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000
FXUS61 KCTP 301641
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1241 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...SETTING UP
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK. THE FIRST DAYS OF
SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLS THE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY...THE RETURN SW FLOW
WILL FRESHEN AND WE WILL SEE A PRETTY QUICK RISE IN THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY COMING UP
SLIGHTLY QUICKER THAN FORECAST.
CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE EAST. THOUGHT THESE MAY MIX OUT TO
SCT/BKN DECK TODAY...BUT NOW LOOKING LIKE THEY/LL HANG TOUGH WITH
DECK LIKELY LIFTING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLEST ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...ESP THE MID VALLEY FROM KIPT TO
KSEG. ELSEWHERE WITH SOME SUN...HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80.
BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE NEAR TERM WILL CENTER ON THE EXTENT OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE WARM FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS OF 1-2
STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL AND SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS PUSH
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5" INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN
EXCESS OF 2" OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF THE MOST HUMID AIR OF THE SUMMER
PAYS A LATE SEASON VISIT.
LATEST MODELS STILL INDICATING A BIT OF CAPE IN PLAY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SEEING A FEW SHOWERS POP UP ALONG THE MOISTURE
BOUNDARY EARLIER THIS MORNING SOLIDIFIES THE CASE TO KEEP ISOLATED
POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY
AFTER 2-3 PM/.
THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO
PILE INTO THE REGION...WITH INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS IN
THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. A RARE MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME
10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE
A BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.
WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PLACEMENT...AND WE
HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY IN RECENT DAYS SO WILL NOT TALK UP ANY KIND
OF FLOODING THREAT AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
SUPPLY SOME OF THE MORE OPPRESSIVE READINGS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
THIS COOL SUMMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY ANY
NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SLIDING EAST THRU THE FLOW ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...PROVIDING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. OPERATIONAL
MODELS SHOW A FRONT FALLING APART OVER THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WHICH REALLY DOES LITTLE OR
NOTHING TO CHANGE THE AIRMASS.
A SECOND MORE IMPORTANT FRONT IS BROUGHT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID WEEK
SHOULD BEGIN A PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BUT ALSO
QUITE WARM AS WE SEE A RESURGENCE IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DETAILS IN THE UPPER
RIDGE DIFFER SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE GEFS AND THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF...BUT BOTH AGREE IN KEEPING HEIGHTS HIGH AND SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...MAKING FOR
WHAT WOULD BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF WARMER THAN
NORMAL READINGS WE WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS SUMMER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER DEPARTING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS SUSQ VALLEY FROM KIPT-KSEG-
KMDT INTO MID AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY RISING TO LOW VFR
LATE IN THE DAY. ACROSS THE WEST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT/MOISTURE BOUNDARY SLIDES SLOWLY
EASTWARD...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSS ACROSS WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN AFTER 2-3 PM.
THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. CIGS
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.
THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...RXR

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