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000
FXUS61 KBTV 060830
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FOR A FRIGID
START THIS MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS.
READINGS AT 08Z INCLUDE -27F AT CANAAN VT...-25F AT SARANAC LAKE
NY...AND -6F AT BTV. SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING SLIDES TO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z SAT WHILE MAINTAINING DRY/SUNNY CONDITIONS
TODAY. LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SFC
RIDGE...AND LOCALLY SW 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH MID-LATE AFTN
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH SOME VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW.
OTHERWISE...JUST LOOKING AT CONTINUED CHILLY CONDITIONS WITH
VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 20S. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS GIVEN FULL SUN AND INCREASING MARCH SUN
ANGLE...BUT FORECAST HIGHS STILL 14-18DEG BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE FOR THIS POINT IN MARCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING
MID-UPPER CLOUDS TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH-SW
WINDS (5-10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS)...IT WON/T
BE NEARLY AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. LATER ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...AND THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL SPOTS
NEAR ZERO TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO BEFORE LEVELING OFF DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM/NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD MID
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING BASED ON NAM AND LOCAL BTV MESOSCALE
WRF RUNS, AND PASSAGE OF BEST MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION. CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...OVERALL MOISTURE
IS QUITE LIMITED WITH PW VALUES 0.2-0.25". THUS...ONLY LOOKING AT
A DUSTING TO 2" OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN NY COUNTIES AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF VERMONT (ISOLD 3" AMT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN
SUMMITS). HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY 25-30F.
BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST STRATUS LAYER WILL LIKELY LINGER IN MOST
SECTIONS ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
RELATIVELY QUIET OTHERWISE WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
DESPITE CLOUDS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S
IN MOST VALLEY SECTIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...WORK WEEK STARTS WITH CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVES ACROSS IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, SOME WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO OUR SOUTH AND SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR PRECIP MINIMAL. MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HUDSONS BAY, BUT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL ONLY SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HOWEVER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE COLDER AIR AND NW FLOW.
GENERALLY LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP INFLUX OF WARMER
AIR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE INTO THE M30S MONDAY, INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MIN TEMPS WILL EXPERIENCE A SIMILAR TREND WITH TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT WARMING INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED
NW FLOW ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND
BACK INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH ONLY EXCEPTION
AT KSLK HAVING CHANCE FOR ICE CRYSTALS FORMING AND DETERIORATING
VSBYS TO MVFR. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FROM 08Z-10Z. OTHERWISE,
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION KEEPS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
REGION WITH WINDS OF 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID DAY. KMSS WILL
DEVELOP INCREASING GUSTS UP TO 20KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN SW FLOW.
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING
HOURS.
OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
O6Z SATURDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.
06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM


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