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000
FXUS61 KBTV 250554
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
154 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 111 AM EDT SATURDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO FRESH UP THE
POPS...TEMPS...AND WINDS WITH CRNT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS. WINTER
HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING WITH WHITEFACE
REPORTING A CRNT TEMP OF 16F AND A WIND CHILL OF -8F.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH. CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER TRRN OF NORTHERN NY/VT AND WILL
CONT TO MENTION CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS. A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL ONLY DROP ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO...GIVEN WINDS AND CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 403 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE MOISTURE
ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY...SO
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE WARMER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
(MAINLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS). MOS GUIDANCE
AGAIN LOOKS TOO WARM FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.
THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES BUT INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KSLK AND KMPV.
STAGNANT UPPER LOW AND WRAP-AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE LEADING TO
PERSISTENT OVC CEILINGS AROUND 4-5KFT AT THE TERMINALS WITH ENOUGH
DEEP MOISTURE AT TIMES FOR ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/-SHRA IN MOUNTAIN
LOCALES OF NRN NY/VT.
ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDS AROUND 15Z SATURDAY AS
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE SHRINKS A BIT. NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LOCONTO/SLW

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