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000
FXUS61 KLWX 251848
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
248 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure near the South Carolina North Carolina border will
move slowly northeastward along the North Carolina coast through
this evening, and finally off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday.
A cold front will approach the region late Thursday and remain
nearby through the weekend. A stronger cold front will pass
through the region early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper level low and sfc low are stacked over eastern NC this
afternoon. A band of rain has been pivoting across the Mid-
Atlantic region today as the 850mb warm front pushes NW. Northeast
flow across the region has led to cool conditions today with temperatures
in the 50s. Temps and dewpts have been slowly climbing near southern
MD and the Tidewater region this afternoon with places reaching the
L60s.
The slow-moving storm system will track northward along the east
coast tonight. Winds slowly back to the north overnight with temps
in the 50s overnight. A mix of rain, drizzle and fog is expected
overnight keeping conditions damp with low clouds and low visibilities.

&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Coastal low pressure will be off the Ocean City MD coast
Wednesday morning. Rain will still be around the region in the
morning as wrap- around moisture moves around the storm system.
Winds will become NW Wednesday however dry air will take time
to move into the region. Clouds will diminish from west to east
throughout the day. Temps will climb to near 70 Wednesday.
Ridging is expected across the region Wed night and dry
conditions are expected. Low-level moisture is expected Wed
night and fog is likely into Thursday morning. Southerly flow
increases Thursday and temps rebound into the 80s by afternoon.
A cold front will cross the region Thursday night. Showers and a
few rumbles of thunder are possible.

&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front should slide across our region Friday before stalling
across central or eastern portions of Virginia later in the day then
inching northward as a weak warm front Friday night. There is a
slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the period with
high temperatures remaining on the warm side.
On Saturday, high pressure will be to our southeast with a front now
along the Mason-Dixon line. Temperatures will remain warm with a
slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly across the northern
half of our region.
By Sunday into Sunday night, the high to the southeast will break
down with the front meandering across the northern half of our
region. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will become more
prominant, mainly Sunday night into Monday due to the ridge breaking
down.
An increasing southerly wind will usher in warmer and more humid air
to help fuel showers and thunderstorms later Monday into Monday
evening. A strong cold front should works its way eastward across
the region Monday night.
Gusty westerly winds and drier and cooler air will filter into the
region Tuesday behind the cold front as high pressure builds in from
the west.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR conditions will continue through tonight as low-level moisture
from low pressure continues to influence the terminals. -RA and DZ
are expected with variable fog which may reduce conditions to LIFR
tonight. Uncertainty exists in the timing of reduced vsbys due to
FG overnight and therefore kept most terminals at 3SM overnight. IFR
conditions continue into Wed morning. Dry air will take time to
bring terminals to VFR Wed so thinking MVFR will likely stick around
for most of the morning. Winds begin as NE this afternoon and will
become NW by Wednesday.
Winds become S Wednesday night into Thursday. BR/FG expected
Wednesday night into Thursday morning and flight restrictions are
possible.
Vfr conditions Friday through Saturday. Mvfr conditions in any
isolated shower or thunderstorm. Mvfr to ifr conditions Saturday
night in shower or thunderstorm activity, mainly near MRB, IAD, BWI
and MTN terminals. Winds southwest 5 knots Friday and Friday night.
Winds southwest 5 to 10 knots Saturday and Saturday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Low pressure over eastern North Carolina this afternoon will weaken
as it moves up the Mid-Atlantic Coast through tonight. NE winds have
been diminishing from south to north across the waters this
afternoon. A SCA is in effect for all waters through tonight. The
pressure gradient will continue to weaken and SCA may need to be
canceled earlier than EXP.
A southerly flow will develop Wednesday and the southerly flow will
strengthen ahead of a cold front Thursday into Thursday night. A
Small Craft Advisory may be needed for portions of the waters
Thursday into Thursday night.
No marine hazards expected Friday through Saturday night. Winds
southwest 5 to 10 knots Friday and Friday night. Winds southwest
around 10 knots Saturday and Saturday night.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Easterly flow around low pressure to the south will continue to
promote persistent onshore flow over the waters through
today...which will keep tidal anamolies elevated. Minor tidal
flooding is expected at Straits Point/St. Mary`s county this
afternoon and a coastal flood advisory is in effect. Elevated water
levels will also cause the shoreline of King George and Charles
county to reach minor flood stage at Dahlgren.
The flow should gradually turn northerly tonight into Wednesday as
the low moves away from the area. Water levels should begin to
decrease during this time...though minor coastal flooding will
remain possible through tonights tide cycle at the most sensitive
sites.

&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ016.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MDZ017.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ057.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535-
     536.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HSK
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HSK/KLW
MARINE...HSK/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HSK


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