Skip Navigation Linksweather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homep
age National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go
to the NWS homepage
Weather Forecast Office
Search 
   
Area Forecast Discussion
Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9][-10]
[-11][-12][-13][-14][-15][-16][-17][-18][-19][-20]
[-21][-22][-23][-24][-25][-26][-27][-28][-29][-30]
[-31][-32][-33][-34][-35][-36][-37][-38][-39][-40]
[-41][-42][-43][-44][-45][-46][-47][-48][-49][-50]
[-51][-52][-53][-54][-55][-56][-57][-58][-59][-60]
[-61][-62][-63][-64][-65][-66][-67][-68][-69][-70]
[-71][-72][-73][-74][-75][-76][-77][-78][-79][-80]
[-81][-82][-83][-84][-85][-86][-87][-88][-89][-90]
[-91][-92][-93][-94][-95][-96][-97][-98][-99][-100]
[-101][-102][-103][-104][-105][-106][-107][-108][-109][-110]
[-111][-112][-113][-114][-115][-116][-117][-118][-119][-120]
[-121][-122][-123][-124][-125][-126][-127][-128][-129][-130]
[-131][-132][-133][-134][-135][-136][-137][-138][-139][-140]
[-141][-142][-143][-144][-145][-146][-147][-148][-149][-150]
[-151][-152][-153][-154][-155][-156][-157][-158][-159][-160]
[-161][-162][-163][-164][-165][-166][-167][-168][-169][-170]
[-171][-172][-173][-174][-175][-176][-177][-178][-179][-180]
[-181][-182][-183]

Links in the discussion text will open a small browser window.
A Weather Glossary is Available
Comments/Feedback on Presentation



000
FXUS61 KBTV 200552
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1226 AM EST SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AS
OF THE 900 PM HOUR. SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR IN MUCH OF THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NC/NE
VT AND EXPECT THIS SLOW CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT GRADUALLY ERODES LINGERING STRATUS AREA.
AS A RESULT OF THE CLEARING SOME NORTHERN LOCALES ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING OR HAVE REACHED FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SO THIS
PREDICATED AN ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD IN THIS REGARD. LOOKING AT
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE NOTHING REALLY CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS
ALL THAT WELL...FAIRLY TYPICAL UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS. THUS LEANED
TOWARD LATEST MET MOS GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD
BY A FEW DEGREES WHICH AT LEAST TRENDS VALUES IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK OVERNIGHT THEN IMPROVING AFTER
10Z. MVFR TRENDING VFR AT MPV OVERNIGHT. AT REST OF
SITES...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS.
SOME MID CLOUDS RETURN TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.
12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO


    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities