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000
FXUS61 KBTV 181754
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
154 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 123 PM EDT FRIDAY...IT`S A LOVELY SPRING AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH TEMPS JUST ABOUT 50 DEGREES OR WARMER UNDER
FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH SCT-BKN CIRRUS DECK. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
EASTWARD INTO VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY!
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 444 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY
CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW...WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND NO MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY MORNING. FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ON SATURDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LINGERING
THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT ENDED THERE EVEN BY
18Z. COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...KEEPING
SATURDAY COLDER THAN TODAY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD
WITH TEMPS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY BUT WARMER AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
EASTWARD AND RETURN FLOW INCREASES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT FRIDAY...
A SHOWERY PERIOD IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY TUE-WED NEXT WEEK AS
PATTERN AMPLIFIES NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A DIGGING LONG WAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION SO
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS GENERAL
SOLUTION, BUT ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF DIGGING AND
EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST ON WED
AND HOW FAST IT PULLS AWAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET MONDAY UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MAY BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
AREA. THIS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWER TO NORTHERN AREAS ON
MONDAY SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE POP THERE. WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +4C
SHOULD HAVE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
ON TUESDAY THE TROF REALLY DIGS IN WITH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST US. COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN AS THE SLOW
SLIDES EAST BUT TUES EVENING. TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE THE HIGHEST POP OF THE PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS
WILL BE 55 TO 60 ON TUE BEFORE COOLING OFF INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S AT NIGHT.
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THIS LOW CONSOLIDATES SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST PUTTING OUR REGION INTO A COOLER AND MOIST
NORTHERLY FLOW. STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND AS IT DOES PULLS EVEN
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION SO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING EARLY THU WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOW 40S.
THURSDAY SHOULD FEATURE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS 55 TO 60 AS THE
UPPER TROF AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST AWAY FROM US AND RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WITH CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. EXPECTING
MAINLY SPRINKLES WITH THIS COLD FRONT AS LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT 17Z FRIDAY SHOWING A LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECTING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY
TIL 14Z SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SATURDAY TO 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...WGH



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