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000
FXUS61 KBTV 260542
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
142 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS AND HIGHER
SUMMIT SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 951 PM EDT SATURDAY...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MODERATE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXITING ACROSS FAR EASTERN
VERMONT AT 0145Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE LOW- LEVEL FLOW HAS
TURNED SW-W WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. FOLLOWING A LULL OF
SEVERAL HOURS...EXPECTATION IS FOR STRATUS TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH TRAILING UPR LOW AND MORE NWLY FLOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AS FLOW TRENDS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT LATER
TONIGHT...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT OR SO AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AS
WELL. THUS...ANY OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO SNOW AT THE SUMMIT LEVEL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW. LOWS FROM THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S BELOW THE 2000 FT LEVEL. MAY SEE A DUSTING TO AN
INCH OF SNOW BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS. IN THE VALLEYS
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT...GENERALLY DRY WITH A BRIEF SPRINKLE
OR TWO POSSIBLE. THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED W-NW SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL TO NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 39-44F AT ELEVATIONS BELOW
1000 FEET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WE
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SUMMITS.
FLOW WILL BECOME BLOCKED OVER TIME SUCH THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE ABOVE AROUND 2500 FT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING MONDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
REGION UP THROUGH CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS ALLOWS FOR UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ALONG
WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AS WELL. THE RESULT WILL BE DIMINISHED
NORTHWEST FLOW. STILL SOME LINGERING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE A SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. SOME CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
LATE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AREA
UNDER VERTICALLY STACKED RIDGE FROM SURFACE UP THROUGH 500 MB.
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY TUES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF NEXT LOW. 850 MB TEMPS MAX OUT AROUND +12C
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BUMPED UP MAX FORECASTS A BIT, BUT 850
TEMPS COULD SUPPORT TEMPS EVEN WARMER THAN THE 60S ALREADY
FORECAST...WILL NEED TO WATCH TO SEE IF TREND PERSISTS.
TIMING FOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING STILL ON TRACK. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...FOR A QUICK HIT OF
RAINFALL AT FROPA. LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY/NORTHWEST TO
BEGIN COLD AIR ADVECTION IN EARNEST. TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD
THROUGH REST OF EXTENDED PERIOD TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH
WEST TO NW FLOW AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL GET SOME TERRAIN
INFLUENCED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATE IN THE EXTENDED TOWARDS SATURDAY MODELS BRING DEEP TROUGH
INTO THE EASTERN US WITH CUT OFF LOW SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. MODELS DIFFER WITH THIS FEATURE AS GFS KEEPS IT MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVING EAST IN NORTHERN STREAM...WHILE ECMWF
DIGS IT FURTHER SOUTH. ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD GFS SOLUTION
BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z RUNS...AND GIVEN THIS TREND PUTTING MORE WEIGHT
ON THE GFS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. POPS COME UP TO CHANCE
CATEGORY LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. PRECIP TYPE TO
START OFF AS RAIN ON FRIDAY THEN AS TEMPERATURES COOL FRIDAY NIGHT
CHANGE TO SNOW DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION
WILL TREND TOWARDS MVFR AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
SECONDARY FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP CIGS VFR AT KPBG/KBTV
BUT ELSEWHERE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 10-13Z. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
SHIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER ABOUT 10Z...AND INTO VERMONT
AFTER 13Z LASTING JUST A FEW HOURS AT KMSS BUT LONGER AT
KSLK/KMPV/KRUT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW CAUSING PRECIP TO BECOME MORE
TERRAIN-ORIENTED.SOUTHWESTERLY WIND OF 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT TURN
WEST/NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z SUNDAY INCREASING TO 08-15KTS...WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MONDAY - 12Z MONDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONTINUES
ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING LOWER CEILINGS AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN
SHOWERS.
12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z TUESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
18Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR CIGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF


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