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FXUS61 KBTV 151455
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1055 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018
A cold front across southern Quebec and Ontario will settle
southward across the North Country today. Combined with a mid-level
disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes, periods of showers are
expected across the region today, with a chance of thunderstorms,
mainly across south-central Vermont. Cooler and drier conditions
return tonight with light north winds. Will see areas of fog tonight
as skies become mostly clear. Dry and seasonable weather conditions
are expected Wednesday through Friday. Additional rain is expected
to accompany a warm front during the day Saturday.
As of 1055 AM EDT Tuesday...Minor updates as of late morning to
lower high temperatures by 2-4 degrees across central/northern
counties given ambient cloud cover and persistent shower
activity. Also updated pops to show higher probabilities
(80-100%) for these areas per latest hi-res HRRR/BTV WRF output
- all and all relatively minor changes. Have a great day.
Prior discussion...
A cold front extended from north of Quebec City wswwd into the
northern Great Lakes region. Strong 300mb jet extends along and
north of the front, with right entrance region enhancing upper
tropospheric divergence and helping to drive convective storms
early this AM across Lake Erie and southeastern Ontario into srn
lower Michigan.
It`s a relatively warm pre-dawn period across the North Country.
South of the frontal bndry, south winds and mid-upper level
clouds overspreading the region from WSW-ENE are keeping
temperatures mainly in the 50s, though better mixing in the
Champlain Valley has BTV at 67F at 0730Z.
Overall expectation for today is that mid-upr level forcing
across the ern Great Lakes will shift enewd into our region this
morning, driving widespread clouds and numerous showers crossing
the nrn half of the CWA during the 12-18Z period...mainly
across nrn NY and nrn VT. There is some modest moistening of the
low- mid levels with PW values climbing to 1.2-1.4" per 00Z
NAM. Raised PoPs to 80-90% for light to moderate
showers...should see QPF mainly in the 0.25-0.50" range.
A bit further south, surface-based instability axis develops
with daytime heating from central PA newd into western New
England. South-central VT is on the northern fringe of the
instability, with SBCAPE values reaching 400-600 J/kg across
Rutland/Windsor counties around 18Z per NAM and 3km NAM- Nest.
As surface boundary settles southward across the North Country
this afternoon, will see increasing likelihood of some embedded
convective elements across across Windsor/Rutland/Orange
counties 18-22Z time frame. While activity is not expected to
become severe, dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning and brief
heavy rainfall will be possible. Included mention of this in the
morning Hazardous Weather Outlook for Rutland/Windsor/Orange
counties. Further north, will generally see showers ending once
front pushes thru the area around 18Z.
Abundant clouds will keep temperatures near seasonal averages
for mid-May, with highs today generally be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.
Light northerly flow and ridge axis building into nrn NY and VT
will bring drier air tonight with dewpoints dropping back into
the 40s. With the expected 0.25-0.50" rainfall today and
clearing skies/light winds tonight, anticipate areas of fog,
especially in the favored valleys. Overnight lows mainly in the
low-mid 40s, except as low as the mid 30s across the nrn
Adirondacks and far nern VT.
Once fog dissipates, should see mostly sunny conditions on
Wednesday with a return of southerly winds 10-15 mph.
Temperatures will moderate back into the low-mid 70s for highs.
PoPs NIL overnight thru Wednesday.
As of 338 AM EDT Tuesday...High pressure remains over the area for
Wednesday night into Thursday as dry weather continues. Seasonal
temperatures are expected with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s
and highs in the mid 60s to the lower 70s.
As of 338 AM EDT Tuesday...Thursday night into Friday will
continue to see dry weather with high pressure remaining over
the northeast United States. Models have slowed a bit as deeper
moisture looks to begin moving into the region Friday night into
early Saturday morning. Periods of rain showers are expected
across most of the region Saturday afternoon and into Sunday.
Plenty of cloud cover...precipitation...and deeper moisture will
result in daytime temperatures slightly below normal
temperatures for the weekend. Higher precipitable water values
are expected in this flow pattern and the idea of fairly
widespread rainfall totals of a half inch to an inch continues
to looks good. Deeper moisture pushes east Sunday night into
Monday for a return toward drier weather next week.
Through 12Z Wednesday...Periods of moderate rain showers
and MVFR conditions expected 12-18Z. May see brief intervals of
IFR with +RA. There is also a chance of a thunderstorm, mainly
for KRUT between 16-20Z where surface-based instability will be
greatest. Winds generally S-SW 6-10kts this morning, with a few
gusts to 20kts possible in gusty showers. Frontal zone shifts
sewd across the area with nwly wind shift expected 17-19Z (18Z
at BTV). Diminishing winds with weak high pressure building in
tonight. With clearing skies and wet ground, anticipate areas of
fog 03-12Z tonight. Currently carrying 3-4SM BR at SLK/MPV/RUT
after 02Z Wednesday...and will need to monitor for possible BR
or FG at the remaining TAF locations as well.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
SHORT TERM...Verasamy
LONG TERM...Verasamy

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