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000
FXUS61 KBTV 251951
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
351 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty downslope winds will continue into this evening,
especially across the southern and central western slopes of the
Green Mountains with isolated power outages possible. Steadier
rain will redevelop tonight and continue into Friday. The
upcoming weekend will feature a dry Saturday with some scattered
showers possible late Sunday into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 139 PM EDT Thursday...Wind advisory in effect till
Midnight for localized gusts to 50 mph along the central and
southern western slopes of the Green Mountains.
Rain showers will continue through about 06z then become more
stratiform as a larger slug of moisture moves over our forecast
area from 06z till about 10z. Deeper moisture and stronger lift
aid in spreading the widespread rain across the area. Low
pressure system will move along NY/NE coast overnight. Heaviest
QPF will fall during this time, generally around a quarter to a
half an inch of rain overnight. Temperatures will remain mild
overnight with min temps only in the 50s with plenty of clouds
and precip. By Friday morning the low pressure system will be
over Cape Cod and continue to move Northeastward into the Gulf
of Maine by 00z. Rain showers will continue through the day
Friday, though lighter than the overnight. Heaviest
precipitation for our forecast area will be over Eastern
Vermont, closest to the actual low center. Chances for
precipitation will diminish from west to east during the
afternoon hours. Maximum temperatures will be cool, generally in
the 50s across the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM EDT Thursday...
Vertically stacked low pressure system near Nova Scotia Friday
evening moves east and out to sea overnight Friday night. Some
lingering light rain showers or drizzle early will gradually dry
up from west to east with some gradual clearing by Sat morning.
Lows mainly in the 50s.
Saturday will see weak surface high pressure build in to start
the Memorial Day weekend. Partly cloudy skies and 850 temps of
8-10C will yield warmer temperatures with highs 70s. Lows in the
mid 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Thursday...
The long term starts out on Sunday with an upper level ridge over
the east coast with a developing light southwest flow at the surface
as weak high pressure moves out to sea east of New England.  850mb
temps are around 10-11C which should yield high temps in the 70s
perhaps upper 70s in the valleys.
As the ridge shifts east, cloud cover increases in the afternoon and
evening as an upper level low pressure system tracks west of the
Great Lakes with warm advection during the overnight hours into
early Memorial day with a period of showers. A weak cold front
Monday evening trough will swing through with shortwave energy,
bringing with it showers with perhaps a thunderstorm or two
with some marginal instability.
Tuesday through Thursday there will be on and off mainly afternoon
and evening showers as a second cold front and several post
frontal trofs swing through the region. Cold advection will
bring 850mb temps down from 8-10C on Tue to around 6C Wed and 4C
on Thu. The cold advection and daytime heating will contribute
to very weak instability and scattered showers. Corresponding
high temperatures will be start out in the 70s on Tue falling
back into the 60s Wed and Thu. Lows will in the upper 40s to
lower 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Aviation concerns will be gusty southeast
winds at Rutland today...followed by lowering cigs with some
mvfr conditions expected overnight. Localized gusts to 40 knots
possible at RUT between until 01z. Expect areas of moderate to
severe turbulence...especially near the terrain. Showery rain
will become more stratiform overnight across the area, then end
from west to east during the daytime hours Friday. generally
MVFR ceilings can be expected overnight, some periods of IFR in
heavier rain is likely especially as winds shift to the north
after 06z. Winds will be out of the North under 15 kts on
Friday.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Memorial Day: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VTZ011-017>019.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Sisson
LONG TERM...Sisson
AVIATION...Neiles


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