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000
FXUS61 KBTV 171809
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
209 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area today will bring dry weather to the
area with high temperatures in the 70s to around 80. A warm
front will approach the region later tonight from the southwest
and enhance the potential for showers and a few thunderstorms
across the area...especially over northern New York. Showers and
a few thunderstorms will exist over the entire area from time
to time...with the potential for some stronger storms over
northern New York late in the day on Friday. Showers and storms
will taper off Friday night...but scattered showers will exist
over the area on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 205 PM EDT Thursday...No changes to the near term
forecast with this update. Filtered sunlight warming afternoon
temps into the 70s with light wind.
500 mb ridging passes across the region today in overall
westerly upper level flow. Upper level low moving across the
great lakes to the west is spilling some cirrus over the ridge.
Surface ridge remains in place for today to provide light wind
and dry conditions.
For tonight...surface ridge shifts east, allowing a warm front
to lift northeast into the region mainly after midnight. Nose of
warm and noticeably more moist air to push into mainly the New
York side of the forecast area. Surface dewpoints in the 50s to
be replaced by 60s dewpoints. Warm air advection at 850
mb...showers should be likely with the front. Sharp gradient of
Showalter Index values moves into northern New York after
midnight and this will enhance the potential for elevated
convection.
Overnight lows will see an early drop, then start to rise around
midnight in northern NY and early morning hours in the Champlain
Valley. Green Mountains and eastward will experience normal
diurnal trend in temps.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 pm EDT Thursday...The region will spend some period
of time Friday in dry slot behind the warm front, then showers
and thunderstorms possible Friday as atmosphere destabilizes.
Shortwave ridging at 500 mb shifts east, and by mid day Friday
upper flow becomes difluent ahead of approaching shortwave
trough moving through the Great Lakes Region. Warm moist airmass
remains in place through the period with dewpoints remaining
well into the 60s. Highs Friday in the 70s to near 80, and lows
Friday night hold in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 503 AM EDT Thursday...Mainly dry weather is expected from
Saturday night through Tuesday morning. Cold air advection
continues Saturday night behind departing surface cold front
that crossed the area Friday night. Ridge of surface high
pressure centered over Ohio river valley will build into our
region and remain through early Tuesday. An upper level trough
will push across our forecast area Saturday night and Sunday.
Looks like good eclipse viewing weather for Monday afternoon.
Southwest flow will develop Tuesday as surface ridge moves East
of the region, this flow will also advect some much warmer air
into the North Country. A low pressure system will pass from the
Northern Great Lakes area on Tuesday Northeastward into Central
Quebec on Wednesday. Best chance for rain showers will be
Tuesday night into Wednesday with surface cold frontal passage.
Upper level trough will lag behind a bit, crossing our area
Thursday night into Friday. Overall the work week looks
unsettled.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...VFR for the first 12 to 18 hours of the TAF
period with high pressure in place. Showrs along approaching
warm front lower cigs and vis to MVFR after 06z northern NY,
12-15 UTC in Champlain Valley and Vermont. Light variable winds
today/this evening become southerly with warm frontal passage.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Hanson
SHORT TERM...Hanson
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Hanson


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