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000
FXUS61 KBTV 231936
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.
MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.
BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.
ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REAMINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.
00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG


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