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000
FXUS61 KCTP 301448
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1048 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM CANADA. THE FRONT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRIER
WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL NO ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR AS OF LATE MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS
AREAS OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. DEWPOINTS REGIONWIDE HAVE COME UP QUITE A BIT SINCE 24
HOURS AGO.
SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO SPARK
OFF FROM MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...STILL SUGGESTING A HIGH CAPE
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVORING PULSE TYPE DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS. SPC PAINTED MUCH OF PA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SE VALLEY...WHILE HIGH TEMPS STAY
CLOSER TO 80F OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST .
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE STATE FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW EARLY NIGHTTIME TSRA WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...WHILE
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE IN THE SCATTERED VARIETY IN THE SOUTH.
LOW TEMPS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ...THE
LOWER 60S FROM KJST TO KUNV AND KIPT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHEST POPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED FOR
THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS COLD FRONT
STALLS AND A WELL-DEFINED APPROX 1010 HPA TRACKS ENE ALONG IT.
THE WAVE IS PROGGED TO RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONT AND CROSS PENN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON /BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET/.
PERSISTENT FORCING AND RICH MOISTURE FEED WITH PW IN THE 1.33" TO
1.8" RANGE BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WE`VE
SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME /TO CENTRAL PA/. STRONGER 0-1KM SW TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850 MB AND WINDS WITH A VEERING PROFILE WILL
COMBINE WITH QUITE LOW LCLS TO ENHANCE SPC/S MARGINAL SVR WEATHER
THREAT.
CERTAINLY...THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT STATEMENT GIVEN
THAT WE`RE STARTING OUT MUCH DRIER THAN USUAL TO BEGIN.
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON COOLING
THINGS DOWN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA...WITH EVEN SOME SIGNIFICANT
DRYING POSSIBLE AS DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE 40S. TOO
EARLY TO GET HUNG UP ON THE DETAILS AS THEY WILL CHANGE...BUT AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A COUPLE DAYS OF CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY
WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH THE STALLED FRONT AND
FREQUENT SHOWERS AND CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS.
A SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINS BY TUESDAY AS RICH PW PLUME SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND SEVERAL DAYS OF COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND LOWER POPS APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TERMINALS ARE NOW VFR AFTER A FEW PATCHES OF EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND HAZE...AND WILL REMAIN SO INTO THE AFTERNOON.
LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUBBLE UP IN THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AIRSPACE TODAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND SHOULD CROSS INTO FAR NW PA BY EARLY
SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD
STALL THE FRONT OVER NRN PA SUNDAY WITH REDUCTIONS LIKELEY AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS. SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE VARIABLE
CONDITIONS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN/TSTMS.
TUE-WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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