE STORMS DEVELOP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT ARE LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTION
COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT FOR NOW I HAVE LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY AS THE MAIN FOCUS HAS BEEN ON THE FIRST 48 HOURS.

DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ASHORE THE WEST COAST TUESDAY...THEN APPROACHING
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUE...SO FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT POPS JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT. POPS
MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED ON FUTURE SHIFTS IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

DANIELS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  70  88  68  85  68 /  30  30  30  20  20
SAN ANGELO  71  88  68  87  68 /  30  30  30  20  20
JUNCTION  71  88  69  86  68 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04

000
FXUS64 KEWX 232337
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
637 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL
REDEVELOP BY 05-06Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND SPREAD WEST TO
KDRT AROUND 08-09Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 17-18Z. SE-SLY SFC
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE TO 8 TO 12 KTS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
AND MOVE TOWARD THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THESE
STORMS TO MOVE INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. FORECAST CAPE IS AROUND 2000
J/KG...SO POTENTIAL IS FOR SOME STORMS TO BE SEVERE. WE HAVE
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY UNTIL 10
PM. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL BE RAIN FREE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM
THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST AIR IN PLACE. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE AND THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATURDAY THE SLIGHT CHANCE WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST AS FAR AS
I10/I37. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY
ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. THEN THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE IN
THE REPEATING PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS AND CLEARING
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND BE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE
NEXT CHANGE WILL COME WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  93  73  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  72  93  69 /  10  10  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  92  71  93  70 /  10  10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  89  70  90  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  94  76  94  73 /  20  20  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  89  71  91  69 /  10  10  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  94  74  93  71 /  10  10  10  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  73  92  70 /  10  10  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  74  91  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  92  74  92  72 /  10  10  10  20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  92  74  92  71 /  10  10  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

000
FXUS64 KSJT 232337
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
637 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013


.DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION/

&&

.AVIATION...
LARGE STORM COMPLEX JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ABILENE WILL
AFFECT THE ABILENE AIRPORT BEGINNING AROUND 7 PM...WITH HIGH
WINDS CLOSE TO 50 KTS THROUGH 830 PM.

COMPLEX WILL END BEFORE AFFECTING SOUTHERN TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS
RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND DISSIPATE MID
MORNING.

04
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...
OBVIOUS ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG COUNTRY
AREA...WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
CONCHO VALLEY...AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA...WITH ONE CLUSTER NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND A MORE
INTENSE AREA SOUTHWEST OF CHILDRESS WHERE TORNADO WARNINGS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR BIG COUNTRY
COUNTIES. WHILE WIND SHEAR DECREASES IN MAGNITUDE AS ONE MOVES
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE INITIAL CONVECTION...INSTABILITY ACTUALLY
INCREASES. SO...WHILE STORMS MAY NOT BE TAPPING INTO THE BEST SHEAR
AS THEY ENTER OUR AREA...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH AS SFC BASED CAPE VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 J/KG.

FARTHER SOUTH...CAPE VALUES FROM THE SOUTHERN BIG COUNTRY INTO THE
CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU RANGE FROM 4500 TO 5000
J/KG...SO THERE IS EVEN MORE INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO. HOWEVER...THE
CAP STRENGTHENS AS ONE MOVES EAST...SO THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...SHEAR
ALSO WEAKENS...SO STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO ROTATE AS THEY
INITIALLY DEVELOP...SUSTAINED ORGANIZATION IS QUESTIONABLE.

AS THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...UPSCALE
DEVELOPMENT INTO CLUSTERS OF STORMS OR WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS/S IS
EXPECTED...AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THAT IN MIND...AND
THE FACT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE AROUND...HAVE
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA. ALSO...WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL DISRUPTING THINGS...HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE INHERITED UPPER 80S FOR THE AREA.

20

LONG TERM...
THE CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLY ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. EXACTLY WHERE STORMS DEVELOP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT ARE LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTION
COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT FOR NOW I HAVE LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY AS THE MAIN FOCUS HAS BEEN ON THE FIRST 48 HOURS.

DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ASHORE THE WEST COAST TUESDAY...THEN APPROACHING
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUE...SO FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT POPS JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT. POPS
MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED ON FUTURE SHIFTS IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

DANIELS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  70  88  68  85  68 /  30  30  30  20  20
SAN ANGELO  71  88  68  87  68 /  30  30  30  20  20
JUNCTION  71  88  69  86  68 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04

000
FXUS64 KEWX 232337
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
637 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL
REDEVELOP BY 05-06Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND SPREAD WEST TO
KDRT AROUND 08-09Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 17-18Z. SE-SLY SFC
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE TO 8 TO 12 KTS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
AND MOVE TOWARD THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THESE
STORMS TO MOVE INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. FORECAST CAPE IS AROUND 2000
J/KG...SO POTENTIAL IS FOR SOME STORMS TO BE SEVERE. WE HAVE
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY UNTIL 10
PM. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL BE RAIN FREE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM
THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST AIR IN PLACE. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE AND THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATURDAY THE SLIGHT CHANCE WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST AS FAR AS
I10/I37. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY
ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. THEN THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE IN
THE REPEATING PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS AND CLEARING
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND BE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE
NEXT CHANGE WILL COME WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  93  73  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  72  93  69 /  10  10  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  92  71  93  70 /  10  10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  89  70  90  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  94  76  94  73 /  20  20  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  89  71  91  69 /  10  10  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  94  74  93  71 /  10  10  10  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  73  92  70 /  10  10  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  74  91  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  92  74  92  72 /  10  10  10  20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  92  74  92  71 /  10  10  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

000
FXUS64 KLUB 232334
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
634 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...
TSRA NOW SHIFTING WELL SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES AND LIKELY TO STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH. SMALL CHANCE TS COULD MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS KLBB
BY 03Z WHILE SOME INDICATIONS OF SH OR TS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE THAT COULD COME CLOSE TO KCDS. BOTH
SCENARIOS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. MEANWHILE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...
THIS EVENING...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG LOW-LVL JET WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS ACROSS THE S-SE
FOR A SLOW-MOVING MCS THAT COULD BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY LINGERING MORNING
CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST
OF THE FA AND LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS - HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH OF THE MIDDLE 80S IF MORNING CLOUD
COVER HANGS ON. AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES STILL APPEAR VALID ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. THE DRYLINE WILL BE BACKED WEST INTO NEW MEXICO SO
THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG SFC FORCING MECHANISM...BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE FAR
SRN PANHANDLE TO THE SW SPLNS. WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL FAVOR
WEAKLY ORGANIZED SLOW-MOVING STORMS. SVR HAIL AND WIND WILL STILL BE
A THREAT WITH LARGE INSTABILITY.

LONG TERM...
MINIMAL UPDATES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN LIGHT OF IMPENDING
SEVERE WX THREAT. AN ACTIVE DRYLINE IS STILL A GOOD BET EACH DAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER A WEAKLY UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW REGIME.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY BY MIDWEEK AS A MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH
EJECTS OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
DRYLINE WILL RESIDE AS THE GFS FAVORS A FASTER WAVE AND MORE
EASTERLY DRYLINE VERSUS A SLOWER WAVE AND MORE WESTERLY DRYLINE
LONGITUDE PER THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS. SEASONABLE
TEMPS OVERALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        59  86  60  81  60 /  40  50  30  20  20
TULIA         63  84  62  81  61 /  50  50  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     64  85  63  81  62 /  60  50  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     64  86  64  81  61 /  50  50  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       66  84  65  82  63 /  60  50  30  20  20
DENVER CITY   63  86  64  81  61 /  30  50  30  20  20
BROWNFIELD    64  86  65  82  62 /  50  50  30  20  20
CHILDRESS     65  84  66  83  66 /  60  30  30  20  20
SPUR          67  82  66  82  64 /  60  50  30  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  84  67  83  68 /  60  30  40  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07

000
FXUS64 KLUB 232113
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
413 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...
THIS EVENING...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG LOW-LVL JET WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS ACROSS THE S-SE
FOR A SLOW-MOVING MCS THAT COULD BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY LINGERING MORNING
CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST
OF THE FA AND LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS - HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH OF THE MIDDLE 80S IF MORNING CLOUD
COVER HANGS ON. AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES STILL APPEAR VALID ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. THE DRYLINE WILL BE BACKED WEST INTO NEW MEXICO SO
THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG SFC FORCING MECHANISM...BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE FAR
SRN PANHANDLE TO THE SW SPLNS. WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL FAVOR
WEAKLY ORGANIZED SLOW-MOVING STORMS. SVR HAIL AND WIND WILL STILL BE
A THREAT WITH LARGE INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MINIMAL UPDATES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN LIGHT OF IMPENDING
SEVERE WX THREAT. AN ACTIVE DRYLINE IS STILL A GOOD BET EACH DAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER A WEAKLY UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW REGIME.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY BY MIDWEEK AS A MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH
EJECTS OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
DRYLINE WILL RESIDE AS THE GFS FAVORS A FASTER WAVE AND MORE
EASTERLY DRYLINE VERSUS A SLOWER WAVE AND MORE WESTERLY DRYLINE
LONGITUDE PER THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS. SEASONABLE
TEMPS OVERALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        59  86  60  81  60 /  40  50  30  20  20
TULIA         63  84  62  81  61 /  50  50  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     64  85  63  81  62 /  60  50  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     64  86  64  81  61 /  50  50  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       66  84  65  82  64 /  60  50  30  20  20
DENVER CITY   63  86  64  81  61 /  30  50  30  20  20
BROWNFIELD    64  86  65  82  62 /  50  50  30  20  20
CHILDRESS     65  84  66  83  66 /  60  30  30  20  20
SPUR          67  82  66  82  64 /  60  50  30  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  84  67  83  68 /  60  30  40  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ029-035-036.

&&

$$

33/93

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 232047
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
247 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY OVERNIGHT...AS GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
IS DRAWN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BORDERLAND. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH STRONG DOWN BURST WINDS...HAIL AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AS THE MAIN THREATS. THE THREAT FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER CONTINUES ALONG AND MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN ENDING THEREAFTER AS SOUTHWEST WINDS DRIVE
THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. DRY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY HIGH AMPLITUDE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE
COUNTRY AND SOUTHWEST REGION...WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S.A. THIS FEATURE IS SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST...WITH THE EFFECT OF ITS
APPROACH BEGINNING TO DRAW GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO THE
BORDERLAND AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE NOW TO
OUR EAST OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.A. AND THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...IS
CARRYING A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE
AREA ENHANCING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY.
TOTALS TOTALS OVER 50C AND LIFTED INDICES BELOW -3 ARE FORECAST
FOR HUDSPETH COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG WITH SIMILAR TT AND LI VALUES...ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY FOR MOST OF HUDSPETH COUNTY AND NORTH INTO EASTERN OTERO
COUNTY. GIVEN INTENSE DAYTIME HEATING...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...25-30 KTS OF WIND SHEAR THROUGH 6 KM IN THE 0-6 KM
AGL...ANY ENHANCEMENT BY ADDITION SHORT WAVE IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
ELEVATE STORM INTENSITY TO SEVERE LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY FOR AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS MENTIONED ABOVE.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES ENTER AND ROTATE
AROUND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE ROCKIES. THE FLOW
WILL DEEPEN...WITH A DEEP WARM DRY MIXING LAYER EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WINDIEST DAY...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AT LEAST 20-30 MPH EXPECTED FOR THAT TIME.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGINS TO DIVERGE WILDLY DIVERGE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE GFS PAINTING A DRIER SCENARIO. HERE BROAD MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST AND THE
NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE IS DRIVEN FURTHER
EAST OF OUR AREA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...FORECASTS A MUCH
WETTER SCENARIO...WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN AND CUT OFF LOW
SOUTH OF ARIZONA BY MIDWEEK. THIS WOULD SERVE TO DRAW
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE OUR WAY WITH A MUCH
DEEPER SOUTHERLY TAP. HAVE LITTLE IN WAY OF CONFIDENCE WITH THE
EC SOLUTION FOR THAT HIGH OF AMPLITUDE IN PATTERN THIS TIME OF
YEAR. OPTING FOR STRONG BIAS TOWARDS DRIER GFS SCENARIO...WHICH
CLIMATE-WISE...IS MORE REALISTIC FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS
REMAIN FORECAST WELL ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/00Z-25/00Z.
VFR CONDS THRU PD. UNTIL 15Z P6SM FEW120-150 SCT-BKN200-250 WITH
WEST WINDS 6-12KTS ALONG AND WEST OF A KALM-KELP LINE. EAST OF THE
LINE EXPECT FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200 WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SSE
UP TO 10KTS.  AFT 15Z ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10KTS WITH FEW-SCT060-080 SCT-BKN150-200 WITH ISOLD TO
SCT 3-5SM TSRA BKN040 WITH GREATEST COVERAGE THE FURTHER EAST YOU
GO. TO THE WEST...SW WINDS 10-15KTS FEW-SCT120-150.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...DRY LIGHTNING RISK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
...CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ALLOWING A DRYLINE TO MOVE BACK AND FORTH OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FIRE DISTRICT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
SOME ISOLATED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN SACS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE THE THREAT FOR DRY
LIGHTNING INCREASE FROM SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS SOUTHWEST INTO EL PASO
COUNTY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY TO KEEP
MOST STORMS WET. NO LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEK
WITH EVERY AFTERNOON SEEING AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS. SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE LIKELY SO ANY DAY STARTING SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY COULD POTENTIALLY SEE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS DEVELOP. AT
THIS TIME...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 70  93  68  94  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA           66  89  64  91  63 /  20  30  30  20  10
LAS CRUCES              61  92  59  93  59 /   0  10  10  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              61  91  59  92  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              49  69  46  70  46 /  20  30  30  30  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   64  89  60  90  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             55  91  53  91  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  57  93  54  94  54 /   0  10   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               57  91  55  91  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      68  92  68  93  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
DELL CITY               60  91  57  93  58 /  20  30  30  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            68  94  66  96  67 /  10  20  20  10  10
LOMA LINDA              59  86  57  87  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
FABENS                  69  93  66  94  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
SANTA TERESA            63  92  62  93  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          69  90  67  91  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           52  90  52  91  52 /  10  10  10  10  10
HATCH                   61  88  60  89  59 /   0  10   0  10   0
COLUMBUS                62  92  59  93  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               61  93  59  94  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
MAYHILL                 57  78  54  79  54 /  20  40  40  30  20
MESCALERO               48  81  45  82  45 /  10  30  30  20  20
TIMBERON                49  79  46  80  46 /  10  30  30  20  20
WINSTON                 49  82  46  83  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               57  85  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               57  88  57  89  57 /   0  10  10  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            49  83  46  84  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  58  87  57  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   52  93  49  93  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              42  90  39  90  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 57  85  54  86  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  59  92  55  92  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 56  93  54  93  53 /   0  10   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          60  93  57  93  55 /   0  10   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              55  89  52  89  51 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26
TRIPOLI/GRZYWACZ

000
FXUS64 KCRP 232038
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
338 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WARM AND HAZY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS BENEATH WEAK MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG SIERRA MADRE SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE BRINGING COMPLEX OF STORMS OUT OF WEST TEXAS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT THE STORMS WOULD REACH THE LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES AND
WILL JUST HAVE A SILENT 10 POP OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SHORTWAVE WEAKENING THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY...AND SLIGHT MID LEVEL COOLING OCCURRING
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. MOISTURE AXIS WILL DRIFT SLIGHT EAST
AS WELL...INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WEAK FORCING COULD GENERATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS LA SALLE AND
WEBB COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS TOMORROW...BUT WARM WITH PATCHY HAZE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY. WITH
MOISTURE CONTINUING OUT WEST WILL HOLD ONTO THE 20 POPS FOR THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. NOT MUCH SUPPORT IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BUT THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY BE
ABLE TO TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE RIDGE THEN
STRENGTHENS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH QUIET WEATHER AND
HOT TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN US IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST BY MID WEEK AS WELL. WHILE
ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS LOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD THEY ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW. THE MORE
REASONABLE GFS SOLUTION LIFTS THE LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND INTO THE PLAINS STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS THE TROUGH
UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH...INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. CANADIAN MODEL IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE GFS.  NOT READY TO INTRODUCE ANY POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR FUTURE UPDATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  90  77  91  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          73  88  73  90  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            77  95  76  94  75  /  10  20  20  20  10
ALICE             76  90  76  91  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          77  85  77  87  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75  95  76  96  72  /  10  20  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        77  90  76  91  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  84  76  85  76  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JR/76...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM

000
FXUS64 KHGX 232034
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
334 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR QUIET SO FAR THIS AFTN BUT RELUCTANT TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE
MENTION OF PCPN FOR THIS EVENING. WE SHOULD BE REACHING CONVECTIVE
TEMPS SHORTLY.

OTHERWISE NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE GOING FCST OF MAINLY AFTN/
EARLY EVENING PCPN THESE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK UPPER RIDGING COUPLED
WITH SHORTWAVES FROM THE WEST AND THIS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS
SETTLED OVER THE REGION BEING THE MAIN FACTORS. THIS PATTERN LOOKS
TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK OR SO. AT THAT TIME...MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO DIFFER. ECMWF A BIT SLOWER (BUT STRONGER) WITH THIS
NEXT UPPER TROF THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT WEDS/THURS. ATTM...OPTING TO
KEEP WITH GFS AS IT HAS BEEN VERIFYING BETTER OF LATE. 41

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TOWARDS THE EAST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE EASTWARDS. LOW PRESSURE IN WEST TEXAS
THOUGH WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLANES. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TIDES LATE NEXT WEEK. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  90  70  90  69 /  20  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  90  71  89  71 /  20  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  83  73  84  74 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99

000
FXUS64 KFWD 232027
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
327 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING STORM
COMPLEX IN OKLAHOMA IS CURRENTLY DRAPED NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR
NORTHWEST TO NEAR CHILDRESS. THIS BOUNDARY CAN EASILY BE SEEN ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE WITH CLEARING SUBSIDENT AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTH...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A 20Z FWD RAOB DOES SHOW
AN UNCAPPED AIRMASS WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT AND THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...CANT RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR IS
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO REALLY
HELP INITIATE UPWARD MOTIONS OF THE PARCELS. WILL THROW IN A
MENTION OF ISO T WITH A 10 POP BEFORE 00Z FOR AREAS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. IF A STORM DOES GO...IT WOULD LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH
A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND 0-6 SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS.

THE HIGH MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS ALL THE WAY TO CHILDRESS WHERE THE
FIRST SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN UPSLOPE FLOW. A
SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO...AND
AS THIS UPPER SUPPORT ENCOMPASSES MORE OF THE REGION...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS.
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERE GIVEN HIGH CAPE AND STRONG
SHEAR. THE STORM MOVEMENT TODAY WILL LIKELY BE SLOW...AND
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THESE
STORMS AWAY FROM OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...MOST STORMS WOULD BY THEN BE MUCH WEAKER WITH THE
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND AN INCREASING NOCTURNAL CAPPING
INVERSION. OUR BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE FROM ANY
COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT COULD DEVELOP IN OKLAHOMA...SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. THE TTU WRF DOES DEVELOP A COMPLEX IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AFTER 06Z AND SENDS IT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES
NEAR DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A WEAK
MID LEVEL LOW OVER WEST TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO TODAYS ACTIVITY VIA
LATENT HEAT RELEASE PROCESSES FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY MEANDER EAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
UPPER SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. WENT WITH A 20
POP ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS FOR TOMORROW AND 30 POP FOR THE
WESTERN ZONES...WHERE THE BEST LIFT SHOULD BE LOCATED. MID-LEVEL
FLOW TOMORROW WILL BE 5 TO 15 KNOTS WHICH LEADS TO ONLY 10 TO 20
KNOTS OF SHEAR. CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR 2000 J/KG SO THINK
SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL BUT CANT RULE OUT A MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL STORM BEFORE THE UPDRAFT DIES. WHAT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IS
MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN SLOW
MOVEMENTS. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW
NIGHT...AS STORMS THERE ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE STILL ONGOING AFTER
00Z. WILL CONTINUE THE 20 POP FOR ALL COUNTIES SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW
COULD STILL BE MEANDERING AROUND THE AREA...BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER
SUPPORT OR A SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY AND BEYOND...KEPT
THE REST OF THE FORECAST DRY. THIS LIFT FOR STORMS FRIDAY AND EVEN
SATURDAY IS DEPENDENT ON THERE BEING A LOT OF ACTIVITY FROM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS STORMS...SO THE FORECAST COULD CHANGE.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90S DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S. A STRONGER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SW CONUS
AROUND MID-WEEK AND THEN EJECT INTO THE PLAINS SOMETIME LATE NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE BEST
LIFT...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT
LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO ADD POPS...ONCE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
CAN BE GAINED REGARDING THE TIMING.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  89  69  87  69 /  20  20  10  20  20
WACO, TX              70  89  69  87  68 /  10  20  10  20  10
PARIS, TX             65  82  62  85  66 /  20  20  10  20  20
DENTON, TX            68  88  67  88  69 /  20  20  10  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          67  87  66  87  68 /  20  20  10  20  20
DALLAS, TX            73  90  71  88  70 /  20  20  10  20  20
TERRELL, TX           70  88  67  87  68 /  20  20  10  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         71  89  68  87  68 /  10  20  10  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            69  88  68  86  66 /  10  20  10  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  88  66  86  66 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

85/85

000
FXUS64 KAMA 232017
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
317 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS WE
HEAD INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD. THE STALLED FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA ...AND A DRY LINE INTERSECTING THIS FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...WILL
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUSES FOR CONVECTION. THEREFORE THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND PWAT VALUES AT LEAST IN THE 75TH PERCENTILE RANGE MOVING INTO
THE AREA...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DECREASING
OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO THE
EXACT PLACEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION...AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
TODAY/S CONVECTION WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN THE COMING
DAYS. IN GENERAL...THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL BE FAVORED...WITH
1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE MAINLY IN THE WEST. A TALL AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL FAVOR MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAN LARGE HAIL OR TORNADO THREAT.

SUNDAY...
THE DRYLINE ON SUNDAY SHOULD PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...SETTING UP
MORE LIKELY NEAR OR EAST OF AMARILLO. AGAIN...1500-2500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE AND A TALLER SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGEST A HIGH RISK FOR
HEAVY RAIN.

NF

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK...WITH AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE REGION REMAINS STATIONED BETWEEN AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS STATES/MS VALLEY. THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING...AND ALSO KEEP THE
DRYLINE FROM MIXING TOO FAR EAST. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY MIX FROM
EASTERN NM INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH DAY...POSSIBLY HANGING
UP IN EASTERN NM ON A COUPLE DAYS...PROVIDING A DAILY FOCUS FOR AT
LEAST A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE STORM CHANCES ON A GIVEN DAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE EVENTUAL EJECTION OF THE MAIN
WESTERN TROUGH...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE
TRENDED MORE CLOSELY TO THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF FOR NOW. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE MODEST ON MOST DAYS...LIKELY INCREASING
LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN THE TROUGH DOES EVENTUALLY EJECT.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING IN EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT OF A FEW
SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
TO UPPER 60S.

KB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK AS RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                61  82  63  86  62 /  50  30  20  20  20
BEAVER OK                  62  84  67  91  68 /  50  30  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              59  83  61  91  60 /  20  30  30  20  20
BORGER TX                  64  85  65  88  65 /  50  30  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              62  89  65  90  64 /  40  30  30  20  20
CANYON TX                  60  85  64  85  62 /  50  30  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               64  80  64  83  63 /  50  30  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 60  85  61  90  59 /  20  30  30  20  20
GUYMON OK                  62  83  65  91  66 /  30  30  30  20  20
HEREFORD TX                60  86  62  85  62 /  40  30  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                64  81  67  86  65 /  50  30  20  20  20
PAMPA TX                   61  81  65  85  63 /  50  30  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                65  82  66  84  63 /  50  30  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              67  83  66  85  63 /  50  30  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSJT 232012
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
312 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...
OBVIOUS ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG COUNTRY
AREA...WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
CONCHO VALLEY...AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA...WITH ONE CLUSTER NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND A MORE
INTENSE AREA SOUTHWEST OF CHILDRESS WHERE TORNADO WARNINGS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR BIG COUNTRY
COUNTIES. WHILE WIND SHEAR DECREASES IN MAGNITUDE AS ONE MOVES
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE INITIAL CONVECTION...INSTABILITY ACTUALLY
INCREASES. SO...WHILE STORMS MAY NOT BE TAPPING INTO THE BEST SHEAR
AS THEY ENTER OUR AREA...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH AS SFC BASED CAPE VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 J/KG.

FARTHER SOUTH...CAPE VALUES FROM THE SOUTHERN BIG COUNTRY INTO THE
CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU RANGE FROM 4500 TO 5000
J/KG...SO THERE IS EVEN MORE INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO. HOWEVER...THE
CAP STRENGTHENS AS ONE MOVES EAST...SO THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...SHEAR
ALSO WEAKENS...SO STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO ROTATE AS THEY
INITIALLY DEVELOP...SUSTAINED ORGANIZATION IS QUESTIONABLE.

AS THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...UPSCALE
DEVELOPMENT INTO CLUSTERS OF STORMS OR WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS/S IS
EXPECTED...AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THAT IN MIND...AND
THE FACT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE AROUND...HAVE
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA. ALSO...WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL DISRUPTING THINGS...HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE INHERITED UPPER 80S FOR THE AREA.

20

.LONG TERM...
THE CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLY ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. EXACTLY WHERE STORMS DEVELOP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT ARE LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTION
COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT FOR NOW I HAVE LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY AS THE MAIN FOCUS HAS BEEN ON THE FIRST 48 HOURS.

DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ASHORE THE WEST COAST TUESDAY...THEN APPROACHING
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUE...SO FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT POPS JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT. POPS
MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED ON FUTURE SHIFTS IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

DANIELS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  70  88  68  85  68 /  30  30  30  20  20
SAN ANGELO  71  88  68  87  68 /  30  30  30  20  20
JUNCTION  71  88  69  86  68 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

20/DANIELS

000
FXUS64 KEWX 232002
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
302 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
AND MOVE TOWARD THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THESE
STORMS TO MOVE INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. FORECAST CAPE IS AROUND 2000
J/KG...SO POTENTIAL IS FOR SOME STORMS TO BE SEVERE. WE HAVE
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY UNTIL 10
PM. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL BE RAIN FREE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM
THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST AIR IN PLACE. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE AND THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATURDAY THE SLIGHT CHANCE WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST AS FAR AS
I10/I37. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY
ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. THEN THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE IN
THE REPEATING PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS AND CLEARING
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND BE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE
NEXT CHANGE WILL COME WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  93  73  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  72  93  69 /  10  10  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  92  71  93  70 /  10  10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  89  70  90  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  94  76  94  73 /  20  20  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  89  71  91  69 /  10  10  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  94  74  93  71 /  10  10  10  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  73  92  70 /  10  10  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  74  91  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  92  74  92  72 /  10  10  10  20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  92  74  92  71 /  10  10  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...01
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

000
FXUS64 KMAF 231922
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
222 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3 KJ/KG
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
TRANS PECOS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. MID LEVEL LIFT IS
PRESENT WITH GOOD OMEGA VALUES AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING NEAR THE
AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. A
TORNADO WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
PM CDT. THE SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE THE ONLY
PROHIBITING FACTOR KEEPING STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.
MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING NEAR CHILDRESS TX LATE
THIS EVENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
STORM COMPLEX MAY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS NEW MODEL
DATA COMES IN THIS EVENING.

EXPECT MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND UPPER LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP.  LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE LESS IMPRESSIVE
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1 INCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE CONVECTION.  KEPT RAIN AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL LIFT NEAR THE
AREA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.  THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.  RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FOR SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LEAVING THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.  A DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO
STORMS WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD DURING MID WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING MORE
POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING UPPER LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DECREASING HEIGHTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO HOT NEXT WEEK.  MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  85  68  84  /  50  30  40  20
BIG SPRING TX              69  86  69  85  /  50  30  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                69  90  65  92  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  74  87  69  88  /  30  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  87  67  86  /  50  30  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  84  61  87  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   67  87  64  86  /  40  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   57  81  57  85  /  50  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  85  69  84  /  40  30  40  20
ODESSA TX                  70  84  69  85  /  40  30  40  20
WINK TX                    71  86  69  93  /  40  30  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/80

000
FXUS64 KSJT 231920
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
220 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
TO INCLUDE THE NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
I SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
THAT INCLUDES PARTS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 144 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

UPDATE...
TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE BIG COUNTRY...

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN EVENTUALLY
MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I SENT A QUICK
UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE NEWLY ISSUED TORNADO WATCH...WHICH INCLUDES
MOST OF THE BIG COUNTRY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS IS
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 101 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT OR MIXED HIGHER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OR VFR SCT CIGS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS.
THERE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE KABI
TERMINAL THAT WILL LIKELY BACK ITS WINDS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AS
IT MOVES THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR DIRECT
IMPACT AT KABI. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO INTRODUCE A
PREVAILING GROUP WITH CONVECTION IN IT...SO KEPT THE VCTS GOING
AT MOST SITES BY AROUND 06Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER
POSSIBLE ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUD FIELD /WITH MVFR CEILINGS/ IS EXPANDING NORTHWEST INTO
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. CARRYING LOW CLOUD GROUPS
AT KJCT AND KSOA...WITH TEMPO LOW CLOUD GROUPS AT KBBD AND KSJT...
FROM 12Z TO 15Z. HAVE A TEMPO SCATTERED MENTION AT KABI. WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT FOG/HAZE IS
LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE RANGE OF 4-6
STATUTE MILES. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUD FIELD TO ERODE BY MID-LATE
MORNING WITH A VFR-BASED CUMULUS FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED
AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THIS MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES. HAVE UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
OPTING AT THIS TIME TO CARRY VCTS AT KABI AFTER 0530Z...AND AT KSJT
AFTER 0730Z. REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS /WITH MVFR CEILINGS/ IS
EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...AND WITH
POPS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND EXPECT THE
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY 12Z. THE COLUMN WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN TODAY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.3
INCHES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
BY MID-LATE MORNING...WITH HOT AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMER
READINGS ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY.

ALTHOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
TODAY...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...IN THE VICINITY
OF WHERE THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE
DRYLINE. OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL DURING
THE EVENING. STORMS WHICH INITIALLY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY EVENING
WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MODELS INDICATE THAT STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/...BUT HAVE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SUBSEQUENT
TRACK. ONE POSSIBILITY IS FOR THE MCS TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
IS FOR THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO DEVELOP MORE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. WHILE TAKING A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH TO POPS AT THIS TIME...HAVE THE HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE
WESTERN BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTENDING AS
FAR SOUTHEAST AS A COLEMAN TO SONORA LINE. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO BE
MADE TO THE POPS LATER TODAY WITH NEW MODEL DATA AND AS CONVECTIVE
TRENDS BECOME BETTER DISCERNED. IF A MCS DEVELOPS WITH A DECENT COLD
POOL...COULD HAVE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE/GUST FRONT
DURING THE EVENING.

WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SLOWLY PROPAGATING MCS OR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE THE MODELS MAY
BE HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE BULLSEYE QPF
PATTERNS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST/WARNING AREA...THE
CONSISTENCY AMONG THE MODELS /IN CURRENT AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
OF THE NAM AND GFS/ IN SHOWING THIS PATTERN IS WORTH NOTING.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS...JUST DUE TO THE FACT THAT SO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
RELIES ON WHAT HAPPENS THURSDAY NIGHT. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE INDUCED VORT MAY WELL BE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MODELS ALL SUGGESTING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE THE MAIN AREAS TO
FOCUS ON...WITH THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND THE HEARTLAND STILL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE...AND SEE IF WE CAN GET
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OT STORM LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT AT
THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS THE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN US FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOUTHWEST GLOW ALOFT FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS
SYSTEM MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY TO ADD RAIN
CHANCE TO THE AREA...BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE OFTEN A LITTLE SLOWER
TO COME OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...SO WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  70  88  68  85  68 /  30  30  30  20  20
SAN ANGELO  71  88  68  87  68 /  30  30  30  20  20
JUNCTION  71  88  69  86  68 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DANIELS

000
FXUS64 KEWX 231912
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
212 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. INSTABILITY IS HIGH OUT WEST AND ANY STORMS THAT
FORM COULD BECOME SEVERE. HAVE ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY FOR STORMS MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MOIST SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
CONTINUE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. MVFR CIGS WERE GRADUALLY LIFTING
AND WILL BECOME VFR MOST ALL AREAS BY 18Z WITH SCT-BKN CU AT 3-4 THSD
FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SCT CU AT 4-5 THSD FEET AFTER 22Z. MVFR CIGS
REDEVELOPING AT 05-06Z ACROSS THE I35 CORRIDOR AND SPREADING WEST
TO KDRT AFTER 08Z. MVFR CIGS PREVAILING THRU 17-18Z FRIDAY. S-SELY
SURFACE WINDS AT 10-20 THIS AFTERNOON AND 5-12 KNOTS AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

AVIATION...
STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY EARLY MORNING IFR
CIGS WILL LIFT AND BECOME FEW-SCT VFR CUMULUS AND CIRRUS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
AND PATCHY LATE NIGHT IFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. PATCHY BR/HZ WITH MVFR VSBYS MAY PERSIST
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 12 KTS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 KTS LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASE TO 5 TO
12 KTS TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT 08Z THE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE LOOP DEPICTED STRATUS OVERSPREADING
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SUPPLANTED BY
A FEW AFTERNOON CU TOPPED BY SCATTERED CIRRIFORM CLOUDS. THE HAZE
WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO SMOKE FROM SEASONAL FIRES ACROSS MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID/UPPER 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
LOW CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S TO SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GULF. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ON FRIDAY AS THE 00Z
HI-RES MODELS AND 06Z NAM12 MODEL DEPICT A WEAKENING MCS MOVING
SE INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NE
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY ASSIST IN
ALLOWING THE CONVECTION TO HOLD TOGETHER...MOVING ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE. OTHERWISE THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER TEXAS BREAKS DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  93  72  93  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  91  71  92  69 /  10  10  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  92  70  92  70 /  10  10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            69  89  69  89  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  94  75  93  73 /  20  20  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  89  70  90  69 /  10  10  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  94  73  92  71 /  10  10  10  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  91  72  91  70 /  10  10  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  91  73  90  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  92  73  91  72 /  10  10  10  20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  92  73  91  71 /  10  10  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...01
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

000
FXUS64 KBRO 231900
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
200 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING HAS QUICKLY BUILT NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY...HOLDING IN PLACE THE DRY AIR ABOVE 5000 FEET. BELOW
THIS...SFC HIGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE LONG SE TAP FROM THE GULF...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S AND DRAWING MORE SMOKE FROM THE SOUTH INTO TEXAS. DAYTIME
HEATING HAS BROUGHT THICKER DAYTIME CU FIELD...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
THIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...THE CLOUD DECK WILL RETURN
AND LOWER TO 1500 FEET. ALL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A WEAK
VORT RACING NWWD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE BIG BEND REGION
INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WILL BE DOMINATED TOO MUCH BY THE RIDGE...BUT THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM ON THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN
MEXICO WILL CLIP THE EDGES OF ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES...MAINLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. FEEL THAT THIS THREAT IS MINIMAL...SO HAVE KEPT ONLY
10 PERCENT CHANCES FOR THOSE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALSO ADDED 10
CHANCE FOR CAMERON COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY MAY HELP
SPARK A STREAMER SHOWER OR TWO LATER OVERNIGHT. /64/

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE BIG BEND TO THE
ARKLATEX SATURDAY.  WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...THIS FEATURE
COULD GENERATE A BIT OF CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR AREA.  THE BIG
QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND WHETHER ANY PRECIPITATION COULD WANDER INTO
NORTHERN/WESTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ON THE HIGH END OF NORMAL FOR LATE
MAY/EARLY JUNE...WITH FORECAST VALUES HOVERING AROND THE 1.5 INCH
MARK.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAY INDICATE A BIT OF INSTABILITY...BUT
THEY ALSO SHOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PRESENT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.  BY THE TIME THE INVERSION WEAKENS...I FEEL THE /WEAKENING/
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON
OUR WEATHER LOCALLY.

