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000
FXUS61 KCTP 210332
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1132 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL FILL IN
SLOWLY AS IT MOVES OVER THE STATE...THEN RE-FORMS JUST OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND KEEP IT DAMP AND SHOWERY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW ON THE EASTERN SHORE OF GEORGIAN BAY HAS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SSW THROUGH KCLE AND KCVG AT 02Z TUES.
A COMPACT...BUT RATHER POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS
WELL-DEFINED IN BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGION 88D REFL LOOP
JUST SW OF KPIT.
TSRA HAVE DIMINISHED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND HAVE BECOME CONFINED TO
SRN OHIO ATTM...WITHIN A POCKET OF 850-500MB LAPSE RATES ON THE
ORDER OF 6.5C/KM. SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PENN WILL
/WITH NARROW BANDS OF SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN PENN/ WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...AN INJECTION OF LLVL MOISTURE VIA A
SSE FLOW OFF THE CHESAPEAKE WILL COMBINE WITH ENHANCED LIFT
BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 SWRLY JET MAX...A WEAK
SFC/LEE TROUGH...AND INCREASING LLVL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF A
35 KTS SWRLY 850 MB JET TO BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN FROM MD
AND NRN VA.
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NW
MTNS /AND PERHAPS THE LAURELS/ WHERE UP TO 2 OR 3 TENTHS IS
POSSIBLE.
WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
THE PROB OF RAIN WAS MODIFIED A BIT FOR THE OVERNIGHT...WITH
80-100 POPS ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA...TRENDING TO HIGH
CHC/LOW LIKELY FOR THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS SHOULD
STAY RATHER MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER THE CLOUDS AND
INITIAL/LIGHT SRLY SFC WIND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOWERED PRESSURES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND BY TUES
NIGHT A DEEPER LOW WILL FORM NEAR ATLANTIC CITY. WILL NOT GAMBLE
AND WILL GO WITH THE VERY HIGH PROBABILITY FORECAST WHICH BY NO
CHANCE IS ALSO CONTINUITY. COOL BUT WET NRLY/WRLY FLOW AROUND THE
LOW WILL CREATE VERY CLOUDY AND DAMP WX OVER THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT /WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES
OF 6-6.5C/KM/ DURING THE DAY TUESDAY COULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PRIMARILY THE SUSQ VALLEY/.
CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE/RE CURRENTLY
SEEING IN SUPPORT OF THE TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.
DIURNAL TEMP RANGE TUES WILL BE JUST 8-12F IN MOST PLACES...WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP MAXES BELOW NORMALS.
8H TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE ZERO. BUT LATE TUES NIGHT/WED AM
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH
ANY RAIN SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT
MENTIONS OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR COULD
GO TO OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER
LOW...WHICH KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW...PROGGED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS OVERHEAD AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST /TO AROUND 550DM/ THEN PICK UP SOME SPEED
AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.
EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL BRING DETERIORATING
FLYING CONDS TO CENTRAL PA TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF LOWERING CIGS
AND SHOWERS. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW CIGS
AT KBFD. MDLS SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ASCENDING THE NW MTNS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE
AT KBFD OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU TUE AM...WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
TO NWRLY. THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL
PLACE KJST AT RISK FOR IFR CIGS BTWN 11Z-15Z. EXPECT RISING CIGS
EVERYWHERE BY AFTN...AS MODEST DIURNAL WARMING OCCURS WITHIN THE
SFC TO 1KM LAYER. BY AFTN...MDL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT
MVFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST...WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS FURTHER
EAST. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS PM SHRA AND EVEN A POSS
TSRA. ANY OF THESE SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF DIP TO IFR
VSBY.
SCT SHOWERS OF DIMINISHING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION TUE NIGHT...AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES THRU THE
AREA. HOWEVER...BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
LOW CIGS REDEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AT KBFD/KJST...THE RESULT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF THE SFC-1KM LAYER AND UPSLOPE FLOW. DOWNSLOPING NW
FLOW SHOULD YIELD MUCH MORE FAVORABLE CONDS FURTHER EAST.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

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