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000
FXUS61 KBTV 241737
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1237 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 PM EST MONDAY...WE/VE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS 18Z
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...GETTING SOME MODERATELY STRONG,
BUT HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPING WINDS 35-45 MPH ON THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS...A RESULT OF 850MB WINDS OF 65-70KTS
AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS QUITE STABLE FROM THE WARM FRONTAL RAINFALL THIS MORNING...AND
NOT SEEING MUCH LOW- LEVEL MIXING/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THIS
WILL CHANGE SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPS REACH NEAR 60F THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE GENERAL BREEZY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS TO 45 MPH IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERN THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT IS THAT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST...THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY 03-09Z...AS SHOWN BY NAM
AND LOCAL BTV- WRF MODELS. DURING TONIGHT...WE/LL SEE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND
40-50 MPH ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. WARM
FRONTAL RAINBAND IS QUICKLY EXITING...AND WE/LL SEE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AIDED BY GOOD LOW-
LEVEL MIXING OWING TO STRONG WIND FIELDS. HAVE BOOSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD INTO THE MID-UPR 60S FOR THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS. WILL BE RECORD/NEAR-RECORD HIGHS (RECORD IS 65F
AT BTV TODAY...SET IN 1999 AND 1931). CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF
SPRINKLES. THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE
BDNRY TONIGHT...SO POPS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
FOR LAKE INDUCED ACTIVITY. MAY SEE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES TOWARD
DAYBREAK TUESDAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY 40-45F
AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND DROPPING INTO THE
MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING
OF THE AIR COLUMN. RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE
PRESENCE FELT.
GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.
USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.
A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THIS
MORNING ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A
COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.
00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.
00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...SISSON

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