EVEN WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY TO SEE A BIT OF CONVECTION WANDER SOUTHWARD TOWARD
NORTHERN PARTS OF ZAPATA OR JIM HOGG COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS
CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED OVER THE COASTAL AREAS.  GIVEN MY CONFIDENCE IN
ALL OF THIS HAPPENING...I HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW-GRADE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO THESE AREAS.  RIGHT NOW...I WILL KEEP
THE ODDS OF SEEING SHOWERS UNDER 15 PERCENT.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  WHEN THIS OCCURS...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS.  THIS MAY
ALLOW SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA BY MEMORIAL
DAY.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT...I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...EVEN AS THE RIDGE STARTS SLIDING EAST BY DAY
6/7.  ONGOING FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO BE IN THE
BALLPARK...WITH ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS MADE HERE OR THERE.  /53/

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
DOMINANT SFC HIGH ACROSS THE GULF WILL CONTINUE THE SE FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LACK OF AN OPPOSING LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE NW
WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN
TURN KEEPING SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET. LOWER VISIBILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NOTED ACROSS MARINE AREAS FROM SMOKE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. /64/

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
WITH COMBINED SEAS AVERAGING 4 FEET OR LESS.  A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT TO EXERCISE
CAUTION OR THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.  A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN OVER THE MARINE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS
THIS WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION HAPPENING...
ANY PROBABILITIES WILL BE KEPT UNDER 15 PERCENT.  /53/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  86  77  84 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          77  89  77  86 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            76  90  76  88 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              77  93  77  92 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  94  77  94 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  83  77  82 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... STRAUB
LONG TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
PSU/GRAPHICASTS...MARTINEZ

000
FXUS64 KSJT 231844
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
144 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE BIG COUNTRY...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN EVENTUALLY
MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I SENT A QUICK
UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE NEWLY ISSUED TORNADO WATCH...WHICH INCLUDES
MOST OF THE BIG COUNTRY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS IS
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 101 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT OR MIXED HIGHER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OR VFR SCT CIGS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS.
THERE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE KABI
TERMINAL THAT WILL LIKELY BACK ITS WINDS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AS
IT MOVES THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR DIRECT
IMPACT AT KABI. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO INTRODUCE A
PREVAILING GROUP WITH CONVECTION IN IT...SO KEPT THE VCTS GOING
AT MOST SITES BY AROUND 06Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER
POSSIBLE ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUD FIELD /WITH MVFR CEILINGS/ IS EXPANDING NORTHWEST INTO
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. CARRYING LOW CLOUD GROUPS
AT KJCT AND KSOA...WITH TEMPO LOW CLOUD GROUPS AT KBBD AND KSJT...
FROM 12Z TO 15Z. HAVE A TEMPO SCATTERED MENTION AT KABI. WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT FOG/HAZE IS
LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE RANGE OF 4-6
STATUTE MILES. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUD FIELD TO ERODE BY MID-LATE
MORNING WITH A VFR-BASED CUMULUS FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED
AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THIS MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES. HAVE UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
OPTING AT THIS TIME TO CARRY VCTS AT KABI AFTER 0530Z...AND AT KSJT
AFTER 0730Z. REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS /WITH MVFR CEILINGS/ IS
EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...AND WITH
POPS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND EXPECT THE
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY 12Z. THE COLUMN WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN TODAY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.3
INCHES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
BY MID-LATE MORNING...WITH HOT AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMER
READINGS ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY.

ALTHOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
TODAY...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...IN THE VICINITY
OF WHERE THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE
DRYLINE. OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL DURING
THE EVENING. STORMS WHICH INITIALLY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY EVENING
WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MODELS INDICATE THAT STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/...BUT HAVE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SUBSEQUENT
TRACK. ONE POSSIBILITY IS FOR THE MCS TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
IS FOR THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO DEVELOP MORE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. WHILE TAKING A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH TO POPS AT THIS TIME...HAVE THE HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE
WESTERN BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTENDING AS
FAR SOUTHEAST AS A COLEMAN TO SONORA LINE. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO BE
MADE TO THE POPS LATER TODAY WITH NEW MODEL DATA AND AS CONVECTIVE
TRENDS BECOME BETTER DISCERNED. IF A MCS DEVELOPS WITH A DECENT COLD
POOL...COULD HAVE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE/GUST FRONT
DURING THE EVENING.

WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SLOWLY PROPAGATING MCS OR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE THE MODELS MAY
BE HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE BULLSEYE QPF
PATTERNS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST/WARNING AREA...THE
CONSISTENCY AMONG THE MODELS /IN CURRENT AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
OF THE NAM AND GFS/ IN SHOWING THIS PATTERN IS WORTH NOTING.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS...JUST DUE TO THE FACT THAT SO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
RELIES ON WHAT HAPPENS THURSDAY NIGHT. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE INDUCED VORT MAY WELL BE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MODELS ALL SUGGESTING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE THE MAIN AREAS TO
FOCUS ON...WITH THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND THE HEARTLAND STILL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE...AND SEE IF WE CAN GET
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OT STORM LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT AT
THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS THE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN US FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOUTHWEST GLOW ALOFT FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS
SYSTEM MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY TO ADD RAIN
CHANCE TO THE AREA...BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE OFTEN A LITTLE SLOWER
TO COME OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...SO WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  70  88  68  85  68 /  30  30  30  20  20
SAN ANGELO  71  88  68  87  68 /  30  30  30  20  20
JUNCTION  71  88  69  86  68 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DANIELS

000
FXUS64 KMAF 231823
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
123 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ENTERING THE PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THOUGH CURRENT TERMINAL FORECASTS DO NOT FORECAST A WIND SHIFT
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...THE BOUNDARY COULD POTENTIALLY GET AS FAR
WEST AS MAF AND HOB BY 00Z...RESULTING IN A MORE EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE
EAST INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPORARY
THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD 16Z-19Z
THURSDAY...W/BASES 6-13KFT AGL. MODELS THEN DEVELOP CONVECTION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT PLAINS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AROUND
18Z...AND BRING AN IMPRESSIVE MCS OUT OF THE NORTH AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY...MAINTAINED BY ANOTHER LLJ INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION OUT
WEST FIRST...AND THEN THE NOCTURNAL MCS OVERNIGHT...IMPACTING
EASTERN TERMINALS. BUFFER SOUNDINGS BRING A STRATUS DECK INTO THE
EASTERN TERMINALS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT CIGS
SHOULD STAY ABV 3KFT AGL UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WAY UP AS WE TRANSITION
INTO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. WV IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WHILE GULF MOISTURE AT THE SFC
SPREADS WEST ACROSS THE AREA. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN
NM AND FAR WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK FRONT STALLS IN THE
TX PANHANDLE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FIRST STORMS WILL
INITIATE OVER PARTS OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AROUND LUNCHTIME OWING TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. MORE STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SE NM AND AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ~8 C/KM AND
CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG WILL HELP SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE STORMS
CONTAINING SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER...MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL PREVENT ANY STORM FROM GETTING TOO ORGANIZED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND
GFS DEVELOP AN MCS OFF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE IT SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF THE REGION DRY
WITH PRECIP WELL TO OUR EAST. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE NAM AND GFS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS REGARDING
TODAY`S CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS AND INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. STILL EXPECT CHANGES TO BE MADE TO THE
FORECAST TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL DATA. PWATS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH NEAR 2SD ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS EVENING SO WILL ALSO ADD
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR TONIGHT.

DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS TONIGHT, THERE COULD BE SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO TELL WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SET UP, BUT THEY COULD HELP
FOCUS CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE, BUT TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AN EXACT LOCATION.
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A S/W EJECTS OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS
REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM
AFTERNOONS AND MUGGY MORNINGS.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KAMA 231822 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
122 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE PICTURE IS BECOMING CLEARER AS FAR AS SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES GO THIS AFTERNOON. A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN FLOW
ALOFT MEANS THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE PREDOMINATELY SFC-
BNDRY DRIVEN. A WWD MOVING COLD FRONT IS SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING
JUST EAST OF I27. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
RIGHT ALONG I27. ONCE IT STALLS, CONVERGENCE ALONG IT SHOULD
INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OFF OF THE
BOUNDARY AND RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR IN THE PRESENCE OF MLCAPE
VALUES OF 3500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES INCREASING TO 40-50KTS.

THREATS-WISE...
CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR VERY LARGE HAIL, MAYBE NEAR SOFTBALL SIZE.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED INTENSITY OF SUPERCELLS, THE TORNADO THREAT WILL
ALSO BE NOTED IN THE PRESENCE OF LOW LVL ERLY FLOW. THE GREATEST
THREAT AREA CONTINUES TO BE BOUNDED BY PAMPA, AMARILLO, AND CANYON ON
THE NW.

OF NOTE...
STORMS COULD VERY WELL INITIATE DIRECTLY ABOVE AMARILLO AND CANYON.
THE PACE AT WHICH THEY BECOME SEVERE WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT
AMARILLO RESIDENTS BEAR THE WORST OF THESE STORMS. THE EASTERN HALVES
OF POTTER/RANDALL COUNTIES WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER
THAN THE WESTERN PORTIONS.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO BE A MAIN CONCERN FOR THE KAMA TERMINAL
WHILE KGUY AND KDHT WILL BE FACING LOW CLOUDS FOR THE STAT OF THE
TAF.

FOR KAMA...CONDITIONS REMAIN PRIMED FOR THE INITIATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OR EVEN RIGHT OVER THE TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL START OVER THE TERMINAL OR MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE PREVAILING GROUP BUT MOVED THE
TIMING SOONER BY AN HOUR. GIVEN THE RECENT CU DEVELOPMENT FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD HOLD OFF AT LEAST UNTIL
20Z. WITH THAT SAID IF/WHEN STORMS INITIATE THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THESE STORMS TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY...AND IF THEY
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND BRIEF
LIFR OR LOWER CEILINGS. ANY CONVECTION NEAR THE TERMINAL SHOULD BE
EAST BY 03Z. THEN OVER NIGHT EXPECT TO SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE
LOWEST LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SATURATED. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT JUST BEFORE THE END OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

FOR KDHT AND KGUY...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THESE
TERMINALS BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF
THIS TAF ISSUANCE. BOTH TERMINALS MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT
BUT ROTATE FROM A NORTHEASTERLY TO THE SOUTH BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...
FOR ONCE FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NEARLY ALL OF
THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE EXPECTED PATTERN TODAY. COLD FRONT
HAS NEARLY ENTERED THE OK PANHANDLE. THE EXACT LOCATION WHERE THE
FRONT WILL STALL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH THE LATEST NAM SHOWING
THE FRONT MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE BY OR JUST AFTER
00Z. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SOLUTION THAT IT WILL
STALL NEAR DALHART...JUST NORTH OF AMARILLO...AND NEAR
CLARENDON..SINCE THIS HAS HAD THE MOST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
ANOTHER INGREDIENT THAT WE ARE STILL WAITING ON IS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEW POINT TEMPS BY 18Z IN THE MID
60S. HOWEVER...AT THIS HOUR...DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION. FEEL RELATIVELY CONFIDENT THAT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS ADVERTISED WITH THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW. AND ONE MORE THING WE WILL BE
WATCHING IS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH HELPING TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE...AT LEAST IN THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...AND PROVIDING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. HAVING SAID ALL THAT...STILL THINK THE INGREDIENTS WILL
COME TOGETHER FOR A SEVERE STORM THREAT BY 21 TO 00Z. AS FOR WHAT
HAZARDS WE ARE CONCERNED WITH:

HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...WITH OUT A DOUBT THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST
THREAT. EXPECT CAPE VALUES TO BE QUITE LARGE...BY SOME MODELS THERE ARE
ML CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE...GENERALLY 25 TO 35 KT...THOUGH ALONG THE NM/TX STATE
LINE SHEAR VALUES COULD BE OVER 50KT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERSISTENT
UPDRAFTS. THE MAIN PERIOD FOR THIS THREAT WILL BE FROM SHORTLY AFTER
THE STORMS DEVELOP...3 OR 4 PM CDT...THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM AS CAPE
VALUES DECREASE AND STORMS BECOME ELEVATED.

FLASH FLOODING...BECOMING MORE CONCERNED WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTH EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS
MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
VERY INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING STORM MOTIONS OF RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELLS IN THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE TO BE BETWEEN 0 AND 8KT. ALSO
IF ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TRAIN ALONG OR BACK BUILD ON THE
FRONT...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LONG DURATION RAINFALL. THESE
FACTORS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT THE ISSUE OF INEFFICIENCY. HAVING
SAID ALL THAT HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF STORMS ARE
PRIMARILY LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS OR COMPLEXES THAT MOVE WITH THE MEAN
FLOW...STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE FAST ENOUGH TO GENERALLY MITIGATE THE
FLASH FLOODING CONCERN.

TORNADOES...AS MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE THREAT PERIOD
FOR THIS WILL BE RATHER BRIEF...AND SHOULD BE PRIMARILY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS THREAT WILL
BE THE LCLS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW ONLY A BRIEF
PERIOD...CENTERED AROUND 00Z WHEN THE LCLS WILL BE BELOW 2000 FT AGL.
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING THAT THE THREAT FOR THIS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM CDT.

LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET SHOULD DEVELOP
BY 06Z TONIGHT...BRINGING NEEDED MOISTURE RETURN. HOWEVER...HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH.
IF THIS COMPLEX IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH...IT COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE
RETURN...LIMITING HOW LATE THE CONVECTION WOULD LAST. TOMORROW IS
ALSO RATHER CONDITIONAL. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE LOW CLOUDS
THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THESE LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST...THIS COULD LIMIT HEATING...AND THUS CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. HOWEVER...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT
LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT.

LONG TERM...
BEYOND FRIDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE REGION WILL STAY IN AN UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN...WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS...AND A PERSISTENT DRY LINE PROVIDING MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOW LONG THIS PATTERN HOLDS IS DEPENDENT ON HOW
QUICKLY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST...AND THAT IS
RATHER UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE TO OUR
EAST...FORECAST FAVORS THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION OVER THE GFS. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS SOLUTION IS THAT FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE VERY MERIDIONAL...WHICH SHOULD
MEAN THE DRY LINE ISN/T LIKELY TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ANY TIME SOON.
FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED POPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. BUT IF THE PATTERN IS AS THE ECMWF SHOWS...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL.

JOHNSON

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVELY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

JOHNSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/09

000
FXUS64 KFWD 231816
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
116 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...
MORNING MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AT ALL TAF
SITES AND EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE VFR BY 19Z. SCATTERED CU WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS TEMPORARILY CLEARING
WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING THIS EVENING. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BETTER FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO
STRONGER SURFACE WINDS. ALL LOW CEILINGS/FOG SHOULD LIFT AND
SCATTER BETWEEN 17 AND 18Z FRIDAY MORNING.

AM BECOMING A BIT MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS MORNING AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AS PER
THE 06Z RUN OF THE TEXAS TECH WRF. AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD
MENTION OF THUNDER OR IMPACTS TO THIS TAF PACKAGE SINCE MOST OF
THE STORMS SHOULD BE WEST OF THE TERMINALS...BUT MAY INTRODUCE IN
LATER UPDATES AS NEW MODEL DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING HAS
STALLED AND WINDS HAVE TURNED BACK TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS BETWEEN
6 AND 13 KNOTS.


79

&&

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED THE MORNING POPS SOUTHWARD DUE TO EXPECTED CONTINUATION
SOUTH OF THE THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS STORM SHOULD
SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME WITH THE LOSS OF THE NOCTURNAL LLJ.
HOWEVER...MUCAPES ACROSS THE AREA ARE NEAR 3000 J/KG WHICH COULD
KEEP THE ACTIVITY ALIVE DESPITE THE LOSS IN LIFT. MAY HAVE TO DO
AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE TO PLACE POPS IN THE FORECAST FURTHER SOUTH
IF THE STORM CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IS INCREASING DEW
POINTS THROUGHOUT MOST OF TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK
WARM FRONT IS LOCATED THIS MORNING NEAR THE RED RIVER AND CONVECTION IS
STARTING TO FORM IN SOUTHERN OK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ADVECT THE
STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.

PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS QUITE DIFFICULT DUE
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE WEAK FORCING AND DETERMINING
THE LOCATIONS WHERE STORMS WILL OCCUR. THE WEAK RIDGING OVER TX
IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO CAP OFF
CONVECTION AND MODEL POP SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA RANGE FROM DRY TO
STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL LAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SHOULD MODELS BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION...THE
LOW POPS CURRENTLY FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE RAISED FOR THE AREAS
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE LIKELY.

THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG THE GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTION WILL BREAK OUT NEAR THE DRY LINE IN WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SORT OF MCS MOVING SOUTH AND SPREADING EAST
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
IN THE SOUTHWARD MOVING MCS THAN THE CONVECTION SPREADING
EAST...SO I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
CONVECTION MAY INITIALLY AFFECT NORTHWEST COUNTIES...EXPANDING
OVERNIGHT TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NORTH TX
AREA ON FRIDAY.

THE PROCESS MAY REPEAT ITSELF FRIDAY EVENING...WITH LOW POPS
LINGERING IN THE NORTHERN HALF SATURDAY AND ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
CONVECTION DOES FORM AND EVOLVE INTO AN MCS...AND WHAT DIRECTION
IT MOVES.

WITH SOUTH FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S/90S AND MORNING
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/70S. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON WHERE AND TO WHAT EXTENT CONVECTION OCCURS.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY...EXTENDING SOUTH TO
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND I ADDED LOW POPS TO THE
GRIDS FOR THOSE TWO DAYS. 84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  87  72  86  71  85 /  20  20  20  10  20
WACO, TX              90  73  88  69  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             83  68  81  69  82 /  40  20  20  10  20
DENTON, TX            86  70  84  70  83 /  20  20  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          85  70  85  70  84 /  30  20  20  10  20
DALLAS, TX            87  73  88  72  87 /  20  20  20  10  20
TERRELL, TX           88  71  87  70  87 /  20  20  20  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         90  71  89  70  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            90  72  87  69  86 /  10  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     91  71  86  70  84 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/85

000
FXUS64 KCRP 231804
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
104 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH 19-20Z...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT
TO AT TIMES BKN CEILINGS AROUND 4000 FEET. HAZE FROM SMOKE
ORIGINATING IN MEXICO WILL PRODUCE 6-7SM VISIBILITIES AT SOME
LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON (3-4SM VISIBILITIES AT SOME
OFFSHORE LOCATIONS). STRATUS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
COASTAL PLAINS BY 03-04Z AND LRD BY 07Z. GENERALLY MVFR IN
STRATUS...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TEMPO IFR. SE WINDS 10-15 KTS
WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AT SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM
MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST OVER SOUTH TEXAS LATER TODAY.
MORNING STRATUS WILL SCATTER IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SMOKE/HAZE
OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION ALSO. AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN NEW MEXICO DURING THE PERIOD SO DO NOT
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE ABOVE MODERATE LEVELS. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
FRIDAY AND THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
GENERATE CONVECTION ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN THAT COULD MOVE CLOSE TO
THE RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THE
MOMENT...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT AND LEAVE OUT WORDING
IN THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW DVLPG ACROSS W TX AND SLOWLY MOVG E FRI
NIGHT/SAT. MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE W CWA
OR AT LEAST CLOSE TO THE AREA BY SAT MORNING. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE
CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENING ON SAT. AIRMASS IS PROGD TO BE UNSTABLE
AND PWAT`S ARE PROGD TO INCREASE TO ABV 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE W CWA.
NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR COT HAS AROUND 50 PERCENT CHC OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER...THE GFS MOS IS ONLY 20 PERCENT. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP
FOR THE WESTERN CWA FOR SAT BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER AS
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THERE`S LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF LOW LEVEL FORCING OTHER THAN SOME WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE W CWA. MODELS KEEP AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS DRAPED ACROSS SE AND
S TX SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON THE LESS FAVORABLE W SIDE OF THE TROF. A DRIER
AIRMASS IS PRGD TO BE ACROSS THE E CWA AND GULF WATERS THRU THE
WEEKEND. KEPT A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS THE W FOR SUNDAY DUE TO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROGD TO BE ACROSS MEX AND THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. RIDGING ALOFT THEN TAKES HOLD MON/TUE WITH LITTLE TO
NO PRECIP EXPECTED. WARMER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED FOR MON/TUE
TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING E AS A LOW
SWINGS ACROSS THE W U.S. RESULTING IN DEEPER MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED
INTO S TX BY WED. FOR NOW WENT WITH SILENT 10 POPS FOR WED BUT IF
THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED. AS FOR
WINDS...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BY NEXT TUE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  87  76  91  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          73  88  73  89  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            77  97  77  97  77  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             75  91  75  92  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          76  84  76  84  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           74  95  73  97  73  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        76  90  75  92  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  84  76  84  76  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JR/76...AVIATION

000
FXUS64 KSJT 231801 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
101 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT OR MIXED HIGHER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OR VFR SCT CIGS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS.
THERE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE KABI
TERMINAL THAT WILL LIKELY BACK ITS WINDS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AS
IT MOVES THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR DIRECT
IMPACT AT KABI. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO INTRODUCE A
PREVAILING GROUP WITH CONVECTION IN IT...SO KEPT THE VCTS GOING
AT MOST SITES BY AROUND 06Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER
POSSIBLE ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUD FIELD /WITH MVFR CEILINGS/ IS EXPANDING NORTHWEST INTO
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. CARRYING LOW CLOUD GROUPS
AT KJCT AND KSOA...WITH TEMPO LOW CLOUD GROUPS AT KBBD AND KSJT...
FROM 12Z TO 15Z. HAVE A TEMPO SCATTERED MENTION AT KABI. WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT FOG/HAZE IS
LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE RANGE OF 4-6
STATUTE MILES. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUD FIELD TO ERODE BY MID-LATE
MORNING WITH A VFR-BASED CUMULUS FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED
AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THIS MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES. HAVE UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
OPTING AT THIS TIME TO CARRY VCTS AT KABI AFTER 0530Z...AND AT KSJT
AFTER 0730Z. REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS /WITH MVFR CEILINGS/ IS
EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...AND WITH
POPS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND EXPECT THE
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY 12Z. THE COLUMN WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN TODAY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.3
INCHES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
BY MID-LATE MORNING...WITH HOT AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMER
READINGS ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY.

ALTHOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
TODAY...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...IN THE VICINITY
OF WHERE THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE
DRYLINE. OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL DURING
THE EVENING. STORMS WHICH INITIALLY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY EVENING
WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MODELS INDICATE THAT STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/...BUT HAVE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SUBSEQUENT
TRACK. ONE POSSIBILITY IS FOR THE MCS TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
IS FOR THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO DEVELOP MORE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. WHILE TAKING A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH TO POPS AT THIS TIME...HAVE THE HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE
WESTERN BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTENDING AS
FAR SOUTHEAST AS A COLEMAN TO SONORA LINE. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO BE
MADE TO THE POPS LATER TODAY WITH NEW MODEL DATA AND AS CONVECTIVE
TRENDS BECOME BETTER DISCERNED. IF A MCS DEVELOPS WITH A DECENT COLD
POOL...COULD HAVE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE/GUST FRONT
DURING THE EVENING.

WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SLOWLY PROPAGATING MCS OR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE THE MODELS MAY
BE HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE BULLSEYE QPF
PATTERNS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST/WARNING AREA...THE
CONSISTENCY AMONG THE MODELS /IN CURRENT AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
OF THE NAM AND GFS/ IN SHOWING THIS PATTERN IS WORTH NOTING.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS...JUST DUE TO THE FACT THAT SO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
RELIES ON WHAT HAPPENS THURSDAY NIGHT. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE INDUCED VORT MAY WELL BE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MODELS ALL SUGGESTING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE THE MAIN AREAS TO
FOCUS ON...WITH THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND THE HEARTLAND STILL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE...AND SEE IF WE CAN GET
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OT STORM LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT AT
THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS THE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN US FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOUTHWEST GLOW ALOFT FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS
SYSTEM MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY TO ADD RAIN
CHANCE TO THE AREA...BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE OFTEN A LITTLE SLOWER
TO COME OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...SO WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  70  88  68  85  68 /  30  30  30  20  20
SAN ANGELO  71  88  68  87  68 /  30  30  30  20  10
JUNCTION  71  88  69  86  68 /  10  20  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLUB 231736
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1236 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE FOR SEVERE TSRA IN THE VICINITY
OF BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
THE PERIOD MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT EACH TERMINAL THRU EARLY
EVENING....BUT LOW CHANCES OF -TSRA AND -SHRA WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SEVERE WIND GUSTS...TURBULENCE AND HAIL WILL BE FOUND
IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS AS WELL HAS BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY HVY
RAIN AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY...AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AT
THIS TIME REGARDING COVERAGE AND TIMING. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
RETURN FRI MID-MORN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  59  82  60  82 /  30  30  50  30  20
TULIA         88  61  83  62  82 /  60  50  50  30  20
PLAINVIEW     92  62  84  63  82 /  60  60  50  30  20
LEVELLAND     94  62  84  64  82 /  40  50  50  30  20
LUBBOCK       94  62  86  65  83 /  30  60  50  30  20
DENVER CITY   93  62  85  64  82 /  30  30  50  30  20
BROWNFIELD    93  62  86  65  83 /  30  50  50  30  20
CHILDRESS     89  64  85  66  84 /  60  60  30  30  20
SPUR          94  64  87  66  83 /  30  60  50  30  20
ASPERMONT     95  67  87  67  84 /  20  60  30  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33

000
FXUS64 KBRO 231735 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1235 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THICK CU FIELD CONTINUES TO ENVELOP THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THICK GULF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION AT
AROUND 3000 FEET. CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TROUBLE THINNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AND CIGS WILL VARY BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY BO SCT JUST BEFORE SUNSET BEFORE
CLOUDS RETURN MIDEVENING. CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...WITH CIGS FALLING TO 1500 FEET OVERNIGHT. BRIEF RUNS
DOWN TO 1000 FEET MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR KBRO AND KHRL. WINDS
WILL RELAX TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO 15G20KTS
TOMORROW. NO LLVL JET EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING. AGRICULTURAL BURNING ACROSS
MEXICO MAY PROVIDE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES DUE TO HAZE
THIS MORNING. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY LATE THIS MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS AND
BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS MOVES BACK ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CEILING POSSIBLE AROUND 3Z
FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID AND UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT
TODAY AND FRIDAY.  AGRICULTURAL BURNING IN MEXICO WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN PERIODS OF HAZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST...THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT/SCATTER
OUT AS DAYTIME HEATING AND WINDS INCREASE BY LATE MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S AT THE BEACHES...LOW
TO MID 90S IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND UPPER 90S OVER THE WEST.
MOSTLY CLOUDY...CONTINUED MILD AND HUMID TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A LITTLE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM. 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA...THE NORTHERN HALF
OF MEXICO...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND EXTENDED
OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ONE POTENTIAL ADJUSTMENT THAT MAY
NEED TO BE MADE IN THE NEAR FUTURE IS THE INCLUSION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE BRO CWFA...AS A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH TRANSITS
OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND...INITIATING CONVECTION THAT MAY SNEAK INTO
ZAPATA...STARR...AND JIM HOGG COUNTY ON SATURDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AREAS OF HAZE WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM
AGRICULTURAL BURNING IN MEXICO CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE...AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64

000
FXUS64 KAMA 231733
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1233 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO BE A MAIN CONCERN FOR THE KAMA TERMINAL
WHILE KGUY AND KDHT WILL BE FACING LOW CLOUDS FOR THE STAT OF THE
TAF.

FOR KAMA...CONDITIONS REMAIN PRIMED FOR THE INITIATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OR EVEN RIGHT OVER THE TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL START OVER THE TERMINAL OR MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE PREVAILING GROUP BUT MOVED THE
TIMING SOONER BY AN HOUR. GIVEN THE RECENT CU DEVELOPMENT FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD HOLD OFF AT LEAST UNTIL
20Z. WITH THAT SAID IF/WHEN STORMS INITIATE THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THESE STORMS TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY...AND IF THEY
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND BRIEF
LIFR OR LOWER CEILINGS. ANY CONVECTION NEAR THE TERMINAL SHOULD BE
EAST BY 03Z. THEN OVER NIGHT EXPECT TO SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE
LOWEST LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SATURATED. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT JUST BEFORE THE END OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

FOR KDHT AND KGUY...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THESE
TERMINALS BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF
THIS TAF ISSUANCE. BOTH TERMINALS MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT
BUT ROTATE FROM A NORTHEASTERLY TO THE SOUTH BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...
FOR ONCE FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NEARLY ALL OF
THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE EXPECTED PATTERN TODAY. COLD FRONT
HAS NEARLY ENTERED THE OK PANHANDLE. THE EXACT LOCATION WHERE THE
FRONT WILL STALL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH THE LATEST NAM SHOWING
THE FRONT MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE BY OR JUST AFTER
00Z. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SOLUTION THAT IT WILL
STALL NEAR DALHART...JUST NORTH OF AMARILLO...AND NEAR
CLARENDON..SINCE THIS HAS HAD THE MOST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
ANOTHER INGREDIENT THAT WE ARE STILL WAITING ON IS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEW POINT TEMPS BY 18Z IN THE MID
60S. HOWEVER...AT THIS HOUR...DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION. FEEL RELATIVELY CONFIDENT THAT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS ADVERTISED WITH THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW. AND ONE MORE THING WE WILL BE
WATCHING IS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH HELPING TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE...AT LEAST IN THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...AND PROVIDING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. HAVING SAID ALL THAT...STILL THINK THE INGREDIENTS WILL
COME TOGETHER FOR A SEVERE STORM THREAT BY 21 TO 00Z. AS FOR WHAT
HAZARDS WE ARE CONCERNED WITH:

HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...WITH OUT A DOUBT THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST
THREAT. EXPECT CAPE VALUES TO BE QUITE LARGE...BY SOME MODELS THERE ARE
ML CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE...GENERALLY 25 TO 35 KT...THOUGH ALONG THE NM/TX STATE
LINE SHEAR VALUES COULD BE OVER 50KT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERSISTENT
UPDRAFTS. THE MAIN PERIOD FOR THIS THREAT WILL BE FROM SHORTLY AFTER
THE STORMS DEVELOP...3 OR 4 PM CDT...THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM AS CAPE
VALUES DECREASE AND STORMS BECOME ELEVATED.

FLASH FLOODING...BECOMING MORE CONCERNED WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTH EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS
MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
VERY INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING STORM MOTIONS OF RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELLS IN THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE TO BE BETWEEN 0 AND 8KT. ALSO
IF ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TRAIN ALONG OR BACK BUILD ON THE
FRONT...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LONG DURATION RAINFALL. THESE
FACTORS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT THE ISSUE OF INEFFICIENCY. HAVING
SAID ALL THAT HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF STORMS ARE
PRIMARILY LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS OR COMPLEXES THAT MOVE WITH THE MEAN
FLOW...STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE FAST ENOUGH TO GENERALLY MITIGATE THE
FLASH FLOODING CONCERN.

TORNADOES...AS MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE THREAT PERIOD
FOR THIS WILL BE RATHER BRIEF...AND SHOULD BE PRIMARILY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS THREAT WILL
BE THE LCLS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW ONLY A BRIEF
PERIOD...CENTERED AROUND 00Z WHEN THE LCLS WILL BE BELOW 2000 FT AGL.
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING THAT THE THREAT FOR THIS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM CDT.

LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET SHOULD DEVELOP
BY 06Z TONIGHT...BRINGING NEEDED MOISTURE RETURN. HOWEVER...HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH.
IF THIS COMPLEX IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH...IT COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE
RETURN...LIMITING HOW LATE THE CONVECTION WOULD LAST. TOMORROW IS
ALSO RATHER CONDITIONAL. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE LOW CLOUDS
THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THESE LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST...THIS COULD LIMIT HEATING...AND THUS CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. HOWEVER...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT
LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT.

LONG TERM...
BEYOND FRIDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE REGION WILL STAY IN AN UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN...WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS...AND A PERSISTENT DRY LINE PROVIDING MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOW LONG THIS PATTERN HOLDS IS DEPENDENT ON HOW
QUICKLY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST...AND THAT IS
RATHER UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE TO OUR
EAST...FORECAST FAVORS THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION OVER THE GFS. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS SOLUTION IS THAT FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE VERY MERIDIONAL...WHICH SHOULD
MEAN THE DRY LINE ISN/T LIKELY TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ANY TIME SOON.
FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED POPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. BUT IF THE PATTERN IS AS THE ECMWF SHOWS...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL.

JOHNSON

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVELY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

JOHNSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/09

000
FXUS64 KHGX 231719
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1219 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
STILL ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS AT SOME SITES THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT ABOVE MVFR TO VFR IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. NAM AND GFS
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FIELDS HINTING AT FOG AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
AS WAS THE CASE THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
TOMORROW MORNING WITH LIFR CONDITIONS CONFINED TO LBX AND CXO.
WINDS WILL THEN BACK MORE EASTERLY TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FOR THE UPDATE...MAINLY JUST FOR
INLAND PORTIONS OF SE TX FOR THE AFTN/EARLY EVE HOURS. ISOLATED
PCPN YESTERDAY EVE ALONG WITH THE BREAKABLE CAPS (DEPICTED FROM
LOCAL 12Z SOUNDINGS) AND SHORT TERM MODELS ALL PLAYING INTO THE
CHANGES FOR THE AFTN GRIDS. 41

PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A BREAKABLE CAP SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER EAST TEXAS BUT
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE JUST DOESN`T LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE STRONG CAPPING TO LIMIT CONVECTION. A SUBTLE WEAKNESS AT
500 MB WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SAT/SUN. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS SUBSIDENT
AND RELATIVELY DRY OVER SE TX. MEX NUMBERS LOOK A LITTLE COOL
CONSIDERING THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO WENT A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN MEX GUIDANCE. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  90  70  90  69 /  20  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  90  71  89  71 /  20  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  83  73  84  74 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...23

000
FXUS64 KEWX 231713
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1213 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MOIST SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
CONTINUE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. MVFR CIGS WERE GRADUALLY LIFTING
AND WILL BECOME VFR MOST ALL AREAS BY 18Z WITH SCT-BKN CU AT 3-4 THSD
FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SCT CU AT 4-5 THSD FEET AFTER 22Z. MVFR CIGS
REDEVELOPING AT 05-06Z ACROSS THE I35 CORRIDOR AND SPREADING WEST
TO KDRT AFTER 08Z. MVFR CIGS PREVAILING THRU 17-18Z FRIDAY. S-SELY
SURFACE WINDS AT 10-20 THIS AFTERNOON AND 5-12 KNOTS AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

AVIATION...
STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY EARLY MORNING IFR
CIGS WILL LIFT AND BECOME FEW-SCT VFR CUMULUS AND CIRRUS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
AND PATCHY LATE NIGHT IFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. PATCHY BR/HZ WITH MVFR VSBYS MAY PERSIST
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 12 KTS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 KTS LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASE TO 5 TO
12 KTS TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT 08Z THE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE LOOP DEPICTED STRATUS OVERSPREADING
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SUPPLANTED BY
A FEW AFTERNOON CU TOPPED BY SCATTERED CIRRIFORM CLOUDS. THE HAZE
WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO SMOKE FROM SEASONAL FIRES ACROSS MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID/UPPER 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
LOW CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S TO SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GULF. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ON FRIDAY AS THE 00Z
HI-RES MODELS AND 06Z NAM12 MODEL DEPICT A WEAKENING MCS MOVING
SE INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NE
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY ASSIST IN
ALLOWING THE CONVECTION TO HOLD TOGETHER...MOVING ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE. OTHERWISE THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER TEXAS BREAKS DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  93  72  93  71 /   0  10  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  91  71  92  69 /   0  10  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  92  70  92  70 /   0  10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            69  89  69  89  68 /   0  10  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  94  75  93  73 /   0  20  20  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  89  70  90  69 /   0  10  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  94  73  92  71 /   0  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  91  72  91  70 /   0  10  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  91  73  90  71 /   0  10  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  92  73  91  72 /   0  10  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  92  73  91  71 /   0  10  10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...01
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05

000
FXUS64 KLUB 231628 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1128 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL TRENDS STILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. 15Z SURFACE OBS SHOW A COLD FRONT
STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN TX PANHANDLE WHILE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S HAVE RETURNED TO MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. IN
ADDITION...A MCS DIVING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL OKLA TO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY HAS SENT A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WESTWARD...WHICH WILL BE
EDGING INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY 11 AM. MORNING SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM A MID-LVL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST FLOW FROM 700MB
TO 500MB AND A STRONG CAP AROUND 750MB. DESPITE THIS WARM LAYER
ALOFT...STRONG SFC HEATING IS EXPECTED TO ERODE ALL CINH BY MID-
AFTN AND MOST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE BREAKS OUT SCATTERED CONVECTION BY
20 UTC OR SO. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE STRONG CONVERGENCE
AND ENHANCE THE LOW-LVL WIND SHEAR AND ONE OF OUR MAIN CONCERNS IS
THE POSITION OF THIS COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BY PEAK HEATING.
AT THIS TIME...WE EXPECT IT TO BE LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE
FROM HAPPY...TO PLAINVIEW...TO FLOYDADA...TO DICKENS. STORMS IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO TAP
INTO THE LOW- LEVEL HELICITY AND MOIST INFLOW. COOLER AIR ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP LCLS AND THERE SHOULD BE A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF A TORNADO THREAT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE MODEST...MLCAPES OF 2000 TO 300 J/KG SHOULD COMPENSATE AND
SUPPORT A COUPLE DEEP ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE AREA ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN...WE ALSO EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
ALL THE WAY TO THE NM BORDER AND THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BRING THE
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS.

GIVEN THE WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR
MORE STORMS ANCHORED TO THE BOUNDARY...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANYONS.

INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO A CLUSTER THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET KICKS IN AND SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE WIND AND
HAIL THREAT...FOCUSED ON THE ERN AND SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT BOUNDARY EDGING THROUGH KCDS THOUGH NOT MUCH NOTICEABLE
WIND SHIFT. BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL ABOUT 40 MILES OR SO NORTH OF
KLBB LATER TODAY BUT WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD SAG INTO BOTH TAF
SITES WITH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BETTER HANDLED IN SHORTER TERM
TAF UPDATE IF NECESSARY. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THIS EVENING SOUTH OF KCDS AND SOUTHEAST OF KLBB
WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AT KLBB. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES
APPEARS TO BE A THREAT FOR LATER TODAY AND REMAINS OUR PRIMARY FOCUS.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT STILL SHOULD EASE SOUTHWARD INTO
OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND MID-DAY BEFORE LOSING ITS PUSH. TO THE
NORTHEAST...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL PUSH TO THE SOUTHWEST
FOR THIS FRONT. GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAS EDGED THE SURFACE DRY-LINE
SLIGHTLY WEST OF PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS...NOW OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE WESTWARD JUST BEHIND THIS SURFACE FRONT
GENERATING AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOWER ATMOSPHERIC
TURNING OR HELICITY WILL INCREASE TO SEVERAL HUNDRED UNITS OR
GREATER WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MODEST
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS UPSTAIRS. THERE MAY BE A SHORT WINDOW
FOR A TORNADIC THREAT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS PROBABLY WILL
REMAIN TOO ELEVATED FOR AS LARGE A THREAT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE DRY-LINE ALTHOUGH TURNING WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL IN THIS AREA AS
WELL.

ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE EVENT LATER TODAY PROBABLY
WILL MERGE INTO A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA BY EARLY IN THE EVENING...PRESSING TO THE SOUTHEAST
LATER IN THE EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL ALSO MORPH MORE
INTO HIGH WINDS AND HAIL DURING THE EVENING. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
ALSO WILL OCCUR EARLY AS HIGH-PRECIPITATION SUPER-CELLS MAY
DEVELOP...WHILE EXTENDING AS WELL INTO THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PHASE
DURING THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...STRONG OUTFLOW EAST OR SOUTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...BEFORE TAPERING OVERNIGHT. WE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON IN SOLID CHANCE CATEGORY NEAR
THE DRY-LINE...AND ALSO DURING THE EVENING FROM CENTRAL AREAS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE GRID FIELDS.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
LINGERING CONVECTION MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS FOLLOWING SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MENTIONED ABOVE DIVES SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE COLD POOL DOMINANT AT THIS POINT AND SUBSEQUENTLY FALL APART AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL COMMENCE ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE DRYLINE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
POSITION NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE OR ACROSS THE BORDER INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. INITIATION WILL BE FARTHER WEST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION DUE TO THE WESTERN PROXIMITY OF THE
DRYLINE. MAY SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP AND GET CAUGHT UP IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT AS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO KEEP SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE DRYLINE
PULLED BACK ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...PROMOTING DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LOOKS TO FINALLY KICK OUT
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY MIDWEEK.
DETAILS AS TO LEAD IMPULSES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO
BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE DAY FAVORING THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
AS IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS MAY ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO MIX
FARTHER EAST AND CONFINE STORM CHANCES MORESO TO THE ROLLING PLAINS
AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. NONETHELESS...THOUGHT THIS WARRANTED
ADDING LOW END MENTIONABLE POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS...PUSHING THEM FARTHER EAST EACH DAY. DID NOT MAKE MANY
CHANGES TO ONGOING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS DECREASED DIURNAL
RANGES SEEM LIKELY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  59  82  60  82 /  30  30  50  30  20
TULIA         88  61  83  62  82 /  60  50  50  30  20
PLAINVIEW     92  62  84  63  82 /  60  60  50  30  20
LEVELLAND     94  62  84  64  82 /  40  50  50  30  20
LUBBOCK       94  62  86  65  83 /  30  60  50  30  20
DENVER CITY   93  62  85  64  82 /  30  30  50  30  20
BROWNFIELD    93  62  86  65  83 /  30  50  50  30  20
CHILDRESS     89  64  85  66  84 /  60  60  30  30  20
SPUR          94  64  87  66  83 /  30  60  50  30  20
ASPERMONT     95  67  87  67  84 /  20  60  30  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33

000
FXUS64 KHGX 231557
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1057 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FOR THE UPDATE...MAINLY JUST FOR
INLAND PORTIONS OF SE TX FOR THE AFTN/EARLY EVE HOURS. ISOLATED
PCPN YESTERDAY EVE ALONG WITH THE BREAKABLE CAPS (DEPICTED FROM
LOCAL 12Z SOUNDINGS) AND SHORT TERM MODELS ALL PLAYING INTO THE
CHANGES FOR THE AFTN GRIDS. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A BREAKABLE CAP SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER EAST TEXAS BUT
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE JUST DOESN`T LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE STRONG CAPPING TO LIMIT CONVECTION. A SUBTLE WEAKNESS AT
500 MB WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SAT/SUN. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS SUBSIDENT
AND RELATIVELY DRY OVER SE TX. MEX NUMBERS LOOK A LITTLE COOL
CONSIDERING THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO WENT A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN MEX GUIDANCE. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  72  90  70  90 /  20  20  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  72  90  71  89 /  20  20  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  74  83  73  84 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KFWD 231356 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
856 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED THE MORNING POPS SOUTHWARD DUE TO EXPECTED CONTINUATION
SOUTH OF THE THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS STORM SHOULD
SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME WITH THE LOSS OF THE NOCTURNAL LLJ.
HOWEVER...MUCAPES ACROSS THE AREA ARE NEAR 3000 J/KG WHICH COULD
KEEP THE ACTIVITY ALIVE DESPITE THE LOSS IN LIFT. MAY HAVE TO DO
AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE TO PLACE POPS IN THE FORECAST FURTHER SOUTH
IF THE STORM CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS RICH
GULF MOISTURE HAS SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THE CEILINGS
TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z /10 AM CDT/ BEFORE THE STRATUS LIFTS
AND SCATTERS OUT. SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES...
BUT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 4-5SM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PERSISTENT.

SCATTERED CUMULI ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG MAY SUN
PROMOTES MIXING WITH CLOUD BASES RISING TO OVER 3000 FT. A REPEAT
OF THE LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST AT ALL SITES TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MVFR
CATEGORY WITH BKN012-BKN018 FORECAST AFTER 10Z /5AM CDT/ FRIDAY.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES TODAY
WILL BE LIMITED. THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE KPRX AREA LATER
THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE IMPACTS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF DFW
METRO AIRPORTS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A CLUSTER OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN WEST
TEXAS AND SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT
LATER FORECASTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN
CASE THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS FARTHER EAST THAN FORECAST. 09


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IS INCREASING DEW
POINTS THROUGHOUT MOST OF TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK
WARM FRONT IS LOCATED THIS MORNING NEAR THE RED RIVER AND CONVECTION IS
STARTING TO FORM IN SOUTHERN OK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ADVECT THE
STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.

PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS QUITE DIFFICULT DUE
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE WEAK FORCING AND DETERMINING
THE LOCATIONS WHERE STORMS WILL OCCUR. THE WEAK RIDGING OVER TX
IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO CAP OFF
CONVECTION AND MODEL POP SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA RANGE FROM DRY TO
STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL LAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SHOULD MODELS BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION...THE
LOW POPS CURRENTLY FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE RAISED FOR THE AREAS
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE LIKELY.

THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG THE GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTION WILL BREAK OUT NEAR THE DRY LINE IN WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SORT OF MCS MOVING SOUTH AND SPREADING EAST
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
IN THE SOUTHWARD MOVING MCS THAN THE CONVECTION SPREADING
EAST...SO I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
CONVECTION MAY INITIALLY AFFECT NORTHWEST COUNTIES...EXPANDING
OVERNIGHT TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NORTH TX
AREA ON FRIDAY.

THE PROCESS MAY REPEAT ITSELF FRIDAY EVENING...WITH LOW POPS
LINGERING IN THE NORTHERN HALF SATURDAY AND ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
CONVECTION DOES FORM AND EVOLVE INTO AN MCS...AND WHAT DIRECTION
IT MOVES.

WITH SOUTH FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S/90S AND MORNING
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/70S. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON WHERE AND TO WHAT EXTENT CONVECTION OCCURS.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY...EXTENDING SOUTH TO
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND I ADDED LOW POPS TO THE
GRIDS FOR THOSE TWO DAYS. 84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  72  86  71  85 /  20  20  20  10  20
WACO, TX              90  73  88  69  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             85  68  81  69  82 /  40  20  20  10  20
DENTON, TX            87  70  84  70  83 /  20  20  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          88  70  85  70  84 /  30  20  20  10  20
DALLAS, TX            90  73  88  72  87 /  20  20  20  10  20
TERRELL, TX           89  71  87  70  87 /  20  20  20  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         90  71  89  70  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            90  72  87  69  86 /  10  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     91  71  86  70  84 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

85/85

000
FXUS64 KLUB 231243
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
743 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT BOUNDARY EDGING THROUGH KCDS THOUGH NOT MUCH NOTICEABLE
WIND SHIFT. BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL ABOUT 40 MILES OR SO NORTH OF
KLBB LATER TODAY BUT WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD SAG INTO BOTH TAF
SITES WITH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BETTER HANDLED IN SHORTER TERM
TAF UPDATE IF NECESSARY. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THIS EVENING SOUTH OF KCDS AND SOUTHEAST OF KLBB
WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AT KLBB. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES
APPEARS TO BE A THREAT FOR LATER TODAY AND REMAINS OUR PRIMARY FOCUS.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT STILL SHOULD EASE SOUTHWARD INTO
OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND MID-DAY BEFORE LOSING ITS PUSH. TO THE
NORTHEAST...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL PUSH TO THE SOUTHWEST
FOR THIS FRONT. GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAS EDGED THE SURFACE DRY-LINE
SLIGHTLY WEST OF PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS...NOW OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE WESTWARD JUST BEHIND THIS SURFACE FRONT
GENERATING AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOWER ATMOSPHERIC
TURNING OR HELICITY WILL INCREASE TO SEVERAL HUNDRED UNITS OR
GREATER WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MODEST
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS UPSTAIRS. THERE MAY BE A SHORT WINDOW
FOR A TORNADIC THREAT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS PROBABLY WILL
REMAIN TOO ELEVATED FOR AS LARGE A THREAT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE DRY-LINE ALTHOUGH TURNING WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL IN THIS AREA AS
WELL.

ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE EVENT LATER TODAY PROBABLY
WILL MERGE INTO A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA BY EARLY IN THE EVENING...PRESSING TO THE SOUTHEAST
LATER IN THE EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL ALSO MORPH MORE
INTO HIGH WINDS AND HAIL DURING THE EVENING. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
ALSO WILL OCCUR EARLY AS HIGH-PRECIPITATION SUPER-CELLS MAY
DEVELOP...WHILE EXTENDING AS WELL INTO THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PHASE
DURING THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...STRONG OUTFLOW EAST OR SOUTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...BEFORE TAPERING OVERNIGHT. WE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON IN SOLID CHANCE CATEGORY NEAR
THE DRY-LINE...AND ALSO DURING THE EVENING FROM CENTRAL AREAS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE GRID FIELDS.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
LINGERING CONVECTION MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS FOLLOWING SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MENTIONED ABOVE DIVES SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE COLD POOL DOMINANT AT THIS POINT AND SUBSEQUENTLY FALL APART AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL COMMENCE ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE DRYLINE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
POSITION NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE OR ACROSS THE BORDER INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. INITIATION WILL BE FARTHER WEST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION DUE TO THE WESTERN PROXIMITY OF THE
DRYLINE. MAY SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP AND GET CAUGHT UP IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT AS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO KEEP SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE DRYLINE
PULLED BACK ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...PROMOTING DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LOOKS TO FINALLY KICK OUT
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY MIDWEEK.
DETAILS AS TO LEAD IMPULSES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO
BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE DAY FAVORING THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
AS IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS MAY ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO MIX
FARTHER EAST AND CONFINE STORM CHANCES MORESO TO THE ROLLING PLAINS
AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. NONETHELESS...THOUGHT THIS WARRANTED
ADDING LOW END MENTIONABLE POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS...PUSHING THEM FARTHER EAST EACH DAY. DID NOT MAKE MANY
CHANGES TO ONGOING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS DECREASED DIURNAL
RANGES SEEM LIKELY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  59  82  60  82 /  30  30  50  30  20
TULIA         88  61  83  62  82 /  60  50  50  30  20
PLAINVIEW     92  62  84  63  82 /  60  60  50  30  20
LEVELLAND     94  62  84  64  82 /  40  50  50  30  20
LUBBOCK       94  62  86  65  83 /  30  60  50  30  20
DENVER CITY   93  62  85  64  82 /  30  30  50  30  20
BROWNFIELD    93  62  86  65  83 /  30  50  50  30  20
CHILDRESS     89  64  85  66  84 /  60  60  30  30  20
SPUR          94  64  87  66  83 /  30  60  50  30  20
ASPERMONT     95  67  87  67  84 /  20  60  30  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05

000
FXUS64 KSJT 231201 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
701 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUD FIELD /WITH MVFR CEILINGS/ IS EXPANDING NORTHWEST INTO
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. CARRYING LOW CLOUD GROUPS
AT KJCT AND KSOA...WITH TEMPO LOW CLOUD GROUPS AT KBBD AND KSJT...
FROM 12Z TO 15Z. HAVE A TEMPO SCATTERED MENTION AT KABI. WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT FOG/HAZE IS
LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE RANGE OF 4-6
STATUTE MILES. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUD FIELD TO ERODE BY MID-LATE
MORNING WITH A VFR-BASED CUMULUS FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED
AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THIS MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES. HAVE UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
OPTING AT THIS TIME TO CARRY VCTS AT KABI AFTER 0530Z...AND AT KSJT
AFTER 0730Z. REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS /WITH MVFR CEILINGS/ IS
EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...AND WITH
POPS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND EXPECT THE
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY 12Z. THE COLUMN WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN TODAY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.3
INCHES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
BY MID-LATE MORNING...WITH HOT AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMER
READINGS ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY.

ALTHOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
TODAY...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...IN THE VICINITY
OF WHERE THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE
DRYLINE. OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL DURING
THE EVENING. STORMS WHICH INITIALLY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY EVENING
WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MODELS INDICATE THAT STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/...BUT HAVE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SUBSEQUENT
TRACK. ONE POSSIBILITY IS FOR THE MCS TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
IS FOR THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO DEVELOP MORE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. WHILE TAKING A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH TO POPS AT THIS TIME...HAVE THE HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE
WESTERN BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTENDING AS
FAR SOUTHEAST AS A COLEMAN TO SONORA LINE. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO BE
MADE TO THE POPS LATER TODAY WITH NEW MODEL DATA AND AS CONVECTIVE
TRENDS BECOME BETTER DISCERNED. IF A MCS DEVELOPS WITH A DECENT COLD
POOL...COULD HAVE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE/GUST FRONT
DURING THE EVENING.

WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SLOWLY PROPAGATING MCS OR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE THE MODELS MAY
BE HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE BULLSEYE QPF
PATTERNS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST/WARNING AREA...THE
CONSISTENCY AMONG THE MODELS /IN CURRENT AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
OF THE NAM AND GFS/ IN SHOWING THIS PATTERN IS WORTH NOTING.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS...JUST DUE TO THE FACT THAT SO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
RELIES ON WHAT HAPPENS THURSDAY NIGHT. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE INDUCED VORT MAY WELL BE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MODELS ALL SUGGESTING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE THE MAIN AREAS TO
FOCUS ON...WITH THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND THE HEARTLAND STILL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE...AND SEE IF WE CAN GET
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OT STORM LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT AT
THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS THE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN US FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOUTHWEST GLOW ALOFT FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS
SYSTEM MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY TO ADD RAIN
CHANCE TO THE AREA...BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE OFTEN A LITTLE SLOWER
TO COME OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...SO WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  94  70  89  68  86 /   5  30  30  30  20
SAN ANGELO  96  70  89  68  88 /   5  30  30  30  20
JUNCTION  92  70  89  69  86 /   0  10  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KAMA 231158 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
658 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A RATHER COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE FCST NEXT
24 HOURS. A STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE SRN
TX PNHDL THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TSTMS SHOULD BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT... AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT KAMA FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OMITTED MENTION OF TSTMS
AT KGUY AND KDHT AS THE CHANCE WILL BE LESS ACROSS NRN TX AND OK
PNHDLS. SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD ALSO BE HIGHEST IN SRN TX PNHDL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL WILL ALSO
INCREASE AT ALL TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CIGS
AT ALL TERMINAL SITES FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IFR CIGS CERTAINLY A PSBLTY
DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PRECIP AMOUNTS...AND
WILL DEFER THAT CONSIDERATION TO LATER SHIFTS.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...
FOR ONCE FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NEARLY ALL OF
THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE EXPECTED PATTERN TODAY. COLD FRONT
HAS NEARLY ENTERED THE OK PANHANDLE. THE EXACT LOCATION WHERE THE
FRONT WILL STALL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH THE LATEST NAM SHOWING
THE FRONT MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE BY OR JUST AFTER
00Z. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SOLUTION THAT IT WILL
STALL NEAR DALHART...JUST NORTH OF AMARILLO...AND NEAR
CLARENDON..SINCE THIS HAS HAD THE MOST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
ANOTHER INGREDIENT THAT WE ARE STILL WAITING ON IS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEW POINT TEMPS BY 18Z IN THE MID
60S. HOWEVER...AT THIS HOUR...DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION. FEEL RELATIVELY CONFIDENT THAT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS ADVERTISED WITH THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW. AND ONE MORE THING WE WILL BE
WATCHING IS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH HELPING TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE...AT LEAST IN THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...AND PROVIDING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. HAVING SAID ALL THAT...STILL THINK THE INGREDIENTS WILL
COME TOGETHER FOR A SEVERE STORM THREAT BY 21 TO 00Z. AS FOR WHAT
HAZARDS WE ARE CONCERNED WITH:

HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...WITH OUT A DOUBT THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST
THREAT. EXPECT CAPE VALUES TO BE QUITE LARGE...BY SOME MODELS THERE ARE
ML CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE...GENERALLY 25 TO 35 KT...THOUGH ALONG THE NM/TX STATE
LINE SHEAR VALUES COULD BE OVER 50KT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERSISTENT
UPDRAFTS. THE MAIN PERIOD FOR THIS THREAT WILL BE FROM SHORTLY AFTER
THE STORMS DEVELOP...3 OR 4 PM CDT...THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM AS CAPE
VALUES DECREASE AND STORMS BECOME ELEVATED.

FLASH FLOODING...BECOMING MORE CONCERNED WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTH EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS
MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
VERY INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING STORM MOTIONS OF RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELLS IN THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE TO BE BETWEEN 0 AND 8KT. ALSO
IF ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TRAIN ALONG OR BACK BUILD ON THE
FRONT...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LONG DURATION RAINFALL. THESE
FACTORS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT THE ISSUE OF INEFFICIENCY. HAVING
SAID ALL THAT HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF STORMS ARE
PRIMARILY LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS OR COMPLEXES THAT MOVE WITH THE MEAN
FLOW...STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE FAST ENOUGH TO GENERALLY MITIGATE THE
FLASH FLOODING CONCERN.

TORNADOES...AS MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE THREAT PERIOD
FOR THIS WILL BE RATHER BRIEF...AND SHOULD BE PRIMARILY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS THREAT WILL
BE THE LCLS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW ONLY A BRIEF
PERIOD...CENTERED AROUND 00Z WHEN THE LCLS WILL BE BELOW 2000 FT AGL.
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING THAT THE THREAT FOR THIS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM CDT.

LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET SHOULD DEVELOP
BY 06Z TONIGHT...BRINGING NEEDED MOISTURE RETURN. HOWEVER...HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH.
IF THIS COMPLEX IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH...IT COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE
RETURN...LIMITING HOW LATE THE CONVECTION WOULD LAST. TOMORROW IS
ALSO RATHER CONDITIONAL. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE LOW CLOUDS
THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THESE LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST...THIS COULD LIMIT HEATING...AND THUS CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. HOWEVER...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT
LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT.

LONG TERM...
BEYOND FRIDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE REGION WILL STAY IN AN UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN...WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS...AND A PERSISTENT DRY LINE PROVIDING MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOW LONG THIS PATTERN HOLDS IS DEPENDENT ON HOW
QUICKLY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST...AND THAT IS
RATHER UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE TO OUR
EAST...FORECAST FAVORS THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION OVER THE GFS. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS SOLUTION IS THAT FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE VERY MERIDIONAL...WHICH SHOULD
MEAN THE DRY LINE ISN/T LIKELY TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ANY TIME SOON.
FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED POPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. BUT IF THE PATTERN IS AS THE ECMWF SHOWS...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL.

JOHNSON

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVELY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

JOHNSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KFWD 231142 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
642 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS RICH
GULF MOISTURE HAS SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THE CEILINGS
TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z /10 AM CDT/ BEFORE THE STRATUS LIFTS
AND SCATTERS OUT. SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES...
BUT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 4-5SM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PERSISTENT.

SCATTERED CUMULI ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG MAY SUN
PROMOTES MIXING WITH CLOUD BASES RISING TO OVER 3000 FT. A REPEAT
OF THE LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST AT ALL SITES TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MVFR
CATEGORY WITH BKN012-BKN018 FORECAST AFTER 10Z /5AM CDT/ FRIDAY.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES TODAY
WILL BE LIMITED. THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE KPRX AREA LATER
THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE IMPACTS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF DFW
METRO AIRPORTS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A CLUSTER OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN WEST
TEXAS AND SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT
LATER FORECASTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN
CASE THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS FARTHER EAST THAN FORECAST. 09

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IS INCREASING DEW
POINTS THROUGHOUT MOST OF TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK
WARM FRONT IS LOCATED THIS MORNING NEAR THE RED RIVER AND CONVECTION IS
STARTING TO FORM IN SOUTHERN OK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ADVECT THE
STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.

PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS QUITE DIFFICULT DUE
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE WEAK FORCING AND DETERMINING
THE LOCATIONS WHERE STORMS WILL OCCUR. THE WEAK RIDGING OVER TX
IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO CAP OFF
CONVECTION AND MODEL POP SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA RANGE FROM DRY TO
STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL LAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SHOULD MODELS BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION...THE
LOW POPS CURRENTLY FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE RAISED FOR THE AREAS
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE LIKELY.

THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG THE GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTION WILL BREAK OUT NEAR THE DRY LINE IN WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SORT OF MCS MOVING SOUTH AND SPREADING EAST
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
IN THE SOUTHWARD MOVING MCS THAN THE CONVECTION SPREADING
EAST...SO I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
CONVECTION MAY INITIALLY AFFECT NORTHWEST COUNTIES...EXPANDING
OVERNIGHT TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NORTH TX
AREA ON FRIDAY.

THE PROCESS MAY REPEAT ITSELF FRIDAY EVENING...WITH LOW POPS
LINGERING IN THE NORTHERN HALF SATURDAY AND ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
CONVECTION DOES FORM AND EVOLVE INTO AN MCS...AND WHAT DIRECTION
IT MOVES.

WITH SOUTH FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S/90S AND MORNING
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/70S. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON WHERE AND TO WHAT EXTENT CONVECTION OCCURS.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY...EXTENDING SOUTH TO
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND I ADDED LOW POPS TO THE
GRIDS FOR THOSE TWO DAYS. 84

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  72  86  71  85 /  10  20  20  10  20
WACO, TX              90  73  88  69  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             85  68  81  69  82 /  40  20  20  10  20
DENTON, TX            87  70  84  70  83 /  10  20  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          88  70  85  70  84 /  10  20  20  10  20
DALLAS, TX            90  73  88  72  87 /  10  20  20  10  20
TERRELL, TX           89  71  87  70  87 /  10  20  20  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         90  71  89  70  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            90  72  87  69  86 /  10  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     91  71  86  70  84 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KEWX 231140
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
640 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...
STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY EARLY MORNING IFR
CIGS WILL LIFT AND BECOME FEW-SCT VFR CUMULUS AND CIRRUS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
AND PATCHY LATE NIGHT IFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. PATCHY BR/HZ WITH MVFR VSBYS MAY PERSIST
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 12 KTS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 KTS LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASE TO 5 TO
12 KTS TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT 08Z THE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE LOOP DEPICTED STRATUS OVERSPREADING
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SUPPLANTED BY
A FEW AFTERNOON CU TOPPED BY SCATTERED CIRRIFORM CLOUDS. THE HAZE
WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO SMOKE FROM SEASONAL FIRES ACROSS MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID/UPPER 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
LOW CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S TO SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GULF. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ON FRIDAY AS THE 00Z
HI-RES MODELS AND 06Z NAM12 MODEL DEPICT A WEAKENING MCS MOVING
SE INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NE
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY ASSIST IN
ALLOWING THE CONVECTION TO HOLD TOGETHER...MOVING ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE. OTHERWISE THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER TEXAS BREAKS DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  72  93  72  93 /   0   0  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  71  91  71  92 /   0   0  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     93  71  92  70  92 /   0   0  10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            91  69  89  69  89 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  75  94  75  93 /   0   0  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  70  89  70  90 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             96  73  94  73  92 /   0   0  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  72  91  72  91 /   0   0  10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  73  90 /   0   0  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       93  73  92  73  91 /   0   0  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           93  73  92  73  91 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13

000
FXUS64 KCRP 231134 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
634 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS HAVE NOT LOWERED AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED WITH
MOST OF THE AREA WITH MVFR CEILINGS FROM 1500-2000 FEET. THERE ARE
EVEN SOME BREAKS EVIDENT ON LOW CLOUD/FOG LOOP OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN RESTRICTED THIS MORNING
EITHER...BUT OBSERVATIONS OVER THE GULF SHOW LOWER VSBYS IN
HAZE/SMOKE AND EXPECT SOME OF THIS HAZE WILL REACH THE COASTAL
PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO ABOVE 2 KFT
AROUND 15Z AND LIFT TO VFR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SCATTER
OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRATUS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
COASTAL PLAINS BY 03-04Z AND LRD BY 07Z. KEPT CIGS AT MVFR FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXCEPT VCT AREA WHERE IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM
MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST OVER SOUTH TEXAS LATER TODAY.
MORNING STRATUS WILL SCATTER IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SMOKE/HAZE
OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION ALSO. AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN NEW MEXICO DURING THE PERIOD SO DO NOT
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE ABOVE MODERATE LEVELS. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
FRIDAY AND THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
GENERATE CONVECTION ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN THAT COULD MOVE CLOSE TO
THE RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THE
MOMENT...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT AND LEAVE OUT WORDING
IN THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW DVLPG ACROSS W TX AND SLOWLY MOVG E FRI
NIGHT/SAT. MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE W CWA
OR AT LEAST CLOSE TO THE AREA BY SAT MORNING. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE
CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENING ON SAT. AIRMASS IS PROGD TO BE UNSTABLE
AND PWAT`S ARE PROGD TO INCREASE TO ABV 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE W CWA.
NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR COT HAS AROUND 50 PERCENT CHC OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER...THE GFS MOS IS ONLY 20 PERCENT. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP
FOR THE WESTERN CWA FOR SAT BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER AS
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THERE`S LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF LOW LEVEL FORCING OTHER THAN SOME WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE W CWA. MODELS KEEP AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS DRAPED ACROSS SE AND
S TX SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON THE LESS FAVORABLE W SIDE OF THE TROF. A DRIER
AIRMASS IS PRGD TO BE ACROSS THE E CWA AND GULF WATERS THRU THE
WEEKEND. KEPT A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS THE W FOR SUNDAY DUE TO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROGD TO BE ACROSS MEX AND THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. RIDGING ALOFT THEN TAKES HOLD MON/TUE WITH LITTLE TO
NO PRECIP EXPECTED. WARMER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED FOR MON/TUE
TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING E AS A LOW
SWINGS ACROSS THE W U.S. RESULTING IN DEEPER MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED
INTO S TX BY WED. FOR NOW WENT WITH SILENT 10 POPS FOR WED BUT IF
THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED. AS FOR
WINDS...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BY NEXT TUE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  76  87  76  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          90  73  88  73  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            98  77  97  77  97  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             92  75  91  75  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  76  84  76  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           96  74  95  73  97  /  10  10  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        90  76  90  75  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  77  84  76  84  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION

000
FXUS64 KBRO 231123 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
623 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING. AGRICULTURAL BURNING ACROSS
MEXICO MAY PROVIDE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES DUE TO HAZE
THIS MORNING. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY LATE THIS MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS AND
BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS MOVES BACK ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CEILING POSSIBLE AROUND 3Z
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID AND UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT
TODAY AND FRIDAY.  AGRICULTURAL BURNING IN MEXICO WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN PERIODS OF HAZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST...THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT/SCATTER
OUT AS DAYTIME HEATING AND WINDS INCREASE BY LATE MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S AT THE BEACHES...LOW
TO MID 90S IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND UPPER 90S OVER THE WEST.
MOSTLY CLOUDY...CONTINUED MILD AND HUMID TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A LITTLE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM. 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA...THE NORTHERN HALF
OF MEXICO...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND EXTENDED
OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ONE POTENTIAL ADJUSTMENT THAT MAY
NEED TO BE MADE IN THE NEAR FUTURE IS THE INCLUSION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE BRO CWFA...AS A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH TRANSITS
OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND...INITIATING CONVECTION THAT MAY SNEAK INTO
ZAPATA...STARR...AND JIM HOGG COUNTY ON SATURDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AREAS OF HAZE WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM
AGRICULTURAL BURNING IN MEXICO CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE...AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

63

000
FXUS64 KHGX 231117
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
617 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...

SEEING A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS...AS WELL AS PATCHY LIFR
FOG THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND MID-MORNING WITH
SOME MIXING. SE WINDS 8-12 KTS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING.
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO RETURN THU NIGHT. 33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A BREAKABLE CAP SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER EAST TEXAS BUT
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE JUST DOESN`T LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE STRONG CAPPING TO LIMIT CONVECTION. A SUBTLE WEAKNESS AT
500 MB WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SAT/SUN. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS SUBSIDENT
AND RELATIVELY DRY OVER SE TX. MEX NUMBERS LOOK A LITTLE COOL
CONSIDERING THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO WENT A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN MEX GUIDANCE. 43

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA COUPLED
WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND ELEVATE WAVE
HEIGHTS AND WINDS TO CAUTION LEVELS OFFSHORE. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  72  90  70  90 /  10  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  72  90  71  89 /  10  10  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  74  83  73  84 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...33

000
FXUS64 KMAF 231014
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
514 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD 16Z-19Z
THURSDAY...W/BASES 6-13KFT AGL. MODELS THEN DEVELOP CONVECTION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT PLAINS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AROUND
18Z...AND BRING AN IMPRESSIVE MCS OUT OF THE NORTH AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY...MAINTAINED BY ANOTHER LLJ INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION OUT
WEST FIRST...AND THEN THE NOCTURNAL MCS OVERNIGHT...IMPACTING
EASTERN TERMINALS. BUFFER SOUNDINGS BRING A STRATUS DECK INTO THE
EASTERN TERMINALS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT CIGS
SHOULD STAY ABV 3KFT AGL UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WAY UP AS WE TRANSITION
INTO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. WV IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WHILE GULF MOISTURE AT THE SFC
SPREADS WEST ACROSS THE AREA. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN
NM AND FAR WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK FRONT STALLS IN THE
TX PANHANDLE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FIRST STORMS WILL
INITIATE OVER PARTS OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AROUND LUNCHTIME OWING TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. MORE STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SE NM AND AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ~8 C/KM AND
CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG WILL HELP SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE STORMS
CONTAINING SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER...MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL PREVENT ANY STORM FROM GETTING TOO ORGANIZED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND
GFS DEVELOP AN MCS OFF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE IT SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF THE REGION DRY
WITH PRECIP WELL TO OUR EAST. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE NAM AND GFS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS REGARDING
TODAY`S CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS AND INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. STILL EXPECT CHANGES TO BE MADE TO THE
FORECAST TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL DATA. PWATS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH NEAR 2SD ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS EVENING SO WILL ALSO ADD
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR TONIGHT.

DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS TONIGHT, THERE COULD BE SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO TELL WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SET UP, BUT THEY COULD HELP
FOCUS CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE, BUT TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AN EXACT LOCATION.
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A S/W EJECTS OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS
REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM
AFTERNOONS AND MUGGY MORNINGS.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

000
FXUS64 KMAF 230958
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
458 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WAY UP AS WE TRANSITION
INTO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. WV IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WHILE GULF MOISTURE AT THE SFC
SPREADS WEST ACROSS THE AREA. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN
NM AND FAR WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK FRONT STALLS IN THE
TX PANHANDLE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FIRST STORMS WILL
INITIATE OVER PARTS OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AROUND LUNCHTIME OWING TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. MORE STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SE NM AND AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ~8 C/KM AND
CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG WILL HELP SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE STORMS
CONTAINING SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER...MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL PREVENT ANY STORM FROM GETTING TOO ORGANIZED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND
GFS DEVELOP AN MCS OFF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE IT SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF THE REGION DRY
WITH PRECIP WELL TO OUR EAST. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE NAM AND GFS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS REGARDING
TODAY`S CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS AND INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. STILL EXPECT CHANGES TO BE MADE TO THE
FORECAST TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL DATA. PWATS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH NEAR 2SD ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS EVENING SO WILL ALSO ADD
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR TONIGHT.

DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS TONIGHT, THERE COULD BE SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO TELL WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SET UP, BUT THEY COULD HELP
FOCUS CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE, BUT TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AN EXACT LOCATION.
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A S/W EJECTS OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS
REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM
AFTERNOONS AND MUGGY MORNINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  68  84  65  /  20  40  30  40
BIG SPRING TX              97  69  86  67  /  20  40  30  40
CARLSBAD NM                99  69  90  63  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  97  72  86  68  /  10  20  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  69  85  67  /  20  30  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          90  62  84  61  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   93  65  83  62  /  20  30  30  30
MARFA TX                   91  59  81  57  /  20  30  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    96  69  83  66  /  20  40  30  40
ODESSA TX                  96  70  84  67  /  20  40  30  40
WINK TX                    98  71  88  69  /  20  30  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/29

000
FXUS64 KLUB 230946
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
446 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES
APPEARS TO BE A THREAT FOR LATER TODAY AND REMAINS OUR PRIMARY FOCUS.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT STILL SHOULD EASE SOUTHWARD INTO
OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND MID-DAY BEFORE LOSING ITS PUSH. TO THE
NORTHEAST...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL PUSH TO THE SOUTHWEST
FOR THIS FRONT. GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAS EDGED THE SURFACE DRY-LINE
SLIGHTLY WEST OF PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS...NOW OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE WESTWARD JUST BEHIND THIS SURFACE FRONT
GENERATING AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOWER ATMOSPHERIC
TURNING OR HELICITY WILL INCREASE TO SEVERAL HUNDRED UNITS OR
GREATER WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MODEST
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS UPSTAIRS. THERE MAY BE A SHORT WINDOW
FOR A TORNADIC THREAT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS PROBABLY WILL
REMAIN TOO ELEVATED FOR AS LARGE A THREAT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE DRY-LINE ALTHOUGH TURNING WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL IN THIS AREA AS
WELL.

ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE EVENT LATER TODAY PROBABLY
WILL MERGE INTO A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA BY EARLY IN THE EVENING...PRESSING TO THE SOUTHEAST
LATER IN THE EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL ALSO MORPH MORE
INTO HIGH WINDS AND HAIL DURING THE EVENING. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
ALSO WILL OCCUR EARLY AS HIGH-PRECIPITATION SUPER-CELLS MAY
DEVELOP...WHILE EXTENDING AS WELL INTO THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PHASE
DURING THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...STRONG OUTFLOW EAST OR SOUTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...BEFORE TAPERING OVERNIGHT. WE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON IN SOLID CHANCE CATEGORY NEAR
THE DRY-LINE...AND ALSO DURING THE EVENING FROM CENTRAL AREAS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE GRID FIELDS.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
LINGERING CONVECTION MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS FOLLOWING SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MENTIONED ABOVE DIVES SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE COLD POOL DOMINANT AT THIS POINT AND SUBSEQUENTLY FALL APART AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL COMMENCE ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE DRYLINE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
POSITION NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE OR ACROSS THE BORDER INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. INITIATION WILL BE FARTHER WEST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION DUE TO THE WESTERN PROXIMITY OF THE
DRYLINE. MAY SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP AND GET CAUGHT UP IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT AS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO KEEP SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE DRYLINE
PULLED BACK ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...PROMOTING DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LOOKS TO FINALLY KICK OUT
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY MIDWEEK.
DETAILS AS TO LEAD IMPULSES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO
BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE DAY FAVORING THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
AS IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS MAY ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO MIX
FARTHER EAST AND CONFINE STORM CHANCES MORESO TO THE ROLLING PLAINS
AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. NONETHELESS...THOUGHT THIS WARRANTED
ADDING LOW END MENTIONABLE POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS...PUSHING THEM FARTHER EAST EACH DAY. DID NOT MAKE MANY
CHANGES TO ONGOING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS DECREASED DIURNAL
RANGES SEEM LIKELY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  59  82  60  82 /  30  30  50  30  20
TULIA         88  61  83  62  82 /  60  50  50  30  20
PLAINVIEW     92  62  84  63  82 /  60  60  50  30  20
LEVELLAND     94  62  84  64  82 /  40  50  50  30  20
LUBBOCK       94  62  86  65  83 /  30  60  50  30  20
DENVER CITY   93  62  85  64  82 /  30  30  50  30  20
BROWNFIELD    93  62  86  65  83 /  30  50  50  30  20
CHILDRESS     89  64  85  66  84 /  60  60  30  30  20
SPUR          94  64  87  66  83 /  30  60  50  30  20
ASPERMONT     95  67  87  67  84 /  20  60  30  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/31

000
FXUS64 KSJT 230930
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
430 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...AND WITH
POPS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND EXPECT THE
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY 12Z. THE COLUMN WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN TODAY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.3
INCHES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
BY MID-LATE MORNING...WITH HOT AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMER
READINGS ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY.

ALTHOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
TODAY...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...IN THE VICINITY
OF WHERE THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE
DRYLINE. OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL DURING
THE EVENING. STORMS WHICH INITIALLY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY EVENING
WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MODELS INDICATE THAT STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/...BUT HAVE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SUBSEQUENT
TRACK. ONE POSSIBILITY IS FOR THE MCS TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
IS FOR THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO DEVELOP MORE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. WHILE TAKING A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH TO POPS AT THIS TIME...HAVE THE HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE
WESTERN BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTENDING AS
FAR SOUTHEAST AS A COLEMAN TO SONORA LINE. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO BE
MADE TO THE POPS LATER TODAY WITH NEW MODEL DATA AND AS CONVECTIVE
TRENDS BECOME BETTER DISCERNED. IF A MCS DEVELOPS WITH A DECENT COLD
POOL...COULD HAVE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE/GUST FRONT
DURING THE EVENING.

WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SLOWLY PROPAGATING MCS OR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE THE MODELS MAY
BE HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE BULLSEYE QPF
PATTERNS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST/WARNING AREA...THE
CONSISTENCY AMONG THE MODELS /IN CURRENT AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
OF THE NAM AND GFS/ IN SHOWING THIS PATTERN IS WORTH NOTING.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS...JUST DUE TO THE FACT THAT SO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
RELIES ON WHAT HAPPENS THURSDAY NIGHT. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE INDUCED VORT MAY WELL BE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MODELS ALL SUGGESTING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE THE MAIN AREAS TO
FOCUS ON...WITH THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND THE HEARTLAND STILL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE...AND SEE IF WE CAN GET
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OT STORM LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT AT
THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS THE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN US FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOUTHWEST GLOW ALOFT FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS
SYSTEM MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY TO ADD RAIN
CHANCE TO THE AREA...BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE OFTEN A LITTLE SLOWER
TO COME OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...SO WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  93  70  89  68  86 /   5  30  30  30  20
SAN ANGELO  96  70  89  68  88 /   5  30  30  30  20
JUNCTION  92  70  89  69  86 /   0  10  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/07/07

000
FXUS64 KBRO 230930
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
430 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID AND UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT
TODAY AND FRIDAY.  AGRICULTURAL BURNING IN MEXICO WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN PERIODS OF HAZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST...THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT/SCATTER
OUT AS DAYTIME HEATING AND WINDS INCREASE BY LATE MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S AT THE BEACHES...LOW
TO MID 90S IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND UPPER 90S OVER THE WEST.
MOSTLY CLOUDY...CONTINUED MILD AND HUMID TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A LITTLE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM. 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA...THE NORTHERN HALF
OF MEXICO...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND EXTENDED
OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ONE POTENTIAL ADJUSTMENT THAT MAY
NEED TO BE MADE IN THE NEAR FUTURE IS THE INCLUSION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE BRO CWFA...AS A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH TRANSITS
OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND...INITIATING CONVECTION THAT MAY SNEAK INTO
ZAPATA...STARR...AND JIM HOGG COUNTY ON SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AREAS OF HAZE WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM
AGRICULTURAL BURNING IN MEXICO CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE...AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  78  82  78 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          88  77  86  76 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            90  75  88  75 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              94  75  92  76 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      97  76  95  76 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  78  80  78 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...CACERES-63
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
FXC/MESO...CAMPBELL

000
FXUS64 KAMA 230919
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
419 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...
FOR ONCE FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NEARLY ALL OF
THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE EXPECTED PATTERN TODAY. COLD FRONT
HAS NEARLY ENTERED THE OK PANHANDLE. THE EXACT LOCATION WHERE THE
FRONT WILL STALL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH THE LATEST NAM SHOWING
THE FRONT MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE BY OR JUST AFTER
00Z. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SOLUTION THAT IT WILL
STALL NEAR DALHART...JUST NORTH OF AMARILLO...AND NEAR
CLARENDON..SINCE THIS HAS HAD THE MOST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
ANOTHER INGREDIENT THAT WE ARE STILL WAITING ON IS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEW POINT TEMPS BY 18Z IN THE MID
60S. HOWEVER...AT THIS HOUR...DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION. FEEL RELATIVELY CONFIDENT THAT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS ADVERTISED WITH THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW. AND ONE MORE THING WE WILL BE
WATCHING IS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH HELPING TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE...AT LEAST IN THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...AND PROVIDING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. HAVING SAID ALL THAT...STILL THINK THE INGREDIENTS WILL
COME TOGETHER FOR A SEVERE STORM THREAT BY 21 TO 00Z. AS FOR WHAT
HAZARDS WE ARE CONCERNED WITH:

HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...WITH OUT A DOUBT THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST
THREAT. EXPECT CAPE VALUES TO BE QUITE LARGE...BY SOME MODELS THERE ARE
ML CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE...GENERALLY 25 TO 35 KT...THOUGH ALONG THE NM/TX STATE
LINE SHEAR VALUES COULD BE OVER 50KT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERSISTENT
UPDRAFTS. THE MAIN PERIOD FOR THIS THREAT WILL BE FROM SHORTLY AFTER
THE STORMS DEVELOP...3 OR 4 PM CDT...THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM AS CAPE
VALUES DECREASE AND STORMS BECOME ELEVATED.

FLASH FLOODING...BECOMING MORE CONCERNED WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTH EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS
MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
VERY INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING STORM MOTIONS OF RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELLS IN THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE TO BE BETWEEN 0 AND 8KT. ALSO
IF ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TRAIN ALONG OR BACK BUILD ON THE
FRONT...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LONG DURATION RAINFALL. THESE
FACTORS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT THE ISSUE OF INEFFICIENCY. HAVING
SAID ALL THAT HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF STORMS ARE
PRIMARILY LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS OR COMPLEXES THAT MOVE WITH THE MEAN
FLOW...STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE FAST ENOUGH TO GENERALLY MITIGATE THE
FLASH FLOODING CONCERN.

TORNADOES...AS MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE THREAT PERIOD
FOR THIS WILL BE RATHER BRIEF...AND SHOULD BE PRIMARILY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS THREAT WILL
BE THE LCLS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW ONLY A BRIEF
PERIOD...CENTERED AROUND 00Z WHEN THE LCLS WILL BE BELOW 2000 FT AGL.
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING THAT THE THREAT FOR THIS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM CDT.

LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET SHOULD DEVELOP
BY 06Z TONIGHT...BRINGING NEEDED MOISTURE RETURN. HOWEVER...HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH.
IF THIS COMPLEX IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH...IT COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE
RETURN...LIMITING HOW LATE THE CONVECTION WOULD LAST. TOMORROW IS
ALSO RATHER CONDITIONAL. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE LOW CLOUDS
THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THESE LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST...THIS COULD LIMIT HEATING...AND THUS CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. HOWEVER...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT
LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT.


.LONG TERM...
BEYOND FRIDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE REGION WILL STAY IN AN UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN...WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS...AND A PERSISTENT DRY LINE PROVIDING MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOW LONG THIS PATTERN HOLDS IS DEPENDENT ON HOW
QUICKLY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST...AND THAT IS
RATHER UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE TO OUR
EAST...FORECAST FAVORS THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION OVER THE GFS. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS SOLUTION IS THAT FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE VERY MERIDIONAL...WHICH SHOULD
MEAN THE DRY LINE ISN/T LIKELY TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ANY TIME SOON.
FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED POPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. BUT IF THE PATTERN IS AS THE ECMWF SHOWS...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL.

JOHNSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVELY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

JOHNSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                82  61  82  60  82 /  40  50  30  20  20
BEAVER OK                  73  59  84  64  89 /  30  50  30  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              70  58  83  59  87 /  20  20  30  30  20
BORGER TX                  83  64  85  62  84 /  30  50  30  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              85  63  89  63  85 /  30  40  30  30  20
CANYON TX                  86  60  85  61  81 /  40  50  30  20  20
CLARENDON TX               80  64  80  62  81 /  40  50  30  20  20
DALHART TX                 77  57  85  59  85 /  20  30  30  30  20
GUYMON OK                  74  60  83  61  87 /  20  30  30  30  20
HEREFORD TX                88  60  86  60  80 /  30  40  30  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                74  62  81  65  86 /  30  50  30  20  20
PAMPA TX                   80  62  81  60  81 /  40  50  30  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                84  65  82  65  82 /  40  50  30  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              87  67  83  65  83 /  40  50  30  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/16

000
FXUS64 KCRP 230906
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
406 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM
MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST OVER SOUTH TEXAS LATER TODAY.
MORNING STRATUS WILL SCATTER IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SMOKE/HAZE
OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION ALSO. AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN NEW MEXICO DURING THE PERIOD SO DO NOT
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE ABOVE MODERATE LEVELS. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
FRIDAY AND THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
GENERATE CONVECTION ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN THAT COULD MOVE CLOSE TO
THE RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THE
MOMENT...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT AND LEAVE OUT WORDING
IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW DVLPG ACROSS W TX AND SLOWLY MOVG E FRI
NIGHT/SAT. MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE W CWA
OR AT LEAST CLOSE TO THE AREA BY SAT MORNING. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE
CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENING ON SAT. AIRMASS IS PROGD TO BE UNSTABLE
AND PWAT`S ARE PROGD TO INCREASE TO ABV 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE W CWA.
NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR COT HAS AROUND 50 PERCENT CHC OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER...THE GFS MOS IS ONLY 20 PERCENT. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP
FOR THE WESTERN CWA FOR SAT BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER AS
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THERE`S LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF LOW LEVEL FORCING OTHER THAN SOME WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE W CWA. MODELS KEEP AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS DRAPED ACROSS SE AND
S TX SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON THE LESS FAVORABLE W SIDE OF THE TROF. A DRIER
AIRMASS IS PRGD TO BE ACROSS THE E CWA AND GULF WATERS THRU THE
WEEKEND. KEPT A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS THE W FOR SUNDAY DUE TO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROGD TO BE ACROSS MEX AND THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. RIDGING ALOFT THEN TAKES HOLD MON/TUE WITH LITTLE TO
NO PRECIP EXPECTED. WARMER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED FOR MON/TUE
TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING E AS A LOW
SWINGS ACROSS THE W U.S. RESULTING IN DEEPER MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED
INTO S TX BY WED. FOR NOW WENT WITH SILENT 10 POPS FOR WED BUT IF
THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED. AS FOR
WINDS...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BY NEXT TUE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  76  87  76  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          90  73  88  73  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            98  77  97  77  97  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             92  75  91  75  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  76  84  76  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           96  74  95  73  97  /  10  10  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        90  76  90  75  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  77  84  76  84  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM

000
FXUS64 KHGX 230840
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A BREAKABLE CAP SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER EAST TEXAS BUT
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE JUST DOESN`T LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE STRONG CAPPING TO LIMIT CONVECTION. A SUBTLE WEAKNESS AT
500 MB WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SAT/SUN. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS SUBSIDENT
AND RELATIVELY DRY OVER SE TX. MEX NUMBERS LOOK A LITTLE COOL
CONSIDERING THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO WENT A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN MEX GUIDANCE. 43

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA COUPLED
WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND ELEVATE WAVE
HEIGHTS AND WINDS TO CAUTION LEVELS OFFSHORE. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  72  90  70  90 /  10  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  72  90  71  89 /  10  10  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  74  83  73  84 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 230831
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
231 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ALL BUT HUDSPETH COUNTY
QUITE DRY...AND UNSEASONABLY WARM. EXPECT BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.
A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE WILL WORK WESTWARD OVER HUDSPETH AND
EASTERN OTERO COUNTIES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THOSE AREAS TO SEE A
SLIGHT RISK OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. THE MOISTURE
WILL PUSH WEST OVERNIGHT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT WILL CREATE
INSTABILITY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOR BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. DRIER AIR ON STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SWEEP THE MOISTURE OUT ON SUNDAY. THUS
WARM AND DRY WITH WINDY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXACT WESTWARD EXTENT OF A GULF
MOISTURE SURGE. A LARGE NW PAC LOW WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
HAS PLACED OUR REGION UNDER A DEEP DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING HAS ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN NM PLAINS.
THIS FEATURE IS AIDING A WESTWARD SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE ON SE
WINDS ACROSS TX AND HELPING TO INCREASE SW WINDS INTO THE BREEZY
CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TODAY THE AREA WILL SEE
CONTINUED BOUTS WITH HIGH CLOUDS...BUT VERY DRY AIR. SOMEWHAT
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LOWLANDS SEEING MID TO UPPER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON.

TODAY IS APPEARS THAT THE DRYLINE/GULF MOIST SURGE WILL BACK INTO
HUDSPETH CO AND POSSIBLY INTO E OTERO COUNTY. THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INDUCES SOME INSTABILITY IN THE DAYTIME HEATING. THUS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR SOME POP POTENTIAL OVER A FAR EASTERN SLIVER OF THOSE COUNTIES.

TONIGHT THE MOIST PUSH PRESSES WEST WITH A DRYLINE SET UP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL.
OTHER MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT HERE. THUS FOR FRIDAY...THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXPANDS FROM THE EASTERN EDGE
OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO EL PASO COUNTY AS WELL AS EASTERN SIERRA
AND DONA ANA COUNTIES. THESE WILL BE HEAT INDUCED STORMS AIDED BY
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THUS POPS IN
THE PM HOURS AND INTO THE NIGHT. THIS SAME SCENARIO PLAYS OUT
AGAIN FOR A VERY SIMILAR FORECAST AGAIN SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THE WEST COAST LOW/TROUGH BEGINS TO PRESS EAST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND BRING SW WINDS
BACK TO THE EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA WITH VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MOVING BACK OVER ALL ZONES. IN
ADDITION THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND MIXING DEPTHS DEEPEN.
THIS WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOONS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWLANDS FLIRTING WITH THE FIRST 100 DEGREE DAYS OF THE YEAR.
WILD FIRE DANGER WILL INTENSIFY WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS
SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/12Z-24/12Z.
VFR CONDS THRU PD WITH SKC-SCT200-250. GENERALLY W TO SW WINDS
12-18G25KTS DURING DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AND UNDER 10KTS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...DRY LIGHTNING RISK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A WARM PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AS A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETS UP OVER THE REGION. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR WEST
TEXAS AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL
SET THE REGION UP FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
EAST OF IT. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME DRY LIGHTNING NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE DRYLINE WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LESS. FURTHER EAST INTO
HUDSPETH COUNTY GENERALLY WET THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

THROUGH SATURDAY WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS...BUT STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK WINDS WILL PICK UP
AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS SEEING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ANYTIME BETWEEN SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 97  70  93  68  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA           95  66  90  63  91 /  10  20  30  30  20
LAS CRUCES              95  61  92  59  93 /   0   0  10  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              95  61  91  59  92 /  10  10  10  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              71  49  69  46  70 /  10  20  30  30  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   94  64  89  60  90 /   0   0  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             89  55  91  53  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  95  57  93  54  94 /   0   0  10   0   0
LORDSBURG               95  57  91  55  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      95  68  92  68  93 /   0  10  10  10  10
DELL CITY               95  60  92  57  93 /  10  20  30  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            96  68  95  66  96 /  10  10  20  20  10
LOMA LINDA              88  59  86  57  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
FABENS                  96  69  93  66  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
SANTA TERESA            97  63  92  62  93 /   0  10  10  10  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          94  69  90  67  91 /   0  10  10  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           96  52  90  52  91 /   0  10  10  10  10
HATCH                   92  61  88  60  89 /   0   0  10   0  10
COLUMBUS                96  62  92  59  93 /   0   0  10   0   0
OROGRANDE               98  61  93  59  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
MAYHILL                 82  57  78  54  79 /  10  20  40  40  30
MESCALERO               84  48  81  45  82 /  10  10  30  30  20
TIMBERON                82  49  79  46  80 /  10  10  30  30  20
WINSTON                 85  49  82  46  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               90  57  85  54  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               94  57  88  57  89 /   0   0  10  10  10
LAKE ROBERTS            86  49  83  46  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  89  58  87  57  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   94  52  93  49  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              91  42  90  39  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 90  57  85  54  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  95  59  92  55  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 94  56  93  54  93 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          95  60  93  57  93 /   0   0  10   0   0
CLOVERDALE              90  55  89  52  89 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD

000
FXUS64 KEWX 230815
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
315 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT 08Z THE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE LOOP DEPICTED STRATUS OVERSPREADING
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SUPPLANTED BY
A FEW AFTERNOON CU TOPPED BY SCATTERED CIRRIFORM CLOUDS. THE HAZE
WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO SMOKE FROM SEASONAL FIRES ACROSS MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID/UPPER 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
LOW CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S TO SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GULF. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ON FRIDAY AS THE 00Z
HI-RES MODELS AND 06Z NAM12 MODEL DEPICT A WEAKENING MCS MOVING
SE INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED CONVECTION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY ASSIST IN ALLOWING THE CONVECTION TO
HOLD TOGETHER...MOVING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE. OTHERWISE THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS BREAKS DOWN WITH THE APPROACH
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  72  93  72  93 /   0   0  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  71  91  71  92 /   0   0  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     93  71  92  70  92 /   0   0  10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            91  69  89  69  89 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  75  94  75  93 /   0   0  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  70  89  70  90 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             96  73  94  73  92 /   0   0  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  72  91  72  91 /   0   0  10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  73  90 /   0   0  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       93  73  92  73  91 /   0   0  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           93  73  92  73  91 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13

000
FXUS64 KFWD 230812
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
312 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IS INCREASING DEW
POINTS THROUGHOUT MOST OF TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK
WARM FRONT IS LOCATED THIS MORNING NEAR THE RED RIVER AND CONVECTION IS
STARTING TO FORM IN SOUTHERN OK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ADVECT THE
STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.

PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS QUITE DIFFICULT DUE
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE WEAK FORCING AND DETERMINING
THE LOCATIONS WHERE STORMS WILL OCCUR. THE WEAK RIDGING OVER TX
IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO CAP OFF
CONVECTION AND MODEL POP SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA RANGE FROM DRY TO
STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL LAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SHOULD MODELS BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION...THE
LOW POPS CURRENTLY FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE RAISED FOR THE AREAS
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE LIKELY.

THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG THE GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTION WILL BREAK OUT NEAR THE DRY LINE IN WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SORT OF MCS MOVING SOUTH AND SPREADING EAST
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
IN THE SOUTHWARD MOVING MCS THAN THE CONVECTION SPREADING
EAST...SO I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
CONVECTION MAY INITIALLY AFFECT NORTHWEST COUNTIES...EXPANDING
OVERNIGHT TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NORTH TX
AREA ON FRIDAY.

THE PROCESS MAY REPEAT ITSELF FRIDAY EVENING...WITH LOW POPS
LINGERING IN THE NORTHERN HALF SATURDAY AND ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
CONVECTION DOES FORM AND EVOLVE INTO AN MCS...AND WHAT DIRECTION
IT MOVES.

WITH SOUTH FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S/90S AND MORNING
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/70S. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON WHERE AND TO WHAT EXTENT CONVECTION OCCURS.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY...EXTENDING SOUTH TO
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND I ADDED LOW POPS TO THE
GRIDS FOR THOSE TWO DAYS. 84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  72  86  71  85 /  10  20  20  10  20
WACO, TX              90  73  88  69  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             85  68  81  69  82 /  40  20  20  10  20
DENTON, TX            87  70  84  70  83 /  10  20  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          88  70  85  70  84 /  10  20  20  10  20
DALLAS, TX            90  73  88  72  87 /  10  20  20  10  20
TERRELL, TX           89  71  87  70  87 /  10  20  20  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         90  71  89  70  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            90  72  87  69  86 /  10  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     91  71  86  70  84 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KBRO 230602 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
102 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW
STRATUS SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. AGRICULTURAL BURNING ACROSS MEXICO MAY PROVIDE
SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES DUE TO HAZE. CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
MODERATE LEVELS AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS MOVES
BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CEILING POSSIBLE
AROUND 3Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...EXPECT CIGS TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS
LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS AND MOVES IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS DUE TO HAZE FROM
AGRICULTURAL BURNING TO OUR SOUTH. CIGS WILL RAISE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY THURSDAY NIGHT/... MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG OR JUST INLAND FROM THE TEXAS COAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SURGING NORTH OVER THIS WEAK BOUNDARY A SURFACE RIDGE
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MAIN FEATURE IS THICK LOW CLOUDINESS AND HIGHER
DEW POINTS. THE CLOUDS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME BREAKING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LACK OF STRONGER WINDS TO MIX THROUGH THE
SURFACE INVERSION. EVEN A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE REPORTED
AROUND BROWNSVILLE EARLIER TODAY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THROUGH THE EVENING FOR ALL AREAS BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONLY A TRACE WITH NO REAL LIFT OF THE MOISTURE
OCCURRING AND THE INVERSION KEEPING A CAP ON THINGS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES FARTHER EAST THURSDAY AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN MIXING. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND HEAT
DEVELOPING. VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER AND NO APPRECIABLE LIFT OF
LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR ANY RAIN ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TO WARM
SLIGHTLY WITH MORE SUNSHINE WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS. BOTH MAV AND
MET ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EACH OTHER WITH THE GOING FORECAST
TAKING A BLEND OF TWO.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...STRONG H5 RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS ON FRIDAY...CAPPING THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT
AND STEERING SYSTEMS WELL TO THE NORTH. DOMINANT SFC RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SE
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. FIRES IN SOUTHERN MEXICO ARE STILL
ONGOING...SO HAZE AND SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
FOR HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...GENERALLY IN THE 90S...WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. MODELS STILL DISAGREEING ON UPPER PATTERN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED RIDGING AS SUMMERTIME
PATTERN TRIES TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION. WENT WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY OF MID 90S TO 100 WEST.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LAGUNA THURSDAY
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST BUT NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED. STEADY STATE SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND COULD LOWER TO ONE MORE FOOT ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MODEST SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 15 KNOTS EACH DAY...KEEPING SEAS
IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  86  76  84 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          77  88  75  86 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            75  89  75  88 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              75  93  76  92 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  94  76  94 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  83  76  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63

000
FXUS64 KCRP 230542 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS BEGINNING TO FILL IN OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM LOW MVFR TO IFR AROUND 800 FT. VSBYS HAVE
IMPROVED FROM EARLIER HAZE RESTRICTIONS BUT EXPECT VSBYS WILL FALL
BACK TO MVFR RANGE OVER THE AREA BY 09Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REACH
LRD BY 09Z ALSO...BUT LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY MID MORNING. MVFR CIGS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH HAZE RESTRICTING VSBYS. VFR CONDS EXPECTED FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO MID EVENING. STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE COASTAL SITES BY 03-04Z
FRIDAY WITH MVFR CIGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  89  76  91  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          75  89  73  89  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            76  97  77  97  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             76  91  75  93  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          77  82  76  84  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75  96  73  97  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        77  91  75  92  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  84  76  84  74  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION

000
FXUS64 KMAF 230541
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1241 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

NOCTURNAL LLJ IS IN FULL GEAR TONIGHT...W/KMAF SHOWING 50KTS OUT
OF THE SSE...ABOUT 10KTS STRONGER THAN MODELS ANTICIPATED 24 HRS
AGO. THIS WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...BUT BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE STRATUS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS DO DEVELOP A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD 16Z-19Z
THURSDAY...W/BASES 6-11KFT AGL. MODELS THEN DEVELOP CONVECTION
OMTNS AROUND 18Z...AND BRING AN IMPRESSIVE MCS OUT OF THE NORTH
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...MAINTAINED BY ANOTHER LLJ INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY CONVECTION
ATTM...PREFERRING TO LOOK AT THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION WHEN IT COMES
IN...AND MAKING THE FINAL CALL FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. IFR/LIFR
CIGS WILL ALSO COME INTO THE PICTURE AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION TODAY...BUT AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CAUSE FLOW TO BACK FROM THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BACKING FLOW WILL
CAUSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SURGE WESTWARD INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE CWA HOWEVER WITH NO SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
ON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEING THE MAIN TRIGGERS. THE ONE
FACTOR THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST FOR WILL BE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONE
SUCH FEATURE MAY PUSH SOUTH TOMORROW EVENING AS CONVECTION FIRES
IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. AS MENTIONED BY
THE MID SHIFT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM ONE
HALF INCH CURRENTLY TO WELL OVER AN INCH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY
MEANING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE
THREAT FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT HOWEVER WILL BE LOW AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES JUST ARE NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH.

