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000
FXUS61 KCTP 011524
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1124 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY SOME COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY LIGHT SHRA MOVING THRU THE CENTRAL MTNS AND THESE COULD BREAK
UP AS THEY TRY TO GET INTO THE MID/UPPER SUSQ. A GENERAL DOWNWARD
NUDGE HAS BEEN GIVEN TO THE POPS WITH THE NEW NAM AND OTHER NEAR-
TERM MDLS REALLY CATCHING ONTO THE LACK OF INSTABILTY IN THE LOCAL
AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. KEPT MENTIONS OF TS FOR NOW...BUT IT
MAY BE VARY SPARSE IF IT HAPPENS. THE SE WOULD BE THE MORE-
POSSIBLE LOCATION FOR TS.
PREV...
AFTER THESE FEW AREAS OF RAIN SLIDING THRU THE SE AND INTO THE
WEST-CENTRAL MOVE THRU...NOT MUCH CONVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS.
THERE IS A BREAK IN FORCING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS SOME THUNDER THEN. HAVE MAINTAINED SCT SHRA IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY SINCE SOME DISORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY POP UP.
PREV...
A LARGE SHIELD OF WARM ADVECTION GENERATED RAIN CONTINUES TO MARCH
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER RAIN IS MOVING
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE RT 219 CORRIDOR AT 09Z. RELATIVELY SMALL
AREAS OF MDT (TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN) RAIN WERE NOTED ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SCENT PENN WITH REFLECTIVITIES IN THE
30-40 DBZ ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC LOOP.
BY 12Z...THE BULK OF THE STEADIEST/HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS EAST...WITH PERHAPS A SECONDARY BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS WILL AVERAGE 3-4 TENTHS
OF AN INCH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND GENERALLY LESS
THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH WEST OF THE I-99/RT220 CORRIDOR.
RAINFALL TOTALS BY NOON WILL BE INTO THE 0.5 TO 1 INCH RANGE.
TEMPS WILL START THE DAY IN THE U40S TO AROUND 50F.
WE WILL LIKELY BE IN AN AREA OF NVA AND DRYING ALOFT FOR THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...AND THIS SHOULD BRING A
LULL IN THE SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES). HOWEVER...IF SOME BREAKS CAN DEVELOP AND SOME MEAGER
FORCING PASSES OVERHEAD...WE MAY BE ABLE TO POP A FEW TALL SHRA
/LOW- TOPPED TSRA BY AROUND 18-20Z.
SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...REACHING NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. BLENDED
OPER/ENS AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SOUTH TO
SEWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...AND WARMER/UNSTABLE AIR TO ITS WEST
SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. 850 MB LIFTED INDICES DROP TO BETWEEN -3 AND -5C WEST OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND SFC BASED CAPE CLIMBS TO BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SCTD TSRA. THE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL STREAM EAST OVER THE SHALLOW COOLER
AIRMASS (ENTRENCHED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION) BRINGING A LOWER CHC FOR TSRA.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON USING A CONSENSUS BLEND WILL RANGE FROM
ONLY NEAR 50F ACROSS THE NE MTNS /SULLIVAN COUNTY/...TO THE MID
60S ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A SECOND WAVE OF DECENT LIFT WILL COINCIDE WITH THE TRIPLE POINT
INCHING INTO CENTRAL PA SUNDAY EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
DRAPED NNW TO SSE CLOSE TO THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...AND LLVL SHEAR
COULD BE MAXIMIZED THERE. A FEW ROTATING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE RELATIVELY HIGHER INSTABILITY IN THAT SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND POSSIBILITY OF MIXING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP
CHC/SCT TS IN THE FCST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
ANOTHER FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS OR EVEN STEADY LIGHT TO MDT
RAIN SPREADS NE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
WITH A FEW TO SVRL TENTHS OCCURRING ON AVERAGE.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE U40S ACROSS THE EAST...TO THE
LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS MAIN WAVE LIFTS
INTO NEW ENGLAND. 48-HOUR FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS ENDING 00Z
TUESDAY ARE AROUND 1.00 NORTH TO 1.25 INCHES SOUTH...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES AND SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES
WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT.
THE FCST RAINFALL SHOULD HELP THE AREA RECOVER FROM /60-90+ DAY/
DEFICITS GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF -2.00 TO -4.00 INCHES. THE
LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR NOW HAS OVER HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA IN
ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS WITH A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE
DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS FOCUSED OVER BEDFORD COUNTY.
A PERIOD OF IMPROVING/DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURES
RIDES NE ALONG THE SLOW MOVING CFRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING MORE
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE SE HALF OF THE STATE. INTO THE MID OR LATE
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.
THE PATTERN TURNS QUITE UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL CHUNKS OF ENERGY DIG SE AND CARVE OUT A
DEEP...SLOW MOVING COLD TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND LLVL TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS OF PENN
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z EC/00Z
GFS AND GEFS. DID FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ON THE WED NIGHT-FRI PERIOD
WITH THE UPPER CLOSED LOW AND SURFACE LOW STACKING...WHICH WILL
ALSO BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST RAIN THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS LIKE A CLOUDY AND WET WEEK WITH PERIODS OF GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES VS. SEASONAL
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS GONE FOR ALL BUT UNV AND IPT. THIS IS CURRENTLY WELL-
HANDLED IN THE NEAR-TERM MDLS AND TERMINAL FCSTS.
PREV...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
AT ALL TAF STIES THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END LATE
THIS MORNING. THEN A WARM FRONT EXTENDING IN FROM THE SFC LOW IN
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRY TO LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS. HOWEVER
THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER SWRN/WRN PA. THE DRIER PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON COULD STILL HOLD SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS ALL OF THE
AREA.
THE MAIN THREAT AREA FOR TSRA IS IN THE VICINITY OF JST/AOO. A
SECOND WIDE AREA OF RAIN/LOW CIGS/VIS WILL PUSH ACROSS AS THE MAIN
SFC LOW PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DRIER
AIR WILL WORK IN FOR A VERY BRIEF TIME ON MONDAY. A WAVE RIDING
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY WILL
PROBABLY SPREAD MORE RAIN INTO THE SE HALF OF THE AREA MON
NIGHT/TUES.
OUTLOOK...
MON PM-TUE...RA POSS SE.
TUE PM...NO SIG WX.
WED...SHRA POSS.
THU...IFR POSS IN RA/FG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU


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