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000
FXUS61 KCTP 022337
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
737 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHRA IN THE SRN MTNS. THESE ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY
THE VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT NOTHING TO BE LEFT IN AN HOUR. BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER ERN PA SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
ADDED SOME FOG TO THE NRN VALLEYS UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND. ALL IS WELL. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PREV...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.
WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.
GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG...GIVEN HOW THINGS
WENT LAST NIGHT AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ALSO LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT AND FCST TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINT OR
LOWER...CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT 12-13Z ON FRIDAY...GIVEN
STRONG EARLY JULY SUN.
PRIOR TO THIS...STILL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG MD BORDER NEXT HOUR
OR SO.
SOME SHOWERS MADE IT TO NEAR UNV JUST BEFORE 6 PM. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWER WAS JUST SE OF BEDFORD.
WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.
AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATER SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PERHAPS A SHOWER
OR STORM NW REGIONS ON TUE...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTHERN
PA MONDAY INTO TUE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN

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