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000
FXUS61 KBTV 240936
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
436 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure area developing off the mid Atlantic coast this
morning will move northeast and be near Cape Cod early tonight.
This low pressure area will then continue into the Canadian
maritimes on Wednesday. This low pressure area will bring
freezing rain, sleet and some snow to the north country today
and tonight.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 434 AM EST Tuesday...Warmer air aloft has moved into the
region early this morning. This has resulted in a more
widespread area of freezing rain and sleet, along with some
pockets of snow early this morning. The NAM12 model seems to
have a good handle on precipitation types across the region this
morning. Expecting a tenth to a quarter inch of ice
accumulation today. Some of the valley areas will see
temperatures climb above freezing this afternoon, especially the
Champlain valley, so will likely see any freezing rain change
to plain rain this afternoon. A difficult commute is in store
across the north country this morning. Expecting a dusting to an
inch of additional snow and sleet accumulation today,
especially in those areas that have not changed over to freezing
rain.
Expecting precipiation to slowly wind down this afternoon and
tonight, but will still a mention of mixed precipitation types
in the forecast.
On Wednesday, expecting mainly dry conditions, except for brief
period of snow showers in the morning, especially across the
northern portion of the forecast area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 243 AM EST Tuesday... Brief break in precip to start off
Wednesday night, but another mid level trough moves across the
Northeast. Generally rain and/or snow will spread from SW to NE
with some areas of sleet and freezing rain possible, mainly for
portions of south central Vermont. Southwest flow aloft may lead
to some enhanced precipitation downwind of Lake Ontario. As the
boundary layer warms on Thursday, precipitation becomes more of
a mix of rain and/or snow. Colder air filters in on NW flow
late Thursday into Thursday night as as the mid level trough
exits east. Upslope snow showers look to linger in the NW flow
Thursday night into early Friday with additional snow amounts
ranging from a dusting to perhaps 2 inches, and locally up to
2-4" across the high peaks.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 243 AM EST Tuesday...Models continue to show broad mid
level trough over the area with several embedded shortwaves
providing chances for snow showers, especially across the higher
terrain through the weekend. Monday will drying conditions as
surface high pressure begins to build in over the Mississippi
Valley with the ridge stretching into the eastern Great Lakes.
Ridge aloft will also be over the eastern Great Lakes shifting
east.
Temperatures throughout the period will be cooler with maxes in
the 20s to low 30 and mins in the teens to low 20s, cooling to
the single digits to mid teens by the end of the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 06z Wednesday..VFR overall to start the period with
KRUT being the exception with MVFR ceilings. Conditions will
deteriorate rapidly to a mix of low MVFR/IFR as wintry precip is
now moving in. Expect a variety of precip types with a mix of
rain/snow/sleet and freezing rain possible. Additionally with
the icing layers just off the surface conditions could be dicey
with icing in the low levels of the atmosphere. An easterly low
level jet is expected to create gusty winds at RUT and also
cause issues with low level turbulence and wind shear due to the
speed differences from the ground to 2500-3000 feet agl. Winds
overall will also be northeasterly at 05-10 knots for most of
the period.
Outlook 06z Wednesday through Saturday...
06z Wednesday - 12z Wednesday: MVFR/IFR trending towards
VFR/MVFR as the wintry precip tapers off Tuesday evening.
12z Wednesday - 12z Thursday: VFR with skies becoming cloudy
late.
12z Thursday onwards: Generally VFR with on and off chances of
MVFR in periods of rain and snow showers.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...Deal/MV


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