Skip Navigation Linksweather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homep
age National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go
to the NWS homepage
Weather Forecast Office
Search 
   
Area Forecast Discussion
Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9][-10]
[-11][-12][-13][-14][-15][-16][-17][-18][-19][-20]
[-21][-22][-23][-24][-25][-26][-27][-28][-29][-30]
[-31][-32][-33][-34][-35][-36][-37][-38][-39][-40]
[-41][-42][-43][-44][-45][-46][-47][-48][-49][-50]
[-51][-52][-53][-54][-55][-56][-57][-58][-59][-60]
[-61][-62][-63][-64][-65][-66][-67][-68][-69][-70]
[-71][-72][-73][-74][-75][-76][-77][-78][-79][-80]
[-81][-82][-83][-84][-85][-86][-87][-88][-89][-90]
[-91][-92][-93][-94][-95][-96][-97][-98][-99][-100]
[-101][-102][-103][-104][-105][-106][-107][-108][-109][-110]
[-111][-112][-113][-114][-115][-116][-117][-118][-119][-120]
[-121][-122][-123][-124][-125][-126][-127][-128][-129][-130]
[-131][-132][-133][-134][-135][-136][-137][-138][-139][-140]
[-141][-142][-143][-144][-145][-146][-147][-148][-149][-150]
[-151][-152][-153][-154][-155][-156][-157][-158][-159][-160]
[-161][-162][-163][-164][-165][-166][-167][-168][-169][-170]
[-171][-172][-173][-174][-175][-176][-177][-178][-179][-180]
[-181][-182][-183][-184][-185][-186][-187][-188][-189][-190]
[-191][-192][-193][-194][-195][-196][-197][-198][-199][-200]
[-201][-202][-203][-204][-205][-206][-207][-208][-209][-210]
[-211][-212][-213][-214][-215][-216][-217][-218][-219][-220]
[-221][-222][-223][-224][-225][-226][-227][-228][-229][-230]
[-231][-232][-233][-234][-235][-236][-237]

Links in the discussion text will open a small browser window.
A Weather Glossary is Available
Comments/Feedback on Presentation



000
FXUS61 KBTV 050609
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
209 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED POP FCST TO MATCH CRNT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO, INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND
BUMPED TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES. CRNT RADAR SHOWS BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
UPSTREAM OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
NORTHERN NY/VT THRU EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE DEEPER
PROTECTED VALLEYS AND WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60F.
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS NOW DIMINISHING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GRADUALLY DEPRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK.
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS ACCORDING TO
RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN
PARTS OF ESSEX AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS AREA OF SHOWERS
SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BUT THE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE
POPUP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AREAWIDE AS
UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS REGION. HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
WITH TODAYS RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER
VALLEYS. TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR
STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.
ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities