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000
FXUS61 KCTP 051452
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1052 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1045 AM... CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING.
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD EAST FROM THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PA... BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL CLIMBED
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS OF 10 AM. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS IS
SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY ATTM BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECT MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. HAVE TWEAKED
POPS TO COVER FOR THE LATEST AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY... IE LIKELY POPS FOR THE LAURELS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID-SUSQ VALLEY WITH CHC POPS FARTHER NORTH AND
SOUTHEAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS ADVNACING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OHIO DUE TO SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SOME MOISTURE/THETA-E
CONVG. THE MESO MDLS BRING THIS INTO THE WRN/SWRN COUNTIES LATER
THIS MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR
THE SW. THINNER CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN THE EAST TO GET INTO
THE U70S AND MAYBE NEAR 80F AGAIN. BUT THE CLOUDIER/SHOWERY WX IN
THE SW WILL KEEP THEM IN THE U60S/L70S. STILL ABOVE NORMALS FOR
EARLY MAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WAVY BOUNDARY WAGGLES OVERHEAD FOR THE PERIOD. IT BECOMES EVEN
TOUGHER TO FIND IN THE PROGS BUT SEEMS LIKE IT GETS NUDGED FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WED EVENING TO END THE SHOWERS.
BIG MCS OVER THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY WILL TAKE A TRACK INTO THE
NRN OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY RIGHT ALONG THE NY
BORDER THIS EVENING. GOOD FORCING AND PWATS NEAR 1.25 INCHES WILL
MAKE SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN UP THERE. THE DILEMMA IS JUST HOW FAR
IT WILL GET INTO PA. SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED - ESP IN THE NORTH FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THEN...THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE OFF TO
THE EAST OF US AND A DECREASE IN POPS IS ON ORDER BY 2 OR 3 AM.
TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE IN OUR SRN TIER COS WED AM...AS
ALMOST ALL NUM GUID PLACES THE LOWEST PRESSURES THERE AND WINDS
ARE EASTERLY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOME DRYING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST /BACKDOOR HIGH PRESSURE?/ SHOULD
KEEP THE STABILITY HIGHER IN THE E/NERN HALF OF THE AREA. BUT SCT
SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE
AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.
LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME SHOWERS TODAY...NOT A LOT. LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE
ACTIVITY TRYS TO LIFT TO THE N AND W OF OUR AREA.
DID BRING CONDITIONS DOWN SOME TONIGHT...BUT DID NOT
RUSH IT.
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY IN
THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. ALTHOUGH
VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.
THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.
FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

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