Skip Navigation Linksweather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homep
age National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go
to the NWS homepage
Weather Forecast Office
Search 
   
Area Forecast Discussion
Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9][-10]
[-11][-12][-13][-14][-15][-16][-17][-18][-19][-20]
[-21][-22][-23][-24][-25][-26][-27][-28][-29][-30]
[-31][-32][-33][-34][-35][-36][-37][-38][-39][-40]
[-41][-42][-43][-44][-45][-46][-47][-48][-49][-50]
[-51][-52][-53][-54][-55][-56][-57][-58][-59][-60]
[-61][-62][-63][-64][-65][-66][-67][-68][-69][-70]
[-71][-72][-73][-74][-75][-76][-77][-78][-79][-80]
[-81][-82][-83][-84][-85][-86][-87][-88][-89][-90]
[-91][-92][-93][-94][-95][-96][-97][-98][-99][-100]
[-101][-102][-103][-104][-105][-106][-107][-108][-109][-110]
[-111][-112][-113][-114][-115][-116][-117][-118][-119][-120]
[-121][-122][-123][-124][-125][-126][-127][-128][-129][-130]
[-131][-132][-133][-134][-135][-136][-137][-138][-139][-140]
[-141][-142][-143][-144][-145][-146][-147][-148][-149][-150]
[-151][-152][-153][-154][-155][-156][-157][-158][-159][-160]
[-161][-162][-163][-164][-165][-166][-167][-168][-169][-170]
[-171][-172][-173][-174][-175][-176][-177][-178][-179][-180]
[-181][-182][-183][-184][-185][-186][-187][-188][-189][-190]
[-191][-192][-193][-194][-195][-196][-197][-198][-199][-200]
[-201][-202][-203][-204][-205][-206][-207][-208][-209][-210]
[-211][-212][-213][-214][-215][-216][-217][-218][-219][-220]
[-221][-222][-223][-224][-225][-226][-227][-228][-229][-230]
[-231][-232][-233][-234][-235][-236][-237][-238][-239][-240]
[-241][-242][-243][-244][-245][-246][-247][-248][-249][-250]
[-251][-252][-253][-254][-255][-256][-257][-258][-259][-260]
[-261][-262][-263][-264][-265][-266]

Links in the discussion text will open a small browser window.
A Weather Glossary is Available
Comments/Feedback on Presentation



000
FXUS61 KBTV 032330
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
730 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN OF A DRIER AIRMASS AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE OVERALL TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE VERY
WARM...MODERATELY HUMID...AND QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LATE IN THE WEEK NEXT WEEK SEEMS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT THURSDAY...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FILTER
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS OF 700 PM, WITH AN OBSERVED
DEWPOINT VALUE OF 56F AT KBTV AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. EXPECT THIS
GENERAL TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND A MORE PLEASANT AIRMASS (ALBEIT
TEMPORARILY) BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS ALL THIS COVERED QUITE WELL AS SKIES TREND MAINLY
CLEAR BY LATER THIS EVENING ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED
LOCALES. THUS ONLY NOISE-LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY T/TD/SKY DATA
WERE NEEDED TO KEEP CURRENT TRENDS IN LINE. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
IS WELL TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER THE DRY AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO ADVANCE
AND WE ARE STILL HOLDING ON TO DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE REGION. UPSTREAM OBS IN CENTRAL QUEBEC ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE MID TO LOW 50S AND EXPECT THAT AIR TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION ANTICIPATE A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND THUS A RETURN OF RADIATIONAL FOG
OVERNIGHT AS THE TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID 50S THIS EVENING.
CROSSOVER TEMPS ARE ALL IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. EVEN AS THE DRY AIR MOVES IN THOUGH I ANTICIPATE
THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO SEE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FOG AT LEAST ONE ADDITIONAL EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BUT BY 05-06Z EXPECT THEM TO DECOUPLE ENOUGH WITH LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE RIDGE RETURNS ON FRIDAY AFTER
MARGINALLY BREAKING DOWN DUE TO THE WEAK FRONT TODAY. THE
RESULTING WEATHER WILL BE QUIET WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO
BRING MARGINAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. EVEN SO TEMPS WILL STILL BE
RUNNING 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RUNNING IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. FRIDAY NIGHT WE
COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL EVENING OF LIGHT MIST AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
AS WE ARE IN THE CLIMATOLOGY FAVOURED FOG TIME PERIOD.
SATURDAY THE RIDGE STARTS TO DRIFT SOUTH AND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
AMPLIFIES EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY TO START THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE MID 80S. IT SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER AS DEW POINTS
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE A QUIET AND SUNNY DAY TO START
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH FEATURES THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY...RIDGE ALOFT IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH SFC
HIGH PRES MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE. EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 15C...SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR
80F MTN TOWNS TO M/U 80S WARMER VALLEYS. ON MONDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED
5H VORT TRAVELS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT BEST 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP FCST DRY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMBING ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO. SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WARMER
VALLEYS AND LOWER 80S MTNS. HAVE NOTED SOME DIFFERENCE WITH
INITIAL 5H VORT AND WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROF ON TUES ACROSS OUR CWA.
GFS SHOWS BETTER RIBBON OF MOISTURE AND SOME VERY LIGHT QPF ON
TUESDAY...WHILE ECMWF HOLDS STRONG RIDGE FIRM ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND DEEP DRY
LAYER IN PLACE...THINKING SYSTEM FOR TUES WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAKEN BEFORE HAVING MUCH IMPACT OVER OUR AREA. BY
WEDS/THURS...MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT THRU OUR CWA. ONCE AGAIN...BETTER
DYNAMICS WITH 5H VORTICITY WILL BE LIFTING NW OF OUR CWA...WITH
JUST A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE. GIVEN PROGGED MOISTURE FIELDS
AND SYSTEM LIFTING NW...INSTEAD OF DIGGING SE...QPF WINDOW
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL BE SHORT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS WEDS
INTO THURS...WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. EXPECT SOME HUMIDITY TO RETURN BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE CIGS AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL VT INTO PARTS OF ESSEX COUNTY NY. BEST CHANCE OF A
SHOWER/STORM WILL BE ACROSS MPV/RUT WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE. MVFR
CIGS AT MSS/BTV SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY WITH GENERAL VFR EXPECTED AT
ALL SITES BY 20Z THIS AFTN. TONIGHT FOCUS WILL BE AREAL COVERAGE
OF FOG. A FEW ITEMS THAT ARE DIFFERENT INCLUDE, STRONGER BL WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS...EVEN UP TO 20 KNOTS NEAR MSS...AND DRIER
DEWPOINTS DEVELOPING ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BTWN 06-07 AT MPV/SLK AND
TEMPO AT BTV ASSOCIATED WITH NE FLOW. LACK OF BL MOISTURE WILL
LIMIT FOG/BR AT BTV...GROUND IS DRY. STRONG BL WINDS WILL LIMIT
FOG/BR PRODUCTION AT MSS AND RUT.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR FOG/BR AND LIFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV BTWN
06Z-12Z EACH MORNING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...JMG/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER


    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities