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000
FXUS61 KBTV 271135
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.
TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.
00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

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