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000
NOUS75 KTFX 302225
ADMTFX

ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
335 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

TO ALL WFOS SURROUNDING WFO TFX
FM WFO TFX

WFO TFX WILL BE HOLDING A GOTOMEETING BRIEFING WITH OUR EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT COMMUNITY AND OTHER PARTNERS ON FRI OCT 31 2014 AT 11:00 AM.

BRIEFING TOPIC...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND

...REASONING FOR BRIEFING...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT WIDESPREAD, SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER WILL IMPACT NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. JOIN US TOMORROW, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 31ST
AT 11 AM MDT FOR DETAILS ON WHAT YOU CAN EXPECT WITH THIS STORM.

IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS...DO NOT HESITATE TO CALL OR
CHAT US.





000
NOUS75 KTFX 301803
ADMTFX

ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1131 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

TO ALL WFOS SURROUNDING WFO TFX
FM WFO TFX

WFO TFX HAS ISSUED A HEADS-UP EMAIL TO OUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
COMMUNITY AND OTHER PARTNERS.

EMAIL TOPIC...NWS GREAT FALLS: UPDATE - FALL STORM NOV 1-2 2014

...REASONING IN EMAIL...


OVERVIEW:
A STRONG FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MT WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW, HEAVY AT TIMES, SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT, HELENA, AND BOZEMAN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING,
AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT FALLS, CUT BANK,
HAVRE, AND LEWISTOWN AREAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION PERIOD SHOULD GRADUALLY END SUNDAY EVENING.


WEATHER:
AS OF THURSDAY MORNING, THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS, MAINLY ABOVE 5500 FEET. ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 14 INCHES.

FOR ELEVATIONS GENERALLY LOWER THAN 5500 FEET, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE RAIN CHANGES OVER TO SNOW. THE
LATEST FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SUNDAY AND NOON SUNDAY. THUS OVERALL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
1 TO 4 INCHES. HOWEVER, SHOULD THE RAIN CHANGE TO SNOW A BIT
EARLIER, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER.


IMPACTS:
VISIBILITIES COULD BE POOR DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN PASSES WHERE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW COULD ALSO
BE AN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS, WHILE 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR THOSE OUT RECREATING OR HUNTING THIS WEEKEND, THEY SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS BETWEEN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING.

THIS WILL BE A WET SNOWFALL, AND TREE OR POWER LINE DAMAGE COULD BE
POSSIBLE IF HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPS. TRAVEL THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL
BE A SLOW GO, WITH SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS POSSIBLE. FOR
LOWER ELEVATION ROADWAYS, BRIDGES WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED FIRST. BY
MONDAY MORNING, WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S WILL CAUSE ANY
WET ROADWAYS TO FREEZE OVER.


CONFIDENCE:
OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE MOUNTAINS WILL RECEIVE
HEAVY SNOWFALL, WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RECEIVE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD EXCEED CURRENT FORECAST NUMBERS
SHOULD THE RAIN CHANGE TO SNOW A BIT EARLIER. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY MONDAY
MORNING, CAUSING ANY WET ROADWAYS TO FREEZE OVER SUNDAY NIGHT.

BY CLICKING ON THE WEATHER STORY LINK BELOW, YOU WILL SEE OUR
FORECAST ON THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECAST FOR UPDATES AND ANY WATCHES,
WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES THAT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS FALL
STORM SYSTEM.

IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS...DO NOT HESITATE TO CALL OR
CHAT US.





000
NOUS75 KTFX 292023
ADMTFX

ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
143 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

TO ALL WFOS SURROUNDING WFO TFX
FM WFO TFX

WFO TFX HAS ISSUED A HEADS-UP EMAIL TO OUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
COMMUNITY AND OTHER PARTNERS.

EMAIL TOPIC...WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND

...REASONING IN EMAIL...

Overview: A storm system currently in the North Pacific will track
into the Western US early this weekend then move north through the
Northern Rockies and Montana. Rain and mountain snow is likely to
develop and spread northeast across the region Saturday night and
Sunday with snow levels initially around 6000 feet, lowering to the
plains and valley floors Sunday.

Impacts: Wet snow is expected over the mountains Saturday night and
Sunday with 3 to 8 inches of accumulation possible. Roadways over
mountains passes could become slushy and/or snow-covered and icy by
Sunday morning along with low visibilities. Snow accumulation is
also possible at lower elevations Sunday as cooler air moves into
the region, however temperatures at lower elevations will be near or
just above freezing, limiting the likelihood of snow accumulation on
roadways there.

Confidence: There is still some uncertainty in the track and
strength of this weather system, leading to lower confidence in the
specific location of highest precipitation amounts and snow
accumulations. Cold air associated with this system is also only
marginally supportive of snow at lower elevations where confidence
in snow amounts are lowest. However, a change from dry and mild to
much cooler and wetter conditions is likely this weekend with
specific details likely to become clearer by the end of this week.

IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS...DO NOT HESITATE TO CALL OR
CHAT US.





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