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000
FXUS61 KCTP 271208
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
808 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the region today. High pressure
will dominate for midweek. The high will move off the east coast
setting up a warmer and more humid airflow for the end of the
week. A cold front on Saturday will bring a brief break in the
humidity.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The line of showers, with a few strokes of lightning embedded
is working across my eastern zones as of 6 am. The showers are
out ahead of a diffuse cold front that the meso shows is still
out over central Ohio. There is very little airmass change, only
slightly cooler and drier.
Models have the front over central Pa by early afternoon and
east of my zones by nightfall. I followed ensembles and blended
MOS which confine the best chance of rain mainly over my
northern zones during the day. The southern extent is a low
confidence forecast.
High temps will be a little cooler than Monday, in the 60s to
lower 70s. It will average some 5 to 10 deg cooler than normal
for the first days of summer.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
Wednesday will be the only day of the forecast without at least
the mention of rain as the high slides east toward the coast.
Highs in the 70s to near 80 will still be several deg below
normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
By Thursday we are forecast to be under a broad ridge with
shortwave energy rippling along the southern extent of the
westerlies, mainly through the lower lakes up into NY and New
England. By the end of the week a new trough starts to carve
out into the Gr Lakes and the southerly flow ahead of it will
bring a return to the heat and humidity.
The pattern becoming more humid will bring a mention of showers
from Thursday into the weekend. A weak cold front is hinted at
for Saturday but the front is progged to be weak, so
temperatures don`t change much, just a bit of a break in the
humidity and perhaps a smaller chance for showers.
By Thursday the temps will be back above normal, and the warmer
than normal temps will continue into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak trough pushed through and brought a weak line of showers
through the region. Behind it is cooler dry air which will clear
out any reducing cigs. This lack of moisture with this system
should translate to a continuation of VFR conditions for much of
central Pa. Expect winds to mix down by 15Z with gusts upwards
of 20 mph possible. High pressure and associated dry air mass
will build into the region later Tuesday, accompanied by
widespread VFR conditions.
.OUTLOOK...
Wed...No sig wx expected.
Thu-Fri...Isolated PM tsra impacts poss, mainly northern Pa.
Sat...Scattered PM tsra impacts possible.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Ceru


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