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FXUS61 KBTV 011135
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
735 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016
An area of low pressure will drift northeast toward the Saint
Lawrence Valley this weekend with cloudy skies and occasional
light rain showers anticipated over our region. The clouds and
associated light precipitation will keep temperatures mainly in
the 50s to lower 60s with light winds. A slow warming and drying
trend is anticipated by midweek as high pressure develops.
As of 731 AM EDT Saturday...Minor update to fine tune pops based
on current radar data...which continues to show very light rain
across our central/northern vt mountains. Obs show only very light
amounts with values ranging from a trace to 0.05" overnight.
Thinking periods of light showers will continue throughout the
day...with greatest concentration of showers over our
central/eastern sections...where pops are likely. Otherwise...with
plenty of clouds temps will slowly climb into the 50s to near 60f.
Water vapor continues to show a deep closed cyclonic circulation
over the Ohio Valley with mid level ridge axis over central Maine.
The battle between deep layer moisture advecting north and very
dry air associated with ridge of high pres continues across our
region through tonight...making for a challenging pop/qpf
forecast. Radar shows bands of light rain lifting from south to
north across our region...but overall qpf has been very
light...with most precip not reaching the ground. PW analysis
shows a sharp north to south moisture gradient across our
region...with Albany 00z sounding having a pw value of 1.63". This
deeper moisture will advect toward our central/southern cwa southerly mid/upper level flow develops. This increase
moisture...combined with several weak embedded 5h vorts and
favorable upper level divergence wind pattern between upper level
low and high will produce periodic on and off light showers across
our region. I have mention high chance to low likely pops with
greatest qpf and highest pops across the Dacks into the southeast
upslope regions of the southern Green Mountains. Qpf values
through tonight will range between 0.10 and 0.25 in these
locations with lighter amounts further north. Today...areas of low
clouds and drizzle are possible as soundings show increasing rh
fields associated with south to southeast flow...advecting in
deeper Atlantic moisture. Temps will remain nearly steady most of
the day with highs ranging from the upper 40s mountains to lower
60s Champlain Valley and parts of the Saint Lawrence Valley.
Expect highs only near 50f across southern VT...especially higher
terrain near Ludlow/Rochester due to the persistent clouds and
light precip. Little change in temps overnight with lows ranging
from the mid 40s to mid 50s.
As of 405 AM EDT Saturday...Overall very little change from the
previous forecast thinking for the short term period as the North
Country will continue to be dominated by a very slow moving upper
level low shifting from around Lake Erie early Sunday morning to
southern New England by Monday evening. Over this time, the system
generally weakens as it runs into lingering weak subsidence over
eastern Canada, but continues to stream Atlantic moisture
northward into the forecast area. The challenge remains
forecasting if/when/where precipitation occurs as forcing is weak
with no real surface boundary or distinct shortwaves aloft to work
with. Much like the previous forecaster, thinking is that neither
day will be a washout, but we`ll see on and off light showers
through the period, with the best chance for the most areal
coverage coming Sunday night into Monday morning as the low
traverses the forecast area. With plenty of cloud cover around,
and pretty light boundary layer flow, temps through the period
should be on the mild side of normal for early October. Looking at
highs mainly in the 60s, with lows Sunday night upper 40s to mid
As of 405 AM EDT Saturday...After plaguing portions of the
eastern CONUS for nearly a week, the aforementioned upper low
finally kicks east off the New England coast Monday night as
strong surface high pressure digs southeastward from eastern
Canada. Aloft the pattern becomes highly amplified with a deep
trough settling over the west, and a large upper ridge in the
east. The result will be a period of generally dry conditions with
clear skies and larger diurnal temperature ranges (milder than
normal highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and cooler but seasonable
lows 40s to low 50s) through at least Thursday. Throughout the
week we`ll be keeping a close eye on how hurricane Matthew
evolves, and how it might affect the North Country, if at all
towards the end of the week. The main global models of the GFS and
ECMWF currently continue to depict very different solutions, and
as always we default to the National Hurricane Center`s expertise
on the track, which only goes out 5 days at this point. In short,
stay tuned.
.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Mainly vfr conditions today...with areas of
light rain impacting the taf sites. A period of mvfr cigs/vis is
possible at mpv/rut as deeper moisture moves into the region on
southerly flow. Otherwise...given very dry surface
conditions...expect most precip to fall as virga with no
restriction to surface vis. Soundings show low level moisture
increasing by Saturday evening associated with southeast to
easterly flow...which eventually will produce a mvfr cigs deck at
mpv/slk...with occasional mvfr cigs at rutland/btv. Winds will
remain from the southeast at Rut and northeast at MSS with speeds
between 5 and 15 knots.
Outlook 12Z Sunday through Tuesday... Areas of mvfr cigs/vis
possible overnight Saturday into Sunday with occasional light rain
showers. Mainly vfr conditions prevail on Sunday into
Monday...with building high pres anticipated for midweek. Some
patchy fog will be possible on Monday Night into Tuesday with ifr
conditions at mpv/slk.
LONG TERM...Lahiff

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