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000
FXUS61 KBTV 231131
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
731 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate regional weather conditions through
Tuesday with fair weather and a long awaited return of warmer
temperatures. The next chance of rainfall occurs by Wednesday
into Thursday of next week as low pressure tracks through the
northeast.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 729 AM EDT Monday...Expect another beautiful day across
the North Country as high pressure starts to drift east. With
warm air advection pushing in due to light southerly flow,
anticipate above normal temperatures this afternoon. I`ve got
highs in the mid to upper 60s in the valleys with low 60s in the
higher terrain. That will feel wonderful under mostly sunny
skies especially given how cold it`s been over the past couple
of weeks. The main forecast challenge will be how low RH`s drop.
Based on yesterday`s 00z ALY sounding we mixed to 740mb! So I
used local mixing height dewpoint tools to mix down dew points
from about 750mb to the surface and blended those results with
mos guidance. The results is minimum relative humidities in the
14-18% range this afternoon.
The dry air mass will lead to somewhat large diurnal spreads as
this evening the high continues to drift towards the east. The
warm air advection aloft however will mean that we wont fall
nearly as cold as the previous couple of nights. We should see
another evening with light winds except for the southeasterly
gap winds across western Rutland county. This amounts to lows in
the mid to upper 30s to even low 40s in the Champlain and Saint
Lawrence valleys.
Tuesday warm air advection continues in earnest with clouds
increasing through the afternoon as a northern stream low
pressure system will begin to phase with a southern stream
surface low. Anticipate any precip holding off though until late
Tuesday evening. Expect highs in the upper 60s with a few spot
70`s possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 259 AM EDT Monday...Looks like precipitation may be a bit
slower to move into the area...but it will get here
nevertheless. Looks like after midnight will be the best chance
for precipitation and definitely on Wednesday as shortwave
trough/deeper moisture coming up from the southwest phase with
upstream trough. Idea of categorical precipitation chances for
Wednesday looks real good. Low temperatures Tuesday night will
be in the 40s and highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 40s to
mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 259 AM EDT Monday...Phasing of the two shortwaves takes
place Wednesday night and the resulting upper trough is slow to
move east of the region and this does not take place until later
on Thursday. As a result...can see rain continuing across the
area and have likely to categorical precipitation chances
holding into Thursday. Storm total precipitation amounts
starting from Tuesday night and continuing through Wednesday
night should be in the half to three quarter inch range with
some additional rainfall expected on Thursday. Higher snow
levels should help with snowmelt and runoff and we should see
rises on area waterways. Upper trough exits the area Thursday
night and Friday is trending dry as next upstream trough does
not move in until Friday night into Saturday. Warmer
temperatures aloft will exist on Friday and we should see
temperatures slightly above normal. But as upper trough moves in
for Friday night and Saturday and then moving east on
Sunday...which puts the area in north to northwest flow
aloft...temperatures will generally be below normal for the back
half of the extended. Best chances for precipitation will come
in that Friday night through Saturday time period...with drying
expected for Sunday on the backside of the upper trough.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will persist through the
next 24 hours with mainly SKC expected outside of FEW/SCT cirrus
this afternoon. Calm winds overnight will trend south to
southwest by this morning and continue through the period.

Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
RA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Deal


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