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000
FXUS61 KCTP 290213
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
913 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
TO PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT. IT WILL TURN MILDER BUT A BIT UNSETTLED
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER WEATHER ON TUESDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER WARMING TREND BEGINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT QPF WILL MEAN SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE AREA WILL
JUST SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ON SATURDAY WITH MILDER AIR ALOFT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SO WHILE
TEMPERATURES MODERATE IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH PATCHY AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG AND A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS. NORTHERN VALLEYS
COULD STILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE SAT EVENING. ELSEWHERE WILL MENTION THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES STEADILY RISE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING MIDNIGHT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD...FAST ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MILD
WEATHER...TEMPS WILL BE REACHING INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S BY
SUNDAY AND SEVERAL CHANCE AT WEAK...FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL FEATURE IN THE PERIOD.
A RELATIVELY WEAK TROF TRAVELS THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW...WILL BRING A
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THEIR TIMING. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPS BACK IN FOR TUESDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
ACROSS S CANADA. ANOTHER TROF WILL BRING A FRONT EAST FOR MID
WEEK...BUT HERE THE GFS/EC ARE LESS IN SYNC WITH THEIR TIMING AT
THIS POINT. LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST LATE
IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH INCREASINGLY SERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH END
OF THE HIGH...LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AT 21Z.
HOWEVER...STILL A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY IN AND AROUND
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AS KBFD JUST IMPROVED TO A SCATTERED
DECK AT 2800 FEET.
ANTICIPATING SOME WAA LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH...BRINGING SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO
KBFD...KJST...KUNV AND KIPT.
SLOW PROGRESSION OF WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WAA WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER...CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH A POTENTIAL
LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH.
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR POST FRONTAL...BUT CHANCE OF
CIG RESTRICTIONS IN THE NORTH AND WEST.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MORNING LIGHT SNOW WITH REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS MAINLY
NORTH. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...GENERALLY VFR...BUT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTH AND WEST.
MON...LOW CIGS/SHRA POSS...MAINLY W MTNS...GENERALLY VFR
ELSEWHERE.
TUE...MAINLY VFR.
WED...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN THE NORTH
AND WEST...WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG/ROSS

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