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000
FXUS61 KBTV 310804
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
404 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST ABOUT ON
THE VERMONT-NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. THUS
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA AND ANY SNOW SHOWERS
OVER VERMONT WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY WITH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THUS LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THE THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. LIFR AT MPV AND MVFR AT RUT AS THESE
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER AT SLK WITH
CEILINGS. OTHER SITES ARE ALL VFR NOW. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED.
OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.
12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES


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