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FXUS61 KCTP 180440
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1240 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018
A fair and mainly dry weekend across central Pennsylvania with
temperatures rebounding toward seasonal levels. There is the
potential for snow to kick off astronomical spring Monday night
into Tuesday across south central PA. Otherwise, the pattern
will continue to favor cooler than average temperatures and dry
weather through late week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Skies have cleared nicely this evening, and will remain so for
most areas overnight. A few lake clouds may sneak into the
northwest after midnight, but by and large mostly clear should
suffice there as well. It will be another cold night with lows
in the low/mid teens north to mid 20s south.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Sunday will be mostly sunny and dry with temperatures
rebounding to near seasonal averages. Mainly clear to partly
cloudy Sunday night with still chilly for this time of year in
the upper teens north to upper 20s south.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The main weather maker of concern is a low that slides across
the TN Valley and central Appalachians Mon night and moves off
the VA coast on Tuesday. Trend for this storm has been gradually
further south, which will keep biggest impacts along and south
of the Mason/Dixon line. The surface low itself looks to only
deepen by around 5mb as it reaches the coast, with the
associated upper wave opening up as it moves through. This keeps
with the other trend of lowering the threat of accumulating
snow or wintry mix even over the southern portion of CWA, which
matches with the WPC snowfall/ice forecasts. This time of year
with marginal temps, we generally need good precipitation rates
to keep it cold enough to be all snow and so far the indications
are that several days out, this might be hard to come by.
Below normal temps are forecast to persist though mid week with
a moderating trend toward normal readings for the end of the
week into next weekend.
Spring Equinox is Tuesday at 1215 pm EDT.
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions across the area at Midnight.
No big changes for the 06Z TAFS.
More information below.
High pressure and associated dry airmass building into Pennsylvania
will ensure VFR conditions and a diminishing breeze tonight.
Model data continues to support a high confidence of widespread
VFR conditions into Sunday. However...there is a chance of MVFR
stratocu spreading into northern Pa late Sunday evening
associated with the passage of a weak cold front.
Mon...No sig wx expected.
Tue...Snow likely southern Pa...mainly early AM.
Wed...AM light snow possible Laurel Highlands.
Thu...No sig wx expected.
The Spring (Vernal) Equinox will be at 12:15 PM on Tuesday,
March 20. Sunrise in State College, PA will be 7:14 AM and
sunset at 7:23 PM, for a total daylength of just over 12 hours.
LONG TERM...La Corte/RXR