THE INCREASE IN PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN
BELOW CLIMO AND MAKE FOR A PLEASANT NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL WINDS
BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY BY SUNDAY SO DECIDED TO END POPS AT
THAT TIME THOUGH THE GENERAL WEST COAST TROUGH/CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE REGIME WILL CONTINUE SO CANNOT RULE OUT RAIN CHANCES INTO
NEXT WEEK. IN FACT SEVERAL MODELS DO SHOW RAIN NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
NOT INTRODUCE POPS THAT FAR OUT GIVEN HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY.

HENNIG

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

000
FXUS64 KAMA 230506 AAD
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1206 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/
FOR KAMA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF TSRA
AT KAMA AFTER 2100Z SO INCLUDED A VCTS FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND THE EXACT LOCATION OF A
STATIONARY FRONT WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS TO DEVELOP STORMS IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. IF A STORM DOES DIRECTLY IMPACT KAMA...LARGE
HAIL...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 KT...AND BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR KGUY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500-2500FT
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AFTER 13Z AND CONTINUING INTERMITTENTLY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR KDHT...NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS KGUY BUT THINK AFTER 02Z SEEMS
LIKELY. TSRA DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF BOTH
TERMINALS.

KNS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

UPDATE...
OUR THOUGHTS REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP FOR THURSDAY
GENERALLY JIVE WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST. BASED ON THE NEWEST MODEL
DATA, WE`RE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES.

TIMING: IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL INITIATE
AFTER 3:30 PM NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
A DALHART TO CLAUDE LINE. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE, POSSIBLY NEAR AMARILLO. AS
THESE STORMS DEVELOP, THEY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR, STORMS
SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND SEVERE WITHIN AN HOUR AND A
HALF AFTER THEY DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME, THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE 4-10 PM.

LOCATION: THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS TO OCCUR SOUTH AND
EAST OF A HEREFORD TO DALHART TO BEAVER LINE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
AN AMARILLO TO CANADIAN LINE. THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO BE
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF AN AMARILLO TO PAMPA TO SHAMROCK LINE.
HOWEVER, AS WE`VE MENTIONED IN OUR DISCUSSIONS, THE TORNADO THREAT
WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
NEWEST NAM AND LATEST TEXAS TECH WRF  ADDITIONALLY, ONE THING WE`LL
BE WATCHING VERY CLOSELY TONIGHT IS IF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
IN OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS OR WESTERN OKLAHOMA. IF AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS, IT COULD SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SCENARIO IS EXTREMELY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT WE`LL BE MONITORING THIS CLOSELY AS ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD ALSO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IF IT
DOESN`T COMPLETELY MIX OUT.

HAZARDS: VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER,
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY (OR POTENTIALLY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY).
THE WINDOW FOR THE HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL LOOKS RELATIVELY SMALL
AT THIS TIME, BUT THE 5-8 PM TIME FRAME IS WHEN WE`LL BE WATCHING
THIS POTENTIAL MOST CLOSELY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT, BUT SUPERCELLS ARE NOT
THE MOST EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. HOWEVER, IF A SLOW MOVING
SUPERCELL MOVES ALONG ANY FRONT/BOUNDARY, THAT POTENTIAL WOULD BE
GREATLY ENHANCED.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

UPDATE...
MAIN CHANGES WERE TO ADD A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT AND ADJUST TEMPS UPWARD
IN MANY LOCATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
IT`S A MILD EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. WITH A 40-45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
10-20 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, SO WE HAVE WARMED LOW TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE.

WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING, MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT, BUT REGIONAL 0000 UTC SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY MEAGER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO
WILL CLIP OUR NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION APPEAR
TO BE SUFFICIENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A BEAVER TO MCLEAN LINE BETWEEN 5 AM
AND 10 AM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE, BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT
TONIGHT. THEREFORE, IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY MAY CONTAIN SOME SMALL
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS, BUT DUE TO THE MEAGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. UPDATED PRODUCTS AND
POINT-N-CLICK FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

AN UPDATED DISCUSSION REGARDING THURSDAY`S SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WILL
BE SENT SHORTLY AFTER DIGESTING THE LATEST MODEL DATA.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KAMA AND KDHT (AS
LONG AS STORMS DON`T IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL). HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGUY 15Z-18Z AND 20Z-00Z.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF TSRA AT KAMA AFTER 2130Z, BUT WE DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON INCLUDING THIS IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE FOR TWO REASONS:
1) THE COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY BE ISOLATED THROUGH END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD.
2) DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS TO DEVELOP STORMS.

HOWEVER, IF A STORM DOES DIRECTLY IMPACT KAMA, LARGE HAIL, WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 55 KT, AND BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE LINED
UP JUST EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BE FOUND LINED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL
START TO BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
ON THURSDAY.

THIS MEANS THAT THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST AND A TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER TO OUR AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AS MOISTURE IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THEN BROUGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE
SURFACE DETAILS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

FIRST...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BACKDOOR INTO THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THIS
BOUNDARY BE WHEN CONVECTION INITIATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS ARE NOT CLEAR ON JUST EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS INTERACT WITH
THE BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT NORTHWARD TO ADD TO THE FUEL. THESE STORMS
WILL ALSO NOT BE MOVING VERY FAST.

FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AREAS NEAR THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON.

BY MEMORIAL DAY...THE DRYLINE MAY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
BY THE AFTERNOON...SO THE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE IN THESE
AREAS.

WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW
ALOFT MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP EDGE THE DRYLINE EAST OF OUR
AREA.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN IN THIS FORECAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

000
FXUS64 KFWD 230501 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1201 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NOCTURNAL STRATUS AND MORNING FOG.

LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON THE GROUND...SOME
LIGHT GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. BUT
AFTER A DAY OF CONSIDERABLE EVAPORATION...IT SHOULD BE FAR LESS
EXTENSIVE THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF STRATUS WILL ALSO
REDUCE THE EXTENT OF COOLING AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS THE EXTENT
OF THE RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

SOME STRATOCU 2-4KFT AGL ARE JUST UPSTREAM OF WACO. EXPECT THIS
LAYER TO LOWER AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE RATHER MEAGER...A LLJ WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE LLJ WILL REACH
25-30KTS BEFORE DAWN...SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW THE BETTER MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THE MAY SUN WILL
EFFECTIVELY MIX OUT THE MVFR DECK BY MID MORNING.

EXTENDED...
ANOTHER MORE EXTENSIVE STRATUS INTRUSION IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING.
INTRODUCING THIS WITH THE 24-30HR PORTION OF THE 06Z DFW TAF. THE
STRATOCU WILL BECOME VFR BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE CEILINGS
MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN THE MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH
DEEPER.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THIS RESULTED IN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
HOURLY GRIDS AS WELL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DEWPOINTS ARE RECOVERING TODAY SO TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER. LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL RETURN
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES
NORTHWARD. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK BY LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY
WHILE THE BOUNDARY STALLS AROUND I-20. OVERALL...THURSDAY WILL BE A
NICE DAY AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR AND LIGHT WINDS.

RIDGING WILL BUILD ALOFT TO THE WEST THEN SLIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING
CONVECTION OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME OF IT MOVING EAST ALONG AN
ELEVATED FRONT AND ACROSS PARTS OF OUR CWA. OUR EVALUATION OF
SHORTWAVE LIFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTION PROFILES
INDICATE THAT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 500MB
(18,000 FEET) WITH DRIER AIR BELOW. AS A RESULT...FEEL THERE COULD
BE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ENTER THE CWA FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. IF THE CONVECTION IS ABLE TO TAP MOISTURE
CLOSER TO 850 MB... THEN A PSEUDO INVERTED-V SOUNDING WOULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.
ERGO...WE ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT RAINFALL BUT WILL CARRY LOW
POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME OF THE PANHANDLE CONVECTION MOVING
INTO THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

HAVE DECIDED TO END THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND KEEP IT DRY THOUGHT THE REST OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE SEASONAL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.      75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  88  71  85  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              65  90  70  88  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             61  84  65  81  63 /  10  10  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            62  87  68  84  67 /  10  10  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          63  87  70  84  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            67  91  73  88  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           64  90  71  86  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         65  91  71  88  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            66  91  70  87  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     63  91  70  86  68 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/58

000
FXUS64 KSJT 230458
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1158 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 10Z ALONG WITH PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITIES. KABI
SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT DID INCLUDE A TWO HOUR TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS AT KSJT THIS FORECAST CYCLE GIVEN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
VFR RETURNS BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS STRATUS SCATTERS OUT.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS THURSDAY
EVENING AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH THE KABI AND
POSSIBLY THE KSJT TERMINALS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE KBBD...KJCT
AND KSOA TERMINALS AFTER 09Z. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW
FOR STRATUS TO AFFECT KABI AND KSJT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THIS POTENTIAL. EXPECT STRATUS TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR AROUND
14Z WITH VFR THEREAFTER. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND QUIETER WEATHER
TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED BY WARMING UP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ALONG WITH
MOISTURE BEING INCREASED OR MAINTAINED AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS
ALREADY BEGUN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES
AND WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT LOWS TO
ONLY BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. EXPECTING
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL EASE INTO THE CAPROCK REGION OF WEST
TEXAS. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONG ALONG THIS FRONT AS A
DRYLINE MIXES EAST TO THE FRONTAL LOCATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALOFT...LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 7.5 C/KM...WITH
LOW LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF NEAR 3000 J/KG. AS A RESULT...WHILE TEXAS
WILL REMAIN UNDER A RIDGE WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOWARD OUR CWA. INITIALLY...DUE TO THE INSTABILITY
THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE QUICK TO
INTENSIFY TO SEVERE STRENGTH WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF OUR AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

20

LONG TERM...
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IS THE INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY...BUT WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST LATE THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
STALL HERE. THESE FACTORS SHOULD AID IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. I INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN HAZARDS.

RAIN CHANCES LOOK MORE PROMISING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. RAIN CHANCE SHOULD SLOWLY COME TO AN END
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH I DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY WHERE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AND THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER. FOR NOW...I KNOCKED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN
SLIGHTLY...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED IF CONFIDENCE IS RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES. BEYOND SATURDAY...EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. MODELS DIVERGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS IS
INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING OUR AREA...WHILE THE
ECMWF INDICATES A RIDGE BUILDING IN. FOR NOW...I HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY.

DANIELS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  92  70  93  70  87 /   0  10  10  30  30
SAN ANGELO  96  71  96  70  89 /   0   5   5  20  30
JUNCTION  93  70  92  70  87 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24

000
FXUS64 KHGX 230457
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1157 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME...EARLY MORNING IFR CEILINGS WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR VISBIES (BR). PROG SOUNDINGS MIX CEILINGS OUT AND
UP BY 16Z...POSSIBLY EVEN SKC (OR FEW/SCT HIGH DECK) BY LATE
AFTERNOON. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED GENERALLY BETWEEN
COLUMBUS AND HOUSTON HAVE DISSIPATED. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. UPDATE FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE OUT.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
WITH LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 90F...THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING UPON MESOSCALE RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES OVER SOUTHWESTERN
HOUSTON...MAY REACH HOBBY`S VICINITY IN NEXT HOUR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE IN KIAH`S AIR SPACE WITHIN LAST HOUR. ACTIVITY WILL
BE QUICKLY WANING ONCE SUN SETS...NO MORE SFC HEATING TO DRIVE
THIS LOCALIZED CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT WIND FIELD WILL SLACKEN...AND
WITHIN THIS VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...IFR DECKS/MVFR BR IS EXPECTED
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS. DECKS
LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING...
FEW TO SKC UNDER AN EARLY EASTERLY/VRB VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY 8-12
KT PM WIND. SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MARCHING INLAND MAY HAVE NEAR-COASTAL
TERMINAL WINDS MORE EASTERLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...NEAR 10 KT
SOUTHERLIES UNDER SKC BY 19-20Z (ONCE BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH
OF HUB). 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES APPEARS
TO BE WASHING OUT THIS AFTN. NOT A LOT (IF ANY) DEVELOPMENT NOTED
SO FAR AND IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE CAP IS HOLDING.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THIS NEXT FCST PACKAGE AS SE TX SEEMS TO
BE SETTLING INTO OUR MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH THE PERS-
ISTENT LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH UP RIDGING ALOFT. THIS
RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BREAKDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES PUSH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILST
THE TRACKS OF THESE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION...THE TAIL END OF THESE SYSTEMS COULD EFFECT THE FAR
NRN PARTS OF OUR CWFA FRI/SAT. THUS NO REAL ARGUMENTS WITH THE LOW
POPS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY
DRY (POPS NOT RH) FCST WITH TEMPS AT (AROUND) SEASONAL NORMS THESE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  91  71  90  70 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  90  72  90  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  81  74  82  73 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31

000
FXUS64 KLUB 230453
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1153 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...
40+ KT SOUTHERLY LLJ EXPANDING ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE UP ENOUGH AT KLBB TO KEEP LLWS AT BAY...BUT
LIGHTER AND BACKED WINDS AT KCDS ARE ENOUGH TO RAISE CONCERNS OF
LLWS THERE. THE LLJ WAS GRADUALLY CARRYING BETTER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND THERE IS SOME RISK OF MVFR CIGS AT KCDS TOWARD
MORNING...BUT CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE
JET TOWARD MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL
NORTHEAST OF KCDS. INSTEAD...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AT/NEAR THE TERMINALS WILL BE AROUND MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. THUS...WE CONTINUE TO INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS
FOR THIS LIKELIHOOD. CONVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IF ONE OF THESE STORMS DIRECTLY
IMPACTS A TERMINAL A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...

.THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FOCUS IN THE SHORT-TERM...

ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE APPROACHING WEST TEXAS...DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER THE PACIFIC NW...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS NEWD FROM THE MS
VLY INTO THE MIDWEST. THE LATTER TROUGH HAS DRIVEN A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS FRONT WILL
BE A CRUCIAL PLAYER IN OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES TOMORROW.

ALSO AT THE SURFACE...AN STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTH TX WAS
BEGINNING TO WASH OUT/LIFT NORTH WITH INCREASING SRLY FLOW AND MOIST
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE. THE WAA REGIME WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LVL JET KICKS IN...DRAGGING MID 50S TO
MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM MID
50S NW TO NEAR 70 SE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGH-DEGREE OF
SPREAD REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF EARLY MORNING ELEVATED
CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE COLD FRONT/WARM
FRONT INTERSECTION IN CENTRAL TO NW OKLAHOMA. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR
US BECAUSE THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE/ACCELERATE THE FRONT TO THE SW...AND HELP DETERMINE WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...THE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT DOES NOT PARTICULARLY HELP OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOCATION OF INITIAL CONVECTION. IN GENERAL THOUGH...WE EXPECT THE
FRONT TO BACKDOOR INTO OUR NE ZONES AROUND MID-DAY...AND PROGRESS
WESTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE FA IN MODEST...ALBEIT
INCREASING...UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIKELY BE ENHANCED ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LVL
WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT. ON THE CAPROCK...SHALLOW
MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...AND A DRYLINE IS
LIKELY TO SET UP IN VICINITY OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WHILE CAPPING
MAY INITIALLY BE A CONCERN EAST OF THE FRONT AND DRYLINE...FCST
SOUNDINGS ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARIES SHOULD CINH GOING
TO ZERO BY AROUND 21 UTC. THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION WILL BE THE
PREFERRED AREA FOR CI AND AS OF THIS AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS BRISCOE...FLOYD COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS SWISHER/HALE COUNTIES. FORECAST MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000 TO 3000 J/KG IN THIS AREA SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID CELL
INTENSIFICATION. SHEAR SHOULD BE AUGMENTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
LOOK LIKE A STRONG BET TO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...FCST 0-1 KM EHI VALUES > 2 NEAR THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AS WELL. LCL/S WILL INITIALLY BE
SOMEWHAT HIGH BUT WILL LIKELY DECREASE AROUND 0 UTC. HOWEVER...IF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST THEN STORMS WILL ONLY
HAVE A SMALL RESIDENCE TIME ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL KEEP THE
WINDOW OF TORNADIC THREAT FAIRLY SHORT.

FORECAST PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...THEN PERHAPS
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS CONVECTION GROWS UPSCALE IN THE EVENING AS
DISCUSSED BELOW.

MEANWHILE...BACK TO THE WEST...MORE ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH NEAR THE TX-NM STATE LINE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE SOME
STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

LONG TERM...
A PROTRACTED ACTIVE WX PATTERN LIES AHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY MUCH OF THE FINAL WEEK OF
MAY AS SEASONABLY RICH GULF MOISTURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
MOST OF WEST TEXAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD ENSURE MINIMAL EASTERLY DRYLINE MIXING
EACH AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL OPEN THE WINDOW FOR PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE ENTIRE CWA...SOMETHING WE HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE TO SAY FOR A
LONG TIME! BECAUSE OF SUSTAINED S-SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS...OPTED TO
RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND NARROW THE DIURNAL
TEMP RANGE IN ANTICIPATION OF MILDER NIGHTS AND NOT-AS-HOT
AFTERNOONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN TSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE CWA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES SOUTHWEST /LIKELY
AIDED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS/ AND RECEIVES SOME CONTRIBUTION OF
LIFT FROM AN INTENSIFYING SELY LLJ. COUPLING OF THIS LLJ WITH A
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK SHOULD ONLY BOLSTER DEEP ASCENT SUPPORTIVE
OF NUMEROUS TSTORMS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF
AN MCS IF MODELS ARE CORRECT. PROVIDED THIS IS CORRECT...THEN THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND TO WANE AS WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY ROBUST OR DRY ENOUGH FOR AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE WIND
EVENT. HOWEVER...CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE ON THE RISE GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN
UNSEASONABLY RICH PWATS AOA 1.5 INCHES. ADD TO THIS FAVORABLE CORFIDI
VECTORS SUPPORTIVE OF STORM PROPAGATION/REDEVELOPMENT INTO A LOW-
LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND THE STAGE COULD BE SET FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE
RAIN TOTALS IN SOME LOCALES OFF THE CAPROCK. RECENT SURVEY BY OUR
REGIONAL HYDROLOGIST SHOWED MINIMAL COVERAGE OF FUELS IN SOME
AREAS FAVORED TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...SO THIS
WOULD ONLY AMPLIFY RUNOFF AND THE THREAT FOR FLOODING. ADDITIONAL
ISO-SCT STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS PLAUSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND
THIS MCS GIVEN A PERSISTENT SELY LLJ DIRECTED OVER THE CWA.

HISTORY WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THESE NOCTURNAL STORMS DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND NOT LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING
AS SHOWN BY THE GFS OR ECMWF CAMPS. IF THIS IS CORRECT...THEN
ROUND TWO OF TSTRMS SHOULD BE IN STORE FRI AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER EAST EXPOSING THE SOUTH PLAINS TO A MORE
UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW. IN A NUTSHELL...THIS FLOW REGIME CAMPS OUT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE SRN
ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE...SO
HAVE ENDED MENTION OF ISOLATED DRYLINE TSTORMS BEGINNING
TUESDAY...THOUGH THIS MAY INEVITABLY BE EXTENDED IN FURTHER IN
TIME IN LATER FORECASTS IF SUFFICIENT MODEL CONTINUITY EXISTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  89  59  82  60 /  10  20  30  40  20
TULIA         61  89  62  83  62 /  10  40  50  40  20
PLAINVIEW     62  90  64  84  63 /  10  30  50  40  20
LEVELLAND     64  92  64  84  64 /   0  20  40  40  20
LUBBOCK       66  93  66  86  65 /   0  20  50  40  30
DENVER CITY   63  92  65  85  64 /   0  20  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    66  93  65  86  65 /   0  20  40  40  30
CHILDRESS     62  88  65  85  66 /  10  60  60  30  20
SPUR          67  92  67  87  66 /  10  30  60  40  30
ASPERMONT     71  95  69  87  67 /  10  20  60  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23

000
FXUS64 KEWX 230446
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1146 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...
POCKETS OF STRATUS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. THE STRATUS WILL FILL-IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH CIG BASES ALSO LOWERING. ANTICIPATE BKN-OVC CIGS BELOW
2KFT AT I-35 TAF SITES BY 07-08Z AND SPREADING WEST TO KDRT BY
11-12Z. CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AT I-35 TAF SITES IN THE NEAR-
DAYBREAK HOURS. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KAUS AROUND
SUNRISE. CIGS WILL LIFT/BREAK OUT TO VFR DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...VSBYS MAY OCCASIONALLY BE
REDUCED TO 5SM IN HAZE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SMOKE FROM THE
FIRES ACROSS THE YUCATAN ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL
BE SERLY 8 TO 12 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 12 TO 18 KTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AND MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. S/W ENERGY FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST
OF THE WESTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY COULD BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE MID TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK
FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...ANOTHER 500 HPA TROF IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE MID TO
LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. A STEADY INFLUX OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL ENSURE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. CIGS COULD POTENTIALLY LOWER TO BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE BUT HAVE KEPT MVFR FOR NOW AND WILL RE-ASSESS WITH
THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY SHALLOW FOG
IN THE NEAR-DAYBREAK HOURS AT KAUS...AND COULD ALSO SEE REDUCTIONS
IN VSBYS DUE TO HAZE AT KSSF/KSAT AS SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA DRIFTS INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. CIGS WILL LIFT/BREAK
OUT TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SE-SLY
SFC WINDS AOB 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 17 KTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROGRESSING AS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED WITH TROUGH MOVING TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS NM. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING DOMINANT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL BRING GULF
MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION QUICKLY. THIS WILL BE A DRY PATTERN
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
RIDGE FRIDAY WHICH WILL MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO CHANCES FOR RAIN UNTIL THE
LAST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN TEXAS BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  95  72  94  72 /   0   0  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  94  71  93  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  95  70  94  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            68  93  69  91  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  99  74  96  76 /   0   0  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  92  70  91  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  97  72  96  73 /   0   0  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  93  71  92  72 /   0   0  10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  92  74  93  74 /   0   0  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  95  73  94  73 /   0   0  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           72  94  72  94  73 /   0   0  -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08

000
FXUS64 KAMA 230318 AAD
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1018 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
OUR THOUGHTS REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP FOR THURSDAY
GENERALLY JIVE WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST. BASED ON THE NEWEST MODEL
DATA, WE`RE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES.

TIMING: IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL INITIATE
AFTER 3:30 PM NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
A DALHART TO CLAUDE LINE. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE, POSSIBLY NEAR AMARILLO. AS
THESE STORMS DEVELOP, THEY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR, STORMS
SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND SEVERE WITHIN AN HOUR AND A
HALF AFTER THEY DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME, THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE 4-10 PM.

LOCATION: THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS TO OCCUR SOUTH AND
EAST OF A HEREFORD TO DALHART TO BEAVER LINE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
AN AMARILLO TO CANADIAN LINE. THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO BE
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF AN AMARILLO TO PAMPA TO SHAMROCK LINE.
HOWEVER, AS WE`VE MENTIONED IN OUR DISCUSSIONS, THE TORNADO THREAT
WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
NEWEST NAM AND LATEST TEXAS TECH WRF  ADDITIONALLY, ONE THING WE`LL
BE WATCHING VERY CLOSELY TONIGHT IS IF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
IN OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS OR WESTERN OKLAHOMA. IF AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS, IT COULD SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SCENARIO IS EXTREMELY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT WE`LL BE MONITORING THIS CLOSELY AS ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD ALSO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IF IT
DOESN`T COMPLETELY MIX OUT.

HAZARDS: VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER,
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY (OR POTENTIALLY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY).
THE WINDOW FOR THE HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL LOOKS RELATIVELY SMALL
AT THIS TIME, BUT THE 5-8 PM TIME FRAME IS WHEN WE`LL BE WATCHING
THIS POTENTIAL MOST CLOSELY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT, BUT SUPERCELLS ARE NOT
THE MOST EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. HOWEVER, IF A SLOW MOVING
SUPERCELL MOVES ALONG ANY FRONT/BOUNDARY, THAT POTENTIAL WOULD BE
GREATLY ENHANCED.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

UPDATE...
MAIN CHANGES WERE TO ADD A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT AND ADJUST TEMPS UPWARD
IN MANY LOCATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
IT`S A MILD EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. WITH A 40-45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
10-20 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, SO WE HAVE WARMED LOW TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE.

WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING, MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT, BUT REGIONAL 0000 UTC SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY MEAGER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO
WILL CLIP OUR NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION APPEAR
TO BE SUFFICIENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A BEAVER TO MCLEAN LINE BETWEEN 5 AM
AND 10 AM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE, BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT
TONIGHT. THEREFORE, IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY MAY CONTAIN SOME SMALL
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS, BUT DUE TO THE MEAGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. UPDATED PRODUCTS AND
POINT-N-CLICK FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

AN UPDATED DISCUSSION REGARDING THURSDAY`S SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WILL
BE SENT SHORTLY AFTER DIGESTING THE LATEST MODEL DATA.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KAMA AND KDHT (AS
LONG AS STORMS DON`T IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL). HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGUY 15Z-18Z AND 20Z-00Z.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF TSRA AT KAMA AFTER 2130Z, BUT WE DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON INCLUDING THIS IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE FOR TWO REASONS:
1) THE COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY BE ISOLATED THROUGH END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD.
2) DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS TO DEVELOP STORMS.

HOWEVER, IF A STORM DOES DIRECTLY IMPACT KAMA, LARGE HAIL, WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 55 KT, AND BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE LINED
UP JUST EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BE FOUND LINED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL
START TO BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
ON THURSDAY.

THIS MEANS THAT THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST AND A TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER TO OUR AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AS MOISTURE IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THEN BROUGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE
SURFACE DETAILS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

FIRST...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BACKDOOR INTO THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THIS
BOUNDARY BE WHEN CONVECTION INITIATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS ARE NOT CLEAR ON JUST EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS INTERACT WITH
THE BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT NORTHWARD TO ADD TO THE FUEL. THESE STORMS
WILL ALSO NOT BE MOVING VERY FAST.

FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AREAS NEAR THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON.

BY MEMORIAL DAY...THE DRYLINE MAY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
BY THE AFTERNOON...SO THE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE IN THESE
AREAS.

WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW
ALOFT MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP EDGE THE DRYLINE EAST OF OUR
AREA.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN IN THIS FORECAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

KNS/JJ

000
FXUS64 KHGX 230259
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
959 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED GENERALLY BETWEEN
COLUMBUS AND HOUSTON HAVE DISSIPATED. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. UPDATE FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE OUT.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
WITH LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 90F...THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING UPON MESOSCALE RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES OVER SOUTHWESTERN
HOUSTON...MAY REACH HOBBY`S VICINITY IN NEXT HOUR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE IN KIAH`S AIR SPACE WITHIN LAST HOUR. ACTIVITY WILL
BE QUICKLY WANING ONCE SUN SETS...NO MORE SFC HEATING TO DRIVE
THIS LOCALIZED CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT WIND FIELD WILL SLACKEN...AND
WITHIN THIS VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...IFR DECKS/MVFR BR IS EXPECTED
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS. DECKS
LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING...
FEW TO SKC UNDER AN EARLY EASTERLY/VRB VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY 8-12
KT PM WIND. SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MARCHING INLAND MAY HAVE NEAR-COASTAL
TERMINAL WINDS MORE EASTERLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...NEAR 10 KT
SOUTHERLIES UNDER SKC BY 19-20Z (ONCE BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH
OF HUB). 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES APPEARS
TO BE WASHING OUT THIS AFTN. NOT A LOT (IF ANY) DEVELOPMENT NOTED
SO FAR AND IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE CAP IS HOLDING.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THIS NEXT FCST PACKAGE AS SE TX SEEMS TO
BE SETTLING INTO OUR MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH THE PERS-
ISTENT LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH UP RIDGING ALOFT. THIS
RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BREAKDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES PUSH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILST
THE TRACKS OF THESE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION...THE TAIL END OF THESE SYSTEMS COULD EFFECT THE FAR
NRN PARTS OF OUR CWFA FRI/SAT. THUS NO REAL ARGUMENTS WITH THE LOW
POPS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY
DRY (POPS NOT RH) FCST WITH TEMPS AT (AROUND) SEASONAL NORMS THESE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  91  71  90  70 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  90  72  90  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  81  74  82  73 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31

000
FXUS64 KFWD 230251 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
951 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THIS RESULTED IN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
HOURLY GRIDS AS WELL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NOCTURNAL STRATUS AND MORNING FOG.

LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON THE GROUND...SOME
LIGHT GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. BUT
AFTER A DAY OF CONSIDERABLE EVAPORATION...IT SHOULD BE FAR LESS
EXTENSIVE THAN THIS (WEDNESDAY) MORNING.

THE CU FIELD MADE ITS WAY INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FWD CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
RATHER MEAGER...A LLJ WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE LLJ WILL REACH
25-30KTS LATE TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW THE BETTER MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THE MAY SUN WILL
EFFECTIVELY MIX OUT THE MVFR DECK BY MID MORNING.

EXTENDED...
ANOTHER MORE EXTENSIVE STRATUS INTRUSION IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING.
WITH THE 06Z PACKAGE...THIS WILL BE INTRODUCED INTO THE 24-30HR
PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

25


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DEWPOINTS ARE RECOVERING TODAY SO TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER. LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL RETURN
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES
NORTHWARD. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK BY LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY
WHILE THE BOUNDARY STALLS AROUND I-20. OVERALL...THURSDAY WILL BE A
NICE DAY AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR AND LIGHT WINDS.

RIDGING WILL BUILD ALOFT TO THE WEST THEN SLIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING
CONVECTION OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME OF IT MOVING EAST ALONG AN
ELEVATED FRONT AND ACROSS PARTS OF OUR CWA. OUR EVALUATION OF
SHORTWAVE LIFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTION PROFILES
INDICATE THAT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 500MB
(18,000 FEET) WITH DRIER AIR BELOW. AS A RESULT...FEEL THERE COULD
BE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ENTER THE CWA FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. IF THE CONVECTION IS ABLE TO TAP MOISTURE
CLOSER TO 850 MB... THEN A PSEUDO INVERTED-V SOUNDING WOULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.
ERGO...WE ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT RAINFALL BUT WILL CARRY LOW
POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME OF THE PANHANDLE CONVECTION MOVING
INTO THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

HAVE DECIDED TO END THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND KEEP IT DRY THOUGHT THE REST OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE SEASONAL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.      75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  88  71  85  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              65  90  70  88  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             61  84  65  81  63 /  10  10  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            62  87  68  84  67 /  10  10  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          63  87  70  84  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            67  91  73  88  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           64  90  71  86  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         65  91  71  88  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            66  91  70  87  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     63  91  70  86  68 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/58

000
FXUS64 KAMA 230227 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
927 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
MAIN CHANGES WERE TO ADD A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT AND ADJUST TEMPS UPWARD
IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IT`S A MILD EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. WITH A 40-45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
10-20 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, SO WE HAVE WARMED LOW TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE.

WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING, MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT, BUT REGIONAL 0000 UTC SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY MEAGER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO
WILL CLIP OUR NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION APPEAR
TO BE SUFFICIENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A BEAVER TO MCLEAN LINE BETWEEN 5 AM
AND 10 AM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE, BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT
TONIGHT. THEREFORE, IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY MAY CONTAIN SOME SMALL
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS, BUT DUE TO THE MEAGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. UPDATED PRODUCTS AND
POINT-N-CLICK FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

AN UPDATED DISCUSSION REGARDING THURSDAY`S SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WILL
BE SENT SHORTLY AFTER DIGESTING THE LATEST MODEL DATA.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KAMA AND KDHT (AS
LONG AS STORMS DON`T IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL). HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGUY 15Z-18Z AND 20Z-00Z.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF TSRA AT KAMA AFTER 2130Z, BUT WE DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON INCLUDING THIS IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE FOR TWO REASONS:
1) THE COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY BE ISOLATED THROUGH END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD.
2) DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS TO DEVELOP STORMS.

HOWEVER, IF A STORM DOES DIRECTLY IMPACT KAMA, LARGE HAIL, WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 55 KT, AND BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE LINED
UP JUST EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BE FOUND LINED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL
START TO BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
ON THURSDAY.

