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FXUS61 KCTP 280004
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
804 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Low pressure will move east of the area early tonight bringing and
end to the rain for most areas shortly after sunset. Scattered
light sprinkles or flurries could linger over the northwestern
mountains late tonight, otherwise dry weather can be expected late
tonight through Saturday as high pressure builds across the area.
Unseasonably warm conditions will return by Saturday with highs in
the 60s to mid 70s. The next cold front will bring a chance of
showers to the area Saturday night or Sunday.
Last bands of showers beginning to exit my southeast as low
pressure tracks east across New York. Clouds and cool
northwesterly breezes will linger behind the system overnight.
Some sprinkles or flurries may develop southeast of lake Erie over
northwest Pa later tonight as 850 mb temperatures fall to around
-4 or -5 C... however model forecast soundings show rapid drying
of the profile toward morning so we are not really expecting any
significant lake response with this system. Elsewhere clouds will
gradually lift overnight with some breaks developing east of the
mountains in the Susquehanna River Valley.
High pressure will build east across the area on Friday with
clearing early in the day east of the mountains and by afternoon
over the mountains. Gusty northwest winds will diminish during the
day as the high pressure builds over the area. Friday night will
be mainly clear with light winds under high pressure. Mild weather
will return on Saturday with 850 mb temperatures forecast to rise
back above +10 allowing surface temperatures to climb into the 60s
with 70s east of the mountains. The next front approaching from
the northwest may trigger a few showers over the northern
mountains late in the day, with showers spreading southeast across
the state Saturday night as the front drops south from the Great
Lakes toward Pennsylvania.
Models are in good agreement with a mild and reasonably quiet
weather pattern through the period. Showers are possible on Sunday
as a slow moving cold front sags south across the area. High
pressure will bring dry conditions with near seasonable
temperatures on Monday... highs will be mostly in the 50s with
some 60s in the southeast. High pressure over the southeast U.S.
will bring dry mild weather Tuesday through Wednesday with
temperatures returning to above normal levels. ECMWF/GFS and GEFS
are in good overall agreement with this pattern and confidence is
above normal.
The cold front is entering my eastern zones leading to widespread
IFR/MVFR conditions along with a few scattered showers. As the
front progresses east of the area later this evening, a gusty WNW
flow will develop.
The IFR/MVFR will improve to VFR east of the mountains at MDT and
LNS while MVFR conditions will tend to linger at UNV and AOO with
IFR/MVFR conditions persisting in the mountains at BFD and JST. A
few sprinkles or flurries could even occur at BFD overnight.
Conditions will improve to mostly MVFR at JST and BFD by Friday
afternoon with VFR elsewhere. A west-northwest wind will average
10-20 kt with a few higher gusts tonight continuing through Friday.
Sat...No sig wx expected.
Sun...Showers/low cigs possible, esp N and W.
Mon-Tue...No sig wx expected.
LONG TERM...Martin

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