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000
FXUS61 KCTP 292250
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
650 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...BRINGING SUNSHINE TODAY...WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY. A SLOW MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RIDGE BOWING TO THE EAST AS MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PA THIS EVENING. STILL A PLEASANT
EVENING DESPITE THE NIP IN THE AIR.
RIDGE IS FCST TO CONTINUE SLIDING SE TONIGHT. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
INTO WESTERN AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS MY
WESTERN HIGHLANDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP...WITH POPS
DROPPING OFF OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
FLOW. ENSEMBLE QPF OF .20" OR LESS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH ANY LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMS BEING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WEST AND NORTH. WARM SKIN
TEMPS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT A COUPLE OF DEG EITHER SIDE OF
30.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL CLEAR SERN AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ALL TOO FAMILIAR BLUSTERY AND CHILLY
WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE USUAL POST FRONTAL STRATOCU CEILINGS AND
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THAT USUALLY FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NW WILL RUN SOME 10-15DEG BELOW NORMAL.
MILDER READINGS OVER THE SE WILL ACTUALLY BE NOT TOO FAR FROM
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY MONDAY WILL BE
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW TRACKING ESEWD
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE UPPER OH VLY AND
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
NOTED THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD IN BOTH THE
TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM. THE 12Z NAM REMAINS
THE FARTHEST NORTH AND OUTSIDE THE ENSEMBLE LOW SPREAD. THE 12Z
GFS IS A NICE FIT/COMPROMISE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DETERMINISTIC
SPREAD...JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN THE SREF/GEFS MEANS. THE 00/12Z
ECMWF IS STILL ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HOWEVER IT
HAS ADJUSTED A BIT STRONGER VS. THE 00Z RUN. A MODEL BLEND FAVORS
A NARROW SWATH OF PCPN ALONG/NORTH OF THE SFC LOW STREAKING SEWD
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACRS THE NRN MID ATLC STATES ON TUES. THE
QUICK PROGRESSION AND LIMITED MSTR SHOULD KEEP QPF AMTS IN THE
0.10 TO 0.30 INCH RANGE WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
CONCERNING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND
MARGINAL LLVL TEMPS. THE GREATEST RISK IS STILL OVER NRN AREAS
ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL PA COULD SEE A LITTLE ACCUM GIVEN AN IDEAL SFC LOW TRACK.
MANY AREAS WILL LKLY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT WITH NO ACCUMULATION.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AROUND THE MIDWEEK BEFORE
THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE 12Z NAEFS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A WARMING TREND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM PLAINS/GREAT LAKES WITH FROPA
TIMING MOST LKLY ON FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS
SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
INTO EASTER WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO A FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
LOCAL RESTRICTIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUE INTO EARLY
WED...AS LOW DROPS SE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF CANADA.
OUTLOOK...
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW EARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF
WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.
THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WATSON/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...WATSON/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...WATSON/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...WATSON/JUNG


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