THIS MEANS THAT THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST AND A TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER TO OUR AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AS MOISTURE IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THEN BROUGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE
SURFACE DETAILS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

FIRST...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BACKDOOR INTO THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THIS
BOUNDARY BE WHEN CONVECTION INITIATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS ARE NOT CLEAR ON JUST EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS INTERACT WITH
THE BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT NORTHWARD TO ADD TO THE FUEL. THESE STORMS
WILL ALSO NOT BE MOVING VERY FAST.

FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AREAS NEAR THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON.

BY MEMORIAL DAY...THE DRYLINE MAY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
BY THE AFTERNOON...SO THE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE IN THESE
AREAS.

WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW
ALOFT MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP EDGE THE DRYLINE EAST OF OUR
AREA.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN IN THIS FORECAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

KNS/JJ

000
FXUS64 KEWX 230203
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
903 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AND MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. S/W ENERGY FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST
OF THE WESTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY COULD BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE MID TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK
FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...ANOTHER 500 HPA TROF IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE MID TO
LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. A STEADY INFLUX OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL ENSURE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. CIGS COULD POTENTIALLY LOWER TO BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE BUT HAVE KEPT MVFR FOR NOW AND WILL RE-ASSESS WITH
THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY SHALLOW FOG
IN THE NEAR-DAYBREAK HOURS AT KAUS...AND COULD ALSO SEE REDUCTIONS
IN VSBYS DUE TO HAZE AT KSSF/KSAT AS SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA DRIFTS INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. CIGS WILL LIFT/BREAK
OUT TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SE-SLY
SFC WINDS AOB 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 17 KTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROGRESSING AS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED WITH TROUGH MOVING TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS NM. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING DOMINANT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL BRING GULF
MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION QUICKLY. THIS WILL BE A DRY PATTERN
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
RIDGE FRIDAY WHICH WILL MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO CHANCES FOR RAIN UNTIL THE
LAST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN TEXAS BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  70  95  72  94 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  90  69  94  71  93 /   0   0   0  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     91  70  95  70  94 /   0   0   0  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            88  68  93  69  91 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           96  75  99  74  96 /   0   0   0  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  69  92  70  91 /   0   0   0  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             93  71  97  72  96 /   0   0   0  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  70  93  71  92 /   0   0   0  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  73  92  74  93 /  -    0   0  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  72  95  73  94 /   0   0   0  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  72  94  72  94 /   0   0   0  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25/24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08/05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

000
FXUS64 KFWD 230008 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
708 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NOCTURNAL STRATUS AND MORNING FOG.

LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON THE GROUND...SOME
LIGHT GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. BUT
AFTER A DAY OF CONSIDERABLE EVAPORATION...IT SHOULD BE FAR LESS
EXTENSIVE THAN THIS (WEDNESDAY) MORNING.

THE CU FIELD MADE ITS WAY INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FWD CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
RATHER MEAGER...A LLJ WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE LLJ WILL REACH
25-30KTS LATE TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW THE BETTER MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THE MAY SUN WILL
EFFECTIVELY MIX OUT THE MVFR DECK BY MID MORNING.

EXTENDED...
ANOTHER MORE EXTENSIVE STRATUS INTRUSION IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING.
WITH THE 06Z PACKAGE...THIS WILL BE INTRODUCED INTO THE 24-30HR
PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

25

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DEWPOINTS ARE RECOVERING TODAY SO TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER. LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL RETURN
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES
NORTHWARD. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK BY LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY
WHILE THE BOUNDARY STALLS AROUND I-20. OVERALL...THURSDAY WILL BE A
NICE DAY AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR AND LIGHT WINDS.

RIDGING WILL BUILD ALOFT TO THE WEST THEN SLIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING
CONVECTION OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME OF IT MOVING EAST ALONG AN
ELEVATED FRONT AND ACROSS PARTS OF OUR CWA. OUR EVALUATION OF
SHORTWAVE LIFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTION PROFILES
INDICATE THAT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 500MB
(18,000 FEET) WITH DRIER AIR BELOW. AS A RESULT...FEEL THERE COULD
BE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ENTER THE CWA FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. IF THE CONVECTION IS ABLE TO TAP MOISTURE
CLOSER TO 850 MB... THEN A PSEUDO INVERTED-V SOUNDING WOULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.
ERGO...WE ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT RAINFALL BUT WILL CARRY LOW
POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME OF THE PANHANDLE CONVECTION MOVING
INTO THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

HAVE DECIDED TO END THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND KEEP IT DRY THOUGHT THE REST OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE SEASONAL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.      75

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  88  71  85  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              67  90  70  88  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             61  84  65  81  63 /  10  10  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            62  87  68  84  67 /  10  10  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          63  87  70  84  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            67  91  73  88  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           65  90  71  86  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         67  91  71  88  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            68  91  70  87  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  91  70  86  68 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/58

000
FXUS64 KHGX 230006
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
706 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 90F...THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING UPON MESOSCALE RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES OVER SOUTHWESTERN
HOUSTON...MAY REACH HOBBY`S VICINITY IN NEXT HOUR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE IN KIAH`S AIR SPACE WITHIN LAST HOUR. ACTIVITY WILL
BE QUICKLY WANING ONCE SUN SETS...NO MORE SFC HEATING TO DRIVE
THIS LOCALIZED CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT WIND FIELD WILL SLACKEN...AND
WITHIN THIS VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...IFR DECKS/MVFR BR IS EXPECTED
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS. DECKS
LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING...
FEW TO SKC UNDER AN EARLY EASTERLY/VRB VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY 8-12
KT PM WIND. SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MARCHING INLAND MAY HAVE NEAR-COASTAL
TERMINAL WINDS MORE EASTERLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...NEAR 10 KT
SOUTHERLIES UNDER SKC BY 19-20Z (ONCE BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH
OF HUB). 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES APPEARS
TO BE WASHING OUT THIS AFTN. NOT A LOT (IF ANY) DEVELOPMENT NOTED
SO FAR AND IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE CAP IS HOLDING.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THIS NEXT FCST PACKAGE AS SE TX SEEMS TO
BE SETTLING INTO OUR MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH THE PERS-
ISTENT LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH UP RIDGING ALOFT. THIS
RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BREAKDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES PUSH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILST
THE TRACKS OF THESE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION...THE TAIL END OF THESE SYSTEMS COULD EFFECT THE FAR
NRN PARTS OF OUR CWFA FRI/SAT. THUS NO REAL ARGUMENTS WITH THE LOW
POPS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY
DRY (POPS NOT RH) FCST WITH TEMPS AT (AROUND) SEASONAL NORMS THESE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  91  71  90  70 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  90  72  90  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  81  74  82  73 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31

000
FXUS64 KBRO 230005
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
705 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT CIGS TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS
LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS AND MOVES IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS DUE TO HAZE FROM
AGRICULTURAL BURNING TO OUR SOUTH. CIGS WILL RAISE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY THURSDAY NIGHT/... MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG OR JUST INLAND FROM THE TEXAS COAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SURGING NORTH OVER THIS WEAK BOUNDARY A SURFACE RIDGE
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MAIN FEATURE IS THICK LOW CLOUDINESS AND HIGHER
DEW POINTS. THE CLOUDS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME BREAKING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LACK OF STRONGER WINDS TO MIX THROUGH THE
SURFACE INVERSION. EVEN A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE REPORTED
AROUND BROWNSVILLE EARLIER TODAY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THROUGH THE EVENING FOR ALL AREAS BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONLY A TRACE WITH NO REAL LIFT OF THE MOISTURE
OCCURRING AND THE INVERSION KEEPING A CAP ON THINGS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES FARTHER EAST THURSDAY AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN MIXING. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND HEAT
DEVELOPING. VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER AND NO APPRECIABLE LIFT OF
LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR ANY RAIN ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TO WARM
SLIGHTLY WITH MORE SUNSHINE WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS. BOTH MAV AND
MET ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EACH OTHER WITH THE GOING FORECAST
TAKING A BLEND OF TWO.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...STRONG H5 RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS ON FRIDAY...CAPPING THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT
AND STEERING SYSTEMS WELL TO THE NORTH. DOMINANT SFC RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SE
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. FIRES IN SOUTHERN MEXICO ARE STILL
ONGOING...SO HAZE AND SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
FOR HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...GENERALLY IN THE 90S...WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. MODELS STILL DISAGREEING ON UPPER PATTERN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED RIDGING AS SUMMERTIME
PATTERN TRIES TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION. WENT WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY OF MID 90S TO 100 WEST.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LAGUNA THURSDAY
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST BUT NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED. STEADY STATE SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND COULD LOWER TO ONE MORE FOOT ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MODEST SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 15 KNOTS EACH DAY...KEEPING SEAS
IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/61

000
FXUS64 KLUB 230001
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
701 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...
A 45+ KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE TERMINALS.
EXPECT THE WINDS TO STAY UP ENOUGH AT KLBB TO KEEP LLWS OUT OF THE
TAF...BUT SFC WINDS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF MORE SUBSTANTIAL LATE
TONIGHT AT KCDS AND FOR THIS REASON HAVE INSERTED LLWS THERE. THIS
LLJ WILL CARRY IMPROVED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND THERE IS
A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT KCDS THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO MENTION EXPLICITLY IN THE TAF. INSTEAD...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HENCE...HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS AT BOTH TERMINALS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS
RESULTING IN MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
DIRECT THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...

..THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FOCUS IN THE SHORT-TERM...

ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE APPROACHING WEST TEXAS...DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER THE PACIFIC NW...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS NEWD FROM THE MS
VLY INTO THE MIDWEST. THE LATTER TROUGH HAS DRIVEN A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS FRONT WILL
BE A CRUCIAL PLAYER IN OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES TOMORROW.

ALSO AT THE SURFACE...AN STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTH TX WAS
BEGINNING TO WASH OUT/LIFT NORTH WITH INCREASING SRLY FLOW AND MOIST
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE. THE WAA REGIME WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LVL JET KICKS IN...DRAGGING MID 50S TO
MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM MID
50S NW TO NEAR 70 SE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGH-DEGREE OF
SPREAD REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF EARLY MORNING ELEVATED
CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE COLD FRONT/WARM
FRONT INTERSECTION IN CENTRAL TO NW OKLAHOMA. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR
US BECAUSE THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE/ACCELERATE THE FRONT TO THE SW...AND HELP DETERMINE WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...THE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT DOES NOT PARTICULARLY HELP OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOCATION OF INITIAL CONVECTION. IN GENERAL THOUGH...WE EXPECT THE
FRONT TO BACKDOOR INTO OUR NE ZONES AROUND MID-DAY...AND PROGRESS
WESTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE FA IN MODEST...ALBEIT
INCREASING...UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIKELY BE ENHANCED ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LVL
WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT. ON THE CAPROCK...SHALLOW
MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...AND A DRYLINE IS
LIKELY TO SET UP IN VICINITY OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WHILE CAPPING
MAY INITIALLY BE A CONCERN EAST OF THE FRONT AND DRYLINE...FCST
SOUNDINGS ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARIES SHOULD CINH GOING
TO ZERO BY AROUND 21 UTC. THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION WILL BE THE
PREFERRED AREA FOR CI AND AS OF THIS AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS BRISCOE...FLOYD COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS SWISHER/HALE COUNTIES. FORECAST MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000 TO 3000 J/KG IN THIS AREA SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID CELL
INTENSIFICATION. SHEAR SHOULD BE AUGMENTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
LOOK LIKE A STRONG BET TO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...FCST 0-1 KM EHI VALUES > 2 NEAR THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AS WELL. LCL/S WILL INITIALLY BE
SOMEWHAT HIGH BUT WILL LIKELY DECREASE AROUND 0 UTC. HOWEVER...IF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST THEN STORMS WILL ONLY
HAVE A SMALL RESIDENCE TIME ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL KEEP THE
WINDOW OF TORNADIC THREAT FAIRLY SHORT.

FORECAST PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...THEN PERHAPS
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS CONVECTION GROWS UPSCALE IN THE EVENING AS
DISCUSSED BELOW.

MEANWHILE...BACK TO THE WEST...MORE ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH NEAR THE TX-NM STATE LINE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE SOME
STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

LONG TERM...
A PROTRACTED ACTIVE WX PATTERN LIES AHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY MUCH OF THE FINAL WEEK OF
MAY AS SEASONABLY RICH GULF MOISTURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
MOST OF WEST TEXAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD ENSURE MINIMAL EASTERLY DRYLINE MIXING
EACH AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL OPEN THE WINDOW FOR PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE ENTIRE CWA...SOMETHING WE HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE TO SAY FOR A
LONG TIME! BECAUSE OF SUSTAINED S-SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS...OPTED TO
RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND NARROW THE DIURNAL
TEMP RANGE IN ANTICIPATION OF MILDER NIGHTS AND NOT-AS-HOT
AFTERNOONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN TSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE CWA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES SOUTHWEST /LIKELY
AIDED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS/ AND RECEIVES SOME CONTRIBUTION OF
LIFT FROM AN INTENSIFYING SELY LLJ. COUPLING OF THIS LLJ WITH A
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK SHOULD ONLY BOLSTER DEEP ASCENT SUPPORTIVE
OF NUMEROUS TSTORMS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF
AN MCS IF MODELS ARE CORRECT. PROVIDED THIS IS CORRECT...THEN THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND TO WANE AS WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY ROBUST OR DRY ENOUGH FOR AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE WIND
EVENT. HOWEVER...CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE ON THE RISE GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN
UNSEASONABLY RICH PWATS AOA 1.5 INCHES. ADD TO THIS FAVORABLE CORFIDI
VECTORS SUPPORTIVE OF STORM PROPAGATION/REDEVELOPMENT INTO A LOW-
LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND THE STAGE COULD BE SET FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE
RAIN TOTALS IN SOME LOCALES OFF THE CAPROCK. RECENT SURVEY BY OUR
REGIONAL HYDROLOGIST SHOWED MINIMAL COVERAGE OF FUELS IN SOME
AREAS FAVORED TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...SO THIS
WOULD ONLY AMPLIFY RUNOFF AND THE THREAT FOR FLOODING. ADDITIONAL
ISO-SCT STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS PLAUSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND
THIS MCS GIVEN A PERSISTENT SELY LLJ DIRECTED OVER THE CWA.

HISTORY WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THESE NOCTURNAL STORMS DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND NOT LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING
AS SHOWN BY THE GFS OR ECMWF CAMPS. IF THIS IS CORRECT...THEN
ROUND TWO OF TSTRMS SHOULD BE IN STORE FRI AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER EAST EXPOSING THE SOUTH PLAINS TO A MORE
UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW. IN A NUTSHELL...THIS FLOW REGIME CAMPS OUT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE SRN
ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE...SO
HAVE ENDED MENTION OF ISOLATED DRYLINE TSTORMS BEGINNING
TUESDAY...THOUGH THIS MAY INEVITABLY BE EXTENDED IN FURTHER IN
TIME IN LATER FORECASTS IF SUFFICIENT MODEL CONTINUITY EXISTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  89  59  82  60 /  10  20  30  40  20
TULIA         61  89  62  83  62 /  10  40  50  40  20
PLAINVIEW     62  90  64  84  63 /  10  30  50  40  20
LEVELLAND     64  92  64  84  64 /   0  20  40  40  20
LUBBOCK       66  93  66  86  65 /   0  20  50  40  30
DENVER CITY   63  92  65  85  64 /   0  20  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    66  93  65  86  65 /   0  20  40  40  30
CHILDRESS     62  88  65  85  66 /  10  60  60  30  20
SPUR          67  92  67  87  66 /  10  30  60  40  30
ASPERMONT     71  95  69  87  67 /  10  20  60  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23

000
FXUS64 KMAF 222342
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
642 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES. LOW
LEVEL MSTR WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT ALSO BUT HAVEN/T SEEN ANY INDICATIONS
OF LOW CLOUDS. SATELLITE DOES SHOW HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE
W AND BKN200-250 WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
INCREASE AFTER 18Z THUR. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED LEAVE PROB30 GROUPS OUT
BUT THEY WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO APPEAR IN TAFS IN THE 06Z AND 12Z
ISSUANCES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION TODAY...BUT AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CAUSE FLOW TO BACK FROM THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BACKING FLOW WILL
CAUSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SURGE WESTWARD INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE CWA HOWEVER WITH NO SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
ON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEING THE MAIN TRIGGERS. THE ONE
FACTOR THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST FOR WILL BE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONE
SUCH FEATURE MAY PUSH SOUTH TOMORROW EVENING AS CONVECTION FIRES
IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. AS MENTIONED BY
THE MID SHIFT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM ONE
HALF INCH CURRENTLY TO WELL OVER AN INCH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY
MEANING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE
THREAT FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT HOWEVER WILL BE LOW AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES JUST ARE NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH.

THE INCREASE IN PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN
BELOW CLIMO AND MAKE FOR A PLEASANT NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL WINDS
BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY BY SUNDAY SO DECIDED TO END POPS AT
THAT TIME THOUGH THE GENERAL WEST COAST TROUGH/CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE REGIME WILL CONTINUE SO CANNOT RULE OUT RAIN CHANCES INTO
NEXT WEEK. IN FACT SEVERAL MODELS DO SHOW RAIN NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
NOT INTRODUCE POPS THAT FAR OUT GIVEN HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY.

HENNIG

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KEWX 222339
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
639 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. A STEADY INFLUX OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL ENSURE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. CIGS COULD POTENTIALLY LOWER TO BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE BUT HAVE KEPT MVFR FOR NOW AND WILL RE-ASSESS WITH
THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY SHALLOW FOG
IN THE NEAR-DAYBREAK HOURS AT KAUS...AND COULD ALSO SEE REDUCTIONS
IN VSBYS DUE TO HAZE AT KSSF/KSAT AS SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA DRIFTS INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. CIGS WILL LIFT/BREAK
OUT TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SE-SLY
SFC WINDS AOB 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 17 KTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROGRESSING AS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED WITH TROUGH MOVING TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS NM. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING DOMINANT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL BRING GULF
MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION QUICKLY. THIS WILL BE A DRY PATTERN
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
RIDGE FRIDAY WHICH WILL MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO CHANCES FOR RAIN UNTIL THE
LAST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN TEXAS BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  95  71  94  72 /   0   0  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  93  71  93  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     69  95  70  94  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            68  93  69  91  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  99  74  96  76 /   0   0  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  92  70  91  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  97  72  96  73 /   0   0  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  92  71  91  72 /   0   0  10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  92  74  93  74 /   0   0  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  95  72  94  73 /   0   0  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  94  72  94  73 /   0   0  -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

000
FXUS64 KAMA 222336 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KAMA AND KDHT (AS
LONG AS STORMS DON`T IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL). HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGUY 15Z-18Z AND 20Z-00Z.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF TSRA AT KAMA AFTER 2130Z, BUT WE DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON INCLUDING THIS IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE FOR TWO REASONS:
1) THE COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY BE ISOLATED THROUGH END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD.
2) DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS TO DEVELOP STORMS.

HOWEVER, IF A STORM DOES DIRECTLY IMPACT KAMA, LARGE HAIL, WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 55 KT, AND BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE LINED
UP JUST EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BE FOUND LINED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL
START TO BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
ON THURSDAY.

THIS MEANS THAT THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST AND A TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER TO OUR AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AS MOISTURE IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THEN BROUGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE
SURFACE DETAILS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

FIRST...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BACKDOOR INTO THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THIS
BOUNDARY BE WHEN CONVECTION INITIATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS ARE NOT CLEAR ON JUST EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS INTERACT WITH
THE BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT NORTHWARD TO ADD TO THE FUEL. THESE STORMS
WILL ALSO NOT BE MOVING VERY FAST.

FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AREAS NEAR THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON.

BY MEMORIAL DAY...THE DRYLINE MAY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
BY THE AFTERNOON...SO THE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE IN THESE
AREAS.

WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW
ALOFT MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP EDGE THE DRYLINE EAST OF OUR
AREA.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN IN THIS FORECAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

000
FXUS64 KSJT 222326
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
626 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE KBBD...KJCT
AND KSOA TERMINALS AFTER 09Z. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW
FOR STRATUS TO AFFECT KABI AND KSJT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THIS POTENTIAL. EXPECT STRATUS TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR AROUND
14Z WITH VFR THEREAFTER. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND QUIETER WEATHER
TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED BY WARMING UP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ALONG WITH
MOISTURE BEING INCREASED OR MAINTAINED AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS
ALREADY BEGUN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES
AND WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT LOWS TO
ONLY BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. EXPECTING
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL EASE INTO THE CAPROCK REGION OF WEST
TEXAS. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONG ALONG THIS FRONT AS A
DRYLINE MIXES EAST TO THE FRONTAL LOCATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALOFT...LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 7.5 C/KM...WITH
LOW LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF NEAR 3000 J/KG. AS A RESULT...WHILE TEXAS
WILL REMAIN UNDER A RIDGE WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOWARD OUR CWA. INITIALLY...DUE TO THE INSTABILITY
THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE QUICK TO
INTENSIFY TO SEVERE STRENGTH WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF OUR AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

20

LONG TERM...
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IS THE INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY...BUT WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST LATE THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
STALL HERE. THESE FACTORS SHOULD AID IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. I INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN HAZARDS.

RAIN CHANCES LOOK MORE PROMISING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. RAIN CHANCE SHOULD SLOWLY COME TO AN END
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH I DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY WHERE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AND THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER. FOR NOW...I KNOCKED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN
SLIGHTLY...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED IF CONFIDENCE IS RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES. BEYOND SATURDAY...EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. MODELS DIVERGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS IS
INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING OUR AREA...WHILE THE
ECMWF INDICATES A RIDGE BUILDING IN. FOR NOW...I HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY.

DANIELS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  92  70  93  70  87 /   0  10  10  30  30
SAN ANGELO  96  71  96  70  89 /   0   5   5  20  30
JUNCTION  93  70  92  70  87 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24

000
FXUS64 KCRP 222307
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
607 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR BY 03Z MOST LOCATIONS AS LOW STRATUS DECK ROLLS IN.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE RESTRICTED DUE TO SMOKE/HAZE FROM THE
YUCATAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AGAIN THURSDAY. CEILINGS/VSBY`S
WILL LIFT TO VFR RANGE BY NOON ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND ATMOSPHERE DRIES SLIGHTLY. MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 13KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 18KTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  92  77  89  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  89  75  89  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            77  97  76  97  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             75  93  76  91  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          77  86  77  82  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75  97  75  96  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  92  77  91  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  84  77  84  76  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM

000
FXUS64 KLUB 222100
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
400 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...

...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FOCUS IN THE SHORT-TERM...

ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE APPROACHING WEST TEXAS...DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER THE PACIFIC NW...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS NEWD FROM THE MS
VLY INTO THE MIDWEST. THE LATTER TROUGH HAS DRIVEN A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS FRONT WILL
BE A CRUCIAL PLAYER IN OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES TOMORROW.

ALSO AT THE SURFACE...AN STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTH TX WAS
BEGINNING TO WASH OUT/LIFT NORTH WITH INCREASING SRLY FLOW AND MOIST
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE. THE WAA REGIME WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LVL JET KICKS IN...DRAGGING MID 50S TO
MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM MID
50S NW TO NEAR 70 SE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGH-DEGREE OF
SPREAD REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF EARLY MORNING ELEVATED
CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE COLD FRONT/WARM
FRONT INTERSECTION IN CENTRAL TO NW OKLAHOMA. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR
US BECAUSE THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE/ACCELERATE THE FRONT TO THE SW...AND HELP DETERMINE WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...THE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT DOES NOT PARTICULARLY HELP OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOCATION OF INITIAL CONVECTION. IN GENERAL THOUGH...WE EXPECT THE
FRONT TO BACKDOOR INTO OUR NE ZONES AROUND MID-DAY...AND PROGRESS
WESTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE FA IN MODEST...ALBEIT
INCREASING...UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIKELY BE ENHANCED ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LVL
WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT. ON THE CAPROCK...SHALLOW
MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...AND A DRYLINE IS
LIKELY TO SET UP IN VICINITY OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WHILE CAPPING
MAY INITIALLY BE A CONCERN EAST OF THE FRONT AND DRYLINE...FCST
SOUNDINGS ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARIES SHOULD CINH GOING
TO ZERO BY AROUND 21 UTC. THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION WILL BE THE
PREFERRED AREA FOR CI AND AS OF THIS AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS BRISCOE...FLOYD COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS SWISHER/HALE COUNTIES. FORECAST MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000 TO 3000 J/KG IN THIS AREA SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID CELL
INTENSIFICATION. SHEAR SHOULD BE AUGMENTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
LOOK LIKE A STRONG BET TO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...FCST 0-1 KM EHI VALUES > 2 NEAR THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AS WELL. LCL/S WILL INITIALLY BE
SOMEWHAT HIGH BUT WILL LIKELY DECREASE AROUND 0 UTC. HOWEVER...IF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST THEN STORMS WILL ONLY
HAVE A SMALL RESIDENCE TIME ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL KEEP THE
WINDOW OF TORNADIC THREAT FAIRLY SHORT.

FORECAST PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...THEN PERHAPS
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS CONVECTION GROWS UPSCALE IN THE EVENING AS
DISCUSSED BELOW.

MEANWHILE...BACK TO THE WEST...MORE ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH NEAR THE TX-NM STATE LINE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE SOME
STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
A PROTRACTED ACTIVE WX PATTERN LIES AHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY MUCH OF THE FINAL WEEK OF
MAY AS SEASONABLY RICH GULF MOISTURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
MOST OF WEST TEXAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD ENSURE MINIMAL EASTERLY DRYLINE MIXING
EACH AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL OPEN THE WINDOW FOR PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE ENTIRE CWA...SOMETHING WE HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE TO SAY FOR A
LONG TIME! BECAUSE OF SUSTAINED S-SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS...OPTED TO
RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND NARROW THE DIURNAL
TEMP RANGE IN ANTICIPATION OF MILDER NIGHTS AND NOT-AS-HOT
AFTERNOONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN TSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE CWA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES SOUTHWEST /LIKELY
AIDED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS/ AND RECEIVES SOME CONTRIBUTION OF
LIFT FROM AN INTENSIFYING SELY LLJ. COUPLING OF THIS LLJ WITH A
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK SHOULD ONLY BOLSTER DEEP ASCENT SUPPORTIVE
OF NUMEROUS TSTORMS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF
AN MCS IF MODELS ARE CORRECT. PROVIDED THIS IS CORRECT...THEN THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND TO WANE AS WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY ROBUST OR DRY ENOUGH FOR AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE WIND
EVENT. HOWEVER...CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE ON THE RISE GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN
UNSEASONABLY RICH PWATS AOA 1.5 INCHES. ADD TO THIS FAVORABLE CORFIDI
VECTORS SUPPORTIVE OF STORM PROPAGATION/REDEVELOPMENT INTO A LOW-
LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND THE STAGE COULD BE SET FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE
RAIN TOTALS IN SOME LOCALES OFF THE CAPROCK. RECENT SURVEY BY OUR
REGIONAL HYDROLOGIST SHOWED MINIMAL COVERAGE OF FUELS IN SOME
AREAS FAVORED TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...SO THIS
WOULD ONLY AMPLIFY RUNOFF AND THE THREAT FOR FLOODING. ADDITIONAL
ISO-SCT STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS PLAUSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND
THIS MCS GIVEN A PERSISTENT SELY LLJ DIRECTED OVER THE CWA.

HISTORY WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THESE NOCTURNAL STORMS DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND NOT LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING
AS SHOWN BY THE GFS OR ECMWF CAMPS. IF THIS IS CORRECT...THEN
ROUND TWO OF TSTRMS SHOULD BE IN STORE FRI AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER EAST EXPOSING THE SOUTH PLAINS TO A MORE
UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW. IN A NUTSHELL...THIS FLOW REGIME CAMPS OUT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE SRN
ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE...SO
HAVE ENDED MENTION OF ISOLATED DRYLINE TSTORMS BEGINNING
TUESDAY...THOUGH THIS MAY INEVITABLY BE EXTENDED IN FURTHER IN
TIME IN LATER FORECASTS IF SUFFICIENT MODEL CONTINUITY EXISTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  89  59  82  60 /  10  20  30  40  20
TULIA         61  89  62  83  62 /  10  40  50  40  20
PLAINVIEW     62  90  64  84  63 /  10  30  50  40  20
LEVELLAND     64  92  64  84  64 /   0  20  40  40  20
LUBBOCK       66  93  66  86  65 /   0  20  50  40  30
DENVER CITY   63  92  65  85  64 /   0  20  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    66  93  65  86  65 /   0  20  40  40  30
CHILDRESS     62  88  65  85  66 /  10  60  60  30  20
SPUR          67  92  67  87  66 /  10  30  60  40  30
ASPERMONT     71  95  69  87  67 /  10  20  60  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/93

000
FXUS64 KHGX 222051
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
351 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES APPEARS
TO BE WASHING OUT THIS AFTN. NOT A LOT (IF ANY) DEVELOPMENT NOTED
SO FAR AND IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE CAP IS HOLDING.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THIS NEXT FCST PACKAGE AS SE TX SEEMS TO
BE SETTLING INTO OUR MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH THE PERS-
ISTENT LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH UP RIDGING ALOFT. THIS
RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BREAKDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES PUSH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILST
THE TRACKS OF THESE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION...THE TAIL END OF THESE SYSTEMS COULD EFFECT THE FAR
NRN PARTS OF OUR CWFA FRI/SAT. THUS NO REAL ARGUMENTS WITH THE LOW
POPS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY
DRY (POPS NOT RH) FCST WITH TEMPS AT (AROUND) SEASONAL NORMS THESE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  91  71  90  70 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  90  72  90  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  81  74  82  73 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KCRP 222012
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
312 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...THE WEAK COLD FRONT
HAS LIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO WASH
OUT. WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ALONG WITH SLIGHT DRYING. DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
WIND TOMORROW. WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND MIXING TODAY HAS
RESULTED IN MORE PREVALENT HAZE AND SMOKE OVER THE REGION...
ORIGINATING FROM THE AGRICULTURAL BURNS IN MEXICO. SATELLITE
IMAGERY STILL CONFIRMS A DEEP FETCH OF SMOKE AND HAZE BACK INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPEHCE...SO PERIODS OF HAZY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY BUT HUMID AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS TRAP
MOISTURE UNDER A LARGE CAP FRIDAY/SATURDAY...SO HAVE BACKED OFF
TEMPERATURES A BIT IN ANTICIPATION OF MORE HUMIDITY AND POTENTIAL
CLOUD COVER. MODELS BACK OFF ON MOISTURE POOLING SUN/MON AS RIDGE
REBUILDS SOMEWHAT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS THEN DISAGREE ON THE DISPOSITION OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND OUT ONTO THE PLAINS.
GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND ACTUALLY PRODUCES PRECIPITATION FROM VERY
LARGE PWAT VALUES AND MODERATE FORCING IN THE WED/WED NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. GIVEN WHAT IT HAS TO WORK WITH THIS APPEARS A BIT
OVERDONE SO WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW OUT ON THAT END OF
THE PERIOD AND WAIT FOR SOME CONTINUITY OR AGREEMENT. IN THE
MEANTIME TEMPS WILL REMAIN AOA NORMALS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ONSHORE WIND FLOW PATTERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  92  77  89  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  89  75  89  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            77  97  76  97  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             75  93  76  91  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          77  86  77  82  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75  97  75  96  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  92  77  91  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  84  77  84  76  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JR/76...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM

000
FXUS64 KSJT 222004
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
304 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND QUIETER WEATHER
TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED BY WARMING UP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ALONG WITH
MOISTURE BEING INCREASED OR MAINTAINED AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS
ALREADY BEGUN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES
AND WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT LOWS TO
ONLY BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. EXPECTING
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL EASE INTO THE CAPROCK REGION OF WEST
TEXAS. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONG ALONG THIS FRONT AS A
DRYLINE MIXES EAST TO THE FRONTAL LOCATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALOFT...LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 7.5 C/KM...WITH
LOW LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF NEAR 3000 J/KG. AS A RESULT...WHILE TEXAS
WILL REMAIN UNDER A RIDGE WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOWARD OUR CWA. INITIALLY...DUE TO THE INSTABILITY
THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE QUICK TO
INTENSIFY TO SEVERE STRENGTH WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF OUR AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

20

.LONG TERM...
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IS THE INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY...BUT WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST LATE THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
STALL HERE. THESE FACTORS SHOULD AID IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. I INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN HAZARDS.

RAIN CHANCES LOOK MORE PROMISING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. RAIN CHANCE SHOULD SLOWLY COME TO AN END
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH I DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY WHERE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AND THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER. FOR NOW...I KNOCKED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN
SLIGHTLY...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED IF CONFIDENCE IS RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES. BEYOND SATURDAY...EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. MODELS DIVERGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS IS
INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING OUR AREA...WHILE THE
ECMWF INDICATES A RIDGE BUILDING IN. FOR NOW...I HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY.

DANIELS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  70  93  70  87  70 /  10  10  30  30  30
SAN ANGELO  71  96  70  89  71 /   5   5  20  30  40
JUNCTION  70  92  70  87  71 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

20/DANIELS

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 222001
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
201 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL FLOW INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS AND AS A RESULT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BRING WARM DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE BORDERLAND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE IS COMBINING WITH WESTERLY FLOW TO BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM DRY WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AN UNUSUALLY DEEP HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH FOR LATE MAY WAS LOCATED ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED CLOSED CIRCULATING OVER OREGON. THE UPPER
LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE WASHINGTON/OREGON VICINITY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHILE MEAN TROUGH REMAINS ALONG WEST COAST
REGION.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH DRY LINE SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH WIND SHIFT LINE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE WEST OF ITS AXIS. THUS GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT FROM EAST TO WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM LOW 40S TO LOW 50S FROM THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ACCORDINGLY CAPES WILL INCREASE FROM NEAR 500 J/KG TO 1500
J/KG DURING THIS TIME WITH PRECIPITABLE FROM .75 TO 1.2 INCHES.
THESE FACTORS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
FROM THE RIO GRANDE EASTWARD WITH STRONGEST STORMS FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. INITIATION MECHANISMS SHOULD INCLUDE SURFACE
HEATING...DRY LINE CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLE WEAK SHORT WAVES
PASSING ALOFT. STORM THREAT SHOULD BE MAINLY EASTERN OTERO AND
HUDSPETH COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD
TO EL PASO AND WESTERN OTERO COUNTIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEST
OF THE RIO GRANDE WARM AND DRY.

BY SUNDAY A SLIGHT EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE
FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA WITH DRY
LINE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST. THUS EXPECT WARM
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/00Z-24/00Z.
VFR CONDS THRU PD WITH SKC-SCT200-250. GENERALLY W TO SW WINDS
12-18G25KTS DURING DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AND UNDER 10KTS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY LIGHTNING RISK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A WARM PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AS A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETS UP OVER THE REGION. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR WEST
TEXAS AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL
SET THE REGION UP FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
EAST OF IT. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME DRY LIGHTNING NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE DRYLINE WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LESS. FURTHER EAST INTO
HUDSPETH COUNTY GENERALLY WET THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

THROUGH SATURDAY WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS...BUT STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK WINDS WILL PICK UP
AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS SEEING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ANYTIME BETWEEN SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  96  70  94  68 /   0  10  10  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA           62  94  66  91  63 /   0  10  20  20  20
LAS CRUCES              58  94  61  93  59 /   0   0   0  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              58  94  61  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              45  70  49  70  46 /   0  10  20  30  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   61  93  64  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             55  88  55  91  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  56  94  57  94  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               57  94  57  91  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      66  94  68  93  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
DELL CITY               57  94  60  93  57 /   0  10  20  30  30
FORT HANCOCK            64  95  68  96  66 /   0  10  10  20  20
LOMA LINDA              57  87  59  87  57 /   0  10  10  10  10
FABENS                  66  95  67  94  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
SANTA TERESA            60  96  63  93  62 /   0   0  10  10  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  93  69  91  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           49  95  52  91  52 /   0   0  10  10  10
HATCH                   59  91  61  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                61  95  62  93  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               57  97  61  94  59 /   0  10  10  10  10
MAYHILL                 53  81  57  79  54 /   0  10  20  30  30
MESCALERO               45  83  48  82  45 /   0  10  10  30  30
TIMBERON                44  81  49  80  46 /   0  10  10  30  30
WINSTON                 48  84  49  83  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               56  89  57  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               56  93  57  89  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
LAKE ROBERTS            49  85  49  84  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  59  88  58  88  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   51  93  52  93  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              42  90  42  90  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 58  89  57  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  57  94  59  92  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 56  93  56  93  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          60  94  60  93  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              55  89  55  89  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ

000
FXUS64 KEWX 222001
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
301 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROGRESSING AS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED WITH TROUGH MOVING TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS NM. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING DOMINANT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL BRING GULF
MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION QUICKLY. THIS WILL BE A DRY PATTERN
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
RIDGE FRIDAY WHICH WILL MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO CHANCES FOR RAIN UNTIL THE
LAST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN TEXAS BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  95  71  94  72 /   0   0  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  93  71  93  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     69  95  70  94  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            68  93  69  91  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  99  74  96  76 /   0   0  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  92  70  91  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  97  72  96  73 /   0   0  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  92  71  91  72 /   0   0  10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  92  74  93  74 /   0   0  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  95  72  94  73 /   0   0  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  94  72  94  73 /   0   0  -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32

000
FXUS64 KAMA 221957
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
257 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE LINED
UP JUST EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BE FOUND LINED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL
START TO BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
ON THURSDAY.

THIS MEANS THAT THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST AND A TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER TO OUR AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AS MOISTURE IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THEN BROUGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE
SURFACE DETAILS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

FIRST...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BACKDOOR INTO THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THIS
BOUNDARY BE WHEN CONVECTION INITIATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS ARE NOT CLEAR ON JUST EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS INTERACT WITH
THE BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT NORTHWARD TO ADD TO THE FUEL. THESE STORMS
WILL ALSO NOT BE MOVING VERY FAST.

FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AREAS NEAR THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON.

BY MEMORIAL DAY...THE DRYLINE MAY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
BY THE AFTERNOON...SO THE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE IN THESE
AREAS.

WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW
ALOFT MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP EDGE THE DRYLINE EAST OF OUR
AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN IN THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                57  83  60  81  60 /  10  50  30  30  30
BEAVER OK                  54  75  59  84  63 /  10  20  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              49  73  58  82  59 /  10  20  20  20  30
BORGER TX                  58  80  59  83  64 /  10  30  30  30  20
BOYS RANCH TX              56  87  64  87  63 /  10  30  30  30  30
CANYON TX                  57  86  61  84  61 /  10  50  30  30  30
CLARENDON TX               61  83  64  80  63 /  10  50  40  30  20
DALHART TX                 51  82  58  83  59 /  10  30  20  30  30
GUYMON OK                  51  78  59  81  63 /  10  20  20  20  20
HEREFORD TX                57  90  61  84  59 /  10  30  30  40  30
LIPSCOMB TX                56  76  61  80  65 /  10  20  30  20  20
PAMPA TX                   57  77  58  79  61 /  10  30  30  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                56  81  61  79  65 /  10  50  40  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              58  87  64  81  64 /  10  50  50  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/15

000
FXUS64 KFWD 221952
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
252 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
DEWPOINTS ARE RECOVERING TODAY SO TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER. LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL RETURN
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES
NORTHWARD. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK BY LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY
WHILE THE BOUNDARY STALLS AROUND I-20. OVERALL...THURSDAY WILL BE A
NICE DAY AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR AND LIGHT WINDS.

RIDGING WILL BUILD ALOFT TO THE WEST THEN SLIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING
CONVECTION OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME OF IT MOVING EAST ALONG AN
ELEVATED FRONT AND ACROSS PARTS OF OUR CWA. OUR EVALUATION OF
SHORTWAVE LIFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTION PROFILES
INDICATE THAT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 500MB
(18,000 FEET) WITH DRIER AIR BELOW. AS A RESULT...FEEL THERE COULD
BE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ENTER THE CWA FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. IF THE CONVECTION IS ABLE TO TAP MOISTURE
CLOSER TO 850 MB... THEN A PSEUDO INVERTED-V SOUNDING WOULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.
ERGO...WE ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT RAINFALL BUT WILL CARRY LOW
POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME OF THE PANHANDLE CONVECTION MOVING
INTO THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

HAVE DECIDED TO END THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND KEEP IT DRY THOUGHT THE REST OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE SEASONAL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.      75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  88  71  85  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              67  90  70  88  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             61  84  65  81  63 /  10  10  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            62  87  68  84  67 /  10  10  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          63  87  70  84  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            67  91  73  88  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           65  90  71  86  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         67  91  71  88  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            68  91  70  87  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  91  70  86  68 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75

000
FXUS64 KMAF 221937
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
237 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION TODAY...BUT AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CAUSE FLOW TO BACK FROM THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BACKING FLOW WILL
CAUSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SURGE WESTWARD INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE CWA HOWEVER WITH NO SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
ON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEING THE MAIN TRIGGERS. THE ONE
FACTOR THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST FOR WILL BE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONE
SUCH FEATURE MAY PUSH SOUTH TOMORROW EVENING AS CONVECTION FIRES
IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. AS MENTIONED BY
THE MID SHIFT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM ONE
HALF INCH CURRENTLY TO WELL OVER AN INCH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY
MEANING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE
THREAT FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT HOWEVER WILL BE LOW AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES JUST ARE NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH.

THE INCREASE IN PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN
BELOW CLIMO AND MAKE FOR A PLEASANT NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL WINDS
BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY BY SUNDAY SO DECIDED TO END POPS AT
THAT TIME THOUGH THE GENERAL WEST COAST TROUGH/CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE REGIME WILL CONTINUE SO CANNOT RULE OUT RAIN CHANCES INTO
NEXT WEEK. IN FACT SEVERAL MODELS DO SHOW RAIN NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
NOT INTRODUCE POPS THAT FAR OUT GIVEN HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY.

HENNIG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  97  68  85  /   0  20  30  40
BIG SPRING TX              71  94  70  86  /   0  20  30  40
CARLSBAD NM                65  99  68  88  /   0  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  72 100  73  86  /   0  20  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  99  70  85  /   0  20  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  93  62  82  /   0  20  30  30
HOBBS NM                   65  95  66  85  /   0  20  30  30
MARFA TX                   61  91  62  81  /   0  20  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    71  95  70  85  /   0  20  30  30
ODESSA TX                  71  96  70  85  /   0  20  30  30
WINK TX                    70 100  71  88  /   0  30  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/10

000
FXUS64 KBRO 221857
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
157 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY THURSDAY NIGHT/... MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG OR JUST INLAND FROM THE TEXAS COAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SURGING NORTH OVER THIS WEAK BOUNDARY A SURFACE RIDGE
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MAIN FEATURE IS THICK LOW CLOUDINESS AND HIGHER
DEW POINTS. THE CLOUDS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME BREAKING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LACK OF STRONGER WINDS TO MIX THROUGH THE
SURFACE INVERSION. EVEN A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE REPORTED
AROUND BROWNSVILLE EARLIER TODAY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THROUGH THE EVENING FOR ALL AREAS BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONLY A TRACE WITH NO REAL LIFT OF THE MOISTURE
OCCURRING AND THE INVERSION KEEPING A CAP ON THINGS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES FARTHER EAST THURSDAY AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN MIXING. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND HEAT
DEVELOPING. VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER AND NO APPRECIABLE LIFT OF
LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR ANY RAIN ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TO WARM
SLIGHTLY WITH MORE SUNSHINE WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS. BOTH MAV AND
MET ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EACH OTHER WITH THE GOING FORECAST
TAKING A BLEND OF TWO.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...STRONG H5 RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS ON FRIDAY...CAPPING THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT
AND STEERING SYSTEMS WELL TO THE NORTH. DOMINANT SFC RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SE
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. FIRES IN SOUTHERN MEXICO ARE STILL
ONGOING...SO HAZE AND SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
FOR HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...GENERALLY IN THE 90S...WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. MODELS STILL DISAGREEING ON UPPER PATTERN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED RIDGING AS SUMMERTIME
PATTERN TRIES TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION. WENT WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY OF MID 90S TO 100 WEST.


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LAGUNA THURSDAY
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST BUT NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED. STEADY STATE SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND COULD LOWER TO ONE MORE FOOT ON THURSDAY.


FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MODEST SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 15 KNOTS EACH DAY...KEEPING SEAS
IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  89  78  86 /  20   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          76  90  77  88 /  20   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            75  93  75  89 /  20   0   0   0
MCALLEN              76  96  75  93 /  20   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  98  76  94 /  20   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  83  78  83 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

59/64

000
FXUS64 KSJT 221807 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
107 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHEAST WINDS. AFTER 09Z...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN TO
THE AREA...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SITES. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED A LOW CEILING AT
KSJT AND KABI YET...BUT THIS CAN BE UPDATED IN LATER FORECASTS IF
LOW CLOUDS APPEAR LIKELY. WE ARE NOT QUITE CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET AT
THESE SITES TO INTRODUCE LOW CLOUDS. LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AT ALL SITES. 20

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...
AFTER HAVING THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO EAST TEXAS AND A LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM 89-94 DEGREES ACROSS OUR AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL TONIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY...CENTERED VERY NEAR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL RETURN...BRINGING A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS TO THE AREA. THIS FLOW WILL BE AN UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WEST TEXAS...AND CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
OUT THERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MEAN WIND IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KTS WILL HELP KEEP SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
GOING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND MAY ALLOW IT TO REACH
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

MORE OF THE SAME FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING FARTHER EAST...THIS WILL ALLOW A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO REACH MORE OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES CLIMB OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WITHOUT ANY
REAL HELP FROM ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...CAP MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION FROM FORMING. THUS...A DRY AND
WARMER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  70  93  70  88  70 /  10  10  20  20  20
SAN ANGELO  71  96  70  90  71 /   5   5  20  10  10
JUNCTION  70  92  70  88  71 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLUB 221750
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1250 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MAINLY S-SE
SURFACE WINDS. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KTS
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AND PREVENT
LOW-LVL WIND SHEAR MENTION IN TAF. THERE IS ALSO A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF KCDS AROUND THE 10 UTC TO
15 UTC TIME FRAME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED WITH SLOWLY BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...MODERATE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PULLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WAVE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BREECH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING
BUT SHOULD ENCOUNTER SUBSTANTIAL RESISTANCE TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST RECENT WRF/NAM SOLUTION HAS COME MUCH MORE
INTO LINE WITH THE GFS BUILDING A SUBSIDENCE CAPPING INVERSION
BETWEEN ABOUT 500 MB AND 600 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. AS THE WAVE PULLS THROUGH DURING THE EVENING WITH A 55KT
JET MAXIMUM AT H300 MB ACROSS THE AREA...A LOW LEVEL JET ALSO WILL
START TO DEVELOP ASSISTING IN PULLING MUCH BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER GIVEN THE TREND
TOWARDS MORE CAPPING WE WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. SIGNALS OF A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA SOUTHEASTWARD ARE STILL APPARENT VERY LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH
REMAIN JUST OUT OF OUR AREA. STILL...THIS MAY LEAD TO AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OR AN INCREASE IN EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WESTWARD LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. LITTLE
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
PROSPECTS CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO IMPACT
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING
PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MID TO UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CANADA. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OWING TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT/S LOW LEVEL
JET USHERING RICHER GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX EAST SOMEWHERE IN VICINITY OF THE
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK DURING PEAK HEATING. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CREATING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HELICITY
ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERFACE. INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND LOOKS TO BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE
TIMING OF THIS PERTURBATION WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SYNOPTIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT...PERHAPS COUPLING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET. LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR WILL RECEIVE A
BOOST HEADING INTO THE EVENING AS A 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AND LENGTHENS ALREADY CURVED HODOGRAPHS.

BELIEVE INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE DRYLINE AND
BACKDOOR FRONT MEET BY MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWEST IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT AND RETREATING DRYLINE INTO THE EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THREATS AREAWIDE...WHILE
A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST BASED ON WHERE
HELICITY/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ARE ENHANCED DUE TO BACKED WINDS ALONG
THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE INCH TO INCH AND A HALF
RANGE WILL ALSO PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE RETREATING FRIDAY BY ENTERING NEW MEXICO
THANKS TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND LEE
TROUGHING NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL FAVOR WESTERN ZONES IN
TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
DRYLINE PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR INITIATION. AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO MIGRATE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
THE DRYLINE TO BEGIN MIXING FARTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTH/ROLLING
PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AFTER SUNDAY AS PROGRESSION OF
THIS SYSTEM AND DRYLINE PLACEMENT WILL DICTATE STORM CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
UNDERNEATH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        87  57  86  59  82 /   0  10  20  30  30
TULIA         88  59  86  62  83 /   0  10  40  40  20
PLAINVIEW     89  61  87  64  84 /   0  10  30  40  20
LEVELLAND     90  63  89  64  84 /   0  10  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       90  65  90  66  86 /   0  10  20  40  20
DENVER CITY   90  64  93  65  85 /   0  10  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    92  65  90  65  86 /   0  10  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     91  63  88  65  85 /  10  10  60  60  20
SPUR          91  63  90  67  88 /  10  10  30  50  20
ASPERMONT     93  67  92  69  91 /  10  10  20  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33

000
FXUS64 KAMA 221744 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1244 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS.  NO THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED NEAR TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO GUST NO HIGHER THAN 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO THEN
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOUNDARY SLIPS INTO
NORTHERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED
LAYER AROUND 1500 FEET EXPECTED AT KGUY.  OTHERWISE...NO CLOUDS BELOW
10000 FEET FORECAST FOR THE TERMINALS.  NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FORESEEN.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS A LOW LEVEL JET
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 03Z...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...THINK THIS IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 10 AND 15KT...AND THE MAX WIND SPEED IN THE JET
IS EXPECTED TO BE 40KT...THUS SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

JOHNSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND THE ECMWF INDICATING THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES REMAINING DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THEN BREAKING DOWN OR
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY LATE THURSDAY. UPPER FLOW
THEN TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD BY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND ALLOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLES WHICH BECOMES
STATIONARY. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A DRYLINE SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTH AND WESTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.

AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THE UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN LOW CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY FOG WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
MUCH OF THE MORNING LATE THIS WEEK. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING CAN OCCUR WHICH SHOULD
TAKE PLACE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL LOWER CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY FOR NOW WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE THIS WEEKEND. AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS THE PANHANDLES TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE
ON SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN A LATER TIMING FOR ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW.
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE DRYLINE HANGING BACK TO THE WEST IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
DRYLINE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE PANHANDLES AND AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUING TO PREVAIL...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 TO 20
MPH OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 TO 20
PERCENT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/15

000
FXUS64 KEWX 221739 AAB
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1239 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013


.AVIATION...A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO
REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND A WEAKENING FRONT
RETURNS NORTH. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS TO KEEP
CLOUDS IN THE MOST PART IN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WESTERN AREAS NEAR KDRT SEEING VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT REMAINING TO THE EAST. MVFR CIGS IN THE KSAT
REGION TO LIFT TO VFR AROUND 20Z WITH BKN CIGS AT AROUND 5K FEET.
LOOKS LIKE THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF KAUS WITH
VFR TO PREVAIL. THE LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
KSAT TO KAUS AND SPREADING WEST TO KDRT AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE THURSDAY. CLOUDS TO HANG IN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
BETTER MIXING THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO BREAK UP THE STRATUS AND HELP
CIGS RISE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

AVIATION...
A BAND OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INCLUDING
KDRT WHILE VFR FEW-SCT STRATUS PREVAILS NORTH OF KUVA TO KPEZ TO
K3T5 LINE AND SCT-BKN STRATUS PREVAILS SOUTH OF LINE. EXPECT
IFR/LIFR VSBYS EAST OF A KILE TO KT35 TO K11R LINE AND IFR/LIFR
CIGS SOUTHEAST OF A K11R TO KCOT LINE TO REMAIN JUST EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. VFR SKIES WILL RETURN TO THE RIO
GRANDE BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN MIX OUT BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS WILL BECOME S TO SE AT 5
TO 12 KTS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
EARLY THIS MORNING THE WEAK FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM
EAGLE PASS TO THREE RIVERS TO EAGLE LAKE. CONVECTION WAS STILL
FIRING ON THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE MESO-HIGH
LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL WEAKEN TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 90S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. LOW CLOUDS WILL ROLL IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A TYPICAL MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH MORNING LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL START OUT CLOUDY BUT THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO MID/LATE JUNE NORMALS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A NORTH/SOUTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL BE LOCATED OVER
TEXAS ON FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION THRU
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
IS A DRY SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SO NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE A PERSISTENT S TO SE LOW LEVEL FETCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THUS THE FAMILIAR LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER PATTERN OF
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IS TRENDING TOWARDS CLIMO.
HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON OUR
BIAS-CORRECTED DATABASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  71  94  72  93 /   0   0   0  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  90  69  92  70  91 /   0   0   0  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     91  70  93  71  92 /   0   0   0  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            88  68  91  70  89 /   0   0   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           96  74  97  73  94 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  69  91  71  89 /   0   0   0  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             93  71  96  72  93 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  70  92  71  91 /   0   0   0  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  72  91  73  91 /  -    0   0  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  73  93  74  92 /   0   0   0  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  72  93  72  91 /   0   0   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...99

000
FXUS64 KCRP 221739
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1239 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD RISE INTO VFR RANGE. SMOKE THAT
ORIGINATED FROM MEXICO WILL ALSO PRODUCE HAZE ISSUES TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW. VISIBILITIES IN THE 5-6SM RANGE WILL OCCUR IN MANY
LOCATIONS. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO 2-4SM. MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY IFR CEILINGS SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL
BEND THIS EVENING...AND EXPAND INLAND OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY E TO SE
WINDS 5-10 KTS BECOMING SE 8-12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  90  75  89  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          72  90  74  89  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            77 100  76  97  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             73  94  75  91  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          76  88  75  82  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           73  97  74  96  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  92  75  91  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       76  85  75  84  76  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JR/76...AVIATION

000
FXUS64 KMAF 221729
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1229 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING
OVER THE AREA.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE QUIET DAY TODAY BEFORE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER SETS IN
ACROSS W TX AND SE NM. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TODAY AS THE PESKY UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FINALLY BEGINS
TO MOVE EAST. WARMING 850 MB TEMPS (~28C) SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO
REACH THE 90S TO NEAR 100 MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE
AREA. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK KEEPING
THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LOW. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS PWATS INCREASE TO ~1.3 INCHES OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA (NEARLY +2SD FOR LATE MAY). INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE DRYLINE. AT
THIS TIME, THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY LOOKS HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
TO NEAR 100 WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY MORE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

000
FXUS64 KBRO 221727 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1227 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN INTACT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND THIS MAY AID IN KEEPING CLOUD COVER A LITTLE THICKER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE WILL KEEP MVFR
CIGS INTACT AT KHRL THROUGH 19Z AND THROUGH 20Z AT KBRO. DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD ALLOW CLOUD BASES TO RISE ABOVE MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DID OPT TO KEEP BKN AT KBRO AND KHRL. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS THIS EVENING...STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
AROUND 02Z KBRO...03Z KHRL AND 04Z KMFE. WITH CONTINUED
COOLING...CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER INTO IFR AROUND 07Z. LATE IN THE
PERIOD... CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFT INTO MVFR AROUND 15Z. WE DID KEEP A
MENTION OF BR OVERNIGHT AND HZ TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
BRINGING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ON GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF IFR TO CONTINUE
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH AROUND
MID MORNING. LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MIXING OUT/LIFT BETWEEN
14 AND 16Z. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RESTRICTED TO AROUND 4 MILES IN
SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT HAZE FROM AGRICULTURAL BURNS
IN YUCATAN MEXICO. SOME OF THIS HAZE TO MIX WITH SOME VSBY TO
IMPROVE TODAY. SOUTHEAST WIND TO BE LIGHTER TODAY WITH MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS...GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 3Z THURSDAY BUT COULD DEVELOP
CLOSER TO 06Z IN MOST AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE 500MB RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST. TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT PREVAILS. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST TO
THE UPPER 90S WEST UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AGRICULTURAL FIRES
OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF YUCATAN WILL PROVIDE AREAS OF SMOKE/HAZE
ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST TODAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WAS INHERITED FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...
AND THAT TREND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. BROAD
500 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND EXTENDED OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...PRODUCING THE ANTICIPATED DRY WEATHER
WITH NEAR NORMAL VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BRO CWFA.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...CURRENTLY BUOY020 REPORTS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 14 KNOTS AND SEAS
AROUND 4 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MAY OCCUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
POSSIBLE...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

24/05

000
FXUS64 KHGX 221717
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1217 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...

SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS AROUND TODAY. STILL SEEING SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AND THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO SEEING
ISOLATED SHWRS NEAR HOU. AN ISOLATED TSTM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THIS AFT ACROSS SE AREAS...BUT TOO LOW OF A CHC TO
INCLUDE AT ANY TAF SITES. EXPECT TO SEE AN IFR CEILING FORM AFTER
MIDNIGHT AREAWIDE...THEN LIFT TO MVFR MID-MORNING TOMORROW. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  72  91  71  90 /  10  10   0  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  72  90  72  90 /  30  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  75  81  74  82 /  40   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...33

000
FXUS64 KFWD 221714
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1214 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...DAMP GROUND AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD NOT BE
AS EXTENSIVE AS THIS MORNING AND STAY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. THEREFORE...WILL MENTION 3 MILES AND 1000 FT CEILINGS IN
WACO FROM 10Z THROUGH 15Z.

A SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 6 AND 11 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD INCREASE ABOVE 12 KNOTS AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
THE FOG HAS BURNED OFF ACROSS THE CWA. WE ARE EXPECTING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME AFTERNOON CU POSSIBLE IN THE
EAST.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST OF
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 500 MB AND THE BEST
LIFT STAYS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. CAN/T RULE OUT ELEVATED
CONVECTION REACHING OUR CWA AT THIS TIME AND WILL EVALUATE THIS
MORNING/S MODEL RUNS FOR MORE INSIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE LEE SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF TO
OUR EAST. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND NOW FOG IS FORMING
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. A FEW AREAS WILL SEE DENSE FOG...AND IT
SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING
LOCATED FROM THE BIG BEND NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST OVER OUR AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND AIDED BY AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE DRY LINE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD ADVECT EAST INTO THE AREA. I HAVE KEPT LOW POPS
FOR THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOT OF THE CONVECTIVE
EXTENT DEPENDS ON JUST HOW STRONG OF A SHORT WAVE WILL ACTUALLY
SUPPORT THE EVENT.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...AND ALTHOUGH THE GFS DEVELOPS SPOTTY PRECIPITATION MOST
DAYS...THE POPS ARE QUITE LOW AND THE ECMWF SEEMS DRIER. HAVE GONE
WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH IF LATER RUNS BECOME WETTER
POPS WILL HAVE TO INCREASE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH THE
FLOW TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND HUMIDITY INCREASING AS
WELL. AFTER THE LAST WEEK/S EVENTS...ALL IN ALL A FAIRLY BORING
FORECAST. 84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  64  89  70  85 /  10  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              87  67  90  71  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             82  63  85  69  81 /  10  10  10  10  20
DENTON, TX            84  64  87  70  84 /   5  10  10  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          85  64  88  71  85 /  10  10  10  10  20
DALLAS, TX            88  65  91  71  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           86  66  90  72  86 /  10  10  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         86  67  91  71  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            86  68  90  71  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  65  91  70  87 /   5  10  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/75

000
FXUS64 KFWD 221621 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1121 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
THE FOG HAS BURNED OFF ACROSS THE CWA. WE ARE EXPECTING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME AFTERNOON CU POSSIBLE IN THE
EAST.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST OF
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 500 MB AND THE BEST
LIFT STAYS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. CAN/T RULE OUT ELEVATED
CONVECTION REACHING OUR CWA AT THIS TIME AND WILL EVALUATE THIS
MORNING/S MODEL RUNS FOR MORE INSIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE LEE SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF TO
OUR EAST. 75

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE EXITING STRATUS
DECK OVER EASTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE 11-3.9 MICRON SAT IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE FOG IS ATTEMPTING TO WORK SLOWLY WEST...SO
THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT THE METRO-AREA TERMINALS MAY
EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES BETWEEN NOW AND
15Z. IT IS CURRENTLY VFR...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A MVFR VISIBILITY
FORECAST THROUGH 15Z AT DAL AND DFW BASED MAINLY ON SATELLITE
TRENDS. MEANWHILE WACO HAS ALREADY BEEN WAFFLING BETWEEN 4SM AND
A QUARTER OF A MILE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO 1/2SM FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE
KACT TAF. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KTS WITH IMPROVING VISIBILITIES LATER THIS
MORNING.   30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND NOW FOG IS FORMING
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. A FEW AREAS WILL SEE DENSE FOG...AND IT
SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING
LOCATED FROM THE BIG BEND NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST OVER OUR AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND AIDED BY AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE DRY LINE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD ADVECT EAST INTO THE AREA. I HAVE KEPT LOW POPS
FOR THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOT OF THE CONVECTIVE
EXTENT DEPENDS ON JUST HOW STRONG OF A SHORT WAVE WILL ACTUALLY
SUPPORT THE EVENT.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...AND ALTHOUGH THE GFS DEVELOPS SPOTTY PRECIPITATION MOST
DAYS...THE POPS ARE QUITE LOW AND THE ECMWF SEEMS DRIER. HAVE GONE
WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH IF LATER RUNS BECOME WETTER
POPS WILL HAVE TO INCREASE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH THE
FLOW TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND HUMIDITY INCREASING AS
WELL. AFTER THE LAST WEEK/S EVENTS...ALL IN ALL A FAIRLY BORING
FORECAST. 84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  64  89  70  85 /  10  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              87  67  90  71  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             82  63  85  69  81 /  10  10  10  10  20
DENTON, TX            84  64  87  70  84 /   5  10  10  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          85  64  88  71  85 /  10  10  10  10  20
DALLAS, TX            88  65  91  71  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           86  66  90  72  86 /  10  10  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         86  67  91  71  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            86  68  90  71  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  65  91  70  87 /   5  10  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75

000
FXUS64 KBRO 221608
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1108 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
BRINGING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ON GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF IFR TO CONTINUE
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH AROUND
MID MORNING. LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MIXING OUT/LIFT BETWEEN
14 AND 16Z. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RESTRICTED TO AROUND 4 MILES IN
SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT HAZE FROM AGRICULTURAL BURNS
IN YUCATAN MEXICO. SOME OF THIS HAZE TO MIX WITH SOME VSBY TO
IMPROVE TODAY. SOUTHEAST WIND TO BE LIGHTER TODAY WITH MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS...GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 3Z THURSDAY BUT COULD DEVELOP
CLOSER TO 06Z IN MOST AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE 500MB RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST. TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT PREVAILS. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST TO
THE UPPER 90S WEST UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AGRICULTURAL FIRES
OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF YUCATAN WILL PROVIDE AREAS OF SMOKE/HAZE
ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST TODAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WAS INHERITED FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...
AND THAT TREND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. BROAD
500 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND EXTENDED OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...PRODUCING THE ANTICIPATED DRY WEATHER
WITH NEAR NORMAL VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BRO CWFA.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...CURRENTLY BUOY020 REPORTS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 14 KNOTS AND SEAS
AROUND 4 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MAY OCCUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
POSSIBLE...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

51/51

000
FXUS64 KHGX 221558
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1058 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE ONGOING TREND OF ISO SHRA DEVELOPING ON
(AND NEAR) THIS FEATURE...WILL BE KEEPING WITH THE LOW POPS AL-
READY IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE NOT A LOT OF CHANGE
WITH THE GOING GRIDS. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUING
OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. OUTFLOW PUSHED SOUTH WITH STORM EARLIER
THIS MORNING AND NOW STORMS CATCHING BACK UP WITH THE BOUNDARY AND
WILL POSE A SEVERE THREAT (WIND) FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS IT
MOVES OUT OF LIBERTY AND POSSIBLY CHAMBERS COUNTIES. SOME
POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOME BACKBUILDING DOWN THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR HEAVY RAINS PERHAPS AS FAR BACK AS SOUTHEAST
HARRIS COUNTY. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY
SOUTH AND MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND ANY THAT DO FORM WILL BE SLOW MOVERS.

BEYOND TODAY FEW CHANGES NOTED TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE. ONSHORE FLOW
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS AND DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE S/W MOVES OUT
INTO GULF AND THEN RECIRCULATES. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASING AS
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ON FRIDAY AROUND CROCKETT AND GROVETON AREAS
IN THE MORNING THEN WESTWARD DURING THE DAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES ONLY 20 PERCENT THOUGH AS CAP MAY BE TO STRONG.
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  72  91  71  90 /  10  10   0  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  72  90  72  90 /  30  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  75  81  74  82 /  40   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KCRP 221456
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
956 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED NEAR A PORT
LAVACA TO MATHIS TO ENCINAL LINE...AND WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE
DIFFUSE THROUGH THE DAY. STILL COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH
MIDDAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS FOR TODAY AS WELL AS TO
RE-ESTABLISH TRENDS ON WINDS/DEW POINT/RH. HAZE/SMOKE TO PERSIST
ACROSS COASTAL BEND AND MARINE AREAS TODAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF A PORT LAVACA TO
LAREDO LINE AT 11Z. IFR CEILINGS ARE PREVALENT OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED. MVFR CEILINGS ARE HOLDING
OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY EXCEPT AROUND COT WHERE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR HAS MOVED IN AND CEILINGS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE 3 KFT. EXPECT
IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z THEN MVFR CIGS
WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT OF THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDS. THE
LOW CLOUDS/LOW END MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE COASTAL PLAINS
BY 02Z-03Z...WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY 08Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED
INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR A PORT LAVACA TO ENCINAL
LINE AT 09Z. LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS PRESSURE FALLS BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
THIS MORNING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 85H
ELEVATED ABOVE THE SHALLOW FRONT...ALONG WITH THE TAIL END OF THE
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EAST TEXAS...PROVIDES
LIFT OVER THIS AREA TO OVER CAP. BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
DIFFUSE BY THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. PERSISTENT AREA OF HAZE/SMOKE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL LEAD TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY MAINTAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT/FRI. HOWEVER...MODELS
PROG A SHORT WAVE TO ROUND THE TOP PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL
DRAW MOISTURE N...MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. PWAT`S ARE PROGD TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE W CWA...BUT MOISTURE STILL
LOOKS TOO LIMITED AND A MARGINAL CAP IS PROGD TO BE IN PLACE SO WILL
NOT MENTION PRECIP JUST YET FOR FRI. THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR
THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL AS A SECOND WEAKER SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SILENT 10 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
CWA...BUT DO HAVE 10 POPS STRETCHING TO THE NE CWA FRI EVENING AS
THE FIRST UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAY
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE UPPER SHORT WAVE AND
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS S TX
SUNDAY/MON AS AN UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE PAC NW...LEADING TO A
WARMING TREND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS FOR WINDS...WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE MODELS WHICH WAS A FEW KNOTS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCSTD...MAINLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS ACROSS THE
MARINE ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  75  90  75  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          89  72  90  74  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            97  77 100  76  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             92  73  94  75  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          87  76  88  75  82  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           96  73  97  74  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  74  92  75  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  76  85  75  84  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JR/76...SHORT TERM

000
FXUS64 KLUB 221144
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
644 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED WITH SLOWLY BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...MODERATE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PULLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WAVE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BREECH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING
BUT SHOULD ENCOUNTER SUBSTANTIAL RESISTANCE TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST RECENT WRF/NAM SOLUTION HAS COME MUCH MORE
INTO LINE WITH THE GFS BUILDING A SUBSIDENCE CAPPING INVERSION
BETWEEN ABOUT 500 MB AND 600 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. AS THE WAVE PULLS THROUGH DURING THE EVENING WITH A 55KT
JET MAXIMUM AT H300 MB ACROSS THE AREA...A LOW LEVEL JET ALSO WILL
START TO DEVELOP ASSISTING IN PULLING MUCH BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER GIVEN THE TREND
TOWARDS MORE CAPPING WE WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. SIGNALS OF A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA SOUTHEASTWARD ARE STILL APPARENT VERY LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH
REMAIN JUST OUT OF OUR AREA. STILL...THIS MAY LEAD TO AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OR AN INCREASE IN EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WESTWARD LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. LITTLE
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
PROSPECTS CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO IMPACT
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING
PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MID TO UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CANADA. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OWING TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT/S LOW LEVEL
JET USHERING RICHER GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX EAST SOMEWHERE IN VICINITY OF THE
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK DURING PEAK HEATING. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CREATING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HELICITY
ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERFACE. INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND LOOKS TO BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE
TIMING OF THIS PERTURBATION WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SYNOPTIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT...PERHAPS COUPLING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET. LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR WILL RECEIVE A
BOOST HEADING INTO THE EVENING AS A 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AND LENGTHENS ALREADY CURVED HODOGRAPHS.

BELIEVE INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE DRYLINE AND
BACKDOOR FRONT MEET BY MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWEST IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT AND RETREATING DRYLINE INTO THE EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THREATS AREAWIDE...WHILE
A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST BASED ON WHERE
HELICITY/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ARE ENHANCED DUE TO BACKED WINDS ALONG
THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE INCH TO INCH AND A HALF
RANGE WILL ALSO PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE RETREATING FRIDAY BY ENTERING NEW MEXICO
THANKS TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND LEE
TROUGHING NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL FAVOR WESTERN ZONES IN
TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
DRYLINE PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR INITIATION. AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO MIGRATE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
THE DRYLINE TO BEGIN MIXING FARTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTH/ROLLING
PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AFTER SUNDAY AS PROGRESSION OF
THIS SYSTEM AND DRYLINE PLACEMENT WILL DICTATE STORM CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
UNDERNEATH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        87  57  86  59  82 /   0  10  20  30  30
TULIA         88  59  86  62  83 /   0  10  40  40  20
PLAINVIEW     89  61  87  64  84 /   0  10  30  40  20
LEVELLAND     90  63  89  64  84 /   0  10  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       90  65  90  66  86 /   0  10  20  40  20
DENVER CITY   90  64  93  65  85 /   0  10  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    92  65  90  65  86 /   0  10  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     91  63  88  65  85 /  10  10  60  60  20
SPUR          91  63  90  67  88 /  10  10  30  50  20
ASPERMONT     93  67  92  69  91 /  10  10  20  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05

000
FXUS64 KCRP 221141 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF A PORT LAVACA TO
LAREDO LINE AT 11Z. IFR CEILINGS ARE PREVALENT OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED. MVFR CEILINGS ARE HOLDING
OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY EXCEPT AROUND COT WHERE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR HAS MOVED IN AND CEILINGS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE 3 KFT. EXPECT
IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z THEN MVFR CIGS
WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT OF THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDS. THE
LOW CLOUDS/LOW END MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE COASTAL PLAINS
BY 02Z-03Z...WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY 08Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED
INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR A PORT LAVACA TO ENCINAL
LINE AT 09Z. LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS PRESSURE FALLS BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
THIS MORNING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 85H
ELEVATED ABOVE THE SHALLOW FRONT...ALONG WITH THE TAIL END OF THE
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EAST TEXAS...PROVIDES
LIFT OVER THIS AREA TO OVER CAP. BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
DIFFUSE BY THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. PERSISTENT AREA OF HAZE/SMOKE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL LEAD TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY MAINTAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT/FRI. HOWEVER...MODELS
PROG A SHORT WAVE TO ROUND THE TOP PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL
DRAW MOISTURE N...MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. PWAT`S ARE PROGD TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE W CWA...BUT MOISTURE STILL
LOOKS TOO LIMITED AND A MARGINAL CAP IS PROGD TO BE IN PLACE SO WILL
NOT MENTION PRECIP JUST YET FOR FRI. THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR
THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL AS A SECOND WEAKER SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SILENT 10 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
CWA...BUT DO HAVE 10 POPS STRETCHING TO THE NE CWA FRI EVENING AS
THE FIRST UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAY
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE UPPER SHORT WAVE AND
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS S TX
SUNDAY/MON AS AN UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE PAC NW...LEADING TO A
WARMING TREND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS FOR WINDS...WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE MODELS WHICH WAS A FEW KNOTS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCSTD...MAINLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS ACROSS THE
MARINE ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  75  90  75  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          89  72  90  74  89  /  20  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            99  77 100  76  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             93  73  94  75  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          87  76  88  75  82  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           95  73  97  74  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  74  92  75  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  76  85  75  84  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION

000
FXUS64 KBRO 221131 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF IFR TO CONTINUE
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH AROUND
MID MORNING. LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MIXING OUT/LIFT BETWEEN
14 AND 16Z. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RESTRICTED TO AROUND 4 MILES IN
SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT HAZE FROM AGRICULTURAL BURNS
IN YUCATAN MEXICO. SOME OF THIS HAZE TO MIX WITH SOME VSBY TO
IMPROVE TODAY. SOUTHEAST WIND TO BE LIGHTER TODAY WITH MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS...GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 3Z THURSDAY BUT COULD DEVELOP
CLOSER TO 06Z IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE 500MB RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST. TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT PREVAILS. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST TO
THE UPPER 90S WEST UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AGRICULTURAL FIRES
OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF YUCATAN WILL PROVIDE AREAS OF SMOKE/HAZE
ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST TODAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WAS INHERITED FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...
AND THAT TREND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. BROAD
500 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND EXTENDED OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...PRODUCING THE ANTICIPATED DRY WEATHER
WITH NEAR NORMAL VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BRO CWFA.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...CURRENTLY BUOY020 REPORTS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 14 KNOTS AND SEAS
AROUND 4 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MAY OCCUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
POSSIBLE...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  88  76  90  78 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          91  76  91  76 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            92  75  93  76 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              95  76  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      98  75  98  79 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  76  88  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/64

000
FXUS64 KSJT 221128 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
628 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS /WITH MVFR BASES AND CEILINGS/ WILL
DEVELOP NORTH INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. CARRYING
SCATTERED TO BROKEN TEMPO CLOUD GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KABI...DURING THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
9-12 KT TODAY. MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KT ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...
AFTER HAVING THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO EAST TEXAS AND A LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM 89-94 DEGREES ACROSS OUR AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL TONIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY...CENTERED VERY NEAR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL RETURN...BRINGING A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS TO THE AREA. THIS FLOW WILL BE AN UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WEST TEXAS...AND CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
OUT THERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MEAN WIND IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KTS WILL HELP KEEP SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
GOING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND MAY ALLOW IT TO REACH
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

MORE OF THE SAME FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING FARTHER EAST...THIS WILL ALLOW A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO REACH MORE OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES CLIMB OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WITHOUT ANY
REAL HELP FROM ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...CAP MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION FROM FORMING. THUS...A DRY AND
WARMER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  90  69  94  70  89 /   5  10  10  20  20
SAN ANGELO  94  70  95  69  90 /   5   5  10  20  10
JUNCTION  93  70  92  69  87 /   5   0   0  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KEWX 221126
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...
A BAND OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INCLUDING
KDRT WHILE VFR FEW-SCT STRATUS PREVAILS NORTH OF KUVA TO KPEZ TO
K3T5 LINE AND SCT-BKN STRATUS PREVAILS SOUTH OF LINE. EXPECT
IFR/LIFR VSBYS EAST OF A KILE TO KT35 TO K11R LINE AND IFR/LIFR
CIGS SOUTHEAST OF A K11R TO KCOT LINE TO REMAIN JUST EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. VFR SKIES WILL RETURN TO THE RIO
GRANDE BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN MIX OUT BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS WILL BECOME S TO SE AT 5
TO 12 KTS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
EARLY THIS MORNING THE WEAK FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM
EAGLE PASS TO THREE RIVERS TO EAGLE LAKE. CONVECTION WAS STILL
FIRING ON THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE MESO-HIGH
LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL WEAKEN TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 90S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. LOW CLOUDS WILL ROLL IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A TYPICAL MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH MORNING LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL START OUT CLOUDY BUT THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO MID/LATE JUNE NORMALS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A NORTH/SOUTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL BE LOCATED OVER
TEXAS ON FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION THRU
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
IS A DRY SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SO NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE A PERSISTENT S TO SE LOW LEVEL FETCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THUS THE FAMILIAR LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER PATTERN OF
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IS TRENDING TOWARDS CLIMO.
HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON OUR
BIAS-CORRECTED DATABASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  71  94  72  93 /   0   0   0  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  90  69  92  70  91 /   0   0   0  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     91  70  93  71  92 /   0   0   0  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            88  68  91  70  89 /   0   0   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           96  74  97  73  94 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  69  91  71  89 /   0   0   0  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             93  71  96  72  93 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  70  92  71  91 /   0   0   0  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  72  91  73  91 /  -    0   0  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  73  93  74  92 /   0   0   0  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  72  93  72  91 /   0   0   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13

000
FXUS64 KAMA 221124 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
624 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS A LOW LEVEL JET
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 03Z...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...THINK THIS IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 10 AND 15KT...AND THE MAX WIND SPEED IN THE JET
IS EXPECTED TO BE 40KT...THUS SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

JOHNSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND THE ECMWF INDICATING THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES REMAINING DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THEN BREAKING DOWN OR
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY LATE THURSDAY. UPPER FLOW
THEN TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD BY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND ALLOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLES WHICH BECOMES
STATIONARY. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A DRYLINE SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTH AND WESTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.

AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THE UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN LOW CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY FOG WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
MUCH OF THE MORNING LATE THIS WEEK. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING CAN OCCUR WHICH SHOULD
TAKE PLACE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL LOWER CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY FOR NOW WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE THIS WEEKEND. AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS THE PANHANDLES TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE
ON SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN A LATER TIMING FOR ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW.
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE DRYLINE HANGING BACK TO THE WEST IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
DRYLINE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE PANHANDLES AND AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUING TO PREVAIL...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 TO 20
MPH OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 TO 20
PERCENT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/11

000
FXUS64 KHGX 221101
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
601 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION...FOR THE MOST PART HAS WANED OR PUSHED EAST OF SE TX
EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PULLED UP
STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST AND FEEL THIS FEATURE COULD BE A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA LATER TODAY. ADDED VCSH FOR KLBX AND KGLS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ELSEWHERE...LIFR CIGS WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT TO VFR. THE
HOUSTON TAF SITES ARE NORTH OF THE CONVECTION AND SOUTH OF THE
LIFR CIGS BUT LIFR CIGS COULD STILL IMPINGE ON KIAH BEFORE
SUNRISE. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUING
OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. OUTFLOW PUSHED SOUTH WITH STORM EARLIER
THIS MORNING AND NOW STORMS CATCHING BACK UP WITH THE BOUNDARY AND
WILL POSE A SEVERE THREAT (WIND) FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS IT
MOVES OUT OF LIBERTY AND POSSIBLY CHAMBERS COUNTIES. SOME
POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOME BACKBUILDING DOWN THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR HEAVY RAINS PERHAPS AS FAR BACK AS SOUTHEAST
HARRIS COUNTY. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY
SOUTH AND MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND ANY THAT DO FORM WILL BE SLOW MOVERS.

BEYOND TODAY FEW CHANGES NOTED TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE. ONSHORE FLOW
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS AND DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE S/W MOVES OUT
INTO GULF AND THEN RECIRCULATES. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASING AS
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ON FRIDAY AROUND CROCKETT AND GROVETON AREAS
IN THE MORNING THEN WESTWARD DURING THE DAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES ONLY 20 PERCENT THOUGH AS CAP MAY BE TO STRONG.
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
45

MARINE...
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY KEEPING LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS IN PLACE. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS
SAT NITE INTO SUNDAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  72  91  71  90 /  10  10   0  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  72  90  72  90 /  30  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  75  81  74  82 /  40   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...43

000
FXUS64 KFWD 221050
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
550 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE EXITING STRATUS
DECK OVER EASTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE 11-3.9 MICRON SAT IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE FOG IS ATTEMPTING TO WORK SLOWLY WEST...SO
THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT THE METRO-AREA TERMINALS MAY
EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES BETWEEN NOW AND
15Z. IT IS CURRENTLY VFR...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A MVFR VISIBILITY
FORECAST THROUGH 15Z AT DAL AND DFW BASED MAINLY ON SATELLITE
TRENDS. MEANWHILE WACO HAS ALREADY BEEN WAFFLING BETWEEN 4SM AND
A QUARTER OF A MILE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO 1/2SM FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE
KACT TAF. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KTS WITH IMPROVING VISIBILITIES LATER THIS
MORNING.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND NOW FOG IS FORMING
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. A FEW AREAS WILL SEE DENSE FOG...AND IT
SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING
LOCATED FROM THE BIG BEND NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST OVER OUR AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND AIDED BY AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE DRY LINE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD ADVECT EAST INTO THE AREA. I HAVE KEPT LOW POPS
FOR THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOT OF THE CONVECTIVE
EXTENT DEPENDS ON JUST HOW STRONG OF A SHORT WAVE WILL ACTUALLY
SUPPORT THE EVENT.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...AND ALTHOUGH THE GFS DEVELOPS SPOTTY PRECIPITATION MOST
DAYS...THE POPS ARE QUITE LOW AND THE ECMWF SEEMS DRIER. HAVE GONE
WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH IF LATER RUNS BECOME WETTER
POPS WILL HAVE TO INCREASE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH THE
FLOW TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND HUMIDITY INCREASING AS
WELL. AFTER THE LAST WEEK/S EVENTS...ALL IN ALL A FAIRLY BORING
FORECAST. 84

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  64  89  70  85 /  10  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              87  67  90  71  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             82  63  85  69  81 /  10  10  10  10  20
DENTON, TX            84  64  87  70  84 /   5  10  10  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          85  64  88  71  85 /  10  10  10  10  20
DALLAS, TX            88  65  91  71  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           86  66  90  72  86 /  10  10  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         86  67  91  71  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            86  68  90  71  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  65  91  70  87 /   5  10  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/84

000
FXUS64 KHGX 220957
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
457 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUING
OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. OUTFLOW PUSHED SOUTH WITH STORM EARLIER
THIS MORNING AND NOW STORMS CATCHING BACK UP WITH THE BOUNDARY AND
WILL POSE A SEVERE THREAT (WIND) FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS IT
MOVES OUT OF LIBERTY AND POSSIBLY CHAMBERS COUNTIES. SOME
POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOME BACKBUILDING DOWN THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR HEAVY RAINS PERHAPS AS FAR BACK AS SOUTHEAST
HARRIS COUNTY. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY
SOUTH AND MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND ANY THAT DO FORM WILL BE SLOW MOVERS.

BEYOND TODAY FEW CHANGES NOTED TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE. ONSHORE FLOW
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS AND DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE S/W MOVES OUT
INTO GULF AND THEN RECIRCULATES. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASING AS
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ON FRIDAY AROUND CROCKETT AND GROVETON AREAS
IN THE MORNING THEN WESTWARD DURING THE DAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES ONLY 20 PERCENT THOUGH AS CAP MAY BE TO STRONG.
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
45

&&

.MARINE...
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY KEEPING LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS IN PLACE. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS
SAT NITE INTO SUNDAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  72  91  71  90 /  10  10   0  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  72  90  72  90 /  30  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  75  81  74  82 /  40   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45

000
FXUS64 KLUB 220954
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
453 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PULLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WAVE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BREECH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING
BUT SHOULD ENCOUNTER SUBSTANTIAL RESISTANCE TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST RECENT WRF/NAM SOLUTION HAS COME MUCH MORE
INTO LINE WITH THE GFS BUILDING A SUBSIDENCE CAPPING INVERSION
BETWEEN ABOUT 500 MB AND 600 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. AS THE WAVE PULLS THROUGH DURING THE EVENING WITH A 55KT
JET MAXIMUM AT H300 MB ACROSS THE AREA...A LOW LEVEL JET ALSO WILL
START TO DEVELOP ASSISTING IN PULLING MUCH BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER GIVEN THE TREND
TOWARDS MORE CAPPING WE WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. SIGNALS OF A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA SOUTHEASTWARD ARE STILL APPARENT VERY LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH
REMAIN JUST OUT OF OUR AREA. STILL...THIS MAY LEAD TO AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OR AN INCREASE IN EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WESTWARD LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. LITTLE
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
PROSPECTS CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO IMPACT
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING
PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MID TO UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CANADA. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OWING TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT/S LOW LEVEL
JET USHERING RICHER GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX EAST SOMEWHERE IN VICINITY OF THE
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK DURING PEAK HEATING. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CREATING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HELICITY
ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERFACE. INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND LOOKS TO BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE
TIMING OF THIS PERTURBATION WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SYNOPTIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT...PERHAPS COUPLING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET. LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR WILL RECEIVE A
BOOST HEADING INTO THE EVENING AS A 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AND LENGTHENS ALREADY CURVED HODOGRAPHS.

BELIEVE INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE DRYLINE AND
BACKDOOR FRONT MEET BY MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWEST IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT AND RETREATING DRYLINE INTO THE EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THREATS AREAWIDE...WHILE
A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST BASED ON WHERE
HELICITY/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ARE ENHANCED DUE TO BACKED WINDS ALONG
THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE INCH TO INCH AND A HALF
RANGE WILL ALSO PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE RETREATING FRIDAY BY ENTERING NEW MEXICO
THANKS TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND LEE
TROUGHING NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL FAVOR WESTERN ZONES IN
TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
DRYLINE PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR INITIATION. AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO MIGRATE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
THE DRYLINE TO BEGIN MIXING FARTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTH/ROLLING
PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AFTER SUNDAY AS PROGRESSION OF
THIS SYSTEM AND DRYLINE PLACEMENT WILL DICTATE STORM CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
UNDERNEATH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        87  57  86  59  82 /   0  10  20  30  30
TULIA         88  59  86  62  83 /   0  10  40  40  20
PLAINVIEW     89  61  87  64  84 /   0  10  30  40  20
LEVELLAND     90  63  89  64  84 /   0  10  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       90  64  89  66  86 /   0  10  20  40  20
DENVER CITY   90  64  93  65  85 /   0  10  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    92  65  90  65  86 /   0  10  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     91  63  88  65  85 /  10  10  60  60  20
SPUR          91  63  90  67  88 /  10  10  30  50  20
ASPERMONT     93  67  92  69  91 /  10  10  20  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/31

000
FXUS64 KMAF 220943
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
443 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN TERMINALS...W/BASES 8-9
KFT AGL. OTHERWISE...RETURN FLOW CONTINUES...W/A 40+KT LLJ
MAINTAINING WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE QUIET DAY TODAY BEFORE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER SETS IN
ACROSS W TX AND SE NM. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TODAY AS THE PESKY UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FINALLY BEGINS
TO MOVE EAST. WARMING 850 MB TEMPS (~28C) SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO
REACH THE 90S TO NEAR 100 MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE
AREA. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK KEEPING
THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LOW. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS PWATS INCREASE TO ~1.3 INCHES OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA (NEARLY +2SD FOR LATE MAY). INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE DRYLINE. AT
THIS TIME, THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY LOOKS HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
TO NEAR 100 WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY MORE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

000
FXUS64 KMAF 220934
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
434 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE QUIET DAY TODAY BEFORE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER SETS IN
ACROSS W TX AND SE NM. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TODAY AS THE PESKY UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FINALLY BEGINS
TO MOVE EAST. WARMING 850 MB TEMPS (~28C) SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO
REACH THE 90S TO NEAR 100 MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE
AREA. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK KEEPING
THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LOW. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS PWATS INCREASE TO ~1.3 INCHES OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA (NEARLY +2SD FOR LATE MAY). INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE DRYLINE. AT
THIS TIME, THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY LOOKS HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
TO NEAR 100 WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY MORE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 94  71  94  68  /   0   0  20  30
BIG SPRING TX              95  71  95  69  /   0   0  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                97  63  99  67  /   0   0  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  95  74  95  73  /   0   0  10  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           96  72  96  69  /   0   0  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          92  67  89  63  /   0   0  20  20
HOBBS NM                   92  65  94  65  /   0   0  20  20
MARFA TX                   91  54  87  59  /   0   0  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    95  72  94  69  /   0   0  20  30
ODESSA TX                  95  73  94  70  /   0   0  20  30
WINK TX                    99  71  99  72  /   0   0  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/29

000
FXUS64 KBRO 220930
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
430 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE 500MB RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST. TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT PREVAILS. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST TO
THE UPPER 90S WEST UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AGRICULTURAL FIRES
OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF YUCATAN WILL PROVIDE AREAS OF SMOKE/HAZE
ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST TODAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WAS INHERITED FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...
AND THAT TREND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. BROAD
500 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND EXTENDED OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...PRODUCING THE ANTICIPATED DRY WEATHER
WITH NEAR NORMAL VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BRO CWFA.
&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...CURRENTLY BUOY020 REPORTS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 14 KNOTS AND SEAS
AROUND 4 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MAY OCCUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
POSSIBLE...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  88  76  90  78 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          91  76  91  76 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            92  75  93  76 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              95  76  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      98  75  98  79 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  76  88  78 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...CACERES-63
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
FXC/MESO...CAMPBELL

000
FXUS64 KCRP 220929
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
429 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED
INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR A PORT LAVACA TO ENCINAL
LINE AT 09Z. LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS PRESSURE FALLS BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
THIS MORNING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 85H
ELEVATED ABOVE THE SHALLOW FRONT...ALONG WITH THE TAIL END OF THE
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EAST TEXAS...PROVIDES
LIFT OVER THIS AREA TO OVER CAP. BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
DIFFUSE BY THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. PERSISTENT AREA OF HAZE/SMOKE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL LEAD TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY MAINTAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT/FRI. HOWEVER...MODELS
PROG A SHORT WAVE TO ROUND THE TOP PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL
DRAW MOISTURE N...MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. PWAT`S ARE PROGD TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE W CWA...BUT MOISTURE STILL
LOOKS TOO LIMITED AND A MARGINAL CAP IS PROGD TO BE IN PLACE SO WILL
NOT MENTION PRECIP JUST YET FOR FRI. THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR
THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL AS A SECOND WEAKER SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SILENT 10 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
CWA...BUT DO HAVE 10 POPS STRETCHING TO THE NE CWA FRI EVENING AS
THE FIRST UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAY
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE UPPER SHORT WAVE AND
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS S TX
SUNDAY/MON AS AN UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE PAC NW...LEADING TO A
WARMING TREND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS FOR WINDS...WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE MODELS WHICH WAS A FEW KNOTS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCSTD...MAINLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS ACROSS THE
MARINE ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  75  90  75  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          89  72  90  74  89  /  20  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            99  77 100  76  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             93  73  94  75  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          87  76  88  75  82  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           95  73  97  74  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  74  92  75  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  76  85  75  84  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM

000
FXUS64 KAMA 220903
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
403 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND THE ECMWF INDICATING THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES REMAINING DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THEN BREAKING DOWN OR
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY LATE THURSDAY. UPPER FLOW
THEN TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD BY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND ALLOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLES WHICH BECOMES
STATIONARY. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A DRYLINE SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTH AND WESTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.

AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THE UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN LOW CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY FOG WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
MUCH OF THE MORNING LATE THIS WEEK. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING CAN OCCUR WHICH SHOULD
TAKE PLACE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL LOWER CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY FOR NOW WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE THIS WEEKEND. AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS THE PANHANDLES TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE
ON SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN A LATER TIMING FOR ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW.
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE DRYLINE HANGING BACK TO THE WEST IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
DRYLINE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE PANHANDLES AND AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUING TO PREVAIL...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 TO 20
MPH OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 TO 20
PERCENT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                87  58  86  60  82 /   5  10  30  30  20
BEAVER OK                  85  52  76  59  83 /   5  10  40  40  20
BOISE CITY OK              86  50  77  56  82 /  10  10  30  30  20
BORGER TX                  89  60  84  61  83 /   5  10  30  40  20
BOYS RANCH TX              90  57  85  62  85 /   5  10  20  30  20
CANYON TX                  87  57  87  60  82 /   5  10  30  30  20
CLARENDON TX               88  61  84  64  84 /   5  10  30  40  20
DALHART TX                 89  52  83  58  84 /   5  10  30  30  20
GUYMON OK                  86  53  77  58  83 /   5  10  40  40  20
HEREFORD TX                88  58  88  59  83 /   5  10  20  30  20
LIPSCOMB TX                84  54  81  60  81 /   5  10  40  40  20
PAMPA TX                   84  58  83  60  80 /   5  10  40  40  20
SHAMROCK TX                85  57  84  62  83 /   5  10  30  40  20
WELLINGTON TX              90  60  85  65  85 /   5  10  30  40  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/11

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 220853
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
253 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN UNDER A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
WARMER AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY. SUFFICIENT
GULF MOISTURE WILL PRESS WESTWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TO ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER OTERO AND
HUDSPETH COUNTIES...AND MAYBE EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION STAYS WARM AND DRY.
OTHERWISE WARM DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE BORDERLAND WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TWO WORDS FOR TODAY`S WEATHER...WARM/DRY. WEAK UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORMS TO OUR
WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AFTERNOON WINDS JUST BELOW BREEZY
CRITERIA. A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE...BUT OTHERWISE
GENERALLY SUNNY AND WARM TODAY. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FOR
THURSDAY... BUT SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THUS MID
90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS.
CONTINUED VERY DRY...MEANING WILDFIRE CONCERNS ELEVATE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO SHIFT WEST A BIT ALLOWING FOR GULF
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO FAR WEST TEXAS ON SE FLOW ACROSS TX. THIS
MAY BRING THE ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF
HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. IF SO...INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EASTERN CWFA. HOWEVER WE EXPECT MOST
STORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVE AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE DRY LINE IS PROGED TO BE FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED OVER OUR EASTERN CWFA...EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DRYLINE
PLACEMENT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO DRIFT WEST INTO THE TULAROSA BASIN
AND POSSIBLY THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DURING THE AFTERNOONS THE
MOISTURE LOOKS TO SHIFT BACK EAST A BIT WITH DAYTIME MIXING. THUS
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OTERO AND HUDSPETH...AND ONLY
EASTERN EL PASO COUNTIES FOR THESE TWO AFTERNOONS/EVENING. FOR ALL
OTHER ZONES TO THE WEST IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY AND WARM WITH
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST
A BIT. THIS NUDGES THE SURFACE TROUGH BACK TO THE NM/TX STATE LINE
AND EFFECTIVELY ENDS OUR EAST ZONE PCPN CHANCES AS THE DRY LINE
EXITS THE REGION TO OUR EAST. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE
THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE UNDER DEEP...DRY...WARM...BREEZY/WINDY
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE WITH THIS
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RELUCTANTLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH VARIABLE WINDS
DOMINATING OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE 18-24 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...DRY LIGHTNING RISK INCREASING FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND OVER
EASTERN AREAS ONLY...

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BACK
TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL TODAY AS SW FLOW RESUMES.
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH WESTWARDS
INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION RESULTING IN SOME THUNDER- STORM
ACTIVITY TO OUR IMMEDIATE EAST THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT
IN OUTFLOW WHICH WILL FURTHER PUSH THE MOISTURE AND DRYLINE
BOUNDARY WESTWARDS AND REACHING THE RIO GRANDE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT AND THE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT EAST TO EAST
SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTOS/GUADALUPES IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
AND FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE SLIGHTLY BREEZY AND DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. BEING ON THE
MARGINAL WESTWARD FRINGES OF THE MOISTURE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
OTERO MESA AND HUDSPETH COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 93  69  95  70  95 /   0   0  10  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA           91  62  93  66  92 /   0   0  10  20  20
LAS CRUCES              91  58  93  61  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              90  58  93  61  93 /   0   0  10  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              68  45  69  49  71 /   0   0  10  10  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   91  61  92  64  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             88  55  87  55  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  91  56  93  57  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               91  57  93  57  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      92  66  93  68  94 /   0   0   0  10  10
DELL CITY               91  57  93  60  94 /   0   0  10  20  30
FORT HANCOCK            95  64  94  68  97 /   0   0  10  10  10
LOMA LINDA              87  57  86  59  88 /   0   0  10  10  10
FABENS                  93  66  94  67  95 /   0   0  10  10  10
SANTA TERESA            93  60  95  63  94 /   0   0   0  10   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          91  67  92  69  92 /   0   0   0  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           91  49  94  52  92 /   0   0   0  10   0
HATCH                   88  59  90  61  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                91  61  94  62  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               94  57  96  61  95 /   0   0  10  10  10
MAYHILL                 80  53  80  57  80 /   0   0  10  20  30
MESCALERO               79  45  82  48  83 /   0   0  10  10  20
TIMBERON                78  44  80  49  81 /   0   0  10  10  20
WINSTON                 81  48  83  49  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               86  56  88  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               90  56  92  57  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            83  49  84  49  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  86  59  87  58  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   92  51  92  52  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              88  42  89  42  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 85  58  88  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  91  57  93  59  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 90  56  92  56  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          92  60  93  60  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              86  55  88  55  90 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD

000
FXUS64 KSJT 220845
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
345 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...
AFTER HAVING THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO EAST TEXAS AND A LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM 89-94 DEGREES ACROSS OUR AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL TONIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY...CENTERED VERY NEAR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL RETURN...BRINGING A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS TO THE AREA. THIS FLOW WILL BE AN UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WEST TEXAS...AND CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
OUT THERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MEAN WIND IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KTS WILL HELP KEEP SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
GOING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND MAY ALLOW IT TO REACH
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

MORE OF THE SAME FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING FARTHER EAST...THIS WILL ALLOW A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO REACH MORE OF THE AREA.

.SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES CLIMB OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WITHOUT ANY
REAL HELP FROM ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...CAP MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION FROM FORMING. THUS...A DRY AND
WARMER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  90  69  94  70  89 /   5  10  10  20  20
SAN ANGELO  94  70  95  69  90 /   5   5  10  20  10
JUNCTION  93  70  92  69  87 /   5   0   0  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/07/07

000
FXUS64 KEWX 220814
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
314 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
EARLY THIS MORNING THE WEAK FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM
EAGLE PASS TO THREE RIVERS TO EAGLE LAKE. CONVECTION WAS STILL
FIRING ON THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE MESO-HIGH
LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL WEAKEN TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 90S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. LOW CLOUDS WILL ROLL IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A TYPICAL MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH MORNING LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL START OUT CLOUDY BUT THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO MID/LATE JUNE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A NORTH/SOUTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL BE LOCATED OVER
TEXAS ON FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION THRU
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
IS A DRY SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SO NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE A PERSISTENT S TO SE LOW LEVEL FETCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THUS THE FAMILIAR LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER PATTERN OF
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IS TRENDING TOWARDS CLIMO.
HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON OUR
BIAS-CORRECTED DATABASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  71  94  72  93 /   0   0   0  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  90  69  92  70  91 /   0   0   0  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     91  70  93  71  92 /   0   0   0  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            88  68  91  70  89 /   0   0   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           96  74  97  73  94 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  69  91  71  89 /   0   0   0  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             93  71  96  72  93 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  70  92  71  91 /   0   0   0  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  72  91  73  91 /  -    0   0  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  73  93  74  92 /   0   0   0  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  72  93  72  91 /   0   0   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13

000
FXUS64 KFWD 220802
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
302 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND NOW FOG IS FORMING
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. A FEW AREAS WILL SEE DENSE FOG...AND IT
SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO TTEXAS THURSDAY MORNING
LOCATED FROM THE BIG BEND NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST OVER OUR AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND AIDED BY AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE DRY LINE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD ADVECT EAST INTO THE AREA. I HAVE KEPT LOW POPS
FOR THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOT OF THE CONVECTIVE
EXTENT DEPENDS ON JUST HOW STRONG OF A SHORT WAVE WILL ACTUALLY
SUPPORT THE EVENT.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...AND ALTHOUGH THE GFS DEVELOPS SPOTTY PRECIPITATION MOST
DAYS...THE POPS ARE QUITE LOW AND THE ECMWF SEEMS DRIER. HAVE GONE
WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH IF LATER RUNS BECOME WETTER
POPS WILL HAVE TO INCREASE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH THE
FLOW TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND HUMIDITY INCREASING AS
WELL. AFTER THE LAST WEEK/S EVENTS...ALL IN ALL A FAIRLY BORING
FORECAST. 84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  64  89  70  85 /  10  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              87  67  90  71  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             82  63  85  69  81 /  10  10  10  10  20
DENTON, TX            84  64  87  70  84 /   5  10  10  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          85  64  88  71  85 /  10  10  10  10  20
DALLAS, TX            88  65  91  71  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           86  66  90  72  86 /  10  10  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         86  67  91  71  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            86  68  90  71  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  65  91  70  87 /   5  10  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /

000
FXUS64 KHGX 220718
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
218 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE...HAVE LET THE WATCH EXPIRE AND HAVE RAISED POPS IN
THE EAST ZONES AROUND LIBERTY. MAY HAVE SOME SPOTTY BRIEF HEAVY
RAINS IF ANY REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE SLOWING BOUNDARY
THROUGH SUNRISE.
45


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  72  91  71  90 /  10  10   0  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  72  90  72  90 /  20  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  75  81  74  82 /  40   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45